Local Market Observations
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Vacancies? “While local housing vacancy rates remain relatively low, nearly every Lehigh Valley town has more vacant homes or apartments today than in 2000. Allentown and Easton, and small rural boroughs such as Bangor, Portland, Walnutport, Slatington and Bath have it hardest, with close to one out of 10 units vacant. Alan Jennings, executive director of the Community Action Committee of the Lehigh Valley, the region’s largest advocate for the homeless and low-income, said many New Jersey and New York investors hoping to take advantage of a hot rental market in the mid-2000s bought inexpensive properties in urban areas such as downtown Easton and Allentown. When the economy went south, their investments went with it, and many ended up in foreclosure.”
Though foreclosure data is broken up by county and not city, there is little question that the number has spiked. In 2007, banks foreclosed on 500 residential properties in Lehigh and Northampton counties, but that number shot to 3,199 in 2010, according to RealtyTrac.”
Sales statistics? “Sales of new condos in the Washington region plummeted to a new low during the past 12 months, according to the Delta Associates Mid-Year Washington/Baltimore Condominium Market Report. During the 12-month period ending in June, new-condo sales in the region fell by 43 percent to 1,487 total, according to the report. The pace was slower than any corresponding period during the recession.”
“In some cases — most notably Arlington — new units were competing in price with ‘certified pre-owned’ condos developed during the boom years and selling at a discount.”
Or foreclosure? “A planned Mount Holly subdivision went down before the project really got off the ground. And a nearby neighborhood saw three lots go into foreclosure at the same time. Some 44 acres on Old Hickory Grove Road was slated to become Meadow Brook Estates, the intended site of more than 70 homes.”
“In mid-June, however, CommunityOne Bank apparently foreclosed on property, with a tax value of more than $1.2 million. Former owner Ron Dimmer says he could no longer stand the $20,000-a-month payments, and he was expecting a loan modification plan to keep foreclosure at bay.”
“Dimmer & Sons Construction did manage to sell the subdivision’s model home in 2009. Valued at $327,000, it went for $266,000 in late 2009. Now, the once-graded land around it is overgrown and the cul-de-sac has become an illegal dumpsite, a tattered mattress in the road and a broken down cabinet in the weeds by the curb.”
“Local and state government regulations, along with high tax values, spelled the end for that project, according to Dimmer. He said the same was true at three lots on Mount Holly’s Rhynes Estate, where the $60,000-plus tax value was more than double what parcels were selling for in the end.”
Just got a card in the mail from NV homes. 3 level 3/2.5 Garage Mahals From The Upper $390’s in Germantown. This is the first town in the outer burbs. At least 15-minute drive from the end of the Metro line. Sorry, I’m not paying upwards of $400K for attached product. To me, attached product is “affordable housing.”
The ad also says: “Only 20 Townhomes to be Built!” Interesting.
Px;
You would be surprised at how junky cars are at rich peoples train stops We call em station cars 10-15-20 year old cars just for the 5-15 mile drive back home. The prius & suv’s stay at home.
Yep, the mommy-mobiles. Honestly if all you need is to get to the train station, why not use the junker?
But it does show how much money people are putting into those houses.
I remember in the 80s recession Audis, Mercedes, BMWers and the like used to get keyed. You’d hear the stories pretty regularly. In two different cases in two different places it was the companies’ owners’ new vehicles that took the hit. In both instances it was right after a wage freeze or layoff wave when the owner came in days later w/ his new Jag or Mercedes. Can’t believe someone risked their job for it but I guess maybe one of the more unstable ones allowed themselves to get that mad.
Not that I had deep pockets but I dressed like I was comfortable when I worked in Boston. However, I purposely chose some less older, more run down looking outerwear and footwear for the trainride & walks to the building just so I wasn’t a screaming target. My particular station across from the John Hancock Tower had some pretty regular reports of people being jumped. Wouldn’t be surprised if those car owners at the station were taking similar precautions.
Today’s wishing price home:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/17805-Striley-Dr-Ashton-MD-20861/37200856_zpid/#{scid=hdp-site-map-list-photos}
It’s a 1967 4/2 on an almost-acre. A little far out of the way. Needs some work. Empty house — obviously shadow inventory.
For sale for $365K. 2004 price was $250K. In fact most of the DC prices seem to be stuck in 2004. Still too high. The bubble began in 2002.
Not much else new on the market at Zillow.
Meanwhile, Zillow has a lot of foreclosed homes with prices in the thousands, like this one:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/11509-Daffodil-Ln-Silver-Spring-MD-20902/37329765_zpid/#{scid=hdp-site-map-list-address}
Zestimate: $428K
For sale: $2400
They can’t all be typos.
Oxy, those are the “for rent” prices.
I thought it might be rental prices, but I filtered out the For Rent, and the listing itself is For Sale. I guess the property is offered for both.
I am seeing homes selling in my neighborhood this summer. They are not selling at peak prices, but are selling for more than I would pay. I don’t know why all the action this summer here in Hillsboro, OR.
Maybe it is different here (sarcasm intended)
For example, a home that was bought last year for ~365,000 just sold for $393,000. (3500 sq. ft, 7,000 sq. ft lot and 3 car garage)
The neighborhood got together for 4th of july fireworks and it was at a house that is now under contract for above asking after multiple bids ($429,000 was the asking price, don’t know what the contract price is). However, it was purchased in 2006 for $546,000 plus the outgoing owner claims he put another 20K into the house. He claims that he had put $250K down.
A short sale wen through on a house that sold for $526,000 in 2006. It sold for $415,000 (3600 sq. ft, 7000 sq. ft lot and 3 car garge).
Another house is up for sale, so we will see how it goes. It is a smaller house.
My wife forced me to buy in December for $365,000 for a similiar home, just not as nice of a backyard (which is fine with me since I no longer have any desire or time for yard maintenance).
There is nothing special with these tract homes and they are as poor of quality as you will find. Maybe due to Intel adding an additional factory here has people thinking they are going to get priced out forever. I honestly do not get it.
What I wouldn’t give for interest rates to get up into the teens.
I’m sorry, I find it hard to associate “tract home” with a $365K selling price.
Meanwhile, in the DC burbs, prices are exactly following Charles Huge Smith’s famous 2006 graph. Prices were stable in 2002, then they shot WAY up to 2004 (this was the steepest slope), then even higher (more gradual slope) to peak in 2006. Now the prices have leveled out around the 2004 plateau.
Example:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/15407-Rowland-Ln-Silver-Spring-MD-20905/37127903_zpid/#{scid=hdp-site-map-list-address}
Zestimate 2002: $282K
Zestimate 2004: $432K
Zestimate 2006: $489K
For sale 2011: $389K
I’m waiting for the 2002 prices.
I indulge in schadenfreude as much as possible.
A few days ago, one of the apartment-busted-up big houses near mine had the water shut off. The landlord didn’t pay the water bill. The tenants were out in front, shrieking about the lack of water with the municipal worker, who tried his best to say he’d be in the area if the landlord paid the water bill, so that he could return ASAP once it was paid. I don’t know how true that is, but at least it allowed him to get on with his job and shut the water off.
Oh, the landlord? Some Australian investment company that I don’t know from Adam. I’m in Ohio. So I just loved all of this. Some Australians bought some nothing property in Bumf*ck, Ohio, laid down only $14K, probably pumped $30K+ more into it, then after it was all done the scrappers immediately busted down the back door and ripped out the copper from the basement. Then it got boarded up while the contractor had the unmitigated gall to chastise me (ME!) for not being observant enough to note the break-in. (I was out of town at the time.) While boarded up, they re-installed the wiring and now they’re back in the sad little business of renting to SSI and Sec8 losers.
I’ve watched this stupid little trend of faceless companies from across the world marching in and buying up our despicable housing stock. This is one of the rustiest areas you’ll ever find around the Great Lakes, barring truly terrible places like Gary, Indiana. Where do these companies think all that rent money is going to come from? And once the Shadow Inventory dumps into the market like a glacier-lake burst, there’s going to be a massive shift in the financial thermocline when it hits the ocean of homes around here. Predictably, the city just can’t tear them down fast enough.
If you ever hear of SSI being “adjusted” due to shortfalls, watch out. There will be real rioting in the Rusty States. And we need it, since SS is broke. And we deserve it, since any fool could have seen this coming.
I hope you’re not schadenfreuding against the tenents.
The lack of running water is a serious public health issue. I find it hard to believe that the city government would shut off the running water right in front of legal tenents, section 8 or no, saying that they need to wait for some guys in Australia to wire money. I’m surprised there isn’t some stopgap regulation where the tenents would be allowed to pay to keep the water on themselves if the LL failed to pay.
Ox….no pay water gets cut off….they have no authority to determine who is a legal tenant that is for the court to decide….
So yes you can always stop them with CASH……
“Valued at $327,000, it went for $266,000 in late 2009. Now, the once-graded land around it is overgrown and the cul-de-sac has become an illegal dumpsite, a tattered mattress in the road and a broken down cabinet in the weeds by the curb.”
Sounds like quite the dream home…
I’ve been getting ziprealty e-mail messages for years for the 90277, 90254 and Phoenix areas. Just noticed in 90277 near Hollywood Riviera 1500 square foot 3 bedroom town homes with attached 2 car garages are in the $530k range but “zestimated” in 2006 in the $900k range. The 90277 zip code was zestimated at $900k in 2006 but is at $700k now. That’s a 23% drop. It would take a 28% price increase to go back to $900k.
Redondo Beach itself is at its lowest zillow estimate value since early 2004. A big earthquake or the upcoming European debt crisis and American austerity will take it to 1999 prices, which would be significantly lower.
What I’m seeing around Boise is a relatively healthy turn of events. During the bubble, much of the new housing was priced above what the locals could afford. Much of this new housing was bought by absentee landlords who dropped minimal-down via HELOCs in places like California.
Suburban housing was maybe sold at $250K-$300K during the bubble. Now there’s been an even $100K haircut - prices are now more in the $150K-$200K range. Lots of foreclosures and REOs, which are now mostly being bought by those locals who sat on their money during the bubble.
Much of the new construction going on today is for farm houses. Farmers who have lived in older modest houses are now building much more spiffy houses for themselves. I believe they are now in the “driver’s seat” with the hungry-for-work building contractors, and again are paying for new construction from money that they sat on during the bubble.
In a development I mentioned last month, a local sod farm dba The Turf Company had several hundred acres planted in sod during the bubble. They had no problem selling it due to all of the new subdivisions. Now their business has crumpled. Last fall I noticed that they were plowing up about half of their sod. Now these acres are all planted in wheat, which is getting close to harvest.
My neighborhood is an urban neighborhood of Columbus OH, 5 minutes from downtown. Really a wonderful place to live - a bit of a hidden gem. A few years ago, developers built up several streets worth of cardboard houses, packed them in like sardines, and tried to sell these 1200 square foot monstrosities for $300,000 plus. Today, there must be for sale signs outside about 1/3 of them. I know someone who’s renting one that was meant for ownership; they put in a washer and drier just to get her to sign as a *renter*. Meanwhile, I rent an apartment down the street, and my total rent probably equals their property taxes.
An acquaintance can’t sell his suburban condo (2+ years on the market), but he just bought a house. He said, so what, he’s not making any more payments on the condo, so he’ll wait for the bank to do something with it.
And a friend of mine fell sucker to the lie that Olde Town East was a prime candidate for “urban rediscovery” or whatever. He proudly suffered through attempted breakins and police chaces. Five years later, someone shot out the windows of his truck overnight and he decided to move. He says he’s hoping to get out half of what he put into it, but he doesn’t care, he wants out NOW.
God, I love renting. A two floor townhouse-style apartment, a lovely pool, free maintenance (just got the AC replaced!), 7 minutes from work and from OSU campus, walk to concerts, hockey, baseball, art galleries, best park in the city, for less $ annually than a REALTOR would swindle away in a used house transaction.