Bits Bucket for March 13, 2011
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Japan aerials before and after:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/japan-quake-2011/beforeafter.htm
Radiation up 400 times in Miyagi, new blast feared at Fukushima
Think you left out the context that the radiation levels were still low:
Meanwhile, radiation monitored at the Onagawa nuclear power plant in Miyagi Prefecture on the Pacific coast shot up on Sunday, Tohoku Electric Power Co. said, adding that it was likely caused by radioactive substances let out at the troubled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant in Fukushima Prefecture.
Radiation levels were very low but about 400 times as high as in normal times, the power supplier said, dismissing the possibility that the Miyagi plant was to blame.
There has never been a better time to buy next to the reactor. You are supposed to buy into panic, isn’t that how it goes?
If Japanese housing prices were already low after two full decades of declines, you have to wonder what the one-two-three punch of earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown will do to them — at least those that are not literally under water now.
Wouldn’t a massive loss of housing units increase the prices on remaining ones due to supply constraints? That said, a nuclear meltdown would certainly render others worthless.
what about a massive loss of life? It could balance it out
Explosion rocks another Japanese nuclear reactor building
By the CNN Wire Staff
March 14, 2011 12:00 a.m. EDT
(CNN) — Fresh white smoke rose again Monday from Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, caused by an explosion at a building tied to the facility’s No. 3 reactor.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said that, according to the head of the nuclear facility, the container vessel surrounding the reactor is still intact. Initial reports suggest that radiation levels rose following the explosion late Monday morning, but Edano said he does not believe there has been a massive leak.
“We are now collecting information on the concentration of radiation,” he said.
A wall of the building collapsed due to the blast, according to Japanese public broadcaster NHK, which showed plumes of smoke above the plant.
The secretary said that water continues to be injected into the plant’s No. 3 reactor. That fact, and the pressure levels, has led authorities to believe that the reactor itself remains intact.
The incident is the latest affecting the Daiichi, the hardest hit of several nuclear plants affected since Friday’s 8.9-magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunami.
Officials said that the explosion was likely caused by a buildup of hydrogen gas, similar to what had happened Saturday at the same nuclear plant’s No. 1 reactor.
…
The Eastern Japanese coast is toast. After seeing these before-and-after images, I have to believe the toll from this quake will far exceed that of the 1906 San Francisco quake, which sent the San Francisco economy into a decade-long swoon.
The problem with some of these disasters is the propensity for public officials to lie in grand fashion, so we don’t know the extent of the loss of life, or property damage.
Truth will out, in due time.
East Coast tsunami threat is not trivial
Posted on March 22, 2010 by Todd B. Bates
It’s “Tsunami Awareness Week,” and don’t think it can’t happen on the East Coast.
It has, according to a National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program handbook.
…
Those images certainly do raise serious questions about the prudence of economic development along coastal plains in the tsunami hazard zone. Seattle city leaders take note of the handwriting on the wall.
We love our waterfront homes so much we require our state ferries to slow down to reduce erosion.
I have walked along many a beach in western WA, and gazed up in awe at homes built on eroding bluffs, which will surely be condemned in due time.
Seawall + 30-foot tsunami = instant waterfall
Japan earthquake: Footage of moment tsunami hit
…
Hunt for survivors in quake carnage
Japan faces a severe crisis, warns Prime Minister Kan
* NAOTO KAN: “This is the toughest crisis for Japan since the Second World War.”
MARTIN WILLIAMS
14 Mar 2011
HUNDREDS of thousands of troops, police and rescue workers were being mobilised yesterday in the hunt for survivors of Japan’s devastating earthquake and tsunami as officials battled to avert a nuclear disaster and care for millions of people without power or water.
As it emerged that more than 10,000 are feared to have died, hundreds of survivors were being pulled from the rubble as an international rescue mission intensified in devastated areas of north-eastern and eastern Japan.
…
Five popular tax breaks on the brink of extinction
From energy savings to college costs, Americans are getting a lot of breaks from Uncle Sam during this tax season. But get them while they last — the good times are about to end. ~ CNNMONEY
It’s tax season. Although keeping tabs on the details of income and expenses can be a little dreadful, filers have plenty to look forward to when Uncle Sam hands out that refund. There are countless deductions to take advantage of to lower your tax burden — and they’re not just for the uber rich. From buying a home to putting your kids in college, taxpayers can deduct or receive credit on many items.
But leverage the opportunities now. Many popular tax breaks are set to either expire or scale back as the government’s stimulus package from 2009 winds down. With the help of the Tax Institute at H&R Block, Fortune lists five tax favored breaks approaching extinction.
Get ‘em while they last.
Pulling demand forward.
I never understood “pulling demand forward”. If you were to incentivize to create current demand, wouldn’t that mean pulling demand back? Forward means creating demand in the future. At least to me.
“Back loading” = later
“Pulling forward” = sooner
Your point is taken; the analogy of “front” and “back” to “earlier” and “later” time periods could be reversed…
Forward = earlier on a time line. Like a queue where the first is the earliest.
The operative word is not “forward”, it is the word “pull”.
If you “pull” something forward then you are bringing it closer to you.
If you “push” something forward then you are pushing it away from you.
Kind of like when you snap a house up and later walk away from it.
Or when a tsunami “pulls” a coastal Japanese home out to sea, rendering it literally and permanently underwater.
Sometimes, your underwater home, 10 miles at sea, can save your life:
“One rare bit of good news was the rescue of a 60-year-old man swept away by the tsunami who clung to the roof of his house for two days until a military vessel spotted him waving a red cloth about 10 miles (15 kilometers) offshore.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110313/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_earthquake
“…your underwater home, 10 miles at sea, can save your life…”
Who’d've thunk an underwater home could be so valuable?
There it is. Thanx all.
Except when you push on a string … -:)
City Says State Is Forcing Cuts to Program for the Homeless ~ NYT
Saying that state budget cuts have forced New York City to stop accepting new people into a successful program intended to reduce homelessness, the city mailed a letter on Thursday to hundreds of real estate brokers involved in the program informing them that no new participants will be taken after next Monday.
The letter from Seth Diamond, the city’s commissioner of homeless services, came after weeks of lobbying by the Bloomberg administration to restore state funding for the program, called Advantage, which provides housing subsidies for people who find stable jobs, allowing them to leave shelters. About 15,000 households now receive money under the program, which was created in 2007 and provides subsidies for up to two years, the city said.
“Due to proposed budget cuts that will eliminate the Advantage rental subsidy program, effective after the close of business Monday, March 14, we will stop conducting lease signings,” Mr. Diamond said in the letter to the brokers, who connect homeless families with the program. Those already in the program will be able to stay in their homes.
“Over 90 percent of those who completed the subsidy period remain in the community and out of shelter,” the letter said. “This funding reduction will cause a significant increase in the city’s shelter population and force the city to build 70 new shelters.”
“the city mailed a letter on Thursday to hundreds of real estate brokers involved in the program”
Involved as in being homeless and receiving benefits?
Kicked BACK to the curb.
Lovely.
Japan quake-tsunami death toll likely over 10,000- AP
The death toll in Japan’s earthquake and tsunami will likely exceed 10,000 in one state alone, an official said Sunday, as millions of survivors were left without drinking water, electricity and proper food along the pulverized northeastern coast.
The rather obvious question at this point is not whether the death toll will top 10,000, but whether it will remain below 100,000.
I tried to tell a guy in church this morning that I fully expect it to be over 100k before it’s all over. He thought I was being wildly pessimistic. Wish I was. A lady in our congregation is from Japan. Her immediate family is OK but they’re hearing bad stories from more distant friends and relations farther north.
One of the problems was that they were expecting a 16 footer, not a 30 footer.
Another was lack of enough time.
Japan’s nuclear crisis widens
As a second blast shakes nuclear plant, officials say the death toll from the earthquake and tsunami could reach tens of thousands. Power is rationed and rescue teams pour in.
By Mark Magnier, Barbara Demick and Laura King, Los Angeles Times
March 13, 2011, 9:52 p.m.
Reporting from Sendai, Japan, and Tokyo
A fresh explosion rocked a crippled nuclear complex as rescuers from around the world converged on Japan’s devastated earthquake zone, searching for survivors and ministering to the sick and hungry. With the death toll from the largest quake in Japan’s recorded history expected to ultimately reach the tens of thousands, more than a half-million people have been displaced by growing radiation fears and the massive swath of destruction.
…
Major changes ahead for mortgage system as U.S. seeks to scale back role in housing. ~ The Washington Post
These changes could significantly raise the down payments demanded by lenders, curtail the availability of long-term mortgages with fixed interest rates, and increase the cost of borrowing in general.
The government’s effort to scale back its role in housing could show up in small ways soon. In April, the Federal Housing Administration plans to raise the annual premium it charges borrowers by a quarter of a percentage point. In October, the maximum size of loans that the federal government backs is scheduled to drop to $625,500 from $729,750. The most dramatic proposal - eliminating mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - could take five to seven years.
In theory an excellent idea even10 years ago…bur lets be realistic today unless you live at poverty levels for years and bank then difference how else is someone supposed to save even $25,000 for a down payment?
These changes could significantly raise the down payments demanded by lenders
Precisely why raising down payment requirements will bring prices down. Houses are still too expensive.
Higher mortgage rates will have a similar effect in “pulling” down home prices.
ben is way to dovish to let rates rise.
“…to let rates rise.”
You seem to assume the Fed has complete control over interest rates.
It doesn’t.
They have printing press and the FED will buy as many treasuries as it can to keep rates low so housing recovers and primary dealers have more cashola to throw at stock market casino.
No I agree they dont have total control but remember the old saying:
DONT FIGHT THE FED
“No I agree they dont have total control but remember the old saying:
DONT FIGHT THE FED”
I guess Bill Gross never heard that saying?
THE FED HAS DEEP POCKETS. QE WILL NOT END TILL REAL ESTATE IS RISING AGAIN. YOU HEARD IT HEAR FIRST.BUY THE DIPS.
What does poverty level mean? Living frugally doesn’t have to translate to poverty. What it does mean is young adults lowering their expectations from the lifestyle they enjoyed when they were living with middle aged (or older) parents. Back in the day, you got used to that in college where the facilities were crowded and shared and even a little bit of privacy was unusual. Now the colleges aren’t providing that training anymore.
Poverty is when you wear a hat to bed because the room is going to be cold enough to need it in the morning since you turn off the heat overnight (yes, I’ve been there). It isn’t only going out once a month, not every weekend, because you are saving up a downpayment.
I have been turning off the heat at night all winter.I dont mind being a little chilly.PG&E puts the screws to you if you use more than 2 therms a day.If you go over you go into next tier.
A therm is about 100 cubic feet of natural gas.We use about 2 therms a day here so 200 cubic feet for 2300 sq ft.
It’s meaningless until you convert to BTU’s.
My apartment got to under 50 degrees early in the morning while I was doing this. The heat was electric and it was expensive, and I was living on savings only, so when I had the ability to keep warm with blankets, I turned off the heat. Not easy in January in New Jersey.
I’m saying you don’t have to go that far to save up a downpayment. But if you are just starting out, you do have to give up the higher living standards that your parents have acquired over a few decades.
“It’s meaningless until you convert to BTU’s.”
Isn’t a therm just 100K BTU?
Polly
The basic cost of living is too high to effectively save a lot of $$$
Unless you mean frugally without internet i-phones sharing a apartment, no cars, a simple pay as you go phone, live on a bus line, use the libraries computers..
But for a big chunk of America instant connectivity has become a part of our jobs or getting them.
Are you serious? Maybe I’m getting old, but my impression is that it was only a few years ago that cell phones were only used by a small number of rich people and most people used dialup to connect to the internet for $20/month. If you happened to be out and about and you realized that you needed to call someone, there were these things called pay phones.
Now many people consider a smart phone to be a necessity and, for that and other reasons, it’s impossible to save even a few thousand dollars a year. It doesn’t make sense, trust me.
When I was young and living in the NY metro area I found it very difficult to deal with the cost of living there.
I remedied the situation by moving to an area of the country that was more affordable.
“If you happened to be out and about and you realized that you needed to call someone, there were these things called pay phones.”
I remember those days. Have you tried to find a pay phone lately? Pay phone rates also skyrocketed. A pay as you go plan makes a lot of sense these days. So much so, that the local beggarman has a cell phone. You can have pay as you go for as little as $10/month if you are careful how you use it.
Some folks still have dial up. There are rural areas within commuting distance of Seattle that have no high speed internet service.
“save even a few thousand dollars a year”
I like to save as much as the next guy, but having no home phone ($40/mo?) and a smart phone bill of $80/mo is “only” $480. It’s some money, sure, but not thousands of dollars.
“What does poverty level mean? ”
Ketchup sandwiches
Poverty means going to bed hungry.
“Ketchup sandwiches”
I thought poverty was a jam sandwich. You take two pieces of bread, and you jam them together.
Ketchup you mix with warm water to make tomato soup.
“Poverty means going to bed hungry.”
And just short of going to bed hungry is where conservatives want to bring this country.
please stop pitting the conservatives against the liberals, the repubs against the dems, the socialists against the capitalists etc … they are all part of our problems - though some more than others
Poverty does indeed mean poverty.
It means to poor to even be frugal.
Polly,
You make good point about the colleges not doing their part. The dormitory that I lived in at my college in the early 1980s was built around 1920. It looked great from the outside, but for some reason there were exposed pipes visible up by the ceiling in the hallways. That was just the way that the plumbing was set up when the dorm was built. It wasn’t pretty to look at, but when you’re 18-22 years old, you don’t care.
For some reason, the university decided to gut the whole interior of the builing in the mid-1990s. When I heard about it a few years later, I tried to find out why by reading archived issues of the student newspaper over the internet. I never really found a good justification.
Just a few years ago, before the recession, I read an article about a liberal arts college in New England that had decided to improve the offerings at its cafeterias. There was even a photograph of some dish made with mussels that looked like it was from some expensive restaurant.
For decades, bad cafeteria food was part of underdraduate life. My guess is that college’s motive was to increase the number of undergraduate applicants so that it could move up to a higher position in the US News rankings.
“In October, the maximum size of loans that the federal government backs is scheduled to drop to $625,500 from $729,750.”
I can’t help but wonder whether at that point, the billboards in front of new housing developments around San Diego will cross off the dollar figure in ;From the $700s’ and replace it with ‘$600s.’
Still seems awfully expensive for a home to me.I guess they arent making any more land in s. ca.
I thought everyone was rich,rich,rich in “the” O.C. why not just raise taxes to save these jobs?
O.C. schools may slash 1,429 jobs
THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
Orange County’s school districts plan to slash at least $129 million in spending and 1,429 jobs next year if the state can’t avoid $2.3 billion in new cuts.
But the 2011-12 cuts would have been significantly worse if not for $96 million local districts received under a federal education jobs bill passed in August. The stimulus funds may have saved, at least for one year, more than 1,000 school jobs in Orange County, officials estimate.
“School districts are in a dire situation right now,” said county schools Superintendent William Habermehl. “They got a reprieve with this jobs bill, but it’s only a Band-Aid. There is still a cloud hanging out there for everyone.”
But isn’t this a good thing? People yap all day for local control, well YOU GOT IT.
Maybe its time to use this internet thingy for a real social purpose…
If people cant attend city council school board meetings etc. well why not broadcast the meetings live on this internet and have people sign up for their 3 minutes via their webcam and allow internet voting?
Oh yea we also notice that no administrator loses their jobs
have the housewives of OC lost anymore homes to foreclosure lately?
Soon.
* March 9, 2011, 4:57 PM ET
The Real Orange County Drama? Real Estate
By Dawn Wotapka
Forget men, shopping and plastic surgery. The true Orange County drama remains real estate.
Peggy Tanous, the newest member of the “Real Housewives of Orange County” reality show received notice that her home could be sold at a foreclosure auction later this month, the Orange County Register reports.
We previously reported that Tanous defaulted on the Irvine, Calif., house purchased in 2006 for $1.38 million. She owes $1,318,253- an amount likely growing because of late fees and other penalties-as of the recent foreclosure notice, according to the Register. The auction is set for March 17, so keep an eye on Developments.
…
priceless lmao
“Real Housewives of Orange County”
What kind of people watch this trash?
“What kind of people watch this trash?”
I know that’s a rhetorical question, but you would be surprised at who does. People you would think were otherwise intelligent.
I think these kind of shows have the fascination of a train wreck. I have occasionally stumbled across one while channel surfing - Basketball Wives, I think. I was amazed that anyone would want to be petty and mean on camera, but I guess if it pays well enough, somebody will go for it.
Oh yea we also notice that no administrator loses their jobs
Hwy’s posted about the Principal that went from Beverly Hills to Newport Beach, gave his sexretary $$$ perks & later a 20 million construction contract.
But isn’t this a good thing? People yap all day for local control, well YOU GOT IT.
Well the Billionaire / multi-millionaire’s in Newport Beach pretty much do. Ifin’ they were allowed to keep ALL their property tax money for their city all by itself, then they would have quite the high salary staff & million dollar elementary school facilities. So, the Socialist State of CA grabs/pools all the money for somewhat “equal distribution” to all children in the State. Pretty dumb idea, trying to make things somewhat equal for all,…but that’s the way it is in America that doesn’t implement ALL the brilliant “TrueAnger™” + “TrueI’m62+Iwon’tlet you get7centsfromme™” all-about-me-me-me ideas
Japan Plans Spending Package as Quake Slams World’s Most Indebted Economy(AP)
Japan aims to compile a package to fund the rebuilding effort after its strongest earthquake on record, a step that may worsen the challenge of reining in the world’s biggest public debt.
How’s that Keynesian thing working out for you?
Looks like a great time to cart out the Broken Window theory of economic stimulus, no?
“In short, he would have employed his six francs in some way, which this accident has prevented.”
So, the people of Japan foolishly are going to spend > 6 Yen replacing something seen but “useless”: Energy generation?
Therefore, they should be wise and just look at all the destruction and be gleeful that they can now implement their “collected” yen on something more “useful” or nothing at all, save the lining of their pockets.
Where did I go wrong Mr. Bear…
Here it is in this report: “The rebuilding will be good for the Japanese economy…”
Markets Hub: Markets Roiled By Earthquake
3/11/2011 11:00:44 AM
Markets are reacting to the massive Japanese earthquake in mixed fashion, with stocks under some pressure while some markets are already factoring in reconstruction. Kathleen Madigan and Paul Vigna report.
Unreal…
How hard is it to plan rampant spending? And why is it always a “package”? Most of us are so good at spending we don’t ever have to even plan it.
ben bernanke is a genius.
… who replaced a maestro.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2014477180_japanbiz13.html
“Whether the economic damage is short-lived or longer-term remains to be seen. In recent years, power struggles and political scandals, not to mention prolonged economic stagnation, have weakened the world’s third largest economy.
“Japan has been adrift, politically and economically,” said Marie Anchordoguy, a professor at University of Washington’s Jackson School of International Studies. “I think, psychologically, people have lost confidence in the Japanese leadership’s capacity to get out of this mess.”
Power struggles - can we learn from Japan’s mistakes? I would really love to see Republicans and Democrats working together to solve our problems instead of playing politics with each other.
spring, market here in MA is dead, dead, dead….
of course the local rags (like every year) are posting articles about bidding wars, shortages of inventory, a future with endless demand and of course higher home values….
Buy now… or be priced out FOREVER!!
Sell now — or be priced in FOREVER!!
Rent now and enjoy life!
Feels the same around our area as well.
Sure, well-priced homes in good locations will attract a lot of qualified buyers and sell quickly with multiple offers. What the MSM aren’t talking about is all the other houses that are just sitting there, overpriced.
IMHO, this appears to be a very slow spring selling season, unlike all the other years, even during the downturn when all the “investors” were buzzing about.
CA renter, where are you?
East Ventura County (So Ca)- The home we almost bought is down $40K, now $424K. According to public records, the neighbor’s house was purchased for $276K in 2002. Our former prospect is worth $350K tops on a good day.
North Coastal San Diego.
You and I are looking for the same general thing (single-story, decent neighborhood, toe-tag house, 0% LTV), and you and I grew up in the same general area (Valley natives, here), so it’s fun to follow what you’re seeing as, well.
Ca Renter
Well, I’ll be darn. It is a small world. I went to U-San Diego’s ICSC Shopping Ctr Mgmt School (80’s).
“0%LTV”-I like that.
95050-95054…..Inventory is holding steady for about three months now…We are about 35% below what we were 6 months ago…The quality homes (condition & Location) still go quickly and not very far off the peak of 2008 (maybe 5-10%)…The homes in poor condition, poor location, short sales & foreclosures linger and prices are 30% off the peak for SFR’s and even more for condo’s…Its a disconnect in some ways…Area’s of real strength along with area’s of real weakness…
Sounds very much like our market — bifurcated.
I’m seeing one to five houses a day come on the market in my town and in my neighboring town. Although expected (seasonally-speaking), this is a noteworthy increase over the past few months. Well priced houses on the low end are selling within six months or so (I’m seeing my share of flips), but its a lot slower for houses priced in the middle and upper end.
No open houses of interest for me this weekend. Anyone else visiting opens?
I’m done dicking around until the fall. I refuse to compete with idiots. Besides, I’d likely go to jail for choking a lying realtor.
exeter
Would you like a few UHS to practice on? LOL
Only with a get out of jail free card.
LOL. I’ll turn on the printing press and get going. I get sick of the lying through omission, too.
I’m kicking tires at open houses.
I’m noticing all the vacant new CRE and laughing.
Im seeing that too.seems like a lot of pizza joint are sprouting up.
must be some bucks in pizza.
Should read: Thousands of “whiners” with nothing better to do gather to protest.
Thousands gather to protest budget cuts
The State News - Local / Metro Sunday, Mar. 13, 2011
Paul Odom drove 130 miles to Columbia on Saturday, paid $15 for a “Get EER Done” T-shirt and held two signs, one in each hand, high over his head for roughly 2,000 people to read: “Stop the Cuts.”
Odom isn’t a teacher. He isn’t married to one, and he is not the son of one, either. But he is the father of three children who went to public schools and graduated from college (Duke, Erskine and USC).
rally
“Everybody needs to be in this together,” he said. “The folks who make the most money should, in my eyes, pay their fair share.”
After two years of listening to the country’s conservative corps railing that they were “taxed enough already,” Saturday was a chance for the state’s more liberal-minded to rally for taxes, and the things they pay for. The urgency? On Monday, state lawmakers will begin deliberating a budget that must be cut by $800 million.
Two years ago, South Carolina had $1 billion in federal stimulus money. Today it has $0. But a lot of the things those stimulus dollars helped pay for are still here, such as the state-run Medicaid program and public schools and universities.
The state is scheduled to spend $800 million more than it has. Lawmakers could raise taxes, as the state-appointed Tax Realignment Commission recommended, or they could spend less. The Republican-controlled Legislature appears poised to choose the latter.
Wmbz:
This is a bizarre twist on protesting in America…
These people are protesting in favor of the status quo…
And SC does have low taxes but then they don’t value edumakation too much either..
Oh it’s happening at every capitol. The schools especially are good at busing in their model students and parents to plead against the cuts.
I’ve come to the conclusion that *nothing* can be cut. Every single dollar spent has its constituency.
Lawmakers could raise taxes, as the state-appointed Tax Realignment Commission recommended, or they could
spend lessexacerbate the problem by selling off state-owned assets to the governor’s campaign supporters at no-bid pricing, while screeching that those damned commie unions are the real problem. The Republican-controlled Legislature appears poised to choose the latter.Fixed it for you
or they could
spend lessexacerbate the problem by selling off state-owned assets to the governor’s campaign supporters at no-bid pricing,Needs clarity:
or they could
spend lessexacerbate the problem by selling off “Worthless” state-owned assets/crap that will never be of any financial value or profit to the governor’s campaign supporters at no-bid pricing.Call me grasshopper!
Hwy, you /did/ mean the kind of “worthless” assets like those parking meters in Chicago, right? In that case it’s a good thing mayor Daley sold them off to a Goldman outfit that raised the rates 4x and is deriving much profit therefrom. That’s the sort of tinkle-down economics we can all see.
Surely it would be (gasp!) socialeeezm to refuse to sell, say, UW’s central heating system to some Koch Bros outfit that would then quadruple the rates charged to UW so that it could derive profits, right?
Naw, I mean the all the “worthless” assets they need to no-bid on so that they can pour their own wealth into and then return/tax-write-off them back to the public as an act of “corporate” welfare…It’s a habit with them, they enjoy it, something to do with “civic benevolence”.
” graduated from college (Duke, Erskine and USC).”
So what does that mean? Three degrees (BS,MS,Phd)? If he is that loaded with paper surely he is drawing down a terrific salary and should be a big contributor.
BS, More of the Same, Pile it higher and Deeper…
I think those were the schools his 3 kids graduated from.
Bill in Carolina, in answer to your question about the Asheville/Greenville area, I still haven’t gotten up there yet, but I hope to do so this summer, if things slow down for me. It’s definitely an option, and I’ve been looking online at potential rental properties, even contacted someone about a property near Lake Lure. Must’ve been some snow up there over the winter, a lot of the photos I’ve looked at show traces of the white stuff on the ground.
Lake Lure is a pretty area, but it’s very much in the boonies. Asheville is over 20 miles away. Hendersonville is closer but it’s just a town, with a population of less than 15,000. The ski areas in North Carolina start just 30 miles north of Lake Lure. Asheville and Lake Lure get a lot more winter snow and sub-freezing weather than Greenville.
Southwest Airlines now serves Greenville. Yay!
Does GSO = hip, urban, edgy?
Trendy??
Gentrified???
Probably more like: Piedmont
LOL! Greenville will never be accused of being any of those adjectives. Greenville’s civic pride slogan is, “We’re not Spartanburg.”
But, the area suits us just fine.
What do people think of this article from Mary Meeker:
http://www.kpcb.com/usainc/USA_Inc.pdf
Analysis of US Economy.
This is a 266 page pdf document. From the forward:
“It includes a 2-page foreword; a 12-page text summary;
and 460 PowerPoint slides containing data-rich observations. There’s a lot of material – think of it as a book that happens to be a slide presentation.”
A summary of the report:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_10/b4218000828880.htm
Sorry about the repost, didn’t seem to go through the first time.
Analysis of US Economy by ‘the’ Mary Meeker.
http://www.kpcb.com/usainc/USA_Inc.pdf
What do people on this forum think about it?
I think the hundreds of pages can be explained by one quote:
“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.”
— Alexis de Tocqueville (Democracy in America)
What is this “bribing” you speak of? Where is my bailout?
They do not have to bribe everyone just enough people to get elected. Apparently, you and I have the job of paying for the bribes.
The bribes are allocated to provide the most votes and campaign contributions for the buck.
“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.”
–Alexis de Tocqueville (Democracy in America)
Bzzzt! No good! From wikipedia:
The earliest known appearance of this quote was December 9, 1951, in what appears to be an op-ed piece in The Daily Oklahoman under the byline Elmer T. Peterson.
Good catch, alpha. My own BS detector is a little slow today due to allergies. Some knowledge of history should make people realize that there wasn’t much that could be called “welfare” back in Tocqueville’s day, making it highly unlikely that he would have said something like that.
Or course, even 200 years ago there probably were a small number of well-connected business people who were able to buy land from the government for less than its market value or get away with selling cannons to the army that didn’t work, but you wouldn’t call people like that “the public”.
Please print link your source since that quote appears in hundreds of other links.
Perhaps we are splitting hairs and the alternative is contained here: http://acta.us/growls/2008/10/the_wisdom_of_alexis_de_tocque.html
The main point is that is entirely consistent with what happen in the Roman Republic and this history would have been well known by him.
Another link supporting it and I think I found your link but I amnot sure if he was talking about the particular variation. http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/465.Alexis_de_Tocqueville
With all translations words can differ but the thought and fear is consistent with his work.
Here is a link to bread and circuses which explains the history not only he would have known but the founding fathers:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bread_and_circuses
I notice you can’t find a source that can attribute the quote to any particular work of de Tocqueville.
Maybe he tweeted it?
Actually, I did the good reads cite and there are hundreds that say he did. We can only be sure by reading the book American Democracy which is where the hundreds of sources say he did say it or something very similar.
Additionally, the founding fathers were very scared of exactly what he probably stated around 50 years later. That is why our democracy started out with only people owning property being able to vote, to avoid the Roman Republic problem.
If you don’t like the good reads cite that I gave above, how about page 2 of this one: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/a/alexis_de_tocqueville_2.html
BTW, I notice you do not attack the wisdom of the quote. You know that even it was only uttered 60 years ago it has predicted our present situation.
Heh-heh. I like you abqdan- you make me laugh.
Good reads cite (?) and brainyquotes are indeed formidable sources, as are ‘ hundreds of others’ (especially since it’s a libertarian favorite- despite being a fallacious quote), but it’s
not up to me to prove a negative- you show me the source of your ‘brainy’ quote. The actual work by Tocqueville.
You know that even it was only uttered 60 years ago it has predicted our present situation.
Oops. I didn’t notice you admitted I was right.
And no, I don’t admit your point. This debacle was brought on by deregulated financial firms. Or was it just an amazing coincidence?
Just wanted to say how much I love this blog. There is always so much to learn from the wide variety of people and backgrounds here.
Thanks to oxide for the explanations regarding the nuclear plants yesterday. As often happens on the HBB, these posts sent me off in search of more information, and I found myself spending way too much time on different sites learning about nuclear power. Loved it!
Thank you, oxide (and all the others)…and a big thanks to Ben for giving us the wonderful gift of this blog.
Hear here! x3 Cheers!
Ben Jones = American “TruePatriot™” + “TrueTruthSlayerEnabler™”
In response to Polly’s post yesterday:
Comment by polly
2011-03-12 05:57:26
Good discussion. You also have to remember that public pensions (and public and non-profit finance in general) used to be consideded a totally separate thing than private finance. The former had different standards, was supposed to be dull and boring and was just expected to not make anyone that much money. Safe, but not so exciting.
And then finance changed.
—————————-
You hit the nail on the head, Polly.
I’m sure you probably know this already, but the “old, boring pension funds” had to get into hedge funds and other “non-traditional” investments in a big way. As one would expect, there was corruption involved, too.
—————–
It’s no surprise that eight of the nine investments worth $4.8 billion cited in a state lawsuit this month were in Leon Black’s Apollo funds, previously known to have paid a former CalPERS board member more than $40 million in “placement agent” fees.
……
A placement agent agreement with the firm of former California Public Employees Retirement System board member Al Villalobos was not signed until seven months after CalPERS invested $400 million in Parsky’s Aurora Resurgence Fund.
The lawsuit said CalPERS invested $400 million in Aurora Resurgence on or about Sept. 10, 2007. Aurora paid Villalobos $1 million on Jan. 1, 2008, the first of four $1 million payments due in January over a four-year period, totaling $4 million.
The lawsuit said the placement agent agreement between Aurora and Villalobos “was dated April 25, 2008, seven months after CalPERS made the solicited investment.”
Voluntary disclosure forms collected by CalPERS from private equity firms and released last January show that Parsky signed a 10-page letter from the Villalobos firm, Arvco, to Aurora to “confirm the agreement” between the two.
http://calpensions.com/2010/05/17/calpers-corruption-private-equity-pays/
==================
IMHO, the Federal Reserve is 90% responsible for this debacle because they have artificially suppressed rates for far too long, forcing more risk-averse investors into risky financial adventures.
This is why I get so upset about those who blame the rank-and-file union members. They had **nothing at all** to do with this.
Didn’t the rank and file buy into the fantasy that their pension fund was going to grow at 8% forever, invested in stock market bubbles and real estate? Wasn’t it all an illusion? Not only the FBs were going to get rich by buying, also those who with pension funds? This was all well underway even before the FED lowered interest rates in an attempt to keep the national game going.
“Didn’t the rank and file buy into the fantasy that their pension fund was going to grow at 8% forever…?”
This fantasy was not limited to public pensions funds. The corporation I work for USED TO HAVE an over-funded pension plan, now the pension plan is underfunded, all because the magic eight-percent-plus returns that they projected (surprisingly!) did not happen.
Oooops.
Because they were legally given the opportunity to anticipate eight-percent-plus returns they did not stuff more money into their pension plan, hence their earnings got a positive hit due to the dwindled pension expense.
Sooo … the money is not there but the pensioners are. And there are a lot of them. And the company wants to keep increasing dividends every year.
Something has got to give. And that something is going to be …
“The corporation I work for USED TO HAVE an over-funded pension plan, now the pension plan is underfunded,…”
Corporate pension scam numero uno:
- Invest in highly pro-cyclical assets which eliminate the need to ever make a pension contribution during boom times, drastically reducing the drain of the pension plan on corporate manager pay.
- When the pension fund declines by a “larger-than-expected” amount during the bust, either terminate the plan and pay off the employees at the present value of accrued benefits (which is much lower than the projected benefit liability on which plan funding was based), or else dump the plan on the PBGC.
There it is.
I (try to) talk with my fellow employees - especially the ones chomping at the bit to retire - but they don’t seem to “get it”.
What they do seem to get is the promises of ten-percent-plus returns offered by some of these retirement seminar sharks that are circling about us oldsters. What the sharks want the potential retirees to do is:
1. Cash out their pension annuity and turn all that money over to them.
2. Cash out their 401Ks and turn THAT money over to them.
3. Transfer any IRA or ROTH money they may have over to them.
In return they will get a night of dining and dancing and a big wet kiss along with and endless amount of screwing.
“Didn’t the rank and file buy into the fantasy that their pension fund was going to grow at 8% forever,…”
I doubt the average member of the rank and file gave this a moment’s thought. Pension fund managers and actuaries, on the other hand, seemed fully invested in the 8% forever scenario.
Fortunately in the case of government pensions the 8% rate of return is guaranteed by law, which in effect means the public now holds a debt at 8% APR… Might have been cheaper to put it on a credit card.
I guess we are lucky a rate of ONLY 8% was assumed or we could be on the line for much much more…
Seems the corporate scam extended to all pensions. The private sector lacks hero status and well connected unions and thus is not protected by law.
I am amazed how many people have no problem with the middle class being ripped off unless that middle class person works for a government agency of some kind. Almost everyone I know had their “trusty” 401k raided in the crash.
government pensions the 8% rate of return is guaranteed by law ??
Exactly…Its surreal…
“government pensions the 8% rate of return is guaranteed by law ”
Link?
“government pensions the 8% rate of return is guaranteed by law ”
Link?
This is, unfortunately, a prevalent trend on the HBB.
Poster 1: “Govt does outrageous blah blah wasteful blah blah blah…”
Poster 2: “Unreal.”
Poster 3: “Ditto.”
No links need ever be posted to b!tch and moan about the govt.
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-03-13 09:42:26
“Didn’t the rank and file buy into the fantasy that their pension fund was going to grow at 8% forever,…”
I doubt the average member of the rank and file gave this a moment’s thought. Pension fund managers and actuaries, on the other hand, seemed fully invested in the 8% forever scenario.
————————
Exactly. My guess is that you could poll 100 govt union workers and maybe 2-5 of them would even know what you’re talking about. All they knew is that their pensions “were guaranteed.”
The rank and file really didn’t get a choice and most I’ve talked to didn’t want it. The administrators crammed it down their throat.
The rank and file knew it was a con from the very beginning and knew who were going to profit from the change.
BS is no BS !!
I would like to point out that a few very, very courageous people working at these funds (people who were willing to get fired) could have demanded an analysis of these instruments under alternative assumptions - like real estate going down - and at least pointed out the problem earlier. I don’t think they could have done anything meaningful, because the bonds were geographically diversified and real estate across the entire country hadn’t gone down before, so if they had stood up and said that using investments that ACTUALLY met their safety requirements (not just rating agency safety) they could only get 2 or 3% returns, the legislature would have overruled them.
No elected official wants to look at every one else making “safe” money hand over fist while your own people preach about how they are right and everyone else is wrong about the fact that it really isn’t safe. And the elected officials don’t really understand it. And not believing it allowed them to spend a lot of money that didn’t need to be used to properly fund state pension funds. So it is hardly surprising that all this happened.
Where I blame officials isn’t in knowing the bubble was happening. I wish they had figured it out, but a lot of them didn’t. Where I really blame them, is in not addressing things right after it burst. Because at that point it should have been obvious that the party wasn’t coming back. A party caused by $35K a year strawberry pickers buying $700K houses can’t come back. They could have demanded flexibility in the fed stimulus money to let them use the support time to adjust, but they didn’t.
And I don’t blame unions for being similarly duped and taking the benefits that were offered to them (because at the time, people didn’t think it would cost the state anything). Should they have known that the new benefits wouldn’t work long term because they were baed on “safe” returns that couldn’t possibly happen long term? Would have been nice, but hardly their specialty.
Wall street of course are the ones that really should have known. You can’t expect loans with no underwriting to behave like loans with substantial underwriting forever. And they knew about the underlying issues with the underwriting. They knew. It was their job to know. And they didn’t care. There was money to be made.
“Wall street of course are the ones that really should have known.”
The question does not seem to be so much whether they should have known, but rather whether they would have made more money by appearing to know, instead of claiming that ‘no one could have seen it coming.’
“They knew. It was their job to know. And they didn’t care. There was money to be made.”
Damn right they knew! It’s why they changed the bankruptcy laws.
And they knew about the underlying issues with the underwriting. They knew. It was their job to know. And they didn’t care. There was money to be made.
Bingda, Bangda, BOOM!
And they didn’t care.
And they didn’t care.
And they didn’t care.
And they didn’t care.
And they didn’t care.
And they didn’t care.
And THEY_STILL_DON”T_CARE!
Thank you, Polly.
Lou Dobbs is back on Fox Channel now with Neil Cavuto and would partner on the Cavuto show.
I thought he retired?
Did he finally out himself as a Retardican?
I woke up at 5:30a this morning, according to my alarm clock (actually 6:30a), mulling over the various major news stories to break so far this year reporting political, financial and natural disasters. I know that sh!t always happens, but is it happening faster than usual this year?
Naturally, with spring only a week or so away, I began to wonder about the implications of this recent tsunami of bad news for the upcoming red hot spring sales season. Do news stories reporting blood in the streets and broke-back government budgets put people into the mood for snapping up houses?
Doctors say husband told Giffords she was shot
Congresswoman doesn’t recall tragedy in Tucson that wounded 13, killed 6
Selloff Worries Cloud Egyptian Market’s Reopening
LIBYA: Al Jazeera cameraman mourned as journalists continue to be targeted
100,000 protest at Wisconsin labour bill
US Congress aims to avoid March 18 federal shutdown
A five-year extension of the sales, personal income and vehicle taxes enacted two years ago is the cornerstone of Brown’s plan to close California’s $26.6 billion deficit.
US’s Geithner: can’t stall forever on Fannie, Freddie
Geithner: Don’t be too hasty in reforming housing
ECONOMY: Trucking activity drops in California as fuel prices begin rising
Double-digit jobless rate staying
Forecast: California won’t see unemployment rate below 10% until 2013
World’s largest bond fund dumps American bonds
Get ready for the price of everything to go up
State of emergency at Japan’s second nuclear plant: IAEA
“I woke up at 5:30a this morning, according to my alarm clock (actually 6:30a)”
Somebody said it was Daylight Savings Time.
“Daylight Savings Time”? Ha!
I give it 6 months.
For the life of me I don’t understand why they moved it up this early in the year. It was fine end of March or early April. Now it will be dark in the mornings again. I used to be able to get in a morning bike ride before work before this latest change.
Why even change the clocks?
does anybody really know what time it is?
I’d rather have a longer evening light in June than have it start to get light out at 4 am like it does in the UK. Other than that, it doesn’t matter to me if it just stayed MST year-round.
“does anybody really know what time it is?”
Does anybody really care? That would have stayed with me all day, but luckily I’m off to bed and that tune won’t plague me too long…
Funny. My DH and I were celebrating the “longer” days as we were bike riding and playing basketball with our kids this evening.
What are you doing setting an alarm on the weekend?!
Honestly I did not have my alarm set, but the dad next door blacked out with a migraine at 4:30am, and my wife was called on to pinch hit as majordomo and nanny for three small children until the guy’s MIL showed up.
Wow. I hope your neighbor is okay. That’s distressing, especially when one has young children.
This point feels much like the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, except for one big difference: The initial media reaction to Katrina’s passage was one of relief, as it veered to the east of New Orleans, narrowly avoiding a direct hit. It was not until a day or so later that the severity of the flooding came to light.
By contrast, it is hard to miss the magnitude of the Japanese disaster with readily available Youtube footage of an exploding nuclear power plant and city streets instantaneously turned into river channels.
After the earthquake
The tension mounts
Mar 13th 2011, 13:36 by H.T. and K.N.C. | TOKYO
THE risk of a nuclear accident at a huge power plant in disaster-strewn north-eastern Japan has risen for a second day on March 13th. This time it involves a type of fuel known as Mox (mixed-oxide) that is considered highly experimental. The government, which is under huge pressure to deal with the tragedy created by Friday’s earthquake, is also struggling to prevent panic over the potential meltdown of a second nuclear reactor. With what looked like tears in his eyes, Naoto Kan, the prime minister, said today that Japan was facing its worst crisis since the second world war and he urged its citizens to pull together.
…
The MOX fuel is tied into recycling nuclear weapons to civilian use. But there is still no evidence that the container vessels are not doing there jobs. Also, after two days these reactors have cooled considerably which is making the needed outside cooling much less. The headline of the article makes it quite suspect since they seem to think that the same type of accident can happen at BWR as a graphite cooled reactor. I think Oxide explained,well. why that cannot happen.
Good the Japanese were sufficiently prudent to not use graphite. I read a paper on the topic of graphite-cooled reactors decades ago — I think I was in high school, a decade or so before Chernobyl. I remember thinking at the time that this seemed like a good recipe for a future nuclear disaster.
I am still stuck on the idea of designing these reactors so as to allow the fuel rods to be quickly and automatically yanked out if there is ever a need to do so.
Taking away the fuel takes away the source of energy, the source of heat. I don’t know it this is a no-brainer of an idea to anyone else but it is a no-brainer to me.
“I am still stuck on the idea of designing these reactors so as to allow the fuel rods to be quickly and automatically yanked out if there is ever a need to do so.”
It seems like a no-brainer to design fail-safe (low-tech manual) systems for shutting down a nuclear reactor in an earthquake zone in the event of a major earthquake. Is the kind of scenario we currently see playing out really hard to foresee?
I mentioned yesterday, there are thousands of nuclear bombs scattered about the globe and NONE of them are going off. Even though each of these bombs are filled with enough nuclear stuff to blow up, none of them seem to be doing so. And these bombs really aren’t all that big, which means the nuclear material must really be close together, but not so close so as to cause a chain reaction.
So … why are nuclear reactors so different?
How will your “yanking” technology survive an earthquake? Or complete loss of electricity to the plant?
I’m not saying it can’t be done, I just think the issues are probably harder than all that.
Well just of the top of my head …
1. Stored energy, such as can be found in coiled springs.
2. Gravity.
The design can be set us in such a way that if there is a loss of electricl power then the mechanism for extraction automatically takes place. Same principle as a “dead man’s” switch.
Think it might be useful to retrofit old reactors but I think we should move to the Thorium reactors as the best way to use nuclear power:
http://www.thorium.tv/en/thorium_reactor/thorium_reactor_1.php
Link did not seem to post. So I think that this might be good for a retrofit of old reactors, the future of nuclear power should be thorium reactors. Please everyone research, energy without significant carbon production (still have to mine etc. so cannot say no production).
Combo — Methinks you need to contact a good patent attorney before posting much more here…
“I’m not saying it can’t be done, I just think the issues are harder than all that.”
I’ll bet if one were to offer to the students of a high school science class ten-thousand dollars as a reward for thinking up a simple, no-nonsense, fail-safe design absolutely guaranteeing that the fuel rods inserted into a nuclear core of a reactor would be immediately extracted in any emergency, that they would come up with one.
Oxide mentioned yesterday about reactors doing an emergency “cram down”, whereby all the control rods are suddenly pushed into the core which stops the chain reaction.
But the fuel rods are still in the reactor, and if there is a melt down then the fuel rods will be melted down along with everything else. But if the fuel rods are extracted from the core and remove from the reactor then they won’t be involved in the melt down.
So … what am I missing?
Sometimes the simple way is the best way.
American engineers reportidly spent millions of dollars developing a ball point pen that would work in zero gravity conditions because they felt American astronauts just had to have one.
The Russian astronauts used a pencil.
Build the baffles, let the cars run over them millions of times a day for Free!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compressed_air_energy_storage
‘How will your “yanking” technology survive an earthquake?’
That’s the point of fail-safe: Pick a technology which is simple enough to be used in an earthquake.
The idea of your car’s emergency brake is illustrative: If the hydraulic system fails, the emergency brake uses a cable to activate the brake shoes.
Combo,
That’s an urban legend. The reason why the US didn’t use a pencil is because bits of graphite and broken pencil points would pose a hazard in microgravity.
Combo,
The problem with the removing the fuel rods is that you have to put them somewhere and keep them cool. The plants in Japan have an automated mechanism where the control rods are put into the fuel during an earthquake.
The fission reactions are effectively stopped when the control rods are inserted. Problem is, though, is that the fission products themselves are highly radioactive, so they continue to produce large amounts of heat as they decay.
Even the nuclear waste removed from the reactor has this problem — it has to be kept in cooling ponds for awhile until the radioactivity has gone down enough.
The problem is this. The core is extremely hot. Pumps circulate the primary circuit liquid from the core, to a heat exchanger, and back to the core. The secondary coolant is pressurized water. It picks up the heat from the heat exchanger and when its pressure is allowed to drop it flashes over into steam. The steam drives the turbines/generators. Under load, these turbines consume a lot of energy (heat). But when the transmission lines are all taken out, the generators essentially freewheel and no energy is taken from the steam. You now have to dump that heat someplace else or the primary circuit’s temperature rises. The mass of the core is such that you have to keep the coolant pumps running to draw heat away for hours or days even after you’ve “scrammed” the reactor, before it is cooled to a safe temperature.
At one plant, the diesel engines that were to run the pumps quit after just an hour or so.
“The problem with removing the fuel rods is that you have to put them somewhere and keep them cool.”
And putting them somewhere is a problem because …?
And why should you have to keep them cool? Because they are uranium (or plutonium, or whatever) the thermo heat shouldn’t be a problem any more than thermo heat would be a problem with any metal.
What you have to concern yourself about is keeping the fuel rods too close to each other - so close that a chain reaction would take place. But this would not happen with a proper design of the fuel-rod-yanking-system I would think.
“Problem is, though, that the fission products themselves are highly radioactive, so they produce large amounts of heat as they decay.”
Okay, then yank them out along with the the fuel rods. (I’m only joking here, but just a little bit. If there is a need to dismantle large sections of a core in an emergency then maybe that is what should be done).
Anyway, food for thought.
“That’s an urban legend. The reason why the U.S didn’t use a pencil is because bits of graphite and broken pencil points would pose a hazard in microgravity.”
Would it? Or is it just an explanation dreamed up by engineers after the fact to explain why they didn’t think of using a pencil?
Did the Russians have all that much trouble with bits of graphite and broken pencil points?
And then there is the issue of enormous quantities of skin cell dust that is generated daily by the human body and cast off into the surrounding air. If small quanties of graphite from a pencil is a big problem in a microgravity environment why wouldn’t large quantities of skin cells be a problem?
And why do pencils have to have graphite in them in the first place? Are there not pencils that have no graphite in them at all? Do colored pencils have graphite in them?
If the issue is graphite in a pencil then there is really no issue at all.
During the Space-Race Age, when we were going to catch up and pass the Russians when it came to everything involving outer space, there were unlimited budgets given to engineers and others to come up with “whatever it takes” ideas to beat the Russians.
“Whatever it takes” and “unlimited budgets” produces things such as very expensive ball-point pens.
You quys shouldn’t sweat the safety of US nuclear plants. Most all of them have been converted to coal now because its much cheaper to not have to conform to all the nuke regs and staffing requirements. Plus Obama likes coal and our simpleton government can even understand the technology. So its all good.
IANAS, but the way I understand it combotechie, SCRAM’ing the reactor immediately stops any reactions between the uranium within the reactor.
So basically it sounds like the problem with your idea (immediately remove and seperate the uranium), is that the uranium still possess a massive amount of heat thanks to the excited state it was in prior to the SCRAM. That heat needs to be continuously scrubbed off, and failure to do so will cause them to go over their melting temperature - whether they are sitting in that reactor surrounded by control rods, or sitting on your bedroom floor totally physically separated from the other uranium. So basically, removing them does nothing to solve the issue that for several days, the uranium is still going to heat up to the point where it will melt into slag and potentially cause a major catastrophe.
Since you’ll need to continue cooling it heavily for several days before it gets below the potential to hit melting point, it makes sense that you’d leave it in the best possible place to deliver said coolant safely - inside the reactor containment vessel. That contains the radiation, allows you to cool it in the way the plant intended that uranium to be cooled, and gives you the best possible level of protection available against a full-on core failure.
It seems that in the absence of power, the plant in question is actually using the steam this cooling process is generating to spin a turbine that has been rigged up to pump seawater through the plant. So once again the best place for the uranium is -inside- the reactor core.
This is completely unlike a nuclear weapon, which isn’t allowed to interact or create heat while sitting on the shelf, and thus doesn’t require active cooling.
Bond King’s big debt bet is on the mark, rivals say
By Jennifer Ablan
NEW YORK | Fri Mar 11, 2011 12:30pm EST
…
Gross’ decision to dump all the U.S. government debt holdings at his $236.9 billion PIMCO Total Return fund could be defining, either confirming him as one of the smartest investors of his generation or badly tainting his reputation.
…
But Gross - who helps oversee $1.1 trillion as co-chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. - is far from alone among the titans of the American bond world.
…
It does not take a genius to realize that interest rates are not going to get any lower than zero and that the clock is ticking. He maybe got a few extra points somewhere by talking his book before making his move.
“…interest rates are not going to get any lower than zero and that the clock is ticking.”
That part is obvious. What is less obvious is the timing of rate increases.
Yesterday at my son’s basketball game, I noticed a hapless mathematics teacher sitting outside the gymnasium, grading papers for his high school math class. I struck up a conversation by describing to him my long, sporadic history of teaching and tutoring math. The conversation inevitably veered into the economics realm. He told me about how some of his students’ parents called him to task for suggesting back around 2005 or so that San Diego home price appreciation had entered a period of unsustainable exponential growth; they wanted him to stick to pure math, and not apply it to the value of their most important investments.
Next we took up interest rates. I told him that rates were at fifty-year lows, and could only go up from here. But I also pointed out that the last time we were at similar levels to the current ones, circa 1960, it took twenty years for rates (e.g. long-term Treasury yields) to move up to the 14+ percent range.
Perhaps this time is different, as I take the impression the U.S. fiscal position is far more precarious now than it was in the 1960s?
higher rates would kill the recovery man.Uncle bens rice is getting more expensive too.
One of the interesting points of discussion with the math teacher was on the topic of what the Fed would like to do versus what the Fed is able to do. Obviously Uncle Ben would like to keep interest rates low for an indefinite period of time, but Uncle Bill’s big Treasury bond sale suggests that at least some well-informed market participants doubt the possibility of the Fed’s ongoing ability to do so.
I posed the question to Mr Math Teacher, “What exogenous factors might render inoperable the Fed’s plan to maintain a low rate environment for an extended period of time?” It’s great to be able to strike up a conversation like this out of the blue on the basis of the pile of papers sitting on somebody’s lap.
Hey man, I found bens new favorite song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9rZ4fOHReo
RE: Exogenous factors which could force the Fed’s hand
EconoMeter: Will rising food prices hurt recovery?
By Roger Showley, UNION-TRIBUNE
Saturday, March 12, 2011 at 8:20 p.m.
Do rising food prices here and abroad pose a serious concern about economic recovery?
Each week, our panel of eight local economists answer a question about the state of the economy. Besides gas prices, consumers are noticing rapid increases in food prices, putting an additional squeeze on household budgets both here and abroad. So the question is:
Do rising food prices here and abroad pose a serious concern about economic recovery?
…
THE PoWERS THAT BE ONLY CARE ABOUT THE CORE RATE!
Are all central bankers this politically tone deaf?
iPad price remark gets Fed’s Dudley an earful
On Saturday 12 March 2011, 3:34 SGT
By Kristina Cooke
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Memo to central bankers:
Best not to cite the price of the new iPad as an example of why inflation isn’t a problem when you head into a working-class neighborhood.
In Queens, New York, on Friday, New York Fed President William Dudley did just that. He got an earful.
After being bombarded with questions about food inflation, Dudley attempted to reassure his audience by putting rising commodity prices into a broader economic context — but that only made matters worse.
“When was the last time, sir, that you went grocery shopping?” one audience member asked.
…
funny how rich people are so out of touch with the working man.
‘Today you can buy an iPad 2 that costs the same as an iPad 1 that is twice as powerful,” he said.”You have to look at the prices of all things.’
A couple of things about this; one, technology/internet has been deflationary in general. What he’s citing is just that, and not some magic of the Fed. And don’t they tell us inflation is too low all the time?
So they are fighting this deflation with the only tool they have, and the prices of other things go up. This points to the antiquated model central banks are operating under. (What’s the saying, when you only have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail?)
The other thing is the strange phone/gadget fixation we see in the business media (and apparently, Fed guys). Just a couple of weeks ago, the financial press was leading every segment with the news that the iPhone could now be used on the Verison network. You know we don’t have a lot to hang our hat on when that’s a big story. Jeebus, even slum dwellers in India have cell phones now. How important to our prosperity can they really be?
“I can’t eat an iPad,” another said.”
And I would add that we can’t build an economy on the heavy use of fancy gadgets made overseas.
Yours is a post you yourself should keep, Ben. Excellent.
My view is anything that distracts Americans from the real task/s at hand is what is idolized within the confines of the United States. Not surprising, as we’re the Land of Entitlement, the Land of Entertain Me!, and Where’s Mine?
“And I would add that we can’t build an economy on the heavy use of fancy gadgets made overseas.”
This is music to my ears. It is remarkable how people think that sky high Apple stock, and massive sales of iPads, iPhones, etc. = healthy economy. I’d like to see the numbers on how many people are late on their payments to AT&T, or getting their service shut off. I never got a smart phone because I don’t see the value in paying a minimum $80 per month just to run the thing.
The other thing is the strange phone/gadget fixation we see in the business media
I think that I read somewhere a few years ago that the “technology” reporter at either the NY Times or the WSJ was the highest paid reporter at the newspaper.
I’m trying to guess why that’s the case. Maybe they think that they will attract more advertising from these “technology” companies if they have lots of coverage of that industry and its gadgets. Or maybe they think that it’s a way to get more young readers, since young people are supposed to be more obsessed with these gadgets.
There must also be a significant portion of the public that is addicted to this stuff. They buy the latest tablet of smartphone and then, like a spoiled child on Christmas afternoon, they quickly become bored with their latest toy and want to know when Apple, or whoever, is going to come out with something better. So those folks turn eagerly to the technology column of their newspaper to learn about the new gizmos available that they can go and buy.
Back to the original article:
“Misjudging your audience is hardly unusual for those in positions of power. In 2007, then-presidential candidate Barack Obama asked an Iowa crowd if they had seen what Whole Foods — an upscale supermarket more popular in big cities than in the Corn Belt — charges for arugula.”
‘hardly unusual for those in positions of power’ - That’s putting it nicely. How about detached from the real world? It helps to understand the decision process in DC to remember these things. Years ago, there was a poster here that claimed to know someone who worked closely with Alan Greenspan. It was related that he would get on an elevator, get in a limo, go here and there, get back in a limo and back to a red carpet, etc.
We’re just a few years from the ‘deficits don’t matter - reality based community’ statements. But IMO we should never forget these things, as it is more illustrative of how the system works than what we’re feed on news shows, etc. It’s entirely possible that what we experience and deal with are simple abstractions to people in DC or the Fed. With their heads full of models, toadies, polls, and nothing to connect them to the real world but chatting with similarly clueless “positions of power” over plates of arugula.
“And I would add that we can’t build an economy on the heavy use of fancy gadgets made overseas.”
I’ve got a great idea! How about if we build an economy on building houses made here in ‘Merika, then sell them to each other at higher and higher prices — you know, real estate always goes up. Pretty soon we’d all be rich!
Oh wait…
Comment by Ben Jones
2011-03-13 13:01:45
‘Today you can buy an iPad 2 that costs the same as an iPad 1 that is twice as powerful,” he said.”You have to look at the prices of all things.’
The other thing is the strange phone/gadget fixation we see in the business media (and apparently, Fed guys). Just a couple of weeks ago, the financial press was leading every segment with the news that the iPhone could now be used on the Verison network. You know we don’t have a lot to hang our hat on when that’s a big story. Jeebus, even slum dwellers in India have cell phones now. How important to our prosperity can they really be?
“I can’t eat an iPad,” another said.”
And I would add that we can’t build an economy on the heavy use of fancy gadgets made overseas.
——————–
You’ve hit on one of my (many) pet peeves, Ben.
Around here, in SD, everyone who has a “good” job is employed in tech. They create those “apps” for the various mobile phone companies, etc. They all think that they are invincible, and that they are greater than all other workers, combined. A lot of hubris in tech, it seems.
I can’t get over the fact that they think “making movies accessible on a cell phone” is somehow a great accomplishment. IMHO, if we got RID of a lot of this productivity-destroying junk, we’d be much better off.
The internet was a great leap forward because it made research so much more accessible to more people, and enabled people to connect with one another over time and space (like your blog, here). But “watching movies” and “playing games” is NOT a benefit to society, IMHO. Quite the opposite, as far as I’m concerned.
it took twenty years for rates (e.g. long-term Treasury yields) to move up to the 14+ percent range.
Ha, those where not equals “steps” of 1/4 inch risers, as I’m certain you are well cognizant of Professor “Bear”.
This got me thinking about a Jimmy Stewart poem he read on Johnny Carson. It’s a poem in it about the stairs leading up to his hotel.
“The top step in the hotel in Junin is mean. Like the Devil is mean. And it lies at the top of the other steps, So quiet, so still, so serene.”
Speaking of stairs, which one might the Fed Inc. use as a “Model”?
http://uncleeddiestheorycorner.blogspot.com/2009/02/interesting-staircases.html
Ascending and descending
Tankxs Mr. Bear, that link resembles my passbook savings account, the one with $86.86…
(e.g. long-term Treasury yields) to move up to the 14+ percent range ??
All fabricated by Paul Volker with indiscriminate disregard for small business people particularly with people associated with real estate in any way…
“All fabricated by Paul Volker with indiscriminate disregard for small business people particularly with people associated with real estate in any way…”
A lot of posters here seem to believe the Fed controls the movements of the tides, the moon, the planets and the sun. The Fed wants you to believe that, but they ain’t all that…
believe the Fed controls ??
Well, I am in agreement that they may not be able to control rates on the downside indefinitely but they surely can control them to the upside…Thats why I made the statement about Volker…
Some of us believe that RE prices should come down as rates rise. Again, what do the RE types have against affordable housing for working people? If people would stop thinking about housing as an “investment,” we might start going down a more sustainable path to a healthy economy.
Does Governor Walker have pitchfork protection?
‘Wisconsin 14′ group of Democratic senators returns, greeted by thousands at Capitol
By Lyndsey Layton
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, March 13, 2011
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Tens of thousands, including a group of farmers who drove tractors to the gathering, rally outside the state Capitol in Madison, Wis
…
Whatever happened to the Anderson School’s porcine beauticians? Nowadays, their forecasts are coming out less upbeat than an Edgar Allen Poe short story.
Published: March 9, 2011
Updated: 10:29 a.m.
California 2011 job growth ‘dismal’
By MARY ANN MILBOURN
THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
California’s economy has shifted from slow into low with the unemployment rate expected to be in double digits until 2013, a UCLA economist forecast today.
Jerry Nickelsburg said in UCLA’s California quarterly economic forecast that anticipated job growth pulled back in the fourth quarter of last year and will remain weak in the first part of 2011. He expects job creation to gain speed later this year and into 2012.
As a result, Nickelsburg revised his predictions for statewide job growth down to 1.1% this year from the 1.6% rate initially forecast last fall.
“The recovery is unfolding much as we predicted and, as a consequence, our forecast is very close to those of the last year,” Nickelsburg said. “Those forecasts were for a sluggish, but ever improving jobs pictures. While that is what we are seeing, the improvements we were forecasting, dismal though they were, were not quite dismal enough.”
…
there are always jobs in the central valley.Just a matter if you need work bad enough.Most people resort to welfare and food stamps before they get their hands dirty.
+1…Spot on a-dude…….
My dad used to live in the Central Valley. IIRC, they had one of the highest unemployment rates in the state because of the seasonality of farm work. Lots of empty buildings and malls, and this was years before any “financial crisis.”
What jobs were you talking about?
East Bay school districts grapple with budget scenarios ranging from flat to catastrophic
By Katy Murphy
Oakland Tribune
Posted: 03/12/2011 09:27:50 PM PST
Updated: 03/12/2011 09:27:54 PM PST
Some school districts are calling it the “worst-case scenario” — a $2 billion cut in K-12 education funding that is all but guaranteed if California doesn’t extend a $12.6 billion package of temporary taxes.
But the worst-case scenario, in fact, is far worse than that.
California’s budget deficit is $26.6 billion. About 40 percent of the state’s general fund is allocated to public schools. If the temporary taxes expire this year and the Legislature suspends the state’s minimum-funding guarantee for schools, K-12 education cuts could easily reach $4 billion or more, according to estimates from the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office.
That’s $700 per student, about 13 percent of the average school district’s general-purpose money. And it’s twice the amount that many California school districts are preparing to cut from next year’s budget.
…
Where is all that money for schools generated by the state lottery? Oh, I seem to remember that it was discretionary; must have ended up in administration salaries.
That’s the first thing out of people’s mouths, when talk turns to school funding. That hype should have hurt the credibility of lotteries, but instead it backfired on the education lobby.
A wired world sees the horror as it happens
Instead of bearing witness to a disaster’s aftermath, viewers watch in wrenching real time the catastrophic events in Japan — alternately spellbound and tortured by their inability to help.
By Scott Gold and Hector Becerra, Los Angeles Times
March 12, 2011
After the quake, it took 45 minutes for the tsunami to reach the coast of Japan — 45 minutes of knowing, of waiting, of bracing.
When it came, they were all glued to their televisions — a Jesuit priest in New York, an engineering professor in rural Oregon, a geophysicist in San Diego. What unfolded had never been broadcast live before: a 13-foot wall of mud that belittled human achievement, folding houses inside out, propelling yachts across miles of rice fields, rupturing oil refineries, sweeping trains from their tracks and killing hundreds.
…
“Instead of bearing witness to a disaster’s aftermath, viewers watch in wrenching real time ” true reality TV.
Nothing better than mother nature to bring home just how insignificant man is.
“History shows again and again
How Nature points out the folly of men”
- Godzilla by Blue Oyster Cult.
Japan earthquake shifted Earth on its axis
By Eryn Brown, Los Angeles Times
March 12, 2011, 7:59 p.m.
Friday’s magnitude 8.9 earthquake in Japan shifted Earth on its axis and shortened the length of a day by a hair. In the future, scientists said, it will provide an unusually precise view of how Earth is deformed during massive earthquakes at sites where one plate is sliding under another, including the U.S. Pacific Northwest.
…
So that’s why I was late for everything yesterday.
Meltdown may be occurring at nuclear plant, Japanese official says
By Molly Hennessy-Fiske Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
March 12, 2011, 3:52 p.m.
A meltdown may be occurring at one of the reactors at an earthquake-damaged nuclear power plant in northeast Japan, a government official told CNN Sunday morning Japan time.
“There is a possibility, we see the possibility of a meltdown,” said Toshihiro Bannai, director of the international affairs office of Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety, in a telephone interview with CNN from the agency’s Tokyo headquarters. “At this point, we have still not confirmed that there is an actual meltdown, but there is a possibility.”
Bannai said engineers have been unable to get close enough to the reactor’s core to know what’s going on, and that he based his conclusion on radioactive cesium and iodine measured in the air near the plant Saturday night.
…
I did not have enough time in a day before the quake and now this: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/03/13/scitech/main20042590.shtml
The take away isn’t the shortening of the day, it’s the redistribution of the planet’s mass. All the plates are interconnected, so who knows what effect that redistribution might have on other stress points on the earth’s crust. Maybe none, maybe lots - but the tectonic balance has changed that’s for sure.
I never supported intervention in Libya since I believe that both sides hate us and we gained nothing from the intervention and might get dragged into an tribal conflict. However, the Obama adminstration seems to have wanted to intervene but with an international response. Too late: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/af_libya
I hope when we have a real interest to protect we don’t wait for the international community given the response in this case.
Was reading a link yesterday, about the French, and what they might do.
Seems that Total Petroleum is the biggest player in Libya. The question being how far will the French go to protect Total’s interests?
They sure don’t have a problem with protecting EADS.
BTW, the French have a couple of new aircraft carriers. And aerial refueling tankers. And AWACS. And Corsica is not that far away. I suspect they could enforce a no-fly zone all by themselves, if they had the mind to do it. Maybe by working out a deal with the new Tunisian government, to help manage the “refugee crisis”.
Good. Let the French take care of it this time.
I agree…Stay out of it…
The last time we intervened in Lybia, to snipe the Col., the French denied us permission to use their airspace, IIRC.
They had first dibs…….
Every major California city has its faults.
San Diego’s top quake threat is Rose Canyon Fault
Would cut water lines, spark fires, crack freeways and cause other damage
By Mike Lee, UNION-TRIBUNE
Saturday, March 12, 2011 at 3 p.m.
Japan’s devastating one-two punch of an earthquake-powered tsunami isn’t a likely worst-case scenario in San Diego County.
The biggest feasible threat remains the good old-fashioned quake that severs water supply lines, sparks fires, cracks freeways and damages vital infrastructure such as port facilities, local emergency officials said in the wake of the disaster in Japan.
The dangers posed by the southern San Andreas Fault have been studied and modeled time and again. The lesser-known problem — but possibly the more disabling one for county residents — is a major slip along the Rose Canyon Fault that runs through downtown San Diego, La Jolla and north along the coast.
“That is our number one threat,” said Ron Lane, head of emergency services for San Diego County. “The San Andreas for the most part — even the 7.8 magnitude prediction — does very little damage. … It’s not the big one. For us, the big one is at Rose Canyon.”
…
Would cut water lines, spark fires, crack freeways and cause other damage
Enough with “Eeyore” ‘tude Mr. Bear,…Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!
“I insist the previous owners come back and feed the squirrels, or I am not buying!”
First-time buyers turn fussy about ‘move-in ready’ homes
Stricter loan requirements and cable TV have helped make purchasers extra picky, experts say.
March 06, 2011|By Kenneth R. Harney, Reporting From Washington
Picky, picky, picky. Are today’s first-time home buyers passing up great deals because they insist on flawless “move-in ready” houses requiring little or no changes — even at the starter-home price levels at which shoppers traditionally have been willing to factor future fix-ups and renovations into their offers?
…
I bet they wouldn’t be as picky if the price were lower.
Right?
Yeah right, what spin. Might these be the same first time buyers that retreated to their parents’ basement?
I love the concept of the starter home, how it trivializes the purchase.
Another fantastic marketing ploy.
Like a starter wife.
Around here, “starter homes” can be in the $300K-$400K range. Exactly how do these RE shills think “starter buyers” are supposed to afford those prices AND afford to fix them up?
Bring those prices back down to where they belong — $100K-$200K (at most) — and I’m sure the buyers will miraculously become less “picky.”
Back when the bubble was slowing, one of the first signs was that the buyers suddenly became more “picky.” I do believe we are at or near the top of this most recent bear market rally in RE.
I wonder how carefully the I.R.S. will check taxpayer qualifications for canceled mortgage debt income forgiveness? FB’s beware!
Many still owe taxes on forgiven home-equity debt
By Kenneth R. Harney
Friday, March 11, 2011; 2:51 PM
…
The IRS offers a hypothetical example of how borrowers can mess up their chances for tax relief. A taxpayer took out a first mortgage of $800,000 when he purchased his home years ago. Thanks to strong appreciation in property values, the house was soon worth $1 million, and the owner refinanced the mortgage to $850,000. The loan balance at the time of the refinance was down to $740,000, and the owner used the $110,000 in cash-out proceeds to buy a new car and pay off credit card debts.
Bad move. A year or two later - presumably well into the recession and housing bust - the home value had plunged to between $700,000 and $750,000. The owner then persuaded his bank to allow a short sale for $735,000 and cancel the remain-ing $115,000 of unpaid debt.
Does the owner get tax relief on the full $115,000 under Congress’s special exemption? No way, according to the IRS. He escapes income taxes on just $5,000 of the $115,000 because he spent the other $110,000 on a car and credit card balances - neither of which counts as “qualified principal residence” debt.
Greg A. Rosica, a tax partner with accounting giant Ernst & Young, says misunderstandings over the rules about mortgage-debt forgiveness are “commonplace.” People often don’t know that “the equity line [money] you used for vacations” and other purposes “just will not qualify” under IRS rules.
Taxpayers who walk away from their houses may be liable for taxes, Rosica said in an interview, if at some point the property “no longer was their primary residence.” This could happen, for example, if they rented it out for the period between their last payment and the foreclosure, effectively converting the house into rental property, not their principal home.
…
I guess the IRS will be hiring.
Still sounds like a good move to me! A new car and vacation at your marginal tax rate instead of full price!
And, you never know when they will come knocking either…It could be many years later…
A bunch of people are really hosed, if the Feds get serious about “fraud and abuse”.
What’s funny is we know it, and most of them don’t have a clue..yet.
This should inspire a round of “how to hide your transactions” seminars.
Too bad cutting the IRS’ budget is job one for our new TeaKoch Party congressmen.
more problems, now a volcano: http://www.timeslive.co.za/world/article965229.ece/Japanese-volcano-erupts
This should be a great time for Jehovah Witnesses to recruit new members.
Wow ,whats left to hit Japan ?
Godzilla.
Think about it. Offshore earthquake. Tsunami. Radiation. Volcano.
All the ingredients are there. Only one thing left…
Mothra!
And the evangelical fundies are nattering like moonbats about this. I can see them now. Making chasm-wide leaps, paging through revelation, declaring the end of the world.
Wack jobs.
Circular logic.
Efficient market theorists have lauded the stock market’s prescience, but can it anticipate earthquakes?
Selloff Crushes Market Leaders
Bears focus on stocks that led last fall’s rally
Mar. 11, 2011, 6:14 am EDT | By Anthony Mirhaydari
Over the last few weeks, a curious stalemate had developed in the stock market. The bears, encouraged by soaring oil prices, political turmoil in the Middle East and Africa, and fresh worries over European debt problem, have come out of hibernation in a big way for the first time since the seven-month market uptrend started last September. They’ve viciously defended the 2,800 level on the Nasdaq Composite.
For their part, the bulls continue to believe that the Fed’s easy money will win the day and literally paper over the world’s problems with cheap dollars. They’ve defended the Nasdaq’s 50-day moving average.
But on Thursday, the stalemate was broken as the bears eviscerated stocks in leading sector groups like semiconductors, materials, and energy. The rotation out of cyclical, “high-beta” sectors suggests that the bulls are now in full retreat. And that means there is more downside movement yet to come.
…
So will the market sell off if the FED doesnt do QE3.How soon will market selloff? Will it be in june @ end of QE2 or the smart money jumping ship now? Do u dare short this market?A lot of people got their heads handed to them trying to short all the way off the lows.
And similar articles can be found aplenty to counter this piece.
Do rising food prices here and abroad pose a serious concern about economic recovery?
Thanks for your vote.
Yes 90% 97 votes
No 9% 10 votes
107 total votes
Dudley = politically tone deaf and dumb.
“Didjya ever eat an iPad? Many parts are edible.”
iPad price remark gets Fed’s Dudley an earful
On Saturday 12 March 2011, 3:34 SGT
By Kristina Cooke
…
“Today you can buy an iPad 2 that costs the same as an iPad 1 that is twice as powerful,” he said.”You have to look at the prices of all things.”
This prompted guffaws and widespread murmuring from the audience, with one audience member calling the comment “tone deaf.”
“I can’t eat an iPad,” another said.
…
Yeah, and those new Ferrari’s have twice the performance, but don’t cost more, in inflation corrected dollars than the 1990 models.
I vote that Congress be moved to a trailer park outside Shreveport, Louisiana for a year or two.
The ones with the old FEMA trailers?
Oh come on, more than ten people work at the Federal Reserve.
Kind of like when Sir Greenie cited households owning two cars as evidence of the “prosperity” he had engineered.
Too bad he didn’t understand something called the two income trap, or that those households had two cars because they had to have two cars - not because they necessarily wanted them - and that they more than likely used HELOC (debt) to buy them, not saved money!
Did he really say such a thing? The whole two-income, two-car family thing got started in the 1970s, long before he was Fed. chairman.
Yes he did, and it wasn’t that long ago. IIRC, 2003-4. Back when he was still waxing beautific over the marvelous housing bubble he helped engineer.
zimbabwe ben to the rescue:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unTL7BrNVKc
That’s funny!
What articles like this one seem to miss is the likely prospect of QE3, QE4, QE5, ad infinitum.
Who Buys Treasuries Once the Fed Leaves Town?
By Morgan Housel
March 11, 2011
It’d be easy to brush off that kind of talk as rambling hyperbole if it came from almost anyone other than the man who said it — Bill Gross, the head of PIMCO, the world’s largest bond manager. He knows what he’s talking about, and he puts his money where his mouth is.
…
Will the FED ever leave town?
OMG DRACONIAN CUTS COMING
http://the-american-catholic.com/2011/03/05/president-obamas-draconian-budget-cuts/
If you can`t swing a cat around that`s a deal breaker.
For sale: The world’s smallest house (7ft wide, 47ft long, and going for a mere £110,000)
By Mail Foreign Service
At just over seven feet wide and 47 feet long, this tiny building is one of the smallest functioning homes in the world.
The 312-square foot ‘Little House’ of Toronto, Canada, has developed a cult following and even has its own website.
Back on the property market for £110,000, the comfortable home surprisingly comes with three rooms, including a normal sized bathtub.
With a front drive that parks two family sized cars - even though the house itself is barely big enough to swing a cat round - it still comes with all amenities.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1262806/For-sale-The-worlds-smallest-house-seven-feet-wide-47-feet-long-going-just-110-000.html -
Most home buyers (me) don’t care if the cat hits a few walls or ceilings when swinging it around.
Go to 1:40 of this clip. Cats hitting the wall is one thing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9arftmT7Y0 - 108k -
What a waste of space.
PBS just did a segment on those trendy new tiny houses on wheels. The craziest thing is, you can pull it from place to place!
We used to call those “trailers.”
CA is doomed:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/67473036/
He doesn’t mention the San Diego pension system, but that was the one which came to my mind when he mentioned the need to eliminate bad behavior in local pension systems.
1/2 of CA state pensioners take home less than $16,000 a year out of their pension programs. Apparently (and no surprises here), the problems stem from abuses by those at the top of the pension system.
Damn janitors!
Yup. Janitors, sanitation workers and bus drivers ruined this country I declare! They’re dangerous thinkers!
bus drivers ruined this country I declare! They’re dangerous thinkers!
Ralph Kramden one of Hwy50’s hero’s!
The Fed Inc. never had this sorta trouble, even when dealing with Trillions of $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7yapKO2RWs&feature=related
There truly has never been a better time for first-time home buyers to catch themselves a falling knife.
First-Time Homebuyers Face the Opportunity of a Lifetime
Published: Thursday, February 03, 2011, 10:44 AM
Updated: Thursday, February 03, 2011, 10:48 AM
Prudential Homesale Services Group
Today’s first-time homebuyers are presented with the opportunity of a lifetime. Mortgage rates in January stood near lows last seen during the Truman administration while home prices were well off their peaks of previous years. The combination made housing affordability, as measured by the National Association of REALTORS®, the highest since NAR® launched its Affordability Index in 1973.
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First-Time Homebuyers Face the Opportunity of a Lifetime
By: Christine Sneeringer, VP Marketing, Advertising, & Communications
Posted: 03/11/2011 02:01:36 PM EST
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First Time Buyers Face Opportunity of a Lifetime
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Sunday, Jan 10th, 2010
First-Time Homebuyers Face the Opportunity of a Lifetime
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First-Time Homebuyers Face the Opportunity of a Lifetime
December 14th, 2010
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First time home buyers face the opportunity of a lifetime!
Posted on 14th December 2010 by Anthony in Industry News
Prudential One Realty
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First Time Buyers Face Opportunity of a Lifetime
Posted on: December 28th, 2010 by jenmatt
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January 19, 2011
First-Time Homebuyers Face the Opportunity of a Lifetime
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What a bunch of morons these Used Home Sellers are! They can’t even think up their own talking points, instead deferring to standard propaganda drivel out of moron headquarters.
What a bunch of lying dishonest underqualified schleps. Their lies are disgusting.
And they repeat their lies ad nauseum. The used home sales profession is like an echo chamber for lies.
Real estate always goes up, and this Used Home Seller-sponsored survey proves it!
Kindly wake this bear from hibernation at whatever point the sheeple collectively realize that real estate is the worst investment.
Americans Confident in Recovery of Real Estate Market
RISMEDIA, March 14, 2011—The majority of America’s potential homebuyers and sellers—68 percent—believe that the real estate market and property values will recover in the next year or two, according to a survey released recently by Prudential Real Estate and Relocation Services, Inc., a Prudential Financial, Inc. [NYSE:PRU] company.
This exceeds the 47 percent of Americans who expected house prices would rise in a similar survey conducted in April 2010, underscoring a more bullish outlook for the real estate market today.
In addition, 86 percent of Americans believe real estate is a good investment despite the market volatility of the past few years. The Prudential Real Estate Outlook Survey of 1,253 Americans between the ages of 25-64 in the market for buying a home was conducted Jan. 20-27, 2011.
…
Amazingly, the Used Home Sellers survey is far more upbeat than Fannie’s.
* March 10, 2011, 6:30 AM ET
Poll Finds ‘Half-Full’ Housing Outlook
By Matthew Strozier
Dire news about falling home prices abounds, but a new poll finds that a surprising percentage of potential buyers and sellers believe that the market is headed for an upswing.
Sixty-eight percent of respondents in a survey released this morning by Prudential Real Estate and Relocation Services, Inc., said the market and property values will recover in the next year or two. This is up from last April, when 47% of respondents expected that house prices would rise. And perhaps most surprising of all, 86% of Americans in the survey said that real estate is a good investment despite the volatility of recent years.
Huh?
Didn’t we just report that the number of Americans who believe that buying a home is a safe investment continues to fall? In that survey, conducted by Fannie Mae, just 64% of respondents said they believe a home is a safe investment, down from 70% a year ago and 83% in December 2003.
…
Just browsing for “buy now” propaganda from 2005, and came upon this (nothing like leading sheeple to the slaughter for these good-hearted politicians):
Passport to Homeownership: A First-Time Homebuyer Fair
November 3, 2005
When: Saturday, November 12, 2005
Time: 10:00 a.m. - 2:30 p.m.
Where: Almansor Court
700 South Almansor Street in Alhambra
Who: Congressman Adam Schiff, the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, representatives from the City of Alhambra, the State of California, mortgage lenders, realtors, and first-time homebuyer organizations
Join us for this free event to learn about programs designed to help you prepare for that first home purchase. Representatives will discuss:
Special assistance programs for teachers, public safety officers, and all first-time homebuyers
Programs for low- to moderate-income households that require little or no down payment
Loans with deferred payments and layered financing
Workshops will be conducted in English, Mandarin and Spanish. Participants will be able to get a free copy and analysis of their credit report.
Congressman Schiff is the co-founder of the Democratic Study Group on National Security and a member of both the House Judiciary and International Relations committees. He represents California’s 29th Congressional District, which includes the communities of Alhambra, Altadena, Burbank, East Pasadena, East San Gabriel, Glendale, Monterey Park, Pasadena, San Gabriel, South Pasadena and Temple City.
http://schiff.house.gov/index.cfm?sectionid=154&parentid=25§iontree=6,25,154&itemid=570
“Losses from the quake, tsunami and fires will total at least $100 billion, …”
While I consider that estimate on the low side it puts into perspective the damage our banksters did to this country. A tsunami, a nuclear core meltdown and an 8.9 earthquake are nothing compared to the damage Wall Street can do to your economy.
+1
Or the cost of some endless far flung military adventures.
Wouldn’t it be nice to have all that money back, to use here, or to help out after disasters like this one?
I wonder if we would have had a “financial crisis” if that money had stayed here.
Exactly Mike.
“Acts” of Nature…vs…”Freaks” of Nature…life on the spinning planet continues unabated…
Here’s a look into the economic tool of the quake. Not good.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Japan-quake-tsunami-take-dire-apf-3218231004.html?x=0
And note the passages and comments regarding the BoJ’s role in the aftermath. What role is there for a CB that’s been ZIRPing and QEing for years and years?
Japanese stock market is down more than 5%. The big question is what is this going to do to the carry trade?
QE in Japan to the rescue: http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/77528.html
Gov’t pulls in contradictory directions on home prices
To deal with the housing shortage, Israel needs a leader who knows how to act, not one who merely seeks credits.
13 March 11 17:27, Dror Marmor
Do you want the truth? The Israeli government doesn’t really know what it wants. It unanimously says that it want to slash home prices, but also unanimously warns that popping the real estate bubble in Israel and returning prices to their levels of 2-3 years ago would jeopardize the economy.
…
Ah, yes, they want to eat their cake and have it too.
Home Prices Falling in Western U.S.
Kirk Haverkamp | March 11, 2011
Home price trends in the western United States have been moving in an opposite direction from the rest of the country in recent months, with price declines accelerating even as rest of the country shows increasing signs of stability.
If the trend continues, the West could experience a “double-dip” in housing prices as soon as next month, with prices exceeding the lows hit in early 2009, according to new figures released by real estate data firm Clear Capital. As it stands now, prices in the West Region of the country are only 0.7 percent above those lows.
The decline in Western real estate prices has been driven by continued weakness in hard-hit markets such as Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tucson, but also by declines in formerly healthy or recovering markets such as Portland, Seattle and San Francisco. Prices in all six metropolitan areas showed quarterly declines of 4-6 percent for the period ending in February, according to Clear Capital.
Prices predicted to level out in spring
…
IMHO, it’s because these areas have remained “formerly healthy” that the declines are resuming. The bubble was never allowed to fully deflate in the mid-higher tier housing markets. At some point, the weight of these overpriced homes will overwhelm the ability of the Fed/govt to prop them up. There are only so many people in this world who can afford $1MM homes, and most of those people do NOT want to live in 3/2, 1,500 sf houses in “average” neighborhoods.
Portland, Seattle home prices dismal
Portland Business Journal - by Wendy Culverwell, Business Journal Staff Writer
Date: Friday, March 11, 2011, 12:36pm PST -
Last Modified: Friday, March 11, 2011, 2:55pm PST
Portland and Seattle rank with Las Vegas, Tucson and Phoenix as the five worst-performing cities for home price declines over the past two years.
Portland home prices dropped 14.6 percent and Seattle prices dropped 16.9 percent over a two year period, according to a February index of home prices released Thursday by Clear Capital, a Truckee, Calif.-based real estate data service.
…
Fox News just reported that President Obama and a group of Kenyan voodoo priests cast a spell on the pacific tectonic plate which caused the Japan disaster.
It was his mothership, I tell ya! He’s showin’ the Chineez whose boss!
He’s like, ” Y’all want a piece o’ this?”
He’s evil, but he’s good to have on our side.
LMAO!!!!!!
Lil Opie,(The Non-Hawaiian) was trying to destroy his fake birth certificate in Hawaii, really…what you don’t believe me? He’s lready destroyed America,…and he still has until midnight Jan 20th 2013!
Business
Saturday, Mar. 12, 2011
Myrtle Beach area home values decline 13%
By Jake Spring
The number of homes and condos sold on the Grand Strand appears to be stabilizing while real estate prices continue to decline, according to an expert and statistics released this week.
Single-family home sales in Horry and Georgetown counties fell 7 percent in February compared to the same month last year, and condo sales fell 6 percent, according to data from the Multiple Listing Service released Thursday.
There’s often a slight delay in sales being reported, so as more are reported on the MLS in coming weeks, the single-digit decline in home sales in February is expected to get even smaller and may end up being even with February 2010, said Tom Maeser, a real estate analyst with the Coastal Carolinas Association of Realtors.
Median home prices fell 13 percent to $161,500 compared to the same month a year ago, and condo prices fell 9 percent to $104,500.
“We should have a continued path we were on last year, where sales will continue to be close to last year, or even increase,” Maeser said. “Prices will probably continue to decrease but they’ll decrease at a lesser rate … especially in single-family homes.”
…
I guess whether the current real estate market is bad or good depends on whether you own falling knife investment properties that you want to sell.
Why There’s No Such Thing As A Bad Real Estate Market
Tara Struyk, provided by
Investopedia March 10, 2011 04:00 AM
“Down” and “depressed” - according to the news, that’s the real estate market these days. And thanks to continuing tight credit and sluggish job growth, the United States isn’t likely to see anything like a booming real estate market for many years. But although reports about today’s real estate market sound grim, here’s something you probably haven’t heard: there’s no such thing as a “bad” real estate market.
…
OT-
My wife watches that stupid Big Love series on HBO about the mormons. Anyways, each week I’d hear the catchy intro theme to it so I youtubed it and it’s so hauntingly beautiful.. ethereal and boundaryless … heavenly but runs deep. Harmonies like angels singing. The arrangement is brilliant simplicity. I suppose it’s the guitar player in me but it’s one of those songs that have a unique way of reaching below the surface.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUCdo2Cne48
I’d love to watch the show, but doing so would result in a black mark against me from my LDS wife.
Ruh roh.
The music is cool…
“TrueBeliever’s™” + “TruePurity™” = a new Utah Republican state senator?
Well, I ain’t seen it,…but I’m amused by the reality/concept of those who wish to lead by EXAMPLE :
(my Amish cousins have their own “distortions”,… then again, so does my “millionaire” brother…)
Bill Paxton as Bill Henrickson – Main character. A practicing polygamist and a new Utah Republican state senator.
Jeanne Tripplehorn as Barbara “Barb” Henrickson – Bill’s first wife. Mother of Sarah, Ben, and Tancy (”Teeny”).
Chloë Sevigny as Nicolette “Nicki” Grant – Bill’s second wife, Barb’s former caretaker (during her bout with cancer) and Roman Grant’s daughter. Mother of Wayne and Raymond (with Bill), and Cara Lynn (with J.J.)
Thanks for sharing that, exeter. It is indeed beautiful.
Technically speaking, isn’t two straight quarters of GDP decline a key qualification to declare an economy is in recession?
Analysis: Japan quake risks severe near-term economic damage
People walk in front of a tuna fishing boat tossed on to land in Kesennuma City, Miyagi Prefecture in northern Japan, after an earthquake and tsunami struck the area, March 13, 2011. REUTERS/Kyodo
By Natsuko Waki
LONDON | Sun Mar 13, 2011 2:36pm EDT
LONDON (Reuters) - A triple blow of earthquake, tsunami and one of Japan’s worst nuclear accidents is set to damage the world’s third largest economy, possibly more deeply and for longer than initially expected.
Power outages and possible tax rises are likely to hurt companies and households and could outweigh the mild economic aftershock from the 1995 Kobe earthquake, given that oil prices and the yen are stronger and Japan’s debt pile is much bigger.
Rolling blackouts will start Monday, affecting businesses and households as the country grapples with its worst crisis since World War Two. More than 1 million people are without water or power and towns have been wiped off the map.
Already saddled with debt that is double the size of its $5 trillion economy and threatened by credit downgrades, the government is discussing a temporary tax rise to fund relief work.
Japan’s economic growth is in a better profile than it was when the Kobe quake struck. But many say a noticeable hit to GDP, which was only just recovering from contraction at the end of 2010, is likely to be felt over the next several months.
“When we talk about natural disasters, we tend to see an initial sharp drop in production… then you tend to have a V-shaped rebound. But initially everyone underestimates the damage,” said Michala Marcussen, head of global economics at Societe Generale.
“Power supply is a critical factor. If power production output is damaged in a sustainable fashion, that could have a durable impact on the economy.”
Tokyo Electric Power Co said on Sunday it may have to conduct rolling blackouts in winter, in addition to summer.
“The earthquake will bring lots of things to a halt. We are going to see quite a dent on GDP, blackouts will lead to a sharp contraction of production,” said Janwillem Acket, group chief economist at Julius Baer.
He estimated the damage would be felt for two quarters, but it was not likely to knock the economy back into recession.
…
Do robo-signers have the means and the time budget to detect whether a given foreclosure action is against a military family?
U.S. Inquiry on Military Family Foreclosures
By DIANA B. HENRIQUES
Published: March 11, 2011
The Justice Department is investigating allegations that a mortgage subsidiary of Morgan Stanley foreclosed on almost two dozen military families from 2006 to 2008 in violation of a longstanding law aimed at preventing such action.
A department spokeswoman confirmed on Friday that the Morgan Stanley unit, Saxon Mortgage Services, is one of several mortgage and lending companies being investigated by its civil rights division. The inquiry is focused on possible violations of a federal law that bars lenders from foreclosing on active-duty service members without a court hearing.
…
Our friends and relatives are safe (they are in Ise)…Hwy50’s heart is quite, quite…sad this night.
Almost 2 million households were without power in the freezing north, the government said. There were about 1.4 million without running water.
“I am looking for my parents and my older brother,” Yuko Abe, 54, said in tears at an emergency center in Rikuzentakata.
“Seeing the way the area is, I thought that perhaps they did not make it. I also cannot tell my siblings that live away that I am safe, as mobile phones and telephones are not working.”
Still yet…
Authorities had been pouring sea water in two of the reactors at the complex to cool them down.
Nuclear experts said it was probably the first time in the industry’s 57-year history that sea water has been used in this way, a sign of how close Japan may be to a major accident.
“Injection of sea water into a core is an extreme measure,” Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “this is not according to the book.”
“Hwy50’s heart is quite, quite…sad this night.”
Same here. I have two Japanese-American girls in my daughter’s school carpool. When I picked them up Friday morning, I asked them if they had heard of the earthquake, and they hadn’t. Today word was out that they may have some extended family members in the quake/tsunami zone. I imagine most Californians are only a couple of degrees of separation away from the tragedy.
In the meantime, government and power company officials are working to prevent even such a calamity — even if it means rendering the Daiichi plant inoperable.
Authorities ordered the injection of sea water and boron into the affected reactors, even though salt and boron will corrode the reactor.
“Essentially, they are waving the white flag and saying, ‘This plant is done,’” Walsh said. “This is a last-ditch mechanism to try to prevent overheating and to prevent a partial or full meltdown.”
‘Nother painful SEC wrist slap on the way?
* The Wall Street Journal
* U.S. NEWS
* MARCH 13, 2011, 4:23 A.M. ET
Former Fannie CEO May Face SEC Action
By NICK TIMIRAOS
Daniel Mudd, the former chief executive of Fannie Mae, said he has received a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission, the latest clue that federal investigators have expanded their years-long probe into the troubled mortgage finance giant.
Mr. Mudd, now the head of Fortress Investment Group LLC, said in a statement provided to Bloomberg News that he had received the formal notification from the SEC that it plans to pursue civil claims against him. The development was first reported by Bloomberg News.
Mr. Mudd took the helm of Fannie in 2004 in the midst of an accounting scandal and oversaw its financial-reporting restatement with the SEC. He was sacked by the government when it took control of the mortgage firm in 2008 and agreed to inject unlimited sums as ballooning loan losses wiped away thin capital reserves. In August 2009, he became CEO of Fortress, the New York-based hedge fund.
…
* JOHN FUND ON THE TRAIL
* MARCH 11, 2011, 9:52 P.M. ET
Jerry Brown Is Dogging It
The California governor sends the First Dog to do a man’s job.
By JOHN FUND
Jerry Brown became California’s governor two months ago with a clear plan to balance the state’s $26 billion deficit: call a special election this June in which he would ask voters to approve a “compromise” plan that combined spending cuts with higher income, sales and vehicle taxes.
But Monday appears to be the deadline for putting such a measure on the ballot, and Mr. Brown still hasn’t secured the votes of enough GOP legislators. Republicans complain that Mr. Brown is asking Californians to pay about $1,000 per family each year for the next five years without making the kind of structural changes in public pensions and regulations that will lead to long-term solvency. For his part, the governor complains that too many of them won’t step away from the anti-tax pledge issued by Grover Norquist’s Washington, D.C.-based group, Americans for Tax Reform.
…
Jerry Brown became California’s governor two months ago with a clear plan to balance the state’s $26 billion deficit:
What ye be the price of:
“Our house is worth $xxx,xxx.00″
+
I’m in “Shock & Awe”… they’re still makin’ heroin and selling it!
I really feel for Jerry Brown. IMHO, he is a very decent, honest man who really wants to do what’s right for the state. I hope the idiot politicians stop their games for a bit so that we can finally try to fix the state’s budget problems.
Sleep beckons…
The Happynomics of Life
By ROGER COHEN / Published: March 12, 2011 / Op-Ed Columnist
…But the case for trying to measure the happiness of a society, rather than its growth and productivity alone, has become compelling. When Western industrialized societies started measuring gross domestic product, the issue for many was survival. Now most people have enough — or far more than enough by the standards of human history — but the question remains: “What’s going on inside their heads?”
Little that’s good, it seems. Stress has become the byword for a spreading anxiety. This anxiety’s personal, about jobs and money and health, but also general: that we can’t go on like this, running only to stand still, making things faster and faster, consuming more and more food (with consequent pressures on prices); that somehow a world of more than seven billion people is going to have to “downshift” to make it, revise its criteria of what constitutes well-being.
IMHO, if we disconnected ourselves from all our electronic gadgetry, many would suddenly and inexplicably become “happier.”
Of course, that would mean no more housing blogs, and I’m just not willing to give that up!