The Housing Bubble

The Amarillo Globe News reports from Texas. “Last year, total closed homes sales in the Amarillo-area market hit their lowest mark since 2002, according to Jeffers’ analysis of MLS data from the Amarillo Association of Realtors. Homebuyer tax credit incentives meant transactions most occurred in the first four months of 2010, then sales dropped through a lackluster fourth quarter. Homes may not be providing the return on investment that some once saw them as, when continual value increases occurred – skyrocketing in some markets to create the housing bubble, said Prudential Ada Broker Greg Glenn.”

“‘It’s another flat year,’ Glenn said. ‘Buy a home today, it’s worth that (what was paid) a year from now. Used to be you wanted a home for shelter, you wanted it for your family to live in. You didn’t buy it for an investment. But there for a little while, you got both shelter and an investment.’”

The Abilene Reporter News. “Foreclosures in Taylor County totaled 149 through June, down from 168 through June of last year, according to data released by the Taylor County Central Appraisal District. ‘I think it is probably having to do with a national trend that we’re seeing of the companies, or the banks and financial institutions, who are slowing down their repossession rate, as much as it is anything,’ said Richard Petree, the district’s chief appraiser.”

“‘The most positive spin that one can give on it is the housing market in Texas and in Abilene has gone through whatever slump it’s going to go through,’ said Jim Gaines, a research economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. But he acknowledged the likelihood that the decline is related to choices made by lenders. ‘The worry is that there’s a backlog’ of foreclosures yet to be filed, Gaines said.”

The San Antonio Business Journal. “Over the first six months of 2011, foreclosure notices were filed on 4,933 homes in the greater San Antonio area, according to RealtyTrac. That figure marks a 21 percent decline from the number of postings recorded for the first six months of 2010. Between the reports by Texas-based Foreclosure Listing Service Inc and RealtyTrac, it would appear that the foreclosure cloud that had been looming over the San Antonio area is slowly dissolving. Maybe not.”

“In fact, the morass that is the country’s foreclosure processing system may be prolonging the inevitable. ‘It is my belief that this foreclosure rodeo is far from over,’ noted George Roddy Sr., president of FLS, earlier this month.”

The San Antonio Express News. “According to housing research company Metrostudy, San Antonio builders started 1,952 single-family homes during the second quarter, down 17 percent from the same period last year. They also sold 22 percent fewer homes, closing 1,688 deals. ‘We expect that the numbers will begin to improve slightly,’ said Jack Inselmann, vice president of Metrostudy’s U.S. Central Division. ‘We have high hope and tempered enthusiasm. I don’t think it’s going to get any worse,’ Inselmann said.”

“New-home prices have remained stable because builders have avoided overbuilding for the past few years. There were just 1,348 finished, vacant homes on the ground at the end of the second quarter, the lowest level since 2004, according to Metrostudy. Overall housing inventory, including model homes, those under construction and finished vacant homes, was up slightly from the first quarter to 3,838 homes.”

The Austin American Statesman. “Sales of existing homes in Central Texas climbed 9 percent in June, while the median price held steady at $205,000. But even with the improved numbers, local experts say the housing market still faces challenges and won’t fully rebound until consumers regain confidence and entry-level buyers have an easier time obtaining mortgages.”

“Eldon Rude, director of the Austin division of Metrostudy, which tracks the market, said one of the biggest is that tougher lending standards have made it harder for first-time buyers to obtain mortgages. He noted that many of the price categories under $200,000 saw double-digit price declines through the first half of the year.”

“‘The market will eventually see a surge in activity, if and when the first-time buyer can re-enter the market,’ Rude said.”

The Houston Chronicle. “The thousands of layoffs associated with the end of NASA’s space shuttle program are putting added pressure on an already stressed housing market. Homes in the Clear Lake area have been staying on the market longer and more are going up for sale, according to people who live in the area and real estate agents who work there.”

“Keeping former space workers in Houston helps mitigate the fallout to the region’s housing market, which has already been tested by the economic downturn.

Home buying across greater Houston has been struggling as some consumers can’t qualify for mortgages under stricter lending standards and others are too afraid to buy because of economic uncertainty. Areawide, single-family home sales were down 5.4 percent for the first half of the year, according to data from the Houston Association of Realtors.”

“Lauran Johnson, a NASA worker in the International Space Station program, said she’s seen a lot of homes for sale in her neighborhood, South Shore Harbor, but she’s not sure if it’s tied to the layoffs. Some have started to sell recently, but she thinks it may be because sellers are dropping their prices.”

“Veronica Reyes directs the Aerospace Transition Center, a facility set up to help the thousands of aerospace workers find new jobs. Reyes said one job seeker put her house up for sale because she was afraid she’d lose it and another asked for help assessing her mortgage. Generally, though, people who come through the center haven’t expressed many concerns over their homes.”

“‘The impact hasn’t hit the community yet on real estate,’ she said. ‘They hang in there awhile before that happens.’”

The Monitor. “Declining property tax revenues coupled with rising costs may force the Hidalgo County government to cut back on services, slash labor expenditures and reduce funding to nonprofit agencies. Rolando Garza, the chief appraiser for the Hidalgo County appraisal district, said county property values are still struggling to rebound from a downturn in the economy and housing market.”

“A $1 billion drop in the overall tax roll that local governments levy against is largely to blame for the decline in property tax collections. Hidalgo County commissioners used to deal with property value increases that generated $10 million to $12 million a year in new revenue.”

“Garza said the county’s foreclosure problem continues to depress residential market values, but he said there are signs that the commercial market is picking up with a promise for next year. ‘We’re hoping to see that trend go back up because we’re starting to see a little bit of an increase in development,’ Garza said. ‘We have to kind of wait and see what the market really bears.’”

From KFOX El Paso. “The El Paso Collaborative, working together with Project Vida, Habitat for Humanity and Project Ayuda applied and were chosen to run the local the Neighborhood Stabilization Program through a $1.1 million federal grant. Eddie Gonzales, a construction specialist for The El Paso Collaborative, told KFOX14, ‘We get to stabilize neighborhoods that have been destabilized by foreclosure crisis.’”

“The goal of the project is to buy 125 homes through out the city. The first home is in Northeast El Paso. Rosa Watts, who lives a house away from it, said the home has been vacant from almost a year. Crews told KFOX14 the damage to the Northeast home totaled more than $20,000 dollars. they had to repaint all of the walls and completely redo the roof along with other repairs.”

“Watts said, ‘It’s going to be great because it’s going to look like were living in a nice neighborhood.’”

The Brownsville Herald. “Some residents of Modern Venice say they are still trying to get answers about how a project to complete the western section of the area also known as ‘The Fingers’ will affect those who already own homes in the resort community. Paula Russ and husband Dal Russ were in the construction business until the economic downturn stopped most building projects, she said. The Russes, who own three lots in Modern Venice, said they were not able to get answers about why the city hired Raybec, a company that owns 25 undeveloped lots in the area, as consultants.”

“Keith Cathey, a computer technician who owns property in Modern Venice, said people who own undeveloped lots that cost them $20,000 or $25,000 will hold on to their lots until the public improvement district builds levees, then will sell their lots for about $120,000 and walk away with a handsome profit.”

“‘Why would any business person not put them up for sale, if you could double your money?’ he asked. ‘That’s what I see.’”

“But if Raybec is unable to sell the lots as planned, the cost of building sea walls and other expenses the public improvement district will run up will be assessed to existing properties as well as empty lots, Cathey said. ‘It’s my honest opinion that it will decrease property values on the east side and people will be upside down on their loans,’ he said, meaning their mortgages will be more than their properties could be sold for.”

“When Raybec first became involved in the project in 2005, ‘I could see the potential for success,” Cathey said. ‘This is not the same market.’”