Local Market Observations
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Vacancies? “Newly released census figures show a marked increase since 2000 in vacant housing across Brevard County. Palm Bay’s housing vacancy rate climbed from 5.8 percent in 2000 to 10.4 percent last year. Most of those residences are single-family, detached homes. ‘We’re unique to some degree in that a lot of these vacancies were never occupied,’ said Lee Feldman, city manager. ‘They are investor- owned properties that came on the market as the housing bubble burst … so some are being held until the market comes back.’”
“The census counted 261,179 vacant housing units in Massachusetts last year, up from 178,409 vacant units in 2000. Daniel J. Robertson, VP of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Northboro, said increased vacancy isn’t surprising, given the foreclosure crisis of the last few years. ‘With the economy being the way it is, the vacancy rate obviously has gone up,’ he said. ‘I think it may be even higher than what they’re representing.’”
Or auctions? “Eight Rochelle Park condominiums originally listed for more than $500,000 sold for an average of about $360,000 in an auction Thursday night, auctioneer Max Spann Jr. said. The two-bedroom, three-bath condos, ranging in size from 1,600 to 2,300 square feet, were the last units unsold in the 80-unit Windsor Court complex on Rochelle Avenue. Spann said about 200 people attended the auction, and that sale prices for the units ranged from $297,000 to $533,000. The units originally had asking prices of $524,000 to $690,000.”
“The city of Avon awarded a lot in Avon Estates to the lone bidder this week, but city officials are hoping a tax break will lure more buyers to the struggling development. Monday was the deadline to submit a bid for one of five lots in Avon Estates that the city had hoped to sell to jump-start the development it purchased this year. Only one house has been built on the 307-acre property. The minimum bid was $10,000, and the lone bid was for $10,100, said Jodi Austing-Traut, city clerk-administrator.”
Lower prices? “The national housing market is at the precipice of a ‘double dip’ in falling prices because of the disappearance of federal tax incentives and large numbers of distressed homes, a financial advisory firm said in a forecast. ‘I don’t think anyone is expecting a drastic improvement in the housing market in 2011,’ Sean McSweeney of Clear Capital said. ‘2012 is in question as well.’”
“McSweeney, Clear Capital’s product management director for data and analytics, said his company defines a ‘double dip’ as housing prices slipping below March 2009 levels, which could happen if present trends continue. For that to happen within the Ontario-San Bernardino-Riverside market, prices would have to drop 8 percent from their current level, McSweeney said.”
“Nationally, home prices have fallen 11.5 percent in the nine months ending April, a rate of descent not seen since 2008, according to the firm.”
“The organizations’ data for March show year-over-year price drops in the single-digits for the Inland Empire and Los Angeles areas. The company’s data show nearly 50 percent and 34 percent of homes selling in the Inland Empire and Greater Los Angeles markets, respectively, are lender-owned properties. ‘Whenever that goes up, total prices go down,’ McSweeney said.”
everytime i see a home i am interested it’s already pending or sold.
why do they bother listing them if they are sold. i thought we had a glut.
Is it significantly cheaper to rent than to buy in your area?
Same thing here in Phoenix. Tons of houses on the market, but just try buying one of them. I started looking in January, and found a place I liked within a couple of weeks. It was a short sale / pre-foreclosure, scheduled to go to auction in a couple of weeks. Asking price was $129,000, and I offered $114. My offer should have stopped the trustee’s sale, but it didn’t, and the place went to the courthouse steps. It showed up a couple of weeks later as lender owned for the same price, so I re-submitted my offer. No response. A week later, the price dropped to $119, with my offer still on the table. My agent was trying to get an explanation out of the listing agency as to what was going on, but before we got any response the listing was cancelled. So I found another place, made an offer, and actually got it under contract. The appraisal came in $15,000 low, they refused to come down and I wasn’t about to pay over appraisal so I bailed. Last Monday the original house that I’d offered on in February came back on the market, again showing lender owned, for $119,000. So I told my agent to put in an offer (this is offer #3 on the same property, for those who are counting), which she did on Monday night. Tuesday morning she called to say that the listing agent (same agency that held the previous listings) told her they were going with another offer. I said fine, whatever, we’ll keep looking. Tuesday afternoon she called back to say that they wanted to review my offer, and would we re-submit it. I told her they already HAD it, and why do we need to send it again, but apparently this was a different agent from within the same agency and somehow they had lost the original. So we did that, giving them a deadline of Wednesday morning to respond. Thursday morning, still no response, so my agent called to find out what was up and was told we’d be getting the paperwork “soon.” Finally yesterday morning we had a contract, complete with the usual as-is we’re not going to fix anything don’t call us afterward if you hate the place addenda that accompany foreclosure sales, so I’m in escrow again. I don’t think this place will appraise for my $119 offer, but this agency is just trying to unload properties (and they have a TON of them), so I think they’ll just cut to appraisal and get rid of it. The previous contract that fell through involved some investment group that had bought 100 properties in Phoenix at auction and were trying to flip them for a 20% profit without doing anything to them–hope that all works out for them, but I doubt it. Anyway, my closing is set for June 10—I’ll believe it when it happens.
The glut in Coastal San Diego is in the high end ($500K on up). Anything priced below that gets snapped up quickly, since very few buyers actually qualify for larger loans without the availability of stated income (aka liar) loans. So the high-end stuff sits on the market indefinitely and never sells, while the low-end (under $500K) segment of the market is fairly liquid.
I believe this is similar to what happened in the SF Bay area after the tech stock bust: Low-end homes kept selling and held their value (no subprime crisis back then) while high-end homes just sat unsold.
Perhaps many of these buyers are those who waited patiently before the big runup and built up a lot of cash to be cash buyers. Cash buyers get to the front of the line in most cases and snap up the perceived cheap houses.
There are two apparent flips going on in my neighborhood of mostly 1500-2200 sq ft, 3 or 4 bedroom/1 or 2 bath, 1940s and 50s ranches and cape cods. Both are pretty serious rebuilds- the rear parts of the roofs and first floors removed, and enlarged- with the houses still thankfully looking the same from the street.
There has thus far been little if any price depreciation in the area- an inner-ring suburb near the university and downtown, despite prices being down about 20% from peak in the overall city (Lexington Ky). There are very few houses for sale in the immediate area. Most sell in the $175,000 to $275,000 price range.
I wonder if higher gas prices, and a move away from McMansions to more practical size houses, will support home prices in similar neighborhoods, as it seems to be doing here? I hate to use the ‘location’ argument, but it seems to be the case here. McMansions in the outer suburbs and exurbs, downtown condos, and houses in marginal areas seem to be bearing the brunt of the price drops- at least thus far.
That’s my story too alpha. I watch the $300k and $400k inventlry really burgeoning and wondering when someone’s going to blink. However my husband’s friend is an inspector and e-mailed him a link to a home for $325k that was spotless. $88/sq ft. The buyer is 30ish w/a toddler and a stay at home wife. The taxes are in the $12k’s per year. Young buyer sells medical supplies. Friend was depressed at how uneven this recession is. That home was only available for days before being “snatched up”.
The funny part of the story is the owner that’s leaving Syracuse is heading to Cape Cod where his taxes will be $1200-$1300. He’s joining at least one other family member already there.
“The taxes are in the $12k’s per year.”
12k in property taxes combined with evaporating economic opportunity.
Hello? Anyone home? Anyone thinking? Anyone?
North shore Long Island, New York:
Most asking prices for average middle class houses are stuck in 2006. Everybody thinks their worn out old house is worth $500k or better. It’s not even worth looking at them. High end has come down a lot. A friend recently bought a house that had started out two years ago listing for 1.7 m, he just paid $950,000.
Give an idea of taxes on these houses.
I hear Long Island property taxes are pretty insane but they also have insane public sector unions.
I have a buddy with a small but pretty 4bed/1.5 bath in Westchester just north of NYC. Property taxes are $20,000/year.
Average teachers is making $80,000 per year, almost nothing for health care and pensions you would die for.
The avergae family moves in when the kids are young and sells the day the youngest kid graduates from high school.
My father bought a house in Port Jeff Station in 1969 for $29,000(stayed only 3 years). His friend/neighbor retired and sold out in 2006 for $410k.
Looking on the web, I see that there is a house (173 Chestnut St Pt. Jefferson Station,NY) just sold for $439,000 with taxes of $12,038.
I also remember my father telling me that Veterans saved on property taxes in NY. Not sure if that is still in effect.
Local Market Story Du Juor: COLLAPSE
Tell us, is the American Dream dead?
By Lily Leung, UNION-TRIBUNE
Roger Showley, UNION-TRIBUNE
Friday, May 6, 2011 at 5:58 p.m.
Pulte Homes’ The Pines at 4S Ranch development in April.
Photo by Charlie Neuman - Union-Tribune staff
Pulte Homes’ The Pines at 4S Ranch development in April.
Americans traditionally see owning their own home as a sign of success. But with the collapse of the housing market, attitudes may be changing.
We want to hear from you - whether you own or rent, you have adult children or relatives living with you or are thinking about investments and home appreciation.
Tell us what you think of the future of homeownership in San Diego County for a story we’re doing.
Send emails to Lily Leung at lily.leung@uniontrib.com with the subject line: The American Dream. Or call her at 619-293-1719.
So, PB…are you going to give ‘em both barrels at once?
My neighborhood in Hawaii has had the same 10 houses for sale all year. Someone bought the cheapest (foreclosure whose listing was changed to say “not a foreclosure”) for $590k, replaced the roof/carpet/paint and placed it back on the market for $690k. A similar house across the street is asking $1.3 million. No joke.
The house I’m renting is much larger and nicer. It sold for less than $1 million closer to the peak. Somehow my landlords can rent it out for far less than a mortgage payment.
What’s the rent?
It’s still too much.
Depending on your assets from which you can draw and pay rent, it could still be well worth renting a $1,000,000 house.
I might want to look into renting a North Scottsdale house in a gated community at some point. I think the nature of apartment renters in my Phoenix location is turning for the worse.
I’ve seen prices in the $2900 to $10,000 per month range in North Scottsdale. My current combined rent is $1800 but I was paying $2300 back in 2002 for an apartment in Scottsdale and an apartment in New Jersey.
One of the neighborhoods that I watch in our unglamorous Texas city is a well-maintained early 20th century neighborhood not far from downtown. The neighborhood goes from real mansions all the way down. $100 per square foot is pretty good, $50 is more middle class, and foreclosures are consistently priced at $36/$37 per square foot in the area, with a few exceptions. Here’s the current mix of houses for sale in the 3/2 and above market:
–a foreclosure around $90k
–$96k (foundation issues?)
–$150k (they turned the garage into living space)
–four houses at $180k
–$192k (we offered around $130k when it was priced at $180k–a couple months later, they raised the price)
–a 2700 sq. ft. foreclosure at $205k
–a scary house at $250k, a huge (nearly 5000 sq. ft.) house at $250k (started at $380k), a 2400 sq. ft. home at $260k
–a house at $270k (bad location)
–several spectacular 4,000 sq. ft. houses in the 400s
–one mini-castle at $830k
It’s pretty chaotic. You have houses priced at $50 per square foot, $75 and $100, for no apparent reason. My neighbors are closing on the house priced at $260k–I expect to hear more about that soon. I’m assuming that these neighbors (who are very sharp) are not paying sticker price. Two other houses have dropped recently, one from $172k to $150k and one from $200k to $180k. The only house that I know to have sold recently in that neighborhood was priced at around $165k. It was on and off the market very quickly. That house was 1700 sq. ft., so it wasn’t a screaming deal on a per square foot basis, it’s just that $165k was an attractive price, so it sold. Based on the number of houses in the neighborhood priced at $180k and sitting, I suspect that $170k or $160k would sell a house pretty fast. In this neighborhood, it’s almost as if square footage isn’t that important. Or maybe there just aren’t a lot of people who want to pay $100 per square foot for a 4,000 square foot house…
I’m waiting for a convergence between our house budget (a maximum of about $200k for something amazing) and houses that I actually like. I’m getting very picky about location and condition. It’s been a long time, but we’ve got one more year before we have to leave our excellent rental.
one mini-castle at $830k
Meanwhile my officemate bought a $900k shack here in Silicon Valley to which he immediately did the following things before he could consider it habitable:
- Termite extermination
- Kitchen renovation
- Some kind of intensive cleaning to remove curry smell left by the previous owner
“unglamourous Texas city”
Fort Worth?
No observations here as I monitor REO inventory exclusively. Fannie and Freddie inventory in NY appears to be shrinking slowly over the last 4 weeks. VT inventory is static and DE inventory continues to grow.
Brooklyn, houses are starting to change hands in prime neighborhoods at prices no one can afford. It might have something to do with this.
http://www.observer.com/2011/real-estate/sign-apocalypse-brazilian-supermodel-leaves-chelsea-authors-clinton-hill-home
Are there enough people like this to fill Manhattan AND Brooklyn?
Oh, and by the way, there is nowhere to park my ‘97 Saturn Wagon because an on-location shoot for the next Spiderman movie. This in a neighborhood where 30 years ago buyers had to pay cash, because it was redlined.
Brother in Cali, oldest daughter and husband in Wichita, middle daughter’s boyfriend in East Kansas have either bought, or are looking at buying houses.
All have stable jobs (or at least as “stable” as they get anymore).
What’s driving the decision to buy now? The crime rates in “affordable” rental areas. A lot of break-ins on cars and vehicles that never gets reported, because everyone knows that nobody will ever get arrested for it anyway. The only reason anyone reports anything, is if they have an insurance claim.
(I’ve had my car broken into three times in the past 18 months. And it’s considered a “low-crime” area).
So, your choices are:
- Pay out the nose to rent a place in-town, with no riff-raff, and high security, or
- Buy a place in one of the bedroom communities.
Here is my Local Market Observation
In Jupiter, bad neighborhood but actually nicer house.
For sale today
6830 3rd St Jupiter, FL 334588
$110,000 Price Reduced
3 Bed, 2 Bath 1,884 Sq Ft
County records
Location Address: 6830 3RD ST
1. Exterior Wall 1 CB STUCCO
2. Year Built 2005
Last Sale
Jul-2005 $294,248 WARRANTY DEED TIEHEL THOMAS
In Jupiter 3 miles away decent neighborhood, house not as nice.
For sale today
1623 Seabrook Rd Jupiter, FL 33469
$265,900
4 Bed, 2 Bath 1,864 Sq Ft
County records
Location Address: 1623 SEABROOK RD
1. Exterior Wall 1 CB STUCCO
2. Year Built 1966
Last Sale
Mar-2005 $298,000 WARRANTY DEED LYEW-FONG RODERICK
A $4k difference in 05 and a $155k difference today? Somehow the less desirable neighborhoods are selling at realistic prices and the middle class neighborhoods prices are magically staying too high.