Bits Bucket for March 23, 2011
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
April 2024 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
I imagine there will be plenty more dollar houses available, if don’t just tear them down.
Motor City population declines 25% ~ USA TODAY
DETROIT — Detroit’s population plunged 25% in the past decade to 713,777, the lowest count since 1910, four years before Henry Ford offered $5 a day to autoworkers, sparking a boom that quadrupled the Motor City’s size in the first half of the 20th century.
The Motor City’s 237,493-resident decline helped make Michigan the only state to experience a net population loss since 2000.
According to 2010 Census figures released Tuesday, the city lost, on average, one resident every 22 minutes between 2000 and 2010. Detroit officials plan to challenge the figures.
“Personally, I don’t believe the number is accurate, and I don’t believe it will stand up as we go through with our challenge,” said Mayor Dave Bing, a Democrat.
“The Census has a history of under-counting residents in urban cities like Detroit. We were under-counted in 2000, and the Census estimate was again revised in 2007,” Bing said.
Demographers were less optimistic the city could get the figures changed.
“You can talk about under-counts, but it’s going to be very difficult to prove and they are going to have to go to the courts,” said demographer Kurt Metzger, director of Data Drive Detroit, a non-profit data research firm.
Census counts are crucial because the numbers are used to distribute more than $400 billion in federal funds to local and state governments each year and to make decisions about what community services to provide.
“According to 2010 Census figures released Tuesday, the city lost, on average, one resident every 22 minutes between 2000 and 2010″
I was in Detroit once, it took me longer than 22 minutes to get out. But not much longer.
I was on a road trip through Detroit back in 1981, and it already looked like a bombed-out city back then. I can’t begin to imagine how desolate it looks 30 years on.
One of my very first personal projects of a photojournalistic sort was to document Detroit while on a day trip with a University of Michigan classmate. That was back during Thanksgiving weekend, 1978. Even then, the city’s decay was well underway.
I still have the photos, and they’re hard to look at.
Where are your numbers Bing, where are your numbers!
Bing has to go to Google to get the numbers …
budump ba!
I’m curious… Is this population decline only for the city limits of Detroit? Did their suburbs gain most or all of that population is there an exodus from the metropolitan area?
The whole area is leaving to find jobs.
Good question. According to wikipedia, the Detroit metropolitan area had 4,490,000 people in 1970, 4,441,000 in 2000, and 4,403,000 people in 2010.
So, a slight decrease over the years, but it looks like Detroit’s population loss has mostly gone to the ‘burbs. Makes it kind of a non-story, really.
Its still a story. The area is becoming like a donut.
At some point the city becomes uneccesary.
A lot of cities have had “donut holes” for a long time.
“Inner city” areas like the south Bronx, east Saint Louis, parts of Newark and Bed Stuy. Mostly overlooked by gentrifiers.
Has anyone ever read Joel Garreau’s “Edge City”? Older book (1992) about the development of suburban live/work hubs.
“At some point the city becomes uneccesary.”
They are arguably the relics of a no-longer-existent heavy manufacturing economy, that required large groups of people in a single area.
Now they’re either rusting away, or becoming adult disneylands.
Bloomfield Township, a suburb of Detroit, is one the wealthiest suburbs in the nation along with Grosse Point.
Detroit - let’s see.
1. Controlled by the democrats for the last 60 years - check
2. Has passed every insane liberal program - check
3. Totally controlled by public unions - check
4. Thinks the answer to all problems is to raise taxes and government programs - check
AND
NO ONE WANTS TO LIVE THERE…
cause and effect.
Yet the second largest state (Texas) with the second largest state deficit has been controlled by Republicans for decades.
Your point?
Property Taxes Reach the Breaking Point ~ Business Week ~
Local governments are raising property taxes to plug budget gaps as home values fall—and voters are getting sick of it
It really costs to own a home these days. Not only have home values fallen, leaving nearly one-quarter of residential mortgages under water, but also, local governments around the country have increased property taxes to make up for declining revenue from other sources.
Homeowners now give a slightly bigger portion of their earnings to property taxes—which mainly go to public schools, with the rest going to government operations and other public services—than before the recession. The Tax Foundation, a Washington (D.C.) research organization that advocates for lower taxes, estimates that 3.5 percent of household income went to property taxes in 2009, compared with 2.9 percent in 2005. The median property taxes paid on homes increased to $1,917 in 2009 from $1,614 in 2005.
How much is too much? In Miami-Dade County, taxpayers have had enough. Angered by a property tax hike amid plunging real estate values, as well as a pay raise to county employees and a new $600 million stadium for the Florida Marlins, 88 percent of 204,500 people voted to oust Mayor Carlos Alvarez in a recall election on Mar. 15.
Miami-Dade residents pay the most property tax in Florida: a median $2,600 per year, according to the Tax Foundation, citing the average median real estate taxes paid annually from 2005 to 2009 in U.S. Census Bureau reports. Last year, Mayor Alvarez pushed for a 14 percent property tax rate increase to help fill a $444 million budget hole.
“It’s not proper to increase taxes by $178 million [in] this community—while over 50 percent or close to 50 percent of [homeowners] here owe more money than their homes are worth,” Norman Braman, the billionaire car dealer who led the recall effort, told reporters.
Aw, where are the “silver lining” stories from 2008? The agents told us that falling prices would lower the tax burden on properties - thus offsetting at least some of the loss for the buyer/owner.
Yeah, what exactly about your house’s lower price makes a school district any cheaper to run loanowners?
Yeah, what exactly about your house’s lower price makes a school district any cheaper to run loanowners?
what about houses’ higher prices made them more expensive to run, such that they keep to keep prop tax receipts at peak levels????
two can play this game…
Well yeah, that’s the point. That’s why they shouldn’t have waited until now to connect the dots.
EXAMPLE:
3/23/11
The Daily Herald reports: For the first time in 40 years, the overall value of property in DuPage County has dropped — by almost 6 percent — a reflection of a housing market that has plummeted in the past few years. But DuPage County Clerk Gary King says homeowners can expect to pay more on their property tax bills because tax rates have climbed. The average tax rate for DuPage’s 372 taxing bodies has increased 11.6 %.
My property tax bill in AZ dropped by 40% in 2011. And that’s not uncommon at all. You can go to the Maricopa County website and look up any parcel you want. Valuation is also less than half of what it was at the peak. Not sure if the shortfall is being made up elsewhere or if it can be absorbed by cuts. Either way, I’m glad to see local governments here are figuring out a way to make it work in the new reality.
Yeah, sure looks like different local governments are choosing differing ways on how to handle the issue, but the salient point is that the decline in revenues from lower assessments does need to be “absorbed”. So whether a county chooses cuts or increasing the levies - something’s gotta give. There’s no free ride (printing press) for them.
Silver continues to make my home renting principals rich.
One principal has a net worth of over $15M dollars mostly in silver stocks/bullion.(One day I will quote troy ounces because the $ will be irrelevant.)
Said principal rents their domicile for $500/month.
I love aggressively intelligent people.
Perhaps if the American sheeple put down their Ipads for a moment we could achieve the same result…
AMSTERDAM (AP) — Jan Hommen, the chief executive of ING Groep NV, says he will voluntarily give up the euro1.25 million ($1.78 million) bonus he had been awarded for 2010 and other managers will do the same.
Hommen’s planned bonus, which was to add to a euro1.35 million salary, conforms to revamped compensation guidelines, but news of the payout was greeted with public outrage and customers threatened a boycott. Hommen said ING underestimated the negative public reaction, adding Tuesday he didn’t want to hurt the bank’s improving image.
ING has paid back half of the euro10 billion in state aid it received in 2008, and plans to repay the rest in the coming two years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ING-bank-CEO-gives-up-18M-apf-3441233104.html?x=0&.v=3
“Perhaps if the American sheeple put down their Ipads for a moment we could achieve the same result…”
I was thinking more along the lines of their smart phones. Sometimes I think I’m the only person in the nation who doesn’t have one.
You’re not. Smart phones create dumb people.
I’m sure most of you have seen this already, but its still funny as hell. She’s trying to sue the mall, obviously one of the security guards put this on youtube. I hope she gets her ass handed to her in court.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPW8xmI4w6U
That was the best way to start a Wednesday EVER!
I’ll bet she has a driver’s license too!
I am not against smart phone if it does not charge extra monthly fee.
I call mine the HBB phone.
You’re not. Smart phones create dumb people.
Every time I see someone walking around, talking on a cell phone (be it smart or dumb), I say to myself “Someone’s making money on that call. And it’s not you.”
One of these days, I’ll get up the nerve to say this to one of those “smart” phone users.
I was thinking more along the lines of their smart phones. Sometimes I think I’m the only person in the nation who doesn’t have one.
The numbers (sorry, I don’t have the link) show that only 25% of wireless phones are “smart” phones.
It’s probably just that they get all the hype that makes them seem more ubiquitous.
They do get the hype because they are the money makers. It doesn’t cost anymore to transmit to a smart phone that it does a regular cell phone.
For proof, look at Clear’s 4G system.
And here I was thinking about opening an ING Direct account. Time to just keep on thinking…
State unemployment benefits in the cross-hairs
cnnmoney ~ March 23, 2011
The jobless may soon find their state unemployment check is not in the mail.
A growing number of states are looking to cut back on jobless benefits to minimize the increase in unemployment taxes businesses pay. State officials are concerned that these tax hikes could deter companies from hiring.
Some states, such as Florida and Arkansas, are debating reducing the number of weeks that the jobless can collect state unemployment. Others, including Indiana, want to limit the number of people eligible for benefits.
The changes generally would not affect the nearly 4.3 million people currently receiving state benefits. And, for those who qualify for state benefits, the proposed measures shouldn’t have an impact on their federal unemployment benefits, which can last up to another 73 weeks.
The problem stems from the massive increase in jobless claims during the Great Recession. The surge drained state unemployment trust funds, forcing states to borrow from a federal fund to cover their 26 weeks of unemployment benefits.
Some 32 states now owe $45.7 billion to the fund, and could have to pay about $1.4 billion in interest this year. The burden will fall mainly on businesses, which will have to pay more in unemployment taxes.
This wouldn’t be the first time states reduced benefits. During the 1980s recession, states took out $28 billion in loans, adjusted for inflation. More than 40 states subsequently cut payments and eligibility.
Fewer checks coming
In Florida, those laid off after Aug. 1 could receive six fewer weeks of benefits, if a bill that recently passed the state House of Representatives becomes law.
I still think whats fair is you get 26 weeks to be a lazy, boozin couch potataoE but on the 27th if you are not in school or some intern program you get cut off…
As far as I know, being in an internship causes you to get cut off. If you are “working” as an intern, you are not available to take a job and/or not looking for work so you are not eligible to collect unemployment.
Same thing for going to school full-time, though I think limited part-time (that you could still maintain while working a full-time job) should be OK.
Anything else is an exception to the general rules.
That means their next budget problem will how to deal with rising crime and overcrowded jails.
And headlines about how many people in their state are eligible for food stamps.
Realtors Are Grossly Incompetent
and some have unsightly facial hair.
Gas is getting expensive enough to raise the question of buying gas vs renting it.
I bought a locking gas cap for my Saturn VUE.
Last week-end I worked evenings and while is was occupied elsewhere somebody siphoned a few gallons of gas out of my gas tank.
Darned tank-squatters.
I read an article where they don’t even bother withe the cap anymore, they just drill a hole directly in the plastic tank with a cordless drill. Saves getting a mouthful of gas as well.
Wowch!
Is it me? Drilling and gasoline seems fraught with peril.
so next time they’ll pry off the locking cap from the filler neck resulting in a much greater expense?
Maybe. But to do so would take a lot of time and make a lot of noise which might be enough to deter them.
So long as there are plenty of other cars WITHOUT locking gas caps in the lot, you should be okay.
I wonder if there’s a locking gas cap national sales chart somewhere?
Maybe plenty of other cars Have locking gas caps too?
All I know is some People have said, written that they wished they had not used the locking gas cap after finding out how much it cost to get it fixed.
I imagine prying a cap off could be done rather discreetly, quietly and quickly, but I don’t know for sure.
Soon enough they’ll just pop a hole in the bottom of the tank?
Also, in some cases I think it depends more on where you park and how you park.
I wonder if there’s a locking gas cap national sales chart somewhere?
Maybe plenty of other cars Have locking gas caps too?
Lots of cars have a release inside for the lid over the gas cap.
This all reminds me so much of the “gas shocks” of the ’70’s.
We had gas stolen out of a couple of vehicles in our driveway. All the vehicles now have locking caps. It won’t stop a determined criminal, but will hopefully deter the opportunistic thief.
I thought seriously about leaving a half full gas can out in the driveway overnight… half full of a gasoline/sugar mix, that is.
I thought one couldn’t siphon gasoline from contemporary cars. Isn’t there a flap valve or something to prevent it?
“I bought a locking gas cap for my Saturn VUE.”
Which one do you have? 1st or 2nd gen? The 1st gen was a rather popular model in the Centennial state, especially when equipped with AWD and the Honda V6 powertrain (2004-2007).
My folks put locking gas caps on their cars back during the energy crisis of the 1970s. ISTR that mom, who’s now the only driver in the family, still has a locking cap.
Most modern cars are already designed with anti gas theft fill ports.
“Gas is getting expensive enough to raise the question of buying gas vs renting it.”
Fortunately you don’t have to buy gasoline until you actually need to use it. We are finally getting some nice weather albeit sporadically so I am once again riding a bicycle to work.
On the other hand, my monthly health insurance premiums (no dental or vision either) cost more than my mortgage, and we are generally healthy.
If you are generally healthy you should self-insure and buy a major medical plan for the low probability events like getting hit by a dumptruck. The premium savings will pay for alot of doctor’s office visits.
I am living proof against that advice.
Are you willing to share details, MrBubble?
(BTW, did you see my late “thanks for educating me” response on the incandescents thread? I really didn’t know there was so much R&D going on in that space.
The medical expenses the can BK you are the uncontrolled risk things that aren’t generally covered under a Catastrophic Health Plan. It’s the middle stuff like Glaucoma Surgery, a curable Cancer, etc… Catastrophic Plans cover hospitalization but don’t include tests, office visits, treatments, etc…, on an outpatient basis that can add up to some big $.
We are ranked 37th in the world for a reason. We earned it.
(BTW, did you see my late “thanks for educating me” response on the incandescents thread? I really didn’t know there was so much R&D going on in that space.
I did not. Glad to contribute any little bit. I know that it’s not much!
Are you willing to share details, MrBubble?
Stats in August: late thirties, avid biker, recently lost thirty pounds, non-smoker, moderate drinker, occasional “extra-curriculars” at band practice one at week, non-fast food/soft drink eater was admitted to the hospital with chest pain. Owing to my atrocious family history (paternal uncle had MI at 39, paternal grand dad died of thrombosis at 49, maternal grandmother had a heart attack in her 30s) and low levels of troponin (a heart cell death marker), I was catheterized (heart, not johnson). The hospital had just changed insurance policies at midnight, but there was a screw-up and we got a bill for $68,000 (it was covered eventually).
I had to go in a month later when my 50% stenosis in my LAD became 95% for a cath and stent (another 68K?). Since then, I haven’t felt much like exercising so I put all the weight back on. But I know that exercise is the best option, so I’m back on the bike.
Oh, yeah, I got lithotropsy for a huge kidney stone a month later.
Funnily enough, I had to go to the ER in Australia, but we have a reciprocal agreement with them, so everything was covered.
I was going without insurance for two months after my school insurance ran out. I figured that I was pretty healthy. Got married and was under her health care for two months before the SHTF.
She got a lemon, but we’re trying everything we can to give each other 40 years. Yeah, I know, “Talk to me in 10 years!”
MrBubble
None of the labs in my piece of fly-over country are “group members” of the available medical plans, so the out of pocket expenses can climb fast. Anything serious, and we drive to Seattle for care where it’s comprehensive and higher quality care.
Yikes, sorry to hear that, MrBubble!
Wow. I know little of what a Major Medical policy would cover; anyone know whether it would it have covered those bills?
The problem with the self-insurance route is that the premiums are still going through the roof. And, if it’s not the premiums, it’s the deductibles. They’re not exactly going down either.
Even bigger problem is that this system still leaves you at the mercy of the private health insurance industry. And that’s an industry that isn’t known for being merciful.
Like beer, you already rent it.
Ok, now this sounds like a potentially catastrophic development:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tokyo-warns-on-radioactive-iodine-in-tap-water-2011-03-23?dist=beforebell
But hey! Charlie Sheen might get his job back.
Florida officials admit they have just been handing out money to anyone who makes a UE claim:
When lazy, overpaid, government workers don’t do the job they are being paid to do should we, um, fire them all?
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/os-verifying-job-hunt-20110322,0,4791108.story
This is the first I’ve heard of anyone anywhere ever checking up on the job search efforts of a UE recipient. Sure they TELL you to keep a log, and it seems most folks really do, but no one seems to follow up. I had two friends on UE in 2009-2010 (both since have found work), and they didn’t even have to produce their log when they applied for extension after extension of bennies.
Then again, I’ve seen a lot of “blind” jobs ads in the past that requested resumes be sent to a PO box or an internet address, usually set up by the newspaper that sold them the advertisement. Although those employers could be tracked, it would require a lot more effort and expense on the government’s part.
The there’s the Internet. Easy enough to produce a log of jobs applied for on -line.
So do military members support Obama more, now that he’s proven he will let them “express theyself” better?
“express theyself”
1.Do US Soldiers voluntarily make a “promise” of serving America or an “oath” ?
2.Is there a problem with US service members honoring their Nations citizen-elected “Commander-in-Chief”?
Now they can put “Nobama” bumper stickers on their tanks?
An F-16 would look cool with a “Change it back” paint job.
Navy/Air Force pilots love to bomb places. Especially places that can’t shoot back so well.
Sitting at home watching tv is not what they prefer.
Hwy, what I mean by “express they self”
Is engage in the activity they have trained and prepared for:
break things and kill people.
“Ya’ll” can’t call him a pussy anymore?
If this is a question of machismo, I’d rather they all grow thick hairy mustaches.
Ohh, I thought they could act gay and stuff.
Found out my brother in law is being sent to Germany and then Libya later this year. So much for a short operation.
Max
Godspeed to your BIL. Regardless of how I feel about our govt (clears throat), I thank him for serving this once great country.
Sent to Libya itself, or a ship off Libya? Got a link, or is this top secret?
No link. He’s just a guy getting deployed which happens all the time so it doesn’t make the news =) It’s my wife’s, sister’s husband and I don’t have a lot of details, but he’s Army so probably not stationed on a ship. He’s done tours on the ground in Iraq (both wars) and Afghanistan.
I guess it’s not too surprising that we’d have a presence there regardless of whether or not there are active military operations going on. Was probably a presence before all this started. Came as a surprise to me as I was under the impression that we were providing very short term support and not committing troops. Appears that may not be entirely true. At least not the way it has been presented to the public so far.
This pisses me off. I thought it was going to be a few-day operation of taking out some aircraft so the Libyans could finish off Qaddafi themselves? Or is the US nationbuilding again? The Libyans started this mess, they can finish it. Any word on the French and British?
“Or is the US nationbuilding again?”
Wouldn’t surprise me. Once we bomb them to smithereens we can help with the “reconstruction”, ’cause that’s what we do. Of course by the time we get to that phase, the Libyans (all of them) will hate us, so they’ll be setting out to destroy whatever is built.
Stop me if you’ve seen this movie before.
Part of playing empire is the conditioning. We have been so conditioned that we barely question Goldman Sachs management moving directly into top treasury or defense department positions.
So true, and therefore doesn’t that raise significant questions regarding what right the US has to lead the world to “democracy?”
We were supposed to kick it off, then the Brits and French were supposed to carry the load.
Now, the Brits, French, Italians, etc. are suddenly finding reasons they can’t come out and play. So looks like we are going to be left holding the crap-bag again.
What does this prove?
-The US = the kid with the “KICK ME” sign taped to his back.
-Obama is French.
Why do economists pride themselves in picking bottoms?
U.S. housing market bottom may be a year away: Case
A foreclosed home up for auction is seen in the Queens borough of New York, February 24, 2009. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
Credit: Reuters/Shannon Stapleton
By Julie Haviv
NEW YORK | Wed Feb 25, 2009 10:45pm EST
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. housing market slump is nowhere near over and home prices will probably keep falling well into next year, one of the property market’s best-known economists said.
Karl Case, the co-developer of a widely watched gauge of the housing industry, told Reuters that the hard-hit U.S. housing market has gone from being the primary source of the U.S. economic recession to one of its biggest casualties.
“Never say never, but it is looking increasingly probable that we will not see a housing market bottom until next year,” said Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College in Massachusetts.
“If the housing market was independent of the economy, we would be getting closer to a bottom, but that is not the case and we have a horrible economy,” he said in an interview late on Tuesday.
…
Is it just me or did they give up on 2011 pretty quickly? As I recall, the eCONomists nursed their bottom calls for 2009 and 2010 considerably deeper into each respective year. Are they learning or are they just flocking to 2012 because they think the pols will be handing out candy again?
“Never say never, but it is looking increasingly probable that we will not see a housing market bottom until next year,”
BWAAAAHAHAHAHAAAAAHAHAHAHAAAA….
Awesome flashback, PB. I remember when he first came out with that statement, and we ridiculed him here on the HBB.
Don’t forget, he’s an FB, so his opinion is heavily influenced by the wishful thinking / wishing price that seem to go hand in hand.
“If the housing market
was independent of the economyhad not been artificially propped up, we would be getting closer to a bottom[...]”Fixed that for ya, Case.
Why do most eCONomists even have jobs?
I personally find bottom picking rather appalling.
Bloomberg
Goldman Sachs’s Hatzius Says U.S. Housing Market Near Bottom
March 17, 2011, 3:33 PM EDT
By Vincent Del Giudice
March 17 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. housing market is “close to the bottom,” said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York.
“The valuation of real estate is much more reasonable now,” Hatzius said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “Over the next few years, the housing sector is going to improve.” For now, “there’s still a lot of excess supply out there,” he said.
…
Does that mean that he is predicting mortgage interest rates and underwriting standards to start falling again?
I think it means he enjoys picking bottoms — not that there is anything wrong with that.
Goldman Sachs?
Tells you everything you need to know right there.
Listening to GS is no different than listening to any other sales organization. What they tell you may be true, may be false, may be irrelevant but it will always be one thing - in the interest of the organization.
No need to even think about buying until 2015 or so.
Experts Finally Catch Up To The Housing Double Dip
Posted: March 23, 2011 at 5:49 am
MacroMarkets, an economic research firm, released its new survey of 111 people who are experts on home price trends. “The survey is based upon the projected path of the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index over the coming five years,” the firm said. Those asked said they do not, on average, see a bottom to home prices until 2013 and no real recovery of prices until 2015.
…
“…and no real recovery of prices until 2015.”
Are they counting on a Weimar style stimulus plan?
What do they really mean by recovery of prices ? They certainly aren’t talking about recovery to boom prices are they, because no chance
by 2015 ?
Maybe they just mean that prices will start to rise again, from wherever they’ve bottomed out. I agree it’s an unclear term.
Something about a “real recovery” occurring in only two years’ time (2013-2015) sounds fishy in and of itself. That study out of CA that suggests something like 2025-2030 sounds more like it.
John, that is so way past people’s attention spans.
* PLOTS & PLOYS
* MARCH 22, 2011, 6:59 P.M. ET
Breaking News From WSJ.com’s Developments Blog
No Spring Seen In Housing’s Step
Survey Says Home Prices Won’t Bottom Until 2012, Predicts 1.4% Fall in 2011
U.S. home prices won’t hit bottom until next year, according to a quarterly survey of 111 economists and other housing analysts by MacroMarkets LLC. The survey shows how economists have continued to delay their expectations for a housing recovery.
The analysts expect home prices, as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, to fall an average 1.4% in 2011. The survey was conducted during the first two weeks of March. By contrast, in last June’s survey, economists expected prices would gain 1.3% this year.
“The sentiment among our expert panel regarding the U.S. housing market outlook continues to deteriorate,” said Robert Shiller, the Yale University housing economist who co-founded MacroMarkets.
…
Does this bottom apply to markets like DC? Rents are so damn high that buying - even at DC prices - is becoming cheaper than renting.
DC prices continue to amaze. I look at arlington and cringe.
Maybe better next year…
Nothing like living in the belly of the beast.
If buying becomes too much cheaper than renting, doesn’t that incent investors to buy-to-rent, thus increasing the rental stock and putting downward pressure on rents?
If rents go down, then housing can go down that much more and still be in equilibrium.
If you want to live inside or just outside the D.C. beltway in NoVA or Montgomery County, buy now or be priced out forever.
As I’ve said before, it took ~6 years after the S&L disaster for RE price to bottom out.
” Detroit could probably use another Eminem boost following Tuesday’s news that it lost 25% of its residents from 2000 to 2010.”
http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/03/22/michigan.detroit.population/index.html?hpt=T2#
Mastodon found on a friends property finally made the news. I don’t know if all this wet weather will help extraction or hinder it.
One thing for sure out here in the west, if heavy rains continue it will highlight where not to buy and those who didn’t reduce their pricing because they didn’t want to give it away will be wishing they had.
Old lady on pm news last night lives in condo along the Carmel river and was complaining about just how dangerous it can be and how the news ignores that fact (river flood warnings are out). Wait until her neighbors shun her for lower their property values and increasing their flood insurance premiums.
saw that on the news last nite– pretty cool!
How is homebuyer sentiment shaping up as we enter the red-hot spring sales season? Will the recent news of an earthquake, tsunami, nuclear meltdown, broke state and federal governments, U.S. intervention in a Middle East civil war, and high food and gas prices put real estate investors into the proper mood for snapping up residential properties at fire-sale prices?
* March 21, 2011, 12:47 PM ET
Will Spring Lead to Sunnier Housing Data?
By Dawn Wotapka
Here’s more depressing data for the housing market: Sales of previously occupied homes in the U.S. sank by 9.6% in February and prices fell to the lowest level in nearly nine years, the National Association of Realtors reports.
The results came in below expectations, ending hopes that the four-year residential downturn — the worst since the Depression — is over. Still, as sister blog MarketBeat points out, this winter was brutal, which might have weighed on the data. That must have some investors optimistic: Shares of home builders are in positive territory, with Meritage and Hovnanian leading the pack.
If all this has you scratching your head in confusion, don’t worry. Industry watchers have mixed feelings about the spring selling season now officially under way.
Dan Oppenheim, Credit Suisse analyst: “We continue to expect further declines in the coming months, and think the lower existing home prices will pressure homebuilders to cut prices in order to compete, unless they are content with low volumes through the spring.”
…
lower existing home prices will pressure homebuilders to cut prices in order to compete
1 lb coffee = 12oz
1/2 gal O.J. = 42oz
$4.00 gas = 30 mpg+
3,475 sqf = 2,140 sqf
Greatly diminished expectations has momentum…
“1 lb coffee = 12oz
1/2 gal O.J. = 42oz
$4.00 gas = 30 mpg+
3,475 sqf = 2,140 sqf”
Quantity deflation sux…
Quart of hellmans mayo now 30 ounces
Half gallon ice ream now 48 ounces
6.5 ounce tuna now a whopping 5 ounces
when will they make a pound of pasta 14 ounces??????
I just bought a can or Knorr soup mix recently and on opening it found it to be less than 50% full of product… 5″ high can 2.5″ product?
I have heard the “helping the consumer see value” argument, but I wonder if a contractor tried this what would happen.
Hey you have only completed half of my roof and want to be paid? Well I wanted the bid to seem like a better value so I bid for the whole roof, but only deliver half see?
Personally I believe this is extremely disingenuous on the part of manufacturers.
You won’t see a thing.
Especially that framing that is 36 inches on center, the 2 inch thick concrete in the basement floor, and the engineered trusses made out of sawdust and Elmers Glue.
And to add insult to injury, the new smaller Skippy jar is shaped in a way that means it is almost impossible to get to the peanut butter at the bottom of the jar around the edges. Think very subtle dumbbell shape. Easy to access at the top, but not at the bottom. I know that making the jar symmetric is supposed to be appealing to the eye, but I’d rather be able to get at what I paid (too much) for.
Smaller ice cream cartons fit in the freezer better…
Japan earthquake, tsunami likely world’s costliest natural disaster at up to $309 billion
By Associated Press, Wednesday, March 23, 8:56 AM
TOKYO — Japan’s government said the cost of the earthquake and tsunami that devastated the northeast could reach $309 billion, making it the world’s most expensive natural disaster on record.
The extensive damage to housing, roads, utilities and businesses across seven prefectures has resulted in direct losses of between 16 trillion yen ($198 billion) and 25 trillion yen ($309 billion), according to a Cabinet Office estimate Wednesday.
The losses figure is considerably higher than other estimates. The World Bank on Monday said damage might reach $235 billion. Investment bank Goldman Sachs had estimated quake damage would be as much as $200 billion.
…
Less than half of TARP?
Sad day when disasters are more affordable than bankers.
Sad day when bankers cause disasters.
Sad day when disasters are more affordable than bankers.
I know it’s not nice, but I’m laughing at the above comment.
“…disasters are more affordable than bankers.”
Is there even a meaningful distinction to be drawn between disasters and bankers?
Yep, folks of all stripes accept that disasters can and do occur and that rebuilding is a given. OTOH, who puts their money into a savings account with the expectation that the bank’s policies and practices might someday put them out of work or on the street?
Sad day when disasters are more affordable than bankers.
Well said.
“Weapons of Financial Mass Destruction”
After TARP paybacks, aren’t we under $100 Billion net?
We’re also just now finding out out what happens when “globalization” and “just in time” meets production-stopping natural disaster of the world’s 3rd largest economy.
(dang phone)
Parts shortages across the board. Plant closings and importers not far behind. Massive lost revenue for airlines. Digital parts parts price increases.
Yeah, real smart.
* MARCH 23, 2011, 8:39 A.M. ET
BEFORE THE BELL: US Stock Futures Turn Lower; Oil Breaks $105
By Simon Kennedy
U.S. stock futures moved lower Wednesday as oil prices rose to slightly above $105 a barrel, with Adobe Systems Inc. in focus after the software group reported a jump in profit, but cut its revenue outlook following the Japanese earthquake.
Paring earlier gains, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 12 points to 11943 and Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures fell 2.10 points to 1286.20. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 fell 8 points to 2249.25.
The move came after modest losses for Wall Street on Tuesday, including a 17.90-point fall for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as oil prices rose on worries over turmoil in the Middle East.
Crude prices extended gains in electronic trading Wednesday. Light crude for May delivery gained 40 cents to $105.37 a barrel on Globex as air attacks on troops loyal to Libyan leader Col. Moammar Gadhafi continued.
The aftermath of the Japanese earthquake and the situation at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant also continued to worry investors. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average closed down 1.6%, extending losses in the final hour of trading after reports of higher-than-allowed levels of radioactive iodine in Tokyo drinking water.
…
Is Housing Really in Recovery?
Published: Tuesday, 22 Mar 2011 | 3:00 PM ET
By: Diana Olick
CNBC Real Estate Reporter
“Overall, the sentiment among our expert panel regarding the U.S. housing market outlook continues to deteriorate,” writes Shiller. “Now they are expecting only a weak recovery, and even that is not until 2013.”
This report comes on the same day that Fannie Mae’s chief economist put out a report claiming uncertainty in Japan and trouble in Libya will directly affect housing’s recovery, specifically citing rising gas prices.
“We expect home sales to remain soft in the near term, given uninspiring leading indicators,” notes Doug Duncan. It’s really uninspired and fearful consumers, though, that will stunt the recovery.
“They’re looking at the weakness in the economy, now battered by our relationship with Japan and a rise in oil prices, and they’re asking, is this a good time to borrow $200,000 to buy a house? I don’t think so,” concludes Duncan.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42216840 - -
“I don’t think so.”
I predict a bottom in MSM-favored experts’ housing market sentiment by next year.
I`ll take bids on bottom callers.
We will start the bidding at a 20% drop in house prices. now 20%,
now 20%, will you give me 20%?
20% bid, now 30%,
now 30%, will you give me a 30% drop in house prices?
30% bid, now 40%,
now 40%, will you give me a 40% drop in house prices?
40% bid, 40% going once, 40% going twice, SOLD!
To the expert in the back corner.
Now what year?
We will start the bidding at 2013 for a bottom in house prices……….
If the earthquake had hit Japan in 2005, what would they have said?
Two years out is always safe, isn’t it.
Over 300 billion of building materials to rebuild Japan, who have traditionally imported their building materials from CanUsa, will put pressure on costs of building in North America.
Time to get rid of the shadow inventory so the recovery process can get a legitimate start.
The bottom will be encouraged with those 400 properties being auctioned in Greensville. TD is a Canadian bank and they will not brook any nonsense by fake or partisan bidders so I expect those 400 prices to start a ground zero in that area.
Funny, Canadian banks are not allowed to sell foreclosures at less than market value, and to do so they always list the property immediately with a local RE broker. I don’t know why they are being able to sell the US properties for the highest auctioned bid.
Anyone know?
How prophetic!
MarketWatch First Take
March 22, 2011, 5:31 p.m. EDT
FDIC’s Bair nearly started a bank run
Commentary: Innocence lost: There’s no money in the vault
By MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The federal official who’s in charge of preventing bank runs in the United States almost started one as a young girl by loudly yelling, “There’s no money in the bank! There’s no money in the bank!”
When she was growing up in Independence, Kansas, she accompanied her father to the Citizens Bank each week. She admired the shiny bank vault door and imagined the bundles of crisp green bills and shiny coins stacked securely inside.
On one visit, she noticed the vault door was ajar. She slipped away from Dad and peeked inside the vault.
“I had the surprise of my life — no crisp greenbacks, no bags of shiny coins — just rows and rows of little metal drawers with numbers on them,” Bair related.
“’There’s no money in the bank, there’s no money in the bank’” I shouted, racing back to my father to forewarn him that someone had been absconding with his and other bank depositors’ hard-earned cash.”
…
Didn’t someone on the HBB cause a similar scene? Something about demanding 7% on his savings because the bank was charging that amount on loans?
That would be me.
I believe that on an earlier trip I (or maybe a sibling) had asked the same “how come there’s no money in the safe” question. My dad answered that most of the money was gone to the people who borrowed it (at 12%). And that the bank didn’t need all that money around all the time anyway. They only needed a little bit for people who asked for cash, and they had some way of figuring out how much to have so they didn’t run out in one day. Such was my introduction to reserve requirements, and I guess that was acceptable.
But when I learned that THEY made more money on my money than *I* made on my money, well my my, unleash the dogs of war.
RIP Elizabeth Taylor.
boy you’re old….news is when GaGa, LiLo ,Winehouse or Paris…kick the bucket our country will be in mourning….they will have to close down school for a day or two or when a dozen groupies attack Justin Beiber and he dies from severe physical exhaustion….in the back of a van
Did she marry anybody else in her final hours?
hugh heffner?
She was very attractive when she was in her glory days.She mad men tripping over their tongues.
I dunno. I was always thought Sophia Loren was the better actor.
Even this 51 year old could look at the classic photos and wish to look into the violet eyes of an exotic brunette. Where is she?
Ok Rich Lowry.
Does anyone else recall the days when anyone on the HBB who suggested the Fed was propping up the stock market was labeled a tinfoil-hat wearing conspiracy theorist? It now appears the Wall Street Journal has joined the tinfoil hat crowd.
The Fed’s stock market price support program is funded by a dilution tax on those with dollar-denominated savings or who are owed fixed dollar obligations (e.g. retirees on fixed-income pensions). The effect is a reverse-Robin Hood welfare-for-the-wealthy program to benefit the top 1% of the Ownership Society. Where in the Fed’s mandate does it state that one of their legitimate roles is to support stock prices?
* The Wall Street Journal
* AHEAD OF THE TAPE
* MARCH 23, 2011
The Fed Places Stock in the Bull Market
* By KELLY EVANS
When it comes to the U.S. stock market, what goes up apparently must not come down.
That at least is how the Federal Reserve seems to approach monetary policy these days. Officials are famously leery of intervening when the stock market looks frothy (or irrationally exuberant), but not when it is sinking. The stock market’s swoon last summer, after all, helped prompt the Fed’s current bout of government-bond buying.
As the June 30 end date for that $600 billion program looms, Fed officials have so far made it pretty clear they want to wrap it up as planned. Should a change be in store, they will have to start laying the groundwork pretty soon, lest markets be taken by surprise. That is why Fed watchers will be paying particularly close attention to speeches in coming weeks, especially comments from Chairman Ben Bernanke.
His next chance to drop a hint comes Wednesday, when Mr. Bernanke is scheduled to speak about community banking.
Still, any big pronouncements now seem unlikely. Whether that changes in subsequent speeches may be largely determined by the stock market.
Quite simply, the market has become a key Fed tool in boosting growth and (at least in theory) in generating jobs in the short term.
…
so do the big boys tank the market so they get more QE? They have the FED on puppet strings.
Its a wall street govt you know.
so do the big boys tank the market so they get more QE?
———————————————————————
Yea! A golden parachute on the stock market. Yea. The big boys all know how to fail spectacularly and get taxpayer money for doing so well tanking and failing.
Wall Street big boy rain dance: Crash the market, and precipitate a liquidity dump by the Fed…
Fed’s Fisher Says He Would Have Voted Against Bond Buying Plan
By Caroline Salas and Jeffrey Black - Mar 22, 2011 5:04 AM PT
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard W. Fisher said he would have voted against the central bank’s plan to buy $600 billion of bonds through June if he’d had a vote last year.
“I would have voted against QE2, had I had the vote,” the regional bank chief, who votes on monetary policy this year, said in a speech today in Frankfurt. “We’ve done a bit too much.”
Fisher said no additional monetary stimulus is necessary after the Fed completes its second round of bond purchases, dubbed “QE2” because it followed an earlier round of $1.7 trillion of purchases that ended a year ago.
…
Fed’s Fisher Says No More Stimulus Needed in U.S. After June
By Caroline Salas and Jeffrey Black - Mar 22, 2011 6:39 AM PT
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard W. Fisher said that no additional monetary stimulus will be necessary after the central bank completes its asset purchase program in June.
“No further accommodation is needed after June,” including by tapering the central bank’s purchases, the regional bank chief, who votes on monetary policy this year, said in a speech today in Frankfurt. “Doing so would only prolong the injustice that we have inflicted” on savers through inflation, he said.
…
“Doing so would only prolong the injustice that we have inflicted” on savers through inflation, he said.
…
Oh, darn. I missed my chance to kiss him last year. (He was a guest speaker at the University of Arizona business school.)
“Doing so would only prolong the injustice that we have inflicted” on savers through inflation, he said.
_Finally_, an acknowledgement of the Fed-funded War on Savers.
It’s only a matter of time before those on fixed incomes - seniors - figure out who is inflicting the sub one percent interest rates on them.
The Fed and Treasury has already made the financial sector whole and very prosperous while those on fixed incomes suffer with severely restricted interest rates. And on top of that they’ve saddled future generations with the bill of irresponsible lenders and borrowers.
2012 is right around the corner. Those who supported these things should be again swept out. Government has unapologetically represented the highest bidder instead of the people, for a very long time now.
We’ve been going back and forth for a century:
“I want to steer markets.”
“I want them set free.”
There’s a boom-and-bust cycle and a reason to fear it.
“It’s low interest rates.”
“It’s the animal spirits.”
* MARCH 22, 2011, 9:00 A.M. ET
2nd UPDATE: Fed’s Fisher Opposes Extension Of QEII After June
By Brian Blackstone and Nina Koeppen
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)–U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said he opposes any extension of the Fed’s asset purchase program known as quantitative easing after June, saying inflationary pressures are building “worldwide.”
“No further accommodation is needed after June,” Fisher said in a speech at Goethe University in Frankfurt, saying he would vote against new monetary stimulus should it come to the table. “We can no longer press on the monetary pedal,” he added.
Last week, the Fed voted to maintain its key lending target near zero and maintain its planned $600 billion in Treasury purchases through June.
Fisher has been skeptical of the program, dubbed QEII, saying two weeks ago: “I remain doubtful enough as to its efficacy that if at any time between now and June, it should prove demonstrably counterproductive, I will vote to curtail or perhaps discontinue it.”
…
Politics / Central Banks
Mar 17, 2011 - 11:48 AM
By: Robert_Murphy
Politics
As YouTube and other digital media move beyond computer-savvy young people into the ranks of even stodgy businessmen, these subversive outlets become serious problems for the ruling elite. This trend is epitomized by the radical change in the Federal Reserve’s image. In just a few short years, the Fed has transformed in public opinion from a mysterious, wise, and boring institution into a fascinating engine of corruption and comedy.
…
Every Breath You Take
Columbia Business School’s Dean Glenn Hubbard sings about wanting Alan Greenspan’s job that went instead to New Fed Chair Ben Bernanke.
Parody created by Columbia Business School students.
Glenn Hubbard made a bad impression on “Inside Job.” He needs a beat down.
Which by the way you can watch online for free via archive.org.
Thanks. I’ve been wanting to see it.
TYVM, Virginia Beyatch in Norfolk. I’ve bookmarked that movie. Looking forward to watching it.
RIP housing bubble.
market pulse
March 23, 2011, 10:00 a.m. EDT
February new-home sales dive 16.9% to record low
By Steve Goldstein
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Sales of new single-family homes slumped 16.9% to a record-low seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 250,000, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. The figure was far below the 290,000 that economists polled by MarketWatch had expected, though January’s sales were revised higher to 301,000 from 284,000. Compared to February 2010, sales slumped 28%. Every region but the West saw record lows, and in the Northeast, sales dropped by 57% compared to January levels. The median sales price dived 13.9% to $202,100, the biggest one-month percentage fall on record. The less-volatile three-month average to February was 295,000, compared to 307,000 in January.
The number needs to go negative (more houses bulldozed than built) before there will be any kind of recovery.
Where’s FDR when we need him?
Isn’t he buried in Hyde Park, NY?
People put their birthday homes on a year ago and maybe had one small reduction in price since. There are some that have never come down at all in 12 mos. In 2008 we saw continued reductions. People just wanted to get out from under the mortgage no matter what. Now it truly feels like a face off.
It’s hard for me to understand. Once we decided we wanted to be somewhere else we pretty much made it happen. These people do not fix serious issues nor reduce the price which leads me to believe they feel I should pay for their last 3 years’ vacations that they heloc’d onto their mortgage balance or the amount they already rolled into their target home they’ve already bought. But nope. Don’t really want to. Apparently other sellers feel the same.
I’m thinking the same. I remember the standoff from 2006 — I guess that was the subprimes. Now it’s the standoff from the second peak in the good ol’ Credit Suisse graph.
“…the subprimes.”
Wasn’t that a Motown group?
They were the backup singers for Suzanna (Researched It) Ross.
Did this make the cover of “Time” and “Newsweek” yet?
“Japan’s devastating earthquake and tsunami could cost up to $309 billion, making it the most costly disaster in the country since the end of World War II, the Japanese government said Wednesday.”
But seriously folks, that’s peanuts. The costliest and on going disaster is our banking elite strip mining trillions from the citizens of this country.
How much longer until the well runs dry?
This money’s my money,
This money’s your money,
From California, to the New York Island
From the redwood forest, to the gulf stream waters
This money, was made for you and me.
Fed’s Court-Ordered Transparency Shows Americans `Have a Right to Know’
By Bob Ivry and Craig Torres - Mar 21, 2011 9:01 PM PT
A Supreme Court order that forces unprecedented disclosures from the Federal Reserve ended a two- year legal battle that helped shape the public’s perceptions of the U.S. central bank.
The high court yesterday let stand a lower-court ruling compelling the Fed to reveal the names of banks that borrowed money at the so-called discount window during the credit crisis. The records were requested by Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News. In July, Congress passed the Dodd-Frank law, which mandated the release of other Fed bailout details.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke “now must finally understand that this money doesn’t belong to the Federal Reserve, it belongs to the American people and the American people have a right to know how their taxpayer dollars are being put at risk,” said Senator Bernard Sanders, a Vermont Independent who wrote Fed transparency provisions in Dodd-Frank.
…
This incident and the way it’s reported show how little accountability there is at the Federal Reserve.
‘Under the trial judge’s order, which the Supreme Court refused to reconsider, the Fed must reveal 231 pages of documents related to discount window borrowers in April and May 2008, along with loan amounts. After Bloomberg filed suit, News Corp. (NWSA)’s Fox News Network LLC requested similar records over a longer period of time and also filed suit. It stands to receive 6,186 pages of documents on loans made from August 2007 to November 2008. ‘
This is 3 or 4 years ago. That’s transparency? And note that there is no mention of ongoing data being released: ‘The Fed has to be held to higher accountability,’ Williams said. ‘It takes lawsuits like this to do that.’
So they have to be sued for every bit of data? Wow, we’ve really got the Fed worried. huh? Or is it even the Fed?
‘The Fed declined to appeal the case to the Supreme Court; the Clearing House Association LLC, a group of the largest U.S. commercial banks, asked the high court to intervene.’
Think about it; it takes a Supreme Court ruling to get some 3 year old data, that’s basically meaningless by now, from the central bank. Consider how far we are away from really transparency, much less an audit.
‘Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke ‘now must finally understand that this money doesn’t belong to the Federal Reserve, it belongs to the American people…’ said Senator Bernard Sanders’
I’m sorry Senator, the money does belong to the Fed. It says so right on the notes. It’s demonstrated by episodes like this, where they do what they want and don’t even feel obligated to report it.
If you want to do your job, and represent the citizens, get rid of this private, unaccountable organization. Put the US back in the US Dollar.
“It says so right on the notes.”
Exactimento, amigo, and this is where the problems start.
Bernie Sanders is a card-carrying Socialist. He would love nothing more than to get rid of EVERY private unaccountable organization.
Save your vitriol for the corrupt Senators who are slaves to the banks’ campaign money.
Darrell Delamaide’s Political Capital
March 23, 2011, 1:54 p.m. EDT
Time to stop the Fed-bashing
Commentary: Personnel, policy not a political football
Posted this late last night, worthy of a revisit–the vampire squid gets harpooned by credit unions:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703410604576217023625225138.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
Woo-hoo for the credit unions! (Disclosure: I’ve been a member of some credit union or the other for more than 30 years.)
Not as long here Slim, but now I’m an even more fervent supporter and customer.
Anyone who still has an account in one of the five megabanks mentioned in the article is at least a fool if not an enabler.
I hate banks. I’ve have since I found out the games they were playing with MY damn money 30 some years ago.
10 day delays on deposits while 0 day delay on payables.
Cashing the highest amount first so they could cause an overdraft and then charge the most of number of overdrafts.
Min deposits to avoid account fees.
Account identity security that was a joke.
Fees for every damn thing.
I switched a long time ago to a CU….. but you have to be vigilant with them as well, just not anywhere near as much.
Been a credit union member for over 25 years. Never charged a dime except when using our debit card when traveling overseas. Love the CU.
Red, White and Blue Chips
March 23, 2011, 11:28 a.m. EDT
February home sales ’shockingly bad’
“Shockingly bad” is how Weiss Research analyst Mike Larson describes the record low February new home sales. He blames, in part, low confidence and high gas prices.
…
Red, White and Blue Chips
March 23, 2011, 11:28 a.m. EDT
February home sales ’shockingly bad’
“Shockingly bad” is how Weiss Research analyst Mike Larson describes the record low February new home sales. He blames, in part, low confidence and high gas prices.
How about blaming high house prices? WTF.
I am reliving all the stress of 2008, too. Argh.
And the fact that half of the nation’s workforce earns less than $500 per week.
Not to worry. Citigroup said in their Plutonomy Report that our 75% consumer driven economy doesn’t need consumers!
How about over supply too?
How long from now until when MSM-favored economics ‘experts’ report that ‘real estate is the worst investment’?
March 23, 2011, 11:46 a.m. EDT
Dismal home-sales data tell us nothing new
Commentary: Housing likely to take years to recover
By MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Financial markets overreacted to the news Wednesday that U.S. sales of new homes fell about 17% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 250,000, a record low and quite a bit worse than the 290,000 rate expected by the MarketWatch survey of top forecasters.
…
I’m going out on a limb to make a bottom call: I predict that new home sales will reach a fifty-year low in 2011.
New Home Sales Fell in February to the Lowest Level in Nearly 50 Years
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: March 23, 2011
WASHINGTON (AP) — Sales of new homes fell in February to the lowest level on records dating back nearly half a century, a dismal sign for an already-weak housing market.
New-home sales fell 16.9 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 250,000 homes, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. It’s the third straight monthly decline and far below the 700,000-a-year pace that economists view as healthy.
The median price of a new home dropped nearly 14 percent to $202,100, the lowest since December 2003. New home prices are now 30 percent higher than of those being resold, twice the markup in healthy housing markets.
Builders have struggled to compete with a wave of foreclosures that has lowered the price of previously occupied homes. High unemployment, tight credit and uncertainty over prices have also kept many potential buyers from making purchases.
Last year was the fifth consecutive year of declines for new-home sales after they reached record highs during the housing boom. Economists say it could take years before sales return to a healthy pace.
…
“New-home sales fell 16.9 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 250,000 homes, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. It’s the third straight monthly decline and far below the 700,000-a-year pace that economists view as healthy.”
Too bad all those jobs were offshored (I seem to recall being told that “It would make America stronger”). People working menial jobs at Old Navy or Walmart don’t buy houses, new or used.
Bear, I’ll believe your prediction if it’s for almost all of the nation, but not for hot markets like *ahem* my market.
The DC price market alone is proof that the American Dream is a stable job, NOT a house.
You will get your turn in a couple of years, once budget tightening hits home.
Austerity will happen. I will lose my job, but I will be happy.
You have a great attitude, Bill.
Look who’s talking now about reining in moral hazard.
market pulse
March 23, 2011, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Bernanke: Moral hazard to be cut by Dodd-Frank
By Steve Goldstein
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — In a speech to community bankers in San Diego, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank was working on implementing provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act to make a safer financial system, including implementing new capital standards and the ability to resolve rather than bail out a systemically-important financial firm.
…
Look who’s talking now about reining in moral hazard.
I’m beginning to think that Ben is starting to think about other career opportunities. He hasn’t exactly had a winning record on getting us out of this economic slump. Ditto for keeping us out of it in the first place.
Slim’s going out on a limb: I think that Ben will be headed back to Princeton before long. Likewise, Tim Geithner. Back to NYC for him.
Look who
’s talking now about reining in moral hazardbeing required by law to rein in moral hazard.Fixed it for you. Sounds like this Dodd-Frank law wasn’t as bad as HBB thought.
(Yes, I know Dodd was a Friend Of Angelo. But he was pretty much forced to retire over it, and wrote a decent — so far — law on his way out. I’d say he’s shooting par.)
Gold and silver have taken another big jump, with Silver chomping at $37 an ounce today.
Ag blew past $37. Bought at $15 before the (first) financial meltdown. Lost most of the proceeds I made from the house sale in 2005 on subsequent “mal-investments”, so couldn’t back up the truck when it went back to $9. Ah well.
But what to do with the silver now? We can’t “take delivery” on the land that we want yet (we’d like to go back to one income plus small scale farming and child care). There’s nowhere safe. I still haven’t sussed out enough of combotechie’s argument to put it in cash and feel comfortable.
But what to do with the silver now? … I still haven’t sussed out enough of combotechie’s argument to put it in cash and feel comfortable.
I feel the same way. On any given day I feel uncomfortable with the savings I have in federal reserve notes or uncomfortable with the savings I have in PMs. I suppose so long as I don’t feel both at the same time I’m doing all right
I was thinking of selling half, waiting for the next crash and seeing whether PM will go with equities and buying back on the drop if that occurs. Maybe I wasn’t ready to listen/learn when the whole inflation/deflation battle was raging on the HBB a while back, so I don’t really have a clue as to how this is going to go. Up in flames, I believe, but how? With a bang of inflation or a whimper of deflation? Or is stagflation the consensus now?
Combo was fighting the good fight pro-deflation against the tide, sort of like Aladinsane and his gold-”buggery”. [He's laughing on a big pile of Krugerrands in NZ?] What ever became of that argument?
MrBubble
‘What ever became of that argument?’
For myself, it’s a waste of time trying to point out a 30 plus year trend to those who refuse to see it.
Ben Jones:
“For myself, it’s a waste of time trying to point out a 30 plus year trend to those who refuse to see it”.
Without a doubt it is indeed a waste of time.
“For myself, it’s a waste of time trying to point out a 30 plus year trend to those who refuse to see it.”
Ouch! OK, me dumb.
But I wasn’t really paying attention and this stuff isn’t in my wheelhouse. If anyone finds the time, I’d appreciate reading where I’m going wrong with the “thoughts” below:
I believe that I’ve seen real wages go down (mom and dad worked one and a half jobs with two kids and we have two jobs with one newborn with relatively the same crap).
The only way people have “kept up” (or simply bought more crap) is by taking on varying forms of debt/credit. This debt will be destroyed at some point when people default causing deflationary pressure (money out of the system)
But the FED has been monetizing debt, thus:
The value of the dollar is decreasing, as is EROEI, therefore energy prices have gone up.
Because of those two factors, food prices have gone up or package sizes have gone down (as has quality) in a stealth price inflation.
Those factors SEEM to be inflationary but not in the “usual” too-much-demand-not-enough-supply way.
What’s up? Stagflation? I’d rather not just “go with my gut” here.
It might also stop people arguing politics all the time!
MrBubble
“Without a doubt it is indeed a waste of time.”
Damn! Harsh day on the HBB. It’s not as though I’m just posting Faux news links or bloviating on things which I don’t really understand…
Don’t beat yourself up. I tried to follow that discussion and come to a conclusion, but I’m still not there either. Hard to argue with the loss of value in the dollar. It buys less food and energy than ever. On the other hand, if you conclude that trend will continue (inflation), you’ve also got to be able to explain how. We’ve “printed” dollars by issuing more and more debt over the past 30+ years. Will we still be able to “print” if people are no longer willing to buy our debt? What happens then? Is there another way the Fed can expand the money supply? Low interest rates don’t seem to do much. None of that worked in Japan.
In conclusion, I have no idea what will happen. Inflation is the trend, but the things that drove it may be coming to an end. Do we have to get one or the other? Could we just muddle along like this for the foreseeable future?
One final thought, another way we “print” is by having the Fed buy US debt with money created out of thin air. In theory, that can continue indefinitely. However, Mr Public is becoming more and more aware of what the Fed is doing to the dollar and it is very unpopular. Politicians that support this continuing may find it hard to get elected in the future. Then what?
Gotta say, I never thought this subject was a waste of time (sorry Ben).
And honestly, I still don’t know what to believe, either.
The fact that there was a 30-year trend during a 30-year period of increasing debt is not that compelling in terms of what the short-term future will hold, in a period when many are not paying their debts. The argument some were making was that the growth of debt was inflationary, and explained some portion of the inflation in the past; the corollary would be that we should experience deflation in the short-term as the debt goes poof.
The biggest problem I have with the “short-term deflation” theory is that BB is apparently willing to fight it with an unlimited about of money-pumping. And I’m not convinced that deflation can stand up to that force. The only limits on his ability to do so are political, and it is extremely hard to predict when a significant backlash will mount.
Where would I stash my cash? Wish I had a good answer to that, but I don’t. Not happy with where mine is positioned, but not sure what to do differently either.
I agree, neither side of the inflation/deflation arguement is particularly compelling. And the trend for the past 30 years reminds one of the housing bubble: it went up a long time before it abruptly changed trend.
And honestly, I still don’t know what to believe, either.
I’ll tell you what I see.
$4-5/gal gas unleashes a wave of technological solutions to energy. Energy needs met with a hodge-podge of wacky, yet workable solutions - solar-electric paint, freeway-divider turbines, fart-condensor canisters*, you-name-it.
A perfect storm confluence of supply - communications (internet), technology (garage mills and fabs more sophisticated than the machine-shops of the last 20 years) - meets global market.
When energy is cheap, the only thing that will be valuable is time.
*Okay, well maybe not that one
lavi - it’s methane accumulators.
It’s a question of speculation or conservative saving. If it’s speculation, well none of us know how high the PMs will go on this staircase to the moon (how stupid the Fedgov will be), or if it will drop like a rock on some trigger.
If it’s saving, and the PM is insurance, then you should have had a % of assets target. If your PMs are now way more than that % you could sell back to that target % and sleep well. $ low and PM high….sell high and buy low? If PMs keep going up, still good and take more off the table later. If PMs go down, replace position at a lower price.
Just a thought on a guilt/fear free position.
Bought at the $5 to $6 per ounce range back in the 90s. 400 oz at one time. Wish I bought 4,000 ounces back then.
Didn’t the GD consist of 4 crashes?
If so, were at the precipice of drop number two.
Duration. Duration. Duration.
By many measures we exceeded the expansion that led up to the GD. By some measures we have exceeded the pain of the GD already in the first step down. Tighten your seat belts!
Looking at the Kondratieve charts,it’s 1931 today.
AG Bondi rejects foreclosure fix plan for its “moral hazard”
by Kim Miller
Bloomberg is reporting this morning that Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi is among a handful of state attorneys general objecting to a nationwide proposal to resolve foreclosure problems with the banks.
Read letter here.
The story, which was posted at midnight, says a letter to Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller says the settlement offer “appears to reach well beyond the scope of our enforcement role, and, in some instances, far exceeds the scope of the misconduct which was the subject of our original investigation.
Miller, a Democrat, has taken the lead in the investigation into bank wrongdoing.
Bondi has had little to say about the investigation, which began in the fall with the widespread allegations of robo-signing of foreclosure documents and other wrongdoing. Her office has continued a state investigation into so-called “foreclosure mills” that was begun by her predecessor in office, but that is seemingly stalled in appeals court for now.
Bloomberg reports the key objection in the letter that contains Bondi’s signature is the “moral hazard” created by the proposal to reduce homebuyers’ loans because it “rewards those who simply choose not to pay their mortgage.”
Bondi representatives could not immediately be reached this morning.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/ - 84k -
Financial Winners & Losers
Bank of America: Financial Losers
By Maria Woehr 03/23/11 - 01:29 PM EDT
NEW YORK (TheStreet) — Financial stocks declined after Bank of America(BAC_) it was revealed that the Federal Reserve objected to the bank’s proposal on increase its dividend.
…
How DARE the Federal Reserve interfere in a bank’s independent business decisions.
“There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency.” ~ John Maynard Keynes
Who’s in charge? Germans pull forces out of NATO as Libyan coalition falls apart. ~By Daily Mail Reporter
* Tensions with Britain as Gates rebukes UK government over suggestion Gaddafi could be assassinated
* French propose a new political ‘committee’ to oversee operations
* Germany pulls equipment out of NATO coalition over disagreement over campaign’s direction
* Italians accuse French of backing NATO in exchange for oil contracts
* No-fly zone called into question after first wave of strikes ‘neutralises’ Libyan military machine
* U.K. ministers say war could last ‘30 years’
* Italy to ‘take back control’ of bases used by allies unless NATO leadership put in charge of the mission
* Russians tell U.S. to stop bombing in order to protect civilians - calls bombing a ‘crusade’
Deep divisions between allied forces currently bombing Libya worsened today as the German military announced it was pulling forces out of NATO over continued disagreement on who will lead the campaign.
A German military spokesman said it was recalling two frigates and AWACS surveillance plane crews from the Mediterranean, after fears they would be drawn into the conflict if NATO takes over control from the U.S.
The infighting comes as a heated meeting of NATO ambassadors yesterday failed to resolve whether the 28-nation alliance should run the operation to enforce a U.N.-mandated no-fly zone, diplomats said.
Yesterday a war of words erupted between the U.S. and Britain after the U.K. government claimed Muammar Gaddafi is a legitimate target for assassination.
U.K. government officials said killing the Libyan leader would be legal if it prevented civilian deaths as laid out in a U.N. resolution.
But U.S. defence secretary Robert Gates hit back at the suggestion, saying it would be ‘unwise’ to target the Libyan leader adding cryptically that the bombing campaign should stick to the ‘U.N. mandate’.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1368693/Libya-war-Germans-pull-forces-NATO-Libyan-coalition-falls-apart.html#ixzz1HRwz3rXz
Meanwhile, what are the Libyans doing? They were making good progress until Quaddafi fired up his air force. If somebody takes out the air force, presumably the Libyans should be free to continue their fight on the ground. Wouldn’t it be better to allow the Libyan rebels to do the dirty work? They started it…
Oil above $106: ‘It’s the perfect storm’. ~ cnnmoney
Tensions in the Middle East and Libya show no signs of abating. Japan is dealing with post-earthquake rebuilding and major nuclear issues. And the U.S. is entering prime driving season.
At the same time, crude prices have surged and are now above $106 a barrel - a level not seen since Sept. 26, 2008. Gas prices aren’t faring much better. Many drivers are already paying $4 a gallon.
Oil traders are wondering what’s next.
“It is truly the perfect storm right now,” said James Cordier, president at Liberty Trading Group. “I’ve never seen anything like it — the news just isn’t stopping.”
The benchmark U.S. contract, West Texas Intermediate, rose $1.15, or 0.9%, to $106.12 a barrel for May delivery. The May contract became the front-month contract on Wednesday.
Brent oil, the benchmark European contract, added 30 cents to trade at $116 a barrel.
“The next 90 days are the huge driving season for the U.S., which creates a major demand situation,” Cordier said.
And crude is spiraling higher quickly. U.S. oil prices have surged more than 20% since mid-February, when pro-democracy movements reached Libya, Africa’s third-largest oil producer.
But the nation contributes only about 2% of the 87.5 million barrels of oil the world consumes every day. So traders’ concerns are more about whether the regional unrest will spread to other nations.
I love how when the weather gets nice, it’s “driving season”. What a bunch of clowns.
Martha, get the kids into the car, we’re going to Disneyworld … wait … we’re broke … and the CCs are maxed out. I guess its another staycation Martha.
And gas is $5 a gallon.
Good. (warning: judgmental self-righteousness ahead) I always equated Disney-goers as those who don’t know how to entertain themselves.
$461 million project will speed train trip to Raleigh by 13 minutes
RALEIGH, N.C. (AP/WBTV) - North Carolina transportation officials say they’ve reached an agreement that will allow them to obtain $461 million in federal grants to improve train service.
The agreement will allow faster and more frequent passenger service between Charlotte and Raleigh. State transportation secretary Gene Conti says the agency will seek bids for contracts for tracks, bridges and trains.
Officials say the new service would cut travel time from Charlotte to Raleigh to less than three hours, even with seven stops along the way. However, the ride will only be 13 minutes faster.
The project is expected to create nearly 5,000 jobs.
With the millions, the state will be taking out a zig-zag Norfolk-Southern and CSX trains have to maneuver through in Charlotte’s Fourth Ward area.
The project will also add miles of double track and miles of passing track so trains can pass each other.
The work will also straighten out some of the lines and build bridges where the trains intersect with roadways.
Money will also go to begin developing a huge train station in Fourth Ward north of the Panthers stadium. That will be called the Charlotte Gateway Station, which will bring together Amtrak, a future commuter rail to north Mecklenburg and a streetcar through Charlotte.
North Carolina had to obtain an agreement with Norfolk Southern Railway to qualify for the grants. The Federal Railroad Administration had been concerned that slower freight trains might hamper the new service.
The project is expected to create nearly 5,000 (NC local/State) jobs.
Well, lil’ Opie (the non-Hawaiian) used up $115 million in about 30 minutes with those Tomahawk missile tosses in Libya, the replenishment/re-stocking ought to help out some American’s to buy grocery’s & pay state taxes well into 2012!
“……taking out a zig-zag…….”
“….add miles of double track, and miles of passing track…..”
“…..straighten out some of the lines, and build bridges where the trains intersect with roadways.”
Which, oh by the way, is all a direct subsidy to CSX and NS.
Charlotte to Raleigh in three hours. Do you get nosebleeds traveling that fast?
$461mill/5000 = $100K a job
These numbers are getting hard to divide with my old calculator. Too many zeros.
You know, some of that money goes to pay for real stuff like steel, concrete, bridges and buildings.
Better that money is spent this way than on bailing out banks, or knocking off dictators.
I am starting to feel a sense of panic from people looking for jobs. 85% of the jobs listed pay less that $15 an hr. A friend of my got desperate and applied at a bakery at $10 an hour, they had 60 applications and this is in CA.
Every now and then I peruse the help wanted ads. Jobs like those I’ve held in the past are paying about a third less than I used to make, and I now live in a more expensive area than I did back then.
AV0CAD0
N or S Ca?
Looking at jobs from Santa Barbara to Santa Cruz. I know they never paid well in this beautiful area but it is REALLY bad now.
Are you by any chance a biologist? or have a BS? I spent 10 yrs selling Goleta grown vegetables, but flew the coop when the house grossly inflated so we….sold it to some Russian $$, and got oursleves to Bend.
Was thinking of moving back but the rents are $2500 plus unless you want to live in Lompoc or Santa Maria (lose the beach, $1000 off your rent.)
Yep, rents in the SB area are insane! $1200 for a nice studio. SM and Lompoc are awful. Lots of gangs these days.
I am starting to feel a sense of panic from people looking for jobs.
That’s why I took my first good offer last month. No regrets so far. A couple other people ended up contacting me after I started the new job, but no telling if those jobs would have been offered or would have been any better.
I did the same back in August. I was offered a job, while two other positions were more appealing to me. I didn’t immediately get an answer to my post-offer inquiry to them. I accepted the other job, questioning if I did the right thing. A week later, one called to tell me that they had moved their job requisition to Michigan and the other called to tell me that they had canceled theirs altogether…
85% of the jobs listed pay less that $15 an hr. A friend of my got desperate and applied at a bakery at $10 an hour
Which is why houses and cars are selling in anemic numbers. Household formation must be slowing to a crawl. I don’t expect my kids to move out of the house until they have establish their careers, if that ever happens. Even with college degrees I fear that the best they will accomplish are a series of temporary jobs.
I am 45, have a BS, mid career, owned 3 homes, now in cash, but I am going to end up taking a job that might have otherwise gone to a new college grad. My high salary was $73k, now looking for work under $40k! It is crazy out there in CA.
I am starting to feel a sense of panic from people looking for jobs. 85% of the jobs listed pay less that $15 an hr. A friend of my got desperate and applied at a bakery at $10 an hour, they had 60 applications and this is in CA.
It get’s worse if you’re over 50 or under 25.
CA eminent-domain abuse threatens at-risk children’s activity center
March 22, 2011 by Ed Morrissey ~Hotair.com
In the ongoing battle over eminent domain, one could not have chosen a more sympathetic protagonist than the Community Youth Athletic Center (CYAC) in National City, California. The center uses sports to motivate at-risk children and teens in the community to improve themselves through education and gang interdiction. Unfortunately for CYAC and approximately 700 other property owners, the city wants to seize their property through the declaration of blight, not to build a road or a government building but a luxury condo, in CYAC’s case. The Institute for Justice has taken the case, which is reminiscent of the infamous Kelo case, in order to point out the abuses inherent in seizing private property from one owner to another private entity, a process that used to be known by another name … theft.
National City is not a large town; it has a population of less than 60,000 and comprises all of 9.2 square miles. The city has effectively declared two-thirds of its jurisdiction as blighted in what might be the most audacious of land grabs in recent memory. Shining a light on this grab will be very interesting, especially if IJ and local media start following the money and see if and where it leads.
Thank GOD I don’t live in CA.
The city has effectively declared two-thirds of its jurisdiction as blighted
Ha, National City, is_a_Hop_Skip_&_Jump from: Tijuana
Does help explain things.
Don’t trust news media to accurately compare precious metals prices with the past.
We’re hearing today that the price of silver has hit records of more than 30 years ago. Where do they get this stuff?
Consider: The price of silver very briefly touched $55.00 in 1980. In today’s dollars that’s $147.35. Today the price of silver is near $40.00. That’s nowhere near the price of 41 years ago.
The silverinstitute site has the 1981 spot price high as 16.29 and 1980 as 48.70, so technically, hasn’t “the price of silver has hit records of more than 30 years ago”? I mean, technically, that’s 3/22/1981, right? If they said “more than 31 years ago”, they’d be wrong. Or am I looking at things wrong?
I agree with you that it’s non-inflation adjusted though.
“Today the price of silver is near $40.00.” You can said that again!
Stocks edge higher on strong gas demand- AP
Stocks edged higher Wednesday after a government report showed stronger demand for gasoline. Indexes had been lower earlier in the day but rallied after an Energy Department report showed that gasoline consumption continues to grow despite sharp price increases at the pump.
Blankfein Checks Profit Daily, Prefers Voice Mail to E-Mail ~ Bloomberg
Lloyd Blankfein , chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. , checks his bank’s profit every day, prefers voice mail to e-mail and makes unscheduled calls to board members at times of market “uncertainty.”
Forbs
“Like it or not, we will have to share our grain with China,” says Brown, “which means the U.S. consumer will have to compete with a population of 1.3 billion with fast-growing incomes that is quickly moving up the food chain, demanding grain intensive products.” In the past the U.S. could resort to restricting exports, as Russia and Argentina did in the ’07 – ’08 food crisis, this is not an option now. China’s massive holdings of U.S. debt and its continued financing of an exploding deficit makes it politically impossible to not cooperate. “In a country that has been the world’s breadbasket for more than half a century, a country that has never known food shortages or runaway food prices, the world is about to change.” That country is the U.S.
“That is not an option now”
Says Forbes.
We’ll see.
The morons running this country are a trip. The more they flail around, kicking the can/trying to unload the hot potato, the more things get screwed up.
Just think how bad it would be if we weren’t paying out the nose for “the best and the brightest”.
Yes that’s why the US cattle heard is at record lows. The third world is not moving up the food pyramid they are moving down. inflation is eating their paychecks as well. I still think we will see a collapse in demand as US moves to beans and rice and third world moves to tree bark, ants, and road kill.
The house next door to me sold the week it was listed but the realtor keeps the sign up to get advertising. bullcrap alert!
They usually do that until it closes, realturds suck! Maybe we should start a grass roots movement from HBB to abolish the 6% and break the monopoly!!!
The very same thing happened here at the Arizona Slim Ranch. Matter of fact, I had to call my agent to ask him to tell the seller’s agent that the sign was still out front. (My agent was a much brighter bulb than the seller’s agent. That’s why he got my call.)
Hey mikey, I reckon it would come out to $27.86 per person in Walkeristan, WI.
MUrDoch’s “TruePaidProvoker’s™” Faux News: The World is ending!… Fear! Fear! Fear! …Linda the lunch lady lives lavishly!
Saving the state would cost $260 each:
By Steve Lopez / March 23, 2011 / LA Times
And then it’s up to us to decide whether we want to continue to pay that $260 apiece we’ve been paying in taxes —about $22.00 a month — to maintain a degree of civility and humanity or let it all go to hell.
Paging drumminj: Is there a version of the Joshua Tree extension that’s compatible with Firefox 4.0?
Interesting home sales graph at the middle of the page:
New Home Sales Dive to Record Low
By Clifford Marks
Wednesday, March 23, 2011 | 10:36 a.m.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/economy/new-home-sales-dive-to-record-low-20110323
“250,000 homes sold”
Was it exactly 250,000, or was that a nice round figure to throw out to hide a number that was too close to zero to report?
I suppose the number of sales could have been exactly 1/4 of 1 million, but exceptionally round figures always bring out my suspicious side.
Tammany Hall lives on: if it’s Bell, it’s Swell!
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-03-24-bell-car-wash-20110324,0,97609.story
So what do you all make of this article, Oil Will be Gone in 50 Years? Is this a tale of Chicken Little, or Ant & the Grasshopper?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42224813/
SaladSD ……I always thought the figure was longer than 50 years .
Ok ,I just saw INSIDE JOB ,the movie . It was good on a number of levels,
but they could of gone into more ,but I’m sure time prevented it . It was basically a good summary of the situation . I still say they didn’t have to bail them out because they could of directly funded the credit markets while they reduced those bastards to rubble ,like they deserved .Now these culprit entities are even more powerful, as I have said ,and the Movie said .There wasn’t meaningful regulation of the financial markets
and of course we the taxpayers are suppose to except that we bail out these criminal ,morally bankrupt ,culprits and the Companies they
represent .
What a bunch of jerks running around in high places often times being bribed . And if you took a look at other Industries I think you would find similar levels of corruption that have their own consequences . Look at the state of affairs in the Health industry .
Interesting ,in the movie when they were showing the effect on Jobs ,after the financial Ponzi Scheme crash, they showed the affect on jobs in China .
How can anybody walk away from that movie and be happy with the
state of affairs ,I hope a lot of people see it .
Thanks for weighing in on the movie, Wizard. I always appreciate your insights and the integrity of your posts.
This story seemed to need a little help, which I graciously offer in italics.
Fall in home sales dampens spring buying outlook
By Stacey Vanek-Smith Marketplace, Wednesday, March 23, 2011
New home sales in February took their biggest fall in 50 years. The price gap between new and existing homes has widened due to foreclosures.
‘Tis a mere flesh wound.
A reduced price sign sits in front of a house in Glendale, Calif. (David McNew/Getty Images)
Kai Ryssdal: As we sit here in the spring of 2011, going on two years after the recession officially ended, the American economy is doing pretty well in a lot of ways. Jobs look like they’re coming back slowly. Consumers are spending again.
Housing, though, continues to not do us any favors. We learned this morning new home sales fell to their lowest level ever last month.
Sounds like a bottom in used home transactions volume (but not prices) is at hand.
Prices are down as well. Marketplace’s Stacey Vanek Smith takes a look at the sector that started the financial crisis, and why it just can’t seem to get better.
Stacey Vanek Smith: Bad weather didn’t help. But snow can only go so far to explain the dismal sale of new homes last month, on top of a big drop in the market for existing homes.
It has nothing whatsoever to do with the weather. I recall in the Summer of 2005 reading and posting stories on the Housing Bubble Blog about Florida investors snapping up condos in the tailwinds of hurricanes. The problem is that people currently are either broke, not interested in buying a home while prices are still going downhill, or both.
I’m certain the number of homeless is up, though I wouldn’t consider that a green shoot.
Chris Christopher is a senior economist at IHS Global Insight.
Christopher says part of the problem is that a lot of people owe a lot more on their mortgages than their homes are now worth, so they’re not in a position to buy or sell. And those who do want to sell and upgrade are hitting another kind of wall — a shortage of first-time home buyers, says Walter Moloney with the National Association of Realtors.
That is easily explained. There was an $8K first-time homebuyer tax credit that expired in Spring 2010, which beat all the prospective first-time buyers who were thinking of entering the market off the fence. This served to push transactions forward, at the same time driving up prices and exhausting near-term demand. The price effect is known around here as a “dead cat bounce,” and the aftermath is a resumption of price declines due to a dearth of prospective first-time buyers.
Problem is, many first-time home buyers are snapping up foreclosed properties. In other words, they’re buying from a bank, and not someone who is going to take that money and go buy a new house.
Why is it a problem if first-time home buyers are making intelligent decisions to buy affordably-priced foreclosure homes, rather than overpriced owner-occupied used homes? I see it as a healthy sign that at least some young Americans are making financially prudent decisions.
At any rate, if they bought an underwater home from an owner-occupant in a short sale, that still wouldn’t raise funds for the downpayment on a move-up purchase. The move-up market is dead as a doornail; you could stick a fork in it and it wouldn’t twitch.
…
ECONOMY
MARCH 24, 2011
Income Data Reflect Recovery’s Fitful Path
By SUDEEP REDDY
Personal income, hit hard by the recent recession, rebounded across the U.S. last year, but only 10 states saw individuals’ earnings surpass their prerecession peaks.
Data released Wednesday by the Commerce Department show the uneven nature of the recovery. Incomes in Nevada, hit hard by the housing downturn and unemployment, gained just 0.3% in 2010 from a year earlier, while nearby New Mexico showed the strongest performance, a 4.2% increase in personal income.
Personal income in New York state picked up 4.1%, driven by a rebound in the financial-services sector there. Regions benefiting from high commodity prices, such as Texas and Oklahoma, also were among the strongest gainers last year. They experienced shallower downturns than other parts of the U.S.
“Texas and the states in the central part of the country that did not have the big housing boom and bust have been stronger through the recession,” says Jim Diffley, an economist at IHS Global Insight. Meanwhile, states such as Arizona and Florida “are still very much in the depths of the problem caused by real estate.”
…
Actually, since today’s new home sales figure was the lowest on record, back to the beginning of record keeping in 1963, we cannot really tell when, if ever, there was a lower new home sales figure.
23 Mar, 2011, 09.17PM IST,AFP
US home sales slump to lowest level since 1960’s
WASHINGTON: Sales of new homes in the United States have slumped to the lowest level since the 1960’s, official data showed Wednesday, offering more evidence of an lingering real estate crisis.
Sales tumbled nearly 17 percent in February, the Commerce Department said, to a seasonally adjusted total of 250,000 sales during the month.
That marked the lowest number of units sold since 1963, when records began.
At the current rate it would take almost nine months for the all the new homes on the US market to be sold — if no more homes are built.
The biggest slowdown in turnover was seen in the country’s populous northeast, with sales down 57 percent from January.
“Nothing good can be said about the February report,” said Steven Ricchiuto , an economist with Mizuho describing it as “several times worse that the markets expected.”
…