August 16, 2011

Bits Bucket for August 16, 2011

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




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Comment by wmbz
2011-08-16 04:06:00

On mortgage rates, Obama wants proposal for how government can keep big role. - The Washington Post

President Obama has directed a small team of advisers to develop a proposal that would keep the government playing a major role in the nation’s mortgage market, extending a federal loan subsidy for most home buyers, according to people familiar with the matter.

The decision follows the advice of his senior economic and housing advisers, who favor maintaining the government’s role as an insurer of mortgages for most borrowers. The approach could even preserve Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage finance giants owned by the government, although under different names and with significant new constraints, said people knowledgeable about the discussions.

A decision to preserve a major government role would mark a big milestone in the effort to craft a new housing policy from the wreckage of the mortgage meltdown and could mean a larger part for Fannie and Freddie than administration officials had signaled.

In a statement, the White House said it is premature to say that senior officials have agreed on any of the three main options outlined earlier this year in an administration white paper on reforming the housing finance system.

“It is simply false that there has been a decision to move forward with any particular option,” said Matt Vogel, a White House spokesman. “All three options remain under active consideration and we are deepening our analysis around how each would potentially be implemented. No recommendation has been made to the president by his economic advisers.”

Comment by michael
2011-08-16 05:25:42

status quo.

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2011-08-16 06:24:09

Exactly. When will the hope ‘n change dupes admit they ended up voting for more of the same?

 
 
Comment by rms
2011-08-16 06:39:29

“The decision follows the advice of his senior economic and housing advisers, who favor maintaining the government’s role as an insurer of mortgages for most borrowers.”

Advice from “suits” who don’t want to lose their fake jobs to selling turquoise jewelry from a dusty corner lot.

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2011-08-16 07:05:43

Obama’s senior advisors, and his MSM cheerleaders, can always be counted upon to advocate a statist, corporatist approach that sees the Nanny State extending its control and coersion into every aspect of social and economic life. Just as McSame would have done if he and Sarah Palin were in the White House.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 06:46:25

So Obama wants a proposal on insuring mortgages for most people. Just the other day Obama asked for a proposal on unloading F&F inventory onto investors to rent (whether this is logistically possible or not). That’s two out of his original three menu options for F&F, right? I’m sure there’s a proposal for the middle ground option in the works. So the Washing Post shouldn’t jump to conclusions about what the Obama Admin “wants.”

Also I think this phrase is key: “different names and with significant new constraints.” I wonder if those contraints have anything to do with the proposed Rule for Credit Risk Retention (comments closed). There is a bipartisan support in Congress* for F&F to not be exempt — that is, Congress wants F&F to adhere to the Qualified Residential Mortgage requirements. Under QRM, F&F could only buy 100% of a mortgage if it was 20% down and 28% rule.

If F&F is “constrained” by 20% down and 28% rule or similar, then I wouldn’t worry about F&F being big government. There just wouldn’t be enough qualfied takers to make it big. Actually, 20% down 28% rule is a VERY good mortgage, good enough that F&F would have to compete on the secondary market to buy them.

If I were to make a guess, a good middle ground would be to liquidate the existing F&F inventory. Then, start up a new F&F, only this time NO “private” entity BS,** and with constraints like QRM.

—————
*”Rep. Scott Garrett (R., N.J.) has introduced the “GSE Credit Risk Equitable Treatment Act,” which is intended to
“ensure mortgages held or securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and asset-backed securities issued by such
enterprises are treated similarly as other mortgages and asset-backed securities for purposes of the credit risk retention
requirements.” The bill, if enacted, would override any final rules exempting the GSEs from the risk retention
requirements. Rep. Barney Frank (D., Mass.), the ranking Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, has
publicly stated that he favors passage of similar legislation.”
http://www.bingham.com/Media.aspx?MediaId=12273

** F&F wouldn’t have gotten into this mess if they hadn’t been a private entity.

Comment by polly
2011-08-16 08:20:41

There is the possibility that they consider a significant government role to be the only way to make sure that the general underwriting standards for mortgages go to historical averages - vicinity of a 20% downpayment, vicinity of 28% gross income on the PITI with additional max put on payments of all debt service, etc.

With no government involvement, you could get much, much harder requirements (50% downpayments, PITI no more than 20% of gross) or bubble-era no-doc/can you fog a mirror requirements (because banks and bond buyers would assume another bailout).

I’d rather not see it, but I can understand why they at least want to talk about it.

 
 
Comment by Darrell_in_phoenix
2011-08-16 06:47:11

How about we plug trade imbalances, get more jobs with better wages for Americans?

Stop attacking the symptoms, and start attacking the root problem.

Oh, sorry. That is bad for corporate profits. My bad.

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2011-08-16 07:06:44

You, sir, are borderline seditious.

 
Comment by pdmseatac
2011-08-16 11:34:04

” Comment by Darrell_in_phoenix
2011-08-16 06:47:11

How about we plug trade imbalances, get more jobs with better wages for Americans?

Stop attacking the symptoms, and start attacking the root problem.”

For the last five years I have been reading that the root problem is falling or stagnant housing prices. If only the government would do something to get house prices rising at the normal 10% - 20% annual appreciation rates, all our problems would evaporate instantly.

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2011-08-16 11:49:34

Bwah, hah, hah.

Make houses more unaffordable, so people can borrow even more money that their wages are insufficient to pay back, to fuel larger international and domestic trade imbalances, so the people in the receiving end of those trade imbalances can have even more money that will evaporate into the thin air from which is was borrowed, so that the lack in faith in money will be even more trashed, and the depression that follws will be even deeper and longer.

Yep. House prices not climbing is definately the root cause of our troubles. If we could just get house prices increasing again, then everything would be okay for just a little bit longer, until it all collapses into a stinking pile of rubble.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 07:15:28

Do any rival candidates to Obama (or should I say, Geithner) have any better ideas on housing? Because these guys seem determined to keep housing unaffordably priced forever, through subsidizing the demand side.

Comment by Happy2bHeard
2011-08-16 09:49:30

We might have an interesting weekend topic around questions we’d like to ask all of the candidates.

 
Comment by michael
2011-08-16 14:29:11

i didn’t watch the entire debate…maybe it was covered more in the “foreign policy” section (which I missed)…but romney was the only one i heard mention the trade deficit.

it was not his main point…just in his list of problems. i remember it because i was surprised that he brought it up first.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 07:26:13

“Obama wants proposal for how government can keep big role”

How soon is TTT going to roll out his new proposal?

Comment by rms
2011-08-16 11:59:47

+1 Can’t see the strings, but you know they’re there.

 
 
Comment by Al
2011-08-16 08:14:40

“President Obama has directed a small team of advisers to develop a proposal that would keep the government playing a major role in the nation’s mortgage market…”

Why keep doing it half-arsed. Here’s my proposal, which I think is likely to receive approval given what we’ve been seeing over the last few decades. It’s a 3 point plan.

1) Government seizes all houses that are in foreclosure, and pays full sticker price to clear the mortgage.
2) Government finds private partners to manage the houses. Only companies that are large enough to manage at least 100,000 houses need apply.
3) The private partner sets the rent according to mark to model, giving the government its ‘fair share’.

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 21:04:51

4) Partners are all large Wall Street investment banks which kick back campaign contributions towards the inner Beltway vicinity.

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-16 04:08:34

Fed Says Banks Eased Lending Standards in Second Quarter Amid Competition (Bloomberg)

Banks loosened credit standards on most types of loans in the second quarter, with commercial and industrial lenders citing “aggressive competition” as a reason for the easier terms, according to a Federal Reserve survey.

“Banks continued to ease lending standards and most terms on all major types of loans other than loans secured by real estate over the past three months,” the central bank said today in its quarterly survey of senior loan officers.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his policy-making colleagues pledged on Aug. 9 to hold the main interest rate at a record low near zero at least until mid-2013, saying economic growth is “considerably slower” than anticipated.

“We’re going to see credit standards stay about the same in the next few months given the increased volatility in financial markets and increased uncertainty about where the economy is heading,” said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Most banks expect the pace of mortgage lending to stay about the same through the rest of this year, according to the Fed survey. Lackluster demand from creditworthy borrowers and uncertainties about the outlook for house prices and the overall economy were the main reasons, according to the central bank.

Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 06:23:21

other than loans secured by real estate

Good, then it won’t prop up house prices.

Federal hiring is mostly frozen, federal contracting is being cut, interest rates stay low (thanks Fed Reserve!), F&F release a little inventory, and prices fall somewhat. Even if this isn’t the bottom, it might be a sweet spot.

Comment by Blue Skye
2011-08-16 06:45:30

I respect your optomism Oxy, but consider that some larger than expected changes could be in the cards. Biggest expansion of credit, and FedGov ever has yet to “correct”.

 
 
Comment by Darrell_in_phoenix
2011-08-16 06:48:39

The problem is that there is too much debt. The solution is more debt? Really?!

Comment by iftheshoefits
2011-08-16 07:01:04

Well, if you want the economy to “appear” to be growing, into the next election cycle, anyway.

That’s really all they’ve got, isn’t it?

Comment by carlos4
2011-08-16 09:05:19

Here in Northern Ohio the “recovery” is sliding back into obvious recession. From my vantage point (metals servicing industrie) orders are drying up and/or going to China; that should fit nicely int the black bus tour plans. Those green, shovel ready jobs didnt seem to do the trick. Plenty of 9 buck an hour jobs, but, it takes two or more for people who want to stay off the dole. Fewer and fewer people making enuff to even qualify for one of those REO mansions; Section 8 here we come to a neighborhood near you!

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Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2011-08-16 11:53:37

Wait until congress cuts fed government spending and raises taxes. Signs of recession will become full blown economic collapse.

We can not spend out way out, but we also can’t cut our way out.

It is the trade imbalances stupid.

 
Comment by drumminj
2011-08-16 15:24:14

shovel ready jobs didnt seem to do the trick.

I have often wondered how much of a hit to productivity we took as a result of these jobs. Think of all the extra congestion, travel time, etc, due to the construction. At least here in Seattle I think many people saw their commutes become 1/3 longer due to it. This means more gas consumed, more time spent in car (and not in other pursuits, time with family, etc).

 
 
 
 
Comment by redrum
2011-08-16 08:01:32

“Banks loosened credit standards on most types of loans in the second quarter, with commercial and industrial lenders citing “aggressive competition” as a reason for the easier terms”

If you’re competing for good customers, you don’t lower your standards, you lower the price (origination fees, interest rate, etc.). If I’m a credit worthy customer, lowering your loan standards does nothing to make your loan look better to me than your competition.

I suspect that this “competition” is just another risk taking, yield chasing race- to see who can have the best looking quarterly numbers and pay the best bonuses. As we’ve seen before, it is likely to come back and bite them.

Comment by Al
2011-08-16 08:22:56

Agreed. I couldn’t help but think that nothing was learned from the last emergency.

Comment by Al
2011-08-16 08:26:32

This suggests that maybe, just maybe, banks can’t be trusted to set their own lending standards. It will always end up as a race to the bottom, in this case without even waiting for the rubble to be cleared from the last time.

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Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 08:52:12

“banks can’t be trusted to set their own lending standards. ”

In the public comments posted to the Credit Risk Retention (QRM) proposed rule, the bankers and re-al-TORS were railing that the government shouldn’t set lending standards, because the banks could tailor the lending to the situation. The equivalent of “don’t tell us how to run our business.”

Actually the proposed rule only requires that a bank hold 5% of the loan if it’s risky. It was pretty funny reading the banks whine. Were they really that dependent on the secondary market? Is that 5% really going to “strangle” and “choke” them?

I suspect that the Agencies proposing the rule won’t be fooled this time.

 
Comment by polly
2011-08-16 09:08:34

“Is that 5% really going to “strangle” and “choke” them?”

Well, think about it. Imagine you have $1000 of capital. If you make loans and have to retain 5% of the deal, then you can’t make more than $20,000 worth of loans without raising more capital - finding someone who is willing to take some risk.

If you can sell 100% of the deal, then you can make an infinite amount of loans as long as you can find a borrower willing to sign the papers and a buyer for the loans. Infinite.

And there is a significant borrower supply constraint on the qualified loans, so the other ones are much more appealing.

 
Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 12:13:58

Say you have $5K in capital. You make a $100K non-QRM loan, you have to retain 5% ie $5K. Isn’t that the equiavalent of requiring a 1:1 (100%) reserves?

 
Comment by polly
2011-08-16 12:52:56

Most banks want to make their money on the origination fees. If they can’t keep reusing the capital over and over again (without retaining 5%) they will have to raise more capital or stop lending.

I have my secondary savings account at a privately owned small bank that does not sell its loans, but they are not easy to find.

 
Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 13:21:48

“Most banks want to make their money on the origination fees. If they can’t keep reusing the capital over and over again (without retaining 5%) they will have to raise more capital or stop lending. ”

Cry me a river.

 
 
 
Comment by liz pendens
2011-08-16 10:17:29

What’s the worst thing that can happen if you are the lenders?

A bailout?

TBTF gives you ballz.

 
Comment by Max Power
2011-08-16 10:24:48

I can speak to small business lending (outside of the SBA) and losses on vintages originated since 2009 are extremely low. Too low based on where they’re priced. Banks view that as leaving money on the table. Their response is to continue to open up credit until they get to the loss rates they expect and are priced for. Based on the current loss rates and interest rates being charged, there is more profitable business out there than is currently being approved. That is why standards are loosened. At least in this case.

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-16 04:10:05

Ahead of the Bell: Housing starts
Builders likely broke ground on fewer homes in July but pace is half healthy level
The Associated Press, August 16, 2011

Builders likely broke ground on fewer homes in July, as early summer gains in apartment and single-family home construction levels off.

Economists forecast that builders began work last month on a seasonally adjusted 600,000 homes per year, according to a FactSet survey. That would be a 4.6 percent decrease from the previous month’s 629,000-home-per-year pace.

The Commerce Department releases the report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Tuesday.

The building pace is roughly half the 1.2 million homes a year that economists say must be built to sustain a healthy housing market.

If the forecast holds true, builders would be roughly 26 percent ahead of the 477,000-per-year pace from April 2009 — the lowest point on records dating back to 1959. But they would be down roughly 74 percent from their peak of nearly 2.3 million in January 2006.

Building permits, a gauge of future construction, rose last month to the highest level since December. But apartment and condominium construction accounted for a large portion of that increase.

Cash-strapped builders are struggling to compete with deeply discounted foreclosures and short sales, when lenders allow borrowers to sell homes for less than what is owed on their mortgages.

New-home sales fell in June to a seasonally adjusted pace of 312,000 homes per year, less than half the 700,000 per year that economists would consider healthy.

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2011-08-16 05:50:05

There are now probably five or six houses under construction in our community where in 2009 there were zero new starts. These are build-to-order and not spec homes. But given the relatively large inventory of discounted resales, short sales and some remaining failed flip foreclosures, I can’t imagine why someone would pay more for a new house. I guess the buyers gotta have that new house smell. :-)

Comment by Awaiting
2011-08-16 06:28:46

Bill
You get everything you want, all new, wrapped in the floor plan you want. I get it. I don’t know if I have the patience, but after shopping for a resale home, I understand the decision matrixs.

The deferred maintenance issues on a resale home are costly and time consuming. Most of what we’ve seen in resales are no bargain. We like mature trees, and that keeps us in the game. (So Ca)

 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-16 06:30:18

Because new construction is cheaper than resales.

Comment by scdave
2011-08-16 07:25:59

Because new construction is cheaper than resales ??

Where ??

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Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-16 07:53:32

Anywhere where resale is priced in excess of $50-$60/square foot.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-16 08:56:02

@scdave,

The only place we are seeing new construction in CA is where a builder can buy existing developed land for less than the cost of development (meaning land costs less than $0). When you add in land at something greater than $0, development costs, permitting costs, soft costs, hard costs, etc., builders have a hard time competing.

If they didn’t have a hard time competing, they would be building like crazy. Because as we both know, in and around the Bay Area, the existing housing stock just isn’t that good, anything new that is price competitive would sell very quickly.

 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-16 09:28:11

Except in Liar Country of course.

 
Comment by scdave
2011-08-16 09:47:54

Anywhere where resale is priced in excess of $50-$60/square foot ??

You are kidding right because if you are not you don’t have a clue of what your talking about……..

 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-16 09:51:19

Is that so… Demonstrate your construction contracting for us and we shall see.

 
Comment by scdave
2011-08-16 09:53:35

builders have a hard time competing ??

If you look at what is getting built in our area you will see that it is located in a strong market, i.e. Mt. View/Cupertino…That’s because many people (particularly many of the eastern immigrants) want new…

 
Comment by scdave
2011-08-16 10:00:55

Is that so… Demonstrate your construction contracting for us and we shall see ??

And where over the past 38 years would you like me to start ??

 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-16 10:07:36

Anytime my friend.

-What application are you using for estimating
-What divisions are you self-performing
-Are you self-performing site/civil
-What are you paying for concrete?

 
Comment by scdave
2011-08-16 10:34:41

What application are you using for estimating
-What divisions are you self-performing
-Are you self-performing site/civil
-What are you paying for concrete?

#1….A HP 12-C, a pencil & paper

#2….All

#3….Site yes…Civil No

#4….Last time about $105. per yard

Was that my test ??

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-16 10:46:02

@scdave

We’ve been over this with RAL before, save your energy. He doesn’t understand the cost of doing business in CA (land, difficulty of entitlements, permitting costs, etc.). There is a disconnect between CA and wherever he is used to building.

I have no doubt that he has experience. I just don’t think that experience is in California (and certainly not in Silicon Valley). You’ll be talking past one another when you discuss land values and permitting costs, etc.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-16 10:51:43

@scdave,

Builders do have a hard time competing in most inland markets in CA. Silicon Valley is a unique area, with older housing stock, and land constraints. The biggest problem in Silicon Valley is getting the land and entitlements at prices that allow construction of anything other than very expensive homes.

In other parts of CA, where there was significantly more recent housing growth, builders need to be competing with homes that are <10 years old, in relatively good shape, and priced below what is costs to build new. In those places, they cannot compete unless they were able to buy finished lots for less than the costs to build the lots.

 
Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 10:56:40

SCdave, what kind of housing are you building? I can’t imagine that my dream house (mild Tudor elevation, craftsman-quality interior ~1200 sq ft + basement) could be built for under $100K.

 
Comment by scdave
2011-08-16 11:06:27

hard time competing in most inland markets in CA. Silicon Valley is a unique area ??

I agree but they still are building in the inland empire albeit at a very slow pace…I do a lot of traveling in the central valley and southern Oregon…Take Manteca for example… Foreclosures everywhere but if you go out French Camp Road you will see some single family starts…One of the builders selling points are you know who your neighbor is going to be..Or put another way, You know who your neighbor “will not” be…They also use the “gated” community as a marketing tool in locations like this…

 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-16 11:28:37

And there’s your answer why you’re out of business… A calculator? Tell us how this calculator estimates production rates for unknowns? How do you even bid work? We build light commercial for $90/sq and make money doing it. We build heavy municipal for $500 a square and that’s bidding $1000/yard a concrete. And you can’t build a damn wooden shack for $60??

It’s no mystery why you can’t make any money.

 
Comment by scdave
2011-08-16 11:52:41

(mild Tudor elevation, craftsman-quality interior ~1200 sq ft + basement) could be built for under $100K ??

Oxide…Mild Tudor elevation is not very expensive as long as you don’t get exotic…Craftsman quality interior paint grade is not to bad either…Stain Grade and the cost probably tripled…As far as the basement, I know in the midwest its common..But it is in Silicon Valley (Seismic)…And No, you will not be able to build that for under $100k…

 
Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 12:23:29

Sorry SC dave, I thought you were the one advocating the $50-60 sq ft. I don’t know what RAL is building…

As for the house, I was thinking more like L-shape one-story 3/2 with one vaulted ceiling living room, peninsula kitchen, nice but no fancy granite no SS. Wall of built-ins instead of cabinets. Craftman meaning high-qual wood flooring, window trim and some low built-ins for books etc. Eastern US. That would easily cost $150K not including land.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-16 12:43:31

@scdave-

Yes, we have noticed the same thing in Manteca being one of the early locations to restart. We’ve heard of paper lots trading there for around $20k per. We are not yet seeing much dirt being pushed around generally, as most of what we understand is being built is on existing finished lots.

That said, some of the projects where there is standing inventory are selling well for exactly the reason you cite, that people want new, not existing.

It will be interesting to see when the next wave of building starts in CA, but I suspect that it will be a combination of 1) prices starting to rise; and 2) the quality of existing inventory being so different than “new” that builders can charge the premium that they see as necessary.

 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-16 13:01:28

We’re still waiting for an explanation of your 38 years of construction contract bidding and execution experience.

 
Comment by scdave
2011-08-16 13:04:00

We are not yet seeing much dirt being pushed around generally ??

The dirt that is getting pushed around down there is for 55 & over and also as sited living residential facilities…

 
Comment by scdave
2011-08-16 15:22:34

Well, like you said grasshopper, I am out of business and can’t make any money so I just don’t this poor, business failing old man has anything constructive to offer a young, successful, profit making enterprise like you…

 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-16 18:59:41

“And where over the past 38 years would you like me to start ??”

Anywhere. Something. Anything to substantiate you have some fundamental understanding of estimating.

 
Comment by SV guy
2011-08-16 19:52:20

Ex,

Leave it alone jeez. Your numbers aren’t even close for Kalifornia.

You obviously have experience as does Rental Watch & scdave. I’ve got 28 years in the biz myself.

Let’s not argue on a personal level.

 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-17 05:50:10

They’re talking about costs associated with land development. Let’s talk about CONSTRUCTION costs per square foot.

 
 
 
Comment by rms
2011-08-16 06:48:05

Many homes were HELOC’d, and now their asking prices are up there with new home construction, and a new home is going to have cheaper insurance too. New home prices set the market price, and builders can still lower their prices and turn a profit.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-16 10:33:09

If you paid for a $100K house on a $300K lot in 2004, it’s going to be real tough to compete with a builders $150K new home on a $50K lot.

Builders like to eat. As noted repeatedly here, they are like sharks, all they know how to do is build houses. They will have zero guilt about undercutting the price of their 2003-2007 customers.

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Comment by WT Economist
2011-08-16 07:30:11

I think that is going to be the only source of construction for some time. That, and localized housing shortages (ie. NYC).

 
Comment by SV guy
2011-08-16 07:31:21

There is something to be said for having your own factory fresh toilet.

Never before used! (well except for the roofers, sheetrockers, etc.)

I have purchased used and am in the process of developing some dirt now. Few people really have the time and skill to go through building process unscathed. If you have to rely on a General you will most likely pay dearly. Regardless of how our society has
diminished the appreciation for manual labor, building a custom home is a lot of damn work.

But being able to quarterback the design process is the payoff.

Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-08-16 11:17:05

That new toilet smell!

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Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 12:33:57

Not after the roofers and sheetrockers get done with it.

 
 
Comment by TRADERJACK
2011-08-16 17:29:29

But, are you forgetting these?

“Section 20-15.060 Change the Time for Collection of Fees
The time for collection of Development Impact fees is hereby changed from the time of the building permit issuance to final inspection, excepting payment of school impact fees and other fees not within the jurisdiction of the City.”
The following fees will be collected prior to final inspection:
• CAPITAL FACILITY FEE
• SOUTHWEST AREA DEVELOPMENT IMPACT FEE
• SOUTHEAST AREA DEVELOPMENT IMPACT FEE
• UTILITY FEES (WATER AND WASTEWATER FEES)
• PARK FEES
• HOUSING ALLOCATION FEE
• FARMERS LANE EXTENSION FEE

And that adds up to lots of money!

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Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-16 09:07:01

“Cash-strapped builders”?

Really?

After the tax refunds they received, they have a lot more cash than people think.

One builder we bought from earlier in the cycle (who needed to sell), got back a ton of money from Uncle Sam, and has been buying land since preparing for the next upturn.

I’ll repeat what I’ve said before. We will see very few new housing starts until there is some price recovery. If builders could build for a profit today, they would, because, frankly, the quality of existing housing stock/foreclosures in many markets is not very good.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-16 04:11:17

Buying is cheaper than renting in most U.S. cities
cnnmoney

Home prices have taken such a beating and demand for rental units has increased so much that it’s now cheaper to buy a two-bedroom home than to rent one in most major U.S. cities.

According to real estate web site Trulia, buying was cheaper than renting in 74% of the country’s 50 largest cities in July. In just 12% of the cities, including New York, Seattle and San Francisco, renting was cheaper. In the remaining 14% of cities, renting was less expensive but close to the cost of buying.

In addition to a continuing decline in home prices, rock-bottom interest rates have added a lot of weight to the buy side of the scale. The overnight average rate for a 30-year fixed was just 4.19% on Monday, according to Bankrate.com. A 15-year fixed averaged just 3.43%.

Add in the tax perks of home ownership and for those who can afford it (and who can actually qualify for a loan), it certainly is a buyer’s market.

“It’s a personal decision, of course. But if you have a steady job and you are planning to stay for seven years or more and have enough cash to put 20% down and enough left over for seven or eight months of expenses, you’re better off buying in most places,” said Daisy Kong, a spokeswoman for Trulia.

Prices there have plunged more than 59% from their August 2006 peak, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index.

The median price of a two-bedroom, two-bath condo or townhouse is about $60,000, according to Trulia, a ratio of only six times the median annual rent of a similar rental apartment, which is $9,700.

Monthly mortgage payments on a median-priced Vegas condo would come to only $256 on a 30-year, 5% interest loan. Even factoring in property taxes and common charges of roughly $300 a month, the monthly amount is still much lower than the $810 in monthly rent they would pay on a similar place.

Detroit, according to Trulia, is another metro area where buying is better. The median price for a condo or townhouse is about seven times annual rent. Home prices in Mesa, Ariz. and Fresno, Calif. also clock in at seven times rent.

Comment by Blue Skye
2011-08-16 04:41:55

In places like Vegas and Detroit, a 1,000 pound rock on a chain around your neck is cheaper than a life preserver.

BTW, I’ve been away from the dock now for six weeks. Anchoring in pristine lakes along the Rideau system, occasionally visiting a friendly dock where a water hose is handy and some provisions can be obtained. Eating a lot of fresh fish and homemade pizza. A fresh block of ice ($3!) every four days keeps the beer & veggies cold. I’m getting spoiled. I see extravagant debt castles along the way, built since I was last here. I can’t even begin to imagine trading places with those people. Freedom has a price, but it’s relatively cheap.

Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-16 05:26:42

And the Servel cycle is cheaper than $3 pieces of ice.

Comment by Blue Skye
2011-08-16 06:48:50

I will look into that. Any more hints you care to pass along?

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Comment by SFC
2011-08-16 07:22:13

If you’d waited until January, you wouldn’t need to buy any ice.

Seriously though, that looks beautiful. I’d never even heard of it. Are you on a sailboat or motorboat? Is it cool enough at night to go without a generator/AC? Can you anchor just about anywhere? Are there marinas if you want to get off the boat for a while?

 
Comment by Patrick
2011-08-16 08:21:28

Blue Sky

Are you on the Rideau Canal System between the Thousand Islands and Ottawa?

If yes, have you ever tried the Trent Canal System?

Although cruising the 1000 Islands is great - you should try the 30,000 Islands in Georgian Bay at the Western end of the Trent. I think it is the most spectacular cruising area in the world !

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2011-08-16 10:06:33

Yes, I’m anchored in Dog Lake off the beach on Gilmour Point at the moment. I will cruise the Trent before long. Wish I could get into Tamagami, it is one of my childhood haunts.

It is cool enugh most evenings to be very comfortable. There are only a few days where A/C would be appreciated. The water is always cool enough for immersion therapy.

 
Comment by Patrick
2011-08-16 20:49:34

Blue Sky

You might want to try a winter vacation in Temagami at Tamar Resorts. They are open year round for ice fishing and snow mobiling. I like that area too.

 
 
 
 
Comment by hobo in mass
2011-08-16 04:56:23

So in the larger cities, where the largest number of people live, it is still cheaper to rent. Could the correct title of the article be “For the Majority of Americans, Renting is Cheaper than Buying?”

Was it Joe Friday who said “Just skew the facts, ma’am”?

Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-16 09:22:32

I’d highly doubt that. This metric only measured the 50 largest cities in the country. 12% of the 50 largest where it is cheaper to rent means 6 cities. 6.

How many people do the 6 cities of the 50 where it is cheaper to rent represent? Maximum of 50 million? I’m assuming MSA, not city limits…or else the number would be much smaller (SF for instance isn’t that big).

 
Comment by Robin
2011-08-16 18:00:45

Like skewing Elvis’ death date into his birthday, like Bimbo Bachmann - :)

 
 
Comment by Left Ohio
2011-08-16 05:17:43

Um, no. Buying is not better. Left my RENTAL Friday morning for work then away hiking and mountain climbing all weekend. One of my LOAN-OWNER co-workers woke up to a flooded basement and wasted his whole weekend replacing his water heater.

And yes, he is ever eager to brag about “building equity”.

Comment by drumminj
2011-08-16 14:56:35

Left my RENTAL Friday morning for work then away hiking and mountain climbing all weekend. One of my LOAN-OWNER co-workers woke up to a flooded basement and wasted his whole weekend replacing his water heater.

Yeah, my homeowner neighbor spent the weekend painting the exterior of his house. Had a quick chat as I was loading the kayak on the car to get out on the water, then off for a hike with the dog, and out for a fancy dinner with friends.

Granted, he truly owns the house..long-since paid off.

 
 
Comment by salinasron
2011-08-16 05:53:22

“increased so much that it’s now cheaper to buy a two-bedroom home than to rent one in most major U.S. cities.”

There are places here in Salinas where that statement would be true, but who wants to be tied to a piece of crap for something in the Ghetto or what will soon be a Ghetto. As a renter I have more degrees of freedom to take advantage of the unknown coming our way and I am willing to pay for that freedom. Once I buy I’m stuck just like everyone else.
As for spending, we don’t have to cut back; but with everything the government is pushing, cutting back is the new norm.

Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 06:55:52

If they are only looking at two-bedroom homes, then this survey is worthless. Two-bedrooms means mostly condoze. And condoze are dropping like a rock. Do their calculations include HOA fees?

Show me a rent vs. buy on a townhouse in the same neighborhood, or SFH vs. SFH. Or, show me a two-bed apartment vs. a suburban SFH.

And how much do you want to bet that those 12% cities are Where the Jobs Are?

 
 
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2011-08-16 15:58:00

“you are planning to stay for seven years or more”

The best laid plans…

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-16 04:13:12

“A system of capitalism presumes sound money, not fiat money manipulated by a central bank. Capitalism cherishes voluntary contracts and interest rates that are determined by savings, not credit creation by a central bank.” - Ron Paul

Comment by Blue Skye
2011-08-16 04:46:00

He’s got some strange ideas that one!

“When the federal government spends more each year than it collects in tax revenues, it has three choices: It can raise taxes, print money, or borrow money. While these actions may benefit politicians, all three options are bad for average Americans.”

Comment by Mike in Miami
2011-08-16 05:24:24

Those ideas are far too advanced for the average voter, they simply can’t understand what he is talking about.
Here are some arguments the average corn fed retard understands:
- abortion is murder
- nuke ‘em, take their oil
- gays are evil, as are liberals, tree huggers and oil companies
- no more taxes (for the rich)
- Obama is a muslim
- muslims want to kill us
- drill baby drill
- wars are patriotic/good
- cut the other guy’s benefit/subsidies, not mine
- gimme more gubermint cheese
- prayer against debt (Rick Perry)
- intelligent design, evolution is the devil’s work
- the US is the greatest country on earth
- abstinence only
- the earth is flat (at least in Iowa & Kansas)
Those are the arguments the American sucker understands and votes for. He/she simply lacks the intellectual capabilities to follow complex arguments about monetary policy, the FED, deficit spending or how Wall Street is ripping him off. If anybody is to blame it’s the Liberals, oil companies, tree huggers, Muslims/foreigners, etc.
That’s the simple world the majority of voters live in and the banksters and their political puppets love it. You can win an election campaign run on demagogy alone, no real arguments needed.

Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-16 06:36:38

BINGO. That sums up your typical GOP voter.

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Comment by nickpapageorgio
2011-08-16 16:32:06

Why don’t we go ahead and take a close look at your average fringe progressive voter’s thinking:

- Paper bags kill trees, let’s use plastic…oops they never decompose, let’s use reusable bags…oops they are bacteria traps…and so on.

- Let’s mandate all cars be electric or hybrid…oops we have to burn more coal and produce environmentally toxic batteries.

- I don’t like what some people eat, so let’s go ahead and ban that food.

- I don’t like the smell of smoke, so let’s ban cigarette smoking and tax the $hit of the product while at the same time promoting marijuana smoking.

- Guns scare me, so how about we ban possession and concealed carry even though criminals do not obey those laws.

- If we are nice to terrorists they will change their ways and leave us alone

- I don’t like the words some people use, so those words should be banned.

- It’s not good enough for Gays, Lesbians, Questioning, Trans gender and Bisexuals to be generally accepted by most Americans…we need to make them a protected class with more rights than heterosexuals.

- Let’s encourage immigrants to live in separate enclaves and not have them become part of our great melting pot.

- Israel is the terrorist of the middle east.

- In an effort to combat poverty, how about we house the poor in crime infested prison like public housing projects and provide them with just enough food to keep them from rioting.

- The US constitution is by outdated and does not give enough power to the Federal Government.

- We should create a society with so many laws that it will become nearly impossible for citizens to avoid breaking laws while simply conducting their own private business.

- Protect US jobs by encouraging illegal immigration. (One of my favorites)

- The United States is not special, we are no better than any other country and need to be brought down to size.

- Too much freedom is not good.

- Wars are good if our guy is in the White house.

- We should follow the European model of Statism (How is that working out these days?)

- Everyone in flyover country is not smart enough to vote correctly.

- The rich are those households making $250k per year.

Just a small sample. Enjoy :)

 
Comment by Robin
2011-08-16 18:10:34

How many years before some Americans cross the border 5 or more days a week for a better job with better pay in MEXICO?

 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-16 19:02:25

Well said Nick. As others have previously mentioned, we’ve long since abandoned any expectation of GOP types to *think* about all those things you mentioned.

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2011-08-16 06:50:06

Obviously you’ve never been to Kansas. It is one of the most tilted states anywhere.

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Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-16 11:22:07

Field Elevation, Downtown Airport, Kansas City (KMKC) = 757 feet

Field Elevation, Goodland, Kansas (KGLD) = 3656 feet.

You don’t want to fly west out of KC, with your autopilot set for 2000 feet.

 
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2011-08-16 16:10:06

Elevation, Philadelphia airport = 36 ft.
Elevation, Pittsburgh airport = 1203 ft.

You still don’t want to set your autopilot for 2000 ft. If you do it in Kansas, you may fly in for a controlled landing at 2000 ft somewhere in the middle of the state. In Pennsylvania, you will fly into the side of a mountain ridge somewhere west of Harrisburg.

That said, the middle of the country generally has rolling terrain. Outside of a few places like the Bonneville Salt flats or Edwards Air Force Base, there are not too many places that are actually flat as a pancake.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-16 16:50:31

In Pennsylvania, you will fly into the side of a mountain ridge somewhere west of Harrisburg.

And if you’re driving east to west across PA on the Turnpike, you’ll suddenly encounter mountains! Tunnels!

It’s a dramatic change of topography, to say the least.

 
 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2011-08-16 07:09:55

We really need to institute a minimum IQ requirement, and limit voting to those who pay more into the system in taxes than they take out in entitlements. And give small business owners one extra vote for every five jobs they create or maintain. That would decimate the current Republicrat political class.

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Comment by Big V
2011-08-16 12:48:00

“abstinence only” for girls. Guys can do whatever they want. Especially preachers.

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Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 13:25:17

In this case, I have to agree with Big V.

Girl says yes –> she gets blamed.
Girl says no –> she gets shunned.
Girl avoids the issue –> she’s branded as gay.

 
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2011-08-16 16:22:12

While I agree that there is and has always been a double standard and that it irritates me, I have come to the conclusion that biology dictates that women bear more of the risks of sex than men do. Pregnancy, rape, disease all affect women more than men.

Culture and laws can mitigate the risks, but not eliminate them. We should not withhold this fundamental truth from our girl children. And we should encourage them to abstain until they are ready to face the risks, preferably with a lifetime partner.

 
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2011-08-16 18:13:42

BTW, I also believe we should encourage young men to abstain as well.

But that does not mean that we should neglect to teach them about sex and all of its ramifications and how to reduce their risk. I firmly believe that public schools are a good place to teach sex education as a part of a broader health curriculum. For some of those students it will be their only opportunity to learn about health and nutrition and public health issues and the truth about how babies come to be. They may not need to know it immediately, but some time in their life they probably will.

 
Comment by Robin
2011-08-16 18:30:52

Does the term “girl children” seem inappropriate to others as it does to me? It seems to engender a sense of fragility and innocence, and, possibly lack of intelligence or competence.

Should “female children” replace the aforementioned term inasmuch as the discussion was set up as the double standard between men and women?

Just sayin’ - actually, I agree, but I taught Critical Thinking for years, so I can’t help myself - :)

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2011-08-16 19:31:52

Then you know rap music is NOT misogynist..right?

Singers write about what they know and about the people in the front row. So if the wimmin in the front row are ho’s ‘N’ bitcheez and freaky not wearing underwear……..well…..why do women lower themselves so much as to give these guys so much to write about???

——————————————–
but I taught Critical Thinking for years, so I can’t help myself - :)

 
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2011-08-16 21:35:57

“Does the term “girl children” seem inappropriate to others as it does to me? “

Interesting. Perhaps I have some lingering unconscious double standard absorbed during my childhood. :)

My opinion about teaching young women to avoid sex comes from having raised both boys and girls. It was at that point that I understood at a gut level that the risks that boys and girls face are different. Boys are less likely to get raped, but more likely to get beat up.

 
Comment by Big V
2011-08-16 22:38:50

It’s only inappropriate so much as it’s redundant. A girl is, by definition, a child.

 
Comment by Big V
2011-08-16 22:44:38

BTW, you can’t avoid rape by avoiding sex. The best way to avoid rape is to be so ridiculously promiscuous that you would never say no to anyone, under any circumstances. The first word spoken during a rape is “no”.

 
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2011-08-16 23:31:51

“BTW, you can’t avoid rape by avoiding sex.”

I know that. :)

Some things are beyond one’s control. That doesn’t mean one should not try to control one’s own behavior.

 
 
 
 
Comment by combotechie
2011-08-16 05:11:25

“Capitalism cherishes voluntary contracts and interest rates that are determined by savings, not credit creation by a central bank.”

IMO economic distortions really gets wild and out of hand when borrowed money outdoes earned money as a way of getting through life.

When times are such that ones house “earns” more income than one’s job, when borowed money benifits the borrower tax wise and at the same time earned money penalizes earners tax wise then the distortions really become wild.

If the economy was to expand from earned money alone - from earned money directly or from earned money indirectly (i.e. borrowing somebody else’s saved earnings) - then we wouldn’t have all these distortions caused by this out-of-control expansion because the money would not be available to finance an out-of-control expansion. But because the expansion was financed by an seemingly unlimited supply of newly created money not connected to earned money in any way whatsoever the expansion had no limits whatsoever, no restaints whatsoever.

The expansion (or the bubble if that is what you want to call it) went on until it couldn’t go on anymore, and it is at this point (which was about five years ago) that the expansion stopped being an expansion and began to become a contraction.

And that is where we are now, in the contraction. And this contraction is destined to go on until the borrowed part of the expansion is poofed away and only the earned part of the expansion is left.

All of this is my opinion - a tentative one at that - which I am posting for discussion and clarification purposes.

Comment by Blue Skye
2011-08-16 05:47:30

Your points are well taken Combo. When promises spend easy as cash, the sky is the limit. Loss of faith sends things the other way.

40 or so years ago, there was a solid mistrust of big promises and you had to pretty much have the means already to make good to be believed. Those days are returning, should be with a vengance.

In Process Engineering we see a lot of P&ID loops. The image of the pen on a strip chart is vivid. A big deviation from norm is followed by a big swing back, and past the norm. It takes many swings to settle down to something desirable.

Comment by combotechie
2011-08-16 06:22:14

“A big deviation from the norm is followed by a big swing back, and past the norm. It takes many swings to settle down to something desirable.”

IOW the “norm” is a type of average, it’s a mean. To make a mean the area on the chart (area as defined by time and intensity) above the mean must equal the area below the mean.

Because the chart area is determined by time and intensity the greater the intensity the less time it will take to go back to the mean. And threverse it true: the less the intensity the greater will be the time needed to go back to the mean.

So, if our economy matches your chart, and if it is true that the two areas on your chart must offset each each other, then that means we can either fix our economy quickly and at the same time endure a lot of pain, or we can fix it slowly and endure a little pain - but endure the pain for a long time. (Assuming, of course, that we can fix it at all.)

It looks as if Japan seemed to have chosen the slow and less painful way. If slow and less painfull is our choice then maybe we should look to Japan to see what our future looks like.

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Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-08-16 07:36:30

“If slow and less painfull is our choice then maybe we should look to Japan to see what our future looks like.”

Let’s hope so!

It amuses me the horror with which many here behold Japan. They’re the third largest economy in the world, they have the longest life expectancy of any country in the world, the third lowest infant mortality rate in the world, and their unemployment is currently under 5%. They’re one of the export powerhouses of the world, with an amazing industrial base. Their economy was bouncing back from their ‘lost decade’, showing faster growth than both the US and European Union in the period after 2005, and their growth wasn’t based on selling houses to each other (they’ve been there, done that, lost their shirts and learned their lesson).

Their biggest problem is an aging population and a lack of immigration.

 
Comment by Awaiting
2011-08-16 10:50:53

alpha
Good summary of Japan.

“longest life expectancy”
OT, but I heard Medicare patients take on average of 7-12 pharmaceuticals prescribed by at least 2 different doctors. I wonder if Japan’s Universal Health Care is less likely to be legal drug pushers, and that’s another factor of longevity, other than lifestyle and culture. Piling on the side effects from numerous pharmaceuticals can’t be a good thing.

For all the money we spend on healthcare, we should be # 1,not 37th.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2011-08-16 16:37:27

It may work to be a few simple things. For example, I know a Japanese woman who told me that the main type of meat that they eat is fish. They eat very little beef or chicken. Also, most of the population probably lives in cities, which would mean that they spend some time walking or biking every day. I think that the American suburban way of life, which revolves around the car, is a source of a lot of health problems.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-16 16:52:01

For all the money we spend on healthcare, we should be # 1,not 37th.

The low ranking means that the money’s not being spent well, doesn’t it?

 
Comment by Awaiting
2011-08-16 17:39:40

MightyMike
Good points, and I think we’re more processed food oriented, too.

I admire Az Slim’s love of biking. My 45 minutes of treading each morning is against my will. I hate it, but I do it.

 
Comment by mathguy
2011-08-16 18:38:36

Who knows, maybe it means the wealth and middle class spend a lot on boob jobs and tummy tucks, artificial insemination and laser eye surgery… Excluding “optional” medical costs what does the medical spending per person break down to?

 
 
 
Comment by combotechie
2011-08-16 05:51:55

The expansion of money caused and was reflected in an expansion of the financial sector of our economy.

It used to be - when it was earned money that was mostly made available for expansion - that the financial sector was a small part of the economy because the financial sector existed to serve the larger economy. But when the economy morphed from an earned economy into a borrowed economy then the financial sector of the economy grew and was puffed up way out of proportion as compared to the larger economy and became an economy unto itself.

But now that the contraction is at hand and we get to witness the puffed up financial sector contract as the borrowed money
that puffed up the financial sector is poofed away.

Ashes to ashes, dust to dust, thin air to thin air. What the expansion giveth the contraction will taketh away.

Comment by redrum
2011-08-16 08:15:27

“It used to be … that the financial sector was a small part of the economy because the financial sector existed to serve the larger economy. But when the economy morphed from an earned economy into a borrowed economy then the financial sector of the economy grew and was puffed up way out of proportion as compared to the larger economy and became an economy unto itself.”

To some degree, I think the roles have been completely reversed. The “larger” economy is now seen as subservient to the financial economy. For instance, how many of us work in companies which were built and run by the folks who knew how to build things; but now find themselves run by the “bean counters”? New products, technologies, ideas for the future, just don’t matter if they can’t contribute to the current quarters earnings report.

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Comment by cactus
2011-08-16 10:08:35

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/weight-of-financial-sector-relative-to-sp-500-index-2526.html

finacial sector did puff up way over its long term average as a percentage of the S&P topping in 2006

its back down now.

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Comment by Left Ohio
2011-08-16 05:35:57

Does the MSM receive direct instruction from their corporate paymasters to ignore Ron Paul? Example: the fawning coverage of Michelle Blechhman’s ‘win’ in Iowa last weekend, despite beating Paul by 100 votes.

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2011-08-16 07:20:23

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2lSgFl_CeA

Watch Jack Cafferty do the unpardonable: breaking CNN’s near-blackout of the Ron Paul campaign to point out that RP had just finished a strong second to Michele Bachmann in the Iowa GOP primary. I can guarantee that earned Cafferty a private reprimand from CNN’s content commisars, but it should earn him respect and gratitude from ordinary Americas fed up with their diet of corporatist propaganda.

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2011-08-16 07:54:17

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/entertainment/2011/08/jon-stewart-ron-paul/41311/

Jon Stewart - an entertainer who provides far more valuable insights than the corporatist shills of the MSM - asks “Why is everyone [in the mainstream media] ignoring Ron Paul?” His compilation of news clips could not make it more obvious that the MSM is under orders from their corporate masters to promote the usual empty-suit muppets the Establishment Republicrats are pushing as our next Tweedle Dee/Tweedle Dum “choices.”

Comment by Montana
2011-08-16 09:46:02

LOL - Stewart concern trolling for Ron Paul. Is he on Journolist too?

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Comment by nickpapageorgio
2011-08-16 16:47:11

I watched in amazement as the media gave the straw poll results as if Ron Paul was not event a candidate. Calling it a three person race after Pawlenty dropped out…Bachman, Romney and Perry.

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Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2011-08-16 18:54:25

Why were you amazed? Don’t you know our media by now?

 
Comment by nickpapageorgio
2011-08-17 00:32:44

I guess I thought they could not avoid giving him props for such a strong showing…Cowards, all of them.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Darrell_in_phoenix
2011-08-16 06:53:26

Savings are not possible wihtout debt.

The more I hear Ron Paul talk, the more convinced I am that he too does not get it.

Money does not exist without offsettng debt. Oh, right, he wants to go back to a gold standard. Well, guess what. Even under the gold standard there were banks making loans, resulting in far more dollars represented by gold, then actual gold.

It ins’t that fact that dollasrs are IOUs that is the problem. The problem is that we allowed the debt and offsetting dollars to grow at an unsustainable pace, making it unlikely the debt can be repaid, putting the value of the dollars that represent that debt at risk of just “going away” when the debt goes away.

Comment by mathguy
2011-08-16 10:13:03

It is the fact that dollars have been allowed to grow at too fast a pace that merits the call to go back to the gold standard. Remember, in a gold standard, silver and copper are also used as part of the monetary base in coins. A gold standard provides a natural braking mechanism to the uncontrolled monetary debt growth. If people feel that the dollar is being devalued they simply go change in their dollars for gold. Yes, this can cause a run on the bank. Yes, as a sheeple consumer you *should* have to worry about the financial security of the institute you are depositing your money at.

You keep identifying the problem over and over, but keep shooting down the solution that has a long long proven track record. Why is that?

 
 
Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 07:09:25

A system of capitalism presumes earning maximum profit on a quarterly basis, nothing else.

All this malarky about “sound money” and voluntary contracts might be nice, but his shining knigh ideals go out the window if there is profit to be had. And they don’t care if the profit is labor money or *poof* money.

Coporations would run right over Ron Paul.

Comment by In Colorado
2011-08-16 07:33:57

Coporations would run right over Ron Paul.

I agree. They want their government cheese, bailouts and having the US military protecting their interests around the globe.

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-08-16 08:24:58

“Coporations would run right over Ron Paul.”

And they would run right over us if his ideas- no SEC, no EPA, no FDA, no FDIC, etc were ever implemented.

 
Comment by Max Power
2011-08-16 10:46:38

“Corporations would run right over Ron Paul.”

Haven’t corporations been running over every administration? I don’t necessarily disagree with your statement, but I’m not sure it’s a valid reason for dismissing his candidacy. If you want a guy in the white house that is truly different than the status quo, is there anyone that stands out other than Ron Paul?

And let me be clear (that was my Barack Obama impression), I don’t agree with everything Ron Paul wants to do. And many of the things that he wants to do can’t be done without Congress and therefore won’t be done. But monetarily and fiscally I sure do like the direction he’d be pulling the rest of DC. Not perfect, but he appears to be our best chance of truly shaking things up and getting this country moving in a different, more sustainable direction.

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-16 04:19:25

Obama: I reversed recession until ‘bad luck’ hit
by Byron York

At a town hall meeting on his campaign-style tour of the Midwest, President Obama claimed that his economic program “reversed the recession” until recovery was frustrated by events overseas. And then, Obama said, with the economy in an increasingly precarious position, the recovery suffered another blow when Republicans pressed the White House for federal spending cuts in exchange for an increase in the national debt limit, resulting in a deal Obama called a “debacle.”

“We had reversed the recession, avoided a depression, gotten the economy moving again,” Obama told a crowd in Decorah, Iowa. “But over the last six months we’ve had a run of bad luck.” Obama listed three events overseas — the Arab Spring uprisings, the tsunami in Japan, and the European debt crises — which set the economy back.

“All those things have been headwinds for our economy,” Obama said. “Now, those are things that we can’t completely control. The question is, how do we manage these challenging times and do the right things when it comes to those things that we can control?”

“The problem,” Obama continued, “is that we’ve got the kind of partisan brinksmanship that is willing to put party ahead of country, that is more interested in seeing their political opponents lose than seeing the country win. Nowhere was that more evident than in this recent debt ceiling debacle.”

Except for its updated details, much of the president’s speech resembled the stump speeches he gave when campaigning for Democrats before the 2010 midterm elections. But the White House claims this trip is non-political, part of the president’s officials duties to discuss economic issues with the public. For the three-day tour through Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri, the Secret Service has rolled out two new buses, costing more than $1 million apiece, to take the president and his aides around the countryside.

Comment by Blue Skye
2011-08-16 04:59:49

It is refreshing to hear the Campaigner in Chief claim that he broke free from the legacy of his predecessor. Too bad stuff happened to him since then. He’s got to be really pissed that stuff keeps happening to him.

I fail to see how a cohesive stumping strategy can be developed. Cool busses though. What a bug-out vehicle!

 
Comment by combotechie
2011-08-16 05:28:24

“But over the past six months we had a run of bad luck.”

Bad economic luck seems to be in synch with the flow of money.

When money flows free and easy then good luck seems to flow free and easy. When the money stops flowing then “bad luck” seems to appear at the scene. Funny how that is.

So - which is it? - is it money flow that causes the luck or is it luck that causes the money flow?

Comment by combotechie
2011-08-16 05:31:45

Here’s a chart that might help supply an answer to the question of whether it is luck or money flow:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 07:18:41

I’m guessing that vertical leg down in the middle of the Great Recession roughly aligns with the Lehman Brothers collapse?

And is the take-home message of the chart that the Fed is still pushing on a string, or am I missing something?

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Comment by combotechie
2011-08-16 07:46:48

“… or am I missing something?”

That’s my take.

Money that goes into banks doesn’t come out again, so the banks who historically act to increase the money in circulation via loans are now increasingly decreasing the money in circulation by acepting payments for loans already made but not re-loaning this money out again.

Note: The line is well below the break-even point of one and it continues to drop.

 
2011-08-16 16:36:32

AKA deflation.

 
 
Comment by Patrick
2011-08-16 08:59:43

Combotechie

Have you noticed that the Bank prime rate and the six month CD rate averages have traditionally run 2% different throughout history except for the Bubble period when it averaged 3% during the run up?

Banks either have not had any productivity gains for the last fifty years or have not passed their savings on - like industry has.

As well, I think Obama should look into this current excess profit being made by the banks on their interest spreads. Banks will say that they should be entitled to them as they are covering their anticipated RE losses. (A continued 2% on a miniscule base !)

During the run up they profited excessively; throughout massive productivity gains they have never passed on a single dollar saved; and now they get hostorically record profits which they can write off due to anticipated RE losses on mortgages they don’t even own.

Someday someone will notice. Time to start breaking the banks up - no more TBTF - I hope.

Please note that for easier reading and to illustrate my points I have rounded.

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Comment by Bill in Carolina
2011-08-16 05:55:12

The Arab Spring uprisings caused OUR economy to falter? ‘Splain, please.

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2011-08-16 07:14:27

That’s like saying the trees waving made the wind blow. The Arab uprisings were mainly a popular response to soaring inflation, especially for essentials like flour and sugar. For that Bernanke and his money-printing can take a substantial share of the responsibility, since commodity inflation has soared due to the flood of Bernanke Bucks gifted to the Primary Dealers (18 TBTF Wall Street banks) so they could resume their reckless speculation in global markets. You know, the same practices that led to the 2008 crash in the first place….

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Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-08-16 07:52:08

Hey, if a little inflation in commodities is all it takes to bring down some really awful dictatorships, then maybe QE ain’t such a bad thing after all.

And Bill- I assume Obama was referring to the fact that the Arab uprisings caused oil prices to spike.

 
Comment by michael
2011-08-16 10:00:14

Liberation through Starvation.

obama/biden 2012

 
Comment by butters
2011-08-16 10:26:40

And Bill- I assume Obama was referring to the fact that the Arab uprisings caused oil prices to spike.

Asumption is mother of all fookups. The fact is oil prices skyrocketed after Obama decided to intervene in Libya. You can’t have your cake and eat it!

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-08-16 11:34:51

“The fact is oil prices skyrocketed after Obama decided to intervene in Libya”

The fact is, they had risen even before the Arab uprisings, but the uprisings caused them to spike even more. I guess you could attempt to lay all the blame for the increased risk premium due to the uprisings all over the region on Obama’s decision to engage in one of the countries. It sounds like one of Glen Beck’s convoluted, ahistorical* theories, which you’d probably be receptive to.

* Mideast unrest has almost always caused spikes in oil prices, with or without American intervention.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-16 16:54:31

Interesting to note how that pesky Arab Spring is taking hold in…

…Israel.

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Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2011-08-16 18:56:56

Imagine that: a middle class (in Israel) that stands up for itself. What a concept.

 
 
 
 
Comment by michael
2011-08-16 05:40:51

didn’t bush inherit the dot.com bubble bursting and the ensuing recession?

didn’t bush increase spending and lower taxes to “cure” that recession?

didn’t two planes then fly into two buildings in NYC causing an even deeper recession?

didn’t bush implement the same polices as before to try and “cure” that recession?

didn’t obama inerit the real etate buble bursting and the ensuing recession?

didn’t obama increase spending and lower taxes to “cure” that recession?

didn’t “frustrating events overseas” cause an even deeper recession?

didn’t obama implement the same polices as before to try and “cure” that recession?

didn’t obama/bachman/perry/douchebag/turd sandwich inherit the…

Comment by Blue Skye
2011-08-16 06:51:57

The rest of us will just inherit the wind.

Comment by Neuromance
2011-08-16 17:41:49

Those that sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.

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Comment by Darrell_in_phoenix
2011-08-16 06:56:06

We reversed the recession by having the government take on the additional debt that our trade imbalanced plagued economy needs to function. That was always a delay tactic and not a real solution.

This is a solvancy depression, not a liquidity recession.

Comment by michael
2011-08-16 07:50:50

to loosely quote Charles Hugh Smith “these are not distinct and separate events…it’s a process”.

 
Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 13:29:44

There is no such thing as a solvency depression if you have future labor to sell.

If you’re poor and you owe X, promise 30 years of labor.
If you’re poor and you owe 2X, promise 60 years of labor.
If you’re rich and you owe 14000000000000X, create the money with 0.02 minutes labor on a laptop.

Comment by michael
2011-08-16 14:30:59

debt is future labor.

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Comment by Birddog13
2011-08-16 04:44:49

“we’ve got the kind of partisan brinksmanship that is willing to put party ahead of country, that is more interested in seeing the political opponents lose than seeing the country win.”

Doubly true this time around, because he’s Black. Just keeping it 100, y’all.

Comment by Blue Skye
2011-08-16 05:02:07

Troll, we don’t have any apetite for that BS.

Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-16 05:28:20

Mischaracterizing a fact as a troll doesn’t do much for you.

Comment by Blue Skye
2011-08-16 06:53:25

Exeter, are you saying you’d like this to be a racial bashing forum? Go for it then. See ya.

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Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-16 07:20:21

Fair enough. It’s not the right place even regardless of the fact I agree with it.

 
 
 
Comment by rusty
2011-08-16 06:05:18

love that race card!

Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-16 06:25:59

Label and run when without defense.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 07:21:15

Rebumblicans are great at labels. Thinking’s hard.

 
Comment by michael
2011-08-16 10:05:03

thinking is easy compared to economics…it’s double plus hard.

(hehe…that’s what she said)

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 07:20:01

It’s hard to ignore the possibility of racism when a bunch of white Republican bigots are blowing hard 24-7.

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Comment by scdave
2011-08-16 07:40:08

+1 Pbear…

 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-08-16 08:25:47

love that race card!

A lot on the right want to have it both ways on the “race-card”. They hint at and covertly infuse racial aspects in their arguments and then when they are called out on it they act all offended and self self-righteous.

It’s a stone cold fact that many influential “leaders” on the right utilize the race-card in their propaganda. But when called out on incidents such as the one below, they will bizzarly claim that the one calling them out is the one playing the race-card. It’s like they lack a certain comprehension of reality or even worse, they nurture their hypocrisy for its perceived power.

Glenn Beck Predicts Race Riots If Obama Not Re-Elected

http://newsone.com/nation/thegrio1/obama-spark-race-riots-if-not-re-elected/

Conservative cable news pundit Glenn Beck is once again back in the news for making controversial racially based remarks.

This time, Beck said Obama would ignite race riots if he is not re-elected.

“I firmly believe that race riots are on the way,” Beck told listeners of his radio show. ”They are being encouraged…[the Obama administration] will take this country down. If it looks like they are losing, the uber left, they will take it down. If I can’t have it, no one will.”

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Comment by scdave
2011-08-16 09:58:51

Nice post Rio…Beck is a slime ball and it just confirms what we agree about many on the right that are racists because if they were not, how they hell does a guy like Beck get a radio show much less a T/V slot…

 
 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 07:14:59

I’m sure there’s still some racism hanging around, but not “doubly” worth. Maybe 1.2?

 
Comment by Montana
2011-08-16 09:49:02

One man’s “partisan brinksmanship” is another man’s “tough negotiating.”

Too bad we got so little for it.

 
Comment by Al
2011-08-16 11:57:24

For the wealthy and powerful, race is just a tool to divide the masses. They don’t look at the colour of someone’s skin, nor what is in their heart. They judge by the balance sheet.

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2011-08-16 07:24:43

http://www.corpun.com/singfeat.htm

Here’s the antidote to both the feral punk and the irresponsible ho-bag that spawned him.

 
Comment by FB wants a do over
2011-08-16 07:54:24

She is on benefits, does not live with the boy’s father and has 10 other children, the court heard.

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2011-08-16 08:07:08

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXRjmyJFzrU

“IDOCRACY” was so prophetic. Sadly, the Republicrats push policies that promote and reward the dumbing-down and dependence of the sheeple, as The Herd can more easily be manipulated into voting for the status quo - as in the case of the 90% of the electorate who voted for Obama and McCain.

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2011-08-16 10:08:14

Art imitating life imitating beyond belief some days.

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Comment by Ol'Bubba
2011-08-16 05:03:03

Here’s a link to an interesting (and really long) article entitled “Can the Middle Class Be Saved” written by Don Peck in The Atlantic.

http://tinyurl.com/CanMiddleClassBeSaved

From the article:

“It’s hard to miss just how unevenly the Great Recession has affected different classes of people in different places. From 2009 to 2010, wages were essentially flat nationwide—but they grew by 11.9 percent in Manhattan and 8.7 percent in Silicon Valley. In the Washington, D.C., and San Jose (Silicon Valley) metro areas—both primary habitats for America’s meritocratic winners—job postings in February of this year were almost as numerous as job candidates. In Miami and Detroit, by contrast, for every job posting, six people were unemployed. In March, the national unemployment rate was 12 percent for people with only a high-school diploma, 4.5 percent for college grads, and 2 percent for those with a professional degree.”

“Housing crashed hardest in the exurbs and in more-affordable, once fast-growing areas like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and much of Florida—all meccas for aspiring middle-class families with limited savings and education. The professional class, clustered most densely in the closer suburbs of expensive but resilient cities like San Francisco, Seattle, Boston, and Chicago, has lost little in comparison. And indeed, because the stock market has rebounded while housing values have not, the middle class as a whole has seen more of its wealth erased than the rich, who hold more-diverse portfolios. A 2010 Pew study showed that the typical middle-class family had lost 23 percent of its wealth since the recession began, versus just 12 percent in the upper class.”

Comment by combotechie
2011-08-16 06:41:31

“Housing crashed hardest in the exurbs and in more-affordable, once fast-growing areas like Pheonix, Las Vegas and much of Florida.”

These areas were the “borrowed money” areas. The money that flowed into these areas was from the “borrowed economy”.

“The professional class, clustered most densly in the closer suburbs of expensive but resilient like San Francisco, Seattle, Boston, and Chicago, has lost little in comparison.”

These are the “earned money” areas. The money that flowed into these areas was mostly earned money and the borrowing that was done was backed by earned money.

When the borrowing stopped and went into reverse the borrowed money areas got badly hosed but the earned money areas did not.

 
Comment by rms
2011-08-16 07:00:25

This was posted a couple of days ago.

It would appear that the definition of who/what constitutes the middle class family needs to be redefined. Two educated incomes in the family have been the norm for some time, along the coasts anyway.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2011-08-16 08:55:45

I didn’t see the prior post. Do you remember which thread was it posted in, rms?

Comment by rms
2011-08-16 12:05:39

It was in the bits bucket a day or two ago.

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Comment by scdave
2011-08-16 07:42:30

Nice post…thanks…

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-08-16 08:08:56

“Housing crashed hardest in the exurbs and in more-affordable, once fast-growing areas like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and much of Florida—all meccas for aspiring middle-class families with limited savings and education. The professional class, clustered most densely in the closer suburbs of expensive but resilient cities like San Francisco, Seattle, Boston, and Chicago, has lost little in comparison”

I’ve been pointing out the same phenomenon here in Flyover, too. Closer, nicer, established suburbs have maintained- or even increased- their prices, while the exurbs, condos, and marginal areas are bearing the brunt of the price reductions. At least thus far.

 
 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-16 05:29:22

Yes Virginia…….. Realtors Are Liars®

 
Comment by Darrell_in_phoenix
2011-08-16 07:01:45

How can people that run global economics be so clueless?

PIIGS are implimenting austarity. Germany shocked that their exports to the PIIGS countries are falling and their economy slowing.

Hello idiots. Every trade has to have a buyer and a seller. If one party is selling more than buying, then someone else has to be buying more than selling.

Money and debt are offsetting factors that result from trade imbalances. Trade imbalances can not exist long-term because debt builds up to excessive levels. If the trade imbalances do not reverse, the debt can not be repaid.

Germany, YOU WANTED PAID BACK? Simple, start buying more from your trade partners than you sell them, reversing the trade imbalance.

Oh, but that makes you poorer and you do not want to be poorer? Then watch the debt collapse and the money just vanish.

Comment by In Colorado
2011-08-16 07:29:14

This seems to be a major flaw in the model that we call modern capitalism: Everyone wants to be a net exporter, preferably with a huge trade surplus. And those who are net importers tend to run out of money, so they borrow money from the net exporters. Then they can’t pay it back.

Cue Gomer Pyle: Surprise, surprise, surprise.

Meanwhile, Karl Marx must be laughing his head off, wherever he is.

Comment by combotechie
2011-08-16 07:36:45

“And those who are net exporters tend to run out of money, so they borrow money from the next exporters. Then they can’t pay it back.”

But it doesn’t stop there. Money (among other things) is a claim on assets. If one has money then he possesses a claim on assets.

Those who have assets and need money are going to be forced to make a deal with those who have money but also would like to have assets.

If the need for money by the first person (or country) outweighs the desire for assets by the second person (or country) then the terms of whatever deal is struck to exchange money for assets will tend to favor the person with the money.

Comment by In Colorado
2011-08-16 11:41:50

“Money (among other things) is a claim on assets.”

It is in principle. It can also result in a default and you get nothing for all your nice bonds.

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Comment by combotechie
2011-08-16 12:46:09

“… you get nothing for your nice bonds.”

Er, bonds are debt instruments. They are not money.

Bonds can be exchanged for money if the bonds are honored by the issuer. But if they are not honored then the holder of the bonds is out the money.

It is money that are claims on assets, not bonds.

 
 
 
Comment by ElectricSheep
2011-08-16 08:54:57

Meanwhile, Karl Marx must be laughing his head off, wherever he is.

Funny, Dr. Doom himself had an article today on slate talking about this exact point.

Here it is.

Is Capitalism Doomed?
Karl Marx was right that globalization, financial intermediation, and income redistribution could lead capitalism to self-destruct.

By Nouriel Roubini

“Nor could monetary policy help very much. Quantitative easing is constrained by above-target inflation in the eurozone and United Kingdom. The U.S. Federal Reserve will likely start a third round of quantitative easing, QE3, but it will be too little too late. Last year’s $600 billion QE2 and $1 trillion in tax cuts and transfers delivered growth of barely 3 percent for one quarter. Then growth slumped to below 1 percent in the first half of 2011. QE3 will be much smaller and will do much less to reflate asset prices and restore growth.

Currency depreciation is not a feasible option for all advanced economies—they all need a weaker currency and better trade balance to restore growth, but they all cannot have it at the same time. So relying on exchange rates to influence trade balances is a zero-sum game. Currency wars are thus on the horizon, with Japan and Switzerland engaging in early battles to weaken their exchange rates. Others will soon follow.”

Comment by measton
2011-08-16 10:23:01

Capitalism is doomed when corporations become so large they can take over government. Government then becomes a tool of corporations to strip wealth from citizens. You loose all the benefits of capitalism when this happens, ie better products at a lower price when there is no competition. You also start to loose the benefits of democracy.

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Comment by Big V
2011-08-16 12:26:12

Colorado: Capitalism has nothing to do with being a net exporter. We once had a perfectly fine capitalist economy, with tariffs to protect us from the maleffects of trading with non-capitalist economies. We exported a lot, but we did just fine by trading amongst ourselves too. The prob isn’t capitalism, it’s globlism.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2011-08-16 12:23:58

There is something wrong with the PTB. They seem retarded.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 07:24:18

Have the serial bottom callers finally thrown in the towel on the foolish notion that the U.S. housing market is coming back next year?

Because it is looking more and more like we are at a 50-year trough in the long-term real estate cycle, and extend-and-pretend efforts to prop up home prices suggests it will last for a while.

The Financial Times
August 16, 2011 2:34 pm
US housing starts dip in July
By Shannon Bond in New York

Construction of new homes in the US dipped in July as bloated inventory levels and persistent weakness weighed on demand for single-family properties.

Housing starts pulled back 1.5 per cent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 604,000 last month from June’s downwardly revised 613,000, the census bureau said on Tuesday, compared with expectations of a fall to 600,000. Year on year, starts rose 9.8 per cent.

This range [since the beginning of the recovery] leaves us at the lowest levels since the series began in 1959. While monthly volatility is likely to continue, no real recovery looks to be on the horizon,” said Jill Brown, vice-president of economics at Credit Suisse.

More On this story

Confidence in US house sales remains low
US commercial property loan terms stay tight
Economic Outlook US growth signals awaited
US industrials prepare for risk of double dip
Consumer sentiment at 30-year low in US

 
Comment by Hard Rain
2011-08-16 07:31:45

Forget the cushy firefighter job I am heading for 7-11!!!

Arroyo cleared in fraud verdict
Ex-city firefighter was bodybuilder while on disability

Carris had reminded jurors that Arroyo had complained that his back problems were so bad he had trouble lifting a piece of paper. At the same time, she said, he was working out twice a day, at times using dumbbells to squat more than 200 pounds.

“It’s like telling people at work that you can’t type because your fingers are bothering you, but you’re a concert pianist in your spare time,’’ Carris said.

In addition to asserting that the government had not proved its case, Watkins said, “Bodybuilding or not, Albert Arroyo had a good-faith basis for filing the application.’’ He pointed out that the former firefighter had first sought treatment for on-the-job back injuries in 2000. He added that Arroyo did not have “the intent to deceive anyone, because he didn’t want to retire.’’

Watkins also argued that Arroyo’s disability claims would not have led to “a pot of gold.’’ Arroyo, 49, sought to collect an annual $65,000 tax-free pension.

“Accidental disability for someone Albert’s age is a prison,’’ Watkins said. “The cost of living goes up, and that’s it. He might make a little more money working at a 7-Eleven. . . . Why is that worth concocting a scheme?’’

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2011/08/16/former_firefighter_found_not_guilty_of_disability_fraud/?page=2

Comment by 2banana
2011-08-16 08:28:50

Watkins also argued that Arroyo’s disability claims would not have led to “a pot of gold.’’ Arroyo, 49, sought to collect an annual $65,000 tax-free pension.

Only to a public union goon does a $65,000 tax-free pension not equal hitting the lotto…

Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 18:52:27

I heard that a former acquaintance DID hit the lotto, and that his income was $50K a year tax free.

Sorry folks, I would on my way to oil city SO FAST.

 
 
Comment by cactus
2011-08-16 10:13:45

He might make a little more money working at a 7-Eleven.’

you can make 65K tax free working at a 7-11 ? no I don’t think so

 
 
Comment by ElectricSheep
2011-08-16 07:53:34

Perry Warns of Fed Treason, Challenges Obama
by Dan Balz
The Washington Post

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa — Texas Gov. Rick Perry turned his rhetorical fire on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke here Monday night, saying that the chairman would be committing a “treasonous” act if he tried to boost the economy with a decision to “print more money.”

Perry was responding to a question about “quantitative easing,” a monetary policy by which the government purchases Treasury bonds to inject more money into the economy, which he said would amount to a political attempt to help President Obama win reelection in 2012.

“If this guy prints more money between now and the election, I don’t know what you all would do to him in Iowa, but we would treat him pretty ugly down in Texas,” Perry said of the possibility of another round of so-called quantitative easing in the money supply.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/perry-warns-of-fed-treason-challenges-obama/2011/08/16/gIQABVScIJ_story.html?hpid=z1

Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-16 08:46:00

You’re not harping hard enough Parry. Louder. ;)

 
Comment by GH
2011-08-16 09:40:39

They are still trying to save the bond holders.

Funny thing is no one seems to know who the bondholders actually are. Once folks realize bondholders are generally pensioners the attitude about printing seems to change in a big hurry…

 
Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2011-08-16 12:16:24

So let me see if I can summarize.

It is more important that Obama lose the next election, than to delay the crash into depression.

 
 
Comment by measton
2011-08-16 08:17:16

Florida pastor found dead in a Times Square hotel room may have died of a drug overdose, according to a police source.

A small glassine envelope containing a white powder was found in Zachery Tims’s pocket, the source said.

Tims and his wife, Riva, founded the church in Orlando in 1996. It now has 8,000 members.

Two years ago, the couple divorced after he admitted having an affair with a stripper.

Comment by liz pendens
2011-08-16 10:20:16

Hookers and Blow and God. Its Florida…

 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-08-16 11:37:12

Two years ago, the couple divorced after he admitted having an affair with a stripper.

What’s amazing is that he still had a flock after that. If that isn’t proof that “mega-churches” are personality cults, I don’t know what is.

Comment by Al
2011-08-16 12:02:55

I’m sure he made a tearful confession about how he strayed from the path, but was forgiven after confessing to the big guy.

And the congregation, each individual thinking about their own laundry list of sins, readily accepted it.

Comment by Big V
2011-08-16 12:20:42

Do you think they would have forgiven his wife if she had an affair with the pool boy? Doubt it.

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Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2011-08-16 12:30:23

What’s amazing is that he still had a flock after that.

“Flock” being the operative word.

Comment by combotechie
2011-08-16 13:35:00

“‘Flock’ being the opertive word.”

Shear ‘em and shear ‘em and shear ‘em until you just can’t shear ‘em anymore.

Then skin ‘em.

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Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 13:35:36

Joel Osteen has moved into bigger and bigger digs over the past 8-9 years. Wife is all blonded and made up too.

Comment by GrizzlyBear
2011-08-16 20:08:04

Those people are disgusting.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-16 17:01:39

I belonged to a Pittsburgh church where the rector was discovered to be having an affair. While his wife was pregnant, no less.

Long story short: He had to leave that church, which was one of Pittsburgh’s most respected Episcopal churches.

Last I checked, he was still an Episcopal priest, but not in western PA.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 08:42:03

This sounds downright unpleasant. Try not to catch yourself a falling knife in the ‘death cross’ stock market.

Aug. 16, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT
‘Death cross’ springing up everywhere
Commentary: Indicator a harbinger of bear markets
By John Nyaradi

BEND, Ore. — The “death cross,” a high-profile bear-market indicator, springs up everywhere.

The death cross forms when the 50 Day Moving Average crosses the 200 Day Moving Average in a downward trajectory and is a widely followed indicator that’s commonly viewed as a harbinger of bear markets.

Last week, it flashed its warning, not only in the major indexes, but in many key sectors, as well.

Comment by cactus
2011-08-16 10:15:31

watch it it could cross back if not well that’s bad

 
Comment by combotechie
2011-08-16 11:46:56

Q. Why did the 50 Day moving Average cross the 200 Day Moving Average?

(Er, to get to the other side?)

 
Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 13:38:51

Honestly that doesn’t look like any predictable pattern to me. There are death crosses on the way up, as well as at the peaks.

 
 
 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2011-08-16 08:58:03

I was walking around town yesterday and noticed that a new RE business had sprung up called Investment Realty. When I saw it I was reminded that the development near my house, which the developer spent $40 million to buy the land and build the amenities, was going on the auction block next month with a $2.6 million minimum bid (the local fishwrap said that they would be lucky to even get that amount). Yes siree Bob, RE is the best “investment” you can make!

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-08-16 09:34:33

Paul B. Farrell Archives | Email alerts
Aug. 16, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT

Tax the super-rich or riots will rage in 2012

MarketWatch — What a year. Rage in London, Egypt, Athens, Damascus. All real. Just a metaphor in the new “Planet of the Apes” film? No, much more. Warning: More rage is dead ahead. Across our planet a new generation is filled with rage. High unemployment. Raging inflation. Dreams lost. Hope gone. While the super -rich get richer and richer.

Listen to that hissing: The fuse is rapidly burning, warning us. Wake up before the rage explodes in your face. This firestorm is endangering America’s future. From forces outside, yes. But far more deadly, from deep within our collective psyche. We have lost our moral compass. We are self-destructing.

Crackpot warning? No. This warning comes from the elite International Monetary Fund. A recent IMF report looked at “the causes of the two major U.S. economic crises over the past 100 years, the Great Depression of 1929 and the Great Recession of 2007,” writes Rana Foroohar, an economics editor at Time magazine.

“There are two remarkable similarities in the eras that preceded these crises. Both saw a sharp increase in income inequality and household-debt-to-income ratios.” And in each case, “as the poor and middle-class were squeezed, they tried to cope by borrowing to maintain their standard of living.”

But the rich “got richer, by lending, and looked for more places to invest, bidding up securities that eventually exploded in everyone’s face. In both eras, financial deregulation and loose monetary policies played roles in creating the bubble. But inequality itself — and the political pressure not to reverse it, but to hide it — was a crucial factor in the meltdown. The shrinking middle isn’t a symptom of the downturn. It’s the source of it.” Today the consequences of the meltdown still haunt us — there’s more to come.

Comment by GH
2011-08-16 09:47:39

Taxes are a smoke screen.

The rich are getting rich because they sell to credit worthy Americans and hire third world cheap labor.

Our middle class is dying because our jobs are being sent overseas and our wages are being depressed.

 
Comment by 2banana
2011-08-16 09:48:59

1. To socialists - anyone making $40,000+ a year is “super rich” and should be taxed more. Just look at the history of Social Security or the Income Tax. Both we sold and passed as “taxes on the super rich”

2. There is not ONE rioter that would have stayed home if tax rates on the “rich” were 55% instead of 52% (or whatever).

3. But the rich “got richer, by lending, and looked for more places to invest, bidding up securities that eventually exploded in everyone’s face.

AND THE BEING BAILED OUT BY THE GOVERNMENT. STOP THE BAILOUTS.

Nobody gets mad at the super rich that give us products and services we desire (Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, etc.). But we HATE the blood suckers on Wall Street that provide NOTHING and want taxpayer bailouts for their own reckless choices.

STOP THE BAILOUTS. STOP TARP. STOP THE STIMULUS.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-08-16 10:31:00

To socialists - anyone making $40,000+ a year is “super rich”

It might take a brilliant mind to make up such a moronic line but it would definitely be a hindrance to those trying to believe it.

Comment by GH
2011-08-16 11:24:52

But, 250k is definitely “super rich” (caviar dreams, mansions by the beach, leer jets and the best of everything?)

Last I heard Obama was trying to get the health insurance deduction for small businesses and individuals reversed, which sounds like a huge tax increase on small business and middle class individuals.

Contrary to popular opinion tax rates over $100k are VERY high. My OT was taxed at a rate of 56% when I passed 40 hours a few years back so I opted to just work 8 hours. Too bad really because I could have saved a lot more for the bad times to come…

I would look at taxing not upper middle income individuals but why BP, Exxon, GE etc don’t pay diddly here in the US, and perhaps a 100% tax on the retail value of imported manufactured goods to encourage the return of our jobs, but trust me raising taxes sounds like a piece of cake but will no where.

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Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-08-16 11:40:14

“Last I heard Obama was trying to get the health insurance deduction for small businesses and individuals reversed,”

link?

 
Comment by GH
2011-08-16 13:15:26

The tax credit “suggestion” was on TV news last week, however I have heard nothing more of it, so probably not the case…

 
Comment by The_Overdog
2011-08-16 13:53:59

My family’s taxable income was over $100k last year, my wife and I have no deductions beyond a $150k house (i have school loans, but they are not deductible above a certain income ~ around $70k I think), and our federal tax effective rate was 12.5%. In short, I disagree and I know your OT is not taxed at a 56% rate when considering taxes that Obama is responsible for.

 
Comment by The_Overdog
2011-08-16 14:00:47

Maybe including any applicable state taxes you get up to 56%, but I seriously doubt that too. I think it is more likely that you either aren’t very good at calculating your taxes or that you are not telling the truth.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2011-08-16 10:35:30

“as the poor and middle-class were squeezed, they tried to cope by borrowing to maintain their standard of living”

Here is a point of disagreement. I’ve watched people borrow to live above the standard they previously had my whole life. Those who have ruined themselves with debt naturally blame those who have not done so.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-16 11:11:30

I’ve tried to avoid borrowing money, unless it was absolutely necessary. A mortgage, a car payment, one/two school loans, one Visa card, a gas card, couple of others here and there.

Because I haven’t stuck my neck out, the stagnant income/prices going up deal has been apparant to me for some time.

I don’t think “cheap” debt happened by coincidence. It was partially designed to keep the sheeple from rioting over the loss of purchasing power that was going into the pockets of the financial industry.

Comment by GH
2011-08-16 11:26:11

I would definitely agree. Of course in the long term we now have a bigger problem on our hands…

I really believe this is all off-shoring coming home to roost.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2011-08-16 12:09:21

I agree too, but I think that as a whole society, borrowning to the max caused these other problems, or allowed them to go unchecked.

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Comment by Happy2bHeard
2011-08-16 09:48:23

So here are all of those invent yourself a job, follow your dream types who are finding out it isn’t as easy as working for the man.

I know a few crafters who sell at the local farmers markets. Most of them have spouses who work with benefits. Some are retired with pensions, Social Security, or 401K savings to contribute income. None of them are making a full time living.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2015920158_planbcareer16.html

“Plan B, it turns out, is a lot harder than it seems. But that hasn’t stopped cubicle captives from fantasizing.

In recent years, a wave of white-collar professionals has seized on a moribund job market, a swelling enthusiasm for all things artisanal and the growing sense that work should have meaning to cut ties with the corporate grind and chase second careers as chocolatiers, bed-and-breakfast proprietors and organic farmers.

Since the dawn of the Great Recession, more Americans have started businesses (565,000 of them a month in 2010) than at any period in the last decade and a half, according to the Kauffman Foundation, which tracks statistics on entrepreneurship in the United States.

The lures are obvious: freedom, fulfillment. But career switchers have found that going solo comes with its own pitfalls: a steep learning curve, no security, physical exhaustion and emotional meltdowns.

The dream job is a “job” as much as it is a “dream.”

“The decision to become an entrepreneur should not be made lightly,” said Paul Bernard, an executive coach in New York. The media, he said, has made heroes out of former investment bankers and lawyers who transformed themselves into successful dog-jewelry designers and cupcake kings.

“But the reality is that, even during boom times, most new businesses fail.”

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2011-08-16 10:18:50

Yeah, the media makes heroes out of just enough of them to ensure there’s an endless supply.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-08-16 11:30:28

I have a friend who for a few years tried his hand at a his own mom-n-pop espresso and gellato shop, without quitting the day job. He eventually gave up, and I know it broke his heart.

 
Comment by Elanor
2011-08-16 11:45:30

I’m one of those who has dreamed of being an organic farmer. From time to time, I surf around looking at farmland for sale. It has to have a good fresh water supply and some wooded land (sorry, central Illinois!). For now, I satisfy my desire to grow things by converting, bit by bit, my 0.2 acres of suburban lawn (which includes house, driveway and patio) into garden. That’s enough to learn a valuable lesson: growing enough vegetables to feed yourself isn’t all that easy when you have pests, diseases and capricious weather attacking your crops. I have a great respect for successful farmers. It is relentless hard work.

Comment by combotechie
2011-08-16 13:19:00

The commune movement of the Sixties turned to be not all they were represented to be.

The term “self sufficient” included the necessity of having at least one member get a job at a grocery store so he/she could steal food from the store to supplement the needs of the commune.

I met a guy in the mid-Eighties that lived in communes in the Sixties and he filled me in on some of the various reasons why the communes he was involved in didn’t work. Getting enough to eat was one of them.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2011-08-16 12:11:18

Some people these days are even flouting the law by making preserves in their very own home kitchens and then illegaly selling it. I guess that’s what happens when the government allows itself to be overtaken by corporate influences. If you make it impossible for small companies to legally compete, then they will do it illegaly.

 
Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 13:54:59

“Since the dawn of the Great Recession, more Americans have started businesses …”

..because they were laid off, not because they had some Dream. This isn’t rocket science, folks.

And yes, homesteading is NOT all it’s cracked up to be. At least 75% of the text of the Little House books relates to growing hunting cooking preserving eating food — including entire chapters on building fires, digging wells, and hauling wood and water. In the 20 years covered in the books, they never made a single wheat crop.

In modern times there would be somewhat less work because of refrigeration, freezing and fossil-fuel stoves, but growing is not much different.

My eventual Oil City plan will have plenty of exits strategies. If all else fails I’ll live off the local Wal-Mart.

Comment by GrizzlyBear
2011-08-16 20:18:10

I think I’d rather kill myself than live off Walmart.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-16 17:05:39

I’d be the first to tell you that starting a business and keeping it going isn’t easy.

Want to know what’s especially difficult to deal with? Keeping your expenses down. Because you need to squirrel away money for taxes, insurance, retirement (or taking six months off for a trip around the world if retirement bores you).

Matter of fact, I just finished reading a book recommending that freelancers save 30% of their income.

Comment by Awaiting
2011-08-16 19:14:36

That’s if you have any income. Our business is on life support.

 
 
Comment by rms
2011-08-16 21:13:53

The dream ends with the NSF returned check.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-16 09:48:37

Merkel, Sarkozy Propose Eurozone Government- AP

The leaders of France and Germany are pushing all 17 nations that use the euro to enshrine balanced budgets in their constitutions and want greater collective governance of the eurozone.

Comment by Big V
2011-08-16 12:01:10

Hahahah. “Greater collective governance”? The Eurozone is falling apart, not getting stronger. Hey, did Greece ever start paying back that debt? What about Iceland? Funny how we never got a followup on any of that. Greater collective governance. Teehee.

 
Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2011-08-16 12:50:19

And when Germany finds that its trading partners are forced to stop buying stuff because of their balanced budget requirements?

The Euro allowed trade imbalances without those pesky exchange rates annoyingly gumming up the works. The trade imbalances created a lot of money (oh, and debt, as if the debt is optional rather than a manditory offsetting counterparty of money creation).

Take away the ability to run trade deficits, and the Euro becomes moot.

 
 
Comment by measton
2011-08-16 09:48:54

Pay Pal founder and early Facebook investor Peter Thiel has given $1.25 million to an initiative to create floating libertarian countries in international waters. To be built on oil rig platforms.

1. Question how much gold can you load on an oil platform??

2. I’m guessing this will be a new corporate tax haven, I’m surprised they haven’t done this already.

3. Why off the coast of the US? Why not Somalia ?

4. Is this where corporate titans will go to escape the starving angry mobs?

Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-08-16 10:40:04

Here’s your chance, libertarians! Free yourself from the society created and controlled by the republicrats, and enjoy freedom on a nearby (close to shopping and hospitals in the real world) oil rig.

Make a great sitcom- but it’ll probably end up as a reality series.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-16 11:02:02

“Housewives of Offshore Rig #6″

 
Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 13:57:31

“(close to shopping and hospitals in the real world)”

+10. They only pretend that they don’t like government.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-08-16 11:27:36

Living on an oil rig … that sounds like the good life!

Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-16 17:07:16

It sure is — if you like working 12-hour shifts. And living with the ever-present danger of a blowout.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2011-08-16 11:58:57

We’ll see how long these sovereign nations last. They will need a lot more than $1.25 MM to protect themselves against the libertarian thieves who will be inviting themselves to the party.

 
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2011-08-16 14:51:16

Hurricanes could make things very interesting.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-16 09:53:48

Employers turn to tests to weed out job seekers
Some screens may violate law, but applicants rarely have choice
(AP)

Personality tests are being used by companies inundated with resumes in this tough job market to prune the endless job applications they get. But they could be discriminatory.

Here’s a sampling of questions from an online personality test that CVS Caremark, the pharmacy chain, was giving to potential candidates. The questions send up legal red flags. The applicants had to answer whether they agreed or disagreed with the statements.

People do a lot of things that make you angry.
There’s no use having close friends; they always let you down.
Many people cannot be trusted.
You are unsure of what to say when you meet someone.

After hearing from several applicants, the Rhode Island ACLU filed a complaint with the state Commission for Human Rights, which found “probable cause” that the CVS test was in fact discriminatory, said Steven Brown, the organization’s executive director. Last month, the company settled the case and agreed to remove the problematic questions. (CVS did not respond to a request for comment.)

The CVS case could be the tip of an iceberg. The growing use of such tests so early in the hiring process is relatively uncharted ground, and could hurt people with mental disorders, depending on the questions asked, legal and human resource experts note.

“There’s an increase in the use of these tests to weed people out because of the Internet,” said Gavin Appleby, an attorney with Littler Mendelson, one of the nation’s largest employment and labor law firms representing management.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-08-16 10:38:58

Ya just gotta know the right answers.

People do a lot of things that make you angry.

At myself.

There’s no use having close friends; they always let you down.

That’s why you need more of them.

Many people cannot be trusted.

With your wife.

You are unsure of what to say when you meet someone.

It depends on what they are thinking.

Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-08-16 11:45:58

Awesome! Now I got a cheat sheet.

 
 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-16 11:00:08

Everybody knows what answer the HR types are looking for on these tests…….answering the questions to make it look like you are the jolly, never makes waves, always upbeat, do anything for the customer type.

IOW, people who don’t mind lying to get a job.

 
Comment by 2banana
2011-08-16 11:15:48

The voices in my head tell me…

 
Comment by Elanor
2011-08-16 11:32:03

Discriminatory against whom? Sociopaths?

 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2011-08-16 13:24:13

“could hurt people w/mental disorders…..”

Please don’t fight for me Commission for Human Rights. I really do like the people running the store to have a clue. After all they have to make the right decisions when customers w/mental disorders have to be talked down.

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2011-08-16 19:03:34

I am a card-carrying ACLU member not because I believe in everything they do - I detest many of their positions - but because no one out there is battling for our vanishing civil liberties. Certainly not most of the so-called Tea Party candidates like Michelle Bachmann who backed the Patriot Act.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-16 10:23:24

Home Depot Raises Forecast on Higher Profit (Bloomberg)

Home Depot Inc. the largest U.S. home improvement retailer, raised its full-year profit forecast after second-quarter profit exceeded analysts’ estimates, spurred by increased traffic and spending by customers.

Net income advanced 14 percent to $1.36 billion, or 86 cents a share, in the quarter ended July 31, from $1.19 billion, or 72 cents, a year earlier, the Atlanta-based company said today in a statement. Analysts projected 82 cents, the average of 21 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

Home Depot, led by Chief Executive Officer Frank Blake, boosted the number of transactions by 1.1 percent to 373 million, the sixth increase in the past seven quarters. Lawn and garden sales rebounded from rainy, colder-than-average temperatures in the first quarter, boosting sales from older stores more than analysts had projected.

Customer visits “tend to build like a snowball rolling down a hill as an improved customer service experience on one visit emboldens that consumer to come back in the future,” Christopher Horvers, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, wrote today in a note to clients. He rates Home Depot as “overweight.”

Comment by Big V
2011-08-16 11:55:49

It’s because all those brand-spankin new homes built recently are already falling apart.

Comment by Pete
2011-08-16 15:57:51

“It’s because all those brand-spankin new homes built recently are already falling apart.”

And older ones that folks can’t sell right now–they will at least try to keep it liveable. As for the mention of customer service at Home Depot in the article….While I always *eventually* get the help I need, even if it means “we don’t carry that”, I haven’t been impressed when trying to get advice/help. Doesn’t seem the fault of the employees. Most are very young, and just don’t know enough to advise you, let alone find a product. Just takes a long time to find the right person, who is usually very busy.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-16 17:09:16

I haven’t been impressed when trying to get advice/help. Doesn’t seem the fault of the employees. Most are very young, and just don’t know enough to advise you, let alone find a product. Just takes a long time to find the right person, who is usually very busy.

I’d never look for advice in a Home Depot. ‘Cause most of their sales droids don’t know squat about what the store’s selling. They only know enough to tell you what aisle something is in.

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Comment by wmbz
2011-08-16 10:30:03

Jon Stewart: Why is Everyone Still Ignoring Ron Paul?

In Iowa’s Ames Straw Poll this weekend, Michele Bachmann bested 2nd place Ron Paul by less than 200 votes. And yet, in the immediate spin cycle at least, pundits talked about Rick Perry, Mitt Romney and Bachmann. Paul seemed to be, as his supporters always point out, invisible. Last night on The Daily Show, Jon Stewart became the latest to weigh in on the habit of ignoring Paul. After playing a few highlight reels showing anchors going out of their way not to mention the libertarian firebrand, he incredulously asks: “How did libertarian Ron Paul become the 13th floor in a hotel?”

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/entertainment/2011/08/jon-stewart-ron-paul/41311/

Comment by Real Estate Refugee
2011-08-16 11:31:52

If anyone wants to mess with Fox News, vote in their straw poll. RP is waaaay ahead of the pack. It’s down on the right side of the page.

http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/americas-newsroom/index.html

Comment by Al
2011-08-16 12:18:33

Done.

RP has 74.79% (20,299/27,140) of the votes as of 3:15 PM eastern time.

Some Rick Perry guy is in second with 16.87%.

 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2011-08-16 13:12:54

Done! And at the time I voted RP was blowing the rest out of the water.

Pretty soon they’ll just leave him entirely off the list though.

So I think if RP proponents want to mess with the media sharks, they’re gonna need a bigger boat.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2011-08-16 11:50:02

How does Michelle Bachmann best anyone? The woman has twenty foster kids. It seems the Republican party these days will do anything to present a woman as a candidate. It seems that women who believe in Republicanism who aren’t cooks are hard to come by.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-16 10:35:34

Import Prices in U.S. Rise 0.3%, Led by Gains in Costs of Fuel, Clothing
(Bloomberg)

Prices of goods imported into the U.S. rose in July, led by gains in costs of fuel, industrial supplies and clothing.

The 0.3 percent gain in the import-price index followed a revised 0.6 percent drop in June, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists projected a 0.1 percent decrease for July, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Prices excluding petroleum rose 0.2 percent.

Slowing growth in emerging economies such as China and Brazil, coupled with weakening demand in the U.S. amid political gridlock and stock declines, means import prices are likely to taper off this month. Federal Reserve policy makers last week said they expected inflation to “settle” lower as commodity price gains “dissipate further.”

“While we’re still importing a good amount of price pressures from the faster-growing emerging economies, that trend has tempered in recent months,” said Lindsey Piegza, an economist at FTN Financial in New York. “Core prices remain well contained, giving the Fed additional room to maintain their current level of accommodation.”

Comment by combotechie
2011-08-16 11:35:54

“While we’re still importing a good amount of price pressure from the faster-growing emerging economies, that trend has tempered in recent months.”

Gee, I wonder why?

It wouldn’t have anything to do with money flow, would it? As in we slow our borrowing-and-spending behavior and hence emerging production-based economies are forced to cut back their production because they are short of customers with money?

 
Comment by Big V
2011-08-16 11:43:30

Slowing growth in emerging economies such as China and Brazil, coupled with weakening demand in the U.S. amid political gridlock and stock declines

Gee, those sure are a lot of coincidences, to happen all at once and all together like that, as if they were related.

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2011-08-16 11:14:24

What a clueless administration.

—————–

Obama Ag Secretary Vilsack: Food Stamps Are A Stimulus

Obama’s Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack: “Well, obviously, it’s putting people to work. Which is why we’re going to have some interesting things in the course of the forum this morning. Later this morning, we’re going have a press conference with Secretary Mavis and Secretary Chu to announce something that’s never happened in this country — something that we think is exciting in terms of job growth. I should point out, when you talk about the SNAP program or the foot stamp program, you have to recognize that it’s also an economic stimulus. Every dollar of SNAP benefits generates $1.84 in the economy in terms of economic activity. If people are able to buy a little more in the grocery store, someone has to stock it, package it, shelve it, process it, ship it. All of those are jobs. It’s the most direct stimulus you can get in the economy during these tough times.”

Comment by wmbz
2011-08-16 11:46:47

It is certainly pathetic when “public officials” appear to be proud more folks are on welfare.Telling folks they are really helping the economy, so how about we all get SNAP cards, 300 plus million on food stamps should really rev things up! The dupes will vote for their same masters again though.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-16 11:27:40

It’s a Technical Mess All Over the World: Yamada
By Matt Nesto | Breakout

As markets around the world put the brakes on a nascent comeback rally after only 3 sessions, legendary chart analyst Louise Yamada says it’s a technical mess all over the world. “We are at a critical juncture right now,” warns Yamada. Be it the BRICs, other Emerging Markets, or Europe, Yamada says “all of them have come into long-term sell signals” with the exception of Japan, Thailand, Jakarta, and a few U.S. markets.

As if the debt concerns out of Greece, Italy, and France weren’t enough, word comes today that the global slowdown is hitting Europe’s largest and most stable economy: Germany. The country reported a weaker than expected second-quarter GDP rate of 0.1%, compared to 1.3% in Q1.

“Germany was the strongest market and it had a very severe setback…and went right to the bottom of the 2010 support,” says Yamada. “So any further decline there and you bring into question whether the market goes to the 2009 lows.”

In the case of the Germany’s benchmark DAX (^GDAXI), that would be a fall to about 3600, nearly 40% below current levels. The index has suffered a 16% drop in August alone.

Another global powerhouse is also in question. Yamada points out that Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (^HSI) is at the same ”critical juncture.” Right now it sits at 2010 support levels and is now looking at the possibility of a further 40% support gap back to its 2009 trough.

But before you race off in search of a safe haven, Yamada says it’s best to wait for some clear confirmation that the global downtrend has reversed. Until that happens, “rallies would be best used to lighten some positions.”

Comment by Big V
2011-08-16 11:40:09

The problem, obviously, is that workers in these countries are earning more than $3/day. The solution is for the corporate elite to wring this excess greed out of the labor market and bring Germany to its knees, along with the United States of course.

Three dollars a day for evvvryone.

I won’t be happy until that lady in charge of Germany is tied to a railroad track and made to sign a maximum-wage law.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2011-08-16 11:37:49

Hey!

Did you guys miss me?

What do you think the F-word GSEs will do with their shadow inventory now that their credit has been downgraded?

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-16 12:16:16

Welcome back!, …where ya been?

America AA+, …day 11 :-)

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-16 17:12:04

What do you think the F-word GSEs will do with their shadow inventory now that their credit has been downgraded?

They might be a wee bit more motivated to sell.

If the Frauddie Mac place up the street is any indication, they might even cut the grass now and then. The Bermuda Grass at that place just got a crewcut. Which is more attention than it’s gotten in years.

 
 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2011-08-16 11:41:14

One of the many reasons why higher education is so expensive:

Coaches’ Pay

At the top of the Rutgers scale, football coach Greg Schiano made $2.03 million including bonuses for the fiscal year ended in June, according to the school. The 45-year-old Schiano won 59 games and lost 63 in 10 seasons, including a 4-1 record in postseason bowl games.

While Schiano’s compensation isn’t out of line among football coaches, it compares with an average of $142,000 for full professors, $96,000 for associate professors and $49,000 for nontenure-track instructors, according to the professors union.

Donald Siegel, 48, teaches introductory chemistry at Rutgers for about $70,000 a year, he says. Under the professors union’s 2007 contract, he was eligible for raises of as much as 17 percent over four years, but because of the salary freeze he got 3.75 percent, he says. He and his wife just bought their first house after 20 years of renting, he says.

Schiano’s Home Loan

“Athletics programs are always a net loss, and every economic study that’s been done says that it brings in donations, but it costs more than the donations it brings in,” Siegel said in an interview. “It’s much bigger than it should be, and Schiano’s salary is totally ridiculous. But the real problem is the administration is top-heavy.” He said he resents football spending less than other examples of waste.

Under the terms of Schiano’s contract, Rutgers sold the football coach 0.86 acre (0.34 hectare) in nearby Piscataway and spent $142,185 preparing the lot. The university then loaned him $800,000 interest-free for construction of his house. Each year he stays on, Rutgers forgives $100,000 of the balance, which was down to $400,000 as of this year, Miranda said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-16/rutgers-boosting-athletics-at-expense-of-academics-fails-to-emulate-texas.html

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2011-08-16 12:41:50

Coaches pay is funded through ticket sales and tv rights.

There are many reasons education is expensive, most involving “because they can charge that much”, but it is not the paychecks of the coaches.

Comment by CarrieAnn
2011-08-16 13:09:21

You may be right but that is not what the article said at all. You have to read on toward the end.

 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-16 13:23:51

Yeah, but all those shiny new facilities they insist on having to remain “competitive” get billed to Joe Q Taxpayer.

We have a bubble in college and pro athletics, IMO.

With the idiot taxpayer picking up the tab for all the major capital expenditures. And for the training programs for all those football and basketball players.

Yeah, as an eighteen year old, you can run the risk of being blown up in Afghanistan, but you can’t play pro football or basketball, or buy a beer.

If all of these pro franchise owners were in favor of “free-markets”, they would make all of their players free agents, and let 18 year olds go straight to the pros. And quit blackmailing taxpayers into paying for stadiums. In exchange, we’ll let them more their franchises wherever they want.

I’d really like to know what a 6-pack of Budweiser would cost, if all of the advertising costs were deducted. About a buck-fifty, would be my guess. :)

Comment by The_Overdog
2011-08-16 14:04:19

Just curious, are 18 year olds allowed to do your job? They aren’t allowed to do mine.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-16 14:42:52

On paper, yes. An 18 year old can get an A&P.

And frankly, you need some skinny 18 year olds to be able to crawl into some of the places that need worked on, in some of these airplanes. Bring up the “Dirty Jobs” episode, where they crawl into the wings/fuel cells of the USAF tankers, for an example.

But no, there isn’t an 18 year old in the country that can do what I do. If there was, he wouldn’t be working in aviation.

It ain’t bragging, if you can back it up.

At the risk of outing myself to the local people in the business…..

-20 years @ OEM Service Center….3 yeas as crew chief, last 9 years as foreman/supervisor.

-Director of Maintenance on companies flying C-650, C-750, G200, Falcon 20-5, Falcon 900 (currently).

-FSI/Simuflite/Factory training on following:
-Cessna 500 550 560 series, 525 series, Citation III-VII, Citation X, Falcon 20, Falcon 900, G-200.
-Dabbled a little on the HS-125/Hawker 800XP
-Line maintenance training/experience and Major inspection experience on FJ44, JT15, TFE731, RR3007C, PW300 engines, Garrett and Sundstrand APUs
-Rockwell Collins Proline 21, Honeywell SPZ-8000, Primus 2000, others.
-Advanced Composites Repair training.

 
Comment by The_Overdog
2011-08-16 15:04:13

I’m not doubting your experience, I just think you are discounting the abilities of pro sports players to suggest that 18 year olds can do their jobs. Maybe a few can, but most can’t.

i don’t think it’s anti-free market to put age and skill limitations on jobs. I also don’t think it’s blackmail that owners request that local areas foot some of the cost for arenas- if they are built in the correct locations, they defintitely drive tax revenues to the areas around them. Of course, if the taxpayers say “NO” and the team leaves, who gives a flip? Seattle seems to be doing just fine without their NBA team.

i don’t disagree there is a sports bubble and college cost bubble, but i don’t think that the athletic programs are driving those bubbles. I would say most sports programs cost their university (as opposed to being money makers), but not that much.

I think the cost of college is due to the fact that almost none of it can be outsourced. It reflects the true cost of the American experice right now - including the pointless excess of fancy new buildings and luxury amenitites - what America would cost if we couldn’t easily export our labor on illegal immigrants and to developing countries.

 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-16 17:48:37

We need more MITs, and fewer “The U’s”

“Maybe a few can”

And that’s my point. There are a few that can. But right now, the universities/taxpayers are picking up the tab for weeding out the ones that “can’t”.

My brother played for a Big 12 school…..the whole
“student athlete” fable is a joke. My brother used to tell me one of his teammates was telling everyone his major was “Right Tackle”. Everybody gets to make a fortune off this scam, except the kids. Especially those who don’t really have a chance to play pro.

You have whole herds of “administrators” making six-figure salaries, who wouldn’t have jobs if it were not for the kids, who get a degree in some marginally useful discipline like “Sports History”. And have to sign up for a vow of poverty while doing so.

I’m sure that you could have a sports scandal a week, if the media was doing their job. But like the administrators, their livelihood depends on the kids. nobody in media is going to rock the boat, unless they get hit over the head with it.

If you are getting the idea that I think most of the major institutions in the US are fundamentally corrupt, you’d be right.

 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-16 17:52:31

Want to find a sports scandal? Go to the nicest strip club nearest the Big-Time University, and look for all the 18-22 year old athletic looking guys hanging around with the old rich guy who’s making it rain.

Follow the money.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 11:47:04

Can’t say how this debt crisis will end, but I will predict that international investment banks with too-big-to-fail operations will reap the yield from a few more central bank bailouts before it is over.

Debt Crisis Threatens to Taint Broader Economy
By JACK EWING
Published: August 16, 2011

FRANKFURT — Europe’s sovereign debt crisis threatened to spill over into the broader economy as official figures released Tuesday showed that growth in the euro zone fell to its lowest rate in two years. Germany — the Continent’s powerhouse — slowed almost to a standstill.

All of Europe’s main stock indexes lost ground after the data suggested that the debt and economic problems in countries like Greece and Italy were infecting the rest of the 17-country euro zone. The debt crisis has led a number of governments to sharply cut spending, while creating market turmoil that has damaged business and consumer confidence.

Gross domestic product in the euro zone rose a mere 0.2 percent in the second quarter of 2011 from the first quarter, when growth had advanced by a healthy 0.8 percent, according to Eurostat, the E.U. statistics agency. Quarterly economic growth across the 17-nation euro zone was the slowest since mid-2009.

G.D.P. growth in Germany, which has been the tractor hauling the rest of Europe, barely budged, rising only 0.1 percent from the previous quarter, when the economy had expanded a robust 1.3 percent, the German Federal Statistical Office said. Quarter-on-quarter growth in the three months through June was well below forecasts of 0.5 percent.

The German figures come after data released on Friday showed that the French economy was at a standstill in the second quarter, leaving Europe’s two largest economies barely growing.

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2011-08-16 12:39:25

Let me see if I can rewrite this.

Morons not understanding that money is an IOU that is borrowed into existance as the result of a trade imbalance are shocked to learn that trade imbalances can not continue once max debt is reached.

They fear the debt may not be repaid, without realizing that there is a single solution to that problem that avoids default, reverse the trade imbalance.

Reverse the trade imbalance so the debt can be repaid, or the debt will default and the money that you worked so hard for will vanish into the thin-air from which it was borrowed.

There are no other choices.

 
 
Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2011-08-16 11:59:30

I wish I would have bought me some of the Evergreen Solar at 60 a share.

CNBC anchor ranting about how stupid it is to give tax payer money to these companies, then just let them be destroyed by cheap Chinease imports. You have to protect your investments.

Ummmmm…

Hey moron! Protect our markets from cheap foreign imports, and you wouldn’t NEED tax payer money to build these companies in the first freakin’ place.

Comment by measton
2011-08-16 15:15:06

BINGO

But they care not about this country, we are the goose that laid the golden egg and by god they are going to strangle that last golden egg out of us.

 
Comment by Ken Best
2011-08-16 15:32:33

Stop buying things that are “Made In China”.

Comment by Big V
2011-08-16 23:03:43

Sure Ken, the choice of the individual can somehow override national policy. Not.

 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-16 17:37:48

More evidence that the government should not be in the business of choosing winners.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-16 12:38:54

Man Charged With ‘Using’ Treasury Secretary’s Account to Pay Off Mortgage. By Mike Levine August 16, 2011 | FoxNews.com

As the nation’s financial system collapsed and millions of Americans struggled to pay off their home mortgages in 2009, a Maryland man now under investigation allegedly wiped away his $353,000 mortgage debt by convincing financial giant CitiGroup to accept a money order purportedly backed by then-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson.

The one-of-a-kind ruse amazingly worked, current and former law enforcement officials told Fox News.

According to court documents filed in the case, 35-year-old Bryan Gardner of Waldorf, Md., sent CitiMortgage a $353,000 money order in January 2009 and indicated that it would be his final payment for a property in nearby Bowie, Md.

The money order stated it was “drawn on the account of ‘Secretary of the Treasury Henry M. Paulson, Jr.,’” and Gardner signed it as Paulson’s “Authorized Representative,” the court documents allege.

“CitiMortgage erroneously accepted the document and credited Gardner’s mortgage account in full,” according to a Secret Service affidavit.

Within months, Gardner sold the property for $254,900 and then “distributed the proceeds to others,” according to public records and the Secret Service affidavit. Investigators believe Gardner may have initially secured the mortgage under false pretenses.

Through a spokesman, an FBI agent who investigates mortgage fraud said he was surprised the scheme succeeded, and a former Justice Department official who helped lead fraud enforcement efforts in the wake of the financial meltdown agreed, calling the approval of the money order “bizarre.”

“I’ve never heard of a case where a mortgage for such a large amount was satisfied with a fraudulent instrument — an instrument that’s so on-its-face fraudulent,” said Paul Pelletier, who until a few months ago was a top-ranking official in the Justice Department’s Fraud Section. “You’d be amazed at how many people try and pass off (fraudulent) stuff. But does it ever work? No, it rarely works.”

In fact, Gardner’s alleged scheme didn’t work the first time he tried. In November 2008, two months before his successful attempt, Gardner sent a nearly identical money order to CitiMortgage, but it was rejected, according to the Secret Service. The only difference the second time around: Gardner requested slightly more money, court documents say.

Pelletier said this case is “extraordinarily unusual” not only because CitiMortgage ultimately honored a fraudulent money order, but the company allowed it to be credited to Gardner’s mortgage and likely issued a “satisfaction” on the mortgage, as reflected by Gardner’s ability to sell the property.

A CitiGroup spokesman said he was limited in the details he could offer about the case.

 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2011-08-16 13:05:29

Does it make one wealthier if the mortgage/rent from the bank payment covers your place on “Rockefeller Road”?

Where the heck is Niles anyway?

Ohhh…haha! Auburn. That lake in the background is perhaps Skaneateles.

To make it all the more curious, this little $975k gem is only a 2 bedroom. At least I could afford the taxes. Probably because you don’t get Skaneatles schools.

Retirement home for retiring vampire squid employees?

http://cnyhomes.com/Listing/Search/info.cgi?mlnum=S258165

 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-16 13:24:29

Coastal Lumber Co. closing, hundreds let go
Associated Press, 08.16.11,

CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. — Coastal Lumber Co. said Tuesday that it was going out of business, laying off more than 350 people in West Virginia and three other states.

In a statement to customers and suppliers, the Charlottesville, Va.-based company blamed the “prolonged downturn” in the economy and the company’s inability to obtain financing for a plan to keep it afloat. But the statement said that the company is still pursuing alternative financing in hopes of resuming its business.

Coastal Lumber said the layoffs were the deepest in West Virginia, where the company employed nearly 200 in five locations. It also employed 67 workers in North Carolina, 68 in Pennsylvania, six executives in Virginia and 30 companywide in sales, accounting, clerical and transportation.

In the statement, Coastal Lumber said it had pursued a new business plan, but its bank would not support its proposed reorganization.

“Instead, it asked Coastal’s owners to make certain concessions that they were not willing to make,” the statement said of the bank. The company was unable to immediately secure new financing, which led them to close the locations Friday.

The company declined further comment.

Comment by liz pendens
2011-08-16 16:48:24

Jobs? Who needs jobs? They might get in the way of the recovery.

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2011-08-16 19:06:52

B…b…but the recovery is starting to take hold! All the Obama lapdogs in the financial media said so.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-16 13:29:18

Heat pops pipes nationwide; brace for higher bills

(CNN) — Critical water pipelines are breaking from coast to coast, triggered by this summer’s record high temperatures. It’s not a phenomenon or coincidence, experts say. It’s a clear sign that Americans should brace for more water interruptions, accompanied by skyrocketing water bills.

The heat wave of the past few weeks has burst hundreds of crucial pipes in California, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Indiana, Kentucky and New York, temporarily shutting off water to countless consumers just when they needed it most.

“It’s one of the worst summers,” said Debbie Ragan of Oklahoma City’s Utilities Department. As days of 100 degree-plus temperatures bake the region, the utility reports 685 water main breaks since July alone. That’s an estimated rate of four times normal. To keep up with repairs, Ragan said, workers have been putting in 12-to 16-hour shifts 24/7.

“It’s the heat and the high water usage,” Ragan said.

High temperatures can dry soil so that it shrinks away from buried pipes. Increased water usage raises pressure inside the water lines. Both factors add strain to pipeline walls, making older pipes more susceptible to bursting.

It underscores the fact that much of the nation’s underground water lines are 80 to 100 years old — and approaching the end of their lives.

Experts call it America’s “Replacement Era,” when hundreds of water utilities nationwide will be forced to replace their aging infrastructure — or suffer the consequences.

Who will probably have to pay for those hundreds of thousands of miles of new pipelines? Utility customers, industry experts say.

For towns like Kemp, Texas, population 1,150, the situation reached emergency levels this week.

A historic drought throughout Texas has left Kemp with what Mayor Donald Kile described as “cracks so big in the ground, you could lose a small dog in them.”

Fourteen major water line breaks August 7 emptied water towers and forced Kemp to shut off water service until Tuesday, officials said.

The mayor blamed the crisis on 80-year-old pipelines and high demand as temperatures rose above 100 degrees for 37 straight days.

Texas town turns off water, leaving residents boiling mad

It’s even worse in the Texas town of Robert Lee. The hellish heat has left its entire reservoir dry as a bone. Community leaders are considering trucking water in from elsewhere or laying a 12-mile pipeline to connect to water in a nearby town.

Get ready for more of the same, environmentalists say. Shifting climate change in the coming decades, they warn, will probably bring more droughts, record high temperatures and other weather conditions that will damage water infrastructure.

Comment by measton
2011-08-16 15:08:26

It underscores the fact that much of the nation’s underground water lines are 80 to 100 years old — and approaching the end of their lives.

OoOh I have a good idea for stimulus spending.

Instead of bailing out bankers put people to work fixing the Nations water lines.

or we could pump water and desalinate it. Again this would create jobs and take unproductive land and make it productive.

Nope Gov spending is always bad and never creates anything.

Question of the day

Which creates more jobs in the US and stimulates the velocity of money more.

Tax breaks for the top 0.1% or
Increased taxes on teh top 0.1% used to rebuild our crumbling infrastructure.

Comment by aNYCdj
2011-08-16 19:21:40

STOP IT Measton……..we’d all be crying tears of joy if OH Pelosi Boner and BerNakee agreed to do this

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-16 13:50:38

Wonder what the banks will do? Pass along the increase to their loyal customers?

Nicolas Sarkozy Just Announced Plans For A New Tax On Financial Transactions Joe Weisenthal | Aug. 16, 2011

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has expressed plans to introduce a “Tobin tax” in Europe: This means taxes on financial transactions, which is something the banks will hate.

Obviously we need details, but this is not minor news if it’s carried forth.

On the surface, we’d expect banks to scream bloody murder, but given that the whole point of this ongoing bailout exercise is to protect banks, it’s hard to imagine this being too damaging ultimately.

Nobel Laureate economist James Tobin was the first to propose this idea, originally envisioning this as a tax on currency transactions.

 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-16 14:16:55

How quickly the worm turns…..

Corporate/General Aviation has been dead since 2008. In 2009, went six months without getting a return call/interview.

Since May, I’ve been getting calls from employment agencies, inquiring on my availability. (would have been nice if these calls had started a month earlier…..)

My SIL, who got his A&P in late 2008, but until now hasn’t been able to find a mech job, because everybody wanted 5 years of experience.

Suddenly, he’s getting calls from multiple sources. Starting pay with no experience is the same as they were offering guys with 5-10 years experience 4 months ago.

In the meantime, work at the major shops is starting to stack up. I have a problem with my current a/c that needs specialist equipment and training. Soonest they can get to it is the first half of next week.

Whatta country. I can see it coming now.

This time next year, it will be damn near impossible to get anything done without scheduling it six months in advance. Nobody has parts, because all of the vendors have laid everyone off, or gone out of business.

Nobody has staff, because they have all been laid off, and the high skill 25-40 year olds have taken the opportunity to get into another line of business that pays better. Nobody getting into the business, because they can make more money working on KIAs, than they can by working on airplanes.

So, the “mandatory overtime” will start. This will work for a few weeks/months, but you can only go to that well so many times. In my experience, you can do it for about 4 weeks before the mistakes start happening. Then you waste your O/T hours on fixing mistakes, instead of progressing.

Guys don’t mind overtime to help out an AOG, or to work an unanticipated issue. They start getting pi$$ed when they have to work O/T weeks on end, because someone is trying to hit a revenue number, and they know the airplane’s schedule is screwed, even before it rolls in the door.

And then, you run into the management that thinks that “If an inspection takes ten guys ten hours to do, putting 100 guys on it means we can finish it in an hour…..”

Mark my words, by next spring, we’re going to hear of a couple of maintenance related “incidents”. And the bleats about “we can’t find anyone trained/qualified to do the job……”. So the lobbying will start to allow more maintenance work to be done in China/Mexico/Central America……

The idiots who run the show in this country have never figured out that, while money gives people an incentive to become realtors/mortgage brokers/banksters, the lack of money for the past 30 years has been a dis-incentive for people to either get into, or stay in, some pretty important, safety critical industries.

And why deal with the hassle, when other jobs pay more, or demand a lot less, or both? Pay scales have been so screwed for so long that a lot of people have adapted to the crap salaries, and can live on a lot less money.

Multiply this, by about every technical job done in the US of A.

If the Chinese were smart, they would offer every pilot with an ATP, and every A&P with 5 years of jet experience $100K/year, to move to China for 5 years. The US aviation business would be Tango-Uniform in 90 days.

Comment by Neuromance
2011-08-16 17:56:12

And then, you run into the management that thinks that “If an inspection takes ten guys ten hours to do, putting 100 guys on it means we can finish it in an hour…..”

It’s a well known fact to executive teams around the nation that while one pregnant woman will waste 9 months to deliver a child, having 9 pregnant women will reduce that time down to a month.

:)

Read also about the “Mythical Man Month”:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mythical_Man-Month

 
Comment by MightyMike
2011-08-16 18:00:30

Do you get paid time-and-a-half for the overtime? Also, what’s an AOG?

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-17 00:50:41

X-GSfixr-

My BIL works in Long Beach on GS’s, and he noted something similar, that GS’s were essentially parked, because those with $ didn’t want to be seen conspicuously consuming luxury, and they needed to let folks go…only to have the demand roar back within 6 months of letting folks go. Last I talked to him, they were very busy, but that was several months ago. Sounds like things got worse from then based on what you are saying.

My partner and I have been talking for years about how the push to “college educate” everyone has left a big hole in basic trade needs…today, there is a stereotype against being able to fix things mechanical. Trade schools seem to be bad words, when reality is that they are jobs that are needed, and will be in demand.

Comment by aNYCdj
2011-08-17 06:52:11

Exactly…..you would not believe how much money I’ve made by getting things Free on Craigslist fixing it up and reselling it.

The kids today are so clueless they have no idea even what a soldering iron is.

i dunno i plugged it in and it dont work……..

 
 
 
Comment by Muggy
2011-08-16 16:30:16

Combo, the shake-up I mentioned yesterday: there are often “regime changes” that happen in public education. People may think they’re on a track, or have a given career path, and then, BLAM, if someone from the top retires/dies/resigns,etc. unexpectedly the fallout can produce some interesting results. Smart people will seize opportunity, but people that aligned themselves based on the past, may not have noticed subtle changes and now find themselves aligned with the wrong crowd.

I’m laying low, but by default I will need to form a “crew” at the next level up. So far I am noticed for doing my job well, which is, and always was, the plan.

This is the kind of thing where 30+ year careers end overnight.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-16 17:19:30

Smart people will seize opportunity, but people that aligned themselves based on the past, may not have noticed subtle changes and now find themselves aligned with the wrong crowd.

Happened to the last boss I had in the last fulltime job that I had. She was in the innermost circles of the office in-crowd.

Then the Big Bossola announced his retirement. It made the local news five years ago. The people I worked with who I stayed in touch with predicted major changes at our former employer. And we were right. Details in the next paragraph:

Ms. Last Boss stayed on when the Big Bossola’s successor came in, and she tried hard to curry favor with him. But it didn’t work. So, she left Tucson to take a job in another state.

That didn’t work out either.

She’s back in Tucson, working in the same field that she was in, and guess who hired her in another organization? Big Bossola, who came out of retirement. One of the other senior people in this outfit is Big Bossola’s right-hand man.

 
Comment by combotechie
2011-08-16 20:49:19

Muggy, I fully understand. I see this where I work but as an observer, not a participant.

A lot of people hate unions but one of the things unions do is they institute formal rules. If there are no formal rules then what happens is whomever has the power sets his own rules, which means if you are affiliated with the power guy then you are in. If not then you are out.

It sucks, but nevertheless there it is.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 17:15:14

Campaign rhetoric is more interesting than usual this time around…

16 August 2011 Last updated at 19:35 ET

Rick Perry warns Fed’s Ben Bernanke against ‘treason’
Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry in Walcott, Iowa, on 16 August 2011 Rick Perry succeeded former President George W Bush as Texas governor

Republican presidential hopeful Rick Perry has been criticised by the White House over remarks he has made about the head of the US central bank.

The Texas governor said he would view it as “treasonous” if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke printed more cash between now and the 2012 election.

The White House accused him of threatening Mr Bernanke.

Mr Perry entered the race on Saturday for next year’s Republican nomination to challenge President Barack Obama.

The 61-year-old, who succeeded former President George W Bush as Texas governor in 2000, is tipped as a strong contender to be the party’s nominee.

‘Pretty ugly’

In his first three days as a presidential contender, he has already antagonised Democrats by implying that the US military does not respect Mr Obama as commander-in-chief.

On a campaign stop in the US state of Iowa on Monday, Mr Perry said: “If this guy [Ben Bernanke] prints more money between now and the election, I don’t know what y’all will do to him in Iowa, but we would treat him pretty ugly down in Texas.

“Printing more money to play politics at this particular time in American history is almost treacherous, treasonous in my opinion.”

Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-16 17:20:42

Foo on the campaign rhetoric. I’m looking for more slips of the tongue (”Corporations are people, my friends!”) and high-quality heckling.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-16 18:09:09

Putting on my Mr. Cynical hat again, he is correct.

The US armed forces are to the Republicans, as the public employee unions are to the Democrats.

We have a bunch of military types around here, USAF mainly. About 95% of them are loud and proud Republicans.

Pretty good deal for them. A war is a good chance to make some extra bucks, without much risk. Probably less than if they were working their day-jobs. And that 6 month TDY means plenty of party time.

Then there is the military-law enforcement connection. How many current police/law enforcement officers are former military, or has a parent in law enforcement? A bunch, probably a large majority. Fully 80% of my brother’s Border Patrol Acadamy were. Many of them literally got their discharge papers, and boarded the next flight to Artesia.

We’re basically developing our own set of Prussians.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 19:23:35

Can one of the more right-wingish HBB regulars kindly help me out? Because I cannot figure out if Perry is serious, or just trying to raise hell, kind of like when I ask at what point in history the party of Lincoln was overtaken by a band of wealthy white bigots? Though running the fiat printing press on high blast does seem like a convenient means to transfer wealth from American tax payers’ hands into banksters’ coffers, I would hardly equate the prospect of QE3 with treason. What am I missing?

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 22:45:44

CRICKETS

I guess it could be that Parry is a complete ignoramus when it comes to monetary policy. The treason remark certainly came out of left field. So far as I am aware, treason is a crime which is punishable by death. The term usually pertains to actions intended to overthrow the government, not to manage the economy in times of severe stress.

Let’s hope the American voter is not foolish enough to elect a complete moron to the White House.

As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.

— H.L. Mencken

 
 
 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 22:27:27

His story can’t hold a candle to that of celebrity real estate investor-turned FB Nicholas Cage.

HOMES
JULY 29, 2011

My Own Private Island
Wealthy buyers are flocking to a little-known archipelago in the Bahamas, fueling an island building boom. Privacy comes at a price: Owning a personal island means importing everything from water to electricity.
By CANDACE JACKSON

The real-estate bust did affect these shores, with islands sitting longer and often selling for lower prices. An unnamed, 681-acre island with an airstrip, a seven-bedroom, six-bathroom timber-frame main house, a gym and staff buildings has been on the market for $55 million for 2½ years. Earlier this month, it was offered in a sealed-bid auction. The listing broker, George Damianos, says two reasonable offers have been received, but a sale hasn’t been finalized.

One of the least expensive on the market now is Nicolas Cage’s former island, Leaf Cay, which remains completely undeveloped and is available for $8.5 million. At the top end of the market is Cave Cay, a 250-acre island priced at $110 million that has its own harbor and runway. Listing broker John Christie, of H.G. Christie, says there are several buildings on the property, some of which are not yet completed. He says it has been on the market for about a year and the sellers are open to offers for less than the listing price.

“It’s definitely a buyer’s market right now,” says Kevin Cross, a Nassau-based real-estate broker. But he and others say buyers are emerging. “We’re getting real buyers looking in the $30 million to $50 million price range,” says Mr. Christie.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 21:07:21

Who says government employees are all dummies?

Pierre de Fermat
1601 - 1665

Pierre de Fermat was a French lawyer and government official most remembered for his work in number theory; in particular for Fermat’s Last Theorem. He is also important in the foundations of the calculus.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 21:23:47

August 16, 2011, 1:15 PM ET

Behind the Numbers: Housing Starts Fall
By Robbie Whelan

The nation’s home builders are on pace to start 425,000 new single-family homes, which would work out to the lowest level added annually to the country’s inventory since the Census Bureau started tracking this data in 1959. Bad news, right?

It certainly is for publicly traded builders, which typically build about 1 in 5 new homes nationally. Low starts numbers probably indicate that the industry is reacting to weak demand. As the economy has gotten worse, families have doubled up, with younger generations staying at home instead of buying one.

Builders depend on a robust pipeline of new communities in development and orders for new homes. There’s also another jobs factor: home construction is a big employment sector, and fewer homes means fewer jobs for carpenters, window-framers, drywall-hangers and electricians. Already Wall Street is reacting to the Census numbers: the share prices of all but three of the nation’s 12 big builders were in the red as of mid-morning in New York Stock Exchange trading.

But suppose you’re just the average homeowner, concerned about your plummeting home value, the foreclosure crisis, and your neighborhood going to seed as more and more of your neighbors ditch their mortgage payments for cheaper rental houses or apartments. For you, falling housing starts are just fine. You don’t need any brand-spanking-new houses down the road, boosting local inventory and competing with your house when you decide to sell.

Already, the U.S. housing market has shown some signs of progress as far as burning through existing inventory, as fewer houses were listed for sale, probably because of delays in the foreclosure process.

And finally, if you’re an investor, looking for deals on foreclosed properties to buy and hold as rentals, Tuesday’s Census numbers are heartening because they show that demand for single-family homes as purchases is down, while demand for rentals may be on the rise.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 21:26:05

AUGUST 16, 2011, 10:57 A.M. ET

US Stocks Fall As Euro Zone Growth Worries, Housing Issues Weigh

By Steven Russolillo
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–U.S. stocks dropped Tuesday, following three straight trading days of gains, as weak European economic data and a downbeat reading on the domestic housing market put growth concerns back in the spotlight.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average recently fell 66 points, or 0.6%, to 11417, recently led lower by Bank of America’s 3.2% drop and J.P. Morgan Chase’s 1.7% decline. The blue-chip index is coming off a 214-point rally on Monday. It has gained 7.1% over the last three trading days, its biggest such move since March 2009.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index lost 10 points, or 0.8%, to 1195. Financial and material stocks were the biggest decliners in a broad selloff. All 10 of the S&P 500 sectors traded in the red. The Nasdaq Composite shed 24 points, or 1%, to 2531.

On the U.S. economic front, the Commerce Department said home construction dropped in July as the battered housing market continues to struggle. Housing starts dropped 1.5% from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 604,000. The decline in July follows two consecutive monthly gains.

The results were a little better than economists were forecasting. But construction remains below a healthy level, which economists say would be 1 million to 1.5 million starts.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 21:28:33

AUGUST 15, 2011, 10:35 A.M. ET

Fannie Mae Housing Survey Shows 64% Pessimistic On US Economy

Fannie Mae’s (FNMA) second-quarter national housing survey reveals that 64% of American homeowners and renters say the economy is on the wrong track, the most pessimistic view since the survey’s inception in the first quarter of 2010.

“Consumers are more cautious due to concerns over employment and household finances,” said Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. “As a result, consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the economy, ground to a halt in the second quarter. Consumers are more hesitant to take on additional financial commitments, and a setback to confidence means a setback to the recovery of the housing market.”

For the month of July, the survey found that 70% now believe the economy is on the wrong track, with just 23% saying the economy is heading in the right direction.

Most Americans, 53%, think it would be difficult to get a home mortgage today, and the doubt increases to 71% among renters.

Furthermore, 26% of mortgage borrowers say they are underwater, up from 23% in the first quarter survey.

The results are based on 3,002 telephone interviews of Americans aged 18 and older from April 4 to June 28.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 21:30:26

Single-family home slump drags down July housing starts
The Associated Press
Updated 13h 57m ago

WASHINGTON — U.S. builders broke ground on fewer single-family houses in July, leaving home construction at depressed levels.

The Commerce Department said Tuesday that builders began work on a seasonally adjusted 604,000 homes last month, a 1.5% drop from June. That’s half the 1.2 million homes per year that economists say must be built to sustain a healthy housing market.

Single-family homes, which represent 70% of home construction, fell 5%. Apartment building rose more than 6%.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 21:34:07

Is there any data on how many former Toll Brothers employees now live in their parents’ basements?

Single-family home slump drags down July housing starts
The Associated Press
Updated 13h 57m ago

Despite historically low mortgage rates, few Americans are prepared to buy a home as the economy fizzles and job growth is painfully slow.

“The now-extended period of ultra-low interest rates is not squeezing any new demand out of the rock,” said Pierre Ellis, an analyst at Decision Economics.

U.S. homebuilders are just as pessimistic about the depressed housing market as they were two years ago.

The National Association of Home Builders said Monday that its survey of industry sentiment was unchanged at 15 this month. The index has been below 20 for all but one month during the past two years. The index is just seven points above the lowest reading on record, in January 2009.

Any reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the housing market. The index hasn’t reached 50 since April 2006, the peak of the housing boom.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 21:36:58

Busted Recovery: How Much is Housing to Blame?
Posted by Stephen Gandel Tuesday, August 16, 2011 at 9:29 am
Related Topics: real estate, recession, recovery
(Rick Wilking / Reuters)

In early spring, when the news came out that housing had entered a double dip - prices were falling again - it seemed like an outlier. The jobs market was picking up steam. Corporate profits were up. The stock market was rising. A lot has changed in just a few months. Now the question is whether housing was a leading indicator for the economy, or was it just leading the economy.

Today, there was relatively good news out of the housing sector. The Census Department reported that housing starts fell 1.5% in July, which was less than the nearly 5% forecasters had expected. That means home builders are on pace to build only 25,000 fewer homes in the next year than they were just a month ago. The fact that this registers as good news is the biggest sign of how weak the housing market is. At the height of the housing bubble builders were putting up homes at a rate of about 2.25 million a year, or nearly four times as fast as now. Later this week, the National Association of Realtors will release data for the number of existing homes that sold in July. Most forecasters think sales will rise slightly. But housing expert Thomas Lawler thinks even the today’s diminished expectations for real estate are too rosy. He expects sales to drop slightly.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 21:42:30

Home prices, sales in decline
Staff Reports
Posted: 08/16/2011 04:28:57 PM PDT

Yet another housing price survey shows a decline in home prices and sales volumes.

In July, Southern California housing prices fell about 4 percent to $283,000 on a year-over-year basis, La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems reported Tuesday.

San Bernardino County’s median prices fell 2.6 percent to $151,000 last month. Los Angeles County median prices slipped 5.6 percent to $320,000.

Southern California sales volumes also fell 4.5 percent to the lowest levels for a July in the past four years, DataQuick reported. The real estate tracking firm blamed a weak job market, economic uncertainties and last month’s mere 20 business days.

“The latest sales figures look a bit worse than they really are, given this July was a fairly short month, but they still suggest some potential homebuyers got spooked,” DataQuick president John Walsh, said in a statement.

Notably, July was the month when President Obama and Congress engaged in a prolonged debate over the national debt ceiling during which some pundits and officials raised the spectre of a national debt default.

“Reports on the economy became increasingly downbeat and, no doubt, some people fretted over the possibility the country would default on its obligations,” Walsh said.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 21:44:48

Southern California Home Sales Drop 4.5% as Buyers Hold Off on Purchases
By Dan Levy - Aug 15, 2011 10:16 AM PT

Home sales in Southern California fell 4.5 percent last month from a year earlier as mortgages were hard to obtain and the U.S. debt crisis rattled some high- end buyers, according to DataQuick.

A total of 18,090 houses and condominiums sold in July in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties, a 12 percent decline from June, the property research firm said today in a statement. The median price paid was $283,000, down 4.1 percent from July 2010 and the fifth consecutive decline on a year-over-year basis.

“Reports on the economy became increasingly downbeat and, no doubt, some people fretted over the possibility the country would default on its obligations,” John Walsh, president of San Diego-based DataQuick, said in the statement. “If there’s a shred of good news in the data it’s that last month’s sales weren’t much worse than a year earlier.”

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 22:00:39

Kudos to HBB posters circa 2006 who saw the depression coming and predicted it. At the time, I thought the more extreme predictions were unduly dire, but it turns out they were on target.

Man on the Street: Recession or Depression?
by Dora Bromme, published on August 16, 2011 at 7:47 PM

We’ve all felt the pangs of Sacramento’s economic downturn, from some people losing jobs to others finding it more difficult every day to get one, and the more unfortunate circumstance of many even losing their businesses or homes. But how much longer is it expected to last, and is this the worst of it?

The Sacramento Press asked people in Capitol Park their thoughts on whether Sacramento is in a recession or a depression.

Capitol area resident, 55-year-old Diana Williams, program technician for the Department of Health, said she sees both:

“The reason for it is that I’ve been on the service (for the State) a little while, and I’ve experienced difficulties in politics where it’s influenced, as a state worker, our income, our self-worth. Not only just a state worker just being as a neighbor, listening to other people, the negativity that’s going on in California, people not handling the books right and what have you,” Williams said.

“I think we’re in a recession because you can see it around you. Starting with income – we don’t have the money to take care of business anymore – people are losing homes … It started with businesses – when they started closing. When we (saw) that, then it started affecting our homes. It’s a recession, and we’re depressed because we can’t enjoy what we worked for.”

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 22:10:22

Affordable housing policy inflicted the most financial damage on the low income minority families it was supposed to help, by encouraging them to become home owners. Where are the apologies from the likes of liberal Democratic Congressmen like Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, who were the biggest proponents of these programs?

P.S. When you read these stories like this one about how much American families net worths have dropped, perhaps it will make you feel better to remember that Wall Street investment bankers managed to keep pulling in multi-million dollar bonuses right through the worst of the great recession. It’s almost as if Wall Street had a giant straw (or was it the Fed’s printing press?) available to suck away wealth right out from under Main Street American families’ feet.

Posted on Tue, Aug. 16, 2011 07:11 AM
Our financial problems extend far beyond D.C.
By LEWIS DIUGUID
McClatchy Newspapers

The Great Recession with soaring unemployment and plunging home and stock values hurt African-Americans and Hispanics far more than whites.

Hispanic household median wealth fell 66 percent and black wealth fell 53 percent from 2005 to 2009.

It may take a generation for minorities to recover from the losses, said the Rev. DeForest “Buster” Soaries Jr., senior pastor of First Baptist Church of Lincoln Gardens in Somerset, N.J. He was among the speakers on a “Building Wealth in Tough Times” panel at this month’s National Association of Black Journalists convention in Philadelphia.

A report from the Pew Research Center - the focus of the panel discussion - said the recession led to the largest wealth disparities in at least 25 years for minorities compared with whites. The median wealth of white households was 18 times greater than the median net worth of Hispanic households and 20 times that of black households.

Median wealth is the value of all assets such as home equity, stocks, savings and vehicles minus liabilities such as mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt. The study, based on 2009 census data, found that the typical black household had just less than $6,000 in wealth compared with just over $6,000 for Hispanics and more than $113,000 for whites.

In 2005, black family wealth was twice that amount, Hispanic wealth was three times greater and whites had $20,000 more. Asian families’ household wealth, which was the highest among all of the groups, fell from just over $168,000 in 2005 to about $78,000.

Black, Hispanic and Asian families had most of their wealth in their homes, causing them to experience the worst drop in financial stability. But they also disproportionately got into the housing market when homeownership rates rose from 64 percent in 1994 to 69 percent in 2004.

Minority families were disproportionately hurt when home values crashed. Foreclosures and plunging home equity in Nevada, Arizona, Florida and California hit Hispanic families hardest because of their concentration in those areas. Asian families’ concentration in California caused their home values also to burst with the housing market.

“White households were also affected by the housing crisis,” the Pew report said. “But home equity accounts for relatively less of their total net worth, and that served to lessen the impact of the housing bust.”

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 22:14:35

Stupid is as stupid said.

UCLA forecast sees no California recession
They say economy is likely to weather housing collapse
March 11, 2008|By Sam Zuckerman, Chronicle Staff Writer

Is the housing bust taking the California economy down?

Not necessarily, says an influential forecasting group. In a report set for release today, economists at the UCLA Anderson Forecast predict that damage from the collapse of housing will be contained and that the state’s feeble economy will avoid a headlong dive into negative territory.

“Real estate weakness will remain a significant drag on the economy, leaving us treading water in 2008, but not slipping under the waves into recession,” the report concludes.

Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-17 01:02:32

Without Silicon Valley, I have little doubt that they would be wrong.

However, with the activity going on in SV, it doesn’t seem outlandish to me that CA would avoid recession.

I was told today that there as many tech jobs in San Francisco currently as there were during the peak of the dotcom bubble. Farther south, Google just signed a lease for a new building that will house an additional 2,900 employees.

Everytime someone in Minnesota buys some digital bucks from Zynga, some of that money ends up in the hands of someone in Palo Alto (Facebook) and SF (Zynga). And when someone in NYC advertises with Google, some of that money ends up in Mountain View. And when another iPad is sold, some of that money ends up in the hands of an Apple employee in Cupertino.

When you think about the biggest tech trends today, they are driving money to Silicon Valley…from there it leaks out to the communities.

This is not a panacea, and I’m not saying this effect is large enough to overcome other problems, but it is one hell of a bucket getting water out of the boat.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-17 01:03:46

Wow, completely missed that prediction was in 2008…I thought it was a recent study…lol. I guess it’s too late for me to be reading. Time for bed.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 22:19:46

The Fed’s berserko liquidity pump is inspiring copper thieves to cash in on climbing metals prices.

By Adrian Covert Aug 16, 2011 5:30 PM
Why in the Hell Is Everyone Stealing Copper?

Search the news for “copper theft” and look through the headlines. LOOK. Why are there so many stories? Stealing wire to sell the copper? From a cell tower? What is this, the Great Depression?

Reports from the Department of Energy estimate that copper theft is responsible for $1 billion worth of damage every single year. The problem is so rampant that there’s a coalition to prevent copper theft. State laws are being passed left and right, requiring close monitoring of all copper sales. What gives? It’s the economy, stupid.

Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-17 01:04:55

This first happened to us on a building in 2008. This has been going on for a while.

 
 
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