Bits Bucket for June 1, 2011
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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I’ll be traveling one more day today. I found myself in an area with poor internet connections for a few days, so I haven’t been able to research posts or moderate very well. But that should change tomorrow and I can get back to normal. For today, and today only, if you post an article you might use attribution only and not a link, as that piles up in moderation and I can’t check in on an airplane. Going forward, as always I prefer that posters use the actual link so others can refer to it and better comment. I appreciate your patience.
Have a safe flight, Ben.
Don’t talk to any Realtors on the plane. They have been known to lie.
Realtors on a Plane, sounds familiar…
Do they bite? Will Samuel Jackson star in it?
June 1, 2011, 1:06 p.m. EDT
Foreclosing on a bunch of snakes
Commentary: Oh, serpents! Thought you said it had servants
By Al Lewis
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — They say there are snake pits on Wall Street.
Chase has learned there are snake pits on Main Street too.
Last year, the J.P. Morgan Chase banking unit foreclosed on a home near Rexburg, Idaho, that is infested with garter snakes.
They slide through the yard, the crawl space, the walls, the ceilings, even across the floors. Sure, they’re harmless, but there are perhaps thousands of them. They give off malodorous secretions when alarmed, and can even leave the well water tasting a bit like the way they smell.
Two families have fled the house in scenes reminiscent of horror-film classics. One turned to a local TV station in 2006 to document the infestation, complaining of not being able to sleep at night. The video is still available on YouTube and is doing absolutely nothing for sales. Watch the video on snakes in the house.
The next family appeared on TV’s “Animal Planet” earlier this year. They said they were told the previous owners came up with the snake story to explain why they stopped paying their mortgage. But, it turns out, the story was true.
For sale: Nice house, large kitchen, several thousand snakes included.
Search “Idaho snake house” on the Internet and several intriguing posts emerge. Zillow dot com offers a sales description that mentions “a large kitchen with center island,” but nothing about snakes on the kitchen floor.
The house, built in 1920 and remodeled about five years ago, has somehow become a hibernaculum, where snakes gather en masse for winter. It’s so famously infested that Chase has taken it off the market.
Earlier this year, the five-bedroom home at 675 W. 5000 North was listed for $109,200. That’s about $66,000 below its market value. But somehow there were no takers, even in a region known for its Snake River.
…
Obviously, its market value is below $109,200. Garter snakes don’t bother me. I used to catch them when I was a kid. I once got bit - no worse than a scratch.
At least you would not have to worry about mice and hantavirus.
My middle daughter’s dream house.
She refers to them as “scale babies”.
Perhaps the word “charming” would be appropriate in the description.
Safe travels.
Watch out for the soft landing.
How housing could rebound — in 2025
“House prices have fallen further in the past five years than they did in the Great Depression – and there’s no sign the free fall is about to stop.
.
.
Going by per capita income and disposable income per employee, housing is now 24% cheaper than usual, says Dales – making houses as big a bargain as they have been since Gerald Ford was stepping in White House garbage cans.
But don’t mistake those statistics for an argument that prices are likely to rise any time soon. While house prices are now on par with levels seen a decade ago, the economic outlook for the United States and most of its citizens looks a lot less optimistic now than it did in 1999.”
“While house prices are now on par with levels seen a decade ago, the economic outlook for the United States and most of its citizens looks a lot less optimistic now than it did in 1999.”
There it is…right there.
People keep talking about foreclosure inventory, as if that’s what’s driving prices lower. They aren’t paying attention to the demand side — buyers are NOT able to afford current prices.
They also refuse to acknowledge that the foreclosures are a result of the **bubble** prices during the housing/credit bubble. The foreclosures did not just materialize out of thin air, they are a symptom of prices that are TOO HIGH for buyers to afford. Until they can correctly define the problem in this manner, we are bound to continue along with this “housing malaise,” Fools fantasize about bubble prices, thinking that our goal should be to get back to those levels, when that is exactly what caused the problems in the first place.
I nominate Bend the new foreclosure capital of the nation; With California equity locusts like ourselves losing their homes as a result of biting off more real estate than they could chew mid decade. We moved here in 2004, and had two paid off houses at one point. but somehow now we only have one paid off home; and we have done relatively well for the players here. I have a professional license and my wife and I both have jobs. I understand that people from Cali have made it difficult for traditional Bend occupants to purchase homes where they (used to) work.
And we are living free until bank forecloses on wife’s condo.
Hud sent my wife a letter stating; she could tack on her missed payments to her loan balance; or she could tack on the payments and get to them at the end of her loan term; or she could get her balance lowered.
These are offered contingent upon qualifying, although the letter states she likely is qualified for one of these options. Banks would be happy to pretend that this little payment holiday never happened. This is after 16 months w/o paying.
Of those, option C sounds best(lowering the balance). However, making 12k a year; I don’t think she can get a 2k/month, 300,000 mortgage lowered to $350/month; therefore why try? These were the financials that she was financed on originally, and those loans are gone now; those that can be had for fogging a mirror. And her credit score has dropped like a stone, missing payments on a 300k loan can do that.
Bofa has not executed a single courthouse auction since October 2010; when they rescheduled, they pushed them all out till August of this year; statewide. Yet the number of auctions scheduled stays at around 600 and is among the highest numbers in the state (Deschutes county).
Total number of properties on the market, that are not already distressed, as in NOD filed or auction bound, in the county is around 2,000. There are also 1000 or more “distressed” homes on the market. And there are ones like my wife’s, distressed but not on the market. Dont’ know how many of those there are? So if this 600 of homes to be auctioned hit the market, they will go back to the bank, kick around as REO for awhile, and then end up as Fannie or Freddie owned homesteps or homepath properties. But these numbers stay low and take anumber of years to end up being marketed by Fred or Fan.
With around a year of backlogged auctions not yet scheduled or pursued by Bofa, our market seems grim at best. 26 of the 100 or so units are currently for sale in our little hood of luxury townhomes(plus distressed units not on the market); little sales interest or activity seems to be occurring. Our neighbor mentioned wanting to sell about a year ago. They also paid 400k, kept up on mort. payments for 4 years, paid $10,000 in HOA, and have used the unit maybe 10 times total. Not the best investment.
The neighbor’s wife mentioned something classic like “Well, We are not giving it away”. Well, it is listed at 295k and is one of the highest wishing prices in the complex, another neighbor with means who really wanted out sold for 200k, having paid 360k themselves, but knowing what it was going to take to unload it. They were smart, as some have closed at 150k since. With listings for the same units range from 150k to 400k, price discovery is being slowed down by the not/ or can’t(w/o bank permission on a short sale) give it away crowd.
Closings are trickling in at about 200k, or lower. Neighbor may have to beg to even “give it away” given their reluctance to come to grips with actual prices; they are only maybe half way there on the capitulation, and chasing a moving target regarding sales prices plummeting. I guess offering to lose 100k is not quite giving it away in the eyes of a prospective buyer; when that price is 75k too high.
But we give up; just tell us when to go, Bofa; I am sure you have lots of foreclosing to do; ones waiting for auction; and the ones waiting behind them to get on the auction list; no significant additions in terms of new NOTS have been made since last October. But they are out there in droves.
Also interesting is to see the number of lots that are being let go. Some people are building mansions on these lots; more, however, are in distress. These are lots sold for 300k at the peak that are selling for 90k now. So those without building plans are largely letting these lots go.
So is the low end bouncing along the bottom decoupled from the higher end sticky buy evidently in freefall. In the community where I bought a home for 120k, there is a 3000 square foot home being offered by Fannie (homesteps program) for 155k. How does paying 120 for 1350 square feet bode for me? I know my parents bought one of these higher end homes for 325k; luckily they were not equity bandits so the home is still just as good for living in as it ever was. But so many older folks tapped their equity and are in trouble now. Or did a reverse mortgage and will not be passing on property to their heirs. But hey, they needed the money! What to do, what to do. sit and watch the carnage, as prices for the higher end will need to fall; and the impact on the starter homes remains to be seen.
The only redeeming quality regarding the prices of starter homes being around 100k; this price is well below replacement cost! but will that matter given the inventory waiting in the wings?
One position of strength is to be a landlord, because with the number of empty homes in limbo; and people flowing out of their foreclosures needing a home; rents have been rising. It is hard to find something under $1000; when $800 would have gotten you somewhere decent a year ago. This is just based on what I see on Craigslist; so the rising rents is just an anectdotal observation. Thoughts?? Missives??
I’m just really thankful you are sharing so much here w/ us Mike and giving us a window into what’s happening. Do you see any downside to waiting this out? I can’t remember if you’re in a recourse state or not. I was wondering if waiting means you’ll be on the hook for more later.
“Also interesting is to see the number of lots that are being let go. Some people are building mansions on these lots; more, however, are in distress. These are lots sold for 300k at the peak that are selling for 90k now. So those without building plans are largely letting these lots go.”
A local developer recently tried to unload thousands on lots at an auction. In his own words the results were … disappointing.
It is hard to find something under $1000; when $800 would have gotten you somewhere decent a year ago. This is just based on what I see on Craigslist; so the rising rents is just an anectdotal observation. Thoughts?? Missives??
Someone said on this blog:
We live in crap shacks at high rents while all around us homes stand empty….
And we pay top dollar for gasoline while tankers brimming with oil have to wait to be unloaded due to lack of demand.
Am I seeing a pattern?
Great post, Mike.
Yes, rents are rising, contrary to what many posters here thought, back in the bubble days. Personally, I’ve always thought rents would rise for the very same reasons we see now — there is a lag time between the time when homes are foreclosed on, and when they come back on the market, either as rentals or for-sale inventory. The Fed/govt have done everything in their power to stretch this lag time out as far as it can go. I believe we are getting near the end of the stretching, though, and more and more people realize that paying for housing is a chump’s game. Eventually, even renters will begin refusing to pay their rent. After all, why should home debtors be the only ones to get free housing?
time lag, not lag time…
When the core of your economy has been reduced to running financial scams, you can’t have a floor under the economy. And without a floor under the economy, there can’t be a floor under housing.
‘When the core of your economy has been reduced to running financial scams, you can’t have a floor under the economy. And without a floor under the economy, there can’t be a floor under housing.’
Hunker down. I think lower house prices will an effect of lower paying jobs. It is getting obvious as the months go by. Unless they offer mortgages at 0% for umpteen years……
Almost by definition, those AREN’T the core of the economy. But they have been the tail that wagged the dog. And with the big revolving door between investment banks on Wall Street, the various posts at the Federal Reserve, and in the US Treasury, I don’t think that the powers that be will be paying much attention to the real economy any time soon.
Well said, Greg.
+1
Hi there, Hwy!
If you and the family come down this way, let us know, and we’ll have a picnic/park day/beach day, if you all are so inclined — with kids, of course!
exactly. Also, NYC is behind the curve and has not yet come down an appreciable amt; even in the boroughs they think they’re special. No one by me, in Riverdale is buying, tho.
my comment was a response to CaRenter.
Gwen,
The same seems to be true for most of the “desirable” areas across the country. IMHO, it’s only a matter of time. This part of the market was saved by all the interventions, but the ability of the Fed/govt to keep housing prices artificially propped up is waning (IMO).
Same here I rent in Riverdale and I laugh when I walk past the Realtor on Johnson Ave (Halstead) and watch the prices for the listings in the window drop for the past year (some of the same places still listed though)
“They aren’t paying attention to the demand side — buyers are NOT able to afford current prices.”
I also think more people have realized after watching friends and family go into foreclosure that the comfort level that earns the “affordable” label has shifted closer to its historic norm. When buyers thought prices would go up and up forever they didn’t mind reaching when they purchased because they had a relative confidence they’re income would be doing the same. They told themselves soon they’d soon be making enough and everything would be alright. Now they have to worry about losing that job.
When I bought in ~2002, I was thinking: housing is appreciating at around +5%. “The more I spend, the more gains I’ll make when I sell… therefore stretch to buy the biggest place I can make the (fixed loan) payments on”. It had nothing to do with expectations of increased income. Strategy paid off when I sold in 2007, and cleared almost $100K tax free.
My thinking was a little different when I bought the next place in a new locale: it was all about minimizing my loan (payment) exposure- and deciding that stability for the family (neighborhood, schools, etc.) was worth the anticipated hit I was going to take on future equity losses.
My thinking was a little different when I bought the next place in a new locale: it was all about minimizing my loan (payment) exposure- and deciding that stability for the family (neighborhood, schools, etc.) was worth the anticipated hit I was going to take on future equity losses.
Cheers!
(People who “own” their decisions, a rare “commodity” on this spinning 8+ minutes of “tossed sunlight” planet.)
Redrum I bought and sold in those same years. We put a lot of money into the place. Had neighbors walking up and thanking us for making the place nice. A friend told me she almost drove off the road when she saw how much we had improved the place. Realtors came in at open house and said you have a very nice place here. We had four offers w/in days of selling.
Net result: Barely broke even.
Before that we made $83k in 2 1/2 years on a teeny little house.
It’s still location, location, location.
The more I spend, the more gains I’ll make when I sell…
Ha, this reminds me of the classic parody “There is no housing bubble!” blog, the following post in particular. I would include the link but it will end up in limbo. You can easily find it by googling.
Hi Mr. Bubble,
Prices have gone up so much in the last 5 years. I’m worried about buying at the peak and overpaying for a house. The house I’m considering is a fixer upper in North Oakland. It is 1100 sq. ft. and needs a new roof. The asking price is $675,000. What should I do?
Good question. First of all, remember, you can not over pay for a house. In fact, as I proved previously, the more you pay for the house the more money you’ll earn in the long run. I know some deluded renters are screaming at their monitors right now “that’s the stupidest thing I ever heard!” Here’s the proof. Let’s say you buy that house for 675K and we’ll be very very conservative and assume only 10% yearly appreciation instead of the industry standard 20%. After 10 years you’ll have a little over 1 million in equity (even if you negatively amortize a few hundred thousand you’re still sitting on a mountain of cash). Now, let’s say you aggressively bid 750K on this Oakland charmer. After 10 years at ONLY 10% appreciation on the higher price you’ll have over 1.2 million in profit. That’s right, you made an extra $200,000 by “overpaying” for that house. As the math above proves you can not make a mistake of overpaying for a home. In fact the only mistake would be passing on that cute Oakland home.
They also refuse to acknowledge that the foreclosures are a result of the **bubble** prices during the housing/credit bubble. The foreclosures did not just materialize out of thin air, they are a symptom of prices that are TOO HIGH for buyers to afford. Until they can correctly define the problem in this manner, we are bound to continue along with this “housing malaise,” Fools fantasize about bubble prices, thinking that our goal should be to get back to those levels, when that is exactly what caused the problems in the first place.
Bubble denial appears to be widespread throughout the MSM. It’s as if they were wearing blindfolds during the massive house price runup.
But now that house prices are falling, eek! They can’t stop writing about it.
I don’t remember the MSM wearing blindfolds during the boom years. I remember article after article about “buy now or be priced out forever,” how much above the asking price you should bid if you want to have a chance of your offer being accepted, “housing is like a merry go round, you have to get on the ride,” squirrel feeding, etc. Much of which was documented right here.
The only thing the MSM were blind to was the inevitability that it was going to come crashing down.
Well Carrie to be honest, everybody was more optimistic about everything in 1999.
On some blog somewhere, somebody made an insightful comment. When he was watching The Matrix again a few years back he noticed the line that “In 1999 we had reached the pinnacle of our humanity and we celebrated our own magnificence.” Maybe we DID reach the pinnacle of humanity in 1999, at least in the US.
That’s funny because I distinctly remember sitting in my kitchen in my little house on the Cape and saying to my husband that something was not right with the system and the bottom levels were getting hit first but how could the elite not see that that was going to only drift upward and soon there’d be nothing to support the infrastructure?
What set that comment in motion was the escalating numbers of “worker bees” leaving the Cape as their apts were being converted to either something way more expensive or condos. Some talented people had moved multiple times and were giving up and not only leaving the Cape but the state. Gheesh and that was even before 9/11 and the great Greenspan liquidity explosion.
Discussion in my kitchen took place in Fall of 1999.
Maybe we DID reach the pinnacle of humanity in 1999, at least in the US.
I always thought in some ways things peaked around 1963-1964.
On CNN, Robert Reich talked about how the banks should have forgone principle on house loans in exchange for the bailouts of ‘08.
I laughed for a whole 5 minutes.
Also, they claimed Seattle and DC have not had price collapses like the rest of the country.
They are right about DC.
I’m trying to figure out how to discuss the DC dilemma without the thread turning nasty and political. Let’s be honest, there are secure government jobs, and relatively secure contractor jobs, and many lawyer-lawyer couples who bring home $400K.
But that doesn’t explain the houses I walked by in tony Chevy Chase doubled from $600K to $1.3 mil in the space of 5 years. Even lawyers haven’t gained that much income that fast.
And all the high-flying doesn’t affect the low end of the scale. Last week Ben posted a reference to a $64K SFH outside of Columbus, Ohio. It would be a great place for a couple who works at Costco. But in the DC area, that same house would be $289K, and it would be a rowhouse. And Costco doesn’t pay any more outside of DC than it does just outside Columbus. So in DC, that same couple can’t buy; they are stuck paying rent that’s too damn high. It’s as if every FB is waiting for those two lawyers to show up and “buy down” to their lower-middle class house, and pricing accordingly.
I understand the run-up in housing; what i don’t understand is why DC isn’t running down like the rest of the country. Jobs were secure 20 years ago, yet back then housing was in line with those secure incomes. What is happening now in DC that’s so special? Credit isn’t any easier in DC (for individuals) than it is in, say, Houston. What makes housing prices go down? Is lack of demand enough, or do there have to be actual foreclosures?
Wouldn’t the common sense conclusion be that if you work at a Costco-grade job, you should move somewhere like Ohio instead of living in the DC area or one of the other stubborn bubble regions like Silicon Valley?
Yes, it would be. And it wouldn’t surprise me if lots of Americans come to that exact conclusion themselves. I expect to see very stiff competition for Costco level jobs in cheaper but very pleasant cities, like the Upper South or the sticks of Northern California or fruit-growing areas of Michigan.
Follow the Amish and the retirees. Amish know the land, and retirees shop at grocery stores and Wal-mart.
Also known as the Oil City Plan.
But that doesn’t explain the houses I walked by in tony Chevy Chase doubled from $600K to $1.3 mil in the space of 5 years. Even lawyers haven’t gained that much income that fast.
I have longtime family friends who live in Chevy Chase. They live in one of those marvelous old three-story houses with books and magazines on every available flat surface. (My friends are avid readers. That’s why we get along so well.)
Any-hoo, the affluence of the area was quite striking to Yours Truly. I couldn’t imagine that government work paid that well. Even at the high-level official level.
Then I figured that the private sector may have something to do with that affluence. As in, private law firms, lobbying shops, PR/issues management agencies, etc.
BTW, the man of the house mentioned above is a tax attorney. He’s a partner in the firm that, ISTR, his father founded. And both dad and son are utterly lacking in that “I’m important!” pretense that’s so prevalent in DC.
Well the lower end in the DC suburbs (I live in College Park, MD) HAVE collapsed. But there aren’t enough genuinely wealthy people to justify all those circa $1 million homes in the suburbs. So I have to belive that crappy, unaffordable in the long term mortgages are behind those prices. Those areas haven’t fallen much. I have to belive that the reasons are:
1. A fair number of these people had savings that they’re burning through. Those that didn’t had good credit and they’re burning through that too. The alligator may be bigger, but they have more to feed it.
2. Their previous good credit means that the banks too are more reluctant to foreclose. The illusion is that these heretofore “responsible” people will be able to catch up on any missed payments or delinquincies. The ammounts involved are more as well, making the losses more difficult to realize. They’re also better at playing legal games than poor people.
And you’re right DC jobs aren’t more secure than they were 20-30 years ago, but like pensions, everybody else’s situation has gotten worse by comparison.
I live in Wheaton, just around the beltway from you. The decline can be seen, it’s just happening slower than everywhere else. The house I’m renting has lost about 25% of its value from peak. Several houses on the block have been taken off the market after months of no bites. Most folks in MoCo–from my empirical eavesdropping endeavors–are still in total denial (”See! Some places aren’t going to collapse like everywhere else!”)
My question is, how many new jobs are being created in the area to justify all the Frederick insta-hoods out on the 70? There are only so many federal jobs, and most of the Homeland Security money has already been spent.
When does the balloon stop hissing and just rupture?
Soon…
Chevy Chase is a good place to rent. Assuming, of course, that you need access to downtown DC for work.
what i don’t understand is why DC isn’t running down like the rest of the country. Jobs were secure 20 years ago, yet back then housing was in line with those secure incomes. What is happening now in DC that’s so special?
_______________________________________________
I’ve always had the “Young Nomads” theory to DC. All around the country people lived in their community or went to school. When the jobs dried up in their town they went looking for work and were attracted to DC. Like our family, it was either stay in Ohio and search for jobs that weren’t there or move. We chose to move (Which throws a lot of old timers off balance. My in laws were conceived, born, educated, married,worked and now retired all within the same 10 mile radius)
If you lived here you know the old joke: “No one is really FROM D.C.”. Hell, you could set up a lawn chair on the Beltway and see plates from all 50 states within an hour.
I can’t speak for everyone else who lives here, but given the choice between staying here or moving to another good job - I think we are moving. I can’t be ‘that guy’ who buys a medium sized house and pays out of the nose for everything. I’d rather have my wife make less money and have more buying power towards a solid SFH.
The affluent attitude and impolite people are also wearing me down. JFK said something like “DC is a city with Northern Charm and Southern Efficiency”. Boy was he right!
Back when I was a college-kid Slim, I worked on the campus paper with Julie Rovner. Yup, she’s the same Julie who is now on NPR. And, BTW, she was one of the nicest people on the campus paper, which had quite the viper-pit reputation.
Any-hoo, Julie was from the DC area, and she had a tee shirt that said, “No, I’m not a tourist. I live here.”
but given the choice between staying here or moving to another good job - I think we are moving.
I tried that exact tack in 2007, but that “good job” didn’t turn out to be very good. I’ve left the DC area three times and it turned out badly all three times. Best not to tempt fate again…
Yeah, I can see that - but we look at the move to DC as a resume booster for my wife. She is running great projects and making solid contacts - trips to Capitol Hill to discuss legislation, presentations at department functions…..all of this is better than going online everyday searching for a job in your hometown. We either have no money living in Ohio on a single income or we have no money living in DC with a dual income.
You might be able to spot all those liscence plates (plus quite a few diplomatic ones) though Hawaii is hard to find off the islands. But I do NOT recommend setting up a lawn chair on the Beltway. Nope. Not a great idea. Though the traffic guys might have some fun with it. In the right spot and at the right time, you might get the average speed between 95 and 270 down to two miles an hour.
I’ve seen plates from Hawaii and Guam. Neither are common though.
I’m just taking a stab in the dark here but I recently read something about how the number of Washington lobbyists have exploded in the last several years. I imagine they’d come armed w/cash to buy. Probably not even their own.
I think most of the lobbyists with real money are already here - not moving here from elsewhere. The junior ones are just PR people with law degrees and some industry experience (or not). They make reasonable money, but not enough to properly be buying million dollar houses when they start. And lobbying is a business. They don’t spend their money giving houses to junior employees. They have other uses for it.
DC is more stable ’cause of the high paying government jobs. Article in yesterday’s Wash Times about excessive government pay. Librarian and interior decorator making $150K. Cuts that are now happening on the local and state level are on their way to DC. Might be a few years. Actually I think Jan 2013 when there is a Republican House AND Senate. The chainsaw will come out on federal employment. Price drops to follow.
Yes.
I understand the run-up in housing; what i don’t understand is why DC isn’t running down like the rest of the country. Jobs were secure 20 years ago, yet back then housing was in line with those secure incomes. What is happening now in DC that’s so special? Credit isn’t any easier in DC (for individuals) than it is in, say, Houston. What makes housing prices go down? Is lack of demand enough, or do there have to be actual foreclosures?
Here’s how I see it. The housing bubble began turning down in late 2005/early 2006. We had reached maximum capacity for borrowers — even for those with NINJA loans. There was nowhere left to go but down.
As the low end began falling, the PTB convinced themselves that, “it would be contained,” and that only “sub-prime” loans and neighborhoods would be affected. Sometime around 2007, the losses started rolling into the better neighborhoods, and some people started panicking — leading them to put their houses on the market at the same time the mortgage/bond market began to falter. By the time the bailouts were being announced (beginning in 2008, but not put into place until later in the year, using Lehman’s failure as an excuse to do so), the least desirable properties, with the most vulnerable borrowers had already seen 40-50% drops — essentially reaching target levels of 2000/2001 pricing, and becoming affordable to the very people who lived there. The bottom for the lower end was pretty much there.
Then came the moratoriums and the mortgage purchases, and the Treasury purchase, and the takeovers of the GSEs, and the push to increase market share for the GSEs and FHA, and the refinances, and on and on. Basically, as the price declines were in their infancy in the more desirable neighborhoods, the Fed/govt put in all the stops, keeping this part of the market in a perpetual state of levitation above the lower-end. In order to close the gap (necessary, if we are to have “move-up” buyers), the enacted the tax credits (state and federal), to boost the lower end. Also, by keeping rates so low, they enticed cash-rich investors into the housing market, as all-cash purchases could earn a better return as rentals than they would get in savings or fixed-income. They spread the lies about inflation coming, in order to make those with cash deploy what they had — reviving the bubble in housing, stocks, commodities, bonds, emerging markets, etc.
IMHO, it’s only a matter of time; and as much as I hate the Republicans who do the bidding of the parasitic capitalists, I’m at least a bit encouraged that they might put a stop to the destructive actions taken by the Fed and the govt. Hopefully, someone will explain to them that the destruction of our currency will end up doing far more damage than a deflationary episode will. We shall see…
“How housing could rebound — in 2025″
Isn’t it a bit premature to call a bottom when prices haven’t even stopped dropping yet? I note that Japan has seen two straight decades of real estate price declines with no respite. Starting in 2006, two decades of declines would take the U.S. out to 2026.
Hey! We finally get a guy who isn’t calling for a 2010…2011…2012 bottom and you want to scare him off?
I’m really starting to love the Beat the Press Blog.
Two of the top 4 posts right now are:
The Washington Post Still Has Not Heard About the Housing Bubble
Wednesday, 01 June 2011 04:54
and
The NYT Still Has Not Heard About the Housing Bubble
Tuesday, 31 May 2011 04:31
Further down on the same page is a story about NPR misinforming listeners. Again.
Yeah, he also really enjoys pointing out when US news agencies present a European stat that in the US is presented as a yearly number, but in Europe is presented as a quarterly number, and doesn’t bother to warn the audience that the European number isn’t directly comparable to what they normally hear. I think that one was last week.
Like I said. I’m really enjoying this guy.
The average journalist probably wouldn’t even understand why the numbers are not directly comparable.
Not news here, but even in the local rag it`s the first time I have seen “recent market gains artificial.” That combined with not getting loans without the trifecta, good credit, two-year work history and down payment. Made it seem worth posting.
South Florida home prices worst since crash
By Kimberly Miller Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 4:27 p.m. Tuesday, May 31, 2011
South Florida home prices in March hit their lowest level since the real estate crash, a crushing drop that reflected the nationwide trend and one that had economists declaring recent market gains artificial.
“The rebound in prices seen in 2009 and 2010 was largely due to the first-time home buyers tax credit,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Indeces. “Excluding the results of that policy, there has been no recovery or even stabilization in home prices during or after the recent recession.”
“I have had at least three instances this year where we were two to three weeks into an executed contract and all of a sudden I am told they can’t get the loan,” said Realtor Shannon Brink with Re/Max Prestige Realty in West Palm Beach. “The combination of good credit, a solid two-year work history and down payment seem to be a big challenge for the average buyer right now.”
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/real-estate/south-florida-home-prices-worst-since-crash-1509827.html - -
In other words, they can’t afford the prices set by delusional sellers.
they can’t afford the prices set by delusional sellers ??
These people may be able to;
The $100,000 pension club is growing fast.
Almost 9,000 retirees in the California Public Employees’ Retirement System receive at least $100,000 in annual benefits, more than quadruple the number getting that much during 2005, according to a Bee review of CalPERS data.
But - it is for the children!
9000 out of how many Calpers retirees? Can we have that as a percentage of the total please?
I agree. While it’s easy to become indignant over this, its small potatoes compared to what the Vampire Squid has done to us.
its small potatoes compared to what the Vampire Squid
9000 in CA. I bet it’s similar percentange in other states. It soon adds up, doesn’t it? Throw in the gvmt corrpution, nepotisim and few wars. Voila!
It’s a tough choice, who’s more evil? Governemnt or WallStreet?
Calpers Retirees//beneficiaries/survivors receiving a monthly allowance: 513,623.
Active and inactive members: 1,116,044
Not all states are as generous as CA, IL or NY.
You still haven’t given the percentage. 9000 is an absolute number.
Based on Steve J, about 1.7%. Significant enough for a Rush rant but not much else.
Of course, all the FB’s are wish pricing, holding out for a 1.7%-er. And vowing they won’t give it away. Meanwhile, the other 98% pay rent that’s too damn high.
9000/513,623 = 1.75%
How much is the average pension? What is the median?
“It’s a tough choice, who’s more evil? Governemnt or WallStreet?”
No contest - Wall Street by far. Corruption and nepotism are rife in corporate America. At least there are checks and balances in government. And government is more transparent than Wall Street.
How much is the average pension? What is the median?
From Calpers Facts at a Glance,
RETIREE INFORMATION (AS OF JUNE 30, 2010)
Average monthly service retirement allowance all retirees: $2,220
Average years of service all retirees: 20.2
And at least those govt workers do something useful to benefit society (public safety, education, building and maintaining infrastructure, etc.), unlike the pigs on Wall Street.
This only reflects that there are many on the payroll making over $150K. No surprise in the land of “money is no object”.
“…$100,000 in annual benefits”
A seemingly impressive number until you realize it includes medical insurance, thus making the actual cash number much smaller.
It is the unconstrained costs like medical insurance which are breaking the system. I would be fine with a cash amount for medical insurance, but not unlimited medical insurance costs. Also there is no margin calculated for investment yields under 8% which in todays markets are not realistic.
This being the case pensions need to be adjusted to the reality of the world and market or one day they may not be there at all for anyone.
I know a guy who recently retired and is drawing $18XK a year plus lifetime medical.
All through Calpers.
I don’t think that number includes medical benefits as not all retirees receive medical.
In this particular instance, I maybe wrong, but usually, not always, but usually, when a phrase like “total compensation” or “annual benefits” is written, it is meant to include money AND medical and perhaps some other perks.
In other words, it is mean to deliberately goad the reader.
When I was a young soldier a similar number was originally published to try to convince us how good we had it and therefore how futile it would be to get out of the military and try to make it on our own.
so if CA cuts this government pension will CA RE fall faster ?
Like AZ ?
my mom worked for 25 years as a high school teacher w a calpers pension. She gets about $2300 per month plus medical. Guess she should have administrated rather than spending all those years in the trenches.
Your mom has my mom beat by three years. My mom taught for 22 years. Late in her teaching career, she became head of the foreign language department. However, she had no desire to go into administration.
Why not? Because, get this, she preferred being in the classroom. It was more of a “doing” job than a position in the school’s administration.
She knew that the administrators spent much of their time in meetings. Which my mother loathes. Say the word “meeting” to her, and watch the sparks fly.
Most of the abuses in government pensions are at the bloated administrative level for sure!
Our sons middle school had 1100 students in 1999 and ONE principal and ONE VP. Today the same school has 1100 students and one Principal and THREE VP’s along with several head of counselling and such positions where back then they had a roaming Councillor for several schools. A LOT of position bloat IMO, and I think this goes far and wide in government at the local state and federal levels.
I’ll bet we could fire 2/3 of the administrative level employees in government and never notice they were gone except for the fact it would go a long way towards stabilizing our municipal finances.
From the article.
“Rent is no longer a four-letter word,” said Mike Larson, an economist with Weiss Research in Jupiter. “We had this accepted belief that house prices would never go down and that has been shattered.”
“The rebound in prices seen in 2009 and 2010 was largely due to the first-time home buyers tax credit,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Indeces.
Which all it accomplished was pulling in future demand. Well, we are now in that future…
All it would accomplish was as evident then as it is now. Now it is obvious. When the mainstream media starts to report this, it is already accepted as fact, or about to be, by most people. So, are we finally getting out of the Denial Stage? Rage and Envy follow. HBBers have been there for quite a while. Should be interesting when the media catches up and adds fuel to the fire.
Yep, it’s crunch time for the elite and their Faux News and Kochtopus. Can they keep deflecting blame away from themselves and onto union janitors and subprime loans? Can they keep terrifying people about the deficit and not have a critical mass of those people say, ‘You’re right! We need to do something about these deficits. You need to start paying more of your vast wealth to help us fix our budget hole.’
Should be interesting. I wonder how low they’ll go?
As low as your side. It’s a tough choice between a turd sandwich and a crap sandwich.
As low as your side. Keep on dreaming there’s a difference between the t*u*rd sandwich and the cr@p sandwich.
Yeah butters, Marie Antoinette didn’t get it either.
“Keep on dreaming there’s a difference between the t*u*rd sandwich and the cr@p sandwich.”
So there’s no difference between Nancy Pelosi and Ron Paul?
I saved 2banana’s life the other day……..
Took out my M-1, and shot a rabid, $hit-eating dog running loose……
This article is about the debt limit, but here’s a blurb where the Repbulicans are still struggling to “educate” the public about their plan for Medicare:
—–
cnn DOT com/2011/POLITICS/06/01/debt.ceiling/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
“I simply explained what our plan is, how it works,” Ryan said. “It’s been mis-described by the president and many others, and so we simply described to him precisely what it is we’ve been proposing, so that he hears from us how our proposal works, so that in the future he won’t mischaracterize it.”
Republicans complain that Democrats erroneously say the Ryan plan would mean senior citizens would be forced into the private health insurance market and receive a government payment to cover some of the costs.
Republicans say the plan sets up a Medicare exchange offering specific options for private coverage, with the government helping to pay the bill.
——–
Ok, so what is the difference between the “private market,” and a “Medicare exchange with private market options?”
Is there a public option hidden among those private market options to make it different?
Q1- None
Q2- Hell no, that would be socialism.
How many of the toxic assets based on mortgages were unloaded by the Wall Street players in the meantime? 90% of those guys may be crooks, but 90% of them aren’t dumb, that’s for sure.
Exactly. The delay in the housing/credit correction was created so that the Wall Street pigs could offload their toxic assets onto the govt’s shoulders. All those FHA loans and re-financed GSE loans are going to be OUR losses to bear when we see the 30-50% default rates on those processed during this delay.
The National Association of Realtors said the average credit score to obtain a conventional mortgage is about 760, compared with 720 in 2007.
760 FICO? Two years of work in a steady job? Down payment? under those conditions, almost nobody will be able to buy a house. It’s as muggy says: we’re all going to pay skyrocketing rent while surrounded by empty foreclosed houses.
Imho if you are a stable responsible citizen having a credit score of 800 is no big deal, Accomplishing to accumulate a down payment is nothing to rave about. To me it is silly to tout these requirements.
America needs to grow up and it’s about time we faced the music.
I agree. Aren’t these more or less the same requirements that were always in place prior to the bubble?
Yes. Therefore, we ought to be seeing the same prices that were in place before the bubble.
“America needs to grow up and it’s about time we faced the music.”
Bernanke: We have the reserve currency, so we grind the music, and everyone else does the dancing.
If you had $300K in the bank, and were asked to loan it to a prospective home buyer (at, say, 5% interest)… what would YOUR loan qualification standards be? Should we expect institutional requirements to be more lax?
Sorry guys, what I siad didn’t come out right. I agree that Americans need to grow up and be responsible. I wouldn’t loan money to the subprimes either.
What I’m saying, though, is that — responsbility aside — the actual number of responsible people with all those credit-worthy things is very low. If banks hold out for the 760 20% crowed, they won’t get any takers. Especially not in the DC area, where you would need perfect credit for 10 years and $55K in the bank. Few households like that exist. Those banks will either have to drop the prices to get within down-payment range, or accept sitting on a house for years. (while the responsible compete with Section 8 and military for rents)
>Those banks will either have to drop the prices…
ding ding ding: we have a winner!
Exactly, redrum!
(I know you already know that, oxide.)
Did you ask that 5 years ago?
having assets got my wife a 300k loan w/ a (non documented; no doc loan) and 20% down and a 700 credit score. she was a p/t checker at the time.
The FHA contintues this raquet today, although it is not as bad, the true NODOC is gone as I understand. But the bar is set low to keep prices up.
Job, 680 credit score, 3.5% down and you can get $$. So someone with $3500 saved can buy from Fannie.
At least the loan, it is a metric tied to your income. Which my wife’s loan was not. After we cashed out all but one home; she has not had $$ to make a payment in 15 months.
“It’s as muggy says: we’re all going to pay skyrocketing rent while surrounded by empty foreclosed houses.”
Thanks for letting me be a prophet for a day!
I’d love to be wrong, but I can easily see 2-3 years of this. Maybe more…
Time to roll out that famous Ron Shuffield quote from the bubble peak years once again.
‘ “South Florida is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past.” He predicts that a limited supply of land coupled with demand from baby boomers and foreigners will prolong the boom indefinitely.’
I wonder if anyone in Vancouver, BC has made a similar quote yet.
South Florida is working off of an old economic model that the passengers of the Titanic have experienced in the past. I predict that a unlimited supply of non-performing loans coupled with financial problems of baby boomers and undocumented foreigners will prolong the bust indefinitely.
comment from
South Florida home prices worst since crash
This is NOT a ‘crisis.’
Falling prices is a GOOD thing.
You want your consumables to be cheaper.
Gas/power goes up in price - we complain.
Health/education goes up in price - we complain.
Just about any consumer item increases in price - we complain.
However, if housing goes DOWN in price - we are in ‘crisis?’
Housing…Too much supply vs. too little demand…Not enough SAVINGS and high holding costs.
Housing prices should AND will go down.
And this is a GREAT thing.
Get in the Game
8:44 AM, 6/1/2011
Your perspective changes dramatically when you switch from being a buyer to being an owner. For most of these FB’s, it’s their one chance to be a “have.”
Love that, Jeff!
Yes, lower housing prices are the best thing that can happen to our economy, especially barring any new, good-paying jobs.
jeff et al.
Is this not what most of us have been hoping for for the last 5 years?
Indeed it is, Robin!
UPDATE:
This reporter has learned that the popular Disc Jockey Cousin Jethro was denied unemployment benefits yesterday. Officials said “given that Cousin Jethro was only employed by WHBB for three days, he does not meet the standards set to receive benefits”.
Cousin Jethro was seen yesterday afternoon at the exit ramp of I95 and North Lake Blvd. with a “WILL SPIN FOR FOOD” sign.
This is an outrage! We’ve been with Cousin Jethro spinnin’ da hitz for days now.
errr…. “without”
In today’s Denver Post:
Metro Denver home prices rewind to 2001 levels
“The Denver home-price index still hasn’t set a new low, but at 120.55 in March, it is not far from the recession low of 120.21 set in February 2009.
The indexes — set at 100 in January 2000 — show Denver home prices have returned to 2001 levels.”
Crash and burn baby, crash and f’ing burn
From the AP:
Americans losing confidence in recovery, survey shows
“Americans are losing faith that the economy will keep improving, according to a monthly survey
‘Consumers are considerably more apprehensive about future business and labor-market conditions as well as their income prospects,’ said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center. She said fears of inflation that had eased in April picked up again in May.”
Would this be the “jobless recovery” post-2001, or the “recoveryless recovery” 2007-present?
How’s that Hope and Change working out for you now now kidz?
Would this be the “jobless recovery” post-2001, or the “recoveryless recovery” 2007-present?
It’s one big happy family. A hollowed out economy that first ran on EZ Credit and is now running on fumes. J6P is starting to realize this as there is no new “make a quick buck” bubble on the horizon and is beginning to panic.
I recall someone mentioned here a few years ago that he noticed at parties he was the only person with a conventional job, and that everyone else seemed to be self employed, usually something related to building, selling or financing houses (I seem to recall that it was mentioned that one person made a very comfortable living hauling scrap away from home construction sites). Those people are all broke now, draining their savings running on fumes.
When I was unemployed, the draining of the savings account hit hard emotionally. Not having a job (a place to go every day) was tough, but you can fill your time with job search stuff and some volunteering and put some structure back in your day and your week (never turning on the TV before 6 PM helped). And collecting unemployment is humiliating even when it was done by phone or over the internet, but you did it because those checks covered almost all of rent plus COBRA so only utilities, transportation, food and a few bits and pieces had to come out of savings.
But when the UE stopped and the savings started to evaporate at a much faster pace? Oh boy, turn on the terror. Like getting caught in a slow moving avalanche.
Speaking of consumer confidence, I bought a lamp for my bedroom last week - nice strong harp, finial fits well and spins smoothly, clean linen shade, simple design, three way socket. I think it is a knock off of something Restoration Hardware had a number of years ago. $10 off Craigs List.
I recall someone mentioned here a few years ago that he noticed at parties he was the only person with a conventional job, and that everyone else seemed to be self employed, usually something related to building, selling or financing houses (I seem to recall that it was mentioned that one person made a very comfortable living hauling scrap away from home construction sites). Those people are all broke now, draining their savings running on fumes.
Here in Tucson, I used to go to a monthly gathering called Green Drinks. It was for people in the environmental field, and, at one time, it was quite heavy on folks in the building, selling, and financing of houses racket.
Then, starting in 2008, the crowds started to thin out. To the point where it was just a table-ful or two of people. That’s when I stopped going.
Methinks that the “green” meme wasn’t enough to save those REIC-sters.
How’s that Hope and Change working out for you now
now kidzBlackwaterXe?Cheney-Shrub Legacy Effect #3: “We left y’all with the worst POS economy in 80 years…see ya!”
Bomb-Bomb-Bomb, Bomb-Bomb Iraq
Bomb-Bomb-Bomb, Bomb-Bomb Afghan
Cheney-Shrub threw a lotta Bombs in 8 years, looks like they saved the biggest one for the US Economy post scrambling the heck outta of Dodge City Jan 19th 2009!
So it’s STILL Bush’s fault. LOL!
That Cheney-Shrub Legacy Epic Economic Failure is one tough nut, ain’t it?
SOS
Momentum, how does it work?
Bush is like the ex-wife who ran up the credit card. I have yet to hear an ex-husband stop blaming an ex-wife just because a couple years went by (or ever). And that credit card doesn’t pay off itself you know.
In other words, yes, it is STILL Bush’s fault.
You’ve got to look at it this way……
It’s going to be easier for you to pay the credit card bill, than it will be for the ex- to quit blowing money.
But when Obama runs up more debt in three years than Bush in 8 who is the ex-wife? I think that the problem was created over thirty years so blaming any one president is foolish. However, I think the first rule when you are in a hole is to stop digging and he has only increased the digging. When he ran he said he had a plan to turn the country around and the stimulus was designed by him and his advisers to stop the rise in unemployment at the 8% level.
He defined his own parameters of success. Sorry, he is a failed president in his own right. He might just have pulled it off if had not thrown Mubarak under the bus. However, the events that have transpired i.e. high oil prices since then mean that he is going into next year’s election with very bad numbers. By next year, Palin will be able to run a very competitive race against him and the Senate will probably join the House and go Republican. Reagan had bad numbers his first two years but he had quarters with 7% growth in the next few years. Had he tried to blame Carter when he ran four years later what do you think the result would have been? However, the economy he inherited was very similar to one that Obama inherited.
“…the Senate will join the House and go Republican”
Which means we’re fooked.
Then Palin will become President……..God have mercy. We’re going to need it.
Just lost my previous post into cyber space. However, to reconstruct the Nation magazine and others were happy just after Reagan’s election due to (1) no one could beat stagflation (2) Japanese business model of government and business was superior to free market (3) Confronting the Soviet Union was going to fail (4) Reagan’s energy policy was going to fail since we were out of fossil fuels
They thought he would fail and then a true leftist could be elected instead of Carter. However, because Reagan was practical and not just driven by ideology he did succeed and if Obama would be practical he could turn it around. How is this for a compromise. Repeal Obama care except for the $500 billion in medicare costs. In return the republicans have to give up tax cuts for the rich. Combine that with a phased in one year increase in the retirement age with a substantial raise in the amount of earnings subject to social security taxes and our budget and entitlement problems are largely solved. I have a solution to the uninsured but don’t have the time to post.
However, I think the first rule when you are in a hole is to stop digging and he has only increased the digging.
There is a BIG difference between digging a hole to give people tax breaks that didn’t need them, and digging a hole to feed people or give them medical care.
I’ll agree on raising the SS age/income, but not on repealing Obamacare. We have a fundamental disagreement. I think health care is a right; you think it’s a privilege for producers. But the Republicans will have no part of your compromise, because to them, giving up the tax cuts is the same as raising taxes. And they are hellbent on not raising taxes because they think tax cuts create “jobs.” Right. We all know how that turned out.
I had written my solution to the uninsured but lost it due to a bad wifi connection. I will post, hopefully, tomorrow.
P.S. I agree that most republicans will not buy it. And most democrats like you will not repeal Obama care. That is the problem in this country, we can’t get past ideology. We cannot sustain these levels of deficits so cuts will be made only the timing is in question. I do not believe there is a “right” to health care, homes or anything material from the government unless we amend the U.S. Constitution through the process described in the constitution. However, I do believe that we should try to provide a basic safety net for people including some health care and I will describe it tomorrow.
To be fair, both parties had a hand at wrecking the economy.
anyone who thinks that current economic/monetary policy would be any different under any other republican or democrat is a fool.
Yup, Tweedle-dee vs Tweedle-dum. All we can do now is wait for the house of cards to collapse and start over. When that happens there are going to be a lot of unhappy cops and firefighters with worthless pensions.
Actually, if we’re all excited that housing prices are lower, the hope and change is working out quite nicely, thank you
anyone who thinks that current economic/monetary policy would be any different under any other republican or democrat is a fool.
there are very very few exceptions (ron paul).
Perhaps it’s time for a poll. When do you think the double dip recession in the U.S. will be officially anounced?
Before it’s announced we’re really in a depression?
Metro Denver home prices rewind to 2001 levels
Getting Denver to rewind to 2001 is the easy part…Denver didn’t gain that much after 2001. For Denver the bubble was 1997-2001. Take us back a few more years and then I’ll get excited.
LA times: Leaving North Las Vegas no option for many ‘underwater’ homeowners
LA Times | 5/31/2011 | By Ashley Powers and Alejandro Lazo
Reporting from North Las Vegas, Nev.— Charles Mills can barely afford to stay here. But he also can’t afford to move.
That’s why the 44-year-old heavy-equipment operator was preparing to leave his wife and young daughter here and go where he could find work — the Oklahoma oil fields. Mills has a mortgage to pay, even if its size pains him.
He purchased his house in 2006 for $308,500. Current value: $105,797.
“We talked about it: What can we do with the house?” Mills said. “Nobody’s going to buy it. Nobody’s going to rent it. If we walk away, my credit’s shot. We’re stuck.”
In some parts of North Las Vegas, more than 80% of homeowners have plunged “underwater,” meaning they owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth — a stunning concentration of aborted plans and upended lives.
Mobility in search of new opportunity has long been a cornerstone of the American economy, much the way homeownership has long offered a path to firmer financial footing. But the housing bust has left tens of thousands of homeowners across Nevada essentially trapped.
They’re considered the new normal here. They turn down higher-paying jobs elsewhere because they can’t move. They tidy the yards of houses left vacant by foreclosure. They realize it’s unlikely their children will receive tidy inheritances from the sale of their suburban homes.
When they look about their neighborhood, they question things they never questioned before. Are dead plants a sign that someone forgot to water? Or did the water get turned off? Does a garage sale mean more neighbors are about to bail?
“We don’t even walk around our own neighborhood anymore,” Mills said. “Why? To say hi to strangers?”
Elsewhere on Midnight Breeze Street are Steve and Gay Shoaff, who once talked of selling their house and retiring somewhere pretty. Gay, 57, even toured a place in Wyoming.
But the Shoaffs have been living mostly off savings since the construction industry sputtered. Steve, 60, worked as a drywall taper and foreman.
“I’d say, ‘Gay, we’re going to become millionaires on this house,’ ” Steve recalled one day as he and his wife unwound in the backyard they’d spent thousands of dollars sprucing up. Gay mustered a smile.
Their $187,980 home is now assessed at $99,220.
Can’t move because it would destroy their credit rating. The credit rating is a sham then.
It probably won’t be long until the credit rating rackets figure out they can Zestimate your house and see you’re underwater, then slash your precious credit rating while you are still carrying the rock in your backpack.
That would be the super secret special credit rating. If they slash the one you can see before you stop paying, how can the credit rating be used to keep you paying against your financial interest?
warning - As far as I know there is no such thing as a super secret special credit rating. And most places don’t care that much about you being underwater, especially as people decide to pay the credit cards rather than the mortgage. For a refinance, they are going to get their own valuation of the house anyway.
Nobody’s going to rent it. If we walk away, my credit’s shot.
Yup, the bankster’s have us over a barrel. Bad credit no longer just means no credit cards, it also means high insurance rates and failing background checks for jobs. They will siphon away every dollar until there’s nothing left.
Good God just walk away for pete sakes.
These stories should make my HBB Brothers and Sisters grateful. I know I am.
Remember? 2003? 04? 05? These are the same people we all looked at and said, “how in the #@$% are they doing it?”, or variations on that thought.
Remember? 2003? 04? 05? These are the same people we all looked at and said, “how in the #@$% are they doing it?”, or variations on that thought.
My EXACT thoughts and at this time period.
And when I started looking and found HBB.
My wife and I have decent jobs. Some money saved. A nice and small house with a conventional mortgage (20% down). Paid the mortgage off every month and built some equity.
Driving around looking at houses in 2003-2005 to get something a little bigger. That was how it was supposed to work. The “old time” rules.
What I found was insane prices for crap houses. Huge new McMansion going up with 5 bedrooms, 5 baths, sitting rooms, media rooms, etc.
I kept asking - where are the people who can afford all this? My logic was - they must have BETTER jobs than me and even MORE money saved up. Where do they WORK? Cause I want to work there.
Nope - I later found out - all debt. All smoke. All mirrors.
And now it is all imploding. And I am supposed to feel sorry for the FB and hope the government gives them lots of bailout money.
NOT!
I felt depressed at first as well thinking everyone else was doing so much better financially than I was.
“I kept asking - where are the people who can afford all this? My logic was - they must have BETTER jobs than me and even MORE money saved up. Where do they WORK? Cause I want to work there.”
++, I was thinking the same thing, and looking in the mirror, asking, “what am I doing wrong?” ….
T
Yup, just up the hill from me they built 5,000sf tract house McMansions– though some with glimmering views (ocean is 5 miles away)– the going price 1.8 million circa 2007, and an old timer real estate guy indulged my questions at an open house as to how anyone could afford these houses. In fact, he says to me, some families are buying TWO. Even with a million dollar down payment they’d have a 800K mortgage, plus the 21K/year taxes, plus paying for landscaping, window coverings and filling the rooms with oversized furniture just to stay in scale with the hotel lobby rooms. I figured, on the low side, that it would cost 25K a month to live in one of these behemoths. Drugs, trust funds? Wonder what’s happening now…time to do a drive-by.
Same here banana, and salad, and Trapper. The ads were stuff full of pretty young things, all 28 and clubbin’ their way through life in a condo (where they paint the walls a la HGTV). I’m sure they had better jobs, but not for the income to support those prices! And where did they get those down payments? I felt like such a slacker…
Jeez banana… excellent comments…. you really are for real. Thank you .
“I kept asking - where are the people who can afford all this? ”
Yes, and so young! in their 20s! was a loser I was.
Heartfelt comments all. For me it seems better to face a challenging future than to face a repeat of that vile boom. Such a repeat would truly be h*ll - too bad so many still think it’s their only path to salvation.
Yup. The above summarizes my exact same thoughts. I often walk through the McMansion development just down the street from my house and see these 20-something couples (many who apparently don’t even have kids, why in the he#% do you need a 5K square foot house then?) living in homes which at the peak of the market were being refinanced at $1.1M.
Many have since sold via foreclosure or short-sale for just around $800K, IMHO they are worth $500K tops in my area (near Microsoft HQ) and could be had for $250-300K easily in other parts of the country. In some cases, there are clues that they really stretched their finances to the limit (ie still driving a mid-1990s Chrysler minivan or Ford Taurus) just to be in the house.
I’m smack dab in the middle of “high-tech” land where college students are starting out at very near 6-figure salaries right out of the gate (it’s always aggravating when the newbies are making more than somebody with 20 years of experience, with the same degree), so this along with the three “L”s keeps prices higher in my area.
I thank God that I bought my little crappy 1970s rambler for under $200K in 1998 before the bubble started (which was a real stretch for me, as I could have easily got the same house in the town that I grew up in for under $100K).
For me it seems better to face a challenging future than to face a repeat of that vile boom. Such a repeat would truly be h*ll
Vile it was…… vile indeed. And the FB’ers were vile too. Now they’re blubbering pathetic whiners.
+ a million, all…
We felt the same way. We had a decent down payment, decent income, but there was no way we could comfortably buy a very “regular” house (somewhat larger than the house that we sold, but still in a very working-class neighborhood) back in 2004. I asked everyone we came into contact with:
“How are they doing it????? Where is the money coming from?”
Everyone (agents and neighbors) told us that, ” the rich people had found out about our area, and EVERYONE wanted to live here.” The problem was that we kept waiting for the rich people to move in, but all we saw were maids, gardeners, and store clerks buying $500K homes. Nothing made sense, and we were very frustrated by it all.
Thank God for this blog, because I thought I was losing my mind at the time. It was surreal. So glad to have found like-minded people who were as confused as we were.
“Good God just walk away for pete sakes.”
Agree. While many homeowners who purchased during the boom were ignorant a-holes who tried to make renters feel small, and there was nothing more I wanted to see than those jerks nailed to a home while the rest of us took advantage of falling prices, I just can’t understand why someone would keep a millstone around their neck. Heck, I’d walk away in a heartbeat if it was me.
But then again, you do have people who DON’T want to walk away, they want to remain, but at a lower payment.
And these are the ones who are protesting outside the offices of the bank, whining that they didn’t get “their” refinance. In other words, they wanted to pay that 4% I/O forever.
Remember? 2003? 04? 05? These are the same people we all looked at and said, “how in the #@$% are they doing it?”, or variations on that thought.
My EXACT thoughts and at this time period.
And when I started looking and found HBB.
My wife and I have decent jobs. Some money saved. A nice and small house with a conventional mortgage (20% down). Paid the mortgage off every month and built some equity.
Driving around looking at houses in 2003-2005 to get something a little bigger. That was how it was supposed to work. The “old time” rules.
What I found was insane prices for crap houses. Huge new McMansion going up with 5 bedrooms, 5 baths, sitting rooms, media rooms, etc.
I kept asking - where are the people who can afford all this? My logic was - they must have BETTER jobs than me and even MORE money saved up. Where do they WORK? Cause I want to work there.
Nope - I later found out - all debt. All smoke. All mirrors.
And now it is all imploding. And I am supposed to feel sorry for the FB and hope the government gives them lots of bailout money.
NOT!
wow 44 is kind of old for the oilfield.
Also he’ll have a lot of competition in that construction is down everywhere which means lots of other construction workers will also be descending on the oilfields.
His house will bleed him of money until he can’t bleed anymore and that is the time he’ll have to give up the house.
There are tens of thousands of guys like this guy. These tens of thousands of guys mean there are tens of thousands of houses waiting to take their place in line as foreclosures sometime in the future.
There is a shadow inventory that we can glimple and then there is a shadow of the shadow that is yet to emerge.
“There are tens of thousands of guys like this guy.”
I’m thinking a bigger number.
It’s that ingrained “responsibility” thing.
Too bad they haven’t been paying attention, or get all their info from Fox News. The banksters had no qualms whatsoever about dumping their junk onto Uncle Sugar.
J6P taxpayer is paying for bubble housing, whether he actually owns one or not. If you have a mortgage, you are basically paying for two houses. The haircuts in take home pay continue as we speak.
Instead of dealing with the realities of J6P’s Amerika of the past 30 years, they continue to believe that faith and working harder will make things right in the end.
These people are defacto slaves, whether they recognize it or not. Wake up.
Yep, it reminds me of a potential beau who believed quite firmly that “God will provide.” Of course, he was desperately trying to find a woman to marry, so that SHE would provide. That relationship didn’t go far.
Then there are tens and thousands of F-350 that will be repossessed and will be on the dealer’s lots starting this fall.
Btw I saw very few boaters on the Hudson this past weekend. I however saw a lot of cops on the river looking to ticket boaters.
The beat goes on
Crazy to bleed yourself dry and then stop paying. If the writing is on the wall, walk while you still have something to walk with. Learn something and make a better decision next time.
This assumes you’re in a no recourse situation. If your loan is recourse, suck it up cause you’re screwed.
Then there are tens and thousands of F-350 that will be repossessed and will be on the dealer’s lots starting this fall.
Btw I saw very few boaters on the Hudson this past weekend. I however saw a lot of cops on the river looking to ticket boaters.
The beat goes on
This past weekend, I took a day trip outside of Tucson. It was a “know your farmer” tour organized by the local food co-op.
While we were in the van en route to the farm, we logged about 50 miles on Interstate 10. I saw very little of what one would consider to be holiday traveler traffic. Lots of long-distance truckers, and that’s typical for I-10.
As we were leaving Tucson proper, we passed by quite a few RV sales, service, and storage centers. All were stuffed to the gills with RVs. I can’t help thinking that more than a few of those RVs had been repossessed.
I however saw a lot of cops on the river looking to ticket boaters.
A coworker from India rented an SUV (still getting snowed on this year, so I considered that wise) and took her family to Yellowstone over this last weekend. Got 2 speeding tickets in the one day. Got another warning but avoided any more tickets the rest of the weekend by strictly following the letter of the law for the rest of the trip.
Memorial Day weekend is a notorious money-maker.
wow 44 is kind of old for the oilfield.
Indeed. Oil field jobs are definitely a young person’s game.
And the ideal is to move up from the dirty jobs into something more like a desk job. Because after you hit your thirties, your body just can’t take the punishment anymore.
Oh wait, it’s a heavy equip operator. That might be easier than actual roughnecking.
But the Shoaffs have been living mostly off savings since the construction industry sputtered. Steve, 60, worked as a drywall taper and foreman.
Oh, for Pete’s sake! Your Truly has taped drywall. It isn’t that tough — once you get the hang of it. Which should tell the rest of you that a job like this doesn’t pay that much.
I smell the fumes of “living beyond their means” emanating from this story.
A lot of the construction trade is not that difficult to learn.
And you can save a bundle fixing your own house!
A lot of the construction trade is not that difficult to learn.
And you can save a bundle fixing your own house!
I sure found that out while I was taking community college courses and volunteering at Habitat and on post-Katrina reconstruction.
But, unlike working a repetitive desk job, construction sites require a high level of attention. Not just to what you’re doing, but also to what’s happening around you. A moment’s inattention can be fatal.
What, you mean you can’t jabber on the cell phone in Spanish with your wife, as she jabbers on HER cell phone with you in Spanish when she’s cleaning bathrooms in an office building?
The ability to perform construction tasks isn’t the measure. Earning profit at it is. You better be fast and the end product better be perfect.
There are few people who can do construction or any other type of labor/skill/trades after 50.
It really is too hard on your body.
I hear you. Now that I’m 50 I don’t even want to do yard work! LOL!
“There are few people who can do construction or any other type of labor/skill/trades after 50.”
I’d throw in front-line police/firefighting work in there too, except that there are so many who LOATHE them on this board.
No, I’m not a cop/fireman. I just respect the hell out of what they do.
+1, Molly
The Wall Street Journal Online
June 1, 2011, 8:40 AM ET
What Is the Housing ‘Double Dip’?
Deal Journal
By Shira Ovide
A reader wrote in with a plea to explain the term “double dip” being thrown around after yesterday’s grim news about housing prices. Let’s explain!
As our Wall Street Journal colleagues reported today, “Home prices have sunk to 2002 levels, effectively wiping out almost a decade’s worth of home equity across the U.S.” Home prices nationally are down by about a third from 2006 levels.
When commentators (and Deal Journal) say we’re now in a housing “double dip,” this refers to a long plunge in home prices starting after 2006, a fragile recovery and then a second drop down in housing prices experienced in recent months. The two “dips” can be seen clearly below in the handy chart of the S&P/Case-Shiller indexes, which measure home prices across the country.
As you can see in the chart, residential real estate prices topped out in 2006. Home prices briefly stopped dropping around two years ago, helped along by a tax break for home buyers. Now, the home-price slide has resumed after the tax credits expired and amid renewed economic softness. Double dip!
In other words, we’ve been lying to you for the past few years about a recovery. Now we’re going to say we knew about this the whole time and we’ll explain in a condecending tone that you should have known too. Try to keep up!
“…we’ve been lying to you for the past few years about a recovery…”
I suppose we technically are still in a recovery, at least as far as production and employment are concerned, though the lagging housing market recovery might suggest otherwise.
OK, by what metric were we ever in a recovery? Seriously asking because I never saw it on the ground. GDP number from the Ministry of Truth back up, yes, but includes massive increase in deficit government spending and hefty increases in the price of stuff. Jobs? Hasn’t the net jobs lost number been relentlessly grinding away at 2 million per year? Housing? We had a faux pause in declines, but not a recovery. Interest rates; never got above ZIRP. Linkedin IPO, lol. Manufacturing indexes went back up a bit, but not to the point that there was a capacity shortage anywhere.
“OK, by what metric were we ever in a recovery? Seriously asking because I never saw it on the ground. GDP number from the Ministry of Truth back up”
I think you just answered your own question. To anyone with eyes and an IQ above 100 its been painfully obvious that there has been no recovery as the layoffs never slowed down, the foreclosures popped up like dandelions and sales of houses and cars tanked.
You have a good point. The recovery mantra should be viewed with an eye to the political interests of the folks who are doing the talking.
America’s hidden unemployment problem
By Chris Isidore
@CNNMoney June 1, 2011: 11:50 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Want to know how the job market is doing? Just look at the disability rolls.
The Great Recession has created a growing underclass of millions of unemployed who are unlikely to ever re-enter the labor force. Instead, they’re relying on government support that they qualify for because of health issues.
There are 8.3 million workers receiving disability payments, an increase of 1.2 million, or 17% from when the recession began, according to the Social Security Administration.
While it might seem like more people are trying to file illegitimate claims, experts say that’s not the case. The percentage of claims being approved is about the same as in a good economy.
The real culprit: Workers with modest health problems are usually willing to take jobs when they can get them. But when they can’t, they turn to the government. That’s why the number of people who apply for — and get approved for — disability payments typically increases during bad economic times.
“There are people who, despite disability, are out there working when times are good,” said Mark Lassiter, spokesman for the Social Security Administration, which runs the disability programs. “We’ve seen this increase in applications during other recessions. This jump is not due to fraud.”
…
“There are people who, despite disability, are out there working when times are good,” said Mark Lassiter, spokesman for the Social Security Administration, which runs the disability programs. “We’ve seen this increase in applications during other recessions. This jump is not due to fraud.”
I think that one of my neighbors fits this description.
He does have mental illness issues, but he’s not so incapacitated that he couldn’t hold down a job. Matter of fact, I think that having a job to go to, with people to interact with, would do him a lot of good. I think he’d also like to become a tax-paying member of society again.
But he’s on some sort of disability and doesn’t work.
“Workers with modest health problems are usually willing to take jobs when they can get them.”
If your health problems are modest enough that you can work, then maybe such people shouldn’t be able to get disability benefits. Just thinking out loud.
Maybe, but in some cases not so. My oldest is handicapped and she really likes to work. There have been a few jobs over the years that she has been able to do and she has done them with enthusiasm. The longest running one was in a sheltered workshop, which costs money to subsidize. When the supporting agency cut the funds, she lost that position. Not her choice by any means. I think in the big picture it was better for her to work productively with a little subsidy than to be idle with a big subsidy. Not my choice either. We have a dysfunctional society at many levels.
Well GDP, employment, and the S&P are all up from their lows. THAT is all that they mean by “recovery” really: That the economy is no longer free falling downward, not that things are “back to normal.” The problem IMHO is that the fall has only been arrested by unsupportable levels of government intervention. And even that has mostly goosed Wall street, and not Main street. We are NOWHERE near the employment levels pre-bust. And we’re looking at close to a decade before that level of employment returns IMHO>
SSI disability doesn’t pay that much.
Yes but you get Section 8 with it, and I think Medicare at some point.
Section 8 is not always horrible, either, outside of urban areas.
All the jobs around here that the disabled used to do, are now being done by 40-50 something college grads.
Need another example? Go check out the crew at your local Wal-Mart. Or any chain restaurant. Compare the employees now, with the staff they had working there 6 years ago.
So now housing matches the markets - they’ve both been running in place for ~ten years now. So, why then do so many still act so wealthy and think boomtimes are around the corner?
Maybe they feel their wages have risen to keep pace?
snark off/
So, why then do so many still act so wealthy and think boomtimes are around the corner?
Because they’ve been trained to expect fundamentals defying bubbles to appear periodically? Because they still remember when they could earn a 6 figure income with next to no skills. peddling houses and mortgages?
Home-price index at lowest point since 2006 bust
By The Associated Press
More from BusinessWeek
WASHINGTON
An index of home prices in the country’s major metro areas has sunk to its lowest level since the housing bubble burst in late 2006.
Prices fell from February to March in 18 of the metro areas tracked by the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city index. And prices in a dozen markets have reached their lowest points since the housing crisis began. Prices in March rose only in the Seattle and Washington, D.C., metro areas.
A record number of foreclosures are forcing home prices down, and they are expected to keep falling through this year.
The 12 cities now at their lowest levels in nearly four years are: Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, Ore., and Tampa.
The Wall Street Journal Online
May 31, 2011, 2:46 PM ET
Like a Virus, Falling Home Prices Spread the Pain
Real Time Economics
By Kathleen Madigan
The troubles in housing feel like the summer cold you just can’t shake.
The latest sniffles came from Tuesday’s S&P/Case-Shiller report. It showed national home prices dropped 5.1% in the year ended in the first quarter. Prices have lost all the gains made in 2009 and 2010 when home buyers received federal tax credits. The index is back down to readings of 2002.
Calling this month’s report a “confirmation of a double-dip in home prices,” David M. Blitzer, chairman of the S&P Index Committee said that “prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight.”
The second down leg of home prices will keep housing from making any meaningful contribution to real gross domestic product growth this year.
The drag on the outlook doesn’t end there, however. Dropping home values will be a big problem for small businesses, local-government finances and consumer confidence, which is already tumbling thanks to high gasoline prices and worries about paychecks.
Entrepreneurs have long tapped home equity to start businesses. According to research done in 2010 by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 20% to 25% of small companies reported using property holdings (either primary residence or other real estate) to finance the business.
If home values are dropping, small businesses have less access to capital to keep their operations running. Given the importance of small businesses in generating job growth, any drag on small businesses is a drag on job creation as well.
…
“Entrepreneurs have long tapped home equity to start businesses.”
Perhaps, but they would not have tapped their equity to start a business had not a lot of other loanowners tapped theirs to artifically boost demand for goods and services these past few decades.
Gee, the way they talk about house equity extraction makes one wonder how this country ever got off the ground in the first place.
You identified the problem. How do you replace the $600 billion dollars in equity extraction that occurred at the peak of the housing bubble? Add in the demand caused by construction itself and soon you have a $1 trillion hole in demand. However, we can’t follow the present policy of deficit spending to fill that gap. We will soon end up like Greece following that policy. We need to accept the only answer austerity. We can make that easier by strict enforcement of immigration laws. Otherwise, we are getting closer to major riots in our cities. The only good thing I can say about Obama is that perhaps because he is black, he is less of a target for inner city riots. Perhaps the reason the PTB put him in office. Of course, his continuation of .01% money for the banks and other policies keeps him in good standing. Great for Wallstreet but these same policies of continued globalization are the end of the middle class.
Austerity cannot save Greece or the US.
Default is the only solution.
Riots? My city announced the cancellation of its July 3-4 firework shows this morning citing cost concerns.
On the local web, however, a much different story is unfolding. On Monday, our police shut down one of our largest and most prolific beaches citing a rash of heat related injuries. (It was 88 and the lake water is still cold - as opposed to 100 in August with warm lake water) Well, the locals say the real reason was that gangs descended on the beach and were getting close to starting a riot. (there was a similar spate of events last summer as well)
So the buzz is that the potential for a rampage during our big fireworks shows are the real reason for the cancellation under cover of cost concerns. Having not been there on Monday, I can’t say one way or another, but a lot of locals are sure riled up about it and at least one established local columnist has picked it up.
Where do you live?
Chicago. (Which evidently trips the filters for some reason.)
“On Monday, our police shut down one of our largest and most prolific beaches citing a rash of heat related injuries. (It was 88 and the lake water is still cold - as opposed to 100 in August with warm lake water) Well, the locals say the real reason was that gangs descended on the beach and were getting close to starting a riot.”
He isn’t kidding. Can’t post a link (per Ben’s request) but search for the Chicago Sun Times & check out the photos. You barely see any sand because the beach was so crowded. Doesn’t look like fun to me at all.
Read an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal today. It talked about a dispute between Goldman Sachs and Libya. Wonder if the real reason we decided to bomb Ghadafi was because he would not play nice with the giant squid GS. Can’t be because of the people. Read an article yesterday in a British paper that I think was designed to elicit sympathy for the adventure. It talked about the number of rape victims by the Libyan government forces. However, there was a line in there about the fact that wives and others could not tell their husbands and relatives that they had been raped due to the fact they would be brought out to the desert to die. So who is the worse human being, the one that rapes a wife of his enemy or the man that kills his wife because she is the victim of a rape? Islam really is the religion of peace. All I know that either one of them is worth one dime of my money or one drop of my blood or anybody I care about. How is that “days not weeks” working out Obama?
Well, the ones that kill because of rape are our allies, so they must be good people.
P.S. read it today but it was in the May 31, 2011 edition.
One of my photographic mentors is Leslie Burns. (In case you’re interested, check out her Burns Auto Parts site. It’s a hoot.)
Anyway, Leslie is, to put it mildly, opposed to borrowing against the house to finance one’s photography business. And, surprise-surprise, so am I.
Matter of fact, I’m of the mind that I’ll use what I’ve got until I find a good enough assignment to pay for some photo-gizmo that I don’t have now.
Exactly how a successful busines should be run, IMHO. Good work, Slim.
“Perhaps, but they would not have tapped their equity to start a business had not a lot of other loanowners tapped theirs to artifically boost demand for goods and services these past few decades.”
There’s a small shop in our business park called “Hear No Evil”. It’s a high end audio and video equipment retailer. The fancy stuff they don’t sell at Best Buy. I can’t help but wonder how they are doing these days.
When I go for a post lunch stroll I walk past the place and I never see any customers.
There’s a small shop in our business park called “Hear No Evil”. It’s a high end audio and video equipment retailer. The fancy stuff they don’t sell at Best Buy. I can’t help but wonder how they are doing these days.
When I go for a post lunch stroll I walk past the place and I never see any customers.
I’m willing to bet that this business was funded with HELOC money. Or that it’s being used to launder drug money.
Some places like that do not do walk-ins. They usually have just enough inventory to demo but actually specialize in installation.
Their website and their front mentions show room hours. I don’t expect the place to be mobbed, but I never see any customers there.
Their website and their front mentions show room hours. I don’t expect the place to be mobbed, but I never see any customers there.
If this is the store to which you are referring, it does indeed have business hours.
It’s still different inside the Beltway.
I highlighted a few index values below that have dipped below 2000 levels (= 100.00). Detroit is particularly noteworthy, at 1/3 off nominal 2000 prices.
By contrast, expensive coastal cities (e.g. San Diego) still look extremely overvalued (53.88% above the nominal Y2K level). I imagine that would end pretty quickly if the GSEs stopped funding federally guaranteed mortgages up to $729,750. It must doubly suck to live in, say, Atlanta, knowing that not only is your home worth less than it was in 2000, but that your federal tax dollars are hard at work keeping coastal city home owners in the home equity wealth.
S&P index: Home prices keep falling in San Diego
By Lily Leung
11:28 a.m., May 31, 2011
San Diego County’s home prices fell 4 percent in March, the steepest year-over-year decrease in 18 months, Tuesday’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows.
Experts in the Southern California market say the drop could be attributed to buyers still on the fence, consumers struggling to secure financing, and the absence of tax incentives that heavily drove sales last year.
“It’s going to take a couple of years before people will buy homes again,” said Gary Painter, director of research at University of Southern California’s Lusk Center for Real Estate.
The ebbs and flows in home values are normal “given the depth of the recession,” Painter added. “We’re not going to see a quick recovery in the owner-occupied market.”
All of the major metro areas in the Case Shiller price index saw decreases in prices, except for Washington D.C., which saw a 4.3 percent increase year-over-year.
…
March overview
Metro Area March Index MOM % Change YOY % Change
Washington, D.C. 182.98 1.1% 4.3%
Detroit 67.07 -2.0% -0.9%
Los Angeles 167.77 -0.3% -1.7%
Dallas 112.89 -0.8% -2.5%
Boston 147.36 -1.7% -2.7%
New York 163.5 -0.9% -3.4%
Denver 120.55 -0.6% -3.8%
San Diego 153.88 -0.8% -4.0%
San Francisco 129.82 -0.1% -5.1%
Atlanta 98.36 -1.9% -5.2%
Las Vegas 97.18 -1.1% -5.3%
Miami 137.28 -0.8% -6.1%
Cleveland 96.8 -1.8% -6.3%
Charlotte 106.96 -2.4% -6.8%
Tampa 127.08 -0.7% -6.9%
Seattle 132.97 0.1% -7.5%
Chicago 110.57 -2.4% -7.6%
Portland 132.67 -0.7% -7.6%
Phoenix 100.27 -0.5% -8.4%
Minneapolis 105.57 -3.7% -10.0%
Source: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Note: MOM means month over month, while YOY means year over year.
Buy in the D.C. area now or be priced out forever.
I choose the latter.
We need some Minneapolis representation on the HBB. I had no idea they were among the most pained market. And look at Portland after staying stable in the beginnng of this downturn is now trying to play catch up. Boston just hasn’t really give up the ghost fully. I remember that ride up well. It has a lot more to give.
One of my cousins is a real estate agent in Minneapolis.
Truth be told, the rest of the family regard him in, shall we say, a rather questionable manner. Mostly due to his taste for expensive things. And for his tendency to show off said things. We Slims are not into conspicuous consumption.
Any-hoo, my aunt recently told me about one of his investment houses, which was in foreclosure. In essence, he told the bank that it was more than welcome to take the house back, ‘cuz he no longer wanted it.
Well, the bank didn’t want it either.
So it made my cousin a lowball offer to keep the property. Which he did. I suppose that means that he’s got a mortgage that’s well below the value at which the bank was foreclosing, I dunno. But, in any case, the house is still his.
The local public radio did an hour on the Twin Cities market this morning.
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2011/06/01/midday1/
Had it on as background noise at work so didn’t concentrate on it fully, but the silver lining was that the expert does not expect us to experience the further 5% declines that have been predicted for the rest of the nation. Truly, it is different here.
Number 1!
Mpls is represented. I am here! Was gone off HBB for awhile, but am back again.
Yes, the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul have fallen hard (real-estate value wise). Official Minnesota unemployment rate is at 6.6% (April 2011, not seasonally adjusted), so you can probably remove the causal link between unemployment and dropping real estate values (at least for this region).
I was laid off January (division was sold to another Fortune 10 company which discovered that we were redundant to their legacy operations). Found work on a contract basis close to my original salary, now a full-time gig with slightly better pay and bennies.
Lots of foreclosures around the metroplex (and rural areas) along with unfinished housing developments. It is rather humerous to see the local TV news anchors report the AP-Reuters news… they look honestly astonished and suprised that real estate values are falling here.
I started reading HBB in 2005 when I thought that I too was a some sort of a failure for not being able to purchase a Mcmansion and have boat, rv, atvs, plastic surgery, high-end vacations, and working for “the man” and not managing some sort of a self-employed endevour. HBB brought me back into more rational, logical thinking (Thanks!).
Used many anecodotes and definitive data from HBB and other sources to “poison the RE kool-aid”. Remember a neighbor (yep, you guessed it a REaltard!) telling me how me was making money hand over fist. Well, it wasn’t even 1 year after that he was no longer peddling used houses! Stayed unemployed for quite some time before going to work for “the man” in a real job setting.
I argued with the county assessors office regarding our humble abodes taxable value. They finally got the memo regarding dropping values. However, they increased the mill rate so that they would sill receive the same revenue stream even though they devalued RE by 30% over the past 3 years. Nice gig if you an get it! Instead of cutting spending, just change the tax rate and it is all good!
I expect RE values here to drop another 10% minimum over the next 1-2 years then flatline for 20+ years. No one (that has been drinking the “RE is a great investment” koolaid) likes to hear that prognostication.
Cheers!
I was laid off January (division was sold to another Fortune 10 company which discovered that we were redundant to their legacy operations). Found work on a contract basis close to my original salary, now a full-time gig with slightly better pay and bennies.
Congrats on the new gig, tgun!
Thanks for the update tgun! That’s an amazing drop w/only 6.6% unemployment. Which industries are taking the hits?
So glad you landed on your feet w/that lay-off and even earned yourself and inflation adjustment to boot. ; )
Many thanks CarrieAnn and Arizona Slim for the encouragement!
Industries taking the biggest hits: Medical Device Manufacturing (Medtronic, Boston Scientific, St. Jude Medical, and a whole host of smaller players and new venture operations).
Construction (new home, commercial, used home remodeling).
Secondary and tertiary industries / small businesses which support the above two.
Growth areas:
Agriculture
Manufacturing (think 3M, Honeywell, Ingersol-Rand, Cummins)
Some retail (Best Buy which is headquartered here, is on a hiring spree across many functions: Marketing, general management, purchasing, merchandising, IT, etc.).
Personally have seen many (ok, perhaps 20 to 25%) a small business and some not so small fold up shop and close their doors since 2008. Many vacant spaces in the area strip malls (businesses which I noticed closed: Taco Villa (midwest style mexican dining), trophy / engraving, mortgage brokers, a number of banks, mid-size restaurants, botique pet stores (which cater to the shall we say, exotic pets), Used book stores, ebay storefronts, chiropractor offices, tanning salons, nail salons, kitchen cabinet stores, home remodeling storefronts, flooring stores).
The big box stores (Lowes, Home Depot, Menards, Kohls, JCPenney, Target, Walmar) traffic appears down, but they seem to hire at least sporadically (sales associates, stockroom, cashiers).
Heard a very interesting stat last night- first time in over 36 years that Minnesota has had 0 traffic fatalities over the 2011 Memorial Weekend holiday period. Attributed to fewer people hitting the road and vigilant Highway Patrol enforcement / visibility along with cool/wet/stormy weather forecast over the weekend. Gas prices were down for the weekend, $3.59 to $3.65 per gallon prices were commonly seen.
Resort / lake recreational areas “up north” are feeling the pinch (fewer customers, and smaller expenditures by customers).
then flatline for 20+ years.
Perhaps “remodeling” could be a “Long Term Capital Management” goal.
Are these listing prices or sale prices? I think the DC realtors are just being optimistic. The bellwether for DC will be this fall, I suspect.
It will be interesting to see what happens if we have a government shut down or three. I still can’t get any idea if we are going to miss the debt limit increase deadline. As far as I can tell, there haven’t been any leaks about what the administration will do if they actually run out of money though some group in Treasury must be working on a contingency plan. But if there aren’t enough cuts in that deal to please the House freshmen, there will be more shut down threats in the fall and they will effect contractors as well as employees.
Oh, yeah. That puts everyone in the mood to buy a house.
What can they do? They’re running a trillion plus deficit. Making gov’t workers pay more into their retirement plans won’t put a dent into it.
A few years ago Pat Buchannan predicted that one day we would run out of cash and our troops would suddenly find themselves stranded at their foreign posts with their supply chain cut off. Not saying that will happen, but it sure would be interesting.
Unlike “The Ten Thousand”, there will be no reason to go back to the USA, if things get that bad.
Look for a bunch of new “Blackwater” startups. Who will have a lot heavier firepower. Gotta love that “Entrepreneureal Spirit”. Maybe they will have a special on CNBC.
Or even better……suppose a single nuclear attack sub decided to “go rogue” and held the world’s shipping traffic hostage? Shipping company in London or Hong Kong gets a periscope picture of their supertanker e-mailed to them from the sub, with a note saying that a torpedo will be launched if a 5% “transit fee” isn’t paid. In gold.
Better still, who needs a submarine? A single A-4 based close to the Malacca Straits, 3-4 weeks of fuel, and a couple of dozen 500 pounders. Get away with that for a couple of weeks, and you could retire. Or, figure out who would benefit if something like that actually happened, and get some “venture capital” money up front.
Really, the PTB have no idea the kind of chaos that could be caused, if a few people just put their mind to it……
What will they do? Well, there are two issues that have to be treated separately.
Boehner says no debt limit increase unless there are budget cuts equal to the amount the limit is increased. As far as I know, he left the time frame very much up in the air. The limit increase amount that is being tossed around is about $2 trillion. If they come up with cuts of $2 trillion over 10 years or 20 years, stuff like making fed employees pay more into their defined benefit retirement plans will have some impact. It isn’t enough, but it will be a start. That is straight on budget negotiations. Doing it outside the context of the actual appropriations bills is odd and kind of unneeded, since the next budget year starts at the end of September, but they can do it now if they want to.
If they don’t raise the debt limit and Secretary Geitner runs out of ways to borrow without borrowing, you will have to see an immediate decrease in government outflows to match inflows. Not sending out the money is technically illegal as it is either already appropriated (Dept of Agriculture salaries through the end of the year) or doesn’t have to be appropriated (paying Doc Smith for mom’s checkup). I’ve heard a variety of numbers but an immediate reduction in government cash payments of around 30% is in the ball park. There is no way to do that without cutting large costs savagely. So, for example, they might cut all Social Security payments by 20%, put all Fed workers on minimum wage, cut payments to docs and hospitals that provide Medicare services by 50%, etc.
And then tell everyone that they will pay them the rest when the debt limit gets raised.
It would make for quite a stir in the economy.
” I’ve heard a variety of numbers but an immediate reduction in government cash payments of around 30% is in the ball park. There is no way to do that without cutting large costs savagely. So, for example, they might cut all Social Security payments by 20%, put all Fed workers on minimum wage, cut payments to docs and hospitals that provide Medicare services by 50%, etc.”
Maybe all of that would finally get civil unrest going in a big way.
I don’t wish for civil unrest. Not that my wishes matter much, but I don’t wish for it. Not if it means people on the edge of survival (like seniors living on their $800 Social Security check each month) going without, even if only for a week.
The Republicans think that if there is civil unrest, they can just declare open season on all those worthless parasites, and let their constituents start blasting with all those AR-15s they’ve been buying for the past ten years.
They will never admit it, but a significant proportion of the Republican Party believes anarchy is a winning proposition for them.
I’m not EVEN kidding.
By the way, there is a lot that could happen without getting to civil unrest. I don’t know how many people could get to the Mall if Metro wasn’t functioning, but it might be interesting to find out.
I still hope they figure out a way to up the debt ceiling. A government shutdown is less disruptive to the nation than hitting the debt ceiling would be, and we haven’t even discussed what happens if US debt ceases to be rated triple A.
X-GSfixr: I have to disagree with you on the Rs wanting anarchy - if anything, the communists/socialists using the unions and democratic party are the real culprits.
Regardless of which side one leans to, there can be no doubt that the PTB are continuing to increase their control over the minions, and (puts on tinfoil hat) this makes the existence of those domestic internment facilities (cue black helicopter sounds in the background) start to make more sense.
We are living in scary times, that’s for sure, when Chicago closes the beach and claims it’s due to the hot weather.
When you use words like “communists” and “socialists” and “using,” (particularly in the context of your simplistic overview,) it makes you sound like a nitwit from the 1950’s.
One supposes the irony escapes you….
Based on (repeat) sales — that is, houses have to have sold at least twice since the beginning of the Case-Shiller data sample to be reflected in their indexes.
Wishing prices have nothing to do with it…
Different in the Beltway…….I hear this so many times yet I don’t see it. Sure, the houses sell a bit quicker then the rest of the nation but that is all about to change.
When I search for a house I leave it at $400,000 (Actually modest for the DC Metro area) and have the selections for Rockville, Bethesda, Kensington, Olney and a few more places. I see more and more houses every few weeks come up o the search because $420,000 homes get dropped down to the $400K range.
These houses will still sit a bit longer, but it isnt like I need to jump at anything. My favorite house in Olney just popped back up on the market. SS which was sold in the fall, now back with an ‘improved’ price of $350K.
double dippity do da.
Why is the NYT bizarrely optimistic?
Especially in NYC - which still needs about a 50% haircut…
—————-
Bottom May Be Near for Slide in Housing
NYT | May 31, 2011 | DAVID STREITFELD
How low can the market go?
For real estate, some economists say, an end to the seemingly endless decline in housing values might be in sight.
Not immediately. At the moment, prices are still dropping. In 20 large cities, prices fell 0.8 percent in March from the previous month, according to the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index released Tuesday. That pushed the closely watched index below its level of two years ago to a new post-bubble low, and put it 33.1 percent under its July 2006 peak.
Few analysts expect housing prices to rebound anytime soon. But quite a few are predicting that the market is close to the moment when things will stop getting worse, which will be a major improvement all by itself.
why can’t these analyst just look at historical norms based on fundamentals (i.e. wages) and say that’s the bottom…with a bit of “shoot the mean”.
“why can’t these analyst just look at historical norms based on fundamentals (i.e. wages) and say that’s the bottom…with a bit of “shoot the mean”.”
If the country’s economic prospects are diminished from those in the past, couldn’t the future mean be lower than the historical mean with an overshoot on the down side lower than either?
Why, yes! Yes, they can!
The NY Times is pessimistic about the odds of my daughters staying in our community after they leave college. Unless they don’t leave home.
And you left out the best part, from the same article:
Bottom May Be Near for Slide in Housing
Peter Muoio, senior principal of Maximus Advisors, says he thinks the market has already bottomed, although he expects it to bounce around in a narrow range for a few years rather than recovering. And James F. Smith, chief economist for the investment firm Parsec Financial and a rare housing bull, is predicting a 25 percent climb from here by mid-decade.
The Motley Fool
The Hangover Continues: $20 Billion-Plus Robosigning Settlement?
By Cindy Johnson
May 31, 2011
Just when you think banks should run out of shoes to drop, they give you a reason to think they’re centipedes.
The latest case of falling footwear involves a potential liability of $17 billion or more from civil lawsuits related to foreclosure methods such as robosigning. Some government officials are pushing for a settlement of more than $20 billion. On top of that, the Justice Department is asking for another $500 million to $1 billion in penalties. Justice and the Department of Housing and Urban Development could potentially file claims for billions more. Banks had hoped to settle for $5 billion, but federal and state officials have dismissed that proposal.
But, hey, $20 billion or thereabouts must be pocket change to an industry that received hundreds of billions in TARP bailout funds, right? Not so fast. For the first quarter — banks’ most profitable since before the financial crisis—the industry earned $29 billion.
The usual suspects
The banks at risk of having to pay out billions to settle include the usual suspects: Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup (NYSE: C), and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC).
…
And how many of you HBB’ers are still enabling these fraudsters by having accounts in one or more of them?
I happily closed my BofA account back in the 1990s. Don’t miss that place at all.
I dumped Citi in the 90’s. Right about the time I realized that no one cared about there being a local branch of your bank in town. In college in rural NH it was an issue. In NYC, not so much.
In Costa Mesa, CA in the late ’80s, I used to spend 30 minutes of my lunch time every Friday to cash my paycheck at BofA. There were 8 or more windows, but only two available at peak time. Their tellers got to have relaxed lunches; we didn’t.
Have never used them since. Seems like their respect of customers has not changed, with needy mortgage holders getting back-of-the-bus treatment.
Same Ol’, Same Ol’
A high school friend of mine just went to work at Wells Fargo.
And how many of you HBB’ers are still enabling these fraudsters by having accounts in one or more of them?
How many of you are using their credit cards, even if you don’t carry a balance??
Guilty as charged (Citibank) but I’m finally starting to move my accounts to a small, customer-oriented bank: First Republic. By the end of June I plan to have no remaining business with any of the bailed out banks, aside from a BofA credit card that I keep because of its seasoned credit status (21 years and counting).
Indications
June 1, 2011, 8:47 a.m. EDT
U.S. stock futures slip more after ADP data
Nokia tumbles again; Macy’s same-store sales beat expectations
By Kate Gibson and Simon Kennedy , MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock-index futures added to their losses Wednesday after data on private-sector employment in May proved to be unexpectedly gloomy.
Automatic Data Processing Inc. ADP +1.81% reported that U.S. companies added only 38,000 jobs last month, far below the gain of almost 175,000 expected by analysts.
…
Not to worry. The PPT will make up tomorrow most of what was lost today.
Please, GOD!!!
will the the 10 year break 3?
QE3 is in the bag.
QE3 is in the bag.
“Lookie Wilbur!, is that not the longest bungee-cord you’ve ever seen? It’s coming from the enormous armored truck,… sign says: “Federal Reserve Private Corporation Inc.”
“How deep is the chasm Betty?”
wonder if they can make this one in 3D?
No question about that but there never was: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43233866
“Investors should prepare themselves for a third round of quantitative easing”
And individuals (I refuse to call them “consumers”) will grab their ankles and bend over as “volatile” prices shoot through the roof.
Seems like the Fed will have to execute some stock market bloodletting before making the case that it is time for QE3.
From James Howard Kunstler’s piece on Monday (at Kunstler com):
“A nation of tattooed, hopelessly fat, angry people without jobs and incomes …”
How’s that Hope and Change working out for you now kidz?
Tattooed, fat and angry is no way to go through life, son.
Drunk on the other hand…
Except at Wal-Mart.
He forgot to add “unskilled”. These losers made EZ bucks during the bubble.
I still don’t get why tattoos are supposed to be cool. Are they pretending to be “bad asses” when they’re only “fat asses”?
As that sage Lisa Simpson once opined….
“…how rebellious, in a conformist sort of way…”
(on Bart getting an earring)
Same goes for shaved heads, goatees, Harley wear, “Tap Out” shirts, horn rim glasses, etc.
“All my friends are non-conformist, so I decided to non-conformist too.”
Ummmm…
I tell my kids - I’m so glad I don’t have to be cool anymore. And how cool is that.
Give me your unskilled, your tattooed,
Your fat asses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the angry losers without jobs, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”
Hey Jeff,
What ever happened to trash compactors -
Don’t forget the obligatory Village People costume and Hardly Ableson.
Do Fat and Tattoo go hand in hand? I have seen the explosion of both in both males and females in their 20’s. Talk about a bubble more serious than housing….
I see an investment opportunity in tattoo removal technology.
Those aren’t the people I’d worry about, if I were the Robber Barons.
I’d worry about all those technically trained and saavy people who have been out of work and lost everything, thanks to various bankster supported policies over the past 30 years.
They could create all kinds of mayhem if they wanted to. And they might actually select the appropriate targets.
But you know what the thing is about rich people? They bitch about paying taxes, but don’t mind spending fortunes to isolate themselves from the riff-raff. “Riff-raff” meaning anyone with a net worth of less than 100 million dollars. They don’t go to WalMart, or Target, or Whole Foods. They have paid pizzants do their shopping for them.
Which means that they won’t know what hit them, if the S ever HTF.
I went to school with a microbiologist (who is now working on malaria, thank God) that said, “if anybody ever *ucks me over, I will poison the well.”
And this is what the PTB aren’t getting. We’re a lot closer to Baghdad circa 2004, than we are to a safe secure society. The trend is not our friend.
We have a bunch of people getting screwed over who are at least as smart as the Iraqis. And we all know how that turned out. Especially since you won’t have the US Army to put down the insurgency, you will have a bunch of cops who just had their pay and pensions cut.
Now that any kind of technical sabotage is considered an “Act of War”, I guess we should look forward to smart bombs being dropped on homeless camps.
X-GS, comments like yours have been on this board for at least the five-plus years I’ve been frequenting it. “Blood in the streets” was the common phrase used to describe the chaos that was about to hit in the next few weeks or months.
It’s quite brilliant, like birds with feathering so they appear to have eyes on their wings to scare away predators. Look, there!, at the tattoo. Fat, what fat?
Whenever I see a taco or sandwich-maker with arms covered in tattoos, I want to ask, “are those permanent?” because I heard some of them are not. They are really getting huge and complex, and yeah on fat arms..what price glory!
I read a great comeback to a girl who is considering getting the “tramp stamp” tatoo on her lower back so it shows up over those low-cut jeans: “Tatoo ink and spinal fluid don’t mix, and no anesthesiologist will risk giving you an epidural.”
And you just watch the wheels turn in the girl’s noggin…
“A nation of tattooed, hopelessly fat, angry people without jobs and incomes …”
Welcome aboard the Axiom.
“Welcome aboard the Axiom.”
Is that like the economic recovery?
Naw… a Wall-E reference.
QE3 or BARF3 has long been a given to anyone with half a brain. So these folks will get all excited again. Prepare for the coming of the GGD (great, great, depression. Unless of course you believe gubmint can fix it. LOL!
ITEM: Wall Street Baffled by Slowing Economy, Low Yields: Trader
Wednesday, 1 Jun 2011 | By: Margo D. Beller
Special to CNBC.com
Wall Street is having a hard time figuring out what to do now that the U.S. economy appears to be sputtering and yields are so low, Peter Yastrow, market strategist for Yastrow Origer, told CNBC.
“What we’ve got right now is almost near panic going on with money managers and people who are responsible for money,” he said. “They can not find a yield and you just don’t want to be putting your money into commodities or things that are punts that might work out or they might not depending on what happens with the economy.
“We need to find real yield and real returns on these assets. You see bad data, you see Treasurys rally, you see all bonds and all fixed-income rally and then the people who are betting against the U.S. economy start getting bearish on stocks. That’s a huge mistake.”
“Prepare for the coming of the GGD (great, great, depression. Unless of course you believe gubmint can fix it. LOL!”
I was under the impression that the Federal Reserve is a private organization, owned by its member banks.
They are, by the blessing of one “august” body, their a-hole buddies the congress. So basically one in the same, it’s an incestuous relationship.
“thanks to Ben Bernanke”
i’m not sure he understands the consequences of his gratitude.
We’re working on the “trickle up” economic plan. AKA “Eating your young”.
Lower wages and raise costs on J6P, then make bank on loaning him money while he thinks his income downturn is temporary, or all he needs to do is work harder. Replace that $30/hour manufacturing job with a $10/hr Wal Mart job. Works great until J6P runs out of money and credit.
Now its the low level banksters turn. Generate 10-15% a year returns, and we don’t care how you do it. If you can’t, we’ll replace you with someone who will.
Fraud? Seen anybody go to jail for that yet? So what are you worried about? Do whatcha gotta do.
“Replace that $30/hour manufacturing job with a $10/hr Wal Mart job.”
I’m not sure that there were even that many $30/hr jobs to begin with (more like $20/hr jobs), but your point is well taken.
My brother used to be a manager at a unionized tire factory. The top hourly was was in the low $20/hr range, and some of those guys put in enough OT to get close to a 100K annual income. So while they were working 80 hour weeks they were getting paid fairly well.
And right here is the crux of our problem:
Wall Street is having a hard time figuring out what to do now that the U.S. economy appears to be sputtering and yields are so low, Peter Yastrow, market strategist for Yastrow Origer, told CNBC.
“What we’ve got right now is almost near panic going on with money managers and people who are responsible for money,” he said. “They can not find a yield and you just don’t want to be putting your money into commodities or things that are punts that might work out or they might not depending on what happens with the economy.
“We need to find real yield and real returns on these assets. You see bad data, you see Treasurys rally, you see all bonds and all fixed-income rally and then the people who are betting against the U.S. economy start getting bearish on stocks. That’s a huge mistake.”
—————–
They are “looking for yield” in a world where the masses have been bled dry. As mentioned above, now the capitalists will turn on each other.
Instead of “looking for yield,” I wish they would **INVEST** (the real meaning of it) in R&D and in manufacturing facilities in the USA. Of course, we all know that won’t happen…
Sup with the private sector jobs number? Screw the private sector, means nothing, it’s the job of the gubmint to “create” jobs. No worries, they’re on it!
It must be different where you live.
San Diego Union Tribune
Fewer government jobs during tough times
By Brian Joseph
Tuesday, May 24, 2011 at 5:35 p.m.
In this time of crushing budget deficits and guaranteed public pension plans, one sentiment seems widespread among voters: government always grows. Even with cutbacks and a floundering economy, many Americans clearly believe that government only gets bigger.
But in California, government has indeed shrunk by one metric: the number of employees on the payroll. Employment numbers independently collected by the state Employment Development Department show that since the housing market collapsed in 2008 more than 100,000 federal, state and local government jobs have been eliminated in California, creating the worst job market in that sector since at least 1990.
All of those lost jobs can be attributed to cuts made to address the state’s chronic, multi-billion budget deficit or to the economic conditions that contributed to the deficit, California economists say.
“It’s indicative to how very wired government is into the economy,” said Christopher Thornberg, founding principle at Beacon Economics in Los Angeles.
More than 3,600 government jobs have been lost, on average, each month since June 2008, when government employment in California peaked at more than 2,522,000. In all, more than 118,000 government jobs — or about 5 percent — were lost through March 2011.
…
Jobs lost
How the reduction of government jobs at all levels in California compares to other hard hit sectors since June 2008.
Government: 118,000
Manufacturing: 201,000
Construction: 280,000
Source: California Employment Development Department
“But in California, government has indeed shrunk by one metric: the number of employees on the payroll. ”
I wonder how many of those legendary $200K/year lifeguards and lunch ladies got the axe?
So what happened before 1964?
Oh that’s right, I remember as a small child having to step over the dead and starving on the sidewalk.Nothing like helping folks become dependent on taxpayer hand outs, it’s been working out just great!
ITEM: Congress Mulls Cuts to Food Stamps Program Amid Record Number of Recipients.
ABC News’ Huma Khan reports: Congress is under pressure to cut the rapidly rising costs of the federal government’s food stamps program at a time when a record number of Americans are relying on it.
The House Appropriations Committee today will review the fiscal year 2012 appropriations bill for the Department of Agriculture that includes $71 billion for the agency’s “Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.” That’s $2 billion less than what President Obama requested but a 9 percent increase from 2011, which, critics say, is too large given the sizeable budget deficit.
A record number of Americans — about 14 percent — now rely on the federal government’s food stamps program and its rapid expansion in recent years has become a politically explosive topic.
More than 44.5 million Americans received SNAP benefits in March, an 11 percent increase from one year ago and nearly 61 percent higher than the same time four years ago.
Nearly 21 million households are reliant on food stamps.
Opponents of the program argue that money from the food stamps budget — with what they call its increasingly lax requirements — needs to be shifted to other programs such as education and child nutrition. The program’s supporters argue that at a time of economic decline, such welfare programs are even more important to try to keep Americans from spiraling into poverty.
The cost of the food stamps program has increased rapidly since it was established by Congress in 1964.
Perhaps they’ll have to change the parameters a bit. I’m remembering that gentleman who won the lottery but was allowed to stay on the program since he received the winnings in one lump sum. His “income” was still considered to be below the requirement. I’m sure that’s not the only loophole that could use some closing.
We would have lots of soup kitchens now if we did not have food stamps. 1964 was good times. 1934 and 2011 not so much.
I worked in a soup kitchen every Saturday night in 1964. The inner cities of Los Angeles were beyond destitute then. In fact, that summer, they rioted.
Why we need even bigger and more expensive government.
Those poor public servants. And this does not include compensation for health care and pensions.
Oh well - we can always raise taxes and print more money to pay for it.
——————
77,000 feds paid more than governors Government salaries put under scrutiny
The Washington Times | May 31, 2011 | Stephen Dinan
More than 77,000 federal government employees throughout the country — including computer operators, more than 5,000 air traffic controllers, 22 librarians and one interior designer — earned more than the governors of the states in which they work.
The findings, from a Congressional Research Service report requested by Sen. Tom Coburn, Oklahoma Republican, were released at a time when public workers’ salaries and benefits are under scrutiny across the country as governments try to streamline.
In Maryland, 7,283 federal employees — about 7 percent of all full-time federal employees in the state — earned more than Gov. Martin O’Malley’s $150,000 salary. Maryland was topped by Colorado, which in 2009 had 10,875 employees who made more than the $90,000 salary of the governor, Bill Ritter.
“Across America, governors are being asked to do more with less, often at lower pay than federal employees in their states. The pay gap between governors and federal employees should prompt Congress to take a closer look at federal salaries,” Mr. Coburn said. “With our debt and deficits spiraling out of control, now is the time to ask agencies — not just governors — to do more with less.”
This simply shows that the governors are underpaid, right?
Don’t govenors usually get a really nice house to live in?
One thing the report doesn’t mention, for political reasons Governors are generally not the highest paid state and local government workers in their states.
They should check out what the football and basketball coaches at state universities in Coburn’s Oklahoma earn.
Don’t govenors usually get a really nice house to live in?
Not in AZ. Our governors don’t get a mansion. They have to find their own place. Fortunately, there’s no shortage of available houses in Phoenix.
Someone tried to burn down the Govornor’s mansion in Austin.
Gov Perry has to live in a rental. a $10k/mnth rental.
Does that number include all the money that governors pocket on the side?
It’s a lot easier to find a governor that it is to find a decent tech guy or air traffic controller.
Maybe our local governor can do some air traffic control on the side.
He can thank Jesus every day that there isn’t a mid-air.
Jesus is the answer to all our problems you know. If things are still Effed up, then you obviously haven’t been praying hard enough, or even worse, you’ve been supporting them God-less, heathen liberal-commies.
Yes, and many of those same $150K jobs would pay double that in private sector jobs. And I know this sounds bad, but the government needs to “retain talent” too. Say you have a private company that wants to cut a corner in a safety-related process. You need a qualified engineer in the government to evaluate the cut corner and tell the company “no.” You could say the same about accountants or tax experts or agriculture or any other agency which protects the public. If you don’t pay the gov workers that salary, they will migrate to industry and be the corner-cutters instead of protecting the people. And the people will ahve little protection.
Right again, oxide.
Wait until Mon$anto finds out what China is doing with their yearly collections of Mon$anto’s GMO seeds, can’t wait to see Mon$anto take ‘em to court & $ue the heck out of ‘em.
China: Food safety violators to face death penalty:
May 30, 2011|By Steven Jiang, CNN
Death Penalty:
Amid deepening public concerns over the country’s food safety following a wave of recent scandals, China’s highest court has ordered judges nationwide to hand down harsher sentences, including the death penalty, to people convicted of violating food safety regulations.
In a directive released by the state-run Xinhua news agency over the weekend, the Supreme People’s Court said in cases where people die from food safety violations, convicted suspects should be given the death sentence, while criminals involved in non-lethal cases should face longer prison terms and larger fines.
Hwy-Great Documentary (1.5 hrs long):
“The World According To Monsanto”
I’m 1/2 way through it (treadmill viewing) and it is an amazing story. It’s 6+ yrs old, but it is a history lesson on Monsanto in the last 20 yrs. And I thought “The Future Of Food” was telling.
Thankxs! (My post-graduate degree was in Evolutionary Genetics) It’s Mon$anto’s human food+chemical’s busine$$ model mind-$et I find to be “TruePoi$onou$™” … but hey, like those Moody & Standard Poor’s “True$erialEnablers™” that’s just ol’ “Hwy’s opinion”
Hwy-I found it free online.
Sorry if this was posted, haven’t got to the HBB back issues yet. Mr. Cole’s rock climbing lesson #4 & Mojave desert geology hunt was educational & fun.
“TrueBambooLie™” + “TrueBamboozler’s™” =
heheeeheeeheehaahaaahaaheeehaahaaa… (Hwy50™)
“This is no longer a story about Longtop, and it is not a story about Deloitte,” he added. “Given the centrality of Chinese banks to the global economy, it’s a story much bigger than Deloitte or Longtop.”
The Audacity of Chinese Frauds:
NYT / FLOYD NORRIS, On Thursday May 26, 2011
“What is stunning about Longtop and some other recent disasters is the list of smart people who were fooled.”
Longtop did not go public through a reverse merger. Its initial public offering, in 2007, was underwritten by Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank. Morgan Stanley was a lead manager in a 2009 offering of more shares. Major owners of the stock included hedge funds run by people known as “tiger cubs” because they got their start at Julian Robertson’s Tiger Fund.
On May 4, only a couple of weeks before the fateful struggle at Longtop offices, an analyst for Morgan Stanley, Carol Wang, wrote:
“Longtop’s stock price has been very volatile in recent days amid fraud allegations that management has denied. Our analysis of margins and cash flow gives us confidence in its accounting methods. We believe market misconceptions provide a good entry point for long-term investors.”
By then, Longtop officials had begun to scramble. According to its last audited balance sheet, cash accounted for more than half of Longtop’s $606 million in assets. Bears were asking why the company needed all that cash and were questioning whether it existed.
This is not an isolated event. I know some people who have performed due diligence on potential investments in China. Companies that were supposedly spending hundreds of millions annually on capex and the factory is full of 1950’s lathes. Money may have been spent, but paid to the supplier brother in law who provided equipment worth $10 bucks. It’s a massive ponzi. Folks at Goldman must get all giddy with the fraud that can be accomplished over there.
A close friend has more than a little business experience with China. Friend says that the amount of corruption is off the charts. To the point where China gives notoriously corrupt countries like Mexico a serious run for their money.
And, as for the stats coming out of the Chinese government? Don’t trust ‘em further than you can swing a bull by the tail.
You know it. Always something you have to watch out for with foreign investments.
Goldman Sucks…….. Douches Bank.
I’m noticing a pattern here……..
If the Justice Department was actually that, they’d go after all these pukes with RICO.
Hell, they wouldn’t even need wiretaps. Just pay someone $10/hour to copy all their press releases.
I just love the reader comments, no love lost for CNBC:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43239586
I didn’t have to go far ’til I found one I liked:
“CNBC shares a huge portion of blame for trotting out fake analyst after fake analyst. Who all swore on a stack of Lehman Bros. portfolio prospectus’s. That the consumer wasn’t being impacted by inflation, and that there was no demand destruction. As wallstreet is a gang of crooks, CNBC is their gangbang Wwhore”
Fantastic comments in response to that article.
Seems that more and more people are beginning to wake up to the real cause of our economic decline (and it has nothing to do with unions).
Let the bankers fry in he!!
I noticed very little boating activity on Seneca Lake this Memorial Day, like SUGuy posted above on the Hudson . We had an awful April, with high water and cool weather, but now it is excellent and only 60% of the docks at my club even have boats at them. The dock owners on either side of mine say they will not launch this year and several diehard boaters have put the for sale sign on the dash. Usually everyone goes out on the lake for Memorial Day BBQ, rafting up and all that. This time I think all did the grill thing at the dock.
We’re sure to get some move up new members from the marinas (cheaper here and better facilities cause it’s a nonprofit club) but at this pace it looks like I’ll have plenty of open water around me this season.
I have friends w/boats w/club memberships and I have friends w/horses w/ barn and vet payments. Both tell me just how scary their money situation is to the point of marital strife and/or bankruptcy discussions but every year these two huge budget items stay on. I can see that the horeses are pets and there is a bond but there are lessons and special dress purchases for competitions besides their upkeep. And we all know a boat is a hole in the water into which you pour money. I’m not making a judgement on what they should and shouldn’t do. It’s just that despite the fact that it’s what’s causing them to lose sleep, people will cling to what they feel makes life worth living.
Funny my Dad was into boats and Mom into horses. They’re divorced now.
I’ve worked around the boat being a budget extra by making it my principle residence. That pretty much excludes the budget extra of having a spouse in the same stroke. Spouses are much more expensive than horses or boats. Not kidding.
There are two live-aboard couples here, the rest I refer to as cottagers. Yes, it is quite an expense for them. Not so much for me, an old $10K boat with no payments, I do all the maintenance myself and the cost of the dock is less than $1500 per (8 month) year, including utilities, lawn mowing, cable (not used), parties, etc. As a vacation platform, well that can be more expensive, but within reason.
Living the hobby is a benefit of age and discharged responsibilities. I sometimes wish I had followed these dreams at the start, rather than the path of Engineering School and Cubicle Combat, not to mention lawnmowing and painting and wall papering (ugh) and mortgages!
Bought into a partnership in a pontoon boat about five years ago. Paid 1/3 the “blue book” value at the time, between $2K and $3K. Annual expenses for maintenance, slip fee, insurance, state tag, etc. varies but averages about $400 for each of us. Four gallons of gas for an afternoon on the water, beached part of the time for serious (for retirees anyway) partying.
Brace for QE3
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43233866
My bad, This has been posted several times today.
In other news, I had to re-apply for me job as my team is being cut from 9 people to 5. Two are retiring which leaves 7 people for 5 spots. If you want to find out real quick who your friends are, try this out sometime.
Luckily I have been proactive with training and certification and volunteering for extra crap, so I should survive.
Good luck Muggy. Not a nice situation to be in.
I’ll keep my fingers crossed for you, Muggy. Best of luck.
” If you want to find out real quick who your friends are, try this out sometime.”
Sounds like you need to buy that friend a deer hat and take him camping.
That’s a sucky position to be in, Muggy.
Best of luck to you!
I dunno how things are in your respective fishwraps, but the Online Comment Strike Force is really hammering the real estate stories here in Tucson. First, we have:
Double dip confirmed in national home prices
A tasty comment from the Strike Force:
Here’s what the “experts” have said.
August 2006:
“2006 will go down as one of the best years to buy property ever” - Foreclosure Expert Alexis McGee
December 2006:
“The U.S. housing market will weaken further, but the sharpest decline is over as inventories of unsold homes decrease. This is not the bottom, but the worst is behind us.” - Alan Greenspan
June 2007:
”There are signs that the market could be bottoming out. The median home price rose in more than half of all metro areas, or 82, during the first quarter. It was flat in one area and declined in 62 areas. That was a reversal from the fourth quarter, when home prices fell in more than half of metro areas… It appears the worst of the price correction is behind us,” says NAR President Pat V. Combs.
October 2007:
“I am confident that this winter will be our housing bottom.” - Foreclosure Expert Alexis McGee
May 2008:
“April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market.” - The Wall Street Journal
July 2008:
“The Housing Crisis Is Over” - The Wall Street Journal
September 2008:
“The Housing Bottom is in Sight.” - Foreclosure Expert Alexis McGee
December 2010:
Alexis McGee and her husband went into default in June on their Fair Oaks home and on a property at a resort in Squaw Valley.
Ahhhh, that was refreshing. Here’s another story:
USDA offers no-money-down loans on new homes near Tucson
‘Rural’ mortgage: Get it while you can
The Online Comment Strike Force really tears into this one:
Best of all it is using OUR tax money courtesy of the USDA. Which makes me really wonder, why is the USDA in the mortgage business?
So the USDA is using tax money to give good deals to people with no money so we can further push sprawl into a desert. I am glad I am seeing my hard earned tax dollars go to a good cause…..
‘September 2008:
“The Housing Bottom is in Sight.” - Foreclosure Expert Alexis McGee
December 2010:
Alexis McGee and her husband went into default in June on their Fair Oaks home and on a property at a resort in Squaw Valley.’
“So the USDA is using tax money to give good deals to people with no money so we can further push sprawl into a desert. I am glad I am seeing my hard earned tax dollars go to a good cause…..”
Is that a new form of agricultural price supports - allow more sprawl removing land from agricultural production (admittedly a lot more limited in the desert unless there’s ready access to cheap water)?
Priceless!!!
The PPT must have had a 3 martini lunch at the C.C. today. They’ll be back on the job tomorrow.
Maybe they had some “maid trouble” at the $3,000 per night hotel suite…
Seems like Mr Market is pretty hungover after yesterday’s bender on the back of terrible housing, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence data
So what’s the deal with little Ant-nee Wiener? He likes to roll up a sock stuff into the front of his underwear and tweet young girls with his pic? Cool, another up standing POS in the cesspool.
He should take his show on the road and call it, “Little Ant-nee Weenie and the Weenie-ettes”
Pffft. And here I thought I was in a WeinerGate-free zone.
From MarketWatch:
American Express says affluent spending rebounds
American Express Co said its well-heeled cardholders ratcheted up spending at a quicker than expected pace coming out of the economic slump, bolstering the company’s performance.
So, do we believe in trickle down economics or not? I’m confused.
Rising 401k balances were supposed to make those people go out and spend, but sadly jewelry and handbag manufacturing aren’t really industries to base the world’s largest economy upon.
We’ve got a new fad, locally….
Mennonites on Harleys.
And no, they aren’t decked out in all the Harley gear. They are wearing the standard issue Mennonite wardrobe. Men and Women. Anybody who’s seen a Mennonite knows what I’m talking about.
And, being the thrifty types that they are, they probably saved up the cash and bought the bikes outright. Or they’re riding used bikes that they purchased from people who were, ahem, motivated to sell.
Which covers about 90% of the local Harley riding clientele.
I’ve got to admit though, I’d be riding one a lot if I had one, with gas at close to $4/gallon.
I’d probably get a V-Rod though, just to pizz the purists off.
If I didn’t get something like a Honda Interceptor. The trouble is, every time I start getting the bike itch, one of my friends crashes and burns, and is in rehab for 12 months.
Around here, we lose 2 or 3 40-50 something schlubs every weekend. The local fishwrap must have a template like……
” A (age of rider) year old motorcycle rider from (city of residence) was killed on (Saturday, Sunday) (afternoon, night). Police say (name of rider) was killed when he lost control of his motorcycle and hit a (guardrail, tree, vehicle).
Police spokesman said the rider was not wearing a helmet.”
We’ve got Mennonites near us. But I haven’t noticed anyone in that garb on bikes. I’ll take a ride down to that particular Walmart in their area and check it out. It’s pretty country and it’s been a while.
“If we do not see a meaningful recovery in home prices by the end of the year,” says Christopher Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics, “we may need to contemplate impairment charges on first liens owned by banks and wholesale write-downs of second-lien exposures.
“This implies solvency issues for Bank of America, Wells Fargo, J.P. Morgan Chase and Citigroup, and big losses for the U.S. government and private investors.”
The problem for the Big Four is that their books are still laden with mortgages valued at 2007 home prices. If they were valued accurately, many would be worth 25% less. If they were in a housing hot spot like Nevada or Arizona, they’d be worth 50% less.
And if they were second mortgages — which in the event of a write-down are second in line behind the first — they’d be worth zero.
There will be no “meaningful recovery” in home prices before year-end. Yesterday, the Case-Shiller numbers confirmed the double dip in housing. In fact, housing prices have fallen by a larger percentage now than they did during the Great Depression.
~ Clipped from The 5Min Forecast
So, Pretend and Extend is not a permanent solution? So much for Plan A.
Florida governor signs welfare drug-screen measure
By the CNN Wire Staff June 1, 2011
(CNN) — Saying it is “unfair for Florida taxpayers to subsidize drug addiction,” Gov. Rick Scott on Tuesday signed legislation requiring adults applying for welfare assistance to undergo drug screening.
“It’s the right thing for taxpayers,” Scott said after signing the measure. “It’s the right thing for citizens of this state that need public assistance. We don’t want to waste tax dollars. And also, we want to give people an incentive to not use drugs.”
Under the law, which takes effect on July 1, the Florida Department of Children and Family Services will be required to conduct the drug tests on adults applying to the federal Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program. The aid recipients would be responsible for the cost of the screening, which they would recoup in their assistance if they qualify. Those who fail the required drug testing may designate another individual to receive the benefits on behalf of their children.
Shortly after the bill was signed, five Democrats from the state’s congressional delegation issued a joint statement attacking the legislation, one calling it “downright unconstitutional.”
“Governor Scott’s new drug testing law is not only an affront to families in need and detrimental to our nation’s ongoing economic recovery, it is downright unconstitutional,” said Rep. Alcee Hastings. “If Governor Scott wants to drug test recipients of TANF benefits, where does he draw the line? Are families receiving Medicaid, state emergency relief, or educational grants and loans next?”
Rep. Corrine Brown said the tests “represent an extreme and illegal invasion of personal privacy.”
Okay, I say we drug-test Governor Scott.
Scott is living off the government teat, too. Maybe he should go pizz in a cup.
But I love unintended consequences…….
Republicans have been saying for years that it’s primarily worthless drug addicts getting government checks. What are they going to come up with as a new excuse, if this testing shows that 90% of the recipients aren’t on drugs?
Another talking point shot to hell……..
That’s the beauty of talking points, they are disposable. They don’t form the agenda, they just decorate it.
“Read my lips”
“Deficits don’t matter”
“He tried to kill my daddy!”
“define is”
“I’m a fiscal conservative!”
“I’m a compassionate conservative!”
“‘Big bidness first, peon people
lastwhen it affectstheir health & well beingthe current election!”“Governor Scott’s new drug testing law is not only an affront to families in need and detrimental to our nation’s ongoing economic recovery, it is downright unconstitutional,” said Rep. Alcee Hastings. “If Governor Scott wants to drug test recipients of TANF benefits, where does he draw the line? Are families receiving Medicaid, state emergency relief, or educational grants and loans next?”
Oh pleeeze….
When I was in the army - we got drug tested every year.
In private employment, drug tested when you are hired and at random times.
Seems to me:
1. You can be drug tested to WORK to pay taxes
2. But it is “unconstitutional” to be drug tested to sit on your azz and get welfare
Speaking of which - where exactly is welfare (taking money from people who work and give it to people who don’t work at the point of a GUN in order to buy votes) in the constitution?
Probably right next to the constitutional “right” to an abortion
Probably right next to the constitutional “right” to an abortion
Gov’t $pending / Religion of choice…you seem to have a problem with the concept of personal intrusion of the private American person. But no problem with “TrueAnger!™” & “State Rights!”
heheeeheeeheehaahaaahaaheeehaahaaa… (Hwy50™)
&
BWAHAHAHicHAHAHicHAHAHAHAHicHAHAHic* (DennisN™)
“When I was in the army - we got drug tested every year.”
Did you have to pay for it?
We don’t want to waste tax dollars
BWAHAHAHicHAHAHicHAHAHAHAHicHAHAHic* (DennisN™)
Bomb-Bomb-Bomb, Bomb-Bomb Iraq
Bomb-Bomb-Bomb, Bomb-Bomb Afghan
2+ Trillion US Dollar$
700 Billion$…per year!
Food Stamps are destroying America!
Linda the Lunch Lady Lives Lavishly!
Should have sold in May, then walked away.
Should have sold in May, then walked away”
The end of QE2 can QE3 be far behind if this keeps up?
Realtors Are Liars
Whew, ’bout time you showed up. Hwy was thinking the world had suddenly changed.
SU Guy…
You were on the Hudson recently? Where are you living?
Hi! My name is Carport Pirate. I live in So.Cal (my kids call
it Commiefornia)
I have been a lurker since 2005, my husband
found this blog. We thought we were losers, come to find out that there were many strawberry pickers in $800,00 houses, who were “lied to” or didn’t check for the smoke machine in the smoke and mirrors game.
I am originally from SW CO. my town is poor, in the wintertime people survive off canned food, and “accidently” shot deer. I have lived in SO. CAL for over 20 years, I am still amazed how gullible the sheeple are. I often wonder how they will survive
when the 20,30 year mortagages end. I am still wondering how
businesses still move into “ghost town” lots in shopping areas.
If you are familiar with Irvine I am talking about the corner of Jeffrey and Irvine Blvd where ground is still being broke for new
business/apt complexes. Who is still paying for this? People who went to the Enron School of Business?
I keep praying for a miracle; like hungry zoo animals(starving wolves,grizzly bears, and cute coyotes) escaping from the NYC zoo and eating all of Wallstreet and the Goldman Sachs Bank. Hey, a body can dream.
Carport Pirate comes from a comment from a neighbor, who was looking for an empty carport. We have some empty apts. She would go to the rental office and ask where she could move her 1970’s VW.
They would tell her which apts were empty. Her daughter called her a carport pirate because any empty spot was a good port in the storm.
Who is still paying for this? People who went to the Enron School of Business?
Hey get hip! Irvine = Donald Bren = Irvine Co’$. Inc. = “a planned community of people, landscape, architect, who look alike, think alike, and most importantly, act alike. “act alike” = perennial type behavior$ = pay the mortgage/trash/rent/water/lease/gas/electric/insurance/insurance/insurance/credit-card/credit-card/credit-card/credit-card, ON-TIME! without failure, EVER!, or else pay the associated late fee$ and be considered a loathsome outsider when stumbling upon a young repubican
conventionEvangelical Cult meeting!”But the short answer is: “It’s a Billionaire’$ Di$ney utopia$, managed by a Billion dollar$ rental$/lea$e/Corporation$ Inc.”
(ask me how I know…)
Palm Beach County sells $99.6 million in tax debt to investors
By Kimberly Miller Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 7:30 p.m. Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Palm Beach County’s coffers got a boost Wednesday as $99.6 million in delinquent taxes were recouped during the annual tax-certificate auction.
The online sale, which attracted 2,457 bidders from all over the world, gives investors a chance to earn between 5 percent and 18 percent interest by buying a person’s 2010 tax debt.
After the investor pays the late bill to the county, he gets to file a first lien on the property that takes precedent over most other loans, including mortgages.
When the homeowner pays off the bill to the investor, the amount includes what was originally due, plus interest. Certificates are awarded to the bidder willing to accept the lowest rate of interest, but the minimum interest that can be earned is 5 percent. If multiple low bids are made, a random lottery chooses a winner.
“We’re seeing more bidders because people have money and where else can you earn 5 percent?” said Craig McIntyre, vice president of Plantation-based Realauction.com, which runs the tax certificate sale for the county.
A winning bid Wednesday could mean a whopping payday for investors who bought certificates from the county’s largest tax debtors.
A Michigan investor won the $372,000 debt owed by developer Robert Matthews on his $15 million Palm Beach oceanfront estate.
Another large delinquency, $322,376, belongs to Palm Beacher Ruby Rinker for taxes on her $16 million South Ocean Boulevard home.
Hi, all! I’m done studying for now, till I get the results of my certification exam, which could take as long as six weeks. It was a stretch. However, now that I know how the sucka is structured, I’m perfectly happy to take it again.
Some anecdotal evidence about contractor jobs being wrung out of DC. One contractor - formerly Electric Boat - just canned two colleagues with whom I had worked briefly last year. Enterprise Architects. They are energetically reaching out. Another colleague left in disgust and went back to Texas in April. He is an actual Systems Engineer. He is now working for the Boy Scouts of America headquartered there. I met another woman on a camping trip whose contract was about to expire and had been given notice. Risk Management. I’m not about to say the great correction is coming. But I have been in the area now for almost five years, and this is the first I’ve heard of things like this up close and personal.
This Memorial Day weekend, I spent around the corner from the Marine Corps bases in NC, on Emerald Isle. Rented a house for the long weekend, and played insta-Mom. I must say, I like Emerald Isle. It’s on a barrier island, much like the Outer Banks, but many more trees. A beach cottage went for $125/night. It was for sale, and there were many ‘for sale’ in the area. HAS to have something to do with the drawdown of forces from Iran. Little old ladies and gents spent their morning walks collecting the one page spec sheets from those little plastic dispensers all the for-sale houses had out front.
The women who owned it - also a real-t-liar - spent a few minutes over the phone trying to shill it off on me. As a selling point - “I already lowered the price by $70K, I’m NOT lowering it any more!”. It was clear that this woman’s life consisted of balancing commissions against bills, much like the howmuchamonth crowd. She is 64 and lives in Cary, NC, reputedly a very nice town a couple hours away (?).
The house currently lists for $338. 2 BR, 2 BA, with a whopping kitchen/great room combination. The kitchen had a fifteen foot wide, 3-1/2 foot deep counter. It was big enough for me to arrange all of my food items on it (the ones that did not need refrigeration), and still have plenty of room for the kids and the buddy to sit at the other side and keep me company while cooking. It was maybe 1000 square feet, with only those three rooms (two BR and the whopping kitchen/greatroom). NOT big enough to retire in by any means, and hardly big enough for more than an extended weekend.
It is two and a half blocks centrally equidistant from the beach public access, and from a little shopping center on the main drag - which has remained quite a nice main drag, two lanes, not overbuilt. And - a big plus in my book - all of the houses were on treed lots. OK, they were LITTLE beach type trees, but quite dense enough to afford privacy whilst babysitting the grill or having an afternoon brewski in the blessed shade under the house, which was some 15 feet off the ground on sturdy telephone pole-type stilts. The house was built a lot sturdier than the similarly sized cr*pshacks in the Outer Banks that were going for a $500K song last time I was there over Christmas and New Year’s, 2008-2009. Methinks the bubble in Emerald Isle is deflating.
As for the price. It is too high, IMHO, because the bathrooms have what must be the original 1970’s fiberglass showers and sinks etc. I am no snob about things like this, but those suckas were DINGY. And for the purposes for which the lady is attempting to market it, it is not suitable. And if the bathrooms were that bad, you have to wonder about all the other deferred maintenance.
I found it through VRBO, a service I have used frequently, and with which I have generally been pleased. You’re dealing with the owners, and can knock off a lot of the cosmetic fees and surcharges that normally get tacked on when you’re dealing with rental agents. All gravy for them, of course.
I still like being in a military (in this case, three Marine Corps bases within spitting distance) environment. It’s frickin’ POLITE and SAFE. Last time I was in Lake Worth, FL, sitting on my cousin’s porch, we were surprised by the sight of two grown sons of Aztlan running down the sidewalk across the street, the one giving chase shooting intermittently at the one up front. None of that nonsense around military towns.
Man, I’m glad I’m not saddled with a vacation shack. It was nice to be there and all, but the drive down and back was a killer. 360 miles, two thirds on I-95 and one third on NC county roads. I-95 is not bad if you leave between rush hours on the day before people generally hit the road (I left on Thursday). But those county roads! On the way back, I nearly got out of the car and kissed the ground when I finally saw a road sign pointing to I-95, the road we all revile under ordinary circumstances.
And the woman was doing her best to shill it to me!
OK, that’s my realty report from this vacation. I didn’t have time to go get the paper, honestly, I was so busy cooking for the boys.
I will elaborate another time on my Marine son’s disturbing desire to run away from the Marines after this tour is up and go to ART SCHOOL for Chrissake. It is, by all accounts, an execrable command, and Dear Son is in a burnout job in Supply - running the consumable parts for two of the attack helicopters on the one hand, and trying not to look too surly while being asked to do artwork by people to whom he does not know how to say NO. The kid has nowhere to run and nowhere to hide.
For better or worse, I advised him to seek out COI help from a tough NCO. And to NOT do anything impulsive, since once you step off the carousel in a post industrial decline, you do not get back on. And then he will find himself burned out at 40, when it finally sinks in that the world can ignore his talent a lot longer than it takes him to starve, without a Plan B (which the Marines originally was, when he couldn’t find a job with a B.S. in Chemistry). I noted that if he thinks it is hard to find spousal material in the Marine Corps, it will be infinitely harder once he is 40, penniless, burnt out, having blown through his GI Bill and savings, and without prospects. I advised him that Art School is not for people like us, who need to take care of ourselves in the absence of family money, steadily employed spouses, or rich gay old patrons who will pay our rent whilst introducing us to the circle of well heeled collectors.
There is a limit to what I can do. He is an adult, 27, although impulsive. I wish he’d grow up and become a cautious and bloodless old fuddy duddy like me.
OK, I’m done. I am now going off to nurse my ulcers (j/k).
He is an adult, 27
And then he will find himself burned out at 40
There is a limit to what I can do.
Jane, by my school ‘rthritic , 13 years between what is, and what my become.
Also, 13 critical years of really figurin’ “life” out on one’s own terms. Not your mother’s, not your father’s, not your sweet-heart’s, your terms of “engagement”.
Life happens, things happen. All the best! (to you & yours)
Sincerely, Hwy50
Hwy, thank you for the grounding effect of those good and valid thoughts. You are quite right, of course, and I know it myself. We cannot live others’ lives for them.
The hardest lesson I ever learned is that over the long haul, none of us can beat the house. We may think we are exceptional. Given enough rolls of the dice, we will likely be proven wrong.
Then again, the rules that no longer even worked for me - after the Northeast started imploding - have been proven worthless.
BANGKOK (AP) — More evidence the U.S. economy has hit a soft patch sent Asian shares broadly lower Thursday.
Oil prices fell below $100 a barrel after a report showed an unexpected jump in U.S. crude supplies, suggesting demand is weakening. The dollar strengthened against the euro and the yen.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.6 percent to 9,568.87, as a rising yen battered the country’s powerhouse export sector. Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s top auto maker, plunged 3.1 percent, while Panasonic Corp. dropped 1.7 percent and Toshiba Corp. slid 1.9 percent.