The Housing Bubble

The Marin Independent Journal reports from California. “The number of Marin foreclosures in the first quarter of this year spiked 28.1 percent compared with the same period last year, by far the biggest increase in the Bay Area. The number of additional homeowners who fell behind on their mortgage also edged up in Marin, the only county in the region to see such an increase. The figures, released by San Diego-based DataQuick, came as a surprise to some observers in Marin, where the rate of foreclosures still remains one of the lowest in California despite the recent increases.”

“‘Who knows what’s going on out there?’ said George DeSalvo, a broker who specializes in bank-owned properties. ‘I’ve never seen anything like this in my entire life…We’re starting to see more foreclosures in cites like Tiburon, Mill Valley, Corte Madera, where we almost never saw foreclosures.’”

“Many properties have only recently been placed on the market months after the lender foreclosed, said Robert Bradley, president of Bradley Real Estate in San Rafael and a specialist in bank-owned properties. ‘What you’re going to see in the next couple of months is a ton of foreclosures coming out and being put on the market,’ Bradley said.”

The Press Democrat. “Sonoma County has entered the fifth year of the nation’s foreclosure debacle, and each week about 40 borrowers here continue to lose their homes. Lenders foreclosed on 519 county homes in the year’s first quarter, according to San Diego-based DataQuick. That represented an increase of 17 percent from the previous quarter and 5 percent from a year ago.”

“With so many homeowners still at risk of losing their homes, ‘it’s going to be a two- to five-year process to bleed all these properties into the market,’ said John Duran, president of the North Bay Association of Realtor’s Santa Rosa Chapter.”

The Willits News. “The number of foreclosures in Mendocino County is setting new pace in 2011 with an average of 34 per month. This is the largest number of foreclosure sales in a quarter since the recession began. The inventory of bank owned property sitting empty is up to an estimated 260 county properties. This, even as the timeframes between issuing a notice of default and final sales lengthens to 263 days, according to ForeclosureRadar.”

“The pace of sales shows little sign of reaching an end as a substantial inventory of past issued notices of default remains even while new issuances have averaged 59 properties a month so far in 2011. This compares to an average of 51 notices of default in 2010. County properties in default had loans which originated from 2004 through 2008 with most originating in 2006 and 2007.”

“Within California the worst hit area is Madera County with one in 123 homes involved in foreclosure. Los Angeles leads the state with 12,172 properties in foreclosure.”

The Merced Sun Star. “Foreclosures in Stanislaus, Merced and San Joaquin counties dropped to levels not seen since 2007, according to just-released statistics from DataQuick, a real estate data provider. The region’s foreclosure rate has fallen to about half what it was during the 2008 peak of the mortgage mess.”

“That doesn’t mean times are good. Just better. Since the foreclosure crisis began four years ago, about 66,500 Northern San Joaquin Valley homes’ mortgages have defaulted and lenders have taken them back. In Merced County, lenders repossessed 607 homes, which was 5.2 percent more than during the same months last year. Since mid-2006, 12,680 Merced homes have been foreclosed. That’s about 18 percent of the homes and condos in the county.”

The Bakersfield Californian. “The personal income of Kern County residents is just 70 percent of the state’s average income and is declining, according to new federal data, The decline in personal income late in the decade coincides almost perfectly with the collapse of the residential real estate market and the banking crisis that followed. That probably accounts for some of the drop, said Louis Medina, homeless project manager for United Way of Kern County.”

“‘Certainly the people who were using their home equity as banks weren’t able to do that anymore,’ he said.”

“McAllister Ranch has a buyer. The unfinished 6,000-home golf course community in far southwest Bakersfield has been stuck in bankruptcy limbo since September 2008. But an investment affiliate of the original master developer, Irvine-based SunCal Cos., earlier this month won a competitive auction in bankruptcy court.”

“McAllister Ranch became an international symbol for what went wrong at Lehman Brothers, the now-bankrupt New York investment bank, after a $235 million loan from Lehman Commercial Paper Inc. defaulted in spring 2008. That summer, Fortune magazine ran a feature highlighting the unfinished project and its Greg Norman-designed golf course going to weeds. Other media outlets, including the BBC, latched onto the Bakersfield site, where billboards boasting the upscale community long loomed over a barren, dusty patch surrounded by nodding oil rigs.”

“The affiliate, PVCO Land Holdings LLC, paid $71 million in all for three projects: McAllister Ranch and two developments in Riverside County. In all, Lehman loaned more than $300 million to McAllister Ranch and the two Riverside projects.”

The Los Angeles Times. “Growth has altered the skyline of downtown Long Beach over the last decade. New high-rise condo towers dot Ocean Boulevard. Older buildings have been converted into lofts, and a new shopping center and entertainment complex rose on the site of the long-shuttered Pike amusement park. But when the U.S. Census Bureau released population data earlier this year, some in Long Beach were shocked to learn that between 2000 and 2010, the state’s seventh-largest city added only 735 residents — a growth rate of 0.2% and far below the national average of 9.7%.”

“Long Beach is one of several large cities in Southern California to see growth plateau — or in some cases decline — in the last decade. Long Beach Councilman Robert Garcia said his city’s numbers merely reflected the trend of Californians moving farther inland, away from coastal cities, and he advised against any assessment of Long Beach’s future based on the count. ‘If I was walking through downtown and I saw decay, empty buildings, half-built condos, parks that were unfinished, then I’d be worried,’ he said. ‘But the reality is that crime is at a 30-year low, development is happening, we’re still building workforce housing, and I think we’ve got a bright future.’”

LA Downtown News. “MPG Office Trust, the commercial real estate giant that once dominated the Downtown office building scene, is staring at a mountain of debt that it can’t afford to pay and is at risk of defaulting on several of its most prominent buildings. The situation has some wondering if the company that played a key role in shaping the Downtown Los Angeles skyline is built for the future.”

“‘It’s the end of the era for [MPG],’ said Steve Marcussen, executive director of commercial real estate firm Cushman and Wakefield, who believes that lenders on MPG’s core properties will have little incentive to renegotiate their loans to keep MPG in its assets.”

The Orange County Register. “We at this blog have decided to start tracking Orange County’s most exclusive listings. Nah, just homes formally listed for $20 million or more. What did we learn in April’s review of Redfin‘s search of brokers’ most-pricey MLS listings? Still, 10 homes in this club. One significant change this month: The Corona del Mar estate at 169 Shorecliff has had its price cut by $5.445 million in $22.5 million. So it’s now tied for 9th priciest.”

“3 of top 5 are in Laguna Beach. That means that 5 of the 10 now show price reductions, price cuts that total $38 million!”

The San Gabriel Valley Tribune. “Distressed properties accounted for more than half of the homes sold in Los Angeles County in March, down from 55 percent in February but up from 49 percent a year earlier, the California Association of Realtors reported. L.A. County’s 51 percent might seem high, but other regions posted percentages that were far higher. The Inland Empire - which many consider to be ground zero for the housing meltdown - ranked among the worst. In San Bernardino County, 71 percent of the region’s March sales were distressed properties. That was down from 76 percent the previous month and 75 percent in March 2010, CAR reported.”

“Riverside County’s rate of 67 percent for March was down from February’s 71 percent and the year-ago rate of 73 percent. ‘Consistent with the state as a whole, nearly all the counties for which we have data also experienced an improvement in distressed sales,’ CAR President Beth L. Peerce said in a statement. ‘However, distressed sales in most of the counties were higher than a year ago, as the market continues to work through large numbers of troubled mortgages.’”

“Solano County had the highest percentage of distressed property sales for March (76 percent), while Kern County tied with San Bernardino County at 71 percent.”

The Inland Valley Daily Bulletin. “City officials believe construction of the Colonies development has been beneficial to the city overall, despite years and millions of dollars spent on litigation surrounding the project. A document dated in June 2002 estimated the project would generate about $4.3 million for the city annually by 2011 - about twice the actual tax receipts. However, the estimates were based on a complete build-out of the development, and the economic downturn has had an effect on all city revenues, said acting City Manager Steven Dunn.”

“Mary Wright of Upland believes the Colonies residential and commercial developments have done nothing for the city. ‘It’s overcrowded our schools, especially Pioneer Junior High School,’ Wright said. ‘In Upland it’s all about the tax revenue.’”

“Wright said she had attended all the open houses for the development. ‘Half the houses over there are in foreclosure, and there’s a big battle over the water,’ she said.”

The Desert Sun. “A miserable winter, the soaring Canadian dollar and bargain prices are among the reasons snowbirds have embarked on a home-buying spree that has made the Coachella Valley one of the few places in Southern California where sales are rising. Many Canadians are paying cash. And unlike in the U.S., the housing market in most Canadian provinces has remained strong, enabling buyers to set up a line of credit against current real estate assets to finance property purchases in the valley.”

“That’s especially true in western Canada, where real estate values have soared in a region with an oil-based economy. The Canadian Real Estate Association reported the average house price in February was $792,000 in Vancouver, $588,000 in British Columbia and $454,000 in Toronto.”

“‘I’ve got a lot of friends who are really interested in purchasing a home because our dollar is cookin’ right now,’ said Liz Malinka, a Vancouver resident who bought a home in Palm Springs. ‘We come down here and go, ‘Wow,’ Malinka said of valley home prices.”