Bits Bucket for April 5, 2011
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Here’s a news release (from Feb 4) that is related to our discussions about energy that have been going on here for several days/weeks:
“DOE Pursues SunShot Initiative to Achieve Cost Competitive Solar Energy by 2020.”
http://www.energy.gov/news/10050.htm
Interesting; the DOE thinks efficiency needs to be increased 4x just to make solar “competitive” without subsidy.
Unfortunate that their focus is on large installations. IMO, the incentive for large power plants and long distance transmission is fuel supply logistics. With solar, distributed generation and minimal transmission distance would be a better goal. It would also cut out a lot of “losses” to middlemen.
Unfortunately, every time this country has started to invest in alternatives/conservation/domestic supply, OPEC has cut the price of oil.
And then like Pavlov’s dogs, Americans stop conserving and stop buying gas guzzlers, and companies producing domestic and alternative energy shrink or go bust.
And then OPEC hikes the price of oil again.
And no one dares to say perhaps a tax should keep the price of fossil fuels in general, and imported oil and dirty coal in particular, high enough that this doesn’t happen. Not extremely high. Probably about as high as it is right now. Because that would make life less easy for whiners in the short run.
But if that had happened starting with the Arab Oil boycott, we wouldn’t be importing a drop of oil right now, because we’d have better and cheaper alternatives.
Perot suggested $0.25/gl tax on gasoline to pay off the national debt. It went over like a lead Zepplin.
“And then like Pavlov’s dogs, Americans stop conserving and stop buying gas guzzlers”
I think you meant start buying gas guzzlers.
And you are 100% right. In 2008 when fuel prices were high people couldn’t give their pickups and SUVs away. Then when gas dropped back down to $2 the lesson was forgotten within months.
The local Ford dealers has alway had far more trucks than cars cars in its inventory. For some reason this is what Americans want: an overpriced, ponderous, poor handling, unsafe (because they flip over easily) gas guzzling truck.
“an overpriced, ponderous, poor handling, unsafe (because they flip over easily) gas guzzling truck.”
But you get to sit up high!
And many American’s simply don’t fit in modern cars. The Crown Vic line was the last that could hold ‘em.
Of course, they could ride in mini-vans, which are both roomy and safe, but still pain in the ass for others to drive/park around. But that ain’t manly.
I traded in an SUV (that ex-hubby wanted) for an economical 5 door car and have never looked back. Gas prices jump? Doesn’t bother me too much. Live near work. Don’t drive much anyway. Tank lasts forever.
“And many American’s simply don’t fit in modern cars.”
Supersize Me
Sorry. I’ll walk 70 miles before I ever drive a minivan. And besides, they don’t get that much better gas mileage than a truck
Honda Odd-yessy = “Official Mommy Van of Johnson County, Kansas”
(Went to watch my little nephews play soccer over by the “Sprint Campus”. Carrying stuff back to the car, asked brother and his wife what they were driving. A silver Honda Odyssey…..
So we get to the parking lot. And all we see is a parking lot full of silver and white Honda Odysseys.)
It went over like a lead Zepplin.
OTOH, if it went over like classic Led Zeppelin, this country would be rocking some serious alt-energy.
Honda Odd-yessy = “Official Mommy Van of Johnson County, Kansas”
Back when I was growing up, my folks stopped buying American cars. This was in the mid-1960s, and Mom and Dad decided that domestic vehicles were too gas guzzly for their tastes. So they switched to VWs.
Nowadays, Mom is the only driver, and she’s still behind the wheel of a VW. And she drives a stick.
It’s funny how vans have gone from counter-cultural (the VW microbus), to swinger/cool guy (the vans of the 70s), to hopelessly uncool mom-cars (all minivans that aren’t disguised as SUVs) now.
Didn’t the mythbusters make a lead Zeppelin that actually flew?
yes, they did
Eastcoaster: ” I traded in an SUV (that ex-hubby wanted) for an economical 5 door car and have never looked back. Gas prices jump? Doesn’t bother me too much.”
*******************
My 14 year old is about 5′9″. He’s projected to be about 6′2″ when all is said and done. His sister is supposed to be 5′10″. I went w/the minivan for legroom. Can’t help but notice that on the scout camping trips as well as the triathlon days, we’re the heroes that can cart around everyone’s extra gear they can’t fit in their vehicles. My minivan gets 27 mpg highway w/a V6. Twenty four in mixed driving. That works for me.
However, once Jr. drives in 2 years the minivan is going away and yes I will drive a cool car again. : ) Something w/a stick!
“Went to watch my little nephews play soccer over by the “Sprint Campus”. Carrying stuff back to the car, asked brother and his wife what they were driving. A silver Honda Odyssey…..
So we get to the parking lot. And all we see is a parking lot full of silver and white Honda Odysseys.”
I remember the day my brother wanted to show off his exact (silver) same model. That he was excited about the automatic doors and such gewgaws. ‘Twas a sad day…
Well I finally got a minivan, even though like you all I’m much too cool and *not the type* but it sure holds my music gear, bike gear, ski gear etc better than any other rig I could have gotten. Also I figure I always have a place to sleep, just in case.
Sorry. I’ll walk 70 miles before I ever drive a minivan.
I used to feel that way. Still can’t say I like it unless I need to put a lot of crap in it. Finally to the point I can drive something really uncool and not stress much about it. I’d rather have a car I actually like, but not until I can pay cash for it. Looking at 335xi in the 25-29k range. Has the features, comfort, and performance potential combination that’s suitable to me. Until then I’ll drive the old Odyssey while my wife drives her Mercedes. Just put a new starter and new tie rods on the Honda…should be good for quite a while more if I need it to be.
minivan, even though like you all I’m much too cool and *not the type* but it sure holds my music gear, bike gear, ski gear etc better than any other rig I could have gotten.
My past U.S. made mini-van replaced one Bad A#$, classic, macho ride.
Some people used to my old wheels laughed at me but the mini-van was very comfortable, low profile, versatile and economical. Once I had a washer, dryer and a dishwasher in it at the same time and yes I slept in it more than once. I liked it. (I was also already married.)
“I’m much too cool and *not the type*”
Show us your tan Rockports with the velcro straps!!
“my music gear, bike gear, ski gear etc ”
my music gear: I actually bike with my Dobro on my back. Harder to do with the PA.
bike gear: Wait, why don’t you just bike and cut out the middleman? Actually, a couple weeks ago, I rode my bike to go get a bike. Uh… Poor planning?
ski gear: X-C right out the door… once I get to the snow in my ‘92 Transsport. Kidding!
My husband is 6′1″, 250 lbs, your average American these days, and drives a Prius, quite comfortably. And it fits 4 six-footers handily. And there’s plenty of cargo space to haul stuff. So I call Bull on people who say they have to drive a gas guzzling SUV because they can’t fit in cars. Lots of small cars these days are better designed than McTrucks, but you can’t convince SUV drivers because it’s more a matter of ideology than reason. They have to sit high, blah blah blah. What a crock. So, I continue driving my efficient car and subsidize gas guzzlers who spike the supply and demand.
So, I continue driving my efficient car and subsidize gas guzzlers who spike the supply and demand.
Please explain how are you subsidizing anyone?
Didn’t you get a tax credit/write-off for buying your Prius (do they still do that these days?)
“What a crock.”
But what about the children? The children!!!
We fit a 6 foot ladder in our Hyundai Accent.
It only seats 5 and if we needed 3 car seats, they would be the only passengers. Sometimes a larger vehicle is justified.
I figure I should select a vehicle that satisfies my needs 95% of the time. The other 5%, I can rent what I need.
Raspberry to the naysayers. I drove small cars for years. I was 40 before the minivan. That’s four small cars including sports cars. So you can back off now.
A comfortable family member is a happy quiet ride. I’m not talking comfortable for a trip to the market. I’m talking comfortable for x-country driving. That’s worth it’s weight in gold. And when Salad says she can fit everything in a Prius that I can fit in my minivan w/the 2 back seats out….well my answer is can you pass me some of what you’re smoking? We’re not talking a few people’s sports equipment here.
My fat a$$ friends sure do a good imitation of someone spilling over into the next seat when they ride in my car. (Actually, I don’t even try to transport them in my 2-door sports car- that would be comical- they barely fit in my station wagon. And if there’s three of them in the car, you can hear the suspension complaining, if you have an ear for that sort of thing.)
Exactly, we drove cross-country with 4 kids and RENTED an SUV. Don’t need one 99.9% of the rest of the time.
Perot suggested $0.25/gl tax on gasoline to pay off the national debt. It went over like a lead Zepplin.
I suspect Americans are smart enough to know this newfound source of income would not be used to pay off the national debt and would instead become just another tax along with some govt worker pay increases.
The other problem paying off debt by taking action that depresses the economy is that tax revenues fall in other sectors such as income tax, sales tax etc.
Perot was way ahead of his time…….anyone that can borrow $1000 for his wife and turn it into 3 Billion gets my vote
mayor-President Bloomberg sound great to me
The National Ignition Facility, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yixhyPN0r3g
Dumb question of the day: If there were a way to achieve cost competitive solar energy, wouldn’t it already have been achieved by now?
I warned you it was dumb.
There already is cost comptetitive solar energy. It simply does not fit into the MegaCorp, MegaUniversity, MegaGovernment foot on the accelerator business model.
“There already is cost competitive solar energy.”
Where? Even in Germany there’s a huge subsidy for their large solar energy capacity. The “subsidy” is in the form of very high electric bills.
Heating water with solar is very cost-competitive (there’s almost no comparison, it’s so much cheaper), as long as you live in a sunny area, and don’t need hot water early in the morning or late at night.
I have seen folks build their own hot water heating units. Very easy to do and extremely cheap.
Even in less sunny areas it is still possible to raise the temperature of the water entering your hot water heater by enough to make it worth while.
There is no doubt small scale energy has NO place in the US corporate or government scheme of things. No fees to collect and no tax on the fees.
My fantasy house has a large array of water-heating panels on the roof, with a thermosiphoning, closed design, draining-down to a large storage tank in the basement that would serve to pre-heat both hot-water and the radiant heat system. With enough storage, you can address the issue of having hot water early in the day. Ideally I’d build the system myself with recycled materials for not a lot of money.
Of course, such dreams may have to wait a long time, since my LL is unlikely to share such a vision.
Ideally I’d build the system myself with recycled materials for not a lot of money.
and it’d come with a pony, right??
That system sounds nice, but I wonder how effective it’d be in the Seattle area? you’d have some cold water this past week.
Actually I think it’s a fairly good question…
I wonder if:
1) our mix of subsidies / tax rules (ethanol, etc.) encourages the proper mix of research and development.
2) If a real “scaling up” of solar/wind etc. would bring down prices significantly (just like electronics like computers and flat screen TV’s)
3) If part of the problem is there is less “fast money” to be made so investors aren’t patient enough
4) If the short consumer memory (”Pavlov’s dogs, Americans stop conserving and stop buying gas guzzlers”) can be somehow be more effectively addressed.
Perhaps we need an Alternative Energy Political party that reminds Joe Six Pack that it’s patriotic to conserve.
This is one area a government loan program would be effective in getting solar and wind projects off the ground. 10 year repayment at a low interest rate.
In the short term, the unfortunate side effect of this would be to drive up prices, so definitely something that should be ramped up slowly.
Is nuclear energy cost-competitive? We’re doing it.
“Dumb question of the day: If there were a way to achieve cost competitive solar energy, wouldn’t it already have been achieved by now?”
I suppose it depends on how one defines “cost competitive”.
If we use Wall Street and Corporate America’s short term, small picture outlook, probably not.
But if we value:
Clean air
No need for foreign wars to secure oil supplies.
Then maybe, just maybe, it is cost competitive. Unfortunately too many have a vested interest in the status quo.
With a SMALL percentage of the money we have already dumped into the Iraq war, solar panels could have been installed on the roof of every structure in the US. This would have gone a long way to reducing our dependence on foreign oil.
Of course the power and oil companies would NEVER allow this.
With a SMALL percentage of the money we have already dumped into the Iraq war, solar panels could have been installed on the roof of every structure in the US. This would have gone a long way to reducing our dependence on foreign oil.
Within just over a mile from here is a pizza shop and bar that’s 100% solar powered during the day. If anyone would care to join me there for a Tucson happy hour, I’d be happy to treat ya.
Wish I could make it.
Dumb question of the day: If there were a way to achieve cost competitive solar energy, wouldn’t it already have been achieved by now?”
I think they are still working on different types of doping for Wafers that can be more efficient.
Like GaAs maybe ? instead of Si
I am a contractor for the Department of Energy working in a field office outside of DC, expect to get laid off 6 months or 12 months into the contract when its terms are subject to review for renewal. This would happen for political reasons only to “punish” the current administration for making renewable energy research a priority.
This would happen for political reasons only to “punish” the current administration for making renewable energy research a priority.
Figures. But the new, corporatist, banana Republic USA is incapable of long-term, apolitical projects that gore the ox of oil-companies and the like. Because it’s “socialist”. lol
Remember fellow Americans. What they tell us is a big fat “free-market” lie.
Brazil spent billions and 25 years on the “socialist” project of becoming energy independent. They did it.
Gas here is almost the same price as it has been for the past 3 years. If oil goes to $500 a barrel the gas price here won’t change and no Brazilian soldier boys will die in the Middle-east. Why? Because that’s what “energy-independent” means.
For all your alternative energy news, you can go to Google News. At the top right hand of the page is a link that says “Add a section.” That link will take to a page where you can choose from dozens of categorized and specialized news stories.
One of them is Alternative Energy. (page 2)
Long story short, SFH solar and wind installations are now generally competitive. I say “generally” as kilowatt rates vary from region to region as does installation costs.
For the price of a used sub-compact car, you can fully power a modern 2000 sqft house. That’s 2,000 sqft.
Does anyone here seriously think energy costs from the grid will EVER come down? Of course not.
What’s the actual price?
It depends on your region, mfg, type of system and installation.
My preference would be a combination of 2 smallish wind turbines and hybrid modular solar water heating and electricity with battery capacity for at least 3-7 days.
Oops, sorry…
In my area, that would run me about 15k. Installed.
Would you run your stove and dryer on natural gas or do you think you could generate enough electricity for them?
Natural gas. That would take two big loads off of the system.
I’d also use natgas for water heating backup.
Keep in mind in areas like San Diego, we have “Enron” pricing, where if you go over a certain threshold (use air-conditioner) rates climb to around 50 cents a KWH. In order for a solar system to be economical ideally you would generate enough to cover the most expensive watts and pay for the rest…
Already there.
I moved from California to North Carolina and was amazed that one actually gets a bit of a “volume discount” for electricity here.
Article demonstrates that the price chart I provided yesterday was very accurate.
No Spring Break in Housing: Prices Likely to Keep Falling
4 Apr 2011 |CNBC
Housing prices will not get a Spring bounce and will actually fall during the industry’s historically best season as buyers continue to wait for that elusive “housing bottom,” according to surveys and analysis by two top Wall Street firms.
“Our monthly survey of real estate agents indicated a decline in buyer traffic in March, as buyers chose to wait for more signs of balance in the market,” said Credit Suisse’s Daniel Oppenheim, who surveyed 1,200 real estate agents from across the country. “We would expect additional weakness in pricing, as sellers will likely attempt to use price to sell their homes as the end of the traditional spring season nears.”
It’s a vicious self-fulfilling cycle as buyers continue to wait for what they deem to be a bottom, in turn, forcing sellers to lower prices even further. Prices of single family homes fell 3.1 percent year-over-year in January to just above the April 2009 low, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index data released last week.
“A large component of the housing decision is based on the expectation for future home prices, which are naturally a function of current conditions,” said Michelle Meyer, Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist, in a note. “Until it appears that prices are bottoming, many potential homebuyers will remain on the sidelines.”
Meyer estimates home prices have fallen 30 percent from the summer of 2006 until now and will fall another five percent or more this year.
Real estate agents holding open houses should put away the panini’s and petit fours as the buyers nowadays are all-business investors paying upfront in cash for distressed properties in good locations, according to the Credit Suisse Survey.
Yes they are falling and will continue falling. But the deluded will raise prices instead of adjusting to collapsing demand, further starving themselves(Realtors Are Stupid you see). And they are attempting to obscure and hide the fact that demand is collapsing in the Northeast.(Realtors are corrupt you see).
Get what you can get for your house today because it’s going to be much much less tomorrow for many many years to come.
One of my co-workers is still trying to sell his former home in Texas. Smaller home, bought 16 years ago, lots of “upgrades.” He’s on his third realtor and is getting a couple showings. Somebody offered him a lowball, which he took as an insult. Co-worker counteroffered with halfway between the lowball and asking price. Buyer refused. Co-worker was thoroughly insulting and told the guy off.
Co-worker is encouraged that he’s getting showings, but he said it was interesting — the showings are during the week, not on weekends. I told him watch out, those are likely bottom feeders, not families.
He should have taken his haircut two years ago and broke even. I’m not sure he needs the money — sounds more like pride.
Your co-worker is braindead.
Aren’t most of them?
I’ve noticed more weekday open houses here - is that the same sort of thing?
People are requesting showings during the week. One lady apparently just showed up without warning.
I think you should change it to “All realtoRs are liars”.
Is it fair to presume that ALL Realtors Are Liars? But point well made.
“It’s a vicious self-fulfilling cycle as buyers continue to wait for what they deem to be a bottom”
LOL! They assume that there are buyers. Didn’t they get the memo? Half the workforce makes less than $500 per week. Viva globalization!
And a quarter of the workforce isn’t working.
Everybody works; its just that everybody don’t get paid.
Exhibit A: dead people
I could imagine dead people having to work under some of the new Republican austerity programs.
‘A restful slumber into eternity was the product of socialist thinking and unsustainable entitlement programs. We’ve got to get real, people.’
Work till you drop…. then get back up and keep working slave!
when you die you go to work making compost.
“when you die you go to work making compost”
…unless you are creamated and put in a mausoleum.
Doesn’t Elvis still pay taxes?
Yes let’s get those dead people working.
Solient Green?
It’s a vicious self-fulfilling cycle Of course it’s only vicious if you’re a seller. If you’re a buyer, I’m guessing that it’s kind of glorious. The whole thing remindes me of Seinfeld’s comment about nature shows. When the show is about the impala, you’re saying “run, get away from the lion,” but when the show is about the lion you’re saying “get him, get the impala.” So why is SO much RE Bust reporting about unhappy sellers (listers really) and very little about buyers finding houses much more affordable than five years ago. I want to read a story about a family buying a house today and saying things like “we could NEVER have afforded this five years ago.” Prices are a zero sum game. If somebody is winning because prices are going up, then sombody else is losing and vice versa.
People who wanted to buy 5 years ago and couldn’t afford it got exploding loans and were made to believe they could afford it. The ones who knew that they couldn’t afford it 5 years ago and refused to consider the bad loan products are also aware that the market hasn’t finished adjusting yet. So, I imagine that there aren’t too many of your hypothetical families around.
A nice summary.
I think there was some “buy and Bail ” going on back in 2008-2010
but thats over too I think
What really bothered me was the vicious self-fulfilling cycle where house prices were pushed up, so people jumped in further pushing prices up which drew ‘investors’ into the market, and so on.
I can’t recall the term vicious ever used during the run up.
It’s called a virtuous circle in the run-up, and a vicious circle on the run down.
It should never be called a vicious (or virtuous) cycle.
Thus sayeth Pedantic Man.
Hows about a nice neutral ’self re-enforcing cycle.’
Well the term in engineering and mathematical circles is a “positive feedback loop.” Where “positive” ISN’T a value judgement, but noting that the something is moved in a direction, the more force pushes it in that direction.
“If you’re a buyer, I’m guessing that it’s kind of glorious.”
Hardly. Housing’s still overpriced by about a factor of 2 compared to a decade ago and it wasn’t cheap then. Given the supply situation is much better than then and the economy and people’s wages worse, prices should be lower than they were then.
Depends where you live. Arizona housing is back to 2000 pricing with substantially lower interest rates. And it doesn’t appear to be bottomed yet…
Yeah, the kids these days just getting out of college are working for dirt wages. The kids just getting out of high school are hoping for one of those McD jobs. Those people are more than happy to see prices falling. It’s the only thing saving their bacon.
“buyers nowadays are all-business investors”
Essentially they are saying that there is no housing market. If all the buyers are flippers, the market for “housing” is dead. It seems like an unrealistic exageration, but interesting to see it in the mainstream news. It must mean that the common man came to this realization already, or it wouldn’t be “news”.
Getting closer to “Housing is the worst investment ever!”
Point taken, although speculators often do set a bottom price for volatile assets. And I’ve said before that it is likely that the market bottom will be set by intentional, cash-flow landlords. It is likely that credit will contract until people with large ammounts of cash will be able to get a decent ROI by renting out at then current rents and prices.
If expectations swing toward falling incomes, falling rents, rising taxes and rising interest rates, wouldn’t that scatter the specuvestors?
I am sick of reading crap like this. “Housing prices will continue to fall….blah,blah,blah”. Speaking of falls, did you see Kirstie Ally go down last night? That is more like what we should be discussing. You know, the important real stuff that is happening now.
Who is Kirstie Ally and why did she fall?
She fell because nobody would buy her bonds.
Dark Ally
Scientology failed her.
Serious answer: Kirstie Alley is an aging actress best known for being on a couple TV shows and the Baby Talk movies. She used to be gorgeous but then she gained a hundred pounds or so. She’s still rather pretty, but her very public battle to lose weight and keep it off is rather annoying.
She’s on Dancing with the Stars at the moment. She did well last week, but I guess she fell this week. (?) I didn’t watch.
I never liked her.
On Cheers I preferred her predecessor, whoever that was.
See what I mean: Ben, can we please have a “Dancing With the Stars” section on the blog every day?
Shelly Long over Kirstie Alley? No way
“She used to be gorgeous but then she gained a hundred pounds or so.”
And let’s be honest here… that’s why she fell. Her partner was sort of half lifting and half dragging her, and couldn’t support her weight.
(I didn’t see the show, but after hearing about it I watched the video clip.)
Yeah, there’s a reason you don’t see too many 200 pound female dancers. Still, she looked good, when she wasn’t being dropped to the floor. (I rate her three beers
)
Yeah, there’s a reason you don’t see too many 200 pound female dancers.
Because hot chicks don’t like 350 lb male dancers.
Are those like Utah’s 3.2 beers or like potent home brews? I just like to get my facts straight.
Oxide said above that Kirstie lost her looks because she gained a few pounds but you’ve got to remember she’s also 60 years old.
Yeah she’s got to make some lifestyle choices that will keep the weight off on a more permanent basis but I bet a lot of 60 year olds would still switch places w/her.
“She used to be gorgeous but then she gained a hundred pounds or so.”
Hypothesis: what did her mother look like?
3 craft beers on an empty stomach
I never understood the fascination with her. I don’t think she’s that funny and she’s not all that attractive regardless of her weight gain/loss.
“Prices Likely to Keep Falling”
A watched pot never boils –
unless you turn up the heat or take the lid off the pressure cooker.
So if a home purchased in 95 for 275k rose to 875k by 05; is the fact that it is 600k mean that the fall is over? Is 600k affordable? Talking coastal CA here.
Thinking its only 1/2 way over here
In Central Oregon, reasonable starter homes are again 100k.
That sounds like 3x income, but a two earner income, because the workforce here seems to work for $10/hour to $20/hour.
I guess if a couple is lucky enough to have two $20/hr jobs then a 100K house would be very reasonable, maybe even with a 10 year loan.
The two-earner income is not as reliable as people think it is. It is not that easy to go to work when you are pregnant with already at least one kid.
Agreed, but I know A LOT of couples that do it.
Couples don’t go to work when they are pregnant. Women do. Just a little pet peeve of mine.
As I figured out when I was pregnant with my first, it is a lot easier to work while pregnant than after the baby is born.
And it sure made my boss and coworkers nervous when I was 8 months along. They were glad when I decided to take leave 2 weeks before my due date.
And it sure made my boss and coworkers nervous when I was 8 months along. They were glad when I decided to take leave 2 weeks before my due date.
I had a boss who worked right up until the evening before her second child was born.
My water broke in my office chair. They still talk about it.
Congratulations, Big V!
My little bro was tanking a WoW raid when his wife’s water broke. They still talk about that.
“Thinking its only 1/2 way over here”
See my comment above. I would not be surprised to see another 50 to 60 percent decline from current prices for some properties in coastal Southern California.
So far, there doesn’t seem to be much interest in intervention to slow/stop this second leg down. My sense is this is happening because it hasn’t been much noticed yet and it’s harder to get a consensus (i.e., enough votes) to pass measures that might slow this second decline. That doesn’t necessarily mean that prices will bottom quickly. We might just have a longer stalemate between sellers and potential buyers than with the first decline.
I’ve been watching prices like a hawk since I bought last summer. I bought $27K below the “zestimate” at the time and it ended up appraising at settlement for $7K more than I paid.
I’ve seen comps in the area sell for some wonderfully low prices since then and I’ve seen the “zestimate” of my house fall to what I paid for it…and then back up a little (currently at $5K over what I paid).
I knew when I bought that prices would continue to fall - no question. And of course I’d like to see them moderate sooner rather than later. But I still think I might have done ok. Of course I’m one of the oddballs who put 25% down.
Enjoy your new home….
eastcoaster
Thanks for visiting us. We missed you. Any surprises regarding the house (Inspection advise or oversights?) or neighborhood?
How’s your son doing in his new home and neighborhood?
In my well maintained and well kept solidly middle class neighborhood of several thousand, tax assessments have dropped roughly 12% and some asking prices by almost 50% although the average seems to be 25% from last bought.
“Houses” Several thousand houses.
The Bernake is on the job!
Bernanke Says Fed Must Monitor Inflation ‘Extremely Closely’
~ Bloomberg
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said policy makers must watch inflation “extremely closely” for evidence that rising commodity costs are having more than a temporary impact on consumer prices.
This is wrong at so many levels.
The wolf is watching closely for evidence that sheep are being eaten.
Temporary starvation is quite reasonable.
Crushing consumers is unfortunate collateral damage in the war on savers.
“Temporary starvation is quite reasonable.”
Temporary starvation is permanent. To see for yourself, compare the price of an ounce of gold in 1965 to the price of an ounce of gold today, then ask yourself how soon we are likely to get back to 1965 pricing.
How can you make any arguments regarding the price of commodity for which there was no real market? Since it was ILLEGAL for people to own gold except for very limited exceptions, the “price” of Au in 1965 can more easily be regarded as part of a confiscation mechanism, then as any kind of price as understood in market terms.
Jim, it was really easy to accumulate all the gold you might want in 1965; “collectable” (wink wink) coins, jewelry, “art” & etc. IIRC, new coins were minted all over the world with dates from the early 1900s to satisfy the American bullion market.
Blue skye–yes, and I’d wager that all those carried a SIGNIFICANT premium over both the “nominal” price that the government would give you for gold AND the spot price for gold in places were its ownership was unrestricted.
What a pant load! This little twerp knows full well the debt limit will be raised, it always is. He throws out the S.S. comment to get the populous worked up. AARP will be all over it.
Geithner Sees ‘Severe Hardships’ If Debt Limit Isn’t Raised
Bloomberg
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner told lawmakers that a failure to raise the debt limit would bring “severe hardship” for Americans as the government is forced to suspend services such as Social Security payments.
Geithner, in a letter to members of Congress, said the U.S. will reach the $14.29 trillion limit on its ability to borrow no later than May 16 if Congress doesn’t act. Republican lawmakers, including Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, have been resisting a debt-limit increase while calling for extensive budget cuts.
“The longer Congress fails to act, the more we risk that investors here and around the world will lose confidence in our ability to meet our commitments and our obligations,” Geithner said yesterday in a letter addressed to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
Geithner’s warning came as lawmakers debated budget legislation needed to avert a government shutdown on April 8, when existing spending authority expires. While the Treasury can continue to sell debt during a shutdown caused by lack of spending authority, it has no such leeway if it runs out of borrowing room.
The debt-limit fight will be shaped by how voters and markets react to the debate over the extension of spending authority, said Stanley Collender, managing director of Qorvis Communications and a former congressional budget analyst.
“… as the government is forced to suspend services such as Social Security payments.”
But.. but… but Social security funds are invested in Treasuries. Why not cash in some of the Treasuries to make the SS payments?
Plus there’s the constant inflow of SS cash from workers and employers.
“Why not cash in some of the Treasuries to make the SS payments?”
Who would do this, if the gov is shut down?
I think Geithner is just subtly reminding many of the TeaKoch Party where their income comes from. Apparently Medicare being gov run was a surprise to many of them.
he left out the children.
+1 LOL!
Good point. Their kids probably get gov bennies too.
Because if they stop making payments on the debt, the interest rate will go way up (though probably not to infinity) which means that cashing in the ones earning almost nothing will yield almost nothing.
Not raising the debt ceiling means living off current income. SS comes in fairly steadily, so while checks might be delayed and get a small haircut, they wouldn’t stop all together. Same thing with Medicare - employee contributions and senior premiums would still come in. But debt payments? That is the real problem. Other stuff would be impacted at least in terms of timing, but the debt and other large outlays could be a real mess. I’d have to guess that payments for farm subsidies, energy subsidies, pell grants/student loans, and defense contractor payments would be high on the list.
“Plus there’s the constant inflow of SS cash from workers and employers.”
Yeah, its not like they’ll stop collecting the payroll tax, will they?
Exactly.
He’s selling the fear.
How ’bout we suspend Congressional and Executive cabinet salaries BEFORE social security?
Is there any chance we can make the government shutdown permanent?
I like the way you think!
umm…. get-r-done was a joke. Get it??
What a great idea! Thank god no one would dare take advantage of lax oversight and enforcement of trade and safety regulations.
Oh wait…
You know, I commented that it was easier to use negative consequences to stear the behavior of big companies than FBs. But it occurs to me that one of the many threads of the crisis has been a change in corporate culture of a greater emaphasis on short term results at the expense of long term profitibility. I can think of several contributions to this. The cult of the “superstar” CEO means that they are less concerned with how the company will be doing in 10 years since they probably won’t be working there, and besides will have already made enough to live comfortably for the rest of their lives even if the poo DOES hit the fan. So risky behavior that results in immediate gain makes sense to them. Underlying this is the fact that the owners (stockholders) aren’t particularly interested in the long term either. I have to blame the emphasis on stock prices rather than dividends. If you’re depending on dividends for your returns, than you don’t want anything to mess your future income stream. OTOH, if you’re speculating on the stock price, you’re ALWAYS trying to figure out whether this is a good time to jump ship. (or buy more) So the high P/E ratios cause stock holders, and through the BODs the management to emphasize risky, make a buck this quarter, and to hell with the long term decisions.
I wonder if there’s a way to structure the law so that dividends (rather than stock price) become popular again.
Tax capital gains at the same rate as ordinary income. Or higher if you really want to rock the boat.
I thought dividend income was still considered capital gains.
No. Dividends are not and have never been “considered” capital gains.
But they were taxed at the rate of ordinary income and capital gains until Bush lowered the dividends tax rate to 15% weren’t they?
The PTB got bush to tax dividends at the lower capital gains rate…then the PTB got obama to extend the low rate…and now the PTB is getting obama to lower the corporate rate.
It’s shameful if you think about it. I would allow all corporations a deduction for dividends paid…and raise the dividend rate to the ordinary rate.
Being taxed at the same rate as is not even remotely like being considered to be the same as. In particular, if you have capital assets that are in a loss situtation, you can sell them just before the end of the year and offset your capital gains and not have to pay tax on that gain at all.
Capital gains are taxed the same as ordinary income unless held over one year. Dividends, conversely, get preferential treatment.
Interestingly, interest income also gets taxed as ordinary income when it is merely keeping up with inflation, for the most part (and even less than inflation today.) Interest income taxes should be lowered (maybe to zero) to encourage savings in this nation.
“Capital gains are taxed the same as ordinary income unless held over one year. Dividends, conversely, get preferential treatment.”
And capital gains get very preferential treatment after they’ve been held a year and a day.
Namely, being taxed at less than half the rate of income (15%), for those in the higher brackets.
i would extend oridnary treatement out to two or three years…preferential treatment after two or three years and a zero rate after five to seven.
i think that would get rid of some of the specualtion in the capital markets…and encourage investments in the long-term.
In particular, if you have capital assets that are in a loss situtation, you can sell them just before the end of the year and offset your capital gains and not have to pay tax on that gain at all.
————————-
While there are plenty of intelligent reasons to sell a stock for a loss, selling a stock just to offset capital gains is about as intelligent as buying more house than you can afford for the mortgage tax deduction.
Thanks for putting “considered” in quotes, polly. Nothing like a fresh dose of unaccountable nastiness to round out a day in the life of the commentariat.
V,
When you use imprecise language to discuss complex legal topics, expect people to point out that you are using imprecise language. There is a world of difference between having the same tax rate applied to two different types of income and them being actually treated the same way. There is more to the tax code than marginal rates. The two types of income are treated very, very differently. Sometimes they are taxed at the same rate. Sometimes they aren’t. It changes. But they are never treated the same. All the other rules are always different.
If you don’t like having it pointed out, don’t display your ignorance.
Polly:
We are speaking in the vernacular here. Take a pill.
Really, since the majority of capital gains are booked by those in the highest tax bracket, there seems little reason not to tax them at the highest marginal rate.
Cue CharlieTango talking point in 5…4…3…2…
The shift you describe was well underway before the current crisis. One could even say that the popularization/widespread entrenchment of the “short term gains/every man for himself” mentality was an absolute prerequisite for the housing bubble. After all, how many buyers really gave any real thought towards those that would buy after them? (no, I’m not talking about cabinet finishes and color palettes)
Absoloutely, this has been a long term change, and has many underlying causes: The illusion of “the great moderation,” the preferential tax treatment given to capital gains etc. But it has meant that companies are less responsive to incentives (both market and regulatory) based on their long term profitability.
I just think it’s because people are a lot less nice than they used to be. One day, Jack Welch woke up and said, “hey, how come I’m being nice? I can be a b@astard and still be legal.” And thus greed was sold as “leadership” and we were off to the races.
I can be a b@astard and still be legal.” And thus greed was sold as “leadership” and we were off to the races ??
Along with a lack of Moral Character….
Sad but true.
I had a coworker at HP whose dad was once the #2 guy at IBM. His dad retired in the 90’s and since then told my coworker that the following generations of managers scared him with their lack of ethics and sociopathic tendencies.
Great comment oxide .
I don’t buy this. Human nature really doesn’t change. But sometimes people’s responses to a change in their incentives takes awhile. Just about everybody is capable of being naughty or nice. If everybody is nice, the outcome is better for most people. If most people are nice, the outcome is pretty good for most, but best for those few who are naughty. But it really sucks to be one of the few nice guys in the room, so once the naughty quotient gets high enough, most other people go into “devil take the hindmost” mode. And then things suck for everybody. So there are multiple equilibria, and stuff usually goes downhill more quickly than trust can be built.
But people DO respond to incentives. Just what changed that we went from most people were trustworthy most of the time to the completely evil CF that has constituted the financial industry over the last few years? Yes this may have been an asymptotic response to a slow change, or one that happened years ago, but it is simply not the case that selfishness always triumphs over cooperation.
I had a coworker at HP whose dad was once the #2 guy at IBM. His dad retired in the 90’s and since then told my coworker that the following generations of managers scared him with their lack of ethics and sociopathic tendencies.
And then I got to work for those guys (and ladies) for a while in the early 2000s when my company got bought by IBM. Not my favorite career phase.
Nothing changed in the last few years. You are seeing the culmination of the 30 years of “greed is good… at all costs” mentality that was promoted in the 1980s and has been the main theme of big business since.
Damn overpaid union janitors!
IMO, the problem is with public corporations in general. If you have to report results/expectations to Wall Street every quarter, of course you’re focused on short term results. Private companies don’t have that problem. Their focus is on creating long term value. There’s no motivation for boosting the value of the company in the short term if it’s at the expense of the long term. For public companies, the long term value doesn’t really matter other than as it relates to the short term value. That is the problem.
Actually this is a bit of urban mythology. Something that is not discouraged because…
Big corporations are planning and have a road map out to at least the next 10 years. I’ve seen some out to 20.
The trick is to balance and integrate the short term with the long term.
I’ve been in big companies with long term roadmaps. I didn’t find their actual decision making to be any different from those without them. It was all about the stock price.
Like I said, the trick is to balance and integrate the short term with the long term.
Some can, some can’t.
Realtors Are Corrupt
Human beings are apparently corrupt. Realtors have more incentive and opportunity to show this.
corruptcorruptibleMorning all! I moved to Virginia. The housing bubble is about half-way gone here.
what do you mean?
where are you?
VIRGINIA.
LOL!!!
Hi, Big V. and anybody else who becomes an economic refugee to my state:
You don’t have to pout and stamp your foot about being here in VA. VA did quite OK before you got here. Since YOU moved HERE, evidently you cannot say the same. So stop screaming and pouting, unless you REALLY are that entitled.
You are now neighbors with Oxide and me at a minimum. We used to have quite a few Northern Virginian posters. I think we scared them off, me with my screeds against the post industrial decline and how it has played out, and Oxide with her more liberal views. Oxide is in MD, though, but that is still spittin’ distance.
IMHO, and the MSM agrees, VIRGINIA is actually two states. There is Northern Virginia, home to some of the shrillest, most ignorant, entitlement minded ideologues I have met since leaving CT. It really should have been annexed to SE DC, Bethesda or Long Island, as the culture is more consonant. Is NOVA where you moved? You might have liked Bethesda or SE DC better.
Then there is the rest of VA, in which (based on my sample-of-one observations) folks take pride in their rural-Southern roots, and know how to do useful things themselves (rather than relying on an army of tubercular illegal aliens who spread bedbugs but know how to swing a hammer. Even if they aren’t numerate enough to use a level or a tape). The rest of VA values keeping a jaundiced eye out against gummint babysitting offers. They are aware of the price that will be exacted, and foisted onto others into perpetuity.
In sum, the NY/NJ/CT/CA mindset in Northern Virginia is shrill, in contrast to the ambience in the rest of the state.
I have observed one thing consistently. In this state, if a man opens a door for you, it is NEVER to be taken as an indication that he is hell bent on patronizing you or otherwise treating you as a slave. Your best response will NOT include any of the following: a) punching him in the face; b) screaming epithets while frenziedly taking cell phone pictures of yourself on the other side of said door, to present as evidence; or c) scratching his eyes out.
Nother thing. VA is a “shall carry” state. We OURSELVES like to be able to shoot the illegal alien that’s stabbing us whilst in a drunken rage over some imagined slight. In contrast to lying there like good victims, pleading with passersby to call the po-leece, whilst apologizing to the attacker for hurting his bedbuggy little feelings in doing so. We likes our guns, and DON’T like Californians who come here with chips on their shoulders telling us how to do it better, after they have been starved out.
You are welcome for the advice on deportment.
Wow, Jane… chill.
I moved out of VA about three years ago. Miss it dearly. Your assessment of the culture is right on. But even in my old nabe along the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains, house prices just about doubled in the six years I spent there, and that’s after the run up they had before I got there. I’d have to agree with Big V that Virginia isn’t all back to long term trendline pricing yet.
We likes our guns, and DON’T like Californians who come here with chips on their shoulders telling us how to do it better, after they have been starved out.”
haha I have lived in CA most of my life and find this attitude towards Californians common in many other states, and mostly agree with it .
so much mental illness here in CA
Of course I always blamed the other states for sending us their misfits.
they all come here to be movie stars.
Now we are getting a boatload of foriegners here who often are very conservative. At my son’s middle school many of the girls wear the hijab. Not valley girls anymore…….
“We OURSELVES like to be able to shoot the illegal alien that’s stabbing us whilst in a drunken rage over some imagined slight. In contrast to lying there like good victims, pleading with passersby to call the po-leece, whilst apologizing to the attacker for hurting his bedbuggy little feelings in doing so. We likes our guns…”
LOL! I bet you love the Lord, too!
You left the other Virginia. West Virginia.
“…left out…”
GAH the pollen is killing me!
Jane:
Ummmmmmm. Did you read my post? I think you and polly are having serious PMS issues. I merely statet that I moved here. You got a problem with that? Seriously, I feel like slapping you two at this point.
BTW:
Californians are called “Pioneers”, dear. Virginians are, well, not.
You left the other Virginia. West Virginia
Good ol’ Abe.
Time to change your screen name then!
There is a popluar ham sandwich out here called the Big Virginian. Too bad i don’t eat ham, tee hee.
Yeah. The native Virginians are proud of their ham.
Your other half found a job there ??
iPad = Air Jordans
http://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/Shooting-Reported-at-Otay-Ranch-Town-Center-119181734.html?dr
An Apple store in a very affluent Chicago suburb has been robbed three times in the past 7 months. Via the same method. It give a new meaning to brick and mortar.
gives*
It just happend in San Diego, too.
Wait a minute. There’s a town called Otay? I’m thinkin’ Buckwheat in “Little Rascals.”
I’m thinkin’ Buckwheat in “Little Rascals.”
Or moreso eddie murphy’s version…
“Unce….tice….fee times a maydee….”
Pronounced “Oh Tie”.
It’s pronounced Oh-TIE
“It’s pronounced Oh-TIE”
Otay, thanks.
Wait until the rest of the UE checks runs out.
BEIJING (AP) — ‘China raised key interest rates Tuesday for the fourth time since October as it tries to dampen high inflation. The People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, said the quarter-percentage-point increase lifts the one-year lending rate to 6.31 percent and the rate for one-year bank deposits to 3.25 percent…’
‘Analysts say a bank lending boom is partly to blame for the overheating, prompting measures to curb the credit boom that is pushing up real estate and stock prices.’
The Federal Reserve did this too, and it could be argued that was when prices topped out in the main bubble states. Is China about to go over the falls?
In my uneducated opinion, no. They’re running a trade surplus right?
China is running a trade surplus because the U.S. and Europe are flush with cash and are relentlessly sending boatloads of this cash to China.
Oh, wait …
“They’re running a trade surplus right?”
So were we circa 1929. We were a net creditor back then as well. And we still went over the falls.
Good point.
Economic fundamentals don’t mean much regarding a bubble collapsing. Remember how we were told that California employment was high as prices began to fall? The collapse causes the recession, not the other way around.
Manias are built on psychology; a belief in the greater fool. Prices in Beijing and Shanghai run 40-50 times income. That’s all you need to know about what will happen, it’s just a question of when. Here’s another similarity to the US; many Asian markets have reported “wealthy” Chinese have been driving their bubbles, like Singapore, Malaysia, etc. This is like the Californian specuvestors effect on Las Vegas, Phoenix, even New Mexico. When the CA prices headed down, those rolling equity markets actually fell faster and harder. It remains to be seen if the central bank moves will be the pin that pops their bubble. If it is, it’s won’t be this rate increase or the next, but the idea that the CB will raise rates until the job is done. That’s what broke the psychology in the US.
Along that line of thinking, a hard correction here in western NY will come when the psychology in DC and on Wall Street breaks. We’ve been a “rolling equity market” of theirs for quite some time.
“…but the idea that the CB will raise rates until the job is done.”
Volcker used the same idea to break the back of inflation expectations in the 1979-1982 period. I would like to hear from those on this board who repeatedly raise the scepter of hyperinflation why they think the Fed would not do this again, rather than allow the dollar to collapse?
“Economic fundamentals don’t mean much regarding a bubble collapsing.”
I agree that they don’t mean much while the bubble inflates, at that point its all mania and psychology.
But at some point fundamentals do reassert themselves and once the mania ends, fundamentals do matter.
The collapse is part of the psychological cycle. Mania always ends with depression, it is part of the human makeup. Things are going on in the real world, but they are not causing the mania or the depression. Fundamentals will be denied by the crowd on the way down just as much as they were on the way up, which is why you need to “hold on to your hat”.
You and I will not live to see this happen twice.
“Mania always ends with depression, it is part of the human makeup.”
So the economy is bipolar? Interesting!
“So the economy is bipolar?”
It really is. Keynes tries to make the government be the lithium.
Friedman makes the government the guy who calls the lawyers and fire department at the end of the party, and pays everyone to shut up.
The Austrian Ron Paulers want the government to sit back and watch the zaniness.
Greenspan gave us the anti-depressants.
Bipolar is a great way to think of the economy. Especially when you realize it’s the bad kind of bipolar. You know, the kind where the cops show up after things get broken.
You and I will not live to see this happen twice.
I’ve been personally affected by 4 macro-manias to date.
80’s oil patch bust.
1990 S. Cal Real Estate Bubble
2000 NASDAQ Bubble
Currently busting housing bubble. (this was the biggest)
And one of the root causes was the same: debts that were never going to be repaid.
“Is China about to go over the falls?”
Good question, Ben Jones.
I am curious whether you have any insights you are willing to share about how the collapse of the Chinese bubble might feed back to the U.S. property market?
It’s hard to say isn’t it? We’ve been told how the global economies are more interconnected than ever. And we’ve never seen a global asset bubble. We used to use the term here, unprecedented. As in, we’ve never experienced anything like this before. We also used to say, hold onto your hats!
“We’ve been told how the global economies are more interconnected than ever.”
We’ve also been told repeatedly that the Asian and American economies are decoupled — by one of Goldman Sachs’ economists, no less.
We’ve also never seen a recession/depression occur in modern China- they’ve never had one!
No one, here or there, really knows how they’ll react.
“No one, here or there, really knows how they’ll react.”
The family farm will get a lot busier as the unemployed go home. The factory workers will realize that the big city rat race wasn’t all it was cracked up to be.
alpha-sloth:
China was once the richest and most powerful nation on Earth. They went through a giant recession a long time ago and are still in it. They can not compete against the free world. It’s annoying that continue to play this game with them. Currency arbitrage is SOOoooo passe, isn’t it?
In spite of the financial collapse of all of their banks, some people in Ireland will still be sleeping good thanks to the Swine Flu vaccine:
GPs must return flu vaccine over narcolepsy fears
Scientists have linked drug to sleep disorder
By JEROME REILLY
Sunday April 03 2011
The Heath Service Executive (HSE) will remove all stocks of the swine flu vaccine Pandemrix from GPs’ surgeries, the Sunday Independent has learned.
The vaccine has been linked to the disabling sleep disorder, narcolepsy.
Last week, this newspaper revealed that eight people who received the swine flu vaccine in Ireland have developed the devastating disorder, with most of the cases involving teenagers and young adults.
Now, the HSE has taken the decision to visit GP surgeries around the country and collect the vaccine made by pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline.
http://www.independent.ie/health/swine-flu/gps-must-return-flu-vaccine-over-narcolepsy-fears-2607513.html
WHO done it.
I got a swine flu shot in Ireland, and I
That shot appears to have affected your ability to finish a sentence.
haven’t had a problem.
LOL
How much extra operating costs does the federal government spend getting ready for a shutdown?
W.House directs US agencies to prepare for shutdown
WASHINGTON, April 5 | Tue Apr 5, 2011 9:26am EDT
(Reuters) - The White House has directed U.S. government agencies to prepare for a government shutdown if Republicans and Democrats fail to agree on a budget bill before cash runs out, a spokesman said on Tuesday.
President Barack Obama is meeting with congressional leaders at the White House to try to break a stalemate over how to cut $33 billion in this year’s budget before a Friday deadline when government funding runs out.
With an agreement still far from reached, the White House Office of Management and Budget said agencies were preparing to close their doors even as leaders from both parties worked to keep that from being necessary.
“We are aware of the calendar, and to be prudent and prepare for the chance that Congress may not pass a funding bill in time, on Monday OMB encouraged agency heads to begin sharing their contingency plans with senior managers throughout their organization to ensure that they have their feedback and input,” OMB spokesman Kenneth Baer said.
…
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to be prudent and prepare for the chance that…“the repubican controlled”… Congress may not pass a funding bill in time.
They always toss out the small inconvenient truths…
$700 Billion…per year… on accounts of:
The shores of Miami, FL are not prepared for a D-Day military invasion from: ____________________________ +
Brazil/Venezuela/Cuba/Grenada/Iran/Nigeria/Vietnam/Syria/ MongoliaRepubicans, who control the House of Representatives, aim to boost defense spending and have outlined deep cuts to most domestic programs.
Late in the evening, Republicans released a plan that would push the deadline back by a week and carve out an additional $12 billion in cuts. It also would take an important bargaining chip off the table by funding the Pentagon for the rest of the fiscal year.
Where can I get a good deal on a used Boeing 737 with a slightly-ruptured fuselage?
My sons and I just watched the news story on that landing. The pilots and air traffic controllers ought to get big bonuses for their work.
Too bad they aren’t bankers, so they might qualify.
No big deal. It dumped the cabin pressure. Probably a lot faster than a door seal blowing, but still. No “safety of flight” systems were at risk of being damaged/destroyed. The guys up front probably thought it was a door seal that let go.
What I want to know is if there were any pressurization system write-ups before it finally let go. I’m betting this thing was cracked, and was leaking air bad, before it finally peeled loose.
Had a bizjet come into our shop once, crew was squawking the pressurization system not working. System checked out fine, so we started looking for leaks in the cabin. Found a 12″ crack at the top of the fuselage, at a butt joint, blowing out air like a mofo.. This got the local friendly Feds attention, and an inquiry ensued
(My uncle was telling me that back in the good old days, it was easy to spot cracks, loose fasteners, etc. Just look for the brown nicotine stains from all the smokers in the cabin. You could see loose/cracked panels from a mile away. Now, you have to look a lot harder for them.)
Anyhoo,…..Seems that a lot of paint shops were using metal scrapers/busted off hacksaw blades/razor blades to remove old sealer from the seams between butt-jointed skin panels. Hacksaw blades and aluminum structural components don’t mix.
God, if you people only knew.
What do you think of the 787? Would you fly on the plastic fantastic?
Boeing is like every other company with Ivy League trained management. They think everything can be outsourced but themselves.
So they dump their “lazy union mechanics and engineers”, and farm out the design of critical components to the lowest bidder. Of course, all of these guys say they can handle it, and why would they lie?
So they award the contracts. And come to find out, the winners DON’T have the engineering manpower or expertise. So they try to hire all of those laid off Boeing guys at 50 cents on the dollar, preferably as a “independent contractor” and throw a team together to get it done. But they find out that the guy may not know as much as his resume implied. Or he bales as soon as a better contract/job comes along. And with the way they been doing cram-downs on everyone associated with aviation for the past 20-30 years. So you hire a new guy. And the first thing he starts doing is looking at the previous guys work, starts saying “what an idiot”, and proceeds to reinvent the wheel. Delays ensue, and costs rise. Eventually, Boeing starts sending guys to the contractors to straighten out the mess.
So now, the components show up at Boeing to be assembled. Now, because you have the engineering scattered out worldwide, in different time zones, stuff doesn’t work. So now instead of having a 15 minute sitdown with the engineers and mechs to figure out a fix that is doable, you have to work this out over three days, in two different languages.
And, a funny thing about composites. All the parts have to be PERFECT. Including the tooling that they are built on. Aluminum will “bend” a little. If two aluminum components aren’t quite right, they can be “tweaked” to work. Composites DON”T BEND. If they are not perfect, you can’t make them fit. So you either scrap the part, or devise a workaround. Workarounds add weight, which defeats the purpose of using composites to begin with.
And another thing about composites. The tooling apparantly SHRINKS a little after each heat cycle in the autoclave. So assembly #50 is smaller than assembly #1.
Add to that the Feds have only certified 1-2 Transport category bizjets that were composite airframes. One of them took 10 years to certify. They have never certified something this big carrying this many passengers that is made out of composite.
And from my point of view,the first engineer and mechanic that signs off on the first repair of a composite pressure vessel/cabin must have bowling ball sized ‘nads..
The short version: It will be safe to fly, as far as we know. Whether it will be any better than an aluminum airframe when it’s all said and done is another question. They are already saying the first airplanes aren’t going to make their target weight.
So why bother/take the risk of a composite airframe, if there are no weight/performance/fuel burn advantages?
And, having maintenance of composite airframes farmed out to our Third World brethern may not be such a good idea either. You need (or are supposed to have) certified NDT techs to inspect composites.
I could set up a shop in Costa Rica to pencil-whip composite NDT checks, and pocket the cash until one breaks, then close shop and run with the cash (Sound familiar?). The FAA doesn’t inspect foreign shops. The operators won’t care as long as it’s cheap, and they have a sign off. And the courts won’t have jurisdiction to even put you in jail, or take your money in a civil suit. Life is good, if you don’t give a crap about your fellow man.
IOW, everything is FUBAR. But I digress…….
I could set up a shop in Costa Rica to pencil-whip composite NDT checks, and pocket the cash until one breaks, then close shop and run with the cash (Sound familiar?). The FAA doesn’t inspect foreign shops. The operators won’t care as long as it’s cheap, and they have a sign off. And the courts won’t have jurisdiction to even put you in jail, or take your money in a civil suit. Life is good, if you don’t give a crap about your fellow man.
Which is why it would be really cool if we could pool our capital and invest it in an aircraft maintenance and repair facility run by our very own X-GSfixr.
Which is why it would be really cool if we could pool our capital and invest it in an aircraft maintenance and repair facility run by our very own X-GSfixr.
For your own private plane? I think GS’s point is that you can’t sell tickets to other people at a competitive price if you pay full price for safety and they pencil whip it in the third world.
I know when you pay people min wage you get min work.
And low wages and lax oversight on safety critical jobs means death.
But hey! Killing, injuring and maiming people in the pursuit of profits should be a free market issue, right?!
As for 737s, wasn’t that the same model aircraft that went convertible over the Pacific a few decades ago? Not to mention the incident in 2009. In roughly the same are. (top. passenger area)
No way it could be a design flaw, right?
I know when you pay people min wage you get min work.
Which is something that India is finding out. Story from today’s WSJ:
India Graduates Millions, but Too Few Are Fit to Hire
Fun quote:
Business executives say schools are hampered by overbearing bureaucracy and a focus on rote learning rather than critical thinking and comprehension. Government keeps tuition low, which makes schools accessible to more students, but also keeps teacher salaries and budgets low. What’s more, say educators and business leaders, the curriculum in most places is outdated and disconnected from the real world.
“If you pay peanuts, you get monkeys,” says Vijay Thadani, chief executive of New Delhi-based NIIT Ltd. India, a recruitment firm that also runs job-training programs for college graduates lacking the skills to land good jobs.
The Aloha airlines airplane was an age, cycle, and corrosion issue.
The OEMs test the cabins/pressure vessels up to the anticipated number of “cycles” that the airplane is expected to fly. (Cycle = One flight, including pressurizing the cabin). They test it beyond that to “X” thousand cycles (sometimes 2-3 times the anticipated life of the airplane), then they usually stick it in a water tank, and crank the air pressure into the cabin until something breaks/lets go/blows up, then determine if it needs any additional reinforcement.
Thing is, there’s the engineering hangar, and there is the real world. Sometimes things happen in the real world that shorten the forecast life limit.
After the Aloha deal, the Feds came out with regs to look a lot closer at some of these “old airplane issues”. Especially since nobody operating domestically can afford new ones, with the exception of the leasing companies (and the upstart airlines who don’t “own” anything, other than an operating certificate……).
I wonder how many jets in our ancient American fleet will have cracks found and be grounded?
IIRC, no US carriers are buying lots of new jets.
Flying with the top down (or off) is not recommended when you’re going 450 MPH at 30,000 feet.
Not all planes are ordered by airlines.
American International Group Inc’s International Lease Finance Corp just ordered 33 737s.
AA, Delta, and United are all waiting for 787 deliveries.
True, many are leased. But there is no doubt that the average age of the US fleet is high. The average for each of the majors is 10 and up (18.5 for Northwest, 14.7 for American, 13.8 for Delta, 12.7 for United, etc.)
Then again, a “paid for” jet costs less to operate than one with a monthly payment, that its until it falls apart.
A lot depends on fuel usage/price. MD-80’s are less fuel efficient than the new 737’s. Add in lower maintain costs and it may pencil out that buying a new 737 saves money vs flying an old MD-80.
AA claims 737-800 operating costs are 30% less than MD-80s.
I’ve heard tha the MD-80/DC-9’s weren’t all that desireable.
That said, we have a small airline (Allegiant) that services our local airport (flights to Vegas). Their MD-80s are about 18 years old on average. I’ll bet they picked them up for a song.
I heard about $4 million per, about a tenth of the book price of the new planes of similar size. BTW, beware the granite counters:
The potential additional radiation dose to a person eating seaweed or seafood caught near the Fukushima plant every day for a year would be 0.6 millisievert, the agency said in a statement. That compares to 0.85 millisievert from a year of exposure to granite that comprises the U.S. Capitol, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
P.S. Bloomberg wire was the source.
Ain’t that hilarious, Albuquerquedan?
“Hey, let’s remodel with radiation!”
Yes. With enough granite you do not need a night light.
Does anyone have gambling odds on how this game of federal budget chicken will turn out?
Power Play
Boehner Turns Shutdown Tables on Dems
By Chris Stirewalt
Published April 05, 2011
“The discussion with Democrats will continue, but the House has an obligation to be ready if the White House and Senate Democrats choose to shut down the government.”
– Michael Steel, spokesman for House Speaker John Boehner, discussing plans for an emergency, one-week spending bill
…
Who would get blamed? The Dems, the party of MORE government…or the GOP…the party of LESS government. Hmmmm??
Blame ‘em all. We can easily replace those positions with better qualified (non-liar) personnel. The big corporations will just have to make friends all over again.
One of the risks of shutting down is that anyone working for the government on the upper end of the ability / motivation / qualification scale will naturally feel a temptation to seek other employment during the shut down period.
Blame the FBs!
Well, you can say the GOP is the party of less government if you don’t could the fact that their platform of privatizing much of government has resulted in there being MORE Federal contractors than regular Federal employees.
I’m all for a shutdown. None of this candy-azz weeklong shutdowns either, lets just give everyone in the Federal Government their walking papers for the next six months.
After all, the Republicans say that all of these people in government are overpaid, under worked, and pretty much useless, and that the “free market” has all the answers.
And we all know that the Republicans are the party of virtue, have never been wrong about anything, and are only interested in what’s good for the country, and putting all those leeches back to work. Preferably at $2-3 bucks an hour.
A win-win. What could possibly go wrong?
The Tea Party Republicans should insist the government shut down from now until the end of 2012, just to prove how useless the government really is, and how easy it would be for the private sector to pick up all the government work that otherwise wouldn’t happen after a federal government shutdown.
I’ve heard local pundits say 50/50, but that was yesterday. This stuff changes by the minute.
How are the odds looking twelve hours later?
Government shutdown details begin trickling out to workers
Gallery: Battle over the U.S. budget: Congressional Republicans and Democrats have waged a long fight in trying to agree on a budget plan to slash federal spending and avert a government shutdown.
By Ed O’Keefe, Tuesday, April 5, 9:18 PM
With negotiations over the fiscal 2011 budget collapsing, officials warned that the impact of a federal government shutdown would stretch from the Internal Revenue Service to the Smithsonian Institution to battlefields abroad.
Most federal employees still don’t know whether they would have to work during a shutdown, but Cabinet secretaries and other agency bosses began answering questions late Tuesday by distributing Q & A regarding the effect such an event would have on federal pay and benefits.
The guidance warns that employees may not voluntarily work during a shutdown and that all essential and nonessential personnel would be paid only if Congress approved such funding after a shutdown ended. Any workers scheduled to take paid leave would not be able to and some would be eligible for unemployment benefits if a shutdown continued for more than a few days.
…
Japan’s ocean radiation hits 7.5 million times legal limit
High readings in fish prompt the government to establish a maximum level for safe consumption.
Hirakata Fish Market
A broker walks between fish at the Hirakata Fish Market in Kitaibaraki, Ibaraki Prefecture, trading for the first time since the March 11 earthquake and tsunami disaster. (Toru Yamanaka /AFP/Getty Images / April 5, 2011)
By Kenji Hall and Julie Makinen, Los Angeles Times
April 5, 2011, 4:39 a.m.
Reporting from Tokyo—
The operator of Japan’s stricken Fukushima nuclear plant said Tuesday that it had found radioactive iodine at 7.5 million times the legal limit in a seawater sample taken near the facility, and government officials imposed a new health limit for radioactivity in fish.
The reading of iodine-131 was recorded Saturday, Tokyo Electric Power Co. said. Another sample taken Monday found the level to be 5 million times the legal limit. The Monday samples also were found to contain radioactive cesium at 1.1 million times the legal limit.
The exact source of the radiation was not immediately clear, though Tepco has said that highly contaminated water has been leaking from a pit near the No. 2 reactor. The utility initially believed that the leak was coming from a crack, but several attempts to seal the crack failed.
On Tuesday the company said the leak instead might be coming from a faulty joint where the pit meets a duct, allowing radioactive water to seep into a layer of gravel underneath. The utility said it would inject “liquid glass” into gravel in an effort to stop further leakage.
Meanwhile, Tepco continued releasing what it described as water contaminated with low levels of radiation into the sea to make room in on-site storage tanks for more highly contaminated water. In all, the company said it planned to release 11,500 tons of the water, but by Tuesday morning it had released less than 25% of that amount.
Although the government authorized the release of the 11,500 tons and has said that any radiation would be quickly diluted and dispersed in the ocean, fish with high readings of iodine are being found.
…
The “seawater” was water that was dumped on reactor and has not left the plant site. That little fact was left out of the article but I guess the LA Times cannot be bothered by that little fact when it just ruins a great scare story:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/05/us-japan-idUSTRE72A0SS20110405?pageNumber=2
It’s now only a matter of time before Godzilla appears!!
I will to post this again, contrary to that LA Times story the “seawater” has not left the plant:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/05/us-japan-idUSTRE72A0SS20110405?pageNumber=2
Budget showdown at the White House: Can political Grand Kabuki get any more exciting than this?
House of Representatives
House, Senate Leaders Head to White House for Last-Ditch Dealing on Budget
Published April 05, 2011
In this April 1 photo, House Speaker John Boehner pauses during a news conference on Capitol Hill.
Lawmakers are bracing for another short-term resolution to keep government operating for one more week so Congress can consider a compromise spending plan that has so far been elusive and has forced the Obama administration to offer guidance to workers on what to do in the event of a shutdown.
The one-week measure, which House Speaker John Boehner says is a backup he will only “break glass” on if he has to, would exact stiff demands, and senior budget negotiators say they aren’t sure it has the votes to pass. President Obama is meeting with top-ranking members of Congress Tuesday morning to work on a plan that would make another stopgap unnecessary.
But the last-ditch deal — which is being drawn up because the House needs to allow a three-day buffer before considering a longer-term budget, pushing back a vote beyond Friday night’s deadline for a shutdown — does draw some sharp cuts. It includes $12 billion in cuts from an array of places and a funding plan to provide for the Pentagon for the next six months.
Some of the cuts were part of the plan that failed in the Senate, Fox News has learned.
…
Governor, Republicans unable to reach budget agreement
Monday, 04 April 2011 16:26
Gov. Jerry Brown ended budget negotiations with Republicans last week, saying that despite progress, the two sides could not reach an agreement.
Senate Republicans released a list of 53 demands that needed to be implemented before they would vote for Brown’s budget proposal. The list, issued by Senate Republican Leader Bob Dutton and Sen. Bob Huff, included pension and regulatory reforms, a spending cap and curbs on teachers’ union powers and attorney fees.
“This takes us clearly to a point where we’ll have to decide to pursue solutions that don’t require Republican votes,” said Democratic Assembly Speaker John Perez.
Brown needed only two Republicans from the House and two from the Assembly to vote for his budget bill in order for it to pass, but could not find the support.
Part of Brown’s proposal is to hold a special election for Californians to vote on extending 2009 tax increases.
“Each and every Republican legislator I’ve spoken to believes that voters should not have this right to vote unless I agree to an ever changing list of collateral demands,” Brown said in a statement announcing the halted negotiations. In the statement, Brown pointed out that he supports pension and regulatory reform, as well as a spending cap. Despite making progress in these areas, “the Republicans continued to insist on including demands that would materially undermine any semblance of a balanced budget,” he said.
…
Time to get rid of Prop 13.
Yeah right….Thats what Sacramento needs…More money…That will solve the problem…
lmao +1 scdave
It is not a foregone conclusion that repealing Prop 13 would yield higher revenue. It is entirely probable that eliminating 13 and setting a simple tax on the land value of the property could lower total revenue, albeit many jobs would necessarily be lost. I guess the biggest hurdle would be the “I was here first” crowd who want newcomers to pay their (and their offspring’s) share will always contest and complain. This applies to social services as well. When one loses his/her personal subsidies, he/she often causes strife while complaining about waste in other government programs in which they are not qualified.
“the Republicans continued to insist on including demands that would materially undermine any semblance of a balanced budget,”
“Each and every Republican legislator I’ve spoken to believes that voters should not have this right to vote unless I agree to an ever changing list of collateral demands,”
“This takes us clearly to a point where we’ll have to decide to pursue solutions that don’t require Republican votes,”
Hey, Joey Brown, do as the repubicans WI hero SireScott Walker & the band-of-Fitzgerald’s did, do it without ‘em!
Meg2010 / Beg 2011Radiation in ocean reaches 7.5 million times legal limit:
So their radiadion is at the same level as our national debt?
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/nationworld/la-fg-japan-nuclear-20110406,0,1602823.story
I guess people with jobs have more money than people with no jobs.
Can Brazilians Save South Florida Real Estate?
http://blogs.forbes.com/kenrapoza/2011/04/04/can-brazilians-save-south-florida-real-estate/
If south Florida’s real estate market returns from the dead, thank a Brazilian….
…the middle class is buying up Florida properties, mainly in Miami, thanks to a strong currency, and more spending power than they have had in a generation…
…According to the Association of Foreign Real Estate Investors (AFIRE), Miami’s improving real estate market is due mainly to Brazil’s rising GDP.
“Wealth creation in Brazil is now starting to look for cross-border opportunities, and Miami certainly is a natural,”…South Florida, and Miami especially, could come to depend on attracting foreign buyers like Brazilians while the US job market, and US incomes, continue to hobble along. Real estate prices are rising in Brazil, and still declining in south Florida.
…. Thanks to the bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the US is currently ranked as the best place for capital appreciation in the world real estate markets, according to Real Capital.
Ya gotta admit, Brazil and Miami were made for each other. Two peas in a pod.
Brazil and Miami were made for each other. Two peas in a pod.
I like the USA better than Brazil but I like Brazil better than I like Miami.
Whaddya got against Miami?
I’d think a guy named Rio would like a flashy, trendy, crazy, sexy, criminal, creative, insane, polyethnic tropical hot-spot.
(Granted, it ain’t what it used to be- but what is?)
I guess some billionaires care about their country as well as a buck.
Brazilian Billionaire Eike Batista Reportedly Wants An Apple Computer Factory
http://blogs.forbes.com/kerryadolan/2010/11/19/brazilian-billionaire-eike-batista-reportedly-wants-an-apple-computer-factory/
Eike Batista, Brazil’s richest man and by Forbes’ count the world’s 8th richest person, is trending on Twitter today. Why? The most likely reason: He told Brazilian business magazine Exame that he wants to build an Apple computer factory in Brazil….
…Batista is keen on building up Brazil as a country while he builds his own businesses. …
Rio,
Is this low life of the Fulgencio Batista Family of Thugs?
Why is he a low life? He actually wants to build a factory in Brazil and not in China. I wish we had more billionaires like that.
Check the last name.
Is this low life of the Fulgencio Batista Family of Thugs?
Is it?
IDK, he never invites me to his parties.
Is this low life of the Fulgencio Batista Family of Thugs?
After checking a little, I think not. Looks like he’s from a long time Brazilian rich family. His daddy owned or ran Vale mining and the name is common.
Batista is a Spanish or Portuguese languages surname …… literally meaning “baptist”. It also used as middle name. wiki
Eike Fuhrken Batista, more commonly Eike Batista or simply Eike (Governador Valadares, November 3, 1957), is a Brazilian business baron. He has founded companies in different business sectors, mainly in mining. He is the son of Eliezer Batista da Silva, a longtime head of mining company Vale. As of March 2011[update], he is the eighth richest person in the world. wiki
Cut federal spending by $5 trillion over the next ten years?
It’s just political talk.
Washington politics are a wonder to behold. The GOP is boldly talking about cutting federal government spending by $5 trillion. (Gasp!) That’s $500 billion a year over a period of ten years.
The proposal is nothing but a non-binding outline with no teeth to it. It’s not legislation - it’s a suggestion which Democrats and Republicans can argue about for months prior to the 2012 election.
If Congress seriously wishes to stop unnecessary spending it would just do it. Not approving an increase to the national debt would be a good starting point. Drafting a balanced 2012 budget would be a dramatic move toward avoiding insolvency, too.
Is there waste in government? Absolutely! Is there interest in stopping it? Very little.
And even a balanced budget isn’t a true victory. All it would take is a small increase in interest rates, and the budget would be unbalanced again. Until the balance of the debt is declining at a significant rate, no declaration of victory from the deck of an aircraft carrier allowed.
Then how will they pay all the federal contractors that outnumber regular federal employees?
Oh wait… they mean cuts for J6P.
Silly me.
March Madness: U.S. Gov’t Spent More Than Eight Times Its Monthly Revenue
(CNSNews.com) - The U.S. Treasury has released a final statement for the month of March that demonstrates that financial madness has gripped the federal government.
During the month, according to the Treasury, the federal government grossed $194 billion in tax revenue and paid out $65.898 billion in tax refunds (including $62.011 to individuals and $3.887 to businesses) thus netting $128.179 billion in tax revenue for March.
At the same time, the Treasury paid out a total of $1.1187 trillion. When the $65.898 billion in tax refunds is deducted from that, the Treasury paid a net of $1.0528 trillion in federal expenses for March.
That $1.0528 trillion in spending for March equaled 8.2 times the $128.179 in net federal tax revenue for the month.
The lion’s share of this federal spending went to redeem Treasury securities that had matured during the month—most of which were short-term Treasury bills that have terms of one year or less.
In fact, during March the Treasury redeemed $705.3 billion in Treasury securities of which $623.9 billion were short-term bills with a term of one year or less.
And how much have revenues fallen??
“At the same time, the Treasury paid out a total of $1.1187 trillion”
Something doesn’t add up. The annual budget is what, 3.4 trillion?
How could they spend 1/3 of the budget in one month?
UPDATE 2-Oil could hit $200-$300 on Saudi unrest-Yamani
LONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - Oil prices could rocket to $200- $300 a barrel if the world’s top crude exporter Saudi Arabia is hit by serious political unrest, former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani told Reuters on Tuesday.
Yamani said he saw no immediate sign of further trouble following protests last month calling for political reforms but said that underlying discontent remained unresolved.
“If something happens in Saudi Arabia it will go to $200 to $300. I don’t expect this for the time being, but who would have expected Tunisia?” Yamani told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference of the Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES) which he chairs.
“The political events that took place are there and we don’t expect them to finish. I think there are some surprises on the horizon,” he said in a speech.
Saudi King Abdullah offered $93 billion in handouts in March in an effort to stave off unrest rocking the Arab world.
So far, demonstrations in the Kingdom have been small in scale and police were able to easily disperse a Shi’ite protest in the oil-producing eastern province last month.
But Yamani said that the reluctance of people to participate in popular protests was merely concealing underlying discontent.
“Some people relax about the situation in Saudi Arabia because the Saudi Islamic brand prohibits people to go to the street and to talk,” he said in a speech.
“Oil prices could rocket to $200- $300 a barrel if the world’s top crude exporter Saudi Arabia is hit by serious political unrest, former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani told Reuters on Tuesday.”
Is this essentially making the argument that they are TBTF?
It reminds me of Paulson threatening an economic apocalypse unless Congress would give him a bazooka to keep in his back-pocket.
But Yamani said that the reluctance of people to participate in popular protests was merely concealing underlying discontent.
“Some people relax about the situation in Saudi Arabia because the Saudi Islamic brand prohibits people to go to the street and to talk,” he said in a speech.
ISTR similar things happening in this country after 9/11. There was quite the community spirit afoot in the land.
But the PTB was having none of it. We were told, in no uncertain terms, to stay home, go shopping, and be afraid of…
…all sorts things. They fell under the heading of “terror.”
That’s why I prefer American brands. They just want your money.
TERA!!!!!!!
..because…
When in danger and in doubt
Run in circles
Scream and shout!
“Oil could hit $200-$300 on Saudi unrest”
Hmmm. that would translate into what? $6-$9 a gallon gas?
$300+ to fill up the F-150, huh?
This could get interesting. I could see higher mpg cars actually appreciating.
“Oil could hit $200-$300 on Saudi unrest”
Hmmm. that would translate into what? $6-$9 a gallon gas?
$300+ to fill up the F-150, huh?
This could get interesting. I could see higher mpg cars actually appreciating.
And Yours Truly is looking at getting back into the bicycle business. Have had an opportunity come my way recently. Startup company, but it maybe-just-maybe might have some legs.
Stay tuned…
Yep, one of those bikes from the 50’s with a motor to take you 200 miles on a gal of gas. Not fast but will get you to and from work without being all sweaty when you get there.
Whizzer?
Good luck with the venture!
BTW– I got a speed/death wobble on the new steel frame this weekend as I hauled down a hill, sandwiched by some jerk in front who had passed me earlier so that I had to brake (exacerbating the problem) and a tailgater (car). Holy sheep dip. I had to check my shorts after that one. Do you have any personal remedies for this problem? I looked it up on the interwebs and have some potential remedies, but I hope not to replicate the issue any time soon.
MrBubble
PS: I fought the clip in pedals for years. But what a difference in power generation!
BTW– I got a speed/death wobble on the new steel frame this weekend as I hauled down a hill, sandwiched by some jerk in front who had passed me earlier so that I had to brake (exacerbating the problem) and a tailgater (car). Holy sheep dip. I had to check my shorts after that one. Do you have any personal remedies for this problem? I looked it up on the interwebs and have some potential remedies, but I hope not to replicate the issue any time soon.
If the death wobble was making it hard for you to keep a good grip on the bars, you may be having issues in the headset. It might not be the correct headset for your frame. (This is what the issue was when I experienced the same thing on downhills.)
Thanks for the reply.
“you may be having issues in the headset. It might not be the correct headset for your frame.”
I bought it new and it’s stock except for the fat guy seat they put on for me. I’m going back in this weekend for sure.
Sounds like bearings in the headset are not seated.
Sounds like bearings in the headset are not seated.
I’m thinking that there’s a mismatch between the head tube and the stack height of the headset. It’s important to get those two things right, or else you’re going to have a shaky-wobbly front end. Which is a dangerous thing to have on a bike.
“Sounds like bearings in the headset are not seated.”
It’s brand new and they checked it at the shop when I came back in, ghost-faced (killah). I’ve read up on unloading the saddle and touching the tube with the knees. Hope I don’t need to do it…
Yes it could get interesting as the cost of food and mass transportation should rise accordingly. How much is left to pay that mortgage now!
“I’d buy that for a dollar!”
10 points to whoever get’s the reference.
Robocop.
Such a great laugh by that guy after that line: “Har-har-har!”
We have a winner.
If it hadn’t been for the comedy in that movie, it would have been a real stinker.
It was horrible. And it was awesome.
You think things are bad now. Wait until they raise the price of water. It’s coming.
You think things are bad now. Wait until they raise the price of water. It’s coming.
i posted over a month ago about my municipality raising water rates ~30%
Just got back from the local gas station, el cheapo one. Interesting conversation between to dudes:
Black dude looks over at another black dude who pulled in driving a MB and says “How much is it costing to fill that thing”. “Over sixty-five dollars. It’s a big V8 and the speedometer goes to 170. It’s custom, made for the autobahn, in fact you can’t even rotate the tires because the one’s on the back are a different size than the one’s on the front”. Damn, says the first dude.
just FYI,
the share of the German Autobahn without any speed limit is about 10,000 miles (measured per individual lane, because limits may or may not be on both directions). This equals pretty close to 2/3 of the total miles of the Autobahn in D.
The other 1/3 generally has a limit of between 70 and 80 miles per hour.
It clear what the problem is .
The long term ECONOMIC STRUCTURES of America were usurped by
outsourcing ,out-manufacturing ,tax give-a-ways to the rich ,price fixing monopolies gaining power ,Multi-National Co. hand outs by government ,crazy trade balances and tariffs ,Corporate America passing long term obligations to the government coffers ,Wall Street get rich quick gambling casinos with bogus leverage with no reserves , absurd price fixing health care that defeats the purpose of health care while that industry want to
put the major obligations on to the government while they take the gravy ,
on and on ,tax breaks for the rich that don’t invest in the has been
America .
Talk about the gutting of America by Corporate America ,the Rich, and
Wall Street .
We are in a funding Government crisis and the Rich demand tax breaks
and their blackmail is apparent .Nobody protecting Main Street anymore and expecting the Majority to pay the price ,while millions will be thrown into poverty ,just to keep the rigged and stacked decks for the Powerful
rich ,just so Wall Street can profit .
And Politicians wonder why none of their programs are working ,but they never wonder who they are going to take from .
The takeover already occurred about 20 years ago ,and what has been occurring is just the insanity of what the result of that takeover ended up doing .
Corporations expecting tax breaks after they move Plants to foreign Countries with the expectation of selling to emerging markets World wide ,after they left America in ruins by debt .
At the same time Multi-National Companies and Price fixing Monopolies and Wall Street Casinos expect Main street America to pay for any
shortfalls while they take their ill-gotten gain and ditch America and leave the government and the worker bee holding the bag . And the Politicians don’t have enough common sense to see that their Masters are mad-hatters that see them as cheap to bribe .
Main Stream media simply Cheerleaders for the grand heist that’s been going on for a long time . Bribed parties who are beholding to their advertisers . The Judicial system actually supporting a law giving Corporate America/Wall Street the right to bribe and buy Political power even more .
And all the Mad-hatter see no problem with a jobless recovery and lack of buying power from the Majority . A health care system that is determined to charge half a persons wages for health care ,while not seeing that this form of blackmail won’t work .
It gets more crazy by the minute .
Government has become nothing more than the pasties for Big Business
to the point where all Government functioning is challenged because of the handouts to the FAT CATS .Big Business ability to put the costs on the government while they reek the benefits . Government in turn forced to take it out of the hide of the Majority . Absurd .
Health care where the Private Insurance Companies get the benefits and high profit margins ,while government gets stuck with the patients that
cost the health care system like the Seniors and sick . Is there something wrong with this picture …yes .
A overhaul is needed ,but there has to be common knowledge of who the true Culprits are and the truth of their heists .You can blame it on the seniors ,the Unions ,or whoever they want you to blame it on ,but
if you don’t know who the Culprits are and how the system was designed to pad their pockets ,than you can’t perceive of the proper reform .The power brokers antics could end no other way and it was always about making the heist and transferring the pain to the Majority . This time the price is staggering ,they are killing the host .
Darn those Pasties, I never liked them.
Seriously Wizard, how could an honest and responsible people have come to be governed by such evil clowns?
Darn those Pasties, I never liked them.
Being of Cornish descent, it’s mandatory for me to like pasties. I especially enjoy vegetarian pasties.
prayer in public school, abortion, gay rights, flag burning…
Sorry about the misspelling . I never edit ,when I should . You know what I mean when I talk .
Yes, but it’s OK if I get a chuckle.
Not as if I spell or type very well.
Saw this bumper sticker a few years ago:
Nuke a gay whale for an American Jesus!
Saw this bumper sticker a few years ago:
Nuke a gay whale for an American Jesus!
Back in the 1980s, I worked in a Pittsburgh food co-op that sold tee shirts with that slogan. We staffers thought that tee shirt was a real laugh riot.
Then one of our customers, who was a nun, gave us a piece of her mind. Oh, did she ever.
ISTR that we made that tee shirt a bit less visible in the store. As in, neatly folded on the tee shirt shelf instead of being displayed on the wall.
And I also recall that, after I bought one and wore it out to the suburbs to visit a freethinking friend, she laughed hysterically when she first spotted me.
“Seriously Wizard, how could an honest and responsible people have come to be governed by such evil clowns?”
Many reasons, but mostly centering around collusion at the highest levels (Business Roundtable fnd in 1972) and 24/7 MSM psycho warfare propaganda. An MSM that was being consolidated into just 6 corporations in the 1980s.
how could an honest and responsible people have come to be governed by such evil clowns?
Because most are honest and responsible.
and brainwashed,
and busy,
and harried,
and hard working
and unsuspecting, divided, uneducated, split, distracted, lied to, and subject to state-of-the-art propaganda, etc
“The long term ECONOMIC STRUCTURES of America were usurped by
outsourcing ,out-manufacturing ,tax give-a-ways to the rich ,price fixing monopolies gaining power ,Multi-National Co. hand outs by government ,crazy trade balances and tariffs ,Corporate America passing long term obligations to the government coffers ,Wall Street get rich quick gambling casinos with bogus leverage with no reserves , absurd price fixing health care that defeats the purpose of health care while that industry want to
put the major obligations on to the government while they take the gravy ,
on and on ,tax breaks for the rich that don’t invest in the has been
America . “
And that was just the 1980s!
It was overheard at a coalition meeting between tea baggers and evangelicals that if they’re able to own both branches of govt in 2012 they’re going to establish a new agency called the Vagina Regulatory Commission. All of those attending the meeting were men.
a coalition meeting between tea baggers and evangelicals that if they’re able to own both branches of govt in 2012
Imagine that, just when the South is being reinvested with Blacks & Hispanics & $13.00 per hour
SaturnHummerOldsmobileKia/future Nascar workers.I’m sure they’re all “right to work for less pay” states.
Hey, they chosen another self-applied label to go with New Twit’s “TruePurity™” +… “TruePathtoProsperity™”
House Repubicans ready to unveil ‘Path to Prosperity’:
By William Douglas and David Lightman
McClatchy Newspapers
“Every dollar Rep. Ryan spends on tax cuts for the rich is a dollar he has to pay for by taking away a service that benefits the middle class since his goal is to reduce the deficit.”
Those with Prosperity NOW!, need / require / must have an even better path…to get even MORE! Well here it is:
Taxes. Ryan would create a top corporate and income tax rate of 25 percent. Current top rates are 35 percent.
But but but, he promises to eliminate the tax loopholes. Whadyathink? current rate is 35, they’re paying 15, proposed rate is 25, they’ll be paying 5.
In any given year, half pay NOTHING.
The GOP’s path to prosperity has been strictly for the 1%ers and paved with the bones of J6P.
proposed rate is 25, they’ll be paying 5.
Hint: even that won’t stop their whining, crying, piss & moaning.
Prosperity for whom?
The most ridiculous job interview questions
http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2011/04/05/the-most-ridiculous-job-interview-questions/
“Using a scale of 1 to 10, rate yourself on how weird you are.” — Capital One (COF)
“If you could be any superhero, which one would you be?” — AT&T (T)
“If you could be any superhero, which one would you be?”
Ben Bernanke
Do I get the job?
“If you could be any superhero, which one would you be?”
Gordon Gecko?
Somebody actually has a framed poster of him here at work. I am in h3ll.
If that’s your boss, start sending resumes now.
Not the boss.
I just started back in the IT field after failing to find anything “hugging trees” and the financial sector was hiring and we just had a kid. Money, honey. I’m trying to build my skills up again.
I hear ya. Good luck and hang in there.
“Gordon Gecko?
Somebody actually has a framed poster of him here at work. I am in h3ll.”
Maybe they’re being ironic.
“If you could be any superhero, which one would you be?”
Faster than a speeding U Haul.
More powerful than a foreclosure notice.
Able to live in buildings without making a single payment.
Look! Up in the sky!
It’s a bird. It’s a plane. It’s…
Bubbleman!
Mild mannered Clark Spent once lived within his means but was caught up in the housing mania. He bought a house that he could not possibly ever afford and refinanced it several times while spending lavishly on new cars, vacations and toys that he and Lois had always dreamed of.
After the collapse of the housing market there was nothing left for Clark to do but hunker down in his 4 bedroom 3 bath pool home in a gated community and wait for the man. It was then that he realized it wasn’t his fault, they never should have loaned me the money! I am Bubbleman and I shall lead an army of deadbeats to every courthouse in this land. We shall live in our homes for free for I represent truth, justice and the American Way.
“If you were shrunk to the size of a pencil and put in a blender, how would you get out?” — Goldman Sachs (GS)
I would ask the government to get me out of it.
“Explain to me what has happened in this country during the last 10 years.” — Boston Consulting
That’s going to be one long interview. Or you could just say, “We’re fcuked”.
New Fee Shakes Up a Lending Market
The Wall Street Journal April 5, 2011
The money market has been roiled by a sudden shortage of Treasury securities, another unintended consequence of government involvement in financial markets.
The disappearance of Treasurys in recent days has created a scramble among banks and investors, who depend on a fluid supply for short-term borrowing and lending. It is an unusual event, considering the market is generally awash in Treasurys, with about $9 trillion outstanding.
But recent rule changes mandated by the Dodd-Frank laws have made it too expensive for some banks to offer out their Treasurys holdings as part of a key overnight lending market known as the repurchase or “repo” market.
Banks typically borrow in this market, using Treasurys as collateral, parking the cash with the Federal Reserve and earning a better interest rate. Investors and money market funds use the market to lend out their cash overnight and earn a small return.
The lack of supply was so severe on Monday, and some investors so desperate for Treasurys, that they accepted negative yields—effectively paying to lend money to the banks. That is something that has rarely been seen since the financial crisis.
Exacerbating the problem, the Treasury has stopped selling some short-term Treasurys amid the debate in Washington over the government debt ceiling. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is suctioning up most of the new Treasurys that the government is selling, adding to the shortage of Treasury supply.
“It is a perfect storm of collateral being pulled from the market when it is most needed,” said Thomas Roth, executive director in the U.S. government bond-trading group at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities (USA) Inc. in New York.
Hear that? That’s me playing the world’s smallest violin.
“The lack of supply was so severe on Monday, and some investors so desperate for Treasurys, that they accepted negative yields—effectively paying to lend money to the banks. That is something that has rarely been seen since the financial crisis.”
Wasn’t PIMCO recently dumping treasuries?
If the federal government shuts down, not only will less money go into circulation, as federal workers are likely to do a lot of belt tightening when their paychecks cease, but less money going on to the federal balance sheet will increase the value of U.S. Treasury debt. Cessation of further QEing, which puts new dollars into circulation by using them to buy (new) Treasurys, will also increase the value of the existing pool of Treasurys.
Ergo my hunch is that a federal shutdown and the end of QE would both serve to increase the value of U.S. Treasurys.
B&C Builders Supply in Sparks to close March 31 after 38 years
~ RGJ.COM
Owners Randy Blackwell and Mike Ceccarelli will close B&C Builders Supply on March 31 after 38 years in business, the last 36 years at its current location in Sparks.
“We tried to make it work,” Blackwell said. “Where can we cut this? Where can we cut that? It just didn’t pencil anymore. We just can’t keep feeding the business. If we could see a light at the end of the tunnel, some light, maybe we would strive to stay in business.”
At its peak, before the real estate bubble burst and threw Nevada and the entire country into a recession, B&C Builders Supply had about 39 employees. Recently, Blackwell and Ceccarelli were forced to layoff 10 of the remaining 19 employees.
“It’s just the economy,” he said. “It doesn’t justify staying open. I think we did a bang up job (until the recession), but it’s just not worth staying open anymore. I’m not going to dig a hole to China and not be able to get out. We’ve dug a little bit of a hole, but we’re able to get out.”
Blackwell said stores like Home Depot aren’t the cause.
“There’s just no construction, and we have to sell lumber,” Blackwell said. “You drive around and you don’t hardly see any stick-frame stuff at all. It’s sad that we overbuilt so much that now its down to nothing.”
Blackwell said B&C has about $250,000 to $275,000 worth of inventory to be disposed of, but isn’t sure what route he’ll take.
“I’m not sure if we’re going to do a liquidation and do that on our own, or if we’re going to hire an auctioneer and do an auction. It’s got to go. It can’t just sit here, it’s perishable.”
Good find. I’ve talked to a handful of builders over the past couple of years. They justify high home prices by saying all the lumber is going to China, then Haiti, and now Japan. When I hear it again I’ll be sure to tell them about B&C’s auction.
Bought and paid for judicial system. Jamie Dimon could shoot you in the head and walk - ” he simply did not anticipate the full extent of the gunshot”
Lawsuits over Wachovia collapse thrown out
NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - A Manhattan federal judge has dismissed three shareholder lawsuits accusing Wachovia Corp and its former executives of lying about the bank’s exposure to risky mortgage loans, which caused its near collapse.
“Bad judgment and poor management are not fraud, even when they lead to the demise of a once venerable financial institution,” U.S. District Judge Richard Sullivan wrote in a ruling made public on Friday.
Shareholders claimed that Wachovia loosened underwriting guidelines and aggressively marketed the loans, while publicly touting its risk controls and “very conservative” standards.
But Sullivan said investors failed to show fraud by Wachovia officials including Ken Thompson, the chief executive who bought Golden West and was ousted two years later.
“The more compelling inference is that defendants simply did not anticipate the full extent of the mortgage crisis and the resulting implications for the Pick-A-Pay loan portfolio,” Sullivan wrote.
“Although a colossal blunder with grave consequences for many, such a failure is simply not enough to support a claim for securities fraud,” the judge added.
Quick question
What happens in society when justice and enforcement fail?
You eliminate Social Security and Medicare?
And blame the overpaid union janitors!
After all….. it was the $12/hr janitors that drove the economy into a ditch.
What happens in society when justice and enforcement fail?
Lobbyists, bankers and the rich make more money, the middle-class shrinks and is set against each other and corporate propaganda markedly increases.
Why does that sound familiar?
“What happens in society when justice and enforcement fail?”
The seeds of a revolution germinate.
Ding Ding Ding
We have a winner.
Revolution, violence, theft, vandalism, taking the law into your own hands. All things we can look forward to.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/steffy/7469090.html
Doofuses smart with their own money
In the recent financial crisis, bank executives were among the biggest doofuses (doofi?). Most insisted they couldn’t have seen the crisis coming. No one could. It was — cue the Wall Street cliché machine - “the perfect storm.”
A recent study by researchers at the University of Colorado and the University of New Hampshire, rains all over the perfect storm argument.
“We find that CEOs are 30 times more likely to be involved in a sell trade compared to an open market buy trade,”
Why do I suspect the doofi banksters COULD see the bailouts coming?
Oh ,the old “we didn’t see it coming defense .” No mention of underwriting standards that no reasonable person would find anything but risky and would
not be explainable by any theory of risk /
Court system in TBTF favor .
A mega-mansion fit for a model: Gisele Bundchen’s $20 million dream home is coming along nicely ~ Daily Mail Reporter 5th April 2011
Well, they needed somewhere big enough to house three Super Bowl trophies.
Gisele Bundchen, 30, and her American footballer husband Tom Brady are in the middle of building a jaw-dropping $20 million mega-mansion.
Construction has been under way on the sprawling 22,000 square-foot home for over a year, and the palatial pad is coming along nicely.
Fit for a (fashion) queen
The eight-bedroom mansion sits on 3.75 acres high in the hills of Brentwood, California.
The huge plot dwarfs neighbouring properties, including Arnold Schwarzenegger’s and Heidi Klum and Seal’s homes.
It boasts a lift, lagoon-shaped pool, wine cellar, parking for six cars, weights room and a covered bridge connecting two buildings.
New England Patriots star Tom, 33, purchased the plot of land for $11 million in 2008, before they were married.
According to TMZ, at the time Tom took out an $8.225 mortgage to be paid back over five years.
He also had plans drawn up for the property which were later scrapped because the house wasn’t big enough, according to the celebrity website.
But clearly the couple see no need to scrimp, considering she earned $25 million (£15m) last year.
And in September, Tom signed a four-year contract extension with the Patriots worth a staggering $72 million - making him the highest paid player in the NFL.
While their dream home is coming along nicely, the couple - who have a one-year-old, Benjamin - are emroiled in legal trouble over their bodyguards.
Three of their security team, Miguel Solis, Manuel Valverde and Alexander Rivas, are due in court in Costa Rica on April 29 over allegations they fired at photographers during Tom and Gisele’s 2009 wedding.
The three men will attend a private oral hearing in Puntarenas after charges were filed by Agence France-Presse photographer Yuri Cortez and Rolando Aviles of Costa Rican newspaper Al Dia.
But Tom has previously hit back at claims his staff used weapons against the paparazzi. ‘[It's] absolute total b.s,’ he told Sports Illustrated in June 2009. ‘We found two guys on our property, and we told them to get out. Our security guys didn’t even have guns. There were no shots fired.’
“We are living in the worst monetary instability in the last 3,000 years. The prospect for precious metals has seldom been more promising.”
-Robert Mundell, Nobel Prize-winning economist
Thanks a lot, Al and Ben.
The prospect for bullets not made from “precious metals” has seldom been more promising.”
Hi-Ho-Silver!
“Who are those masked hedge-fund bandits?”
Cuba, partners to drill 5 Gulf wells this summer
By Andrea Rodriguez
Associated Press / April 5, 2011
HAVANA—Cuba and partner companies will begin drilling five oil wells in the Gulf of Mexico this summer in hopes of locating enough crude to justify the costly exploration, an official said Tuesday.
Tweet 2 people Tweeted thisSubmit to DiggdiggsdiggYahoo! Buzz ShareThis “The prospects are very promising” of finding valuable reserves, said Manuel Marrero, an official with the Ministry of Basic Industry.
Cuba’s domestic production is exclusively heavy oil with a high sulfur content. Its offshore Gulf waters could contain large quantities of lighter, sweet crude, although a test well in 2004 turned up only modest deposits.
Studies since then have pointed to “oil traps” in the marine floor, persuading partner companies to take on the expensive task of exploration in deep water, Marrero said during an earth sciences convention.
The drilling is expected to run through 2013.
The Cuban government has designated 59 blocks in Gulf waters encompassing 43,200 square miles (112,000 square kilometers) where private energy companies have said they could drill deep-water test wells.
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2011/04/05/cuba_partners_to_drill_5_gulf_wells_this_summer/
Surplus in shadows: Unlisted homes in financial limbo threaten Florida prices
By Kimberly Miller Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 6:51 p.m. Sunday, April 3, 2011
The forecast could be dim for the Sunshine State as a looming market of distressed and discounted homes threatens a struggling recovery.
According to a new report from the National Association of Realtors, Florida’s “shadow inventory” ranks No. 1 in the nation with 441,461 homes statewide. California is in second place with 227,961 homes.
Shadow homes are ones in limbo — bank repossessions, those with delinquent loans, and ones in foreclosure that are not yet listed for resale.
The size of the shadow is grim news for Florida’s home values, which could take a dive as the properties are listed and start trading hands for cheap.
“That cloud just keeps hanging over us,” said Tim Becker, director of the University of Florida’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies, referring to the shadow inventory. “The question right now is: When will the homes come on the market and over what period of time?”
Bill Richardson, president of the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches, has no doubt that the national association’s shadow inventory numbers are correct.
Although the shadow means a “longer and slower road to recovery,” Richardson’s concern over its effect is minimal.
The supply of homes for sale in Palm Beach County is down to 10 months from 24 months in 2009, meaning there is room for added inventory.
Also, Richardson thinks the banks will not dump all of the distressed properties on the market at once — a move that would certainly crash prices.
“I think they are doing this strategically,” Richardson said of the banks. “They are not dumb. They know if they release a whole bunch of inventory at the same time, it will drive prices down.”
But national mortgage backer Fannie Mae said its policy is to put homes on the market as soon as they become available.
“Fannie Mae doesn’t have a shadow inventory of bank-owned properties,” spokeswoman Amy Bonitatibus said. “We list properties as soon as they are available to be listed.”
Becker also disagreed that banks have a strategy that will help control price declines.
“The banks I talk to say there is not much deliberation about spacing these things out,” he said. “They just want to get them off their books. The longer they hold onto them, the more it ties up their capital.”
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/foreclosures/surplus-in-shadows-unlisted-homes-in-financial-limbo-1371949.html - 89k -
HA! Now they’re counting shadow inventory. Was it all that long ago when they were saying it didn’t exist? LOL
Filed under: “Linda the lunch Lady (with an AA degree) Lives Lavishly!
Linda should volunteer for the “TruePurity™” or “TruePathtoProsperity™” campaign to “please-re-elect-us” and see if they toss her an employment biscuit, (although it might be tough being that she could be over-qualified with that AA degree)
Walker demotes son of campaign contributor:
By Patrick Marley of the Journal Sentinel
The younger Deschane has no college degree, little management experience and two drunken driving convictions.
The move comes one day after the Journal Sentinel reported that Brian Deschane, 27, had landed an $81,500-a-year job in Walker’s administration overseeing environmental and regulatory matters and dozens of employees at the Department of Commerce.
Walker chief of staff Keith Gilkes recommended Brian Deschane for a job with the Regulation and Licensing Department. In January, he became bureau director of board services, a position that paid $62,728 a year.
A great example of how hard work and intelligence is all you need to make it in this country! After, this is a nation that rewards merit!
Two DWIs would get a teacher fired. How about some, “accountability in government?”
I have tried to post this up above several times including the link but it refuses to post. So I will not include the link but it is Reuters story. The text talks about the “seawater” which is several million times above a safe level but adds the key fact that the seawater is in a sluice at the plant and has not left the plant. Leaving this key fact act seems like a deliberate attempt to hype the story.
act = out
MSM? Hype?! Deliberate?! Omit facts?! Perish the thought! They would never do that!
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=183656
Why Dodd-Frank is inadequate (by design, no doubt).
Based on this story, a budget agreement may be close at hand.
John Boehner: Democrats ‘win’ in government shutdown
Speaker of the House John Boehner and House Republican leaders speak with the media after Obama’s briefing room appearance regarding the budget in Washington, D.C. | John Shinkle/POLITICO
By JOHN BRESNAHAN & JAKE SHERMAN | 4/5/11 6:18 PM EDT
Speaker John Boehner is warning his Republican colleagues that Democrats would “win” a government shutdown and the GOP would suffer a political catastrophe if the federal government runs out of money at the end of this week.
“The Democrats think they benefit from a government shutdown. I agree,” Boehner said during a closed-door, 90-minute meeting on House Republicans on Monday night, according to several lawmakers who attended the session.
…
“…would suffer a political catastrophe…”
Yes, because we all know that the best thing for this country is the political success of the Republi-crat Party.
Boehner is such a tool.
The blah, blah, blah gift, that keeps
givingcollecting…(Note the unlisted fact is the hourly rate of compensation, more than… Linda the lunch lady who lives LAVISHLY?
It appears that Bristol is far past the grunt-it-out on-ramp to a “TruePathtoProsperity™”
ANCHORAGE, Alaska - Tax documents show unwed mother Bristol Palin earned more than $262,000 for her role in helping raise awareness for teen pregnancy prevention in 2009.
The most recent data for The Candie’s Foundation that’s posted online by research firm GuideStar shows compensation at $262,500 for the now-20-year-old daughter of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee.
Bristol Palin was 18 when she was appointed as a teen ambassador for the New York-based foundation in 2009, months after giving birth to son, Tripp. She and the 2-year-old boy’s father, Levi Johnston, are no longer together.
Palin family attorney John Tiemessen and foundation officials did not immediately return calls for comment Tuesday.
Palin, who still works for the foundation, told The Associated Press last year that girls would think twice about having sex if they knew how tough it is to be a mother.
She said she “wasn’t prepared at all” for the dramatic changes in her life since becoming a mom.
$260,000 has gotta help a little now post-child-birth don’t think Bristol?
She and the 2-year-old boy’s father, Levi Johnston, are no longer together.
And I’ll bet, with such a rich payday for Bristol, Levi will be lawyering up and placing all sorts of visitation demands on Bristol.
Y’know, the kind of demands that won’t have much to do with his actual desire to be in Tripp’s life. But they will have a lot to do with lining the attorney’s pockets.
My 20 year old might go whack Bristol herself, when she finds out how much she got paid for “raising awareness”
Does anybody think there is a single 16-20 year old female in America that pays one naonsecond of attention to Bristol Palin?
My daughters are shooting to get on “Teen Mom”. Pays $75,000 for a 3-6 month contract, unless you can kick your boyfriend’s ass, in which case it pays double. Look it up.
But who are we kidding?
Like “book contracts” and “speaking fees”, hiring the evil spawn of the Republicrats for ridiculous amounts of money is just a legal means of buying the government.
Maybe I should run for Congress.
“X-GSfixr for Congress. Because he needs a day job. And Insurance”.
“Fixr for Congress. Yeah, he goes to to Ti##ie bars occasionally. And cusses a lot. So what’s the problem?”
“Fixr for Congress. Before it’s too fooked to fix”
Ah, the problems that arise whilst prognosticating living by “TruePurity™” for-everyone-but-us type “standards”
What a floozy.
On the return trip from Death Valley today, we passed through Adelanto, CA once again from the other direction (finally got the spelling down!). This time, in addition to a vast sea of recently-built tract homes planted right squat in the middle of the world’s largest Joshua tree forest, I also noticed the high-voltage power lines. Not much else to see anywhere nearby — in particular, I have no idea what sort of industry (other than home businesses, such as backyard porn shoots and prostitution) could provide the incomes needed to pay the mortgages on so many tract homes. On second thought, scratch the backyard porn shoots — the homes are far too closely spaced for that to work.
Today we also discovered a housing bubble hell hole a lot closer to Death Valley than Adelanto: Namely the lovely town of Ridgecrest, CA. In addition to three gas stations, the town features some sizable recently-built tract home developments, courtesy of D R Horton, plus plenty of real estate For Sale signs throughout the part of town we traversed. The view of the back side of the Sierra Nevada would be lovely, were it not for the lack of water, industry or shade trees to protect one from hellish temperatures.
China Lake. Big military secrets ops area.
Geez, Mr. Bear…you was just this [...] close to the 8th Wonder-of-the-
WorldCA State:California City, CA
Hope you & yours had a good time visiting the Valley-of-Death!
We survived, even had a few lovely experiences in the shadow of the Valley of Death.
The only actual near-death experiences came on the road, when my sons’ reenactment of the Civil War in the back of the minivan nearly led to fatal collisions on the freeway.
Best experience was hearing an old-timer recount tales of “Scotty” at Scotty’s Castle. It seems Scotty was an old time scam artist who convinced a New York City banker that he had discovered a mother lode in Death Valley, but could only extract it and share the wealth with the banker if given a generous advance. Though Scotty was later quite often seen around town buying plenty of fine clothing, fancy neck ties and liquor, one shop proprietor noted, with considerable puzzlement, that Scotty was never observed to purchase a pick axe, which was considered an essential piece of equipment for an old-time prospector.
Later Scotty formed a partnership with Albert Johnson, a wealthy Chicago businessman who paid for the construction of what is today known as Scotty’s Castle. Albert had more money than he knew what to do with, which turned out to be sufficient not only for “castle” construction, but also to keep Scotty comfortably fed and clothed. When the banker whom Scotty had scammed finally tracked him down and tried to collect on the bad debt, Scotty successfully claimed that all the possessions he used were actually purchased and owned by Albert.
Later, Albert sued Scotty for the full value of everything Albert had ever provided, which was quite a tidy sum. Scotty was penniless, and hence unable to make good on the debt. Albert subsequently managed to deduct the full amount of the bad debt from his income taxes.
Any story where both a NY City banker AND the IRS get outsmarted does my heart a great deal of good.
Uh-oh. A Joshua Tree forest. We HBB old-timers know what *those* are good for.
Ridgecrest is one of my favorite spots for great desert living. Central location to the good fishing up north as well as skiing. Can hit Vegas, LA easily. Use to be an easy drive into SD until Temecula area expanded. Loved to hike and horseback ride in the Sierra’s.
I didn’t mean to be unkind in my assessment. It didn’t seem like a bad place, provided you have a good air conditioner. But I question the suitability for laying down tract home developments, especially in light of the many, many FOR SALE signs seen along our path. There did not appear to be much critical mass of economic opportunity there to support large bedroom communities.
Good ol’ Judge Thomas, he keeps gives living proof to his self-imposed motto: “Why, shut-my-mouth!”
Cruel but Not Unusual:
Clarence Thomas writes one of the meanest Supreme Court decisions ever.
By Dahlia LithwickPosted Friday, April 1, 2011
One of the reasons the truth came to light after 20 years is that Gerry Deegan, a junior assistant D.A. on the Thompson case, confessed as he lay dying of cancer that he had withheld the crime lab test results and removed a blood sample from the evidence room. The prosecutor to whom Deegan confessed said nothing about this for five years. While Scalia pins the wrongdoing on a single “miscreant prosecutor,” Ginsburg correctly notes that “no fewer than five prosecutors” were involved in railroading Thompson.
In 1963, in Brady v. Maryland, the Supreme Court held that prosecutors must turn over to the defense any evidence that would tend to prove a defendant’s innocence. Failure to do so is a violation of the defendant’s constitutional rights. Yet the four prosecutors in Thompson’s case managed to keep secret the fact that they had hidden exculpatory evidence for 20 years. Were it not for Thompson’s investigators, he would have been executed for a murder he did not commit.
As Scott Lemieux points out, by all-but-immunizing Connick for the conduct of his subordinates, the court has created a perfect Catch-22, since the courts already give prosecutors absolute immunity for their actions as prosecutors (though they may still be liable for their conduct as administrators or investigators). By immunizing their bosses as well, the court has guaranteed that nobody can be held responsible for even the most shocking civil rights violations.
In 1985, John Thompson was convicted of murder in Louisiana. Having already been convicted in a separate armed robbery case, he opted not to testify on his own behalf in his murder trial. He was sentenced to death and spent 18 years in prison—14 of them isolated on death row—and watched as seven executions were planned for him. Several weeks before an execution scheduled for May 1999, Thompson’s private investigators learned that prosecutors had failed to turn over evidence that would have cleared him at his robbery trial. This evidence included the fact that the main informant against him had received a reward from the victim’s family, that the eyewitness identification done at the time described someone who looked nothing like him, and that a blood sample taken from the crime scene did not match Thompson’s blood type.
A jury awarded Thompson $14 million for this civil rights violation, one for every year he spent wrongfully incarcerated.
But this week, writing on behalf of the five conservatives on the Supreme Court and in his first majority opinion of the term, Justice Clarence Thomas tossed out the verdict, finding that the district attorney can’t be responsible for the single act of a lone prosecutor.
Both Thomas and Scalia have produced what can only be described as a master class in human apathy.
While the DA’s office may be protected, misconduct by an individual under the aegis of that office is not protected from civil actions. At least that is my understanding from when I carried a badge.
Apparently not anymore!
Clarence Thomas can rot in hell. I remember his confirmation hearings. He is as sleazy as they come.
And how about that little faux pas his wife made recently? Real class act, there.
This is bad people. Really bad. It means that civil rights are no more.
As Scott Lemieux points out, by all-but-immunizing Connick for the conduct of his subordinates, the court has created a perfect Catch-22, since the courts already give prosecutors absolute immunity for their actions as prosecutors (though they may still be liable for their conduct as administrators or investigators). By immunizing their bosses as well, the court has guaranteed that nobody can be held responsible for even the most shocking civil rights violations.
Am I assuming correctly that the Connick in question is Harry Connick Senior, the father of the singer?
My Idiocracy award nominee for the day:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/O/ODD_POLICE_DOG_TEASING?SITE=FLTAM&SECTION=ENTERTAINMENT
BTW, I think it calls for a neutering, the man and not the dog.
Sounds to me like:
1) No budget agreement will be reached tonight.
2) Polly’s assertion that a federal shutdown is inevitable if no agreement is reached by tonight will prove inaccurate, as the rules are about to bend.
Budget talks go nowhere, raising fears of federal shutdown
McClatchy Newspapers
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
WASHINGTON — The first federal government shutdown in more than 15 years drew closer Tuesday as President Barack Obama and congressional leaders failed to make progress after back-to-back meetings at the White House and on Capitol Hill.
Obama and Congress remained billions of dollars apart and at odds over where to find savings after an 80-minute West Wing meeting that included House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev. In the meeting, Boehner floated the possibility that he may seek as much as $40 billion in cuts, $7 billion more than the two sides have been discussing for the past week.
Growing irked by the prolonged negotiations, Obama demanded that the congressional leaders “act like grown-ups.”
“If they can’t sort it out, then I want them back here tomorrow. And if that doesn’t work, we’ll invite them again the day after that,” Obama told reporters in a rare appearance in the press room.
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GOP budget plan freezes federal pay through 2015
Gallery: Battle over the U.S. budget: Congressional Republicans and Democrats have waged a long fight in trying to agree on a budget plan to slash federal spending and avert a government shutdown.
By Ed O’Keefe, Tuesday, April 5, 8:53 PM
The budget outline unveiled Tuesday by House Republicans seeks to freeze federal salary schedules through 2015, reduces the federal workforce by 10 percent and requires employees to pay more toward their retirement benefits.
The document, an early step in writing a federal budget for the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1, further seeks to reduce spending on non-security agencies to the levels of 2008, while accepting savings the Pentagon has proposed in its budget.
“The federal government’s responsibilities are dependent on a strong federal workforce. Federal workers deserve to be compensated for their important work but pay levels, pay increases and benefit packages need to be reformed to be in line with the private-sector,” says the report released by House Budget Committee chairman Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.).
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Government Shutdown Memo
9:57 pm April 5, 2011, by Jamie Dupree
The federal government is finally starting to tell workers in Washington, D.C. and around the nation what would happen if no budget deal is reached this week and the government runs out of money on Friday night at midnight.
In guidance issued on the internet by the Office of Personnel Management, the agency in charge of setting federal worker policy, federal officials began to answer what are certain to be a boatload of questions about how a shutdown would impact various departments.
Here is the initial guidance from OPM to the federal workforce:
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The Potential Impact of a Lapse in Appropriations on Federal Employees
Overview
If the current continuing resolution expires at 12:01 a.m. on April 9, 2011 without passage of an FY 2011 appropriations bill or a further continuing resolution, Federal departments and agencies will be required to execute contingency plans for a lapse in appropriations (more commonly referred to as a “shutdown”). These contingency plans detail which agency activities are allowed by law to continue to operate, and which activities must stop. Employees whose salaries are funded through annual appropriations will not be able to work and will be furloughed, unless their duties qualify under the law as “excepted” to continue to work during periods of lapsed appropriations. During a shutdown, non-excepted employees are not permitted to work as unpaid volunteers for the government. Any paid leave (annual, sick, court, etc.) approved for use during the furlough period must be cancelled. An excepted employee who is absent from duty during the shutdown must be furloughed during such an absence.
Federal agencies do not have the authority to pay their employees during a shutdown, regardless of whether the employees are working as “excepted” or furloughed as “non-excepted”. “Excepted” employees will receive pay for hours worked when the Congress passes and the President signs a new appropriation or continuing resolution. Congress will also determine whether “non-excepted” employees will receive pay for the furlough period.
Federal employees’ health benefits continue during a period of lapsed appropriations lasting less than 365 days, regardless of the “excepted” or “non-excepted” status of the employee. Federal Employees Group Life Insurance coverage continues for up to 12 consecutive months while in a non-pay status without cost to the employee or the agency. Both Federal Long Term Care (LTC) and Federal Employees Dental and Vision Insurance Plan (FEDVIP) deductions will cease for “non-excepted” employees. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) will provide information on how non-excepted employees can continue LTC and/or FEDVIP coverage, as well as details on other federal benefits, through its website (www dot opm dot gov). OPM will update the information on its website regarding these matters no later than Friday, April 8th.
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As Shutdown Looms, Agencies Brace for Its Impact
By SHERYL GAY STOLBERG and ROBERT PEAR
Published: April 5, 2011
WASHINGTON — The National Zoo would close, but the lions and tigers would get fed; Yellowstone and other national parks would shut down. The Internal Revenue Service could stop issuing refund checks. Customs and Border Patrol agents training officials in Afghanistan might have to come home. And thousands of government-issued BlackBerrys would go silent.
This is what a government shutdown might look like.
With budget talks between Republicans and Democrats far from resolution, official Washington braced on Tuesday for a replay of the Great Government Shutdowns of 1995 and 1996. For weeks, the Obama administration has been quietly examining the experience of the mid-1990s as a kind of shutdown survival guide. Now those preparations have kicked into high gear.
The White House Office of Management and Budget directed the heads of federal agencies on late Monday to share contingency plans with senior managers. On Capitol Hill, the chairman of the Committee on House Administration warned “nonessential employees” on Tuesday to turn off their BlackBerrys during a shutdown, or risk punishment for working while on furlough.
And at the Smithsonian Institution, employees were preparing for a lot of disappointed tourists. The 1995 and 1996 shutdowns occurred in the dead of winter. Now it is spring break; Linda St. Thomas, a spokeswoman, said the Smithsonian has sold 23,000 advance tickets for cafeteria meals and Imax movies in April. Her staff was prepared to print “Closed Due to Government Shutdown” signs to tape to windows in their museums.
“I got a call yesterday from a woman in Cincinnati; she was bringing a big family, two cars, they were going to drive in from Ohio on Friday,” Ms. St. Thomas said. “She wanted to know, what should she do? I said, ‘I don’t know.’ ”
In any shutdown, the government does not completely cease functioning, of course. Activities that are essential to national security, like military operations, can continue. Air traffic control and other public safety functions are exempt from shutdowns. Federal prisons still operate; law enforcement and criminal investigations can continue. Employees deemed essential to the functioning of government can come to work. (In ego-driven Washington, a federal shutdown forces high-powered workers to confront their self-worth. Many federal officials insisted on showing up in previous shutdowns, apparently unable to come to grips with idea they might not be considered vital.)
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“The Internal Revenue Service could stop issuing refund checks.”
Would a government shutdown translate into a federal tax holiday? After all, with no IRS workers to process tax returns, it wouldn’t make much sense for anyone to send them in, would it?
After all, with no IRS workers to process tax returns, it wouldn’t make much sense for anyone to send them in, would it?
Wouldn’t they still be able to check the date of the postmark once they return if the shutdown were to extend through the deadline for filing taxes?
Prediction: A federal government shutdown will soon show up in the Case-Shiller/S&P index numbers for DC and San Diego, two places whose household economies are heavily dependent on federal government salaries.
This story goes far to explaining why no agreement could be reached on the budget.
Government shutdown would have limited impact on Congress
By ANDY MEDICI | Last Updated: April 5, 2011
If there is a government shutdown, senators and members of Congress will have a far different experience than most federal employees.
Not only will senators and congressman continue to be paid in the event of a shutdown, but they have complete discretion to keep their entire staffs working throughout the shutdown.
According to shutdown guidance for the legislative branch issued Tuesday by the House Administration Committee, congressmen and senators can keep on any staff they believe assist them in fulfilling their constitutional duties or who protect life or safeguard property.
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Is this supposed to be some kind of great scientific revelation?
Executive Health April 04, 2011, 17:00 EST
Too Many Hours at Work Might Harm the Heart
Study of British workers found 11-hour days raised heart disease risk 67%
By Ellin Holohan
MONDAY, April 4 (HealthDay News) — It may be time to add a long workday to the list of risk factors for heart disease.
A new study has found that office workers in England significantly increased their chances of having a heart attack by working more hours than their peers.
The study, conducted by researchers at University College London, found that employees who regularly worked 11-hour days or longer were 67 percent more likely to develop heart disease than those who worked seven- or eight-hour days.
One U.S. expert said many factors could account for the rise in risk among those tied too long to the office.
“Those working long hours may have less time for exercise, healthy eating and physicians visits,” said Dr. Gregg C. Fonarow, associate chief of cardiology at UCLA’s David Geffen School of Medicine. “They may be exposed to more stress, get less sleep and engage in other behaviors which contribute to cardiovascular risk.”
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POLITICS
APRIL 6, 2011
Budget Talks Head to Brink
Parties Far Apart on 2012 Spending, Long-Term Vision as Friday Deadline Nears
By NAFTALI BENDAVID, JONATHAN WEISMAN and CAROL E. LEE
Republicans and Democrats stumbled one day closer to a government shutdown on Friday, as the two parties escalated what has become a broader battle over Washington’s role in the U.S. economy.
Political leaders on Tuesday continued to talk past each other on federal spending, offering little evidence they could soon reach an agreement to avert a shutdown of the government this weekend. Damian Paletta has details.
The two fights—one over funding the government for the next six months, the other over a sweeping plan to reshape the government for decades to come—showed how far apart the two parties are on basic fiscal issues ahead of the 2012 elections.
A Tuesday White House meeting called by President Barack Obama featured a series of frustrated exchanges between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) and House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio), who upped his demand for spending cuts this year to $40 billion, according to people familiar with the session.
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Democrats, Republicans fail to reach budget deal
By Alan Silverleib and Tom Cohen, CNN
April 6, 2011 1:26 a.m. EDT
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- White House, congressional budget negotiations fail to reach an agreement
- Without an agreement, the government will shut down after Friday
- Reid and Boehner meet and agree to keep working on a solution
- Federal workers paid by appropriated funds will be furloughed in a shutdown
Washington (CNN) — Top White House and congressional negotiators failed to reach agreement Tuesday on a spending plan for the rest of the current fiscal year, bringing the federal government closer to a shutdown at the end of the week.
Key Democrats rejected a Republican proposal to keep the government running for one more week at the cost of an additional $12 billion in cuts. Republicans, meanwhile, dismissed Democrats’ insistence that there had been an agreement to cut $33 billion for the rest of the fiscal year.
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I like the way this adviser thinks!
April 4, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT
Long apps, short the Fed
Banking on the fastest growing marketplace in history
By Cody Willard, MarketWatch
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Shorts/Sells:
The so-called “too big to fail” banks, all of which would be insolvent and illiquid if not for the trillions in ongoing outright welfare they get from the Republican/Democrat regime. My favorite play here is the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF 16.50, -0.0065, -0.04%) . This fund represents a bunch of financial and mortgage servicers that gets me short the TBTF stocks. I also like Lender Processing Services (LPS 32.29, +0.15, +0.47%) in this area,which can be thought of as a ratings agency in terms of its culpability. Its business model of rapid execution on foreclosure proceedings helped the banks create this crisis. The scope of their potential liability far exceeds that of the ratings agencies. Without the ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) profits that the banks enjoy, LPS is exposed as the scapegoat for what ever comes next. In the light of day, a mutli-trillion dollar hangover, can feel pretty bad. Our mission at this point is to try to profit on the pain of their comeuppance.