Bits Bucket for June 18, 2011
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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None of our long-term posters except MikeinBend have lost or soon will lose their houses. Did the HBB help with that? I didn’t go bigger and add exposure. What is the dollar amount Ben has saved us? Millions? Billions? Skin cancer from buying on the Florida Coast?
Tens of millions. It was very fun in the peak days (2006 or so) when we were telling stories of people talking down to us renters.
The other day I noticed a gated condo community with attached garages in my Phoenix neighborhood is getting a desperate seller. They took a condo off the market in August of 2010 at $220,000 and it is now listed at $125,000. It’s about 1600 square feet. $79 per foot.
“$79 per foot”
That actually sounds quite affordable, with little downside risk.
By contrast, the median list price per square foot in our zip code (92127 — Rancho Bernardo West, San Diego) is $248, for a 4br 2ba 1933 sq ft home in Westwood, which was John Albert Gardner III’s last neighborhood before he went back to prison and also was a hard-hit area in the Fall 2007 Witch Creek fire.
Yeah the condo place caught my eye years ago. The neighborhood itself is quiet but there is a freeway beyond the condo complex across the street. There is no other gated condo complex that I know of in that part of Phoenix.
I disagree with your “little downside risk” assessment. I am familiar with that area and, pre-bubble, one could easily buy a 4 bedroom, 2000 square foot house on a 12000 square foot lot for $79 per foot. That attached product, with HOA’s, is overpriced.
The attraction of the HBB to me was not to persuade me to do something I would not think of doing in the first place but rather to reaffirm in my mind that what I was doing was the right thing to do.
When the world starts to go crazy then one needs to find a way to understand what drives this craziness and then maybe find a way to cope and (gasp) even profit. The HBB offered such a way to understand.
It’s probably somehow illegal in some high muckamuck bankster’s mind for us to openly discuss economic reality in a forum like this.
HBB and Patrick’s site helped me understand what was going on with the crazy market back in 2007. I knew something was wrong with the prices, and these sites had links and data already dug out and displayed with great commentary. While I was unable to convince my wife to keep renting indefinitely, she did agree to postpone it for several years, and to let me lowball like a maniac when we did go shopping.
If I’d bought my house in 2007, I’d have had to spend at least 40% more.
HBB and it’s sister site across the pond, house price crash dot co dot uk, have saved me from probable foreclosure, bankruptcy and untold shame and pain. Been reading both since spring 2005. Thanks, Ben! I wonder how Las Vegas Landlord is doing?
I still miss Olygal, may she rest in peace. I also miss NYCboy, who wasn’t really a NYC boy after all. And the fact that aladisane turned out to be at least partially right. Nonetheless, happy to be here ant to be able to tell my budding teenagers: Daddy doesn’t have to declare bankruptcy! Thanks to all on this board and to its founder Ben Jones! - LLR
I can’t say that the HBB saved me from making a costly financial error, as even without the blog I knew something was deeply wrong when home prices soared out of all proportion to either the quality of the home or the median ability to prudently afford it. Also I was personally aware of people I knew to be financially irresponsible borrowing insane amounts of money for houses they clearly couldn’t afford. To me, the chief benefit of the HBB is realizing there were and are isolated pockets of sanity and intelligence among the zombie-like mindlessness of the herd creatures called the American public. That has been very comforting in these times we live in.
I bought in 2007 in Canada before discovering this blog. Since our bubble is delayed in deflating or popping, I’ve somewhat gotten out. While I still own, I’ve reduced my exposure to realestate recently. The amount of money I’ll save isn’t major, but the amount of sanity I’ll save when it comes time to sell later will be big. I’ll undercut the competition and sell in what I expect to be a crappy market, but I’ll be able to afford it and I’ll understand what is really going on.
Dear HBBers,
I’ve been reading this blog since its very, very beginning. I remember many of the old posters, and have enjoyed reading your comments over the years. I’ve enjoyed the links from PB, the family anecdotes of AZ slim, and the candid updates from Mikeinbend.
So I wanted to give you all an update of my own situation, for the purposes of sharing local market information and all that.
In 1995 I bought a 1-bed in Manhattan for $62K. At that time, it had been sitting empty for over a year with no interest. It was a foreclosure from the 80s bubble, and it was listed for half of it’s peak bubble price a decade earlier.
The ONLY reason I bought it was because the mortgage would be cheaper than comparable rent, and rents were going up faster than my meager wages, so I needed to take some kind of action. My maintenance and mortgage at that time was around $800. Mortages were very tough to get back then, and rates were around 7%.
Almost immediately prices took off. NYC changed big time. I started looking at this blog because I was sure we were in a bubble. I sold the place for $530K, paid off my loan, and put the cash with a financial investor who recommended diversification across many different kinds of industries and assets.
My plan at the time was to pretend I never made the windfall, live in a rental, and retire on the investments when I turned 60.
Well, here’s what happened. I could only afford rent in an apartment that added an hour each way to my commute. My health insurance kept going up, and my rent was double what I had been paying. The investments grew with the markets, but I found that I had to pull money out every month just to cover my living costs. I was not living large, in fact I was as frugal as I’d ever been. But rent in NYC is harsh, and health insurance was killing me. I realized we had to leave.
I took a job teaching English in Japan. (No, AZ Slim, they’re not all brats like your friend said. Many students here work very, very hard and they all clean the school together. We have a lot to learn from them.)
That was three years ago. The market tanked, I lost half my investments, which put me down 25% from my big payday when I sold. I was pretty bummed. I also missed my friends in NYC, and I watched as that RE market hardly moved. In fact, in NYC there are people paying huge bucks to live in some pretty crappy areas.
I started plotting a return to the US, but I didn’t know what to do, or how to do it. My professional network is in NYC, as is my wife’s. We got in touch with a great realtor, (I know you’ll find this hard to believe), who gave us excellent and honest advice. He basically told us that on our budget we would have a hard time making anything work.
Our investments slowly recovered, meanwhile, back to about what we had to begin with. Our gains never recovered, but we were back to breakeven anyway, maybe a bit better.
I started paying attention to Oxide’s point, that now there seem to be two Americas: where the jobs are, and where the cheap houses are. My wife has a job skill that pays fairly well, but is only viable in New York City or LA.
We started thinking about buying again. Not because rents are cheaper than owning, like last time, but because we could not afford to rent unless we spent down our savings, but if we bought a place outright with all our money, we could cover the monthly carrying costs.
So we decided to buy again. We lucked out and found a 1-bed in Manhattan again for $375K. We paid cash, which helped us get a deal. It’s almost all of our money, but our monthly costs are $500 a month, which we can cover on just about any kind of job.
So we’re going back. We might be going into a new set of problems, it seems likely that our apartment will lose value over time, but we’re simply trying to find a way to live in a place we like near friends with minimum pressure.
Like many HBBers, we’re frugal and we don’t need much to enjoy life. We have a son, but we’re used to sharing a small space. We’ll be on the Lower East Side in a building with garage parking and bike storage, so our quality of life will actually be better than it was.
I know many of you wouldn’t live in NYC if someone paid you, and I respect that. But for us it’s home. I just didn’t have the heart to watch my investments go up and down. Every discussion online seemed to be some version of, “If you don’t put your money into X, you’re screwed.” X seems to change from gold, to bonds, to stocks, to real estate, to cash, to bullets and a bunker, to Brazilian bonds, to you name it. I couldn’t take the heart palpitations.
So now I’ve got a tiny amount of IRAs, low monthly costs, and I’ll be back to working and socking something away for when I get older. Time will only tell if I made a good decision, and I have to admit, every break I’ve gotten up till now has been totally undeserved. I’ve gotten lucky a couple of times, but that’s the extent of it.
I’m sorry to bore you with this epic tale, but I read the blog from Japan, and you are all sleeping, so I never get to jump into the fray. This is my “pent-up demand” post, and I wanted to give you all insight into the mind of a knife-catcher. Thanks for all your entertaining posts. (X-GS, congrats on the job. I always love how you’re keeping folks honest on here.)
I’ll let you know how things turn out.
Welcome back to NY Knockwurst. Congratulations on having a place to live without the issues of debt. Doing what you want to do with your life is huge.
To add to Oxide’s idea, I’d submit that the two economies are the one where people want to work making stuff or doing things that can be sold, and the command economy of the FedGov/Wall Street partnership. In the NY/DC corridor, things will be best as long as the autocrats are unrestrained.
Thanks, Knock, there are my favorite kinds of updates. I love reading about other people’s housing/family/work situations.
I think it helps all of us compare the various pieces to see where things do/don’t fit.
That was a great catch-up post. Regardless of how your investments or your decisions turn out, when you look back on your life, you should give yourself a pat on the back for having rolled with the punches along the way and for experiencing an interesting swath of the worlds’ peoples and cultures in the process.
As for living in NYC, I used to believe I could not bear to live there, but the last time I was there (2005, I believe), I actually took the impression that it had become much more livable in recent years than when I visited in the early-1980s. And so long as NYC is where your heart is, you are in the right place, provided you don’t go broke staying there.
So, to be clear,… after all this chao$ on a spinning planet (somehow life existing on just the God’s must be crazy allotted amount of tossed sunlight) …you have you wife, your kid & your bicycles. x3 Cheers!!!
Hwy plays theme from Monk: “It’s a jungle out there…”
Good for you Knockwurst…I think you made a sound move…Your moving back to a place that you have friends and business contacts and most importantly that you enjoy…Good luck to you and your family…
$350k for even a small one bedroom place seems cheap for Manhattan. But then you got a kid who will need his or her own room as a teen. I am happy for you though. So much to do in Manhattan. And no need for a car.
Thank you for the compliment, knockwurst.
Paying for a house outright is one of the best things you can do, IMO. I believe I would have felt that way in the heyday of 2005. Even if you take a loss, it’s just that, a loss. You won’t go bankrupt, and IMO there is a monetary value to peace of mind that comes without being in debt.
Against the tenets of HBB, I will likely start looking for a house in the late fall or early spring of this year. Rents are just too high here Where The Jobs Are, and I don’t expect them to stay the same or decrease, I want to move each year. I don’t expect prices to drop much more. Instead, what I really want is more selection.
I’m sorry, I mean that the only way I could maintain current rent would be to move each year and take advantage of the free months.
For the rent I’m paying now, I could buy a house 3.5x my income. My price range is about 2.5x.
When the market tanked; we had to sell our free and clear Utah house at 100k loss. Still happy to have sold it in 2009 for 25% off what we paid.
Allowed us to still keep a starter home (paid for); that has a ROI of about 5%, TI+maintainance. No P no I; that is a relief to be sure.
Housing has been the only business I know since my back seized my career in organic farming. For 15 years we managed to book some profit from our housing investments; and had roofs over our heads at the same time.
so, even facing foreclosure on my wife’s home, I remain a landlord on our paid for house while we wait on the bank to take ownership whenever they feel like it. Supposed to happen in Nov 10, then Mar 11, now August.
anyone have any speculation on which move would allow us to stay free longer(I know put on the kevlar suit to avoid flamage). Pay the HOAs; or leave them unpaid in order to have one more bill for the bank to pay after they repossess?
We actually paid them anyway so it’s really just a hypothetical regarding paying things like taxes or HOAs. We paid so my wife can use the gym to work out and kids can swim; also we used it in the past as a vacation rental; amenities are key to the weekenders. One summer we pulled in 8k while camping in our membership campground. However; that was when we paid her mortgage; so now I suppose renting it out would be unscruplous in some way.
But since my wife and all the other accidental landlords still technically own their properties, as infuriating as it could be to the renter; shouldn’t they be able to do whatever they want with it until the bank takes it? Especially those who practically beg for the foreclosure to be executed and are making the best of it meanwhile. I would consider charging well under market rent; but rent it out we will, even if only for a few weekends. We live on a golf resort BTW; but 1.5 miles from the greens.
A lived in home also preserves a neighborhood in terms of desirabilty, safety, and $$ value. Thoughts? I may dare peek back at this post later to see who I may have peeved!
MinB
You don’t peeve me. You should stay there forever if you can. The banks already f’ed us all, at least you can get some housing out of it.
The HOA question depends on your HOA. If they are aggressive than pay, if not, let it ride.
I’m jealous!
Thank you so much for sharing this story. It sound as though your rationality will see you and your family through all the weirdness– AND you’ll have all these wonderful experiences to share over the years. Good for you!
absolutely, the insight here has been better than any source available.
Turn out the BLUE light, the party’s over.
Kmart lays off 700 appliance workers
NEW YORK (AP) — The parent of Kmart stores is laying off 700 employees working in Kmart’s appliance departments as it changes how the stores sell refrigerators, ovens and other appliances.
Kmart spokesman Chris Brathwaite says the move will allow customers to check out appliances at any register rather than going to a dedicated register for appliances. But there also won’t be any specialized appliance-only staff people on hand near appliances. Instead, all Kmart staffers are being trained to answer questions about appliances.
Instead, all Kmart staffers are being trained to answer questions about appliances.
I’m sure this business will work as well as Circuit City did after it canned its best (read: highest paid) salespeople.
I regularly receive laughable advice at Best Buy. It pays big dividends to do your own research on CNET, read amazon reviews etc to find the real story on products. This is in CA, YMMV. Home of the surliest and laziest customer service/workers I have ever seen in the US. Maybe it’s just the Coachella valley. Maybe it’s the attitude of corporate management accepting the lowest common denominator worker and paying in kind. Maybe I’m turning into a grump…
Interestingly enough I have also received poor information from car dealerships over the years. I realize the salespeople are likely transient in nature but knowing whether I4/V6/V8 options are available, 4wd/Awd etc is part and parcel of knowing a relatively small product line. Unacceptable when I’m the one explaining the car’s features!
I’ve had a few really good people help me at BB (when I bought a digital camera for example) but, in aggregate, the message I get from their salespeople is, “I know I didn’t really answer your question. So, do you want to buy the warranty plan?”
My experience has been they pretend they know what they’re talking about but don’t. They sometimes seem earnest enough but they’re factually challenged. Caveat emptor.
Internet reviews are the bomb! You have to have a good BS detector to figure which are from disgruntled perpetual grouches, or from the cheerleaders pretending to be customers, or the honest ones. But they tend to pay off.
The airline I fly has some wine “discount” club that you can join after you fly 35,000 miles for the calendar year. At face value, that is BS in itself since by “discount” that means you have to spend some bucks anyway to buy wine. Regardless I googled the wine club for reviews. Found some. All of them bad reviews. Basically the wine you get is low grade compared to what you get for grocery store price to buy Napa varieties. Some discount! What a chintzy thing for my airline I’ve been a member of for sixteen years to do to its frequent fliers. They must think we are financial dumba$$es.
Since I am currently getting my travel tax break, I can afford to splurge on wines. I find several on line reviews, particularly from Wine Spectator, and I go to where I can get the most bang for the buck. You usually cannot go wrong with Silver Oak. I found Tampa’s Whole Foods has a good selection of wines at a variety of prices. Of course, they have wines on sale at “half off” and probably raise the price of wine 90%, then cut that by 50% to get the half off. But even so, the half off prices are reasonable. Silver Oak Napa Cabernet Sauvignon 2005 (next year I will be in the Two Buck Chuck mode perhaps).
I also tend to use apartment reviews and still have to use my BS detector to determine the actual rating, but still find them useful. My current Tampa digs are better than what the reviews were. There was only one incident of a rotten neighbor on my floor a month ago out of the four months I lived in the Tampa place. That was a visitor to the neighbor. It’s kind of ghetto in modern surroundings, but I mask it all out by staying away from the scum. My secret is to insist on a top floor unit whereever I go so there is no stomping from above, no music from above, etc.
The on-line reviews have saved me a lot of anguish.
There used to be a rottenneighbor.com site but was taken down. I was disappointed. Many other people were disappointed when the site was dismantled.
Bila, et al–
“Decoy’ zin. Duckhorn’s second pressing. Damned decent value at 1/3 the price of the Big Label.
No indioadjacent, it’s not you, it’s corporate.
You’re not going to get professionals for $12hr.(which is the MAX they make at Worst Buy) and less than 40hrs a week. And no one is going to go the extra mile without raises.
Marie Antoinette didn’t get it either.
Circuit City stopped selling appliances a few years before thier demise because the margins were too thin, but it brought a lot of families into thier stores.
Way OT, but always good to get HBB braintrust input: In my new position (starts July 5th), I will be at the crossroads of many political, economic, social etc. pressures. I’m pretty good with the diplomatic thing, but I’m looking for any pointers you may have. There is a lot of experience on this board.
A few things that have gotten me this far:
1. No guesswork. Facts.
2. Discuss issues not people
3. Joke around, but no when to stop
Muggy, There’s know reason to feel impotent. Those folks are people, just like you. I’m sure you’ll have know problem.
Very funny Blue.
Just giving you a traditional NY hello Muggy. Hey, you guys going to visit Rochester this summer?
Yes, we should try to meet up if you’re still game… we’ll be there the last week of July through first week of August. I don’t have any family in Skaneateles now so Rochester, Syracuse, and Gardiner (downstate) are the places we’re planning to visit. I might hit NYC for a night or two with my high school buds.
At the very least we should do lunch somewhere in the middle (maybe Canandaigua?). Maybe an all out upstate meetup with CarrieAnn? Anyone else?
I heard Thendara closed. NO!
I would love to meet up with you guys. Please keep me posted on developments.
“Thendara closed. NO!”
Yes. Something to do with discovering the business was only seasonal.
Yes, but the invitation was for a dinner cruise. Those two weeks should see my boat cruising around the 1000 Islands. Not exactly inbetween, but if you guys are game, a day on the river, burgers (or whatever) on the stern grill and a fully stocked icechest would be in the works.
I’m just finishing putting a new starboard engine in, so who knows, I may or may not make it away from the dock!
We’ll have to be in touch as we get closer to those dates…
If thou know thyself first, then no harm shall befall thee.
Know the other guy as well.
What does a great salesman do? He learns just what it is the other guy needs, then he gives it to him.
If the other guy need affirmation then the salesman gives him affirmation.
Does he need sympathy? Yes? Then he gives him sympathy.
Q. So how does he discover what the other guy needs?
A. He listens with his ears and watches with his eyes. And if his ears gives him one message and his eyes gives him another message then he goes with his eyes.
Isolate the concerns, listen more than you speak, let them do most of the talking, the more they talk the more they will like you, give genuine compliments , get minor agreements and then lead them to the right decision.
Most great salesmen I knew where just plain lucky. If they had to rely on their social skills they would have starved long ago.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WCcKIkMp8Y
The David Mamet gem “GlennGary Glenn Ross” is the ultimate primer on selling (and the underhandedness of real estate “professionals”).
“…at the crossroads of many political, economic, social etc. pressures.”
Sounds like the kind of work I enjoy: Challenging and interesting.
Good luck!
“3. Joke around, but no [sic] when to stop”
Better have another coffee.
Hang on to your new job with your all your might?
The US is quickly solidifying into the haves and the have nots with the middle class as an ever shrinking minority that doesn’t realize how close they are to joining the have nots in the blink of an eye.
Please keep posting this.
Class war is the only solution. Sorry, rich people, but you will be killed and eaten.
Earth can’t support 7 or 10 billion. So 7 billion will eat the richest 100 million, then fight and starve themselves down to less than 1 billion.
And yes, you will share some cake with Marie Antionette…
“Sorry, rich people, but you will be killed and eaten.”
Eaten too?
We have six months basic expenses in savings and some cash in the safety box, a 12-gauge shotgun in a locked steel box in the garage (kids), but a recipe?…don’t have one of those.
Here’s another one we may offer on:
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/8250-140th-St_Seminole_FL_33776_M68679-58675?ex=ORFL_U7500786&mlslid=U7500786
I suspect we will be doing this for 2-5 years (writing low offers on houses (that get rejected) as owners chase the market down).
House looks nice.
How insulting will your offer be?
I made the joke to my realtor (last year) that I want the sellers to hang themselves when they see my offer. Then right after that, the guy who accepted our offer died unexpectedly (in his 50’s). So, in short, I don’t use my dark humor anymore.
As for this house, I want the owners to see my offer and hang themselves.
O.k., seriously though, my realtor lives in this corner of Pinellas and I think he’d get some chit from the ‘hood, so I don’t know if he will follow through, but I’d say offer $150k.
I like it Muggy…Lots of windows & light…That house could show much better with just a bit of work…Case out those windows and add plantation shutters…Pull the small base and put in 3 1/2 inch…Add 4 1/2 inch crown and use two paint colors (ceiling & walls)…
I was thinking a little less. Obviously the garage is counted in the 2700 sq ft. Around here, we don’t call parking “living space”. Of course, it does seem to be nestled in amongst the bedrooms. Hang em high!
That would list for $400K in my neck of the woods.
Muggy,
Hi. Please be patient. Don’t buy. Wait one year then start looking again. It will change your perspective. You might get a house an affordable price but will the neighborhood change? Will you have better job prospects from your promtion?
I appreciate the concern. We aren’t on the brink. If the offer is declined we won’t keep looking.
Neighborhoods in FL on mean so much anyway, and we’ve determined Seminole is about as good as it gets, all things considered.
If I was looking in Seminole then I’d want a house with relatively easy access to the Pinellas Trail.
Or Lake Seminole Park. Way in the back of Lake Seminole Park there was a nature trail that was great for bike riding and roller blading. It had great shade cover from the trees. I imagine it’s still there.
How is the 2012 presidential election shaping up?
Wednesday, Jun 15, 2011 20:16 ET
The mirage of the Obama coalition
Can he reassemble the diverse coalition of lefties and Obamacans who fell in love with a “Rorshach test” in 2008?
By Joan Walsh
…
Facing 2012, the president also has to correct the impression that he’s the candidate of Wall Street, and that the TARP program that saved the banking system did so by coddling and bailing out bankers who took reckless risks with other people’s money. A couple of data points from CNN’s 2010 congressional exit polls stay with me, because they were shocking. Among the third of voters who blamed Wall Street for the nation’s economic woes — which should have been good news for Democrats — 57 percent voted Republican. Among those who were “very worried” about economic conditions, 68 percent voted Republican. While TARP was a bipartisan program, it’s widely associated with Obama and the Democrats. The fact that so many current and former Goldman Sachs bankers helped craft it made people distrust it. With reason: When bailing out AIG and taking on banks’ risky mortgages, Geithner gave them full-dollar value on their “losses,” while homeowners continued to lose their homes. The administration opposed efforts to permit bankruptcy judges to modify the terms of mortgages, or to impose a moratorium on foreclosures. Too many people on the left and right believe, not without reason, that the White House let the bankers rig the rules of the game to ensure they remained winners, and others lost. We know that Republicans tagged Democrats, unfairly, as the party of the undeserving poor in the 1960s and 70s; now we risk seeming like the party of the undeserving rich, too.
Finally, it doesn’t help that the president raised more money from Wall Street in 2008 than John McCain did, or that overall, Democrats got far more contributions from Wall Street than Republicans did that year ($88 million to $67 million). Of course, Wall Street tycoons are furious with Obama for even moderate attempts at financial regulatory reform: The New York Times revealed energetic efforts by the president and his campaign team to woo back petulant Wall Street donors with lavish dinners and special meetings. In a case of bad timing, the next day the campaign sent emails to its small-donor list coming “from” Barack Obama himself, with the subject “Dinner?” The president announced a lottery for donors who give as little as $5 to win a small dinner with him. It was a nice populist touch, but it contrasted sharply with his outreach to the wealthy, and by comparison, it might have sounded stingy.
…
A couple of evenings ago, I was talking with a dyed-in-the-wool liberal friend. Her business and personal lives aren’t going well, and her beaten-up finances have gotten to the point where she had to drop health insurance. To make matters worse, she has some health issues that need ongoing care.
Anyway, my friend is a lot more disappointed in Obama than I am. And that’s really saying something.
My friend was quite struck by the Mitt Romney “I’m not a bump in the road!” commercial. To the point where she may vote for him instead of Obama.
Though Romney has issues to overcome in order to make himself electable, I believe he is well qualified to lead the country. I can’t say at this point whether I would vote for him in a 1-on-1 against Obama.
If there were no party baggage with either one that’s kind of where I’d be. As it is I may not be able to stomach voting for either one. I’m still dreaming of the Kucinich/Paul ticket somebody mentioned earlier.
Carl, I’m about 80% sure at this point that Paul-Kucinich or vice-versa will be my write-in vote. I can’t stand to go along with voting “least worst” anymore.
And because the popular Republicrat choices no longer bear differentiation from one another, I no longer see voting one’s conscience as a throw away vote.
And because the popular Republicrat choices no longer bear differentiation from one another, I no longer see voting one’s conscience as a throw away vote.
Somebody (your cue, eco) will probably point out that they are different. Each seems to have about 30% good and 70% bad, IMO, and there seems to be little overlap on their 30 percents. So yes, if you are a one issue voter you may get lucky and find that your issue falls into one of the sides’ 30%. If you care about lots of things, I think you’ll find them both pretty distasteful.
I’ll vote for Romney before I’d vote for Obama again. Obama has failed miserably. There was a window of opportunity for him to hammer Wall St., and prosecute and jail the perpetrators of this economic collapse, but he carried on right where Bush left off, and f**ked this country in the name of greed and corruption. Goodbye, Obama, you lost all of us swing voters who gave you the opportunity in the first place.
It warms my heart every time some hope ‘n change dupe, especially the liberal True Believer types, gets mugged by reality.
I view it no differently than hiring an employee. I make the best decision I can based upon all the criteria available to me. Sometimes it doesn’t work out, in which case I fire them. I will be firing Obama this next election, and moving on from the mistake.
Romney is doing his best to back pedal from the healthcare initiatives he put in place while governor.
I bet by election time he will be in favor of bringing back pre-exiting condition clauses so your friend will still be in bad shape.
Romney is electable in the general election. I have my doubts that he can survive the Republican primaries.
It is unfortunate that our 2 party system has evolved to the point that both parties pander to their more extreme factions.
‘When bailing out AIG and taking on banks’ risky mortgages, Geithner gave them full-dollar value on their “losses,” while homeowners continued to lose their homes.’
Small wonder Wall Street cleaned up in the wake of the Fall 2008 financial disaster, while Main Street grew accustomed to life under the bus.
Main Street voted for the Republicrats who threw them under the bus. Never forget that.
Look at the ballots in most states. There were no other choices.
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/contrib.php?cycle=2008&cid=N00005906
Compare Ron Paul’s top donors (who gave very modest amounts) to the Who’s Who of financial predators who owned, er, donated to Obama and McCain.
“injectconjured”
I had to go back to the article to double-check the spelling of that word.
Barron’s Cover | MONDAY, JUNE 6, 2011
The World After QE2
By MICHAEL SANTOLI | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
Despite investors’ worries, the markets and economy won’t be doomed when the Fed’s massive stimulus program ends.
The ripest source of Wall Street chatter, investor anxiety and pundit prognostication these days is the impending end of the Federal Reserve’s second “quantitative-easing” program on June 30. By then, the central bank will have bought $600 billion in Treasury securities to help fund the federal deficit and injectconjured money into the financial system. QE2, launched last autumn, follows what’s now called QE1—when the bank soaked up $1 trillion-plus in mostly mortgage-backed securities—from late 2008 through March 31, 2010.
Just how much impact QE2 has had and how its demise will affect the nation are matters of debate. But it’s clear that the Fed won’t pull the plug abruptly. While the central bank will cease enlarging its balance sheet (now $2.8 trillion, up from around $900 billion before the 2008 financial crisis), the bank will keep it stable by reinvesting interest payments and principal from maturing securities, until the economy looks to be on firmer footing.
Also, hundreds of billions of dollars that the Fed’s policies added to U.S. banks’ coffers will be sloshing around for years, available for use as the economy expands. Also clear: A QE3 is unlikely, even though last week’s disappointing data on housing, manufacturing, job growth and consumer confidence kicked up the predictable chorus calling for exactly that. Economic numbers, inflation data and financial conditions probably would have to stay dismal for many months for Fed chief Ben Bernanke to launch a third bout of pump-priming.
Ethan Harris, chief economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, notes that Bernanke embarked upon QE2 with more reluctance than most investors recall. His now (in)famous Jackson Hole, Wyo., speech on Aug. 27 noted the drawbacks as well as the benefits of such an effort. Then, Harris adds, “It took another few months of soft data to cement the case” for QE2.
In typical fashion, stock investors are dreaming of more candy, while bondholders fret over the cavities and calories that more stimulus could cause. Harris says that equity types are asking when QE3 will come, fixed-income investors when the Fed will tighten monetary policy. His answer to both: “Not this year.”
…
Inventory of South Florida homes for sale falls, as buyers zero in on Palm Beach County
By Kimberly Miller Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 4:39 p.m. Thursday, June 16, 2011
About 49,900 residential properties in Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties were listed for resale as of June 13, according to a report today from the Miami-based consultancy group Condo Vultures.
That’s less than half of the nearly 108,000 homes for sale in November 2008.
———————————————————————-
Repossessions in Palm Beach County up sharply from last year
By Kimberly Miller Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 8:19 a.m. Thursday, June 16, 2011
CEO of RealtyTrac. “This pattern provides evidence that lenders are somewhat unevenly pushing batches of bad loans through foreclosure as they overhaul their paperwork and procedures and as they determine that some local markets are able to absorb more foreclosure inventory.”
I just came across this four-year-old article which reveals what BB was saying about the subprime crisis back in 2007.
How did that ‘prediction’ turn out for him?
P.S. This article was penned right around the time I became convinced a historic panic was underway. This should have been quite obvious to anyone who noticed the complete vaporization of the subprime lending industry in the first half of 2007.
Adviser Soapbox
Five Reasons Not To Panic
Jeffrey Kleintop, LPL Financial 07.30.07, 12:10 PM ET
This is just another 5% to 7% pullback, like many we’ve seen over the past three years. The recent decline may be the next pullback.
…
Fourth, subprime losses are unlikely to cause financial crisis. Last week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that credit losses related to the sub-prime lending meltdown could ultimately total $50 billion to $100 billion. How bad is this? Is it devastating for the financial sector? Could it be the crisis that ends this business cycle? We don’t think so.
…
Why did they lie? Why are they still lying?
Let’s put this bullshit to rest that “it was worse than anyone imagined”. Dumbasses like me and we knew and I’m just a dumb construction guy.
Let’s stop candy coating and call it what it is. It’s lying. Ben Bernanke is a liar. For a moment shut your mind from all of it and then walk back into the room of reality and find someone….. anyone…. even a deckhand or yeoman who is telling the truth.
Stop the lies.
“…just a dumb construction guy.”
Don’t knock what you learn from earning a living in the real world. My impression is that the average man living on Main Street often has a better grasp of real world economics than the theoretical economist geniuses who populate the Ivory Tower.
Thanks Stucco.
We are looking at houses around here for my parents to purchase; we can then move into it or rent it out; our choice. In this search I have noticed attracively priced (107k in this case) offered by Freddie Mac thru local agents, who provide the BPO, and seemingly cherry pick their buyers. So a forecosure they may refuse to show it to you even though they are obligated by law to show available homes. But they stall enough to get the buyers of their choice taking advantage of their BPOs; general public buyers have little chance at buying a house from Freddie due to the local broker massaging the price and picking the buyers.
I called a guy who represents Freddie on their homesteps program(I know he is shyster, darned criminal). Wanted to see a house that finally ended up available thru Fannie. We will not allow my parents to buy a house sight unseen, so we wanted to see it.
Realtor guy first tells me there is another offer, but he could get me in on the action still. Called me back later to see if I was still interested in making an offer, nevermind seeing the place. I responded, “No. You told me there was another offer, so nevermind. He responded, yes there is another offer but I have not submitted it yet.
Sounds dam unscrupulous, disingenuous, and insulting all at once. We had a realtor report this same guy to the board of Realtors last year for refusing to show us an active Freddie listing; saying it was not available; but our agent noticed it was still available and called in a complaint against this piece of work.
But he is still in business; I think he is saving the best priced/condition places for his friends(as BPO he sets the price as well), and proceeds to sell the good ones to the buyers of his choosing, not being fair about it at all; and dumping the ugly foreclosures on the end using buyers. Definite collusion going on with regards to Freddie’s brokers and the parties they are selling to.
They have to lie. It’s called “pump and dump.”
If they didn’t lie, their house of cards would collapse ans so would their power, something no self respecting psychopath can allow to happen.
What does anyone expect BB to say? That we are doomed?
He’s Chairman of the Federal Reserve. He has to talk up the economy, he has to downplay the situation.
He has to do this because he has to keep hope alive.
The System is at the point where it is running on hope, it’s running on Extend & Pretend, Pray & Delay - all of which is based on hope.
BB has to lie; It’s his job.
Combo,
It doesn’t matter anymore. You posted a lame and worn out excuse that we’ve heard over and over again. The world is Weinerized and Vitterized. Implosion is the end result of keeping facts from photons.
This isn’t an excuse, it’s an explanation. BB lies because he has to lie. Part of his job is to lie.
Does anyone question whether defense attorneys lie when they are asked if the client they are defending actually did the crime they are accused of? No? Then why is that?
It is because they are expected to lie.
How about car salesman? If you walk onto a car lot and ask a salesman if you should buy this car at this price, what sort of answer should you expect to get?
Yep. People don’t realize that these people are professional liars. It’s just what they do. Lying is in their job description. But it’s up to us to seek out the truth.
I find all this incredibly cynical. Yes it’s reality, but it’s hard to accept and I’ve been slowly accepting and digesting over the past 7 years the complicated truth that our leaders are sociopaths and liars.
Period.
Real leaders, honest leaders would be honest about where we’ve been, what we’re doing, what we need to do now. We’ve received zilch, nada, zip from Bush, Obama, Bernanke. The only one who came close, Volcker was marginalized the cut loose and is ignored by the media.
Instead we get a lot of lying from ALL directions, kicking the can, continued profiteering and literally 95% of the public doesn’t care. They won’t care until they lose their jobs, or their pensions/SS/medicare. We’ve been slowly turning into a corporatist utopic banana republic and very few care yet.
The most valuable lesson I’ve learned from HBB these last 6-7 years is assume EVERYONE is attempting to separate me from my wallet, until proven otherwise. The Second Lesson: nearly all politicians and their appointees are lying sociopathics lumps of **** looking to consolidate their power and perhaps a future position with X corporation or lobbyign group.
“Real leaders, honest leaders would be honest about where we’ve been, what we’re doing, what we need to do now.”
No argument from here. However for an officeholder to get to be in the position so as to lead he has to get elected. And to get elected he has to garner more votes than his opponents. And if his opponents are more convincing to the voters than he is then he will lose the election.
So the issue really isn’t about honesty, the issue is about getting elected.
And because well-spoken lies are much more valued than the ugly and painful truth the majority of voters will go with the lies.
Those who are clever look to what liers do, not as to what they say.
But the cleverest liars also fool those who look to what they do.
Vote for me and you get Volcker; Volcker himself seemed to be going along with this scenerio so it didn’t really seem at the time to be a lie.
“EVERYONE is attempting to separate me from my wallet”
This is an expression I’ve used for years.
And as I posted a few times over the years, that was exactly what my former sales manager told us our job was, in those exact words.
As a side note, I think y’all are shooting the messenger. I don’t think for a second that Combo wants to be lied to or thinks it’s okay to do so.
I don’t remember much of Carter as I was a young’un in those days, but look how far his “Crisis of Confidence” speech got him. He is now oft cited as being one of our worst Presidents, if not THE worst. Along came our “hero” and deficit-spending “savior” Reagan and the rest is history.
Keep it moving up and to the right and everyone’s happy, truth be damned.
Yes, the revisionists have turned Reagan into something he never was. The beginning of the end. The Clintonistas are in a similar state of suspension of disbelief.
It’s like Jim Jones cultism all around. Does anyone bother with the facts anymore?
Mmmm, kool-aid!
I’ve always been amazed how they turned a mediocre, not too bright actor into an icon.
“What does anyone expect BB to say? That we are doomed?”
Nobody put a gun to his head and forced him to say anything. It would have been better for him to play mum, rather than offer a riduculously lowball estimate of the mortgage crisis damage tally.
“What does anyone expect BB to say? That we are doomed?”
Remember Alfred Kahn? He was the guy who was in charge of closing the Civil Aeronautics Board. Yup, you can blame Alfred for the beginnings of airline deregulation.
Well, Alfred was a pretty plain-speaking guy, and he had a habit of warning that the sluggish 1970s economy could get a lot worse. He even went as far as using the D-word: Depression.
Apparently, that bothered other people in the Carter Administration. Because he started warning of a “deep, deep banana.” He’d joke that he wasn’t allowed to use that other word.
Part of the job as the head of an organization is to talk up the organization he heads.
Does the Green Bay Packers coach talk of going to the Super Bowl? Does the Chairman of GM talk of regaining market share?
Promotion is what these guys do, it is what they are all about. If they were to undercut the organizations they headed then they would be replaced.
If you want honesty about an organization then you had better get your information from somebody else.
BB and TTT are the key enablers to the Federal Reserve-Wall Street Ponzi scheme. Of course they have to lie. So do their shills in the corporate media.
For the police state folks: experienced my second Massachusetts State Police sobriety checkpoint Thursday night. The first came a year ago returning from a Pearl Jam concert. Thursday’s act was Eddie Vedder, must not like agitators…..
Amazing how just driving late on a Friday or Saturday night became Probable Cause to pull you over. Even more amazing is that many people approve of such tactics.
I’ve gotten to the point where I rarely have a drink outside the house.
Around here, the cops pull bicyclists over — especially if it looks like we’re riding erratically. Truth is, a lot of our erratic riding is due to street conditions — gotta dodge that big pothole or whoa! look out for that broken glass.
Around here, the cops pull bicyclists over ??
Because they have nothing else to do…Their are just to many of them…Each shift comes out looking for someone to cite or arrest…All in the name of keeping you “Safe”…
“Each shift comes out looking for someone to cite or arrest.”
And if the police station has a quota then the most dangerous parts of a day for a lawbreaker is right after the start of a shift.
Once their quota is made the cops get to hang around the donut shop, so the incentive for the cops is to get their quota filled ASAP.
So if you are going to break the law do it near the end of a shift, not near the beginning.
I agree AZSlim. But I do like Negra Modelo on tap, and I don’t have a way to get that at home.
Bill, that’s one of my favorites as well. Hope to hoist a few with you one of these days.
And me the same! We have many commonalities I noticed, so a lot to talk about during those rounds of beer.
The Idaho legislature has banned “sobriety checkpoints” anywhere within the state. We put our money where our mouth is with libertarian politics.
+1 for Idaho…
We put our money where our mouth is with libertarian politics.
any software development jobs in Idaho that you know of?
Not really. The big tech firms - HP printer division and Micron - aren’t really hiring. There are supposedly lots of smaller systems/software firms in the Boise area, but I don’t know any details about them. Most of the tech jobs are either around Boise or out at the Idaho National Labs (Idaho Falls).
It’s a tough one for sure. I am all for needing probably cause. On the other hand, I have seen studies (no link, so major grain of salt) that have shown that a shockingly high percent of people driving after midnight are impaired. Since ditching the car for the bicycle, I feel justifiably concerned for the ability and condition of those who would run me over and am leaning toward my own safety. Yeah, yeah, those who would trade freedom for safety, yadda yadda.
I just think that it’s a more complex issue than most people on both sides want to admit. That’s all.
When I lived in Las Vegas, Vegas Metro Police claimed, with their experience with the driving public, that over 50% of all drivers are impaired by Midnite and over 60% by 2:00 AM. Obviously, it’s Vegas but when you live there, work graveyards shifts, and drove in that traffic that is not good news.
It’s been axiomatic for decades that many people love to stay out and party late at night. And most of that involves alcohol or some illegal (of course less impairment-causing) drug. Also that criminals use the advantage of darkness to strike. I did the late night party scene in my late 20s / early 30s. Had to get that out of my system. Took three years. I had enough fun. But then I don’t really miss it. Too dangerous.
The Fourth Amendment is for all intents and purposes null and void. And the sheeple just shrug and go back to watching DWTS.
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/pittsburgh/s_742235.html
Sheeple might start waking up once this happens to them. The passive acceptance of police-state tactics will only invite more blatant and systemic infringements on civil liberties.
The 4th Amendment died with the war on drugs, along with due process.
But… it was never highly regarded and respected in the entire history of the nation in the first place.
Disregarding the Constitution has been a recurring theme since our founding.
Psychopaths HATE rules that keep them from hurting other people at will.
“Even more amazing is that many people approve of such tactics.”
+1 A republican is someone who hasn’t been arrested, and a democrat is someone who has been arrested and can’t afford a lawyer.
Did he do some of the ukelele stuff?
As for the Friday/Saturday pullovers, that happened to me in Portland a few years back. I was in the process of selling my house and was VERY agitated by the process. Went out for a drive to clear my head and got pulled over.
Things not in my favor:
1. Jeep’s registration had lapsed.
2. Sporting major 5 o’clock shadow and a skull cap.
3. Left my ID in my shirt pocket (which was at home) due to plane travel the day before.
4. Insurance card was not current (although the insurance was).
For some still unexplained reason, I had my passport with me. Officer said if it weren’t for that, he would’ve taken me to jail and had my vehicle impounded. LOL. What a night THAT could’ve turned into…
“Did he do some of the ukelele stuff?”
He started the show with a few then switched around with a guitar and mandolin. Great show overall, though part of it was the venue (Wang Center) and the seats. The Wife bought front row for my birthday.
They stopped arresting people driving without ID & insurance in Dallas because they ran out of room to store the vehicles and it’s racist.
Most people support the police state if it suits them…You know, if it only affects “those people”.
Most would say it’s fine for the police to knock-and-announce 10 seconds before bashing in someone’s door as long as it doesn’t happen to me or happen in my neighborhood. What’s to stop your door from being bashed in or your rights from being violated?
Nothing and there have been many instances of this happening AND the wrong person being killed!
There’s an old saying: ” A liberal is just a conservative who hasn’t been robbed yet.”
But there’s a second part to this saying (surprise huh?) “…and a conservative is just a liberal who hasn’t been wrongfully arrested and convicted yet.”
BOTH happen with far too much regularity in the nation.
In my area we’ve had multiple home invasions in the past year where the perps shouted “police!” before breaking down the door. Some of them flashed authentic-looking police badgets. Most of them appeared to be targeting places where drug dealing might have been going on, but at some point honest citizens can’t be blamed if they shoot first and ask questions later.
Isn’t it a rater’s 1st Amendment right to slap a seal of approval on sh!tty assets?
Caveat emptor.
Saturday 18 June 2011
Financial Crisis
SEC investigates role of ratings agencies Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s ahead of the financial crisis
Greater scrutiny of the role of Moody’s and S&P is said to be part of a wider examination of the role Wall Street banks played.
By Richard Blackden
8:00AM BST 18 Jun 2011
The Securities and Exchange Commission is examining whether Standard & Poor’s (S&P) and Moody’s were too reliant on out-of-date information and failed to conduct adequate research when assessing the creditworthiness of mortgage debt, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The greater scrutiny of the role of Moody’s and S&P, which is owned by McGraw-Hill, is said to be part of a wider examination of the role Wall Street banks played in fuelling the global market for US mortgage debt before the crisis.
It was a market that credit rating agencies played a critical role in as they awarded ratings on pools of mortgage debt. The SEC is said to be examining the role of a number of banks including Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
The rating agencies have already faced criticism that they awarded top ratings to pools of mortgages because it proved a profitable business in the years before the crisis erupted in 2007.
Once US house prices began falling in value, the value of that debt dropped dramatically.
…
“TrueFinancialInnovation™” + “TrueSerialLiquiditist™” + “TrueSerialEnablers™” =
“a vastly over-sold debacle…” Ben Jones of Flagstaff, AZ
But hey, that’s just Hwy50’s whacked opinion$
These were the same raters who gave AAA ratings to toxic waste MBS bundles peddled by Obama’s favorite bankers. Of course the SEC, the same organization that turned a blind eye to Bernie Madoff despite countless warnings, will conclude its “investigation” with some slap-on-the-wrist fines and a settlement that means non of the perps will be brought to justice for their role in the massive MBS swindle.
Too big too jail.
Home-price declines are more than tax credit
Kathleen Pender, Chronicle Columnist
San Francisco Chronicle
June 16, 2011 04:00 AM Copyright
Some people who rushed to buy a house before the federal home-buyer tax credit expired last year might be kicking themselves right now, as price declines in many parts of the Bay Area far exceed the amount of the credit.
Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Analytics, says the only reason prices appear to be falling is because “the share of distressed properties is rising,” he says. “Prices for nondistressed properties have not fallen nationwide.”
He adds that “once the distressed properties are worked through, you will probably see a pop in pricing,” although that could be six to 12 months from now. “In California, you will be rewarded if you bought in the last couple or three years. I would not worry at all,” he says.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/06/15/BURE1JUB3P.DTL - 112k -
The market only looks like it is going down. It really isn’t. See, if you take out the lower priced houses, the higher priced houses are still higher. Got it?
“He adds that “once the distressed properties are worked through, you will probably see a pop in pricing,” although that could be six to 12 months from now. “In California, you will be rewarded if you bought in the last couple or three years. I would not worry at all,” he says.”
If it weren’t for distressed properties, sales would be a bigger disaster. Those are the properties that are realistically affordable. Without out distressed properties, we have a recipe for a frozen market for many years. I can’t wait for interest rates to finally rise! Housing will be a blood sucking money pit for the next several years.
“I can’t wait for interest rates to finally rise!”
That eventuality is doubtless not even on Mr Dumbsh!t Used Home Sales Person’s radar screen.
Oops — I accidentally confused Zandi with a Dumbsh!t Used Home Sales Person. I don’t know how that could have happened — my bad…
“He adds that “once the distressed properties are worked through, you will PROBABLY see a pop in pricing,” although that could be six to 12 months from now. “In California, you will be rewarded if you bought in the last couple or three years. I would not worry at all,” he says.”
And we will PROBABLY see a 7.0 or higher earthquake here in California in the next 50 years too.
It would be nice if they had to base their musings on facts or risk something of real value.
“once the distressed properties are worked through, you will PROBABLY see a pop in pricing,”
Is this prediction supposed to occur before or after 2020?
“Home-price declines are more than tax credit”
Another HBB prediction comes to pass!
Yes, good point. And this was predicted by the team here in 2009. Congrats to HBB!
“Prices for nondistressed properties have not fallen nationwide.”</i.
He’s either a liar or stupid.
I live in a VERY middle class, VERY well kept, high population and density neighborhood with above average economic stability in the 4th largest city in the nation, and prices across the board have declined at LEAST 12% from peak. In some cases, 40%.
Bruins fan gathering in front of my house to hop the T to the parade. It’s during these events I realize New England does have a sizable redneck population.
Just for shits and giggles, what do you guys think about posting a link of the dumps you’re all looking at?? Face it… we’re *looking* in some form or fashion. Most of us don’t really know each other and it would be a good way to associate a person with a personality.
Maybe BJ can dedicate a thread.
I do, it’s the Local Market Observations post.
I don’t feel like posting anything until I see something that I’d actually consider buying at the price it’s listed at. So far I’ve seen zero things in that category.
“I don’t feel like posting anything until I see something that I’d actually consider buying at the price it’s listed at. So far I’ve seen zero things in that category.”
+1. I posted a few today that have been under consideration but they still have grossly inflated prices.
Just curious, but does anyone here have their real estate license? I was thinking of getting one here in Maryland for a variety of reasons - mainly because I need a new hobby, I have a ton of sitting around down time on my hands, and something else to add to the resume. (Not that the places I apply to actually care about a RE license, but what the hell). Just to add, I have zero desire to work as a realtor.
For those who went through the courses, is it worth it? Did you learn something?
It’s either this, or get my Helicopter add-on rating. This is a much cheaper option.
My former landlady had a Maryland real estate license. That was in addition to her two master’s and one undergraduate degrees.
I don’t recall her saying that the real estate coursework was any great intellectual challenge. And she didn’t work for very long as an agent. (She wasn’t the gregarious, sales-y type.)
So, hope the above is helpful.
Elsewhere on the learning front, I’m planning on getting trained as a storyteller. As in, one of those Spalding Gray/Garrison Keillor types who gets up in front of an audience and tells stories.
There’s a local organization that presents monthly storytelling events featuring people from our community. They’re offering a formal course this fall, and if I have to knock over a bank to pay the tuition, I’ll be there.
“…I’m planning on getting trained as a storyteller.”
You might want to read David Mamet’s “Bambi vs Godzilla”; It’s got some interesting storytelling tips.
Here’s the gist of one: Don’t emphasise to the audience what is happening now, get the audience to anticipate what is about to happen.
What is happening now should be used as lead to presenting what is about to happen, as in suspense.
Your practice runs here on HBB bode well for your prospect of being a good storyteller.
Thank you for the encouragement, oxide.
Thanks as well to combotechie. I’ve put in a library hold request for Bambi vs. Godzilla. It’ll be good reading to tide me over until the storytelling class starts in September.
Sean, I’ve given thought to getting one too. My reason is to be able to get some inside info on property that I want to buy before it hits the open market. Also want the real scoop on what’s not being told to the public at large.
“…mainly because I need a new hobby…”
There’s proximity flying:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EAl6MTGJnI
This has been an expensive year so far: Wife and kids visited Europe for the holidays. Daughter needed orthodontic braces. Daughter needed a R13 Buffet clarinet. Wife needed ovarian surgery. Wife needed new glasses.
Fast forward to last week: Wife needed skin cancers removed and tested. Kids are growing fast and needed new clothes, i.e., shopping spree. Son needed orthodontic braces. Wife’s car needed tires. Our grocery bill is now $1,500 per month; no inflation? We simply couldn’t make in Metro America with my one income; no doubt about it.
The good news: the mortgage is down to $6,600. Looking at this October for the title.
Congrats on the mortgage burning prospect, and I can feel your pain on most of the family expenses you listed, though fortunately no cancer or ovarian issues to report at this point. But food and energy prices are killing us — the former due to boys entering their peak growth years, and the latter due to persistently high oil prices. Hopefully last week’s 6% drop in oil prices will be repeated a few more times in the foreseeable future, as I am tired of paying over $40 to fill the gas tank of an economy car.
I confess that I had to put my sons orthodontic braces on a credit card, but I’ll knock it down in a couple of months.
There’s little doubt in my mind why social welfare is so pervasive these days, yet I continue to see fresh faced teenaged mothers on every visit to the grocery store.
I really should mention that our two cars are are the Achilles heal in my current budget. Both are high mileage, mine at 321,400 and hers at 170,700, but they have been very reliable to date. My wife’s car is newer and more sophisticated, so many repairs are beyond my diagnostic capabilities. Used car prices are very high right now, a topic correctly identified here in the HBB, so I am holding out. However, when your wife needs a car there is little choice; an unplanned purchase would render our budget tighter than a snare drum.
I just got a letter from a local Ford dealer offering to buy my 2005 500 for cash.
Cash for Clunkers, in additon to being more socialist central planning meddling in the marketplace, took a lot of perfectly good and affordable cars out of circulation.
How many kids do you have? I can imagine a $1500 per month grocery bill. I spend about $200. But I am lazay and buy lots of expensive convience foods. And other goodies. If I was diligent I could get the cost down quite a bit.
I can’t imagine a $1500… P.S. My $200 per month is for a single person and includes $5 for carryout lunch during the work week.
I’m just a bit below that amount, Anon. And I’ll ‘fess up to having a taste for fine cooking ingredients. I’m really enjoying the process of learning how to cook well.
We have two kids, but things like laundry and dish washer soap are included in the grocery list. BTW, no red meat either!
Another favorite HBB discussion topic hits the MSM! This article has some heartening information for those who are tired of the duopolistic Republicrat cleptocracy that currently sets the policy and divides the spoils of the U.S. political system.
The current tally of the sidebar poll shows that 82.5% of respondents would vote for a third party. Of course, responding to an online WSJ poll may be a marker for the intellectual capacity to make an informed decision between candidates representing three or more political parties.
Judging from a remark in this article, it is common knowledge that Uncle Sam is using federal tax dollars to prop up housing prices.
THE SATURDAY ESSAY
JUNE 18, 2011
Death of the Duopoly
Being binary is bad for business, so when will politics cure its bipolar disorder? Nick Gillespie and Matt Welch on the lessons Washington should learn from the real world.
By NICK GILLESPIE and MATT WELCH
Democrats and Republicans are at risk of becoming irrelevant, says Reason.com’s Nick Gillespie, as more voters identify as Independents or with other groups like the Tea Party. He talks with WSJDN’s Kelsey Hubbard about the shortcomings of the longstanding duopoly in American politics.
Nothing in American life today seems as archaic, ubiquitous and immovable as the Republican and Democratic parties.
The two 19th-century political groupings divide up the spoils of a combined $6.4 trillion that is extracted each year from taxpayers at the federal, state, county and municipal levels. Though rhetorically and theoretically at odds with one another, the two parties have managed to create a mostly unbroken set of policies and governance structures that benefit well-connected groups at the expense of the individual.
Americans have watched, with a growing sense of alarm and alienation, as first a Republican administration and then its Democratic successor have flouted public opinion by bailing out banks, nationalizing the auto industry, expanding war in Central Asia, throwing yet more good money after bad to keep housing prices artificially high, and prosecuting a drug war that no one outside the federal government pretends is comprehensible, let alone winnable. It is easy to look upon this well-worn rut of political affairs and despair.
And Americans are, in increasing numbers. Perhaps the most important long-term trend in U.S. politics is the four-decade leak in market share by the country’s two dominant parties. In 1970, the Harris Poll asked Americans, “Regardless of how you may vote, what do you usually consider yourself—a Republican, a Democrat, an independent or some other party?”
Fully 49% of respondents chose Democrat, and 31% called themselves Republicans. Those figures are now 35% for Democrats and 28% for Republicans. While the numbers have fluctuated over the years, the only real growth market in politics is voters who decline affiliation, with independents increasing from 20% of respondents to 28%.
These findings are consistent with other surveys. In January, Gallup reported that the Democrats were near their lowest point in 22 years (31%), while the GOP remained stuck below the one-third mark at 29%. The affiliation with the highest marks? Independent, at 38% and growing. In a survey released in May, the Pew Research Center found that the percentage of independents rose from 29% in 2000 to 37% in 2011.
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Both major parties’ core competencies are identifying and publicizing why I shouldn’t vote for the other party. I’m really starting to believe them. Sounds like I’m not alone.
They did not mention people who don’t vote. They are all honorary members of the NOTA party, none of the above!
Old bumper sticker “Don’t vote. It will only encourage them!”
The trick is to have multiple parties and when one (or 2) gains too much power, vote them out.
We don’t really have that choice in this country. Among the only viable alternative parties, the Libertarians are too naive and the Greens are too “socialist” for people.
Unfortunately, the old saying is true: we have the government we deserve. We wanted less regulation so we could all make “the big score” and we got it…. for someone else.
I guess so long as a panic plays out in the global financial system, there will be no near-term prospect of ending too-big-to-fail, as the banksters have a loaded bazooka aimed at politicians’ heads?
BUSINESS WORLD
JUNE 18, 2011
Why We Aren’t Bashing Banks
As the world deals with debt crises, the time is not ripe for populism.
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Politicians find no upside in bashing bankers right now for good reason, since the whole game—100%—is maneuvering the European Central Bank and its chief Jean-Claude Trichet into a more pliant mood so they will prop up Europe’s banking system to permit sovereign debt restructuring to go ahead.
This, and this alone, is why politicians judiciously decide the time is not ripe for playing the populist card against bankers.
And the ideological disorientation does not end with the momentary navigation of bailout politics in Europe. It extends to longer-term questions. Left and right, a consensus has formed that “too big to fail” banks are a danger to the real economy and something needs to be done.
The latest solution to gather fans is imposing much higher capital minimums on such banks—a step in the right direction, but no panacea. The problem remains how to discipline their risk-taking even given a bigger capital cushion. Such banks fund their bets with cheap leverage—cheap because lenders believe their principal is guaranteed by government. At the same time, bank managers are incentivized by the equity markets to exploit every advantage to produce competitive returns to satisfy risk-hungry, well-diversified stock investors. Stiffer capital standards might just prompt them to take concealed risks in ways not understood by regulators.
Higher capital requirements might be a real solution, however, if pushed to their logical conclusion. Let such banks that are “too big to fail” be taxed out of existence by taxing away the value of their implicit government guarantee. Their complexity and opacity would revert to being what it should be: a reason for investors and lenders to steer clear of them. Let their functions be dispersed to smaller and more focused institutions whose risk-taking can be monitored and disciplined by the capital markets.
Here’s guessing that a world without too-big-to-fail banks would not be bereft of financial innovation or diversified services aimed at every kind of customer. It might be a very nice world. And to get there, a little political vilification of bankers may indeed be in order. But that time is not yet.
The author speaks as one accustomed to domestic abuse, on the losing end. Break up the big banks and let them compete to survive rather than collude. Fracture them, it is afterall a fractional reserve system.
Much of the history of mankind is about abusive co-dependency.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2005231/Chinas-ghost-towns-New-satellite-pictures-massive-skyscraper-cities-STILL-completely-empty.html
China still building massive skyscraper cities that are EMPTY. Somebody is making a lot of money off this racket, and it’s going to end badly.
Our weather finally turned to spring about 10-days ago yielding comfortable mid seventies temps, partly cloudy with light winds. The desert winds constantly change direction, and today was no different, but Aeolus (god of the winds) decided I should have a tail wind for most of my 24-mile exercise loop. I was scooting along on the large chain ring like the pros today, but I ran out of water going through my one bottle by halfway for some reason. I could feel the craps trying to grip my calves the last 5-miles. Someone called my cell phone, so I stopped since I’m on call, but darn it - wrong number. My thoughts drifted to San Luis Obispo, CA realizing that I haven’t seen or smelled the ocean in while; I was spoiled living there, and I took it for granted.
U.K. set to unwind support for banking
LONDON . Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said Wednesday it’s time to begin unwinding support for Britain’s financial sector and selling government stakes in banks amid early signs of economic recovery.
Mr. Osborne fired the first shot with an announcement that Northern Rock PLC, nationalized in 2008 after suffering the first run on a British bank in more than a century, will be put up for sale. Liquidity programs and credit-support plans that saddled taxpayers with more than £1-trillion ($1.58-trillion) of liabilities at the height of the financial crisis are also being unwound.
http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/unwind/supportbanking/4954099/story.html
This should be interesting.