Weekend Topic Suggestions
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Bank of America offers up to $20,000 short sale incentive to struggling homeowners
By Kimberly Miller Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 6:12 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 6, 2011
COMMENTS
Struggling? We have 7 in our developement. One put a paver patio in a couple of months ago. One is enjoying the extra money they are saving for the last three years while lounging at the pool talking on their cellphones. Another is renting it out pocketing the money. Two others are also enjoying their money with their new cars and fancy dogs while we pay their HOAs fees. As i I lost 40,000.00 on my last house and now are making my mortgage payments it must be nice to help them. I could use it.
jac
7:06 PM, 10/6/2011
Wow, I have already been offered 4,500. to do a deed in lieu by BofA. I have lived in my property for 1185 days(39 months) without a mortgage payment. Now, 20,000 to put the property up for a short sale. (I believe there is a catch). I would have to say to all you morons that told me to get out in the beginning and call me a deadbeat…. I am laughing at you now. I may be a deadbeat but I am going to come out on top……..So all you holier than thou’s can KMA
living lavida loco
2:18 AM, 10/7/2011
the funny thing…they think they will come out on top.
They probably will. Karma took a vacation.
It’s bad enough to realize that apple-pie values don’t get you ahead; they just get you shafted. But it’s even worse to be scorned and laughed at on the way up AND on the way down.
I’m tired. I’m just really tired.
THE WEEKEND INTERVIEW
OCTOBER 18, 2008
Anna Schwartz
Bernanke Is Fighting the Last War
‘Everything works much better when wrong decisions are punished and good decisions make you rich.’
…
“I’m tired. I’m just really tired.”
Then you are too involved, IMO.
Fire up some popcorn and sit back and relax as events unfold.
Events are going to unfold as they should whether you are involved or not, whether you are tired or not.
I don’t think I’m going to live long enough to see “events unfold”.
“It’s bad enough to realize that apple-pie values don’t get you ahead; they just get you shafted. But it’s even worse to be scorned and laughed at on the way up AND on the way down.”
+10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
X2
I think this would be an interesting topic to pursue, people who think they are gaming the system and crow about it, such as “living lavida loco”. It’s a pity one can’t follow these folks, much like people in medical studies are followed over time. It seems as if they are living payment-free and life is hunky dory.
But, if you could peek into their personal lives, I think you might find very different circumstances.
Case in point: I have an acquaintance who decided, at the beginning of 2010, to stop paying on a house that had lost half its value. Not that he couldn’t afford the payments, he made good money and had been paying for a few years and was doing just fine. But it stuck in his craw that his house was now worth far less than what he had purchased it for, so he consulted a number of attorneys (taking advantage of free consultations) and engaged one to advise him through his squatter period. His idea was that the bank would at some point say “uncle” and reduce the principal, or that he could buy it back at half price, maybe through another person. He was full of confidence that he would “game the gamers” and come out on top. Oh, part of the “advice” he’s had to follow is to not pay on credit cards as well, to make everything look more “legitimate”. At this point he had plenty of cash, so what the heck.
The right thing to do, IMO, would have been to walk away and rent another place. But, no, he was going to live there for free for a while, save his money and bend the bank to his will.
It hasn’t turned out that way. He lost his good paying gig and other factors in his life have gone south, despite the good front he’s putting on it. The strain on his marriage because the wife got dragged into the situation. I gently suggested that he walk and rent somewhere else, but he says he can’t afford to move. Probably somewhat true, although it likely has more to do with the state of his credit than cash on hand.
Eventually, Florida being a recourse state, some shark will buy the debt from the bank at pennies on the dollar and pursue him. If he can’t continue to generate cash (he did get another gig, but it has been difficult) there’s no credit to fall back on.
People who elect to do this sort of thing do tend to run down those who are paying their mortgages or rent as “schmucks”. Somehow it justifies their own actions, looking down on others. Myself, I like to sleep at night.
And, I’d also like to point out that the worst offenders throughout this whole phenomenon of the bubble and its bust are your so-called friends and neighbors. If they’d had any sense of proportion, any sense of the ridiculous, none of this would have happened. It required the consent of the “little guy” to have a bubble. There had to be mass participation. So don’t look to Wall Street and Washington, they’re really not the major culprits in the bubble, look next door, or across the street, or at the table next to you or at your buddy next to you having a beer.
Taking my acquaintance as an example, it was his actions, along with others, that drove the prices up so high I couldn’t even find a decent apartment to live in after I sold my house. But he’s got his, right? He, also, has looked down on me coming and going.
Just as peer pressure drove the bubble, peer pressure can also cause a bit of an attitude adjustment in those who think they’re so smart. Shun them. Ignore them. Turn away. I know, it’s hard to do. You can be blandly pleasant to them in public, but don’t offer them any comfort or support until they turn over a new leaf. They made life hard on you, it’s the least you can do for them. Don’t socialize with them. Don’t let your kids play with theirs. Only associate if you can make a buck off them. It’s your basic decency and intelligence and public money that they live off of, so do what you can to deprive them of that. They have been the enablers of Washington, Wall Street and the corps.
The best thing for many of these folks is that they be locked in disputes with similar snakes until they have a lightbulb moment.
“And, I’d also like to point out that the worst offenders throughout this whole phenomenon of the bubble and its bust are your so-called friends and neighbors. If they’d had any sense of proportion, any sense of the ridiculous, none of this would have happened. It required the consent of the “little guy” to have a bubble. There had to be mass participation. So don’t look to Wall Street and Washington, they’re really not the major culprits in the bubble, look next door, or across the street, or at the table next to you or at your buddy next to you having a beer.”
Amen.
Through all the years of this cr@p I don`t think I have seen anyone say that. How true it is.
palmetto for president!
It`s gonna be tough to get elected though.
“Through all the years of this cr@p I don`t think I have seen anyone say that. How true it is.”
Sammy Schadenfreude has said it, pointing out that “the majority” has elected turds time after time.
When I hear people crying in their beer about “they don’t care about the little guy”, I wanna say “Thanks, Captain Obvious”. “The little guy” is a big part of the problem, the “little guy” wants to be a victim, “the little guy” wants to bloviate and listen to whatever the media feeds him. “The little guy” will mess you over faster than anyone on Wall Street or in Washington. Your neighbor will do you in before Bernie Madoff does. Because he has access to you. But never forget, you have access to him, too and that’s where you can be effective.
Here’s an example: Why is so much of this area where I live a sh*thole? Because of my so-called friends and neighbors who pandered to illegals and hired them as lawn personnel and domestics and what have you, volunteering for charity work to help them, making their neighbors and members of the community bend over. It’s their neighbors and members of the community who are struggling to work and raise families and pay taxes so these retireds can get their Social Security and pensions and live nicely. ‘Eff ‘em. Think these retireds would volunteer to maybe tutor some kid whose parents are both working jobs to make ends meet? NAW! They go to the local prison for that and tutor some worthless piece of crap who couldn’t care less. Hey, here’s a good one: how’s about giving a child of an American citizen a job cutting the lawn? OH, NO! We can’t have THAT, now, can we? Give the job to an illegal. When their charities give out grants, who do you think gets the money? Not some single mother working at Circle K and raising two kids. OH, NO! Give it to the illegal b*tches who seem to have enough time to drag their nasty kids around with them to WalMart and all the thrift stores and yard sales. THEY’RE not paying into Social Security. The lady working at Circle K is, though. But who gives a hoot about her?
Palmy,
I truly hope you find peace.
“the little guy” wants to…listen to whatever the media feeds him.
Things like this?
“don’t look to Wall Street and Washington, they’re really not the major culprits in the bubble”
No, ya don’t, hansen. Not a bit, and you know it. That was a drippingly sanctimonious comment meant to establish some sort of moral superiority. And I won’t make a hypocritical comment about how I truly hope you find it.
Things like this?
“don’t look to Wall Street and Washington, they’re really not the major culprits in the bubble”
no.
But hey, ya gotta admit, there couldn’t have been a bubble without the massive cooperation of “the little guy”.
hansen, what is about me that really gets ya? I’m not politically correct? Don’t hold back now, it might help you “find peace” to get it out of your system. Go ahead, lemme have it both barrels.
I can’t speak to the golden hued past in general, but in my home town the only kid who was “making” any money cutting grass, was using that business to launder the money from his drug dealing. His mother was just dumb enough to believe that he could earn enough money to buy a boat and a car with lawn cutting money to believe it. He even bought a riding lawn mower so he could make it plausible by cutting a few lawns.
Maybe they hired each other’s kids to do yard work on the other side of town, but all the dads/sons did their own yards in my neighborhood. (As a daughter, I got assigned to weeds and raking up the clippings.)
A kid could make a few bucks when it snowed by getting to the houses of the older residents really early, but once a few people on the street had snow blowers, they would dig out their older neighbors for no charge at all just to get to use the toy a little longer.
The money in teenager work was never all that great. I was doing pretty well getting paid $10 an hour to tutor math, but until I could drive, that one hour job meant a parent had to drive me there and back. And they had to find something to do on that side of town because it wasn’t worth it to go home and then come back to get me.
I had a number of part time jobs when I wuz a pup. I didn’t hear my parents complaining when they had to drive me. They were happy I had the work.
I had a number of part time jobs when I wuz a pup. I didn’t hear my parents complaining when they had to drive me. They were happy I had the work.
Same here. I delivered papers, mowed lawns, took care of people’s pets, then got a “real” job at 14 as soon as I was legally allowed to. Either rode my bike or got dropped off by mom and then got a ride home from a coworker (helps that I worked at a pizza delivery place).
Of course, if you listen to the folks here it was pure “luck” that I was managing the place by the time I was 17…wasn’t due to my work ethic or anything…
When I think of those poor banksters, stuck with their hundreds of million$, and the blame they get for this mess, which was forced on them by the do-gooders, I just want to weep for them. How we have wronged them. I almost think we should bail them out one more time, just to show how sorry we are.
And I want to thank those of you here and everywhere, who thanklessly keep pointing out that the banksters were the real victims here, very well paid victims, but now I bet they just feel so bad about how everything shook out.
I’m sure that no matter what religion or spirituality you each may have, your God (or Koch brother, or whatever) will reward you for selflessly defending the powerful against the trickery of the weak. You are heroes, and you deserve an eternal reward.
Hey! RIo’s back! Where ya been? Is all OK down there in the land of sun and sea?
“I can’t speak to the golden hued past in general, but in my home town the only kid who was “making” any money cutting grass, was using that business to launder the money from his drug dealing.”
I am 51 years old, grew up in Old Greenwich Ct. and I cut grass in the summer for 1 of the older couples in my neighborhood for which I got paid and I cut our grass for which I did not get paid. That was the norm in my hood, either the owner or the kids cut the grass. Now a good snowfall and I made righteous bucks for shoveling driveways.
PS
I still cut my own (or the LLs grass) I believe I am the only one in this hood who does. The rest hire press 2 fors.
Sometimes I think that Florida has to be perhaps the most corrupt state in the country, and I’m talking about its residents.
California isn’t doing too badly in the corruption department these days, except it’s legalized corruption.
But, you’re probably right. Florida gets residents from all over the eastern half of the US from North to South, and from all over the world. Anyone who has lived in South Florida, especially Miami, knows something about the Hispanic-driven corruption that goes on, to the point of public comedy. (And don’t give me any of that razzmatazz about racism, “Hispanic” is not a race. I’m not saying other ethnicities aren’t corrupt, I’m just saying the Hispanic brand of corruption is usually more comedic or dramatic. I nearly messed my shorts when I heard Marco Rubio defend his wife’s perks because she was the “First Lady of the Florida Senate” (or House, I forget which).
Anyone remember the public spat between Xavier Suarez and Joe Carollo? Now THERE was a moment.
I would have to say to all you morons that told me to get out in the beginning and call me a deadbeat…. I am laughing at you now. I may be a deadbeat but I am going to come out on top……..So all you holier than thou’s can KMA
living lavida loco
”
I wonder if this will make it easier to get mortgages in the future?
We are approaching 2012, the year I expected a lot of this mess would be over. But it seems to have been stretched out. Any prediction on when the foreclosure overhang will finally be cleared?
Assuming government has an influence on this, it looks like more of the same until 2013, with perhaps movement afterward regardless of the outcome of the election. After all, the S&L thing was put off until after George I took office in 1989.
” Any prediction on when the foreclosure overhang will finally be cleared?”
Zager & Evans - Lyrics to In The Year 2525:
In the year twentyfive twentyfive
If HAMP is still alive
If Deadbeats can survive they may find.
Ain’t gonna need to tell the truth or tell no lies
Ev’rything you think do and say
Is from the rent you didn`t pay.
I agree about more of the same until 2013. It’s seems as if we’re already in full campaign mode. That, and considering that any correct and meaningful actions to resolve the mess only increase the short term recessionary pressures pretty much guarantees that nothing more gets done for now.
I’ve been in full defensive mode with investments since mid 2009, not much more that I can do except work my a** off as long as I (thankfully) still have the work. I can’t see making any major decisions or committments until mide 2013 at the earliest.
I don’t see any hopeful scenario at that point either coming out of the elections, no matter who wins or loses. Just too much uncertainty between now and then, and I fear things are really going to get ugly this election cycle. I hope I’m wrong about that but I’m really concerned at this point.
We’ve been in full campaign mode since the first government shut down scare in the spring. Or since the mid-term election if you really want to be depressed.
Wasn’t the point of 2 year terms for representatives that we be in somewhat continuous campaign mode? I just think the founding fathers didn’t realize how annoying the ads would be.
The Founding Fathers didn’t have to deal with cable tv, the internet, twitter and the 24/7/365 news cycle.
Did the U.S. economy pass a long-run point of no return when the Housing Bubble popped in 2006?
Fading American dream: 2010 census finds biggest drop in homeownership since Great Depression
By Associated Press, Published: October 6
WASHINGTON — The American dream of homeownership has felt its biggest drop since the Great Depression, according to new 2010 census figures released Thursday.
The analysis by the Census Bureau found the homeownership rate fell to 65.1 percent last year. While that level remains the second highest decennial rate, analysts say the U.S. may never return to its mid-decade housing boom peak in which nearly 70 percent of occupied households were owned by their residents.
The reason: a longer-term economic reality of tighter credit, prolonged job losses and reduced government involvement.
Unemployed young adults are least likely to own, delaying first-time home purchases to live with Mom and Dad. Middle-aged adults 35-64, mostly homeowners who were hit with mortgage foreclosures or bankruptcy after the housing bust in 2006, are at their lowest levels of ownership in decades.
Measured by race, the homeownership gap between whites and blacks is now at its widest since 1960, wiping out more than 40 years of gains.
“The changes now taking place are mind-boggling: the housing market has completely crashed and attitudes toward housing are shifting from owning to renting,” said Patrick Newport, economist with IHS Global Insight. “While 10 years ago owning a home was the American Dream, I’m not sure a lot of people still think that way.”
…
“… the housing market has completely crashed and attitudes toward housing are shifting from owing to renting.”
Look for similar attitudes to happen to stocks in that Price equals Value in many people’s minds, so when the price declines it takes the value down along with it.
Price bottoms are made when such attitudes reach their peak.
“Price bottoms are made when such attitudes reach their peak.”
And/or when the is an extremely attractive alternative investment, like 20% money market accounts, in the early 80s, at the beginning of the last secular bull market in stocks.
Extremely attractive alternative investments, like 20% money market accounts, are what one should expect to find in a illiquid economic environment.
What we have before us now is a insolvent economic environment. In such an environment cash beats all the other contenders.
I think the U.S. homeownership rate was excessive, and I’m pretty pro-home ownership for this board.
It’s not that lots of people don’t deserve, or are incapable of, becoming homeowners. It’s that homeownership only makes sense for part of people’s lives.
It didn’t makes sense for people to buy expecting to sell, instead of buying expecting to settle down.
It didn’t makes sense of young unmarried or newly married people, without firm ties to a community and without being established in the labor market, to buy a home that would be unsuitable if their family or financial situation change.
It didn’t makes sense for people whose career required frequent relocation to buy at any of the stops along the way and then have to sell.
And it didn’t make sense to buy and the cost relative to income and rents of the housing bubble.
Perhaps 50% owners makes sense. Not 67%.
ISTR seeing a graph of U.S. homeownership rates since the 1960s.
Any-hoo, our nation’s homeownership rate has fluctuated in a relatively narrow band between 62% and 66%. It took a leap upward during the bubble years that we love so much.
Methinks we’re now back to the long-term trend. And, to some people, that’s a worrisome sign.
And things are different now regarding careers, Anyone that has has to sell a house due to a relo will probably think twice about buying as rapidly in their new city.
Add to this the fact that many boomers nearing retirement cannot afford to stop working, it’s not opening up the ever-diminishing job pool for the younger set and consequently this ripples all the way to entrants to the market, most of whom are saddled with more debt than I ever could have anticipated when I went to school.
And who ever said designated home ownership as being part of the American Dream? Probably the real estate industry.
A link that I stumbled across:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNqQx7sjoS8
When owning a home became part of the “American Dream” you had several factors in play:
1) Home prices going down all across the country hadn’t happened (yet).
2) Home ownership meant that you could qualify for a mortgage which was hard and indicated that a respected member of the community (an officer at the bank) thought you a worthy risk.
I just don’t see these factors coming back any time soon. We now know that if prices go up enough, they can come down. That illusion is gone forever. And even with mortgages harder to get, it isn’t seen as a validation of your character. Not sure what it is seen as - maybe luck.
b-ham,
I have to agree with you about the “American Dream” thing. The phrase was in use in the 1950’s, too, (which is as far back as I can remember,) and it had nothing whatsoever to do with consumerist ideology. It referred instead to having the political freedom to pursue one’s life goals.
The whole “aspirational” thing (which always makes me think of accidentally breathing in vomit,) seems to have come into the equation somewhere around the same time that “Suzanne” did.
If you remove the homedebtors that never had any real equity in their place to begin with, the actual percentage of ownership never really got as high as the statistics indicate.
2010 census finds biggest drop in homeownership since Great Depression ??
Well, I am not sure its a weekend topic but I will through this out there…
I am sitting in my motor home in French Camp California right now…Close to home…Nice facilities…Little chip & putt golf course..Great place for the dogs to run..And MOST importantly, a sweeeet 19th hole with 3:00 Happy Hour
Anyway, back to my topic…In the past, we have always seen full time campers here…They are kind of sequestered to the far end of the park…Probably to create some kind of neighborhood atmosphere….
The amount of people living here full time in all sorts of rigs has “at least” doubled since I last came here 6 months ago…Its my understanding that they pay about $500. per month which includes all utilities & use of all facilities…
“Its my understanding that they pay about $500. per month which includes all utilities & use of all facilities…”
At those rates, I’m surprised it’s not packed with long-termers. That’s cheaper than Oil City. How far are you from jobs?
That’s full price for a lot in a trailer park in Boulder where there are lots of jobs…I don’t think you can park an RV there, though.
The Shoreline Villiage marina in Long Beach, CA, is packed with boats where owners (or renters) live on them full time, and instead of disposing their sewage properly the occupants are dumping them into the waters of the marina and so now the marina looks and smells like a raw sewer outlet.
At the end of the day, will the Volcker Rule prove to be a game changer in the financial system? Or will well-paid Wall Street attorneys find ways to gut its provisions?
Only time will tell.
BUSINESS
OCTOBER 7, 2011
The Multibillion-Dollar Leak
Draft of ‘Volcker Rule’ Hits Internet, Rocking Wall Street, Washington; ‘Proprietary Trading’ on Line
By SCOTT PATTERSON And VICTORIA MCGRANE
Bankers, lobbyists and lawmakers from Wall Street to Washington scrambled to dissect, analyze and react to a leaked proposal for one of the most controversial elements of the Dodd-Frank financial-overhaul law: the “Volcker rule.”
Billions of dollars are at stake for big banks, which have been working for months to shape the rule aimed at curbing risky trading activities that played a part in the financial crisis.
The latest frenzy erupted late Wednesday when a website posted a 205-page draft of a memo, dated Sept. 30, that laid out critical elements of the proposed Volcker rule.
The leak left regulators fuming and opened a new front in Wall Street’s battle to soften the blow of the proposed rule. The draft gave banking industry lobbyists several days to discuss it before Tuesday, when the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is scheduled to consider issuing a version for public comment.
The response came quickly. A team of seven lawyers at the law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell, which represents a number of large banks, worked through the night in New York to ensure clients got briefings with their Thursday breakfast. Congressional staffers pored over the document looking for clues about how strict or lenient it could be.
Talk spread that the leak could prompt regulators to move more quickly to release an official version. A lobbyist for a large Wall Street bank assigned a staffer to continuously monitor the website of the Federal Reserve, which is helping draft the rule.
The rule is named for former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who argued that trading by banks for their own profit, an activity known as proprietary trading, encouraged financial institutions to take excessive risks.
A spokesman for Mr. Volcker declined to comment on the draft and said he will only comment when the official version has been released.
…
Leaked Memo
Read the draft document.
The rest of the article goes into detail on the some of the regulations, but they are way over my head. Looks like some favorable language got in, but some strict language too.
I wonder who leaked it?
Awesome, GS!
They are asking for comments, and I think we ought to oblige.
Whatever comes of these foreclosure talks, I certainly hope it doesn’t involve any blanket release of banks from other legal exposure. If the banks didn’t believe they were exposed, they wouldn’t be negotiating so hard for a release. And besides, if crimes were committed, why should shareholders be forced to pay the price, while billions and billions of bonus dollars continue to flow uninterrupted?
MARKETS
OCTOBER 7, 2011
Foreclosure Talks Move Forward
By RUTH SIMON
California Attorney General Kamala Harris, who dropped out last week from talks aimed at wringing a huge settlement from banks accused of foreclosure abuses, remains open to a deal if it involves “a stronger proposal” from lenders, according to a person familiar with the situation.
U.S. and state officials held daylong meetings Tuesday and Wednesday, trying to forge a deal with Ally Financial Inc., Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. In return for a settlement, those companies would get some protection from legal claims tied to their foreclosure practices.
Federal officials have been trying to broker a settlement of up to $25 billion that includes principal reductions and other help for homeowners in a bid to break a foreclosure logjam that threatens to keep housing markets depressed and slow the economic recovery. Banks would like to reach a deal to reduce their legal exposure and ease investor worries about their financial health, which have hammered their share prices this year.
Negotiators believe they can still reach a broad-based settlement if enough states sign on and are able to lure back others that have balked at certain terms. In addition to Ms. Harris, New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman is among those who have raised objections. Additional meetings could come as soon as next week.
The two sides made progress on several issues this week, nearly completing work on proposed servicing standards and moving forward on an enforcement mechanism for the deal, people familiar with the matter said.
But no agreement has been reached on some of the most divisive issues, such as the extent to which banks should be released from additional legal claims.
…
Is China experiencing their own version of the U.S. tech stock crash of ten years hence?
Chinese Internet Stocks Tumble on SEC Probe Concern (BIDU, SINA, RENN, DANG, YOKU, SOHU, PWRD, GAME, NTES)
Written by Gerard Lerod
Thursday, 29 September 2011 22:01
New York, September 29th (TradersHuddle.com) – Chinese Internet Stocks plunged amid chatter that the Department of Justice was assisting the Securities & Exchange Commission probe regarding accounting issues or irregularities in Chinese companied listed in the U.S. markets. The space also suffered amid technology underperformance and as momentum sputtered, in high beta stocks and in the backdrop China’s stock market closed lower at a new 15-month low.
…
What? They’re cooking their books to fake non-existant products? Say it ain’t so Joe!
Does an improved employment situation reduce chances the Fed will layer QE3 on top of Operation Twist?
Payrolls rise in September, jobless rate steady
By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON | Fri Oct 7, 2011 9:00am EDT
(Reuters) - Employment grew more than expected in September and job gains for the prior months were revised higher, according to a government report on Friday that could ease fears the economy was heading into recession.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 103,000 the Labor Department said on Friday, while the unemployment rate held steady at 9.1 percent as an increase in household employment offset a rise in the participation rate.
Part of September’s relative strength reflected the return of 45,000 Verizon Communications workers who had dropped off payrolls in August due to a strike. Excluding those workers, payrolls increased by 58,000.
The tenor of the report was strengthened by revisions that showed 99,000 more jobs added in July and August than initially reported. In addition, hourly earnings rebounded and the average work week rose.
Economists had expected nonfarm employment to increase 60,000 last month and the jobless rate to hold steady at 9.1 percent.
…
Is Occupy Wall Street the manifestation of the anger stage in the housing bubble stages of grief?
Posted at 12:32 PM ET, 10/06/2011
We are the 99 percent and Occupy Wall Street grow larger nationwide
By Elizabeth Flock
When a few dozen people began protesting on Wall Street on September 17 to voice their frustration with America’s “corrupt democractic processes,” it struck a nerve with Americans across the country who were fed up with the state of the economy, the government, and their own lives.
There was little those outside of New York could do to support the protests but watch, until six days later, when a Tumblr blog called We Are The 99 Percent sprang up online.
“The 99 percent have been set against each other, fighting over the crumbs the 1 percent leaves behind… Be part of the 99 percent and let the 1 percent know you’re out there,” the site wrote, asking people to submit photos of themselves holding handwritten signs that told their stories about the American dream gone wrong.
Within days, dozens had submitted signs such as: “Married. Two children. Laid off. Hubby laid off. Florida unemployment pays $250.00 a week. Bank of America wants our house! No health care. No retirement. Babylon is falling. I am the 99 percent.”
And at the bottom of nearly every sign, in small print, a scrawled phrase: “Occupy Wall Street.”
These people weren’t on Wall Street, but they hoped their voices could still be heard.
“It’s not that 99 percent of Americans want a revolution,” Ezra Klein wrote Tuesday. “It’s that 99 percent of Americans sense that the fundamental bargain of our economy — work hard, play by the rules, get ahead — has been broken, and they want to see it restored.”
…
Is something planned for DC today? Because I have to tell you that Pennsylvania Ave in front of the White House is locked down tight today. Uniformed secret service has an SUV, two cars and 5 motorcycles on the 17th Avenue side. Center of the street is blocked off with crowd control fences so you can only walk along the White House side or the Lafayette Park side. Seems like they are trying to discourage a lot of people from congregating in a big lump without actually closing it off.
Very strange.
I think that the DC protests are about to crank up bigtime. So, that’s probably why the WH is under such tight security.
Then again, it might have something to do with the Chicago Bears.
Within days, dozens had submitted signs such as: “Married. Two children. Laid off. Hubby laid off. Florida unemployment pays $250.00 a week.
What? I thought unemployement bennies were “lavish” and were a disincentive to find a real job!
Darn those facts.
Unemployment pays about1/2 of your weekly pay…the max is pretty high in the NE $400 a week….so why take a $12 hr job….When there might be a chance the boss is a scumbagg or a pervert and will fire you in a second then lie to the unemployment office?
Then you have to wait 6 weeks or more for a hearing and no checks until then
Thats what makes people scared to take ANY JOB…..eliminate this and people will find work quickly.
The incentive to find a replacement for the job you lost is that the UE won’t be enough to cover even the mortgage for most people. Of course this assumes that you are trying to get a comparable job to the one that was lost.
“eliminate this and people will find work quickly.”
I have an obvious question to ask you — if this is the only thing that holds people back from finding work, then why are there so many desperate post-99-ers?
(99ers in the weeks unemployment sense, not the 99%ers per #occupywallstreet)
Ahh Oxide different question…most employers know you get 26 weeks, so its understandable no one wants to take a chance, but this time with all the extensions you lose skills and if you dont work for free as an intern or volunteer then what can you show the employer thats at the top of your resume for 99 weeks?
So it becomes more of a discimination issue then a fear of losing UI.
For example a recent person on the unemployed friends site was offered a job quit the first with a temp agency PT…started the new job training Full time and it was all BS…unethical sales telemarketing etc, so he quit and went back to the temp agency and started working a few days later…
What does UI do? claims he quit 2 jobs for 1 day…and stops his UI even though he went right back to work with the temp agency….
So now he’ll have to borrow $$ from his mom to keep the lights on, for what he was desperate for a full time job?
———
then why are there so many desperate post-99-ers
I cant find work and I don’t qualify for unemployment as I was a small business owner who sold his biz. I am looking at making half of what I was and still nothing. But, I havent applied at WalMart….yet.
I thought unemployement bennies were “lavish”
I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone state that. Attacking strawmen again?
And yes, unemployment is a disincentive to find a real job, depending on what jobs you’re looking at. If you found a job for 20hrs/week paying $15/hr vs getting $250/week in UI, which would you take?
That half-time job might end up becoming a full time job, but folks won’t take it because they can get paid about as much to sit at home and not have to put in the effort, pay transportation costs, etc.
You really believe that the presence of UI benefits is NOT a factor?
Drummin….its back to the same answer…its not the UI its what happens if you take a job and the boss is a jerk or a pervert….thats where the problem is….You have to wait for a hearing and a determination to maybe start collecting again
THAT is the disincentive to take ANY JOB.
If you want deflation with a vengeance, by all means support the termination of unemployment benefits.
But don’t sit there and say you advocate it for the good of the country, if you financial planning comes up a winner if it does.
There’s enough deflationary pressures on wages as it is, without throwing more fuel on the fire.
Deflation really screws me, because I’ll see wage deflation, but my debts will stay denominated in 2008 dollars. Can’t go bankrupt, because I need to keep open credit lines to do my main and sideline jobs. Can’t fix airplanes if you can’t buy parts, and airplane parts are EXPENSIVE.
If you want deflation with a vengeance, by all means support the termination of unemployment benefits.
I’ve never argued for it. Employees effectively “pay” for it up to a point. I would argue against the federal extension of benefits, though..
Deflation really screws me, because I’ll see wage deflation, but my debts will stay denominated in 2008 dollars.
I’m sorry to hear that, but that’s the risk of taking on debt. Inflation helps debtors, but hurts savers. Deflation helps savers, and hurts debtors. Perhaps it’s time those of us who haven’t run up debt get to benefit…
Yeah, well tell that to my youngest daughters. I could be debt free, if only I was willing to let them live with “Chester the Molester” and his demon spawn.
Lawyers are expensive, even when the facts are on your side.
Arizona pays $240 max.
Once again - we’re #2 behind Mississippi! ($230).
Does the Occupy Wall Street movement fundamentally change the political calculus for next year’s presidential election?
Why Occupy Wall Street Should Scare Republicans: Jonathan Alter
October 06, 2011, 8:23 PM EDT
By Jonathan Alter
Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) — In Florida this week, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney was asked about the growing Occupy Wall Street movement. “I think it’s dangerous, this class warfare,” he said.
Romney’s right. It may be dangerous — to his chances of being elected.
Occupy Wall Street, now almost three weeks old, isn’t like the anti-globalization demonstrations that disrupted summits in the 1990s or even the street actions at the 2004 Republican National Convention in New York, though some of the same characters are probably in attendance. With unemployed young protesters planning to camp out all winter in Zuccotti Park (with bathrooms available only at a nearby McDonald’s), it’s more like a cross between a Hooverville and Woodstock — the middle-class jobless of the 1930s and the hippie protesters of the 1960s.
…
“I think it’s dangerous, this class warfare,” he said.
Geez, Ya think?
Of course, when you read between the lines, what the PTB are really saying is:
We really don’t care that the middle class is hurting, and even if we did we aren’t going to change the policies that are making us richer at everyone else’s expense. So tighten your belt serf, and don’t even think about complaining, because that’s “class warfare”. Only we are allowed to wage class warfare, understand serf?
Exactly.
Marie Antoinette didn’t get it either.
New business idea….The 1% are into the fractional ownership of jet aircraft, how about the 99% invest in guillotine time shares? We could even start production in the US.
Guillotines are too “French”
Americans like good old fashioned firing squads.
If it comes to that, they will even bring their own guns and ammo. Might even be a nice little revenue source for a post apocalypse government, selling “Firing Squad tags”
“Yeah, Joe-Bob, could only get a couple of Bankster/1%er tags this year. Two’s my limit. Better make them count”
‘No problem. I’m waiting for bow/black powder hunting season. No limits there”.
selling “Firing Squad tags”
How about selling a spot on the firing squad?? Auction to the highest bidder?
Something for Ebay to think about.
“Guillotines are too “French”
Americans like good old fashioned firing squads.”
No, I think we prefer a some rope and a tree…
There it is. Rope and a lightpole or a tree limb. Why waste a round?
At least Marie Antionette received some kind of comeuppance. Wake me when the new culprits receive some comeuppance. And I don’t really care if they “get” it or not.
Resistance = Aggression.
True only to a psycopath.
I think the attempts to make the people at home perceive the occupiers as a bunch of pinko-commies is just beginning. Even on NPR today, they were described as a ‘fringe group’.
As long as they resist being co-opted by any political ideology, they’re going to be ominous– thus a power to reckon with.
Somehow.
So far, they’re doing great.
Even describing them as “Democrats” is divisive.
The 99% are just that — the 99%. We don’t belong to any particular political party. As a matter of fact, we recognize that the two-party system has long been used to divide and conquer us. We recognize that they are two puppets controlled by the same puppet master.
We should remind them daily that we “belong” to no existing group. We will not be categorized so they can divide us yet again.
We need to keep a laser-like focus on what we are targeting — Wall Steet and how the financial industry (the FIRE industry, as a whole) has destroyed this country. We need to stay on topic and avoid issues like immigration, gay marriage, equal rights, etc. Those all might be good things for many people, but they create a divide that will be used against us.
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The Financial Times
October 7, 2011 7:34 pm
White House feeds off protest anger
By Richard McGregor in Washington
“Occupy Wall Street” demonstrators stage a march dressed as corporate zombies during a protest near Wall Street in New York,
Weeks after taking to the streets in Manhattan, Occupy Wall St demonstrators are camped a block from the White House. Many of them are wondering: do they have a friend inside?
While not endorsing the protests, Barack Obama and Joe Biden have expressed understanding of the movement that has spread rapidly across the country.
Mr Obama said people were angry because Wall Street had not been “following the rules”. His vice-president even compared the movement on Thursday to the Tea Party, the conservative movement which has upended national politics in the past two years.
“The core [of the protest] is: the bargain has been breached. The American people do not think the system is fair, or on the level,” Mr Biden said.
…
Politicians will ignore or discount the Occupy Wall Street movement at their peril. Say what you want about Obama’s sincerity, but at least he has the good political sense to acknowledge the protests as born of serious problems with the financial system, rather than discounting them out of hand as class warfare.
We were at the Occupy SD rally Friday. It was a great group of people from all walks of life.
I highly encourage others to join. We’ve spent years whining about the wealth/income disparity and “bought” politicians. Now, it’s time to do something about it.
It is now one year since we bought our home has fallen in price a bit BUT not as much as the total amount of a years rent.
We had rented since 2007 when we moved here.
Almost all of the homes around me have now been re-sold that were in LP or foreclosure.
My street looks like a neighborhood again with yards kept and people enjoying their new homes.
I have no regrets, we paid 215,000 for an over the top beautiful home on 2 acres with a pool that was 40,000 installed my home has every possible upgrade.
You could not build what we have for 215,000.
How many others from this message board have bought in the last year?
Whereabouts d’ya live?
Loxahatchee, Florida ( twenty miles West of West Palm Beach)
Where are you?
More importantly, why on earth would you compare the amount of value you lost in your house to the amount of rent you paid?
This is my comparison. As a renter, I have saved $X this year. If I had purchased, I would have been able to save $Y and have paid off $Z of the mortgage. The comparison is between $X and $Y+$Z. How much wealthier are you at the end of the year? If you already have plans to sell the house, I guess you have to factor in the change in value of the house, but otherwise the most relevant factor is how much of the loan you have paid off and other savings.
I value my freedom from debt highly. Don’t see a factor in your equation for that.
Debt is just something you have to pay monthly until it is gone. Rent is something I have to pay monthly until I can pay cash for a house/apartment or I die. I don’t see a lot of difference if your job and the location of that job is stable. If you wanted to suggest a way to quantify the flexibility of renting, we could add that.
Each situation is different.
Ex 1. The rent I choose to pay (I rent a larger unit) is far higher than a comparable house. Even if I buy at the top of my price range, I would save $600 a month with a mortgage (including tax + ins). That buys a lotta repairs and maintenance.
Ex 2. Conversely, if my rent were much lower than PITI, I could rent and pack away the difference. At the end of 20 years I could retire and buy a home outright anywhere in the country. Buy or rent, the end outcome is the same: a paid off home after 30 years. I considered that option too.
Ex 3. Renting can also buy a much nicer commute. This figures into Polly’s calculations.
Exactly, Oxide. The choices on units and locations matter, but if you are dealing with comparable choices (for your situation), you still don’t compare the yearly rent to the amount the house loses value in a year. The only part of PITI that goes into “savings” (really a reduction in your obligation to pay off a debt) is the P and it starts out very small. If rent is less than PITI you have some math to do (calculate any tax benefits, etc.). If PITI plus cost of upkeep is less than rent, then it is likely to be a good deal as long as your location is stable.
I paid cash for my house.
We are almost 50 this is our last house till a condo one day when we can’t keep up with the two acres.
What is the AC bill in FL? I heard FL is unbearable 6 months of the year.
“You could not build what we have for 215,000.”
You want to bet on that my reaItor apologist?
Realtors Are Liars®
MY Pool alone was 40,000
There is NO way you could get the quality in my home for 215,000 impossible.
@Avocado The biggest power bill I have had was 240.00 ( son visiting from Canada always ends up giving me a huge power bill) My normal bill is around 187.00 I set my thermostat at 78.
I use energy efficient bulbs and all of my new appliances are energy efficient.
It is not unbearable at all we used to live in The Bahamas now that place has 100% humidity year round and is just to hot.
I am an outdoor person and show and ride horses year round.
I just wait until the later part of the afternoon to ride during the hottest part of the year.
I love it here and love my new home.
I am so super happy I bought I picked up a really good one.
I think we should put together a top ten list of “things about the economic meltdown you need to know before you get in front of a camera at a protest rally”:
For instance…I think one should be – the repeal of glass-steagall.
What are some others we could add?
We met the enemy and he is us?
Originators of loans should have to keep a 10% equity stake (subordinated to all other interests) of any loans they make. They should be regulated to make sure that they have sufficient capital to cover that 10% if it goes bad. Any originator that is found not to do this will be broken up, with its assets sold to the highest bidder. All executives with compensation contracts, will have to have a clause in that contract allowing a clawback of all salary and bonus abover $100K per year for any years the organization was not in compliance.
Ha, they can barely swallow QRM, where they have to keep 5%. And that’s only if they make loan <20% down.
The Gov’t focus should be not on the American people on the OUTSIDE of Goldenman$ucksInc. et.al., but on the American people “doing God’s work on the INSIDE of Goldenman$ucksInc. et.al.
This might be a good start:
Gov’t Auditor’$ [with the a promise of a commission bonu$] should show up monthly & unannounced @ MegaCorpInc.$, escorted by Federal Marshal’s with multiple sets of hand-cuffs & (x100 quantity) bag of tie-wrap wrist straps, pillows, cots & sleeping bags, and x20 pencil sharpeners.
The clarion call from the“TrueReduceTheDeficitNow!! Today!™” / “TrueAnger™” / “TrueGridLocker’s™” Congress shouldn’t be:
“Cut it! or Shut it!” rather it ought to be: “Choose to Use ‘em!” and by “‘em” eyes mean these guys:
E as in, E-Verify: Immigrant workers & ledger Entrie$
E as in, Enforce
E as in, Examine CorpInc. Entrail$
E as in, enema
usmarshals gov / U.S. Federal Government, U.S. Department of Justice:
History - Broad Range of Authority
The offices of U.S. Marshals and Deputy Marshal were created by the first Congress in the Judiciary Act of 1789, the same legislation that established the Federal judicial system. The Marshals were given extensive authority to support the federal courts within their judicial districts and to carry out all lawful orders issued by judges, Congress, or the president.
As a balance to this broad grant of authority, Congress imposed a time limit on the tenure of Marshals, the only office created by the Judiciary Act with an automatic expiration. Marshals were limited to four-year, renewable terms, serving at the pleasure of the president.
The Marshals took care of the details, thereby freeing the judges and attorneys to concentrate on the cases before them. They made sure the water pitchers were filled, the prisoners were present, the jurors were available and the witnesses were on time.
Their primary function was to support the federal courts. The Marshals and their Deputies served the subpoenas, summonses, writs, warrants and other process issued by the courts, made all the arrests and handled all the prisoners. They also disbursed the money. The Marshals paid the fees and expenses of the court clerks, U.S. Attorneys, jurors and witnesses. They rented the courtrooms and jail space and hired the bailiffs, criers, and janitors. In effect, they ensured that the courts functioned smoothly.
These diversified duties precluded the Marshals from developing any particular specialty. They were law enforcers, but also administrators. They needed to be adept in accounting procedures and pursuing outlaws. in quelling riots and arranging court sessions. The legacy of their history was the avoidance of specialization. Even today. in this age of experts, U.S. Marshals and their Deputies are the general practitioners within the law enforcement community. As the government’s generalists, they have proven invaluable in responding to rapidly changing conditions. Although other Federal agencies are restricted by legislation to specific well-defined duties and jurisdictions, the Marshals are not. Consequently, they arc called upon to uphold the government’s interests and policies in a wide variety of circumstances.
“things about PROTESTING you need to know before you get in front of a camera at a protest rally”:
How about NO DRUM CIRCLES?
They had streaming vidoe of the local Occupy support protest, and there were people trying to speak but you couldn’t hear them over the drum circle. I wish I was joking. I think a lot of average folks would be more likely to get behind these protests if that sort of element was discouraged from taking over. I’m a big lefty myself, but I also realize that tactics need to change from what was done in The Sixties, Man. Please, don’t make this Burning Man.
I swear, “The Man” doesn’t need to infiltrate the movement with a Black Bloc to break windows and vandalize in order to turn people against it. They just have to send a few guys to the protest in tie dye shirts and and dreads and suddenly, anything anybody intelligent has to say is instantly irrelevant.
If the protesters really want to freak out the powers that be, they should go all Nation of Islam and wear dark suits and sunglasses. That would put the fear in ‘em.
Drum circles are in the same category as young-Castro-wannabe beards. Definitely counterproductive when trying to make your case to middle America.
A good regular (band) drummer once told me drum circles were like listening to tennis shoes in a dryer.
That’s hilarious.
A good regular (band) drummer once told me drum circles were like listening to tennis shoes in a dryer.
I plead guilty to participating in a drum circle back in April.
While I was thumping away, I came to the realization that drumming isn’t that easy. Not only do you have to have a sense of rhythm, you have to have the persistence needed to keep that beat going.
LOL!
Excellent, Bub. And you’re absolutely right.
On a related topic, here is one really worth reading.
http://www.wallstreetallstars.com/2011/10/07/the-retirement-bubble/
“If there is not enough income behind the growing population of elderly people to fund them in retirement, then retirement is a bubble, and should be abandoned. Tell retirees to defer or reduce their retirement goals. If they can’t even make on that level, tell them that they have to work until they die. A sad concept, but true for most of humanity so far.”
“I’m not trying to be mean. I am just looking at existing structures and asking how do we support the elderly in the US. It is not an easy question.”
Well, if people paid off their houses and lived rent free like previous generations, perhaps the question would be easier.
The bigger question: Why is there not enough income?
It wouldn’t have anything to do with the money that Washington and Wall Street have diverted from the paychecks of J6P, and blown/burned up/wasted on various ventures for the past 30 years?
Like:
-Leveraged buy outs in the 80s
-Multiple wars, police actions, and “peacekeeping efforts”
-The S & L bail out.
(At least we saw some perp walks……but I’d like to see a “Where are they now?” report on some of the biggest S & L fraudsters. I’ll bet none of them are living under a bridge, eating cat food.)
- Money transferred overseas, because the “investment climate is better”
(supposedly…..let’s see what happens when the Chinese commodities and real estate ponzi blow up)
-Multiple “Flash crashes”
-Multiple “International Banking Crisis”
-Federal Reserve Interest rate manipulation, for the benefit of the banksters, and the detriment of the savers.
-Multiple “Tax Reforms” that transferred the tax burden from the 1%ers to the Middle Class.
-Multiple revisions to the laws, thus making “the best way to rob a bank is to own one…..”
I could go on……..
Very well said, X-GS.
Retirees renting in my general area complain about rent increases. (I don’t live in the Irene. And I don’t think 2 bedrooms in my building are anything close to $4000 a month.)
http://www.gazette.net/article/20111005/NEWS/710059585/1020/rising-rents-stagnants-rights-have-renters-crying-foul&template=gazette
Oxide - there is some interesting stuff about MoCo rent increases in here.
Thanks.
“But David Cohen, 70, is feeling less comfortable about his retirement after learning his rent will increase for the second straight year, this time by 5 percent.”
I’m sorry, but they really should have known this when they began renting. There’s a more concrete reason that people bought houses. Their payment stays they same while the rent keeps going up. And after 30 years, you stop paying PI while the renters get no such break.
If the price is right, you like paying the same for 30 years, and you don’t have to move, buying is a GOOD thing. The problem is that prices haven’t been right, people have to be be prepared to move, and PITI does go up with the idiot mortgages.
Well, if people paid off their houses and lived rent free like previous generations, perhaps the question would be easier.
And who should pay for their mistake not to?
That will be the question won’t it? Particularly as younger generations get crushed under past public debts even if they live debt free themselves.
We wont build a pipeline through canada and create jobs…..we wont mine rare earths to protect us from China cutting off supplies…we wont build necessary rail or tunnels under protected lands so we have massive traffic jams..
Lets start with the basics Lets double the speed of existing commercial rail lines….elminate at grade crossings…and then worry about high speed trains
Enough of the tree huggers…
http://p.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/6/white-house-feels-pressure-on-oil-pipeline/
Commercial rail lines are built to haul freight. High speed rail needs “super-elevation (banked track in curves). And how much public money will you want to spend on private infrastructure? When most freight main lines are running close to max capacity?
High speed rail doesn’t make a huge amount of sense in Flyover. Even flying at 450mph doesn’t make much sense for trips of 300 miles or less. Speed limits are 70-75 mph (plus whatever above that you think you can get away with). I can drive a 250 mile trip out here faster than i can fly it commercially.
The only place high speed makes much sense is in major population areas like the NE corridor. There, you will spend less building a new line from scratch, that you will by modernizing and fighting the battles to get grade crossings closed.
Of course, the main problem will be preventing various factions from leeching off the construction of the line in a multitude of ways. And spending 10 years fighting with the NIMBYs. And dealing with the guys who stand to profit, if the rail line is built thru their property/town/state.
Are stocks too risky now to stay invested?
Disgusted by stocks? Consider reducing your portfolio’s risk
By Matt Krantz, USA TODAY
October 5, 2011
Q: Is it “game over” for the stock market? After 10 years in the market, I am still in the red and stocks continue to fall and would have been better off with a savings account. Should I give up on the stock market?
A: Ready to throw in the towel and sell all your stocks? Be careful, there’s probably another investor waiting to buy them from you.
When stocks enter an ugly period, and the current market certainly qualifies, investors get understandably irritated with the whole process. After all, you didn’t risk your hard-earned money for fun. You’re investing in companies so you have a chance at earning a positive return. And you need to earn a return if you want to have a shot at retiring and keeping up with the ravages of inflation.
But I’m not saying to ignore your feelings of disgust toward the stock market. The fact you’re ready to give up on stocks is very telling. It tells me the portfolio you’ve selected is most likely too risky for you. If you’re not able to withstand the ups and downs of your portfolio, you might want to reposition it. Most likely, a larger portion of your portfolio should be in less risky investments, like government bonds, which are actually rallying in the face of the stock market sell off.
…
Topic: Is there a solution?
Seems like the only one is more spending from the gov. If not, and the gov cuts way back, you have a lot of hungry and homeless who will kill you for a sandwich.
Is there a solution?
Absolutely.
I think your real question is “is there a solution that involves no pain”. To that I’d say the answer is a resounding ‘no’. We f’ed up, and we now have to take our lumps.
But folks want a magical solution that involves no sacrifice or pain on their part. Sorry, but that’s just not in the cards, no matter how much our politicians keep promising it to us.
So… what is it? Dog eat dog kinda pain?
Yes, there is a solution.
Fix the trade and tax policies that have decimated our job base. Bring back decent, well-paying jobs so that workers can afford to pay taxes.
Raise taxes on cap gains. Cap gains are zero-sum. In order for one person to get rich, another person has to lose. We should encourage productive investments (in businesses that provide goods and services that are needed by society), but gambling on asset price movements should not be encouraged under any circumstances.
Eliminate the cap on Social Security taxes, and tax ALL income for SS.
Tax ALL income at the same, steeply progressive levels. Investment income should not be taxed at a lower rate than earned income.
Take care of the illegal immigration problem. If they (or their parents) aren’t here legally, cut off all public assistance. We cannot afford to take care of our own poor, much less everyone else’s poor.
Are we headed into another recession, and if so, is it likely to be milder than the last one?
Oct. 7, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT
How bad would a recession be? Bad enough
Commentary: Coming downturn could be mild, but prolonged
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Plenty of time and energy are being expended arguing about whether we’ll have another recession in the United States. But that’s not the most interesting question.
…there are good reasons to think that if we do have another recession, it’ll be milder than usual. Why? Because you can’t get knocked down if you’re already on the floor.
The cyclical sectors of the economy, the ones that fall hard in recessions and soar quickly in expansions, are already extraordinarily weak. These are the sectors that typically get overbuilt during expansions and create imbalances that must be corrected during recessions.
This time, it’s different.
Housing construction, for instance, has collapsed since the bubble days and is now at such low levels that it’s barely keeping pace with normal wear and tear. Residential investment can’t drop much further, so relatively few construction workers would lose their jobs in a renewed recession.
…
Another one? We never left the first one.
I feel a stock market crash coming this month. A 10% down day or more.
there are good reasons to think that if we do have another recession, it’ll be milder than usual. Why? Because you can’t get knocked down if you’re already on the floor ??
Quote of the week…
Dean Baker has been saying this for months. To get actually negative for two quarters (as required for the technical definition of a recession) you need some sector or sectors to go really negative. He doesn’t think that government spending is big enough to do it and housing and cars haven’t recovered enough to go all that negative.
Not sure I agree completely. A really huge pull back in DoD/Homeland security spending might do it. But I don’t think we are going to get that.
Are we headed into another recession, and if so, is it likely to be milder than the last one?”
new normal, BTW how can this economy grow forever if people are not having children?
flat is the new normal
last home price crash here in S. Ca ( 1990 ) people walked away from the Townhomes were I lived and bought real homes, and they are doing fine.
this is why I knew they or others would just do it again and why when I read a bank president say ” people will do anything to save there homes” he didn’t get it.
if I live long enough I expect this to happen again and again and the USA to become more like Greece or Mexico were scams and dis-honesty are virtures and we all have a lower standard of living because of it.
Canadians are trying to figure out how to capitalize on the flow of housing subsidies out of DC:
Oct. 7, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT
Don’t fall for get-rich real estate schemes
You don’t need a course, books or CDs to invest in real estate
By Lew Sichelman
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Question: I attended a free seminar in Montreal by an outfit trying to sell attendees a three-day course on how Canadians can profit from the depressed U.S. real estate market by using three different strategies:
1. Purchase deeply discounted real estate and offer financing to sell the house back to local Americans who cannot find financing otherwise. Under this scheme, a deed in lieu of payment is signed at the time the mortgage is signed so that if payments are missed, the lender can repossess the property without going before a judge and incurring legal fees and long delays.
2. Buy a property and, while waiting for the deal to go through, sell the right to buy the property at a fixed rate to another person, who is charged a finder’s fee, using an assignment of real estate contract.
3. Buy a rental property and lease it to socially disadvantaged Section 8 tenants, whose rent in large part — approximately 50% — is paid by the government, thereby providing a very secure cash flow.
They also suggest setting up a U.S. company to perform these strategies so that you may take advantage of tax structures.
Can you comment on the feasibility of these strategies? Are there any caveats we should be aware of? Any advice you offer would be greatly appreciated. —G.G., Montreal.
Answer: Of the three strategies, only the third makes any sense to me. And you don’t need to set up a U.S. company to do it.
…
Suggestion: what can we do to prepare for the next smashing leg down. It’s clear from this thread we’re all a little crabby and bubble fatigued. Even Ben, yeah?
Combo, of course, is his usual rock self. I hope to be that steady and stoic soon.
I see both Palmy and Allena’s point. As a teacher, I have to find it in my heart to forgive and move on every day. Of course, one must learn from the experience, which is where I see Palmy’s point: all these f’ers knew better. WAY better.
Personally, I’ve adjusted my diet, expenses, and of course still spend as much time as possible with my kids. I’ve made it a point to refrain from engaging in personal/political/finance discussions at work so people only know me as a guy that does business during business. I don’t want to give anyone a reason to hate/fire me.
Anyway, I think everyone needs to take a deep breath, and figure how to take a bite of this sandwich, because, yeah, we didn’t make it, but it’s clear we’re all going to have break a piece off of the damned thing.
I still can’t get my mind 100% wrapped around Occupy. I saw one dude bitching that he can’t feed his cat. Seriously? It seems to be more of an organized whine fest rather than a call for voter action.
Anyway, it’s clear we’re headed down again.
I tend to cut J6P a little more slack that Sammy and a few others do around here.
There’s enough crap going on in people’s lives that they don’t have the time to sit around and research all the ways they are getting screwed over.
Back in the Watergate days, the media pretty much came to a general consensus that what was happening was pretty screwed up, and weren’t afraid to say so. And since there were only three TV channels, and a dozen or so major newspapers that mattered, the case can be made that media strength was concentrated in fewer hands.
Now, we have hundreds of media outlets, all pushing their version of reality. And you can always find a few dozen that will back up any viewpoint you care to take.
We can’t even reach a consensus on whether it’s a cat or dog, much less what breed it it.
“I tend to cut J6P a little more slack that Sammy and a few others do around here.”
I find myself right in the middle. I think there is something to entrepreneurial spirit and self-reliance, but J6P shouldn’t have to day-trade for bread. I also think that eliminating the blue collar set is not good for our country.
At some point I figure I’ll have to lob a rock at somebody. I just have to sort out who and when. Lol…
BTW, X-GS, I’ve really enjoyed the details of your posts and experience over the years. It really helps to get ground level stories when we’re talking about unions, work conditions, international laws, etc.
It’s way more helpful than partisan name-calling.
Thanks. My kids think this stuff is BO-RING!!!!!!
One of the points I keep trying to make, is that the “system” (whatever it is) usually has good reasons for why things are done the way they are done.
Over time, people forget why a law/procedure/rule/whatever was put in place, and start yelling “over-regulation”, or something similar.
Then we get to learn why the law/procedure/rule was put in place all over again. (see Glass-Steagall Act)
“I still can’t get my mind 100% wrapped around Occupy.”
Hint: Time to stock up on popcorn. You can buy a large quantity for a very reasonable price at Costco.