The Double-Edged Sword Of Distressed Homes
The Frederick News Post reports from Maryland. “The number of foreclosures in March in Frederick County may show a decrease, but the figures…’are not reflective of the actual delinquency rate of mortgage customers,’ said Patrick McLister, an attorney with Salisbury and McLister. Mortage companies halted thousands of foreclosures to scrutinize documents that had been authorized with little or no review — a practice that has come to be known as ‘robosigning.’ ‘Mortgage companies have not acted on these delinquencies to start the foreclosure process because they are busy reviewing files which were caught robosigning,’ McLister said.”
“McLister and Carlton Boujai, secretary of the Maryland Association of Realtors, said there will be another wave of foreclosures caused by the moratorium placed on lenders. Bob Sawchuck, an agent with Mackintosh Inc. Realtors, said 202 homes were sold in March in Frederick County, up 30 percent from February, but down 81 percent from March 2010. Sawchuck said the high figure for March 2010 can be attributed to a federal tax credit program in place at the time that gave incentives, especially to first-time buyers.”
“‘Since the Homebuyer Tax Credit was drawing to a close at this time last year, sales were artificially inflated by those who wanted to take advantage of the tax credit,’ Sawchuck said.”
“The double-edged sword of distressed homes creates a field of lower-priced homes for potential buyers, but at the same time means current homeowners are faced with lower prices for their houses or lower appraisals when values are based on foreclosed homes in the same neighborhood. That can be a factor in new home sales, according to Steve Seawright, president of the Frederick County Builders Association. Unless a homeowner can get what they consider a good price, they are unlikely to sell and move up to a new house, Seawright said.”
The Virginia Pilot. “Since 2000, two financial institutions from the Old Dominion – a tiny savings and loan in Danville and a savings bank in Reston – have ended up in the FDIC’s hands. The paucity of failures, however, masks the growing pressure on several of Virginia’s community banks. During the past year, at least eight of the 80 state-chartered banks in Virginia have been ordered by regulators to improve their operations and strengthen their capital.”
“One of the eight, Norfolk-based Commonwealth Bankshares Inc., reported earlier this month that its Bank of the Commonwealth subsidiary needed $27.6 million of additional funds to comply with federally mandated capital ratios. ‘Even if we succeed in raising the capital, we may need to raise additional capital in the future due to additional losses or regulatory mandates,’ Commonwealth said in an April 15 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.”
“Investors have been skittish about buying shares of community banks, partly because of fears that the quality of the banks’ loan portfolios will continue to deteriorate. ‘They want to know why they’re injecting the capital, and they don’t want to throw their money into a black hole,’ said Allan Bach, a bank analyst with the Richmond-based brokerage firm Davenport & Co.”
“Among community banks with shortages of capital, there’s one common denominator: the damage inflicted by heavy losses on their real estate lending. Commonwealth, for instance, reported having $162.6 million of nonperforming assets at yearend. The bulk of that consisted of $126 million of real estate and construction loans and $32 million of property taken back through foreclosure.”
The Free Lance Star in Virginia. “The slumping real estate market has taken a heavy toll on the Celebrate Virginia developments, leading to millions in overdue payments and dwindling reserves to pay the bonds that financed roads and utilities.”
“Project developer the Silver Cos. and its more than 100 investment partners owe about $5 million in back taxes and special assessment payments in Fredericksburg and Stafford County. In addition, reserve funds to pay the project’s bondholders have dropped below half their required levels. The situation, which involves perhaps the area’s most prominent developer and one of its largest projects, shows the extent to which the recession has hit home.”
“Thus far, all bond payments have been made on time, and it would likely be more than two years before the developers would risk losing land in any tax sale. Silver has potential deals that could generate the revenue to get back on track. But if the deals don’t pan out, and the real estate market doesn’t improve, the Celebrate Virginia CDAs could be at risk of missing bond payments, and the delinquent landowners could lose their property unless they raise money by putting up more cash, selling land or some other means.”
The Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. “Signs of economic recovery continue to prove elusive to homebuilders in Chesterfield County, but conditions aren’t as dire as they were two years ago. For the first quarter of this year, county building inspectors issued 143 residential certificates of occupancy. That marks the fourth straight year the first-quarter number has declined and represents a decrease by nearly two-thirds of the number issued in the first quarter of 2007.”
“‘That’s a good indicator of how bad the market is,’ said developer Casey Sowers, whose family’s 1,300-acre mixed-use Roseland project, once planned to have as many as 5,500 homes, has yet to be built. ‘There’s no credit out there for builders,’ he said. ‘This is a speculative business, so no credit means no building.’”
“The market isn’t ready for widespread construction, said William P. Brown, the Dale District representative on the Chesterfield County Planning Commission. ‘I believe we’ve seen the worst,’ he said. ‘But there’s a glut of foreclosures. And until that glut is cleared,’ there won’t be big movement from builders.”
The Cary News in North Carolina. “The developer behind Amberly, the 1,100-acre community in northwest Cary, has handed over the remaining sections of the project to a California firm that works with federal regulators to sell troubled assets. Amberly is just the latest high-profile Triangle real estate development to run into trouble. Several condominium projects in Chapel Hill and Raleigh have had foreclosure proceedings started in recent weeks.”
“Amberly, which was conceived at a time when credit flowed freely to ambitious real estate developments, has been beset by financial problems since the housing bubble burst. About 40 percent of Amberly is undeveloped, and nearly all the land has been caught up in the project’s funding problems. Plans for the project originally called for as many as 5,000 houses.”
The News & Record in North Carolina. “An 18-hole golf course in Rockingham County is on the auction block after its owners defaulted on $2 million in loans. Greensboro National Golf Club, created in 1994 by Eden orthopedic surgeon Titus Plomaritis Jr., went into foreclosure on March 25, according to court documents. The 342-acre golf course and club — valued at $5 million — along with unsold residential lots, are scheduled for auction.”
“Greensboro National resident Rebecca Cipriani said rumors have circulated in the neighborhood about the foreclosure. But she was not worried about its effect on residents since homeowners are not responsible for the course’s maintenance. ‘People are talking about (the foreclosure) but nobody really knows if anyone is going to do anything with it,’ said Cipriani, who serves as register of deeds for Rockingham County. ‘It’s such a beautiful property. I can’t envision that they would do anything with it other than continue it as a golf course.’”
The News & Observer in North Carolina. “The developer of 140 West Franklin says the luxury condominium and retail project now under way in downtown Chapel Hill will succeed because of its location, financing and luck. Ram Realty Services rebid the eight-story project after the recession hit and contractors were hungry for work, chairman Peter Cummings said. That reduced costs from $76 million to 55 million, including the town-financed parking structure.”
“‘We’re lucky,’ Cummings said. ‘If the town approval process was 12 months faster, we might have started building at the wrong time.’”
“Ram has contracts on about half its 140 planned condominiums, Cummings said. It needs a dozen more before it can draw on its loan, he said. Ram has contracts on about half its 140 planned condominiums, Cummings said. It needs a dozen more before it can draw on its loan, he said. The condos in 140 West are now priced from one-bedroom units in the $290,000s to two-story, 3,000 square-foot terrace homes for $1.3 million.”
“The possible foreclosure of the nearby Greenbridge project has raised questions about 140 West Franklin, which along with the redevelopment of University Square, will transform downtown Chapel Hill. Greenbridge has sold only 36 of its 97 units, and Bank of America has begun foreclosure proceedings.”
“Cummings said he’s not worried that Greenbridge’s troubles will lead to a price war if that project lowers prices to sell more units. ‘You don’t want to see a project fail in the middle of town,’ he said, then added: ‘I shouldn’t say fail. You don’t want to see a project in stormy seas. The one thing I’m saying categorically is we have a better location.’”
“They’ve lost $8.65 million of their own money, but the developers of Greenbridge say they have five investors willing to help save the $56 million condominium project from foreclosure. Unable to sell units since liens were put on the property last fall, developer Tim Toben says, they now hope to find a buyer committed to sustainable, energy-efficient housing.”
“‘We recognize, because of this death spiral we’re in, that our equity is lost,’ he said.”
“If the bank had been more flexible, Toben thinks the developers would have been able to continue selling units and keep the property out of foreclosure. ‘I think it’s a really sad story for green building; we are being treated like we are Vegas condo project,’ he said. ‘Five years from now, I have no doubt that this will be a home run,” he said. “We still believe in this thing. Believe it or not, we’d probably do it again.’”
“The double-edged sword of distressed homes creates a field of lower-priced homes for potential buyers, but at the same time means current homeowners are faced with lower prices for their houses or lower appraisals when values are based on foreclosed homes in the same neighborhood.”
Why is this a problem, when distressed home sales ARE the market? What other representation of current market values would these pundits propose: The list price of non-distressed homes that never sell because nobody is willing to pay the list price?
The median wish price perhaps?
I know more people who are higher up the property ladder who are currently defaulting in Bend. Not to mention my wife’s home; Defaulted April 2010; it will not be released to the bank until at least September 11, when the auction has been rescheduled. When will the repo company for Bofa make up for lost time seeing how they did not process any foreclosures here from Oct 2010 thru Sept 2011. Seems like quite a few would be waiting in line for their time at the courthouse steps.
Friend of my father bought in 07 for 500k. He is in his first month of default; his home is worth 300k and thinks that alone is reason enough not to pay. He is also seeing the way the bank has treated defaulters thus far; he sees their actions interfering with price discovery and also making a rebound in values seem impossible in the medium term.
So the distressed properties will keep going back to the bank around here; and at a larger amounts relatively speaking. But the bank is slow on the uptake. The rate that they are made available to the house consumer/end user is awfully slow and not getting much faster so I see shadow inventory glut as an ongoing problem. Bofa has 500 of them in our county that are going to be sold at auction in August/Sept(if they are not rescheduled). But what about all the defaulters that have defaulted between Oct 10 and Aug 11. Another round fo’ sho’.
Hey at least they acknowledge that lower prices ARE better for buyers. That in itself is an improvement over alot of cheerleader reporting.
“Among community banks with shortages of capital, there’s one common denominator: the damage inflicted by heavy losses on their real estate lending. Commonwealth, for instance, reported having $162.6 million of nonperforming assets at year end. The bulk of that consisted of $126 million of real estate and construction loans and $32 million of property taken back through foreclosure.”
In hindsight, perhaps so many real estate and construction loans made by so many banks was a monumentally bad idea.
Back in 2005, I posted on a series of FDIC reports on bank concentrations in RE lending. It was state by state and the failures we see today fit those with the highest percentages; Georgia was number one, Florida and Nevada right behind, etc. It brings up the point: you can have all the regulators in the world and it doesn’t do any good if they don’t act.
Maybe Ben Bernanke will be able to clear up lingering questions about the Fed’s lax regulatory oversight during his “Meet the Press” session today?
“‘Mortgage companies have not acted on these delinquencies to start the foreclosure process because they are busy reviewing files which were caught robosigning,’”
And what happens if/when the review shows that they can’t prove a legal chain of ownership of the specific mortgages, and therefore they don’t have a legal right to foreclose?
‘O-oh, MERSy, MERSy me…’
It would be most interesting when the dust finally settles on the robo-signer debacle to take stock of how many home debtors in mortgage default managed to claim squatter’s rights due to MERS title claim issues.
I think it’s a problem that’s just starting. Maybe they can run back through the records and rebuild a chain of title, but it ain’t gonna be fast or easy, and might not even be possible, without some new ‘agreement’ between the banks and the various state attorneys general over how to gloss over gross violations of a few centuries of accepted legal practice.
‘they don’t have a legal right to foreclose’
I hear this from people sometimes. What happens is eventually some one like me shows up and takes their junk to the dump.
I hope you’ve discussed this with an attorney, and are adequately covered in case the people you’re working for are shown to have no legal standing to evict somebody.
An attorney? I think this is what most people don’t get from the media stories. The law is on my side, as long as I follow the rules. First of all, 99% or more of the time, these people are long gone. Half of the 1% are tenants, who paid their rent and the landlord kept the money. The few “owners” that hold out probably want a cash for keys deal. And some of these people refuse to get their stuff from a second home. Second houses are very common in AZ foreclosures.
A few times I’ve had someone tell me they were going to call the sheriff. I tell them go ahead. And the few times I’ve spoke with law enforcement in those situations, they understood what I was doing.
Jeebus, if you don’t make payments on a car you bought on credit, what happens? Somebody comes and gets it. What happens if you don’t make your house payments? Same thing.
I’m not saying it’s a criminal thing, where the cops show up and arrest you, I’m saying more of a civil thing- wherein, say, a person could show that they had no mortgage whatsoever, or were entirely up to date in all payments, and therefore there was no legal right to evict him (we do see the occasional story such as this). One could imagine an independent contractor like you could be included in the ensuing lawsuits, even if you could show in court that you had done nothing wrong.
Just thought it would behoove you to discuss all this with a lawyer, and make sure you CYA legally, but I assume you already have.
If Ben has a work order from a Bank ,or agent of a Lender ,doesn’t that cover him ?
We on this blog have more knowledge of this robo-signing than the general public and they don’t seems to be putting this legal violation by Banks in headline news . Most of those people that leave are either broke or have no intentions of wanting the property anymore . Sure there are going to be a few that want to go for a free house ,but they need money to pay a lawyer on something that just might end up being a delay process on the foreclosure if the foreclosing agent can show chain of title .
I believe one of the reasons Hank Paulson wanted the Government to buy up these toxic loans was in part to correct the title problem in that process of that transfer . Back in 2005 they had some cases where some lawyers were claiming faulty transfer of loan liens . Anyway as the matter progressed I think the Banks thought they could do anything and get the support of the Government ,aside from long standing law .
I know of someone in 1989 that bought a house and they made a error in escrow regarding not recording the loan . The clown that bought the place thought they would get the house for free because of a recording error . The Court ruled it was error and enforced the loan . That’s why I think the Court system will rule in favor of proof a loan was made and deem it error regarding the chain of title Just my opinion .
“That’s why I think the Court system will rule in favor of proof a loan was made and deem it error regarding the chain of title Just my opinion .”
Yes, I expect something similar will happen, too. They’ll simply have to recognize the MERS transfers, because otherwise the system would implode.
But I think there are going to be a lot of problems remaining, especially concerning ownership of individual loans, even if the MERS chicanery is legitimized. In addition to ignoring the rule of law, I’m willing to bet MERS cut a lot more corners, too.
“I’m saying more of a civil thing- wherein, say, a person could show that they had no mortgage whatsoever, or were entirely up to date in all payments, and therefore there was no legal right to evict him (we do see the occasional story such as this).”
Wouldn’t this be the rare exception, and in case of this situation, wouldn’t the lender that sent Ben out to dispose of the home’s content be liable for the error?
“Wouldn’t this be the rare exception,”
Rare exceptions occur. Thus far the record-keeping of the banks doesn’t instill much confidence.
“wouldn’t the lender that sent Ben out to dispose of the home’s content be liable for the error?”
Probably. I don’t know. I’m not a lawyer. But I do recognize the value of determining such things in advance, with a good attorney.
Anyone who is that upset about this sort of thing sues the deep pockets. That is the bank/servicer, the trust that holds the bonds or someone like that. The guy who shows up to make sure the windows are closed is not that person. Besides, they would want him as a witness as to the behavior of the bank. Even if they did sue him, the cost of hiring an attorney is about all there could be. He isn’t going places under the instruction, “We don’t have any idea if we are allowed to take over this place or not, but please secure it for us anyway.” The likelihood that Ben would be liable for anything under state law as long as he makes sure he goes to the right address is pretty minimal.
(Not legal advice)
I’ve had clients try to put me in a bad situation. There are all sorts of mistakes regarding addresses, etc. Sometimes I recognize something’s not right and walk away. I’ve told some of these companies, ‘I can see you have a problem here, but I’m not going to make it my problem.’
Which is exactly right. You are covered if they make a mistake in the paperwork, but that doen’t mean you shouldn’t use your brain. All it costs you is a trip back to a place where the residents actually expect you if the address turned out to be correct.
95050-95054 update…
Inventory has bumped up about 20% in the last 30 days or so…Prices for property that is well located are probably 10% off their peek and still sell…The bargains, price wise (if you want to call it that) are with the foreclosures & short sales but most of those properties are in terrible condition…
Still seeing 1-5 SFRs coming on the market each day in my area (although some of those are sellers resetting their DOM). I even saw a new listing come up Easter Day.
Foreclosures and REOs are the “bargain” listings here. From what I can tell, about half just need maybe an appliance or two and a little elbow grease to make them livable. A couple years ago just about every foreclosure I toured was trashed, so… an improvement of sorts there. Anyone else noticed this?
Shorts sales are a mixed bag. Few sell right off the bat, but they generally sell faster than most non-distressed houses — but only when the lenders (working with the loanowners) are aggressive in lowering the price every few months.
Kim,
I am seeing short sales in non-disclosed status here in my So Ca area. A house on the market for $400K, yet it was sold (or refi’d) in 2007 for $635K. You would assume they paid cash (and are taking a hit), but the volume of these listings say otherwise. Weird, don’t you think?
$400K for our criteria is still in suspended animation in these parts.
I saw a lot of those non-disclosed short sales when I started following the market a few years ago. I don’t think a lot of buyers went on the recorder of deeds web site to do that level of research, but I did. In fact, one house that was of interest back then had a lis pendens but the listing agent - kid you not - “swore on (his) life” that the “owner” wasn’t in foreclosure. I don’t see that nearly as often now that foreclosures and short sales don’t carry quite the mark of shame when “its happening to everybody”. Listing agents are probably now doing more thorough homework upon accepting the listing. At the very least they’d want their sellers talking with the lender and getting paperwork, etc. started.
Kim,
Thank you for your insight, as you were a big help to me.
So….the million dollar guess is; when do you guys think this will bottom and then how many years to 2005 levels.
Me, I think we bottom 2012. and then 10 years to 2005 level.
Lane
2005? I thought we were going back to 1985.
2005 levels in 11 years? Not likely, even with hyper-inflation.
“Me, I think we bottom 2012.”
It took 7 years (1989-1996) for CA real estate to bottom out in the previous bust. Your prediction is for the biggest real estate bubble collapse in the history of mankind to bottom out in a mere 6 years (2006-2012), and that despite unprecedented government intervention to stop home prices from dropping in mid-correction.
I can’t see this happening, but hats off to you if your instance of the classic serial bottom call (’home prices will bottom out next year’) proves accurate.
I have not been making any calls for the bottom, but I was right on the top 2005…. because my wife and I were down in Fl. and thats when the light went off. Just thinking about hedging a little inflation. I don`t really want to be a 1 or 2 house landlord but I might need to. I`m agree with about everyone on here but I do know in most cases a lot of wealth in generated from a bad situation.
Lane
2012 may be a reasonable guess for the bottom in some parts of the country (e.g. Detroit, Las Vegas, FL) — just not coastal CA. California also took a very long time to bottom out during the last bust, as I already discussed.
P.S. If you are not keen to get onto the landlording business or gold investment bandwagons, there are certainly other options for hedging inflation, including REITs and foreign currency CDs.
I think Silicon Valley prices will be lower in 2012 than in 2011, but the bottom will come later, maybe 2014-15.
I think Silicon Valley prices will be lower in 2012 than in 2011, but the bottom will come later, maybe 2014-15.
I would agree. I’d say “boring” USA bottom 2012. High end parts of NorthEast and Coastal California bottom 2014. (Right after the World Cup of course)
The bottom is going to vary by metro area. Some places are bottoming now, I would say. But the California cities and the DC will be the last strongholds of the flippers.
And by market segment within a metro area. In the DC area the bottom end has fallen pretty quickly and hard in exactly that way that the upper end hasn’t. I have no idea when the exact bottom will be, partly because I AM pretty sure that the bottom will be a pretty flat one in most markets. It will be a lifetime before we see the sort of crazy appreciation in real prices that characterized the bubble.
I think I’m seeing that too. In the outskirts, older converted apartment condos are routinely listed under 100K. In the gangsta hoods in the city, smaller SFH are consistently under 200K.
I’m also seeing a huge difference depending on the age of the house. Blocks of bubble housing — attached product made of panels and windows and fake brick from five years ago, you know what I mean — is still listed at wishing prices. Sturdier established neighborhood stuff, one house at a time, is what’s dropping like a rock.
I decided to check in today on the off chance that the blog was back in action, and I feel like I got an early Christmas present. Even a Florida thread from earlier this week!
Yes, hopefully it lures some regular contributors back…nice to see you.
“They’ve lost $8.65 million of their own money, but the developers of Greenbridge say they have five investors willing to help save the $56 million condominium project from foreclosure. Unable to sell units since liens were put on the property last fall, developer Tim Toben says, they now hope to find a buyer committed to sustainable, energy-efficient housing.”
“‘We recognize, because of this death spiral we’re in, that our equity is lost,’ he said.”
“If the bank had been more flexible, Toben thinks the developers would have been able to continue selling units and keep the property out of foreclosure. ‘I think it’s a really sad story for green building; we are being treated like we are Vegas condo project,’ he said. ‘Five years from now, I have no doubt that this will be a home run,” he said. “We still believe in this thing. Believe it or not, we’d probably do it again.’”
A couple of years ago, I was having a drink down at the Hotel Congress. I was joined at the bar by a very sad local real estate developer. He was sad because his sustainable, energy efficient spec house project just couldn’t get funded.
He went on at great length about just how sustainable and energy efficient the place was. And, let me tell you, having a beer in hand made his spiel a whole lot easier to take.
Any-hoo, I was tempted to say something like “What do you expect? You’re building a spec house. In this housing market, who’s going to loan for a spec house?”
But I held my tongue.
This was more due to the fact that the lobby of Hotel Congress amplifies any and all sounds than any attempt toward diplomacy on my part. After all, when it comes to berating clueless developers, it’s best not to awaken Congress’ second and third floor hotel guests.
Was looking in Trulia at some homes in Bakersfield. Small 2/1 850’s for about $40,000. As money in the bank makes 1%, and you buy one of these things and charge $100 per month rent you make 3% for each $100 rent you charge.
Might explain why some want to buy real estate now a days.
It is true you could get hurt, but could you get hurt more by buying that way, then by suffering the loss caused by inflation and loss of value to the dollar?
I had a friend in Bako who bought several units somewhat cheap. After a month they stopped paying rent. It took six months and $4000 in legal fees to get the parties evicted. They stole the bathroom fixtures, kitchen appliances, etc and put holes in the walls. He ended up filing for BK never to become a landlord again.