The Scope For Real Estate Is Simply Unlimited
Smart Company reports from Australia. “Outspoken economist and consistent housing bubble denier Rory Robertson says those who continue to rent in the hope that prices will crash are backing the wrong horse. He says many of the ‘doomsters don’t actually know very much about local housing and home lending markets, don’t own their own home or – commonly – both. Ask the dopey bubblemen about how much of their old-age pensions will be left for living expenses (including tasty dog food?) once (expensive) rent is paid.’”
The Sydney Morning Herald in Australia. “Foreign developers have grabbed a 30 per cent share of Australia’s apartment market, a trend not seen since the Japanese office and hotel development boom of the late 1980s. ‘Asian developers, predominantly from Singapore, are leading the pack, accounting for 92 per cent of all apartments being proposed or developed by foreign companies,’ CBRE executive director Kevin Stanley said. ‘Development activity in Australia involving foreign companies has reached levels not seen in more than two decades.’”
“Releasing the Australian Property Monitors’ property market outlook, senior economist Andrew Wilson tipped 3 to 5 per cent growth in median house prices nationally and for Sydney. Monique Sasson Wakelin, managing director of Wakelin Property Advisory, said the two recent interest rate cuts would be the catalyst for growth and agreed with the APM forecast for Sydney and Melbourne. ‘I think that would be about right, precluding anything terrible happening overseas.’”
TODAYonline from China. “The luxury apartments of Versailles Residentiel de Luxe La Grand Maison, located next to a polluted river in the third-tier coastal city of Wenzhou, have not yet been built but are already on sale for as much as 70,000 yuan (S$14,415) a square metre. That is more than double the annual income of the average Wenzhou resident, who would have to save every penny for 350 years to buy a 150 sq m home in this development.”
“But even the few who can afford it seem to be having second thoughts. ‘We have been told to say publicly that everything is going very well and our apartments are selling even though none of the other developments in the city can sell theirs,’ says one sales assistant who asks not to be named for fear of losing his job. Prospective owners have paid deposits on only a dozen or so of the 198 apartments on sale at La Grand Maison. ‘Prices are dropping fast and everyone is waiting for them to fall further before they think about buying,’ says the sales assistant.”
Bloomberg on China. “A two-year lending binge and the government’s plan to transform Hainan, in the South China Sea, into an international tourism destination helped fuel a 48 percent surge in Sanya’s home prices last year, making it the nation’s best-performing property market. As China in 2011 switched gears with policies such as increased deposit requirements designed to curb speculation, Sanya’s home prices have dropped 28 percent since last December.”
“Zhu Lei, a property agent for the Serenity Coast luxury residential and hotel complex in Sanya, recalls clients carrying suitcases of cash to shop for holiday apartments last year. ‘We didn’t even have time for toilet breaks because there were just too many clients,’ Zhu said.”
“I differ with Mr Conrad Raj, in his commentary ‘A lack of foresight?’ (Dec 16), on the timing of the Government’s latest property measures. Except for the brief pullback after the sub-prime mortgage bubble in the United States had burst and the subsequent Lehman Brothers collapse, Singapore’s housing prices have been not only rising but have exceeded the previous high.”
“Cash-rich foreigners and permanent residents, especially from China and the region, are capitalising on our low interest rate as well as stable economy and currency to snap up property for investment or family stay. Our land scarcity has also triggered the en bloc phenomenon, whereby another cash-rich group enters the market to buy replacement and investment properties. And they are less price sensitive, often willing to offer/accept higher prices.”
“This scenario, together with the increasing demand from first-time buyers, has created a fear that ‘if I don’t get in now, prices will go higher’, despite unit sizes getting smaller. Every new project is either fully or nearly fully sold. Like the Americans prior to their housing collapse, Singaporeans still think that one can never get it wrong when buying property.”
The Khaleej Times. “The largest and most diverse exhibition of Indian Properties — Indian Property Show opens at Airport Expo Dubai today and will run until Saturday. Sponsored by Citibank UAE and Investors Clinic — India’s leading real estate consultancy, this year’s show will have more than 70 developers participating from across India.”
“‘The scope for Indian real estate market is simply unlimited. It does not resemble a bubble that will burst. An unhindered growth for the next two decades is almost sure because outsourcing business in the country entails a huge demand for commercial buildings and urban housing, besides improvement in infrastructure across the country’ said, Sunil Jaiswal, CEO — Sumansa Exhibitions — organisers of Indian Property Show.”
Mississauga.com on Canada. “It sits at the very top of Mississauga’s already iconic tower, comes with four parking spots and priority use of the elevator — and it can be yours for $3.2 million. In a deal likely to generate a lot of international interest, the owner of the penthouse suite is putting the unit up for sale. ‘It will be the most expensive condo ever sold in this city,’ said Mississauga ReMax agent Sam McDadi, who’s handling the transaction for the anonymous Argentinean owner.”
“For the past two years, he was No. 1 on the Toronto Real Estate Board for total dollar volume, beating out some 30,000 agents. ‘I’ve already had several serious enquiries from abroad, from places like China and Brazil,’ said McDadi, whose marketing includes taking out ads in international publications.”
The National Post in Canada. “If their New Year’s resolutions involved selling more suites, Toronto’s condominium developers got that and more in 2011. While the final sales numbers for the year are still to be determined, the Greater Toronto Area’s condo market has already reached record highs this year, beating out 2007’s former record of approximately 22,500 condo sales.”
“Investors are coming out to the sales centres in droves; in fact, some buildings have been 90% to 100% investor purchased. ‘It really reflects Toronto’s place in the global economy,’ says Joe Vaccaro, acting president of Building Industry and Land Development Association. ‘It has been recognized as a safe place to invest, and we’re seeing that internationally — money is making its way into Toronto. And real estate is a hard asset that foreign investors support and have an appreciation for.’”
The Globe & Mail in Canada. “Investors rushed to buy Toronto condos in the good times, now there is a worry that they will rush for the exits as the economy weakens and they realize that profits are hard to come by in an overbuilt market. A record number of condos were built in the past year in the Greater Toronto Area, with some 43,000 units under construction. Anecdotal evidence suggests many of the units were sold to investors who plan to rent them out.”
“‘As an industry, we’re getting pretty accustomed to people telling us that things are out of control and unsustainable,’ said Tridel Group of Companies senior VP Jim Ritchie, whose company plans to build eight new condo towers next year. ‘If this market had sprung up overnight, then maybe I’d understand. But this has been a solid contributor since 1967, and has been doing well for the last 10 years. This is not a blip.’”
The Star in Canada. “Millions in deals could be on the verge of unravelling at the exclusive Trump tower with just a few weeks to go until Toronto’s newest luxe hotel and condo development is slated to open its doors. A number of condo purchasers — including Irish investors who reportedly bought a whole floor of the five-star project being built by Talon International Development Inc. — have tried to back out of deals inked pre-recession.”
“‘The lesson here is that developers have to be very careful to set a realistic (completion) date or unhappy purchasers may take advantage of the failure to complete and successfully terminate,’ says Toronto lawyer Bob Aaron, who is representing a U.K. couple refusing to make final payments on an $830,588 Trump condo/hotel unit.”
“Second thoughts are ‘very normal’ in condo projects, says Talon chairman Alex Shnaider, a Russian-born steel-industry magnate who raised eyebrows back in 2005 when he announced Canada’s first Trump tower at condo prices more than double everything else being built in Toronto. ‘It’s up to purchasers to make an informed decision. They aren’t buying cupcakes.’”
“The doubling of real estate prices across the GTA over the last decade, coupled with the hottest condo construction market in the world, has created a get-rich-quick mentality, say lawyers and realtors. Many buyers aren’t even running the complex contracts past lawyers first, as seems to have happened here. ‘I have no doubt that the magic of the Trump name and the pictures of this fabulous tower in downtown Toronto had a certain appeal. People thought they could make a lot of money,’ says Aaron.”
“One Toronto realtor has been working behind the scenes to help a ‘distraught’ client who put $160,000 down on a 578 square foot unit in Trump and still owes more than $450,000 but can’t get bank financing. The agent has considered rallying other buyers in a ‘mass walkaway’ from deals.”
The Edmonton Journal in Canada. “With a gloomy outlook for the Canadian housing market, which they see as over-valued and flooded with supply, economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch are warning that home prices are likely to drop between five and 10 per cent in the first half of 2012. In 1982, for example, for every $1 of income available for borrowing, the average household could borrow $6; now, that same $1 can be levered up to $20, the authors noted. They also pointed to longer maximum amortization periods as a factor in inflated valuations.”
“‘Lower interest rates explain a significant portion of elevated household leverage ratios,’ noted Ryan Bohren and Sheryl King, Canadian economists at the bank. ‘If mortgage rules were reverted back to where they were in 2000 and the maximum amortization for an insured mortgage was 25 years, instead of the current 30 years, we believe home prices would almost 20 per cent over-valued,’ the authors said. ‘If we removed both of these effects (low rates and longer amortization periods) on our fair value model, home prices would look about 35 per cent overvalued,’ they said.”
“Canada….home prices are likely to drop between five and 10 per cent in the first half of 2012″
Oh Canada!
“another”
fixed it for you
“Ask the dopey bubblemen about how much of their old-age pensions will be left for living expenses (including tasty dog food?) once (expensive) rent is paid.’”
Ask the dopey real estate investors how much will be left even to buy dog food in retirement after they are foreclosed on myriad properties, their credit is ruined, and they have to make a high monthly rental payment just so they can have a roof over their head.
From the TO article:
‘According to government figures -which most analysts believe understate the reality - average housing prices more than doubled in the last four years nationwide, while in Beijing and some other regions, the price increase was more like 150 per cent. Data are incomplete but analysts say the price of an average apartment in a Chinese city is now about eight to 10 times the average annual income nationwide; in cities like Beijing and Shanghai, the ratio is closer to 30 times.’
‘Even at the height of the United States real estate bubble in 2005, the price-to-income ratio for the whole of America peaked at about 5.1′
‘The growth model China has followed for the last few years, which has involved a whole lot of property construction, is running out of steam,’ says Mr Mark Williams of Capital Economics. ‘People have not priced in the coming re-balancing of China away from commodity-intensive development and this has to be bad for economies like Australia, Brazil and Chile.’
‘Faced with chronic revenue shortfalls but forbidden to run deficits, local governments have come to rely on land sales (the ’sales’ are actually only of land-use rights of up to 70 years) for up to 40 per cent of their income…’Right now the high housing price is not due to limited supply - it is because of endemic speculation but the government doesn’t combat speculation because high prices keep GDP growth and revenues high,’ says Professor Yi Xianrong at the China Academy of Social Sciences, a government think-tank. ‘China’s real estate bubble is undeniably the biggest in history but our property taxes are lower than Zimbabwe’s; the situation is laughable.’
Yeah, dog food might be on a table somewhere in Australia, maybe even that of Mr Robertson.
Actually - canned dog food is pretty expensive.
You can eat alot cheaper on Raman Noodles, Tomato Soup and rice/beans.
The tasty dog food thing is interesting in another context. Remember the put downs of people that thought there was a bubble? That there was going to be a permanent underclass of (dog food eating) non-house owners?
‘Weakness in Housing? Forget It’
DECEMBER 20, 2005
‘The November numbers put to rest the pessimists’ claims that the market is popping or about to. If anything, it’s gaining steam…Virtually no evidence points to any wavering in this sector, despite pessimists’ efforts to keep finding signs of weakness.’
‘THE NEW KING OF THE REAL ESTATE BOOM’
‘April 18, 2005. ‘Look at what happened in San Francisco in 2001 and 2002, when the area lost 100,000 jobs,’ says Toll. ‘Prices fell, yet 12 months later, they hit new record highs. Today a down cycle means that only two people want to buy your house instead of ten.’
‘For Toll, what looks to many people like pure craziness is perfectly normal, a reflection of a new supply-and-demand equation that will last a long time. He’s an outspoken believer that, yes, the world really has changed this time. That the traditional boom-to-bust housing cycle is now a smooth upward climb. That housing prices will keep rocking practically, well, forever.’
‘We’ll reach the point Europe reached 20 years ago, where families pay 45% of their income on housing and married couples have to live with their parents for years before they can afford houses,’ he says.’
Argument by insult pretty well defines that logic can’t hold.
Cat food is a lot cheaper than tuna, too, but with similar ingredients.
I was thinking, it’s been quite a while since we’ve seen any really good insults like that here.
It’s been a long time since we have had a quote from a too-clever-by-half real estate investor posted here, too.
I welcome other people having different opinions on things. Other people have different tastes, motivations, ideas of fun - everything. And that’s great, it makes the world go round, leads to an interesting existence.
What frosts my cookies is when other people make bets that go bad, and then rig a system that makes me pay for them. That’s what’s happened with the housing bubble and the bailouts.
Are you saying that you don’t like frosted cookies?
“This scenario, together with the increasing demand from first-time buyers, has created a fear that ‘if I don’t get in now, prices will go higher’, despite unit sizes getting smaller.”
Shrinkage coupled with inflation fantasies can end with disappointment and embarrassment.
Playing to one of Man’s Basic Fears.
The Sydney Morning Herald in Australia. “Foreign developers have grabbed a 30 per cent share of Australia’s apartment market, a trend not seen since the Japanese office and hotel development boom of the late 1980s.
And how did that work out?
It’s mind boggling:
‘“For the past two years, he was No. 1 on the Toronto Real Estate Board for total dollar volume, beating out some 30,000 agents. ‘I’ve already had several serious enquiries from abroad, from places like China and Brazil,’ said McDadi, whose marketing includes taking out ads in international publications.’
This guy is the top seller for 2 years in what’s possibly the bubbliest market in the west, and he markets to foreigners! Irish “investors” buying a floor in Trumps condo-tel? People walking around with suitcases of cash? Indian property seminars in the UAE?
Jeebus, like one guy said, this suckers gonna blow!
“…90% to 100% investor purchased. ‘It really reflects Toronto’s place in the global economy,’
Yes, but I don’t think that means what you think it means.
Anecdotal information from Singapore & India:
The prices apparently went down in Bangalore, India because a lot of IT fluff personnel lost their jobs. I asked one of my colleagues here how these people are faring. “Oh, they still can get a job, with reduced pay”. But are they paying the mortgage.
Well they (including family) pay almost 30 to 40% in cash as a down payment. Then the whole family chips in to pay the monthly nut. The consequence is “severe belt tightening”
In Singapore, most middle aged people already have bid on a flat and own one. Most rich people are buying the second flat for their kids with a lot of cash down. The kid is given an ultimatum not to miss the loan payment. The result is zero discretionary spending.
This will not work in western economies since no one here can tighten up, control spending keeping to a minimum compared to Asians.
Also, only the rich and a very few middle class are buying the condos in Singapore and India. IMHO, the rich (or so called aspiring to be rich class) from these countries (& China) can afford to lose their shirt in these investing episodes. Actually, I think it will be for the good.
There is not much the government can do in China & India to protect the rich/ investor class because 90% of the population is poor. They will be up in arms for food and a revolt will be on hand.
Other than the Miss Universe pageant there’s not one thing associated with the Trump name that isn’t total b___s___t, whether in Toronto or anywhere else.
You read these stories, and all you can do is shake your head. I can understand how living in a crooked authoritarian country that censors media and blocks internet sites might affect one’s perception of whether a housing bubble exists, but after the U.S., Spain, and Ireland crashed, there’s simply no excuse for what’s happening in Canada and Australia.
What a pathetic waste of resources, energy, and government credibility these last few years have been.
In my opinion Trump is a pompous windbag. Everything he touches eventually turns to crap.
Like the Republican Party? -
You mean like the crypto republicans who’ve been running Detroit, Cleveland and Chicago into the cr@p heap?? Who wodda thunk all this time those libodems were actually repubs!!
Just how much is the worth of living in a French sounding apartment complex located on a polluted chinese river???
TODAYonline from China. “The luxury apartments of Versailles Residentiel de Luxe La Grand Maison, located next to a polluted river in the third-tier coastal city of Wenzhou, have not yet been built but are already on sale for as much as 70,000 yuan (S$14,415) a square metre. That is more than double the annual income of the average Wenzhou resident, who would have to save every penny for 350 years to buy a 150 sq m home in this development.”
Hey! A polluted river is a sign of a healthy economy, one that is unencumbered by business “unfriendly” regulations that drives “producers” elsewhere.
If you’re gonna poop in the pool, don’t complain later that it’s gross. Its the price of having a “vibrant” economy (or so we are told).
I bet the Chinese are thankful everyday there is no EPA to stifle job creation.
I am alternately amused and saddened by the fact that even the Chinese feel the need to add cachet by using European names for truly banal real estate projects.
And another thing. There was a photo a couple years ago of a just-completed Chinese apartment building that had simply fallen over sideways, like someone had tipped a cow. Why that episode didn’t deter an entire generation of buyers is a mystery to me, unless the suppression of information there is so profound that no one outside the immediate vicinity found out.
http://www.truthorfiction.com/rumors/c/china-apartment-falls.htm
I was discussing this with a relative today: as far as I’m concerned, the quality of anything made in China — food, electronics, toys, buildings, clothing, whatever, is immediately suspect.
“This scenario, together with the increasing demand from first-time buyers, has created a fear that ‘if I don’t get in now, prices will go higher’, despite unit sizes getting smaller. Every new project is either fully or nearly fully sold. Like the Americans prior to their housing collapse, Singaporeans still think that one can never get it wrong when buying property.”
It is funny how history repeats itself.
Like the Americans prior to their housing collapse, Singaporeans still think that one can never get it wrong when buying property.”…….
Ask a Realtor(tm). There’s never been a better time to buy…….
and my favorite…….”if you don’t buy NOW, you’ll be Priced Out, forever.!!!!!
Actually, if you ask one, there never is a bad time to buy. It’s always a good time to buy, under any terms and conditions. Ask one.
They’re “professionals”, “experts”, “knowledgeable” and are only there to try and help you…………ho ho ho. I needed a good laugh this morning.
And so soon, too. I thought decades had to elapse first.
Ok - to SUM up.
Bubbles STATUS from around the world:
America - the bubble has popped a long time ago (4 years) - with some notable exceptions (NYC, etc.)
Canada - the bubble has just popped - like in the last few months. It is all down hill from here.
Australia - the bubble is just about to pop. The sharp stick is soooo close.
China - approaching max bubble capacity - will pop in the near future. And it will be the biggest pop of them all.
‘America - the bubble has popped a long time ago’
Oh really? Here in Flagstaff the median house is still 5 times household income, which is what some say was the peak of US ratios. I watch the Tucson foreclosures, and regularly there are several in one day priced at $400k and up. I’m sure there are many US markets like this.
When the history of this event is written, some things will stand out. I recall that prices fell a good deal in Australia around 2004-05. China supposedly clamped down on speculation in 2005. Toronto had several condo tower failures just a few years ago! Massachusetts was the first large market in the US to stumble, but is still too high. Florida and Vegas went straight down. For whatever reason, some markets took off again, while others have never stopped falling. IMO, the end result will be an even harder landing for those that bounced.
How can this be anything but a long and drawn out process? Interest rates still at historic lows. Extend and pretend still the rule. Escalating deficits. Non-employment cranking up now for years relentlessly. None of these economic factors are going to correct short term, yet none of them are near sustainable.
Something I have to remind myself of from time to time is, there has never been a mania like this in history. So it follows that the outcomes could be pretty much anything, but not likely to be pleasant. China is an interesting example. They seem to have claimed the title as biggest global bubble, despite the govt having the power to do whatever they please. It’s looking like they fell for kicking the can down the road too, and I’d bet they will suffer a lot because of it.
On the interest rates; as the Canadian economists point out, this only serves to hide overvaluation, leading more people to jump in. Same thing is happening in the US.
Oh really? Here in Flagstaff the median house is still 5 times household income
YMMV. Here in Loveland we are approaching 3x. IIRC we were around 4-5x at the peak and most of the hair cuts have been at the upper end. A former 400K house is now 300K, or less. As you get closer to 200K prices have held up better (a 200K is now 170K) . New home construction here remains non-existent (some apartment construction though).
I watch the Tucson foreclosures, and regularly there are several in one day priced at $400k and up. I’m sure there are many US markets like this.
Keep in mind that, within the city of Tucson, the median income is in the low 30s. Which means that the $400k house is affordable to very few people here.
Are we judging affordability on one generation, or two, or three?
The new paradigm shifts the affordability index as generations combine.
No matter how much they detest each other.
it seems like every year I post one comment and it’s the same old comment.
Sorry once again for everyone on this blog’s complete failure to predict an accurate bubble and bubble outcome for Canada. Every year I mention that Canada distanced itself from the the U.S. fraud bubble, the latter being well documented in this blog.
And every year I keep asking why there aren’t any actions against the fraudsters. mind boggling… I kinda wish someone would make a book out of this blog’s archives and other blogs showing how ridiculously blatant the fraud was.
2011 is the best year ever for Canada real estate prices. We all wish it would tail off but it’s likely symptomatic of the rest of the world being so completely messed up. It’s not that Canada is great. It’s just the rest not living up to their potential.
Not so surprisingly, I noticed this article when checking your links showing Canada’s per capital wealth surpassing U.S. wealth.
I took the time this morning to read some of yesterday’s stupid comments about LOW interest rates and why they were SO Low, if the market was in danger of too much lending………one person got that right: CENTRAL BANKS Controlling Interest Rates by Multiple manipulations.
There is NO free market in interest rates and Lending. It is all manipulated by the FED, ECB, IMF, BIS, WB, China, RBS, Australia, and a bunch of other crony capitalists.
I wrote a short piece blasting the FED about “joining forces” with the European ponzi planners to manipulate world markets and world wide interest rate policy. It’s not their mandate. It’s outside their role.
I see all this Bubble-making Real Estate shenanigans and I can only think of one thing………Where is the money coming from to support these ridiculous pricing schemes??
There aren’t that many “rich” people to buy up all these properties, and from the evidence of one story, it sounds like it’s nearing the end when the “best agent” is trolling for rich folks from around the world.
I must conclude that BANKSTERS have provided the fuel for this speculation. Certainly, there isn’t enough “saved” capital to support a massive rise in mortgage payments, is there???
What is the role of “finance” and Banking in all these fantasy bubble-land investment scenerios?? Everyone trying to ‘get in’ before they get ‘priced out’…….hhmmm?
We love watching HGTV Property Shows. Seems people in Canada need to put the bong down that America was smoking 5 years ago. We love seeing All in the Family Archie Bunker type rowhouses in Canada with $700,000+ price tags, and those are the handyman specials. I love the show with the guy who says you need to renovate (spend more money, get in more debt) to rent your basement out, funnier still is the amount in rent these investors (I am sorry, I mean suckers) expect to obtain. I want to put a pie in the face of the host of Property Virgins who shows couples homes that they can’t afford. Property Brothers both need pie in their faces too. They show people houses that are 1million (in freezing cold Canada) and then say you need to buy a 700k fixer. We use to watch housing prices in warmer areas like Naples, Vegas, Palm Springs, and see dumps going for $500k, knowing this will not end well, and today it’s 50% off sales.
I would like to see HGTV do follow ups to those US properties from 2003 to 2006. I’d especially like to see what happened to the first time buyers. Unfortunately this wouldn’t happen, but it would be good fun.
I fantasize about the same thing, Bad Andy. A followup show along the lines of “House Hunters Flashback”, which quickly recaps their hunt & purchase, and then checks back in 4 or 5 yrs later to see what happened to their purchase, and what it’s worth today or what it re-sold for recently.
That be SO awesome…
I want to see the follow-ups to HGTV “International House Hunters”
Especially the one who bought in Spain in 2005 and the ones who bought in Tunisia and Egypt right before the “Arab Spring”…
Don’t forget Greece!
There was a follow up to My First House or a show like that. Several people had buyers remorse.
I remember one guy who bought a bigger condo in Chicago outside the area he had really wanted say if he could do it again, he wouldn’t have bought his condo.
HGTV had a great show on a few years ago called Buy Me. It featured the most greedy and/or delusional people who wanted top dollar for a crumbling old dump. I remember one homeowner who honestly didn’t understand why a foot of standing water in the basement should repel buyers.
My favorite was the Crazy Rainforest Condo Lady. No description could do her justice - you’d have to see her to believe her. I’d love to see a ‘where are they now’ show on her.
My biggest gripe about the HGTV property shows is that most of the time you really don’t know when the show was filmed. Was it 3 months ago? 6 months ago? A year? Longer? We watch and look at the prices and can only guess at what year the show was shot. In most cases we watch and say regardless of the year it was filmed, these folks (who are buying) are out of their ever loving tree. The one show on HGTV that I do like is the one where they can’t sell the property and a guy comes in to help them do comparisons with homes for sale nearby and reality is finally shown to the sellers, that one cracks me up - they should rename the show to “I’d like to buy a vowel please”.
I remember in the early years, HH wouldn’t mention actual prices, and wouldn’t say what city the houses were in! You know, the most interesting information. Probalby the Realtors’ doing? But they did loosen up after awhile.
hah ! well said. meanwhile as a Canadian I have to laugh over the U.S shows where the realtors are selling totally sterile, gated up, 3 million dollar houses while bonged out in their bath robes.
“The Scope For Real Estate Is Simply Unlimited”
Uh-huh…
Dec. 21, 2011, 11:52 a.m. EST
Existing-home sales revised down 14%
November sales up 4% from October; median price falls to $164,200
By Ruth Mantell, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — An average of 14% fewer existing homes were sold annually between 2007 and 2010, according to revisions reported Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors, pointing to a housing market that was even weaker than previously believed.
During the revision’s time period, there were average annual sales of about 4.42 million existing homes, compared with prior estimates of about 5.16 million. NAR revised the data to correct for some sampling and data-reporting problems.
While the revisions changed sales levels, general trends remain the same, NAR noted. From here on, the trade group said, data will be re-benchmarked annually. The revisions don’t impact prices, NAR added.
Analysts said the downward revisions reflect the depth of weakness that the economy had already been feeling.
“As far as judging the current state of the housing market, we think these revisions have little impact since they lower the base from which the sector is recovering by at least as much as they lower the most recent sales data and the revisions have only minimal impact on house prices,” wrote analysts at RDQ Economics in a research note. “If we look at the most recent data, we see a pattern of steady but moderate price declines and gradually recovering sales volumes.”
Also Wednesday, NAR reported that existing-home sales rose 4% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.42 million, compared with 4.25 million in the prior month. Sales are up 12.2% from the prior year.
Economists were looking for a gain from the prior month, echoing other recent positive housing-sector data. On Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that new construction of houses rose in November to the highest annual rate since April 2010, with multi-family activity leading the monthly U.S. growth. However, overall levels remain low.
“The level of sales seems now to be starting to rise,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist with High Frequency Economics, in a research note. “These data are consistent with other numbers pointing to real stirrings in the housing market.”
You know they’re revising these numbers lower to spin the “recovery” right?
It was just a few days ago that the NAR’s sales numbers for the last few years were revised downwards substantially. No sooner did that happen than the stock market rose 300+ points “on good housing news.” You can’t make this stuff up.
If you can’t convince people that today’s numbers are anywhere near normal, Plan B is to make yesterday’s numbers look even more terrible than today’s. Presto-chango: Suddenly real estate is going up again!
Holiday greets from the front lobby of the
BEST WESTERN PLUS Abbey Inn
St George, Utah.
Many who read and post here will remember that St George is a former housing bubble ground zero.
I had a nice chat with the fellow behind the front desk. Seems he has many friends here who went bankrupt during the real estate bust. Some were home builders or otherwise in construction, others, speculators. Now they find their extended unemployment benefits pay more than they could make in their former occupation, so they remain unemployed.
I wonder how the St George housing market is shaping up these days?
St. George housing market showing signs of recovery
by Mark Havnes
The Salt Lake Tribune
First published Dec 03 2011 11:19PM
Updated Dec 4, 2011 01:01AM
Cedar City • New statewide figures from the Utah Association of Realtors show the St. George real estate market, hardest hit by the housing recession in Utah, may be starting to recover.
The numbers show an uptick in home sales and signed contracts in September, the most recent figures available. Housing inventory in the area also fell, another indication that homes are selling.
And a new report from Fiserv and Moody’s Analytics predicts home prices in the St. George area will rise by 7.9 percent in the second quarter of 2012 over the same period in 2011. According to the same report, St. George will outperform the country: While U.S. prices are forecasted to fall 3.6 percent by next summer, St. George prices are expected to rise nearly 8 percent during the same period.
The report, based in part on data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, shows home prices in Washington County, which includes St. George, peaked in the fourth quarter of 2006 and then fell about 41 percent through the second quarter of 2011. The current median price of a home in St. George is about $150,000.
Celia Chen, a senior director at Moody’s Analytics, said the agency looks at data from a wide variety of sources, including Fiserv, the National Association of Realtors and RealtyTrac. Fiserv counts deed documents filed with counties when houses are sold.
David Stiff, chief economist for Fiserv, a financial technology and services company that compiles figures for clients on more than 380 housing markets in the country, said St. George was hit hardest in Utah by the housing collapse, with Provo coming in second. St. George was a bubble that grew as investors drove up housing prices in the previous decade. The bubble finally burst in 2008, but prices are expected to stabilize and rise next year.
“There is a large correction going on that will attract investors who want to jump in at lower prices,” Stiff said.
Lori Chapman, who has been selling real estate in St. George for 30 years and is president of the Utah Association of Realtors (UAR), said that between 2003 and 2004, the real estate market was “an insane time” in St. George — borrowing was easy, expectations were high and building outpaced demand.
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“This scenario, together with the increasing demand from first-time buyers, has created a fear that ‘if I don’t get in now, prices will go higher’, despite unit sizes getting smaller. Every new project is either fully or nearly fully sold. Like the Americans prior to their housing collapse, Singaporeans still think that one can never get it wrong when buying property.”
Whoa, this guy is channeling the master!
“Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell Realtors says that “South Florida is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past.” He predicts that a limited supply of land coupled with demand from baby boomers and foreigners will prolong the boom indefinitely.”
This is quite interesting information, because lately I have come to this article about Calgary housing bubble, which predicts 2.2 percent grow in housing price in Calgary. It uses various sources of information and looks reliable.
I want to point out, that we hear a lot of negative forecasts lately, but the housing market and prices in Canada are still raising. Good example is Toronto or Calgary.
My concern is about what can we expect in the future - steady raising or dramatic fall of prices?