May 10, 2006

Record Inventory Means ‘Discounting’ In Dallas Area

The Dallas News reports the boom is running out of steam. “Has the North Texas housing market finally turned down? It’s too early to say, but April’s 13 percent drop in pre-owned home sales from a year ago should catch folks’ attention.”

“April’s decline was the biggest year-over-year slide in local home sales in more than two years, and follows a 4 percent decline in March. ‘For two months in a row it’s negative,’ said Jim Gaines, an economist with Texas A&M University’s Real Estate Center. ‘You are maybe beginning to see a bit of a trend.’”

“A close look at housing statistics from the North Texas Real Estate Information System shows that the decline is coming in sales of homes priced below $140,000. ‘Those are the entry-level people,’ Mr. Gaines said. ‘A 1 percent change in the interest rates can change the number of households that can participate in the market.’”

“Real estate agents also say the market varies significantly by neighborhood, and the statistics back them up. In April, pre-owned home sales dropped more than 25 percent in moderately priced neighborhoods in areas including Cedar Hill, Lancaster, Mesquite, Oak Cliff, Richardson and Allen. But double-digit sales increases were recorded in more expensive neighborhoods in DeSoto, Northeast Dallas and Far North Dallas.”

“In April, 6,898 pre-owned homes were sold, down from 8,052 in March. The number of single-family homes for sale in the area was up about 2 percent last month to 44,371 listings. That equals about a seven-month supply of housing on the market. And that doesn’t count all of the more than 9,000 new homes for sale in the area.”

“A record number of new homes is available in the area, and big builders have been discounting houses and offering incentives to lure buyers from the pre-owned home market. ‘There’s no question about that,’ said Ted Wilson with Residential Strategies. ‘The big builders have the speculative inventory on the ground right now, and discounting is going on.’”




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119 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-05-10 13:22:54

With no barriers to more home construction, the homebuilders large and small are going to continue to add inventory. A good example of the housing boom setting up not-so-hot areas for a fall. The metroplex is a big city, but 53,000 homes is a glut. IMO.

 
Comment by Jaz
2006-05-10 13:26:12

the decline is coming in sales of homes priced below $140,000

There are houses somewhere for under $140K? Whoa.

Comment by DeepInTheHeartOf
2006-05-10 13:45:20

Quite a few around here under that price. In many older places you can find ones under $100k. (usually

 
Comment by txchick57
2006-05-10 14:42:01

YOu don’t want to see what you get for that. Cardbord, spit and baiing wire.

Comment by easthawaii
2006-05-10 18:32:03

I grew up in Fort Worth. A friend’s 1955 ranch-style home in South Hills, probably 3-2, recently sold for $89,000. It needs updating, but I am sure there are many similar ones. Just fine neighborhood.

 
 
Comment by stressed_renter
2006-05-10 14:48:52

$140 K can’t buy you a shit box in a corner of a busy street with a crack house neighbor in LA. Those prices are astronomically cheap compared with LA. What is the income level in those areas, anybody knows? Why are the same house in LA selling for Tripple. I can’t believe land costs are tripple what it is in Dallas. Are builders making a killing in LA?

Comment by Sly_Ace
2006-05-10 16:31:26

For 140k you can get a 2000 sq ft house with upgrades. The only problem is that you will be far away from anything. The average income in one area with which I am familiar that contains lots of houses in this price range is about 60k.

Two factors to consider when comparing DFW and LA. First, property tax and insurance is higher here. This puts a limit on appreciation caused by easy financing because exotic mortgages can only lower the payment so much. Second, there are no regulatory or other barriers to grown. Land is abundant and a house can be built in 3 months.

For the money, Texas offers a much higher standard of living than California.

Comment by Sly_Ace
2006-05-10 16:32:08

growth, not grown.

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Comment by LArenter
2006-05-11 06:58:49

Dallas is a DUMP!! I just sold my house there after being in LA for 2 years. I had it on the market for a year, did some updates and it finally sold with my having to take $20k to closing! I would NEVER live in Dallas again! It is a true armpit! If you don’t speak with a southern accent you are immediately branded a “yankee” and treated like crap! I hate the place. I spent 9 long years there. The incomes are incredibly low and the real estate taxes are horrible. The really need a state income tax, but the morons there don’t want it. They instead punish the home owners and refuse to fund their education system. It is truly a mess! STAY AWAY!!

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Comment by txchick57
2006-05-11 07:09:20

So you finally caved, eh? Now you can tell the truth. LOL Good going, you’ll be glad you sold in a year or so.

 
Comment by LArenter
2006-05-11 09:48:44

Yeah, I about had to drug my husband to agree with me! It was not a matter of me caving, it was matter of getting my stuborn husband to agree and get rid of the thing!

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by KirkH
2006-05-10 13:28:50

New consumer confidence numbers are out…

“In the poll, more respondents — 47 percent — gave the economy poor marks than they did in March, when 41 percent said they considered the economy somewhat or very poor.”

A six percent jump in negative sentiment won’t be good news for those trying to sell overpriced houses. Houses which aren’t going to get any cheaper because, as we all know, home prices have never dropped on a national level… yet.

Comment by KirkH
2006-05-10 13:32:24
Comment by feepness
2006-05-10 13:57:47

Yay! I reloaded my puts today. Fingers crossed.

Comment by The Halfwit
2006-05-10 15:29:29

Feepness,
I’ve been shorting KB Homes (KBH) regularly and doing well. I shorted Contry Wide Financial (CFC) and I’m getting killed. IMHO, the HB’s are a good short and inutuitively the lenders should be as well. Why are the lenders still holding up? Would you care to share any insight on the subject?

-Half

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Comment by CA renter
2006-05-11 00:06:41

Half,

Although you directed your question to Feepness, I will add my **opinion**. As you know, GDW (World Savings) was bought out by Wachovia last week for a very hefty premium over stock price. God knows why, because GDW has 99% ARMs which are concentrated in CA. The puts I had on GDW became essentially worthless **just like that**. That’s the gamble, I suppose.

CFC might be set up for another buyout. Also watch HBs carefully. There will likely be some consolidation here, and the purchase price will likely be higher than stock price. If your options have no intrinsic value, you’re basically sunk.

Time for all of us to keep our eyes and ears open, as things will be changing in the HB/lender sectors, IMHO.

 
Comment by Sean
2006-05-11 15:00:32

There is a lag between HB and mortgage lenders - lenders have old loans as a cushion - which means if new housing/mortgages stop right away, HB will get killed instantly (no income) while lenders can live by old performing loans. It’s important to know the loan structure of a lender - if the loan portfolio has lots of fixed mortgage, the lender will fare much better than the ones having lots of new ARM or other creative loans.

 
 
Comment by Sly_Ace
2006-05-10 16:45:04

Me too, right after the HBs dipped after the FOMC announcement. Oh well. Still, I got back in for a bit less than I sold them for yesterday; did not want to risk a “we are done for now” rally.

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Comment by flat
2006-05-10 13:31:12

they dropped from 1990 to 95
every fckin where

Comment by John Law
2006-05-10 13:39:10

yep.

 
 
Comment by M.B.A.
2006-05-10 13:35:37

TX is crazy RE anyway. 20 years ago, the Frisco area (N Dallas) did not even have 3000 people - now they have almost 100000. Growth is astronomical and it is weird going to a place where nothing is more than 10-15 years old. So much land and they still build homes 10 feet apart!!!!! Icky.

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-05-10 14:31:33

It’s true about the ten foot apart deal. More profits for the builder, an ugly neighborhood for decades. The last time I was in Frisco the traffic was terrible.

Comment by Bob
2006-05-10 14:49:51

We moved from Tampa last year and bought in Mckinney tx. Right next to stone bridge ranch. Thats a huge high end development, houses go from 200-1 mil i believe. For us it was a great move. Brand new 2500 sq foot house, we paid 135,000 next to a new school with great teachers. We are able to live off of one income and the wife can stay home with the kids. everything is brand new, this entire area is growing like crazy, however I have seen LOTS of for sale signs latley and no one seems to be buying.

Comment by gonetoaz
2006-05-10 15:16:44

Bob, we need to talk. My husband is being transfered to Dallas next year 07. We will be relocating to the McKinney/Allen area.

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Comment by Bob
2006-05-10 16:43:55

sure shoot me an email texasbootsprince@yahoo.com

 
 
 
Comment by Karen
2006-05-10 15:18:27

I had to LOL when we went to look at the Toll brothers McMansions. They were something like 4K sf, 3 stories, duplex with no yard at all. We were told how boomers, as they age, won’t want/be able to care for a yard. All I could think is “but they want 4K sf, 3 stories to take care of?”

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2006-05-10 14:43:43

You want to see a truly deluded MOFO, check this out.

http://dallas.craigslist.org/apa/159396049.html

Imagine renting a house if you had 7K per month to spend. For that you could get a penthouse in one of the big condo buildings in Oak Lawn or a nice place in Highland Park.

Comment by Sly_Ace
2006-05-10 16:34:22

LOL. “Truly deluded” is right. Also, why would somebody lease that kind of house and not want to run a credit check? Not that the issue will ever come up.

 
Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2006-05-11 08:15:41

“No Qualifications! No Credit Checks!” Are they insane? Hmmm, maybe we are on the verge of a new kind of credit check….. “What? You have a history of arson? Welcome! We’ll pay you to rent our place.” : D

 
Comment by DeepInTheHeartOf
2006-05-11 08:39:48

Did you look at the apprasial district record for it? Appraised at $154,383. That can’t be correct.

 
 
Comment by LArenter
2006-05-11 07:02:57

Yeah, I bought my first house in Frisco. They think it so wonderful with the sports arenas and all, but it is a real hell-hole. Everyone there lives their lives around that stupid mall. It’s not even that nice! Northpark and Willowbend are much nicer! We moved out of there due to the traffic. Once again the idiots in TX don’t want to pay for any infrastructue due to their antiquated tax system! California is so much nicer!! Traffic and all!!

 
 
Comment by nobubblehere
2006-05-10 13:44:08

“There are houses somewhere for under $140K? Whoa.”

$140K will buy a extremely nice house in small midwest towns.

 
Comment by SDNewbie
2006-05-10 13:48:34

OT, but on the subject of record inventory - anyone else noticed how SD County is going up by the huindreds now every day? 19,939 as of this afternoon. 20K tommorow morning?

Comment by NOVA fence sitter
2006-05-10 14:01:12

Northern Virginia (outside DC) is increasing at a similar rate. I went back and looked are previous years and it seems like that rate of increase will only pick up come July and August.

Comment by SDNewbie
2006-05-10 14:14:07

Is this the phase that will later be described as the “Run on the Banks?” I get the feeling average joe investor just heard about “The Bubble.”

 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2006-05-10 14:21:17

My little corner of the world - Bakersfield - Inventory is moving up BIG time this week! Looks like all markets are moving closer to the perfect storm as we speak. Batton down the hatches and call in a new captain - Clooney took the ship down in the movie and at his own condo tower in Vegas. Where is Joseph Hazelwood when you need him (capitan of the Exxon Valdez)?

Comment by AZgolfer
2006-05-10 14:27:56

It will interesting to see how Bakersfield plays out. That part of CA was always the most afordable. Just like Phoenix, you put up with the heat for the low cost of housing.

 
 
Comment by Karen
2006-05-10 15:01:42

I’m seeing that on the Northern Nevada MLS as well. It seems like every day it’s up 100-200.

 
 
Comment by say what
2006-05-10 14:23:47

How true, just met a woman in Tampa, who talked about problems they are having with selling their property, house+1 1/2 acres of land for $575…After six months and 35K reduction still no takers. They bought the property six years ago for about $180K (she smiled when she said that). I did put my two cents in and told her to reduce drastically if she wants to sell. With all the builders offering furnisned houses+ steep discounts she can not compete otherwise. I am thinking she has a HELOC and can’t…

Comment by waaahoo
2006-05-10 14:32:17

I think that is the real problem with this particular bubble. Too many people have already spent their “profits” and won’t be able to sell without admitting or comitting a huge financial no no and setting their families back for decades.

Comment by txchick57
2006-05-10 15:25:36

Yes, that’s the X factor when you see the stories that don’t make sense about someone who won’t sell who should be sitting on a large profit.

 
Comment by OutofSanDiego
2006-05-11 04:57:35

Some may have only “virtually” spent their unrealized profits, but it puts them in the same mind set. I have seen this with a few co-workers that are trying to sell their homes. They are having no luck, but are unwilling to make any real price reductions, even though they are sitting on a 100% gain in 3.5 yrs. One guy has made plans to use his profit to buy a house in Panama (cash) in a few years, so he “needs” the money. Crazy, even when he admits that he would have been happy to sell for 50K less one year ago, now he genuinely feels his house is worth much more and isn’t willing to budge. It will be fun to watch his situation progress as he transfers in 6 weeks and has had no offers on his house yet. He doesn’t make enough money to carry the costs of an empty house. His case is so typical of the sterotypical “chasing the market down” type seller so well illustrated on this blog.

Comment by say what
2006-05-11 05:22:31

This type of thinking illustrates how many of these homowners are clueless to basic financial realities. Just because you want to make it so doesn’t.

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Comment by shel
2006-05-11 20:42:23

I wish we had good stats on this issue–of how many people are HELOCed to hell.
But your point about the ‘virtual’ spending is so interesting…and sad commentary on this whole nasty scene. Happy to sell for 50K less last year, but hey this is *this* year. He expects 50K per year increase in value. He’s gotta be letting his thoughts land on this once a week at least. My house is now worth…my house is now worth…oohooh, turn that calendar page!…my house is now worth….what a way to spend your mental energy!
If you’re doing this like so many are probably these last crazy years, it must feel like someone is actually trying to take money out of your bank account when they offer you less than your constant calculations and dreamlife ’spending’ of your profit tell you you ‘deserve’ by virtue of having signed a mortgage doc.
I’ve never really thought about this when I hear stories about people claiming they can’t just ‘give’ away their houses! That they’ve grown very attached to their unrealized and much dreamt-about profits, even if they’ve only spent it in their heads thus far…

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Comment by Bob
2006-05-10 15:02:18

What area of Tampa? im a Tampa native… Its 75% crappy places you would never want to live and the few places you want to live is so overpriced you would never buy.

Comment by say what
2006-05-10 16:21:29

By 54 going toward Pasco county on Bruce B Downs.

 
Comment by M.B.A.
2006-05-11 01:58:30

If you don’t mind the 70 year olds, stay west of 19. Like Tarpon Springs, etc….

 
 
Comment by stressed_renter
2006-05-10 15:14:55

Easy to spot the Heloc people, low end job holders with BIG SUVs

 
 
Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2006-05-10 14:29:37

Awaiting TxChick’s post…. (smirk)

She said it 1,000 times, all the specuvestors will lose everything in North TX.

It’s not really a surprise to anybody who has ever been to North Texas. It’s a great place (I think, others may disagree), but there is land to build everywhere. No barrier to building=No appreciation.

clouseau

Comment by watcher
2006-05-10 14:37:01

LOL. Nobody hates Texas like TxChick. I still haven’t figured that out.

Comment by txchick57
2006-05-10 14:45:39

Not true. Nobody hates DALLAS like Txchick. I like Austin and West Texas a lot, can tolerate Houston and Ft. Worth. But Dallas must die.

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-05-10 15:10:31

Dallas is a mess.

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Comment by ibbots
2006-05-10 16:03:37

Why must Dallas die? I am moving there from Socal due to family. My profession pays about the same or more there, so actually I’ll make out well financially. I lived there for many years (about 12 years ago) so I know what I am getting into. Interested in your comments, thanks.

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Comment by Sly_Ace
2006-05-10 16:43:37

I love Dallas. I came here out of law school because the firm I worked had an office in New York and paid the same in both places. It was an easy call and I have not regretted it. No state income tax and housing is cheap. Okay, it gets hot in the summer and there is no natural beauty, but I am not a big nature guy.

I went to college in southern California and it was great fun, but I would not want to live there as an adult. Too expensive, too much traffic, too much taxes, etc.

 
Comment by ibbots
2006-05-10 18:23:35

Hey thanks for your comments, I’m law too. Yeah, it gets hot. I figure, hey, fun people can have fun in a shoebox if need be, so, how bad can it be? Also, the option of having a stay at home parent really means a lot to me and my gal.

 
Comment by Sly_Ace
2006-05-10 18:53:01

Yes, the poster who said any place is what you make it had it right. My wife and I feel lucky that she gets to stay home with our little guy.

Texas has a very good legal market. Like California, everything here is different so out of state lawyers must hire local counsel. Billing rates are lower than in California, but they are close enough such that one is much better off economically here.

 
Comment by shel
2006-05-11 22:30:03

This ’stay at home’ mom thing is interesting to me…
really, that can work anywhere if the one salary is within the professional-degree range. I think what people tend to mean is that in say Dallas you can have a one earner household that consumes similarly to a two-earner household in say CA.

 
 
Comment by John in VA
2006-05-10 16:26:46

My wife and I spent a weekend in North Dallas a couple of years ago because we were considering living there. You’re right — it’s a mess. We drove for miles through the longest continuous mass of interconnected strip malls I’ve ever seen. After about five miles we started seeing the same TGI Fridays and similar crap and for a moment we thought we had driven in a circle. But then we realized that it was like a Flintstones scene, where Fred keeps running past the same background over and over.

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Comment by LArenter
2006-05-11 07:05:22

Smart!! I totally agree! Dallas is a crap-hole! Austin is much nicer!

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Comment by Catherine
2006-05-10 14:46:38

it’s cause her state has been ruined by greed, just like my state, Arizona. I’m waiting for her to post too…lol.

 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2006-05-10 14:48:47

Dont forget our good friend Lou Manetii

Comment by ockurt
2006-05-10 14:51:49

Yeah, where in the hell is Lou and txchick?

Comment by Lou Minatti
2006-05-10 17:14:18

Yo.

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Comment by scdave
2006-05-10 14:52:10

Sorry..OT

Clouseau (DOC);…I went back and read your post several times…First time through I just grabbed what I wanted (Lawyer) and responded with my rant…I want to apoligize…I could have presented my position in a much better way…Particularly since yours was so thorough…

Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2006-05-11 04:45:18

No prob.
Anybody even loosely associated w/ RE gets a lot of flack on this board, much of it non-deserved. Like any profession, there are good guys, and bad guys. The bad guys ruin it for everybody, no matter how few there are. Especially when we’re talking people’s (perceived) necessities like housing. (housing is a necessity, owning is not, but most don’t realize that).

I know it gets old real fast…

I’ve seen some pretty senseless attacks and cheap shots vs. you, MrIncomeStream, VaInvestor, SoCalMtgGuy, NNVMtgBkr and a few others. The word “troll” is used far too often IMO… differing opinions does not necessarily mean troll. And guilt by association is not always applicable

Glad we made up! :)

clouseau

 
 
Comment by Sly_Ace
2006-05-10 16:39:40

I agree re no appreciation, but North Texas is still a good place to invest in real estate, though it has been a bit harder lately. Rents are soft because there is so much dumb out of state money buying houses to rent. I spoke with one of the leasing agents for my property manager who covers Fort Worth recently, and she told me she has several clients who will not set the rents at the recommended rate because they cannot afford to do so. They are middle class California investors who bought their first rental property in Fort Worth and they are losing their investments to foreclosure. I have three houses with leases expiring in June and I did not even consider raising the rents. In fact, I would have lowered them is the tenants had asked.

Comment by txchick57
2006-05-10 16:49:44

I can spot an “investment” rent house owned by an out of state speculator simply by the headnote on Craigslist. They have no clue how to price. All they know is what they “need” and nobody here cares what they need.

 
 
 
Comment by Gekko
2006-05-10 14:41:44

I thought more inventory meant more sales? (sarcasm) -

“‘I assure you we would have more sales if we had more inventory,’ proclaimed Mike Skahen, a board member of the Northwest MLS in reaction to April results. Just-released figures show pending sales slipped about 9 percent last month compared to a year ago.”

 
Comment by Bubble Butt
2006-05-10 14:43:45

Hey Ben:

Good Bloomberg Article

Merrill Makes Pinprick in Housing Bubble Hysteria: Joe Mysak

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_mysak&sid=apzTTjXHe7Qs

Comment by winjr
2006-05-10 19:00:04

I think it’s interesting to note that one of the states seeing the least amount of price appreciation, Indiana, recorded one the highest percentage increases in foreclosures for the first quarter of ‘06. That tells me that over-the-top consumer spending has been rampant on a nationwide level and will grind to a halt sooner, rather than later.

 
 
Comment by ockurt
2006-05-10 14:57:20

O.C. Ritz Sold for Near Peak Price
By Annette Haddad | 3:48 p.m., LAT
The $330-million purchase of Laguna Niguel’s Ritz Carlton will be one of the priciest in state history.

Check it out…

http://tinyurl.com/n6n8u

 
Comment by OCDan
2006-05-10 15:01:47

I know this is obvious, but I can’t help chiming in… Seeing these stories come in from all over the country is like watching a presidential election. It seems the Dallas precinct is now weighing in. Tragically, all these precincts, Fresno, Dallas, Medford, SD, etc. etc. are not blue or red, but black.

Comment by Karen
2006-05-10 15:05:07

I’d say the’re all red. Not republican red, but “in the red”

 
Comment by stressed_renter
2006-05-10 15:17:58

I’d say red becuase speculators are BLEEDING ;)

 
Comment by SDNewbie
2006-05-10 15:34:24

Reporting from the SD (North County) District: Open house signs as far as the eye can see. At least two per intersection.

 
 
Comment by ockurt
2006-05-10 15:05:10

More prospective home buyers cancel plans, from OC Register.

Several homebuilders have said more prospective customers backed out of home purchases in the first three months of this year than did early last year. Here’s a sampling:

Newport Beach’s William Lyon Homes said its cancellation rate for the three months ended March 31 was 28 percent, compared with 12 percent a year ago.

Standard Pacific of Irvine said its cancellation rate, excluding joint ventures, for the first quarter was 24 percent, up from 17 percent a year earlier, but down a bit from the end of 2005.

Toll Bros. of Horsham, Pa., said its cancellation rate in its second quarter ended April 30 was 8.5 percent, which, “although higher than our historic average of approximately 7 percent, is still, we believe, the lowest among the major public homebuilders.”

 
Comment by OCDan
2006-05-10 15:08:24

Those cancellations are only going to get higher nationwide and all the builders will feel the pain.

 
Comment by Alexis_in_oc
2006-05-10 15:11:23

DeepInTheHeartOf,

How do you like it there in Dallas? The cost of housing in Dallas is still reasonable relative to the median family income there. I am considering moving to Dallas, and say goodbye to the O.C. lifestyle. After growing up here all my life, it is a very difficult decision to reconcile. But the madness in the home prices has generated a frantic and stressful environment to raise a family.

Comment by txchick57
2006-05-10 15:19:01

I urge you to look at Austin instead of Dallas. Even Ft. Worth. I lived in SoCal before here. You will wish you were dead after 6 months in this hellhole. Austin is great though. Lots to do and more attuned to the California mindset.

Comment by ibbots
2006-05-10 16:30:01

well, after reading your recent posts it is clear I should simply put a gun to my head right now before I end up a miserable slug at Chili’s, j/k - those posts were funny.

Those issues you mention are all things I can deal with though, understand, I need to be there to take care of family. It isn’t a bad place to raise kids either.

Comment by txchick57
2006-05-10 16:53:21

It really isn’t a good place to raise kids, especially the places you are talking about. Consumerism and peer pressure are rampant. The Plano SD had a rash of heroin related deaths and suicides a few years ago. It is not the place I would raise kids if I had them. Fortunately, I do not.

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Comment by skip
2006-05-10 16:48:10

Ft Worth is a great town. I know a guy that commutes 1 hr by rail to his job in Dallas rather than move.

Comment by txchick57
2006-05-10 17:16:26

It has some of the best museums in the country. I love the place. You can almost feel that it is “where the West begins” as they say . ..

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Comment by rudekarl
2006-05-10 18:07:55

Lots of gang related gun play in Fort Worth - every night on the news someone else is getting gunned down.

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Comment by stressed_renter
2006-05-10 15:20:24

I am debating that too. Is there good paying jobs in Dallas? Looks like Californians are getting royally screwed :(

Comment by ibbots
2006-05-10 16:08:42

Yeah, I am moving to Dallas for some of these reasons. I have family there so that is a main motivator, but, the ability to raise a family on one income is especially attractive to us. FYI - job - I have read there are many jobs being created (not sure what type though). My own experience idicates the job market is pretty strong and wages are really good in comparison to the cost of living. Of course that stands to reason, the less desireable (weather, location, etc.) a place is, the more companies have ot pay to get people to move there, right?

 
Comment by Lou Minatti
2006-05-10 17:25:08

I don’t understand why Californians are in a rush to bail to Texas. We aren’t California and don’t want to be. If you like California so much, stay there. I hate the fact that these idiots are trying to turn parts of Texas into California. Some people pretend Austin is like California. It is not. It is a hot, humid hellhole populated by narrow-minded people who pretend to be tolerant.

Stay in California and RENT. Then after the housing market is done crashing you’ll be pre-positioned to buy.

Comment by DannyHSDad
2006-05-10 20:53:52

Good advice, Lou:

As someone who grew up in SoCal (’72-86) and lived in San Jose (’92-95), Austin (’95-06) has been pretty good for raising family but the weather is terrible [too humid for me and rains too much -- did you know that the annual rain fall is the same as London, U.K.?] and very little culture: almost all white and some pop stuff (”live music capital of the world”) but not much more. If you want multi-ethnicity or real culture like ballet or symphony or art museum, don’t come to Austin. And if you love nature, stay away since there’s no mountains or [sea] beaches nearby and summers are too hot for camping (from May to Oct) — the closest national park is 10 hours away! And the city shuts down with a little snow or ice sprinkle [about once every 2 or 3 years, like the one in Nov'05]. And we get hail and tornado and flash floods and draughts [we had them all this year '06 already]. We had our rolling black outs (like in California) 3 weeks ago, and due to the tree lovers, some people were without power for 4 days [too many oppositions to tree trimming/cutting] over this past weekend.

Oh, and the salaries in Austin are lower than Dallas or Houston but housing costs more than either one. [Or so I hear from friends and coworkers over the years who have moved from or to the two cities.]

Pluses are: the traffic is a breeze compared to Calif [and less smog, too] and it really is a small town [Austin City population passed half a million just recently]. We have lots of creeks (and green belts) and rivers and nearby lakes so water sports are good (fishing, swimming, boating).

With that said, we will miss Austin because of the friends we have made here over the years. I’ll also miss the liberal Texas laws like no [or very little] gun control and no homeschooling regulations. Ironically we’ll be moving to what some call PRK (People’s Republic of Kalifornia), a “liberal” state full of gun restrictions and onerous homeschooling rules. Sigh.

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Comment by Sly_Ace
2006-05-10 16:55:51

Unless you can afford private schools, I would not recommend Dallas proper. Like all big city school districts, the DISD is pretty bad. There are lots of suburbs, however, with excellent public schools; e.g., Plano, Coppell, Frisco.

Cost of living here is much lower than California and taxes are much less as well. As I posted earlier, I really like it here.

Comment by ibbots
2006-05-10 18:39:21

I don’t have much first hand experience with DISD although I am a product of 12 years of Dallas private schools. We could afford private one on salary without much problem although my gal will wanna work of course once the kids get to be school age. We’d live close in, Lakewood, Old East Dallas.

It is not bad place to raise kids though. Materalism, sure, but that exists everywhere. The same problems exist in most big school districts, violence, gangs, drugs, etc. Those items are going to a pressure anywhere and can be mitigated through parental involvement and guidance.

Comment by txchick57
2006-05-10 19:04:42

Lakewood is where I live. If you have to live in Dallas, it’s tolerable. Thank god for White Rock Lake to run and bike or I’d be a raving lunatic (some think I already am)

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Comment by RJMason
2006-05-11 19:34:49

I grew up in Dallas and live in Southern California now. I like both places.

Dallas is not a college town, but it has plenty of culture and things to do. I went to the theater more in Dallas than I do now in Los Angeles.

By the way, my public Dallas high school was in Newsweek last week as the #1 high school in the country. Yes, it is just some magazine writer’s ranking system based on AP tests. But still. I’m just saying.

On balance, I guess I plan to stay in California… but I would rather have a smaller house and better weather than a bigger house with hotter weather.

 
 
Comment by DeepInTheHeartOf
2006-05-10 20:49:33

Alexis,
I’ve lived in the DFW area for 20 years now. I started out in Willow Park (west of Ft. Worth), and gradually moved east, making about 10 stops until I wound up in Rockwall (east of Dallas). Personally, I enjoy where I live and will stay put until the kids are grown. I think Txchick57’s negativity on this area has as much to do about her and her personality than about the area itself.

Leaving SolCal is a big decision, and I totally understand how raising children changes what you want, and what you are comfortable with.

It is the personal things specific to you, your spouse, and kids that will probably determine if making the move will work out without major regrets. Things like leaving other family behind, etc which are hard to put a price on.

As for most other things, it is up to you to make of them what you will. Some people can be happy on $50k a year; others will always feel inadequate on $500k. However, having fiscal control and basic security is a huge factor in almost everyone’s life. The difference between having it and not is a world of stress and hurt that won’t go away. To that end, being able to comfortably afford to live in a good, safe area, in a pleasant, reliable dwelling, and still have someone stay home to raise the kids is worth a huge amount IMHO. Knowing that you could easily replace your job if it was lost, and the kids wont go hungry is another huge factor.

Re: Weather. It’s hot 4 months out of the year, and cold about 3. Right now, we’re sleeping with the windows open (it helps to have 24 trees in our yard).

Re jobs: the DFW area offers a pretty diverse array of employment, and the wages are generally good for what they buy you.

As I advised elsewhere in this thread - get a job within 25 min or less of where you live (or vice versa). Traffic is no where as bad a soCal, but it’s still a way to waste your life away. Specialty stores and restaurants are actually plentiful; just look past the chain shops and be willing to hunt around.

Once established here, it may be hard to move back. Blizzard Entertainment in Irvine, CA has tried to hire me multiple times in the last few years, and each time the numbers don’t even come close to working out (even with a 50% pay hike). My house here would be north of $2mil in Irvine (I’m told) though my mortgage payment would barely rent a big apartment there.

Thinking of buying an existing home? This area has been a buyers market for years now. Avoid HOA’s if you can.

Schools for the kids:? I’m down on all Texas Public Schools, so our kids are taking the private route. Both of my parents and my wife’s parents taught in the public schools. Nationally they are becoming a disgrace. Alternate choices abound. Texas has a *Huge* home school population. Home School Co-ops are plentiful, and suburban school districts are starting to cut deals with them to open up their facilities. Many HS curriculums are certified by Texas Universities.

Now, after getting down on TXchic57, I have to suggest that you do take her comment about looking into Austin to heart if you have the option of going there.

In either case, once coming here, I’d really recommend renting an apartment or house for 6 months. That’ll give you time to get to know the area without being locked down. Then you can make an really informed decision about where to go next.

Comment by DannyHSDad
2006-05-10 20:59:16

See my comments above about Austin. We’ve lived here ‘95-’06 and will move to SoCal in about 2 months…

 
Comment by Alexis_in_oc
2006-05-11 10:17:45

DeepInTheHeartOf,

Thank you for the insider view of Dallas, very helpful information.

 
 
 
Comment by txchick57
2006-05-10 15:49:19

A Saturday in Dallas vs. a Saturday in San Diego

Dallas San Diego

8 am Wake up to neighbor’s leaf blower Wake up to sound of ocean

10 am Go to cruddy Kroger market & Go to Trader Joe’s or OB Co-Op
fight w/fat mamas in SUVs for for cool stuff & organic produce
parking space

1 pm Give up on the day and sit in Drive to Julian or beaches or to
front of TV watching movies or Joshua Tree to go rock climbing
football or Balboa Park & museums

7 pm. Drag self to Chilis for dinner Go to cool place in LaJolla or for
of crappy corporate food fun, to Tijuana for Mexican food

10 pm Go to sleep. Read another Evening’s just getting started
chapter of Final Exit

 
Comment by John in VA
2006-05-10 16:20:37

I knew that Texas would be the California speculators’ equivalent of Napoleon’s Moscow campaign. Off they march into that vast empty plain, ill-equipped but confident of an easy conquest. Only when they arrive will they realize that they are stranded in the middle of an unforgiving land, with nothing to sustain them and a hostile local populace. Behind them lies a thousand-mile death march back home that few of them will survive. Winter in Texas is cold indeed.

Comment by txchick57
2006-05-10 16:24:52

Ben said it well once. It’s as if these out of towners think the local oafs don’t know the value of what they’re sitting on and everything is low-hanging fruit.

I would counter that after many years here by saying that one thing a Texan knows is a sucker when he sees one. Prices are jacked up big time here for the Clownifornians’ pleasure. Problem is, there’s only so many Clownifornians left with any money and so many drowning mullets all over the country dying to get bailed out.

 
Comment by NurseLiz
2006-05-10 16:42:14

Good stuff John in VA!!!! Or like Moses and his people searching for 40 years in the desert for what was only a few miles over the mountain!!!

 
 
Comment by joe
2006-05-10 16:26:49

I live in Frisco, Texas (20 miles north of Dallas) and my family and I love it here. We moved here from Phx and didn’t not like it at first. Once we had our daughter and met a few good friends we really started to like. It is all what you make it. The shed we owned in Phx was a POS that was built in the late 70’s, we built a new home in Phx for the same price we sold the dump for. The place we built here is twice the side with wood floors, pool, tons of stone and a 3 car garage. The schools are great, the roads are good and the shopping and resturants are great. Can’t beat it

Comment by Moman
2006-05-11 06:43:58

Better check your grammer!!! Just messin’ with you, glad you enjoy Texas. I’ve thought about moving there many times and plan an exploratory visit this summer.

 
 
Comment by joe
2006-05-10 16:42:04

sorry about the bad grammer

 
Comment by joe
2006-05-10 16:48:15

I am re-posting this since I feel like a total idiot after reading the first one.

I live in Frisco, Texas (20 miles north of Dallas) and my family and I love it here. We moved here from Phx and did not like it at first. Once we had our daughter and met a few good friends we really started to like. It is all what you make it. The shed we owned in Phx was a POS that was built in the late 70’s, we built a new home in Frisco for the same price we sold the dump in Phx for. The place we built here is twice the size with wood floors, pool, tons of stone and a 3 car garage. The schools are great, the roads are good and the shopping and resturants are fantastic. Can’t beat it

Comment by txchick57
2006-05-10 17:03:55

This is for Lingus. I’ve been meaning to tell him this forever.

The Chevy SLOBurban is the state car of Texas, did you know that?

This venerable SUV, also called the “unofficial state vehicle of Texas,” is a quintessential icon of a culture that proudly declares “bigger is better.” From that infamous 42-ounce steak in an Amarillo truck stop to the four-cans-of-hairspray blonde dos of Dallas to the world’s first breast implant surgery (performed in Houston), the state is a proud memorial to both the phrase and attitude: “SuperSize it!”

And here, we have fat Ray and hairy Darla. I know the creatures you are speaking of. Of course, in Texas, hairy Darla has had the moustache lasered off using a credit card to pay of course ;)

Comment by DannyHSDad
2006-05-10 21:03:02

We have a Ford Expedition and regret not buying a Suburban afterall. That extra space behind the 3rd row would have come handy many times over. Sigh…

 
 
Comment by Sly_Ace
2006-05-10 17:05:20

Yep, and it will be even better once they finish the constructon on Preston and 121.

A bit OT: a Lennar sales guy told me about a group of California investors who bought 34 houses in Little Elm (a suburb next to Frisco that is somewhat like Frisco 5-10 years ago). They insisted on using their own title company in California for some reason; some Lennar higher up flew there for the closing only to find out that they could not qualify for financing for some reason. And Lennar STILL is charging too much in that subdivision to make it worth buying a rental property. There are lots of incentives, but prices are significantly higher now than even two years ago.

Comment by txchick57
2006-05-10 17:12:46

See my comment above regarding the Texans knowing suckers when they see them.

 
Comment by mrincomestream
2006-05-10 17:53:37

LOL Little Elm I know someone taking it in the shorts there currently.

Comment by Sly_Ace
2006-05-10 18:47:18

I really like the area, but I cannot find anything to buy that will come close to yielding 1% of the purchase price in monthly rent. It may be too late; everybody knows the area will take off once the tollway gets built.

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Comment by Daryl Vu
2006-05-10 18:40:41

I will move to Texas and will pay cash for a house from selling my house up here(Washington State), it would be in the $170K to $200K, I can aford a little higher but the Texas property tax scares me, if I pay cash, will it be better (in terms of property tax, insurance..ect..?), and it won’t be in Dallas (from TXchick’s post), may be in Forthworth, Allen, Plano, Arlington, Desoto, Rockwall or so, any comments?
Thanks in advance.

Comment by txchick57
2006-05-10 18:47:34

Austin. Unless you have to live here for work reasons.

All of those places you mentioned are Dallas suburbs. If I had to choose one, it would be DeSoto which is very pretty. However, your minority tolerance has to be high. I lived down that way for 6 years (Cedar Hill) and loved it. That was the closest I ever came to buying something here.

 
Comment by charbroiledintx
2006-05-10 19:47:30

I live in Ovilla which is near Cedar Hill and like it. Unlike Frisco it has no traffic and actual land and trees instead of concrete. I work in downtown dallas and my commute is 30 minutes.

I have lived in California in the past and I like Ovilla/Dallas other than the heat in the summer.

Comment by txchick57
2006-05-11 02:24:50

I also like Ovilla. Very pretty area.

And for the other guy, no, my dislike of Dallas is not me and my personality. I wish I did like it. It’s cheaper to live here than in the places I do like. But as I’ve said before, it’s cheaper for a reason. It’s a truly odious place to have to live. And I know whereof I speak, having been stuck here for over 15 years. However, the good news is, we’re departing for Tucson very shortly.

 
 
Comment by DeepInTheHeartOf
2006-05-10 20:08:36

Daryl,
A big question is: Where will you be working? Out of your home or retired? then it doesn’t matter and hooray for you.

If not, minimizing the time spent commuting to and from work is something I would recommend. I would encourage you to keep your commute (one way) to under 25 minutes or so. From pretty much anywhere you could work, there will be some nice and not so nice areas within that driving distance. Cost may be an issue in some areas, not so much in others.

I’m spoiled because I never commute during rush hour, which saves an amazing amount of wear and tear on my psyche.

From Ft.Worth to Rockwall spans three counties (four if you live west of Ft Worth in someplace like Alma or Willow Park) and ~80 miles, so that’s a huge range to choose from.

Myself, I live in Rockwall, about 75 yards from lake Ray Hubbard. Personally, being able to see water from inside the house or out on the deck is comforting. Know what makes you happy, and rent an apt the first 6 months — it will give you time to scout out and find a place that you will enjoy.

Comment by ibbots
2006-05-10 20:54:03

do you commute to downtown dallas? From Rockwall, it looks like one could go to the downtown garland dart rail station if they wanted to avoind driving.

 
 
Comment by DannyHSDad
2006-05-10 21:12:33

Texas is huge: where do you want to live? Even in Austin (Central Texas) you can live on the east side where the land is relatively flat or the west in the hill country. You can live with lots of land few miles out of town [even under 200K] and if you get farm animals you can even get agricultural tax exemption [a very good deal, if you're into animal husbandry].

See also my other comments above….

 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-05-10 22:30:52

After the ridiculous costs found in CA, ANYWHERE is more appealing to me than CA (although weather is nice). I find ABQ to my liking. Visited Dallas about 5 yrs ago. It was flat, and a lot of traffic. But the restaurants were plentiful, great food, and people seemed very pleasant and helpful. More so than CA. Don’t invest in something you do not understand (including a different housing market), unless you want to lose your money. No sympathy for the Klownifornians buying stuff sight unseen, and will be left holding the bag.

A property is only worth what someone will pay for it. I wouldn’t care if someone was HELOC’d to death. That would be their problem. Market price will prevail. Some gained, and many will lose.

Comment by Hail the chimp
2006-05-11 05:05:07

Last night, a couple of friends of mine in LA were telling me they somehow accumulated $1 million of investment money (with no personal out-of-pocket) to buy a luxury apartment building in Dallas. I told them that I thought nobody in Dallas rented since the housing was so cheap. They said it would be a great investment since they didn’t have to put any money out of their own pocket into it. I just shrugged.

 
 
Comment by Backstage
2006-06-09 14:23:16

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