So this smart guys solution is to keep pumping…No matter that “it” will not “fix” the core problems. Just do it!
We Are in ‘Worse Situation’ Than in 2008: Roubini
Friday, 2 Sep 2011 | CNBC.com
The world’s developed economies are trapped at the “stall speed” of low growth and need to have greater fiscal stimulus and less austerity to kick-start growth, leading economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC Friday.
Speaking at the Ambrosetti Forum on the shores of Lake Como, near Milan, Roubini said in an interview: “We are in a worse situation than we were in 2008. This time around we have fiscal austerity and banks that are being cautious.”
Roubini, known for his bearish views on the world economy, thinks that there is a 60 percent chance of a second recession imminently. Economic data of recent weeks presents a mixed picture.
On Thursday, the US government announced that jobless claims dropped by 11,000 to 409,000 last week. Friday’s employment report in the US is expected to show a gain of only 75,000 nonfarm jobs during August, with the unemployment rate steady at 9.1 percent.
Recent surveys point to slumping business and consumer confidence across the developed world.
Asked if there was still a chance the developed economies could avoid recession, Roubini said: “That’s very optimistic if you look at the data.”
“The hard economic data (which has come out recently) is all relevant to July while the soft data which has come out is for the future and that’s all moving in the wrong direction,” he added.
He also believes that a third round of quantitative easing in the US may not have the desired long-term effects, and that further fiscal stimulus across Europe and the US will be needed.
“The market may rally but unless the real economic data moves with asset prices, then eventually asset prices are going to go,” he said. “Last year the economic data was already improving when QE2 was introduced.”
“We are in a worse situation than we were in 2008. This time around we have fiscal austerity and banks that are being cautious.”
We are lucky to have at least one MSM-quoted economist who doesn’t paint lipstick on pigs. But it is a shame the MSM always yields to its bizarre proclivity to discredit Roubini by referring to him as ‘Dr Doom’ and such. When you get down to it, haven’t Roubini’s dire predictions proven considerably more on target throughout the duration of the Great Recession than those of the bandwagon full of ditto-head Pollyannas the MSM regularly quotes?
But it is a shame the MSM always yields to its bizarre proclivity to discredit Roubini by referring to him as ‘Dr Doom’ and such.
The half-dozen conglomorates that own the MSM news outlets have a vested interest in promoting the “recovery is just around the corner” meme to lull the sheeple into continuing to consume and “invest” in our Ponzi markets and TBTF bank-peddled financial instruments. Naysayers who tell the truth, e.g. Ron Paul, HAVE to be discredited and marginalized, or too many people will start to wake up.
‘No matter that “it” will not “fix” the core problems.’
If you somehow severed a finger, would you put on a tourniquet, or just ignore the problem, as “it” would not “fix” the core problem of a severed finger?
This horse has been beaten into dust. The problem is insolvency not liquidity. So Roubini is not correct in the sense that to keep pumping will solve this monetary issues. It has not and will not, but that won’t stop the pumpers from pumping. When it all comes crashing down at some future date, it will be very,very ugly.
There it is, there is the situation laid out as plain as it can be stated for anyone who cares to take a look.
This insolvency will result in a lot of major financial poofs. Those folks who are on the wrong end of these poofs are hosed.
Debts incurred due to borrowed money will be poofed.
Debts incurred due to promised money will also be poofed.
The only recourse to the individual is to somnehow make sure he is not on the wrong end of these poofs.
He should not rely on anyone else but himself to make this determination, especially he should not rely on anyone in Congress to make this determination.
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Comment by Ol'Bubba
2011-09-03 07:58:10
“The problem is insolvency not liquidity.”
Here’s a question for combo and wmbz, (with a request that getstucco/professor bear/cantankerous refrain from chiming in as this is directed to combo and wmbz)-
Please elaborate on the definitions and differences between insolvency and liquidity. Based on you answer, please provide evidence of insolvency that is congruent with your definitions.
I’m not trying to be a smart-ass here. I’m asking the question in the spirit of moderation and getting blog readers all on the same page.
Thanks.
Comment by combotechie
2011-09-03 08:18:27
Now and then the Fed wants to slow down the pace of the economy and so it acts to make money expensive to borrow - it acts to cause interest rates to rise. It’s not as if businesses and individuals cannot borrow, it’s just becomes expensive for them to do so. This is an issue of liquidity; The value of the assets that stand behind the loans are not questioned it’s just the cashing out this unquestioned value is made expensive.
But when the value of the assets ARE questioned then people cannot borrow money no matter what the interest rates are. This is an issue of solvency.
And this is where we are now. Asset values are falling. These assets are what back loans. Banks don’t want to make loans that are backed by assets that have falling values, so they don’t.
But bank loans are what puts money into the economy. And right now the banks are not putting money into the economy, but still they continue to collect loan payments from previous loans that they made - which has a net result of banks sucking money out of the economy.
So there it is: Borrowed money goes into buying things. Buying things keeps the prices of these things up. Prices that are kept up act as equity that banks will loan money against. It works until it doesn’t.
“…with a request that getstucco/professor bear/cantankerous refrain from chiming in as this is directed to combo and wmbz…”
Sorry, my hand slipped!
Comment by combotechie
2011-09-03 08:40:49
And the problem of insolvency doesn’t stop at making new loans. The values of previous loans is questioned if the assets that back these previous loans are questioned.
A lot of people depend on being paid what they are owed or what they are promised. Much of the economy also depends on these people being paid what they are owed or what they are promised. Spending screeches to a halt in those areas where owed and promised money is not paid out.
Much of this owed and promised money is just not there. It’s supposed to be there, but it isn’t. It’s supposed to be backed by assets (i.e. pensions, annuities) or by future tax receipts (i.e. Social Security) but is isn’t, a large part of it at least.
Comment by combotechie
2011-09-03 09:49:41
What each person needs to understand, IMO, is that the economic problem we face today is one of insolvency, not one of liquidity.
But during out lifetimes we have been conditioned by previous liquidity crisises to expect all financial crisises to be immediately resolved once the money spigot is again turned on by the Fed. This means we have been conditioned to buy the dips.
But buying the dips results in financial suicide in a insolvency crisis because such a crisis is much different than a liquidity crisis and thus simply turning on the money spigot won’t fix it.
Liquidity problem is when you’ve emptied your checking account and maxxed your credit cards, but still have sufficient income or assets to make payments on your bills. You just need to slow your spending until you rebuild your reserves.
Insolvancy is when your bills are so large and assets and income so small, that you can’t make your payments. The people that you owe are about to find out they aren’t as well off as they thought they were.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-09-04 04:22:16
Of course, Roubini isn’t calling for more ‘pumping’, he’s calling for more stimulus- a distinction that some here apparently cannot grasp.
“…to keep pumping will solve this monetary issues…”
Nobody ever said a tourniquet would solve a severed finger, either. But at least you can stanch the bleeding. Unless you don’t mind bleeding to death, that is…
P.S. I realize the GOP may have in mind a strategy to bleed the economy just enough to enable them to stick the blame on Obama. It’s transparently obvious, but perhaps if a majority of U.S. voters can’t see it…
Comment by Ol'Bubba
2011-09-03 12:49:01
“…with a request that getstucco/professor bear/cantankerous refrain from chiming in as this is directed to combo and wmbz…”
Sorry, my hand slipped!
Yeah, right… whatever. In my not so humble opinion, you post a truly disproportionate amount here on the HBB. I had a feeling it was futile to request you to refrain from commenting. I don’t believe you have the ability to do so.
“In my not so humble opinion, you post a truly disproportionate amount here on the HBB. I had a feeling it was futile to request you to refrain from commenting. I don’t believe you have the ability to do so.”
I like to comment, especially on Combo’s and wmbz’s posts. You are not the moderator of this blog, and Ben is free to ask me to stop posting any time, or to simply not display anything he finds inappropriate.
I intend to continue commenting when I think I have something to add to the discussion. In case you don’t believe you have the ability to ignore my posts, I suggest you get the Joshua Tree Extension and set it to not display them.
Happy Labor Day to you!
Cantankerous Professor “Don’t Get Stucco” Bear
Comment by Neuromance
2011-09-03 13:37:33
“In my not so humble opinion, you post a truly disproportionate amount here on the HBB. I had a feeling it was futile to request you to refrain from commenting. I don’t believe you have the ability to do so.”
I for one, am grateful for people like Professor Bear, Polly and many others over the years, for posting on this blog.
Their comments and insights have been very enlightening and informative.
You read it here, then maybe many months or years later, you see it in the MSM and then start to hear it from the occasional politician or policymaker.
A flying aircraft will stall if the airspeed drops below the point at which lift is developed. A stall is preceded by a warning “buffet” (yes, we just had a warning Buffet) at which point the pilot only has a single choice to recover from the stalled condition. That choice is lowering the nose of the airplane and adding power in an attempt to gain airspeed. Altitude will be lost, there is no avoiding it (the economy will suffer in the near term), but without the necessary sacrifice in altitude in exchange for an increase in airspeed the stall will become unrecoverable and an uncontrolled spin will ensue. A spin is a violent manouver in which a far greater amount of altitude is lost in a much shorter period of time than a simple stall recovery and some spins are completely irrecoverable. The proximity of terrain (the ground) is of particular concern during any stall manouver and due to inherent altitude loss, stalls close to the ground are often fatal.
Bernanke is not a pilot (obviously).
Obama is not either (but he may have stayed in a Holiday Inn Express recently).
“That choice is lowering the nose of the airplane and adding power in an attempt to gain airspeed. Altitude will be lost, there is no avoiding it (the economy will suffer in the near term), but without the necessary sacrifice in altitude in exchange for an increase in airspeed the stall will become unrecoverable and an uncontrolled spin will ensue.”
The housing market analogue of this strategy would be to allow home prices to fall to the point where buyers were willing and able to start buying homes again. At that point, the flow of new housing market transactions would increase the local economic airspeed, buoying regional industries and avoiding an uncontrolled death spiral to the ground. Affordable housing prices, in balance with local incomes and rental rates, would be a further desirable outcome.
And no taxes would need to be raised to fund this jobs creation program, as all the economic potential energy to make this happen is stored in the artificially-high nominal market values of those millions of vacant homes currently withheld from the market. The only necessary precaution would be to release the energy quickly enough to get the housing market back on its feet without accidentally creating a catastrophic inventory flood.
Maybe if house prices fall enough and car prices fall proportionally, along with fuel prices falling below 78 cents per gallon, I would decide to stay in one place instead of move around the country every year or two.
It just does not make economic sense for me right now to chain myself to one community.
If we are to have average annual salaries of $35,000 (which is the trend our country is moving to) then those big ticket items have to fall commensurately. Until that happens, there will be several million empty houses rotting and tens of thousands of $40,000 autos parked on the docks in places such as Long Beach, Ca.
I hope the fence sitters continue to wait it out and eat popcorn. Our economic power is real. As long as we refuse to have financial obligations, we have the power to make prices fall.
Let those empty stucco boxes rot! They will make the big bank stocks eventually take a huge hit. Reality is a solid steel wrench.
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Comment by Bill in Phoenix and Tampa
2011-09-03 09:01:57
My Tempe (Phoenix) Toyota dealer lately has been flooding my mailbox there with letters asking me to consider trading in my eight year old (8 years plus 5 months) Toyota economy car on a new 2011 or 2012 model. They say my car is in high demand (should be. Only has 61,000 miles on it) and that it would attract a high resale price. But it still runs well. Why get another? They have also been flooding me with letters about extending my warranty. I think it’s a bunch of hogwash.
It’s nice to have no debt, everything paid off, and to have businesses beg you to buy a big ticket item you really don’t need, yet can buy several of the same unit with cash - or about 8 of them with gold at Friday’s spot price!
“It just does not make economic sense for me right now to chain myself to one community.”
There has never been a better time to be able to quickly relocate. Many Americans don’t have such flexibility, due to their being chained to homes with underwater mortgages. Others who rent may nonetheless be willingly anchored to jobs which are not portable or to communities where their kids have good opportunities and established communities of friends. The dearth of labor market and housing market liquidity is creating considerable headwinds for recovery prospects.
Comment by measton
2011-09-03 13:24:05
3 years ago I purchased a town and country minivan. I’ve put 30k on it and it appears that I can sell it now for about 1000 less than I paid.
Bernanke is tying to climb out of the stall with a huge power application (flood of printed money) along with steady back-pressure on the controls (gov sponsored price-fixing - first time buyer tax credit, cash 4 clunkers, etc) which simply doesn’t work once a stalled condition has been esablished. A violent accelerated stall (whip-stall) is the only result of such an action where the airplane suddenly snaps inverted and dives straight down in a sickening spiral. Most cerified aircraft are not structurally rated for whip-stalls and are placarded somewhere in the cockpit warning against such a manouver. Bernanke is well on his way to not only failing his check-ride, but recklessly endangering the safety of our capitalist democracy. Allowing deflation to stabilize demand with supply is the only correct (lowering the nose) response that will or ever has historically worked. A child could figue this out.
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Comment by Bill in Carolina
2011-09-03 15:52:25
Is it possible that maybe Bernanke was trained at the Air France pilots’ school?
Even if the economy has reached stall speed (yet again)?
P.S. Leamer spectacularly failed to see the imminent collapse of the housing bubble, but this won’t prevent him from being wrong again on the double dip.
Stall Speed: An economist acknowledges that the U.S. economy has stalled, but says it hasn’t begun receding.
Preview | SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2011 Hold the Alarm: Next Stop, Slow Growth By ROBIN GOLDWYN BLUMENTHAL
A UCLA professor sees no indication of a double-dip recession.
Investors alarmed by August’s downbeat jobs report, as well as the Philly Fed index and consumer-confidence gauges, could be forgiven for worrying that the economy is sliding into a double-dip recession.
But according to Ed Leamer, an economics professor at UCLA and chief economist for the Pulse of Commerce Index, their fears are misplaced.
“If it’s a recession, it’s a totally new kind of recession,” says Leamer, who notes that many indicators are single readings that rely on people’s opinions and are, to some extent, emotional. “It isn’t hard, real data,” he says. Moreover, the Philly Fed index encompasses a “tiny district,” that includes only eastern Pennsylvania, south Jersey and Delaware.
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Comment by Carl Morris
2011-09-03 15:14:28
“If it’s a recession, it’s a totally new kind of recession,” says Leamer
Oh, I doubt that, Leamer. Maybe since you’ve started paying attention…
I really doubt that is the problem. It is more a problem of not wanting to offend any of the corporate donors who fund the UCLA Anderson School (i.e. Real Estate Industrial Complex members).
I say this because I recall reading a paper written by Leamer himself back in 2003 or so about the fact that the housing market’s rent-purchase price ratio was out of balance — i.e. U.S. homes had become so overvalued that they no longer penciled out as rentals. This was long before he started routinely offering MSM disclaimers about the very existence of a housing bubble.
Stillwater Investment Group files for bankruptcy
Eddie Fitzgerald - New Bern News
Stillwater Investment Group, LLC, in New Bern filed Friday in Wilson for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
Andy Bayliss, a majority owner of Stillwater Investment Group, and the owner and CEO of Tab Premium Built Homes, said the Chapter 11 was a restructuring and would not slow or stop the marketing of Sillwater Harbour, a single-family home community on Brice’s Creek of Marion Drive.
Tab Premium Built Homes is the preferred builder at Stillwater Harbour off of Marion Drive in New Bern but has no ownership interest in the property, according to Bayliss.
The Chapter 11 filing will not impact Tab, its customers or subcontractors, he said in a prepared statement. Bayliss issued his statements through Talk Inc., a public relations company in Wilimington.
“Tab Premium Built Homes is the market leader in luxury, custom home building in eastern North Carolina,” Bayliss said. “We are financially strong and poised for continued growth and success. As a businessman — and completely outside of my ownership interest in Tab Premium Built Homes — I have developed a number of successful residential developments over the years, such as The Vineyard, Gable’s Run and Long Leaf Pines.”
Stillwater Harbour was launched in 2007.
“ … Like so many other quality projects created during this time, it has been adversely affected by the recession,” Bayliss said. “I have always worked hard and fulfilled all of my financial commitments. But in the case of Stillwater Harbour, the lender recently changed the terms of our loan and I am left with little choice but to file Chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring on behalf of Stillwater Investment Group LLC, of which I am majority owner.”
The lender in the Stillwater Harbour venture was BB&T.
The Stillwater development already has all infrastructure and amenities, including water and sewer, curbs and gutters, paved roadways, landscaping and 12 boat slips.
Stillwater Harbour has 64 lots on more than 63 acres. There are 36 waterfront lots and 28 interior home lots. All lots have access to a protected deep water harbor marina with capacity for 100 boat slips. There is nearly 5 acres of green space throughout the community, including sidewalks, natural areas and open meadows. Prices for a home and lot in Stillwater start in the $300,000 range.
There is one model home on the site and one uncompleted home.
Self-Employed Struggle as U.S. Recovery Offers Few Opportunities
Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) — More than 1 million self-employed Americans are no longer in business almost four years after the last recession began, as the economy constrains entrepreneurial activity and small-business job creation.
The 18-month contraction that started in December 2007 initially resulted in more would-be business owners, as the number of people who work for themselves grew to 16.3 million in July 2008 from 15.7 million at the end of 2007, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since then, the total has fallen about 10 percent to 14.7 million in July, the data show.
Employer businesses — those that provide work for individuals including the founder — “have been starting in fewer numbers, with fewer workers and growing at a slower pace than in the past,” according to Robert Litan, a vice president at the Kansas City, Missouri-based Kauffman Foundation, which supports research on start-ups. “Therefore, these entrepreneurs are generating increasingly fewer new jobs for the U.S. labor market.”
The number of new employer businesses dropped 24 percent to 505,473 on an annual basis in 2010 from 667,341 in 2006, according to Litan, who co-wrote a report published in July on small-business job creation.
This has contributed to high unemployment as the economic recovery slows. The rate has remained above 9 percent for 25 of the past 27 months, falling to 9.1 percent in July from 9.2 percent in June, BLS statistics show. August data will be released September 2.
Obama’s Speech
President Barack Obama has said small companies can help spur expansion and will address a joint session of Congress on Sept. 8 to unveil plans to promote job growth. He told participants at a White House ceremony Aug. 29 that his proposals will include making it “easier” for entrepreneurs to hire people.
Small companies employ about half the private-sector labor force, so it’s “very difficult” for the jobless rate to improve when they’re “not doing well, because they are too big a part of the economy,” said Scott Shane, professor of entrepreneurial studies at Case Western Reserve University.
Their weakness is also “a very big problem” for office- supply retailers such as Staples Inc., Office Depot Inc. and OfficeMax Inc., which sell to small businesses, said Brad Thomas, an analyst with KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. in New York. Same-store comparative sales for this industry have stagnated at an average zero percent in the past two years, while other retailers experienced some rebound following recessionary declines, he said.
Missing Links
“One of the missing links in this recovery has been stronger small-business growth, which is hurting the sales” of these companies, said Thomas, who is relatively cautious about the sector and maintains “hold” ratings on Staples and Office Depot.
During the economic slump, so-called “necessity entrepreneurs” started businesses because they couldn’t find a job and needed to keep food on the table, said Litan. While their work may be “laudable,” these mainly unincorporated sole proprietors are less likely to be major employers than firms that hire other workers in their first year, he said.
Hmmmm, what an interesting story: People going into business for themselves because they can’t find jobs. So, they make their own employment, thus removing themselves from the job market.
Add to this, the lousy working conditions that accompany a lot of jobs, and you see quite a few voluntary entrepreneurs. They’re motivated to make their own jobs because they’ve had enough of the other kind.
If I may be so bold as to go out on a limb and make a prediction, here I go: I think we’re moving toward an economy that is kind of like the one we had before the rise of industrialization and large corporations. Back then, most people worked for themselves. If their businesses created jobs, they weren’t big job creators. They may have hired a neighbor boy to help out on the farm, but that was about it.
Self employment sucks in some ways. You pay both sides of social security, you get lonely thus you become a HBB addict, and your income better exceed your expenses (personal & business) or you’re OOB.
Being a self employed EE, 1/2 the projects are loss leaders, and having an Accounting background, your clients want too much free.
I’d rather be tucked away in a shopping center office, having tenants to deal with, and income per sq ft to master.
Self employment doesn’t work for everyone.
I miss my former life. Although, I don’t mess the spoiled housewives. Strange ducks.
“While their work may be “laudable,” these mainly unincorporated sole proprietors are less likely to be major employers than firms that hire other workers in their first year, he said.”
“More than 1 million self-employed Americans are no longer in business almost four years after the last recession began, as the economy constrains entrepreneurial activity and small-business job creation.
The 18-month contraction that started in December 2007 initially resulted in more would-be business owners, as the number of people who work for themselves grew to 16.3 million in July 2008 from 15.7 million at the end of 2007, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since then, the total has fallen about 10 percent to 14.7 million in July, the data show.”
If only these small businesses and entrepreneurs had access to some of that $4t or so in lending the Fed summarily doled out at rock-bottom interest rates in the wake of the Fall 2008 financial crisis!
Another tropical storm headed towards land seems an apt metaphor to match the state of the U.S. employment picture this Labor Day weekend.
P.S. It’s not “Obama’s fault” or “Bush’s fault.” Not all bad stuff that happens is some U.S. president’s fault. Anyone who thinks along these lines, please get yourself a life.
NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Lee were falling in southern Louisiana and pelting the Gulf Coast on Saturday as the storm’s center trudged slowly toward land, where businesses were already beginning to suffer on what would normally be a bustling holiday weekend. The storm could bring up to 20 inches (50 centimeters) of rain to some areas.
Tropical storm warnings were in effect from Mississippi to Texas, and flash flood warnings extended along the Alabama coast into the Florida Panhandle. The storm’s slow forward movement means that its rain clouds should have more time to disgorge themselves on any cities in their path.
Lee’s biggest impact, so far, has been in the Gulf of Mexico oil fields. About half the Gulf’s normal daily oil production has been cut as rigs were evacuated, though oil prices were down sharply Friday on sour economic news.
Federal authorities said 169 of the 617 staffed production platforms have been evacuated, along with 16 of the 62 drilling rigs. That’s reduced daily production by about 666,000 barrels of oil and 1.7 billion cubic feet of gas.
The storm was expected to make landfall on the central Louisiana coast late Saturday and turn east toward New Orleans, where it would provide the biggest test of rebuilt levees since Hurricane Gustav struck on Labor Day 2008.
…
Spaniards are trying to get accustomed to their version of Tea Party austerity measures.
Spain Caps Its Debt — Rest of the Euro Zone Be Warned
By Lisa Abend / Madrid Friday, Sept. 02, 2011
…
At their Aug. 16 summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy encouraged every member of the 17-state euro zone to work a debt ceiling into its constitution. Within a week, Zapatero had become the first leader to take their words to heart. He negotiated a pact with the lead opposition Popular Party (PP) that would reform the Spanish constitution to require every level of government — national, regional, and municipal — to limit its deficit. A separate law will allow the national government to accrue only 0.4% debt.
…
No one doubts the symbolic impact that the amendment will have, and Zapatero has already received support for the gesture from the OECD and ratings companies like Moody’s. But many analysts suggest that its real impact on the economy will be limited, not least because it allows governments to supersede the debt limits in times of crisis or other unusual circumstances. “There are a lot of ‘buts’,” says Soledad Pellón, market strategist for the Spanish branch of IG Markets, an international trading company. “It’s a very flexible piece of legislation, so I think it’s logical to expect that it will only be applied in years when the economy is doing okay.”
The pact, coming just three months before elections that Zapatero’s Socialist Party (PSOE) is widely expected to lose, took many by surprise. For one thing, the prime minister did not even consult members of his own party before agreeing to the reform. Even more surprising was the decision to rush the amendment — the first major change to the Spanish constitution since its creation in 1978 — through parliament.
“He really didn’t have a choice,” explains strategist Pellón. “In the past few weeks the Central European Bank has been buying up Spanish debt, which is a form of semi-rescue. And rescue packages always come with obligations.” (See if there’s a strategy behind Spain’s early elections.)
Perhaps so, but today several sectors of Spanish society are wondering if it was necessary to meet those obligations quite so quickly. On the floor of the congress and in the streets of Madrid, many of the smaller political parties, unions and members of the broad protest movement known as “The Indignant” are vociferously objecting to restrictions on regional autonomy and to the cuts in social welfare spending that will likely result from a stabilized budget. And more than anything they are rejecting the rapid imposition of the amendment without a referendum.
…
Actually, I read somewhere that the Spanish government was running pretty small deficits before the economy crashed. The problem there was the housing bubble, in other words, individuals taking mortgages too big relative to their incomes.
Also, do you have any reason to believe that corruption and graft are a big problem in Spain?
Painful to the nattering nabobs of all nationalities (NNNs), austerity is a must in all the over-extended nations - nations of big government.
However “austerity” is painless to those who already lived their lives austerely, that is, well below their means. I was on a contractor blog years ago and one of the contractor’s signatures was “save in the good times so you can spend in the bad times.” Those days, in the early 2000s, they were “bad times” for contractors in industries that were dying. Pipe fitters? WTF are they? Do they put one end of a pipe into another end?
To those of us used to it, “austerity” will mean more of the same lifestyle we are accustomed to (yawn).
The world economies are contracting. It looks like the only last real stimulus will come from radical new technological advances, which happen every generation or two. Um, that may mean in 40 years from now
We have not been affected by this contraction,The only area I am cutting back is charity as I have recently discovered how I wasted donating about $5000 last year was a very foolish mistake. I got taken for a ride. Lesson learned.
Originally published Friday, September 2, 2011 at 10:07 PM Job push goes nowhere in bickering Congress Congress’ two parties have radically different ideas about how to create the jobs they want, and they endlessly replay old arguments.
By David A. Fahrenthold
The Washington Post
WASHINGTON — This is the sound of a national conversation, going nowhere.
Members of Congress have said the words “create jobs” 1,236 times this year. Almost once for every hour Congress was in session, according to C-SPAN data. President Obama has said those same words at least 116 times. Almost every other day.
What they haven’t done is agree on a way to create them.
Instead, Republicans argued for less spending. Democrats argued for stimulating the economy. Congress agreed on almost nothing.
And Friday, that was what they got: almost nothing. New statistics showed zero net jobs created in August, which left the national unemployment rate at 9.1 percent.
…
(Reuters) - Employment growth ground to a halt in August, reviving recession fears and piling pressure on both President Barack Obama and the Federal Reserve to provide more stimulus to aid the frail economy.
For the first time in nearly a year the economy failed to create new jobs on a net basis according to the Labor Department’s monthly nonfarm payrolls survey on Friday.
Economists had expected nonfarm employment to rise 75,000 last month but they cautioned against viewing the data as a surefire sign of recession.
A worsening debt crisis in Europe and an acrimonious political fight over the government budget and debt, which led Standard & Poor’s to strip the country of its AAA credit rating, ignited a massive stock market sell-off last month and sent business and consumer confidence tumbling.
“The economy is struggling against stiff headwinds, which appear to have intensified in recent months,” said Millan Mulraine, senior macro strategist at TD Securities in New York. “While it has clearly not fallen off the cliff, there is little to suggest it is anywhere close to regaining its momentum.”
…
Prospect of more battles over budget unnerves economists
By Patrice Hill
The Washington Times
Thursday, September 1, 2011
…
ASSOCIATED PRESS Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week that “The country would be well-served by a better process for making fiscal decisions.”
“The single-biggest risk facing both the United States and Europe is a policy mistake” that would take away stimulus that is helping to hold up growth, he said, noting that the budget impasse is threatening to prevent the extension of payroll tax cuts and other stimulus measures enacted at the end of last year.
Those measures are adding about 1 percentage point to economic growth this year — no small contribution when growth is running at less than 1 percent, he said.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke also warned last week that political machinations that led to the downgrade last month hurt the economy.
“The negotiations that took place over the summer disrupted financial markets and probably the economy as well,” Mr. Bernanke said in a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo. “The country would be well-served by a better process for making fiscal decisions.”
Many economists view Mr. Bernanke’s warning as understated, given the evidence of economic damage that is piling up by the day.
“The drama around the lifting of the U.S. debt ceiling has weighed down on financial markets and eroded business and consumer confidence,” said Joachim Fels, an economist at Morgan Stanley. Confidence in government in particular has collapsed to record lows, according to surveys.
“A negative feedback loop between weak growth and soggy asset markets now appears to be in the making” at a time when the economy is “dangerously close to recession,” Mr. Fels said. “This should be aggravated by the prospects of fiscal tightening” as the stimulus ends later this year and budget cuts take hold.
The precipitous fall in consumer confidence in the past month was widely attributed to the unsettling budget struggle and is particularly foreboding for the economy, since consumer spending normally fuels about 70 percent of economic activity and was already weak for much of the year.
Thursday’s preliminary reports on retail sales during August suggested that consumers did not pull back as much on spending as feared despite the massive loss of confidence, which was focused on the political system rather than personal finances.
The University of Michigan, which has been tracking consumer sentiment for decades, noted an unprecedented “sense of despair and pessimism about the role of government” in its survey for August, while the Conference Board also attributed a dramatic drop in its confidence measure to political factors and the stock market rather than the usual worries about jobs.
country would be well-served by a better process for making fiscal decisions
Of course it would. Middle of the night, one page document and scare the $hit out of everyone either this or face collapse tomorrow. That’s how the “democracies” should work. Debates, what debates? Well, that’s for the banana republics….
Didn’t he get what he wanted with the “super congress” anyway? Expect super congress to make most of the decisions in the future. Politburo, here we come.
Harvard, Yale and Princeton. Bombs, Banks and Bailouts!
Lots of excellent, albeit depressing, commentary offered herein; and it seems like many agree with my assertion about a month ago that partisan wrangling over the debt ceiling was likely to derail the fledgling economic recovery. This will play into Republicans’ election prospects, unless the President successfully makes the case that the Tea Party deliberately tipped over the apple cart in order to sabotage the economy going into an election year.
September 2, 2011, 11:38 AM ET
Real Time Economics
Economic insight and analysis from The Wall Street Journal. Economists React: ‘Disturbing’ Way to Start Labor Day Weekend
…
–Wrangling in Congress and the eventual deficit deal underscored the inability of government to jump-start the labor market. Employers and consumers have lost confidence in the economy, with employers increasingly hesitant to hire and consumers fearful about the future. Rising costs have not helped nor has vanishing household wealth. –Sophia Koropeckyj, Moody’s Analytics
–It’s often said when it rains, it pours. That is an apt description of the August employment report and the likely path in the labor market later this year. Given slowing growth in the real economy there is little in the employment report to indicate a pickup in job creating heading into the final 16 weeks of 2011. –Joseph Brusuelas, Bloomberg
Employers are hesitant to hire US workers period good times or bad. It was only the housing bubble that kept unemploment from spiking over the last 20 years.
I realize my posts are myopically focused on the jobs report, which may seem slightly out of place on a blog about the housing market. However, I reiterate what pundits keep telling us, a point on which I happen to agree:
WITH NO JOBS, THERE WILL BE NO HOUSING REBOUND.
America’s Jobs Crisis With zero jobs, recession risk just got worse
By Chris Isidore @CNNMoney
September 2, 2011: 2:37 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — As if Friday’s report that showed job creation at a dead stall wasn’t bad enough, economists say the worst could be yet to come.
That’s because high unemployment could be a warning sign — and the cause — of the country falling into a double dip recession.
Most economists weren’t ready to call a new recession yet. But many were raising the odds of one.
They’re worried because weakness in the labor market can lead businesses and households to pullback on spending. And that is the worst thing possible for an economy where overall growth has slowed to nearly zero.
“When employment drops, incomes fall. When income falls, sales fall. When sales fall, production falls. When production falls, employment falls,” said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute.
It’s not only jobs ,but you also need decent wages for people to be able to buy .
You hear a lot of talk on the MSM right now about how people need to
accept huge cuts to their former pay in spite of it not being enough for their basic obligations .
How does lower wages solve the problem of debt that people owe and need to pay off ? How do lower wages make it possible for people to afford Health costs that continue to rise ?
As I see it you have a decoupling of wages from the cost of living going on .
People couldn’t afford all this debt to begin with ,let alone with lower wages .
I think its absurd to conduct a analysis of what is wrong without a analysis of what factors are present that is making it impossible for
USA workers to come up from this recession . Prices aren’t falling in sink with wages falling (except housing ) ,but rents aren’t that low .
Ann Coulter’s ramblings about ending unemployment and minimum wage so people will go get a job making whatever they can, isn’t going to put a bottom under houseing.
You are not going to clear the market of $150K houses with $3 an hour jobs.
At some point many in the Ann Coulter camp are going to have an Oh sht moment and realize that their fortunes were tied to a strong middle class as well.
I was talking to a guy yesterday, he was like “dam liberal press this and dam liberal that”. The guy had made his living building engines for a company that has since outsourced most of those jobs. His buddy was the same and owned a car dealership that was treading water. Both of their sources of income were highly tied to a strong middle class, and now they are going poof. It’s easy to get them to see that part of the equation but more difficult to get them to agree on a solution. Suprisingly they were not agains VAT tarriffs cutting the payroll tax when I mentioned this as part of the solution.
Bubbles suck money out of the middle class and direct them to the Wall Street elite.
I actually heard Maria Bartiromo say that the boom/bust cycle was not a bad thing. As long as you have inside information, you could stand to profit from them.
“At some point many in the Ann Coulter camp are going to have an Oh sht moment and realize that their fortunes were tied to a strong middle class as well.”
No they won’t. Ever.
Ever.
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Comment by Housing Wizard
2011-09-03 21:22:33
I have a neighbor that eats up all that FOX News PR campaign of what can you do for the rich BS .
They think that all charity/welfare can be done by volunteers .
We wouldn’t of developed some of the government programs to begin with had it been solved by volunteers .
Right ,put as much as you can in the hands of rich Corporations and the elite 5 % and somehow out of the goodness of their heart they will supply all the Social welfare needs with all the doe they amass and they will do it on a volunteer basis .
While the Republicrats will ensure that their bankster patrons escape any consequences or accountability for their massive fraud and criminality, foreign investors and law enforcement may not be so forgiving.
The Daily Telegraph understands the crime-fighting agency is actively investigating billions of pounds of complex mortgage-backed securities, including Goldman Sachs’s notorious “Timberwolf” transaction.
The $1bn package of mortgages sold by Goldman in 2007 has already led to a number of lawsuits and investigations in the US.
The action by the SFO comes as details of potential lawsuits against major banks on both sides of the Atlantic emerged.
In the US, Bank of America, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank are all being targeted by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) over the sale of mortgage-backed securities.
In the UK, Barclays, HSBC and Royal Bank of Scotland are expected to be named in US legal papers.
While I would be delighted and encouraged to see the rule of law assert itself over High Finance and its corruption of the political process, I’m expecting more of the same: sham investigations followed by slap-on-the-wrist penalties that forever absolve the guilty parties from criminal penalties or accountability.
Kinda funny how they are targeting these crimes now when it’s likely that they are beyond the Statue of Limitations on some of these crimes at this point .
Token fines are the name of the game .
Now they are starting to do what they should of done from day one and that was to determine who are the liable parties with this faulty lending crime spree and all the mis-ratings on securities .
I heard the other day that the Banks want to put up 20 billion to settle with all the States for the trillions of potential loss from their
misdeeds . This would be a fraction of the potential loss .
Looking at how absurd the debt mania was and how false the
price was for real estate that was backing it ,combined with all the absurd leverage and other Wall Street Casino games ,it’s a historic
situation in that the loss is so big .
It seems the government has decided to go after the ABC’s of U.S. mortgage banking firms. This is a most interesting new development in the aftermath of the Housing Bubble collapse.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — The federal agency overseeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac filed lawsuits Friday against 17 financial institutions in an attempt to recover billions of dollars in losses from risky mortgage investments.
The lawsuits were filed against many of the nation’s largest Wall Street and financial firms, including Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase. (See full list at end of story.)
…
In the most recent action, the complaints were filed against the following institutions:
Ally Financial;
Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500);
Barclays Bank (BCS);
Citigroup (C, Fortune 500);
Countrywide Financial;
Credit Suisse Holdings (CS);
Deutsche Bank (DB);
First Horizon National (FHN);
General Electric (GE, Fortune 500);
Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500);
HSBC North America;
JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500);
Merrill Lynch/First Franklin Financial;
Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500);
Nomura Holding America;
Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS);
Societe Generale.
First Published: September 2, 2011: 5:20 PM ET
Edward J. DeMarco, head of the U.S. watchdog overseeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, says his job is protecting taxpayers. His critics think he’s undermining the government’s efforts to shore up the economy.
DeMarco’s Federal Housing Finance Agency today filed lawsuits seeking to recover billions of dollars from Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and 14 other lenders that sold bonds backed by flawed residential mortgages.
Financial stocks already shaken by a weak jobs report fell sharply on advance reports of the court action, as investors weighed the potential costs to the banks. That renewed the debate over the role of a regulator that has sometimes clashed with other housing agencies and with Treasury Department officials over what steps Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should take to improve the housing market.
“You see the consumer groups coming out saying, ‘Yay, yay, yay, let’s screw the banks,’” said Paul Miller, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets in Arlington, Virginia, in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “But when you do this, you’re extracting capital and liquidity from the housing market, which is a major negative.”
DeMarco, 51, has frequently reminded lawmakers that every move the agency makes is driven by its mission to “preserve and conserve” the assets of the two government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, which have drawn more than $171 billion in taxpayer aid since being seized by regulators in September 2008.
…
“When I bought mortgage securities…I always knew they were subject to refinancing,”…
My BS-ometer is flashing red. If the contractual agreements on the mortgages underlying MBS allowed refinancing of underwater loans, why haven’t the home owners already refinanced by now, given the Fed’s endlessly-extended super-low interest rate environment?
Disclaimer: Though I am interested in this debate, I don’t have a dog in the fight, as so far as I am aware, I own no MBS nor houses.
A top official at the Federal Reserve called for more aggressive action to help the housing market by allowing more homeowners to refinance and by converting some foreclosures into rental housing.
Home sales have been disappointing this year, with tight credit and weak demand making it harder for markets to absorb a steady stream of foreclosed properties.
“Clearly the market is not functioning as it should,” said Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke in a speech Thursday in Washington.
Though mortgage rates are hovering near the lowest levels in decades and the Fed pledged last month to keep interest rates close to zero for another two years, many Americans haven’t been able to refinance their home loans because they don’t have enough equity or they can’t qualify under rigid standards.
Ms. Duke said that policy makers should consider enhancing an existing White House program designed to facilitate more refinancing of loans guaranteed by government-supported mortgage firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Allowing more homeowners to take advantage of low interest rates to reduce their monthly payments could both lower the risk of future defaults and boost the weak U.S. economic recovery.
The White House is working on similar proposals, but they need either the cooperation of Congress or the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates Fannie and Freddie and has been more skeptical of loan-assistance programs that have big upfront costs for the two.
Some bondholders have been critical of the idea of spurring a new round of refinancing, arguing it would be unfair to them because they stand to lose billions if performing loans are refinanced at lower rates. Critics also say that such intervention could also create uncertainty that would raise rates for future homeowners.
Ms. Duke dismissed those concerns by pointing to her previous banking career experience. “When I bought mortgage securities…I always knew they were subject to refinancing,” she said.
…
“When I bought mortgage securities…I always knew they were subject to refinancing,” she said.
Sure, they are subject to refinancing due to market forces—but this is different. In this case, they are considering refinancing them not due to market forces, but due to government fiat.
Exactly my point; she appears to advocate federal abrogation of the private contracts which provided the basis for MBS owners’ purchase decisions.
I find it odd that an FOMC member would fail to see the problem with this approach: You can’t short-change private sources of loanable funds without jeopardizing the future viability of those sources. Does Ms. Duke propose to have the government serve as the sole source of future housing finance?
I find it odd that there is a 100% assumption that capital will not be lost, and therefore complaining about a lower rate of return than expected. It annoys me that nobody is scared about perhaps not getting their principal back due to those people defaulting.
As far as I know from my several mortgages I have had, the only rules are if you have a pre-pay penalty or not.
If you can refi, you can refi. Whether that refi is because you have positive equity, or the government agency already on the hook for the loss is willing to let you refi.
Again, the is a product of disconnecting risk from reward. The people collecting the interest aren’t on the hook for the loss. If they were in the hook, they would get to decide if there is a refi. Since they are not on the hook for the loss, the entity that is on the hook for the loss gets to decide.
You can’t buy a security that would not exist without government meddeling, then complain about governmetn meddeling. This is like buying a house next to the world’s busiest airport, then complaining about all the noise from the airplanes.
There is a LOT of that in my city and they get away with it. I’ve seen many businesses shut down because a residential developer built on the lots right next to them and the new homeowners complained and then sued. Successfully.
Q.” What can President Barack Obama or the Federal Reserve do to boost growth”?
A. “Not much”
~ That’s been my question for a long time, what is it that people expect Obama to do, to create jobs? I have never counted on any administration to do anything to “create” a job for me.
No telling what kind of clap-trap do nothing program they will come up with next. You can be sure it will cost a bundle and be very ineffective.
As you pointed out it may have come at a unbearable cost. I think the massive increase in Homeland Defense, DOD contractors, private prisons ect. worked well for the Bush and Reagan regimes as it employes millions of Americans and it serves the dual purpose of tamping down civil unrest. In a distant past there used to be massive labor strikes, even armed rebellion in the coal fields of the Appalachia mountains. Right now I’m watching a C-SPAN Palin/Tea Party rally. A lot of really angry people there that roar with applause and every mention of guns and ‘take back America’. Funny thing is the people they want to take it back from don’t have it. Those people, “The Poors” as Jon Stewart calls them own less than 2 1/2% of the total wealth in this country. http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-august-18-2011/world-of-class-warfare—the-poor-s-free-ride-is-over
End free trade, tariffs on money leaving the country, roll back tax changes to a 1950s style tax code (4% payroll and steep income with 90% top marginal rate), nationalized healthcare with cost/benefit justification needed for all procedures to bring our costs down 50%, bring home our troops and massive cuts to military spending of about 50%, use money saved on DoD and Medicare/caid to double SS benefits, double minimum wage…
In short, instead of making the rich richer and the poor poorer expecting that to create demand, flip it around and start making the rich poorer and the poor richer.
“End free trade, tariffs on money leaving the country, roll back tax changes to a 1950s style tax code (4% payroll and steep income with 90% top marginal rate)”
That might be an “only Nixon could go to China” scenario. Meaning it might take a Republican pres. and congress to to what you suggest. (2013 NYTimes headline–”President Perry: ‘We just lost the South”)
I’ve been catching up on my retail reading this morning:
Coldwater Creek (Women’s Apparel) had a 2nd qtr loss. IIRC, it wasn’t their first. Closing under preforming stores. I predict they are not long for this world or a much smaller chain with strategic store placement.
Chico’s and White House Black Market (same firm, IIRC) are next on the chopping block, imo.
All 3 retailers are way overpriced, imo.
Dollar Store segment is growing and doing well.
Oh, and Caruso cut a deal with Caesar’s on the strip for “Project Ling”. 3,000 construction jobs, and 1,500 perm jobs, albeit low paying. Do they need another mega attraction? (hint: tourists needed) LV is not my flavor.
BEWARE THIS HEADLINE.
“Feds May Confiscate Privately Held Gold and Silver Coins”
With the best of intentions, I have no doubt, Mr. Kurt Nimmo posted a piece Wednesday concerning the case that was lodged against Bernard von NotHaus charging him with manufacturing counterfeit money. The U.S. Attorney won the case some weeks ago and now stands ready to confiscate Mr. von NotHaus’s considerable stash of silver Liberty “Dollars”.
Nimmo concludes that if the federal government is going to take Mr. NotHaus’s silver coins it’s not unlikely the government will act at some point to take YOUR gold and silver coins.
A ruthless totalitarian government could, of course, barge into your house and take ALL your possessions - but on a scale of 1 to 10 the probability of that happening anytime soon in the U.S. is about 0.5 or less.
Here’s why your gold/silver coins will not be snatched by the government. 1/ Krugerrands, Eagles, etc., are NOT counterfeit. They are legal tender. Picture the U.S. Mint selling you silver and gold Eagles one day and coming into your house to take them back the next.
2/ References to the “confiscation” of gold in 1934 are misleading. The government did call in the gold but paid $20.67 for every ounce. It is entirely unlikely the Treasury Department would pay today’s price…more than $1,880.00… for every ounce of gold held by the people.
3/ The government has no more legal right to your lawfully acquired gold and silver coins that it does your wrist watch.
Conclusion: There is plenty of mischief being inflicted upon us by various levels of government, but confiscating Krugerrands and Eagles is not one.
There is some 5 billion ounces of gold above the ground. At $2000 per, that would be $10T. World governments aready own about $2T of that. Another $5T exists as jewelery, non-investment collectables. Only $2T is held as coins, bars, investment. The remainaing $1T is held as industrial stock, largely as unrepossessed scrap waitnig to be melted down and remaid into new jewelry.
So, unless they are coming after wedding rings, necklaces, pendants, etc… the amount of gold they’d need to take would be less than the US Fed Reserve’s current balance sheet.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — The August jobs report was dismal for plenty of reasons, but perhaps most striking was the picture it painted of racial inequality in the job market.
Black unemployment surged to 16.7% in August, its highest level since 1984, while the unemployment rate for whites fell slightly to 8%, the Labor Department reported.
“This month’s numbers continue to bear out that longstanding pattern that minorities have a much more challenging time getting jobs,” said Bill Rodgers, chief economist with the Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University.
Black unemployment has been roughly double that of whites since the government started tracking the figures in 1972.
Economists blame a variety of factors. The black workforce is younger than the white workforce, lower numbers of blacks get a college degree and many live in areas of the country that were harder hit by the recession — all things that could lead to a higher unemployment rate.
But even excluding those factors, blacks still are hit with higher joblessness.
“Even when you compare black and white workers, same age range, same education, you still see pretty significant gaps in unemployment rates,” said Algernon Austin, director of the Race, Ethnicity, and the Economy program at the Economic Policy Institute. “So I do think the fact of racial discrimination in the labor market continues to play a role.”
About 155,000 blacks got jobs in August, but the group’s unemployment rate still went up because those jobs weren’t enough to make up for all the people who started looking for work during the month.
However, the gain for whites of 211,000 jobs was enough to bring their unemployment rate down.
Because they know they would do even worse under any GOP leadership.
Seriously their other choice was Keating Five McCaine and Alaska Barbie.
I think they are smart enough to realize that trickle down economics is the equivalent of the emperors new clothes. The same can’t be said for many voting the other ticket who openly vote against their own economic interests.
What do you mean by that? Are food stamps currently unlimited in your view?
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Comment by jeff saturday
2011-09-03 15:20:29
“Are food stamps currently unlimited in your view?”
Unlimited no, record number of recipients yes.
From what others have posted fraud in the SNAP program doesn`t happen in other places. In Palm Beach County however, there is a ton of it. I would not ever want a family that needed assistance not to get it but like any other gov. program it looks to me like fraud and waste are out of control. In a lot of cases I think the social safety net has turned into a hammock.
By Huma Khan
May 31, 2011 11:48am
Congress Mulls Cuts to Food Stamps Program Amid Record Number of Recipients
ABC News’ Huma Khan reports: Congress is under pressure to cut the rapidly rising costs of the federal government’s food stamps program at a time when a record number of Americans are relying on it.
The House Appropriations Committee today will review the fiscal year 2012 appropriations bill for the Department of Agriculture that includes $71 billion for the agency’s “Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.” That’s $2 billion less than what President Obama requested but a 9 percent increase from 2011, which, critics say, is too large given the sizeable budget deficit.
A record number of Americans – about 14 percent – now rely on the federal government’s food stamps program and its rapid expansion in recent years has become a politically explosive topic.
More than 44.5 million Americans received SNAP benefits in March, an 11 percent increase from one year ago and nearly 61 percent higher than the same time four years ago.
Nearly 21 million households are reliant on food stamps.
Last time I looked the USDA had requirements to qualify.
But hey, let’s blame the unemployed for the fact that there are no jobs for them. It’s the American way!
Long live the super rich!
Comment by liz pendens
2011-09-03 18:24:28
Just being caustic in a frustraed way. I know several who are currently abusing the SNAP progam and I think its bullshit.
To the people defending the viability of the “safety net” for the unemployed: Aren’t the unemployed getting UE benefits for 99 weeks? Do they get food stamps too? Really? Who is paying for all the freebies?
Wouldn’t take food stamps if I was dying of starvation, but to each his own.
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-09-03 20:45:13
“Wouldn’t take food stamps if I was dying of starvation, but to each his own.”
A starving person would knock off their mother to relieve the gnawing pain of hunger. You couldn’t get further from the reality of starvation if you tried. Your contempt is stunning.
Comment by MightyMike
2011-09-03 21:15:49
“Are food stamps currently unlimited in your view?”
Unlimited no, record number of recipients yes.
The increase was due to the lousy economy, the vast increase in unemployment, etc. The current administration hasn’t extended the program. The number of people who are eligible has increased.
Comment by liz pendens
2011-09-03 21:23:21
….starving person wouldn’t knock of HIS own mother…
Your piss-poor grammar is stunning.
Comment by Carl Morris
2011-09-03 22:32:30
I thought his point was clear. Is the use of “their” really a grammatical error in that context? I use it that way all the time. I’m no grammar expert, though.
Comment by jeff saturday
2011-09-04 05:14:49
“But hey, let’s blame the unemployed for the fact that there are no jobs for them. It’s the American way!”
What Immigrants need to know about SNAP/FAP
Help Line. 1-800-481-4989 … Revised by: Michigan Immigrants Right Center. Food Assistance Program. SNAP. FAP … Do I have to be a legal resident to … holders for more than 5 years or hold another … benefits. DHS can only report to. Immigration if they have seen a paper … stating that the person is here illegally such …
Are illegal immigrants able to get food stamps?
Just wondering.
Technically no. But when my brother applied and they denied him because his income was too high with the TWO jobs he apparently had, we realized a problem. There was an illegal who was using my brother’s social to get over $600 a month in food stamps and health care for all of his illegal children. He reported to the state that he worked at a construction company. Well, when my brother applied, he reported to the state that he worked for big lots and the state assumed that meant he had two jobs, one at a construction company and one at big lots, so they denied him for being over income. Well, when we went into DES and the picture and finger prints they had on file was of a 5′2″ mexican man and not a 6′3″ white man, they quickly figured it out.
Had my brother not applied for government assistance, this illegal immigrant and all his children would still be paid for with my tax money
And you’ll be happy to know my brother found a new job and no longer needs government assistance.
My personal opinion is that yes illegal immigrants get and use food stamps. I base that on their being the parent(s) of a qualifying child(ren), that they would be the ones who not only receive these benefits but are the ones who would primarily be the ones most likely to be shopping and paying for the food items.
Below is found from the above’s “Click on the Learn More! Links on the left.”
“Who can apply?”
“All Arizona residents can apply.
If you are under age 18, you may apply for yourself and your children. However, if you are living with a parent(s), you must include your parent(s) as part of your household.
If you are an immigrant, you can apply for your U.S. citizen children. You can also apply for yourself, but you may only be eligible for limited benefits.
You can apply for a person or household as their representative.
You can have someone else apply for you as your representative.”
I’m confused on one thing…if they noticed that he had “two jobs” when your brother applied, why didn’t they notice he had “two jobs” when the illegal alien applied using the same SSN?
Base search on Realtor.com starting with 33458 shows 361 single family 3/2 Listings Found. Up until the last couple of months there have been at least 430 listings and usually more. For 33458 RealtyTrac shows 392 pre-foreclosure 55 auction and 201 bank owned which I know is low because my last rental never showed on RT and they didn`t pay the mortgage for at least 2 1/2 years. This massive winner picking life altering BS game that is being played is not making me feel too good about the $1,700 check I am writing for rent that brings my total rent payments since Oct. 2005 to about $120,000.00 to LLs who have for the most part not paid their mortgage and been bailed out by MY government.
There was an unexpected development in the nice, early 20th century neighborhood in Central Texas that is one of the two I watch. It has an unusual mix of 1920s cottages and mansions in a variety of styles. The people with 4000 sq. ft. exquisitely remodeled homes are still trying to get $100 per square foot. Meanwhile, there’s a 1950s home in foreclosure (2700 sq. ft, $150k right now) that has killed the market for similar homes. There are now a number of them for between $150k and $170k, but I still haven’t seen one I like in a location I like. That’s the background.
The news is that while a bunch of listings have gone off the market for the fall, a new one has just appeared. It’s early 1950s 3/2 for $135k, Zillow says it’s over 2400 sq. ft. and there are beautiful live oak trees on a large lot. It’s on a less busy street, more interior location than the houses going for $150k-170k. That’s the good news. The bad news is that it backs to a large apartment complex, they included no interior photos, and based on the euphemistic language in the ad (something about adding your personal touches), I take it that it has been virtually untouched since the Eisenhower administration. The people who want $100 per square foot (for their admittedly lovely homes) have got to be dying inside right now, because it’s getting to the point in that neighborhood that you could buy three so-so houses there (live in one, rent out the two others) for the same price as one 4000 sq. footer.
It will be interesting to see when the $100 a square foot people start cracking. Maybe this spring? We have to move out of our rental in spring 2012, so it’s a matter of some interest to me.
The median sales price for homes in Detroit MI for May 11 to Jul 11 was $65,000. This represents a decline of 6.9%, or $4,784, compared to the prior quarter and a decrease of 8.9% compared to the prior year. Sales prices have depreciated 15% over the last 5 years in Detroit. The average listing price for Detroit homes for sale on Trulia was $39,824 for the week ending Aug 24, which represents a decline of 19.1%, or $9,381, compared to the prior week and a decline of 12.5%, or $5,715, compared to the week ending Aug 03. Average price per square foot for Detroit MI was $69, a decrease of 4.2% compared to the same period last year. Popular neighborhoods in Detroit include Indian Village, North Rosedale Park, Morningside, Palmer Woods, Bagley, and Rosedale Park.
We cruised by this afternoon and there was an estate sale going on at the 3/2 house for $135k. We dropped in and as expected, it was “original” and cave-like on the inside, with low ceilings and a choppy floorplan. Based on the estate sale items, I don’t think the residents had purchased anything except food after 1971. I’m a bit surprised the heirs didn’t try for $150k, but it’s probably worth it to them to move the house quickly, especially with it being early September right now. All in all, I think they’re wise not to be greedy.
I forget if I told this story, but a couple blocks away, there used to be two big remodeled 4000 sq. footers for sale. One was owned by well-respected, high-quality contractors who specialize in these older homes. Right next door were his clients, in a similar house. At one point, the contractors had their house for sale for $430k while the clients had theirs priced at $440k. The contractors’ house is off the market now (sold?), while the clients’ house is priced at $430k. And still it sits.
So, at the moment, there’s a gaping chasm between the prices on the 1950s houses and the renovated mansions.
Under pure capitalism prices would be base on supply and demand and demand would be based on wages . From about 1995 onward wages started
falling more and more verses inflation . From about 2000 onward we got major price increases in a number of industries but debt was used to pay for it from the wealth effect of fake real estate prices .
So ,I’m saying that industry got the benefit of the price inflation that was based on debt and faulty lending and the wealth effect from inflated
real estate ,rather than wages rising .
So, how are people to pay for all this debt obligation they obtained or maintain any standard of living if the prices stay high in all areas ?
Industry feels they are entitled to their profit margins yet there shouldn’t be any assurance of a static profit margin or profit margins that reflect good times rather than a recession .
It seems like everything is done to reflect a good stock market price for all these Companies . Wall Street should be a reflection of the economy ,not the reason for pricing or wage decrease or outsourcing or
out-manufacturing .
The current situation is a low wage monopoly that was brought on by
Globalism .
I’m just a firm believer in closed economic systems .otherwise you get the situation like we have now in which Companies are forced into taking their jobs and manufacturing to other Countries .
Small business can’t compete with the Big Multi-National price fixing monopolies either anymore .
The average worker in American can’t afford 1500 a month health insurance and 30 k small cars and 3 thousand a month for a standard house and all the other costs that keep rising ,along with wage decrease .
Industry doesn’t want to decrease the prices ,they just want to decrease wages and benefits and do all the outsourcing and out-manufacturing
they can .
My cable company has increased the price 100percent in the past 5 years in spite of the USA being in a recession and people being able to afford less .
Costs are decoupled from wages and that gained a lot of steam with
the fake housing boom and the faulty live by debt BS . Keeping up with inflation was bad enough already before the debt bomb /housing mania
came upon us .
I don’t see how it’s going to work given the situation and all the decoupling from wages that is going on .
My cable company has increased the price 100percent in the past 5 years in spite of the USA being in a recession and people being able to afford less.
This industry is becoming the target of something called “cord cutting.” Meaning that people are giving up the cable TV and finding their favorite programming other ways.
ISTR reading an NYT article by a guy who created a cable-free TV setup using various computer hardware components. It cost him about $500, and that was a onetime cost. No more monthly cable bills.
Unless he’s using p2p to download all shows he’s probably using services like Netflix and Hulu which charge monthly fees. There’s also the issue of cable Internet access being bandwith limited for most people. If he starts watching too much video online he’ll be throttled and charged more for data. The cable companies have much of the US by the gonads.
“The 1980s was when offshoring jobs really took off.”
Correct and in a very big way. 1981-1982 is when we first saw it in New England and the race to the bottom was on. I recall in 1984 the paper mill my entire family worked(and jerked cows on the side) at advertised for 30 jobs. 1200 people showed up. This is in backwoods VT, obviously unprecedented at the time. And it’s been all uphill since. Spare no quarter, no holds barred corporatism. You can deny it, you can apologise for it, you can run from it but we’ve had 30 years of class warfare and the corporate elite have won. It ought to be self-evident by now but there are the paid hacks who continue to pander for the corporate elite and plenty of dumb folk who fall for it.
We’ve been robbed of economic opportunity and it’s time we demand its’ return.
So Ariz, Slim ,if you have 1/2 the customers you had you simply charge the remaining customers 100% more .
Is this going to be the wave of the future in pricing ? It’s actually price fixing . What ever happened to just making a small profit on a volume business .
There was only a 10 dollar difference between the different cable companies for the same service I want on the choices I had . My neighbor got a 20% discount from what I had to pay because she is a new customer ,but they are going to raise the price to my price in a year .
But you don’t have to get cable with it. Just like you don’t have to get a land line just because you have DSL.
I’m thinking that pretty soon cell phone data plans will be good enough for most people, so they’ll just get a tethering plan and get rid of dedicated internet service. Except that they keep wanting to download movies in HD and that could take a little longer to get for free from a cell phone provider. I notice now that speeds are getting faster they are getting rid of “unlimited data” plans…
Market View for San Diego Avg. Listing Price $551,978
Wk ending Aug 24 +$567 +0.1% w-o-w
Median Sales Price $313,423
May ‘11 - Jul ‘11 -$11,577 -3.6% y-o-y
6,167 Homes For Sale
76 Open Homes
11,048 Recently Sold 5,174 Foreclosures
Real estate prices should not of risen from 2000 to 2007 because wages didn’t rise during that time period . You might give some leeway because interest rates were lower , but that would not account for the rise that
took place .
Nobody was talking about how what happened was even possible . Being
retired I assumed that wages went up during that time period .
That being said . the Power Brokers want to pick and choose who the winners and losers are .
“Power Brokers want to pick and choose who the winners and losers are”
Since the dawn of time. Nothing new here…. except…
The Internet. The Internet is the game changer. This blog is a perfect example. It takes the power (limited access to important information) out the hands of the few and gives it to the many.
It’s bad juju to come down too hard on a spouse when something bad happens and it’s their fault. This past year, I did something dumb with our car in a parking lot and got several talkings to from my husband (it left only a small scrape, but it was VERY dumb). Fast forward a month or two and he drives into a pole at our local Dairy Queen (also while parking), leaving a big crunched area near a headlight.
Muggy, just bank it for the next time you do something dumb.
(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Muggy
2011-09-03 17:24:52
“Muggy, just bank it for the next time you do something dumb.”
It’s not as serious as you’re taking it. My wife did cry, but it’s really no big deal.
It’s more that, well, some accidents and mistakes are easy to foresee and predict. I had never thought, “huh, what happens when your kid leaves a crayon in her pocket, and it makes it all the way to the dryer.” Now I know.
FWIW, last year my waterproof phone made it all the way through the washer, no problems.
Excellent advice which all happy husbands should learn to follow.
But some times the opportunity to break this unwritten rule is just too enticing! Like the other night, when upon returning home from an evening constitutional, I found my teenage son lying on the floor near my wife, whose angry expression suggested a major cold war was underway. I dared to suggest that she might have more luck helping my son write his English paper if she looked at him and engaged him in conversation, rather than seething in silent rage and ignoring him while working through her e-mail.
Let’s just say I am unlikely to get lucky this weekend, thanks to my big mouth…but I am still debating whether it was worth it.
“…some accidents and mistakes are easy to foresee and predict…”
Such as when your teenage daughter wrecks your wife’s car while trying to park it as your wife tries to offer helpful parking advice from the passenger’s seat?
It’s better in my household. My wife hates doing dishes, so I do them. She shoulders most everything else around the house except for hard math and science homework questions. And since we rent, don’t own, NO YARD WORK!!!
It is so easy to criticize a spouse who makes a small mistake, medium mistake, or large mistake.
But it does not solve the problems. Best to give the wife a hug, tell her is not a big problem, and working together you could get it fixed without the world coming to an end.
My wife let the water overflow from the bathroom above my radio room, and I just went upstairs , turned off the water , and she helped me clean up the water. So the downstair dropped ceiling has water stains and there might be something wrong that will come up later.
“The average worker in American can’t afford 1500 a month health insurance and 30 k small cars and 3 thousand a month for a standard house and all the other costs that keep rising ,along with wage decrease .
Industry doesn’t want to decrease the prices ,they just want to decrease wages and benefits and do all the outsourcing and out-manufacturing they can . ”
One of the problems with this statement is that the industry must lower their production costs to offer a lower sale price. And that is difficult to do in many industrys as labor costs are such a large part of production costs.
If you are paying workers $30-50 an hour for line production work, your sale prices reflect that cost. You can not expect an company to lose money by retaining high labor cost line workers.
It really is, in my opinion, the importation of goods from low labor companies forcing the local companies to the wall on profit losses.
I remember the first time I saw a Volkswagen in 1954 and how impressed I was with the quality of the import car, and looking at equivilent American Cars the difference was significant.
I , for one, blame California’s Prop 13 for the property costs increasing.
My thoughts are as followed.
Prop 13 limited the taxs to 1.25( approximately) of the valuation of the property.
this lower the taxes of a $30,000 home to $375 per year or $30 a month from the previous $750 a year or $60 a month.
This made more buyers able to qualify for the $30,000 home, increasing the demand. Realtor immedialely saw that would allow them to sell the home for more than $30,000.
Atypical buyer for a $30,000 home would, before Prop 13 have an income of $10,000 and be able to pay $3.300 a year for pit+maintence.
Dropping the taxes the buyer would be able to pay about $31,500 for the same home. More, or less, folks
Now the brokers drove the home prices up as demand increased, and what followed was escalation as sellers sold their old houses bought new one, bigger better, nicer.
Name:Ben Jones Location:Northern Arizona, United States To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
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So this smart guys solution is to keep pumping…No matter that “it” will not “fix” the core problems. Just do it!
We Are in ‘Worse Situation’ Than in 2008: Roubini
Friday, 2 Sep 2011 | CNBC.com
The world’s developed economies are trapped at the “stall speed” of low growth and need to have greater fiscal stimulus and less austerity to kick-start growth, leading economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC Friday.
Speaking at the Ambrosetti Forum on the shores of Lake Como, near Milan, Roubini said in an interview: “We are in a worse situation than we were in 2008. This time around we have fiscal austerity and banks that are being cautious.”
Roubini, known for his bearish views on the world economy, thinks that there is a 60 percent chance of a second recession imminently. Economic data of recent weeks presents a mixed picture.
On Thursday, the US government announced that jobless claims dropped by 11,000 to 409,000 last week. Friday’s employment report in the US is expected to show a gain of only 75,000 nonfarm jobs during August, with the unemployment rate steady at 9.1 percent.
Recent surveys point to slumping business and consumer confidence across the developed world.
Asked if there was still a chance the developed economies could avoid recession, Roubini said: “That’s very optimistic if you look at the data.”
“The hard economic data (which has come out recently) is all relevant to July while the soft data which has come out is for the future and that’s all moving in the wrong direction,” he added.
He also believes that a third round of quantitative easing in the US may not have the desired long-term effects, and that further fiscal stimulus across Europe and the US will be needed.
“The market may rally but unless the real economic data moves with asset prices, then eventually asset prices are going to go,” he said. “Last year the economic data was already improving when QE2 was introduced.”
“We are in a worse situation than we were in 2008. This time around we have fiscal austerity and banks that are being cautious.”
We are lucky to have at least one MSM-quoted economist who doesn’t paint lipstick on pigs. But it is a shame the MSM always yields to its bizarre proclivity to discredit Roubini by referring to him as ‘Dr Doom’ and such. When you get down to it, haven’t Roubini’s dire predictions proven considerably more on target throughout the duration of the Great Recession than those of the bandwagon full of ditto-head Pollyannas the MSM regularly quotes?
But it is a shame the MSM always yields to its bizarre proclivity to discredit Roubini by referring to him as ‘Dr Doom’ and such.
The half-dozen conglomorates that own the MSM news outlets have a vested interest in promoting the “recovery is just around the corner” meme to lull the sheeple into continuing to consume and “invest” in our Ponzi markets and TBTF bank-peddled financial instruments. Naysayers who tell the truth, e.g. Ron Paul, HAVE to be discredited and marginalized, or too many people will start to wake up.
‘No matter that “it” will not “fix” the core problems.’
If you somehow severed a finger, would you put on a tourniquet, or just ignore the problem, as “it” would not “fix” the core problem of a severed finger?
Just curious…
This horse has been beaten into dust. The problem is insolvency not liquidity. So Roubini is not correct in the sense that to keep pumping will solve this monetary issues. It has not and will not, but that won’t stop the pumpers from pumping. When it all comes crashing down at some future date, it will be very,very ugly.
“The problem is insolvency not liquidity.”
There it is, there is the situation laid out as plain as it can be stated for anyone who cares to take a look.
This insolvency will result in a lot of major financial poofs. Those folks who are on the wrong end of these poofs are hosed.
Debts incurred due to borrowed money will be poofed.
Debts incurred due to promised money will also be poofed.
The only recourse to the individual is to somnehow make sure he is not on the wrong end of these poofs.
He should not rely on anyone else but himself to make this determination, especially he should not rely on anyone in Congress to make this determination.
“The problem is insolvency not liquidity.”
Here’s a question for combo and wmbz, (with a request that getstucco/professor bear/cantankerous refrain from chiming in as this is directed to combo and wmbz)-
Please elaborate on the definitions and differences between insolvency and liquidity. Based on you answer, please provide evidence of insolvency that is congruent with your definitions.
I’m not trying to be a smart-ass here. I’m asking the question in the spirit of moderation and getting blog readers all on the same page.
Thanks.
Now and then the Fed wants to slow down the pace of the economy and so it acts to make money expensive to borrow - it acts to cause interest rates to rise. It’s not as if businesses and individuals cannot borrow, it’s just becomes expensive for them to do so. This is an issue of liquidity; The value of the assets that stand behind the loans are not questioned it’s just the cashing out this unquestioned value is made expensive.
But when the value of the assets ARE questioned then people cannot borrow money no matter what the interest rates are. This is an issue of solvency.
And this is where we are now. Asset values are falling. These assets are what back loans. Banks don’t want to make loans that are backed by assets that have falling values, so they don’t.
But bank loans are what puts money into the economy. And right now the banks are not putting money into the economy, but still they continue to collect loan payments from previous loans that they made - which has a net result of banks sucking money out of the economy.
So there it is: Borrowed money goes into buying things. Buying things keeps the prices of these things up. Prices that are kept up act as equity that banks will loan money against. It works until it doesn’t.
“Banks don’t want to make loans that are backed by assets that have falling values, so they don’t.”
The simple solution would seem to be allowing the asset values to fall to levels where banks are once again willing to lend.
“…with a request that getstucco/professor bear/cantankerous refrain from chiming in as this is directed to combo and wmbz…”
Sorry, my hand slipped!
And the problem of insolvency doesn’t stop at making new loans. The values of previous loans is questioned if the assets that back these previous loans are questioned.
A lot of people depend on being paid what they are owed or what they are promised. Much of the economy also depends on these people being paid what they are owed or what they are promised. Spending screeches to a halt in those areas where owed and promised money is not paid out.
Much of this owed and promised money is just not there. It’s supposed to be there, but it isn’t. It’s supposed to be backed by assets (i.e. pensions, annuities) or by future tax receipts (i.e. Social Security) but is isn’t, a large part of it at least.
What each person needs to understand, IMO, is that the economic problem we face today is one of insolvency, not one of liquidity.
But during out lifetimes we have been conditioned by previous liquidity crisises to expect all financial crisises to be immediately resolved once the money spigot is again turned on by the Fed. This means we have been conditioned to buy the dips.
But buying the dips results in financial suicide in a insolvency crisis because such a crisis is much different than a liquidity crisis and thus simply turning on the money spigot won’t fix it.
+1
Liquidity problem is when you’ve emptied your checking account and maxxed your credit cards, but still have sufficient income or assets to make payments on your bills. You just need to slow your spending until you rebuild your reserves.
Insolvancy is when your bills are so large and assets and income so small, that you can’t make your payments. The people that you owe are about to find out they aren’t as well off as they thought they were.
Of course, Roubini isn’t calling for more ‘pumping’, he’s calling for more stimulus- a distinction that some here apparently cannot grasp.
“…to keep pumping will solve this monetary issues…”
Nobody ever said a tourniquet would solve a severed finger, either. But at least you can stanch the bleeding. Unless you don’t mind bleeding to death, that is…
P.S. I realize the GOP may have in mind a strategy to bleed the economy just enough to enable them to stick the blame on Obama. It’s transparently obvious, but perhaps if a majority of U.S. voters can’t see it…
“…with a request that getstucco/professor bear/cantankerous refrain from chiming in as this is directed to combo and wmbz…”
Sorry, my hand slipped!
Yeah, right… whatever. In my not so humble opinion, you post a truly disproportionate amount here on the HBB. I had a feeling it was futile to request you to refrain from commenting. I don’t believe you have the ability to do so.
“In my not so humble opinion, you post a truly disproportionate amount here on the HBB. I had a feeling it was futile to request you to refrain from commenting. I don’t believe you have the ability to do so.”
I like to comment, especially on Combo’s and wmbz’s posts. You are not the moderator of this blog, and Ben is free to ask me to stop posting any time, or to simply not display anything he finds inappropriate.
I intend to continue commenting when I think I have something to add to the discussion. In case you don’t believe you have the ability to ignore my posts, I suggest you get the Joshua Tree Extension and set it to not display them.
Happy Labor Day to you!
Cantankerous Professor “Don’t Get Stucco” Bear
I for one, am grateful for people like Professor Bear, Polly and many others over the years, for posting on this blog.
Their comments and insights have been very enlightening and informative.
You read it here, then maybe many months or years later, you see it in the MSM and then start to hear it from the occasional politician or policymaker.
“Economic data of recent weeks presents a mixed picture.”
We are not retreating, we are advancing in another direction.
A flying aircraft will stall if the airspeed drops below the point at which lift is developed. A stall is preceded by a warning “buffet” (yes, we just had a warning Buffet) at which point the pilot only has a single choice to recover from the stalled condition. That choice is lowering the nose of the airplane and adding power in an attempt to gain airspeed. Altitude will be lost, there is no avoiding it (the economy will suffer in the near term), but without the necessary sacrifice in altitude in exchange for an increase in airspeed the stall will become unrecoverable and an uncontrolled spin will ensue. A spin is a violent manouver in which a far greater amount of altitude is lost in a much shorter period of time than a simple stall recovery and some spins are completely irrecoverable. The proximity of terrain (the ground) is of particular concern during any stall manouver and due to inherent altitude loss, stalls close to the ground are often fatal.
Bernanke is not a pilot (obviously).
Obama is not either (but he may have stayed in a Holiday Inn Express recently).
“That choice is lowering the nose of the airplane and adding power in an attempt to gain airspeed. Altitude will be lost, there is no avoiding it (the economy will suffer in the near term), but without the necessary sacrifice in altitude in exchange for an increase in airspeed the stall will become unrecoverable and an uncontrolled spin will ensue.”
The housing market analogue of this strategy would be to allow home prices to fall to the point where buyers were willing and able to start buying homes again. At that point, the flow of new housing market transactions would increase the local economic airspeed, buoying regional industries and avoiding an uncontrolled death spiral to the ground. Affordable housing prices, in balance with local incomes and rental rates, would be a further desirable outcome.
And no taxes would need to be raised to fund this jobs creation program, as all the economic potential energy to make this happen is stored in the artificially-high nominal market values of those millions of vacant homes currently withheld from the market. The only necessary precaution would be to release the energy quickly enough to get the housing market back on its feet without accidentally creating a catastrophic inventory flood.
Maybe if house prices fall enough and car prices fall proportionally, along with fuel prices falling below 78 cents per gallon, I would decide to stay in one place instead of move around the country every year or two.
It just does not make economic sense for me right now to chain myself to one community.
If we are to have average annual salaries of $35,000 (which is the trend our country is moving to) then those big ticket items have to fall commensurately. Until that happens, there will be several million empty houses rotting and tens of thousands of $40,000 autos parked on the docks in places such as Long Beach, Ca.
I hope the fence sitters continue to wait it out and eat popcorn. Our economic power is real. As long as we refuse to have financial obligations, we have the power to make prices fall.
Let those empty stucco boxes rot! They will make the big bank stocks eventually take a huge hit. Reality is a solid steel wrench.
My Tempe (Phoenix) Toyota dealer lately has been flooding my mailbox there with letters asking me to consider trading in my eight year old (8 years plus 5 months) Toyota economy car on a new 2011 or 2012 model. They say my car is in high demand (should be. Only has 61,000 miles on it) and that it would attract a high resale price. But it still runs well. Why get another? They have also been flooding me with letters about extending my warranty. I think it’s a bunch of hogwash.
It’s nice to have no debt, everything paid off, and to have businesses beg you to buy a big ticket item you really don’t need, yet can buy several of the same unit with cash - or about 8 of them with gold at Friday’s spot price!
“It just does not make economic sense for me right now to chain myself to one community.”
There has never been a better time to be able to quickly relocate. Many Americans don’t have such flexibility, due to their being chained to homes with underwater mortgages. Others who rent may nonetheless be willingly anchored to jobs which are not portable or to communities where their kids have good opportunities and established communities of friends. The dearth of labor market and housing market liquidity is creating considerable headwinds for recovery prospects.
3 years ago I purchased a town and country minivan. I’ve put 30k on it and it appears that I can sell it now for about 1000 less than I paid.
Bernanke is tying to climb out of the stall with a huge power application (flood of printed money) along with steady back-pressure on the controls (gov sponsored price-fixing - first time buyer tax credit, cash 4 clunkers, etc) which simply doesn’t work once a stalled condition has been esablished. A violent accelerated stall (whip-stall) is the only result of such an action where the airplane suddenly snaps inverted and dives straight down in a sickening spiral. Most cerified aircraft are not structurally rated for whip-stalls and are placarded somewhere in the cockpit warning against such a manouver. Bernanke is well on his way to not only failing his check-ride, but recklessly endangering the safety of our capitalist democracy. Allowing deflation to stabilize demand with supply is the only correct (lowering the nose) response that will or ever has historically worked. A child could figue this out.
Is it possible that maybe Bernanke was trained at the Air France pilots’ school?
That choice is lowering the nose of the airplane and adding power in an attempt to gain airspeed.
Nah, we got a BIG stick, and we’re gonna just keep pulling back on it. It’s worked so far…
Even if the economy has reached stall speed (yet again)?
P.S. Leamer spectacularly failed to see the imminent collapse of the housing bubble, but this won’t prevent him from being wrong again on the double dip.
Stall Speed: An economist acknowledges that the U.S. economy has stalled, but says it hasn’t begun receding.
Preview | SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2011
Hold the Alarm: Next Stop, Slow Growth
By ROBIN GOLDWYN BLUMENTHAL
A UCLA professor sees no indication of a double-dip recession.
Investors alarmed by August’s downbeat jobs report, as well as the Philly Fed index and consumer-confidence gauges, could be forgiven for worrying that the economy is sliding into a double-dip recession.
But according to Ed Leamer, an economics professor at UCLA and chief economist for the Pulse of Commerce Index, their fears are misplaced.
“If it’s a recession, it’s a totally new kind of recession,” says Leamer, who notes that many indicators are single readings that rely on people’s opinions and are, to some extent, emotional. “It isn’t hard, real data,” he says. Moreover, the Philly Fed index encompasses a “tiny district,” that includes only eastern Pennsylvania, south Jersey and Delaware.
…
“If it’s a recession, it’s a totally new kind of recession,” says Leamer
Oh, I doubt that, Leamer. Maybe since you’ve started paying attention…
“Maybe since you’ve started paying attention…”
I really doubt that is the problem. It is more a problem of not wanting to offend any of the corporate donors who fund the UCLA Anderson School (i.e. Real Estate Industrial Complex members).
I say this because I recall reading a paper written by Leamer himself back in 2003 or so about the fact that the housing market’s rent-purchase price ratio was out of balance — i.e. U.S. homes had become so overvalued that they no longer penciled out as rentals. This was long before he started routinely offering MSM disclaimers about the very existence of a housing bubble.
Just in case, where can I get a parachute? Oh yeah I see all the guys in the first class section have theirs surgically attached
WMBZ: What do you mean by pumping?
Stillwater Investment Group files for bankruptcy
Eddie Fitzgerald - New Bern News
Stillwater Investment Group, LLC, in New Bern filed Friday in Wilson for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
Andy Bayliss, a majority owner of Stillwater Investment Group, and the owner and CEO of Tab Premium Built Homes, said the Chapter 11 was a restructuring and would not slow or stop the marketing of Sillwater Harbour, a single-family home community on Brice’s Creek of Marion Drive.
Tab Premium Built Homes is the preferred builder at Stillwater Harbour off of Marion Drive in New Bern but has no ownership interest in the property, according to Bayliss.
The Chapter 11 filing will not impact Tab, its customers or subcontractors, he said in a prepared statement. Bayliss issued his statements through Talk Inc., a public relations company in Wilimington.
“Tab Premium Built Homes is the market leader in luxury, custom home building in eastern North Carolina,” Bayliss said. “We are financially strong and poised for continued growth and success. As a businessman — and completely outside of my ownership interest in Tab Premium Built Homes — I have developed a number of successful residential developments over the years, such as The Vineyard, Gable’s Run and Long Leaf Pines.”
Stillwater Harbour was launched in 2007.
“ … Like so many other quality projects created during this time, it has been adversely affected by the recession,” Bayliss said. “I have always worked hard and fulfilled all of my financial commitments. But in the case of Stillwater Harbour, the lender recently changed the terms of our loan and I am left with little choice but to file Chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring on behalf of Stillwater Investment Group LLC, of which I am majority owner.”
The lender in the Stillwater Harbour venture was BB&T.
The Stillwater development already has all infrastructure and amenities, including water and sewer, curbs and gutters, paved roadways, landscaping and 12 boat slips.
Stillwater Harbour has 64 lots on more than 63 acres. There are 36 waterfront lots and 28 interior home lots. All lots have access to a protected deep water harbor marina with capacity for 100 boat slips. There is nearly 5 acres of green space throughout the community, including sidewalks, natural areas and open meadows. Prices for a home and lot in Stillwater start in the $300,000 range.
There is one model home on the site and one uncompleted home.
Self-Employed Struggle as U.S. Recovery Offers Few Opportunities
Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) — More than 1 million self-employed Americans are no longer in business almost four years after the last recession began, as the economy constrains entrepreneurial activity and small-business job creation.
The 18-month contraction that started in December 2007 initially resulted in more would-be business owners, as the number of people who work for themselves grew to 16.3 million in July 2008 from 15.7 million at the end of 2007, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since then, the total has fallen about 10 percent to 14.7 million in July, the data show.
Employer businesses — those that provide work for individuals including the founder — “have been starting in fewer numbers, with fewer workers and growing at a slower pace than in the past,” according to Robert Litan, a vice president at the Kansas City, Missouri-based Kauffman Foundation, which supports research on start-ups. “Therefore, these entrepreneurs are generating increasingly fewer new jobs for the U.S. labor market.”
The number of new employer businesses dropped 24 percent to 505,473 on an annual basis in 2010 from 667,341 in 2006, according to Litan, who co-wrote a report published in July on small-business job creation.
This has contributed to high unemployment as the economic recovery slows. The rate has remained above 9 percent for 25 of the past 27 months, falling to 9.1 percent in July from 9.2 percent in June, BLS statistics show. August data will be released September 2.
Obama’s Speech
President Barack Obama has said small companies can help spur expansion and will address a joint session of Congress on Sept. 8 to unveil plans to promote job growth. He told participants at a White House ceremony Aug. 29 that his proposals will include making it “easier” for entrepreneurs to hire people.
Small companies employ about half the private-sector labor force, so it’s “very difficult” for the jobless rate to improve when they’re “not doing well, because they are too big a part of the economy,” said Scott Shane, professor of entrepreneurial studies at Case Western Reserve University.
Their weakness is also “a very big problem” for office- supply retailers such as Staples Inc., Office Depot Inc. and OfficeMax Inc., which sell to small businesses, said Brad Thomas, an analyst with KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. in New York. Same-store comparative sales for this industry have stagnated at an average zero percent in the past two years, while other retailers experienced some rebound following recessionary declines, he said.
Missing Links
“One of the missing links in this recovery has been stronger small-business growth, which is hurting the sales” of these companies, said Thomas, who is relatively cautious about the sector and maintains “hold” ratings on Staples and Office Depot.
During the economic slump, so-called “necessity entrepreneurs” started businesses because they couldn’t find a job and needed to keep food on the table, said Litan. While their work may be “laudable,” these mainly unincorporated sole proprietors are less likely to be major employers than firms that hire other workers in their first year, he said.
Hmmmm, what an interesting story: People going into business for themselves because they can’t find jobs. So, they make their own employment, thus removing themselves from the job market.
Add to this, the lousy working conditions that accompany a lot of jobs, and you see quite a few voluntary entrepreneurs. They’re motivated to make their own jobs because they’ve had enough of the other kind.
If I may be so bold as to go out on a limb and make a prediction, here I go: I think we’re moving toward an economy that is kind of like the one we had before the rise of industrialization and large corporations. Back then, most people worked for themselves. If their businesses created jobs, they weren’t big job creators. They may have hired a neighbor boy to help out on the farm, but that was about it.
Self employment sucks in some ways. You pay both sides of social security, you get lonely thus you become a HBB addict, and your income better exceed your expenses (personal & business) or you’re OOB.
Being a self employed EE, 1/2 the projects are loss leaders, and having an Accounting background, your clients want too much free.
I’d rather be tucked away in a shopping center office, having tenants to deal with, and income per sq ft to master.
Self employment doesn’t work for everyone.
I miss my former life. Although, I don’t mess the spoiled housewives. Strange ducks.
Things are more like they are now than they ever were before.
- Dwight D Eisenhower
“While their work may be “laudable,” these mainly unincorporated sole proprietors are less likely to be major employers than firms that hire other workers in their first year, he said.”
A la Reservoir Dogs.
“More than 1 million self-employed Americans are no longer in business almost four years after the last recession began, as the economy constrains entrepreneurial activity and small-business job creation.
The 18-month contraction that started in December 2007 initially resulted in more would-be business owners, as the number of people who work for themselves grew to 16.3 million in July 2008 from 15.7 million at the end of 2007, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since then, the total has fallen about 10 percent to 14.7 million in July, the data show.”
If only these small businesses and entrepreneurs had access to some of that $4t or so in lending the Fed summarily doled out at rock-bottom interest rates in the wake of the Fall 2008 financial crisis!
Another tropical storm headed towards land seems an apt metaphor to match the state of the U.S. employment picture this Labor Day weekend.
P.S. It’s not “Obama’s fault” or “Bush’s fault.” Not all bad stuff that happens is some U.S. president’s fault. Anyone who thinks along these lines, please get yourself a life.
Tropical Storm Lee’s outer bands pelt US Gulf Coast as it trudges toward land
JANET MCCONNAUGHEY Associated Press
4:44 a.m. CDT, September 3, 2011
NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Lee were falling in southern Louisiana and pelting the Gulf Coast on Saturday as the storm’s center trudged slowly toward land, where businesses were already beginning to suffer on what would normally be a bustling holiday weekend. The storm could bring up to 20 inches (50 centimeters) of rain to some areas.
Tropical storm warnings were in effect from Mississippi to Texas, and flash flood warnings extended along the Alabama coast into the Florida Panhandle. The storm’s slow forward movement means that its rain clouds should have more time to disgorge themselves on any cities in their path.
Lee’s biggest impact, so far, has been in the Gulf of Mexico oil fields. About half the Gulf’s normal daily oil production has been cut as rigs were evacuated, though oil prices were down sharply Friday on sour economic news.
Federal authorities said 169 of the 617 staffed production platforms have been evacuated, along with 16 of the 62 drilling rigs. That’s reduced daily production by about 666,000 barrels of oil and 1.7 billion cubic feet of gas.
The storm was expected to make landfall on the central Louisiana coast late Saturday and turn east toward New Orleans, where it would provide the biggest test of rebuilt levees since Hurricane Gustav struck on Labor Day 2008.
…
Spaniards are trying to get accustomed to their version of Tea Party austerity measures.
Spain Caps Its Debt — Rest of the Euro Zone Be Warned
By Lisa Abend / Madrid Friday, Sept. 02, 2011
…
At their Aug. 16 summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy encouraged every member of the 17-state euro zone to work a debt ceiling into its constitution. Within a week, Zapatero had become the first leader to take their words to heart. He negotiated a pact with the lead opposition Popular Party (PP) that would reform the Spanish constitution to require every level of government — national, regional, and municipal — to limit its deficit. A separate law will allow the national government to accrue only 0.4% debt.
…
No one doubts the symbolic impact that the amendment will have, and Zapatero has already received support for the gesture from the OECD and ratings companies like Moody’s. But many analysts suggest that its real impact on the economy will be limited, not least because it allows governments to supersede the debt limits in times of crisis or other unusual circumstances. “There are a lot of ‘buts’,” says Soledad Pellón, market strategist for the Spanish branch of IG Markets, an international trading company. “It’s a very flexible piece of legislation, so I think it’s logical to expect that it will only be applied in years when the economy is doing okay.”
The pact, coming just three months before elections that Zapatero’s Socialist Party (PSOE) is widely expected to lose, took many by surprise. For one thing, the prime minister did not even consult members of his own party before agreeing to the reform. Even more surprising was the decision to rush the amendment — the first major change to the Spanish constitution since its creation in 1978 — through parliament.
“He really didn’t have a choice,” explains strategist Pellón. “In the past few weeks the Central European Bank has been buying up Spanish debt, which is a form of semi-rescue. And rescue packages always come with obligations.” (See if there’s a strategy behind Spain’s early elections.)
Perhaps so, but today several sectors of Spanish society are wondering if it was necessary to meet those obligations quite so quickly. On the floor of the congress and in the streets of Madrid, many of the smaller political parties, unions and members of the broad protest movement known as “The Indignant” are vociferously objecting to restrictions on regional autonomy and to the cuts in social welfare spending that will likely result from a stabilized budget. And more than anything they are rejecting the rapid imposition of the amendment without a referendum.
…
Spaniards are getting the bill for decades of socialist corruption, graft, and profligate fiscal policies.
Actually, I read somewhere that the Spanish government was running pretty small deficits before the economy crashed. The problem there was the housing bubble, in other words, individuals taking mortgages too big relative to their incomes.
Also, do you have any reason to believe that corruption and graft are a big problem in Spain?
Painful to the nattering nabobs of all nationalities (NNNs), austerity is a must in all the over-extended nations - nations of big government.
However “austerity” is painless to those who already lived their lives austerely, that is, well below their means. I was on a contractor blog years ago and one of the contractor’s signatures was “save in the good times so you can spend in the bad times.” Those days, in the early 2000s, they were “bad times” for contractors in industries that were dying. Pipe fitters? WTF are they? Do they put one end of a pipe into another end?
To those of us used to it, “austerity” will mean more of the same lifestyle we are accustomed to (yawn).
The world economies are contracting. It looks like the only last real stimulus will come from radical new technological advances, which happen every generation or two. Um, that may mean in 40 years from now
Hear Hear
We have not been affected by this contraction,The only area I am cutting back is charity as I have recently discovered how I wasted donating about $5000 last year was a very foolish mistake. I got taken for a ride. Lesson learned.
Originally published Friday, September 2, 2011 at 10:07 PM
Job push goes nowhere in bickering Congress
Congress’ two parties have radically different ideas about how to create the jobs they want, and they endlessly replay old arguments.
By David A. Fahrenthold
The Washington Post
WASHINGTON — This is the sound of a national conversation, going nowhere.
Members of Congress have said the words “create jobs” 1,236 times this year. Almost once for every hour Congress was in session, according to C-SPAN data. President Obama has said those same words at least 116 times. Almost every other day.
What they haven’t done is agree on a way to create them.
Instead, Republicans argued for less spending. Democrats argued for stimulating the economy. Congress agreed on almost nothing.
And Friday, that was what they got: almost nothing. New statistics showed zero net jobs created in August, which left the national unemployment rate at 9.1 percent.
…
Gee, I wonder why?
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68R40I20100928
Republicans block ending offshore jobs tax breaks | Reuters
Job growth stalls, fuels recession fears
By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON | Sat Sep 3, 2011 5:37am EDT
(Reuters) - Employment growth ground to a halt in August, reviving recession fears and piling pressure on both President Barack Obama and the Federal Reserve to provide more stimulus to aid the frail economy.
For the first time in nearly a year the economy failed to create new jobs on a net basis according to the Labor Department’s monthly nonfarm payrolls survey on Friday.
Economists had expected nonfarm employment to rise 75,000 last month but they cautioned against viewing the data as a surefire sign of recession.
A worsening debt crisis in Europe and an acrimonious political fight over the government budget and debt, which led Standard & Poor’s to strip the country of its AAA credit rating, ignited a massive stock market sell-off last month and sent business and consumer confidence tumbling.
“The economy is struggling against stiff headwinds, which appear to have intensified in recent months,” said Millan Mulraine, senior macro strategist at TD Securities in New York. “While it has clearly not fallen off the cliff, there is little to suggest it is anywhere close to regaining its momentum.”
…
See above.
Prospect of more battles over budget unnerves economists
By Patrice Hill
The Washington Times
Thursday, September 1, 2011
…
ASSOCIATED PRESS Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week that “The country would be well-served by a better process for making fiscal decisions.”
“The single-biggest risk facing both the United States and Europe is a policy mistake” that would take away stimulus that is helping to hold up growth, he said, noting that the budget impasse is threatening to prevent the extension of payroll tax cuts and other stimulus measures enacted at the end of last year.
Those measures are adding about 1 percentage point to economic growth this year — no small contribution when growth is running at less than 1 percent, he said.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke also warned last week that political machinations that led to the downgrade last month hurt the economy.
“The negotiations that took place over the summer disrupted financial markets and probably the economy as well,” Mr. Bernanke said in a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo. “The country would be well-served by a better process for making fiscal decisions.”
Many economists view Mr. Bernanke’s warning as understated, given the evidence of economic damage that is piling up by the day.
“The drama around the lifting of the U.S. debt ceiling has weighed down on financial markets and eroded business and consumer confidence,” said Joachim Fels, an economist at Morgan Stanley. Confidence in government in particular has collapsed to record lows, according to surveys.
“A negative feedback loop between weak growth and soggy asset markets now appears to be in the making” at a time when the economy is “dangerously close to recession,” Mr. Fels said. “This should be aggravated by the prospects of fiscal tightening” as the stimulus ends later this year and budget cuts take hold.
The precipitous fall in consumer confidence in the past month was widely attributed to the unsettling budget struggle and is particularly foreboding for the economy, since consumer spending normally fuels about 70 percent of economic activity and was already weak for much of the year.
Thursday’s preliminary reports on retail sales during August suggested that consumers did not pull back as much on spending as feared despite the massive loss of confidence, which was focused on the political system rather than personal finances.
The University of Michigan, which has been tracking consumer sentiment for decades, noted an unprecedented “sense of despair and pessimism about the role of government” in its survey for August, while the Conference Board also attributed a dramatic drop in its confidence measure to political factors and the stock market rather than the usual worries about jobs.
country would be well-served by a better process for making fiscal decisions
Of course it would. Middle of the night, one page document and scare the $hit out of everyone either this or face collapse tomorrow. That’s how the “democracies” should work. Debates, what debates? Well, that’s for the banana republics….
Didn’t he get what he wanted with the “super congress” anyway? Expect super congress to make most of the decisions in the future. Politburo, here we come.
Harvard, Yale and Princeton. Bombs, Banks and Bailouts!
Economists NEED to be unnerved… then fired and forcefully kicked to the curb.
Lots of excellent, albeit depressing, commentary offered herein; and it seems like many agree with my assertion about a month ago that partisan wrangling over the debt ceiling was likely to derail the fledgling economic recovery. This will play into Republicans’ election prospects, unless the President successfully makes the case that the Tea Party deliberately tipped over the apple cart in order to sabotage the economy going into an election year.
September 2, 2011, 11:38 AM ET
Real Time Economics
Economic insight and analysis from The Wall Street Journal.
Economists React: ‘Disturbing’ Way to Start Labor Day Weekend
…
–Wrangling in Congress and the eventual deficit deal underscored the inability of government to jump-start the labor market. Employers and consumers have lost confidence in the economy, with employers increasingly hesitant to hire and consumers fearful about the future. Rising costs have not helped nor has vanishing household wealth. –Sophia Koropeckyj, Moody’s Analytics
–It’s often said when it rains, it pours. That is an apt description of the August employment report and the likely path in the labor market later this year. Given slowing growth in the real economy there is little in the employment report to indicate a pickup in job creating heading into the final 16 weeks of 2011. –Joseph Brusuelas, Bloomberg
You’d never hear this from the WS
Employers are hesitant to hire US workers period good times or bad. It was only the housing bubble that kept unemploment from spiking over the last 20 years.
I realize my posts are myopically focused on the jobs report, which may seem slightly out of place on a blog about the housing market. However, I reiterate what pundits keep telling us, a point on which I happen to agree:
WITH NO JOBS, THERE WILL BE NO HOUSING REBOUND.
America’s Jobs Crisis
With zero jobs, recession risk just got worse
By Chris Isidore @CNNMoney
September 2, 2011: 2:37 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — As if Friday’s report that showed job creation at a dead stall wasn’t bad enough, economists say the worst could be yet to come.
That’s because high unemployment could be a warning sign — and the cause — of the country falling into a double dip recession.
Most economists weren’t ready to call a new recession yet. But many were raising the odds of one.
They’re worried because weakness in the labor market can lead businesses and households to pullback on spending. And that is the worst thing possible for an economy where overall growth has slowed to nearly zero.
“When employment drops, incomes fall. When income falls, sales fall. When sales fall, production falls. When production falls, employment falls,” said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute.
It’s a tough cycle to break.
…
It’s not only jobs ,but you also need decent wages for people to be able to buy .
You hear a lot of talk on the MSM right now about how people need to
accept huge cuts to their former pay in spite of it not being enough for their basic obligations .
How does lower wages solve the problem of debt that people owe and need to pay off ? How do lower wages make it possible for people to afford Health costs that continue to rise ?
As I see it you have a decoupling of wages from the cost of living going on .
People couldn’t afford all this debt to begin with ,let alone with lower wages .
I think its absurd to conduct a analysis of what is wrong without a analysis of what factors are present that is making it impossible for
USA workers to come up from this recession . Prices aren’t falling in sink with wages falling (except housing ) ,but rents aren’t that low .
Not just jobs.
Ann Coulter’s ramblings about ending unemployment and minimum wage so people will go get a job making whatever they can, isn’t going to put a bottom under houseing.
You are not going to clear the market of $150K houses with $3 an hour jobs.
You are not going to clear the market of $150K houses with $3 an hour jobs.
But just a few short years ago strawberry pickers were buying $750,000 houses…
At some point many in the Ann Coulter camp are going to have an Oh sht moment and realize that their fortunes were tied to a strong middle class as well.
I was talking to a guy yesterday, he was like “dam liberal press this and dam liberal that”. The guy had made his living building engines for a company that has since outsourced most of those jobs. His buddy was the same and owned a car dealership that was treading water. Both of their sources of income were highly tied to a strong middle class, and now they are going poof. It’s easy to get them to see that part of the equation but more difficult to get them to agree on a solution. Suprisingly they were not agains VAT tarriffs cutting the payroll tax when I mentioned this as part of the solution.
Bubbles suck money out of the middle class and direct them to the Wall Street elite.
I actually heard Maria Bartiromo say that the boom/bust cycle was not a bad thing. As long as you have inside information, you could stand to profit from them.
The rest of the flock just gets fleeced.
“At some point many in the Ann Coulter camp are going to have an Oh sht moment and realize that their fortunes were tied to a strong middle class as well.”
No they won’t. Ever.
Ever.
I have a neighbor that eats up all that FOX News PR campaign of what can you do for the rich BS .
They think that all charity/welfare can be done by volunteers .
We wouldn’t of developed some of the government programs to begin with had it been solved by volunteers .
Right ,put as much as you can in the hands of rich Corporations and the elite 5 % and somehow out of the goodness of their heart they will supply all the Social welfare needs with all the doe they amass and they will do it on a volunteer basis .
While the Republicrats will ensure that their bankster patrons escape any consequences or accountability for their massive fraud and criminality, foreign investors and law enforcement may not be so forgiving.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financial-crime/8738651/SFO-joins-US-inquiry-into-bank-practices.html
The Daily Telegraph understands the crime-fighting agency is actively investigating billions of pounds of complex mortgage-backed securities, including Goldman Sachs’s notorious “Timberwolf” transaction.
The $1bn package of mortgages sold by Goldman in 2007 has already led to a number of lawsuits and investigations in the US.
The action by the SFO comes as details of potential lawsuits against major banks on both sides of the Atlantic emerged.
In the US, Bank of America, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank are all being targeted by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) over the sale of mortgage-backed securities.
In the UK, Barclays, HSBC and Royal Bank of Scotland are expected to be named in US legal papers.
Sammy,
I’d be absolutely shocked to see anything beyond a token fine levied against our masters of humanity.
While I would be delighted and encouraged to see the rule of law assert itself over High Finance and its corruption of the political process, I’m expecting more of the same: sham investigations followed by slap-on-the-wrist penalties that forever absolve the guilty parties from criminal penalties or accountability.
Kinda funny how they are targeting these crimes now when it’s likely that they are beyond the Statue of Limitations on some of these crimes at this point .
Token fines are the name of the game .
Now they are starting to do what they should of done from day one and that was to determine who are the liable parties with this faulty lending crime spree and all the mis-ratings on securities .
I heard the other day that the Banks want to put up 20 billion to settle with all the States for the trillions of potential loss from their
misdeeds . This would be a fraction of the potential loss .
Looking at how absurd the debt mania was and how false the
price was for real estate that was backing it ,combined with all the absurd leverage and other Wall Street Casino games ,it’s a historic
situation in that the loss is so big .
State and local AGs might be more attuned to public sentiment against TBTB banks than the bought-and-paid-for political class in DC.
“the Statue of Limitations”
I know you just missed the T, but the mind reels at the possibilities.
It seems the government has decided to go after the ABC’s of U.S. mortgage banking firms. This is a most interesting new development in the aftermath of the Housing Bubble collapse.
Government goes after financial firms over mortgage losses
By Tami Luhby @CNNMoney September 2, 2011: 8:21 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — The federal agency overseeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac filed lawsuits Friday against 17 financial institutions in an attempt to recover billions of dollars in losses from risky mortgage investments.
The lawsuits were filed against many of the nation’s largest Wall Street and financial firms, including Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase. (See full list at end of story.)
…
In the most recent action, the complaints were filed against the following institutions:
Ally Financial;
Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500);
Barclays Bank (BCS);
Citigroup (C, Fortune 500);
Countrywide Financial;
Credit Suisse Holdings (CS);
Deutsche Bank (DB);
First Horizon National (FHN);
General Electric (GE, Fortune 500);
Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500);
HSBC North America;
JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500);
Merrill Lynch/First Franklin Financial;
Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500);
Nomura Holding America;
Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS);
Societe Generale.
First Published: September 2, 2011: 5:20 PM ET
Took them long enough…
Wasn’t the GSE mission supposedly to provide for affordable housing?
Regulator Suing Lenders Caught Between Competing U.S. Missions
By Lorraine Woellert and Clea Benson -
Sep 2, 2011 9:00 PM PT
Edward J. DeMarco, head of the U.S. watchdog overseeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, says his job is protecting taxpayers. His critics think he’s undermining the government’s efforts to shore up the economy.
DeMarco’s Federal Housing Finance Agency today filed lawsuits seeking to recover billions of dollars from Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and 14 other lenders that sold bonds backed by flawed residential mortgages.
Financial stocks already shaken by a weak jobs report fell sharply on advance reports of the court action, as investors weighed the potential costs to the banks. That renewed the debate over the role of a regulator that has sometimes clashed with other housing agencies and with Treasury Department officials over what steps Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should take to improve the housing market.
“You see the consumer groups coming out saying, ‘Yay, yay, yay, let’s screw the banks,’” said Paul Miller, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets in Arlington, Virginia, in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “But when you do this, you’re extracting capital and liquidity from the housing market, which is a major negative.”
DeMarco, 51, has frequently reminded lawmakers that every move the agency makes is driven by its mission to “preserve and conserve” the assets of the two government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, which have drawn more than $171 billion in taxpayer aid since being seized by regulators in September 2008.
…
“But when you do this, you’re extracting capital and liquidity from the housing market, which is a major negative.”
The banks should have thought if this BEFORE they did the VERY SAME THING.
Turn’about is fair play.
“When I bought mortgage securities…I always knew they were subject to refinancing,”…
My BS-ometer is flashing red. If the contractual agreements on the mortgages underlying MBS allowed refinancing of underwater loans, why haven’t the home owners already refinanced by now, given the Fed’s endlessly-extended super-low interest rate environment?
Disclaimer: Though I am interested in this debate, I don’t have a dog in the fight, as so far as I am aware, I own no MBS nor houses.
ECONOMY
SEPTEMBER 2, 2011
Housing Initiatives Promoted
By NICK TIMIRAOS And ALAN ZIBEL
A top official at the Federal Reserve called for more aggressive action to help the housing market by allowing more homeowners to refinance and by converting some foreclosures into rental housing.
Home sales have been disappointing this year, with tight credit and weak demand making it harder for markets to absorb a steady stream of foreclosed properties.
“Clearly the market is not functioning as it should,” said Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke in a speech Thursday in Washington.
Though mortgage rates are hovering near the lowest levels in decades and the Fed pledged last month to keep interest rates close to zero for another two years, many Americans haven’t been able to refinance their home loans because they don’t have enough equity or they can’t qualify under rigid standards.
Ms. Duke said that policy makers should consider enhancing an existing White House program designed to facilitate more refinancing of loans guaranteed by government-supported mortgage firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Allowing more homeowners to take advantage of low interest rates to reduce their monthly payments could both lower the risk of future defaults and boost the weak U.S. economic recovery.
The White House is working on similar proposals, but they need either the cooperation of Congress or the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates Fannie and Freddie and has been more skeptical of loan-assistance programs that have big upfront costs for the two.
Some bondholders have been critical of the idea of spurring a new round of refinancing, arguing it would be unfair to them because they stand to lose billions if performing loans are refinanced at lower rates. Critics also say that such intervention could also create uncertainty that would raise rates for future homeowners.
Ms. Duke dismissed those concerns by pointing to her previous banking career experience. “When I bought mortgage securities…I always knew they were subject to refinancing,” she said.
…
“When I bought mortgage securities…I always knew they were subject to refinancing,” she said.
Sure, they are subject to refinancing due to market forces—but this is different. In this case, they are considering refinancing them not due to market forces, but due to government fiat.
Exactly my point; she appears to advocate federal abrogation of the private contracts which provided the basis for MBS owners’ purchase decisions.
I find it odd that an FOMC member would fail to see the problem with this approach: You can’t short-change private sources of loanable funds without jeopardizing the future viability of those sources. Does Ms. Duke propose to have the government serve as the sole source of future housing finance?
I find it odd that there is a 100% assumption that capital will not be lost, and therefore complaining about a lower rate of return than expected. It annoys me that nobody is scared about perhaps not getting their principal back due to those people defaulting.
As far as I know from my several mortgages I have had, the only rules are if you have a pre-pay penalty or not.
If you can refi, you can refi. Whether that refi is because you have positive equity, or the government agency already on the hook for the loss is willing to let you refi.
Again, the is a product of disconnecting risk from reward. The people collecting the interest aren’t on the hook for the loss. If they were in the hook, they would get to decide if there is a refi. Since they are not on the hook for the loss, the entity that is on the hook for the loss gets to decide.
You can’t buy a security that would not exist without government meddeling, then complain about governmetn meddeling. This is like buying a house next to the world’s busiest airport, then complaining about all the noise from the airplanes.
“This is like buying a house next to the world’s busiest airport, then complaining about all the noise from the airplanes.”
AKA ‘coming to the nuisance’…
‘coming to the nuisance’
There is a LOT of that in my city and they get away with it. I’ve seen many businesses shut down because a residential developer built on the lots right next to them and the new homeowners complained and then sued. Successfully.
Yet another vector in job losses.
The answers are the first line except for one (js) and that is the last line.
Questions and answers about the August jobs report
By Christopher S. Rugaber
AP Economics Writer / September 3, 2011
Q. What happened to employment in August?
A. It was a dismal month.
Q. Are we in a recession?
A. It feels that way to many people.
Q. So if this isn’t a recession, then what is it?
A. Some call it a “growth recession”:
Q. When was the last time the economy was this bad two years after a major recession ended?
A. Not since the Great Depression.
Q. What will it take for the economy to regain its health?
A. (js Blah Blah Blah) But the economy desperately needs more jobs.
Q. What can President Barack Obama or the Federal Reserve do to boost growth?
A. Not much,
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2011/09/03/questions_and_answers_about_the_august_jobs_report/
Q.” What can President Barack Obama or the Federal Reserve do to boost growth”?
A. “Not much”
~ That’s been my question for a long time, what is it that people expect Obama to do, to create jobs? I have never counted on any administration to do anything to “create” a job for me.
No telling what kind of clap-trap do nothing program they will come up with next. You can be sure it will cost a bundle and be very ineffective.
As you pointed out it may have come at a unbearable cost. I think the massive increase in Homeland Defense, DOD contractors, private prisons ect. worked well for the Bush and Reagan regimes as it employes millions of Americans and it serves the dual purpose of tamping down civil unrest. In a distant past there used to be massive labor strikes, even armed rebellion in the coal fields of the Appalachia mountains. Right now I’m watching a C-SPAN Palin/Tea Party rally. A lot of really angry people there that roar with applause and every mention of guns and ‘take back America’. Funny thing is the people they want to take it back from don’t have it. Those people, “The Poors” as Jon Stewart calls them own less than 2 1/2% of the total wealth in this country.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-august-18-2011/world-of-class-warfare—the-poor-s-free-ride-is-over
End free trade, tariffs on money leaving the country, roll back tax changes to a 1950s style tax code (4% payroll and steep income with 90% top marginal rate), nationalized healthcare with cost/benefit justification needed for all procedures to bring our costs down 50%, bring home our troops and massive cuts to military spending of about 50%, use money saved on DoD and Medicare/caid to double SS benefits, double minimum wage…
In short, instead of making the rich richer and the poor poorer expecting that to create demand, flip it around and start making the rich poorer and the poor richer.
“End free trade, tariffs on money leaving the country, roll back tax changes to a 1950s style tax code (4% payroll and steep income with 90% top marginal rate)”
That might be an “only Nixon could go to China” scenario. Meaning it might take a Republican pres. and congress to to what you suggest. (2013 NYTimes headline–”President Perry: ‘We just lost the South”)
A. (js Blah Blah Blah) But the economy desperately needs more jobs.
Q. What can President Barack Obama or the Federal Reserve do to boost growth?
A. Not much,
…and here’s why…
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68R40I20100928
Republicans block ending offshore jobs tax breaks | Reuters
I’ve been catching up on my retail reading this morning:
Coldwater Creek (Women’s Apparel) had a 2nd qtr loss. IIRC, it wasn’t their first. Closing under preforming stores. I predict they are not long for this world or a much smaller chain with strategic store placement.
Chico’s and White House Black Market (same firm, IIRC) are next on the chopping block, imo.
All 3 retailers are way overpriced, imo.
Dollar Store segment is growing and doing well.
Oh, and Caruso cut a deal with Caesar’s on the strip for “Project Ling”. 3,000 construction jobs, and 1,500 perm jobs, albeit low paying. Do they need another mega attraction? (hint: tourists needed) LV is not my flavor.
Having lost sight of our objectives we need to redouble our efforts.
- Anon
When in trouble
When in doubt
Run in circles
Scream and shout.
BEWARE THIS HEADLINE.
“Feds May Confiscate Privately Held Gold and Silver Coins”
With the best of intentions, I have no doubt, Mr. Kurt Nimmo posted a piece Wednesday concerning the case that was lodged against Bernard von NotHaus charging him with manufacturing counterfeit money. The U.S. Attorney won the case some weeks ago and now stands ready to confiscate Mr. von NotHaus’s considerable stash of silver Liberty “Dollars”.
Nimmo concludes that if the federal government is going to take Mr. NotHaus’s silver coins it’s not unlikely the government will act at some point to take YOUR gold and silver coins.
A ruthless totalitarian government could, of course, barge into your house and take ALL your possessions - but on a scale of 1 to 10 the probability of that happening anytime soon in the U.S. is about 0.5 or less.
Here’s why your gold/silver coins will not be snatched by the government. 1/ Krugerrands, Eagles, etc., are NOT counterfeit. They are legal tender. Picture the U.S. Mint selling you silver and gold Eagles one day and coming into your house to take them back the next.
2/ References to the “confiscation” of gold in 1934 are misleading. The government did call in the gold but paid $20.67 for every ounce. It is entirely unlikely the Treasury Department would pay today’s price…more than $1,880.00… for every ounce of gold held by the people.
3/ The government has no more legal right to your lawfully acquired gold and silver coins that it does your wrist watch.
Conclusion: There is plenty of mischief being inflicted upon us by various levels of government, but confiscating Krugerrands and Eagles is not one.
“It is entirely unlikely the Treasury Department would pay today’s price…more than $1,880.00… for every ounce of gold held by the people.”
I’m not sure how likely it is, but isn’t it technically feasible to do this, using the printing press technology to fund the purchase?
There is some 5 billion ounces of gold above the ground. At $2000 per, that would be $10T. World governments aready own about $2T of that. Another $5T exists as jewelery, non-investment collectables. Only $2T is held as coins, bars, investment. The remainaing $1T is held as industrial stock, largely as unrepossessed scrap waitnig to be melted down and remaid into new jewelry.
So, unless they are coming after wedding rings, necklaces, pendants, etc… the amount of gold they’d need to take would be less than the US Fed Reserve’s current balance sheet.
Realtors Are Liars®
Black unemployment: Highest in 27 years
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — The August jobs report was dismal for plenty of reasons, but perhaps most striking was the picture it painted of racial inequality in the job market.
Black unemployment surged to 16.7% in August, its highest level since 1984, while the unemployment rate for whites fell slightly to 8%, the Labor Department reported.
“This month’s numbers continue to bear out that longstanding pattern that minorities have a much more challenging time getting jobs,” said Bill Rodgers, chief economist with the Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University.
Black unemployment has been roughly double that of whites since the government started tracking the figures in 1972.
Economists blame a variety of factors. The black workforce is younger than the white workforce, lower numbers of blacks get a college degree and many live in areas of the country that were harder hit by the recession — all things that could lead to a higher unemployment rate.
But even excluding those factors, blacks still are hit with higher joblessness.
“Even when you compare black and white workers, same age range, same education, you still see pretty significant gaps in unemployment rates,” said Algernon Austin, director of the Race, Ethnicity, and the Economy program at the Economic Policy Institute. “So I do think the fact of racial discrimination in the labor market continues to play a role.”
About 155,000 blacks got jobs in August, but the group’s unemployment rate still went up because those jobs weren’t enough to make up for all the people who started looking for work during the month.
However, the gain for whites of 211,000 jobs was enough to bring their unemployment rate down.
It’s higher than that. Even by just including the 2000 labor participation rate, it’s double the government numbers.
Blacks voted overwhelmingly (90+ percent) for Obama last time around, and they’ll do the same in 2012.
Because they know they would do even worse under any GOP leadership.
Seriously their other choice was Keating Five McCaine and Alaska Barbie.
I think they are smart enough to realize that trickle down economics is the equivalent of the emperors new clothes. The same can’t be said for many voting the other ticket who openly vote against their own economic interests.
“Because they know they would do even worse under any GOP leadership.”
Things are more like they are now than they ever were before.
- Dwight D Eisenhower
A vote for Obama is a vote for unlimited food stamps. Why ruin a good thing if you are lazy and stupid.
What do you mean by that? Are food stamps currently unlimited in your view?
“Are food stamps currently unlimited in your view?”
Unlimited no, record number of recipients yes.
From what others have posted fraud in the SNAP program doesn`t happen in other places. In Palm Beach County however, there is a ton of it. I would not ever want a family that needed assistance not to get it but like any other gov. program it looks to me like fraud and waste are out of control. In a lot of cases I think the social safety net has turned into a hammock.
By Huma Khan
May 31, 2011 11:48am
Congress Mulls Cuts to Food Stamps Program Amid Record Number of Recipients
ABC News’ Huma Khan reports: Congress is under pressure to cut the rapidly rising costs of the federal government’s food stamps program at a time when a record number of Americans are relying on it.
The House Appropriations Committee today will review the fiscal year 2012 appropriations bill for the Department of Agriculture that includes $71 billion for the agency’s “Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.” That’s $2 billion less than what President Obama requested but a 9 percent increase from 2011, which, critics say, is too large given the sizeable budget deficit.
A record number of Americans – about 14 percent – now rely on the federal government’s food stamps program and its rapid expansion in recent years has become a politically explosive topic.
More than 44.5 million Americans received SNAP benefits in March, an 11 percent increase from one year ago and nearly 61 percent higher than the same time four years ago.
Nearly 21 million households are reliant on food stamps.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/05/congress-mulls-cuts-to-food-stamps-program-amid-record-number-of-recipients/ - -
Last time I looked the USDA had requirements to qualify.
But hey, let’s blame the unemployed for the fact that there are no jobs for them. It’s the American way!
Long live the super rich!
Just being caustic in a frustraed way. I know several who are currently abusing the SNAP progam and I think its bullshit.
To the people defending the viability of the “safety net” for the unemployed: Aren’t the unemployed getting UE benefits for 99 weeks? Do they get food stamps too? Really? Who is paying for all the freebies?
Wouldn’t take food stamps if I was dying of starvation, but to each his own.
“Wouldn’t take food stamps if I was dying of starvation, but to each his own.”
A starving person would knock off their mother to relieve the gnawing pain of hunger. You couldn’t get further from the reality of starvation if you tried. Your contempt is stunning.
“Are food stamps currently unlimited in your view?”
Unlimited no, record number of recipients yes.
The increase was due to the lousy economy, the vast increase in unemployment, etc. The current administration hasn’t extended the program. The number of people who are eligible has increased.
….starving person wouldn’t knock of HIS own mother…
Your piss-poor grammar is stunning.
I thought his point was clear. Is the use of “their” really a grammatical error in that context? I use it that way all the time. I’m no grammar expert, though.
“But hey, let’s blame the unemployed for the fact that there are no jobs for them. It’s the American way!”
What Immigrants need to know about SNAP/FAP
Help Line. 1-800-481-4989 … Revised by: Michigan Immigrants Right Center. Food Assistance Program. SNAP. FAP … Do I have to be a legal resident to … holders for more than 5 years or hold another … benefits. DHS can only report to. Immigration if they have seen a paper … stating that the person is here illegally such …
http://www.foodstamphelp.org/FAP%20Facts.pdf - - Cached - Similar pages
Are illegal immigrants able to get food stamps?
Just wondering.
Technically no. But when my brother applied and they denied him because his income was too high with the TWO jobs he apparently had, we realized a problem. There was an illegal who was using my brother’s social to get over $600 a month in food stamps and health care for all of his illegal children. He reported to the state that he worked at a construction company. Well, when my brother applied, he reported to the state that he worked for big lots and the state assumed that meant he had two jobs, one at a construction company and one at big lots, so they denied him for being over income. Well, when we went into DES and the picture and finger prints they had on file was of a 5′2″ mexican man and not a 6′3″ white man, they quickly figured it out.
Had my brother not applied for government assistance, this illegal immigrant and all his children would still be paid for with my tax money
And you’ll be happy to know my brother found a new job and no longer needs government assistance.
My personal opinion is that yes illegal immigrants get and use food stamps. I base that on their being the parent(s) of a qualifying child(ren), that they would be the ones who not only receive these benefits but are the ones who would primarily be the ones most likely to be shopping and paying for the food items.
https://www.healthearizona.org/app/Login…
Below is found from the above’s “Click on the Learn More! Links on the left.”
“Who can apply?”
“All Arizona residents can apply.
If you are under age 18, you may apply for yourself and your children. However, if you are living with a parent(s), you must include your parent(s) as part of your household.
If you are an immigrant, you can apply for your U.S. citizen children. You can also apply for yourself, but you may only be eligible for limited benefits.
You can apply for a person or household as their representative.
You can have someone else apply for you as your representative.”
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20110223194724AAX7Kvi - 63k -
“I thought his point was clear.”
Oh it was crystal clear to him.
I’m confused on one thing…if they noticed that he had “two jobs” when your brother applied, why didn’t they notice he had “two jobs” when the illegal alien applied using the same SSN?
Liz, I can’t tell if you’re serious or being facetious.
Base search on Realtor.com starting with 33458 shows 361 single family 3/2 Listings Found. Up until the last couple of months there have been at least 430 listings and usually more. For 33458 RealtyTrac shows 392 pre-foreclosure 55 auction and 201 bank owned which I know is low because my last rental never showed on RT and they didn`t pay the mortgage for at least 2 1/2 years. This massive winner picking life altering BS game that is being played is not making me feel too good about the $1,700 check I am writing for rent that brings my total rent payments since Oct. 2005 to about $120,000.00 to LLs who have for the most part not paid their mortgage and been bailed out by MY government.
There was an unexpected development in the nice, early 20th century neighborhood in Central Texas that is one of the two I watch. It has an unusual mix of 1920s cottages and mansions in a variety of styles. The people with 4000 sq. ft. exquisitely remodeled homes are still trying to get $100 per square foot. Meanwhile, there’s a 1950s home in foreclosure (2700 sq. ft, $150k right now) that has killed the market for similar homes. There are now a number of them for between $150k and $170k, but I still haven’t seen one I like in a location I like. That’s the background.
The news is that while a bunch of listings have gone off the market for the fall, a new one has just appeared. It’s early 1950s 3/2 for $135k, Zillow says it’s over 2400 sq. ft. and there are beautiful live oak trees on a large lot. It’s on a less busy street, more interior location than the houses going for $150k-170k. That’s the good news. The bad news is that it backs to a large apartment complex, they included no interior photos, and based on the euphemistic language in the ad (something about adding your personal touches), I take it that it has been virtually untouched since the Eisenhower administration. The people who want $100 per square foot (for their admittedly lovely homes) have got to be dying inside right now, because it’s getting to the point in that neighborhood that you could buy three so-so houses there (live in one, rent out the two others) for the same price as one 4000 sq. footer.
It will be interesting to see when the $100 a square foot people start cracking. Maybe this spring? We have to move out of our rental in spring 2012, so it’s a matter of some interest to me.
I *WISH* I was in a $100sq.ft. zone! Still around $130
Detroit beckons:
Detroit Summary
The median sales price for homes in Detroit MI for May 11 to Jul 11 was $65,000. This represents a decline of 6.9%, or $4,784, compared to the prior quarter and a decrease of 8.9% compared to the prior year. Sales prices have depreciated 15% over the last 5 years in Detroit. The average listing price for Detroit homes for sale on Trulia was $39,824 for the week ending Aug 24, which represents a decline of 19.1%, or $9,381, compared to the prior week and a decline of 12.5%, or $5,715, compared to the week ending Aug 03. Average price per square foot for Detroit MI was $69, a decrease of 4.2% compared to the same period last year. Popular neighborhoods in Detroit include Indian Village, North Rosedale Park, Morningside, Palmer Woods, Bagley, and Rosedale Park.
House across from me sold under $50 per sqft. House next door is still on the market at $61 sqft.
PHX is doubtless far nicer than Detroit, too…
If you don’t mind 15 days in a row above 110.
Yeah, if I could get $100/ft^2 I might buy.
We cruised by this afternoon and there was an estate sale going on at the 3/2 house for $135k. We dropped in and as expected, it was “original” and cave-like on the inside, with low ceilings and a choppy floorplan. Based on the estate sale items, I don’t think the residents had purchased anything except food after 1971. I’m a bit surprised the heirs didn’t try for $150k, but it’s probably worth it to them to move the house quickly, especially with it being early September right now. All in all, I think they’re wise not to be greedy.
I forget if I told this story, but a couple blocks away, there used to be two big remodeled 4000 sq. footers for sale. One was owned by well-respected, high-quality contractors who specialize in these older homes. Right next door were his clients, in a similar house. At one point, the contractors had their house for sale for $430k while the clients had theirs priced at $440k. The contractors’ house is off the market now (sold?), while the clients’ house is priced at $430k. And still it sits.
So, at the moment, there’s a gaping chasm between the prices on the 1950s houses and the renovated mansions.
Under pure capitalism prices would be base on supply and demand and demand would be based on wages . From about 1995 onward wages started
falling more and more verses inflation . From about 2000 onward we got major price increases in a number of industries but debt was used to pay for it from the wealth effect of fake real estate prices .
So ,I’m saying that industry got the benefit of the price inflation that was based on debt and faulty lending and the wealth effect from inflated
real estate ,rather than wages rising .
So, how are people to pay for all this debt obligation they obtained or maintain any standard of living if the prices stay high in all areas ?
Industry feels they are entitled to their profit margins yet there shouldn’t be any assurance of a static profit margin or profit margins that reflect good times rather than a recession .
It seems like everything is done to reflect a good stock market price for all these Companies . Wall Street should be a reflection of the economy ,not the reason for pricing or wage decrease or outsourcing or
out-manufacturing .
The current situation is a low wage monopoly that was brought on by
Globalism .
I’m just a firm believer in closed economic systems .otherwise you get the situation like we have now in which Companies are forced into taking their jobs and manufacturing to other Countries .
Small business can’t compete with the Big Multi-National price fixing monopolies either anymore .
The average worker in American can’t afford 1500 a month health insurance and 30 k small cars and 3 thousand a month for a standard house and all the other costs that keep rising ,along with wage decrease .
Industry doesn’t want to decrease the prices ,they just want to decrease wages and benefits and do all the outsourcing and out-manufacturing
they can .
My cable company has increased the price 100percent in the past 5 years in spite of the USA being in a recession and people being able to afford less .
Costs are decoupled from wages and that gained a lot of steam with
the fake housing boom and the faulty live by debt BS . Keeping up with inflation was bad enough already before the debt bomb /housing mania
came upon us .
I don’t see how it’s going to work given the situation and all the decoupling from wages that is going on .
My cable company has increased the price 100percent in the past 5 years in spite of the USA being in a recession and people being able to afford less.
This industry is becoming the target of something called “cord cutting.” Meaning that people are giving up the cable TV and finding their favorite programming other ways.
ISTR reading an NYT article by a guy who created a cable-free TV setup using various computer hardware components. It cost him about $500, and that was a onetime cost. No more monthly cable bills.
Unless he’s using p2p to download all shows he’s probably using services like Netflix and Hulu which charge monthly fees. There’s also the issue of cable Internet access being bandwith limited for most people. If he starts watching too much video online he’ll be throttled and charged more for data. The cable companies have much of the US by the gonads.
Dump the cable. How hard can it be?
You can always rent it on DVD a season later. Plus, no commercials.
“From about 1995 onward wages started falling more and more verses inflation”
No.
From about 1982 onward. The 1980s was when offshoring jobs really took off.
“The 1980s was when offshoring jobs really took off.”
Correct and in a very big way. 1981-1982 is when we first saw it in New England and the race to the bottom was on. I recall in 1984 the paper mill my entire family worked(and jerked cows on the side) at advertised for 30 jobs. 1200 people showed up. This is in backwoods VT, obviously unprecedented at the time. And it’s been all uphill since. Spare no quarter, no holds barred corporatism. You can deny it, you can apologise for it, you can run from it but we’ve had 30 years of class warfare and the corporate elite have won. It ought to be self-evident by now but there are the paid hacks who continue to pander for the corporate elite and plenty of dumb folk who fall for it.
We’ve been robbed of economic opportunity and it’s time we demand its’ return.
So Ariz, Slim ,if you have 1/2 the customers you had you simply charge the remaining customers 100% more .
Is this going to be the wave of the future in pricing ? It’s actually price fixing . What ever happened to just making a small profit on a volume business .
There was only a 10 dollar difference between the different cable companies for the same service I want on the choices I had . My neighbor got a 20% discount from what I had to pay because she is a new customer ,but they are going to raise the price to my price in a year .
Also, if the idea is to watch TV over the internet, a problem suggests itself. Most people get access to the internet from a cable company.
But you don’t have to get cable with it. Just like you don’t have to get a land line just because you have DSL.
I’m thinking that pretty soon cell phone data plans will be good enough for most people, so they’ll just get a tethering plan and get rid of dedicated internet service. Except that they keep wanting to download movies in HD and that could take a little longer to get for free from a cell phone provider. I notice now that speeds are getting faster they are getting rid of “unlimited data” plans…
“Is this going to be the wave of the future in pricing ?”
It’s been the very heart of voodoo, er “supply side” economics and has been in effect for the last 30 years.
It’s also the very heart of stagflation.
“What ever happened to just making a small profit on a volume business .”
Hah, you’d never make it past HR at Goldman Sachs.
Buyers and sellers are having a hard time seeing eye-to-eye on San Diego home values:
San Diego Real Estate Overview
Market View for San Diego
Avg. Listing Price $551,978
Wk ending Aug 24 +$567 +0.1% w-o-w
Median Sales Price $313,423
May ‘11 - Jul ‘11 -$11,577 -3.6% y-o-y
6,167 Homes For Sale
76 Open Homes
11,048 Recently Sold
5,174 Foreclosures
Real estate prices should not of risen from 2000 to 2007 because wages didn’t rise during that time period . You might give some leeway because interest rates were lower , but that would not account for the rise that
took place .
Nobody was talking about how what happened was even possible . Being
retired I assumed that wages went up during that time period .
That being said . the Power Brokers want to pick and choose who the winners and losers are .
What happened is that houses went from 3x income to 5x.
“Power Brokers want to pick and choose who the winners and losers are”
Since the dawn of time. Nothing new here…. except…
The Internet. The Internet is the game changer. This blog is a perfect example. It takes the power (limited access to important information) out the hands of the few and gives it to the many.
OMFG. My wife ran the dryer with a bunch of crayons in it.
Well, don’t just sit there. Tell us!
Is it now a colorful dryer?
Purple purple purple (my littlegal is def the culprit, since she’s hooked on Barney these days).
Sounds like your wife needs a timeout.
I thought the dryer was the one that needed the timeout.
I’m so sorry. But let’s spread the blame–there was a small child involved, wasn’t there?
Yeah, there was a small child involved - the wife.
It’s bad juju to come down too hard on a spouse when something bad happens and it’s their fault. This past year, I did something dumb with our car in a parking lot and got several talkings to from my husband (it left only a small scrape, but it was VERY dumb). Fast forward a month or two and he drives into a pole at our local Dairy Queen (also while parking), leaving a big crunched area near a headlight.
Muggy, just bank it for the next time you do something dumb.
“Muggy, just bank it for the next time you do something dumb.”
It’s not as serious as you’re taking it. My wife did cry, but it’s really no big deal.
It’s more that, well, some accidents and mistakes are easy to foresee and predict. I had never thought, “huh, what happens when your kid leaves a crayon in her pocket, and it makes it all the way to the dryer.” Now I know.
FWIW, last year my waterproof phone made it all the way through the washer, no problems.
Excellent advice which all happy husbands should learn to follow.
But some times the opportunity to break this unwritten rule is just too enticing! Like the other night, when upon returning home from an evening constitutional, I found my teenage son lying on the floor near my wife, whose angry expression suggested a major cold war was underway. I dared to suggest that she might have more luck helping my son write his English paper if she looked at him and engaged him in conversation, rather than seething in silent rage and ignoring him while working through her e-mail.
Let’s just say I am unlikely to get lucky this weekend, thanks to my big mouth…but I am still debating whether it was worth it.
“…some accidents and mistakes are easy to foresee and predict…”
Such as when your teenage daughter wrecks your wife’s car while trying to park it as your wife tries to offer helpful parking advice from the passenger’s seat?
Let he who does laundry cast the first crayon.
LOL! Dude, we both do everything (laundry, cooking, cleaning, etc.). The only thing that gets done on a gender basis is car stuff. Dudes only.
It’s better in my household. My wife hates doing dishes, so I do them. She shoulders most everything else around the house except for hard math and science homework questions. And since we rent, don’t own, NO YARD WORK!!!
Let she who does laundry melt every last crayon.
It is so easy to criticize a spouse who makes a small mistake, medium mistake, or large mistake.
But it does not solve the problems. Best to give the wife a hug, tell her is not a big problem, and working together you could get it fixed without the world coming to an end.
My wife let the water overflow from the bathroom above my radio room, and I just went upstairs , turned off the water , and she helped me clean up the water. So the downstair dropped ceiling has water stains and there might be something wrong that will come up later.
Heck, I should shout at the wife for a mistake?
“The average worker in American can’t afford 1500 a month health insurance and 30 k small cars and 3 thousand a month for a standard house and all the other costs that keep rising ,along with wage decrease .
Industry doesn’t want to decrease the prices ,they just want to decrease wages and benefits and do all the outsourcing and out-manufacturing they can . ”
One of the problems with this statement is that the industry must lower their production costs to offer a lower sale price. And that is difficult to do in many industrys as labor costs are such a large part of production costs.
If you are paying workers $30-50 an hour for line production work, your sale prices reflect that cost. You can not expect an company to lose money by retaining high labor cost line workers.
It really is, in my opinion, the importation of goods from low labor companies forcing the local companies to the wall on profit losses.
I remember the first time I saw a Volkswagen in 1954 and how impressed I was with the quality of the import car, and looking at equivilent American Cars the difference was significant.
I , for one, blame California’s Prop 13 for the property costs increasing.
My thoughts are as followed.
Prop 13 limited the taxs to 1.25( approximately) of the valuation of the property.
this lower the taxes of a $30,000 home to $375 per year or $30 a month from the previous $750 a year or $60 a month.
This made more buyers able to qualify for the $30,000 home, increasing the demand. Realtor immedialely saw that would allow them to sell the home for more than $30,000.
Atypical buyer for a $30,000 home would, before Prop 13 have an income of $10,000 and be able to pay $3.300 a year for pit+maintence.
Dropping the taxes the buyer would be able to pay about $31,500 for the same home. More, or less, folks
Now the brokers drove the home prices up as demand increased, and what followed was escalation as sellers sold their old houses bought new one, bigger better, nicer.
But. of course, this could be totally wrong.