Bits Bucket for May 3, 2011
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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It’s like nothing ever happened.
I’m hearing these radio ads in Los Angeles for mortgages that are “fixed for seven years” because “statistics show that homeowners move or refinance, on average, every seven years.”
Well, of course they are going to refinance every 7 years if they all have mortgages that are “fixed for 7 years”. DUH! Why would anyone not get a fixed-for-life mortgage when rates are historically low?
Because the PTB do not want you to have a fixed mortgage when they have to raise interest rates. They might lose instead of the middle class, we can’t have that.
Treasury extends debt ceiling window to Aug. 2
May 3, 2011
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — The fallout from lawmakers’ delay on the debt ceiling is getting real.
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said Monday that he would start taking “extraordinary measures” this week to keep the country’s debt below its legal limit.
In a letter to Congress, he also said that he now estimates he can keep the country out of default until Aug. 2, three weeks later than he estimated last month.
The reason for the extension: The government has taken in more tax revenue than expected — easing the country’s borrowing needs.
He said, however, the pace of U.S. borrowing is still on track to hit the current $14.294 trillion debt ceiling by May 16.
Debt ceiling: What you need to know
But Geithner said he would need to take action starting this Friday because Congress is unlikely to act by May 16 and the debt is already so close to the cap — just $58 billion below as of the end of last week.
The Treasury Department will suspend issuance of special Treasury securities that help state and local governments fund, among other things, infrastructure improvements, Geithner said.
That will be the first of several steps Geithner will have to take the longer Congress delays action on the debt ceiling.
Republicans and some Democrats say they will not support an increase to the debt ceiling unless it is accompanied by spending cuts and enforceable budget measures designed to keep spending or deficits down. And agreements on those types of measures will take some time.
Some lawmakers mistakenly believe that not raising the debt ceiling would somehow tamp down future spending.
Does this mean the merry band of Tea Partiers just lost their power to destroy the U.S. government’s credit rating if their Planned Parenthood funding demands aren’t met?
perhaps its the unsustainable spending and debt that has destroyed the U.S. government’s credit rating?
spending $1.41 for every $1 received, scaled to $trillions is lunacy.
The big elephant in the room (aka “third rail of politics”) that no politician wants to discuss is Social Security and other “entitlements”; is that in your “spending $1.41 for every $1 received” figure?
I think that if you take SS and Medicare out of the picture, along with the dedicated payroll tax which funds them, then we are spending something more along the lines of $2 for for every tax dollar collected.
I believe that the thin end of the SS wedge is there. But SS will be cut one way or another; by inflation if not by actual reduced pay-outs.
To answer your question PB, no. Because Social Security revenue and expenditures for now are roughly equal. However, as the baby boomers retire that will change. Thus, the spending of $1.41 for every dollar of revenue is not taking account that we need to finance the future costs of social security.
Charlie Tango that SS contributions exceed SS payouts, but Dan tells us that contributions and payouts are roughly equal. Is either of them correct?
I do know that Congress has been spending SS funds on other stuff besides SS for a long time.
As this chart shows the social security deficit for this year and the next few years in $30 to $40 billion thus it is such a minor part of a $1.6 billion dollar deficit it just does not impact the $1.41 figure in a meaningful way. Given the size of the program the revenue and the expenditures are nearly equal. This changes in the out years:
http://factcheck.org/2011/02/democrats-deny-social-securitys-red-ink/
I sent a link which shows that there is a modest deficit in the funding which I believe means they are roughly equal. Waiting for Ben to approve its posting.
and let’s not forget…
Removing the Social Security earnings cap virtually eliminates funding gap
Economic Policy Institute
http://www.epi.org/economic_snapshots/entry/webfeatures_snapshots_20050217/
Some of the confusion may be due to interest on the trust fund. To those who are interested in looking at total government taxing and expenditure, the interest on the trust fund nets to zero since it is paid for out of a combination of treasury receipts and treasury borrowing. On the other hand, if you are looking at the SS as a separate program with a dedicated revenue stream, those interest payments from the treasury ARE a dedicated revenue stream.
As more people take SS at 62, the funding gap decreases ad well.
Precisely, Steve J.
Republican lawmakers are talking about raising the retirement age over the next 50 years, which will do nothing to solve the SS problem caused by boomer retirements.
It might be better to offer boomers in their 50s, some of whom are 99ers, the option of taking even earlier retirements at even more reduced rates.
Our debt rating by another agency:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42871647
Not raising the debt limit has nothing to do with the country’s credit rating. Government has plenty of money to pay interest on the outstanding debt and can issue new debt to pay off maturing debt. The only thing the government can’t do if congress doesn’t raise the debt limit is spend more than it collects. It is lunacy to believe that the country will default if it can’t borrow more. Merely scare tactics from a government that doesn’t want to quit raiding your children’s and grandchildren’s future to spend today.
Our children and grandchildren would have nothing to worry about if the rich would pay their fair share of taxes.
Or if US corporations were forced through monetary policies to actually employ US labor.
Or better yet, a combination of the two.
And better yet, a combination of the two along with giant corporations paying taxes at the percentage levels of 30 years ago.
Que someone willfully ignorant to the difference between nominal and effective tax rates:
“But USA, USA, USA got’s der highest corporupate tax rates in da world”
The US currently has a spending problem, not a taxing problem. There is not enough income from the rich to tax and balance the budget. According to IRS data for 2008, the last year this data is available, the top 1% of income earners earned $1.645 trillion in income. The govt would have to tax them at 100% to close fiscal 2011’s $1.6 trillion deficit. Another interesting factoid from the data, the top 1%, those with income above $380k, earned about 20% of all income (1.6 trillion of 8.5 trillion), but paid about 40% of all income taxes ( .392 trillion of 1.031 trillion). Not sure what “their fair share” should be, but the top 1% already pay double the share of income taxes relative to their share of income.
Ending tax breaks for oil companies would be a start.
monetary policiestrade policiesWho cares what the top income earners made in income, steamed beaner? The mega-rich make their money in capital gains- taxed at less than half the rate of income.
Income is for little people, as anyone who has studied the issue would know, unless they’re just seeking to confuse.
Let’s play this scenario out. If we assume that we have a spending problem, then we have to make drastic cuts to programs. The big expenses are defense, SS, Medicare, and Medicaid. Republicans will not touch defense.
Elimination of Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid would crash the economy as the medical bubble would pop big time.
Americans would no longer spend $7K per year on medical care because nobody (except the very rich and the employed) could afford it. The employed are generally healthier and younger and richer than those with Medicare and Medicaid, so they would tend to spend less on medical care.
Nurses and doctors will join the ranks of the unemployed. They will probably land on their feet in some other country whose cost of living is lower to match their new lower incomes. The doctors especially will go elsewhere due to their student loan debt. Medical office workers will not have that option.
Some medical suppliers and drug companies will go out of business. The ripple effects through the economy will engender a dramatic rise in unemployment in all industries, much like the bursting of the housing bubble was not limited to builders and realtors.
It would solve the boomer problem as those boomers with chronic medical conditions would die in large numbers. This would include those currently in retirement, those in their 50s and up who are now unemployed, and the rest as they reach retirement.
We have not really recovered from the last major economic shock. Can we withstand another one? How many can we take before the economy cannot recover?
I believe the Republican politicians would love to see the economy crash again before the 2012 election. They are more concerned with power than the well being of the country. This is not to say that the Democratic politicians do not crave power. But at this point, their interest in retaining power means a stronger economy in the short term.
If we look a little farther out, we may find that the premature death of the boomers and a permanent drop in the economy is good in the long term. After the great die-off and a return to lower population levels, the planet may be healthier.
Sloth, capital gains in 2008 were probably zero with the equity market declining 38% that year. However, capital gains are part of the AGI (adjusted gross income) mentioned in my post.
Nurses and doctors will join the ranks of the unemployed.
I don’t know why they would. They would just make less money. Especially the specialists, health insurance, drug companies and CEO’s.
The countries who spend half what we do with similar results don’t have the problems you speak of.
“capital gains are part of the AGI (adjusted gross income) mentioned in my post.”
Well, throw out a link and/or express yourself more clearly, steamy. In fact, a link would be handy with that much data.
“the top 1% of income earners earned $1.645 trillion in income. The govt would have to tax them at 100% to close fiscal 2011’s $1.6 trillion deficit. ”
And what if we taxed those mega-rich at 50%? Wouldn’t that immediately reduce our deficit by half? That’s a mighty good, and relatively painless (wah wah, one less yacht this year, chaps) first step, no? Assuming we want to be Realistic about our fiscal problems, right?
Close the corporate tax loopholes, and reduce defense spending, and that deficit starts to really dwindle. Also, as you point out, much of the current deficit is due to the dwindling tax revenue typical of any recession/depression.
Looting the middle class is not the solution- it’s the problem.
“I don’t know why they would.”
I am projecting a significant drop in demand for their services. Some of them will not be needed. Some will merge practices to reduce costs.
No Medicaid and no Medicare means large numbers of people no longer consuming medical care. For a while, emergency rooms will be overflowing.
Any cut in Medicare and Medicaid would create a smaller drop in consumption of medical care. People will put off medical care in favor of food. No mammogram this year. Colonoscopy is a difficult sell even when fully covered. Expensive prescriptions - people will cut dosage in half. Or quit altogether.
People will put off medical care in favor of food.
If people in this country made better food choices, they wouldn’t need as much medical care.
Sorry Sloth, info is readily available on the irs website or at the tax foundation, http://www.taxfoundation.org/news/show/250.html, which uses the irs data. The top 1% are already taxed at an effective rate of 25% so increasing tax rate to 50% would raise an additional $400 billion, based on 2008 earnings, which would eliminate 25% of the current years deficit. Of course that assumes the rich wouldn’t engage in activities to hide/defer income when facing 50% tax rates. It was not my intent to say that the rich are being taxed too much, but merely to provide some perspective to the size of the problem and size of possible solution sets.
Beany-baby, good point about the 25% they already pay, but let’s not confuse ourselves by forgetting that you’re talking about the top 1%. What about if we expand the top tax rate to include the top 5%? Or 10%?
How do those numbers look?
Top 5% was $2.9 trillion in income and paid $600 billion in taxes at an effective tax rate of 21%. Increasing tax rate to 50% would raise an additional $840 billion. Unfortunately, you would now be taxing folks down to $159k in income at 50%. Top 10% was $3.9 trillion in income and paid $700 billion in taxes at an effective rate of 18.7%. At 50% tax rate the govt raises an additional $1.2 billion in taxes. Now you’re taxing folks down to $113k in income at 50%.
If we look a little farther out, we may find that the premature death of the boomers and a permanent drop in the economy is good in the long term. After the great die-off and a return to lower population levels, the planet may be healthier.
Gen X & Y far outnumber the boomers.
Then there is the Hispanic population growth. In most of the Southwest, whites are about to become the minority within the next 10 years.
“Top 5% was $2.9 trillion in income…”
Sooo….Taxing the top 5% at 50% would get us about $1.5 trillion- coincidentally almost exactly what our deficit is, without gutting the middle class’s benefits. (And we haven’t even included savings from closing corporate tax loopholes and reducing defense spending. Oh, and nationalizing health care- a proven money saver.)
Problem solved. Next problem?
Top 5% already paying 21% so you only generate an additional $800 billion. Good luck passing a 133% tax increase on folks earning less than 200k. Still work to do alpha.
LOL- I keep forgetting they’re still paying a wee bit! (Work with me- I have odd days off and I’m in the middle of my weekend- and it’s a wet one!)
I don’t seek to close the deficit immediately- I recognize the necessity of deficit spending during a downturn. But an additional $800 billion is quite a chunk of that scary deficit- surely enough to calm the ‘bond vigilantes’ (where are those guys anyway?). And who can afford to pay more than the top 5% of earners?
And would a tax increase that affected only the top 5%, while cutting our deficit in half, really be such a hard sell? Only because the rich own the MSM, and they can pretend that the top 5% of taxpayers is somehow the middle class.
“so you only generate an additional $800 billion.”
And where are your ‘only’ $800 billion dollars in cuts going to come from, if we don’t raise rates on the wealthiest?
“And where are your ‘only’ $800 billion dollars in cuts going to come from, if we don’t raise rates on the wealthiest?”
Where else? Social programs, specifically SS, Medicare, and Medicaid.
We have a spending problem is a euphemism for cutting social programs.
I personally favor rolling back all of the Bush tax rate cuts and not just on those who make over $250K. And I favor eliminating the income cap on SS contributions. And I favor some spending cuts to close the gap and start paying down the debt.
I am not certain that this is the best time to do all of the above, because I am not certain that the economy can sustain having that much money taken out of circulation. But if the debt is really as big a problem as the Republicans are claiming, then they need to be serious and increase taxes in addition to cutting spending. Cutting corporate tax rates at the same time as cutting corporate loopholes might actually favor small, American businesses ove large multi-nationals.
“We have a spending problem is a euphemism for cutting social programs.”
“But if the debt is really as big a problem as the Republicans are claiming, then they need to be serious and increase taxes in addition to cutting spending.”
Perzackly. All the so-called ‘realists’ who talk otherwise are full of beans.
“Merely scare tactics from a government that doesn’t want to quit raiding your children’s and grandchildren’s future to spend today.”
Instead they’re raiding MY SS and Medicare to pay for former and current tax breaks to corporations and wealthy elite.
You can lay off the propaganda now.
It is amusing when they play the ‘what about the children’ card, and then when you suggest returning tax rates to their historic average, they say ‘that’s a non-starter’. But what about the children? I guess they don’t count for much if it means the rich have to pay more. They only count when it means cuts for the middle class.
Just a note to polly and any other guvvies, this means that your next quarterly TSP (the goverment’s 401(k)*) statement will very complex. One of the games that the govenment plays to get around the debt ceiling is to put everybody’s current contributions into the G (or “special treasurys”) fund. My understanding is that people’s TSP accounts aren’t “debt held by the public” so doing this enables them to borrow more without increasing “public debt.” Once the debt ceiling is raised, they put the money back where the employee had directed it, and then “make the whole,” by whatever the difference is between what they earned, and what they would have earned. This means a bunch of extra and confusing line items on your statement.
*and since polly’s a tax lawyer, I have to say that yes, I realize that the paragraph enabling the TSP ISN’T actually 401(k), but that’s the quickest way to explain it to everybody else.
I had heard that they do something with borrowing from the employee retirement funds, but I didn’t know the details. So it is just redirecting all the new deposits into the G fund? They don’t do anything with actual pension trust fund or the already deposited TSP funds too?
Thanks for the info. I think I had imagined something a lot more complex, but that makes a lot of sense. I’m kind of glad it isn’t any more complicated than that.
You mean there IS an actual “pension trust fund?” I though FERS and CSRS were paygo. And anyway, that would be invisible to the employee. If it lasted long enough, I’m sure they WOULD re-invest previous contributions. But pulling large ammount of money OUT of Wall Street would piss of important people, not just peons so that’s probably a last resort. I just remember that last time the clock ran out on the debt ceiling and they had to play games it took me a long time to (mostly) puzzle out my quarterly statement.
“Some lawmakers mistakenly believe that not raising the debt ceiling would somehow tamp down future spending.”
Gee, that’s not a biased statement or anything. There are some lawmakers who disagree with this reporter. Therefore, the lawmakers must be mistaken, and it’s this reporter’s job to report my view as being the one that is correct.
Better to say that the the debt ceiling represents leverage to reduce appropriations. Keep in mind that Congress has ALREADY authorized and appropriated the spending of more money than the government is taking in. I don’t know of any process that automaticly (or even semi-automaticly like the failure to pass appropriation laws) determines exactly which programs or creditors get shutdown or stiffed if the debt ceiling isn’t raised. The legal limitiation on further borrowing is in direct conflict with the legal authority to spend on appropriated programs, the legal mandate* to spend on entitlements, the legal requirement to pay the holders of current debt, the legal requirement to pay salaries for work done, and contractors for supplies received. Absent a ruling from the courts (preferably the supremes), the choice of which laws get broken when an immovable object gets struck by an unstoppable force woud be in the hands of the executive branch. So, to the best of my knowledge, failing to approve borrowing sufficient to pay for everthing that congress has decided to spend money on does NOT automaticly cut future spending. Rather if all choices are equally illegal then the administration can pretty much choose to do whatever it wants to, because there is no legal way to do what congress has told it to.
*And it is the legal entitlement of those elegible that makes those payments “entitlements” that do not need to be appropriated.
Several people here in Salinas yesterday told me that the banks are now allowing short sales of houses to defaulting family members. I haven’t tried to confirm this yet. Anyone else have any info? It wouldn’t surprise me as the banks-RE complex are doing everything they can to artificially hold up property values for a period of time hoping that after several years property will turn up once again in value.
I’m not sure that the banks are hoping that the property value will go up, after all the lender to the current owner is probably not the one lending to the prospective buying relative. They’re hoping that family ties may persuade a loving relative to overpay for a house in the hope that it saves the FB from foreclosure and possible bankruptcy. The problem for the FBs lender is that it’s difficult to separate loving fools from fron conniving crooks with an non-arms length transaction.
Realtors Are Liars.
You’re joking!?
The Earth is 4 Billion years old, you right, I’m cornfused.
Meanwhile, Back in the Homeland
Economic Terror Wins the Day: We’re in a Depression
By MIKE WHITNEY
On Thursday, Gallup reported that “More than half of Americans say the U.S. economy is in a recession or a depression despite official data BLA BLA BLA
Stagflation: it’s what’s for breakfast
No amount of “Sunny Jim” propaganda has been able to change the public’s belief that things are getting worse. And things are getting worse, although not if one happens to be a hedge fund manager or one the lucky few at Goldman Sachs. Then, things have never been better.
Reminder: of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%
Lots of stats in the article and things oft discussed on HBB…
counterpunch DOT com/whitney05022011.html
“In the private sector, there is a stricking imbalance between where the recession’s job loses occured, and where the growth of the past 12 months was concentrated:
“Lower-wage industries constituted 23 percent of job loss, but fully 49 percent of recent growth.
“Mid-wage industries constituted 36 percent of job loss, but 37 percent of recent growth.
“Higher-wage industries constituted 40 percent of job loss, but only 14 percent of recent growth.”
Source: NELP (National Employment Law Project), from February 2011.
The above is harldly news for anyone who lives on Main St.
And they wonder why those overpriced houses aren’t selling?
Here in Tucson, there’s a house about a mile south of mine.
It used to be the headquarters of an oh-so-cool graphic design firm. I can recall seeing my boss interviewing one of the principals for the redesign of a magazine I helped put out back in the nineties. Guy had one of those oh-so-cool pony tails, and I thought, “What a poseur.”
My boss thought so too. She didn’t hire that firm for the redesign job.
Any-hoo, the firm dissolved a few years later when one of the principals took a job with a marketing company in Colorado. The other principal was (and I believe still is) a University of Arizona art faculty member, and, from what I’ve heard, he’s quite impressed with himself.
I think that one of them still owns this house, and it’s been on the market twice. Hasn’t sold either time.
It just went from being for sale to being for rent. Monthly nut is $1,900, which seems a bit high for this city, but, hey. You’re on University Boulevard at 4th Avenue, and that has to count for something, doesn’t it? (To me, it says that the sale price should have been $190k - 100x monthly rent and all that.)
That’s probably about where we need it to be. It’s the farming and manufacturing jobs that really need to come back to the US, so we begin to rebuild our economy from the bottom up. The highest-paid jobs (such as executive-level nonsense artist) are probably the ones that were contributing less to our overall economic picture.
I wish we could get a feel for how many of us are swapping stories and data online. People power vs ministry of truth mainstream media. I know I can check for any specific site but I’m talking about totals for certain information groups.
Just saw something on morning tv that said for the first time television usage in homes had dropped from 98% to 96%. Probably money problems. But I can’t help wonder if reliance on non-traditional sources is growing.
One of our kids and spouse use cable only for internet and phone. They are on the outskirts of a large city so a digital TV antenna pulls in a surprising number of stations for free. They supplement that with hulu, which costs nothing extra.
That’s precisely what I use cable for — Internet and VoIP. No teevee here either.
Not that it prevents my Local Cable Monopoly from sending me a weekly sales pitch mailing for some teevee service.
Last time I got one, I noticed that one of my nabe’s feral cats had taken a dump on my front porch. That cable teevee mailing proved to be a very handy flicker-offer for that poop on my porch. So, thank you, Local Cable Monopoly.
“cable teevee mailing”
We get three a week. They feed our worms.
We get three a week. They feed our worms.
You do vermiculture? Cool! I’d like to give that a try. Any tips?
Yes.
The first two batches of Red Wrigglers/Wigglers were kept in our un-heated garage in Napa, CA. During the winter it can frost and when it did, the thermal mass of the compost pile/worm bin was too low and there was a mass suicide and concentric rings of shriveled worms the next morning. We also took them out of their dirt/coir in which we had purchased them. And we had lots of citrus and onions in the pile. However, we do not feel that anything but the cold was the problem because the same thing happened at our new place. We put them in their own small bin where we feed them only the finest dregs: no onions, no citrus, not too much coffee, etc. But one evening we put them outside. Fortunately, they were on the deck and we could see many of them pouring out to get to ground the next morning. We mounted a successful rescue.
Additionally, during a rainstorm at the old place, I collected many huge nightcrawlers and threw them in the bin. As I emptied the composter months later at the new place. The entire bottom of the compost bin was a mass of nightcralwers. The vermi-compost is like crack cocaine for plants.
Hope that helps.
MrBubble
PS: Did I tell you that I had another bike stolen? Only 100 mi on it.
PPS: Bike to Work Day next Thursday here in SF/Bay!
What makes you think that the people in power don’t pay people to post on these and other web sites??
You’re right measton. That crosses my mind regularly. But those “plants” if you will can’t block out the other opinions. That back and forth is really where the value comes in if you’ve got the right players. There are obviously websites funded and moderated by the big boys too. But even when there are completely slanted articles they get called on it in the comment sections. That’s why I keep a broad number of sources and constantly try to churn those sources. I think getting the view from different perspectives really helps to get a grasp of the big picture.
Being able to read discussions over a longer period of time aids in the digestion of information too vs sound bite before the next commercial MSM.
CarrieAnn,
Your considered opinions bring said balance into our discussions here on HBB, and I, for one, greatly appreciate them. It’s telling that they trigger one resentful individual’s continual undercutting her own excellent commentary with personal attacks on the other bright(er) women who post here.
In this, may Oly’s equanimity guide us. (There but for the Grace of Gods, etc….)
They do. CarrieAnn is, herself, a paid troll. I can tell because she’s a BS artist, and very manipulative too.
please provide proof for your slanderous assertion.
Enough. Seriously.
No TV in our home since 1992. It was a pivotal move that enriched our lives. We do watch a few old shows on HULU from time to time.
Considering the trash that is passing for entertainment these days, we have no regrets.
Dang,
we abandoned it only in 1994. You beat me to it.
leosdad
Consider yourself an early adopter, too. Good to hear we’re not alone.
I didn’t have a TV all through the 80’s and 90’s. But I have been pleasantly surprised by the high quality of some of the HBO series.
If you haven’t watched “The Wire”, I highly recommend it.
No TV in our home since 1992. It was a pivotal move that enriched our lives. We do watch a few old shows on HULU from time to time.
Considering the trash that is passing for entertainment these days, we have no regrets.
The Wire is fantastic, but you don’t need cable for it. Netflix or the video store will do it.
sfrenter and MrBubble-
Thanks for the tip. I’ll check it.
“out”. I hit the button too soon.
My 20-something boys get their news from the Daily Show and the Colbert Report.
When they switched to digital broadcast in my city, there were at least 5 new channels added. And the picture is incredible.
Free broadcast is still a good bargain.
Am I missing something, or is President Obama now on the fast track for a second term?
It would be totally ironic if he were to run on a platform of national security and fiscal responsibility.
How would that be ironic? He is doing everything right in those regards, within the limitations of his power.
The bump will last a week or two, maybe a month, but not much more than that. If the president wins re-election it will be because he is a more appealing candidate than his opponent. That is a distinct possibility at this time, but not guaranteed. There is no such thing as being on the fast track for a second term a year and a half before the election. It is just too much time.
Point taken, Polly — lots can change in a year and a half. But how often has Rush Limbaugh ever congratulated a Democrat for anything?
and Dick Cheney.
I think hell just froze over.
They wouldn’t do it if the election were three months away. They would accuse him of manipulating the timing for political purposes. The fact that the election is a year and a half away is why they feel comfortable being polite. They know any bump will fade by the election.
By the way, I’m sure there will be a few people for whom this is enough of a big deal for them to be influenced by it even a year and a half from now. It just won’t be a particularly large number.
Certainly, their eyes are on the electoral horizon and their current reaction is probably akin to the reaction a harried parent gives to a child showing them their school art project just before family dinner.
By congratulating Obama, they are congratulating themselves.
So far, it’s Snow (Off) White versus the seven dwarfs.
Cinderella versus the seven dwarfs?
The bump will last a week or two, maybe a month, but not much more than that. If the president wins re-election it will be because he is a more appealing candidate than his opponent.
The bump might only last a month however I think Bin Laden’s death along with the contrast now being shown by the elected tea-party corporation sycophants will bring a lot of independents back to the Obama camp by the election.
The economy will be the wild-card IMO.
It erases the healthcare initiative as his defining moment.
Recall that after the Gulf War ended in 1991, President Bush was considered to be a shoo-in for re-election. We know how that turned out.
Anything can (and will) happen before the next election. The economy, the Middle East, the climate. We are in for a ride. Wheeeeeee!
People thought the same thing about George H.W. Busch after rousting Iraq out of Kuwait. None of the big name dems of the time (Gephardt, Cuomo, John Kerry) ran for the nomination and a little known governor from Arkansas won the presidency.
It was the economy, steam-ed!
Any incumbent with less than 50% support is in trouble. That is a rule of thumb that holds up and Obama seems to be below that magic number. Reid may have won in Nevada but only by a razor thin margin to a very weak opponent, he had that problem. My own opinion at this point is a very close election. It may even be decided in my home state. Could be another election where the winning party has a minority of the votes cast. If the Republican wins that is likely.
I think it’s all gonna boil down to who the Republicans offer up as his opponent. If they get a uniter, the conservatives could be a force to be reckoned with. If the party still limps in as divided as it’s been, Obama’s got #2.
I think the Republicans are remembered for being the party that srewed everything up when they had the White House and Congress, and then got a chance to shine again in Congress, only to act like babies.
True story about that little-known governor: In May 1982, when I was bicycling around the USA, I stopped overnight in Hope, Arkansas. At the time, the big deal around town was…
…the world-record water melon.
Thing grew so big that it made the Guinness Book of World Records. I saw the replica in a tub at the Chamber of Commerce.
The Chamber people took a picture of me and I got a little writeup in the local paper. They sent a copy along to my parents, and I now have it somewhere around the Arizona Slim Ranch.
At the time, Bill Clinton was running for the Arkansas governorship, but I did not hear his name mentioned once during my time in Hope.
The Bin Laden boost will be negated when the lack of authenticity of his “birth certificate” is proven.
Oh God nooooo Martha!! The birth certificate! Git yer gun! The birth certificate is gunna git us!!
He did good, but such sentiments are based on the belief that the events in Pakistan last week mean some kind of closure.
They don’t.
In so far as East v. West is concerned, a chapter was closed last weekend, not the book. Bigger, messier issues persist - issues that don’t lend themselves well to tidy 2-hour screenplays. Keep watching the ongoing Jasmine revolutions, the underlying/proxy struggle between the US and the Eurasian “superpowers”, the mounting global competition for resources, the exploding (and so far largely idle) youthful populations.
We’ve interwoven ourselves into another continent’s affairs to a greater extent than anything since the post WWII occupation of Europe. Only post WWII Europe and today’s Asia/Africa are entirely different animals. Now what?
I do wonder if we are just holding the baton for the Europeans in the post Ottoman Empire game.
Yes, the way we held it for the fallen colonial powers in SE Asia and probably will increasingly have to do in Africa as well.
He’s got Hwy’s vote unless,… one of my gals from Maine decides to show the young repubicanparty (the one’s with lil’ blus pills from mexico-via rash-limpbaughs) what a real woman / politician-states-person / sounds like when they have a casual conversation with a democrapt about helping Americans with a National health care issue.
Official: Mortgage fraud ‘is a ticking time bomb’
News-record.com
May 3, 2011
By Joe Killian
GREENSBORO — Guilford County Register of Deeds Jeff Thigpen says he has found thousands of examples of apparent fraud in local mortgage documents from major banks such as Wells Fargo and Bank of America.
His ongoing investigation has so far turned up 4,500 “highly suspicious” mortgage and other loan documents. They feature apparently forged signatures from fictitious bank vice presidents, he said.
The signatures are produced in “mortgage mills” contracted by the banks, Thigpen said, where documents can be falsified by the hundreds.
Representatives of Wells Fargo and Bank of America didn’t return calls Monday but have said previously that any such fraud is the fault of contract companies such as DocX, a Georgia-based company that a number of banks hired to process loan documentation.
“When these loans and mortgages were being written and then sold off as mortgage-backed securities, these banks and institutions didn’t bother to really keep track of the documentation,” Thigpen said. “It was quicker for them to sell them off as fast as they could, extend the loans and charge more fees. So then (the banks) have people go back and draw up these documents. Then they say they weren’t aware of any fraud.”
Thigpen said there is now a national epidemic of foreclosures in which people can’t tell who actually owns their loan. Many homes are foreclosed on using the sort of suspicious documents he’s now turning up, Thigpen said.
“But there’s another problem, even for those who aren’t foreclosed,” Thigpen said. “When people try to get another loan or mortgage, what are the chances they’ll be approved when the fraud attached to a (borrower’s) previous loan comes out? It won’t be their fault, but they’ll pay for it.”
http://www.news-record.com/content/2011/05/03/article/official_mortgage_fraud_is_a_ticking_time_bomb
“It won’t be their fault, but they’ll pay for it.”
A recurrent theme in these times.
Given that we are in a fact free and morals free void, once the banks get in the habit of creating fraudulent mortgage documents to cover their shoddy paperwork with people who actually did borrow, what’s to stop them from “creating” mortgage paperwork for my paid off house?
Thank you, WT! Excellent point.
I don’t understand the folks who think we should just let them get on with the foreclosures already, regardless of banks proving that they have the right to foreclose.
“Guilford County Register of Deeds Jeff Thigpen says he has found thousands of examples of apparent fraud in local mortgage documents from major banks such as Wells Fargo and Bank of America.”
Luckily for top officials at said banks, they are too-big-to-jail.
The real legal question is what level of responsibility the banks have for the actions of their contractors. It has been a long time since I studied this, but my recollection is that when an entity is acting as an agent on your behalf, you have a lot of responsibility if they do something wrong when acting according to your instructions. This is in contrast to an employee where you may be responsible for what they do while working even if they are not following instructions - you have more responsibility to supervise the employee. Assuming that general rule is correct (again, it has been a long time and it is going to vary by state especially because it relates to real estate), what happens in the middle instance, where your agent behaves badly and not according to your specific instructions, but where you almost certainly had to know that the work you requested they do could not be done properly in the time frame you demanded at the cost you contracted for. If you knew that to get 1000 documents processed a day would require $x to be done properly (because of the number of trained people that would be needed) and you contracted for one third that cost, do you retain responsibility for the mismanagement?
Are the contractors that you’re refering to the ones who were supposed to keep track of, file and notorize the initial mortgage notes, or those who were paid to clean up the mess afterwards? This is kind of like hiring three guys and a truck to clean up a superfund site. You’ve gotta KNOW that there’s no conceivable way that that LPS would be able to take the mess of incomplete paperwork and bad assignments and for what they were being paid. OTOH, it possible that the banks really thought that MERS was doing its job in the first place when the loans were initially securitized, and this toxic mess was created in the first place.
And there is the rub. They did think that MERs was OK. Everyone did. And it was as long as all it had to do was keep track of who had the beneficial right to the stream of payments generated by the trust. That is pure contract law relating to nothing but money and you can pretty much contract to whatever you want in those circumstances. The problem didn’t arise until you had an actual foreclosure on the table which brings real estate law into play and all sorts of other rules about actually having original documents and recording them with the county and all that stuff.
But the agency issue is kind of interesting too. I don’t know that it can ever win (especially with outsourcing making it hard to know how low you can go with paperwork costs), but it is legally interesting.
“They did think that MERs was OK. Everyone did.”
Au contraire, MERS has always had its doubters (particularly the county clerks and local RE lawyers). Their doubts were just never reported by the MSM (surprise, surprise).
I appologize. The people involved in creating the securitized bonds did. They got all the lawyers to sign off on these things. Once your get a sign off from attorney’s who charge over $1000 an hour, you are pretty sure that things are OK. I wouldn’t be surprised if the legal opinions had clauses in them saying that the opinion was based on all the documentation being retained. Losing the documents wasn’t part of the original plan. It happened because keeping track of the physical documents is expensive, not by design.
The doubters were expressing issues with the fact that the stream of payments were transferring without the actual ownership of the secured interest transferring. But as I pointed out, that isn’t needed for the stream of payments as long as everyone agrees to play by the rules of the game. The county clerks and local real estate lawyers don’t get to impose their rules until you are dealing with a foreclosure. Which is when the problem happened. But under the MERs system, the real recorded transfer was supposed to happen if there was a foreclosure - it was just supposed to happen only once for the person who owned the right to the stream of payments at the time of the foreclosure. They intended to have the transfer happen if someone needed to take a loss, but not determine who that person was until it happened - instead of having the recorded transfer happen everytime the right to receive the stream of payments transferred.
Theoretically, it seems to work. But as any engineer will tell you, you have to try it out first. Real life is messier than theory. Seriously, if the auditors had been even remotely compentent and demanded to see a randomly selected 5% of the documents to confirm they exisited, a lot of the mess would have been stopped just as MERs was getting started. The lack of record tracking must have started very early.
Well to be fair, back in say 2004, the minutia of legal issues in the mortgage industry not only wasn’t front page news, it wasn’t even short piece on the business section news.
Would it be in everyone’s best interest to have their mortgage holder prove ownership of said mortgage before foreclosure or other credit difficulties arose? Just thinking that I may be making payments to someone who has no ownership rights to my home! If they have no ownership rights would I have squatter rights?
“not only wasn’t front page news, it wasn’t even short piece on the business section news.”
Yeah, but isn’t an investigative reporter’s job to root out little-known but important issues and publicize them, not just to report what all the yobbos are already talking about?
eddiamand. There are two separate things here. You have a loan, with a series of payments that you have promised to make to repay that loan. As polly said, that’s all contract law and is unaffected by the local peculairties of real property law that MERS was designed as an end run around. And there is the note, which gives the lender the right to take you the real property that you have pledged as collateral in case you don’t make the payments that you have agreed on. Certainly in Maryland, Florida and many “recourse” states, the that note does not remove the lender’s right to go thorugh more stringent court procedures to get a “deficiency judgement” which would enable them to get other assets that you might own to pay them back the money you’ve borrowed.
Yeah, I think a judge’s or jury’s subjective starts to come in to play on stuff like that. IMO, if the jury decides that the bank either knew or should have known about the fraud, then they will probably charge some penalty to the bank.
And they will resolve this just like they did for robosigning: with a fine and a pass.
May 3, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT
The Fed’s impossible dream
Commentary: Keeping inflation and unemployment low is difficult
By Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) — Keeping both inflation and unemployment low is extremely difficult — if not impossible.
When it was created back in 1913, the Federal Reserve was given one mission: create money and safeguard its value. And for the first 65 years of its existence, the central bank operated with this objective in mind.
As simple as it sounds, it was not all that easy. Sometimes the Fed created too much money, while at other times it did not produce enough.
It was criticized for this by a number of economists, most notably Milton Friedman. He blamed the Fed for creating booms and busts over the years because it did not keep the money supply’s growth rate steady.
As if it didn’t have enough problems, the Congress in 1978 gave the Fed another objective: besides protecting the value of the dollar, it also had to promote growth and keep unemployment low.
This was easier said than done — especially since low unemployment was generally accompanied by higher rates of inflation. In addition, unemployment did not seem as though it could be influenced by monetary policy, at least not as directly as the price level.
…
I expect to see us emulate China with food programs, increases in minimum wage, etc. Keep those at the bottom from rioting while those in the middle and upper middle are taxed and inflated and robbed into poverty.
Keeping both inflation and unemployment low is extremely difficult
But keeping both high is easy!
Spreading yet another falsehood.
As I have seen in my lifetime, high inflation has NOTHING to do with low unemployment and vice-versa.
It has EVERYTHING to do with market speculation and manipulation.
Diary of a Recession Baby
May 2, 2011, 2:07 p.m. EDT
Burned out at work? Tips to ease your workload
By Ruth Mantell, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Given all of the work that’s been piled on employees at leanly staffed companies during the weak economy, it’s understandable that some workers want to scale back.
Almost four in 10 workers said one of the most important attributes they will look for in a new employer is a less-stressful work environment, besides competitive pay and benefits, according to a survey of more than 5,000 workers and 2,000 employers conducted in February and March by jobs website CareerBuilder.com.
Guiding Penn Station’s trains
The workers in charge of the intricate movement of the Long Island Rail Road into and out of Penn Station control more than just trains. The flow of commuters waiting for track assignments is also governed by their decisions.
But with unemployment still high, employees may be wary about talking to their boss about working less.
“The recession resulted in smaller staffs, heavier workloads and longer hours. While companies have become accustomed to doing more with less, workers may be feeling stretched too thin,” said Jennifer Grasz, a spokeswoman for CareerBuilder.com. “As the economy improves, workers are growing more confident in their job prospects and are seeking out opportunities with more manageable workloads and better work-life balance.”
…
“The recession resulted in smaller staffs, heavier workloads and longer hours. While companies have become accustomed to doing more with less, workers may be feeling stretched too thin,”
LIke management cares. If you burn out there’s a pile of resumes for potential replacements.
We are not even close, read up on sweat shops and see what people will do to put food on the table and how those people will be exploited.
Oh I know it can get worse, a lot worse.
A vivid memory I have of my last year at HP was when a worker bee complained about the ever increasing workload combined with a recent across the board paycut.
The management droid told him he was welcome to go work someplace else.
Why we have unions:
“The recession resulted in smaller staffs, heavier workloads and longer hours. While companies have become accustomed to doing more with less, workers may be feeling stretched too thin,”
LIke management cares. If you burn out there’s a pile of resumes for potential replacements.
Precisely what all those too-highly-paid teachers are fighting for. Where there once were aides in the classroom, there is no only one person to teach and manage 20-40 students. No PE teachers, no librarians, no art teachers, no recess monitors: the classroom teacher does it all.
And if the teacher’s 35 students don’t all perform up to par with “No Child Left Behind” - ahhh, time for “merit pay”.
And if the teacher’s 35 students don’t all perform up to par with “No Child Left Behind” - ahhh, time for “merit pay”.
Let’s see … of those 35 kids …
10 come from households where English is not spoken
10 more come from families on welfare
That’s the problem with having a permanent underclass … their kids won’t do well in school.
“…there is now only one person to teach and manage 20-40 students. No PE teachers, no librarians, no art teachers, no recess monitors: the classroom teacher does it all.”
Sounds like my elementary school years in the early to mid 1950’s. Oh yeah, we did have an art teacher for an hour a week. Recess monitor? What’s that?
I still have the classroom photo of the 30 kids in the combined 4th and 5th grade class I was in. There weren’t enough of either grade to justify another teacher so each half of our class had a half-time teacher.
“As the economy improves, workers are growing more confident in their job prospects and are seeking out opportunities with more manageable workloads and better work-life balance.”
Does this sentiment also apply to the folks who cut the lawns, clean the bathrooms, and bounce the babies of the urban professional class?
The bottom 50% might as well get used to being poor.
And as for the urban professional class, they too are not immune to the Great American Layoff and Never Work Again machine.
…as many have found out the hard way in the last 20 years after being the loudest proponents for cutting the wages of those overpriced union janitors.
Bingo, because they too are overpriced compred to the “Urban professional class” in 3rd world countries.
This story just appeared in our local paper w/in the past few weeks. Mexicans brought here on gov visas to work the fairs. Promised one amount of money to make them eager to leave their home but paid far less and given barely food, drink or a place to sleep. Also the hours were like slave labor.
http://blog.syracuse.com/opinion/2011/04/close_to_slavery_who_was_watch.html
I certainly hope the folk who employed said Mexicans are put in jail. Can’t click link right now.
There is a LOT of exploited “guest worker” scams going on in this country.
We already have slave labor.
Google News “guest worker exploitation”
Commodity Speculation:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/27/how_goldman_sachs_created_the_food_crisis?page=full
“Then, in 1999, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission deregulated futures markets. All of a sudden, bankers could take as large a position in grains as they liked, an opportunity that had, since the Great Depression, only been available to those who actually had something to do with the production of our food.”
Hmmm… 1999. Busy year for regulatory repeal. Glass-Steagall eliminated too.
Great article:
“The structure of the GSCI paid no heed to the centuries-old buy-sell/sell-buy patterns. This newfangled derivative product was “long only,” which meant the product was constructed to buy commodities, and only buy. At the bottom of this “long-only” strategy lay an intent to transform an investment in commodities (previously the purview of specialists) into something that looked a great deal like an investment in a stock — the kind of asset class wherein anyone could park their money and let it accrue for decades (along the lines of General Electric or Apple). Once the commodity market had been made to look more like the stock market, bankers could expect new influxes of ready cash. But the long-only strategy possessed a flaw, at least for those of us who eat. The GSCI did not include a mechanism to sell or “short” a commodity.
This imbalance undermined the innate structure of the commodities markets, requiring bankers to buy and keep buying — no matter what the price. Every time the due date of a long-only commodity index futures contract neared, bankers were required to “roll” their multi-billion dollar backlog of buy orders over into the next futures contract, two or three months down the line. And since the deflationary impact of shorting a position simply wasn’t part of the GSCI, professional grain traders could make a killing by anticipating the market fluctuations these “rolls” would inevitably cause. “I make a living off the dumb money,” commodity trader Emil van Essen told Businessweek last year. Commodity traders employed by the banks that had created the commodity index funds in the first place rode the tides of profit.”
What the article doesn’t bother stating is the role of the Federal Reserve creating/lending vast sums at near zero interest to those same investment banks to finance their speculative commodity bets.
The Commodities Modernization Act was just as damaging as the repeal of Glass Steagall.
Both actions basically allowed Wall St. do whatever they wanted. So they did.
It moved supply demand from the physical world to the speculative world and has distorted everything, while allowing Wall St. to get away with robbery because most people still think prices are coupled to physical supply and demand.
See, socialized medicine is good for some things:
ABC News reported on Sunday that to identify Bin Laden, officials used DNA from the brain of a half-sister who had died at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston. A spokeswoman for Massachusetts General said the hospital had not been able to verify that report.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/03/science/03dna.html?smid=tw-nytimes&seid=auto
Lookee at the yield on the 10-year taking a nice stroll downward.
LONDON (Reuters) - Investors pulled back some of their exposure to equities in April, buying bonds and turning to safe-haven cash amid worries that global economic growth could falter from its rapid pace, Reuters polls showed on Tuesday.
Surveys of 56 leading investment houses in the United States, Europe ex-UK, Japan and Britain showed exposure to stocks falling to 51.3 percent in the month from 52.6 percent in March.
Bonds rose slightly to 34.6 percent from 34.0 while cash was lifted to 5.1 percent in a balanced portfolio from 4.7 percent a month earlier.
It was the highest exposure to cash — where investors park money in times of uncertainty — since September, around the time stock markets began rallying on prospects for renewed asset buying by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Goody. When equity investors are “all in” it’s time to bail.
Nielson says TV set ownership drops 2%
There are two reasons for the decline, according to Nielsen. One is poverty: some low-income households no longer own TV sets, most likely because they cannot afford new digital sets and antennas.
The other is technological wizardry: young people who have grown up with laptops in their hands instead of remote controls are opting not to buy TV sets.
NYTimes
I wonder what the definition of “TV Set” is. For instance, what’s the difference between a “TV” and a “monitor”? Speakers? A tuner? Several of the devices used as a “TV” in my house, probably would not count as a traditional TV Set: HiDef projector, 24″ LCD HDMI Monitor.
You might even argue that an old tube-TV, is no longer a “TV”… it does not have a functional tuner capability. It’s just an analog monitor now.
You can find the days highlights on YouTube and other sites.
No need to have a tv at all.
This trend will only grow.
” most likely because they cannot afford new digital sets”
Befoire the flat panel revolution you could buy a 20″ set for $100. It seems that these days the “entry level” has been raised to a 32″ LCD that sells for $300+
On my way to work I pass a Rent-to-Own place that advertises a 60″ set plus a PS3 for “$129/month” (It doesn’t say how many months).
The scary part is if you shop around, you can get a 1080p, 120Hz, 42″ thin panel LCD for under $600.
One repuitable on-line retailer had a major-label one yesterday. Free shipping, no tax. Spending $300 on a 20″ would be a waste with what you can get by shopping around. Rent to own? Suckers game.
A few weeks ago, I got a Nielsen survey. And I proudly returned it, noting that this is a television-free home. With an exclamation point.
But I did keep the shiny new dollar bills that came with the survey. I mean, two bucks is two bucks, and I can always find some use for them.
I would speculate on several factors, some already mentioned:
Poverty - TV set pawned, sold or broken and cannot be replaced
Internet - Self explanatory
Lack of interest - 500 channels and nothing but crap on 490 of them
Price of new TVs - Yeah, the bargain $100 TV is gone.
Also, there is a difference between a monitor and a TV, but they are highly technical. (like refresh rates, mono-synch vs. multi-synch, dedicated video circuitry, built in tuners, etc)
Some good data points.
One issue not talked about. US Corporations that do not have large presences overseas really get hit with the high corporate tax rate and those that a international (GE’s and Googles) get to skate…
————————–
U.S. Tax Rates Are High and Tax Avoidance Is Growth Industry
By Aaron Task | Daily Ticker
The Senate Finance Committee held a tax reform hearing Tuesday to discuss, among other things, whether the tax burden is equitable in America.
Among other things, those who believe the tax burden is too high will doubtless be citing the following stats:
At 35%, the U.S. corporate tax rate is the second highest among developed economies, trailing only Japan.
The top 10% of U.S. earners paid the highest percentage of taxes in an OECD study of 24 advanced economies.
51% of U.S. households paid no federal income taxes in 2009, according to a new study for the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation.
Thanks to loopholes, subsidies and write-offs, few (if any) major U.S. corporations pay a 35% effective tax rate. In fact, 55% of U.S. companies paid no federal income taxes in at least one year during a seven-year period studied by the GAO, The NY Times reports.
As recent controversy over GE’s tax burden revealed, tax avoidance is a major growth industry in America today. And as Dan Gross notes, most corporations seem to prefer the current system to a flat rate without deductions, as some reformers are advocating.
As for the tax burden on individuals, “many who paid no federal income tax for 2009 are likely low-wage workers, students and the elderly,” The WSJ reports. Furthermore, most of them did pay Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes, which are very regressive forms of taxation.
Since 1973, the median take home pay of full-time workers is virtually unchanged on an inflation-adjusted basis.
The top 11,000 households in America have more income than the bottom 25 million.
Since 1976, 58% of real income growth has gone to the top 1% of Americans.
There are plenty of loop holes for US corporations.
Yup. The argument over tax rates is pointless unless the loopholes are closed. In a way the rate debate is a distraction because methinks that they’d really start sweating if the focus shifted to the loopholes.
You are right, Steve J. And if the US wants to stop them from moving overseas, all it has to do is charge them tariffs for importing their products back here. Not that difficult.
Or just stop giving them tax breaks in the first place.
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1249465620080812
“Is the American consumer really influenced by the Fed’s policies of money printing and a falling dollar? In the past few months, the CPI has risen while disposable income has fallen at a five percent annual rate. This is equivalent to putting on a five percent national sales tax. Moreover, if inflation is just measured by the cost of necessities, the cost of living is rising at 10 percent a year”.
Article: Boomerang Inflation
← Richard Benson surveys the economic scene and sees stagflation settling in, thanks to the explosion of currency printing by the Federal Reserve.
This is equivalent to putting on a five percent national sales tax.
Perfect summary of what our FEd is doing. Taxing the poor and middle class and upper middle class and lower class rich via inflation to bail out the elite. Seriously with less disposable income many of those who consider themselves rich will find that they are not viewed that way by Washington and Wall Street. Many business owners will see a collapse in demand and a collapse in revenue.
When the middle class is gone who will be their customers.
The middle class needs to respond by sitting out the next decade or two. Perhaps for most it won’t even be a choice, but for those of the middle class still having the luxury of being able to make such choices - they ought to consider acting on it.
If anything, mother earth will be most grateful.
“The middle class needs to respond by sitting out the next decade or two.”
Let’s all go to Galt’s Gulch and RV Park. Hope they let us parasites in.
Whatever, it’s a moot point - most won’t even have a choice in the matter. As for the rest, since when does taking a pass on the conspicuous consumption and debt laden lifestyles of the past few decades equate to “going Galt”?
“When the middle class is gone who will be their customers.”
Wall St has already decided that the middle class is irrelevent and cheers and rallies while Main St. continues to burn to the ground.
Plutocracy baby!
The “middle class” is not irrelevant, it is being converted into a working class that will be indentured serfs to credit cards and mortgages instead of to the lord of the manor.
The needs, desires and well being of the middle class is irrelevant to the upper class as long as they don’t start shouting “Vive La Revolution” and sharpening the guillotine.
The needs, desires and well being of the middle class is irrelevant to the upper class as long as they don’t start shouting “Vive La Revolution” and sharpening the guillotine.
There’s a reason we have a well paid, mercenary military.
“There’s a reason we have a well paid, mercenary military.”
PFC over 3 years (meaning he’s reenlisted) $1950 per month. E-5 buck sergeant over 6 years $2620 per month. 1st Lieutenant over 3 years $4207 per month. And in exchange for an extra $225 per month you get a chance to have a limb or half your face blown off. Or come home in a box.
Don’t forget all the non taxable allowances. A housing allowance in San DIego can be worth up to $2000 a month.
Yeah, its dangerous. But a lot of guys and gals are signing up for economic reasons.
FWIW, every guy I know in the military around here has a nice house and a cool set of wheels. Granted, these guys aren’t grunts.
Local news is reporting that gasoline prices in the whole of both IL and IN have reached their highest levels in history - exceeding even those levels seen during the summer of 2008.
What bullcrap. I just saw inflation jump to 20%+ last year in my city and it looks like it’s on track for the same again this year.
10%? HAH! I wish.
OLYMPIA, Wash. – Several states have started reassessing their medical marijuana laws after stern warnings from the federal government that everyone from licensed growers to regulators could be subjected to prosecution.
The ominous-sounding letters from U.S. attorneys in recent weeks have directly injected the federal government back into a debate that has for years been progressing at the state level. Warnings in Washington state led Gov. Chris Gregoire to veto a proposal that would have created licensed marijuana dispensaries.
Gregoire, the chair of the National Governors Association, now says she wants to work with other states to push for changes to federal marijuana laws to resolve the legal disputes caused by what she described as prosecutors reinterpreting their own policies.
“The landscape is changing out there. They are suggesting they are not going to stand down,” Gregoire said.
The Department of Justice said two years ago that it would be an inefficient use of funds to target people who are in clear compliance with state law. But U.S. attorneys have said in their recent memos that they would consider civil or criminal penalties for those who run large-scale operations — even if they are acceptable under state law.
In a letter to Gregoire, Washington state’s two U.S. attorneys warned that even state employees could be subject to prosecution for their role in marijuana regulation. The letter does not specify how that would happen, but the implication is that state workers who are involved in approving and regulating the sale of an illegal drug are committing a crime.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_medical_marijuana_feds
Libertarian on this one. The FEDS need to stay out of this. My guess is ETOH and big pharma are pushing the issue.
The legal industry is not doubt afraid of the potential of less future business.
Good. I do not believe that marijuana has a legitimate medicinal purpose.
Other than helping keep chemo patients alive?
Marijuana does not help keep chemotherapy patients alive. There are more effective drugs to help them with their appetite without the negative side effects of marijuana.
Like what?
Oh alpha, I don’t remember. It’s too hard to provide a linky, maybe next time.
I think its a good cure for ADD.
Cure? I’d say at best it’s a nice relief from the anxiety that usually accompanies ADD while making the brain function even worse over the long term.
“I think its a good cure for ADD.”
Dave’s not here, man.
“Good. I do not believe that marijuana has a legitimate medicinal purpose.”
Big V, even though I am a recovering libertarian, I still get a little freaked out when people start using their “beliefs” to dictate what is/is not OK for me to put into my body without legal repercussions. Is there any way that you could focus on the data, either for or against its medicinal use, rather than just a statement of your personal beliefs? I know that peer reviewed studies are hard to come by because of the prohibition, but even those few that do exist concerning the “weed efficacy” might do better to move the conversation along.
MrBubble
PS: Have you tried Ray’s the Steaks near Courthouse yet??
My thing is that if you want to legalize it, then legalize it. I just don’t think it’s right to come up with some hare-brained excuse to let people do it, even though it’s still officially illegal. It’s cowardly.
I understand that a lot of people just feel like we need to draw the line somewhere with drugs. Drugs and alcohol do have a lot of negative effects on society, but I guess you have to let people get high once in a while because they are going to do it one way or the other. We can have alcohol, cigarettes, coffee and diet Coke. I feel like that’s enough.
Sure, pot is a real grey area. It’s not as terrible as heroine or meth or even coke, but I guess most people feel like it’s good enough to draw the line at the grey area.
If the nation decides to change its mind and legalize/regulate pot, then I think that would be better than just telling kids to get a prescription for it.
OK, I see how you feel and I can appreciate your desire for a “line in the sand” rather than gray areas. But I don’t think that the studies reflect your fears/feelings of the reality of marijuana’s deleterious effects nor of it’s legitimacy as a curative. It is not a panacea, to be sure, but I have found that there aren’t many documented cases of deaths attributed to recreational (non-habitual) use. In fact, there are numerous cases where the quality of life/length of life was substantially increased with medical use.
Here’s a site that might interest you.
MrBubble/DrFeelgood
PS: “It’s not as terrible as heroine or meth or even coke” Weed is not even in the same league/conference/sport.
Disclaimer: I personally have no need to alter my psyche through drugs and use neither pot nor alcohol. I occasionally use caffeine.
Alcohol’s effects on the liver and the unborn make it much worse of a recreational drug than pot. Fetal alcohol syndrome can be caused with one instance of mild use before the mother knows she is pregnant.
http://www.bing.com/health/article/mayo-125485/Fetal-alcohol-syndrome?q=fetal+alcohol+syndrome
“Although doctors aren’t sure how much alcohol you’d have to drink to place your baby at risk, they do know that the more you drink, the greater the chance of problems. Because there’s no known safe amount of alcohol consumption during pregnancy, don’t drink alcohol if you are or think you are pregnant or you’re attempting to become pregnant. You could put your baby at risk even before you realize you’re pregnant.”
I found this interesting study of newborns in Jamaica, comparing those whose mothers smoked pot heavily with those that didn’t.
http://www.druglibrary.org/schaffer/hemp/medical/can-babies.htm
“Although no positive or negative neurobehavioral effects of prenatal exposure were found at 3 days of life using the Brazelton examination, there were significant differences between the exposed and nonexposed neonates at the end of the first month. Comparing the two groups, the neonates of mothers who used marijuana showed better physiological stability at 1 month and required less examiner facilitation to reach an organized state and become available for social stimulation. The results of the comparison of neonates of the heavy-marijuana-using mothers and those of the nonusing mothers were even more striking. The heavily exposed neonates were more socially responsive and were more autonomically stable at 30 days than their matched counterparts. The quality of their alertness was higher; their motor and autonomic systems were more robust; they were less irritable; they were less likely to demonstrate any imbalance of tone; they needed less examiner facilitation to become organized; they had better self-regulation; and were judged to be more rewarding for caregivers than the neonates of nonusing mothers at 1 month of age. “
Alcohol withdrawl symptoms can be life threatening. Apparently, quitting pot is like quitting cigarettes. There was a small study that compared pot to cigarettes in Vermont. 6 men and 6 women who “used marijuana at least 25 days a month and smoked at least 10 cigarettes a day.”
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080124145015.htm
Alcohol can also cause long term brain damage in those who abuse it, although I have not seen any comparisons between alcohol and pot as to which is worse.
Drunk driving is a serious problem. I haven’t seen any studies that show the effect of pot on driving.
IMO, pot is less destructive than alcohol and it should probably be legal.
PS
I am in Richmond, so I don’t think I’m anywhere near Ray’s. My neighbor took me to the Olive Garden; she’s such a sweetie.
Gotcha. Thought you were in NoVa.
I just don’t think it’s right to come up with some hare-brained excuse to let people do it, even though it’s still officially illegal. It’s cowardly.
Pot is great for relieving nausea….for some, even better than other drugs.
http://www.latimes.com/features/health/la-he-marijuanapro18-2008aug18,0,3084928.story
Pro: Marijuana Use for Chronic Pain and Nausea
Smoked marijuana can bring relief to sufferers of neuropathic pain comparable to that of other painkiller drugs, some studies show.
Medical marijuana use has a history stretching back thousands of years. In prebiblical times, the plant was used as medicinal tea in China, a stress antidote in India and a pain- reliever for earaches, childbirth and more throughout Asia, the Middle East and Africa.
In recent decades, medical researchers have investigated marijuana’s effects on various kinds of pain — from damaged nerves in people with HIV, diabetes and spinal cord injury; from cancer; and from multiple sclerosis. Marijuana has also been hypothesized to help with nausea induced by chemotherapy and antiretroviral therapy, and with severe loss of appetite as seen in people with the AIDS wasting syndrome.
The weed’s actions are due to the active ingredients tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) and some 60 other cannabinoids, which mimic the action of chemicals — known as endogenous cannabinoids — that exist naturally in the brain. Those cannabinoids activate receptors in our nerves, triggering physiological responses.
New Foreclosures Jump 21 Percent
Foreclosure activity increased sharply in March, a sign that lenders are coming to grips with the documentation problems that led to the robo-signing scandal last fall.
Foreclosures were initiated on more than 217,000 homes in March, a 21 percent increase over February’s rate, according to information released today by the HOPE NOW alliance. Nearly 85,000 properties were forfeited through foreclosure sales during the month, a 35 percent increase over February.
The increase in foreclosures occurred despite a declining trend in mortgage delinquencies. There were 2.63 million residential mortgages at least 60 days past due in March, a 6 percent decline from February’s level of 2.78 million, which in turn represented a similar decline from 2.95 million in January.
Meanwhile, the number of at-risk homeowners obtaining private mortgage loan modifications from their lenders also increased significantly in March. Nearly 77,000 propriety loan modifications were completed in March, up from 61,000 the month before. Four out of five reduced borrower’s monthly mortgage payments, with just over half reducing payments by 10 percent or more.
Read more: http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2011-05/new-foreclosures-jump-21-percent.aspx?storyid=73834#ixzz1LJ92cNJ5
This is what 600K will get you in San Francisco.
Interesting story, especially so because I am friends with this guy’s ex-wife and I know the kid.
“When Jack Hagerty closed on his new condo three weeks ago, he thought it had everything he wanted: a quiet, safe Glen Park location, easy access to BART and a backyard for his 10-year-old son. Turns out it came with an extra feature - a self-described “leather sex” enthusiast living downstairs.”
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/05/02/BAFF1JAT3D.DTL#ixzz1LJES7Cib
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/05/03/BAFF1JAT3D.DTL&tsp=1
So the Realtor Lied.
Why is this hard for any of us to believe?
WRT lying realtors, there is an article in smart money (people are smart) linked off the front page of Marketwatch: Is Home Ownership Overrated?
Surprised to see that there, and absent any NAR rebuttal as well…
“leather sex” enthusiast living downstairs.”
LOL!!!!!
That’s a tough (Har, tough as leather!) situation. This is why we have drab suburbs.
My new neighbors are driving me batshit, but I am managing. I told them their cat was crapping all over my lawn, and mutilating it’s kills on my front porch, and they brought the cat inside. I have no idea if they’re mad about it, but I really don’t care. Now some dude is crashing with them and when the wind us right, his cigarette smoke drifts into our house. Everyone has their limits, but kids or no kids, I would probably not like living next to someone who makes sex noise all of the time. Any persistent, obtrusive noise is not something I can handle.
Jingle mail for that guy.
Any persistent, obtrusive noise is not something I can handle.
Muggy, you’re welcome to move next door to me any time you’d like. I’m not a noise fan either.
And, like you, I don’t care if inconsiderate jerk neighbors don’t like me after I call them on their behavior. We’re not going to be friends anyway.
As for wandering cats, I’ve found a cat repellant recipe that I’m going to try. Not toxic by any means, but it has a smell that cats are said not to like.
I’ve already tried cayenne pepper, and that only keeps the kitties away for a day or so.
Hear, hear (the sounds of nature that is)! We had an obsessive-compulsive neighbor who used his leaf blower twice a week from January to September, and almost every day from October through December. Couldn’t stand even a few leaves on his wooded (!) lot. Thankfully he’s moved.
Last night sitting on the porch well after dark I heard a group of coyotes howl and yip. Neato!
Everyone views their home differently. I’m not a NIMBY/zoned use freak, but I do view my dwelling as a refuge. I’d love to be your neighbor.
BE QUIET! GET OFF MY LAWN! That lady, over there… DON’T BOTHER HER EITHER.
This ‘hood is quiet, dammit!
I’ve heard citrus peels will keep cats away from wherever you put them. (Although apparently worms don’t like them, either.)
Never tried it, though.
Been tossing those into the front yard for several months. I aim ‘em at the mulch layer under my mesquite tree because that’s where the cats lay in wait for birds.
So far, those peels have done nothing to keep the cats away.
I’m going to mix my cat deterrent formula tomorrow. Am beta-testing it around my shed, which is a favorite target of male cats.
I’m the same way Muggy an ArizonaSlim. I try to treat all my neighbors the way I want to be treated. I close my doors softly. The downstairs neighbor in Phoenix SLAMS the door all the time. I am quiet as a mouse in both apartments.
I wake up very early so I am very careful to not make unnecessary noise as to wake my neighbors. I don’t talk in a normal voice outside other residences at odd hours - I whisper if I am talking with someone.
The older I get the less appealing a loft would be to me. I would have no guarantee of quiet neighbors. Same with buying a SFH. The people these days are carelessly uncivil compared to decades ago. So I may as well keep 12 month leases in case things get so bad I have to find a (hopefully) quieter apartment complex.
Hey, Bill! (I’m whispering because it’s after dark.) Wish you were my neighbor as well.
For-profit colleges face lawsuits, U.S. scrutiny
Traci Joyce, who graduated from California Culinary Academy $130,000 in debt, handles pizza dough at Zachary’s Chicago Pizza in San Ramon - where she worked before cooking school.
For the next 20 years, Matt Foist will be paying off his $46,000 in cooking-school loans, and all he says he has to show for it is a useless chef’s diploma, a nice set of knives - but no job.
He said he’d be lucky to make $15 an hour in the culinary world, even though the school told him he would land jobs with annual salaries of $45,000. So he’s gone back to his software career.
The 46-year-old, who believes he was scammed by San Francisco’s California Culinary Academy, is one of the representatives of a class-action lawsuit in which a $40 million settlement offer from the cooking school is pending.
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/04/30/MN4G1J8PRR.DTL#ixzz1LJUXiud9
I have a cousin who is a sous chef in Chicago.
He briefly attended culinary school, then decided that it was a waste of time. Instead, he went to work in restaurants and started learning on the job.
From what my aunt says and from what I’ve been able to dig up online, he’s making quite a name for himself.
I really like to cook. The thing is, nothing teaches it better than experience. I think I would hate to cook in a restaraunt, but that’s another thing you can only learn by experience.
alpha
Thanks for the article. Interesting. Those folks have lots of dreams and no common sense, imo.
The new trend in my area is Phlebotomy School, which granted is only a couple grand at the adult school, to private medical college tuition. I am meeting countless dysfuctionals going into it. It’s only a 6-12 week (basic to advance) course. It reminds me of the Paralegal School craze of the 90’s.
There isn’t just a job shortage, there is also a career option shortage, imo.
Funny this topic should come up.
Earlier this morning, I got a phone message from (insert drumroll here) an executive coach. I guess that’s a coach who only handles C-level corporate types. Why he was calling was beyond me, but I’m willing to venture the following guess:
He’s looking for clients.
And that’s why his message referenced his wanting to connect with me. I suppose that, through a connection on social networking sites, I’ll just be rocketed to the highest of highs and…
…want to hire him as my executive coach.
Now, show of hands: Who here would hire a coach? Or, maybe I should ask: Who here would admit to hiring a coach?
Methinks the answer to both questions will be the sound of crickets.
There is an interesting book titled “Bait and Switched” which is the white collar counterpart to “Nickled and Dimed”.
Both were written by the same author. In N&D the author tried to live as if she were one of the under $500 a week crowd, and she took on menial, low paying jobs and tried to get by on them.
In B&S she pretends to be a formerly self employed, middle aged white collar worker who is trying to land a FT job with bennies. Of course, she fails spectacularly. At one point she hires a coach to help her, only to realize that he’s even less employable than she is and had no clue of what he’s doing.
She of course does all the standard stuff: she networks like crazy, joins societies, attends job search support groups, etc.
In the end the only jobs she is offered are 100% commission only jobs selling insurance.
In the end the only jobs she is offered are 100% commission only jobs selling insurance.
AFLAC one of them. During the “interview” she asked if they provided health-insurance . The dude said no.
“He said he’d be lucky to make $15 an hour in the culinary world, even though the school told him he would land jobs with annual salaries of $45,000. ”
Well, if you work 60 hours a week, like a lot of chefs do (especially when you’re up-and-coming), then $15 an hour is $45,000 a year.
You mean they get paid overtime!?
The trend now is using students from these countless culinary schools as unpaid/underpaid ‘interns’ in restaurant kitchens.
I see those culinary arts school commercials all the time on the cable channels.
I have pretty much come to the conclusion that most trade schools are scams. You pay big bucks to attend and wind up in a low paying job: hair stylist, bookkeeper, medical “assistant”, etc.
The worst thing is that many CCs used to impart VocEd but no longer do so for one reason or another.
In my dad’s day, VocEd was an alternative to HS. He graduated as an electrician. Not that it did him much good on Iwo Jima…
I wonder how soon will someone sue a “real” private college for offering useless humanities degrees.
“You want fries with that?”
Yeah, VocEd was offered in high school when I was young.
Same here. And I’m still kicking myself for not taking shop.
OTOH, I did take a home ec foreign foods class. Oh, was that a blast!
It’s probably the best path for a lot of people.
Feds chase more student loan defaults
By Marty Roney, USA TODAY
The number of people who aren’t paying back their student loans is on the rise, and the government is increasingly threatening to sue them for the money.
The amount of loan defaults that the Education Department has referred to Justice Department lawyers for possible legal action has risen dramatically since before the recession and nearly doubled from 2009 to last year: There were 918 referrals in 2006; that number rose to 2,596 in 2009, and then to 5,393 last year, Education Department figures show.
Suing to collect the debt is a “last resort step,” says Jane Glickman, Education Department spokeswoman.
If the government does sue, it can go after wages, bank accounts, put liens on people’s property and hold parents responsible for their children’s debt if they co-signed the education loans.
“The most important thing to remember is we want the loans repaid,” Glickman says. “Borrowers can work on repayment plans ranging from deferments to extended grace periods. We try to do everything possible to come up with a repayment plan before taking the step of seeking a lawsuit.”
You might have been able to stiff a private lender or at least work out a settlement for a lower amount, but now that the feds have taken over this business they want the entire pound of flesh.
They can sue all they want, but no job means no money.
1 year update on my house purchase. The price I paid for it was 10% below the “Zestimate” on Zillow. The “Zestimate” has stayed above my purchase price until…today. 1 year into homeownership, the “Zestimate” (can you tell I take it with a grain of salt) is now a mere $1000 above my purchase price.
I knew going in that prices could and would fall further - my estimation was around another 15%. So far, I’m right. Now if we go another 10-15%, well…
To me another big drop is a given, the thing is, in what time frame?
Delay and pray sorta worked… the next year should be telling, IMHO.
You have little ones, yeah? How are they doing? Ripping the blinds off and whatnot?
I should add that I think we were both under contract around the same time. I offered $215 on a house listed at $250 expecting it to bottom out around $150.
I could probably dig it out of the blog here… one moment.
Lavi, inksex is awesome. Here’s was what I was thinking a year ago, Eastcoaster. It may help your frame your situation.
Comment by Muggy
2010-04-12 17:01:15
I expect the type of house I want in Pinellas to fall another 30%, but I also believe that will take 5-7 years, in which time I will have spent $108,000k on rent. Since my offer is $215 (still pending bank approval), a 30% decrease makes the house worth around $150k in 2017.
You did what you needed to do for you. It must be worth a lot not to have had that January house lust thing this year? Unless it manifested as something else!
Don’t look over your shoulder, it makes it difficult to walk straight.
Sorry, eastcoaster.
Nice that Series I bond interest is 4.6% the next six months. That’s 2.3% annually, better than CDs and no state income tax on the interest.
If you are like me, you would be buying up to the limit ($5,000 electronic and $5,000 paper).
You have to own an I bond for at least 12 months. If you redeem before 5 years you incur a 3 month interest penalty. So the 2.3% drops down to 1.72% before federal taxes on the gains when you sell in 12 months.
How many of you are getting 1.72% on 12 month CDs?
My stock buying is on automatic, but I am working overtime just to be able to buy $1,000 per month in savings bonds the next four months.
If you think the CPI-U will continue going up, it’s a good idea to focus on those things and not on precious metals.
Bumper sticker I saw today:
At least the war on the middle class is going well.
See, happy endings do happen!
I just heard radio interview with the Pakistani fellow who inadvertently live-blogged the Bin Laden operation. He talked about using his new found fame to try and create a better image for Pakistan.
I was thinking about what he could do. Fight against governmental corruption. But I think about how hard that is to do here. I’m primarily speaking of the legalized bribery and the “no quid pro quo / you scratch my back I scratch yours” relationships that exist between government and big donors. Then make that much worse and spread throughout society, high and low, and add to it roving bands of murderous fundamentalist thugs who like to bomb gathering places and assassinate politicians.
He’s got quite a job. But, I wish him well.
Realtors Are Liars