First Quarter SFH Sales And Prices Fall In Massachusetts
The Massachusetts realtors have their quarterly numbers out. “Prices for single-family homes in Massachusetts declined slightly in the first quarter, the first such drop in more than a decade. The Massachusetts Association of Realtors reports the median selling price for a single-family home from January through March fell by about 1 percent, to $343,500.’
“The group said that that’s the state’s first quarterly decline in single-family home prices since early 1993.”
“In the first three months of the year, MAR data show that detached single-family homes sales fell 6.5 percent, from 8,604 homes sold in the first quarter of 2005 to 8,047 in the same period this year. It’s the fourth consecutive quarter that activity in the detached single-family home market has declined from the same period one year earlier.”
“‘With a much wider selection of homes to choose from this year, buyers have become more discriminating. They’re searching the market longer and negotiating harder before purchasing,’ MAR President David Wluka said. ‘With a much wider selection of homes to choose from this year, buyers have become more discriminating. They’re searching the market longer and negotiating harder before purchasing,’ Wluka said.”
“Another factor enticing buyers into the market in recent months is the more plentiful supply of homes for sale. In the past year, the inventory of single-family properties (detached homes and condos) on the market has risen 42 percent, from a monthly average of 38,871 listings in the first quarter last year to 55,338 in the first quarter of 2006.”
“At the current sales pace this represents 13.7 months of supply, an increase from 9.2 months of supply in the first quarter last year, and is the largest supply of homes for sale in 10 years, dating back to the winter of 1996 when there was 14 months of supply on the market.”
From the associations PDF file, single home sales in the following regions were down; Cape Cod -19.1 %, Central -11.4%, Northeast -6.2%. Median prices of single family homes in the following regions; Central -1.1%, Greater Boston -1.3% and Northeast -1.6%.
“A more moderate sales pace, along with softening home prices and a sharp increase in the inventory of unsold homes, all helped to signal the emergence of a strong buyer’s market in the Bay State’s residential real estate market during the first quarter of 2006. Regionally, sales activity in the detached single-family home market fell in six of seven regions of the state during the first quarter.”
“Sales were essentially flat on the South Coast, but more significant double-digit declines occurred in Worcester County and Cape Cod.”
As these numbers aren’t adjusted for inflation, that puts the annual depreciation around 5 or 6%, depending on how you define it.
Or 7 or 8% how I’d define it.
“At the current sales pace this represents 13.7 months of supply, an increase from 9.2 months of supply in the first quarter last year, and is the largest supply of homes for sale in 10 years, dating back to the winter of 1996 when there was 14 months of supply on the market.”
____________________________________________________
No bubble here. Move along…
Winter of 1996 was at the end of a protracted real estate downturn, after everyone “knew better” than to buy homes, as the risk of losing money was common knowledge. I wonder how badly this time around will turn out, given that the news that prices are falling is just starting to appear in print. By the time the illiterati figure out what is going on, prices will be falling much more quickly than they are thus far, and inventory will keep going up for the foreseeable future as well.
where’s homeownerma to explain it all?
Hi Getstucco,
I reckon the last downturn was a total 16-year cycle from “hmm…” moment to “hmm….” moment: 1988 to 2005
Where ” ‘hmm moment’ ” is defined as that peak moment where everybody knows prices are way too high, too many speculators have flooded the market, the dumb money continues to rush in… experts start to say “hmmm….” ….. and the smart money has quietly begun to move out.
17 years, total cycle. 5 year drop, 2 year wallow, 8 year rise (with the latter 3 years as mania), then 1 year peak/”hmm….” That would place the next “hmm…” moment at approximately 2022. Some may laugh at that, but they’d have laughed even harder in 1988 if you told them the same thing about the “hmm… moment” and claimed that the next one wouldn’t take place until 2005.
Would any Realtors (TM) care to comment on whether you still are telling your clients that “real estate prices always go up?”
Yeah it’s kinda odd that there’s not at least one realtor that has come on here anonomously at least and said what they really think about the market. Maybe they are all drinking the same kool-aid.
“real estate prices always go up?”
No realtor has ever said that to me. Only an idiot would believe that. Now, granted, many realtors are idiots. But not one of them has ever had the nerve to say that to me.
I’d fire them on the spot.
Did they ever telling you that betting against Las Vegas was never a good idea?
I am not a relator, but spoke with many this Sunday at open houses. Most tried to convince me that it was a great time to buy, based solely on it being a buyers market and the increased inventory levels. I just looked at the floor and responded “uh-huh”.
“A more moderate sales pace, along with softening home prices and a sharp increase in the inventory of unsold homes, all helped to signal the emergence of a strong buyer’s market
I think “strong” is too strong a word here. The ship’s wheel has turned, but we’ve not yet come about. This is still an awful time to buy. Who wants to have negative equity from day one?
I am an American living abroad and I see this happening not only in the States. It’s a horrible time to buy across the board.
Where are you living? Just curious where you get your perspective?
I think if you remove the apostrophe from the word “buyer’s” in “buyer’s market” — you begin to understand what those using the phrase really mean. It means they’re in the market for buyers. Plural, not possessive.
Funny how they all call it a “buyers market”. It isn’t the bursting of the bubble. It isn’t desperate sellers flooding the market with inventory. It isn’t people without enough cash flow to hold onto their negative cash flow RE investments. It is a “buyers market”.
They used to call it red hot. What do they call it now ? Cold ?
I can’t wait to see what they call it in a few months when prices have fallen 20% and inventory builds even further.
13.7 months of supply is huge. You know that half those people are really serious about selling and most of them can’t afford to wait 6 months to do a deal. Prices will start falling weekly. Spring is the big RE season and it has come and gone without many transactions. Summer and fall are going to be bloodbaths.
Let’s see, flooding in Maine, New Hampshire, Mass…I wonder who should have sold a house a didn’t. Let’s see, hurricane season kicked off today, who should have already sold along the gulf coast? Texas hit by pingpong size hail yesterday, who should have sold last summer to someone from CA? SJV hitting the 100 degree mark and it’s only mid-May, who should have sold to some greater fool from Monterey County before the air conditioner bill goes through the roof or the old unit breaks down and has to be replaced for $7000 or more? Wow, can’t wait to see who wants to buy when the heat strikes down in Arizona.This summer will turn out to be the best reality show to watch so pull up a chair and grab a cold one.
Isn’t it remarkable about how housing markets have hit the skids almost everywhere? Maybe the old wisdom that there isn’t one real estate market but many just isn’t true anymore.
The reason housing hit the skids everywhere all at once is due to:
a) websites like this and to some extent the media educating people.
b) everyone ran out of money. Too many HELs and not enough price appreciation and whammo the bubble stops growing
c) climbing interest rates.
d) nobody left to buy ! Everyone that wants a house has one. People want to move up in housing all the time and nobody wants to buy the lower end houses at the price they are being offered at.
e) too many flippers trying to flip all at once drove inventory up
You know that b and c are the case when people are talking about 50 year mortgages.
The game is over. The jig is up. The market is done.
Now the fun begins. Too bad Greenspan wasn’t at the helm. I’d love to hear him explain the market in his reports.
Too bad Greenspan wasn’t at the helm. I’d love to hear him explain the market in his reports.
RE: Greenspan…
The adulation and political fawining for this guy totally confounds me…It’s like here’s a medal for adherance to the philosophy of eat, drink, and be merry for tomorrow we die.
We want a house. Still don’t have one. That depressed us from 2001-2005. Makes us happy now.
At least we’ve learned patience.
IMO, it’s not been a “housing bubble” as much as it’s been a credit bubble. Here, in San Diego, the housing bubble likely ended in 2001, and the credit bubble took over. This credit bubble is far, far more dangerous than any garden-variety housing bubble. We will be paying for it for many, many years to come.
Just my humble opinion.
I agree with you, credit bubble payed an important role. A lot of people bought houses that they can not afford using suicid loans.
spin spin spin….all adverbs & adjatives..like “strong buyers market”.
buyers (are acting normal again) reviewing their options are taking their time, while sellers are getting ancy!”
Translation:
There is a HUGE over hang of sellesr, while buyrs are nibbling at the edges.—-Classic oversupply!
Three hurricanes have already been forecasted this morning, they think this could be possibly the worst cane season on record…they went as far as saying 5-8 per gallon .
If this is true, I DEMAND that the country STOP bailing out the fools who do not carry insurance. I am sick of supporting stupidity.
And if we hit $8/gallon, anyone other than the truly wealthy will ditch their dumb SUVs on the side of the road and WALK. My only concern on that is the prices of goods jacked up overall and big time inflation due to the cost of shipping the goods into the stores/warehouses.
People losing their homes due to stupidity, Mother Nature taking out other homes, people not being able to purchase oranges because they are $10 a bag…. Hmmm. Who was that on this site who said DEPRESSION? Scary stuff….
$8 a gallon! Where did you see that?
OT but we have had 3 deaths by alligators in two
weeks here in Fl. Maybe, just maybe this will scare some New York/Joisy skanks and some of them will move back.
One year later- I wonder if he still feels this way:
_________________________________________________________
WORKING WITH INVESTORS
Written by David Crisp
30 May 2005
Of Critical importance in working with investors is an understanding of the dynamics of the market. Bakersfield Real Estate has been well known through the years for its cyclical market profile which has been characterized by progression-regression periods of 5-7 years. Many “old timers” feel that we are ready for a short leveling off period followed by another dramatic decline as the Bakersfield Real Estate market has seen in the past. Our answer is that Bakersfield is not the same small-time town as in the past. We are now the 13th largest city in California and we have large city amenities such as big name entertainment and sports as well as great shopping and eateries. Our growth has called investors to Bakersfield Real Estate and interest rates have kept them coming.
If interest rates rise (even dramatically) as many forecast, we theorize that our city may become even more attractive as a destination point for homeowners and investors who want more bang for their buck. Higher interest rates may only serve to price investors out of higher end markets in northern and southern California and send them scurrying to Bakersfield. We are not only one of the top ten fastest growing cities in the United States, but also have an affordable cost of living index and a highly rated climate for business investment. So, when the interest rates go up, properties here will remain in a favorable position relative to other cities in California and the nation.
Our team has the mind of an entrepreneur and a keen understanding of the investment process. If you need assistance in determining the best investments for your portfolio, call our office or send us an email. Ask for an appointment to discuss your needs. If you are buying property to rent, lease, or resale we have information on active listings, on comparable sales or rents, and on a loan package tailored to your specific needs. Carl Cole, David Crisp and the entire Crisp & Cole Team will help you to network your way to success in Bakersfield Real Estate investment.
Is Crisp from your office?
I have no association with these guys. They have simply come to represent the insanity of this local market. 20 somethings who use to work at fast food joints, who are now RE “moguls”. They appear to be nice young guys who are very ambitious.
Oh, because I saw an office with that name while “vacationing” in Bako.
Wluka: “Another factor enticing buyers into the market in recent months is the more plentiful supply of homes for sale.”
LOL. The spin is becoming ludicrous.
This is where the Realtors® shift gears and go into the “here’s soft landing we’ve been expecting”, “homes that are priced ‘realistically’ still sell well”, and the always famous “the market is returning to equilibrium”.
This is what you get when everybody starts to wake up at the same time.It reminds me of the quote “Nowadays people know the price of everything and the value of nothing.”
Anyone with bird’s eye view of what is happening to the market in New England/MASS due to the heavy rains. Heard Gov Mit saying that the rain was coming, if it hadn’t already hit folks in MASS.
Also, per other posting above. Don’t forget SJV for CA will be hit with floods due to the high snow fall in the Sierras.
Bakersfield is still a dump. And an overpriced one at that. The article above is just too funny.
I agree this my town is a dump. LOL. However, it use to be a nice place to raise a family and maintain a good quality of life. I can make as much as living in LA (1 1/2 away) and live like a king. Well, not anymore. Prices are up 250% in the last 5 years. The previous 20 years they were up 5%. Once my kids finish school I will move and never look back.
Because of the heavy rain there is very few open houses during the weekend, and I think there won’t be many transactions going on in this weather.
How do you tell when a realtor or mortgage broker is lying through their teeth?
Their lips are moving and sound coming out of the mouth. LOL
This house was sold in Feburary for $488000, A similiar house is for sale now for $450000. I am not sure if I can get it even lower.
http://stwmls.mlxchange.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1969482803&s=RIS&t=RIS
don’t pay anymore than 350k for that house. its going to keep going down. just rent a house for now. just think of the prices like the flooding here in mass. they are receeding due to insane build up. whoever paid $488K for 1950’s 1600 sq footer got caught up in all the buyer histeria. good luck
There is a lot of flooding, but other than that it is business as usual. Lowell and Lawrence got hit pretty hard and raw sewage is being dumped into the Merrimack River (due to shut-down of a treatment plant). Some other towns that were flooded pretty bad were Peabody, Saugus, and much of southern NH. They are saying it is the worst flooding in 70 years. It is very location dependent. Some towns are hardly affected at all except for the occasional flooded basement.
Hey Rob,
Are Wentworth Inst. dorms flooded again? They had that problem so many times when we lived there.
hehehe…Patrick Duval a “progressive” Dem candidate for the MA governorship just gave up his board of directorship position with Ameriquest.
The Globe ran pictures of his 10,000SF summer home in the Berkshires. Think he had another in Brookline.
His mortgage payments were like $40k per month.
I could have respected the guy. if he had the ballz to stick it out with the dirtbags at Ameriquest, but like a rat, he was more than willing to jump off a sinking ship.
Such is life in MA…
It is official!!!! Foxnews has a story on its finance section about the housing bust!
Check it out.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,195550,00.html
sorry
fox news (it is neither) = swill for the brain
I would rather watch that misbegotten show where Flavor Flav got to choose from a bevy of mildly retarded/bi-polar girls to be his next hoochie momma.
Yes indeed, but who watches fox? Once they, indeed see that the housing bubble has burst, how close do you think that the illiterati are to a panic after it is shown in fox news?
I am not sure on Wentworth, but basically any property that typically floods in severe rains flooded pretty bad. They had pictures of properties in Melrose where the entire yard was underwater. The kids are riding around in canoes in Peabody and wake boarding on the common in North Andover.
Thanks for info, Rob