Bits Bucket for June 23, 2011
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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You know we’re set for a second huge leg down now that Vanilla Ice has started a real estate website for his fans:
http://www.cnn.com/2011/SHOWBIZ/Music/06/22/vanilla.ice.website.rs/index.html
TEOTWAWKI
This is it everybody, whatever your plans are, you must enact them immediately. The end is here. The entire planet has jumped the shark. The is clearly a CIA op to prep the masses that we’ll all be dead in days. End times. Game over.
God speed.
Vanilla Ice has fans?
Word to your mother: V Ice is going to be the poster-boy for the “Mid-burst Pause” sucker in the housing collapse. An FB with a ‘tude.
The next leg down has begun in housing.
A web site specifically for douche bags?
Did he ever even sell the pos mcmansion he remodeled on tv?
That moron couldn’t build a dog house in 6 months if I gave him plans and materials.
Rollin’ in my 5.0
With my rag-top down so my hair can blow
The girlies on standby waving just to say hi
Did you buy? No, I just drove by
Kept on pursuing to the next stop
I busted a left and I’m heading to the next block
The block was dead, yo, so I continued
To A1A Beach Front Avenue
Realtors were hot wearing less than bikinis
Fat homeloaners driving Lamborghinis
Jealous of the Ice ’cause I’m out getting mine
Shay bought one and Vanilla bought nine
Ready for the chumps who are sittin on the wall
The chumps aint buyin ’cause the markets gonna fall
They don`t wanna pay ’cause they say it`s goin down
Listen to the Ice ’cause the markets on the ground
Fannies` on the scene, you know what I mean?
They passed me up, and confronted all the victeems
If there was a problem, yo, I’ll solve it
Check out the mold while my DJ resolves it
Ice, Ice, baby
Vanilla Ice, Ice, baby
Vanilla Ice, Ice, baby
Vanilla Ice, Ice, baby
Vanilla
Word to your credit counselor
Yo I`m outa here
Check out the mold!!! Lol!! Nice work!
Great job! I’d like to see the MSM print this stuff. Hilarious!
Didn’t Vanilla Ice have a real estate reality show (flipping houses) last year or so?
Word to your mother
I liked his show. He seemed to know a heck of a lot more than the other house flippers.
I remember reading a review that Ice was pretty handy.
He should make a go of it on HGTV, really. Why not? ANYbody has to be better than the 90210 reject “hosts” on those shows now.
I think it would be pretty cool if the guy finds something he likes and is good at, for a change.
Boston Real Estate Now
Everything you need to know about Boston’s other spectator sport
Buying and selling, Markets
Housing market predictions: Will economists ever learn?
Posted by Scott Van Voorhis June 21, 2011 09:02 AM
It’s a favorite game of economists and housing market watchers. When your prediction of a housing rebound falls flat, just push off that rosy estimate until the next year.
Just take a look at Fannie Mae’s revised forecast for home sales across the country.
Faced with a sluggish economy and a housing market headed south, Fannie Mae has revised downward its prediction of a 6 percent jump in overall home sales this year.
It’s now down to 4.3 percent, with Fannie also predicting a decline this year in new home construction, compared to an increase it had been predicting.
But don’t worry, just wait until next year, Fannie Mae’s economists tell us.
That’s right, Fannie Mae is predicting a roaring market turnaround in 2012. In fact, Fannie, after seeing its predictions for a turnaround in 2011 fall flat, has actually juiced up its already optimistic projections for 2012.
I’ll quote directly here from a piece by Mortgageloan dot com
The basic rule appears to be this: The worse things look now, the grander the predicted turnaround for next year or some other point just far enough off to look plausible.
Now that’s great if you are rooting for some perpetual loser of a sports team, like the Cubs, but you’d expect a bit more caution from economists, even if they are working for Fannie Mae.
Economists learned long ago who butters their bread.
Freddie and Fannie are really eating the fried kook-aide!
I think Fried Kool-Aide is the right term for people who bought after the first leg and are looking at the second leg down now in disbelief and horror.
The Growth Ponzi Scheme
Read all five parts - good stuff.
really eating the fried kook-aide!
Freudian slip?
It looked pretty deliberate to my jaundiced eye.
It’s almost like Fannie Mae needs the market to recover a certain amount in order to hit some numbers financially. Like a gambler in Vegas who is down and loses again, then adds the new loss to his next bet just to break even.
Except for Fannie it’s only a few hundred billion.
Home / Business
Banks may be sued if foreclosure negotiations fail
State and federal officials are seeking to set standards for the way the banks service loans and conduct foreclosures. State and federal officials are seeking to set standards for the way the banks service loans and conduct foreclosures. (Jeff Kowalsky/Bloomberg News)
By David McLaughlin
Bloomberg News / June 23, 2011
CHICAGO — Banks negotiating with state attorneys general over foreclosure practices would be sued if a settlement isn’t reached, two of the state officials leading the talks said.
Attorney General Lisa Madigan of Illinois and Attorney General Roy Cooper of North Carolina threatened litigation if settlement talks with largest mortgage servicers, including Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., break down. The deadline for an agreement has been pushed back a month, according to a person with knowledge of the talks.
“If we don’t get an agreement, we’re prepared to go to court,’’ Cooper told advocates at a meeting of state attorneys general in Chicago yesterday.
…
Those Illinois state officials are pretty ballsy/dumb. Threatening BoA and Chase, well, well, well… How about downgrading their debt a few notches and/or cut off credit or massiv campaign contributions to the opposition, or all of the above? I am sure that will bring the hotheads back in line.
Mike, if you should happen to see Vanilla Ice can you punch him in the nuts for me?
I’ve seen him before. It was during spring break in the late ’90s, and he was in his rap/metal phase, singing all his same songs from the ’80s but in metal versions. I consider the period where rap/metal ruled music to be the WORST OF ALL TIME, but all in all, his version of it was pretty funny.
I probably threw a cup at him, because that’s just the kind of jerky youth i was back then.
I met him back at the original Stork club in Dallas. He was kinda full of it bsck then even. His manager was a little Vietnamese guy. They were the most unlikely pair to ever make it big in rap music.
I saw him at some small club in Virginia Beach when he was trying to make a comeback from the rap thing doing metal covers. It was mostly a joke for us to go.
Who would have thought reality TV would have brought fame back to all the older stars of the 80s/90s like it has.
The Blagojevich jury deliberation is in its ninth day. That’s all you have to know about IL. Oh, and that we are the only state remaining not to have concealed carry.
“The Blagojevich jury deliberation is in its ninth day. That’s all you have to know about IL.”
LOL… how true!
“The Blagojevich jury deliberation is in its ninth day.”
It’s taking this long because…!?
..it’s not good for a state’s image to have two ex-guvs in the pen at the same time. Deal cutting.
Because there were something like 27 charges, not just the one for trying to sell Obama’s Senate seat. Selling the Senate seat may be the weakest of them all.
for trying to sell Obama’s Senate seat.
I used to think differently but now I wonder what would be wrong with that? I mean our Supreme Court ruled in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission that cash was a form of “free speech” didn’t it? There is nothing unconstitutional about buying elections so what’s the big deal?
I mean money talks right, and now it’s legal in elections so why can’t money buy Senate seats directly and get rid of the middle-man of elections? Thanks to the Koch brother’s effort things are getting clearer and clearer in America.
Why were the Feds tapping his phones in the first place?
Trying to find out if he was hiding an IED in his hair? Isn’t all wiretapping these days for security purposes?
“If we don’t get an agreement, we’re prepared to….”
postpone.
My heros, taking on the big guys on behalf of the little guys.
(snark)
“Banks negotiating with states attorneys general …”
Lol.
“negotiating” = cutting deals
State and federal officials are seeking to set standards for the way the bank$ service
loansCEO bonu$ pay and conductforeclosureslegal-fraud.(Hwy is anxiously awaiting the Nationally displayed results.)
This Greek crisis gives one the feeling that the Sword of Damocles is perpetually suspended above the neck of the global financial system.
Derivatives Cloud the Possible Fallout From a Greek Default
By LOUISE STORY
Published: June 22, 2011
It’s the $616 billion question: Does the euro crisis have a hidden A.I.G.?
“There is lack of transparency and visibility in these products, and that increases the risk,” said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, a boutique banking firm in New York.
No one seems to be sure, in large part because the world of derivatives is so murky. But the possibility that some company out there may have insured billions of dollars of European debt has added a new tension to the sovereign default debate.
In years past, when financial crises in Argentina and Russia left those countries unable to make good on their government debts, they simply defaulted. But this time around, swaps and other sorts of contracts have become so common and so intertwined in the financial markets that there are fears among regulators and financial players about how a Greek default would play out among derivatives holders.
…
The Greek Jenga piece appears to be one near the base of the about to collapse tower. Nobody breathe.
There’re several other implications beyond Argentina and Russia.
1. This involves the EURO, a mjor currency.
2. Greece is only the G in PIIGS. Greece is the most advanced case but things are also dire for Portugal, Spain and Ireland.
3. Germany & France are supposed to do most of the bailing, both have 80+% debt of GDP. So neither has much room for error, especially considering the co-signer guarantees they have for the PIIGS. Sooner or later those guarantees must be honored which will push them over the edge.
They are not fixing anything, all they do is buy time with borrowed money….sounds familiar?
Greece, a poker game.
a boutique banking firm in New York
It appears some folks have given up on American carnage from Japanese radiation floating across the Pacific.
Fear! Fear! Fear! Don’t wake up without it.
1) Pass an expedited emergency bankruptcy procedure.
2) Allow bankruptcies so executive pay committments need not be honored.
so executive pay committments need not be honored
Tankxs WTE
heheeeheeeheehaahaaahaaheeehaahaaa… (Hwy50™)
(Another HBB
great idea!solution that will never be implemented.)“Allow bankruptcies so executive pay committments need not be honored.”
I’m surprised they didn’t think of that with AIG back in Fall 2008!
What ever happened to those clawbacks anyhow??
Is this the next step after governments try to create policy to keep their stock markets up? Governments trying to create policy to avoid the credit default swap triggering events from happening?
Credit Default Swaps are the Mutually Assured Destruction devices of the bankster class.
‘Bail us out or we ALL go boom.’
The funny thing is, I know something that could be done to get some of the players in that market begging to put them on a regulated exchange. Just begging. It wouldn’t handle the whole issue, but it would have some marginal effect. I just can’t figure out how to get the idea into the hands of someone who could do anything about it.
Sigh.
Seattle suicide signals collapse of real estate empire
“No one saw the storm coming. For nearly three decades, The Stratford Group offered an apparently winning formula for ambitious investors looking to start small and go big.”
http://tinyurl.com/64zw5vy
What a sad story.
Are you happy now Lying Realtors? Another death as a result of your fraudulent business practices.
real-turds lie, people die.
Just one of hundreds.
Remember, it’s socialism for the rich, no-holds-barred police state capitalism for the rest of us.
…as I have now discovered and confirmed rents and other funds were used for inappropriate purposes.” Cheryl Boswell said “The trust account has been depleted…the shortfall is substantial.”
Those who knew Boswell say his death reflected the way he lived his life, meticulous and in control,…
“He was a very charismatic person, really good with numbers, very sharp,” McCarthy said, “I had a lot of confidence in him.”
“TrueDeceiver’s™” There were some types like this in Hwy’s maternal side, I $en$e there are others “nearby”, time or unforeseen events may tell.
From the story:
“He was a very charismatic person, really good with numbers, very sharp,” McCarthy said, “I had a lot of confidence in him.”
To which I say:
I don’t know the facts of this case, but that phrase “charismatic person” rings alarm bells in my mind. Especially when it’s followed by an expression of confidence in the man.
Reason for the alarm bells: Charisma and the ability to inspire confidence are how con-men work. Doesn’t matter if they’re in business, politics or crime. That’s how they roll.
I have met very few people with charisma who weren’t trying to steal my wallet.
VERY few.
They could have taken some powerful bankers with them.
Weak.
interesting suicide 2 bullet wounds on his chest. pretty hardy guy to make the next shot after the shock of the first.
Awesome observation! One shot to the chest is typically sufficient when suicide is the cause of death.
U.S. Commercial Property Prices Decline on Distressed Sales, Moody’s Says (Bloomberg)
U.S. commercial property prices fell in April as sales of distressed assets made up a large share of transactions, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index dropped 3.7 percent from March and 13 percent from a year earlier. It’s now 49 percent below the peak of October 2007 and at its lowest point in data going back to December 2000, the company said in a report today.
The index, which measures broad national price trends, has fallen for five straight months as sales of distressed properties undermined real estate values. Investor demand is strongest for well-leased buildings in major markets such as New York and Washington, which are viewed as less risky in a sluggish economy.
“In a case of the strong getting stronger and the weak getting weaker, major asset/major market prices have recovered more than half of their post-peak losses, while prices for distressed transactions continue to bounce around the bottom,” Moody’s said in the report.
New York office prices jumped 24 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier. Office values in San Francisco increased 9.6 percent, and Washington had a 6.1 percent gain.
Show me job strength and I will show you stable or strong commercial real estate…Show me weak job market and I will show you a bloodbath in commercial real estate…
Hwy would like you to show us Sir Greenis$pents “Box” Index…how has America managed this long while without anyone able to locate it?
Show me a homeloaner who bought in 2005 and I will show you a job loss and serious medical problems.
Show me a homeloaner who bought in 2005 and I will show you a job loss and serious medical problems ??
Not in this zip code….95014
scdave,
What are you seeing/hearing in Cupertino on the housing front? We are starting to hear of bidding wars/prices rising in Palo Alto/Menlo Park for anything that is nice.
This?
Silicon Valley: Housing Bust? What Housing Bust?
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_26/b4234054455219.htm
Successful tech IPOs are making young Silicon Valley workers rich, and keeping home prices high in towns such as Cupertino and Palo Alto
The U.S. housing bust continues to wipe out wealth in major markets nationwide. Then there’s Silicon Valley. Investor enthusiasm for technology initial public offerings this year has resulted in big payouts for some workers, who are bidding up home prices in the well-off suburbs south of San Francisco. In May the median price of single-family houses sold in Palo Alto climbed 20 percent from a year earlier, to $1.6 million, the biggest jump since 2008,
Or this?
Technology bubble raises fears of a Palo Alto housing bust
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/8584370/Technology-bubble-raises-fears-of-a-Palo-Alto-housing-bust.html
Psst! Got a spare $1.3m? Well if you have, a very average house in Palo Alto, home of Facebook and Google among other technology companies, could almost be yours. In a country where collapsing house prices are the norm the technology capital has seen price rises of 20pc, increasing concerns of a technology bubble which could end up bursting….
…A venture capitalist, who wished to remain anonymous, said: “Many of us who have lived in Palo Alto for the last 30 years, have seen this all happen before [in the dot com crash] and know that we need to sell our house now, if we want to be able to afford to buy a bigger place before all the prices go through the roof. “People are just starting to do really well from these initial public offerings and the sales of technology stocks. A lot of money is flowing into this small area from around the world and most people are trying to buy new homes now before the Facebook IPO – which we expect in quarter one next year.”
I think this is what is going on primarily:
“most people are trying to buy new homes now before the Facebook IPO – which we expect in quarter one next year.”
These are not newly minted tech millionaires buying, it is others who were on the sidelines and were already rich buying before the IPOs bring in a lot more cash. The lockup on shares after an IPO is something like 6 months, so other than some founders selling shares in an IPO, most have to wait…
I’m trying real hard to feel sorry for them.
NOT!
Stupid, yet rich. Sums up our nation in a nutshell.
Thank you for the article. Commercial RE pain ahead of residential. Interesting that there is no BS about distressed sales not affecting “values”.
Buy what FedGov employees buy.
Sell what China buys.
There appears to be a sudden double-dip in commercial vacancies around these parts. About 1.5 years ago I noticed many at least partially vacant buildings/storefronts for lease or for sale. Most became fully occupied and now, 18 months later, I’m noticing the other occupants (the ones that were partially occupying the space while they were trying to lease) and even some of the new occupiers have moved out.
It’s not true of every space, but the commercial for sale/lease signs are definitely back out in noticeable fashion.
It all depends on what street, and what side of the street, not to mention tenant, quality of building, etc. These overall views of commercial markets don’t give you any granular detail.
We just sold an asset for 2x what we paid in April of 2010 (closed last week). No increase in rents, just increase in appetite for solid cash flow, and the product type had about a 0% vacancy in the market.
On the other hand, we are looking to buy an asset in a completely different market for about 25% of what a similar asset sold for a year ago. It needs a lot of work, but once done, our basis will be all of 50% of what the similar asset sold for a year ago. The hope is to ultimately sell for 70-75% of the 2010 number after fix-up and leasing.
There is much diversity in the markets…
Thanks for your posts, RW.
I appreciate you sharing your observations and personal experience. Good information– regardless of the source– always helps one to sort out one’s options.
Americans doing more work on weekends
USA TODAY
What’s more, Americans have cut back a little on time they previously spent relaxing and watching TV, according to the 2010 American Time Use Survey, released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
They also spent more weekend time doing household activities such as cooking and cleaning, as well as socializing. The survey is drawn from interviews with 13,200 people over the age of 15.
The survey shows that work-life changes since 2009 affected women more than men. Women worked more hours overall than they did two years ago, especially on weekends
Employed women, who historically have worked fewer hours than men, are catching up as the hours men work are decreasing.
While employed men still work about 40 minutes more a day than women, the average employed woman spends seven hours and 26 minutes a day doing work or work-related activities — more than 10 minutes more than last year.
Work-related activities include such things as golf games with clients and business lunches, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics
On the other hand, the average employed man spends eight hours and nine minutes doing work or related activities, several minutes less than last year.
“With this economy, women are taking on more of a breadwinner role in the family, and part of this is working more hours,” says Laura Vanderkam, author of 168 Hours: You Have More Time Than You Think.
1. People cutting cable bills
2. People not taking vacations
Leaves more time for working around the house.
I spent last weekend cutting up a 125 yo Hickory tree, now we are trying to figure out what to do with the wood. Furniture maker friends and neighbors and a guy who makes paddles are coming over next weekend to split it. I’m going to have them make all my xmas presents from that tree. It was a great neighborhood building experience.
Americans have cut back a little on time they previously spent relaxing and watching TV
————–
So in this particular study, watching less tv is a bad thing? Got it. Just wait until football season rolls around. We’ll get back on the trendline.
“They also spent more weekend time doing household activities such as cooking and cleaning, as well as socializing.
Cooking! Oh, the horror! I can’t afford to have Olive Garden feed me salad, breadsticks, and (on a good night) overly-microwaved pasta anymore. I might actually have to prepare my own food, and might actually have fun involving my kids and creating something that we can both share in. How can anyone live like that?! What is this country coming to?
“relaxing and watching TV”
Are these meant to be synonymous? Wow.
“cooking and cleaning, as well as socializing” So we are eating cheaper and healthier (probably), not having a maid and talking to our neighbors? How is this a bad thing (other than to the maid)?
Great story, measton and I enjoyed the other comments too. Taking the words out of my mouth/hand.
MrBubble
Realtors Are Liars
Sad summer ahead for teen employment
USA TODAY
“It’s about as bad as it gets,” says Joseph McLaughlin, senior research associate at the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University in Boston. “Last summer, we reached a postwar employment low for 16- to 19-year-olds.”
McLaughlin doesn’t expect much improvement this year.
The official teen unemployment rate is about 25%, but that figure doesn’t count all the teens who aren’t seeking work. When all teens are factored in, only 25% of them will actually have jobs. That level of discouragement or disinterest worries many economists.
“What concerns me most is when I see youth who are idle: not working and not going to school,” says Betsey Stevenson, chief economist for the U.S. Department of Labor. In July 2001, about 50% of 16- to 17-year-olds worked, she says.
McLaughlin says teen employment was high through the 1990s, fell in the recession of 2001 and never really bounced back. By 2007, employment rates for teens were falling again and now sit at historic lows.
The illegals have taken all the jobs that used to go to teenagers and college kids. That’s why they have such a high unemployment rate.
That probably depends on the locale. In some places the word “taken” might apply, but in others the word should probably be “filled”.
The yuppie kiddies in our city and the a lot of kids from our better off suburbs were never bred to work a day behind a counter. It’s straight to six to eight years of higher ed for them.
In the 60s college kept them out of Viet Nam. Since then college has kept them out from behind the fry cooker.
“Since then college has kept them out from behind the fry cooker.”
You’d think with the cost of education, they’d need some kind of work to make ends meet. Unless costs have gotten so bad part time work isn’t enough to make a dent. Either mummy and daddy are rich, or they’re not.
At the higher end liberal arts institutions, they are out doing unpaid internships in a desparate attempt to actually get paying jobs after they graduate.
$50K of student loans and some form of professional employment is a much better deal than $40K of student loans and a remote chance at any type of professional employment.
+1 on the student loans. Both my wife and I had significant student loans (perhaps $40k for me, and perhaps $50k for my wife). But the money was spent on degrees that got us great jobs. After graduation, before replacing our cars (mine with the door interiors falling apart, and her’s with non-functional trunk/no power steering/no power windows), we put all extra cash to student loans and were debt free within a few years.
Without professional jobs, this would not have been possible. I shudder to think of what it would have been like if I even had half of my debt as a math teacher.
“The yuppie kiddies in our city and the a lot of kids from our better off suburbs were never bred to work a day behind a counter”
Yes, but those kids are a minority. Around here we have lots of lower to middle class kids who desperately want a job. So much so, that there was an article in our local fishwrap about employers being inundated with applications for summer gigs where the kids didn’t know how to fill out an application. (Say, Muggy, in your education job, maybe this would be a good thing to address?). One employer has gone to bat to help the kids learn how to fill out a job application.
You know, that’s kinda funny, because I wonder what happens when illegals are confronted by job applications. Do they fill them out? Does someone help them? Or is it all done verbally?
And this is the problem I have with education in the US. If a kid doesn’t know how to fill out a job application by the time he’s 14, then something’s seriously wrong. Why is our children learning? More importantly, WHAT is our children learning?
End the public education system as we know it, replace it with something else.
If kids don’t know how to fill out a job application, then it’s the parents to blame, not schools.
Why is the fault of either the parents OR the schools? I don’t recall having to be taught how to fill out a job application. It is pretty much a self-explanatory procedure for anyone even marginally literate.
I haven’t filled out many job applications, but the few times I did, there were inevitably one or two ambiguous questions.
In other areas (95+%) those service jobs just aren’t in demand. More people eating at home and skipping the trip to Wally World. More people mowing their own lawn. etc etc etc.
In the majority of places, it’s going to be “taken by illegals.”
But more importantly, there just AREN’T enough jobs.
+1. Give illegals some credit for creating their own jobs and livelihoods, not “stealing” from some overindulgent American.
In my experience, illegals work a lot harder and are more reliable & contientious than teenagers and college kids.
Absolutely. But how will the kids learn good work habits if they never get the opportunity to work?
Believe it or not, there are some kids out there who really want to work, and who are not afraid to get their hands dirty.
More social-networking “wilding” coming soon to a neighborhood near you
FR Board of Governors Are Liars (Bernie is just a figurehead)
Stop the fraud and raise lending rates so savers earn a reasonable return on their savings.
and raise lending rates so savers earn a reasonable return on their savings ??
In return you would get 20% + unemployment…This economy is on life support right now and is trying to de-leverage…
Thanks, Dave. The idea of raising interest rates with unemployment rates so high is pretty much a non-starter at the Fed, as part of their mandate is to maintain high levels of employment.
Too bad retirees who used to rely on investment returns on CDs and other steady, safe sources of income can’t do so at this point. And if we have a period of high inflation to follow the current episode, fixed-income pensioners will get wiped out some more.
That’s just it.
The employment arguement is a LIE
1. Inflation in food and fuel means less spending on services and locally manufactured goods.
2. Low interest rates means seniors aren’t going out either.
Sure a collapse in housing prices would hurt spending too but not sure it would be worse. For many they stop payments and start squating and thus have more money available to spend on other things.
I actually think a collapse in housing prices would be a great way for the Republicans to create a stealth stimulus without raising taxes — a perfect fit to their political rhetoric.
However, I am murky on the connection to a major spike in interest rates during the era when most U.S. households are deeply underwater. How exactly would this help the picture?
What, what, what,wha……t
OCTOMOM Nadya Suleman has canceled a bikini car wash she was due to hold June 18 to raise money to save her California home from foreclosure.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/octomom-cancels-bikini-car-wash-planned-to-raise-funds-to-avoid-foreclosure/story-e6frf7jx-1226074335143
“What, what, what,wha……t
Whatta nutjob that woman is. She’s freakish like the Duggars and their gaggling brood of 19 mouthbreathers.
I would pay $5.00 at a carnival to see a mud wrestling match between Oct-o-Mom & Joe-the-Plumber.
http://www.nationalledger.com/pop-culture-news/octomom-house-slips-into-forec-249869.shtml
“According to the person holding the note to the property, Octomom bought the La Habra, CA house in March, 2009 and was to make payments for a year and then make a balloon payment for the balance.
The report claims that balloon payment of $450,000 that was due was not paid that was due on March 10, 2010.”
Jobless Recovery: This is how you do it, folks.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-best-buy-bigbox-20110622,0,7818324.story
The Great Contraction rolls on.
Circuit City vanished which allowed Best Buy to benifit by taking up the slack.
But the slack kept extending itself so now Best Buy is at risk.
And on and on it will go.
I wonder about the future of Home Depot and Lowe’s. I think when it comes to building materials, tile, carpet, etc. you gotta have bricks and mortar. But stuff like faucets, shower heads, nails, gaskets, etc., not so much. I see a future for smaller, community oriented hardware stores like ACE, etc.
The other problem big box stores are going to face is theft. There is a reason there aren’t many big box stores in countries with a lot of poor people. One minimum wage slave to guard several million dollars of product may not work in the future. It’s back to the local market where the salesman has a lot of incentive to keep people from stealing. That should create jobs and inflation and decrease our trade deficit. I’m surprised the FED hasn’t hired thieves to steal from big box stores.
It sure as hell didn’t work at HP when I worked there. The first year I started they had just busted a $3 million inside theft operation done by the low paid factory shlubs.
eco….
I’ll bet the execs stole $30 mill cause they needed nose candy, and none of them got fired or arrested
Where do HD/Lowe’s get most of their revenue from? Basic housing supplies (lumber, drywall, nails, etc.), or from the fancier stuff (appliances, faucets, etc.)?
If it’s the latter, then they’re probably in trouble.
Here in Tucson, I haven’t been in a busy Home Depot or Lowes store since 2005. Back then, you had to send a search party to find a store employee to help you.
Nowadays, it seems like a customer is cause for four of five of them asking you if you need help.
I foresee quite a contraction in this retail sector.
I haven’t set foot in a Best Buy in over 3 years, when I bought a 32″ flat panel TV. I don’t need another TV, stereo or PC so I won’t be buying one anytime soon, online or in a bricks and mortar store.
Those bricks and mortar will be replaced with cheaper bricks and mortar.
Sell Best Buy
Buy ProLogis, Fed Ex, and UPS
Those goods need to occupy some building on their way from the factory (wherever it is) to your home.
Best Buy has been building small stores in my city for a decade.
Kelloggs Stagflakes: Its what’s for breakfast.
Banker, it’s what’s for dinner.
I wouldn’t feed them to my dog. Would rather convert their decapitated corpses into bio-diesel or compost them for crop fertilizer.
DRINK!!!!
——————
Jobless claims rise more than expected
Reuters | 6/23/2011 | Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, a government report showed on Thursday, suggesting little improvement in the labor market this month after employment stumbled in May.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 429,000, the Labor Department said. The prior week’s figure was revised up to 420,000.
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable .”
John Kenneth Galbraith
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look
respectableworse than expected.If economists wished to study the horse, they wouldn’t go and look at horses. They’d sit in their studies and say to themselves, “what would I do if I were a horse?”
Ely Devons
A chemist, a physicist and an economist are stranded on an island. They have pletty of canned food, but no can opener. The chemist says “lets build a fire to heat up the food until the can bursts.” The physicist chimes in “or, we could build a catapult and launch the cans against those rocks over there.” The economist, not wanting to be outdone adds “on the other hand, we could assume we have a can opener…”
What if they unexpectedly stopped expecting?
That Cheney-Shrub 8-year Legacy Epic Economic Failure is one tough nut, ain’t it?
Remember this golden oldie, kidz?
http://irregulartimes.com/boxgate.html
The Sticker Shock of Bush’s Economic Snow Job
Late in January 2003, George W. Bush celebrated the winter season by performing a snow job on the American people. As millions of Americans saw it on their television sets, Bush stood in a factory warehouse in St. Louis, surrounded by shelves full of boxes stamped “Made In U.S.A.”. In this wholesome, patriotic, blue-collar setting, he lectured his audience about how his program of special tax breaks for the rich would be “strengthening America’s economy”. What a great photo-opportunity it appeared to be. Standing behind the presidential podium in a factory located in America’s heartland, with boxes of products made right here in the good old U S of A., Bush must have been there to talk to a crowd of America’s workers, right? Wrong. This is where Bush’s snow job started…
This is where Bush’s snow job started…
Actually, it started 6 years before entering Yale as a cheerleader.
Leftie,
When you patronize your readers, they tend to disregard the good information that follows. Jfyi, a good many of us are neither “kidz,” nor do we appreciate being referred to as such by someone who apparently lacks both gravitas and considered perspective.
Thank you. Dear.
I think this mess goes back further than that. A 30 year legacy is more like it.
Yup, but things really have accelerated these past 10 years.
Just how many years have we been having 400K+ first time claims for unemployment bennies? Is it already three, or is it more?
A 30 year legacy is more like it
lil Opie = 2 years 5 months
30 - 2.5 = 27.5
“TrueAnger™”: “…find the roving Faux News Inc. van, get a rope coaxial feed cable, find the non-Hawaiian half-breed, build the hangin’ platform!”
Baked in the pineapple upsidown cake, as it were.
Did I not predict more “unexpectedly?”
http://rightwingnews.com/legal/homeowners’-associations-becoming-unavoidable-and-quasi-governmental/
Homeowners’ Associations Becoming Unavoidable and Quasi-Governmental
rightwingnews.com
Homeowners’ Associations (“HOAs”) are losing money due to the high numbers of foreclosures and are scrambling to make up for it by assessing additional fees on the remaining homeowners. Banks are taking longer to foreclose on homes, leaving homes in limbo for months on end with no monthly fees coming.
sorry but it’s a right wing editorial and we know righties are dummies!
Weren’t HOAs a conservative/libertarian alternative to corrupt, wasteful local government? Yes, I believe they were. You see, instead of having those well-tanned liberal parasites downtown run things, we’d have local ‘producer’ types run their own neighborhoods, without all that government waste, government intrusion, high paid do-nothing government workers, etc.
We’d finally get to see the superiority of the Free Market over the wastefulness of evil, socialist Big Government.
How’s that working out?
No, you got it all wrong. HOA’s are the brain child of conservative land developers and their partnership with the corrupt local government liberal parasite cronies. The cronies get to collect a lot more taxes without having to provide so much more city services.
Yup. We have a nice park in our neighborhood. High end playground, soccer field with goalposts and nets, etc. It’s 100% accessible by the public, no fences or gates.
Guess who pays for its upkeep? Hint: Not the city.
“The cronies get to collect a lot more taxes ”
‘Round here, HOAs, or any neighborhood that provides some or all of their own services (trash collection, road maintenance, etc), pay lower rates of taxes.
A locally-run self-government system seems to be exactly what most of our libertarian posters posit as their preferred style of governance. One free from the union rules, regulations, waste, unfairness, lazy workers, etc that they claim come with larger government. Well, aren’t HOAs a good example what they call for? And all that can go wrong with the theory, when it finally meets reality?
Well, no. But they are a pretty stupid thing.
Weren’t HOAs a conservative/libertarian alternative to corrupt, wasteful local government?
Yes. They weren’t.
My neighborhood HOA just voted a member off the board who was trying to sell/give control of our parks and greenways to the local indy utility agency.
In exchange for a large envelope of cash slipped quietly into his intentionally unlocked parked car.
Power corrupts. You know the rest. Whether at the HOA level or the halls of CONgress, they’re always going to come out ahead, at our expense of course.
Grant renewed to help immigrants be safe from crime
Palm Beach Post
Posted: 9:30 a.m. Thursday, June 23, 2011
LAKE WORTH — The U.S. Department of Justice has renewed for two years a Smart Policing grant program that focuses on preventing and prosecuting crimes against immigrants.
The $275,000 renewal grant will allow the program, which would have ended in September, to continue until September 2013, said Lt. David Moss of the Palm Beach County Sheriff’s District 14 office in Lake Worth.
The sheriff’s office won the original $500,000 grant in 2009 and began the program to educate immigrants in Lake Worth, particularly Guatemalans, about practices that can keep them from becoming crime victims.
The sheriff’s office used the grant money in part to hire a multi-lingual outreach coordinator and to pay for a robbery detective who follows up on crimes against immigrants.
– Willie Howard
Flame Suit: ON!
A few years ago, at the height of the bubble, there was a crime wave in Mid-Pinellas against anybody that looked Mexican/South American. Basically, because they were illegal, they all carried cash and walked/rode bikes. The word got out, and young, aggressive criminals started rolling all of the marks - they were ATMs. Specific police agencies tasked officers to deal with it.
This is where I may differ from a libertarian perspective. I believe that freedom starts with safety, and that if a specific class of people are targeted for a crime, they deserve extra, temporary protection, which in the case I described, happened. This is America, we don’t tolerate that nonsense. A crime on our soil is a crime regardless of the victim. I just know from my own personal experience that issues like this become political hot buttons.
Please note: I’ve neither advocated for a “police state” nor “wasting of taxpayer dollars.” I’m not sure six figure grants are needed, but I am all for problem-oriented policing.
A lot of that crime was “illegal on illegal” crime, as I understand it. It definitely is around here. When an illegal has some money and word gets out, his “compadres” profile him. Big time. They create their own problems.
At any rate, I’m gonna put the word out around here that Lake Worth is a safe zone for illegals.
But I do think a grant to educate citizens about crimes committed by illegals would be a good idea, too. Might have prevented the attempted robbery/rape on the old lady who used to live across the street from me.
If it looks like a duck, waddles like a duck and quacks like a duck, profile, profile, profile.
if a specific class of people are targeted for a crime, they deserve extra, temporary protection
Does that protection include Americans who are targeted by illegals when they move to the U.S. and use our schools, hospitals, roads, Etc ????
Calm down and think for a minute…
Illegals also get preyed on by unscrupulous employers. I’ll get flamed for this, but there should be mechanisms for them to report crimes or rip-offs against them without fear of being arrested themselves. I’m libertarian leaning, Muggy, and share your belief that if illegals are being singled out for victimization, they should have recourse and people who look out for their interests withing the system. There are some things nobody should have to put up with, and the criminal element should not be able to target them with impunity.
There are some things nobody should have to put up with, and the criminal element should not be able to target them with impunity.
so we should ignore the fact the criminal is a criminal just because he’s being victimized as well?
They’re welcome to report the crime/seek protection, but I really don’t think that means we should ignore their lawbreaking. They’ll get protected, but should get deported immediately (IMO).
Thank you, Muggy.
New Home Sales:
300k. In this humungous country? that isn’t sh*t. What if they only sold three houses in the whole country? Would that still be spun as positive?
Given that a large part of the jobless recovery is due to zero construction jobs coming back, this is part of the coiling spring (in that once there is some additional construction, it will necessarily increase the jobs numbers).
In addition to simply housing a greater and greater population, the US needs to build ~100-200k homes per year to simply replace structures that are destroyed/need to be torn down.
Don’t know when, but eventually this 300k number will be WAY higher.
Hmmm…
“Rumors Fly As Floodwaters Rise Around Nuclear Plants
The NRC said “Unusual Event” declarations remain in effect at both plants, the lowest of four levels of emergency notification. NRC officials said close contact is being maintained with the National Weather Service, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and both plants.”
http://nebraska.statepaper.com/vnews/display.v/ART/2011/06/23/4e0317ffcd968
Was just reading the other day about how the Fukushima nuclear plant debacle is far worse than we know. And an interesting statistic on how there was a spike in miscarriages in the Pacific Northwest in the aftermath of the event.
I’ve always said that humans do not, at this time, have what it takes to deal with nuclear energy and Germany has wisely realized that and is doing something about it.
“Germany has wisely realized that and is doing something about it”
They invaded France and shut down the nukes right on their border?
They decided to enact mass conservation?
They went with greater efficiency?
Nope. Coal. Awesome!
I will pre-empt FruitBoy by posting this one from the WSJ online:
The Food Stamp Crime Wave
“Millionaires are now legally entitled to collect food stamps … Thirty-five states have abolished asset tests for most food-stamp recipients … a magnet for abuses and absurdities”
Unbelievable! With the debt the government is throwing out there the end result isn’t going to be pretty. Anything to keep money in the economy in the hope of a turn-around that isn’t in the cards.
This really was flagged when the lottery winner was eligible for food stamps. But as I said at the time the story being ignored is how little a person can make if they park money in a bank so they do not exceed the income guidelines. You know it just makes public worker pensions harder to defend. A person who does not want to risk their money now get less money from five million in assets than a public sector worker on a pension. This is only occurring so the banksters can keep the spread between their cost of funds and what they are lending to the public. This allows them to keep foreclosures off the market, receive their bonuses and take a percentage of losses each quarter.
P.S. both Bush and Obama serve the banksters who have substituted food stamps for good jobs. Bread and circus, we are becoming a modern day Rome which is just what their limited government framework was designed to prevent.
Food stamps aren’t for the poor.
They are to keep the poor from rioting before the elite have stolen everything from the middle class and to keep their farms and food companies profitable.
This is only occurring so the banksters can keep the spread between their cost of funds and what they are lending to the public. This allows them to keep foreclosures off the market, receive their bonuses and take a percentage of losses each quarter. ”
Fed is helping the banks help themselves to the spread. My wages are going down because I’m paid in dollars too bad for me
A technical dollar rally here and there the trend is still down
Supply Chain Management = Outsourcing will a weak dollar slow this down ? Or just lower working American’s standard of living? And when we all get paid in Pesos who will the bank want to loan money to anyway ?
Gobal economic leveling is in full swing now when will it stop ?
both Bush and Obama serve the banksters who have substituted food stamps for good jobs.
I call BS. Bush* allowed jobs to go overseas and hid the damage with a housing bubble. TARP was written by Hanky Panky Golden Sacks and signed by Bush. By the time Obama got there it was too late to do little more that contain the damage. Obama then tried to create and save jobs with his stimulus package, and was tarred and feathered for “government spending.” To this day commenters recite how much deficit Obama incurred in his first two years as if it were the Pledge. The Dem Congress tried to pass a bill to taking away tax breaks for the outsourcers and the Republicans filibustered it. (calling ecofeco…) Obama tried to free up job-lock by offering public option health insurance, and we know how that went.
———-
*I was going to say Bush and Clinton, but I’m thinking of those IT which were created during Clinton’s second term, but outsourced to India during Bush’s first term. Nobody noticed because they were all watching Flip This House.
Yes, Bush hit the gas and steered the car toward a cliff. Obama took over in 2009 and pushed the gas down a little harder. Both handled things incorrectly. I wish we’d stop arguing over who screwed up more. Bush created a lot of the mess and Obama has done a very poor job cleaning it up.
Gee, I wonder why?
Republicans block ending offshore jobs tax breaks | Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68R40I20100928
The more I think about this the more I come to the conclusion that the government has to make it more difficult for corporations to offshore job or the republic is doomed. We have to narrow the trade gap. You can’t import more than you export indefinitely.
13 nuclear powered aircraft carrier task groups, several hundred nuclear bombers and several thousand ICBMs says we can.
I bet he’ll leave out this part of the article:
“Food-stamp enrollment surged before Mr. Obama took office. The number of food-stamp recipients on George W. Bush’s watch rose by more than 50%, even before the recession hit in 2007. As Slate reporter Annie Lowrey wrote for the online magazine last December, President Bush and his food-stamp chief Eric Bost “went on a quiet crusade to expand eligibility, increase enrollment, and reduce stigma around nutrition aid.” “
Cool! So it was actually George Walker Bush, and not Obama, who was the food stamp president. And history will show the recession began in December 2007 on Bush’s watch, despite the failed attempt of Bush’s Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson to suppress the news of its onset.
..and that Repubs blocked job creation. (see my usual post above)
eco:
Bush was the greatest President in creating Underground jobs….i always had cash jobs….but since the big OH came in most of it disappeared and turned into “intern” no pay gigs..
“Underground jobs…”
Kudos to those who don’t have aboveground jobs but make do with the underground. Economies have a way of surviving, despite the best efforts of governmental folly to kill them.
Ok, so let’s agree to blame everything wrong in the world on conservatives and republicans, now what is your positive solution to get us out of the mess we are in. All this blame game makes me think you are nothing but economists cloaked as sheep. It’s time to solve problems, not wallow in self pity.
Ok, so let’s agree to blame everything wrong in the world on conservatives and republicans,
Quit accelerating up to the straw man that “everything” can be blamed on conservatives. That said, I fully intend to play Blame Game for as long as it takes. Anybody with ANY sense — that is, every scientist and engineer out there — know that you need to find the root cause first. Address the root cause (not the symptoms) and the problem will disappear.
now what is your positive solution to get us out of the mess we are in.
I’ve put forth my ideas many times, but I’ll do it again just for you.
1. Stop the outsourcing (cue ecofeco about the tax break bill which the Republicans filibustered).
2. Single payer health care, where the healthy pay into the same kitty as the sick, instead of giving the healthy money to the private CEO’s and passing the sick off onto the taxpayer. That might be enough to allow some of the 60-65 crowd to retire, or spouses to quit jobs, freeing up more jobs for the young. Not to mention freeing up a lot of income for the regular families who will pay less in premiums. (oh wait, the Republicans are opposing all of that too.)
3. Step up enforcement of laws on illegal labor to free up jobs for kids who can’t afford/hack college. Better yet, start a scholarship program for trade school.
4. Bring the troops home to spend less on nationbuilding other nations and more on building the US. (Didn’t Obama just give a speech on this?) If the troops need something to do, they can help out in the border drug war and shore up the border.
5. For housing, allow a kinder/gentler BK for FB’s. Depending on income and the house, the FB can either declare BK and get a cramdown (which will trap them in the house), or get kicked out to an apartment quick, where at least they can break even and rebuild.
6. For shadow inventory, make homes revert to their tax assesment value after a certain period of time. Then banks won’t be able to use mark-to-fantasy to shore up balance sheets with the last inflated sale price. They’ll put that stuff on the market right quick. As a bonus, you may see a boom in home renovation as people buy cheap houses to ifx up and live in.
7. Taxes: treat all income the same, be it capital gains or wages. Make companies pay taxes every year like individuals. Knock out the loopholes and lower rates, if that will help. Institute a tax on stock transactions which take advantage of the microsecond market as opposed to truly investing in a company. Don’t change the repatriation rate, but allow a tax break on repatriation for every new job, every year. That is, none of the “we give you tax breaks and HOPe you create a job.” No, give the gov a shiney new W-2 proving that you created a job, and THEN (and only then) will you get your tax break.
8. Banking (hat-tip to Polly): make banks hold the riskiest 10% of their loans. That will tighten lending immediately.
How many solutions would you like me to generate for you?
“Ok, so let’s agree to blame everything wrong in the world on conservatives and republicans”
You make it sound like a belief problem instead of a fact.
I think the hope was they could delay the crash until after GW was out of office. Starving people in the news creates panick which could have triggered the MBS landslide.
President Bush and his food-stamp chief Eric Bost
Can I call him a “czar,” just like Rushie? PLEEEZE?
Can I call him a “czar,” just like Rushie? PLEEEZE?
Please don’t. It really riles them up. TParty Czar interview at 5:38. Great interviews. Did this guy win an Emmy?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUPMjC9mq5Y
Living in cities sucks! Scientifically proven!
“Scientists have confirmed what every urbanite has long suspected – life in the city is more stressful. Researchers have shown that the parts of the brain dealing with stress and emotion are affected by living among the crowds.”
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2006988/A-rural-life-better-Living-concrete-jungle-really-stressful-make-vulnerable-depression.html#ixzz1Q6uLGc66
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2006988/A-rural-life-better-Living-concrete-jungle-really-stressful-make-vulnerable-depression.html
Living in the city cannot possibly be as stressful as living on a boat; constantly worrying about that cloud in the distance, the rocking of the waves, the noise and alarming clatter of birds and fish jumping, the sensory depravation without sirens, horns, trains and all that stuff. The neighbors, OMG, can’t even say hello to anybody after 5PM without social pressure to have a cold beer. People hardly wearing any clothes, oh the humanity.
Go to the city people, it’s your only chance.
Yes, I am somewhat jealous, Blue. I hope to emulate some day…
Georg Simmel and others wrote about this a century ago.
Modern man has outpaced his evolutionary abilities, so of course there will be frictions - physical and mental. Consider how much of your daily routine was not possible ten, fifty, or a hundred years ago.
Semiconductors and automobiles…
Heck, I was toting a Discman and actual CDs to the gym only 6 years ago! (Hang on. Stop the treadmill. I’ve got to change to the next CD.)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-drops-as-international-apf-4250255497.html?x=0
The PTB must be really desperate to take this action. First, they tried to manipulate oil lower and were only able to move WTI in a meaningful way. Now, they are releasing supplies which were meant for a real emergency. If a pipeline blows in Saudi Arabia now look for $10-12 gas. In the end they cannot stop peak oil and the rising prices but they sure are trying to prevent the free market from working.
Don’t worry Dan, peak oil is behind us. Also, peak housing, peak shopping malls, peak office buildings, peak Dubai, peak sunspots, peak global flooding, peak China, peak ozone depletion, peak Mexican Flu and a bunch of other nasty stuff. Life is good!
“…but they sure are trying to prevent the free market from working.”
You’re killing me Que-Dan, Ha!
Goldenman$ucks Inc. (SCOTU$ person) = “TrueFinancialCult™” / “True$erialLiquiditist™”
Wall Street Gets Eyed in Metal Squeeze:
by Tatyana Shumsky and Andrea Hotter (Matt Day and Liam Pleven) contributed to this article.
Friday, June 17, 2011
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and other owners of large metals warehouses are being scrutinized by the London Metal Exchange after being accused by users like Coca-Cola Co. of restricting the amount of metal they release to customers, inflating prices.
Ho ho, hah hah, hehehehehehe, BwaHaHaAhHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! (Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb-thrower™)
Goldman, through its Metro International Trade Services unit, owns the biggest warehouse complex in the LME system, a series of 19 buildings in Detroit that house about a quarter of the aluminum stored in LME facilities.
says it can take months to get the metal the company needs, even though warehouses are allowing aluminum to come in much more quickly. Warehouses, meantime, collect rent and other fees.
(Oh my, so this is the way the “smart” ones do it!)
“The situation has been organized artificially to drive premiums up,” said Dave Smith, Atlanta-based Coca-Cola’s strategic procurement manager. “It takes two weeks to put aluminum in, and six months to get it out.”
In recent years, major investment banks like Goldman and J.P. Morgan and commodities houses like Glencore have been snapping up warehouses around the world, turning the industry from a disperse grouping of independent operators into another arm of Wall Street. The LME has licensed about 600 warehouses around the world.
The transformation has raised questions about whether the investment banks, which also have big commodity-trading arms, are able to use their position as owners of warehouses to manipulate prices to their advantage.
Goldman’s Detroit warehouse holds about 1.15 million tons out of a total 4.62 million tons in LME-approved warehouses.
Since Goldman bought Metro early last year, the wait time for aluminum delivery in Detroit has increased to about seven months.
Goldman is earning $378,000 a day on rental costs, or about $79 million in seven months.
“Warehouses are making a lot more money,” said Jorge Vazquez, managing director of aluminum at Harbor Commodity Research. Goldman is “really the winner clearly, because if you want to take metal away from the location, you have to wait up to 10 months to get your metal out, and in the meantime you’re paying rent.”
“The system is set up like a funnel, so you can dump large amounts of metal in the front end and only get a little out at the back end,” said David Wilson, director of metals research at Société Générale SA. “It enables a situation where the rules of the warehousing system are taken advantage of.”
The final demand will determine the prices. Don’t doubt speculators are hoarding commodities. But why, could it be that they see supply exceeding demand? That is what peak oil is all about. Government should be working to create more supply. Obama announcing more drilling might help a little. Cutting the use of oil by substituting natural gas would be even better. if he would have spent more on pushing NGVs and less on trying to prop up the housing market we would probably all be better off.
Of course, the government manipulation of housing is starting to show results:
http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/best-and-worst-cities-for-renters.html
By keeping supply off the market they have pushed up rent prices. Seems to only benefit the banksters. Back to oil, I would not have a problem with GS speculating if they were using their own money. However, when they are using cheap fed money, I do have a problem. But that is a problem with government not the free market. Price signals given by speculators can cause increased production prior to a real shortage. That is not bad it is good. Gas lines are worse than gas price increases. The FSU which lacked price signals constantly had shortages and a poorly performing economy.
Dan, how long do you think it would take to ramp up the infrastructure for natural gas cars? By that, I mean cars which cost the same as gasoline cars, a network of dealers and repair shops and AAA trucks, and a network of fueling stations to where people feel comfortable in getting gas on a long trip?
I’ve posted this before, but IMO it’s better to do the big switch to electric rather than natural gas. Peak natural gas may not be much farther away than peak oil, especially if we switch all our cars to it.
DVD’s went straight to Blu-Ray.
it’s better to do the big switch to electric rather than natural gas.
My friend has a N/G car here. Americans would never go for them because it makes a really funny sound when you fill them up.
All taxis in Rio and Sao Paulo run on nat gas. The air is cleaner but the retrofitted tank in the trunk takes half the trunk space.
As of 2009 Argentina had 1,807,186 NGV’s with 1,851 refueling stations across the nation,[1] or 15% of all vehicles;[22] and Brazil had 1,632,101 vehicles and 1,704 refueling stations,[1] with a higher concentration in the cities of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.[7][22] wiki
“big switch to electric rather than natural gas.”
Even though it’s the right move, it’s never going to happen. You need a “filling station” an oil type infrastructure for cars running on gasoline, nat gas or (god forbid) hydrogen. Not needed for electric.
And fully electric cars have far fewer parts to fix and that’s going to cut repair revenue.
So now you’ve got the car industry and the oil industry against you.
Tony Montana — “You wanna go to war? I take you to war, hokay?”
“Peak natural gas may not be much farther away than peak oil, especially if we switch all our cars to it. ”
That’s a good point. While it’s estimated that we have enough natural gas for 100 years, that’s assuming that consumption doesn’t rise any faster than it has for the last ten years. A spike in demand would raise the price too much, I think.
But, if we simply ran all our govt. and private fleet vehicles (taxis, shuttles, USPS, FedEx, UPS, etc), we would cut foreign oil consumption sharply. Now, when electric cars become a bit more long-range, and when they can be charged while driving (smart highways!), Americans will buy them. That will be a winning mix of cng/electric.
The natural gas fueling infrastructure is already in place in many states like Calif. Others have nothing. That’s not an expensive fix, relatively speaking, to throw up a couple of filling stations in Nevada along I-80. Currently, there are ZERO.
Interesting site:
http://www.cngprices.com/
You can easily and cheaply retrofit gasoline burning engines to run on natural gas. Also, last time I checked, a lot of the country has natural gas piped directly into their house so I can’t imagine refilling would be much of a problem for them. This still seems like the best short term option.
Electric cars can’t work on a large scale because they require batteries to store the power. Advanced batteries require heavy metals which are rare and expensive and mostly produced outside of this country. So we’d be substituting dependency on foreign oil with dependency on foreign heavy metals. And batteries are very toxic. How do we dispose of them on a large scale?
Admittedly, I’m not anything close to an expert on this topic so I’d love for someone to tell me what I’m missing, but I just don’t see how battery powered cars are any kind of solution. Need a different way of storing power.
“Advanced batteries require heavy metals which are rare and expensive and mostly produced outside of this country. So we’d be substituting dependency on foreign oil with dependency on foreign heavy metals.”
Perhaps, or maybe we just need to get back to producing them. From an interesting Popular Mechanics article:
“The U.S. still has plenty of rare earth elements left to mine—in Mountain Pass and elsewhere. Instead, those mines were simply driven out of business, undercut on price by Chinese companies that had lower labor costs, and also benefited from the fact that they were mining rare earth elements as a byproduct of profitable iron mining.”
http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/engineering/news/important-rare-earth-elements
Another great feature of natural gas-powered cars: No hazmat cleanup after a serious collision. Just a brief, hot fireball.
Electric car = don’t be economic girly man. Real men drive F-350’s.
Tough, tough toys for tough, tough boys!
Dan, can you not read? The article states SPECIFICALLY that GS’s takeover INCREASED delivery delays.
That aluminum is being bottle-necked at the warehouse, and not from production.
Demand destruction is really gonna hurt these guys.
Government should be working to create more supply.
Ha, this is your first “solution”? Ha!, Nice square box your contained in there Que-Dan,… any windows to the outside future world?.
Rising prices on declining volume…that sounds familiar. Isn’t that what happens just before bubble prices collapse?
Oh wait…
New Home Sales Dip In May As Prices Rise
by The Associated Press
Housing remains the weakest part of the U.S. economy, analysts say. Last year was the worst for new-home sales on records dating back half a century.
June 23, 2011
Fewer Americans bought new homes last month, the latest sign that the struggling housing market won’t rebound this year.
The Commerce Department says new-home sales fell 2.1 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 319,000 homes. That’s far below the 700,000 homes per year that economists say must be sold to sustain a healthy housing market.
The median sales price rose 2.6 percent from April to $222,600. That’s more than 30 percent higher than the median sales of price of older, re-sale homes.
…
New weekly claims for unemployment compensation seem stuck in the 400K+ range that indicates ongoing recession in the labor market. Perhaps it goes without saying that without jobs, there is little fundamental demand for housing. Luckily there are lots of all-cash investors out there snapping up foreclosure deals, or the housing market might be in a lot of trouble.
Jobless claims climb
U.S. applications for unemployment compensation rise by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 429,000.
Remember, the key word here is “new.”
The FOMC deserves credit for knowing when to say “when.”
June 23, 2011, 8:56 AM ET
With Fed sidelined, S&P likely to test 1,250 soon
Give Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke a little credit. He has a flair for the dramatic.
Anyone expecting a glimmer of a sliver of an iota of a suggestion that the U.S. central bank might initiate another round of quantitative easing to give the sputtering U.S. economy another nudge this summer was sorely disappointed by Bernanke’s press conference on Wednesday.
…
To those who say that real estate is not a good investment; properly(or luckily) timed, it can be very good. Timing is everything, though, and real estate probably does have more ups and downs than say stock investing but I always liked real estate because you could use it as a roof unlike stocks. I won big, then lost, in my dabbling as investor/landlord. I really have learned alot from the experience and will be more cautious with $$ in the future. Kicking myself for the indulgent spending I could have banked. I was making more money in equity and cash flow than I could spend so I figured it would always work that way, being naive to investing and new to making money without doing anything for it. I worked about 60 hours a week as a vegetable broker which worked great until I couldn’t move boxes anymore. This prompted our move to Bend from Santa Barbara; but Bend turned out to be red hot in equity gans as well so I felt like a king once again making more money than I could spend. The one thing I did know was that to realize equity gains I had to sell homes which got me flipping. But we never owned a home that we did not live in at least part time.
Originally I put up 60k hard saved dollars on a home in Santa Barbara in 1995. I had to look long and hard as my criteria included a less than 300k price tag and a second legal unit on premises.
I only wanted to park cash and to have somewhere to live that was not costly as rents were insane near UCSB. It started out that I had the 3/2 rented and had to come up with $500/month to cover mostly insurance and maintainance. I got a roomie paying $300 to share my bachelor pad and had my cheap rent.
Noticed in about 2000 that homes of similar quality were going for $500k and I was pleased. Rents had increased as well; downstairs tenants paid PITI plus maintainance($2000); roomie paid $300 as well.
I had hurt myself at work; before I quit veggies I put another saved chunk of money into the Bend real estate market(another two unit deal with a garage conversion). Mortgage was $600/month; rented it out for $1050, $700 plus $350 for the conversion.
Meanwhile; the SB two-unit home near UCSB I kept rented at $3500/month. I also cashed out 40k in a refi while keeping the payments the same; this helped as I had a handyman work on two baths and he found and mitigated lots of mold. “Toxic mold” cost 10k upon selling this home; no biggie as I sold it for 600k more than I paid for it. Lucky for me the handyman got rid of most of it as mold mitigation is a costly racket.
So I put down 85k in total for these two propeties, the one in Bend and the one in SB. They both cash flowed from day one. I sold the SB place; 860k. Sold the Bend home for 290k in 2006 (paid $130), and sold a third property that I purchased for 200k in 2005 for 350k in 2006.
So a total of almost 900k in equity gains. Of course I went all in with the money; doubling down-even though wife and I were scratching our heads thinking “how can this be true??”
We purchased our dream home for cash in Utah for 400k because I wanted to finish my schooling there(Masters degree, which I still have not pursued although I need to in order to keep my teaching license valid) and also my wife purchased another condo (my wife got a mortgage cuz NINJA loans were quickly exiting the scene and she had a higher fico) in a golf resort for 400k.
Now for the losses. In Utah, we did not get along with the LDS; choosing not to attend a neighborhood block party equalled ostrasizing our kids and ourselfs from the blissful setting up on the bench in Logan. We turned tail and returned to Central Oregon; entered into a lease to own that locked in the property for two years and the guy ended up flaking. Sold out of there in 2009 at $100k loss. Also poured about $175 into wife’s condo, from the 80k down and the three years of mortgage payments. Condo is worth $150k now although we paid $400k.
Before all our money was gone trying to pay the mortgage on the condo; I bought a house in my own name for 120k cash and it pays about 10k per year in rental income.
The only regrets I have is making so much money made me jaded to mundane things like budgeting and I blew through lots of cash. I also believed that real estate never goes down; I did not for me for 12 years plus which was my whole experience. Nevermind that I bought in a dip; rode the wave to the top; and was just lucky.
Even though it did not make me a millionaire; I sure spent like one for a decade(cars, euro vacations, toys, major medical uncovered by insurance). The very last investment pays about 5% considering the maintainance costs and insurance and taxes. When we lose this condo not having the rent money coming in from this home will be painful, as neither my wife or I have good incomes. We both have jobs that revolve around the school year so it will be a lean summer for sure. At least we are not quickly being foreclosed upon; and have some rental income. And my wife works at the grocery as well. She tells me that nearly EVERYONE at her job who is of age is on food stamps to survive. Also policemen and other blue collar types are using the Oregon Trail food card.
Making money in real estate; I did not take my teaching program very seriously; although I made good marks I did not work very hard on my internship therefore did not land a job out of the deal like many of my classmates. This I regret, cuz the easy money faucet has slowed to a trickle. I now substitute teach for how ever many years it takes to endear myself to whoever matters in finding a job. i also have spent a school year working 200 miles away from my family. I have been last hired,first fired two times as well which is frustrating but not unique.
That’s my story on this summer’s day and I am sticking to it!
Santa Barbara, Bend, Utah.
…dude…
Interesting story. Here’s my story bought and sold a condo in 1980’s made a little money bought again in 1989 and it crashed down lost about 1/3 on paper, kept RE until 2006 sold ( because I knew RE could go down right I bought in 1989 after all ) renting ever since.
Saved money because I’m a engineer I know its pretty easy to get laid off and you’re only as good as the project you are on, no union , no retirement constant threat of out sourcing, etc. matter of fact I had another lay off dream just last night, something about company merger, musicsal chairs and I’m out. This has been such a constant in my working life that I almost felt releived. Only laid off once company shut down a defense drawn down in the early 1990’s about the time I lost all my equity in RE investment mentioned above. Been through many many layoffs though, seen devastation on the ones let go. Been called into safe rooms while thoses outside were being served by professional ” layoff goons”
When will it be my time ? Like a soilder who knows eventually he ticket will be up.
Also have hurt back now 50 how many more years until I am too old to work 12 hour days and out smart the competition ?
Mike in Bend you had great optimisim you did what your past experiences shaped you into beleiving. My optimism went away in the early 1990’s.
and now its time to start working
I too sold at the top and I am spending the gains getting through this recession. I was in SB too, looked at Bend, opted for Santa Fe. Small world.
We supposedly sold at the top. But that was in a community w/a relatively significant commute for this particular area. To buy the same house/lot size in the same shape in our present location closer to most jobs we presently would have to cough up about $80k more. Doesn’t really feel like we’re king of the hill.
My last home has sold since that sale again for more money but they did do some additional improvements to it. I don’t think they made a cent when you consider mortgage closing costs and realtor fees. Maybe even a tad in the red. There are quite a few homes coming up for sale again that sold 2-3 years ago. I’m sure the realtors love the churn even if the owners are losing money.
I’m seeing a lot of this too. Which brings up another thing that irks me. What is the point of buying and selling in 2 years? If you can’t say with high probability that you’ll be staying for more than a few years (and preferably more like 7-10), rent!
I’m not sure if this is accelerating declines, or postponing them. Several I wanted to low-ball (or as I would say, value fairly) but couldn’t because there has been someone willing to pay the slightly off-peak asking price. At this rate, my home purchase will be sometime around 2017-ish.
Avocado kinda gives it away, heh. Old girlfriend has an avocado ranch in Goleta. I was raised in Somis right down the street from Moorpark. Dad was engineer at PMTC grew avos on the side. Saw Moorpark grow incredulously and merge with Simi; I grew up riding to Magic Mountian thru lots of orchards now turned into houses over the years.
Workwise, S.B. to L.A. was my area; so drove thru my chilhood stomping grounds 2-3x per week w/ vegetables bound for L.A. Stopped going thru with veggies long about 03; although I had already phased myself out(went to Bend to get teaching license 2000-2003; working veggies on summer breaks etc.) of the business while the bosses kid took over my position.
Fascinating stories. Thanks for sharing, everyone.
At least San Diego County home ownership went up in the 15-24 year old age group. (And that is the *only* age range in which it went up.)
Homeownership fell in fast-growing suburbs, census shows
By Lori Weisberg, Matthew Clark and Elizabeth Aguilera
9:27 p.m., June 22, 2011
Audra Yerxa, whose family lost their home to foreclosure, packs up toys for a move to New Mexico. Her son Waylon plays while his twin sister sleeps upstairs.
CHARLIE NEUMAN. U-T
The housing downturn of the past decade left its mark on dozens of San Diego County neighborhoods, in some cases driving down homeownership levels in the region’s fastest-growing suburbs while leaving many other areas largely untouched, new census data reveal.
From Eastlake and Otay Ranch in Chula Vista to upper middle-class enclaves like Carmel Valley and the southern portion of San Marcos, the proportion of households owning homes fell between 8 and 12 percentage points during a period when the overall rate for the entire county, at 54 percent, remained largely flat.
…
home ownership went up in the 15-24 year old age group
———-
15-24 age group? 15-17 year olds can buy houses? They can’t enter into legal contracts without a parental co-signer.
What does she know? She’s Canadian.
Obama’s re-election hopes sinking along with underwater homeowners
http://thechronicleherald.ca/Opinion/1250000.html
A housing market that’s worse than during the 1930s Depression? Check.
This drip-drip-drip of economic pain is eroding Obama’s popularity and could very likely seal his fate in 17 short months, when the president has to go back to the polls.
Canadian homeowners, cushioned by tough mortgage regulations and Canada’s relative prosperity, have largely been spared the nauseating tailspin that their American counterparts have endured in the three years since the economic meltdown took serious hold.
But the hardships of their neighbours to the south should be enough to make any compassionate Canadian shudder….
….The Obama administration is hoping desperately that things are beginning to slowly turn around, because homeowners feeling the pain will very likely decide to make the president share their hurt by depriving him of a second term.
Some may believe Obama’s been dealt a lousy hand, considering the U.S. economy was spiralling downward even before he’d won the Democratic nomination in 2008. His predecessor, George W. Bush, bequeathed him not an eagle, but an albatross.
The U.S. recession, nonetheless, has become Obama’s recession, and his political career may be dragged into a watery grave if those underwater homeowners are unable to somehow claw their way back to the surface.
Actually foreigners are more astute about US than most Americans, especially the ones in DC and WallStreet.
Actually foreigners are more astute about US than most Americans,
I know, I was being a smart aleck. Foreigners look at us through a different lens. They admire us for many things. Then they look at something like our “health-care” racket, shake their heads and tell me “You’s Americans are very dumb no?”
That’s why the “man stealing $1 to get health” care story is going viral around the globe. But now if foreigners give me any guff about America I just act all psycho, get in their face and scream “USA! USA! USA!” and that shuts them up. (except the Irish ones)
If I were a betting man, I’d bet they don’t give the guy the jail time he craves, and therefore will not receive the medical care he requires via that route.
“If I were a betting man, I’d bet they don’t give the guy the jail time he craves, and therefore will not receive the medical care he requires via that route.”
From what I understand, he has been given an appointment with a doctor. Still, the entire thing struck me as a political stunt rather than an act of desperation.
National health care is not all the best either just read a story of a woman who was in hospital in labor, bur not monitored properly - long story short her womb ruptured, no one realized quick enough - started giving her oxygen when they realized something was wrong ( didn’t realize oxygen not plugged in) - both baby and mother died - where? England - where all the trained nurses go to Australia ($$$) and they hire African and east European nurses to train up.
National health care is not all the best either
That’s tragic. And nothing is “the best” but public health policy should not be decided because of anecdotes. Cold hard facts and results are what matters. Especially because we’re “broke”. USA and England have comparable health stats but:
Health care costs per person (it’s online)
Great Britain: $2,500 100% of population insured
USA: $7,500 1/3 of pop. un or under-insured.
“National health care is not all the best either just read a story of a woman who was in hospital in labor, bur not monitored properly”
FWIW, our “for profit” healthcare system screws up all the time as well.
Indeed, Colorado. Our healthcare system has many, many anecdotes just like this one.
“Canadian homeowners, cushioned by tough mortgage regulations and Canada’s relative prosperity, have largely been spared the nauseating tailspin that their American counterparts have endured in the three years since the economic meltdown took serious hold.”
Huh? So we’re doing something wrong down here? The run-up wasn’t the problem, the downturn is? You mean those crap-shacks in Vancouver really are worth CAD $1M?
Our 2011 denial is just as good as your 2006 denial.
We had a mini crash in 2008 which was countered with stimulous and falling interest rates. Prices in most markets are higher than before that downturn. Taken together, many people see this as proof that we’re immune. Recently though more information has been coming out about our growth in indebtedness, especially with HELOCs.
It’s different here in the details and timing, but endstate will look familiar.
I think that was about the last time I was in there too. Monitors/TVs are worth buying in a brick-and-mortar store so that you can see what the picture looks like before buying it.
I have a computer mouse whose scroll wheel has decided that spinning in two directions is too hard. So much for scrolling up to the top of a web page. Ditto for scrolling down. It just doesn’t wanna.
So, looks like a trip to Best Buy to try computer mice is in my future. I’d like something more ergo-friendly than the flat-on-the-desk thing I have now. Any suggestions?
Dont go to Best Buy, use Amazon, save money! BB suckz of you try to return something.
Go to BB to test it then buy online.
That’s exactly what I plan on doing, Al. But thanks for putting it out there anyway.
Unless the store is very close, the cost of gas makes it impractical to go out and shop for such a trivial item. Worried about ergonomics? You spend too much time on your computer.
Unless the store is very close, the cost of gas makes it impractical to go out and shop for such a trivial item.
I don’t need to buy any gasoline. I get around by bicycle.
Better yet, the nearest Best Buy is only three or four miles away. Even in this weather, I’ll hardly break a sweat.
Logitech. Inexpensive and reliable. Check reviews on CNET -
Where’s The Next Housing Bubble?
http://financialedge.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0411/Wheres-The-Next-Housing-Bubble.aspx#ixzz1Q7Sc0uIF
Brazil
Housing prices in Brazil have nearly doubled in the last three years, …The country’s second largest city, Rio de Janeiro, is gearing up to host the 2014 Soccer World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics, both huge boosts to economic activity and the housing market. Rio, which is expected to be among the world’s largest economic centers by 2016, has plans to pump billions of dollars into sports-related projects - from stadiums to airport renovations…..Brazil’s economy grew 7.5% in 2010, supported by record high employment rates and strong consumer confidence in its growing middle class….
China
China’s housing market has drawn concerns as its investment in residential property represented 6.1% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2010. This is the same level that the United States reached in 2005, just before the housing market peaked….
France
The housing market in France has been climbing, with home prices rising close to 9% on average in 2010. Paris, the city of love, saw price increases of 18%….
Haiti
A strong international presence has inflated the cost of housing in Haiti. Even before the devastating January 2010 earthquake, Haiti’s market was largely driven by foreign organizations residing in the small country….
Sweden
From 1997 to 2007, housing prices in Sweden nearly doubled; from 1996 to 2007, prices nearly tripled in five of Sweden’s eight regions…..
We’ll wait for you guys at the bottom!
The sports stadium craze must be one of the classic bubble symptoms. The debt will linger long after the smoke of the games fades away.
What never ceases to amaze me is how cities fight tooth and nail to host an Olympiad when the always end up in hock for decades paying off instructure that for the most part has no other use. At least with a World Cup they try to reuse existing stadiums.
Didn’t Montreal finally finish paying off its 1976 Olympics debt a few years ago?
What never ceases to amaze me is how cities fight tooth and nail to host an Olympiad when the always end up in hock for decades paying off instructure that for the most part has no other use.
Let me run something by you all and see what you think. The Olympics in Rio might be “different”. lol, OK please hear me out.
Here are the differences.
1. Rio was already one of the world’s tourist centers BUT millions stayed away because of the perceived danger. A successful Olympics can change minds on the safety issue leading to increased tourism. Right now Rio can’t handle much increased tourism because of lack of hotel rooms. They are now building about 20,000 new hotel rooms in Rio. Did Sydney, Barcelona, Beijing, London, Atlanta or Athens share this situation?
2. Raw physical beauty combined with a reputation of sexy, fun loving people. The visuals from the Rio Olympics will be like a travel agency ad in every living room watching. There is no city in the world with the topographic visuals of Rio. And there is almost no city in the world with the sexy people (deserved or not) reputation of Rio. Did Sydney, Barcelona, Beijing, London, Atlanta or Athens also have this situation? Beijing, Atlanta sexy? Beautiful?
3. Brazil is riding high now. If they are riding higher in 2016 and my 2 points above are valid, the Rio Olympics if done well can be a good investment for the nation of Brazil.
No?
True, but won’t the World Cup basically accomplish the same objective for Brazil (tourism promotion)? I know some stadiums (like Maracana) are being refurbished, but those improvements will be used for decades.
True, but won’t the World Cup basically accomplish the same objective for Brazil (tourism promotion)?
I’d say partially redundant but more so a 2fer. Some of the infrastructure upgrades for the 2014 World Cup are needed to be done for the 2016 Olympics anyway.
2 years apart is enough time apart for the Brazil “ads” and they are 2 different events with slightly different markets.
Of course a big concern is if Brazil can pull it off well. They are already behind on many projects and the clock is ticking even for the Latins.
I have a friend who just got back from Brazil - his fiance is from there and in the process of becoming a US citizen, so they went to visit her parents. Short story is he returned with the same hush-toned “Oh my god people live like that” stories I had of Jamaica. He’s an A/C repairman too, not Mr Fancy Pants or anything.
He said the fancy parts of the cities are cool, the countryside beautiful, but the parts where regular people live are half past god awful.
He said at her house, he heard gunfire all night and saw a polluted river of sewage, scary amounts of drug dealing [he dealt drugs a bit in high school i've been told, so perspective on that] and has no desire to go back ever again (course he didn’t tell his fiance that, or at least I don’t think he did since they are still engaged). So I guess as long as Brazil funnels people to the tourist traps, then it will be successful. A lot of up and coming places are like that.
He said the fancy parts of the cities are cool, the countryside beautiful, but the parts where regular people live are half past god awful.
He said at her house, he heard gunfire all night and saw a polluted river of sewage, scary amounts of drug dealing
It’s here. Where in Brazil? But what you describe is not anymore where “regular” people live. You are describing where the very poor live. Now I’d guess that to be about 20% of the population down from about 30% 10 years ago.
But the really important thing is, is she hot?
But the really important thing is, is she hot?
Ofcourse she is. Even Rosie O’Donnel would be a babe if she was from Brazil.
FWIW, I had a huge crush on a brasilian coed when I was in College. She was a senior and I was a lowely freshaman. Was able to mutter few hellos and how are you for the whole year. I was sad when she graduated and left for Chicago but at the same time I felt like a ton of weight lifted off me.
“But the really important thing is, is she hot?”
If she’s from Brazil, she’s hot. We drive alot of exchange students here at UC Davis. Their gene pool is blessed, like no other.
“The Olympics in Rio might be “different”.”
Of course Rio is different, but the economics will play out the same. She’ll get quite a rush looking at herself all dressed up and then the bill will come due.
You are describing where the very poor (in Brazil) live.
Or maybe not. Maybe newly lower-middle class next to a dirt poor favela. It’s complicated here. A first world and 3rd world country living in the same space.
“What never ceases to amaze me is how cities fight tooth and nail to host an Olympiad when the always end up in hock for decades paying off instructure…”
Private the profit, socialize the costs. What’s so amazing about that?
This is one of the best articles I’ve seen on the Brazilian housing situation. (a lot of numbers (but a few I question but hey it’s Brazil), history, trends, economics and math)
Brazilian Rent Prices Booming, Analysts Fear Bust
http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/brazilian-rent-prices-booming-analysts-fear-bust-57389.aspx
Skyrocketing rental prices in Brazil over the past year have some analysts comparing its housing market with that of the U.S. before the recession crippled home values. Prices are up more than 24% from last April, with the average price for a new property in Ipanema, Rio de Janeiro’s most expensive district, rising to US$8,212. (per sq. m.) Major contributing factors are increasing wealth in the nation, a more stable economy, a growing population and the availability of credit. Experts note, however, that interest rates are also on the rise, and the debt burden has spiked sharply in the country, causing fear of a bubble. For more on this continue reading the following article from Global Property Guide.
“a culturally rich metropolis” (with) “unvarnished grit” Median income -4% of US median but houses -35% of US median, 6.7% unemployment rate (Kansas)* and “cheap” houses. But don’t tell anyone….
http://travel.nytimes.com//2010/05/16/travel/16hours.html
KANSAS CITY is known for its barbecue, bebop and easy-does-it Midwestern charm. But a decade-long effort to revitalize the city’s downtown has transformed this former jazz mecca, which straddles the Kansas-Missouri border, back into a culturally rich metropolis. The city’s standing will be further bolstered next year when the much-anticipated Kauffman Center for the Performing Arts opens, giving a sleek new home to the symphony, opera and ballet. True, Kansas City is no backwater, but don’t expect high polish. In fact, it’s the city’s unvarnished grit that may be its best asset.
*http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/20000.html
Today for the heck of it, I checked Zillow for my old haunts in Ohio. Dozens of small ranches on 1/4 acre in the $100-$110K range. Around here, it’s a struggle to find an SHF that is sub $200K. Dangit.
Where in Ohio? I lived in Cleveland and Lakewood, campus and Clintonville areas of Columbus, and Madisonville and Mariemont in Cincinnati.
West side of Columbus. I used to enjoy driving around Hilliard and Plain City. But I felt insecure in the job and didn’t buy, good thing too, as my fears were borne out.
Looking on Zillow, it looks like the Z’estimates haven’t decreased that much in the past couple years.
I would NEVER call Kansas City a metropolis. Big city? Sure. Metropolis? Not even close.
I live in a metropolis. It’s almost 100 miles from city to city limit. Then comes the ‘burbs… sprawling over 4 large counties.
I would NEVER call Kansas City a metropolis.
I wouldn’t either but it fits some of the definition.
A metropolis is usually a significant economic, political and cultural center for some country or region, and an important hub for regional or international connections and communications.wiki
had me a quite a laugh..
Here’s the Bernanke answer that I found fascinating yesterday:
The first portion makes sense to me; speeding the foreclosure process would help to clear the market.
The second portion seems directly contrary to this, when he speaks about _reducing_ the number of distressed sales; clearing the pipeline will eventually lead to reductions in distressed sales, but in the short-term it will lead to a higher proportion of distressed sales.
He must be brilliant to be able to hold mutually-contradictory thoughts in his head at the same time.
Here’s the quote:
“I think otherwise, um, I’d like to see, just further efforts to, first of all to, uh, modify loans where appropriate, to uh, and where not appropriate, to speed the process of foreclosure, and uh, disposition of the foreclosed homes, in order to clear the market, get these homes out of the pipeline, and allow people to, uhm, to operate in a market where they’re more confident that prices will be stable, rather than falling.
It’s interesting now that, although house prices overall are declining, all of that is concentrated in distressed properties; that is, houses which are not being sold on a distressed basis have much more stable prices than those which are being sold on a distressed basis. And that suggests that if we can, uh, reduce the current number, something than a third, maybe 40% of home sales which are on a distressed basis, that would do a lot to stabilizing the market, and helping give people confidence that they can buy, and not be buying into a falling market.”
i think bernanke is a smart dude…but he’s not one of those “fly by the seat of his pants” kinda smart dudes.
he’s a “let me go back to my office, shut the door with no distractions, and ponder this notion” kinda smart dude.
i am also much more the latter than the former.
type “a” smart dude - gregory house (i know…he’s just a tv character)
type “b” smart dude - ben bernanke
The longer this crisis drags on, the more I respect BB’s effort to stay the course. Even though I have felt the urge to hurl at some points in the progression of pronouncements.
For instance, the announcement that “subprime will be contained to $200bn” seemed lame; what was the content of that statement, and how did it pan out?
And the Spring 2009 “green shoots” meme? Look around you and you can figure out how well that panned out.
But he is still in the game, and this past week, when he supported a generally dismal FOMC statement, he showed that on occasion, he can be quite forthright in his assessments. And above all, he is still in the game.
Here in Tucson, the foreclosed homes I’m seeing are empty. And, in some cases, they’ve been empty for years.
So, the whole idea of keeping families in their homes is a moot point. Said families have already walked away.
Said families have already walked away.
Don’t worry someone will collect the money.
“He must be brilliant to be able to hold mutually-contradictory thoughts in his head at the same time.”
I believe that is a qualification requirement for his position.
Meet the Credit-Card King With $300,000 in Credit
June 23, 2011MarketWatch
Meet Pete D’Arruda: A man with 25 charge cards, more than a quarter of a million dollars in available credit — and a lot of financial self-control.
D’Arruda says he has more than $300,000 in available credit thanks to some 25 Visas, Mastercards, and individual store, airlines and gas cards — or about $12,000 per card. If he throws in his home-equity line of credit, it’s close to $400,000.
“It’s not taboo to have a bunch of credit cards,” said D’Arruda, a personal finance consultant who has been building his credit trove for about five years. “It’s about how you manage them.”
The founding principal of Capital Financial Advisory Group in Cary, N.C., and author of three personal-finance books is testing the more-is-better theory of credit cards: The more cards and available credit one has, the better the credit score — assuming, of course, the bills are paid promptly.
With a FICO credit score in the 810-815 range, it’s working for him. But credit-agency experts say it’s unnecessary and could create a financial maelstrom for those less diligent with their money.
“For many people they would end up with $350,000 in debt and that would not be a very good thing,” said Rod Griffin, director of public education for Experian.
D’Arruda charges everything from coffee to the rent for his office space on credit cards. He prides himself on his ability to manage them all and to pay them promptly, keeping himself from falling into a debt spiral.
“I like to pay my bills on time,” he said. “Even though I have all those outstanding potential balances, I don’t have many outstanding balances.”
“I like to pay my bills on time,” he said. “Even though I have all those outstanding potential balances, I don’t have many outstanding balances.”
What if he had no outstanding balances? That would really drive the CC companies nuts, wouldn’t it?
Yes. And probably most of his cards are of the “cash back” variety. Glad I saw this post as it reminded me to call my CC company and get another hundred dollar check from them.
Economic trouble puzzles Fed chief, too
Jun 22
WASHINGTON (AP) - The economy’s continuing struggles aren’t just confounding ordinary Americans. They’ve also stumped the head of the Federal Reserve.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told reporters Wednesday that the central bank had been caught off guard by recent signs of deterioration in the economy. And he said the troubles could continue into next year.
“We don’t have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting,” Bernanke said. He said the weak housing market and problems in the banking system might be “more persistent than we thought.”
It was the Fed chief’s most explicit warning yet that the economy will face serious challenges next year. For several months, he had said the factors working against economic growth appeared to be “transitory.”
(AP) Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke holds a news conference after a Federal Open Market Committee…
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The Fed cut its forecast for economic growth this year to a range of 2.7 percent to 2.9 percent from an April forecast of 3.1 percent to 3.3 percent. It also cut its forecast for next year to a range of 3.3 percent to 3.7 percent from an earlier 3.5 percent to 4.2 percent. The Fed also said unemployment would stay higher than it had expected earlier.
In a policy statement issued at the end of a two-day meeting, the Fed blamed the worsening economic outlook in part on higher energy prices and the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, which slowed production of cars and other products.
But at a press conference afterward, the second of what the Fed says will be regular question-and-answer sessions with reporters, Bernanke conceded the economy’s troubles are more puzzling and potentially more long-lasting than a pair of temporary shocks.
JOBS you effing idiots!
Oh they know, but no one wants to admit that the offshoring juggernaut is a problem.
“They’ve also stumped the head of the Federal Reserve.”
That gave me a post-midnight chuckle.
It couldn’t be that the Fed burned the chair legs from under the economy in the late-1990s, early-2000s, by keeping the pedal to the interest rate medal too low for too long?
Or that they still are doing it as I type?!
Down 200 at one point, the Dow ends down only 60 over the magic 12k mark. The PPT certainly earned its keep today.
‘Tis a mere flesh wound.
What’s to stop the Fed (or their flush Wall Street bankster minions) from supplying liquidity on down days, just because they say QE is done?
One of the parents have been picking up their kids in a convertible Maserati. Dang it! I try hard not to rubber neck. But just the engine noise gets me every time. You should have heard all the 7th/8th grade boys all a twitter.
Who is it that told me the rich are cutting back? She’s a smart girl but she really does need to admit she doesn’t have a grasp on it all.
A “new” listing came on the market today. Its not really “new” however, as evidenced by the snow on the ground in several photos. I guess the agent has given up putting any effort into marketing it. Can’t blame them. Redfin shows that this house has been on and off the market since 2007.
What a joke.
Would it have killed the realtor to drive out and take new pictures?
Oh yeah… forgot to mention that there is a very similar looking REO on the same street asking $100K less and at 160 DOM, it isn’t selling either.
LOL. I love stories with happy endings like this!
Private emails detail Obama admin involvement in cutting non-union worker pensions post-GM bailout
Matthew Boyle - The Daily Caller Matthew Boyle - The Daily Caller – Wed Jun 22, 3:12 pm ET
New emails obtained by The Daily Caller contradict claims by the Obama administration that the Treasury Department would avoid “intervening in the day-to-day management” of General Motors post-auto bailout.
These messages reveal that Treasury officials were involved in decision-making that led to more than 20,000 non-union workers losing their pensions. (General Motors not eager to be political talking point in 2012)
At a Wednesday hearing, the House Oversight Committee’s Subcommittee on Regulatory Affairs, Stimulus Oversight and Government Spending started pushing the Treasury Department for answers on the effects of the bailout and on how much of a role the department played in picking winners and losers.
The key point of the Wednesday hearing was to show that the Obama administration advised GM on how to eliminate the Delphi workers’ pensions. The evidence suggests Geithner’s team played a significant role in that process, despite claims to the contrary.
But the emails TheDC obtained show high-ranking Treasury Department officials, including Matthew Feldman of Treasury’s Auto Task Force, corresponding with senior GM officials on how to make certain decisions regarding who was going to win and who was going to lose.
“Have you guys begun a dialogue with the UAW over your desire to see the hourly plan terminated?” Feldman asked GM’s Rick Westenberg and Walter Borst in June 2009. This email shows Feldman and the Treasury Department were involved in GM’s day-to-day management.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/dailycaller/20110622/pl_dailycaller/privateemailsdetailobamaadmininvolvementincuttingnonunionworkerpensionspostgmbailout - -
These messages reveal that Treasury officials were involved in decision-making that led to more than 20,000 non-union workers losing their pensions.
I told you Obama was free-market capitalist. Now he’ll finally get some credit from the far-right.
Spin baaby spin!
There’s a difference between interfering and having talks. You don’t just give someone billions of dollars without talking to them about what they are going to do with it and monitoring what they actually do with it.
BTW, GM has been cutting non-union pensions, pay and benefits for decades.
Decades.
“These messages reveal that Treasury officials were involved in decision-making that led to more than 20,000 non-union workers losing their pensions.”
The moneys to make AIG executives whole had to come from SOMEWHERE, didn’t they?
Country star Glen Campbell says he has Alzheimer’s
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110622/en_nm/us_campbell
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – “Rhinestone Cowboy” singer Glen Campbell says he is in the early stages of Alzheimer’s disease, and has recorded one last album as a farewell to his fans.
Campbell, 75, had been suffering from short-term memory loss for years, but the terminal Alzheimer’s diagnosis only came six months ago, according to an interview published in People magazine on Wednesday.
“I still love making music,” he was quoted as saying. “And I still love performing for my fans. I’d like to thank them for sticking with me through thick and thin.”
That’s sad. I was never much of a country music fan, but Glen Campbell definitely made his mark on the genre, and I can still recall the hits from his heyday, even though I personally never much cared for them as a kid.
The United States and other nations that depend on oil imports will release and sell 60 million barrels of crude from emergency stocks in an effort to ease the strain of high oil prices on the global economy.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110623/ap_on_re_us/us_oil_economy
Reminds me of good ol’ Poor Richard:
Buy what thou hast no Need of and ere long thou shalt sell thy Necessaries.
“Buy what thou hast no Need of and ere long thou shalt sell thy Necessaries.”
Did they already have garage sales and pawn shops back in Ben Franklin’s day?