Unlike Japan, which sees housing at perhaps the lowest level to date more than two decades after their real estate bubble collapsed, this fellow suggests U.S. housing will retake their 2006 bubble peak price levels by ten years hence.
How the logic of this prediction works is a mystery, although it seems to involve a fair amount of, “In Fed We Trust.” My own crystal ball is far too cloudy to foretell whether this outlandish-seeming scenario is whatsoever plausible.
It is nearly five years since the peak of the housing bubble, and that highly leveraged sector, with its $11 trillion in residential mortgage debt, continues to struggle. Home values just posted their biggest quarterly decline since late 2008, largely due to a steady stream of foreclosures.
But if we consider that the housing bubble inflated from roughly 1999 to 2006, that made seven fat years. An ancient authority would suggest that seven lean years should follow. That would mean two more lean years to go—not a bad prediction.
…
We now have the Bernanke Gamble to foster high prices for debt and equity securities, thus a positive wealth effect to offset the negative wealth effect of the huge losses in real estate and real-estate debt. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s gamble is being wagered on a long period of zero short-term interest rates and by the remarkable expansion of the Fed’s own balance sheet, including the purchase of about $1 trillion in mortgage debt—making the Fed, in a sense, the largest savings and loan in the world.
Will it work? Perhaps. But large unrealized losses still need to be realized and swallowed. We will continue to move sluggishly through an extended period of negotiating how these losses will be distributed. Who will take the hit? Delinquent borrowers, banks, investors (domestic and foreign), the government and government-sponsored entities, and the strapped deposit insurance fund are all involved in these contentious negotiations.
The negotiations also involve the role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which although hopelessly insolvent and having their losses paid for by taxpayers, are nonetheless funding the majority of new mortgage loans with government-backed debt. Their supporters want to continue having them fund mortgages as big as $729,750 to help prop up high-end housing prices. Opponents like me point out that this prevents the necessary return of private capital to mortgage finance.
As the debt hangover works its way through the system, the outlook is for housing to continue along an extended rocky and bumpy bottom, generally moving sideways in nominal terms. Since we will have an overall inflationary regime, real house prices will be falling. After working through the concluding lean years, housing prices can reasonably be expected to regain their long-term trend of increasing a little over 3% per year in nominal terms.
This would take them back to their highs in 10 years or so. If this happens, it will be far better than the performance of Nasdaq stocks, which a decade later have never even remotely approached their bubble high.
Mr. Pollock is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He was president and CEO of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago, 1991-2004.
DC area house that bubbled up to Zestimate $500K and dropped to $340K.
Ten 3% increases gave me ~$456K.
Peak would re-occur in ~14 years, not 10.
Nicer flyover $400K house that dropped to $249K (more typical):
Peak would re-occur after 18 years, not 10.
This is assuming that prices will “continue along an extended rocky and bumpy bottom,” which is TOTAL BS. We are already seeing banks unwilling to lend because “there is no secondary market” to sell to (ie fannie freddie). We already know that without that secondary market, “private capital” will only “return to mortgage finance” if they have income verification and 20% down. If buyers need to bring 20% in cold hard cash, prices will NOT “generally move sideways.” They will go over the dropoff.
“After working through the concluding lean years,” that $400K house will probably sell for $210K. Peak will be achieved in 23 years, not 10.
I thought inflation was covered by “nominal terms.”
I still think house prices are going to drop with or without inflation, especially if banks want a down payment. Down payments are saved up from wages, and wages are NOT inflating.
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Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-05-12 09:23:26
Down payments are saved up from wages, and wages are NOT inflating.
Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner!
Comment by measton
2011-05-12 10:24:08
If inflation really get’s going you can bet interest rates are going to go up and you can bet that will not have a positive effect on housing.
Here is a bold forecast: There will be no shortage of foreclosure homes for sale in the U.S. over the next 5-10 years. And at least one monopolistic owner of REO homes, Fannie Mae, admits it delays the rate at which it releases them to the market in order to reduce its losses. This should keep bubble deflation going for years, folks, at least on nominal, if not real, terms.
Foreclosure Delays Plague Housing Recovery
Published: Thursday, 12 May 2011 | 12:30 AM ET
By: Diana Olick
CNBC Real Estate Reporter
…
There are currently 3.7 million loans that are 90 days or more delinquent, according to RealtyTrac’s Rick Sharga. Nationwide, completed foreclosures (REOs) took an average of 400 days from initial default notice to REO in the first quarter of this year. That’s up from 340 days a year ago and more than double the 151 days in 2007. At the current rate, it would take three to four years to move those loans through the foreclosure process. In some states, the picture is far worse.
In New York and New Jersey, it takes more than 900 days to get through the foreclosure process from start to finish, in Florida 619 days, and in California 330 days, according to RealtyTrac.
“Part of it is exacerbated by robo signing,” says Sharga, speaking of the paperwork scandal at major servicers that was uncovered last Fall. “We really believe that a big part of it is simply market saturation. We’re simply not seeing enough buying activity taking place to dispose of the properties the banks have already repossessed. If you’re a lender sitting on tens of thousands of properties you already can’t sell, why on earth would you be motivated to accelerate foreclosure proceedings on another 3.7 million homes?”
The big banks dispute this charge, claiming they are moving the process along as quickly as possible to mitigate their own losses. Once they get to REO, as we noted in yesterday’s blog, they try to sell them as quickly as possible.
“We don’t hold [REOs] to have any market placement or timing. We need to clear inventory, so as soon as we go through that process, the property is marketed as an REO and we move it out,” Doug Jones of Bank of America told an audience of Realtors Tuesday at a conference.
But according to Sharga’s data, there are 900,000 bank-owned properties, and less than 30 percent of those are available for sale. Fannie Mae, which owns more than 153,000 foreclosed properties, according to its latest earnings statement, claims it is aggressively pushing these properties through the pipeline and out onto the housing market.
“We’ve created one of the largest REO operations in the country,” Fannie Mae CEO Mike Williams told me in a rare interview. “We always try to strike the right balance between moving properties, which reduces losses but making sure we’re not moving them in a way that going to either hurt communities or hurt our bottom line. So we have a team that’s very focused on those set of activities and we measure those results on a daily, weekly and monthly basis.”
…
Yeah, we’ve come a long way from the “there is no shadow inventory” days. Yesterday I posted an article with a California RE analyst reporting on the Baltimore shadow inventory like it was a regular market statistic.
‘we’re not moving them in a way that going to either hurt communities or hurt our bottom line. So we have a team that’s very focused on those set of activities’
That’s a game the MSM seems to regularly play — i.e. they suddenly start reporting on something which has long remained hidden from view as though it was always reported that way, rather than offering any acknowledgment of the sea change in perspective that just occurred.
You can see the real data in the 2010 Census of Population. Communties all over the country are protesting the number of vacant units the Bureau said it found.
Typically, vacancy rates are counted based on vacant for sale and/or vacant for rent. Although the vacancy rate is way based on those measures, that isn’t the real story.
There are lots of vacant units that are neither for sale or rent. Some are second homes, whose ower is elsewhere on the census weeks. But the real growth is in “other” vacant units. Such as those held off the market or in need of rehabilitation.
Here is just one example, from the Press Telegram.
“New census data released publicly today (May 5) show the housing vacancy rate in Massachusetts climbed to 9.3 percent over the last decade. In 2000, the rate was 6.8 percent, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The census counted 261,179 vacant housing units in Massachusetts last year, up from 178,409 vacant units in 2000.”
The for sale and for rent inventory didn’t go up that much, and neither did the second homes people intend to keep as such. And Mass. has one of the lowest foreclosure/overbuilding problems in the U.S. It must be much worse elsewhere.
The big banks dispute this charge, claiming they are moving the process along as quickly as possible to mitigate their own losses.
And the banks are lying. Even the local, privately held banks are lying. For whatever reason (sheer volume, market manipulation), defaulted dumps sit and sit.
If they recognixe their losses now, then current senior management might be in the slightest bit of danger of not meeting the objectives that automatically get them their maximum bonuses. If that happened, they would have to rely on the board to decide they deserve the full amount despite not earning it automatically based on results. That might result in getting ribbed at the country club or in a bar.
And that would hurt their feelings.
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Comment by Steamed Bean
2011-05-12 09:46:08
If they recognize their losses now they would be insolvent. That is the story, period. This is about keeping your job and base pay. The bankers know losses will be much larger in the future, as a more deteriorated asset increases loss severity, but they don’t care. Extend and pretend is about the entities very survival and the jobs associated with it. Management wants to clip coupon for as long as possible and hopes that a recovery eventually saves the day. That option is worth more alive than dead and they will extend as long as they are allowed. The FDIC and FASB gave them a very big leash in 2009.
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-05-12 10:06:14
If they recognize their losses now they would be insolvent. That is the story, period. This is about keeping your job and base pay. The bankers know losses will be much larger in the future, as a more deteriorated asset increases loss severity, but they don’t care.
William K. Black, author of The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One, made a similar point in a recent Huffington Post article.
In essence, he’s saying that the banks are taking their sweet ole time on the foreclosures because that buys them time for more important things. Like continuing to loot the banks for their personal gain. That’s what control fraudsters do. And Black is quite the authority on control fraud.
Maybe. Whatever. Based on my observations, they are not expediting or finalizing disposition of inventory.
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Comment by Steamed Bean
2011-05-12 11:34:57
You are correct, they are not expediting disposition of assets. And you will be very disappointed if you are expecting that situation to change any time soon.
Comment by Realtors Are Liars
2011-05-12 11:53:37
Well if you have some secret inside information, maybe you’d do well by informing us.
Comment by Steamed Bean
2011-05-12 12:59:45
Sorry, no secret inside info. It just seems logical that current management won’t prematurely pull the plug. What incentive does current management have to end the charade, and their paychecks, if government regulators and accounting standards board allow them to issue misleading/fraudulent financial statements in the hopes that they will pull out of the death spiral some day. Management knows they are toast now and it doesn’t matter if they are blacker toast in 5 years. And who knows, maybe the market recovers or they can earn enough from a steep yield curve and other business lines to afford to take more losses in the future.
Steamed Bean IS giving you the inside information.
Remember, the Level 3 assets were never really made to conform to mark-to-market. There was and still is a reason for that. Because they would be insolvent. Worse than bankrupt.
They are working to realize their losses over a longer period of time, as to not fail.
The FDIC is letting them do this because the FDIC has no money left to take over banks (take a look at the FDIC accounting on their website–they are out of money). Last I checked, the FDIC cash reserve had gone from $50B pre-crash to $10B, with approximately $18B reserved for failing institutions for a balance of negative $8B.
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Comment by Awaiting
2011-05-12 13:35:12
Let me chime in a minute. I sent a letter to BOA, explaining we are CASH, our housing criteria, and we are ready to buy, and got NO response. I’ve done this 5 times in the past 2 yrs.
If they never put some of these back on the market and only let them deteriorate to the point of being uninhabitable wouldn’t that only help the banks? Especially since the taxpayer backs all their losses?
In the frothier locales I sometimes wonder if this is their intention.
There is a fine balance. They can use profit/loss tax write-offs for many of them, then sell them to flippers who will shoulder the entire cost for rehab.
“If you’re a lender sitting on tens of thousands of property you already can’t sell, why on earth would you be motivated to accelerate foreclosure proceedings on another 3.7 million homes?”
And if you did accelerate foreclosure proceedings on another 3.7 million homes then you would have another 3.7 million homes sitting vacant and ready to deteriorate due to vandals and the elements, but if you can delay foreclosure on these 3.7 million homes and somehow fool the occupants into believing that they somehow still own these 3.7 million homes or have a chance of somehow owning these 3.7 million homes then they they will stay in these 3.7 million homes and take care of them as if these 3.7 million homes belonged to them.
Squatters think they are pulling one over on the banks, but the banks are getting what they want from the squatters and will continue to get what they want right up to the very day they have the squatters and their belonging cast out into the street.
So it’s a win-win! Until the banks win and the FB moves on.
Knowing this unknowable known, would it be a bank-able plan to think that Bofa will delay wife’s foreclosure yet again (in your infinite wisdom) or proceed with the 50 others on a single August day?
Lots of units available in our hood, not selling at favorable prices, if at all. Is the bank really ready for us to leave and take over the carrying costs knowing it will have to unload it for half the mortgage amt(places going for 150k, owing 300k)
Trying to figure out the best exit strategy for us in this dine and dash scenerio, albeit a “legal” one; with us at the buffet/trough.
As long as the banks are in control then they can do as they please. If it pleases them to have you stay they you will get to stay. The day they decide you should go is the day you get tossed into the street.
But …if you can can somehow convince them that it is in their best interest for you to stay they stay is what they will allow you to do.
Put on a banker’s hat and think of your situation from the banker’s point of view and maybe you will be able to come up with some ideas.
Remember: Banks have thousands of houses that have mortgages that are underwater. This puts them is a very weak position. Their weakness can become your strength if you can somehow convince them that it is better for them for you to say than it is for you to leave.
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Comment by combotechie
2011-05-12 06:04:42
Put another way, if the banks are going to foreclose on thousands of homes then they are going to do so a few at a time. Your task is to somehow arrange it so that your home is among the last to be foreclosed on.
Comment by mikeinbend
2011-05-12 06:11:41
Thank you. May the fleas of 1000 camels occupy your tent! We are not too screwed; but like our present home (for…..free?) and moving later than sooner would suit us just fine.
Not sure what a better strategy would be, to stay current on the HOAs or to rack up that bill in order to let the bank pay more to clear the lien when it repos.
Appreciate the reply, better than GTFO! which I understand will happen; but you seem to get that we are doing the bank a favor by keeping the place up; they are doing us a bigger favor by extending the auction date multiple times from 11-15-10 to late Aug 11. And you got me thinking, which is never a good thing
Comment by combotechie
2011-05-12 06:43:15
“… but you seem to get that we are doing the bank a favor by keeping the place up …”
Well, you are, arent’ you? Is the bank better off if you stay and keep the place up rather than moving out and leaving it vacant?
Keeping the place up benifits whomever it is that owns the property. If you own the property then you benifit. If the banks owns the property then the bank benifits.
Comment by Montana
2011-05-12 10:01:28
Hmmm. Been watching the continual postponement of F/C on a local pol’s McMansion. They just had another hearing last week, but I have no idea what transpired, except now there’s a new sale date.
So these squatters are basically “house sitters”. They get to stay in the house, keep it in good condition, in exchange for free mortgage, until the bank’s ready to put it on the market in 2, maybe three years. #winning
Meanwhile, those of us who pay our mortgages faithfully…
That whole approach is dependent on them having enough time to maintain their current approach to liquidation. There are so many variables to this - employment, demographics, global economy, etc.
We already have seen the damage from the price declines - now comes the damage from the simple passage of time and events. Which, IMHO, will take the greater toll.
The problem with sitting on it is that like milk, vacant housing goes bad. That’s why there used to be governemnt cheese. The government bought tons of milk to keep prices up and had to do SOMETHING with it. The answer was cheese. Pretty cr@ppy American cheese that was really only good for making nachos, in fact. What can the banks do with all this property to keep it from going bad?
Foreclosure filings continued to fall in April, but not necessarily because fewer people were behind on their mortgages, according to a new report.
“Foreclosure activity decreased on an annual basis for the seventh straight month in April, bringing foreclosure activity to a 40-month low,” James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of foreclosure data company RealtyTrac, said in the report. “This slowdown continues to be largely the result of massive delays in processing foreclosures rather than the result of a housing recovery that is lifting people out of foreclosure.”
…
Nationwide, homes typically took 400 days to go from the initial default notice to bank repossession in the first quarter, up from 340 days a year earlier and 151 days in the first quarter of 2007, RealtyTrac said.
The Seattle area, including King, Pierce and Snohomish counties, had one filing for every 564 homes in April. That was the 67th-highest rate among the 206 U.S. areas with more than 200,000 people, RealtyTrac said. Las Vegas continued to have the highest rate, one for every 82 homes.
Washington had one filing for every 715 homes — the 20th-highest rate among states and Washington, D.C. Nevada had the highest rate, one for ever 97 homes, for the 52nd-straight month.
…
Personal bankruptcies, especially among elderly, surge in Massachusetts
WEYMOUTH —Personal bankruptcy filings have risen to their highest levels since bankruptcy reform legislation was enacted in 2005, spurred by widespread job losses, underemployment and a stagnant real estate market.
The bankruptcy epidemic has affected a wide variety of households, from people in their prime earning years who are struggling after layoffs to retirees who are no longer able to pay their mortgages.
In Massachusetts, the total number of Chapter 7 and Chapter 13 personal bankruptcy filings rose to nearly 23,000 last year, up 16 percent from 2009. Nationally, personal bankruptcy filings rose 9 percent over the same time.
A 33-year-old administrator at a residential treatment facility for at-risk teens had never fell behind on his bills. But the purchase of a condo in Abington during the height of the real estate bubble proved to be disastrous for him.
David, who asked that his last name not be used in this story, bought the condo in 2005 with a friend as an investment and short-term living arrangement, using an interest-only mortgage that became an adjustable rate mortgage after five years.
As the economy lurched into recession, both took pay cuts and David’s roommate lost his job. Hoping to force the lender to modify the loan, the pair stopped paying the mortgage for nearly three years. They finally settled on a short sale, a process that left them with a $90,000 debt. “Unfortunately, like a lot of people we ended up with a mortgage that was set up for failure,” he said.
The bankruptcy epidemic has cut across all circles, but what’s changing is the demographics, local bankruptcy lawyers say.
“For the first time, we’re seeing a great deal of elderly people,” said Wayne Gilbert, a bankruptcy lawyer from Weymouth. “Before 2007, we didn’t.”
Gilbert recalled a woman nearing her 90th birthday who begged him to take her case so that she could pass on a clean estate to her family.
Are the heirs responsible for the debts of the deceased? Or is it just limited to the estate? I’m a little fuzzy on how that works. I remember a guy I used to know many years ago telling me that his father left him a lot of debt he had to pay off. But I’m not sure if he meant he had to liquidate his father’s assets to pay it off. The way he talked, it went beyond the liquidation of estate and that the son was personally on the hook.
“Are you asking if one can leave debts in his will for others to pay off after he dies?”
No, I’m just asking if heirs are on the hook for debts of the deceased.
But I like your idea. Run up my credit cards just before I kick the bucket and leave the debt to MALDEFF.
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Comment by combotechie
2011-05-12 05:47:41
“Run up my credit cards just before I kick the bucket …”
From what I understand this is exactly what a lot of old folks are doing.
Comment by polly
2011-05-12 06:28:44
No, your entire estate is subject to your debts so if you die “under water” your heirs get nothing, you can’t obligate your childen to pay anything beyond that unless they are co-signers.
Creditors try to get the kids to pay through guilt (wouldn’t your mother want all her debts paid) and by offering new “terms” that the heirs then sign, thereby taking on the debt legally.
Comment by goirishgohoosiers
2011-05-12 06:29:46
Creditors love to push this line, but it is untrue. The heir of an estate are never personally liable for the debts of the deceased unless that person voluntarily took on the debt, such as by cosigning with the deceased.
The estate of a deceased is a separate legal entity from the person who just died. As such, the estate may have to pay the debts of the deceased, and in so doing the amount available for distribution to heirs could be reduced.
Comment by palmetto
2011-05-12 07:37:50
“Creditors try to get the kids to pay through guilt (wouldn’t your mother want all her debts paid) and by offering new “terms” that the heirs then sign, thereby taking on the debt legally.”
Thanks, polly, it sounds like that’s what happened to that guy, he probably took on his father’s debts, trying to do the right thing because “that’s what dad would have wanted.” Sheesh.
Comment by polly
2011-05-12 08:56:06
There is a reason jobs like that (calling people with no responsibility for a debt whohave just lost a loved one and trying to get them to pay) have a high turnover rate. There are people with absolutely no morals who must thrive in that environment, but not everyone can do it. I expect the get extensive training on exactly what they can and can’t say to avoid flat out lying to these people.
Comment by Montana
2011-05-12 10:06:39
Then there are the heirs who are peeved that they have to pay the debts before they get their inheritance.
Comment by Jim A
2011-05-12 10:13:37
Polly are there any limitations to what they can do and who they can call? It’s my understanding that there are pretty strict rules about calling people up and asking them to reaffirm debts that were discharged through bankruptcy.
Comment by polly
2011-05-12 11:11:47
Yeah, I fairly sure there are strict limits on trying to get someone who isn’t responsible for the debts (like a kid) to take them on. That is why you have to be kind of a scum bag to do it. You are skirting the edge of lying at all times. You are taking advantage of emotionally vulnerable people. You are trying to get the grieving to do something most assuredly against their best interest. And since you have to be careful not to lie, it isn’t like your employer has lied to you and told you they are deadbeats - they couldn’t train you to do your job if they did. The callers can’t claim to not know the person they are calling really doesn’t have to pay a cent once the estate is finished. Nasty piece of business. I’d get fired in an hour. I hate that stuff.
Comment by Jim A
2011-05-12 15:42:09
For that matter, even if you agree to pay, there is no “consideration,” so I’m not sure that you could be legally compeled if you later changed your mind. I’m not aware that assuming somebody else’s debts are one of the categories of contracts* that can be upheld without a consideration.
*like reaffirming your own debts, or gifts to charity.
I would assume debt doesn’t transfer to a non-spouse member of the family, unless it’s a title thing. My mother was obligated to pay the cc’s in my father’s name in Ca. We’re a community property state. We paid 50C on the dollar. The rest the bank wrote off, but it was a taxable event.
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Comment by Blue Skye
2011-05-12 06:19:20
I did not pay any credit card debt of my father’s after he died. No fuss. The hospital gave me a hard time over the ambulance fee, but they didn’t take legal action against the estate. My mother naturally got title to the house and still was responsible for the (tiny) mortgage. NY.
Comment by 2banana
2011-05-12 06:29:38
I did not pay any credit card debt of my father’s after he died. No fuss. The hospital gave me a hard time over the ambulance fee, but they didn’t take legal action against the estate. My mother naturally got title to the house and still was responsible for the (tiny) mortgage. NY.
You got lucky. In probate, the ccs and the hospital could have demanded their loans from the estate (to inlcude the house) or attach a lien to the house.
Comment by Awaiting
2011-05-12 06:42:24
Blue
Interesting to compare notes and different states. Thanks. I did the death benefits, and my financially clueless sister did the debt settlements. She got some dough for her efforts, and it cost me to collect, without reimbursement. POS for a mother.
Comment by Awaiting
2011-05-12 06:48:53
Blue
It took me 3 months and 7 benefits to deal with. It was quite time consuming, and not all the calls were 800 numbers, postage, notary costs, etc… Plus hours and hours of reading, following up, and calling. I got screwed. My sister’s kids flew to expensive summer camps compliment of my hard work. I hope my Mother’s funeral is nice. I’m staying home.
Comment by Blue Skye
2011-05-12 07:50:09
banana,
My dad was a crafty one. The estate was worth less than $10K, so no probate. No way they could have gone after the house. Mom owned the house complete upon his death without it being an inheritance. Had they both died, then it would have been a different ballgame.
Awaiting,
My dad arranged all his affairs so that all I had to do was open a binder and make the calls as directed. The man was my best friend and hero. I’d give all the postage stamps in the world for one more day with him.
I’m sorry your mileage was different.
Comment by polly
2011-05-12 08:50:23
“My dad arranged all his affairs so that all I had to do was open a binder and make the calls as directed.”
My parents have something similar and keep it updated every year. It is, perhaps, the kindest thing they have ever done for my brother and I, though we don’t expect to have to deal with it for over a decade. Mom got inspired after the second parental spouse (her aunt and then her uncle) left her with a mess to deal with on their passing. Mom calls it the death book. Dad has never referred to it at all. I call it the Book of the Dead.
Comment by Awaiting
2011-05-12 09:04:25
Blue
I am happy you had good parents, and your Father was your mentor, so to speak. Parents that have things arranged are the good ones. I wasn’t so lucky. Lots of death denial in our family.
Before my Mother’s body is cold, trust me, my Sister will be at the bank and through her things.
Polly,
You’re another lucky one. I like what you named the “instruction book”. You and Blue come from good stock.
Comment by CarrieAnn
2011-05-12 09:23:58
That book idea is so wonderful, one last gift to you really. There is great mystery surrounding our elders’ affairs. They allude to situations here and there but if there was in an auto accident we’d be completely lost. Unless their lawyer is holding instructions similar to said book. Or perhaps their lawyer is supposed to handle everything.
Too bad I don’t respect him as much as they do. Maybe we should sit them down and at least get a few phone numbers.
Comment by polly
2011-05-12 10:08:10
I haven ‘t been through the book in a number of years but you need at least this much:
social security numbers/cards
a copy of the will and the location of the real one
papers related to any trust
name and contact info for the lawyer who dealt with the will and anything else important
copies of all insurance policies
location of and how to access all safety deposit boxes, like where the key are kept
locations of any cash or valuables they have stashed in non-obvious places
Deed to the house, if any, or location of same and where the spare keys are kept
car title(s), if any, or locations of same and where the spare keys are kept
list of bills that generally have to be paid in any month and the account numbers related to them
list of all credit card accounts
list of all bank accounts
list of retirement accounts
list of debts other than credit cards
location of and information about any burial plots
instructions for burial or cremation
if it exists, where they pre-planned and paid for their funerals
information about how to get access to their computers if they get important financial documents by e-mail, but better to print out a recent version at least once a year for the book plus how to access on-line bank information
location of and how to access any guns, if applicable
Nice to have:
list of their doctors so they can be notified and future appointments can be cancelled
list of any items in the house that are worth a lot more than the kids might think (no, that ugly painting that you have always hated is worth quite a bit, it should go to an auction house, not a yard sale)
text for a death announcement if they want one, including for any alumni magazines
instructions for military honors for a funeral if applicable
information about how to access computers so stored photos or other family stuff can be accessed
Information about on-line accounts like facebook so they can be cancelled
list of charities they often donated to so they can be notified and list of charities they would like to get incidental stuff that wouldn’t be disposed of in a will and the kids probably don’t want like clothes
I’m sure I’ve missed a few, but that is enough to get anyone started.
Comment by polly
2011-05-12 10:11:02
A list of what you need and other stuff you might want will post shortly - it was a long post.
Comment by Montana
2011-05-12 10:11:34
People were after me to check up on my father’s estate before he died, get all involved in his business and ask him a lot of questions before he died. But he was pretty sick and I sensed he wouldn’t like it. In the end the living trust he’d done after some seminar 30 yrs ago held up just fine and everything worked out okay.
Thank you. I have printed it out and I am going to compare it with what I already have.
Regards,
Patrick
Comment by polly
2011-05-12 12:11:49
You are welcome. You will certainly want to add things for your particular situation. Just make sure to be careful with where they/you keep the book. It is pretty much everything a thief could ever want. It really belongs in a fireproof safe, but then you have to make sure your heirs know how to get into the safe
“For the first time, we’re seeing a great deal of elderly people,” said Wayne Gilbert, a bankruptcy lawyer from Weymouth. “Before 2007, we didn’t.”
That’s because today’s elderly have different values than the previous elderly. But get used to it. The elderly to come will be MUCH poorer than today’s elderly.
Someone memtioned the other day (I think it was AZ Slim) about how the geezers meet a fast food places in the morning to drink cheap coffee and complain about things. Of course they are the lucky ones who were able to buy a house for 1-2X annual income, have a pension, savings and collect SS.
The next generation of geezers will be serving the coffee and mopping the floors.
Treasury Auctions To Take US Over Debt Ceiling On Monday
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- The Treasury Department auctioned $56 billion in new debt Tuesday and Wednesday, enough to take the U.S. over its federal debt ceiling when the three- and 10-year notes settle on Monday.
Treasury officials last month flagged May 16 as the day the government would hit the $14.294 trillion debt limit.
The U.S. is selling $72 billion in new debt over three days this week. The Treasury auctioned $32 billion in three-year notes Tuesday and $24 billion in 10-year notes Wednesday, and will sell $16 billion in 30-year bonds Thursday. All of the auctions will settle Monday.
As of Tuesday, total debt subject to the limit was $14.274 trillion, according to the Treasury Department.
The Obama administration has asked Congress to raise the limit, warning that failure to act could lead the government to default by Aug. 2–and could spook investors even before then.
A study of who would suffer if the federal government failed to raise the federal debt limit suggests San Diego stands to lose up to $17 billion per year
The analysis, by National University System’s Institute for Policy Research, shows 21 percent of the region’s gross domestic product comes from federal spending.
Erik Bruvald of NUSIPR said $36 billion in federal money flowed into San Diego in 2009, the latest available figures. The biggest chunk, 42 percent, goes to defense and military related spending. He said 33 percent goes to entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.
“And then if people think if you just end welfare and some of the social safety net programs – well, in San Diego County, that only accounts for 2.1 percent of all federal spending,” he said.
…
He said 33 percent goes to entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.
There they go again, calling insurance programs that every worker contributes over 14% of his/her income throught a lifetime as “entitlements”.
And this is done for one reason, and one reason alone: to condition J6P to not complain when these programs are cancelled (while the payroll tax remains firmly in place to fund wars)
Since LBJ, Social Security became an entitlement. It is not an insurance program with ANY implied benefits. It is tax.
All previous SS monies collected have been spent. The money is GONE.
All SS money going out today is collected today from taxes on current workers (ie - redistribution of taxes).
The average SS recipient today will collect far more than they ever put into the SS system (with interest). The tipping point hits in a few years. Those that are in their 20s, 30s and 40s today will get a pittance of what they put in.
There is no “lock box”, all SS tax collected goes into the general treasury.
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Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-05-12 07:34:41
“All previous SS monies collected have been spent. The money is GONE.”
Yawn. Standard lines of the anti-social security trolls. The money was spent in the same way all money used to buy Treasuries was spent- by its borrower, the US government.
Are you saying all Treasury notes are no good, since the money was spent? Or are we just defaulting on the notes owned by the little people, with the wealthy getting their Treasury notes paid in full?
Comment by 2banana
2011-05-12 07:53:57
Are you saying all Treasury notes are no good, since the money was spent?
See Greece, Ireland, Iceland, and Portugal for my answer
Comment by oxide
2011-05-12 08:01:01
+1
Money is fungible. Why should social security payments be discontinued, instead of, say, defense contractor payments, or payments to the Chinese? We’re all under the same debt.
Oh please banana, say the “p” word.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-05-12 08:08:23
“See Greece, Ireland, Iceland, and Portugal for my answer”
Hey, I’ll give you points for consistency. At least you recognize we’d have to default on _everybody_ if we refuse to honor the Treasuries held by the SS trust fund.
Some seem to think we can selectively default on just the SS treasuries.
Comment by In Colorado
2011-05-12 08:11:54
“All SS money going out today is collected today from taxes on current workers (ie - redistribution of taxes).”
I would agree with that if SS was funded from the income tax. But its not. Its funded via a dedicated tax, whose sole purpose is to fund social security. Just like a health insurance premium has a sole purpose, to pay for health care. That SS is mandatory does not make it any less of an insurance program.
“Or are we just defaulting on the notes owned by the little people, with the wealthy getting their Treasury notes paid in full?”
Careful with what you say in public. You could end up on the “island” for knowing too much.
And my prediction remains. They will try to kill SS, while leaving the payroll tax in place to fund wars. The money is there, they just want to spend it something else (guns).
Comment by 2banana
2011-05-12 08:17:25
Hey, I’ll give you points for consistency. At least you recognize we’d have to default on _everybody_ if we refuse to honor the Treasuries held by the SS trust fund.
No - first they will just cut the Social Security entitlement or raise the age limit or make it make it income/wealth dependent or whatever.
You see, it is just another government program that the government can do with what they want. If it was an insurance program - you would have a contract that you could sue to enforce and the insurance company would have to have the assets they promised.
In the end, SS is backed ONLY with future wages of future workers (since NOTHING has been saved) or with the “full faith and backing” of US Treasuries.
Personally, I would rather have all the money I put into SS, in my name, in either gold, oil stock or farm land. But that is just me…
Comment by In Colorado
2011-05-12 09:04:07
You see, it is just another government program that the government can do with what they want. If it was an insurance program - you would have a contract that you could sue to enforce and the insurance company would have to have the assets they promised.
To a point that is true. But insurance companies are pretty much also pay as you go, redistributionist programs. And many do invest their assets in US securities as well. And FWIW, gold and stocks are volatile.
But I agree with you that it would be better if SS had diversified the “trust fund”. But so far Uncle Sam isn’t defaulting. When he does, all bets are off and I think SS will be the least of our worries as our nation will probably be ripped apart. I hope to have a foreign passport when that happens, as US Passports will be persona non grata around the world (unless you have a LOT of money).
Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-05-12 09:20:53
“SS is backed ONLY with future wages of future workers (since NOTHING has been saved) or with the “full faith and backing” of US Treasuries.”
The 14th Amendment to the Constitution
Section 4. The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.
An isn’t money held in the form of Treasuries ’saved’? Or do you have some unique definition of the word?
Comment by 2banana
2011-05-12 09:38:30
An isn’t money held in the form of Treasuries ’saved’? Or do you have some unique definition of the word?
See Greece, Ireland, Iceland, and Portugal for my answer
But insurance companies are pretty much also pay as you go, redistributionist programs.
I think you’re missing the point here (assuming I understand what 2banana is saying).
The term “insurance” is being used way too liberally when applied to SS. With proper insurance, you’d have a contract which details what events are insured against, and what compensation you will receive.
With SS there is no such thing. The terms are subject to change at the whim of one party. You could argue it’s a “forced savings” program, but it really doesn’t compare to what one usually considers “insurance” on a daily basis.
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-05-12 10:29:22
Hey slipperybanana, what was your ball-park $ dollar e$timation for the value of America?, you know,…everything!
(“TrueAnger™” disciple/advocates seem to always avoid that gue$$timation as well.)
Comment by In Colorado
2011-05-12 10:33:18
The term “insurance” is being used way too liberally when applied to SS.
Perhaps, but to call it an entitlement is even more disingenous, with the implication that it wasn’t earned.
And this mentality is EVERYWHERE (congratulations, PTB, who have accomplished your mission).
There was even a Simpsons episode where Abe Simpson says that he did nothing to earn his monthly SS check. Did he forget about all the money that was withheld from his paycheck?
Comment by measton
2011-05-12 10:38:40
banana’s - You see, it is just another government program that the government can do with what they want. If it was an insurance program - you would have a contract that you could sue to enforce and the insurance company would have to have the assets they promised.
This is laughable
1. Insurance companies play all kinds of games to knock sick people out of their insurance program. They cancel contracts with small businesses that have a sick employee. They review records and find one high blood pressure and then claim you lied and negate your policy. They don’t pay claims promptly and try to fool the elderly into making payments that are owed by insurance companies. They put low caps on these plans and people that don’t understand the costs of medicine buy them only to find they aren’t covered. They get sick people on to medicaid adn medicare. That’s why the public satisfaction with medicare and social security is through the roof while opions polls on insurance companies suggest low satisfaction.
2. Insurance companies can go bankrupt. You really think they have enough money to back up claims. See my article yesterday about how they are using financial instruments similar to MBS to hide their risk and elevate profits. You can bet that if things hit the skids again they will require a bailout or default on payments.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-05-12 10:52:35
The term “insurance” is being used way too liberally when applied to SS. With proper insurance, you’d have a contract which details what events are insured against,
Yea. You know. Like “proper” American private health insurance-the kind that doesn’t really insure you when you are dumb enough to get sick or something.
They are entitlements. Insurance is voluntary. The so-called contributions are taxes.
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Comment by Steve J
2011-05-12 07:52:59
I thought the Amish opt out of Social Security?
Comment by In Colorado
2011-05-12 08:14:31
An entitlement is something someone else pays for, like food stamps. I have paid hundreds of thousands into SS. Any benefits I receive are not entitlements.
Like I said, we are being brainwashed into believing this so that it will be easier to rip us off.
I have paid hundreds of thousands into SS. Any benefits I receive are not entitlements.
And that’s true for some % of the SS recipients. But not all. So is it an insurance program for some, but an entitlement for others?
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-05-12 09:27:41
I thought the Amish opt out of Social Security?
They do. Instead of SS, they take care of each other.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-05-12 09:30:33
“Like I said, we are being brainwashed into believing this so that it will be easier to rip us off.”
Exactly. Like the oft-repeated myth that Social Security is bankrupt, when in fact:
The trust fund will run out in 2037, “at which point tax income would be sufficient to pay about 75 percent of scheduled benefits through 2084.” Full Social Security solvency would require only about 0.7 percent of GDP, which you can get to by exposing income above $107,000 to the payroll tax.
Slate
Comment by Montana
2011-05-12 10:19:58
“we are being brainwashed into believing this so that it will be easier to rip us off.”
Tell that to all the cavalier folk who like to say, “I know I’ll never see a penny of it - ” Good, then we don’t need to pay you do we.
Comment by Jim A
2011-05-12 10:24:08
And this is done for one reason, and one reason alone: to condition J6P to not complain when these programs are cancelled (while the payroll tax remains firmly in place to fund wars)
umm…no. “Entitlement” simply means that those who qualify are legally “entitled” to the payments. Which means that the money used does not need to appropriated in the way that the money for a new aircraft carrier, or bridge to nowhere does. Which is why if they hadn’t passed a budget earlier this year the administration COULDN’T simply cut Social Security payments to make ends meet.
Comment by In Colorado
2011-05-12 10:37:27
“Tell that to all the cavalier folk who like to say, “I know I’ll never see a penny of it - ” Good, then we don’t need to pay you do we.”
That’s exactly what I mean. Once people are brainwashed into believing they won’t get anything, then it will be a piece of cake to redirect the payroll tax receipts to other “programs”.
“Entitlement” simply means that those who qualify are legally “entitled” to the payments. Which means that the money used does not need to appropriated in the way that the money for a new aircraft carrier, or bridge to nowhere does.”
I don’t disagree with you. But in the popular vernacular “entitlement” means “welfare”.
Comment by measton
2011-05-12 10:42:42
drummy - I have paid hundreds of thousands into SS. Any benefits I receive are not entitlements.And that’s true for some % of the SS recipients. But not all. So is it an insurance program for some, but an entitlement for others?
This is exactly how an insurance program works too. Some people get more back than they put in right.
SS is an insurance program that says you will not starve in the streets if you outlive your savings. Some people die before 65 and get nothing, others live to 100 and benefit greatly. It’s called insurance.
SS is an insurance program that says you will not starve in the streets if you outlive your savings.
Strongly disagree. You might view it that way, but with insurance I pay a premium and have covered events. Are you saying that I’m paying premiums each time they forcefully deduct from my paycheck? And the covered event is me turning 65?
Why then do I get statements as far as my “balance”, if it’s an insurance policy?
Comment by polly
2011-05-12 11:36:36
Oh, Jim. You and your “facts.” You make it so much harder to rant. Ranting is much more satisfying.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-05-12 11:45:45
“. Are you saying that I’m paying premiums each time they forcefully deduct from my paycheck? And the covered event is me turning 65?”
Yes.
Comment by oxide
2011-05-12 12:49:27
The real problem is the meaning of the word “entitlement.”
It used to have an honest connotation. e.g. I paid my $4.50, therefore I am “entitled” to that cup of coffee.
Now it carries some sarcasm and arrogance with it. e.g. I lost money on my house, therefore I am “entitled” to a refinance.
Those who refer to SS as an “entitlement” program are playing off of the sarcastic connotation.
So it’s not an entitlement, not really insurance… I guess the closest description of SS is a “government pension,” but then the Walkers of the world would try to take it away again. Or better yet, “retirement escrow.”
Comment by whyoung
2011-05-12 13:14:13
“I have paid hundreds of thousands into SS”
Please explain how this is possible… since in 2011 only the first $106,800 of wares are subject to FICA of 4.2% ($4485.60)
Even at the previous rate of 6.2% ($6621.60)
Comment by In Colorado
2011-05-12 13:20:23
Those who refer to SS as an “entitlement” program are playing off of the sarcastic connotation.
Exactly. In the modern vernacular it means “handout”.
To my understanding, the inherent problem with Medicare is that the average person pays $150k into the system over their lifetime, but gets $450k of benefit.
Even when factoring in some growth in the $150k (inflation, etc.), the math works more as an entitlement than as insurance (especially since the money has been spent, and not set aside for care).
If Medicare was supposed to work as non-profit insurance, the premiums would be higher and the benefit lower. Which, by the way, is probably where we are heading.
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Comment by measton
2011-05-12 10:45:23
The GOP has done everything to make Medicare look bad. GW’s prescription drug plan heaped huge costs on medicare. They forbid medicare to bargain for cheaper drugs or use a formulary. Thus the VA pays 60% less for prescription drugs than does Medicare. It seems the PTB are intent on stripping the wealth from the workers in medicine and local hospitals and handing it to big pharma or insurance companies.
Comment by In Colorado
2011-05-12 11:06:03
Medicare is of course hurt by runaway medical costs in the US and is in much more dire straits than SS. Of
Comment by Rental Watch
2011-05-12 11:12:02
On the other side though, Medicare pays hospitals and other healthcare providers far less than traditional insurance companies (shockingly less in many cases).
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-05-12 11:22:33
On the other side though, Medicare pays hospitals and other healthcare providers far less than traditional insurance companies (shockingly less in many cases).
ISTR more than one doctor-member of this blog saying how much more they preferred dealing with Medicare than the private insurance companies. I think that RE Hobbyist’s sentiments were along the lines of true love.
BTW, how’s the Hobbyist doing these days? She was in cancer treatment — was it successful? (Please say yes. Please.)
Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-05-12 11:54:28
Medicare’s problems are solved by universal health care.
The government currently runs a health insurance company that covers only the elderly, the chronically ill, and those too poor to pay. The private health insurance companies cover the healthy and the wealthy. We need those people paying in to the public insurance plan in order for it to work.
Currently, we’re like an auto insurance company that only covers the blind, the drunk, and those who can’t pay- it’s not an efficient way to run an insurance program.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-05-12 11:59:11
Medicare’s problems are solved by universal health care.
Yes. And when Medicare’s problems are solved by universal health care so are much of America’s money problems solved, and solved on a personal, corporate, state and federal level.
Comment by polly
2011-05-12 11:59:31
Medicare doesn’t pay that much less that private insurance for most healthcare. Hospitals routinely make a profit on their Medicare patients. Medicaid on the other hand does pay less - way less.
(General statements. There will be some variations.)
Comment by Rental Watch
2011-05-12 13:42:23
I worked for a healthcare consulting firm for a summer as an intern (years ago). What we did was this:
1. Review all contracts between hospitals and insurance providers;
2. Review all bills/procedures and matched them against the applicable contracts; and
3. Rebill insurance companies for underpayments
So, if someone gets a Kidney transplant and the hospital was reimbursed at the wrong rate ($5k instead of $30k), we collected the additional money ($25k) from the insurance company. The consulting firm never went after individuals who weren’t paying. The work was fine. I didn’t feel bad about going after insurance companies to get them to pay what they owed, but there was not much to learn after a few months on the job.
The data was organized by DRG Codes, so you would have all patients with the same work done together, and scan through the bills/payments. It was common to see a string of reimbursements for certain procedures where a lot of the numbers were common and clustered (a group of payments that were either $5k or $7.5k, or $8), which represented the private insurers. There were then a group of payments that were all the same, but appeared to be outliers on the low side ($2k, for instance). Then there were other outliers ($500, or $1,250, etc.). The other outliers is what we were looking for.
The common low payments ($2k in my example) were the Medicare reimbursements.
Medicare paid WAY less than the private insurers. Perhaps that has changed over the years, but I doubt it. A friend of mine currently works for a surgeon who does things like hip replacements. According to that person, the reimbursement rate by Medicare for a hip replacement is shockingly low as compared to private insurers.
Polly, I don’t know what you know that is different from my experience, but based on what I saw firsthand, I’m not sure how hospitals make any money on Medicare patients, if any. Unless of course, how the reimbursements are calculated have changed, which is quite possible.
I have been in a room with the people who represent the hospital industry and they told me that Medicare is less but not dramatically so and that Medicaid is much, much less.
In addition, it simply logical. Hospitals are not all going broke. A very large number of hosptial patients are insured under Medicare. If Medicare didn’t cover hospital direct costs plus enough extra to cover indirect costs, they would all be going bankrupt all the time. They don’t get enough in donations to make up any significant difference and the donations they do get rarely are used to cover operating expenses. Small hospitals that can’t possibly be efficient enough to make money on Medicare (they have to have certain basic machines, but don’t have enough patients to keep them busy most of the time), get a special exemption from the Medicare reimbursement schedule as “critical access hospitals” and get reimbursed on a cost plus a small percentage extra basis.
Medicare is not the issue. Medicaid and the un/under insured are.
42 percent, goes to defense and military related spending ??
Thats the one that I would be most concerned about…The elections are going to play a big part IMO…If, the electorate pushes back “against” the republicans desires to slash the social programs and not do the same to the biggest budget item we have (military), then I think you could see a “major” realignment of just what kind of military we are going to have…My suspicion is that Peneta has taking his new position for a reason…
IMO, I think in many ways we won’t even recognize our new military…It will not be the boots-on-the-ground, hummers & tanks that we all have witnessed over the past…A new, high tech, fast & efficient and most importantly, very powerful type of military is what I see…
This will not be good news for most area’s dependent on military bases for economic support…As always, there will be winners & losers…I think the bases that have ports will fair well…I suspect the interior bases will be most vulnerable…
“IMO, I think in many ways we won’t even recognize our new military…It will not be the boots-on-the-ground, hummers & tanks that we all have witnessed over the past…A new, high tech, fast & efficient and most importantly, very powerful type of military is what I see…”
The Buck Rodgers military will be very good at defeating an opponent, of that I have no doubt. But when its time to occupy the defeated and do “nation building” the boots and Humvees will still be required. And since that seems to be the only kind of war we are fighting these days, I really doubt the military is going to change.
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Comment by scdave
2011-05-12 09:13:42
But when its time to occupy the defeated and do “nation building” the boots and Humvees will still be required ??
Just wait until the bills must be paid then we will see….Can’t borrow for ever…
Comment by In Colorado
2011-05-12 11:07:56
Just wait until the bills must be paid then we will see….Can’t borrow for ever…
That is what will bring the change. And why I believe they want to kill SS, so they can use the payroll tax to pay for the wars.
“42 percent, goes to defense and military related spending ??”
No, 42% is the portion of ALL so-called discretionary spending. Defense is 25%; all other discretionary is 18%.
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Comment by In Colorado
2011-05-12 09:06:38
It depends what you throw into the pot. SS and Medicare are funded via the payroll tax. If you keep their budgets separate (as it should be as they should not be funded via income taxes) then yes, the military eats the lion’s share of the budget.
Comment by scdave
2011-05-12 09:11:34
No, 42% is the portion of ALL so-called discretionary ??
The 42% came from Pbears post on the percentage of federal spending in Dan Diego that was military related…
In sum, higher interest rates, a coming recession without the ability to just spend our way out of it, but higher prices for everything we need such as fuel, food etc. Sounds like the mother of stagflation to me. He has been very accurate in his forecasts in my opinion and one of the few that I think actually is telling the truth when he speaks.
I read a Mexican newspaper article the other day that accused Obama as being “illegal unfriendly” as deportations have increased under his admin. They also claimed that “immigration reform’”speeches like the one he gave in El Paso are just campaigning lip service.
Nothing less than open borders will please them. Just recently there have been numerous articles about the border patrol manipulating numbers by not arresting people for illegal crossings just shooing them back across the border. Remember we are told that fewer arrests mean fewer people are crossing.
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Comment by Steve J
2011-05-12 08:07:31
I always thought lower arrests ment better bribes?
Comment by In Colorado
2011-05-12 08:22:07
“Nothing less than open borders will please them.”
Agreed. FWIW, they still consider the SW as “stolen territory” and the common wisdom down there that they will take it back, that its only a question of time.
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2011-05-12 10:21:38
I consider myself as far to the left as possible on the environment, and as far to the right as possible on immigration. (and I don’t mean the McCain amnesty right)
I also don’t consider those concepts mutually exclusive. More people is not necessarily a good thing, and especially not if they’re not citizens.
Comment by palmetto
2011-05-12 11:11:04
Well, sleepless, it has been said that the easiest way to reduce global warming is to put on a condom, something that most if not all of the illegals from south of the border are not on board with.
I have a mortal terror of this country ending up like some overpopulated third world hell hole. It seems to be heading in that direction.
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-05-12 11:23:36
I consider myself as far to the left as possible on the environment, and as far to the right as possible on immigration. (and I don’t mean the McCain amnesty right)
And here I thought I was the only one! Seems that I have an insomniac ally from the Seattle area.
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2011-05-12 11:31:34
I agree, Palm.
Slim, that’s the rub I have with politics. I think most Americans lean one way or other on individual ISSUES, not in aggregate as they have been led to believe they should.
If we could harness all the energy wasted in partisan political BS and douche-baggery, gas prices would be $1.29 tomorrow.
(and I’m actually in Portland; maybe it’s time for a name change)
Comment by mikeinbend
2011-05-12 18:13:03
sleepless_near_Beaverton?
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2011-05-12 19:57:11
I’d be sleeping_with_one_eye_open_near_Beaverton if that were the case….
Invariably, the mass immigration pattern is from an unsuccessful culture to a successful one. The possible problem is that if the immigration is massive enough, the unsuccessful culture will supplant the successful one, leading to a lose-lose situation. Both the immigrants are losing as they are just moving back into the situation they were trying to avoid, and the current residents lose as the successful culture is supplanted by the unsuccessful one.
So, this doesn’t call for no immigration - heterogeneity in the animal kingdom usually yields a hardier species. Homogeneity can lead to the royal families of Europe, with their genetic disorders. A culture that incorporates the best from the world’s cultures will be hardier it seems to me. Plus, immigrants are people willing to take chances and work hard, from my observations anyway. I think the answer is “assimilation”. A smaller amount of immigration plus assimilation is a win for both the immigrants plus the local population.
Well, you wake up in the mornin’, you hear the work bell ring
And they march you to the table to see the same old thing
Well you gotta pay the bills now, you gotta pay the rent.
But you better not complain boy, or to the curb your sent.
Boom Ba Boom Boom Ba Boom
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a light on me
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a light on me
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a light on me
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a everlovin’ light on me
Yonder come miss Rosie, how in the world did you know?
She hasn’t paid her mortgage, in two years or so.
Umbrella on her shoulder, foreclosure papers in her hand.
She come to see her lawyer, she wants a workout plan.
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a light on me
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a light on me
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a light on me
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a everlovin’ light on me
If you’re ever in Orlando, well, you better do the right
You better not gamble, and you better not fight
But if you`re underwater, then you need a plan
This is what it is boy, just don`t pay the man
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a light on me
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a light on me
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a light on me
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a everlovin’ light on me
I remember Ben telling people during this time period…
You want to buy a house, buy a house. Go ahead buy 2 or 3.
How the $8,000 Tax Credit Cost Home Buyers $15,000
BY THE NUMBERSMAY 10, 2011, 9:06 A.M. ET.
The government’s recent $8,000 cash incentive for first-time home buyers has proved even more costly for recipients than for taxpayers, according to data released Monday. Typical buyers have lost twice as much to price declines as they received from the program.
“I remember Ben telling people during this time period…
You want to buy a house, buy a house. Go ahead buy 2 or 3.”
I should have added that Ben said exactly this would happen. Words to the affect that the price drops were not over and this was the biggest mania in history.
You’re right, Jeff. I want to thank Ben for waking my tosh up. I was seriously drooling for a home back then, and Ben warned me. He slowed down my urgency, and I want to thank him. We need to buy (for cash) due to a Glaucoma issue, but we are now level headed more so than ever. Thanks Ben.
Looks like the banks are positioning themselves for the coming MERS meltdown.
Borrowing Trouble
Some lenders are modifying mortgages only after homeowners waive their right to sue.
Slate
“A few months ago, Bank of America offered Sergio Cortez of Staten Island, N.Y., the help he desperately needed to stay in his home: a break on his mortgage. Like millions of others, he was facing foreclosure. But there was a catch buried in the fine print. Cortez had to waive any possibility of ever suing the bank for anything relating to the loan.
Cortez isn’t alone. While regulators have banned the practice, some banks and others who handle mortgages have still been forcing homeowners into a corner: You want a chance at saving your home? Then you’ll have to waive your rights.
GMAC, for instance, the fifth-largest servicer, which oversees about 2.5 million mortgages, includes a clause in its modification agreements that the “Borrower acknowledges that Lender is the legal holder of the owner of the Note and Security Instrument.”
GMAC is not alone. Citibank’s servicing arm, the fourth-largest servicer, included a very similar clause in a recent modification agreement with another client of Queens Legal Services. ”
“… some banks and others who handle mortgages have still been forcing homeowners into a corner: You want a chance of saving your home? They you’ll have to waive your rights.”
Oh, please sir, may I have another?
Keep ‘em stayin’ and keep ‘em payin’. Promise them ANYTHING, just don’t let them leave.
Oh, and somehow convince them you are their latest best friend and are doing them a big favor.
“Looks like the banks are positioning themselves for the coming MERS meltdown.”
Moon river
MERS meltdown, wider than a mile
I’m crossing you in style some day
Oh, dream maker, you heart breaker
Wherever you’re goin’, I’m goin’ your way
Two drifters, off to see the world
There’s such a lot of world to see
We’re after the same rainbow’s end, waitin’ ’round the bend
My huckleberry friend, MERS meltdown , and me
Ben is right. No one is forcing banks to forgive portions of 1st mortgages. HAMP was a scam, nothing more than posturing.
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Comment by polly
2011-05-12 09:22:19
HAMP was the voluntary program it always said it was. The banks were allowed to choose to implement a program that considered giving people loan modifications that conformed with the guidelines of the program and receive a small payment to subsidize their paperwork costs. I don’t think there was even a metric for how successful they had to be at approving the modifications in order to receive the money.
That is what it always was and that is what it has turned out to be.
Now, the fact that someone over at Treasury probably thought the benefits of the program would outweigh the ire of the public when the overwhelming majority of them got no help, is what worries me. Who was that and have they quietly left yet, because it was obvious from the start that the number of people who could benefit was miniscule but the number of people who thought it would help them was huge. Even if the banks hadn’t spent all their time losing the paperwork or pursuing foreclosures simultaneously with processing modifications, the new loans were supposed to be set at 31% of gross income. I believe I demonstrated several times that that level of payment could easily be way over half of take home pay and too much for most families to handle.
Comment by Jim A
2011-05-12 10:44:32
Yes, it seemed obvious to us here that HAMP would only ever be able to help a small fraction of FBs. I don’t know whether I’m more worried by the idea that it was some sort of big con, or the idea that these guys thought that a little jawin’ and a bit of HAMP would be enough to arrest the decline in the RE market. If the choice is between crooks and idiots, I’m not at all sure which one I want. After all, crooks can be more predictable than idiots.
Comment by Rental Watch
2011-05-12 11:09:20
I think there are more and more banks that are beginning to realize that modifications that include principal reduction are in their best interest. There are costs to banks to foreclose in terms of paperwork, asset deterioration, and market perception of value. Most homeowners/debtors are willing to pay something to avoid the cost of moving, changing homes, etc. in terms of accepting less home price appreciation in the future (some structured modification), or slightly higher loan balance than they would have if they simply re-purchased the same home on the open market.
In other words, there are economic reasons for banks and borrowers to make deals that include principal reduction, where both will be better off as compared to a foreclosure process.
The number of modifications that include principal reduction are increasing (especially as banks are able to take more hits to balance sheets over time).
I’m frankly surprised it has taken this long for banks to understand that.
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-05-12 11:41:41
I’m frankly surprised it has taken this long for banks to understand that.
Yeah, you’d think that a two-by-four across their bank-y heads would have gotten the point across. But no-o-o-o! They needed a whole forest of two-by-fours.
Comment by Rental Watch
2011-05-12 16:36:44
I wonder how the regulators come into play…most bankers I know work hardest to keeping their jobs by appeasing the regulators. If the regulators were pushing them to modify by writing down principal, I’m sure that’s what they would do. However, the regulators were probably pushing them hardest to NOT write down loan balances until certain milestones were met, so they could continue to have the illusion of solvency…
“Obama Tells Companies to ‘Step Up’ and Hire Workers”
I know I shouldn’t say this because I am not arguing political cr@p anymore. But it seems like the companies like McDonalds that got a waiver from the health-care bill are hiring, How many was it last month for McD`s, 50,000 in 1 day.
Just think if we had universal coverage. Companies wouldn’t have to let health insurance costs keep them from hiring. A boon especially for start-ups and smaller companies.
As you can see, the older you are, the less likely you are to be unemployed. The unemployment rate for people over age 65 is about 6.5 percent, taken on a 12-month moving average. The unemployment rate for teenagers is nearly four times that.
…
The average jobless person over age 65 has been looking for work for 43.9 weeks. For someone between the ages of 55 and 64, the typical duration is 44.6 weeks, just a few weeks shy of a year. The average unemployment spells for both of these groups are at record highs.
The average teenager, on the other hand, has been looking for less than half that time, at 19.9 weeks.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-05-12 12:07:54
That hasn’t lead to an increase in hiring of people over 65 on Medicare.
There are other important factors going on here besides an older worker being covered by Medicare.
In general for an employer, a 70 year old with Medicare is still not the same as hiring a 30 year old to whom you have to provide medical insurance.
Yet.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-05-12 12:49:51
“The average teenager, on the other hand, has been looking for less than half that time, at 19.9 weeks.”
But teenagers, like those on Medicare, don’t have to be put onto the employers health care plan, no? I’m not sure if this article proves anything.
What would the unemployment rate amongst the over-65 be if they had to be added to their employer’s health care plan?
I am sure they didn’t hire anyone they weren’t planning to hire anyway. They may even have delayed some needed hiring to be able to do it during the special event.
Companies do what they believe to be good for them (their analysis may be wrong in any given situtation). To expect anything else is hopelessly naive.
Start exporting or competing with exports, is the other part of the equation, because Americans have no money and now that the losses have been socialized, neither does the government.
I looked up this waiver system at one point. Companies are only granted a waiver IF they can prove that their existing benefits give the workers an advantage over adopting Obamacare. Those waivers only last until the Exchange is set up. The waiver isn’t like a tax break, OK?
But Alpha is right. Imagine how many jobs would be created if companies didn’t have to bother with health insurance at all! Even a public option would free companies from that burden.
Contrary to popular opinion, stuff does not come from nowhere. I am not against a national healthcare program (though I am sure our government could run the worst system in the world). However, stuff like that has to be paid for, and when we exit this surreal period of borrow and spend, that will mean more taxation. More taxation does not result in more jobs in industry, not equal ones. It’s just math.
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Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-05-12 07:45:36
“It’s just math.”
Yes, it is just math. And the math shows that countries with universal health care spend less, TOTAL, on health care (ie it’s not shifted somewhere else- as many dissimulators imply).
Spending LESS, gives you more money to spend on other things, right? That’s how math works, right?
Simple. Basic. Math.
Comment by Blue Skye
2011-05-12 07:55:15
Maybe you are right about the cost, maybe not. Maybe it isn’t clear why the costs might be less. I still think that less benefits = more jobs. I’d rather have the benefits than the job though.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-05-12 07:59:43
“Maybe you are right about the cost, maybe not. Maybe it isn’t clear why the costs might be less. ”
Do you REALLY want me to drag out the immense amount of statistics that show almost every country in the world pays less in total health care than us, with many having much higher life expectancies, and much higher rates of satisfaction with their current systems? AGAIN?
And are you really unclear on why our system is so expensive- with the for-profit companies cherry-picking the healthiest for coverage, leaving the elderly and infirm for the government to take care of? Is that really a difficult concept to grasp?
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-05-12 08:08:06
More taxation does not result in more jobs in industry, not equal ones. It’s just math.
Math:
“Taxes”, corporate “expense” to provide health insurance, personal “expense” for health insurance, who cares what the name for the expense is? If taxes can provide better service for less money than the current personal or business expense then let’s face the facts, become objective, rational and apolitical and go with the taxes.
Let’s compare costs and results of other countries health-care taxes with America’s health-care expenses.
USA spends $7,540 per capita on health care and 1/3 of our population is uninsured or has joke insurance. Countries with socialized medicine spend about half per person but they cover everyone and have similar results.
Not only do countries with socialized medicine spend less than half of what we do and cover everyone BUT the companies in those countries do not have to worry about providing health-insurance, therefore do not face that barrier to expand or even start out.
“Socialized” medicine nurtures capitalism better than our broken and corrupt system however even as many of our fellow citizens die because of our system, a few do get a lot richer from it.
The three most important health-care graphs in the world
Don’t confus ethem with facts Rio. They are content to rearrange the chairs while the Titanic sinks.
Comment by Blue Skye
2011-05-12 10:27:19
I expect there are some reasons that our healthcare in the US is more expensive and, for the population as a whole, less effective. Reasons other than the lack of it being government run.
Comment by measton
2011-05-12 11:01:13
Blue skye you really need to back up your posts a bit better.
Reason’s other than lack of being gov run. Wrong Rio just pointed out that socialized and highly regulated systems are cheaper adn have comparable results. You go out and show a system that is completely free market that has better outcomes and costs less and get back to us.
Seriously you guys buy into this myth that corporations always do things more efficiently than gov. The problem is that corporations arent’ trying to be efficient at providing health care they are trying to be efficient by making a profit. They could care less about health care outcomes as long as the public is kept in the dark. The examples are endless.
1. Medicare costs tax payers 15-20% less than medicare advantage plans which are private plans designed to replace medicare. The VA is more efficient than either of these.
2. Socialized medicine in Canada, Europe, Japan costs 50% less than US and provides similar outcomes. Why because hospitals and doctors aren’t paid for doing unneeded proceedures, because they bargain with drug companies for lower costs and do cost benefit analysis, because they don’t spend 24 cents for every health care dollar on management and advertising.
It has everything to do with a non profit system or a highly regulated system.
Comment by measton
2011-05-12 11:04:42
More taxation does not result in more jobs in industry, not equal ones. It’s just math
Well it’s incomplete Math Blue Skye - As they say garbage in garbage out.
The bottom line is total costs per patient. It’s the combination of taxes and insurance and out of pocket costs not just taxes. The bottom line is these socialized medical delivery systems are MUCH cheaper and provide comparable outcomes.
So far your math and suspicions haven’t refuted that point.
Comment by Blue Skye
2011-05-12 11:21:37
“Blue skye you really need to back up your posts a bit better.”
I don’t see why, when most of the others in the conversation use insult as an argument. Some things merit rethinking from time to time. Some have never tried this exercise.
I do remember a time when medicine was not so much a for profit activity, and it worked fairly well compared to today. I have several ideas as to why, and none of them have to do with government running healthcare. This is not a forum for discussion, rather shouting down.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-05-12 11:33:35
“I have several ideas as to why, and none of them have to do with government running healthcare. This is not a forum for discussion, rather shouting down.”
So you’re posting to tell us it’s pointless to post here? And that you could give us some answers, but you won’t bother? LOL
Comment by LehighValleyGuy
2011-05-12 11:43:29
Ok, a few questions for you government-health-care weenies:
Does government have a magical ability to lower costs and improve quality in every industry, or only in health care?
If having the government in charge of health care is such a great idea, why not put it in charge of every other sector of the economy? Is this just one step towards imposing communism without calling it that?
If government can lower costs and improve service in health care, isn’t that a case of creating something for nothing?
If “simple basic math” shows that government produces better and cheaper health care than the free market, how is it that I majored in mathematics but cannot recall any professor saying that command and control economies create something for nothing? Actually they DO create something for nothing– for government bureaucrats at the expense of everyone else.
Is 78.3 years vs. 78.1 years a “much higher life expectancy”?
If government is so great at creating cheap, high quality goods and services, why aren’t FedEx and UPS bankrupt, while the USPS is generating large surplusses and helping to pay down the deficit?
If we spent more on housing in 2005 than other “developed” countries, does this mean we should have expanded Fannie and Freddie to increase government control over housing?
If a European country has higher gas prices than the US, should it then scrap its energy system and adopt ours instead?
Is there any such thing as a bubble in pricing of goods and services, and could such a phenomenon possibly account for differences in expenditures among countries?
Define “better”, “cheaper”, and “developed” in the context of your health-care mantra. Is Russia a “developed” country? Would you go there for health care? Or are these words like global warming/climate change, that mutate to fit the facts?
Are you admitting that government health care does not work well in “undeveloped” countries?
For that matter, define “health care”. Does it include acupuncture, massages, physical trainers, marriage counselling? Is the government going to give us better and cheaper versions of these things too?
Comment by Blue Skye
2011-05-12 12:02:48
I would bother, but it seems the minds of my friends here are made up on this one.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-05-12 12:32:44
Ok, a fewcombative, straw-man laden, hyperbolic, ideology driven, insulting and borderline moronic questions for you government-health-care weenies:proponents.
Fixed it as much as something like that could be.
But here lies some answers to rational questions on the debate:
The Health of Nations
How Europe, Canada, and our own VA do health care better.
Medicine may be hard, but health insurance is simple. The rest of the world’s industrialized nations have already figured it out, and done so without leaving 45 million of their countrymen uninsured and 16 million or so underinsured, and without letting costs spiral into the stratosphere and severely threaten their national economies.
Even better, these successes are not secret, and the mechanisms not unknown. Ask health researchers what should be done, and they will sigh and suggest something akin to what France or Germany does. Ask them what they think can be done, and their desperation to evade the opposition of the insurance industry and the pharmaceutical industry and conservatives and manufacturers and all the rest will leave them stammering out buzzwords and workarounds, regional purchasing alliances and health savings accounts. The subject’s famed complexity is a function of the forces protecting the status quo, not the issue itself.
Comment by Blue Skye
2011-05-12 12:39:32
LOL, I do wonder why those who can get it carry private health insurance so that they do not have to rely on rationed care, in Canada. Especially those dreaded public union folks. Insults and Experts abound, but familiarity, not so much.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-05-12 12:56:04
“If having the government in charge of health care is such a great idea, why not put it in charge of every other sector of the economy? ”
Maybe health care, like the military, shouldn’t be a business.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-05-12 12:56:09
LOL, I do wonder why those who can get it carry private health insurance so that they do not have to rely on rationed care, in Canada.
What the heck would you be laughing at? Basic Universal “socialist” coverage with the option to buy private supplemental coverage would be fantastic. France does it and is voted #1 in Healthcare by the World Health Organization.
Read the article I posted above; The Health of Nations
And the Canadian “rationing” talking point is B.S. The USA “rations” more than Canada.
From the article: Sadly for those invested in this odd knock against the Canadian system, the wait times are largely hype. A 2003 study found that the median wait time for elective surgeries in Canada was a little more than four weeks, while diagnostic tests took about three (with no wait times to speak of for emergency surgeries). By contrast, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development data from 2001 found that 32 percent of American patients waited more than a month for elective surgery, and 5 percent waited more than four months. That, of course, doesn’t count the millions of Americans who never seek surgery, or even the basic care necessary for a diagnosis, because they lack health coverage. If you can’t see a doctor in the first place, you never have to wait for treatment.
Next?
Comment by The_Overdog
2011-05-12 13:02:15
Does government have a magical ability to lower costs and improve quality in every industry, or only in health care?
——————–
magical no. Gov’t will also not improve quality of care across the board, but rather will level or even out the quality of care received between the poor and the wealthy. The wealthy might get worse care than they currently do, if they choose against having additional private coverage.
If having the government in charge of health care is such a great idea, why not put it in charge of every other sector of the economy?
————–
Depends on your opinion about health care. Is having access to health care a right or a privledge? In my opinion, gov’t should subsidize or provide rights and regulate privledges. How about a sports car?
If government can lower costs and improve service in health care, isn’t that a case of creating something for nothing?
———-
Not necessarily. They could redistribute it in a more efficient way (no 10X bill just for visiting the emergency room for example)
Is 78.3 years vs. 78.1 years a “much higher life expectancy”? No.
If we spent more on housing in 2005 than other “developed” countries, does this mean we should have expanded Fannie and Freddie to increase government control over housing?
==========
. Should owning a home be considered a right or a privledge? Gov’t should subsidize rights so that they are generally applied equally across the population, and regulate privledges.
If a European country has higher gas prices than the US, should it then scrap its energy system and adopt ours instead?
———————————–
Depends on your goals again. The price of oil is set in a global market, so any difference is price is due to gov’t regulation (and transport and refining costs to a minor degree). The EU considers driving a privledge and not a right, so they should charge whatever taxes they feel appropriate.
Comment by LehighValleyGuy
2011-05-12 13:17:33
This is not a forum for discussion, rather shouting down.
+1, Blue Skye. It’s quantity not quality- the same mindless propagandizing by the same bunch over and over. A year or so ago I offered to go over some specific case studies of medical treatment with Rio. He wasn’t interested. And I haven’t seen any of my questions above answered in the follow-ups.
Comment by oxide
2011-05-12 13:26:42
Comment by LehighValleyGuy
Ok, a few questions for you government-health-care weenies:
Does government have a magical ability to lower costs and improve quality in every industry, or only in health care?
Not health care. Health INSURANCE. Quality of insurance is based on pools sizes and risk, not on quality of the actual care. Because larger pools spread risk, and a whole country is the largest pool there is, then YES, government does have a magical avility to improve ability to pay.
And to relate health insurance to health care: better health insurance leads to better health care simply because doctors spend a lot less time and aggravation on getting their damn bills repaid. And more people can go for care, which is preventitive. Less stress overall is healthy in itself.
If having the government in charge of health care is such a great idea, why not put it in charge of every other sector of the economy? Is this just one step towards imposing communism without calling it that?
It’s what I said above. This is insurance. The virtue of government health insurance is in its pool size. In industries which produce products rather than insurance, then some form of competition produces the best products. This helps to answer questions below.
If government can lower costs and improve service in health care, isn’t that a case of creating something for nothing?
Yes. You are creating the improved insurance — and therefore improved care — simply by using the large risk pool WHICH ALREADY EXISTS. Yes, you are creating something from nothing. More accurately, you are creating something by removing a negative. (that negative being a patchwork of smaller pools.)
If “simple basic math” shows that government produces better and cheaper health care than the free market, how is it that I majored in mathematics but cannot recall any professor saying that command and control economies create something for nothing? Actually they DO create something for nothing– for government bureaucrats at the expense of everyone else.
Because all that fancy educatin’ didn’t teach you critical thinking.
Is 78.3 years vs. 78.1 years a “much higher life expectancy”?
What are you, a death panel?
If government is so great at creating cheap, high quality goods and services, why aren’t FedEx and UPS bankrupt, while the USPS is generating large surplusses and helping to pay down the deficit?
Again, because government provides INSURANCE, not widgets or standardized services.
If we spent more on housing in 2005 than other “developed” countries, does this mean we should have expanded Fannie and Freddie to increase government control over housing?
You conveniently leave out that during your time frame, Fannie/Freddie were a private entity that failed. You also leave out too-big-to-fail and other financial shenanigans that do not happen in health insurance.
Also note that government health insurance will NOT be an expansion. You’re just sewing a bunch of already existing patchwork pieces onto one quilt so that the pieces are easier to keep track of. The size of the whole will not change. If anything, it will shrink a little.
If a European country has higher gas prices than the US, should it then scrap its energy system and adopt ours instead?
I’m surprised they haven’t.
Is there any such thing as a bubble in pricing of goods and services, and could such a phenomenon possibly account for differences in expenditures among countries?
The housing bubble was created because people sold loans up the food chain. As far as I know, nobody was selling healthy people up a food chain. And if Europe managed to avoid a health-care cost bubble, then we should take tips from them, instead of pretending that “we have the best health care system in the world.”
Also keep in mind that the US historically has the most infrastructure as a modern society, which allowed us to spend the most on cutting edge research. If your country still can’t get toilets to everyone, you tend not to invent double bypasses. Cutting edge is not expensive because of a price bubble. Cutting edge is expensive because there is a low success rate for proof of concepts, and concepts which were proven haven’t been automated or optimized. It’s easy to for other countries to look efficient when they buy a finished optimized procedure off the shelf instead of inventing it.
Define “better”, “cheaper”, and “developed” in the context of your health-care mantra. Is Russia a “developed” country? Would you go there for health care? Or are these words like global warming/climate change, that mutate to fit the facts?
In government’s view of For the People, “better” is reaching more people with basic care, not reaching the rich with more expensive care. “Cheaper” comes from less profit for the CEO’s. Hell, knocking out the lobbyists alone will probably save hundreds of lives.
Are you admitting that government health care does not work well in “undeveloped” countries?
You are confusing government health CARE with government health INSURANCE. The US still has a good health care structure. They just need a better payment system. Also, consider that “undeveloped” countries tend to have undeveloped and uncaring oligarchies who don’t much care about the health of the poor. If they don’t want the people to be healthy, the people won’t be healthy, even if the dictator’s manse is made out of enough gold to pay for it. Bad health care for the masses is part of the definition of “undeveloped.”
For that matter, define “health care”. Does it include acupuncture, massages, physical trainers, marriage counselling? Is the government going to give us better and cheaper versions of these things too?
See my insurance comments above.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-05-12 13:48:46
A year or so ago I offered to go over some specific case studies of medical treatment with Rio. He wasn’t interested. And I haven’t seen any of my questions above answered in the follow-ups. LehighValleyGuy
Get over yourself LehighValleyGuy. I’ve provided links to countless independent studies, articles, facts, figures, comparisons and analysis supporting universal healthcare, proving my points, answering your questions and addressing the issue. You have not. You have never shown studies, facts and figures supporting the argument that USA’s health-care system is superior overall. Never. Why? Because you can’t. Do you understand my statements? Do you understand the meanings? Does the truth in my statements mean I am “shouting you down” or calling you names?
I even posted two links today supporting my position and answering your “questions”. You have not.
Most of your combative, straw-man laden, hyperbolic, ideology driven, name calling and insulting questions were answered in the two links I presented today. I suggest you read them and look at the numbers objectively.
This is not a forum for discussion, rather shouting down. Blue Skye
I did no shouting at you Blue Skye. If you call being proven wrong by facts, figures and studies being “shouted down”, that’s your and LehighValleyGuy’s deal not mine.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-05-12 13:57:06
oxide
Excellent answers to LehighValleyGuy’s marginal questions oxide. You have patience.
But I doubt ideology driven people will consider them objectively when they don’t even objectively consider the math on the subject.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-05-12 14:07:49
I hate to ‘high-five’ one of the ‘usual suspects’, but- Great answers, Oxide!
Thanks for emphasizing the important difference between health care and health insurance- an important point.
Comment by LehighValleyGuy
2011-05-12 15:21:10
I’m going to try to address the few substantive responses that I see here. You guys have proven two things: 1) you get very angry when your religion is challenged, 2) you have a lot more time on your hands than I do.
Not health care. Health INSURANCE. Quality of insurance is based on pools sizes and risk
Then by that logic the government should also have a monopoly on life insurance and property and casualty insurance. Aren’t those basic needs too? If someone dies w/o life insurance, or loses a house in a fire w/o homeowner’s insurance, don’t people then become a burden on others?
The housing bubble was created because people sold loans up the food chain.
Put another way, government policy allowed and encouraged people to buy stuff without paying out their own money. This is also what has happened in health care, with the constant policy emphasis on “third-party payors.”. From the HMO Act of 1973 onward, government incentives have been given for insurers, reducing or eliminating individuals’ need to budget for expenses. Government insurance of course makes this problem even worse, because government is even less responsive to market conditions than are corporations.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-05-12 15:52:56
You guys have proven two things: 1) you get very angry when your religion is challenged,
1. It’s not our religion. Religion cannot be proved or disproved by studies, logic or math. However universal health care being cheaper, more comprehensive and superior for the majority of populations can be proven, as we have, by studies, logic and math.
2) you have a lot more time on your hands than I do.
That is inconsequential to the argument. More time would not help you prove your position because in the face of studies, logic and math, your position is untenable.
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-05-12 17:03:20
To Rio, the best rebuttal & dialog “statesman” on the HBB blog!
x3 cheers!
Comment by oxide
2011-05-12 17:03:50
Then by that logic the government should also have a monopoly on life insurance and property and casualty insurance. Aren’t those basic needs too? If someone dies w/o life insurance, or loses a house in a fire w/o homeowner’s insurance, don’t people then become a burden on others?
Government DOES provide life insurance, in the form of Social Security. Kids whose parents die are given SS until they are 18. Widows collect their spouse’s SS. Casualty insurance is covered by Medicaid or SS disability if necessary. Other forms of casualty are generally low-risk, not “needed” or not so expensive. Car insurance isn’t that expensive because the replacement cost for a car is limited.
Fire insurance is a much lower risk because so few houses burn down, so it is not necessary to have such a large risk pool. If we knew all that everybody’s house would eventually burn down the way we know we’re all going to get sick, then yes, you probably need at least state-wide fire insurance. By the way, for other natural disasters, government DOES provide insurance. There is a public option for hurricane insurance in Florida. And for every Administration who is headed by someone with a name that is not George W. Bush, FEMA is a sort of insurance too.
The housing bubble was created because people sold loans up the food chain.
Put another way, government policy allowed and encouraged people to buy stuff without paying out their own money. This is also what has happened in health care, with the constant policy emphasis on “third-party payors.”. From the HMO Act of 1973 onward, government incentives have been given for insurers, reducing or eliminating individuals’ need to budget for expenses. Government insurance of course makes this problem even worse, because government is even less responsive to market conditions than are corporations.
All this evil “government” activity that you are shouting about was perpetrated by REPUBLICANS and their lobbyist corporate paymasters; I would hardly call it good governance. You’re letting Republicans give the “government” umbrella a bad name and then throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-05-12 18:05:28
Down goes Frazier!
Sheesh- I haven’t such an arse-whoopin’ since ‘heavyweight’ meant something.
Sorry, Lehigh- You floated like a bee, and stung like a butterfly.
All kinds of theories out there, and all lead to a dead end/non-solution. We live in a two-party Fascist Dictatorship. Nuff said.
We had to drop our individual Kaiser coverage effective June 1st.
We’re in a health insurance crisis with 78M Baby Boomers aging. How many of them are in good health? Can we write off a health credit for using our treadmill daily?
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Comment by In Colorado
2011-05-12 08:31:03
And I remember when Kaiser was considered the “dirt cheap” insurance.
“We’re in a health insurance crisis with 78M Baby Boomers aging”
Once they run out of money (sell the house, empty the 401K, etc.) they can just go into a corner, curl up and die. They’re only serfs after all.
We get critiqued here in Canada about our health care maybe taking a couple of months before a major operation can be scheduled.
Funny thing - we doooo get the operation and good quality of care to go along with it.
If I lived in the states and had insurance would it cover me? Without insurance could I afford it?
Comment by aragonzo
2011-05-12 23:26:00
How long is the waiting list for a person with no insurance? It is until you can afford to pay or until you die.
Canada rations its health care but allocates based on threat to life. If you happen to have a life threatening condition, you don’t wait. If you have a need for an elective treatment, you wait until there is a slot available. Not perfect, but pretty good at keeping the population healthy enough to pay taxes.
It was earlier than usually, but fast food places hire more for the summer season. Then in the fall the hours will probably get cut. For part-time employees, there may not be enough hours a day to make the drive worthwhile.
Obama Tells Companies to ‘Step Up’ and Hire Workers
Echoes of FDR.
In the end he had to have the government create jobs.
(Wiki)
The Works Progress Administration (renamed during 1939 as the Work Projects Administration; WPA) was the largest New Deal agency, employing millions to carry out public works projects, including the construction of public buildings and roads, and operated large arts, drama, media, and literacy projects. It fed children and redistributed food, clothing, and housing. Almost every community in the United States had a park, bridge or school constructed by the agency, which especially benefited rural and Western populations. Expenditures from 1936 to 1939 totaled nearly $7 billion.[1] The budget at the outset of the WPA in 1935 was 1.4 billion dollars. It provided work for three million “employables” at this time, however there were an estimated 10 million unemployed persons at this time.[2] By 1943, the total amount spent was over $11 billion.[3]
A VAT tax and oil tax a cut in payroll tax and tax breaks for manufacturing and gov spending on infrastructure and energy efficiency would have done a much better job of fixing our economy than handing piles of printed cash to the richest 1% and then lending them money and letting them manipulate markets with speculation.
Less than 1 fire a month. Over $2 million in pay/benefits and pensions per year. Insane work rules.
We have come to the point with public unions that it would be cheaper to let houses burn to the gorund and rebuild them new than to pay for a fire department.
And this is a town of about 10,000. Multiply by 100-1000 for other cities in the state.
————————
Town Firemen Do Ten Total Fires and $30K in Average Overtime Each
Michigan Capitol Confidential | 5/12/2011 | Tom Gantert
There are nine firefighters working for the Superior Township fire department. And all were paid more in 2010 than the supervisor, thanks to an average of $29,662 per person of overtime.
It wasn’t because of an unusually high amount of fires. Superior Township had 10 structure fires in 2010. Instead, it’s because anytime any firefighter takes a vacation or misses a day of work, his spot is automatically filled using overtime due to what is referred to in the industry as “minimum staffing.”
Superior Township Supervisor William McFarlane made $73,603 in 2010, according to financial documents released by the township. The nine firefighters’ pay in 2010 ranged from $76,623 to $97,579. One firefighter took home $44,016 in overtime.
So you will be hiring your own private fire dept, 2banana?
Just FYI after you turn off your neocon brainwash channels for the days, most fire depts in this country are voluntary or indy small towns units without unions.
But feel free to hire your own fire dept and then you better hope those $12hr firefighters have had good training.
If they did not put out a fire, would it spread to the whole neighborhood? My guess is that a lot of house fires are total losses and they are not expecting to save the house that is on fire. They do expect to save the one next door.
In much of the Western US, summer is fire season. Some fires don’t die out until the fall rains come. What would be the effect of letting fires burn in Los Angeles or San Diego on a fine summer day?
Condo prices here in Salinas have crashed in many areas. Problem going forward, how many will be owner occupied and how many will be rentals. What will be HOA fees and will rental units be paying up.
Housing pricing is still being inflated on the books and asking prices. Usually in the area of $200K or more over appraisal. Found a RE who can track any house and tell me if the owner is underwater and what houses in the neighborhood is selling for. RE says to wait probably two years for best pricing in best neighborhood.
My favorite stat now is the length of time on the market, which many RE’s are now trying to hide, and the number of viewings per time on the market. Most RE’s do not put for sale signs out to make buyers think the market is just fine. There are some great houses in San Juan Bautista, but the area is gated (fees), sits right on the fault line and 13 out of 14 houses to come on the market are in foreclosure.
Headed off the 101 toward Hollister on the south side (opposite the town of San Juan Bautista). Are on 1/2 acre, 2500 sq.ft. and larger, some with mother-in-law quarters. As I recall HOA fees around $240 a month.
I checked some past listings:
152 via vaquero sur, san juan bautista
6/24/2004 sold $804,500
1/20/2010 sold $588,800
2/24/2011 sold $515,00
Fees $242 month
5 bed/4bath/3611 sq.ft.
Property tax $7006/year
Second listing:187 el circulo del real, SJB
sold 2/17/2006 $1,450,000
sold 3/20/2011 $1,115,856 (public record)
listed active 4/26/2011 @ $612K
6bed/5bath/4746sq.ft.($129/sq.ft)/1/2acre lot
Comment by The_Overdog
2011-05-12 13:15:45
sold 3/20/2011 $1,115,856 (public record)
listed active 4/26/2011 @ $612K
———-
By what mechanism would someone buy a home in March and re-list it in April at half price? Something with the way the gov’t records short sales?
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-05-12 13:19:51
By what mechanism would someone buy a home in March and re-list it in April at half price? Something with the way the gov’t records short sales?
I think this happens with REO’s. Anyone?
Comment by The_Overdog
2011-05-12 13:20:46
Second listing:187 el circulo del real, SJB
listed active 4/26/2011 @ $612K
6bed/5bath/4746sq.ft.($129/sq.ft)/1/2acre lot
——–
Also just for fun computing the CA/near-a-beach adjustment: Where I live, this house would be $450k with $11k in taxes per year.
Comment by Rental Watch
2011-05-12 16:44:55
If it was foreclosed upon, the credit bid by the bank may have been for the debt amount of $1,115,856. So it may show up as a sale at that price, regardless of market value.
Construction has stopped on the golf course that Tiger Woods designed for an upscale community near Asheville. Only 42 lots sold out of over 1,000 platted, and only one house completed since the community opened with great fanfare in 2007.
“Last month the Greenville (S.C.) News reported that (the developer, Jim) Anthony was negotiating with a lender to avoid foreclosure on 100 Cliffs properties in S.C. on a $20 million note that had a $17 million balance.
“After an incredible run of success with his early Cliffs ventures — really good, playable courses that spared no expense with maintenance and amenities for those wealthy enough to live there — it looks like Anthony has run out of luck and money.
“And just like the can’t miss partner he hooked up with at High Carolina, the future looks much less promising for a pair who appear to have peaked in their professional careers.”
Here in AZ, there are more than a few cases where the well-heeled retirees find themselves less well off after one of them (and I’m referring to couples here) experiences an expensive final illness. The surviving spouse then gets a harsh lesson in frugal living.
Bill, I’ve been doing my research on the W NC/SC areas and it has been most interesting and informative. I am actually shocked, I tell you, shocked by how much cheaper it is to rent than to buy, at least in the Asheville area. Greenville is a bit different. But the price of buying a halfway decent home in the Asheville area (western North Carolina in general) seems rather high, compared to West Central Florida, at this point in time. Rents, however, range from being comparable to bargain priced.
Utilities? Wowie! I complain about power here during the summer. Not even close to what people pay about seven months of the year in Western NC. Outrageous. And all those hybrid heating systems. Heat pumps, but those are only effective down to a certain temp. Then, there’s oil heat. Or propane. Or “gas logs”, whatever those are, I have no idea. Electric baseboard heat. Solar. And, as a last resort, the trusty wood burning stoves.
Western NC raw land prices seem to be cheaper per acre than West Central Florida, improved land is a different story, though. And “structures” seem to be more expensive in Western NC. Of course, lots tend to be larger, although I’m sure some of that acreage is not usable even for parking.
It’s puzzling to me why prices for homes are so much higher in the mountains of western NC. Hendersonville, Cashiers, Highlands, Brevard to name a few were well out of our range when we looked in 2005.
We have a heat pump system for our house, with electric resistance backup. Not being in the mountains, we’ve only had maybe six or eight nights in six winters where the temp got below 20 degrees overnight and the heat pump was running constantly, with the resistance heat cycling on and off, by morning. Where we are, the “normal” winter sees about 10 nights where the temp drops below 30, and zero days where the daytime temp doesn’t get into the 40s. Modern heat pumps work just fine in that environment. Electricity here is about 8.5 cents per KWH. No gas, so electric is our only energy bill.
Daffodils open in late January, the dogwoods and Azaleas bloom in March to early April, and the trees are leafed out by mid April. We’re already getting day lily blooms. I get the boat serviced in late March ‘cuz the recreational boating season kicks in by late April. The fishermen are out there year ’round of course.
Here’s an example: asking $669K for 2300sq.ft. built in 1986. Added to site 29 days ago and 150 total view. Taxes in 2010, assessed value $360,225 (fair value) was $3994. At the current asking pricing taxes would be estimated to be $557.50 per month, and the mortgage payment with 20% down would be $3934 per month. Bottom line is we still have a lot of label chasers thinking that property like this will only go back up, but the good thing is they don’t qualify for the loans.
That’s a really cool tool, but it doesn’t take utilities into account on the rental side (I added that to rent) or condo/HOA fees on the buying side. They also think that utilities in a house are ~$100 a month. They also don’t take into account location, trading up or buying drapes and furniture. Sure, if you go from renting a big house to buying a cheap condo, buying is better. But if you want to move from an apartment to a single-family home, the calculator says that you need to stay in the home for 16 years for it to pencil out. Don’t forget the rental increase slider…
Even when I lived in Ohio in 2008, my rent was $700 a month cheap and didn’t go up. My little dream houses were listed at $150K. Even then the break-even point was 16 years. Good thing I kept my mobility.
There is a button to click for advanced settings that lets you mess around with other numbers like how much the house will cost on average in maintenance.
I played around with it, assuming the $350K asking price for the condo that I mentioned earllier in the week and my current rent with 3% increases for rent. No matter what I did, I ended up with it being cheaper to rent for at least 17 years and once it went up to 31 years (I think that one assumed 0% increase on the condo price). I have to admit, I didn’t try plugging in 5% increases in the home value every year or anything like that. Didn’t even consider needing to park at Metro station at the other place and not really needing a car at all in my current place.
Go look up one of the top money contributors to the democrat party.
I will give you the answer to make it easy in your google search
Trial Lawyers.
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Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2011-05-12 11:07:10
I don’t find that to be unexpected in the least. (Now you’re throwing the red-herrings)
Nor is it the point. The Rs ran on a campaign of tort reform. Personally, I think it was brilliant strategy. Get millions of people to think lawyers are our biggest problem. (”And these two lawyers want to run our COUNTRY! The horror!”)
But it was still a red-herring. What legislation was enacted to combat supposedly the biggest threat to the country?
Comment by measton
2011-05-12 11:12:39
Yes it will be a grand world when companies build exploding pinto’s and don’t have to worry about regulation or law suits. When corporations can lie to their share holders and not worry about the law or lawyers. When toxic waste can be dumped right into a towns water supply without the worry that you’ll have to pay for it. When doctors can go play golf while you are dieing in the hospital or show up drunk to the OR w/o fear.
That’s the utopia 2banana dreams of.
I’m all for cappying the lawyers and plaintiffs take to damages plus x % but doing away with lawsuits is a mistake.
Comment by 2banana
2011-05-12 11:20:29
I’m all for cappying the lawyers and plaintiffs take to damages plus x % but doing away with lawsuits is a mistake.
No one is talking banning lawsuits. Reform the system to something sane like the universal health care europeans have.
Like loser pays. Cap on punitive damages. Cap on lawyer fees.
And trial lawyers have fought these reforms tooth and nail and none have passed on the federal level.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-05-12 11:41:21
Reform the system to something sane like the universal health care europeans have.
Like loser pays. Cap on punitive damages. Cap on lawyer fees.
I would agree to all of those in exchange for European style universal health-care.
Comment by 2banana
2011-05-12 11:47:58
I raise the deal for allowing European speedos on men at all pools/beaches…
Comment by Steve J
2011-05-12 11:59:17
The loser pays system will come into law in Texas in some cases next year.
Comment by In Colorado
2011-05-12 13:35:45
I raise the deal for allowing European speedos on men at all pools/beaches…
I never knew there was a law against that.
Comment by oxide
2011-05-12 13:41:35
“Tort reform” was another rallying cry during the health care debate. When the Republicans took the House, I thought, great. They can pass a standalone bill to reform tort, and another standalone bill to “sell health insurance over state lines.” They can add that to Obamacare and see if the numbers pencil out any better.
Well we know how THAT turnedout. Rather than put their money where their mouths were, all we got was repeal repeal repeal and replace with… privatized Medicare!
Comment by oxide
2011-05-12 13:44:06
I raise the deal for allowing European speedos on men at all pools/beaches…
Somehow you go from $200,000/year public union lifeguards with 90% pensions to living in a cardboard box and subsisting on a bowl of rice a day.
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Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-05-12 12:36:54
from $200,000/year public union lifeguards with 90% pensions
Now, now slipperybanana, you forgot to mention these are NEWPORT BEACH, CA lifeguards, and where do they get the money for their $alarie$? The poor, poor, $uffering wealthie$. Oh, then “The Unreal Housewives of “The O.C.!” Yell!/Scream/Holler!… Help I’m drowning, save me, my husband just paid $35,000 ca$h for these (pick-a-size: DD-E-F-FF-G-GG-H-HH-J-JJ-K-KK-L) matching pairs! Help city-peon person!, Help!
Comment by In Colorado
2011-05-12 13:40:42
“Somehow you go from $200,000/year public union lifeguards”
I thought it was established already that Newport Lifeguards are paid $20/hr, and that it was the head honcho with a desk at city hall who got the big payout (not saying he deserves it, but lifeguards in Newport Beach are not paid 200K).
“to living in a cardboard box and subsisting on a bowl of rice a day”
Are you saying that people aren’t living like that?
Yes, people have been throwing some hyperbole at your expense, but you have brought it upon yourself everytime you champion the cause for lower wages (or as you like to call it “right to work”).
Comment by ecofeco
2011-05-12 15:36:42
Somehow, bananarama you go from one single lifeguard who is actually the director, to many.
You are a liar. WAIT! You must be a realtor! THAT’S IT! DOH!
We’re being lied to and played for suckers by capitalists who send our jobs to communists countries and tell us to blame unions which only account for 12% of the entire workforce.
Evidently, the U.S. is in the same position with respect to the Missisippi River that it is with the fallout from the housing bubble. Does it let nature take its course and adapt, or try to stop the deluge?
“The Old River Control Structure was designed to maintain the bulk of the river’s flow on its current path through Baton Rouge and New Orleans. But over the past thousands of years, the river has naturally sprouted dozens of channels throughout southern Louisiana, including the Atchafalaya River, currently an outflow of the Mississippi at Red River Landing.”
“In just the past 50 years, the Atchafalaya has gradually “stolen” almost a third of the flow, and many experts consider it inevitable that the Atchafalaya will become the next pathway to the Gulf for the Mississippi.”
“We’re literally holding the river in its present course against its will. Eventually, that will have to change one way or another. According to experts, the shift will most likely happen during a major spring flood after the Corps of Engineers runs out of other options to divert water.”
“Should this highly engineered system of dams and diversions at Red River Landing fail this week (its most significant test since its creation), the Mississippi River would quickly and permanently change course to the Atchafalaya.”
“The impact would soon be felt around the world. In terms of tonnage, the two ports near New Orleans are by far the largest in the world — processing more than 200 million tons of combined trade last year and accounting for one-sixth of our nation’s export value. This is also one of the few major ports in the U.S. with a positive trade balance.”
If we put America 1st in the priority category I think it can happen….How would two trillion of borrowed money pissed away in the mid-east have been able to improve the lot of the average american if invested here ??
Now scdave, Chinaglobalmaterialaquistionshipsquadron is very happy with the work America’s Military expenditure$ are doing to keep sea passages open & safe for global free-trade. They are however, quite pissed that they have to pay premium price$ on every barrel of oil from the middle-east Kingdoms.
I agree with it completely but I think we have to recognize that if you believe in peak oil, while we have no viable alternative maintaining oil supply is taking care of the country.
For instance, what’s going on with Japan and their economy while their energy supply has been compromised? Virtually a news blackout on that subject. Hard to separate the yen number from the impact of the catastrophes themselves but the damage is ongoing as multiple nuclear plants remain offline long term. We’ve had shift workers sent home on our shores due to the ramifications of what’s going on in Japan regarding lack of energy.
“How would two trillion of borrowed money pissed away in the mid-east have been able to improve the lot of the average american if invested here ??”
You could have improved things a lot if invested properly or even better, not spent at all. But you couldn’t have invested a $1.25 any better than the $1.25 that was spent on the bullet the Navy Seal fired last week.
It has been going on for years. It is just adults playing at being children again. Plus the satisfaction of getting to eat “the whole thing.” You generally don’t have to share a cupcake.
And, speaking as one who once weighed a good bit more than I do now, food doesn’t force itself into one’s mouth. It has to be put there.
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Comment by MrBubble
2011-05-12 17:32:17
Sorry, but the red velvet cupcake at Susie Cakes is pretty good. Got one for myself and two mochas for my wife on her b-day. She only had one! And I’m rocking 12 miles per day on the bike. 22 today — Bike to Work Day was excellent.
Funny though how many single occupancy vehicles passed me going into the city. When will they ever learn? Ugh, the Kingston Trio song just ear-wormed me…
Now Drummy will respond that the elite don’t control gov but the graph speaks volumes. Combine that graph with the one I posted yesterday showing the falling percentage of taxes corporations pay as a % of GDP and you get the real story.
Now we jsut need a graph that shows how the middle class has been paying a higher and higher percentage of the total gov tax.
Throw in the inflation tax and things are probably much worse for the fixed income fixed wage slobs in the US.
“An Indian swami once lived for a year on a single bowl of rice- hence, anything more than that, especially for the non-productive (who will, of course, never be productive), is waste- and I refuse to pay for it.
Actually, now that I think about it, I won’t pay for the bowl of rice, either.”
Personal attacks are inappropriate. Especially when you put words in his mouth. I like hearing what he has to say, even when I disagree with him. If we want to have any chance of working toward consensus, we have to be willing to listen to each other.
I used the argument Klein is using to debate a friend who posted a pic that detailed how the top 1% are paying the same in taxes as the bottom 95%. (This was the libertarian union firefighter I described a few months back)
All I had to ask was, “Given that we know which way effective tax rates have trended the past 30 years for the top 1%, what is this graph really saying?” His graph wasn’t long for this world.
I’ll never understand why people that have NO chance to become 1%-ers feel the need to subsidize them.
(Cheney-Shrub SEC “enforcer” Crissy Cox must feel safe hangin’ down on 10th St in Balboa., might step on jelly-fish. Iffin’ you own a home in Newport Beach, you figure they use property tax money for these salaries?, the wealthie$ must be full of “TrueAnger™” and $uffering $uch un$peakable agony…)
O.C.’s $200K lifeguards spark international shock:
May 12th, 2011, by Jeff Overley / OC Register
Closer to home, one Orlando blogger said this: “Lifeguards in Orange County’s Newport Beach are earning $200,000 or more a year for the rescue work on beaches where botox, breast implants and cosmetic surgery are rampant.”
The lifeguards in question are part of a 13-person management team; by contrast, the towers are staffed by 200 or so seasonal guards who make about $20 an hour, give or take.
For one, Newport isn’t alone. Huntington Beach in 2009 paid a dozen lifeguard supervisors (known as “marine safety” officers and lieutenants) more than $100,000 in salary. Specifically, they took home anywhere from $110,000 to $162,000, not counting benefits.
They receive the same pension plan as their Newport Beach counterparts – retire at 50 and get 90 percent of salary each year for life, assuming 30 years of service.
Newport actually compares favorably. In 2010, it paid eight lifeguard supervisors more than $100,000; specifically, their salaries were from $101,000 to $149,000, not counting benefits.
In both cities, overtime pay was a big factor, often reaching into the tens of thousands of dollars.
I’ll bet that a lot of those $20/hr lifeguards put in their time hoping that someday they might be able to grab the brass ring and join management and them make the big bucks.
Not all that different from the private sector when you think about it. Once upon a time supervisors and managers were only paid a fraction more than their subordinates.
This concept hit me over the head when Fiorina collected $40M+ when leaving HP after laying off gobs and gobs of people, many who I knew in Corvallis and I’m sure you knew in Loveland.
Shortly afterward, this specifically led to my selection of a mutual fund where the CEO was explicit in his emails about not making a certain amount more than his lowest paid employee. Made sense to me, and I’ve tried to base buying decisions on companies that embrace this “socialist” behavior ever since…
Bernanke Cautions Against Using Debt Limit as ‘Bargaining Chip’
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke cautioned lawmakers against using the federal debt limit as a “bargaining chip” during budget talks, saying such moves could provoke market instability and harm the economy.
~ It’s about time to start stringing these fear mongering thieving bastards up, IMO. Of course congress just loves the printer.
Yo gubmint at work,low,low rates, but where are all those savvy buyers?
U.S. Mortgage Rates Fall to Five-Month Low (Bloomberg)
Mortgage rates in the U.S. decreased for a fourth week, sending borrowing costs to the lowest level since December.
The average rate for a 30-year loan dropped to 4.63 percent in the week ended today from 4.71 percent, according to Freddie Mac. That is the lowest since the week ended Dec. 9. The 15-year rate slipped to 3.82 percent from 3.89 percent a week ago, the McLean, Virginia-based mortgage-finance company said.
Falling rates helped drive demand for mortgages last week and encouraged homeowners to reduce their monthly payments. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s measure of refinancing rose 9 percent in the week ended May 6, the biggest increase in two months. Purchase applications climbed 6.7 percent, the Washington-based group said yesterday.
“Housing is more affordable than it was in several decades,” said Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “On the other hand, the number of people who can qualify for these great rates isn’t that large.”
Banks are ‘hounding borrowers to suicide’
High Court chief breaks silence to highlight crisis of personal debt
By Dearbhail McDonald and Tim Healy May 12 2011
BANKS are driving some borrowers who can not pay their debts to suicide, the Master of the High Court warned last night.
Ed Honohan, brother of Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan, told the Irish Independent he decided to speak out against the banks and other creditors because he had dealt with several debt cases where the borrowers had subsequently taken their own lives.
He added that he also decided to speak out as many borrowers who can not repay their loans, such as mortgages, credit cards and personal loans, are being pursued by banks who have already written off the debts.
This was leading to “meaningless accountancy exercises” that were driving some people to suicide, he said.
In an extraordinary intervention on the deepening debt crisis, Mr Honohan strongly criticised banks and other creditors for pursuing “to the bitter end” debtors who cannot pay judgment mortgages.
Banks are still required to chase debts and maximise recovery from borrowers even if they have written them off in their books.
Mr Honohan, a barrister, said most of the debt cases arose due to circumstances beyond the control of borrowers — because the economy shut down as a result of the banking collapse.
He criticised the banks as he called for the updating of legislation to protect people unable to pay debts and to introduce a level of “debt forgiveness”.
He said there had been a surge not only in mortgage cases but also instances where banks had chased borrowers for personal loans and then sought for judgments to be registered against family homes.
“We can not wait for 18 months before the Government introduces new personal insolvency laws,” Mr Honohan said. He was referring to the March 2012 deadline imposed by the EU/IMF for reform of our outdated debtor’s laws.
Borrowers might think they are “outlaws in uncharted territory”, he said, but stressed that even members of the “new debt set” have legal rights.
Well, isn’t that special? People have wondered why the Irish have sort of caved in to the banks, well, they’ve been conditioned over the centuries by the Brit financial and government institutions. They’ve been conditioned to think they’re a lazy, drunken, stupid people and that they deserve the lash, both literally and figuratively.
Rather than fight back like Iceland, they’ve accepted their “punishment”. Rather than stick it up Britain’s butt, like Mexico does ours, these poor people just take it.
Palmy’s heart breaks to hear these things. I am descended from the “speckled ones”.
Filed under: “I wanna be the next: “I’m-The-Decider!” for this American Nation…or…”Suprise! Suprise! Suprise Mr. Carter, Shazams!”
Few Surprised s’Trump University’ Is Sued for Fraud:
By Ujala Sehgal May 07, 2011 / The Atlantic Wire
“sTrump University,” that promises mentorships that are “the next best thing” to being sTrump’s apprentice. So far, over 11,000 people have attended, reports Marcus Baram.
However, the for-profit institution is now the target of a class-action lawsuit in federal court and the attorneys general of six states are investigating numerous complaints about it, including Texas, where the Trump Organization ultimately decided not to conduct any seminars.
The lead plaintiff in the class action, Tarla Makaeff, alleges that Trump University’s mentors and associates “guide students toward deals in which they have a personal financial interest at stake — creating a severe conflict of interest, so that the mentors profit while the student does not.” Another plaintiff said the seminar promised access to “exclusive” property listings, but he found the listings elsewhere online for a fraction of the cost.
News of the lawsuit has not exactly shocked the media. Gothamist titled its report of the story: “Trump University Shockingly Sued For Trump-ness” and marveled at Makaeff’s “straight-faced” quote to the New York Daily News that she “relied on the Trump name and Donald Trump’s reputation as a real estate mogul. I expected nothing less than the best… Big mistake.” Gawker reacted to the lawsuit, “Swindled by Donald Trump! Imagine that!”
Roy Oppenheim Announces Real Estate Talk Show: From the Trenches
Join leading Florida Foreclosure Defense Attorney Roy Oppenheim and special guests CBS4 Chief Investigative Reporter Stephen Stock and Florida real estate developer Patrick Sessions in the first episode of Oppenheim’s new talk show reviewing the Florida real estate saga past, present and future; The first episode of From The Trenches will play on Oppenheim Law’s YouTube Channel starting Thursday May 12, 2011
Just before Labor Day weekend in 2008, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation sent out a news release announcing that Integrity Bank in Alpharetta was being shut down by regulators.
That was the beginning of a tsunami — caused by the bursting of the real estate bubble — that has swept away a large portion of Georgia’s banking institutions. In the 32 months since Integrity Bank collapsed, the FDIC has shut down 60 other state banks, largely because of bad loans made to developers and contractors.
When the wave of failures began in 2008, there were about 300 banks chartered to do business in Georgia. In less than three years, 20 percent of those banks, 1 in every 5, have failed.
Pipeline- AmericanBanker
A roundup of credit market news and views
By Kate Berry and Alex Ulam
Rough Appraisal
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has accused Lender Processing Services Inc. of Jacksonville, Fla., and CoreLogic Inc. of Santa Ana, Calif., of causing $283.5 million of damages to the former Washington Mutual Inc. for failing to provide oversight of appraisal.
The agency filed a 118-page suit Tuesday against LPS for $154.5 million that says 220 appraisals performed between 2006 and 2008 contained “multiple egregious violations” of industry standards, while less than 4% conformed with professional appraisal standards.
An LPS subsidiary, LSI Appraisal LLC, engaged in improper licensing of appraisers, failed to perform site visits, used improper or unsupported comparisons of properties, failed to take into account declining housing prices and tied compensation or employment to appraisal results, according to the suit.
The FDIC, as the receiver of Washington Mutual, alleges that the losses “were a direct and proximate result” of work done by LPS.
In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday, LPS responded to the allegations, claiming that other entities provided the full appraisals on 75% of the appraisals reviewed by the FDIC.
LPS said in the filing that it “believes that any loan losses are not because of appraisal issues, but are due to the quality of underwriting by Wamu, borrowers defaulting and the weakness of the economy after the loans were made, among other factors.”
The FDIC filed a separate suit Tuesday that seeks $129 million from CoreLogic, claiming it found negligence in Corelogic’s eAppraiseIT unit after a review of 194 appraisals performed in 2006 and 2007. CoreLogic said in an SEC filing that 85% of the loans cited by the FDIC involved “desk reviews” that do not require an interior or exterior inspection by the reviewer, and that desk reviews “are more limited in scope than full appraisals.”.
Living somewhere is always going to involve costs, just as education, health care and food involve costs. Financially, the decision to buy is basically a decision that your investment will increase in value by an amount sufficient to make up for all the additional costs of buying. (Put it this way: you’d never buy an apartment if you were staying in a city for just a week, in an effort to build equity. You’d rent — a hotel room.)
Sometimes — often — the decision to buy works out. But it does not work out far more often than is commonly understood.
Ugh, DH just came home and told me another depressing buyer story. (He’s got a friend in the business.) Kid who bought a $300k home is 25, married w/no money of his own but Dad is President/owner of a local company and just built his own million dollar place in town. Dad bought him the 3000+ sq footer as a starter home.
I was just looking at an income distribution chart from 2009 Social Security records when he came home. There are 78,147 people in the US that declared that they make more than a million/year in income. Is it possible that we’ve got a cluster here or should the question be why are all these people around me going for broke at this point in the game?
THE HOUSING MARKET is still in deep trouble. Prices nationwide have fallen by about a third since the peak in 2006 — and they appear to be trending down again. The resulting hit to household wealth may hinder the recovery, which is already sluggish. Small wonder that various advocates for housing are once again asking Washington for help.
But in at least one area, the prescription would be worse than the disease. We refer to calls for extending the current elevated limit on the size of loans eligible for securitization by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance giants operating under government control. Congress “temporarily” raised the limit to a maximum of $729,759 in certain markets in response to the sudden evaporation of private liquidity during the 2008 crisis, but that measure is set to lapse at the end of September. At that point, the limit will not revert to the pre-crisis maximum of $417,000 in most of the country but to a level set in relation to local medians — and capped at $625,000.
Critics of the scheduled shrinkage argue that it will force up interest rates for homebuyers in relatively expensive markets, such as the San Francisco Bay area, thus forcing losses on middle-class homeowners who are trying to sell houses they stretched to buy in the first place. The effects, it is argued, will cascade throughout the housing market, since Fannie and Freddie (and other federal institutions) currently back about 90 percent of mortgages.
But the Obama administration has supported a reversion to lower loan limits as the first step in gradually reforming the mortgage security market and reducing taxpayer exposure to Fannie and Freddie. The administration’s goal is to lure cash-rich would-be mortgage securitizers back into the market, starting with the high end. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner has described this as “crowding in” private capital, and it is the rare housing policy proposal that has enjoyed a measure of bipartisan support.
…
BRUTAL SETS of housing data have been rolling in over the past couple weeks. Whether from economists or real estate firms or mortgage companies on the government dole, the numbers all point in the same direction — America’s housing market is in a double-dip swoon.
If the numbers showing housing prices slumming it around their spring 2009 lows aren’t troubling enough, then the surrounding context certainly is. The federal government spent trillions of dollars lifting housing — the recession’s great instigator — out of its trough. And now that home prices have collapsed again, the feds have far fewer tools available to prop them up again.
By now, we’re all acquainted with the link between housing prices and the larger jobs picture. A booming housing market fueled a wider economic expansion, and when the housing bubble burst it caused catastrophic damage to employment and bank balance sheets. Housing gains and losses play an outsized role in the direction of the overall economy. Housing has propelled the economy out of prior recessions, and its current dysfunction is one of the culprits behind the middling pace of the current recovery.
That’s why Washington has tried so hard to prop up the housing sector.
The White House nationalized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, wrote the two mortgage lenders a blank check (the current total tops $140 billion), and told the two firms, which were collapsing, to increase their book of business.
The Federal Reserve, dissatisfied with the impact of giving banks buckets of free money, bought up $1.25 trillion in mortgage bonds, and then another $600 billion in US government debt, all in a bid to depress mortgage rates.
Congress passed a lucrative tax credit for homebuyers. The incentive pushed up prices and crammed a year’s worth of buying and selling into last spring, but in the credit’s absence, home prices have retreated to near their post-crash lows. Home prices in Massachusetts are currently off their highs by 19 percent; in Rhode Island, they’re down by more than 31 percent.
It has been five years since the housing bubble peaked, and despite all that effort from the feds, prices are still bumping along the bottom. Low values portend more defaults and foreclosures. Fannie Mae is bleeding money once again. It requested another $8.5 billion from the Treasury last week, and the company warned that low housing prices would likely lead to further losses this year. One in every five of Fannie’s loans is worth more than the house it’s tied to. For mortgages written in 2006 or 2007, that number is one in every two.
…
Name:Ben Jones Location:Northern Arizona, United States To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
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Unlike Japan, which sees housing at perhaps the lowest level to date more than two decades after their real estate bubble collapsed, this fellow suggests U.S. housing will retake their 2006 bubble peak price levels by ten years hence.
How the logic of this prediction works is a mystery, although it seems to involve a fair amount of, “In Fed We Trust.” My own crystal ball is far too cloudy to foretell whether this outlandish-seeming scenario is whatsoever plausible.
OPINION
MAY 12, 2011
On Housing, There Will Be More Lean Years Ahead
Expect another 10 years before U.S. housing prices return to their 2006 highs.
By ALEX J. POLLOCK
It is nearly five years since the peak of the housing bubble, and that highly leveraged sector, with its $11 trillion in residential mortgage debt, continues to struggle. Home values just posted their biggest quarterly decline since late 2008, largely due to a steady stream of foreclosures.
But if we consider that the housing bubble inflated from roughly 1999 to 2006, that made seven fat years. An ancient authority would suggest that seven lean years should follow. That would mean two more lean years to go—not a bad prediction.
…
We now have the Bernanke Gamble to foster high prices for debt and equity securities, thus a positive wealth effect to offset the negative wealth effect of the huge losses in real estate and real-estate debt. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s gamble is being wagered on a long period of zero short-term interest rates and by the remarkable expansion of the Fed’s own balance sheet, including the purchase of about $1 trillion in mortgage debt—making the Fed, in a sense, the largest savings and loan in the world.
Will it work? Perhaps. But large unrealized losses still need to be realized and swallowed. We will continue to move sluggishly through an extended period of negotiating how these losses will be distributed. Who will take the hit? Delinquent borrowers, banks, investors (domestic and foreign), the government and government-sponsored entities, and the strapped deposit insurance fund are all involved in these contentious negotiations.
The negotiations also involve the role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which although hopelessly insolvent and having their losses paid for by taxpayers, are nonetheless funding the majority of new mortgage loans with government-backed debt. Their supporters want to continue having them fund mortgages as big as $729,750 to help prop up high-end housing prices. Opponents like me point out that this prevents the necessary return of private capital to mortgage finance.
As the debt hangover works its way through the system, the outlook is for housing to continue along an extended rocky and bumpy bottom, generally moving sideways in nominal terms. Since we will have an overall inflationary regime, real house prices will be falling. After working through the concluding lean years, housing prices can reasonably be expected to regain their long-term trend of increasing a little over 3% per year in nominal terms.
This would take them back to their highs in 10 years or so. If this happens, it will be far better than the performance of Nasdaq stocks, which a decade later have never even remotely approached their bubble high.
Mr. Pollock is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He was president and CEO of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago, 1991-2004.
Like Ben says, you have to consider when this thing started.
Mr. Pollack is wrong on several levels:
DC area house that bubbled up to Zestimate $500K and dropped to $340K.
Ten 3% increases gave me ~$456K.
Peak would re-occur in ~14 years, not 10.
Nicer flyover $400K house that dropped to $249K (more typical):
Peak would re-occur after 18 years, not 10.
This is assuming that prices will “continue along an extended rocky and bumpy bottom,” which is TOTAL BS. We are already seeing banks unwilling to lend because “there is no secondary market” to sell to (ie fannie freddie). We already know that without that secondary market, “private capital” will only “return to mortgage finance” if they have income verification and 20% down. If buyers need to bring 20% in cold hard cash, prices will NOT “generally move sideways.”
They will go over the dropoff.
“After working through the concluding lean years,” that $400K house will probably sell for $210K. Peak will be achieved in 23 years, not 10.
Your not considering inflation.
I thought inflation was covered by “nominal terms.”
I still think house prices are going to drop with or without inflation, especially if banks want a down payment. Down payments are saved up from wages, and wages are NOT inflating.
Down payments are saved up from wages, and wages are NOT inflating.
Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner!
If inflation really get’s going you can bet interest rates are going to go up and you can bet that will not have a positive effect on housing.
Wages are inflating in China & India.
Didn’t we already have our inflation in housing?
Exactly.
Instead of “dollars”, they should call them “FEDRENOS” - FEderal REserve NOtes.
Makes it apparent what they actually are.
The Fedreno.
Here is a bold forecast: There will be no shortage of foreclosure homes for sale in the U.S. over the next 5-10 years. And at least one monopolistic owner of REO homes, Fannie Mae, admits it delays the rate at which it releases them to the market in order to reduce its losses. This should keep bubble deflation going for years, folks, at least on nominal, if not real, terms.
Foreclosure Delays Plague Housing Recovery
Published: Thursday, 12 May 2011 | 12:30 AM ET
By: Diana Olick
CNBC Real Estate Reporter
…
There are currently 3.7 million loans that are 90 days or more delinquent, according to RealtyTrac’s Rick Sharga. Nationwide, completed foreclosures (REOs) took an average of 400 days from initial default notice to REO in the first quarter of this year. That’s up from 340 days a year ago and more than double the 151 days in 2007. At the current rate, it would take three to four years to move those loans through the foreclosure process. In some states, the picture is far worse.
In New York and New Jersey, it takes more than 900 days to get through the foreclosure process from start to finish, in Florida 619 days, and in California 330 days, according to RealtyTrac.
“Part of it is exacerbated by robo signing,” says Sharga, speaking of the paperwork scandal at major servicers that was uncovered last Fall. “We really believe that a big part of it is simply market saturation. We’re simply not seeing enough buying activity taking place to dispose of the properties the banks have already repossessed. If you’re a lender sitting on tens of thousands of properties you already can’t sell, why on earth would you be motivated to accelerate foreclosure proceedings on another 3.7 million homes?”
The big banks dispute this charge, claiming they are moving the process along as quickly as possible to mitigate their own losses. Once they get to REO, as we noted in yesterday’s blog, they try to sell them as quickly as possible.
“We don’t hold [REOs] to have any market placement or timing. We need to clear inventory, so as soon as we go through that process, the property is marketed as an REO and we move it out,” Doug Jones of Bank of America told an audience of Realtors Tuesday at a conference.
But according to Sharga’s data, there are 900,000 bank-owned properties, and less than 30 percent of those are available for sale. Fannie Mae, which owns more than 153,000 foreclosed properties, according to its latest earnings statement, claims it is aggressively pushing these properties through the pipeline and out onto the housing market.
“We’ve created one of the largest REO operations in the country,” Fannie Mae CEO Mike Williams told me in a rare interview. “We always try to strike the right balance between moving properties, which reduces losses but making sure we’re not moving them in a way that going to either hurt communities or hurt our bottom line. So we have a team that’s very focused on those set of activities and we measure those results on a daily, weekly and monthly basis.”
…
Yeah, we’ve come a long way from the “there is no shadow inventory” days. Yesterday I posted an article with a California RE analyst reporting on the Baltimore shadow inventory like it was a regular market statistic.
‘we’re not moving them in a way that going to either hurt communities or hurt our bottom line. So we have a team that’s very focused on those set of activities’
The largest market manipulation in history, IMO.
“…like it was a regular market statistic.”
That’s a game the MSM seems to regularly play — i.e. they suddenly start reporting on something which has long remained hidden from view as though it was always reported that way, rather than offering any acknowledgment of the sea change in perspective that just occurred.
Oceana is at war with Eastasia; Oceana has always been at war with Eastasia.
And Osama was our Goldstein.
You can see the real data in the 2010 Census of Population. Communties all over the country are protesting the number of vacant units the Bureau said it found.
Typically, vacancy rates are counted based on vacant for sale and/or vacant for rent. Although the vacancy rate is way based on those measures, that isn’t the real story.
There are lots of vacant units that are neither for sale or rent. Some are second homes, whose ower is elsewhere on the census weeks. But the real growth is in “other” vacant units. Such as those held off the market or in need of rehabilitation.
Here is just one example, from the Press Telegram.
“New census data released publicly today (May 5) show the housing vacancy rate in Massachusetts climbed to 9.3 percent over the last decade. In 2000, the rate was 6.8 percent, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The census counted 261,179 vacant housing units in Massachusetts last year, up from 178,409 vacant units in 2000.”
The for sale and for rent inventory didn’t go up that much, and neither did the second homes people intend to keep as such. And Mass. has one of the lowest foreclosure/overbuilding problems in the U.S. It must be much worse elsewhere.
Which begs the question…how long can they keep it up? How long can so many self-interested parties before one of them breaks rank?
Not much longer.
The S&L disaster lasted about 6 years.
Reality has a nasty habit of (eventually) intruding on the public discourse.
The big banks dispute this charge, claiming they are moving the process along as quickly as possible to mitigate their own losses.
And the banks are lying. Even the local, privately held banks are lying. For whatever reason (sheer volume, market manipulation), defaulted dumps sit and sit.
I think they are moving along as slowly as possible so as to hide/ignore their losses.
If they recognixe their losses now, then current senior management might be in the slightest bit of danger of not meeting the objectives that automatically get them their maximum bonuses. If that happened, they would have to rely on the board to decide they deserve the full amount despite not earning it automatically based on results. That might result in getting ribbed at the country club or in a bar.
And that would hurt their feelings.
If they recognize their losses now they would be insolvent. That is the story, period. This is about keeping your job and base pay. The bankers know losses will be much larger in the future, as a more deteriorated asset increases loss severity, but they don’t care. Extend and pretend is about the entities very survival and the jobs associated with it. Management wants to clip coupon for as long as possible and hopes that a recovery eventually saves the day. That option is worth more alive than dead and they will extend as long as they are allowed. The FDIC and FASB gave them a very big leash in 2009.
If they recognize their losses now they would be insolvent. That is the story, period. This is about keeping your job and base pay. The bankers know losses will be much larger in the future, as a more deteriorated asset increases loss severity, but they don’t care.
William K. Black, author of The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One, made a similar point in a recent Huffington Post article.
In essence, he’s saying that the banks are taking their sweet ole time on the foreclosures because that buys them time for more important things. Like continuing to loot the banks for their personal gain. That’s what control fraudsters do. And Black is quite the authority on control fraud.
Maybe. Whatever. Based on my observations, they are not expediting or finalizing disposition of inventory.
You are correct, they are not expediting disposition of assets. And you will be very disappointed if you are expecting that situation to change any time soon.
Well if you have some secret inside information, maybe you’d do well by informing us.
Sorry, no secret inside info. It just seems logical that current management won’t prematurely pull the plug. What incentive does current management have to end the charade, and their paychecks, if government regulators and accounting standards board allow them to issue misleading/fraudulent financial statements in the hopes that they will pull out of the death spiral some day. Management knows they are toast now and it doesn’t matter if they are blacker toast in 5 years. And who knows, maybe the market recovers or they can earn enough from a steep yield curve and other business lines to afford to take more losses in the future.
Steamed Bean IS giving you the inside information.
Remember, the Level 3 assets were never really made to conform to mark-to-market. There was and still is a reason for that. Because they would be insolvent. Worse than bankrupt.
They are working to realize their losses over a longer period of time, as to not fail.
The FDIC is letting them do this because the FDIC has no money left to take over banks (take a look at the FDIC accounting on their website–they are out of money). Last I checked, the FDIC cash reserve had gone from $50B pre-crash to $10B, with approximately $18B reserved for failing institutions for a balance of negative $8B.
Let me chime in a minute. I sent a letter to BOA, explaining we are CASH, our housing criteria, and we are ready to buy, and got NO response. I’ve done this 5 times in the past 2 yrs.
Stay AWAY from BofA.
If they never put some of these back on the market and only let them deteriorate to the point of being uninhabitable wouldn’t that only help the banks? Especially since the taxpayer backs all their losses?
In the frothier locales I sometimes wonder if this is their intention.
There is a fine balance. They can use profit/loss tax write-offs for many of them, then sell them to flippers who will shoulder the entire cost for rehab.
“If you’re a lender sitting on tens of thousands of property you already can’t sell, why on earth would you be motivated to accelerate foreclosure proceedings on another 3.7 million homes?”
And if you did accelerate foreclosure proceedings on another 3.7 million homes then you would have another 3.7 million homes sitting vacant and ready to deteriorate due to vandals and the elements, but if you can delay foreclosure on these 3.7 million homes and somehow fool the occupants into believing that they somehow still own these 3.7 million homes or have a chance of somehow owning these 3.7 million homes then they they will stay in these 3.7 million homes and take care of them as if these 3.7 million homes belonged to them.
Squatters think they are pulling one over on the banks, but the banks are getting what they want from the squatters and will continue to get what they want right up to the very day they have the squatters and their belonging cast out into the street.
So it’s a win-win! Until the banks win and the FB moves on.
Knowing this unknowable known, would it be a bank-able plan to think that Bofa will delay wife’s foreclosure yet again (in your infinite wisdom) or proceed with the 50 others on a single August day?
Lots of units available in our hood, not selling at favorable prices, if at all. Is the bank really ready for us to leave and take over the carrying costs knowing it will have to unload it for half the mortgage amt(places going for 150k, owing 300k)
Trying to figure out the best exit strategy for us in this dine and dash scenerio, albeit a “legal” one; with us at the buffet/trough.
As long as the banks are in control then they can do as they please. If it pleases them to have you stay they you will get to stay. The day they decide you should go is the day you get tossed into the street.
But …if you can can somehow convince them that it is in their best interest for you to stay they stay is what they will allow you to do.
Put on a banker’s hat and think of your situation from the banker’s point of view and maybe you will be able to come up with some ideas.
Remember: Banks have thousands of houses that have mortgages that are underwater. This puts them is a very weak position. Their weakness can become your strength if you can somehow convince them that it is better for them for you to say than it is for you to leave.
Put another way, if the banks are going to foreclose on thousands of homes then they are going to do so a few at a time. Your task is to somehow arrange it so that your home is among the last to be foreclosed on.
Thank you. May the fleas of 1000 camels occupy your tent! We are not too screwed; but like our present home (for…..free?) and moving later than sooner would suit us just fine.
Not sure what a better strategy would be, to stay current on the HOAs or to rack up that bill in order to let the bank pay more to clear the lien when it repos.
Appreciate the reply, better than GTFO! which I understand will happen; but you seem to get that we are doing the bank a favor by keeping the place up; they are doing us a bigger favor by extending the auction date multiple times from 11-15-10 to late Aug 11. And you got me thinking, which is never a good thing
“… but you seem to get that we are doing the bank a favor by keeping the place up …”
Well, you are, arent’ you? Is the bank better off if you stay and keep the place up rather than moving out and leaving it vacant?
Keeping the place up benifits whomever it is that owns the property. If you own the property then you benifit. If the banks owns the property then the bank benifits.
Hmmm. Been watching the continual postponement of F/C on a local pol’s McMansion. They just had another hearing last week, but I have no idea what transpired, except now there’s a new sale date.
So these squatters are basically “house sitters”. They get to stay in the house, keep it in good condition, in exchange for free mortgage, until the bank’s ready to put it on the market in 2, maybe three years. #winning
Meanwhile, those of us who pay our mortgages faithfully…
How many squatter-occupied homes did you say there were?
How many squattupied?
That whole approach is dependent on them having enough time to maintain their current approach to liquidation. There are so many variables to this - employment, demographics, global economy, etc.
We already have seen the damage from the price declines - now comes the damage from the simple passage of time and events. Which, IMHO, will take the greater toll.
Which, IMHO, will take the greater toll ??
Along with higher interest rates and fewer deductions for home ownership…Its a toxic mix…
I almost think we’ll see the end to the MID before we see higher interest rates. But yes, that’ll pack a punch - in a good way.
in a good way ??
I agree….
The problem with sitting on it is that like milk, vacant housing goes bad. That’s why there used to be governemnt cheese. The government bought tons of milk to keep prices up and had to do SOMETHING with it. The answer was cheese. Pretty cr@ppy American cheese that was really only good for making nachos, in fact. What can the banks do with all this property to keep it from going bad?
What can the banks do with all this property to keep it from going bad?
Maintain it.
But, as what many people have reported on this HBB, the banks aren’t doing a very good job in the maintenance and repair department.
Can you shrink-wrap a house?
They do big boats.
Yes, but most boats don’t sit directly on or over the ground from which much moisture doth cometh.
“Yes, but most boats don’t sit directly on or over the ground from which much moisture doth cometh.”
Silica gel!
See may post above:
Banks can take profit/loss write-offs on many of them and then sell them to flippers who will shoulder the entire costs of rehab.
yeah but those losses are probably bigger than their poential profits, even when the Fed gives them free money to lend out.
Drop in foreclosure filings not necessarily good news
Foreclosure filings continued to fall in April, but not necessarily because fewer people were behind on their mortgages, according to a new report.
“Foreclosure activity decreased on an annual basis for the seventh straight month in April, bringing foreclosure activity to a 40-month low,” James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of foreclosure data company RealtyTrac, said in the report. “This slowdown continues to be largely the result of massive delays in processing foreclosures rather than the result of a housing recovery that is lifting people out of foreclosure.”
…
Nationwide, homes typically took 400 days to go from the initial default notice to bank repossession in the first quarter, up from 340 days a year earlier and 151 days in the first quarter of 2007, RealtyTrac said.
The Seattle area, including King, Pierce and Snohomish counties, had one filing for every 564 homes in April. That was the 67th-highest rate among the 206 U.S. areas with more than 200,000 people, RealtyTrac said. Las Vegas continued to have the highest rate, one for every 82 homes.
Washington had one filing for every 715 homes — the 20th-highest rate among states and Washington, D.C. Nevada had the highest rate, one for ever 97 homes, for the 52nd-straight month.
…
Personal bankruptcies, especially among elderly, surge in Massachusetts
WEYMOUTH —Personal bankruptcy filings have risen to their highest levels since bankruptcy reform legislation was enacted in 2005, spurred by widespread job losses, underemployment and a stagnant real estate market.
The bankruptcy epidemic has affected a wide variety of households, from people in their prime earning years who are struggling after layoffs to retirees who are no longer able to pay their mortgages.
In Massachusetts, the total number of Chapter 7 and Chapter 13 personal bankruptcy filings rose to nearly 23,000 last year, up 16 percent from 2009. Nationally, personal bankruptcy filings rose 9 percent over the same time.
A 33-year-old administrator at a residential treatment facility for at-risk teens had never fell behind on his bills. But the purchase of a condo in Abington during the height of the real estate bubble proved to be disastrous for him.
David, who asked that his last name not be used in this story, bought the condo in 2005 with a friend as an investment and short-term living arrangement, using an interest-only mortgage that became an adjustable rate mortgage after five years.
As the economy lurched into recession, both took pay cuts and David’s roommate lost his job. Hoping to force the lender to modify the loan, the pair stopped paying the mortgage for nearly three years. They finally settled on a short sale, a process that left them with a $90,000 debt. “Unfortunately, like a lot of people we ended up with a mortgage that was set up for failure,” he said.
The bankruptcy epidemic has cut across all circles, but what’s changing is the demographics, local bankruptcy lawyers say.
“For the first time, we’re seeing a great deal of elderly people,” said Wayne Gilbert, a bankruptcy lawyer from Weymouth. “Before 2007, we didn’t.”
Gilbert recalled a woman nearing her 90th birthday who begged him to take her case so that she could pass on a clean estate to her family.
Read more: http://www.patriotledger.com/lifestyle/50_plus/x530469513/Personal-bankruptcies-especially-among-elderly-surge-in-Massachusetts#ixzz1M8Mt8bgY
Are the heirs responsible for the debts of the deceased? Or is it just limited to the estate? I’m a little fuzzy on how that works. I remember a guy I used to know many years ago telling me that his father left him a lot of debt he had to pay off. But I’m not sure if he meant he had to liquidate his father’s assets to pay it off. The way he talked, it went beyond the liquidation of estate and that the son was personally on the hook.
Are you asking if one can leave debts in his will for others to pay off after he dies?
I like it: I’ll will to my family and friends all my assets and I’ll will to my enemies all my debts.
“Are you asking if one can leave debts in his will for others to pay off after he dies?”
No, I’m just asking if heirs are on the hook for debts of the deceased.
But I like your idea. Run up my credit cards just before I kick the bucket and leave the debt to MALDEFF.
“Run up my credit cards just before I kick the bucket …”
From what I understand this is exactly what a lot of old folks are doing.
No, your entire estate is subject to your debts so if you die “under water” your heirs get nothing, you can’t obligate your childen to pay anything beyond that unless they are co-signers.
Creditors try to get the kids to pay through guilt (wouldn’t your mother want all her debts paid) and by offering new “terms” that the heirs then sign, thereby taking on the debt legally.
Creditors love to push this line, but it is untrue. The heir of an estate are never personally liable for the debts of the deceased unless that person voluntarily took on the debt, such as by cosigning with the deceased.
The estate of a deceased is a separate legal entity from the person who just died. As such, the estate may have to pay the debts of the deceased, and in so doing the amount available for distribution to heirs could be reduced.
“Creditors try to get the kids to pay through guilt (wouldn’t your mother want all her debts paid) and by offering new “terms” that the heirs then sign, thereby taking on the debt legally.”
Thanks, polly, it sounds like that’s what happened to that guy, he probably took on his father’s debts, trying to do the right thing because “that’s what dad would have wanted.” Sheesh.
There is a reason jobs like that (calling people with no responsibility for a debt whohave just lost a loved one and trying to get them to pay) have a high turnover rate. There are people with absolutely no morals who must thrive in that environment, but not everyone can do it. I expect the get extensive training on exactly what they can and can’t say to avoid flat out lying to these people.
Then there are the heirs who are peeved that they have to pay the debts before they get their inheritance.
Polly are there any limitations to what they can do and who they can call? It’s my understanding that there are pretty strict rules about calling people up and asking them to reaffirm debts that were discharged through bankruptcy.
Yeah, I fairly sure there are strict limits on trying to get someone who isn’t responsible for the debts (like a kid) to take them on. That is why you have to be kind of a scum bag to do it. You are skirting the edge of lying at all times. You are taking advantage of emotionally vulnerable people. You are trying to get the grieving to do something most assuredly against their best interest. And since you have to be careful not to lie, it isn’t like your employer has lied to you and told you they are deadbeats - they couldn’t train you to do your job if they did. The callers can’t claim to not know the person they are calling really doesn’t have to pay a cent once the estate is finished. Nasty piece of business. I’d get fired in an hour. I hate that stuff.
For that matter, even if you agree to pay, there is no “consideration,” so I’m not sure that you could be legally compeled if you later changed your mind. I’m not aware that assuming somebody else’s debts are one of the categories of contracts* that can be upheld without a consideration.
*like reaffirming your own debts, or gifts to charity.
I would assume debt doesn’t transfer to a non-spouse member of the family, unless it’s a title thing. My mother was obligated to pay the cc’s in my father’s name in Ca. We’re a community property state. We paid 50C on the dollar. The rest the bank wrote off, but it was a taxable event.
I did not pay any credit card debt of my father’s after he died. No fuss. The hospital gave me a hard time over the ambulance fee, but they didn’t take legal action against the estate. My mother naturally got title to the house and still was responsible for the (tiny) mortgage. NY.
I did not pay any credit card debt of my father’s after he died. No fuss. The hospital gave me a hard time over the ambulance fee, but they didn’t take legal action against the estate. My mother naturally got title to the house and still was responsible for the (tiny) mortgage. NY.
You got lucky. In probate, the ccs and the hospital could have demanded their loans from the estate (to inlcude the house) or attach a lien to the house.
Blue
Interesting to compare notes and different states. Thanks. I did the death benefits, and my financially clueless sister did the debt settlements. She got some dough for her efforts, and it cost me to collect, without reimbursement. POS for a mother.
Blue
It took me 3 months and 7 benefits to deal with. It was quite time consuming, and not all the calls were 800 numbers, postage, notary costs, etc… Plus hours and hours of reading, following up, and calling. I got screwed. My sister’s kids flew to expensive summer camps compliment of my hard work. I hope my Mother’s funeral is nice. I’m staying home.
banana,
My dad was a crafty one. The estate was worth less than $10K, so no probate. No way they could have gone after the house. Mom owned the house complete upon his death without it being an inheritance. Had they both died, then it would have been a different ballgame.
Awaiting,
My dad arranged all his affairs so that all I had to do was open a binder and make the calls as directed. The man was my best friend and hero. I’d give all the postage stamps in the world for one more day with him.
I’m sorry your mileage was different.
“My dad arranged all his affairs so that all I had to do was open a binder and make the calls as directed.”
My parents have something similar and keep it updated every year. It is, perhaps, the kindest thing they have ever done for my brother and I, though we don’t expect to have to deal with it for over a decade. Mom got inspired after the second parental spouse (her aunt and then her uncle) left her with a mess to deal with on their passing. Mom calls it the death book. Dad has never referred to it at all. I call it the Book of the Dead.
Blue
I am happy you had good parents, and your Father was your mentor, so to speak. Parents that have things arranged are the good ones. I wasn’t so lucky. Lots of death denial in our family.
Before my Mother’s body is cold, trust me, my Sister will be at the bank and through her things.
Polly,
You’re another lucky one. I like what you named the “instruction book”. You and Blue come from good stock.
That book idea is so wonderful, one last gift to you really. There is great mystery surrounding our elders’ affairs. They allude to situations here and there but if there was in an auto accident we’d be completely lost. Unless their lawyer is holding instructions similar to said book. Or perhaps their lawyer is supposed to handle everything.
Too bad I don’t respect him as much as they do. Maybe we should sit them down and at least get a few phone numbers.
I haven ‘t been through the book in a number of years but you need at least this much:
social security numbers/cards
a copy of the will and the location of the real one
papers related to any trust
name and contact info for the lawyer who dealt with the will and anything else important
copies of all insurance policies
location of and how to access all safety deposit boxes, like where the key are kept
locations of any cash or valuables they have stashed in non-obvious places
Deed to the house, if any, or location of same and where the spare keys are kept
car title(s), if any, or locations of same and where the spare keys are kept
list of bills that generally have to be paid in any month and the account numbers related to them
list of all credit card accounts
list of all bank accounts
list of retirement accounts
list of debts other than credit cards
location of and information about any burial plots
instructions for burial or cremation
if it exists, where they pre-planned and paid for their funerals
information about how to get access to their computers if they get important financial documents by e-mail, but better to print out a recent version at least once a year for the book plus how to access on-line bank information
location of and how to access any guns, if applicable
Nice to have:
list of their doctors so they can be notified and future appointments can be cancelled
list of any items in the house that are worth a lot more than the kids might think (no, that ugly painting that you have always hated is worth quite a bit, it should go to an auction house, not a yard sale)
text for a death announcement if they want one, including for any alumni magazines
instructions for military honors for a funeral if applicable
information about how to access computers so stored photos or other family stuff can be accessed
Information about on-line accounts like facebook so they can be cancelled
list of charities they often donated to so they can be notified and list of charities they would like to get incidental stuff that wouldn’t be disposed of in a will and the kids probably don’t want like clothes
I’m sure I’ve missed a few, but that is enough to get anyone started.
A list of what you need and other stuff you might want will post shortly - it was a long post.
People were after me to check up on my father’s estate before he died, get all involved in his business and ask him a lot of questions before he died. But he was pretty sick and I sensed he wouldn’t like it. In the end the living trust he’d done after some seminar 30 yrs ago held up just fine and everything worked out okay.
Polly
Thank you. I have printed it out and I am going to compare it with what I already have.
Regards,
Patrick
You are welcome. You will certainly want to add things for your particular situation. Just make sure to be careful with where they/you keep the book. It is pretty much everything a thief could ever want. It really belongs in a fireproof safe, but then you have to make sure your heirs know how to get into the safe
We plan on having our kids give the IRS our last check,
and believe me, our accounts will be zeroed out.
“For the first time, we’re seeing a great deal of elderly people,” said Wayne Gilbert, a bankruptcy lawyer from Weymouth. “Before 2007, we didn’t.”
That’s because today’s elderly have different values than the previous elderly. But get used to it. The elderly to come will be MUCH poorer than today’s elderly.
Someone memtioned the other day (I think it was AZ Slim) about how the geezers meet a fast food places in the morning to drink cheap coffee and complain about things. Of course they are the lucky ones who were able to buy a house for 1-2X annual income, have a pension, savings and collect SS.
The next generation of geezers will be serving the coffee and mopping the floors.
Already. Are.
Today’s elderly got screwed just like the rest of us, WT. But unlike the rest of us, they can’t get jobs.
But, but… I thought the old folks had all that money from their entitlements?!
Treasury Auctions To Take US Over Debt Ceiling On Monday
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- The Treasury Department auctioned $56 billion in new debt Tuesday and Wednesday, enough to take the U.S. over its federal debt ceiling when the three- and 10-year notes settle on Monday.
Treasury officials last month flagged May 16 as the day the government would hit the $14.294 trillion debt limit.
The U.S. is selling $72 billion in new debt over three days this week. The Treasury auctioned $32 billion in three-year notes Tuesday and $24 billion in 10-year notes Wednesday, and will sell $16 billion in 30-year bonds Thursday. All of the auctions will settle Monday.
As of Tuesday, total debt subject to the limit was $14.274 trillion, according to the Treasury Department.
The Obama administration has asked Congress to raise the limit, warning that failure to act could lead the government to default by Aug. 2–and could spook investors even before then.
What Happens In San Diego If Feds Don’t Lift Debt Ceiling?
By Alison St John
May 9, 2011
A study of who would suffer if the federal government failed to raise the federal debt limit suggests San Diego stands to lose up to $17 billion per year
The analysis, by National University System’s Institute for Policy Research, shows 21 percent of the region’s gross domestic product comes from federal spending.
Erik Bruvald of NUSIPR said $36 billion in federal money flowed into San Diego in 2009, the latest available figures. The biggest chunk, 42 percent, goes to defense and military related spending. He said 33 percent goes to entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.
“And then if people think if you just end welfare and some of the social safety net programs – well, in San Diego County, that only accounts for 2.1 percent of all federal spending,” he said.
…
He said 33 percent goes to entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.
There they go again, calling insurance programs that every worker contributes over 14% of his/her income throught a lifetime as “entitlements”.
And this is done for one reason, and one reason alone: to condition J6P to not complain when these programs are cancelled (while the payroll tax remains firmly in place to fund wars)
Note to Colorado:
Since LBJ, Social Security became an entitlement. It is not an insurance program with ANY implied benefits. It is tax.
All previous SS monies collected have been spent. The money is GONE.
All SS money going out today is collected today from taxes on current workers (ie - redistribution of taxes).
The average SS recipient today will collect far more than they ever put into the SS system (with interest). The tipping point hits in a few years. Those that are in their 20s, 30s and 40s today will get a pittance of what they put in.
There is no “lock box”, all SS tax collected goes into the general treasury.
“All previous SS monies collected have been spent. The money is GONE.”
Yawn. Standard lines of the anti-social security trolls. The money was spent in the same way all money used to buy Treasuries was spent- by its borrower, the US government.
Are you saying all Treasury notes are no good, since the money was spent? Or are we just defaulting on the notes owned by the little people, with the wealthy getting their Treasury notes paid in full?
Are you saying all Treasury notes are no good, since the money was spent?
See Greece, Ireland, Iceland, and Portugal for my answer
+1
Money is fungible. Why should social security payments be discontinued, instead of, say, defense contractor payments, or payments to the Chinese? We’re all under the same debt.
Oh please banana, say the “p” word.
“See Greece, Ireland, Iceland, and Portugal for my answer”
Hey, I’ll give you points for consistency. At least you recognize we’d have to default on _everybody_ if we refuse to honor the Treasuries held by the SS trust fund.
Some seem to think we can selectively default on just the SS treasuries.
“All SS money going out today is collected today from taxes on current workers (ie - redistribution of taxes).”
I would agree with that if SS was funded from the income tax. But its not. Its funded via a dedicated tax, whose sole purpose is to fund social security. Just like a health insurance premium has a sole purpose, to pay for health care. That SS is mandatory does not make it any less of an insurance program.
“Or are we just defaulting on the notes owned by the little people, with the wealthy getting their Treasury notes paid in full?”
Careful with what you say in public. You could end up on the “island” for knowing too much.
And my prediction remains. They will try to kill SS, while leaving the payroll tax in place to fund wars. The money is there, they just want to spend it something else (guns).
Hey, I’ll give you points for consistency. At least you recognize we’d have to default on _everybody_ if we refuse to honor the Treasuries held by the SS trust fund.
No - first they will just cut the Social Security entitlement or raise the age limit or make it make it income/wealth dependent or whatever.
You see, it is just another government program that the government can do with what they want. If it was an insurance program - you would have a contract that you could sue to enforce and the insurance company would have to have the assets they promised.
In the end, SS is backed ONLY with future wages of future workers (since NOTHING has been saved) or with the “full faith and backing” of US Treasuries.
Personally, I would rather have all the money I put into SS, in my name, in either gold, oil stock or farm land. But that is just me…
You see, it is just another government program that the government can do with what they want. If it was an insurance program - you would have a contract that you could sue to enforce and the insurance company would have to have the assets they promised.
To a point that is true. But insurance companies are pretty much also pay as you go, redistributionist programs. And many do invest their assets in US securities as well. And FWIW, gold and stocks are volatile.
But I agree with you that it would be better if SS had diversified the “trust fund”. But so far Uncle Sam isn’t defaulting. When he does, all bets are off and I think SS will be the least of our worries as our nation will probably be ripped apart. I hope to have a foreign passport when that happens, as US Passports will be persona non grata around the world (unless you have a LOT of money).
“SS is backed ONLY with future wages of future workers (since NOTHING has been saved) or with the “full faith and backing” of US Treasuries.”
The 14th Amendment to the Constitution
Section 4. The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.
An isn’t money held in the form of Treasuries ’saved’? Or do you have some unique definition of the word?
An isn’t money held in the form of Treasuries ’saved’? Or do you have some unique definition of the word?
See Greece, Ireland, Iceland, and Portugal for my answer
But insurance companies are pretty much also pay as you go, redistributionist programs.
I think you’re missing the point here (assuming I understand what 2banana is saying).
The term “insurance” is being used way too liberally when applied to SS. With proper insurance, you’d have a contract which details what events are insured against, and what compensation you will receive.
With SS there is no such thing. The terms are subject to change at the whim of one party. You could argue it’s a “forced savings” program, but it really doesn’t compare to what one usually considers “insurance” on a daily basis.
Hey slipperybanana, what was your ball-park $ dollar e$timation for the value of America?, you know,…everything!
(“TrueAnger™” disciple/advocates seem to always avoid that gue$$timation as well.)
The term “insurance” is being used way too liberally when applied to SS.
Perhaps, but to call it an entitlement is even more disingenous, with the implication that it wasn’t earned.
And this mentality is EVERYWHERE (congratulations, PTB, who have accomplished your mission).
There was even a Simpsons episode where Abe Simpson says that he did nothing to earn his monthly SS check. Did he forget about all the money that was withheld from his paycheck?
banana’s - You see, it is just another government program that the government can do with what they want. If it was an insurance program - you would have a contract that you could sue to enforce and the insurance company would have to have the assets they promised.
This is laughable
1. Insurance companies play all kinds of games to knock sick people out of their insurance program. They cancel contracts with small businesses that have a sick employee. They review records and find one high blood pressure and then claim you lied and negate your policy. They don’t pay claims promptly and try to fool the elderly into making payments that are owed by insurance companies. They put low caps on these plans and people that don’t understand the costs of medicine buy them only to find they aren’t covered. They get sick people on to medicaid adn medicare. That’s why the public satisfaction with medicare and social security is through the roof while opions polls on insurance companies suggest low satisfaction.
2. Insurance companies can go bankrupt. You really think they have enough money to back up claims. See my article yesterday about how they are using financial instruments similar to MBS to hide their risk and elevate profits. You can bet that if things hit the skids again they will require a bailout or default on payments.
The term “insurance” is being used way too liberally when applied to SS. With proper insurance, you’d have a contract which details what events are insured against,
Yea. You know. Like “proper” American private health insurance-the kind that doesn’t really insure you when you are dumb enough to get sick or something.
The money is NOT gone and Gen Y & X are larger than the boomer gen.
They are entitlements. Insurance is voluntary. The so-called contributions are taxes.
I thought the Amish opt out of Social Security?
An entitlement is something someone else pays for, like food stamps. I have paid hundreds of thousands into SS. Any benefits I receive are not entitlements.
Like I said, we are being brainwashed into believing this so that it will be easier to rip us off.
I have paid hundreds of thousands into SS. Any benefits I receive are not entitlements.
And that’s true for some % of the SS recipients. But not all. So is it an insurance program for some, but an entitlement for others?
I thought the Amish opt out of Social Security?
They do. Instead of SS, they take care of each other.
“Like I said, we are being brainwashed into believing this so that it will be easier to rip us off.”
Exactly. Like the oft-repeated myth that Social Security is bankrupt, when in fact:
The trust fund will run out in 2037, “at which point tax income would be sufficient to pay about 75 percent of scheduled benefits through 2084.” Full Social Security solvency would require only about 0.7 percent of GDP, which you can get to by exposing income above $107,000 to the payroll tax.
Slate
“we are being brainwashed into believing this so that it will be easier to rip us off.”
Tell that to all the cavalier folk who like to say, “I know I’ll never see a penny of it - ” Good, then we don’t need to pay you do we.
And this is done for one reason, and one reason alone: to condition J6P to not complain when these programs are cancelled (while the payroll tax remains firmly in place to fund wars)
umm…no. “Entitlement” simply means that those who qualify are legally “entitled” to the payments. Which means that the money used does not need to appropriated in the way that the money for a new aircraft carrier, or bridge to nowhere does. Which is why if they hadn’t passed a budget earlier this year the administration COULDN’T simply cut Social Security payments to make ends meet.
“Tell that to all the cavalier folk who like to say, “I know I’ll never see a penny of it - ” Good, then we don’t need to pay you do we.”
That’s exactly what I mean. Once people are brainwashed into believing they won’t get anything, then it will be a piece of cake to redirect the payroll tax receipts to other “programs”.
“Entitlement” simply means that those who qualify are legally “entitled” to the payments. Which means that the money used does not need to appropriated in the way that the money for a new aircraft carrier, or bridge to nowhere does.”
I don’t disagree with you. But in the popular vernacular “entitlement” means “welfare”.
drummy - I have paid hundreds of thousands into SS. Any benefits I receive are not entitlements.And that’s true for some % of the SS recipients. But not all. So is it an insurance program for some, but an entitlement for others?
This is exactly how an insurance program works too. Some people get more back than they put in right.
SS is an insurance program that says you will not starve in the streets if you outlive your savings. Some people die before 65 and get nothing, others live to 100 and benefit greatly. It’s called insurance.
SS is an insurance program that says you will not starve in the streets if you outlive your savings.
Strongly disagree. You might view it that way, but with insurance I pay a premium and have covered events. Are you saying that I’m paying premiums each time they forcefully deduct from my paycheck? And the covered event is me turning 65?
Why then do I get statements as far as my “balance”, if it’s an insurance policy?
Oh, Jim. You and your “facts.” You make it so much harder to rant. Ranting is much more satisfying.
“. Are you saying that I’m paying premiums each time they forcefully deduct from my paycheck? And the covered event is me turning 65?”
Yes.
The real problem is the meaning of the word “entitlement.”
It used to have an honest connotation. e.g. I paid my $4.50, therefore I am “entitled” to that cup of coffee.
Now it carries some sarcasm and arrogance with it. e.g. I lost money on my house, therefore I am “entitled” to a refinance.
Those who refer to SS as an “entitlement” program are playing off of the sarcastic connotation.
So it’s not an entitlement, not really insurance… I guess the closest description of SS is a “government pension,” but then the Walkers of the world would try to take it away again. Or better yet, “retirement escrow.”
“I have paid hundreds of thousands into SS”
Please explain how this is possible… since in 2011 only the first $106,800 of wares are subject to FICA of 4.2% ($4485.60)
Even at the previous rate of 6.2% ($6621.60)
Those who refer to SS as an “entitlement” program are playing off of the sarcastic connotation.
Exactly. In the modern vernacular it means “handout”.
To my understanding, the inherent problem with Medicare is that the average person pays $150k into the system over their lifetime, but gets $450k of benefit.
Even when factoring in some growth in the $150k (inflation, etc.), the math works more as an entitlement than as insurance (especially since the money has been spent, and not set aside for care).
If Medicare was supposed to work as non-profit insurance, the premiums would be higher and the benefit lower. Which, by the way, is probably where we are heading.
The GOP has done everything to make Medicare look bad. GW’s prescription drug plan heaped huge costs on medicare. They forbid medicare to bargain for cheaper drugs or use a formulary. Thus the VA pays 60% less for prescription drugs than does Medicare. It seems the PTB are intent on stripping the wealth from the workers in medicine and local hospitals and handing it to big pharma or insurance companies.
Medicare is of course hurt by runaway medical costs in the US and is in much more dire straits than SS. Of
On the other side though, Medicare pays hospitals and other healthcare providers far less than traditional insurance companies (shockingly less in many cases).
On the other side though, Medicare pays hospitals and other healthcare providers far less than traditional insurance companies (shockingly less in many cases).
ISTR more than one doctor-member of this blog saying how much more they preferred dealing with Medicare than the private insurance companies. I think that RE Hobbyist’s sentiments were along the lines of true love.
BTW, how’s the Hobbyist doing these days? She was in cancer treatment — was it successful? (Please say yes. Please.)
Medicare’s problems are solved by universal health care.
The government currently runs a health insurance company that covers only the elderly, the chronically ill, and those too poor to pay. The private health insurance companies cover the healthy and the wealthy. We need those people paying in to the public insurance plan in order for it to work.
Currently, we’re like an auto insurance company that only covers the blind, the drunk, and those who can’t pay- it’s not an efficient way to run an insurance program.
Medicare’s problems are solved by universal health care.
Yes. And when Medicare’s problems are solved by universal health care so are much of America’s money problems solved, and solved on a personal, corporate, state and federal level.
Medicare doesn’t pay that much less that private insurance for most healthcare. Hospitals routinely make a profit on their Medicare patients. Medicaid on the other hand does pay less - way less.
(General statements. There will be some variations.)
I worked for a healthcare consulting firm for a summer as an intern (years ago). What we did was this:
1. Review all contracts between hospitals and insurance providers;
2. Review all bills/procedures and matched them against the applicable contracts; and
3. Rebill insurance companies for underpayments
So, if someone gets a Kidney transplant and the hospital was reimbursed at the wrong rate ($5k instead of $30k), we collected the additional money ($25k) from the insurance company. The consulting firm never went after individuals who weren’t paying. The work was fine. I didn’t feel bad about going after insurance companies to get them to pay what they owed, but there was not much to learn after a few months on the job.
The data was organized by DRG Codes, so you would have all patients with the same work done together, and scan through the bills/payments. It was common to see a string of reimbursements for certain procedures where a lot of the numbers were common and clustered (a group of payments that were either $5k or $7.5k, or $8), which represented the private insurers. There were then a group of payments that were all the same, but appeared to be outliers on the low side ($2k, for instance). Then there were other outliers ($500, or $1,250, etc.). The other outliers is what we were looking for.
The common low payments ($2k in my example) were the Medicare reimbursements.
Medicare paid WAY less than the private insurers. Perhaps that has changed over the years, but I doubt it. A friend of mine currently works for a surgeon who does things like hip replacements. According to that person, the reimbursement rate by Medicare for a hip replacement is shockingly low as compared to private insurers.
Polly, I don’t know what you know that is different from my experience, but based on what I saw firsthand, I’m not sure how hospitals make any money on Medicare patients, if any. Unless of course, how the reimbursements are calculated have changed, which is quite possible.
Why our POS medical industry is a POS:
http://www.theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/expensive-stitches-ii/
http://www.theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/expensive-stitches/
I have been in a room with the people who represent the hospital industry and they told me that Medicare is less but not dramatically so and that Medicaid is much, much less.
In addition, it simply logical. Hospitals are not all going broke. A very large number of hosptial patients are insured under Medicare. If Medicare didn’t cover hospital direct costs plus enough extra to cover indirect costs, they would all be going bankrupt all the time. They don’t get enough in donations to make up any significant difference and the donations they do get rarely are used to cover operating expenses. Small hospitals that can’t possibly be efficient enough to make money on Medicare (they have to have certain basic machines, but don’t have enough patients to keep them busy most of the time), get a special exemption from the Medicare reimbursement schedule as “critical access hospitals” and get reimbursed on a cost plus a small percentage extra basis.
Medicare is not the issue. Medicaid and the un/under insured are.
42 percent, goes to defense and military related spending ??
Thats the one that I would be most concerned about…The elections are going to play a big part IMO…If, the electorate pushes back “against” the republicans desires to slash the social programs and not do the same to the biggest budget item we have (military), then I think you could see a “major” realignment of just what kind of military we are going to have…My suspicion is that Peneta has taking his new position for a reason…
IMO, I think in many ways we won’t even recognize our new military…It will not be the boots-on-the-ground, hummers & tanks that we all have witnessed over the past…A new, high tech, fast & efficient and most importantly, very powerful type of military is what I see…
This will not be good news for most area’s dependent on military bases for economic support…As always, there will be winners & losers…I think the bases that have ports will fair well…I suspect the interior bases will be most vulnerable…
“IMO, I think in many ways we won’t even recognize our new military…It will not be the boots-on-the-ground, hummers & tanks that we all have witnessed over the past…A new, high tech, fast & efficient and most importantly, very powerful type of military is what I see…”
The Buck Rodgers military will be very good at defeating an opponent, of that I have no doubt. But when its time to occupy the defeated and do “nation building” the boots and Humvees will still be required. And since that seems to be the only kind of war we are fighting these days, I really doubt the military is going to change.
But when its time to occupy the defeated and do “nation building” the boots and Humvees will still be required ??
Just wait until the bills must be paid then we will see….Can’t borrow for ever…
Just wait until the bills must be paid then we will see….Can’t borrow for ever…
That is what will bring the change. And why I believe they want to kill SS, so they can use the payroll tax to pay for the wars.
NO. They want to take SS and invest it Wall St.
Yes, you can confirm that on Google with direct quotes from Congress and the Bush Whitehouse.
“42 percent, goes to defense and military related spending ??”
No, 42% is the portion of ALL so-called discretionary spending. Defense is 25%; all other discretionary is 18%.
It depends what you throw into the pot. SS and Medicare are funded via the payroll tax. If you keep their budgets separate (as it should be as they should not be funded via income taxes) then yes, the military eats the lion’s share of the budget.
No, 42% is the portion of ALL so-called discretionary ??
The 42% came from Pbears post on the percentage of federal spending in Dan Diego that was military related…
+1
A new, high tech, fast & efficient and most importantly, very powerful type of military is what I see…
Stealth mafiamob-attitude hit teams with fancy weapons for specific target elimination.
Any evidence this template might be efficient and actually work?
(Gotta be citizen-taxpayer cheaper that an aircraft carrier + group $hip $upport.)
Linda the Lunch Lady Lives Lavishly!
Jim Rogers view on the U.S. debt obligations and what we are facing:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42985646
In sum, higher interest rates, a coming recession without the ability to just spend our way out of it, but higher prices for everything we need such as fuel, food etc. Sounds like the mother of stagflation to me. He has been very accurate in his forecasts in my opinion and one of the few that I think actually is telling the truth when he speaks.
Sounds like the mother of stagflation to me ??
To me also…
Realtors Are Liars
Saw a bumper sticker on a car in downtown West Palm Beach yesterday.
“I`m Illegal so what”
Barack Obama was in town?
Go palmy!
I read a Mexican newspaper article the other day that accused Obama as being “illegal unfriendly” as deportations have increased under his admin. They also claimed that “immigration reform’”speeches like the one he gave in El Paso are just campaigning lip service.
Nothing less than open borders will please them. Just recently there have been numerous articles about the border patrol manipulating numbers by not arresting people for illegal crossings just shooing them back across the border. Remember we are told that fewer arrests mean fewer people are crossing.
I always thought lower arrests ment better bribes?
“Nothing less than open borders will please them.”
Agreed. FWIW, they still consider the SW as “stolen territory” and the common wisdom down there that they will take it back, that its only a question of time.
I consider myself as far to the left as possible on the environment, and as far to the right as possible on immigration. (and I don’t mean the McCain amnesty right)
I also don’t consider those concepts mutually exclusive. More people is not necessarily a good thing, and especially not if they’re not citizens.
Well, sleepless, it has been said that the easiest way to reduce global warming is to put on a condom, something that most if not all of the illegals from south of the border are not on board with.
I have a mortal terror of this country ending up like some overpopulated third world hell hole. It seems to be heading in that direction.
I consider myself as far to the left as possible on the environment, and as far to the right as possible on immigration. (and I don’t mean the McCain amnesty right)
And here I thought I was the only one! Seems that I have an insomniac ally from the Seattle area.
I agree, Palm.
Slim, that’s the rub I have with politics. I think most Americans lean one way or other on individual ISSUES, not in aggregate as they have been led to believe they should.
If we could harness all the energy wasted in partisan political BS and douche-baggery, gas prices would be $1.29 tomorrow.
(and I’m actually in Portland; maybe it’s time for a name change)
sleepless_near_Beaverton?
I’d be sleeping_with_one_eye_open_near_Beaverton if that were the case….
Link about border: http://policelink.monster.com/news/articles/153636-bp-agents-told-to-stop-making-illegal-immigrant-arrests
Ah, the numbers game. No doubt being done to appease the Aztlanistas.
What’s the basic problem with mass immigration?
Invariably, the mass immigration pattern is from an unsuccessful culture to a successful one. The possible problem is that if the immigration is massive enough, the unsuccessful culture will supplant the successful one, leading to a lose-lose situation. Both the immigrants are losing as they are just moving back into the situation they were trying to avoid, and the current residents lose as the successful culture is supplanted by the unsuccessful one.
So, this doesn’t call for no immigration - heterogeneity in the animal kingdom usually yields a hardier species. Homogeneity can lead to the royal families of Europe, with their genetic disorders. A culture that incorporates the best from the world’s cultures will be hardier it seems to me. Plus, immigrants are people willing to take chances and work hard, from my observations anyway. I think the answer is “assimilation”. A smaller amount of immigration plus assimilation is a win for both the immigrants plus the local population.
Ya mean a illegal (non-Hawaiian) gets credit for giving the thumbs up to execute Osama-I-b-hidin’-n-a-pakistan-mansion?
Cool!
They do the jobs American Presidents won’t do.
Let the Midnight Special shine a light on me
Well, you wake up in the mornin’, you hear the work bell ring
And they march you to the table to see the same old thing
Well you gotta pay the bills now, you gotta pay the rent.
But you better not complain boy, or to the curb your sent.
Boom Ba Boom Boom Ba Boom
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a light on me
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a light on me
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a light on me
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a everlovin’ light on me
Yonder come miss Rosie, how in the world did you know?
She hasn’t paid her mortgage, in two years or so.
Umbrella on her shoulder, foreclosure papers in her hand.
She come to see her lawyer, she wants a workout plan.
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a light on me
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a light on me
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a light on me
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a everlovin’ light on me
If you’re ever in Orlando, well, you better do the right
You better not gamble, and you better not fight
But if you`re underwater, then you need a plan
This is what it is boy, just don`t pay the man
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a light on me
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a light on me
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a light on me
Let the Deadbeat Special shine a everlovin’ light on me
I remember Ben telling people during this time period…
You want to buy a house, buy a house. Go ahead buy 2 or 3.
How the $8,000 Tax Credit Cost Home Buyers $15,000
BY THE NUMBERSMAY 10, 2011, 9:06 A.M. ET.
The government’s recent $8,000 cash incentive for first-time home buyers has proved even more costly for recipients than for taxpayers, according to data released Monday. Typical buyers have lost twice as much to price declines as they received from the program.
http://www.smartmoney.com/spend/real-estate/how-the-8000-tax-credit-cost-home-buyers-15000-1304981110838/ - 80k -
“I remember Ben telling people during this time period…
You want to buy a house, buy a house. Go ahead buy 2 or 3.”
I should have added that Ben said exactly this would happen. Words to the affect that the price drops were not over and this was the biggest mania in history.
You’re right, Jeff. I want to thank Ben for waking my tosh up. I was seriously drooling for a home back then, and Ben warned me. He slowed down my urgency, and I want to thank him. We need to buy (for cash) due to a Glaucoma issue, but we are now level headed more so than ever. Thanks Ben.
They were looking for volunteers. When they look for volunteers, run like h*ll.
Looks like the banks are positioning themselves for the coming MERS meltdown.
Borrowing Trouble
Some lenders are modifying mortgages only after homeowners waive their right to sue.
Slate
“A few months ago, Bank of America offered Sergio Cortez of Staten Island, N.Y., the help he desperately needed to stay in his home: a break on his mortgage. Like millions of others, he was facing foreclosure. But there was a catch buried in the fine print. Cortez had to waive any possibility of ever suing the bank for anything relating to the loan.
Cortez isn’t alone. While regulators have banned the practice, some banks and others who handle mortgages have still been forcing homeowners into a corner: You want a chance at saving your home? Then you’ll have to waive your rights.
GMAC, for instance, the fifth-largest servicer, which oversees about 2.5 million mortgages, includes a clause in its modification agreements that the “Borrower acknowledges that Lender is the legal holder of the owner of the Note and Security Instrument.”
GMAC is not alone. Citibank’s servicing arm, the fourth-largest servicer, included a very similar clause in a recent modification agreement with another client of Queens Legal Services. ”
O-oh, MERSy, MERSy me…
link http://www.slate.com/id/2293391/
Never waive the right to sue if you enter into a legally binding contract.
“… some banks and others who handle mortgages have still been forcing homeowners into a corner: You want a chance of saving your home? They you’ll have to waive your rights.”
Oh, please sir, may I have another?
Keep ‘em stayin’ and keep ‘em payin’. Promise them ANYTHING, just don’t let them leave.
Oh, and somehow convince them you are their latest best friend and are doing them a big favor.
“Looks like the banks are positioning themselves for the coming MERS meltdown.”
Moon river
MERS meltdown, wider than a mile
I’m crossing you in style some day
Oh, dream maker, you heart breaker
Wherever you’re goin’, I’m goin’ your way
Two drifters, off to see the world
There’s such a lot of world to see
We’re after the same rainbow’s end, waitin’ ’round the bend
My huckleberry friend, MERS meltdown , and me
Sure. And whatever happened to the big, inevitable cram-down?
This is how it works in the real world: If you buy something on credit, and you stop making payments, it gets repossessed.
Some people are getting the cram down. Or the equivalent as they leave one debt and buy another house for less money.
Some people are getting repoed and entering the rental pool. Often in a similar house for less money.
A lot are just sitting there because no one knows what the hell to do.
Ben is right. No one is forcing banks to forgive portions of 1st mortgages. HAMP was a scam, nothing more than posturing.
HAMP was the voluntary program it always said it was. The banks were allowed to choose to implement a program that considered giving people loan modifications that conformed with the guidelines of the program and receive a small payment to subsidize their paperwork costs. I don’t think there was even a metric for how successful they had to be at approving the modifications in order to receive the money.
That is what it always was and that is what it has turned out to be.
Now, the fact that someone over at Treasury probably thought the benefits of the program would outweigh the ire of the public when the overwhelming majority of them got no help, is what worries me. Who was that and have they quietly left yet, because it was obvious from the start that the number of people who could benefit was miniscule but the number of people who thought it would help them was huge. Even if the banks hadn’t spent all their time losing the paperwork or pursuing foreclosures simultaneously with processing modifications, the new loans were supposed to be set at 31% of gross income. I believe I demonstrated several times that that level of payment could easily be way over half of take home pay and too much for most families to handle.
Yes, it seemed obvious to us here that HAMP would only ever be able to help a small fraction of FBs. I don’t know whether I’m more worried by the idea that it was some sort of big con, or the idea that these guys thought that a little jawin’ and a bit of HAMP would be enough to arrest the decline in the RE market. If the choice is between crooks and idiots, I’m not at all sure which one I want. After all, crooks can be more predictable than idiots.
I think there are more and more banks that are beginning to realize that modifications that include principal reduction are in their best interest. There are costs to banks to foreclose in terms of paperwork, asset deterioration, and market perception of value. Most homeowners/debtors are willing to pay something to avoid the cost of moving, changing homes, etc. in terms of accepting less home price appreciation in the future (some structured modification), or slightly higher loan balance than they would have if they simply re-purchased the same home on the open market.
In other words, there are economic reasons for banks and borrowers to make deals that include principal reduction, where both will be better off as compared to a foreclosure process.
The number of modifications that include principal reduction are increasing (especially as banks are able to take more hits to balance sheets over time).
I’m frankly surprised it has taken this long for banks to understand that.
I’m frankly surprised it has taken this long for banks to understand that.
Yeah, you’d think that a two-by-four across their bank-y heads would have gotten the point across. But no-o-o-o! They needed a whole forest of two-by-fours.
I wonder how the regulators come into play…most bankers I know work hardest to keeping their jobs by appeasing the regulators. If the regulators were pushing them to modify by writing down principal, I’m sure that’s what they would do. However, the regulators were probably pushing them hardest to NOT write down loan balances until certain milestones were met, so they could continue to have the illusion of solvency…
In the wake of the subprime implosion, the Obama Administration has stepped up its scrutiny of disadvantaged neighborhoods’ credit access
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_20/b4228031594062.htm
Vote buying?
He already had that vote.
Obama Tells Companies to ‘Step Up’ and Hire Workers
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43003679
“Obama Tells Companies to ‘Step Up’ and Hire Workers”
I know I shouldn’t say this because I am not arguing political cr@p anymore. But it seems like the companies like McDonalds that got a waiver from the health-care bill are hiring, How many was it last month for McD`s, 50,000 in 1 day.
Just think if we had universal coverage. Companies wouldn’t have to let health insurance costs keep them from hiring. A boon especially for start-ups and smaller companies.
That hasn’t lead to an increase in hiring of people over 65 on Medicare.
link?
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/06/older-workers-without-jobs-face-longest-time-out-of-work/
As you can see, the older you are, the less likely you are to be unemployed. The unemployment rate for people over age 65 is about 6.5 percent, taken on a 12-month moving average. The unemployment rate for teenagers is nearly four times that.
…
The average jobless person over age 65 has been looking for work for 43.9 weeks. For someone between the ages of 55 and 64, the typical duration is 44.6 weeks, just a few weeks shy of a year. The average unemployment spells for both of these groups are at record highs.
The average teenager, on the other hand, has been looking for less than half that time, at 19.9 weeks.
That hasn’t lead to an increase in hiring of people over 65 on Medicare.
There are other important factors going on here besides an older worker being covered by Medicare.
In general for an employer, a 70 year old with Medicare is still not the same as hiring a 30 year old to whom you have to provide medical insurance.
Yet.
“The average teenager, on the other hand, has been looking for less than half that time, at 19.9 weeks.”
But teenagers, like those on Medicare, don’t have to be put onto the employers health care plan, no? I’m not sure if this article proves anything.
What would the unemployment rate amongst the over-65 be if they had to be added to their employer’s health care plan?
Uh, most people are RETIRED after 65.
(ergo hoc, propter hoc)
Just imagine if everything was free. Then nothing would cost any money.
That’s a beautiful thought. Thanks for sharing it, brother.
No need to imagine. Pretty soon you’ll be working for free, but everything will cost more.
I am sure they didn’t hire anyone they weren’t planning to hire anyway. They may even have delayed some needed hiring to be able to do it during the special event.
Companies do what they believe to be good for them (their analysis may be wrong in any given situtation). To expect anything else is hopelessly naive.
Point taken, but sometimes they do what is in the best interest of the people running them (management) rather than the owners (stockholders).
Agreed.
Hire people and sell to whom?
Start exporting or competing with exports, is the other part of the equation, because Americans have no money and now that the losses have been socialized, neither does the government.
Which is why I think the printing press “solution” is inevitable. Raising chickens in your backyard is going to become fashionable.
Raising chickens in your backyard is going to become fashionable.
It already is here in Tucson. Matter of fact, I’m a member of two local orgs that offer regular workshops on this topic.
I looked up this waiver system at one point. Companies are only granted a waiver IF they can prove that their existing benefits give the workers an advantage over adopting Obamacare. Those waivers only last until the Exchange is set up. The waiver isn’t like a tax break, OK?
But Alpha is right. Imagine how many jobs would be created if companies didn’t have to bother with health insurance at all! Even a public option would free companies from that burden.
Contrary to popular opinion, stuff does not come from nowhere. I am not against a national healthcare program (though I am sure our government could run the worst system in the world). However, stuff like that has to be paid for, and when we exit this surreal period of borrow and spend, that will mean more taxation. More taxation does not result in more jobs in industry, not equal ones. It’s just math.
“It’s just math.”
Yes, it is just math. And the math shows that countries with universal health care spend less, TOTAL, on health care (ie it’s not shifted somewhere else- as many dissimulators imply).
Spending LESS, gives you more money to spend on other things, right? That’s how math works, right?
Simple. Basic. Math.
Maybe you are right about the cost, maybe not. Maybe it isn’t clear why the costs might be less. I still think that less benefits = more jobs. I’d rather have the benefits than the job though.
“Maybe you are right about the cost, maybe not. Maybe it isn’t clear why the costs might be less. ”
Do you REALLY want me to drag out the immense amount of statistics that show almost every country in the world pays less in total health care than us, with many having much higher life expectancies, and much higher rates of satisfaction with their current systems? AGAIN?
And are you really unclear on why our system is so expensive- with the for-profit companies cherry-picking the healthiest for coverage, leaving the elderly and infirm for the government to take care of? Is that really a difficult concept to grasp?
More taxation does not result in more jobs in industry, not equal ones. It’s just math.
Math:
“Taxes”, corporate “expense” to provide health insurance, personal “expense” for health insurance, who cares what the name for the expense is? If taxes can provide better service for less money than the current personal or business expense then let’s face the facts, become objective, rational and apolitical and go with the taxes.
Let’s compare costs and results of other countries health-care taxes with America’s health-care expenses.
USA spends $7,540 per capita on health care and 1/3 of our population is uninsured or has joke insurance. Countries with socialized medicine spend about half per person but they cover everyone and have similar results.
Not only do countries with socialized medicine spend less than half of what we do and cover everyone BUT the companies in those countries do not have to worry about providing health-insurance, therefore do not face that barrier to expand or even start out.
“Socialized” medicine nurtures capitalism better than our broken and corrupt system however even as many of our fellow citizens die because of our system, a few do get a lot richer from it.
The three most important health-care graphs in the world
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/the_three_most_important_health_care_graphs_in_the_world/2011/04/13/AFtU1E6E_blog.html
+1 Rio…
Don’t confus ethem with facts Rio. They are content to rearrange the chairs while the Titanic sinks.
I expect there are some reasons that our healthcare in the US is more expensive and, for the population as a whole, less effective. Reasons other than the lack of it being government run.
Blue skye you really need to back up your posts a bit better.
Reason’s other than lack of being gov run. Wrong Rio just pointed out that socialized and highly regulated systems are cheaper adn have comparable results. You go out and show a system that is completely free market that has better outcomes and costs less and get back to us.
Seriously you guys buy into this myth that corporations always do things more efficiently than gov. The problem is that corporations arent’ trying to be efficient at providing health care they are trying to be efficient by making a profit. They could care less about health care outcomes as long as the public is kept in the dark. The examples are endless.
1. Medicare costs tax payers 15-20% less than medicare advantage plans which are private plans designed to replace medicare. The VA is more efficient than either of these.
2. Socialized medicine in Canada, Europe, Japan costs 50% less than US and provides similar outcomes. Why because hospitals and doctors aren’t paid for doing unneeded proceedures, because they bargain with drug companies for lower costs and do cost benefit analysis, because they don’t spend 24 cents for every health care dollar on management and advertising.
It has everything to do with a non profit system or a highly regulated system.
More taxation does not result in more jobs in industry, not equal ones. It’s just math
Well it’s incomplete Math Blue Skye - As they say garbage in garbage out.
The bottom line is total costs per patient. It’s the combination of taxes and insurance and out of pocket costs not just taxes. The bottom line is these socialized medical delivery systems are MUCH cheaper and provide comparable outcomes.
So far your math and suspicions haven’t refuted that point.
“Blue skye you really need to back up your posts a bit better.”
I don’t see why, when most of the others in the conversation use insult as an argument. Some things merit rethinking from time to time. Some have never tried this exercise.
I do remember a time when medicine was not so much a for profit activity, and it worked fairly well compared to today. I have several ideas as to why, and none of them have to do with government running healthcare. This is not a forum for discussion, rather shouting down.
“I have several ideas as to why, and none of them have to do with government running healthcare. This is not a forum for discussion, rather shouting down.”
So you’re posting to tell us it’s pointless to post here? And that you could give us some answers, but you won’t bother? LOL
Ok, a few questions for you government-health-care weenies:
Does government have a magical ability to lower costs and improve quality in every industry, or only in health care?
If having the government in charge of health care is such a great idea, why not put it in charge of every other sector of the economy? Is this just one step towards imposing communism without calling it that?
If government can lower costs and improve service in health care, isn’t that a case of creating something for nothing?
If “simple basic math” shows that government produces better and cheaper health care than the free market, how is it that I majored in mathematics but cannot recall any professor saying that command and control economies create something for nothing? Actually they DO create something for nothing– for government bureaucrats at the expense of everyone else.
Is 78.3 years vs. 78.1 years a “much higher life expectancy”?
If government is so great at creating cheap, high quality goods and services, why aren’t FedEx and UPS bankrupt, while the USPS is generating large surplusses and helping to pay down the deficit?
If we spent more on housing in 2005 than other “developed” countries, does this mean we should have expanded Fannie and Freddie to increase government control over housing?
If a European country has higher gas prices than the US, should it then scrap its energy system and adopt ours instead?
Is there any such thing as a bubble in pricing of goods and services, and could such a phenomenon possibly account for differences in expenditures among countries?
Define “better”, “cheaper”, and “developed” in the context of your health-care mantra. Is Russia a “developed” country? Would you go there for health care? Or are these words like global warming/climate change, that mutate to fit the facts?
Are you admitting that government health care does not work well in “undeveloped” countries?
For that matter, define “health care”. Does it include acupuncture, massages, physical trainers, marriage counselling? Is the government going to give us better and cheaper versions of these things too?
I would bother, but it seems the minds of my friends here are made up on this one.
Ok, a fewcombative, straw-man laden, hyperbolic, ideology driven, insulting and borderline moronic questions for you government-health-care
weenies:proponents.Fixed it as much as something like that could be.
But here lies some answers to rational questions on the debate:
The Health of Nations
How Europe, Canada, and our own VA do health care better.
http://prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_health_of_nations
Medicine may be hard, but health insurance is simple. The rest of the world’s industrialized nations have already figured it out, and done so without leaving 45 million of their countrymen uninsured and 16 million or so underinsured, and without letting costs spiral into the stratosphere and severely threaten their national economies.
Even better, these successes are not secret, and the mechanisms not unknown. Ask health researchers what should be done, and they will sigh and suggest something akin to what France or Germany does. Ask them what they think can be done, and their desperation to evade the opposition of the insurance industry and the pharmaceutical industry and conservatives and manufacturers and all the rest will leave them stammering out buzzwords and workarounds, regional purchasing alliances and health savings accounts. The subject’s famed complexity is a function of the forces protecting the status quo, not the issue itself.
LOL, I do wonder why those who can get it carry private health insurance so that they do not have to rely on rationed care, in Canada. Especially those dreaded public union folks. Insults and Experts abound, but familiarity, not so much.
“If having the government in charge of health care is such a great idea, why not put it in charge of every other sector of the economy? ”
Maybe health care, like the military, shouldn’t be a business.
LOL, I do wonder why those who can get it carry private health insurance so that they do not have to rely on rationed care, in Canada.
What the heck would you be laughing at? Basic Universal “socialist” coverage with the option to buy private supplemental coverage would be fantastic. France does it and is voted #1 in Healthcare by the World Health Organization.
Read the article I posted above; The Health of Nations
And the Canadian “rationing” talking point is B.S. The USA “rations” more than Canada.
From the article:
Sadly for those invested in this odd knock against the Canadian system, the wait times are largely hype. A 2003 study found that the median wait time for elective surgeries in Canada was a little more than four weeks, while diagnostic tests took about three (with no wait times to speak of for emergency surgeries). By contrast, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development data from 2001 found that 32 percent of American patients waited more than a month for elective surgery, and 5 percent waited more than four months. That, of course, doesn’t count the millions of Americans who never seek surgery, or even the basic care necessary for a diagnosis, because they lack health coverage. If you can’t see a doctor in the first place, you never have to wait for treatment.
Next?
Does government have a magical ability to lower costs and improve quality in every industry, or only in health care?
——————–
magical no. Gov’t will also not improve quality of care across the board, but rather will level or even out the quality of care received between the poor and the wealthy. The wealthy might get worse care than they currently do, if they choose against having additional private coverage.
If having the government in charge of health care is such a great idea, why not put it in charge of every other sector of the economy?
————–
Depends on your opinion about health care. Is having access to health care a right or a privledge? In my opinion, gov’t should subsidize or provide rights and regulate privledges. How about a sports car?
If government can lower costs and improve service in health care, isn’t that a case of creating something for nothing?
———-
Not necessarily. They could redistribute it in a more efficient way (no 10X bill just for visiting the emergency room for example)
Is 78.3 years vs. 78.1 years a “much higher life expectancy”? No.
If we spent more on housing in 2005 than other “developed” countries, does this mean we should have expanded Fannie and Freddie to increase government control over housing?
==========
. Should owning a home be considered a right or a privledge? Gov’t should subsidize rights so that they are generally applied equally across the population, and regulate privledges.
If a European country has higher gas prices than the US, should it then scrap its energy system and adopt ours instead?
———————————–
Depends on your goals again. The price of oil is set in a global market, so any difference is price is due to gov’t regulation (and transport and refining costs to a minor degree). The EU considers driving a privledge and not a right, so they should charge whatever taxes they feel appropriate.
This is not a forum for discussion, rather shouting down.
+1, Blue Skye. It’s quantity not quality- the same mindless propagandizing by the same bunch over and over. A year or so ago I offered to go over some specific case studies of medical treatment with Rio. He wasn’t interested. And I haven’t seen any of my questions above answered in the follow-ups.
Comment by LehighValleyGuy
Ok, a few questions for you government-health-care weenies:
Does government have a magical ability to lower costs and improve quality in every industry, or only in health care?
Not health care. Health INSURANCE. Quality of insurance is based on pools sizes and risk, not on quality of the actual care. Because larger pools spread risk, and a whole country is the largest pool there is, then YES, government does have a magical avility to improve ability to pay.
And to relate health insurance to health care: better health insurance leads to better health care simply because doctors spend a lot less time and aggravation on getting their damn bills repaid. And more people can go for care, which is preventitive. Less stress overall is healthy in itself.
If having the government in charge of health care is such a great idea, why not put it in charge of every other sector of the economy? Is this just one step towards imposing communism without calling it that?
It’s what I said above. This is insurance. The virtue of government health insurance is in its pool size. In industries which produce products rather than insurance, then some form of competition produces the best products. This helps to answer questions below.
If government can lower costs and improve service in health care, isn’t that a case of creating something for nothing?
Yes. You are creating the improved insurance — and therefore improved care — simply by using the large risk pool WHICH ALREADY EXISTS. Yes, you are creating something from nothing. More accurately, you are creating something by removing a negative. (that negative being a patchwork of smaller pools.)
If “simple basic math” shows that government produces better and cheaper health care than the free market, how is it that I majored in mathematics but cannot recall any professor saying that command and control economies create something for nothing? Actually they DO create something for nothing– for government bureaucrats at the expense of everyone else.
Because all that fancy educatin’ didn’t teach you critical thinking.
Is 78.3 years vs. 78.1 years a “much higher life expectancy”?
What are you, a death panel?
If government is so great at creating cheap, high quality goods and services, why aren’t FedEx and UPS bankrupt, while the USPS is generating large surplusses and helping to pay down the deficit?
Again, because government provides INSURANCE, not widgets or standardized services.
If we spent more on housing in 2005 than other “developed” countries, does this mean we should have expanded Fannie and Freddie to increase government control over housing?
You conveniently leave out that during your time frame, Fannie/Freddie were a private entity that failed. You also leave out too-big-to-fail and other financial shenanigans that do not happen in health insurance.
Also note that government health insurance will NOT be an expansion. You’re just sewing a bunch of already existing patchwork pieces onto one quilt so that the pieces are easier to keep track of. The size of the whole will not change. If anything, it will shrink a little.
If a European country has higher gas prices than the US, should it then scrap its energy system and adopt ours instead?
I’m surprised they haven’t.
Is there any such thing as a bubble in pricing of goods and services, and could such a phenomenon possibly account for differences in expenditures among countries?
The housing bubble was created because people sold loans up the food chain. As far as I know, nobody was selling healthy people up a food chain. And if Europe managed to avoid a health-care cost bubble, then we should take tips from them, instead of pretending that “we have the best health care system in the world.”
Also keep in mind that the US historically has the most infrastructure as a modern society, which allowed us to spend the most on cutting edge research. If your country still can’t get toilets to everyone, you tend not to invent double bypasses. Cutting edge is not expensive because of a price bubble. Cutting edge is expensive because there is a low success rate for proof of concepts, and concepts which were proven haven’t been automated or optimized. It’s easy to for other countries to look efficient when they buy a finished optimized procedure off the shelf instead of inventing it.
Define “better”, “cheaper”, and “developed” in the context of your health-care mantra. Is Russia a “developed” country? Would you go there for health care? Or are these words like global warming/climate change, that mutate to fit the facts?
In government’s view of For the People, “better” is reaching more people with basic care, not reaching the rich with more expensive care. “Cheaper” comes from less profit for the CEO’s. Hell, knocking out the lobbyists alone will probably save hundreds of lives.
Are you admitting that government health care does not work well in “undeveloped” countries?
You are confusing government health CARE with government health INSURANCE. The US still has a good health care structure. They just need a better payment system. Also, consider that “undeveloped” countries tend to have undeveloped and uncaring oligarchies who don’t much care about the health of the poor. If they don’t want the people to be healthy, the people won’t be healthy, even if the dictator’s manse is made out of enough gold to pay for it. Bad health care for the masses is part of the definition of “undeveloped.”
For that matter, define “health care”. Does it include acupuncture, massages, physical trainers, marriage counselling? Is the government going to give us better and cheaper versions of these things too?
See my insurance comments above.
A year or so ago I offered to go over some specific case studies of medical treatment with Rio. He wasn’t interested. And I haven’t seen any of my questions above answered in the follow-ups. LehighValleyGuy
Get over yourself LehighValleyGuy. I’ve provided links to countless independent studies, articles, facts, figures, comparisons and analysis supporting universal healthcare, proving my points, answering your questions and addressing the issue. You have not. You have never shown studies, facts and figures supporting the argument that USA’s health-care system is superior overall. Never. Why? Because you can’t. Do you understand my statements? Do you understand the meanings? Does the truth in my statements mean I am “shouting you down” or calling you names?
I even posted two links today supporting my position and answering your “questions”. You have not.
Most of your combative, straw-man laden, hyperbolic, ideology driven, name calling and insulting questions were answered in the two links I presented today. I suggest you read them and look at the numbers objectively.
This is not a forum for discussion, rather shouting down. Blue Skye
I did no shouting at you Blue Skye. If you call being proven wrong by facts, figures and studies being “shouted down”, that’s your and LehighValleyGuy’s deal not mine.
oxide
Excellent answers to LehighValleyGuy’s marginal questions oxide. You have patience.
But I doubt ideology driven people will consider them objectively when they don’t even objectively consider the math on the subject.
I hate to ‘high-five’ one of the ‘usual suspects’, but- Great answers, Oxide!
Thanks for emphasizing the important difference between health care and health insurance- an important point.
I’m going to try to address the few substantive responses that I see here. You guys have proven two things: 1) you get very angry when your religion is challenged, 2) you have a lot more time on your hands than I do.
Not health care. Health INSURANCE. Quality of insurance is based on pools sizes and risk
Then by that logic the government should also have a monopoly on life insurance and property and casualty insurance. Aren’t those basic needs too? If someone dies w/o life insurance, or loses a house in a fire w/o homeowner’s insurance, don’t people then become a burden on others?
The housing bubble was created because people sold loans up the food chain.
Put another way, government policy allowed and encouraged people to buy stuff without paying out their own money. This is also what has happened in health care, with the constant policy emphasis on “third-party payors.”. From the HMO Act of 1973 onward, government incentives have been given for insurers, reducing or eliminating individuals’ need to budget for expenses. Government insurance of course makes this problem even worse, because government is even less responsive to market conditions than are corporations.
You guys have proven two things: 1) you get very angry when your religion is challenged,
1. It’s not our religion. Religion cannot be proved or disproved by studies, logic or math. However universal health care being cheaper, more comprehensive and superior for the majority of populations can be proven, as we have, by studies, logic and math.
2) you have a lot more time on your hands than I do.
That is inconsequential to the argument. More time would not help you prove your position because in the face of studies, logic and math, your position is untenable.
To Rio, the best rebuttal & dialog “statesman” on the HBB blog!
x3 cheers!
Then by that logic the government should also have a monopoly on life insurance and property and casualty insurance. Aren’t those basic needs too? If someone dies w/o life insurance, or loses a house in a fire w/o homeowner’s insurance, don’t people then become a burden on others?
Government DOES provide life insurance, in the form of Social Security. Kids whose parents die are given SS until they are 18. Widows collect their spouse’s SS. Casualty insurance is covered by Medicaid or SS disability if necessary. Other forms of casualty are generally low-risk, not “needed” or not so expensive. Car insurance isn’t that expensive because the replacement cost for a car is limited.
Fire insurance is a much lower risk because so few houses burn down, so it is not necessary to have such a large risk pool. If we knew all that everybody’s house would eventually burn down the way we know we’re all going to get sick, then yes, you probably need at least state-wide fire insurance. By the way, for other natural disasters, government DOES provide insurance. There is a public option for hurricane insurance in Florida. And for every Administration who is headed by someone with a name that is not George W. Bush, FEMA is a sort of insurance too.
The housing bubble was created because people sold loans up the food chain.
Put another way, government policy allowed and encouraged people to buy stuff without paying out their own money. This is also what has happened in health care, with the constant policy emphasis on “third-party payors.”. From the HMO Act of 1973 onward, government incentives have been given for insurers, reducing or eliminating individuals’ need to budget for expenses. Government insurance of course makes this problem even worse, because government is even less responsive to market conditions than are corporations.
All this evil “government” activity that you are shouting about was perpetrated by REPUBLICANS and their lobbyist corporate paymasters; I would hardly call it good governance. You’re letting Republicans give the “government” umbrella a bad name and then throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
Down goes Frazier!
Sheesh- I haven’t such an arse-whoopin’ since ‘heavyweight’ meant something.
Sorry, Lehigh- You floated like a bee, and stung like a butterfly.
All kinds of theories out there, and all lead to a dead end/non-solution. We live in a two-party Fascist Dictatorship. Nuff said.
We had to drop our individual Kaiser coverage effective June 1st.
We’re in a health insurance crisis with 78M Baby Boomers aging. How many of them are in good health? Can we write off a health credit for using our treadmill daily?
And I remember when Kaiser was considered the “dirt cheap” insurance.
“We’re in a health insurance crisis with 78M Baby Boomers aging”
Once they run out of money (sell the house, empty the 401K, etc.) they can just go into a corner, curl up and die. They’re only serfs after all.
We get critiqued here in Canada about our health care maybe taking a couple of months before a major operation can be scheduled.
Funny thing - we doooo get the operation and good quality of care to go along with it.
If I lived in the states and had insurance would it cover me? Without insurance could I afford it?
How long is the waiting list for a person with no insurance? It is until you can afford to pay or until you die.
Canada rations its health care but allocates based on threat to life. If you happen to have a life threatening condition, you don’t wait. If you have a need for an elective treatment, you wait until there is a slot available. Not perfect, but pretty good at keeping the population healthy enough to pay taxes.
It was earlier than usually, but fast food places hire more for the summer season. Then in the fall the hours will probably get cut. For part-time employees, there may not be enough hours a day to make the drive worthwhile.
McJobs don’t buy houses. Or new cars. Or big TVs. Or expensive medical insurance.
Obama Tells Companies to ‘Step Up’ and Hire Workers
Echoes of FDR.
In the end he had to have the government create jobs.
(Wiki)
The Works Progress Administration (renamed during 1939 as the Work Projects Administration; WPA) was the largest New Deal agency, employing millions to carry out public works projects, including the construction of public buildings and roads, and operated large arts, drama, media, and literacy projects. It fed children and redistributed food, clothing, and housing. Almost every community in the United States had a park, bridge or school constructed by the agency, which especially benefited rural and Western populations. Expenditures from 1936 to 1939 totaled nearly $7 billion.[1] The budget at the outset of the WPA in 1935 was 1.4 billion dollars. It provided work for three million “employables” at this time, however there were an estimated 10 million unemployed persons at this time.[2] By 1943, the total amount spent was over $11 billion.[3]
Here in Tucson, the WPA-built sidewalks are still in use. You can see them south of Downtown in the Armory Park neighborhood.
And our very popular Sabino Canyon recreation area? With its very pretty road and bridges over Sabino Creek? The CCC boys built all of that.
This got my attention:
Expenditures from 1936 to 1939 totaled nearly $7 billion.
Those are 1930s dollars. That amount is just breathtaking.
A VAT tax and oil tax a cut in payroll tax and tax breaks for manufacturing and gov spending on infrastructure and energy efficiency would have done a much better job of fixing our economy than handing piles of printed cash to the richest 1% and then lending them money and letting them manipulate markets with speculation.
A gov of by and for the elite.
You have problem with Corporate Communist Capitalism©®™, comrade?
Maybe time in financial Siberia change your mind, yes?
Let’s see..
Less than 1 fire a month. Over $2 million in pay/benefits and pensions per year. Insane work rules.
We have come to the point with public unions that it would be cheaper to let houses burn to the gorund and rebuild them new than to pay for a fire department.
And this is a town of about 10,000. Multiply by 100-1000 for other cities in the state.
————————
Town Firemen Do Ten Total Fires and $30K in Average Overtime Each
Michigan Capitol Confidential | 5/12/2011 | Tom Gantert
There are nine firefighters working for the Superior Township fire department. And all were paid more in 2010 than the supervisor, thanks to an average of $29,662 per person of overtime.
It wasn’t because of an unusually high amount of fires. Superior Township had 10 structure fires in 2010. Instead, it’s because anytime any firefighter takes a vacation or misses a day of work, his spot is automatically filled using overtime due to what is referred to in the industry as “minimum staffing.”
Superior Township Supervisor William McFarlane made $73,603 in 2010, according to financial documents released by the township. The nine firefighters’ pay in 2010 ranged from $76,623 to $97,579. One firefighter took home $44,016 in overtime.
Support Union Labor….. it’s the right thing to do.
Do the unions set the staffing levels as well?
“Insane work rules.”
Most firefighters don’t have insane work rules that mean they don’t have to put out fires.
Unlike some other public trades.
So you will be hiring your own private fire dept, 2banana?
Just FYI after you turn off your neocon brainwash channels for the days, most fire depts in this country are voluntary or indy small towns units without unions.
But feel free to hire your own fire dept and then you better hope those $12hr firefighters have had good training.
I’ll just be over here ROTFLMOA.
If they did not put out a fire, would it spread to the whole neighborhood? My guess is that a lot of house fires are total losses and they are not expecting to save the house that is on fire. They do expect to save the one next door.
In much of the Western US, summer is fire season. Some fires don’t die out until the fall rains come. What would be the effect of letting fires burn in Los Angeles or San Diego on a fine summer day?
Condo prices here in Salinas have crashed in many areas. Problem going forward, how many will be owner occupied and how many will be rentals. What will be HOA fees and will rental units be paying up.
Housing pricing is still being inflated on the books and asking prices. Usually in the area of $200K or more over appraisal. Found a RE who can track any house and tell me if the owner is underwater and what houses in the neighborhood is selling for. RE says to wait probably two years for best pricing in best neighborhood.
My favorite stat now is the length of time on the market, which many RE’s are now trying to hide, and the number of viewings per time on the market. Most RE’s do not put for sale signs out to make buyers think the market is just fine. There are some great houses in San Juan Bautista, but the area is gated (fees), sits right on the fault line and 13 out of 14 houses to come on the market are in foreclosure.
There are some great houses in San Juan Bautista, but the area is gated ??
Where ??
Headed off the 101 toward Hollister on the south side (opposite the town of San Juan Bautista). Are on 1/2 acre, 2500 sq.ft. and larger, some with mother-in-law quarters. As I recall HOA fees around $240 a month.
Do you recall pricing ??
I checked some past listings:
152 via vaquero sur, san juan bautista
6/24/2004 sold $804,500
1/20/2010 sold $588,800
2/24/2011 sold $515,00
Fees $242 month
5 bed/4bath/3611 sq.ft.
Property tax $7006/year
IIRC some were in the $400’s before data pulled.
Second listing:187 el circulo del real, SJB
sold 2/17/2006 $1,450,000
sold 3/20/2011 $1,115,856 (public record)
listed active 4/26/2011 @ $612K
6bed/5bath/4746sq.ft.($129/sq.ft)/1/2acre lot
sold 3/20/2011 $1,115,856 (public record)
listed active 4/26/2011 @ $612K
———-
By what mechanism would someone buy a home in March and re-list it in April at half price? Something with the way the gov’t records short sales?
By what mechanism would someone buy a home in March and re-list it in April at half price? Something with the way the gov’t records short sales?
I think this happens with REO’s. Anyone?
Second listing:187 el circulo del real, SJB
listed active 4/26/2011 @ $612K
6bed/5bath/4746sq.ft.($129/sq.ft)/1/2acre lot
——–
Also just for fun computing the CA/near-a-beach adjustment: Where I live, this house would be $450k with $11k in taxes per year.
If it was foreclosed upon, the credit bid by the bank may have been for the debt amount of $1,115,856. So it may show up as a sale at that price, regardless of market value.
Some nice condo’s listed in Salinas around $80K. Two bedroom 1000+ sq.ft. off North Main.
Sounds about right for Salinas. Tuscon is cheap too.
Construction has stopped on the golf course that Tiger Woods designed for an upscale community near Asheville. Only 42 lots sold out of over 1,000 platted, and only one house completed since the community opened with great fanfare in 2007.
http://www.citizen-times.com/article/20110512/SPORTS/305120043/Tiger-s-High-Carolina-construction-hold?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Frontpage
“Last month the Greenville (S.C.) News reported that (the developer, Jim) Anthony was negotiating with a lender to avoid foreclosure on 100 Cliffs properties in S.C. on a $20 million note that had a $17 million balance.
“After an incredible run of success with his early Cliffs ventures — really good, playable courses that spared no expense with maintenance and amenities for those wealthy enough to live there — it looks like Anthony has run out of luck and money.
“And just like the can’t miss partner he hooked up with at High Carolina, the future looks much less promising for a pair who appear to have peaked in their professional careers.”
It’s amusing how they overestimate the supply of well heeled retirees.
Here in AZ, there are more than a few cases where the well-heeled retirees find themselves less well off after one of them (and I’m referring to couples here) experiences an expensive final illness. The surviving spouse then gets a harsh lesson in frugal living.
Just wait until Medicare is put out to pasture. A lot of folks who thought they were “rich” will be in for a very rude surprise.
“It’s amusing how they overestimate the supply of well heeled retirees.”
I’d call it poetic justice.
Bill, I’ve been doing my research on the W NC/SC areas and it has been most interesting and informative. I am actually shocked, I tell you, shocked by how much cheaper it is to rent than to buy, at least in the Asheville area. Greenville is a bit different. But the price of buying a halfway decent home in the Asheville area (western North Carolina in general) seems rather high, compared to West Central Florida, at this point in time. Rents, however, range from being comparable to bargain priced.
Utilities? Wowie! I complain about power here during the summer. Not even close to what people pay about seven months of the year in Western NC. Outrageous. And all those hybrid heating systems. Heat pumps, but those are only effective down to a certain temp. Then, there’s oil heat. Or propane. Or “gas logs”, whatever those are, I have no idea. Electric baseboard heat. Solar. And, as a last resort, the trusty wood burning stoves.
Western NC raw land prices seem to be cheaper per acre than West Central Florida, improved land is a different story, though. And “structures” seem to be more expensive in Western NC. Of course, lots tend to be larger, although I’m sure some of that acreage is not usable even for parking.
It’s puzzling to me why prices for homes are so much higher in the mountains of western NC. Hendersonville, Cashiers, Highlands, Brevard to name a few were well out of our range when we looked in 2005.
We have a heat pump system for our house, with electric resistance backup. Not being in the mountains, we’ve only had maybe six or eight nights in six winters where the temp got below 20 degrees overnight and the heat pump was running constantly, with the resistance heat cycling on and off, by morning. Where we are, the “normal” winter sees about 10 nights where the temp drops below 30, and zero days where the daytime temp doesn’t get into the 40s. Modern heat pumps work just fine in that environment. Electricity here is about 8.5 cents per KWH. No gas, so electric is our only energy bill.
Daffodils open in late January, the dogwoods and Azaleas bloom in March to early April, and the trees are leafed out by mid April. We’re already getting day lily blooms. I get the boat serviced in late March ‘cuz the recreational boating season kicks in by late April. The fishermen are out there year ’round of course.
Nothin’ could be finer…
Here’s an example: asking $669K for 2300sq.ft. built in 1986. Added to site 29 days ago and 150 total view. Taxes in 2010, assessed value $360,225 (fair value) was $3994. At the current asking pricing taxes would be estimated to be $557.50 per month, and the mortgage payment with 20% down would be $3934 per month. Bottom line is we still have a lot of label chasers thinking that property like this will only go back up, but the good thing is they don’t qualify for the loans.
The MSM finally gets it, or at least some of it:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/11/business/economy/11leonhardt.html
Plus, here’s their online rent vs. buy calculator:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html
IAT
That’s a really cool tool, but it doesn’t take utilities into account on the rental side (I added that to rent) or condo/HOA fees on the buying side. They also think that utilities in a house are ~$100 a month. They also don’t take into account location, trading up or buying drapes and furniture. Sure, if you go from renting a big house to buying a cheap condo, buying is better. But if you want to move from an apartment to a single-family home, the calculator says that you need to stay in the home for 16 years for it to pencil out. Don’t forget the rental increase slider…
Even when I lived in Ohio in 2008, my rent was $700 a month cheap and didn’t go up. My little dream houses were listed at $150K. Even then the break-even point was 16 years. Good thing I kept my mobility.
There is a button to click for advanced settings that lets you mess around with other numbers like how much the house will cost on average in maintenance.
I played around with it, assuming the $350K asking price for the condo that I mentioned earllier in the week and my current rent with 3% increases for rent. No matter what I did, I ended up with it being cheaper to rent for at least 17 years and once it went up to 31 years (I think that one assumed 0% increase on the condo price). I have to admit, I didn’t try plugging in 5% increases in the home value every year or anything like that. Didn’t even consider needing to park at Metro station at the other place and not really needing a car at all in my current place.
I don’t think I need to be in much of a hurry.
How many of you agree with this prediction?
“Made in America”: The Comeback
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/made-america-comeback-125318772.html%20?sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Maybe one day when:
Public unions have been reigned in/universal right to work
Tort reform passes
Government spending is equal or less than government revenue
Until then - there are better places to go for manufacurers even with a low dollar…
Tort reform. Chuckle. Wasn’t that the war cry in 2004 when, surprise, two lawyers were running on one ticket? After the election:
chirp, chirp…..
chirp, chirp…..
Nothing but crickets. Talk about a red-herring.
Go look up one of the top money contributors to the democrat party.
I will give you the answer to make it easy in your google search
Trial Lawyers.
I don’t find that to be unexpected in the least. (Now you’re throwing the red-herrings)
Nor is it the point. The Rs ran on a campaign of tort reform. Personally, I think it was brilliant strategy. Get millions of people to think lawyers are our biggest problem. (”And these two lawyers want to run our COUNTRY! The horror!”)
But it was still a red-herring. What legislation was enacted to combat supposedly the biggest threat to the country?
Yes it will be a grand world when companies build exploding pinto’s and don’t have to worry about regulation or law suits. When corporations can lie to their share holders and not worry about the law or lawyers. When toxic waste can be dumped right into a towns water supply without the worry that you’ll have to pay for it. When doctors can go play golf while you are dieing in the hospital or show up drunk to the OR w/o fear.
That’s the utopia 2banana dreams of.
I’m all for cappying the lawyers and plaintiffs take to damages plus x % but doing away with lawsuits is a mistake.
I’m all for cappying the lawyers and plaintiffs take to damages plus x % but doing away with lawsuits is a mistake.
No one is talking banning lawsuits. Reform the system to something sane like the universal health care europeans have.
Like loser pays. Cap on punitive damages. Cap on lawyer fees.
And trial lawyers have fought these reforms tooth and nail and none have passed on the federal level.
Reform the system to something sane like the universal health care europeans have.
Like loser pays. Cap on punitive damages. Cap on lawyer fees.
I would agree to all of those in exchange for European style universal health-care.
I raise the deal for allowing European speedos on men at all pools/beaches…
The loser pays system will come into law in Texas in some cases next year.
I raise the deal for allowing European speedos on men at all pools/beaches…
I never knew there was a law against that.
“Tort reform” was another rallying cry during the health care debate. When the Republicans took the House, I thought, great. They can pass a standalone bill to reform tort, and another standalone bill to “sell health insurance over state lines.” They can add that to Obamacare and see if the numbers pencil out any better.
Well we know how THAT turnedout. Rather than put their money where their mouths were, all we got was repeal repeal repeal and replace with… privatized Medicare!
I raise the deal for allowing European speedos on men at all pools/beaches…
No. That’s a deal-breaker.
Exactly why ol’ Hwy’s been “inve$ting” in “closing-up-shop” CNC & metal working equipment for the last 4 years.
(I guess I could’ve invested in “used-stucco”, naw, requires constant babysitting. Hwy’s passed that vital energy expenditure.)
They’ll just move on to the next 3rd World cesspool where the workers live in cardboard boxes and subsist on a bowl of rice a day.
They’ll just move on to the next 3rd World cesspool where the workers live in cardboard boxes and subsist on a bowl of rice a day.
Stop it. You’re getting 2banana all excited.
2banana likes to brake out his video faces of starvation disease and poverty at parties.
You mean like when Dogbert gets all excited when he’s about to do something evil, and starts wagging his little tail?
Somehow you go from $200,000/year public union lifeguards with 90% pensions to living in a cardboard box and subsisting on a bowl of rice a day.
from $200,000/year public union lifeguards with 90% pensions
Now, now slipperybanana, you forgot to mention these are NEWPORT BEACH, CA lifeguards, and where do they get the money for their $alarie$? The poor, poor, $uffering wealthie$. Oh, then “The Unreal Housewives of “The O.C.!” Yell!/Scream/Holler!… Help I’m drowning, save me, my husband just paid $35,000 ca$h for these (pick-a-size: DD-E-F-FF-G-GG-H-HH-J-JJ-K-KK-L) matching pairs! Help city-peon person!, Help!
“Somehow you go from $200,000/year public union lifeguards”
I thought it was established already that Newport Lifeguards are paid $20/hr, and that it was the head honcho with a desk at city hall who got the big payout (not saying he deserves it, but lifeguards in Newport Beach are not paid 200K).
“to living in a cardboard box and subsisting on a bowl of rice a day”
Are you saying that people aren’t living like that?
Yes, people have been throwing some hyperbole at your expense, but you have brought it upon yourself everytime you champion the cause for lower wages (or as you like to call it “right to work”).
Somehow, bananarama you go from one single lifeguard who is actually the director, to many.
You are a liar. WAIT! You must be a realtor! THAT’S IT! DOH!
I’ve posted this several times.
We’re being lied to and played for suckers by capitalists who send our jobs to communists countries and tell us to blame unions which only account for 12% of the entire workforce.
I’m looking at you bananarama.
http://abcnews.go.com/WN/MadeInAmerica/
Evidently, the U.S. is in the same position with respect to the Missisippi River that it is with the fallout from the housing bubble. Does it let nature take its course and adapt, or try to stop the deluge?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-nightmare-mississippi-flood-scenario-2011-05-12?pagenumber=2
“The Old River Control Structure was designed to maintain the bulk of the river’s flow on its current path through Baton Rouge and New Orleans. But over the past thousands of years, the river has naturally sprouted dozens of channels throughout southern Louisiana, including the Atchafalaya River, currently an outflow of the Mississippi at Red River Landing.”
“In just the past 50 years, the Atchafalaya has gradually “stolen” almost a third of the flow, and many experts consider it inevitable that the Atchafalaya will become the next pathway to the Gulf for the Mississippi.”
“We’re literally holding the river in its present course against its will. Eventually, that will have to change one way or another. According to experts, the shift will most likely happen during a major spring flood after the Corps of Engineers runs out of other options to divert water.”
“Should this highly engineered system of dams and diversions at Red River Landing fail this week (its most significant test since its creation), the Mississippi River would quickly and permanently change course to the Atchafalaya.”
“The impact would soon be felt around the world. In terms of tonnage, the two ports near New Orleans are by far the largest in the world — processing more than 200 million tons of combined trade last year and accounting for one-sixth of our nation’s export value. This is also one of the few major ports in the U.S. with a positive trade balance.”
How many of you agree with this prediction?
If we put America 1st in the priority category I think it can happen….How would two trillion of borrowed money pissed away in the mid-east have been able to improve the lot of the average american if invested here ??
Now scdave, Chinaglobalmaterialaquistionshipsquadron is very happy with the work America’s Military expenditure$ are doing to keep sea passages open & safe for global free-trade. They are however, quite pissed that they have to pay premium price$ on every barrel of oil from the middle-east Kingdoms.
I agree with it completely but I think we have to recognize that if you believe in peak oil, while we have no viable alternative maintaining oil supply is taking care of the country.
For instance, what’s going on with Japan and their economy while their energy supply has been compromised? Virtually a news blackout on that subject. Hard to separate the yen number from the impact of the catastrophes themselves but the damage is ongoing as multiple nuclear plants remain offline long term. We’ve had shift workers sent home on our shores due to the ramifications of what’s going on in Japan regarding lack of energy.
“How would two trillion of borrowed money pissed away in the mid-east have been able to improve the lot of the average american if invested here ??”<
It would NEVER have been seen by the average person.
It isn’t called “trickle down” (but it ain’t rain) for nothing.
“How would two trillion of borrowed money pissed away in the mid-east have been able to improve the lot of the average american if invested here ??”
You could have improved things a lot if invested properly or even better, not spent at all. But you couldn’t have invested a $1.25 any better than the $1.25 that was spent on the bullet the Navy Seal fired last week.
Can someone please explain to me this new cupcake craze? Or is it just another “Portland thing”?
It’s down here in Tucson too. The notion of paying five bucks or more for a single frickin’ cupcake is beyond me.
I don’t think there is any viable explanation, other than people like fads.
Personally, I don’t get the whole “gourmet cupcake” thing anyway. American cakes are oversweetened monstruosities anyway.
Oh no we’re seeing it here too. Easier at parties than cake?
It has been going on for years. It is just adults playing at being children again. Plus the satisfaction of getting to eat “the whole thing.” You generally don’t have to share a cupcake.
DC is obsessed too, especially “red velvet” ones.
Like we need more land whales.
Like we need more land whales.
Agreed.
And, speaking as one who once weighed a good bit more than I do now, food doesn’t force itself into one’s mouth. It has to be put there.
Sorry, but the red velvet cupcake at Susie Cakes is pretty good. Got one for myself and two mochas for my wife on her b-day. She only had one! And I’m rocking 12 miles per day on the bike. 22 today — Bike to Work Day was excellent.
Funny though how many single occupancy vehicles passed me going into the city. When will they ever learn? Ugh, the Kingston Trio song just ear-wormed me…
Where have all the flowers gone??
Pretty soon the media will tell everyone to leave nursing school and open up a cupcake cart.
I’ve just started a business that teaches you how to open a cup cake store and sells you the supplies.
Brilliant! Way to take advantage of the new Gold Rush!
Can someone please explain to me this new cupcake craze?
Sometimes I just feel left out.
Just send me $10 + (overnight to Brazil) shipping and handling and I’ll get one out to ya, stat.
The income made by, and the taxes paid by, the rich, in one graph
Washington Post - by Ezra Klein
http://tinyurl.com/6f83ke4
Bingo
Now Drummy will respond that the elite don’t control gov but the graph speaks volumes. Combine that graph with the one I posted yesterday showing the falling percentage of taxes corporations pay as a % of GDP and you get the real story.
Now we jsut need a graph that shows how the middle class has been paying a higher and higher percentage of the total gov tax.
Throw in the inflation tax and things are probably much worse for the fixed income fixed wage slobs in the US.
Now Drummy will respond that the elite don’t control gov but the graph speaks volumes.
And/Or he will point to an outlier–a rare occurring anomaly within the subject and attempt to use it to cast doubt on the entire proven fact.
This is a pattern.
“An Indian swami once lived for a year on a single bowl of rice- hence, anything more than that, especially for the non-productive (who will, of course, never be productive), is waste- and I refuse to pay for it.
Actually, now that I think about it, I won’t pay for the bowl of rice, either.”
“Now Drummy will respond”
Personal attacks are inappropriate. Especially when you put words in his mouth. I like hearing what he has to say, even when I disagree with him. If we want to have any chance of working toward consensus, we have to be willing to listen to each other.
BWAHAHAHicHAHAHicHAHAHAHAHicHAHAHic* (DennisN™)
Over the past 30 years, the very rich have seen their real taxes fall sharply even as they’ve seen their incomes rise rapidly.
Fill your “TrueGlenbeckinstan-Palin™” cup with “TrueAnger™” and then Yell/Scream/Holler:
Linda the Lunch Lady lives Lavishly! + food stamps! …are destroying America!
heheeeheeeheehaahaaahaaheeehaahaaa… (Hwy50™)
Marie Antoinette didn’t get it either.
I used the argument Klein is using to debate a friend who posted a pic that detailed how the top 1% are paying the same in taxes as the bottom 95%. (This was the libertarian union firefighter I described a few months back)
All I had to ask was, “Given that we know which way effective tax rates have trended the past 30 years for the top 1%, what is this graph really saying?” His graph wasn’t long for this world.
I’ll never understand why people that have NO chance to become 1%-ers feel the need to subsidize them.
“I’ll never understand why people that have NO chance to become 1%-ers feel the need to subsidize them.”
They need the paycheck?
“The O.C.!” (#1 conservative county in CA)
(Cheney-Shrub SEC “enforcer” Crissy Cox must feel safe hangin’ down on 10th St in Balboa., might step on jelly-fish. Iffin’ you own a home in Newport Beach, you figure they use property tax money for these salaries?, the wealthie$ must be full of “TrueAnger™” and $uffering $uch un$peakable agony…)
O.C.’s $200K lifeguards spark international shock:
May 12th, 2011, by Jeff Overley / OC Register
Closer to home, one Orlando blogger said this: “Lifeguards in Orange County’s Newport Beach are earning $200,000 or more a year for the rescue work on beaches where botox, breast implants and cosmetic surgery are rampant.”
The lifeguards in question are part of a 13-person management team; by contrast, the towers are staffed by 200 or so seasonal guards who make about $20 an hour, give or take.
For one, Newport isn’t alone. Huntington Beach in 2009 paid a dozen lifeguard supervisors (known as “marine safety” officers and lieutenants) more than $100,000 in salary. Specifically, they took home anywhere from $110,000 to $162,000, not counting benefits.
They receive the same pension plan as their Newport Beach counterparts – retire at 50 and get 90 percent of salary each year for life, assuming 30 years of service.
Newport actually compares favorably. In 2010, it paid eight lifeguard supervisors more than $100,000; specifically, their salaries were from $101,000 to $149,000, not counting benefits.
In both cities, overtime pay was a big factor, often reaching into the tens of thousands of dollars.
I’ll bet that a lot of those $20/hr lifeguards put in their time hoping that someday they might be able to grab the brass ring and join management and them make the big bucks.
Not all that different from the private sector when you think about it. Once upon a time supervisors and managers were only paid a fraction more than their subordinates.
Not any more.
This concept hit me over the head when Fiorina collected $40M+ when leaving HP after laying off gobs and gobs of people, many who I knew in Corvallis and I’m sure you knew in Loveland.
Shortly afterward, this specifically led to my selection of a mutual fund where the CEO was explicit in his emails about not making a certain amount more than his lowest paid employee. Made sense to me, and I’ve tried to base buying decisions on companies that embrace this “socialist” behavior ever since…
“Liberty means responsibility. That’s why most men dread it.”
~G.B. Shaw
Especially the rich.
Bernanke Cautions Against Using Debt Limit as ‘Bargaining Chip’
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke cautioned lawmakers against using the federal debt limit as a “bargaining chip” during budget talks, saying such moves could provoke market instability and harm the economy.
~ It’s about time to start stringing these fear mongering thieving bastards up, IMO. Of course congress just loves the printer.
Yo gubmint at work,low,low rates, but where are all those savvy buyers?
U.S. Mortgage Rates Fall to Five-Month Low (Bloomberg)
Mortgage rates in the U.S. decreased for a fourth week, sending borrowing costs to the lowest level since December.
The average rate for a 30-year loan dropped to 4.63 percent in the week ended today from 4.71 percent, according to Freddie Mac. That is the lowest since the week ended Dec. 9. The 15-year rate slipped to 3.82 percent from 3.89 percent a week ago, the McLean, Virginia-based mortgage-finance company said.
Falling rates helped drive demand for mortgages last week and encouraged homeowners to reduce their monthly payments. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s measure of refinancing rose 9 percent in the week ended May 6, the biggest increase in two months. Purchase applications climbed 6.7 percent, the Washington-based group said yesterday.
“Housing is more affordable than it was in several decades,” said Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “On the other hand, the number of people who can qualify for these great rates isn’t that large.”
The buyers are here:
http://www.mybudget360.com/how-much-does-the-average-american-make-in-2010-household-income-new-data-100-million-make-less-than-40000/
Banks are ‘hounding borrowers to suicide’
High Court chief breaks silence to highlight crisis of personal debt
By Dearbhail McDonald and Tim Healy May 12 2011
BANKS are driving some borrowers who can not pay their debts to suicide, the Master of the High Court warned last night.
Ed Honohan, brother of Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan, told the Irish Independent he decided to speak out against the banks and other creditors because he had dealt with several debt cases where the borrowers had subsequently taken their own lives.
He added that he also decided to speak out as many borrowers who can not repay their loans, such as mortgages, credit cards and personal loans, are being pursued by banks who have already written off the debts.
This was leading to “meaningless accountancy exercises” that were driving some people to suicide, he said.
In an extraordinary intervention on the deepening debt crisis, Mr Honohan strongly criticised banks and other creditors for pursuing “to the bitter end” debtors who cannot pay judgment mortgages.
Banks are still required to chase debts and maximise recovery from borrowers even if they have written them off in their books.
Mr Honohan, a barrister, said most of the debt cases arose due to circumstances beyond the control of borrowers — because the economy shut down as a result of the banking collapse.
He criticised the banks as he called for the updating of legislation to protect people unable to pay debts and to introduce a level of “debt forgiveness”.
He said there had been a surge not only in mortgage cases but also instances where banks had chased borrowers for personal loans and then sought for judgments to be registered against family homes.
“We can not wait for 18 months before the Government introduces new personal insolvency laws,” Mr Honohan said. He was referring to the March 2012 deadline imposed by the EU/IMF for reform of our outdated debtor’s laws.
Borrowers might think they are “outlaws in uncharted territory”, he said, but stressed that even members of the “new debt set” have legal rights.
Well, isn’t that special? People have wondered why the Irish have sort of caved in to the banks, well, they’ve been conditioned over the centuries by the Brit financial and government institutions. They’ve been conditioned to think they’re a lazy, drunken, stupid people and that they deserve the lash, both literally and figuratively.
Rather than fight back like Iceland, they’ve accepted their “punishment”. Rather than stick it up Britain’s butt, like Mexico does ours, these poor people just take it.
Palmy’s heart breaks to hear these things. I am descended from the “speckled ones”.
It’s not so much the hounding, it the fact that your credit is now tied VERY TIGHTLY to being able to get a job that pays more than min wage.
Filed under: “I wanna be the next: “I’m-The-Decider!” for this American Nation…or…”Suprise! Suprise! Suprise Mr. Carter, Shazams!”
Few Surprised s’T
rump University’ Is Sued for Fraud:By Ujala Sehgal May 07, 2011 / The Atlantic Wire
“sT
rump University,” that promises mentorships that are “the next best thing” to being sTrump’s apprentice. So far, over 11,000 people have attended, reports Marcus Baram.However, the for-profit institution is now the target of a class-action lawsuit in federal court and the attorneys general of six states are investigating numerous complaints about it, including Texas, where the Trump Organization ultimately decided not to conduct any seminars.
The lead plaintiff in the class action, Tarla Makaeff, alleges that Trump University’s mentors and associates “guide students toward deals in which they have a personal financial interest at stake — creating a severe conflict of interest, so that the mentors profit while the student does not.” Another plaintiff said the seminar promised access to “exclusive” property listings, but he found the listings elsewhere online for a fraction of the cost.
News of the lawsuit has not exactly shocked the media. Gothamist titled its report of the story: “Trump University Shockingly Sued For Trump-ness” and marveled at Makaeff’s “straight-faced” quote to the New York Daily News that she “relied on the Trump name and Donald Trump’s reputation as a real estate mogul. I expected nothing less than the best… Big mistake.” Gawker reacted to the lawsuit, “Swindled by Donald Trump! Imagine that!”
Roy Oppenheim Announces Real Estate Talk Show: From the Trenches
Join leading Florida Foreclosure Defense Attorney Roy Oppenheim and special guests CBS4 Chief Investigative Reporter Stephen Stock and Florida real estate developer Patrick Sessions in the first episode of Oppenheim’s new talk show reviewing the Florida real estate saga past, present and future; The first episode of From The Trenches will play on Oppenheim Law’s YouTube Channel starting Thursday May 12, 2011
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/roy-oppenheim-announces-real-estate-talk-show-from-the-trenches-121698608.html
Tankxs!
They should have been TBTF.
Crawford: Lawmakers ignore collapse of our banks
http://www.gainesvilletimes.com/section/24/article/50215/
Just before Labor Day weekend in 2008, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation sent out a news release announcing that Integrity Bank in Alpharetta was being shut down by regulators.
That was the beginning of a tsunami — caused by the bursting of the real estate bubble — that has swept away a large portion of Georgia’s banking institutions. In the 32 months since Integrity Bank collapsed, the FDIC has shut down 60 other state banks, largely because of bad loans made to developers and contractors.
When the wave of failures began in 2008, there were about 300 banks chartered to do business in Georgia. In less than three years, 20 percent of those banks, 1 in every 5, have failed.
Giter dun!
It started in Alpharetta…
I have nothing to add today, so I thought I’d just say hello.
I have nothing to add today, so I thought I’d just say hello.
Why are you shouting me down?
:wave:
‘Hello’ is for closers.
Pipeline- AmericanBanker
A roundup of credit market news and views
By Kate Berry and Alex Ulam
Rough Appraisal
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has accused Lender Processing Services Inc. of Jacksonville, Fla., and CoreLogic Inc. of Santa Ana, Calif., of causing $283.5 million of damages to the former Washington Mutual Inc. for failing to provide oversight of appraisal.
The agency filed a 118-page suit Tuesday against LPS for $154.5 million that says 220 appraisals performed between 2006 and 2008 contained “multiple egregious violations” of industry standards, while less than 4% conformed with professional appraisal standards.
An LPS subsidiary, LSI Appraisal LLC, engaged in improper licensing of appraisers, failed to perform site visits, used improper or unsupported comparisons of properties, failed to take into account declining housing prices and tied compensation or employment to appraisal results, according to the suit.
The FDIC, as the receiver of Washington Mutual, alleges that the losses “were a direct and proximate result” of work done by LPS.
In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday, LPS responded to the allegations, claiming that other entities provided the full appraisals on 75% of the appraisals reviewed by the FDIC.
LPS said in the filing that it “believes that any loan losses are not because of appraisal issues, but are due to the quality of underwriting by Wamu, borrowers defaulting and the weakness of the economy after the loans were made, among other factors.”
The FDIC filed a separate suit Tuesday that seeks $129 million from CoreLogic, claiming it found negligence in Corelogic’s eAppraiseIT unit after a review of 194 appraisals performed in 2006 and 2007. CoreLogic said in an SEC filing that 85% of the loans cited by the FDIC involved “desk reviews” that do not require an interior or exterior inspection by the reviewer, and that desk reviews “are more limited in scope than full appraisals.”.
Sorry Ben,this is e-mailed to me. Hence no link.
Building Wealth Through Renting
By DAVID LEONHARDT
NYT, May 12, 2011, 12:00 pm
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/12/building-wealth-through-renting
Living somewhere is always going to involve costs, just as education, health care and food involve costs. Financially, the decision to buy is basically a decision that your investment will increase in value by an amount sufficient to make up for all the additional costs of buying. (Put it this way: you’d never buy an apartment if you were staying in a city for just a week, in an effort to build equity. You’d rent — a hotel room.)
Sometimes — often — the decision to buy works out. But it does not work out far more often than is commonly understood.
Ugh, DH just came home and told me another depressing buyer story. (He’s got a friend in the business.) Kid who bought a $300k home is 25, married w/no money of his own but Dad is President/owner of a local company and just built his own million dollar place in town. Dad bought him the 3000+ sq footer as a starter home.
I was just looking at an income distribution chart from 2009 Social Security records when he came home. There are 78,147 people in the US that declared that they make more than a million/year in income. Is it possible that we’ve got a cluster here or should the question be why are all these people around me going for broke at this point in the game?
3000 sqft is NOT a starter home. Wow.
http://www.mybudget360.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/average-income-americans.png
US Income Distribution Graph per Social Security records
100 MILLION Americans make less than 40K.
That’s 2/3 of the entire workforce.
While technically middle class, it is now the lower end. They won’t be buying houses or new cars.
72 MILLION of that 100 million make $500 or less. They can barely afford used cars.
Only 33 MILLION now make up the real middle class.
We ARE a banana republic.
Editorial Board Opinion
Stick to the plan for weaning housing off federal aid
By Editorial, Published: May 12
THE HOUSING MARKET is still in deep trouble. Prices nationwide have fallen by about a third since the peak in 2006 — and they appear to be trending down again. The resulting hit to household wealth may hinder the recovery, which is already sluggish. Small wonder that various advocates for housing are once again asking Washington for help.
But in at least one area, the prescription would be worse than the disease. We refer to calls for extending the current elevated limit on the size of loans eligible for securitization by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance giants operating under government control. Congress “temporarily” raised the limit to a maximum of $729,759 in certain markets in response to the sudden evaporation of private liquidity during the 2008 crisis, but that measure is set to lapse at the end of September. At that point, the limit will not revert to the pre-crisis maximum of $417,000 in most of the country but to a level set in relation to local medians — and capped at $625,000.
Critics of the scheduled shrinkage argue that it will force up interest rates for homebuyers in relatively expensive markets, such as the San Francisco Bay area, thus forcing losses on middle-class homeowners who are trying to sell houses they stretched to buy in the first place. The effects, it is argued, will cascade throughout the housing market, since Fannie and Freddie (and other federal institutions) currently back about 90 percent of mortgages.
But the Obama administration has supported a reversion to lower loan limits as the first step in gradually reforming the mortgage security market and reducing taxpayer exposure to Fannie and Freddie. The administration’s goal is to lure cash-rich would-be mortgage securitizers back into the market, starting with the high end. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner has described this as “crowding in” private capital, and it is the rare housing policy proposal that has enjoyed a measure of bipartisan support.
…
Paul McMorrow
The Boston Globe
Slipping and stalling with housing
By Paul McMorrow
May 13, 2011
BRUTAL SETS of housing data have been rolling in over the past couple weeks. Whether from economists or real estate firms or mortgage companies on the government dole, the numbers all point in the same direction — America’s housing market is in a double-dip swoon.
If the numbers showing housing prices slumming it around their spring 2009 lows aren’t troubling enough, then the surrounding context certainly is. The federal government spent trillions of dollars lifting housing — the recession’s great instigator — out of its trough. And now that home prices have collapsed again, the feds have far fewer tools available to prop them up again.
By now, we’re all acquainted with the link between housing prices and the larger jobs picture. A booming housing market fueled a wider economic expansion, and when the housing bubble burst it caused catastrophic damage to employment and bank balance sheets. Housing gains and losses play an outsized role in the direction of the overall economy. Housing has propelled the economy out of prior recessions, and its current dysfunction is one of the culprits behind the middling pace of the current recovery.
That’s why Washington has tried so hard to prop up the housing sector.
The White House nationalized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, wrote the two mortgage lenders a blank check (the current total tops $140 billion), and told the two firms, which were collapsing, to increase their book of business.
The Federal Reserve, dissatisfied with the impact of giving banks buckets of free money, bought up $1.25 trillion in mortgage bonds, and then another $600 billion in US government debt, all in a bid to depress mortgage rates.
Congress passed a lucrative tax credit for homebuyers. The incentive pushed up prices and crammed a year’s worth of buying and selling into last spring, but in the credit’s absence, home prices have retreated to near their post-crash lows. Home prices in Massachusetts are currently off their highs by 19 percent; in Rhode Island, they’re down by more than 31 percent.
It has been five years since the housing bubble peaked, and despite all that effort from the feds, prices are still bumping along the bottom. Low values portend more defaults and foreclosures. Fannie Mae is bleeding money once again. It requested another $8.5 billion from the Treasury last week, and the company warned that low housing prices would likely lead to further losses this year. One in every five of Fannie’s loans is worth more than the house it’s tied to. For mortgages written in 2006 or 2007, that number is one in every two.
…