Bits Bucket for April 28, 2011
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Realtors Are Liars.
Geithner lies.
Bernanke lies.
Obama lies.
Any Bankster lies.
Criminals lie.
Your freedom is in the hands of liars.
Hey let’s ALL join in a “bidness” + “Gubmint” citizen-taxpayer class action law suit!
Oh, wait…
Why, I do believe even Berkshire Hathaway got caught lying too!
The Hapless Homeloaner
Anywhere USA July 2004
Scene #1
Harry Hapless enters family room with a hand-full of refinance papers where Mary and the kids are watching the 60 inch Plasma.
(Harry) I just got off the phone with Bob from Mortgage World and guess what gang, we`re going to Hawaii!
(Mary and Kids) Yeah!
(Mary) Oh Harry, I am so glad I found a man who knows how to handle finances. Poor Betty next door never goes anywhere and her awful husband makes her drive that old 1999 Toyota just because it`s paid for.
(Harry) laughing… That Dave, always saving for a rainy day.
(Billy) That`s because they don`t know how to make their house work for them, right Dad.
(Harry) That`s right son, well that and knowing how to juggle those 0% credit card offers. But there will be plenty of time to explain that on the flight to Hawaii.
Tune in next time when Harry, Mary and the kids visit the Mercedes dealership.
“Tune in next time when Harry, Mary and the kids visit the Mercedes dealership”
Watched a car carrier full of new Mercedes going to the dealership which is in the middle of a new expansion. Not to diss on them. If people work hard to get there and they’ve got their families’ finances in order, go for it. Have at it. But it’s interesting to see how many people are buying new Mercedes right now. OTOH, they’re probably all leases.
Hey, I juggled those 0% credit card offers a couple times too. But back then the CC raised your credit limit too. Actually I think it helped my FICO.
Spoilers: Does Harry ask howmuchamonth at the Mercedes dealership?
No, he buys his Benz with a Home equity loan.
He also buys a second home for 290K, a three bedroom condo with 3 bathrooms lavished with Granite countertops, ½ mile from the beach with borrowed money from his home equity line and puts down 80K. Then he loses his job and fights with the bankers to lower his Condo price to 125K because he has no job. He also hires and attorney and demands that the Gobmint should just give him the house.(btw this is true)
All this because he is special – the gimmme free sh*t mentality
You forgot - he is also a victim…
“All this because he is special – the gimmme free sh*t mentality”
Doesn’t mean he’s gonna get it.
He also buys a franchise makes 120K profit in the first year. He got the money to buy the franchise as his wife who is a teacher in Palm beach county inherited some money. He keeps the business in his wife’s name as he has been collecting unemployment while running the franchise. Now he is taking his family to a lavish vacation to the Caribbean all included resort and multiple vacations. Oh I forgot to add he also refinishes a bathroom in his main house with MARBLE.
Thank god he got away from the Granite as it was so last decade. (all true)
That’s a big risk he’s taking for a few hundred bucks a week.
But yes, we have become a nation of cheats and scammers. My mom is aghast at how careful you have to be these days. Even she can tell that just about everyone is a crook.
(Harry) That Dave next door is always whining about his property tax going up and up and up. He should be thanking all of us flipper families for raising the value of his home for him while he just stays in the same little old house all of those years. The way I see it, he should buy me a beer (Harry chuckles out loud).
(Mary) His wife has to be drooling at the sight of my newly-leased SLK Mercedes that you got for me the last time we re-fied. I hope she is not thinking about leaving Dave for somebody with more investing vision and ambition. Should I give them the number of our Realtor?
“That Dave next door is always whining about his property tax going up and up and up.,…while he just stays in the same little old house all of those years.
(Mary) “He should have moved to CA in 1984, he’d be having Prop 13 backyard barbi-b-q parties today.”
The plane that flew them to Hawaii is now parked in the desert.
…and as you read this there is a work-crew being dispatched to collect the remaining fuel left in the tanks of the jet in five gallon cans.
Illegals and meth heads are dismantling the plane at night and selling it to the scrap yards.
Nation of renters and hoarders
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — If you need any more proof of how sorry a state the housing market is in, look no further than how well real estate investment trusts that own apartments and storage facilities are doing.
Shares of leading apartment REITs Equity Residential , Apartment Investment & Management are near 52-week highs. Ditto for Public Storage , the leading owner of self-storage facilities, and smaller rivals Sovran Self Storage and U-Store-It Trust .
The fact that these somewhat stodgy companies are now Wall Street studs is a clear sign that more people are renting instead of buying. And that trend isn’t likely to end anytime soon.
“Apartment owners have been on a tear for a couple of years, and should continue to do well,” said David Harris, a REIT analyst with Gleacher & Co. in New York. “Some people refer to it as a propensity to rent but in reality, it’s an aversion to buy.”
Harris raises a good point. Even when economic times are good, many younger consumers who are just out of college or grad school are more likely to rent than buy. But following the epic housing collapse of the past few years, renting seems even more attractive.
Renting: The new American dream?
For some, the decision to rent instead of buy is predicated on the belief that housing prices haven’t yet hit bottom. For others, it’s simply harder to save for a down payment and get a mortgage.
According to the most recent figures about housing ownership and vacancies released by the U.S. Census Department Wednesday, rental vacancies fell to 9.7% in the first quarter of this year from 10.6% a year ago.
Meanwhile, the home vacancy rate was unchanged. What’s more, homeownership declined from a year ago. And the homeownership rate for those under the age of 35 is at a 16-year low.
For some, the decision to rent instead of buy is predicated on the belief that housing prices haven’t yet hit bottom. For others, it’s simply harder to save for a down payment and get a mortgage.
And for anyone with any sense, the decision is predicated on knowing that your job could pack up and move at a moment’s notice — with or without you. IMO the only people who should be buying houses are people who KNOW they can stay put. Professors with tenure, federal employees, 20-year retired military, cash retirees, and the like.
The success of the self storage businesses, tells me that many of these renters are not there by choice: they have plans/hopes to move back into bigger digs once they are able to. Otherwise, they’d be getting rid of this stuff, not paying to perpetually store it.
Six months ago my building’s superintendent, who bowls in a league with other high-rise building supers, related to me how his buddies were seeing more than a few people move into condos - sometimes buying and sometimes renting - but not unpacking.
This could be part of the same phonomenon, people dowsizing and storing their crap in an attempt to wait “it” out.
edge,
Our apt looks like our storage units after all this time. We are really tired of it. Boxes piled high, everywhere.If a house to buy doesn’t show up soon, we’re moving out of the area. Very little to box, that’s for sure.
Same here. There is an extra room in our rental we call the “hoarding room”. It has six bookshelves, two extra chairs, our shrink-wrapped washer/dryer, and about 15 boxes containing our book collection. We could actually set it up to be the library (most of) it was meant to be, but we really do want to buy a house at some point.
Every so often DH and I talk about setting up the room, so karma can play its little joke and we’ll end up moving again soonafter.
I actually dust off the boxes every now and then.
I did that for a year, then realized I dont need all that junk. I love selling it on CL. I could live with half of what I have and be happy. Do I really need 12 bar clamps even though I sold the table saw?
OMG I was so sure I was the only person who had one of those rooms. Basement all full of unpacked boxes too. It’s really getting silly.
Watching Storage Wars on A&E proves that most people pay lots of money to store absolute junk.
And the hoarding instinct crosses all socio economic lines. I’ve met doctors and engineers whose houses look like warehouses, to the point where they have to push junk off the couch to clear a place for you to sit (there is no flat surface that isn’t piled with junk), and the rest of their house looks like an obstacle course.
What’s more, homeownership declined from a year ago. And the homeownership rate for those under the age of 35 is at a 16-year low.
To me, this isn’t tragic. Go to school, college if you can/want to, get a job, get an apartment (maybe after a few years at parents’ house in early 20s), get married if you want to (late 20s sounds about right), start a family if you want to (early 30s), save, save, save (not for a few months, not for a year…SAVE!), buy a house.
Bam! You’re 35.
The new American is to just BE ABLE to rent.
Why more people are rejecting their credit cards
Financial experts say people who live a cash-only life usually spend less
~ MSNBC
“It was the hardest thing I had to do,” says Simmons, who had run up $50,000 in credit card debt on any and everything. “I had no idea how much I relied on those darn cards. With those cards, I always had a plan B, now my plan B was gone.”
The worst part of all that plastic usage: “I have nothing to show for it,” she says.
For the last three years, she has been living the cash-only lifestyle, and with the help of CareOne Services, which offers debt counseling and debt management, in two and half years, she has paid off $25,000 of that $50,000 debt. “I realized that if I didn’t do something, I would never be able to turn my debt around,” says Simmons of Cornelius, N.C. “It was time to raise the white flag and get help or I would be paying off debt for the rest of my life.”
Instead, she is starting to finally build up a little bit of a buffer and is saving. A funny thing happened on the way to saying no to credit cards. “I plan big purchases. Nine times out of 10 when I do have the money ready for the purchase, I usually don’t buy it because I realize I don’t need it,” says Simmons. Somehow, she has been able to weather the unexpected, like medical issues with her dogs or car problems.
“I will never go back to credit cards,” she says firmly.
Planning for purchases large and small
Simmons is not alone. “There’s a growing movement of people who are just stopping the use of plastic and not using services that require credit or debit cards,” says David Spader, a financial analyst with savingsaccount.org. “Everything is paid in cash or check, or not at all.”
According to a recent TransUnion study, 8 million Americans gave up using general purpose credit cards in the past year. Is America’s love affair with credit cards starting to fade? For sure, some folks are just sick and tired of drowning in the bills.
Carole and Don Carroll didn’t even remember to carry greenbacks until late in 2006, when they decided to go all-cash, “plain and simple to get out of debt.” And they had plenty of debt — some $88,000 worth.
“Not for anything sexy like new clothes or new cars, but just trying to maintain our middle-class lifestyle when one of us lost a job, or whenever life would throw us a curve,” Carole says. “We just kept up the best we could, but after a while, due to the increases of interest charges and fees due to large balances and then late fees, it became simply a juggling act to pay the minimums, and we were not able to approach the principle outstanding balances,” she says. The Queens, N.Y., couple turned to GreenPath Debt Solutions, and in April of 2010 they finished paying off all their debt.
Going cash-only was an adjustment. “We had to know how much to carry to get through the day, how much we might need for dry cleaning or groceries. The biggest issue was that we needed to go to the bank more. The preplanning aspect of it became less weird over time as we got accustomed to it. There is no downside to cash-only. The best upside is it allows you to keep yourself in check at all times, and hopefully never to fall into the ‘pit’ of owing money you cannot pay.”
Credit cards have effed up more marriages than infidelity.
There’s something about digging deep into one’s wallet and getting the cash in one’s hand and forking it over to someone else that makes a purchase real. With a credit card the purchase becomes somewhat abstract.
The credit card looks just the same after a purchase as it did before, but the wallet feels somehat lighter, and therein lies the difference.
If each dollar in the wallet represents a portion of time and energy that went into earning the dollar then it has a value different than the abstract dollar that can be borrowed on the spot via a credit card.
If a person’s choices of what he can buy and cannot buy are restricted to how many dollars he has on hand then he is going to become somehat picky as to what he is going to spend these dollars on. But if there are no restrictions on how much he can spend - which is what a credit card allows him (up to a point) - then he will become a lot less picky.
The article is not too good at pointing out the in-between option of debit cards. Many people count debit cards as cash, but debit still gives the pleasure of the single swipe. If people miss out on the psychological pain of handing over “cash-money” ie bills and greenbacks, they lose the main advantage of going cash-only. The commenters do address the issue.
Credit Cards used in lieu of cash, that is paid back in full every month is another option. Nothing wrong with a CC. It’s the disipline of the CC holder.
Nothing wrong with a CC
except that you’re paying a middle man, and funding the banks that people here despise so much
But you get airline miles.
But you get airline miles.
yes. But you’re certainly paying a premium to do so. The middleman has to make his cut and all that, even after the “perks”…
There are things you cannot do with cash alone - hotel rooms in foreign countries, rental cars, etc. And I find it very convinient to use the credit card for doctor’s bills when I am going to get reimbursed by my insurance and flexible spending account by the time the credit card is due. Internet purchases are also much more convinient with cards.
That being said, I can’t even imagine getting over $50K in debt on credit cards. Heck, my entire law school education was only $70K and I know how hard it was to pay that off in 3 years. Plus the interest rate on a credit card would be higher than the rate were on my student loans by the time you were that far in debt.
@Polly - I agree, there are things for which a CC is required for the transaction - I have conceded that many times here.
And I get the convenience of CCs…the interest-free loan one gets for 30 days. I’m simply pointing out it comes at a cost that is not itemized on your CC statement.
Even if you pay no interest, the bank is still making money off your transaction. And you are paying more for the transaction. And the bank gets capital to keep doing what many here hate so much - continuing to function, distort markets, and have political influence.
I use CCs at times as well. I don’t claim to be 100% cash. But for those here who bitch and moan about the big banks, and moving to a credit union, yadda yadda, I sure hope they realize that by using CCs they’re funding the beast they hate so much.
For larger CC purchases I ask for a cash discount offer, no discount then it goes on the card and paid off monthly with no carrying charges. A lot of cash deals of late carry no sales taxes.
And you are paying more for the transaction.
Everyone pays more for the transaction. I’ve seen only a few places which give a discount for cash-money.
It’s funny that you bring up the “banks we hate.” At the moment, regulators are aiming to restrict CC transaction fees for retail. (we talked about it on HBB). Instead of % of the transaction, regulators want a flat 12 cents, which will cost banks about 12 billion dollars a year in fees.
Anyway, over the past couple months, there have been numerous banner advertisements the news regs would require consumers to “give 12 billions dollars away” to retailers that we all hate. The implication is that that retailers would raise prices by 12 billion dollars, when all that would happen is that the 12 billion dollars would effectively be transferred from the banks to the retailers. The consumer probably won’t notice a thing.
The ads were paid for by — who else? — the bank lobby.
Everyone pays more for the transaction. I’ve seen only a few places which give a discount for cash-money.
True….that doesn’t make my statement invalid. It’s true that in some cases you can get a cash discount, but the bottom line is that the pervasive use of CCs has pushed prices higher.
We talk here about people who focus on short-term gain rather than long-term. IMO, CC use is one of those things that even the people here seem to focus on the short-term gain — the 30 day float, the convenience, the airline miles — and ignore the long term cost of such things (higher prices, feeding the banks, less anonymity, etc etc).
Perhaps it’s good that regulators are trying to limit fees. Personally I don’t agree - regulation isn’t needed, people just need to recognize the costs. I think that “no cash discounts” clauses of merchant agreements should be stricken, and as such customers could see the actual cost of their “airline miles”. The gas stations took this approach at some point - pointing out the fees with CCs and the effect it was having. It’s a shame more merchants don’t try to educate the public.
Then again, they don’t have to - they can just pass the costs along.
It’s a shame more merchants don’t try to educate the public.
Here in Tucson, the Food Conspiracy Co-op does educate the public. Through signs in the store and articles in the newsletter, the message is: Plastic costs the co-op money. Big money. Please write checks or pay cash.
When shopping at the co-op, Yours Truly writes checks or pays cash.
But the debit cards with a Visa logo on them are incredibly unsafe: if someone gets ahold of yours, they can drain your account. The bank will reimburse you, but it can take weeks or months. If your credit card is stolen and used, you are not personally out any money.
The article is not too good at pointing out the in-between option of debit cards. Many people count debit cards as cash, but debit still gives the pleasure of the single swipe.
I never use the debit cards. I don’t give anyone the right to take money directly out of my account that way. I don’t use the “automatic” pay feature that my bank offers as part of bill pay either. I want to check to make sure the bill is correct before I tell the bank it is OK to pay it.
“Financial experts say people who live a cash-only life usually spend less”
experts? i figured that out when i was five.
Are those the same experts who say nobody could have seen the housing bubble collapse coming?
“Everything is paid in cash or check, or not at all.”
“… 8 million Americans gave up using general purpose credit cards in the past year.
“Move-urr-Money” + “No-thanks!-to-banks” = Ozzie & Harriet re-runs on hulu
America-in-the-mirror, a new “look” after the hosing between citizen-splurge & wanker-banker.
I want to go all cash, but honestly, it’s just not feasible.
Shopping on the Internet is really convenient, especially for those of us who work full time and have kids.
Since we live in the city, we don’t use big box stores like Walmart or Target (one-stop shopping), and other than grocery shopping, I have no interest in spending hours upon hours going from one store to another to find everything I need. We don’t do malls, either.
Also, many things can be found way cheaper online, with free shipping and no tax. UPS guy knows to just throw the boxes over the fence when we are not home.
Our organic veggie box (local farm) gets delivered to our door step every week. Credit card.
Zappos for shoes is cheaper and easier than schlepping around downtown.
Phone, cable, Internet: no way am I going to spend time standing in line at Comcast to pay with cash.
Automatic debit for gas & electric bills, water bills, etc. I only use checks to pay for the kid’s music lessons.
Paying all cash would mean spending way more time as a shopper: going places and browsing and trying on.
“Everything is paid in cash or check, or not at all.”
Our costco Amex card (which we pay off every month) gives a cash back reward. This year we got over $500 back. They pay me to use their credit card - I can deal with that. The trick is never paying a lick of interest.
My AMEX SPG card gets me free hotel rooms. No fees, no nothing since I pay it off each month. Lots of great perks for card holders if you have good credit and stay organized. I never carry cash. I got 10k pts for getting the card, that was enough for 3 nights at Sheraton Hotels. A game that many of us in the know play.
Just bought a bike off Craigslist with cash. No tax, no fees, no gas, less fat.
“Going cash-only was an adjustment.”
How do these peeps book an airline reservation, hotel room, or a rental car?
Commentary on FED conference: http://www.nysun.com/editorials/the-dog-that-didnt-bark/87324/
My commentary: Housing prices are falling sharply but they are falling as priced in gold. A couple years ago I began to suspect that nominal housing prices would not fall much more. A little over a year ago. I dipped by toe in the water on housing by buying a small energy efficient house just prior to the last rush to claim the credit. I bought more for the mortage and financed as much as possible for as long as possible at a fixed rate due to my belief that the FED would inflate it away. So far housing prices have been very stable in my area and I am a head, not even including normal housing deductions, due to the $8000 credit. This is the great irony with my intellectual dispute with some on this board. Obama’s policies are all that stands between a sharp decline in the nominal price of housing. I gain both on my investments and my house (not an investment) while some of my critics are renters and are clearly being hurt by his bankster friendly policies. Even his energy policies keep houses up by driving up their cost of production. I won’t have any time to post this afternoon, might be able to post again this morning. Everyone have a good day, I love the debate even with those whom I disagree.
You couldn’t find a buyer for a fraction of what you paid for it.
Keep dreaming the numbers don’t support you and I have twice the space and only a 50% increase in my housing cause and that includes the interest, taxes and insurance and I can deduct most of that so essentially get all the space for free and don’t have to worry about rising rents in an inflationary environment.
Speaking of numbers some on this board have argued that the banksters would not want rapid inflation since it would make their loans worthless. However, think as a shareholder for a minute. When the free market is working banks hate inflation because their cost of funds, which they obtain short term, rise faster than their income from loans which are fixed for longer periods of time. However, when banks can borrow for near 0% and loan out at 5% due to the bankster president Obama, not a problem. The rising nominal costs would also reduce loan writeoffs due to foreclosures. Finally, the banks make higher loans due to the higher prices and make more money per loan. Thus, from a bankster’s view higher nominal prices are great and they would want the government to pursue the war on savers, who suffer due to negative real rates. Since banksters usually get what they want from the government……
The world is full of suckers and you’re one of them. It’s your funeral bud. There is a site called trulia and they’ll tell you exactly what you want to hear.
With the precious metals I have I will be able to afford an expensive casket. Watching the metals today, go Obama inflate away the mortgage!!!
Sounds like you have money to play with. I do not.
Anyone borrowing has nothing “play” with. Not even marbles.
There is nothing wrong with a house you can afford.
One that you have a sane mortgage.
One that you can enjoy. One that can take of.
And…
If you are lucky.
Long term.
You may earn about 1% over inflation on the value of your house.
I agree. BTW, the latest storage figures are out and natural gas is starting to look very interesting:
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
Not in the investment advice biz but I think the next market move will be in NG. I invest in stocks both for energy and precious metals, not the pure play. It allows me to write calls on the stocks etc for income and protection and capture dividends. But NG is cheap both based on a BTU and historical basis and now the glut is gone.
A $7/hr migrant field worker could “afford” an $800k house in no way means he didn’t over pay. He over paid substantially so.
Now stop the realtor talk.
I invest in stocks both for energy and precious metals, not the pure play. It allows me to write calls on the stocks etc for income and protection and capture dividends.
Name a few stocks. By the charts on your link, it looks like things are moving from glut to average.
A $7/hr migrant field worker could “afford” an $800k house
???????
A $7/hr ($14,000/year) migrant field worker could “afford” about a $35,000 house.
Or a whole block in Detroit…
Yet you presume to know the ins and outs of anonymous Dan’s information to suggest that he can “afford’ it?
If you’re borrowing, you can’t afford it. That’s the idea of borrowing. Get it????
I could pay cash for my 06 car, but I decided to get a 3yr, $5k loan at 4.7%. $149 a mo is painless. Save my $5k for something else.
So you’d rather pay more? An additional $400 on that rapidly depreciating car?
People Are Smart
Zbanana what makes NG compelling is the fact the NG is trading far below what it should based on either a BTU basis and on a historical basis. At a minimum it should be about three times what it is trading for right now. As far as which individual stocks, I need to do more research to be current. About six months ago, I sold NFX and bought more COP when I saw the glut of NG holding on. Now that it is ending the historical relationships will probably reassert themselves. NFX is a very balanced stock between NG and oil. With Exxon’s major buy of NG it might be a really conservative choice. I suggest you just go to a local library and read Value Line for a pure play if that what you want. I like the bigger plays because it is easier to trade their options with less of a bid and ask spread. Since I like to write calls this is important to me. Just my thoughts not to be taken as investment advice.
P.S. I am going to be real busy the next few days and cannot respond timely to any posts. Best of luck.
“…buying a small energy efficient house just prior to the last rush to claim the credit.”
“…and that includes the interest, taxes and insurance and I can deduct most of that so essentially get all the space for free and don’t have to worry about rising rents in an inflationary environment.”
I bought a modest place too, so I am not anywhere close to being able to deduct any interest expense. Pray tell…how do you pull this off?
I find it hard to believe that $8K is the difference between getting ahead and falling behind.
I don’t disagree that falling prices may be canceled out by monetary inflation. However, without wage inflation, J6P and renters are screwed anyway. I can afford to wait a while to see if your theory bears out.
Small house meets my needs (travel a lot) and it is a relatively cheap market. Actually, if I believed some sites I am actually ahead with price appreciation but I don’t, but I am sure with the $8000, I am ahead:
http://capitolreportnm.blogspot.com/2011/03/february-albuquerque-homes-sales-prices.html
On a $160,000.00 dollar house $8000 gives you 5% downside protection. That is why the $8000 dollar credit was great for flyover country but meant little in the coastal California although still got some people to pay an extra 100,000 for it and the California credit.
As far as the wage inflation, it is and will occur just not at the rate of inflation. I am getting raises and so are my co-workers in this state but they are not keeping up with the real rate of inflation but they do much the reported one.
The best that we can hope for you Dan is that the wind stays at your back, and the herd runs in your direction, for decades to come.
Thank you.
P.S. Blue Skye, I hope that is true for you and everyone on this board. We are not the people that caused the problem. We are just trying to hang on to our country and ensure a level of prosperity for us and the people around us.
As far as the wage inflation, it is and will occur just not at the rate of inflation. I am getting raises and so are my co-workers in this state but they are not keeping up with the real rate of inflation but they do much the reported one.
It depends on where you work. I know people at HP are NOT getting raises unless they are in the top 10-15% of their group (everyone else gets squat). City employees at our burg have had their wages frozen for 2 year now.
In some states minimum wage is indexed to inflation. That will create an upward pressure on higher wages as minimum wage closes the gap.
Income growth figures by state for 2010:
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/spi/sqpi_newsrelease.htm
An interesting development in the inflation vs. deflation debate just broke today:
http://news.goldseek.com/LewRockwell/1304004268.php
One of the disciples of deflation based on a collapse of the credit bubble has just gone over to the inflation camp in a major way.
Why is there even a debate? Anyone not experiencing or who hasn’t just recently experienced severe inflation is either very lucky (or living under a rock) or doesn’t do their own shopping.
“I love the debate even with those whom I disagree.”
LOL! How do you debate someone who agrees with you?
You can agree with someone 80% of the time and disagree with them 20% or vice versa. When I say disagree with, I mean the ones that I disagree with 80% or more. With people that I agree with more than disagree we may debate a detail but I classify us largely as being in agreement. Thus, it comes down to the definition of “agree”. I am glad I made you LOL but you do seem easily amused.
I once saw a poster where Joe Garagiola is arguing with himself.
“I am a head”
What happened to the rest of you??
Foreclosure mediation program produces dismal results statewide
By Kimberly Miller Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 9:48 a.m. Wednesday, April 27, 2011
The first statewide report on the Supreme Court’s foreclosure mediation program is out, and at least one South Florida judge says the program is neither helping homeowners nor clearing caseloads .
About 4 percent of 57,909 foreclosure cases referred to mediation between March and November 2010 ended in agreement between the bank and borrower, according to the program evaluation, which included all 20 circuit courts.
The success rate is higher - 27 percent - if only mediations that actually occurred are considered.
The report, released Monday, was compiled by the Office of the State Courts Administrator.
Mediation was required by a 2009 state Supreme Court order as a way to lighten judicial caseloads, as well as aid borrowers - objectives Miami-Dade Circuit Judge Jennifer Bailey said have not been achieved.
“I think it’s fair to say the program has not met the case management goals we hoped to meet in terms of reducing the number of cases to be handled by the court, and, more importantly, it has not significantly helped Floridians stay in their houses,” said Bailey, who served as chairwoman of Florida’s Task Force on Residential Mortgage Foreclosure Cases. “It is incredibly disheartening.”
Florida requires that every foreclosure go through the courts, which had a backlog of 322,724 cases as of February.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/foreclosures/foreclosure-mediation-program-produces-dismal-results-statewide-1436732.html - -
Little bit of excitement around here last night. About 10:00pm one of the neighbors stepped outside for some air and caught an “undocumented” personage wearing nothing but a pair of baggy shorts trying to break into the home of an elderly lady nearby. All these places have little walled patios, the neighbor caught the Son of Aztlan coming over the wall and confronted him. Good thing the bugger didn’t have a gun. He took off like a bat outta hell, on bare feet, apparently, dunno if the police caught him. The lady never heard a thing, the police scared her more than anything else.
So it’s starting. Unfortunately our quiet little retirement community is not far from an agricultural community teeming with “guest” workers and other assorted sons and daughters of Aztlan. In fact, only a major north/south route separates the two areas.
Apocalypto is well underway.
He’s just doing the break ins that Americans won’t do.
You’re not kidding. The crazy thing is that it was so brazen. 10pm is not exactly the dead of night. And the little villas are so close together, you’d think that would put him off.
My theory is that he was one of the laborers who worked for the company that did all the painting of the residences last year. These laborers were clearly not US citizens, they had no English at all and their contractor left them to sleep on the walkways of a motel nearby. Sure, it was a year ago, but this guy clearly knew the lady lived alone, on an end unit. He also had a rope. Whether he was using that to scale the wall, or if he was going to use it to tie her up, who knows.
Many construction workers by day are gang members by night. Even New Orleans had a mini-crime wave by illegal immigrants during the rebuilding. Sorry about your lost of security, hard to put a price tag on that but it is worth more than the things that are stolen.
I’m not worried about my loss of security, I’m moving anyway. And I know what to do. I feel sorry for some of the older folks here who don’t have defenses other than a little panic button around their necks they can push. Their security is gone. Older women on their own are apparently targets. Was just over there looking at the scuff marks on the side of the wall where the turd was scaling it.
Since this has happened, I’ve learned a LOT I didn’t know about this community. It apparently has Section 8 rental in certain areas, which shocked the bejabers out of me. And even though it is over 55, apparently we have some families with small children living here, which explains the parade of women with baby strollers on the sidewalks of a roadway close to one of the developments. I couldn’t figure that out and someone explained it to me this morning.
The moral to the story? Renting is good. It buys you time to find out things about the area you’re living in.
The only time I’ve felt insecure in my home is after my old Rottweiler died and when the new Rottie was still a pup.
Best dogs ever - great with kids and super loyal and sweet - but a Rottweiler knows when someone has ill-intent, they are intuitive like that. If she doesn’t want someone coming in the house, they’re not coming in, unless I ok it.
I’m not worried about my loss of security, I’m moving anyway. And I know what to do.
Don’t old people go to sleep early?
Yes, but neighbors stay up later. And could probably hear a screaming lady.
Who robs a house wearing only baggy shorts? How was he planning to carry stuff out? Are you sure it was just aan attempted robbery?
Not all old people go to sleep early, some suffer from insomnia. The older residences here are pretty solidly built, plus everyone has their AC on here in this part of Florida right now, so screams might not be heard, that’s something that’s often brought up at public safety meetings.
I dunno who robs a house wearing only baggy shorts. And no shoes, even. Makes no sense to me. Supposedly the guy had a rope on him, so nobody knows what the real intention was. And no one knows his state of mind, he could have been all geezed up on drugs or alcohol and wandering the area. Could have been a random act. Musta had dirty feet, though, you can see the tracks on the outer side of the wall. A lot of these guys don’t react well to fire-water and do some strange things when inebriated.
Whatever the circumstances, it really reinforces the wisdom of renting when you’re moving to an area you think you might like to purchase a home in. Rent for a year or two, see how you like, get a feel for the neighbors, environmental issues, etc. I’ve been doing a lot of reading lately on the Western North Carolina City Data forums. If you can cut through all the BS, there’s a lot of valuable information there. Areas to avoid, issues to be aware of, school systems, retirement, jobs, weather, etc. Fascinating.
Personally I hate moving and am about to do it again, but it beats the heck out of being stuck in a bad situation.
B-b-b-but that’s racist. Any and all Sons of Aztlan are cute and cuddly like Pedro from Napolean Dynamite.
Even though they look more like Pedro’s skinhead, lowrider cousins.
This guy didn’t have a skinhead, he had one of those boot-scraper ‘dos.
Enjoy the blog. Need your advice. I rent month to month (having been here a year with no plans to move but don’t think I’ll be here at most another year but not sure) in a nicely run apartment. It was part a small portfolio owned by a family and recently taken over by a large regional landlord. They seem to run a nice operation as well. I damaged the carpet. It will have to be replaced. It was not new when I moved in but good condition. The damage in prominant place on a light color berber style carpet. A patch would not work. I am afraid to tell the landlord. What if they say it’s a gazzillon dollars? Home Depot (who people tell me are high gave me a price that I can easily live with. The price is for replacing the whole apartment if the carpet cannot be matched. The front hall and living room sort of flow into one another.) But landlord probably has their own people. Should I wait until I already have a new lease when I eventually move? Then landlord will have less leverage? I am just afraid they could give an inflated price, say they need to paint as well since installing carpet can mark up the woodwork. (Home Depot say not need to paint. Don’t carpet installer have boards or something to protect woodwork while they install?)Maybe current landlord does not have paint left over from last landlord, etc… I just see this possibly escalating into a costly thing. I am a dream tenant, pay on time, no smoking, no pets, travel for work, etc..
This in a fairly tenant friend state - Mass. Any adive on how to proceed?
PS. What if they insist the bedroom carpet has to be replaced to match the rest of the apartment as it does now? Home Depot price was for whole apartment. My idea about waiting for a new lease is that a potential landlord could be put off if they think I am a problem tenant if I have on going dispute with current landlord. I would like to know the cost now and pay it. But it waiting is a better strategy would wait.
Thanks all for your advice. There was no security deposit. Yes I can live the damage until I move. Dropped the iron. Carpet is burned down to the fiber. I have no objection to replacing carpet in entire apartment as itg is all matched now and looks good that way.
Can you live with it until you move out? Would the landlord replace the carpet and take it out of your security deposit? Check your lease agreement to make sure.
So I’ll offer my opinion as an ex-landlord. In this situation, what would have made me most happy is if you approached me with a solution in hand. Show me the home depot estimate, and offer to pay to have the carpet replaced. Have a sample of the carpet you propose, in hand. Assure me that paying for this carpet will in no way inhibit your ability to pay the rent. I get new carpet in my unit. I don’t even have to deal with the hassle of having it replaced. When you move out, I have newer/better carpet in my unit. If you’ve been a good tenant, you might even get a little credit for that when you move out (credit towards other damage on your security deposit)
If the baseboards are damaged, I’ll take it out of your security deposit… I don’t care when/how/why they were damaged, but might be more inclined to look at them more closely knowing that the carpet was replaced (so touch them up if they get dinged).
Do this, and I’ll know you are a attentive, honest tenant. You’ll get credit for that (unless the carpet was damaged because you started a camp-fire or failed meth lab in the living room or something; I’ll want to know how/why it was damged, and be confident it’s not an indication that you are likely to trash other items in the place).
Not all landlords look at things the same way I did though… that’s just my $0.03 worth.
A couple more points:
Make sure you stress that the carpet replacement will be done professionally (Home Dope installers, not you and your cousin Bob).
Make sure that you do whatever is necessary to minimize impact on the other tenants (don’t pile all your funiture in the hallway, don’t install at midnight, etc.)
Stress that you plan/hope to be in the unit (paying my rent) for a long time, and that’s why you’d like to have the carpet replaced (for you to live with). This isn’t a strategy to minimize your security deposit hit; I’ll be way more inclined to cooperate with you if you’re goint to be a long term tenant (rent payer).
Renter, my guess is that if you move out and immediately have the carpet replaced with a similar color and quality (before landlord inspection), no one is going to make a fuss. I applaud you for doing the right thing, and you shouldn’t get screwed over because you tried to make things right.
Or replace it now - if you don’t mind a little inconvenience in your life - and enjoy the new carpet until you move out.
Or replace it now - if you don’t mind a little inconvenience in your life - and enjoy the new carpet until you move out.
The risk with that is what if it gets damaged again?
Personally, if it’s not troublesome to you, I’d wait until I was ready to move out so I didn’t risk having to replace/clean it again.
You can still inform the landlord and let them know your intentions. I suppose since you’re month to month it may make sense to do it right away, though.
Hire the super to fix it for you. He will be the one to deal with it any eventually. Cash of course.
Big commercial landlords sometimes replace the carpet between every tennant anyway. And the county could have a rule that replacing the carpet is basic maintenance after X number of years so it can’t come out of your deposit. Get the landlord tennant rules before doing anything.
Every day now I’m hearing or reading how “rents are going up up up” to which I’m always skeptical no different than any other housing related talk. Over on “the other” blog, yesterday I opened up the Rental Vacancy Rate chart going back to WW2.
*The current rental vacancy rate in the past 18 months? All time HIGH* . Go see for yourself.
Inventory is inventory irrespective of how it is paid for. And we have massive inventory coast coast.
Apartment vacancies are low in my burg, to the point where hundreds (400+) of new units are being built. This is in a town of 50,000. And these units are pricey too, will rent for up to $1500.
I don’t doubt there is localized demand as you state, that demand will be met through building which is precisely my point. More inventory.
It’s a capacity issue. Those apartment managers are probably cheering on the shadow inventory.
No, rents are not going up, not in 80113 south metro Denver. I love love love my apartment there. Security building, heat included, off-street parking, top floor and no shared neighbor walls. Why would I want to pay $148K for this:
http://denver.craigslist.org/reb/2351094245.html
Shadow inventory is not for sale or for rent.
Home prices drop 3 percent in region
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
BY KATHLEEN LYNN
The Record
STAFF WRITER
Home prices dropped 3.1 percent from February 2010 to February 2011 in the New York metropolitan area, which includes North Jersey, the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index reported Tuesday.
* What they’re saying:
“Prices in the New York metropolitan region are nearing 2003 levels, with no sign of stabilizing. It appears that last year’s tax credits provided a temporary – very temporary – respite from a downtrend that still has some distance to go.”
— Patrick O’Keefe, economist, J.H. Cohn, Roseland
http://www.northjersey.com/realestate/120758524_Home_prices_and_sales_still_shaky_in_area.html - 132k -
I think this Economist commentary is more current and have no reason to doubt the numbers cited in it: http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/04/housing_markets
McCain: “Arm Libyan rebels, like we did with the Afghans in the 80s.” He added, “Because that worked out awesome for us, except for the whole 9/11 thing”
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/04/27/senator-mccain-arm-libyan-rebels-like-afghanistan-in-1980s/
George Soros supported both Obama and McCain over the years. George Soros supports the war against Libya. Draw your own conclusions.
Maybe we should arm George Soros and chopper him into the hottest LZ that can be found.
Your proposal has my full support. However, I would like him to be lightly armed.
“Draw your own conclusions”
I conclude you’ve been listening to am talk radio and watching Fox News? Genearally the right-wing media is the only entity that paints Soros as a consprirator boogeyman.
I read and listen to a broad spectrum of sources. But yes I will listen to Fox or even Gore’s channel. I have learned to discern the difference between fact and opinion. Facts are stubborn things and it does not matter which source you learn them from. Soros is a billionaire trader active in politics promoting the change he wants and has been known to crash currencies so I don’t think pointing out that they are doing what he would want them to do reaches the point of black helicopters. Whether they are the Koch brothers or Soros, because of their power we should keep an eye on them. That is all I am saying.
A ha, makes more sense now. If you see a Koch brothers reference, it’s definitely a lib who reads Daily K*AHEM*.
What does Soros want with Libya?
Sorry, that sounds sarcastic, but I didn’t mean it to come out that way.
“I read and listen to a broad spectrum of sources.”
There is nothing “general” about that. Soros is exclusively a CONservative media outlet hobgoblin.
We’ll believe you when you toss hobgoblins that cross all ideologies.
Yeah, because that’s what the continent of Africa needs, more armaments.
Its just good bidness
McCain: “Arm Libyan rebels, like we did with the Afghans in the 80s.”
Great, lets make sure we’re still involved in Libya 25 years from now, just like Afghanistan.
Afghanistan - proof that oil isn’t the only reason for a long war.
OTOH, Afghanistan is very rich in minerals. Of the sort that are in high demand by other, more industrialized countries.
Lithium
Afghanistan - proof that
oil isn’t the only reason for a long war.China’s Material$ Acquisition Team is paying dear dear premium$ price$ for OPEC oil but not $o much for poppy by-product$.Ben posted this earlier this week, but I didn’t have time to address it:
Rock County home sales slump continues
http://gazettextra.com/news/2011/apr/20/rock-county-home-sales-slump-continues/
Morse said industry predictions are for a sales rebound in 18 to 21 months.
He said he’s seeing pockets in the community where inventory is needed.
“I’ve got a buyer who wants a three-bedroom ranch on the east side of Janesville,” Morse said. “There are seven available, and he looked at all of them.
There is not going to be a rebound in 18-21 months in Janesville - they’ve lost GM and the allied industries. The local school board has finally accepted they will have to eliminate positions. With gas prices going north of $4/gallon it doesn’t make economic sense to live in Janesville and commute to Madison. Madison real estate is also showing some stress as I’m starting to see houses slowly come down in price.
This agent mentions there are only seven three-bedroom ranches on the east side of Janseville. BS- knowing the area, this indicates to me the buyer is only interested in a very small area on the NE side of Janesville, where most of the newer construction is, and not in the Janesville school district.
“He said he’s seeing pockets in the community where inventory is needed.
“I’ve got a buyer who wants a three-bedroom ranch on the east side of Janesville,” Morse said. “There are seven available, and he looked at all of them.”
So… maybe its not so much inventory that is needed as much as price reductions. Because at the right price that buyer would make a purchase.
Yes, I’ll concede this point.
Having seen at least one place that’s been on the market well over 18 months, and is now selling fsbo, there is at least one seller who has not yet gotten that message.
Ironically, it was when looking at that house the agent at that time said “homes in the area just aren’t selling at market value.”
You should have seen the look on the agent’s face when I said “if the homes are selling, there’s your market value.”
Whoops…instead of “selling fsbo” that should be “listed fsbo.”
Looks like the recovery is well underway!
Sacramento area ranks worst in job losses
“For Sacramento to recover, “the housing and real estate markets have got to turn around. It’s the only sector capable of generating the boost that’s needed,” Michael said.”
http://tinyurl.com/64evft7
Sacramento area ranks worst in job losses
—————
Also in NBA team losses (supposedly). For this year at least.
The storm clouds roll in over San Luis Obispo
Foreclosure activity increases 7.6 percent in SLO County
“It’s the highest quarterly total recorded since 2005, when RealtyTrac began tracking the area. The county had its highest yearly total in 2010, with 5,007 foreclosure filings, up from 4,900 in 2009.”
http://tinyurl.com/3zw95ng
Wow, highs in the mid 60’s this weekend. Hasn’t been that warm since the first week of last October, IIRC. Gotta love eastern WA.
we got our one 65 degree day last saturday (it was sunny, too - not a cloud in the sky). Then it got cold and rainy again.
I have a feeling my garden isn’t going to do any better this year than it did last year. Sigh…
We’re currently having our rainiest April ever, it rained probably 25 of the last 30 days.
I don’t see how you guys in the PNW can stand it.
“I don’t see how you guys in the PNW can stand it.”
You’re right, I can’t stand it, but it’s affordable.
Rainy spring here in DC. I just hope it stops soon before the local strawberry crops are ruined. But at least we haven’t had any late frosts, so the fruit tree blossoms are fine, and saturated groud is excellent for fruit trees. This will give them enough water for half the summer.
Interesting article and graphs about housing prices in Australia don’t know if it has been posted before but it is quite informative:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/article/melbourne-property-prices-bubble-pd20110414-fw4zr?opendocument&src=msp
Australia has a population of 22 million. The country is roughly the same size as the US.
Buy now before they run out of land!
It is amazing and it is not like that even coastal land is in short supply.
Australia seems to have the most nature documentaries of any other country. This is generally NOT a good thing. For every show on cutie koala bears, there are five shows on unsavoury bugs and reptiles.
Lots of creepie crawlies in Oz.
It’s home to the funnel-web spider, which has the most toxic venom of any spider. They are also known to aggressively attack humans. Look up a photo, the size of the fangs is frightful.
In answer to RE are liars (Trulia):
I was recently previewing house pic’s on a site when this was the second pic:FHA 1st Time Homebuyers
3.875% / APR 4.0158%*
1% Down Payment
Saving for the down payment and/or closing costs can be one of the biggest hurdles facing 1st time homebuyers. This program combines an FHA 30-year fixed rate loan for 96.5% with a 3% homebuyers assistance silent 2nd loan with no scheduled monthly payments. When the FHA 1st is combined with the homebuyer’s assistance 2nd the rate of interest is 3.875%.
The First-time homebuyer restriction can be waived if the borrower is a Qualified Veteran or the primary residence will be in a designated target area.
No Prepayment Penalties
Credit Score of 620 or above
Bankruptcy OK, if at least 2 years old
Foreclosure OK, if at least 3 years old
APPLY NOW
Now we know how they are moving the low end property here in Salinas, CA.
“Bankruptcy OK, if at least 2 years old, Foreclosure OK, if at least 3 years old”
So much for “you’ll be scarred for 10 years (or whatever the conventional wisdom is) by a BK or a foreclosure.
Exactly. But that is the response from Housing Pimps when the concept of “walking away” is explained.
University of Arizona law professor Brent White made the same point in his white paper about the merits of walking away.
And now that UA troublemaker has expanded his argument into a book called Underwater Home. I’m looking forward to buying it and having him autograph it. (He is on leave this semester.)
I’m seeing condo REO sales in Santa Cruz CA going back to 1999 prices.
Here’s a unit:
Sold in 05 460K
Sold in 11 170K
http://www.trulia.com/homes/California/Santa_Cruz/sold/27666745-41-Grandview-St-806-Santa-Cruz-CA-95060
Looks like median priced condos at 247K there have been almost cut in half from 05-06 levels. Half
I’m seeing condo REO sales in Santa Cruz CA going back to 1999 prices.
Why would anyone move to Santa Cruz to live in a condo? It’s a beautiful place…but a condo?
Bring on the crash already: SFH half-off in San Francisco, now that’s what I’m talking about.
“Why would anyone move to Santa Cruz to live in a condo? ”
Because that’s all they can afford with their $15/hr job?
at $15 an hour they couldn’t even afford a condo… they can’t even rent in Santa Cruz for that pay. time to get a roommate.
So, I got a copy of our mortgage documentation yesterday. I expected an argument about getting a copy and taking them home. But since I didn’t ask, and simply told them that I was going to come by to pick up a copy, when I showed up, surprise, surprise, they had them all in a nice folder for me to take home. So, that was unexpected.
Then, as I began to wade through the docs last night, I was shocked at how much of the paperwork had to do with disclosures (representations on both sides, etc.), and how much was actually the note/deed/agreements with the lender. The note was about 3 pages (and could have been 2 with different spacing). The deed was a Fannie form (despite this being a non-conforming loan).
Has this always been the case?
I’ve read through a lot of loan documents (almost entirely commercial loans), and was shocked at the brevity and lack of teeth of the actual loan documents for this purchase.
If this is the way it’s always been, I’m starting to have less sympathy for the homebuyers who got in trouble. They were given plenty of warning (maybe too much as their eyes glazed over going through the pages and pages of repetitive, and sometimes slightly conflicting, disclosures). I’m not having any more sympathy for the banks, mind you. They should have known better.
It varies from state to state..
But yes, one of the biggest problems was that the banks knew they couldn’t fail, so they threw due diligence out of the window.
Bernanke says further Fed steps to try to ease unemployment would raise risk of high inflation.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that the Fed can’t take additional steps to try to ease high unemployment without escalating inflation.
If inflation were to accelerate, the Fed would have to raise rates to slow borrowing and spending and blunt price increases. Hiring might then slow.
Speaking to reporters, Bernanke became the first chairman in the Fed’s 98-year history to begin holding regular news conferences. The session, the first of three scheduled news conferences this year, is part of Bernanke’s long-standing campaign to make the Fed more transparent and to cast himself as open and accessible.
In fielding questions, he sketched a picture of an economy growing steadily but still weighed down by a prolonged period of unemployment, now at 8.8 percent. He acknowledged the pain that is causing, noting that around 45 percent of the unemployed have been without a job for six months or longer.
“We know the consequences of that can be very distressing because people who are out of work for a long time, their skills tend to atrophy,” Bernanke said.
But he added:
“It’s not clear that we can get substantial improvements in payrolls without some additional inflation risks, and in my view we can’t achieve a sustainable recovery without keeping inflation under control.”
Bernanke appeared relaxed with reporters, projecting a calming presence and saying nothing that might rattle investors.
The Fed chairman offered some clues about when and how the Fed would begin raising interest rates.
For more than two years, the Fed has kept a pledge to hold its key rate at a record low near zero for an “extended period.” At his news conference, Bernanke said that at this point, that phrase means “a couple of meetings.” The Fed, which ended a two-day meeting Wednesday, gathers about every six weeks.
Once the Fed abandons the “extended period” language, it would be viewed as a signal that it was preparing to start boosting interest rates.
Since there’s quite a bit of investor purchasing in the SFR market, here’s a cautionary tale. The following incident happened a few blocks away from the Arizona Slim Ranch:
Tucson police: Shot man found outside burning house was suicide
A quick look at the Pima County Assessor’s Office records shows that the property is a rental. Judging from the condition of the place, I should say that it was a rental. It now looks to be uninhabitable.
I was in a wal-mart yesterday buying motor oil and for the very first time in all my years of going into their stores, the check out person asked me if I had found everything I was looking for at a discount price? I said I did okay. Then came, thank you for shopping at wal-mart and please continue shopping with us in the future.
Wal-Mart: Our shoppers are ‘running out of money’
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Wal-Mart’s core shoppers are running out of money much faster than a year ago due to rising gasoline prices, and the retail giant is worried, CEO Mike Duke said Wednesday.
“We’re seeing core consumers under a lot of pressure,” Duke said at an event in New York. “There’s no doubt that rising fuel prices are having an impact.”
Wal-Mart shoppers, many of whom live paycheck to paycheck, typically shop in bulk at the beginning of the month when their paychecks come in.
Lately, they’re “running out of money” at a faster clip, he said.
“Purchases are really dropping off by the end of the month even more than last year,” Duke said. “This end-of-month [purchases] cycle is growing to be a concern.
Target prices beat Wal-Mart’s
Wal-Mart which averages 140 million shoppers weekly to its stores in the United States, is considered a barometer of the health of the consumer and the economy.
To that end, Duke said he’s not seeing signs of a recovery yet.
“…typically shop in bulk at the beginning of the month when their paychecks come in.”
Ummm, it’s not their “paychecks” that come in at the beginning of the month - unless “paycheck” is now code for food stamps.
Wally World used to make hay (circa 2007-8) about the bump in sales around the 15th each month. Their argument was that the paycheck that came in around the turn of the month was already spoken for so that if their customers had any extra money to spend it was coming from their mid-month paycheck. If that monthly spike in sales has moved from mid-month to the beginning of the month then that suggests their shoppers are really on the ropes - as compared to a few years ago.
I’ve heard of an end-of-the-month happening at Wal-Mart. Around 11 p.m., shoppers come in and start filling their carts. They’re waiting until the midnight hour, when their government benefit payment is automatically deposited into their accounts.
Then, after the clock strikes twelve, up to the checkout counters they go.
In the Centennial State welfare card recharging happens on a staggered basis, between the 1st and 10th of the month, based on the last digit of your SS #.
I heard that those same carts were overflowing with Huggies…
IDK, but what I did see at Smart & Final:
Bulk adult diapers,…on sale!
Not your John Wayne’s America.
the check out person asked me if I had found everything I was looking for at a discount price?
I had a guy at Home Depot actually suggest I haggle on the price on some LED lights at the counter…even gave me his name and radio # if they gave me a hassle. I thought that was really cool.
This was even before we started chatting about the fact the lights were for a gun safe, and the types of guns he owned, and what ranges we shoot at.
I was impressed.
If you were chatting that long, then there probably wasn’t anyone else behind you in line. That’s an indicator in itself.
there probably wasn’t anyone else behind you in line
this wasn’t in line - this was out in the store….he was helping me find the LED lights I was looking for. But the store has not been very busy when I’ve been in there. Granted, I don’t go to the HD very often since I’m no longer a homeowner.
I bet you spend all your weekends at Apartment Depot though. Oh wait, that doesn’t exist.
“We’re seeing core consumers under a lot of pressure,” Duke said at an event in New York.
Not customers. Consumers. I guess the new saying should be “The consumer is always right?” … except they don’t believe that anymore.
OK, Masters of Universe … how are we supposed to “consume” when you conspire to depress our wages? Or do you guys want to have your cake and eat it too?
“The consumer is always right?” … except they don’t believe that anymore.
Not anymore. See article below on new Supreme Court ruling.
Here is South California, the clothes of shopper in Walmart are the worst, close second will be shoppers in Costco. Shopper at target wears much better, close to shopper at large shopping mall/center. I do not mind fashion much, but the differences are just so dramatic that it is hard not to notice it.
The shops follows similar trend, Walmart’s arrangement is not good, make even very same brand products look worse, there is no arrangement in Costco of course, Target do things with slightly more fashion, things look better, that makes it my main place to shop. Price wise, with high gas price considered closer place is the way to go.
The U.S. Commerce Department said today that the economy grew at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the January-March quarter. That was weaker than the 3.1 percent growth rate for the October-December quarter. And it was the worst showing since last spring when the European debt crisis slowed growth to a 1.7 percent pace.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and other economists say the slowdown last quarter is a temporary setback. They generally agree that gas prices will stabilize and the economy will grow at a 3 percent pace in each of the next three quarters.
← Bad weather and high gasoline prices are being blamed, but the ragged “recovery” can mainly be blamed on bad management by the Administration and Congress. They are unwilling to face the consequences of years of budget deficits and reckless spending.
8.2 million Americans are receiving unemployment assistance of one kind or another. 429,000 signed up for unemployment checks last week.
All you have to do to show “growth” is to fudge the inflation numbers.
“Massive crop losses” feared from South drought
KANSAS CITY (Reuters) – The worst drought in more than 40 years intensified across Texas over the last week, with high winds and heat causing “massive crop losses,” with little relief in sight, according to weather experts Thursday.
A report released Thursday from a consortium of national climate experts, dubbed the Drought Monitor, said drought worsened along the Texas border with Oklahoma, and in western, central and southern Texas.
Ranchers were struggling to feed and water cattle, and farmers were left to watch their crops shrivel into the dusty soil. Some experts estimated that producers were giving up on as much as 70 percent of the state’s wheat acreage.
“There are some scary things going on in Texas,” said Brian Fuchs, climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center, which released its weekly drought analysis Thursday morning.
The National Oceanic Atmospheric Association said this week that the drought appeared to be the worst since at least 1967.
Court imposes limits on class actions
By JESSE J. HOLLAND, Associated Press – Wed Apr 27, 3:09 pm ET
WASHINGTON –
The Supreme Court on Wednesday limited the ability of people to combine forces and fight corporations together when they want to dispute contracts for cell phones, cable television and other services, a move consumer advocates called a crushing blow.
In a 5-4 ideological split, the high court’s conservatives said businesses can block their customers from using class actions. The court said the federal arbitration law trumps state laws that invalidate contracts banning class actions.
The decision came in a dispute between AT&T Mobility and a California couple who objected to being charged around $30 in sales tax for what they were told was a free cell phone.
The decision came in a dispute between AT&T Mobility and a California couple who objected to being charged around $30 in sales tax for what they were told was a free cell phone.
Methinks that AT&T will lose in the long run. After all, that couple just gave them a heaping load of bad PR. Much of the same sort that Goodyear got after screwing Lily Ledbetter out of the pay the men were getting for all those years.
Methinks that AT&T will lose in the long run.
They lost Hwy’$ & mo$t of our family member$ cell service after 11 year$.
Still use Tide though, after 46 years of simply doing what is suppose to do.
I wonder at what point will businesses decide that individuals are not needed and get the Supremes to declare us either illegal or the legal property of corporations?
Round about the 19th century.
The Supreme Court on Wednesday limited the ability of people to combine forces and fight corporations together when they want to dispute
heheeeheeeheehaahaaahaaheeehaahaaa… (Hwy50™)
In a 5-4 ideological split, the high court’s conservatives said businesses can block their customers from using class actions
Citizen-taxpayer vs Megaanything Inc. Score:
Corporation Inc. (SCOTUS “person”) = 286
peons-of-peon = 3
Justice is blind! (to the score)
When did we score 3?
1. 13th amendment
2. 14th amendment
3. 21st amendment
So it’s been a while.
class action suit = you get a $5 coupon for a new cell phone and the lawyers split $50 million…
And without the class action, the company that screwed over its customers not only keeps all the money, but continues to violate the rules they agreed to operate under by participating in that business.
So, I’ll take the suit, thank you very much.
Of course you will. So would John Edwards.
you get a $5 coupon for a new cell phone and the lawyers split $50 million…
And the poor, poor suffering Corp. Inc. laughs all way to depo$it their xma$ bonu$ with their Et. al Inc. cousin$ running MegaBankInc. The poor, poor dears…$end ‘em a Hallmark$ Inc. “get well soon” card OK slippybanana
Like most “TrueDeceiver’s™” + “TruePathtoProsperity™”, slipperybanana has prioritized the real danger to America, the “TrueDisciple/Advocates™”,…aka, “themselves”.
heheeeheeeheehaahaaahaaheeehaahaaa… (Hwy50™)
You have problem with Corporate Communist Capitalism©®™, comrade?
Does anyone, ANYONE here still doubt who actually rules this country?
Anyone else seen that Kitco has a mode now where metals price changes are broken down into terms of USDX changes versus actual trading changes? Pretty neat way of looking at things.
The 9 Places Where Inflation is Crushing Us
April 28, 2011 MarketWatch
Commentary: Meat, gas, even diapers are costing regular folks
Inflation is far from under control and it’s time that Americans demand our government officials do something about it.
The Federal Reserve would have you believe that everything is fine, focusing on core inflation rates and ignoring broader measures of inflation as they affect food and energy. These commodity-driven prices, as our central banking overlords would have you believe, are naturally more volatile and shouldn’t be overstated.
You would think after Fed bureaucrat William Dudley was castigated for talking up the affordability of iPads while ignoring real family expenses, our Federal Reserve officials would have woken up to reality. But after the publicity stunt by Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday, it’s clear that the Fed — and perhaps many Americans as a result — is in denial when it comes to the inflationary trends crippling U.S. households.
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/112629/inflation-high-nine-costs-marketwatch;_ylt=AgoJM0O9GPN8MuzjvT.xO1S7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1cmJ1NTM4BHBvcwM5BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawN0aGU5cGxhY2Vzd2g-?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
How the dollar rout could turn ugly April 28, 2011
~Fortune
Memo to Bill Gross: You’ve got the right idea but the wrong trade.
That’s the implication of a note out this week from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. It advises clients that the way to make money on rampant U.S. fiscal stupidity is to bet against the swooning dollar — not on a massive selloff in government bonds, a la Gross’ Pimco Total Return fund.
Not more of this?
Rates strategist David Woo says that even with the dollar index trading at a three-year low and the euro creeping up on $1.50 – a level also last seen in that banner year of 2008 – there are signs that markets are underestimating the risk that the dollar could swing sharply lower in coming months.
He says the theater of the absurd playing out in Washington makes it likelier that investors will dump the dollar as it becomes apparent that progress on a fix to our national spending addiction is not in train.
In our risk scenario, little progress on the fiscal front raises the probability of a fiscal crisis and the odds that the Fed becomes the buyer of the last resort. This would accelerate the process of the USD’s demise as the global reserve currency and cause it to decline in a disorderly manner.
This is not what Woo expects to happen, mind you. He believes Tim Geithner when he says Republicans and Democrats will patch over their many differences long enough to raise the debt ceiling before the government goes splat in July, and perhaps to agree on some sort of plan to impose on Congress at least the spending discipline of drunken sailors.
Accordingly, he forecasts that the dollar will bounce back against the euro, whose users have problems of their own, and rise to $1.30 against the euro by midyear.
But the sound of political gunfire being exchanged daily is not reassuring to markets, which Woo warns will eventually catch on to the full horror of the U.S. budget position.
~ Clipped from The 5Min. Forecast
“Our interpretation of the increase in gas prices is the economist’s basic mantra of supply and demand,” mused chairman Ben Bernanke yesterday during his first-ever regularly scheduled press conference.
At that moment, the price of oil reached a new post-2008 high.
This morning, it’s pulled back a bit, but not much. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate goes for about $113.15 right now.
“The Federal Reserve believes that a strong and stable dollar is both in the American interests and in the interest of the global economy,” he also said.
At that moment, the dollar index reached a new post-2008 low.
This morning, it recovered… barely… and clings to 73 by some very closely clipped fingernails.
Back when Bernanke signaled the advent of a new round of easy money — QE2 — during his annual speech at Jackson Hole, Wyo. last August, oil was $75 and the dollar index was at 83…
We agree it’s, as Bernanke points out, due to supply and demand, but perhaps not in the sense he meant.
“He never admits it’s the inflation of the money supply that’s the problem,” Rep. Ron Paul told MarketWatch yesterday, after putting himself through the mild torture of watching the news conference.
“The [Federal Open Market] Committee expects the effects on inflation of higher commodity prices to be transitory,” spake the chairman.
The Fed can no longer assert “inflation” is a nonissue. So the line now is that it’s a “temporary” one.
But even the Fed now admits that consumer prices will likely rise this year higher than the Fed would like. After wrapping up its two-day meeting yesterday, the Fed’s Open Market Committee forecast a headline CPI between 2.1% and 2.8% during 2011.
That’s higher than their original target zone of 2%.
(Yes, it’s the Fed’s goal for your money to be worth 18% less over a 10-year span. And true, that doesn’t seem to fit in with the Fed’s mandate of “stable prices” or their stated belief in a “strong dollar”… but that’s a story for another day. And not to worry, the Fed informs us, CPI will magically return to a 1.4-2% range in 2012.)
“I do believe that the second round of securities purchases [QE2] was effective,” Bernanke said. “We saw that first in the financial markets. The way monetary policy always works is by easing financial conditions. We saw increases in stock prices.”
And there it is… the wealth effect, writ large. The Fed favors the stock market. Savings and investment in a traditional sense be damned.
“Hear, hear!” cheered stock traders, who brought the Dow and S&P to new post 2008 highs. This morning, both indexes have added to those gains and the Dow is now a hair above 12,700.
In sum, the higher inflation target was the news nugget that made its way out of the back end of Bernanke’s dog and pony show yesterday.
Everything else was status quo: Zero-interest rate policy remains in effect… and the $600 billion in new Treasury purchases at the center of QE2 will proceed as scheduled through the end of June… after which the Fed will continue rolling over existing debt to make this chart go flat, at least for a while…
Where to from here? If the past is prologue, we’re due for something along the lines of when QE1 ended in early spring last year: The S&P fell 13%… and the VIX, the market’s “fear gauge,” zoomed up 48%. Then in August, Ben gave his Jackson Hole speech, and the rest is history.
We figure the Fed will lather, rinse… and repeat: Wait for the stock market to correct, and then launch QE3.
For reference, the S&P is up 28% since, and the VIX is below 15 as we write — as low as it’s been since mid-2007.
The Commerce Department released its first guess at first-quarter GDP. It’s up 1.8% — a mediocre showing compared to the previous quarter’s 3.1%.
Businesses are slowing down their investment in new equipment and supplies. And consumers are spending less on discretionary purchases, mostly because they’re getting squeezed on the stuff they need — food and energy.
Even if you throw out food and energy, this morning’s report reckons prices rose 2.2% in the first quarter — double the previous quarter’s figure.
Even the “core” inflation the Fed relies on for policy decisions is stretching the boundaries of their target zone.
First time “jobless” claims rose again last week to 429,000. That’s the third consecutive figure higher than 400,000. The economy needs something in the low 300s to provide jobs for all those who are claiming they don’t have ’em, to not give up hope.
“Do not accustom yourself to consider debt only as an inconvenience; you will find it a calamity.” ~Samuel Johnson
“Do not accustom yourself to consider “others” debt only as an inconvenience; you will find it a
calamitya “TruePathtoProsperity™” .”Un-named National Central Gov’t Wanker-Bankers Inc. + “friends” Inc. Et. al.
Keep ‘em comin’ wmbz, …keep ‘em comin’
April 28 (Bloomberg) — David Sokol violated Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s insider-trading rules and misled the company about his personal stake in Lubrizol Corp., which he recommended as a takeover target to Chairman Warren Buffett, the firm said. An 18-page report released yesterday by Berkshire’s audit committee portrayed Buffett as a victim of deception and said the company should weigh suing Sokol, 54, to recover his trading profits.
Warren has a high tolerance for financial
foolishness“indiscretion”.Exhibit A: Blue Chip Stamps Inc.
Should I buy a 3/3, 1900 sq ft home in Temecula, CA? Avocados grow there. It is currently about 60% off the peak and about $100 per sq ft on 5000 sq ft lots with good schools. Sure beats Texas! 1 hr from warm, summer surf and has a Trader Joes. $200k gets you a nice place.
Do you have a job oppoortunity there? Are you comfortable with the CA 2011 purchase property taxes? Can you get used to smug Prius owners smirking at you? Do you mind mostly AngloMixed-American seniors supporting Native America Indian casino’s with their $ocial $ecurity money? You’d be due East of a Nuclear Tsunami Disaster in Oceanside. Have you gotten a quote for earth
quakeshake insurance?We can discuss these things at my lil’ brothers rental nearby in Hemet, CA. 2nd thought, we’ll visit you, go to the Wilson Creek winery for some delicious almond champagne talk about how avocado’s are really cheap medicine.
Most of that has no effect on me. What other people do is none of my business for the most part. Taxes are bad as it is Riverside county, right? PITI with 30% down is a couple hundred less than what they rent for. There are certainly better places to live, but for the money and the weather and location, not bad–eh?
I could afford it working for $12 an hr.
I could afford it working for $12 an hr.
That’s exactly what x6 non-legal citizen’s + “other” family is counting as well.
We all have to live somewhere.
Since I speak Spanish pretty good, I can hire painters for $15 and hr instead of a contractor at $30 who drops off the $15 an hr workers.
Since I speak Spanish pretty good, I can hire painters for $15
The more you speak, the more you reveal…
Why is only the site nut job responding to me?
Justice Clarice Thomas isn’t responding to my email’s, …I’m bored.
“Why is only the site nut job responding to me?”
Everyone else is home watching House Hunters?
Post this tomorrow morning and you’ll get a lot of discussion.
No snow, no tornadoes, no humidity…
any better ideas?
Hey, snap-out-of-it! Quit
postingwrestling withCONvincing yourself.I know nothing about Temecula CA. But if I found a 3/3 1900 sq ft single family CBS house on a nice lot in good shape and in a good neighborhood in Northern Palm Beach County at $100 per sq ft. I would buy it, even knowing that I could probably get a better price if I waited. If you took any of the above qualifiers out (which is the case with everything I have seen) I would not buy it.
Good Luck.
Nice Bits
Holy frick the wheels are coming off my school district. Luckily I am flexible because I am probably going to end up in a different role at a different location (my wife is fine, too), but man, heads are going to roll for real.
What recovery?
“What recovery?”
The headless kind. It’s a headless recovery.
Today’s “feel good” link:
Google News “insider trading”
A lot of convictions this week.
Guy next to me at work is leaving SF to go to business school at UVA in September and is buying a rental property in SF to be an absentee LL.
There are so many knives around here, I’m trying to avoid catching one myself.
MrBubble
MrBubble
IDK yous in N. CA, really?
Filed under : “Profee$ional” & “Ethical”
Feds shut down O.C. precious metals trader:
April 28th, 2011, by Ronald Campbell / OC Register
They claimed customers could make big profits — but didn’t say that 98 percent of their customers lost most of their money.
Nearly half of the company’s customers funded their investments from Individual Retirement Accounts.
On its website, 20/20 Metals portrayed its staff — all newcomers to the precious metals world — as “seasoned professionals” with “years of experience in the field.” The website also said precious metals are “as solid as you’re going to get in terms of investment. This is not the high-yield-yet-high-risk stock market.”
Someone recently posted “Party does not matter”:
Ho ho, hah hah, hehehehehehe, BwaHaHaAhHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! (Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower™)
Bill to dissolve Vernon overwhelmingly approved by state Assembly:
The state Assembly on Thursday overwhelmingly approved a bill that would dissolve the city of Vernon.
The bill, which is the first known attempt by legislature to disincorporate a charter city, was passed on a vote of 60 to 7.
The legislation was authored by Assembly Speaker John Perez (D-Los Angeles), who described a “pattern of unprecedented corruption” in Vernon, a city of fewer than 100 residents. He vowed that his bill would create a more open government in the 5.2-square-mile industrial enclave and protect the 1,800 businesses located there.
“Members, we have an absolute obligation to make sure that we have transparent and accountable government at every level in the state of California,” he said.
Thursday’s debate also marked the first opposition to the bill from other legislators. Those urging a “no” vote included Tim Donnelly (R-Twin Peaks), Curt Hagman (R-Chino Hills) and Shannon Grove (R-Bakersfield). The three said they feared Perez’s bill would cause a loss in jobs.
But Perez also called the jobs argument a “scare-tactic” being used by the city and its team of lawyers and lobbyists in its attempts to derail the bill.
Hey, maybe Cameron Smyth is originally from Maine?:
“We have the opportunity to make a statement to the people of California that corruption will not be tolerated,” said Cameron Smyth (R-Santa Clarita), the bill’s principal co-author.