Bits Bucket for July 1, 2011
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Happy Fourth of July weekend, all!
I am in a happy lull at work (not the structural slowdown kind), so have nothing due next week, hence no requirement to work this weekend.
I have resolved to get off my duff, and make the Great Oil City Road Trip. What can I say? I’m fond of the oil bidness, I’m fond of old towns that were built around an erstwhile core of wealth, and I like rural PA. In contrast to upstate NY, another beautiful area, the tax structure is not an 800 lb gorilla. The one time I made a detour to give Oil City the 10 minute overview on the way to a dog show, I got good visual and checkbook vibes. Since rivers are, for me, the equivalent of destination resorts, and since I’m footloose and fancy free, I figger I’ll go up for a nice hike and a longer look.
I’ve got to chuckle and shake my head. The wanderlust of the perennial bookworm. Goes against all energy conservation teachings, making a trip like that. But I’m charmed by the concept of the Oil City Plan, and I will have a wonderful time poking around the Allegheny River if for no other reason. Maybe I can find where the original oil wells were.
Reports next week.
We have a place here in CA called Oildale you might want to check out.
Or, better yet, let your fingers do the walking; Get on the net and give Oildale a hard look.
If Oil City is anything like Oildale then you might want to rethink your fantasies.
“If Oil City is anything like Oildale then you might want to rethink your fantasies.”
You can throw in Lost Hills and Taft while you are on a visit to Oildale.
Kind of a desolate area! And not as many rivers as PA. The drive over to Ojai is a blast, however.
My oldest daughter moved to Huntington Beach last year, rented an apartment sight unseen, and lo and behold it turned out to be directly next to a producing oil well, with the attendent noise and smell. Oh well, the apartment was only $2500/month.
Even more interesting to me are the Condo’s that overlook the La Brea tar pits. Either you get used to the petroleum smell or never open the windows I guess. But hey, they probably only cost a million or so.
OMFG!
I’m going to move my family to Oil City and commute to FL.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/608-W-2nd-St_Oil-City_PA_16301_M49866-57824
Bye, FL! (yuk-yuk, get it??? )
Oh jane, are you going to the actual Oil City?
Wow, a full report would be nice.
(just a quick caveat: when we say “Oil City Plan,” — that is, save up, buy a cheap house cash, homestead for veggies, work a McJob for walking money, and generally live a low-level life — it doesn’t have to be the actual Oil City, PA. We use Oil City as an HBB inside joke. It could any one of hundreds of towns in the US. For example: Plain City, OH, or Laton, CA, or touristy Watkins Glen, NY, or Nashville, IN, or Bell City, MO…)
Hey, did that kid from Miami ever make it to Oil City, PA?
I think he did, but he appears to have lost his internet connection.
I’m still convinced that ByeFl was a she, or very gay. She often mentioned her beanie baby collection.
Losing internet is a hazard on the Plan. Probably not much access in the sticks, no money for internet anyway, libraries too far away to visit regularly.
“Probably not much access in the sticks, no money for internet anyway, libraries too far away to visit regularly.”
Hey there.
“Hey there.”
Lots of marinas have wifi these days, right Blue?
ByeFl’s entire plan was based on having access to the internet. Wasn’t his/her entire plan based on being able to continue some sort of internet based business? The justification for going to Oil City was that any cheap place with internet access would do?
Most McDonalds have free Wi-fi.
He /she can hang their shingle over by the big round corner booth.
ByeFl’s entire plan was based on being able to function as an adult.
Wasn’t his whole plan on fishing those toys that kids play in the mall — the thing with the three spindles that never seem to connect — and then sell it online?
That’s what I vaguely recall anyway.
Yeah, but there are small towns, and there are small towns. A lot of people say you want a small enough town that you can cross paths with most of its citizens over the course of a year of downscale living, that’s small enough so that the drug dealers don’t bother, and that’s remote enough and poor enough to make it both inaccessible and unattractive to illegal aliens.
That argues for 1000- 5000 people. In a low median income area, my going in hypothesis is that the people who are left have either all sunk onto the dole, have learned resilience and how to fix things themselves, or have acquired a balance between the those extremes. I’m thinking you can find just about any kind of fixer you want with 1000 people. A small enough community to pull together, and to work the grapevine wrt “who do you know that does xyz?”
Rumor has it that one of the fabled old buildings (? Theater ?) has been turned into working artists’ studios. CHEAP working artists’ studios. A place that has a critical mass of working artists is a place where you can likely live frugally AND have a good conversation.
Oil City is part of a valley transportation ecosystem that stretches northwest to Lake Erie, to Corry, where the petroleum products were formerly barged, tankered or railed (?? terminology) East or West to refineries in Ohio or …I actually don’t know the closest eastern refinery. In this NW transport corridor, the crime increases precipitously from nil in Oil City, to higher than average PROPERTY crime in Titusville (first oil strike in the east), to much higher than average VIOLENT crime in Corry, the transportation hub on Lake Erie. Sort of shows how criminals don’t like to go outside of their comfort zones, where they will be picked out, and how they DO like the ability to make ez getaways.
Again, that place has the advantage of visual beauty, what with its proximity to the state gamelands, state parks, state forests, and two nice sized rivers. Unlike Oildale, it has the advantage that it was born into a wealthy infrastructure, which had ripple effects for generations. After Pennzoil left, the infrastructure stayed, and the median income gradually declined, along with the population of movers and shakers who thrived on the oil money.
Cr*pshacks are not worth building for a declining population in an uncommutable location. Although I read that the place had a runup in prices which - like everywhere else - came back to bite in the face of declining jobz. The people who lost one of the two household jobz, who were subsequently foreclosed on, left.
I hypothesize that rural towns tend to be suspicious of, and hostile to, carpetbaggers. Given PA’s sensible gun laws, I doubt overt shysters would have wanted to stick around after the first local citizen was stiffed and word got around: cf the advantage of living in a small enough community that everybody knows who is one of “us”, and takes it real personal-like when one of their own is stiffed. The trick is to find a small town that hasn’t already become rancid with control fraud perpetrated by ingrown connections that have been there forever.
The water and air quality stats also get better the further SE you get from Corry, down that valley corridor to Oil City.
All this speculatin’ is a product of my bookwormy nature. I have my hypotheses in hand, and am looking forward to going out to get data points.
Keep writing, jane. I enjoy it.
Oxy, how the heck do you find out where all the kewl little towns are? Is there a secret site I don’t know about? Serious question.
A couple of the ones I listed, I have visited. The others I just picked out on a map. Yeah, real scientific!!!
I’d rather choose a town that’s 30-40 miles from a major city, or 15-20 miles from a medium city. There are hospitals within driving distance, you’re likely to have a least a few commuters, Internet access, electricity and propane service, and at least one large store like a Wal-mart or a Tractor Supply. But you’d still be in the sticks.
See Titusville. Drake well. It’s a nice drive to Oil City. Don’t blink.
Spread Tax Burden To The Poor: Tax Foundation
MSNBC - 30 Jun 2011
The U.S. tax code is “absolutely broken” and the only way to fix it is to spread the burden to lower-and middle-income earners, Scott Hodge, president of the Tax Foundation, told CNBC Thursday.
“The United States leans more heavily on the top 10 percent of earners than any other country on Earth and our poor people actually have the lowest income tax burden of any industrialized country,” he said.
According to Internal Revenue Service data, the top 25 percent of earners paid 86.3 percent of federal income taxes while the bottom 50 percent paid 2.7 percent of taxes. Those in the middle paid 11 percent of taxes.
“We need to broaden the tax base,” Hodge said. “I hate to say this because no one’s going to like this in Washington but we need to bring many of those people who no longer pay any income tax back on the tax rolls.”
He said compromise on both sides is needed for an overhaul after years of policies to help the middle class “actually knocked millions of people off the tax rolls,” he said. He noted that according to Congress’ Joint Committee on Taxation, nearly 51 percent of all American households pay no income taxes.
So, get rid of the Social Security tax and roll it into the income tax. POOOF!!!! Problem solved.
The reason the poor pay so little INCOME TAX is because of the way Social Security is a flat tax on the poor, then repaid via earned income credit.
Or, even better…. instead of all our attention being focused on how to crush the wage bargining power of the American Blue Collar worker, how about we start working to raise the wages of the lower income so they can afford to pay taxes without crushing their to spend on other things?
I am so sick of people using half-truths to advance a political agenda!
You also have to take into account that wealth concentration is higher in the US than other industrialized nations. I’d want to see the numbers based on percentage of wealth/income the top holds, not how many of them there are.
Also, the poor in other industrialized nations may pay more than they do in the US, but they get a lot more for it as well - namely health care.
That all being in addition to your point about the payroll tax for SS and Medicare being considered something other than an income tax in the US.
“they get a lot more for it as well”
And in some countries they also get higher education without crushing debt.
Isn’t funny how things like Healthcare and Higher Ed in the US are expected to be prohibitively expensive?
Yes the top 1% control 70% of the stock market wealth.
The upper 1 percent of Americans are now taking in nearly a quarter of the nation’s income every year. In terms of wealth rather than income, the top 1 percent control 40 percent. (I believe in terms of stock market wealth it’s 70%) Their lot in life has improved considerably. Twenty-five years ago, the corresponding figures were 12 percent and 33 percent. One response might be to celebrate the ingenuity and drive that brought good fortune to these people, and to contend that a rising tide lifts all boats. That response would be misguided. While the top 1 percent have seen their incomes rise 18 percent over the past decade, those in the middle have actually seen their incomes fall. For men with only high-school degrees, the decline has been precipitous—12 percent in the last quarter-century alone. All the growth in recent decades—and more—has gone to those at the top. In terms of income equality, America lags behind any country in the old, ossified Europe that President George W. Bush used to deride. Among our closest counterparts are Russia with its oligarchs and Iran. Whoo Hoo!
“So, get rid of the Social Security tax and roll it into the income tax. POOOF!!!! Problem solved.”
BS. Problem will never be solved unless you stop government waste of any money collected. Any new collection of taxes right now will only be redistributed to some wasteful feel good program while hoping that given a month or a year down the road this country will have a “Hallelujah” moment.
Government waste is really a minor issue at this point. The problem is lack of jobbage/wages.
Which is a problem of trade imbalance.
Sal didn’t mean it would solve the funding problem. It would, however, solve the misleading statistics problem. If you stop separating out the payroll tax, we wouldn’t have to deal with the misleading rhetoric about poor people not paying any taxes.
That being said, my friends who make less than $20K a year (family of three) get an earned income tax credit large enough to completely offset their payroll taxes and leave them with a small payment above their amount of income tax withheld.
Anyone who thinks that someone who’s making 20-30K a year because they aren’t “paying taxes”, has a cordial invitation from me to trade spots with them.
Once again, I feel compelled to remind everyone that the poor/freeloaders who don’t “pay income taxes” are still paying these taxes:
-Social Security
-Sales Taxes (Approaching 9% in many areas)
-Local income taxes (people employed in KCMO pay 1% year, whether they live in KC, Mo. or not. Even Kansas residents)
-Property taxes
-Insurance on motor vehicles (a expenditure mandated by government…….looks like a tax to me)
-Fuel taxes
-Taxes on utilities
I’m sure I’ve forgotten a few.
-Local income taxes (people employed in KCMO pay 1% year, whether they live in KC, Mo. or not. Even Kansas residents)
I would imagine the local municipalities have standard deductions/a progressive rate just like federal taxes. So it’s possible they don’t pay state/municipality taxes, or if they do, it’s a very small amount.
I’ve spent my adult life in states that don’t have income taxes, though, so I’m not sure how it works (though I did grow in a state that had them, and paid them from ages 14-21).
This idea of paying no taxes is a crock. I even had to pay taxes on my unemployment checks. I elected to have taxes witheld, and reported them on my tax return.
Tax loopholes are for big lawyers. Actual taxes are for little people.
http://www.taxfoundation.org/staff/show/5.html
——–
During the 1990s, [Scott Hodge] led the campaign to include the $500 per-child credit and capital gains tax cuts in the Contract with America. These tax cuts were the eventual centerpieces of the 1997 tax bill and the Bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003.
He has been the creative force behind the Tax Foundation’s Putting a Face on America’s Tax Returns project [and did a lot of pundit stuff yada yada] …
Before joining the Tax Foundation, Scott was Director of Tax and Budget Policy at Citizens for a Sound Economy. He also spent ten years at The Heritage Foundation, including eight years as Heritage’s Grover Hermann Fellow in Federal Budgetary Affairs. Scott began his career in Chicago where he helped found the Heartland Institute in 1984. He holds a degree in political science from the University of Illinois at Chicago.
————-
In other words, straight up Wingut Welfare. And check it out: $500 tax cut for the poor, and millions in tax cuts for the rich!! I bet he still thinks that he fooled us into thinking that he cares about the poor.
The man reeks of poison.
Interesting. His educational background is in poly sci, yet he presents himself as some sort of economist. Whose payroll is he on, anyway?
The Tax Foundation is a DOT org, so they take donations.
Don’t let their long history and past testimonials of “nonpartisanship”
fool you. They were founded in 1937 (hmmm) by the robber barrons (GM, Standard Oil), and their recent Board of Directors reads like a Most Wanted list of corporate greed (from wiki):
————-
Current Directors:
David P. Lewis, Eli Lilly & Co,
James Lintott, Sterling Foundation Management
Bill Archer, former Texas Congressman
Past Directors:
Wayne E. Gable: Koch Industries Dir. of Federal Affairs, Citizens for a Sound Economy, Americans for Prosperity
James C. Miller III: Citizens for a Sound Economy; Director of OMB under Pres. Regan
Joseph O. Luby, Jr.: Exxon Mobil, VP Tax
James Q. Riordan: Mobil, VP Tax
R. Glenn Hubbard: Chairman of President Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers
Michael P. Boyle: Microsoft, VP Finance
Other Current Directors:
Douglas Holtz-Eakin: American Action Forum; chief economic adviser to Presidential candidate John McCain in 2008
Pamela F. Olson: senior economic adviser to the Bush-Cheney campaign and formerly Assistant Secretary of Treasury for Tax Policy under Pres. Bush
———-
As I said, WINGNUT WELFARE…
“Past Directors:
Wayne E. Gable: Koch Industries Dir. of Federal Affairs”
Well surprise,surprise!
Wingnut Welfare….. I like. Added to the lexicon.
Thank you Oxy.
That is just a disgrace — to focus on one tax and conveniently ignore the payroll tax. How about broadening that one to the rich and the retired.
Basically, when I read something like that, I never pay any attention to whoever said it ever again.
“How about broadening that one to the rich and the retired.”
+10. Charge SS tax on the income over $106K and it becomes solvent. DONE.
How can you pay income tax if you don’t have income, you moron??? As for bringing people back onto the tax rolls, I heartily agree. Let’s start with “people” like GE.
Big V, I’ve never heard of U of Illinois AT Chicago. It’s not the same as the U OF Chicago. It sounds like an outpost campus of U of I state school. And Politics is a drinking major. I know — I went to college with lots of politics majors.
What stuns me is that this guy didn’t use the usual bumper sticker gems like “spending problem” “job creators” “system is broken” “supply-side” “economic growth” and other dog-whistle phrases meant to confuse the sheeple. He says straight out “we need to bring people onto the tax rolls.” Why is he letting the Republican cat out of the bag for the sheeple to see?
“Charge SS tax on the income over $106K and it becomes solvent. DONE”
Actually, no.
Even if it doesn’t make SS solvent, cutting off SS tax at $106k is just bizarre. In my opinion, there should be no cap.
If there has to be a cap, then it’s the 6% employer side at $200k, and the employee pays their 6% all the way to the moon.
We are already in absurd territory, as the system was supposed to be a user paid retirement “insurance” program. Having those least needing such paying the highest premium is bass ackwards. It is time to eliminate it and just have an income tax. Also, if it’s “insurance” then you should only get a payout if you are broke. It wouldn’t be less painful, just less farcical.
Social security is a SOCIAL program. It was never intended to be paid for by its recipients. Everyone was supposed to contribute so that POOR old people won’t be forced on the street. Then they reduced our wages to the point that we can’t imagine ever saving enough to fund our own retirements, and it suddenly became an entitlement program. Let the corporate elite foot the bill, since they are the ones who champion the causes that make social security necessary for the masses.
“Actually, no.”
Actually, yes:
Removing the Social Security earnings cap virtually eliminates funding gap
Josh Bivens
February 17, 2005
Economic Policy Institute
Removing the Social Security earnings cap virtually eliminates funding gap
Using relatively pessimistic assumptions about future growth in productivity and immigration, the Social Security Administration (SSA) actuaries estimate that Social Security trust fund revenues will fall somewhat short of covering scheduled benefits over the next 75 years. Until recently, President Bush had signaled opposition to any revenue increase to close that shortfall. On February 16, however, President Bush indicated his willingness to consider raising the cap on income subject to the Social Security tax. SSA actuarial estimates show that eliminating the cap would virtually eliminate the projected 75-year funding shortfall.
This shortfall is less severe than is often presented by proponents of Social Security privatization. SSA’s projections show that a 1.9 percentage-point increase in the existing payroll tax dedicated to Social Security would close the projected funding gap over a 75-year period. Using slightly less pessimistic economic assumptions about the next 75 years, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated the gap could be closed over the next 75 years with just a 1.0 percentage-point increase.
No! Impossible! Social Security is doomed! Completely Unaffordable! Forget you ever saw this, and return to your kochtopus information sites at once! This is an Order, sheeple! And no, you can’t ever retire. Why? Because we enjoy our wealth more knowing everyone else is miserable.
OK Alpha, I like your numbers. I stopped at a red light on the All Income thingy, as all income is not subject to SS.
Actually YES. And in fact, SS runs a surplus every year and has since it’s inception.
There. Taken right off the table.
UIC is part of the University of Illinois system. It’s a big urban campus where their professional schools (med, law, science graduate programs) are based.
When will Congress start writing better trade policies, making it once again possible for Americans to be middle class so they can pay taxes? In the meanwhile, that top 10% (1%?) is getting such a huge piece of the pie, I think they NEED to pay the higher taxes.
According to Internal Revenue Service data, the top 25 percent of earners paid 86.3 percent of federal income taxes while the bottom 50 percent paid 2.7 percent of taxes. Those in the middle paid 11 percent of taxes.
OK dimwit from the tax foundation.
1. Let’s look at total tax burden state and sales tax included.
2. Then let’s look at effective tax rate. What percentage of each dollar earned is taken by federal state and local gov.
3. Let’s look at how the inflation tax hits the poor vs the elite.
Why isn’t he railing against the top 400 who pay effective tax rates of 15%????????????????????
Wow. Just. wow.
Scott Hodge is a lying SOB.
The U.S. tax code is “absolutely broken” and the only way to fix it is to spread the burden to lower-and middle-income earners, Scott Hodge, president of the Tax Foundation, told CNBC Thursday.
Ya gotta hand it to the 1%ers. They’re ballsy! I suppose its only a question of time before we hear people like Mr. Hodge advocate for the return of debtor’s prison and indentured servitude.
The urgency to ramp an exit plan (from the USA) just went up a notch or two.
Oh, c’mon! It’ll be fun to be ruled by an elite that apparently won’t be sated until there are bread lines and serfs again.
Goldman Sachs’s Central Bank Connections Reach Ever Deeper
bloomberg July 1, 2011
The revolving door between Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and central banks is spinning again.
The fifth-biggest U.S. bank by assets said yesterday it hired Bank of England economist Andrew Benito after recruiting Huw Pill from the European Central Bank in May and Naohiko Baba from the Bank of Japan in January. Moving in the other direction, Ben Broadbent, Goldman Sachs’s ex-chief U.K. economist, started at the Bank of England last month. Former vice chairman Mario Draghi will take up the presidency of the ECB in November.
The targeting of central banks reflects the value banks such as New York-based Goldman Sachs place on the skills economists gather working in policy-making at a time when growth in advanced economies is struggling to gain momentum. Meantime, governments seeking top officials are again turning to Goldman Sachs for top decision-makers 12 months after it settled U.S. fraud claims and almost four years since the start of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
“The people they’re hiring from central banks tend to have valuable understandings of monetary policies, currencies, what’s going on with regulation and have access to all sorts of important people,” said Roy Smith, a finance professor at New York University and former Goldman Sachs partner. “Goldman Sachs has taken a bashing in the crisis. It’s bound to be near the bottom or recovering now, as there’s nothing of substance to follow the charges. Governments recognize that to be the case.”
Lemme translate that:
valuable understandings <— knows how to cheat
of monetary policies, <— knows whom to bribe
currencies <— bundles secret Citizen United campaign contributions from the Saudis and the Chinese
what’s going on with regulation <— lead supplier of p*rn to SEC
and have access to all sorts of important people <— shares golf pro.
I hate what this country has become…
“access to all sorts of important people”
That is called corruption, dear.
Actually, no.
I do suspect though that if you were Sec of Treasury, you’d suddenly have access to anybody you needed to.
They are talking about a private company who hires people for the purpose of “having access” to public servants.
oh.
Minnesota government shutdown begins after talks fail
MINNEAPOLIS (Reuters) - Minnesota’s state government began a broad shut down on Friday going into the July 4 holiday after Democratic Governor Mark Dayton and Republican legislative leaders failed to reach a budget deal.
Parts of the government had already begun to shut down on Thursday ahead of the midnight budget deadline, including some websites and dozens of highway rest stops on one of the biggest travel days of the year.
The budget impasse means that some 23,000 of the roughly 36,000 Minnesota state employees will be furloughed and state parks and campgrounds closed ahead of what is usually their busiest stretch of the year for the July 4 holiday.
Dayton and Democratic legislative leaders Senator Tom Bakk and Representative Paul Thissen met for more than a week with Republican leaders including House Speaker Kurt Zellers and Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch. The leaders met several times on Thursday in the governor’s office.
Neither Dayton nor the Republican leaders gave any indication when they would meet next to discuss the budget.
“I deeply regret that the last week of intense negotiations between the Republican legislative leaders and Senator Bakk, Representative Thissen and myself have failed to bridge the divide between us,” Dayton said in a speech.
He said his last proposed two-year general fund budget was $35.7 billion, but the differences between his approach and the Republican leaders had not changed since January. The gap between the two sides stood at $1.4 billion, he said.
This article is on CNN and has some fun comments. Sample:
“And the wealthy have plenty of entitlements. Let’s see them go to Libya or Syria and see how well they do without the protection of the US. Each American soldier put 100% of their lives on the line to protect all of us including the environment the wealthy succeed in. Yet the wealthy won’t put 3% of their profits on the line. The soldiers would gladly put only 3% of their life on the line.”
“Over 80% of the Hedge fund managers Obama recently vilified are registered democrats and voted for Obama. It’s the Dems that have been concentrating wealth int he hands of a few. Under Obama thousands of small community banks have gone under in favor of his buddies at Government Sachs/Wall St.. The banks are even more too big to fail now. Wall street are predominantly democrats, it’s New York for God sake! They are all liberals. You people are stupid and blind.show more “
Why do so many Republicans not know that TARP was a Republican bill?
“Remember….it’s not a lie if YOU believe it!”
-George Costanza
LOL. You just leave that bag of money on your desk when you go Geroge. I’ve got big plans for it. Er, I’ve been told what’s expected of me.
It’s easy to forget if you just try.
Geithner Exit Would Force Obama to Rebuild
Jul 1, 2011 (BLOOMBERG)
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner’s potential departure from the administration would force President Barack Obama to assemble a new economic team as he enters a re-election campaign that’s likely to be dominated by voter concern over jobs.
Geithner has signaled to White House officials that he’s considering leaving the administration after Obama reaches an agreement with Congress to raise the national debt limit, according to three people familiar with the matter.
The Treasury secretary said yesterday that speculation about his departure was being driven by his decision to commute to New York so his son can finish his final year of high school there. He stated his intention to stay, without saying how long.
“I live for this work,” he said at the Clinton Global Initiative in Chicago. “It’s the only thing I’ve ever done. I believe in it. We have a lot of challenges as a country. I’m going to be doing it for the foreseeable future.”
Geithner, 49, won’t make a final decision on whether to leave until the debt-ceiling issue has been resolved, according to one of the people. All spoke on condition of anonymity to talk about private discussions.
An exit by Geithner would complete the turnover in Obama’s original economic team, with Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Austan Goolsbee scheduled to leave in early August to return to the University of Chicago. It would leave Obama with two key posts to fill as the recovery slows. The unemployment rate rose to 9.1 percent in May, and the economy grew at a 1.9 percent pace in the first quarter, the government reported.
“I’m going to be doing it for the foreseeable future.”
If the foreseeable future means until something “unexpected” happens, under Obamanomics that could be, say. lunchtime today.
“I live for this work,”
Sure ya do, you contemptible, bloodless prick.
For two cents I’d make sure he enjoyed his retirement in China. AFTER we default on the debt.
You do realize that’s where it sits, right? If the US defaults on the debt, China’s long knives will be out for TTT.
kung pao geithner
People don’t “leave” these positions. They are given an out.
Rats don’t leave a ship until it starts to sink.
An exit by Geithner would complete the turnover in Obama’s original economic team, with Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Austan Goolsbee scheduled to leave in early August to return to the University of Chicago. It would leave Obama with two key posts to fill as the recovery slows. The unemployment rate rose to 9.1 percent in May, and the economy grew at a 1.9 percent pace in the first quarter, the government reported.
Notable Obama Team Econ departures:
1. Jared Bernstein, who’s now blogging away (and doing other think-tanky stuff) at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
2. Peter Orszag, who frequently clashed with Larry Summers.
3. Christina Romer, who frequently clashed with Larry Summers. (Do you detect a trend here?)
4. Larry Summers, whose “difficult to work with” reputation was in full display during his White House tenure.
5. Paul Volcker, who felt like he was being blown off. So he bailed.
“An exit by Geithner…”
How about a non-Goldman gentile appointment?
I can’t believe how bad the Phoenix housing market has gotten.
Back in 2005-2008 I was one of the most vocal critics of the housing bubble. I knew the bubble would pop. People called me all sorts of names… doom and gloom, end-of-the-world, perma-bear… Bascially calling me the crazy homeless guy standing on a soap box screaming the end is near.
And what was my “insane prediction”? 40+% drop in Phoenix area home values. Maybe as bad as 50% drop due to overcorrection.
My house was worth $140K in 2003 and insanly skyrocketed to $270+K at the peak. The house literally across the street set the high water mark for the neighborhood at $270K but was slightly smaller than mine and did not have the pool I have. I fully expected prices to fall back to 2003 levels or perhaps a little lower.
That house across the street has been sitting empty for over a year. Just put back on the market by the bank for $77K. Okay, clearly a low-ball looking to create a bidding frenzy.
Wait…. Others in the neighborhood have actually sold for $90K? Yikes!
The townhouses at the end of the street that sold for $150K at the peak and had bottomed at $30K a year ago are now listed as low as $22K and have been selling in the $25K range?
What prompted me to look this up is that the house next-door just went empty. Never saw a for sale sign, so I looked it up on Maricopa County Recorder. Foreclosure? What? They were a 50-something, level headed, blue collar couple. She’s a lunch lady at the kid’s school and he a truck driver. Older cars, no fancy vacations or obvious overspending. Did they cash out re-fi? Nope. Total owed was $100K. ARM? Nope. Fixed. Refi in 2006 to get low rates. Thier payment had to be under $900 a month. Houses on this street were renting for $1300 a month a few years ago.
But these are not isolated. Within 1/4 mile of my house, there are at least 8 other foreclosures similar to mine listed for sale for quite a bit under $100K… $62K-$89K.
Basically, things are much, much worse than I expected, and a few years back I was one of the most gloomy people you could find on the future of the housing market.
You are lucky to live in an area that has corrected. Many of us havent seen much movement at all, and refuse to pay 500k or more for a poorly built synthetic stucco box. We havent seen a modest well-built home on a decent lot in a decent area for less than $300k for years.
I remember being afraid to write 40 to 50 pct price drops. I also remember when people thought we were kooks for arguing prices would drop at all. I’m humbled by the financial carnage, however.
Yes, humbled.
50% was always my “informal” target for S. FL. The median income in our area is about 45K, and the median home price (at the peak) was about 425K. Just to get back to “normal” we had to get to about 200K median home price. And we’re pretty much there now; although, of course, there are still pockets of overpriced (as normal)..
Now, north of me (Port St. Lucie, for example).. That’s an absolute bloodbath. You can pick up a nice 10 year old 2000 sq/ft home up there for under 100K (and they were selling for 300K+ at the peak). The prices up there are so low that I almost think it has to be an overcorrection. It’s not a ghetto, and, if your a snowbird from up north, that kind of price starts to sound really attractive. Even if you’re only here 4-5 months, the math on that starts to pencil out (vs renting a vacation home for the same amount of time). And if you’re looking to move here?? Sell you crap shack in DC/NJ/etc for a few 100K, buy the house for cash at 100K. You’re living expenses would be almost nothing.
And that’s what made FL work 20 years ago for retirees. And will probably make it work again over the next 10 years.
This does NOT mean I expect prices to go up. Just that I don’t expect them to go down more than another 10-20% in most S. FL areas.
In my last job I traveled to PSL frequently starting in ‘96 through about ‘05. It was incredible to watch. In ‘96 PSL was a pretty sleepy burg, in the summer and a winter home for the less affluent trailer park snow birds. Huge trailer parks completely empty all summer, and bustling with activity in the five winter months.
Over the next 10 years, the construction boom was incredible, with lots of people commuting to Palm Beach. House prices were pretty reasonable until about ‘04 and then just went straight up, especially for stuff on the canals. I haven’t been back since the bust, but I’ve heard stories of block upon block of empty places and condo developments less than 1/3 occupied.
ISTR predicting 20% drops, but that 40% was more likely than 10%, so I don’t feel too stupid.
Well, if the market can overshoot in one direction is can overshoot in the other, it seems.
I hope for your sake that the neighborhood remains stable and you are able to stay in your home. Perhaps some young folks will move in at those low prices.
As for the 50 something couple, I had said that those that age can’t expect to leave younger generations worse off and still sell their houses to them at high prices. And buying for low prices was the only way younger people could get back what they will have lost due to lower wages, diminished public services, and higher taxes for debts and benefits they’ll never see.
So if $140K was a “normal” price and some young couple ends up buying for $60K, they’ve at least taken back $80K. And perhaps they can afford the $12K downpayment and the mortgage given the $20K per year income (in real dollars) they’ll have.
And buying for low prices was the only way younger people could get back what they will have lost due to lower wages, diminished public services, and higher taxes for debts and benefits they’ll never see.’
yea thats right and a interesting way to look at the whole picture
I’m 50 and right at the end of the Boomer and silent generations handy work.
Unemployment. It’s very sad.
Yes. A local economy built on building houses for people who build houses is sad too.
And that’s exactly what the Arizona economy has been based on for, oh, about 30 years. Building houses for people who are coming here to sell houses.
Phoenix way down my old rental is valued on Zillow at about 160K and homes have sold on the street for less than 100K
Tano st. in Ahwathukee 85044
I liked Phoenix but its really hot….
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=33.32700729&lon=-111.99822998&zoom=8&pin=Phoenix%2c%20AZ
It isn’t THAT hot. They are only predicting 117 for tomorrow. A cold front moves through and we may be as low as 109 by Monday.
haha spoken like a true Phoenician
I’m spoiled weatherwise. Here in Ventura Co. CA the weather is perfect hot sun mixed with a cold Ocean
Not as crowded as San Diego, Orange Co or LA But there are jobs unlike Santa Barbra Co or San Luis Opisbo.
cactus
You’re spoiled. Moorpark has an ideal climate. I think in the 14 yrs we lived in Mountain Meadows, we used our AC one week a year. Moorpark has such a great micro-climate. Thousand Oaks is a close second, and Simi Valley (home to the Reagan Library) is hot. It’s almost San Fernando Valley hot, imo.
This past Monday, it was 112 in Tucson. It’s supposed to get up to 109 today.
I remember Tucson as being cooler than Phoenix in the early morning hours. Probably because its higher up in elevation.
I could live in Tucson and not complain much about the weather, Phoenix? No I complained starting around now and didn’t shut up until OCT. except when it rained, then it was pretty nice. Lots of rain in August with big storms.
So 3 bad months it’s not that bad. The rest of the time it’s fine. I should move back acually!
Buying here in Cali at 500K? I don’t know it seems like finacial suicide when next door its 1/3 the price.
cactus
We saw 3707 Stant*n in Simi, a short sale not disclosed in the MLS. Asking $399.9K is absurd. The place had new windows, granted, but it was a major fixer. The pool and spa were pretty, but they too needed work. That place was a $80K money pit. My husband wished the new buyers luck (REIC trying to get a bidding war going) and a bag of $. They’re going to need it. Worth $300K tops.
Darrel
I live only a few miles from you at 80th ave and Cactus. The homes in my neighborhood have come down alot also. The house accross the street sold for 180K in 2007 and sold as a short sale for 69K last year. The house was bought by a Canadian couple who spent 3 weeks cleaning it up.
My house would have sold for 260K at the peak and I would have a had time selling is for 120K now. The only reason I would get that much is all the upgrades I have doen which includes a new 5K HVAC unit.
One of the girls that I play golf with bought her house in 1997 for 220K. She put a new 50K kitchen in it a couple of years ago. She has made other updates but nothing real major. She wants 375K for a 2,400 sq ft house built in the 70’s. Totally out of touch. The house has been on the market for almost a year with no offers.
C’mon, Golfer, tell the story about the home equity extraction and the stay-at-home mom! That’s a good one too.
Context for the above: Last week, AZGolfer and I met at a Downtown Tucson watering hole. During our conversation, she told me about the extraction summarized above. It’s a good story.
The story I told Slim over a glass of wine (me) and a bowl of icecream (slim) was about one of the girls that plays golf at my home course.
She and her husband bought in 1995 for 220K. So that she could stay home and volunteer at the local hospital and play golf during the week they have been taking money out of the equity.
When I looked up the records there were so many entries of equity extraction that it was difficult to figure out how much they took out. Looks like 200K plus. They did do a 25K master bath remodel, but most of the money was so “wifey” didn’t have to get a job. (kids are long gone and grown)
The twist came when her husband got laid off last year. She is still playing golf but, I can’t imagine how they are making payments on a 400K mortgage. House is now worth about 200K tops.
Hey, AZGolfer! WASSSSUUUUUUUUUUP?
Pimco’s Simon: There Was Never a Housing Recovery.
June 30, 2011, 2:03 PM ET.
By Dawn Wotapka
Bearish outlooks on housing aren’t hard to find these days, but one stands out even for this market.
Scott Simon, a managing director and head of global asset-giant Pimco’s mortgage- and asset-backed securities teams, is credited with foreseeing the housing crash and helping his firm dodge losses that plagued Wall Street.
Q: Could you begin by framing the current state of the housing market? Do you see a double dip market?
A: We are seeing signs of what we have long suspected: There never was a housing recovery. In fact, I argue the market is in a fragile state that is far easier to break than to fix. If policy makers alter the government’s current approach to housing and unwittingly break the market, they may not be able to repair the damage within the foreseeable future. … We anticipate an average decline from here of about 6% to 8% in prices across the country.
Q: Are more foreclosures expected to hit the market?
A: We see potential for a substantial number of foreclosures over the next three years – as many as 6 million to 7 million additional foreclosures, on top of the roughly 2 million we estimate have already occurred. Foreclosures may peak in about two years, but the numbers could still be high for a few years after that and then likely taper off.
Q: Let’s switch gears to discuss housing finance. Is the home-loan market still reliant on government support?
A: Yes, government is essentially considered the mortgage market today, but this needs to be put in context
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/06/30/pimcos-simon-there-was-never-a-housing-recovery/ - -
In what year did Scott Simon start talking about the “crisis”? Was it 2008?
BofA Accord May Lead to Mortgage-Principal Writedowns, Bill Clinton Says
By Hugh Son -
Jun 30, 2011 6:48 PM ET
Former President Bill Clinton said Bank of America Corp. (BAC)’s accord with mortgage-bond investors may give more “underwater” borrowers a chance to cut the amount owed on their home loans.
“You’d relieve the anxiety of countless Americans who would know they could hold onto their homes,” Clinton, 64, said in an interview yesterday with Bloomberg Television’s Al Hunt.
Brian T. Moynihan, 51, CEO of Bank of America, said in April that “we do not see broad-based principal reduction as a sound policy decision” for the country.
“It’s hard to see how we could justify reducing principal for many delinquent customers who represent a small portion of borrowers, but not for the vast majority of our customers who have stayed current on their loans,” he said in the prepared text of a speech.
There is “enormous potential” to reduce the drag of U.S. housing on the economy if aspects of the Bank of America settlement are applied to the entire industry, Clinton said. The government could give an incentive to have that happen, he said.
“There is growing talk in Washington about solving the mortgage crisis by starting a more aggressive program than has ever been done before by writing down loan balances, starting with troubled banks,” said David Lykken, president of Mortgage Banking Solutions, an Austin, Texas-based consulting firm.
By unclogging the housing market, “you lift not only an economic, but a psychological burden off of the homeowners and the banks,” Clinton said. “And we’re free to start lending again, we’re free to engage in normal economic activity.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-30/bill-clinton-says-bofa-accord-may-lead-to-principal-writedowns.html - 88k -
“BofA Accord May Lead to Mortgage-Principal Writedowns.”
LOL. Is it just me or is this just another headline designed to keep the spirits of the FBs up, to keep their hopes alive?
Why trouble yourself to do the deed when words will do just as well? Especially when words are a lot cheaper.
Hmmmm …
So certain government-involved people are crowing about future principal write-downs, but the actual bank is saying basically “no”. I wonder which one is correct?
I think the Wiki leak on BOA may have been found.
Y’know what? I’m going to go out on a limb and suggestion that there be a massive principal writedown of mortgages written during the bubble years.
Yes, I know. Moral hazard and all that.
In my little neck of the woods, I’m seeing a lot of overpaid-for properties that are just sitting there empty now. If these property mortgages were crammed down to what they’re really worth now, maybe a few of my neighbors would have stayed around. I don’t know.
But the proliferation of empty, untended-to properties is worrisome.
They should sell them.
Farkas!
That’s my new term for SNAFU or FUBAR, BTW.
It’s a complete FARKAS!
Ex-Taylor Bean Chairman Farkas Gets 30 Years for $3 Billion Mortgage Fraud
By Tom Schoenberg -
Jun 30, 2011 7:45 PM ET
Lee Farkas, the ex-chairman of Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corp., was sentenced to 30 years in prison for leading a $3 billion fraud involving fake mortgage assets.
Farkas, who has been in custody since his conviction in April of 14 counts of conspiracy and bank, wire and securities fraud, was also ordered by U.S. District Judge Leonie Brinkema in Alexandria, Virginia, to forfeit more than $38 million.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-30/ex-taylor-bean-chairman-farkas-sentenced-to-30-years-in-prison.html - 85k -
Farkas!
I wonder if he looks like Scut Farkus?
Dewd. SUUUUUUUX for him!
Yes!
I sure hope my new schadenfreude meter gets here before it’s obsolete!
Seriously, good finds this week on perp convictions. Like I said, there was so much that it’s going to take a while, but this is what it will take to bring back any kind of faith in the markets.
How is the red-hot summer sales season looking, now that the year is half over?
June 30, 2011, 2:03 PM ET
Pimco’s Simon: There Was Never a Housing Recovery
By Dawn Wotapka
Bearish outlooks on housing aren’t hard to find these days, but one stands out even for this market.
Scott Simon, a managing director and head of global asset-giant Pimco’s mortgage- and asset-backed securities teams, is credited with foreseeing the housing crash and helping his firm dodge losses that plagued Wall Street.
In a lengthy Q&A posted on Pimco’s website today, Mr. Simon discusses everything from foreclosures to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Calling his outlook “dour” would be generous—home prices could fall more and the pain could drag on for a decade or more.
…
Realtors Are Liars
Fealty to Friars.
BofA Accord May Lead to Mortgage-Principal Writedowns, Bill Clinton Says
By Hugh Son - Jun 30, 2011 6:48 PM ET
Has forced this rebroadcast of a previous show.
This is Cousin Jethro back from the unemployment line and broadcasting from 98.6 WDBT Deadbeat radio FM
And it`s a BEAUUUUUTIFUL day to withhold another mortgage payment in West Palm Beach, how many does that make? 38? 48? Ah you Deadbeats I love ya.
This one is goin` out to Bill down in Boca, Bill hasn’t made a mortgage payment in FIVE, that`s right count em 5 years. HAMP! HAMP! I tell ya Bill you`re an inspiration to us all. Hang in there Bill and keep on stickin it to the man.
(STAY)
A-a-a-a-ah, just a little bit longer
(PLEASE)
Please, please, please, please
Tell me you’re gonna
Now, Bernanke don’t mind
And Bill Clinton don’t mind
If you take a little time
You won`t pay another dime, not
One more dime
Oh, don’t you pay-yey
Just a little bit longer
Please let me hear
You say that you will
Say you will
Won’t you stop your payments
Like miiiiine
Won’t you say that MERS is
A criieiiieiiime
(STAY)
Just a little bit longer
(PLEASE)
Please, please, please, please
Tell me you’re going to
Come on, come on, come on and …stay-yey-yey-yeh
No, no, no, no, no don`t pay-yey-yey-yeh
Come on, come on, come on and stay…
Come on, come on, come on…
Jeff- More great lyrics. You’ve got talent (and a sense of humor)!
POB Jethro….. please don’t forget CrackHeadRealtor!!!!
The DOW should easily blow past 12,500 today, now that the Geeks have been saved. Reports are as high as 124 billion in new funds that they won’t be able to pay back. Thank heaven for free money! Screw “austerity”.
So now we’re bailing out computer nerds, too? When will it end?
Done! Next issue.
Three months.
OPA!
I’ve been advocating for cram-down as long as the FB declares BK, but now I’m not so sure.
BofA May Lead to Principal Writedowns: Clinton
By Hugh Son - Jun 30, 2011 6:48 PM ET (bloomibergi)
Former President Bill Clinton said Bank of America Corp. (BAC)’s accord with mortgage-bond investors may give more “underwater” borrowers a chance to cut the amount owed on their home loans….
Bank of America, the largest U.S. lender by assets, agreed this week to pay $8.5 billion to bondholders who said they were duped into investing in defective mortgages. The deal calls for specialized servicers to manage some of the highest-risk loans, an arrangement that Clinton said could lead to debt reductions and avert foreclosures.
So-called sub-servicers “are often very effective at effecting principal-reduction modifications,” said Laurie Goodman, an analyst at Amherst Securities Group LP…
Brian T. Moynihan, 51, CEO of Bank of America, said in April that “we do not see broad-based principal reduction as a sound policy decision” for the country…
There is “enormous potential” to reduce the drag of U.S. housing on the economy if aspects of the Bank of America settlement are applied to the entire industry, Clinton said. The government could give an incentive to have that happen, he said.
www DOT bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-30/bill-clinton-says-bofa-accord-may-lead-to-principal-writedowns.html
————
Write down the principal enough so these poor people can flip their homes for a profit
A devalued dollar will take up the slack
Flip it? Just do a cash out refi and then stop making the payments and live there as long as possible. Much easier.
Go, Timmy, go. Don’t keep us in suspense, just go. And don’t let the door hitya where the good Lord splitya.
I vote for replacing Timmy with Elizabeth Warren. Wouldn’t that make for some fireworks in the Senate?
heh…. The corporatists would go unhinged with rage if that were to happen.
Not if they arranged an “accident” for her, first.
“Wouldn’t that make for some fireworks in the Senate?”
It’d be awesome. And bring back Brooksley Born.
palmetto and oxide
LOL, you’re not kidding. That dynamic dual is what we need. The DC govt mafia, and the banking cartel, would have a contract out on those two.
What`s that Lassie?
The DC govt mafia, and the banking cartel, have a contract out on Timmy?
Lassie! Go get help! Go Lassie Go!
jeff
They fly Timmy to the Ritz for lunch. They would hate Born and Warren as the dynamic dual. I would like to see Born as the Treasury Secretary. Would never happen, but a gal can dream, can’t she?
There is a great PBS Frontline Documentary on her (now online). She’s great!
I’d like to see a dual dynamic duo duel!
He should be replaced with Ben Jones. But he has to get paid breaks for blogging as a part of the employment contract.
Got my vote!
I think Bill Clinton has his eye on the position.
A while back, I read a book called Clinton in Exile: A President Out of the White House. Book made it pretty clear that Clinton had a tough time dealing with the transition away from the White House.
Much of it had to do with his needing to be the center of attention in a big crowd of people. Not being President provides fewer opportunities for such things.
He was also quite lonely at the big house up in Chappaqua. After all, Hillary had become a Senator and had pretty much relocated to Georgetown, where she still lives. What’s more, Chelsea was all grown up and gone, and Buddy the dog got killed by a neighbor’s SUV in January 2002. Bill was quite fond of Buddy, and took his death very hard. He’s since gotten another dog.
So, given what I’ve said above, I can understand Clinton’s purported interest in the position. Guy just can’t stand being out of the public eye.
Hey Bullard, just call it a “super duper” extended period. Problem solved.
Bullard Says Fed’s Extended Period Pledge for Rates Difficult to Prolong
Bloomberg
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the Fed’s pledge to keep interest rates low for an “extended period” represents the longest duration it can signal for holding down borrowing costs.
“I just don’t think it’s a viable option to say we’re going to go to a super extended period,” of low rates, Bullard said to reporters today in St. Louis. “We’ve already said ‘extended period,’ and it’s harder to promise anything even further out.”
The Federal Open Market Committee’s $600 billion asset purchase plan ends today, and Fed officials are discussing how long to wait before tightening policy. One of the “core ideas” to further stimulate the economy, without undertaking additional asset purchases, is to somehow lengthen the central bank’s current interest-rate commitment, Bullard said.
For now, the Fed has “gone on pause, we have to gather more information” to ensure that the economy will strengthen during the second half of the year, he said at his regional bank’s conference on quantitative easing.
“If the economy is not performing well the committee should consider taking additional action,” Bullard said, adding that “the situation today is very different from” the months before the Fed started its second round of bond buying in November.
“Inflation has picked up fairly substantially,” Bullard said, and the central bank’s record $2.87-trillion balance sheet “could turn into a lot of inflation if we don’t play our cards right going forward.”
Over the years these guys went from ‘froth’ to ‘contained’ to ‘extended’ and now ’super extended.’ They have a way with words.
Translation:
We aren’t sure how long the Chinese will continue buying our debt at record low levels of interest. If their economy tanks and they have to start spending some of that 3T dollars they have accumulated on the backs of their migrant workers, they will probably cash in a few chips. And if they stop buying nobody else will which means interest rates will have nowhere to go but up. Unless we continue to print and print, but we’ve run out of camouflage to hide any more inflation, so well interest rates will go up.
I await the day with bated breath that China and the USA go their separate ways. Oh, heady day.
“if they stop buying nobody else will which means interest rates will have nowhere to go but up. Unless we continue to print and print”
Not to worry, we’ll just tax the poor.
Let’s see …
1.6 trillion deficit, divided aamount amongst the bottom half of the workforce (those who make less than 25K per year) and you get $22,800 per worker!
Problem solved!
Why don’t they just say “our one-month $50 billion dollar asset purchase plan ended with our last purchase?” The “$600 billion” is just so obnoxious - it was a 2 1/2 year $2 trillion dollar asset purchase plan (or whatever.)
I’m glad we’re winding down our one-year war in Afghanistan with fewer than 100 casualties.
I went to see Elizabeth Warren speak last night (6/30/11) in Baltimore. Fascinating stuff. Some notes:
1) The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau website is: http://www.consumerfinance.gov/
Check it out. They do use the traffic on it to help bolster their case for the CFPB. Signing up to receive updates gives them more leverage.
2) The CFPB will not get full powers without having a director appointed, according to the rules. Obama can do a recess appointment, but Congress refuses to recess. Warren is the natural choice for a director, but the financial sector is directing its fully lobbying power against any director appointment, much less Warren.
3) The CFPB is going to open its doors on July 21st. Without a director, it will have some powers, but be crippled. They won’t have any power over non-bank lenders, among a variety of significant limitations.
3) There’s a hearing on July 14th. Daryl Issa is chairing it. Going to be a heated debate. Website traffic and email update signups will give the pro-CFPB forces leverage.
4) Warren said she’s a big believer in markets and contracts. She believes that the consumer entering any contract should know the price up front, and should be able to shop around for the best price. And clearly understand the risks involved. This makes the market work according to her. However, the current situation is designed to obfuscate both price and risk, so the consumer doesn’t know either up front. And so on the one side you have a consumer who doesn’t understand the risks and price, yet on the other, you have a business and a team of lawyers which then uses the government to enforce that contract. This has been a very lucrative situation for Wall Street, so naturally, they are opposed to any reduction of obfuscation.
5) Her basic goal is to make the price and risk clearly understandable, up front, in any contract, to the consumer.
Warren was absolutely enthusiastic about the CFPB. She believes it can really effect positive change. I think it can too. There is big money and high powered lobbyists arrayed against it. The July 14th hearing should be quite a show.
And finally, while I’m not a supporter, Congressman Elijah Cummings hosted the event. He is a strong supporter of Warren, and she credits him with a great deal of support and encouragement. He deserves credit for supporting her and for his support of the CFPB.
“She believes that the consumer entering any contract should know the price up front, and should be able to shop around for the best price. And clearly understand the risks involved.” (Regarding Elizabeth Warren)
I think the RE cartel needs to be held to full disclosure too. They lie through omission, and although the DOJ lawsuit helped (online info now) it didn’t go far enough, imo.The lack of transparency is driving us nuts. Our due diligence is another job.
Can’t people do that now? Can’t they learn the total price up front? Can’t they shop around for the best price?
Couldn’t they do that some years ago, during the big price run up? Sure they could, but they chose not to. Some even chose not to read the contracts they were signing.
It’s not the lack of information that is lacking, it’s the lack of interest in the information that is lacking.
Combo
We asked information on a short sale and REO and got the brush off. The REIC doesn’t like to disclose anything that might blow a deal. I had to go to the County Recorder’s Office to pull information the other day. I had to back into the information.
That’s the sort of thing I meant. If you ask a question to base your decision matrix on it, it should be disclosed. Not some diversion tactic.
Can’t get price up front in medical services. That would go a long way IMO!
Long story short- My daughter needed emergency surgery after a high school playing field injury, in Oct. The on/call surgeon charged more than double what my ins. deemed reasonable and customary. The HS ins. refused payment on the same grounds. I called the hospital to complain that no one told me that their emergency room surgeon was so expensive. He’s now demanding payment for $7,500. The Hospital administrator told me that it’s illegal to discuss fees in the emergency room.
Well looking at MBS could purchasers go through all the mortgages?? Nope.
Do they know everything their Mutual funds and pension funds are invested in. Nope. No easy way to find out.
I suppose perhaps some could. There is a lot of fine print. Making it less obfuscated is the goal, so that the core information - price and risk - is immediately apparent. Just like for a gallon of gas, or a pound of ground beef.
One shouldn’t have to have a law or accounting degree to understand the terms of the contract.
I vote for full disclosure for the medical cartel too.
Congress didn’t dump its recess because of Warren. They are working on the debt ceiling. They’ll recess in August again. Issa is an attention hog. He can shoot off fireworks, but he’ll be powerless if Obama appoints her.
Don’t we already have a similar agency in place?
No.
The closest thing is the retail consumer website, http://www.saferproducts.gov/
Actually, no. There are currently seven agencies which have consumer finance protection oversight responsibilities. Those responsibilities will be consolidated under the CFPB.
As Warren noted yesterday, “When everyone is responsible, no one is responsible.”
Oh, I understand now. Makes sense.
I remember periods in the past when politics heated up on this board and it annoyed me. This past week I did that, so I am making it a point to remind myself to avoid it.
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Interesting news about Dominique Strauss-Kahn. Seems the maid may have a few problems with her cred. I’m no fan of the IMF and I must confess to experiencing some extreme schadenfreude at the news that DSK had been exposed for being an old goat. Nothing chaps me more than an international elitist telling the world what’s best for the great unwashed.
However, I then read a Paul Craig Roberts article on how the guy was probably set up by Sarkozy allies, etc., etc. According to Roberts, DSK was attempting to do some things to ease the pain of some of the nations in financial straits and we can’t have that, now, can we? Just as PCR predicted, the case against DSK is unravelling fast. But the damage has been done. He’s out, LeGarde is in.
palmetto
It sure taught me a lesson about convicting someone from the media and soundbites. That IMF relationship trigger got to me. Now I know why someone is innocent until proven guilty. We’ll see how it plays out. (Although he is a womanizer, which gave them an “in”.)
This is from Paul Craig Roberts’ June 9th column:
“President Bill Clinton survived his sexual escapades, because he was a servant to the system, not a threat. But Strauss-Kahn, like former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer, was a threat to the system, and, like Eliot Spitzer, Strauss-Kahn has been deleted from the power ranks.
Strauss-Kahn was the first IMF director in my lifetime, if memory serves, who disavowed the traditional IMF policy of imposing on the poor and ordinary people the cost of bailing out Wall Street and the Western banks. Strauss-Kahn said that regulation had to be reimposed on the greed-driven, fraud-prone financial sector, which, unregulated, destroyed the lives of ordinary people. Strauss-Kahn listened to Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz, one of a handful of economists who has a social conscience.
Perhaps the most dangerous black mark in Strauss-Kahn’s book is that he was far ahead of America’s French puppet, President Sarkozy, in the upcoming French elections. Strauss-Kahn simply had to be eliminated.”
Count me among the skeptics regarding his presumed guilt.
Here we have a guy who is part of the clique. His cell phone list probably reads like a ‘who’s who’ of the international elite. And he’s going to rape a black maid who probably smells like toilet bowl cleaner?
Riiiight.
He may very well be a POS but it appeared to be nothing more than a political power play to me.
Slow down Einstein!
And he’s going to rape a black maid who probably smells like toilet bowl cleaner?
Not unprecedented really, even your founding father did it.
I don’t think they had toilet bowl cleaner back then yensoy.
Btw, who is your founding father?
Dude, there is plenty of physical evidence against DSK. If they are considering dropping the charges, then it’s only because someone is being paid.
I think they problem is the convicted drug dealers that were putting money in the maids bank account.
I think she was just being prudent and trying to save up to put 20% down on an apartment.
Interestingly enough, the prosecutor in the case is the son of Carter’s Secretary of State Cyrus Vance.
The physical evidence only proves that they did the nasty (toilet bowl cleaner or no), not that it was rape. It could very well have been consensual.
Yeah, consensual bruises on a hotel maid inflicted by an old man. So sure. With that logic, no rapist would ever be convicted.
Attacking the accusers credibility is defense 101.
What does the PHYSICAL evidence say?
AFAIK the PHYSICAL evidence says sexual contact occurred. Not sure you can prove much else.
A few possibilities:
1) The scenario was a political set up by DSK enemies.
2) Someone has paid off the maid.
3) The reality is that something other than what the two parties allege happen.
No idea which option it is.
I was reviewing various graphs of economic snapshots trying to correlate the them with the quality of music over the past 100 years. I don’t really see any correlation other than peak housing and peak auto-tune.
I guess you could say maybe the 70’s had some bad economics and bad music. I wasn’t around then. I’m using a simple metric: is the music appreciated for the culture around it, or the music itself, or both. The 80’s were interesting because there was a lot of cheesy pop, but the craftsmanship behind the songs was quality (like Duran Duran or even early Madonna).
I’m thinking about all of this because T-Pain was just on NBC, and nothing says Chinese Drywall in music like a pitch-shifting, algorithm driven hype man. But hey, his microphone was surrounded by a huge gold shield, so maybe soon T-Pain will be making all the rules.
I was around in the 1970s, and outside of a few notables and some very underground bands, the music sucked. So did TV. And clothing.
By the 1980s, I was heavily into very obscure, underground music as well as New Wave and Punk. New Wave for its pipelining of underground, experimental music to the public and punk for it’s brutal stories of an increasingly brutal society.
Rap/hip hop is SO last century. 20 years old already! (I first heard it in 1989) I can’t believe it’s still popular. Which tells me all I need to know about the stagnation of this nation.
“Rap/hip hop is SO last century.”
Check out Immortal Technique’s “4th Column”. It’s on u tube. He gets too conspiracy in some other songs, but that one’s excellent. I believe that the sample in from a tune off of Jim Morrison’s “American Prayer”.
When Rap starts sampling itself, the circle will be complete.
Already has.
Noticed the same correlation with TV. Considering using it for a stock market indicator going forward. The more reality TV there is, the more you should sell. The more actual shows with writers, the more you should buy. There was a lull in 2009, but lots of reality shows coming out again lately…
Maybe morning radio, too. All of those cocky morning drive DJs in the last few years. They seem a lot less opinionated these days.
The Durango Herald
Census report details housing, economic crash in county
By Joe Hanel Herald Staff Writer
Article Last Updated: Thursday, June 30, 2011 11:08pm
Anyone who runs a business or works for one knows 2009 was a very rough year.
Census numbers released Thursday show just how rough it was: La Plata County workers lost more than $66 million in paychecks from 2008 to 2009, nearly a tenth of the county’s private-sector payroll.
The county had 98 fewer businesses in 2009 than in 2008.
The data shows the deep effects of the housing crash.
Construction companies of all sizes accounted for about half of La Plata County’s business losses and the loss of 513 jobs.
The biggest drop in income came in the real estate sector, where the county’s annual payroll fell from 2008’s level of $24 million to less than $13 million a year later.
Ed Morlan, executive director of the Region 9 Economic Development District, was not surprised by the data, and he isn’t sure if the situation has improved since 2009.
“It doesn’t seem to be getting any worse,” Morlan said.
…
Tough times
Annual payroll
La Plata
2008 – $736,836,000
2009 – $670,477,000
Archuleta
2008 – $74,911,000
2009 – $66,566,000
San Juan
2008 – $6,689,000
2009 – $5,970,000
Montezuma
2008 – $199,978,000
2009 – $192,231,000
Dolores
2008 – $5,596,000
2009 – $5,063,000
* Does not include most government and farm employees or self-employed people.
Number of businesses
La Plata
2008 – 2,472
2009 – 2,374
Archuleta
2008 – 547
2009 – 508
San Juan
2008 – 69
2009 – 69
Montezuma
2008 – 827
2009 – 784
Dolores
2008 – 52
2009 – 44
Source: U.S. Census Bureau County Business Patterns 2009
2009. 2010. 2011 the worse to date. I’ve been sending out resumes this year and fending off customers who want everything free.
Eco, although I don’t know the area you are in, why not consider looking into Northern VA / DC if your string is played out over there. Seriously. There is plenty of money still funneled into Tier I ($1 Billion and above) programs. $200 Billion a year in IT spending for big program rollouts. The keepers I know about (across two departments) are funded through 2015.
Local IT color: 1) There is a real head of steam propelling Information Assurance. 2) in my observation, this is the only area of the country where you are not finis once you hit middle age. 3) Conceivably, one could get situated, use the next couple of years to get the certification du jour, and be well positioned for the next cycle of design and development.
Interesting. Thanks for the heads up.
The four corners area has always been an economic basket case. Don’t let those fancy houses in Durango fool you. Their owners don’t actually live there.
YES! Total comp-killer in my ‘hood. This one just closed for $216k. Across the street from the Gulf, 4/2…
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/16207-Gulf-Blvd-Redington-Beach-FL-33708/46987448_zpid/
Muggy you wrote this.
Just switch comp-killer for Maneater.
Maneater lyrics
She’ll only come out at night
The lean and hungry type
Nothing is new, I’ve seen her here before
Watching and waiting
Ooh, she’s sittin’ with you but her eyes are on the door
So many have paid to see
What you think you’re gettin’ for free
The woman is wild, a she-cat tamed by the purr of a Jaguar
Money’s the matter
If you’re in it for love, you ain’t gonna get too far
(Oh-oh, here she comes)
Watch out boy she’ll chew you up
(Oh-oh, here she comes)
She’s a comp-killer
(Oh-oh, here she comes)
Watch out boy she’ll chew you up
(Oh-oh, here she comes)
She’s a comp-killer
I wouldn’t if I were youI
know what she can do
She’s deadly man, she could really rip your world apart
Mind over matter
Ooh, the beauty is there but a beast is in the heart
(Oh-oh, here she comes)
Watch out boy she’ll chew you up
(Oh-oh, here she comes)
She’s a comp-killer
(Oh-oh, here she comes)
Watch out boy she’ll chew you up
(Oh-oh, here she comes)
She’s a comp-killer
I was hoping for an Ice-T “Cop Killer” version.
The zestimate map is a hoot. On one side of that road, the houses are sub-$200K. Across the road, on the beach, the exact same houses are $1M or more.
I echo the general gist of the comments: What’s the catch?
http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/01/news/companies/walmart_healthcare_medicaid/index.htm#disqus_thread
Wal-Mart takes on Medicaid
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — For the first time in its history, the nation’s largest retailer Wal-Mart is coming face-to-face with the nation’s largest insurer, Medicaid.
Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) is partnering with the Arkansas Children’s Hospital to provide legal support for Medicaid patients and their families, free of charge…
For instance. Tackling Medicaid’s administrative and bureaucratic hurdles are on Wal-Mart’s list.
“Families on Medicaid are hit with a myriad of red tape when they’re in the hospital,” Gearhart said.
So Wal-Mart lawyers are being trained to help families navigate Medicaid in basic ways, such as filling out the right forms, and in more complex ways such as procuring insurance for expensive treatments and medical devices like specialized wheelchairs.
———
One comment summed it up best:
“Why doesn’t Wal Mart just provide decent health coverage to their own employees? Then they wouldn’t need to chase Medicaid. Medicaid has become a type of corporate welfare - instead of Wal Mart actually paying money for health insurance for its employees, they just turn them over to Medicaid. The states should be sending Wal Mart a bill for their employees who are on Medicaid.” — tlh908
Medicaid to Wal-Mart:
Thanks to your involvement in lowering the average wage, Medicaid is now underfunded. We will no longer be able to insure your employees, so there is no longer a need to fill out a form. Thank you.
Badda boom, badda bing.
“Glenn Beck to move to Texas; rents $20,000-a-month house”
http://bestplaces.nydailynews.com/voyeur/glenn-beck-move-texas-rents-20000-month-house
Texas yin-yang “evangelical magnet” balance:
-(David Koresh)
+(Glenn Beck)
- Vanilla Ice
+ Bob Wills
+ Dwight D. Eisenhower
- George W Bush
Texas yin-yang “evangelical magnet” balance:
-(David Koresh)
+(Glenn Beck)
Isn’t Beck a Mormon? Not only do Evangelicals not consider Mormons to be Evangelicals, they don’t even accept Mormons as being Christians.
Beck is indeed a Mormon.
“evangelical magnet” is eyes as eyes see$ it…
Buy Gold!… Buy Gold!… Buy Gold!
Joe Smith / age 15 / gold searcher…
(In his late adolescence and early adulthood, Smith himself was paid to search for buried treasure with a seer stone. In the late 1820s, Smith said that an angel had directed him to a buried book of golden plates inscribed with a religious history of ancient American peoples)
Straight to hell where he belongs. Damn! Sometimes there IS poetic justice!
“…rents $20,000-a-month house.”
And yet, those who worship him think, “He’s one of us!” Just what IS the matter with Kansas??
I’ll give Beck credit for one thing: He didn’t but the depreciating mansion, and chose to rent it instead.
http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.htm
A record 44.7 million people on food stamps (SNAP), a fitting tribute to TurboTax Timmay as he ruminates on departing government “service”, and a fine dose of hope ‘n change from the merry wrecking crew called Obama’s economic team.
Yes, Obama caused 35 years of an economy based on ever increasing debt, at ever lower interest rates, issued with ever looser lending standards to reach its inevitable end-game of too much debt, people unable to make principal payments even at 0% interest rates, and standards so loose that fraud was the norm instead of the exception so they had to be tightened…
And he and his team are so skilled, they managed to make the economy reach this obvious end-game of the debt based economy 2 full years before even being elected.
(In case you missed the sarcasm, Obama is the victim of bad timing, NOT the cause of our economic issues. The root of our problem is trying to maintain an elevated standard of living even after the world had rebuilt from WWII and the American worker was not cost competative in the global economy.)
“…the American EXECUTIVE was not cost competitive in the global economy.”
Fixed it. You had everything else right.
It has nothing to do with WWII. The “global economy” is a fiction created by the Business Roundtable. The Business Roundtable is a group of CEOs who have used corruption to turn themselves into backdoor “leaders” (i.e., international thieves). Here is their website: http://businessroundtable.org/
Obama is also the victim of a Republican Senate who filibustered at all costs. They would rather see people DIE , or worse, LIVE IN POVERTY AND PAIN than lose an election.
We were 2-3 votes away from a Public Option, remember. Then every American worker could buy into at least some kind of monimum catastprohic coverage, and free employers — including Wal-Mart — of the burden of bothering with any health insurance.
“The vaunted financial markets are not rational. Indeed, they are the opposite. Financial markets turn obvious bad news into good news in order to drive up prices of financial assets. Truth and facts mean nothing whatsoever to financial markets. The financial markets are based on lies, illusions, and delusions that drive up asset prices. That is what you are investing in when you invest in Wall Street.”
Excerpt from Paul Craig Roberts column. And he should know. He was the Assistant Treasury Secretary under Reagan, among other things.
Investing is based on the belief that a greator fool will be available to buy the assets from you at a higher price than you paid.
Well, the housing bubble financial mania has finally affected me. My wife was laid off yesterday from her school psychology job in Los Angeles. There goes 50% of our income. Time to enter super austerity mode. At least we’ve saved diligently over the years, but damn, I didn’t want to have to dip into our home savings fund.
Sorry Captain
My guess is a lot of us will be having stories like this when all is said and done.
Sorry as well to hear that.
Seriously, if you can, get the hell out of that state.
We’ve thought about it, but my job is so perfect that as long as she can get anything, we’ll be okay. Although, there is some part of us that would enjoy taking other jobs elsewhere and paying for a decent house in cash.
Oil City baybeee!
Very sorry to hear this, CCC.
CCC, sorry to hear that.
“I didn’t want to have to dip into our home savings fund.”
I suspect this will be something many of us face as round 1 passes and we enter round 2.
CCC, just a suggestion (as I am sure you will be brainstorming a lot over the next few days): several psychologists in my school district do part-time consulting for at-home issues. They charge around $125/hr.
Great idea and she’s thought about it. She’d have to get the license from the state for a private practice.
Sorry to hear that. Please consider getting out to a cheaper location. What do you do? don’t mean to be nosy, but as Oxy sez, the DC area is Where the Jobz Are.
I knew a woman in CT who made a very good living as a consulting psychologist. Parents went to her to get their kids tested for learning disabilities, and then took schools to court for support services. As in, when it was unexpectedly discovered that their eighth graders could neither read nor add a column of numbers.
It was more palatable to argue that the kids had learning problems and send them to boarding school on the town’s dime, than to admit that the teachers in lower Fairfield County were so appallingly ignorant that they couldn’t tell these kids could neither read nor add.
Think about that. Not a single teacher over eight years raised his hand.
She was so good she ran rings around any arguments the unionized ‘professionals’ could come up with. The kids always wound up getting help. Several were sent to boarding school, as noted, the bill picked up by the (rich) town.
Happy Fourth of July weekend, all!
And may God damn The Housing Crime Syndicate and the realtors who perpetrated The Great Housing Fraud.
I guess QE3 really is in the bag.
The sexual assault case against former IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn was close to collapse on Friday,
Strauss-Kahn resigned from the IMF on May 19 and pleaded not guilty on June 6, vehemently denying the allegations. He faces up to 25 years in prison if convicted.
With his resignation, Strauss-Kahn severed all his ties to the IMF. Christine Lagarde, who has just stepped down as French finance minister, takes over the top IMF job on Tuesday.
Hmm he resigns and the charges are dropped??
Julian Assange are you listening the PTB can make the charges disappear if you just follow their instructions??
Why buy housing today when you can buy later for 50% less?
American Axle to shutter Detroit/Hamtramck plant
The Detroit News
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. today notified the 300 remaining workers at its Detroit manufacturing complex that the facility will close as early as Feb. 26, 2012, after the current labor contract expires.
The announcement follows six months of negotiations with the United Auto Workers to keep the plant open. That effort failed largely because there is no new work for the plant.
American Axle makes front and rear axles as well as steering linkages for full-size trucks, which have seen a drop in sales in recent years, and many of the utility vehicles it used to supply have been discontinued.
The work done in Detroit is expected to be consolidated at American Axle’s facilities in Three Rivers, Mich., or in Mexico. Both plants do similar work.
I have this gut feeling it will be Mexico.
Call me crazy.
Death by a thousand cuts. Those workers will never again make more than $500 a week, and many will be lining up for foodstamps to feed their families.
Universal Technical Institute lays off 195
Associated Press, 06.30.11
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — Universal Technical Institute Inc., which trains auto, motorcycle and marine technicians, said Thursday it has laid off 195 employees nationwide, or 8 percent of its work force, to cut costs.
The institute now has 2,270 employees on its 11 campuses in the U.S.
Article Controls
“While a reduction in our workforce was a difficult decision given the impact to our employees and their families, it was a necessary action to appropriately align our cost structure with our student population,” said Kim McWaters, CEO of Universal Technical Institute ( UTI - news - people ), in a statement.
The school had 18,800 full-time students enrolled as of March 31. Due to tighter regulations surrounding for-profit schools, the company said in May that it expects new student enrollment for the year will fall below fiscal 2010 levels, producing low single-digit revenue growth for the year. It warned at that time that it would be evaluating cost containment efforts in order to counter the weaker enrollment.
Those pesky new “meaningful use” clauses. No more recruiting the homeless and paying them to attend classes just to get federally guaranteed student loan money. Makes recruiting students a lot harder when you have to focus on them actually getting jobs using the new training after they graduate.
“No more recruiting the homeless and paying them to attend classes just to get federally guaranteed student loan money”.
Yea, I read about that sometime ago, wonder why it was just a blip on the MSM radar screen?
Because it’s a lot less entertaining than Snookie?
In addition to getting a university degree and taking a smorgasbord of community college classes, I’ve gone to trade school. It was a two-week program in bicycle repair and shop operations.
Good school, that United Bicycle Institute. I recommend the place.
Any-hoo, there’s a trade school program. Then there’s the real world. When I got that bike shop job, guess what? Bob the Boss didn’t care if I’d gone to UBI. After all, he’d hired other people from there.
The right and proper way to do things around his shop was the Bob Way. And that’s what I learned to do.
To this day, I still do bike work the Bob Way.
DOW up on good news in the manufacturing sector…
Manufacturing sector expanded faster in June as new orders, employment pick up
NEW YORK (AP) — Manufacturing activity recovered somewhat in June from a sharp slowdown in May, a private trade group said Friday.
There were more new orders for goods and employment picked up last month. But the index remains markedly lower than it was earlier this year, suggesting that the recovery is weak.
The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing executives, said that its index of manufacturing activity rose to 55.3 in June from 53.5 in May, the slowest growth in 20 months.
A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing sector is expanding.
The June increase surprised economists who had been expecting, on average, a further decline to 52, according to a survey by FactSet.
The factory sector has been the primary driver of the recovery, growing now for 23 straight months. Large manufacturers of industrial equipment and machinery, such as Caterpillar Inc., have benefited from strong growth overseas and a weaker dollar.
Growth had slowed sharply in May, however. High gas prices cut into consumer spending and there was an auto parts shortage stemming from Japan’s March 11 earthquake.
Consumer sentiment worsens in June as outlook sours
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Consumer sentiment worsened in June on jitters about the economic outlook and spending is likely to remain lackluster in the long-term, a survey released on Friday showed.
Falling gasoline prices stabilized consumers’ view of their current economic conditions, but expectations remained gloomy, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey showed.
The final reading for the consumer sentiment index came in at 71.5, down from 74.3 the month before. It was a hair below the preliminary June figure of 71.8 and shy of the median forecast for 71.9 among economists polled by Reuters.
While small spending gains can be expected in the second half of the year, the trend is more likely to vary between lackluster and zero than lackluster and robust over the next several years, the survey said.
“Resurgent spending is not on the horizon, nor is widespread retrenchment,” survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement. “Importantly, the consumer no longer has the financial wherewithal to power the economy into overdrive.”
As the dollar goes down we can work more in manufacturing selling around the world but be paid less in devalued dollars
work more get paid less new economy
New? You just described the last 30 years.
Exactly. I don’t get the devalued dollars will create more jobs here argument. We have nothing but devalued like you said…..
Collapsing the value of the dollar works to increase the GDP
1. When husband can send wife to work and or get a higher paying job.
2. When family can spend savings
3. When family can borrow money.
Over the last 20+ years we’ve gone through all of these.
Now printing money and handing to a small group of speculators or driving down the price of the dollar will only shift spending from wants to needs. This will lead to more unemployment not less in the long term.
I also suspect that as people are “forced” into frugality they sometimes realize that they don’t miss some of the things they cut back on.
Remember all the stories of people who lived through the 1930’s and how their outlook was permanently changed.
Not sure how we will be changed, but a different attitude towards just accumulating stuff, while bad for “the economy” because of the paradox of thrift, might be good for individuals/families.
Heat wave records fall: No relief in sight
Oklahoma City Weather Examiner
Today marks the 29th consecutive day over 90. That is a record.
Today is forecast to be the 10th day above 100 in June. That is a record.
Today marks the 34th consecutive day above normal.
June 2011 set or tied single-day record high temperatures on the 17th, 18th, 19th, and 27th. Those record temperatures were 103, 104, 101, and 103 degrees, respectively.
Oklahoma City is continuing to set records with the heat wave that has lasted much of June.
Oklahoma City averages 11 days in the month of June with a temperature above 90 degrees. Oklahoma City averages 1 day in the month of June with a temperature above 100 degrees. The average high temperature in June is 87 degrees. Our average high temperature in June 2011 has been 97 degrees so far.
Any way you slice it, it has been hot. With the heat, there has been a lack of rain. Actually, there has even been a lack of clouds. Only one day this month has been an officially cloudy day. With no precipitation, drought conditions have steadily worsened over the western one-third of Oklahoma, which is currently in an “exceptional drought.” This has also lead to many western Oklahoma counties to issue burn bans for their area.
It seems the only hope of rain would be for a hurricane to hit the Texas coast and travel northward to Oklahoma. That path is a fairly common one. Fortunately, the scientists at Colorado State University have predicted a 50% probability that the Texas coast will be hit by a hurricane this year. This morning, Tropical Storm Arlene formed south of the Texas coast. Unfortunately, the storm is headed west into Mexico. After the storm dies on land, its remnants are forecast to continue westward into the Pacific Ocean.
Today marks the 29th consecutive day over 90. That is a record.
People in Texas laugh at 90 degrees.
People in AZ laugh at 100. 117 tomorrow.
I cry at 90. Sometimes even 85.
Same here. I check out at 85. Gimme 60-70 all day, everyday.
its like a “dust Bowl”
Are you getting smoked out in SC? About 2 weeks ago, in addition to the high temperatures mentioned, fires in south Georgia and Saint Augustine were choking us out here in Jacksonville. Outside smelled like an ashtray.
No smoke in the midlands, we are having very dry weather, but I understand the bottom of our state is worse off.
The Declaration of Independence.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Declaration_of_Independence#Text
You should read the main body. REALLY read it.
Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.
He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.
He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
He has refused for a long time, after such disolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.
He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.
He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.
He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.
He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:
For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:
For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences
For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:
For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.
He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.
He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.
In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.
Any of this sound familiar?
Ecofeco
First time I have read the statement. Yes, many items do sound familiar. I guess history does repeat itself.
I often wondered why the USA separated. If all can be believed I now see why.
Texas Toast…
Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog
Hottest day on record in Texas Panhandle
The hottest temperatures in recorded history scorched large portions of the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma Panhandle, and southwestern Kansas on Sunday. Amarillo hit 111°, breaking its hottest day-ever record of 109° (set just two days previously, on June 24). Borger, Texas hit 113°, smashing the previous hottest day-ever record set on June 24, 2011 of 108°. Dalhart, Texas had its hottest day on record, 110°, beating the 108° on June 24, 2011. Dodge City, Kansas tied its all-time record with 110° (last seen on June 29, 1998). Dodge City has temperature records back to 1874. Yesterday saw the hottest temperatures of the month for Texas with 116.2° at Childress, Northfield, and Memphis (all in the panhandle region.) These readings are not far from the state record of 120° set at Monahas on June 28, 1994 and at Seymore on August 12, 1936.
Any word on Tulia or Floydada?
The Great Housing Scam bust threatened to expose all the other
treasons and corruptions and Monopolies and price fixinng and Wall Street and Corporations takeover and insane Globalism ,faulty tariffs ,outsouring, and your name it that was hidden by this fake boom .
The correction cycle hasn’t been any better than the takeover by the madhatters to begin with .
It is about the debt stupid.
A net import economy can only function as long as it can increase its net debt.
Since the world rebuilt from WWII and began kicking our tail in the global manufacturing economy, we have been using ever increasing debt, at ever lower rates, with ever looser lending standards to fund our ever increasing apatite for imported goods.
The junk bond bubble of the 80s, the tech boom of the 90s, the housing boom… all the result of trying to push too much new debt into the economy and the deregulation needed to get that debt flowing.
The solution to the melt-down so far has been to have the government step up as the borrower of last resort. Businesses and households can’t take on new debt? No problem… just have the government run a $1.5T a year deficit. Economy fixed….
Until the government can no longer continue to run $1.5T a year deficts… then we’re pretty much done.
There was no global economy until the United States decided to stop charging tariffs on imported manufactured goods. See my post above regarding the Business Roundtable. This is pure corporate domination.
With no increase in the debt limit that day is rapidly approaching.
GM’s U.S. June sales below forecasts
DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Co on Friday reported a weaker-than-expected gain in June U.S. sales and tempered its full-year forecast for the industry as some consumers were still holding back on buying cars.
“Some consumers have decided to sit on their hands and delay their purchasing,” GM U.S. sales chief Don Johnson told reporters on a conference call.
“We view this as temporary and we do expect to see a return to our projected SAAR trend line for the year,” he added, referring to the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales or SAAR.
“Some consumers DON’T HAVE ANY MONEY, and have decided to delay their purchasing…..”
Really, this sugar coating the truth is getting old.
some consumers were still holding back on buying cars.
Correction
Some consumers can’t afford a new car because they don’t have a job, are facing inflation, lost a boat load of money in stock market or real estate, and or saw their credit line slashed
Plus car prices have soared in the past few years. Even crummy cars like the Korean made Chevy Aveo list for as much as $20K when fully equipped.
A refrence point: I was able to buy a brand new Buick Lacrosse in 2006 for 20K. (disclaimer, I did use about $2000 GM Card reward bucks).
I took a looksie at the local Chevy dealer website. SInce the Lacrosse was redesigned I figured it wasn’t an apples to apples comparison anymore (plus new ones start around 30K - with a 4 cylinder engine!). So I checked out the Chevy Impalas: The one’s that are comparably equipped like our Lacrosse (which has been a peach) start around 30K. You can get them cheaper, but then they have smaller engines and lack basics like ABS.
They should get the big bucks, they police so well…
Finra Executives Get Big Payday
nytimes
Wall Street’s self-policing organization is getting richer - and so are its top executives.
Richard G. Ketchum, chairman and chief executive of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, earned $2.6 million in 2010, according to a new filing. His pay, which included a $1.2 million bonus, was roughly the same in 2009.
Finra, a private nonprofit organization that regulates more than 600,000 stockbrokers, upped its total compensation 9 percent last year to $540 million, as it added some 200 new employees to its ranks. The organization’s top 10 executives received nearly $13 million, up from roughly $11 million the year before, the organization’s annual report shows.
Finra says it offers big paydays to compete with compensation on Wall Street.
“Finra strives to have a compensation structure that is competitive with the comparable segment of the market,” Mr. Ketchum said in an interview earlier this year. “We have engaged an outside consultant, Mercer, that benchmarks salaries at Finra to make sure they are competitive with that market, but not excessive.”
Treasury confirms deadline for raising debt limit
AP
WASHINGTON — Congress has one month to raise the nation’s borrowing limit or the government will default on its debt, the Treasury Department said Friday.
Treasury officials confirmed the Aug. 2 deadline in a monthly update that assesses the nation’s borrowing situation. The United States reached the $14.3 trillion limit in May. Higher revenue and accounting maneuvers have allowed the government to keep paying its bills in the interim.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner urged Congress to raise the limit and “avoid the catastrophic economic and market consequences of a default crisis.”
President Barack Obama and Congressional Republicans are engaged in tough negotiations over resolving the issue. Republicans are demanding deep spending cuts as a condition of increasing the limit. But Republicans will not support tax increases, which Democrats say must be part of any deal.
A Democratic official said Thursday that the real deadline for reaching agreement is mid-July. That’s because congressional leaders need a week or two to finalize the details and line up votes.
The U.S. government will continue to take in revenue after the Aug. 2 deadline passes. But it won’t be enough to meet its obligations. The government borrows 40 cents for every dollar that it spends and that adds up to an average deficit of about $125 billion each month, the Treasury says.
In May, the government took in $175 billion in revenue and spent almost $233 billion.
I guess the government will just have to spend what it brings in. It doesn’t need to default on its debt. Current interest costs on outstanding debt is about $300 billion. Current federal revenue is about $2.2 trillion so there is plenty of money to pay the interest on the debt. The government can issue new debt to pay off maturing debt. There is no need to default, merely a scare tactic. Government just wants to continue spending more than it collects.
i’m for reducing the debt limit every year and forcing the govt to run a surpluss to meet the reductions.
OK, how about
Single Payer Health Care
Raise income limit on SS taxes
Bring back the jobs from Chindiexico
E-verify, no exceptions.
Treat all income the same (including inheritance and capital gaines)
Knock out loopholes for coporations
If corporations don’t repatriate their debt after a certain time limit, declare them a foreign company and slap tarriffs.
I’d talk about ending the wars, but that seems to be going along fairly well already.
That will go a LONG WAY toward reducing debt.
The DOW is enjoying all the good news. Au&Ag are getting pushed back, now that the Greeks are saved and the dollar is on solid ground, it’s safe to come out now. All is well, problems solved. Phew, that was close.
+1 Gawd’s chosen children have everything under control.
Duke Energy seeks 15 percent N.C. rate hike ~ The Charlotte Observer
Duke Energy asked state regulators today for approval to raise its N.C. electrical rates by 15 percent, including a 17 percent hike for residential customers, likely effective in February.
~ Our power company here in S.C. just asked for a 12% increase. They will get it, always do. Good thing folks have jobs and no problems paying.
I teach an MBA course at one of the local universities. I have the students prepare an analysis of an industry in which they have an interest.
In one of my classes I had an executive of the local Gas and Electricity Utility. His group did their presentation on regulated industries and as part of that presentation he went through the rate setting process. When he was done, I asked him (knowing well what the answer would be), ” given the nature of the rate setting process, what incentive does a regulated utility have to make any efforts at efficiencies?”. Candidly, he smiled, and answered “none”.
Suspicions confirmed.
Enron must have been super efficient.
Enron was anything but efficient. And, truth be told, the only part of that company that was a consistent money-maker was the pipeline operation. Which was what Enron originally went into business to do.
For more on how Enron was run into the ground, read Brian Cruver’s book, Anatomy of Greed: The Unshredded Truth from an Enron Insider.
With regards from your HBB Librarian…
In the past large energy providers with monopoly power would face off with all the other businesses in an area when they wanted to raise rates, now they just give the few remaining giants cut rates and raise the retail rates for everyone else.
Time for solar panels
Lockheed Targets 1,500 Job Cuts in Aeronautics ~ WSJ
Lockheed Martin Corp. said it plans to cut hundreds of positions in its aeronautics segment, citing efforts to improve the unit’s profitability and hold down costs.
The aerospace and defense firm is targeting about 1,500.
8 in East Bay admit to rigging foreclosure auctions
SF Gate July 1, 2011
Eight Bay Area real estate investors agreed to plead guilty to rigging foreclosure auctions in Alameda and Contra Costa counties, the Department of Justice said on Thursday. The investors’ actions suppressed competition for properties, keeping their prices noncompetitive, it said.
The felony charges, which result from a joint investigation by the Justice Department and the FBI, said the investors conspired to refrain from bidding against one another at public courthouse-steps auctions, which are the final stage in the foreclosure process. The investors then “would hold a secret, private auction at which each participant would bid,” the Justice Department said. The price difference between the public and private auctions “was the group’s illicit profit, and it was divided among the conspirators, often in cash.”
Foreclosures have multiplied with the housing downturn, creating a playing field for this type of activity. In California, lenders repossess homes that are in arrears on their mortgages by selling them at public auctions on county courthouse steps; hundreds of such auctions occur every weekday throughout the state. Many homes do not generate a bid and thus become the lender’s property; others are bid upon by real estate investors.
“While the country faces unprecedented home foreclosure rates, the collusion taking place at these auctions is artificially driving down foreclosed home prices and is lining the pockets of the colluding real estate investors,” said Christine Varney, assistant attorney general in charge of the Department of Justice’s antitrust division, in a statement.
This is confusing. A private investor bids against the public (which are private individuals) at the auction. Then he sells at a markup to other investors. This is fraud? Sounds just like flipping. Maybe the article is not complete, but like I said, I’m confused.
Yea, Jamie would make a great replacement, get to do even more of Gods work.
Who Could Replace Geithner? - NY TIMES
Timothy F. Geithner says he is staying in his job as Treasury Secretary “for the foreseeable future.” But in politics, things can change quickly. And with Mr. Geithner now having floated the idea of a departure, the question turns to who could replace him.
The usual suspects are known quantities to both Democrats and Republicans: Roger Altman, Erskine Bowles, Gene Sperling and Janet Yellen. Others possible candidates being speculated about on Friday include White House chief of staff Wiliam Daley.
Ben White and Carrie Budoff Brown of Politico say that Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, is “a strong dark-horse candidate.”
Dimon has said he is not interested in public office but many on Wall Street believe he would accept the job if asked by Obama. But the White House will have to decide whether Dimon, who leads the most successful bank in the U.S., is too closely aligned with Wall Street.
With Mr. Daley, a former JPMorgan executive, the White House would also face another kind of “Government Sachs” image problem if Mr. Dimon were to join the administration.
The usual suspects are known quantities to both Democrats and Republicans: Roger Altman, Erskine Bowles, Gene Sperling and Janet Yellen. Others possible candidates being speculated about on Friday include White House chief of staff Wiliam Daley.
List seems to be very heavy on Clintonistas, doesn’t it?
Which makes me wonder if the Obama economic bench isn’t very deep. I mean, if I were a coach fielding a team, I’d be worried about this one.
Why don’t the just do what they used to do at companies, and promote the undersecretary? Knows the ropes, but an unknown name.
The government needs a Celebrity Treasury Secretary as much as HP and Home Despot needed Celebrity CEOs.
Why skip the middle Demon and just hire Satan himself.
UPS Freight increases N. American rates by 6.9%
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — UPS Freight, a unit of United Parcel Service Inc. UPS +1.33% , said Friday it will increase its rates by 6.9% in the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The general rate adjustment takes effect on Aug. 1
New York to Lose Place as World’s Financial Capital: Bove
Friday, 1 Jul 2011 | CNBC
New York soon will no longer be the financial capital of the world thanks to a hostile government that has served up a menu of punitive regulations aimed at driving big banks out of the country, says analyst Dick Bove.
In his latest broadside against the post-crisis regulatory environment, Bove asserts that a recent spate of layoffs, particularly by Goldman Sachs, is just the latest sign that large financial institutions will have to take their operations overseas.
The result, he says, will not be good both for New York and the nation.
“The United States has adopted, as part of its core financial policy, the view that big banks are not good for the country, its economy, or its financial system,” the Rochdale Securities analyst writes in an analysis for clients.
“Simply stated, the United States does not want them. A series of rules have been put in place to assure that these banks are inhibited in both their growth and profit goals.”
Rules governing a variety of fees, capital requirements and trading rules are hammering at Wall Street giants, he says.
Bove points specifically to Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley as institutions that have closed branches, decentralized and otherwise made moves to take their operations abroad.
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
Seriously this country would be in much better shape if these guys left and we went back to local banking.
The problem of course is they will leave but hen keep their greasy underlings here to steal from our system.
A series of rules have been put in place to assure that these banks are inhibited in both their growth and profit goals.
And that must not happen no matter what those goals are.
Fine, let them go. And slap a tarriff on their “products.”
K. Bye bye. Go steal from another country.
Official Calls For Riverside, 12 Other Counties To Secede From California
RIVERSIDE (CBS) — Is the state of California about to go “South”?
Riverside County Supervisor Jeff Stone apparently thinks so, after proposing that the county lead a campaign for as many as 13 Southern California counties to secede from the state.
Stone said in a statement late Thursday that Riverside, Imperial, San Diego, Orange, San Bernardino, Kings, Kern, Fresno, Tulare, Inyo, Madera, Mariposa and Mono counties should form the new state of South California.
The creation of the new state would allow officials to focus on securing borders, balancing budgets, improving schools and creating a vibrant economy, he said.
“Our taxes are too high, our schools don’t educate our children well enough, unions and other special interests have more clout in the Legislature than the general public,” Stone said in his statement.
He unveiled his proposal on the day Gov. Jerry Brown signed budget legislation that will divert about $14 million in 2011-12 vehicle license fee revenue from four new Riverside County cities.
Officials fear the cut will cripple the new cities of Eastvale, Jurupa Valley, Menifee and Wildomar.
Stone said he would present his proposal to the Board of Supervisors July 12.
The new state would have no term limits, only a part-time legislature and limits on property taxes.
Why are they still creating new cities in California?
Kings, Kern, Fresno, Tulare, Inyo, Madera, Mariposa and Mono counties
he wants the water thats why he included counties that are not in S CA
this is just stupid news
I’m sure he’d like to secede without taking their share of the debt. Maybe we all could secede from the United States and leave little old DC to pay off all of the debts.
That very thought has crossed my mind. I expect that creditors might threaten states that try to do that.
And secession would cure these problems how?
Manheim Auto Auction lays off 96 employees
Intelligencer Journal Jul 01, 2011 Penn Township
Layoffs at the Manheim Auto Auction have taken twice as big a toll on its work force as expected.
An auction executive said today that the Route 72 business recently laid off 96 employees, not the “fewer than 50″ he predicted in early June.
Tim VanDam, vice president and general manager, explained that the number of layoffs rose because a new factor came into play.
The initial forecast consisted of jobs to be eliminated by the auction industry’s switch to more Internet transactions, in lieu of live auctions.
But Manheim Auto Auction then decided to eliminate the second shift in its detailing shop, due to a decline in institutional sales.
These are sales of vehicles which previously had been leased by manufacturers to fleets.
Leased vehicles typically need a thorough detailing job to make them ready to sell at auction, noted VanDam.
But the auction is seeing fewer leased vehicles today because, several years ago, the leasing business was slashed by the recession.
Now those leases are up and manufacturers are looking to move those cars.
“In contrast, our dealer business is exploding,” said VanDam.
“But dealers bring their cars here already detailed. So we have a bunch of excess capacity in our detailing shop.”
The other factor in the layoffs, as VanDam said in early June, is the evolution of used vehicle sales to online transactions from live auctions.
Three years ago, 5 to 7 percent of its sales were done online, he said.
Now, online sales account for 30 to 50 percent of its 500,000 annual transactions.
That industry-wide transition is forcing the Manheim operation to transform its work force.
Wealth Manager Cuts Stocks Exposure to Zero From 60%
Friday, 1 Jul 2011 | CNBC
Zero exposure to stocks is the best way to position a portfolio over the next few months as markets look set to remain volatile due to a “pretend and extend” strategy on Greece and negative indicators for emerging markets, Bruno Verstraete, CEO at Nautilus Invest told CNBC.
“Overall in our asset allocation, we have been pretty bearish on equities, having none – zero percent – since the beginning of April and that has helped us quite a lot in the past few months,” Verstraete said.
Nautilus will remain at zero percent over the summer, having come down from sixty percent in January, he added.
The firm is now nearly 75 percent in government bonds of varying maturities and just under 17 percent in corporate bonds, with the balance in cash, in the form of 3-month treasury bills, Verstraete told CNBC.
Verstraete said there was a lack of clarity over whether the latest round of austerity measures and aid for Greece amounted to a credit event, adding the impact of whether it was or not would be significant.
“I think the answer we haven’t got so far is whether or not this will be a credit event, I think that in the short term will determine the course of the whole Greek story,” he explained.
Three-month credit event.
Aww, Jeff, you got me back into the wordplay
Master of Appraisal, my Mortallica
End of stucco play
Crumbling away
I’m your source of self-destruction
Rates that pump with fear
Sucking darkest clear
Lending on your home’s construction
Refi you will see
More is all you need
Dedicated to
How I’m killing you
Come crawling faster
Obey your master
Your life burns faster
Obey your master
Master
Master of Appraisal
It’s pulling your strings
Twisting your comps and smashing your dreams