August 26, 2011

The Feast Is Nothing More Than An Empty Promise

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Hundreds of at-risk homeowners poured into the Palm Beach County Convention Center on Friday in hopes of saving their homes. According to U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch, D-Boca Raton, maintaining homeownership is pivotal in turning the economy around. ‘The government needs to recognize that if we want to be serious about making the economy better, we have to help people own their homes,’ Deutch said.”

“Ron Faris, president of Ocwen Financial Corp., primary sponsor of the Hope Now event, said mistakes were made with unsustainable loans that hurt the consumer. ‘Many customers, although they might be able to afford their payments, their houses are significantly under water and it makes it difficult for them to want to continue on,’ Faris added.”

“Two years ago, Mary Blady’s husband, Howard, who works in construction, was laid off when the housing market collapsed in the wake of the recession and lending crisis. Then, when they couldn’t pay their mortgage on time, the bank foreclosed on their Winter Park home where they had lived for 10 years. Howard recently got a full-time job again, making the same money as he had before, but the bank has refused to set up a payment plan to stave off foreclosure, Mary said.”

“‘The banks caused this, then we helped them with a huge bailout, and now they’re foreclosing on our homes,’ she said. ‘How crazy is that?’”

“When she found out that the Hardest Hit Fund might be able to save her house, she said she discovered that despite their recent struggles with unemployment and underemployment, they didn’t qualify for assistance. That kind of frustration has made her wonder why an assistance fund was set up at all. ‘Why don’t you just hand over that billion dollars to the banks now and save a few trees?’ she said. ‘You can even give ’em our house keys.’”

“About 1,140 homeowners on the Treasure Coast and in Okeechobee County have applied for the program. But of those, just 61 local applications have been approved. Treasure Coast homeowners received only $49,207 so far out of the $1.098 million that was allocated to them collectively out of the program’s budget.”

“Meanwhile, 269 Treasure Coast applications were rejected because they did not meet the program eligibility guidelines. ‘Very few applications even ended up at the final table,’ said Anthony Gambardella, president of the Realtors Association of St. Lucie Inc. about the Hardest Hit Fund. ‘(It’s) another tail chasing the dog program.’”

“New Jersey is third in the nation in the number of loans either in foreclosure or on the brink, with more than one of every 10 either already in foreclosure or ’seriously delinquent,’ according to a report issued by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The figures are also affected by when the loans were taken: Those between 2005 and 2007 accounted for 30 percent of all mortgages but 65 percent of the seriously delinquent loans – thanks, of course, to the housing bubble.”

“At the same time, New Jersey is one of several states suffering from backlogged foreclosure filings that would have drastically driven up the number, the association cautioned. ‘The good news is the continued decline in long-term delinquencies, those mortgages that are three payments or more past due,’ said said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist. ‘The bad news is that drop is offset by an increase in newly delinquent loans one payment past due.’”

“About half of all residential real estate sales in Ventura County this spring involved properties in some stage of foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac. Ventura County had the seventh-highest average sales price for foreclosure-related homes among the state’s 58 counties — $348,892, said Daren Blomquist, RealtyTrac director of marketing communications.”

“Beverly Durham, a Realtor with RE/MAX in Camarillo, said she has seen an increase of short sales in Oxnard, Camarillo and Ventura, while nonforeclosure sellers are choosing to hold on to their properties. ‘If you don’t have to sell, I would stay in the home unless you really need to get out of it,’ Durham said. ‘Why would a buyer pay more money for a property when they can go down the block and get the same home for a lesser price?’”

“While the median price of a house in Cascade County hasn’t changed much over the past three years, Flathead and Gallatin Counties have seen dramatic changes. New homes were going up left and right in those counties, but now homebuilders aren’t so busy. The reason people aren’t buying houses, says Patrick Barkey, the Director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana, is because prices keep going down.”

“‘With prices falling, why not wait a little longer and see if you can get a better deal,’ he points out. Barkey predicts prices will stop falling by then end of 2011, which is good news for realtors.”

“According to RealtyTrac, there were 280 sales in April through June in Douglas County and the average price was $89,504. Homes that were not in foreclosure that were sold average $100,155. While the numbers are good, it shows that the high number or repossessed homes, has made it a buyers’ market.”

“‘Now is an incredible time for potential homebuyer,’ said Sheree Newmeyer of Better Homes and Garden Real Estate/Metro Brokers. ‘The high number on the market have given buyers several to select from, and the prices are incredible. When you look at what these homes sold for new versus what they are now, it is great for the buyer. Couple that with the low interest rates, and it’s a double bonus for buyers.’”

“Residents going through foreclosure in East Central Illinois have lost their jobs or had their hours cut; are dealing with an illness and have more medical bills. Some are going through a divorce, or have taken out a subprime mortgage loan they could not afford. In some cases they’re first-time home buyers like Kevin Schoening. Foreclosures will not go away by the homeowner avoiding court or ignoring letters from lenders or attorneys, said Schoening, who said people who go through a foreclosure should document every person they see and every conversation they have about the case.”

“‘There’s going to be some tears, some yelling, some sleepless nights,’ he said. ‘When you’re in foreclosure, you’ve got to jump into that system. Show up in court. If you don’t know what to do, say, ‘I’m not sure what do to,’ said Schoening, whose wife has regained her health and is able to work again. They’re now renting a home in Champaign. ‘There is life after a foreclosure,’ he said.”

“Head north from Las Vegas on Interstate 15 and you can’t miss Mesquite. Boom times began with the completion of Interstate 15, which connected Las Vegas with points north. Somebody put in a couple of poker machines at the truck stop. Soon casinos followed. The city incorporated in 1984 and drew up its master development plan during the early 1990s. The goal was to attract retirees by offering an alternative to Las Vegas.”

“But like so many other places, Mesquite began to struggle as the housing industry imploded and hard times came. The hulking ghosts of the boom times, The Mesquite Star and The Oasis casinos, are shuttered now, with fading paint and empty parking lots. As its corporate owner tries to emerge from bankruptcy, the big lights outside The Oasis still offer the $5.99, all-you-can-eat roast beef buffet to travelers. But now the feast is nothing more than an empty promise.”

“Mesquite isn’t one of those foreclosure ghost towns that blight other parts of Nevada. It seems more a case of arrested development. Newly paved streets lead nowhere. There is an empty, half-baked feel to the place. Even the city’s anticipated growth proved to be a mirage. After years of recession, the official U.S. 2010 Census count is 15,277, still almost double what it was a decade ago but far short of the 20,440 Mesquite claims on its website. ‘Either we managed to drive away 6,000 people or that number is a fantasy,’ said Morris Workman, who until recently covered City Hall as editor of The Mesquite Local News.”

“Responding to Rebecca Mowbray’s story ‘Foreclosures are growing part of the New Orleans area real estate market,’ reader milwriter commented: ‘And remember the major cause of this housing crisis: the unholy alliance of the feds and financial services industry encouraging, prodding and prompting many who could not afford real estate into the market.’”

“‘It’s time to stop leading ALL working adults to believe that owning a home (or condo) is part of the American dream. Many can’t and never will be able to afford their own residence.’”




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33 Comments »

Comment by WT Economist
2011-08-26 07:19:55

“The figures are also affected by when the loans were taken: Those between 2005 and 2007 accounted for 30 percent of all mortgages but 65 percent of the seriously delinquent loans – thanks, of course, to the housing bubble.”

I wonder how the figures would grow if 2004, 2005 and 2008 loans were included? And I wonder how many of the loans at that time were cash out refis by those who could have, and should have, paid off their purchase mortgages?

Comment by jeff saturday
2011-08-26 07:42:44

I am tired of looking up public records of victims who get their foreclosure sob stories printed in the media down here only to find that they took out 1, 2 or $300k in “equity” before they fell on hard times and could no longer make their house payment through no fault of their own.

Comment by marshall
2011-08-26 09:50:34

I have a couple I know who this happened to. I love them to death but they took out a HELLOC on a house they bought in 1997 and then the hubby lost his job. It would have been OK had they not gone out and bought; a boat, 2 cars, one truck (F250 which they could not sell because gas was $4), and some land far away which they never used. They also sent their daughter to college and surprise - they had to come out of pocket for her tuition.
They are smart hard working people. The wife is a working professional with 25 years experience.
Oh yeah the signed up and participated in one of those “loan adjustment” programs but after paying a reduced mortgage for months, they were sent a foreclosure notice.
They had their house auctioned off the house last week and they are moving into a rental next month.
It was painful for me to see that happen, but what can you do? “Everybody was doing it!”

Comment by BetterRenter
2011-08-26 20:07:52

They are smart hard working people.

No. They. Aren’t.

They are those middle-class snooty types that thought they were better than everyone else, which is why they borrowed and spent like they were rich. They were only planning on being rich. They were as ego-driven as any hood rat drivin’ his hooptie mobile from one GFs house to another each night, servicing “his bitches”, with his $8000 stereo blaring from point to point. (I have friends in an urban police force, and they pull these guys over all the time. They literally spend hours a night going from house to house having sex with various GFs. Total ego freaks and alpha males.)

The middle class got totally egotistical and I have no problem slapping them down as they deserve. I see far too many people with advanced degrees signing forms like there are no real economic consequences. In other words, real economic intelligence is in the real working class schmoe like myself, not our “educated” classes.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2011-08-26 07:41:00

“‘The banks caused this, then we helped them with a huge bailout, and now they’re foreclosing on our homes,’ she said. ‘How crazy is that?’”

If it isn’t illegal, it ought to be. But I guess it was our Congress that handed former Goldman Sachs CEO Henry Paulson over $700bn to bail out the banks, and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke who handed out trillions in bailouts to banks all over the planet in the wake of the Fall 2008 Wall Street collapse. I guess it makes it legal if the Federal Reserve Chairman and the Treasury Secretary do it?

Comment by GH
2011-08-26 08:17:42

The foxes guarding the chickens???

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2011-08-26 08:55:36

The idea that Wall Street /Banks/Corporate America /Insurance Companies ,can operate while decoupled from Main Street America that represents 85 % of the population is the joke .

All the pain is suppose to be put on the 85% ,including the Government get all the pain ,and that’s how this is suppose to be solved

Clearly when it was apparent that the fake lending and wealth by debt using real estate was about to blow the Power Bokers sought to change the natural course of shared pain .

While Corporate America wants Americans to be consumers ,they
can’t seem to see that plentiful jobs and decent wages creates
this condition of buying power .

Ralph Nadar was talking on some program yesterday and he even mentioned how Corporations don’t care about USA people ,they don’t want pollution controls ,they want low wages with no benefits,no regulations ,yet they want to sell to the American People .

When TSHTF Government is suppose to fill in the gaps ,but don’t tax the 15 % segment ,or don’t change the rigged systems that allowed this stacked deck by Globalism .

Tell the sheep that their benefits were rigged and unsustainable
not the Elites systems of rigged wealth amassment .

I just had to laugh when some MSM News program was counseling people on how to cope with getting their paycheck cut by 50% when their expenses in life are going up .

Coporate America has to make a defined profit or Wall street won’t be pleased .

Well Main Street needs to make a defined paycheck or they won’t be pleased . Mainstreet needs their defined for years benefits or they won’t be pleased and some people might starve ,or not be able to afford their stupid mortgage either .

Comment by Awaiting
2011-08-26 10:26:14

Housing Wizard
Loved your post, and agree.

To add salt to the injury, Ca passes the Dream Act (or will be soon) that gives the illegals/and offspring of, a free junior college education, grants and discounts to universities, while the rest of us pay the going rate.

effing insanity during a Depression.

 
Comment by GH
2011-08-26 17:33:23

While Corporate America wants Americans to be consumers ,they
can’t seem to see that plentiful jobs and decent wages creates
this condition of buying power .

I have been saying this for years, but where it all falls apart is in the manner in which bonuses are paid. Most are paid based on THIS quarters profits. Long term planning, strategy etc is out the window when the clear and best strategy is to forget about tomorrow and make all you can today.

It further breaks down when our elected officials are all in big business pockets and demand cheap labor wherever they can get it. Again get elected NOW worry about the future later…

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2011-08-26 08:28:53

According to U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch, D-Boca Raton, maintaining homeownership is pivotal in turning the economy around. ‘The government needs to recognize that if we want to be serious about making the economy better, we have to help people own their homes,’ Deutch said.”

‘Many customers, although they might be able to afford their payments, their houses are significantly under water and it makes it difficult for them to want to continue on,’ Faris added.”

Think about the logic of this.

This politician (along with many others) thinks it is the JOB of the federal government to help people with “homeownership” who can already afford the houses they are in.

Comment by Jim A
2011-08-26 09:57:15

But this event was in Florida, which is a full recourse state. That SHOULD give those who CAN pay more inclination to do so. The prospect of debt collectors coming after you for the rest of the money is supposed to motivate one. Of course there ARE plenty who can’t make those payments, people who agreed to a series of payments that they never had any reasonable chance of making.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-08-26 10:18:32

“But this event was in Florida, which is a full recourse state. That SHOULD give those who CAN pay more inclination to do so.”

Unless, of course, they have nothing else to lose. In that case, recourse is a low motivator. Assuming they qualify on income, they can easily just file BK and wipe any deficiency judgement away—assuming of course that the bank has their paperwork sufficiently lined up to even acquire one.

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2011-08-26 08:33:25

Durham said. ‘Why would a buyer pay more money for a property when they can go down the block and get the same home for a lesser price?’”

Clear title?
The property being maintained?
No short sale banks to deal with?
No squatters to kick out?
Etc.

Comment by Awaiting
2011-08-26 09:54:11

2banana - clear title vs. carve outs and future headaches. But there is a cap on the price variance, that’s for sure.

 
 
Comment by Montana
2011-08-26 08:59:25

“The hulking ghosts of the boom times, The Mesquite Star and The Oasis casinos, are shuttered now, ”

OMG, seriously? LOL! I haven’t been down I-15 in years, but used to go through Mesquite regulary on my way to LA. It was really booming back then, but awfully far from LV. Did it even have a hospital?

Comment by DennisN
2011-08-26 18:48:37

For casinos to work, there has to be scarcity. Casinos can’t make money if there’s one on every streetcorner.

Years ago they were banned across the US. Then Nevada allowed them, and they had a monopoly on the concept. Then Atlantic City followed. Then Indian casinos followed. Then the states got into state lotteries. Pretty soon none of them will really make any money.

Some may survive due to what I call “state line arbitrage”. LV is within driving distance of LA; Jackpot is within driving distance of Boise; and Wendover is within driving distance of Salt Lake City.

 
 
Comment by Awaiting
2011-08-26 09:08:09

Ben
Thank you for the Ventura County (So Ca) coverage in the press collage. It gave me some insight into the uphill battle of home hunting we’ve been experiencing.

BOA/ReconTrust and Amgen are big employers here. BOA use to have pages and pages of jobs on Indeed. Now it’s just a few jobs. Job opportunity is fading, yet housing prices are still insane here.

Comment by JohnF
2011-08-26 12:49:30

The problem in Ventura County (specifically the TO and Westlake areas) is the lack of foreclosures.

Even with the supposed real estate downturn, on a per square foot basis, prices have been rising in this area since the spring of 2009. This market has VERY low inventory and has for the last 3 years. Too many long-time owners that don’t have to sell (so they don’t) and not enough “desperate” sellers or banks that want to dump the homes.

I have seen a few flips where an individual (or entity) went straight to the bank, bought the paper from them, foreclosed, wiped out the 2nd and 3rd liens, and then rehabbed the place for a tidy profit - an avenue unavailable to the general public and the banks only do it with people they know are going to eventually sell the home at the current high prices.

Absent a major rise in interest rates (which the Fed aint gonna allow - we’ll see at least QE3 to QE7) the prices in this area are going to remain elevated for the next few years IMHO.

Comment by Awaiting
2011-08-26 17:22:28

JohnF
Howdy neighbor. We’ve moved to this area in 1984, buying a newly built McMansion. Then we moved up to a really big McMansion. Then sold it a long time ago (regular sale).

The patterns of this area, are reminding us why we left the SFV. (i.e. illegals invading)
Long term that’s a bad omen.

Actually, the homes we’ve looked at so far, have gone down in price (lots of buying a listing-then reduced) but our criteria is tight and it’s our final joint, all cash.

Foreclosures have been in bad locations, and are usually flips (not to our taste) or the NHD (Natural Hazard Disclosure) blows the deal.

When you’re a smart buyer (like you and I) it’s depressing, isn’t it.

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2011-08-26 10:57:45

Nails it.

For those of you who continue to compare 0bama to Reagan.

The stats and results don’t lie.

Hope and change boys! Coming up in 2012…

———————-

Obamanonics vs. Reaganomics One program for recovery worked, and the other hasn’t.
The Wall Street Journal | AUGUST 26, 2011. | STEPHEN MOORE

If you really want to light the fuse of a liberal Democrat, compare Barack Obama’s economic performance after 30 months in office with that of Ronald Reagan. It’s not at all flattering for Mr. Obama.

The two presidents have a lot in common. Both inherited an American economy in collapse. And both applied daring, expensive remedies. Mr. Reagan passed the biggest tax cut ever, combined with an agenda of deregulation, monetary restraint and spending controls. Mr. Obama, of course, has given us a $1 trillion spending stimulus.

The two presidents have a lot in common. Both inherited an American economy in collapse. And both applied daring, expensive remedies. Mr. Reagan passed the biggest tax cut ever, combined with an agenda of deregulation, monetary restraint and spending controls. Mr. Obama, of course, has given us a $1 trillion spending stimulus.

By the end of the summer of Reagan’s third year in office, the economy was soaring. The GDP growth rate was 5% and racing toward 7%, even 8% growth. In 1983 and ‘84 output was growing so fast the biggest worry was that the economy would “overheat.” In the summer of 2011 we have an economy limping along at barely 1% growth and by some indications headed toward a “double-dip” recession. By the end of Reagan’s first term, it was Morning in America. Today there is gloomy talk of America in its twilight.

My purpose here is not more Reagan idolatry, but to point out an incontrovertible truth: One program for recovery worked, and the other hasn’t.

The Reagan philosophy was to incentivize production—i.e., the “supply side” of the economy—by lowering restraints on business expansion and investment. This was done by slashing marginal income tax rates, eliminating regulatory high hurdles, and reining in inflation with a tighter monetary policy.

Fast-forward to today. Mr. Obama is running deficits of $1.3 trillion, or 8%-9% of GDP. If the Reagan deficits powered the ’80s expansion, the Obama deficits—twice as large—should have the U.S. sprinting at Olympic speed.

The left has now embraced a new theory to explain why the Obama spending hasn’t worked. The answer is contained in the book “This Time Is Different,” by economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. Published in 2009, the book examines centuries of recessions and depressions world-wide. The authors conclude that it takes nations much longer—six years or more—to recover from financial crises and the popping of asset bubbles than from typical recessions.

In any case, what Reagan inherited was arguably a more severe financial crisis than what was dropped in Mr. Obama’s lap. You don’t believe it? From 1967 to 1982 stocks lost two-thirds of their value relative to inflation, according to a new report from Laffer Associates. That mass liquidation of wealth was a first-rate financial calamity. And tell me that 20% mortgage interest rates, as we saw in the 1970s, aren’t indicative of a monetary-policy meltdown.

There is something that is genuinely different this time. It isn’t the nature of the crisis Mr. Obama inherited, but the nature of his policy prescriptions. Reagan applied tax cuts and other policies that, yes, took the deficit to unchartered peacetime highs.

But that borrowing financed a remarkable and prolonged economic expansion and a victory against the Evil Empire in the Cold War. What exactly have Mr. Obama’s deficits gotten us?

Comment by Steve J
2011-08-26 12:05:25

So it’s a calamity when rich people lose money??

 
Comment by darrell_in_phoenix
2011-08-26 14:09:54

Reagan and Obama….

Both trying to use access to debt to fuel consumer spending that is hobbled by lack of wages.

The main difference between Reagan and Obama is that Reagan took office 20 years after Ike, so was starting from 32.5% debt/GDP. Obama took office 20 years after Reagan so started at 84.2% debt/GDP.

Excuse me while I do a little math…

1980
Total household debt: $1.4T (federal reserve z1)
# of households: 80.8 million (US census)
Debt per household = $17,500

Inflate 17500 to 2008 = $45725 (CPI inflation calculator, bls)

2008
Total household debt: $13.8T
Total number of households: 112 million (census)
Dept per hosuehold: $123,215

So, not only did Obama start at 2.5x as much government debt as % of GDP, but with 2.7x as much household per household debt adjusted for inflation.

Reagan is a great president because it took 20 years after he left office to reach the end of the road that he put us on (insolvancy).

While Obama is a suck president because he was elected after we had arrived at the destination?

We are going to repeat the errors of the GD.

First we try spending our way out. When that fails, we’ll try gutting out way out. When that fails… okay, hopefully we don’t wallow about in depression until another world war lays waste all of the other industrialized countries of the world.

Comment by b-hamster
2011-08-26 14:37:33

I see no difference in the two parties whatsoever. The 90% (probably all of us here) bickering between themselves is exactly the game that the top 10% wants us to play.

As my friend tells me, the only difference between the two parties is the spelling.

Comment by polly
2011-08-26 14:56:22

The difference is who you get on the Supreme Court. Even if you claim that there are no other differences (there are on the margins), you can’t dispute that one.

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Comment by b-hamster
2011-08-26 16:40:40

I don’t disagree with that statement, but anything critical that raises the ire of the MSM, and consequetly the general population that follows the MSM, has to do with guns, God or gays.

 
 
 
Comment by Ol'Bubba
2011-08-26 14:53:10

Thanks for the analysis, Darrell.

What popped into my mind was this: when interest rates are near 20%, they only have one way to go and that’s down. When interest rates are close to 0%, they only have one way to go and that’s up.

 
 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-26 17:57:26

Folks…. look at the author. Steve Moore is a corporate banking thug and corporate think tank propagandist.

 
 
Comment by Erik
2011-08-26 11:10:51

A boat, 2 cars, and a truck, plus some land (probably BS like Forbes Ranch with acres of worthless desert)?? Well, weren’t they just savy “investors” ?
At least after the stress induced divorce the 2 cars will give them both a place to live…morons. Jim Kunstler is right about our becoming a nation of children.

 
Comment by Steve J
2011-08-26 12:09:32

That was a very sad story.

” While she was there, she changed the beneficiary of her police pension from Bill to her mother.”

I didnt know police could assign pension beneficiaries other than spouses.

 
Comment by darrell_in_phoenix
2011-08-26 14:47:08

“‘It’s time to stop leading ALL working adults to believe that owning a home (or condo) is part of the American dream. Many can’t and never will be able to afford their own residence.’”

Since we built enough houses and condos for pretty much anyone that wants one(and about 4 million extra on top of that), I think this statement has it backwards.

It is time for government and sellers to stop trying to keep houses unaffordable to the many that are going to have to be able to buy houses to absorb the excess inventory.

Or perhaps we should work on plugging our trade imbalances that have dirven down wages to the point that a lot of households can’t afford houses or condos at the current prices (which for PHX are below the 100 norm on Case-Shiller).

 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-08-26 17:46:00

“‘Now is an incredible time for potential homebuyer,’ said Sheree Newmeyer of Better Homes and Garden Real Estate/Metro Brokers. ‘The high number on the market have given buyers several to select from, and the prices are incredible.”

Prices are “incredible”?

How would she know? Is she in the construction business?

What is stunning about the Housing Crime Syndicate better known as NAR is that they arbitrarily make these statements without any basis or qualifications.

You realtors really are a clueless bunch of liars.

Comment by Awaiting
2011-08-26 18:39:21

RAL
You’re right, and I so enjoy your posts. Most of the N@R have two monkeys and a yoyo as their grey matter.(in my humble opinion)

 
Comment by GH
2011-08-26 22:27:35

They really mean a great time for a “commission”

 
 
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