A Normal Housing Market Doesn’t Exist Anymore
The Greenwich Citizen reports from Connecticut. “Everyone loves a bargain, especially on the largest purchase they’ll typically make — real estate. Here are some Greenwich sales recently recorded that may surprise you: Fourty-seven Locust Street, a six bedroom, three bath downtown triplex appraised by the town for tax purposes at more than $1 million was recently purchased from the lender for $411,900 after having been held for over a year by the lender, J.P. Morgan Chase Bank.”
“Another bank-owned property in Riverside was recently sold for $600,000, which equates to 63 percent of its tax-appraised value. The property had been marketed by two different realtors, the first starting at $1,150,000 and the second starting at $674,900.”
“This Week’s Success Quote: ‘A bargain is in its very essence a hostile transaction; do not all men try to abate the price of all they buy? I contend that a bargain even between brethren is a declaration of war.’ — Lord Byron.”
The Cape Cod Times in Massachusetts. “Cape Cod continued along an uneven road toward economic recovery this spring. Condominium sales also suffered this spring, declining by 47 percent as compared to the same period last year, according to The Warren Group’s numbers. Steve Clay, a Falmouth agent with Real Estate Associates who specializes in condo sales, said he has not seen drop-offs that severe. But he acknowledged that the Cape Cod condo market is not thriving.”
“‘Now the price on houses has come down so much that they — particularly younger buyers — are much more inclined to go with a house than a condo,’ he said.”
“The drop-off in sales this year may not reflect a lack of interested buyers, said Deborah Garner, owner of Century 21 Cape Sails in Sandwich. ‘A lot of buyers are out looking at the opportunities that they’re seeing and realizing that the prices today are those of yesteryear and if they’re going to do anything they’d better step up to the plate and do it soon,’ she said.”
The Kennebec Journal in Maine. “If you are behind on your mortgage and in jeopardy of losing your home, you have until the end of the week to apply for federal assistance. The Kennebec Valley Community Action Program is taking pre-application screening worksheets for the Emergency Homeowner Loan Program, a federal program authorized by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, signed into law by President Obama in 2010.”
“KVCAP’s program manager, Casey Bromberg, said 319 households in Maine will leverage $10.3 million in funds — an average of approximately $32,000 — to, hopefully, catch up on languishing mortgage payments. Bromberg said more than 200 applications have come in to KVCAP, but there are only 134 spots to allocate in the program.”
“And foreclosures are a problem in Maine — there have been 1,879 filings here in 2011 and 72 of the houses have been sold, according to Realtytrac. This June, the website says, 51 filings have popped up in Kennebec County alone.”
GlobeSt on New York. “Properties once hindered by the credit crisis–like a stalled market-rate condominium project at 23-10 41st Avenue in Long Island City, Queens–is now getting a major overhaul. Under the Housing Asset Renewal Program (HARP) of the New York City Department of Housing Preservation & Development, local officials announced on Monday that the formerly stalled site will be transformed into Queensboro, a 117-unit apartment complex targeted toward middle-income New York families.”
“The property is the second to be revamped under HARP, a $20 million pilot program administered by the city’s HPD, which focuses on turning newly-completed projects that are vacant and projects that have stalled mid-construction into affordable housing opportunities. AM Holding of NY Corp. acquired the site for redevelopment in September 2005. After spending a total of $9.7 million on the original condo project the project stalled, and was sold to Queensboro Development LLC for $6.4 million in June 2009, says the HPD.”
Crain’s New York Business. “Sales are officially resuming at the Setai Wall Street, a once-troubled financial district condo conversion now under direction of Synergy New York, a marketing firm retained by the project’s developer, Zamir Equities. The remaining units will be sold for roughly 16% less than the original prices set three years ago.”
“Currently, one bedrooms start at $750,000, two bedrooms start at $930,000 and penthouses start at $1.2 million. The average price per square foot is $1,090, but that figure is slightly inflated since many of the remaining units are large penthouses, noted Elie Pariente, a principal at Synergy. Even then, the price is far below the $1,300 per square foot the developer first hoped to get when the project was conceived, pre-Lehman Brothers collapse, said Mr. Pariente.”
“Synergy has 35 to 40 units left to sell, Mr. Pariente says, noting that a few contracts have been sent out this past week. The units had to be re-priced ‘to match today’s market,’ he said.”
The Press of Atlantic City in New Jersey. “Distressed properties have been the big story of the real estate market since the housing bubble collapsed nearly four years ago. With so many houses already owned by banks and many more at risk of foreclosure — 2 million total, according to RealtyTrac — the pressure to sell them promises prices below their true market value.”
“The three-bedroom, one-bath house in sparsely populated western Mays Landing, is an example of what the bargain hunters are seeking. RealtyTrac roughly estimates the house is worth $167,000. Current price? $45,390, said Daniel Boddy, the agent with Century 21 Frick Realtors in Galloway Township who is handling the sale for the bank.”
“Boddy laughed when told the estimated value. He said the bank listed the property at $60,000 when it first hit the market 83 days ago. ‘The bank’s looking to move it and will keep dropping the price until somebody picks it up,’ he said.”
“A specialist in bank-owned properties, Boddy said he doesn’t know whether they are good deals or not. This one seems so, but he’s probably seen better. ‘You can’t beat getting a house for under 50 grand that you can definitely move into,’ he said. ‘But then, I sold one in Atlantic City for 20 grand, and it wasn’t as bad as you would think.’”
“Jean Ball, of Galloway Township, is also a specialist in bank-owned properties, called REOs in the industry for ‘real-estate owned.’ For most of the 17 years she’s worked on bank-owned properties, they were a tiny fraction of the market. The foreclosure crisis has made her a top-seller. Or at least she was until the New Jersey judicial system essentially stopped foreclosure processing — a legal matter in New Jersey and 20 other states — to ensure more thorough legal and court review following the robo-signing controversy at some lenders.”
“‘We were seeing a big increase until the courts stopped them in December,’ Ball said. ‘Once the properties are reviewed by the courts and released by the state, the market will be flooded.’”
“Greg Schenker, an agent with Balsley Losco in Northfield, said the distressed properties have already caused the market to overshoot on price reductions. He said the quality of the houses available as short sales and bank repossessions has gone down, but buyers are nonetheless comparing prices on such distressed properties to regular homes. ‘They don’t compare apples to apples. They figure if it has the same number of beds and baths it should be the same price,’ Schenker said, even though the nondistressed property might have a new heating and air conditioning system, a fireplace and other amenities.”
“‘I didn’t think I’d ever see the day when a three-bedroom rancher would be worth less than $150,000, yet you see people who only want to give you $130,000 for them,’ said Schenker of Folsom.”
The Marlton Sun in New Jersey. “With recent reports stating that promising signs have been seen in the national real estate market, many homeowners looking to sell may be wondering where exactly those signs are as each day of their contract passes without a buyer. According to Mark McKenna of Pat McKenna Realtors, there’s a 99.9 percent chance the problem is the asking price.”
“He said, despite the fact that a real turnaround in the real estate market is at least another year or two away, a home that basically looks good and is priced right should sell in a short period of time. ‘It’s kind of a funny market because if a house is priced right and it looks good, it sells in two weeks,’ McKenna, based in Marlton, said. ‘If it’s not priced right, it sits there for a good six months. Pricing is key out of the gate.’”
“Realtor Dave Lewis also shared the same advice as McKenna, stressing that homes need to be priced at, or even below, market value. Appearance is also a deal maker or breaker. ‘Since there are so many homes on the market, people pick the creampuffs,’ he said. ‘Your home has to be in really good shape.’”
McKenna added that an up-to-date appraisal is key to knowing what a house should be priced at. In his area, McKenna is currently seeing average sale prices in the area of $320,000. He said that a ‘normal’ housing market doesn’t exist anymore, so it’s important not to look too far into a comparison of that amount to previous years.”
“Diane Streichert, CEO of the Burlington/Camden County Association of Realtors, reiterated Lewis’ thoughts. She also stressed that now is not the time to try and sell your home on your own because you need to take the advice of an experienced Realtor. ‘Looking at these statistics, I think we’re going to plod along,’ Streichert said. ‘We’re really at the same place we were last year. We went up in the fall last year, so we have that chance again this year, but then in the fourth quarter it came back down.’”
“‘We’re not going to see what we saw before when everything just skyrocketed up (during the market’s peak),’ she added.”
“The drop-off in sales this year may not reflect a lack of interested buyers, said Deborah Garner, owner of Century 21 Cape Sails in Sandwich. ‘A lot of buyers are out looking at the opportunities that they’re seeing and realizing that the prices today are those of yesteryear and if they’re going to do anything they’d better step up to the plate and do it soon,’ she said.”
To bad the paper wasted ink on this statement.
‘…if they’re going to do anything they’d better step up to the plate and do it soon,’
Wouldn’t it be funner and much more entertaining to get some popcorn and watch others catch themselves falling knife real estate purchases?
‘…if they’re going to do anything they’d better step up to the plate and do it soon,’
buy now or be priced out forerver?
What an idiot. Hey ScumbagRealtor…… your attempt to stoke fear and a sense of urgency doesn’t work. Get a new play book.
~Realtors Are Liars®
“This Week’s Success Quote: ‘A bargain is in its very essence a hostile transaction; do not all men try to abate the price of all they buy? I contend that a bargain even between brethren is a declaration of war.’ — Lord Byron.”
‘A bubble price supported by fraud at all levels is in its very essence a hostile transaction; do not all men and government try to fraudulently inflate the price of all they sell? I contend that a bubble price even between brethren is a declaration of war.’ — CPT 2banana”
“KVCAP’s program manager, Casey Bromberg, said 319 households in Maine will leverage $10.3 million in funds — an average of approximately $32,000 — to, hopefully, catch up on languishing mortgage payments. Bromberg said more than 200 applications have come in to KVCAP, but there are only 134 spots to allocate in the program.”
319 people hit the government lotto. The rest of you (including renters) can move along…
Bingo
Anecdotally, something that we’re seeing now is many buyers who are limited by lack of a downpayment and not ability to make the mortgage payment. Now before anybody jumps on me, I’m NOT saying that this is a bad thing. But if you can only scrape together 10k for a downpayment, you’re going to be very limited in the price you can pay, even if you have no real difficulty making the payments on a 30yr FRM at current interest rates.
I’d like to be an astronaut but they tell me I’m not qualified. Bastards!
Do you speak Russian?
> I’d like to be an astronaut but they tell me I’m not qualified. Bastards!
I’d like to be an porn star but they tell me I’m not qualified. Bastards!
“Diane Streichert, CEO of the Burlington/Camden County Association of Realtors, reiterated Lewis’ thoughts. She also stressed that now is not the time to try and sell your home on your own because you need to take the advice of an experienced Realtor.”
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I continue to be amazed at why statements like that are not immediately dismissed as grossly self-serving. Diane Streichert is not the oracle. If you didn’t use her, you would save the 6% commission.
I thought of an interesting statistic. What if we could see which UHS lead their markets in sales that then became foreclosures?
What a liar. If it were legal to sell by Dutch Auction w/o a UHS, I am sure most people with an IQ north of 100 could manage it, and save themselves the 6% commission. Simply start with the Zillow price and reduce by 1% each week until it sells — easy as pie!
“If it were legal to sell by Dutch Auction w/o a UHS”
What do you mean, PB—it is legal to sell on your own by any means that you wish: FSBO listings are one example. There is no reason you can’t do a FSBO Dutch Auction; arguably that is what price reductions are all about.
People don’t do it because they can’t find a large enough pool of potential buyers to make such a Dutch Auction discover a price that they are happy with. Too many buyers pay attention only to the MLS.
“…after having been held for over a year by the lender, J.P. Morgan Chase Bank.”
Please explain to this Rube why it is not a violation of the Sherman Antitrust Act for monopolistic Wall Street Megabanks to hold houses off the market for over a year? This seems to me like a market-distorting abuse of market power by the banksters.
This seems to me like a market-distorting abuse of market power by the banksters ??
Nope….By the Fed…They have given them Carte Blanch to run their balance sheet this way…My fear is that its so bad that if the Fed enforced standard practice that the whole friggen system would melt down…
It is only a violation of Sherman if they are actively planning it with the other banks. If they are just doing it because they know that even an agressive program to sell their own holdings would hurt the price of the rest of their holdings there is no anti-trust issue at all. Warning - I’m no anti-trust expert so there could be other hurdles that I don’t even know about.
Oh, and proving the collusion is fairly hard.
“It is only a violation of Sherman if they are actively planning it with the other banks.”
So if, for instance, there were only two banks, and one of them had a 99% market share, then that 99% market share bank could unilaterally act to withhold supply, so long as it never colluded with the 1% bank?
If you disagree with the above, then what is the threshold market share at which a given bank has sufficient market share (and hence market power) to be illegally acting as a monopolist, regardless of whether it colludes with other monopolists?
‘It’s kind of a funny market because if a house is priced right and it looks good, it sells in two weeks,’ McKenna, based in Marlton, said. ‘If it’s not priced right, it sits there for a good six months. Pricing is key out of the gate.’
It’s ALWAYS this way. My wife and I have sold two homes and a few used cars over the years, each time within the span of one week, by pricing at or below market.
The only difference between now and 2006 with respect to pricing is that market values have plummeted to a level where many would-be sellers are either unwilling or unable to list their homes at a price where they will sell. For instance, every day now on my daily commute, I hear a radio advertisement which openly suggests that fifty percent-or-so of San Diego homes are underwater. If your home were $200K underwater, would you be willing and able to price it to market and bring $200K to the closing table? I doubt it…
“…the pressure to sell them promises prices below their true market value.”
What a dumb statement.
“Boddy laughed when told the estimated value. He said the bank listed the property at $60,000 when it first hit the market 83 days ago. ‘The bank’s looking to move it and will keep dropping the price until somebody picks it up,’ he said.”
Dutch Auction is an effective revelation mechanism to discover market value after prices have collapsed.
“McKenna added that an up-to-date appraisal is key to knowing what a house should be priced at. In his area, McKenna is currently seeing average sale prices in the area of $320,000. He said that a ‘normal’ housing market doesn’t exist anymore, so it’s important not to look too far into a comparison of that amount to previous years.”
No appraisal is necessary if you are willing to sell by Dutch Auction. Simply start your listing at your wishing price, then drop the price by, say, 1% each week until it sells. Before long, a buyer is certain to snap it up — no matter what appraisers say it is worth.
‘Once the properties are reviewed by the courts and released by the state, the market will be flooded.’
A property flood would go far to restoring affordability.
That would be interesting. In bubble areas like Southern California, I still see room for substantial (30 - 50%) drops if the foreclosures were moved quickly to market.
Question about “normal” housing markets:
My understanding is that, in one of those so-called normal single-family residential markets, 10-20% of the buyers are investors seeking houses to rent out. Another 10-20% are first-time homebuyers. Which leaves the rest of the market 60-80% to the move-up buyers.
Are my figures more-or-less correct?
I suppose a small percentage would be “move-down” or “down-sizing”, and there would be a another small percentage of people moving into the area from elsewhere.
Don’t let those $500K+ price tags in Coastal Cali fool you — there apparently has never been a better time to buy.
Time to Buy: Housing Recovery Is Under Way
July 21, 2011
Housing affordability is at its best level in 30 years, according to Ken Rosen of U.C. Berkeley’s Fisher Center for Real Estate, who says now is the time to buy and that mortgage rates will be much higher in five years. Stacey Delo reports. Image courtesy of Getty Images.
If mortgage rates are much higher in 5 years, then it means treasuries will be much higher. Much higher treasury rates will hasten our spiral into national insolvancy.
So, if what Ken says is true, then do you really want to be in debt to your house with the economy crumbling down around you?
No. When interest rates go up, it will still be in the early stages of housing price recovery (to what people can afford).
I heard a Floridian (I think) call in to Dave Ramsey’s radio show recently. She had a $140k mortgage on a house now worth around $90k (she thought), but she’d just gotten an offer out of the blue from her mortgage holder, offering to let her off for $41k if she pays up now. It’s possible that it might have been a scammer, rather than the actual bank, but I’ve started to hear similar stories of banks going proactive and doing things like preemptively offering modifications, so it’s possible that the offer the Floridian got was on the up and up.
That sort of thing could really lubricate the resale market, since that homeowner can now sell that house at a very reasonable low price, and she won’t wring her hands over it. If there’s much of this, it will speed things up.
Closer to home in our part of Central Texas, there’s a well-preserved early 20th century neighborhood near downtown that I watch. Top dollar in that neighborhood is about $100 per square foot, whereas in more middle class parts of town, the price per square foot is more like $50. Anyway, one of the most dramatic examples I’ve seen in that neighborhood is a foreclosure. I may have mentioned the house here before. It’s a 1950s home, 2700 sq. ft., and it was for sale for between $272k and $245k for THREE years with six realtors before going into foreclosure. The first post-foreclosure price was around $200k, but as it sits, the bank has been slicing steadily away at the price until as of today, it’s $165k, i.e. $60 per square foot. All the other homes of similar size and value on that street have had to fall in line with that kind of pricing, and they still haven’t sold and the summer is almost over. I’m expecting a couple more foreclosures there before too long.
This house-watching is a very slow hobby, but I think this is going to be a very interesting year (coincidentally, we’ve got to move by the late spring).
It’s possible that it might have been a scammer, rather than the actual bank, but I’ve started to hear similar stories of banks going proactive and doing things like preemptively offering modifications, so it’s possible that the offer the Floridian got was on the up and up.
I’d be tempted to ask for the offer in writing. And then I’d get my attorney on the phone and give him a heads-up. Because he’s probably already aware that the whole thing’s a scam.
It is Florida, after all, so a scam is the most likely explanation.
But the unsolicited loan modifications are happening for real.
i’ve owned my home for 14yrs…about 100K underwater( liberated my equity to pay cash for another property)…money in the bank /802fico. unsolicited wfc modification…rate lowered from 6% to 5%, saving me about $250/mo. i downsized, renting a 1bd condo on the golf course while renting my house to GOOD tenants. my monthly profit…$250.