The Housing Bubble

Happy 4th of July to all the HBB’ers from a forward operating location far, far away

Freedom’s natal day is here. Fire the guns and shout for freedom, See the flag above unfurled! Hail the stars and stripes forever, Dearest flag in all the world. ~Florence A. Jones

Obama’s Economists: ‘Stimulus’ Has Cost $278,000 per Job
The stimulus is now causing the economy to shed jobs.
The Weekly Standard - Jul 3, 2011 •

When the Obama administration releases a report on the Friday before a long weekend, it’s clearly not trying to draw attention to the report’s contents. Sure enough, the “Seventh Quarterly Report” on the economic impact of the “stimulus,” released on Friday, July 1, provides further evidence that President Obama’s economic “stimulus” did very little, if anything, to stimulate the economy, and a whole lot to stimulate the debt.

The report was written by the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors, a group of three economists who were all handpicked by Obama, and it chronicles the alleged success of the “stimulus” in adding or saving jobs. The council reports that, using “mainstream estimates of economic multipliers for the effects of fiscal stimulus” (which it describes as a “natural way to estimate the effects of” the legislation), the “stimulus” has added or saved just under 2.4 million jobs — whether private or public — at a cost (to date) of $666 billion. That’s a cost to taxpayers of $278,000 per job.

In other words, the government could simply have cut a $100,000 check to everyone whose employment was allegedly made possible by the “stimulus,” and taxpayers would have come out $427 billion ahead.

Furthermore, the council reports that, as of two quarters ago, the “stimulus” had added or saved just under 2.7 million jobs — or 288,000 more than it has now. In other words, over the past six months, the economy would have added or saved more jobs without the “stimulus” than it has with it. In comparison to how things would otherwise have been, the “stimulus” has been working in reverse over the past six months, causing the economy to shed jobs.

Happy 4th of July everyone. Realtors and politicians are liars.

Can anyone spot the bubble?

http://dailyreckoning.com/files/2011/05/DRUS05-24-11-1.gif

Foreclosure overhaul leads to Hawaii housing glut
Hawaii’s strong foreclosure law protects homeowners but delays getting homes back on market

HONOLULU (AP) — When Hawaii passed a new law with extensive protections to prevent residents from losing their homes, it was hailed as the nation’s strongest foreclosure law — maybe too strong, many warn.

In response to the law, mortgage giant Fannie Mae directed its lenders three weeks ago to move all of its Hawaii foreclosures into the courts rather than use a mediation system the law created.

The courts say they’ll struggle to handle the load, with foreclosure cases already taking 12 to 14 months to resolve. Lenders are warning lawmakers that they don’t intend to use mediation at all.

The likely result will be further delays in getting foreclosed homes back on the market, prolonging the slow housing recovery at the root of the country’s enduring economic troubles.

The 102-page law, signed by Gov. Neil Abercrombie in May, requires lenders to show mediators evidence of legal authority to foreclose, and they can be sued for deceptive practices for missteps in following the law’s process.

The law also prohibits lenders from seeking deficiency judgments, which mean the homeowner still owes the remaining mortgage debt that’s not satisfied by a foreclosure sale. Such judgments are an option that’s still available if lenders instead pursue the court-run foreclosure process.

The law arose from homeowner complaints that out-of-state lenders often rushed the more common foreclosure process that doesn’t involve the courts. Residents said the banks didn’t have proper documentation or proof that the action was justified, and attempts to work toward payment plans and loan modifications were denied, even though those efforts would ensure banks got paid and property owners could keep their homes.

The law “closed the loophole in Hawaii foreclosure law that allowed lenders across the country to foreclose quickly … without our local families having a chance of any accountability, and without our families having a chance to explain their side of the story,” said Kim Harman, policy director for advocacy group Faith Action for Community Equity.

Fannie Mae decided to seek foreclosures in the judicial system rather than wait for the mediation process to be set up by Oct. 1. In the meantime, Hawaii is operating under what amounts to a moratorium on nonjudicial foreclosures.

Once established, the mediation system is expected to have a foreclosure turnaround time of four or five months — faster than the court process.

“Currently, nonjudicial foreclosures cannot be pursued in Hawaii. The judicial foreclosure process allows homeowners to raise any challenges to the foreclosure in court,” said Fannie Mae spokeswoman Amy Bonitatibus in a statement.

KoolAid stock seems to be undervalued, as more and more folks still seem to love the stuff…

Home Prices Poised to Climb as Foreclosures Wane, Donovan Says

By Kim Chipman
Bloomber/WaPo

July 4 (Bloomberg) — Prices for U.S. homes may climb as soon as the third quarter, ending declines as foreclosures decline make more home available for sale, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan said.

“It’s very unlikely that we will see a significant further decline,” Donovan said yesterday on CNN. “The real question is when will we start to see sustainable increases. Some think it will be as early as the end of this summer or this fall.”

Home sales have increased in six out of the past nine months and the number of property owners in default is declining, Donovan said on CNN’s “State of the Union” program. Housing prices will begin rising as the number of foreclosures declines, he said.

“In the long run, it’s a good time to buy,” Donovan said. “It’s so affordable today compared to where it’s been for generations.”

——————————————-

(Happy Fourth of July to all of you, rogue brains one and all…)

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/16-reasons-why-the-united-states-can-no-longer-afford-to-be-the-police-of-the-world

#15 Just one day of the war in Afghanistan costs more money than it took to build the entire Pentagon.

So we have to visit a bunch of cats this morning while their owners are out….and drive in Manhattan from the east side over to the west side 80’s and 113 and riverside dr…..hey faster your nabe…. just to make sure we have the rent money

instead of this being some extra $$ to spend on wants like a new laptop.

Yup happy 4th

Realtors Are Liars

I kept Article 10 because I do believe a Realtor would screw anyone regardless of their race, religion, sex, handicap, familial status, or national origin.

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Code of Ethics

Duties to Clients
and Customers

Article 1
REALTORS® protect and promote their
clients’ interests while treating all parties
honestly.

Article 2
REALTORS® refrain from exaggeration, misrepresentation,
or concealment of pertinent
facts related to property or transactions.

Article 3
REALTORS® cooperate with other real estate
professionals to advance their clients’ best
interests.

Article 10
REALTORS® give equal professional service
to all clients and customers irrespective of
race, color, religion, sex, handicap, familial
status, or national origin.

States cracks down on unemployment insurance fraud
States cracking down on jobless insurance double-dippers; 2010 benefit scams cost $17 billion

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (AP) — A nationwide crackdown is coming for people fraudulently drawing unemployment payments — those who were never eligible and workers who keep getting checks after they return to work — a $17 billion benefits swindle last year alone, say federal officials.

With the poor economy lingering and the jobless rate remaining high, Rhode Island and other states are stepping up efforts to stop the fraud and improper payments.

As much as 30 percent of the wrong payments in 2010 went to people who had returned to the workforce but continued to claim benefits, according to Dale Ziegler, deputy administrator for the Office of Unemployment Insurance at the U.S. Department of Labor. Those payments came even after a 2009 executive order by President Barack Obama seeking new policies to cut payment errors, waste, fraud and abuse.

Ziegler said states will be required to submit plans by Sept. 30 to the federal government on how they plan to curb such payments, Ziegler said.

“This is a national concern,” said Raymond Filippone, assistant director of income support at the Rhode Island Department of Labor and Training. “States across the country are stepping up and looking at overpayments and detection.”

Since last year, Rhode Island now has four investigators assigned to ferret out double-dippers scamming the system, Filippone said and will add a fifth this year. The state has also for the first time retained a collection agency to recoup incorrectly paid payments.

Filippone said the state has paid out $33 million in overpayments since 2008. The May unemployment rate in Rhode Island is the third highest in the country at 10.9 percent.

Providence resident Jose L. Roque, 43, is among 15 people charged last month with bilking the state’s unemployment benefits system. He faces one count in state court of obtaining money under false pretenses for allegedly accepting more than $20,000 in benefits over nearly four years while working for a Warwick landscaping company, court records show.

He was released pending a pre-arraignment conference next month. Roque has yet to enter a plea. Officials say people convicted of this crime are usually ordered to pay restitution as punishment.

“I kept working and collected at the same time. I know that’s my big mistake,” Roque said in a telephone interview. “I feel real bad. I’m sorry for that. … Before I had problems. You know, now I got more problems.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/dominique-strauss-kahn/8614282/Dominique-Strauss-Kahn-accuser-could-face-perjury-charges.html

Another criminal alien possibly to be deported, at vast cost to US taxpayers. Thank you, Republicrats, for letting our country be a dumping ground for the dregs of the planet.

FAAAARKAS, FAAAARKAS, FAAAARKAS WHERE ARE YOUUUU

FARKAS WHERE ARE YOUUUU

Farkas Where Are Youuuu

farkas where are youuuu

Soaring number of owners pay no property taxes in Broward, Palm Beach

By Georgia East, Dana Williams and Lisa J. Huriash
Sun Sentinel
Posted: 5:10 p.m. Friday, July 1, 2011

When Michelais Josemond bought his two-bedroom condo in Tamarac four years ago, he paid $185,000 and had a property tax bill of about $2,500.

Today, his apartment is worth $18,000 and his tax bill is zero.

He is among the more than 18,800 homeowners in Broward County and 16,700 in Palm Beach County–living in houses, condos or coops–who are not required to pay property taxes because the value of their units is less than their $25,000 homestead exemption.

That’s a 135 percent increase between 2008 and 2010 in Broward, and a 48 percent increase in Palm Beach, county records show. While these homeowners still must pay fees such as fire assesments, the loss of this revenue, coupled with a drop in tax revenue overall, is forcing municipalities to slash payrolls and services.

“The reality is nobody wants to be taxed,” said Scott Maxwell, a city commissioner in Lake Worth, which saw a 85 percent jump in untaxed property and expects a $4 million budget shortfall. “At the end of the day, if we’re honest with ourselves, we need to understand that each of us should contribute a little something to the community.”

In South Florida, home values peaked in November 2005, and then swiftly fell. The median price in Broward topped out at $391,100 but now is $165,000, according to Florida Realtors, a trade group. Palm Beach County’s median hit $421,500, and dropped to around $193,000. Over the same time frame, condo prices in the two counties have fallen by nearly 70 percent.

In 2008, as a way to give homeowners some tax relief, lawmakers approved increasing homestead exemptions from $25,000 to $50,000 on the non-school portion of the tax bill. It allows the first $25,000 of value to come off the top of a tax bill, but homes must be worth more than $75,000 for the $50,000 exemption to apply.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/real-estate/soaring-number-of-owners-pay-no-property-taxes-1575696.html - 82k -

Fannie Mae owns patent on residential ‘cap and trade’ exchange
By: Barbara Hollingsworth | Local Opinion Editor

When he wasn’t busy helping create a $127 billion mess for taxpayers to clean up, former Fannie Mae Chief Executive Officer Franklin Raines, two of his top underlings and select individuals in the “green” movement were inventing a patented system to trade residential carbon credits.

Patent No. 6904336 was approved by the U.S. Patent and Trade Office on Nov. 7, 2006 — the day after Democrats took control of Congress. Former Sen. John Sununu, R-N.H., criticized the award at the time, pointing out that it had “nothing to do with Fannie Mae’s charter, nothing to do with making mortgages more affordable.”

It wasn’t about mortgages. It was about greenbacks. The patent, which Fannie Mae confirmed it still owns with Cantor Fitzgerald subsidiary CO2e.com, gives the mortgage giant a lock on the fledgling carbon trading market, thus also giving it a major financial stake in the success of cap-and-trade legislation.

Besides Raines, the other “inventors” are:

* Former Fannie Vice President and Deputy General Counsel G. Scott Lesmes, who provided legal advice on Fannie Mae’s debt and equity offerings;

* Former Fannie Vice President Robert Sahadi, who now runs GreenSpace Investment Financial Services out of his 5,002-square-foot Clarksburg home;

* 2008 Barack Obama fundraiser Kenneth Berlin, an environmental law partner at Skadden Arps;

* Michelle Desiderio, director of the National Green Building Certification program, which trains “green” monitors;

* Former Cantor Fitzgerald employee Elizabeth Arner Cavey, wife of Democratic donor Brian Cavey of the Stanton Park Group, which received $200,000 last year to lobby on climate change legislation; and

* Jane Bartels, widow of former CO2e.com CEO Carlton Bartels. Three weeks before Carlton Bartels was killed in the Sept. 11 attacks, he filed for another patent on the software used in 2003 to set up the Chicago Climate Exchange.

The patent, which covers both the “cap” and “trade” parts of Obama’s top domestic energy initiation, gives Fannie Mae proprietary control over an automated trading system that pools and sells credits for hard-to-quantify residential carbon reduction efforts (such as solar panels and high-efficiency appliances) to companies and utilities that don’t meet emission reduction targets. Depending on where the Environmental Protection Agency sets arbitrary CO2 standards, that could be every company in America.

Read more at the Washington Examiner:

Exxon claims spill damage limited, gov. doubtful- AP

Teams of federal and Exxon Mobile workers are moving along the banks of Montana’s legendary Yellowstone River in an effort to contain damage and gauge the impact from tens of thousands of gallons of crude oil that gushed from a ruptured pipe beneath the riverbed.

Attempting to keep artificial­ly high housing prices from falling merely prolongs the disaster. Let prices fall to affordable levels and watch the economy turn around rapidly.

Consumer confidence slips in South Florida, where home values aren’t rising as in other metro areas

By Jeff Ostrowski Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 10:12 p.m. Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Chart shows brakes slammed on house price declines in 2009.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/consumer-confidence-slips-in-south-florida-where-home-1568434.html - 84k -

Happy 4th of July!!! Is there anything better than a chicken finger sandwich? Not housing related, but still.

ahansen, tankz for the weather update yesterday,…any afternoon lightning storms,…yet?

(Your’re indoor library ought to sustain your self-imposed sanctuary from extreme weather) Cheers!

x3 cheers for DSK & “Justice!”

Hip, hip, horray! Hip, hip, horray! Hip, hip, horray!

Bugs: “eh, could be doc… oh, wait Daffy just handed me something…”

“Anne Mansouret, the mother of Ms. Banon, said Saturday that she was “revolted” by the gleeful reaction of many men in France to the news that the case against Mr. Strauss-Kahn in New York had been compromised.”

Strauss-Kahn to Face New Sex Charge in France:
By ALAN COWELL / Published: July 4, 2011 / NYT

PARIS — “A French writer who recently said Dominique Strauss-Kahn tried to sexually assault her in 2003 will officially accuse him of attempted rape, her lawyer announced Monday, even as separate sexual assault charges against Mr. Strauss-Kahn in New York seemed to be weakening.

He said the facts of the Banon case did not constitute sexual assault but “an attempted rape.” Previously, Mr. Koubbi had said he and his client would await the outcome of Mr. Strauss-Kahn’s trial in Manhattan.”

“Developments in the case have stirred many emotions in France, initially spurring a new assertiveness among French women to challenge a code of silence about sexual harassment by powerful male figures. But talk among senior Socialists about the possibility of Mr. Strauss-Kahn’s exoneration — even though felony charges against him have not been dropped — seemed to slow the momentum of that movement. At the same, the reversals for American prosecutors reawakened dormant anti-Americanism with a broad feeling that France had been humiliated along with Mr. Strauss-Kahn by the American justice system.

“The overwhelming fact is that there is only one victim whose life has been shattered. It’s DSK,” said writer Bernard-Henry Lévy, a close supporter of Mr. Strauss-Kahn…”

Job$! Job$! Job$!
Fear! Fear! Fear!

The wheel$ on the “Military Industrial complex Inc. Bidne$$ bus” go ’round & “round, ’round & ’round…

Global race on to match U.S. drone capabilities:

By William Wan and Peter Finn, Monday, July 4

“At the most recent Zhuhai Air Show, the premier event for China’s aviation industry, crowds swarmed around a model of an armed, jet-propelled drone and marveled at the accompanying display of its purported martial prowess.

In an animated video and map, the thin, sleek drone locates what appears to be a U.S. aircraft carrier group near an island with a striking resemblance to Taiwan and sends targeting information back to shore, triggering a devastating barrage of cruise missiles toward the formation of ships.

Little is known about the actual abilities of the WJ-600 drone or the more than two dozen other Chinese models that were on display at Zhuhai in November. But the speed at which they have been developed highlights how U.S. military successes with drones have changed strategic thinking worldwide and spurred a global rush for unmanned aircraft.”

Military planners worldwide now see drones as relatively cheap weapons and highly effective reconnaissance tools. Hand-launched ones used by ground troops can cost in the tens of thousands of dollars. Near the top of the line, the Predator B, or MQ9-Reaper, manufactured by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, costs about $10.5 million. By comparison, a single F-22 fighter jet costs about $150 million.

Defense spending on drones has become the most dynamic sector of the world’s aerospace industry, according to a report by the Teal Group in Fairfax. The group’s 2011 market study estimated that in the coming decade global spending on drones will double, reaching a total of $94 billion.

China on fast track

No country has ramped up its research in recent years faster than China. It displayed a drone model for the first time at the Zhuhai Air Show five years ago, but now every major manufacturer for the Chinese military has a research center devoted to them, according to Chinese analysts.

Much of this work remains secret, but the large number of drones at recent exhibitions underlines not only China’s determination to catch up in that sector — by building equivalents to the leading U.S. combat and surveillance models, the Predator and the Global Hawk — but also its desire to sell this technology abroad.

$upport TruePatrioticCorporation$ Inc.!… Now!… Hurry!… They’re $uffering $o!

Op-Ed Columnist
Corporate Cash ConBy PAUL KRUGMAN / Published: July 3, 2011

“Watching the evolution of economic discussion in Washington over the past couple of years has been a disheartening experience. Month by month, the discourse has gotten more primitive; with stunning speed, the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis have been forgotten, and the very ideas that got us into the crisis — regulation is always bad, what’s good for the bankers is good for America, tax cuts are the universal elixir — have regained their hold.

— specifically, the idea that anything that increases corporate profits is good for the economy — is making a comeback.

Well, here’s what a spokesman for Eric Cantor, the House majority leader, told Greg Sargent of The Washington Post: “You can’t help the wage earner by taxing the wage payer offering a job.” He went on to imply, disingenuously, that the tax breaks at issue mainly help small businesses (they’re actually mainly for big corporations). But the basic argument was that anything that leaves more money in the hands of corporations will mean more jobs. That is, it’s pure trickle-down.

And then there’s the repatriation issue.

U.S. corporations are supposed to pay taxes on the profits of their overseas subsidiaries — but only when those profits are transferred back to the parent company. Now there’s a move afoot — driven, of course, by a major lobbying campaign — to offer an amnesty under which companies could move funds back while paying hardly any taxes. And even some Democrats are supporting this idea, claiming that it would create jobs.

As opponents of this plan point out, we’ve already seen this movie: A similar tax holiday was offered in 2004, with a similar sales pitch. And it was a total failure. Companies did indeed take advantage of the amnesty to move a lot of money back to the United States. But they used that money to pay dividends, pay down debt, buy up other companies, buy back their own stock — pretty much everything except increasing investment and creating jobs. Indeed, there’s no evidence that the 2004 tax holiday did anything at all to stimulate the economy.

What the tax holiday did do, however, was give big corporations a chance to avoid paying taxes, because they would eventually have repatriated, and paid taxes on, much of the money they brought in under the amnesty. And it also gave these companies an incentive to move even more jobs overseas, since they now know that there’s a good chance that they’ll be able to bring overseas profits home nearly tax-free under future amnesties.

Yet as I said, there’s a push for a repeat of this disastrous performance.

Happy Fourth to you as well, Mugsy!
How long are you going to be in Crete, anyways? It seems my son shifts locations every year! How are things going as far as your tension level there? Any bleedover from Greece?

On another note. I got back last night from my impulse trip to Oil City, and I am very glad I went. More later. On an imulse also, I looked up the stats on City-Data, and was astonished to recognize the unmistakable voice of our own ByeFl, from 2007-2008, also testing out his perceptions in another arena. It was with great poignancy that I read the thread, which has a super collection of photos - much better than the ones I snapped, and certainly more numerous.

http://tinyurl.com/6kbpqru

You remember him - slightly nutty, young, but with a burning desire to strike out on his own. To Oil City. Who knows where he ever found the name? But he inflamed our collective imaginations. A good natured former engineer turned big city emigre from Boston who moved to an Oil City Plan town in Ohio drove to Oil City to take photos as a friendly gesture towards our friend. The thread above contains the photos, and the commentary.

It was around the time of that thread that the kid went silent. I remember he used to say he could not tolerate heat, and that his father didn’t want him to leave. I recall that a long period of illness tends to keep people insulated. I am not sure that ByeFl was aware that his business ventures were unlikely. I think it possible that he may have been imagining a different life, one with the adventure of freedom and independence.

I now regret the fun we used to poke at him. Imagining Oil City may have been the only avenue open to him, and he certainly did it with enthusiasm.

Western PA is spectacular, visually. I first went to Titusville, and worked my way down Rte 8, North to South. Titusville has a drop dead gorgeous grand old Main Street, maybe ten blocks long. College kids were having a genteel party on the porch of one of the fabulous old houses, not a single one of which was like another. The houses on Main Street really WERE mansions, and for this stretch, on both sides, have been kept up. Lot of pride there.

I hypothesize this is diminishing third generation wealth, hit hard by investment returns at ZIRP, hanging on. The kids have gotten the hell out of Dodge. The oldsters never left. Why should they? They will never live like that anywhere else. The descendents of the original servants and small shopkeeper populate the modest asphalt shingle dwellings in the side streets. Of course Social Security is not enough to maintain a house, especially in that climate, so other than for the old money on Main Street, the houses need some maintenance. The folks in their 20s - 30s and 40s, who would normally keep up the edifices in which they live - they have ‘disappeared’. Population in 2008 was 5251, down 20.6% from 1990, down 15% from 2000 - the past ten years has accelerated the exodus.

Bombed out downtown street, parallel to Main Street, with blocks of vacancies and boarded windows where there were erstwhile businesses in the grand old brownstone and marble buildings. There were some 50s construction concrete block buildings in between the grand old ones. Jarring contrast, that cheap crap next to those brownstone/limestone edifices. Their storefronts were mostly empty also - a Family Dollar, a Salvation Army, other purveyors to the impoverished . The Amish bakery had shut down several years ago, judging from the grime on the ‘for rent’ sign and inside the windows. The local parocial school, St. Titus, a lovely old brick building, has closed. Very little graffifi. There is a defiant sign on the corner where it stands, identifying it as the future home of the Titusville YMCA. On this July Fourth weekend, not a soul was doing the grand promenade down Main Street, and not a child on a bicycle was in view - other than those college kids on the porch, nobody was out enjoying the day, or one another’s company.

Another block south, again parallel to the grand old houses, the beer distributor is located across from the supermarket and Rite-Aid. It was doing a steady trickle of drive through business. All smiles, with three guys on the payroll happily bustling. Must be the richest guy in town.

I went to Drake Well (thanks, Skye!) , a tiny appendage of modest houses spectacularly situated across Oil Creek, overlooking it across from Titusville, nothing of the same scale, but (to my mind) tucked away and very appealing. The Drake Well museum is on spectacular grounds, as in, the groundskeeper is an artist with a LOVE of big iron - gears, valves, turnings, pipes, connectors, and boilers, along with a gardener’s eye for landscape. It commemorates the first oil strike in North America on August 27th, 1869, at a depth of 69 feet. The museum is next to a large state park. It looks like the Garden of Eden. Bike trails everywhere.

There were four people at the museum sharing one car. I exchanged pleasantries with one of them, while his younger brother (late 20s) squirmed. Two brothers, a mom and dad, driving from DC to Niagara Falls in a rental car. They were from Rio De Janeiro. I asked the young man what gave him the idea to stop by at this out of the way place, since he is from far away Rio. He’s in the oil bidness, but in Brazil all the oil is under the sea. His brother’s professor in Rio gave him the idea.

I would love to have stayed in the Oil Creek Family Campground, a pleasant place surrounded by state forest, five miles south on Rte 8 going down to OC. This is the destination resort, as it was packed, and with people who had out of state license plates. $23 bucks a night for a site with a ?hook up? - less for a ‘primitive’ site. The 10′ by 10′ tents were the most popular size, there were rustic as well as hookup sites, also five or six cabins, some with electricity (2 BR, $45 per night), some without ($35 per night). The campground had the highest concentration of people I saw in one place of either Titusville, Drake Well, Rouseville (in between Tville and OC), or Oil City. It was the ONLY place that had more than a ghostly straggle of kids. There were no 7-11s or other stores in the intervening five miles from Titusville.

The YMCA is in every town, I am sure it is one of the nexuses of civilization. That, and there is an abundance old style grand old churches in each town - the old fashioned kind, complete with slate roofs and soaring steeples, stained glass and granite or brownstone fronts. Edifices to inspire confidence in the practical capabilities of the Almighty.

Worked my way ten miles down on Rte 8 to Oil City. Current population 8,524; a 31% decrease since 1990, and a 26% decrease since the 2000 Census. As with Titusville, the bulk of the flight happened over the past ten years. The town is bisected by the Allegheny River into the Northside and Southside. The Northside is further bisected by Oil Creek. I saw Northside first. It is seedy. You could tell from a distance. The downtown is empty. Two lifeless canyons flanked by the shibboleths of Mammon - hundred foot tall brownstone and granite buildings that used to house the bank, and the Transit Center - this was huge, must have comprised half a block by itself. This is the one that has been converted to artists’ lofts. I guess Oil City made its name as a transit center. There were some storefronts, a few eateries - closed. The storefronts were vacant and for lease. A few economic development-type businesses, originally targeted to those on the downlow, also now moribund. ONE restaurant/bar. Maybe it would open later in the evening. This was the afternoon before a Saturday night. There was nobody out on the street.

There is an enormous and incongruous five level public parking garage. If you are all prepared with an ice fishing shack, that there would make a perfect year round homeless campsite, being as it is quite close to running water, being right on the Allegheny River. I’m sure people in the know have better ideas for more insulated and less - umm, characterless? - shelter. There’s a sort of surly poetry to it, though - being rendered obsolete in a depopulating town, and waiting for matters to unwind in a parking garage.

Then went to Southside in search of Muggy’s house. Muggy, that is a made up listing on realtor dot com. The houses on Second Street are similar, but that number does not exist. I did not seek out a realtor.
Southside has its own little downtown, not as commercial and forbidding. It has the Y, the library, a few blocks away a Rite-Aid. That kind of thing.

There ARE spectacular old houses in Oil City. Some are run down. Some have been lovingly restored by people like us, who imagine ourselves on the Oil City Plan. Who have bought for cash. And are willing to spend the money - vanished since the 60s - to bring great old houses back up to code. There are great houses in both Oil City and Titusville that can be had for under $30K. Probably under $20K if you have a good eye and a good inspector and know how to make the case that it is ridiculous to make $40K in improvements for a house that will not be sold again, in a population exodus, for more than $30K.

If you bring community WITH you, it would be very doable. We could ALL go Oil City next month, and live on less than $10K per year. Once we got the electrical up to code, the solar panels installed, the woodstove up and running, the house insulated and all that. I don’t know why, but the lot sizes leave much to be desired in both these places.

As the man says, you need a TON of dough going in to do a proper rehab on a house that’s worth rehabbing. And you’ll be hard pressed to get an honest price unless you have feet on the street there. If a house has 60 amp wiring without a meter on the outside, e.g., with random wires running in from the electric pole through holes in the siding to the inside, that’s a 10K whole house rewiring job right there. Given that in Oil City, there hasn’t been much to do for at least a generation, the biting reality of house maintenance on a fixed or declining income has had predictable effect. The houses that are kept up are either from the remnants of the original owners and their wealth, or by carpetbaggers.

Both Titusville and Oil City are white, and permeated with the Eastern European Catholic stolidity which - if you’re familiar with that culture - has its own charm and stability. It does not tolerate crime. I don’t see wilding happening here. Simply too jarring culturally, the National Guard would be called in. There is some talk about drugs etc, although I don’t see this area of the country becoming a destination of choice for drug dealers. Not enough free flowing cash. Demographics by age show a comparative bump in the 16-24 crowd (go back home when you can’t find a job?). Oil City, despite its manses, is hostile for older folks - too darn many hills, too steep, and they will be a b*tch in the winter. From that standoint, Titusville - being quite flat - is much more suited as a destination area for the elderly. Although I can’t find a demographics breakdown, the people I saw and waved at in my jaunt through town were on the greying side, and the Marine Corps flags and bunting hung out for Fourth of July was faded.

OTOH (look, I’m sorry, my son is a Marine, OK?) Oil City is more defensible. Knock out the bridges and anyboy crossing the Allegheny on foot or by boat will be like a duck in a shooting gallery. Regrettably, there are quite a few miles of Allegheny to patrol to make it effective, but you are on high ground (I told you it was hilly, right?) The area is what it is. It is glorious with natural beauty. The state has done a fabulous job in establishing and maintaining biking trails. There is still oil in the ground which will be profitable at $150 / barrel. Will it be in my lifetime? Most likely yes.

here’s a more cheerful set of photos of Oil City. http://tinyurl.com/3rgl9t8

All you survivalists out there: there is no need to go to the waterless arroyos of the high desert plateaus in Montana and Utah, or to the Badlands in South Dakota. Anything you could want is in NW PA.

I’m game for another road trip.

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/what_our_declaration_really_said_20110703/

What our Declaration of Independence really said.

http://market-ticker.org/

Florida Libertarians call on Sheriffs to arrest TSA agents.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/04/us-britain-banks-jobs-ifr-idUSTRE7633RT20110704

TBTF banks are slashing jobs. Good. Nothing like throwing the mid- and lower-level staffers under the bus to loosen their tongues about the fraud they witnessed or participated in while with their former employers. And there’s no justice like being cast adrift in the pitiless, looted shell of an economy their former employers and their lobbyists have created.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=189355

Banks reducing principal? This signals rising concern about rising levels of non-performing loans, to me.

Filed: “She wrote a long letter, on a short piece of paper” The Traveling Wilburys

Stay focu$ed America:
“Linda the lunch lady lives lavi$hly!” …”We care about you, really,… we care”

“Every working American should be dismayed by — and afraid of — what BMW is doing.”

Roger Tango Charlie!

BMW layoffs exemplify the evisceration of the middle class:

Los Angeles Times)July 03, 2011|Michael Hiltzik

“These employees exemplified the best qualities of the American worker. They devoted their working lives to BMW, at a time when it was building and solidifying its U.S. beachhead. Their wages, with benefits, paid for a reasonable middle-class lifestyle if they managed it carefully. Throw in the job security they were encouraged to expect, and they had the confidence to make sacrifices and investments that contributed to the economy for the long term, like college education for the kids, an addition on the house, a new baby. Then one day they were handed a mass pink slip, effective in a matter of weeks.

The harvest will be weighed in foreclosed homes, college educations deferred or abandoned, new cars left in the dealers’ lots (BMWs not excepted) and consumer goods on the shelf, one more little cascade of blows to the U.S. economy.

By all accounts, BMW’s parts distribution warehouse in Ontario was one of the jewels of the company’s system.

Supplying dealer service departments throughout Southern California, Arizona and Nevada, it received gold medals from BMW for its efficiency and employed several of the top-ranked workers in the country. In the roughly 40 years its workers had been represented by the Teamsters union, there had never been a labor stoppage.
Times being what they are, when a Teamsters committee came to the plant in early June to open negotiations over a new contract to start Sept. 1, they thought they might be asked to accept minuscule wage increases and maybe some givebacks on health coverage.

They were stunned by what they heard instead: As of Aug. 31, the plant would be outsourced to an unidentified third-party logistics company and all but three of its 71 employees laid off.

The union contract will be terminated. Some of the employees might be offered jobs with the new operator, but there are no guarantees. And no one expects the new bosses will match the existing $25 hourly scale or the health benefits provided now.

The average seniority of employees at Ontario is about 20 years; five have spent 30 years or more at Ontario or its predecessor warehouse in Carson. Of the employees to be laid off (according to a notice BMW sent the union), 27 are age 50 or older. The word that came most often to the lips of workers and their families I’ve talked to is “devastated.”"

http://www.chicagobreakingnews.com/news/local/chi-teachers-union-endorses-obama-20110704,0,7205539.story

No surprise that the entity most responsible for the destruction of the American public school system and propagation of the “everyone’s a winner” curriculum that churns out half-educated dolts unable to compete in a global economy, the NEA, has endorsed a President that that taken a similar wrecking ball to what remains of the middle class.

“Just enjoy and be happy. That’s the main part of being a citizen, of July Fourth.”

A family from Ireland and Canada, an immigration counselor from Ecuador and a Vietnam veteran from the Philippines all became U.S. citizens through naturalization.

The emotions of achieving that dream course through their thoughts on what it means to have chosen to become an American.

They chose to become Americans:
By THERESA WALKER / THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER / Published: July 1, 2011

Civic duty:

“I have liberty: Walking in Huntington Beach, looking for shells, playing catch – with the family together and friends. Barbecue dinner, watch the parade and enjoy the sunset and fireworks.

When I took the citizenship it mostly was to advance my career, to have my quality of life upgraded. It has a deeper meaning now.

I want to give back to the community. I want to participate.
That was my big goal, to become a citizen. It’s the career. Upgrading our way of life. And then the other one was education.

When I became a citizen, in that moment, it’s a free chance to see that the name American is mine.

And then with the employment, they have an equal opportunity, without regard to age, where you were born, gender, religion, things like that. So I said, Wow!

Vincent Agor, 80, of Westminster became a citizen on June 21, 1968, in between two tours of Vietnam while serving in the U.S. Coast Guard. World War II shaped his childhood in the Philippines – when he was 11 he dressed in his sister’s clothes to escape Japanese soldiers. The Americans inspired him.
He and his wife, Jeanne, raised their family – two girls and a boy – in the same Westminster home they’ve lived in for 37 years. He retired as a chief warrant officer after 30 years in the Coast Guard.
His volunteerism is expansive: election poll worker, Meals on Wheels, member of his city’s Commission on Aging and the statewide Senior Citizen Advisory Council, usher at his church, member of veteran’s organizations who pays regular visits to the VA hospital in Long Beach.

In the war, I respected the uniform. They were the guardian of me. I said, eh, I want to be like that too, helping people. And freedom is there.
So I joined the U.S. Coast Guard in the Philippines. I came to the United States on a troop, cargo ship. That was in 1955.”

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2011/07/i-feel-this-story-should-be-heard.html

There’s never been a better time to buy a cheap retirement home in Mexico. Although you may not be around long enough to enjoy it.

“Everybody is going to feel the stress, but the United States of America is better placed to surf this transformation than any other country. Change is our home field. It is who we are and what we do. Brazil may be the country of the future, but America is its hometown.”

Happy Fourth of July.

By WALTER RUSSELL MEAD / OPINION / JULY 2, 2011.
The Future Still Belongs to America
This century will throw challenges at everyone. The U.S. is better positioned to adapt than China, Europe or the Arab world.

Closer to home, Hugo Chavez and his Axis of Anklebiters are descending towards farce. The economic success of Chile and Brazil cuts the ground out from under the “Bolivarean” caudillos. They may strut and prance on the stage, appear with Fidel on TV and draw a crowd by attacking the Yanquis, but the dream of uniting South America into a great anticapitalist, anti-U.S. bloc is as dead as Che Guevara.

The great trend of this century is the accelerating and deepening wave of change sweeping through every element of human life. Each year sees more scientists with better funding, better instruments and faster, smarter computers probing deeper and seeing further into the mysteries of the physical world. Each year more entrepreneurs are seeking to convert those discoveries and insights into ways to produce new things, or to make old things better and more cheaply. Each year the world’s financial markets are more eager and better prepared to fund new startups, underwrite new investments, and otherwise help entrepreneurs and firms deploy new knowledge and insight more rapidly.

Scientific and technological revolutions trigger economic, social and political upheavals. Industry migrates around the world at a breathtaking—and accelerating—rate. Hundreds of millions of people migrate to cities at an unprecedented pace. Each year the price of communication goes down and the means of communication increase.

New ideas disturb the peace of once-stable cultures. Young people grasp the possibilities of change and revolt at the conservatism of their elders. Sacred taboos and ancient hierarchies totter; women demand equality; citizens rise against monarchs. All over the world more tea is thrown into more harbors as more and more people decide that the times demand change.

This tsunami of change affects every society—and turbulent politics in so many countries make for a turbulent international environment. Managing, mastering and surviving change: These are the primary tasks of every ruler and polity. Increasingly these are also the primary tasks of every firm and household.