Bits Bucket for August 19, 2011
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
April 2025 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
Gold seems to be going parabolic now:
3:56a
BREAKING
Gold futures up $47.20 to $1,869.10 an ounce
Yes Bear its probably short sellers getting squeezed not sure if J6P has enough to buy even an ounce ay this price….but the real news is … my cat decided to wake me up at 430 this morning, guess i Forgot to leave her some food last night…now i cant go back to sleep…
I added a modest position in GLD to my portfolio back in 2006. I’m really glad that I did because it has been a great stabilizer.
I can’t tell you how many days my equity holdings have shown a negative daily performance and the precious metals have posted positive daily returns.
Can anyone identify any asset classes that are negatively correlated to equities? I’m not sure that gold is, but I sure like having some positions zig while the others zag.
“Can anyone identify any asset classes that are negatively correlated to equities?”
Well, cash is.
The unit of measurement for equities (as is gold, as is for most things - except cash) is cash.
i.e. if stocks went up a dollar then that means the dollar went down a dollar as measured against stocks, and vice-versa, thus there is a negative correlation.
in this economy…when the dollar weakens…equities rally and vice versa.
charles hugh smith had a very good essay posted within the past week or so explaining how that realtionship could change.
Cash.
I would be extremely cautious having large amounts of cash in the bank. The banking sector is looking increasingly unstable. The FDIC would be overwhelmed by the next crash. The FED might print up the difference but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it. If you put your money in the bank I would do some research on how stable that bank is. Never go over the FDIC limit of $250K. Sort term treasuries are still OK.
I have some of my money with Hussman and Gundlach (Doubletree securities). Those guys are pretty smart. So far they haven’t lost me any money….just my $0.02
…Doubleline securities…sorry
“The FED might print up the difference but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.”
i would.
“The FED might print up the difference but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.”
I would; they will make good on FDIC guarantees, given the recent precedent of making good on AIG, GM, banks large and small all over the planet, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac MBS, etc etc etc. The FDIC deposit insurance is sacrosanct, and will be backed up by future borrowing as necessary, exactly as the FSLIC guarantee was backed up by Resolution Trust bonds during the S&L crisis.
This is just my opinion; gamble at your own risk.
I would as well.
They learned their lesson by letting Lehman fail. They certainly won’t let another big bank go down.
In a couple of weeks, I’m going to be taking to the storytelling stage here in Tucson. It’s a family story about my aunt’s 1932 encounter with President Hoover.
In doing the research for my story — which combines American history with my family’s history — I learned all sorts of things about our country and how the Depression affected it.
Here’s an excerpt from my story:
From 1929 to 1932, almost 5,000 banks failed. And by 1933, almost half of our banks were gone – 11,000 out 25,000 gone. And there was no deposit insurance back then. So if your money was in one of those 11,000 banks, poof! It was gone. Too bad.
Aunt Jean remembers a day when she was out running errands with her mother, my Grandma Madeline. They went to the town bank and it was closed. Grandma didn’t say a word. They just continued on to their next stop. Did Grandma and Grandpa lose money in that bank? We don’t know. They never discussed it with us.
At the point at which the FDIC fails to cover deposits, you would probably need enough land to grow most of your own food, with a couple of goats or cows, some chickens, a few fruit and nut trees, a greenhouse, a barn, a house, enough solar panels to power a freezer and a few lights. And be prepared to defend it.
The FDIC will not fail until there is global chaos in financial markets. At that point, the flow of goods has a significant probability of being disrupted.
I think this is why farmland has been increasing in price recently. Those who can afford it are hedging their bets against catastrophe.
Yeah, if Armageddon hits, I’d like to see some of these “investors” move out here to the sticks.
That new top of the line Audi/BMW/Benz will really blend in with all the 20 year old pickup trucks.
Are there going to be enough ex-Special Forces guys to go around, when all of the 5%ers decide they need a security force?
screw guns and gold…stockpile seeds.
The guy with the gun, gets your seeds.
They had to offer FDIC insurance to get people to put money back in banks again after the ordeal of the Banks closing down after the stock market crash of 1929 .
Interesting ,back in those days a lot of rich people loss their money and assets with the stock market crash and the bank runs . This time who got protected and bailed out .
If you want to look at true liability , who should pay for a Ponzi scheme in which investments were misrated and long term lending principals were discarded .Pension plans aren’t allowed to invest in anything but AAA paper . So ,its just lied about and its all ok lets just throw all the entitled people under the bus because you can’t expect it from the dealers that took their money and ran or got bail outs .
Wall Street Stock Market thinks that it can go up while Main street goes down in some bizarre jobless recovery along with wages going down and health costs and other costs going up …….I don’t think so .
“They certainly won’t let another big bank go down.”
I don’t know about that; I was talking about FDIC insurance on individual deposits. Plenty of S&Ls were allowed to go down in the late 1980s, including the one where my CD was parked, but the insurance made me whole on principle and interest.
The guy with the gun, gets your seeds.
”
unless the guy with the gun plans to farm himself ( doudt it) or just eat the seeds they will make a deal
protection for food just like now just like always
“Did Grandma and Grandpa lose money in that bank? We don’t know. They never discussed it with us.”
Fine, tell a story that has no ending!
but the [evil U$ Gov't] insurance made me whole on principle and interest. Right?
Under most conditions (including today’s), Treasurys are negatively correlated with equities. The one exception I can think of is when Treasurys sell off (as in Spring 1987) due to a sudden spike in interest rates; at points like this, the correlation tends to turn positive, as fundamentals suggest lower valuations for both the future fixed income stream on a bond and the stochastic stream of corporate earnings underlying a stock.
P.S. Unless you think we are headed into a period of deflation, I don’t see much further upside to long-term Treasurys at this juncture, aside from a safe harbor from declining equity prices, as nominal yields are at a 50-year low.
MARKETS
AUGUST 19, 2011
Treasury Yields Fall to Historic Lows as Stocks Plunge
By MATT PHILLIPS
For at least 50 years, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yielded nothing lower than 2%—until Thursday.
The yield sank to 1.9872% in early trading on Thursday, the first time it has hit that level since at least the 1960s, based on St. Louis Federal Reserve records. Before that, comparisons become murky.
Thursday’s move came in response to disappointing data from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve showing the U.S. economy began August on a bleak note. The data gave one of the first views of the economy in August, and it compounded worries that had been growing for the past six weeks. Investors fled stocks—sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 419.63 points, or 3.7%, to 10990.58—and moved into Treasurys, sending prices up and yields down. Prices and yields more inversely.
…
If you buy the GLD EFT I would expect the tax bill will really hurt your returns. I’m pretty sure gold is taxed like art or collectibles at up to 30%. If you hold physical gold at least you have the option to barter with it or sell it to a private party. I don’t hold much gold, less than 10oz but the real reason I got it was to use it to bribe the police or border guards.
I’m the same situation. My ideal percentage allocation of equities / precious metals / Government securities is 56 / 10 / 34. It’s been like that up to a month or so ago. Today it’s roughly 51 / 13 / 36.
I’m still bullish on stocks in the long run.
I like BBEP. I want to buy 1500 shares of NYB. But I don’t rebalance until December. I’d sell off some gold to buy NYB.
Chavez wants his 100 tons of gold. Not sure, but that might play into it. They should have just send him gold certificates worth 100 tons. No bankster deals in real gold anymore, too old fashioned.
Or tungsten bars….
Chavez wouldn’t know the difference.
Chavez is brilliant. Dont believe the FOX news take on the guy.
Oliver Stone has a great doc film “South of the Border,” for more info.
Chavez is 10x smarter than Bush.
I don’t trust foxnews neither do I trust Oliver Stone.
I always thought Bush was smart as anyone. May be not bookish but very street smart. But he played dumb beautifully. Honestly, why be smart if acting dumb will get you a presidency?
I always thought Bush was smart as anyone. May be not bookish but very street smart.
Actually, George and Laura Bush are both avid readers.
And I’m not talking trashy novels. Not at all. They both enjoy lengthy, substantive books.
If memory serves correctly, Laura was one of the main drivers behind the founding of the National Book Festival
A hundred tons? Assuming U.S. tons (2000 lbs) and not metric tons, that’s only about $5.9 Billion at today’s prices.
Yes, we are not at bubble territory but we may moving toward it. As I have said before I think that gold about $2400 dollars is in bubble territory but that will be need to be adjusted for inflation going forward. However, the PTB will probably not allow it to reach those levels since it is undermining their ability to create money by fiat. (Expect margin raises etc_. I see that the social media stock bubble is starting to deflate that is a bubble that the PTB wanted. However, the they are having better luck on housing, the last CPI showed shelter costs up .3 for the month, that is mainly due to increased rents. We both read the Economist and know they said months ago that house prices are now below where they should be based on rents. Sure housing prices can overshoot on the down side just as they overshot on the up side and there certainly is no rush to buy with this economy but helicopter Ben may be closer then some people think in ending the nominal drop in housing prices.
Is anyone buying stocks these days?
If so, I wish you “Good night, and good luck.”
P.S. Yes, I expect the recent turmoil in the stock market to spill over into the U.S. labor and housing markets.
Tan Says Stocks at Start of `Full-Fledged Bear Market’
Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) — Tan Teng Boo, managing director of Capital Dynamics Asset Management, talks about the outlook for global stocks and his investment strategy. Tan also discusses China’s economy and central bank monetary policy. He speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move Asia.” (Source: Bloomberg)
“P.S. Yes, I expect the recent turmoil in the stock market to spill over into the U.S. labor and housing markets.”
The stock market is about to poof away a lot of money just as the housing market did as this Great Contraction continues to roll on.
Shrink, shrink, shrink. Shrink the value of debts. Shrink the value of equities. Shrink the value of all promises of money that were made.
Exactly right, combo.
I’ll play Jeopardy.
BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!
What is “multiple compression”, Alex?
I know most people use money and wealth interchangably, but they are not. I think this misunderstanding is a significant part of our current economic problem.
Wealth is what you buy and money is other peoples’ debt.
When stock prices fall, the value of wealth falls in dollar terms. An adjusting of the exchage rate between wealth and money if you will. You can exchange that wealth for a lot less money.
That still isn’t “money” going poof. Money and debt always exist in equal and opposite amounts. Money only goes away when it is used to repay debt or the offsetting debt is written off as uncollectable.
People tend to go nuts when I say there is too much money in the ecnonomy. “What are you talking about, money is good! Prices are fairly stable. There can’t be too much money!”. Wrong! Money is debt. There is too much debt. The debt is threatening to cascade default into depression. We need the people with money to have less so that the people with debt can have a chance of getting the money they need to repay their debts before those debts pop, the money poofs, people lose faith in money, and we end up in depression.
Debt was based on falsely inflated prices as the result of faulty lending ( because the borrowers in a lot of cases didn’t have the ability to pay based on their true income )
This created false Demand ,which raised prices ,as in bubble , prices crashed ,but the debt is still based on the
fake price at the height of the false creation of the value of the security for the debt which was real estate .
So ,its either default on the debt and somebody is the loser ,or some other way of paying that debt .
The amount of loss is really really big . Especally if you consider all the other bets and leverage associated with
them using real estate as the security for that debt and other casino games they were playing .
How would a jobless recovery and reducing wages/benefits and raising the price of things help with the debt elephant in the room . How is consumer spending going to take place when the money isn’t there ,along with the tax based getting creamed and less jobs ,not more .
How can the stock market be de-coupled from the people who are the consumers and buyers of products .Do COmpanies think they are going to sell everything in foreign Countries ?
isn’t Wall Street suppose to be a reflection of Main street ,not some entity that can enrich the investment class apart from the worker bees who are the consumers in large part .
Shrink, shrink, shrink. Shrink the value of debts. Shrink the value of equities. Shrink the value of all promises of money that were made…
to American $ufferin’ $o’s, aka, MegaCorpInc. CEO’$
Deflation increases the size of the debt just the opposite of inflation.
I know what you mean though, the debt won’t be paid back in full
Debts are NEVER paid back in full. This is a time-honored truth that goes back to the earliest records of human history (and yes! there is documentation backing this up.)
Buffett doesn’t prefer equity because he’s some ol’ codger trying to speculate.
Invest in education for a change. It’s a lot more rewarding than slogans about inflation and the gold standard.
I highly suggest you watch this interview. Mr Tan offers a very shocking response with a smile on his face after Mr Salamat tries to get reassurances from Tan that things are looking up, despite the recent market selloff.
Is anyone buying stocks these days?
A question for a question:
Does the “Market$” ever make mi$takes?
[Hwy puts on leatherneck goggles, prepares for dog-fight with Snoopy Von Baron]
Global recession fears spook Wall Street
Panicked investors led a sell off in financial markets as the Dow closed down 419 points after dropping below 500. (Aug. 18) (CBS News)
Panicked investors led a sell off in financial markets as the Dow closed down 419 points after dropping below 500. (Aug. 18) (CBS News)”
is that good for house prices ? last time it was the tech bubble bust got people to buy REAL estate can’t just do a 2 for 1 split on RE.
Of course its harder to borrow now…..
Puh-lease…not a presidential candidate who plans to lecture the Nation on why he finds the Theory of Evolution riddled with holes. Don’t we have bigger issues to settle than arguing about a theory which is generally accepted in the scientific community and which is primarily questioned by adherents to fundamentalist religion? The rest of the world is going to get a good laugh at America’s expense over this ‘debate.’ I’m already so fed up with the Republican right wing nut job fringe that I could hurl at any given moment.
P.S. It may be worth mentioning this guy is a veterinary school dropout.
Aug 18, 2011
Rick Perry: Evolution is ‘theory’ with ‘gaps’
By Catalina Camia, USA TODAY
Updated 9h 3m ago
Updated at 6:51 p.m. ET
GOP presidential hopeful Rick Perry says evolution is “a theory” with “some gaps in it.”
The Texas governor was responding to a question from a little boy in New Hampshire, who was prompted by his mother to ask the Republican candidate about the age of the Earth and evolution.
“I hear your mom was asking about evolution,” Perry said today. “That’s a theory that is out there — and it’s got some gaps in it.”
…
Rick Perry is absolute scum, pure and simple.
He forced unproven an vaccine on Texas 6th graders after successful lobbying effort by Merck.
…
Perry has ties to Merck and Women in Government. One of the drug company’s three lobbyists in Texas is Mike Toomey, Perry’s former chief of staff. His current chief of staff’s mother-in-law, Texas Republican state Rep. Dianne White Delisi, is a state director for Women in Government.
The governor also received $6,000 from Merck’s political action committee during his re-election campaign.
…
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16948093/ns/health-kids_and_parenting/t/texas-governor-orders-std-vaccine-all-girls/
I knew Perry was a scum when he foreced Guardasil. Obama will get my vote before Perry does.
Nah, on a second thought I will just stay home…..
vote third party; don’t be part of the problem
Amen!
And a second Amen to that!
Around the time that Gardasil came on the market, I went to a local hospital’s presentation on women’s health. To hear it from the presenters, Gardasil was great stuff. Absolutely wonderful, in fact.
Then, a few weeks later, there was a spate of stories about the side effects, suggestions that maybe-just-maybe this vaccine was rushed to market, et cetera, and so forth.
It’s time to take a break from real issues and bring out the clowns. The reality of what is going on Center Ring is the last thing we need to think about right now.
“so fed up with the Republican right wing nut job fringe that I could hurl…”
No doubt, the folks who put out these “news” stories desire nothing less from you. Be sure to take a quiet walk outside today, take deep breaths, eat a healthy lunch.
I’m good now — got it out of my system.
I doubt he could even define “scientific theory”.
As used in science, a theory is an explanation or model based on observation, experimentation, and reasoning, especially one that has been tested and confirmed as a general principle helping to explain and predict natural phenomena.
Any scientific theory must be based on a careful and rational examination of the facts.
I wonder how Perry would define and fix feral girls like this:
http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/It-Happened-Again-128062773.html?dr
That is weird… Unemployment among african americans is twice that of the nation as a whole. Young African Americans is even worse.
And check out that video… Would it be racist to point out how many of those people robbing those stores were young african americans? As in… ALL of them!
We need:
Jobs, not welfare.
Wages, not trade imbalances and debt.
Trade tariffs, stronger labor laws, higher taxes on the rich and lower taxes on the middle-class, tighter lending standards, taxes on retained cash and equivilants…
I think people would be amazed what some jobs and wages would do to transform a disaffected and disfunctional sub-culture into happy, hard-working, law-abiding members of society.
It is only when you have nothing to lose that you are truely free to do anything you desire.
I think people would be amazed what some jobs and wages would do to transform a disaffected and disfunctional sub-culture into happy, hard-working, law-abiding members of society.
That’s why I’ve been so strongly in favor of a green jobs program for urban areas. A lot of these jobs would involve simple tasks like wielding a caulking gun, installing insulation, and working on a window replacement crew. In other words, they’d be starter jobs.
But, unlike flipping burgers or clerking in a big box store, the people in these jobs would be making a positive difference in their communities.
And when it comes to “scientific theory”, evolution has no gaps. The theory is simple, powerful, and explained by natural mechanisms and observation. The only “gaps” are in the fossil record, which is not a surprise given the length of the fossil record, the rarity of fossils, and the size of the planet. Every time a new fossil is found, it fits right in with what evolution would predict (i.e. a transitioning physical form over time).
If you want “gaps”, let’s talk about “intelligent design”, where all the “gaps” are filled in with faith.
I tried to explain to someone once that evolution is probably the best supported theory in the history of science. She didn’t believe me. I gave up. Then I gave up hitting my head against walls for no reason.
Evolution is simply the least absurd creation story.
“I do not say that John or Jonathan, that this generation or the next, will realize all this; but such is the character of that morrow which mere lapse of time can never make to dawn. The light which puts out our eyes is darkness to us. Only that day dawns to which we are awake. There is more day to dawn. The sun is but a morning star.” Thoreau
On my bookshelf is a book called “Why Evolution is True”. I haven’t read it yet. As a recipient of a biology degree, it’s a little like Economist reading about the economy. But I thought it would be a fun read–I’m sure is has a ton of examples of natural selection.
I think the most interesting is the blank stare that you can get from people who believe people lived at the same time as dinosaurs, and you ask them why there is no mention of dinosaurs in the Bible. You’d think that giant lizards would have deserved some mention…
What I never understood is the -insistence- that evolution didn’t and doesn’t occur for humans (the “WE DIDN’T COME FROM MONKEYS, MAYBE YOUR MOM CAME FROM A MONKEY” defense).
I approach things slightly differently when I get in a debate about creationism/evolution with a nutjob “faither”. I ask them, why is evolution any less miraculous? One tiny living thing, more primitive than even the most primitive bacteria today, assembled out of the dust around it (sound familiar?). It lived, multiplied, mutated, changing. Billions of years, trillions of lifetimes, each one nudged ever so slightly by the world around it. An impossible set of circumstance and coincidence, and survival through some of the most incredible cataclysmic events imaginable. A trial by fire and ice. A life-line that you can draw directly from that first spark of life right into your own existence. Man, created from dust of the earth, a true-blue miracle.
Why couldn’t “God” in his infinite wisdom have set -that- in motion to create man? What is more incredible - God coming down and shouting ABRACADABRA - POOF - MAN IS BORN, or God touching the smallest elements of the earth, tweaking them -JUST- so, and setting in motion the process that has created every single living organism on earth. Truly there could be no greater miracle, regardless of your feelings about the existence of “God”.
Because they want to assert that human beings have souls and other animals do not. If humans (and all other currently existing animals) exist because of a build up of mutations that happened to allow the organism to reproduce itself more successfully in its environment than organisms without those mutations, then you get a huge problem when you try to define who/what does and doesn’t have a soul.
Also, if you understand evolution, you also know there is no such thing as a direction toward human existance. I think that bothers them too.
I’d also like to point out that evolution doesn’t kick in until you get a self-replicating something with the possibility of mistakes in the replication process. The transition from purely chemical reactions to actual self-replication is not yet known and wouldn’t be part of evolution even if we did know.
The Smithsonian Natural History Museum is pretty good on this. I checked it out when I moved here as I wanted to see if they had let the anti-evolution crowd interfere with the exhibition. Glad to report they didn’t. There is one panel that explains that there are a number of hypotheses about the first self-replication, but we don’t really know yet how it happened. There is no doubt expressed that everything else is evolution. I love the Burgess Shale exhibit in that part of the musuem. Almost as much as the fake bull mummy in the anthro section. It isn’t a real mummified bull. The relatives of the rich guy in question just wrapped up a bull skeleton to look like a bull mummy so they didn’t have to buy enough chemicals to preserve an actual bull carcass. Like a fake Rolex, ancient style. My favorite item in the Smithsonian (that I have found so far).
The old argument was: The Sun revolves around “Thee Earth”
The current argument is: Life revolves around heterosexual
animalshumane beings“Run Galileo,…run!”
Eh, I suppose I was saying that you -could- argue evolution was geared towards creating humanity without dismissing evolution entirely. Same goes for a soul really.
I agree that evolution was simply random - but it could be easily viewed the other way.
And I suppose that’s why I get annoyed at the evolution deniers. There’s no real reason to deny it. Science has shown fairly conclusively that it happens, has happened, and is happening. It’s a pretty damned miraculous and incredible process and if you believe in a “God” it’s easy enough to conclude that he set the whole process in motion. The creation of all life on earth by god through the process of evolution is -MORE- miraculous than the idea of him conjuring up full-grown men and beasts at his whim. One shows a scale of thought and intelligence that, if it truly exists, is beyond comprehension.
That “first replication” could have happened by pure chance, then hand of god, or some space pirate with a chemistry set. You’re right, we don’t know the exact sequence of events, which is why it’s ambiguous enough for a faith filled individual to say “god did it” and leave it at that (same with the big bang, really). No need to call my mother a monkey or tell me I’m an idiot for believing that humanity is -still- evolving and changing today.
Why can’t we evolve out of politics ?
“Why can’t we evolve out of politics ?”
Once you get a taste for flinging feces from your perch, there’s no turning back.
“and if you believe in a “God” it’s easy enough to conclude that he set the whole process in motion.”
Well said. And any good agnostic should always hold that freaky possibility open, imo.
“humanity is -still- evolving and changing today.”
But barring any massive die-off of humans, there isn’t too much happening that would make natural selection kick in for humans right now. In other words, humans won’t evolve or change again until something comes along to kill off those who were not the ‘fittest’ for whatever deadly environment we encounter. Me, I’m hoping that tobacco use has so mutated my genes that I will somehow make it through the coming apocalypse unscathed. As will my children, of course.
“…and if you believe in a “God” it’s easy enough to conclude that he set the whole process in motion.”
Please detail this thought…
let’s talk about “intelligent design”, where all the “gaps” are filled in with faith.
Visualize human reproduction mechanism’s…“intelligent design” indeed!
My wife:
http://i.imgur.com/Biav6.jpg
If that isn’t an example of intelligent design, I don’t know what is.
Intelligent design is not science because it has an unfalsifiable (ie untestable) claim in it - that God did it.
Maybe he did, maybe he didn’t - but science is about finding out how the mechanisms of the physical world work, not ascribing the mechanisms to black-box, finger-snapping higher powers and leaving it at that.
Religious fundamentalists always try to redefine scientific thought to their own image — i.e., that of a belief system, not a way to best explain empirical evidence.
Texas white-hat cowboy / Jesus as a pard / College cheerleader,…boy = Fundamental building blocks for wannabe National “I’m the Decider!”
Aggie Yell Leaders:
The Yell Leaders use a variety of hand signals, called “pass-backs,” to direct and intensify the crowds. One of the most notable former Aggie Yell Leaders is Texas Governor Rick Perry.
I’ve got some “Hand signals” to give him some direction.
There is a very good reason nobody questions Obama much on religion: He has the political sense and common decency to avoid bringing up the subject.
Gov. Rick Perry and Evolution
Here we go. A mother urged her son yesterday to ask Perry about evolution. He said, ““It’s a theory that’s out there. It’s got some gaps in it..”
The left goes nuts. But the truth is Obama believes the same thing. If a reporter were to ask Obama if he believe God created the earth, I am almost positive he would say “Yes.” If they asked if he believed in evolution, he would also say, “Yes.” So, Obama also believes there are “some gaps” in the evolutionary theory (a better question would be, “Pres. Obama, do you believe we evolved from apes? I would love to see him dance around that one), but don’t worry, no reporter ever will ask him.
Funny how Obama is never asked religious questions. No one every asks specifics on his Christian belief. The last few weeks Michele Bachman fielded a host of religious based questions, including Dick Gregory asking ““God has guided your decisions in life. Would God guide your decisions that you would make as president of the United States?” As Obama ever been asked these types of questions? Had Gregory ever asked Obama about praying with pastors about the debt ceiling vote? No. They just want to catch a GOP candidate saying something they can distort as religiously fanatic.
…
Dear Gawd,
Please keep America safe from religious extremists during these difficult times.
Sincerely,
Professor “Don’t Get Stucco” Bear
Agree about the republican nitwits. As election nears you will see Obama in preacher mode again as last time around but it’s refreshing that he hasn’t pandered much after becoming president.
I agree with you on the preacher mode. You will still hear the MLK-accent (for lack of a better term) in some of his campaign speeches. But at least give him credit for not preaching about religion…
he does do that preacher accent sometimes, i’ve heard it too
Yes, yet another front man to keep the sheeple fighting among themselves. Let’s not play into this, OK? The guy is GWB 2.0. Fahgeddaboudhim.
i am a christian.
i hate politics and christianity co-mingling.
i tell any christopatublican (christian, patriot, republican) that i believe the american flag is a false idol.
that either shuts them up…or gets the smart ones thinking.
PB,
With all due respects, I think the only thing God is really interested in is our reliance and communication with Him. That is why He created us.
He uses all of the useless politicians to carry out His plan, which in this case is the financial destruction of our culture, which will bring about a deeper reliance on Him.
Lip
So God is a lonely and insecure being?
Poor God.
I think it actually reflects the separate cultures we have in this country. People in the conservative red states tend to talk about religion a lot. They’ll discuss their beliefs at the office with co-workers or even with total strangers that they find themselves sitting next to an airplane. Folks in the more liberal blue states tend to think of religion as a more private matter that is discussed at church or with family members and close friends. They appreciate the spearation of church and state.
And Mike there are some of us who believe the god of the bible was nothing more then a glorified Capt. Kirk, populating interesting planets.
They’ll discuss their beliefs at the office with co-workers or even with total strangers that they find themselves sitting next to an airplane.
All the more reason to carry a pair of noise-cancelling earmuffs.
And, speaking of which, here’s a question for our resident aircraft mechanic: Fixer, what brand do you recommend? I’m looking for muffs like the people on the flightline use.
Any of the foam ones are okay.
If you need headsets for listening to something, go with the Bose noise cancelling ones. They are the ones that all the pilot’s want, after they’ve borrowed/used a set.
Especially when flying anything with a noisy cabin/cockpit (DH-125/Hawker 700……about mandatory to have them in that airplane)
If you need headsets for listening to something, go with the Bose noise cancelling ones. They are the ones that all the pilot’s want, after they’ve borrowed/used a set.
Thanks, X-GSfixr!
I think the Bose would be nice and polite for the setting that I’d like to use them in. That would be in doing concert photography.
I’ve built up quite a portfolio — more than 100 musical acts — and I’m promoting it to the photo editors of major publications. And I’ll have you know that the photo editor of Billboard magazine is opening my e-mails — how ’bout that!
So, if I should be so fortunate as to land a shooting assignment from one of these majors, well, you know what that means. Gotta be right up close to the stage and those speakers. I want my ears to be protected.
If you are worried about your ears, stay away from Ted Nugent.
He played locally back in 1977-78 at the pro football stadium. One of my buddies went; said his ears were ringing for three days.
Cops were getting noise complaints from 20 miles away. Said a few years later in an interview that it was one of his proudest moments.
Many years ago when I did sound engineering in concerts and night clubs, I used earplugs. These were not ordinary earplugs. They were very comfortable and made of something flexible. Inside them were metal transducers which greatly reduced the sound level.
They were specifically designed to allow the frequencies of normal speech through more than the blocked frequencies. Came in handy! If I remember the name, I’ll let you know.
This blog is awesome. Wish I could meet you Prof. Bear.
Thanks Ben!
China Housing Bubble: Couples Faking Divorce to Buy More Homes
By IB Times Staff Report | August 18, 2011 10:09 AM EDT
As America tries to recover from its housing bubble burst, China’s housing bubble is blowing up. The latest: Chinese couples are faking divorce so they can borrow more money to buy more second and third homes, trying to seize upon rising prices.
In the effort to curb the growing housing bubble, the Chinese government has tried to initiate actions to make getting second mortgages harder. The government raised the down payment for second mortgages to make them harder to obtain, and about 40 Chinese cities have begun to limit apartment purchases to two per family, according to a story from Bloomberg.
The government, the story says, has also asked commercial banks to quit giving loans to third-time home buyers.
Chinese citizens are behaving just like Americans did when the housing bubble blew up here — seeing housing buys as fast-appreciating assets. They want second homes, and even third homes as prices rise. And they aren’t interested in the government’s actions to slow their efforts.
…
You don’t need a crystal ball to foretell that this won’t end well. With the turds in EURO-Land and the US swirling ever faster in the bowl it won’t be too long before chinese exports will take a major hit. That will probably suffice to destabilize the housing bubble that is a decade in the making. That will be very interesting.
I don’t think the Chinese have a safety net either, do they? They won’t buy made-in-China products because they need to save up for their own retirement and health care, especially since they don’t have hordes of children to take care of them.
I’ve been saying for years already that the Chinese housing is following the U.S. housing bubble with a five-year lag. By that timing, it should be ready to pop any day now, as the U.S. bubble popped in 2006.
And we’ll soon find out that the loans for all of these Chinese mortgages were turned into MBS by the banksters, sold as “AAA”, and insured by AIG.
At least their government is trying to slow the growth of the bubble. We had Greenspan and Bush who were both of the opinion that bubbles were good.
“The government, the story says, has also asked commercial banks to quit giving loans to third-time home buyers.”
China might want to stop the building rather than deal with a symptom that seems almost irrelevant at this point. You’ve go whole new cities that could house millions of people and are sitting largely vacant, yet the concern is over third-time buyers? If they were fifth-time buyers, they couldn’t soak up all that inventory. Just who is going to buy all of those vacant units and at what price?
I just read an article stating that Chinese buyers are snapping up US houses, that this phenomenon is turning the market around, and that I need to buy now to avoid being priced out of the market. Maybe thatś why their new cities are empty ?
Help is on the way August 26th? What exactly do commentators like this guy think the Fed can do at this juncture?
On the verge
Friday, 19 August 2011 9:45am
By Benjamin Ong | In Economics
The storm after the calm. Just when we thought financial markets have shaken off the high anxiety of the past week, teeth gnashing returns.
Blood’s again been spilled on the trading dance floors of commodity markets and most major equity markets around the world.
The S&P 500 dropped by 4.5% last night, the Euro Stoxx 50 lost 5.3%, the FTSE 100 shed 4.5% while we’re all asleep.
…
It would have been so easy to pooh-pooh Morgan Stanley’s fresh fearless forecast if not for negative US stats released at the same time MS whispered ‘R’.
No, I am not referring to the up again down again weekly jobless claims. It was down last week, remember? And financial markets concluded that no US recession is in the offing. It was up last night, so it’s recession one more time baby.
It’s also not data showing another big drop in US existing home sales, down 3.5% in July. We already know that US housing remains in the cactus basket.
What got my attention - perhaps, even shivers on my skin - is the freefall in the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing outlook survey. The index dropped like a stone to minus 30.7 in August - the lowest reading since March 2009 — from plus 3.2 in July.
This is worrying because my records show - which dates back to 1968 — that readings in the order of minus 20 and below have always coincided with US recessions.
Now, I must confess, I’m beginning to sweat.
If you and I know this, the Fed does too. I don’t think it’ll simply twiddle its thumbs and let the economy tank without at least trying something… anything - it promised it would.
We might not have long to wait. Jackson Hole is just a few sleepless nights away. That’s on 26 August.
…another liquidity injection? The last one was a smashing success.
/sarcasm off
The problem is INFLATION is showing up at uncomfortable levels by Fed standards in both consumer and producer prices, even as the stock market and bond market are sending strong signs of an approaching double-dip (or is that another financial tsunami headed to shore?). Several FOMC members have recently cast dissenting votes on FOMC action to keep interest rates at current levels through 2013. So it is not clear that QE3 would be easy to implement, or that it would have its intended stimulative effect.
Well, the Fed can print money, give it to Wall Street, and drive up food and energy prices more.
I’m sure that will help Main Street meet the monthly nut on their debt payments and prevent cascade default of bad debt.
Everbody who doesn’t live within a 50 mile radius of DC or Wall Street hasn’t seen anything to make them believe the last recession ever ended.
This guy’s writing is full of catchy (and somewhat bizarre) clichés! Either he’s hopped up on caffeine or English is his second language. What the hell is a cactus basket? It sounds like a euphemism for male genitalia.
Is the SEC Covering Up Wall Street Crimes?
Rolling Stone - Matt Taibbi
August 17, 2011
For the past two decades, according to a whistle-blower at the SEC who recently came forward to Congress, the agency has been systematically destroying records of its preliminary investigations once they are closed. By whitewashing the files of some of the nation’s worst financial criminals, the SEC has kept an entire generation of federal investigators in the dark about past inquiries into insider trading, fraud and market manipulation against companies like Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and AIG. With a few strokes of the keyboard, the evidence gathered during thousands of investigations – “18,000 … including Madoff,” as one high-ranking SEC official put it during a panicked meeting about the destruction – has apparently disappeared forever into the wormhole of history.
“Is the SEC Covering Up Wall Street Crimes?”
Does a crab have a watertight a**hole?
This reminds me of back when Arthur Levitt wrote his book: “Take on the Street, What Wall Street and Corporate America Don’t Want You To Know.”
One commentator quipped that he should have renamed it: “Take on the Street, Because I Sure as H*ll Didn’t.”
In the digital world, nothing disappears forever. If they wanted to, they could “find” those files.
But they don’t want to.
Bill
Maybe this was done Before the digital age, and they didn’t get around to digitizing all the old files or just ran out of money..
“for the past two decades”
Plenty of computer files in 1990, especially in banking.
You would be stunned at how much paper records are still used in government. There may be memos about the records that are electronically available, but you can’t bring a case to court based on someone’s summary of destroyed records.
It is almost impossible to get enough money budgeted to properly update a computer system around here. Almost impossible.
Not to mention electronic records are rather easy to “destroy”.
A few clicks of the mouse and it’s gone. I’m certain an agency like the SEC is going to utilize a file deletion system that incorporates clean wipe and covering of sectors with random data to prevent any unauthorized recovery of deleted files.
Hell, I have that technology on my home PC.
Even without that tech, re-writes on the same drives wind up covering up old data just fine. Try to run a file recovery on your disk drive -right now- and you’ll find mostly fairly recent files are recoverable and anything older is either hopelessly corrupt or just plain missing.
OTOH, it won’t surprise me if some lower/middle level lawyer or manager didn’t have them backed up somewhere.
It is almost impossible to get enough money budgeted to properly update a computer system around here. Almost impossible.”
Like Air Traffic Control have they ever updated that system ?
It was really old back when i worked in a center in Palmdale around 1982. Used to go out at times go all dark the room housing the computers was massive
This reminds me of back when Arthur Levitt wrote his book: “Take on the Street, What Wall Street and Corporate America Don’t Want You To Know.”
One commentator quipped that he should have renamed it: “Take on the Street, Because I Sure as H*ll Didn’t.”
I remember that quip.
And I also read Levitt’s book. What really got me going was his insistence on investor responsibility. That investors had to be responsible enough to verify the soundness of the companies they were investing in.
I darn near levitated out of my chair while I was reading the book.
This was back in the days of Enron and its aftermath, and that was a case where the company books were cooked to here and Jupiter and back. How were investors supposed to take responsibility in that case? Riddle me that, Mr. Levitt.
What he’s saying is that you have to assume you’re dealing with swindlers. It’ not like going to a bank and depositing your money, assuming that the full force of the society’s laws are going to protect you. When dealing with Wall Street, he’s saying you have to approach them like you would street hustlers.
Is the SEC Covering Up Wall Street Crimes?
In a word, yes.
I read this story last night, and it’s a good one. And I dearly hope that it gains traction the way Taibbi’s “giant vampire squid” story (about Goldman Sachs) did.
BTW, if you haven’t read Taibbi’s latest book, Griftopia, do so. It’s good.
With regards from your HBB Librarian…
More Bad News For Bank Of America - Fraud Liability May Jump $9 Billion If New York Judge Sides With MBIA
BofA will be expected to do a capital raise, and they still have a stake in China Construction Bank, which they have been attempting to offload (reportedly for weeks) for $17 billion. So they have a couple options before going hat in hand to Geithner for another bailout.
The initial court hearing was today.
—
Bloomberg
Bank of America may face billions of dollars more in liability for faulty mortgages if a judge agrees with insurer MBIA that the lender must buy back loans even if the errors didn’t cause a borrower’s default.
If New York Supreme Court Justice Eileen Bransten and judges in similar cases across the country rule that the issue of “causation” doesn’t apply — meaning it’s enough to show that the loan was improperly made — it “could significantly impact” Bank of America’s potential costs, the bank said in a regulatory filing this month.
Such court defeats may add as much as $9 billion to what Bank of America owes bond insurers, according to hedge fund Branch Hill Capital, which is betting against its stock and has invested in MBIA. A victory for Armonk, New York-based MBIA may also strengthen claims by mortgage-securities investors that want the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank to pay more than the $8.5 billion it’s offered them as a settlement.
“You don’t have to wait until you’re in a severe accident before you return the car with bad brakes,” said David Grais, a partner in New York at Grais & Ellsworth LLP who represents investors objecting to the bank’s proposed settlement with Countrywide Financial Corp. mortgage-bond holders.
Hearing Today
Any ruling on the issue, which was to be the subject of a hearing today in state court in Manhattan, may come later than anticipated because the proceeding was postponed until October. The decision may intensify settlement talks between bond insurers like MBIA and other banks that issued securities based on faulty mortgages.
“If they lose that case, then our certainty of getting reimbursed becomes a lot higher,” Dominic Frederico, Assured’s chief executive officer, said in an interview. Bank of America agreed in April to a deal it valued at $1.6 billion with Hamilton, Bermuda-based Assured to settle its mortgage claims.
Since the start of 2010, Bank of America’s cushion for future losses on repurchases of mortgages that never matched their promised quality has ballooned from $4 billion to $17.8 billion even as it made payments in settlements with debt guarantors such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Exclusive: Goldman Sachs VP Changed His Name, Now Advances Goldman Lobbying Interests As Top Staffer To Darrell Issa
By Lee Fang on Aug 18, 2011 Thinkprogress.org
Peter Haller, also known as Peter Simonyi, a former Goldman Sachs VP now working for Chairman Issa to block regulations on Goldman Sachs
Has Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) turned the House Oversight Committee into a bank lobbying firm with the power to subpoena and pressure government regulators? ThinkProgress has found that a Goldman Sachs vice president changed his name, then later went to work for Issa to coordinate his effort to thwart regulations that affect Goldman Sachs’ bottom line.
In July, Issa sent a letter to top government regulators demanding that they back off and provide more justification for new margin requirements for financial firms dealing in derivatives. A standard practice on Capitol Hill is to end a letter to a government agency with contact information for the congressional staffer responsible for working on the issue for the committee. In most cases, the contact staffer is the one who actually writes such letters. With this in mind, it is important to note that the Issa letter ended with contact information for Peter Haller, a staffer hired this year to work for Issa on the Oversight Committee.
Issa’s demand to regulators is exactly what banks have been wishing for. Indeed, Goldman Sachs has spent millions this year trying to slow down the implementation of the new rules. In the letter, Issa explicitly mentions that the new derivative regulations might hurt brokers “such as Goldman Sachs.”
Haller, as he is now known, went by the name Peter Simonyi until three years ago. Simonyi adopted his mother’s maiden name Haller in 2008 shortly after leaving Goldman Sachs as a vice president of the bank’s commodity compliance group. In a few short years, Haller went from being in charge of dealing with regulators for Goldman Sachs to working for Congress in a position where he made official demands from regulators overseeing his old firm.
People who work for regulatory agencies and political office should not EVER be allowed to work for for or profit from companies that they oversaw/dealt with. Same for those who go from business to politics.
It is beyond corrupt at this point. Time to clean house!
When ethically-challenged people are elected to Congress (Issa, e.g.), it shouldn’t be surprising that they hire people that are even more ethically-challenged (Simonyi/Haller). But changing one’s name to try to hide one’s identity takes to it to a whole new level.
The current system is corrupt to the core. Voters need to be better-informed and more-engaged and do their job, preferably at the primary level. I think publicly-funded elections with strict limits on spending could do much to reduce the corrupting influence of money on elections. Combining that with strict walls between public and private sector employment where potential conflicts of interest exist would be even better. But how do you get enough votes to do that given the current corrupt system and poorly-informed and disengaged voters?
But changing one’s name to try to hide one’s identity takes to it to a whole new level.
“TrueDeceiver’s™” + “TruePurity™” + “TruePathtoPro$perity™” =
$mirking “TrueZealot’$™”
But changing one’s name to try to hide one’s identity takes to it to a whole new level.
You mean like when Phillip Morris changed its name to Altria and Blackwater changed its name to Xe? Corporations are people too ya know…
Corporations do it to to “re-brand” or whatever. They don’t actually think that people don’t know they are the same organization as the old one. Over 5 to 10 years, people may not care, but they are aware they can’t really hide it.
If I had to guess, this guy was hoping that by changin his name, he could actually prevent a google search from revealing his old association and that no one would go a lot deeper than that to figure out his angle. I wonder how his official bio reads. Everybody has one if they ever do speaking engagements. Traditionally, they are about three sentences. Usually do contain names of universities, but often are scrubbed of names of former employers. When I did my first speech I asked whether to include any of my law firm or other employer names (since I hadn’t been in place long enough to have a long list of recognizable projects) and the answer was along the lines of “Oh, I don’t think that is necessary.” I took the hint.
When I did my first speech I asked whether to include any of my law firm or other employer names (since I hadn’t been in place long enough to have a long list of recognizable projects) and the answer was along the lines of “Oh, I don’t think that is necessary.” I took the hint.
True, dat.
I’ll be doing a 10-minute presentation at a storytelling event here in Tucson. For my bio, I decided to set some bait. As in, I want to be invited back for another presentation, and here’s what I’d like to talk about.
In the meantime, I’m rehearsing like crazy. I’ve just about gotten my script memorized. I need to do more work on engaging with an audience.
Ya see, Slim, your bio and my bio had very different purposes. Mine was supposed to make people believe ahead of time that despite having no name recognition in DC, that I had enough name recognition to be worth their time - the topic (not chosen by me) was of almost no interest to anybody. The names of my former employers could have been helpful in that pursuit, but as a government official, displaying that information was not appropriate, so I didn’t. But I asked if I should, just in case.
And, break a leg on your gig. We know you’ll knock ‘em dead.
We should just do away with elections. Then corporate America could bid for the jobs and the money could be used to pay down the debt.
I love that he changed his name. This tells you they know what they are doing is evil and they don’t want the world to know.
I wouldn’t trust anyone named Haller.
Why? Because when I was six years old, an neighbor boy pushed me out of a neighbor’s treehouse.
I landed head-first on a slate paver and had to be taken to the hospital for stitches. The Haller family took no responsibility for what happened, and our family never spoke to them again.
We’ll need some soothing and reassuring words from TPTB that everything is under control. Our jobless recovery is right on track. We need to close the DOW at or over 11,000 going into the weekend, bring on the pumps.
Merced ladder manufacturing plant to close
August 18, 2011
FRESNO, Calif. (KFSN) — A large ladder manufacturing plant in the North Valley is preparing to shut down and dozens will soon be out of work.
Werner is closing its Merced division manufacturing operations because of what they call the “difficult economic climate.”
Action News obtained a letter from the Merced City Manager to the city council announcing the closure and with it the loss of 140 production jobs.
A ladder’s cost in California is roughly 40% liability, IIRC.
Too bad. I’ll miss those crazy ladder flying off the back of gardening trucks speeding down the carpool lane of the 605. Sniff.
:’(
It will definitely come to $800 if there is a recession.
???
Paging combotechie…
NEW YORK (AP) — Stores are trying everything they can think of to disguise the fact that you’re going to pay more for clothes this fall.
Some are using less fabric and calling it the new look. Others are adding cheap stitching and trumpeting it as a redesign. And the buttons on that blouse? Chances are you’re not going to think it’s worth paying several dollars more for the shirt just to have them.
Retailers are raising prices on merchandise an average of 10 percent across-the-board this fall in an effort to offset their rising costs for materials and labor. But merchants are worried that cash-strapped customers who are weighed down by economic woes will balk at price hikes. So, retailers are trying to raise prices without tipping off unsuspecting customers.
“Let the consumer trickery begin,” said Brian Sozzi, Wall Street Strategies retail analyst
http://news.yahoo.com/higher-prices-big-trend-back-school-040431658.html
There are two messages here:
One message, the inflation one, shows prices going are going up.
The other message, the deflation one, shows that customers do not have much money.
So which is it? Inflation or deflation?
I vote for deflation because if customers do not have the money to buy then it doesn’t matter what the price is. In this case the merchants realize the customers do not have a lot of money to pay the higher prices so they are are resorting to trickery in an effort to get the customers to fork over some dough anyway.
Tricking customers is an excellent way to shrink your customer base, and tactics such as this is what one should expect to see in defationary times as retailers are more interested in surviving than expanding their numbers of customers.
In economic expansions the pie gets larger and larger and merchants want to get larger and larger pieces of this expanding pie so their emphasis is on growth hence they want to please the customers.
In economic contractions the pie shrinks so the merchants attention is now directed from one of growth to one of survival. If surviving screws the customer then so be it - the merchant really doesn’t have a choice.
If you have to “vote” for one or the other, then it’s probably not either.
In the clothing world, I have noticed thinner material in T-shirts (in fashion parlance they call them “tissue” tees.) Buttonless sweaters have been in style for a couple years now.
The trend in the article is going in the other direction — they upgrade the clothing, but they charge more than the upgrade costs. It’s the equivalent and putting in a $22K Home Despot kitchen and charging $50K more for the house.
I buy more classic stuff from catalots, and they don’t bother with tricks — the price just plain goes up.
Speculation is the opposite of investing — of which there is little of nowadays from the corporate sector, let alone government and retail stock buyers. Corporations are instead hoarding cash out of concern that slow global economic growth will slam profits.
Such a miserly attitude can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Faber noted that corporate earnings will likely disappoint stockholders across the board, including commodity shares, with the exception of traditional defensive sectors such as health care, consumer staples and utilities.
Moreover, one of the main ways corporations are spending money — on mergers and acquisitions rather than on hiring and equipment — is ultimately inflationary, Faber said.
“The corporate sector is not spending much money on capital investments and new investments — that’s why they have this huge hoard of cash,” Faber said. “There will be many more takeovers and industry consolidation in the years ahead. It destroys jobs, but this is what will happen. As industries consolidate, they get more pricing power, and the cost of living increases.”
Of course, Faber points out, while such dealings might not be ideal for Main Street, it can sustain Wall Street, which leads Faber to a prognosis for stocks that may surprise the doctor’s patients.
Again inflationary or deflationary?
Company A buys Company B and shuts down it’s manufacturing so that they can keep prices a little higher.
Less and lower quality goods for a shrinking consumer base.
I say deflationary. More and more unemployment and poverty followed by more and more downsizing = more adn more unemployment and poverty followed by more and more downsizing. Down the toilet we go.
Better get more tax cuts to the elite quick, better lower their borrowing costs so they can take over collapsing competition and shut them down faster??
I’m in the middle of reading Mauldin’s “Endgame”. I’m just to the inflation portion of the show.
I think what we’ll see is this deflation/inflation tug of war, until that goes away with people feeling better (or more numbed to the fear), and we see an increase monetary velocity, and then what we’ll see is real inflation. The Fed is laying the groundwork for it now, and it only being held back only by people keeping their cash under a mattress.
Frankly, it’s one of the only ways the Republicans can tax their constituents more without saying so, and the only way the Democrats and widen the tax base without saying so.
There is an interesting dynamic at work right now. Speculation is pushing the cost of raw materials higher; the same with energy. Third world labour is having some success pushing their wages higher. Supply side is pushing for higher prices.
The demand side has a much different story. First world consumers are tapped. The modest improvements in third world demand won’t offset drops in the first world, except maybe for food and other necessities.
Expect short term price increases matched with significant drops in sales volume. I suppose that’s stagflation. However, the drop in volume will soon wipe out the supply side pricing pressures as world wide employment erodes and costs of energy and raw materials decline.
Long term picture. As we move towards equalization in living standards around the world, deflation and stagnation will be the major trend.
I think your right, Al. This is why I do not think price is a good an indicator of inflation or deflation, but I think money flow is.
It is money flow that should be followed, not price.
“As we move towards equalization in living standards around the world”
That is certainly the picture looking back, fueled by the biggest credit expansion ever. That ladder is out of rungs. Depressions hit the exporter the hardest.
World wide the size of the pie stays about the same. Unfortunately a bunch of other people just sat down at the table. Expect your piece of the pie to become smaller. So far we’ve been able to paper over that unpleasant fact with more credit. Those days are drawing to a close.
Rising prices + lower wages = decreased standard of living
“World wide the size of the pie stays about the same.”
World wide much of the growing size of the pie was borrowed from the future.
Now that the future has become the present the size of the pie is beginning to shrink. The only way to get the pie to grow as it did is did in the past is to borrow more of it from the future as was done in the past.
But this time the future isn’t cooperating.
Speculation is pushing the cost of raw materials higher; the same with energy. Third world labour is having some success pushing their wages higher. Supply side is pushing for higher prices.
This is due mostly to currency changes. Foreign labor is not forcing foreign management to increase their pay. Of course this increase in apparent spending power is gobbled up by higher food and energy prices which consume about 50% of their paycheck. In reality their gains are being funneled right to food and fuel speculators.
I would also add:
1. Weak dollar is causing the increase in costs to Americans (in dollar terms) for any good that can otherwise be traded. This is especially true for food, energy and commodities.
2. Playing off of these issues, one area where we will see inflation is in rents. We are seeing this currently play itself out with apartments across the country, and more selectively, office in Silicon Valley, and industrial in the Inland Empire, and, aside from specific pockets, it will play itself out next in industrial, then retail, then office generally.
Construction of commercial properties was not as out of control as residential. At this point though, like single-family housing, construction of new buildings has essentially stopped. In the near/medium term, buildings are being slowly dumped onto the market from financial institutions at prices that are below replacement cost (far below in some cases). This will keep a lid on rent growth, especially with high vacancies. However, as vacancies fall, prices for those buildings will be bid up (keeping them out of the hands of banks to begin with), and rents will rise.
Assuming we still have the weak dollar and high commodity prices, rents will need to be significantly higher than they are today in order to cause investors to invest in new buildings.
How those higher rents trickle into the hands of consumers, who knows, but it will be either slightly shrinking margins for businesses, or higher prices for consumers.
As vacancies fall? Maybe in Manhattan and Silly-Con Valley?
Sorry Realtor LIAR, vacancies will not fall in the other 99.9% of the country. Unless there is a new economic paradigm based on candle and pirate stores occupying all now vacant strip retail, it aint happening.
The pattern is this:
1. Economic shock, companies shed people, and space;
2. Real Estate turmoil, distressed properties have basis reset (through foreclosures and/or resale), game of musical chairs as landlords of new cheap buildings attract tenants from their existing space by lowering rents; market rents wind their way down, starting as vacancies are rising, but even in the first part of vacancies falling/occupancy increases;
3. Real Estate recovery, with positive absorption of space, eventually the game of musical chairs slows down as there is less and less vacant space with the positive absorption, rents rise to justify new development, new development occurs.
We are at phase 2/3 right now, with the predominance of markets still in phase 2, but finding a bottom in terms of rents.
Data:
From CoStar, US Industrial market absorbed 32 million square feet in the second quarter, LOWERING vacancy rate to 9.9%.
From CoStar, US Retail market absorbed 11 million square feet in the second quarter; vacancy rate stable at 7.1%.
From Colliers, US Office market absorbed 9.9 million square feet in the second quarter; vacancy rate fell slightly to 15.3%.
Look at commercial property REIT vacancy rates (published quarterly, if not more frequently via special investor presentations). They cover a lot of the country.
A couple of examples:
DDR - Stable occupancy rate for years at about 95% pre-crash, fell to about 90.5% at the worst. Now has clawed it’s way back up to 93%. Rents have risen off the bottom.
FR - Stable occupancy rate was 91/92%, fell to about 81% at worst. Now has clawed its way back to 86%.
Positive absorption of space is a good thing…like the jobs numbers, it means that more space was newly occupied than newly vacated, with the jobs corollary being that more people get jobs than lose them. Only with jobs, you constantly have new people entering the workforce, making the pace of jobs recovery critical to lowering unemployment rates. With buildings, as long as there isn’t appreciable construction, you can lower vacancy rates even with small amounts of positive absorption.
This is an important fact: You can have a commercial real estate recovery WITHOUT a drop in unemployment rate…as long as there is positive job creation, and with it, positive absorption of commercial space, and little new construction.
Unless you believe there to be a vast conspiracy where all public REITs and providers of data are sending out bogus financials, vacancies are falling generally. Industrial is leading the pack, retail is gradually getting better, and office is lagging (no surprise).
I’m not saying that things are wonderful, but gradually getting better. You’ll note that all of my commentary (with the exception of apartments, and Silicon Valley/Inland Empire industrial) is in the future. Over the next 3-5 years, you will see the broad rent growth that I’m talking about…not the next year except in select pockets where vacancy rates have fallen due to local market conditions.
Then why do other poorer countries have much lower rent and housing costs? In Mexico, I could rent a 2 bedroom apartment in a major city for $500. Same apartment in a major US city would be $1000-2000. We have lower wages here, more of out lower incomes are eaten up by higher transportation and food cost and rent still goes up? Where would the money come from to pay more? How do we get screwed both ways but poorer countries don’t?
“We have lower wages here”
That is not true: from the Mexico Wikipedia article:
“According to a 2008 UN report the average income in a typical urbanized area of Mexico was $26,654, a rate higher than advanced nations like South Korea or Taiwan, while the average income in rural areas just miles away was only $8,403, a rate comparable to developing countries such as Russia or Turkey.[118] Daily minimum wages are set annually by law and determined by zone; $57.46 Mexican pesos ($4.52 USD) in Zona A (Baja California, Federal District, State of Mexico, and large cities), $55.84 Mexican pesos ($4.39 USD) in Zone B (Sonora, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, and Jalisco), and $54.47 Mexican pesos ($4.29 USD) in Zone C (all other states)[119]”
Note DAILY minimum wage of less than $5.
And from the CIA World Factbook:
“Per capita income is roughly one-third that of the US; income distribution remains highly unequal.”
You are correct though, with lower incomes, it would put a dampening effect on rent growth. More people would double-up in apartments (which was what was happening in 2009/2010), leading to continued higher vacancy rates, prolonging the time until there would be new development.
For commercial space it is harder to prolong taking on new space. If you are a user of warehouses, if you have more product to store because you are selling more product, you simply need more space, you can’t choose to pack more product into the same amount of space–or move in with a neighbor.
Over time, changes in the way we do business has changed space needs (higher clear heights with warehouse buildings-stacking product higher and higher, telecommunication with dummy desks for offices, thus reducing space need per employee, outsourcing, smaller footprint retail space with much of the product being sold via the internet, like Apple Stores–more warehouses needed, less retail space, etc.), but while the type of space needed can change over time, space needs still generally go up over time.
I meant than we have lower wages here compared to the past. We have high unemployment and people are taking jobs for lower pay. So there is a lower supply of money for rent, due to wages coming down and less money available after food and transportation cost. So I am wondering, where is the money to pay higher rent coming from? If we are going to be on a more even level with other countries due to globalization, why would we get all the bad stuff and none of the good? Bad stuff = lower wages and higher prices on food and gas and good stuff = lower prices on rent
We have slower household formation, but still household formation. We have less disposable income, but still have some disposable income.
Some of the ability to pay comes from two singles getting married and moving in together. Some of the ability to pay comes from a person getting out of college and getting a decent job that allows them to pay the rent. Some of the increase comes from two people who just have a high school diploma and are still struggling (which is the primary source of stagnant wage growth), deciding to share an apartment to split the ever increasing cost. Some money comes from people shifting some of their disposable income from one thing to rent.
It is difficult to look at averages, and then apply those averages to an assumption about rent growth. What is the source of stagnant wages? Nobody getting raises? Or some people getting raises, and some people losing jobs, with others getting jobs with lower wages?
Ultimately there will be rent growth in a market if:
1. There is a little supply of vacant housing; and
2. A large percentage of renters in the area CAN afford to pay more.
As landlords push higher rents upon the overall population, they will lose some tenants who will seek cheaper housing (farther away, smaller, roommate situation, etc.). Over time, the landlords will be squeezing discretionary income from those who have it, and push those without discretionary income into worse living conditions.
With forever stagnant wages, forever high commodity prices, and continuing household formation, it is an ugly picture, but one where:
Average living conditions continue to deteriorate (as people transition to living conditions that they can afford), and there is continued upward pressure on rents, as simple math won’t justify new supply without those higher rents.
Don’t get me wrong, the rent increase picture looks WAY better with increasing incomes, but there will still be rent increases as long as vacancy rates are low, there is household formation, and new development is limited. Likewise, for that very same reason, I’m in many ways more bullish on commercial property rents in certain circumstances than residential, as for commercial tenants, typically rents represent a very small percentage of their cost structure. Already, we’ve seen some rents go from say, $2.50 per square foot per month, all the way down to $1psf at the worst times, back to $1.50 or $1.75…you wouldn’t see that same kind of swing for apartments (new development might require $1.90 to $2.00 to justify the cost).
In addition to my recent (future) comment (whenever it arrives):
This is yet another reason why the cheap dollar is screwing the average American. With the cheap dollar, energy and food is more expensive, and it is more expensive for materials for construction…so, they get squeezed from all directions as their dollars get funneled into fewer and fewer hands: food inflation, energy inflation, rent inflation.
Welcome to Stagflation.
Let’s see if they actually sell those clothes, or if they have to clearence them off at half-price. THEN we can make a decisions as to whether it is inflation or deflation that is winning.
I’ll say right now that they are going to have trouble selling their wares to the “consumers”. My daughter took her little cousin to our local mall yesterday and the place was empty! She went to Target and that place was empty too! She said there was one lady in line in front of her and the cashier had to keep deleting items off the bill due to the lack of money in the lady’s pocketbook! I haven’t seen that in YEARS!! I asked my nephew to keep an eye on how many kids have new clothes on when school starts this coming Monday. I bet very few will!
I asked my nephew to keep an eye on how many kids have new clothes on when school starts this coming Monday. I bet very few will!
I was one of those kids.
Not that my folks couldn’t afford to buy me new clothes. It was just that I couldn’t have cared less about fashion. And, if you met me now, you’d see that I haven’t changed.
Hahaha!! I was the one who had to have them but now I could care less. I very rarely buy new clothes and I get a new pair of shoes every 2 to 5 years depending on how worn out they look.
My wife just dropped $800 on back to school shopping for our two kids last weekend, and $350 at Costco for groceries a couple of days ago. Last evening I transferred $1,000 from checking to the credit card, and it’s already showing a $400+ balance this morning with new charges. It’s expensive raising a family.
$350 in food during one trip? I hope that included loading up a freezer or some stuff other than food, because that is one heck of a trip.
My wife just dropped $800 on back to school shopping for our two kids last weekend, and $350 at Costco for groceries a couple of days ago. Last evening I transferred $1,000 from checking to the credit card, and it’s already showing a $400+ balance this morning with new charges. It’s expensive raising a family.”
yes it is expensive. I get 1000 dollar plus Costco bills all the time now. I don’t even bother to check the charges my wife gives me anymore. As a matter of fact I gave her control of paying the bills so she sees how broke a familiy of 4 is on 85K a year in CA. Good thing I paid cash for my cars even better I sold my Townhome in 2006 and banked the money. Outside of my 401K I save nothing anymore.
I have seen “sale” ads for backpacks in sporting goods and department stores for BTS @ $19.95 as well as backpacks at the 99cent store for less than $1.
Who gets the most profit and who gets the most volume?
We’ve gotten used to smaller food packages at the same price as a sneaky way of raising prices. But using less fabric in clothing? Think of the obvious end game there.
Speaking of this - it’s been a -long- time since I bought cereal (severely lactose intolerant). Anyway, my son is hitting the age where cereal is a decent breakfast, so I went in search of some honey nut cheerios.
I grabbed the box off the shelf and went to put it into the cart, and realized, this thing is absolutely TINY.
Almost 3$ for this itty-bitty box of cereal? I could eat this much cereal in a -sitting- as a kid. Wtf happened to the big jumbo boxes of cereal that you could put your whole arm into as you searched for the packaged toy?
Went to grab the “big” box of cereal instead, but at almost 6$ I scrapped the whole plan and went to pick up more oatmeal/rice/fresh fruit instead.
You have to shop the sales. I recommend buy one/get one free sales. Go early in the week to buy a few boxes for now. Go near the end of the week to get a rain check or two.
My favorite is to use a buy one/get one free rain check when the cereal is on sale for a $1 or $2 less per box. Then layer a coupon (possibly doubled) on top of that. Doesn’t happen often, but you can get cereal that is usually over $5 a box for less than $2 a box if you time it right.
Helps if you don’t have to drive that far to get to different supermarkets and the circulars are delived to your mailbox.
Also the generics are much better than before.
If you live near a Target, their prices on the big boxes of cereal are better than at any supermarket I’ve seen.
I’ll have to check these ideas out - thanks everyone :).
Joe’s O’s!! - )
I’m one of those people who abhors shopping of any sort. Including the purchase of wearing apparel.
But when I do break down and buy something to wear, I usually bust the bank and pay top dollar. Why? Because well-made stuff lasts longer.
Matter of fact, I’m still wearing things I bought 20 years ago.
I’m going to agree here for men’s clothes, and disagree for women’s.
In my experience, the higher priced clothing I buy is almost universally high quality and long lasting. Quality stitching and dyes along with quality materials = longevity. If only my waistline would agree with me continuing to wear them year after year (it’s time to break out the road-bicycle and take a few inches off again).
I’ve still got a closet full of dress shirts/business slacks and suits from my past-life. Almost all of it is in the same shape it was when I bought it.
My wife on the other hand spends 3 figures+ on an outfit and it falls apart. Her most expensive blouse wound up with a hole in it the -first- time she had it cleaned. Don’t even get me started on expensive women’s shoes. I swear they go up in price based upon how soon they will self-destruct, or how unlikely it is that she will -EVER- wear them. There’s a set of 500$ knee-high boots in that closet that have never seen sunlight, right next to a set of 200$ heels that practically broke in half the first time she wore them.
Changed up my style for “ncinerate the student”. No more business slacks. Nowadays I’m in a bit of a “white” phase, wearing lots of white linen etc and enjoying the desert again. Still opt for the higher quality duds. Nothing quite like a nice tailored and comfortable pair of white linen pants/shirt on a 115F day. Wonderful stuff to be free of the corporate “ties”.
Believe it or not, since retiring, I still wear, in rotation and when I am not wearing shorts, three pairs of Dickies I bought in 1974 when I got into bartending. Bulletproof!
I buy Hawaiian shirts barely worn by guys who are now probably dead, at thrift shops. Doesn’t creep me out at all, thinking that if I died, I’d want my collection of $65 to $85 shirts that I bought new when I was working, to have a good home. I pay $3 to $5 and know a good one from a bad one. Number of shirts approaching my wife’s number of shoes. -
I buy Hawaiian shirts barely worn by guys who are now probably dead,
Obviously none worn by the current POTUS Kenyan Commander-in-Chef!
~ You see Wen said Plugs, we have thing called an electronic printing press and my old friend Sir Greasepan assures us that we can never default, we just keep printing. It’s so simple really, now lets get hammered on some Saki buddy and forget this BS!
ITEM: Biden Tells Wen ‘You Have Nothing to Worry About’ Over Debt
By Bloomberg News - Aug 19, 2011
Vice President Joe Biden told Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao his government doesn’t need to worry about the safety of Treasuries as the world’s biggest overseas holder of U.S. debt.
“U.S. Treasuries we’re going to take care of very closely, not merely because China owns 8 percent of them; Americans own 85 percent,” he said when the two men met today in Beijing, where he is on the second day of a tour of China. “Very sincerely, I want to make clear you have nothing to worry about,” Biden said, adding he and Wen shared an “absolute and mutual confidence in the U.S. economy.”
Wen had earlier told Biden he had sent a clear message to reassure the Chinese people regarding the safety of Treasuries. Biden’s trip follows the first ever downgrade of U.S. debt by Standard & Poor’s, which said political divisions in Washington were preventing the country from tackling its fiscal deficit.
“I have absolute, unequivocal confidence in the strength and vitality and the growth of the American economy,” Biden said. “No one’s ever made money betting against America.”
No one’s ever made money betting against America.
Better tell that to GS and Hank Paulson
George Soros has made billions betting against the dollar.
“No one’s ever made money betting against America.”
$tandard & gettingPoorer’s might be getting that me$$age 1st hand.
“My oh my…says Br’er Wabbit”… “It’s trouble that makes the monkey chew on hot peppers.”
heheeeheeeheehaahaaahaaheeehaahaaa… (Hwy50™)
S&P Faces Inquiry Over Mortgage Security
Ratings“Opinionation$”:by NPR Staff and Wires / August 18, 2011
The Justice Department would have to prove S&P did more than just give a bad opinion, NPR’s Tamara Keith told Melissa Block on All Things Considered.
“Ratings agencies have sort of a protected status. Their ratings are opinions, and opinions are protected by the First Amendment,” she said. “[The Justice Department would] have to prove that the statements were misleading or there were omissions and that S&P knew that it was doing that.”
If the department proves its case, “it certainly would be a significant indictment of Standard & Poor’s and their methods. Ratings matter inasmuch as the reputation of the rating agencies are sound,”
Something about this comment made me giggle so hard, I snorted water.
Liquids + HBB = Bad idea.
When will I ever learn?
unexpectedly unexpectedly unexpectedly unexpectedly unexpectedly unexpectedly unexpectedly unexpectedly
Home Sales Take A Sharp Turn Down
Sales Dropped 3.5% Last Month
By Blake Ellis
Posted: 8:18 am MDT August 18, 2011
Updated: 8:56 am MDT August 18, 2011
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Sales of existing homes fell unexpectedly in July, as strict lending and low appraisals prevented consumers from scooping up some of the cheapest houses since 1970.
Sales of previously owned homes tumbled 3.5% last month to an annual rate of 4.67 million, down from 4.84 million in June, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Economists had expected July sales to come in at a much higher rate of 4.87 million homes, according to consensus estimates from Briefing.com.
http://www.kfoxtv.com/news/28903541/detail.html -
Chavez Emptying Bank of England Vault as Venezuela Brings Back Gold Hoard
By Daniel Cancel and Nathan Crooks -
Aug 18, 2011 5:07 PM ET
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez ordered the central bank to repatriate $11 billion of gold reserves held in developed nations’ institutions such as the Bank of England as prices for the metal rise to a record.
Venezuela, which holds 211 tons of its 365 tons of gold reserves in U.S., European, Canadian and Swiss banks, will progressively return the bars to its central bank’s vault, Chavez said yesterday. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Barclays Plc (BARC), and Standard Chartered Plc (STAN) also hold Venezuelan gold, he said.
“We’ve held 99 tons of gold at the Bank of England since 1980. I agree with bringing that home,” Chavez said yesterday on state television. “It’s a healthy decision.”
Chavez, whose government depends on oil for 95 percent of its export revenue, is looking to diversify Venezuela’s cash reserves from U.S. and European banks to include investments in emerging markets including Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa, central bank President Nelson Merentes said yesterday. The world’s 15th-largest holder of gold is bringing back its gold after a 28 percent rally in the price this year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-18/chavez-emptying-bank-of-england-vault-as-venezuela-brings-back-gold-hoard.html - 95k -
BWHAHAHAHAHA! Pay up you limey turds.
And how much of that gold, once it is back in Venezuela, will mysteriously disappear?
Yes better keep it safe in that hands of WS????? I’ll be interested to see if they can produce it.
And how much of that gold, once it is back in Venezuela, will mysteriously disappear?
That was the very first thought to cross my mind.
Voted the most beautiful place in America: Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore. Wow. Just. Wow. Anyone here ever been there or heard of it before? Next summer, I’m there. Heck, the dunes are higher than most along the Atlantic coast of the US. I’ve spent a lot of time over the years in various seaside towns on the Atlantic. If this area is as good as the video portrays, the seashore has NOTHING on this place. What an incredible, hidden gem. Except it’s not so hidden now. Sigh.
http://news.travel.aol.com/2011/08/18/gma-picks-most-beautiful-place-in-america/?ncid=webmail10
I’m anchored inshore behind the barrier dunes on the eastern coast of Lake Ontario. It’s paradise without the popcorn stand. The town behind me seems to be right out of the 1960s. The beach is only reachable by boat, so there aren’t crowds, just very friendly local folks.
Sounds like heaven, Skye. I’ve always felt that the “real” America still exists in pockets along the Great Lakes. And it is my opinion that if we do ever revive this country, that’s where it will take place. Only thing that holds me back from moving there are the winters. I imagine they’re pretty brutal.
There is brutal and there is compromise. Google Tug Hill, which I can see from here. Famous snowfalls in the winter, at least until the lake freezes. Land is cheap, but I wouldn’t winter here for anything. A few miles away it is much more tolerable.
You are bringing back memories, Blue Sky. I lived in Oswego County for several years (if you go thru the Oswego canal, you will go thru my former front yard as I “owned” to the center of the river and the canal channel was completely on my side of the river).
Anyway, loved going to Pulaski, Sandy Creek, Sackets Harbor, etc. Had friends with a camp on Pulaski (?) river where it meets the Lake and I went out on those dunes a few times. Had a coworker who lived up on Tug Hill itself and commutted to Syracuse for work everyday. He talked of shovelling channels thru snow over his head each day so the dog could get out. I lived on the north side of Fulton and had to do the same (less snow) for my little dog.
Right now is the best time to be in that area. Possibley the prettiest place around for next 4 weeks. The other 48 weeks, well, they can be challenging at times.
Michigan native here. The Sleeping Bear Dunes are pretty cool, but I’m not so sure about the most beautiful place in the U.S. Rumor has it that the locals up there got a tip about the GMA piece and put together a get out the vote campaign that tipped the scales their way.
Northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula are very, very beautiful places. The Straits of Mackinaw and the Pictured Rocks come to mind. But most of the UP is pretty remote and sparsly populated. But I guess that’s helps contribute to the beauty.
Thanks for the feedback, Howie. I think that New York chef who summers up there had a lot to do with promoting it. I have to say, if nothing else, it does sound like a lovely place to spend the late spring/summer/early fall.
Palmy, I am a Michigan native, and you can rest assured that the entire Grand Traverse Bay area is well known to Chicagoans as well as other Midwesterners. In fact until the housing bubble collapsed, home prices there were astronomical, due in part to wealthy people from the Chicago area (and Detroit, back in the day) buying summer homes. I can’t watch the video at work but I can tell you that the entire region up there is gorgeous. It has golf courses, cherry orchards, vineyards, several finger lakes of the type also found in upstate New York, beautiful small harbor towns, and also plenty of culture with theater at the Cherry County Playhouse, and Interlochen for music. Good skiing in winter if that’s your thing. I would live there in a heartbeat if it wasn’t for pesky jobs keeping us here.
Voted the most beautiful place in America: Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore. Wow. Just. Wow. Anyone here ever been there or heard of it before?
I’ve been there.
It was the winter of 1977, and I’d just moved out of an apartment and into a lovely old dorm at the University of Michigan. (Apartment life was a little to lonely for young Slim.)
Turns out that dorm hall I was on was having a weekend trip. We carpooled up to this year-round camp called Innisfree. It was along the shores of Lake Michigan, and it had plenty of acreage for cross-country skiing. Guess what I learned to do that weekend.
I can remember skiing out to the shoreline of Lake Michigan and being struck by the site of massive dunes. Those were the Sleeping Bear dunes. And the lake itself? Frozen over, but the waves were heaving beneath the ice.
Truly a magical place.
I grew up in Muskegon which is on the west coast of Michigan basically across the lake from Milwaukee. I’ve always said there’s nothing better than a summer on Lake Michigan. That said, there are few things more brutal than a winter in Michigan. But it truly is beautiful there. The water’s always a little chilly, but they have the best beaches in the world. The sand is perfect. And they could definitely use the tourism so don’t hesitate to go check it out! The entire coastline is great so there’s plenty of room for everyone. Well not everyone, but everyone here at least…
Realtors Are Liars®
For more information, go to http://www.HopeNow.com or call (888) 995-4673.
One-on-one advice for homeowners
What: Free mortgage service assistance.
When: 11 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Friday.
Where: Palm Beach County Convention Center,
650 Okeechobee Blvd., West Palm Beach.
Homeowners need to bring the following:
•Most recent tax return with all the schedules and W-2s.
•Two most recent bank statements.
•Two most recent pay stubs (if you receive them) or documentation of the income you receive from other sources, such as alimony or child support.
•Monthly mortgage statement showing the mortgage servicer information and the mortgage loan account number.
•Information about other mortgages on your home, if applicable.
•Account balances and minimum monthly payments due on credit cards and other debts such as student or car loans.
.
The more one studies the Great Depression of the 1930s the more one concludes it would not have lasted more than three or four years had not FDR’s New Deal got in the way. Roosevelt’s own treasury secretary, Henry Morgenthau, saw the folly of the New Deal, writing:
“We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. … We have never made good on our promises. … I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started … and an enormous debt to boot!” The bottom line is that Roosevelt’s New Deal policies turned what would have been a three- or four-year sharp downturn into a 16-year affair.”
And yet FDR kept getting re-elected.
Uh-oh…
“D’oh!”
There are a couple problems with this argument.
1) unemployment was 23% when roosevelt was first elected in 1933, and was down to 15% in 1937 and still falling like a rock. Of course, that was before LARGE SPENDING CUTS were implimented by a hostile congress in 1937. The unemployment rate then jumped back above 18%.
2) 8 years after Roosevelt took office would have put us to Jan 1941 when unemployment was 10% and falling like a rock due to war in Europe causing demand for our products.
3) The depression started in 1929. Roosevelt wasn’t even elected until 1932, 3 years after the depression started. There were no signs it was turning around. Unemployment was still heading up right up until the New Deal was implimented. Nice to pretend that it would have only been 3 or 4 years without the new deal, but we were already past the 3rd anniversary and in the 4th year, with conditions still getting worse with no sign of a turn around in sight.
4) The dude was arguing against deficit spending, NOT spending. He wanted higher taxes to fund the spending rather than debt as evidenced by this quote from the same source as your quote:
“We have never begun to tax the people in this country the way they should be….. I don’t pay what I should. People in my class don’t. People who have it should pay.”
Darn those facts.
The depression started in 1929. Roosevelt wasn’t even elected until 1932, 3 years after the depression started. There were no signs it was turning around.
Not to mention the fact that, for rural America, the 1920s were a very rough time. You could almost call it a farm belt depression.
Outside of the Wall Street go-go circles, things were already turning down long before the Great Crash of 1929. Key indicator: Throughout the 1920s, the American birth rate fell.
Another bout of revisionist history……..sounds like my Ohio-Taft-Republican relatives on my mom’s side.
The same ones who hated Roosevelt because “no government/union is going to tell me how to run my business”
The same ones who screwed my mom and her sisters out of six-figure inheritances after my grandad died.
The same ones who didn’t know squat about what happened to my grandad’s Cord 810. It sure didn’t make it to the estate sale/settlement.
The same ones who filed Chapter 11, when it was discovered that they were underfunding their employees pension plan. And reopened the business on the following Monday, unencumbered by all those pension expenses.
(And this is why the Republicans want “Tort reform”. It’s easy to dodge liability…..just make sure that you have no assets to recover. This requires hiring accountants and lawyers.
It’s not the cost of lawsuits they are complaining about. It’s the cost of dodging the suits. If you relieve them of liability for anything, they don’t have to pay the lawyers and accountants anymore. Which is more money in their pocket).
Oh, those Taft Republicans. My Aunt Jean broke with them in a major way when she started voting.
And her mother was absolutely horrified about the way she voted. For Adlai Stevenson, no less!
What’s worse, one of Jean’s friends married a politician. And, much to my grandmother’s chagrin, the man was a…
…Democrat.
GOVERNMENT
4% drop in U.S. birth rate is largest in 3 decades
Ob-gyns in states with the sharpest declines say the trend is impacting their practices.
By Doug Trapp, amednews staff. Posted April 8, 2011.
Birth rates nationwide declined by 4% on average between 2007 and 2009, reaching 66.7 births per 1,000 women age 15 to 44, according to a federal report. This is the biggest decrease in more than 30 years.
Rates dropped most sharply in the West and Southeast, and among Hispanic women and younger women, according to the report. Birth rates decreased by 9% for Hispanic women and 9% for women age 20 to 24. The study was released March 29 by the National Center for Health Statistics, a division of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Although the CDC report does not link the decline to the most recent economic recession, other studies have. For example, the Pew Research Center concluded in an April 2010 analysis that there was a strong correlation between the decline in birth rates between 2007 and 2008 and the economic downturn in states.
Older women bucked the national trend. Birth rates for women 40 to 44 increased 6% between 2007 and 2009 to reach 10.1 per 1,000 women. Improved in vitro fertilization techniques could be giving these women more options, said George Macones, MD, chair of the Dept. of Obstetrics and Gynecology at Washington University in St. Louis.
The relatively sharp decline in birth rates in some states is deeply affecting hospitals and ob-gyns. In Arizona, for instance, the rate declined by 12%, the largest decrease of any state.
That drop was steep enough to force John C. Lincoln Health Network to close its North Mountain Hospital’s birthing center in Phoenix in February, according to the health network. The birthing center consistently lost money, most recently $5.4 million in 2010, Rhonda Forsyth, the network’s president and CEO, said in a statement. Administrators also cited relatively low Medicaid payment rates as a factor in the closing, which affected nearly 100 jobs. More than two-thirds of John C. Lincoln’s obstetrics patients are on Medicaid.
Forsyth expected the roughly 1,350 OB patients who would have gone to North Mountain Hospital to be picked up by the five larger, more comprehensive programs in the immediate area.
Some of Arizona’s birth rate drop could be due to Hispanic families and others moving out of the state because of the decline in the construction industry, said Dean Coonrod, MD, MPH, chair of the Dept. of Obstetrics and Gynecology at Maricopa Integrated Health System in Phoenix. He estimated that births at nearby hospitals have declined by 20% or more.
…
Then and now
That would bail us out.
1. Injecting stimulus is always fun and games. Withdrawl is a bitch.
2. Running a trade surplus always helps. Back then we were also a net exporter of oil. Maybe we get lucky and the EURO-Zone goes to war over their debt crisis
3. I also depends on how you spend the stimulus. We decided to spend it on consumption. Now we have nothing to show for except more debt. The stuff build under the new deal helped the economy. Some of the structures are still in use to this day (Hoover Dam…started before FDR, but still…), TVA, etc.
4. You can only run a significant deficit (like 5+% of GDP) for a finite length of time. That means there will be a day when the stimulus ends, voluntary or otherwise.
5. The rest of the world deciding to blow each other up certainly helped the US pull out of the depression. That wouldn’t be the case today, much too volatile situation. in 1945 the US was the only counrty in the entire world with a significant manufacturing base. The rest of the world lay in ruins.
6. I suspect stimulus only works up to a point. Once your debt grows beyond all bounds it is game over. Japan has been trying this for decades without too much success. all they have to show for are bridges to nowhere and 220% debt/GDP.
Well if the Tea Party get’s their way we may have a sharp contrast to what FDR did. My guess is you and all those like you will find that your horse was hitched to a strong middle class much more than you think. Unfortunately the rest of us will have to suffer too.
Let’s take a look at how America faired after the New Deal in terms of GDP growth, tax revenues, etc. and in terms of stability.
Department of Mental Health lays off 582 statewide
Aug. 19, 2011 | http://www.gannettonline.com Alabama
The Department of Mental Health is laying off 582 employees statewide — a quarter of their workforce — including employees at Greil Memorial Psychiatric Hospital in Montgomery.
In a statement, commissioner Zelia Baugh said the loss of federal stimulus money had created a $14 million deficit that the department could only address through job cuts.
“Regretfully, a reduction in workforce will be required,” she said. “However, our first priority is to the individuals this department serves; therefore, we will continue to look for ways to save money to the best of our ability without jeopardizing services.”
Layoffs began earlier this month at Partlow Development Center in Tuscaloosa, according to John Ziegler, a spokesman for the Alabama Department of Mental Health. Some 400 workers there will lose their jobs at Partlow, scheduled to close later this year.
Another 180 people will lose their jobs at the department’s central office, Greil Memorial Psychi-atric Hospital in Montgomery, Bryce Hospital in Tuscaloosa, Taylor Hardin Secure Medical Facility in Tuscaloosa and Searcy Hospital in Mount Vernon. Some contract services employees will also be laid off, Ziegler said.
Ziegler did not have a breakdown of the locations of the 182 layoffs, but said services at the facilities would not be affected. The department has begun sending out notices to those being laid off.
“I don’t know if all of them have been notified,” he said. “It depends on the individual. We try to get them 30 days notice. It will be a progressive thing over the next few months.”
The 582 employees being laid off represent 24.9 percent of the department’s 2,340 workers.
This piece reminds me of that bumper sticker: “Support mental health or I’ll kill you”
Which isn’t exactly a joke here in Tucson.
Even better than “guns don’t kill people, I kill people”.
“Come hear the voices in my head. They say you wan’t to hurt me and they wan’t you dead.”
http://www.lyricstime.com/combichrist-blut-royale-lyrics.html
With gold prices jumping in $50 increments on a daily basis, some MSM commentators are beginning to suspect we might be seeing the “start of a bubble.” They were making similar comments regarding U.S. housing right around the time the housing bubble popped, at the end of a decade of unprecedented housing price increases.
Watching for Bubbles as Gold Hits Record High
Aug. 19, 2011
WSJ Heard on the Street columnist Liam Denning explains how best to view the gyrating oil and gold markets, and whether the wild gyrations in stock prices signals the start of a bubble. AP Photo.
This…is a suck!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/commuting/911-motorcycle-ride-expected-to-cause-major-traffic-delays/2011/08/16/gIQArObBMJ_story.html
Here in Tucson, we’re 9/11-ed out.
I experienced 9/11 fatigue firsthand on September 11, 2004. Was at a local organization’s information table in a big community preparedness fair in the Tucson Convention Center.
Oh, yes, there was a 9/11 memorial before the fair started, and there were a lot of military people attending. (I suppose they were ordered to attend.)
After the memorial, theTCC exhibit hall hosting the fair emptied out. And the rest of the fair was a boredom fest. To the point where the organizers shut it down a couple hours early.
My little town in Massachusetts is having a memorial dedication and asking town citizens to stand in the little town square and read the names of every single person killed in the attack (although my money is on forgetting, oh, 19 or so).
And we have absolutely no connection to the event.
But gosh darn it, the firemen and the police are going to be there in force.
Good thing we didn’t have to raise property taxes this year for the schools…oh, wait, we did.
Yes, my own preference would be if, as a country, we could get though the ten-year anniversary in a dignified, restrained manner and not dwell on it too much. I’ve got a bad feeling that some of these folks running for the Republican nomination are going to fell an urge to make ridiculous statements.
Yes, my own preference would be if, as a country, we could get though the ten-year anniversary in a dignified, restrained manner and not dwell on it too much.
I’ve been looking for a good, crunchy-chewy community service event to do on that day. Not seeing anything on my radar screen yet, but I’ll stay alert to possibilities.
Thousands Camp Out for Job Fair as Jobless Rate Rises
ABC News
Thousands of unemployed waited overnight, camping out in their business suits and office heels and braving the tormenting heat in Atlanta to stand in line for a job fair Thursday. Authorities treated 20 people for heat exhaustion as they struggled to keep the line moving and get people moved inside.
The incredible turnout at the job fair comes on the heels of the state labor commissioner’s announcement that Georgia’s jobless rate rose.
The state unemployment rate increased to 10.1 percent in July from the 9.9 percent in June. The unemployment rate for African-Americans stands at 15.9 percent, far above the national rate of 9.1 percent.
July marks the 48th consecutive month that Georgia has exceeded the national unemployment rate.
The line was full of hopefuls who waited for hours in a line that wrapped around the Atlanta Technical College where the event was held.
The For the People Jobs Initiative, hosted by U.S. Reps. John Lewis and Hank Johnson and sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus, is a series of job fairs and town halls at some of the urban areas hit hardest by unemployment and the financial crisis.
The enormous turnout in Georgia created miles of traffic that clogged southwest Atlanta.
“My feet are really killing me, and this line is really long,” said job applicant Daisy Kennard. “But I’m willing to stay in this line no matter what,” Kennard said.
Like Kennard, thousands of others showed up for an opportunity to meet the 90 employers who attended. the event and eager to jumpstart their job search. The fair provided job seminars such as resume writing and mortgage modification workshops.
The immense crowd at the two-day fair is another unneeded reminder of the dire state of the American economy.
“I believe the recent lack of leadership in Washington is a contributing factor to the overall lack of confidence in the economy,” said Mark Butler, Georgia’s labor commissioner. “Due to this lack of confidence, we are seeing a business community that is hesitant to make further investments in this economy.”
The general inefficiency in Washington is precisely the reason why the Congressional Black Caucus launched the fair, said Mahen Gunaratna, a representative for Florida congresswoman Frederica Wilson, who will host Miami’s Job Initiative fair.
“The Congressional Black Caucus decided to take matters into their own hands,” said Gunaratna. “They are tired of Republicans’ inaction that prevents bills from moving forward. This is a real tangible opportunity for our constituents.”
And the people in the lines have not yet given up despite the relentless weather, miles of traffic and lines and months of unemployment.
“You got child, you got kids, you got bills,” said Derric Clayton, a former security guard with three children. He’s been looking for work since May. “You’ve got to stay somewhere. You don’t want to be homeless.”
Two more For the People Jobs Initiative fairs are set to take place in Miami and Los Angeles later this month.
“You have to give people a sense of hope, a sense of optimism,” said Lewis, a host of the Atlanta fair. “Tell them over and over again, ‘Don’t give up.’”
Amid all the market volatility and weakness in the financial sector of late, you may have missed this WSJ front page story: “States Go After Big Bank on Forex”.
The story is about growing scandal in the banking industry centered around banks allegedly overcharging pension funds for currency transactions.
“Attorneys general in Virginia and Florida filed civil suits against BNY Mellon alleging that the bank cheated pension funds in those states by choosing improper prices for currency trades the bank processed for the funds,” The WSJ reports. “The Virginia lawsuit, filed in a Fairfax, Va., state court, cites internal bank emails allegedly showing that senior bank officials knew about, and endorsed, a currency-trading method that hurt state pensioners.”
In addition to Virginia and Florida, California and Tennessee are also suing BNY Mellon and State Street Corp. over the alleged fraud.
The man who uncovered the alleged scam, Harry Markopolos, expects all 50 states to eventually join the suit. If the name sounds familiar that’s because Markopolos was a whistleblower on the Madoff Ponzi scheme, only to have his claims ignored by the SEC for the better par of a decade. (See: Harry Markopolos Says Big Banks Worse Than Madoff)
In this case, Markopolos says BNY Mellon and State Street we’re taking about “three tenths of a percent from every forex transaction for pension funds” by back-timing the trade to benefit banks at the detriment of their pension fund clients. “It’s almost the exact same scheme as the market timing scandals of 2003,” he claims.
When and if these cases go to trial is unknown, but Markopolos sure hopes to avoid a settlement. “I want to see them admit guilt,
Don’t we all.
finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/madoff-whistleblower-big-banks-ripping-off-pension-funds-152836936.html?sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
If you want a kick, do a Google search for “The World’s largest hedge fund is a fraud” and read the SEC submission.
The SEC is a joke.
That said, in hearing one of the guys on Markopolos’s team speak, their biggest mistake was not going to the FBI (populated with investigators) instead of the SEC (populated with attorneys).
the head of the fbi…just like his boss…and just like his boss’ boss…are a complete joke when it comes to dealing with this financial crisis.
Part of the problem with the FBI can be boiled down to one word: terrorism.
Before 9/11, the FBI had some, ahem, weaknesses in this area. Post-9/11, they really staffed up. Bigtime.
And we know what got the short shrift: financial crimes.
Not saying the FBI is perfect, but I’d rather give a crime to them to pursue than the attorneys at the SEC.
I would hope that anyone with minimum common sense knew that this “super” committee was a giant load of the same old $h!t!
- AP analysis: Special interests gave $3 million to members of new budget supercommittee
WASHINGTON (AP) — The 12 lawmakers appointed to a new congressional supercommittee charged with tackling the nation’s fiscal problems have received millions in contributions from special interests with a direct stake in potential cuts to federal programs, an Associated Press analysis of federal campaign data has found.
The newly appointed members - six Democrats and six Republicans - have received more than $3 million total during the past five years in donations from political committees with ties to defense contractors, health care providers and labor unions. That money went to their re-election campaigns, according to AP’s review.
Supporters say the lawmakers were picked for their integrity and experience with complicated budget matters. But their appointments already have prompted early concerns from campaign-finance watchdog groups, which urged the lawmakers to stop fundraising and resign from leadership positions in political groups.
The congressional committee, created as part of the debt limit and deficit reduction agreement enacted last week, is charged with cutting more than $1 trillion from the budget during the coming decade. If the committee doesn’t decide on cuts by late November - or if Congress votes down the committee’s recommendations - spending triggers would automatically cut billions of dollars from politically delicate areas like Medicare and the Pentagon.
The lawmakers represent a large swath of political ideology and geography, but they have some things in common: They received more than $1 million overall in contributions from the health care industry and at least $700,000 from defense companies, the AP found. Those two industries, especially, are sensitive to the outcome of the committee’s negotiations because the automatic spending cuts could affect them most directly.
The committee’s co-chairs - Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., and Rep. Jeb Hensarling, R-Texas - each received support from lobbyists and political committees, including those with ties to defense contractors and health care lobbyists. Hensarling’s re-election committee, for instance, received about $11,000 from Lockheed Martin and $8,500 from Northrop Grumman.
Companies like Lockheed rely heavily on government contracts: More than 80 percent of Lockheed’s net sales during the first six months of 2011 came from the U.S. government, according to Securities and Exchange Commission records. And in SEC filings two weeks ago, Northrop expressed concern of a “material adverse effect” on its finances had the debt ceiling not been raised.
The other panel members are Sens. Max Baucus, D-Mont.; John Kerry, D-Mass.; Jon Kyl, R-Ariz.; Pat Toomey, R-Pa.; and Rob Portman, R-Ohio; and Reps. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C.; Xavier Becerra, D-Calif.; Chris Van Hollen, D-Md.; and Michigan Republicans Dave Camp and Fred Upton.
The AP’s analysis shows the extent to which special interests have directly supported the 12 members during their tenures in Congress, including support from agriculture businesses ($600,000) and labor unions ($580,000). Big checks also came in from the banking and insurance industry.
Of course it is the Same o’ shituff.
Have you heard anyone talking about how money is debt, and unless we get money out of the hands of the people with it and into the nads of the people with debt, then we’re doomed to debt collapse?
No? Me either.
Awesome, instead of having to bribe…em, excuse me, lobby,…535+100 = 635 politicos MEGA INC. now only has to lobby 12 of these clowns. How convenient.
Hey Money is just free speech.
I’m surprised that the supreme court didn’t just come out and legalize bribery. It’s no different then talking to your congressman.
The TARP Contractors’ Lucre Glows: The Ticker
The U.S. Treasury, as manager of the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, relies heavily on law firms, banks and financial companies for services and advice.
How heavily? As of July 31, Treasury spent more than $510 million for legal, banking and financial services alone. That’s a big haul for the lawyers, asset managers and accountants with contracts under the program Congress created in October 2008.
Some of the biggest payments went to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to administer the home-mortgage modification programs. Treasury paid Bank of New York Mellon Corp. to act as custodian for securities acquired by TARP, and AllianceBernstein Holding LP to manage the program’s assets.
And some of the $510 million was funneled to dozens of law firms, including Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP, which advised Treasury on the auto bailout.
MOODY’S ANALYST BREAKS SILENCE: Says Ratings Agency Rotten To Core With Conflicts, Corruption, And Greed
Henry Blodget | Aug. 19, 2011
A former senior analyst at Moody’s has gone public with his story of how one of the country’s most important rating agencies is corrupted to the core.
The analyst, William J. Harrington, worked for Moody’s for 11 years, from 1999 until his resignation last year.
From 2006 to 2010, Harrington was a Senior Vice President in the derivative products group, which was responsible for producing many of the disastrous ratings Moody’s issued during the housing bubble.
Harrington has made his story public in the form of a 78-page “comment” to the SEC’s proposed rules about rating agency reform, which he submitted to the agency on August 8th. The comment is a scathing indictment of Moody’s processes, conflicts of interests, and management, and it will likely make Harrington a star witness at any future litigation or hearings on this topic.
The primary conflict of interest at Moody’s is well known: The company is paid by the same “issuers” (banks and companies) whose securities it is supposed to objectively rate. This conflict pervades every aspect of Moody’s operations, Harrington says. It incentivizes everyone at the company, including analysts, to give Moody’s clients the ratings they want, lest the clients fire Moody’s and take their business to other ratings agencies.
Moody’s analysts whose conclusions prevent Moody’s clients from getting what they want, Harrington says, are viewed as “impeding deals” and, thus, harming Moody’s business. These analysts are often transferred, disciplined, “harassed,” or fired.
In short, Harrington describes a culture of conflict that is so pervasive that it often renders Moody’s ratings useless at best and harmful at worst.
Harrington believes the SEC’s proposed rules will make the integrity of Moody’s ratings worse, not better. He also believes that Moody’s recent attempts to reform itself are nothing more than a pretty-looking PR campaign.
We’ve included highlights of Harrington’s story below. Here are some key points:
Moody’s ratings often do not reflect its analysts’ private conclusions. Instead, rating committees privately conclude that certain securities deserve certain ratings–and then vote with management to give the securities the higher ratings that issuer clients want.
Moody’s management and “compliance” officers do everything possible to make issuer clients happy–and they view analysts who do not do the same as “troublesome.” Management employs a variety of tactics to transform these troublesome analysts into “pliant corporate citizens” who have Moody’s best interests at heart.
Moody’s product managers participate in–and vote on–ratings decisions. These product managers are the same people who are directly responsible for keeping clients happy and growing Moody’s business.
At least one senior executive lied under oath at the hearings into rating agency conduct. Another executive, who Harrington says exemplified management’s emphasis on giving issuers what they wanted, skipped the hearings altogether.
I think with respect to CMBS and RMBS, the govnerment should make it illegal to opine on any security where:
1. 95% of the loans in the pool have the documented income necessary to pay the debt service at the highest rate allowed under the note.
2. 95% of the loans have at least 10% down payments (exclusive of 2nd deed trusts).
3. 95% of the loans are 1st trust deeds.
No more liar loans.
No more exploding ARMs.
No more buyers without cash equity in the deal.
No more CDOs.
Without those three measures met, the loan pools are by their very nature speculative, and should not be rated by anyone.
At that point, who cares what the ratings agencies do?
Methinks that Taibbi’s story about the SEC’s evidence destruction has legs. Big ones.
Mark my words. This will be another big, Watergate-style scandal.
Government of the highest, by the highest bidder, for the highest bidder.
“This will be another big, Watergate-style scandal.”
Good. Bring it on. It’s part of the wakeup call the country needs.
“I’m not in favor of fairness. I’m in favor of freedom, and freedom is not fairness. Fairness means somebody has to decide what’s fair.”
“The society that puts equality before freedom will end up with neither. The society that puts freedom before equality will end up with a great measure of both.”
- Milton Friedman
So, I should be free to rob, rape, murder, burn, pillage, plunder….
If not, then we accept there are limits on freedom.
Should my freedom to create a Ponzi Scheme be protected, or would that fall under theft and therefore be a limited freedom?
If I can’t create a Ponzi Scheme, should I be free to generate massive amounts of debt by lending to people that can’t pay it back, even though that will eventually be proven nothing but a Ponzi Scheme that will collaspe in cascade default, money vaporation and depression?
Oh, right. You were speaking philosophically, not pragmatically.
Personally, as someone that doesn’t want a to be murdered, raped, ripped off, or see our economy crash into depression, I’m a pretty big proponent on limiting freedom to those things that don’t cause significant harm to others.
Wow! Talk about a total disconnect.
“Personally, as someone that doesn’t want a to be murdered, raped, ripped off, or see our economy crash into depression,”
Well, at least you haven`t been murdered, raped or ripped off.
That’s a stupid quote, WMBZ. How about: fair doesn’t always mean equal?
“The CFTC has kept this information hidden from the American public for nearly three years,” he said. “This is an outrage. The American people have a right to know exactly who caused gas prices to skyrocket in 2008 and who is causing them to spike today.”
U.S. oil speculative data released by Senator, sparking ire:
On Friday August 19, 2011, By Sarah N. Lynch / Reuters
Although the CFTC is barred from releasing confidential data, the law does require the CFTC to hand over such information if a Congressional committee acting within its proper authority requests it. Once it is in the hands of Congress, there is nothing to prevent lawmakers from releasing it publicly.
The leak also raises broader questions as U.S. regulators gear up to collect massive new amounts of private data from market players on everything from swaps and hedge funds to blueprints for how large financial firms can be liquidated. The breach of data could make Wall Street less reluctant to hand over sensitive information if they fear it is not appropriately safeguarded.
“This type of incident will have a chilling effect on derivatives trading in the U.S. because market participants will be reluctant to take the risk that their positions will be exposed to the public-and their competitors,” John Damgard, president of the Futures Industry Association, said in a statement sent to Reuters.
Among the kinds of traders accused of excessive speculation included passive long investors such as pension funds, which often seek exposure to commodities markets indirectly by going through an intermediary swap dealer such as such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
“We care$, about you, wee wee lil’ folk$, really we do!”
“Repubicans have already raised concerns in recent hearings about the Treasury’s new Office of Financial Research created by Dodd-Frank, and whether its collection of data from hedge funds and banks may constitute a regulatory overreach.”
Getting to the root causes of financial disruptions? Pshaw. That would assume most politicians are acting in the American people’s best interests. Unveiling what really goes on would ultimately lead back to the politicians.
That’s the dirty little secret.
Why haven’t we had a Pecora Commision? Because the mass of people might find out what really happened.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pecora_Commission
Given wide media coverage, the testimony of the powerful banker J.P. Morgan, Jr. caused a public outcry after he admitted under examination that he and many of his partners had not paid any income taxes in 1931 and 1932.
The $uffering So’s…help ‘em,…hurry, no really, hurry!
After 9-11, who was the 1st “allowed” to leave America on an airplane? Yeah, $hrub approved American Patriot members of the Bin-laden family.
Yippie-kye-aye!
Ohio home weatherization workers face layoffs as stimulus funds dry up
- Business First August 19, 2011
As many as 700 Ohioans who worked to weatherize homes with stimulus funding could be laid off as the federal dollars run out, the Dayton Daily News reports.
Community action agencies writing to the state said the layoffs would take place by Oct. 31, adding that more than 250 of the 700 already have been cut. Ohio received $267 million in June 2009 under the federal stimulus program for weatherization and more than 1,000 workers were trained to update homes, the paper reported.
An estimated 40,000 homes or more have been weatherized in Ohio since the federal stimulus funding became available, the paper reported.
Lurch gets bumped from the top spot by a fellow who made his money just like Lurch did… He married it!
Rep. McCaul Tops List of 50 Richest Members of Congress
August 19, 2011 | FoxNews.com
Rep. Michael McCaul arrives for a hearing Nov. 16, 2010, on Capitol Hill in Washington.
The rich in Congress are getting richer.
A new list of the 50 wealthiest members of Congress shows that the top three alone are worth in excess of $700 million.
Leading the pack is Texas Republican Rep. Michael McCaul, who according to the annual Roll Call list is worth at least $294 million. McCaul, whose wife is the daughter of the founder of Clear Channel Communications, rocketed from a fifth-place ranking to the top of the list this year.
Last year, his worth was pegged at about $74 million. According to Roll Call, a “gift from spouse’s parents” may have accounted for the enormous increase in the family fortune this year.
Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., meanwhile dropped from the top of the list to third, with a net worth of $193 million — though it still marked a slight increase over last year. His assets also can be mostly attributed to his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry.
In between Kerry and McCaul is Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif. Issa reported about $220 million in net wealth.
After those three, the fortunes drop down into the eight-digit range, but are still substantial. The list comprises rank-and-file members as well as prominent congressional leaders.
House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., is listed at $35 million.
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is listed at just under $10 million.
From yesterday, “Comment by polly
2011-08-18 15:03:46
You probably were able to deduct “points” or some other start up costs in the first year that would not apply in other years, so I doubt the deduction will be double.
Umm…this is a little judgemental, but this is the sort of financial information you should have been so intimately aware of that you remember most of it a little more than a year later. Just sayin’……
No points were involved. Other than taxes, no closing cost deductions either. So what’s to remember? I had mortgage interest and tax deductions. I also had energy and dependent care credits. My stuff’s pretty vanilla. Nothing too “intimate” here. I was just saying that I did quick math in response to your opinion that the std. deduction suffices and it does not. Yes, my interest will pretty much be double next year.
But you also said you were basing your statements on just the amount of tax refund you got one year and the next year.
You didn’t figure out the tax adjusted mortgage payment before you bought? Really? I would think it would be at the top of your list before buying. I would never buy without knowing how it would effect my after tax monthly expenses:
$X is what I used to pay in rent.
$Y is what I will be paying in cash to cover the same expenses as $X in the new place.
$Z is the tax adjusted cost of the same figure.
It just makes sense to know that sort of thing before buying, doesn’t it?
My wife and I take the standard deduction after paying off the mortgage 11 years ago after 17 years of aggressive payments. Don’t need the deduction now, but MID helped liked hell in the early years!
Madoff Whistleblower: Big Banks Are Ripping Off Pension Funds
By Peter Gorenstein | Daily Ticker
Amid all the market volatility and weakness in the financial sector of late, you may have missed this WSJ front page story: “States Go After Big Bank on Forex”.
The story is about growing scandal in the banking industry centered around banks allegedly overcharging pension funds for currency transactions.
“Attorneys general in Virginia and Florida filed civil suits against BNY Mellon alleging that the bank cheated pension funds in those states by choosing improper prices for currency trades the bank processed for the funds,” The WSJ reports. “The Virginia lawsuit, filed in a Fairfax, Va., state court, cites internal bank emails allegedly showing that senior bank officials knew about, and endorsed, a currency-trading method that hurt state pensioners.”
In addition to Virginia and Florida, California and Tennessee are also suing BNY Mellon and State Street Corp. over the alleged fraud.
The man who uncovered the alleged scam, Harry Markopolos, expects all 50 states to eventually join the suit. If the name sounds familiar that’s because Markopolos was a whistleblower on the Madoff Ponzi scheme, only to have his claims ignored by the SEC for the better par of a decade. (See: Harry Markopolos Says Big Banks Worse Than Madoff)
In this case, Markopolos says BNY Mellon and State Street we’re taking about “three tenths of a percent from every forex transaction for pension funds” by back-timing the trade to benefit banks at the detriment of their pension fund clients. “It’s almost the exact same scheme as the market timing scandals of 2003,” he claims.
When and if these cases go to trial is unknown, but Markopolos sure hopes to avoid a settlement. “I want to see them admit guilt,” he tells Aaron Task in the accompanying interview. “If [banks] settle it feel like justice denied because they also will settle without admitting or denying guilt. That’s just too easy. “
Filed under: don’t get “TrueAngry™”, get “True$traightenUp&Fly$Right!™”
Brian Schweitzer, a Democrat (Oh, my!), is the governor of Montana.
Finally, we don’t spend money until we’ve found the lowest price. Around here, government contracts aren’t a way to take care of friends. Quite the opposite: we use our purchasing power to get the lowest possible rate. When the real estate market softened, we told commercial landlords who rented space to the state that if we didn’t see rent reductions, we’d move to cheaper premises when our leases were up. Most complied, saving the state almost $4 million.
(Geez, maybe lil’ Opie ought to get this fella to be his 2012 VP!)
Op-Ed Contributor
Cutting Costs the Montana Way
By BRIAN SCHWEITZER
Published: August 18th, 2011 / Helena, Mont.
And even as we’ve cut costs and socked away money, we’ve followed another ranching principle: treat your ranch hands with respect. Like other states, we’ve had to freeze employee pay and reduce the work force. But as in any good organization, many of the best solutions for cutting costs come from state employees. Some look at payroll as a burden; we look at it as human capital, and we work hard to keep up morale in tough times. So when we cut the state payroll, I cut my own salary.
This type of penny-pinching rarely occurs in Washington. As a small example, I was recently at a military base where a private firm ran security. Why, with the toughest soldiers on earth, would the federal government spend extra cash to rent security guards rather than let troops take turns guarding the fort? Sure, there might be a convenience to contracting, but is it worth the billions spent? No doubt the lobbyists for the security firm sprinkled plenty of money around Capitol Hill to get the contract.
The federal budget contains thousands of similar line items. A government serious about tightening its belt would eliminate them all.
WITH the debt crisis and the weakening economy fresh on their minds, most Americans have probably concluded that government, as a rule, cannot manage money responsibly. But it can. Just look at Montana.
For six years it has been one of the only states in America with a budget surplus: this year it is a record $433 million, proportionally equivalent to a federal surplus of $858 billion. Thus we’ve been able to cut taxes, invest in education and infrastructure and keep essential services intact. We recently got our first bond rating upgrade in 26 years.
I used to work for a lady from Montana. Man, those people are frugal!
And even as we’ve cut costs and socked away money, we’ve followed another ranching principle: treat your ranch hands with respect.
Is it possible if you fly due East from Montana, you might hit WisconSIN?
Hi Mikey!
Does anyone here have a mortgage with Bank of America? I have one with them which they got from buying Countrywide. It’s a refinance that I did in 2005 and I did the 7-1 arm. I pay faithfully on time every month and this year is when it reset and made my house payment lower by $250 a month. They are now calling my house every day at least twice at all different hours trying to get ahold of me but they won’t leave a message. I refuse to answer their calls cause if they won’t leave a message or send me something in the mail it must be some high pressure sales tactic or some other form of trickery. I was just wondering if anyone here has experienced the same with this Titan of Wallstreet and what they could possibly be up to?
what they could possibly be up to?
IDK, but eyes reckon they-bee a wantin’ you to take your hands outta your pocket$.
That’s what I’m afraid of! Hahaha!! It hasn’t even been 2 months yet with the new lower payment and I bet they want the old one back!
i have one through them, but a 20 yr fixed not an arm. they never call me.
I would have gotten a fixed one at the time I refie’d but I didn’t plan on staying here and then I took a tumble down my stair case and wrecked my back so now even if I wanted to I can’t.
Probably trying to get you to lock in a 30 year fixed rate. Interest rate would be higher and they’d get to pocket the origination fees. May or may not make sense for you depending on your situation and how long you plan to stay in the house.
But I agree, if they won’t send a letter or even leave a voicemail, I wouldn’t bother answering either.
But I agree, if they won’t send a letter or even leave a voicemail, I wouldn’t bother answering either.
I screen my calls with caller ID. So, if I don’t recognize the number, I’m not picking up the phone. And if you don’t leave a message, don’t expect a return call.
“Does anyone here have a mortgage with Bank of America?”
I now owe BofA, N.A. about $2,500, and the next scheduled payment is due on Jan 01, 2012, but they still send me a refinance brochure every week. A couple more principal checks should do it.
DOE approves up to 1,100 additional layoffs at Hanford
Tri-City Herald
RICHLAND, Wash. — The Department of Energy has authorized its environmental cleanup contractors at the Hanford nuclear reservation to lay off as many as 1,100 more workers in the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1.
That’s in addition to up to 1,985 layoffs already announced this year, the majority of which will occur Sept. 29.
The layoffs announced today are to prepare for a federal budget for the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1, which is expected to reduce Hanford’s annual budget.
The 1,100 layoffs will start with up to 475 workers at the Hanford tank farms, a project of Washington River Protection Solutions.
Washington River Protection Solutions said the last day of employment for those workers will be Oct. 13.
However, the number of tank farm jobs that will need to be cut remains uncertain.
After Congress returns from its August recess in early September, Washington River Protection Solutions may have a better idea of how many job reductions are needed. Congress has not passed a fiscal 2012 budget for DOE.
The 1,985 layoffs announced earlier are mostly linked to the end of federal economic stimulus money and a gradual ramp down of work by Washington Closure Hanford in preparation of the end of cleanup along the Columbia River.
A job fair is planned 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Friday at TRAC for Hanford workers. Workers must show their Hanford badge to enter the fair.
I’m about two hours from Richland, WA. These workers knew in advance that the cuts were coming. The Hanford facility is a Superfund site that has been supporting the tri-cities area for years. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Battelle University, etc., lots of high end scientists and projects there.
Skyline to close Fair Haven plant in October
78 Vermont and New York employees will lose jobs
By Lou Varricchio - New Market Press
Fair Haven — Reeling from the news of Skyline Manufactured Housing Corporation’s decision to close its Fair Haven plant in October, town officials are seeking help from state and local agencies. Calls to Skyline’s corporate office by local officials have gone unanswered.
Mike Steed, the company’s vice president human resources at its headquarters in Elkhart, Ind., said 78 Vermont and New York workers will lose their jobs in October.
The plant, built 40 years ago, is located on Main Street south of the Amtrak railroad crossing.
The depression in the nation’s housing market was blamed on the closing.
Founded in 1951, Skyline manufactures and modular housing. In 1960, it opened its first recreational vehicle (RV) factory. According to Steed, Skyline has built more than 870,000 homes and 460,000 RVs. Since the 1980s, the firm’s sales have been estimated at over excess of $15 billion. However, the company reported a $27 million loss this year.
Fair Haven Select Board Chairman Jeff Sheldon said, “It’s kind of a shock to the community.”
Sheldon said Town Manager Peter Hathaway attempted to contact Skyline’s executives last week but they didn’t respond.
State and county agencies will work with employees to help them find employment, according to Steed and Sheldon.
Skyline products are built by 13 operating divisions located in a dozen states across the U.S. Of the firm’s 15 divisions, ten produce housing and three produce RVs.
NC unemployment tops 10 percent in July
Raleigh, N.C. — North Carolina’s unemployment rate rose to 10.1 percent in July, up from 9.9 percent in June, the state Employment Security Commission reported Friday.
The biggest driver in the increase was the loss of more than 12,000 public sector jobs, the ESC said.
On Thursday,Gov. Bev Perdue warned that the rate would increase. She made the remarks in a speech delivered in Asheville.
However, a spokesperson for the governor said she was “misunderstood” by a newspaper that reported the jobless rate would increase 1 percentage point from the 9.9 percent rate for June.
The state Employment Security Commission released the latest statistics at 10 a.m. Friday. The jobless rate was seasonally adjusted.
But they are a right to work state??
That’s correct It’s better that way, see?
Well, it’s not exactly “revoking” a MegaCorp$Inc. “Charter-to-do-”Bidne$$”,…but eyes like the $pirit of their denial!
“The possibility that Exxon could lose this oil will likely send shock waves through the industry. “This is unprecedented,…”
Exxon, U.S. Government Duel Over Huge Oil Find:
By RUSSELL GOLD / LAW / AUGUST 18, 2011
Exxon’s lawsuit said the government has granted “thousands” of extensions over time. It said the government’s denial of its extension relied on legal interpretations that it “had never before applied and had never before articulated.” Statoil asserted in its lawsuit that no request for an extension for a deep-water development “had ever previously been denied.”
Exxon spokesman Patrick McGinn said the company expected to get the extension, which he said was traditionally granted as a matter of course. “You state your case and you got it. [This] was unexpected.”
The Texas behemoth faces the sobering prospect that it may have made the largest discovery ever in the Gulf of Mexico only to lose it. Tens of billions of dollars of oil could slip through its hands because it failed to follow federal rules for getting a lease extension while it moved forward with plans to get the oil out of the ground.
(So, what did Texas-oil-man $hrub know, & when did hes know$ it?)
The dispute over Exxon’s plans for the Julia field began in October 2008—about a month before its 10-year leases expired—when it applied for a five-year “suspension of production.”
The stakes are high: Under federal law, the leases—and all the oil underneath—could revert to the government if Exxon doesn’t win in court.
This is all about the story I posted the other day.
The 2/3rds of permits issued by the gov are not being used, ie big oil wants to sit on the permits and prevent drilling. Thus taking them away makes perfect sense. Maybe the administration has actually grown a pair.
(So, what did
Texas-oil-man$port$ Enthu$ia$t $hrub know, & when did hes know$ it?)Go Tay-ho$$ Ranger$!,… hi-ho $ilver!
Here in Tucson, the daily fishwrap is reporting quite the drop in house prices. Excerpt from the linked story:
“The median sale price last month, at $125,000, was also about 17 percent lower than it was during the same time period in 2010, according to the latest numbers from the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service.”
To which I say:
According to one of our city council members, Tucson’s median income is $32k. I was in the room when she said this, and I repeated the number 32 back to her so I could be sure that I heard her correctly. She confirmed that she had indeed used that number.
The upshot of the above: Our median house price still has a-ways to fall.
Arizona Slim
Do you have the link to the IRS ratline?
“According to one of our city council members, Tucson’s median income is $32k.”
It’s difficult for a community to sell bonds and grow with incomes that low. But homes in the Hughes development still command a pretty penny.
Yes I think the $32k is about right for Tucson.
The $125k average price in Tucson is higher than the average price in Phoenix.
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=192612
From 2006 to 2010, Harrington was a Senior Vice President in the derivative products group, which was responsible for producing many of the disastrous ratings Moody’s issued during the housing bubble.
Harrington has made his story public in the form of a 78-page “comment” to the SEC’s proposed rules about rating agency reform, which he submitted to the agency on August 8th. The comment is a scathing indictment of Moody’s processes, conflicts of interests, and management, and it will likely make Harrington a star witness at any future litigation or hearings on this topic.
The comment is a $cathing indictment of
Moody’$[place a $COTUS INC.] Name:_________________ proce$$es, conflict$ of interest$, and management$Geez Sammy, you usually paint with broad brush-strokes!
Question: With all these folks ‘walking away’, how do they continue to pay their property taxes? (Since it’s all usually made as one PITI payment)? Or do they not pay that either? It seems to me that the tax folks will come after you much quicker than the banks, whose plates are full. And all the banks can do is take your house, but the govt. will do what it takes (garnish wages) to get the money, which really adds up after a couple of years.
RAL
IIRC it was last Friday (Aug 12th) that I posted the r e scripts/ psychology trigger (trainers) links. They are in the HBB archives. (Aug 14th was the cut off as of today scrolling down) If I can find them again, I’ll re-post them.
These f*ckin’ guys…
NEW YORK, Aug 19 (Reuters) - General Motors Co (GM.N) is seeking to dismiss a lawsuit over a suspension problem on more than 400,000 Chevrolet Impalas from the 2007 and 2008 model years, saying it should not be responsible for repairs because the flaw predated its bankruptcy.
The lawsuit, filed on June 29 by Donna Trusky of Blakely, Pennsylvania, contended that her Impala suffered from faulty rear spindle rods, causing her rear tires to wear out after just 6,000 miles.
Seeking class-action status and alleging breach of warranty, the lawsuit demands that GM fix the rods, saying that it had done so on Impala police vehicles.
But in a recent filing with the U.S. District Court in Detroit, GM noted that the cars were made by its predecessor General Motors Corp, now called Motors Liquidation Co or “Old GM,” before its 2009 bankruptcy and federal bailout.
The current company, called “New GM,” said it did not assume responsibility under the reorganization to fix the Impala problem, but only to make repairs “subject to conditions and limitations” in express written warranties. In essence, the automaker said, Trusky sued the wrong entity.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/19/gm-impala-lawsuit-idUSN1E77I0Z820110819
BEN! This nighttime stuff is killing me. I am thankful for my new position, which is very challenging, but I miss daytime HBB. I’ve never been so attached to a blog. I still appreciate the diversity of opinions here and I have never been with anything on the internet for this long (maybe Drudge, CNN, The Onion, etc.). That being said…
How can I get rich of this shoe that’s dropping right now?
Firstly, nobody likes advice. Mostly because it goes against ingrained patterns of behavior and things that people consider “truth” (which largely turns out to be a buncha bollocks, but I digress.)
You are EXTREMELY unlikely to “like” this answer but I enjoy being sadistic so I’ll jump in here anyway.
In deflationary episodes (peak-debt, Kondratieff-winter, whatever, etc.) there is exactly one place to play.
It’s called CASH.
That being said, there are more than a few places to play this game.
[0] No debt.
[1] Save more than normal.
[2] Invest in learning (a.k.a. greater potential for future income.)
[3] Have diminished expectations about lifestyle.
Nobody is going to like this “negative nanny” advice but what can one do? Anyone who listened to this advice in Japan in 1990 is laughing all the way to their retirement home.