May 9, 2011

The Music Keeps Playing, Everyone Keeps Dancing

Readers suggested a topic on housing and globalization. “How house prices may be affected in the long run due to downward pressure on wages caused by offshoring. There are many who worry that inflation may cause the price of everything (including houses) to rise. But is that possible when wages don’t inflate?”

A reply, “All depends on how easy/hard credit becomes…”

Another said, “The answer to America’s woes is so obvious it amazes me nobody is talking about it. Just enforce a 20% VAT on all value addition (strong arm states into capping sales tax at say 5%). Apply a flat 20% countervailing duty to all imports. With the huge amounts of money generated, plough back say 30% to local companies manufacturing stuff here - give them incentives, free power, free training, low low cost loans.”

“If you’re looking for ideas to fix the economy, just look at how China does business. (Don’t pick up all the habits, just the good ones.)”

The Economic Times. “Buying a new home will become more expensive with banks set to hike lending rates by a quarter to half a percentage point after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised key policy and savings rates on Tuesday. For existing home loan borrowers, too, rates will go up by the same extent. ‘Although there is no asset bubble as such, asset price concerns remain as housing prices remain firm,’ said RBI governor D Subbarao.”

The Times of India. “The spectre of empty blocks stares in the face of property developers as buyers suddenly turn turtle to cheaper pastures. The state government announced the decision to increase property registration fee from one to three per cent on Saturday. The hike started showing an adverse effect on real estate business within a few hours of the announcement. Builders have started feeling the pinch of the fee hike, as most of the prospective investors, especially those from other states are now reconsidering their plan to buy here.”

“‘I have lost two customers since the hike was announced. Both, from National Capital Region (NCR), were planning to book flats in Bariatu, but have now changed their decision,’ said Singh Constructions proprietor VK Singh.”

The Sydney Morning Herald. “As we’re constantly reminded, China’s thirst for our resources now drives an enormous share of Australia’s growth. This pays off handsomely when China’s economy is expanding by nearly 10 per cent a year, as it has been recently, and markets seem convinced this stellar growth can continue for a while yet. But what happens to us if China’s economy gets the wobbles?”

“The World Bank unveiled a less rosy view on China in its latest Quarterly Update. While it said the growth outlook was positive, it also urged the government to raise interest rates to dampen inflation and a potential house price bubble. A sustained build-up in house prices was a ‘particular source of risk’ that could have ripple effects across construction - the industry buying such vast quantities of steel for which Australia supplies the raw materials.”

From Fin 24. “Hong Kong’s property bubble is partly a spillovereffect from the property bubble in some of China’s urban high-end markets. In fact, investors are vulnerable to several factors within the Chinese system that could affect global asset prices.There’s a massive amount of liquidity sloshing around China, with broad money supply expanding to 182% of GDP – a massive pool for speculation. Negative real interest rates encourage savers to seek alternatives to bank deposits.”

“The Communist Party’s dominance over the press, even independent sources, results in low trust of official information, counteracting their ability to dispel unfounded speculative manias. At the same time, heavy reliance on social networks results in an abnormal amount of inside information sharing, and thus speculative opportunities. Positive feedback loops proliferate as investors pile into the same opportunities and bid prices up.”

“The government’s interference in price setting distorts markets, creating potentially huge divergences from equilibrium. ‘New era’ thinking is endemic in China, and this euphoria often spills over into asset price valuations as speculators discount historical benchmarks.”

“The property bubble is still going strong, with investors often buying cash instead of borrowing. This has led Hong Kong based Hugo Restall to write in the Wall Street Journal that the impression could exist that leverage isn’t playing a role in the bubble.”

“But Restall writes the ‘credit machine that drives China’s investment-led economy’ creates the wealth behind the property boom. ‘Pushing loans out of the door throws off large amounts of cash to the managers and cadres involved, which they then use to buy apartments. For instance, local governments depend on the revenue from land redevelopment, and the officials then … buy property. As long as the music keeps playing, everyone keeps dancing.’”

The New York Times. “When I lived in China in the 1980s and ’90s, there was always an awkward economic imbalance between me and my Chinese friends. I had a car, and they had bicycles. I paid for our meals together because I was so much better off. Now there’s a new imbalance: Some of those same people ride around in chauffeured limousines while I get around in taxis. They take me to fancy restaurants whose prices give me headaches.”

“One Chinese friend took me to a home with private indoor basketball court and personal movie theater. It was a tribute to the stunning improvement in the country’s standard of living. But it also speaks to growing income gaps at a time when, by official figures, 320 million rural Chinese do not even have access to safe water.”

“Moreover, some of the economic boom appears attributable to a bubble, particularly in real estate. And some of the grand fortunes are linked to corruption by government officials. One friend, the son of a Politburo member, once told me that he was being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars a year by a Chinese company just to be on its board. That way, the company could persuade local governments to give it land at reduced prices.’

The Christian Science Monitor. “Even though China’s $268 billion trade surplus with the US directly accounted for an already astounding 6% of China’s GDP in 2008, it had an even larger impact through its indirect effects on personal consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation and credit expansion. It would not be unreasonable to estimate that as much as 40% of China’s economy must be attributed to its dependence on exporting to the United States.”

“Seen in this light, it should be clear why the breakdown of the American economic model of debt-fueled consumption has thrown China into a terrible crisis of its own. Whereas the United States’ problem is that it cannot make as much as it consumes, China’s problem is even worse. China can’t consume as much as it makes. Chinese factory workers do not earn enough to buy the products they make. If China can’t export those products, there is no domestic market for them. Then production must stop, and the workers lose their jobs.”

“Since the economic crisis in the United States began, China has averted disaster through an explosion of domestic credit creation. Over the last 24 months alone, China’s state-owned banks have expanded outstanding loans by 60%.”

The Star. “Selling real estate isn’t exactly brain surgery. But for Toronto broker Tony Ma, who’s done both jobs, appeasing homebuyers has at times proven to be more challenging. Ma, principal of HomeLife Landmark Realty, was a neurosurgeon in China before moving to Canada in the late ’90s to find he’d have to go through a lengthy and tedious process to practice medicine here. So he decided to become a real estate agent instead.”

“In 2010 the brokerage did roughly 3,000 deals, with a total sales volume of $1.15 billion, undergirded by strong ties to the Mainland China market. Indeed, approximately 65 per cent of Ma’s agents are Chinese and the majority of Landmark’s business comes from Chinese clients. Most are newcomers to Canada, but about 30 per cent are overseas investors.”

“‘There are 1.4 billion people in China and in the past 30 years, due to economic reforms and a policy to open to the outside world, we have achieved a lot of economic growth,’ he explains. ‘So you have many rich people there who want to grow their fortunes and they’re looking for places to invest. That’s why we see delegations from China coming to Canada to visit and buy real estate.’”

“‘The number of Chinese buyers is increasing every month,’ Ma says, noting popular developments such as One Bloor, the Hullmark Centre, East Liberty and Concord mega-projects Park Place and CityPlace. Condos in stable Toronto are a bargain for his overseas clients. ‘Our price per square foot here is at most $900,’ he says. ‘In Beijing, it’s $2,000 per square foot and in Hong Kong it’s double that.’”

The Gazette. “Canadians have a piggy bank with a lot of money in it, making the fire sale going on in the United States housing market a great temptation. Last year, the average price of a home sold in Canada in 2010 was $339,030. Back in 1995, it was just $150,720. Price appreciation has led to major increases in equity in Canadian homes, says the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals.”

“CAAMP says based on October 2010 numbers, there was $820-billion of debt on $2.9-trillion of residential property — that’s an impressive 72.8% of equity in our homes. Using the 2010 average home price, that’s about $246,000 of equity. Some of that money is going to buy U.S. property.”

“The Washington D.C.-based National Association of Realtors says Canadians are the number one foreign buyer of U.S. real estate. Canadians were responsible for 23% of all purchases by foreigners in the U.S. last year. No other country’s consumers were even close.”

“Vince Gaetano, a principal broker at Monster Mortgage, says he’s had a dozen clients in the last year take equity of out their home to buy an American property. ‘What they are doing is refinancing their existing home to access capital. They buy their U.S. home with cash. The majority try to avoid any mortgages down there,’ says Mr. Gaetano, referring to the difficulty of securing financing.”

“The cash goes a long way. Let’s say you were to refinance that average home with $246,000 in equity. You’re probably going to keep your equity at 20% because once you fall below that level you have to start paying mortgage default insurance. But even at 20% equity, and once you consider your original debt, the average Canadian homeowner could withdraw about $180,000 from their home for an investment.”

“The equity release is a scary prospect,” says the Irish-born Philip McKernan, author of South of 49 and Fire Sale: How To Buy U.S. Foreclosures. (He) now lives in Vancouver but witnessed a similar phenomenon in his homeland. ‘They called it the Celtic tiger. People released vast amount of equity from their home, including myself. I believed I had an ATM in the back of my house.’”

“He leverage the equity in a home on the west coast of Ireland to buy two properties in Finland and the next thing he knew the value of his principal residence had shrunk dramatically and his overseas properties were just holding their own. ‘My purchases were driven by greed and ego,’ says Mr. McKernan, adding it’s the same for many Canadians this time. ‘Prices came off [in Ireland] and we were left with a piece of real estate that had negative equity and we had to keep paying it off.’”




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54 Comments »

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-05-08 08:09:45

“Just enforce a 20% VAT on all value addition (strong arm states into capping sales tax at say 5%).”

Taxing value addition would reduce value added. Is that a desirable policy outcome?

“Apply a flat 20% countervailing duty to all imports. With the huge amounts of money generated, plough back say 30% to local companies manufacturing stuff here - give them incentives, free power, free training, low low cost loans.”

Higher import duties will be met by commensurately higher import duties in countries which buy our exports. A reduction in global trade flows and the general Wealth of Nations would result. Is that a desirable policy outcome? This happened during the Great Depression — ever hear of the Hawley-Smoot Tariffs?

Next…

Comment by Bill in Phoenix and Tampa
2011-05-08 08:53:36

Instead of more social engineering with the fuzzy headed economic ministries. I would like to see Friedrich Hayek principles applied.

I guess the elitists think “simple is stupid” only because it threatens their lofty positions and thick wallets.

1. Cut government spending across the board 10% per year.

2. Stop being the world cop.

3. Cut federal taxes (all the dozens of them) 5% per year.

When all categories are down to 10% of what they are today, abolish all unconstitutional spending and eliminate all taxes except tariffs.

Comment by Realtors Are Liars
2011-05-08 16:04:36

Instead of more failed ideological economic theories championed by fools, I would like to see basic accounting principles applied.

I guess the corporate elitists think “simple is stupid” only because it threatens their lofty positions and thick wallets.

1) Fully fund domestic obligations and index to inflation

2) Stop being world cop

3) Raise federal taxes 5% per year

When all categories are fully funded and the budget goes positive, abolish all unconstitutional tax cuts and eliminate all loopholes except tariffs.

Comment by Bill in Phoenix and Tampa
2011-05-08 16:34:54

Most of the “Millionaires Next Door” in Stanley and Danko’s research EARNED their wealth. You keep harping on corporations, which are composed of a small percentage of millionaires. There are plenty of people in the $5 million to $10 million net worth who made it legally and honestly.

Your people’s paradise of North Korea awaits you excreter.

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Comment by Realtors Are Liars
2011-05-08 17:46:54

And you can live in your fantasy world and think you’ll join them some day. You’re a wage slave. You were born a wage slave and you’ll die a wage slave………bile.

 
Comment by measton
2011-05-08 19:54:04

No one’s worried about people with 1-10 million. It’s the people who make that in a month or yearly.

The elite try to blend in with these people. The reality is most people in the 1-10 million are doctors lawyers middle managment and small business owners. ie many are wage earners and taxed heavily vs elite. The small busines owners many make their living off the middle class. Read the part about China’s predicament, ie workers can’t afford the goods they make. That’s where we are headed. These workers will also not purchase services and goods from most of these small business owners. The only people who will benefit froma collapse o fthe middle class are the elite who will cement power.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-05-09 08:57:22

“Your people’s paradise of North Korea awaits you excreter.”

Funny, now that we’ve had 3 decades of tax cuts for the super rich, the poor are poorer than ever, and are headed towards a North Korean standard of living (where I understand there is no income at all) . Yet when taxes were “sky high” under the Eisenhower administration we had a vibrant middle class.

“The small busines owners many make their living off the middle class.”

Correct. When the little people are broke, they “do without”. They skip scheduled car maintenance, drive on bald tires, don’t go out to eat, don’t hire carpet cleaners, don’t take vacations, don’t buy new furniture or appliances, etc., etc., etc.

 
Comment by Steve W
2011-05-09 10:10:55

How about
3) keep federal taxes the same. Capital Gains will now be taxed as ordinary income.

I’ve yet to hear a convincing argument for why somebody who makes money off capital gains should be taxed at a lower rate than somebody who makes money from doing other work.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-05-09 10:16:01

I’ve yet to hear a convincing argument for why somebody who makes money off capital gains should be taxed at a lower rate than somebody who makes money from doing other work.

Because they are very rich and powerful, and can bribe our elected leaders to give them such a sweetheat deal?

 
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2011-05-09 10:26:00

“When the little people are broke, they “do without”.”

They don’t fill their prescriptions.

They don’t buy new clothes or shoes.

They buy hair clippers and eliminate the cost of haircuts.

They don’t go to the doctor or the dentist.

They don’t take their pets to the vet (sometimes exposing their families and neighbors to the risk of rabies).

They miss rent, utility, and child support payments, spreading the poverty. If they miss too many, they are evicted or the electricity and water are turned off or they end up in jail, creating an additional burden on the rest of us.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-05-08 08:11:52

“Since the economic crisis in the United States began, China has averted disaster through an explosion of domestic credit creation. Over the last 24 months alone, China’s state-owned banks have expanded outstanding loans by 60%.”

Sounds like a great recipe for a credit bubble.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-05-08 13:03:30

There’s all kinds of evidence that, instead of houses, the Chinese are banks are handing out ‘fog a mirror” financing on commodities.

Like it or not, taxes are used by government not just for revenue generation, but as incentives/disincentives for behavior.

Huge cigarette taxes, to discourage smoking. Tax incentives for buying houses.

Putting aside the Libertarian arguments for any government intervention, I don’t think you are going to see this end anytime soon.
IMO, these incentives/disincentives need to be revised to reflect current realities.

Considering current realities, any tax policy designed to curb Wall Street speculation/trading would be a winner, as far as I’m concerned.

Any tax increases are going to hit the top 5%er/Wall Street/Banksters disproportionately anyway, Why? Because they are the only people with any income to tax.

Comment by measton
2011-05-08 20:00:08

wrong
They are going to jack up taxes on the middle and upper middle class. The middle class will pay the inflation tax and will have to cut consumption to pay it.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2011-05-09 04:28:35

X:

It has been my point that the high tax on cigs is causing a big part of the pension problems.

We are just living too long and more healthy and this was never really compensated for in the pension payout figures.

Eg: there is no reason for any kind of an early “retirement” if you are not fully retired. Otherwise you get your 1st check at 65 maybe even 70

Huge cigarette taxes, to discourage smoking. Tax incentives for buying houses.

Comment by oxide
2011-05-09 09:07:21

Don’t worry, diabetes will take the place of lung cancer. And you can’t tax excess carbs as easily as you can tax tobacco.

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Comment by Jim A
2011-05-09 10:22:37

And the level of cronyism and opacity that characterize the Chinese economy are even worse than here. I’d say that there’s a pretty good chance that their bubble ends with rather more literal bloodshed than had characterized the end of ours.

Comment by Happy2bHeard
2011-05-09 10:35:00

“I’d say that there’s a pretty good chance that their bubble ends with rather more literal bloodshed than had characterized the end of ours.”

Especially with the sheer numbers of excess young men produced as a result of the one child policy and the cultural preference for males. Men who have been spoiled all of their lives by 4 grandparents and 2 parents who will now be expected to support them. Men who have no hope of progeny of their own to support them in their old age.

I sometimes wonder if globalization was an attempt to forestall wars that China might have been tempted to start to keep these unattached men busy or reduce their numbers.

Comment by vicever
2011-05-09 15:12:21

If there were no one-child policy, there will be many millions more people in china who tries to find a job. Even today, there are not that many jobs for everyone, especially relatively higher paying one. Even so, there are many complaining that Chinese took too many jobs from American.
IMHO, there are too many peoples at least for the current capability of human being, no one species should/could multiply without check within limited environment.
We really need to reconsider any policy to encourage people having child but without following resources to educate. These are policies fostering disasters, kids without proper education have little chance to contribute to society positively, many of them will have negative effect.

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Comment by Happy2bHeard
2011-05-09 20:22:38

“We really need to reconsider any policy to encourage people having child but without following resources to educate. These are policies fostering disasters, kids without proper education have little chance to contribute to society positively, many of them will have negative effect.

I totally agree with you. I do not object to China’s one child policy. China was in desperate straits and needed to take drastic action.

The policy of limiting families to one child in a society that favors men means that there are now more men than women in that generation. This creates a pool of military age men who will not be able to find suitable mates. If China is not able to occupy these men with jobs, it might be tempted to occupy them with war. So globalization and outsourcing of American manufacturing to China, which was encouraged by our government, may have been an attempt to forestall war.

I also support abortion (and birth control) for your reasons stated above. If we are not willing to provide prenatal and infant health care, education, and opportunity for everyone, then we have no business forcing women to carry a pregnancy to term.

It irritates me to hear people clamor about the immorality of abortion, welfare queens, and personal responsibility all in the same breath. Are you being personally responsible when you put your child up for adoption because you cannot afford to raise it? Is it more responsible to attempt to raise your child in squalid conditions with little hope for a better life, while depending on state support or the charity of others?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2011-05-08 08:27:33

‘Condos in stable Toronto are a bargain for his overseas clients. ‘Our price per square foot here is at most $900,’ he says. ‘In Beijing, it’s $2,000 per square foot and in Hong Kong it’s double that.’

I’ve think I’ve seen this movie before…

Comment by GrizzlyBear
2011-05-08 09:26:29

It will be decades before this mania has run its course.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-05-08 10:32:27

“I’ve think I’ve seen this movie before…”

Wasn’t it a Japanese production?

Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-05-08 13:05:32

It’s different there.

 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2011-05-08 14:51:34

I believe it’s been dubbed in English, because what the audience hears is completely out of sinc with the actors’ lips.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2011-05-08 14:02:43

Even $900 is far too high. $900K for a 1000 sq ft condo? No way…

Comment by Dave of the North
2011-05-08 14:47:08

“CAAMP says based on October 2010 numbers, there was $820-billion of debt on $2.9-trillion of residential property — that’s an impressive 72.8% of equity in our homes. Using the 2010 average home price, that’s about $246,000 of equity. Some of that money is going to buy U.S. property.”

I have 100% equity in my home, and US property is about the last thing I would think about buying if I wanted to “liberate the equity”. Wonder how soon the articles will start about Canadians wanting to sell their US properties for what ever reason and not being able to “without giving it away”.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-05-09 08:56:25

I have 100% equity in my home, and US property is about the last thing I would think about buying if I wanted to “liberate the equity”. Wonder how soon the articles will start about Canadians wanting to sell their US properties for what ever reason and not being able to “without giving it away”.

I suspect that Dave is not the only Canadian who thinks this way. And if I may be so bold as to make the following prediction: In a few months (or years), Dave will be regaling us with the stories of his friends, coworkers, and neighbours who took a bath in American real estate.

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Comment by edgewaterjohn
2011-05-09 08:31:16

Toronto is a great city, but not $900/sq ft great.

Comment by In Colorado
2011-05-09 08:59:55

Toronto has always been super expensive. I went there on a few business trips in the late 80’s and I was stunned by the house prices. It made San Diego look downright affordable.

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Comment by oxide
2011-05-09 09:10:42

Last time I was on vacation where there was cable, I sacked out in front of HGTV Property Virgins, which is based in Toronto. Rents weren’t bad, but prices are too high. When one flamingly gay couple rejected a wishing-price condo in a desireable area, the realtor/host turned up her little nose and said that “they obviously weren’t location buyers.”

 
Comment by toast on the coast 90803
2011-05-09 17:10:26

you could have posted “couple”.Why be derogatory?
Would you have used uppity to decribe a black couple?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mugsy
2011-05-08 08:55:38

Seems that the vacation boom market is toast in lots of places including here on Cyprus: http://alturl.com/svobw

So much for vacation homes purchased with “equity”.

Comment by SDGreg
2011-05-09 08:21:29

Except:

“However, from the figures published by the Department of Lands & Surveys, it is the domestic demand for property that is faltering; foreign demand for property Island-wide is steadily increasing. Over the first quarter of 2011, total sales to foreign buyers have increased by more than 16% compared to last year – and sales are up in all areas.”

However, I think the combination of falling wages and sharply increasing travel costs will soon crush the concept of having a primary house in one country and a vacation house in another country with friends and relatives coming to visit the foreign vacation house on a regular basis.

 
 
Comment by jbunniii
2011-05-08 10:58:23

Ma, principal of HomeLife Landmark Realty, was a neurosurgeon in China before moving to Canada in the late ’90s to find he’d have to go through a lengthy and tedious process to practice medicine here. So he decided to become a real estate agent instead.

You would think he might have looked into the medical licensing requirements BEFORE moving halfway around the world.

Comment by Montana
2011-05-08 13:29:34

*I’ll cross that bridge when I come to it* lol

 
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2011-05-09 10:37:57

Maybe he was in Hong Kong and worried about the transition in 1999.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2011-05-09 18:45:26

I think the Hong Kong transition was 1997. If I recall correctly, there was a great exodus of people and capital from Hong Kong in advance of the 1997 transition. Two popular destinations for those people and capital were Toronto and Vancouver.

 
 
Comment by lucy
2011-05-10 00:21:31

I’m impressed that he has been so successful in vastly different careers in two such distant places. Even if one of them does involve selling real estate.

 
 
Comment by Bill in Phoenix and Tampa
2011-05-08 11:56:30

Regarding the first paragraph of suggested topics, it stands to reason that in the U.S. wages will continue to drift down, even with cost of gasoline and other oil based products going up. I expect an acceleration of outsourcing of U.S. jobs.

We are seeing more “shocking” cases these days where it pays to be a government employee. The 51 year old Newport Beach lifeguards able to retire on a $108,000 annual pension from the taxpayers. The outrageous salaries to the mayor and city council of one Southern California community. The $100,000 annual compensation for the average California corrections officer (prison guard).

This is one of those times when being a government employee is far more lucrative than being an employee of a private company. Until the revolution! And the public is only beginning to get riled up at the high cost of government bureaucraps.

I only see downward price pressure of houses ahead as long as outsourcing continues and as long as the federal deficit continues to grow. The U.S. is many years away from being out of the woods of danger.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-05-08 13:16:59

Housing bubbles in California led to bubbles in public sector salaries and benefits in California.

None of the worker bees out here in Flyover are getting six figure salaries, or retirement benefits. Too many Republican-controlled state legislatures.

Of course, this meant “the best and brightest” employees and managers moved to other states for better jobs as soon as they could. Which left the not so best and bright to man the government. Which, conveniently, supports the Republican dogma that only losers work for the government.

Looks more like a self-fulfilling prophecy to me.

Comment by GH
2011-05-08 14:48:36

Not sure where the best and brightest ended up. Here in San Diego government is a pretty sad state of affairs. Seems like a lot of the crooked ones showed up and stayed though.

 
Comment by 2banana
2011-05-08 18:21:40

Let’s see using your logic:

Behind door #1 - not the “best and brightest” in government, “right to work” states, a government not bankrupt and one lives within its means.

Behinds door #2 - the best and brightest go into government work, get insane salaries/benefits/pensions, iron-clad control of government through their “closed shop” public unions and bankrupted cities/counties/states

I will take door #1 ALL DAY LONG

Comment by GH
2011-05-08 22:34:14

Not only does door one provide cost effective government, but government sensitive to the needs of the citizens it serves.

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Comment by 2banana
2011-05-08 18:16:33

Insane public unions + public union controlled politicians + bankrupted cities/counties/states = ???

Comment by Happy2bHeard
2011-05-09 10:46:02

Much of this is a result not of public union pay and benefits but of declining revenues due to the popping of the housing bubble.

For local governments, no developer mitigation fees, no building permits, reduced property tax payments due to reassessments or delinquencies, reduced sales taxes. For states, reduced sales, business, and income taxes.

Public unions have recognized this and have been making concessions.

I asked you before and did not get an answer - what makes public worker pensions and benefits insane? Is there any level that you would think is reasonable?

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-05-09 09:03:21

“The 51 year old Newport Beach lifeguards able to retire on a $108,000 annual pension from the taxpayers.”

I recall that someone pointed out in a bits bucket that only the head honcho made that kind of scratch, and that most lifeguards are paid much, much less and that many are just part timers.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-05-09 09:06:26

“This is one of those times when being a government employee is far more lucrative than being an employee of a private company.”

I think that perhaps what is best about being a government employee is the relaitve job security. In my little burg they aren’t all that well paid and other than cops and firefighters they don’t get pensions either. But layoffs so far have been very, very rare.

 
 
Comment by GH
2011-05-08 14:47:10

Credit expansion must by definition be met with a more than equal and opposite contraction, since credit is a limited resource, once the markets are saturated that is the end of the game and the beginning of the contraction side, since the credit must no be repaid with interest.

 
Comment by SDGreg
2011-05-09 07:53:25

“The World Bank unveiled a less rosy view on China in its latest Quarterly Update. While it said the growth outlook was positive, it also urged the government to raise interest rates to dampen inflation and a potential house price bubble. A sustained build-up in house prices was a ‘particular source of risk’ that could have ripple effects across construction - the industry buying such vast quantities of steel for which Australia supplies the raw materials.”

“Potential house price bubble”?!

From the excellent find by combotechie in April:

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/04/chinas-property-market-and-ghost-cities.html

The amount of overbuilding is stunning, dwarfing anything in the U.S. It makes Miami look like it has a housing shortage in comparison. The air quality looked pretty horrible too.

In one of the empty cities, they showed a large shopping mall that had been largely empty for 6 years! That pre-dates the crash of the U.S. housing bubble which was first to go.

Maddening was that they are demolishing affordable housing to build millions of apartments that will sit vacant because the people cannot afford them. Also mentioned was that payment for the new units is 50 percent up front with the balance due in 3 years. With that type of payment plan, how is raising interest rates going to have much impact on prices?

A quote from a Hong Kong analyst on the vacant units, “If they bring prices down close to zero, I’m sure some people will move in.” He also mentioned that there are around 64M vacant apartments in China.

The World Bank is way late to this party.

 
Comment by doom
2011-05-09 09:30:27

People the news of Bin Laden death will be nothing like the shock we will get when we are told the great depression is back in America it is coming and is as plain as the nose on ones face I’m sorry to say?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-05-09 10:02:35

we are told the great depression is back in America it is coming and is as plain as the nose on ones face I’m sorry to say?

In my little neck of the woods, it’s been like a great depression for several years. Matter of fact, my income’s about half of what it was in 2005.

 
Comment by Left Ohio
2011-05-09 10:34:11

Great nickname, doom. The dancing with the stars crowd are getting restless but few would admit that the US’ stagflationary depression is indeed the New Normal.

 
 
Comment by cactus
2011-05-09 11:56:16

from Bloomberg

“You can’t throw 1,000 engineers at a problem that might bear fruit five years from now,” Fabbi said. “Huawei can.”

Comment by oxide
2011-05-09 12:47:59

You got that right. No private sector CEO would pay 1000 engineers for six months, much less five years. And the public sector can’t spend a penny at all without middle and old-aged white folks gathering on the front lawn and waving misspelled signs.

 
 
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