Local Market Observations
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Statistics? “For houses selling for $400,000 and above, there is a 10 to 20 month supply, depending on the price. For houses in Chittenden County selling for more than $650,000, it’s 20 months. In an ironic twist, Maura Collins, policy and planning manager for the Vermont Housing Finance Authority, said she believes the tax credit programs the federal government offered potential homebuyers in 2008 and 2009 to spur sales are probably hurting the market now. ‘It really helped keep the market moving when it was really scared and dead, but what we’re seeing now is that the dead market is probably dead longer because people who would have bought this year or next probably already did it a year ago,’ Collins said.”
“‘I wouldn’t be surprised if there was very little movement this summer, even with low interest rates,’ Collins said. ‘They’re not going to lower interest rates any more. They won’t do a tax credit. They already did that and with the federal budget being what it is, they can’t do it again.’”
“Collins said that while she doesn’t see a double dip in Vermont, housing prices continue to fall in most of the state outside of Chittenden County. ‘In 2010, we found the statewide median price of a home recovered by 2 percent, but when you look at the broader picture, prices are still falling in most of the state,’ Collins said. ‘Volumes are still way down,’ Collins said. ‘Nothing is moving.’”
“What a ride this has been, eh? Magic Mountain’s Apocalypse has nothing on our housing market these past few months. By the numbers, April sales in Southwest Riverside County were down 15 percent from March and 14 percent under April 2010. In Temecula sales were down 14 percent from 2010 but up 17 percent over 2009. Murrieta was down 18 percent from 2010, just 7 percent under 2009. Lake Elsinore was down 19 percent from 2010 but even with their 2009 pace.”
“Foreclosure filings in California fell to lows not seen since the fall of 2008. Foreclosure sale cancellations rose 27 percent from March, primarily due to increased efforts by lenders to work with more short sales. Their success rate hasn’t improved much, but the four major banks have all indicated a renewed willingness to explore short sales.”
“Activity on the courthouse steps slowed from the prior month, with 17.2 percent fewer sales Back to Bank and a 15.8 percent drop in properties purchased by third parties, typically investors. The average Time to Foreclose continued to climb, increasing 3.3 percent to 312 days. That’s right, people are now staying in their homes an average of 312 days without making a payment. Of course that’s the average – tales of two years or longer are not uncommon, especially among people who have attempted a loan modification followed by an attempted short sale only to wind up in foreclosure.”
“It remains a seller’s market in Richmond, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. In its latest statistics released Thursday, the median selling prices of local houses, condos and townhomes surged again in May compared to April, with a single family Richmond home selling for the median price of $990,000. That’s up five per cent compared to April’s $940,500.”
“Long-time Richmond realtor Patsy Hui was somewhat surprised that Richmond house prices jumped again last month. While some realtors speculated that the earthquake and tsunami in Japan scared off the Chinese buyers who have largely fueled the Lower Mainland real estate market since November, Hui is more a believer in statistics. With more than 900 homes listed for sale, there’s simply too much supply in Richmond, Hui said.”
“Though the market isn’t as hot as it was in December, January, February and March, she’s still seeing some homes receive multiple offers and selling for above asking price.”
“Over the last couple of years they’ve become a staple, stretching over two or three pages of each Wednesday’s Gazette. They are notices of foreclosure or sheriff’s sales, and they’re the local result of a sub prime mortgage crisis and an 18-month national recession. Last year, one in five of the single-family homes sold in Janesville was the result of a foreclosure, according to figures from the South Central Wisconsin Multiple Listing Service.”
“In Janesville last year, bank-owned properties accounted for 132 of the 659 single-family homes sold. In Wisconsin, about 14 percent of the homes sold were bank-owned homes or properties in some stage of foreclosure.”
“Mike Eliason, Kitsap County Association of Realtors executive director, said the size of membership in the association usually reflects the marketplace, and for the past four years, numbers have dropped from 1,100 to around 600. There were 1,600 active residential listings in Kitsap County in April, down 13 percent from a year ago, according to numbers provided by Sandy Foote with Windermere Real Estate/West Sound. ‘It’s a good thing because there’s less homes to choose from. We have a limited number of buyers and the more houses we have, the less chances it will sell,’ she said.”
“On the downside, 23 percent of homes sold within the last six months were bank-owned (foreclosures) and another 8 percent were from short sales — two categories referred to as ‘distressed sales.’ ‘A lot more people are buying bank-owned houses. Typically they are better priced,’ Foote said.”
“Some uncertainty about the market is created by the so-called shadow market, properties banks are ’sitting on’ instead of foreclosing, and properties in the foreclosure process. Many Realtors believe, however, that the banks will be releasing those gradually so as to not cause even further price dips.”
“Fred Depee with John L. Scott in Port Orchard is seeing another shift in Kitsap County, reflected nationally as well. He said government regulations such as in Urban Growth Areas are skewing property values. ‘I don’t think most people realize real estate in Kitsap County is never going to be the same,’ he said. ‘I see it nationwide. It’s been obvious but subtle the last three to four years in Kitsap.’”
“He said the other side is that many young people today don’t think they’ll be able to afford a home, so they are losing the dream of homeownership. ‘If people lose the dream of homeownership it will dramatically change the landscape,’ he said.”
In an ironic twist, Maura Collins, policy and planning manager for the Vermont Housing Finance Authority, said she believes the tax credit programs the federal government offered potential homebuyers in 2008 and 2009 to spur sales are probably hurting the market now.
Duh. That was obvious in 2008 to anybody who thought about it for more than 1 second. Welcome to the future you were warned about but didn’t care.
‘Volumes are still way down,’ Collins said. ‘Nothing is moving.’”
Do you morons get it yet? I believe you don’t get it. I’ve talked to you Housing Crime Syndicate operators in the last two weeks. And a few deluded home-debtors too. You all still think because home-debtors have “x dollars in it”, they’re going to get x dollars out sometime in the future. You’re all deluding yourself. What you get out of it will be a fraction of x dollars. Don’t you dare tell me “you can’t build it for that”. I earn 120k/yr on a a 40 hr week in the construction biz. I know the construction biz, it’s my stock in trade. I know what it costs to build and it’s far lower than your current fantasy prices. Far far lower, even with a 13% profit margin.
Yes… very stupid people paid $650k to carpenters to install $90k worth of materials. That is your error in judgement, not a $650k house in VT.
“You all still think because home-debtors have “x dollars in it”, they’re going to get x dollars out sometime in the future.”
How did that work out for those that bought in the Florida property bubble in the mid 1920’s? Those values didn’t return until the most recent bubble. Anyone who bought in the 1920’s in Florida would have had to live to be over 100 and survive WWII to get those same dollars out. Single digits of such people, max?
How many that bought at the peak of the bubble in places like the Inland Empire, or Central Valley, or Las Vegas, or parts of Florida or Arizona will be in that same situation?
Thanks for that!
very stupid people paid $650k to carpenters to install $90k worth of materials.
The cost of house/land is far less than $650k but the cost to keep the riff raff from becoming your neighbor is a bit higher. ; ) School districts w/sky high taxes accomplish the same end.
This is not a local observation but more “west coast”…Nothing in the real estate market has gotten hit harder than bare land…And when I say bare land I mean develop-able land…I see some stuff fully entitled that is selling for 20 cents on the dollar off its peek…A few friends of mine & I, B.S.ing over a dice game are thinking about buying some of it as a group and put it in a trust for grand-kids…We figure that if 30 years go by, it could be a handsome nest egg for them…No way of knowing obviously but the entry cost are easily manageable…Carrying cost are minimal..Taxes, Insurance and weed control…
That makes me wonder which will be developed first. Will it be vacant, much cheaper land, or housing that was partially completed on land that was purchased at peak bubble prices? Does location become the equalizer if the partially completed properties go into default?
Will it be vacant, much cheaper land, or housing that was partially completed on land that was purchased at peak bubble prices ??
I would say the later….
Does location become the equalizer ??
Always does…The key being will the “location” be just as strong 20 or 30 years from now…So, you focus on things that seem mundane but are critically important like business generators that have a high probability of remaining long term…Two off the top of my head would be Universities or Hospitals…Also, infrastructure, such as water, power & highways…
Raw land or even land that’s been subdivided is interesting. For instance, I read that Kingman AZ had 40,000 approved lots in foreclosure. That will never be absorbed.
I was talking with a custom-home builder the other day. I can’t verify this, but he told me there were entire subdivisions in Phoenix that have been abandoned and blocked off with chain link and razor wire. He also said there were companies, builders I guess, that were buying into these and preparing to re-market them.
Redfin dot com shows 13,760 houses, condos and townhomes currently on the MLS. Of these, 9,540 are houses, 2,867 are condos and 1,356 are townhouses.
4,700 listings are at $500K and above.
Forgot to include: These are for all of San Diego County.
Meanwhile, in Montgomery County MD, in the areas farther out (45-1 hr commute to downtown), the ratio of single-family to condo-rowhome in the under $450K range is steadily rising. I’m sure some of it is because I’m looking farther out.
In the far out areas, the houses are starting to look like what I’m looking for: tract ranches on 0.25 - 0.5 acre. Nicer properties are listing for ~$275K or so, which I think is still too high. Autumn will be interesting.
“…but the four major banks have all indicated a renewed willingness to explore short sales.”
I find no mention of which banks he refers to anywhere in the article. At any rate, I certainly hope whatever banks are referenced here are not colluding to withhold supply from the market, as I believe that would constitute illegal price fixing under the Sherman Antitrust Act.
Distressed properties — both physical and phinancial, are starting to appear on r e a l t o r . c o m.
For example, here’s another home with the potential to be cutie-patootie. Only one photo, sold “as-is.” That’s a major red flag; I would guess that it would take upwards of $40-50K to make it nice, another $50K to make it perfect (for me.) Sounds like a lot, but when you start from $99K, it’s doable.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/7510-Brink-Rd_Gaithersburg_MD_20882_M69603-29207
99 for that place is definitely stiff for a 50 year shack. Personally I wouldn’t go that old. It’s 2×4 structure cannot be changed ever, electric has probably never been upgraded. You could get by with its100amp panel and BX cable throughout and replace receptacles, switches and maybe add a few recepts. Boiler or furnace must have been replaced at least once.
At a 50k price you could make it quite nice for another 80k so long as you can live with the 2×4 construction.
Did you see the obnoxious gargantuan faux castles across the road? Disgusting obnoxiousness. I’d love to buy one of those places and haul in job trailers, conex boxes and stage in the front yard. Maybe few pieces of old rusty construction iron and a few goats tied up to knock down the grass to dirt.
Unfortuneatly I only look online at the moment, and drive the area to get a feel for the roads. I haven’t starting looking at actual houses yet.
Thanks for the tip about the 2×4 construction. Unfortunately there isn’t much that is newer at any kind of good price.
If Banks think homes prices are going up after the 2008 bust they will hold inventory, which I think has been their plan, hold inventory let the FED push cash out into the economy.
If now these same banks see a double dip ahead I expect inventory to show up, short sales to be easier, more marketing gimicks, etc.
Saudia is pumping more crude they do not want another recession otherwise why would they increase supply ?
Of course I don’t know but many signs are pointing to a double dip…
If a person enters a contract willingly and understands what they have done, but it doesn’t work out the way they had hoped so they later claim that they did not understand what they had done or they later find out that the contract they entered into that they either did or did not understand was sold without the signatures to create a proper chain of title so the contract that they willingly entered into that they either did or did not understand was no longer valid, who’s fault its that?
OK let`s have a look.
There is a Pig bubble. The price of Pigs are skyrocketing! People are camping out over night and lined up and entering into bidding wars to buy Pigs. People are making $150k overnight flipping Pigs. They are refinancing existing Pigs. The median price of a Pig is over $400k in the U.S.
Joe 6pack and his wife Martha 6pack want in. They fly down to Miami, camp out and buy 3 Pigs at $400k each in 2005. They get 3 loans from Countrywide at 120% LTV and walk away with $60k in their pocket from the closing table and are the proud loaners of three $400k Pigs. Are they worried? No,they will just sell the Pigs for $500k each in a couple of years.
The Pig bubble bursts. The 6packs can`t sell their Pigs, Joe loses his lucrative job selling Pig feed and they can`t make the monthly Pig payment. The 6packs cry foul! They never should have loaned us the money to buy those Pigs! Why they can`t even prove who owns the loan for the Pigs!
Who’s fault its that?
Everything in my neighborhood is now under contract. We’ll see what closes.
Louisville home sales still in the basement
Hangover from expired tax credits persists
4:52 PM, Jun. 11, 2011
Written by Bertrand Teo
Louisville’s housing market remains jet-lagged nearly a year after the federal homebuyer tax credits caused sales to temporarily take flight.
Since expiration of the credits last summer, sales have declined from a year earlier for 10 consecutive months, according to statistics from the Greater Louisville Association of Realtors.
May potentially marks the 11th month of that trend. A blog report by Bob Sokoler, an agent with RE/MAX in Louisville, estimates 987 homes — new and existing — were sold by Realtors last month compared to 1,345 a year ago, a 27 percent drop.
The Realtors group is expected to release its official statistics sometime this week. Nationally, sales of existing homes were down nearly 15 percent in April from a year earlier. U.S. statistics for May are due June 20.
Greg Fleischaker, an independent Realtor in Louisville, said the current sales slump reflects buyers who accelerated their decisions last year to gain a slice of the tax incentive.
“We ran up the number of buyers,” Fleischaker said. “Now there are just too many sellers in the market.”
As of April 30, 9,232 homes were on the local market, a 33 percent increase from the same time last year, according to the Realtors group.
“Now the market is working itself out and getting back to equilibrium,” Fleischaker said.
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Home sales, prices sink in May
By Gita Sitaramiah
Updated: 06/10/2011 11:53:29 PM CDT
Closed home sales declined 17 percent in May compared with May 2010, and the Twin Cities median home price dived to $152,950.
That’s according to the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors, which reported that the median home price in the 13-county metro dropped 13 percent compared with a year ago. Buyers continue to shop for bargains in the distressed housing market.
Distressed properties made up 30 percent of all new listings - the lowest level since April 2010. The fact that comparatively more homes in financial distress are selling than are entering the market is considered a positive sign.
“Our housing market continues to show subtle yet sure signs of healing despite concerns over the national debt ceiling, slow job growth and food and energy prices eating into personal budgets,” said Cari Linn, president-elect of the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors, in a news release.
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Area’s existing home sales down 23.4% in May
By Paul Gores of the Journal Sentinel
June 10, 2011
The Milwaukee area’s hobbled housing market continued to lug along in May, waiting for a catalyst to help it pick up the pace.
A report by Metro MLS Inc. released Friday showed sales of existing homes in the Milwaukee area dropped 23.4% in May compared with the same month last year.
At the same time, permits to construct new homes in the four-county metro area fell about 30% in May compared with May 2010, according to MTD Marketing Services of Wisconsin Inc., of Oshkosh.
Although data indicates a slow economic recovery is under way, the deck still is stacked against housing, which normally is the first sector to bounce back after a recession. The problems are national and local: huge inventories of homes for sale, high unemployment and shaky consumer confidence.
Banks still own more than 800,000 foreclosed properties in the U.S., and builders have almost 200,000 units of unsold inventory, said economist Bruce Bittles, the chief market strategist for Milwaukee’s Robert W. Baird & Co.
Meanwhile, consumer incomes are languishing.
“Job growth in this cycle has been subpar with other recoveries,” Bittles said. “And I think, importantly, there has been no wage growth in this cycle, particularly the last six to nine months. So that has a negative impact on not only the consumers’ ability to buy a home, but also their psychology.”
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KFMB-TV
CBS 8 - San Diego, California
Single-family home sales in San Diego down 13.8 percent from last year
Posted: Jun 08, 2011 3:57 PM PDT Updated: Jun 08, 2011 3:57 PM PDT
SAN DIEGO (CNS) - The number of houses and condominiums sold in May in San Diego County dropped sharply compared to the same month last year, and median prices also tumbled, the San Diego Association of Realtors announced Wednesday.
The number of single-family homes sold in May 2011 was down 13.8 percent from May 2010, according to SDAR statistics. Condo sales dropped 19.5 percent in the same period.
The median price of a detached home last month was $380,000, compared to $391,000 in May 2010, according to the organization. For condos, the median price was $214,500, down from $237,000 one year earlier.
Year-to-date sales trends also showed a decline. Through last month, the 2011 sales total was 8,125 single-family homes and 4,351 condos. Through May 2010, the number of detached homes sold was 8,574, while 4,866 condos were sold.
According to a ZIP code breakdown provided by the association, large declines in year-to-date sales of houses compared to last year have taken place in the Eastlake section of Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, Lemon Grove, northern El Cajon, Encinitas, northern Escondido, northeastern Oceanside and northern San Marcos.
Within the city of San Diego, major declines were seen in College Grove, East San Diego, Otay Mesa, Pacific Beach, Paradise Hills, Rancho Bernardo, Scripps Ranch and Serra Mesa.
Can you imagine if downpayment requirements were increased on U.S. home purchases over, say, $729,750?
Hong Kong Stocks Fall for Eighth Day as Property Shares Retreat
By Lynn Thomasson - Jun 12, 2011 7:00 PM PT
Hong Kong’s stocks fell, sending the Hang Seng Index (HSI) to an eighth day of losses, on speculation the housing market may cool after the government raised the minimum downpayment for home buyers.
Sino Land Company Ltd. and New World Development Co. declined more than 1.5 percent after the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said buyers of homes costing more than HK$6 million ($770,000) will have to increase up-front payments.
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