I call BS on the straw man notion of the government requiring 20 pct down payments. There is no need for them to do so, as private banks trying to protect themselves against falling knife collateral risk are completely up to the task of setting prudent down payment requirements all by themselves.
The down payments demanded by banks to buy homes have ballooned since the housing bust, forcing many people to rethink what they can afford and potentially shrinking the pool of eligible buyers.
As housing prices drop, mortgage lenders are requiring larger downpayments on homes. Kelsey Hubbard talks to WSJ’s Mitra Kalita about what the changes mean for consumers.
Last week, the Obama administration called for gradually raising down payments to a minimum of 10% on conventional loans, meaning those that can be bought or guaranteed by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And mortgage data show that private lenders are already pushing sharply higher the required down payments, mainly to mitigate their risk as home prices continue to fall.
The median down payment in nine major U.S. cities rose to 22% last year on properties purchased through conventional mortgages, according to an analysis for The Wall Street Journal by real-estate portal Zillow.com. That percentage doubled in three years and represents the highest median down payment since the data were first tracked in 1997.
The move to force home buyers to lay out more cash is driven mostly by banks, who have found that larger down payments discourage delinquencies by increasing the buyers’ exposure to loss and reducing the impact of declining prices. Many home buyers placed little, if anything, down during the boom.
A 2009 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis study concluded buyers who made smaller down payments were more likely to default during “unfavorable economic circumstances, such as a housing market slowdown or job loss.”
Higher borrowing costs and heftier down payments could send housing prices falling further. Last week, 30-year fixed mortgage rates rose to 5.05%, their highest level since April. “If there is a scenario where the government talks about raising down payments to 20% on conventional loans, you would absolutely crush the housing market,” said Peter Norden, chief executive of Real Estate Mortgage Network Inc., an Edison, N.J., brokerage.
…
“What will the banks do with their mortgage paper when the GSEs are unwound?”
whatever is put into place to replace them will buy the mortgages.
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Comment by Blue Skye
2011-02-16 07:10:08
The names will be changed to protect the innocent.
Comment by Jim A.
2011-02-16 09:06:41
Innocent?
Comment by polly
2011-02-16 09:40:27
Banks, as a rule, do not keep loans anymore. They can sell them to GSEs for securitizing or they can sell them to an investment bank for securitizing. If most of the loans cannot be purchased by the GSEs (either because they cease to exist or the volume of loans they are allowed to purchase is limited), then the rest of the loans will have to conform with the requirements the investment banks demand to securitize them.
The investment banks won’t buy them unless they are sure they can sell the bonds made out of the securitization pool. In order to make these bonds safe enough to sell, they are going to require a lot of protection. A few years ago, that protection was left to “real estate prices only go up.” New paradigm? Well, 20% downpayment and a loan of no more than 3 times confirmed income (less being better) seems a good start.
It isn’t back to the “character” component of the old loans where the bank was going to keep the loan on its books and wanted to know what sort of person you were, but those standards left people living in communities where bank managers didn’t live without much chance to prove themselves. This method, assuming it can ever settle in, will be good enough. You shouldn’t have to be friends with the bank manager to get a loan.
Comment by scdave
2011-02-16 10:14:32
loan of no more than 3 times confirmed income (less being better) seems a good start ??
Hmmm…So I need to make $200,000. per year to get a $600,000. loan ??
Comment by Jim A.
2011-02-16 10:31:00
Outside of California and Manhattan, that DOESN’T sound like crazytalk.
Comment by aNYCdj
2011-02-16 11:07:38
How about making it at least break even before you are approved?
No more of these condozes that state it costs $3300 to buy yet we will rent it to you for $2200 a month….
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2011-02-16 12:41:10
“Hmmm…So I need to make $200,000. per year to get a $600,000. loan ??”
Uhhh, yeah. If you don’t make $200,000 per year, you should not be shopping for $600k houses.
Comment by Spokaneman
2011-02-16 14:47:34
Residential real estate loans could become like CRE’s which typically are reset every 5 to 7 years in terms of collateral value, interest rates and credit qualification.
That will put a giant hitch in the residential real estate git-a-long, no doubt.
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2011-02-16 15:02:44
Maybe the banks want to get in on the income stream again as it once was, now that the volume and frequency of transactions is on the decline?
“What will the banks do with their mortgage paper when the GSEs are unwound?”
I tihink the plan is that by the time the GSEs are unwound, hyperinflation will have kicked in and the millions of crumbling, vacant houses can be sold for several million dollars apiece giving Wall Street some of the fattest profits and most legendary bonuses in the history of all crime.
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Comment by Professor Bear
2011-02-16 08:58:30
Ding ding ding!!!
We have a winner, folks!
Comment by In Colorado
2011-02-16 09:02:42
An optimist believes we live in the best of times…
A pessimist fears that to be true.
On the bright side the mortgage payment will become tiny.
Unfortunately buying food will require 120% of most household budgets.
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-02-16 09:41:09
“On the bright side the mortgage payment will become tiny.”
More on the bright side: Housing purchased with tiny mortgage payments will become increasingly affordable.
Comment by scdave
2011-02-16 10:19:16
Unfortunately buying food will require 120% of most household budgets ??
I could grow 100% of sustainable food necessary for my family in my backyard…
Comment by In Colorado
2011-02-16 12:29:33
Ever watch an old Brit Sitcom called “The Good Neighbors”?
Comment by Captain john
2011-02-16 14:17:05
The “Good Life”
Comment by In Colorado
2011-02-16 15:42:46
“The “Good Life””
That’s what it was in the UK. I believe, for some reason they renamed it when broadacast on PBS in the US.
Maybe you missed my post yesterday about FSAB extending the 2008 rule that lets anyone holding MBS paper gets to value it at 100% face value completely disconnected from the underlying real asset value. This is the way the new private mortgage market will be structured. At some point Moodys will give in and bless this stuff and it will be stuffed into pension plans and other ‘public’ funds and holdings.
Another HBB moment. “No one could see it coming.”
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Comment by polly
2011-02-16 09:42:49
They did? God, I knew I hated those guys for a reason. For how long? Is there any hope that they will require things to be stated both ways as the start of a transition to getting rid of it completely? Please?
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2011-02-16 14:40:01
Can I artificially inflate the value of my assets to pretend I’m much stronger than I am, and leverage that into greater power too?
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-02-16 19:32:19
“Can I artificially inflate the value of my assets to pretend I’m much stronger than I am,…”
“What will the banks do with their mortgage paper when the GSEs are unwound? ”
Fannie and Freddie aren’t going anywhere.
By Bethany McLean
Slate
“….the decrease in loan limits and the increase in down payments are “clearly not enough to ‘wind down Fannie and Freddie,’” Amherst Securities concluded in a recent report.
Another way to think about the plan is that the administration has thrown down a gauntlet. The Republicans can pick it up or not. Probably they won’t. (There’s a reason the GOP isn’t protesting the plan.) The housing market looks right now as though it will head downward again. No politician wants to be blamed for that. And as HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan has pointed out, a plunging housing market would increase Fannie and Freddie’s losses, because the homes they sold would be worth less, and because more borrowers would default on their mortgages.
Another obstacle to quick action is that if the government were to make it clear, right now, that it wanted Fannie and Freddie’s business to shrink, then the rating agencies might downgrade Fannie and Freddie’s debt. That would immediately throw the housing market into a tailspin, because Fannie and Freddie would no longer be able to raise money to guarantee new mortgages. In a recent report, Moody’s said that even if “political consensus [began] building around a plausible scenario that diminishes [Fannie and Freddie's] importance,” the government would have to explicitly guarantee Fannie and Freddie’s debt in order to maintain their current triple-A rating. Doing so would add trillions to an already out-of-control national debt.
Given this unappetizing platter of options, the Obama administration and Congress are likely to do nothing. At the Brookings Institution, one questioner asked Geithner how he would answer the charge that “this is never going to happen.” Geithner began: “Well, I think that’s a good question.”
I didn’t think I would ever do this, I have to out Prof Bear.
“Last week, the Obama administration called for gradually raising down payments to a minimum of 10% on conventional loans, meaning those that can be bought or guaranteed by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”
Obama’s not requiring the banks to do anything; he’s merely telling banks: If your paper doesn’t put down 10%, then F/F/gov won’t buy your paper. Sounds to me like Obama is also “completely up to the task of setting prudent down payment requirements.”
btw, whatever happened to the rumor that forensic accountants at F/F were rooting out fraudlent (liar) loans and forcing the banks buy those loans back? That’s a big chunk of the losses, imo, and the story never took off.
‘Obama is also “completely up to the task of setting prudent down payment requirements.”’
I don’t know; why are private banks requiring twice as much as F&F’s supposedly-prudent requirements? If 10% were truly adequate to cover the falling-knife collateral risk, wouldn’t private banks stop there, rather than potentially pricing themselves out of the market w/ 20%+ downpayment requirements?
I smell a subsidy in the taxpayer-covered risk of higher loss rates on mortgages with only 10% down. And then there is the FHA (3.5% downpayment requirement) — certainly there is a taxpayer-funded risk subsidy on those!
Finding the liar loans is long, tedious, slow work. It may be happening. It might not be. But even if it is happening, you are not going to hear about it for a long time. I wouldn’t expect the report to be out for another two or three years and even that would be a “what we have done so far” thing unless the loans they are looking at are restricted to very recent vintages.
Note the phrasing “gradually raising”. Does that mean over 10 years?
Over 5? Maybe 20. I don’t know. But here is a selling notice from a Realtor sales sheet that is typical of the houses i have been looking at for the past 2 years:
3 bedroom, 1 bath block home. Just minutes from shopping, restaraunts, entertainment and the Gulf. With lots of potential, this one won’t last. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! This property is approved for Home Path Renovation Mortgage.
Fannie and Freddie are still offering 3% down. And note the special “renovation” mortgage. That means 125% LTV loans are still in fashion because if the home needs repair, you can just finance the estimated costs. FANNIE and FREDDIE are the reason we can’t get the housing market back to earth.
I have CASH money, but it is no better than having none when you can borrow with 3% down. That’s my competition for buying.
I have 100k and another person has 3k. No difference. 3k buys 100k.
If the pool of buyers in the low end suddenly needed to have 20k, they game would be completely different. I don’t believe it will happen.
Ambigutity is the new way to concisely control and never be incorrect. The FED set the standard by keeping interest rates “at or near” zero for “an extended period of time”. Obama boasts of jobs “created or saved” by his policies. Accoutablilty is so yesterday. “The Recovery” runs on bullshit.
Not really. We bought a place in 1989 with 10% down. And before that we had a condo purchased with an FHA loan (which appreciated and provided the down payment for the house when we sold it.
That would instantly kill three birds with one stone:
1) Default rates on new mortgages would drop to around zero.
2) Credit ratings on debt issued to fund these new prudent lending standard mortgages could be legitimately rated AAA.
3) F&F would finally achieve their mission of providing affordable housing.
It also used to be wages and houses were closely matched. Example, in 1970 my father was making $20,000 a year and bought a $20,000 house. Take 20% of that (4,000) and it would be fairly easy to save up after a year or two for the DP.
I made $83,000 last year before taxes - even if I bought the junkiest of junky houses here in DMV (A fairly safe area with average schools) it would cost me around $300,000. So 20% is $60,000.
He has lived and currently lives in that house. His wages have increased over the past decades, while his $20,000 mortgage stayed the same. (No HELOCs or ReFis). He easily paid off his house, saved for retirement and retired at 56. Todays workers do not see the same increase in wages, but saw the housing prices skyrocket. I know this isn’t ‘Breaking News’ to some folks, but to older people it is a reminder how unlucky the younger generation has it.
As much as I’d like to put down as large of a DP as possible, saving the $60,000 is gonna take years. This is just my example (Paid off student loans, no car payments, no fancy electronics or vacations, no shopping sprees - just a simple lifestyle.)
I don’t think young folks have these opportunities any more. First, costs like insurance, taxes, food, fuel, fines and fees etc are magnitudes higher in proportion to income.
Second, there are NO good safe investments anymore that go up by a nice comfy 10% a year, and outside of government jobs, which is about to get a nasty shock where are the wage increases?
I write software and cannot get the wage I was paid 10 years ago as a result of off-shoring in the industry. Many others are impacted as well. Local service jobs are all taken by foreigners too, so not much opportunity there…
Third they have to pay to maintain the burden of the swelling ranks of seniors Medicare and Medicaid payments which are firmly on the logarithmic scale and are effectively going geometric.
I see a lost generation like Japan coming up and a whole lot of discontent!
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Comment by Carl Morris
2011-02-16 12:11:42
I write software and cannot get the wage I was paid 10 years ago as a result of off-shoring in the industry.
I haven’t seen that in my field…yet. The raises aren’t as big as they used to be, though. But writing the software is only part of the job, understanding how the system works is most of what you’re getting paid for in storage industry firmware. Guys who understand it way better than me make way more than I do.
Comment by Steve J
2011-02-16 12:24:29
He bought a house when he was 16? Cool!
Comment by In Colorado
2011-02-16 12:36:54
“I write software and cannot get the wage I was paid 10 years ago as a result of off-shoring in the industry.”
Ditto, especially when adjusted for inflation software engineer salaries have tumbled.
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-02-16 13:03:44
“I write software and cannot get the wage I was paid 10 years ago as a result of off-shoring in the industry.”
Ditto, especially when adjusted for inflation software engineer salaries have tumbled.
And here at my studio, I’m getting several calls a week from some Indian offshoring firm that will handle web design.
Well, I’m here to tell you that I’ve tried the offshoring route for some of my subcontracting. Okay for doing the simple stuff, but for anything that’s even a wee bit complicated, fuggedaboutit.
Not only is there a language barrier, there’s also an urgency barrier. They just don’t have the “I want it yesterday!” mentality that we have.
I write software and cannot get the wage I was paid 10 years ago as a result of off-shoring in the industry.
…understanding how the system works is most of what you’re getting paid for in storage industry firmware. Guys who understand it way better than me make way more than I do.
Ditto, especially when adjusted for inflation software engineer salaries have tumbled.
I think the difference here is in the types of “software” we’re talking about.
If we are talking about “Firmware”, which is embedded code at machine-level vs. scripting, then I can understand the discrepancy.
Firmware has to be written pretty much on-site (so it can be tested on the machines it is supposed to ship with) whereas web/database scripting (what I do) can be done from just about anywhere.
Writing firmware, native code and embedded programs (for things like automobile processors, cellphone chips, hard drive storage arrays) is a much more difficult (hence valuable) skill than writing web pages and database queries.
Me neither. I’m sure it depends on what kind of software you do, and what industry you’re in.
10 years ago I was just out of college, so my experience level has increased considerably which is reflected in my wages. But today I’m making almost 3x what I was making in 2000.
I’m sure there are those who were making “phat bank” due to the tech boom, though, who haven’t been able to get those kind of wages since. I didn’t go to a dot com company, so didn’t jump into those absurd salaries right out of the gate. As a result my company didn’t lay everyone off, too
However, there ARE companies that are paying developers well these days, and giving them raises. Google employees here locally got a 10% pay bump a few months ago. Devs at my company got a similar bump here recently as well.
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-02-16 13:35:04
Writing firmware, native code and embedded programs (for things like automobile processors, cellphone chips, hard drive storage arrays) is a much more difficult (hence valuable) skill than writing web pages and database queries.
And, speaking as someone who writes said web pages, I heartily agree with the above!
Comment by D
2011-02-16 13:36:09
> I write software and cannot get the wage I was paid 10 years ago as a result of off-shoring in the industry.
Today, I’m lucky to make $100k, equal to $76k in 2009 dollars. That’s a 50% decline in real purchasing power.
And the really sad thing is that I’m one of the lucky ones. Most people I know are either earning far less or have been out of a job for several years.
I know I produce a hell of a lot more than I earn. The world GDP would be a fraction of it’s value without software developers, but the greedy executives have completely sold off the US and European software industry just like they did the industrial complex. And the result is the largest brain drain in U.S. and European history.
If I had kids, I wouldn’t let them go into software for fear that there will be no jobs for them by the time they enter the job market. It’s pretty sad when you think about it. Software was the one last thing that the United States actually exported, and it was worth far more than Hollywood — the gaming subsector alone out-performed movies and tv combined, and that’s not even the lion’s share of the revenue.
Comment by In Colorado
2011-02-16 15:46:28
“If we are talking about “Firmware”, which is embedded code at machine-level vs. scripting, then I can understand the discrepancy.”
While India Inc. is best know for its Java coders, HP has been offshoring firmware work to Bangalore for some time now.
But I agree, firmware (real firmware, the stuff that involves real time processing) is harder to write that your run of the mill ASP.NET stuff.
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-02-16 19:33:27
“I write software and cannot get the wage I was paid 10 years ago as a result of off-shoring in the industry.”
10 years ago, the software industry was in a bubble. By its nature, a bubble pulls in lots of folks, and spits some fraction of them back out.
I know lots of people that work in the software industry, and I don’t know of any that are making less than they were 10 years ago. It’s not a random sample, of course, but it is the only data-set that I have.
I’m guessing that the effect you are reporting is localized, company-specific, or specific to a particular sub-segment.
“As much as I’d like to put down as large of a DP as possible, saving the $60,000 is gonna take years.”
This is why I think the Banking Clan will fight tooth and nail for either GSE’s to dump loans on or “gov’t guarantees” that don’t require 20% down.
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Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2011-02-16 17:03:38
The banking clan has no need to fight. They will simply summon their K Street bagmen and have them tell Wall Street’s Republicrat marionettes to fall into line. The banksters will get whatever they want, with taxpayers stuck with any liabilities.
Wages have NOT kept up with REAL inflation for the last 30 years.
And it’s not just the younger generation who is affected. Millions of boomers got just as screwed by offshoring.
This has little to do with generations and everything to do with Wall St. and specifically, the FIRE sector.
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Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2011-02-16 17:09:27
A convenient but erroneous statement, Ecofeco. The boomers have been selling future generations down the river for decades. “Give us ours now, give the bill to our grandchildren and their children” is their ethos. As as long as the boomers’ needs and wants have been met, they’ve turned a blind eye to rampant fraud by our financial and political elites.
This has EVERYTHING to do with generational abdication of duty and the cumulative greed and heedlessness of the boomers.
“It also used to be wages and houses were closely matched.”
4. Substantial down payment requirements traditionally helped keep housing prices in line with the incomes needed to repay the loans which financed purchases.
F+F would require mortgage insurance if the mortgage was for more than 80%. Of course in the height of the credit bubble, when everybody thought that mortgages were risk free banks would give you two mortgages, one for 80% and a second for the rest, because that was CHEAPER than insurance. Of course their policy ignored the fact that having the FIRST mortgate for 80% LTV is riskier than having the ONLY for 80%.
Many of us regarded the difference in cost between Mortgage Insurance and a second mortgage as evidence that the mortgage securitization process was mispricing the risk of default. At a fundamental level MBS pooling and Insurance do the same thing: they manage risk by aggregating it. With a single mortgage, you can never completely predict whether it will go bad, but when you have 100, you can be ensure that SOME of them will, and that MOST will not. With Insurance, you have the experts in the mortgage business examining individual mortgages before insuring them. With MBSs you have ignorant bond purchasers buying bonds based strickly on the ratings, and ratings agencies paid by the sellers after glancing at entire pools of mortgages. The idea that the bonds represent a better estimate of the risk of default than insurance is fancifal on the face of it.
PMI, Private Mortgage insurance, for any loans with less than 20% down. Work around with a Piggyback loan 80/15/5, 15 the bank gives you as a second mortgage at closing and you only have to bring 5% to the table. This was common at least in the 90s.
The sole purpose of this set up of seconds was to avoid the
the underwriting of Private Mortgage Insurance . The whole idea
was to avoid underwriting and down payments because the Middle men were just passing this junk to the Secondary market based on false ratings and risk weighing . This was a total violation of reasonable lending practice and proper weighing of risk .
People were willing to go on these low down teaser rate toxic adjustable loans for speculation purpose because it was the cheapest way to get into the speculation game .At some point in the housing boom
this is how loans were sold to people ,based on the cheapest way to get into the property ladder of real estate that can’t lose
and prices always goes up . Refinance when the teaser rate goes up and pull out cash ,or buy another cash cow . This was how real estate and loans were sold . Some people bought because they were convinced they would be priced out forever .
It was a RE Ponzi-scheme ,which usually doesn’t take place with
real estate because you have the check and balance of needing to qualify for the loan ,with a down payment ,along with it being a arms length transaction with a willing and able
borrower . By 2002 the prices had already exceeded affordable
for most places and the market should of came to a standstill
right than and even corrected somewhat ,based on real qualifying .Instead another 5 years of fake lending that pushed the prices to the moon . Those additional five years of over production and mis-allocation of funds to building homes not needed has produced a RE market that is nothing but a foreclosure market with millions in excess inventory .
The job of the financial industry is to allocated money correctly and not produce a fake bubble or a Ponzi-scheme ,especially regarding lending principals ,and certainly not mis-rate risk so you can get your hands on other peoples money . The Middlemen had no right to do what they did and it’s to bad the greedy or scared borrowers bought into the con job .
“The median down payment in nine major U.S. cities rose to 22% last year …”
not sure i believe this.
“2009 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis study concluded buyers who made smaller down payments were more likely to default during “unfavorable economic circumstances, such as a housing market slowdown or job loss.””
Real economists don’t trust any bit of economic knowledge unless it has been empirically verified with fancy statistical methods and published in a peer-reviewed journal.
I just heard a radio commercial yesterday that one of the GSEs wants to “help” underwater FBs refi, and therefore 105% refi loans are now available with nothing down in some cases. Not sure what the fine print of “some cases” means.
Could these ‘cases’ be the specially-favored classs of people whom DC deems worthy of their ‘help’ (e.g. wealthy bankers and the indigent)? Too bad that ‘help’ these days may translate into encouragement to purchase a home when prices are dropping like a rock.
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Comment by exeter
2011-02-16 09:49:48
“Help”????? Step back and think….. if we MUST help people get into a shack, ideally what is the best means of doing so? If they want to help, buy down the mortgage rate. But lowering the downpayment bar to include spendthrifts is stupid.
“as private banks trying to protect themselves against falling knife collateral risk are completely up to the task of setting prudent down payment requirements all by themselves.”
Only if they are required to hold the loans to maturity, rather than selling them to the gov.
As housing prices drop, mortgage lenders are requiring larger downpayments on homes. Kelsey Hubbard talks to WSJ’s Mitra Kalita about what the changes mean for consumers.
Yesterday I drove by a mortgage lender’s electric highway sign. It advertised “No Appraisals”. I did a double-take and wondered what the gimmick was. They must be using B.P.O. instead or requiring a huge down payment.
The house I recently bought needed an appraisal. That “appraisal” came in almost 40% higher than the purchase price. Either that appraiser is a complete nutjob, or the system is a bit rigged - because nobody with half a brain would appraise that house ANYWHERE NEAR that valuation.
Clearly, based upon -actual- sales of homes nearby (not phony asking prices or forclosure reportings that show high valuations), the home is priced around it’s -current- value. I get the feeling based upon the appraisal experiences I’ve had recently that these appraisers are deliberately high-balling.
If you have a large enough down payment sometimes they use a data base with the address & zip code for the appraisal…The only thing the appraiser needs to do is drive by and make sure the physical structure is there…
This week, IRS released tax tips about the homebuyers credit, which also happens to be the subject of this week’s TaxWatch column. Just in time, the Justice Department also released their news about the homebuyers credit – a list of indictments issued and lawsuits filed against tax preparers who filed false or fraudulent claims for the homebuyers credits.
Considering the millions of dollars stolen by these people, at a time when the U.S. Treasury is already seriously depleted, it’s a relief to know that criminals are being caught (as detailed in the Tax Blog post about easy money in refundable tax-credit fraud).
Of course, I simply can’t see why these tax professionals engaged in this fraud. There simply isn’t enough profit in it for them to run the risk to their future livelihood.
In a way, I have to envy those preparers who took a short-cut in filing their homebuyers credit claims. Simply by knocking out tax returns and phony documents, you can complete those tax returns in no time at all.
My office filed over 1,000 claims for a national home community developer. We sweated over each and every tax return, meticulously gathering documents from the buyers and the seller, trying to ensure that IRS had enough proof of the purchase and residency. Sometimes, getting proof of prior home ownership, or lack of it, took creativity. Everyone has special or unusual issues.
Friends who were buying homes together are allowed to split the credit any way they choose. So we developed forms to help protect us, the developer and the buyers, in case anyone later changed their mind about the credit split. We dealt with divorce issues, family issues, bankruptcy and even someone who was absent from home– in prison– after buying the house. Each tax return took hours, instead of the hour or so we had anticipated. Reality is complicated.
Then we learned that homes were being bought by people without proper Social Security numbers or with ITINs (individual taxpayer identification numbers). We researched the issue and discovered that they were, indeed, eligible for the homebuyers credit. The IRS Press Office cleared it with IRS counsel, as I wrote in MarketWatch’s TaxWatch to make other homebuyers in a similar situation aware that it was possible for them to claim the credit legally.
The experience of trying to get this all done correctly was so harrowing that we all nearly had nervous breakdowns from the volume and stress. That’s just in our office. Can you imagine IRS’s campuses where they must have processed over a million claims for refund?
…
My office filed over 1,000 claims for a national home community developer. We sweated over each and every tax return, meticulously gathering documents from the buyers and the seller, trying to ensure that IRS had enough proof of the purchase and residency. Sometimes, getting proof of prior home ownership, or lack of it, took creativity. Everyone has special or unusual issues.
I know the author of this article. And I have no doubt that Eva did indeed sweat over each and every tax return. She’s that kind of person.
Theres been some talk around here about vo-tech education. This story interested me. It’s about some guys from Tanzania coming to Meridian, Idaho, for training as master linemen at the Northwest Lineman College.
When I first moved here, I wondered what the heck was going on - there’s a place of several acres that’s just packed with every kind of telephone pole and power tower imaginable. Then I noticed the sign on the building stating it was the Northwest Lineman College. In the old days Ma Bell et al. did all the training in-house but I guess they are too cheap for that nowadays.
Tanzania has one of the lowest electrification rates in the world. An 800-mile transmission-line project will help bring power to 215,000 people in 366 communities. The Symbion/Pike Power Center in Morogoro, Tanzania, is training local workers to build transmission systems, using a curriculum in English and Swahili developed by the Northwest Lineman College near Meridian.
Training the trainers. The college is training three Tanzanians, including Charles Mhalula, right, to teach other linemen back in Morogoro.
I guess my dad started with Pac Bell as a lineman at that same time, stringing those big powerlines across the desert from Hoover Dam. Then he got more work on the downtown exchanges, and finally ended up some kind of “engineer” desk jockey. What a great retirement he got…*sigh*
Ma Bell still trains people for telephone lines (usually the lowest wire on the pole) or around 18 feet but has never trained peole to deal with electricity, usually at around 24 feet on a standard pole.
In places like Zimbabwe, the previously robust power grid, especially the landline phone system, has been rendered all but defunct due to thefts of copper cable and wire. US cities are starting to struggle with the same issue. But hey, our stock market is going gangbusters.
I actually got married here in Hawaii a few weeks ago. The wifey has some weird “hangover” induced ideas about what goes on at these things. But after the last HBB meetup in Vegas ended with no arrests I can tell her it’s just our annual soiree.
And anyways, she went out and had a bachelorette party the weekend before the wedding, so she can’t complain.
(Hwy’s headin’ for an unseen camp site in Death Valley tomorrow,…there’s only one place that offers Wi-Fi, if it’s this weekend, might be possible to say congratulations!)
Promise the boy a gratis supply of Flaming double decker bamboo Tiki Drinks (with monkey umbrella garnishes and the requisite fruit skewers.) A hint of Dick Dale and the Deltones waftin’ from on the bandstand might set the stage righteously, too.
Late mortgage payments fall in 4th qtr, but housing price drop may stall further improvement.
NEW YORK (AP) — More homeowners across the country made their mortgage payments on time in the fourth quarter, but with housing prices falling again, prospects for significant improvement in 2011 have faded.
Credit reporting agency TransUnion found that 6.41 percent of homeowners were behind on their mortgages by 60 days or more during the last three months of 2010. It marked the fourth-straight period the rate fell, and was down from 6.89 percent in 2009’s fourth quarter, when delinquencies peaked.
But while TransUnion analysts until recently expected the figure to continue to drop this year, they are now predicting a flat rate through 2011, mainly because of recent housing price declines.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index found home prices dropped in November across most of America’s largest cities, and average prices in eight major markets hit their lowest point since the housing bust.
There’s a strong correlation between delinquency rates and falling housing prices, said Tim Martin, who follows the U.S. housing market for TransUnion’s financial services unit. He said while the delinquency rate declined through each quarter of 2010, the drop was smaller each period, as the housing market sputtered.
What’s more, in the fourth quarter, even though the overall mortgage delinquency rate for the country fell, there were increases from the third quarter in 33 states.
There’s a strong correlation between delinquency rates and falling housing prices
WHY? Presumably if you keep your job and don’t get sick or divorced, you should be making the same payment every month, and it shouldn’t matter what your home is “worth,” right?
I suppose depression could be due to a chemical imbalance in some. But I take the impression a large number of people habitually make themselves depressed through recurring patterns of thought which flood their brain with chemicals that bring on the depressed feelings. The cure is to figure out how to break the pattern by no longer dwelling on the depressing subjects (easier said than done, I know!).
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Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-02-16 09:47:14
I suppose depression could be due to a chemical imbalance in some. But I take the impression a large number of people habitually make themselves depressed through recurring patterns of thought which flood their brain with chemicals that bring on the depressed feelings. The cure is to figure out how to break the pattern by no longer dwelling on the depressing subjects (easier said than done, I know!).
In my own case, the problem was a combination of lousy eating habits and recurring thought patterns brought about by not being able to find a decent job in early 1980s Pittsburgh. Recall back then that the local unemployment rate was around 20%.
However, things were not entirely hopeless. I found, amongst my family, friends, and, yes, some caring professionals, much support of fixing those eating habits and the negative thought train that was rolling ’round and ’round in my head.
Then there was the job sitch. Perhaps the best career move I ever made was to get into a fight with a customer at the food co-op where I was working as a cashier. And she and I had words while I was running the register. Yikes!
I was so worried about what would happen to me and my co-op job that I hoofed it over to the University of Pittsburgh on my day off, spied an interesting job on a “help wanted” bulletin board, applied for it and got it.
The co-op boss never mentioned a word to me about the fight at the register, but he wasn’t sorry to see me go.
Truth be told, he didn’t care for any of the staff. We weren’t exactly the employees he had in mind to carry out his plan to turn the food co-op into an upscale store. In the ghetto, no less.
Well, off to Pitt I went. And it turned out that my boss had taken management lessons from Attila the Hun.
As near as I can figure out, her turning against me happened when we were supposed to meet up outside her office to head over to another campus building for a meeting. What I didn’t know was that she had the clock outside of her office set to tavern time — 10 minutes fast.
So, there I was, monitoring the time in my office, which was set to the actual time. Shortly before 10 a.m., I roll out of my office, lock the door, and head over to the boss’ office. Where she was fuming because I was *late*.
Things went progressively downhill, but ya know what? In all my struggles to find a better job, I learned something. And that was that the working conditions weren’t all there was to a job.
Yes, the boss was a real witch that started with the letter B, but the salary the job paid was higher than any I’d had before. The worse things became at the office, the madder I got.
In fact, I’d get so mad that I’d stomp over to the Pitt employee credit union and have them raise my savings deduction from each pay period. Call it my escape fund, because that’s exactly what I did.
During one of Attila the Boss’s many tirades hurled at me, she told me to start looking for another job. I told her that I would start looking for another city.
You could have knocked her over with a feather, she was that shocked. She insisted that I didn’t have to do anything that drastic. But I did. And I had my escape fund all buffed up and ready to take me places.
On Friday, February 13, 1987, I handed my Pitt resignation letter to that hateful boss. She cheerfully took it.
Then I proceeded to have the best six weeks that I ever had in Pittsburgh. ‘Cause I was leaving. Getting back on my bike and hitting the road.
Of course, my parents were horrified that I would have the nerve to do such a thing, but oh well. I realized that I couldn’t run my life like an opinion poll. And what could they do anyway? I was getting close to 30 years old, and Pittsburgh just wasn’t working. I was going to find a place that would.
On Saturday, March 28, 1987, my bike and I boarded a one-way flight to Phoenix, Arizona. From there, I pedaled down to the Mexican border city of Nogales, said “Hola!” then turned north and headed up to Canada.
I biked and VIA Railed in Canada, making it as far west as Vancouver. Then I headed back to the States, got on a one-way flight to Tucson from Portland, and I’ve been here ever since.
This is not to say that things have been easy since. They haven’t been. Right now, I’m dealing with the declining health of several family members, but you know what? You can’t dwell on that stuff 24/7. You need to take a break from it and be part of society.
Comment by Blue Skye
2011-02-16 09:58:28
I agree. Those thought patterns may be induced in the FB by the realization that they are throwing money into a black hole when the house is worth less than the mortgage, and the gap is widening month by month.
Comment by Pete
2011-02-16 10:15:56
“I take the impression a large number of people habitually make themselves depressed through recurring patterns of thought which flood their brain with chemicals that bring on the depressed feelings. The cure is to figure out how to break the pattern”
I hear you. Close down HBB for good!
Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-02-16 10:22:16
My depression got better, once I got past that “pride” and “self-respect” thing, and the fact that the PTB place zero value on what I do for a living……
Comment by Jim A.
2011-02-16 11:23:31
How much is one supposed to worry? Certainly some people spend much of theri lives in an elevated sense of near panic. They worry about EVERYTHING, all the time. OTOH, it is evident than many FB’s didn’t worry nearly enough before the signed those papers.
Comment by Elanor
2011-02-16 11:31:28
Prof. Bear, what you describe is called Cognitive Behavioral Therapy. It involves recognizing some ten different patterns of negative thought and learning to talk back to such thoughts until the mind has become trained to overcome them.
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-02-16 13:06:08
Prof. Bear, what you describe is called Cognitive Behavioral Therapy. It involves recognizing some ten different patterns of negative thought and learning to talk back to such thoughts until the mind has become trained to overcome them.
That’s what I had back in Pittsburgh. Worked very well.
One of the things that I learned on my own, and via various support groups, is to tell those patterns of thought to eff off. Sometimes, I even cuss them out. Man, that feels good!
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-02-16 19:43:03
“In my own case, the problem was a combination of lousy eating habits and recurring thought patterns brought about by not being able to find a decent job in early 1980s Pittsburgh.”
Who knows — maybe we were eating poorly back then due to the lack of decent jobs. I was depressed circa 1980 as well. Eventually I beat it by reading this book (on Cognitive Behavioral Therapy) and following its advice:
Dr. Burns describes how to combat feelings of depression so you can develop greater self-esteem. This best-selling book has sold over 4 million copies worldwide to date. In a recent national survey of mental health professionals, Feeling Good was rated #1–out of a list of 1000 books–as the most frequently recommended self-help book on depression in the United States.
I also found it useful to let go of my father’s religion, which used to make me feel personally responsible for every problem on the planet. It’s much better to have a clear view of where your power lies, and where it ends, and judge yourself accordingly.
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2011-02-20 14:30:54
“My depression got better, once I got past that “pride” and “self-respect” thing, and the fact that the PTB place zero value on what I do for a living……”
My depression also lifted with the geographic cure.
It kicked my rear end big time, daily, when I was trapped in CT. Unexpectedly, it got a lot better the week after I got down here (”where the jobs are” - tm Oxide). It went away completely once I got some cash flow, and had the contentment of locking my door at night and the peace to pursue my enjoyments. Which route to explore on the dog walks. Which book. What music. My very own channel changer.
There’s something about us humans that chafes against being trapped. I agree that entrapment can take many forms. A most insidious form is carrying around the 100 lb weight of your cast character, as defined by the PTB. Or the PTA. Or whoever is shoving you into their sardine can and labeling it “the acceptable you”.
To which I say, “Eff ‘em”.
I realize that I am lucky as all get out, actually being able to take the geographic cure. Targeting a destination “on the numbers”. Actually finding and getting a job that was only there in theory, based on the numbers.
For many of us in the trapped and eviscerated middle class, that sequence of actions is nearly impossible. Getting even more difficult, as the wealth created by our labor is skimmed off the top and routed into bailouts and bonuses for those who claim to be our betters.
My landlord said the owners are happy with us as tenants and we’re “safe.” I have no idea what that means, but she did not directly reply to suggestion that $100 sq. ft. would be fair given the comps. Which, until last month, were spiraling down.
I drove by the place that closed at $160ish a sq. ft. and the 3rd bedroom is, drumroll…. the garage. Lord help me! Freaking Clownifornians. I guess if you’re from an $850,000 2 br. in Compton, anything under $300k by the beach is a steal.
Stevenson remembers one couple who lived in a waterfront home on Treasure Island. But because they planned to give up the house, she didn’t press them too hard about the value of their personal property.
“The next day in the St. Pete Times, there they were in the food section because they had a personal chef. You could see the granite countertops. I said, ‘Okay, let’s send out an appraiser and re-evaluate everything.’ ”
Bahahahahahahaha!!!
Those granite countertops will get you EVERY time!
In 2006, authorities say, Richard Likane of Tampa got a mortgage after telling the lender he was making $12,324 a month as manager of an Italian restaurant.
But tax returns submitted in his 2008 bankruptcy case correctly stated that the only income he had in 2006 was $44.
After the FBI investigated those and other discrepancies between mortgage applications and Likane’s bankruptcy filing, he was indicted last year on a charge of mail fraud affecting a financial institution — and faces up to 30 years in prison………………….
I’ll bet he gets 60 days, if any, and a year’s probation with a mortgage counsellor.
Good article. Thanks for posting, Muggy. For grins, I went to the web site mentioned in the article, and there is a disturbing number of timeshares for sale.
There’s always a disturbing number of timeshares for sale, just like there’s always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet.
Rising Employment No Inflation Rebound as Wages Affirm Bernanke
(Bloomberg)
Amy Valle is caught in a labor- market recovery that’s forcing some Americans to settle for less. Before she lost her job as a full-time health-department case worker last November, she was making $23 an hour. Now she’s paid $10 an hour as a part-time assistant coordinator in an after-school program.
“From here on out, it will be a struggle,” said Valle, 32, whose husband lost his $50,000 government job and still is out of work after a year. “I don’t feel like there’s any place we can go to get what we were getting paid.”
The improvement in the unemployment rate to 9 percent in January from a two-decade peak of 10.1 percent in October 2009 masks a new reality: Many of the jobs people are taking as the economy rebounds offer lower pay, fewer hours and worse benefits than some of the 8.75 million positions that disappeared because of the recession, according to Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in Toronto.
This may restrain income growth, limiting bigger gains in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the U.S. economy. It also underscores Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s contention that wages, which increased 1.7 percent on an average hourly basis last year, have acted as a constraint on inflation, allowing the central bank to keep interest rates at record lows to sustain growth.
Maybe she could join a union?? Watched “Hoffa” last night. Seemed to me as if they dowplayed the negative repercussions of “corruption for power” on the masses. Sheeple are smart.
And only 6.9% of private sector workers are union. source BLS
Yea, 6.9% of our private sector workers make us “uncompetitive”.
Tell you what US Chamber of Commerce,
Give us a shack, a daily bowl of rice a daily kick in the face and maybe USA can be more “competitive” while you greedy SOB’s grow richer than kings.
Comment by ecofeco
2011-02-16 15:16:55
You mean the same US Chamber of Commerce that is paying to train overseas, foreign workers at companies that are taking our jobs?
America has the HIGHEST corporate tax rates of any industrialized country…
Your points rarely show any evidence of curiosity to dig deeper than am radio talking points. Why? Is everything 100% or 0%?
Look. America has a high statitory tax rate. We do! BUT……But …..(are you ready?)……AFTER all the loopholes, deductions, offshoring of tax jurisdictions the USA has one of the lowest rates of actual corporate taxes paid. That means that corporations do not even come close to paying the rates that you think and AM radio says they pay.
Don’t you ever get any of these memos?
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Comment by 2banana
2011-02-16 12:44:00
Actually - I tend to do my own research. You seem to like to spout off “facts” and then when caught spout off in a different direction hoping no one notices.
An article from 2008. And since then Japan has cut their corporate tax rate.
Only Japan has a higher marginal corporate tax rate among developed nations, the Treasury Department said last year. When state taxes are factored in, U.S. corporations pay about 39 percent on their last dollar of profit.
Banana believes what he wants to believe. And he believes that all those poor corporations, which are making record profits, need even more breaks.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-02-16 13:49:47
U.S. corporations pay about 39 percent on their last dollar of profit.
2Bannana, I ran a corporation but I certainly don’t run from your talking points. Now let’s everyone look at your above sentence 2banana. About taxes on PROFIT and “last dollar of profit”.
Now think about what I said. The part about USA having high marginal tax rates but so many loopholes that the high marginal tax rates don’t mean squat.
Now when I ran my corporation in the USA don’t you think I took advantage of every loophole and deduction and strategy I had?
After I did this, that and the other thing, then “invested” in some loophole OR paid myself or my partner or 401K or IRA or whatever a bunch of dividends and money, do you think I would show a lot of PROFIT?? On my “last dollar of profit.”
No 2banna, that’s not how it works in the real world. You don’t want to show profits and there are tons of ways not to.
And the big corporations are have even better methods to avoid taxes.
From: Smartmoney dot com (facts are hard) You may have heard: U.S. corporations face one of the highest income tax rates in the world, though the mention of “rate” is often enough excised, so that what comes through is the assertion that corporations pay too much in taxes. This is simply untrue if your basis for comparison is the developed world. The truth is that while the 35% corporate income tax rate is high indeed, the creativity and global reach of U.S. corporations make them among the most lightly levied.
Between 2000 and 2005, U.S. corporate taxes amounted to 2.2% of the GDP. The average for the 30 mostly rich member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development was 3.4%.
What’s often left out of the discussion when corporate tax rates is that we have many loopholes and exemptions that other countries don’t have. The result is that the amount of tax actually collected is actually less than many countries that we typically compare ourselves to.
Here’s one link that shows how the effective tax rate varies by industry:
+1. Whenever some Republicrat sheep starts bleating about off-sourcing and predatory capitalism, I remind them that this is what they voted for. Ditto for the hope ‘n change dupes when they saw Obama’s economic team, a.k.a. Goldman Sachs inside job crew, and wailed that they’d been had.
It also underscores Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s contention that wages, which increased 1.7 percent on an average hourly basis last year, have acted as a constraint on inflation,”
But if 3rd world is making more money either by wage increases or a falling dollar what does that do for inflation ?
Bernanke has two tasks: facilitate Wall Street looting of the productive economy, and inflate away government debts and obligations. Once you understand that, all of his actions make perfect sense.
Plant pushers, sod slingers (green side up) and mulch movers.
The world’s largest home-improvement chain is adding 60,000 full- and part-time seasonal workers to its roughly 2,250 stores in time for its second annual Spring Black Friday sale.
“Spring is our Christmas,” said Home Depot spokesman Craig Fischel. “This is when we get the most traffic.”
I’ve worked retail here in Tucson. And let me tell you, having the ability to speak Spanish is a real plus.
Why? Because of Mexican shoppers coming up here for major sprees. Oh, do they ever spend money.
If you can speak to them courteously and respectfully in Spanish, they’ll really open the wallets. And refer their friends and relatives to your store.
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Comment by arizonadude
2011-02-16 08:42:29
I know about 1 word of spanish, pino= tree.
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-02-16 08:47:08
I know about 1 word of spanish, pino= tree.
It’s arbol. And I wish that I could put the accent over the “a” so I could spell the word correctly.
Comment by Steve J
2011-02-16 08:50:33
I can order lunch at most Mexican resteraunts.
Comment by In Colorado
2011-02-16 09:15:10
A “pino” is a pine tree.
Comment by DennisN
2011-02-16 09:25:16
Growing up in CA, I must know a thousand words in Spanish. It’s just that I lack the grammar to connecte them into sentences. Most CA place names are Spanish.
El Camino Real - the King’s highway
Sausalito - grove of willows
Los Altos - the heights
Monte Sereno - serene mountain
Palo Alto - high tree
Los Gatos - the cats
Salinas - salt marsh
Berkeley - insane asylum
Comment by samk
2011-02-16 09:38:18
“Why? Because of Mexican shoppers coming up here for major sprees. Oh, do they ever spend money.”
Cartel employees?
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-02-16 09:49:02
Cartel employees?
Nope. Just plain old middle and upper class Mexicans. And, BTW, although it doesn’t get much play in this country, Mexico has a rapidly growing middle class.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-02-16 10:03:32
Growing up in CA, I must know a thousand words in Spanish.
Cali is the land of Spanish nouns but it’s the verbs that are tricky.
Comment by DennisN
2011-02-16 10:06:24
I forgot my favorite:
Alameda De Las Pulgas - avenue of the fleas
Comment by samk
2011-02-16 10:56:42
“Nope. Just plain old middle and upper class Mexicans. And, BTW, although it doesn’t get much play in this country, Mexico has a rapidly growing middle class.”
Forgive me. I’ve been reading too many non-fiction books about Juarez serial killers and border town drug wars. I definitley do not see enough good news coming out of Mexico but, then, I haven’t really been looking for it either. I should start.
Comment by scdave
2011-02-16 11:13:42
Berkeley - insane asylum ??
LOL……
Comment by In Colorado
2011-02-16 12:49:04
“Alameda De Las Pulgas - avenue of the fleas”
That would be “Avenida”. An alameda is a tree lined promenade or park.
Tidbit for the day: Any word in Spanish that starts with “al” is Arabic in origin. A leftover from the time when the Moors ruled Spain.
This is going to be a body slam for a lot of low income and displaced Americans fighting for the few menial jobs that are out there. They will find themselves passed over for illegals because they don’t speak Spanish.
I know Home Depot has some pretty stringent hiring policies and I don’t think illegals would get jobs there, although English/Spanish bilingual folks would be hired, provided everything else checks out. They background check and drug test their employees, including some prescription meds.
Illegals do shop at Lowe’s and HD, though, with a vengeance. Do-it-yourselfers. One guy I know who works at Lowe’s says he cringes when he sees some of the Spanish only speakers trying to fit pipes together for gas lines. He tries to help them out and advise them, doesn’t want to see household explosions.
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Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-02-16 10:28:15
Do-it-yourselfers? Or wannbe heating and a/c contractors?
IMO, maybe a few household explosions are what we need.
Comment by Steve J
2011-02-16 12:35:12
They hired me when I was in High School. Can’t be that stringent.
What size down payment should be required for a mortgage?
The Obama administration called for gradually raising down payments to a minimum of 10% on conventional loans, meaning those that can be bought or guaranteed by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And mortgage data show that private lenders are already pushing sharply higher the required down payments, mainly to mitigate their risk as home prices continue to fall.
Where do you think down payments should fall? Should the equity be more substantial to prevent default? Or should entry barriers to homeownership be lower to help the housing market recover?
Ask a Japanese home owner over the past two decades whether this kind of double dip is unprecedented for housing, and you may get a different opinion than that offered by Mr Stiff.
Housing Crash Hits Wealthier Cities
Bad news for home sellers in Seattle: states previously thought to have dodged the fallout of the housing crisis are now beginning to feel its impact. While low-quality loans exploded most dramatically in Florida and Sunbelt states, the New York Times reports that richer regions are now getting hit, with Seattle being a case study: its housing market has fallen more than 30 percent from 2007 levels. Similarly, “Minneapolis dropped more than Miami, and Atlanta fared worse than Phoenix” last year. Despite federal efforts to prop up the market, with sellers unable to offload expensive real estate, many are simply giving up, and economists predict that prices will continue to drop. “We’re at a period near the bottom but with more volatility than we normally see at this point,” said David Stiff, chief economist for home price index company Fiserv. “This sort of double dip is unprecedented for housing.”
I still remember shaking my head when I read the news story that claimed the the Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo was worth more than all of California.
The reporter better save this article for next year. He can just change ‘Seattle” to “D.C.” and save time, because DC’s is about to go down. I know smug Bethesdans living in their $1.2MM tudor don’t want to hear it, but its about to happen.
Any information to back up your timing prediction? I know that we must have a ways to go in this area, I just don’t see any way to predict when it is going to hit. Unless you think the federal contractors are going to take a big hit soon?
Sean, I’d bet against you on that one. Employment in the D.C. area remains strong, wages are above the national average, and layoffs are few and far between. When I hear an announcement that the IRS is about to lay off 1,000 employees, instead of the announcement that the IRS is going to be hiring 1,000 new employees, I might change my mind.
“Any information to back up your timing prediction?”
Not any quantified information. Its just a bet I’m willing to take. My thinking (In random order):
-This area is wealthy… extremely wealthy, thanks to the Federal Government. Like a Realtor told me once “The Government ain’t going anywhere”. But the wealth is all based off of debts and deficits. It would be one thing if things were going better, but they are not. We dont produce or make anything here. Its just shuffling money back and forth and adding it to the IOUs. (Sorry, don’t know what IOU is in Chinese)
-The jobs. Yes, there are a lot of folks here that have moved to the DMV area for employment, like myself and my wife. We rent, as do other nomads. Thats what the younger generation is, a bunch of nomads who are able to pick up and leave for a few years. We gain experience in our fields, enjoy walking around the Mall and complaining about the tourists on the Metro, but once opportunities open up back in our home states/areas, we are gone. The days of “graduating high school, going down to the local factory and working for 30 years” are over. My wife and I are here for one thing: Experience to put on her resume. Once something opens up in upstate NY, Ohio, Carolina, Chicago or maybe a handful of other places we are gone - and talking to a few other “nomads” around the local bars/playgrounds they are doing the same.
-Speaking of jobs - all of those listings you see on usajobs dot com arent all real. Some just collect resumes, some use it to see what kind of folks they can hire, some use it as a gauge to see how many talented folks are out there. A friend of mine applied to the FAA - did so about three years ago. He has been emailing the HR lady about his application. She said once a job becomes available they’ll contact him. After telling her about the specific job title and number, she said “Don’t look at that. We’ve had that posting up for years and haven’t filled the position yet.”
-The attitudes of homeowners here. Its just like watching those shows on HGTV. Buy a place, paint the closet, sell it next month for $60,000 more. The “we’re safe” attitude is prevalent here, as people just think there is no way to lose money at real estate and its ALWAYS GONNA GO UP. Hmm, where have I seen that attitude before.
-The jumbo loan stuff, which is about to get revamped. 729K is a lot different here than 729K in Kansas, Dallas or Atlanta. If the protection goes away for jumbo loans, read the fine print to see if DC homes or high cost of living areas are included .
-The Republicans/Tea Party. Lets be honest and say inside the Beltway isnt the most desired place to be nowadays. The National resentment towards the Government, federal workers, entitlement spending is pretty easy to see.
And if the GOP or the TP have their way, they will decimate Washington. This is one of their not so secret plans as told to me by a rabid GOPer, and I actually do think they have a good point. Obviously Washington was designed many years ago before the age of jet travel and the internet. Instead of having all agencies headquartered inside the Beltway, spread it on out. Put the DHS in Kansas City, HHS in Billings, DOT in Austin…..No need for all the agencies to be blocks from each other. Workers would move the prospective area and work, while buying a house there, paying taxes there, being a part of a community there. How much would it help, lets say, Detroit if the Government decided to put the entire IRS department there. Thousands would move out of DC and into Detroit. Homes would go up there, down in DC.
Anyways, just my little rant. I’ll be sure to look at this in about two years to see if I’m right.
Was out of town for bit and returned yesterday to the news that the Census is showing a 6.9% decline in the population of the city of Chicago for the past decade. Whoa! So we’re looking at not only a building inventory/shadow inventory, but also a smaller population with which to absorb it. The headlines here say it’s the smallest city population since 1910. The decline far exceeds all previous estimates for the city since 2000.
Here is a related story as regards the problem of absorbing shadow inventory on the national level. With the wave of retiring baby boomers sucking up an increasing share of the national wealth for the next couple of decades, I have a hard time envisioning a reversal of this trend over the near term future.
Continuing a 12-year decline, the U.S. birth rate has dropped to the lowest level since national data have been available, according to statistics just released by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). The rate of births among teenagers also fell to a new record low, continuing a decline that began in 1991.
The birth rate fell to 13.9 per 1,000 persons in 2002, down from 14.1 per 1,000 in 2001 and down a full 17 percent from the recent peak in 1990 (16.7 per 1,000), according to a new CDC report, “Births: Preliminary Data for 2002.” CDC analysts say the birth rate is dropping as the increasing life span of Americans results in a smaller proportion of women of child childbearing age.
…
Funny how no one actually wants to LIVE under socialism.
Except in Canada where 86% prefer their socialized health insurance vs the American BS system. source: wiki
And Germany, France, Holland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway etc. where they prefer their form of capitalism way more than America’s crony-capitalist and criminal form of corrupt winner take all disaster capitalism.
There form of capitalism is also better for their people and very productive. There are more Global Fortune 500 companies in the EU than there are in America. Socialist Germany alone exports way more than does the USA.
Not to mention that all those “socialist” countries are far safer to live in as well and have far fewer people incarcerated per capita than we do.
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Comment by ecofeco
2011-02-16 13:59:26
Wrong. It’s not “per capita” is far fewer, period.
The “per capita” is thrown out there in media and social zeitgeist to deliberately confuse and downplay the fact that we are a defacto police state because we have the MOST prisoners by numbers alone.
This doesn’t even include the 7 million on probation and parole.
Comment by ecofeco
2011-02-16 14:05:13
Okay, I don’t even know what I was trying to say in that first sentence except, it’s not per capita. It’s sheer, raw numbers alone. And we have the highest.
Comment by 2banana
2011-02-16 14:12:25
And they all seem to be all white and with a Christian heritage with massive mineral and oil reserves. And they all seem to have kept quite a bit of capitalism. (Hint - Sweden has school choice for any school and it is easier to start a business in Germany than America)
Now why don’t we look at a place that have instituted socialism with the way Karl thought about it with a larger population than that of Disney Land on a sunny day.
Like former China? Sudan? Zimbabwe? Former USSR? Former Vietnam? Venezuela? Cuba? Etc.
Police states tend to safer.
Comment by ecofeco
2011-02-16 15:21:31
Because nobody is talking about pure Karl Marx socialism except the wingnut Chicken Littles.
And also because none of your examples implemented pure Karl Marx socialism either.
Nobody can, and this is generally understood.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-02-16 15:33:41
And they all seem to be all white and with a Christian heritage with massive mineral and oil reserves. And they all seem to have kept quite a bit of capitalism. (Hint - Sweden has school choice for any school and it is easier to start a business in Germany than America)
On being White: Today, education, progressive taxes, honest government, higher wages, market protectionism, unions and investment in a country’s people is the key not color. Japan is not “white”.
Christian: Nothing wrong with that at all but the Northern European countries are not that devout therefore my above points trump religion.
Oil reserves? Nice but not a deciding factor in development of capitalism. See the Mid-East Also USA possesses vast natural resources other than oil as well.
Sweden having capitalism: Yes! Very good. Parts of the EU do democratic-socialism AND capitalism better than the USA.
You make some good points but where you get hung up is in labels and all or nothing thinking.
For example:
When someone touts the benefits and superiority of the Canadian health-care system or the superior Germany model of unionized manufacturing you tend to get all bent and think we are talking about USSR or something.
Well, we’re not.
Comment by MightyMike
2011-02-16 15:45:29
Now why don’t we look at a place that have instituted socialism with the way Karl thought about it with a larger population than that of Disney Land on a sunny day.
Like former China? Sudan? Zimbabwe? Former USSR? Former Vietnam? Venezuela? Cuba? Etc.
You’re learning, Mister Banana. Sweden, Germany, etc. are not socialist countries. Neither is Chicago, so your original post can be ignored.
Also, if you were referring to Karl Marx, you need to keep in mind that he didn’t actually prescribe in any detail what sort of econmomy he would prefer.
Comment by In Colorado
2011-02-16 15:51:03
“The “per capita” is thrown out there in media and social zeitgeist to deliberately confuse and downplay the fact that we are a defacto police state because we have the MOST prisoners by numbers alone.”
Sorry if I wasn’t clear. I was saying that we have more people locked up in absolute and relative numbers than any other nation in the world.
Edge–did you see the numbers by race? 200,000 African-Americans have fled the city since that time. Whites were down 50K and the hispanic population increased a bit. being a demography dork I wonder about those numbers–is the AA population finally getting wise and moving out of the cr@ppy schools/crime infested neighborhoods? Going to warmer climes as the blue collar jobs shrink here?
So far there appears to be no obvious commensurate increases in the south suburbs to fully explain where exactly those African Americans might have wound up. One theory showing up today is that with the demolition of public housing in the city, many might have just slipped through the cracks during this census.
Just a hunch, but if someone is hard to find during a census then it’s probably not a stretch to conclude that house buying is probably not a high priority for them. Meanwhile much Federal funding hangs in the balance. No matter how ya slice it, this is not good local news.
Remember when folks in Seattle got to sit back and laugh at cities like Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Fort Lauderdale and their exploding housing bubbles? Well, maybe it wasn’t so much of a laugh as a sigh of relief that it wasn’t equally bad in our neck of the woods. Whatever it was, it’s been over for some time. And The New York Times reports that those other cities may get to do the laughing soon.
From Sunday’s report:
The rolling real estate crash that ravaged Florida and the Southwest is delivering a new wave of distress to communities once thought to be immune — economically diversified cities where the boom was relatively restrained.
In the last year, home prices in Seattle had a bigger decline than in Las Vegas. Minneapolis dropped more than Miami, and Atlanta fared worse than Phoenix.
Seattle home prices have fallen 31 percent from their peak in 2007.
…
Truly heartwarming news. All those folks in NW Washington State who called me a kook a few years back are eating crow. My only regret is that I moved to MD so I don’t have a front row seat for it.
Last week a foreclosure report from RealtyTrac showed the process was still completely skewed by the so-called “robo-signing” (faulty paperwork) issues at some of the nation’s largest mortgage servicers that were uncovered last fall. Another report today from ForeclosureRadar.com, which only tracks a few states out West, shows some important micro-moves that will have a big impact on the Spring housing market.
ForeclosureRadar.com shows that foreclosure sales, that is, either bank repossessions or sales to third parties (usually at the courthouse steps and often investors) jumped dramatically in January from the previous month in some crucial states.
In California, bank repossessions jumped 51.5 percent, in Arizona 56.2 percent, in Nevada up 36.8 percent.
“We have not seen this level of activity on the courthouse steps for months,” says Sean O’Toole, CEO and Founder of ForeclosureRadar.com. “The increase in foreclosures is just in time to provide a fresh supply of entry level homes for the spring home buying season.”
…
Even after foreclosure, debt collectors still pursue borrowers for repayment
A grim echo of the housing bust is building for Michigan homeowners who’ve lost their homes to foreclosure or sold them in short sales. Without even knowing it, they could end up owing tens of thousands of dollars in mounting debts under a previously unenforced provision of the state’s foreclosure law.
Until a few years ago, when someone lost a home to foreclosure in Michigan, the owner walked awayembarrassed and financially battered, but owing nothing more onthe property.
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Now, because of dropping property values, mortgage lenders are engineering foreclosures so they can pursue a borrower for the unpaid balance of a home loan for years to come. With added fees and interest, this phantom debt — called a “mortgage deficiency” — could swell to become more than the homeowner paid for the property.
Now, because of dropping property values, mortgage lenders are engineering foreclosures so they can pursue a borrower for the unpaid balance of a home loan for years to come. With added fees and interest, this phantom debt — called a “mortgage deficiency” — could swell to become more than the homeowner paid for the property
And I’ll bet you that more than a few of those former homeowners will tell their former lenders to stick it where the sun don’t shine.
will tell their former lenders to stick it where the sun don’t shine ??
And the bank will then turn to the Bounty Hunter collection agencies who will harass you for the remainder of your life thats assuming that the state tax board or the IRS do not do you in first…
Welcome to the world of the recourse states. In recourse states, the borrower is likely to declare bankruptcy simultaneously with the foreclosure in order to eliminate the deficiency judgement.
It becomes even harder to prove that the debt is owed as time goes on and it gets sold from debt collector to debt collector. It’s extremely important that you don’t ignore notices and if you’re served for court to hire a lawyer…or at the very least show up to defend yourself.
this phantom debt — called a “mortgage deficiency” — could swell to become more than the homeowner paid for the property…….
Correction:
more than the “homeowner” BORROWED to pay for the property.
The bank just wants back what they borrowed. They are entitled to it.
After all, it was a “loan”. I like mortgage deficiencies. They’re like a restraint on excessive borrowing.
I don’t like mortgage deficiencies, they allow the mortgage company to offer more assurances to Wall Street. If you make a loan on something, you better be sure the collateral supports it.
The future salary is the collateral here. Upon death of the borrower, the debt should be forgiven. Even in other culture, the debt of a father is inhered by his offspring. Although this sound slavery to me, but borrowing money without paying back is also sound robery to me.
“I like mortgage deficiencies.” vs. “I don’t like mortgage deficiencies”
Doesn’t seem to matter, or matters very little. The idea behind recourse loans was that it was thought they’d lower interest rates and encourage lending in those states. Except lending has become national (even if “real estate is local”). Interest rates on the whole vary very, very little between recourse and non-recourse states.
In addition, too many FBs refinanced, turning their previous non-recourse loans into recourse loans.
Plus we hear of a lot of instances (albeit on a case-by-case basis) of banks waiving the deficiency because they “can’t get blood from a stone”.
It’s important to note that there is lots of gray area between recourse and non-recourse. Every state has it’s own law(s) about how deficiency balances are treated. For example, California and Arizona are both considered non-recourse states. However, in California, you lose that protection if you refinance. In Arizona, you only lose that protection if you refinance AND take out additional cash. And after reading/understanding the law, you have to look at case history to determine how courts in that state interpret the law as it isn’t always written clearly.
Have never understood why rates/requirements are essentially the same in a recourse state vs a non-recourse state. I would never lend in Arizona without 20% down, a solid appraisal, and significantly higher interest rates.
• Filings up in most Central Valley counties
• ‘Banks remain reluctant to aggressively foreclose’
January brought significant increases in foreclosure sales in California, including the Central Valley, according to figures from ForeclosureRadar Inc., a Discovery Bay-based company that says it tracks every foreclosure filing to its resolution.
The increases return volumes to pre robo-signing levels, the company says.
“While the increase is significant, we’ve seen larger surges after moratoriums or delays have played out in the past,” says Sean O’Toole, founder and president of ForeclosureRadar Inc.
“For example in California after the delays caused by Senate Bill 1137 we saw a surge in Notice of Default filings that far eclipsed any prior period. That is not the case here,” he says. “Despite months of slow sales, we’ve simply returned to prior levels, which to me indicates banks remain reluctant to aggressively foreclose despite the time it takes to foreclose being at or near record levels, and large inventories of properties still scheduled for foreclosure sale.”
Reversing a four-month declining trend, Notice of Default filings rose 6.9 percent month-over-month in California, while Notice of Trustee Sale filings dropped 13.8 percent from the prior month.
Foreclosure filings year-over-year showed mild change, with Notice of Default filings down 3.3 percent and Notice of Trustee Sale filings slipping just 1.4 percent from January 2010.
Foreclosure sales skyrocketed from December, with 51.5 percent more sales Back to Bank and 52.8 percent more properties purchased by Third Parties, typically investors.
…
This is why I wouldn’t mind seeing the copper thieves step up their visits to bank-owned houses. It might give the banks some incentive to stop playing extend-and-pretend and mark-to-fantasy accounting games, and flush the toxic waste out of the system.
Looked at Realty Trac for the first time in a long while. The areas that I have been looking for a place to buy for the last 8 years 33410, 33458, 33469, 33418, 33455 have loads of bank owned properties but only about 1 out of 10 for sale. Not much of a shadow, they are sitting there in broad daylight.
Of course the last house I rented in 33458 went through the foreclosure process for 3 years and was sold as a short sale and never showed up on Realty Trac at all. Oh well time to go, the cows won`t milk themselves.
Northeast Palm Beach County was relatively late to the party. I have however seen homes under the $100,000 mark. Would you actually want to live there? Probably not. I think we’ve got a ways to go in Palm Beach County, not because homes aren’t affordable, but because there are too darn many of them.
“Think about the possibilities for medical diagnosis support, for better anticipating the energy needs of utilities, or for… protecting insurers, banks and governments from fraud,” Weber said.
See that’s how it begins: They only see the benevolence & usefulness…not…”turn on the master” scenario…just like a split atom or a spliced DNA food staple.
Hwy edit rewrite:
“…protecting insurers, banks and governments from fraud generated by malicious conniving peon customers,”
IBM’s Watson Wins in Jeopardy, Needs Lessons in US Geography:
By: Fahmida Y. Rashid
Watson appeared to have breezed through Double Jeopardy, but that was apparently not the case. During the course of the game, Watson had crashed multiple times during the taping, said NOVA producer Michael Bicks, who had been at the taping of the show. The half hour match took four hours to tape, he said.
At the end of the game, the IBM team was still nervous about the outcome of the tournament because they knew “all the different ways it could lose,” Bicks said.
Looney Tune Jepoordy:
Category: “Speed of light”
Alex: “How long does it take the sun’s light to reach you?”
Watson: “8.3478593759843922429411593224284223384 minutes, approximately, OK Alex, I’m sorta guessing here…”
Bugs: “eh, that depends upon where you’re standing Alex…is this a Trix’s question Doc? …if it is, you all got the wrong wabbit!”
Goldman is not controlling the stock market. The FED is giving Goldman, WFC, JP MORGAN, BAC and CITI piles of money to buy stocks and keep raising the prices of the stocks.
Goldman’s computers just front-run all the trades, without those pesky transaction fees that all of us would have to pay.
Whenever orders come in, whether the order is for a price higher or lower by a few pennies, Goldman gets to “buy-in” in advance of your order, then sell you the stock you ordered at a higher price, within milliseconds……………..Skimming profits on every trade that comes their way.
This is not controlling the market. It’s just legalized stealing, sanctioned by our Treasury and the SEC, working hand-in-hand to see that these “special” TBTF companies always win.
In the “old” America, these companies would have been broken up under ANTI-trust legislation. Too big to Fail is Too Big.
Goldman uses the Fed’s printing press and the co-opted regulators and so-called enforcement agencies to control the stock market. QE II isn’t going into the productive economy or infrastructure. It’s going straight to Wall Street in the form of $125 billion in free POMO gambling chips every month.
Actually, the whole “watson vs humans” jeapordy competition was skewed massively.
I mean, sure, it’s cool that the computer can parse the information and respond with a correct answer, but watsons ability to win had more to do with mechanics.
Namely, the buzzer.
As a question is read in jeapordy, the contestants almost always know the answer well before the question has been completely read. After the question has been read, a light comes on that signals you can buzz in (early buzzing in causes a slight delay before the next buzz-in, and can cost you a round, so you need to buzz in AFTER the light comes on).
The issue here is, watson is able to respond to that light turning on the instant it happens. No lag, no eye-brain-nervous system-hand-muscle movement. If you watch the match, you can see ken jennings for instance attempting to click in on almost -every single- question. In most of these instances, watson beat him to the punch and was able to answer. The few times it -didn’t- were when the computer had a poor idea of what the solution was (it didn’t buzz in).
In short, this competition was like having a lead throwing competition with a gun. Both human and gun can get the lead across the room, but clearly in a speed contest the gun is going to win.
Borders Files for Bankruptcy
New York Times website | February 16, 2011 | Michael J. de la Merced
Borders Group, the beleaguered bookseller, filed for bankruptcy protection on Wednesday after failing to secure agreements with publishers and other vendors about reorganizing its debt.
The bookseller listed $1.29 billion in debt and $1.27 billion in assets in a filing in federal bankruptcy court in Manhattan.
“It has become increasingly clear that in light of the environment of curtailed customer spending, our ongoing discussions with publishers and other vendor related parties, and the company’s lack of liquidity, Borders Group does not have the capital resources it needs to be a viable competitor and which are essential for it to move forward with its business strategy to reposition itself successfully for the long term,” Mike Edwards, Borders’ president, said in a statement.
I think there just isn’t enough demand for separate bookstores, video stores, record stores, and news stands anymore. Information is going digital, and no longer needs stuff to hold it.
What the companies selling information as stuff need to do is merge together into one company selling all of it, for those who still want it that way, complete with cafe, lounge areas and other amenities.
I remember when there were small bookstores In the
malls. Those seemed to be the perfect size for a bookstore until Borders & B&N starting building huge two story stores.
Here in Boise the Borders moved from a large location in a strip mall into a smaller store in the “mall”. I notice it’s not on the list of 200 stores being closed.
Back when I was a University of Michigan student, I spent more than a few non-class hours in the original Borders on State Street.
Oh, was that a store. Great wooden benches that you could sit on for hours. And read to your heart’s content. And classical music playing in the background. I was in heaven.
Truth be told, I wasn’t the only U-M student who was using Borders as the venue for a study break. Quite frankly, I wondered how the place stayed in business.
Then I saw people like my parents come into town and practically shop the store down. Ditto for the U-M faculty. They loved that Borders on State Street.
IMHO, if Borders had stuck to its State Street knitting, it wouldn’t have gotten into so much trouble. It could have become as successful as Powell’s in Portland. Or the Tattered Cover in Denver. Or, what the heck, Politics and Prose in DC.
Reuters reminds us of this aspect of the Border’s story.
In what has turned out to be a catastrophic mistake, Borders in 2001 outsourced its online bookselling to Amazon, waiting until 2008 to relaunch Borders.com. In the first three quarters of 2010, those sales still made up only 2 percent of Borders’ business.
For all the pure play Internet companies that failed, there were also a lot of brick and mortars that failed because they waited to long to “grok” the Internet.
Good point, ecofeco. It’s one of the key reasons why I’ve shied away from making small businesses, specifically, retail bricks/mortars, a key part of my business.
Why not? Because so few of them considered websites to be very important. And, no they’re not flocking to Facebook or Twitter as their website substitute.
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Comment by ecofeco
2011-02-16 15:28:02
I’m having exactly the same problem. Small shops have NO clue how important a website is nor how to utilize it when they do get one.
And of course the usual, too cheap to make it worth doing for them.
The housing menace: Fannie & Freddie must die now
NY Post | February 15, 2011 | STEPHEN B. MEISTER
Mind you, Fannie and Freddie have cost the taxpayers $160 billion in direct subsidies since they were taken over in August 2008. The country would be better off if they shut down today.
Housing finance is incredibly simple to get right: Require 20 percent down payments and make sure the borrowers have income of at least 2½ times their monthly nut, and guess what happens? Nothing — no defaults; no bubble.
That’s how housing markets work when the government stays out of them, and it’s how ours worked for the half century before the feds started twisting the arms of private lenders to make mortgage loans to the poor.
Just look at Canada. It has 20-percent-down loans and nothing like Fannie or Freddie — and its default rate is a 20th of ours.
Wrong, wrong, wrong. Canada has 5% down 35 year mortgages. The banks even kick back the 5% to help the property virgins fulfill the dream. C.M.H.C. is our fanny/freddy. It insures the mortgages with tax payer money. Sound familiar. Canada’s bubble is huge. The rules were changed and by mid-March you might hear a large pop south of our border. Most of you will recognize it.
Nahh. You might have a little bubble but it’s different in Canada. Really. I’d say your houses deserve a 100K premium over USA houses because of “location, location, location”. And what’s 100K a month at 5% interest on a 35 year loan? Less than 10% of the cost of an American family Blue Cross plan?
Look what you get in Canada:
1. Universal health-care I mean you guys can actually get sick and have the luxury about being able to concentrate on getting well instead of paying maybe 50K on medical stuff. In the USA 60% of BK’s involve medical bills.
2. No one hates Canadian expats.
3. You have less extreme nutballs than the USA. Do you have a Canadian Glenn Beck? If you do, I’ll bet he’s not nearly as popular as ours.
4. Canadians get 26 days paid vacation compared to USA’s 13 and have greater safety nets and vibrant, productive capitalism.
5. No wars. That’s worth something. I think I’d pay $127 a month for no wars. Or more.
6. You guys are sitting on a gold-mine of nat resources with a tiny population.
7. Canadian unemployment is way less than USA’s
8. Have you had to bail out banks? Did you fraudulently securitize mortgages to a great extent percentage wise?
1. Have you seen what we pay in taxes?
2.Ask Floridians about the Quebecois.
3.Don Cherry
4.Agreed.
5.Troops in Khandahar since 03.
6.Agreed but we are stupid and end up selling them off cheap.
7.B.S. numbers, just like you guys.
8. Feds took 600 billion off banks books and dumped it on to C.M.H.C. Taxpayer backed now.
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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-02-16 10:41:28
1. Have you seen what we (Canadians) pay in taxes?
On the whole, when one includes services received such as medical, mental health, retirements, Canadian taxes are not much higher at all for the middle-class Canadians than for middle-class Americans. However, IMO and many’s, Canadians receive more services for taxes paid. They also have much greater security when it comes to getting sick and not losing everything or not being treated.
Canada’s total governmental spending was about 36% of GDP[5] vs. 31% in the US.[3] In addition, caution must be used when comparing taxes across countries, due to the different services each offers. Whereas the Canadian healthcare system is 70% government-funded, the US system is just under 50% government-funded (mostly via Medicare and Medicaid); adding the additional healthcare-spending burden to the above figures to obtain comparable numbers (+3% for Canada, +7% for the US) gives adjusted expenditures of 38–39% of GDP for each of the two nations.
The taxes are applied the same as well. Canada’s income tax system is more heavily biased against the highest income earners, thus while Canada’s income tax rate is higher on average, the bottom fifty percent of the population is roughly taxed the same on income as in the United States. However, Canada has a national goods and services tax of 5% on most purchases, wiki
Comment by WT Economist
2011-02-16 10:56:52
A great country. I’d add that the men are nicer and women are better looking, on average, too.
The one weak point is business. Canadians are actually more entreprenuerial, as the national health scheme encourages self-employment, but the place generates few new large companies.
Perhaps it’s the small size of the market — and perhaps that’s why so many successful Canadians end up down here.
Comment by rosie
2011-02-16 10:57:12
In Ontario we have a 13% tax on most goods and services, Provincial Income Tax as well as Federal income tax. We have very high sin taxes as well. 24 beer $35.00+. The health care system is still working but under present spending trends will approach 70% of Provincial budget by 2025. And it is cold here.
Nice tribute Rio. You say a lot more than you know about Canada.
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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-02-16 11:12:37
Nice tribute Rio. You say a lot more than you know about Canada.
No BlueSkye, I was mostly correct on all my points. (sorry if that grates on you Blue Skye) See my above wiki tax quote. Let’s look again.
1. Have you seen what we pay in taxes?
Addressed above. Canadian middle-class and poor’s tax burden is similar to USA’s when including services rendered such as medical.
2.Ask Floridians about the Quebecois.
A few Floridians disliking a few Quebecois does not compare to the American expat experiences and vibe around the world. Canadians disliked as much as Americans? Not even close. I’ve never heard one anti-Canadian thing overseas in my life. You would not likely know. I do. My point here is valid.
3.Don Cherry
Of course every country has it’s far right as they should but…..Please make a case that Canadian right-wing nutjobs are as influential, hateful, mean spirited and dominate entire political parties, AM radio and networks as they do in the USA. They don’t period. My point here is valid.
4.Agreed.
Agreed (that means it’s valid I think)
5.Troops in Khandahar since 03.
A gray area however I was referring to wars such as the Iraq and Vietnam wars (less justifiable than the Afgan war) where Canadians were not much involved. Surprised BlueSky? Canada is involved in a lot less wars than America. So my point here is mostly valid.
6.Agreed but we are stupid and end up selling them (nat. resources) off cheap.
“Cheap” is a relative term, things can change and my point is valid.
7.B.S. (unemployment) numbers, just like you guys.
Canadian BS numbers look way better than USA’s BS numbers so based on what we have to base it on, I am again correct here.
8. Feds took 600 billion off banks books and dumped it on to C.M.H.C. Taxpayer backed now.
This point cannot much be held against me because I had asked questions about these matters and did not make a statement regarding them. (That is what a question mark means Blue Skye)
Sorry Blue Skye. Your point about RioAmericaninBrasil being wrong was about 85% wrong. But look at the bright side. You were 15% right. Congratulations. You’re making some slight progress against me.
Comment by Blue Skye
2011-02-16 12:46:36
Rio, if you are making any concessions at all then I was 100% correct.
3. You have less extreme nutballs than the USA. Do you have a Canadian Glenn Beck? If you do, I’ll bet he’s not nearly as popular as ours.
Believe me, the place is full of Loonies.
P.S. Typing this in Smiths Falls Ontario.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-02-16 13:08:21
Rio, if you are making any concessions at all then I was 100% correct.
I will make concessions when they are due. And yes, you being 15% correct would make your written jab 100% correct, literally.
However, whether you were 100% correct in your intended implication only you can know and I can surmise.
P.S. Typing this in 90 degrees and high humidity.
Comment by Blue Skye
2011-02-16 14:17:08
We’ve got high humidity here today too. Less a few degrees though.
File this under socialism doesn’t work anywhere it is tried.
Coming soon to America
———–
Portugal: Young generation robbed of its future
Presseurop | 2/14/2011 | José Manuel Fernandes
When the IMF intervened for the second time in Portugal, I was 26 years old. Looking back on that grim period when black flags hung over the gates of factories in suburban Lisbon and workers wondered in dismay at the months of back pay they were owed, I remember having lunch with an incorrigible optimist at the café Martinho de Arcada [in Lisbon], who made one simple remark I will never forget: “Have you noticed that, in spite of all our current problems, we are still better off than our parents generation? Remember how it was when we were little…”
He was right, and what is more, our parents’ standard of living was clearly better than the one their parents had. However, when I consider the outlook for my children and the generation to come, it is obvious that this trajectory of improvement has come to a halt. And it has come to a halt because we have ruined everything — or at least because we have contributed to a situation where no further progress is possible.
“I am from the unpaid generation” Initially, they were nicknamed the “500-euros generation,” because, although they were highly qualified, most of them were unable to find jobs that paid more than the minimum wage. But today this epithet no longer applies, because the situation is even worse. One in four young job seekers is simply unable to find work (a figure rises to one in three for higher education graduates). And notwithstanding the fact that they have completed their university studies and have degrees to show for it, a sizeable proportion of those who are employed work as taxi drivers, or in lowly paid jobs in call centres and supermarkets.
In many cases they do not even receive proper wages, but are paid with recibos verdes [the ‘green receipts’ originally designed for the remuneration of self-employed workers that have come to symbolise insecure employment in Portugal], which will soon be heavily taxed by the government. In view of this situation, most of them are forced to live at home with their parents, and are unable to settle down or take on adult responsibilities.
They are right: an internship is better than nothing, as is a job where you are only paid in luncheon vouchers. And failing that, you can always fall back on yet another post-doc scholarship, even though you know that a masters and doctorate is unlikely to improve your prospects in the working world.
If they want jobs, they will just have to wait Not to put too fine a point on it, the young people of this generation have been robbed — and we are to blame. In the fervour that followed the Carnation Revolution [which put an end to the dictatorship in 1974], the euphoria prompted by our accession to the EU [in 1986] and the suicidal consumer frenzy buoyed by low interest rates that came hot on the heels of the adoption of the single currency, one single generation disposed of the wealth of two generations to come. As it stands, public and private debt in this country has reached a level that is greater than three years of GDP, and this is the legacy that our young people will now inherit.
We want it all: job security with good salaries, regular pay-rises, shorter working hours and early retirement; first and second homes plasma TVs, and cars and mobile phone for everyone in the family. We believe that all of this is possible, and when someone has the temerity to suggest that this is not the case, we cling to our privileges like shipworms. In demanding the impossible, and with no willingness to accept the slightest compromise, we bang on about our “social entitlements” and our rights as established by the Carnation Revolution.
But look at the country that we are now handing over to the younger generation. In this land of decaying city centres, if they want homes they will have to buy them because three decades have gone by without any progress on rent laws. If they want jobs, they will just have to wait, no matter how qualified they are. There is simply no way to budge their elders who will hold on to their jobs for life. No matter how well they perform in university, they will not be able to obtain jobs their either.
Time for the “anything goes” generation to hand over power Just look at how we have pillaged the pension system that was supposed to sustain their retirement: under the terms of the 2007 Vieira da Silva reform, the best today’s young people can hope for is a pension worth only half of what their elders now receive. They may not have noticed, but it is worth wondering: what will become of the “live-at-home with mum and dad” generation in 30 or 40 years time?
Wait, are you suggesting that just because this kind of stuff is good for Wall Street, workers aged 35 and under might not be perfectly grateful to look forward to a lifetime of short-lived, $10/hour no-benefits service jobs that will barely pay their living costs?
I suppose I feel this, mostly because I’m on the cusp of that younger generation.
Today I’m faced with the fact that my family will -have- to be a dual income household to live comfortably (unlike my parents/grandparents etc who had one working household member). Job security isn’t what it used to be either. A decade or two ago my wife would have already achieved tenure as a teacher, and been extremely secure in her job. Teacher layoffs were virtually unheard of and the demand for new teachers was very high. Not exactly the case today. I’m confident I’ll be able to find a job in teaching myself when I finish up my own degree, but it’s still scary out there. There is a very real possibility that I could finish my degree and find myself unable to procure employment - ending up right back where I started.
There are plenty of teacher jobs out there - in private schools.
For public-union-insane pension-can’t be fired for anything-pay nothing for benefits-salary increases every year no matter what-retire in 25 years-every holiday off-teacher jobs….yes, those are hard to get.
Yup. Now it was a few years ago, but my brother once had one of those jobs. After graduating phi beta kappa from an ivy league school, getting a masters degree, doing a one year teaching internship at the best private school in the state, and two additional years full time teaching experience, he was making about $21,000 a year.
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Comment by 2banana
2011-02-16 14:15:03
Did he go into teaching to make alot of money or becuase he liked to teach or dealing with kids?
Or does he measure the worth of his profession by his paycheck?
Comment by Montana
2011-02-16 15:07:18
They should be paid more just for putting up with ed school courses.
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-02-16 15:22:41
They should be paid more just for putting up with ed school courses.
Were you in the same ed classes as my mother? Because you are playing her song, word for word and note for note.
Comment by polly
2011-02-16 15:41:58
He did it because he wanted to, but after a while he realized that liking something that would never allow you to support yourself (my parents had to supplement his salary) wasn’t viable. Loving your work is nice. Not mooching off your family for the rest of your life is mandatory. He went to grad school (again) and is now a tenured professor. I think he liked teaching kids and advising the hiking club more.
Your comment that people who want to teach should do it in private schools is great if we decide that only people with trust funds and/or highly paid spouses should be teachers.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-02-16 15:54:34
Your comment that people who want to teach should do it in private schools is great if we decide that only people with trust funds and/or highly paid spouses should be teachers.
It seem that many have decided to make the decision to be the deciders.
Comment by jane
2011-02-17 00:17:33
I hope more trust fund babies take this route. Go into teaching, that is. They are, IMHO, likely to be better educated themselves. Speak grammatically, have a grasp of the classics, understand that you actually have to do more that BS and jive to understand math, have actual expertise in the subject matter in which they teach.
IMO, the teachers’ unions have dumbed education down to the lowest common denominator, so as not to jeopardize their membership with termination for incompetence. The more nonunionized teachers we get going forward, the better, at least given the current construct.
Dumb teachers are well suited to the objectives of a corporatist/fascist state, for which an ignorant population is a requirement. A dumpkopff (?sp?) is more easily manipulated than somebody who knows enough to question premises. While the PTB was working to dumb us down, they discovered indebtedness was an an an additional asset.
The desired end state? A mass of dumb, broke, indebted sheeple, who would gladly claw at one another for the crumbs left over from the PTB, while rushing to do their bidding.
The joke’s on us, and IMHO, ignorant teachers are a large part of the problem.
Comment by Carl Morris
2011-02-17 07:05:27
The desired end state? A mass of dumb, broke, indebted sheeple, who would gladly claw at one another for the crumbs left over from the PTB, while rushing to do their bidding.
The new slavery. You don’t even have to provide them with the very basics in most cases, it can just be their problem.
I wish you the best of luck Incinerate…I bothers me to see your generation do what you were asked to do (get an education) and then the opportunities not being there for you after keeping your end of the bargain…
Well, I was successful without the degree and I’m confident I’ll be fine either way. Hell, working as a teacher will inevitably be a pay cut for me (worth it for the better lifestyle though).
I -would- hate to get there and have the rug pulled out from under me though. I’d feel pretty unhappy if I went through all this trouble to end up right where I started.
You know, I’d have started a business instead - but don’t even get me started on how ridiculously difficult it is to start a -real- business these days. So many hoops, bonding, regulations, expenses. If you’re trying to do anything beyond you’re front door you’re going to run smack into a protectionist racket the likes of which the US and the world has never seen. Sad really. Look at our history of entrepreneurship. Some of the most successful companies today wouldn’t be possible to build from the ground up in the current regulatory environment. The bar is set too high for the little guy to bootstrap. I wanted to do something simple and relatively inexpensive (without regulatory baloney, maybe 20k in startup costs), and discovered that the hoops I had to jump through to get things off the ground were completely unrealistic. I needed a piece or property for them to inspect before I even had a license to do business, a ridiculously large bond, expensive licenses that practically required blood ritual to acquire.
If I was just able to go get started - the way my father and grandfather could, I’d be -just- fine. Yet, people keep telling me America’s entrepreneurial spirit is going to see us through this. Sigh.
A lot of us are in that situation: get the education, and then get tossed out on the street so some manager can get a bigger bonus… nope, no jobs out there… none at all - but that was the goal of the Powers That Be all along.
I have no doubt that the fact that they are doing quite well in the current economic climate, despite their socialeest/commie, workers paradise, is driving a lot of neocons to distraction.
Weren’t they supposed fail sometime over the last 20 years?
File this under “We’ll kick this can so far down the road that the our grandkids’ great grandchildern will never see it”. That is pretty much the plan, I think.
File this under socialism doesn’t work anywhere it is tried. Coming soon to America
2banana, I’m sure you’re a pretty decent fellow and maybe even fun to have a beer with but your perception of what is really going on in America in regards to your “socialism” terror has to be based on ignorance to what the concept means and what is actually going on in America. Now I didn’t say you were stupid. I said you were ignorant to many realities on this subject but relax. Everyone including myself is ignorant of many things.
Now I’m going to prove what I just said by stating two facts and asking you to reconcile the two. You will not be able to do so in a satisfactory manner thereby proving my point that you are ignorant when you constantly imply the USA is going “socialist”.
Fact 1:
socialism definition: a theory or system of social organization that advocates the vesting of the ownership and control of the means of production and distribution, of capital, land, etc., in the community as a whole. dictionary dot com.
Fact 2: “America (has a) bubbling 30-year wealth gap, where the top 1% went from owning 9% of America’s wealth to owning 23%” source: marketwatch dot com
Now 2banana, please reconcile the above 2 facts inline with your often espoused theory that America is or is going “socialist”.
You can’t because if America were truly going socialist. The wealth gap would have narrowed the past thirty years but it has not. 30 years ago the richest 1% owned 9% of the wealth. Today they have 23% of the wealth.
I look forward to the logic of your response to my question.
There’s theory and practice. The dictionary provides the theory and the elite parasites in society provide the practice.
Blue Skye: your statement has not much to do with my challenge for someone to reconcile these three simple things:
1. The definition of “socialism”: “the ownership and control of the means of production and distribution, of capital, land, etc., in the community as a whole.”
2. In America, 30 years ago the richest 1% owned 9% of the wealth. Today they have 23% of the wealth.
and 3. The constant spouting that the USA is turning socialistic.
Ready? Reconcile.
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Comment by Liz Pendens
2011-02-16 11:40:52
Look to #2 and you can answer your own question: In response to the widenig rift our government has chosen to “fill the gap” with government cheese/programs for the demoted middle class. While catering to the benefit of the top level, the gowing number of peasants gets more controlled/managed. A disturbing trend toward socialism/corporatism/corruptism/bankster owns your ass-ism, whatever you want to call it.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-02-16 11:55:09
Look to #2 and you can answer your own question:
Well, you’re making more sense than others so far but you still didn’t reconcile the three points above I challenged to be reconciled.
Don’t worry. Because they can’t be.
Comment by Blue Skye
2011-02-16 12:39:34
My point Rio is that Socialism is only a cloak, as is Capitalism, for the very same type of wolves. When dishonest men rise to power, it doesn’t matter what you call their supposed program.
You could call the Scottish Clearances Socialism if you wanted to. Wouldn’t change anything.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-02-16 13:28:21
My point Rio is that Socialism is only a cloak, as is Capitalism, for the very same type of wolves. When dishonest men rise to power, it doesn’t matter what you call their supposed program.
Here why the words and labels matter at this particular time in American history.
The greatest damage done to our country at this time, is from outsourcing, the decline of wages and good jobs, the intense concentration of wealth and a horrible health insurance system and these problems were NOT caused by socialism. How could they have been?
These problems were caused by out of control capitalism. If you can’t identify the problem, of which words are a key tool to identification, then how can you solve the problem?
Tell me how outsourcing, decline of wages, lack of good jobs, the concentration wealth and lousy health insurance was caused by socialism’s oversimplified definition of “sharing the wealth” or its implication of “looking out for the majority of people”??
We’ve seen the results of 40 years of wild west unregulated capitalism and it’s been GREAT for 1% of us but is destroying most of us.
If we don’t recognize, define and guard against what is killing us, and words and definitions help to do so, well then we will be killed.
Comment by Blue Skye
2011-02-16 14:15:10
I don’t believe you will awaken anyone with wrongly applied labels. The villian here is not either of those two philosophies of government. You can have a great government in the parlor and leave the back door of the kitchen open. Let’s call our system Stupidism or Enablism.
The problem with wealth sharing schemes is that even if we took Bill Gates money and “shared” it globally, this only amounts to some $7 each. Worse it is doubtful Bill would have really bothered going past a certain point, so the wealth would never have existed at all.
Fact: In every socialist scoiety - there are those who exempt themselves from the rules and live large.
Happened and is happening today in the USSR, China, Cuba, North Korea, etc.
If you been to quite a few socialist and communist countries in my lifetime.
Socialism works for the few and gives misery to many.
The “few” are connected to those in power and that is their ONLY requirment to the good life.
Getting to be like that in America today - bankers, union leaders, TBTF corporate leaders, etc will NOT live under the same rules they expect us to live under.
Do you really think obama or any democrat leader or any union leader is going to wait 5 hours in line to see a government doctor???
But they damn will expect you to follow the rules.
“Democracy and socialism have nothing in common but one word: equality. But notice the difference: while democracy seeks equality in liberty, socialism seeks equality in restraint and servitude.”
–Alexis de Tocqueville
Getting to be like that in America today - bankers, union leaders, TBTF corporate leaders, etc will NOT live under the same rules they expect us to live under.
As I say, those who cry “socialism” in America are ignorant to its meaning.
Also, if people like you really mean what you just said above, you would be in the streets screaming bloody murder about the bankers, bailouts, offshoring, CEO pay, monopolies, lobbyists and big money ruling everything. You damn sure would not be voting Republican.
Instead I hear your group screaming about kids now being able to qualify for health insurance with pre-existing conditions as “Soshalism!!”
Fact: In every corporatist scoiety - there are those who exempt themselves from the rules and live large.
Happened and is happening today in the USSR, China, Cuba, South Korea, etc.
If you been to quite a few corporatist and crony capitalist countries in my lifetime.
Corporatist capitalism works for the few and gives misery to many.
The “few” are connected to those in power and that is their ONLY requirment to the good life.
Getting to be like that in America today - bankers, business leaders, TBTF corporate leaders, etc will NOT live under the same rules they expect us to live under.
Do you really think John Boner or any republican leader or any business leader is going to wait 5 hours in line to see a privatized doctor???
But they damn will expect you to follow the rules.
“Democracy and corporatist capitalism have nothing in common but one word: equality. But notice the difference: while democracy seeks equality in liberty, coporatist capitalism seeks equality in restraint and servitude.”
That Army microbiologist who committed suicide after the FBI said they had scientific proof he sent the 2001 anthrax letters? Turns out they sort of made that up.
Duh! I can remember McCain on Letterman right after 9/11 saying Iraq was behind the attack and Colin Powell holding up anthrax at the UN to prove Iraq has biological weapons.
I guess the anthrax attacks along with the location of Bin Ladin will forever be a 9/11 mystery.
Filed under: “Something new was “deliberately” tossed into the “Truth, and only the Truth so help you Karen.”…gearbox:
Watchdog joins Daily Pilot in calling for release of emails
February 15th, 2011 by Tony Saavedra, OC Register investigative reporter
In this new tug-of-war over emails, the Pilot need not feel alone. The Watchdog hears that the information is even ungettable by school board members. This is ridiculous, that not only the taxpayers but the people elected by the taxpayers are being kept in the dark.
The Watchdog is adding its bark to the crusade by our brethren at the Daily Pilot to obtain e-mails between Newport-Mesa schools chief Jeffrey Hubbard — who is on paid leave, facing criminal charges of misappropriation — and board president Walter Davenport. The Pilot’s request under the California Public Records Act was rejected by the Newport-Mesa Unified School District under the argument that they are exempt due to the “deliberative process privilege.”
Peter Scheer, executive director of the First Amendment Coalition, offers this translation: “When agencies can’t find anything in the law that allows them to withhold information, they resort to the deliberative process privilege.”
“Implementation of the Affordable Care Act of 2010 presents a major challenge to the IRS.
“The Internal Revenue Service says it will need an battalion of 1,054 new auditors and staffers and new facilities at a cost to taxpayers of more than $359 million in fiscal 2012 just to watch over the initial implementation of President Obama’s healthcare reforms. Among the new corps will be 81 workers assigned to make sure tanning salons pay a new 10 percent excise tax. ”
That’s Affordability that we can believe in! $300K per staffer.
I love the outrage over tanning salon tax! Like it’s some national strategic resource!
On the other hand, it makes me realize just how effed up we are to apply ANY importance to it. Let’s get outraged over scrapbook and pirate stores while we’re at it, shall we?
I was just watching CNBC. One year ago the Mortgage Bankers Association short sold their building for $41 million. Today the people who bought it sold it for $100 million.
They finally put the fire out near my house. Fire chief says the fire was started “suspiciously.” No mention that the owner of the land recently declared bankruptcy.
Housing starts rebound
Permits fall as expected, though after a strong gain in December as builders rushed to avoid building-code changes in several key states.
Your average realtor does not have his/her “stuff” together enough to be valuable to any sophisticated organization of gangsters. The ones I know are just plain dumb parrots/followers who try just about any new get-rich-quick scheme that comes along. They spend more time on their image than anything else. Even they can’t tell when they are lying.
I see the average realtor as nothing more than a sales and marketing associate. When you walk in the door, their job is to convince you to buy a house. No different than a used car salesman or someone at a menswear shop trying to sell you a suit.
Due to the nature of the business, they know a bit about housing, and they know how to fill in the forms and how to use MRIS. And they know how to cash the commission checks, of course. But I would venture a guess that most of them don’t think much about the big picture. Especially if the big picture tells them that they might be out of business soon (how would you reconcile the knowledge that there is a bubble with trying to sell someone a house today so that you can pay your own mortgage)…
A Couple of Non-Realtor Thoughts on Today’s Housing Market:
This is a REALLY bad time to buy a house. Here’s why:
1. We are at historic interest rate lows. Never mind that we are at historic interest rate lows because of the insane policies of the Federal Reserve. The fact is, as interest rates rise from here, house prices will fall, as the how-much-a-month equation results in lower “affordable” purchase prices for the same monthly payment.
2. Property taxes will not fall at the same rate at house prices. School districts and local governments are strapped for cash and a homeowner is literally one of the few sitting ducks they can target for revenue.
3. Unemployment and under-employment are rising. When you hear that the “jobless rate” is falling, don’t believe it. Not “counting” those who have exhausted their 99 weeks of unemployment is an insult to your intelligence. And to compare 50,000 “new” minimum wage jobs
with 50,000 “old” 50K per year jobs is likewise just stupidity.
4. The next generation doesn’t want to live in the older generation’s used housing. Stucco McMansions are the new Edsels and Nehru jackets.
5. The “baby-boomers” are tapped out and ready to move into the kid’s basements. Don’t expect anything except selling pressure on real estate from them.
6. The shadow inventory banks hold would supply the market for the next 50 years. Any losses they take will be borne by the taxpayers in general. Any loss YOU take will take will also belong to YOU.
7. The exploded myth that real estate is a great investment or that it “only goes up” will have more fallout than a 20 megaton U238 bomb.
And just about the same half-life. Longer than most of us will ever live.
These are my lucky 7 for the Happy Horse$hit Realty crowd today.
Maybe there should be many more, but you get the idea.
To nitpick, U238 is not used for A-bombs: the other isotope U235 is the active ingredient. However U238 may be used to jacket an H-bomb since a chain reaction isn’t needed there - plenty of neutrons flying around by that time.
A bit more elaboration on point #4: We know that #4 goes far beyond what’s “in” or “out” - there’s a huge environmental component to that item as well. So not only won’t many of the younger want some those houses, many probably can’t even justify their cost/location.
As for #2: Well, we don’t see very many “silver lining” stories anymore, do we? You know the ones, the stories where loanowners tried to rationalize their predicament by opining that their taxes would follow their assessed values downward.
I agree with your premise here, but my payment based upon these historic low rates is less than half what equivalent rent on the property would be (lower than rent on my former small apartment even). A 15 year loan was less than my rent, it’s tough not to justify that…
“2. Property taxes will not fall at the same rate at house prices.”
Already seen this, and you’re right. It’s just part of the package, nothing much can be done about it.
“3. Unemployment and under-employment are rising.”
You’re right. I tried to marginalize this worry by purchasing in a relatively affluent neighborhood and city, but there is a real possibility of a unemployment crisis the likes of which america has -never- seen. It’s sortof out of my hands though - it really had no bearing on my decision making process.
“4. The next generation doesn’t want to live in the older generation’s used housing. ”
Agreed. I wouldn’t even look at them - around here they are all built on illegal immigrant labor for the lowest possible expense. They are HORRIFYINGLY under insulated, and essentially made up of sticks and stucco. You can call up the electric company about a house and find out it’s average energy bill - it’s downright SCARY on some of this new construction out here in AZ.
I picked up a quality home built back in the 70’s. Block, low slung, white roof, properly insulated, no giant vaulted rooms and proper climate controlled spaces, even an evap cooler sitting next to it’s A/C unit for the dry months (big savings), it’s built -properly- for a desert setting.
“5. The “baby-boomers” are tapped out and ready to move into the kid’s basements. ”
I’ve come to terms with the likelihood of having to one day house my father and likely my wife’s parents (my grandparents are thankfully fairly well off in the grand scheme of things and shouldn’t need further assistance). It is what it is. Course, can’t get a basement here in AZ, they are a bit rare….
“6. The shadow inventory banks hold would supply the market for the next 50 years.”
Maybe. It is what it is…. I’ve still got to live somewhere :).
“7. The exploded myth that real estate is a great investment or that it “only goes up” will have more fallout than a 20 megaton U238 bomb.”
AZ is a non recourse state, so worst case scenario I’ve still got an out. In the meantime, the house is 2x my wife’s income and the payment is stupid low even compared to local rents, for a home situated among the best schools and neighborhoods in the region. It’s making the best out of the situation, and if it winds up being a bad move, I’ll chalk it up to the best laid plans and walk away none worse for wear.
But yeah, buying a house right now is still probably the wrong move :). I think it was the right step for my family but I wouldn’t go around recommending it to everyone.
I usually have CNBC on as background noise. Today I was struck by the intelligence of this young guy. Here’s his 15-page investor letter. Well worth reading.
Does Debt Matter?
We spend a lot of time thinking about and discussing systemic risk. This is not because we are natural pessimists; rather, we believe that many investors cannot see the forest for the trees as they get caught up in the short-lived euphoria of the markets.
We ask ourselves, and urge you to ask yourself one simple question: Does debt matter? It was excess leverage and credit growth that brought the global economy to its knees. Since 2002, global credit has grown at an annualized rate of approximately 11%, while real GDP has grown approximately 4% over the same time frame - credit growth has outstripped real GDP growth by an astounding 275%. We believe that debt will matter like it has every time since the dawn of financial history. Without a resolution of this global debt burden, systemic risk will fester and grow.
The truth is that all people from anywhere in the World just want freedom and a decent lifestyle above poverty . However, this innate God given desire to improve ones life is distorted because Leaders ,Religious groups , and Money Men want to steal money while they distract the people from their real objectives . It’s all brainwashing . Keep the people in line like cattle
with very little and convince them that some enemy is the culprit .Was Egypt anything but a slavery Country with a small percentage getting the
lions share and pull out the big guns if they get out of line .Corruption is
what rules these Countries and that’s the name of the game .
That being said ,these Countries with population problems can’t ignore
that this factor is reducing opportunity . If a Country /people doesn’t believe in population control ,than poverty is a given . It boils down to people have to be responsible for their own lives if they have democracy
and freedom of choice .
In that America is becoming pretty corrupt itself ,you can’t say that America doesn’t need correction also . The breakdown of economic and political systems is occurring World-wide .However people have become contorted because of whatever Political and economic system their Country had ,if you have freedom you have to have the personal responsibility that goes with it . America is a laughing
stock regarding that concept of personal responsibility lately and stacked decks and policies made with monopolies and self-interest lobbyist controlling the outcome isn’t constructive .Anyway ,I don’t know what’s going to happen ,but these are interesting times to say the least IMHO .
“Keep the people in line like cattle with very little and convince them that some enemy is the culprit .”
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
Medicare spokesman: ‘We’re overpaying’ for medical supplies.
Raleigh, N.C. — If a wheelchair costs $160, why would Medicare pay eight times as much? That’s the question one local woman asked after her elderly father needed a wheelchair to get around.
As a WRAL investigation found, it’s all in the way Congress set up the spending plan.
A wheelchair seemed like a simple purchase for Jeanne Gunter’s 95-year old-father when he moved to assisted living, but she soon learned that Medicare’s payment system is not so simple.
Medicare rents to own equipment, such as wheelchairs. One wheelchair, for example, costs $104 a month for up to 13 months, which is about $1,300 total. Providers must maintain the liability to repair the chair during the 13 months of rental.
“We could’ve bought a wheelchair,” Gunter said. “I looked at a local pharmacy and looked at a wholesale club, and you could easily get one for $150 to $200 comparable to what we have.”
Laurence Wilson, director at Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, said he thinks Medicare is “overpaying substantially for wheelchairs.”
Wilson said he blames medical supply companies and their powerful lobbies for allowing $1,300 wheelchairs. The rent-to-own plan started with the idea that some people only need equipment for a short time. Still, at those wheelchair prices, Medicare only breaks even if a patient needs a wheelchair for a month or two.
Medicare has a rent-to-own policy for most durable medical supplies, such as hospital beds, CPAP machines for sleep apnea and power wheelchairs.
Medicare rents to own equipment, such as wheelchairs. One wheelchair, for example, costs $104 a month for up to 13 months, which is about $1,300 total. Providers must maintain the liability to repair the chair during the 13 months of rental.
And this is the part that galls me.
I used to fix bicycles for a part-time job, and our shop also did wheelchair work. For the most part, it was the same as our bike work. We fixed flat tires. Not exactly rocket science.
Rebuilding wheels? Not that difficult either. Reason: Wheelchair wheels have radial spoke designs, and those are a breeze to work on.
A wheel chair is no more complicated nor costly to make than a bicycle.
If wheelchairs had more than one speed, I’d say that you have an argument on the “complicated” part. As for cost, well, the bicycle industry was/is one of the planet’s biggest offshore-ers. Went to China back in the 1990s.
Remember that family friend I was telling you about yesterday? The USMC veteran double amputee who’s now running marathons?
He wants to get into triathlons. Any advice on the bicycle? I’m tempted to recommend a recumbent, just to keep him lower to the ground so his wife won’t worry so much.
* “Our only political party has two right wings, one called Republican, the other Democratic. But Henry Adams figured all that out back in the 1890s. ‘We have a single system,’ he wrote, and ‘in that system the only question is the price at which the proletariat is to be bought and sold, the bread and circuses.”
Last Sept, the Repub successfully blocked a Dem bill that would have ended tax breaks for offshoring jobs. Tax breaks that were then to be given to local businesses for hiring.
The stock market us up today apparently because the Fed just hiked its GDP estimate. Could the falling dollar alone make us more productive on paper? Is this really a good thing?
An Oldie But A Goodie - “New York Crimes” The Way They Used to Be.
Just got around to reading my September 20, 1899 copy of the New York Times. Here’s some sensational criminality from back then:
“Boy Prisoner’s Daring Escape
Toney Dessino, a fourteen-year-old Italian boy living at 32 Thompson Street, was sentenced yesterday morning to the Catholic Protectorate for stealing a pie. While he was being held in the Gerry society room in the Criminal Courts building, he crawled over the iron bars of a window in the room, jumped thirty-five feet to the pavement in his bare feet, and was off like a deer. The police are looking for him.”
The Democrats’ faithful public service union voting bloc is discovering that the Democrat Wing of the Republicrat Party has no qualms about executing Wall Street’s order to throw these expendables under the bus. Shock! Horror! Awakening!
Looks like the scales are going to be falling from more than a few sheeple’s eyes as this plays out. Getting 10,000 Americans to put down the remote and protest is no minor feat.
Getting 10,000 Americans to put down the remote and protest is no minor feat.
Especially in WI at this time of the year. That’s the state where winter comes to visit, drinks all your beer, eats all your food, then passes out on your sofa and doesn’t wake up for seven months.
Fed More Confident in Recovery, Unhappy on Jobs- Reuters
US Federal Reserve officials are increasingly confident of the economic recovery but remain unsatisfied with the healing of the job market, minutes of their January meeting released on Wednesday showed.
Financial crooks brought down the world’s economy — but the feds are doing more to protect them than to prosecute them
Over drinks at a bar on a dreary, snowy night in Washington this past month, a former Senate investigator laughed as he polished off his beer.
“Everything’s fucked up, and nobody goes to jail,” he said. “That’s your whole story right there. Hell, you don’t even have to write the rest of it. Just write that.”
I put down my notebook. “Just that?”
“That’s right,” he said, signaling to the waitress for the check. “Everything’s fucked up, and nobody goes to jail. You can end the piece right there.”
Nobody goes to jail. This is the mantra of the financial-crisis era, one that saw virtually every major bank and financial company on Wall Street embroiled in obscene criminal scandals that impoverished millions and collectively destroyed hundreds of billions, in fact, trillions of dollars of the world’s wealth — and nobody went to jail. Nobody, that is, except Bernie Madoff, a flamboyant and pathological celebrity con artist, whose victims happened to be other rich and famous people.
The rest of them, all of them, got off. Not a single executive who ran the companies that cooked up and cashed in on the phony financial boom — an industrywide scam that involved the mass sale of mismarked, fraudulent mortgage-backed securities — has ever been convicted. Their names by now are familiar to even the most casual Middle American news consumer: companies like AIG, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. Most of these firms were directly involved in elaborate fraud and theft. Lehman Brothers hid billions in loans from its investors. Bank of America lied about billions in bonuses. Goldman Sachs failed to tell clients how it put together the born-to-lose toxic mortgage deals it was selling. What’s more, many of these companies had corporate chieftains whose actions cost investors billions — from AIG derivatives chief Joe Cassano, who assured investors they would not lose even “one dollar” just months before his unit imploded, to the $263 million in compensation that former Lehman chief Dick “The Gorilla” Fuld conveniently failed to disclose. Yet not one of them has faced time behind bars.
Instead, federal regulators and prosecutors have let the banks and finance companies that tried to burn the world economy to the ground get off with carefully orchestrated settlements — whitewash jobs that involve the firms paying pathetically small fines without even being required to admit wrongdoing. To add insult to injury, the people who actually committed the crimes almost never pay the fines themselves; banks caught defrauding their shareholders often use shareholder money to foot the tab of justice. “If the allegations in these settlements are true,” says Jed Rakoff, a federal judge in the Southern District of New York, “it’s management buying its way off cheap, from the pockets of their victims.”
There was an opportunity for Obama, and any politician willing to stick their neck out for the American people, to hammer these pigs into oblivion, clawing back all the money, and sending their rotten asses to prison for the rest of their lives. Instead, Obama got on his knees, and turned into Wall Street’s little whore.
Wall Street owned Obama from the beginning of his George Soros-orchestrated Presidential campaign. Goldman Sachs was his #2 campaign contributer (BP was #1). Brand Obama was a marketing triumph to the credulous hope ‘n change morons. Granted, having “McSame” and his sucubus running mate Sarah Palin as the alternative made the outcome a foregone conclusion in typical “Bad and Worse” fashion, as are all the contrived Republicrat puppet shows called elections. My point is, there was never a time where Obama WASN’T Wall Street’s errand boy. Or McCain/Palin, for that matter.
The SEC, Wall St., and every large financial institution knew Madoff and Stanford were engaging in illegal activity, but as long as the gravy was good, they couldn’t care less. I want to see prosecutions, and hard time, but we’re getting none of it. I want to see the likes of Lloyd Blankfein, etc., weeping, soiling themselves on death row, convicted of domestic terrorism.
I want to see the likes of Lloyd Blankfein, etc., weeping, soiling themselves on death row, convicted of domestic terrorism.
It is very telling that the various champions of “free-markets” don’t press for the same.
Why? Because they are a lie. They are a sham. Their whole ilk is a crock of hypocritical, greedy, self-serving, dirty-dealing, immoral, lying, thieving, traitorous scum from the bottom of the filthy hole of an outhouse.
Yep Grizzly I want to see the same thing you do .I just can’t get over what those creeps did . It really is domestic terrorism as you said . I guess they expect us to pretend it didn’t happen and all is well and
who cares if there are severe consequences because the idea is they should be saved and allowed to flourish again at the expense of anybody but them . It’s just not acceptable on any level .
I’m not buying into this massive Bernanke liquidity bubble driven “recovery.” The stock market is back to “always going up” like it did prior to the 2008 crash, fuel prices are surging and the highest EVER for this time of year, unemployment remains at eye-popping levels with no sign of waning- government lies notwithstanding, the cost of food is rocketing up, builders have resumed building in markets that are still falling after the brief blip up adding to an already massively bulging supply, foreclosures continue at record levels with housing prices continuing to deteriorate, the Middle East looks ready to explode into revolt which could send oil prices parabolic, banks books are as cooked as they can be with further losses a foregone conclusion due to exposure to bad loans, local governments are broke, and our national debt is out of control. Tell me where the good news is.
If history is any guide, it will be the hardest on the up and coming exporter (China) than on the Old World importer (USA). Last round we took it the worst. Only the thoughts of others that make some sense to me.
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I call BS on the straw man notion of the government requiring 20 pct down payments. There is no need for them to do so, as private banks trying to protect themselves against falling knife collateral risk are completely up to the task of setting prudent down payment requirements all by themselves.
* BUSINESS
* FEBRUARY 16, 2011
Banks Push Home Buyers to Put Down More Cash
By S. MITRA KALITA
The down payments demanded by banks to buy homes have ballooned since the housing bust, forcing many people to rethink what they can afford and potentially shrinking the pool of eligible buyers.
As housing prices drop, mortgage lenders are requiring larger downpayments on homes. Kelsey Hubbard talks to WSJ’s Mitra Kalita about what the changes mean for consumers.
Last week, the Obama administration called for gradually raising down payments to a minimum of 10% on conventional loans, meaning those that can be bought or guaranteed by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And mortgage data show that private lenders are already pushing sharply higher the required down payments, mainly to mitigate their risk as home prices continue to fall.
The median down payment in nine major U.S. cities rose to 22% last year on properties purchased through conventional mortgages, according to an analysis for The Wall Street Journal by real-estate portal Zillow.com. That percentage doubled in three years and represents the highest median down payment since the data were first tracked in 1997.
The move to force home buyers to lay out more cash is driven mostly by banks, who have found that larger down payments discourage delinquencies by increasing the buyers’ exposure to loss and reducing the impact of declining prices. Many home buyers placed little, if anything, down during the boom.
A 2009 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis study concluded buyers who made smaller down payments were more likely to default during “unfavorable economic circumstances, such as a housing market slowdown or job loss.”
Higher borrowing costs and heftier down payments could send housing prices falling further. Last week, 30-year fixed mortgage rates rose to 5.05%, their highest level since April. “If there is a scenario where the government talks about raising down payments to 20% on conventional loans, you would absolutely crush the housing market,” said Peter Norden, chief executive of Real Estate Mortgage Network Inc., an Edison, N.J., brokerage.
…
“The move to force home buyers to lay out more cash is driven mostly by banks, who have found…”
The banks are sending 95% of the paper to the GSEs.
Which raises an interesting question: What will the banks do with their mortgage paper when the GSEs are unwound? Sell it to Wall Street, I suppose?
“What will the banks do with their mortgage paper when the GSEs are unwound?”
whatever is put into place to replace them will buy the mortgages.
The names will be changed to protect the innocent.
Innocent?
Banks, as a rule, do not keep loans anymore. They can sell them to GSEs for securitizing or they can sell them to an investment bank for securitizing. If most of the loans cannot be purchased by the GSEs (either because they cease to exist or the volume of loans they are allowed to purchase is limited), then the rest of the loans will have to conform with the requirements the investment banks demand to securitize them.
The investment banks won’t buy them unless they are sure they can sell the bonds made out of the securitization pool. In order to make these bonds safe enough to sell, they are going to require a lot of protection. A few years ago, that protection was left to “real estate prices only go up.” New paradigm? Well, 20% downpayment and a loan of no more than 3 times confirmed income (less being better) seems a good start.
It isn’t back to the “character” component of the old loans where the bank was going to keep the loan on its books and wanted to know what sort of person you were, but those standards left people living in communities where bank managers didn’t live without much chance to prove themselves. This method, assuming it can ever settle in, will be good enough. You shouldn’t have to be friends with the bank manager to get a loan.
loan of no more than 3 times confirmed income (less being better) seems a good start ??
Hmmm…So I need to make $200,000. per year to get a $600,000. loan ??
Outside of California and Manhattan, that DOESN’T sound like crazytalk.
How about making it at least break even before you are approved?
No more of these condozes that state it costs $3300 to buy yet we will rent it to you for $2200 a month….
“Hmmm…So I need to make $200,000. per year to get a $600,000. loan ??”
Uhhh, yeah. If you don’t make $200,000 per year, you should not be shopping for $600k houses.
Residential real estate loans could become like CRE’s which typically are reset every 5 to 7 years in terms of collateral value, interest rates and credit qualification.
That will put a giant hitch in the residential real estate git-a-long, no doubt.
Maybe the banks want to get in on the income stream again as it once was, now that the volume and frequency of transactions is on the decline?
“What will the banks do with their mortgage paper when the GSEs are unwound?”
I tihink the plan is that by the time the GSEs are unwound, hyperinflation will have kicked in and the millions of crumbling, vacant houses can be sold for several million dollars apiece giving Wall Street some of the fattest profits and most legendary bonuses in the history of all crime.
Ding ding ding!!!
We have a winner, folks!
An optimist believes we live in the best of times…
A pessimist fears that to be true.
On the bright side the mortgage payment will become tiny.
Unfortunately buying food will require 120% of most household budgets.
“On the bright side the mortgage payment will become tiny.”
More on the bright side: Housing purchased with tiny mortgage payments will become increasingly affordable.
Unfortunately buying food will require 120% of most household budgets ??
I could grow 100% of sustainable food necessary for my family in my backyard…
Ever watch an old Brit Sitcom called “The Good Neighbors”?
The “Good Life”
“The “Good Life””
That’s what it was in the UK. I believe, for some reason they renamed it when broadacast on PBS in the US.
Maybe you missed my post yesterday about FSAB extending the 2008 rule that lets anyone holding MBS paper gets to value it at 100% face value completely disconnected from the underlying real asset value. This is the way the new private mortgage market will be structured. At some point Moodys will give in and bless this stuff and it will be stuffed into pension plans and other ‘public’ funds and holdings.
Another HBB moment. “No one could see it coming.”
They did? God, I knew I hated those guys for a reason. For how long? Is there any hope that they will require things to be stated both ways as the start of a transition to getting rid of it completely? Please?
Can I artificially inflate the value of my assets to pretend I’m much stronger than I am, and leverage that into greater power too?
“Can I artificially inflate the value of my assets to pretend I’m much stronger than I am,…”
Do you own a printing press technology?
“What will the banks do with their mortgage paper when the GSEs are unwound? ”
Fannie and Freddie aren’t going anywhere.
By Bethany McLean
Slate
“….the decrease in loan limits and the increase in down payments are “clearly not enough to ‘wind down Fannie and Freddie,’” Amherst Securities concluded in a recent report.
Another way to think about the plan is that the administration has thrown down a gauntlet. The Republicans can pick it up or not. Probably they won’t. (There’s a reason the GOP isn’t protesting the plan.) The housing market looks right now as though it will head downward again. No politician wants to be blamed for that. And as HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan has pointed out, a plunging housing market would increase Fannie and Freddie’s losses, because the homes they sold would be worth less, and because more borrowers would default on their mortgages.
Another obstacle to quick action is that if the government were to make it clear, right now, that it wanted Fannie and Freddie’s business to shrink, then the rating agencies might downgrade Fannie and Freddie’s debt. That would immediately throw the housing market into a tailspin, because Fannie and Freddie would no longer be able to raise money to guarantee new mortgages. In a recent report, Moody’s said that even if “political consensus [began] building around a plausible scenario that diminishes [Fannie and Freddie's] importance,” the government would have to explicitly guarantee Fannie and Freddie’s debt in order to maintain their current triple-A rating. Doing so would add trillions to an already out-of-control national debt.
Given this unappetizing platter of options, the Obama administration and Congress are likely to do nothing. At the Brookings Institution, one questioner asked Geithner how he would answer the charge that “this is never going to happen.” Geithner began: “Well, I think that’s a good question.”
http://www.slate.com/id/2285233/pagenum/all/#p2
Everyone can see the emperor is naked at this point, but nobody has yet figured out exactly how to clothe him.
The entire system is corrupt and foundering.
We have the political class that we voted for and deserve.
I didn’t think I would ever do this, I have to out Prof Bear.
“Last week, the Obama administration called for gradually raising down payments to a minimum of 10% on conventional loans, meaning those that can be bought or guaranteed by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”
Obama’s not requiring the banks to do anything; he’s merely telling banks: If your paper doesn’t put down 10%, then F/F/gov won’t buy your paper. Sounds to me like Obama is also “completely up to the task of setting prudent down payment requirements.”
btw, whatever happened to the rumor that forensic accountants at F/F were rooting out fraudlent (liar) loans and forcing the banks buy those loans back? That’s a big chunk of the losses, imo, and the story never took off.
‘Obama is also “completely up to the task of setting prudent down payment requirements.”’
I don’t know; why are private banks requiring twice as much as F&F’s supposedly-prudent requirements? If 10% were truly adequate to cover the falling-knife collateral risk, wouldn’t private banks stop there, rather than potentially pricing themselves out of the market w/ 20%+ downpayment requirements?
I smell a subsidy in the taxpayer-covered risk of higher loss rates on mortgages with only 10% down. And then there is the FHA (3.5% downpayment requirement) — certainly there is a taxpayer-funded risk subsidy on those!
“why are private banks requiring twice as much as F&F’s supposedly-prudent requirements?”
my question exactly…prudent is not the word for this adminsitration’s economic/monetary policy (or the last administration’s either.)
Finding the liar loans is long, tedious, slow work. It may be happening. It might not be. But even if it is happening, you are not going to hear about it for a long time. I wouldn’t expect the report to be out for another two or three years and even that would be a “what we have done so far” thing unless the loans they are looking at are restricted to very recent vintages.
Note the phrasing “gradually raising”. Does that mean over 10 years?
Over 5? Maybe 20. I don’t know. But here is a selling notice from a Realtor sales sheet that is typical of the houses i have been looking at for the past 2 years:
3 bedroom, 1 bath block home. Just minutes from shopping, restaraunts, entertainment and the Gulf. With lots of potential, this one won’t last. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! This property is approved for Home Path Renovation Mortgage.
Fannie and Freddie are still offering 3% down. And note the special “renovation” mortgage. That means 125% LTV loans are still in fashion because if the home needs repair, you can just finance the estimated costs. FANNIE and FREDDIE are the reason we can’t get the housing market back to earth.
I have CASH money, but it is no better than having none when you can borrow with 3% down. That’s my competition for buying.
I have 100k and another person has 3k. No difference. 3k buys 100k.
If the pool of buyers in the low end suddenly needed to have 20k, they game would be completely different. I don’t believe it will happen.
Ambigutity is the new way to concisely control and never be incorrect. The FED set the standard by keeping interest rates “at or near” zero for “an extended period of time”. Obama boasts of jobs “created or saved” by his policies. Accoutablilty is so yesterday. “The Recovery” runs on bullshit.
Ambigutity is the new way to concisely control and never be incorrect.
Perhaps not under certain circumstances.
It used to be - not that long ago
20% down or no mortgage. Period.
Not really. We bought a place in 1989 with 10% down. And before that we had a condo purchased with an FHA loan (which appreciated and provided the down payment for the house when we sold it.
In 1972 we bought our first house with a VA loan. Five percent down.
My parents bought with a VA loan and 5% down a little before that. And the 5% was a gift from my grandparents, not saved money.
That would instantly kill three birds with one stone:
1) Default rates on new mortgages would drop to around zero.
2) Credit ratings on debt issued to fund these new prudent lending standard mortgages could be legitimately rated AAA.
3) F&F would finally achieve their mission of providing affordable housing.
What’s not to like about it?
It also used to be wages and houses were closely matched. Example, in 1970 my father was making $20,000 a year and bought a $20,000 house. Take 20% of that (4,000) and it would be fairly easy to save up after a year or two for the DP.
I made $83,000 last year before taxes - even if I bought the junkiest of junky houses here in DMV (A fairly safe area with average schools) it would cost me around $300,000. So 20% is $60,000.
He has lived and currently lives in that house. His wages have increased over the past decades, while his $20,000 mortgage stayed the same. (No HELOCs or ReFis). He easily paid off his house, saved for retirement and retired at 56. Todays workers do not see the same increase in wages, but saw the housing prices skyrocket. I know this isn’t ‘Breaking News’ to some folks, but to older people it is a reminder how unlucky the younger generation has it.
As much as I’d like to put down as large of a DP as possible, saving the $60,000 is gonna take years. This is just my example (Paid off student loans, no car payments, no fancy electronics or vacations, no shopping sprees - just a simple lifestyle.)
I don’t think young folks have these opportunities any more. First, costs like insurance, taxes, food, fuel, fines and fees etc are magnitudes higher in proportion to income.
Second, there are NO good safe investments anymore that go up by a nice comfy 10% a year, and outside of government jobs, which is about to get a nasty shock where are the wage increases?
I write software and cannot get the wage I was paid 10 years ago as a result of off-shoring in the industry. Many others are impacted as well. Local service jobs are all taken by foreigners too, so not much opportunity there…
Third they have to pay to maintain the burden of the swelling ranks of seniors Medicare and Medicaid payments which are firmly on the logarithmic scale and are effectively going geometric.
I see a lost generation like Japan coming up and a whole lot of discontent!
I write software and cannot get the wage I was paid 10 years ago as a result of off-shoring in the industry.
I haven’t seen that in my field…yet. The raises aren’t as big as they used to be, though. But writing the software is only part of the job, understanding how the system works is most of what you’re getting paid for in storage industry firmware. Guys who understand it way better than me make way more than I do.
He bought a house when he was 16? Cool!
“I write software and cannot get the wage I was paid 10 years ago as a result of off-shoring in the industry.”
Ditto, especially when adjusted for inflation software engineer salaries have tumbled.
“I write software and cannot get the wage I was paid 10 years ago as a result of off-shoring in the industry.”
Ditto, especially when adjusted for inflation software engineer salaries have tumbled.
And here at my studio, I’m getting several calls a week from some Indian offshoring firm that will handle web design.
Well, I’m here to tell you that I’ve tried the offshoring route for some of my subcontracting. Okay for doing the simple stuff, but for anything that’s even a wee bit complicated, fuggedaboutit.
Not only is there a language barrier, there’s also an urgency barrier. They just don’t have the “I want it yesterday!” mentality that we have.
I write software and cannot get the wage I was paid 10 years ago as a result of off-shoring in the industry.
…understanding how the system works is most of what you’re getting paid for in storage industry firmware. Guys who understand it way better than me make way more than I do.
Ditto, especially when adjusted for inflation software engineer salaries have tumbled.
I think the difference here is in the types of “software” we’re talking about.
If we are talking about “Firmware”, which is embedded code at machine-level vs. scripting, then I can understand the discrepancy.
Firmware has to be written pretty much on-site (so it can be tested on the machines it is supposed to ship with) whereas web/database scripting (what I do) can be done from just about anywhere.
Writing firmware, native code and embedded programs (for things like automobile processors, cellphone chips, hard drive storage arrays) is a much more difficult (hence valuable) skill than writing web pages and database queries.
I haven’t seen that in my field…yet
Me neither. I’m sure it depends on what kind of software you do, and what industry you’re in.
10 years ago I was just out of college, so my experience level has increased considerably which is reflected in my wages. But today I’m making almost 3x what I was making in 2000.
I’m sure there are those who were making “phat bank” due to the tech boom, though, who haven’t been able to get those kind of wages since. I didn’t go to a dot com company, so didn’t jump into those absurd salaries right out of the gate. As a result my company didn’t lay everyone off, too
However, there ARE companies that are paying developers well these days, and giving them raises. Google employees here locally got a 10% pay bump a few months ago. Devs at my company got a similar bump here recently as well.
Writing firmware, native code and embedded programs (for things like automobile processors, cellphone chips, hard drive storage arrays) is a much more difficult (hence valuable) skill than writing web pages and database queries.
And, speaking as someone who writes said web pages, I heartily agree with the above!
> I write software and cannot get the wage I was paid 10 years ago as a result of off-shoring in the industry.
So true. In 1998, I made $144k, the equivalent of $188k in 2009 dollars according to http://www.westegg.com/inflation/infl.cgi.
Today, I’m lucky to make $100k, equal to $76k in 2009 dollars. That’s a 50% decline in real purchasing power.
And the really sad thing is that I’m one of the lucky ones. Most people I know are either earning far less or have been out of a job for several years.
I know I produce a hell of a lot more than I earn. The world GDP would be a fraction of it’s value without software developers, but the greedy executives have completely sold off the US and European software industry just like they did the industrial complex. And the result is the largest brain drain in U.S. and European history.
If I had kids, I wouldn’t let them go into software for fear that there will be no jobs for them by the time they enter the job market. It’s pretty sad when you think about it. Software was the one last thing that the United States actually exported, and it was worth far more than Hollywood — the gaming subsector alone out-performed movies and tv combined, and that’s not even the lion’s share of the revenue.
“If we are talking about “Firmware”, which is embedded code at machine-level vs. scripting, then I can understand the discrepancy.”
While India Inc. is best know for its Java coders, HP has been offshoring firmware work to Bangalore for some time now.
But I agree, firmware (real firmware, the stuff that involves real time processing) is harder to write that your run of the mill ASP.NET stuff.
“I write software and cannot get the wage I was paid 10 years ago as a result of off-shoring in the industry.”
10 years ago, the software industry was in a bubble. By its nature, a bubble pulls in lots of folks, and spits some fraction of them back out.
I know lots of people that work in the software industry, and I don’t know of any that are making less than they were 10 years ago. It’s not a random sample, of course, but it is the only data-set that I have.
I’m guessing that the effect you are reporting is localized, company-specific, or specific to a particular sub-segment.
“As much as I’d like to put down as large of a DP as possible, saving the $60,000 is gonna take years.”
This is why I think the Banking Clan will fight tooth and nail for either GSE’s to dump loans on or “gov’t guarantees” that don’t require 20% down.
The banking clan has no need to fight. They will simply summon their K Street bagmen and have them tell Wall Street’s Republicrat marionettes to fall into line. The banksters will get whatever they want, with taxpayers stuck with any liabilities.
Exactly Sean. Something I preach here every day.
Wages have NOT kept up with REAL inflation for the last 30 years.
And it’s not just the younger generation who is affected. Millions of boomers got just as screwed by offshoring.
This has little to do with generations and everything to do with Wall St. and specifically, the FIRE sector.
A convenient but erroneous statement, Ecofeco. The boomers have been selling future generations down the river for decades. “Give us ours now, give the bill to our grandchildren and their children” is their ethos. As as long as the boomers’ needs and wants have been met, they’ve turned a blind eye to rampant fraud by our financial and political elites.
This has EVERYTHING to do with generational abdication of duty and the cumulative greed and heedlessness of the boomers.
I had no idea I was that powerful.
“It also used to be wages and houses were closely matched.”
4. Substantial down payment requirements traditionally helped keep housing prices in line with the incomes needed to repay the loans which financed purchases.
F+F would require mortgage insurance if the mortgage was for more than 80%. Of course in the height of the credit bubble, when everybody thought that mortgages were risk free banks would give you two mortgages, one for 80% and a second for the rest, because that was CHEAPER than insurance. Of course their policy ignored the fact that having the FIRST mortgate for 80% LTV is riskier than having the ONLY for 80%.
Many of us regarded the difference in cost between Mortgage Insurance and a second mortgage as evidence that the mortgage securitization process was mispricing the risk of default. At a fundamental level MBS pooling and Insurance do the same thing: they manage risk by aggregating it. With a single mortgage, you can never completely predict whether it will go bad, but when you have 100, you can be ensure that SOME of them will, and that MOST will not. With Insurance, you have the experts in the mortgage business examining individual mortgages before insuring them. With MBSs you have ignorant bond purchasers buying bonds based strickly on the ratings, and ratings agencies paid by the sellers after glancing at entire pools of mortgages. The idea that the bonds represent a better estimate of the risk of default than insurance is fancifal on the face of it.
PMI, Private Mortgage insurance, for any loans with less than 20% down. Work around with a Piggyback loan 80/15/5, 15 the bank gives you as a second mortgage at closing and you only have to bring 5% to the table. This was common at least in the 90s.
You are correct Banana but it was a very long time ago although VA loans were zero down…
The sole purpose of this set up of seconds was to avoid the
the underwriting of Private Mortgage Insurance . The whole idea
was to avoid underwriting and down payments because the Middle men were just passing this junk to the Secondary market based on false ratings and risk weighing . This was a total violation of reasonable lending practice and proper weighing of risk .
People were willing to go on these low down teaser rate toxic adjustable loans for speculation purpose because it was the cheapest way to get into the speculation game .At some point in the housing boom
this is how loans were sold to people ,based on the cheapest way to get into the property ladder of real estate that can’t lose
and prices always goes up . Refinance when the teaser rate goes up and pull out cash ,or buy another cash cow . This was how real estate and loans were sold . Some people bought because they were convinced they would be priced out forever .
It was a RE Ponzi-scheme ,which usually doesn’t take place with
real estate because you have the check and balance of needing to qualify for the loan ,with a down payment ,along with it being a arms length transaction with a willing and able
borrower . By 2002 the prices had already exceeded affordable
for most places and the market should of came to a standstill
right than and even corrected somewhat ,based on real qualifying .Instead another 5 years of fake lending that pushed the prices to the moon . Those additional five years of over production and mis-allocation of funds to building homes not needed has produced a RE market that is nothing but a foreclosure market with millions in excess inventory .
The job of the financial industry is to allocated money correctly and not produce a fake bubble or a Ponzi-scheme ,especially regarding lending principals ,and certainly not mis-rate risk so you can get your hands on other peoples money . The Middlemen had no right to do what they did and it’s to bad the greedy or scared borrowers bought into the con job .
“The median down payment in nine major U.S. cities rose to 22% last year …”
not sure i believe this.
“2009 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis study concluded buyers who made smaller down payments were more likely to default during “unfavorable economic circumstances, such as a housing market slowdown or job loss.””
lol…they had to do a “study” to determine this?
Real economists don’t trust any bit of economic knowledge unless it has been empirically verified with fancy statistical methods and published in a peer-reviewed journal.
Yet still end up just as wrong.
Academic economists have a hard time grasping obvious practical stuff…
Still pleny of people plowing gains from houses that they bought pre-bubble into the downpayment for a new house.
I’m with you considering FHA requires 3.5% down, it’s BS.
I just heard a radio commercial yesterday that one of the GSEs wants to “help” underwater FBs refi, and therefore 105% refi loans are now available with nothing down in some cases. Not sure what the fine print of “some cases” means.
“some cases”
Could these ‘cases’ be the specially-favored classs of people whom DC deems worthy of their ‘help’ (e.g. wealthy bankers and the indigent)? Too bad that ‘help’ these days may translate into encouragement to purchase a home when prices are dropping like a rock.
“Help”????? Step back and think….. if we MUST help people get into a shack, ideally what is the best means of doing so? If they want to help, buy down the mortgage rate. But lowering the downpayment bar to include spendthrifts is stupid.
“as private banks trying to protect themselves against falling knife collateral risk are completely up to the task of setting prudent down payment requirements all by themselves.”
Only if they are required to hold the loans to maturity, rather than selling them to the gov.
No Money Down? Not Anymore.
2/15/2011 7:30:00 PM
As housing prices drop, mortgage lenders are requiring larger downpayments on homes. Kelsey Hubbard talks to WSJ’s Mitra Kalita about what the changes mean for consumers.
Yesterday I drove by a mortgage lender’s electric highway sign. It advertised “No Appraisals”. I did a double-take and wondered what the gimmick was. They must be using B.P.O. instead or requiring a huge down payment.
I’m surprised appraisals are even a problem…
The house I recently bought needed an appraisal. That “appraisal” came in almost 40% higher than the purchase price. Either that appraiser is a complete nutjob, or the system is a bit rigged - because nobody with half a brain would appraise that house ANYWHERE NEAR that valuation.
Clearly, based upon -actual- sales of homes nearby (not phony asking prices or forclosure reportings that show high valuations), the home is priced around it’s -current- value. I get the feeling based upon the appraisal experiences I’ve had recently that these appraisers are deliberately high-balling.
It advertised “No Appraisals” ??
If you have a large enough down payment sometimes they use a data base with the address & zip code for the appraisal…The only thing the appraiser needs to do is drive by and make sure the physical structure is there…
Google earth.
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The Tax Blog
The latest news, insights and tips about taxes
* February 15, 2011, 10:07 AM
Homebuyer Credit Tax Fraud for Fun and Profit
By Eva Rosenberg
This week, IRS released tax tips about the homebuyers credit, which also happens to be the subject of this week’s TaxWatch column. Just in time, the Justice Department also released their news about the homebuyers credit – a list of indictments issued and lawsuits filed against tax preparers who filed false or fraudulent claims for the homebuyers credits.
Considering the millions of dollars stolen by these people, at a time when the U.S. Treasury is already seriously depleted, it’s a relief to know that criminals are being caught (as detailed in the Tax Blog post about easy money in refundable tax-credit fraud).
Of course, I simply can’t see why these tax professionals engaged in this fraud. There simply isn’t enough profit in it for them to run the risk to their future livelihood.
In a way, I have to envy those preparers who took a short-cut in filing their homebuyers credit claims. Simply by knocking out tax returns and phony documents, you can complete those tax returns in no time at all.
My office filed over 1,000 claims for a national home community developer. We sweated over each and every tax return, meticulously gathering documents from the buyers and the seller, trying to ensure that IRS had enough proof of the purchase and residency. Sometimes, getting proof of prior home ownership, or lack of it, took creativity. Everyone has special or unusual issues.
Friends who were buying homes together are allowed to split the credit any way they choose. So we developed forms to help protect us, the developer and the buyers, in case anyone later changed their mind about the credit split. We dealt with divorce issues, family issues, bankruptcy and even someone who was absent from home– in prison– after buying the house. Each tax return took hours, instead of the hour or so we had anticipated. Reality is complicated.
Then we learned that homes were being bought by people without proper Social Security numbers or with ITINs (individual taxpayer identification numbers). We researched the issue and discovered that they were, indeed, eligible for the homebuyers credit. The IRS Press Office cleared it with IRS counsel, as I wrote in MarketWatch’s TaxWatch to make other homebuyers in a similar situation aware that it was possible for them to claim the credit legally.
The experience of trying to get this all done correctly was so harrowing that we all nearly had nervous breakdowns from the volume and stress. That’s just in our office. Can you imagine IRS’s campuses where they must have processed over a million claims for refund?
…
My office filed over 1,000 claims for a national home community developer. We sweated over each and every tax return, meticulously gathering documents from the buyers and the seller, trying to ensure that IRS had enough proof of the purchase and residency. Sometimes, getting proof of prior home ownership, or lack of it, took creativity. Everyone has special or unusual issues.
I know the author of this article. And I have no doubt that Eva did indeed sweat over each and every tax return. She’s that kind of person.
Theres been some talk around here about vo-tech education. This story interested me. It’s about some guys from Tanzania coming to Meridian, Idaho, for training as master linemen at the Northwest Lineman College.
When I first moved here, I wondered what the heck was going on - there’s a place of several acres that’s just packed with every kind of telephone pole and power tower imaginable. Then I noticed the sign on the building stating it was the Northwest Lineman College. In the old days Ma Bell et al. did all the training in-house but I guess they are too cheap for that nowadays.
Tanzania has one of the lowest electrification rates in the world. An 800-mile transmission-line project will help bring power to 215,000 people in 366 communities. The Symbion/Pike Power Center in Morogoro, Tanzania, is training local workers to build transmission systems, using a curriculum in English and Swahili developed by the Northwest Lineman College near Meridian.
Training the trainers. The college is training three Tanzanians, including Charles Mhalula, right, to teach other linemen back in Morogoro.
http://www.idahostatesman.com/2011/02/16/1529653/from-meridian-to-tanzania-power.html
Darn it, now I’ll be humming that old Glen Campbell tune all day.
Darn it, now I’ll be humming that old Glen Campbell tune all day.
I know Bill, it’s about a union county worker too, probably collecting a pension by now.
1-2-3-4 Ready?
“I am a lineman for the county
And I drive the main roads”
In the old days Ma Bell et al. did all the training in-house but I guess they are too cheap for that nowadays.
A friend of the family worked for Ma Bell back in the day. He went through many of their training programs. And they were first-rate.
My dad started as a lineman for Ma Bell back just before WWII.
Amazingly enough the Army set him to work stringing phone lines across France, just a day or so behind Patton’s 3rd Army.
Today they would have civilian contrators do that. The days of GI Joe peeling potatoes is long gone, except perhaps in the Navy.
EVERYTHING is contracted out.
The military. The government. The nurses. The factory workers. Training. Farming. etc.
You name it. Nobody wants a payroll.
I guess my dad started with Pac Bell as a lineman at that same time, stringing those big powerlines across the desert from Hoover Dam. Then he got more work on the downtown exchanges, and finally ended up some kind of “engineer” desk jockey. What a great retirement he got…*sigh*
Ma Bell still trains people for telephone lines (usually the lowest wire on the pole) or around 18 feet but has never trained peole to deal with electricity, usually at around 24 feet on a standard pole.
I presume that the US is picking up the tuition tab for these guys, although the story didn’t talk about finance.
This is the best kind of “foreign aid” if that’s true.
You are helping a poor developing country develop and maintain an important part of their infrastructure, and make them less dependent on foreigners.
In places like Zimbabwe, the previously robust power grid, especially the landline phone system, has been rendered all but defunct due to thefts of copper cable and wire. US cities are starting to struggle with the same issue. But hey, our stock market is going gangbusters.
I think the HBB needs to throw me a bachelor party in Vegas.
Sorry bink, I’m a renter.
Binky Darling!
Are you getting hitched? (Or are you simply itching?)
In any case, after watching “The Hangover,” I’m not so sure this crowd might be your best bet….
“The Hangover,”
Crazy, funny movie!
I actually got married here in Hawaii a few weeks ago. The wifey has some weird “hangover” induced ideas about what goes on at these things. But after the last HBB meetup in Vegas ended with no arrests I can tell her it’s just our annual soiree.
And anyways, she went out and had a bachelorette party the weekend before the wedding, so she can’t complain.
And anyways, she went out and had a bachelorette party the weekend before the wedding, so she can’t complain.
So… you would not be bringing her here to an HBB shindig if it were your “substitute” bachelor party - right?
I mean, you want to stay married for a while, right?
Anyway - CONGRATULATIONS!!!
So, what really happened in Hawaii?
(Hwy’s headin’ for an unseen camp site in Death Valley tomorrow,…there’s only one place that offers Wi-Fi, if it’s this weekend, might be possible to say congratulations!)
I am coming in March Bink…Is that to late ??
Definitely not. Now we just have to get Ben to come along.
Promise the boy a gratis supply of Flaming double decker bamboo Tiki Drinks (with monkey umbrella garnishes and the requisite fruit skewers.) A hint of Dick Dale and the Deltones waftin’ from on the bandstand might set the stage righteously, too.
Think out of the sandbox….
Late mortgage payments fall in 4th qtr, but housing price drop may stall further improvement.
NEW YORK (AP) — More homeowners across the country made their mortgage payments on time in the fourth quarter, but with housing prices falling again, prospects for significant improvement in 2011 have faded.
Credit reporting agency TransUnion found that 6.41 percent of homeowners were behind on their mortgages by 60 days or more during the last three months of 2010. It marked the fourth-straight period the rate fell, and was down from 6.89 percent in 2009’s fourth quarter, when delinquencies peaked.
But while TransUnion analysts until recently expected the figure to continue to drop this year, they are now predicting a flat rate through 2011, mainly because of recent housing price declines.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index found home prices dropped in November across most of America’s largest cities, and average prices in eight major markets hit their lowest point since the housing bust.
There’s a strong correlation between delinquency rates and falling housing prices, said Tim Martin, who follows the U.S. housing market for TransUnion’s financial services unit. He said while the delinquency rate declined through each quarter of 2010, the drop was smaller each period, as the housing market sputtered.
What’s more, in the fourth quarter, even though the overall mortgage delinquency rate for the country fell, there were increases from the third quarter in 33 states.
“…but with housing prices falling again, prospects for significant improvement in 2011 have faded.”
I suppose if everyone walked away and sent jingle mail to their lenders, the delinquency rate would technically drop to zero, right?
Shhhhhhhh!
There’s a strong correlation between delinquency rates and falling housing prices
WHY? Presumably if you keep your job and don’t get sick or divorced, you should be making the same payment every month, and it shouldn’t matter what your home is “worth,” right?
RIGHT?
“don’t get sick”
Depression is a real illness.
I suppose depression could be due to a chemical imbalance in some. But I take the impression a large number of people habitually make themselves depressed through recurring patterns of thought which flood their brain with chemicals that bring on the depressed feelings. The cure is to figure out how to break the pattern by no longer dwelling on the depressing subjects (easier said than done, I know!).
I suppose depression could be due to a chemical imbalance in some. But I take the impression a large number of people habitually make themselves depressed through recurring patterns of thought which flood their brain with chemicals that bring on the depressed feelings. The cure is to figure out how to break the pattern by no longer dwelling on the depressing subjects (easier said than done, I know!).
In my own case, the problem was a combination of lousy eating habits and recurring thought patterns brought about by not being able to find a decent job in early 1980s Pittsburgh. Recall back then that the local unemployment rate was around 20%.
However, things were not entirely hopeless. I found, amongst my family, friends, and, yes, some caring professionals, much support of fixing those eating habits and the negative thought train that was rolling ’round and ’round in my head.
Then there was the job sitch. Perhaps the best career move I ever made was to get into a fight with a customer at the food co-op where I was working as a cashier. And she and I had words while I was running the register. Yikes!
I was so worried about what would happen to me and my co-op job that I hoofed it over to the University of Pittsburgh on my day off, spied an interesting job on a “help wanted” bulletin board, applied for it and got it.
The co-op boss never mentioned a word to me about the fight at the register, but he wasn’t sorry to see me go.
Truth be told, he didn’t care for any of the staff. We weren’t exactly the employees he had in mind to carry out his plan to turn the food co-op into an upscale store. In the ghetto, no less.
Well, off to Pitt I went. And it turned out that my boss had taken management lessons from Attila the Hun.
As near as I can figure out, her turning against me happened when we were supposed to meet up outside her office to head over to another campus building for a meeting. What I didn’t know was that she had the clock outside of her office set to tavern time — 10 minutes fast.
So, there I was, monitoring the time in my office, which was set to the actual time. Shortly before 10 a.m., I roll out of my office, lock the door, and head over to the boss’ office. Where she was fuming because I was *late*.
Things went progressively downhill, but ya know what? In all my struggles to find a better job, I learned something. And that was that the working conditions weren’t all there was to a job.
Yes, the boss was a real witch that started with the letter B, but the salary the job paid was higher than any I’d had before. The worse things became at the office, the madder I got.
In fact, I’d get so mad that I’d stomp over to the Pitt employee credit union and have them raise my savings deduction from each pay period. Call it my escape fund, because that’s exactly what I did.
During one of Attila the Boss’s many tirades hurled at me, she told me to start looking for another job. I told her that I would start looking for another city.
You could have knocked her over with a feather, she was that shocked. She insisted that I didn’t have to do anything that drastic. But I did. And I had my escape fund all buffed up and ready to take me places.
On Friday, February 13, 1987, I handed my Pitt resignation letter to that hateful boss. She cheerfully took it.
Then I proceeded to have the best six weeks that I ever had in Pittsburgh. ‘Cause I was leaving. Getting back on my bike and hitting the road.
Of course, my parents were horrified that I would have the nerve to do such a thing, but oh well. I realized that I couldn’t run my life like an opinion poll. And what could they do anyway? I was getting close to 30 years old, and Pittsburgh just wasn’t working. I was going to find a place that would.
On Saturday, March 28, 1987, my bike and I boarded a one-way flight to Phoenix, Arizona. From there, I pedaled down to the Mexican border city of Nogales, said “Hola!” then turned north and headed up to Canada.
I biked and VIA Railed in Canada, making it as far west as Vancouver. Then I headed back to the States, got on a one-way flight to Tucson from Portland, and I’ve been here ever since.
This is not to say that things have been easy since. They haven’t been. Right now, I’m dealing with the declining health of several family members, but you know what? You can’t dwell on that stuff 24/7. You need to take a break from it and be part of society.
I agree. Those thought patterns may be induced in the FB by the realization that they are throwing money into a black hole when the house is worth less than the mortgage, and the gap is widening month by month.
“I take the impression a large number of people habitually make themselves depressed through recurring patterns of thought which flood their brain with chemicals that bring on the depressed feelings. The cure is to figure out how to break the pattern”
I hear you. Close down HBB for good!
My depression got better, once I got past that “pride” and “self-respect” thing, and the fact that the PTB place zero value on what I do for a living……
How much is one supposed to worry? Certainly some people spend much of theri lives in an elevated sense of near panic. They worry about EVERYTHING, all the time. OTOH, it is evident than many FB’s didn’t worry nearly enough before the signed those papers.
Prof. Bear, what you describe is called Cognitive Behavioral Therapy. It involves recognizing some ten different patterns of negative thought and learning to talk back to such thoughts until the mind has become trained to overcome them.
Prof. Bear, what you describe is called Cognitive Behavioral Therapy. It involves recognizing some ten different patterns of negative thought and learning to talk back to such thoughts until the mind has become trained to overcome them.
That’s what I had back in Pittsburgh. Worked very well.
One of the things that I learned on my own, and via various support groups, is to tell those patterns of thought to eff off. Sometimes, I even cuss them out. Man, that feels good!
“In my own case, the problem was a combination of lousy eating habits and recurring thought patterns brought about by not being able to find a decent job in early 1980s Pittsburgh.”
Who knows — maybe we were eating poorly back then due to the lack of decent jobs. I was depressed circa 1980 as well. Eventually I beat it by reading this book (on Cognitive Behavioral Therapy) and following its advice:
Feeling Good - The New Mood Therapy
Dr. Burns describes how to combat feelings of depression so you can develop greater self-esteem. This best-selling book has sold over 4 million copies worldwide to date. In a recent national survey of mental health professionals, Feeling Good was rated #1–out of a list of 1000 books–as the most frequently recommended self-help book on depression in the United States.
I also found it useful to let go of my father’s religion, which used to make me feel personally responsible for every problem on the planet. It’s much better to have a clear view of where your power lies, and where it ends, and judge yourself accordingly.
“My depression got better, once I got past that “pride” and “self-respect” thing, and the fact that the PTB place zero value on what I do for a living……”
Sounds like my life… I hear yah.
My depression also lifted with the geographic cure.
It kicked my rear end big time, daily, when I was trapped in CT. Unexpectedly, it got a lot better the week after I got down here (”where the jobs are” - tm Oxide). It went away completely once I got some cash flow, and had the contentment of locking my door at night and the peace to pursue my enjoyments. Which route to explore on the dog walks. Which book. What music. My very own channel changer.
There’s something about us humans that chafes against being trapped. I agree that entrapment can take many forms. A most insidious form is carrying around the 100 lb weight of your cast character, as defined by the PTB. Or the PTA. Or whoever is shoving you into their sardine can and labeling it “the acceptable you”.
To which I say, “Eff ‘em”.
I realize that I am lucky as all get out, actually being able to take the geographic cure. Targeting a destination “on the numbers”. Actually finding and getting a job that was only there in theory, based on the numbers.
For many of us in the trapped and eviscerated middle class, that sequence of actions is nearly impossible. Getting even more difficult, as the wealth created by our labor is skimmed off the top and routed into bailouts and bonuses for those who claim to be our betters.
My landlord said the owners are happy with us as tenants and we’re “safe.” I have no idea what that means, but she did not directly reply to suggestion that $100 sq. ft. would be fair given the comps. Which, until last month, were spiraling down.
I drove by the place that closed at $160ish a sq. ft. and the 3rd bedroom is, drumroll…. the garage. Lord help me! Freaking Clownifornians. I guess if you’re from an $850,000 2 br. in Compton, anything under $300k by the beach is a steal.
Here’s a great article on bankruptcy fakers:
http://www.tampabay.com/news/article1151779.ece
“My landlord said………we’re “safe.”
Keep an eye open for a new rental.
“My landlord said the owners are happy with us as tenants and we’re safe.”
Depends on how you define safe… for the LL it probably means you pay on time, the checks don’t bounce and you don’t complain about trivialities.
Can you check the public records on the property to see if anything suspicious is going on with LL?
But
“Is it safe?……..”
Signed,
Dustin Hoffman’s teeth
Stevenson remembers one couple who lived in a waterfront home on Treasure Island. But because they planned to give up the house, she didn’t press them too hard about the value of their personal property.
“The next day in the St. Pete Times, there they were in the food section because they had a personal chef. You could see the granite countertops. I said, ‘Okay, let’s send out an appraiser and re-evaluate everything.’ ”
Bahahahahahahaha!!!
Those granite countertops will get you EVERY time!
In 2006, authorities say, Richard Likane of Tampa got a mortgage after telling the lender he was making $12,324 a month as manager of an Italian restaurant.
But tax returns submitted in his 2008 bankruptcy case correctly stated that the only income he had in 2006 was $44.
After the FBI investigated those and other discrepancies between mortgage applications and Likane’s bankruptcy filing, he was indicted last year on a charge of mail fraud affecting a financial institution — and faces up to 30 years in prison………………….
I’ll bet he gets 60 days, if any, and a year’s probation with a mortgage counsellor.
And meanwhile, not a single Wall Street executive has gone to jail for the massive swindles they perpetrated on retail investors and US taxpayers.
Good article. Thanks for posting, Muggy. For grins, I went to the web site mentioned in the article, and there is a disturbing number of timeshares for sale.
There’s always a disturbing number of timeshares for sale, just like there’s always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet.
You forgot Vogon constructor fleets.
Don’t panic.
Need to get this article to Casey quickly.
Rising Employment No Inflation Rebound as Wages Affirm Bernanke
(Bloomberg)
Amy Valle is caught in a labor- market recovery that’s forcing some Americans to settle for less. Before she lost her job as a full-time health-department case worker last November, she was making $23 an hour. Now she’s paid $10 an hour as a part-time assistant coordinator in an after-school program.
“From here on out, it will be a struggle,” said Valle, 32, whose husband lost his $50,000 government job and still is out of work after a year. “I don’t feel like there’s any place we can go to get what we were getting paid.”
The improvement in the unemployment rate to 9 percent in January from a two-decade peak of 10.1 percent in October 2009 masks a new reality: Many of the jobs people are taking as the economy rebounds offer lower pay, fewer hours and worse benefits than some of the 8.75 million positions that disappeared because of the recession, according to Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in Toronto.
This may restrain income growth, limiting bigger gains in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the U.S. economy. It also underscores Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s contention that wages, which increased 1.7 percent on an average hourly basis last year, have acted as a constraint on inflation, allowing the central bank to keep interest rates at record lows to sustain growth.
she was making $23 an hour. Now she’s paid $10 an hour as a part-time……
This is our new American story.
And this is the reason why for 30 years we’ve cut the taxes on corporations and the rich.
See?
Another “consumer” who won’t be doing a whole lot of consuming.
Maybe she could join a union?? Watched “Hoffa” last night. Seemed to me as if they dowplayed the negative repercussions of “corruption for power” on the masses. Sheeple are smart.
First, she’ll have to find one.
Only 12% of the workforce is union.
Only 12% of the workforce is union.
And only 6.9% of private sector workers are union. source BLS
Yea, 6.9% of our private sector workers make us “uncompetitive”.
Tell you what US Chamber of Commerce,
Give us a shack, a daily bowl of rice a daily kick in the face and maybe USA can be more “competitive” while you greedy SOB’s grow richer than kings.
You mean the same US Chamber of Commerce that is paying to train overseas, foreign workers at companies that are taking our jobs?
Why yes! You CAN Google that!
And this is the reason why for 30 years we’ve cut the taxes on corporations and the rich.
???
America has the HIGHEST corporate tax rates of any industrialized country…
America has the HIGHEST corporate tax rates of any industrialized country…
Your points rarely show any evidence of curiosity to dig deeper than am radio talking points. Why? Is everything 100% or 0%?
Look. America has a high statitory tax rate. We do! BUT……But …..(are you ready?)……AFTER all the loopholes, deductions, offshoring of tax jurisdictions the USA has one of the lowest rates of actual corporate taxes paid. That means that corporations do not even come close to paying the rates that you think and AM radio says they pay.
Don’t you ever get any of these memos?
Actually - I tend to do my own research. You seem to like to spout off “facts” and then when caught spout off in a different direction hoping no one notices.
An article from 2008. And since then Japan has cut their corporate tax rate.
Only Japan has a higher marginal corporate tax rate among developed nations, the Treasury Department said last year. When state taxes are factored in, U.S. corporations pay about 39 percent on their last dollar of profit.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ag7lSuB.yyII
“Don’t you ever get any of these memos?:
Banana believes what he wants to believe. And he believes that all those poor corporations, which are making record profits, need even more breaks.
U.S. corporations pay about 39 percent on their last dollar of profit.
2Bannana, I ran a corporation but I certainly don’t run from your talking points. Now let’s everyone look at your above sentence 2banana. About taxes on PROFIT and “last dollar of profit”.
Now think about what I said. The part about USA having high marginal tax rates but so many loopholes that the high marginal tax rates don’t mean squat.
Now when I ran my corporation in the USA don’t you think I took advantage of every loophole and deduction and strategy I had?
After I did this, that and the other thing, then “invested” in some loophole OR paid myself or my partner or 401K or IRA or whatever a bunch of dividends and money, do you think I would show a lot of PROFIT?? On my “last dollar of profit.”
No 2banna, that’s not how it works in the real world. You don’t want to show profits and there are tons of ways not to.
And the big corporations are have even better methods to avoid taxes.
From: Smartmoney dot com (facts are hard)
You may have heard: U.S. corporations face one of the highest income tax rates in the world, though the mention of “rate” is often enough excised, so that what comes through is the assertion that corporations pay too much in taxes. This is simply untrue if your basis for comparison is the developed world. The truth is that while the 35% corporate income tax rate is high indeed, the creativity and global reach of U.S. corporations make them among the most lightly levied.
Between 2000 and 2005, U.S. corporate taxes amounted to 2.2% of the GDP. The average for the 30 mostly rich member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development was 3.4%.
Then here’s some more research for you:
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1249465620080812
What’s often left out of the discussion when corporate tax rates is that we have many loopholes and exemptions that other countries don’t have. The result is that the amount of tax actually collected is actually less than many countries that we typically compare ourselves to.
Here’s one link that shows how the effective tax rate varies by industry:
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/01/28/us/politics/28tax-graphic.html
“Why? Is everything 100% or 0%?”
Because NickBananaRepublic is one of those “functional retards” FPSS spoke so eloquently of.
Give it up Rio. This is the country that voted more power to the very people that were sending their jobs offshore.
It’s only going to get worse.
+1. Whenever some Republicrat sheep starts bleating about off-sourcing and predatory capitalism, I remind them that this is what they voted for. Ditto for the hope ‘n change dupes when they saw Obama’s economic team, a.k.a. Goldman Sachs inside job crew, and wailed that they’d been had.
It also underscores Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s contention that wages, which increased 1.7 percent on an average hourly basis last year, have acted as a constraint on inflation,”
But if 3rd world is making more money either by wage increases or a falling dollar what does that do for inflation ?
Ben Bernake never talks about global inflation.
He doesn’t talk about global inflation because his responsibility only involves domestic inflation.
Bernanke has two tasks: facilitate Wall Street looting of the productive economy, and inflate away government debts and obligations. Once you understand that, all of his actions make perfect sense.
A clip on the local news last night about how Home Depot is hiring, with 900 jobs slated for the Tampa Bay area.
It’s morning in America!
It`s a spring thing.
Plant pushers, sod slingers (green side up) and mulch movers.
The world’s largest home-improvement chain is adding 60,000 full- and part-time seasonal workers to its roughly 2,250 stores in time for its second annual Spring Black Friday sale.
“Spring is our Christmas,” said Home Depot spokesman Craig Fischel. “This is when we get the most traffic.”
Not sure about this spring rush there talking about.I know I wont be buying anything significant there.There prices are getting high.
check out a company called HD supply much better for CA shoppers.
is adding 60,000 full- and part-time seasonal workers
When I was a kid, all I ever wanted to be was a full-time seasonal worker.
Do you need to be bilingual?
Apparently so. Lowe’s has a “Now Hiring” banner outside its store and it’s in Spanish as well as English.
I’ve worked retail here in Tucson. And let me tell you, having the ability to speak Spanish is a real plus.
Why? Because of Mexican shoppers coming up here for major sprees. Oh, do they ever spend money.
If you can speak to them courteously and respectfully in Spanish, they’ll really open the wallets. And refer their friends and relatives to your store.
I know about 1 word of spanish, pino= tree.
I know about 1 word of spanish, pino= tree.
It’s arbol. And I wish that I could put the accent over the “a” so I could spell the word correctly.
I can order lunch at most Mexican resteraunts.
A “pino” is a pine tree.
Growing up in CA, I must know a thousand words in Spanish. It’s just that I lack the grammar to connecte them into sentences. Most CA place names are Spanish.
El Camino Real - the King’s highway
Sausalito - grove of willows
Los Altos - the heights
Monte Sereno - serene mountain
Palo Alto - high tree
Los Gatos - the cats
Salinas - salt marsh
Berkeley - insane asylum
“Why? Because of Mexican shoppers coming up here for major sprees. Oh, do they ever spend money.”
Cartel employees?
Cartel employees?
Nope. Just plain old middle and upper class Mexicans. And, BTW, although it doesn’t get much play in this country, Mexico has a rapidly growing middle class.
Growing up in CA, I must know a thousand words in Spanish.
Cali is the land of Spanish nouns but it’s the verbs that are tricky.
I forgot my favorite:
Alameda De Las Pulgas - avenue of the fleas
“Nope. Just plain old middle and upper class Mexicans. And, BTW, although it doesn’t get much play in this country, Mexico has a rapidly growing middle class.”
Forgive me. I’ve been reading too many non-fiction books about Juarez serial killers and border town drug wars. I definitley do not see enough good news coming out of Mexico but, then, I haven’t really been looking for it either. I should start.
Berkeley - insane asylum ??
LOL……
“Alameda De Las Pulgas - avenue of the fleas”
That would be “Avenida”. An alameda is a tree lined promenade or park.
Tidbit for the day: Any word in Spanish that starts with “al” is Arabic in origin. A leftover from the time when the Moors ruled Spain.
“Do you need to be bilingual?”
This is going to be a body slam for a lot of low income and displaced Americans fighting for the few menial jobs that are out there. They will find themselves passed over for illegals because they don’t speak Spanish.
I know Home Depot has some pretty stringent hiring policies and I don’t think illegals would get jobs there, although English/Spanish bilingual folks would be hired, provided everything else checks out. They background check and drug test their employees, including some prescription meds.
Illegals do shop at Lowe’s and HD, though, with a vengeance. Do-it-yourselfers. One guy I know who works at Lowe’s says he cringes when he sees some of the Spanish only speakers trying to fit pipes together for gas lines. He tries to help them out and advise them, doesn’t want to see household explosions.
Do-it-yourselfers? Or wannbe heating and a/c contractors?
IMO, maybe a few household explosions are what we need.
They hired me when I was in High School. Can’t be that stringent.
//left after 3 months, hated it.
Does this mean they already did the souper bowl?
From yesteray:
palmetto -
Really, please, I want to know what a “hispanic” looks like.
Black hair, brown eyes, dark skin - like me.
Plenty of people look like that, doesn’t mean they’re “hispanic”.
Are Americans invited to these jobs or is it “illegals only?”
The Wall Street Journal
Question of the Day
What size down payment should be required for a mortgage?
The Obama administration called for gradually raising down payments to a minimum of 10% on conventional loans, meaning those that can be bought or guaranteed by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And mortgage data show that private lenders are already pushing sharply higher the required down payments, mainly to mitigate their risk as home prices continue to fall.
Where do you think down payments should fall? Should the equity be more substantial to prevent default? Or should entry barriers to homeownership be lower to help the housing market recover?
The minimum down payment should be based on the maximum risk the PRIVATE lender is willing to take.
What size down payment should be required for a mortgage?
100%. You’re welcome.
(But I would also endorse Bad Andy’s answer above.)
Ask a Japanese home owner over the past two decades whether this kind of double dip is unprecedented for housing, and you may get a different opinion than that offered by Mr Stiff.
Housing Crash Hits Wealthier Cities
Bad news for home sellers in Seattle: states previously thought to have dodged the fallout of the housing crisis are now beginning to feel its impact. While low-quality loans exploded most dramatically in Florida and Sunbelt states, the New York Times reports that richer regions are now getting hit, with Seattle being a case study: its housing market has fallen more than 30 percent from 2007 levels. Similarly, “Minneapolis dropped more than Miami, and Atlanta fared worse than Phoenix” last year. Despite federal efforts to prop up the market, with sellers unable to offload expensive real estate, many are simply giving up, and economists predict that prices will continue to drop. “We’re at a period near the bottom but with more volatility than we normally see at this point,” said David Stiff, chief economist for home price index company Fiserv. “This sort of double dip is unprecedented for housing.”
I think Japanese real estate is still on the *first* dip.
I still remember shaking my head when I read the news story that claimed the the Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo was worth more than all of California.
The reporter better save this article for next year. He can just change ‘Seattle” to “D.C.” and save time, because DC’s is about to go down. I know smug Bethesdans living in their $1.2MM tudor don’t want to hear it, but its about to happen.
Any information to back up your timing prediction? I know that we must have a ways to go in this area, I just don’t see any way to predict when it is going to hit. Unless you think the federal contractors are going to take a big hit soon?
Sean, I’d bet against you on that one. Employment in the D.C. area remains strong, wages are above the national average, and layoffs are few and far between. When I hear an announcement that the IRS is about to lay off 1,000 employees, instead of the announcement that the IRS is going to be hiring 1,000 new employees, I might change my mind.
Indeed, as long as the deficit spending continues and the Feds continue to hire $100K+ per year employees, the DC bubble might have some legs.
“Any information to back up your timing prediction?”
Not any quantified information. Its just a bet I’m willing to take. My thinking (In random order):
-This area is wealthy… extremely wealthy, thanks to the Federal Government. Like a Realtor told me once “The Government ain’t going anywhere”. But the wealth is all based off of debts and deficits. It would be one thing if things were going better, but they are not. We dont produce or make anything here. Its just shuffling money back and forth and adding it to the IOUs. (Sorry, don’t know what IOU is in Chinese)
-The jobs. Yes, there are a lot of folks here that have moved to the DMV area for employment, like myself and my wife. We rent, as do other nomads. Thats what the younger generation is, a bunch of nomads who are able to pick up and leave for a few years. We gain experience in our fields, enjoy walking around the Mall and complaining about the tourists on the Metro, but once opportunities open up back in our home states/areas, we are gone. The days of “graduating high school, going down to the local factory and working for 30 years” are over. My wife and I are here for one thing: Experience to put on her resume. Once something opens up in upstate NY, Ohio, Carolina, Chicago or maybe a handful of other places we are gone - and talking to a few other “nomads” around the local bars/playgrounds they are doing the same.
-Speaking of jobs - all of those listings you see on usajobs dot com arent all real. Some just collect resumes, some use it to see what kind of folks they can hire, some use it as a gauge to see how many talented folks are out there. A friend of mine applied to the FAA - did so about three years ago. He has been emailing the HR lady about his application. She said once a job becomes available they’ll contact him. After telling her about the specific job title and number, she said “Don’t look at that. We’ve had that posting up for years and haven’t filled the position yet.”
-The attitudes of homeowners here. Its just like watching those shows on HGTV. Buy a place, paint the closet, sell it next month for $60,000 more. The “we’re safe” attitude is prevalent here, as people just think there is no way to lose money at real estate and its ALWAYS GONNA GO UP. Hmm, where have I seen that attitude before.
-The jumbo loan stuff, which is about to get revamped. 729K is a lot different here than 729K in Kansas, Dallas or Atlanta. If the protection goes away for jumbo loans, read the fine print to see if DC homes or high cost of living areas are included .
-The Republicans/Tea Party. Lets be honest and say inside the Beltway isnt the most desired place to be nowadays. The National resentment towards the Government, federal workers, entitlement spending is pretty easy to see.
And if the GOP or the TP have their way, they will decimate Washington. This is one of their not so secret plans as told to me by a rabid GOPer, and I actually do think they have a good point. Obviously Washington was designed many years ago before the age of jet travel and the internet. Instead of having all agencies headquartered inside the Beltway, spread it on out. Put the DHS in Kansas City, HHS in Billings, DOT in Austin…..No need for all the agencies to be blocks from each other. Workers would move the prospective area and work, while buying a house there, paying taxes there, being a part of a community there. How much would it help, lets say, Detroit if the Government decided to put the entire IRS department there. Thousands would move out of DC and into Detroit. Homes would go up there, down in DC.
Anyways, just my little rant. I’ll be sure to look at this in about two years to see if I’m right.
Was out of town for bit and returned yesterday to the news that the Census is showing a 6.9% decline in the population of the city of Chicago for the past decade. Whoa! So we’re looking at not only a building inventory/shadow inventory, but also a smaller population with which to absorb it. The headlines here say it’s the smallest city population since 1910. The decline far exceeds all previous estimates for the city since 2000.
Here is a related story as regards the problem of absorbing shadow inventory on the national level. With the wave of retiring baby boomers sucking up an increasing share of the national wealth for the next couple of decades, I have a hard time envisioning a reversal of this trend over the near term future.
U.S. Birth Rate Hits All-Time Low
Teen birth rate also falls to record low
By Robert Longley, About.com Guide
Continuing a 12-year decline, the U.S. birth rate has dropped to the lowest level since national data have been available, according to statistics just released by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). The rate of births among teenagers also fell to a new record low, continuing a decline that began in 1991.
The birth rate fell to 13.9 per 1,000 persons in 2002, down from 14.1 per 1,000 in 2001 and down a full 17 percent from the recent peak in 1990 (16.7 per 1,000), according to a new CDC report, “Births: Preliminary Data for 2002.” CDC analysts say the birth rate is dropping as the increasing life span of Americans results in a smaller proportion of women of child childbearing age.
…
But Chicago has all the community organizing going on…
Funny how no one actually wants to LIVE under socialism.
Funny how no one actually wants to LIVE under socialism.
Except in Canada where 86% prefer their socialized health insurance vs the American BS system. source: wiki
And Germany, France, Holland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway etc. where they prefer their form of capitalism way more than America’s crony-capitalist and criminal form of corrupt winner take all disaster capitalism.
There form of capitalism is also better for their people and very productive. There are more Global Fortune 500 companies in the EU than there are in America. Socialist Germany alone exports way more than does the USA.
Facts are hard.
There form
They’re form…. kidding
Their form
“Facts are hard.”
Not to mention that all those “socialist” countries are far safer to live in as well and have far fewer people incarcerated per capita than we do.
Wrong. It’s not “per capita” is far fewer, period.
The “per capita” is thrown out there in media and social zeitgeist to deliberately confuse and downplay the fact that we are a defacto police state because we have the MOST prisoners by numbers alone.
This doesn’t even include the 7 million on probation and parole.
Okay, I don’t even know what I was trying to say in that first sentence except, it’s not per capita. It’s sheer, raw numbers alone. And we have the highest.
And they all seem to be all white and with a Christian heritage with massive mineral and oil reserves. And they all seem to have kept quite a bit of capitalism. (Hint - Sweden has school choice for any school and it is easier to start a business in Germany than America)
Now why don’t we look at a place that have instituted socialism with the way Karl thought about it with a larger population than that of Disney Land on a sunny day.
Like former China? Sudan? Zimbabwe? Former USSR? Former Vietnam? Venezuela? Cuba? Etc.
Police states tend to safer.
Because nobody is talking about pure Karl Marx socialism except the wingnut Chicken Littles.
And also because none of your examples implemented pure Karl Marx socialism either.
Nobody can, and this is generally understood.
And they all seem to be all white and with a Christian heritage with massive mineral and oil reserves. And they all seem to have kept quite a bit of capitalism. (Hint - Sweden has school choice for any school and it is easier to start a business in Germany than America)
On being White: Today, education, progressive taxes, honest government, higher wages, market protectionism, unions and investment in a country’s people is the key not color. Japan is not “white”.
Christian: Nothing wrong with that at all but the Northern European countries are not that devout therefore my above points trump religion.
Oil reserves? Nice but not a deciding factor in development of capitalism. See the Mid-East Also USA possesses vast natural resources other than oil as well.
Sweden having capitalism: Yes! Very good. Parts of the EU do democratic-socialism AND capitalism better than the USA.
You make some good points but where you get hung up is in labels and all or nothing thinking.
For example:
When someone touts the benefits and superiority of the Canadian health-care system or the superior Germany model of unionized manufacturing you tend to get all bent and think we are talking about USSR or something.
Well, we’re not.
Now why don’t we look at a place that have instituted socialism with the way Karl thought about it with a larger population than that of Disney Land on a sunny day.
Like former China? Sudan? Zimbabwe? Former USSR? Former Vietnam? Venezuela? Cuba? Etc.
You’re learning, Mister Banana. Sweden, Germany, etc. are not socialist countries. Neither is Chicago, so your original post can be ignored.
Also, if you were referring to Karl Marx, you need to keep in mind that he didn’t actually prescribe in any detail what sort of econmomy he would prefer.
“The “per capita” is thrown out there in media and social zeitgeist to deliberately confuse and downplay the fact that we are a defacto police state because we have the MOST prisoners by numbers alone.”
Sorry if I wasn’t clear. I was saying that we have more people locked up in absolute and relative numbers than any other nation in the world.
Are you on something, or do you have some form of political Tourrettes?
Edge–did you see the numbers by race? 200,000 African-Americans have fled the city since that time. Whites were down 50K and the hispanic population increased a bit. being a demography dork I wonder about those numbers–is the AA population finally getting wise and moving out of the cr@ppy schools/crime infested neighborhoods? Going to warmer climes as the blue collar jobs shrink here?
So far there appears to be no obvious commensurate increases in the south suburbs to fully explain where exactly those African Americans might have wound up. One theory showing up today is that with the demolition of public housing in the city, many might have just slipped through the cracks during this census.
Just a hunch, but if someone is hard to find during a census then it’s probably not a stretch to conclude that house buying is probably not a high priority for them. Meanwhile much Federal funding hangs in the balance. No matter how ya slice it, this is not good local news.
Yeah, I saw that also eJohn….Smallest since 1910…That has got to create some unsolvable problems….
Yeah, so far the local pols are silent - too busy gearing up for next Tuesday. One would hope they appreciate the gravity of this news.
Having read “the jungle” by Upton Sinclaire, there is no way the had very accurate account of who was living in Chicago in 1910.
Real Estate
NYT: For Crashing House Prices, Seattle Is the New Las Vegas
By Curtis Cartier, Mon., Feb. 14 2011 @ 3:23PM
Remember when folks in Seattle got to sit back and laugh at cities like Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Fort Lauderdale and their exploding housing bubbles? Well, maybe it wasn’t so much of a laugh as a sigh of relief that it wasn’t equally bad in our neck of the woods. Whatever it was, it’s been over for some time. And The New York Times reports that those other cities may get to do the laughing soon.
From Sunday’s report:
Seattle home prices have fallen 31 percent from their peak in 2007.
…
And still dropping! Check out seattlebubble.com for the stats.
Truly heartwarming news. All those folks in NW Washington State who called me a kook a few years back are eating crow. My only regret is that I moved to MD so I don’t have a front row seat for it.
Foreclosure Sales Rise Dramatically in Key States
Published: Tuesday, 15 Feb 2011 | 2:33 PM ET
Diana Olick
CNBC Real Estate Reporter
Last week a foreclosure report from RealtyTrac showed the process was still completely skewed by the so-called “robo-signing” (faulty paperwork) issues at some of the nation’s largest mortgage servicers that were uncovered last fall. Another report today from ForeclosureRadar.com, which only tracks a few states out West, shows some important micro-moves that will have a big impact on the Spring housing market.
ForeclosureRadar.com shows that foreclosure sales, that is, either bank repossessions or sales to third parties (usually at the courthouse steps and often investors) jumped dramatically in January from the previous month in some crucial states.
In California, bank repossessions jumped 51.5 percent, in Arizona 56.2 percent, in Nevada up 36.8 percent.
“We have not seen this level of activity on the courthouse steps for months,” says Sean O’Toole, CEO and Founder of ForeclosureRadar.com. “The increase in foreclosures is just in time to provide a fresh supply of entry level homes for the spring home buying season.”
…
http://detnews.com/article/20110216/BIZ/102160332
Even after foreclosure, debt collectors still pursue borrowers for repayment
A grim echo of the housing bust is building for Michigan homeowners who’ve lost their homes to foreclosure or sold them in short sales. Without even knowing it, they could end up owing tens of thousands of dollars in mounting debts under a previously unenforced provision of the state’s foreclosure law.
Until a few years ago, when someone lost a home to foreclosure in Michigan, the owner walked awayembarrassed and financially battered, but owing nothing more onthe property.
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Now, because of dropping property values, mortgage lenders are engineering foreclosures so they can pursue a borrower for the unpaid balance of a home loan for years to come. With added fees and interest, this phantom debt — called a “mortgage deficiency” — could swell to become more than the homeowner paid for the property.
Now, because of dropping property values, mortgage lenders are engineering foreclosures so they can pursue a borrower for the unpaid balance of a home loan for years to come. With added fees and interest, this phantom debt — called a “mortgage deficiency” — could swell to become more than the homeowner paid for the property
And I’ll bet you that more than a few of those former homeowners will tell their former lenders to stick it where the sun don’t shine.
will tell their former lenders to stick it where the sun don’t shine ??
And the bank will then turn to the Bounty Hunter collection agencies who will harass you for the remainder of your life thats assuming that the state tax board or the IRS do not do you in first…
Welcome to the world of the recourse states. In recourse states, the borrower is likely to declare bankruptcy simultaneously with the foreclosure in order to eliminate the deficiency judgement.
It becomes even harder to prove that the debt is owed as time goes on and it gets sold from debt collector to debt collector. It’s extremely important that you don’t ignore notices and if you’re served for court to hire a lawyer…or at the very least show up to defend yourself.
this phantom debt — called a “mortgage deficiency” — could swell to become more than the homeowner paid for the property…….
Correction:
more than the “homeowner” BORROWED to pay for the property.
The bank just wants back what they borrowed. They are entitled to it.
After all, it was a “loan”. I like mortgage deficiencies. They’re like a restraint on excessive borrowing.
I don’t like mortgage deficiencies, they allow the mortgage company to offer more assurances to Wall Street. If you make a loan on something, you better be sure the collateral supports it.
The future salary is the collateral here. Upon death of the borrower, the debt should be forgiven. Even in other culture, the debt of a father is inhered by his offspring. Although this sound slavery to me, but borrowing money without paying back is also sound robery to me.
“more than the “homeowner” BORROWED” ……plus interest and fees.
“I like mortgage deficiencies.” vs. “I don’t like mortgage deficiencies”
Doesn’t seem to matter, or matters very little. The idea behind recourse loans was that it was thought they’d lower interest rates and encourage lending in those states. Except lending has become national (even if “real estate is local”). Interest rates on the whole vary very, very little between recourse and non-recourse states.
In addition, too many FBs refinanced, turning their previous non-recourse loans into recourse loans.
Plus we hear of a lot of instances (albeit on a case-by-case basis) of banks waiving the deficiency because they “can’t get blood from a stone”.
It’s important to note that there is lots of gray area between recourse and non-recourse. Every state has it’s own law(s) about how deficiency balances are treated. For example, California and Arizona are both considered non-recourse states. However, in California, you lose that protection if you refinance. In Arizona, you only lose that protection if you refinance AND take out additional cash. And after reading/understanding the law, you have to look at case history to determine how courts in that state interpret the law as it isn’t always written clearly.
Have never understood why rates/requirements are essentially the same in a recourse state vs a non-recourse state. I would never lend in Arizona without 20% down, a solid appraisal, and significantly higher interest rates.
Foreclosures surge in California
DISCOVERY BAY
February 14, 2011 9:38pm
• Filings up in most Central Valley counties
• ‘Banks remain reluctant to aggressively foreclose’
January brought significant increases in foreclosure sales in California, including the Central Valley, according to figures from ForeclosureRadar Inc., a Discovery Bay-based company that says it tracks every foreclosure filing to its resolution.
The increases return volumes to pre robo-signing levels, the company says.
“While the increase is significant, we’ve seen larger surges after moratoriums or delays have played out in the past,” says Sean O’Toole, founder and president of ForeclosureRadar Inc.
“For example in California after the delays caused by Senate Bill 1137 we saw a surge in Notice of Default filings that far eclipsed any prior period. That is not the case here,” he says. “Despite months of slow sales, we’ve simply returned to prior levels, which to me indicates banks remain reluctant to aggressively foreclose despite the time it takes to foreclose being at or near record levels, and large inventories of properties still scheduled for foreclosure sale.”
Reversing a four-month declining trend, Notice of Default filings rose 6.9 percent month-over-month in California, while Notice of Trustee Sale filings dropped 13.8 percent from the prior month.
Foreclosure filings year-over-year showed mild change, with Notice of Default filings down 3.3 percent and Notice of Trustee Sale filings slipping just 1.4 percent from January 2010.
Foreclosure sales skyrocketed from December, with 51.5 percent more sales Back to Bank and 52.8 percent more properties purchased by Third Parties, typically investors.
…
This is why I wouldn’t mind seeing the copper thieves step up their visits to bank-owned houses. It might give the banks some incentive to stop playing extend-and-pretend and mark-to-fantasy accounting games, and flush the toxic waste out of the system.
Looked at Realty Trac for the first time in a long while. The areas that I have been looking for a place to buy for the last 8 years 33410, 33458, 33469, 33418, 33455 have loads of bank owned properties but only about 1 out of 10 for sale. Not much of a shadow, they are sitting there in broad daylight.
Of course the last house I rented in 33458 went through the foreclosure process for 3 years and was sold as a short sale and never showed up on Realty Trac at all. Oh well time to go, the cows won`t milk themselves.
Northeast Palm Beach County was relatively late to the party. I have however seen homes under the $100,000 mark. Would you actually want to live there? Probably not. I think we’ve got a ways to go in Palm Beach County, not because homes aren’t affordable, but because there are too darn many of them.
“Think about the possibilities for medical diagnosis support, for better anticipating the energy needs of utilities, or for… protecting insurers, banks and governments from fraud,” Weber said.
See that’s how it begins: They only see the benevolence & usefulness…not…”turn on the master” scenario…just like a split atom or a spliced DNA food staple.
Hwy edit rewrite:
“…protecting insurers, banks and governments from fraud generated by malicious conniving peon customers,”
IBM’s Watson Wins in Jeopardy, Needs Lessons in US Geography:
By: Fahmida Y. Rashid
Watson appeared to have breezed through Double Jeopardy, but that was apparently not the case. During the course of the game, Watson had crashed multiple times during the taping, said NOVA producer Michael Bicks, who had been at the taping of the show. The half hour match took four hours to tape, he said.
At the end of the game, the IBM team was still nervous about the outcome of the tournament because they knew “all the different ways it could lose,” Bicks said.
Looney Tune Jepoordy:
Category: “Speed of light”
Alex: “How long does it take the sun’s light to reach you?”
Watson: “8.3478593759843922429411593224284223384 minutes, approximately, OK Alex, I’m sorta guessing here…”
Bugs: “eh, that depends upon where you’re standing Alex…is this a Trix’s question Doc? …if it is, you all got the wrong wabbit!”
That’s what happens when you try to simulate intelligence with algorithms.
Is that the same computer Goldman uses to control the stock market?
Goldman is not controlling the stock market. The FED is giving Goldman, WFC, JP MORGAN, BAC and CITI piles of money to buy stocks and keep raising the prices of the stocks.
Goldman’s computers just front-run all the trades, without those pesky transaction fees that all of us would have to pay.
Whenever orders come in, whether the order is for a price higher or lower by a few pennies, Goldman gets to “buy-in” in advance of your order, then sell you the stock you ordered at a higher price, within milliseconds……………..Skimming profits on every trade that comes their way.
This is not controlling the market. It’s just legalized stealing, sanctioned by our Treasury and the SEC, working hand-in-hand to see that these “special” TBTF companies always win.
In the “old” America, these companies would have been broken up under ANTI-trust legislation. Too big to Fail is Too Big.
Goldman uses the Fed’s printing press and the co-opted regulators and so-called enforcement agencies to control the stock market. QE II isn’t going into the productive economy or infrastructure. It’s going straight to Wall Street in the form of $125 billion in free POMO gambling chips every month.
Actually, the whole “watson vs humans” jeapordy competition was skewed massively.
I mean, sure, it’s cool that the computer can parse the information and respond with a correct answer, but watsons ability to win had more to do with mechanics.
Namely, the buzzer.
As a question is read in jeapordy, the contestants almost always know the answer well before the question has been completely read. After the question has been read, a light comes on that signals you can buzz in (early buzzing in causes a slight delay before the next buzz-in, and can cost you a round, so you need to buzz in AFTER the light comes on).
The issue here is, watson is able to respond to that light turning on the instant it happens. No lag, no eye-brain-nervous system-hand-muscle movement. If you watch the match, you can see ken jennings for instance attempting to click in on almost -every single- question. In most of these instances, watson beat him to the punch and was able to answer. The few times it -didn’t- were when the computer had a poor idea of what the solution was (it didn’t buzz in).
In short, this competition was like having a lead throwing competition with a gun. Both human and gun can get the lead across the room, but clearly in a speed contest the gun is going to win.
Good analysis.
Borders Files for Bankruptcy
New York Times website | February 16, 2011 | Michael J. de la Merced
Borders Group, the beleaguered bookseller, filed for bankruptcy protection on Wednesday after failing to secure agreements with publishers and other vendors about reorganizing its debt.
The bookseller listed $1.29 billion in debt and $1.27 billion in assets in a filing in federal bankruptcy court in Manhattan.
“It has become increasingly clear that in light of the environment of curtailed customer spending, our ongoing discussions with publishers and other vendor related parties, and the company’s lack of liquidity, Borders Group does not have the capital resources it needs to be a viable competitor and which are essential for it to move forward with its business strategy to reposition itself successfully for the long term,” Mike Edwards, Borders’ president, said in a statement.
I think there just isn’t enough demand for separate bookstores, video stores, record stores, and news stands anymore. Information is going digital, and no longer needs stuff to hold it.
What the companies selling information as stuff need to do is merge together into one company selling all of it, for those who still want it that way, complete with cafe, lounge areas and other amenities.
I recommend calling the new company “Ned Ludd’s.”
borders is just like GM.Run the company into the ground then emerge with some new stock to sell.Same old gimmick.
I remember when there were small bookstores In the
malls. Those seemed to be the perfect size for a bookstore until Borders & B&N starting building huge two story stores.
Here in Boise the Borders moved from a large location in a strip mall into a smaller store in the “mall”. I notice it’s not on the list of 200 stores being closed.
The one in Santa Barbara is empty. I think it was 4 stories tall.
Back when I was a University of Michigan student, I spent more than a few non-class hours in the original Borders on State Street.
Oh, was that a store. Great wooden benches that you could sit on for hours. And read to your heart’s content. And classical music playing in the background. I was in heaven.
Truth be told, I wasn’t the only U-M student who was using Borders as the venue for a study break. Quite frankly, I wondered how the place stayed in business.
Then I saw people like my parents come into town and practically shop the store down. Ditto for the U-M faculty. They loved that Borders on State Street.
IMHO, if Borders had stuck to its State Street knitting, it wouldn’t have gotten into so much trouble. It could have become as successful as Powell’s in Portland. Or the Tattered Cover in Denver. Or, what the heck, Politics and Prose in DC.
Reuters reminds us of this aspect of the Border’s story.
In what has turned out to be a catastrophic mistake, Borders in 2001 outsourced its online bookselling to Amazon, waiting until 2008 to relaunch Borders.com. In the first three quarters of 2010, those sales still made up only 2 percent of Borders’ business.
For all the pure play Internet companies that failed, there were also a lot of brick and mortars that failed because they waited to long to “grok” the Internet.
Good point, ecofeco. It’s one of the key reasons why I’ve shied away from making small businesses, specifically, retail bricks/mortars, a key part of my business.
Why not? Because so few of them considered websites to be very important. And, no they’re not flocking to Facebook or Twitter as their website substitute.
I’m having exactly the same problem. Small shops have NO clue how important a website is nor how to utilize it when they do get one.
And of course the usual, too cheap to make it worth doing for them.
I would disagree about Canada but good article…
The housing menace: Fannie & Freddie must die now
NY Post | February 15, 2011 | STEPHEN B. MEISTER
Mind you, Fannie and Freddie have cost the taxpayers $160 billion in direct subsidies since they were taken over in August 2008. The country would be better off if they shut down today.
Housing finance is incredibly simple to get right: Require 20 percent down payments and make sure the borrowers have income of at least 2½ times their monthly nut, and guess what happens? Nothing — no defaults; no bubble.
That’s how housing markets work when the government stays out of them, and it’s how ours worked for the half century before the feds started twisting the arms of private lenders to make mortgage loans to the poor.
Just look at Canada. It has 20-percent-down loans and nothing like Fannie or Freddie — and its default rate is a 20th of ours.
Wrong, wrong, wrong. Canada has 5% down 35 year mortgages. The banks even kick back the 5% to help the property virgins fulfill the dream. C.M.H.C. is our fanny/freddy. It insures the mortgages with tax payer money. Sound familiar. Canada’s bubble is huge. The rules were changed and by mid-March you might hear a large pop south of our border. Most of you will recognize it.
The rules were changed and by mid-March you might hear a large pop south of our border. Most of you will recognize it.
South of *your* border? Are you planning on nuking us next month?
Nah, we’re going to nuke ourselves.
Canada’s bubble is huge.
Nahh. You might have a little bubble but it’s different in Canada. Really. I’d say your houses deserve a 100K premium over USA houses because of “location, location, location”. And what’s 100K a month at 5% interest on a 35 year loan? Less than 10% of the cost of an American family Blue Cross plan?
Look what you get in Canada:
1. Universal health-care I mean you guys can actually get sick and have the luxury about being able to concentrate on getting well instead of paying maybe 50K on medical stuff. In the USA 60% of BK’s involve medical bills.
2. No one hates Canadian expats.
3. You have less extreme nutballs than the USA. Do you have a Canadian Glenn Beck? If you do, I’ll bet he’s not nearly as popular as ours.
4. Canadians get 26 days paid vacation compared to USA’s 13 and have greater safety nets and vibrant, productive capitalism.
5. No wars. That’s worth something. I think I’d pay $127 a month for no wars. Or more.
6. You guys are sitting on a gold-mine of nat resources with a tiny population.
7. Canadian unemployment is way less than USA’s
8. Have you had to bail out banks? Did you fraudulently securitize mortgages to a great extent percentage wise?
See. It’s different in Canada.
1. Have you seen what we pay in taxes?
2.Ask Floridians about the Quebecois.
3.Don Cherry
4.Agreed.
5.Troops in Khandahar since 03.
6.Agreed but we are stupid and end up selling them off cheap.
7.B.S. numbers, just like you guys.
8. Feds took 600 billion off banks books and dumped it on to C.M.H.C. Taxpayer backed now.
1. Have you seen what we (Canadians) pay in taxes?
On the whole, when one includes services received such as medical, mental health, retirements, Canadian taxes are not much higher at all for the middle-class Canadians than for middle-class Americans. However, IMO and many’s, Canadians receive more services for taxes paid. They also have much greater security when it comes to getting sick and not losing everything or not being treated.
Canada’s total governmental spending was about 36% of GDP[5] vs. 31% in the US.[3] In addition, caution must be used when comparing taxes across countries, due to the different services each offers. Whereas the Canadian healthcare system is 70% government-funded, the US system is just under 50% government-funded (mostly via Medicare and Medicaid); adding the additional healthcare-spending burden to the above figures to obtain comparable numbers (+3% for Canada, +7% for the US) gives adjusted expenditures of 38–39% of GDP for each of the two nations.
The taxes are applied the same as well. Canada’s income tax system is more heavily biased against the highest income earners, thus while Canada’s income tax rate is higher on average, the bottom fifty percent of the population is roughly taxed the same on income as in the United States. However, Canada has a national goods and services tax of 5% on most purchases, wiki
A great country. I’d add that the men are nicer and women are better looking, on average, too.
The one weak point is business. Canadians are actually more entreprenuerial, as the national health scheme encourages self-employment, but the place generates few new large companies.
Perhaps it’s the small size of the market — and perhaps that’s why so many successful Canadians end up down here.
In Ontario we have a 13% tax on most goods and services, Provincial Income Tax as well as Federal income tax. We have very high sin taxes as well. 24 beer $35.00+. The health care system is still working but under present spending trends will approach 70% of Provincial budget by 2025. And it is cold here.
Take off! Hoser.
Nice tribute Rio. You say a lot more than you know about Canada.
Nice tribute Rio. You say a lot more than you know about Canada.
No BlueSkye, I was mostly correct on all my points. (sorry if that grates on you Blue Skye) See my above wiki tax quote. Let’s look again.
1. Have you seen what we pay in taxes?
Addressed above. Canadian middle-class and poor’s tax burden is similar to USA’s when including services rendered such as medical.
2.Ask Floridians about the Quebecois.
A few Floridians disliking a few Quebecois does not compare to the American expat experiences and vibe around the world. Canadians disliked as much as Americans? Not even close. I’ve never heard one anti-Canadian thing overseas in my life. You would not likely know. I do. My point here is valid.
3.Don Cherry
Of course every country has it’s far right as they should but…..Please make a case that Canadian right-wing nutjobs are as influential, hateful, mean spirited and dominate entire political parties, AM radio and networks as they do in the USA. They don’t period. My point here is valid.
4.Agreed.
Agreed (that means it’s valid I think)
5.Troops in Khandahar since 03.
A gray area however I was referring to wars such as the Iraq and Vietnam wars (less justifiable than the Afgan war) where Canadians were not much involved. Surprised BlueSky? Canada is involved in a lot less wars than America. So my point here is mostly valid.
6.Agreed but we are stupid and end up selling them (nat. resources) off cheap.
“Cheap” is a relative term, things can change and my point is valid.
7.B.S. (unemployment) numbers, just like you guys.
Canadian BS numbers look way better than USA’s BS numbers so based on what we have to base it on, I am again correct here.
8. Feds took 600 billion off banks books and dumped it on to C.M.H.C. Taxpayer backed now.
This point cannot much be held against me because I had asked questions about these matters and did not make a statement regarding them. (That is what a question mark means Blue Skye)
Sorry Blue Skye. Your point about RioAmericaninBrasil being wrong was about 85% wrong. But look at the bright side. You were 15% right. Congratulations. You’re making some slight progress against me.
Rio, if you are making any concessions at all then I was 100% correct.
3. You have less extreme nutballs than the USA. Do you have a Canadian Glenn Beck? If you do, I’ll bet he’s not nearly as popular as ours.
Believe me, the place is full of Loonies.
P.S. Typing this in Smiths Falls Ontario.
Rio, if you are making any concessions at all then I was 100% correct.
I will make concessions when they are due. And yes, you being 15% correct would make your written jab 100% correct, literally.
However, whether you were 100% correct in your intended implication only you can know and I can surmise.
P.S. Typing this in 90 degrees and high humidity.
We’ve got high humidity here today too. Less a few degrees though.
but it is sooooo cold in Canada!!
File this under socialism doesn’t work anywhere it is tried.
Coming soon to America
———–
Portugal: Young generation robbed of its future
Presseurop | 2/14/2011 | José Manuel Fernandes
When the IMF intervened for the second time in Portugal, I was 26 years old. Looking back on that grim period when black flags hung over the gates of factories in suburban Lisbon and workers wondered in dismay at the months of back pay they were owed, I remember having lunch with an incorrigible optimist at the café Martinho de Arcada [in Lisbon], who made one simple remark I will never forget: “Have you noticed that, in spite of all our current problems, we are still better off than our parents generation? Remember how it was when we were little…”
He was right, and what is more, our parents’ standard of living was clearly better than the one their parents had. However, when I consider the outlook for my children and the generation to come, it is obvious that this trajectory of improvement has come to a halt. And it has come to a halt because we have ruined everything — or at least because we have contributed to a situation where no further progress is possible.
“I am from the unpaid generation” Initially, they were nicknamed the “500-euros generation,” because, although they were highly qualified, most of them were unable to find jobs that paid more than the minimum wage. But today this epithet no longer applies, because the situation is even worse. One in four young job seekers is simply unable to find work (a figure rises to one in three for higher education graduates). And notwithstanding the fact that they have completed their university studies and have degrees to show for it, a sizeable proportion of those who are employed work as taxi drivers, or in lowly paid jobs in call centres and supermarkets.
In many cases they do not even receive proper wages, but are paid with recibos verdes [the ‘green receipts’ originally designed for the remuneration of self-employed workers that have come to symbolise insecure employment in Portugal], which will soon be heavily taxed by the government. In view of this situation, most of them are forced to live at home with their parents, and are unable to settle down or take on adult responsibilities.
They are right: an internship is better than nothing, as is a job where you are only paid in luncheon vouchers. And failing that, you can always fall back on yet another post-doc scholarship, even though you know that a masters and doctorate is unlikely to improve your prospects in the working world.
If they want jobs, they will just have to wait Not to put too fine a point on it, the young people of this generation have been robbed — and we are to blame. In the fervour that followed the Carnation Revolution [which put an end to the dictatorship in 1974], the euphoria prompted by our accession to the EU [in 1986] and the suicidal consumer frenzy buoyed by low interest rates that came hot on the heels of the adoption of the single currency, one single generation disposed of the wealth of two generations to come. As it stands, public and private debt in this country has reached a level that is greater than three years of GDP, and this is the legacy that our young people will now inherit.
We want it all: job security with good salaries, regular pay-rises, shorter working hours and early retirement; first and second homes plasma TVs, and cars and mobile phone for everyone in the family. We believe that all of this is possible, and when someone has the temerity to suggest that this is not the case, we cling to our privileges like shipworms. In demanding the impossible, and with no willingness to accept the slightest compromise, we bang on about our “social entitlements” and our rights as established by the Carnation Revolution.
But look at the country that we are now handing over to the younger generation. In this land of decaying city centres, if they want homes they will have to buy them because three decades have gone by without any progress on rent laws. If they want jobs, they will just have to wait, no matter how qualified they are. There is simply no way to budge their elders who will hold on to their jobs for life. No matter how well they perform in university, they will not be able to obtain jobs their either.
Time for the “anything goes” generation to hand over power Just look at how we have pillaged the pension system that was supposed to sustain their retirement: under the terms of the 2007 Vieira da Silva reform, the best today’s young people can hope for is a pension worth only half of what their elders now receive. They may not have noticed, but it is worth wondering: what will become of the “live-at-home with mum and dad” generation in 30 or 40 years time?
File this under corporatism doesn’t work anywhere it is tried.
Already in America
———–
USA: Young generation robbed of its future by corporate elite
See how that works?
ZING!
Wait, are you suggesting that just because this kind of stuff is good for Wall Street, workers aged 35 and under might not be perfectly grateful to look forward to a lifetime of short-lived, $10/hour no-benefits service jobs that will barely pay their living costs?
Commie!
—
See how that works?
I suppose I feel this, mostly because I’m on the cusp of that younger generation.
Today I’m faced with the fact that my family will -have- to be a dual income household to live comfortably (unlike my parents/grandparents etc who had one working household member). Job security isn’t what it used to be either. A decade or two ago my wife would have already achieved tenure as a teacher, and been extremely secure in her job. Teacher layoffs were virtually unheard of and the demand for new teachers was very high. Not exactly the case today. I’m confident I’ll be able to find a job in teaching myself when I finish up my own degree, but it’s still scary out there. There is a very real possibility that I could finish my degree and find myself unable to procure employment - ending up right back where I started.
Not a pleasant thought.
The unpleasant thought it what your old age will be like, after a lifetime of paying for other people’s old age.
By then the “young” will have grown weary of paying and we will of course do without…
There are plenty of teacher jobs out there - in private schools.
For public-union-insane pension-can’t be fired for anything-pay nothing for benefits-salary increases every year no matter what-retire in 25 years-every holiday off-teacher jobs….yes, those are hard to get.
Yup. Now it was a few years ago, but my brother once had one of those jobs. After graduating phi beta kappa from an ivy league school, getting a masters degree, doing a one year teaching internship at the best private school in the state, and two additional years full time teaching experience, he was making about $21,000 a year.
Did he go into teaching to make alot of money or becuase he liked to teach or dealing with kids?
Or does he measure the worth of his profession by his paycheck?
They should be paid more just for putting up with ed school courses.
They should be paid more just for putting up with ed school courses.
Were you in the same ed classes as my mother? Because you are playing her song, word for word and note for note.
He did it because he wanted to, but after a while he realized that liking something that would never allow you to support yourself (my parents had to supplement his salary) wasn’t viable. Loving your work is nice. Not mooching off your family for the rest of your life is mandatory. He went to grad school (again) and is now a tenured professor. I think he liked teaching kids and advising the hiking club more.
Your comment that people who want to teach should do it in private schools is great if we decide that only people with trust funds and/or highly paid spouses should be teachers.
Your comment that people who want to teach should do it in private schools is great if we decide that only people with trust funds and/or highly paid spouses should be teachers.
It seem that many have decided to make the decision to be the deciders.
I hope more trust fund babies take this route. Go into teaching, that is. They are, IMHO, likely to be better educated themselves. Speak grammatically, have a grasp of the classics, understand that you actually have to do more that BS and jive to understand math, have actual expertise in the subject matter in which they teach.
IMO, the teachers’ unions have dumbed education down to the lowest common denominator, so as not to jeopardize their membership with termination for incompetence. The more nonunionized teachers we get going forward, the better, at least given the current construct.
Dumb teachers are well suited to the objectives of a corporatist/fascist state, for which an ignorant population is a requirement. A dumpkopff (?sp?) is more easily manipulated than somebody who knows enough to question premises. While the PTB was working to dumb us down, they discovered indebtedness was an an an additional asset.
The desired end state? A mass of dumb, broke, indebted sheeple, who would gladly claw at one another for the crumbs left over from the PTB, while rushing to do their bidding.
The joke’s on us, and IMHO, ignorant teachers are a large part of the problem.
The desired end state? A mass of dumb, broke, indebted sheeple, who would gladly claw at one another for the crumbs left over from the PTB, while rushing to do their bidding.
The new slavery. You don’t even have to provide them with the very basics in most cases, it can just be their problem.
I wish you the best of luck Incinerate…I bothers me to see your generation do what you were asked to do (get an education) and then the opportunities not being there for you after keeping your end of the bargain…
Well, I was successful without the degree and I’m confident I’ll be fine either way. Hell, working as a teacher will inevitably be a pay cut for me (worth it for the better lifestyle though).
I -would- hate to get there and have the rug pulled out from under me though. I’d feel pretty unhappy if I went through all this trouble to end up right where I started.
You know, I’d have started a business instead - but don’t even get me started on how ridiculously difficult it is to start a -real- business these days. So many hoops, bonding, regulations, expenses. If you’re trying to do anything beyond you’re front door you’re going to run smack into a protectionist racket the likes of which the US and the world has never seen. Sad really. Look at our history of entrepreneurship. Some of the most successful companies today wouldn’t be possible to build from the ground up in the current regulatory environment. The bar is set too high for the little guy to bootstrap. I wanted to do something simple and relatively inexpensive (without regulatory baloney, maybe 20k in startup costs), and discovered that the hoops I had to jump through to get things off the ground were completely unrealistic. I needed a piece or property for them to inspect before I even had a license to do business, a ridiculously large bond, expensive licenses that practically required blood ritual to acquire.
If I was just able to go get started - the way my father and grandfather could, I’d be -just- fine. Yet, people keep telling me America’s entrepreneurial spirit is going to see us through this. Sigh.
A lot of us are in that situation: get the education, and then get tossed out on the street so some manager can get a bigger bonus… nope, no jobs out there… none at all - but that was the goal of the Powers That Be all along.
I’m thinking more along the lines of: A nation without a true and productive industrial base cannot provide jobs and benefits to its citizenry.
“Socialism” seems to work OK in Germany. They were even able to absorb the relatively backward Eastern part of the nation after the wall fell.
I have no doubt that the fact that they are doing quite well in the current economic climate, despite their socialeest/commie, workers paradise, is driving a lot of neocons to distraction.
Weren’t they supposed fail sometime over the last 20 years?
File this under “We’ll kick this can so far down the road that the our grandkids’ great grandchildern will never see it”. That is pretty much the plan, I think.
File this under socialism doesn’t work anywhere it is tried. Coming soon to America
2banana, I’m sure you’re a pretty decent fellow and maybe even fun to have a beer with but your perception of what is really going on in America in regards to your “socialism” terror has to be based on ignorance to what the concept means and what is actually going on in America. Now I didn’t say you were stupid. I said you were ignorant to many realities on this subject but relax. Everyone including myself is ignorant of many things.
Now I’m going to prove what I just said by stating two facts and asking you to reconcile the two. You will not be able to do so in a satisfactory manner thereby proving my point that you are ignorant when you constantly imply the USA is going “socialist”.
Fact 1:
socialism definition: a theory or system of social organization that advocates the vesting of the ownership and control of the means of production and distribution, of capital, land, etc., in the community as a whole. dictionary dot com.
Fact 2: “America (has a) bubbling 30-year wealth gap, where the top 1% went from owning 9% of America’s wealth to owning 23%” source: marketwatch dot com
Now 2banana, please reconcile the above 2 facts inline with your often espoused theory that America is or is going “socialist”.
You can’t because if America were truly going socialist. The wealth gap would have narrowed the past thirty years but it has not. 30 years ago the richest 1% owned 9% of the wealth. Today they have 23% of the wealth.
I look forward to the logic of your response to my question.
There’s theory and practice. The dictionary provides the theory and the elite parasites in society provide the practice.
There’s theory and practice. The dictionary provides the theory and the elite parasites in society provide the practice.
Blue Skye: your statement has not much to do with my challenge for someone to reconcile these three simple things:
1. The definition of “socialism”: “the ownership and control of the means of production and distribution, of capital, land, etc., in the community as a whole.”
2. In America, 30 years ago the richest 1% owned 9% of the wealth. Today they have 23% of the wealth.
and 3. The constant spouting that the USA is turning socialistic.
Ready? Reconcile.
Look to #2 and you can answer your own question: In response to the widenig rift our government has chosen to “fill the gap” with government cheese/programs for the demoted middle class. While catering to the benefit of the top level, the gowing number of peasants gets more controlled/managed. A disturbing trend toward socialism/corporatism/corruptism/bankster owns your ass-ism, whatever you want to call it.
Look to #2 and you can answer your own question:
Well, you’re making more sense than others so far but you still didn’t reconcile the three points above I challenged to be reconciled.
Don’t worry. Because they can’t be.
My point Rio is that Socialism is only a cloak, as is Capitalism, for the very same type of wolves. When dishonest men rise to power, it doesn’t matter what you call their supposed program.
You could call the Scottish Clearances Socialism if you wanted to. Wouldn’t change anything.
My point Rio is that Socialism is only a cloak, as is Capitalism, for the very same type of wolves. When dishonest men rise to power, it doesn’t matter what you call their supposed program.
Here why the words and labels matter at this particular time in American history.
The greatest damage done to our country at this time, is from outsourcing, the decline of wages and good jobs, the intense concentration of wealth and a horrible health insurance system and these problems were NOT caused by socialism. How could they have been?
These problems were caused by out of control capitalism. If you can’t identify the problem, of which words are a key tool to identification, then how can you solve the problem?
Tell me how outsourcing, decline of wages, lack of good jobs, the concentration wealth and lousy health insurance was caused by socialism’s oversimplified definition of “sharing the wealth” or its implication of “looking out for the majority of people”??
We’ve seen the results of 40 years of wild west unregulated capitalism and it’s been GREAT for 1% of us but is destroying most of us.
If we don’t recognize, define and guard against what is killing us, and words and definitions help to do so, well then we will be killed.
I don’t believe you will awaken anyone with wrongly applied labels. The villian here is not either of those two philosophies of government. You can have a great government in the parlor and leave the back door of the kitchen open. Let’s call our system Stupidism or Enablism.
Hmmm, Russia has a huge wealth gap as well yes?
The problem with wealth sharing schemes is that even if we took Bill Gates money and “shared” it globally, this only amounts to some $7 each. Worse it is doubtful Bill would have really bothered going past a certain point, so the wealth would never have existed at all.
The problem with wealth sharing schemes
Wealth sharing “schemes”? “Schemes”?
Would you then refer to the past 40 years in America as one vast wealth concentration “scheme”?
If so, then you are consistent.
Fact: In every socialist scoiety - there are those who exempt themselves from the rules and live large.
Happened and is happening today in the USSR, China, Cuba, North Korea, etc.
If you been to quite a few socialist and communist countries in my lifetime.
Socialism works for the few and gives misery to many.
The “few” are connected to those in power and that is their ONLY requirment to the good life.
Getting to be like that in America today - bankers, union leaders, TBTF corporate leaders, etc will NOT live under the same rules they expect us to live under.
Do you really think obama or any democrat leader or any union leader is going to wait 5 hours in line to see a government doctor???
But they damn will expect you to follow the rules.
“Democracy and socialism have nothing in common but one word: equality. But notice the difference: while democracy seeks equality in liberty, socialism seeks equality in restraint and servitude.”
–Alexis de Tocqueville
Getting to be like that in America today - bankers, union leaders, TBTF corporate leaders, etc will NOT live under the same rules they expect us to live under.
As I say, those who cry “socialism” in America are ignorant to its meaning.
Also, if people like you really mean what you just said above, you would be in the streets screaming bloody murder about the bankers, bailouts, offshoring, CEO pay, monopolies, lobbyists and big money ruling everything. You damn sure would not be voting Republican.
Instead I hear your group screaming about kids now being able to qualify for health insurance with pre-existing conditions as “Soshalism!!”
What a joke.
Fact: In every corporatist scoiety - there are those who exempt themselves from the rules and live large.
Happened and is happening today in the USSR, China, Cuba, South Korea, etc.
If you been to quite a few corporatist and crony capitalist countries in my lifetime.
Corporatist capitalism works for the few and gives misery to many.
The “few” are connected to those in power and that is their ONLY requirment to the good life.
Getting to be like that in America today - bankers, business leaders, TBTF corporate leaders, etc will NOT live under the same rules they expect us to live under.
Do you really think John Boner or any republican leader or any business leader is going to wait 5 hours in line to see a privatized doctor???
But they damn will expect you to follow the rules.
“Democracy and corporatist capitalism have nothing in common but one word: equality. But notice the difference: while democracy seeks equality in liberty, coporatist capitalism seeks equality in restraint and servitude.”
I uncovered your blindspot for you again.
“Socialism works for the few and gives misery to many.”
You tried to move the goal posts. You are talking about totalitarian Communist nations.
There are plenty of democratic, socialist nations where the “misery index” is way, way below what it is in the good old crony capitalistic USA.
“Socialism works for the few and gives misery to many.”
Then WE obviously have socialism for the rich.
I think what we have is a fascist state, as classically defined: one which is run by corporations for their benefit.
BINGO!!!
That Army microbiologist who committed suicide after the FBI said they had scientific proof he sent the 2001 anthrax letters? Turns out they sort of made that up.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/anthrax-letters-sept-11-attacks-national-research-council/story?id=12922509
Duh! I can remember McCain on Letterman right after 9/11 saying Iraq was behind the attack and Colin Powell holding up anthrax at the UN to prove Iraq has biological weapons.
I guess the anthrax attacks along with the location of Bin Ladin will forever be a 9/11 mystery.
Selling fear and war…Its what we do best…
Yup, and by the way, what’s the shelf life of duct tape? Just wondering…
“Selling fear and war…Its what we do best…”
Create the problem, then sell the solution.
THAT’S what we do best.
Filed under: “Something new was “deliberately” tossed into the “Truth, and only the Truth so help you Karen.”…gearbox:
Watchdog joins Daily Pilot in calling for release of emails
February 15th, 2011 by Tony Saavedra, OC Register investigative reporter
In this new tug-of-war over emails, the Pilot need not feel alone. The Watchdog hears that the information is even ungettable by school board members. This is ridiculous, that not only the taxpayers but the people elected by the taxpayers are being kept in the dark.
The Watchdog is adding its bark to the crusade by our brethren at the Daily Pilot to obtain e-mails between Newport-Mesa schools chief Jeffrey Hubbard — who is on paid leave, facing criminal charges of misappropriation — and board president Walter Davenport. The Pilot’s request under the California Public Records Act was rejected by the Newport-Mesa Unified School District under the argument that they are exempt due to the “deliberative process privilege.”
Peter Scheer, executive director of the First Amendment Coalition, offers this translation: “When agencies can’t find anything in the law that allows them to withhold information, they resort to the deliberative process privilege.”
I’m shocked I tell you. Just shocked.
Now let’s find some way to blame the unions.
“Implementation of the Affordable Care Act of 2010 presents a major challenge to the IRS.
“The Internal Revenue Service says it will need an battalion of 1,054 new auditors and staffers and new facilities at a cost to taxpayers of more than $359 million in fiscal 2012 just to watch over the initial implementation of President Obama’s healthcare reforms. Among the new corps will be 81 workers assigned to make sure tanning salons pay a new 10 percent excise tax. ”
That’s Affordability that we can believe in! $300K per staffer.
usnews com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/02/15/healthcare-reform-law-requires-new-irs-army-of-1054
Someone pointed out a tax on tanning salons is tantamount to a white person tax, since who else would use one?
If a tax is to be fairly levied based on the idea something may be bad for you, how about a sugar tax?
Obamacare looks a lot more like a tax scheme than an affordable medical scheme…
I love the outrage over tanning salon tax! Like it’s some national strategic resource!
On the other hand, it makes me realize just how effed up we are to apply ANY importance to it. Let’s get outraged over scrapbook and pirate stores while we’re at it, shall we?
I love the outrage over tanning salon tax! Like it’s some national strategic resource!
From what they tell me, Brazil just banned tanning salons because of the danger.
Very weird on many levels IMO, but it puts a tax into perspective.
Obama’s HHS Is Bigger Than LBJ’s Government
That’s what happens when you offshore so many jobs that over 40 million Americans cannot afford to feed or shelter themselves.
Wages fall to 3rd world levels while the cost of living stubborly clings to 1st world levels.
You left out sheer population growth as well.
I was just watching CNBC. One year ago the Mortgage Bankers Association short sold their building for $41 million. Today the people who bought it sold it for $100 million.
Layers of irony there.
http://banktalk.org/2010/02/08/mortgage-bankers-association-succumb-to-a-short-sale/
If they could just keep doubling the price and flipping it then we could all get new Hummers.
They finally put the fire out near my house. Fire chief says the fire was started “suspiciously.” No mention that the owner of the land recently declared bankruptcy.
Can somebody please explain to me how these dismal numbers add up to a rebound in new home construction?
Year-on-year change (January 2010-January 2011)
Building permits: -10.7%
Housing starts: -2.6%
Housing completions -22.7%
Housing starts rebound
Permits fall as expected, though after a strong gain in December as builders rushed to avoid building-code changes in several key states.
NAR is a legalized crime syndicate. Realtors are the gangsters.
Your average realtor does not have his/her “stuff” together enough to be valuable to any sophisticated organization of gangsters. The ones I know are just plain dumb parrots/followers who try just about any new get-rich-quick scheme that comes along. They spend more time on their image than anything else. Even they can’t tell when they are lying.
I see the average realtor as nothing more than a sales and marketing associate. When you walk in the door, their job is to convince you to buy a house. No different than a used car salesman or someone at a menswear shop trying to sell you a suit.
Due to the nature of the business, they know a bit about housing, and they know how to fill in the forms and how to use MRIS. And they know how to cash the commission checks, of course. But I would venture a guess that most of them don’t think much about the big picture. Especially if the big picture tells them that they might be out of business soon (how would you reconcile the knowledge that there is a bubble with trying to sell someone a house today so that you can pay your own mortgage)…
A Couple of Non-Realtor Thoughts on Today’s Housing Market:
This is a REALLY bad time to buy a house. Here’s why:
1. We are at historic interest rate lows. Never mind that we are at historic interest rate lows because of the insane policies of the Federal Reserve. The fact is, as interest rates rise from here, house prices will fall, as the how-much-a-month equation results in lower “affordable” purchase prices for the same monthly payment.
2. Property taxes will not fall at the same rate at house prices. School districts and local governments are strapped for cash and a homeowner is literally one of the few sitting ducks they can target for revenue.
3. Unemployment and under-employment are rising. When you hear that the “jobless rate” is falling, don’t believe it. Not “counting” those who have exhausted their 99 weeks of unemployment is an insult to your intelligence. And to compare 50,000 “new” minimum wage jobs
with 50,000 “old” 50K per year jobs is likewise just stupidity.
4. The next generation doesn’t want to live in the older generation’s used housing. Stucco McMansions are the new Edsels and Nehru jackets.
5. The “baby-boomers” are tapped out and ready to move into the kid’s basements. Don’t expect anything except selling pressure on real estate from them.
6. The shadow inventory banks hold would supply the market for the next 50 years. Any losses they take will be borne by the taxpayers in general. Any loss YOU take will take will also belong to YOU.
7. The exploded myth that real estate is a great investment or that it “only goes up” will have more fallout than a 20 megaton U238 bomb.
And just about the same half-life. Longer than most of us will ever live.
These are my lucky 7 for the Happy Horse$hit Realty crowd today.
Maybe there should be many more, but you get the idea.
To nitpick, U238 is not used for A-bombs: the other isotope U235 is the active ingredient. However U238 may be used to jacket an H-bomb since a chain reaction isn’t needed there - plenty of neutrons flying around by that time.
Guess I’ll have to return all that U238
A bit more elaboration on point #4: We know that #4 goes far beyond what’s “in” or “out” - there’s a huge environmental component to that item as well. So not only won’t many of the younger want some those houses, many probably can’t even justify their cost/location.
As for #2: Well, we don’t see very many “silver lining” stories anymore, do we? You know the ones, the stories where loanowners tried to rationalize their predicament by opining that their taxes would follow their assessed values downward.
On number 5, some boomers have gotten the idea they might need to save for retirement, limiting their desire to participate in the “move up” market.
Their children will definately get that idea when they see what happens to their parents.
Eh, I picked a house up…
“1. We are at historic interest rate lows.”
I agree with your premise here, but my payment based upon these historic low rates is less than half what equivalent rent on the property would be (lower than rent on my former small apartment even). A 15 year loan was less than my rent, it’s tough not to justify that…
“2. Property taxes will not fall at the same rate at house prices.”
Already seen this, and you’re right. It’s just part of the package, nothing much can be done about it.
“3. Unemployment and under-employment are rising.”
You’re right. I tried to marginalize this worry by purchasing in a relatively affluent neighborhood and city, but there is a real possibility of a unemployment crisis the likes of which america has -never- seen. It’s sortof out of my hands though - it really had no bearing on my decision making process.
“4. The next generation doesn’t want to live in the older generation’s used housing. ”
Agreed. I wouldn’t even look at them - around here they are all built on illegal immigrant labor for the lowest possible expense. They are HORRIFYINGLY under insulated, and essentially made up of sticks and stucco. You can call up the electric company about a house and find out it’s average energy bill - it’s downright SCARY on some of this new construction out here in AZ.
I picked up a quality home built back in the 70’s. Block, low slung, white roof, properly insulated, no giant vaulted rooms and proper climate controlled spaces, even an evap cooler sitting next to it’s A/C unit for the dry months (big savings), it’s built -properly- for a desert setting.
“5. The “baby-boomers” are tapped out and ready to move into the kid’s basements. ”
I’ve come to terms with the likelihood of having to one day house my father and likely my wife’s parents (my grandparents are thankfully fairly well off in the grand scheme of things and shouldn’t need further assistance). It is what it is. Course, can’t get a basement here in AZ, they are a bit rare….
“6. The shadow inventory banks hold would supply the market for the next 50 years.”
Maybe. It is what it is…. I’ve still got to live somewhere :).
“7. The exploded myth that real estate is a great investment or that it “only goes up” will have more fallout than a 20 megaton U238 bomb.”
AZ is a non recourse state, so worst case scenario I’ve still got an out. In the meantime, the house is 2x my wife’s income and the payment is stupid low even compared to local rents, for a home situated among the best schools and neighborhoods in the region. It’s making the best out of the situation, and if it winds up being a bad move, I’ll chalk it up to the best laid plans and walk away none worse for wear.
But yeah, buying a house right now is still probably the wrong move :). I think it was the right step for my family but I wouldn’t go around recommending it to everyone.
1. Common sense is at or near historical lows.
7. The exploded myth that real estate is a great investment or that it “only goes up” ??
Real Estate does not need to go “up” in value 10-cents to be able to be a good investment….
Market Watch Morons: “Why an ARM may beat a fixed-rate mortgage today”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/adjustable-versus-fixed-rate-mortgages-2011-02-16
It may beat the fixed rate “today”. The trouble is with tomorrow.
Affordable payments today, foreclosure tomorrow after interest rates reset at a higher level…
Yee gads - instead of taking out an ARM today, why not just set yourself on fire? MSM advice like that can cripple you for life!
Throw yourself off the nearest bridge?
Play Russian Roullette with 6 rounds?
Good grief.
MSM is owned by just 7 corporations. Fortune 500 corporations.
The comments are really funny. Most don’t agree with the writer.
One read, “Stupid is as stupid does”.
if you plan to move in five years…rent.
there…where can i get my article posted?
First you have to pad that with another 2000 words.
I usually have CNBC on as background noise. Today I was struck by the intelligence of this young guy. Here’s his 15-page investor letter. Well worth reading.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/48881153/Kyle-Bass-Hayman-Investor-Letter-February-2011
Does Debt Matter?
We spend a lot of time thinking about and discussing systemic risk. This is not because we are natural pessimists; rather, we believe that many investors cannot see the forest for the trees as they get caught up in the short-lived euphoria of the markets.
We ask ourselves, and urge you to ask yourself one simple question: Does debt matter? It was excess leverage and credit growth that brought the global economy to its knees. Since 2002, global credit has grown at an annualized rate of approximately 11%, while real GDP has grown approximately 4% over the same time frame - credit growth has outstripped real GDP growth by an astounding 275%. We believe that debt will matter like it has every time since the dawn of financial history. Without a resolution of this global debt burden, systemic risk will fester and grow.
“Since 2002, global credit has grown at an annualized rate of approximately 11%, while real GDP has grown approximately 4% ”
there you have it.
The truth is that all people from anywhere in the World just want freedom and a decent lifestyle above poverty . However, this innate God given desire to improve ones life is distorted because Leaders ,Religious groups , and Money Men want to steal money while they distract the people from their real objectives . It’s all brainwashing . Keep the people in line like cattle
with very little and convince them that some enemy is the culprit .Was Egypt anything but a slavery Country with a small percentage getting the
lions share and pull out the big guns if they get out of line .Corruption is
what rules these Countries and that’s the name of the game .
That being said ,these Countries with population problems can’t ignore
that this factor is reducing opportunity . If a Country /people doesn’t believe in population control ,than poverty is a given . It boils down to people have to be responsible for their own lives if they have democracy
and freedom of choice .
In that America is becoming pretty corrupt itself ,you can’t say that America doesn’t need correction also . The breakdown of economic and political systems is occurring World-wide .However people have become contorted because of whatever Political and economic system their Country had ,if you have freedom you have to have the personal responsibility that goes with it . America is a laughing
stock regarding that concept of personal responsibility lately and stacked decks and policies made with monopolies and self-interest lobbyist controlling the outcome isn’t constructive .Anyway ,I don’t know what’s going to happen ,but these are interesting times to say the least IMHO .
“Keep the people in line like cattle with very little and convince them that some enemy is the culprit .”
The lord/master serf/peasant model is pretty much the norm since the dawn of the human race.
Once you know this, everything else becomes self evident.
Gots to luv dem gubmint run programs…
Medicare spokesman: ‘We’re overpaying’ for medical supplies.
Raleigh, N.C. — If a wheelchair costs $160, why would Medicare pay eight times as much? That’s the question one local woman asked after her elderly father needed a wheelchair to get around.
As a WRAL investigation found, it’s all in the way Congress set up the spending plan.
A wheelchair seemed like a simple purchase for Jeanne Gunter’s 95-year old-father when he moved to assisted living, but she soon learned that Medicare’s payment system is not so simple.
Medicare rents to own equipment, such as wheelchairs. One wheelchair, for example, costs $104 a month for up to 13 months, which is about $1,300 total. Providers must maintain the liability to repair the chair during the 13 months of rental.
“We could’ve bought a wheelchair,” Gunter said. “I looked at a local pharmacy and looked at a wholesale club, and you could easily get one for $150 to $200 comparable to what we have.”
Laurence Wilson, director at Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, said he thinks Medicare is “overpaying substantially for wheelchairs.”
Wilson said he blames medical supply companies and their powerful lobbies for allowing $1,300 wheelchairs. The rent-to-own plan started with the idea that some people only need equipment for a short time. Still, at those wheelchair prices, Medicare only breaks even if a patient needs a wheelchair for a month or two.
Medicare has a rent-to-own policy for most durable medical supplies, such as hospital beds, CPAP machines for sleep apnea and power wheelchairs.
Medicare rents to own equipment, such as wheelchairs. One wheelchair, for example, costs $104 a month for up to 13 months, which is about $1,300 total. Providers must maintain the liability to repair the chair during the 13 months of rental.
And this is the part that galls me.
I used to fix bicycles for a part-time job, and our shop also did wheelchair work. For the most part, it was the same as our bike work. We fixed flat tires. Not exactly rocket science.
Rebuilding wheels? Not that difficult either. Reason: Wheelchair wheels have radial spoke designs, and those are a breeze to work on.
Wheelchairs are the BIGGEST scam.
I have an acquaintance who pays several THOUSAND dollars for his personal wheelchair. (go everywhere ruggedized utility model)
A wheel chair is no more complicated nor costly to make than a bicycle.
A wheel chair is no more complicated nor costly to make than a bicycle.
If wheelchairs had more than one speed, I’d say that you have an argument on the “complicated” part. As for cost, well, the bicycle industry was/is one of the planet’s biggest offshore-ers. Went to China back in the 1990s.
As for cost, well, the bicycle industry was/is one of the planet’s biggest offshore-ers. Went to China back in the 1990s.
I’m very rare here. We have an American made Ritchey and an early 90’s USA made Raleigh bike here in Rio. I take care of them. They are very nice.
Alas, they will most likely never see their home country again.
I know people who have spent thousands on a bicycle.
But they have a choice.
Okay, peeps. I need some advice.
Remember that family friend I was telling you about yesterday? The USMC veteran double amputee who’s now running marathons?
He wants to get into triathlons. Any advice on the bicycle? I’m tempted to recommend a recumbent, just to keep him lower to the ground so his wife won’t worry so much.
A recumbent trike is the way to go.
* “Our only political party has two right wings, one called Republican, the other Democratic. But Henry Adams figured all that out back in the 1890s. ‘We have a single system,’ he wrote, and ‘in that system the only question is the price at which the proletariat is to be bought and sold, the bread and circuses.”
~ Gore Vidal
Last Sept, the Repub successfully blocked a Dem bill that would have ended tax breaks for offshoring jobs. Tax breaks that were then to be given to local businesses for hiring.
I’d said that’s a SUBSTANTIAL difference.
Oh, and Gore Vidal was a loon.
Legitimate question from me (a first!):
Are Fed GDP estimates adjusted for inflation?
The stock market us up today apparently because the Fed just hiked its GDP estimate. Could the falling dollar alone make us more productive on paper? Is this really a good thing?
Not adjusted for inflation.
It would be interesting to see GDP less FedGov spending.
Isn’t that like counting one’s success at the poker table by the number of chips, not the denomination?
An Oldie But A Goodie - “New York Crimes” The Way They Used to Be.
Just got around to reading my September 20, 1899 copy of the New York Times. Here’s some sensational criminality from back then:
“Boy Prisoner’s Daring Escape
Toney Dessino, a fourteen-year-old Italian boy living at 32 Thompson Street, was sentenced yesterday morning to the Catholic Protectorate for stealing a pie. While he was being held in the Gerry society room in the Criminal Courts building, he crawled over the iron bars of a window in the room, jumped thirty-five feet to the pavement in his bare feet, and was off like a deer. The police are looking for him.”
Pies are real energy food!
http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/article/20110216/GPG0101/102160641/Photos-Northeastern-Wisconsin-residents-join-budget-protests
The Democrats’ faithful public service union voting bloc is discovering that the Democrat Wing of the Republicrat Party has no qualms about executing Wall Street’s order to throw these expendables under the bus. Shock! Horror! Awakening!
Looks like the scales are going to be falling from more than a few sheeple’s eyes as this plays out. Getting 10,000 Americans to put down the remote and protest is no minor feat.
Getting 10,000 Americans to put down the remote and protest is no minor feat.
Especially in WI at this time of the year. That’s the state where winter comes to visit, drinks all your beer, eats all your food, then passes out on your sofa and doesn’t wake up for seven months.
Remind me again who blocked ending tax breaks for offshoring jobs?
That would be the GOP wing of the Republicrat Party. The other wing of the same bird of prey.
Fed More Confident in Recovery, Unhappy on Jobs- Reuters
US Federal Reserve officials are increasingly confident of the economic recovery but remain unsatisfied with the healing of the job market, minutes of their January meeting released on Wednesday showed.
Yes, and the Fed has done such an excellent job of prognosticating so far, from “there is no housing bubble” to “the first green shoots of Spring.”
Heed these asshats at your own risk.
“Yes, and the Fed has done such an excellent job of prognosticating so far”
They did a fine job of accuratelyu forecasting that they could succeed in driving up the stock market and commodity prices…
Hundreds of billions in free gambling money makes that a predictable outcome.
They might want to have a little talk with the Repubs about those jobs and tax breaks for offshoring jobs.
No matter how bad you think things are, they could alwys be worse:
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/breakingnews/os-industrial-accident-cuts-penis-law20110216,0,3673264.story
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-isnt-wall-street-in-jail-20110216?page=1
From Matt Taibbi of Rolling Stone:
Why Isn’t Wall Street in Jail?
Financial crooks brought down the world’s economy — but the feds are doing more to protect them than to prosecute them
Over drinks at a bar on a dreary, snowy night in Washington this past month, a former Senate investigator laughed as he polished off his beer.
“Everything’s fucked up, and nobody goes to jail,” he said. “That’s your whole story right there. Hell, you don’t even have to write the rest of it. Just write that.”
I put down my notebook. “Just that?”
“That’s right,” he said, signaling to the waitress for the check. “Everything’s fucked up, and nobody goes to jail. You can end the piece right there.”
Nobody goes to jail. This is the mantra of the financial-crisis era, one that saw virtually every major bank and financial company on Wall Street embroiled in obscene criminal scandals that impoverished millions and collectively destroyed hundreds of billions, in fact, trillions of dollars of the world’s wealth — and nobody went to jail. Nobody, that is, except Bernie Madoff, a flamboyant and pathological celebrity con artist, whose victims happened to be other rich and famous people.
The rest of them, all of them, got off. Not a single executive who ran the companies that cooked up and cashed in on the phony financial boom — an industrywide scam that involved the mass sale of mismarked, fraudulent mortgage-backed securities — has ever been convicted. Their names by now are familiar to even the most casual Middle American news consumer: companies like AIG, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. Most of these firms were directly involved in elaborate fraud and theft. Lehman Brothers hid billions in loans from its investors. Bank of America lied about billions in bonuses. Goldman Sachs failed to tell clients how it put together the born-to-lose toxic mortgage deals it was selling. What’s more, many of these companies had corporate chieftains whose actions cost investors billions — from AIG derivatives chief Joe Cassano, who assured investors they would not lose even “one dollar” just months before his unit imploded, to the $263 million in compensation that former Lehman chief Dick “The Gorilla” Fuld conveniently failed to disclose. Yet not one of them has faced time behind bars.
Instead, federal regulators and prosecutors have let the banks and finance companies that tried to burn the world economy to the ground get off with carefully orchestrated settlements — whitewash jobs that involve the firms paying pathetically small fines without even being required to admit wrongdoing. To add insult to injury, the people who actually committed the crimes almost never pay the fines themselves; banks caught defrauding their shareholders often use shareholder money to foot the tab of justice. “If the allegations in these settlements are true,” says Jed Rakoff, a federal judge in the Southern District of New York, “it’s management buying its way off cheap, from the pockets of their victims.”
Just saw this earlier today.
You have problem with Corporate Communist Capitalism©®™, comrade?
Why Isn’t Wall Street in Jail?
Financial crooks brought down the world’s economy — but the feds are doing more to protect them than to prosecute them
Now you’re just trying to piss me off.
There was an opportunity for Obama, and any politician willing to stick their neck out for the American people, to hammer these pigs into oblivion, clawing back all the money, and sending their rotten asses to prison for the rest of their lives. Instead, Obama got on his knees, and turned into Wall Street’s little whore.
Wall Street owned Obama from the beginning of his George Soros-orchestrated Presidential campaign. Goldman Sachs was his #2 campaign contributer (BP was #1). Brand Obama was a marketing triumph to the credulous hope ‘n change morons. Granted, having “McSame” and his sucubus running mate Sarah Palin as the alternative made the outcome a foregone conclusion in typical “Bad and Worse” fashion, as are all the contrived Republicrat puppet shows called elections. My point is, there was never a time where Obama WASN’T Wall Street’s errand boy. Or McCain/Palin, for that matter.
“Why Isn’t Wall Street in Jail?”
Too big to jail?
The SEC, Wall St., and every large financial institution knew Madoff and Stanford were engaging in illegal activity, but as long as the gravy was good, they couldn’t care less. I want to see prosecutions, and hard time, but we’re getting none of it. I want to see the likes of Lloyd Blankfein, etc., weeping, soiling themselves on death row, convicted of domestic terrorism.
What are you, some kinda dang commie/socialeest?!
I want to see the likes of Lloyd Blankfein, etc., weeping, soiling themselves on death row, convicted of domestic terrorism.
It is very telling that the various champions of “free-markets” don’t press for the same.
Why? Because they are a lie. They are a sham. Their whole ilk is a crock of hypocritical, greedy, self-serving, dirty-dealing, immoral, lying, thieving, traitorous scum from the bottom of the filthy hole of an outhouse.
(but I don’t mean that in a bad way)
Yep Grizzly I want to see the same thing you do .I just can’t get over what those creeps did . It really is domestic terrorism as you said . I guess they expect us to pretend it didn’t happen and all is well and
who cares if there are severe consequences because the idea is they should be saved and allowed to flourish again at the expense of anybody but them . It’s just not acceptable on any level .
I’m not buying into this massive Bernanke liquidity bubble driven “recovery.” The stock market is back to “always going up” like it did prior to the 2008 crash, fuel prices are surging and the highest EVER for this time of year, unemployment remains at eye-popping levels with no sign of waning- government lies notwithstanding, the cost of food is rocketing up, builders have resumed building in markets that are still falling after the brief blip up adding to an already massively bulging supply, foreclosures continue at record levels with housing prices continuing to deteriorate, the Middle East looks ready to explode into revolt which could send oil prices parabolic, banks books are as cooked as they can be with further losses a foregone conclusion due to exposure to bad loans, local governments are broke, and our national debt is out of control. Tell me where the good news is.
Dancing with the stars is having a great season?
Lizzie darling, it’s good to know you have your priorities in order. According to our political and financial elites, that is.
Gary Shilling: “Hard Landing for China, Hard Times for Us”
“Prepare for a worldwide recession.”
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2011/0228/investing-gary-shilling-financial-strategy-hard-times.html
If history is any guide, it will be the hardest on the up and coming exporter (China) than on the Old World importer (USA). Last round we took it the worst. Only the thoughts of others that make some sense to me.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110217/bs_nm/us_financial_regulation_foreclosures
More slaps on the wrist for mega-thieves.