Bits Bucket for September 22, 2011
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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Realtors Are Liars®
Congrats on the pole!
How about some analysis and educated guesses: Since the MERS court decision appears to have loosened the logjam on foreclosure processing and B of A seems to be REALLY hurting for solvency, errr- cash, it appears that they are jumping ahead of the pack. Given the limited number of qualified buyers, shadow inventory moving into the pipeline and the wild-card of what the government might attempt, who wants to hazard an opinion on what the time frame and additional devaluation in housing might be for the next leg down? Could B of A’s aggressive processing cause other banks to do the same? After all, with a finite supply of borrowers, whever gets their house offerings out there first will be more likely to sell and after the sale that buyer will no longer be in the market. Will foreclosures be a tsunami or a steady increase in the tide? Understanding that it will be regional and that it CAN go to zero, what are the bets that housing values decrease another 10%? 20? Over what time horizon?
“… what are the bets that housing values decrease another 10%? 20? Over what time horizon.”
IMHO the decline is already a done deal, but the time horizon is the Great Unknown because the time horizon is subject to meddling.
Whatever meddling that comes to pass won’t change the trend - which is down - but will only change the rate of decline.
OK, if this is going to be our HBB office pool on the outcome of the third inning:
I pick 30% from where we are now in “the next leg down”.
That won’t be the end of the cascade, but we are only talking about this inning, right?
I’ll take the three year square.
Blue, are you talking nationwide? Areas where the jobs are? Areas where the jobs aren’t? Good houses or trashed houses?
I’m taking the Case Schiller National. If DC holds up, it will be by shifting more pain elsewhere. If some other jobs bonanza location surfaces, I will be happy to lose my dollar.
Excellent point, oxide. When the turd hits the fan, the fallout is not evenly distributed.
Marginal areas that were excessively overbuilt will take a disproportionately hard hit, notably exurbs.
Housing is not a homogenous commodity.
I would argue that the biofuel has already hit the wind turbine in most areas. For example, a friend’s house in Tucson is now Zestimated at the same value as when it was built in the late 90’s. Further price drops will be due to the pendulum overshoot, which is difficult to time correctly.
It will come down to fundamentals, same as the stock market. In areas on unstable footing (Vegas, Detroit), we’ll see more $1 houses. In areas on stable footing (DC), I don’t think the pendulum will ever swing down past the 2001 pricing line, unless you get really lucky with a trashed foreclosure.
(Vegas, Detroit), we’ll see more $1 houses ??
Well, I will pass on Detroit but for $1. each I will buy all the houses you can muster in Las Vegas…
It will be no surprise to most, but I fall on the side of fewer price reductions from here in most areas.
LPS came out with their “first look” a few days ago: Delinquency rates are down…again.
Banks are finally starting to push foreclosures through the system (articles recently of spike in default notices in August, especially in the West).
There are more articles about investors buying for cash, fixing, and RENTING out homes. The yields are there (7%+ after all expenses in dense areas, and a fair bit higher if you go farther out). At these prices/rents, it is cheaper to own than rent, even if you push mortgage rates up to 6% or 7% (a circumstance that is pretty rare if you have a sense of history). Most homes that are purchased in this manner are full of people when purchased (ie. there are not massive numbers of completely empty homes lying around).
Rental vacancies are falling.
Of course, my experience is in Western markets (primarily CA), but from where I sit, we have hit a point where not only prices are justified based on rents achieved, but vacancies are sufficiently low as to fill the rentals relatively quickly.
I just don’t see there being any justification for another 30% fall based on rent, vacancies, demand for a place to live, and slowing delinquencies (source of new foreclosures).
That said, in the near term (6-12 months), I wouldn’t be surprised if there IS a fall in home prices based on some of the backlog being flushed through. I don’t think that will be a long term trend, but a relatively short term effect of the cash buyers being overwhelmed with product that was previously being hung up in neverland while banks got their act together.
For example, a friend’s house in Tucson is now Zestimated at the same value as when it was built in the late 90’s. Further price drops will be due to the pendulum overshoot, which is difficult to time correctly.
That’s not just your friend’s house, oxide. There are a lot of local houses that have already lost all of their bubble value.
Plus, in the University of Arizona area, there were a lot of houses purchased as investments. The idea was that the owners would rent to students for a few years, then, through the magic of appreciation, they would sell for much more than the purchase price.
Well, long story short: A lot of those people learned how badly students behave and how abusive they are to rental houses. Which means that those houses now need a lot of repairs, which the owners can’t afford. So, they’re stuck with a house that’s just weighing them down.
To make matters worse, there’s now a glut of UA area properties for rent. We’re wrapping up the fifth week of the fall semester, and I’m amazed at the places that are still empty. Some of them are very nice.
In short, I see a lot of turbulence ahead. Fasten those seat belts, Tucson housing market.
Dont forget the layoffs in CA. The state is having to make some serious cuts, that will lead to more foreclosures, more people moving out of CA and more pain. A lot of the small towns are based on civil service jobs.
I’ll settle for 30% down over three years in San Diego overall — local price declines will vary.
I can’t see another overall 30% down in, say, Detroit, except perhaps for high-end areas which everyone is currently assuming are immune from further declines due to the top-1%ers sparking bid wars for homes in super-rich enclaves. But after the top-1%ers’ stock market holdings get taken to the cleaners with no further Quantitative Easing or other Fed-funded bailouts to rescue them this time, I’m expecting “larger than expected” declines in high-end housing.
In DC, I’ll settle for average 20% drop from wishing prices over two years. High end could drop 30% i exurbs. Some close-in stuff may not drop at all. Depends a great deal on the housing quality and location.
But in this area, it’s not so much about price. I need to balance monthly rent with house prices with interest rates with how trashed the house is.
“…with how trashed the house is.”
Don’t buy until the market is so glutted with foreclosure homes of all descriptions that you don’t have to settle for trash, or if you do, you can insist on a price which reflects the costs of trash cleanup.
^^^This^^^ +100
Is B of A only selling through Realturds? Remember back during the last crash, all those stories of people paying $10k for something direct to the bank.
South Central CA, here, and I’m going all out and betting 8 years (2020) and an overall one-zero-off-the-price-of-everything decline before we start to see an upward trend in Greater Bakersplat/Fresno/Modesto real estate again.
As for the “suburbs” where I live, there IS no market (nothing sold in over 15 months,) and zillow has my entire spread and all structures thereupon listed for less than what it cost to put in the infrastructure in 1993. (This is WONDERFUL, as that’s my tax base.)
As I mentioned recently, banks are paying a 10% commission on top of the 6% seller’s commission for any REO the real litter can move, but surprise, nothing’s moving except the illegal labor. Out.
And as Paso Robles gets cheaper, Fresno falls even more.
“…but surprise, nothing’s moving except the illegal labor. Out.”
Meaning the illegal labor is moving out? Or, are you saying “out” like “peace out?”
“OK, if this is going to be our HBB office pool on the outcome of the third inning:”
We’re 5 to 6 years into this now and are still only in the third inning? I’m not necessarily disagreeing, just noting. I don’t think even the most pessimistic had 15-20 years to reach something close to a bottom. Projections of still being near a bottom in 15 to 20 years weren’t so scarce. That projection looks a lot safer now given the lack of progress in transforming the economy.
Like others have said (I will not put words in someone’s mouth though) you have to understand how we got here to have a clue about how we get out.
Decades in the making is my take overall. Think JFK at least. Round the bend with Reagan. Over the steeple with Bush. All the same track though.
I think it is the third inning. Big panic followed by herculean efforts to get things going again. Next leg down is third act. The show is not near climax, nowhere near. Other takes?
I would call this the end of the third inning, yes, but those inning were full of foul balls, baserunners faking attempts to steal second base and running back to first, lots of swinging and tobacco spitting and tapping on the part of the batters, lots of winks and nods between pitcher and catcher, and quite a few walks (bank CEO’s and paid-off academes.) You’d get your occasional strikeout (Mozilo), your occasional almost-long ball caught on the track (Madoff), your occasional hit (folks who sold at peak) which didn’t really matter because they were left on base, cheerleader antics (Learah and Zandi), goof-ball dancing mascots (Geithner) and your occasional guy from the bleachers who tries to streak on the field (Casey Serin). In other words, lots of crap but not a lot of actual baseball.
This was great for the Wall Steet folks because they made lots of money on concessions while the sheeple waited for action… until the Bernake truck ran out of beer.
I think the next six innings are going to go MUCH faster.
I considered the 2 stimulus plans and shots of QE to be a multiple delays of game.
I consider the “game” to be the global credit bubble deleveraging.
I would call this the end of the third inning, yes, but those inning were full of foul balls, baserunners faking attempts to steal second base and running back to first, lots of swinging and tobacco spitting and tapping on the part of the batters, lots of winks and nods between pitcher and catcher, and quite a few walks (bank CEO’s and paid-off academes.) You’d get your occasional strikeout (Mozilo), your occasional almost-long ball caught on the track (Madoff), your occasional hit (folks who sold at peak) which didn’t really matter because they were left on base, cheerleader antics (Learah and Zandi), goof-ball dancing mascots (Geithner) and your occasional guy from the bleachers who tries to streak on the field (Casey Serin). In other words, lots of crap but not a lot of actual baseball.
Hear hear.
I think the next six innings are going to go MUCH faster.
I hope so. But I’ve stopped planning on it.
I think the next six innings are going to go MUCH faster.
a lot faster
that’s what I think
As I recall Japanese prices dropped for 2 decades. I’d say 3rd inning is about right.
Not to be gloomy, but wasn’t that while the rest of the entire frikin world was in full growth mode?
“… I don’t think even the most pessimistic had 15-20 years to reach something close to a bottom….”
(Raises hand)
2
Interesting thought, that extend and pretend is finally running out of steam because B of A is running out of cash. It did, for a time, seem like the game could go on forever regardless of the broader consequences.
Hopefully B of A is capitulating and will trigger the others to do the same.
“Interesting thought, that extend and pretend is finally running out of steam because B of A is running out of cash.”
Things have a way of going on much, much longer than they should. Just look up especially here in CA ‘Down payment Assistance Programs’. RE types here are quoting $50K with forbearance after 5-15 yrs. They say ‘free money’. Yes, once again it’s for the strawberry picker types but it’s helping to move property and keep housing cost elevated. We need a big time event to put the kibosh on this crap.
CA needs to start a class action movement to end the RE ruling class and their free 6% for doing nothing.
How do they come up with the “free 6%”?
California ReaItors seem the most corrupt, criminal of all reaItors.
“Interesting thought, that extend and pretend is finally running out of steam because B of A is running out of cash.”
I don’t think that is what is really going on here.
If BofA were really running out of cash, the LAST thing they would want to do is realize the hidden losses on their books. They would want to carry them at mark-to-fantasy. Realizing the losses would shoot a big hole in their balance sheet.
I think they must have enough cash to realize some losses, and are trying to do so before other banks. That is far different from capitulation.
“I think they must have enough cash to realize some losses, and are trying to do so before other banks.”
$5bn from Uncle Warren
Interesting thought, that extend and pretend is finally running out of steam because B of A is running out of cash
A few weeks ago, I read that BAC’s market cap was less than half of its book value. Anyone know where the market cap/book value ratio is now?
“…it appears that they are jumping ahead of the pack.”
If you are right, this is a great sign that prices may be finally headed for a true bottom. A race to the exits is a great way to overcome official measures intended to prop up prices indefinitely.
It looks like it to me, from what I can read/see/fathom:
B of A swallowed Countrywide, the proverbial poison-pill, so they have more poorly performing loans/inventory.
In mid-April the MERS lawsuits were essentially decided and banks were given 120 days to formulate and execute foreclosure plans (mid-August) which then gets reported in mid-September with headlines like; “August forclosure starts leap 33%, B of A forclosure starts jump 116%”
In the last 45 days or so you saw headlines like;
‘B of A to sell off non-core business units’
‘B of A to axe 30,000 jobs’
‘Warren Buffet invests $5 billion in B of A’ (Ol’ Warren got ‘em by the short hairs)
‘B of A axes 13 investment bankers’
It looks to me like B of A has no choice but to accelerate foreclosures and this MIGHT start a rush for the exits. Nothing makes people panic like panic…
+1 Very interesting~!
It looked to me like B of A is shrinking so that it will no longer be too big to fail.
Poor over built areas will continue to fall Phoeinx, las vegas, etc.
Fall alot more -25% next 10 years
wealthy areas RE may start to rise DC, Silicon valley , costal CA
flat to up over the next 10 years
the rich get richer and the poor get poorer trend has been this way for some time now.
my guess
Look…
It’s always the high priced areas to feel the pain last. So far they haven’t so the largest price declines in higher priced areas are in front us, NOT behind us. This will will completely collapse the price structure under the high priced areas.
Third inning? Try first or second. Remember, demand is still falling and 70 million boomers have one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel. 5000/day are dying.
Remember, demand is still falling and 70 million boomers have one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel. 5000/day are dying.
Anecdotal observation: Last month, I was at a 1970s nostalgia concert here in Tucson. (If you want my not-so-humble opinion, the CSNY cover band, Five Way Street, burned down the house. Not to mention A Son y Sol’s Latino takes on John Lennon’s songs. Nice new spin on some classic tunes like “Imagine.”)
But I digress. Again.
I couldn’t help thinking that a lot of the people there had eaten their way through the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Sorry to say this, but there were some real porkers in attendance.
And they’re right at the age where obesity-related health issues are going to be taking them down.
After all, with a finite supply of borrowers, whoever gets their house offerings out there first will be more likely to sell and after the sale that buyer will no longer be in the market. Will foreclosures be a tsunami or a steady increase in the tide?
Given the statement about the finite supply of borrowers, combined with the banks’ needs to minimize additional damage to their already fragile balance sheets, my money’s on a steady increase in the tide.
But keep in mind that tidal increases beyond what is normally expected have been known to swamp coastal areas.
I don’t think any market movement is tied to fundamentals anymore so for all we know the markets will probably end up big for the day. But so far it’s looking like Europe’s having a hissy fit because it didn’t get QEIII from Ben. Or was there another announcement I’ve missed?
8:00 am EDT
Russia -6.73%
London -4.66%
Paris -4.82%
Frankfurt -4.25%
Italy -3.73%
The Fed annonced that it was going to decimate long term yields. The Fed announced that we are so screwed. The downgrades continue. No where to hide!
Why people are so negative about this is beyond me.
Operation Twist has been discussed pretty much all year by now. It’s not as though NOBODY COULD HAVE SEEN IT COMING.
Yes, but the market apparently expected more stimulus in the way of the creation of more money. I expect they will get it soon. Since neither in Europe nor the U.S. is there a real desire to cut back government to the level of taxes people are willing to pay, inflation and the hidden tax increases that provides is the only way. As long as people want $2 of government for every $1 of taxes we will have this problem. So we won’t raise the taxes on capital gains we will just create artificial gains by inflation and make people pay for non-existing gains. California is the poster child of trying to having a high level of services with low taxes (at least property) but in the end there are only two basic models possible high taxes/high services and low taxes/low services. However, only people like Ron Paul are willing to tell the truth on this.
More like it will have to be higher taxes and lower services.
with low taxes (at least property) ??
Yeah…Lets raise the property taxes through the roof along with everything else…We are taxed out the a$$ here…They just don’t call them taxes…They are called fee’s…
I agree scdave ,we have taxes and fees up the yang yang already .
They were just talking on the boob tube about the new homeless being regular people who first lost their job ,than their rental or house, and than they are out of cards .
When you get behind to that degree it takes a lot to come back up again .Not everybody has a family they can stay with . Trying to get a job from a homeless position is a real challenge .
Of course a certain Political group thinks Charity can take care of it. Hey you rich people ,want to donate about
5 trillion to the downtrodden …I didn’t think so .
The analysis I am reading is that the twist announcement was actually a little more than the markets were expecting. The collapse is because the Fed’s projections about the future were so darn gloomy. Now that used to cause markets to rally because it made them expect new announcements of interest rate cuts and easing. But with 3 fed governors voting against even teh little that they got, they know this won’t happen. Plus the government is going into austerity mode out of pure inability to do anything (Bush tax cuts will expire for everyone and the payroll cut will expire too without action; no new money for the states or infrstructure spending; if the supercommittee can’t come up with something that can pass Congress and get signed there will be massive cutbacks on military spending for contractors). Oh, and there is always the possibility of a partial government shutdown (at least this one won’t cut off SS checks for people already in the system) sometime in the fall.
Lots of reasons to be gloomy.
BB want’s Congress to do more of the heavy lifting. My guess is we have a game of chicken. See how low the stock market will go before politicians on both sides start talking about stimulus and jobs again.
It may be the party line that it beat expectations but really, this collapse because the FED pointed out the obvious? I guess it is a bit unusual since they have been denying the obvious. Maybe they wanted to promote a stimulus bill but they have ended hurting the economy more than the stimulus would have helped it.
“See how low the stock market will go before politicians on both sides start talking about stimulus and jobs again.”
Meanwhile, I foresee great opportunities for dips to buy.
It isn’t so much a party line as a Goldman Sachs line. They said it was more than they expected.
Ezra Klein wrote a blog post this afternoon that basically said there was no reason. It happened because it happened (from the end of his post):
Which is not to say that the bad news begins and ends with central banks. There was some bad manufacturing data from the eurozone, and FedEx’s earnings were low, and there are some concerns about Chinese growth. But given the grim state of the world economy, none of that news is unusually bad. If you left every data point unchanged but the market hadn’t dived, you wouldn’t be seeing stories tomorrow wondering about the Dow’s unusual resilience.
Salmon’s headline is that “there’s no reason why stocks are down today,” and perhaps that’s right. Or perhaps it’s exactly wrong, and stocks are down today not because any one thing is so bad, but because everything is so bad, and when everyone is scared, sometimes people begin running without quite knowing why. Either way, there’s no really good reason that stocks are down today as opposed to some other day. The squiggly line squiggled down. That’s all there is to it.
Agreed Bkue skye:
Its over as of Today….OH and benakee have no clue …..You may have all ridiculed me for my $3000 credit card bailout, but they just wont try a bottoms up approach to this. Extend unemployment to the 99′ers and massively increase job training for quick full time courses that are under 6 months…
And make any kind of payment dependant on going to school or “interning” each day and passing. They ran out of job training funds here in Feb, now they may be starting to accept applications next week…..no actual money to train people yet.
Don’t you think people would jump at a chance to do this?
They’re not interested in forgiving debt. They want to charge you interest. They don’t want you to have a balance free card, they want to charge you 20% interest on money they borrow fom the FedRes and depositors for 1% or less.
And even if they did forgive the CC debt, people would just run them up again buying imported junk, so there wouldn’t be any real stimulus anyway.
There will be no Credit Card debt forgiveness. It isn’t going to happen. If you want to walk away from your debt, file for BK and face the consequences.
Well why do home debtors get off scott free until 2012?
And no i dont owe anywhere near enough to consider BK… just 2 credit cards which I used to pay off each year from all my Holiday and NYE parties…dj money. and even had money left over to put in my ira…..
times sure changed!
They aren’t getting off scott free. They are getting foreclosed and evicted, maybe after 2 or more years of non payment, but they are most definitely not having the debt forgiven and being allowed to keep the house.
If they are living in a non recourse state they are safe from owing anything more after the house is foreclosed, otherwise they might have to file for BK.
BUt understand that the CC biz is a cash cow for banks. There is no way in Hades that they will proactively forgive that debt a la jubilee. I ain’t gonna happen, and do you know why? Because they know that individuals value their CCs more than their own home and will make the CC payments before the mortgage payment.
In other words they know you won’t default if you can help it. So why forgive the debt?
Agreed Colorado. The plan is to borrow from the Fed at 0%, lend at 20% and make enough profit to recognize the real estate losses on their books. There is no way a credit card forgiveness program helps that out.
A-dan, those banks better hope that people don’t walk on their CC debt too (and why not, if their FICO is trashed). CC debt is unsecured.
What is REALLY scary is the student loan debt has surpassed CC debt in this country.
” Extend unemployment to the 99′ers and massively increase job training for quick full time courses that are under 6 months…”
In an ordinary cyclical downturn, getting more education while jobs are scare is often a good strategy. But this is not an ordinary downturn. There seems to little point in vocational training until there’s some sense of direction to the economy. We have millions more workers with adequate skills than we have jobs for them. Can we point to even one sector that could be expanding faster if only there were workers with adequate skills?
True, but its also for psychological reasons idleness leads to anger and depression….flash mobs???
Keeping people busy….i know that new agey self esteem…but with some cash in the pockets we may create lots of small time entrepenurs….opening the mind…and not just hard labor.
I dunno if we are going to blow another 500 billion maybe it should be on large numbers of Americans in America?????
They’ve paid lip service to “idleness” for years.
The only thing that might change that would be either riots, or a wholesale exodus of college/technically trained 20 somethings for greener pastures in the Far East/Canada/Brazil/Australia.
“or a wholesale exodus of college/technically trained 20 somethings for greener pastures in the Far East/Canada/Brazil/Australia”
That assumes that these countries would welcome them. They won’t, as they save their good paying jobs for their own.
Dual (or even multiple) citizenship is where it’s at. Then you can get in and not have to fight tooth and nail to get a visa to work there.
“Can we point to even one sector that could be expanding faster if only there were workers with adequate skills?”
Nursing –that’s all I can think of.
“True, but its also for psychological reasons idleness leads to anger and depression….flash mobs???”
“Keeping people busy….i know that new agey self esteem…but with some cash in the pockets we may create lots of small time entrepenurs….opening the mind…and not just hard labor.”
In the near term, I’d rather keep people occupied and productive with WPA 2.0. Just as with the original WPA, it doesn’t have to just be focused on infrastructure, but could keep people employed in a wide range of areas including the arts.
How engaged are people going to be with training that leads to nothing? Couldn’t that lead to more anger, not less? Training will eventually need to happen, but there appear to be better ways to keep people occupied now.
Well yes dJ, but nothing personal!
of course nothing personal…if any of you get to nyc i’ll buy you a beer…
of course nothing personal…if any of you get to nyc i’ll buy you a beer…
Careful there, buddy. I’m going to be changing planes at JFK in a few weeks. Even after a red-eye flight, I’d be interested in a beer.
and I live near laguardia airport ..how long is the change over?.
The quickest way to reduce unemployement is to reduce unemployment compensation. If you’re over the standard 26 weeks, the govt should hire people to clean parks, pick up trash, etc at $7 an hour. If they don’t want to do that, their true colors have shown.
Government is competing with private companies for workers.
Oh please. UE benefits are a fraction of the salaries they replace. Unless you live in your parent’s basement you can’t live off of them.
OK, so they pick up trash at minimum wage until….when? Until the better-paying jobs come back from India and China?
Moman is right.
The bottom line is these people need to be fed or you will have massive riots. I’d also rather they were made to work to keep them busy during the day and tired at night, idle hands do the devils work.
The benefit of course is that people get nicer parks and better roads and better infrastructure vs the type of bail out we’ve had so far.
Unemployment should be replaced with a long term job program. Maybe an initial 13-26 weeks to look for a job, afterwards to remain on the public roster you have to do 20 hours picking up trash, etc, and the other 20 either looking for a job or in some type of retraining program. My buddy who owns a restaurant is tired of “applicants” wasting his time who have no intention of working there but need the signature to keep getting unemployment benefits so they can keep up their Halo score on the Xbox. A relative enjoyed a 52 week govt sponsored vacation and started working magically for slightly over minimum wage doing help desk support on week 53.
I came darn close to living on my UE for a while in the last downturn. Please note this was only possible for the following reasons:
1) I lived on about half my income anyway.
2) For part of that time I was getting “free” outplacement assistance (paid for by my former employer) which took up a lot of time
3) My rent was pretty reasonable in a large one bedroom on a low floor
4) Judicious use of coupons and shopping the specials at two walkable grocery stores meant I could feed myself for little more than $25 a week. Sometimes less.
5) The income tax already withheld was enough to cover my taxes for the whole year if I had to live on just the salary already received plus UE, so I didn’t have to set anything aside for additional income tax.
6) I had electric heat which I turned off at night even if that meant wearing a hat to bed with three quilts and getting up to face 50-something degrees in the morning. When it was cold outside, my apartment was rarely warmer than 62.
Seriously, if COBRA hadn’t been so much, I might have been able to cover rent, utilities and food on just the UE. As it was the UE covered rent and COBRA. The rest came out of savings.
“If they don’t want to do that (work for $7/hr), their true colors have shown”
Yeah, it shows me that the kid is smart, or at least can do the math.
The only way a $7/hr job makes sense in Flyover, is when the Bank of Mom and Dad pays a 100% transportation subsidy. Basically, a direct subsidy to the restaurant and fast food industry.
My daughter worked a double shift a week or two ago, cleared all of $30 in tips (the MMA pay per view crowd doesn’t tip for $hit). She’d have been money ahead to stay home.
I agree, which is why the program needs a revamp. Anyone who can do math should realize that it’s better to sit at home and get $7/hr for free than to go work for $8/hr. I would do the same thing in that situation. That is what unemployment has become. But also, $8/hr > $0/hr.
“Government is competing with private companies for workers.”
Now THAT is the definition of delusional!
OK Moman….you got me riled up……
YOU go pick up garbage…..Id love to see you do it. You have to get with the program….you are too old to be thinking like that.
In the old days that was fine Employers understood you had to have a survival job when unemployed BUT NOT TODAY employers look down on a prospective hire who did that….no you find work even if its an Intern job that is directly related to your resume.
So instead of picking up the garbage you would make me work 25-30 hours at the city or college radio or tv station, or at the public defenders office as a paralegal….jobs that will make my resume look good.
And your buddy PAYS SQUAT no wonder they wont take the job…..or they get a sense he is a jerk…..
You have to understand the way UI works….if you take a job becuase you are desperate and the boss is a jerk moron or a pig and you get fired…..your UI stops until a hearing which could be 6 weeks or more…..so people are scared of winding up with an idiot employer..
I hope that helps you understand the dynamics here.
———–
Unemployment should be replaced with a long term job program. Maybe an initial 13-26 weeks to look for a job, afterwards to remain on the public roster you have to do 20 hours picking up trash, etc, and the other 20 either looking for a job or in some type of retraining program. My buddy who owns a restaurant is tired of “applicants” wasting his time who have no intention of working there but need the signature to keep getting unemployment benefit
Yikes. The log-jam has been broken…
—————————
Bank of America ups CA foreclosures by nearly 200 percent
SCPR | 21 Sept 2011 | Patt Morrison
Bank of America increased foreclosures by nearly 200 percent in California between July and August.
John Karevoll, an analyst with DataQuick told Patt Morrison that the bank is capitalizing on favorable laws in California and other states where a court order isn’t needed to repossess a home.
“This is the rip-the-band-aid-off policy here,” he said. “It’s basically just to go out there and plough through it and get rid of it.”
Dan Frahm, the senior vice president of Bank of America Home Loans, says the recent upswing in foreclosures is due to a massive backlog.
“Those foreclosures that have been on hold for quote some time are now moving through the process. 1.2 million of our customers are about 60 days delinquent or more, and of that population about 40 percent haven’t made a payment in about two years,” he said.
Brings to mind colonoscopy prep…
LOL….
“Brings to mind colonoscopy prep…”
Ready for a MoviPrep youtube clip?
Google Dave Barry and Colonoscopy and read his column on his experience. Laugh your @ss off because its so true!!
(This Dave Barry column was originally published Feb. 22, 2008.)
OK. You turned 50. You know you’re supposed to get a colonoscopy. But you haven’t. Here are your reasons:
1. You’ve been busy.
2. You don’t have a history of cancer in your family.
3. You haven’t noticed any problems.
4. You don’t want a doctor to stick a tube 17,000 feet up your butt.
Let’s examine these reasons one at a time. No, wait, let’s not. Because you and I both know that the only real reason is No. 4. This is natural. The idea of having another human, even a medical human, becoming deeply involved in what is technically known as your ”behindular zone” gives you the creeping willies.
Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2009/02/11/v-print/427603/dave-barry-a-journey-into-my-colon.html#ixzz1YhQOIOk9
I don’t know. I kinda enjoyed mine. Nothing like a day off with knockout drugs. Almost as much fun as a vasectomy.
That’s just the way I roll……..
The best part was making my 16 year old come to the clinic and pick me up
Of course,being forced to choke down a gallon of “Anal Drano” wasn’t anything to write home about.
“Anal Drano”
Definitely the worst part. Nothing like a self-induced case of the runs to start off your day…
Forget the Guantanamo “waterboarding”
Just serve them up a gallon of that stuff everyday. And make sure they have cheap toilet paper.
Oh, you had to remind me…. I’m 44 and have already had 3, with my next colonoscopy not due again until… next month.
How can it have been another 3 freakin’ years already.
“about 40 percent haven’t made a payment in about two years,” he said.”
Yeah, let’s throw them out by Xmas and start their new year right.
Don’t worry. Few are getting kicked out. Many of these houses are vacant. Some never occupied from the start. For others the “owners” have moved on to take jobs in other areas. It will be a nice Christmas gift for them if the bank finally takes the house back.
Here in Tucson, I’ve seen very few foreclosures where the owners were kicked out. If anything, they were bought as investments, and by the time the foreclosures happen, the tenants are long gone.
I wonder if this is affecting HBB-er Mike in Bend, who was waiting to be kicked out of his house.
Are banks still making money by borrowing from the Fed and lending to Treasury?
Thanks for thinking of me!
Actually it’s my wife’s house; our family home since 2007. BofA is selling 5 or less per day in our county, mostly back to itself; 60 trustee’s sales are oddly scheduled for her date. So they are either gonna do 12x normal sales that day; or reschedule?? We are hoping for a reschedule!!!
As we await the axe to fall; we have another home to go to that is mine all mine (no mortgage); but its rented out which helps. My mom is working on buying a property for us to rent from her reasonably. So we will be alright. Our wealth is in housing and my parents pension; not gonna lie, without their pension $$ we would be impoverished quickly upon liquidation of my paid for home
We both work lots; but health premiums alone are 10k per year so its kinda a treadmill. I volunteered all summer at a summer camp, now subbing again; wife is a lunch lady/ grocery checker. Keeping our ears peeled for something with benefits! We get $300 month SNAP; for the last three months(first time ever). When they take it they will own most our complex.
Could somebody tell me what the value of HUD is? FHA loans, right? Section 8, that sort of thing? Isn’t this a bureaucracy we can do without? I’m only saying this because the dicks, er, I mean, repub congresscreatures are squabbling over FEMA, which has some legitimacy and use if run properly. I saw that agency do some awesome work first hand in Florida after Hurricane Andrew. But I mean HUD? What’s the point? Seems to me that eliminating HUD would be a real money-saver.
There you go again, Palmy- making sense. When will you learn that common sense and reason have NO place in current .gov planning or decision making- on EITHER side of the aisle.
In the interest of full disclosure, I’m a registered repub. Which I feel gives me the right to be particularly savage towards repubs in politics if the spirit moves me.
But seriously, if repubs or anyone else are really serious about shrinking the size of goobermint, bureaucracies like HUD are a good place to start. The problem with things like debt and deficit reduction is people want to go for the whole hog and take radical action and make vast cuts right off the bat. And then nothing happens because people harden their positions. But you can start cutting out things that really can be done without, like HUD.
“Which I feel gives me the right to be particularly savage towards repubs in politics if the spirit moves me.”
I like that! Nobody will ever catch me accusing Palmy of being an RNC troll!!
CIBT, I am of the opinion that one has to clean one’s own house before criticizing the neighbor’s. As long as I am a registered repub, I’m going to do my best to see that those who claim to represent me act like adults instead of cannibals.
I’m going to do my best to see that those who claim to represent me act like adults instead of cannibals.
Cheney-$hrub
Well, you had these guys repre$ent you for 8 years, were they adults or the the “other” thing you mention? I’ll take my answer off-line.
Thanks, $hock & Awe from Caliente, CA
“you had these guys repre$ent you for 8 years”
No, they DIDN’T represent me and since you’ve been posting here for as long as I have, you know danged well (or ought to) that my nickname for Bush was Little Caligula.
But, you know, I can understand you missing that because it take some real mental absorption to figure out what word to attach the prefix Tru to. Or what Warner Brothers cartoon/Three Stooges episdoe to riff on next.
“episdoe”
Episode. When I’m angry, I dunt spel 2 gud.
I’m going to do my best to see that those who claim to represent me act like incandescent adults instead of LED cannibals.
Now palmy, it’s not you the citizen-voters eyes a pokin’, it’s their compa$$ionate representatives who make themselves sign pledges of “just-say-no!” and are obligated to subjugate their own beliefs for “group-think”.
Like the fella said: “…their pledges & actions are felony dumb”
HUD = votes of people who get the free housing goodies.
Next question?
Do they actually vote? Or is it more about the vote of others who feel better knowing that HUD is giving away free housing goodies?
There are segments of Philadelphia that have over 100% of the registered voters that vote…
And we load them up in our Squad vans and drive them to the polls
No - the black panthers will take care of that…
That’s good, because Obama’s gonna pay for her gas and mortgage:
http://m.youtube.com/index?desktop_uri=%2F&gl=US#/watch?v=P36×8rTb3jI
That’s good, because Obama’s gonna pay for her gas and mortgage:
Ah, the good old days of hope and change…
Wonder if people miss them. So much hope…
Did you acquire that obsession with a black man from sister Sarah of Alaska?
Had to post that link, its an oldie but goodie and it drives the talking points…
Didn’t HUD give us those “Projects” thingies that destroyed hundreds of communities in the 70s?
Yes, well, they’re doing it again. I grew up in Westchester County and it pains me greatly to see that county being forced into the social engineering of “affordable housing”.
And that’s another thing. It isn’t just HUD. What in the name of Jeebus is the USDA doing handing out affordable housing loans? (I sort of know the answer to that, but it’s pretty insane, too.) USDA should just make sure the food supply is safe. End of story.
“forced into the social engineering of “affordable housing”.
FORCED! WTF is this anyway, the Soviet Union? Because it’s going in that direction. What’s next? Allocation of sex partners for people who are so repulsive they’re not gettin’ any? How would a parent on this blog like to be told their daughter MUST bonk Chaz Bono or she’s going to jail?
Think it can’t get that bad? Government is loaded with perverts who’d like to see exactly that happen.
“What’s next? Allocation of sex partners for people who are so repulsive they’re not gettin’ any?”
Monty, Monty!! Pick me! Pick me!
Come on, Palmy. Even you have to see that this is about the most ridiculous straw man argument ever made on this blog. It maybe fun to type for a few seconds, but it vastly lowers the level of discourse.
I can’t speak for the effectiveness of current HUD policies. But I have friends who are applying for a low/moderate income housing assistance program in Montgomery County. They are a perfectly lovely, responsible couple, both employed, one also going to college and they are somewhat broke. They have a miniscule apartment they can barely afford, that is much too far away from public transportation. If it were not for an elderly neighbor who lets them borrow a car quite often, they would be in fairly dire straights. If they get accepted to the program, they will be able to get a larger place close to public transportation that they can actually afford. They won’t trash it. They won’t deal drugs. They won’t ruin anyone’s neighborhood or building. They will just live there until their income (which should increase over the years) causes them to cease to qualify for the program. At which point they will pay for the new place at market rates, or move someplace else, or rehab a house that has fallen apart because they don’t mind putting in the sweat equity or whatever.
You can’t have a functioning community made up of only high income professionals. You need a mix of lower paid people in there too. And if those people can’t afford a car, then they have to be located fairly close to public transporation or they won’t be able to provide those needed, lower paid services. It is a web.
“Come on, Palmy. Even you have to see that this is about the most ridiculous straw man argument ever made on this blog. It maybe fun to type for a few seconds, but it vastly lowers the level of discourse.”
Oooh, Polly, even you have to see that this is about the most drippingly elitist condescending comment ever made on this blog. It may be fun to type for a few seconds, but it vastly lowers the level of discourse.
See, because I don’t think that term “straw man” means what you think it means, because it doesn’t apply in this case. The Westchester county issue is an actual situation (of course, I gather they opened themselves up to it by taking money from the Federal government and “mis-allocating” it.)
I’ve lived in low-income housing myself, as in low income because the rents were low so lower income folks lived there, myself included. It sucked. But now, some folks hereabouts, who supposedly made less than me (with many more children, I might add) and fit certain ethnic and career categories get to live in some pretty nice digs. Brand new complex (3-4 bedroom units) complete with swimming pool, club house, tot lot, carports and jitneys to ferry them back and forth to work and doctor visits. I went there looking to rent an apartment and the squatty, loudmouth, broken english speaking b*tch behind the counter saw me coming and told me, even before I opened my mouth, that the complex was ONLY for people who worked in the ag industry. And don’t think she didn’t enjoy it. This is a true story. I posted it here back in 2005-2006 when I first joined the blog. Nothing straw man about it. The place is still very much a going concern. The folks who live in the private development next door don’t care for it much.
So I lived in a mold and ant-infested dump with some pretty rough trade for neighbors. No pool. No carport. No jitney to ferry me back and forth. And I’m working and paying taxes to susidize what is essentially a luxury apartment complex for ag workers? And I can’t live there? Let the ag industry provide housing for its workers. It used to, except people didn’t like it. I’ve seen some of it, and I don’t blame them. But that’s for code and zoning to straighten out, or LaRaza, not HUD or the USDA.
They will just live there until their income (which should increase over the years) causes them to cease to qualify for the program. At which point they will pay for the new place at market rates, or move someplace else, or rehab a house that has fallen apart because they don’t mind putting in the sweat equity or whatever.”
what would motivate them to get a higher income and get off the government cheese ? ” maybe they would I don’t know them. But my experience with this type of housing is very very hard to get. So once you’re in you stay in.
The straw man is the government provision of sex partners.
from Wikipedia:
To “attack a straw man” is to create the illusion of having refuted a proposition by replacing it with a superficially similar yet unequivalent proposition (the “straw man”), and refuting it, without ever having actually refuted the original position
“But my experience with this type of housing is very very hard to get.”
Not when you have teams of “activists” coaching you and filling out the paperwork for you.
But let me be honest here, even if I HAD been able to get into that complex, I probably would have declined to live there, given who the neighbors were. And don’t think there isn’t fraud connected to these housing arrangements. What’s to prevent Papi from coming in as a tomato picker or packer and then moving on to a construction job, by undercutting an American citizen? You think he’s going to go to the office and say “Well, we have to move out now, I’m no longer picking tomatos”. In a pig’s eye. And I know this because, in the sh$thole complex where I lived, we had residents who couldn’t get into those complexes due to one issue or another.
“The straw man is the government provision of sex partners.”
Is that what they call it these days? I am so out of touch.
“The straw man is the government provision of sex partners.”
Oh, fer cryin’ out loud, polly, PLEASE! It was a joke, fer chrissakes, especially when followed by the comment about Chaz Bono.
You know, I like you, I really do. I think you have a good heart and you’re sincere and probably one of the few up there in Rome standing between us and certain disaster. But sometimes your tone is just so condescending, just like I imagine people up there in Rome look down on the citizens not being able to understand all the “complicated issues” they have to deal with.
I agree with this: “You can’t have a functioning community made up of only high income professionals. You need a mix of lower paid people in there too. And if those people can’t afford a car, then they have to be located fairly close to public transporation or they won’t be able to provide those needed, lower paid services. It is a web.”
Exactly. It’s a problem my sister had to deal with in her corporate recruiting gig. Couldn’t get admin grunts to commute in from the Bronx, Brooklyn and Queens to service the financiers (who didn’t want to pay higher wages to cover those costs) In fact I read an article back in 1999/2000 in the old Atlantic Monthly about just that subject. Communities used to be more mixed economically, until after WWII, when housing was built to accomodate the automobile. With parking lots and setbacks and suburban zoning, etc. Which made for toxic communities, etc.
But I still don’t think HUD is the answer.
“Is that what they call it these days? I am so out of touch.”
Ok, now that’s just too funny right there.
“What’s to prevent Papi from coming in as a tomato picker or packer and then moving on to a construction job, by undercutting an American citizen? ”
And those construction jobs paid VERY well. Weren’t there drywall hangers making $60K a year?
I actually think New York is set up very well to deal with the mix of people needed to run a comlex society even if they don’t all live in mixed neighborhoods. The public transportation is excellent - a little smelly and uncomfortable, but it is pretty fast, connections work well and if there is a problem on one track on the subway, they can route around it without delaying traffic by half an hour in both directions. My last private employer managed to get secretaries/admins and professionals to commute from Queens to New Jersey with no problem at all. Perhaps they paid better.
DC’s Metro is a little less smelly and a little less uncomfortable if you can commute during off hours, but basically unreliable. And God forbid you are a lower paid worker who has to work on weekends, it barely functions at all as sigle tracking is the rule on at least two lines per weekend. In DC, it is essential that people who can’t afford to maintain a car be able to live in an area that has access to the public transporation system.
The local equivalent of the Village Voice (called City Paper) did a story recently about the problems with people being displaced to the less desirable suburbs as their city nabes were gentrified. It took forever to get to work and a morning variation of as little as 2 minutes could mean getting to work much, much later. It didn’t matter if the 2 minutes was their fault or the fault of the bus operators, or an accident or whatever. People couldn’t get to the college classes they needed to move up at all, or if they did, it meant not getting home since the busses stopped by the time they got to the end of their Metro lines. Heck, one of the admins in my office told me she gets up at 3:30 every morning to get to work on time.
I am not intimately familiar with the finances of these friends. (They are not the ones I help with their taxes.) But the work they do is valuable and it is a good thing that smart, ethical people do it (not just people who can’t get hired to do anything else). But the pay is low. As far as I can tell, the only way they are going to make more money at it is by going into business for themselves, which will require a large chunk of cash, which they can’t save while working at a low paying job. Catch 22.
My last private employer managed to get secretaries/admins and professionals to commute from Queens to New Jersey with no problem at all. Perhaps they paid better.
I can remember working with people from all over the NYC area when I had a summer internship in Manhattan. Some of them came from Jersey. Others trekked in from CT. And quite a few lived in the city.
Wherever they came from, they arrived on time, did their work, then went home.
Metro North and LIR and NJ transit all work. The Marc train and VRE are horrible and don’t run on weekends. If you have to make more than one connection (one bus to one train or one train to one train) DC is impossible. And if you have a job that requires precisely on time arrival all the time, you better be able to drive or walk to one train or drive all the way to work.
I know within a 5 minute window how long it would take me to get to work in central Jersey from Jersey City enven though it was two PATH trains and a New Jersey Transit train. I could get from the front door of my actual apartment to sitting in class at NYU in 25 minutes. I could get from my apartment to the WNYC offices in the Municiple Building near City Hall in 20 minutes - less time than it took for the host of the show to read the interview materials I e-mailed him right before I left.
I can’t get from my current apartment to work (approximately 6 miles) in less than 40 minutes.
“what would motivate them to get a higher income and get off the government cheese ? ” maybe they would I don’t know them. But my experience with this type of housing is very very hard to get. So once you’re in you stay in.”
Wanting to do better and be respected in their professions. Wanting to be self-suporting. Wanting to have more money left over after paying for rent and basic necessities. Wanting to own a house someday. Same reasons anyone else wants to make more money. We are talking about smart people. Just smart people who are a little on the broke side in an area with a very high cost of living.
Seriously. My one of my next door neighbors at my last place was in this program. She was somewhat disabled. This program allowed her to live close enough to work (sign maker and general shelf stocker at a Whole Foods) so that she could get to work on time and actually have a job. She left the program to move to Arizona. She wasn’t living high on the hog even with the rent subsidy. Mattress on the floor and some art supplies was about all I saw in her place. And one of those weird salt crystal lamps. She didn’t even use the bedroom.
Polly:
It’s fun prepping the host and guests and you get to talk to a lot of very smart people..and even get my questions answered….
I could get from my apartment to the WNYC offices in the Municiple Building near City Hall in 20 minutes - less time than it took for the host of the show to read the interview materials I e-mailed him right before I left.
Interesting tidbit: Mitt Romney’s dad was HUD secretary under Nixon. Read Ch 3 of the linked reference (starting on p. 56) for details.
Thanks, CBIT, both you and wmbz are awesome on the references.
I keep thinking I should try pass a copy of this book up the chain to Mitt:
The Housing Boom and Bust
Thomas Sowell on how government policies made the housing crisis possible
Brian Doherty | May 20, 2009
Thomas Sowell, prolific public intellectual and the Rose and Milton Friedman Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, is one of America’s greatest economic thinkers and educators. He’s taught the fundamentals through such books as Economic Facts and Fallacies and Basic Economics and chronicled economic history through such scholarly works as Marxism: Philosophy and Economics and On Classical Economics. In his classic work Knowledge and Decisions, he espoused a sophisticated, largely Hayekian approach, revealing how the efficient spread of relevant knowledge is shaped by our social institutions, and often warped and misshapen by government.
Now, in The Housing Boom and Bust (Basic Books), Sowell contemplates the greatest expansion of government power in a generation, which was itself occasioned by the greatest economic crisis in as long. A quick but thorough guide to the causes of the crises, Sowell’s book shows how government policies led to a huge increase in highly risky housing loans. As he notes, the immense local variability in housing prices and failed loans reveals that the government mistook a set of local problems for a national one, and then imposed a single troublesome national solution. Sowell argues that while foolish decisions to indulge in complicated investment vehicles affected the specifics of how the financial contagion spread, at its root the housing problem is one of bad mortgages. And those came from bad decisions by government and by borrowers themselves.
…
Thomas Swell’s “The Housing Boom and Bust”
I found my copy at the Dollar Tree.
One great book I found at the 99C Only store, that I refer to all the time is called “Search”. It goes through the collection of data from the search engines, how to order pre-employment reports, background check,and other reports they have on you (annually/free). Best buck I ever spent. I could not find it on Amazon, but if shows up at a dollar type store, buy it!
Thomas “Sowell’s “
Mitt Romney’s dad also got “brainwashed” about the war in Vietnam.
That was one of the strangest political statements I have ever read. What was he thinking? I don’t doubt that the reasons for entering the Vietnam War were questionable (for some reason, yellow cake uranium just popped into mind), but it clearly was political suicide for a Republican to question the rationale behind the war in the period leading up to the 1968 election.
HUD budget FY12: $48 billion. Could probably use a re-vamp, maybe put the low-income workers in abandoned base housing?
I know you guys don’t like nanny-state government, but IMO nanny-state government is far cheaper the public-private partnership government. Private sector loves nothing more than to jack up prices to rake in more government cheese.
“public-private partnership government.”
eliminate that, too.
Seriously, we DON’T need HUD.
I put my mouth where my money is, too. Just called my rep’s office and one of my Senator’s office and told them if they want to eliminate goobermint waste, HUD’s a helluva place to start.
Of course, if there were no HUD, where would Auntie Zeituni have lived? Or who would have provided her with a stipend?
No need to work, free housing, free food, free health care…Hell, whats not to like…Sounds like Utopia to me…
’tain’t enuf! We gotta have flash mobs! Bread and circuses!
Speaking of which (and this is way OT, but I just can’t hep myssef, did anyone catch X-factor last night? I look a break from some paperwork I was doing and switched on the teevee for a quick 10 and wished I hadn’t, but it was like watching a train wreck, I couldn’t look away.
This is what it’s come down to, folks: some aging jerk in a baggy silver suit bobbing around on stage singing “I’m a stud” and dropping his pants on stage, while the censors put a big red X over where his naughty bits are, and then the camera follows the “shocked and sickened” Paula Abdul as she walks off to the ladies’ room, goes in, shuts the door and then you can hear her retching. Real classy show, yeah. An X superimposed over naughty bits, with the dulcet sounds of Paula Abdul retching. That’s all you need to know about the X-Factor. Courtesy of Murdoch-sponsored effete and decadent Brits.
And this is an improvement over Dick Clark and Ed Sullivan how?
And oxide, just so you know, it’s not like I think all government is bad. Agencies like FEMA have value IF they do what they’re designed to do, efficiently. I think you DO have to have regulatory agencies to keep dicks in line, I think the USDA should be ensuring that the food supply is safe and the FDA should be ensuring that dangerous drugs are kept off the market.
It’s when it gets into ridiculous sheeyat like raiding Gibson Guitar or suing the state of Arizona that I get pizzed.
I don’t mind the raiding of Gibson Guitar.
The story of the luxury digs for the ag workers DOES pizz me off, though. THAT’s some funding that could stand to be cut. Right now.
HUD’s purpose is to be a deep well of political corruption. (research it, this is not opinion nor hyperbole)
For that reason alone it will never be eliminated.
Coming soon to America?
Of course - we really know who is to blame for this. The PARENTS.
———————————
Italian parents fight to evict 41-year-old son
CNN | September 21st, 2011
The Italian practice of having your children stay at home long into adulthood is facing scrutiny in the courts. A Venetian couple has retained the services of a lawyer in a bid to force their 41-year-old son to leave home. The couple, who have not been named, told local media they were “exhausted” by caring for their adult child. They currently cook for him as well as doing his washing and ironing.
“We cannot do it anymore. My wife is suffering from stress and had to be hospitalized,” said the father. The son “has a good job but still lives at home. He demands that his clothes be washed and ironed and his meals prepared. He really has no intention of leaving.” Lawyer for the couple, Andrea Camp, said a letter was sent to the son, advising him to leave the house within six days or face legal action. If he does not leave, the parents can apply for a “protective order” against the son, who is reported to have an aggressive streak. In 2002, an Italian court decided that adult children – or “mummies’ boys” – could live off their parents indefinitely.
Yesterday in one of our suburbs a guilty verdict was handed down against a 39 y.o. man (37 at the time of the crime) who stabbed his mother to death for not buying him Avril Lavigne concert tickets. They cohabitated a condo with her boyfriend.
Those young bucks can get unruly.
“We cannot do it anymore. My wife is suffering from stress and had to be hospitalized,” said the father. The son “has a good job but still lives at home. He demands that his clothes be washed and ironed and his meals prepared. He really has no intention of leaving.”
Apparently I’m really not understanding something about Italian culture. Yes, I’m aware that “mummies boys” exist there…but why are parents afraid to say “no” to them? Even if if it’s difficult to legally evict them, it’s really easy to just stop doing stuff for them, regardless of what they “demand”…
You got to be kidding me . You mean this couple doesn’t have a right to evict their son ? You could understand the obligation of
taking care of someone 18 or under ,but this is getting absurd .
I really don’t understand the legal permise the kid is standing on . Is he entitled to be kept in the standard of living he has been given by the stupid parents . The kid has a job ,this is absurb .
Agressive streak … if it weren’t so dangerous, I would let the kid live there but refuse to do his laundry or cook his meals until he gets mad enough to attack Mom. That should be enough to take away his key.
I was thinking about the line “we need a strong banking sector to have a strong economy” being spouted by bank execs and the like, and have decided that I agree. I’ve developed a 3 part plan to ensure a strong banking sector.
1) Remove all government and central bank support for banks. We can’t have a strong banking sector if weak players are allowed to survive.
2) Any C-type bank/financial execs from 2001 - present who’s banks required a bailout shall be fired if currently employed, and otherwise banned from holding any position in a FIRE company or holding any C-type position in any company. They failed, and failure can’t be allowed in a strong banking sector.
3) All executive bonuses that were ‘earned’ from 2001-present shall be returned to the financial institution that payed it. A strong banking sector will need the money to survive. If it’s not enough to save the bank, the FDIC will be able to use it.
And throw at least 1,000 of the bankers in jail. We can’t have a strong banking sector if we tolerate fraud or ignoring of banking regulations…
“We can’t have a strong banking sector if we tolerate fraud or ignoring of banking regulations…”
That’s exactly what crissy cox kept yelling to the US citizens for many many years.
I was asking around yesterday about the difference between The Twist and Quantitative Easing. Apparently one difference is that stock traders don’t much care for The Twist.
Reasons?
P.S. The chance that this global stock market crash won’t eventually feed back into U.S. housing prices seems slim to me, but then I don’t claim to be an expert in such matters.
Selloff circles the globe
Street has further to plunge
U.S. stock futures are bathed in red, as investors find little to cheer them in the macroeconomic backdrop, either domestically or globally.
“Reasons?”
IMHO it is ‘INFLATION’. Cheapen the interest rates more and money has to go somewhere for a real rate of return. Housing and land are poor substitutes because the money will be illiquid. Commodities will be the move. As commodities rise, so will the cost of all items. How is the auto industry going to control their costs? How is the farmer going to control his costs? Etc. Poor plan just like the rest but they won’t be able to cover up the results.
Really? Then how come commodities are selling off today with everything else?
Really? Then how come commodities are selling off today with everything else?”
you know why. this infaltion thing is just funny to me. my brother insists on buying GOLD can’t stop fighting the last war of the 1970’s. oh well
except that if incomes don’t rise people will use fewer commodities and demand will collapse.
The problem we have is demand.
The solution Create jobs, change trade policy,and help the middle class.
“INFLATION”
Hats off to anyone who can spot the inflation in these numbers. I certainly can’t.
The only way I can see inflation coming about from here is if central bankers try to create it as a policy measure.
Sept. 22, 2011, 10:22 p.m. EDT
Asia stocks fall, as growth hopes dim
By Sarah Turner, MarketWatch
SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — Asian stocks extended steep losses Friday, with resource shares in particular taking another beating as investors fretted about the possibility of lower global growth.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HK:HSI -1.72%) fell 2.4% after losing 4.9% the previous day, while the Shanghai Composite Index (CN:000001 -0.91%) dropped 1.5%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index (AU:XJO -0.35%) fell 1.4%, and South Korea’s Kospi (KR:0100 -4.45%) dropped 4.5%.
Japan’s markets were closed for a holiday.
Commodity firms were some of the hardest-hit on Friday. In Hong Kong, Jiangxi Copper Co. (HK:358 -5.68% JIXAY -12.95%) tumbled 8.4% and Cnooc Ltd. (HK:883 -3.01% CEO -8.53%) traded down 4.7%, while Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., or Chalco, (HK:2600 -7.73% ACH -8.86%) dropped 8%.
We are in a recession
The Federal Reserve is out of ammunition and the economy is in a recession, according to Randy Forsyth.
Also in Sydney, iron-ore producer Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (AU:FMG -7.60% FSUMY -9.62%) fell 8.6%, while Murchison Metals Ltd. (AU:MMX -6.67%) sank by 13.3%.
The losses came amid weakness in the commodity complex, with benchmark Nymex oil futures trading just above $81 a barrel after falling below that level overnight, and benchmark copper futures down 6 cents at $3.42 a pound in electronic trading.
“The triple whammy of weak [manufacturing purchasing managers’ index] in China and the euro-zone, plus a downbeat assessment from the Federal Reserve about the long-term economic outlook, has sparked sharp falls in commodity prices in the last 24 hours,” said economists at Capital Economics.
“We see little prospect of a significant economic improvement in the developed world or any of the major emerging markets anytime soon. As such, we expect that commodity prices have further to fall,” they said.
…
Stocks just dropped 300 points in about 10 minutes.
Somebody is making huge buckarinis from this 500 pt roller coaster. Just write a program: buy when DOW is blow 11000, sell when above. Day trade like that for the next couple months and you’ll make enough to go Oil City Plan for life.
Last couple months, sure. Next couple months? No thanks.
P.S. The chance that this global stock market crash won’t eventually feed back into U.S. housing prices seems slim to me, but then I don’t claim to be an expert in such matters.
Hwy isn’t an expert either, but my intuition keeps repeating: “wait,… good acres & lower price$ just beyond the horizon, keep walking, include 360 degree details in travel journal, no hurry, no worrie$”.
And now for a poetry reading.
Bats @ss rats @ss dirty old sock
Four more Deadbeats livin on the block
Drive nice cars vacations too
I`m sick of these victims how about you?
Ya gonna set that to music? It has a nice ring to it…
Music? How quaint. All you need is a percussive rhythm accentuated by 20 Hz thumps.
I like it Jeff…
Bravo!
September 22, 2011, 5:00 am
Can the I.M.F. Save the World?
By SIMON JOHNSON
DESCRIPTION
Simon Johnson, the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, is the co-author of “13 Bankers.”
The finance ministers and central bank governors of the world gather this weekend in Washington for the annual meeting of countries that are shareholders in the International Monetary Fund. As financial turmoil continues unabated around the world and with the I.M.F.’s newly lowered growth forecasts to concentrate the mind, perhaps this is a good time for the fund – or someone – to save the world.
Yet there are three problems with this way of thinking. At least in a short-term macroeconomic sense, the world does not really need saving. If the problems do escalate, the monetary fund does not have enough money to make a difference. And the big dangers are primarily European — the European Union and key euro zone members have to work out some difficult political issues, and their delays are hurting the global economy.
But very little can be done to push them in the right direction.
The world’s economy is slowing, without a doubt. The latest quantification was provided Tuesday in the I.M.F.’s World Economic Outlook (see Table 1.1), perhaps the most comprehensive forecast of global growth and its main components. (Disclosure: I helped produce and present these forecasts when I was chief economist at the I.M.F., a position I left in summer 2008.)
The fund has reduced its forecasts for both 2011 and 2012, and while the latter is a more notable change, we can see the gloomy 2011 picture all around us. Compared with its view in June, the fund now expects global growth in 2012 to be one-half of one percentage point lower than previously expected.
Part of the pessimism is about the United States – total growth of gross domestic product in 2012 is expected to be only 1.8 percent, anemic at best. (Remember that our population typically grows at just under 1 percent annually, so this level of growth would barely put a dent in unemployment.)
But the really stark message is for Europe. According to the I.M.F., the euro zone as a whole will expand only 1.1 percent in 2012, and hopes that troubled countries will grow out their debts seem increasingly like a stretch. Just to take one example, Italy’s forecast for 2012 has been marked down to just 0.3 percent — and even in the best case, credit availability in Italy will probably get tighter over the coming months, which may further slow growth.
A potential recession in the euro zone and a weak recovery in the United States does not make for a world crisis. So beware people who demand that the world be saved; usually they are making the case for a bailout of some kind.
…
A potential recession in the euro zone and a weak recovery in the United States does not make for a world crisis.
Weak recovery? I love economists and their BS.
How about “a vicious recession and defaults in the euro zone and a strong recession in the US”.
If the US and Euro zone cut back on their consumption and hence import less that will discombombulate all of the other export driven economies.
So beware people who demand that the world be saved; usually they are making the case for a bailout of some kind
This sounds like he’s talking about Hank Paulson
Recently a new phrase has entered my life; we are continually being told at work that we have “Unnecessary People”. The same person also keeps telling us that 15 to 20% of the population are “Unnecessary People”, as are the same proportion of our work force. I do hope he never reaches a position of power, I suspect his definition of “Unnecessary People” is unlikely to agree with mine.
The idea dates to Malthus, but Dickens gave it a place in literature:
Updated version:
If they’d rather die, they had better do it before they suck up too much healthcare.
I seem to recall it this way….
And if they must die, why don’t they die now and decrease the surplus population?
I suppose you’ll be wanting the ENTIRE day off tomorrow, Bob Cratchet?
The National Socialist German Workers’ Party of Germany (Nazis) had a phrase for it:
“Some lives are not worth living”
or
The phrase “life unworthy of life” (in German: “Lebensunwertes Leben”) was a Nazi designation for the segments of populace which had no right to live and thus were to be “euthanized”. The term included people with serious medical problems and those considered grossly inferior according to racial policy of the Third Reich, This concept formed an important component of the ideology of Nazism and eventually helped lead to the Holocaust
en DOT wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_unworthy_of_life
———————
And that is what happens when people with this mindset (no value for life no matter how vulnerable) do reach a position of power.
The fallacy of our new age consumer/service economy.
People, unnecessary at the workplace are quite necessary in the aisles of the big box store or in the seat across the desk from a loan officer.
“When the Nazis came for the communists,
I remained silent;
I was not a communist.
When they locked up the social democrats,
I remained silent;
I was not a social democrat.
When they came for the trade unionists,
I did not speak out;
I was not a trade unionist.
When they came for the Jews,
I remained silent;
I wasn’t a Jew.
When they came for me,
there was no one left to speak out.”
Martin Niemöller
People start out thinking they can pick and choose who will benefit financially ,and than they think they can pick who can live or die .
This sort of elitist thinking that takes place is really very bizarre
and who knows how far it can go .
This tranfer of wealth BS is a form of picking the winners and losers that could lead to more bizarre forms of picking and choosing .
If one becomes poverty stricken they could be denied health care and that could be a death sentence .
Its all just a form of sectors thinking they are more entitled to
life than others and the deck should be stacked in their favor .
Anybody that thinks that there good fortune in life is just a product of their own efforts is crazy ,its also a product of what
group you were in from the start .
“Anybody that thinks that there good fortune in life is just a product of their own efforts is crazy “
In some groups, it is not good fortune, it is a blessing. And it is not a product of their own efforts, it is a gift from God. This thinking should promote humility. But in some people it does not.
“its also a product of what group you were in from the start .”
Very true. It is much easier to climb the mountain if you start halfway up. And it takes almost no effort if you are already at the top.
I would say that there is also a measure of pure luck, even if you were born into the right group. You didn’t get hit by the proverbial truck. You weren’t where the plane crashed at the airshow. You lived 20 miles (or more) from Joplin. Your spouse did not contract a protracted, fatal illness. Your company decided not to outsource your job.
Effort is necessary, but not sufficient.
This is actually very commonplace thinking, frankie.
If you read some of the readers comments on other news sites, (pick any) you will see that at least 50% of the commenters have very little sympathy for others in general and purposely would like to see them dead.
It’s the reason Hitler and other infamous dictators were and are able to rise to power.
What this d bag doesn’t understand is that the world needs that unemployed 20% to keep consuming, if they don’t then the next wrung on the ladder will become “unnecessary”
Technology has created a world where humans using machines can produce more than what is needed particularly as the wealth has become more and more concentrated at the top.
Based on what is going on in the stock market, it appears the rich are accusing the Federal Reserve of providing them with an inadequate supply of free money.
Oxygen! I need oxygen!
friend of mine told me this joke…
An infinite number of mathematicians walk into a bar. The first one tells the bartender he wants a beer. The second one says he wants half a beer. The third one says he wants a fourth of a beer. The fourth one says he wants an eighth of a beer and so on and so on.
The bartender puts two beers on the bar and says “You guys need to learn your limits.”
Good one!
A physicist, a computer scientist and a mathematician apply for the same job. One of the tasks on the interview it to build a fence around a herd of sheep. The physicist builds a nice fence. The CS guy, concerned about efficiency, improves on it by herding the sheep close together to build an even shorter fence. The mathematician builds a fence around himself and defines himself as being outside.
Update on that housing credit from uncle Sam . Most houses have now decreased several times in value , the amount of the credit . Also , folks are still stuck for the full 3 years before they can unload the house again .. Free $$$$ anyone ?
“Most houses have now decreased several times in value , the amount of the credit.”
If you scour the annals of the HBB, you will discover I predicted that eventuality numerous times. Downpayment constraints create quite a bit of leverage off an $8K credit which most folks didn’t seem to notice when they sought to capture a tiny bit of ‘free money’ from Uncle Sam.
For instance, if the downpayment someone made was 3.5% and the lack of a downpayment was constraining them from buying, the effective leverage on $8K applied to a 3.5% downpayment could have been $8000/0.035 = $228,571 or so.
Remove the tax credit, and remove as much as $228K in purchase budget for someone without $8K lying around to make a 3.5% downpayment.
The present looks worse than the futures looked forty-five minutes ago. Is it safe to say the FOMC didn’t quite give Wall Street all they were expecting?
Dow drops 320 pts.
U.S. stock futures are bathed in red, as investors find little to cheer them in the macroeconomic backdrop, either domestically or globally.
Market strongarming Benny boy into coughing it up.
And giving the puppets their political cover.
Printing press still works, but no ink left.
On a side note, I’m luvvin this foreclosure talk. Even if I have to pay high month-to-month rent for another year, it’s worth it if the selection improves.
Is Wall street actually less intimidating than getting treated ugly in Texas?
In the government’s oncoming frenzy to “do something”, I hope they don’t wind up doing more harm than good.
The policy makers scoff at “moral hazard.” But they all too often wind up encouraging destructive behaviors, then rush in and encourage yet more destructive behaviors to make up for it.
Talk about a death spiral.
That’s what happens when a country is run by gangsta bankstas.
No Laughing Matter
European Banks Stress Tests and Other Bad Jokes
Eric Fry :TDR
Reporting from Laguna Beach, California…
We like a good joke. Here’s a cute one:
What’s invisible and smells like carrots?
Answer: Bunny farts.
Here’s another one…
Two fish swim into a wall. The one turns to the other and says, “Dam!”
But we don’t like bad jokes very much. Here’s one:
What did the fisherman say to the card magician?
Answer: Pick a cod, any cod!
Here’s another one…
Many large European banks are solvent.
The recent stress tests of European banks were “a joke,” according to Jim Chanos, the famous short seller who laughed all the way to the bank when betting against fatally flawed companies like Enron, Conseco and Boston Chicken.
“The [stress] tests are a joke,” Chanos declared during an interview yesterday on Bloomberg TV. “The accounting is a joke and the markets are beginning to say, ‘No More!’” Chanos said he would be short these banks right now if European regulators had not outlawed the practice last month.
The stress test “joke” is only one small sliver of the European game of make-believe. Central bankers and politicians throughout Europe are continuing to pretend that various insolvent banks and insolvent governments are in fine shape…as long as they get a little bit of help form the ECB.
But the financial markets are providing ample evidence to the contrary. The share prices of many European banks are plummeting, while the yields of many European government bonds are skyrocketing. The now-infamous Greek two-year government bond yields a whopping 134%!
In other words, even if European banks can pass a contrived stress test with flying colors, they are flunking the “normalcy test.” Many European banks, like many European governments, have erected such a fragile and precarious financial structure that bankruptcy seems inevitable, even without any additional stress.
A deepening crisis of some kind is certain, especially because the US economy is still reeling from the credit crisis of 2008. Fearing a repeat of ’08, the US Federal Reserve is springing into action, which pretty much guarantees a repeat. Earlier today, the Fed christened the launch of “Operation Twist” — a scheme to buy up a bunch of the long-term Treasury bonds.
Confused?
Don’t be. Operation Twist is simply a new form of Quantitative Easing, which was simply a new form of printing money out of thin air. (The Fed says it will pay for its new purchases with proceeds from the sale of the short-dated Treasuries it already owns. We don’t believe it. By hook or by crook, the Fed’s balance sheet will probably grow over the next few months. We will be watching). Op Twist, therefore, is merely the next illogical step in a regrettable progression toward dollar debasement. After Op Twist, look for Operation Contort, Operation Zig-Zag, Operation Bait-and-Switch, Operation Capital Control and ultimately, Operation Devalue.
Nice post wmbz…
So the local news minute update just reported the Federal Reserve came out and said the economic slump could last for years.
No bleeping kidding. So now the sheep finally are getting the picture. Maybe they’ll stop buying houses and this baby can correct.
I doubt it. Too many people still believe houses will soon shoot up in value. I spoke with a Realtor last week who told me that all the good buys were gone, as everyone who didn’t buy yet will be left out in the cold when prices start to rise again.
And that leads us full circle to the comment by scdave (yesterday’s B&B), that if entity was to buy the shadow inventory in bulk at a major discount, it might be a formed fund or hedge fund, and that started a great thread on the topic.
Buy, hold, rent, and with limited homes to market, the price will rise on their ROI. How about the lack of subprimes, incomes rising and unemployment?
Moman- it was a real-liar. Were they moving their lips? Need I say more.
I know. I’ve been arguing the fear was gone here after people realized they weren’t going to be laid off. So until those layoffs start up again, they’ll be clinging to the ‘it’s different here” mantra. Eds and meds have corrected elsewhere but the state is protecting these two industries so far.
I have a friend in one of those industries that complains about her job almost daily on FB. She obviously does not worry about layoffs. I used to have another friend in my home state in the same industry who also used to complain publically. Then the multiple listings of industry layoffs sweeping the entire state hit the media. She’s probably very good and she’s still working but can’t help but notice she’s been quiet ever since.
You want to change behavior? Fears a strong habit inhibitor.
From the Denver Post:
Colorado incomes fall sharply from 1999 to 2010, analysis says
“Colorado households are making significantly less money than they did a decade ago, pushing up the poverty rate and delaying marriages. On the positive side, more Coloradans have completed high school and college to stay competitive in a tough economy, according to an analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey by I-News, the Rocky Mountain Investigative News Network.
The survey reports a 2010 median household income in Colorado of $54,046, compared with a 1999 median household income, adjusted to 2010 dollars, of $61,767 and 2009 household income of $55,430. “That probably reflects two-earner households where one person got laid off or went part time,” said Broomfield economist Gary Horvath.”
FYI most Americans are earning less than similar situated Americans did 30 years ago.
This was first covered up by more workers per household, and median household income continued to rise.
Then by lost future (as opposed to cash) income as private sector workers joining the labor force since 1980 lost pension and other retirement benefits. That didn’t affect cash income.
Then it was covered up by soaring debts, allowing the material standard of living to be maintaned and in some cases increased.
Now it can no longer be covered up.
We are looking at a structural economic collapse similar to the collapse of the post-New Deal economic structure in the 1970s, and the preceding radial lazzie faire structure in the 1930s.
Now it can no longer be covered up.
+1000
Which is why all the bloviating about house, automobile, and other durable goods spending rising back to “historical” levels is wishful thinking. 30+ years of offshoring has taken its toll.
Injecting stimulus money into an economy with so much offshoring is like pumping water into a bucket filled with holes.
Colorado households are making significantly less money than they did a decade ago, pushing up the poverty rate and delaying marriages.
Yet Colorado houses remain much more expensive than they were in 1999…in most locations anyway.
They’re getting close in Loveland. I’ld say 2002-3 prices.
In my old Westminster neighborhood (built in 1996-97) they’ve been at 2001 prices for 10 years. All the drop will occur when they go from 2001 back to 1996 (if it ever happens…and I still think it will). And then we’ll still be talking about houses that are almost 20 years old…not nice new houses like they were back then. That should be enough to compensate for the inflation factor.
Lotsa blood on The Street today
MarketWatch dot com
Markets »
Dow Volume:39.94M
Avg Vol: 223.39M
Unchanged 143
Decliners 5160
Advancers 463
Dow 10,763 -362 -3.26%
Nasdaq 2,452 -86 -3.40%
S&P 500 1,128 -38 -3.26%
GlobalDow 1,689 -84 -4.74%
Gold 1,733 -75 -4.14%
Oil 81.11 -4.81 -5.60%
Hwy has tag for extra fishin’ pole (unzips lures pouch…decision$, decision$), Geez, eyes almost forgot rule #1!: 1st look under rocks & wet logs for dragon-fly nymphs…
Fewer people sought unemployment benefits last week, though applications remain elevated
WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of people applying for unemployment benefits fell last week, though the decline isn’t enough to signal improvement in the job market.
Weekly applications dropped by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 423,000, the Labor Department said Thursday.
The four-week average, a less volatile figure, rose slightly for the fifth straight week to 421,000.
Applications typically need to fall below 375,000 to signal sustainable job growth. They haven’t been that low since February.
“September is shaping up to be another difficult month for the job market,” said Ryan Sweet, an economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Higher unemployment benefit applications may suggest more employers are laying off workers amid growing worries that the economy has weakened.
400k is the new normal. As long as it hovers around that number economists tell us that all is well. Nevermind that during brighter times that number would have been considered terrible, if not outright disastrous.
We are the frog in the simmering pot.
400k is the new normal. As long as it hovers around that number economists tell us that all is well. Nevermind that during brighter times that number would have been considered terrible, if not outright disastrous.
During a republican president - it would have been in the headlines and at the top of the news every night.
I also notice how we have no homeless people when a democrat is president too.
Kinda like the “US Military Death Count” - have not seen that in the news since obama was inaugurated…
I call BS.
Washington AP doesn’t count as a headline at the top of the news? The media is not coddling Obama; if anything I see the opposite. I presume it’s even worse on Sunday mornings, but I no longer watch those shows.
Neither party has truly addressed the poor since RFK and LBJ. Instead, politicians, ever more dependent on donations from the rich, instead chose to follow the rising tide theory — which worked… until the water drained out to China and India.
Every few days, PBS NewsHour shows those killed in the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, and have been doing so since the beginning. They “show them as their deaths become official and photographs become available. Here, in silence, are eight more.”
George Stepaholopolis does something similar on his Sunday morning show.
I agree. I think the reason so little fuss is made over the 400K number is because it is the “new normal”
I think so little fuss is made because they don’t want to spook the animals and get a stampede.
That too
It’s a mainstream media conspiracy; only the brilliant commentators at Fox News will tell us the unbiased truth.
Took the words right out of my mouth.
“New normal” indeed.
Never been a better time to buy!
Sept. 22, 2011, 10:00 a.m. EDT
Mortgage rates remain near record lows
By Ruth Mantell
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — With weak economic data and investor concerns over European debt, mortgage rates remained near record lows in the week ending Sept. 22, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained at 4.09% — these data go back to 1971 — matching the record low hit in the prior week, according to the buyer of residential mortgages. A year ago, the rate was at 4.37%. “A sluggish economy and investor concerns over the European debt markets left mortgage rates largely unchanged this week,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a statement. Meanwhile, the average rate on the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a record low, ticking down to 3.29% from 3.30% in the prior week. These data go back to 1991. The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage rose to 3.02% from 2.99%, while the 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM inched higher to 2.82% from 2.81%.
It’s a good time to buy at 2001 prices, actually.
If you take the 2001 prices and do inflation adjusting (if they’re not already adjusted), prices are even lower.
Who knows if it will go up or down, but I’m not going to be betting any of my money. I’d happily bet OPM as long as it’s not recourse, and as long as the written off amount is tax free. Oh wait, that’s what got us into this mess, oh well not my problem.
Sept. 22, 2011, 10:00 a.m. EDT
August economic indicators signal weak growth
By Ruth Mantell
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The economy should exhibit “continued weak growth” through the fall and winter, the Conference Board said Thursday as it reported that its index of leading economic indicators grew 0.3% in August, compared with a 0.1% gain expected by economists polled by MarketWatch. “There is growing risk that sustained weak confidence could put downward pressure on demand and business activity, causing the economy to potentially dip into recession,” said Ken Goldstein, a Conference Board economist, in a statement. “While the chance of that happening remains below 50-50, the odds have certainly increased in recent months.” The LEI is a weighted gauge of 10 indicators that are designed to signal business cycle peaks and troughs. Among the 10 indicators that make up the LEI, four made positive contributions in August, led by the real money supply. The largest negative contribution came from stock prices. The LEI for July was revised to 0.6% from a prior estimate of 0.5%.
“U.S. financial stocks fell sharply along with the broader market, and insurers like Genworth Financial and Lincoln National Corp. bore the brunt of the selling.”
Any of you childless folks counting on Long Term Care insurance to keep you from extreme suffering in old age? Looks like a long bout of ultra low long term interest rates might prevent companies such as Genworth from meeting those obligations — if in fact there was ever any chance of those obligations actually being met.
Annuities don’t look so good, either. Those without guarantees might not get a return on their capital, but at least they might get a return of their capital — in a currency worth less.
Promises, promises.
Promises of money made in an eight-percent-plus-return world are destined to be broken when the return falls to two-percent or so.
So many people are destined to be screwed, so few of these people know it.
Those without guarantees might not get a return on their capital, but at least they might get a return of their capital — in a currency worth less.
Guarantees???
By whom?
They ain’t worth squat either…
By whom ??
For many, many millions its YOU my friend…The United States of America TAX payer…
Annuities don’t look so good, either.
This is going to be an unpleasant surprise for folks who have been good about saving cash or building up equity of any sort. They’ll think they’re sitting pretty until they see how small the returns are.
What are these “returns” you speak of?
Any of you childless folks counting on Long Term Care insurance to keep you from extreme suffering in old age? Looks like a long bout of ultra low long term interest rates might prevent companies such as Genworth from meeting those obligations — if in fact there was ever any chance of those obligations actually being met.
I’m childfree, and I’ve never put a cent into LTC insurance. Why not? Because that industry’s entering an insurance death spiral.
What does that mean? It means that the payout demands on the policies are turning out to be a lot higher than the companies expected. So, they’re really cranking up rates on the policy holders who haven’t used LTC yet.
And more than a few of those policy holders are deciding that the new rates are too expensive. So, they’re dropping the policies.
We’ve had several reports of couples committing suicide in the region. Seems to be the new Plan B.
Which leaves only the sickest in the pool. But at least they get to use the money of the people who abandoned the policies.
My parents have it. They tell me that every year when they write out the checks they tell each other that one of their dearest hopes is that neither of them ever need it. And they also tell me that there are only two companies in that entire industry that are close to solvent on their plans.
And they also tell me that there are only two companies in that entire industry that are close to solvent on their plans.
Which gets at the basic problem of LTC. It’s insurance for something that is likely to happen to almost everyone. Which makes it very difficult for the industry to remain solvent.
Insurance works best when it’s covering infrequent events like house fires, car crashes, and premature deaths of bread winners.
From wsj DOT com
Select Cities See Brain Gain
From the infographic, percentage of residents college grad or higher in 2010:
DC 50.1%
MA 39.0%
CO 36.4%
MD 36.1%
CT 35.5%
And at the other end of the scale:
WV 17.5%
AR 19.5%
MS 19.5%
KY 20.5%
LA 21.4%
FWIW, Colorado attracts a lot of college grads from out of state.
Is it for good jobs? If not, why do they move there?
From what I hear, it’s the lifestyle: skiing, hiking, etc.
It’s hard to make it here. You hear lots of stories about people who move here and who return to where they came from after a year or two with their tail between their legs.
Don’t get me wrong, there are jobs here, this isn’t Alabama or some other “right to work” state, and they pay OK. From what I see a lot of grads move here for the lifestyle, messing up the supply and demand curves.
+1 on the lifestyle. I pay the same rent here for an apartment 2/3 the size of what I left in the midwest. Better backyard here, thousands of square miles of national forests, world class skiing even though no real jobs in the ski towns. Can’t understand why most of my 20-something co-workers are so eager to embrace mortgage debt-slavery and spend every weekend stuck in Denver doing yardwork and ‘fixing up’ their sh*tshack starter home they paid $140/square foot to buy (with $8K help from Uncle Sugar).
Is it for good jobs?
Back in the mid 90s when I came down from Wyoming it was for good jobs. Colorado was the closest thing to Wyoming where you could actually get a tech job.
DC 50.1%
MA 39.0%
CO 36.4%
MD 36.1%
CT 35.5% ???
And who are the major employers in those states…Just wondering…
Denver, Colorado is notorious for being a “back office” town. Quality employers are few and far between.
Janus Mutual Funds hiring new grads for telephone customer service, $11.50/hour, no benefits, temporary only
Do they require a college degree for those positions?
I believe that they do.
About 5 years ago I worked for a software company that staffed its $12/hr tech support department with Computer Science grads from CU in Boulder.
Getting that first Software Engineer job is critical for Computer Science grads. If you don’t get one soon after graduation you might be tagged as damaged goods and be stuck at the help desk.
Being the poverty stricken soul that I was, I went to night school, so I could work at a full time day job. Just like all of my classmates
(except those Vietnam vets going to school on VA benefits, but I digress…..)
Everybody tried to get a job in the aviation business, to get “hands on experience”. All of the local aviation businesses knew this, and compensated their employees accordingly.
Across the street from school, was a shop that overhauled P&W radial engines, R-985s and R-1340s. Pretty complicated pieces of machinery. A buddy of mine started there as a parts cleaner, paid $3/hr.
(Note: at FAA licensed “Repair stations”, you aren’t required to have a mechanics/A&P license. Theoretically, you have the training and QC system that insures quality, for the work that the FAA issues the repair station license for. This is how the Repair stations get away with hiring $10/hr, English as a second language “maintenance personnel” to fix your airliner…..at least back in my day, they mainly used it to hire kids like my friend, who were indentured slaves until they graduated from school.).
Eighteen months later, he’s building up these engines by himself, and running them in on the test cells.
But he was still making $3.00/hr.
These, and other experiences/observations have convinced me that many, if not most, “business owners”, are different than you and me. They will screw their employees any and every way they think they can get away with. They can’t help themselves. It’s their X-box. You keep score with money.
I call it the “Don’t leave a G.D. dime on the Table” syndrome.
Getting that first Software Engineer job is critical for Computer Science grads.
Same for new engineering grads. When I graduated in 95 the economy was starting to perk up for the experienced guys but was still really weak for the new grads. When you’re a kid from the sticks with no contacts and no internships (spent summers playing army) breaking in can be challenging. Definitely was for me. Graduated in May, moved to CO in Sep with no job offers because nobody was talking to me if I didn’t live locally even though I was ready to move. Still didn’t start my first job until Jan 96.
major employers
We know the answer for DC and Maryland. The federal government and businesses such as defense contractors and lobbyists are major employers there. There are also a lot of journalists in DC, although I don’t know if those jobs make up a large portion of total employment.
The economy of Massachusetts is dominated by “eds and meds”. This refers to colleges, universities, hospitals, biomedical research, pharmaceutical compaines, etc. The MA economy is doing better than the national economy because these industries tend to be fairly recession-proof.
For various reasons, the average age in a number of Northeast states like PA and CT has been increasing quite a bit over the past few decades, so health care has become an important source of employment there as well.
There’s something else that’s important to keep in mind. I heard a statustuc about 25 years ago that 30% of workers in the American workforce have college degrees, but only 20% of all jobs require a bachelor’s degree. In other words, one out three college graduates works at a job that doesn’t require a degree. It’s possible that that proportion is even higher in those five states listed above.
For various reasons, the average age in a number of Northeast states like PA and CT has been increasing quite a bit over the past few decades, so health care has become an important source of employment there as well.
PA has the second highest proportion of elderly of any state. The state with the highest proportion is (you guessed it!) Florida.
The DC number is surprising. Yes the government is full of college grads, but how many of them reside in the District?
Public union and bankers. Parasites on society.
—————
One-day rehiring nets former Chicago labor leader $158,000 pension
Chicago Tribune | 9/21/2011 | Jason Grotto
Most city workers spend decades in public service to build up modest pensions. But for former labor leader Dennis Gannon, the keys to securing a public pension were one day on the city payroll and some help from the Daley administration.
And his city pension is more than modest. It’s the highest of any retired union leader: $158,000. That’s roughly five times greater than what the typical retired city worker receives.
In fact, his pension is so high that it exceeds federal limits and required the city pension fund to file special paperwork with the Internal Revenue Service to give it to him.
This article plainly indicates that the average worker receives a pension of about 30k per year. But I thought ALL union pensions were exorbitant…
One greedy bastard doesn’t mean that an entire subset of people are ‘parasites’.
It does if you’re a sock puppet of insane elitist sadists.
Chief among them in this case is this douche Dennis Gannon and anyone who assisted in this thievery.
From the Washington Examiner:
Study: Most new Texas jobs went to immigrants
“The report estimates that about 40 percent of the new jobs were taken by illegal immigrants, while 40 percent were taken by legal immigrants.
The study notes that 56 percent of newly-arrived immigrants in Texas since 2007 have had a high school degree or less.”
Surprise, surprise. Those must have been some “quality” jobs!
When I see the push for made in America in an industry like textiles I immediately think more illegals/immigrants will benefit than the born in the US workers anyway. Since there are never any crackdowns for not following the rules on the books, corporations have been allowed for the last decade or more to have access to low cost labor. They’re gonna work every angle to hang onto it.
Yes Carrie:
Why do you think there are so so many “intern” ads since OH took office?
Becuse they knew OH only cared about union members. Major companies and just abusing this system and now they want you to bring in your own up to date laptop….no netbooks..just a high end laptop so you can work for free.
The unpaid intern abuse has been around for a while. Just like the H1-B and L1 visa abuse has been around for years.
Forgive me for asking aNYCdj, but what exactly are your skills?
I ask because I’ve been able to get interviews and have a job offer in hand. One that pays a salary. And I’m not an “airhead chicky poo” either (I’m a 50+ year old programmer).
And before you get upset, I’m not implying that the job market is easy. Far from it. But I’m seeing that people with the right skills can find jobs that pay near 6 figures.
Ive worked in radio tv stations, operating equipment, Master control at Court tv all during the OJ trial…..worked on Johnny Cochran and Nancy Grace’s tv show…been a paralegal, dj cared for my father before i found this blog, Lots of other things……
Been talking to a CA dj Jim “poorman” trenton to work on his radio show supposed to start Monday…but now they said they have no $$$ and will hire 2 interns….good luck finding people to work for free from 10pm-2 AM everynight..
so thats been a waste of time….
From what I have read there are no jobs in TV and Radio as both have become highly automated in this age of corporate owned radio and TV. It sounds like your skills are unfortunately for a moribund industry, or at least one that is in heavy cost cutting mode (which means no hiring).
I know that a lot of people think that there are plenty of jobs for paralegals, but being that we have an attorney in the office who passed the state bar and who works as a low paid software tester I know that the streets in the legal world aren’t paved with gold either.
I know that you are older and that some hiring managers simply cannot see beyond that. But based on what you said above you should probably move on to something else (I know, easier said than done).
Good luck finding people to work for free from 10pm-2 AM every night.
My beloved KXCI does it every single day of the week. Almost all of the deejays are volunteers and some have had their deejay spots for decades.
Now, granted, very few of them make a living as deejays, but there are several who handle private events. I’ve also been talking with one (who has a marvelous mature male voice) about getting into voiceover work. He’d be quite good at it.
So, NYC, here’s an idea for you — look at getting into voiceovers. It can be quite lucrative.
“It sounds like your skills are unfortunately for a moribund industry”
That describes a lot of what used to be good jobs. The business model has changed dramatically and almost overnight for a lot of businesses - photography, journalism, mail, music, publishing. Basically, anything that can be digitized.
“jobs for paralegals”
You used to have to go to a law library to do research. Now most of it can be done online and a lot of it is being done in India.
Maybe you should write a DJ app for iPhone.
Thanks all……trust me i do know a lot of people and even the pros are hurting.
There are a lot of good people who do some great internet radio shows have 10,000+ facebook followers, and all they lack is the funding to get off the ground.
Radio stations now expect you to pay for your own airtime and get your own advertising clients. The same as club/bar dj’s….the owners ask do you have a following? If not well you wont get paid.
Just like news reporters who are now 1 man band write shoot edit upload to the station then drive to the next location.
I used to go out with news crews as a full time job. used to always be 3 in a van……
Interesting to see this in the Washington Examiner. They are right-wing and proud of it. Maybe they want Romney over Perry?
Lessons from the financial crisis, from the CFPB:
http://www.consumerfinance.gov/speech/lessons-learned-from-the-financial-crisis-the-need-for-the-cfpb/
Dark comedy: I found a house in the Baltimore area. Beautiful house, relative affordable:
http://www.homesdatabase.com/MD/CATONSVILLE/21228/homes-for-sale/626-ALDERSHOT-RD-64918470/popup
I wondered why it was relatively affordable. But, being near Baltimore, I had a suspicion. But, to confirm, I checked the crime logs:
http://www.baltimorecountymd.gov/agencies/police/crime/index.html
I put in a date from mid march to the current time. And yikes. Lots of lots of little symbols indicating a crime. Including a murder right by the house.
Lesson: check the crime logs.
Real shame about that house, really looks like something that, in a safe neighborhood, would really be a nice shelter.
The don’t call it Baltimourge for nuthin…
From the Associated Press:
Census: Recession taking toll on young adults
“In record-setting numbers, young adults struggling to find work are shunning long-distance moves to live with mom and dad, delaying marriage and buying fewer homes
For recent college grads now getting by with waitressing, bartending and odd jobs, they will have to compete with new graduates for entry-level career positions when the job market eventually does improve
Richard Freeman, an economist at Harvard University, added, “These people will be scarred, and they will be called the lost generation“
Richard Freeman, an economist at Harvard University, added, “These people will be scarred, and they will be called the lost generation“
Hope and change meets reality…
I have a feeling I won’t be seeing so many obama posters on campus in 2012.
Even with that, besides Ron Paul none of the GOP candidates have been appeal to these younguns….
Hope and change meets reality… …8 years of Cheney-$hrub lowering U$ National taxe$ whil$t $pending 4 Trillion$ of Boom-Boom-Bang-Bang Islamic’s de$ire democraptic education programs outside the U$A.
I have a feeling I won’t be seeing so many obama posters on campus in 2012.
So you think that the college kids are gonna line up behind Perry or Bachmann?
They know Obama is a weak leader, but they harbor no illusions about what the GOP will do for them.
I think they know what the GOP has already DONE for them.
No way will the youth vote for Perry, another “D” student from Texas.
“So you think that the college kids are gonna line up behind Perry or Bachmann?
I think he’s saying that fewer will be motivated to line up at all. I’m not wishing it, but he may be right. As is often the case, many will have to be scared into voting for their candidate.
Yes because we all know the solution to our problem is more tax breaks for the elite, and slashing wages and benefits for everyone else. ????
We have plenty of “lost generations” already. The 50% of the workforce that earns less than $500 a week didn’t come out of nowhere.
Maybe we can call them the “Lucky Ducky Generation”, that is until the next GOP admin and congress changes the tax code so that they have to pay a minimum income tax.
“These people will be scarred, and they will be called the lost generation.”
These people will emerge from the “entitlement generation” and will become the “lean-and-mean generation” (an echo of events that made our grandparents lean-and-mean).
The Fourth Turning and such.
Every generation since those that came of age in the 1960s has been worse off financially, on average and adjusted for the business cycle, than those who came before.
It’s when those on the losing end reach old age that it will really hurt.
Well you wouldn’t get that impression five or six years ago when every American was told they were entitled to anything he/she wanted via borrowed money while people located Somewhere Else did all the heavy lifting.
Sad reality — even as they were becomming poorer, younger generations were told to “Live Richly.”
“Sad reality - even as they were becoming poorer, younger generations were told to ‘Live Richly’.”
True dat. And there was no way to reach them and tell them differently. And it’s not just the younger ones.
Old guys I know believe this “downturn” is some sort of temporary situation - as all downturns during their lives have been temporary situations - and they are happily walking away from stable good-paying jobs in return for promises of ten-plus-percent returns on their retirement funds as promised by circling-shark investment advisors.
Old guys I know believe this “downturn” is some sort of temporary situation
Back in 2001 after I was laid off I did some IT work on the side while I looked for a real job, mostly fixing people’s PCs at home.
Once customer was an oldster. We started chatting while I upgraded his PC WinXP. When he heard that I had been laid off he asked me how long until I was called back to work.
“Never” I replied.
He was shocked. He thought that I was furloughed.
Lean and mean generation? The lucky ones that get to live in mom’s basement have i-phones and cheez doodles to keep them fat and happy.
The other ones without basements because mom got laid off or is underemployed and living with 4 kids in a 1BR apartment will be flash-mobbing soon in a location near you!
In record-setting numbers, young adults struggling to find work are shunning long-distance moves to live with mom and dad, delaying marriage and buying fewer homes
If you’re gonna be poor anyway, might as well do it with the people you love.
I was always amazed how people would pick up everything and move across the country for a job - especially at-will employment. Now they’re laid off, a thousand miles from family, and stuck in a mortgage that’s underwater.
My mantra was always to never acquire more in life than you can fit in a 15′ Budget rental truck, and never live a lifestyle that you can’t sustain on ten bucks an hour.
+1, hamster. Good rule to live by.
Ten years ago those were choices (which some of us made), today they’re a matter of survival for many.
In DC you would be living either 6 people to a two-bed apartment, or on the street. Rent is more expensive than home prices.
Floridians facing foreclosure could lose their homes faster under plan making rounds in Tallahassee
By Kathleen Haughney, Tallahassee Bureau
8:15 p.m. EDT, September 21, 2011
TALLAHASSEE— Floridians facing foreclosure could be stripped of their homes faster and have routine access to the courts limited under a proposal likely to come before Gov. Rick Scott and the Legislature in the coming months.
Bankers see it as a speedy and efficient way to manage foreclosure cases and get tens of thousands of Florida properties in ownership limbo back on the market, helping pull the state out of its economic doldrums.
In contrast, foreclosure defense lawyers and consumer activists see the plan as removing judicial oversight from a system that has proven to be riddled with fraud and abuse, and leaving ordinary homeowners defenseless before some of the state’s most powerful financial interests.
“Obviously there’s a lot of fraud being perpetrated by the banks in these cases,” said Michael Redman, a Palm Beach County resident who founded the Website 4closurefraud.org to chronicle Florida’s ongoing foreclosure crisis. “At this point in the game, it’s almost ridiculous to take it out of the court system.”
But the Florida Bankers Association, which has pushed the plan over the past few years, has key allies. Scott voiced support for the proposal at a Florida Bar convention this summer and told reporters Wednesday he is still interested in it. Some lawmakers have already jumped on board.
“Well, I want to make sure that we have an efficient process, so we don’t create a reason for banks or whoever lends money not to lend money in Florida,” Scott said. “When you talk to people that are in the system now they say it’s 600 days to get through foreclosure. All that does is create another incentive for people to not lend money when we want people to lend money to our state.
“I don’t know the answer yet, but I want to look at the process,” Scott said. “I want to get more information before I make a decision.”
According to RealtyTrac, a foreclosure tracking firm, Florida had the third highest foreclosure rate in the nation and was second in the number of foreclosure cases filed in 2010. On average, the firm said, the foreclosure process takes 676 days.
Usually the lender reclaims possession; other times, homeowners get to keep their property.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/fl-lawmakers-consider-foreclosure-changes-20110921,0,5991530.story - -
If the current set of bankers are for it, that’s a good reason to be against it. Getting foreclosures back on the market sooner is a good thing. But if bankers were really concerned about doing that and had the proper documentation, they could have done it already. The price for passage should be thousands of bankers in jail for fraud.
I understand your point and I disagree. (agree with second point).
In Florida, I estimate there are 30% more houses needed than demanded by the resident population. They were built as investments and made builders, realtors, and the REIC fabulously rich. There are entire neighborhoods with only one or two homes occupied, and other neighborhood with only one or two homes that aren’t for sale or in foreclosure. It’s really a major mess.
I tend to blame the Republicans (of which I am one) for this mess, for not following a smart growth plan, and now having neighborhoods that require all the public infrastructure for which there is no real demand. Combined with CNBC radio ads for $150k bay front condos, selling to the clueless out-of-staters, when the real value is more like $50k.
I suspect the banks are finally coming to the conclusion that this is a decade long correction cycle and just want to dump the inventory for 50% off now, instead of 80% off later when it’s missing pipes and air conditioning units.
Florida existing home sales up 4 percent in August from July, Palm Beach County sales down 1 percent
By Kimberly Miller Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 10:37 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2011
The current estimate of foreclosure cases in state courts is 371,000, according to the state courts administrator.
Florida economist Amy Baker told House lawmakers Tuesday that home values could decline further if clumps of foreclosures crowd the market all at once.
Already, the statewide median sales price in August of $137,500 is about 47 percent below peak pricing during the boom. Palm Beach County’s median sales price in August was $196,900, 52 percent below the August 2005 price of $411,400.
“We know as these foreclosed homes hit the marketplace, they will sell at a discount,” Baker said in a meeting with the House Civil Justice subcommittee Tuesday . “It has a lot to do with how quickly they enter. Is it a flood or spread out over a couple of years?”
Sold in 2006 for 268k, on the market for 50k
80% off!
I’d say great, negotiate it down to $40K and buy it except for this. When the house next door is sold for $30K, and rented out for $300 per month, what sorts of folks will live there?
Eventually the question will be asked — why is the federal government subsidizing the operating costs of public housing in places like NYC, when those who live there could be living just as cheaply in a house somewhere else.
The estimated mortgage payment per month is $227.00 while the property tax per month is $256.52.
That is alot of taxes. I guess the phrase “we all rent from the government” really kicks in on this one.
At least in MD, taxes area reassed every three years. Whoever buys the $50K house will be paying less in taxes very quickly.
Not at all. All the houses will have their assessments drop, but the funding needs of the government will not drop with them. So rates will rise.
From Marketwatch: “The Treasury Department sold $11 billion in 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities on Thursday at a yield of 0.078%, with “huge” demand from a class of investors that includes domestic money managers…Yields on regular 10-year, which move inversely to prices, fell 9 basis points to 1.76%.”
That implies a 1.0% expected inflation rate over a decade, the lowest I’ve seen. Combotechie is looking pretty good right now. If we can’t inflate the debts away, I guess we’ll just have to default them away.
IIRC, the Japanese 10 yr yields ~1% and has for quite some time.
The 15yr. is at it’s lowest rate ever…
ITEM: Rate on 30-year mortgage stays at record 4.09 pct.
Average rate on the 15-year loan falls to 3.29 percent; rates will likely fall lower next week.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Fixed mortgage rates hovered at record lows for a third straight week. They are likely to fall even further now that the Federal Reserve said it would shuffle its holdings to drive down long-term interest rates.
The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage was unchanged at 4.09 percent this week, Freddie Mac said Thursday. That’s the lowest rate seen since 1951.
The average rate on the 15-year mortgage ticked down to 3.29 percent. Economists say that’s the lowest rate ever for the loan.
Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. One day after the Fed’s announcement, the yield on the 10-year note touched 1.74 percent Thursday. That’s the lowest level since Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis started keeping daily records in 1962.
In July, the yield on the 10-year note was above 3 percent.
Low mortgage rates have done little to boost home sales. This year is shaping up to be the worst for sales of previously occupied homes since 1997. Few are buying, even though the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage has been below 5 percent for all but two weeks this year.
Many Americans are in no position to buy or refinance. High unemployment, scant wage gains and large debt loads have kept them away.
Others can’t qualify. Banks are insisting on higher credit scores and 20 percent down payments for first-time buyers. Some homeowners have too little equity invested in their homes to meet loan requirements.
Most people must also pay extra fees to get the low mortgage rates. Those fees are known as points, with one point equaling 1 percent of the total loan amount.
The average fees for the 30-year held steady at 0.7 point. Fees paid on 15-year fixed loans and both 5-year and one-year adjustable-rate loans were all at 0.6 point.
Once fees are factored in, the average rate on the 30-year loan rises to 4.25 percent, Freddie Mac said.
Fed Reserve, masters of the universe. Never mind who might be scrambling to get out of Europe these days.
How many new mortgages are 20% down? Isn’t FedGov still taking all bets?
At the moment, yes. Even if the QRM rule goes into effect, banks are still allowed to sell 100% of a no-down loan to Fannie/Freddie. Whether or not F&F buy the loan is something else.
There is movement in Congress to make F&F adhere to QRM, but I don’t know how that’s going.
I believe that FHA is also exempt. Good thing too. I have my eye on that 3.5% down. Not because I want more house, but because I’d rather use the cash on fix-up.
Trailer manufacturer cutting 106 jobs in Indiana
IBJ Staff - September 22, 2011
Middlebury-based Pace American Enterprises Inc. plans to eliminate 106 jobs at its plant in northeastern Indiana as part of company-wide layoffs.
The manufacturer of cargo trailers notified the Indiana Department of Workforce Development about the job cuts in a letter posted Wednesday.
Many of the layoffs already have occurred, and others are expected at a date to be determined, Pace American said in the notice.
Overall, Pace American has laid off 250 employees at its five locations in Indiana, Georgia, Texas, Utah and Oregon as the company struggles to remain solvent.
U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Indiana granted a request Monday by three creditors of Pace to pursue an involuntary Chapter 7 bankruptcy liquidation. The three are owed a total of nearly $1.3 million, according to court documents.
Middlebury is about 30 miles east of South Bend.
Caterpillar CFO Says U.S. Must Lower Tax Rates to Compete
- Bloomberg
Congress must revamp the U.S. tax code by lowering corporate rates and adopting a territorial system of taxation for overseas profits, said Edward Rapp, group president and chief financial officer of Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
Rapp spoke at a briefing for reporters on Capitol Hill today held by chief financial officers of some big corporations. He said a lower corporate rate is needed so U.S. companies can be competitive globally.
“We need to do a teardown of our corporate tax structure,” said Rapp. Caterpillar is based in Peoria, Illinois.
Rapp suggested that a 25 percent corporate rate, with 20 percent or 21 percent from federal taxes and the remainder from state taxes, would make the U.S. competitive with businesses based in other industrialized countries.
The corporate income tax currently tops out at 35 percent.
In rebuilding the corporate tax code, lawmakers should strive for a lower rate and adopt a territorial system for taxing overseas profits, Rapp said. They should also include incentives for developing intellectual property.
Lawmakers also need to consider questions about the structure of the economy, such as whether they want to foster manufacturing jobs, Rapp said.
Research and Development
Rapp said that although two-thirds of Caterpillar’s sales are outside of the U.S., the bulk of its $2 billion global research and development budget is spent domestically.
“It’s a key part of our global network,” Rapp said.
He didn’t offer details as to what tax expenditures Caterpillar would be willing to give up for a 20 percent or 21 percent U.S. corporate tax rate.
Rapp suggested that lowering rates corporate tax rates could lead to higher tax revenue.
“If you improve competitiveness, do you improve growth that leads to higher revenues?” Rapp asked.
Robin Beran, Caterpillar’s chief tax officer, who also attended the briefing, said “it would be pretty hard to get there on a revenue neutral basis.”
John Buckley, a former House Democratic tax counsel, said in a phone interview today that “you couldn’t get to that rate without increasing the deficit.”
Buckley, now a visiting professor at Georgetown University in Washington, also said lawmakers could choose to target a rate focused more narrowly to manufacturers, who already benefit from a manufacturing tax deduction and in many cases have the ability to move operations offshore.
- greatly reduce the income tax rate on dividends - check.
- greatly reduce the income tax rate on corporate profits - check.
win win for the super rich and the FIRE economy.
Even if the tax rate was 0% they would still offshore to China.
Tariffs are the only solution.
A lot of them already have an effective tax rate of 0%.
Score update:
Cheney-$hrub: 0
lil’ Opie: 4
Libya red-carded for ill-legal non-sportsmanship.
Perry & Shrub Yell for the NATO Cheerleaders!
“Give us a drone! Give us a zone! Give us a social-media $mart phone!”
Libya military site yields possible radioactive material
By the CNN Wire Staff / September 22, 2011
Tripoli, Libya (CNN) — A military site containing what appears to be radioactive material has been uncovered by revolutionary forces near the southern Libyan city of Sabha.
The site, not far from Sabha in the Sahara desert, has two warehouses containing thousands of blue barrels marked with tape saying “radioactive,” and plastic bags of yellow powder sealed with the same tape.
The material has not been confirmed as being radioactive, but in 2004 the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that the Libyan government had yellowcake stored in Sabha.
Yellowcake is processed uranium ore that can be used to produce enriched uranium for nuclear purposes.
So unlike Iraq Lybia had wmd?
Materials of mass pollution?
Maybe it’s yellow cake mix.
Euro-zone PMI drop stokes recession fears
Survey points to September contraction in manufacturing, services
FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — Activity across the euro-zone manufacturing and service sectors contracted in September, according to a closely followed survey of purchasing managers released Thursday, stoking fears the 17-nation region could slip into recession as it struggles with a sovereign debt crisis and an uncertain global economic outlook.
Markit Economics said its preliminary composite purchasing managers index dropped to 49.2 from 50.7 in August, marking the first time since July 2009 the index came in below the 50 level. A reading of less than 50 indicates a contraction in activity, while a reading of more than 50 signals growth.
“The fall in the euro-zone composite PMI below the theoretical 50 ‘no-change’ barrier provides the strongest sign yet that the region is on the cusp of a recession,” said Ben May, European economist at Capital Economics.
U.S. to build new massive prison in Bagram
By Glenn Greenwald
As the Obama administration announced plans for hundreds of billions of dollars more in domestic budget cuts, it late last week solicited bids for the construction of a massive new prison in Bagram, Afghanistan. Posted on the aptly named FedBizOps.Gov website which it uses to announce new privatized spending projects, the administration unveiled plans for “the construction of Detention Facility in Parwan (DFIP), Bagram, Afghanistan” which includes “detainee housing capability for approximately 2000 detainees.” It will also feature “guard towers, administrative facility and Vehicle/Personnel Access Control Gates, security surveillance and restricted access systems.” The announcement provided: “the estimated cost of the project is between $25,000,000 to $100,000,000.”
In the U.S., prisons are so wildly overcrowded that courts are ordering them to release inmates en masse because conditions are so inhumane as to be unconstitutional (today, the FBI documented that a drug arrest occurs in the U.S. once every 19 seconds, but as everyone knows, only insane extremists and frivolous potheads advocate an end to that war). In the U.S., budgetary constraints are so severe that entire grades are being eliminated, the use of street lights restricted, and the most basic services abolished for the nation’s neediest. But the U.S. proposes to spend up to $100 million on a sprawling new prison in Afghanistan.
I am not a pot head. I do not even drink alcohol.
I am in favor of decriminalization of drugs.
I guess I’m an insane extremist…. Or I can see that hundreds of billions of dollars has done nothing except increase the profit margin, and therefore the violence, of street gangs.
I’ve partaken of the funny smoke. And I inhaled deeply and enjoyed it. Last puff of the stuff was back in 1984, and no, I don’t miss it.
But I do favor the decriminalization of pot.
Somebody explain to me how “decriminalizing” stuff like meth and crack is going to help anything.
Although I suppose you could make the case that it would have the Darwin effect, i.e. cleaning up the gene pool a lot sooner.
Somebody explain to me how “decriminalizing” stuff like meth and crack is going to help anything.
It won’t. I think that those two drugs should remain illegal.
But pot? Decriminalize the stuff.
I agree with you. In the meantime, while you’re posting about drugs, I and surely others have been waiting for you to respond to b-hamster’s post made at 09:04:14, which went:
“Never acquire more in life than you can fit in a 15′ Budget rental truck, and never live a lifestyle that you can’t sustain on ten bucks an hour.”
In the U.S., prisons are so wildly overcrowded that courts are ordering them to release inmates en masse because conditions are so inhumane as to be unconstitutional (today, the FBI documented that a drug arrest occurs in the U.S. once every 19 seconds, but as everyone knows, only insane extremists and frivolous potheads advocate an end to that war). In the U.S., budgetary constraints are so severe that entire grades are being eliminated, the use of street lights restricted, and the most basic services abolished for the nation’s neediest. But the U.S. proposes to spend up to $100 million on a sprawling new prison in Afghanistan.
Bingo. You hit the nail smack-dab on the head.
It will also feature “guard towers, administrative facility and Vehicle/Personnel Access Control Gates, security surveillance and restricted access systems.” The announcement provided: “the estimated cost of the project is between $25,000,000 to $100,000,000.”
Tough decisions for the “one”
Bail out huge campaign donation solar panel manufacturer for 1 year for $500 million or build 5-20 supermax prisons in Afghanistan…
Hope and change boyz…
How much more cost-effective to spend that $100M in D.C. to build a wall around the pols who keep voting funds to KBR/Halliburton….
“As the Obama administration announced plans for hundreds of billions of dollars more in domestic budget cuts, it late last week solicited bids for the construction of a massive new prison in Bagram, Afghanistan.”
Looks like we are staying longer to imprison Israel’s enemies.
How much longer to go before Operation Twist restores confidence?
Countdown to the close: 0:40:21
Dow off as much as 485 points
Wall St. train wreck
U.S. stocks succumb to global swoon as investors find little to cheer in the macroeconomic backdrop.
“Pope Benedict XVI told the German parliament on Thursday that politicians must not sacrifice ethics for power,…”
Is this another way of saying that Germany must bail-out its neighbors who lack financial self control?
Is anyone on the board involved with or observing the so-called 99%-ers occupying Wall Street?
Does this have the potential of becoming a populist movement like the Bonus Army of the Great Depression?
If you listen to Democracy Now, it’s gotten well beyond the occupation stage. This is well on the way to becoming a movement.
Am hoping this one doesn’t go the way of the FIRST TeaParty and get co-opted by corporate/unionist interests.
Wow, the history books never told me about that :-).
TeaParty, not Tea Party. But point taken. The first was a union AGAINST a corporation, not the other way around.
I’ve tried to pay attention, but the media isn’t making that easy for me.
No, but they’ve made a couple of mistakes. For one thing, none of the megabanks are on Wall Street anymore.
Not to mention the fact that many of the hedge funds are located in and around Greenwich, CT.
But aren’t the major investment banks still on or near The Street?
The president’s jobs bill is designed for “immediate” highway spending.
And the new $2.3 billion Cincy bridge is not scheduled to even start construction for probably four years, long after Republicans have scheduled the Obama presidency for completion.
And without delays, it wouldn’t be finished until 2022, when no one will be counting Obama’s rounds of golf.
Politicians hate these kinds of messy distractions when they pick a place to make a symbolic statement. But Brent Spence was so tempting linking, as it does, the home states of GOP House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell
…..out of touch,hopefully out of time………..
Will the bull stampede over the edge of a cliff extend to a fifth straight day tomorrow?
Sept. 22, 2011, 2:29 p.m. EDT
U.S. stocks dive on Europe, growth worries
Federated’s Orlando watches 1,100 level on the S&P 500
By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks dove on Thursday, extending losses for the S&P 500 Index into a fourth day, as Wall Street’s worry about Europe’s debt trouble and the global economy intensified.
The negative sentiment taking hold among investors is “driven by the bank runs in Europe, and some of the European banks are rumored to be looking in the Middle East for capital; it’s like a replay of 2008 for some of the U.S. banks,” said Charlie Smith, chief investment officer at Fort Pitt Capital.
Smith also points to Europe’s solvency issues, saying Greece is not a major issue, given “it’s only 2% of the euro zone, but Italy would be.”
…
Market Pulse Archives
Sept. 22, 2011, 3:44 p.m. EDT
Volatility gauge soars on global fears
By Shawn Langlois
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index jumped 16% on Thursday, heading toward its fourth daily rally in a row. The double-digit gain in the volatility gauge reflects growing concerns over global economic woes. The move is the biggest jump in more than a month. The VIX soared 50% on August 8 and another 35% on August 18. The gauge has almost doubled in the past year.
Funny coincidence: Today’s low on the DJIA exactly matches the 52-week low.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJI: DJIA 10,735.60
Change -389.24 -3.50%
Volume 263.81m
Sep 22, 2011 4:00 p.m.
Previous close 11,124.84
Day low 10,597.14
Day high 11,122.12
Open: 11,121.89
52 week low 10,597.14
52 week high 12,876.00
You’d think it would require a computer to hit it that precisely…
Not sure if this is clear, but today HIT a new (intraday) 52-week low.
Other than certain HBB posters (including me), I haven’t seen many MSM commentaries suggest it may be decades before the U.S. economy rights itself. Perhaps the MSM-favored ‘experts’ are finally starting to catch on, and working their way out of the denial phase of the Housing Bubble Stages of Grief?
Time to pull in expectations for a decade or two
September 22, 2011, 2:18 PM
Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates told financial advisers to reshape their return expectations dramatically for the coming decade and beyond.
Speaking at the Morningstar ETF Invest Conference in Chicago, Arnott laid out his case for future stock and bond returns, noting that the average return in bonds over the last 30 years was 9% and the average annualized return on Standard & Poor’s 500 stocks over the same period was 11%.
Accounting not only for current conditions but additional factors, Arnott said 2% to 4% is a reasonable expectation for bonds – though he hinted strongly that he believes it will be in the lower end of that range – and that 4% to 6% is a “reasonable return expectation” for stocks for the next 10 to 20 years.
To squeeze anything more than that out of the markets, Arnott said investors will need to be increasingly tactical, trading into markets that are unloved and undervalued and being prepared to leave markets that have gotten overheated, and considering alternative strategies that can supplement the baseline stock and bond market returns.
- Chuck Jaffe
Accounting not only for current conditions but additional factors, Arnott said 2% to 4% is a reasonable expectation for bonds – though he hinted strongly that he believes it will be in the lower end of that range – and that 4% to 6% is a “reasonable return expectation” for stocks for the next 10 to 20 years.
I’ve based my financial life on the above returns. Matter of fact, I’m of the mind that anything over 5% is gravy — and temporary gravy at that.
So now we’re going back to enjoying the benifits of cash itself rather than the benfits that the return on cash used to offer.
Which makes cash sort of the king, does it not?
If the returns on cash are not there then that means the expansion of cash in the System is not there. And if the expansion of cash in the System is not there then that means there will be a shortage of the stuff.
Many will demand cash but there will not be enough cash to satisify all these demands, so many will have to do without.
Those who are long on assets but short of cash are lucky because they will be able to trade their assets for cash - assuming they can find a buyer for their assets, can find someone who is willing to trade scarce cash for plentiful assets.
But as for the others, the ones who need cash but have no assets to trade for the stuff? Alas, Interesting Times await them.
Next to having a pile of cash at hand a wonderful and necessary thing for one to have going for himself is a method of getting cash - as in having a good paying job. Which is another thing that is growing scarce.
“To squeeze anything more than that out of the markets, Arnott said investors will need to be increasingly tactical, trading into markets that are unloved and undervalued and being prepared to leave markets that have gotten overheated, and considering alternative strategies that can supplement the baseline stock and bond market returns.”
And those avenues are mostly off limits to all of the people stuck with crappy 401k plans.
I’m wondering how Pimco’s Bill Gross feels by now about his decision earlier this year to get out of U.S. Treasurys?
Sept. 22, 2011, 4:06 p.m. EDT
Treasurys surge; 30-year bond jumps most since ’08
U.S. sees ‘huge’ demand at inflation-linked auction
By Deborah Levine and Laura Mandaro, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices rallied Thursday, sending 30-day yields to their biggest two-day drop since the depth of the financial crisis in late 2008, as global equities got hammered in reaction to the prior session’s Federal Reserve announcement and a round of weak global economic data.
The longest-term debt sold by the U.S. got the biggest benefit from a surprise that the Fed would buy a huge chunk of the security’s supply through June.
An intense bid for safety drove Treasury prices sharply higher despite the latest U.S. economic report showing weekly jobless claims falling more than expected. Matt Phillips reports on the Markets Hub.
Yields on the 10-year Treasury (10_YEAR -7.66%), which move inversely to prices, fell 15 basis points to 1.71%, setting a new record.
Yields on the 30-year bond (30_YEAR -6.45%) dropped 20 basis points to 2.78%, the biggest one-day drop since May 2010.
…
Not mentioned in the article (unless I missed it): By my back-o-the-envelope calculation, that 6.45% “drop” in the 30-yr T-bond yield translated into roughly a 4% 1-day gain for holders of existing 30-yr Treasurys, as yields move inversely to price.
Not sure I did my calculations right, but for instance, you can calculate the semi-annual coupon on a $1000 30-yr bond yielding 2.98% as 2.98%*$1000/2 = $14.90. The present value of that coupon paid at the end of each six-month period for thirty years plus the return of $1000 at the end of the term would, of course, be $1000.
But if the yield drops to 2.78%, as it did today, the semi-annual coupon would stay the same, but its value would increase to the present value of $14.90 paid semi-annually for 60 periods at a discount rate of 2.78%/2 = 1.39%, which is $603.71. And the present value of $1000 discounted at 1.39% over 60 periods is
$1000/(1+1.39/100)^60 = $436.81. So for a holder of a $1000 (new) 30-year Treasury as of close of business yesterday, the value increased to $603.71 + $436.81 = $1040.52 as of today — a 4%+ gain.
Please check my arithmetic if you like, as I don’t claim any special expertise in calculating the value of Treasurys.
“I don’t claim any special expertise in calculating the value of Treasurys.”
I also am rather modest, though…
Luckily the real estate market is decoupled from Wall Street; otherwise this recent stock market calamity might be worrisome for real estate investors who have yet to exit their money-losing positions.
Global Selloff: Is this Just the Beginning?
Sept. 22, 2011
WSJ’s Francesco Guerrera looks at reach and depth of the global stock market selloff, and the deepening negative market sentiment. AFP PHOTO/Karen BLEIER
This video clarifies that unlike QE, Operation Twist does not put any new gambling chips into the hands of Wall Street traders. Small wonder The Street is dumping stocks like they did toxic mortgage bonds a few years back.
Meg Whitman, new HP CEO.
What the…?
Looks like this a good time to short HP. Methinks she’s going to be about as effective as Czarly Fiorina was.
HP’ers better polish up their resumes, as I expect mass layoffs and more offshoring.
If HP’s stock goes any lower they could become a takeover target.
Hmmm, who could take them over and do a good job? Texas Instruments?
Michael Dell.
Does Dell want a giant consulting firm (EDS) with crap products (HP)?
“Meg Whitman, new HP CEO.”
California voters were far smarter than the HP Board in staying far, far away from Carly and Meg. What a horrible time to be an HP employee with Meg the “reward” for enduring Carly.
The Hillsborough County school district is good at landing grants. The latest: The U.S. Department of Education is giving them $306,258 under its Transition to Teaching program to recruit new teachers from outside the education field. The School District of Palm Beach will get a similar grant for $420,107.
Transition to Teaching supports efforts to recruit mid-career professionals and recent graduates with degrees outside education and help them become teachers through alternative certification routes. The program aims to place these teachers in high-need schools. “Talented teachers come from all walks of life, and life experiences can enhance a teacher’s abilities in the classroom and rapport with students,” said U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan.
Transition to Teaching projects are funded for five years and are expected to certify about 4,800 new teachers nationwide. Candidates must teach in high-need schools for at least three years. Specialty areas include science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM), special education and bilingual or English as a Second Language.
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/gradebook/content/federal-teacher-recruitment-grant-goes-hillsborough
Muggy did you know this teacher?
Probation ends for teacher who had sex with student
The Associated Press
Posted: 3:41 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 22, 2011
TAMPA, Fla. — Middle-school teacher turned sex-offender Debra Lafave is off probation.
A judge in Tampa decided Thursday to end the 31-year-old former teacher’s probation four years early. She had served two years of house arrest and was scheduled to remain on probation until November 2015 for having sex with a 14-year-old student in a case that made tabloid headlines around the world.
Lafave pleaded guilty in 2005. Her attorney said she had a psychiatric condition that affected her judgment.
The judge’s ruling means she no longer must observe a 10 p.m. to 6 a.m. curfew, and can travel anywhere outside the area.
Lafave is a new mother of twins and is living with her fiancée.
The victim is now 21. His sister said he is still getting psychiatric care.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/state/probation-ends-for-teacher-who-had-sex-with-1873557.html - -
23 COMMENTS (none of them mine)
My favorite teacher of all time.
no unions
4:07 PM, 9/22/2011
I think of all the education that I missed…
But then again, my homework was never quite like this…
All right!
Glen Quagmire
4:10 PM, 9/22/2011
The “victim” is 21 and getting psychiatric care? I dunno, where were all the teachers like this when I was 15? Doesn’t seem too traumatizing to me.
buzzard
4:10 PM, 9/22/2011
Is She still teaching?
How can I have her phone number?
I want to be her new biology student.
alittlebithoney
4:21 PM, 9/22/2011
No, but I know a few of the other ones that have made the news It’s a 100% people business so you get the whole spectrum. Even after just a few years you get to know hundreds, maybe thousands of people.
Somewhat related: I hope everyone can stay cool when the Anthony jury names are released.
It’s a 100% people business so you get the whole spectrum. Even after just a few years you get to know hundreds, maybe thousands of people.
You’re echoing my mother’s experience. After just a few years in the classroom, she became like the ultimate networker. It was truly something to behold.
Nowadays, you should see her go to the grocery store. She works that place like a politician.
BTW, Jeff, I live and work in Pinellas.
“Talented teachers come from all walks of life, and life experiences can enhance a teacher’s abilities in the classroom and rapport with students”
BTW, I don’t totally agree with this. Some of the worst teachers share too much too often with their students.
If there are any of you sciency types thinking about it, give it a shot. Dedicating my life to education has been very rewarding.
You want some real yield? Take a look at this vintage 2007 MBS. I have no idea how many millions or billions are inside that security but if you snap it up right now it’s only $1.77 cents per $100.
http://www.markit.com/en/products/data/indices/structured-finance-indices/abx/abx-prices.page?
“…only $1.77 cents per $100.”
Most impressive — even worse than the 98% collapse in the dollar relative to gold over the past 30 years, but over a much shorter time span.
New Clee arh waste…..will we ever find out who holds this wonderful security?
ComboTechie — this article is for you!
U.S. dollar is king
Weakening growth for the euro zone and China, and inability of other currencies to absorb large inflows mean there are few havens for investors.
What about me?! Any box wine news?
Useless, worthless, unbacked fiats …
Hey, what hapened to gold today? I thought gold was the only money.
And silver? What’s up with silver?
The Precious™ ain’t all that no more…
Breaking Up Is Hard To Do Lyrics
Artist: Neil Sedaka
Foreclosures goin down doo-be-doo down down
Foreclosures goin down doo-be-doo down down
Paying Rent Is Hard To Do
Don’t take my house away from me
Don’t you leave my heart in misery
If I go then I’ll be blue
‘Cause paying rent is hard to do
Remember when you let me slide
And I think we both enjoyed the ride
Think of all that we’ve been through
Paying Rent Is Hard To Do
They say that paying rent is hard to do
Now I know, I know that it’s true
Don’t say that this is the end
Instead of paying rent I wish that I was living free again
I beg of you, don’t say goodbye
Can’t we give our loan another try
Come on bank, let’s start a new
‘Cause paying rent is hard to do
Foreclosures goin down doo-be-doo down down
Foreclosures goin down doo-be-doo down down
Paying Rent Is Hard To Do
Jeff, you mentioned your landlord is an FB/deadbeat. Why not tell him your rent is now $1,000
Do you really think he would spend the time/money to get a lawyer to go after you?
I tried that with this LL, shortly after we moved in I got a letter from a law firm with my name as tennant saying the house was in foreclosure and the mortgage had not been paid. I told the LL I would pay a reduced rate and they said you can move out. About a month later they got their motgage workout after not paying for 11 months. FF to last month I recieved a letter from the bank addressed to my LL, I accidently opened it. It said they were 2 months behind and if the entire amount was not paid they would accelerate the mortgage. I also found out that they did get a payment reduction to $1,400 a month on a $300k loan ($150k purchase + $150k refi) with propery tax included (saw that on county records). Anyway, at $1,700 a month in this area for a single family house it`s about the best I can do. There is someone across the street paying $2,000 a month and section 8 2/2 townhomes going for $1,400. There are houses I would buy sitting empty but until this BS breaks or this LL goes into foreclosure again, I`m stuck.
This was in the local rag yesterday so I will hope for the flood.
Florida economist Amy Baker told House lawmakers Tuesday that home values could decline further if clumps of foreclosures crowd the market all at once.
Already, the statewide median sales price in August of $137,500 is about 47 percent below peak pricing during the boom. Palm Beach County’s median sales price in August was $196,900, 52 percent below the August 2005 price of $411,400.
“We know as these foreclosed homes hit the marketplace, they will sell at a discount,” Baker said in a meeting with the House Civil Justice subcommittee Tuesday . “It has a lot to do with how quickly they enter. Is it a flood or spread out over a couple of years?”
There goes the neighborhood!
http://www.tampabay.com/news/environment/article1192834.ece
“Farner, 59, got no closer than 10 feet.”
Wanna race? LOL.
Sept. 22, 2011, 12:15 p.m. EDT
The 3% mortgage and the banks
Commentary: What if the Fed’s ‘Operation Twist’ works?
By MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Thursday’s bloodshed on Wall Street took bank stocks down with it, but not as much as you might have expected given their reputation as bottom feeders.
…
Despite a sizable drop in San Diego housing prices since the Housing Bubble popped, 30-year-high rates of San Diego County poverty suggest the affordable housing problem is worse than ever.
Poverty rate in county hits 30-year high
Children wait in line to get free snacks from Heaven’s Window. Heaven’s Window is a part of New Seasons Church in Spring Valley which provides free snacks for children and food for families from the neighborhood.
Willie Martinez, who has been out of work for three years, fills out a job application at the Employment Development Department. — K.C. Alfred
More county residents faced financial hardship last year than at any other time in the past three decades, a record reflected in the poverty rate’s sharp rise and stagnating median household incomes, according to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The local poverty rate grew to 14.8 percent in 2010, up from 12.6 in 2009 and 11 percent mid-decade, according to the bureau’s yearly American Community Survey.
Median household income fell below $60,000 for the first time in five years, sinking to $59,923 in 2010. That’s down from a high of nearly $65,000 in 2007.
Today’s release of local census numbers offers further proof of the financial toll fueled by the prolonged economic slump and high rate of joblessness. The figures mirror national and statewide trends of amplified poverty and shrinking household budgets.
Today’s release of local census numbers offers further proof of the financial toll fueled by the prolonged economic slump and high rate of joblessness. The figures mirror national and statewide trends of amplified poverty and shrinking household budgets.
…
2010 poverty, income and health insurance
14.8 percent San Diego County poverty rate
13 percent: California poverty rate
446,060: Number of county residents living in poverty
5,783,04: Number of Californians living in poverty
11.6 percent: Child poverty rate in San Diego County
$59,923:Median household income in San Diego County
$57,708: Median household income in California
17.6: Percentage of population in San Diego County without healthcare coverage
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Sept. 21, 2011, 6:06 p.m. EDT
‘Twist Again’ Ben’s political master stroke
Commentary: Fed’s boxed into a corner
By David Callaway, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, under fire from both Democrats and Republicans, achieved a political master stroke Wednesday on par with President Barack Obama and only a few other politicians in modern history — executing a plan that makes nobody happy.
It’s The Twist
The Fed decided on Wednesday to start a new program to twist the yield curve by swapping $400 billion of short-term debt with longer-term maturities. The Fed said it acted in light of a worsening global outlook. There were three dissents from the move.
The Fed’s decision to “twist” the yield curve on government bonds to keep interest rates low upset the markets because it was not deemed enough of a stimulus to revive the economy. It irritated Republicans who had demanded he do nothing to help the economy. And it will likely infuriate Democrats looking to gain control of the nation’s central bank.
In short, the Fed just spent one of its last precious silver bullets to fight against global financial calamity and was rewarded by a massive sell-off in stocks and commodities, a rally in bonds that sent yields of the 10-year note to a record low, and a rush to the beleaguered dollar as investors looked for somewhere to hide.
…
Stop calling it class warfare
By Robert Reich Marketplace, Wednesday, September 21, 2011
President Obama announced a plan to reduce the deficit this week. But the fight over what to do is just starting.
Kai Ryssdal: President Obama went to the United Nations today. In amongst his thoughts on the Israeli Palestinian question were some suggestions about the global economy: Urgent and coordinated action is what the White House wants.
As you know, the administration released its plan to cut the deficit earlier this week, which has brought us straight back to the same old narrative: taxes or spending cuts?
And that brings us to commentator Robert Reich.
…
Stock markets tumble on fears of recession
By Stacey Vanek-Smith
Marketplace, Thursday, September 22, 2011
Global stock markets tumbled a day after the Federal Reserve, justifying its latest moves, cited “significant downside risks” to the U.S. economy.
A trader works on the floor of the NYSE
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on Sept. 22, 2011 in New York City. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 337 points within the first 10 minutes of trading as the global economy struggles and investors continue to lose confidence. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
Bob Moon: A day I can sum up in one word: Ugh. Investors were grunting today over plunging stocks, oil, even gold. Prices of seemingly everything except U.S. Treasury bonds tumbled around the world. There was worrying economic data out of China. And a French official was quoted as saying 16 European banks will be ordered to shore up their cash reserves at once.
Mostly, though, yesterday’s move by the Fed to prime the U.S. economic pump seems to have done more immediate harm than good. As Stacey Vanek Smith reports, the Fed’s words spoke louder than its actions.
Stacey Vanek Smith: The Federal Reserve unveiled Operation Twist yesterday, but today it was the “why” that had investors worried.
Jack Ablin is chief investment officer for Harris Private Bank.
The Fed’s exact words were: “There are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.” That’s Fed-speak for: The economy is looking worse. And the plan itself — buying $400 billion worth of long-term bonds — may not do much to change that.
Investment adviser Gary Shilling calls it:
At a time when there is no shortage of economic threats — unemployment, a depressed housing market, political gridlock, not to mention the situation in Europe. Fear that all of those things will lead to another recession is what’s really plaguing the markets, says Georgetown finance professor James Angel.
Angel says investors were looking for reassurance from the Fed yesterday.
A signal confirming investor’s fears. A little bit like the Fed saying, ‘Actually America, that dress does make you look fat.’
It’s time for America to get a Muumuu and just accept its fate.
On the brink of government shutdown — again
By David Gura Marketplace, Thursday, September 22, 2011
This time Congress is fighting over how to pay for disaster relief. If they can’t agree, the lights go out Oct. 1. Businesses worry this might be the new normal.
Bob Moon: Don’t bother stopping me, ’cause I know we’ve heard this one before: Congress is scrambling to avoid a government shutdown.
This has already played out — and been narrowly averted — twice this year. Now, lawmakers are paralyzed over how to pay for disaster relief. Congress is on recess next week. So if there’s no agreement over this weekend, the federal lights go out on October 1st. Which has businesses wondering and worrying anew whether total government dysfunction is now the new normal.
…
How Rick Perry courts the Zionist vote
http://tinyurl.com/3gem8fd
Prepare to bend your knee to God and a King.
No thanks.
A Christian voice here. This is wrong from so many angles. If we bow to the Creator, it is so stupid to do so through a man. “Dominion” is not the theology of honest men. it is plain and simple narcisissim. Let them fly any flag they want. Only fools follow.
Sept. 23, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT
Is market replaying decade of the 1930s?
Commentary: March 2009 low might be analogous to July 1932’s
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Playing a script from the 1930s?
If we only could be so lucky …
Some in the investment arena have been drawing analogies to the 1930s for several years now, of course. While such speculation died down somewhat when the market was behaving well in 2010 and early this year, it has returned with a gusto in recent weeks, owing to the stock market’s extraordinary weakness — including another 3.5% decline on Thursday of this week alone for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA -2.49%).
But drawing analogies is more of an art than a science, especially when you are picking and choosing from a decade like the 1930s. Contrary to the popular imagination, which regards that decade as one unremitting horror show, the 1930s actually contained one of U.S. history’s most powerful bull markets.
So, depending on how you draw an analogy between today’s market and the 1930s, you can paint either a very bullish or an extremely bearish picture.
Let’s take a close look at the bull market that began on March 9, 2009. Through the market’s high this past spring, the Dow had gained close to 100% in a little more than two years’ time.
Is there any rally during the 1930s that comes close to being analogous? Some have suggested the one that began in November 1929, which basically was little more than a dead-cat bounce following the stock market crash in September and October of that year. But that rally lasted just five months, during which the Dow rose just 48%.
I admit that I’m not an expert in the analogy-drawing department, but that rally that began in late 1929 does not appear to be very analogous.
Another rally that is perhaps more comparable is the one that began in July 1932. It lasted nearly five years, and during it the Dow more than quadrupled.
…
REAL ESTATE
SEPTEMBER 23, 2011
Housing Slump Hits New Mortgage Loans
By NICK TIMIRAOS and ALAN ZIBEL
Mortgage lending declined last year amid weak demand and tight credit standards, with particularly sharp credit contractions in neighborhoods with many foreclosures, according to the Federal Reserve.
In its annual analysis of mortgage data provided by thousands of financial institutions, the Fed found that lenders originated 7.9 million mortgages in 2010, down 12% from 2009. The only year they were lower in the past decade was 2008, when they hit 7.2 million. The Fed analyzed data from more than 7,900 mortgage lenders that are reported to regulators under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act.
The report found that declines in lending were “notably larger” in neighborhoods that have been hardest-hit by foreclosures and price declines. Many of those neighborhoods saw high concentrations of subprime and other exotic mortgages during the housing boom.
The lending drop in distressed areas stems in part from declines in loans to borrowers who don’t use the homes as their primary residences, often investors. But the report also found a rising concentration of lower-income borrowers in those communities. Higher-income borrowers accounted for just 29% of all loans in those distressed neighborhoods last year, compared with 52% of loans in those neighborhoods in 2005. In less-distressed neighborhoods, higher-income borrowers accounted for half of all loans in 2005 and 43% of loans last year.
The changing income pattern in the hardest-hit areas could further hamper the economic recovery of communities that have seen big price declines and a high level of foreclosures.
…
Fed: Tight credit, lack of equity hurt refinancing
By Derek Kravitz
AP Real Estate Writer / September 22, 2011
WASHINGTON—About 2.3 million homeowners could have refinanced their mortgages last year if they didn’t owe more than their homes were worth or if lending standards weren’t so strict, according to a Federal Reserve study released Thursday.
Long-term mortgage rates are near record lows and have been below 5 percent for all but two weeks this year. The average rate on a 30-year fixed loan is now 4.09 percent.
But lenders typically require homeowners to have equity in their homes to refinance. And many lenders are approving only borrowers with high credit scores.
Roughly 22.5 percent of homeowners, or about 11 million, are “underwater” — they owe more than their homes are worth — according to CoreLogic, a real estate data research firm.
The figures don’t show how many of the homeowners obtained loans during the housing boom, when lending standards were often lax. Many lenders offered loans to people with poor credit, no employment checks and little or no money down.
The Fed said about 4.5 million refinancing applications were approved last year. In a healthy housing market, that figure would be nearly 34 percent higher, it said.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency has said it’s reviewing a program it launched two years ago to see if it might be expanded to let more homeowners qualify. The program, called Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP, lets people whose homes are underwater by up to 20 percent refinance at lower rates.
But to be approved for the program, homeowners must be current on their mortgages, which must date from 2009 or later.
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Price of Greek bailout is swingeing job cuts
Lenders want to see as many as 150,000 redundancies over four years with 25,000 with immediate effect
Helena Smith in Athens
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 20 September 2011 15.36 EDT
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How did pumping up housing become part of the Fed’s mandate?
Analysis: Housing market to limp along, government hands tied
By Margaret Chadbourn
WASHINGTON | Thu Sep 22, 2011 6:16pm EDT
(Reuters) - The Fed’s twist will help, but it won’t be enough to turn around the troubled U.S. housing sector.
Ditto for Washington’s other plans to help homeowners.
The Federal Reserve surprised investors on Wednesday when it said it would help keep mortgage interest rates low by reinvesting proceeds from past purchases of housing debt into government-backed mortgage securities. The program is part of the Fed’s latest easing initiative, which investors dubbed “Operation Twist,” after a similar program in the 1960s.
Frustrations are growing in Washington that efforts to revive housing have failed in the face of high unemployment and rampant foreclosures that have ravaged home prices.
“They are trying to do anything they can to pump up the housing market,” said Bert Ely, a banking consultant and chief executive officer of the firm Ely & Co., in Alexandria, Virginia. “This may have some slight positive impact at the margin, but it’s not salvation.”
Investors in mortgage bonds have worried about talks between the White House and federal housing regulators to try to spur refinancing efforts.
The Obama administration is considering two proposals: increasing refinancing options for troubled borrowers, and clearing the overhang of foreclosed properties on the market by renting out the large stock of repossessed homes.
After more than three years of trying to remedy one of the root causes of the U.S. recession and the slow economic recovery, the administration has largely exhausted efforts involving tax credits, mortgage modification programs, government-backed loans and other tools intended to keep home values up and help delinquent borrowers avoid foreclosure.
The prevailing view of the White House economic team has been that any aggressive remedies would cause at least as many problems as they solved.
“Housing finance is in some ways the trickiest policy challenge we face on the domestic front today, given the complexities, the number of industries involved, and the degree of importance…to the economy,” James Parrott, senior adviser at the White House’s National Economic Council, told the North Carolina Bankers Association at a conference this week.
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Are more treason charges on the way from the Tea Party fringe?
Editorial
The Fed Defies the G.O.P.
Published: September 22, 2011
Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, showed courage facing down powerful Republicans on Wednesday and pressing forward with his efforts to spur economic growth by pushing down long-term interest rates to lower the borrowing costs of businesses and families.
Republicans in Congress and on the campaign trail are now steadfastly opposing every government effort to pull the economy from the mire. There is no economic sense or logic to their position, which makes it look as if they want to stall the economy for the 2012 election.
The modest economic recovery that started last year is petering out. Job growth has stalled; consumer and business confidence have plummeted; the housing market is moribund. If anything, the Fed’s plan is timid. It will sell $400 billion in short-term Treasury securities to buy an equal amount of long term bonds, hoping to reduce long-term interest rates and give businesses the incentive to borrow and invest. And it will keep buying mortgages.
But interest rates can’t go much lower. Before the Fed’s announcement, the rate on 10-year Treasury bonds was below 2 percent. Businesses are not investing because they don’t have customers; and the housing market is hamstrung by tight lending standards.
Fed policy should be more aggressive — buying bonds on a larger scale. It can print money at will to do so, pouring cash into the economy to encourage businesses to invest. The Fed’s efforts may not be the best way to help the weak economy. More stimulus spending by the Obama administration would be much more effective. But the country would be worse off without the Fed’s actions. Republicans should pass Mr. Obama’s jobs program and should be encouraging Fed intervention.
Instead, on Monday, the top four Republicans in Congress sent a letter urging Mr. Bernanke to refrain from further bond purchases. It claimed that prior Fed efforts had neither created jobs nor assisted the economic recovery, and then it contradicted itself by saying that Fed actions would weaken the dollar and promote consumer borrowing, both of which tend to boost growth.
The Republican presidential candidates have nothing constructive to add. On Monday, Gov. Rick Perry of Texas attacked Mr. Obama’s plan to raise $1.5 trillion in tax revenues over the next decade because it “penalizes investment when it is needed most.” A few weeks earlier, he branded Mr. Bernanke a traitor for trying to lower long-term interest rates and stimulate investment.
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Chubby Checker weighs in on Fed’s ‘Twist’
Music legend Chubby Checker talks with CNBC about the Fed’s “Operation Twist.”
By Martin Wolk
CNBC normally books professional investors, economists and analysts to comment on Federal Reserve actions but Wednesday turned to an unusual source: music legend Chubby Checker.
That is because the Fed’s latest effort to stimulate the economy, announced earlier in the day, is known as “Operation Twist” after Checker’s smash hit 1960 song.
“I am ecstatic that you’re calling me,” Checker said in the phone interview.
“We are selling short and buying long,” he said, in an accurate summation of the Fed’s new strategy. “The Twist has always meant money for everybody.”
“The Twist” was a No. 1 song and dance craze in 1961, when the Fed first tried the strategy of selling short-term securities and buying long-term securities in an effort to stimulate economic activity by bringing down longer-term interest rates. With the economy mired in a sluggish recovery and short-term rates already pushed down to near-zero, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reached deep into the tool bag to try the novel strategy again.
Checker also offered his own economic stimulus plan. Asked how he invests his money, Checker said, “I make sure I put it right back in the economy.”
“We make a lot of money, and we spend a lot of money. … It’s just money.”
Monetary moves have lost their magic
Reuters Sep 22, 2011 – 4:51 PM ET
By Edward Hadas
Financial markets are tiring of the Federal Reserve’s love offerings. The U.S. central bank has long been able to soothe nervous investors with rate cuts or newly-printed money. But markets spurned Wednesday’s announcement of the Twist, an operation to lengthen the maturity of US$400-billion of the Fed’s US$1.7-trillion U.S. Treasury.
Stock markets fell sharply and the price of bonds from governments still considered safe rose. Investors were right not to be impressed. The Twist is aimed primarily at the U.S. housing market. But even if the Fed’s rearrangement lowers mortgages costs, house prices will be held back by a weak economy and the massive oversupply left over from the bubble years.
Tight monetary policy has long ceased to stand in the way of economic growth. Official real interest rates are solidly negative almost everywhere. The Twist could even impede lending — and growth — by narrowing the gap between short and long term rates. Banks, after all, gain from a steep yield curve.
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September 22, 2011 10:49 pm
Come on and twist a little closer now
For just the second time in its century-old history, the Federal Reserve has engaged in an attempt actively to twist the US yield curve to a flatter shape. This Operation Twist will have the most powerful effect if it marks a beginning and not an end to how far the Fed is willing to go down the route of unconventional monetary measures to rescue the recovery.
The immediate response from markets was disappointing. Yields had already priced in expectations of a twist. That by itself is no discouragement: it means that the move started working even before it was formally announced. But other markets paid less attention to what the new action may achieve than to the renewed pessimism by which the Federal Open Market Committee justified it. “Significant downside risks” cited by the FOMC, and borne out by bad economic survey results from China and the eurozone, have sent equities down and the dollar up.
It is premature, however, to judge whether the Fed’s shifting of $400bn of its balance sheet from shorter-term to longer-term assets will bear fruit. The answer will lie in market and economic behaviour over the next months, not days. But there are reasons to fear that little good will come from the twist.
Some are technical: in a world with seized-up unsecured lending, mopping up the best collateral on offer may restrain secured lending rather than channel funds to risky assets. Some are economic: the direct effect of the twist – lower long-term interest rates – is of limited benefit when it is deficient demand and not dear finance that keeps companies from expanding.
And some are political: the pressure not to “print money” (expand the Fed balance sheet) is illustrated by the Republican leaders who this week sent the Fed a letter that amounted to rank interference with the central bank’s independence. The FOMC’s choice of a twist rather than a third round of quantitative easing shows that it is not immune to such pressure.
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