Bits Bucket for June 14, 2011
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Praying for a Financial Solution
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5B1-oirxE8
Always sickening to see wishes regarding financial affairs mixed with Jesus. Humanity at its worst if you ask me.
Respectfully beg to differ. People look to religion for personal benefit. Material benefits are in fact personal benefit. Religion would have few adherents if it only promised asceticism and self denial, for a reward after death. And even in that second scenario, there still is a personal reward. Some just want it now, instead of later. If God loves ‘em, he should want the best for them, right?
ed. note: agnostic.
You clearly were never taught Baltimore Cathichism. : )
Religion would have few adherents if it only promised asceticism and self denial, for a reward after death.
The late George Carlin on religion. http://www.blinkx.com/watch-video/george-carlin-religion/MzTaOgHiZjgQpxom4e03Ww
+1
You mean “Jeebuz”
Roubini Says ‘Perfect Storm’ May Threaten Global Economy
(Bloomberg)
A “perfect storm” of fiscal woe in the U.S., a slowdown in China, European debt restructuring and stagnation in Japan may converge on the global economy, New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said.
There’s a one-in-three chance the factors will combine to stunt growth from 2013, Roubini said in a June 11 interview in Singapore. Other possible outcomes are “anemic but OK” global growth or an “optimistic” scenario in which the expansion improves.
“There are already elements of fragility,” he said. “Everybody’s kicking the can down the road of too much public and private debt. The can is becoming heavier and heavier, and bigger on debt, and all these problems may come to a head by 2013 at the latest.”
Elevated U.S. unemployment, a surge in oil and food prices, rising interest rates in Asia and trade disruption from Japan’s record earthquake threaten to sap the world economy. Stocks worldwide have lost more than $3.3 trillion since the beginning of May, and Roubini said financial markets by the middle of next year could start worrying about a convergence of risks in 2013.
The MSCI AC World Index has tumbled 4.9 percent this month on concern recent data, including an increase in the U.S. unemployment rate to 9.1 percent in May, signal the global economy is losing steam. U.S. Treasuries rose last week, pushing two-year note yields down for a ninth week in the longest stretch of decreases since February 2008, on bets the Federal Reserve will maintain monetary stimulus.
It’s not a perfect storm. It’s a forseeable consequence.
A nuclear accident cause by a Tsunami caused by an earthquake was foreseable? In any case the earthquake wasn’t a consequence of anything any human has done. Did you even read the article?
A “perfect storm” of fiscal woe in the U.S., a slowdown in China, European debt restructuring and stagnation in Japan may converge on the global economy, New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said.
Jojo is a knucklehead.
“A “perfect storm”, (consisting of) of fiscal woe in the U.S., a slowdown in China, European debt restructuring and stagnation in Japan may converge on the global economy,
The “perfect storm” is converging on the GLOBAL economy.
Its better to be thought a fool, Big V, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.
Yes, Jojo, it was forseeable that this chain of global events would converge on the global economy.
It is better to open your mouth and engage in meaningful discourse than to remain a fool forever.
“A nuclear accident cause by a Tsunami caused by an earthquake was foreseable?”
Not to pick on you, JoJo, but yes, it was. The Japanese have lived on on their islands for hundreds of years and have records dating back as well.
The nuke plant design was 40 years old, due to be decommissioned in the next few years (how’s that for irony?) and was built to withstand less than known possible catastrophe on a gamble that “the big one” wouldn’t happen until after the plant had been decommissioned.
They lost that bet.
Sound familiar?
Eco….Not a few years but a few months…the license would expire i think the end on January and they would have had to go into shut down mode so by the time the earthquake hit it would have been maybe 30% of max…and it would have be feasible to cool it down fast, and avoid the meltdown…..irony it is!
It should have been. It’s not like Japan hasn’t seen earthquakes and tsunamis before. Big ones.
And everyone should know diesel generators don’t work worth a damn when flooded by seawater.
If nuc operators were smart, they would be running new failure scenarios on their equipment as we speak, to make sure it doesn’t happen again.
The reality is, nobody wants to spend money on backups/safeties, so any reviews being done will be to “prove” that the same thing can’t happen here.
Just ask Sony how that works!
Yes the earthquake and tsunami were foreseeable events (and because of that the reactor should have been better protected). But this disaster striking at the same time as the US financial system is about to collapse and the Euro is on the point of breaking up, and the Chinese economy is slowing sharply, all four events happening together is what comprises the “perfect storm”, and all four happening together is unlucky to say the least.
Unlucky to be sure. But.. there is a mathematical model for this. It’s called “clustering.”
It basically states that events (among other things) tend to happen in groups. Especially bad events.
It’s been used by insurance companies for decades and is one the cornerstones of chaos theory.
“There’s a one-in-three chance the factors will combine to stunt growth from 2013″
this doesn’t sound like a crash or something remotely close.
And since it was published it must be true.
BofA May Post Added $27 Billion in Housing Losses, Sanford Bernstein Says ~ Bloomberg - Jun 13, 2011
Bank of America Corp. (BAC), the largest U.S. lender, may face a further $27 billion of housing-related losses between now and 2013 amid increasing regulation as the economic recovery slows, analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein said.
The losses would be in addition to the $46 billion the Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender has booked so far, analysts led by John E. McDonald wrote in a note today.
“The process of addressing legacy mortgage issues will be long and arduous,” the analysts said. “Recent declines in home prices and an uptick in employment trends create an upward bias to our loss estimates” for the lender. Bernstein has an “outperform” recommendation on the stock.
Bank of America Chief Executive Officer Brian T. Moynihan, 51, said on June 1 he expects future U.S. home-price declines will be “incremental,” a day after reports of the biggest quarterly drop in values in two years. Home prices in 20 U.S. cities fell 5.1 percent in the first quarter, the largest decline since the first quarter of 2009, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index.
Oh, the losses are because of increasing regulation? Really? Wait, no, “amid”. That’s called doublespeak, isn’t it?
Yup, buying Countrywide was a real smart idea, wasn’t it?
So the question is? Did the Fed & Treasury strongly suggest that BofA buy countrywide - or was this their own foolish idea.
The former sucks - and they really did not have a choice in the middle of the financial crisis. The later is pure stupidity.
Increasing regulations now? Or failure to follow regulations and meet contract requirements during the bubble? Especially Note issues that they brought within house when they acquired Countrywide.
Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.
Southern California Home Prices Decline 8.2% as Employment Remains Weak ~Bloomberg - Jun 13, 2011 1:46 PM ET
Southern California home prices fell 8.2 percent last month as unemployment remained high and mortgages were hard to obtain, DataQuick said.
The median paid in the six-county region was $280,000, down from $305,000 a year earlier and unchanged from April, the San Diego-based data seller said today in a statement. Sales fell 17 percent from May 2010 to a total of 18,394 new and resale houses and condominiums, the 11th straight year-over-year decline.
“Some of the fundamental drivers of housing demand have yet to strengthen enough to lift sales to even average levels,” John Walsh, DataQuick’s president, said in the statement. “Weak job growth, tight credit and hesitancy among potential buyers and sellers” are combining to restrain the market, he said.
California’s jobless rate was 11.9 percent in April, higher than the 9 percent nationwide, the state’s Employment Development Department reported May 20. The drop in Southern California home prices last month was the steepest since September 2009, DataQuick said today. The number of new homes sold was the lowest in company records dating back to 1988.
The Southern California region encompasses Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties.
It’s just a flesh wound…
“The median paid in the six-county region was $280,000, down from $305,000 a year earlier and unchanged from April, the San Diego-based data seller said today in a statement. Sales fell 17 percent from May 2010 to a total of 18,394 new and resale houses and condominiums, the 11th straight year-over-year decline.”
So, what was the drop from the peak in 2005/6/7? There must be a lot of folks that are getting very frustrated even as they are paying their mortgage. Do they ever give up.
$280,000 with 12% unemployment? Unbelievable.
Median was a bad measure then (during bubble), it’s a bad measure now.
In Northern CA, the median prices falling has more to do with the mix and quality of homes than massive continued price declines.
I’m not saying that prices (by and large) aren’t soft, but an 8% fall in the last year is not reflective of reality (in a Case-Shiller-type way).
The median target has NOTHING to do with “quality”. In fact, the median is grinding lower ever so slowly as the quality of that median is increasing by the day.
If you got a McCastle, price it at todays median or you’ll lock in your losses for decades to come.
That’s just silly.
Compare like homes with like homes, ignore the median.
If the median home is 1,500 square feet and 35 years old, and the home you are pricing is 2,500 square feet and brand new, you would be an idiot to price it at the median.
If the population of homes that are being sold are increasingly older, in greater disrepair, etc., then increasingly the median is going to reflect a different pool of assets, and not be comparable over time.
The good foreclosures are selling first, or selling via short sale (in better school districts, newer, better quality, etc., etc., etc.). Over time, what is left will be worse and worse, all else equal, driving down the median.
Wrong.
The median isn’t founded on realtor lies and a carpenters lame gingerbread anymore.What few executed sales occur are founded on what a bank is willing to lend. And they’re not fond of lending in excess of $220k. I don’t care if the walls are skim coated with crushed bone china with goldleaf.
Meet the median or lock your losses in forever. It’s your funeral.
The median is not the best measure of a market unless quality, size, age, etc are all held constant. It isn’t a useless measure, but claiming anything priced above the median will never sell is silly. And banks lend in excess of $220k every day all day. In excess of $417k is a different story.
Banks lend in excess of $417k as well. You just need to adhere to more traditional underwriting (20% down, good income, etc.), and accept 25-50bps higher rate. And of course, the home has to appraise (meaning you can’t be overpaying).
Check out Google Advisors. A new tool that helps seek out CD rates, mortgage rates, etc.
You can easily punch in some variables to see what lenders are in the market for jumbo loans. I looked at two major banks, both of which were willing to lend me well over $417k at very attractive rates (and one of which I had a relationship with). I ultimately locked 30-year fixed at 5.15%. At that time, agency debt might have been 4.75%-4.85%.
Well there you go. Easy money abounds. Things really aren’t as tight as people like to make it sound. You can still get an FHA loans with 3.5% down and mediocre credit all day long. There are problems with the real estate market, but a lack of available credit isn’t one of them.
Yep. Easy money is out there. And guess what….. today’s grossly inflated sale is tomorrows default.
There isn’t a house on the planet worth $417k.
12% unemployment in California.
much higher as all the self employed contractors, realtors, small shop owners are not counted.
Exactly.
Much, much higher. Ballpark figures I’ve seen say over 20%.
That’s Great Depression territory.
and 8% housing vacancy at of Census 2010.
Or would you prefer to own housing in Arizona, where the unemployment rate is 8.9%, but housing vacancy was 16% as of Census 2010?
Or Florida, where unemployment is 10.4%, but housing vacancy was 17.5% at Census 2010?
CA is better poised for significant recovery based on supply constraints, despite current high unemployment.
Good for Obama’s jobs council, good for America? ~ Washington Post
Some of the powerful executives who advised President Obama on Monday about how to solve the unemployment problem in the United States are themselves focused overseas for growth.
Five of the biggest companies on Obama’s jobs council, General Electric, Citigroup, Intel, Procter & Gamble and DuPont, rely on foreign revenues for a majority of their sales — a shift that’s occurred just in the past several years for most of these firms. As other countries’ economies recover more quickly, these corporations have taken advantage. Earnings at GE were up 77 percent in the latest quarter. Intel is enjoying record profits.
A central assumption in Obama’s economic plan is that private-sector growth will translate into more jobs in this country.
But that strategy could be less potent as decades of globalization have loosened the connection between the health of large U.S. firms and the economy, analysts say.
As a whole, U.S. multinational firms reduced their workforce in this country by 2.9 million between 1999 and 2009, according to recent data from the Commerce Department. Meanwhile, they added 2.4 million workers overseas.
Corporate profits have largely returned to their levels from before the financial crisis, and executive pay has come roaring back. But income for most workers has been stagnant and the unemployment rate remains stubbornly high at 9.1%.
“The bottom line is, U.S. companies can do very well,” said Clyde Prestowitz, president of the Economic Strategy Institute and an adviser to the Commerce Department during the Reagan administration. “That doesn’t mean the U.S. economy is doing well.”
A central assumption in Obama’s economic plan is that private-sector growth will translate into more jobs in this country.
That’s the way it’s traditionally worked, but …
As a whole, U.S. multinational firms reduced their workforce in this country by 2.9 million between 1999 and 2009, according to recent data from the Commerce Department. Meanwhile, they added 2.4 million workers overseas.
5 million quality jobs went ‘poof’ while Corprate America earned record profits. And then there is the multiplication factor.
Conclusion:
No matter how profitable Corporate America is, it won’t be hiring at home. We need to look elsewhere to create those jobs, like on Main St. and other smaller firms. Corporate America’s layoff machine won’t be stopping anytime soon.
Anecdote: I know a guy who runs an oil and gas well clean up biz, where he cleans up around shutdown wells. He is backlogged with business but can’t expand because he can’t get credit for capital purchases and cash flow (he doesn’t get paid until the job is complete and it can take a few months), even though he has purchase orders in hand. If he could expand he would hire, and these would be non-menial jobs.
I know that the 60 employee firm where I work has to be super careful with cashflow for the same reason: it’s very hard to get credit at the bank.
Exactly.
Contrary to EVERYTHING you hear on MSM, this country is doing its damned best to screw small business owners and destroy jobs for average people.
Right. Why is Obama even asking GE or AmEx about anything? Auto and banking = Bailed-Out Losers. The solution from GE and AmEX is “less red tape for small companies”. WTF? How about “less offshoring of US jobs”? THAT IS THE PROBLEM. Red tape for small companies is a minute issue.
Small companies will go nowhere if the entire economy continues to be undermined by a regular bleeding of our productive capacity to the lowest bidder.
How about “less offshoring of US jobs”?
People say it can’t be done. BS. Brazil charges very high import duties on products. Brazil practices protectionism. Much more than USA’s, Brazil’s idea of globalization is “hey dudes, bring your globalized companies HERE”.
Caterpiller is expanding factories in Brazil to sell to the Brazilian market.
Apple is opening factories in November to make Apple products for the Brazilian market. There are many more examples.
Even though Brazil does not have globally considered cheap labor, there has been a jobs boom in Brazil including manufacturing. Why?
Because Brazil charges very high import duties on products. Brazil practices protectionism. Much more than USA’s, Brazil’s idea of globalization is “hey dudes, if you want to sell to us, bring your globalized companies HERE”.
Protectionism?
Why would you want to protect yourself? It’s a bad thing according to supply siders. Never protect yourself because that is protectionism.
It works for Brazil, China, India, etc. but not US.
The law of the land is, if you are the rich you have to pitch in more. Let’s call it a global progressive tax system…..
Protectionism worked just great for us before we stopped doing it.
Don’t call them “tariffs”.
Call them “user fees”
Here’s the difference: the globalists have milked this host dry. It’s time to move on to an economy that has something left to take.
Even though Brazil does not have globally considered cheap labor, there has been a jobs boom in Brazil including manufacturing. Why?
No worries, we will just tweet our way to prosperity. It wouldn’t surprise me if the liars-in-charge claimed that use of groupon translated to no inflation.
We don’t need gas or food, we can all just eat I-pads.
A gutted industrial base is a national security issue. Bring our jobs HOME you “free-market uber alles” traitors.
Intelligence Community Fears U.S. Manufacturing Decline
http://blogs.forbes.com/beltway/2011/02/14/intelligence-community-fears-u-s-manufacturing-decline/
…..China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. Over the last ten years, China has mounted the biggest challenge to the U.S. manufacturing sector ever seen, threatening producers of steel, chemicals, glass, paper, drugs and any number of other items with prices they cannot match. Not coincidentally, the United States has lost an average of 50,000 manufacturing jobs every month during the same period….
….That trend has now progressed to a point where the U.S. intelligence community has become concerned. Richard McCormack reported in Manufacturing & Technology News on February 3 that the Director of National Intelligence has initiated preparation of a National Intelligence Estimate to assess the security implications of waning manufacturing activity in America.
Translated:
The military needs manufacturing workers to build a tax base to pay for the military.
G, yathink?
They need a manufacturing base to manufacture military equipment.
This is what people don’t understand. A lot of our high-tech stuff piggy backs off low tech industries. Lowly items like screws and bolts get real expensive if the only purchasers are low volume industries like aviation.
Unless you plan on buying all your stuff from the Chinese.
Right. In times of war, we can’t count on buying military equipment from other countries. We need to be ready to quickly and significantly ramp up our own production in the event we go to war with a country that supplies a lot of our goods.
We have to start importing less and exporting more. If we don’t fix our trade deficit, not much else really matters in the long run.
+1 “Tweet our way to prosperity”!! i like that!
Realtors Are Liars
Rail-tours are like ours.
Rat Tail Files.
Rail-tours are like hours.
Apart from
There’s never been a better time to buy.
Property always goes up in the long run.
They’re not making any more land.
Buy now or you’ll get priced out forever.
It’s best to guy the biggest house you can, for the tax deduction.
Everybody want’s to live here.
and
The best time to buy is when interest rates are low.
What actual lies do realtors tell?
“What other lies do realtors tell”
Yes, Mrs. Carrie, those trees over there are part of this home’s property. (My personal story-my neighbor was quick to show me stakes proving the trees were in fact on his property meaning the property line was about 20 feet closer to my house than I was lead to believe)
This property is 2500 sq feet (Tax records say less)
This lot is 3/4 of an acre (Tax records say less)
You can repair that for x dollars. (Real price will be 3x)
This home is not in the flood zone (requiring higher insurance costs. Better check yourself.)
This home is not an REO (despite no food in the kitchen and obviously staged furniture).
Yes this house is in that school district you desire. (Check w/school yourself)
The taxes on this home are nice and low (because the current owner has been there for 30 years, hasn’t been reassessed recently and he’s got vet and senior exemptions on his taxes. You being a youngin who never went to war will be paying a higher rate.)
I could go on all day.
Real Tartars are slier
Realtors Take Tours.
~Clipped from King World News~
With continued volatility in gold and silver, today King World News interviewed John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of the now $9 billion strong Sprott Asset Management. When asked about the US debt situation Embry replied, “They’ve got this market in a lockdown because they don’t have any answers to anything. So they’re just kicking the can down the road, but we’re getting close to when the can is going to hit the wall, then we’re going to have some action and I suspect that’s going to happen in the next two months.
I think that people are going to realize that the US doesn’t have any solutions to this issue about debt limits and QE2’s and QE3’s and QE6’s and that they’ve basically reached the point where they can’t put it off any longer. I think people will realize when they up the debt limit by two and a half trillion or so to get them through the election, how totally hopeless this situation is. It’s not one iota different than Greece.”
When asked how the US debt will be resolved Embry stated, “It will either be inflated or defaulted, it will not be paid back under any circumstance. If I were emperor I would take the hit now and I would go through the deflation and destroy the debt and get rid of it so we could start over, the sooner the better. They will not do that because nobody wants to be in charge when the shit hits the fan. So consequently they will just kick the can down the road.
They will print and I agree with Jim Sinclair, I believe QE to infinity and this will lead to hyperinflation, and God knows what happens then. What happens every time I suppose, the whole system melts down. That is the route they will opt for given the alternative being a hard depression, a deflationary depression.
The two things you can be assured of: One is that the standard of living for the average person will be crushed, and two there will be some form of civil unrest because people confronted with this reality are going to become extraordinarily unhappy.”
The comparison to Greece really does not hold up. Greece suffered a form of deflation when it went on the Euro, and overcompensated. Now it faces a default and can not inflate it’s way out, even a little. While hyperinflation is catastrophic, even a fairly bad bout of inflation is far better than the deflationary vise that is squeezing Greece.
Add to this the problem of a bloated public sector that was an important part of the solution to a far worse problem (a civil war), you really have a very distinct and non-comparable situation in Greece and the US.
The dude in the article is a person who sells gold. Why is anyone asking him? He is not a reliable source.
Because his advice is against his own interest. BTW, I think the PPT has migrated to the oil pits. While WTI use to be more expensive than Brent it is now more than $20 a barrel cheaper. I am willing to buy that maybe five dollars of that difference is due to higher local production and the landlocked nature of Cushing, OK. I think that at least some and probably the other $15 is due to manipulation. How long do people really think that the U.S. price is going to be lower than the world price? After all the people on this board that are against U.S. drilling say U.S. production cannot affect the price at the pump. P.S. I do realize that the further you get from Cushing that the less of a difference is occurring but something is suppressing U.S. oil prices and I have to believe that the U.S. government is involved but in the end it is just going to result in even higher oil prices.
If hyper-inflation is just around the corner, then should not we be bidding up the price of hard assets like real estate?
No. Nobody needs houses anymore. Just iPads. We should be hoarding gizmos.
I am hording refrigerator boxes and waxing them.
TMI
Ohh, value added, AVOCADO. Brilliant!
You could put granite countertop samples in them that the local home improvement store give out and raise the prices even further.
You first.
When I lived in Mexico during the 70’s and late 80’s, when the Peso went from 12.5 to a dollar to over 3000 pesos to a dollar there was some housinge inflation but it didn’t quite keep pace. It also trailed timewise as I recall that house prices didn’t rise for a couple of years after the really hard peso devaluations hit.
People back then would build onto the houses they already owned. No one else could come up with the money to buy a house if they didn’t already have one.
We’re not going to get where this is headed for a long time. We all underestimate the inertia involved. Look at the housing crash in progress, it is glacial. We know that the corrections that have taken place are only a fraction of the underlying distortion of the mania. It is likely not to finish in a pop, rather the slowmotion turning that we are already experiencing. Not to say a pop isn’t possible, or even localized explosions aren’t likely, but in general a decades long grind is most likely.
Things that can be used as collateral for bank loans are steadily falling in price. Things that get consumed in day to day life are rising in price. Personal income is eroding. We are simply headed for a lower standard of living, one which is less and less based on loans, entitlements and specualtion.
My point is that we are best served as individuals with a long term strategy of minimalist lifestyle, freedom from debt, a bit of savings to insulate against occasional surprises, focus on that slight edge in one’s profession, and lots of popcorn. Not just my personal philosophy, but what seems to be cemented now as the long term trend.
10-4
Good stuff Blue. Thank you.
“My point is that we are best served as individuals with a long term strategy of [...] ”
Brilliant.
Things that can be used as collateral for bank loans are steadily falling in price. DING DING DING. Because those are the things that became overpriced in the bubble. Admittedly, the stock market has experience another, banking bailout funded bubble in the last year or so, although that seems to be petering out at the moment.
Good. There are still plenty of people who need a dose of reality and hitting their portfolios is where it hurts.
Some off us don’t much “long-term” left.
Just curious- how old are you, eco?
The Fed and other central banks slowed the global credit unwind to the glacial pace w/its alphabet soup of programs. The unwind will accelerate when politicians standing by the Fed again are in need of populist support for more programs. Upon gaining that support, the new influx of digitally created cash will again slow down the pace of the unwind until the point where its influence wanes again.
As I understand it, any of the foreign players could also accelerate the process, Europe, China, Japan with an unexpected (but really expected) change of status. So far they’re holding pat but I sometimes get the feeling investors are holding their breath.
The Greek Government has hired Foreign Workers to Clean out the Underground Tunnel Leading from the Parliament to the Sea Port of Piraeus in Preparation for an Evacuation of all MPs
June 13, 2011 ~ coveringdelta.wordpress.com
I just became aware of this report from Kontra channel here in Greece. Apparently, a tunnel that leads from Lykavitos to the Greek parliament, and from there to the sea port of Piraeus, is being cleaned out by foreign workers in preparation for the possible evacuation of Greek MP’s in the event of a storming of parliament ahead of wednesday’s vote on the new memorandum.
The situation here is getting completely out of control. I really don’t know how much longer the people will be willing to wait this thing out. The mood here in Athens is one of intense disillusionment with a government that seems increasingly detached from its own people.
“The mood here in __________ is one of intense disillusionment with a government that seems increasingly detached from its own people.”
The public relations arm of the global bankers (many governments) is slipping in their work.
Beat me to it.
Same story all over smalltown USA:
http://www.news-journalonline.com/business/real-estate/2011/06/12/housing-crash-diminishes-couples-financial-options.html
Lack of good jobs diminshes finiancial options.
And the depth of the debt exacerbates the problem.
Lack of good jobs diminishes one’s cash flow which diminishes financial options.
It’s not just the job, it’s the cash flow offered by the job.
Which leads to lack of shoes.
And since the shoes are made Somewhere Else then this Somewhere Else place gets to take the hit.
Take a good look at how China is doing since the U.S.’s massive borrow-and-spend binge has ended. They too thought the party would go on forever and hence they built up their infrastructure accordingly.
Ghose cities, anyone?
At least they preserved their farmland, and their clean life giving rivers, so that they could fall back on their 8,000+ year old sustainable lifestyle.
At least they preserved their farmland, and their clean life giving rivers, so that they could fall back on their 8,000+ year old sustainable lifestyle.
As FPSS would say, BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
sarcasm?
unfortunately.
Peter Navarro -Econ Guru/Professor at the University of Calif.-Irvine, says you can tell the seasonal fashion/home colors by Pantone (huge color marketing firm to create demand) by just looking at China’s rivers. He’s been there and is very well versed on everything China.
Lack of jobs powers the jobless recovery.
The PTB say we don’t need consumers in 70% consumer driven economy.
Well I be damned. I was going post the Citi Group Plutonomy Report links, but it’s been “scrubbed” (removed) by their lawyers.
Gee I wonder why?
Looks like I’m not the only one who noticed:
http://rwer.wordpress.com/2010/11/11/citigroup-attempts-to-disappear-its-plutonomy-report-2/
This is my 4th jobless recovery.
A report from Miller McCune.com:
From reality television to dumb-and-dumber films, contemporary entertainment often amounts to watching stupid people do stupid things. New research suggests such seemingly innocuous diversions should have their own rating: LYI.
As in: Watching this may Lower Your Intelligence.
A study from Austria published in the journal Media Psychology found students performed less well on a general-knowledge test if they had just read a short screenplay about an idiotic thug. This suggests stupidity may indeed be contagious - particularly if it is presented in narrative form.
“Narratives tend to make people ‘walk in someone else’s shoes,’” Appel notes. Since that experience can be temporarily transformative, you might want to make sure the characters you follow have IQs higher than their shoe size.
~ Clipped from TDR
“This suggests stupidity may indeed be contagious …”
Lol, do you mean people grouped in herds tend to get swept up by groupthink and end up doing incredibly stupid things?
What an astonishing finding!
Uh, does anybody have a clue as to why there are so many billions of dollars spent every year by advertisers on some really stupid commercials? Any clue whatsoever?
Not only is stupidity contagious, it has a gravitational force.
Does this mean it could spread outside of DC?
Thank goodness for the Appalachians.
Been to CA lately?
Minnesota shutdown looming
cnnmoney Tuesday June 14, 2011
Time is running out for Minnesota’s parks, highway rest stops and public universities, not to mention 36,000 state employees.
If Gov. Mark Dayton and lawmakers don’t agree on a budget by June 30, the state government is expected to shut down. The state moved one step closer to this outcome on Friday by sending layoff notices to much of the state workforce.
Should officials not resolve their differences in time, state parks and highway stops could be shuttered over the busy Fourth of July weekend. Forget about renewing a driver’s license or taking classes at state colleges. Nonprofit agencies may have to suspend their social services if their state funding disappears.
As for the state workers, they’ll have to wait to see who is deemed critical. The rest could lose their pay, and some their health benefits. The unions have already launched a campaign pressuring state officials to pass a budget.
At issue is whether to close a $3.6 billion budget shortfall by increasing taxes or making spending cuts. The decision must be made before the fiscal year ends on June 30.
The governor, a Democrat who ran on a platform of taxing the rich, wants to hike the levy on the wealthiest 1.9% of Minnesotans. This would close half the deficit, leaving the rest to be eliminated through spending cuts.
The Age of Borrowing coming to a close.
“wants to hike the levy on the wealthiest 1.9% of Minnesotans. This would close half the deficit, leaving the rest to be eliminated through spending cuts.”
Sounds reasonable to me. Everybody gives a little, including (for a change) those with the most to give. So it’ll be a no-go for the Plutocrat party.
How much are the retired giving up? How much will public services decline as a result of the 1.9% decrease in spending? By less than 1.9%? By more than 1.9%?
“How much are the retired giving up?”
The largest voting cohort.
Deficit-financed state government operations, meet wall (aka macroeconomic budget constraint).
Maybe they shouldn’t have all those tax breaks to business… who didn’t create jobs after all.
Google “Minnesota tax breaks for business”
Roll over Enthoven and tell J. Arrow the news.
The Sickness Beneath the Slump
By ROBERT J. SHILLER
Published: June 11, 2011
THE origins of the current economic crisis can be traced to a particular kind of social epidemic: a speculative bubble that generated pervasive optimism and complacency. That epidemic has run its course. But we are now living with the malaise it caused.
A half-century ago, there was a lively discussion among economists about the dynamics of price expectations. For example, Alain C. Enthoven, then of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Kenneth J. Arrow of Stanford wrote in 1956 that expectations that extrapolate past price increases can produce economic instability. But that thinking was largely cast aside in the 1960s, when my profession embraced the theory that efficient markets formed by people holding rational expectations could explain virtually all economic activity.
As a result, economists in recent decades have not developed expectations theory much further. That needs to be corrected in coming years. In the meantime, this failing helps explain why the current crisis was generally unpredicted, and why its future course is so poorly understood.
Robert J. Shiller is professor of economics and finance at Yale and co-founder and chief economist of MacroMarkets.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/12/business/economy/12view.html - -
It’s simple Robert. This isn’t your daddy’s economy. It’s your granddaddy’s. You’ll get it.
No.
Deregulation
Offshoring jobs
Huge tax breaks for corporations
Gutting of basic individual rights
Corporations having more rights than individuals
These are the causes. Everything else is a kabuki theater con job.
OK let`s have a look.
There is a Pig bubble. The price of Pigs are skyrocketing! People are camping out over night and lined up and entering into bidding wars to buy Pigs. People are making $150k overnight flipping Pigs. They are refinancing existing Pigs. The median price of a Pig is over $400k in the U.S.
Joe 6pack and his wife Martha 6pack want in. They fly down to Miami, camp out and buy 3 Pigs at $400k each in 2005. They get 3 loans from Countrywide at 120% LTV and walk away with $60k in their pocket from the closing table and are the proud loaners of three $400k Pigs. Are they worried? No, they will just sell the Pigs for $500k each in a couple of years.
The Pig bubble bursts. The 6packs can`t sell their Pigs, Joe loses his lucrative job selling Pig feed and they can`t make the monthly Pig payment. The 6packs cry foul! They never should have loaned us the money to buy those Pigs! Why they can`t even prove who owns the loan for the Pigs!
Who’s fault it that?
17. Get in the Game Says:
June 13th, 2011 at 11:46 am
I know, I know - pick me…I have the answer to your question!
It’s Countrywide’s fault for LENDING the debtor’s (aka loaners) money in the first place for the pigs.
You see if Countrywide would not have given them money for pigs (which they had no intention of paying back), then the debtor’s would have complained that:
Lending standards (for pigs) are too tight
It is IMPOSSIBLE for the ‘average joe’ to ‘afford’ a pig
Banks are penalizing middle class America and not allowing them to purchase pigs
On and on…
When you honestly look at the situation - it is absolutely INSANE on why these households are even crying in the first place.
In the end, Creditors give Debtors (households):
Money - they complain
Not enough money - they complain
“You see if Countrywide would not have given them money for pigs (which they had no intention of paying back)”
The people who borrowed the money had no intention of paying it back and the people who loaned them the money had no expectation of the money being paid back. It was all going to be paid for by someone else. And ultimately is being paid for by someone else.
So, all is well.
“people who loaned them the money had no expectation of the money being paid back…”
They didn’t have to. The FIRE/bankster sector got their money up front. Then offloaded all the risk via securitization.
If the government can print enough pig-slop for the pig farmers then there will be more bacon available to fatten the porker lawmakers. Its a viscious cycle, you see.
PAMP
Saying that lender had no responsibility of due diligence is nothing short of psychopathic.
It used to be called “business malfeasance.”
Oh look, the sleeping tiger has indigestion:
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/06/13/china.protests/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
It would be better for the government to respond to these peoples needs and wants.
Arab Spring, Chinese Summer?
And the next thing you will hear is the sound of US bombers taking off to bomb the “repressive regime”
(Sound of frogs and crickets)
Never mind. Wouldn’t want to bomb any of those new factories put up by WalMart, GE, Caterpillar, GM, etc.
American Winter
I had bacon for breakfast. Game over.
That would make a good epitaph.
The clown car stopped in New Hampshire last night. Yes, I did watch the debate of Republican hopefuls, missed the first 20 minutes or so. Other than Ron Paul, a pretty sorry crowd. Especially that Pawlenty character was kind of creepy and annoying. Every time a current/former military person asked a question they just kept on kissing his ass and telling them how great a job they do instead of answering the question. Some incoherrent ramblings about God and this great nation. Abortion, Obamacare, Muslims, gay rights all the really important stuff. No word (maybe in the 1st 20 minutes?) about fiscal & monetary policy other than some postering about the debt ceiling. Some medicare & social security issues, no changes for current seniors but more reduced benefits sometime in the future. Of course all agreed how horrible a job Obama is doing (which he is). But I was asking myself, you clowns were in charge the 8 years before Obama screwed things up some more. What did you accomplish in those 8 years? Started 2 wars, ran up the deficit, a housing bubble and a meltdown of the financial system. But now you have all the answers? WTF?
So, are you thinking that was a good investment of your time?
I won’t be “throwing my vote away” on some realistic pipe-dream hopeful, I’m voting for Obama because he can win.
This is the first year I’ve actually believed that voting for the status quo would be the real waste of my vote.
Voting for the status quo will result in continued economic malaise, which will help house prices continue to decline. So there’s a tactical case to be made for voting for Obama.
If the House remains republican and the Senate switches to republican, there is a huge case to be made for putting a democrat in the White House.
Split government isn’t always the best solution, but it can be better than the alternatives.
“Democrat in the White House”
It’s “muslim socialist”. Get with the program.
Please keep your talking points straight:
Obamacare death panels = gov bureaucrats kill granny
For-profit InsuranceCo death panels = invisible hand of free market
Vote muslim. don’t fall for that partisan crap.
you clowns were in charge the 8 years before Obama screwed things up
i thought the dems took control of congress in that 8 years? what do you mean?
obama was in charge till the last election.
You have President, House and Senate, all 3 more or less run the country. From 2003 - 2007 all 3 were under Republican control. Arguably a period when some of the greatest economic damage occured. From 2000 - 2003 the house and the presidency were under Republican control, that’s when they started 2 wars, of course with plenty of support from Democrats.
Dems took control of the house in 2007 which was controlled by the Reps since 1995 (12 years). The Seante was in Rep. hands from 2003-2007. By 2007 the housing bubble had hit the high water mark and 2 wars were in full swing. Bush was still the chief until after the 2008 meltdown was set of by the Lehman collapse. Obama came AFTER the collapse and the initial $700 billion bailout.
If memory serves me right he proceeded to throw another $600 billion into the fire and paid of his friends in pharma and insurance with Obama-care.
Memory does NOT serve you right. It was the Repubs that insisted on mandatory insurance.
Well, he did say pass something, pass anything.
That is true Blue Skye. I was not happy with the mandatory insurance, The Repubs thought it would be a show stopper (veto) and miscalculated.
That’s quite a miscalculation. Next time around I hope it is one page. National Healthcare, yes or no. We could do without the insurance companies for a generation.
We could do without the insurance companies for a generation.
How about for longer than a generation? As in, forever?
Couldn’t watch Santorum without getting that frothy google visual, but Bachmann? Ahhhhhh, now THERE’s a candidate with gravitas! Loved her comment that she’d pick her VP “on American Idol.”
but Bachmann? Ahhhhhh, now THERE’s a candidate with gravitas!
She’s the Democrat’s great white hope……
She’s the Democrat’s great white hope……
I thought that was Reagan.
Did anyone watch the Republican debates last night? Now I am to the left as it gets, but I honestly thought that Santorum and Bachmann looked the most comfortable. Romney, Pawlenty and Gingrich? Oyyy……..
Imagine having a President named Sanitarium. Or Gangrinch.
Pawlenty, wasn’t she one of the busty blonds in some James Bond flcik?
Plenty O’toole was a brunette in Diamonds are Forever.
Collars and cuffs?
“Santorum and Bachmann looked the most comfortable”
Nutjobs tend to look relaxed in a crowd.
What I don’t understand is that the ordanined front runner is a guy who hasn’t done jack s..t in the last five years. And they say that the long term unemployed have the toughest times getting jobs.
But he HAS been working hard the last five years, lfc…buying up companies, outsourcing their labor, pocketing the assets. “Global business and strategy consulting firm” he calls it. Bain Capital.
Ahhh yes, three quarters of my graduating school at the UofC would have sold their soul to work at Bain…..
I didn’t.
Instead, I took a walk around Downtown Tucson in 100-degree heat. Felt good to get out there and move the ole bones. I took a ton of pictures and will post them on my blog in the next day or so.
Stay hydrated, Slim.
I did! Carried my hydration pack on my back and that left both hands free to work the camera.
And, sotto voce, the Tucson city fathers are not going to like some of the pictures I took. They sorta rain on the Downtown revitalization parade, if you get my drift.
“Did anyone watch the Republican debates last night?”
I’d sooner watch paint dry. More intelligent as well.
Renters next victims of housing crisis.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43315486/
“Renters, long happy to sidestep the drama homeowners have suffered in the roller-coaster housing market, are now facing their downside of the real estate market’s correction. With apartment and rental housing construction halved in recent years and a wave of former homeowners competing for apartment space with “echo boomers” and other renters, conditions have suddenly ripened for landlords to raise the rent.”
This assumes that the excess single-family housing will not get subdivided into apartments. Expect some bloody fights over zoning and deed restrictions in the coming years.
Here’s the thing, in the interim this is inflationary. So would be any widescale disruption of the supply chain in China, or a rise in commodity prices if China doesn’t tank. And neither will stimulate many U.S. jobs.
Stagflation.
Not even. Rents are going down almost everywhere. There is this oversupply of housing, see.
Our rent has held steady for three years running, while home prices in SoCal continue to decline.
I guess it’s different here.
P.S. I believe the upward adjustment in rents will be more intense at the low-end of the rental market, as that is where demand is increasing due to an influx of families who went broke trying to pay their mortgages before finally throwing in the towel.
My last apartment building where I lived in Ohio went from just over one half to about one third occupied from 2007 to 2009. This was in the ‘Gold Coast’ area of Lakewood just west of downtown Cleveland.
My current building 5 miles south of downtown Denver has had available units since I moved in just over a year ago. I just renewed my lease for 6 months at the same rate and had the option of going month-to-month at a 3% increase.
Keep spinning the lie, REIC-bought-and-paid-for corporate MSM, I ain’t buying it…
Big V, I’m not sure if you’re being sarcastic, but rents are not going down almost everywhere. I’m moving out of my rental tomorrow. Landlord is raising rents 27% for the next tenant. He rented the place the same day he put it on Craigslist.
Where do you get your data? Here is a recent article in Bloomberg, citing at least one group that estimates US apartment rents have risen 5% in the last year.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a75ZnEG59U4I
They are talking about apartment rents. First of all, those numbers are always based on asking prices. Secondly, the prices are due to these “luxury” apartment complexes that arent’ worth it. I pay less for a 3-bedroom house in a cute neighborhood than what I would pay for a 2-bedroom apartment at one of those Avalon complexes.
I have two landlords and I am a landlord. All of us see declining rents. Also, there have been several articles posted on this blog about declining rents, in addition to anecdotal reports from blog posters such as Professor Bear, who lives in San Diego.
Oh, BTW. That article is not very believable. It cites job growth among the young as the reason for these supposedly increasing rates. We all know that’s not true.
Mid-Peninsula south of SF must be one of the exceptions. Rents here are going up in a big way. My neighbor is my landlord, and owns a bunch of different homes and apartments in the area. When I first rented from him in 2004, the listing for his house (a 3bd/2ba) was on Craigslist for one morning…we were second in line, and got lucky that the first fell out.
Now, he says that the market is insanely active (way more active than in 2004). He just bought another property (a clunker, 3/1 that needs help), and rented it in a day after being swarmed by calls. After renting it, he figured he could have gotten a lot more, and wasn’t pricing it to the market (despite owning property in the area for 10+ years, and living on the same street). So, when he put the home I am renting on the market, he asked a lot more than I’m paying, and he still got that property rented in a day.
The rent he is getting is 45% higher than I was paying when I started leasing from him in 2004 (5%+ per year compounded rent growth). Either I got a PHENOMENAL deal in 2004, or there has been massive rent growth.
The for-sale market is not all that dissimilar, if you have a good quality home to sell. There is simply no supply.
I also find it interesting that companies like Equity Residential are showing significant rent growth. They report average rents across their portfolio of $1,473 per unit for the quarter ended 3/31/11, up from $1,337 a year ago (10% increase). Pretty much every market showed increases, only weak growth in Phoenix and Orlando.
Essex reported a 9.2% increase in rents.
Camden was lower at roughly 3% increase in rents.
Frankly, I look more favorably on SEC filings in terms of the facts rather than anecdote or MSM reporting. Perhaps these guys are the exceptions, but I’m seeing money plow into apartments. Perhaps it’s dumb money, but perhaps they see rental increases too…
Phoenix rents have collapsed. You can get 2-bedroom apartments for $300/month. A nice, newer house with a pool is like $1,000/month.
Other residents from SF who post on this blog have not noticed the increases in rents that you are citing, nor have they noticed the hot for-sale market.
Mr. Bubble? SFbubblebuyer? Anyone else?
Cash for Clunkers-type rent subsidy program coming soon. Upgrade to a McMansion rental and get cash help. (it will free up the low-rent stuff for the real low-end).
RAMP
or RUMP
Apt rents in my city have stayed more or less table. There was a slight dip early last year, but they have come back even this year.
Hong Kong Home Sales Tumble After Government Raises Down Payments on Loans
By Kelvin Wong and Stephanie Tong -
Jun 13, 2011 4:03 AM ET
Sales at 10 of Hong Kong’s biggest private residential developments fell 58 percent at the weekend from a week earlier after the government raised minimum down payments and deposits for foreign buyers.
The curbs “came at the right time as there are signs suggesting prices may take off, as sales activities of new homes in recent weeks have been picking up again,” Lee said.
“These new rules will have an immediate impact,” said Jeffrey Ng, a senior executive director at Hong Kong Property Services Agency Ltd., a unit of Midland Holdings Ltd., Hong Kong’s biggest publicly traded realtor. “It will slow down the pace of those who’re looking to buy properties.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-13/hong-kong-home-sales-tumble-after-government-raises-down-payments-on-loans.html - 76k -
Sooo…foreign buyers were juicing the Hong Kong (a China) market whilst Chinese buyers are juicing the Vancouver (foreign) market?
Yeah, that’s gonna end well.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/06/gdp-growth
143rd out of 179 countries……
USA! WE’RE NUMBER ONE! USA! WE’RE…
Oh wait.
With only eight banks representing 65 percent of U.S. mortgage balances, the opportunities for illegal collusion (e.g. price fixing on REO inventory) seem great. I presume the Department of Justice has their eye on the situation.
Deadline extended for mortgage servicers deal
View Photo Gallery — During the housing boom, millions got easy access to mortgages. Now, some mortgage lenders and government officials have taken action after discovering that many mortgage documents were mishandled.
By Dina ElBoghdady and Brady Dennis, Published: June 13
Federal banking regulators have extended a deadline for the nation’s largest mortgage servicers to submit plans for revamping their business practices, in particular loan modifications and foreclosures.
In April, 10 mortgage services agreed to deliver plans to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Reserve and the soon-to-be defunct Office of Thrift Supervision.
…
The Justice Department, state attorneys general and several federal agencies are negotiating a separate settlement with the banks, which sources say might force the companies to pay at least $20 billion in fines and force them to slash the loan balances of certain borrowers. That plan would also revamp mortgage servicing standards.
On Monday, the Justice Department said through a spokeswoman that it appreciates the regulators’ assistance in providing additional time to coordinate efforts.
As the deadline set by the three federal agencies drew near, state and federal officials asked the agencies to extend it, hoping to hammer out a set of potentially more stringent standards that would satisfy all parties.
“We have the issue of timing,” Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller acknowledged in a recent interview, adding that he hoped that “what we’re able to negotiate with banks, that that will become the plan.”
When the OCC announced its agreement in April, the agency said the deal would not undermine the broader settlement coordinated by Justice. At the time, acting Computroller of the Currency John Walsh said the plans would “dovetail.”
The banks that signed on to the agreements are Ally Financial, SunTrust, HSBC, Bank of America, Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase, MetLife, PNC, U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo. The banks represent 65 percent of the mortgage servicing industry, or nearly $6.8 trillion in mortgage balances.
Dumb question of the day (and one I have probably asked many times before, but which has never been answered to my satisfaction):
Why do Democrats in Congress (Dodd, Frank, etc) support housing policies which tempt low-income families to financially ruin themselves by purchasing homes they cannot afford?
Simple answer - the same reason republicans feel the country would be much safer by bombing other countries.
Feel good legislations, I suppose. They do not have time or foresight to see beyond 5 yrs. Pass a feel good legislation, go home and campaign on it and get reelected. That’s all they know.
In the same fashion, why are most metros (run by Dems, mind you) have been so expensive for the poor and minorities to live on? Must be some secret plan they are working on…….
live on = live in
live on = live in = section 8
Housing activists protest massive GOP HUD/Section 8 budget cuts
On Feb 14, Valentine’s Day, housing and tenant activists showed up outside the Russel Senate Office building demanding the Senate reject proposals from House Republicans to gut public housing programs and Section 8 assistance nationwide.
The continuing resolution that has funded Section 8 (and everything else) since last year expires in March. If the GOP and the teabaggers get their way,half of all DC tenents with Section 8 vouchers, as many as 750,000 Section 8 tenants will then be cut off from assistance. Most or all will then face eviction for unpaid and unpayable rent.
http://dcdirectactionnews.wordpress.com/2011/02/15/housing-activists-protest-massive-gop-hudsection-8-budget-cuts/ - 26k -
The good news is that there will be a huge number of new rental units coming onto the market.
After the National Guard gets called in to throw a few million poor out of apartments, and into abandoned property and under bridges.
Expires in March?
“In the same fashion, why are most metros (run by Dems, mind you) have been so expensive for the poor and minorities to live on?”
Good for the slumlords though.
Posted at 4:24 PM ET, 02/14/2011
Budget 2012: Housing and Urban Development
By Dina ElBoghdady
President Obama’s proposed budget includes $41.74 billion for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, about $1.1 billion less than what was enacted by Congress for fiscal 2010.
Programs designed to help the homeless and those in need of rental assistance got the biggest boost in this budget. The administration proposed roughly $2.3 billion for Homeless Assistance Grants, up from the $1.9 billion enacted in fiscal 2010. Another $9.4 billion was requested for project-based rental assistance, up from $8.6 billion in fiscal 2010.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/44/2011/02/budget-2012-housing-and-urban.html - -
Follow the money?
Look to Dodd (back when he was a Senator) and Frank’s constituents — a lot of upper middle class professionals with very big mortgages and very big investments in residential real estate. I like Frank, but I don’t expect him to be the sort of hero who tells the good people of Middlesex and Norfolk counties that they should all smile and eat $250,000+ losses on their home values for the good of the nation.
Perhaps a look back into an earlier “ownership” campaign - that of the 80s 401k boom that lured the working class into the stock markets might be helpful?
First they went after savings/earned income (stocks) then they went after the future labor/potential income (housing). Suppose the next step will be to set up an exchange to trade the unborn?
“then they went after the future labor/potential income (housing)”
Don’t forget student loans. Literally trading your future earnings (presumed to be higher than they would have been without the education) for the cash needed to earn it. And it isn’t dischargable in bankruptcy.
Not answered to your satisfaction because it cannot be, I suspect.
Only God knows the heart of a man, the rest of us are reduced to judging by results.
Ah, but who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men?
The Shadow knows!
OK Eco, there are at least two of us that gets that. I still have the old vacuum tube radio!
You should hear my announcer imitation. It’s better than my Rod Serling, and that’s pretty damn good by itself.
You should hear my announcer imitation.
Here’s mine: “91.3 KXCI Tucson. Real people. Real radio.”
Mind you, I’ve never said that on the air. I’ve only been on the air once, and that was during a pledge drive. I was pitching for donations so I could go back downstairs and get busy with answering the pledge phone.
And no one called.
1,300 Hollywood workers get pay cuts; 31 lose jobs ~ MiamiHerald.com
The City Commission unanimously approves layoffs and salary cuts as it grapples with meeting a $10.3 million budget shortfall this year.
In its latest frenzied effort to close a $10.3 million budget gap, the city of Hollywood on Monday night laid off 31 employees.
The last day of work for the 13 police officers and 18 general employees will be June 24.
The layoffs came as a surprise.
Just days ago, the Broward Police Benevolent Association reluctantly agreed to pay cuts rather than have to face layoffs.
“It is apparent that this city has no faith in good faith collective bargaining,” said Dan Martinez, president of the Hollywood Fire Fighters union, which is also in negotiations with the city.
In addition to the layoffs, the City Commission unanimously approved across the board cuts for all employees: general workers will see their salaries cut 7.5 percent; police 10 percent; fire department 12.5 percent; and the commission members voted to cut their own pay by 10 percent. Nearly 1,300 employees will be affected.
“We tried to find a suitable combination of layoffs and pay cuts,” explained city spokeswoman Raelin Storey.
The city hand-delivered letters to all of the employees affected on Monday.
Officer Chris Campbell was off-duty at home when he received a phone call at 11 a.m. Growing up in Hollywood, Campbell said he always wanted to be a police officer with the city.
After serving in the department for one year, he is now unemployed.
“I was shocked,” he said. “It’s a slap in the face.”
When I saw the headline the first thing that crossed my mind was that Hollywood is part of the city of Los Angeles. Then I saw it was Hollywood, FL.
Cheer up Chris.
There’s always “Mall cop” So much for that “cop job” that most of the Iraq/Afghanistan vets are counting on….
Anyone working for local/state government with less than 1-2 years of seniority need to get those resumes updated and sent out to Buffalo Wild Wings ASAP.
You’re assuming BWW is hiring.
Are Taxes Causing the Rich to Renounce Their Citizenship?
WSJ ~ The Wealth Report HOME PAGE » By Robert Frank
According to the latest Internal Revenue Service report, the number of Americans renouncing their U.S. citizenship (or terminating their long-term permanent residency) has increased nearly ninefold since 2008.
In the first quarter alone, 499 Americans expatriated through the IRS, meaning they probably won’t have to pay U.S. taxes anymore. That compares with a quarterly average of 384 in 2010. And 2010 marked a significant jump from 2009 and 2008, with quarterly averages of 186 and 58, respectively.
These are small numbers of course. With 300 million Americans, 499 expatriates is hardly a drop in the ocean. Yet the trend is almost a straight line up.
Why is this happening?
The IRS doesn’t tell us why people expatriate, or who they are or where they go. Lawyers say most are wealthy Americans who have expatriated to all manner of countries.
One argument is that they are leaving because of President Obama and the nation’s leaders.
“There is growing concern, particularly among the wealthy, about the future financial direction of the country,” said Paul L. Caron, Charles Hartsock Professor of Law at the University of Cincinnati College of Law. “This President constantly demonizes the wealthy, who undoubtedly are concerned about the tax policy that would emerge in 2012 if a re-elected Barack Obama, unconstrained by re-election concerns, finally confronts the budgetary train wreck that he has done so much to exacerbate.”
Other attorneys who specialize in helping the Americans expatriate say the reason is that the IRS is cracking down on overseas bank accounts and offshore income. There is a population of U.S. citizens who live overseas and may never have paid U.S. taxes on their non-U.S. earnings and non-U.S. accounts. Now that the IRS is enforcing the rules, with criminal penalties for scofflaws, the overseas residents would prefer to expatriate rather than pay.
“I think this is coming to the forefront because of offshore reporting and banker reporting issues,” said Peter Connors, a tax attorney in New York. “there is a price to being a citizen of the U.S. and at a certain point the price may not be worth it.”
Whatever the case, the numbers are clearly headed in the wrong direction.
“There is growing concern, particularly among the wealthy, about the future financial direction of the country,” said Paul L. Caron, Charles Hartsock Professor of Law at the University of Cincinnati College of Law. “This President constantly demonizes the wealthy, who undoubtedly are concerned about the tax policy that would emerge in 2012 if a re-elected Barack Obama, unconstrained by re-election concerns, finally confronts the budgetary train wreck that he has done so much to exacerbate.”
I think that the wealthy who bail on this country will find that other countries won’t be as welcoming as they think.
More than a few will quickly realize that they’ll be regarded as walking wallets and nothing more. I doubt that they’ll enjoy that realization.
I don’t think these folks have “bailed” from the US. Basically there is a large (huge even) population of people in certain countries, usually developing countries, and countries beset with fundamental issues of existence (Taiwan, Israel come to mind) who have acquired a US passport (legally, I may add) as a convenience or as an insurance against potential future issues. These folks, for the most part, live, work, earn and spend in their original homelands. Also for the most part, they don’t even file taxes, let alone pay. They may get threatening letters from the IRS, or get shaken down at Immigration when entering the US. I guess some of them don’t think it is worth the trouble anymore to keep their US passports or green cards, and would rather surrender them and pay the expatriation tax, if any.
Sometime last year, I found US customs agents vigorously questioning folks boarding flights from the US to Asia whether they were carrying with them large sums of money (i.e. above $10,000). Earlier on, it used to be that people would come to the us with large sums of money (a friend’s parents got “busted” but they had just a tad over the limit and they had to forfeit that part). I can’t help thinking that the flight of money out of the US is real.
I think that the wealthy who bail on this country will find that other countries won’t be as welcoming as they think.
I saw this first hand in Mexico. As a foreigner you will be harrassed and worse.
And I saw it in Morocco.
It’s especially bad if you’re female and dressed in Western clothing. The guys automatically think you’re a loose woman coming off the hydrofoil (from Algeciras, Spain) to seduce them.
Brazilians are pretty nice to foreigners generally speaking. I’m sure some don’t like us much though.
I mean you’ll be harrased by the government.
Many of the super-wealthy don’t consider themselves to be citizens of any country. They just go wherever they can get the best deal. Good riddance.
Boo-hoo-hoo, Obama calls rich people some bad names, so they start whining and take their balls home.
Never mind that all of his actions so far have been a Republican wet dream.
Is it equally as plausible that these guys are a bunch of crooks who have run out of “marks”, and are moving to more fertile environments?
Please, please tell me that once citizenship is renounced. there are no “do-overs” or “second chances”…….
“terminating their long-term residency”
Why should we be granting long-term residency to people? I think it should be all-or-nothing proposition, don’t you all?
If I could afford it, I would leave this country also… BECAUSE of the wealthy.
U.S. Duties Hit Low-Cost Products Hardest
By Mark Drajem - Jun 14, 2011 (Bloomberg)
Polyester Shirts to $3 Shoes Face Top U.S. Duties
Sneakers costing less than $3 a pair, are no longer made in the U.S. so the protection isn’t saving any jobs. Photographer: Marc Serota/Getty Images
Low-cost imports of items such as polyester shirts and drinking glasses face the steepest U.S. tariffs, punishing poor consumers without benefiting American manufacturers, according to a study.
“Home goods are the most heavily taxed products, and the cheapest goods are taxed most heavily,” Edward Gresser, director of the ProgressiveEconomy project in Washington and a former Clinton administration trade official, said in a study released today. Many of those goods, such as sneakers costing less than $3 a pair, are no longer made in the U.S. so the protection isn’t saving any jobs, he said in an interview.
Gresser combed through the U.S. tariff schedule to find the products with the highest import duties. Home goods face tariffs 20 times the average U.S. duty, raising $14 billion a year in revenue for the U.S. Treasury. That accounts for two-thirds of all the tariff revenue, he said.
The findings released by the GlobalWorks Foundation, a Washington-based nonprofit group that targets the elimination of poverty, are to be discussed today in Washington with lawmakers including Senator Ron Wyden, an Oregon Democrat and chairman of the Senate Finance Committee’s subcommittee on trade. Two bills in Congress would lift some tariffs for goods not made in the U.S., one for footwear and the other for hiking shoes and other outdoor wear.
Just how much is the sneaker tariiff? $1?
Just how much is the sneaker tariiff? $1?
Not sure on less than $3 a pair ones but on most, around 37% of the price the importer paid for the sneaker if it has a fabric upper and about 10% if it has a leather upper.
“….no longer made in the US…..”
Thanks to those $3 sneakers.
And now that the US sneaker industry is non-existant, they want to drop tariffs because the tax is “regressive”.
Of course, you won’t actually see the price of sneakers drop at the store…….
Are we really this effing stupid?
Are we really this effing stupid?
Hmmm….
“Are we really this effing stupid?”
Yes! Or at least they think we are. I was browsing at the some outdoor gear. Just about all clothing and shoes are made overseas and yet I’m seeing hiking shoes (not leather hiking boots) listed for $135. Shirts are $60-75.
I’d love to know what those margins look like.
400% or better.
I’ve worked wholesale/retail. If people only knew how much they are getting screwed…
..they would do nothing.
Gah! Frankly, while the guise of “we have to make it overseas otherwise it would be even more expensive” (a blatant lie, by the way) makes me ill, the real ire should be directed at those willing to pay these prices.
IOW, you are correct that they will do nothing…but continue to buy.
“Are we really this effing stupid?”
Is this a trick question?
Raise the tarrif enough and it will benefit the working poor.
Let’s see no job and 3 dollar sneaker
vs Job and 9 dollar sneaker.
My guess is they will take the job and the 9 dollar sneaker.
Let’s see no job and 3 dollar sneaker
vs Job and 9 dollar sneaker.
My guess is they will take the job and the 9 dollar sneaker.
It wouldn’t even be $9. It would be about $4 and the jobs would be American. We need to jack up those tariffs and bring those jobs home. We’ve sold our manufacturing base for about a 20-25% savings on landed cost. That’s about the average now but it varies per product. Now is not the time to be lowering tariffs.
http://www.areadevelopment.com/siteSelection/dec09/united-states-manufacturing-insouring-costs1102.shtml
The Diminished China Advantage
Gone are the days when OEMs could realize 30 to 50 percent cost savings in manufacturing their products, which today gives companies pause when they consider whether it makes more sense to manufacture in the United States. To develop its index, AlixPartners looked at the relative costs for a market basket of parts over the past three years, and the results showed that China, once the lowest-cost supplier for this market basket, dropped to third in LCC rankings, behind second-ranked India and the new number one, Mexico.
With new tariffs, taxes, and employee salary and benefits laws that took effect January 1, 2009, many OEMs have had second and even third thoughts about keeping manufacturing in China. Added up, China’s manufacturing advantage as an LLC only amounts to about 5 percent. Given the other risks of manufacturing in China, is it really worth it?
With new tariffs, taxes, and employee salary and benefits laws that took effect January 1, 2009, many OEMs have had second and even third thoughts about keeping manufacturing in China. Added up, China’s manufacturing advantage as an LLC only amounts to about 5 percent. Given the other risks of manufacturing in China, is it really worth it?
Not to mention the risk of their ripping off your intellectual property. And using it to manufacture copycat products of their own.
Or the risk of your workers getting killed in a riot, or of rioters burning down your lab, or of the bribe you paid to the corrupt cop going for naught because he got killed in a riot.
Why jack up the tariffs when all we need to do is end the tax breaks?
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68R40I20100928
Ummm ….
Yeah, those “low cost” products from China? The cost is low due to artificial currency devaluation, couple with artificially low wages. It is quite proper for us to tariff those items, so as to level out the playing field so we can keep our workers employed instead of starving.
I haven’t seen $3 shoes in 40 years. Not even at the thrift store!
“Stock market rises on retail news!”
At first glance at the headlines one would think, “Oh, wow! Retail sales are up…the economy is perking up…happy days are here again!”
The fact is retail sales were DOWN in May, which was the first decline in several months. The good news is sales were down less than mainstream analysts expected. Retail sales were reported down 0.2 percent in May.
A lot of brainy people are scratching their heads over what the future holds. Consumers are the main drivers of the economy but they’re up against a high rate of joblessness, a high level of debt that must be managed, and continuing softness in wages and salaries if they’re fortunate to have jobs.
Consumers are the main drivers of the economy but they’re up against a high rate of joblessness, a high level of debt that must be managed, and continuing softness in wages and salaries if they’re fortunate to have jobs.
Gee, I wonder what’s going to happen next?
“Terrorists set off nuclear device; 200,000 people killed……analysts predicted 400,000 casualties…….Stocks up, due to better than expected death report”.
This would be funny if it weren’t true.
“A lot of brainy people are scratching their heads over what the future holds.”
Brainy? More like Ivy League poseurs with connections who don’t really know squat.
JPMorgan Ousts Mortgage Chief Lowman
By Dawn Kopecki - Jun 14, 2011 Bloomberg
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), the second- largest U.S. bank, ousted mortgage chief David Lowman after it overcharged active-duty military personnel on loans and improperly foreclosed on other borrowers.
“Dave Lowman and I have decided he will leave the firm,” Frank Bisignano, the head of home-lending, said today in an internal employee memo obtained by Bloomberg News.
JPMorgan has been taking steps this year to repair its mortgage unit, which posted at least $3.3 billion in losses during the first quarter. Lowman, 54, who ran home-lending since leaving Citigroup Inc. (C) in 2006, was directed in February to start reporting to Chief Administrative Officer Bisignano, 51. The New York-based bank then hired Cindy Armine, Citigroup’s chief compliance officer, last month to increase oversight as chief control officer of home-lending.
“We thank Dave for his five years of service to our firm,” Bisignano said in the memo. “He worked here during extraordinary times and has said he will take some much needed time off.”
U.S. banks are dealing with the backlash from a bust in housing as mortgage losses and related litigation suppress earnings. Home prices in 20 U.S. cities fell 5.1 percent in the first quarter, the largest decline since the first quarter of 2009, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index.
High Losses
Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, 55, said JPMorgan’s record $5.6 billion in profit during the first quarter was tempered by “extraordinarily high losses we still are bearing on mortgage-related issues.”
“Unfortunately, these losses will continue for a while,” Dimon said in a statement on April 13 when the bank reported results.
“……has said he will take some much needed time off…..”
Nah, I wasn’t laid off. Just taking some “time off” whether I wanted to or not.
Except I didn’t get the severance package that this guy is going to get.
Severance packages? Retirement? Vacation?
What are these things I keep hearing about?
Those darn pesky renters, always burning down the responsible and upright owner’s houses…
The burnin’ down the house thing happened a few blocks away. ‘Twas just a few weeks ago, in fact.
Tenant was depressed, decided to take his own life. While doing so, he shot himself and set the house on fire.
Last I saw the house, it was boarded up and sporting City of Tucson “unfit for habitation” signs. And there was yellow tape around the exterior.
Hope the owner had it insured. Of course, even insurance might not pay out since it was arson. If the tenant was depressed about a rent hike the owner levied, would it count as insurance fraud?
Had one of them up in B-ville a few years back. Depression was the least of his problems as the reason he was depressed was because he was mentally unstable and people avoided him like the plague.
“Deficits are when adults tell the government what they want and their kids will pay for it. The reverse of Christmas.” ~Richard Lamm
“Deficits are when the rich tell the government what they want and the taxpayers will pay for it.”
Fixed it.
Right - we just begged our government to send our boys to Iraq.
Linden Ponds files for bankruptcy protection
Boston Business Journal - by Tim McLaughlin
Tuesday, June 14, 2011 Residential Real Estate, Bankruptcies
Linden Ponds, a swank retirement village in Hingham, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Tuesday, in a move that seeks to stabilize the development’s finances.
Linden Ponds filed a pre-packaged bankruptcy in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Dallas. The plan Linden Ponds filed would reduce the community’s debt and preserve the rights and services currently enjoyed by tenants.
The campus, which opened in October 2004, is home to 1,200 senior residents. Erickson Living is the developer and manager of Linden Ponds.
Earlier this year, Linden Ponds defaulted on about $156 million worth of bond debt held by mutual funds such as Putnam Investments, Columbia Management and Oppenheimer Funds.
In addition, Sovereign Bank is the financial backstop on the variable rate portion of the debt. Before the bankruptcy filing, the bank had the power to accelerate the maturity of Linden Ponds debt, according to a letter of credit agreement.
Linden Ponds defaulted on the bonds after skipping a principal and interest payment due March 15. The village said it skipped the payment to conserve cash.
Does anybody outside the Northeast Corridor use the word “swanky”?
Does anyone born after 1950 use the term?
Must be the “Mad Men” effect.
Obama: If Debt Limit Not Raised, Financial Crisis Possible
Tuesday, 14 Jun 2011 | By: Reuters
President Barack Obama warned Tuesday there could be another global financial crisis if the U.S. Congress fails to raise the national debt ceiling.
But in an interview with NBC’s “Today” show, Obama also said he took Republican leaders at their word that they want to avoid such a situation and he expects a deal to increase the debt limit “in a sensible way.”
“The full faith and credit of the United States is the underpinning not only of our way of life, it’s also the underpinning of a global financial system. We could actually have a reprise of a financial crisis, if we play this too close to the line. So we’re going be working hard over the next month,” he said.
Olly olly oxen free!
“Financial Crisis Possible”
What a shocker!
For some reason this reminds me of the common high-school tactic to get girls to have sex with you. “If we don’t do it.. I could die.. the balls actually do turn blue.”
Wall Street Bounces After Signs of Overselling- Reuters
Stocks jumped more than 1 percent on Tuesday as investors were drawn by oversold conditions on a technical basis and retail sales data was better than expected.
Oh goody. Maybe we can save the bonuses this year after all.
Over the last decade, the share of U.S. national income taken home by workers has plummeted to a record low.
Check out the chart below, compiled by the Labor Department, and posted this week by conservative writer David Frum. It shows that the decline began with the brief recession that followed 9/11 in 2001. But it continued even as the economy picked up again, and got even worse once the Great Recession hit. In the weak recovery since then, workers’ share of income just kept on falling.
news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20110614/bs_yblog_thelookout/workers-share-of-national-income-plummets-to-record-low
And it will continue to fall until the masters of the universe have everyone working for food and shelter.
WHAT?
You mean there are other masters of the universe besides me?
The wall street pigmen and globalistas will never be satisfied with 99% of the pie, if they think Joe Sixpack has a crumb more than 1% they’ll kick his teeth in to rip it out of his mouth.
+1 on the Tom Wolfe reference to masters of the universe, that book is an excellent read.
Over the last decade, the share of U.S. national income taken home by workers has plummeted to a record low.
This is because the American worker must not realize he has so much pay-raise bargaining clout as someone tried to explain yesterday.
“Over the last decade, the share of U.S. national income taken home by workers has plummeted to a record low.”
Fortunately, those who saved got great investment returns and dividends.
Wait, what?
You mean the ones who didn’t go through layoff after layoff and wage freeze after wage freeze and pay cut after pay cut and have their new jobs offshore as well?
Well, then yeah, I guess they did.
Uh, more like over the last 30 YEARS.
Sometimes there is a good outcome from a bad situation…
Man dies while raping elderly South Texas woman
REFUGIO, Texas (AP) — Investigators said a man has died while in the act of raping an elderly South Texas woman.
The Refugio County Sheriff’s Office identified the man as 53-year-old Isabel Chavelo Gutierrez. Sheriff’s Sgt. Gary Wright said the incident happened June 2 after he rode two miles by bicycle from his home to that of his 77-year-old victim in the tiny coastal community of Tivoli.
Wright said the 5′-7″, 230-to-250 pound man sneaked into the woman’s house and raped her at knife point.
During the assault, he said he wasn’t feeling well, rolled over, and died.
Gutierrez’ body was sent to the Nueces County medical examiner in Corpus Christi for autopsy.
Gutierrez was a registered sexual offender on parole from a sentence for aggravated sexual assault and indecency with a child.
I pity the bicycle that had to support all of that weight.
He raped a bike?
The man named Isabel. What were his parents thinging?
“5′-7″, 230-to-250″
“I pity the bicycle that had to support all of that weight.”
AZ — you realize that I’m sitting right here? Now, I’m much taller than 5′7″, but still! [Although I do believe that my bikes let out I groan when I choose them in the morning]. Two co-workers just got back from the SF - LA Aids Ride. Big accomplishment, IMO.
That lady must have been like “Oh no, what should I do?” And then she was all “Oh, never mind, problem solved, yay!”
Good thing she doesn’t live in Toronto though. That would be really bad, cause then we would all be like “Yeah, but was she dressed like a slut?”
I know it’s not funny, but still.
SACRAMENTO (CBS13) – Metal thieves are stripping small but critical pieces out of fire sprinklers, and fire officials worry the trend could create a bigger fire danger and end up costing lives.
The Sacramento Metro Fire Department said building owners have reported a number of thefts of a fire department connector, or FDC, from their fire systems.
The part is traditionally made from solid brass and acts as a pressure regulator for a building’s sprinklers, keeping fires small and increasing survivability, according to Sac Metro Fire Captain Kim Fong.
“It decreases the amount of water we can initially put on the fire through the use of the sprinkler system,” Fong said. “There are some unscrupulous recyclers out there.”
The part is necessary at most commercial businesses or other places with the possibility of serious loss of life. The business owner is responsible for replacing the devices, but frustration is mounting over repeat crimes that seem to result in a new theft almost immediately after the new part is installed.
The thefts have become so frequent that officials are looking into changing regulations to allow the part to be made out of a simple alloy instead of more valuable brass.
Ain’t poverty a bitch
The poor start stealing everything not nailed down.
Gee who could have seen this coming?
Extension of “Crack for Scrap” government program. One of the more successful, I might add. That, and the wildly popular “Oxy’s for Catalytic Converters” subsidy.
“When the people have nothing left to lose, they lose it”.
Gerald Celente
Marie Antoinette didn’t get it either.
There is no need for anyone to get their panties in a wad. The debt ceiling will be raised. I say raise it to 20 trillion, get that out of the way, so we can crank the party back up. We love debt, it’s our way of life. Print,B.B.Print!
Bernanke urges GOP to support raising debt ceiling
Bernanke warns Republicans: Don’t use debt limit to gain leverage in budget negotiations
WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is urging Republicans to support a vote to raise the nation’s borrowing limit. He says threatening to block the increase to gain deeper cuts in federal spending could backfire and worsen the economy.
Bernanke says even a short delay in making payments on the nation’s debt would cause severe disruptions in financial markets, damage the dollar and raise serious doubts about the nation’s creditworthiness. The nation must raise the $14.3 trillion borrowing limit by Aug. 2.
Bernanke is calling on Democrats and Republicans to develop a credible long-range plan to attack the nation’s soaring budget deficit. The deficit is on track to top $1 trillion for a third straight year.
Bernanke is lying. If a struggle to really reduce deficits develops, it will strengthen the dollar, and improve the US’ credit worthiness.
Bernanke’s worst nightmare, a stronger dollar.
Maybe BB believes that given the choice, Congress and the President will stop paying bondholders rather than stop paying soliders and seniors.
Before he can inflate away those obligations.
So I guess this means we may be heading into a new ice age? Good, it’s been to hot to soon here in S.C.
Sun’s Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity
by Denise Chow, SPACE.com Staff Writer
Some unusual solar readings, including fading sunspots and weakening magnetic activity near the poles, could be indications that our sun is preparing to be less active in the coming years.
The results of three separate studies seem to show that even as the current sunspot cycle swells toward the solar maximum, the sun could be heading into a more-dormant period, with activity during the next 11-year sunspot cycle greatly reduced or even eliminated.
“This is highly unusual and unexpected,” said Frank Hill, associate director of the National Solar Observatory’s Solar Synoptic Network. “But the fact that three completely different views of the sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation.”
Currently, the sun is in the midst of the period designated as Cycle 24 and is ramping up toward the cycle’s period of maximum activity. However, the recent findings indicate that the activity in the next 11-year solar cycle, Cycle 25, could be greatly reduced. In fact, some scientists are questioning whether this drop in activity could lead to a second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period from 1645 to 1715 when the sun showed virtually no sunspots.
“Cycle 24 started out late and slow and may not be strong enough to create a rush to the poles, indicating we’ll see a very weak solar maximum in 2013, if at all,” Altrock said. “If the rush to the poles fails to complete, this creates a tremendous dilemma for the theorists, as it would mean that Cycle 23’s magnetic field will not completely disappear from the polar regions. … No one knows what the sun will do in that case.”
If the models prove accurate and the trends continue, the implications could be far-reaching.
“If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades,” Hill said. “That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.”
“This is highly unusual and unexpected,”
He sounds like an economist.
BA DUMP BA!
The Federal Reserve Will Go Bankrupt, Don’t Listen to Bernanke: Jim Rogers By Jeff Macke | Breakout – Yahoo.com
Jim Rogers truly believes Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will end quantitative easing, as planned, at the end of the month.
“(Bernanke) says he’s going to stop QE2 … I take him at his word since he’s said it so many times,” explains Rogers. If that seems like a backhanded compliment, it is. It’s also the nicest thing Rogers said about either Bernanke or the Fed as a whole in our latest interview.
If there’s any truth to the long held market cliche “don’t fight the Fed,” then Rogers is in for a world-class beat down. He seems utterly unable to stop brawling with the Fed. At the very least, Rogers rages at the Fed machine at every opportunity.
When Rogers visited Breakout in March, I made him “imaginary Fed chief” by virtue of the powers of Yahoo! Finance. It was the shortest imaginary reign in history as Rogers made shutting the Federal Reserve the top item on his agenda. Today, the man is harder-lined on the subject than ever, based on our interviews. He says you should reject everything you know or are told about the Fed, starting with the idea that the job of Fed chairman is an apolitical role. All Fed chairmen are political stooges, says Rogers, and Bernanke is no different. And as we move closer to November 2012, he says “there’s enormous pressure to get Obama re-elected … Bernanke knows where his bread is buttered.”
Rogers dismisses Dr. Ben as “just an Ivy League professor” who has never been right. According to Rogers, Bernanke has been out of ideas since arriving in Washington — and that’s a good thing, because what the Fed and Bernanke have done so far has sent us down a path that the economy might never recover from. The stimulus from two rounds of quantitative easing are only the most recent and public, and have been likened to giving a drunk more booze to avoid a hangover, according to Rogers and many trading economic-types. At this point, rather than just a hangover, the economic patient is headed for the morgue. Rather than a severe recession or even depression, we’ve been putting off feeling the pain, stashing a few trillion of bad debt here or there, and hoping it goes away. It won’t, in Rogers’ view.
However, all is not entirely lost. Rogers notes that the Federal Reserve, enacted in 1913 by Woodrow Wilson, was only the latest in a long line of attempts at U.S. central banking, all of which have ended in tears and disaster. The Federal Reserve will hopefully be gone before the country is, he says Until the Fed is abolished, Rogers has one piece of advice for traders and investors about Bernanke: “Don’t pay attention to the man.”
Complete nonsense. Jim Cramer says the Bernanke is the greatest leader since Ken Lay and the man deserves more credit for keeping ‘mericuh hummin’ and out of trouble like Europe.
Well if Cammer sez it, it must be true! He is rarely if ever wrong.
Quick back-of-the-envelope calculation:
We keep reading that 4.2m or so U.S. homes are in default. I don’t know how the MLS inventory looks in your area, but in San Diego County, which has a population of 3m or so (say 1% of the U.S. population), we perpetually see between 10K-20K homes on the MLS. If the San Diego share of the 4.2m matched our 1% share of the U.S. population, then I guess that would imply about 42,000 homes waiting to hit the market some time in the foreseeable future, in addition to normal supply flow due to ordinarily life events (downsizing in retirement, relocation, etc).
Economic outlook grim, budget watchdog says
By Richard Wolf, USA TODAY
The director of the Congressional Budget Office said today that more economic “pain” is on the way, and he cautioned that a potential default on the national debt “would be a dangerous gamble.”
Douglas Elmendorf, whose job it is to evaluate deficit-reduction proposals from the White House and Congress, said those plans must be “specific and concrete” if they are to reassure financial markets that the United States can get its fiscal house in order.
His remarks at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast this morning painted a grim picture of the economy and its prospects, but Elmendorf held out hope that things could improve rapidly if businesses and households begin to spend the cash they saved during the recent recession.
“A great deal of the pain of this downturn lies in front of us still,” Elmendorf said, including persistently high unemployment, low investment and weak economic output.
Among the continuing risks: the high number of foreclosures, another oil price spike and Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, which he said could cause “financial contagion.”
Elmendorf said negotiations to reduce budget deficits by $4 trillion or more over the next decade must produce credible savings in order to satisfy financial markets. He said the savings could boost rather than harm the economy as long as they weren’t implemented too soon, because they would reassure markets that the United States was on the right course.
As for President Obama’s proposed “debt cap” and other procedural changes designed to guarantee savings if the White House and Congress can’t agree on specific cuts, Elmendorf was unimpressed.
“They’re not a substitute for the actual policy decisions,” he said.
Lockheed Martin Announces 1,200 Layoffs at Space Systems Subsidiary 06/14/2011 -By FNNO Staff in News corner
Lockheed Martin’s Space Systems Company announced today that it would eliminate approximately 1,200 positions out of its 16,000 strong workforce by year-end.
The company said it would be reducing middle management by 25%, with significantly smaller percentages in other levels and disciplines. Overall, the cuts represents a 7.5% reduction in the business’ total workforce.
The company singled out three sites that would be impacted the most: operations in Sunnyvale, California, the Delaware Valley region of Pennsylvania, and Denver, Colorado, where several major programs are transitioning out of development.
Joanne Maguire, executive vice president, Lockheed Martin Space Systems, said, “In today’s economic environment, we have two choices: make painful decisions now or pay a greater price down the road. This is a difficult but necessary action to improve efficiencies and make our business more competitive going forward. We will remain relentlessly focused on achieving operational excellence and mission success for our customers as we position to deliver more affordably in the future.”
The company will offer voluntary layoffs for eligible employees in an attempt to reduce the number of involuntary layoffs, as well as provide career-transitioning support to those who are laid off.
Yup. This is just the beginning. 1200 multiplied by a dozen big companies. General Dynamics laid off 5% of its workforce the last two weeks. They will have another round in October.
Lots of high paid engineers will have nothing to pay their mortgages with.
Recession part deux.
More house price declines.
29% down in 4 out of 5. Is this really happening? I still zero down loans being offered.
Clipped from NBC
Prices continue to tumble despite affordability, which by most conventional metrics is near historic highs.
The rate for a 30-year conventional mortgage is around 4.5 percent, just above the historic low of 4.2 percent in October 2010. The ratio measuring mortgage costs to renting is 7 percent below its norm, while the price-to-income ratio is 23 percent below its average, Dale said.
Yet other factors are constraining the market.
After the fallout from the subprime debacle, in which millions lost their homes when they defaulted on loans they could not afford, banks changed underwriting standards.
More than four in every five mortgages now require a down payment of 20 percent, and credit history standards have tightened. At the same time, foreclosures continue at a brisk pace, pushing more supply onto the market and pressuring prices downward.
Then there is the issue of underwater homeowners-those who owe more than their house is worth-representing another 23 percent of homeowners who cannot leave or are in danger of mortgage default.
Indeed, the foreclosure problem is unlikely to get any better with 4.5 million households either three payments late or in foreclosure proceedings. The historical average is 1 million, according to Dales’ research.
Did you get this article from a trip to bizzaro world? Affordability at all time highs? 4 out of 5 new mortgages with 20% down?
Maybe they’re referring to bank held loans only?
That would kind of crater this blimp, don’t you think?
Get’um while their hot! Wennie dolls…
NEW YORK – An online action figure company has jumped on the Anthony Weiner sexting scandal bandwagon with a doll of the New York congressman in two versions: censored and uncensored.
HeroBuilders.com of Oxford, Conn., is offering the “standard” doll for $39.95 and the anatomically correct “for adults only” version for an extra $10.
Both are dressed in a gym shirt and shorts with a label that reads “Tweet This.”
Grab your ankles for some more hope ‘n change, America. Obama’s War on the Responsible ramps up further as he puts US taxpayers on the hook for $1 billion in Egyptian Eurobonds. Color that money gone.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/06/13/bloomberg1376-LMQNXB0UQVI901-62DGSP97Q44HKCTDFDRH2NHIT3.DTL
June 14 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama’s guarantee on $1 billion of Egyptian Eurobonds is poised to reduce the country’s borrowing costs, helping the transition to democracy after six decades of autocratic rule.
The support that Obama pledged last month may cut yields on the five-year debt by 200 basis points, or the equivalent of $100 million, according to the median estimate of five fund managers surveyed by Bloomberg. Yields on Egypt’s one-year bills jumped to the highest level since November 2008 following the uprising that ousted President Hosni Mubarak in February. The country last sold international debt in April 2010.
“The American backing is a complete game changer,” Michael Cirami, who helps manage $12 billion in assets for Boston-based Eaton Vance Corp., said in a telephone interview. “There may be a spill-over effect that it’s going to reduce the risk premium of their non-guaranteed debt and help them re-enter the market eventually on their own.”
Obama is offering assistance for the planned Eurobond sale as the International Monetary Fund forecasts Egypt’s economy may grow 1 percent this year, the slowest pace since 1992, and Moody’s Investors Service says the country’s public finances are “significantly” weaker than countries with similar credit ratings. The budget may post its biggest deficit in at least a decade in the fiscal year ending this month, hampering efforts to create jobs and reduce the poverty rate, reasons that sparked the anti-Mubarak revolt, according to the Finance Ministry.
So, who’s the new boss in Egypt? A general perhaps? At the US teat obviously. Well enough, if they are nice to Israel. Cheap at $1B. Hey, how do you define Democracy? Is it military dictatorship that the US supports?
No, not 1B, just 100M$ which is the difference in yields. Only if Egypt were to fully default would the cost go up to 1B and with Uncle Sam’s backing that will be less likely (and anyway were they to default, I’m sure the US will get something else in return - maybe return of the Suez canal control, or offshore oil/gas fields etc). Regardless, this is a small price to pay for installing a compliant regime in Egypt - were the country to default, the government would collapse, chaos would reign. Terrorists would be born, and the domino effect would be felt in other US allies. So in all, this is a good strategic move.
Obama now qualifies for the Economics Nobel too.
Is it military dictatorship that the US supports?
Hey, join along, we’ll go ask “Dickey-Boy” Cheney himself to answer your question!
that Obama, he saves like a country a week!
it feels like he has brought us redistribution of wealth on 2 levels: domestic and international.
black over white
muslim over non-muslim
fb over renter
union over tax payer
foreign needs over domestic needs
arab over isreali
illegal alien over tax payer
i just don’t see eye to eye with Obama
Sure he did.
Republicans block ending offshore jobs tax breaks | Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68R40I20100928
Your religious bigotry is showing again.
“religious bigotry is showing”
If one is a Jew, or sympathetic to them, does that imply hatred, and bad stuff?
If one is a Jew, or sympathetic to them, does that imply hatred, and bad stuff?
It only imply’s to me that one should use “critical thinking” skills to claims of “injustice”.
Bernie Ecclelstone buys his 22 year old daughter Aaron Spelling’s LA mansion. (aka the most expensive home in the US)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/8575656/Petra-Ecclestone-to-buy-most-expensive-home-in-the-US.html
‘Lying listings’ fool more homebuyers
By Jay MacDonald • Bankrate.com
Lost in translation
Jon Boyd, past president of the National Association of Exclusive Buyer Agents, joined forces with NAEBA members worldwide to compile a translation guide of listing agent euphemisms.
They include:
•Grandma’s house: Realtors interpret this to mean a) the house hasn’t been updated since Grandma moved in or b) it still smells like Grandma.
•Great potential: The operative word here is “potential.” The “potential” in one case pointed to the fact that there was a large crack through the center of the foundation caused by an earthquake.
•Light and bright: Bring your sunglasses because everything in this baby will be white: walls, cabinets, tile. Where have you seen this before? Oh yeah, the hospital.
•Meticulously maintained: It could mean the owners never bothered to update the property. Maintenance is admirable for plumbing and HVAC, not so much for cabinets, carpets and windows.
•Mile to the beach as the seagull flies: And you’ll wish you had wings. Those straight-line calculations can mean some pesky traffic lies between you and the lifeguard shack.
•Needs TLC: You may freely substitute “OMG” for “TLC” here. Boyd says the phrase “TLC” often means the house has been abused and requires more than mere redecorating. “The average homebuyer who sees HGTV a couple times before they go looking is not sensitive to that,” he says.
•Newer furnace and AC: “Newer” has a certain “truthiness” to it. In one case, both units were 25 years old. When the listing agent was asked why she made such an audacious claim, she replied, “Because each one of them had received a new part within the last year.”
•Retro decor: It’s ’60s flashback time. Can you dig the original paisley vinyl floors and avocado appliances, man? Groovy!
•This house just had a total facelift: Loosely translated, it means the seller painted everything. But paint, like a facelift, can only hide so much.
•This house will go fast: Might have been believable in the first 30 days on the market, but not anymore. One home with this description had been on the market 247 days.
•Turnkey: Meaning they don’t want to have to haul away all that orange-and-brown-plaid-polyester-covered furniture.
•Very bright, sunny home: Often true because there’s not a tree in sight.
•Water view: Of course, you’ll need to stand on the upper deck railing and crane your neck. With binoculars. On an extremely clear day.
Read more: ‘Lying listings’ fool more homebuyers http://www.bankrate.com/finance/real-estate/lying-listings-fool-more-homebuyers-1.aspx#ixzz1PIsIsoaA
Read about Scumbag Realtors.
http://www.irrationaldiversions.com/stories/realtor