Get Down Off The Ladder And Post Your Observations!
A reader asks, “First post-Superbowl open house report: Has open house activity picked up noticeably in your neighborhood?”
“Whats current sentiment amongst sellers and agents?”
A reader posted this web link. “Centex homes on California’s Central Coast are now offering $100,000 incentives - very interesting.”
From the ad, “Get down off the ladder. Put away the calculator, don’t miss your chance to buy a Centex home in one of our Central Coast neighborhoods and save $20,000 to $100,000 on the base price depending on the location. So why not leave the gutters alone, you are going to be moving anyway?”
Well, I noted that ocrealestatefinder.com now has a whopping 15,200 new listings. There was about 13000 in early Jan. One of the days there were actually 1000 new additions. Strangely enough, there were like a 100 new ones in Newport Coast.
On other notes…it seems that only 10% of the locals can afford a median house in OC. The price of 700K requires a 170K income considering a 20% down and 30 yr fixed. Go to ocrealestatefinder.com and check the articles…
10% thats nuts…
JF
Oops not ‘new’ listings per se but now ‘totaling’ rather.Probably like 2500 ‘new’ listings but thats a guess…
Johnny, you are right. OC is NOT immune from the bubble. Here are stats for the market in Laguna Beach as of 2/3/06. It looks like high-end resort areas are not going to be spared as some posters have suggested. There have been 13 new SFR listing from 2/3/06 till today. There have been 3 new Condo listings. There are now a total of 223 properties listed in Laguna Beach. 65 properties have come on the market in the last month. 36 in the last 2 weeks. Could get interesting!!!
Laguna Beach Homes and Laguna Beach Real Estate Market Conditions.
MARKET UPDATE
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES:
Today there are 164 active Single Family Home listings on the market.
Average days on market. 90
The lowest active price is $449,876. High being $26,500,000.
Out of the 164 active listings, 47 have shown price reductions since their original list date. Or About 29%
20 “Single Family Homes” have “sold” in the last 30 days.
The Average sale price was $2,051,350 or $761.00 Per Square Foot.
18 Of the 20 “Single Family Homes” sold, had price reductions. Or about 90%
Average days to sell the property 69
Month’s worth of inventory, if no more homes come onto the market. 8.2
CONDOMINIUMS:
In the “Condo” market, there are 17 Active properties
Average days on the market. 133
The lowest active price is $570,000. High being $3,900,000.
Out of the 17 active listings, 4 have shown price reductions since their original list date. Or about 24%
3 “Condos” have “sold” in the last 30 days.
The average sale price for a “Condo” was $1,291,333 or $454.00 Per Square Foot.
1 Of the 3 properties sold, had price reductions. Or about 33%
Average days to sell. 56
Month’s worth of inventory, if no more homes come onto the market. 5.7
8.2 months of inventory!
Enough Said!
One other thing that’s amazing is how may homes (29%) have price reductions. I don’t know the trend stats on this, but it seems high to me.
Another interesting item: I saw one listing that dropped their price over the last months from $10.5 million to it’s current price of $7.9 million. A $2.6 mil haircut! That has to hurt, and it’s still on the market!
Centex is offering $150,000 off Sticker Price in Sacramento today! Do I hear a $200,000 discount coming….
Bellevue, WA: Few homes moving. Realtors are now conceding that “SFH prices are gliding slowly, due to affordability issues.” A recent open house visit at a condo offered more reassuring realtor talk: “Townhomes are a sure bet in this area. It’s the only thing that first time buyers can afford, so the prices will keep going up.”
Despite all the criticism of zillow.com, I like it for my neighborhood. It shows a very nice peak last November, with prices already down 4% in 30 days. That’s $20k, or 1.5 years rent.
Zillow is showing ongoing increase in prices in San Luis Obispo itself, probably because the median SFH price increased here for Nov/Dec. It did fall nearly 12% for the county as a whole, though, so the traditionally more affordable North and South county areas are starting to struggle, I think.
Even in San Luis itself, the pattern of sales was bimodal, with most purchases happening in either the 1 million-plus range or in the 550-600k range. I don’t acutally know this, but shouldn’t sales in a “normal” real estate market show an essentially normal distribution centered around the median? If so, it looks like the sales indicate that the very wealthy are continuing to buy, while the working people are straining to get into the cheapest SFHs available (anything in town under 500k is either a mobile home or a condo). This does not seem like a healthy market to me, or one that it likely to be able to sustain these prices.
It’s the only thing that first time buyers can afford, so the prices will keep going up.
What an absurd statement. If prices keep going up, won’t that make them unaffordable to first time buyers?
No, you see when prices go up, it makes prices go down, which will make prices go up. And THAT’s why it’s a sure bet.
God some people are so thick.
I heard a radio ad for Centex 12 sale here in Washington (near Seattle) for the first time. Not sure what the discount is. The web site does not have any info. I may drive by later.
make that 12 hours sale
In terms of local open house observations, there was an open house in our neighborhood last Tuesday. This was the first middle-of-the-week sign I’d seen in the neighborhood. There didn’t seem to be any traffic, but then I only passed by a couple of times going to and from work. I don’t know if this means much in terms of a weakening market, but it certainly does not suggest that sales are great.
In terms of actual data, a local realtor has a posting from 2-10-06 on realty times saying that DOM have doubled. As previously mentioned, the sales data I have seen still looks good for San Luis itself, but then sales are a lagging indicator.
man, does that $100,000 centex lady ever looked stressed.
On one street near me in Dallas (1940s and 1950s built ranch houses on half acre to acre lots) - 5 houses in a row for sale. Now that’s something I haven’t seen since the 80s.
Here in SD I saw an ad today for $30,000 incentive through the end of February, $15,000 for upgrages and $15,000 from their mortgage company, I believe it was Ryland or Richmond. I also saw a “interest rate buydown” on a condo conversion, $200 per month…I guess for some it really is the monthly payment, not the total cost.
LMAO! Listening to my local RE radio talk show. There are on location at a Lennar home site. They are begging people to come out. LOL. The Lennar spokeman stated “Bring you realtor, we know the market has changed and we will work with realtors. We have MANY finished and unsold homes. So please come on out. There are no waiting lists”.
Wow. That’s awesome.
At least no waiting lists on the BUYER’s side…
Ho-hum. The Centex 12-hour sales are about as exciting as a sale at Macy’s. If you miss it, big deal, there will be another one in two weeks.
what that centex add doesnt say is the price for the homes in san luis obispo start at 1.2 million beautiful homes on 1 acre of land,the ones in nipomo are 1 million also beautiful, and that the homes in atascadero are 500k, built over an old settlers graveyard they actually moved the graves to build these tract homes. central coast real estate is sky high,but the inventory is increasing,and i am seeing prices drop..i plan to buy my central coast home on the courthouse steps in the next 6-15 months….the speculators out here are going to get slaughtered,once there equity gets wiped out in la and san fran,there second home on the central coast will be to expensive to keep up,thus fire sale on the couthouse steps….
I’ll meet you there in a few years. I would love to steal a nice Cambria weekend home!
I am with you on that. I have been following the inventory numbers since November, and they are up 20%. It will take a few months for the speculators to get nervous. Also, I think the number of parents “investing” in a SLO home while their kid is at Cal Poly will decline, if they think the market has peaked, and they stand to lose equity over the next four years.
I’m with you. The inventory in the county is up 20%. But as someone mentioned further down, it will be many, many months before the sellers will appreciate the perfect storm that has been created.
built over an old settlers graveyard they actually moved the graves to build these tract homes.
Or did they? Don’t dig a hole for a swimming pool…
Can you say Poltergiest 2006!
I was at a bar in downtown Seattle last night, and ended up sitting next to an RE agent in his mid-50’s. He’d been around a bit, so I asked him how the market is doing. He said without hesitation that it is definitely slowing down in Seattle, (he then looked over his shoulder so that nobody else could hear his negative comments - his own admission). This is the very first Seattle Realtor I’ve heard take a pessimistic view since the early 90’s. He expected a flat and/or declining market for 5-6 years as “wages need to rise to justify these higher prices and interest rates.”
Perfect.
Me and the better half were cruising Alki (West Seattle), up for a quicky get-away from Santa Barbara.
By accident, came across an Open House at 4:30pm FRIDAY NIGHT!!
What’s up with that??? It was listed at $879k but NO ONE, but us around. Decided to just take a flyer instead of going inside and getting cornered by the realtor.
Seemed like a fairly decent price for the waterview that it had… but I suspect it will still be on the market 6 months from now.
Agreed. Took my son to his basketball game today and there were two open houses on the way. One in my neighborhood and the other near the middle school he played at in Snohomish. Didn’t see this a few months ago.
Went to a few open houses last week in the ‘W’ towns of Fairfield, CT. They were active for a superbowl Sunday!
Demand still seems high for quality homes, supply is unusually low. Perhaps over the next few weeks things will change. Perhaps not.
I just recieved th L.A Times in OC Calif and it was by far the largest I have ever seen. Over half of the news paper was RE .
The Homes advertising section in the today’s Westside edition was 144 pages. I don’t ever remember it being so thick. Of course, the properties listed under $600K are probably about 5-10% of the entire section.
South Bay in Los Angeles county is still in full bubble mode. Listings have increased since fall, but no sharp after-superbowl spike. However, buyers are out in force. Every open house I’ve been to has had visitors other myself while I was there.
Every agent I contacted acted like they were doing me a favor. A sure sign that they believe it’s a seller’s market. I was very angered by their behavior.
One agent named Ruth looked at me like I was scum. She was sitting with legs spread in the living room talking on her cell. She saw me walk into the open house and after I entered the door she didn’t even look at me. She just kept yapping away on her cell. Ridiculous.
I toured this 3000 sq ft lot with two miniuature two bed one baths with no yard and the side wall covered in graffitti (you heard me, GRAFFITTI!). I grabbed a flier and as I walked out the door she burped $590,000 and continued with her cell conversation.
As if her behavior wasn’t bad enough, they actually wanted more than half a million dollars for those shacks. How can anyone still not believe we’re in a bubble.
Example number 2. Saw a house on a pretty big lot. It was a two bed one bath built in the ’20s. They had an open house, but the doors were locked and there was no one there, hmmm. Side gates were open so my brother and I walked around it.
We were floored. There was trash and rubble inside and out. It was painted a puke peach, but they hadn’t taken the trouble to use painting tape or take any precautions with their painting. They painted over the edges of the front door, the porch light, even the exposed electrical wires and the phone hub. They converted the back yard into a quasi covered living room, but they didn’t remove the siding from the original rear wall. There was also a curious little feature: a wall that divided that back yard. In other words, from the outside of the house you cannot go from one side of the yard to the other. You must walk around the front.
Old carpets. No closet doors. Exposed electrical wires, holes, and poor construction everywhere. A house in a complete state of disrepair and every fix they did was slipshod and screamed “we don’t care.” Truly frightening.
That’s not the best part. We called the number on the sign and after five rings a man answered who seemed to be either drunk or just waking up. He was rude and eager to get us off the phone. Oh and by the way, the price is $429,000. Just lovely. I found their greed offensive.
I do not wish people ill. In this case, I would not even need to, they are setting themselves up with their own greed.
King Cheese,
Thanks for the big laffs in your description - “puke peach” - that was hysterical. I picked up a flyer while jogging last weekend for a townhouse in WLA, didn’t say how many bedrooms, but it’s on Stoner avenue, across from Stoner park, which is frequented by gang members who regularly tag the walls and sidewalks w/graffiti, and right next to the townhouse is a densely populated apartment building, in which many of the gang members live, no doubt, along with their very large families that park their broken down cars on the lawn, and leave old mattresses/furniture on the sidewalk. The price of the townhouse is $750k.
chiphla,
I took over a 3 bedroom 1700 sq foot townhouse from a coworker in !994 soon after the earthquake (wrap around I held title mortgage still was in his name) on Granville 2 doors down from Stoner Park .He couldn’t sell it and had paid $300,000 in 1990. I took over what he owed which was $230,000 .Wound up giving it back to him in 1996 because of things he had failed to disclose (windows didn’t fit, leaks in enclosed patio,crazy neighbors ,not built to add central air etc…) I had to do the wraparound because my credit was not great and no liar loans available as now.Area was definately marginal .It’s amazing that the prices are 3 times as much now in that area. This craziness is going to have to stop in L>A soon I just can’t imagine how it can continue.
I think RE west of the 405 in LA will be the last to go. The areas I’m monitoring are Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Diego, and the central valley. These will go first. Regarding the South Bay keep in mind Nissan is relocating to TN, a move that could be followed by the other Asian Automakers in the area. Nissan employed 1800 employees with Avg salary of $87K. I am renter in the South Bay fortunately with a great place, good landlord and reasonable rent. If you are looking to own here Patience will be a virtue.
I miss the Centex ad featuring a young lady stuffing her face with an oversized piece of cake. Binge and purge. Someone needs to tell this lady its time to purge.
BTW this is the listing for that agent named Ruth:
http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListing.asp?snum=7&mlsttl=&frm=byzip&pgnum=1&mls=xmls&js=on&target=&ct=&st=&sbint=&sbls=&sblo=&stype=&zp=90744&areaid=90744&mnsqft=&fid=so&vtsort=&mnprice=0&mxprice=99999999&mnbed=2&mnbath=0&typ=4&poe=realtor&x=13&y=10&sid=06202768E0CDC&snumxlid=1055507353&lnksrc=00001
KingCheese-
In Wilmington what did you expect. I was wondering where you were looking when you described the second property in South Bay it sounded like you were on the darkside of Torrance where that kind of stuff is standard par for the course. Believe it or not I haveseen worse.
What’s really bad about that is that the L.A. Times predicts that raunchy neighborhoodslike that are going to see an even greater appreciation between now and June.
mrincomestream,
It pains me to agree with the LA Times, but I do. I am not certain of this, but the argument that lower income levels are lagging in the housing bubble is probably true. While prices in upscale neighborhoods are falling, poor areas are booming blindly.
Yahoo and Zillow.com have homes selling for well over 500k. Summer of ‘05 there were almost no SFH close to 500k. I do not understand how they are getting the financing. Even with good credit, buyers need an outrageous appraisal to get a loan. There’s something a bit off here.
What I do know is that in poor areas of south LA county, there is not an inkling of a bubble burst. Everyone is talking about how much more their house is going to be worth in a year, and we all know what that means.
If this is as deeply psychologically ingrained as it seems then the only thing capable of popping the bubble will be people defaulting. People may hold on until the absolute last minute if they really, truly believe that any downturn is just a temporary blip on the road to riches.
So people take homes off the market, then put them back on, testing the waters, waiting, the inventory only slowly growing, until the ARMs reset and people are forced to bail. Sort of like a skinny guy showing off at the gym, lifting too much out of pride, refusing to slowly bring it down until his arms give and he crushes his ribs.
KirH…..you have a good point. People will only sell when they absolutely have to i.e. when they run out of cash.
I know people who own big SUVs and when gas prices went above $3, they put the gas bill on the credit card and continued driving normally. It is only when they maxed out the credit card, did they start driving less.
Well duh, if the credit card works they still have money!
That’s like stopping eating at a buffet just because you’re full!
Crazy talk.
I’ve mentioned here earlier how I toured some model homes over here in Irvine last week…more potential buyers walking around than I expected. Maybe they were paid by the homebuilder…ha ha
Open houses for resales seem much quieter. In our Irvine condo tract DOM seem to average 2-3 months. But, stuff will still sell if it’s priced right and shows nice. I’ve noticed that places of lower quality and relatively high asking prices won’t sell.
P.S. King_Cheese, where are you looking in the South Bay? Those lower price points are probably still bubbly…I’ve noticed higher price points (800k-1M) sitting longer with many price reductions.
It’s funny they should mention gutters. In Orange County, Florida (where I have about 20 acres, but no home), almost all new houses have NO GUTTERS! Most homeowners realize they need them only a few months after they move in….
If I ever buy a SFH again I think I’ll have it custom built. Doubly so if it is in a high-risk area like the Gulf Coast (hurricanes) or California (earthquakes). I don’t trust spec builders to do the right thing.
For instance, the new (2003) condo building I live in just had the siding on the entire building removed and replaced because there was a leak above each window. Why should I believe that they got other things right, like the plumbing, gas lines, roof, etc? I talked to the building manager and he basically said he’d never buy there knowing what he knows. Thank goodness I rent there.
Err… no. You have that backwards. Most homes do not need gutters, except perhaps over a doorway. Gutters are a pain in the ass to maintain, and unless you live in a place where it rains constantly they are a waste of money.
During the summer in Central Florida, it does rain almost constantly.
ockurt,
I’m looking Wilmington, CA 90744. This is poor area. There is significant crime, industrial activity, and it is surrounded by refineries.
These homes in Irvine would be priced much much higher.
King_Cheese, yeah I know where that is. My dad worked at the Shell Oil facility there for many years. Definitely a downtrodden area…you probably aren’t dealing with any “cream of the crop” r/e agents there!
Anyway, there was a good article in the LA Times a couple of weeks back talking about the “ghettos” around the LA area still being “bubbly” as they are playing catch-up.
Repeat after me:
“Going to open houses only enables the enabler.”
“I am feeding an addiction by attending open houses.”
“I need to stop myself from attending open house until, at the minimum, October of ‘06.”
“I need to realize that I am tempting myself by attending open houses, and I might end up making a truly moronic decision to buy based on a false perception of a ‘deal’, that will only end up being a ‘falling knife’.”
“I will not enable the enablers…I will not enable the enablers…”
I go to open houses because I am a loan Officer, I get business contacts and end up with clients. IT IS HARD F@@@ING WORK. To listen to the realtors blah, blah, blah. The clients are my concern to the extent of getting them the loan they want. If they want a NEG AM 1.0% start rate and their credit is good - NO PROBLEM! I am not going to tell them what I think. I believe there is an enormous bubble, but if I am wrong and we have another year or 2 of rising prices. I may be liable for having discouraged a borrower from maximum profits. I can only tell the borrower what they can get - If a borrower says something stupid like “I want an IO payment” I will certainly show the 2 year Arm first (I get paid more).
Disagree… you must know the state of the market, which you cannot do by sticking your head in the sand.
There is no substitute for being able to detect the stench of arrogance or desperation on the realtors and determine the zeitgeist of the market.
Auction Heaven, you are right…going to open houses is an addiction…should I quit cold turkey or just do it slowly…maybe just attend an open house once a month?
Addiction yes. I think I need a patch.
“you are right…going to open houses is an addiction…should I quit cold turkey or just do it slowly…maybe just attend an open house once a month? :)”
“Addiction yes. I think I need a patch.”
Here are some things to do instead of going to open houses.
1) Sell everything you don’t need on Ebay.
Look for ways to make extra money that will go towards your soon to be large cash downpayment.
2) Pay off all existing debts over the summer.
3) Take the money you earn and invest it in a CD that pays well, and won’t mature for at least 6 months to a year.
4) Make your wife, and everyone within screaming distance, come here and read Ben’s Blog.
5) Know that none of these resale home owners are going to lower their ridiculous prices for many, many months. First small significant reductions will commence in August. And those will be small.
6) Understand that 50% price cuts will happen, because they simply have to. The perfect storm is here, but many residents have decided to ‘wait it out’. Patience.
7) The media is still touting the ‘white hot housing market’ (Nightline, last night.)
9) Pay close attetion to inventory increases. Following inventory doesn’t require you to get in a car, waste gas, and get frustrated at open houses.
10) SAVE, SAVE, SAVE. SELL, SELL, SELL. WATCH, WATCH, WATCH.
Remember- speculators JUST left the market in September. That was only a few months ago. Homeowners aren’t going to realize that speculation was what created the artificial paper gains in their home- for months.
11) Find something else to do while saving. Surfing. Taking a class. Getting back in shape. Learning a new skill. Playing a sport. Dating. Basket weaving. Creating a new goal, while watching the inventory continue to grow, is helpful because it distracts you.
So, what am I doing?
I’ve made $4,000 in one month, selling stuff from my wife and I’s apartment on Ebay. You’d be amazed what someone in Hong Kong will pay for a pair of jeans. Sold four pairs of my wife’s old jeans to a guy in HK for $200. He turned around- in Hong Kong- and sold them for $400.
The only things we’re going to have left in our apartment when I’m done is a bed, a couch, and a chair. Maybe some dishes.
It’s all about saving for the downpayment.
Shopping for a home comes much, much later.
Yes - the clutter is an encumbrance when it comes to moving to a cheaper, better rental, too!
Dating? Dating sucks right now. All I meet are single, attractive, professional women who have recently bought condos or homes.
Spending all thier money decorating it and oblivious to the terms of their IO/ARM loans.
I won’t sign up for that kind of pain and I have a hard time with not telling them that they are screwed (trapped) for the next 10 years.
I make great cabbage, have alot of cash, but am not interested in buying a house or condo. I track the bubble because it’s ruining my dating life. Any hot, single women on this board?
Just grabbed the local San Diego Union Tribune. There is a fat 26 page advertising supplement (using a slightly different font) full of “articles” and housing ads, not to mention the open house and housing section of the classifieds. Many of the other ads in the paper are for home remodelling and furniture. You can bet the paper doesn’t want the bubble to burst but would they omit stories simply to protect their revenue? Who knows. But the non-profit Voice of San Diego seems to have a few articles a week on the housing bubble, not so much in the UT.
This article points out that many of the reports writing about the real estate situation are homeowners themselves so they have an additional denial incentive. On CNBC the analysts have to state what kind of stock they own due to conflict of interest concerns. If a reporter just bought a McMansion with zero down using a jumbo I/O option ARM you will never know it.
So, in the interests of tranparency, maybe we should demand that journalists writing about real estate divulge their real estate situation at the beginning of an article. Celebrities expect that some loss of privacy comes with the territory. I’d argue journalists have a much more profound impact on our lives.
The newspaper business as we know it is dying due to the effect of Craigslist on their classifieds revenue stream. This bubble is the only thing paying the rent/ink bill. A positive outcome of the expected economic meltdown will be the death of the local news monopolies, blockbuster videos, the MLS monopoly, etc. Penny pinching leads to efficiency and eventually progress.
Paragraph two above. Reports = reporters. I’ll donate to the tip jar as soon as we get a preview button
South Bay So. Cal inventory is rising slowly and is at November ‘05 levels. I am seeing some price reductions, about 5-7% so far. I am speaking mostly about Rancho PV, PV Estates, Rolling Hills Estates. I have MLS access so I can see for myself what’s going on and do not have to rely on realtor spin.
Yeah, I’m waiting for that 20 to 30% drop in those areas, I’m still kicking myself for not picking up one on Margerite Dr. during the last market crash during the 90’s for 1 mil overlooking the ocean. At the time I thought it was overpriced probably goes for 5 to 6 mil now.
WLA near the Marina 90094 - Went to some open houses before the game. suprisingly active, some new listings with prices per sq. ft. higher than last fall. Looks like some very small reductions on stale listings
Flyer from the local Prudential real estate agenet left under my truck’s windshield wiper at the Town Center mall in Boca Raton, FL:
Consumer Awareness Hotlines Keep You Updated About Changing Local Real Estate Market
Boca Raton - Don’t make the mistake of 2005 thinking! Last year, there were many buyers competing for a limited number of homes available for purchase. The 2006 local real estate market is undergoing a market correction. Now, the inventory of homes for sale is swiftly growing. The time it takes to sell a home is increasing. Thre are price adjustments being made - it is no longer a seller’s market. Whether buying or selling, there are specific
steps you can take to maximize your real estate transaction.
Sellers: Simply listing your home for sale is no longer enough. Effective marketing is essential in the sale of your property… To learn more call 1-800-XXX-YYYY anytime, 24 hours a day, to hear a Free Recorded Consumer Awareness Message. Plus, find out how to get the FREE report “How to Sell Your Home Fast & For Top Dollar In Our Changing Real Estate Market.”
Buyers: Have you been waiting for the market to change before buying your dream home? Your wait is over! With interest rates remaining low and the inventory of homes for sale climbing you have greater buying power with more opportunities. To learn more, call… to hear a (free message). Plus, find out how to get the FREE report “Eight Simple Steps to Buying a Boca Raton Home for Thousands of Dollars Below Fair Market Value.”
My oh my, how things have changed in 6 mos. In good ol’ Boca they were screaming last year that prices never go down– ‘Better get in and buy before you get locked out forever!’ LOL
Homes in the Sunset District of San Francisco are down from last summer and there is one about two blocks from wheer I live (I rent)which has been on the market since Nov. I’t’s been reduced by $10,000 which is amazing since two years ago you would have had to bid at least ten grand over the asking price to have even the slightest chance at getting the home.
went to several open houses in Forest HIlls (Queens) New York last weekend. ALL of them were VACANT
Anyone have any insights on Albuquerque? It seems that inventory there is pretty stable and the median is rising. Flippers at work or ?
Albuquerque housingtracker
Strangely enough in San Diego I am not noticing a lot of activity either way. I just don’t see the volume of resale homes I was seeing last fall. This is both North Park where I live, and Sabre Springs where I have a rental.
I am seeing lots of the sign twirlers but still not overwhelming.
I know the inventory is there according to the MLS, but I wonder why I’m not seeing it?
There is also LOTS of unfinished downtown / near downtown condos coming in 2006.
Oh yeah, one more thing… I did see a standard realtor open house sign with “REDUCED REDUCED REDUCED” printed on a standard 8.5×11 piece of paper and pasted in middle of the sign.
checked ventura cty 200k to 400k and it comes up with about 30% of all listings have a price reduction.also alot of homes in decent hoods in the sf valley are around 500k and even a few in the 400.havent seen that in a while
Inventory increasing at record pace in Sarasota/Bradenton market. I actually drove through a community by accident on Friday since a road I normally take home from work was closed. Nice neighborhood that I was not even aware of filled with your typical FL house (less than 5 years old) which I would guess are in the $400k-$500k range. Every 5th house had a ‘For Sale’ sign……
I’ve been tracking 3bed/2bath houses in the $300-$400k range in the area since July. July inventory was 215. As of today it was 1340……
Bottomfeeder. Albuquerque is much less likely to have any downturn. I have just moved from looney land (SF area) to there. We just purchased a beautiful home in the NE area from a distressed owner. They spent too much money upgrading the home and then had to sell quickly (got 50K under current market price). I have been the biggest bubblehead you could see the last 3 yrs in CA. We went through 4 realtors before finding one that got things done. Our agent was awesome. One of the realtors stated that the new home developers put in the clause of no flipping for at least 12 months to reduce the crap that had happened in Phoenix and LV. If someone is truly interested in living in ABQ (great area as compared to SF Bay), look in the NE newer homes. The Rio Grande only has a few roads over it and becomes a choke point for people going to work and most of the new sprawl is out west and the infrastructure is not all the way in. I also saw a lot of homes out there and felt that the quality is lacking in relations to the rate they are putting them up. Most of the crime is in the SE part (and less expensive areas). Closer to the mountains (on the east, the safer and better neighborhoods). If you would like more info, put a posting and I can share more.
Need to leave ca
I’m interested in vistiting with you offline about NM.
Here’s the only living human who’s going to lose money on a house in LA so far. LOL
http://losangeles.craigslist.org/rfs/133117721.html
And about the only one who is being honest. The party’s over and for those stuck with homes they thought they could flip???Good luck. My brother’s wife’s father was up around 70 grand for property he picked up in late 2004 in San Diego. I told him to DUMP it last Oct. when there were still buyers. Did he do it? Nope.
Honest? How about audacious. He’s a flipper who got stuck, and he still has delusions of not losing anything by asking >10% over what he paid for it just over a year ago.
If he wants to get rid of it, he needs to take his lumps and ask $205K for that piece of crap.
txchick57 - how would you want to talk offline. you can email me at ambell1@sbcglobal.net. Same for bottomfeeder
Tara is going to need a lot of prayers. She will be more than just broke. Another FB bites the dust. Maybe someone will pay her $100K in cash for that $HITBOX, and let her go BK for the rest. What do you think?
Above comment based upon the craiglist posting by txchick57. Poor girl in big trouble. Probably thought she can’t lose, and was suckered by whoever.
Driving north of DIA on I-25 between Fort Collins and Wellington, Colorado, I saw a sign reading “Platted subdivision for sale”. It looked like they started construction on some roads and then just packed up and left. Anyone know how things are in northern Colorado?
It was bound to happen… A sign that the market is turning…
On wednesday, I received a REO listing, then on Thursday I received another REO listing… None in years, then 2 in 2 days…
I was also talking with another realtor, who is in Riverside California, he has received 4 REO listings within the last month.
Open house down the street (Irvine, CA) in our condo tract. Totally dead. I just see the agent’s signs every weekend and that’s it. They are a bit over-priced though, probably need to drop it another 10k to get it to move. DOM has to be at least 60.
I talked to a RE friend of mine recently here in the Midwest. She said that people who have purchased in the last couple of years and now who must sell (job transfer, loss of income, etc.) are having to bring checks to closing. Ouch!
Saw something new in my neighborhood (Chino Hills, CA) last week: A home-made sign, four lines written in black marker on a piece of yellow posterboard:
“4 BR 3 BA”
“$584,000″
“909-___-____”
“NO AGENTS!”
Ha! Places in my neighboorhood have been going in the high $600’s lately. These people can’t even afford an FSBO sign from Home Depot, eh?
I’m more than half tempted to resort to guerilla warfare and scribble in a ‘new price’ on that sign tonight. How about $484K?
mc, that would be funny. Sounds like a desperate “investor” to me.
Reading Craigslist provides a whole new source of entertainment… Use the search words “desperate” “reduced” or “must sell”…
Found this gem. Really made me laugh out loud.
http://losangeles.craigslist.org/rfs/133196784.html
Just a thought - I hope whoever posted the comment at the bottom of the listing is just a frustrated buyer and not one of us “in the know”; those who actually read these blogs. That could show a real turn in the attitudes of sheople out there.
Hysterical! I spit Diet Coke all over the monitor!
Darn, CL removed it.
Purchased last August for $375,000, after a coat of paint and some new wiring and fixtures I figured I could make a QUARTER OF A MILLION DOLLARS in pure profit and then retire to Fiji, or Salt Lake City. After reality hit, I reduced the asking price by $40,000 to only clear about $190,000. That’s just slightly over a 50% markup. That’s not unreasonable, is it? I know there’s no parking, but hey, there’s an intercom. At least you don’t have to yell all through the vast, expansive 750 sq. ft, 2BR spread just to get someone to pick up the Goddamn phone. Now will someone please HAND ME MY CRACK PIPE! I think I’m starting to come down.
is still there.
chiphxla,
Regarding your post about townhouse on Stoner in West LA
In 1994 soon after the earthquake I did a wrap around (I took title he held mortgage I paid him) with someone I worked with for a 3 bedroom townhouse he owned on Granville about 2 doors down from Stoner park.He had paid $300,000 in 1990 and couldn’t sell it in 1994 My credit was not great and back then no liar loans were available .The selling price to me was $230,000 which is what his motgage was for. I wound up giving back the place to him in 1996 since he had neglected to tell me all the problems with the unit(windows that didn’t fit,crazy neighbors,leaks in enclose porch etc…That area is a very marginal neighborhood and it is just amazing the prices they are asking and maybe even getting.Amazing that 10 years later I could have probably sold for triple the price.It is scary how ridiculous prices have gotten here .
granville and stoner are ok. it gets a little funky just west of there. lots of illegals and such.
Sunday observations from Monterey/Pacific grove:
Went out for a Sunday drive. Saw about 10 places for sale. Low price around $650K for cottages, many below $800K. One “offered at $815K.” This is about $100K below the typical asking price last summer.
Did anyone save the funny craigslist posting that was removed. I wanted a good laugh and it was removed.
Sunday observations from Irvine (Orange County, Ca):
I closely monitor an area of Irvine known as Woodbridge/Turtle Rock.
Yesterday afternoon (Sunday) there were “for Sale” signs on almost
every corner thru the Woodbridge loop. In Turtle Rock, a fair
number of signs also.
Sellers agents are anxious. None of the smug, arrogant, take-it-or-leave-it attitude of 18 months ago.
Some price reductions. One very nice higher end house in
Turtle Rock has been on the market since 9-24-05 (original MLS S412898, original ask= $3.2mm). As of yesterday price reduced
to ~$3mm (new MLS S422448). What’s interesting about the
reduction is that I had a lengthly conversation with the sellers
agent during the 1st week of last December and she insisted
that the buyer “will never cut his price”. Well, guess what…
I’m not impressed by these price reductions, which are often less than 5%.
3% off the asking price on a property that’s 50% overpriced? I’ll pass.
No question about that. Let’s see what happens in the next
few months… 5% - 5% - 5%… ??
Please tell me what you think. I work with a guy who bought in Surprise, Az. one year ago. He decided to put the house on the market, and is telling me he is going to make 190,000 profit. We made a bet about 6 months ago. I said housing would come down 30% or more, he says no way. Also he is going to take his “profit” and buy in N. Carolina. I know I am all over the place here, but I haven’t seen a glut of rentals in the Covina, Ca area. I am currently paying 1500 a month. I sold in Novermber 04, took my 142,000 and put it in bank. Waiting for houses here to go down. Still in the area of 500,000 for a 3 bed/2bath. Any comments?
ps. Another co-worker just bought a house in Buckeye, AZ.
Patricia - still wait for LA - Covina would be way overpriced. keep your $142,000 liquid to ‘help’ the FBers who are losing their A$$es. Good for you for selling and banking. One of the smart ones. Your friend in AZ is really in for a ’surprise’. What was the prize for the bet. The winner will buy the loser dinner (as “surprise will be flat broke?). Good luck to you.
Hey Everyone,
Have been noticing something interesting in San Diego.
Lots of real-estate related commercials (realtors, condo-sellers)….
I NEVER saw this in San Diego until this point about a week or 2 ago. Smells like desperation to me…
Renting has never been so exciting. (Me and my wife are currently paying the same amount of rent we were 4 years ago for a much nicer apartment)