December 27, 2011

Bits Bucket for December 27, 2011

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




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Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 01:21:50

OK so this is it. 2012 is the year I stop being a renter.

The landlady gave me this Christmas gift: $300. month rent increase (no rent control on our SFH) and told me I had to clean up our garage. WTF, I am a grown-up, have rented this house for 12 years, never (really, never!) paid the rent late, and have paid her close to 250K in rent over those 12 years. And my garage may have a lot of stuff in it but it is crazy organized.

I am done with renting. I have been reading HBB for 5-6 years, following the market, waiting for the crash. Can’t wait any longer.

We are the middle class that is being squeezed - the folks everyone is talking about: 2 public school teachers, in our late 40’s, with 2 kids.

Oh yeah, and 2 dogs and 2 cats. No one will rent to us, even though our credit is stellar and our jobs are (knock wood) solid. At this point in our lives, with renting another house a near impossibility (and getting rid of the pets is not an option), the only other choice is buying.

We do not want to leave the city. This is our home, our jobs, our kid’s schools, our community. Yes I know it’s expensive here - but I love San Francisco. Plus we both have some seniority with our jobs.

So the family is now officially on “austerity measures” (goal: 40K in down payment by the summer from scrimping, borrowing, saving, we have half that saved) and I am researching every possible program for people like us.

Maybe I am crazy and this won’t be possible and we’ll have to move to the ghetto (there are foreclosures in Richmond, CA for under 100K, whoopeee!).

Do not want to take money from our retirement, either.

Please tell me I’m not crazy. Or maybe that’s for a mortgage broker to say. I’m seeing one this week.

Comment by Muggy
2011-12-27 03:06:51

You’re not crazy.

I felt like this about 1.5 years ago, but honestly I couldn’t do anything about it because the typical house we wanted was out of range, and still is, really.

Have you countered in writing? I would try that, and even ask her the reason for the rent increase. Tell her everything you just said…

I didn’t know you were both teachers. Side conversation: I’d love to know where you stand on current reform measures. On one hand I am against seniority, because it keeps people like you and me locked. On the other hand, I’d hate to lose my job because I disagree with a crazy admin. (seen plenty of those in my days). I also think charters are silly.

Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 10:56:37

Muggy,

It’s a crappy time to be a teacher. Apparently we are the cause of most of the country’s woe’s. All those low-income kids who aren’t learning and our huge salaries and pensions causing the country’s financial ruin.

While I am pro union, the teacher’s unions protect bad teachers, and that really has to change. Too much money going to admin. and school/district bureaucracy while we end paying for pencils and other supplies out of our own pockets.

Don’t get me started on charter schools and Teach for America. That’s all part of the right’s agenda to privatize everything.

I think teachers should be paid as much as doctors. But teacher training should be as challenging as med school and the status of profession needs to change so that only the smartest and most dedicated became teachers.

I’ve worked at tough inner-city schools and I have also worked at decent public schools where most of the kids are middle class and white. Show me a failing school full of middle class or rich kids and then I’ll accept merit pay.

Ahhh, don’t get me started.

We just need a place to live.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 12:00:30

“It’s a crappy time to be a teacher.”

Yup. Apparently the 1%ers would rather live in a Third World country and hang on to their wealth horde, than continue to fund the education system that once positioned the U.S. to send a manned space craft to the moon.

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Comment by Montana
2011-12-27 14:02:29

We spend plenty on schools, but in makes littledifference to the student population sf is talking about.

 
Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 14:34:48

There is a real and direct correlation between poverty and student achievement. This has been researched and documented very thoroughly.

 
Comment by jane
2011-12-28 06:09:14

There is an intervening variable that is the root cause. Traits of character that produce generational dependency also generate poor students, poor employees, and poor spousal units.

There are always some who break the cycle by swimming against the tide.

It is the character that is instilled by the parents, not the discretionary income.

Of course, as fewer babymommas have the inclination to do anything other than their nails, the contrarian kids become fewer and fewer. Why bother? It’s a lot of extra work, and the alternative is free housing and health care for doing nothing.

Just my opinion, based upon observation.

 
 
 
 
Comment by jeff saturday
2011-12-27 05:20:52

“The landlady gave me this Christmas gift: $300. month rent increase”

“and have paid her close to 250K in rent over those 12 years”

That Bich!

Images by Tyrone Greene
Performed by Eddie Murphy (date unknown)

Dark and lonely on a summer’s night
Kill my landlord
Kill my landlord
Watchdog barking
Do he bite?
Kill my landlord
Kill my landlord
Slip in his window
Break his neck
Then his house
I start to wreck
Got no reason
What the heck
Kill my Landlord
Kill my landlord
C-I-L-L
my l a n d l o r d

http://www.faqs.org/faqs/tv/sat-night-live/song-lyrics/ - 53k

I feel your pain and frustration, we are @ $120k in 6 years to DB LLs. I will now go wait for the military police to knock on my door.

 
Comment by SV guy
2011-12-27 06:02:53

You’re not crazy, it’s our formerly free market that is crazy. The home you buy will go down in value very likely (like $250K in rent isn’t).

Truth be told, if I was single I would have sold everything in 2004 +/- and tried to wait for the bottom. I had a good idea of what to expect but completely missed the concept of Governmental meddling to this degree.

Responsible people who have saved and lived within their means are being slowly bled by the criminal thugs running the show presently.

P.S. Stay away from the ghetto!

Comment by palmetto
2011-12-27 07:27:45

“Stay away from the ghetto!”

Now, that’s just wrong. The whole idea is to “equalize” the middle class, so that:

1) They don’t get ideas above their station in life

2) They can have rich, cultural experiences they’ve been deprived of all these years.

 
Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 11:00:00

The home you buy will go down in value very likely (like $250K in rent isn’t).

Well that’s a good way to look at it.

Listen, we’ve been in the city for 22 years. At the same job for 14. I really don’t see us leaving here unless the housing situation forces us. So if we rent, we pay up the butt, and if we buy, we pay up the butt…

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-12-27 13:40:42

So if we rent, we pay up the butt, and if we buy, we pay up the butt…

Because it’s San Francisco.

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Comment by Muggy
2011-12-27 14:23:02

“Because it’s San Francisco.”

Lol… because of the butt, or the price, or both?

 
 
Comment by AmazingRuss
2011-12-27 14:06:15

Is living there worth destroying yourself for?

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Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 16:15:30

“Is living there worth destroying yourself for”

Living in a beautiful place with a tight knit circle of friends and neighbors and a workplace that doesn’t discriminate (we love our gay ghetto), a place where I can surf year-round, where I can pick lemons and avocados from my backyard (yes we do!), where I can train for marathons and triathlons in the most awesome and beautiful places (the road biking and mountain biking is really good here, plus plenty of open water swimming and good trail running), etc etc.

I love it here.

I chose to be a teacher, knowing it was never going to be a lucrative profession. I chose to have kids, knowing they are expensive to raise, I chose to have pets because they bring joy and laughter into our home…

…I did not choose, like so many people, to have the entire country enter into the biggest economic mania (the housing and credit bubble) and therefore make housing a problem for all of us.

Well, all of us except the upper class and upper middle-class, and those who by sheer luck of age got in at the right time.

If I were 10 years older, I would have been at the perfect place to buy a house in the mid-late 90’s, probably avoiding this whole mess. But back then I didn’t have kids, nor a partner, was still getting into my career, and wasn’t ready to settle down.

Timing is everything.

 
Comment by The_Overdog
2011-12-27 23:28:13

My opinion: It’s just a house and just money. Save up some bucks and buy if you can and want to live there. If it goes down in value and you don’t feel like paying for it anymore, then sell it if you can.

Live where you want to live.

I think people have done a good job of offering alternatives and if you really want to make a rational decision, then take them into account. For some of us, it’s easy. My house was 3X (almost 4X) the space for 2X the rental cost. But for others it’s harder. But again, it’s just money. Make the decision you want to make.

 
 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2011-12-27 06:08:34

I will tell you that you’re not crazy.

But I’ll probably be the ONLY one to tell you you’re not crazy. Other HBBers — many of whom are watching us in the trenches merely for their own amusement — will tell you that you should avoid debt slavery at all costs and wait for the market to drop 75%, as it most surely will…in their minds.

Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-12-27 07:55:57

Is the monthly cost associated with buying less or more than rent for the same property?

It really is that simple.

Comment by Anon in dc
2011-12-27 10:03:03

It’s not that simple. The big issues is having four pets.

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Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-12-27 15:48:28

If Toto and Morris are your priorities, may I suggest a pet forum?

 
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2011-12-27 19:46:14

I’d say Toto and Morris are huge priorities. In fact, when someone gets an animal, it is a LIFE LONG commitment.

 
 
Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 11:03:16

Is the monthly cost associated with buying less or more than rent for the same property?

In some neighborhoods, yes. We will not be able to afford the neighborhood we live in now, and love. But I am seeing SFH in the 400K range in a nearby neighborhood that I do like (southern edge of the city). Rents for a whole house there are about $2400.

So depending on the size of our down payment they are almost equivalent.

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-12-27 13:46:22

But I am seeing SFH in the 400K range in a nearby neighborhood that I do like (southern edge of the city). Rents for a whole house there are about $2400. ..So depending on the size of our down payment they are almost equivalent.

Then buying might not be a bad idea. I’d counter the rent increase in writing to see if you can halve it using the documented figures above to show landlord you can buy for the cost of renting so why rent? Bluff big, but it’s not really a bluff. Then if you get a lowered raised rent, stay put for a year saving everything you’ve got. Then run the numbers again on buying in one year. IMO. Good luck.

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 12:03:17

“Is the monthly cost associated with buying less or more than rent for the same property?”

How does this simple comparison take into consideration ongoing housing price declines in California? A 6% loss in market value translates into a $30,000 loss on a $500,000 San Francisco ’starter home.’

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Comment by oxide
2011-12-27 12:40:37

Because those 6% losses aren’t evenly distributed, prof.

You could very easily have the dregs decrease 7% to worse dregs, a few high end homes decrease 10%, and decent middle class housing not drop at all. You’ll still get your “average” 6% drop. Meanwhile, sfrenter will put down another $20K in rent.

It becomes a race against time. We are paying rent faster than housing is falling… not taking into account that houses are incurring repair and maintenance costs as we speak.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 12:48:30

“…a few high end homes decrease 10%, and decent middle class housing not drop at all…”

If the lowermost high end decreased 10% and the uppermost middle class didn’t drop at all, then you would have a situation where lowermost high end homes sold for less than uppermost middle class housing. It seems pretty obvious that this arbitrage would last for a vanishingly short period of time, as anyone who could afford either a lowermost high end or uppermost middle class home would afford the former, and the latter would sit until they were repriced to sell for less, reflecting their inferior quality.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 12:50:26

would afford choose the former

I blame my bad editing on annoying rock-Xmas music blaring at Starmucks…

 
 
 
 
Comment by Overtaxed
2011-12-27 06:14:49

You’re not crazy (but, this coming from a guy who bought last year). At some point, there’s a risk you’re willing to take (more downward home pressure) for the gain that you perceive (more stability, potential upside, and a place to call your own). Those gains are worth something, it’s just a measure of figuring out what they are worth to each person individually. Above all else, make sure that the money makes sense, and make sure you have a 10 year timeline when you purchase your home. If you can rent the house you’re trying to buy for 1/2 the monthly taxes/insurance/MTG payment, then you need to move on or continue renting (sorry). If the rent and MTG payment are approaching parity, then you can feel reasonably comfortable (again, with a 10 year time frame) that you’re not going to be making a terrible decision.

The thing that we tend to do on this blog a lot (because we are all housing bears) is only to look at the downsides of ownership. There are downsides, some of them life changing (like owing 500K on a house that’s worth 200K). But there are also upsides, some of them just as significant. I bought for a few reasons, most of the standard ones (place to call my own, make changes to the house, etc), and also, because I think that the Fed is eventually going to realize that the only solution is to “inflate it away” and will create a significant amount of monetary inflation to keep the banks/borrowers solvent over the next 5 years (of course, CPI will stay flat.. Somehow). In that case, you’re better to be a borrower than a lender, especially when you can borrow at 4%.

Even if nothing changes, IMHO, inflation is >4% annually, so, in effect, you’re borrowing money for “free”.

Finally, depending on the price of the house, don’t downplay the impact of buying on your taxes. For those of us fortunate enough to still have relatively high incomes, buying is quite the boondoggle of government subsidies. This year it’s probably going to save me ~10K in income tax (mtg interest and outlandish FL property tax) by owning.

Comment by Carl Morris
2011-12-27 08:08:32

Even if nothing changes, IMHO, inflation is >4% annually, so, in effect, you’re borrowing money for “free”.

Doesn’t that assume your salary is also inflating at >4%?

 
Comment by GEG
2011-12-27 09:14:15

“This year it’s probably going to save me ~10K in income tax (mtg interest and outlandish FL property tax) by owning.”

Did you take into account the standard deduction?

People make this mistake all the time. They look at the amount of interest/tax paid and think, I get 25% or 30% or whatever bracket, off that.

Standard deduction is $12K a year. If you have $25K in tax/iterest, you really should only count the deductibilty of the additional $13K not the full $25K.

You say you saved $10K. If you’re in the 28% tax bracket that means you paid $35K in taxes and interest. But in reality only $23K of that should be counted as savings via owning since the first 12k you’d get no matter what.

And did you really have 35K to deduct? That’s a $750K mortgage and $5K property tax bill. Not really the typical buyer’s circumstances.

Comment by Overtaxed
2011-12-27 11:42:45

Yes, but, as you correctly point out, that’s just my personal situation. Also, property taxes in FL are shockingly high (mine are close to 10K) and I’m single (so my std deduction is only about 6K, not the 12K you mention). Finally, I’m in the 33% bracket.

Absolutely, as you mention, not a typical situation. But, it’s worth mentioning, I’m sure that there are others out there who are in a situation like mine. If you’re buying an expensive house and you’re in a high tax bracket, the deduction for interest and taxes is not an insignificant number. I have around 30K in deductions that come out of my income in the 33% bracket; that’s real money.

Now… Don’t get me started on how any of this makes sense. It’s probably the most patently unfair system I’ve ever seen in my life; why I should get such a huge advantage from buying when most normal income folks will get almost nothing (or nothing) from the housing deductions seems almost criminal to me. But, be that as it may, for those buying expensive houses with incomes that push them into high brackets; it’s a not insignificant number (close to 1000/mo for me in savings). Of course, that’s assuming that the AMT doesn’t kick in for me this year; I’m right on the edge, any more deductions and I start to get a dollar for dollar AMT liability.

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 12:06:57

‘…and also, because I think that the Fed is eventually going to realize that the only solution is to “inflate it away” and will create a significant amount of monetary inflation to keep the…’

1. Can they?
2. Will they?

If both answers are ‘yes’, suggesting the Fed will conclude that taxing the real value of Baby Boomers’ fixed-income pensions and Treasury Bond investors’ future returns is the only way out of the debt trap, then what stopped Japan from following the same course over the past two decades?

 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2011-12-27 06:49:31

“Oh yeah, and 2 dogs and 2 cats. No one will rent to us, even though our credit is stellar and our jobs are (knock wood) solid.”

Have you tried looking or just assumed that was the case because it’s been difficult in the past? If you find a couple of options that are comparable to what you are paying now, that would give you leverage.

Does the LL have any basis for the increase? Is she asking for it just because she heard rents were going up and thought she could get it, e.g. (even if they’re not)? We’ve seen lots of sellers with asking prices not tethered to reality that got a hard dose of reality.

Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 11:09:37

Does the LL have any basis for the increase? Is she asking for it just because she heard rents were going up and thought she could get it, e.g. (even if they’re not)?

The city just went around and marked a ton of sidewalks to be repaired (they do it every 25 years) and the home owner is responsible for the repairs. Since this is a corner house, it looks like it’s going to be a 8-10K job. She’s passing the cost on to us.

Rents are going up here (my sister says the same thing is happening in NYC). There’s a boatload of money in the Bay Area.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 12:11:38

“She’s passing the cost on to us.”

Is everyone else in the neighborhood bearing similar increases in rent, to cover the sidewalk repair costs? It might be worth asking around.

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Comment by seen it all
2011-12-27 15:11:50

For 6 months, the owner at 72 Central Ave, 06716, has had zero nibbles at his ask of $299,000 3/2 1760 sq. ft. - check the many pretty pictures on zillow. Nice property- cutie patootie house as oxy says, on a lake.

He put out an ad to rent it at $1,700 /mnth and said he was “flooded” with apps.

Now he’s thinking of 1800 and moving into a studio apt.

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Comment by GEG
2011-12-27 07:11:16

Rent vs. buy is nothing more than a math problem. Rent when it’s cheaper to rent, buy when it’s cheaper to buy. The garage thing is an emotional issue brought about by your landlord. Ignore it. Never bring emotion into a business decision. It’s no different than the “dream house” nonsense out there.

That being said, your landlord does have the right to ask that you keep the property in good order. And if that means keeping the garage clean, I don’t think it’s that unreasonable. I have 2 rentals myself and if one of my tenants had the garage loaded with crap I’d tell them to clear some of it out as well. It can be a liability if stuff is piled up high, falls over and smacks someone on the head. Might also be a fire hazard.

If this is THE reason for your sudden decision to buy, I’d suggest you first talk to the landlord and see why cleaning the garage is suddenly an item.

Comment by palmetto
2011-12-27 07:25:02

Very good advice, GEG. I’ve been lucky to have had landlords over the past few years who have been pretty much live and let live. As long as the rent is on time and the property is tidy and the neighbors are not disturbed, no problems. In fact they don’t want to be bothered. And neither do I.

Often emotions are at the root of a decision to buy. Owning a home can provide some stability, as in avoiding the dictates of a landlord with regards to rent and use of the property. To some, that’s worth paying more a month in PITI.

Comment by oxide
2011-12-27 07:43:49

as in avoiding the dictates of a landlord with regards to rent

That’s a financial decision, not an emotional one.

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Comment by palmetto
2011-12-27 08:44:06

Ever seen a financial decision morph into an emotional decision?

No?

Then you’ve never been married, had kids, lent a few bucks to a friend, thought you “deserved more” than you got, paid the IRS, etc.

 
 
 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-12-27 07:58:43

GEG,

The renter owns the garage, not the landlord. If it’s a hazardous area then the renter must remedy. If I want to stage equipment in a rented garage, that’s my right.

Comment by GEG
2011-12-27 08:22:48

RAL,

Most rental agreements have a clause in them stating the landlord can dictate what you can or cannot store on the property. They’re written vaguely enough that the power rests with LLs in determining that stays and what goes, even if it seems unreasonable to the tenant.

I specifically have a clause in my lease agreements saying no boats or RVs or any motorized vehicles, other than passenger cars are allowed on the property, either in the driveway or in the garage. Also no paints, no oils and a whole list of flammable items. I am renting houses with a garage. I am not renting garages to be used as workshops or storage units.

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Comment by Awaiting
2011-12-27 09:48:28

There are even REIT apt/condo buildings that have changed the rules for tenants/owners with work trucks or autos with business signs on them. How’s this for insanity. If you own one, you can’t park close to the building, so you don’t bring down the look of the property for perspective tenants/condo owners (bubble created 50/50). I personally think that’s going a bit too far.

 
 
 
Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 11:16:18

If this is THE reason for your sudden decision to buy, I’d suggest you first talk to the landlord and see why cleaning the garage is suddenly an item.

It’s not just the garage - it’s the fact of living with a sanctimonious busybody who treats her tenants like her children. I’m too old for that crap.

We love our neighborhood and love our house. But things do change once you get older and have kids, as we do. Maybe it just boils down to the fact that I really don’t like people lording over me just because they can.

I’ve had good bosses and bad bosses: the worst bosses are the ones that boss you around just because they like the feeling. I left my last school because of a principal like that.

Comment by Awaiting
2011-12-27 11:44:49

sfrenter
I hear ya loud and clear. Unless it’s a fire hazard or a rodent generator, the LL should keep out of your business.

As a former owner and now a renter, we hate it. There is nothing as wonderful as owning your life because you own the house. HOA’s are freak’in LL’s too.

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Comment by Lenderoflastresort
2011-12-27 16:56:20

We love our landlords. If they asked us to clean up our cluttered garage, we would do so. It would only be right.

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 12:14:46

“The garage thing is an emotional issue brought about by your landlord. Ignore it.”

It might not be an emotional issue, as messy garages could provide nesting sites for vermin and also create a fire hazard.

I suggest not ignoring it, but rather sucking it up and cleaning the garage if you want to keep living there. This is where ‘emotion-free’ thinking should come into play: Would you rather clean the garage, live somewhere else or try to talk your landlady out of the condition? It’s your decision.

 
Comment by Lenderoflastresort
2011-12-27 16:50:56

My advice is to clean out the garage and the entire property. De-smell and fix any minor damage immediately. Shampoo the carpets and do a deep cleaning. Then invite her over for cookies and tea and tell how much you really appreciate your 12 year relationship with her. Let her talk about #’s first. Then pay the increase for another year. If yooz guys have not saved more than 20K after reading this blog for 6 years, you have not been paying attention. You need about 100k.

Do your kids live with you? If not, get an apt for 1000 per month. save the rest. Live below your means in a big way for 1 or 2 years. Then buy.

Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 19:26:59

Lenderoflastresort:

Been there, done that. I am an OCD neat freak. Our house is immaculate, and looks 10X better than when we moved in.

Everyone who walks in here comments on how clean and uncluttered our place is.

Our kids are school-aged. Without kids, we’d have saved a lot. Yes, I know, we chose to have kids, No regrets.

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Comment by seen it all
2011-12-27 07:13:06

SFrenter you are crazy.

You should find homes that have been for sale over a year which you like and then start working on the owners and convince them to rent to rent to you , maybe with an option to buy.

Comment by oxide
2011-12-27 07:27:20

If a home has been for sale for a year, then you have to question why no one has bought it. If the house hasn’t sold because there’s something wrong with it, then you don’t want to live there rental or no. If the house hasn’t sold because the price is too high, then the owner likely overpaid for the house, and the rent will be high in order to feed the alligator mortgage payment.

Comment by palmetto
2011-12-27 07:31:39

“then you have to question why no one has bought it.”

Maybe there’s no one who can.

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Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 07:59:49

The Bay Area is a big place and the nabes near SF and Silly Valley command a premium. Cheaper nabes can be found in places like Vallejo . Of course they are more “ghetto” than the west bay and a nasty commute will be the norm.

Isn’t this the problem with any big city that has a core of good paying jobs?

 
Comment by GEG
2011-12-27 08:05:51

Then you can’t say the market is overpriced.

 
Comment by Itsabouttime
2011-12-27 09:52:17

Many people want to stay in a city and have absolutely no idea what good options there are just across a bridge or through a tunnel. Brooklyn is a case in point — most Manhattanites and Manhattanite wannabes have no idea what good, more reasonable neighborhoods there are in Brooklyn. They’d rather pay 60% of their earnings in rent or 75% of their earnings to borrow a home (commonly called “owning”) in Manhattan than a more reasonable amount in Brooklyn.

Lots of people in SF have the same myopia. No offense meant, but if you and your spouse think everything outside SF is ghetto, then for teachers you have a lot to learn, and I am very sorry for the students you are teaching, as well as the rest of us for the children you are bringing up who the rest of us will have to deal with for the next 75 years.

IAT

 
Comment by GEG
2011-12-27 10:03:43

IAT,

Whaaaaa? You want them to live with “those people” across the river/bay? Surely you jest. Might as well ask them to move to - horror of horrors - Texas. Come on man, decent people don’t live outside SF/Manhattan.

 
Comment by Muggy
2011-12-27 10:48:11

“I am very sorry for the students you are teaching”

Really? Why?

 
Comment by Itsabouttime
2011-12-27 11:14:35

Because someone who is so myopic as to think anything outside SF is ghetto is basically ignorant, and thus probably teaches students lots of falsehoods. Please note, outside San Francisco includes Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Berkeley, Fremont, Sausalito, and so on. Here’s some statistics (albeit from the 2000 census, because the ACS is too difficult to quickly access — however, exact levels may have changed, but relative levels have not):

City and Median family income
Berkeley 70,434
Fremont 82,199
Menlo Park 105,550
Palo Alto 117,574
Sausalito 123,467
San Francisco 63,545

Educational attainment of adults over 25
City, BA only, Graduate Degree
Berkeley, 29.9%, 34.3%
Fremont, 26.5%, 16.7%
Menlo Park, 30.9%, 30.7%
Palo Alto, 31.4%, 40.3%
Sausalito, 40.9%, 29.0%
San Francisco, 28.6%, 16.4%

So, I ask you, which of the above locales is more ghetto? Looks like the east, south, and north bay should shun the SF teachers, not the other way around.

IAT

 
Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 11:24:48

Lots of people in SF have the same myopia. No offense meant, but if you and your spouse think everything outside SF is ghetto, then for teachers you have a lot to learn

Uh NO, that’s not what I said. There are “affordable” houses in SF, but not in neighborhoods that I would feel are safe for our two young kids.

I grew up in Manhattan, have lived in some pretty rough neighborhoods throughout my 20’s, and would buy a house in a rougher neighborhood if we didn’t have kids.

We are both public school teachers who teach in inner city schools, and have done so for a while. We are in the trenches every day.

Yes, yes, I know there are other places we could move outside of SF. My sister just moved from the lower east side to Bed Stuy in Brooklyn because she needed more room. Shereally misses Manhattan.

OK, I’ll admit, I am a myopic city dweller. The suburbs are not for me.

 
Comment by Itsabouttime
2011-12-27 11:38:48

What you said was:

We do not want to leave the city. This is our home, our jobs, our kid’s schools, our community. Yes I know it’s expensive here - but I love San Francisco. Plus we both have some seniority with our jobs. . . .

Maybe I am crazy and this won’t be possible and we’ll have to move to the ghetto (there are foreclosures in Richmond, CA for under 100K, whoopeee!).

In other words, leaving the city means moving to the ghetto.

Relatedly, there are a LOT of people who do “good” things, like contribute to charity, teach in the trenches, and so forth. But, a lot of those people, not all, but a lot, have a very condescending, patronizing attitude toward those they are allegedly serving. They don’t see those people as down on their luck or having been dealt a bad hand, or even as responsible for their situation. Instead, the patronizers see them as second class people, some lower form of life. Your claim that if you leave the city the next stop is the ghetto is consistent with such a patronizing view; in your view it appears there is only your “good people in SF” and ghetto.

Now you replace one falsehood (everything outside SF is ghetto) with another (everything outside SF is suburban). If you think Berkeley, of Occupy Berkeley, the naked guy, and the free speech movement is the suburbs, well, its hopeless. Sounds like you’ve spent a dozen years on one side of the bay bridge — a common problem with SF residents. But, fyi, Yahoo local lists 736 coffee shops in Berkeley, but only 708 in San Francisco, and San Francisco is physically bigger. A check of many other cities in the bay area would be equally illuminating. But, keep on thinking only ghettos and suburbs ring San Francisco. And have fun paying the price premium for the delusion.

IAT

 
Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 11:53:08

“In other words, leaving the city means moving to the ghetto.”

NO - leaving the city means moving to the suburbs.

DO. NOT. LIKE. THE. SUBURBS.

Finding a place IN THE CITY for a family of 4 that is reasonable priced (ie., under half a million dollars) does mean moving to a sketchy nabe.

Yes, I am a city slicker. Grew up in Manhattan. SF still feels like a small town to me sometimes.

Add to the mix that I am surfer (the ocean is my religion) and that we are a gay couple with 2 kids who do not feel like going out and being the token gays while our kids get bullied in school….

My partner lived in Oakland and Berkeley and Kensington before we met.

So shaddup: this is our home and short of a devastating earthquake that demolishes the entire city and makes it completely unlivable, we are staying.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 12:26:53

“Cheaper nabes can be found in places like Vallejo.”

Or Richmond (East Bay) — our former hood.

Of course, the low price tag comes with the sound of gunshots outside at night, the risk of carjacking, and the occasional release of toxic emissions from the nearby refineries and chemical plants. And the public schools are to be feared.

 
Comment by Itsabouttime
2011-12-27 12:51:40

First, the biggest city in the bay area is San Jose, not SF. Second, as I already indicated, many locations outside of SF and SJ are cities, not suburbs. If you don’t want to live in those places, fine, but at least have the integrity to just say that rather than mischaracterize them to justify your decision.

From the looks of it you are pretty good at making delusional claims to justify doing something you want to do against all reason, e.g., buy a house in SF. So, you should fit very nicely in the set of underwater homeloaners in a year or two. Congratulations!

As for your rudeness, stop telling anyone to shut up. You’re the person who went on this blog asking if you are crazy. If you present your story for evaluation, don’t get upset when we evaluate it. What kind of teacher are you, one of those where students are supposed to agree with whatever brain-dead thing you say? Is what you really want validation, or evaluation? If you want validation, you said you have two dogs — tell them your story, and I am sure they will jump up and down and validate whatever you want to say.

However, from my vantage point, and from your continued elaboration of your situation, it looks like you are crazy or, if not, at least totally ignorant. You really think people in Berkeley or Oakland are going to be looking at you because you are a gay couple? In Berkeley? In Palo Alto? In Oakland? That’s your reason, or one of your reasons, for thinking you’ll be out of place in the bay area outside SF?

You’ll be out of place outside of SF alright, but because of the narrowness of your mind, nothing else.

IAT

 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 14:27:44

So shaddup: this is our home

Fine, then pay up and shut up yourself (quit complaining about how expensive it is). And clear the garage while you’re at it!

 
Comment by seen it all
2011-12-27 15:36:43

I like hearing the complaints. No whining but a little complaining is OK.

I’ll decide on the merits. In the instant case:

LL has twenty people waiting to take your place. Similar to season ticket holder miffed at price increases.

I could never bring myself to buy in such an expensive place prone to quakes.
(Full disclaimer: SF is the most beautiful city I have ever seen.)

 
Comment by Itsabouttime
2011-12-27 16:21:54

Interestingly, it looks better from any vantage point east, north, or west of the city.

IAT

 
 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-12-27 09:34:58

“If the house hasn’t sold because the price is too high, then the owner likely overpaid for the house, and the rent will be high in order to feed the alligator mortgage payment.”

+1. My preference has been for landlords who have owned the property a LONG time—e.g. no mortgage. They prefer tenants who are stable and trouble-free, and seem less concerned with getting the maximum possible rents.

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Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 11:26:44

My preference has been for landlords who have owned the property a LONG time—e.g. no mortgage. They prefer tenants who are stable and trouble-free, and seem less concerned with getting the maximum possible rents.

Property taxes are pre-Prop 13 here (she pays about $800 year) and has owned this house forever. But she bought a new house last year and took out a second on this one.

And she’s old and getting dotty, I believe.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-12-27 11:57:18


And she’s old and getting dotty, I believe.

That doesn’t bode well…

My condolences on a good situation turning less good, sfrenter. :-(

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 12:18:13

“…then you have to question why no one has bought it.”

Usual reason: Holding out until the market recovers to the 2006 price level.

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Comment by Lenderoflastresort
2011-12-27 17:08:35

The house hasn’t sold because it’s unshowable.

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Comment by Posers
2011-12-27 08:08:19

I agree. SF is crazy because he continues to want it all. Wants to live in San Francisco proper, rent cheap or buy cheap. It ain’t gonna happen unless one scales down one’s expectations rather significantly.

Same for you, oxide. To expect realistic anything in Washington D.C. is to be delusional. That place is beset with candy crapping unicorns, as you HBBers like to say.

Comment by Muggy
2011-12-27 09:32:03

Yeah! Another troll. No doubt someone whose pay is tied to the shadow inventory, bank solvency, UHS commissions or likewise.

Welcome aboard!

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Comment by Posers
2011-12-27 12:55:04

Actually, I’m an elementary school teacher also. Want me to prove it? Give me your telephone number and I’ll call you. Then I’ll demand a public apology here.

I’m a teacher because I want to be. Yeah, the pay sucks, but it was my choice. Can’t handle it yourself? Too bad for you.

You chose to be a teacher. So did sf renter. Don’t like the fact that you don’t get paid enough to live as your little *selfless* heart desires? Get a different job that pays more. Got it?

Man, I’m sick of whiners who think they ought to be able to live in the manner they choose - regardless of what they themselves choose to do for a living, or how productive they are. People really need to check their sense of entitlement at the door. That includes you, Muggy.

Next time, understand who you are talking to first before hurling inaccurate invective.

 
Comment by Patrick
2011-12-27 14:01:04

SF Renter

You are both late 40s, pay 2400 mo, have kids (assume about 15) are tenured teachers therefore gross abut100k I think and have savings of $20,000.

Your children will probably go to university soon (in about three years). Your total added rent (after negotiations?) will be about say $9,000.

You like it where you are - you broke the sidewalk - why shouldn’t you fix it?

I think your age and lack of savings indicate you should be planning more for retirement (forced) in about 18 years and university fees for your kids than in spending money on a house that is likely to go down, wiping out your savings and possibly your good credit.

 
Comment by Muggy
2011-12-27 14:32:26

“Man, I’m sick of whiners”

Comment by Posers
2011-11-05 14:58:16

They certainly are, aren’t they?! My credit union just charged me a $2 fee for sending 1 sheet of paper (my statement) through the mail.

 
Comment by Muggy
2011-12-27 14:35:46

“Don’t like the fact that you don’t get paid enough to live as your little *selfless* heart desires?”

FWIW, I’ve never complained about my pay. The price of housing, yes, but my pay, no.

 
 
Comment by Anon in dc
2011-12-27 10:08:16

Oxide, Are you set on Maryland. Have you looked at the Virginia side of DC?

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Comment by oxide
2011-12-27 12:51:50

No way in hell am I commuting on the Beltway across the American Legion Bridge and then getting on 270 every day. Nor do I want to take Metro.

And pricing in NoVa is even worse — the $250-$270K shacks in MoCo would be $400K in NoVa.

If I wanted a long commute I would look for something further north, past Olney/Brookville.

 
Comment by Posers
2011-12-27 13:02:28

Simple: Get a new job and move away from D.C. Why do you continue to punish yourself? Your ongoing frustration level seems very high. You talk about the prohibitive cost of DC-area housing here almost every day. Why antagonize yourself? DC is that special with all the crime, summer heat, high taxes and political baffoonery?

Move to a place where real, non-elitist people live and you might enjoy life more. Ever consider that? Seriously?

Conversely, maybe you ought to concentrate your time on getting married if you aren’t already. One salary will never “do it” in a metro area defined by graft.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2011-12-27 13:21:14

If I wanted a long commute I would look for something further north, past Olney/Brookville.

If you look at the New Brunswick metro station, you’ll see there are housing options out in scenic (seriously, very scenic) BFE. It’s a legit metro line.

 
Comment by polly
2011-12-27 13:27:18

Posers, you don’t actually read this blog very much, do you?

Oxide has addressed absolutely everything you mentioned in that post numerous times: moved elsewhere but the job market isn’t stable anywere but here, isn’t actually looking in the city, most complaints aren’t that housing is actually prohibitive in cost but rather that the stock that is for sale at a reasonable cost is in terrible shape, etc.

You don’t know what you are talking about.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2011-12-27 13:58:52

Oxide, sorry, it’s the BRUNSWICK MARC station. Not metro.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brunswick_%28MARC_station%29

 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 14:31:30

“Why do you continue to punish yourself?”

Because most good paying jobs are in places where housing is unaffordable?

 
Comment by oxide
2011-12-27 15:04:50

Polly, you’re wrong in one respect.

I’ve never quite been able to explain to people why I apparently am not a good enough woman to have attracted a permanent mate.

 
Comment by polly
2011-12-27 16:08:44

I didn’t consider the comment about getting married a serious part of the conversation. Just a pathetic stab at being nasty to you.

 
Comment by Posers
2011-12-28 21:25:06

Polly - surely you jest. Oxide is always complaining about how awful the DC housing market is.

And what’s this comment about no other stable job areas? Tell me, what are the unemployment rates for college graduates in Des Moines? Omaha? Tulsa? Denver? Austin? Indianapolis? There are numerous other places Oxide could find a “good” job that pays. But no, such places aren’t “good” enough.

Yes, there is life outside Washington DC, New York and San Francisco. It’s all subpar, ‘natch, but it’s there.

Seems to be a good many San Franciscans, New Yorkers and Beltway folk feeling the pain all of a sudden. Good! Maybe it’ll prompt you to vote for people who won’t spend massive amounts of YOUR money.

 
Comment by Posers
2011-12-28 21:34:04

“I didn’t consider the comment about getting married a serious part of the conversation. Just a pathetic stab at being nasty to you.”

Of course you’d take it as a nasty comment. All I was doing was speaking the truth. Good luck making your housing dreams come true in a coastal city on one income. Why oxide, you or anyone else is single is immaterial.

Get over yourself and face the facts.

Millions of single people have left Big, Important Cities due to cost. They figured it out many years ago, got a grip, checked their ego, and found happiness elsewhere.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-12-27 07:47:23

Eyes no not what to say sfrenter…

x12 years x1 location + x2 kids + x2 adults = yous accumulate “stuff”

x12 years x1 location = $tability, why the $udden change? $eems like $omething has.

Forced location mobility is not pleasant, but as Debussy noted:
“They that raise the rent first, is the one who has run out of ideas first” or something like that…

I would go to where local seniors are living in groups alone, post a sign:
Evil landlord of the East,threatens Dorothy & family & Toto, anyone here have a rental? let’s talk.

I say this as eyes was wandering around early in the am at Balboa San Diego, A woman carrying too many things dropped a package. Eyes helped her carry it to her office (she was an administrator) we chatted, turns out her Mother had recently pasted, and she (an only child) had received x2 house/rentals in really decent nabes in LA. It was troubling her awful + constantly trying to manage them, said she just wanted non-troublesome renters not really focused on “market value rents” exploitation$ theme. Wanted to know iffin’ eyes was interested. (Eyes thought of my sister but alas fate intervened.) Eyes just tossing out things here, wishing you some kind of wonderful might comes about! ;-)

 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2011-12-27 07:50:39

Rent or buy, it’s time to move.

$300 increase? Bullcrap.

Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-12-27 08:10:37

Smarter landlords raise the rent incrementally every year. I lived in a professionally-managed place and the rent went up ten bucks every year (this was back in the Good Old Days, when my rent was ~$250/month). It was hard to get excited over such a small amount, but in the long run it was equal to the occasional- and more infuriating- large rent increase.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 12:36:28

We took one $300 increase over the seven years we have rented the same place. Generally speaking, our landlords have been very fair about the rent — kept it in line with averages for our area.

The one sneaky detail: We pay 4br rent on a 3br home which was converted to 4br by putting up a wall in the middle of a supersized master bedroom. Makes me think we could play the same game if we decide to buy a 3br place some time this year — i.e., buy a comparable 3br model with a much larger master bedroom than normal humans require, and put in another wall to ‘upgrade’ it to a 4br.

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Comment by aNYCdj
2011-12-27 07:51:30

I advise anyone with dogs to wave some BENJAMINZ in front of a landlord say an extra $500 or even $1000 as a extra pet deposit

Waving those BENJAMINZ in a landlords face can do wonders for your no pet lease.

Oh yeah, and 2 dogs and 2 cats. No one will rent to us, even though our credit is stellar and our jobs are (knock wood) solid

Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-12-27 10:01:00

Dogs are up there with kids as one of the top reasons people become homemoaners.

Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 11:30:25

Dogs are up there with kids as one of the top reasons people become homemoaners.

My itals are coming out funny.

Even without pets, it can be very difficult to find a place to rent when you have 2 kids.

Yes, we are animal lovers. It is a big reason I want to own. I would really like to have a pygmy goat (sorta kidding).

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Comment by Itsabouttime
2011-12-27 13:06:37

How did I know you would have a desire for a pygmy goat? Probably think that’s a compromise from your original desire for a unicorn, and probably still expect the goat to defecate rainbows.

sfrenter’s delusion just gets better and better. Now watch him tell me to shaddup, even though I didn’t make him reveal his desire for a rainbow defecating goat.

IAT

 
Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 16:24:04

“even though I didn’t make him reveal his desire for a rainbow defecating goat.”

Fuggeddabout it, I want a golden egg laying goose.

And sheet-ite, I’m fromn New Yawk, so don’t take the shaddup thing so personally.

You shaddup.
No you shaddup.

Lighten up, dude.

And don’t assume I’m a dude either.

 
Comment by Itsabouttime
2011-12-27 18:30:22

Lighten up? You’re the insecure person coming on a blog of strangers looking for validation, and telling those who question your assumptions to shuddup. I just calls ‘em like I see’s ‘em, whether anyone likes it or not. Pretty chill.

As for whether you’re a dude or not, I guess I just assumed a woman would be more unlikely to write off the entire 8 non-SF counties of the bay area without checking anything. My bad.

IAT

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 12:39:51

“Dogs are up there with kids as one of the top reasons people become homemoaners.”

I suspect there is some irrational asymmetric thinking involved, as a homeowner who enjoys the love and loyalty of a pet views the cost of cleaning up and repairing pet-damaged property differently than does a renter whose landlord tries to build the extra costs into the rent.

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Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 16:25:47

The dogs, nor any renters, did not make the city send someone out to make the sidewalk repairs. They do it every 25 years. Sux that the homeowner has to pay (they are making homeowners pay for all city tree maintenance, too!).

My neighbors already paid a contractor to do theirs.

 
 
Comment by Robin
2011-12-27 18:32:43

And seemingly homeless, as well - :(

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Comment by Robin
2011-12-27 18:43:34

Means many homeless survive with the constant love of their pets. For some, it’s the only source.

For many of us, we are but a few degrees away.

OTOH, many scammers use animals as a tool. Seen that done. Saw the pet owners eating at a restaurant I would not patronize due to cost, on my dime. I was very generous fifteen minutes beforehand.

Sweet dog remained in the back of the station wagon on Santa Monica Boulevard.

Learned the “burn me once lesson” but has soured me to giving to others who “seem” needy and real.

Similar experiences?

How do you know who is really in need?

 
 
 
 
Comment by 45north
2011-12-27 08:21:55

We are the middle class that is being squeezed - the folks everyone is talking about: 2 public school teachers, in our late 40’s, with 2 kids.

I looked up de-compensation (wikipedia) - it’s not exactly what I mean. What I mean is behavior that is the opposite of compensation. For example, 20 years ago I attended a lecture in Ottawa on computer technology, the speaker was a young man, overweight but not grossly. Had he worn a nice suit and shaved I would call that compensation. Instead he wore a dirty white shirt, pants that he had worn for the last week. This in contrast to his audience who wore clean shirts and nice sweaters - maybe a few suits. The way he dressed was the opposite of compensation.

Sounds like you are doing the opposite of compensation.

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-12-27 09:02:46

Sounds like you are doing the opposite of compensation.

So, it’s thu$: pay the rent$ dutifully for x12 year$ (x144 monthly repeat cu$tomer) & “be appealing in appearances”!

Yeah, that sounds just like my dutiful Catholic older sister, aka: “the-all-knowing-one!” ;-)

(She seems to instinctively know exactly when to never-stick her-nose in other peoples,…appearances.)

 
 
Comment by polly
2011-12-27 08:29:55

I don’t think you are crazy for deciding that you WANT to buy this year. But I do think it is a little nuts to declare that you WILL buy this year before having the down payment you think you need, looking for another rental, doing the shopping necessary to see what you can afford and where, checking out the schools your kids would have to attend, trying to find a relative or a friend to take the animals so you can qualify for a different rental, considering what it would mean to your daily commute (or what it would mean to lose your job seniority), etc.

Having a garage full of stuff (no matter how organized) limits your choices. It means you can’t move to a place with a smaller or no gargage and it is expensive to move. Consider the dictate to “clean up” as the gift it really is. And if you need more time to do it, see if the fire department will check it out and write you a letter for your landlord saying it isn’t a problem as far as they are concerned.

And, I hate to say this, but with two incomes you should have way more than $20K saved outside of retirement savings, especially if “austerity measures” can double it in less than a year. Have you been dealing with other expenses that limited your ability to save over the past few decades? If so, is there any chance those circumstances could come back? Because if there is a chance, you need to be really, really careful.

And before you buy, you need to have a serious amount of savings over and above what you will use as the downpayment. Seriously, you should have your 6 to 8 months of expenses saved plus at least $20K (probably more) in addition to your downpayment. And I’d be worried about state pensions too, so in your late 40’s you need at least some savings dedicated to retirement and substantial college savings for the kids too. At your age, you should be looking at a 20 year mortgage at most.

Comment by Real Estate Refugee
2011-12-27 10:09:50

+1 I was wondering about the $20,000 in savings too. Is that over and above the 6-8 months emergency fund?

I know someone who scraped together money for a down payment in Long Beach, CA. Once he bought, the city inspected and found things that needed fixing immediately (he lives in an historic district). Talk about austerity - everything outside of necessities goes to the house.

Back in 1990, I started on an savings plan and by early 1992 I had $20,000 (working two jobs). A realtor friend was convinced that I should buy. I looked at a few properties and realized that after paying the down payment and escrow expenses, that I’d have nothing left in savings. Decided to wait.

In 1993 when I had $50,000 in savings (worked two jobs and dollar cost averaged into the stock market), finally bought keeping $25,000 in savings for emergencies and rented out the second bedroom.

A good financial cushion = a good night’s sleep.

Comment by polly
2011-12-27 10:21:52

Thanks for this. I was wondering if I was being a bit of a prig with the savings comment. I had close to $50K of savings when I moved to the DC area and that was after almost 2 years of being out of work and having paid for quite a bit of private college tuition in the meantime (though that was dual use money - staying a student qualified me for much cheaper health insurance). I am something of a compulsive saver. Watching the money go away while I was out of work was terrifying.

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 12:53:05

“I am something of a compulsive saver.”

You go girl!

P.S. I am about to transform some of my compulsive savings into an expensive violin. Keep y’all posted as this goes forward…

 
 
Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 11:55:07

Real Estate Refugee: do you have kids?

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Comment by Real Estate Refugee
2011-12-27 16:16:40

No, but you’re missing the point. And, I’m looking at what you said with a huge dose of critical thinking - if you can go on an austerity program and save another $20,000 in the next few months, then perhaps it would have been possible to save an extra $2,000 - $3,000 a year for a house fund?

Unfortunately, living where you want to live involves sacrifices. I’m sorry about that, but perhaps one of you could give up teaching and make more money? Or take on a second job for a year or two?

It sounds to me like you want this lovely life in a lovely place, but aren’t willing to come to terms with the cost.

 
 
 
Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 11:36:38

Childcare expenses ate up a lot of our savings. Now both of our kids are school-aged, in public school.

Yes, we could have saved more. We have college accounts for the kids and separate IRAs in addition to our teacher’s pensions.

Cost of living here is high. Rent and food especially. I know, I know, we could move somewhere cheaper. But we don’t want to. I’m not belly-aching about the high cost of city living - I choose to live here. I am belly-aching about the fact that the bubble hasn’t burst here yet, which DUH - isn’t that what we’ve all been going on about for the past years on this blog???!!

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-12-27 12:07:14

“I am belly-aching about the fact that the bubble hasn’t burst here yet, which DUH - isn’t that what we’ve all been going on about for the past years on this blog???!!”

Case-shiller data shows SanFran being off about 40% from the peak.

And the latest C-S release shows SanFran trending down again pretty strongly.

So I don’t think it has bottomed there, but I would certainly say it has “burst”.

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Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-12-27 13:17:57

Every gay person I know wants to live in San Francisco. So they can feel “at home”. Nothing wrong with that.

Except…..

A majority of gay couples are DINKs. And if 10% of the population is gay, that means you are competing against about 31 million other Americans. And this doesn’t include any green card or H1B holders.

That’s what is nice about being used to living out in the boonies/Flyover all your life. Not many people can handle the isolation.

As far as the kids getting beat up……..Call it character building.

Especially if the reason they get beat up is because they tell the locals that they, and their city/town sucks, compared to San Francisco.

 
Comment by Itsabouttime
2011-12-27 13:37:30

The funny thing is, anyone who actually knows anything about the bay area knows that there are many cities and neighborhoods around the bay that welcome gays and lesbians. Clearly sfrenter is not one of those people who knows anything about the bay area. Here’s some stats:

City, Gay index (national norm=100)
Berkeley 311
Oakland 312
Sausalito 309
San Francisco 479

So, you might say, wow, SF is 170 points above BOS. But all four of these places are off the charts in terms of welcoming to gays and lesbians; Berkeley is over 200 percent above the national norm. Basically, Poser has it right — sfrenter is delusional. First sfrenter claims everything affordable outside SF is a ghetto. Then everything outside SF is a suburb. Then, everything outside SF is unwelcoming to gays and lesbians. Each time sfrenter changes their story, they ignore having made the previous claim or deny having made it. This is delusional behavior, a pattern that can be observed in heterosexuals, homosexuals, and asexuals. So, when sfrenter becomes sfunderwaterhomebuyer they will fit right in with their delusional peers.

IAT

Here’s the details about the Gay index, from the website ePodunk:

The gay index is a comparative score, based on the percentage of people reporting in the 2000 U.S. Census that they lived in a same-sex partnership.

A score of 100 is the national norm. A number above 100 indicates that the local proportion of same-sex unmarried households is higher than the national average. For example, 140 would mean that the proportion was 40 percent higher than the national norm. A score of 60 would be 40 percent lower.

This statistic is not an absolute measure of gay households. Not everyone who lives in such a relationship is gay; not everyone who is gay lives in such a relationship; and some who do may feel uncomfortable saying so on a census return. However, responses to the question, asked of all U.S. households, provide a good indicator of gay relationships in a community.

ePodunk publishes three measures: a combined gay male/lesbian score called the gay index, a score for gay males and a score for lesbians. The indexes are provided for the 1,360 U.S. communities in which 50 or more couples reported living in such relationships.

Statistics were analyzed by Gary Gates, a demographer at the Urban Institute and co-author of The Gay and Lesbian Atlas.

 
Comment by Montana
2011-12-27 14:34:02

I’m not gay and I wanted to live there too, but I was priced out decades ago. There’s just no way. But it is a special place IMO. It’s interesting to read the travails of someone who has dedicated herself to staying there.

 
Comment by Itsabouttime
2011-12-27 15:24:22

The question is where is “there?” What many do not know is it is called the “San Francisco bay area” because of San Francisco bay/b>, not because of San Francisco city. The bay is ringed with multiple counties and dozens of cities/communities, and the entire region is known for its relatively high level of acceptance of non-standard lifestyles (one could say to a fault — hence the naked guy).

sfrenter says its a choice between SF, ghetto, or suburb (though the eventually admit SF has its share of ghettos). The choice is basically pure delusion. When faced with facts (e.g., comparison of coffeehouses in SF and Berkeley, statistics on graduate degrees and earnings, evidence on the degree to which gays are welcomed around the bay), sfrenter responds by telling the person bearing the facts to shut up.

Those who’ve been on HBB can recognize in this refusal to face facts the same kind of illness that fed the pre-2006 frenzy. sfrenter wants us to validate their decisions, just like a few years ago realtwhores wanted us to validate the ridiculous prices. This blog isn’t about validating decisions and delusions, its about analyzing decisions and options and dispelling delusions.

To say the only place a gay/lesbian can be comfortable in the bay area is SF, and anywhere else their kids will be beaten up, is just completely and utterly delusional.

IAT

 
Comment by Itsabouttime
2011-12-27 15:31:17

bold off

IAT

 
Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 19:33:15

Itsabouttime

The funny thing is, anyone who actually knows anything about the bay area knows that there are many cities and neighborhoods around the bay that welcome gays and lesbians. Clearly sfrenter is not one of those people who knows anything about the bay area.

It’s about time: don’t judge until you’ve walked in someone else’s shoes. I’ve lived here for 20 years. My spouse lived in the East Bay for 8 years.

How did so many on HBB -which I believe was begun by Ben to discuss the housing bubble (HIGH home prices) - come to believe that anyone who can’t afford the high prices should move somewhere else? And they are delusional if they don’t?

The housing bubble that created artificially high home prices and rents is, to me, an obviously bad thing.

 
Comment by Itsabouttime
2011-12-27 22:16:22

sfrenter,

All that time you’ve lived in the bay area, yet you are still clueless about the amenities any bay area locale offers outside SF.

Chill, dude or dudette; trying mightily to convince me and others that the premium you’ll be paying for your delusion is actually necessary for what you want won’t make it any more so, nor any smaller than it is going to be. To hear you tell it, no one ever drove over from the east bay to Ocean Beach, the Marin headlands or, God forbid, down to Monterey, and the only place in the bay area with hills to run and dramatic vistas to enjoy is SF.

The little man has decided that your story has become tiresome, and he has left the cinema.

IAT

 
 
Comment by Lionel
2011-12-27 15:05:39

How about door number three? My wife and I tired of struggling in LA and moved up to Seattle. Much, much more affordable and a lovely city of you don’t mind gray. (I don’t.)

By the way, I don’t agree with your comment upstream about teachers being compensated as much as doctors. I’ve trained as a child psychologist, which means roughly six years of school, written exams, oral exams, dissertation, 3,000 hours pre-doc hours, heading into another 1500 post-doc hours, licensing exams, etc. I could argue that I should be paid as much as a psychiatrist (who earns roughly double my salary), but frankly this is the path I chose, and I can’t begrudge someone who endured med school, boards, internship, residency and I’d wager 5 years or so of fellowship as a child psych. I’d rather do my job, spending 5-6 hours with a client rather than writing scrips. Yes, I’d love to be paid 200K/year, but, well I’m not a psychiatrist.

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Comment by polly
2011-12-27 17:49:45

Well, at least a gay couple can’t have another kid by accident, so your child care days are over. Did you have to pay a lot to get the kids in the first place? That can be quite a chunk of change. My uncle and his husband adopted out of the Vermont foster care system. That cost them in time and heartache, but not much in money. It isn’t for everyone.

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 12:42:15

“…doing the shopping necessary to see what you can afford and where, checking out the schools your kids would have to attend, trying to find a relative or a friend to take the animals so you can qualify for a different rental, considering what it would mean to your daily commute (or what it would mean to lose your job seniority), etc.”

Knowledge definitely is power when working through the rent-vrs-own decision in a high-priced market.

 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2011-12-27 10:07:56

You’re angry about the rent increase. Being at the landlord’s whim. I can empathize. I got in cheap here, but in two years they’ve jacked the rent up to where it was near the top after several years at the previous place.

But take a deep breath and step back. What will improve your financial situation the most? What will improve your family’s quality of life the most?

Buying a house in a bad school district is not going to help your family’s quality of life.

Another option is a rental with a more reasonable rate. On the other hand, maybe buying is the right decision for you.

I guess my point is to step back, let the rent increase sting wear off, and make a logical, thoughtful decision based on what’s important to you.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 12:44:20

“Being at the landlord’s whim. I can empathize.”

But this is a misconception. The renter can make an equally ‘whimsical’ demand for lower rent any time the lease is renewed. The reason landlords can get away with this is that they generally have a stronger negotiating position, as everyone knows that relocating is very expensive and unpleasant, compared to putting out a few ads to find a new tenant.

 
 
Comment by Va Beyatch in Norfolk VA
2011-12-27 10:32:21

Once you leave and her house is put on the market, will she be able to get your rent + $300?

Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 11:46:01

“Once you leave and her house is put on the market, will she be able to get your rent + $300?”

Yes, she will - although she won’t find better tenants. We take care of everything. Never call her, fix everything. Never pay rent late.

I guess it’s more of the feeling that we’ve had a good run, payed a pile of money to live in a place we love for 12 years, and over the years the neighborhood really came up and now the place can be rented for more.

Again, it’s not just the rent increase (which we can afford) or the garage thing — it’s just feeling like I am sick of having a cranky landlady who is scummy to boot. There’s a list of things going back a decade that really stick in my craw.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-12-27 14:17:10

“Never call her, fix everything.”

This is a tactical error. I always email my LL and ask for permission to fix the things that are broken. He always agrees. But that way he at least is away that I am saving him time, money, and trouble by doing what I do, rather than him having to pay someone to come and fix it, or do it himself.

The way you are doing it, the LL cannot distinguish between you being great tenants who fix things, and nothing being broken to begin with. She probably assumes the latter.

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Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 16:30:29

“The way you are doing it, the LL cannot distinguish between you being great tenants who fix things, and nothing being broken to begin with. She probably assumes the latter.”

Actually, no. We have an agreement that is it’s a small fix I will do it without her written consent. I then send her the bill for the parts PLUS an estimate of what the labor would have been. (I used to be a mechanic, first at a shop, and then had my own shop for a few years).

She knows what she is getting.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-12-27 18:52:30

“She knows what she is getting.”

Ah, sorry—my mistake. You know what happens when you assume… :-)

 
 
Comment by seen it all
2011-12-27 16:46:10

There’s a list of things going back a decade that really stick in my craw.

do tell !

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Comment by Lenderoflastresort
2011-12-27 17:44:02

A basic schoolteacher should know how to spell “paid”.

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Comment by Anon in dc
2011-12-27 18:37:40

Noing haw to spell and making tipos is to different things.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2011-12-27 10:48:23

You are not crazy.

I fear that the rent increase your landlady is trying to push upon you will be more the rule than the exception with the lack of development in California generally.

Living in SF proper is tough though…I truly wish you the best when looking for a place. It’s not easy.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 11:58:26

“The landlady gave me this Christmas gift: $300. month rent increase (no rent control on our SFH) and told me I had to clean up our garage.”

You are not crazy; just stuck in the same pot of stew as any other middle class household trying to afford housing their family in an expensive West Coast city (my household included).

It may help to evaluate the relative strengths of your and your landlady’s bargaining positions before acting.

So far as I am aware, your landlady can demand you pay her rent at however high a level she chooses; conversely, you can insist on paying her rent at however low a level you choose.

If you cannot agree on a mutually acceptable rent, then you have to move out and she has to find a new tenant. What would it cost you to move, in terms of finding a new place, packing up and moving your stuff, getting used to a new living situation, etc? Your best alternative to continuing your current rental situation is moving out; her best alternative to continuing to lease to you is finding a new tenant. Which of you would pay a higher price if you couldn’t come to agreement? This is what determines the relative strengths of your bargaining positions.

Could you easily find a comparable place that rents for below what the landlady is trying to charge you? If so, there is a good chance that she would not be able to find a new tenant who would be willing and able to pay the rent she is demanding. If this is the case, then you may be able to convince her to charge less, both on grounds of fairness, and the risk that she will have no luck finding a credit-worthy tenant who would pay the rent you would reliably pay. It couldn’t hurt your position to fire a warning shot across the landlady’s bow, by hinting that you might leave after the current lease is up unless she reduces the rent increase.

Cleaning your garage might seem like an onerous condition, but you can strengthen your negotiating position by eating humble pie and doing it (apparently your landlady prefers renting to tenants who keep a clean garage!). Look on the bright side: At least she didn’t require you to feed the squirrels. ;-)

Good luck!

Comment by b-hamster
2011-12-27 15:31:13

Well cleaning out the garage is going to required if you move anyway. Why not start organizing or cleaning it out now? At least it will show the LL that you’re trying to meet in the middle. When I left Cincy for the West Coast it was painful to get rid of things I’d acquired over the decades. But it quickly became quite freeing. My mantra since then has always been “never acquire more than you can fit in a 15′ Budget renatl truck.”

Too, I moved close to downtown (although a city of only 70,000) and paid a hefty premium for my 1,100sf house. But I also sold my car, can bike to work in under five minutes and value the time and peace of mind by not commuting.

I’ve not found any cities in the Bay Area to my liking as much as SF, so I see your point abount wanting to be in the midst of what the city offers. Best of luck to you.

 
 
Comment by rms
2011-12-27 13:16:06

“OK so this is it. 2012 is the year I stop being a renter.”

Henry Kissinger once said that deadlines were dangerous.

 
Comment by Anon in dc
2011-12-27 18:04:55

What are you currently paying? And how long since your last increase and how much was that?

 
 
Comment by Muggy
2011-12-27 06:06:21

“Sears Holdings Corp. said it expects to close roughly 100 stores in a bid to revitalize its business and reduce expenses, while also reporting continued sales struggles in the latest quarter.”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203479104577124151924531994.html

Comment by GEG
2011-12-27 07:13:31

Sears started dying a slow death the day KMart bought it. Might as well put it out of its misery already.

Comment by palmetto
2011-12-27 07:28:58

“Might as well put it out of its misery already.”

Amen to that. RIP, Kenmore brand.

Comment by Va Beyatch in Norfolk VA
2011-12-27 10:35:47

Sears tools are fine.

I see people complaining about Kenmore appliances but I think all of the appliance companies turned to Chinese junk after 2005? I was thinking when I finally get a place I’ll go after commercial restaurant hardware slightly used/at auction.

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Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-12-27 12:52:55

Commercial ovens and such aren’t allowed under most residential building codes.

 
Comment by va beyatch in norfolk va
2011-12-27 15:03:21

Doh. I already have a commercial fridge but it’s a glass door merchandiser. It’s pretty neat.

 
 
 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-12-27 07:43:21

Good riddance.

Sears pizzed me off back in the early 80s. Haven’t set foot in any of their stores since, unless I had absolutely no other alternative (tools).

I’ll pay the Snap-On guy 50% more, just so I have an alternative to Sears. He, unlike Sears, thinks my business is worth retaining.

Comment by oxide
2011-12-27 07:50:13

Is Craftsman really that bad? I have a toolbox full of Craftsman.

Sears/Kmart are practically redundant in the market. It won’t be a great tragedy to lose Jaclyn’s Smith’s clothing line. But it’s only a matter of time before the redundant businesses are liquidated and Sears’ only strengths, Craftsman and Kenmore, are sold to the highest bidder and shipped to China entirely. What a depressing thought.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2011-12-27 08:15:35

Is Craftsman really that bad? I have a toolbox full of Craftsman.

Craftsman (and most anything else) will generally work for lighter work. My experience is that Craftsman was world class through the 1960s and maybe 1970s…I’ve used a few old tools that were good. But at some point by the 80s they decided to cash in on their reputation. They maintained the lifetime no-questions-asked warranty to keep up appearances, but simply calculated the replacement tools for the few people who used the hard as the cost of doing business. Once you break a few you move on to something else anyway, so there’s not THAT many people asking for replacements over and over again.

To answer the original question, but a modern Craftsman socket on a long breaker bar and try to break something loose that’s really stuck, and the socket will break. Most people that do that kind of work don’t own Craftsman any more, though.

 
Comment by DF
2011-12-27 10:48:06

Also, watch out for the Craftsman Evolv sub-brand (ie, the neon green tools). I think they’re Harbor Freight quality in Craftsman packaging. Regardless, if I buy Craftsman, I try to stick with the US-made stuff, since that seems to be the only really good Craftsman stuff anymore.

 
Comment by sfrenter
2011-12-27 11:58:05

“Is Craftsman really that bad? I have a toolbox full of Craftsman”

I was an auto mechanic before I was a teacher: Craftsman sucks pretty hard. Still have a toolbox full of Snap On and Mac tools. They are beautiful.

But if you are not using your tools professionally, you might not care or even notice the difference.

 
Comment by oxide
2011-12-27 12:59:00

Yeah, I saw their stupid Evolvs in the store. Then I saw that they didn’t have the guarantee and they were made in China. I railed a little bit at the salesman, then proceeded to buy $200 of Made In USA to fill my toolbox. Yes, I will pay extra for that.

 
Comment by ahansen
2011-12-27 13:17:18

Yeah, Crapsman toy-tools are really that bad. So bad they’re dangerous if you actually need to use them.

I like to collect well-made (and well-used) old tools; (half the fun is figuring out what they are used for,) so I frequent garage sales, estate sales, and swap meets to find vintage American and German-made pieces and sets– usually at a tiny fraction of the original cost. Then I take them home and use them for my ranch chores and maintenance.

There is something almost poetic in them; the smooth old wooden handles, the worn metal edges, the simple precision; these were once someone’s livelihood, a part of their daily life, their dreams and travails embodied right here in these old implements. It’s almost as though they’re teaching me how to use them….

Anyway, they’re almost all better than anything you can buy new today.

 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-12-27 13:29:40

Hmmmmmm……..ahansen scouts out old tools at garage sales.

Maybe I should pay you some kind of retainer. Or if you find aerospace stuff, sell it to me and make a few bucks. :)

Google: “The Yard” Wichita Kansas. They have a pdf catalog. Useful for identifying oddball aviation related tools.

 
Comment by va beyatch in norfolk va
2011-12-27 15:08:29

My craftsman tools have stood up fairly well? I don’t do that much auto work though, mostly smaller stuff. I do need to change the strut bushing things in my Accord though.

People I know that have the more expensive Snap-On tools generally had the luxury of stealing them from employers and such.

 
Comment by ahansen
2011-12-27 15:22:36

The best place for cutting edge aerospace parts was the scientific warehouse down the street from Caltech. I picked up the most amazing satellite components, polished lenses, precision calipers over the years, all of which probably cost 1960’s-era taxpayers tens or hundreds of thousands when they were being developed at JPL.

And in the back were kept the motors and engines and Big Scary Machines, hot boxes and the like. It was like a vast second-hand Edmund Scientific.

Can’t remember the name of the owner, but he and his father had been there since the 1920’s and knew every inch of the place backwards and inside out. Most fondly, however, I remember the store cat. A huge, matted, malevolent creature, it was fond of lurking in and amongst the shelving and cardboard boxes, and made great sport of springing, claws-first, out at the odd and unwary, then tearing off into the dusty stacks to plot its next foray.

Wish I could help you out, GS, but about the only plane parts we get up here are the smoking ruins that didn’t quite make it back to China Lake– though as Hwy can tell you, there are plenty of old tools living up here in the backwoods…. :-)

 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-12-27 16:29:54

Sounds like those guys are related to the guys that own “The Yard”

They have tons of stuff they bought from the Wichita manufacturers, mainly Boeing, and a lot of tooling and Ground Support Equipment (GSE). Place has been in business since the 1940s. Rumor has it he has a couple of allison V-1750s (still crated) buried somewhere.

Lately their business has evolved into buying surplus air tools from the Wichita OEMs, rebuilding them, then sell them. Got my rivet gun from there (and yes, there is a difference between a “rivet gun” and “air hammer”)

Boeing-Wichita (now Spirit Aerosystems) has a Surplus store opened on Wednesdays. They usually have/had some interesting stuff…

-50 man life rafts? Check
-Huck and Hi-Lok fasteners (big $$), for 4 bucks a pound? Check

-Giant Chunks of Titanium and 2024 aluminum, sheet 2024 and stainless steel for that home machine shop? Check

-Giant plywood crates used to transport engine cowlings? Check (They had a bunch during the KC-135R re-engine program. $25/each. Cut a hole for a door, put a roof on it, some siding, and you have an outdoor shed for the tools/lawnmower)

 
 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-12-27 07:52:43

I’ll miss my local KMart if it goes- which it probably will. I like it because it’s nearby, and there is_never_ a crowd there.

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Comment by Awaiting
2011-12-27 09:35:29

alpha
The K-Mart we frequent is nicer than the Wal-Mart. The washer and dryer set we have our eyes on at K-Mart is a better deal than Sears. We’re going to replace our 17 year old laundry pair (Kenmore) with another cheapo Kenmore set. To hell with expensive laundry equipment. Our egos aren’t that fragile. 1-2 loads every 3 weeks.

 
 
Comment by Posers
2011-12-27 08:01:19

May Best Buy suffer the same fate. I’ll never forget what that outfit did to me.

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Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 08:43:18

BB is the last man standing in the home electronics and appliances big box biz. That said, Walmart is probably already eating their lunch in the flat panel TV market.You can get most of what BB sells at Walmart, so maybe being the last man standing won’t save Best Buy.

We did buy a new Camera at BB last summer. I was surprised to learn that most of their sales clerks had Bachelor’s degrees at that store.

They went to college to get a job selling digital cameras at Best Buy?

 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2011-12-27 08:57:33

‘May Best Buy suffer the same fate. I’ll never forget what that outfit did to me.’

You’re not this guy, are you? :

http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=19970228&slug=2526274

I think BB needs some major PR surgery. I hate going to their stores if for nothing else that it feels slimy to gawk over all the crap they have in there that will be obsolete in a few years and/or broken and oversold with some $$ extended warranty.

 
Comment by polly
2011-12-27 10:31:08

I can’t buy anything at Best Buy. There is something about those stores that just turns off my ability to spend. I know the warehouse thing it is supposed to make you feel like you are getting a good deal because the store didn’t waste money on decorating, but I just can’t do it. Maybe if I did all my pre-shopping on the internet, found the best deal there and then just went to pick it up. Maybe. I think it has more to do with the sound than anything else, but it just doesn’t work for me.

I have not had the same issue at other places with high ceilings or that look like (or pretend to look like) warehouses. Only Best Buy.

 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2011-12-27 10:46:10

BB doesn’t need PR surgery, they need to lower their prices and improve their customer service.

But that ain’t gonna happen. So my advice? Don’t go long on BB.

 
Comment by Va Beyatch in Norfolk VA
2011-12-27 10:50:44

Agree. I hate Best Buy for some unknown reason. We used to have Circuit City stores, and I didn’t hate them so much.

Maybe it’s the blue and yellow, I don’t know.

I’m an oddball, most of my A/V stuff is commercial grade stuff and purchased used.

 
Comment by Awaiting
2011-12-27 11:52:11

Best Buys owns Pacific Sales, a growing appliance store chain for middle to upper level appliances.

 
Comment by Awaiting
2011-12-27 11:57:47

I don’t like the feel of Best Buy either, and the prices don’t make me sing.

We’re pre-shopping appliances, and IIRC the annual reviews from Consumer Reports are in Jan. I’ll weed out the options first.

 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2011-12-27 12:39:07

‘BB doesn’t need PR surgery, they need to lower their prices and improve their customer service.

But that ain’t gonna happen. So my advice? Don’t go long on BB.’

Not planning to set foot in one anytime soon. I can buy electronics online or do without I guess. Maybe even put off buying them for a few years.

 
Comment by josemanolo
2011-12-27 13:33:25

i have avoided bb for many many years because of their return policies, sales staff, prices and many many other reason. but this shopping season i had no choice but to get a few items from. i was pleasantly surprised, to say the least. i had to deal with getting the items and price matching, return and rebuy to get the bundle options, more price adjustment, and best of all their prices as much better than i can find online anywhere. i think they finally realized that they have to improved the experience of buying from them or they get the fate of circuit city.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 14:50:49

I think it has more to do with the sound than anything else, but it just doesn’t work for me.

I hear you (pun intended). Their stores are noisy places and not somewhere I like to go.

 
Comment by va beyatch in norfolk va
2011-12-27 15:10:31

BB used to never have speaker audition rooms, which was an indicator to me that customers didn’t really care about what they were buying.

 
Comment by Robin
2011-12-27 19:18:07

Hate Best Buy; love Pacific Sales. Complete opposites within the same umbrella.

 
 
 
Comment by rms
2011-12-27 09:21:53

“Sears started dying a slow death the day KMart bought it.”

They’re dead because their customers are dead. RIP middle-class.

Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 14:54:49

I think that many fail to understand how chains like Sears and Wards catered to the lunch pail class, which no longer exists.

In some ways, Amazon is the new Sears, their online catalog being the digital replacement for the old phone book (huh? whats that?) sized catalog. A lot of people shopped at Sears without ever setting foot in a store.

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Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 08:05:59

A cautious consumer mood has only compounded headaches for the retailer lately

How many Americans can still afford to shop at a department store, even a crummy one like Sears? KMart should reinvest in Dollar Stores.

I seem to recall that Sears once catered to America’s formerly growing middle class, especially in flyover country with the once ubiquitous Sears Catalog. It (along with Monkey Wards) catered to the lunch pail portion of the middle class, which is now all but extinct.

Comment by GEG
2011-12-27 08:31:43

“How many Americans can still afford to shop at a department store,”

Answer: A lot more than you think.

“Nov 09, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) — Macy’s, Inc. today reported strong third quarter earnings….. earnings were 32 cents per diluted share for the third quarter of 2011, ended Oct. 29, 2011. Sales in the third quarter totaled $5.853 billion, up 4.1 percent from total sales of $5.623 billion in the third quarter of 2010. On a same-store basis, Macy’s, Inc.’s third quarter sales were up 4.0 percent.”

Nov 10, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) - Kohl’s Corporation reported third quarter diluted earnings per share increased 40 percent to $0.80. Net income for the quarter increased 20 percent to $211 million, compared to $176 million ($0.57 per diluted share) a year ago. Net income was $711 million, compared with $626 million ($2.03 per diluted share) for the first nine months of fiscal 2010. Net sales were $12.8 billion, an increase of 3.5 percent. Year-to-date comparable store sales increased 1.7 percent.”

Nov 11, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) — Dillard’s, Inc. announced operating results for the 13 weeks ended October 29, 2011. Net sales for the 13 weeks ended October 29, 2011 were $1.383 billion compared to net sales for the 13 weeks ended October 30, 2010 of $1.344 billion. Dillard’s reported pretax income (income before income taxes and income on and equity in losses of joint ventures) of $39.5 million for the 13 weeks ended October 29, 2011 compared to $21.5 million for the 13 weeks ended October 30, 2010

Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 09:11:19

My comment was rhetorical. Obviously the remnant of the middle class (the cubicle farm crowd) still shops at department stores.

I’m also sure that some retail chains (like Macy’s and Kohl’s) are doing OK, while others like Sears are struggling and others like once high flying Mervyn’s have gone out of business altogether.

That said, from what I have read the hottest sector in retail these days are the Dollar Stores. It’s where the Lucky Duckies shop, I suppose.

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Comment by GEG
2011-12-27 09:46:59

I realize it was rhetorical. But my point is department stores are doing just fine. Your claim is that

Your argument re: Sears said:is Sears is going under because the middle class is dying and it is the middle class who shops are departments stores.

I pointed out departments stores in general are doing just fine. Sears is drowning due to Sears, not due to a lack of middle class with money to spend.

Dollars Stores…doing pretty well, a little better than departments stores. Dollar tree’s same store sales are up 5.5% YOY. Macy’s, Dillards, Kohl’s etc were up on average around 2.5%. So yes, dollars stores are outperforming, but not by as much as some people think.

 
Comment by Robin
2011-12-27 17:41:22

One of the best-performing dollar stores is Beverly Hills adjacent.

 
 
 
Comment by Elanor
2011-12-27 09:19:11

The department stores around here seem to be following the Kohl’s route of everything being perpetually marked down / on sale.

Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 09:31:34

Yup, Kohl’s basically out Mervyn’d Mervyn’s, to the point where once high flying Mervyn’s went out of business.

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Comment by whyoung
2011-12-27 09:35:56

At least for Kohl’s apparel, their pricing is planned so that even after the constant % discounts they are making their margins, since they have trained the consumer to buy when “on sale”.

MSRP is an illusory “anchoring” point.

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Comment by Awaiting
2011-12-27 12:05:33

whyoung
“MSRP is an illusory “anchoring” point”
Well stated. and your training the consumer point, too.

When I wanted a jade elephant/14K gold necklace, I got on the RedLine (Los Angeles Subway-$1.50 each way) and went to China Town downtown. The jewelry story gave us a great deal.
Hint: Cheap Rent & just trying to make a living. Not trying to put junior through Harvard on 15 customers.
And we supported a family owned business and had a fun day.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 12:58:06

That said, I felt pretty happy with my last-minute Kohl’s shopping experience in Centerville, UT, near where my wife’s family members all live. The store was pleasantly empty on Xmas eve, and I supposedly saved some crazy amount on my purchases — maybe 60%. Yesterday I took back some gifts and reoptimized — got all the goodies this nonmaterialist could reasonably handle on even exchange. The shopping experience was pleasant and quick, and they had great product selection and displays.

I think I am a Kohl’s shopper now…

 
Comment by whyoung
2011-12-27 14:30:30

I too like Kohl’s, it’s just good to have a perspective on how deep the discounts really are.

 
Comment by Robin
2011-12-27 22:35:48

When you get $10 off $25 for a delusionally-priced 2-pack of replacement heads for your Sonicare, it can make sense.

Best action this season is $10 off $25 at JC Penney, where
they do actual, and often deep, discounts! Especially on apparel.

 
 
 
 
Comment by polly
2011-12-27 09:03:37

You don’t “revitalize” a business by closing stores. You do reduce expenses. I just ran a search on the Sears website and they have 10 locations within 10 miles of me. Now some are automotive, but three of them are regular stores, one is an outlet and two are called “hometown stores” whatever that is. And that is only the ones within 10 miles. I know there is another one in Gaithersburg which isn’t all that much further.

I used to go to Sears when I lived across the street from one when I needed a humidifier or something like that. Socks too. Now I would probably go to Target or Bed, Bath & Beyond for stuff like that, but only because of the locations. Easier to go to a place that I can combine with a trip to a grocery store or a hair cut. If they can’t get the people who hang out in malls to go to their stores for the extras that aren’t really found in other mall stores, they are doing something wrong, but maybe they just have too many stores.

Comment by whyoung
2011-12-27 09:37:36

Has anyone ever bought anything at BB&B WITHOUT a coupon?

Comment by polly
2011-12-27 10:43:35

I’m sure they have. I occassionally feel embarrassed at pulling out the coupon for a travel sized baby powder, or something like that (total discount less than $0.15), but I still do it. I’m sure others who are more sensitive sometimes skip it or just forget the coupon entirely. Discount from coupon vs. gas to drive back to a store you only visit occassionally is a relevant analysis.

I like that store. In my last apartment (which was right across the street from one), my dad once clogged my toilet (don’t ask). I ran over to buy a toilet plunger and even with the coupon, I hadn’t brought enough money to cover the cost for the cheapest one they had including tax. The manager hearing me ask an assistant if there wasn’t a cheaper one somewhere in the store, came up and wrote out a discount so I could get the one they had on the floor for the cash I had on me. Talk about building customer loyalty.

24 hour maintenance on site in the apartment building would have been better. Not dealing with a stupid low flush toilet that couldn’t handle much would have been better still. My father gifting the toilet in the hotel room, not mine, would have been the best.

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Comment by Va Beyatch in Norfolk VA
2011-12-27 10:56:25

I bought my parents a $80 gift and didn’t have the coupon a few days ago. Doh. No time to go home to get it. Everyone else had one. I felt horrible. I was going to use one to get a toaster oven, but the poor selection led me to order a much much much nicer one from TigerDirect for less than I would have paid at BB&B after coupon.

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Comment by whyoung
2011-12-27 11:35:59

If you go back in with your receipt and coupon they will give you a price adjustment. (not sure the time limit.)

 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2011-12-27 12:16:37

Whoa, Tiger Direct sells toaster ovens?!! What next, clothing and accessories?

I always thought Tiger Direct was only mail-order, like Amazon. But on our last trip to the Atlanta airport I noticed billboards for a Tiger Direct retail outlet, just off I-85 about 30 miles northeast of Atlanta.

 
Comment by va beyatch in norfolk va
2011-12-27 15:14:20

No, I bought online. I read all the reviews and everyone complained about most of the models. BB&B had one model that customers loved listed on their website, but nothing in store or in stock to ship online. Tigerdirect had a model that was highly rated and cheap, so I mail ordered it.

 
 
 
 
Comment by measton
2011-12-27 09:18:30

I’ve noticed q few local businesses going bk after xmas this year. Two local malls have 3 big box vacancies. The economy and the internet will crush a lot of stores.

Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-12-27 13:02:03

I bought almost everything online this year. When I see news stories about the traffic jams around the stores, and the crowds therein, I shake my head in puzzlement. There’s more variety and better prices online, and you can shop from your couch. I think some people like the seasonal stress-out. (I hate to sound sexist, but especially les femmes).

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 13:05:18

I guess I owe thanks to folks like you for making my bricks-and-mortar shopping experience so pleasantly crowd-free this year…

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Comment by josemanolo
2011-12-27 13:56:00

more like they want to touch, smell, taste the goods before buying. one thing i noticed lately is that online prices are not that great compared to local store prices, unless they have better rebates. most of the time they both have rebates at the same time.

 
Comment by whyoung
2011-12-27 16:52:53

“online prices are not that great”

Depends on how you calculate the entire cost of the transaction in time as well as money.

This year I sent a number of items from Amazon as gifts…
-Paid same or less than I would have at any Brick & Mortar store.
-Did not spring for gift wrapping (grinchy but cheap this year, and relatives OK with smiley brown boxes under the tree.)
-Did not have to wrap/box/schlep to post office (yay free shipping)
-Did not have to pay sales tax (on items sent to another state)
-Did not have to spend on transportation (gas or subway fare)
-Did not have to spend my valuable time out with the hordes of crazed consumers. (Even if you value your time at minimum wage, a several hour trip to the mall adds up…)

I agree this really mostly works for “known” commodities, such as books, where color/touch/feel characteristics are not of as much concern as with items like clothes.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-12-27 06:33:53

Realtors Are Liars®

Comment by goon squad
2011-12-27 09:41:46

From the Washington Post: GOP candidates offer few new ideas on reviving housing market

“Three years into the president’s term, the nation’s housing market remains a mess. Although some data shows some signs of improvement in recent months, one in four homes with mortgages is underwater and homeowners are struggling to cope with the loss of $7 trillion in home equity. Meanwhile, the National Association of Home Builders calls 2011 the worst in its 69-year history when it comes to construction of new homes.

Even so, with Iowa voters set to caucus on Jan. 3, the GOP candidates are not rushing forward with alternatives, making it very likely there will be no help on the way if a Republican recaptures the White House next fall. In fact, some of the ideas proposed by Republican presidential candidates could further harm the housing industry, according to industry leaders.

Neither Obama nor the GOP candidates are talking about the kinds of expensive and, no doubt, politically risky moves some economists say are necessary to repair the housing market.”

 
 
Comment by seen it all
2011-12-27 07:16:59

Repeat question:
What’s the gig with our joshua tree extension?

which version of firefox do i have to run?

I upgraded and lost the extension ;(

Comment by Carl Morris
2011-12-27 08:02:29

I never saw an answer to my question…what version did you upgrade to? The latest version of JT should be good through 8.x.

Comment by seen it all
2011-12-27 10:57:33

RAts—
I got an error message that Joshua is not compatible with Mozilla 9.0!

Comment by Carl Morris
2011-12-27 16:25:14

That answers that. Didn’t realize there was a 9.0.

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Comment by jeff saturday
2011-12-27 07:23:59

Survey: Home prices down in most major US cities

By DEREK KRAVITZ The Associated Press

Posted: 9:06 a.m. Tuesday, Dec. 27, 2011

WASHINGTON — U.S. home prices fell in most major cities for the second straight month, further evidence that the housing recovery will be bumpy.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index shows prices dropped in October from September in 19 of the 20 cities tracked. Prices in a majority of cities declined for the second straight month. Prior to that, they had risen for five consecutive months in at least half of the cities tracked.

Atlanta, Detroit and Minneapolis posted the biggest monthly declines. Prices in Atlanta and Las Vegas fell to their lowest points since the housing crisis began. Prices rose in Phoenix after three straight monthly declines.

The Case Shiller index covers half of all U.S. homes. It measures prices compared with those in January 2000 and creates a three-month moving average.

Comment by Posers
2011-12-27 08:20:55

…”evidence that the housing recovery will be bumpy”.

Anyone else sick and tired of such piss-poor, non-anecdotal writing?

Housing has been “bumpy” for 50+ months now. Why not just report the sales numbers/prices and leave it at that? It could all be said in a sole, short paragraph.

Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-12-27 08:36:23

Why buy a house today when you can buy later for 65% less?

 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 08:37:22

You’re assuming that it’s “reporting”, as opposed to what it really is: propaganda. Our corporate owned MSM has evolved into a crony capitalist version of the old Soviet era Pravda.

 
Comment by oxide
2011-12-27 08:50:10

And the few cities where housing didn’t drop are the ones with Jobs. So the article is worthless.

Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-12-27 09:06:12

What does the disgraced organization National Association of ReaItors have to say about this?

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Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 09:37:26

And the few cities where housing didn’t drop are the ones with Jobs.

The employment conundrum: live where there are jobs, housing is expensive AND unaffordable. Live where there are no jobs and even though it is much cheaper, housing is still unaffordable.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2011-12-27 10:27:44

I wonder if we might get to the point where the only places with middle class jobs are landlocked or tightly controlled growth? Therefore we will always be able to extract every dollar from the middle class…unless they lose their minds and inhabit the trailer park.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 10:56:49

I sometimes wonder if that is the plan.

 
Comment by josemanolo
2011-12-27 14:00:14

that is not a conundrum. housing is unaffordable. period.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 13:00:47

“Prices in Atlanta and Las Vegas fell to their lowest points since the housing crisis began.”

Would it be possible to allow Eddie to make a special guest appearance for an update on how his Atlanta real estate investments are working out for him?

Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 14:58:53

He’s probably already done his strategic default.

 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2011-12-27 07:24:12

U.S. Stores Ramp Up Bargains as Sales Lag

bloomibergi

“Holiday sales will rise 3.8 percent, compared with a 5.2 percent advance last year, according to the Washington-based National Retail Federation. Sagging home prices and 8.6 percent unemployment continue to weigh on U.S. consumers…

Personal spending climbed 0.1 percent last month, the Commerce Department reported on Dec. 23. That was less than the median 0.3 percent gain projected in a Bloomberg News survey of 79 economists. Wages and salaries fell 0.1 percent from October, according to the Commerce Department.

Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO), based in Matthews, North Carolina, operated on Christmas for the first time, opening about half of its 7,000-plus stores from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m.

Many chains opened early yesterday, too. Target Corp. (TGT) swung open its doors at 7 a.m., an hour before usual, with a $100 discount on a Canon digital camera regularly priced at $299.99 and lower prices on plastic storage containers.

Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at NPD Group in Port Washington, New York, said yesterday in a telephone interview.

“The consumer is not feeling much better about the economy, but they’re getting frugal fatigue,” he said. “They are tired of not spending.”

———–

Let’s review: salaries are down a little bit but spending is up a little bit. Stores are open longer but the profits do not increase proportionately. People are tired of spending but Target chose to put storage bins on sale.* That last item is pretty ironic. This is a society in decline.

———-
*Any decorating magazine will tell you not to hide away your collections in storage bins. You’re supposed to design a room’s decor around a display of pieces so you can enjoy your collection every day.

Comment by goon squad
2011-12-27 07:41:42

Irrational Exuberance at the Mall of America

From the AP: BLOOMINGTON, Minn.—Officials says a moving melee involving scores of juveniles at the Mall of America took police and security officers over an hour to control as shoppers packed the sprawling shopping center the day after Christmas.

Mall spokeswoman Bridget Jewell says about 50 young people were involved in a fight at a food court Monday afternoon and that dozens of them then swarmed through the Minnesota mall as bystanders ran into stores to get out of the way.”

Comment by Montana
2011-12-27 10:28:16

Oh, those young people!

Comment by goon squad
2011-12-27 12:43:15

Remember how the media reported the London riots? How they reported the wave of social-media flash-mob assaults across the US last summer?

“Youths”, “students”, “young people”, and similar phrases all to make it seem like harmless little pranks done just for the lulz :)

Prediction: if 2011 was Occupy, 2012 will be the Long Hot Summer

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Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-12-27 07:44:11

“lower prices on plastic storage containers. ”

You gotta store all the useless crap you just got for Xmas.

“salaries are down a little bit but spending is up a little bit”

I guess with unemployment edging down, salaries could average down but there would be more people earning them, which could explain the slight increase in spending.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2011-12-27 07:57:37

Maintenance spending.

Like it or not, stuff breaks and wears out and has to be replaced.

Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 08:09:18

Or you just do without. 5 billion+ people around the world do it all the time.

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Comment by Posers
2011-12-27 08:23:22

But you don’t.

 
Comment by palmetto
2011-12-27 08:32:47

L.M.A.O.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 08:34:42

I know plenty of people who do without. They don’t go to the doctor, they drive an old car, they don’t take a vacation, they cancel the cable TV, etc.

Don’t let all those fancy smart phones fool you. Most people are broke and are cutting back. The anemic Christmas spending is but a symptom. The lack of spending was especially noticeable in our neck of the woods, despite the fact that the median HH income in our little burg is well above the national average. My son got a part time seasonal job in retail and he mentioned that the store (a national discount apparel chain) was dead most of the time, as were the neighboring shops in the mall.

Not surprising as buying power for Coloradans dropped 10% in the past decade and fell even harder in our little burg, thanks in large part to layoffs at places like HP and Agilent along with the local housing bust which left many builder boyz in a nasty lurch.

 
Comment by GEG
2011-12-27 10:55:13

“anemic Christmas spending”? HUH?

Retail sales were up 4% in Dec. YOY, adjusted for inflation. That’s anything but anemic.

 
Comment by seen it all
2011-12-27 11:04:22

I buy what I need but I realize that I don’t need much.

A couple years ago my TV broke. I took it to our transfer station (dump) and thought about my new flat screen. THen I saw a giant toshiba at the drop off.

Brought it home and has worked great (this happened before I had heard of bed bugs making a comeback.)

 
Comment by polly
2011-12-27 11:46:19

December isn’t over yet, GEG. Where are you getting your stats?

 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 13:51:11

Retail sales were up 4% in Dec. YOY, adjusted for inflation. That’s anything but anemic.

But that’s compared to an anemic last year, which if memory serves me right was revised DOWNWARD once January rolled around.

And to be honest, I’m not sure that I believe the numbers. They simply don’t match the empty stores I’ve been seeing in the real world.

 
Comment by Robin
2011-12-27 17:59:54

Hard to find parking at malls on the Left Coast.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2011-12-27 08:52:32

If you’re replacing something that breaks, then why would you need a storage bin? You’d be using the thing, not storing it.

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Comment by turkey lurkey
2011-12-27 10:54:33

Who said they needed them? :lol:

Storage bins always go on sale after Christmas.

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-12-27 13:11:20

“Storage bins always go on sale after Christmas.”

Its a New Years thing. ‘This is the year I get myself organizized’.

Next they sell us sheets.

 
Comment by polly
2011-12-27 14:18:47

I think storage bins are part of the “organize your financial docs” stuff that also goes on sale after Christmas. January is the start of tax season. Also, some of the storage bins have inserts for Christmas ornaments.

 
Comment by Robin
2011-12-27 18:18:13

In my nabe, Target’s displays, ads and signage are in English. Sear’s equivalents are bilingual.

Connection?

 
 
 
Comment by GEG
2011-12-27 08:00:57

Unemployment went down because fewer people are looking for work, not because more people are working. The participation rate is down to 58.2%. Weekly earnings were down 0.1% in Nov.

So not only are there fewer people working, they’re earning less too.

But why let facts get in the way of a good headline like UNEMPLOYMENT PLUMMETS TO 8.6%

Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 08:11:23

The unemployment numbers have been an outright lie for at least the past two decades.

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Comment by 45north
2011-12-27 07:52:38

Target chose to put storage bins on sale.

America’s last days

Comment by Carl Morris
2011-12-27 08:06:34

If/when somebody finally conquers America and takes all their stuff, they are going to be quite disappointed in their haul.

Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 08:18:16

They will shake their heads in disbelief, muttering to themselves: “Wait a minute … we made this crap!”

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Comment by oxide
2011-12-27 09:41:40

+1

 
 
 
 
Comment by butters
2011-12-27 08:59:52

“They are tired of not spending.”

LOL. I don’t know a single person who is tired of not spending.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 09:43:51

“The consumer is not feeling much better about the economy, but they’re getting frugal fatigue,” he said. “They are tired of not spending.”

Frugal fatigue? Man, I love the baloney they come up with. They make it sound like people have tons of discretionary funds and that it’s only because of sheer willpower (which is breaking down) that they aren’t spending it.

What other nonsense does the Ministry of Truth have for us today? That people with 25K incomes are chomping at the bit to buy a new car, and that they will “any day now” because of “pent up demand”? Oh wait, they’ve been saying that for years now. Maybe they should stick to reporting that the chocolate ration has increased.

Comment by whyoung
2011-12-27 10:33:12

“frugal fatigue”

It’s handy shorthand for merchandisers and marketers who have to figure out how to exploit the frustrations and emotions of consumers.

Helping people rationalize a “treat” can bring in big bucks.

“A rise in nail polish sales indicates that we’re searching for bargain luxuries as the economy craters — and sales of nail polish are way up right now. Women’s underwear sales are down, which historically suggests intense frugality and more rough times ahead.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/18/magazine/adam-davidson-economic-indicators.html

Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 11:02:38

Or maybe nail polish sales are up because more women are skipping (doing without) the manicurist?

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Comment by whyoung
2011-12-27 11:39:33

(doing without) the manicurist?

agreed, but also keeping up appearances - nail polish instead of underwear.

 
Comment by Awaiting
2011-12-27 12:47:20

Nail polish isn’t healthy because it has lots of carcinogens . Back in the Great Depression days, I doubt the lipstick had lead in it. Nowadays, you have to look everything up on Skin Deep.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2011-12-27 13:08:15

Depends on what they mean by “underwear.” Some *ahem* women’s underwear are more expensive per unit than men’s jeans.

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Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-12-27 07:45:34

Update on yesterday’s mishap.

One of the people that was in one of the cars that got blasted by the GTO was taken to the hospital.

The GTO driver was a 22 year old from Florida.

Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 08:23:23

Figures. Our equivalent out here are California transplants driving AWD vehicles, which they believe are immune to slippery roads. They are the ones who flip their SUVs over in the median after a winter storm.

You can’t blame them I guess, these vehicles are always shown hauling ass down snow packed roads in the commercials, with the tiny disclaimer at the bottom of the screen “professional driver, please drive safely”

Comment by GEG
2011-12-27 08:43:56

It’s not just Californians. I was driving home yesterday on the freeway. Pretty good good snow coming down at about 10pm so the highway was not very busy. I have a 4X4 Expedition that’s my winter car with off road tires. The thing is a beast in the snow. But no matter how good the traction is, still takes longer to stop in snow AWD, 4WD, 2WD, doesn’t matter.

Anyway I was driving about 40-45 as was most traffic. But every now and then, I’d get passed by a car going 60, 70+. It wasn’t the SUVs or trucks, it was Civics or Accords that type of thing.

Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 09:50:39

But no matter how good the traction is, still takes longer to stop in snow AWD, 4WD, 2WD, doesn’t matter.</i?

Correct. Everyone has 4 wheel stop.

I was driving home yesterday on the freeway. Pretty good good snow coming down at about 10pm

Since it didn’t snow here yesterday I’ll assume that you don’t live in the Centennial State. Anyway, I read once that our county had one of the highest percentages of AWD/4WD vehicles in the nation. FWIW, the people I see driving like bats out of hell when the snow is blowing are the AWD drive crowd. I do see some loons in cars as well.

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Comment by GEG
2011-12-27 11:33:27

I live in E. Washington and anecdotally I see the opposite. The big trucks/SUVs are usually slow and steady. The little Civics are the bats out of hell. There are a lot of ex-Californians around, maybe it is them after all. They are invincible after all…

 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 13:54:11

Maybe your California “imports” are poorer than ours.Its seems that the first thing a Cali transplant does after moving here is to acquire a Lexus SUV.

 
Comment by shendi
2011-12-27 17:23:06

The best vehicles on snow are Subarus. The next best are civics. This has to do with lower cg and almost a square chassis.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2011-12-27 21:21:37

Small and heavy with narrow tires (with good tread) seems to be the best in snow, in my experience.

 
 
 
Comment by Montana
2011-12-27 11:23:48

which they believe are immune to slippery roads.

LOL. Yeah the greenhorn’s solution to the winter problem here, buy a big-a$$ ute and that handles it. I think a lot of the wrecks nowadays are simply due to people losing control of these rigs.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2011-12-27 08:34:59

“The GTO driver was a 22 year old from Florida.”

Or was the driver a foreign national whose last location of residence was Florida? Perhaps visiting some of the fambly in Kansas?

Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 11:03:55

I thought those guys favored “trokas” over cars.

 
Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Fl)
2011-12-27 11:47:50

Probably an illegal alien, which we have more than our share, driving a car stolen from Florida and headed someplace where he might not get noticed. Next stop…..chop shop….. didn’t make it.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-12-27 13:37:25

I’m guessing a soldier from Fort Riley.

Or a native Floridian Snowbird, who is a little late flying south for the winter :)

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Comment by Carl Morris
2011-12-27 16:30:00

I’m guessing a soldier from Fort Riley.

Fits all the clues.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by GEG
2011-12-27 07:52:34

Ron Paul supporters are not Republicans.

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/article/mischief-voters-push-paul-front-gop-race/276751

“In an analysis accompanying his most recent survey in Iowa, pollster Scott Rasmussen noted, “Romney leads, with Gingrich in second, among those who consider themselves Republicans. Paul has a wide lead among non-Republicans who are likely to participate in the caucus.”

The same is true in New Hampshire. A poll released Monday by the Boston Globe and the University of New Hampshire shows Paul leading among Democrats and independents who plan to vote in the January 10 primary. But among Republicans, Paul is a distant third — 33 points behind leader Mitt Romney.

In South Carolina, “Paul’s support is higher among those who usually don’t vote in GOP primary elections,” notes David Woodard, who runs the Palmetto Poll at Clemson University.”

Comment by palmetto
2011-12-27 08:46:34

“the Palmetto Poll”

Aw, shucks, they went and named a poll after me. I’m honored!

 
Comment by goon squad
2011-12-27 08:52:11

From the San Francisco Chronicle: Ron Paul rides grassroots zeal to surge in polls

“For a long time, the media perception was that (Ron Paul) was extreme or kooky, and they didn’t want to talk about him,” said Beltramo, a longtime independent voter who is changing his registration to Republican to cast his ballot for Paul in California’s June primary.

“I really like that he understands the economy and, in terms of foreign policy, he is the only one who is not wearing blinders regarding the costs of the military,” Beltramo said. “Newt Gingrich calls himself a historian, but Ron Paul is the only one who learns from history.”

With just days until Iowans hit their Jan. 3 caucuses and New Hampshire holds its primary Jan. 10, the efforts by grassroots supporters like Beltramo are forcing pundits to recalculate the political landscape. Paul has surged to the front of the GOP pack in Iowa and has advanced against Romney’s lead in New Hampshire.

“He was the Tea Party movement before there was a Tea Party movement,” Tulchin said. “Ron Paul has been consistent, sometimes in a wacky way … so the press has been outright dismissive of the guy from the start. But his poll numbers have been good.”

Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 09:25:34

“The press has been outright dismissive of the guy from the start”

So the richies perceive him as a threat?

Comment by goon squad
2011-12-27 09:35:25

See below…

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Comment by Carl Morris
2011-12-27 10:32:32

“Newt Gingrich calls himself a historian, but Ron Paul is the only one who learns from history.”

That’s a good quote.

 
 
Comment by goon squad
2011-12-27 08:59:50

From Counterpunch: Why the Establishment is Terrified of Ron Paul

“Ron Paul is being called anti-American, both by some of his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, and increasingly even by fearful Democrats who are starting to wonder, and apparently worry, about how Paul might fare against Barack Obama in the 2012 general election. The basis for this claim is Paul’s argument that the 9-11 attacks on the US were the predictable result of the history of American imperialist activity in the Middle East, and his claim that President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney were gleeful after that attacks because it allowed them to go to war against Afghanistan and Iraq.

The thing is, while you aren’t supposed to say it in polite company, Ron Paul is right about that. You don’t have to buy into conspiracy theories claiming that 9-11 was an “inside job” to see that Middle Eastern terror campaigns against the US were the predictable result — blow-back if you will — of a history of US imperialism in the Middle East and elsewhere, or of what Native American activist Ward Churchill rightly referred to as “chickens coming home to roost.” And we have it from a member of Bush’s own cabinet, former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill, that planning for an invasion and occupation of Iraq was in the works before Bush was even sworn into office in January 2001, while work on the fine print of the so-called USA PATRIOT Act was underway well before the first plane hit the first tower.

Paul is being labeled an “isolationist” (a hoary term that is supposedly a pejorative, dating back to World War I days, but which these days should actually be considered a compliment). The basis for this charge is that he calls for an end to America’s endless wars and to the fraudulent and enormously dangerous and damaging “War” on Terror. He also says he wants to close down the over 800 military bases that the US operates all around the world. Again, what has his establishment critics in high dudgeon is that his perspective is winning over an increasing number of Americans (including Republicans), who are finally waking up to the reality that a country that spends more than half of every tax dollar on its military, its wars, the debt for those wars, and on its secret spying operations, and that has itself on a permanent war footing, cannot prosper or even long endure.”

Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 09:29:50

FWIW Ward Churchill is a white guy with a fraction of native American blood. That said, I pretty much agree with him that the chickens are coming home to roost.

But yeah, Ron Paul is threatening the military industrial complex. I guess since he is so old he figures he has nothing to lose should they come after him.

 
Comment by palmetto
2011-12-27 09:39:17

“Paul is being labeled an “isolationist” (a hoary term that is supposedly a pejorative, dating back to World War I days, but which these days should actually be considered a compliment).”

I’ll take that as a compliment, too. And to think I wrote on this blog a while back “Stick a fork in him, he’s done”. Maybe there’s a chance for the old boy, yet. OTOH, having seen Cain and Gingrich “given the business”, I wonder if these “surges” in the polls and such are just a way of picking off each candidate who might potentially be a threat to mitty.

Call me paranoid, but just because yer paranoid, doesn’t mean they aren’t out to getya!

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2011-12-27 09:57:28

Sometimes we are given a window into how things really work, like this article:

‘non-Republicans who are likely to participate in the caucus’

To vote in this thing, a person has to be a resident of the state and sign up to vote. These voters are just as “Republican” as anyone else.

‘those who usually don’t vote in GOP primary elections’

The great majority of “Republicans” (or Democrats for that matter) do not vote in the primary, so are they not “real Republicans” either?

Have you ever noticed the two parties don’t do a ‘get out the vote’ initiative until after the primaries?

This country is supposedly a democratic republic. We vote on some parts of our government, others fall under the constitution. But then there is this two party system, which is not mentioned in the constitution, but actually is the basis for how things are done in the Federal government. We all know that it is virtually impossible to be elected President outside of this two party system. Fear not, all a person or group has to do is go through the process, get nominated (select a nominee) and let the people decide in the general election, which everyone can vote in.

But here we see the two party system for what it is; a process that excludes. And who is doing the excluding?

Forget about the person Ron Paul and consider this; right now there is only one candidate for the presidency who is firmly against undeclared wars. One candidate for the presidency that is against presidential powers to assassinate and detain US citizens. Consider that the great majority of US citizens are against more wars, and value their constitutional protections. Indeed, the only oath at the Federal level is to the constitution.

We have seen in the recent past habeas corpus done away with. Most of the 1st, 10th and 14th amendments are gone. The War Powers Resolution is gone. We haven’t even see congressional hearings on this. In this context, we now have the two party system working overtime to exclude the one presidential candidate that is seeking to ensure/resurrect these constitutional protections.

The two party system has for decades failed the citizens on both parts of our system of government. It isn’t democratic and it is destroying the Republic.

Comment by GEG
2011-12-27 11:20:00

Ron Paul is a paranoid loon who sees a conspiracy (perpetrated by the Jooooos no doubt) behind every black helicopter. That’s why we won’t win the nomination. That’s why he is a laughing stock.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2011-12-27 11:58:58

‘a paranoid loon’

‘who sees a conspiracy perpetrated by the Jooooos’

Wow, that’s a mature position. Actually, it’s not a position at all. Why don’t you speak out here, GEG? You’re anonymous after all. Who’s your candidate? What’s your position on allowing the president to start wars without congressional declaration? What about habeas corpus? Come on, tell us why we don’t need these things.

Tell us why assassinating/detaining Americans should be left to Obama alone to decide. Tell us why the people shouldn’t get to chose on these things that concern THEIR rights and freedoms.

‘why we won’t win the nomination’

Who’s this “we”? If the “we” doesn’t win the nomination, maybe it’s because your “front runners” aren’t acceptable to the people. Maybe it’s because they can’t even get on their own parties ballot in Virginia!

‘he is a laughing stock’

Again, they can’t even get on their own parties ballot. Now that’s funny! He’s about to win the first primary, fair and square. Maybe you “real Republicans” aren’t representative of the party after all.

 
Comment by measton
2011-12-27 12:12:58

Well according to one poll he doesn’t represent the Tea party. He got a whopping 6% of their vote.
I think he appeals to peopel dissatisfied with political prostitutes on both sides.
As someone often accused of being on the left, who has some real questions about some of his positions, I’m voting for him in the primary. He says what he believes even if it means boos at the debates. His views need to get thrown into the debate and they are being minimized even now. Once it’s a 2 person race then they will have to let him speak to the country as a whole. I think the debate would be much more educational for this country than say a Romney Obama which would be argueing over symantics and things that don’t matter and the others who would be name calling.

 
Comment by goon squad
2011-12-27 12:36:08

Ron Paul is in it to win it, and the crybaby bedwetter corporatist warmonger republicans who don’t like it are just a bunch of sore loosers…

 
Comment by GEG
2011-12-27 12:46:48

“I’m voting for him in the primary. ”
- Measton

Exactly. You’re voting for him but you have no intention of voting for him in the general. This was the point of the article I posted above. Republicans aren’t voting for him. His support comes from Democrats who like his anti-military, anti-Israel, anti-free trade rhetoric but who would never dream of voting against Obama in November.

Ben Jones:

I have no candidate. They all suck. Whomever it is will get trounced by Obama so it’s all moot.

 
Comment by oxide
2011-12-27 13:21:39

Once it’s a 2 person race then they will have to let him speak to the country as a whole.

Yes, and that’s when We The People will find out that he is an equal opportunity chopper. He’s got some good ideas about pulling out of some military bases and eliminating a few unnecessary subsidies (CORN!), but wait until he takes the ax to Social Security and Medicare. Or until services to the poor are relegated to churches and charities, or until public schools are privitized back to the point where families will have to chose which kid gets to learn past 8th grade, or until factories and power plants are are again allowed to belch out poisons to where they have to shut things down two weeks before the Superbowl.

I think that if Obama is re-elected, Paul would make an outstanding “waste fraud and abuse” czar. Turn him loose amongst the agencies, making a list of cuts, and then Obama can approve or veto the list as he sees fit.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2011-12-27 13:29:13

‘I have no candidate’

Wait a minute. I asked you several questions that gave you an opportunity to show you can think for yourself, and you pass?

I’m guessing you are either lying or are a troll. But to play along with the idea you are just stupid and apathetic: here’s a thought; lead follow or get the hell out of the way.

Or if you really are 15 YO and have nothing better to do than mess with the adults, when you get out of home economics this afternoon, stay off my blog.

 
Comment by ahansen
2011-12-27 13:51:45

I support Ron Paul (and yes, I do send him money,) for the same reason I support Barbara Lee, Bernie Sanders, Dana Rohrabacher, and folks like Alan Grayson; these people are outliers. They’re not afraid to get impassioned, they frequently tell the status quo to go straight to hades, and quite often they make a lot of sense in the doing so. People like this give us independents a voice in the national debate, (not that we necessarily agree with it,) serving the very valuable function of making the PTB uncomfortable and extending the conversation beyond the “accepted” limits.

Ron Paul is like the National Enquirer. (Which I also support.) He reports on the rumor, as it were, says what everyone is thinking and gets the topic out there into the mainstream while his reputation as a slightly discreditable source allows him to absorb the “shock” of the revelation. Then the more “establishment” outlets are free to quote and discuss without a hit to their credibility.

If Paul wins the Iowa caucus and does well in New Hampshire, you can bet that auditing the Fed and reconsidering our Israeli-led saber-rattling against Iran (and meddling in Syria,) will become hot right-wing talking points in the coming months. So I say, more power to him.

But he’d be totally ineffectual in the White House. You think Congressional gridlock is bad now…?

 
Comment by measton
2011-12-27 14:05:37

“You’re voting for him but you have no intention of voting for him in the general. ”

I want to see him in a national debate with Obama. I think he is being marginalized. I’d like to see him explain himself on the national stage. I might vote for him that’s not off the table. I think some of his policies would cause a lot of problems, but the PTB approved politicians have caused a lot of problems as well. I want a real debate not puppet one vs puppet 2.

 
Comment by Montana
2011-12-27 14:58:18

Caucuses are a whole different animal from elections, and Ron Paul’s people do caucuses well. That takes dedication, and a few can make a candidate look stronger than he really is with the base.

I predict he won’t do that well in NH and his campaign will sink.

 
 
 
Comment by seen it all
2011-12-27 11:10:38

whatever his shortcomings i think i’ll vote for Ron Paul (again- i did once when he was a libertarian).

only if obama is nip and tuck with the repub nominee would i consider the “O”.

The fear he instills in the PTB will unlikely be seen by another politician for a long time.

 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2011-12-27 08:36:47

Today’s houses: Second Home edition

Say you’re a wealthy defense contractor and you want a second home so that you can “get away from it all.” [because the whirlpool tub in the master sute, the 'outdoor room' with bbq, and the Acura in the three-car garage just aren't enough getaways for you.] Now’s a great time to buy!!

House 1: Up in the mountains. Oakland is located in the extreme western bit of Maryland, sandwiched between WV and PA.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/609-Nicklaus-Ave-Oakland-MD-21550/64599705_zpid/

1974 3/2 ranch on .35 acres. Good plan, nice looking yard, on the outskirts of a small town == bike to downtown and walk a block to the golf course. Kitchen needs to find new paint, living room furniture needs to find dumpster. But overall a nice getaway.

Feb 2002: $192K
Jul 2011: Listed $194K The buble doesn’t seem to have affected the outlying areas.

House 2: Down on the beach:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2-Saint-Lawrence-St-Rehoboth-Beach-DE-19971/2132629529_zpid/

1972 5/4 flat contemporary entertainment house directly on the beach. Got a huge great room and modern kitchen. Almost entirely windows. Lots of decks and patios. Has the most hilarious price curve I’ve seen in months; I’m sure there are typos.

Jan 2007: Zestimated $166,000
Dec 2011: Zestimated $1,006,200
Dec 2011: Listed $6,750,000

House 3: Down on the Farm

5/1 run-down farmhouse on 1.8 acres near Lancaster PA. Has all the trappings of bucolic bliss: rolling hills out back, sunny fields out back, green woods out back, old vehicles out back, leaning barn out back. It has an addition and new septic but the pix don’t show it. Old paneling on the wall. Dryer next to the fridge. IMO, not worth the price. There are plenty of other run-down farmsteads to buy.

May 2002: Zestimate $114K
Sep 2004: Sold $110K
Nov 2011: Listed $169K

 
Comment by palmetto
2011-12-27 08:37:25

A gated municipality. Think about that for a moment. Not a gated subdivision, but a gated municipality. Back to medieval times! And of course, this is CA, where third world disparity is beginning to be the norm.

http://urbanexus.wordpress.com/2011/12/26/the-gated-municipality-of-hidden-hills-california/

Friggin’ just dig a moat.

Comment by oxide
2011-12-27 08:54:24

Fortresses and private armies for the rich. Predicted here on HBB.

Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 09:24:01

They still need to come out of of their gated community/city once in a while, even if it’s just to take the kids to Disneyland. And speaking of which, just blocks away from the Magic Kingdom’s “neutral zone” the houses have bars on the windows and the supermarket (where I ventured one night to buy some snacks) has an armed guard on duty (a nearby Walgreens also had an armed guard).

And the house prices in that hellhole dwarfed those in my safe flyover country nabe.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-12-27 13:46:16

The rich don’t go to Disneyland. They go to places like Aspen, Palm Springs, Jackson, Wyoming, and the Grand Caymans.

I see Manhattan getting concrete walls, like in “Escape from New York”. Except the guns and barbed wire will be directed outward.

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Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 14:02:38

The rich don’t go to Disneyland.

You’d be surprised.

Ever heard of Club 33? Keep in mind, this is a membership club restaurant inside of Disneyland.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Club_33

“As of 2011, there is a 14 year wait list for new memberships. The membership wait list has been closed for several years until the waiting time is significantly reduced. Corporate members pay an initiation fee of $27,500, and individual members pay $10,000 in addition to annual dues, which are about $6,100 or $3,500, respectively. Initiation and dues may change annually.”

Have you ever priced a night at the Grand California Lodge? Try $400 a night.

There is also a restaurant in the Lodge called The Napa Rose. It is considered by many to be one of the best restaurants in Orange County.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Napa_Rose_%28restaurant%29

 
 
 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2011-12-27 10:15:04

This is a standard element of futuristic dystopian science fiction - walled cities heavily policed by corporate security forces.

Comment by palmetto
2011-12-27 10:27:46

“futuristic dystopian science fiction - walled cities heavily policed by corporate security forces”

Science fiction borrows heavily from the past. Except for the corporate part (and that’s up to debate) there’s nothing futuristic about walled cities. In fact, it’s quite retro, as in ancient civ. The Greeks had their walled or fortified city states, as did many medieval and later civilizations.

Watch Rick Steves, he guides his viewers through many of the walled cities of Europe. However, the difference is, the former residents of these walled cities used to raise the gates for the peasants, serfs, villagers and merchants residing outside the walls and provide them with protection when the region was under attack by opposing forces.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2011-12-27 11:02:16

It really IS different this time. :lol:

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Comment by seen it all
2011-12-27 11:17:03

The high security is normal in developing countries.

 
 
 
Comment by Muggy
2011-12-27 09:34:47

Paging Carl Hiaasen! Just another day in paradise!

“ST. PETERSBURG — A family on vacation got an unexpected surprise Tuesday morning when they discovered a human leg that washed ashore from Tampa Bay.”

http://www.tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/human-leg-washes-from-bay-to-st-petersburg-home/1207942

Comment by Anon in dc
2011-12-27 10:42:19

Are stories like this bad reporting or the authorities don’t want to share clues
Was the leg just from the knee or below? or higher up.
Could the medical examiner tell how “fresh” the leg is?
Could you guess whether from a male or female?
Nice clean cut or jagged edges?
etc…

Comment by alpha-sloth
2011-12-27 13:22:29

The reporters won’t do the legwork.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-12-27 13:47:29

:)

Someone took a load off their foot.

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Comment by stewie
2011-12-27 15:11:29

“rimshot”

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-12-27 09:44:34

Interesting article on BRIC’s bubble popping would be “worse” than America’s because of American laws and “system” of foreclosures. (How’s that “system” working out?) Looks like India’s houses have quadrupled and Brazil’s have tripled in 10 years.

Foreclosure after real estate bubbles burst in EMs
December 26, 2011 08:11 AM

http://www.moneylife.in/article/foreclosure-after-real-estate-bubbles-burst-in-ems/22437.html

The consequences of a real estate bust in emerging markets would create quite a different situation than the real estate bust in developed markets. The rules are much different and so would the outcome. A burst real estate bubble in emerging markets would be far more severe and would last much longer.

The reason is simple. The legal plumbing in these countries, including foreclosures and bankruptcy laws, is either deficient at best or nonexistent at worst. There isn’t even information on it. Despite diligent search in all financial news sources and general internet search, I have found few if any references to emerging market foreclosures.

Many economists like to point out that mortgage lending in these countries is still quite small and often requires large down payments. True, but it has been growing at 20% a year in places like India. In China bank-financed construction makes up twice the percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) as it does in developed countries.

For a country to grow after the crash of a real estate bubble, the market has to reach equilibrium. To do so requires that over priced homes with delinquent mortgages have to be foreclosed and sold. If the procedure for foreclosure doesn’t exist, then the entire economy gets stuck with massive dud loans and zombie banks as occurred for over a decade in Japan. So when the emerging markets collapse, the recovery will take years.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-12-27 11:01:07

“So when the emerging markets collapse, the recovery will take years.”

As opposed to the decade it will take here?

Comment by measton
2011-12-27 12:38:15

and the 2 decades for Japan

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 13:04:05

2 decades so far

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Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-12-27 09:57:24

Sad News for us that are interest in “that-sorta-thing”: :-/

When asked recently if there was a secret to his success, Collins responded, “Really simple things when you think about it. Mostly just follow your passion, try to be a really good person and a good judge of character, and then just surround yourself with a great team and really good people. Add lots of luck and all kinds of great things can happen!”

Surfline’s entire staff — as well as countless surfers worldwide — are in a state of shock at the news.

Surfline Founder Sean Collins passes away at 59
Surfline/Wavetrak

Born in Southern California on April 8, 1952, Collins’ fondness for the ocean was cultivated aboard a 50-foot sailboat owned by his father, Whitney, a general contractor and navy lieutenant during World War II. Venturing around Long Beach as well as entering races to Mexico and Hawaii, Collins first became interested in meteorology as it related to sailing and surfing.

A Seal Beach surfer since age eight, he competed in local WSA events with success. He spent two years at the Hawaii Preparatory Academy on the Big Island, frequently ditching class to surf and explore new spots on the Outer Islands. More explorer than competitor, he nonetheless narrowly missed the finals of the inaugural Katin Challenge in 1977 surfing for the Harbour Surf Team, advancing past many world-renowned pros in big, closed-out surf at Huntington Cliffs, which was eventually won by Shaun Tomson.

By the early ’80s, he was adept at forecasting swells and shared the information with his friends. “People started calling,” he reflects, “‘You don’t know me,’ they’d say. ‘I’m a friend of a friend, but what do you think Mexico’s gonna be like next week?’”

Collins and wife Daren had their first son, Tyler, in 1983, prompting Collins to seek more secure employment. In 1984, when some Orange County businessmen requested his services as a founder to develop proprietary surf reporting and forecasting services for a fledgling phone venture called Surfline, he jumped at the chance. After two years dedicated to the operation without promising long-term incentives or prospects, he left to begin a rival company called Wavetrak.

The new project was so successful that he bought out Surfline in 1990. Collins soon expanded his products and services to other mediums and offered a subscription-based WaveFax, and in 1995 he launched Surfline.com, a website featuring free surf reports from around the country. Collins also developed the very first live surf cam in February 1996, the precedent for the extensive cam network available on Surfline.com today. Throughout the late ’90s, the free reports and live surf cameras on Surfline.com severely cut into the company’s primary phone and fax revenue, but he ignored the short-term losses in view of the bigger picture.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2011-12-27 11:05:12

So what was the cause?

Comment by Hwy50ina49Dodge
2011-12-27 12:15:51

age 59, heart attack

Comment by turkey lurkey
2011-12-27 13:02:36

Dang.

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Comment by ahansen
2011-12-27 13:59:50

RIP beyond the rip, dude.
My condolences to his family.

 
Comment by Muggy
2011-12-27 14:38:28

I had no idea Boomers die.

 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-12-27 10:07:37

According to this site the Sao Paulo’s gross annual rental yield is standing at about 7% and Rio’s is about 6%. Please correct me if I’m wrong but I do not remember those types of rental yield’s being available in Coastal California since about 1998. No? Do these figures and ratio’s indicate a bubble?

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Latin-America/Brazil/Rental-Yields

Rio Apartment:

120 sq. m. Price: 538,200 Monthly Rent: 2,687 Annual Yield: 5.99%

Comment by Rental Watch
2011-12-27 11:00:38

Rio,

Buying foreclosures in Los Angeles County can now provide a rental yield of 7-9%…AFTER ALL EXPENSES (taxes, insurance, R&M). The equivalent number BEFORE expenses is about 11-12% (trying to make the comparison apples/apples).

This would indicate either a) that Rio is overpriced, or b) Los Angeles is underpriced. Achieving such yields in LA is historically quite rare, so I think “b” is true to some extent. “a” may also be be true…the question is to what extent.

Neither market may be at equilibrium, but I wouldn’t say that Rio is in bubble territory based on those yields. I would guess that the yield after all expenses is in the 4% range…it seems to me that the prices are on the higher end of a “normal” range, where Los Angeles is below the low end of a “normal” range.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 11:15:56

Half a mill for an apartment? Much like the apartment in Soylent Green, at that price I would expect it to include the Girl from Ipanema.

Now as Rio pointed out yesterday, these are not the abodes of the middle class, who live in much humbler (and much cheaper) dwellings elsewhere (probably further inland). There is no shortage of land in Brazil, it’s just that most of it is not on the coast.

I’m guessing that the middle class homes look more like this:

http://www.cnnexpansion.com/media/2010/04/08/vivienda-interes-social.jpg

 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2011-12-27 10:17:05

Bailout tracking. The first link is Matt Taibbi’s observations on the issue, around the middle of the page. The second link he directly links, but I’m pulling it out separately and linking it below as well.

1) http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/mailbag-alan-greenspan-david-brooks-and-bailouts-20110307

2) A breakdown of the bailouts: http://www.nomiprins.com/reports/

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-12-27 11:14:28


Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil

2011-12-26 23:23:46

[...]
1. I’ve already realized and exceeded my profit expected in money and lifestyle on Brazil.

Rio, you’ve brought this point up at least a couple of times, but it seems very irrelevant to the question at hand: is Brazil in the throes of a housing bubble, or no?

The fact that you have benefited (quadrupled value), and realized those gains speaks only to your personal balance sheet; it does not speak to whether it is a bubble or not. There were plenty who gained here in the US on the rising bubble, and some who cashed out/realized their gains so they did not lose on the downside. I’m glad you are doing well and have cashed out enough that you will not be impacted too badly if you are wrong about the bubble/no-bubble question.

I’m wondering whether you and pussycat are arguing different questions. Your 12pts seem like they argue pretty strongly that the Brazilian economy will continue to thrive; I think FPSS was arguing strictly the question of whether there is a housing bubble there.

The two are not mutually-exclusive. It’s quite possible that they other positive things going for the economy will mute the effects of a housing downturn so that they don’t have the wide-spread effects that you see in other economies that were heavily dependent on housing construction sector as a component of GDP.

It will be really interesting to watch; please keep us posted here!

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2011-12-27 13:37:13

Rental Watch, Colorado, Prime is Contained,

Rental Watch: Thanks for the ratio info. I tend to agree.

Colorado: The R$538K was in Brazilian Reals or about 300K US dollars. The house pic you posted would be a lower-middle class inland home most likely. Now only an upper middle-class couple with some family help could afford a Rio decent neighborhood $300K apartment.

I’m wondering whether you and pussycat are arguing different questions. (Brazilian economy vs Brazil housing bubble)

Prime_Is_Contained: Pussycat basically said the BRIC’s currencies would be “burned to a crisp” which portends much worse economic events than simply a housing bubble. And yes, I was defending Brazil’s economy and potential to rebound much more than I was defending a potential housing bubble.

The fact that you ….realized those gains speaks only to your personal balance sheet; it does not speak to whether it is a bubble or not.

I know that and I usually don’t bring up my personal business and I think it’s crude to flaunt profits but I mentioned my profiting in Brazil for 2 reasons only: 1. I am not a LasVegasLandlord type. Explaining that I was “out” of half of my Brazil real estate and that I was pretty far ahead and protected from great loss on the other would show that I could be more objective on my bubble opinion than someone who was “all in”.

2. Pussycat was very rude implying that he was going to love to see me personally hammered and “raped” (the foul word he used) in a bubble collapse. To temper his anticipating “joy” on my demise, I let him know roughly my losses protection. Was discussing my profits relevant to my points 1 and 2? Yes. Did I like doing it? No. Would I do it again if insulted, told he will take great joy in my downfall, accused of being a bubble blower, hit with straw-man after straw man false arguments and spoken to in a foul manner? IDK and I hope I don’t have to find out.

I don’t think I can be “wrong” on the Brazil bubble thing because I don’t know if there is one or not. Is one wrong when one doesn’t know? I sold my one investment property (too soon lol) as a hedge. As Rental Watch pointed out, the rental yields on Rio apartments indicate the market is over priced but does overpriced and due for a correction mean “bubble”? I don’t know what the rental yield has averaged the past 40 years here so maybe it’s normal. The most popular city in South America is expensive and maybe always will be.

Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 14:47:13

I’ll give you credit Rio. You posted facts and statistics to back up your position, while admitting that there might be a bubble in upper class apartments in Rio. Basically all Pussycat did was say “I’m an expert, therefore I’m right”.

Comment by measton
2011-12-27 15:18:33

+1

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Comment by butters
2011-12-27 12:19:44

Woohoo….Senator from Warren Buffet to retire.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 13:06:57

Huh?

Comment by oxide
2011-12-27 13:29:47

Ben Nelson (D-Neb) to retire.

He’s a D in a sea of red, and was a major target to be ousted in 2012 anyway.

It’s been common knowledge for a long time that 2012 is going to be a weak year for the Dems in the Senate. A lot more Dems than R’s were up for re-election, and many of the the Dems are just about to hit retirement age. There is a strong chance the R’s will take the Senate. It doesn’t really matter. Even if D’s lose the Senate and don’t take the House, they can just filibuster everything now that there is precedent for it.

The interesting year will be 2014.

Comment by butters
2011-12-27 14:43:50

D or R, does it matter?

If you are from the Oracle’s state, you are Oracle’s personal senator.

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Comment by jeff saturday
2011-12-27 12:47:33

Down 45% from 2006 and 40% to go.

5809 Urdea Rd
MLS#: R3175944
Orig. LP $164,900
List Price $ 139,000
Short Sale YES
DOM: 314
———————————————————————————-
Property Appraiser

5809 URDEA RD

BAS BASE AREA 1088
Total Square Footage : 1426

Sales InfoSale Date Sale Price
03/02/2009 $10
02/14/2007 $10
03/13/2006 $245,000
04/23/2000 $10
12/01/1996 $86,500
03/01/1996 $70,000
01/01/1986 $63,500
01/01/1979 $9,000

Tax Year: 2011
Assessed Value: $117,745
Exemption Amount: $0
Taxable Value: $117,745

Total Tax
$3,244

 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2011-12-27 12:58:32

Hooray for corporate communism, er, I mean capitalism!

http://www.treehugger.com/green-architecture/state-maine-bans-use-leed-state-construction.html

State of Maine Bans Use Of LEED In State Construction

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 13:09:24

Jeremy Stein is noted for his housing finance research.

Dec. 27, 2011, 2:31 p.m. EST
Obama to nominate Stein, Powell to Fed board
By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — President Barack Obama on Tuesday said he’ll nominate a Democrat and a Republican to fill two vacancies on the Federal Reserve board.

In a statement, Obama said he will tap Jeremy Stein, a Harvard University finance professor, and Jerome Powell, a former private-equity executive, to join the seven-person Fed board.

Every board member of the Federal Reserve also holds a seat on the interest-rate setting Federal Open Market Committee, along with the president of the New York Fed and four other regional Fed bank presidents.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 13:10:54

Gold hammered again — now back below $1600/oz.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2011-12-27 13:15:01

Depending on the timing, we will either buy after a further 10%+ drop or never.

And if necessary, I am willing to pack up and relocate to cheaper housing when the time is right.

Dec. 27, 2011, 11:32 a.m. EST
U.S. home prices drop in October: Case-Shiller
By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. home prices took a step backward for a second month in October, according to a key index released Tuesday.

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index fell 1.2% in October to moves its 12-month drop to 3.4%. After five straight months of gains starting in April, prices have started to cool. The gauge isn’t seasonally adjusted, and there is generally greater interest in buying homes during the spring and summer.

Nineteen of 20 cities saw price drops during the month, with 11 falling by 1% or more. The market in Atlanta has had two terrible months, with a 5% drop in October after a 5.9% decline in September. Cleveland prices also are sharply moving lower.

“The stall earlier this year probably resulted from a slowing of the foreclosure pipeline after the media reported that lenders had cut corners in processing foreclosures,” said Patrick Newport, U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight. He forecasts prices falling another 5% to 10%.

 
Comment by jeff saturday
2011-12-27 13:56:06

Could always cut down on rent by moving into a trailer park. Or not.

Police: Neighbor chopped up Ind. girl with hacksaw

By TOM LoBIANCO
The Associated Press
3:06 p.m. Tuesday, December 27, 2011

FORT WAYNE, Ind. — A babysitter and trusted neighbor has confessed that he bludgeoned a 9-year-old Indiana girl to death with a brick then dismembered her, hiding her head, hands and feet at a home where he was staying and dumping the rest of her remains nearby, police said Tuesday.

Allen County sheriff’s investigators said in an affidavit that 39-year-old Michael Plumadore admits he killed Aliahna Lemmon on Thursday.

According to the affidavit, Plumadore told police that after beating Aliahna to death on the front steps of the home in the early morning hours, he stuffed her body into trash bags and hid her in the freezer at the home in a rundown trailer park in Fort Wayne. He said he later chopped up her body with a hacksaw and stuffed her remains into freezer bags.

Police said Plumadore told them he had hidden Aliahna’s head, feet and hands at the trailer and discarded her other remains at a nearby business. Police obtained a warrant to search the trailer on Monday and found the body parts.

http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/police-neighbor-chopped-up-1275642.html

Comment by In Colorado
2011-12-27 14:39:38

This kind of stuff happens in “good” nabes too (unfortunately). Not all crazies are white trash.

Comment by jeff saturday
2011-12-27 15:05:48

I didn`t say people who live in trailer parks were white or any other color trash, nor did I say that all crazies were white trash. I did say I was not going to save money by moving into a trailer park or any other “affordable” neighborhood. You know, the ones where the PTB have let prices fall to affordable levels.

Dad, Stepmother Charged With Boy’s Murder In Trailer Park « CBS …
10 May 2011 … The father and stepmother of a 13-year-old boy whose body was found in a Gary, Ind., trailer park last week have now been charged with the …
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2011/05/10/sister-boy-found-dead-in-trailer-park-lived-in-dog-cage/ - 156k - Cached - Similar pages

Fourth suspect in trailer park murder | McKinleyville Press Blog
8 Apr 2009 … Fourth suspect in trailer park murder. Just in from the Sheriff’s Dept.: williams-ii williams1. A fourth suspect in the Ezra Sanders homicide has …
http://mckinleyvillepress.wordpress.com/2009/04/08/fourth-suspect-in-trailer-park-murder/ - 42k - Cached - Similar pages

MY EVERETT NEWS - - Mobile home park murder – - Everett, WA …
Everett Mobile Home Park Murder Update – Missing Jeep Found. October 7, 2011. 0 Comments. The Everett Police Department is confirming that the Jeep …
http://myeverettnews.com/tag/mobile-home-park-murder/ - 76k - Cached - Similar pages

South End Murder Suspect Found in Texas Trailer Park - South End …
20 Sep 2011 … Anthony Thames has been charged with the August shooting of Raymond Lemar.
http://southend.patch.com/articles/south-end-murder-suspect-found-in-texas-trailer-park - 167k - Cached - Similar pages

Cops nab suspect in Pojoaque trailer park murder | LAMonitor.com
3 Dec 2011 … POJOAQUE, N.M. (AP) — Authorities in Santa Fe County say two men who tried to intervene in a domestic dispute were stabbed by a man who …
http://www.lamonitor.com/content/cops-nab-suspect-pojoaque-trailer-park-murder - 58k - Cached - Similar pages

The Other McCain: Brunswick Trailer Park Murders
30 Aug 2009 … Seven people dead in a trailer park in Georgia. Gruesome. The arrest of Heinze does not make him a suspect. It looks like murder-suicide: …
http://rsmccain.blogspot.com/2009/08/brunswick-trailer-park-murders.html - 152k - Cached - Similar pages

James Valley’s Journal: Murder in Ponderosa Trailer Park in Phillips …
8 Sep 2011 … Murder in Ponderosa Trailer Park in Phillips County, Arkansas. We have reports that the Phillips County Sheriff Department is investigating a …
http://www.jamesvalleyjournal.com/2011/09/murder-in-ponderosa-trailer-park-in.html - 134k - Cached - Similar pages

Kentucky trailer park murders: the intractable nature of poverty and …
13 Sep 2010 … I was talking with my mom this morning about the recent murders at a trailer park in eastern Kentucky. Mom was born in Ashland, Kentucky, …
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/arresting-tales/2010/09/kentucky-trailer-park-murders-the-intractable-nature-of-poverty-and-crime.html - 43k - Cached - Similar pages

I could go on.

Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-12-27 16:32:40

Does that mean you can’t live in a trailer outside of a trailer park?

What about those folks?

Is it the trailer?

Is it the park?

Is it the people?

Or is it really something else?

Ya know….. those who gather in trailer parks wouldn’t be there if they had another choice. I have friends and acquaintances who live in trailer parks. They don’t have the same economic opportunity that I do. Is that their fault too?

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Comment by Carl Morris
2011-12-27 17:00:45

All I know is that I feel fine where I am, but there’s no way I’d ever leave the kid with a “trusted friend” in any neighborhood. He’s 11 now…I figure just a few more years and I’ll be able to relax a bit.

 
Comment by jeff saturday
2011-12-27 18:27:27

“Is it the trailer?”

“Is it the park?”

“Is it the people?”

I`m going to give the trailer the benefit of the doubt.

“Ya know….. those who gather in trailer parks wouldn’t be there if they had another choice.”

That may be the case in many instances, and I know of some trailer parks around here that are mostly retired people and are pretty nice. I knew people (before they had kids) that lived in trailers to save money to buy a house in the 80s, there was a mixed crowd there and yes some that lived there had no other alternative. I also know a couple of triler parks that are pretty much drug and crime havens and that is a lifestyle choice and probably the model for most of the stories posted above.

One question though, how do tornadoes always know where to find a trailer park?

 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-12-27 20:25:36

Dunno Jethro…. they seem to be tornado magnets.

PS- Those folks I know that live in trailers (parks or on their lot) don’t use drugs.

 
 
 
Comment by jeff saturday
2011-12-27 15:40:30

“This kind of stuff happens in “good” nabes too (unfortunately).”

I know, Martha Moxley sat behind me in typing when I was a sophmore in highschool. Until Oct. 29 anyway.

Comment by Anon in dc
2011-12-27 19:05:40

Ewww… that’s creepy. But somone who sat behind me in history did in his little brother and buried him in back yard. Very nice neighborhood, too.

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Comment by jeff saturday
2011-12-27 20:11:05

That`s worse! Michael Skakel didn`t sit behind me he went to a private school. POS that he was and is.

 
 
 
 
Comment by rms
2011-12-27 20:31:07

“Could always cut down on rent by moving into a trailer park. Or not.”

I’ve been told by a female detective that the registered sex offenders prefer the unincorporated areas of the county because the oversight is lax compared to being within city limits.

 
 
Comment by seen it all
2011-12-27 14:49:10

Wow Jeff. thanks for the update on Man’s capacity for cruelty. It’s not very informative in deciding if a given trailer park would be suitable or not, though.

Just to change the subject, I saw this in the NY times today:
(I have redacted it for brevity)

Slicing Costs Still Serving

“We need that Circuit City event,” said Steve West, a restaurant industry analyst.

Led by quickly expanding chains, the number of restaurants in the country grew by more than 100,000 from 1996 to 2008. By that year, there were 545,678 restaurants nationwide, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The most crowded sector of the industry is midprice restaurants, which include chains like Applebee’s and Chili’s. Mr. West estimated that as many as 13,000 midprice restaurants would have to close to balance supply and demand and return the industry to prerecession levels of profitability.
The oversupply is partly a result of the economics of the restaurant chains, which often keep underperforming restaurants open as long as they are generating enough money to cover basic costs, said Mark F. Fallon, vice president for real estate for Jeffrey R. Anderson Real Estate, a Cincinnati.

But in the eyes of some competitors, Mr. Fallon’s firm may be contributing to the oversupply problem. The company is in the process of completing a new development in downtown Cincinnati called the Banks, which will include 300 apartments and, by the end of next year, up to 10 new restaurants, with a total of about 3,000 seats. They include chains like Johnny Rockets and Toby Keith’s I Love This Bar and Grill.

Harry E. Stephens, the co-owner of two Cincinnati restaurants, one a short drive from the new development, can hardly believe it. “There are restaurants downtown that are struggling now and you add all those seats,” he said. “They’re going to drain our market share for sure.”

“I don’t think we’re overbuilt,” he said of the industry. “I think we’re underdemolished.”

 
Comment by Erik
2011-12-27 15:08:44

Many comments here and I apologize if someone else has covered this ground, but SFrenter complains of having paid $250K over 12 years in rent which works out to $20K/year or so.
Didn’t describe the house, but it has a garage, so how small can it be? The question is, given the 13-14 year time to pay down principal on a 30 year mortgage to 80% of the original loan amount, what would he have paid to rent the money for the last 12 years if he bought the place?
Of course there’s always the question of what monetary value to assign to the emotional factor of not having the nasty landlady tell you to clean out the garage…wonder why she asked that?

I actually ended up buying an ultimately valuable commercial property I’d been renting because the landlord got on me because the city got on him about shoveling the snow from public sidewalks in front of the place, a thing I believe is involuntary servitude and I refuse to do it, but that’s another story. Anyhow, I bought the place and paid double my prior rent for a 10 year note and ended up owning the place free and clear. So it was a winner, but I bought in 94 before the bubble. Buying the same place now with pricing still aspirational and the market falling wouldn’t work out the same way.

Comment by WT Economist
2011-12-27 15:24:38

I understand how SF renter feels. The bottom line is too many people want to live in SF, and there is not enough SF to go around. And SF has a very volatile economy, with things getting nuts when the IT startups are getting money, like now.

It is, what, five years after the peak? I had to wait seven years, 1987 to 1994, to buy in Brooklyn, and the bottom didn’t come for another year or two afterward. That means sticking it up to 2013.

Are you already in West SF, SF renter? It seems the rent is more reasonable there.

But the bottom line is SF = Manhattan, not New York City. And the only teachers who can live in Manhattan are those who got in early (and got the pension enrichments that are in fact wrecking education, including for younger teachers) and those who have rich spouses. I never ever considered living in Manhattan — renting or buying. It was Brooklyn, the Bronx or Queens, and a 45 minute-plus subway ride (now an 55 minute bike ride) in.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-12-27 15:28:18

“but SFrenter complains of having paid $250K over 12 years in rent which works out to $20K/year or so.”

I almost replied earlier with the same thought—glad you did so, Erik.

“what would he have paid to rent the money for the last 12 years if he bought the place?”

That’s the key phrase right there. Well put.

Many choose to think of rent as “wasted money”, but they don’t stop and think about how the dollars paid to rent the _money_ that you use to buy are equally wasted. The interest is equally wasted (after you net out the tax advantage, of course).

 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2011-12-27 16:41:00

Yeah. But what about the snow on the sidewalks? :)

 
 
Comment by Muggy
2011-12-27 15:32:26

“Tampa Bay area home prices fell by 0.5 percent in October, according to a Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 cities released Tuesday. Bay area prices are down 6.1 percent from October 2010.”

http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/realestate/article1207940.ece

Like FPSS said, think of it as 6% on your money!

 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-12-27 16:22:25

The character assassination of RP continues.

 
Comment by Muggy
2011-12-27 17:22:53

So my wife and I checked out a few neighborhoods today and saw a split-level that we liked that was obviously abandoned, so we did some googling and public records checks. The husband died last summer, two months after the wife went to jail for felony battery on a person < 65. She was released a few months ago. In 2009 they refied to the tune of $415k, and haven’t paid their 2011 taxes.

Any ideas on how to approach this woman about buying her house for $165k without getting murdered?

 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2011-12-27 18:24:33

“Any ideas on how to approach this woman about buying her house for $165k without getting murdered?”

(dying laughing here Mugz)

Comment by Muggy
2011-12-27 19:17:17

Hey RAL, I’m glad I could crack you up! You have to “embrace the crazy” here in Florida.

FWIW, my DE creds are moving along. I hope to have a full license by this summer — then I will start sending out resumes.

There are many reasons why I want to live in DE, so I hope it works out.

 
 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-12-27 18:57:19

“Any ideas on how to approach this woman about buying her house for $165k without getting murdered?”

Maybe let a RE agent present the offer for you? :-)

Comment by Ben Jones
2011-12-27 19:12:06

I’d contact the sellers agent directly, and cut out the buyers agent commission. It’s gonna be a short sale, so the lady won’t care. But you know short sales have all sorts of problems. If there are multiple liens, it’s probably better for it to go through a foreclosure and wipe out as many liens as possible. Then you can probably get a clear title too.

 
 
Comment by jeff saturday
2011-12-27 19:21:44

“Any ideas on how to approach this woman about buying her house for $165k without getting murdered?”

Low-Bid-Body Armor

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For in-depth information, just keep reading

Do YOU Need Low-Bid Body Armor?
You’d be surprised who needs Low-Bid Body Armor…

FORGET ABOUT WHAT THE HOUSE IS WORTH. WHAT IS YOUR LIFE WORTH? What is it worth to know that you can survive even a SUBPIRIME criminal offer? Consider that Deadbeats prefer to strike when circumstances put you in the most vulnerable position. You are at a double disadvantage:

When you are attempting a low offer it may very well be at the time and place chosen by a dangerous Deadbeat – to maximize their advantage.

Even worse, low-bidding citizens and police operate under strict ethical and legal constraints to using deadly force. While morally correct, tactically this puts you at a huge disadvantage.
By criminal design and legal constraints, you are often forced to make your insulting offer in the home of the dangerous Deadbeat who may have not made a mortgage payment in over 3 years.

We put the odds back in YOUR favor.

Tactically and psychologically, Low-Bid Body Armor gives you a huge advantage, because you know your armour can give you a chance to make that insulting offer and live to bid another day.

 
 
Comment by Muggy
2011-12-27 17:31:00

Also, went to Town Hall and it’s obvious they get these all the time: I walked in and said, “I live next to an abandoned property that’s become a nuisance…” and before I could finish the clerk was laying the clipboard and complaint form in my hands.

We’ll see. I marked the calendar. I’ll go back in 30 days.

 
Comment by Muggy
2011-12-27 17:38:56

Ben, another thing occurred to me today as I was driving around my the wifey, checking out neighborhoods. You mentioned the other day that the backlog is as much as 60 years in some places, but that the people that ultimately own these won’t want to wait that long.

But then it hit me, thinking about the house I reported today, the bank is whole. They were made whole. What if the shadow inventory, or at least a substantial portion of it, exists in ledger purgatory?

Recall that my neighboring house is obviously abandoned, and the bank has to be behind the occasional maintenance guys, but no action or movement forward.

Help me understand, is this type of house eventually going to make its way to the county courthouse for back taxes? If that’s the case, I think that’s when TSHTF.

I think people should until the sticky short sales clear, and then municipalities start to clear unsold properties — that is when true price discovery will occur.

My wife asks great clarifying questions, but I’m starting to run out of answers.

Comment by Ben Jones
2011-12-27 18:10:19

All I can say is what I’ve observed. When I first started working with foreclosures I’d see many that had sat for 2 or 3 years before being foreclosed. I’d take care of them for a year and they’d get listed. Now the time frame is shorter for everything; foreclosure, to the MLS and sold. These lenders know they are paying taxes, maintenance and losing value with time. So although they do limit what comes on the market, they aren’t one entity doing that. They are competing for buyers. I’ve heard in some places like Ohio the lenders walk away from the taxes and everything. But I doubt that happens very often in Florida.

Comment by Muggy
2011-12-27 18:31:09

Thanks, I’m starting second-guess myself. I am sympathetic to sfrenter, dude, and others that are on the fence or have jumped.

There are homes in areas that we’d live that are about the same as renting, sometimes less. In Florida, we still have the governor/insurance wildcard, which is attached to political instability.

For me, the shadow inventory is the biggie. I can only go by my own observations, and my street tells me we are still only in the 3rd/4th inning.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2011-12-27 19:02:34

“There are homes in areas that we’d live that are about the same as renting, sometimes less.”

In areas where this is true, I can see the appeal of buying.

Anyone who is not an owner is going to become more motivated under those conditions. And each person that chooses to purchase will help support prices (e.g. easing future declines), but also reducing pressure on the rental pool (because there is now one fewer renter) and thus putting downward pressure on rents.

So you may see price declines slow, and rents slow or decline as well.

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Comment by seen it all
2011-12-27 18:42:39

Again, they can’t even get on their own parties ballot. Now that’s funny! He’s about to win the first primary, fair and square. Maybe you “real Republicans” aren’t representative of the party after all.

Too funny!
I haven’t heard any pundits opine that the process for qualification on the ballot is too onerous- it’s the candidates who don’t have the “people on the ground.”

 
Comment by seen it all
2011-12-27 19:56:52

I don’t believe that I ‘ve ever heard this one:

If you want government to intervene domestically, you’re a liberal. If you want government to intervene overseas, you’re a conservative. If you want government to intervene everywhere, you’re a moderate. If you don’t want government to intervene anywhere, you’re an extremist.

 
Comment by seen it all
2011-12-27 20:01:25

Are the Koch brothers bankrolling Ron Paul’s campaign?
Anyone know?

Comment by Bill in Phoenix and Tampa
2011-12-27 23:42:48

Whether not the Koch brothers fund Ron Paul, what does it matter? I researched Ron Paul’s voting record over the years and concluded no one has been more consistent than him. Penny Pritzker and siblings are limousine socialists who banked Obama. Did you look up Obama’s political votes prior to November 2008?And how about McSame’s?

 
 
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