Local Market Observations
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Auctions? “A partially completed luxury home subdivision on Hawaii island is headed back to the foreclosure auction block after a failed gambit by the developer to retain a stake in the $100 million project through bankruptcy. Up for auction are 25 single-family home lots, land planned for eight condominium units and two completed condo units. Sales faltered with the economic recession after a strong early start that included selling one oceanfront lot for $8.5 million in 2005 and two condos that went for nearly $4 million each in 2007.”
“In all, former HBO Chief Executive Michael Fuchs was able to sell 14 lots and two condos for a combined $38 million, according to property records. But project development loans went into default in 2008 after sales stalled.”
Houses on sale? “Buyers shopping for an affordable home will find plenty of choices today, when more than 250 homes priced at less than $150,000 will host open houses during the ‘Super Sunday’ sales event. Most of the properties range from $75,000 to $140,000 and include many condominiums and homes built in the past 30 years. The median sales price of a central Ohio home in March was $119,900 - about $12,000 lower than a year ago. Many of the homes on today’s tour have likewise declined in price.”
“Gloria Henry, a Keller Williams agent in Pickerington, is showing a four-bedroom, two-bath home, with 1,500 square feet including the finished basement, sold in 2007 for $101,000. Henry is listing the home at $63,900 in a short sale, which means the bank must agree to accept less than is owed on the mortgage. ‘The home has been totally redone,’ Henry said. ‘It’s really affordable housing for any first-time homebuyer.’”
Or statistics? “Foreclosures are causing a marked rise in the number of vacant properties in the east metro and most dramatically in the city of St. Paul, according to U.S. Census data on Minnesota. The past decade saw a noticeable spike in the category the Census Bureau refers to as ‘all other vacants,’ including properties in foreclosure that are not currently for sale and not occupied. In 2000, this category accounted for 11 percent of the vacant properties in the east metro counties. By April 2010, it doubled to 22 percent.”
“This trend was particularly noticeable in the city of St. Paul, where the overall vacancy rate jumped from 3 percent to 8 percent in the past decade. The proportion that fell into the ‘other’ category increased from 14 percent to 30 percent.”
“Prices and inventories were down in the South Bay - excluding the Palos Verdes Peninsula and Inglewood. The median price of a single- family home was $505,000 in April, a 14 percent drop from the same month a year ago, according to a report to be released today by the South Bay Association of Realtors.”
“Short sales - which involve homes sold for less than the current mortgage - represented 26 percent of existing single-family home sales for March in Los Angeles County, the last month for which there is data. Short sales usually take several months or longer for banks to approve.”
“‘In other words, if one-fourth of home sales in L.A. County are short sales, then how many of those sales are stuck spinning in a hamster wheel and effectively going nowhere?’ David Kissinger, the local association’s director of government affairs, said in an email to the Breeze.”
“Kissinger added: ‘We have huge concerns with short sales because the banks and lenders appear to be dragging their feet and, regrettably, may not always be acting in good faith with borrowers in order to avoid foreclosure and keep people in their homes.’”
“Kissinger added: ‘We have huge concerns with short sales because the banks and lenders appear to be dragging their feet, regrettably, may not always be acting in good faith with borrowers in order to avoid foreclosure and keep people in their homes.’”
IOW banks and lenders are delaying procedures that allow money that is owed to them to not be paid to them.
What a shock!
BTW, I’ll be in Phoenix next Thursday evening if anyone wants to get together.
Still delusional in the very nice suburbs of DC. The other day I took a walk in Chevy Chase, MD, which is probably one of the wealthiest and most well-kept neighborhoods in the country. Two homes had For Sale signs with info, which I grabbed. I looked them up later:
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/4300-Stanford-St_Chevy-Chase_MD_20815_M54757-72154
5/3. For sale for $1.3 mil. According to Zillow, it last sold in 2002 for $850K.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/4317-Elm-St_Chevy-Chase_MD_20815_M55296-21441
5/4 For sale for $1.4 mil. Zillow says last sale was 1987 for $210K. In 2002 the Zestimate was ~$700K.
It’s a beautiful neighborhood, but not enough to justify these price tags. This neighborhood, btw, is showing estimate increases since its “bottom” in 2009.
I think the relatively low unemployment rate of D.C. Metro has a lot to do with keeping those prices high. Government work is secure these days. My old neighborhood in California at a navy base has had high house values the last few years, due to base consolidation. I think the same thing going on at Aberdeen proving grounds. Wait till economics forces across the board government spending cuts. It will happen one way or another. They going to merely significantly increase my income tax? Then I switch to another tax shelter, as does everyone else and they will have continued revenue fall.
Goverment proper doesn’t pay enough to support those kind of prices.
My guess is that government lobbyists and lawyers for various assorted law firms are the ones that do pay enough..
They going to merely significantly increase my income tax? Then I switch to another tax shelter, as does everyone else and they will have continued revenue fall ??
They are going to tax you in ways you cannot escape……..
Like I said the other day, for some people things are just hunky dory. And if you are a six figure FedGov employee (which there seem to be plenty of in the DC area) then the great recession is something that only exists in flyover country.
Civvies top out at $150K. Still not enough for a million-dollar house.
My dad was an EE at PMTC for 30 years. Worked on heat seeking missiles. Made machines that would train on his cigarette whereever he went in his warehouse sized workshop. He was a civillian working for the federal Gov.; his job and pension were never in question.
He moved to Oregon upon retirement because of ability to be state and federal income tax exempt. He and my mom enjoy nice pensions
This must be house in Pickerington, OH, that Ben’s post mentions:
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/3350-Meridian-Rd_Columbus_OH_43232_M31564-42616
Eastern side of Columbus. Lots of easy highways and open land. Looks pretty good. It would be an excellent house for a working-class household, even if they worked at the grocery store. In the DC area that would be four times the price.
Seems like we’re down to 2004 prices here. The realtors put out a big open house supplement today, and there are more houses < 200k, but they’re really old, 2/1 places around 179k which they want to say is “affordable” but really too much for local incomes.
Looks like out of staters are picking up some of the higher end finally, too many who judge prices here by prices there and *snap up* stuff. Big problem IMO.
Search your ZIP: San Diego housing data for April
By Lily Leung, UNION-TRIBUNE
Friday, May 20, 2011 at 12:31 p.m.
The U-T’s interactive spreadsheet for April housing data, San Diego County
Want to know the median price for homes in your area for April?
Search for your ZIP code in the Union-Tribune’s interactive spreadsheet of prices and sales in San Diego County.
Click here or the image on the right for the latest spreadsheet.
North County San Diego lays claim to the six largest year-on-year price declines for San Diego County zip codes from April 2010 through April 2011 — 27% or higher year-on-year median price decline in each case. Try not to catch yerself a falling knife. Homes in Borrego Springs look downright affordable at this point, provided you don’t mind living in the middle of Death Valley West.
San Diego housing data, April 2011
Row Region Neighborhood ZIP code SFR APRIL ‘10 SFR APRIL ‘11 SFR Med APRIL ‘10 SFR Med APRIL ‘11 SFR % Chg, ‘10-’11
1 North County Inland Borrego Springs 92004 14 10 $240,000 $112,250 -53%
2 North County Inland Rancho Santa Fe post office 92091 7 8 $2,780,000 $1,497,500 -46%
3 North County Inland Julian 92036 1 8 $249,000 $134,500 -46%
4 North County Coast Oceanside North 92057 63 53 $308,000 $199,000 -35%
5 North County Coast Cardiff 92007 7 8 $701,500 $470,250 -33%
6 North County Coast Solana Beach 92075 25 7 $1,325,000 $964,250 -27%
…
Do people commute to work in San Diego from Julian?
Probably, at least if they work on the eastern fringes. But a more viable outlying commuter location, where many live to balance lower housing prices against a longer commute, is Ramona, which is on the way to Julian but maybe 1/2 hour drive closer to San Diego. I know a number of folks who commute to work from Ramona to La Jolla.
“Do people commute to work in San Diego from Julian?”
I had a coworker that commuted from Julian to RB (northernmost part of the city of San Diego). There were at least two coworkers that had longer commutes at the time, maybe four.
SOL time for whoever bought the median-priced SFR in Poway a year ago — $35K down the tubes in just one year! Anyone who took the $8K tax credit as incentive to buy one of these homes last spring must really be kicking themselves about now!
North County Inland Poway 92064 29 46 $540,000 $505,000 -7%
Where I lived off Community and Poway Rd they bid them up !!
Slightly less frentic here in Moorpark CA 93021 but 400K is the sweet spot and like Poway they sell fast at that price.
Just read a Gary Shilling piece which predicts another 20% fall in RE prices 2011-2013
I see more forclorsures on Zillow in this area than I remember seeing a year ago.
Where I use to live in Phoneix home prices have collased, no bounce nothing just down. Maybe I’ll move back there and semi-retire?
Guest column: Home loans should make sense to consumers
By Lily Leung, UNION-TRIBUNE
Friday, May 20, 2011 at 4:23 p.m.
The Union-Tribune’s weekly housing profile, Five on Friday, is taking a break this week. In its place we have a column from Jim Kelly, the chief operating officer at ING Direct USA, sharing his views on a form called the Good Faith Estimate, which explains the costs of mortgages to loan applicants.
Not familiar with the form? Take a look here.
It’s long gotten heat for being confusing, and according to a recent ING Direct survey of 700 homeowners, more than half said they didn’t use the document to compare mortgages, Kelly said. One in 10 said they never reviewed the form.
Kelly, who has more than 25 years of banking experience in the U.S. and Canada, goes into detail why he doesn’t like the Good Faith Estimate and offers ways it could be improved.
The column by Kelly was edited for length and clarity.
Jim Kelly, ING Direct
San Diego housing prices fell again last month. While prices bottomed out in August 2008, prices remain much lower than they were at the peak of the housing bubble. In November 2005, the median cost of a house in San Diego was $517,500. In April 2011, the median sale price in San Diego was just $321,750.
With such low prices, it’s understandable why some San Diegans are looking to purchase a home. Mortgage rates are historically low, too, so many residents are also looking to refinance. But while Americans have made a national sport of hunting down the lowest price of everything from computers to airline tickets, few comparison-shop when it comes to the biggest expense of their life – a home.
…
County, state home sales plunge
Erick Galindo, Staff Writer
Posted: 05/16/2011 05:36:33 PM PDT
Los Angeles area home sales declined 2.9 percent in April from March, while the median home price increased 1.7 percent to $277,300, the California Association of Realtors reported Monday.
In the six-county Southern California area, home sales plunged 9.2 percent from April last year to their lowest level in three years. Statewide, sales kept dropping last month, but foreclosures made up a smaller segment of the market, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.
An estimated 35,202 new and existing houses and condominiums were sold statewide last month, which was down 3.3 percent from March. The sales figure was down 6.1 percent from April 2010.
The median price for a home in the state was $249,000, unchanged from March but down 2.4 percent from April 2010. It marked the seventh straight month prices slipped from year-earlier levels.
From 2010, the median Los Angeles area price was down 2.4 percent and sales were down 7.6 percent. According to CAR President Beth L. Peerce, the rise in price shows the market has reached bottom.
“An improving economy, coupled with the steady pace of distressed sales in the market and the typical seasonal pattern in the median home price, suggests the statewide median price has reached its low point for this year and is unlikely to hit the bottom reached in February 2009,” she said. By comparison, the median price peaked at $484,000 in early 2007.
In Southern California, sales dropped 5.5 percent from March to 18,344. While the median sales price in the region was $280,000, down 0.2 percent from March and 1.8 percent from a year ago.
…
‘In the six-county Southern California area, home sales plunged 9.2 percent from April last year to their lowest level in three years.
…
An improving economy, coupled with the steady pace of distressed sales in the market and the typical seasonal pattern in the median home price, suggests the statewide median price has reached its low point for this year and is unlikely to hit the bottom reached in February 2009,” she said. By comparison, the median price peaked at $484,000 in early 2007.’
Did the CAR people ever see a change in the market that did not indicate prices were poised to rise? The detail that caught my eye was that 9.2 percent drop in SoCal home sales: Doesn’t a sizable decline in sales normally indicate a drop in the equilibrium price, soon to be reflected in home sale transaction prices?
Bay Area housing market weakens in April
May 16, 2011 | 11:00 am
The Bay Area’s housing market slipped in April, with sales for that month hitting a three-year low and the region’s median home price falling year-over-year for the seventh consecutive month.
The market has been sluggish ever since the expiration of tax credits last spring, and economic uncertainty has kept sales lackluster.
Sales fell 3.7% from the prior month and were down 3.1% from April 2010, according to real estate research firm DataQuick of San Diego. A total of 6,789 new and previously owned dwellings sold last month.
“April activity looks weak on the heels of March,” John Walsh, DataQuick president, said in a statement. “What’s clear now is that 2011 is off to a slow start, but it’s a little soon to write off the rest of the year.”
The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos in the Bay Area last month was $360,000, the same as last month and a 2.7% drop from April 2010. The median — which is the point at which half of the homes in the region sold for more and half for less — has fallen for seven consecutives months on a year-over-year basis after a solid year of gains.
…
The cheerleaders at DataQuack aren’t ready to throw in the towel on 2011 Silicon Valley home sales, just yet.
Silicon Valley home sales, prices slump in April
By Frank Michael Russell
Posted: 05/16/2011 09:47:13 AM PDT
Updated: 05/16/2011 02:21:22 PM PDT
Silicon Valley home sales were down slightly in April from a year before, and the median price for a resale single-family house in Santa Clara County dropped 4.5 percent to $525,000, according to a report today.
The number of condominiums that changed hands was up 5.2 percent, but the median price plunged 17.9 percent to $275,000, San Diego real estate tracking firm DataQuick reported.
The market in Santa Clara County reflected trends throughout the region, with Bay Area sales falling to a three-year low for an April. Overall, the volume of transactions was down 3.7 percent from March and 3.1 percent from April 2010.
“What’s clear now is that 2011 is off to a slow start, but it’s a little soon to write off the rest of the year,” DataQuick President John Walsh said in an email. “Higher job growth or lower home prices, coupled with low mortgage rates and rising consumer confidence, could still push sales well above today’s subpar level.”
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Banks Continue Foreclosure Slowdown
Home foreclosure numbers keep falling in California. Analysts say it’s ongoing fallout from last year’s so-called robo-signing controversy when lenders allegedly failed to verify foreclosure documents.
By Steve Milne
(Sacramento, CA)
Thursday, May 12, 2011
California’s home foreclosure rate in April dropped by 7% from the previous month and 20% from April of last year.
“It surprises me that this downward trend has been so persistent.”
RealtyTrac’s Daren Blomquist says banks are taking longer to foreclose on homes in California. Four-years ago, the process took about 130 days. Now, it’s more like 330 days.
“The lender is willing to wait almost a full year.”
That’s great for people struggling to keep their homes because it means they have longer to work out loan modifications.
“But on the other hand there are still a very substantial percentage of these delayed foreclosures that are going to be foreclosed on eventually. By delaying those, the market is going to take longer to recover.”
…
“The lender is willing to wait almost a full year.” ??
More & More people are starting to realize this and are choosing to pull the trigger on a strategic default…Getting foreclosed and having to move in three or four months makes it a more difficult call for some vs. staying in your house and making no payments for a year or more…
I see construction defects. I was trying to help a lady the other day who was looking for something to repair a broken sill and some water intrusion. In speaking with her, I come to find out the house is only three years old. I just looked at her and she said “I need to talk to the builder, don’t I?”
The builder is one of the majors. The poor lady was at her wits’ end. A three year old home with separating sills, leaks, etc. In her first conversation with the builder, she was told these things were “normal” and just part of routine maintenance.
I know you are in Florida Palmy but here in California there is a 10-year statute for construction defect liability…With that said, there is also a significant degree of diligence regarding preventative maintenance that a homeowner is obligated to follow…Not suggesting that your lady friend does not have a construction defect just saying that owners have maintenance obligations also, even in new construction…
“Prices and inventories were down in the South Bay - excluding the Palos Verdes Peninsula and Inglewood.
Yep. When I think of the great residential areas in L.A.,- (Bev Hills, Palisades, Brentwood, Malibu, Hermosa, Manhattan, Palos Verdes, ) Inglewood rises to the very top of the list.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/21022/still-home-sick
forecast 20% price declines in RE I like this article it’s by Gary Shilling
Thanks for the link. Yes a great article. Here are some notable hilights:
Mr. Shilling says this 20% drop will be over five years, I presume from May 2011 to May 2016, a slow drop. That is a little over 3% per year. An astute person would load up on Series I bonds to the $10,000 limit and invest the excess in two year notes and T bills.
The 20% is Schilling’s conservative estimate, so the drop over five years may be more, he points out.
Interestingly, Shilling predicts more apartment construction to house 4.5 million more renters. Shilling says he’s an advocate of investing in apartments. Kind of makes sense.
Apartment REITs are at all time highs. Shilling has a chart to show it.
“Contrary to general belief, a single-family house, excluding the effects of increasing size and general inflation, has been a flat investment for over a century (Chart 6). It does provide a place to live, but that value is offset, at least in part, by maintenance, taxes, utilities, real estate commissions and other costs. Furthermore, even with the tax deductibility of mortgage interest, renting a single-family house or apartment is cheaper than home ownership, absent price appreciation. Our repeated analyses over the years have shown this to be true, and even more so in the period of deflation we foresee when nominal house prices will probably fall on average.”
Ok the above one points back to my post that real estate is not an investment and I never heard of anyone consider it an investment until a few years ago in this bubble. Real estate is flat compared to inflation. General stock indices typically gain an annual 7% above inflation.
Thanks Cactus.
My editorializing was that one should load up on series I bonds and t-bills. That’s not Shilling’s writing. He is probably loading up on apartment REITS.
5 acres of raw land still priced at 5 times median income in rural western WA state. Every once in a while, there’s something priced below 2006 levels way, way, way out in the boondocks in tweakerville. Yawn.
We get the same here GBear…Just fantasy asking prices by sellers and just as bad are the brokers who blow a bunch of blue sky up the sellers butt…
My experience here is that if the land is held in strong hands, then its near impossible to make a acceptable deal…The deals that I see get done are with sellers that are in a tough spot financially or the property has been inherited by a group of people (children) and usually they do not live in the area so, although they may not take the offer initially, over a reasonable period of time they come back full circle and accept it…
The prices in Folsom, Ca have decreased approximately 25%. I’ve been out house hunting in Folsom since March. The majority of homes for sale are short sale. People is Folsom think they are somehow more special than every other community. Although, there is concern that the price deprications are affecting them this is a frequent topic on our local community blog. http://www.tomatopages.com/folsomforum/index.php?showtopic=34298&pid=418232&st=30&#entry418232
I made an offer on this house that was 8% less than the asking (non bank approved) price. The house has been for sale for 2 years, and the owner who lives in the bay area refused to look at the offer. The house has never been lived in, there are no upgrades & the backyard is unfinished. It’s 10 years old.
http://www.trulia.com/property/1089221785-552-Heiler-Way-Folsom-CA-95630
This is the exact same model with tons of upgrades. BUT, it has a huge power tower directly behind. I think the asking prices are still too much.
http://www.trulia.com/property/3025136485-1458-Strabane-Way-Folsom-CA-95630
Tons of FB’s in that area. I know some in Pilot Hill. They are “waiting for the market to turn around” while spending every last time, and borrowing some, in order to keep the power turned on and the mortgage paid.
The median list price for a home in our zip code (92127 — Rancho Bernardo West, San Diego) is currently $699,000. This is down quite a lot from the median list price of $1,395,000 on the MLS circa 2006:
Down by (699,000/1,395,000-1)*100 = -50%, in fact.
The $699,000 list price is also the mode for current listings, as this is the offer price on five of the 135 homes currently listed for sale.
Also of note: Four of the five homes listed at $699,000 are in 4S Ranch, with four bedrooms and over 3000 sq ft. The fifth one is slightly under 3000 sq ft, but has five bedrooms.
A couple of these home listings indicate 2006 sale prices of $845,000, implying a loss of $146,000 compared to the bubble peak price, PROVIDED A BUYER CAN BE FOUND WHO IS WILLING TO PAY FULL ASKING PRICE.