Washington Sales Fall, Inventory Grows 20%
The Washington realtors have April numbers out. “Home sales in western Washington dropped 8.6 percent in April from a year ago, as prices posted yet another month of double-digit growth, according to the latest figures from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.”
“‘I assure you we would have more sales if we had more inventory,’ proclaimed Mike Skahen, a board member of the Northwest MLS in reaction to April results. Just-released figures show pending sales slipped about 9 percent last month compared to a year ago.”
“The inventory picture brightened in several areas last month. Members added 12,594 new listings to inventory, improving on the year-ago total of 12,116, and falling just shy of the March figure of 12,639.”
“With those additions, the inventory at month end totaled 25,215 listings, a jump of almost 21 percent from the same month a year ago. Only three counties, King, Cowlitz and Grant, reported having fewer listings than 12 months ago, with only a slight drop in all three areas.”
“Six counties had inventory gains of 25 percent of more, led by Grays Harbor (up 63.4 percent). Other counties with sizable increases were Thurston (up 60.9 percent), Kitsap (up 35.2 percent), Pierce (up 29.2 percent), Island (up 26.6 percent) and Kittitas (up 25 percent).”
“Despite having more choices in some areas, would-be homebuyers ’should not foot drag right now,’ advises Dick Beeson, a broker in Tacoma. Noting a pause in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, he urges buyers to ‘make a move while the movin’ is good.’ He also cautions sellers to take the time and effort to price their property correctly, emphasizing, ‘They stand head and shoulders above the hopefuls who overprice.’”
“‘I assure you we would have more sales if we had more inventory,’ proclaimed Mike Skahen, a board member of the Northwest MLS”
Ah, yes. He’s quoting the economic law that says that a supply shift ALWAYS leads to a corresponding demand shift.
Right, except he missed the fact that in this case, where the supply shift will result in falling prices, demand will shift down.
is this the equivalent of supply side economics in real estate?
“Despite having more choices in some areas, would-be homebuyers ’should not foot drag right now,’ advises Dick Beeson, a broker in Tacoma. Noting a pause in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, he urges buyers to ‘make a move while the movin’ is good.’
Ok, I can’t help it…what a jackass. What a self-serving, ignorant, lying jackass.
“would-be homebuyers ’should not foot drag right now,’ advises Dick Beeson, a broker in Tacoma. Noting a pause in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, he urges buyers to ‘make a move while the movin’ is good.’”
I think this is the first time I’ve seen this tactic used since BB’s first mention of the possible “pause.” You’ve got to hand it to Dick Beeson, he’s inventive with his sales pitch. Maybe he should have been the new press secretary!
LOL! Really, what more can you do at this point than just sit back and laugh. “Go out and buy now, inventory has only doubled and it won’t last long at these low low prices!”
“The inventory picture brightened in several areas last month. Members added 12,594 new listings to inventory, improving on the year-ago total of 12,116, and falling just shy of the March figure of 12,639. The new listings included 10,740 single family homes and 1,854 condominiums.
With those additions, the inventory at month end totaled 25,215 listings, a jump of almost 21 percent from the same month a year ago.”
What kind of weasle language is this? “Any inventory increase is a good inventory increase,” or something of that nature?
“‘I assure you we would have more sales if we had more inventory,’ proclaimed Mike Skahen,”
If inventory is up by 21 percent from last April, then I am wondering exactly what level of higher inventory Mike Skahen is hoping to see? Watch out what you wish for, Mike, because if inventory starts piling up more quickly and prices fall, you will see even less sales than the current level.
I think he is saying that if there was more inventory in King county there would have been more sales. King county is the BIG enchilada out here (i.e. the Seattle area), and there is no question that this market is still very tight. He could be right… If there were more places for sale in King county there might well have been some additional sales.
Be careful what you wish for though… With too much inventory, sales start going down.
The King County / Seattle market is indeed tight, but I think it’s just lagging other more expensive markets, e.g. in CA.
There were a lot of sales of SFHs and Condos to out-of-state investors, esp. from CA, who have been cashing out or leveraging the price increases in their own markets — Seattle and Portland seem “cheap” to them. This money is about to dry up, however.
I don’t think things will crash too hard here, as the tech industry is seemingly rebounding. But, I don’t think it would be unrealistic to see some $400K houses sell for less than $300K when all is said and done.
Doubleplusgood newspeak.
Actually that quote “I assure you we would have more sales if we had more inventory” is demonstrably false. As I pointed out multiple times, sales are actually decreasing, while inventory is slowly creeping up. But don’t expect the “real estate professionals” to admit it.
You can always find Tim’s Seattle blog in the sidebar here. Thanks for dropping by Tim!
Speaking of inventory pile-ups, SD’s ziprealty today shows 19,839 homes. Another good pop like the one on Cinco de Mayo (200+ homes added just last Friday) would put us over 20K (maybe for the first time ever???).
Again, I HAVE to say this…they are a pack of lying jackassweaselferret beings. This is making me angry. What kind of jackassness overtakes a person to write such gibberish like “we would have more sales with more inventory”????
Freaks of nature!
I had a pet ferret once. I am bruised that ‘ferret’ and ‘real estate agent’ might be consider somehow equal. Ferrets are far superior. Just ask any jackass or weasel.
Catherine-
thankyou for the support. I am getting very angry myself as I have to witness this crap on a daily basis.
Last week after the 20/20 housing market demolition show, the local station 11 PM news hopped right to it with a huge segment on how Seattle RE is HOT! RED HOT!! It was one blatant lie after another.
I don’t care about people pointing out strengths if they’re incined to do so, but I do draw the line at outright lying.
Did this happen in any other markets (ie. serious damage control attempt) after that 20/20 show?
As if HOT! RED HOT! is a good thing… Let’s see, property taxes going up, young couples priced out of the market, people HELOC-ing themselves up to their eyeballs, and buyers committing financial suicide with toxic loans. Hell is red-hot, too, but that’s not a good thing for those who live there.
John in VA ….Boy you hit it on the nose .
the dark side is strong w/ this one.
let the hate flow.
wtf? It’s not hate. It’s calling a jackass a jackass. There’s nothing in that article that relates to the reality of the dramatic market shift. I attribute that to jackass fever. It’s a fast acting fever that is spreading rapidly through the rank and file of the NAR. Lying as a form of self-preservation. It’s not even opinion anymore. It’s distortion of flat-out facts.
Jackass Fever - sunds like a rock song that needs to be updated. Rainman???
“sunds” = “sounds”
And I just bought a miniature donkey a.k.a. a mini jackass. Please do not insult my new pet!
sorry! I’m referring to the human sub-species…not those adorable donkeys! They have no interest in real estate!
Actually they love real estate. The wood siding is just sooooo tasty!
Now you see what we’re up against here. These fools in WA just refuse to let go. Any way they can think of to twist facts around, whether it makes sense or not, they’ll do it.
In Seattle, inventory’s creeping up as home sales slow. But if we had more on the market, we’d be seeling a lot more houses. ??!!!
The only reason a house doesn’t sell in Seattle is because it’s “overpriced”. But everything gets bidded up here and flies off the shelves. ???!!!
Lenders in town are collapsing everywhere. But the market here is healthy??!!!
Lawrence Yun wishes he could buy a house in Seattle, because the markets so strong that it’ll appreciate 30-40%. But I guess the NAR doesn’t pay their chief economists enough money to buy a home in Seattle???!!!
(Too bad Mr. Yun’s missing out on all that “in the bag” appreciation. He actually said those things last winter in an interview that was run over and over again on CNN Headline News for about 3 weeks, daily).
The inventory is Seattle was actually down 1% YOY in April…..
That report was talking about all of Western Washington…..the market looks much tighter when you look at what is going on in Seattle and King County.
‘m
Hey Meshugy, here is a “reduced” right in your beloved Ballard neighborhood…
http://seattle.craigslist.org/rfs/158011998.html
You got it Dukes. Last I checked, 1/3 of the SFH in Ballard were “reduced”.
HOT!!! HOT!!! HOT!!!
But, but, the market here is sizzling.The Seattle Times says so!
We need serious intervention up here.
I could barely get through it…
Well that settles it then right? No bubble in Seattle. Check. Oh give me a break! Pointing to a few high end sales that have probably been in the works for months finally get some earnest money and all of a sudden the whole bubble issue is put to rest? This is just insulting. It’s truly a test of the power of the media. In the 90’s they were making or breaking IPO’s (stocks) in the market, but we’re all a little wiser this go round. The media can’t stop this bubble from bursting (try as they might)!
Down the road here in Portland I’m beginning to see the first signs that the RE market is tired here. Things aren’t selling at all so far this spring. Some FSBO’s have gone with agents. Biggest sign is a house around the corner put up a sign a couple of months ago. Only 840K was needed to get their little slice of heaven. Then it was ‘Price Reduced’! To 834K. What an insult. Then yesterday, my wife told me it was reduced to 750K. Reality bites!
audet,
God love you! For the longest time I’ve maintained that Portland is a bubble. In fact we’re one of the oldest bubbles in the country. Our insanity started in the late 90’s b/c in truth we were undervalued. Those days are long gone. We lead the nation in unemployment for most if not all of the recession and yet RE values climbed steadily. We were recently rated the 14th most over priced mkt. in the country. Immediately after all the other bubble areas that get so much press. There will be plenty of pain to go around here and if and when there is a recovery will be the last to get that too!
Friends of mine here in Portland, put their Pearl district loft on the market in mid-April for $725k, the same price similiar ones in their building had gone for over the winter. They recieved no calls. So they dropped the price to $675 and got a low ball offer for $640k and sold it for $660. Also I have been monitering the RMLS since January. For most of the winter inventory in the greater Portland area has hovered around 7100. In April it suddenly popped up to 7800 and now we are at the 8300 range. Lots of signs things are softening up here.
If anyone is interested, there was an interesting piece today on NPR’s To the Point. The Guests were David Learah, Michael Hudson,Tom Donlan, and Andrew Laperriere. Here’s a link to listen to it.
Warning: It was a long segment 50 mins or so, and takes a while to load.
http://www.kcrw.com/cgi-bin/db/kcrw.pl?show_code=tp&air_date=5/9/06&tmplt_type=show
Nevermind, it’s loading quickly now.
This is the first time I’ve heard Lereah admit that most of California buyers in the last couple of years (who did IO/ARM) will have problems that will result in foreclosures. Since that represents the majority of buyers in the last 2-3 years, that’s quite a lot of foreclosures coming up in the next couple years…or sooner.
You can scroll ahead to 27:20 to get Learah’s predictions for this year:
Nationwide:
-6.5% for 2006 compared to 2005 total sales
YOY increases in home values of 5.5% 2005 - 2006 (dropping from 13%)
Let’s mark his words. If anyone can find a prediction in writing from 6 months ago, I’d love to see it. Then we get someone to grill him the next time he shows up on radio or in print . . .
Wasn’t it just a couple of months ago Learah’s was saying 15% yoy increase in home price value prediction for this year ?Than I think he said that there would be a slow down ,but than it would shoot up next year . Anyway , I object to this guy making any kind of predictions . I object to realtors making predictions to the general public .
I get the feeling that trying to pin this guy down is like herding cats . . . each time you say “didn’t you say X” he re-characterizes his comments, hedges, obfuscates, and then says “but the fundementals are sound”.
David, shut the F#@K up. Not only do you not have a shred of credibility, but you have no credentials, training or experience that leads us to believe a word you say. You are a shill for your industry. A lobbyist. You are paid to STAY ON MESSAGE. You are the high prophet of the Church of Craptacular & Scrofulous Shills.
Please . . . someone . . . anyone in a position of public announcer, columnist, journalist, interviewer . . . please do your job, and challenge this morally bankrupt lobbyist. Stop calling him an “expert”. Stop digging 1″ below the surface. They are called “follow-up questions”. Part of your job is to ask them. You might need to do something called “research”. I have a dictionary I can lend you if any of these words are too large or have to many syllables. Please.
Rant over.
Reminds me of Henry Blodget, Mary Meeker, and Jack Grubman, et al in 2000.
There is a blog called “Lereah Watch” or something like that.
Anybody know the address? That blog probably has quotes and sources.
The real whore is just out for his commission which is not much lower if the price is $10k’s lower. He wants quanitity of sales and looks out only for himself.
Idiots are still over bidding. The buyers really think their realtor works for them. So the realtors are still pumping the prices. Buyers need to be more educated and smarter on offering lowered bids.
SOME people are overbidding but here arethe facts:
Of 57 properties that I looked up in Feb/March from sales in one neighborhood:
40 sold below Asking
9 sold at Asking
8 were bidded up (and by paltry amounts I might add- nothing like what was happening in the past)
So WHY would you focus on those 8 properties and COMPLETELY IGNORE the other 49?
Something is seriously wrong here.
bid ups” usually are sales w subsidies for closing costs etc……….
With those additions, the inventory at month end totaled 25,215 listings, a jump of almost 21 percent from the same month a year ago.
Kirkland, Wash.-based Northwest Multiple Listing Service covers most of western Washington and encompasses more than 2,000 companies with approximately 26,000 sales associates.
So there is approximately one broker for every listing in the area now…
Holy crap, you’re right.
that’s really wild- how does that work? Someting’s wrong, no?
Well, who knows how many of these brokers are just some dude that got his license to sell his mom’s place..still…
From the PDF file available on the MLS site; pending sales in King County are down 10%, Snohomish is down 3.74% and Pierce is down 12%.
Thanks for this focus on WA Ben.
I really wish Whatcom county (Bellingham) had stats for ‘05 but it looks like they just started keeping them this year. ‘05 is always blank in the charts. I’m sure the YOY’s would be interesting as heck- especially the inventories.
“‘I assure you we would have more sales if we had more inventory,’ proclaimed Mike Skahen, a board member of the Northwest MLS in reaction to April results. Just-released figures show pending sales slipped about 9 percent last month compared to a year ago.”
You know I do my fair share of realtor protection. Because at the end of the day there is a lot of myth, misinformation, and half truths about Realtors on this blog.
But this statement above by this guy made even me do a double take. How in the hell does that statement make any sense. I have to say unbelievable. Truly unbelievable. It’s like he never picks up a paper, surf’s the net, or watches T.V.. I’m baffled. I’ll resume Realtor protection at a later time.
Mrincomestream… We meet again …Go back to the prior posts of about three months worth and you will see nothing but insulting lying spin by realtors in the news . Classic sales pitch spin is to create “urgency”, like ,”get in before the interest rates go up “,or ” its a good time to buy, its a buyers market “.
You know as well as I do that they have these rah rah sales meeting in real estate offices discussing the lastest sale pitch that works. The problem with this market is it has serious problems in which alot of people are going to get hurt . A falling market is hard on everyone including realtors . My 2 cents , thought I would post it right behind you .
Wiz, I haven’t worked a true Residential shop in years. And when I did
I was hustling R.E.O.’s from Ventura to San Diego county I had very little time for sales meetings. But the few meeting I did attend I can honestly say that I have never heard a Manager use those techniques to create urgency. Mostly contract issues, agency discussions, and market/office updates. In commercial you won’t get very far using candy ass techniques like that.
It’s too bad that Western Washington is infected with the same speculative virus that has hit the rest of the country. They will experience the same miserable downfall that Boston, Florida, and DC are now feeling, just a year or two later (Seattle and Portland were two of the last coastal cities to join the insanity). Boston is now undergoing a structural and demographic change that will affect it for years to come — young professionals leaving the area in search of greener pastures. Along with them will go the prospects for an economic revival anytime soon. The same phenomenon will eventually strike areas like Seattle and the SF Bay Area. At some point, a majority of people begin to decide the privelege of living in a certain geography is not worth suffering near-poverty conditions and crushing debt.
My father-in-law is a builder in Washington state and he’s been bankrupted several times in the past 30 years. He thinks that this time it’s different. Memories are short.
John in VA …..Washington State is my home state , now I live in California . I really agree with you . Your touching on the points that have made this bubble so evil and disruptive in so many ways . Are there any States that are going to be spared ?
It’s hard to say. This is so widespread that I believe that every state will be adversely affected to some degree — some by falling RE prices, foreclosures, and bankruptcies; and others just by the general economic fallout.
i’m in santa rosa california,and THIS WEEK,our local paper described the las vegas market as “one of the hottest in the usa” and the sf paper had a nice column about a possible bubble not hurting too many people who put 20% down and got 30 year fixed loans….the average downpayment in ca is 2% and close to 75% of loans are arms,which wasn’t mentioned in the column…..
my sis lives in San Carlos and I visit there often. This past wknd, while there, I noted so many “for sale” signs…never have seen that many in years. I saw a few that were not even your typical realtor signs…they were FSBO, hand-made, crude cardboard ones that included the words…”make an offer”. San Carlos. Land of the $1.5M quaint 950 sq. ft bungalow.
So, there’s still quite the disconnect between what the media chooses to print and what’s going on in the ‘hood.
Catherine,
God that is so funny! What are these people thinking? A million dollar + home with a cardboard sign? You’re kidding right? Oh this is too good. In Oregon we see those but they’re usually on single wides that hunters buy to put up when their land when last one burned down! You know like a “repo” sitting behind a chain link fence of a machine shop next to the cardboard hand made sign that says “Tresspassers wil be shot”. That is so funny!
This is true, I received an email from a Realtor about a year ago signaling there was a problem with the Vegas market. Which prompted me to send an email to a few select clients advising them to sell or if they have to buy do it with long term financing. Because if the Vegas market is taking a dump the LA market is sure to follow and sure enough it is happening. Vegas has been on the downslope for awhile Im surprised your local paper put that out.
The market here in Snohomish county is still going pretty strong, but I think I see signs that it is slowing. The people we rent from bought the house across the street for 315K at the end of January. Now the people in the house next to us are trying to sell their house but they have it priced at 325K even though it is 200 sq ft smaller than the other house and it only has a 2 car garage instead of 3. I guess they think the market is going up every month. But I checked and there are 2 builders in 2 nearby locations who are offering new houses 200 sq ft larger than our neighbor’s for 325K, so I will be surprised if the neighbor can sell without lowering his price, which I don’t think he will want to do because he is already in the process of or has already bought another house.
I have tried talking with friend’s here, and most of them just don’t believe that prices will drop at all. They say things like “This is the only part of the country that isn’t dropping.” which is pretty much true at the moment, but they say it as if the fact that it isn’t dropping now was proof that it will never drop.
I want to note that I figured out that the people who bought the house across the street for $315k will only be losing slightly under $400 a month after property taxes, insurance and interest, not counting any maintenance cost, when they find renters. But they have been trying to find renters for over 3 months and the house is still vacant and they still have to keep coming over (about a half hour drive each way)to do the yard mainenance.
What an investment!!!
Why should I feel offended when these knuckleheads try to defend the bubble here in the NW? Why? It’s been tried everywhere else to absolutely no avail. It’s just finally our turn in the barrel. God I’m loving it!
DC is usually last to fall so PNW is just buying time
“Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?”
“Despite having more choices in some areas, would-be homebuyers ’should not foot drag right now,’ advises Dick Beeson, a broker in Tacoma. Noting a pause in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, he urges buyers to ‘make a move while the movin’ is good.’ He also cautions sellers to take the time and effort to price their property correctly, emphasizing, ‘They stand head and shoulders above the hopefuls who overprice.’”
What pause? Have they now gone beyond spin to outright lies?
Yes. It HAS gone from spin to outright lies. Sickening to watch here in the PNW.
Seattle is over-heated with VC funny-money right now. Give it time. We’ve got to bust Web 2.0 bubble as well.