August 23, 2011

Bits Bucket for August 23, 2011

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




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Comment by jeff saturday
2011-08-23 03:04:19

Shadow inventory improves but still threatens housing recovery

By Les Christie
August 22, 2011: 6:58 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — An ominous cloud is hanging over the housing market: Millions of distressed properties could be put up for sale at any moment, potentially adding to the glut of unsold homes that are already on the market and depressing home prices even further.

“It’s good news that things are starting to slow down and we’re getting closer to the end of the problem,” said Diane Westerback, Managing Director of Global Surveillance Analytics for S&P. “It could mean a gradual recovery for the market.”

Yet, the housing market still has a long way to go. S&P estimates that there are still a total of between 4 million and 5 million homes, including those with agency-backed loans, in shadow inventory, an amount that continues to jeopardize the housing market’s recovery, according to Westerback.

When all of the shadow inventory finally makes it to market, it will likely do so at a deep discount, weighing on overall home prices and depressing values further, said Westerback.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/22/real_estate/foreclosed_homes_shadow_inventory/index.htm - 64k -

Comment by Blue Skye
2011-08-23 06:44:59

which will set the housing market up for the next leg down, and the next wave of foreclosures, and so on and so forth. Eventually our children will be able to afford a house with a regular job.

Now, for those regular jobs…..

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 06:53:52

I have a back-of-the-envelope calculation in yesterday’s bits bucket plus a post from a reputable source which both point to a number in the mid-6 million range as the sum total of U.S. mortgages either in foreclosure or defaulted. I’m not sure where S&P gets its estimates, and I don’t know their definition of “shadow inventory.” But in an age of halfway-true propaganda and shadowy statistical calculations, I take every figure I see in the MSM with a big grain of salt.

And I note that many of the statistics on the size of the Housing Bubble problem have had a way of biggering and biggering over time; remember back when subprime was supposed to be “contained” to $200bn?

 
Comment by Al
2011-08-23 07:25:06

I love these articles that are internally inconsistent. We’re getting close to the end of the problem, yet there are 4-5 million houses out there waiting to come to market. And of course foreclosures have come to a full stop, so the shadow inventory can’t grow….

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 07:33:02

“And of course foreclosures have come to a full stop, so the shadow inventory can’t grow….”

It seems there is a potential for a belief that foreclosures have come to a full stop, and that paperwork problems may prevent many foreclosures from ultimately going through, to encourage many more cash-strapped FBs to go into default.

I expect the number of strategically defaulted mortgages will ultimately prove ‘larger than expected.’

Comment by darrell_in_phoenix
2011-08-23 12:09:18

But, of course, “no one would have been able to see it coming”.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-23 12:31:23

Per LPS, in “normal” times, there are about 2.5 million homes at some stage of delinquency/foreclosure. Today, there are about 6.5 million homes at some stage of delinquency/foreclosure.

New delinquencies are still running at above “normal”, and not all delinquencies turn into foreclosures, so the answer isn’t as simple as 6.5-2.5=4 million of problems to burn through.

I wonder what assumptions go into S&P’s number? Assumptions about new walkaways from all underwater “owners”? Assumptions about cure rates for those in the 6.5 million that only missed 1 payment? Assumptions about short sales? Principal reduction modifications?

We can all be certain of some things:
- S&P will be wrong (in either direction)
- Some places will recover sooner/later based on working through the mess faster (non-judicial/judicial difference)

 
 
 
Comment by jeff saturday
2011-08-23 03:10:18

Homebuyers Hunker Down as Housing’s Drag on Economy May Worsen

By Kathleen M. Howley
Aug 22, 2011 10:56 AM ET

Sanjay Jain called his real estate broker four days ago to cancel a deal to buy a three-bedroom home in Folsom, California, unnerved by another plunge in the most volatile equities market on record.

“Seeing what’s happening on the stock market made me think that it’s not a good time to be buying a home,” Jain said. “I’m going to wait and see.”

Falling Sales, Prices

The real estate market has been struggling after a federal tax credit spurred demand in the second half of 2009 and early 2010. Home sales last month were 9.1 percent below their level at the beginning of the economic expansion two years earlier, data from the National Association of Realtors show. As of May, home prices were 7.3 percent below the start of the recovery, according to the Federal Housing Finance Administration.

The share of mortgages with late payments in the second quarter rose to 8.44 percent from 8.32 percent the previous three months, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported today.

The degenerating housing market has confounded attempts by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to revive demand by lowering interest rates. The Fed purchased more than $2 trillion of mortgage-back securities and Treasury bonds in the last two years to hold down long-term borrowing costs.

Bernanke got the cheaper home-loan financing costs he wanted — last week, rates for 30-year fixed mortgages fell to 4.15 percent, the lowest in more than half a century, according to Freddie Mac. Still, rates that have been below 5 percent in all but two weeks of this year have failed to spur sales enough to support economic growth.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-22/homebuyers-hunker-down-as-housing-s-drag-on-economy-may-worsen.html - 99k -

Comment by Left Ohio
2011-08-23 07:56:16

Got Stagflation?

From MarketWatch: Pay hikes in 2012 won’t outpace inflation

Employees will get an average increase of about 2.8% in 2012 on average … for employees, on average, that translates into salary increases that might not keep up with inflation. The consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 3.6% in the 12 months ending July 2011.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-08-23 08:25:06

I’m actually expecting to get a “better than inflation” raise this year for the first time since the downturn began… I consider this to be an outlier, though.

Comment by drumminj
2011-08-23 08:30:38

I consider this to be an outlier, though.

Google did a 10% across the board raise last year. I thought MS followed suit (or amazon, perhaps?). My company had pretty hearty raises as well (though not 10%). I imagine things this year will be similar based on company performance.

I can’t imagine these are the only companies that are treating their employees well…

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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-08-23 11:59:24

Yeah, my company is definitely doing it because they have fallen “behind market” due to some of the other area companies giving better raises than they have. We have had what I considered sub-inflation raises for the last few years.

So it’s a competitive retention-driven move. Supply and demand, baby!

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-23 12:14:51

So it’s a competitive retention-driven move. Supply and demand, baby!

We may well see more of this in the coming years. From another blog:

Our projections of skill supplies and demands for the US economy stake out a middle ground. We foresee rising demand for highly-educated workers. But in the near term this rising demand will by and large be met by rising education levels among the US population, suggesting little risk of a substantial workforce skills gap. At the same time, there are greater risks of skill shortages in states with large and growing, and less-educated, immigrant populations. And over the longer-term, as more baby boomers retire, there is greater risk of substantial skill shortages nationwide.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-08-23 14:18:29

I tend to agree with that assessment, Slim. It is not going to be a good decade to be a low-skill worker, unless you are happy getting paid Chinese wages.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-23 08:56:19

The degenerating housing market has confounded attempts by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to revive demand by lowering interest rates. The Fed purchased more than $2 trillion of mortgage-back securities and Treasury bonds in the last two years to hold down long-term borrowing costs.

If it’s ultimately a pricing problem, how will lowering interest rates help?

Until Ben can force each and every seller to drop his/her price to levels where people can actually afford to buy, he’s just wasting his time.

Comment by CarrieAnn
2011-08-23 10:30:27

Also doens’t help to lower interest rates when taxes, fees, heating, food, insurance and other necessities continue to rise.

 
 
 
Comment by FB wants a do over
2011-08-23 04:07:30

The mystical and elusive “Job create tors”

Chuck Butler -

In 2005, the U.S. passed the Homeland Investment Act (HIA), which allowed U.S. Corps doing business overseas to bring back their profits to the U.S. at a reduced tax rate… The U.S. did this, because, those Corporations told the Gov’t that the money would be used to increase employment, which would help the economy… Instead they bought back stock and paid dividends…

Well… there’s talk of another HIA (HIA2) and once again the Corporations are touting increased employment… But something funny happened on the way to the forum… and the Washington Post has the skinny… Here’s the Washington Post…

“Some of the country’s best-known multi¬national corporations closely guard a number they don’t want anyone to know: the breakdown between their jobs here and abroad.

So secretive are these companies that they hand the figure over to government statisticians on the condition that officials will release only an aggregate number. The latest data show that multinationals cut 2.9 million jobs in the United States and added 2.4 million overseas between 2000 and 2009.

Some of the same companies that do not report their jobs breakdown, are pushing lawmakers to cut their tax bills in the name of job creation in the United States.

But experts say that without details on which companies are contributing to job growth and which are not, policymakers risk flying blind as they try to jump-start the hiring of American workers. “

Washington Post -

IBM chief executive Sam Palmisano has met a number of times with the president, most recently in July at a lunch with other executives to talk about jobs and the economy. IBM stopped giving its U.S. head count in 2009.

“We just made a policy that we would only break out global head count,” said company spokesman Doug Shelton.

Data from before 2009 showed IBM rapidly shifting workers to India. Dave Finegold, dean of the Rutgers School of Management and Labor Relations, estimates that 2009, when the company stopped sharing its U.S. employment figure, also marked the first time the company had more employees in India than the United States. Finegold based his number on reports from the media, third-party groups and former employees who have tried to track the number.

Comment by combotechie
2011-08-23 05:56:08

“… policymakers risk flying blind …”

What a joke. Policymakers aren’t “flying blind”, they know exactly what is going on.

They don’t want the precise numbers because having the precise numbers voids their already flimsy excuse that these companies were keeping them in the dark all this time.

Comment by Steve J
2011-08-23 08:30:03

I bet the IRS can easily produce any numbers on US based headcount.

 
 
Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2011-08-23 06:05:16

I work for [a company called out in this article]. Last year they bought the small US company that I worked for.

Everytime someone leaves our group, 2 or 3 are hired in China to replace them. We have not added a single new hire USA based employee to our group in the entire time since they bought us. They have moved employees from other groups that are shrinking their USA based employee count, but not a single new hire in the USA.

Comment by measton
2011-08-23 06:52:52

And since
Money = Free Speech and
a large percentage of our population has been conned into supporting the corporatist plan via Fox News and propaganda from corporate financed think tanks, don’t expect a change anytime soon.

Suck it up slaves this is our future.

Comment by michael
2011-08-23 07:03:01

NBC is owned by GE.

Jeffrey Immelt is the chairman and CEO of GE.

One of Obama’s top economic advisors is Jeffrey Immelt.

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Comment by measton
2011-08-23 16:17:12

Agree msm is all corporate owned. Fox get’s special mention because they are the worst of the worst.

Seriously that editing of news footage by Sean Hannity says everything

But Sean Hannity and his team did more than cover the event. They not only inflated the number in attendance with their words, but actually used footage from a heavily-attended protest this summer to make this health care rally appear more popular. Hannity even pointed out that this was a huge crowd for a Thursday, when the protest footage they used was from a Saturday.

Jon Stewart and his team caught this discrepancy and ran with it, pointing out neither the color of the leaves nor sky in the tacked-on video matched that of the actual footage.

It’s one thing to not report on stuff you don’t like and report on stuff you do, but Fox crossed the line.

 
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2011-08-23 20:40:53

Faux News has become the worst in all of journalism.

 
 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2011-08-23 06:58:46

I left a high tech outfit about 20 years ago when they offered me a project of starting up a plant in Taiwan. It was you will do this or else kind of proposal. I said “else, thank you.” Others agreed and went and my neighbors lost jobs. No regrets on my side. They gave away their technology for a short term gain. At the time, I thought the trend would reverse in a few years.

 
 
Comment by polly
2011-08-23 07:52:37

As many of you know, I used to be a corporate tax lawyer in New York. Generally, it was all deal (also known as transactional) work. But once I got dragged on to a litigation dealing with a New York State tax law case. It involved a job creation tax credit and it was the single messiest, nastiest piece of work that I ever dealt with. Ever. Including the one with the privately held company where the family members who weren’t on speaking terms were fighting each other over the treatement of a stock buy back. Messier than trying to provide end-of-life services to dying Aids patients. Just messy.

I have come to the conclusion that “job creation” tax credits or similar rewards just don’t work. Companies hear rumors of it and fire a bunch of people in hopes of being able to claim a credit for hiring them back. Companies that recently expanded whine that they didn’t get a credit and it isn’t FAIR. People demand similar treatment for not firing their current employees because retaining people who they claim they really don’t need or want should also be rewarded. It is a mess. If you want to make employing people cheaper, you can do all sorts of things that have been discussed before - temporarily reducing the employer part of the payroll tax is one of the most obvious, but the earned income tax credit also makes hiring people cheaper since they get “paid” more than the employer pays them to work that job. The best one I can think of would be going to a single payer health system, but that is my personal preference. It isn’t the only way to do it.

In any event, if doing a credit when there is an actual control in place (like trying to count the number of people hired) is hopelessly messy and doesn’t work very well, then doing it and simply “trusting” the corporations that they will use the money to hire people they don’t need in a market where they are not expanding is worse than naive. It is simply asking to be screwed over.

As the former president said, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice…you can’t get fooled again.”

Comment by Housing Wizard
2011-08-23 08:19:07

So true Polly ,your post above my head , that’s why I’m all for penalty taxes in a lot of cases .

 
Comment by oxide
2011-08-23 09:50:49

Polly, your laundry list is pretty frightenin. My question is, how aware are the policymakers of this? Will the current Admin, with advice from the likes of Immelt, fall into this kind of trap?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-23 10:23:01

I’m afraid so, oxide.

And why do I say this? Because the senior officials of the Obama administration are very short on business experience.

Like many administrations, this one is very heavy on people who’ve spent the majority of their careers in academia and government. If they do have business experience, like Immelt, it’s at the very tippety-top of the corporate world.

And, as we HBB-ers have noted many times, those people have, shall we say, less than a robust grasp on the realities of the bulk of our nation’s business community, which is predominantly made up of small and mid-sized businesses.

Even more striking, more and more of our small businesses are what are known as non-employer businesses. Which means that it’s the one-man bands — and one-woman bands.

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Comment by jane
2011-08-23 16:26:34

WOW, Polly, what thoughtful posts!

 
 
Comment by polly
2011-08-23 10:46:51

Of course they are aware of this. But people with huge amounts of money to spend want it and will support it. That is pretty much the only way to get anything done in this toxic political atmosphere (everyone speaks money), so it might happen just to fill in the “we need leadership” and “do something about unemployment” gaps. It really is a terrible way to run a country.

I was perfectly serious last week about trying to get a few people to run for Congress pledging to take zero special interest money and no donations over $200 and no “aggregators” and refusing to talk to anyone who mentions money to the candidate/official. People elected that way would have almost no power to pursuade others to work with them, but they would have some power to shame. We could use a bit of that in DC.

By the way, the actual worst reason to do job creation tax credits is that you give a lot of money to people who were going to hire anyway because they need the manpower. You get no marginal benefit for that money at all. Losing all that revenue to get the exact same result you would have had if you didn’t lose it is no way to reduce the deficit. It is a problem in all the programs that subsidize employment that I mentioned except single payer health insurance since that has the potential to save money.

This is the thoughtful person’s version of being a young liberal and an older conservative. I have seen things that sound good to young ears fail when put into practice. If the republicans were what they used to be before I was born, I might be one today. They aren’t and I’m not, but I do believe in reality checks on programs before jumping in with both feet.

By the way, another program that doesn’t deserve to see the light of day under this standard is cap and trade. Way too many ways to mess with that one, and I don’t even want to think of the money that the investment banks and the hedge funds would make off it. There are other reasons too complicated to get into, but it would be a huge mess. A plain old ordinary carbon tax (starting very small and gradually and predictably growing larger) is the way to play that one (though it has problems of its own). And you don’t have to “believe” in global warming to want to do it. The amount of oil sitting underneath people who don’t like us is more than enough reason. It is a national security issue.

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Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-23 13:43:52

Over the years, I’ve had the opportunity to observe/speak with several politicians…..State Governor, a couple of US Senators/Reps., etc.

Generally, a sleazy bunch. Even when the cameras aren’t around, they speak in soundbytes.

One of the few exceptions was Phil Graves, the former Governor of Kansas. Visited/shaking hands in our department in Wichita one day, with his wife, and a few of the corporate muckety mucks.

Started a conversation with one of the guys. It soon became evident that our guy didn’t have a clue as to who he was. Graves’s wife started ROTFLHAO……..not at our guy, but at her husband.

He just went ahead and introduced himself, without embarrasing the guy. Handled it very diplomatically.

 
Comment by aragonzo
2011-08-23 14:31:36

Polly, holidaying in BC has changed you. BC is home to a graduated carbon tax that has brought nothing but complaints but still manages to keep going. It is working here, for the most part.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2011-08-23 15:29:08

I was perfectly serious last week about trying to get a few people to run for Congress pledging to take zero special interest money and no donations over $200 and no “aggregators” and refusing to talk to anyone who mentions money to the candidate/official. People elected that way would have almost no power to pursuade others to work with them, but they would have some power to shame. We could use a bit of that in DC.

Right now we have govenment of the highest bidder, by the highest bidder, for the highest bidder.

It would be nice to get back government of the people, by the people, for the people.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2011-08-23 15:33:00

By the way, another program that doesn’t deserve to see the light of day under this standard is cap and trade. Way too many ways to mess with that one, and I don’t even want to think of the money that the investment banks and the hedge funds would make off it.

Taibbi wrote about this in his seminal “vampire squid” piece in Rolling Stone:

Gone are Hank Paulson and Neel Kashkari; in their place are Treasury chief of staff Mark Patterson and CFTC chief Gary Gensler, both former Goldmanites. (Gensler was the firm’s co-head of finance.) And instead of credit derivatives or oil futures or mortgage-backed CDOs, the new game in town, the next bubble, is in carbon credits — a booming trillion dollar market that barely even exists yet, but will if the Democratic Party that it gave $4,452,585 to in the last election manages to push into existence a groundbreaking new commodities bubble, disguised as an “environmental plan,” called cap-and-trade.

The new carbon credit market is a virtual repeat of the commodities-market casino that’s been kind to Goldman, except it has one delicious new wrinkle: If the plan goes forward as expected, the rise in prices will be government-mandated. Goldman won’t even have to rig the game. It will be rigged in advance.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-great-american-bubble-machine-20100405?page=7

 
Comment by oxide
2011-08-23 15:43:55

I remember a story about Gas B which was a byproduct of Gas A. Gas B was a real global-warmer, but there was a way to filter B out. Pretty soon everybody wanted to make A just so they could claim the carbon credit for filtering out B, even through they didn’t need to make A.

I know the story doesn’t go exactly this way, (I think it was a refrigerant in Chindia), but it showed a perveted way for people to make money from cap and trade.

I think the best way to eliminate carbon is the same way they shojld eliminate drugs — curb demand. For example, Ford’s idea of a one-stop-shop where they combine a plug-in car with a solar panel package is pretty cool. I think there’s a deal on the car charger too.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by jane
2011-08-23 04:11:01

To all HBB’ers in Colorado - wishing you well, and hope the earthquake this morning did not disrupt your lives, or cause you ill effect. Best to you.

Comment by In Colorado
2011-08-23 06:46:20

I didn’t even feel it. According to the Denver Post it was located near the border with New Mexico and was a relatively mild 5.3 on the Richter scale.

Comment by polly
2011-08-23 14:35:27

And I did feel the DC area earthquake. Wow. That is quite an experience. Started as if someone was rocking our cubicle unit. Then there was a lot more. We spent about an hour standing around in a park and then they sent us home. No idea why. I expect they have to check the buildings to make sure the bathrooms work. Or it might have had to do with the commute home. Wasn’t even the worst Metro commute I’ve ever had.

Apartment is fine. Nothing seems damaged or even shifted.

Hope everyone else is fine.

 
 
 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-23 04:27:41

Realtors Are Liars®

 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 05:27:20

Nobody wants a strong currency
Steve Saville

The world of policy-making is dominated by Mercantilism and Keynesianism.

Under the Mercantilist way of thinking, the greater the level of goods exports relative to goods imports, the better. Or, looking at it from another angle, from the perspective of a Mercantilist a good policy is one that maximises the amount of money flowing into the country by maximising the amount of goods flowing out of the country.

Under the Keynesian way of thinking, spending drives the economy and recessions happen when mysterious forces — sometimes called “animal spirits” — cause spending to fall by too much. A great example of the Keynesian way of thinking is Paul Krugman’s recent claim that the global economy would be shifted onto a sustainable upward trajectory if the governments of the world began preparing for an alien invasion that never happens. The idea that an economy can be helped by consuming a huge amount of resources in a totally wasteful manner is consistent with Keynesian economic theory.

It’s not surprising, then, that a strong currency is anathema to most policy-makers. Currency strength will make life more difficult for goods exporters in the short-term, which is the only term that matters to most politicians, and persistent currency strength will tend to promote saving. In the real world, saving is the cornerstone of economic progress; but in the upside-down world of the Keynesian, more saving is bad because it means less immediate spending.

Due to the theories that guide their thinking, policy-makers will often panic if their currency achieves large gains against the currencies of their trading partners. For example, Swiss policy-makers recently began to show signs of panic in response to the Swiss Franc’s performance relative to the euro. As illustrated by the following chart, the euro, which had been weakening steadily against the Swiss Franc for more than two years, commenced an accelerated decline at the end of June. At its low point earlier this month, the euro had lost about one quarter of its value against the Swiss Franc (SF) in only 4 months.

In response to the performance depicted above, some Swiss policy-makers and influential business leaders have recommended that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) immediately set a lower limit of 1.10 for the euro/SF rate and then gradually increase this limit over time. In other words, the suggestion has been made that the SNB do whatever it takes to firstly prevent the SF from strengthening any further and secondly reverse the SF’s long-term upward trend.

We have some sympathy for Swiss exporters. It must be difficult to remain competitive when the currency in which your exports are priced weakens relentlessly against the currency in which most of your costs are denominated. However, any short-term solution that involves depressing the relative value of the SF is likely to have dire long-term consequences. The reason is that the only effective way to change the SF’s trend is to greatly increase the supply of this currency.

The SF’s value relative to the euro will fall if the SF supply is boosted to a sufficient extent, but the monetary inflation will promote widespread mal-investment and sow the seeds of an eventual economic bust. It could even sow the seeds of hyperinflation. The reason is that for the SNB to ensure relative weakness in the SF it will have to consistently inflate at a faster rate than the ECB, and the ECB could end up inflating rapidly as it desperately attempts to hold Europe’s monetary union together by bailing out banks and other bondholders.

The world’s monetary system appears to have degenerated to the point where there are no good options, meaning that economic hardship lies along every possible path. However, policy-makers could minimise the hardship by not entering, or withdrawing, from the ‘race to the bottom’ in which most currencies are presently engaged. This would be the best way to protect the savings that will be needed to fuel sustainable economic growth in the future.

We advise against holding your breath while waiting for the current gaggle of policy-makers to do the right thing.

###

Steve Saville
email: sas888_hk@yahoo.com
Hong Kong

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-23 06:28:14

The world’s monetary system appears to have degenerated to the point where there are no good options, meaning that economic hardship lies along every possible path.

“Everywhere, everywhere,… boil, boil, toil$ & trouble$ ;-)

China: 1.34 Billions
India: 1.1 Billions

USA: 314 Millions

“All roads lead to Berlin!” … from “In the Loop”

Comment by oxide
2011-08-23 10:46:08

Texas notwithstanding, the US has a lot more water, and better management, than India and China.

Although we think of the East Coast as crowded compared to the West, the East Coast is a lot less crowded than India and the arable parts of China.

 
 
Comment by measton
2011-08-23 07:03:27

This guy is an idiot. No country can sit by while another country lowers its currency and steals it’s industry. The US is a perfect example of this. The only way to maintain a strong currency while keeping unemployment from rocketing higher in this setting is to use Tariffs or restrict trade.

There would be no major problem for workers from inflation if Keynsian stimulus boosted their paychecks. Then inflation would be offset by a higher paycheck. The problem comes when the money ends up in the hands of the elite who drive up prices by hoarding forcing workers to spend more of their paycheck on needs. This creates more unemployment as workers cut back on other spending. It won’t solve the debt problem. It also creates a unstable system with huge imbalances. Those sitting on commodities may at some point need to off load those into a market with no demand.

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2011-08-23 05:32:12

Detroit faces increasing problems with squatters
Chicago Tribune | August 23, 2011

DETROIT— Detroit is facing an increase in complaints about squatters as foreclosures leave more homes empty.

City officials and residents say they’re increasingly seeing people take over empty houses and call them their own. Once they’re inside, officials say it’s difficult to get them to leave because the eviction process can take months.

Legally, the homeowner or banks can seek to remove squatters. If an owner isn’t around, neighbors who spot squatters can have a tough time getting them out.

City ombudsman Durene Brown has a thick stack of complaints about squatting received over the past two years. The newspaper reports that a few years ago about 100 people a year called with complaints about squatting; now, about 300 people a year make calls.

Comment by palmetto
2011-08-23 06:01:30

Detroit. Stick a fork in it, it’s done. Freakin’ shame, too. Gave us a lot of good music. The auto industry may have pulled out, but nobody mentions the desertion of Berry Gordy.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-23 08:59:56

Here in Tucson, I’m seeing vacant properties with sleeping pads in the yards. Those pads are left by homeless people, who may or may not come back to use them again.

I’ve made reports to the city, but I can’t seem to get any action. Anyone had any success with such reporting where they live?

Comment by polly
2011-08-23 09:20:05

You probably haven’t had any success because until you can say you have seem something illegal, there isn’t anything a cop can do. People who own a house are allowed to leave stuff in their back yards. You know the owners are long gone, but the cops can’t really take action based on you knowing it. And I wouldn’t bet that they can do anything if it is only a neighbor reporting a trespass.

Now, if you saw them doing drugs or something else illegal (or saw the supplies) around, you might have something to report that they could deal with. Other than that, I think you are out of luck.

 
 
 
Comment by Insurance Guy
2011-08-23 05:43:07

If the hurricane hits houses that are facing foreclosure and unoccupied, then they are likely to turn in into total losses.

And condominium associations will struggle to make the repairs when it is difficult to make assessments.

I am kinda gloomy today.

Comment by combotechie
2011-08-23 06:36:15

“I am kinda gloomy today.”

If your screen name is the same as your occupation then I don’t blame you. If it were me I would be gloomy every day.

Insurance companies are in a simalar situation that banks are in in that the value of the financial assets that back their commitments are taking a huge dive.

Contraction means subtraction.

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 07:30:22

Not only that, but the availability of so much free government insurance tends to crowd out private insurance. Imagining being in the mortgage insurance business, only to learn that upwards of 90% of new mortgages come with a (”free”) federal guarantee?

 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 05:46:14

Sales of New U.S. Homes Probably Fell in July - Bloomberg

Purchases of new U.S. homes probably fell for a third straight month in July, pointing to lingering housing market weakness two years into the economic recovery, economists said before a report today.

Sales fell 0.6 percent to a 310,000 annual pace, the slowest in four months, from a 312,000 rate in June, according to the median estimate of 75 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Purchases last year totaled 323,000, the fewest since record-keeping began in 1963.

Builders are less inclined to start new projects as they face competition from cheaper existing homes and the prospect of foreclosures putting more unsold properties on the market. A jobless rate above 9 percent and limited employment growth indicate housing will weigh on the recovery even with mortgage rates at a record low.

“Real estate activity was very quiet through July,” said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica Inc. in Dallas. “Households and businesses are very much on recession-watch.”

The Commerce Department’s report is due at 10 a.m. in Washington. Projections in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 290,000 to 325,000.

Distressed properties, which include foreclosures and short-sales, have made up about 33 percent of all existing-home purchases since late 2008, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Sales of previously owned houses, which account for the bulk of the market, fell last month to the slowest pace since November, the NAR reported on Aug. 18. The 3.5 percent decrease reflected an increase in cancelations due to strict lending rules and low appraisals.

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 07:13:28

Let me offer two predictions:

1) In the wake of the debt ceiling deal and following stock market turmoil, August new home sales will drop again by a large amount.

2) MSM articles will claim that analysts were surprised by the sizable drop in sales.

Aug. 23, 2011, 10:00 a.m. EDT
July new home sales fall for 3rd straight month
By Greg Robb

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch)– Purchases of new home in the U.S. fell for the third straight month in July, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. New home sales fell 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 298,000. The drop was a surprise to analysts. The consensus forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch was for new home sales to rise 1% to 315,000. New-home sales in June fell a revised 2.9% to a 300,000 level compared with the previous estimate of a 1% fall to 312,000. New-home sales are up 6.8% compared with a year ago. The supply of new homes inched down 0.6% to a record low 165,000. The supply in relation to sales held steady at 6.6 months in July. Median sales prices have risen 4.7% in the past year to $222,000.

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 07:14:58

“The supply of new homes inched down 0.6% to a record low 165,000.”

It’s great to know there are 6 million or so homes in foreclosure or default that will eventually be available for home buyers who don’t absolutely ‘need’ to have a new home.

 
 
 
Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2011-08-23 05:56:55

Just listened to an interview with Jon Huntsman. Then went and read his web site.

Just like the rest, either he is clueless, or pretends to be.

Pushes free trade because it creates millions of American jobs. Yeah, you moron, but it costs 10s of millions.

Pushes lower taxes on the rich… Same BS about needing to flatten the tax code and broaden the base. “We need more tax payers”. HELLO moron. Payroll taxes ARE taxes. Flatten the tax code by getting rid of payroll taxes and reating capital gains as income? Oh.. no. Ignore the regressive payroll and capital gains taxes, and just eliminate tax deductions and then use that revenue ot lower rates, putting more of the burden on the people with the least income while easing the burden on those with the most income.

So, how does he think business can function when US consumers will have even less money to spend? Oh.. that’s simple. He is writing off the US consumer. Focuses on the fact that only 5% of potential customers are in the USA. Imagine how great the world would be if we could drive the US population into poverty so they will work for a pathetic wage that allows us to undercut China and sell our goods to the rest of the world.

Really?

That is solution?

Oh, did I mention he is in favor of a balanced budget ammendment without revenue increases, that he nicely forgets to mention would require more than 50% cuts to Medicare and Social Security. Oh, wait. He doesn’t want to cut defense to get to the balanced budget without additional revenues… My bad. Call in 75% cuts to Social Security and Medicare. We don’t need no stinking US citizens buying anything when 95% of potential customers live outside the USA, and we can’t sell to those people until USA wages are so low that we can compete with Chindia.

And, he calls himself more electable than Bachman, Romney and Perry? Why? Oh, right. Because he is a morman, not a christian. He hasn’t gone on record saying evolution and global warming are lies. He hasn’t said that Bernanke printing more money to try to prevent economic collapse would be treason.

Really? That’s what he’s got?

Comment by Stpn2me
2011-08-23 06:17:08

Ignore the regressive payroll and capital gains taxes, and just eliminate tax deductions and then use that revenue ot lower rates, putting more of the burden on the people with the least income while easing the burden on those with the most income.

I didnt know here in the U.S. we are being classified differently. I thought we were all equal as citizens. My bad.

BTW,

Because you will be taxing me more, what do I get for my money? Only that fuzzy good feeling inside? Can you do better than that?

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-23 06:58:58

Because you will be taxing me more, what do I get for my money? Only that fuzzy good feeling inside?

Now you have problem$ with “Nation building”,…now?

Comment by ahansen
2011-08-23 23:03:12

Tee hee, Hwy

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Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2011-08-23 06:59:46

Prevention of global economic collapse.

Money is other peoples’ debt. If those other people can’t get the money becuase the people with it won’t sepnd it, then the debt WILL default, WILL be written off as uncollectable, WILL casue the money that the debt borrowed into existance to cease to exist, WILL cause people to lose faith in money, and WILL result in depression.

The better question is, why do you want to hold a bunch of IOUs which will prove to be worthless if we do not reverse the trade deficits that created those IOUs in the first place?

A time will come when businesses are far more concerned that their customers don’t have any money, than they are concerned on what tax rate they would be paying on profits that they do not have.

Comment by polly
2011-08-23 08:09:01

Eh, I don’t know about preventing the global economic collapse. That is putting too much on the US. But being able to continue to live in the society that has set up the mechanisms (like law and order and property rights) that allow you to become wealthy is right up there. How profitable would businesses be if they had to negociate everytime they moved goods off their own land? And had to defend every inch of that land with independent fire power? Philosophy may say all human lives are equally valuable but I would pay a lot more to protect my life than a homeless person would because I have the means to do so. The fact that I pay for that through my taxes is irrelevant.

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Comment by Patrick
2011-08-23 09:03:33

“Eh, I don’t know about–”

Polly I see you picked up the Canadian language on your holiday - eh?

 
Comment by polly
2011-08-23 09:36:42

I was using a shorter “e” than our northern friends generally do, but it is a useful verbal tick. To my American ears, it sounds more like a pause in which thought is happening than “uh” or “um.”

 
 
 
Comment by drumminj
2011-08-23 08:56:01

Hey, Stpn. Good to see you on here again. Hope you’re doing well back stateside!

Comment by Stpn2me
2011-08-23 14:11:17

Good to be here. Living in PA now…

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-23 15:52:31

Welcome home, Stpn2me! Are you stationed at Carlisle now?

 
 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-08-23 09:27:45

I didnt know here in the U.S. we are being classified differently. I thought we were all equal as citizens.

Great point. We are equal. That’s why income and wealth distribution should be more equal.

 
 
Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2011-08-23 06:33:36

I can’t begin to put into words how amazingly depressing it is to realize that our current president is one of the worst in history, yet I’ll likely be forced to vote for him again because the alternatives are far, far worse.

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 06:59:17

Stop putting so much faith in the presidency, then. It’s time to realize that the myth that the president pulls all the levers is just a political meme to make you want to vote for the lever-puller who does the job of convincing you he is best. The American presidency was not designed by the founding fathers to be a monarchy, and we should stop buying into and thereby supporting the notion that it is one.

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-23 07:11:51

founding fathers distorted reconciled logic: “I’m the Decider!” ;-)

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Comment by drumminj
2011-08-23 08:57:57

Stop putting so much faith in the presidency, then.

Holy crap, PB. I finally agree with you wholeheartedly :) Yes, people need to stop focusing on the presidency and realize that congress (and local governments) are much to blame/have a lot of power over things too.

Now where’s that unicorn..I need to go put a candy bowl under his ass….

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Comment by Awaiting
2011-08-23 12:02:32

“Now where’s that unicorn..I need to go put a candy bowl under his ass….”

LOL I needed that.

 
 
 
Comment by measton
2011-08-23 07:07:54

Darrell he is not one of the worst, he is just another puppet doing the same things economically that Reagan Bush Clinton and GW did. The gov has been taken over by the elite and they have used their power to F this country out of it’s last penny.

 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 07:49:49

Please do, I’m loving this guy!

 
Comment by oxide
2011-08-23 09:58:19

Not even close, Darrell.

He’s the “worst” President because the presidents before him were a lot worse than he is. Obama is trying to fix 30 years of trickle-down sh!t and the R’s in the Senate filibustered everything he tried to do.

Comment by darrell_in_phoenix
2011-08-23 12:07:05

That is just it.

Sure, he inherited 30+ years of horrid policy.

I don’t see him even trying to fix anything. He propped up the debt. He treid to re-tumpstart the debt growth with short-term stimulus. He has tried to lock suckers into underwater mortgages with dung balls like HAMP.

His one big push was for a healthcare bill, but what we got was a deal negotiated between providers that want more people covered and insurance companies that want to provide that coverage at a hefty profit.

He continued the Bush wars, kept Bush’s Fed Chairman, signed off on extension of the Bush era tax cuts, kept the Bush treasury and it use of TARP in tact…

He isn’t trying to fix anything. He’s trying to apply some bubble gum and bailing wire to the fundamentally broken supply-side economics in hopes of restarting the debt engine.

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Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2011-08-23 13:16:03

He can’t fix anything. Extend and pretend IS the country policy.

But even if he did do “something,” as in what his detractors keep suggesting he do (no more QE, reduce spending, etc), would he be championed by them as responsible with the country’s finances, or would he be the devil for further killing the economy?

He should have demanded a recount when he had the chance. :-)

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-23 13:24:32

His one big push was for a healthcare bill, but what we got was a deal negotiated between providers that want more people covered and insurance companies that want to provide that coverage at a hefty profit.

In the meantime, people are dropping health insurance coverage right and left.

And why might that be? Premium hikes into the stratosphere, that’s why.

 
 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-08-23 06:55:30

Pushes free trade because it creates millions of American jobs.

Like I keep saying, for these people Globalism is like a religion, something they take as a matter of faith. It doesn’t matter that the evidence that it’s bad for us is easily seen, they will insist that exporting all of our industries, jobs and know how will somehow benefit us. I guess we’ll have to hire more truckers, stevedores and warehouse workers to handle all the imports.

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2011-08-23 07:09:28

“that the evidence that it’s bad for us is easily seen”

And there is the disconnect. There “us” is not our “us”.

Huntsman makes it clear that his “us” are the billionaires that own 90% of the wealth of this country. He could not care less about anyone else. We need jobs… yeah, low wage jobs cranking out products to compete with Chindia, so corproations can profit by selling those products to the 95% of potential customers that live outside the USA.

He doesn’t care if the jobs have high wages to provide a good living to USA citizens. He cares that those jobs produce insane profits to corporations.

We can’t understand why “they” love globalism when it is so clearly harming “us”. “They” are not “us”.

 
 
Comment by CharlieTango
2011-08-23 07:06:12

“he is a morman, not a christian”

just curious how you figure that? do you know the name of the morman church?

The church of JESUS CHRIST of latter day saints.

kinda wierd that if i join the church of Jesus Christ you will claim that i am not a christian? was up with that?

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 07:16:44

Fundamentalist mindset:

“My faith is God’s one true religion; yours is a cult.”

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 07:18:27

Disclaimer: I consider myself personally qualified to comment on this, as I grew up in a fundamentalist household, and later deprogrammed all of them. :-)

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Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-23 07:31:36

“you had me at…deprogrammed” Rachel Lapp (Kelly McGillis)

 
 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-23 07:31:27

Most denomination offshoots are cults. In particular the fundies like Calvalry churches. *They* are the true disciples according to them.

Sickos.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 09:33:18

I’d go so far as to suggest that it is pretty important for a new denomination offshoot to convince adherents that they are the “one true church” and all others before them are wrong. Product differentiation through convincing adherents that yours is the “one true church” is a defining feature of the monopolistically-competitive Abrahamic religious tradition.

 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2011-08-23 10:00:32

ALL religions are cults. But if they manage to survive long enough they become known as sects. And if in addition they attract enough followers they become known as religions.

 
 
Comment by darrell_in_phoenix
2011-08-23 12:25:59

I’m an atheist thanks, not a fundamentalist believer in any religion.

Mormons do not believe in the holy trinity as is the foundation of true Christianity.

Mormons do not believe that God had himself born of a virgin, then sacraficed himself to himself to fogive himself for making humans sinners. They do not believe corporal son God is now seated at the right hand of himself (corporal father God) as he is not really there at all since he’s also non-corporal (use the force Luke) God that is everywhere all the time (surrounding us, flowing through us, controlling our actions).

Sorry, but without the belief that Jesus is the one and only true lamb of God, and that the only way into heaven is to accept Jesus is the one and only true path to salvation, then the religion is not Christian.

Call it Jesus Christ of Later Day Saints all you want, but the “later day saints” means it isn’t Christianity.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-23 13:10:28

Greatest professor I had the privilege of being lectured to once said something that has stayed with me to this day…

He told a story of a trip to Africa, where he was asked to take a “crazy woman” out of a village because he (the professor) was known to have had transportation (a jeep). After taking the woman away, he asked the villagers what had happened and why they wanted her out of the village. They said that she was “speaking in tongues”. This was part of their religion, but they said “she was doing it at the wrong time”.

His comment (and conclusion of the lecture):

“There is a fine line between being so crazy that you are run out of town, and being just sane enough that they celebrate your birthday 2,000 years after you die.”

The class ended with both cheers and boos.

Great class…

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Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-23 07:27:47

“kinda wierd that if i join the church of Jesus Christ you will claim that i am not a christian? was up with that?”

Your first task is to understand what Christian means.

Comment by MrBubble
2011-08-23 08:01:43

“our first task is to understand what Christian means.”

I reckon that most Christians need to ask themselves what Christian means. I’m not attacking you, just saying that the devil wears the hypocrite’s shoe.

“Most denomination offshoots are cults”

I’ll bet that the majority of people on the planet would aver that most of these upstart, new-kid-on-the-block denominations are cults, period.

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Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-23 08:26:43

I think you’re right. Especially those who wear the “Christian” label in North America. They actually believe that bombing brown people and such is Christian.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-08-23 08:58:19

“I reckon that most Christians need to ask themselves what Christian means.”

+1, MrBubble! I’m of the firm belief that if Christ did come back, he would be pissed at a lot of what is done in his name.

 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-23 09:17:42

“I’m of the firm belief that if Christ did come back, he would be pissed at a lot of what is done in his name.”

BINGO!

In the meantime, when we leave here, we’ll be asked one simple question…. “What did you do for my people”.

Hint- He’s not talking about the jews.

 
Comment by CrackerBob
2011-08-23 10:44:13

Here’s the difference:

Christians believe that Jesus Christ walked the Earth 2000 years ago.

Mormons believe that Jesus walked the US in 1850.

That is about it. Oh, and the Mormons have a boatload of blond MILF’s for wives.

 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-23 11:02:21

….. and a pedophile for a prophet.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2011-08-23 13:25:29

blond MILFs = recruiting department

 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-08-23 08:25:35

just curious how you figure that? do you know the name of the morman church?

The church of JESUS CHRIST of latter day saints.

The LDS have a very different understanding of who Jesus is than Catholics, Orthodox, Protestant and other Christians.

Mainstream Chritianity is monotheistic. The LDS flavor could be described as Polytheistic as Mormons can become gods in the afterlife (some call this henotheism). This is why many groups insist that the LDS are not Christians. That they worship a different god whose name happens to be Jesus.

The RCC used to accept LDS baptisms as valid (as they do with most Protestant baptisms) but that policy was changed a few years ago.

It’s a real can of worms that it probably best discussed somewhere else.

Comment by Steve J
2011-08-23 08:41:54

“Remember that God, our heavenly Father, was perhaps once a child, a mortal like we ourselves, and rose step by step in the scale of progress, in the school of advancement; has moved forward and overcome, until He has arrived at the point were He is.”
LDS Apostle Orson Hyde,
Mormon Journal of Discourses, vol. 1, page 123. 

“When the Virgin Mary conceived the Child Jesus … He was not begotten by the Holy Ghost. And who is His father? He is the first of the human family”   (Brigham Young, Journal of Discourses, pages 50-51).

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Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-23 08:45:53

And would those “verses” be found in the gospels or the epistles? Perhaps in the OT? lmao.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-08-23 09:40:29

Does anyone know what kind of carpenter Jesus was? Like was he a rough-in carpenter or did he make furniture?

If so I’d love to buy one of his tables or chairs.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-08-23 12:01:53

Must have been a finish-carpenter. :-)

 
 
Comment by MrBubble
2011-08-23 08:41:56

“Mainstream Chritianity is monotheistic.”

There is one fairly large sect that believes in something called the Trinity. The difference between it and pantheism seems like a real close shave. Three in one, one in three? Seems like the ravings of Gen. Jack D Ripper, “Peace on Earth, Purity of Essence.”

I’m going to think on “the mystery of faith” on my bike ride on this day/week off. Actually, I did enough thinking on it when I was 15 and bailed on the whole she-bag. I’ll just think about my family and soon to be new community and make my bike seat a church pew (with apologies to Thoreau!) Onward, Christian (Muslim, Jewish, Hindu, Wiccan, Shinto, Buddist, etc.) cyclists!

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Comment by In Colorado
2011-08-23 10:25:37

“There is one fairly large sect that believes in something called the Trinity”

That would include

Catholics
Orthodox
Copts
Most Protestants

 
Comment by polly
2011-08-23 14:48:27

Most Protestants? Are there Protestants that don’t believe in the Trinity?

This has been a fascinating discussion. I really need to take a look at that Book of Mormon I picked up for free at a rock shop in Utah all those years ago.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2011-08-23 05:58:19

Hope and change and four more years…

And from CBS!

————————

National debt has increased $4 trillion under Obama
cbsnews.com - By Mark Knoller

The latest posting by the Treasury Department shows the national debt has now increased $4 trillion on President Obama’s watch.

The debt was $10.626 trillion on the day Mr. Obama took office. The latest calculation from Treasury shows the debt has now hit $14.639 trillion.

It’s the most rapid increase in the debt under any U.S. president.

The national debt increased $4.9 trillion during the eight-year presidency of George W. Bush. The debt now is rising at a pace to surpass that amount during Mr. Obama’s four-year term.

Mr. Obama blames policies inherited from his predecessor’s administration for the soaring debt. He singles out:

“two wars we didn’t pay for” “a prescription drug program for seniors…we didn’t pay for.” “tax cuts in 2001 and 2003 that were not paid for.”

He goes on to blame the recession, and its resulting decrease in tax revenue on businesses, for making fewer sales, and more employees being laid off. He says the recession also resulted in more government spending due to increased unemployment insurance payments, subsidies to farms and funding of infrastructure programs that were part of his stimulus program.

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2011-08-23 06:10:11

Now look at private sector debt growth under Bush Jr.

Is Obama really a suck president, simply becasue he is leaning against another Wall Street speculative Ponzi bubble like junk bonds, DotComs, and housing?

Really?

Or is there something else wrong with our country that prevents the economy from functioning in the absence of a speculative Ponzi bubble generating unrealizable gains?

 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-23 06:37:34

Jan 19th 2009: “We want lil’ Opie to succeed, really we do!…see y’all!” ;-)

Cheney-$hrub $hadow Quote #137

 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 06:49:12

New national debt data: It’s growing about $3 million a minute, even during his vacation Top of the Ticket
Andrew Malcolm - L.A. Times August 23, 2011

Swallow all liquids in your mouth before reading any further.

Updated numbers for the national debt are just out: It’s now $14,639,000,000,000.

When Barack Obama took the oath of office twice on Jan. 20, 2009, CBS’ amazing number cruncher Mark Knoller reports, the national debt was $10,626,000,000,000.

That means the debt that our federal government owes a whole lot of somebodies including China has increased $4,247,000,000,000 in just 945 days. That’s the fastest increase under any president ever.

Remember the day the Democrat promised to close the embarrassing Guantanamo Bay Detention Facility within one year? That day the national debt increased $4,247,000,000. And each day since that the facility hasn’t been closed.

Same for the day in 2009 when Obama flew all the way out to Denver to sign the $787 billion stimulus bill that was going to hold national unemployment beneath 8% instead of the 9.1% we got today anyway? Another $4,247,000,000 that day. And every day since, even Obama golfing and vacation days.

Same sum for the day Obama flew Air Force One nearly four hours roundtrip to Columbus, Ohio for a 10-minute speech about how well the stimulus was working in the politically crucial Buckeye state. Ohio’s unemployment rate just jumped to 9% from 8.8% anyway.Obama stops his tour bus to Eat some Ice Cream in Iowa 8-16-11

Or last week’s three-day Midwestern tour in the president’s new $1.1 million Death Star bus? National debt went up $16,988,000,000 while he rode around speaking and buying ice cream cones.

Numbers with that many digits are hard to grasp, even for a Harvard head. So, let’s put it another way:

One billion seconds ago Bill Clinton was nearing the end of his two terms and George W. Bush’s baseball collection was still on the shelves in the Austin governor’s office.

The nation’s debt increased $4.9 trillion under President Bush too, btw. But it took him 2,648 days to do it. Obama will surpass that sum during this term.

Now, how to portray a trillion, or 1,000 billions. One trillion seconds ago much of North America was still covered by ice sheets hundreds of feet thick. And the land was dotted by only a few dozen Starbuck’s.

Obama is saying yes, we can get control of the national debt. But ominously every time he says that he adds that trillions of dollars in infrastructure repairs are badly needed across the country. And with interest rates so low, according to the thinking on Obama’s planet, now is an excellent time to borrow even more money.

So, it looks like not too long before Americans learn what comes after 1,000 trillions.

It’s quadrillion. But for Bernanke’s sake, please don’t tell anyone in Washington.

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-23 07:22:15

So, it looks like not too long before Americans learn what comes after 1,000 trillions.

It’s quadrillion.

So, that’s the “What’s-America’s worth” figure that seems to have been mi$$ing from all the “America-i$-ju$t-about-ready-to-collap$e” fear-monger$ Progni$ticator$?

Where’s that China $ame-day-pay-day loan application, they’ve mi$-calculated their lending percentage$. ;-)

 
Comment by Al
2011-08-23 07:55:52

A new record will be set under the next president, regardless who it is or what political stripes they wear. I won’t matter who controls congress of the senate. Debt will grow faster because nothing is or will be changed.

I give myself one out from this prediction. The debt growth won’t set new records if the next president is the one to default.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-08-23 06:58:27

While I grow increasingly disappointed with Obama I harbor no delusions that it would have been any different had McCain won. And the prospect of Perry or Bachmann gives me such Heebie Jeebies that I would probably hold my nose and vote for Obama next year.

Comment by 2banana
2011-08-23 07:25:14

While I grow increasingly disappointed with Obama I harbor no delusions that it would have been any different had McCain won.

At the very least with McCain:
No Obamacare
No Stimulus
No war in Libya

About $1.5-2.0 Trillion in savings.

Hey - it is a start!

Comment by Blue Skye
2011-08-23 07:46:26

one for three.

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Comment by MightyMike
2011-08-23 07:52:44

Actually, the health care law is projected to save money. Also, “No Stimulus” would have meant even higher unemployment.

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Comment by The_Overdog
2011-08-23 08:33:13

I’ll give you no obamacare, but McCain was on some show yesterday talking how he thinks we should help the Libians more with airpower (he hemmed and hawwed about ground troops - if he were president there would be ground troops) than we currently are because he looked in their eyes and saw freedom.

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Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-23 09:02:15

Eyes think she says more “truthfully” what you’re aiming to instill: ;-)

Jennifer Delany’s email to Lewis’ campaign said, in part, “Imagine having dark skin and name recognition and the nerve to think that equaled knowing something about politics.”

NJ GOP lawmaker quit over wife’s Carl Lewis email:
Ap News / APBy ANGELA DELLI SANTI - Associated Press |13 hrs ago

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Comment by oxide
2011-08-23 10:04:38

Libya sounds like it will cost about a billion. Total.

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Comment by oxide
2011-08-23 10:06:01

McCain would have made the Bush tax cuts permanent. Add 3-4 trillion.

 
Comment by oxide
2011-08-23 10:07:37

McCain would have bom bom bom, bom bommed Iran. Add another 5 trillion.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2011-08-23 10:28:56

bonbon or bomb?

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2011-08-23 11:46:43

No Oxide, the real cost of Libya for this country’s consumers is about $400 million dollars per day which is arrived at by the increased cost of oil of $20 dollars a barrel times the number of barrels used per day. Yes, a good deal of that if for domestically produced oil so some of that does come back to the consumer but I think what has happened to the economy shows that most of it is not coming back. Also, it was the straw that broke the camel’s back in Europe and since oil production in Libya is not yet back on the costs increase (U.S. total $72 billion and counting). If the end was a true democracy it might be worth it but since the outcome is likely an radical Islamic nation or just different tribes it has not been worth it. I think those on the left after the election of a Perry or Romney or worse will see this as the one big mistake since it derailed any chance of a sufficient recovery to re-elect Obama. Yes, McCain would have also done it but maybe if he failed the outcome would have been a moderate democrat being elected. Moving from ideologue to an another is killing this country. Of course, the only thing worse is a total tool like Romney. I am not looking forward to 2012.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2011-08-23 12:10:29

A classic example of the right and the left hurting America is in the natural gas vehicle arena. The left has pushed for electric cars such as the Volt and they sell a few hundred a month and will never impact the price of gasoline. Meanwhile natural gas vehicles could be a major player in this country like they are in other places in the world, ironically including Iran. Private capital is already moving in this direction. Government could help break the log jam of two few NG vehicles to justify fueling stations by either subsidising the fueling stations or the vehicles. But the left hates them because they still use fossil fuels and the right as the story below demonstrates just cannot see a role for government. We will still probably moved to them since the economics are compelling but it will take decades longer than necessary due to idelogues unwilling to use government for what it does best support basic research, remove bottlenecks and then get out of the way.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-12/pickens-losing-to-koch-in-billionaires-fight-over-natural-gas-subsidies.html

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2011-08-23 12:28:11

Two=too

 
Comment by Steve J
2011-08-23 13:17:07

It’s too early to declare “Mission Accomplished” in Libya just yet.

What if the “wrong” people are elected to run the country??

 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-23 14:57:14

Nobel monie$
Bin Laden
NATO
Qaddafi

$hrub speak: “heheheeheeeheee”


Libya erupts as Qaddafi’s compound falls to rebels
:
Francois Mori/AP

What no kudo’s for the Kenyan non-Hawaiian? :-)

The fall of Tripoli is a foreign policy triumph for which President lil’ Opie won’t hold a ticker-tape parade: no flight suit, no chest-thumping, no “Mission Accomplished” banner.

POLITICO / Libya a victory for ‘leading from behind’?

“This is one more piece of a record that he has been building on national security, that makes a very strong case about his ability to keep the American people safe and advance our interests around the world.”

National Security Council official Ben Rhodes

 
Comment by oxide
2011-08-23 15:52:59

We had our discussion on natural gas cars.

The billion dollars was the cost of the US involvement in Libya. Do you really think the rebels in Libya waited until Obama was President and then rose up just to hike the price of oil and cost us $400M today? 42 years of Qadaffi had nothing to do with it? Would the rebels have stayed quiet if McCain had been elected?

 
 
 
Comment by Left Ohio
2011-08-23 08:17:21

It’s not Obama’s policies that are driving up the national debt, it’s his vacations apparently. It must be going up $10,000,000,000 for every round of golf, and at least $25,000,000,000 for every ice cream cone.

Swallow all liquids in your mouth before reading any further.

I try to before reading any sensationalist, Drudge-linked articles that serve only to fuel the apoplectic indignation of the slack-jawed yokel teabaggers capable only of primitive, limbic, reptilian responses to external stimuli.

 
Comment by drumminj
2011-08-23 09:10:17

I harbor no delusions that it would have been any different had McCain won.

However it would have been vastly different had Ron Paul won.

Comment by oxide
2011-08-23 10:09:46

Grandma would have died in the street — or, if she were lucky, live in immense pain in daughter’s spare bedroom — under Ron Paul.

Vastly different is right.

You’re not going to be young forever, drummin.

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Comment by Bill in Carolina
2011-08-23 12:53:07

With boomers trying every which way to live forever, or at least for a very long time, my prediction is that to keep from going broke medicare will eventually cover just two kinds of treatment: preventive and palliative.

 
 
 
Comment by Pete
2011-08-23 15:29:34

“And the prospect of Perry or Bachmann gives me such Heebie Jeebies that I would probably hold my nose and vote for Obama next year.”

Cue Sammy S, engage.

 
 
Comment by drumminj
2011-08-23 09:08:47

It’s the most rapid increase in the debt under any U.S. president.

Yet it’s congress that draws up the budget. Yes, the pres can veto it, and influences it, but in the end this is Congress’s fault.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2011-08-23 12:18:33

So the last two years of the Bush Adminstration were the democrats’ fault since they controlled both houses and they still have more than 50% blame now since they have one house and the presidency?

Comment by drumminj
2011-08-23 14:30:12

So the last two years of the Bush Adminstration were the democrats’ fault

I would argue yes. I’m hoping you’ve not gotten the impression I’m defending the democrats in any way, shape or form.

I’m simply raising the point that it is Congress, not the President, that draws up the budget and controls the purse strings. People want to blame the pres for everything, when we do in fact have 3 branches of government.

Honestly, they all suck at the moment.

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Comment by Stpn2me
2011-08-23 06:10:53

Why is the stock market going up? The country is in recession. Obama is on Vacation. The housing market is in the tank and unemployment is ramphant. What is going on? The market should be tanking everyday.

This is why I am not in the market….

Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2011-08-23 07:01:06

Hope that Bernanke will put some magic bullet in the monetary policy gun.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-08-23 07:05:35

I hear you. I think that there is a belief out there by investors that the multinationals can survive without a robust American Middle Class. Notice what does make the stock market tank: foreign events. If Spain or Italy do a Greece (and they will) the market will tank.

 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-23 07:06:33

What is going on? ;-)

Really, who would be fooli$h enough to “inve$t” in “America-the-knot-$o-Great” [AA+]!, who?

 
Comment by michael
2011-08-23 07:18:50

the dollar is weakening…increasing the bottom line of large international companies.

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-23 07:27:24

increasing the bottom line of large international companies.

…especially the one’$ that lack ca$h

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 07:47:01

It’s also hard to distinguish between stock price increases that reflect renewed optimism for recovery from those which merely reflect the same fundamental value denominated in an ever-weaker currency.

Comment by michael
2011-08-23 10:11:25

check out charles hugh smith’s latest essay and charts…there is no renewed optimism for recovery.

the yield on the 10 year treasury is my measure of optimism.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 07:28:02

1) Ben Bernanke’s upcoming speech has the Wall Street cargo cult salivating with hope that the Bernanke put is alive and well, despite greatly exaggerated rumors of its demise.

2) The rumor is that he won’t announce QE3, but might announce The Bernanke Twist.

Can anyone explain to me the practical difference (if any) between QE3 and The Twist, or is it a merely a matter of political semantics, to avoid further accusations of treason?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 07:49:20

“This is why I am not in the market….”

You might want to review what happened in the 1970-1979 period; it’s not exactly like now, but there are similarities.

1) The stock market lost 50% or so of its nominal value between 1973-1975 (sorry if my dates are imprecise…).

2) Inflation took off like a bat out of hell from 1975-1979, making those who were holding on to lots of dollars sorry they did so.

Gold has already had its run as an inflation hedge; where are people supposed to turn now?

Comment by drumminj
2011-08-23 09:13:15

Gold has already had its run as an inflation hedge

says who? Why would gold not continue to rise should inflation heat up?

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 09:29:39

1) Everyone knows that gold is the best investment.
2) Prices are in the parabolic blowout phase of bubbledumb.
3) Shoeshine boy moments are regularly reported in the MSM (e.g. 20-year olds advertising gold investing opportunities on Facebook)

Move along, folks, no bubble here…

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Comment by FluffyCat
2011-08-23 15:57:16

Well, if the price keeps going up like it did in the last month, we’ll have $3500+/oz gold by the end of the year!! And $1,000,000/oz in a few years.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 09:30:44

More likely outcome than gold continuing to rise:

Inflation heats up, while gold stays more-or-less flat…

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Comment by drumminj
2011-08-23 09:38:30

More likely outcome than gold continuing to rise:

and your justification for believing this is…? On what do you base your probabilities?

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-23 14:02:10

Take a look at what happened with gold in the 70’s and into the 80’s.

If that timeframe is anything to go by, gold appears to be more of a measure of fear of inflation rather than actual increases in price levels. As inflation decreased, gold fell in value, even as price levels stayed the same (or simply rose at a slightly slower pace).

Other things don’t move as violently as gold (up or down), but are a better long-term hedge against creeping (or not so creeping) inflation. The obvious choice is real estate (rent producing, commercial property), but other businesses where there is significant capital investment needed would be a candidate. As inflation makes it more expensive for competitors to enter the market, the existing businesses (who have already invested in the capital) can either a) keep prices low and maintain/increase market dominance, or b) raise prices and still be very competitive, as it would cost too much for competitors to enter the market. For a profit seeking business, it is no surprise that most businesses will choose path “b”.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 17:16:49

“On what do you base your probabilities?”

A well-educated hunch. This is also how I figured out the dot com stocks were going to crash, before they did, and the housing bubble was going to pop, before it did.

Hunches are underrated as a forecasting tool, in my opinion.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 21:10:04

“Take a look at what happened with gold in the 70’s and into the 80’s.”

Yes, do that, but then contemplate how many other smart people are doing the same thing. The Fed’s inflation in the late-1970s may have caught many by surprise, leading to a big runup in gold prices in response. This time around, gold has already been on a tear for a decade, with very little inflation to show for it. The gold market is out ahead of inflation this time around, and hence when inflation actually shows up, gold is not likely to have a big ’surprise’ runup in response.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-23 21:51:59

Indeed, but moreover, what I was referring to more was that over long periods of time, the price of gold doesn’t reflect overall price levels, but expectations of the direction and magnitude of what the inflation rate is going to be. Recently (within the past few years), it has even become unhinged from that, and is now a trading item for speculators and a safety play. When people expect the gold run has come to an end, it will crash.

Even Jim Grant is dialing back his love for the yellow metal these days…that should say something.

Gold went from $590/oz in 1980 to $513/oz in 2005…if you believe the CPI numbers (and I think they are understated), something that cost $590 in 1980 on average would have cost $1,398 in 2005.

I know I’m preaching to the choir, because you and I see gold in the same light, but if one wants a hedge against higher price levels, one should find something else to own than gold.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Al
2011-08-23 08:03:00

You’re looking at fundamentals, but many of the players in the markets are not. If a stock drops by 10%, it must be cheap. Or maybe the chart is forming some obscure pattern that means buy. Or they have faith in Cramer. Whatever. Expect a saw tooth pattern on the way down as fundamentals slowly win out.

Comment by oxide
2011-08-23 10:12:24

I’m not sure what to think. Isn’t this why crashes happen in late fall? The PTB/PPT barely hold it together until about October and then it all breaks loose.

I have some cash on the sidelines, but a lot more in equities. I both win and lose no matter what happens.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-23 21:10:54

Fundamentals of the economy? Or fundamentals of each individual company?

What I’m seeing is generally indiscriminate buying and indiscriminate selling, based on technical reads and expectation of where people feel the market is going to go based on the next headline. Seemingly few days over the past few weeks are “stock picking” days, where there are winners and losers.

High frequency traders are controlling the market. If you are in, you mustn’t have a weak stomach. If you are out, you have an interesting show to watch.

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2011-08-23 12:14:59

Zimbabwe was the best performing market in nominal terms for about a decade. Printing money will not create prosperity but it sure can make things go up in price. Whether it be the stockmarket or as earlier posts showed about new home prices, even houses. However, price those houses or stocks in gold and you have a better idea what is really going on.

Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-23 21:21:01

I think it is probably more fitting to price your houses or stocks in Big Macs, gallons of milk, barrels of oil, bushels of cotton, kilowatts of energy, etc. than gold.

At least those others have far more correlation with overall price levels than gold. Unless of course, you believe that prices have gone up at a rate of 54% in the past year ($1,226.90 to $1,889.70), and nominal prices have gone up seven fold in the past 10 years ($271.05 to $1,889.70).

I think we all believe inflation has been understated by the PTB over the past many, many years, but gold, if it ever was an indicator of price level, became unhinged from that reality and became a “safety” and speculative bet hundreds of dollars per ounce ago.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-23 06:21:37

Well, there are nuances to America, like to lead the Nation one is required to be a natural citizen [with a birth-certificate & live-birth witness who are not suffering from Alzheimer or pee-party-swift-boat funding$], talk about “old school thinking”! But to give it a Global fico $core and create a cause & effect financial t$unami, one just needs only to be a publi$hing CorpInc’$ CEO progno$ticator with a $uspect winning bet$ record. ;-)

“The company said only that $harma was eager to pur$ue other opportunitie$.”

heheeeheeeheehaahaaahaaheeehaahaaa… (Hwy50™)

Head of rating agency $&P stepping down
AP News / On Monday August 22, 2011

“McGraw-Hill’s statement did not mention of the Aug. 5 downgrade that sent shock waves through global financial markets and was sharply criticized by the Obama administration, which said the agency’s analysis was fundamentally flawed. Other major rating agencies have maintained their AAA ratings on the U.S.

It also did not refer to recent reports that the Justice Department was investigating whether S&P improperly rated dozens of mortgage securities in the years leading up to the financial crisis in 2008. Those reports sent McGraw-Hill’s shares tumbling last week.”

$&P’s “I’m the AAA+ Decider!” ;-)

[Deven Sharma (born 1956, Jharkhand, India) is an executive, and the president of Standard & Poor's, a Division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, providing independent credit ratings, indices, risk evaluation, and investment research.

Dr. Deven Sharma was born in the mining town of Dhanbad in Bihar (now a part of Jharkhand), India. His father R. N. Sharma was chairman of Bharat Coking Coal Ltd.]

Even Donald Trump says $&P is doing this for publicity.

“I can just see these guys sitting in their little office on Wall Street, or wherever they are, saying, ‘We’re going to take down the United States!’” he told Fox News. “Because they want the publicity, because they want to restore their reputation. They love it.”

Standard & Poor’s Seen Surrendering to Tea Party at U.S. Taxpayer Expense

Zeke Faux, On Monday August 8, 2011

‘Always Wrong’:

S&P kept an A- rating on Iceland until October 6, 2008, when the country’s government was forced to guarantee all domestic bank deposits after its currency plunged. The company reaffirmed its AAA rating for Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s financial products unit on Sept. 12, 2008, three days before the bank failed. It downgraded Bear Stearns Cos. to BBB on March 14, 2008, two days before JPMorgan agreed to buy the failing securities firm.

$tandard & make’emPoor, = “True$editionist$$erialEnabler$™”

“Boycott ‘em!” (& their Fee$ible Opinionbaiter$ Progno$tication$) ;-)

Comment by butters
2011-08-23 10:40:44

We deserve AAA+, damn it! Facts be damned!

USA #1! USA #1! USA! USA! USA!

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-23 11:37:44

We deserve AAA+

“Deserves got nuthin’ to do with it!” …William Muny [Clint Eastwood / Unforgiven]

We earned it! :-)

 
 
 
Comment by Jess from upstate SC
2011-08-23 06:30:14

One thing about Sir Richard Branson . The rich mogul knows how to get rid of property. What was he & his family doing in the path of a hurricane , anways? Yeah , I am suspicious . My view may be tainted because I’m green with envy towards Rich mongrels like that . The only island I’ll ever have a chance of owning a part of is if I buy a cemetery plot on the water or whatever.

 
Comment by 2banana
2011-08-23 07:01:28

Picked up by the international press

—————–

Housing prices dirt cheap: Three-bedroom homes that can be yours for as little as $5,000
DailyMail.UK | 23rd August 2011 | Thomas Durante

For a prospective homebuyer, $5,000 may not buy much, but in one U.S. city, a dream home can be yours for just that amount.

Hundreds of homes in Baltimore, Maryland, are currently listed between $5,000 and $10,000, according to HomeDatabase.com.

And these homes are not meagre dwellings - some offer as many as three bedrooms and multiple bathrooms.

The Baltimore Sun reported that one of every 10 homes sold in the first half of 2011 are selling in the $10,000 range while two of every 10 are going for under $20,000.

Despite the prices, Baltimore and its suburbs are experiencing plummeting sales since the first-time homebuyer tax credit expired last summer.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2011-08-23 08:00:18

Riding through Baltimore last December, the deplorable state of the inner city rowhouses was something I have not seen in quite some time. It was as bad as bad could get - so $5,000 strikes me as overpriced.

While there are many cities in bad shape today, for the most part they looked better in the 90s and early 2000s than they did in the 70s. The older inner sections we rode past in Baltimore looked as if they side stepped the past two decades, a real throwback.

I hope any enterprising Euros don’t buy sight unseen, but they probably will.

Comment by Al
2011-08-23 08:06:14

“The Baltimore Sun reported that one of every 10 homes sold in the first half of 2011 are selling in the $10,000 range while two of every 10 are going for under $20,000.”

It’s not until the houses get over $20,000 that you start getting ammenities like bars on the windows and blood resistant flooring.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2011-08-23 09:20:46

My regret is I’m too slow with a camera, the pictures of the parts of Baltimore we traversed would have been the subject of much comment.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-23 10:24:47

A friend did a similar photo essay on Detroit.

 
 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-23 09:06:09

Riding through Baltimore last December, the deplorable state of the inner city rowhouses was something I have not seen in quite some time. It was as bad as bad could get - so $5,000 strikes me as overpriced.

In late 2009, before my father’s health really took a dive, we took an Amtrak train to Washington, DC from Wilmington, DE.

The ride through Baltimore was striking, to say the least. Miles and miles of abandoned rowhouses. They were well-built brick structures at one time, but that was quite a while back. In late 2009, they looked like the remnants of a once-proud civilization.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-23 21:22:28

Heard a story on NPR where a woman in Baltimore said that the only time she left her home was to go to her part-time job at a grocery store. Otherwise, she was afraid to step outside.

 
 
Comment by Left Ohio
2011-08-23 08:23:30

This is great news, I’ve always wanted to live on the set of The Wire.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2011-08-23 16:00:55

If you do a search on HomesDatabase, in zipcode 21201, a decent representation of Baltimore, you’ll see houses from 500K to 22K. It was towards the north of this zip code that I went to see Elizabeth Warren speak.

But then, you should also look at the murder map of Baltimore:

http://essentials.baltimoresun.com/micro_sun/homicides/ (select your criteria from the drop-down boxes at the top - I just selected all of 2011 and clicked search).

An even though this is a relatively low murder area (for Baltimore), you’ll see a wide - inexplicable IMHO - range of prices.

I look at those prices and I realize someone is going to pick up the tab. I wish somehow the damage could be contained only between lender and borrower. But those well-connected, here or in a banana republic, are the ones who get paid no matter what.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 07:01:43

The New Yorker
The Talk of the Town

Market Watch
Happy Birthday, Greenbacks
by Nick Paumgarten August 29, 2011

Last Monday was the fortieth birthday of the United States dollar as a fiat currency—that is, a currency backed not by a precious metal, or something solid like it, but by the promissory authority of a government. On August 15, 1971, President Nixon, after a secret meeting at Camp David with his economic advisers, closed the gold window and effectively ended the gold standard. Henceforth, the Federal Reserve would no longer exchange other central banks’ dollars, or anyone’s, for gold at a fixed price. Instead, it could print as much money as it felt it needed to.

Forty, as anyone who has turned it can attest, is, at best, an occasion for ambivalence and, at worst, a bracing peek over the top of the hill. For its four-decade birthday, last week, Paper Dollar, Jr., was confettied with grim statistics and hooted anew by goldbugs and critics of the Fed. The slide show of P.D., Jr.,’s life, to be sure, features some ugly bits—inflation, recession, rising unemployment, harmful speculations, ballooning debt. The regime of which the dollar is the centerpiece, in its role as the world’s reserve currency, is now teetering. It is a shadow of itself. Stooped and arthritic, it smells of mothballs and can no longer afford its beloved Swiss chocolates. It keeps forgetting our names and getting lost on the way home. Still, the average life expectancy for a fiat currency is twenty-seven years; so, by that measure, the greenback has had a good run. Speech! Speech!

Read more http://www.newyorker.com/talk/2011/08/29/110829ta_talk_paumgarten#ixzz1VrMJU5J0

 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 07:12:07

I seriously hope Barry wins in a landslide next year his administration has made it so simple to see our future. Building wealth and capital preservation is not difficult once you know (for sure) the direction your nation is headed. I said it before and I ‘ll say it again, Obama will end up making the previous white house stooge G.Bush look like Hetty Green.

So next year please vote early and vote often! My pocket book thanks you in advance.

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-23 07:26:07

My pocket book thanks you in advance.

Is this yet another excuse you wish to use for claiming to have never spent more than $15.00 for xmas gifts? ;-)

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-23 09:08:26

Hmmm, a President who wins a landslide victory in a not-so-great economy.

I’m thinking Ronald Reagan 1984 and Richard Nixon 1972. Recall that both guys had scandal-plagued second terms. And the latter had to resign.

 
Comment by darrell_in_phoenix
2011-08-23 11:53:24

The only outcome that would be worse for the nation than an Obama 2nd term is if one of the top Republican contenders wins instead.

 
Comment by Muggy
2011-08-23 17:13:08

I hope one of the Koch Bros. runs! Freedom!

Yay!

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 07:17:48

Teacher pension fund joins California auditor’s risk list
Associated Press

SACRAMENTO — The state auditor’s office on Thursday added teacher pensions to the list of high-risk issues facing California government.

The report by State Auditor Elaine Howle added the nation’s largest teacher pension fund because it can’t meet the costs of retirement benefits beyond the next 30 years. The pension funding problem was added to a list of risks that includes California’s chronic budget deficit, unfunded retiree health costs and prison crowding.

It’s a well-known problem. The California State Teachers’ Retirement System reported in March that it had 71 percent of the assets needed to cover retirement costs for its 852,000 members and family members. The estimated shortfall is $56 billion.

School districts and educators pay a percentage of each employee’s salary into the pension fund to pay for benefits, but the percentage has not changed for decades. As recently as 2001, the fund had 98 percent of the assets it needed, but benefit changes and economic slumps that hurt asset values have reduced that number.

Both the pension board and Gov. Jerry Brown have called for funding changes to shore up long-term finances at CalSTRS. The board of the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, which covers state and local government workers, can change contribution amounts on its own, but changes to CalSTRS funding require action by the state Legislature.

The report underscores what CalSTRS officials
have been saying for years, said Ricardo Duran, a spokesman for the fund.

“The issues are long-range ones, but the longer it takes to develop a plan, the more costly will be the solution,” Duran said in an email.

 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 07:33:33

Failures Projected as Mortgage Insurers Struggle
by guest editor Gavin Magor August 22, 2011- Weiss Research

Mortgage insurers are in big trouble. Losses account for 154 percent of premiums earned. And they totaled a jaw-dropping $2.4 billion in 2010, thus threatening to destroy the mortgage insurance business, which is dominated by six groups.

The insurers are facing serious threats to their very existence as the financial crisis continues. So is it inevitable that they’ll fail? Certainly their struggle is a factor slowing the housing market’s recovery.

Weiss Ratings recently examined the 34 largest mortgage insurers’ performance through the first quarter of 2011. Subsidiaries of MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG), Radian Group (RDN), Genworth Financial (GNW), PMI Group (PMI), American International Group (AIG) and Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) wrote 80 percent of the $4.4 billion of premiums in 2010.

These same companies also recorded $1.7 billion or 71 percent of the combined $2.4 billion losses. United Guaranty Residential Insurance Co. (an AIG subsidiary) is the only large insurer that had a profit during 2010 and for the first quarter of 2011. And Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corp (MGIC) recorded a profit in 2010.

But unlike the pabulum and propaganda you’re getting from Washington and Wall Street these days, it’s the gospel truth. And some may even say that it’s what you need to see — right now — to protect yourself and your finances from the economic hurricane that’s about to strike our shores.

The title is America’s Financial Doomsday: Protect Yourself and Profit — click here to watch it now.

With losses of $618 million in the first quarter of 2011 and no sign of significant improvement in the economy for the remainder of the year, it appears that the $2.4 billion in losses mortgage insurers suffered will be matched in 2011.

These losses were not on the back of increasing premiums. In fact, it was exactly the opposite!

With $3.5 billion out of the $4.4 billion of premiums written by the largest insurers, only Radian Guaranty Inc, saw a rise in premiums, increasing 3.5 percent. The remainder of the companies had drops of between 6.4 percent and 21.6 percent.

So why does this matter?

Well, the losses and lower premiums are additional evidence that the housing crisis is nowhere near an end. In fact, without mortgage insurer guarantees, lenders might not extend loans to low down-payment borrowers at prevailing interest rates. And with government guaranteed FHA loans scarcer than ever, there may be nowhere for these borrowers to turn.

The bottom line: If insurance is not available at the lower end of the housing ladder, sales of existing homes face continued weakening.

Of the thirty four mortgage insurers reviewed in the Weiss Ratings’ study, only 6 (18 percent) were rated as having strong financials with 19 (56 percent) rated as weak, including all of the largest.

And from an investing perspective, a look at Weiss Watchdog, shows PMI rated D-, MTG rated D, and GNW rated C-. Not too enticing unless you can find signs that insurers are actively engaged to turn the tide.

Losses Mounting …
Cash Dwindling

With insufficient capital to meet state regulator requirements, PMI Mortgage insurance Co. may be unable to write any new policies. The company recently set up a new insurer specifically to write new business, but his company hasn’t written many policies so far. And according to the Associated Press, PMI’s CFO, Donald Lofe, indicated that the group may consider bankruptcy, although it has no immediate plans to file.

Capital and surplus — the dollars that remain after insurers subtract liabilities from assets — has been dropping for the 34 companies we examined, from $7.7 billion as of December 2010 to $7.2 billion as of March 31, 2011. Losses account for the vast majority of the $494 million (7.4 percent) drop in capital. On an annualized basis this would result in a further $1.5 billion or 21 percent drop in capital to around $5.7 billion.

For some insurers, the key to writing new business is continued waivers from the state regulators over the maximum 25 percent risk-to-capital ratio required. Both PMI and Old Republic exceeded this level during the second quarter of 2011.

The rate of losses is unsustainable. The only question is whether some insurers will stop writing business before they run out of capital. And even then their survival is on a knife edge.

With parent company stock prices dropping an average of 64 percent this year as of Thursday’s close and a price-to-book value of 35 percent or less for each of these stocks — Old Republic being the exception at 62 percent — it appears the markets are wise to be concerned.

Investors beware … speculators may see opportunities.

Best wishes,

Gavin Magor

Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-23 09:09:41

The rate of losses is unsustainable. The only question is whether some insurers will stop writing business before they run out of capital. And even then their survival is on a knife edge.

Sounds like a reply of the CDS market woes of a few years ago.

 
Comment by jeff saturday
2011-08-23 09:10:42

Here`s the short version.

Failures Projected as Mortgage Insurers Struggle

Mortgage insurers are in big trouble.

The insurers are facing serious threats to their very existence as the financial crisis continues.

The title is America’s Financial Doomsday:

The rate of losses is unsustainable.

Best wishes,

Gavin Magor

 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-23 09:31:25

But, but, but,…eyes thought “they” only had to pay$$$$$$ when the Bankers take title? :-)

Perspective on Rejected Title Insurance Claims:
by Rob Chrisman

Monday the commentary discussed claims with title companies. “I just wanted to comment on the subject of claims with the title companies. I can tell you I had a personal claim against a national title company that missed some back taxes owed by the previous owner on a short sale. The county contacted me and said I was responsible for these back taxes, but that it was the title company’s fault and I should contact it. Even though it was a clear case of the company being at fault the claim was denied. I had to eventually hire an attorney and threaten a lawsuit before getting them to settle. It took a lot of time and resources to get it to admit fault even though I had clear documentation from the county etc. I just thought I would share as this seems to back up what you are hearing.”

One reader wrote, “As far as I can tell, from over 20 years of experience in this business, rejection of virtually all title claims by the insurer has been standard operating procedure. This is not a new phenomenon. In fact, a similarly jaded former Chairman of a small Midwestern thrift (long since deceased) once was heard to say that title insurance is “insuring pig iron underwater…with a rust exclusion”. The economics of title insurance are vastly different from ordinary insurance with upwards of 80% of all premiums being paid to title agents merely for delivering the business. Only about 5% of all premium income is allocated to paying losses (the rest is administrative expense-such as lawyers to fight claims). The economics of casualty insurance, on the other hand, are reversed. There is rarely accountability between the purchaser of title insurance and the person making a claim (consider in many states the seller buys the insurance), but it’s the buyer (or lender) who will have to pursue the claim. As a result, there is no need to have a good claims paying history since the buyers of their insurance never have to deal with a claim denial. In fact, if you think about it, if the title company does a proper search and knows the applicable law, the risk of loss should be zero. It is not as if a random occurrence like a tornado can hit your title and cause it to change. Title insurers are really just insuring their own negligence (and malfeasance) on the front end. Title losses were covered up by rising real estate values generally during the first half of the 2000’s. Now, mortgage holders are seeking to hold title insurers liable for title losses whenever possible, many of which are really the result of fraud. Title claim volume has no doubt increased, so title insurers are just continuing their business model (of not paying claims easily) in more visible fashion.”

From the comments section:
Diane Cipa,
Yes, Frank. We sure are beyond the blame game and now this is a time of healing for the business of real estate, mortgage banking, and title insurance. We live and work in a cycle of boom and bust. During the bust the professionals who have made a career of the work, pick up the pieces and restore good practices. We have good people all over, thankful to be working and thankful that opportunists have moved out for now. ;) It is interesting that loan officers do not attend closings. Though I understand because I sure didn’t attend closings when I was in the biz. I think there’s a general feeling that the ball is in someone else’s court and hope that it’s in good hands. When I made the move into title insurance two decades ago I was shocked. Just as mortgage bankers don’t understand title insurance, title insurers are pretty clueless about mortgage banking. Parallel worlds serving the same consumers without really understanding each other. It’s funny in a way. Loan officers introduce consumers to title insurance through the GFE and title officers wrap up and explain all the details of the mortgage at closings. Kinda goofy but that’s how we do it.

Comment by easthawaii
2011-08-23 15:05:02

Could you please just use normal type. Or am I just getting old and grumpy.

 
 
 
Comment by jeff saturday
2011-08-23 08:26:01

Delinquent loans on the rise again, a grim sign for housing

August 22, 2011 | 7:01 am

It’s an ominous sign for housing. The percentage of homeowners who have missed at least one mortgage payment has risen for the second straight quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. says.

Officials at the trade group expressed concern Monday that the sluggish economy may be creating another group of distressed borrowers.

“It is clear that the downward trend we saw through most of 2010 has stopped,” the Mortgage Bankers Assn.’s chief economist, Jay Brinkmann, said in a news release.

The second-quarter delinquency rate for loans on one- to four-unit residential properties increased to 8.44% of all U.S. mortgages as of June 30, up from 8.32% on March 31 and 8.25% on Dec 31.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/08/soured-home-loans-down-.html - -

On The Road Again lyrics
Songwriters: Nelson, Willie;

One, two
One, two, three, four

On the rise again
Delinquent loans are on the rise again
They`re not payin`like they never did before
Delinquent loans are on the rise again

On the rise again
Underwater like they`ve never been
Ain`t made payments since I don`t know when
And I`m so glad they`re on the rise again

On the rise again
Should have listned to some guy named Ben
They`ll lose their house but they just don`t know when
Delinquent loans are on the rise again

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-23 09:10:40

Awesome!

What’s past is prologue: :-)

Antomo:
. . . Who’s the next heir of Naples?

Sebastian:
Claribel.

Antonio:
She that is Queen of Tunis; she that dwells
Ten leagues beyond man’s life; she that from Naples
Can have no note, unless the sun were post—
The Man i’ th’ Moon’s too slow—till new-born chins
Be rough and razorable; she that from whom
We all were sea-swallow’d, though some cast again
(And by that destiny) to perform an act
Whereof what’s past is prologue; what to come,
In yours and my discharge.

The Tempest Act 2, scene 1, 245–254

 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-23 09:37:00

When you gonna take that $hit on the road Jethro? I’ll play rhythm for you…. What shall we call ourselves??

Jethro’s Bar Chord Band?

Jethro and His Cast of HBB Idiots? lmao

Homer And Jethro Part II?

 
 
Comment by cactus
2011-08-23 08:30:23

I think the markets are up this am betting bernake will do somthing to juice the economy, and I bet the market will tank on ben’s accounment because so far all the FED stimulas is very temporary.

Ben bernake should say somthing today from jackson Hole Wyoming

hid did the same thing last year QE2

Comment by cactus
2011-08-23 08:31:36

he did

 
Comment by butters
2011-08-23 10:35:59

juice the economy.

No, more like juice the banksters’ pockets.

 
 
Comment by jeff saturday
2011-08-23 08:51:13

To pay, or not to pay, that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous Deadbeats,
Or to take arms against a sea of Robo signers
And by opposing end them. To die—to sleep,
To pay your mortgage no more; and by a sleep to say we have not made a payment in three long years
The heart-ache and the thousand natural shocks
That flesh is heir to: ’tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wish’d. To die, to sleep; To live rent free
To sleep, perchance to dream—ay, there’s the rub:
A free house For in that free house what dreams may come, When we have shuffled off this mortal coil, This underwater mortgage
Must give us pause—there’s the respect, I am a victim
That makes calamity of so long life and a Liar Loan

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-08-23 09:29:47

LOVE this, jeff! Can I borrow it with attribution?

Comment by jeff saturday
2011-08-23 09:52:05

“LOVE this, jeff! Can I borrow it with attribution?”

That`s a cut and paste Hamlet Bubble job. I`m just praying Willie Nelson doesn`t come after me for using his On The Road Again lyrics to help him pay the IRS.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-08-23 12:07:26

No worries—the protection for satire is pretty broad from what I understand. :-)

BTW, when trying to figure out whether your version was original to you, I ran across another nice variant on zerohedge by williambanzai7:

To default, or not to default: that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler at this time to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous financial misfortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of rising debts,
And by opposing end them? To die: to sleep;
No more; and by a sleep to say we end
The heart-ache and the thousand market cuts,
That insolvent flesh is heir to, ’tis a debentured recomposition
Devoutly to be wish’d. To die, to sleep;
To sleep: perchance to dream: ay, there’s the hubub;
For in that sleep of fiscal death what disastrous dreams may come
When we have lanced off the bankrupt boil,
Must give us pause: there’s the disrespect
That makes calamity of yields to maturity,
For who would bear the whips and scorns of fiat debasement,
The creditor’s wrong, the borrowing idiot’s contumely,
The pangs of despised austerity, the law of gravity’s delay,
The insolence of office and the spurns
That impatient murmurs of Wall Street snakes,
When he himself might his quietus make
With a debt addicts bodkin? who would loan fardels bear,
To grunt and sweat under a weary life of indentured serfdom,
But that the dread of something after forcible redemption,
The undiscover’d wasteland from whose bourn
No political hack returns, puzzles the will
And makes them rather bear those monetary ills we have
Than fly to others that they know not of?
Thus ignorance does make cowards of them all;
And thus the native hue of fiscal resolution
Is sicklied o’er with the pale cast of votes bought,
And swindling enterprises of great Ponzinomic moment
With this regard their ratings turn awry,
And lose the name of action. - Vote you now!
The debt ceiling hysteria! Banksta pimps, be in thy orfices
Be all our financial sins remember’d.

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Comment by jeff saturday
2011-08-23 12:48:11

I like yours much better.

 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-23 13:33:09

Looks like a good topic for next weekend……

“Fractured Recession Poetry”

Everybody has three days to work on their submissions.

All we need to do is have a vote on the best one, and come up with an appropriate prize.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2011-08-23 09:15:30

When you think about it ,who is protected the most by Defense Dollars .

In theory whoever has a lot to lose is the greatest beneficiary of
Defense dollars .

If a person doesn’t have a car ,do they really want to pay insurance for a car they don’t have .

If you do a benefit analysis to determine the tax structures ,that might make more sense .

Right ,right ,Defense dollars protect freedom and the American way but to the degree that you have something to protect is the degree that Defense benefits the receivers .

If a person has a 100 dollar painting do they have less to lose than a
person who has a 1 million dollar painting they don’t want taken .

What is the benefit analysis in mass education costs ,or keeping crime off the streets for a functional commerial system .

I’m not saying a Defense isn’t necessary ,our freedom notions would be at stake ,I’m just saying who are the biggest beneficiaries of Defense dollars ,or tax dollars directed somewhere .

Why is it that the well placed preach the right to amass wealth ,when the tax dollars spent actually reduce their cost of doing business .

If taxes spent create more opportunity for the amassing of wealth ,than accordingly a opportunity cost tax is in order .

The rich use to pay more until they hoodwinked everyone into the concept that it wasn’t fair and they compared themselves with the man/women on the street . it really was a swiss cheese arguement
that didn’t include a benefit analysis of overall tax dollars .

 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-23 09:26:45

God damn the Housing Crime Syndicate.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 09:27:52

Inflation fears on top of stagflation have created plenty of incentive for metal thievery.

Thieves Target San Diego’s Historic Plaques
By Marissa Cabrera
August 23, 2011

From the Mission Hills neighborhood to Chula Vista, more than a dozen bronze plaques have gone missing.

San Diego Police Detective Mike Brenner is investigating 14 cases of bronze plaque thefts. He says there may be as many as 20 cases countywide.

Brenner says the crime spree started this summer in the Burlingame area between North Park and South Park. Most of the cases involve historic homes.

“The thing they are probably doing is trying to recycle them. I think bronze is about two-dollars a pound, so they’re not getting a lot. I think some of these signs go for five to six hundred dollars to manufacture,” he said.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-23 10:07:38

See, the poor and unemployed aren’t such deadbeats after all.

There’s no legit employment available, so, instead of sitting around the cardboard apartment they have become entrepeneurs. On night shift, no less. And bronze is heavy……

And, following the lead of our business elites, they have cost-shifted the cost of raw materials (in this case, bronze) onto someone else.

True, the economic impact on their raw material supplies is a lot higher than the profit generated. But that’s their problem. If they were really worried about it, they’d pay someone to guard their stuff better.

People are still surprised that when they do “A”, an utterly predictable “B” happens.

 
Comment by measton
2011-08-23 17:42:52

Now you will never hear of this when waying the cost of a jobs program vs no jobs program, or bailouts for the banks and ZIRP.

 
 
Comment by jeff saturday
2011-08-23 09:39:17

One more time, come on everybody sing along.

Take me out to the ballgame
Take me out to the crowd
Wear body armor and watch your back
I don`t know if you`ll ever come back
Cause they shoot, shoot shoot for the home team
If they don`t win you`re to blame
Cause it`s one - two - three - shots lookout
At the old ball game

FOX SPORTS Six people shot at summer league game

NewsCore Aug 23, 2011 3:22 AM ET

Six people were wounded, one critically, when shots were fired Monday night during a basketball game at a crowded Philadelphia recreation center, WCAU-TV reported.

Police said a lone shooter approached one of the courts at the Kingsessing Recreation Center about 8:45 p.m. local time and fired 11 shots towards center court during a summer league playoff game. About 500 people were reportedly in attendance at the event.

Five men and one woman were shot, with the most seriously injured person, an unidentified man, shot once in the stomach.

The other victims — four males, aged 18, 19, 21 and 23, and a 19-year-old female — were listed as being stable, with injuries to their lower extremities, at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania.

Two police officers were among the spectators and they chased the suspect on foot, but no arrest was made, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported.

The police were able to recover a revolver that they said had been fired recently.

http://msn.foxsports.com/other/story/Six-people-shot-at-summer-league-basketball-game-in-philadelphia-082211 - -

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2011-08-23 09:39:18

The American people thought they were going to benefit by the tax breaks to the rich ,rich Corporations ,Wall Street .For some reason the American people thought they were going to benefit by buying cheap crap from China. Also the American people thought that some
contrived increase in real estate was going to be their ticket to paying debt ,or paying to maintain life style .,or get rich quick .

One thing is sure that the sheep believed the PR campaigns until they were left with bare cupboards and joblessness and declining purchasing power ,and the worse ,debt with the value of the asset being creamed and promises being threatened .

The people were suckers ,they wern’t watching the takovers and system changes that would leave them in a minus status .

The American people bear some responsibility for being dead heads
not realizing a bunch of foxes were in the hen house .

 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 09:50:09

Longtime Peoria printer closing up shop, unable to navigate sweeping changes in the trade

PEORIA —

A printer in business in Peoria since 1880 will soon close as a result of a lagging economy, changing technology and overseas competition.

The Edward Hine Co., 201 Morton St., a firm with a reputation for quality that produced high-resolution brochures and booklets for big clients like Caterpillar Inc., John Deere Co. and the University of Illinois, will sell off what’s left of its business later this week.

Hine is the latest casualty from pressures that have forced many U.S. print firms out of business. “Printing used to be the number-one business to be in. But it lost its glamor with the computer generation,” said Bruce Simpson, Hine’s sole owner since 1995 who started as a salesman for the company in 1969.

Between 1999 and 2009, 12,900 U.S. printers went out of business, according to Printing Industries of America, a Pennsylvania-based trade group.

“In Peoria, we’ve seen a lot of printers go down in recent years: companies like Smith, Logan and C&H,” he said.

A number of factors led to Hine’s closing. “A significant amount of work has gone offshore,” said Gary Wesley, Hine’s executive vice president and chief operating officer.

“If a company has lead time on a project, they can contract to have a job done in Asia, where the company buys wood pulp from Canada to make the paper at mills where there are no environmental controls. They run the job on a top-of-the-line press and ship it back in a floating bindery. When the ship arrives in a U.S. port, the order is boxed and ready to go,” he said.

Along with offshore competition, U.S. printers have seen other changes affect their business. More firms went to bidding out contracts on an annual basis rather than relying on the printer that had done their job before, said Wesley.

“As more companies adopted just-in-time inventories, you also had shorter press runs instead of storing a lot of literature in warehouses,” he said.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-08-23 11:08:56

“They run the job on a top-of-the-line press and ship it back in a floating bindery. When the ship arrives in a U.S. port, the order is boxed and ready to go,” he said.”

That’s actually rather innovative; they’re overlapping the binding phase of production with the transportation phase in order to avoid the extra delay of printing overseas.

Is this a sign of things to come—floating factories that dock to pick up raw materials, produce along the way, and then dock to deliver the finished goods?

That’s pretty scary in a way, because who is going to monitor environmentally-hazardous discharge en-route?? Talk about having no environmental standards! Yikes!

Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-23 13:54:31

Don’t know how it is with other technical positions, but all our manuals went to CDs, Internet or Flash drives several years ago.

Sure it a lot easier to swap out a CD, than it is to go thru manuals and do paper revisions every 3/6/12 months.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-23 14:25:38

What I like about digital manuals is that you can do a search for what you’re seeking. You don’t have to go leafing through page after page of a book.

That being said, what am I doing right now? Laying out a book, that’s what. It’s a coffee table book featuring some of my photos.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 10:04:52

Wall Street Rallies on Fed Speculation, Data- Reuters

The Nasdaq added more than 2% Tuesday as stronger-than-expected data from overseas sparked buying before a keenly awaited speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke this week.

Comment by Mike in Miami
2011-08-23 11:29:49

So China cooked the books more than expected. Well, that’s a reason to cheer.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 10:22:16

Dem Congresswoman Blames Black Unemployment On “Racism”

“When you look at African American males, 40% of them are unemployed, those under 30 years of age. I understand exactly the entire nation must be involved in this recovery but the black community is experiencing a great recession. That’s what we’re experiencing,” Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-FL) told MSNBC.

“And all of the growth in the past 30 years, we see it slipping away. From home ownership, the middle class; it’s slipping away from our hands. And it has a lot to do with many issues. Racism, shipping jobs overseas, access — no access to technology. You know, the digital divide is there and many of the new jobs that’s what it requires. So, we have a problem.”

Comment by rms
2011-08-23 14:16:12

Race and the New Century

“With a new century approaching, it is by no means clear that the biggest problem facing black Americans is still the problem of the color line. Indeed, that problem has already been superseded by another: self-destruction, both cultural and physical.”

http://tinyurl.com/3ofyewa

Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-23 15:57:01

One of my black neighbors called me last week. He’s a retiree and likes to get up early so he can take a long walk or go to the gym.

Well, last week, he was on his way to the bus stop when he encountered a couple of young giggly black fellows who offered him crack cocaine.

Needless to say, my neighbor turned them down. And I’ll bet his annoyance at them fueled quite the workout up at the gym.

To put it mildly, he doesn’t like to see young black men acting like fools.

 
 
Comment by Pete
2011-08-23 15:45:33

“Dem Congresswoman Blames Black Unemployment On “Racism”

Misleading headline. She didn’t pin blame on racism, she included racism as one of many factors– “And it has a lot to do with many issues. Racism, shipping jobs overseas, access — no access to technology.”

As long as racism is a component of our society, it will be a factor in the plight of various races, so what’s the problem in her putting racism on the list?

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 10:31:32

Power Play
Obama Leans Harder on Labor as His Fortunes Fall

By Chris Stirewalt

Obama Leans Harder on Labor as His Fortunes Fall
August 23, 2011| FoxNews.com

“The essential idea is that changes in the law for the first time really allow the labor movement to speak directly to workers, whether they have collective bargaining agreements or not.’’

In the past two election cycles, American labor unions have spent some $600 million helping elect and protect Democrats, most of it devoted to President Obama’s 2008 election.

But it may take an even larger commitment from labor groups to keep Obama in office. The latest Gallup poll shows Obama would be hard pressed to beat either of the GOP frontrunners, Mitt Romney or Rick Perry, or even those farther back in the pack, like Ron Paul. The cry from independents has become: Anybody but Obama.

The president is in the midst of a political crisis. While he has 15 months to stage a comeback, the weakening economy and Obama’s inability to connect with American voters on the issues that matter most have banished ideas about an easy re-election.

Unions are already gearing up for the struggle. The AFL-CIO is preparing to launch a huge new Super PAC that can use new campaign finance laws to raise unlimited donations and spend unlimited sums. The union sees this as a way not only to help keep Democrats in power but also reverse their declining membership numbers. It would be political action and organizing in one package.

Most importantly for the president, the money could be shifted quickly to different states or efforts depending on where the incumbent is in the most trouble: drop $10 million in Florida one week and then shift to Nevada the next. This would be a financial fire hose that could be quickly turned to douse the greatest threats to Obama’s re-election

Democrats are more important to Unions now than ever. Labor groups previously primarily relied on sympathetic politicians to help them with favorable rules for organizing private workplaces. But as private-sector union membership has collapsed in recent years, groups like the AFL-CIO have become increasingly dependent on government workers and their dues.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 10:51:20

Why would Operation Twist not constitute Groundhog Day, if it was already tried back in the 1960s? And what would be the practical difference between Operation Twist and QE3 as alternative policies to suppress long-term Treasury yields?

Me confused (as usual)…

Up and Down Wall Street | TUESDAY, AUGUST 23, 2011
No Groundhog Day at Jackson Hole
By RANDALL W. FORSYTH
Don’t expect Bernanke to launch QE3 at the Fed confab in the clouds.

Why do the high and mighty have to take that description literally? It seems they can only get together to discuss profound ideas to solve the great problems of the day at a posh ski resort.

In January, movers, shakers and assorted celebs ascend the Alps to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. And in the waning days of August, the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank holds its annual forum in Jackson Hole, Wyo., where economic policy wonks gather to discuss — what else? — the state of the economy.

If ideas were the real reason for these confabs, they could be in places less fabulous. But to get the powerful to schlep somewhere out of the way, that place better be good, no, great.

Nobody but economics nerds used to notice the Jackson Hole shindig much until Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke started talking about policy prescriptions. Last year, most famously, he laid the groundwork for further asset purchases by the central bank. That became the $600 billion buy of Treasury securities known as QE2, so called for the second round of quantitative easing by the Fed.

QE2 was launched officially last November to stave off the perceived threat of deflation. In actuality, the main deflation was apparent in the stock market, where the Standard & Poor’s 500 had fallen over 13%. Now, with the S&P 500 down nearly 17% from its recent peak, the markets are looking for QE3.

Hoping is more like it. And those hopes seem unlikely to be fulfilled. Not only would Bernanke likely face significant opposition to further easing of monetary policy, he has to deal with opposition to what the central bank already has done.

That’s not from Rick Perry, either. The Texas governor and Republican presidential hopeful’s bluster that any further expansionary Fed policy would be “treasonous” is just that, bluster.

Far more influential are the three dissenters on the Federal Open Market Committee, including Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, who objected to the policy-setting panel’s decision to announce its intention to hold its key policy interest rate, the federal funds rate, near zero until June 2013.

Given their objections to this announcement of the Fed’s intentions, it is difficult to see how Bernanke could announce more policy moves now to boost the flagging economy and markets.

After all, the FOMC merely stated its plans. While such an announcement is unprecedented, those plans could reasonably change according to circumstances. The FOMC also basically reaffirmed what already had been priced into the financial futures markets. So the Fed merely was saying out loud what the markets already were thinking.

By doing so, however, the monetary authorities helped encourage a significant flattening of the yield curve; that is a decline in longer-term interest rates relative to short-term rates.

With the Fed pegging the funds rate near zero through mid-2013, investors sitting in cash yielding nil would be encouraged to move to lengthier maturities. Which is what happened, with the 10-year Treasury briefly yielding last 2% last week. Importantly, the Fed’s pledge to keep the funds rate near zero was given greater credibility by some week economic data, such as the steep drop in the Philadelphia Fed’s regional index of manufacturing for August.

With the fed-funds rates hovering near zero, the Fed’s further policy options are limited but not eliminated. The markets’ hope is for Groundhog Day at Jackson Hole in which Bernanke announces a new QE3 similar to last year’s QE2. The odds of a rerun are virtually nil, given the mere announcement of holding the fed-funds rate unchanged has elicited the largest number of dissents on the FOMC since 1992.

Other possible moves would be far more subtle and mainly symbolic. The Fed could lower the interest rate it pays on excess reserves, which is currently pegged at 0.25%, to zero. One meme in the blogosphere complains about this supposed free money being given to banks for not lending. A quarter point in interest seems trivial, but these days two-year Treasury notes yield only 0.21%. But one market veteran observes that any bank that relies on making a few basis points parking its money at the Fed should as a profit center should just boost its checking fees instead.

Another tack could be for the Fed to reinvest its maturing Treasury and mortgage-backed securities in lengthier maturities, which ought to flatten the yield curve further in what’s been called Operation Twist 2.0. The Fed’s original Operation Twist in the early 1960s, named for the dance craze of the time, tried to boost the short end and lower the long end by Fed adjustment of its portfolio.

Nearly five decades and voluminous academic studies later, it’s still not clear Operation Twist worked. Indeed, the preliminary evidence on QE2 is ambiguous at best. Treasury note yields bottomed around the time the Fed started its purchases last November and rose thereafter until early 2011. Their yields plummeted after the Fed stopped buying on June 30 as signs of the deteriorating economy accumulated. So, it’s far from clear that even the U.S. central bank can distort the world’s biggest and most liquid securities market

Even so, Bernanke has also spoken of explicitly pegging longer-term Treasury yields, as the Fed did during the 1940s to help the Treasury finance World War II expenditures. One idea would be for the Fed to issue an implicit put option to investors. For instance, the central bank could say it would buy 10-year notes in whatever quantity to hold their yield under 3%. That level is well above the current 2.20%, making those puts out of the money. But such an assurance would make buyers more confident that if they bought notes yielding under 2%, their potential losses would be capped if yields rebounded. That theoretically could drive the yield still lower, say to 1.50%. A spread of about 1.25-1.50 percentage points is the historic norm between the fed-funds rate and the 10-year Treasury yield.

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 14:10:03

Operation Twist and the Effect of Large-Scale Asset Purchases
By Titan Alon and Eric Swanson

The Federal Reserve’s current large-scale asset purchase program, dubbed “QE2,” has a precedent in a 1961 initiative by the Kennedy Administration and the Federal Reserve known as “Operation Twist.” An analysis finds that four of six potentially market-moving Operation Twist announcements had statistically significant effects and that the program cumulatively caused a significant but moderate 0.15 percentage point reduction in longer-term Treasury yields. These results can be used to estimate QE2’s effects.

John F. Kennedy was elected president in November 1960 and inaugurated on January 20, 1961. The U.S. economy had been in recession for several months, so the incoming Administration and the Federal Reserve wanted to lower interest rates to stimulate the weak economy. However, Europe was not in a recession at the time and European interest rates were higher than those in the United States. Under the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system then in effect, this interest rate differential led cross-currency arbitrageurs to convert U.S. dollars to gold and invest the proceeds in higher-yielding European assets. The result was an outflow of gold from the United States to Europe amounting to several billion dollars per year, a very large quantity that was a source of extreme concern to the Administration and the Federal Reserve.

The Kennedy Administration’s proposed solution to this dilemma was to try to lower longer-term interest rates while keeping short-term interest rates unchanged—an initiative now known as “Operation Twist” in homage to the dance craze then sweeping the nation. The idea was that business investment and housing demand were primarily determined by longer-term interest rates, while cross-currency arbitrage was primarily determined by short-term interest rate differentials across countries. Policymakers reasoned that, if longer-term interest rates could be lowered without affecting short-term yields, the weak U.S. economy could be stimulated without worsening the outflow of gold.

Similarities between Operation Twist and QE2

 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2011-08-23 11:08:37

5.8 earthquake in DC area . Are the Gods trying to say something ?

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 11:17:26

It must be the Day after Tomorrow.

The Wall Street Journal

August 23, 2011, 2:00 PM ET

Quake Hits Virginia, Shakes Manhattan, Perturbs Markets
By Mark Gongloff

An earthquake just hit Virginia, and the tremors were felt all the way up here in Manhattan and as far north as Martha’s Vineyard.

The quake’s epicenter was in Mineral, Virginia, southwest of DC, in the middle of Virginia. The magnitude was 6.0, according to USGS — they upgraded that from an initial 5.8.

Apparently there were tremors felt in Detroit, too.

Markets actually moved on this a bit:

Treasurys are up, with the 10-year yielding 2.09%. That could partly be due to a strong 2-year Treasury note auction earlier, but the talk among traders is that the rally is at least partly because of the quake.

The stock market dipped just a teensy bit, but the Dow’s still up 175 points. The quake may have shaved about 40 points off the market.

Having a quake this close to Washington, DC, adds to the degree of concern. They’ve evacuated the Pentagon and the Capitol Building.

CNBC just showed dramatic footage of the NYSE floor, where they made an announcement about the quake, saying there’s a risk of aftershocks. The six human beings still working on the floor looked concerned.

Comment by Va Beyatch in Norfolk
2011-08-23 11:35:51

Got it good here in Norfolk. On 6th floor, was playing a first person shooter game on the PC. World started getting all warped. Building does it in very high wind, but no where near as bad. Was wild. Then people in DC and NYC started talking about feeling it.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 11:18:33

The New York Times
Rare Strong Earthquake Hits Colorado
By KIRK JOHNSON
Published: August 23, 2011

DENVER — The largest natural earthquake in Colorado in more than a century struck Monday night in the state’s southeast corner, but there had been no reports of damage or injuries.

The quake, with a preliminary magnitude of 5.3 and centered about nine miles from the city of Trinidad, hit at 11:46 p.m. local time. It was felt as far away as Greeley, about 350 miles north, and into Kansas and New Mexico, said Julie Dutton, a geophysicist at the National Earthquake Information Center in Golden, Colo.

Colorado, with its mix of mountains and plains, sits astride a seismically stable part of the nation where earthquakes are mostly mild and far between. But the area around Trinidad is regularly hit by tiny quakes as a result of a local fault zone, Ms. Dutton said.

She said that while Colorado has experienced several earthquakes close to Monday’s size in recent decades — a magnitude 5.3 near Denver in 1967 and a magnitude 5.7 in the state’s northwest corner in 1973 — both of those quakes were ultimately determined to have been caused by human activity, from explosives or drilling.

The last known natural event of comparable size was an earthquake in 1882 in what is now Rocky Mountain National Park, several hours northwest of Denver. That quake, based on historical reports, was about a magnitude 6.5, Ms. Dutton said.

Comment by rms
2011-08-23 14:02:41

Yellowstone Super Volcano
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Vn6kxfD3Ek

 
 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-23 11:26:41

Are the Gods trying to say something ?

Dick Cheney is angry & mightily jealous! [having just finished watching To the Shores of Tripoli] ;-)

[The Battle of Derne was the first recorded land battle of the United States on foreign soil after the American Revolutionary War]

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2011-08-23 11:56:08

The earthquake has led to the discovery of a previously unknown fault running up and down the east coast. The Obama administration immediately named it “Bush’s fault.”

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 13:43:26

Good one!

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Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-23 14:27:12

They might found it sooner, but it seems they was using Halliburton Inc. equipment. ;-)

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Comment by Pete
2011-08-23 15:56:18

Laughter!

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Comment by WT Economist
2011-08-23 12:07:35

It seems to be good for stocks. Here in Midtown Manhattan, all it did was make me motion sick.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 11:19:08

L.A. Darling plans to lay off 140 in Corning, mayor says
Aug 23, 2011

CORNING, AR (KAIT) – Residents in Clay County Monday were concerned with the news that L.A. Darling, based in Paragould, announced to employees that 140 people will be laid off starting October 1st. According to Corning Mayor Dewayne Phelan, employees at the plant’s Gondola Division were told earlier this month they would be laid off. According to Phelan, the plant was not receiving enough orders to keep up with demand.

“October 1st, Darling is planning to layoff another 130 to 140 people, which would bring their workforce down to somewhere around 30 to 40 people,” said Phelan.

L.A. Darling has operated in Clay County for at least the last 30 years, Phelan said. The company manufactures metal store fixtures for retailers across the United States. Phelan said it’s important to maintain an optimistic tone despite the negative report from the company.

“They expect orders to come back. They’re not moving out any equipment, any machines or something like that. Small orders will continue to be built here in Corning,” said Phelan. “They expect orders to come back in within the first quarter of next year.”

The company also expects to extend a temporary layoff to 109 employees in the Corning plant. In Piggott, 50 employees are expected to receive extended temporary layoffs. In all, nearly 300 people will be affected by the layoffs.

“The economic impact is going to be so severe for Corning that the loss of residents is another thing we’re going to have to look at,” said Phelan. “If they find another job, I’m sure they’re going to be relocating themselves. To have them move away from Corning with already the loss in population due to this census, that’s a big concern.”

“I guess my main concern is the fact that there are a lot of companies in northeast Arkansas that are hiring right now. They have a lot of openings, and some of these people that are going to be looking for a job from Darling are some of the key people in Darling,” said Phelan.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-08-23 13:39:03

“They expect orders to come back in within the first quarter of next year.”

And I expect that sometimes next year, they will announce that the dearth of order is “worse than expected”.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 11:31:49

Another “green jobs” creator bites the dust…

SpectraWatt files for bankruptcy, plans to stage asset auction
Rechargenews.com

Solar cell manufacturer SpectraWatt has filed for bankruptcy in the US courts and plans to auction off its assets.

SpectraWatt, based in Hopewell Junction, New York, has sought bankruptcy protection from its creditors under US Chapter 11 rules and wants permission to hold the auction next month.

The development is not a great surprise. In December, SpectraWatt announced it would it close its New York cell factory and lay off almost all its staff in response to “a large drop-off in demand” for solar cells.

The risk of SpectraWatt hitting the rocks has also been heavily trailed by Roth & Rau, the PV production-equipment manufacturer and a major supplier to the US firm.

In February, the German company took a one-off €12m financial hit attributed to the likelihood of insolvency at SpectraWatt, which is understood to have been trying to settle with creditors and find a buyer for itself for most of this year.

SpectraWatt becomes the second significant US solar group to seek Chapter 11 protection in a matter of weeks, after module and wafer-maker Evergreen Solar took the same route.

Like Evergreen, SpectraWatt was in line for millions of dollars in aid from local and federal grant schemes to support its PV manufacturing efforts, though it is unclear how much was handed over.

The company is a spin-off from chip behemoth Intel, which according to SpectraWatt’s website remains an investor along with Goldman Sachs and Solon, the German PV manufacturer that is experiencing problems of its own in the US.

As recently as November 2010 SpectraWatt was being lauded by the local business community, receiving a Business Excellence Award for operating the first solar-cell plant in New York, which it planned to build-out to up to 200MW of production capacity.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-23 14:00:04

Another MNC subsidy that flies under the radar.

-Form subsidiary in new technology.

-Use money borrowed/given to you by government/other people to do research, or build the infrastructure.

-Have 3 or 4 bad quarters, declare bankruptcy.

-MNC buys company in bankruptcy for pennies/nickels on the dollar, and all the liabilities written off.

-Ride off into the sunset.

Worked for the Iridium satphone guys.

 
Comment by Left Ohio
2011-08-23 15:18:59

Because the future belongs to coal, right?

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 11:43:42

In ailing industry, Carmichael’s Windmill Nursery loses fight to stay in business sacbee.com Aug. 23, 2011

The trend is striking independent plant nurseries like caterpillars on cabbage: A combination of lingering recession, pressure from big box stores and back-to-back wet springs has swept countless small nurseries into a sea of debt the last four years.

Late last week, news of another victim circulated in Sacramento’s tightly knit gardening circles: Carmichael’s Windmill Nursery is closing.

“The economy is killing everybody,” Windmill owner Paul Niemann said. “We tried to fight it as long as we could. We had to eliminate some (product) lines (primarily in the gift shop) so we could keep plants in stock.”

Nursery industry officials blame the poor economy and bad weather.

As home construction came to a standstill, so did creation of new landscapes, the backbone of the nursery business.

“In our area, I personally believe the real estate market and the plight of the state workers have conspired against garden centers, just like they have for other retail segments,” said John Adams, owner of Roseville’s Sierra Nursery.

“I believe the same number of customers still came through the doors, but I saw a shift in projects from large trees and shrubs to more color (annuals and perennials) as part of the pattern. Smaller projects equals smaller purchases.”

Complicating matters were back-to-back cold, wet spring seasons. Instead of tempting gardeners to get to work, the bad weather kept them inside – and away from nurseries.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-23 13:24:55

“…..poor economy and bad weather….”

Can’t wait to start getting the e-mails from my Tea-publican friends telling me that bad weather is Obama’s fault.

Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 13:48:15

No,No,No, it’s Bush’s fault! That can not change for at least 2 generations. Or else it would be racist.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-23 14:04:16

I’ve got an idea.

I’ll be the official “Designated Scapegoat”.

Send me a check for 20 million bucks (chump change), and everybody can blame me, and I’ll agree with them.

This idea has the unique, singular benefit of eliminating the need for a lot of arguing.

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Comment by Housing Wizard
2011-08-23 11:53:23

Serious ,hope all are well in earthquake zone that hit in VIrginia .

 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 11:54:14

Woman ‘encouraged husband to have sex with 12-year-old girl so that she would get pregnant and they could claim more benefits’
By Paul Thompson - UK Mail

A woman encouraged her husband to have sex with a 12-year-old girl so that she would get pregnant and they could claim extra cash benefits.

Alicia Bouchard even sat and watched while her 26-year-old husband had sex with the underage girl at their Florida home.

According to an arrest warrant, the 41-year-old wanted the girl to fall pregnant so that she and her husband would have extra income from state benefits.

The sex and benefits scam began after the girl, who has not been named, told Bouchard that she was sexually active.

Mrs Bouchard is alleged to have persuaded her to sleep with her husband Matt, telling her that ‘the worse that could happen is you would get pregnant’.

Her husband told authorities after his arrest on under age sex charges that it was his wife’s goal that a pregnancy would lead to more income for the household.

Police began investigating the Bouchard’s after they received a complaint that the girl was being sexually abused.

The arrest report does not reveal how the 12-year-old girl came to live with the married couple, but is believed to be a family friend.

Mr Bouchard was arrested on sex abuse charges last October and has been held in jail ever since.

His wife’s involvement began apparent went investigators talked to the 12-year-old girl after she was placed in a shelter.

Investigators also obtained a letter Mrs. Bouchard sent to the girl after she was placed in a shelter.

In the letter, she apologised to the girl for forcing her to watch her and her husband have sex and also said it was a mistake to watch her husband have sex with the 12-year-old victim.

She wrote she was ‘dang sure [she] should not have allowed [her] to have sex with Matt.”.

Bouchard was booked into jail on charges of being a principal to sexual battery, soliciting sexual activity with a child and principal to child abuse.
Her bond has been set at $70,000.

Comment by Neuromance
2011-08-23 18:45:22

You pay for your neighbors.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 12:08:21

Texas Sells Record $10 Billion Notes for Schools
(Bloomberg)

Texas will issue $9.8 billion of tax-exempt general-obligation notes today, the state’s largest short-term debt offering, to fund public schools.

Texas increased its annual top-rated tax and revenue anticipation note sale from last year by $2 billion to cover payments to school districts until the bulk of tax revenue receipts next year. The additional borrowing will compensate for the end of federal stimulus funding and property-tax collections that are below what was budgeted, said R.J. DeSilva, a spokesman for Comptroller Susan Combs. The state will direct more money to districts where property-tax revenue has fallen short.

State officials set the deal’s coupon rate at 2.5 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The note may price at yields of 0.30-0.35 percentage point, depending on the market, and whether investors of taxable funds also buy, said William Henderson, who oversees $16 billion of short-term municipal assets at BlackRock Inc. in Princeton, New Jersey.

Texas’s note deal “is the standard, cleanest, best-trading name in the industry,” Henderson said.

Last year, the state priced $7.8 billion of tax-exempt notes on Aug. 24 with a 2 percent coupon yielding an average interest cost of 34 basis points, or 10 basis points above an index of top-rated, one-year debt. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 12:14:45

Looks like we have a construction jobs creator on the way…

Irene Forecast to Grow as It Moves Toward U.S.
By Brian K. Sullivan - Aug 23, 2011 - Bloomberg

Hurricane Irene is expected to grow into a major storm in the next day as it rips through the Bahamas before going ashore in North Carolina over the weekend and moving up the East Coast, possibly threatening New York and New England.

Hurricane warnings are posted for most of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands as Irene, with top winds of 100 miles (160 kilometers) per hour, threatens to gain strength and power over the next three days. It was 55 miles south of Grand Turk Island at about 2 p.m. New York time, according to a National Hurricane Center advisory.

The current track estimates Irene will go ashore in North Carolina on Aug. 27. Visitors to Ocracoke Island and Hyde County were being told to leave tomorrow and residents were being urged to go, according to ABC-affiliate WCTI-TV in New Bern, North Carolina.

“There is nothing between where Irene is now and the U.S. in keeping it from not intensifying further into a major hurricane,” said Chris Hyde, meteorologist with MDA EarthSat Weather in Gaithersburg, Maryland. “The water temperatures are warm especially when you get to the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream is going to explode this thing.”
Possible Costs

Total losses from Irene may reach $3.1 billion across the Caribbean and along the U.S. coastline, according to estimates by Kinetic Analysis Corp. The National Hurricane Center estimates its top winds will peak at about 125 mph in two days, making it a Category 3 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Those winds are strong enough to blow windows out of high- rise buildings, snap trees and crush older mobile homes, according to the center.

“We have a lot of time for people to get ready but we don’t have forever,” W. Craig Fugate, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said today in a conference call. “There is a tendency for people to think of hurricanes to be southern things, but the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast states need to take the track of Hurricane Irene seriously.”

Predictions of where a hurricane may strike land are often inaccurate, the hurricane center said. The five-year average of error for predicting an event four days away is 200 miles, and for a five-day forecast, it is 250 miles.

Comment by CrackerBob
2011-08-23 12:32:22

Did Irene get a lower tax rate?

 
Comment by palmetto
2011-08-23 12:48:29

Every illegal construction worker from Florida to Maine is probably moist with anticipation right about now…

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 12:20:36

Clow workers next in area layoffs
Aug 23, 2011

COSHOCTON — Clow Water Systems Co. announced Monday it will lay off 15 to 20 employees. This comes only days after Ansell officials said the local plant will close in November, displacing 50 workers.

“Our sales have slowed due to less demand in the market place and low forecasted sales in the fourth quarter of 2011 and early 2012,” said Mickie Coggin, corporate communications director. “Our business follows new housing starts to a high correlation, and they have been hurt by the sputtering economy and existing home inventories.”

The manufacturer of ductile iron pipe and fittings used primarily for water and sewer systems has 425 employees, and the layoff affects workers in the foundry and flange departments.

Foundry workers pour iron into sand molds, creating fittings that hold pipe together and adapt and let the different sizes of pipe work together.

Employees in the flange department use pipe and fittings to make different types of fabricated and customized joints in water and waste water applications.

The affected employees have a two-year contractual recall agreements if business should pick up, said Derek Dozer, human resources manager. The last layoff of about 60 employees was in January 2010, and all were given an opportunity to return.

“It’s not something we like to do,” Dozer said of the layoff.

In 2010, the company celebrated its 100th anniversary of operations in Coshocton.

Other businesses hit with layoffs recently include Kraft Foods of Coshocton, which produces Oscar Mayer bacon, and Ansell Occupational Healthcare, which manufactures protective gloves for the health care industry.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-08-23 13:21:06

“……sales slowed due to less demand…..”

“…..low forecasted sales….”

Gee, I’m noticing a pattern here……..must be excessive regulation and Obamacare!!!

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 12:23:21

Hong Kong’s ‘Scary’ 7.9% Inflation May Fuel Wages Even as Recession Looms
By Sophie Leung - Aug 23, 2011- Bloomberg

Hong Kong’s inflation surged to the fastest pace since 1995, encouraging workers to press for higher pay even as the economy teeters on the edge of recession.

The consumer price index rose 7.9 percent from a year earlier after a 5.6 percent increase in June, the government reported on its website yesterday. Excluding distortions caused by a public housing subsidy, prices rose 5.8 percent.

Hong Kong’s economy will shrink again this quarter after a contraction in the three months through June that was caused by an export slowdown, Morgan Stanley and Daiwa Capital Markets say. Wage increases may add pressure on profit margins just as businesses including McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) report that they are grappling with increased rent and material costs.

“The headline CPI figure is pretty scary, and that will change inflation expectations among residents in a drastic way,” said Kevin Lai, of Daiwa, the most accurate of nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg News on gross domestic product for the second quarter. “The higher business costs and rising expectations for wage gains may force some companies to close and hasten the recession,” said Lai, who is based in Hong Kong.

The city’s inflation-linked bonds rose to as much as HK$107.30 ($13.76) on the stock exchange today, the highest since their debut on July 29. They closed up 0.3 percent at $106.90. The initial sale price of the notes, due July 2014, was HK$100.

Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-23 21:28:57

I wonder what is driving their inflation (any particular item).

I also wonder what their inflation would look like if they used our oft-monkeyed with measures…probably 2.1%…

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 12:36:34

Sounds like this moron has it all figured out…

Dem Congresswoman: “The Real Enemy Is The Tea Party”
- Real Clear Politics

“Let us all remember who the real enemy is. The real enemy is the Tea Party — the Tea Party holds the Congress hostage. They have one goal in mind, and that’s to make President Obama a one-term president,” Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-FL) said at a Miami town hall with constituents.

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-08-23 15:22:57

Sounds like this moron has it all figured out…

“There you go again…” Ronnie Raygun ;-)

Speakin’ of let’s-get-to-the-point #2 pencils who know how to cheer-lead while wearing a Evangelical-cowboy “white-hat”…:

Republican Presidential candidate Rick Perry wrote last year that Social Security was a “failure” and “an illegal Ponzi scheme” that may violate the constitution – as might Medicare, environmental protections, bans on child labor, minimum wage laws and food safety requirements.

Perry is also distinguishing himself by questioning evolution and man-made climate change.

Perry questions constitutionality of Social Security
August 23rd, 2011, \ by Martin Wisckol, Politics reporter

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 13:00:27

So when the Bernake pops his head out of Jackson Hole on Friday, what happens if/when he does NOT announce the launching of the QE-111

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 13:42:16

New stock market lows next week for sure…

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 13:04:49

DOW up over 300, buy now or be priced out forever!

 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 13:51:11

Man Asks Pedestrian for $1, Then Stabs Him
Tuesday, Aug 23, 2011 |

Police are looking for a man who stabbed a pedestrian on Long Island after asking him for a dollar.

Nassau County police say the 27-year-old victim was walking on Nassau Road in Roosevelt Monday evening when the suspect approached and asked him for one dollar.

The victim said he didn’t have any money and continued walking.

Police say the suspect followed him and then pulled out a knife and stabbed him in the stomach and hand multiple times.

A passing motorist scared the suspect off. He fled, empty-handed, in an unknown direction.

The victim was taken to a local hospital where he was listed in stable condition.

The suspect is described as a black man about 5′7″ with a medium build. He was last seen wearing a red and black New York Yankees hat, black hoodie and blue jeans, police said.

Comment by Left Ohio
2011-08-23 15:21:09

Another Drudge link

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2011-08-23 13:57:04

Quake provides field day for Washington wise-acres

WASHINGTON (AP) — Minutes after Tuesday’s earthquake rattled Washington, smart-alecks began flooding the social network site Twitter with wisecracks.

“S&P has downgraded earthquake to a 2.0,” said one wag, taking a swipe at the rating agency that recently lowered the federal government’s credit-worthiness.

Several 140-character wits took potshots at GOP presidential contenders. “Rick Perry denies earthquake,” said one. Another had Michele Bachmann vowing to bring all U.S. earthquakes down to a 2.9 magnitude, a dig at her promise to lower gasoline prices. Still another said New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a large man, had just “jumped into” the presidential race.

One photo purporting to illustrate the “devastation” in Washington showed a slightly tilting trash can, while another showed a small plastic chair tipped over on a tranquil lawn.

President Barack Obama wasn’t spared: “There was just a 5.9 earthquake in Washington. Obama wanted it to be 3.4, but the Republicans wanted 5.9, so he compromised.”

Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-23 14:27:14

President Barack Obama wasn’t spared: “There was just a 5.9 earthquake in Washington. Obama wanted it to be 3.4, but the Republicans wanted 5.9, so he compromised.”

I hear that Martha’s Vineyard was also affected by this quake.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 14:04:04

This Time is Different

WORLD
Greenspan: recovery will be long and painful

1:13 PM Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, says that a lack of long-term investment is slowing down the US recovery. Gillian Tett, the FT’s US managing editor, analyses Mr Greenspan’s thoughts on how this economic downturn is different from those in the past. (3m 25sec)
Credits:
Produced by Lagan Sebert

Comment by combotechie
2011-08-23 19:29:50

Oh pleeeease.

Greenspan is saying that there will be pain, pain for everyone, but “if we try to prevent the adjustment from happening it’s going to get worse.”

GREENSPAN said THAT?

Does anyone here remember the “Greenspan put”? This is the policy and the signal that Greenspan sent to markets everywhere that, no matter how bad and ugly things got, the Fed would always be there to save the day.

The makets became conditioned by the Fed and Greenspan’s “Put” to take all the risk they wanted and to be as stupid as they liked because in the end Greenspan and his Fed would ride in and save the day.

NOW he is saying “if we try to prevent the adjustment from happening it’s going to get worse”.

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 21:03:46

Does rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic qualify as a variant of the Bernanke put?

‘The Greenspan & Bernanke put: R.I.P.,’ Rosenberg says
August 18, 2011, 2:13 PM

A morning glance at the headlines — Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA off 400 points, 10-year note yield 10_year at record low under 2% — leads economist David Rosenberg to point out that the market is swiftly running through the cheap-money stimulus supplied by the Federal Reserve and other central banks over the last three years. And stock investors aren’t likely to get much more in the way of help.

“It should not be lost on anybody that every other time in the past when the equity market sagged as much as it has in the past few months — down almost 20% peak-to-trough — the Fed could always be relied upon to cut interest rates and hold everybody’s hand in the process,” said Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Assoc.

“The Fed now has no such cannon, nor does it even have a pistol — we are down to unconventional firecrackers. And even with these, the Fed has been doing little more than alter the wording in its press statement.”

The Greenspan & Bernanke put: R.I.P.”

– Laura Mandaro

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 21:05:03

“…take all the risk they wanted and to be as stupid as they liked…”

Sounds like a hell of a great recipe to sink and economy and destroy a Nation’s economy.

Was that the plan?

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 14:38:47

Scenarios: Bernanke Jackson Hole speech could rattle markets

Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke speaks at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition luncheon in Washington March 14, 2008. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

By Steven C. Johnson
NEW YORK | Tue Aug 23, 2011 4:33pm EDT

(Reuters) - Whether the Federal Reserve likes it or not, its unprecedented monetary polices over the last few years have conditioned the financial markets to expect a helping hand when the going gets tough.

That’s why all eyes will be on Ben Bernanke, the central bank’s chairman, when he speaks Friday at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

With the stock market mired in a month-long slump and both the U.S. and euro zone economies in danger of sliding into recession, investors are bracing for a possible repeat of last year’s performance, when Bernanke hinted the Fed would act if conditions deteriorated.

Two months later, the central bank began pumping $600 billion into the financial system through direct purchases of Treasury debt, a second round of stimulus that markets dubbed “QE2.”

While the jury’s still out on how effective these purchases have been, few are ready to rule out QE3 entirely.

Following is a look at what the Fed could do.

Comment by WT Economist
2011-08-23 15:36:27

Buy the Jackson Hole, sell when a rabbit fails to emerge?

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-23 15:59:32

Hey, what do you guys and gals think about purchasing life insurance (whole life) as an investment? Worth it or not?

BTW, the company in question is New York Life. I just got their Weiss rating — an A, which is good — but I wanted other opinions.

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 16:40:57

If you are healthy, consider 20-year term, which is cheaper than whole life, because the insurance company can set a premium that reflects that you will survive before they have to pay a claim, yet locks in your premium for the period, unlike 1-year term. And be sure you purchase enough to cover your inflation expectations risk premium.

Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 16:42:06

…reflects the probability that…

 
 
Comment by SV guy
2011-08-23 18:08:52

Do you have any dependents Slim?

If not you don’t need life insurance. Unless things have changed dramatically in the last 15 years, whole life insurance is a terrible investment (I don’t carry life insurance myself anymore).

Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-23 18:12:23

If not you don’t need life insurance. Unless things have changed dramatically in the last 15 years, whole life insurance is a terrible investment (I don’t carry life insurance myself anymore).

I’m thinking the same thing. And I don’t have dependents.

Anyone have any experience with New York Life non-insurance investments? They do have a line of mutual funds.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-08-23 19:11:11

Slim, in general insurance companies non-insurance investments tend to be poor performers—higher expense ratios, and thus lower returns.

I’d instead recommend mutual funds from a company like Vanguard. They offer great index funds, very low expenses, great service, etc.

My bias is as others have described: invest elsewhere, and get the life insurance you need based on financial commitments/dependents on a term basis, ideally longer-term term like PB suggested so that you understand the real costs over the long-term. 1-yr term can be very cheap when you are young, and quite expensive as you age, so you have to think over the long term when comparing costs.

But if you have no dependents/commitments, not insurance and investing elsewhere would be my advice.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Arizona Slim
2011-08-23 19:45:05

Slim, in general insurance companies non-insurance investments tend to be poor performers—higher expense ratios, and thus lower returns.

That’s what I suspected.

What’s worse, the guy who I’m dealing with is a captive agent. New York Life. Which means that’s what he sells and it’s all he sells.

In case you’re wondering, we know each other from a previous employer. We both worked together.

But if you have no dependents/commitments, not insurance and investing elsewhere would be my advice.

I agree.

And, truth be told, I’m having some major buyer’s remorse about this purchase of life insurance (which I don’t need) as an investment (which it is not).

Now I’m wondering what my right of cancellation is on this policy. Or should I be calling my attorney and asking him that question?

As for Vanguard, I know ‘em well. Have been a happy customer for many years. When it comes to investing, I’d much rather do it with them.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-23 21:36:41

I got term to protect my family. My agent was trying to sell me on whole as my “safe” investment, earning a few percent per year. Given my view on inflation, I would rather keep my “safe” investment in something that has more than a 0% chance of keeping up with CPI.

Comment by Rental Watch
2011-08-23 21:39:18

By the way, you only need to go as far as the investments life companies make to see that they won’t keep up with inflation. Life company loans were/are being priced at something like 6% fixed for 10 years. How much of that 6% do you think they are going to keep for profit? How much to pay out to those who are unfortunate enough to have their families collect? How much to you?

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-23 20:12:27

Gotta love RP’s sense of humor!

Ron Paul: Perry made even ‘me look like a moderate’

Posted by Kai Ryssdal
on August 18, 2011 2:24 PM

This final note today. Ron Paul made a funny about the Republican presidential field today. Remember the other day we noted Texas governor Rick Perry’s displeasure with what the Federal Reserve’s doing about interest rates? Said printing more money between now and Election Day for political purposes would be “treasonous.”

Well, fellow GOP hopeful Ron Paul, the guy who wants us back on the gold standard and whose book is called End the Fed, said today Perry’s remarks make him look like a moderate.

Thought that was funny.

 
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