What Does A Parent Tell An 18 Year Old?
Readers suggested a topic on family and planning for the future. “So…….what does a parent tell an 18 year old about what she should do to get ready for the future? I have no idea what to tell her. An education is a major investment, and if the present trends continue, a total crap shoot on whether that investment will break even, much less give her any kind of advantage over some $10/day guy in Bangalore or Harbin. Especially when she doesn’t have any idea on what to major in.”
“And knowing her, college will be a waste of time/money if she goes, and doesn’t find a subject/career path that interests her. And doing math and science just for the sake of taking them, is not a great motivator for her. Her mom, an RN, is pushing the nursing route. She isn’t that interested, and it seems to me that that’s what everybody and their brother is working towards. In 5 years, we are going to be overrun by ‘health care professionals.’”
“Depression set in this week, when she saw all her friends heading off to college (blissfully unaware on how hard it is going to be to pay back $80-100K in student loans). That, and working two shifts at the ‘casual eating establishment’ and taking home exactly 30 bucks.”
“I never had the remote possibility of going to college, so I have no idea what to tell her. I see this country going into Banana Republic mode, if present trends continue (and no evidence to indicate that they are)…….maybe that’s just the natural order of things. To me, there’s a lot to be said for staying out of hock, and living in a bunker for the next ten years, until the dust settles.”
A reply, “She’s 18 years old. I don’t think she has to decide right now what to do with the rest of her life. The fact that she’s working is a good sign, even if it’s not a great job. Not many 18-year-olds have great jobs, nor should they. Not many people start out at the top. Ultimately, I think many more young people are going to going to go to college part-time while holding a job. Makes a lot more sense financially than starting out adulthood deep in debt.”
Another said, “I had 56 different jobs by age 26, at which time I sold my newer RX-7 sports car, abandoned my lease on a house on the boardwalk in Newport Beach, CA, and got serious about education. Some of us need time to explore. Result of AA, BA, MBA and two successful careers. And huge loans that took years to pay off. Retired at 53.”
“Worked out just fine. In this economy, student loans seem very, very risky. Guess I got lucky, but I was 5-10 years late in being employable anywhere that included a pension.”
Capital Media Services . “Most of Arizona’s metropolitan areas lagged behind the rest of the country in income growth between 2009 and 2010, a report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed. But particularly telling is that the earnings component — the amount of change due solely to what people were bringing home in their paychecks — was far below the rest of the nation.”
“Dennis Hoffman of the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University said most troubling is the attitude of consumers. ‘We’ve got confidence wounded and barely breathing,’ he said. And that was before the nation’s credit rating was downgraded and the markets took a beating. ‘Now we’re just taking a stick and just jabbing it,’ Hoffman said. ‘It’s worrisome.’”
“Marshall Vest of the Eller College of Management at the University of Arizona, said he also had hoped that the 2010 figures would be the bottom, with recovery beginning late in the year. ‘Clearly, the odds of recession have increased,’ he said.”
“Hoffman zeroed in on the poor earnings numbers. ‘Part of those lost earnings could be people that just left,’ he said, especially undocumented workers. He acknowledged that the report reflects what might be called ‘old news which confirms what everybody knew’ about the state’s economy for the last two years. ‘The real interesting thing is going to be what this is going to look like 12 months from today,’ Hoffman continued.”
“‘Any reasonable economic forecast had some improvement baked in the cake in 2011 and accelerating in 2012 and accelerating (again) in 2013,’ he explained. But he said the news of the last three to four weeks makes him doubt that. ‘I fear that we’ve stalled out here,’ Hoffman said.”
The Coeur d’Alene Press. “Living situations could be improving for Kootenai County families, according to numbers reported by a national data collection organization. But they’re probably getting worse, based on indicators from local nonprofits and agencies. Emily Simnitt, spokeswoman for the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare, said the number of folks on food stamps statewide has increased every year since 2008.”
“There were 20,507 individuals on food stamps in Kootenai County at the beginning of this year, Simnitt said, adding that about half of that tends to be children. ‘We know that many people who have been coming in for food stamps in the last few years have never been receiving assistance before, which is directly related to the economic downturn,’ she said.”
The LA Times. “To shield its economy from the fallout of the 2008 financial crisis, Beijing orchestrated a massive economic stimulus. It invested billions in infrastructure projects and encouraged banks to open the credit spigot to fund construction of apartments, office towers and retail centers. The strategy catapulted China past Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy; its growth helped keep the global slump from deepening.”
“But like taking steroids, there were side effects. The burst of credit has fueled inflation, which is proving painful for average Chinese. Soaring prices for pork, vegetables and other staples have authorities worried about the potential for social unrest. So has a property bubble that has put home ownership out of reach of millions, exacerbating the gulf between rich and poor.”
“Meanwhile, the nation’s debt levels have reached new heights. A national audit released in June found outstanding loans to local governments, among the biggest players in the building binge, amounted to $1.65 trillion, or nearly a third of China’s GDP.”
“The big concern inside and outside of China is a so-called hard landing. If Europe and the U.S. fall back into recession and demand for Chinese-made goods declines, Beijing won’t be able to juice its economy like it did the last time around. ‘It’s a lesson on the limits of stimulus. The more you do it, the less and less you’ll get out of it,’ said Patrick Chovanec, a professor at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management in Beijing. ‘You’ve already tapped all the good investments out there. A second time, you’d just be shoveling money out the door…. It will just compound their problems.’”
“The best solution for China, analysts said, is to turn its own citizens into shoppers whose buying power can drive the economy forward. Personal consumption accounts for about 40% of GDP in China, compared with about 70% in the U.S. China’s per capita annual income of $7,600 ranks below Angola and Albania. Although disposable income is rising, most households remain obsessed with saving because the social safety net is so flimsy. Individuals must shoulder most of the expense for their own healthcare, education and retirement.”
“A migrant from central Henan province, Cheng earns $300 a month. He admired the styles on display in the window of the Gap store. But he shops in flea markets instead. ‘The clothes over there cost a tenth of my monthly salary,’ said Cheng, a 22-year-old cellphone salesman, nodding at the multi-story Gap. ‘After I paid for rent and food, I’d have nothing left if I bought something there.’”
From Asia News. “Due to over-production in the auto industry, at the end of this year there will be an excess of 10 million vehicles in China. This is more than the auto production in Japan in the year 2009. Another big problem is the surplus of real estate investment in China, which has reached a 30% bubble. There are 64.5 million vacant apartment units, enough to house 200 million people.”
“In China, an estimated 1,300 people control more than $1 trillion of assets. According to a survey by Western financial institutions, 1.5 percent of Chinese own 45% of bank deposits and 67% of assets. China’s state-owned enterprises enjoy more than 75% of the investment by the country, with more than 2/3 of the country’s fixed assets. During the 2008-2010 global financial and economic crisis, state-owned enterprises obtained more than 90% of the state funds to stimulate the economy. Nevertheless, 80% of China’s corporate profits come from 120,000 private SMEs, and less than 12 of large state-owned enterprises. Only under the conditions of monopoly are several state-owned giants such as Sinopec able to gain huge profits.”
“The Gini coefficient (which measures income inequality) has reached 0.57. In the 1980s, it was only 0.25; in the 1990s, it was 0.39. Now, this coefficient is much higher than the 0.43 of the United States, and 0.37 of India. In China, the people who have average living expenses on the absolute poverty scale of less than $2/day have reached more than half of the entire population of more than 1.3 billion.”
“The most severe problem is the more than three trillion U.S. dollars foreign exchange reserves China has. During the recession, the government should apply a policy of collecting domestic currency in an effort to restrain inflation. The specific approach is very simple: allow converting foreign currency freely on the one hand and on the other hand raise the currency exchange rate. In this way the circulation of the domestic currency on the market will be reduced, and the inflation will naturally decline. But why does the Chinese government continue its stand, and not take such a simple measure? It is due to the difference between bureaucrat-capitalism and democratic politics.”
“From the viewpoint of bureaucratic politics, eliminating inflation is not beneficial for them to continue to earn excess profits. An appreciation of the RMB would make the current expensive housing market in China even more unable to find buyers. The collapse of the housing market in China would be a direct harm to the interests of bureaucratic capitalism. It would be absolutely unacceptable to the bureaucratic capitalist clique in China that is controlling Chinese politics now of course, the Chinese Communist regime that is relying on the support of the capitalists would not accept it either. Politics has become the politics for the capitalists, and already very far from the interests of the average Chinese. This is the root reason that the economic and social problems in China are not solved.”
“The view from the national interest and the Chinese people is completely reversed. Opening the free exchange of currency, and improving the RMB exchange rate, coupled with opening of a fair import market, will control inflation within six months. But, this would make the businessmen with black hearts making money from high prices lose profit. More importantly, the real estate tycoons in China who made a lot of money along with the bureaucratic businessmen in China by forced demolition and relocation of the Chinese citizens, may have to go bankrupt. As a result, China will lose half of its billionaires.”
‘Meanwhile the lowered house prices from the bankruptcy auctions will reduce the number of people who are facing housing hardship to half. In this round of interests confrontation, we can clearly see which kind of government the Chinese Communist Party regime is. It is a political power of the bureaucratic capitalist standing against the people.”
“Due to over-production in the auto industry, at the end of this year there will be an excess of 10 million vehicles in China…”
“A migrant from central Henan province, Cheng (a 22-year-old cellphone salesman) earns $300 a month”
Gee, I wonder why he doesn’t just go and “snap up” one of those unsold cars? Could it be because only the managerial class in China can afford a car?
“The best solution for China, analysts said, is to turn its own citizens into shoppers”
But in order for that to be effective they will need to be well paid, with would end China’s status as “the world’s factory”
Yet another sign of deflation.
Endlessly build cars even though the demand for the cars you build is short by ten million customers.
Something has got to give. Either the customers will have to materialize or the manufacturers will have to cut back.
One or the other.
Or the central gov’t will just buy all the surplus cars and hand them out to various gov’t agencies?
So, let’s see if I got this straight…..
-The automakers transferred their technologies and assembly plants to China, because it was the only “Growth market”…….throwing millions of their employees and suppliers (and customers)under the bus in the process.
-Now, their current customers can’t afford their products, and neither can their new ones. And while giving Chinese manufacturers (and future competitors) massive amounts of technology transfer.
And this is the type of decision we’re paying business leaders six and seven figures to make? What do they call this course in MBA school? “Dumbazz 101″?
“And this is the type of decision we’re paying business leaders six and seven figures to make?”
You get what you pay for and this is proof that these business leaders are underpaid.
If you want to get better business decisions from these business leaders then you will have to pay them more.
Same rule goes for bankers.
/sarc
And this is the type of decision we’re paying business leaders six and seven figures to make? What do they call this course in MBA school? “Dumbazz 101″?
I have a wee bit of first-hand insight on this particular issue.
Back during the 1970s, when I was a University of Michigan student, I noticed that the really bright and talented kids with an interest in business weren’t flocking to auto industry jobs after they graduated. Instead, they were interested in a relatively new industry that was called “computers.”
So, even then, the talent was going elsewhere. Even in the auto industry’s home state of Michigan.
These “analysts” that outfits like the LA Times turn to all the time are really Underwear Gnome economists:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=underwear%20gnome%20economics
‘A business model in which a company may have great offerings, but does not necessarily great profits due to a lack of strategy or how the business is run.’
‘Outlined in an episode of South Park, where gnomes are stealing the town’s underwear. The gnome’s plan is to…
Step One: Collect underwear.
Step Three: Profit.’
Globalism makes no sense, and it never has. It’s a race to the bottom, brought about by elitists that think they should tell us all what’s best for the world and we should shut up and go back to work.
I had the misfortune to come out of college just as the Texas bubble had burst in the 80’s. I had some of these discussions like I saw in the film, The Graduate, where someone tried to tell me the secret for how to make it in the world. I’m not sure any of them were correct. I guess it’s a more complex economic world for young people today, and the only recommendation I would have is to learn to think for yourself, cuz there are a lot of Underwear Gnomes out there who are full of sh@t.
And I recommend that if you think for yourself, you had better keeps those thoughts TO yourself, at least on the job. Speak up and be fired.
Boy, I am not sure what I would say. Perhaps a JC first to find an area of interest. Definitely work at some type of job also. I know I did while in high school. Swept floors in a print shop. Went to a state college, degree in english/education, graduated, never taught and landed in IT. Got there by working nights in a data center doing grunt work. Twenty years later went back to school and got a BSN. Took out loans to finance that. Paid that off. As to the increase in nursing enrollments, I hope they have tried out the field first. Probably be a CNA first. You have to be called to be successful. Many leave the field after several years. Anymore, you need to work in a hospital to get the technical skills and it is a tough environment today. I hear new grads are finding it tough to find an entry level position, so the CNA experience would be a plus. Granted, there are jobs that are not bedside, but in my opinion you need that experience before moving on to other areas, otherwise you will have a definite deficiency in your knowledge. I started in critical care and would not go back even though I enjoyed my time. Hospice is now my world, but it requires nursing experience and life experience to be successful. Very difficult for newbies.
You have to be called to be successful. Many leave the field after several years.
Precisely!
Case in point: A childhood friend now works as a nurse. But she didn’t get there directly.
She and I went to the same public schools. But, unfortunately, her path through public high school was quite different from mine. Our high school was quite good at spotting and grooming kids who were intellectually, artistically, musically, or athletically gifted.
My friend had none of these gifts. So, she was put into classes full of kids who caused discipline problems. And my friend came from a well-behaved family.
Her parents got concerned, especially when they saw her academics slipping. So, they pulled her out of the public high school and sent her to a private Catholic girls school in central PA. The classes were taught by nuns who truly cared about her and her classmates, and she blossomed.
Right after high school, she went off to Marywood, a Catholic college in Allentown, PA. And guess what: She just wasn’t into college.
She dropped out and went to work. After doing that for a few years, she started to get this nagging feeling that she was truly meant to be a nurse. Her mother had been one, so she knew what the call to nursing felt like.
Mom had a heart-to-heart talk with her and basically told her that when it comes to nursing, you really gotta wanna. My friend did.
So, she went back to school, got the necessary credentials, and she’s worked as a nurse ever since.
Many leave the field after several years.
There is another group who leave after 10 years and some who leave after 20 years. I’ve heard this called “nurse burnout”.
That’s a bummer, especially when you’re talking about the kids getting out of high school today. They’re probably going to need to work full-time for about 40 years to have a decent retirement.
What’s interesting about nurse burnout is that you don’t hear much about doctors getting burned out.
Last time I spoke with my friend, she was quite proud of the fact that she’d been a nurse for 26 years. And she wasn’t going anywhere.
Great thread, great post.
I agree with junior college. I think this 18 year old can take liberal arts classes and go for an A.S. while working and staying out of debt.
I will tell you this: I did not want to go to college, so I worked in a factory. After three months or so, I came home crying and depressed. All of my friends were back on Winter Break, and I was punching the time clock and working my fingers to the bone assembling audio gear (32 band graphic equalizer x 2 channels, and I was the guy pushing the fader knobs on). My fingers were literally bleeding all of the time.
Even then, I still needed time to “figure it all out,” so I went to a community college for a year.
It wasn’t the best two years of my life, but I got through it and it really motivated me and gave me a clear picture of what I wanted to do. Of course, you also have to explain to your 18 year old that plans are only plans, and sometimes things change.
Geez, I have no idea what to tell my kids, but if either of them work trades I won’t make them feel inferior about it.
My wife has 3 bros. and they’re all dependent adult children. It’s pathetic. They all failed out of college and have no work skills and smoke pot all the time. I *don’t* want that for my kids.
This 18 year old needs the skills to deal with the New America. My opinion is that these skills will be found less and less in overpriced colleges.
I’m not sure I am making a point…
Well, there’s always the military.
there’s always the military ??
So you can be Fodder for people like Cheney & Rumsfeld ??
You only become fodder if you are in combat. Most people in the military do not experience combat.
Choose a support role rather than a combat role and you will be alright.
There are exceptions to what I have just said but they are few.
Do you really get to choose your role in the military? It seems that in today’s military that they are using civilains to fill non combat roles.
I suppose that if you sign up as a grunt for the Navy or Air Force you won’t see combat in the middle east, but if you join the Marines I believe that it is a given that you will be cannon fodder.
If you join the Navy or the Air Force then you most likely will not be in combat.
The Army and Marines may be quite a different matter, but even then you might not ever see combat.
Remember, it takes a lot of support to put a man into combat. Choose a supporting role instead of a direct role.
Choose a supporting role instead of a direct role ??
Yeah, that’s what the National Guard thought when they enlisted…
With that said, I do get what you are saying combo…
Take it from a guy who did his patriotic duty…. you don’t get to select your task. You get to select your school. That’s ALL.
If you join the Navy or the Air Force then you most likely will not be in combat.
============================
As long as it a small time Libya/Pakistan/Somalia/Yemen type war, you are correct.
If we ever pick a fight with someone with a real military its going to be a real mess.
“They can join the Air Force or join the Corps… ’cause we can’t make it here any more” — James McMurtry
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTW0y6kazWM&feature=related
(yes, it is Larry McMurtry’s son)
And that’s a darn good song too.
“Well, there’s always the military.”
Have I told that story here before? That night I was crying, these were the options from my dad: military or school or move out.
The military is out of the question.
For better or worse, (and I give myself credit/blame for this), she won’t make good cannon fodder. She asks too many questions, and won’t buy in if she doesn’t like the answer.
Too many of our “elders/leaders” are given too much respect for no good reason, IMO.
“You only become fodder if you are in combat. Most people in the military do not experience combat.Choose a support role rather than a combat role and you will be alright.”
Your body may not be fodder but your mind will. As a soldier you serve absolute psychos. Front line combat of back line support..you are killing innocent people and stealing their property. Do try to think about the consequence of your actions.
RA RA military and real estate are no longer acceptable.
Let me give you an example of the “New America” that I am familiar with. When Mackie Designs came out with an affordable desktop mixer, it was groundbreaking. Then, another European audio outfit exploited international law, reverse engineered Mackie’s stuff, built it all in China, and sold it at a fraction of the cost.
So, how do you tell your kid to pay attention in physics in high school to gear up for an EE degree?
It seems that being the looter is the where the paycheck is these days.
I had my eyes opened way-wide just three years after I graduated from the University of Michigan. I was trying to find a job in Pittsburgh, and was having zero luck. This was in late 1982.
I was getting pretty discouraged, and right after the New Year, I moved into a room in a big old apartment in the Shadyside district of the city. I was renting the room from a lady I met at church.
Any-hoo, this lady had two other room-renters. They were what has come to be known as “working girls.” Meaning that they both had low-level jobs in offices Downtown.
Well, they quickly tired of my bitching about being unemployed. They told me that, at the end of the day, they wouldn’t let me back into the apartment unless I told them what I’d done to find a job. Let’s just say that one of these gals was a lot bigger than I was, and I figured that she could physically bar the door without breaking a sweat.
Didn’t take but a few more days for me to find a job. It was part-time, minimum wage, washing dishes. Not the most wonderful of jobs to have with a Michigan degree, but in a city where the unemployment was closing on 20%, I was damn glad to be working.
While my hands were immersed in hot suds, I had lots of time to think. Especially about that ad I heard a lot of during my childhood. You know the one: If you want a good job, get a good education.
Well, I sure as hell had a good education. Where were the good jobs?
That’s a question I’ve been pondering for many years. And in the course of my pondering, I’ve come to the conclusion that going to college isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.
But back in the early 1980s, people who’d fallen through the cracks of the college dream weren’t as commonplace as they are now. I distinctly remember being dis-invited from a University of Michigan alumni event at the Pittsburgh Athletic Club. The club was just a few blocks away from my dishwashing job, and I figured that it would be okay to stop by after work.
Since I was the last worker to come in for the restaurant’s evening shift, I had to throw my backpack down on the floor. There were no more clothes-hanging hooks left on the back of the supply closet door — all of my earlier-arriving coworkers had claimed them. So, it wasn’t like I could bring a suit to change into for an evening at the Athletic Club.
Well, I guess the Michigan alumni didn’t want me around because I represented their worst fear. That the Maize and Blue wasn’t always the magic door-opener to success in life. And that I’d have to make my own success, with a college education being *a* part but not the *central* part.
Slim always enjoy your posts. I believe I have lived a blessed life. Looking back, I have had problems, but all in all it has been good. I too have worked grunt stuff to get ahead, but it has all been a learning experience. I do believe my English degree was worth it as it exposed me to many thoughts and philosophies which has made me a much wiser person. I also learned communication skills which has been invaluable. But the most important thing I have learned is that it is attitude that has made me what I am today. Yes, I have aptitude but my attitude has opened many doors.
Slim always enjoy your posts. I believe I have lived a blessed life. Looking back, I have had problems, but all in all it has been good. I too have worked grunt stuff to get ahead, but it has all been a learning experience.
Thanks for the kind words!
As for grunt stuff, I found it to be highly motivational. Those jobs were so crummy that they motivated me to move up and out as fast as I could.
conclusion that going to college isn’t all it’s cracked up to be ??
I am 1 for 3…I should have just encouraged two of my children to start out in something right out of high-school…Thy did not get much out of college other than the social part which I suspect has some long term benefit…I guess if it is baseball one for three is hall of fame ranking…As a parent, I feel I fell a little short in not recognizing early on the direction that I should have pushed…Probably fell for the concept that everybody should go to college…
College is overrated. Grad school, even more so.
I fell for both. I should know.
I did well for myself but I’d have done well enough either way. I’m obsessive, driven, detail-oriented - those are the traits that drive success not college.
I’m obsessive, driven, detail-oriented ??
Persistence & determination are omnipotent….
“I did well for myself but I’d have done well enough either way. I’m obsessive, driven, detail-oriented - those are the traits that drive success not college.”
Yes, isn’t that in Taleb’s book - “Stochastic tinkering” as opposed to top down institutionalized stuff?
In some way things would be even for you today if you were doing the same thing. This is because Congress has not been increasing the minimum wage to keep pace with inflation over the past few decades. This is one of the reason that young people currently facing the situation that you were in move home with Mom and Dad. They can’t even afford to share an apartment the way that you dud in 1982.
I agree…this is a great thread and we will soon be in the same boat.
I too feel discouraged about the EE reverse engineering story mentioned above.
There are still companies that are providing free advanced education but the trick is getting enough background to be hired by them in the first place. At my husband’s place of employment the military trained do hold an advantage as a particular group from the military does have a required well of knowledge in the technology they use.
My husband had a very wide range of knowledge when he was hired by this particuar company which set him apart from others he was competing against. And he did take a less than fantastic job and stayed there for a while before moving into the better paying position at a stronger company. I think the most important thing for him was he was not just known as an employee that showed up but as an employee that had a very high bar for excellence even when the job was barely paying the bills. In the end, the connections and referrences come together. I guess I believe this will be even more valuable in the future. It will be a slackers need not apply economy.
I was hoping this topic would make the cut this weekend. I’ll be having to deal with the same situation in a few years. If things aren’t better by then, I’m thinking my advice will be to only go to college once you know for sure what you want…and it needs to be something hard that requires a college degree to do. Otherwise just start doing it.
it needs to be something hard that requires a college degree to do. Otherwise just start doing it ??
Good Advise IMO….
Most people I know in software have degrees, but not relevant ones.
One guy started off in Biotech and ended up in a software role another came in from the oil industry… Others had no degree at all, but had worked their way successfully into the industry.
IMO if you want to write software a degree in computer science is a good start but not the only way to get in. Mostly you need one at the interview stage so you pass the sniff test.
I’m finding that now most employers are demanding CS degrees for Software Engineering positions, even smaller companies. I do recall years ago when smaller employers didn’t really care and I worked at more than one shop where I was the only person with a CS degree.
Of course, this could change.
My SIL got his A&P 2 1/2 years ago, but didn’t have experience, so nobody wanted to hire him. Fortunately (unfortunately?) he works line service, so he was still “in the loop”, as far as the business is concerned.
As related before, I didn’t get a single call/reply to any of the resumes I sent out from August 2009 until this June. Suddenly, in June, I’m getting calls from employment agencies/head hunters
(yeah, and where were you guys two months ago, when I was negotiating my starting salary?…..)
Same thing with the SIL…….the job market was dead, until three weeks age, then suddenly it isn’t. He actually was in the pre-hire process for one job, when he got called for an even better one (IMO). His starting pay (with no experience) is the same as what they were offering to guys with 5 years experience 6 months ago.
Maybe the “A & P” shortage they’ve been predicting for 40 years has come to pass…….not because of retirements, but because they’ve pi$$ed off enough guys so bad, they’ve gone on to do something else that’s respected more, like fixing railroad locomotives, Porsches, and amusement park rides.
Maybe the “A & P” shortage they’ve been predicting for 40 years has come to pass…….not because of retirements, but because they’ve pi$$ed off enough guys so bad, they’ve gone on to do something else that’s respected more, like fixing railroad locomotives, Porsches, and amusement park rides.
Which is why I’ve long predicted that good employee relations will be the sleeper investment of the century. Treat your people well and you have a built-in street team that spreads the good word about your company. You’ll also have a lot less turnover too.
Yup, I am one of them and I will never go back…
Carl, I agree. As for “something hard that requires a college degree” that usually means sci/eng. Sci/eng talent shows up in kids pretty quickly and it’s unmistakable, so they (and you) should know by now if that’s a viable track.
My main advice to everybody’s kids is to DOUBLE MAJOR. If you’re going to put out incredible amounts of money, may as well get two degrees for the price of one. It’s worth it even if it takes an extra year.
Carl, here’s a slightly different take on the subject. I’m not necessarily recommending it, but it’s sort of worked out for me. You know your child’s mind by now– and in the end, there’s not much you can do to re-direct it.
Although I come from a family full of generational post doctoral degrees, I realized early on in my academic career that sitting in smoke-filled classrooms listening to a procession of supercilious Aspberger’s cases defend their one good idea was not something I cared to spend my hard-earned savings, let alone my limited time on this planet pursuing.
To the horror of all who knew me, I dropped out and went skiing for a few years, financing my way by taking vocal gigs and radio shows. Along the way I met a vast array of fascinating and accomplished people and let them take me out to dinner– or away on “vacation,” or into their athletic social circle as a decorative, if intellectually challenging accessory. (I was competitive in both skiing and equestrian activities.)
Thus, I learned to converse, question, assimilate the lifes’ lessons of the self-same professorial sorts– only without the academically-enforced sense of hierarchy. I also got a dandy, if emotionally- challenging decade’s worth of education out of it, along with the realization that many of these so-called experts were, in truth, insecure in their arguments if not outright intellectual frauds. Let’s just say it colored my subsequent political and social perceptions about “higher” education.
But those contacts, many of whom remain friends to this day, were invaluable in establishing both my professional and social credibility– something I likely would never have gained had I simply gone through the academic meat grinder and picked up a few useless degrees along the way.
In the creative arena, at least, talent is talent, but if you don’t have the contacts, (or aren’t stand-out brilliant,) you’ll likely remain unsung. Unless your child wishes to devote their life to a field that requires a specific degree for entree, college is simply a means of keeping them off the job market for another four to ten years.
That said, my own son gritted his teeth, went ahead and got the “prestige” degree, (at insane expense,) and eschewing the MD that was expected of him, promptly followed in my footsteps– only in the bizarre showbiz sideshow of professional grappling/MMA. I don’t imagine he’ll be supporting me lavishly in my old age, but he’s doing something he loves and getting paid for it. Isn’t that really what it’s all about?
Hope this helps.
In the creative arena, at least, talent is talent, but if you don’t have the contacts, (or aren’t stand-out brilliant,) you’ll likely remain unsung.
I’m finding this to be very true in the music business. As mentioned before, I’m on the music audition team for a community radio station. Which means that there’s always a stack of CDs in the living room for me to listen to and review.
Only a very few of the songs on a handful of the CDs get my attention. The rest? Well, they’re just kinda there.
Needless to say, I give airplay recommendations to just a tiny fraction of what I review.
I get what you’re saying. I’m not comfortable with it, but my son is also good at schmoozing and might be able to approach life similarly. I tend to be skeptical, though, because that sort of thing usually works much better for young attractive women than it does for everybody else.
“…usually works much better for young attractive women than it does for everybody else.”
I’ve met an awful lot of homely ex-salespeople who are now running the show. Don’t discount the ability to be charming.
“In the creative arena, at least, talent is talent, but if you don’t have the contacts, (or aren’t stand-out brilliant,) you’ll likely remain unsung.”
This has changed drastically. When I was 23 I had a string of “hits” and nailed three Wendy’s spots in a row. I was on fire for a young composer. The outfit I was working for was billing about $20k for each of these. For the most lucrative :30 spot, I was paid about $8k after union fees, creative, royalties, etc. FOR 8 HOURS of WORK. It blew my freakin’ mind that I made $1,000/hr. that day. It was the most lucrative spot because I composed, performed, recorded, mixed, etc. all of it on my powerbook in my teensy pad in Hoboken.
I knew right then everyone that had the overhead of a real studio was screwed.
About the same time I read an article about JJ Abrams banging out the Alias theme song (on his laptop while editing video) with about $300 of software.
In 2010 I made zero dollars from music. Last month I got a $75 ACH payment from my outfit for a little regional license. I shot an email back and said, “when was the last time you guys scored an original :30 for a major?”
Answer: 5 years ago.
D E F L A T I O N
Isn’t that really what it’s all about ??
Yep….And that where I feel I may have done it right….
“Depression set in this week, when she saw all her friends heading off to college (blissfully unaware on how hard it is going to be to pay back $80-100K in student loans). That, and working two shifts at the ‘casual eating establishment’ and taking home exactly 30 bucks.”
This is reminiscent of the feelings many of us ‘bitter priced-out renters’ were experiencing circa 2006, when we watched others with lower household incomes purchase homes at price tags north of $500K which they clearly were not able to afford. So my advice is, if you can’t afford your education off the expected future income stream, don’t accept those federally-funded loans to pay for it!
People fail to realize you can learn just about anything if you set your mind to it. There is a wealth of information on the net and community colleges are a good resource when you need human contact.
There is an implied idea that you can only learn in school, which is an idea that is frankly ridiculous.
There are fields which require vigorous certification such as being a Doctor, in which case you will need to attend one of those prestigious establishments and wind up hundreds of thousands in hawk, but then doctors tend to be paid well.
And a lot of college content is available on YouTube.
I have been through this recently with 2 of my children (not so recently with 3 others). My 27 year old decided to become a professional snowboarder right out of high school. Once I got over it, I decided it was a good decision. He is smart, but was not a good student - disorganized and only performed when the material interested him, which was rare. He has subsisted for the last 9 years on odd jobs that did not interfere with snowboarding. A couple of years ago, he started studying web development at a local community college. A lot of what he knows, he picked up on the internet.
My 23 year old is very close to finishing an English degree with a philosophy minor. He wants to be a writer and thoroughly enjoyed his college classes. So far, he has no debt. If it had meant taking on debt, I would have advised against it. Looking at trends - increasing oursourcing, increasing automation - he may end up doing better 40 years from now than my web developer. He will probably work retail for a while and may end up in a management position eventually. I tell him that all of his experiences are grist for the writer’s mill.
I don’t give them much advice, because the road ahead is so murky. But I do suggest things from time to time as the opportunity arises. Things like - if it doesn’t work out, you can get into computers or teach English in China.
The first step is for her to assess her interests and abilities. What would she do if nobody was paying her? How can she integrate that into a paying gig? Would she still be interested in doing it if she had to do it all of the time? Does she have friends or relations in a distant town so she can broaden her horizons, get off on her own a bit in relative safety? Are there folks that she could job shadow to get a sense for what a field is like? Does she prefer talking or working with her hands or working with her mind? Does she know one or more foreign languages?
I have thought for a while that it is good for everyone to have skills in 3 groups - high tech, low tech, and no tech. Then you can trade your skill for necessities no matter what the future holds.
“More importantly, the real estate tycoons in China who made a lot of money along with the bureaucratic businessmen in China by forced demolition and relocation of the Chinese citizens, may have to go bankrupt. As a result, China will lose half of its billionaires.”
Sounds like an awesome comeuppance! The world needs to see more real estate tycoons who made a lot of money by wrecking national economies face the personal prospects of financial demolition and relocation.
Number one major at college is psychology. Number one major for most waitress jobs is psychology. No one will hire a psychology major. If you want job after college major in something that requires work, accounting, finance, marketing, engineering, or nursing. The more math based it is the more likely you will get a job. If not college is a waste of time, except she may find a husband.
except she may find a husband ??
In my valley its also “He may find a wife”….
You are very much correct. The original comment was in regards to a daughter. But, I have seen more men find a wife and then retire right after college. Let the wife go out and work.
I had a girlfriend in college who was a math major. She bemoaned the number of women in her GE classes who were merely pursuing an, “MRS” degree.
I was a math/CS major and its been interesting work and very lucrative, but I had a natural talent at it - most don’t.
One thing people forget is they wouldn’t be saying college is a waste if costs were what they were in the 80’s. Before the 5 star campus dining/lodging/gym/etc facilities, before the massive pension costs due to retirees, before the states reducing funding, before getting a college degree was a must have for everyone, regardless of cost and predilection. Takes those factors away and college is a good place for smart people to congregate, hone their skills and plant the seeds for future businesses/industries.
One recommendation is to go to university extension classes if available - lots of industry relevant classes taught by working professionals rather than clueless academics. It shows employers you’ve got the drive to keep your skills on point, and your bank account will thank you.
Seriously. How many dining halls serve “tuna wiggle” or the equivalent these days? We had it regularly.
As for university extension classes, I’d advise caution. My aunt got a degree that way (one class at a time, paid for by her employer). I read one of her papers. It was a disaster. No research. No anlysis. No insight. Poorly written. She was very proud of it and expected a top grade. She had been taking classes for years, but I doubt that she had any experience with what I would consider college level writing.
A few decades ago my father taught an evening class at one of the MA state colleges. The topic was business communications. He refused to give good grades to papers that were poorly written based on the “content” because he figured that the quality of the writing was part of the content in a communications class. He nearly got fired. I think the college changed his grades after he submitted them. And he certainly was not asked back.
Had a great English Writing professor at a two-year public college (cheapest and best value - if you go for a BA, you get the same degree you would if you paid much more and started at the four-year school as a freshman) who informed me on the last day of the 45+ student class that I was the only student receiving an “A” in the class.
Kind of guessed that was possible based on other students’ questions; probably bigger factors is having two parents who majored in English.
“One thing people forget is they wouldn’t be saying college is a waste if costs were what they were in the 80’s.”
My god, yes. I got into UC Davis in 1985. The tuition was $395 per quarter. On the other hand, I was a slacker Poli Sci major, and with that tuition, I could afford to be. People who get in now do not slack off nearly as much. Much more driven. We also have ALOT more exchange students, particularly from Asia and the Middle East.
The ones from China are especially impressive. I’ve seen them arrive speaking almost no English, and diving into their major, usually chemistry. OK, chemistry uses a scientific language all its own, but the classes and texts are still in English, and tests are given in English. Man, they study their butts off. They seem keenly aware how much is being spent to send them to school here.
Yeah, cause that what the best fellows want. A chick who’s majoring in psych and wants to get married very early and tie him down, while he provides income for two (or more).
/sarc
A bit off topic but this relates…
Irrespective of your opinion of Suzie Orman, her sentiment and background is a good barometer and the RAL family watches her show weekly. Generally, she’s a pragmatic optimist and doesn’t get ideological on any details. Last night she got real dark on the future. Real dark. So dark to the point that she is advising post-tax investments over tax-deferred like 401k’s. Although I do not agree with her on this, the fact that she takes a negative position on the future is a marked change in her forecast.
Now that’s interesting. Thanks.
Maybe she has farmland in Argentina and has escape plans when SHTF here in the USA.
Oh I think an education can prepare her for life. You need to distinquish between education and vocational training even high end exspensive vocational training like law school / medical school.
I think history is the best thing to study. Having learned about Tulipmania, the South Seas Bubble, etc, I regconized the real estase bubble a mile away. (Philosophy believe it or not is a good degree. Being able to read, think, and communicate can lead to good jobs.) But more importantly history teaches her to expect the unexpected, nothing lasts forever including economic coditions or supremacy as in the US’s. etc….Philosophy will teach you how to cope with change.
P.S. Other posters probably have more practical advice.
I mentioned weeks ago about the low personal consumption rate in China. Evidently, the lack of social safety nets does affect the consumption rate. Unfortunately for Teapartiers, it also lends credence to Krugman’s claims that decreasing social spending will have a negative affect on our economy.
yet makes people more prudent. That doesn’t seem to be out of line with Tea Party thinking. I think prudence is the desired goal, not inflating the economy again.
The point of the article is that without safety nets and social security, people will save rather than spend. Long term, what China needs is an increase in the consumption rate. Especially, with the western world slowing down in consumption.
The urban community colleges and for profit minor colleges around here (western ct) are really pushing the lie that everyone should go to school, whatever time it takes, however much it costs- there are loans and aid. $25 k a year for remedial math/english - yikes!
I hope young people are starting to get wise to some of these scammers. All some of these for profit “colleges” want are fresh meat with which to secure another govt loan infusion for the college. Let the “student” worry about paying the debt off.
The last stat I read was that for profit students (@ 9-15% of college student enrollment) made up about 50% of all student loans.
Also this Washington Monthly article
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2009/0911.burd.html
“According to a College Board analysis of Department of Education data, 60 percent of bachelor’s degree recipients at for-profit colleges graduate with $30,000 or more in student loans—one and a half times the percentage of those at traditional private colleges and three times more than those at four-year public colleges and universities. Similarly, those who earn two-year degrees from proprietary schools rack up nearly three times as much debt as those at community colleges, which serve a similar student population. Proprietary school students are also much more likely to take on private student loans, which, unlike their federal counterparts, are not guaranteed by the federal government, offer scant consumer protections, and tend to charge astronomical interest—in some cases as high as 20 percent.”
Here in Tucson, there’s quite a dustup over the fact that Pima Community College is requiring entrance exams. Seems that too many people were testing so low that they had to take remedial classes. And then they’d wash out.
Since the cost of educating Pima students is largely borne by local taxpayers like Yours Truly, I strongly support the new requirement. The Pima faculty are backing this change too.
I don’t think government of any level should be paying for college students to take courses covering what they should have learned in high school. someone my son knows is tring again to pass sremedial math and English at the local technical college. The boy is nice but seems to have attention and learning issues. No matter how hard he tries, I do not see this ending well.
Wolfgirl,
My son has some focus issues. When I home schooled I found the (Japanese?) Saxon math to be an excellent teaching tool and my son did very well w/this system. Unlike many of the other teaching methods I considered the manuals showed the answers completely so there was no confusion about any answers and also reviewed constantly throughout the year as new information was introduced. I really loved the program. Perhaps his Mom and he himself could check it out.
As it turns out my son is actually strong in math and last year his teacher was very excited to have him in his class. Prior to that homeschooling year I’m not sure his teachers would have said that. I think the Saxon showed him he could do it.
It sounds like this college “education” is needed to make up for what students didn’t learn in k-12.
“Our high school was good at spotting and grooming kids…….”
Things haven’t changed since we were in school. About 8-9th grade, it seems like they have a meeting, and sort all the kids into “future elite” and “cannon fodder”. The “future elite” get all the help, and the “fodder” get just enough to get them past the NCLB tests.
Most of the people around here are working under the “old paradigm”…….go to college, get a degree in something, and you are set for life. Needless to say, I don’t buy into that.
I’m thinking that by NOT going $100Gs in the hole before she’s 21, she is going to be able change jobs easier, because she won’t be worried about paying back student loans. And, by working minimum wage/low paying jobs for a few years, she’ll get the proper motivation.
Her older sister, OTOH, has done okay up to now without a degree, works at national clothing chain as an assistant manager. Almost all of her employees are college grads who can’t find work, and are all struggling to pay back student loans. Her problem is that without a degree, she isn’t considered for anything higher in the food chain than Store Manager.
That, and she isn’t a gay male, which seems to be a prerequisite for promotion by her (gay) Regional Manager…….but I digress.
There is a certain interval where a person without a degree could use her experience in an industry and a resume that highlights that she has been getting promotions and more responsibility on a continuing basis to get that next promotion by moving to another company. She needs to do her research to see if there are any companies in her area that do not have the 4 year degree requirement and target them for jumping into the store manager slot. Won’t help if she is competing against people who have the same experience and history of success plus the degree, but could work if she is competing agains people the degree, less experience and who communicate in the interview that with their degree they really should be the boss.
She should take a few retail buisness oriented accounting classes at a local community college (and ace them) to show that she does have the smarts to do that stuff, but if you find the right company, she might not need to actually get a 4 year degree.
For networking and “informational interview” purposes, she should see if she can find a store manager in the area who doesn’t have a degree. Ask that person if it is still possible to work your way up? What do you need to do to pull it off? Are there companies around that still work that way? You’d be surprised at how many people will talk to you about career stuff if you make it clear you aren’t looking for a job, just for them to tell you about how they became the success they are. Flattery and all. But subtle flattery.
“But like taking steroids, there were side effects. The burst of credit has fueled inflation, which is proving painful for average Chinese. Soaring prices for pork, vegetables and other staples have authorities worried about the potential for social unrest. So has a property bubble that has put home ownership out of reach of millions, exacerbating the gulf between rich and poor.”
“Meanwhile, the nation’s debt levels have reached new heights. A national audit released in June found outstanding loans to local governments, among the biggest players in the building binge, amounted to $1.65 trillion, or nearly a third of China’s GDP.”
Whoa, Nellie — the debt-fueled Chinese property bubble sounds ginormous. When it pops, as all bubbles eventually do, watch out below, as there will truly be nowhere to hide.
We could very well be seeing 1930’s era apple-sellers and breadlines in China . Do they have food banks and church soup kitchens in Beijing?
(more likely, kids will just go back to the countryside and scratch the ground like mom and dad.)
“According to a survey by Western financial institutions, 1.5 percent of Chinese own 45% of bank deposits and 67% of assets.”
The Chinese and American elite should merge their operations into one communist-capitalist comradeship kleptocracy.
Or have they already done so?
The Chinese have shown our oligarchs/kleptocrats how to do things the right way.
“So…….what does a parent tell an 18 year old about what she should do to get ready for the future?
Eat your peas.
If I were to give advice to an 18 year old today who was smart but who didn’t have rich parents to foot the bill for everything, I would tell them that they will probably need a college education, but that they shouldn’t go into tons of debt for it.
I would advise getting some crappy job while living at home or splitting a pad with roommates, and getting as many credits as possible out of the way at the community college. Then, if possible, I would advise trying to snag a job on the campus of whatever full-fledged university they wanted to attend. Even if it’s a crappy admin/receptionist job, groundskeeping, working in the dorm cafeteria, whatever. At most university systems, once you are in the system in one position it is easier to transfer around to another position. Maybe after a few years they could get a job within the department of their interest. This would allow them some contact with professors and administrators that might prove useful as they pursue their degree. Also, of course, they’d be getting some useful job experience.
Most universities offer some kind of discounted tuition to employees, one free class a semester at least, if not more, something like that. So I’d try to get a job there and all the while be chipping away at the degree with a class or two every semester. Think of it like that Johnny Cash song “One Piece at a Time.” Sure, if they graduated in 4 years and got a great job immediately, taking out the loans would be worth the gamble, but I wouldn’t take that gamble in this economy. I’d say the way things are now, they are better served keeping their cards close to the vest.
Yes, this would take a long time. But by moving slowly, they would probably have a better idea of what interested them. I know too many people who finished their BA in four years only to later discover they had a degree in a field that held no interest for them, or that wasn’t attractive to employers. It’s really hard for most 18 year olds to really know what’s out there, and what the possibilities are.
I kind of thought my 20’s were a waste, and I didn’t really have a clue about who I was or what interested me until I was in my 30’s. Some people know all of that stuff from the get-go, but I seem to see a lot of people who flounder around after college and then end up going back to grad school or something like that because they really had no clue what they should be doing in college but were told that they had to have a degree.
When I was a student at the local community college, I could always rely on getting a good part-time job from their job board.
May still be true. Probably better than Craigslist!
My opinion - she should consider college. Yeah it’s expensive, but major in something legitimate and the income is there. Or she can be more choosy while working on her MRS degree.
BTW: I have a friend who made it fairly far but not to the finals on American Idol. She wins competitions on a regular basis, and gets paid $50 a gig. That’s 15 gigs before you could afford a season ski pass, so everything is way more expensive and competive and harder today, not just college.
I’d advise a joungster to explore what they want to do and then figure out how to pay for it. I took the opposite route, to figure how to pay for anything and then have life swallowed up in that pursuit. Mostly anyway. Now I find that what I enjoy isn’t expensive at all! massive debt for credentials? Huge strategic error.
No one is persuading their kid to go into small scale intensive farming. The place to be going forward.