The Housing Bubble

The alternative to running the printing press on high blast whenever global markets are melting down would seem to be merely allowing stock prices to take the hit. Of course, that might put a dent into vampire squid bonus pay, but then stocks are supposed to be risky assets; not so much dollars.

Index Futures:
S&P 500 1,261 -30.00 -2.33%
DOW 11,731 -257.00 -2.14%
NASDAQ 2,229 -60.75 -2.65%
U.S. futures plunge
Wall Street is on track to join the global-market selloff in the wake of the Nikkei’s 10.6% decline in Japan.

“Printing money is a dilution tax on those who already own fiat currency or are owed fiat-currency denominated obligations. So far as I am aware, this is something the Fed never acknowledges.”

Phew

Thank god I don’t own any money!

Wait a minute,

I mean; i want some, but not in order for it to be stolen from me.

wait a minute,

I think its not money that I want. I really just want the ability to owe money and never hafta pay it back.

How can I do that?

Thanks in advance.

“I think its not money that I want. I really just want the ability to owe money and never hafta pay it back. How can I do that?”

Buy a house a HELOC it to the rafters?

Oh wait…

“Printing money is a dilution tax on those who already own fiat currency or are owed fiat-currency denominated obligations. ”

It is also easier to put this “new” (read diluted) money in the hands of who they want. If they taxed your money to do this you would be pi$$ed, so instead they just dilute it away.

“I think its not money that I want. I really just want the ability to owe money and never hafta pay it back.”

That requires membership in the Banking Clan.

“If they taxed your money to do this you would be pi$$ed, so instead they just dilute it away.”

The great financial engineering trick of the Ronald Raygun presidency was to fool the sheeple into believing their taxes were being reduced, while shifting the tax burdens away from income tax and towards the Fed’s printing press tax and the payroll tax.

do you think things would have been worse for joe 6pack had there not been a bailout?

Can anyone tell me one thing that the govt has done to improve the economy besides printing money?Does it take a genius to print money?

michael,

I think it would have been worse, much worse, for Joe 6-pack and everyone else, for a short time. That is almost a given in a society where so many businesses depend on credit to make payroll every week and you are faced with a situation which almost certainly would have dried up credit even more than it did in the last crisis. The question is what happens after that short term. If you look at Iceland, it looks like things have picked up nicely, but the US isn’t Iceland and perhaps an economy as large as ours wouldn’t react the same way theirs did.

I guess the one way to find out is to have another crisis and not do a bailout. We are close to being there politically (not being able to get a bank bailout passed in Congress) though I’m not sure we are all the way there. The question is will we get another real crisis on which to try it out? Not sure. And the fake bank accounting rules are already in place. And the Fed is doing its own form of bail out that messes around with the results of Congress not doing one. There is a very good chance we will never know.

By the way, I am not hoping for a new crisis, obviously. Comment was just about the possibility of finding out what would have happened without the bail out. I don’t think we can know what it would have been long-term and I don’t think we will ever find out.

Michael / Polly

Very good question.

I think if they only back stopped on the first one instead of letting it fail their assistance would be targetted then to only those in the act of failing which would have required more due diligence of each failing bank’s true finances. I don’t think it would have changed anything but it would have been better structured (that was the way Morgan did it in 1902?)

Structural changes in the economy are what the problem is all about and private industry is starting to sort out their share - without much help from the “saved banks” (capacity utilization rates are all up - some back to normal).

We could have another “meltdown” of the stock market because of the artificial boosting it is getting from QE2 and certainly more aggravation from the housing sector but industry is starting to get it’s feet underneath it without relying on diddly squat from any government.

I sure hope we don’t go back down. Time will tell.

Because the bankers paid for the government.

I think the hundreds of nuclear powered ships and submarines pose a greater threat. Containment doesn’t work as well when the container can sink.

On the contrary, sinking anything nuclear into hundreds of feat of water is one the best things you can do (unless you are a little sea pig who lives on the bottom of the ocean). Lots of cool water to dissipate heat and block radiation.

New generation nuclear like Pebble Bed Reactors are passively safe. Every worker could go home, every safety system fail, and it will naturally stop producing energy. That is the system we need. I work in and out of nuclear plants and have seen how old some of this technology is up close. Some have been extended past their planned life with NRC waivers. The country needs to retire the 60’s technology in favor of PBR.

Thanks for your insights, Mike.

We’re talking about a leaking nuclear power plant here, we’re not talking about the effects of global thermo-nuclear war.

Well, yeah, it does take a little longer.

If one were to prioritize the risks in his or her life, death from a nuclear accident would be WAY down on most peoples’ list.

Stay out of cars and stay out of hospitals.

“death from a nuclear accident would be WAY down on most peoples’ list.”

I think you’d find that some Japanese folks might disagree with you right about now.

Progress will continue, and nuclear power will be part of that progress.

New plants = lower risks, better designs. Even the old plants have proven to be incredibly safe and reliable. The one really -big- mistake that occurred (Chernobyl) was caused by really really really stupid operator error and a potentially flawed design that has no similarity to plants here in the US.

In the end, we need power and nuclear plants provide a LOT of power. Getting rid of nuclear plants doesn’t exactly solve much. You can’t go take Palo Verde offline and still provide enough electricity for Phoenix without massive investment in some alternative. I’m sure we’d all love to see our cities powered by the wind and sun and pixi dust, but the reality is the costs just haven’t hit competitive yet. If Palo Verde were offline they’d just slap down a bunch of coal plants and be done with it - and we wouldn’t be better off for it.

That said, I wouldn’t go move in next door to a nuclear power plant, or a coal plant for that matter. There are some pretty funny pictures of some of the “bubble suburbs” that were built at the height of this last housing boom, with palo verde (the largest capacity nuclear power plant out there) hovering over them in the distance. Hilarious.

Radiation in the steam that escapes the plant lasts 7 seconds?

Not sure how the cloud of death would work. If the diesel generators were on stilts and didn’t get flooded, it’d be cool.

I heard that plant was scheduled to be shutdown in 1 week. How’s that for bad luck?

A friend of the family was one of the Atomic Veterans. He was a PR officer for the USMC back in the days of above-ground nuclear testing in the United States.

He died a few years ago, and it was from a cancer that was caused by his service-related exposure to radiation. According to my parents, it was a horrible death.

call it nuclear poop.

Bulbs which last a long time, I’ve two that have followed me through three condoze - they’ve outlasted furniture, clothes, and even paint/decor.

“-Or pay extra for fluorescent light bulbs…”

There’s a pretty fast simple payback period associated with efficient, non LED lighting. Fluorescence is not required for this short SPP nor is it required by law.

CFL

“Creepy Freaking Light”

Saves energy, yeah, but some of them give your room all the warmth and abience of a WWII Nazi torture lab.

The ones from IKEA aren’t too bad, i.e., good for a shop, garage or portch, but not the bedroom or living room IMO.

DOC

Aw c’mon, Doc. I have CFLs in all my table lamps and they are fine. They emit a nice warm yellow-y glow. These aren’t your parents’ CFLs.

Gotta admit I am not looking forward to the extinction of incandescents though. There are some situations where a CFL simply won’t work. Maybe there will be great improvements or expansion of the LED product line within the next couple of years.

Aw c’mon, Doc. I have CFLs in all my table lamps and they are fine. They emit a nice warm yellow-y glow. These aren’t your parents’ CFLs.

My CFLs aren’t creepy in the slightest. I also like the fact that they don’t throw off the heat that incandescents do.

I find the key to pleasant CFL lighting is dark lamp shades. I notice more and more lamps are now coming with darker shades, I presume for this reason. It used to be you could only find white shades on many new lamps, which do nothing to warm the starkness of the light from CFLs.

I don’t want to focus on CFLs because, again, they are not required by the new efficiency laws; however, there are two types of CFL, the whiter, harsher, bluish light and the softer, yellower light and there is a big difference in the type of situations in which these bulbs should be used.

HINT: do not use the blue in the bathroom!

“they are not required by the new efficiency laws”

Maybe the are not “technically” required by law, but practically speaking they are.

CFLs are the only reasonable-cost replacement that meets the efficiency standard. LEDs currently cost from ten to twenty times as much, which makes them not an option for most people.

If there is only one reasonable-cost bulb that meets the standards required by the law, that bulb is essentially required by law.

“HINT: do not use the blue in the bathroom!”

p.s. I’m not a hater of the technology, only the law that mandates them.

I have many CFLs in my house. But I avoid using them in any rooms that I am only in briefly, such as the bathroom. Before they’ve even finished warming up, I’m turning them off. Which also dramatically reduces their life.

Why would I want to pay two or three times as much for a bulb that won’t last very long in that setting, and which also isn’t turned on enough hours of the day for the energy savings to be meaningful?

Different bulbs have different “best uses”, and I should be able to choose the right tool for the job.

I was working on a pinball machine in my apartment and a CFL equipped lamp fell. It broke. Do I need to call hazmat?

PIC certainly my habit is similar. The vast majority of lights in my house are flourescent. The exceptions are like your case used infrequently for short periods of time, like closet lights, and a few low amp halogens, ’cause I like their light much better for reading.

Link: CFL Cleanup

Tape is your friend for picking up the dust. You do not want to sweep it up into the air, where it can be inhaled, or travel to other locations.

Try duct-tape, masking tape, or even packing tape if you don’t have either of the other two.

“CFLs are the only reasonable-cost replacement that meets the efficiency standard. LEDs currently cost from ten to twenty times as much, which makes them not an option for most people.”

Dammit, no! There are incandescent light bulbs that will fit the 30% energy efficiency bill. Link

So you’re saying CFLs are the way to go, MrBubble?

“So you’re saying CFLs are the way to go, MrBubble?”

I got a good chuckle out of that. It feels as though I am banging my head against the wall!

MrBubble, thanks much for the link. I honestly had no idea that so much research was going on in incandescents due to the efficiency mandate.

I hope they continue to make great progress.

While the results look promising, I did the math based on the quotes in the article, and concluded that at the current approx 20X premium, they would still be a “losing” proposition, costing far more than they will ever hope to save on in their lifetime. The recovery would obviously be different, and more advantageous in some locations with more-expensive electric rates.

Still, I’m glad to see the gains in efficiency… Good to know.

Yes, thank you, Mr. Bubble.

While at least half of our bulbs are CFLs, I really prefer the incandescent bulbs.

Good to know we still have hope!

Yes, nuke power can play a role in such a transition and it’s a transition that we can agree that we would both love to see occur as soon as possible.

Besides, there’s only so long that we can play in that sandbox before something really does blow up.

And Cheney consumes a lot of health resources and ammunition -

That is not accurate. The worst part of the Chernobyl disaster was avoided when they enclosed it in “the sarcophagus”. It could have been much worse. And apparently the sarcophagus is in seriously bad shape. We are not done with Chernobyl yet, not by a long shot.

“We are not done with Chernobyl yet, not by a long shot.”

Yes, but try explaining that to some yobbo who has been so corporately indoctrinated they think it’s a good idea to power the planet with a nuclear fission. Shows you how low bottom is, intelligence wise. No one has yet made the connection between Chernobyl and the low birth rate in Russia. Yes, their immigrants are still fertile. Give it a couple of generations.

Low birth rate could be due to many factors, including rampant alcoholism and economic depression. Chernobyl may be a contributor, but you can not blame it for all of the low birth rate.

“No one has yet made the connection between Chernobyl and the low birth rate in Russia. ”

Or maybe that has more to do with Russia becoming more like all other 1st world coutnres and as people get better educated and medicine they stop having babies? Or is cernobyl responsible fo teh low birth rate in america, japan, and most of europe also??

ANd Chernobyl was a BAD 50 year old Russian design run by morons who intentionally diabled safeys to see what would happen.
And as for wiping out all life, the exclusion zone has become a hell of a wildlife refuge, granted with a much higher birth defect/mutation rate, but that will sort itself out. Not that its good for long lived humans, but its hardly wiping out all life.

And as for corporate yabbo, what do you suggest for providing us with electric power? Or do you live in a yurt and drive a horse to work?

Really? Aren’t you in the camp that thinks Iran shouldn’t have nuclear material? If so, what’s the problem?

I’m suggesting that there are safe, clean energy alternatives and I don’t understand why people insist on sh*tty, dangerous crap. (Actually I do, but won’t get into it here)

Over the years I’ve done a lot of reading about suppressed technologies. I’m not going to list out all that stuff here, but it goes well beyond solar and wind.

People who suggest safe, clean and cheap are regularly hooted down as being nutjobs. The real nutjobs are those who defend and deal in dangerous, dirty and expensive.

“… it goes well beyond solar and wind.”

What are these technologies? (I’m not trying to be argumanitive here, I really want to know.)

Tesla electro-magnetic and advanced battery technology for starters (and I’m not talking about the Tesla model care).

And that’s as far as I’m gonna go here. If you really want to know, you can do the reading and research.

Nuclear power has always been like the guy who’s time is so valuable that he passes a semi on a curve, at the top of a hill, going 20 mph over the speed limit. Always.

It is cheap “alternative” energy only to those who cannot do math, or the charlitans who place no value on the immense up front energy inputs required, nor the risks, nor the abatement costs so far down the road.

Not sure about telsa electro-magnetic, but advanced battery techolgies are used for the storage of electric power, not for the generation of electric power.

I beleve telsa is used in the distribution (not generation)of electric power, is it not?

You are correct combo. It takes ENERGY to generate electricity. Energy from combustion, fission (and maybe someday fusion), wind, solar, ocean waves, geothermal.

Did I leave any significant energy sources out?

Palmetto -

You mention Tesla Electromagnetic and I’m not sure what you’re actually talking about.

He of course created a whole bunch of electro-magnetic motors, the likes of which produce power from Niagara Falls and power the blender on your counter with incredible efficiency. Clearly the AC motor has become a commercial success.

He also attempted to build a method of power transmission, electromagnetic towers, but this was a method to -transmit- electricity, not a way to actually produce it.

As for advanced batteries, outside of the few obvious examples (Chevron buying the patent for the sorts of NiMH automotive batteries that drove the Rav4 EV and GM EV-1 and subsequently killing the production of such), I don’t really see an advanced battery design being “surpressed”. Even in the obvious examples like the NiMH mentioned above, those batteries were expensive and didn’t provide the kind of capacity of charge or speed of recharge needed to truly be breakthrough. The need worldwide for an advanced mega-battery (cheap with super high energy density) is HUGE, and if one is developed that company, and country, will make untold billions producing it.

That said, batteries only contain electricity already produced, so this still won’t solve the generation problem. In fact, super-amazing-batteries will only increase the amount of demand for electricity production. For example, the -only- thing making electric cars non-viable today is a cheap battery with similar properties to gasoline (in terms of energy density and speed-of-recharge). A breakthrough super-capacitor or battery could solve this and make electric cars viable quite literally overnight. Adding millions of electric cars to the roads is going to massively add to our electricity generation needs. Good luck filling that capacity gap with anything -but- nuclear power.

Sorry, I have yet to hear of a “suppressed” technology that isnt smoke and snake oil.

What are these technologies? (I’m not trying to be argumanitive here, I really want to know.)

I have heard it said that Tesla discovered cheap energy-producing devices that George Westinghouse “hid” so that he could charge for electricity.

According to these stories, Tesla was a mad genius with a heart of gold who wanted everyone to benefit from his discoveries. Edison and Westinghouse were evil capitalists who weren’t interested in “free” anything.

TO the best of my knowledge from reading a biography of him, he creates EVERYTHING to do with electricity, as well as cheap ways to transmit it, but nothing truly revoloutionary for power creation.

I want one!!

“…wanting energy to be safe, clean and cheap.”

Your specifications are impossible to meet. It is easy to be “against everything” and far more difficult to craft real solutions. Please try to think in terms of a practical solution. Solar and wind are not that for the forseeable future. Clean coal technology, natural gas, US based oil exploration and development, and yes nuclear are the practical solutions on the table.

“And I am one of them. I have this peculiar habit of wanting energy to be safe, clean and cheap.”

just like project management…you get to pick two.

“Your specifications are impossible to meet.”

I’ll just let that hang out there.

“…wanting energy to be safe, clean and cheap.”
It’s good to want things….

i want the world to be like star trek.

Oh, hahahaheeheeheehohoho, that’s so cute and funny and snide and arch, tickety-boo!

As I’ve said on this board, it’s not really the banksters, or the politcos, or the illegals, or whatever. It’s yer so-called friends and neighbors that make life a living hell.

“It’s good to want things”. Well, that just stops it right there and solves it all, doesn’t it, Jim?

People wanting things makes it possible to transmit a snide comment across the ethers and put someone down for desiring something decent.

“i want the world to be like star trek.”

oooh, that’s just SUCH a cute lil’ response. Let’s not have anything good. Let’s not strive for decent goods and services, no sirreeeeee! Can’t have that now, can we?

Feel good, Jim? How ’bout you, michael? Make your day to put down people who want or strive for something decent?

i’m not putting you down…i just think (for now) you are being a bit irrational.

So wanting something decent is irrational?

BTW, when I tried to warn folks about the housing bubble, I was thought to be irrational.

Striving is one thing. Waiting around to win the lottery, or wishing for a candy crapping unicorn to magicly solve your problems is another thing. “The perfect is the enemy of the good.” - Voltaire. Or in this case the enemy of the possibly least bad.

“Waiting around to win the lottery, or wishing for a candy crapping unicorn to magicly solve your problems is another thing.”

Gee, Jim, I just went over this blog with a fine tooth comb looking for where I said I was waiting around to win the lottery or waiting for a candy crapping unicorn to solve my problems. Or where I said anything even vaguely resembling that.

Non-sequitur statement.

But hey, I’ll play. When the bell rings, the air outside will turn green.

As my dad would say, “Want something in one hand and take a dump in the other. See which hand fills up first…”

When a country that is built on cheap energy doesn’t have a cogent energy plan and doesnt spend any research money on energy outside of vote getting ethanol, what did we suppose is going to happen. Unfortunately,as tree hugging as I am, I agree with the PM “pick two” scenario.

It also sound as though Palmetto is confusing energy resources and energy currency up above. Tesla and the Energizer bunny can’t save us. That humans can produce 100w and that we draw 300-1000W in our house means that we have the energy equivalent of 3-10 energy slaves toiling in our basement and that doesn’t even include the energy from our trip to Australia. How long do we think that this can last?

Got muscle?

Well, “safe, clean and cheap” energy seems rather less likely than winning the lottery. After all, people DO win the lottery.

“people DO win the lottery”

Funny. I’ve always wanted a news piece on each of the people who DID NOT win a lottery. Maybe then people would understanding probability and expected value!

Oh, hahahaheeheeheehohoho, that’s so cute and funny and snide and arch, tickety-boo!

Someone needs to pull Palmy’s fuel rods - I think he’s melting down.

I looked at a MSM news clip on youtube and they had a nuclear radiation logo on fire on half of the screen, and then an aerial shot of the reactor on fire on the left. Main stream media is freaking people out with awesome cut scene graphics.

The thing is, I’m NOT asserting that nuclear plants are “safe.” They’re characterized by the sort of combination of very rare, but chatostrophic failures that we, has humans have a hard time estimating and understanding. But silly “end all life on Earth,” statements just make questioning their safety look like the work of chronic NIMYmeisters.

“Want something in one hand and take a dump in the other. See which hand fills up first…”

What’s the difference? People seem to want what’s in the hand they dumped in, so that’s what they get.

A coal plant goes down and you lose electricity.

A nuke plant goes down and you lose a few zip codes.

I’ve been a proponent of nuclear power, but I seriously need to re-evaluate.

A coal plant DOESN’T go down, and people downwind are exposed to cancer-causing heavy metals.

It also doesn’t help that the information coming out of Japan is spotty at best, that new things are happening every five minutes, and that the nuclear industry itself never bothered to standardize their vocabulary. It’s very difficult to assess anything if there are six types of “containment,” eight types of “meltdown,” and several dozen types of explosions.

You got that right oxide.

The language is just as poisoned as the fuel in the reactors.

It doesn’t help that the news must go on with or without understood facts. We all have access to Wikipedia, that doesn’t give us insight. I have had the rare opportunity to actually watch some news on TV over the weekend and found it amusing that Japanese looking professors were pulled onto the stage in the US to tell us about what was happening in Japan. What theatre.

Exactly, disregard anything in you heard in Western Media until the dust is settled. When is Anderson Cooper going to report that Japanese have started eating human flesh?

“When is Anderson Cooper going to report that Japanese have started eating human flesh?”

as soon as someone…anyone…calls him up and tells him “omg…the japanese are eating human flesh.”

And the news media is INTENTIONALLY trying ot turn this into a nuclear disaster. THey way they are phrasing everying is to make it sound like thousands have been killed due to radioactivity.

True.

palmetto…I agree with you that wanting something like cheap safe energy is the beginning of maybe making it possible . I still think they could perfect sun energy in the future ,at least for the sun belt states . Solar is pretty big in Hawaii in spite of it not being as efficient as it could be . I don’t see why industry couldn’t put solar cells on the top of buildings . I think wanting something is the beginning of innovation .

“I think wanting something is the beginning of innovation .”

Thanks, Housing Wizard. That’s my thought. Well, I guess it was my day in the barrel. There are worse things to be in the barrel about.

Wind and solar are just fine. However electricity cant be stored (forget about battery storage on a sufficient scale)so…you have to have an alternate back-up to full required capacity, when the “wind aint a blowin n the sun aint a shining”.
So it’s either nuc,coal,ng or geo thermal. Wind/solar will always be an expensive feel good back-up.

I think wanting something is the beginning of innovation .

Yes!

Probably just for refueling, not decommissioning.

Yep…Has been for 10 years and counting….

Grass is even worse in the desert. I can understand having it for the golf courses and the parks, that’s fine. Not sure why anyone out here would chose to put it in their yard, you have to mow it and you have to use a $hit load of water. One other unintended consequence of grass in the desert is scorpions, just ask anyone who lives adjacent to one of those pretty green belts…scorpions love water.

Aha! The sloth is right again! (And he’s disappointed that no one will do his research for him.)

Hollywood would never lie. What was I thinking?

“People who live in an oasis must manage land and water use carefully; fields must be irrigated to grow plants like dates, figs, olives, and apricots. The most important plant in an oasis is the date palm which forms the upper layer. These palm trees provide shade for smaller trees like peach trees, which form the middle layer. By growing plants in different layers, the farmers make best use of the soil and water. Many vegetables are also grown and some cereals, such as wheat, barley and millet are grown where there is more moisture.”
Wikipedia
–

Of course, I guess those are old-world deserts.

Massive disasters do tend to focus the collective mind on what needs to be done, and also to realize the necessity of a large government response, without worrying about the ‘bad precedent’ it might create, or whatever phantasm the governmental nihilists are pointing to.

Much like after Pearl Harbor, when suddenly almost no one had an objection to a massive increase in government spending, dwarfing what had been called unsustainable by many on the political right just the day before. (This massive spending also, coincidentally, ended the Depression.)

‘a compelling case for gov’t led investment’

‘realize the necessity of a large government response’

‘after Pearl Harbor, when suddenly almost no one had an objection to a massive increase in government spending, dwarfing what had been called unsustainable by many on the political right just the day before. (This massive spending also, coincidentally, ended the Depression)

Sometimes, these sort of comments string inaccuracies on top of myths with illogical connections throw in to the point that it’s a waste of time to respond.

Well, how would the minimal government that many call for react to a massive disaster like an earthquake and tsunami?

Round up the church volunteer groups?

And there’s no denying that the previously ‘unsustainable’ debt levels many worried about during the Depression were greatly increased during WW2. Which coincided with the end of the Depression.

I would also like to know the answer to that question. Seriously, these are the types of things we need to discuss when talking about the role of government and taxes.

True, even for “American” cars. We’ll see how these JIT supply chains hold up.

And speaking of American cars (or cars in general) I browsed some of our local car dealers inventory online to get an idea of what the new generation of compact cars goes for. So I first checked out the Chevy and Ford dealers:

Chevy: Their cheapest cars were the lowly and tinny Korean made Aveo: $16K. The new “world car” Chevy Cruze compact: Some as high as $23K.

Ford: The new Fiestas were near or above 20K. Ditto the older Ford Focus.

So then I checked the local KIA dealer. Same story. Well equipped hatchbacks and subcompacts were pushing the 18K mark and some were higher. Most of their SUVs were pushing 30K or higher.

Then I went back to the Chevy and Ford websites to checkout the larger sedans. 30K+. Bigger SUVs were 40K-50K.

No wonder cars aren’t selling. The average price for a new car is more than what half what the work force makes in a whole year.

yes it ridiculous brother

I have been looking at the aveos. I am going to buy used after talking to a couple crooked dealers.

Looking for a 2009 with manual transmission.

No wonder cars aren’t selling. The average price for a new car is more than what half what the work force makes in a whole year.

Meanwhile, bicycle shops are doing a brisk business. And I think I know the reason why. It’s been said that around 80% of the world’s population can afford a bicycle, whereas the percentage of people who can afford a car is in the single digits.

What cracks me up is that the people buying those cars new assume my wife spent way more than them for her 40k mile $26k Mercedes. She gets comments all the time along the lines of how it must be nice to be rich. It’s just silly because she didn’t spend any more than they did even though yeah…her car was $70k new.

“bicycle shops are doing a brisk business”

I read that bikes have sold out in Japanese shops, given their ability to transport you when the trains are down and there’s no gas.

Many people recommend a bike in your survival gear.

Working Bikes here in the Windy City collects bikes for donation to distant lands as a means to increase mobility. They fix up discarded and donated bikes and sell enough locally to help keep the operation up and running - the rest go into a container for use overseas. For those that like to tinker - it’s a great source for steel frame brutes.

While last in Tokyo I was drooling over the offerings at a neighborhood bike shop because they favor simple straightforward designs. Over here the main stream bike shops are packed with prententious stuff that is impractical for year ’round daily commuting. Finding a decent single speed ride requires going to used shops or specialty shops.

I have to say, most Americans like their bikes the same way they like their cars - with all the bells and whistles - and added cost!

“What cracks me up is that the people buying those cars new assume my wife spent way more than them for her 40k mile $26k Mercedes.”

As durable as new cars are it just makes sense to find a nice, clean 3 year old vehicle. While used cars are holding up in price, a 3 year old car still has 80% of relatively trouble free life left and depending in the make and model it might cost as little as 50% of what the new model costs (my only concern with getting an out of warranty German car would be the repair costs).

“She gets comments all the time along the lines of how it must be nice to be rich.”

We get the same comments regarding our MINI, even though it costs the same as a comparably equiped Ford Fiesta.

“I have to say, most Americans like their bikes the same way they like their cars - with all the bells and whistles - and added cost!”

There is a big difference between those heavy $100 bikes they sell at WalMart and a higher quality bike that you would purchase at a bicycle shop that cost $300+.

Hey Slim–
I found a non-stolen replacement hybrid/commuter bike off of CL. It’s a battle-ship gray, 2006 Speicalize Sirrus with a Topeak rear rack, bike computer, dual clipped/regular pedals, extra clipped pedals and front light for $300! That almost replaces the stolen Trek 7.7 with the same rack, computer and crappy front light. The only thing I’m bummed about is losing the new Salsa rear wheel with some bullet-proof, kevlar tire.

Now to the question: do you know anything about road bikes? I took a test ride of a steel 2009 Bianchi Imola and it was amazing. If you know anything about abuot this type of buke, I’d love your thoughts.

Cheers,
MrBubble

“Over here the main stream bike shops are packed with prententious stuff that is impractical for year ’round daily commuting. Finding a decent single speed ride requires going to used shops or specialty shops.”

If you are going 20 mi on a regular basis in and around SF and are a… large mammal, single speed doesn’t really cut it.

I still find that 2/3 year old cars are priced very high. Especially if you need to finance and can qualify fir 0%.

Now to the question: do you know anything about road bikes? I took a test ride of a steel 2009 Bianchi Imola and it was amazing. If you know anything about abuot this type of buke, I’d love your thoughts.

Sounds like a very nice ride! If the price is right for you, buy it.

BTW, Bianchi makes a very good bicycle. I don’t recall a time when they didn’t.

20 plus in SF?! Yeah, you’d need speeds for that and good components. I can relate to your loss on the rear wheel/tire combo. Mine use custom built wheels that are worth more to me than the frame. Sadly a lot of theives muss up the wheels when they strike.

As the accessories, I only wish my environs were safe enough to have them. They even pull off bells and cheapo mud flaps here. My lights are attached to my pack otherwise they’d be gone too.

The price on the Bianchi went down another $200 in the last month, so it’s in range now. It’ll be the first time with clip in shoes and the first time since I was 15 using drop bars. I’ve been doing my “I’m interested but not at this price” looky-loos, so I’m going to try to get the bike fit included in the price, or a rake off on the shoes, or something. It’s a local shop, so I want to buy from them, but I think that I can haggle some since it’s an older model.

I avoid most hills in SF, ’cause I’m pretty lazy, but some you just can’t avoid like getting up to the GG bridge either way. My “rule” is that if the sidewalks are actually stairs, I can walk my bike up the street!

I’ve got one of those cheap ($70) walmart bikes everybody hates on. It was cheap and I needed it right away. Six years later it still works fine- all 15 gears work, the brakes and tires are ok. What am I missing out on? (I don’t really ride off-road, other than to cut across my lawn, or the like.)

If I was going to spend near $500, I’d get one of those bikes with the tiny electric motors. Now that’s a bell/whistle I can enjoy.

There is a big difference between those heavy $100 bikes they sell at WalMart and a higher quality bike that you would purchase at a bicycle shop that cost $300+ ??

All my life I have ridden bikes that were entry level…Never spent more than $200. for one until recently…Yes, I bought a very expensive bike…It weights 26 pounds and is very, very fast…All out for me I can get to 24 mph…Others fly by me doing over 30….

I’ve got one of those cheap ($70) walmart bikes everybody hates on. It was cheap and I needed it right away. Six years later it still works fine- all 15 gears work, the brakes and tires are ok. What am I missing out on? (I don’t really ride off-road, other than to cut across my lawn, or the like.)

If your Wal-Mart bike was properly manufactured and assembled (two big “ifs”), it will probably do you just fine.

However, I can recall being called upon to all but rebuild Wal-Mart bikes due to improper assembly and manufacture. Sometimes, my fellow mechanics and I could get ‘em running okay, but that was all. Running well didn’t seem to be within the realm of possibility.

I got a cheap-o Walmart many years ago. On its maiden voyage, I stood up, cranked on the pedals and immediately taco-ed the rear tire. I was playing college football at the time, so I was heavy and strong, but still!

Walmart bike = soap-box derby car

$500 commuter = Ford Escort, gets you where you want to go but you wouldn’t want to cross the USA

$1000 road bike = Audi A8, comfy, fast, heavy (comparatively to more expensive bikes), needs repairs

$10000 racing bike = Bugatti, light, fast, and you’re either on the US racing team or you have too much money and are showing off.

Just MHO of course.

“I still find that 2/3 year old cars are priced very high. Especially if you need to finance and can qualify fir 0%.”

It depends on the make. For instance, say you’re thinking of a used GMC Acadia. You’ll find that its twin, the Saturn Outlook, is much cheaper in the resale market,

“BTW, Bianchi makes a very good bicycle. I don’t recall a time when they didn’t.”

Glad to hear they have your seal of approval, Slim! I just bought a 2009 Bianchi Volpe myself for my upcoming tour. My old mid-80s steel-frame bike that I love just doesn’t have the right gear ratio for hills/mtns. The friend who had said he was going to help me make it right for the trip kinda flaked on it after 6mos of delay. So, next best option… I’m happy with the one that I found.

Now, just gotta figure out panniers. Any tips there, Slim?

Plastic garbage bags in cheapos, or pricey dry-bag models?

“No wonder cars aren’t selling. The average price for a new car is more than what half what the work force makes in a whole year.”

Eggs-actly.

Now, just gotta figure out panniers. Any tips there, Slim?

Plastic garbage bags in cheapos, or pricey dry-bag models?

Back when I was touring, those pricey dry-bag models didn’t exist.

And one of the Murphy’s Laws of touring is that you’ll get stuck out in a rainstorm that will defeat any waterproofing that your panniers have. Hence the need to line them with plastic bags. Gar-bazh bags were my favorite.

“Now, just gotta figure out panniers. Any tips there, Slim?”

I’m not Slim or slim, but I went with Nashbar panniers. They have a dry bag insert, tons of pockets and convert to backpacks by zipping off the backing. One zipper is a bit messed up after it fell off over a big bump b/c I did not tighten the “grippers” enough, but they are pretty good.

Two $0.02

I avoid most hills in SF, ’cause I’m pretty lazy, but some you just can’t avoid like getting up to the GG bridge either way. My “rule” is that if the sidewalks are actually stairs, I can walk my bike up the street!

True story: November 1981: After crossing the Golden Gate Bridge on my bike and on foot, I found myself in the Presidio district. Where I attempted to scale a hill. I think I lasted less than a block before I had to dismount the bike and walk it.

Thanks for the tips!

“One zipper is a bit messed up after it fell off over a big bump b/c I did not tighten the “grippers” enough, but they are pretty good.”

I think that will be my #1 criteria: they stay attached firmly, and they stay out of the spokes.

I have a vague recollection from my childhood of the intersection of panniers, schoolbools, and spokes. That’s one I want to avoid…

Dry-bag construction would be a nice-to-have but is way less important that good attachment, I think.

I’d probably kill myself on a fast bike. I’m better off lumbering along on my clunky walmart special.

I’d get a lot more speeding tickets if I owned a ferrari.

“One zipper is a bit messed up after it fell off over a big bump b/c I did not tighten the “grippers” enough, but they are pretty good.”

I’m going to put this down on mostly user error. I have since cinched down the bands that help to tighten the hooking mechanism and haven’t had a problem. But I’m not shilling for Nashbar either.

The last time I checked the price of plywood, I was floored.

Wait, I just got the joke!

I was floored ??

Or laid…

was floored ??

Or laid…

Coming up next: A joke about getting laid on the floor.

The people I used to love back when I worked around cars were the parents coming in to buy their precious darling child a car.

Parents of modest means (not wealthy by any measure) picking out brand new 20,000$ honda civics.

Absolutely silly.

My first car was a 1976 mercury montigo I bought from a neighbor for 100$ - and it was in the shape expected of a car you buy for 100$. It got me around for 40,000 miles, and taught me how to properly maintain and manage the various crisis encountered as you own and operate a motor vehicle.

I can’t imagine parents spending 20,000$ on a car for their kid - pick something reliable, 10 years old, that has modestly low miles for it’s age. Spend a bit of cash doing a bit of preventive maintenance (a general tune-up, new tires if needed, that sort of thing), and call it good.

Someone once harassed me about the car my wife was driving when she was still in college (a saturn SL2). I’d just replaced the whole engine (she ran it low on oil and I wasn’t paying attention that month), and he was mentioning how I should have bought her a japanese car with better reliability. I explained that considering the price difference between her car and the -cheapest- of similar year/mileage jap cars, I could replace that engine another 8 times or so and still come out ahead (my local “south of border mechanic” slapped a motor in there for just shy of 700$, and it’s still going strong 55,000 relatively trouble-free miles later).

“Coming up next: A joke about getting laid on the floor.”.

Well it has to be better than getting nailed on the roof.

I bought a car for my son when he got a job that was too far and too late for me to feel good about him biking. It was a 10 year old Camry that had body damage. I figured he would do some of his own and that I could get a good-running car for a lower price. An added benefit was that the local constabulary kept a close eye on him for me.

The Camry was well rated for safety and got decent gas mileage.

To each his own.

Thank you Buford.

Are you a Used Home Seller? If so, I apologize for any nasty remarks I may have made about your profession; these are merely for entertainment value and not meant to be taken personally.

PB
No way am I a UHS. I switched from Accounting to Mall Mgmt, and my firm paid for U-San Diego’s ICSC Mgmt School. I’m licensed for leasing purposes, and I trust a UHS as far as I can throw one. I cut a deal with a UHS Broker for a rebate due to my license. He’s lying through omission, which is driving my EE hubby and I nutso. Not to worry, I’m in your court.

Well, do you guys buy anything at the restaurant, or just use their facilities?

There are quite a few well-heeled runners who like to patronize the restaurant after they’ve zipped around Downtown. Heck, they can afford it. You should see the outfits that some of them wear. We’re talking many hundreds of dollars spent just on the shoes.

The owner of this restaurant also operates a market in the same complex of shops. It also gets quite a bit of business from the Monday night walking and running crowd.

Which is why I fail to understand why we’re being exiled to the Amtrak station. It’s as if we’re suddenly not good enough for the restaurant/market bathrooms.

No money, no flushee.

But you still can’t use the can for free, bucko. What are you, a commie?

Classic. That one is a keeper.

And he said that in Jersey! Bi-winning.