August 16, 2011

The Age Of Excess

The Press of Atlantic City reports from New Jersey. “With home prices and mortgage rates low, and lots of distressed properties, real estate is a buyer’s market. Yet buyers are less satisfied. Marsha Mangiello, one of four co-owners of Re/Max Atlantic in Northfield and Absecon, said buyers without money saved for a big down payment should realize their window to buy a home might close soon, since there’s a move in Congress to require 20 percent down payments. Being realistic up front with sellers is more important than ever, she said, since they’re more likely to have expectations that don’t match the market.”

“‘We wish we could give sellers the prices that they want, but that’s just not reality,’ she said. ‘I tell them, do you want me to tell you what you need to hear or what you want to hear? They always say, well, I guess what I need to hear.’”

The Record in New Jersey. “Four major mortgage lenders were cleared Monday to start filing foreclosure cases in New Jersey again, almost eight months after the state’s chief justice halted most foreclosures following reports of legal irregularities. Bank of America, Citibank, JPMorgan Chase Bank and Wells Fargo all got the green light to move forward with uncontested foreclosures from Superior Court Judge Mary Jacobson, sitting in Trenton. Uncontested foreclosures, in which the homeowner does not fight the lender’s effort to take back the property, make up more than 90 percent of the cases in the state.’

“Phyllis Salowe-Kaye, head of New Jersey Citizen Action, the state’s largest housing-counseling agency, predicted the ruling would lead to a rush of foreclosures. ‘Here they come,’ she said.”

Vermont Public Radio. “News that bankruptcy filings were down compared to last year might appear to be some good news. But as VPR’s Nina Keck reports, experts say the reasons behind the decline are troubling. (Keck) Remember all the trouble some banks got in when it was learned that they had improperly filed foreclosure documents? Attorney Michelle Kainen, chair of the Vermont Bar Association’s bankruptcy section says that may just have delayed bankruptcy for many Vermonters.”

“(Kainen) ‘So we’re all just wondering if there isn’t a bottle neck with lenders and once the documentation gets straightened out, that those will jut bust loose all of a sudden - that’s what I’m concerned about. And if there’s a flood of those all of a sudden the numbers will shoot back up quite rapidly.’”

From Vt Digger. “If you have a mortgage, chances are you have never spoken to the owner of your mortgage deed. If you have spoken to anyone, it was probably to an agent of the servicing company. This is someone who has about the same authority over your mortgage as a gardener at a Bel Air mansion has over redecorating the west wing.’

“This formula works well so long as the mortgage is paid and money flows through the joints of the system. Shut that money off and begin default, and issues quickly arise. The well-oiled investment machine starts to behave like a high school dropout at exam time. This brings us to today’s case. A homeowner was sued by a U.S. bank for defaulting on her mortgage…The trial court, leery and suspicious of so many questionable documents from the bank, granted the motion to dismiss and did so with prejudice.”

“Here is the rub for the homeowner. This victory, sweet as it might be, is destined to be short lived…The bank can simply re-file its complaint to revive its claims. So the homeowner’s victory only buys her a few more months unless she and the bank can settle. At the end, you can see both sides pulling out their hair. The homeowner, meanwhile, can only savor her bittersweet victory with the knowledge that another round of foreclosures are coming down the pike — and the bankers know her address.”

The New York Observer. “Ample closet space, like an in-unit washer and dryer, is one of those coveted and elusive amenities most Manhattanites aren’t accustomed to. This one-bedroom apartment had plenty of storage space for one person (or two), with closets in the kitchen, hallway, bedroom, bathroom and entrance area.”

“Storage bins are also available in the building’s basement, as an added cost on top of the $499,000 asking price for the apartment.”

“Apartment 821 at 333 East 43rd Street has a creative solution for the lack of large, walk-in closets in pre-war buildings: built-in storage cabinets in the living room. A small, white cabinet sits near the front door of the apartment, and similar cabinets line the windowed corner of the living room. With cushions on top, these double as seating space in front of a kitchen table. ‘Most people who are looking at pre-wars understand that in that era people didn’t have walk-ins so they appreciate the new things like the built-ins,’ said broker Matthew Pucker.”

“The two-bedroom apartment, priced at $865,000, also has a bathroom closet, a small closet in the second bedroom and a large closet that stretches across one wall of the master bedroom. Indeed, people during those times probably didn’t amass quite as much stuff as modern-day New Yorkers. But it is the age of excess.”

“The last unit we looked at, 216 East 47th Street, apartment 6 A/B, is really two adjacent units combined into one massive three- or four-bedroom, has about eight closets and comes with two basement storage bins. Being an estate property, the apartment would need some sprucing up, but at $1.7 million it’s still not a bad deal. Despite our natural inclination to believe that listings advertising closet space would net many an interested buyer, The Observer didn’t find any house hunters while we were at at this Sunday’s showings.”

The Boston Globe in Massachusetts. “Laurie and Chris Ying of Lexington began thinking about selling their four-bedroom home after their daughter left for college in 2005. When they couldn’t find a suitable smaller home, they decided to renovate and wait. Then the housing market crashed, convincing them to stay put even longer. But last year, sensing an improvement in local real estate conditions, and needing to spend another $120,000 to update the kitchen and dining area, they decided to put their home of 25 years up for sale. With nearby construction coming onto the market, they figured they had ‘maxed out’ the profit they could make.”

“While the Yings waited for the real estate market to recover, they renovated their home to improve its value. As a result, when they sensed the market improving, they felt they could get a good price for a home that their investments had made ‘very desirable.’ ‘Lexington was in a unique position,’ said Laurie Ying. ‘Houses and values slowed down but never stopped.’”

“The Yings put their home on the market in February 2010 after deciding to buy a townhouse in a new development in Lexington. Eight days later, they sold it for the asking price of just over $1 million. It was less than they would have received before the housing crash - and perhaps a bit less than this year - but enough to allow them to also buy a condo in Falmouth.”

“They may not have received top dollar for their family home, but Laurie, happy to have a getaway on the Cape, said, ‘We took one property investment and turned it into two.’”

From WWLP in Massachusetts. “The state Secretary of the Executive Office of Health and Human Services, Dr. JudyAnn Bigby, testified before the House Bonding Committee as part of its annual review on her department’s capital expenditures. During the hearing, Bigby said Massachusetts only trails Vermont in ratcheting up the highest healthcare premiums in the nation.’

“‘About 15% of those increased costs are attributed to the higher cost of living in Massachusetts,’ said Bigby. ‘If you think about labor costs, housing, those types of things, we’re in a high cost region.’”

The Taunton Daily Gazette in Massachusetts. “The waiting list for families applying for one of the Bridgewater Housing Authority’s 12 units may close because the number has grown improbably high, says the BHA executive director Karen Rudd. ‘It just gives people false hope. It doesn’t make sense to keep it open,’ said Rudd.”

“The waiting list has grown to 517 for low-income families to have a chance at the single-family units available through the Bridgewater Housing Authority. According to Rudd, none of the units are currently available, and it may be years before another one turns over. Even when one family leaves, added Rudd, there will still be 516 families left on the list. ‘If we leave it open another two years, the list will be at 800. We have 12 houses,’ Rudd emphasized.”

The Providence Journal in Rhode Island. “Although the real estate market as a whole remains in a slump in 2011, a tiny sliver of it, houses priced at $1 million and above, has experienced a slight uptick in sales in the first half of the year. According to statistics from the Rhode Island Association of Realtors, the number of single-family house sales at $1 million and above in the first six months of 2011 inched up to 46, from 43 last year and just 26 in the first half of 2009.”

“Realtors’ association statistics show there were 433 houses in Rhode Island for sale with list prices at $1 million and above as of June 30 –– nearly 10 times the number of sales in the first half of the year.”

“‘What’s concerning to me is the overhang of inventory,’ said Jay Serzan, of Gustave White Sotheby’s International Realty, in Newport. ‘In the million-dollar price range, I almost want to say it’s a huge number of available properties as compared to the number of sales.’ Serzan added that ‘if buyer activity doesn’t increase … it’s going to put downward pressure on prices.’”




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25 Comments »

Comment by Elanor
2011-08-16 07:11:08

“But last year, sensing an improvement in local real estate conditions, and needing to spend another $120,000 to update the kitchen and dining area,…”

Good grief. No one “needs” to spend that much money to “update” anything.

Comment by CarrieAnn
2011-08-16 12:02:31

Lexington….

I’m sure their country club/historical society/ friends had set the expectation bar pretty high. Don’t expect the Home Depot kitchen would fly in much of Lexington.

What’s funny is they go and sell that and buy a home in gang infested Falmouth. Ughgh! People really need to research what’s going on on the Cape before experiencing waterfront blindness. All locales are not created equal. Not if your personal safety is important to you, that is.

 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2011-08-16 07:12:16

“Needing to spend another $120,000 to update the kitchen and dining area.”

Well, I’ve had some renovations done in my time. And that sentence just blows my mind. Time to send a thank you note to my contractors. Or not, because I paid exactly what RS Means said I should have.

Comment by ncinerate
2011-08-16 09:39:58

Yeah, wtf are they putting in that kitchen that could even remotely cost 120,000$?

Are they gold-plating the counter-top?

Custom rare crystal stovetop blessed by an Aztec shaman?

Internet ready toaster?

I’m pretty sure you could kit out a reasonably large high-end restaurant kitchen for less than that.

Comment by b-hamster
2011-08-16 09:54:12

I tell guests that some day my faux-wood formica counter tops will come back in style. It’s only a matter of time.

Comment by WT Economist
2011-08-16 10:10:16

We got formica back in 1994. I looked a the supposedly more durable alternatives, and even if they lasted longer it just didn’t economic sense.

Here it is 17 years later, and the countertops are just fine. They are more likely to be replaced because the wife is tired of them than for any other reason. And given that, do you really want to go with something more expensive than formica?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by CarrieAnn
2011-08-16 12:10:22

Want to hear something nuts?

A local middle school has Silestone countertops in the kids bathrooms. I’m quite sure a decent percentage of their supporting tax payers wish they had something so nice in their homes. They might be able to afford them if only their school taxes weren’t so high.

And yet no one shows up at school board meetings or to vote no on budgets. In all the local districts the percentage that shows up is under 10%.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by octal77
2011-08-16 07:18:58


…should realize their window to buy a home might close soon, since there’s a move in Congress to require 20 percent down payments. …

As usual, this R/E agent has got it 180 degrees backwards.

If 20% down payments become the norm, prices will DROP allowing
buyers to actually save enough for a down payment and AFFORD
the property.

Thought for the day:

Is there a single R/E agent left in the USA who *isn’t* an idiot?

Comment by combotechie
2011-08-16 07:24:37

“… their window to buy a home might close soon …”

IOW, buy now or be priced out forever.

Sales people find a tactic that works then they beat it to death.

And the lemmings never seem to catch on.

Comment by combotechie
2011-08-16 07:28:57

“Is there a single R/E agent left in the USA who *isn’t* an idiot?”

There are idiots involved in these transactions but, at least in this case, they are not found on the realtor side of the transactions.

 
 
Comment by ncinerate
2011-08-16 09:58:22

For giggles I was considering buying a multifamily home (fourplex) relatively recently. These homes require a decent sized down payment to get into (15%-25%). Here’s what I discovered:

1: The down payment certainly depressed the market, with these 4-plex buildings in mesa/gilbert/chandler/etc starting to fall into the range of good investments (12%-15%+ cap rate - many selling for a price that puts a mortgage lower than the rent on a SINGLE unit).

2: There is no shortage of investors willing to snatch these properties up because of this. A large number of them went for cash immediately.

So I guess what I’m saying is, yes, 20% down payments will lower the value of homes, but rental possibilities will likely keep the market propped up at an “investment-sound” level in most markets (with some exceptions: see - Detroit). “Average Joe” likely can’t put together the kind of cash to make that 20% down payment possible in light of this. Thus, I doubt we’ll see 20% required. It’d make the peasants a bit too angry.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-16 13:57:05

The real acid test will come after the investors actually have the property.

Will they maintain it? Repair it? Or find quality tenants that won’t beat the place to a pulp? Lather, rinse, repeat, because it’s a never-ending thing in the landlording game.

Paying cash is all well and good, but there’s a lot more work ahead. And I think that a lot of these whiz-bang all-cash investors will find this work a lot harder than they anticipated.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2011-08-16 12:00:37

“should realize their window to buy a home might close soon, since there’s a move in Congress to require 20 percent down payments.”

This is an outright lie. The “movement in Congress” already happened when they passed the Dodd-Frank financial reform law. The QRM “requirement” is a pending regulation that if you don’t have 20% down, the bank has to hold 5% of the loan. You can still get a loan, you may have to pay more for it, as it should be. They are still evaluating it. I’d be surprised if QRM took effect less than a year from now.

Re-al-TORS are being fed this line of BS from the NAR. I am just WAITING for some re-al-TOR to shove this line on me. I will give them the full info, and then tell her that MY financing is between ME and MY bank and it’s none of HER f*cking beeswax.

 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2011-08-16 12:12:46

Octal let’s not leave out the msm or local press shills when you’re flaming the clueless.

Is there a single R/E agent left in the USA who *isn’t* an idiot?

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 07:37:50

“‘In the million-dollar price range, I almost want to say it’s a huge number of available properties as compared to the number of sales.’ Serzan added that ‘if buyer activity doesn’t increase … it’s going to put downward pressure on prices.’”

Number of current San Diego County MLS listings at $1m on up = 899

Number of current San Diego County MLS listings over $10M = 36

Number of current listings from $1m to $10m = 899 - 36 = 863

Average gap between list prices of current SD County listings between $1m-$10m = $9m/863 = $10,429 dollars

There is a home on the San Diego County MLS for every millionaire’s budget. Come on down, all cash investors, and snap up these homes before interest rates increase!

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 07:41:23

My bad — there are actually 2,637 homes on the SD County MLS at $1m on up (not sure what went wrong with that first search!).

36 above $10m is correct.

So the Average gap between list prices of current SD County listings between $1m-$10m = $9m/2,601 = $3,460 dollars. That must seem like a drop in the bucket to an all-cash investor.

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 08:40:17

There are a total of 10,850 SFRs, townhomes and condos currently listed on the SD County MLS, which means that (2,637/10,850)*100 = 24.3% (about 1 in 4) homes on the market are in the $1m+ wishing price range.

Luckily, one in four San Diegans is a millionaire; otherwise this would be worrisome.

 
 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2011-08-16 12:38:44

If you were referring to the Rhode Island story in Ben Jones collection above, I was thinking they had to be referring to the Tiverton, MA/Portsmouth, RI, Newport area. I grew up on the New England seacoast and spent the majority of my life on the NE coast and still I do have to say, the first time I went through Tiverton a few years back, it took my breath away.

If I had extra money for housing, that would definitely be tops on my list of where I’d spend it. Maybe after the crash if we’re really smart about how we lever against the market we can buy a shack. LOL

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 13:53:09

“Maybe after the crash if we’re really smart about how we lever against the market we can buy a shack. LOL”

Meanwhile, make sure you are hedged against (housing) price inflation…

 
 
 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-16 10:46:09

“Thee O.C.!” :-)

2 of every 3 O.C. residents could not afford home
August 16th, 2011, by Marilyn Kalfus, real estate reporter / OC Register

Fewer than one-third of Orange County residents could afford to buy a median-priced, single family home here as of the second quarter of 2011, a California Association of Realtors analysis shows.

.
The report’s Orange County highlights:

* Only 31% could afford the home. That compares with 27% in Q2 2010 and 33% in Q1 2011.
* The median, single family home price: $536,720
* A minimum qualifying income of $115,320 would be required.
* Monthly payments, including taxes and insurance, were pegged at $2,880 a month.

Statewide, the percentage of buyers who could afford to purchase a median-priced, single-family home dropped to 51% in the second quarter of 2011, down from 53% in Q1 2011 but up 46% in Q2 2010.

California buyers needed a minimum annual income of $63,080 to qualify for a $293,580 median-priced home in Q2 2011. The monthly payment, including taxes and insurance, would be $1,580, assuming a 20 percent down payment and an effective composite interest rate of 4.85 percent, according to the report.

From C.A.R. President Beth L. Peerce:

“The pending cut in the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac high cost loan limits will make it harder and more expensive for those who live in high cost areas to purchase a home. Buyers who plan to finance their home purchase with a mortgage of $625,500 or more will face higher interest rates, higher down payments, and tighter loan qualification requirements beginning October 1.”

.
Posted in: Affordability • trends

 
Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2011-08-16 11:42:49

Excess….

Well below minimal level of consumption necessary to keep a 4 billion person strong global workforce in a constant state of chronic underemployment in the face of workplace automation…

You say tomato, I say tomAto.

Comment by CarrieAnn
2011-08-16 12:19:14

You say tomato, I say tomAto.

Let’s call the whole thing off.

 
 
Comment by CarrieAnn
2011-08-16 12:26:33

Wish I could remember who here told me to STFU and just pay the mortgage when I complained about this set up on the hbb a few years back. I had absolutely no problem paying. Just wasn’t happy w/the “person” knowing exactly where and how to contact me when I wasn’t allowed the same rights despite signing a contract where I did originally have those rights. Now I’m finding out what’s more frightening would be my position as a new buyer.

“If you have a mortgage, chances are you have never spoken to the owner of your mortgage deed. If you have spoken to anyone, it was probably to an agent of the servicing company. This is someone who has about the same authority over your mortgage as a gardener at a Bel Air mansion has over redecorating the west wing.’

“This formula works well so long as the mortgage is paid and money flows through the joints of the system. Shut that money off and begin default, and issues quickly arise. The well-oiled investment machine starts to behave like a high school dropout at exam time.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-16 16:45:13

Would it be more aptly named, “The Age of Fear”?

Booming business of fear: Sales of safes soar
By Blake Ellis August 14, 2011: 10:39 AM ET
Sales of security safes and luxury vaults increase

Brown Safe created this $6,500 custom-designed safe for a customer who needed to protect piles of gold bars, jewelry and cash.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Amid the market turmoil, sales of security safes and vaults have spiked. While some shoppers sought to protect whatever valuables they had left, others needed a place to stash their newly-acquired safe haven assets such as gold and cash.

Port Charlotte, Fla.-based Value Safes said it sold an average of $13,000 in safes a day in the past week, more than tripling its daily average of $3,500 from the previous week. On Amazon.com (AMZN, Fortune 500), SentrySafe’s $170 1.2-cubic foot combination safe was among the site’s biggest “movers and shakers” Friday, with sales rising 44% over the past 24 hours.

Maximum Security, which sells safes for jewelry, coins, guns and other valuables, said it has seen demand climb by more than 30% over the past two weeks.

“People are just plain scared,” said Nancy Bryan, owner of Santa Ana, Calif.-based Maximum Security, who noted that sales started increasing about three years ago at the onset of the recession.

“What is happening to our financial markets is the most recent addition,” she added. “Folks are worried about the decreasing value of the dollar, burglaries on the rise in their neighborhoods … and even the possibility that the unrest we are seeing in other parts of the world slipping over to our country.”

Hiding cash in tampon boxes - other sneaky spots

 
Comment by Mugsy
2011-08-17 06:14:19

“…said buyers without money saved for a big down payment should realize their window to buy a home might close soon, since there’s a move in Congress to require 20 percent down payments.”

In sales we called this the “impending doom” close however, I think the doom is impending for the realtors.

 
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