Bits Bucket for September 9, 2011
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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You can certainly tell by the Bernake’s comments that he has his finger on the pulse of mainstream America! So when does operation “twist” AKA operation “distort”/”connive” take place?
- Bernanke offers no hints of further aid to economy
Bernanke surprised by weak consumer spending but offers no hints of further aid for economy
WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday that he’s surprised by how cautious consumers remain more than two years since the recession officially ended. But he offered no hints of further steps the Fed might take to try to boost the weak economy.
Bernanke noted that several factors have kept consumers from spending more: from high unemployment and falling home values to still-heavy debt loads and higher gasoline prices.
“Even taking into account the many financial pressures they face, households seem exceptionally cautious,” Bernanke said in a speech in Minneapolis to the Economic Club of Minnesota.
Bernanke said that higher prices for gas, cars and other consumer goods were due, in part, to temporary factors, such as supply disruptions stemming from Japan’s earthquake and nuclear crisis. As those factors continue to ease, the Fed chief said he expects inflation to moderate in the coming months.
He reiterated that the Fed will consider a range of options at its next policy meeting Sept. 20-21. Some economists have said the Fed must take further steps to drive down long-term interest rates and help the economy avoid another recession.
So a technocrat is baffled by man’s often inconvenient propesity to act irrationally? Stymied by people who don’t behave according to textbook models? Confounded by an economy that doesn’t respond as predicted by some thesis or dissertation?
Perhaps their elected henchmen can someday legislate us into the kind of behavior that will support their theories and models?
If you print money, you adjust international exchage rates. Then foreigners buy more of your exports and your people buy less imports.
Oh, except… a lot of your imports are oil that you can’t just stop buying and all that money you printed pushed up the price so you are actually importing more and not less….
Oh, except… the trading partners that you could stop importing from also print money to not allow your currency to devaluate. This doesn’t help your exports.
One of the symptoms of 40+ years of unrestrained trade imbalances is massive debt. Printing money and handing it to the speculators at the top, pushes up prices of food and energy but does not translate into more jobs or higher wages. Higher prices but stagnant wages and job market make it harder to meet debt obligations pushing even more people into foreclsoures and bankruptcy.
As Bernanke has said repeatedly… It’s on congress. Monetary policy is totally incapable of fixing the trade imbalances that plague our economy.
“As Bernanke has said repeatedly… It’s on congress.”
Okay, game over!
Economists have a bad case of physics envy. Seems that they always will.
Speaking as someone who majored in the Dismal Science, I experienced this firsthand. There were those snide “Where’s the economics lab?” questions from University of Michigan classmates who were majoring in physics, chemistry, or engineering. (Answer: The Econ building didn’t have a lab.)
Then there was the lack of data to back up what the economics profs were so strongly asserting in the classroom. It wasn’t like they were going out and doing double-blind studies of the efficacy of what they were saying the way faculty were over in the medical school.
Sweet electricity!
Yay!
Let this be a warning to all our fellow HBBers…BE PREPARED. I know we’ve all been saying this over the years, but this power outage really brought it home.
Years ago, my dad always told me to never let the gas tank get below 1/2 tank. That was valuable advice, and really helped with today’s deal since gas stations weren’t open, and I had to drive through VERY congested traffic since the traffic lights were out all across the county and beyond.
Water, dry food, batteries (lots of them), candles (lots of these, too), fully-charged cell phones, battery-operated radio, medical supplies (the hospitals and emergency services were BUSY), cash, etc. We all know the drill, but most of us probably get a bit lackadaisical about it when we run out of emergency supplies or when they become outdated.
This was a pretty scary deal, and I still wonder if it wasn’t terrorism. The “official” story says not, but I usually don’t trust the “official” story most of the time — look at what we’ve been told WRT the housing market and the economy, in general. Supposedly, some ham radio operators said two power plants exploded. Will have to check into it more.
“This was a pretty scary deal, and I still wonder if it wasn’t terrorism.”
Hmmmm…
Texas Gov. Rick Perry Makes Campaign Visit To La Jolla
By City News Service
September 8, 2011
Texas Gov. and Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry is scheduled to begin a two-day fundraising swing through California today with a breakfast event in La Jolla.
…
The part that frightened me was the instantaneous change in people’s behavior which occurred the moment everyone realized we were going to spend the evening without power. Neighbors whose behinds would normally have been parked on the couch in front of the telly were suddenly seen out and about in front of their houses. People were taking their evening constitutionals by moonlight or flashlight, as there were no streetlights. A young man I never saw before in my life wandered up to hit on my daughter and her best friend as they sat on the sidewalk in front of our home, and tried to encourage them to wander off up the street with them. My daughter became extremely annoyed by my butting in to the conversation with one of those friendly, dopey-looking dad smiles on my face.
Luckily we live in a very friendly neighborhood where you can generally trust your neighbors; by contrast, I dread to think what it would have been like to go to bed in a high-crime area under the realization that things are different without electricity.
When I lived in Hawaii, a free fell on a main power line and shut down the entire island of Oahu.
When you are a computer programmer, there isn’t much work you can get done without electricity. We all went home. I got the family and went to the beach.
I’m also surprised to find how many people don’t have a car charger for their cell phone. You may not want to waste precious gas in a long term emergency event but that option may be woth the small cost.
I’m also surprised to find how many people don’t have a car charger for their cell phone
better yet get a DC->AC converter(inverter?) for the car. That way you can power most things.
Or get a generator…
or a solar charger…
San Diego, CA - Feds Rule Out Terrorism As Calif., Ariz., Mexico Hit By Major Power Outage
Published on: Yesterday 08:02 PM
Last updated on: Today 01:22 AM
A San Diego police official directs traffic after a power outage
Thursday, Sept. 8, 2011, in San Diego. A power outage is affecting millions of people across southern California, Arizona and Mexico. San Diego Gas & Electric Co. Darcel Hulce said that crews Thursday believe the outage was caused by a system breakdown and assured people it was not the result of a terror attack. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
…
I had more than a half tank, but more could have been better from a comfort standpoint. Cash could have been more, but was more than sufficient since there was little means of doing transactions and there wasn’t anything I needed other than possibly more gas.
A few weeks ago I was looking at hand crank generators, something that could keep a cell phone or other small appliance changed beyond using a car battery. I decided to hold off since one of those companies is coming out with a pedal powered version in October:
http://www.k-tor.com/pedal-powered-generator/
One thing that was more problematic was that cell service got progressively worse as cell towers lost whatever power they had. I never had a problem texting and could stream audio for awhile, but my plan to use my phone for a similar outage wouldn’t have worked very well for long. With a longer outage, there might have been very little usable service after several hours even if my phone was fully charged.
I ended up using the radio in the car, even though that’s a rather limited source for local information. The car was also nice to have for AC hence it would have been a greater comfort factor with more gas in the tank (not needing to be concerned about conserving the gas in the tank if the outage went on longer than expected).
Emergency preparedness gurus now advise against candles. The risk of fire is worse than having no lighting.
There are a lot of new cool emergency supplies out there. Most radios and some flashlights come with crank and solar power. You can buy pre-assembled 72-hour kits and dried food of all types by the barrell. It does get expensive. I keep about six weeks of ready-to-eat nonperishables and two 72 hour kits. (I’m working on a 72-hour office kit.) Every six months I spend $50-60 replenishing. My solar powered flashlight was $18 at Home Despot, but I’d far rather have that than depend on batteries.
I have a rechargable flashlight aboard. With the LED bulb it can be used for 24 hours between charges. I’ve used it as an anchor light in a pinch.
if i can avoid a housing bubble….i think i have enough sense to avoid death by candle.
CA renter
Glad you guys are alright. The traffic must have been a nightmare. KFI had callers in the areas affected.
It brings back those rolling black outs we had in Ca, over a decade ago. In the end it was extortion. The PUC gave in, and the rates went up. I agree, the “story” might not match the truth. Thanks for the reminder about being prepared. I need to get it together.
Yeah, still, one cannot help wondering if the perpetrators of 911 won. Here we are. The USA. Land of the free and home of the brave. So, we have a power failure. And all these people wander around wondering if it was “terror”.
Sigh.
When ever Im late for work I always assure my boss that it was NOT the result of an act of terror; that way he forgets that Im just an unreliable worker, and pretty stupid too.
Do you really have to wonder about that? Two ill-planned wars and partial occupations, trillions lost, tens of thousands wounded and 6 thousand dead. The FBI diverted from white collar crime to anti-terrorism.
And people are yes, still terrified of their own shadows. Some more than others.
I’d say Osama knew republicans better than republicans knew themselves. He won that round by outwitting the mouthbreathers. Let’s be smarter and more mature next time. Maybe distribute Sun Tzuh to GOP leaders?
–Do you really have to wonder about that? Two ill-planned wars and partial occupations, trillions lost,—
Amazingly enough… this is peripheral.
The psychology here is of more concern.
Never assume foul play when a racoon crapping on poorly maintained equipment is a possible cause.
“but I usually don’t trust the “official” story most of the time”
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/data-drive/article_dc4aabe6-db5b-11e0-97ba-001cc4c03286.html
“Murray Jennex, an associate professor at San Diego State who’s worked with utilities for 20 years, said computer sensors should have stopped the outage in Arizona from spreading to San Diego’s system.”
“Shames said if the Independent System Operator transferred the Arizona customers to San Diego without a plan approved by state oversight officials, it would have been illegal.” “Heads are going to roll at [the Independent System Operator] if that’s true,” Shames said. “What SDG&E is telling you doesn’t add up.”
Power went out on the way home from Costco with a load of frozen stuff. I am SO glad we did not lose any of it.
Glad to hear it, GH. How did you do it? A lot of our stuff will probably have to be thrown away.
But it will probably be considered a good thing for the economy when everyone goes out tomorrow to replace all their spoiled food and gas up their cars. I’m sure Home Depot will sell out of generators tomorrow, too, if they haven’t done so already.
We have a freezer in the Garage which is pretty full so all the stuff helps to keep everything else frozen. A big key to dealing with power outages and freezers and fridges is not to open them if at all possible.
A couple of years back we were not so lucky when something fell and pushed the door open slightly. After this I attached a hasp lock to the outside.
We have a downstairs freezer and a freezer in the garage. Sometimes the freezer in the garage gets close to empty before I fill it again. I got a great tip to take gallons of water and put them inside to keep the temps up in the empty space. It helps to keep elec cost down in a less than full space but it also helps to keep the longevity of the items if you’ve lose power. Those gallon blocks take a long time to thaw.
Carrie, those jugs of water do not really save you electricity. Freezing them just to fill the space wastes electricity.
Cue the eco cops to tell me I’m talking out my arse and am an enemy of all that is good.
Blue Skye, where are you getting this from? I’ve always heard that full freezers are more efficient. Yes, it takes electricity to freeze the gallons of water, but apparently it takes less energy to KEEP them cold compared to keeping empty space cold, enough to offset the initial freezing. And of course it’s valuable during a power outage.
The work(energy use) is in removing, rather absorbing the heat, thus increasing the temp differential between inside of box and room. Once the heat is removed, the demand is met. During outages, the heat is absorbed by the ice blocks instead of getting absorbed by evaporator coil and pumped to condenser coil via compressor. If you’re using a chest freezer, covering it with poly during an outage will limit the transfer of heat. Remember… warmer air migrates toward colder air always.
Yeah, I’ve heard that too, but I’m sure it’s a myth. One way to put it; the freezer doesn’t know what’s in it. Once cold, the energy requirement is based on the rate of heat loss through the insulation and the wall of the box. It is not based at all on the mass of stuff inside. If your freezer is usually half full, you are wasting energy by running too large a box.
On the jugs of water, they will keep your food cold for a while longer, but not frozen. I use a jug for thermal ballast in my boat refrigerator, letting it freeze when I am plugged into shore power. When it is melting, the “frozen” food has already thawed, so you need to use it up. No problem for me, we’re talking about a cubic foot’s worth of stuff.
Along similar lines, when I lived in Lousianna a lot of people told me that it was cheaper to run the A/C full blast 24/7 rather than turn it down during the times I was away or asleep.
“Once cold, the energy requirement is based on the rate of heat loss through the insulation and the wall of the box.”
BINGO.
But for the purposes of a keeping perishables cold during outages, BTU’s need to be absorbed some other way. Thus, the more frozen *mass* you have, the more BTU’s can be absorbed. It’s not a question of duration but one of temp differential.
One way to put it; the freezer doesn’t know what’s in it.
My understanding is it helps when the door is opened. Air will get replaced easily during this transaction, and the new air must be cooled to maintain temp. Smaller open space = less air to re-cool.
“One way to put it; the freezer doesn’t know what’s in it. ”
I don’t know about this. Air and ice have very different heat kinetics and specific heats. In that sense, the freezer would know very well what’s in it.
That makes sense drumm, then empty jugs would be more economical. Better yet, a top loading freezer.
Empty jugs have no ability to absorb heat. Containers of frozen water do.
Oxy, consider this: The temperature inside the freezer is constant once you finish cooling the contents. Sure, while you are freezing those jugs of water, the compressor feels the pain. After that, it is an isothermal system. The heat capacity of ice [energy/(mass * temperature change] does not enter the analysis if there is no temperature change.
oops, missing the “)” after “change”.
There is always temperature change if the insulation and seals are not perfect. The temperature creeps up slowly as it absorbes heat from the room. When the temperature reaches a certain temperature, the freezer kicks on to cool it. Ice does not absorb heat as well as air does, if only because ice is solid while air is a gas (kinetic). As Carrie Ann says, those blocks take a long time (a lot of heat) to thaw. With ice, temperature goes up more slowly and the freezer kicks on less often = less energy over the long term.
Oxy, I think you’ve strayed into uncharted territory.
Can someone exlain to me why some people think it is a question whether hot water will freeze faster than cold water if both are put in the same conditions (cold enough to cause freezing, size of container, etc.)?
I am aware that the rate of cooling is proportional to the difference of temperatures, so that the hot water cools down faster (per degree) at first. But is it that hard to figure out that the hot water has to become cold water before it becomes frozen water and that means the time for the hot water to freeze HAS to be longer? Do they think the water somehow “remembers” that it used to be hot so that the faster rate of cooling continues even when the difference between the temperature of the water and the environment is smaller?
I have heard this in popular culture contexts a few times and it has always struck me as people trying to prove how dumb they are.
I have seen something with this explained. Its true, depending on conditions. http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/General/hot_water.html
OK that’s it, I’m emailing a prof buddy of mine who used to teach thermo. Maybe he can set it straight…
On the jugs of water, they will keep your food cold for a while longer. once you lose power.
Blue Skye: That’s what I said. The point was getting that food to go as long as possible before spoiling.
Thanks Jim. I need to send that on to my younger brother who once humiliated me in front of his friends when I told him I’d learned this really cool thing at college and he retorted it was the stupidest thing he’d ever heard of and couldn’t possibly be true.
The idiot actually said to me a few years ago he was still pissed years later because I never admitted to him that he was right. I just slunk away. (The way he talked to me in front of others never occured to him as being the reason for my quick exit.)
I have seen something with this explained. Its true, depending on conditions.
http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/General/hot_water.html
When I say I have seen this discussed in popular culture, I am talking about TV shows putting hot tap water and cold tap water in an ice cube tray outside when it is bitterly cold.
I can’t see how any of the proposed explanations can work in those circumstances. An ice cube tray of water isn’t going to meaningfully change the temperature of the great outdoors. Ice cube tray portions are too small for convection currents in the liquid to have much effect. I doubt that hot and cold tap water have much difference when it comes to dissolved gasses. An ice cube tray of water is going to freeze pretty quickly which doesn’t leave much time for evaporation to have an effect.
I still think the people involved are trying to prove how stupid they are.
But oxide, I would love to hear what your friend says. If this is something that only happens with previously boiled water that is only a degree or two warmer than the other sample in huge buckets, I’m going to call my original feelings justified.
Hey Carrie.
“Blue Skye: That’s what I said. The point was getting that food to go as long as possible before spoiling.”
Yes and I was agreeing with you. The part I was disagreeing with is the “it saves electricity” thingy. It wastes electricity.
It can save electricity so long as you have a use for a container of ice. Freezing water takes a lot of energy. Cooling water by once degree (celsius) takes 4.18 kJ/kg while freezing it takes 334 kJ/kg. This is because the change from water to ice requires the removal of a lot of energy to allow the molecules to rearrange themselves into a crystalline structure. What this means is that getting water close to freezing from room temperature takes about 1/3 the energy it takes to freeze it once is is close to freezing.
Once frozen, the ice is a large thermal mass that helps keep everything around it cool for longer than if there were just air in the freezer.
Keeping the freezer full of containers of water can save energy but will work best if the freezer is a stand up freezer and it is opened constantly. Air convection from opening the freezer is likely the biggest heat leak component. This is much stronger in a standup freezer because the cool air will fall out of the freezer when opened.
Where you will lose is if you remove the ice container when you need to put something else in there. The ice container needed energy to become frozen. This energy is lost unless you had a use for a block of ice. As such, the best thing to do to maximize efficiency is to fill the freezer full of frozen things that need to stay frozen, like ice cream.
This stuns me: (cnn)
“The power outage also shut down sewage stations, causing raw sewage to spill into a lagoon, a river and a portion of San Diego Bay, officials said.
Tens of thousands were warned to boil water after a number of pump stations and filtration systems shut down, Sanders said.”
How long was the power out? 12 hours? And they can’t keep the pumps on? What did California do with all the extra tax money that you raked in during the housing bubble? Did they build fancy new fire stations, but didn’t bother to buy a generator or two for back-up power for sewage? That’s what you do with one-time windfalls — you buy one-time expensive stuff.
What did California do with all the extra tax money that you raked in during the housing bubble?
Oxide - your opinion was right on,
and your post was well stated. I
live in So Ca, like many HBB’ers.
From USDA:
“The refrigerator will keep food safely cold for about 4 hours if it is unopened. A full freezer will hold the temperature for approximately 48 hours (24 hours if it is half full) if the door remains closed.”
I ate a frozen meal after loosing power from the hurricane and was sick for about a week. I’d say power was out for about 14 hours to the fridge/freezer before I plugged it into a generator backed outlet in the building hallway. Lesson learned.
“But it will probably be considered a good thing for the economy when everyone goes out tomorrow to replace all their spoiled food and gas up their cars.”
The old Broken Freezer fallacy…
Yep!
This happened in the northeast a few years ago too. Is our grid power really that dependent on a single line here and there? Why does the grid extend into Mexico, not exactly a paragon of infrastructure? And grids are rather regulated, aren’t they? Could you imagine if this were the private market? They’d be cutting even more corners.
If Cali can’t survive a fairly clean break in a single line, what are y’all gonna do during the Big One, when I would expect multiple breaks that require new equipment and multi-day repairs?
I was under the impression from talking to a National Grid employee that when power was down in a single area the flow of electricity could often be rerouted so it didn’t take out large geographical areas.
That works if you have spare capacity. One of problems CA has is that it took offline CO2 producers such as the Mohave coal plant in Nevada (yes with an “h”) but the “green” projects have not come on line as fast as they hoped. This story has been repeated all over this country dozens of coal plants canceled mainly because they were worried over new EPA regulations but the green projects have not come on line since they are worried that the large subsidies needed will not be there. So the country gets no employment or new electricity sources.
I think the blackout occurred because of the loss of a nuclear facility and a large transmission line that ordinarily would handle the flow of power. This happened during a period of peak power use, when excess capacity is at a minimum. If the nuclear facility didn’t have to shut down to isolate itself from voltage fluctuations, this likely wouldn’t have been as widespread as it was.
California gets more than half its electricity from natural gas facilities. These facilities are able to respond to load changes much more quickly than coal facilities so you can’t really blame green power projects for this one. There isn’t much excess transmission capacity in that area, which limits the ability of other generation facilities to respond. If you want to start pointing fingers, NIMBY is probably a better place to turn your frustrations.
Sounds like some infrastructure that needs to be upgraded. Fixing our antiquated electric grid would be a great stimulus project.
Aerial facilities are in very bad condition. Take a look around. Pretzeled poles, lashing wire hanging from cable, stray voltage on guy wires because grounding crews have been disbanded, etc. This is the end result of parsing electric distribution and transmission from generation. Why are electric utilities now nothing more than cable & wire companies? DEREGULATION. Deregulation allowed traditional utilities to peel off the generation facilities(profitable) from the distribution network(unprofitable).
And job #1: grid stops at the borders. Geez, this ought to be basic homeland security.
For several years now the Chinese, among others, have been probing our utility control infrastructure that we have so conveniently connected to the World Wide Web. Maybe they’ve entered a new phase of their testing and have decided to conduct a dry run.
“we have so conveniently connected to the World Wide Web. ”
We did WHAT!?!
let me guess, as a cost-saving measure to make more profit?
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2011-09-09 09:40:38
For several years now the Chinese, among others, have been probing our utility control infrastructure that we have so conveniently connected to the World Wide Web. Maybe they’ve entered a new phase of their testing and have decided to conduct a dry run.
————
That would be far more believable than, “some guy in Arizona made a whoopsie.”
Sounds like some infrastructure that needs to be upgraded. Fixing our antiquated electric grid would be a great stimulus project.
Agreed. I can recall traveling through Europe during the 1970s. Even then, their infrastructure was in much better shape than ours.
Sept. 8, 2011, 7:36 p.m. EDT
Obama pledges to work on broad refinancing program
By Greg Robb
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - President Barack Obama said Thursday that his administration would work with federal housing agencies to help people refinance at lower interest rates. With mortgage interest rates now near 4%, the step “would put more than $2,000 a year in a family’s pocket, and give a lift to an economy still burdened by the drop in housing prices,” Obama said in his speech to a joint session of Congress.
…
“…more than $2,000 a year in a family’s pocket…”
Hah, that’s chump change if you’re raising a family.
It’s better than nothing, but most folks aren’t gonna run out and buy a $30K+ car with their “windfall”.
‘“…would put more than $2,000 a year in a family’s pocket, and give a lift to an economy still burdened by the drop in housing prices,” Obama said in his speech to a joint session of Congress.’
——————–
I would contend that the economy is still burdened by the HIGH housing prices.
Let housing prices drop, and all the savings can be spent in the “real” economy.
Stocks Tumble Worldwide After Obama Speech
By Shiyin Chen and Stuart Wallace - Sep 9, 2011-Bloomberg
Stocks fell worldwide for a second day and the yield on Germany’s two-year note declined to a record after President Barack Obama detailed his $447 billion plan to boost hiring in the U.S. Oil dropped and gold gained.
Obama called on Congress to pass his package after jobs growth stalled last month, fueling concern the U.S. recovery is faltering. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday stopped short of detailing new plans to boost growth, while European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said “downside risks” for the region’s economies have risen. Ministers from the Group of Seven nations will meet in Marseille, France, amid mounting bets on a Greek default.
“The economic situation is getting worse,” said Markus Steinbeis, head of equity portfolio management at the Unterfoehring, Germany-based unit of Pioneer Investments KGmbH, which oversees about $221 billion. “It depends more than ever on what policy makers will do. As long as economic indicators remain as they are right now and emerging markets are tightening their monetary policies, the upside should be limited.”
BofA Cutbacks May Hit 40,000
Bank of America officials have discussed eliminating roughly 40,000 positions during the first wave of a restructuring that Chief Executive Brian Moynihan is expected to discuss Monday, people familiar with the plans said.
Wake me up when they lay off some of their representatives in Congress.
Amen, Blue Skye!
I noticed pages and pages of positions are gone from Indeed for BOA & Chase. Let’s see:
*No Accounting Jobs
*No Shopping Center Management Jobs
*No Loss Mitigation Jobs
Ok, it’s dog walking and “image consultant”, here I come! LOL
The green sector might be hiring, I’ll exhaust that one next. (New light blub laws.) Self employment isn’t my thing.
Awaiting makes a very good point. And that is, shall we say, a lack of taste for self employment. It really isn’t for everyone.
These days, we’re seeing quite an increase in what are called the “involuntarily self employed.” Meaning that, if they had their druthers, they’d rather be working at a job. And, I suspect, most of them will be once the economy improves.
ENVIRONMENT & SCIENCE
SEPTEMBER 9, 2011
Fossil Trove Sheds Light On a Stage of Evolution
BY ROBERT LEE HOTZ
Scientists in South Africa announced a hoard of fossil finds Thursday documenting a puzzling forerunner to modern mankind that lived nearly two million years ago, with human-like hands and ape-like feet.
Unearthed near Johannesburg, the extensive collection of fossils—including the most complete early specimen of a hand known—highlights a sparsely documented era of evolution when four or more ape-like hominid species roamed Africa, each one a natural experiment in anatomy and dawning intelligence. The new finds all belong to a prehuman species of that time called Australopithecus sediba, discovered in 2008.
…
Science troll!
Makes you wonder just who was hoarding these curious bones way back then.
Troll alert.
CIBT impersonator alert.
Narcissistic Personality Disorder alert!
Since the earth is only 10,000 years old, clearly God created those fossils… to test our faith, I guess.
Or maybe becuase he’s a douche bag that wants all intelligent poeple to go to heck.
Maybe they were rejected prototypes. Always a mistake to leave them laying around.
Actually, that’s probably not far off…
I’m not an animal!!!
U.S. NEWS
SEPTEMBER 9, 2011
GOP Candidates Assail Fed Chief
BY SARA MURRAY AND JON HILSENRATH
Some Republican presidential candidates have turned the 2012 campaign into open season on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich both took swipes at the Fed chief at Wednesday night’s GOP debate, piling onto earlier criticism by Texas Governor Rick Perry, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and Texas Rep. Ron Paul.
Mr. Bernanke is facing animosity in part due to criticism of the Fed’s easy-money policies intended to spur hiring and economic growth, and in part because the central bank is unpopular with the GOP’s tea-party wing, which is involved in the presidential nomination process.
…
The “central bank” is unpopular with some of the rest of us too. Bernanke in particular.
Don’t forget Greenspan!
But I do agree with you. I’m far from right-wing, but am totally opposed to the way the Fed has operated over the years. I’m no fan of debt, either.
The Wall Street Journal
ECONOMY
SEPTEMBER 7, 2011
Debt Hobbles Older Americans
BY E.S. BROWNING
More Americans are reaching their 60s with so much debt they can’t afford to retire.
Most people used to pay off their debts before retiring. But as wages have barely kept up with rising prices over the past 35 years Americans have pushed debt higher, living beyond their means. Now, people are postponing retirement, cutting living standards or both.
All kinds of debt held by this age group have risen, but the big problem is mortgages. Thirty-nine percent of households with heads aged 60 through 64 had primary mortgages in 2010 and 20% had secondary mortgages, including home-equity lines, …
“But as wages have barely kept up with rising prices over the past 35 years Americans have pushed debt higher, living beyond their means.”
——–
Which came first, the chicken or the egg?
I think the credit expansion is what pushed prices up beyond what people could afford on their wages, not the other way around.
Among some people that I know who are in that situation or heading towards it, there is a failure to understand their true situation. They want to have a middle class standard of living, but if they actually saved properly for retirement, they could really only afford a working class life. The working class standard of living, in my opinion, is getting by in life with just the bare necessities.
Now some of these people are going spend the last couple of decades of their lives with an income that can’t even provide that working class standard of living.
Wages fell and jobs were lost to “globalization”. The economy stalled and then entered recession.
To fix the recession, we deregulated banking to get debt flowing.
Debt flowing allowed for a strong economy despite fewere and fewer good jobs and lower and lower wages.
When private sector debt hit the wall, government was forced to step up as borrower of last resort to create the new money that the trade imbalance plagued economy needs to function.
So, it wasn’t debt or falling wages that came first. It was globalization that caused both of these.
Oh, we definitely agree on that. I was just pointing out that debt can cause rising prices…when prices *should have been falling* due to lower wages.
Debt is wealth.
Have you ever noticed when you charge your batteries they get stronger, but when you charge your credit card it gets weaker?
I cannot see any way wages go anywhere but down and I mean way down as US wages continue to fall to a worldwide equilibrium. Any mention of protectionist policy brings about conversations about China spanking us with a trade war and collapsing our economy. Perhaps this is true, perhaps it is not, but one thing is certain and that is our wages are far higher here for the same job than they are elsewhere in the world and that imbalance is causing a lot of problems for Western workers.
“…our wages are way higher…”
Who wants to live in a communist country?
The Enid News and Eagle, Enid, OK
September 8, 2011
The coolest country? You’re living in it
…
Ain’t it grand?
The U.S. economy certainly isn’t grand these days. In fact it is a bit of a mess. While we have been named coolest nation in one poll, America has slipped to fifth in another, this one ranking nations in terms of their economic competitiveness.
So why do so many of China’s new wealthy entrepreneurs want to live here? Last year nearly 68,000 Chinese-born people became permanent legal residents of the U.S. Rich Chinese coming here praise our education and health care systems.
…
I’m reminded of the last days of the Nationalists in China.
They spent 1941-49 converting US military aid into cash. Numerous US observers and military attaches reported this to Washington, but, partially thanks to the “China Lobby”, we couldn’t be seen withdrawing support from our “friends” in the face of the Godless Communists.
US military observers knew the war was over, when the Nationalist leaders started loading their gold bars and concubines onto their Lend-Lease C-46s and -47s, and flying to Taiwan.
I’ve been noticing more Chinese lately. In fact, I was golfing with a friend last weekend at a very nice course when we happened upon a Chinese man who looked lost. He was not there golfing, but standing near the tee box as we hit our shot. Whenever we looked over at him, he would quickly turn his head away. The only thing I could figure is he was a real estate “investor” who was checking out houses for sale. It was odd.
That is odd.
The Chinese have been buying up lots of our foreclosures here in California, usually as part of “investor” groups.
P.S. China has pretty well figured out the capitalism thing. Good luck to America if they ever get the freedom thing down…
i did like obama’s quote last night about how we should not be in a race to the bottom but to the top.
however…without closing the southern border it’s just that…a quote.
Amen. In the past 48-72 hours, I’ve read about the Mexican “immigrant” who murdered members of the National Guard in Nevada, the incursion into the US at the El Paso area by Mexican military, and the $850,000 settlement by the US (with the blessing of the US Justice Defartment) given to the family of an illegal who was shot and killed by a border guard after he crossed the border. Mexico is at war with the American people. Problem is, the American gubmint is on Mexico’s side.
“China spanking us with a trade war and collapsing our economy”
HA! This would be the best thing that ever happened to the USA.
Making our own stuff. Wages and profits subject to US taxes. Wasting less oil transporting stuff around the globe. Free shipping containers for everyone!
Amen, again!
“I cannot see any way wages go anywhere but down”
I am told that there is currently a severe shortage of software engineers in the US, but I’m still seeing stagnant wages, unlike during the dot com bubble. Back then SEs at HP received an across the board pay increase as an incentive to stay put.
I have been hearing that for years too…
It IS true there is a shortage of software engineers as CHEAP as in India, Brazil, Eastern Europe etc.
This is all part of the industry efforts to bring in more and more off-shore labor to replace US labor. The same has happened in Europe.
To some extent this may be becoming true in that no one wants to go for a degree in an industry where wages are being pressed strongly by overseas labor rates.
There is one area where software is still in good shape, and that is where a security clearance is required for obvious reasons.
“To some extent this may be becoming true in that no one wants to go for a degree in an industry where wages are being pressed strongly by overseas labor rates.”
Enrollment in Computer Science and related majors has plummetted. A prof at Colorado State told me in 2005 that at the peak they had about 1000 students majoring in CS and MIS. He said the current enrollment was … 90 sudents.
Enrollment in Computer Science and related majors has plummetted. A prof at Colorado State told me in 2005 that at the peak they had about 1000 students majoring in CS and MIS. He said the current enrollment was … 90 sudents.
And how many of them are U.S. citizens? Not many, I’d surmise.
A real shame, because computers are a very big part of our future, and knowing how they work and how to write code is where the power is. Just because something is cheap, does not mean it is good.
For my part I am out of the software biz, at least as an employee. I am fed up with being treated terribly and having my wages reduced with statements like we get 10 Indian guys for the amount we are forced to pay you…
I wonder if Social Security recipients are aware their Social Security has also gone overseas and is not coming back? (GASP)
Here in the land of closer to affordable housing, you’d think more people would be ready for retirement just by watching the behaviors. But the truth is it could be all for show.
Last week had an interesting theme to it. Seemed to be hearing a lot of financial contritions. I think it’d be fair to say that some of people’s “income” may fall into a legal gray area. The stories were interesting because they came from people you’d think would never pull something like that. What is it with people who already do well feeling they have to pad? Oh yeah, the perception or reality of a group they wish to be included in looking down their nose at them. Several stories have been very honest talking about the buying being in response to sometimes deep depression.
Do you have a most specific example? Pull something like what? Buy an Escalade?
Let me guess…. sole proprietors cheating on their taxes.
That’s a biggie, exeter. It disgusts me.
“All kinds of debt held by this age group have risen, but the big problem is mortgages. Thirty-nine percent of households with heads aged 60 through 64 had primary mortgages in 2010 and 20% had secondary mortgages, including home-equity lines, …”
Poor choices don’t result in painful consequences. Caning?
No, but I think you are close. Singapore for decades has had policies in place encouraging high IQ people to have children and low IQ not to have children. Singapore has been moving up the chart on being the most competitive country, I think in part due to this policy. I don’t think it is because of the caning policy but I might be wrong. In this country we seem to have policies that encourage just the opposite. Even private groups that encourage crack addicts not to have children are denounced as being the spawn of Hitler.
Their standard of living, while not third world is still somewhat low. I know people who live there and they can’t afford to A/C their tiny apartments. And it’s tropical hot there year round.
It is the direction and not necessarily their present absolute standard I find interesting. Particularly, since they have to deal with the pressure of China’s low wages even more than we do since they were in the low wage space and they have managed to continue to grow despite that obstacle.
I believe that Singapore has moved from being manufacturing centric to services. Malaysia is their low cost back yard, their Mexico if you will.
Of course it helps to be a tiny island nation ruled by autocrats who can decide which way the country is moving, and I supppose that if as an individual you can’t cut it you can move to Malaysia.
“Even private groups that encourage crack addicts not to have children are denounced as being the spawn of Hitler.”
Just as there is a military-industrial complex and a prison-industrial complex, there is also a welfare-industrial complex. Like any other industry, the w-i complex always wants to grow, and can only do so by having ever more people on welfare. Shrinking welfare means shrinking them, and that’s to be prevented at all costs.
SEPTEMBER 7, 2011
Refresher Class: The Lessons of 2008 Are Timely Again
By JONATHAN BURTON
Investors learned tough lessons as financial markets melted down in 2008.
Some sold in a panic when stocks were at their lows. Others were surprised when fund managers proved just as capable of losing the nest egg as they were.
Now is probably a good time, with markets swaying again amid uncertainty about global economic growth, to ask yourself how well you learned your lessons from 2008.
“Smart people make mistakes,” says Larry Swedroe, director of research at Buckingham Asset Management in St. Louis. “What separates them from fools is they don’t repeat them.”
With that in mind, consider some key investing takeaways from 2008 that are fitting now:
1. Diversification isn’t a cure-all, but it works
…
2. Safe havens are necessary
…
3. Money managers can’t save you in bear markets
….
4. Beware emotional extremes
….
And for heaven sake, think before electing a community organizer.
Becuase McSame would have been any better?
I voted Ron Paul, but he got crushed in the primary.
So, if given 2 choice and:
One guy says, MORE OF THE SAME that got us into the mess. The problem is that the rich aren’t rich enough and the poor aren’t poor enough.
The other guy says “Hope and change” and “Yes we can” then ends up sucking balls because he ends up just doing more of the same.
Was there really a choice?
–Becuase McSame would have been any better?—
Possibly. But, again, see my note regarding all this “yankees vs mets” of politics being pointless. We are at the base of the mountain as a 40 year avalanche sweeps over us. If one or another Prez is slightly better at moving one snowball, it won’t make much difference.
I’m fond of RP too. Sigh.
As one commenter responded to another on an article about the most recent R debate:
“If everyone who said they wanted to vote for Ron Paul would just vote for him, he’d win.”
The Lessons of 2008 Are Timely Again
Except very few lessons were learned in 2008, except maybe “Buy The Big Dips Even Harder”.
Hoffa’s army?
One proposal in the president’s plan, an unemployment program modeled on one in Georgia that places jobless workers in temporary positions, has drawn fire from labor unions.
How does that do anything but drive down wages in the industries where all these unemployed are being placed?
How long until nearly everyone is on foodstamps?
Isn’t that the plan?
No, I think the plan will be to end foodstamps at that point. Then the few who aren’t poor will have to build brick fences topped off with broken glass around their houses, as seen in 3rd world countries.
Sounds like jobs!
The next step is rule by God and King; bend thy knee!
Former Bush adviser stripped of law license
Reuters
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A former adviser to President George W. Bush who pleaded guilty to stealing merchandise from Target was stripped of his law license for a year in an ethics action on Thursday.
Claude Allen, who served as Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy from 2005-2006, admitted to stealing a printer and a stereo from two Target stores in Maryland, misdemeanor thefts. He was sentenced to two years probation and 40 hours of community service.
The decision by the District of Columbia Court of Appeals on Thursday to strip him of his law license stemmed from a separate attorney ethics action brought by the D.C. Office of Bar Counsel after Allen pleaded guilty.
The court’s 12-month suspension was harsher than the 90-day suspension he had previously received in Virginia and Pennsylvania for the same conduct.
In adopting the stiffer penalty, the court found that although Allen’s conduct did not amount to moral turpitude, a year suspension was necessary because of the dishonesty, fraud and deceit involved. Moral turpitude generally is considered a gross violation of the standards of moral conduct.
“Our holding that the theft did not involve moral turpitude does not diminish the severity of (Allen’s) misconduct, especially considering the repeated nature of his offense,” Judge Vanessa Ruiz wrote for the court.
Allen was nominated by Bush in 2003 for a judge’s position with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, but withdrew his nomination after opposition arose from Democrats about his conservative politics.
According to the decision, Allen would use a credit card to purchase an item and would leave the store with the item. He would return to the same or a nearby store with the receipt but without the item. He would then take an identical item off of the shelf and “return” it using the original receipt.
He ended up with the item he originally purchased and money from the return of the item he took from the shelf.
Allen, married with four children, testified he shopped after work to provide a buffer between work and home and to relieve stress. An expert testified that Allen qualified as a kleptomaniac and that his “adjustment disorder” was a result of extraordinary stress related to work.
“An expert testified that Allen qualified as a kleptomaniac and that his “adjustment disorder” was a result of extraordinary stress related to work.”
I’d probably need a rubber room myself if I’d worked with Little Caligula.
Me? I wouldn’t go so far as needing a rubber room.
But I’d be going home from work every day and writing things down. Y’know, the notes for my tell-all White House book. Hey, if George Stephanopoulos could do it with All Too Human, so can I.
My apologies for yet another boring and stupid post on this subject.
At any rate, if the CBO estimates are right, a decrease in mortgage defaults to the tune of 111 thousand is a drop in the bucket when compared to 6,500 thousand mortgages recently reported as at least one month in arrears or worse (111,000 = 1.7% of 6.5m).
Congressional Watchdog: Investors May Lose $15 Billion on Mortgage Refinancing Plan
Thursday, 08 Sep 2011 01:17 PM
By Michael Kling
Private investors would lose $13 billion to $15 billion in a massive federal plan to refinance millions of mortgages with new government-backed mortgages with super low interest rates, says the Congressional Budget Office.
Investors would lose twice as much as borrowers would get in mortgage payment relief, the CBO says in a working paper.
The plan to ease income and loan-to-value standards would prompt about 2.9 million homeowners to refinance and decrease mortgage defaults by 111,000, the CBO estimates.
However, the federal government would face a fair-value loss of about $600 million in the mortgages it guarantees.
“Like their federal counterparts, non-federal investors will see the fair value of their investments fall as a result of this program,” states the CBO report.
…
Yeah… when interest rates fall, people that own bonds lose money.
Oh, but you thought you were geting a free lunch. People we’re locked in and unable to take advantage of lower rates… and you weren’t even on the hook for the loss.
Well guess what. If you aren’t on the hook for the loss, then you do not get to say if people get to refi or not.
Sure, 111K is tiny compared to the millions of mortgages that have and will continue to foreclose. So what?
$600 million fair value loss in the mortgages GOVERMENT GUARANTEES!!!!
If you move in next to an airport, then complain about the noise, my response is STFU!
If you buy something that would not exist without government meddeling, then complain about government meddeling, I have the same response. STFU!
If you wanted to make the rules, then you should have bought something that you were on the hook for the loss. Then you would have my sympathy. If you buy something that has government on the hook for the loss, then government makes the rules.
Might be harder to sell mortgage backed bonds if buyers perceive the interest rates could fall not by any free market conditions but by a government whim.
how do you adjust risk on a bond portfolio to account for government whims? hire Lobbists
Avoid buying bonds backed by government guarantees.
“Might be harder to sell mortgage backed bonds”
Good.
I don’t mind when you post stuff describing the losses, Bear.
I do mind when you preface them with additional comments asking who is going to compensate the investors for their economic losses and implying that there is a loss that could possibly be redressed under the law. The answer is and always has been nobody will compensate them because there is no violation of any kind - neither the law nor any private contract has been broken.
The plan to ease income and loan-to-value standards would prompt about 2.9 million homeowners to refinance and decrease mortgage defaults by 111,000, the CBO estimates.
——————
If they have to “easy income and LTV standards” in order to qualify these borrowers, chances are pretty high that these borrowers will re-default. I’d bet money on it.
Global stocks fall on U.S. growth worries; euro stumbles
LONDON | Fri Sep 9, 2011 5:59am EDT
(Reuters) - World stocks fell on Friday, keeping safe-haven government debt well-bid on investor worries that U.S. policymakers are not taking urgent steps to stop the world’s biggest economy from tipping back into recession.
The euro sank to a near six-month low against the dollar after the region’s festering debt crisis forced the European Central Bank on Thursday to shift away from further rises in interest rates, a key driver in the single currency’s rally this year.
European stocks snapped a two-day recovery after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke left the door open for new stimulus measures but stopped short of signaling the central bank would take the plunge.
Equity markets were also concerned that President Barack Obama’s proposed $447 billion package of tax cuts and spending plans aimed at boosting growth and job creation could be hamstrung by political wrangling when it goes to Congress.
“Investors are holding back…There isn’t any reason to commit until you can see credible policies,” Justin Urquhart Stewart, director at Seven Investment Management, said.
…
Not that the President can do much beyond suggesting stuff to Congress, but the proposed tax cuts and spending increases dwarf what the Super Congress Committee is supposed to accomplish in the other direction.
Isn’t the supercommittee looking for another $1.5 trillion of cuts?
Over ten years. That works out to 150 Billion per year.
This is going to be played like “job creation”. They told us how many jobs they were creating all the while the number of employed was going down. They will tell us how much they have cut all the while spending more.
Which is exactly what they should do when the economy is in the pits, expecially with interest rates as low as they are. Inject cash now and let everyone know how that spending will be pulled back and paid for in the future.
I would like my kids to have some chance at a healthy economy in their lifetimes. A lot of reform is needed. Throwing huge piles of money at this broken system has not worked.
Actually, it worked very well. It prevented an even larger collapse. Imagine if all the current government cutbacks had happened at the same time as the private sector ones?
Working well and working enough are not the same thing.
As for this proposal, I wouldn’t worry about it if I were you. Because it isn’t going to happen. A few bits and pieces maybe, but not much. As for me? I’ll worry. Because it isn’t going to happen.
I understand what you are saying, and BTW in a wierd twist the stim money put food on the table here for the past two years. I disagree about “it” working well.
The borrowed money that has been thrown at the economy in the past couple of years would easily have fed every person in the country. We were never in grave personal danger. My beef is that the lion’s share of this money has gone to the big monied interests. I would have let them all fail. We would have a new banking system already if we had. I think we’d be better off by far.
My beef is that the lion’s share of this money has gone to the big monied interests. I would have let them all fail. We would have a new banking system already if we had. I think we’d be better off by far.
Have to agree with you again, Blue.
investor worries that U.S. policymakers are not taking urgent steps to stop the world’s biggest economy from tipping back into recession.”
QE3 ? thats what they want for stocks I guess, bond market is pretty happy though
Bloomberg
U.S. Stock-Index Futures Decline; S&P 500 May Trim Weekly Gain
September 09, 2011, 5:48 AM EDT
By Cecile Vannucci and Lynn Thomasson
Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stock futures dropped, signaling the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will trim this week’s advance, after President Barack Obama detailed his $447 billion plan to boost hiring.
Texas Instruments Inc., the world’s largest maker of analog chips, slid 1.6 percent in German trading after cutting its revenue forecast. Bank of America Corp. rose 1 percent.
Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in December fell 0.3 percent to 1,176.4 at 10:23 a.m. in London after earlier gaining as much as 0.7 percent. The gauge has risen 1 percent this week. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 18 points, or 0.2 percent, to 11,205 today.
Obama’s plan is “a typical idea to create jobs by political discussions,” Kai Fachinger, who manages about $750 million at SAM Sustainable Asset Management AG in Zurich, said in a phone interview. “I see it, personally, not as a positive.”
…
The Bernanke is saying, ‘We are going to use aggressive financial tools to get this economy going, to get unemployment down.’
Wait a minute, I thought it was gubmints roll to “create” jobs. Now a group of private banksters is going to jump in. Cool, they can fly the mission accomplished banner soon.
I think it’s more like the government is the job creator of last resort. Not like private sector is doing much — no customers, you see.
That’s what happens when corporations fire their customers and replace them with slave wage third worlders.
+1
“. Now a group of private banksters is going to jump in. ”
Yeah, that’s how monetarism works. You flood the Big Boyz with cash, and sit back and let them work their ‘magic’. But as Keynes pointed out, they’re just pushing on a string in a major recession. Nothing to do with that cash other than blow commodity bubbles or invest in Chindia.
By now he’s got to realize that the mere passage of time is seriously diluting the solvency of his endless innuendos.
Realtors Are Liars®
Today’s houses:
House 1: The snap-up, if you like high taxes.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2630-Norbeck-Rd-Silver-Spring-MD-20906/37277829_zpid/#{scid=hdp-site-map-list-address}
1964 1300 sq ft 3/1.5 brick rambler on 1.12 acre. No pix of the interior yet. A little out of the way, but still near a commuter road, in a country-ish setting. I’m not looking seriously until early next year, but if this house is still available, I would consider an offer.
Feb 2006: Sold $520K <— taxes based on this.
Sep 2011: Listed $269K Short sale.
Day on Zillow: 3.
I expect this to be snapped up and flipped.
House 2: What is this, Amish?
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4504-Furman-Ct-Silver-Spring-MD-20906/37294309_zpid/#{scid=hdp-site-map-list-address}
1946 1900 6/3 sq ft colonial farmhouse in need of a farm.
Sep 2004: Sold $365K
Feb 2011: Listed $325K
Apr 2011: Listed $240K <—- mid 2002 price. I’d start at $199K just because the house needs a lot of updating.
I expect this kind of house in Lancaster county, not on a cul-de-sac. Probably well built but you can’t see it through all the clutter and the PAINT!
No need for coffee in this house. Just looking at the walls will give you the jitters. Kitchen needs $30K for sure.
I’ve never bought a house with two flights of steps at the entrance, but know a few who have. It’s a mistake only made once.
I don’t get why when people shop for houses they make a list of things to change. On those shows about buying a house I hear the phrase “The kitchens needs to be updated”. Or the “Bathroom needs to be updated”.
Its a place to live. If the kitchen works, why change it? Why does a bathroom need to be modern?
Sorry for the venting.
Chrome valve covers, you might get that.
Its a place to live. If the kitchen works, why change it? Why does a bathroom need to be modern?
That’s how I feel too. I can cook just fine in the little galley kitchen that I have now. And the bathrooms fit my needs perfectly.
So, no big remodels around here.
Wow - taxes went from $2,696 (2007) to $5,342 (2011) in 4 YEARS!
Who really owns your house? Do you or do the public union goons who demand that taxes be raised to infinity to support their “lifestyle”…
The high tax isn’t caused by the tax rate. The high tax comes from the high assessment value. And since the assessment value was based on a 2006 sale price, it’s the fault of the FB who bought the darn thing, NOT the union goons.
Why does everything have to be goons these days? Are you incapable of distinguishing that different things cause different things?
And by the way, in MoCo, I believe that property taxes are adjusted every three years, which is why the high taxes didn’t show up until 2009. That was a perk of the housing bubble on the increasing side: you paid low-value taxes on an increasing-value house. I’m sure the flippers knew this full well. And it wouldn’t surprise me if the taxes alone were enough to BK some of the FB’s who lived in the house 3-4 years.
On the exit side, you’ll be paying high taxes on a deflating asset. I wonder how much success a buyer would have if they requested a reassessment based on the short sale price.
The high tax isn’t caused by the tax rate. The high tax comes from the high assessment value. And since the assessment value was based on a 2006 sale price, it’s the fault of the FB who bought the darn thing, NOT the union goons.
Property taxes rarely if EVER go down.
It has all been spent on public union goon contracts. Cause times were good and the money was just ROLLING in. Why - it was only fair.
There are no give-backs when times get bad.
When they value of the house goes down they will just raise the tax rate.
Especially in Maryland.
“When they value of the house goes down they will just raise the tax rate”
Exhibit A: Post Industrial New York State.
Tax revenues going up during the housing bubble was a windfall for all local governments. As a consequence we have had a leveraged Government Bubble. We didn’t just spend the new revenue, we borrowed up the ying yang. My own Yates County is a poster child.
Government is sticky on the way down.
When they value of the house goes down they will just raise the tax rate.
Especially in Maryland.
You guys need TABOR, and bad.
“Property taxes rarely if EVER go down… It has all been spent on public union goon contracts.”
I thought you’d like a public goon’s perspective: here is the tax role for the house I rent, which is NOT capped by save our homes:
2010 $2,683
2009 $3,009
2008 $3,560
2007 $4,472
2006 $4,954
Comment by 2banana
2011-09-09 08:01:25
The high tax isn’t caused by the tax rate. The high tax comes from the high assessment value. And since the assessment value was based on a 2006 sale price, it’s the fault of the FB who bought the darn thing, NOT the union goons.
Property taxes rarely if EVER go down.
It has all been spent on public union goon contracts. Cause times were good and the money was just ROLLING in. Why - it was only fair.
There are no give-backs when times get bad.
——————-
You must be getting your info from Faux News, banana.
Out here in California, almost every department has given things up — lower wages, higher healthcare costs, higher pension contributions, etc.
Do you or do the public union goons
You’ve been clear on your opinions of unions…is the repetition necessary? I can see how a union member would see it as a personal attack.
Well … you know what those private sector, right to work goons are like
Greek default imminent.
Greece did not meet the EU demands of for further financial assistance, which means they will run out of funds mid October. Their GDP is contracting at an 8% annual rate.
For any further financial assistance the approval of all 17 EURO nations is required. Some countries are getting a severe case of bailout fatigue. The Solvak government postponed any vote on further assistance until December. I read an interview with one of their politicians who said that he hopes the problem will work itself out in a natural way, ie. they will default by then. The mood in Finland, Austria and Netherlands is also anti bailout. France will have presidential elections in 2012. Currently “Front National” candidate Marine LePen leads Sarkozy in opinion polls. Yep, the National Front. By the name alone you get a pretty good idea where they stand on immigration and the EURO.
German politicians still want to bailout everything and everybody but the anger in the population starts building rather quickly. Besides that, the German economy (27% of Euroland) is slowing and soon Spain and Italy need bailouts as well. The only way to save the EURO is for the ECB to start printing money on a massive scale. Personally I don’t think it is worth saving but my opinion is not the one that matters. Either way, I predict the EURO substantially declining in value over the next several months.
I suspect that if Germany goes back to DMarks, they will have a very difficult time keeping the value down.
True, but their export are to a large degree specialy items needed for industrial production. Customers will pay. The auto industry will take a hit, but on the other hand it will lower the price of the imports of natural resouces. They had a very similar constellation before the EURO.
When the PIIGS default, a lot of paper wealth will go bye, bye and a lot of CDFs will come due. Given the recent drama over the debt ceiling I don’t anticipate another large scale bailout. There will be blood, get ready.
Agreed, Mike. Good post.
We can see of preview of that with Japan right now - another exporter dealing with that issue. Heck, not six/seven years ago a buck bought ~125 JPY.
Even so, what they make is still in demand as evidenced by the global supply chain disruptions after the March disaster. The question is, is that enough?
Or the Swiss. They decided to print Francs in whatever quantity needed to hold the value of their currency down. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Maybe it is time for a “USA Labor Front” party.
1) End free trade. (Large tariff on money leaving the country)
2) Revert to 1950s style income tax structure. (Low or no payroll tax and steep income tax with top marginal rate near 90%)
3) Lock down jobs and housing so illegals will self deport.
4) Bring home our troops and cut military spending 50%, mostly to the Navy, Air Force and new weapons development.
5) Non-proft healthcare funds with the power to negotiate drug prices and enforce cost/benefit discipline to cut healthcare costs in half.
6) Double minimum wage and Social Security.
7) Drastically increase fractional reserve and margin requirements to drain leverage out of the banking sector, shrink total debt, and force the “too big to fail” into insolvancy. Let them fail and use funds to prop up (or start) smaller, more solvant banks.
9) After we’ve returned manufactruing jobs to the USA and caused upward wage preasure, then take a giant axe to welfare programs like food stamps, housing assistance, AFDC.
10) Weaken labor unions after we’ve provided many of the good things they have fought for (higher pay and healthcare) via law.
I’d vote for that party.
I’m with you until we get to the union part. After we dismantle the unions, how long do you think it will take before the capitalists are back in control of our politicians, changing policies to benefit themselves at the expense of the productive workers?
Wall Street: Obama’s plan is irrelevant.
I agree. A normal response to a normal recession. It might limit the pain for a year, but that’s it, and then we’d be right back where we are.
It is understandable that President Obama is a big believer in what this country used to be, with his child of immigrant made good rags to riches story. He doesn’t understand that today’s youth do not have the same opportunities, and today’s middle aged won’t be taking cruises when they reach old age. The children of Generation Greed will be eating do food, like the parents of Generation Greed in the 1970s.
Over and over again, the optimists have been right about the U.S. They could be again, but not before a very bad decade.
“Over and over again, the optimists have been right about the U.S.”
That was before the US became China’s “trading partner”, before the US became Mexico’s poodle.
Yup its over…there is no more hopie and changie coming from the big OH….its all on crusie control to the end.
To say the least i am stunned by the Hype and Fail……I really though he had one for the gipper left in him….
Nothing mentioned about all those millions who can never qualify for any help because they ran out of all benifits a long time ago.
Maybe he should have said swallow your pride and apply for welfare food stamps and medicaid tomorrow, since congress will never pass anything i will offer.
“since congress will never pass anything i will offer. ”
…which might explain WHY there was Hype and Fail?
On the dog food, isn’t tunafish cheaper? There are too many choices in dog food for me.
No.
Tunafish are a limited resource which are in demand from countries all over the world. They are already fished near regulatory limits.
By contrast, so far as I am aware, there is no similar limiting constraint on dogfood production.
If we don’t turn the country around soon many will being eating dog never mind dog food.
PLEASE please dont ever revet to eating my precious little cats…
I’d eat a cat before a dog. I love dogs too much.
More band aids for sucking chest wounds.
Americans aren’t totally stupid. Even those with the thickest skulls have seen the trend lines; more work, less pay, no job mobility, inflating prices, and eventual elimination of pensions, Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid. Nothing will wreck your finances worse than borrowing money when your take-home is continually going down.
At best, there is nothing coming from our national, so-called leadership to indicate they even comprehend what the problem is. At worst, is the suspicion that this is all been by design, and that government and business leaders have sold us out.
The giant sucking sound coming from Mexico and China continues unabated, as jobs farther up the food chain are relocated there, and they export their wretched refuse to us. Intellectual property theft has turned most products into commodities, where quality and design command no pricing premium.
Business leaders continue to sell out, in pursuit of the candy-crapping unicorn known as the “gigantic Chinese consumer market”.
Here’s my fix:
-Cut everyone’s pay by 50% (we’re heading that way anyway)
-Cut the book value of everyone’s assets by 50% (ditto)
-Forgive all debts. And I mean ALL. (ditto)
-Mortgage holders get to keep the houses they are in. Everyone else gets free houses. Set up something like the Oklahoma Land Rush. It will be great entertainment, if nothing else…..
“-Forgive all debts. And I mean ALL. (ditto)”
Could you please wait until we buy our $1m dream home before this measure is passed?
Since almost all assets are just other people’s debts and not productive capital these days, if you cut debts 100% you are probably cutting assets 90%.
I doubt you could be approval for the consitutional changes required for the government to make this happen. But we have had two opportunities for the government to LET this happen, and a third may be coming.
Finally, if everyone’s pay is cut 50%, they will still have to pay just as much in taxes for our dear seniors, who are exempt from any reductions.
My thought exactly.
Forgive all debt, then there is NO money. Every bit of money in existance exists because someone borrowed it into existance. If the debt goes away, the money goes away.
The money in your bank account is money the bank owes you. Forgive the bank’s debt, there is not money in your account.
If you hold any bonds, that is someone oweing you. Forgive the debt, the bond is gone.
The green, foldy money in your wallet has value becuase people that have debt are willing to trade you stuff for the money so that they can repay their debt. Debt goes away, the green foldy in your pocket has no value.
“Pay” includes Social Security and Medicare.
The banks are going down the crap tubes, because of their gambling. Their investors/debtors will be left holding the crapbag.
OTOH, everybody that owes them money will still be expected to pay them back at par. So the wealth transfer up the food chain will continue.
Anyone who thinks this will turn out differently is smoking crack, (IMO).
Downward pressure on wages/salaries is everywhere you look, even in “in demand/high skill” specialties. Companies are deciding how much they want to pay to fill positions, and if they can’t find someone to fill that position at the price they want to pay, the position remains unfilled.
The problem that many of us are having is that we’ve been required to become so specialized, you become a “custom fit” for a job. Then when the job goes away for whatever reason, nobody wants to pay for “alterations” (retraining,certifications, etc)
Pilot’s have a real problem with this. Practically all of the open positions require that they be “current” in whatever type of airplane is being operated. If you have been laid off over six months, you aren’t “current”. Takes writing a $10-15K check to Warren Buffett/FSI to get “current”.
Companies are deciding how much they want to pay to fill positions, and if they can’t find someone to fill that position at the price they want to pay, the position remains unfilled.
Ain’t that the truth! And don’t forget, you have to be a “perfect match” to get the job. Missing 1 requirement out of 50: disqualified.
Oh I forgot……..
“then, the company starts bitching about not being able to find “qualified Americans” to fill their positions.
“Qualified Americans” = Experienced people that require no training, who will work for $12/hour, and don’t need money for relocation.
And who makes that decision? a 23 yo chicky-poo who is doing the boss behind the wife’s back….HR professional….I havent talked to one in Years!…
—————
you have to be a “perfect match” to get the job. Missing 1 requirement out of 50: disqualified
Car has a flat tire. Here, let me pump some more air into it. Oh, problem fixed.
Hmmmm…. if you have to keep pumping air into the tire, perhaps there might be a leak…
Something wicked comes this way
I am not into Jim Kunstler type fear mongering but I have the eerie feeling the world financial system will be going over the edge in the not too distant future. All it takes is a catalyst like a major bank going belly up, a Greek default, Italy or Spain loosing access to the financial markets due to decreasing response to their treasury auctions. I recently took an extremly defensive stand in my personal finances, the downside potential is huge.
I recently took an extremly defensive stand in my personal finances
Buried something in the back yard???
Sort of…I prefer to store stuff outside of the grasp of the financial system.
How about the cliché: “I don’t care if it rains or freezes as long as I have my plastic Jesus?”
The Right Rev. Dr. Billy Sol Hargus pastor of First Church of the Gooey Death and Discount House of Worship from Del Rio Texas… The gold buckle of the Bible belt.
Shakespeare said it better: “Something wicked this way comes.”
Yeah, I made a D in that class.
P.S. I agree w/ your main point; I have recently experienced a similar feeling that something in the global financial system was about to snap, Lehman style.
Same here. Just remember that the inevitable can take a very long time arriving.
I have had a really strong sense of foreboding for the past few weeks. Hard to tell if it’s just about the markets or if it’s tinged w/feelings re: Sept 11th. For some reason this anniversary is hitting me particularly hard cocmpared to the previous ones. Maybe its only because after 10 years one would expect these feelings to dissipate a bit more by now.
The interviews w/the school children Bush was reading to that day, now hs seniors, really seems to affect me for some reason.
Yep. Per my comments yesterday. Our current leadership might not be competent, but the process with which they wrestle has been evolving for more than a generation, say 40 years or so. We are in the endgame now, wondering how it happened, wondering why a given fix by a Democrat or by a Republican doesn’t solve the mess, having limited insight that we are at the bottom of a massive avalanche, and wondering why moving one snowball doesn’t fix the thing.
A tad depressing, when one thinks about it, really.
“I am not into Jim Kunstler type fear mongering”
I’ve read Kunstler for well over ten years now. He’s off on quite a bit, but one thing he has absolutely nailed is how our current living “patterns” are void of meaningful interaction, and our architecture sucks. He understands scale, and how people interact in a given space really well.
I don’t think anyone can accurately predict how it will all unwind. There are so many possibilities it’s silly to make an earnest speculation.
I’m with you, Mike, et al. Have been feeling very anxious about something big happening the past couple of months.
Mo Money! We’ll be able to blast through the $16 trillion mark in no time! On ward and upward, who cares it will never be repaid anyway.
ITEM: Senate Approves $500 Billion Increase in Borrowing Authority
(WSJ)
The U.S. Senate, in an unusual procedure, cleared the way Thursday for the U.S. to lift its borrowing authority by $500 billion to $15.19 trillion, enough to keep the support federal government borrowing through late January or early February.
The action came under an unusual legislative procedure spelled out under the August agreement to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and avoid a U.S. credit default. In a 52-45 vote, the Senate blocked an attempt by Republicans to slow down the process that will result in the $500 billion debt-ceiling increase.
The increase stems from a deal between Congress and the White House, finalized last month, that spells out how the borrowing limit would be increased by $500 billion. Under the process, lawmakers in both the House and Senate must vote on a resolution of disapproval against the increase in the borrowing limit. President Barack Obama would then have to veto the resolution of disapproval, and Congress would then vote to try and override that veto.
The complicated procedure, designed by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.), would allow an increase of the borrowing limit while allowing most Republicans to vote against such an increase.
There was a twist in this scenario Thursday evening, however. Democrats held firm, rejecting the resolution of disapproval, thereby speeding the process and increasing the borrowing limit immediately.
Only Sen. Ben Nelson (D., Neb.) broke from his party to vote with the Republicans in trying to move forward with the measure.
The next increase in the borrowing limit, likely in the first quarter of next year, will be dependent on the ability of a panel of 12 lawmakers to reach a deal that cuts at least $1.2 trillion from federal budget deficits over the next decade.
ECB chief economist Jürgen Stark resigns
Sorry, the article is in German.
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,785382,00.html
This is pretty big news. He was the last influential ECB member that stood between the ECB and large scale PIIGS treasury purchases. So it appears that EURO-land will try to print themselves out of the current dilemma. Got gold?
Indeed it is big news:
“U.S. stocks fell sharply on Friday as the European Central Bank confirmed the resignation of Governing Council member Juergen Stark and as Bloomberg News reported Germany was readying a contingency plan to safeguard its banks. ”
“Some in Europe are finally realizing that the money being funneled to Greece to buy time from the inevitable would be better put to use to recapitalize banks to insulate them from sovereign haircuts,” Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Milller Tabak, wrote in an email.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-battered-by-ecb-members-exit-2011-09-09
Marc Faber: Obama’s Job Package ‘a Complete Joke’
Friday, 9 Sep 2011 | By: Patrick Allen
CNBC EMEA Head of News
Pimco’s Mohamed El-Erian might like what he sees in President Barack Obama’s $447 billion jobs package but not Marc Faber, the author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom report, who is not happy about the President’s plan.
The package is “another complete failure of Keynesian economics and corrupt interventions,” Faber told CNBC.com on Friday morning.
Other economists have welcomed the plan as it attempts to boost employment.
Faber’s major problem is that governments around the world should be attempting to cut spending, not spend more.
“This all amid talk of deficit reductions,” said Faber. The package is a “complete joke.”
On Thursday Nomura raised its third-quarter growth estimate for the US economy to 2.6 percent while Goldman Sachs’ chief economist Jan Hatzius told CNBC on Thursday that he may have been too bearish.
Hatzius said growth “now actually looks like it might come in a little stronger than” the 1 percent he had previously predicted.
“The bond and stock markets seem to have a different view,” said Faber.
How long can the US economy withstand running 10+% of GDP deficits? We’re now entering the 4th year of mega sized deficits with no end in sight.
By the way, in 2001 the congressional budget office predicted a $850 billion budget SURPLUS for 2011. They were only off by a little over $2 trillion. How credible do you think their 2021 predictions are?
Go google sometime to see what social security and medicare were going to cost a few decades out when they were enacted.
It is amazing.
ALL government programs are grossly underestimated in their actual true costs (by orders of magnitudes). It is almost like a pattern.
But we fall for it every time.
Sure, in 1936 SS was projected to cost very little. By 1939 people were seeing the tiny little checks and demanded much bigger one. 1939 broke Social Security. They just decided that 1+1 = 4.
Then, in the 1970s with high inflation they added COLAs and just up and decided that 1+1 = 8.
I guess it depend son what you mean by “withstand”.
Negative effects are definitely already being felt.
As for “how long can this go on?” … that is a very good question. When I lived in Mexico they kept the printing press running for a loooong time (over a decade) and heavy inflation became a fact of life. It wasn’t until Mexico slipped into hyperinflation that the house of cards came crashing down.
Some effects of high inflation, people may bark at you
José López Portillo y Pacheco (June 16, 1920 – February 17, 2004) was the President of Mexico from 1976 to 1982.
¡Defenderé el peso como un perro! – “I will defend the peso like a dog!” It earned him the nickname ‘El perro’ (The dog) and having people barking at him. 1981.
And things weren’t all that bad then … yet. What happened was that oil prices collapsed and Mexico ran out of foreign reserves, forcing a currency devaluation, which back then was psychologically devastating for Mexico’s middle and upper classes. They also restricted to possesion of foreign currency at the time. If you entered the country as a tourist you were expected to exchange all your foreign currency upon arrival into pesos (they would exchange whatever you had left back into dollars when you left). Mexican credit cards were invalid outside Mexico for a while. I recall an Amex card my dad had with the words “Valid Only in Mexico” stamped on it.
The truth was that back then the peso was overvalued, to the point that I friends who would hop onto a plane to Texas with empty suitcases and fill them with new clothes which cost as little as 1/3 what they cost in Mexico City department stores. The devaluation put an end to that.
Lopez Portillo later built a familiy compound on a hill top, which was nicknamed “Colina del Perro”: dog hill.
Well…
We could have all these people sitting at home collecting unemployment or welfare
or…
We could have them working on infrastructure
Neither is ideal, but I think the latter is better.
True infrastructure projects I agree with, but high speed rail projects, bike baths etc. are what he really wants to fund and they are white elephants that do not make us more competitive. Look he needs to dial back his green agenda if he really want to turn this economy around. Proposing what he knows will not pass is not leadership, it is the type of politics he claimed when he was running he would avoid. You and I both agree on NGV, why nothing in his speech about that? More drilling for oil and gas increases jobs and produces revenue. Even addressing the uncertainty in power plant construction could be addressed by a compromise. The EPA loses the ability to regulate CO2 emissions for a reasonable carbon tax which will be earmarked for subsidies to alternative energy. The coal plants will get built employing 100,000s of people and the green technologies will have a guaranteed funding source which will allow them to make progress lowering the cost of alternative sources. The country gains jobs, taxes and it lowers our trade deficit and budget deficit. No the problem is that we have a very ideological president to go along with a very ideological congress. The latter we had even in Reagan’s day but despite his own ideology he could arrange a compromise that allowed him to pass legislation even though only briefly did he even control the Senate and he never controlled the House. Obama with a large majority in both houses got very little through and now his health care is heading for a ruling of unconstitutionality by the Supreme Court.
FWIW, in my neck of the woods there was some freeway work done with the stim bucks.
I would never argue that some of the stimulus money was not spent correctly but just we could have and should have gotten more bang for the buck. Look to a certain extent all deficit spending is stimulus so running a 1.5 trillion dollar deficit is stimulus. So Obama is getting plenty of stimulus. However, the real question which many asked but was ignored or dismissed by Biden is how much of a multiplier do you get from the stimulus. I contend that spending $30 billion on creating a NGV infrastructure would probably be generating 100’s of billions of savings for the U.S. economy, by now. Finally, in a continuation of my previous post, I think people on the left must ask themselves is it better to make the type of compromise I discussed or is it better to wait for Perry to win and with a Republican Congress strip the EPA of the ability to regulate CO2 and have no carbon tax and no subsidies for alternative energy? BTW, there are enough fossil fuels still left in this country that he will still be able to lower energy prices without alternatives. Of course, the next president, after him, will face an even tougher energy problem. Look both Hitler and Stalin at various points in WWII adopted no retreat policies over the objection of their generals and they lead to disasters. Sometime a tactical retreat is the best strategy. Clinton understood this after 1994, it is unfortunate that Obama does not.
Yeah..giving corporations huge tax breaks was a really bad “bang for the buck”. The hope was they’d spend the money to create jobs. They did not.
Tax breaks for corporations were a huge waste.
Dan:
These two quotes are from your post above
Proposing what he knows will not pass is not leadership
The EPA loses the ability to regulate CO2 emissions for a reasonable carbon tax which will be earmarked for subsidies to alternative energy.
You know that the Republicans are against all tax increases, don’t you? So you’re suggesting that the president engage in poor leadership.
Actually, at least at the beginning of the Obama administration there was a similar proposal that had a lot of Republican support but he shot that down. Even today a lot of businesses would put a lot of pressure on their representatives to vote for something that gave them certainty. Remember if Obama can just keep his own party in line, he does not need very many opposition votes to pass legislation. So there is not anything inconsistent with the two quotes. Most business people understand that regulation can be more burdensome than taxation and since conservatives understand that too, trading low taxation to remove heavy regulation is not that tough of a sell for a true leader.
Well, if you are going to pay them UI equivilant to build stuff, then you are simply going to undercut and crush the wage power of the existing workers.
From what I read, the markets are reacting negatively to the situation in Europe. I don’t see what the U.S. can possibly to about that.
Engineering firm in Auburn closes
Cullinan files for bankruptcy By Ellie Oleson CORRESPONDENT
AUBURN, MA — Cullinan Engineering Co. Inc., one of the state’s most visible civil engineering firms, has quietly closed without public notice after a bankruptcy filing.
The once-ubiquitous company, based on Auburn Street, had not been represented recently at local government board meetings.
Reached at his home, Robert B. Cullinan, company president, said, “It’s just out of business. There’s nothing to talk about.”
He declined further comment, except to say that at the time the company closed, it was owned by “the Cullinans.”
Mr. Cullinan signed the Chapter 7 bankruptcy filing June 27 in a U.S. Bankruptcy Court document. The company lists $22,545 in assets and $1,350,465 in liabilities. Chapter 7 is designed “to achieve a fair distribution to creditors of the debtor’s available non-exempt property,” according to The Associated Press.
Calls to the company’s offices in Auburn, Cambridge and Lakeville were not answered. In Auburn, an automated response states: “The mailbox is full.”
Lloyd G. Bristol, the firm’s former vice president of transportation, has started his own independent traffic consulting business, Bristol Traffic and Transportation Consulting LLC of North Brookfield.
“I was with Cullinan for 30 years. It’s sad,” he said, declining to discuss why the company closed.
Town Planner Adam R. Burney said the company’s closing “leaves a big hole in the community. It’s sort of a shock. They were one of the few shops who had comprehensive staff with their own survey crews. Anytime an established firm closes, it is a loss to the community.”
The company’s still-active website states that Cullinan was “established in 1940,” and its “50 technical professionals and support staff” provided “quality civil engineering, land surveying and transportation design services to federal, state and local agencies, municipalities, real estate developers, property managers, architects and other design professionals.”
I guess not much to survey and build anymore, yet NO $$$ in Oh’s job bills for bridges and rails…
it will take months to repair the port jevis line….
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/02/nyregion/port-jervis-train-line-will-take-months-to-repair.html
Yet ill bet they could get it done a lot faster with more $$$ and more manpower…time vs money and the people who use it for work suffer
Another reason why “WPA” projects aren’t going to work.
The railroads don’t have their own track crews/civil engineers anymore. A bunch of it has been farmed out to outfits like RJ Corman.
Who have a lot of highly trained people, running state of the art track laying machinery. Not a lot of low skill/untrained help needed.
The problem is, there are only enough of them to cover normal contingencies. So the repair work has to wait until they can get to it.
Dirty Word: Debt
Richard Russell Snippet
Dow Theory Letters
Sept. 9 2011
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell090911.html
~ When governments, planners and meddlers try and shore up inevitable failures it just makes it all the worse. Greece will default and the dominoes will continue until all the malignant debt is wiped out. Good thing it can’t happen here, we have smarter meddlers.
ITEM: Germany Said to Ready Plan to Help Banks If Greece Defaults
By Alan Crawford - Sept. 9, 2011 - Bloomberg
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is preparing plans to shore up German banks in the event that Greece fails to meet the terms of its aid package and defaults, three coalition officials said.
The emergency plan involves measures to help banks and insurers that face a possible 50 percent loss on their Greek bonds if the next tranche of Greece’s bailout is withheld, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the deliberations are being held in private. The successor to the German government’s bank-rescue fund introduced in 2008 might be enrolled to help recapitalize the banks, one of the people said.
The existence of a “Plan B” underscores German concerns that Greece’s failure to stick to budget-cutting targets threatens European efforts to tame the debt crisis rattling the euro. German lawmakers stepped up their criticism of Greece this week, threatening to withhold aid unless it meets the terms of its austerity package, after an international mission to Athens suspended its report on the country’s progress.
Greece is “on a knife’s edge,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told lawmakers at a closed-door meeting in Berlin on Sept. 7, a report in parliament’s bulletin showed yesterday. If the government can’t meet the aid terms, “it’s up to Greece to figure out how to get financing without the euro zone’s help,” he later said in a speech to parliament.
Greece cut spending and raised taxes. What happened? Massive recession that prevented the budget from being balanced, threatening to turn into a depression if further efforts are made to fix the government deficit.
You can’t spend your way out of a trade imbalnce, but you also can’t cut your way out.
You actually have to target actions AT the trade imbalance.
For the USA, that would mean a large tariff on money leaving the country and a return to a 1950s style tax code with a tiny or non-existant payroll tax and a very steep income tax peaking at or near 90%.
You can’t spend your way out of a trade imbalnce, but you also can’t cut your way out.
You can if you have control over your currency. If Greece had its own currency it would be dropping in value and that would make their tourist industry at least most competitive. They also could be paying the creditors back by printing money. I have said from the beginning that their leaving the EU would be best for everyone. But there does seem to be a force that wants to have one world government and they don’t seem to want to retreat from that view. So instead of cutting Greece free they advocate even stronger fiscal ties between the EU nations.
The Greek economy IS government spending. They are almost identical. So when you cut government spending the economy collapses. Greece had over 10 years where money was flowing from big pots of gold in Brussels towards Athens. All they did was increasing spending on pencil pushers and corruption instead of building some kind of industry besides fraud and tax evasion. Now time is up, as it is in many other places as well.
Is that like the USA where the only industries we have left are “military industrial complex”, “generating, servicing, and trading debt” and “selling each ohter imported stuff we don’t need and can’t afford without new debt”?
Oh, right. Greece is far worse than us. Debt = 152% of GDP, deficit is 10% of GDP. Government spending is 50% of ecoomy.
Here, debt is 100% of GDP, deficit is 10% of GDP, and government spending is only 23% of GDP.
Oh, but Greece has a much more centralized government vs. our state/local system. Shall we add in state and local debt, spending, deficits?
Z1 says state and local debt is $2.45T. (14.7T+2.45T)/14.7T = 116% of GDP.
Z1 says state and local debt $53B in the last year. This is not enough tomove the needle on 10% deficit/GDP.
Best source I could find claimed total state and local spending is $1.3T. Add that to federal spending and we’re at 25%.
Okay, I guess we have 2-3 more years of debt growth to reach Greece’s 150% debt/gdp. We’d have to see a significant increase in spending or decline in GDP to get near their 50% of GDP is government spending.
PPT needs to bring out the super soaker hoses this afternoon.
“Wall Street slumps; Dow slides below 11,000″
Yeah, they don’t like those round numbers. As for me, wake me up at…Dow 10,000!
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2009/10/14/old-hat-dow-10000-a-history-in-headwear/
Anyone want to bet on another late-day rally that erases most of the losses?
I expect at least enough to end up above 11k going into the weekend. Otherwise you have people thinking about Black Monday all weekend. Especially this weekend.
Not quite. Closed at 10,992.13. S&P is 1,154.23. And Nasdaq is at 2,467.99.
What was the all time top of the Nasdaq? 5000 and something. I just don’t remember 5000 and what.
What was the all time top of the Nasdaq? 5000 and something. I just don’t remember 5000 and what.
NASDAQ had all-time high of 5,048 in March 2000. It’s now more than 50% below that figure. So much for investing (in the stock market) for the long term.
Fascinating overview on the current Keynesian / anti-Keynesian debate, plus where it’s heading by Niall Ferguson:
[The entire Keynes/anti-Keynes debate high points listed]
…
When Franklin Roosevelt became president in 1933, the deficit was already running at 4.7 per cent of GDP. It rose to a peak of 5.6 per cent in 1934. The federal debt burden rose only slightly – from 40 to 45 per cent of GDP – prior to the outbreak of the second world war. It was the war that saw the US (and all the other combatants) embark on fiscal expansions of the sort we have seen since 2007. So what we are witnessing today has less to do with the 1930s than with the 1940s: it is world war finance without the war.
….
Are there precedents for such a combination? Certainly. Long before Keynes was even born, weak governments in countries from Argentina to Venezuela used to experiment with large peace-time deficits to see if there were ways of avoiding hard choices. The experiments invariably ended in one of two ways. Either the foreign lenders got fleeced through default, or the domestic lenders got fleeced through inflation. When economies were growing sluggishly, that could be slow in coming. But there invariably came a point when money creation by the central bank triggered an upsurge in inflationary expectations.
http://www.niallferguson.com/site/FERG/Templates/ArticleItem.aspx?pageid=233
The remedy for such fears must be the kind of policy regime-change Prof Sargent identified 30 years ago, and which the Thatcher and Reagan governments successfully implemented. Then, as today, the choice was not between stimulus and austerity. It was between policies that boost private-sector confidence and those that kill it.
That one knocked me off my chair laughing. See Zfacts.com for Reagan’s contribution to our national debt. He used the credit card to dress up the house. This paragraph really says almost nothing, confidence comes when people see money coming in. ie F’n jobs for small business and employees. That’s what these guys just don’t get.
Yep… “fixing” the economy was a lot easier when we were at post-Civil-War low total debt/GDP than at record high total debt/GDP like when Obama took office.
I’m really beginning to think I’d like to see Republicnas take over all 3 houses of government.
Only after both parties have had a try at fixing the economy, and both only made things worse, will we look to new ideas about the nature of our economic situation.
I only hope we don’t go “1930s Germany” in our desperation.
“I only hope we don’t go “1930s Germany” in our desperation.”
A very real possibility in a country where being a military grunt/cannon fodder is considered a “career choice”.
I’m really beginning to think I’d like to see Republicnas take over all 3 houses of government.
Didn’t they get their chance fairly recently? In 1994 that argument made sense because they hadn’t had full control in a long time. Today I no longer wish for that thanks to their choices for what to spend their efforts on when they had the chance. The best combo so far seems to be when you get a D executive and R for everything else and they try to compete on who can out-frugal the other.
But there was still plenty of room for debt to grow when they took over in 2002. They got the temporary “prosparity” of the housing bubble that again made it look as if their borrow and spend polices of ever increasing debt was win!
I’d like to see them win now, with private sector debt maxxed out, on the verge of total collapse.. globally, not just domestically. Then watch them actually slash spending and cut taxes and push hard toward a balanced budget without first ending free trade and returning to a 1950s style tax code to reverse trade imbalances… then watch what happens.
We need to dispell this false belief that it was Reagan tax policy, and not banking deregulation and debt increasing at 3x the sustainable rate, that gave us the economic growth of the last 30 years.
I don’t believe they’d slash spending. Once they’re in charge priorities change. We need to dispel this false belief that they would slash spending.
“The best combo so far seems to be when you get a D executive and R for everything else and they try to compete on who can out-frugal the other.”
Maybe I don’t remember the 90s, but my recollection was that, other than a few squabbles, that did seem to work pretty well.
But when the stated purpose of today’s Rs is to “make him a one-term President,” followed by a seeming reluctance to admit he even exists, the notion that we can have that level of discourse is obsolete.
Then again, he’s not done much to garner the continued support of those who took a chance on him the way that Clinton did. Not many people have his back these days.
But when the stated purpose of today’s Rs is to “make him a one-term President,” followed by a seeming reluctance to admit he even exists, the notion that we can have that level of discourse is obsolete.
Believe me they’d have been happy to pretend Clinton didn’t exist as well. He didn’t give them the option.
“I only hope we don’t go “1930s Germany” in our desperation.”
It’ll be oatmeal and potatoes 3 x daily for the little people while the U.S. printing press doles out the billion$ for Israel’s war against the rest of the world.
If Israel laid down its arms, it would be destroyed very quickly.
If the factions throughout the Middle East that find Israel a convenient scapegoat for their populations, laid down their arms, there would be peace.
Agreed, but it’s on the other side of the planet like Somalia; not our problem without lobbying money.
Ferguson needs to explain why interest rates are at rock bottom lows. In 2009 and 2010 he was saying they were going to rise. Well those that followed his advice and shorted treasuries lost big time.
I’m all for following his plan however because I’m well positioned for a deflationary spiral.
Rates are low b/c the central banks buy some/most the PIIGS/US treasuries. The amount of paper wealth far exceeds the real wealth. A lot of that paper wealth is at extreme risk, like MBS, Greek treasuries, etc. Even CDS carry a certain counterparty risk. Will AIG get another $150 billion bailout any time soon to nake holders of CDS whole? So fear of currency and paper wealth devaluation drives money out of paper wealth into hard assets. There is an undeniable uptick in prices for collectibles on Ebay. I am into coins and prices for nice pieces have doubled over the last 3 years.
1. PIIGS interest rates are not low.
2. Low US treasury rates are not explained by FED purchases. They can lower them a little but they are at record lows. Certainly China is playing a roll although I don’t think their holdings have increased rapidly (some suggest they are using hedge funds as cover to continue buying), but a big mover is flight to safety. The US is still viewed as safer than well most of the rest of the world. The US dollar is climbing lately as well. I suspect many are avoiding WS investments concerned about theft as well.
Guys like Ferguson keep talking about bond vigilantes, well they are no where to be found at the moment.
Since mid-2008 foreign purchases of Treasury securities have been under 50% of securities auctioned, and the Chinese have bought less than 10% of the amount auctioned. Even though foreigners have almost doubled their buying of Treasuries in the last few years, they have not kept pace with growing Treasury issuance over the same period. As a result, foreign purchases now account for less than half of what has been issued since mid-2008. Domestic purchasers of Treasuries are now buying more than half of the amount auctioned.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/who-is-buying-u-s-treasuries/
This is actually an interesting read, I would have thought banks were purchasing a lot of treasuries since 08 with borrowed money from the FED. It may be that they are lending it to Hedge Funds who are then purchasing treasuries. In the later case it suggests Hedge Funds are not acting like bond vigilantes.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44452871
“If you’re bankrupt, go bankrupt, reorganize,” Rogers said. “Countries have been going bankrupt for centuries, there’s nothing new about it.”
Easy to say when you don’t hold any Greek debt. I wonder if he feels the same about the USA going bankrupt, enforcing a massive haircut on anyone holding US Treasuries, wiping out the US banking sector.
UPDATE 3-Canada surprises with job losses in August
OTTAWA, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Canada’s economy unexpectedly lost jobs in August, overshadowing other signs the economy was making a comeback after a bleak second quarter and keeping central bank rate hikes off the table.
The Canadian dollar weakened after Statistics Canada said on Friday that the economy lost 5,500 jobs in August, and the jobless rate rose to 7.3 percent from 7.2 percent.
The net job losses were far worse than the median market forecast of a gain of 25,000 and matched only the most bearish estimate in a Reuters survey of 23 analysts. [ECI/CA]
Hmm…looks like the CA$50 I have in my vacation wallet might turn out to be a loser this year. Not going to worry too much. I only have it because I discovered that the public transportation was so good in Vancouver that I didn’t need to take a cab to the airport.
“Canada surprises with job losses in August”
Hosers!
The world is coming to an end the NY Times has a positive article on Palin:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/10/us/10iht-currents10.html?_r=4&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1315569719-RpR5AuX40tZqZl8xOiUg7g
I saw that. I’ve been saying for years that she has more of a chance than people think. And the people who hate her to the point of irrationality will actually drive some voters toward her. If you’re one of those people that never ever wants her to get elected to anything at a national level, it will probably pay to think before you attack. And understanding those most likely to swing to her and put her over the top at more than a superficial level would probably be very helpful.
Her base may be everything you think and fear it is, but the person who would put her over the top you probably don’t understand as well as you think you do.
I agree. I have been one of her few defenders on this board because I suspected that her real views were similar to what she expressed in that speech and thus consistent with my own views. However, I was not sure so my defense of her has been tepid. If you watch both MSNBC and Fox and I do it is amazing the hatred for her. Of course, both stations are very much reflecting the views of the political class. Yes, there is a right wing and left wing of the political class, mainly on social issues but they both seem to support the crony capitalism system that has developed. Also, as we saw with the Bush family out of office they don’t seem very conservative on the social issues either.
We don’t hate her. We just believe that she is totally unqualified to be President, by any metric you choose to use.
Let’s just compare resumes to, oh, let’s just say Eisenhower:
Eisenhower:
West Point Grad, 1915…..”The class the stars fell on”
November 1942….Supreme Commander, AEF-North Africa
February 1944 …..Supreme Commander, Allied Expeditionary Force……command of forces landing in Europe, liberating Western Europe, and invading Nazi Germany
May 1945…..Military Governor, US Occupation Zone, Germany
November 1945….US ARMY Chief of Staff
1948……President of Columbia University, wrote “Crusade in Europe”
Advisor to Secretary of Defence on armed forces unification
compared to Sarah Palin:
1982-87……student, various universities
1984…..won “Miss Wasilla” beauty pageant, followed up with a Third place win in the Miss Alaska pageant
1987….University of Idaho, Bachelors in Communications
1992…..Wasilla City Council
1996…..Mayor of Wasilla
2006-2008…..Governor of Alaska
And this is the best we can do……..
She’s not the only politician who compares poorly with Eisenhower. Yet most get far more respect than her.
I have no plans of trying to help her get elected, and hope that someone better is nominated by the Rs (as well as all other parties). But I stand by my statement above. While you may not personally hate her it would seem that many do. And those people will drive votes toward her in the end if she runs.
“I’m voting for her because liberals hate her…..”
“Liberals” (which lately seem to mean anyone to the left of Barry Goldwater) hate David Dukes, too. Guess it’s a good thing he’s not a candidate.
That’s Republican talking points. The only thing people “hate” is that people seriously believe she is a qualified candidate to be president. She’s a sock puppet.
Obama was only marginally more qualified. People who voted for him hoped that he’d bring in new blood/new ideas, and put some banksters in jail; instead he loaded up on Clinton retreads, and continued the bankster bailouts.
I’m writing in “Bologna Sandwich” in 2012.
When Greece does default, it will be a weekend affair, so as not to spook the markets totally. Also to give the planners a little time to try and lessen it’s impact.
BTW DOW 7000 is my call over the next year or so. Lots of stinky stuff needs to be flushed out.
I’ve been assuming for years now that the lows of 08/09 would get tested at least once. So far I’ve been wrong. But that’s been my call, too.
It’s hard to say what happens in the stock market (S&P or the Dow). The European banking system is the global wildcard. However, corporate America was caught offguard with Lehman, without strong enough balance sheets, too much short term debt, etc. For the past couple of years, there has been a lot of corporate deleveraging, debt restructuring (extending maturities), equity raising, etc.
A fair number of companies in the S&P 500 were at real risk of going bankrupt due to their debt loads, and lack of liquidity in the markets in 2009, which contributed to the stock market falling as much as it did. Financial calamity will not have the same impact on those companies again. It certainly won’t be pretty, but it won’t be the same.
No one’s crystal ball is very good, and It’s easy to be off by 20%+ on bottom calls…Roubini was calling for the potential of Dow 5,000 and S&P 500 in March of 2009, when the Dow was at 6,500, S&P at 660 and markets generally looking very weak, with, all sorts of doomish prognostications (>10% unemployment, 36 months recession, etc.). That happened to pretty much mark the exact bottom.
Do we hit Dow 6,500? Maybe, but we could just as easily only hit Dow 10,000…if my crystal ball was any good, I’d be retired…
Looks like the PPT headed over to the Martini bar before the close. Have to sit below 11,000 for the weekend. There will be plenty of steaming BS on the air waves this weekend about how everything is “under control”.
A very OT question, but hey, this is the Bits Bucket: I’m about to ship a book to Canada. I know that U.S. Media Mail probably won’t cut the mustard, so how about U.S. First Class? Or should I try one of the private shippers like Fedex?
I don’t think you can use media mail for international. USPS has info here:
https://www.usps.com/send/service-chart.htm
Click on the international tab and find the size/service you need. It is pricey. And there are calculators to help. Sometimes you want to do it by weight. Sometimes you want the flat rate boxes.
U.S. First Class? ”
has a weight limit under a Lb for sure
Me again. Looks like this is an oft-asked question on eBay.
From the WSJ:
The Labor Department is investigating pay practices at many of the top companies in home building, hitting them with a broad demand for records that has led to complaints of regulatory overreach.
Recipients of the letters include PulteGroup Inc.,Lennar Corp., D.R. Horton Inc. and KB Home, according to people familiar with the matter. A Labor Department spokeswoman confirmed the investigation but declined to discuss details.
A copy of one letter, dated Aug. 1 and reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, said the department was opening a probe under the Fair Labor Standards Act, which governs matters such as overtime pay and limits on using teen workers.
The letter instructed the home builder to immediately turn over the names, addresses, Social Security numbers, pay rates and hours worked for all employees over the past two years. It asked the names of all contractors hired in the past year. The letter didn’t allege any specific violations of law.
The Labor Department initiative comes at a time when the Obama administration appears to be recalibrating its policy on regulation, partly in response to criticism from Republicans and business leaders. In some instances, the administration has pulled back, in particular by abandoning proposed smog rules by the Environmental Protection Agency last week.
But it is moving ahead with other rules that irk businesses, such as those that put in place the financial-regulation law passed last year. And last week’s Justice Department suit to block AT&T Inc.’s acquisition of T-Mobile USA signaled beefed-up antitrust enforcement.
The Labor Department spokeswoman said the agency is committed to enforcing existing law, and investigations are one way to do so.
Many larger home builders, while acquiring land for homes and marketing them, entrust much of the construction to carpenters, electricians and others employed by contractors. The contractors rarely are unionized.
Unions have for years complained about pay and working conditions in the industry, alleging pay scales below minimum wage and failure to pay overtime. The Laborers International Union of North America in 2008 issued a study that called employees at home builders the “newest victims” of the housing market crisis because of “underpayment.”
Unions have pressured companies such as Pulte to make improvements, including by filing lawsuits. Unions also say that the bigger home builders have an obligation to make sure their contractors are following labor laws.
Ken Gear, a spokesman for the Leading Builders of America, an industry trade group, said several of its members received information requests from the Labor Department, which the trade group considers “overbroad, asking for information that does not relate to employees of its members,” he said. Saying the requests could require thousands of hours of work, Mr. Gear added that the inquiry “is especially troubling given that no issues have been identified to warrant an investigation.”
Jerry Howard, chief executive of the National Association of Homebuilders, another trade group, said the use of independent contractors and subcontractors is “the lifeblood of the industry for all home builders.” He called the requests from the Labor Department “the continuation of a pattern of regulatory intrusion by this presidential administration,” adding that “it couldn’t come at a worse time.”
Margot Veranes, a researcher for the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades, which has a collaboration with the AFL-CIO to improve standards in the home-building industry, said home builders need to stop pressuring subcontractors to “go cheaper” on costs. “It’s pretty clear that there’s an enormous pressure to rush to the bottom in terms of keeping costs down,” she said.
Among the builders, a spokesman for Pulte, based in Bloomfield Hills, Mich., confirmed receipt of a Labor Department letter and said Pulte was working to better understand the request. Miami-based Lennar declined to comment. D.R. Horton, based in Fort Worth, Texas, didn’t respond to requests for comment. KB Home, of Los Angeles, referred questions to an industry group.
Some industry officials said they thought the Labor Department might be trying to establish that a general construction contractor, such as a large home builder, is a “joint employer” of a subcontractor. That would make the general contractor liable for wage-and-hour violations at its subcontractor.
“There has been a movement afoot in many instances fueled by the unions to force the subcontractors to be employees of the builders, because the next step is to unionize them,” said Mr. Howard of the National Association of Homebuilders.
Industry lawyers say there are some laws that make general contractors responsible for unpaid wages of subcontractors, such as a law in Nevada. But generally, they said, the law separates the liability of the two parties.
To determine the general contractor’s possible liability for subcontractor labor violations, courts may look at factors such as whether the general contractor had authority to hire or fire employees, kept control over work schedules or maintained employee records.
——————
Labor costs to build new homes just went up…
A former neighbor’s father was a union carpenter. My neighbor took great pride in reminding us of this fact.
Reason: His dad was a very good carpenter. According to his son (my neighbor), his dad was never out of work.
Despite the fact that unions and their members are often disparaged here and in other places, the trade unions did (and still do) have standards relating to the quality of work done by their members. It’s not that easy to get a union card with them.
So count me as one who isn’t that interested in the current union-bashing trend.
I’m not bashing unions. My cousin is a union plumber, another cousin lays tile (formerly union, not sure if he still is)…they are both very good at what they do.
That said, there is non-union labor that is also very good at what they do, but they are not as expensive.
The above article notes:
1. Unions are pushing for builders to follow labor laws;
2. The US Government is investigating allegations of breaking those labor laws;
3. The result will be builders following labor laws with more regularity.
Regardless of whether builders use more or less union labor, they will be paying more in overtime, hiring fewer underage workers (ie. those with lower salary demands–when I was in high school, I swung a hammer for a summer working on a home renovation; I definitely didn’t get union wages), which make unions more competitive given quality/cost considerations and will have two major effects:
1. higher labor cost at every quality level (more adherence to overtime laws);
2. higher quality on average (more experienced workers, and potentially more union involvement).
Mind you, I’m not saying that breaking the law is right, or should be ignored, but there has been lots of discussion on this board about how inexpensively homes can be built. This particular action will tend to increase the costs to build.
You may get a better product, but it will be more expensive.
Yes, I do make things, son…
http://tinyurl.com/3rbmayy
What a crock….union construction workers
what about the rest of America who are NOT union???
We have to suffer everyday when a big for profit company will hire you as no pay interns even if you work on profit making items
I would love to nail the big OH on this one….i’ve never seen so many companies ignore labor laws
“Labor costs to build new homes just went up…”
And all that means is a lower profit margin.
AIPAC Congressional Lobbying Junkets to Israel Illegal Charges IRS and DOJ Filing
http://tinyurl.com/4yvxrcw (Marketwatch.com)
NOTE: Comments have been disabled.
WASHINGTON, Sept. 9, 2011 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ — A complaint filed today with the IRS and Justice Department charges the American Israel Education Foundation (AIEF) is a “sham” charitable organization of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. The AIEF, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit corporation which reported $26.3 million in 2009 revenue, is housed in the same facilities as AIPAC. AIPAC was incorporated as a domestic lobby in 1963 by a former Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs employee, six weeks after the Justice Department ordered its parent organization, the American Zionist Council, to begin registering as an Israeli foreign agent.
AIEF recently paid expenses for more than 80 members of Congress to travel to Israel during recess, but does not disclose planned activities or educational curriculum. Rabbi Bruce Warshal called AIEF “an amazing organization of which no one has ever heard…It’s amazing that someone hasn’t filed suit to stop this charade.”
According to the 29 page IRmep Center for Policy and Law Enforcement filing, AIEF meets the IRS definition of an AIPAC “sham corporation” because:
AIEF is completely controlled by AIPAC, 66% of AIEF board members are AIPAC directors. 47% of AIPAC’s board are also AIEF directors;
AIEF lacks sufficient staff. According to IRS and Congressional Research Service benchmarks, a bona fide educational organization would have at least 271 employees. AIEF has none;
AIEF’s “educational” content and audiences are determined by AIPAC lobbying objectives. AIEF has no website. No AIEF funded material is made directly available to the public;
AIEF files deceptive IRS Form 990 reports. Although AIEF has multiple foundation donors such as the Saban Family Foundation ($1 million), The Harry and Jeanette Weinberg Foundation, Inc. ($150,000) and The Marcus Foundation, Inc. ($500,000), it does not properly and individually report such large donors and amounts on its publicly auditable Schedule B. This deceptive practice was pioneered by AIPAC to hide the narrowing funding base of both organizations.
AIEF makes improper transfers of tax-deductible funds to AIPAC. In 2009, AIEF transferred $13.5 million in tax deductible funding to AIPAC;
AIEF Near East Research merger. Founded in 1957, the Near East Report laundered overseas funding to AIPAC’s founder to publish disinformation about Israeli nuclear weapons and US peace initiatives.
Another fraud by the Israeli govt.
have not posted here in a LONG time, but the power failure inspired me….a Prius makes an excellent generator in a pinch, can connect an $70 Costco inverter to the start battery and draw 1000W with automatic recharging if the car is left on, or for considerably more money and effort can wire a 3000W inverter to the high voltage batteries….in either case if the car is on it will monitor the batteries and run the engine to recharge them as needed with very little noise or emissions and shut down when charging is completed
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/23/prius-its-not-just-a-car-its-an-emergency-generator/
I saw that, it looks like the only downside is that it will run occasionally even if it doesn’t need to because the software wants to keep the engine warmed up when it’s “on”. I am hoping that eventually somebody sells a plug in hybrid with 220v charger system designed to disconnect the house from the grid during an outage and power the house with the car until grid power comes back. We’re oh so close…