Bits Bucket for January 19, 2012
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Looks like North County San Diego is encouraging the H1-B train to make a stop in their town. Check out the latest idea to fill those McMansions:
$1600 / 3000ft² - Rebate $$ ShareProgram 2012 “House of Bangalore” by SONY (Rancho Bernardo ) (map)
Date: 2012-01-18, 10:29PM PST
Reply to: hous-5wfdt-2789790903@craigslist.org [Errors when replying to ads?]
Get $$$ Rebates $$$ when you Stay 85 to 90 days with Us..
As Simple as: Bed, Shower Keep it CLEAN, Go to Office, and Again Bed, Shower Keep it CLEAN, Go to Office
You Get Rebate up to $40 a Day on Rental Agreement. Void with any Other Offers or Negotiated Terms, Previously.
Welcome to 2012 “The Great House of Bangalore”
*******************************************
Taken from Wikipedia:
Bangalore English pronunciation: /ˈbæŋɡəlɔər, bæŋɡəˈlɔər/, also called Bengaluru (Kannada: ಬೆಂಗಳೂರು, Bengaḷūru ? [ˈbeŋɡəɭuːru] ( listen)) is the capital of the Indian state of Karnataka. Bangalore is nicknamed the Garden City and was once called a pensioner’s paradise.[6] Located on the Deccan Plateau in the south-eastern part of Karnataka, Bangalore is India’s third most populous city[7] and fifth-most populous urban agglomeration. Bangalore is well known as a hub for India’s information technology sector.
********************************
******************************
Rebate $$ Housing
Corporate Furnished Executive Ranch House on Private Country Club of StoneRidge, 4 bedrooms 2 Bath 2 car +Golf Cart Garage , One story
By Week ,Monthly or Quarterly.
No SMOKING No Alcohol
No Loud Talking
Contact Info as below:
Hi I manage a Corporate housing in San Diego,
for travelers high Technology Temp. Travelers from INDIA
If interested to SHARE a Large Corporate house, and Get Rebate $$$ at Departure Time.
in a Well known Neighborhood, & on Golf Country Club,
Please let me know. (Requires 30 days Rental Contract)or (85-90 Days Rental Contract)
Each room at: (2 available)
$1,600. + $200 fare/share Utility
Master Corporate Suit with Office: (1 available)
$2600. + $400 Minimum fare share of Utility
90 days contract
First Month + Last Month + Deposit + Furniture Deposit
Shawn Mass CA DRE 01340389
858-775-3800
They must be desperate and/or greedy. I know the area well, and whether the 2,600 for a room is per month (outrageous) or 90 days, it is still waaaaay overpriced.
I’m still working on the home situation, but I thought I’d post an update since my bubble situation just went plaid (a la Spaceballs):
- My realtor *finally* understands my price range. The solution? He starts sending me 2br. listings.
- My wasteoid brother-in-law spends a good 5 minutes at my son’s birthday party about why he should inherit the beach house. He recently quit his landscaping job because “it sucks.” He figures he only needs about $30k after taxes to pay the insurance and taxes. LMFAO. I told my wife that if she ever gave him money…
- My wife’s cousin’s family (super-awesome extra special Christian hellfire judgment is coming types), who have been driving a shiny new Toyota Sienna for about three months have, wait for it… Jeff here it comes… not been paying their mortgage for about 6 months. WAIT FOR IT… NO REALLY… IT GETS BETTER: they’re shopping for raw land so “they can start all over and build new.”
- THEN, mother-in-law shows up and starts poking around $2.3MM gulf-front motel, saying, “this could be interesting.”
“…(super-awesome extra special Christian hellfire judgment is coming types)…”
Sounds like a hoot!
Speaking of which, the Washington Post reports: New tally puts Romney’s Iowa win in question
“Certified totals show Santorum with a 34 vote lead over Romney.”
Soaring to victory on eagle’s wings! Please join Senator Santorum live at 7am ET tomorrow on C-Span’s Washington Journal call in program with your questions and comments.
Let Freedom Ring!
Add Perry’s dropping out and the revelation that Gingrich asked his ex-wife for an open marriage and it’s gonna be Santorum all the way!
Agreed — looks like it will soon narrow to Romney vrs Santorum. My guess is Newt will not appeal much to about half the voters, namely the female voters. My wife says she cannot stand him every time she hears his voice on the radio (NPR, of course
).
If the Rapture is imminent, why buy land?
Yeah, I guess one keep in mind how long you expect to be here on earth when doing your buy/rent calculation. Just another case of the cognitive dissonance engaged in by many religious people. “God made it snow last Tuesday so I wouldn’t have to hand in my geography homework. The weatherman says that it’s supposed to snow next Tuesday too.” There are three possibilities: either it snow because it’s God’s plan, so weather men are pointless, it snowed because of a Canadian cold front that has nothing to do with your geography homework, or God is lying to us by making it appear to be due to a cold front while in reality having a secret plan.
People SAY that the believe that it’s all an ineffible plan, but then they BEHAVE as if the world behave in a naturalistic manner that meteorology, medicine, and other sciences have useful things to say about the universe. For the most part, they may pray, but they get the surgery.
At least the Seventh Day Adventists stopped trying to calculate the day the world ends. Of course, there are plenty of Fundies who still try.
Of course, Jesus warns his followers that no one knows the day of the second coming. I once challenged a fundy with that, and his reply was that admonition does not apply to the elect. I guess they have a different definition of “no one” than I do. Oh well.
We can all appreciate the value of family ties.
So who exactly do they think will be willing to lend them money after they’ve stiffed the last people who lent to them? Look I’m in favor of the horribly upside down and insolvent throwing in the towell. In general business treat bankruptcy as a rational business decision, not a moral issue, so individuals should probably do the same. But when you start over after shafting those who have lent you money, you’ve got to be ready to live on a cash, not credit basis.
This reminds me of the classic conversation from REPO MAN:
Bud: Credit is a sacred trust, it’s what our free society is founded on. Do you think they give a damn about their bills in Russia? I said, do you think they give a damn about their bills in Russia?
Otto: They don’t pay bills in Russia, it’s all free.
Bud: All free? Free my ass. What are you, a fuckin’ commie? Huh?
Otto: No, I ain’t no commie.
Bud: Well, you better not be. I don’t want no commies in my car. No Christians either.
Loved that movie.
(super-awesome extra special Christian hellfire judgment is coming types)
Do they like President Obama?
Now you’re just being cruel
It is my understanding that fundies support Israel, not because they like Jews, but because they believe the Israel’s return as a sovereign state will lead to the second coming. Maybe they hope that Obama is the anti-Christ, whose presence will hasten the second coming.
More “necessary antecedent to” than “lead to” but their favored policies come out the same. There are also some people breeding red cattle in Israel for the same reason. Is that also in the New Testament?
“…they hope Obama is the Anti-Christ…..”
Hope? You must not be getting the same e-mails from your fundie friends that I’m seeing.
To them, Obama = Anti-Christ
is a given.
In that case, the Rapture is imminent
What will they do once he leaves office without taking over the world? Say something like: “Oops!”
BTW, for those who might be wondering, the “Rapture” is a doctrine that originated in the US in fundy churches about 100 years ago. Prior to that no one had ever heard of such a thing. The Reformers (Luther, Calvin, Zwingli, etc.) never spoke of the “Rapture”. And it certain not embraced by the Catholic, Orthodox, Coptic or any of the other ancient churches.
- My wasteoid brother-in-law spends a good 5 minutes at my son’s birthday party about why he should inherit the beach house.”
because he likes the ocean ?
My parents put in their will that thier house must be sold upon their death.
why ? I don’t know maybe dead bodies buried in backyard ?
My parents put in their will that thier house must be sold upon their death.
I wonder whether that is actually legally binding on the executor, or not… As long as the proceeds are disbursed according to their wishes, what would stop one of the recipients to be the “buyer” and the others to accept their share as owner-financing?
Parents who don’t want kids fighting over the house’s value put clauses like that in wills all the time. If you sell it, then its value is absolutely clear and the kids can’t fight over whether it was fair for Jane to buy out Jack’s and Joe’s “shares” for $100K. Lawyer’s recommend clauses like that fairly regularly. I think they are enforceable. Though I don’t suppose there is any reason why one of the siblings couldn’t be the buyer, the fact that the house has to be sold means that the other sibs would have a right to cash, not a note from the purchasing sib.
Even from your sibling, would you willingly accept a long term note over cash?
“Although there are some signs that housing may be improving — new home starts are increasing nationally, for instance, and builder confidence ticked up for the fourth consecutive month in January — many hurdles remain.”
All real estate is local — especially in California. It’s great to learn investors have stepped up to catch themselves falling knives before SoCal prices have bottomed out.
California home sales rise in December; median price falls again
By Alejandro Lazo
January 18, 2012, 1:17 p.m.
Home sales in the Golden State rose slightly in December, boosted by a pickup in the Bay Area and investor activity in Southern California. But with foreclosures and other low-cost homes dominating the market, the median home price for the state ticked down.
Sales rose 4.2% from the same month a year earlier. A total of 37,734 homes were bought throughout the state in December with more than half purchased in Southern California, according to DataQuick, a residential real estate information firm based in San Diego.
The median price for the state fell 3.1% to $246,000 compared with the same month a year earlier. That made for the 15th consecutive decline.
The December data cap a year in which home prices and sales stagnated with a troubled economy and a high unemployment rate. Although there are some signs that housing may be improving — new home starts are increasing nationally, for instance, and builder confidence ticked up for the fourth consecutive month in January — many hurdles remain.
A weak job market and a shortage of buyers able to meet today’s tough credit standards set by lenders are chief among those challenges.
“The spectacular gains in affordability, based on the combination of lower prices and ultra-low interest rates, was largely theoretical for many people because it was so hard to get a mortgage,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president. “That, combined with negative equity and economic uncertainty, kept people away.”
…
“The spectacular gains in affordability”
What is John Walsh, DataQuick president smoking.
Housing prices in So Ca are still way overpriced in
relationship to incomes.
Hard to get a mortgage, my arse. It became prudent
to have underwriting standards again. Oh, cry me a
river.
The amazing thing to me is that it’s not like we went back to 1950’s or 1970’s underwriting standards. More like 1990’s underwriting standards and some people act as if the banks have never been more reluctant to lend.
I have not heard of anyone having trouble getting a home loan.
“The spectacular gains in affordability”
Rapid but far from complete decrease in unaffordability?
That phrase definite made me wonder if they really expect there to be a return to the days of unaffordability.
Hey, my brother in law completed his home purchase in southern CA in December. Actually, it’s a transfer purchase of a house from his mother (in order to retain the prop 13 tax rate), but she still made him pay like $330k for it. Now he’s ready to remodel!
The hitch: he has been working for only about 3 years at a superfund clean up sites in Northern CA (5-6 days a week!) after being on disability the previous 5 years, and was basically working under the table (something to do with union membership) 2 of the past 3.
He’s also got a daughter as a freshman in college and another about to graduate. With a scenario like that, one can only predict that home purchase will work out great.
For just a little less than that ($309,000) you could buy a one bedroom (with den) condo in Falls Church VA. They claim to be the cheapest new condos inside the beltway. And they might even be a very long walk from a Metro Station (ad says it is near two of them which usually means not really an easy walk to either one).
Was it owner-financed due to his work history, or did he actually manage to get a mortgage?
He actually managed to get a mortage. Times they have changed (not!)
“With a scenario like that, one can only predict that home purchase will work out great.”
And will he end up blaming his mother? (”She should have known I couldn’t afford this!)
Property values stable in Palm Beach County, but bills leave tax revenue uncertain
By Jennifer Sorentrue
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Palm Beach County Property Appraiser Gary Nikolits is warning the countywide tax base could drop by as much as 2 percent if a proposal to use foreclosures and short sales to assign property values wins approval from state lawmakers.
Early estimates show that the “best case scenario” would hold the countywide taxable value of property flat from the start of 2011 to the start of 2012, Nikolits said Wednesday.
But two pending bills (HB251 and SB928) in Tallahassee could force Nikolits and other property appraisers around the state to include nearby foreclosures, short sales, and property sold at auction when calculating a property’s market value. If approved, the retroactive change would cause last year’s taxable value to drop by about 2 percent, Nikolits estimated.
Property appraisers currently are only allowed to consider foreclosures and short sales if the sale amount is in line with other property transactions in the area, Nikolits said. Since foreclosures and short sales typically sell for less than property that is not in distress, Nikolits said, the legislation could lead to a drop in home values.
“We would have to use them as long as we didn’t have justification to exclude them,” Nikolits said. “That could drive down the prices in the neighborhood.”
The county collected $595 million in property tax revenue this budget year. If the bills win approval from state leaders, that collection would fall by $12 million next year, assuming county commissioners keep the tax rate flat.
In the northern part of the county, officials said that while some capital projects, such as road improvements, may be delayed, no more layoffs are expected.
“A two percent drop, compared to what we’ve had in the last few years, is not that bad,” Palm Beach Gardens Mayor David Levy said.
“Over the last three to four years, it appears the rate of decline has been slowing,” Greenacres City Manager Wadie Atallah said, referring to property values.
Nikolits said the declining commercial property market would likely account for much of the decline last year.
The taxable value of residential properties has stabilized largely because of the state’s recapture rule, which has frustrated many homeowners in a slumping real estate market. Under the recapture rule, even if a homesteaded property’s market value decreases, the property’s assessed value, which helps determine property taxes, must increase as long as the assessed value remains below the market value.
For many homeowners who bought before the housing boom, their assessed values have not yet risen to market value, meaning their taxes have continued to climb even in a declining market.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/real-estate/property-values-stable-in-palm-beach-county-but-2109667.html -
“But two pending bills (HB251 and SB928) in Tallahassee could force Nikolits and other property appraisers around the state to include nearby foreclosures, short sales, and property sold at auction when calculating a property’s market value.”
That`s goona leave a mark.
Judging from the look on Merkel’s face, I wonder about the prediction that Germany will avoid a near-term recession, especially if the prediction is predicated on a rapid solution to the eurozone debt crisis.
Germany cuts 2012 growth forecasts as eurozone crisis bites
The impact of the debt crisis on Europe’s largest economy was underlined as Germany slashed its 2012 growth forecasts but insisted it would avoid recession.
The German economy likely shrank by 0.3pc in the fourth quarter of 2011, but expected growth of 0.1pc in the first three months of 2012, escaping a technical recession. Photo: REUTERS
By Angela Monaghan, Economics Correspondent
5:45AM GMT 19 Jan 2012
Berlin said growth this year was likely to be 0.7pc, lower than a previous estimate of 1pc, before rebounding in 2013 to 1.6pc.
Philipp Roesler, Germany’s economics minister, insisted “there can be no talk of recession.”
He said the German economy likely shrank by 0.3pc in the fourth quarter of 2011, but expected growth of 0.1pc in the first three months of 2012, thereby escaping a technical recession of two successive quarters of negative growth.
“Germany is and remains an anchor for stability and growth in Europe. After two extraordinarily strong growth years, the German economy is still in robust form. However, due to a difficult external environment, we are expecting a temporary dip in growth in the first half of the year,” he said.
Mr Roesler conceded the forecasts were based on the assumption of a relaxation of market tensions and a rapid solution to the eurozone debt crisis. He said “without doubt” the main risk to the projection was a worsening of the crisis.
…
“Germany’s economics minister, insisted “there can be no talk of recession”
HAha!
I see nothing, Colonel Hogan, NOTHING!
I find it amazing how they just assume the conclusion.
Who is paying CNBC to lure suckers into teh housing market?
Today, every commercial break, they are running promos for tomorrow’s show….
“With housing at rock bottom, is now the time to buy? Stratigic investing, rent vs. buy, tune in all day tomorrow for special guests and commentary from our panel of experts.”
CNBC does not do specials unless someone is paying for it. So, who is paying for it?
No FB dollar shall be allowed to escape.
If a dollar belongs to someone who is not yet a FB then all stops need to be pulled out so as to convince him to become one.
“When rates move up, you’ll see those folks get off the fence.”
Yes I would love to pay a high interest rate on an artificially inlated house price. Where do I sign?
2 days ago ..
5 housing trends in winter 2012
By Polyana da Costa • Bankrate.com
These times won’t last forever 1 of 6
Thinking of buying a home? Don’t take too long. There is no question this is still a buyers’ market, but you’ll find with a wave of investors in search of good deals, the bargain homes are selling at a much quicker pace. The low prices and low mortgage rates won’t disappear overnight, but they won’t last forever.
“This is one of those times that, 10 years from now, people are going to look back and say, ‘If I only had made the decision,’” says Shaun White, a vice president for the RE/MAX real estate network.
And for those who have been waiting to refinance their mortgages but couldn’t because their home values have tumbled, your chance to take advantage of historically low rates should be here soon — if all goes as planned.
Here are some of the housing and mortgage trends you can expect to see in the first quarter of
Home prices begin to stabilize 2 of 6
If you have been waiting for the market to reach bottom to buy a house, the wait is over in many parts of the country.
“I think we’ve bottomed out,” says Steve Anderson, a broker and owner at RE/MAX Benchmark Realty in Las Vegas. “If anyone wanted to buy a home today, now would be the time.”
HARP could lead to refi surge 3 of 6
Mortgage rates likely to remain low 4 of 6
Investors, foreign buyers flock to the market 5 of 6
Foreclosures and short sales moving quickly 6 of 6
http://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/5-housing-trends-winter-2012.aspx - 75k
“So who is paying for it?”
Keep in mind that there are a LOT of people and institutions from the Fed on down that have a GREAT INTEREST in keeping RE prices up so as to protect the collateral that backs trillions of dollars of loans.
So, who is paying for it? Collectively it’s the PTB that is paying for it.
President Speedo is taking good care of them too.
Remember those pictures of Obama body surfing in Hawaii? Hate to break the news to everyone, but he has a bit of a spare tire. Or we could be nicer and call ‘em love handles.
Whatever waistline terminology works for you, but I don’t think he’ll be sporting Speedos anytime soon.
I would much rather see Michele Bachmann in a bikini.
See Ben’s post today.
CNBC does not do specials unless someone is paying for it.
Well, they have done specials on the marijuana and prostitution industries. Not sure who paid for them, ( Soros?), but they seemed to have the usual advertisers.
“With housing at rock bottom, is now the time to buy? Stratigic investing, rent vs. buy, tune in all day tomorrow for special guests and commentary from our panel of experts.”
CNBC does not do specials unless someone is paying for it. So, who is paying for it?
Lemme guess: The MBA. And the NAR.
Can other HBB posters recall when “Too Big to Fail” and “moral hazard” were only discussed here, not in the MSM?
BUSINESS WORLD
JANUARY 17, 2012, 6:40 P.M. ET
The Meltdown Remains a Whodunit
The housing bust is well understood; the global financial panic isn’t.
By HOLMAN W. JENKINS, JR.
If not for hindsight bias, financial pundits would have no shtick at all. Happily, the world is a conveyor belt delivering surprising events that we can criticize others for not foreseeing. Lately our profession has been feasting on newly released Federal Reserve minutes from 2006, which reveal Ben Bernanke’s hair barely smoldering over the end of the housing bubble: “I think it would take a very strong decline in the housing market to substantially derail the strong momentum for growth that we are currently seeing in the economy.”
Tim Geithner, then head of the New York Fed, opined that “financial market data” gave off no sign of trouble. Kevin Warsh, a fellow Fed governor, agreed: “Capital markets are probably more profitable and more robust . . . than they have perhaps ever been.”
What idiots. And yet they were right. Jobs, consumption and stock prices were holding up smartly despite the well-recognized turn in housing markets. Then came the financial panic. Did the housing bubble cause the panic—or was the panic somehow separate, making everything worse, including the housing crunch? Good question.
Gratifying, then, is the attention showered on a recent book by Jeffrey Friedman and Wladimir Kraus, “Engineering the Financial Crisis.” Their work is refreshing for many reasons: It does not assume the housing bubble is the whole story. It allows that honest ignorance (especially about the interaction of complex regulations) might explain the behavior of bankers and regulators. It asks especially interesting questions about the triple-A mortgage derivatives at the heart of the financial meltdown.
Whether these securities ever deserved their triple-A ratings is, of course, a debatable proposition. But what’s certainly true is that these “structured products” were structured to protect investors’ cash flow even in the face of a considerable rise in mortgage defaults. From many accounts, including the Fed’s, which ended up owning a bunch of them, the securities have largely performed as advertised.
Yet when the panic hit, it was the presence of these assets on bank balance sheets that fomented a global loss of trust in banks. Why?
And why did so many banks load up on these assets in the first place? Blaming “greedy, reckless” bankers, the authors say, is a stretch because banks’ housing assets were in fact heavily tilted toward the safest. Citibank was entitled, for capital purposes, to treat higher-yielding triple-A and double-A private mortgage securities the same as Fannie- and Freddie-issued securities. Yet Citi held a lot more Fannie and Freddie than it did the private securities.
The future is unknowable. Capitalists will make mistakes. But why the same mistake? Here the authors blame the homogenizing effect of the Basel banking regulations spawned in 1988, ironically to address the same fears of “moral hazard” and Too Big to Fail on every lip today.
…
“Did the housing bubble cause the panic—or was the panic somehow separate, making everything worse, including the housing crunch?”
I spoke to someone in finance about the housing bubble way back in perhaps 2005. I said that based on the metrics that had always been in place, housing prices were 50 percent too high nationally (far more in some prices) and would thus fall by one-third wiping out $5 trillion in wealth (actual decline thus far, some say, $7 trillion).
She said if that happened every bank in the U.S. would be insolvent. Something I remembered in 2008 when it seemed as if that was exactly what was happening.
“…every bank in the U.S. would be insolvent.”
How did her prediction pan out?
Ya know how sometimes you can be right about something but it doesn’t matter?
Impossible to tell how it panned out. They changed the accounting rules.
One could argue that having to change the accounting rules pretty much shows how it panned out.
“This is the strongest global economy I’ve seen in my business lifetime” — Henry Paulson, 2007
“Hank Paulson is the biggest crook I’ve seen in my business lifetime” -Realtors Are Liars®, 2012
Henry Paulson’s net worth is $700+ million.
“Even if I fall I land on a bunch of money” — Jay Z, 2007
Given life’s vicissitudes, that’s a pretty fair assumption….
Henry said this after
1. Taking the treasury secretary job so he could cash out of GS at the top tax free saving him 200 million dollars.
2. and after putting most of this money in treasuries.
Again, show me investment portfolios and I will tell you who knew what and who was lying to the public.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2006/07/05/is-cheney-betting-on-economic-collapse/
what a hairbrained article.
Tell you what, Montana, I’ll invest in short-term municipal bonds, a tax-exempt money market fund, an inflation protected securities fund, and a European bond fund, and you can invest in the USD, and we’ll see who comes out on top in the next couple of years….
Historically, lenders were very tight with their cash. Recently, inexplicably, they started making loans with questionable chances of being repaid. Answer why they would do such a thing and it’s like sitting in the chair at the optometrist, looking at the eye chart, and the optometrist flips down the correct lens for you eye. Everything becomes clear.
i saw this a few days ago but it merits further study.
it’s a neat chart of the Dow Jones going back over 100 years
Tanks!
Alls Wells that ends Wells!
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe.
H. G. Wells
Adapt or perish, now as ever, is nature’s inexorable imperative.
H. G. Wells
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-19/finland-derides-crisis-as-excuse-for-eroding-sovereignty.html
Finally, an EU member (Finland) is starting to push back against supra-national bodies like the EU and ECB that demand the ever-increasing erosion of sovereignty and endless transfer of wealth from the responsible to the reckless and corrupt.
“endless transfer of wealth from ”
From those with fossil fuels, mineral deposits and dammable rivers to the countries that are little more than lifted up coral reefs with few natural resources of their own.
It is not by accident nor variation in moral fiber or work ethic that makes Germany and Austria the main exporters and Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Greece the main importers.
It is geography and resource distribution.
But it’s fun to watch the vehemently anti-socialist libertarian right try to absorb socialist Germany into its pantheon of ‘hard-working rugged individualist’ victims of deadbeats.
It’s time to order more labels for your label maker.
Me thinks you might be running low.
No, I’ve got plenty more. I’ll label your post ‘ad hominem’.
LOL! Good one, Alpha. And yes, the Germans are socialists, and it doesn’t require a Dymo label maker for that to be true.
Well, they are comparatively speaking of course. In Canada for example, to hear some people talk, our PM is a troglodyte neo-con Bush-puppet war-mongering tyrant who is going to destroy medicare, the CBC, and our pensions and sell off our land, oil and water to the evill Amerikuns. (oh yes, ban same-sex marriage, outlaw abortion, and make us all go to church every day). In realty he’s been governing, even with his majority, cautiously and making incremental changes. Compared to the US, he is somewhere to the right of the Dems.
Well, they are comparatively speaking of course.
Do they have national health? Yes.
Free higher ed? Yes (Ok , in 5 states there are “fees”, but in the other 11 it is completelty free).
Social Security? Yes, since 1889 and it’s more generous than our system.
Workers have rights that American workers do not: Mandatory paid time off, mandatory severance pay, etc. (not surprising as Americans have some of the least protective labor laws in the world).
The unemployment benefit is 67% of the lost income.
Sounds pretty socialist to me. Of course, compared to the USA, pretty much everyone else is “socialist”
Of course, compared to the USA, pretty much everyone else is “socialist”
Not Singapore! They’re so free market they’ll cane you for chewing gum.
“America has some of the least protective labor laws”?
You have to be kidding, right? You don’t really believe what you just said? How far outside of the western world have you been?
These days, even the Dems are right of the Dems.
“Compared to the US, he is somewhere to the right of the Dems.”
This is obviously a very subjective thing, but my guess is that he considers as a given, left leaning policies that the Democrats in the US wouldn’t dare suggest.
Canada vs the US on left leaning policies…..
“Do they have national health? Yes.”
Nope. We have single payer insurance in each province. Service is from private providers many of which are non-profits (hospitals). Some guideline are set out at the federal level.
Does the US provide government medical care/insurance for some? yes
Does the US have hospitals that provide treatment for those who cannot affort to pay? yes
“Free higher ed? Yes (Ok , in 5 states there are “fees”, but in the other 11 it is completelty free).”
If by higher ed you mean college/university, then no. Tuition is lower than in the US due to government subsidies, but it’s far from free. I’m not aware of any institutions that don’t charge tuition. BTW, they’re called provinces.
Do Canada and the US both have government sponsored public schools through highschool age? yes
“Social Security? Yes, since 1889 and it’s more generous than our system.”
Do Canada and the US both have social security? yes
“Workers have rights that American workers do not: Mandatory paid time off, mandatory severance pay, etc. (not surprising as Americans have some of the least protective labor laws in the world).”
“Mandatory paid time off,” depends what you mean. Unpaid vacation time is common, but stat holidays are paid out.
“Mandatory severance pay,”
not always as it varies by Province. Yes for Alberta, but For ontario:
“If you have been continuously employed for three months or more, and your employer “lets you go”, your employer usually has to provide either written notice of termination or termination pay.”
For the US:
“The Employee Benefits Security Administration (EBSA) may be able to assist an employee who did not receive severance benefits under their employer-sponsored plan.”
“The unemployment benefit is 67% of the lost income.”
From service canada:
“However, we can tell you that the basic rate for calculating EI benefits is 55% of your average insurable weekly earnings. As of January 1, 2012, the maximum insurable earnings amount is $45,900. This means that you can receive a maximum amount of $485 per week.” Max is 45 weeks instead of 99.
Do Canada and the US both have EI and welfare systems? yes
Does Canada have foodstamps? No
The similarities by far outweigh the differences.
You have to be kidding, right? You don’t really believe what you just said? How far outside of the western world have you been?
I’m not kidding. Have you ever lived outside the US? I have. Our worker protections SUCK. Things that workers in other countries take for granted, such as paid vacations, paid holidays, severance pay, etc. are not mandatory in the USA.
Anyway, here is a little anecdote to illustrate my point:
My brother works for a large multinational, and its in the process of a major RIF. The company has about a 50/50 distribution of employees in US and Europe. Guess where the brunt of layoffs are going to be? Yes, they will be in the USA, because its easier and cheaper to fire people in the USA.
“The Employee Benefits Security Administration (EBSA) may be able to assist an employee who did not receive severance benefits under their employer-sponsored plan.”
And those “employed sponsored plans” are 100% voluntary in the USA. They are NOT mandatory. They are mostly offered by the Fortune 500 and you only get them if you sign a waiver were you promise to not sue for wrongful termination. If you refuse to sign away your rights you get bupkus.
That said, I would expect Canada to be more like the US than Europe.
Does Canada have foodstamps? No
According to wikipedia:
“All provinces maintain a program of this sort known by names such as “social assistance”, “income support”, “income assistance” and “welfare assistance”; popularly they are known as welfare.[3] The purpose of these programs is to alleviate extreme poverty by providing a monthly payment to people with little or no income. ”
So maybe you guys don’t get EBT cards, but there is most certain “welfare”.
Not Singapore! They’re so free market they’ll cane you for chewing gum.
Even fascist Singapore has socialized health care (Medisave).
Nope. We have single payer insurance in each province.
It’s still socialized health care, don’t be disingenous.
Does the US have hospitals that provide treatment for those who cannot affort to pay? yes
Not really. There is a program called Medicaid for the very indigent, but not all health care providers will accept Medicaid because it remiburses them at “below market rates”.
But there are no “hospitals” that treat the poor regardless of ability to pay. What you are probably thinking of is the Emergency Room, which won’t turn you away if you can’t pay. And they will come after you if they think you can pay.
In Colorado,
While severance can be part of a contract, even if it’s not there is EBSA which is the point. And as I mentioned, both nations do have welfare.
I don’t mind the term socialized health care, but it’s not “national health care”. Not trying to be disingenous, just accurate. National health care creates the impression that there are a bunch of doctors, etc as public servants. The US medicare and medicaid systems are very similar to the Canadian provincial systems.
Canadians collectively may have an attitude that is more left leaning than the US, but the practices are remarkably similar.
Let me say this very clearly…
…VERY few people get severance in this country and most certainly NOT EVER for those in the $500 a week or less crowd, which is half the workforce.
Out of those, very few actually get Un-enjoyment. Millions don’t qualify for UEI due to working part time or not enough time on the job.
While severance can be part of a contract
And good luck getting an employment contract if you aren’t an executive (or in a union).
Anyway, my point was that in most countries if you lay someone off, you HAVE to give them severance pay, and the size of the payoff is often tied to years of service. It is NOT an option.
When I lived in Mexico (as a kid) my dad was let go from the company he worked for (he wasn’t an executive). He received almost a 6 MONTHS salary as severance, as it was stipulated by Mexican Law. Paid vacations, paid holidays, profit sharing, and year end bonuses are also stipulated as MANDATORY by Mexican labor law. Mexico also has socialized health care. It isn’t great, but its better than nothing.
I hear that socialists are very generous, until they have to pay the bill themselves.
Funny how socialist Germany is a manufacturing and export powerhouse while we import to the tine of an 800B trade deficit. Oh, and we run MUCH bigger budget deficits than they do and all we get for it is a monster military machine, one that can now detain us indefinitely without a trial.
Nice Slogan but
Take a look at the debt to GDP ratio of Germany, France, and even Spain, You can also look at well all of Northern Europe. Then look at the US. Plenty of socialist countries doing better than we are in paying the bills.
Heck I’d be happy if the top 400 families and guys like Romney paid the same effective tax rate that I do. We have a regressive tax system which is just part of the huge wealth inequality in this country. But you keep up the good work.
Not Singapore! They’re so free market they’ll cane you for chewing gum.
Even fascist Singapore has socialized health care (Medisave).
Even fascist Singapore has socialized health care
Well, yeah, they’re not insane.
And they don’t cane you for chewing gum any more either. Just spitting it on the sidewalks.
The ECB’s Ron Paul.
I get about 10 of these alerts each day with a mix of BACK ON MARKET, NEW and PRICE REDUCED. The county records usually tell the same old story.
Sent By:
“Homepath.com Alerts” On: Jan 01/18/12 6:14 PM
There are new properties that match your search criteria.
15567 74TH AVE N
PALM BEACH GARDENS, FL 33418
PRICE REDUCED
List price:
$339,550
———————————————————————————-
Location Address: 15567 74TH AVE N
Municipality: UNINCORPORATED
Owner Information
Name: SUNTRUST MRTG INC
Mailing Address: PO BOX 27767
RICHMOND VA 23261 7767
Sales information
Sep-2011 24749/0099 $232,000 CERT OF TITLE SUNTRUST MRTG INC
Dec-2002 14838/1966 $0 WARRANTY DEED ISELI ROBERT N JR &
Type: D
Date/Time: 1/2/2003 09:01:25
CFN: 20030000252
Book Type: O
Book/Page: 14611/1502
Pages: 2
Consideration: $355,000.00
Party 1: GANONG DAWSON
GANONG MARLENA J
Party 2: ISELL ROBERT N JR
ISELL DONNA M
Legal: 16 41 42 POR ACRE
Type: MTG
Date/Time: 9/17/2003 09:23:50
CFN: 20030553524
Book Type: O
Book/Page: 15856/1930
Pages: 9
Consideration: $58,800.00
Party 1: ISELI ROBERT N JR
ISELI DONNA M JR
Party 2: BANK OF AMERICA NA
Legal: 16 41 42 POR ACRE
Type: MTG
Date/Time: 6/10/2005 10:35:16
CFN: 20050358068
Book Type: O
Book/Page: 18725/945
Pages: 9
Consideration: $150,000.00
Party 1: ISELI ROBERT N JR
ISELI DONNA
Party 2: BANK OF AMERICA NA
Legal: 16 41 42 POR ACRE
Type: MTG
Date/Time: 1/18/2007 16:46:31
CFN: 20070029119
Book Type: O
Book/Page: 21319/1541
Pages: 8
Consideration: $409,600.00
Party 1: ISELI ROBERT N JR
ISELI DONNA M
Party 2: MORTGAGE ELECTRONIC REGISTRATION SYSTEMS INC
GROUP ONE MORTGAGE INC
Legal: 16 41 42 POR ACRE
Type: MTG
Date/Time: 2/26/2007 16:23:02
CFN: 20070095497
Book Type: O
Book/Page: 21451/163
Pages: 6
Consideration: $199,000.00
Party 1: ISELI DONNA M
ISELI ROBERT N
Party 2: NATIONAL CITY BANK
Legal: 16 41 42 POR ACRE
Type: LP
Date/Time: 11/6/2009 10:11:15
CFN: 20090390245
Book Type: O
Book/Page: 23534/1795
Pages: 1
Consideration: $0.00
Party 1: SUNTRUST MORTGAGE INC
Party 2: ISELI DONNA M
NATIONAL CITY BANK
ISELI ROBERT N JR
Legal: 16 41 42 POR ACRE
Type: JUD
Date/Time: 9/9/2010 15:44:34
CFN: 20100339053
Book Type: O
Book/Page: 24066/1848
Pages: 4
Consideration: $0.00
Party 1: SUNTRUST MORTGAGE INC
Party 2: ISELI DONNA M
NATIONAL CITY BANK
ISELI ROBERT N JR
Legal: 16 41 42 POR ACRE
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/18/us-usa-housing-donovan-idUSTRE80H1LI20120118
US about to cut deal with banks that engaged in CRIMINAL fraud in originating and repossessing mortgages, by granting immunity for future lawsuits or charges in exchange for a piddling $25 billion in writedowns for FBs. Isn’t crony capitalism grand?
“$25 billion in writedowns for FBs”
That will take care of the county I live in but what is the rest of the country going to do?
25B is enough to buy 125,000 $200,000 houses, so your comment is probably not far off.
I wonder how much is the agregate number for all underwater mortgage liabilities? It must be in the trillions, the question is: how many trillions?
Beyond the economic issue is the rule of law issue. But in our banana republic few seem to be concerned about the perversion of justice.
Yup $25 billion for the whole country. that should do it.
March 17, 2011|By Paul Owers, Sun Sentinel
Practically everyone who bought South Florida homes in 2005 or 2006 wishes now they hadn’t.
Not since the Great Depression was there a worse time to buy.
After an historic run-up in home values that began in 2000, South Florida prices peaked in November 2005, a month after Hurricane Wilma hit the region. The median price in Broward County topped out at $391,100, according to the Florida Realtors. Palm Beach County’s median hit $421,500.
But the price increases were unsustainable, and demand soon collapsed. Borrowers started getting into trouble with risky mortgages and saw their monthly payments skyrocket, leading to a wave of foreclosures that sent prices plunging.
Broward’s median price is down 58 percent from the peak, while the Palm Beach County median has dropped 54 percent. Over the same time frame, condo prices in the two counties have fallen by nearly 70 percent.
More than half of all properties with a mortgage in Broward County — 51 percent, or 229,090 homes — were underwater in the fourth quarter, research firm CoreLogic said last week. In Palm Beach County, the problem affects 44 percent of homes with a mortgage, or 147,643 properties.
Homeowners who bought or refinanced in 2003, 2004 and 2007 also may be underwater, though not as far as those who bought or refinanced closer to the peak of the boom.
http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2011-03-17/features/fl-unlucky-2005-homes-20110316_1_underwater-borrowers-housing-frenzy-mortgage-payments - 45k -
I thought the problem was union goons and socialism????
Seriously. It’s the Lucky Duckies on food stamps who are destroying this country.
See also from today’s Washington Post: Out of work, nearly out of money, S.C. man says he’s ‘not looking for handout’
He wants a job that pays a living wage. The nerve!
Cane him!
I’ve been a longtime reader of HBB (since 2006) but rarely do I have much worthy of contribution—but I’ll pass on this anecdote from the housing market in Roanoke VA.
A year ago, and after the birth of our third child, we decided we had truly outgrown the 3 BR 1900SF 1940s vintage brick colonial I’d bought 15 years ago as a bachelor. We bought a larger, but modest house on acreage in the country, but that’s another story.
For the past year, I’ve been moving stuff out (amazing how much junk we accumulate over the years), cleaning, fixing and painting. The house has new AC and new windows and otherwise good shape. My carrying costs on the old place weren’t very high, so I wasn’t in a huge hurry to sell, and I wasn’t looking forward to selling into this market.
Now, the Roanoke economy hasn’t been hurting too badly—it’s home to several regional hospitals include a VA hospital, railroad, and regional retail. Nvertheless, I’d been watching the housing market slowly decline over the past few years, and the number of yard signs in my old neighborhood increase. Listing prices on some houses on my street were in the $110-$120K range for 1700-2000sf 3BR houses, that look OK from the outside (i.e. not foreclosures), but I hadn’t been through the insides. These listings had been up since last summer, so it was apparent to me that the market didn’t support those prices.
Like many on the HBB (hehe), I don’t have a very high regard for real estate agents, and was determined to sell by owner if possible. (I’d bought the place from the owner directly 15 years ago.) I’d also determined that the way to attract interest was through listing price. I wrote up an ad and posted on Craigslist between Xmas and New Years just to test the water. I listed at $99K. Within the next 24 hours I had 3 calls on the house. Two were interested in the house as a rental and were probing for a really low price, making mention of other forclosures, and implying that they were only interested if they could have the house for a song. Now, I wasn’t just going to give the place away (haha), as this was still just test marketing, but it’s clear that there is a a buyer for most RE at some price.
The third call on the house was a couple in their 50s just moved back from missionary work in Brazil to be a local preacher. They’d been looking in the market for the last 9 months and hadn’t really found what they were looking for (allegedly). She said something about ‘looking for a sign that they’d found the right house’. As they were getting ready to leave, they noticed that my next door neighbor was one of his new parishioners, who has an adorable 2 yo daughter. A sign from god that they should buy my house!
After some negotiation, they made me an offer for the house at $93K, which is I think somewhat less that I might have gotten at the height of the RE season in April-June, but that would mean more house payments, and anyway, after years of reading of people passing up the last, best offer, I was inclined to take the bird in hand. Also, the offer was for the house As-is; I would not be asked to fix anything noted on the inspection, the buyers only recourse would be to back out of the deal entirely. This was new to me, and, while I didn’t believe there was anything significant wrong with the house, I was tired of fixing, painting, etc. and so seemed OK to me.
We’ve now passed the inspections with nothing major noted, and expect to close in about 4 weeks.
I’ve long said; get what you can get for your house today because it’s going to be less tomorrow for many years to come.
“… less tomorrow for many years to come” = a long, drawn out deflationary poooooooof.
Humor mixed with insight: A discussion of euphemisms in The Economist. Includes euphemisms from the scatalogical to the metaphysical, along with some real estate gems.
Euphemisms
Making murder respectable
Phoney politeness and muddled messages: a guide to euphemisms
Dec 17th 2011 | from the print edition
In 1945, in one of history’s greatest euphemisms, Emperor Hirohito informed his subjects of their country’s unconditional surrender (after two atomic bombs, the loss of 3m people and with invasion looming) with the words, “The war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan’s advantage.”
http://www.economist.com/node/21541767
I can only imagine what was going through JoeSixSakes mind in Japan after the two bombs were dropped.
Of course, that is another thing that makes the US special. While there are now plenty of members in the nuke club, we are the only nation to ever use them. And let me tell you, having lived outside of the country, that is something other nations and their people are very aware of, in a negative way. Let me just say that it wasn’t only in the middle east where people cheered after the World Trade Center was destroyed.
Perspective and context - this is the lens through which all actions are viewed. An observer has a certain perspective and views the action within a certain context.
If people choose to view the actions outside of the context of World War II, I can see how the action would seem reprehensible. However, viewed within the context of World War II, I find it difficult to see how, from a pro-Allied perspective, the action seems anything but logical and humane-for-the-Allied troops and countries.
From a perspective of the Axis within the context of WWII, naturally they would oppose the action. But perhaps grudgingly view its logical nature.
Today, from an anti-American perspective, and viewing the nuking out of context, of course, it further engenders animosity.
That’s just a sampling of the perspectives and contexts by which the bombing can be seen.
Today, from an anti-American perspective, and viewing the nuking out of context, of course, it further engenders animosity.
(especially if they’re drunk)
However, viewed within the context of World War II, I find it difficult to see how, from a pro-Allied perspective, the action seems anything but logical and humane-for-the-Allied troops and countries.
When I was an ex-pat gringo I tried using that line. They aren’t buying it. Of course, it doesn’t help that we have our troops scattered around the world, occupying countries, etc.
I recall that after 9/11 the US Soccer Team played against Mexico in Mexico City. The fans welcomed the US team with chants of “Osama”. And we don’t even have troops in Mexico. Imagine what the animosity is in other countries where we do have troops.
“However, viewed within the context of World War II, I find it difficult to see how, from a pro-Allied perspective, the action seems anything but logical and humane-for-the-Allied troops and countries.”
This argument would have been more convincing if only 1 bomb had been dropped.
This argument would have been more convincing if only 1 bomb had been dropped.
To the best of my knowledge we stopped as soon as they surrendered. I think everyone including them was better off with a complete surrender rather than what we went through with Saddam in the 1990s. Going nuke twice does seem extreme, but experience since then has convinced me that they were correct to require a declared war, and then push for complete surrender as quickly as possible even though it seems overly harsh at the time.
My understanding is that the surrender was as good as made after the first bomb and there was no need for the second. Unfortunately I can’t remember my source; probably a History Channel show.
After the first bomb was dropped, there were many in the Japanese government who still wanted to continue fighting.
Hirohito decided to intercede after the second bomb was dropped; even then there were those in the government and military who wanted to continue. There was an attempt to take Hirohito prisoner/hostage by one faction in the military.
Everyone forgets that up to June 1945, we had only fought a small part of the Japanese Army. Most of it was in China and Manchuria, and was being withdrawn to defend the Home Islands.
Also not commonly known is that mining of Japanese coastal waters and the Shimonoseki Strait had just been started in earnest. In September, the US Army and Naval Air Forces were going to begin their big campaign to destroy Japan’s transportation infrastructure. Together, these would have frozen/starved out millions during the winter of 1945-46.
By the end of the Battle for Okinawa, the formula was pretty well proven:
Number of Japanese defenders/3 = US KIA for a given island/area. Then multiply by two, for WIA.
We only had two bombs.
It would takes months more to make another.
Yeah, but they didn’t know that :-).
Can you believe that a Catholic priest “blessed” an atomic bomb that was dropped on the only Catholic city in Japan? Killed hundreds of thousands…… God Bless America
School girls sign artillery shells:
http://tinyurl.com/7hksco8
Economic Report Archives
Jan. 19, 2012, 9:34 a.m. EST
U.S. housing starts fall 4.1% in December
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — New construction of U.S. houses retreated in December, putting an end to a year in which builders broke ground on a record-low number of single-family homes, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday.
Housing starts fell 4.1% to an annualized rate of 679,000 last month, after a strong gain in November had put starts at their highest level since April 2010. Read the full report.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting a stronger report, with starts forecast to rise to a 695,000 rate. See comprehensive MarketWatch calendar.
Economists had been optimistic in part because of a strong gain in builder sentiment reported earlier this week. That report however focuses on single-family construction, and runs one month ahead of the Commerce Department report.
Starts of single-family homes rose 4.4% to a 470,000 rate in December, while starts of the more volatile multifamily sector dropped 20.4% to 187,000.
…
Starts on single family homes in Loveland remain in the toilet. At the peak of the bubble there were over 1000 new homes being built each year. The last I heard it was about 80 new houses.
Don’t look now, but the Baltic Dry Index is plunging again — down from 1,912 on December 14, 2011 to 926 on January 18, 2012 — a one-month decline of (926/1,912-1)*100% = -51.6%.
For historic perspective, the index was at 11,709 on March 19, 2008, about the time Bear Stearns got its bailout and just before the Fall 2008 global financial collapse. The current level is down from the March 2008 level by (926/11,709-1)*100% = -92.1%.
Of course, so long as the Dow Jones Industrial Average keeps ascending, investors have nothing to fear.
So, the index is shipping costs, and a dropping rate means there are less companies looking to move large amounts of stuff around… correct? This indicates likelihood of falling future business activity, yes?
I don’t claim to be an expert on international trade, but my interpretation of this information is that demand for dry bulk shipments fell off the roof and never recovered since the Fall 2008 financial collapse. I seldom seem MSM discussion about this…
The index provides “an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers Handymax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain.”
wikipedia
I didn’t realize it was so weighted towards raw commodities.
Well like everything it’s supply and demand.
They built too much suppley and now there is less demand. Result prices drop. Who posted the satellite pictures of the moth balled ship fleet in Asia. Are there any updates.
If by “supply” you mean artificially manipulated markets through fraudulent speculation, then yes, you’re exactly right.
First Baltic Dry is just a dry goods index, it only measures fixtures for ships that haul bulk commodities (grains, coal, ore, etc). Containerships use a different index and oil tankers use a whole slew of separate indexes based on various ship sizes and routes.
Second, shipping is reacting to more of the basic goods work being shifted to Asia rather than the US or Europe, as well as increased global trade. These both require additional ships as voyages are longer. This was an important recovery that’s lasted longer than a decade a huge overbuild in the 1970s, in the long term 1600 would have been a yearly peak in all but the last decade.
Over the last 5 years, the index has been falling not only with reductions in demand (probably tied to China’s inventories being more or less at steady state almost more than drops in global demand) but also because shipyards have been working flat out, with very little scrapping (20-30 year old ships are still frequently operating today) partly due to regulations on tankers, but also building for bulkers.
The index is based on very recent fixtures, which are essentially the result of a bidding game between two owners of assets which carry costs to store/sit, so the index tends to be exceedingly volatile (if there are 2-3 ships sitting in port and someone figures out that 4-5 will be there in a week, they’ll frequently take a low profit contract) alternatively, bulk goods are relatively expensive to store, and need to be shipped fairly quickly. If one can look past the volatility (and keep track of building), it’s been a very good leading indicator over the last decade (at least).
Nothing you said quite managed to address the point I made above quantitatively, which is that the index crashed by over 95% in 2008 and never subsequently recovered. Moreover, it dropped by over 50% in the past month. If this index is a leading indicator, the indication isn’t pretty.
Nothing to see here move along and buy a house before it`s too late.
Stern considered settling with state over investigation before business collapsed
15 Dec 2011
Stern shut down his company in March after losing most of his clients. As many as 100,000 cases were left in temporary limbo after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac swooped in to remove files and there was confusion in transferring them to new attorneys.
http://blogs.palmbeachpost.com/realtime/2011/12/15/stern-considered-settling-with-state-over-investigation-before-business-collapsed/ - 45k -
Michael Olenick: Is Shadow Housing Inventory Vastly Larger Than Widely Believed?
Monday, January 2, 2012
Here’s the excerpt that should send a chill down the spine of any housing analyst … and everybody else too.
Jaffe: .. you’re reading reports. You’re seeing volume. You’re seeing new file intakes. You’re seeing how fast they’re closing. And you’re seeing cash flow in and out of the company.
Stern: Okay.
Jaffe: And so, you have — in 2010, you have a handle on what’s happening with the business?
Stern: As the numbers are reported in the quarterly earning calls and the investors or the world, whoever elects to participate in that call is made aware of the day-to-day happenings.
Jaffe: Right. But you have that information, that institutional knowledge of your own business far in advance of those calls and reports for that matter.
Stern: When Fannie Mae comes in and sits down and says, “David, we have 600,000 shadow inventory loans,” we say “You mean, 60,000″? And they go, “No. We mean, 600,000.” And I say, “Oh, that’s nationwide”? And they go, “No 600,000 shadow inventory in the State of Florida”. Sure, I know. Yeah, it’s exciting. [Note: transcribed verbatim from the transcript.]
http://browse.realtytrac.com/florida/ - 55k -
Michael Olenick: Is Shadow Housing Inventory Vastly Larger Than Widely Believed?
Monday, January 2, 2012
Let’s repeat that. In the spring or summer of 2010, before the robosigning scandal caused a massive slowdown in the number of foreclosures filed, Fannie Mae apparently had 600,000 loans they expected to foreclose upon. Not Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, VHA, and private label mortgages, Fannie Mae alone.
FHFA reports that Fannie Mae’s share of total US mortgage debt, at the end of 2010, is 27.7%. If Fannie Mae really does have 600,000 homes they expect to foreclose upon we’d expect to see about 2,165,000 shadow inventory homes total .. in Florida.
It’s impossible to believe this figure is accurate. Let’s look at some data. First, the Census Bureau reports there are just under nine million housing units in the entire state at the end of 2010, 8,989,580, to be exact. According to court records between July, 2010 through December, 2011, inclusive, there were 1,044 foreclosure filings per month in Stern’s home county, Broward County, FL; 22,144 filings total. However, from January, 2009, through June, 2010, inclusive, there 2,544 monthly filings in the same county; 48,144 filings total.
If the number Stern relayed is accurate, that would put a theoretical backlog of filings, for that one county, at 26,000. If we extrapolate to the rest of this high foreclosure state it’s safe to say shadow inventory estimates for the US have been dramatically underestimated, in much the same way that existing home sales were overestimated, albeit to a much more severe degree.
One thing is certain. Either a) Stern lied during his deposition, or b) Fannie Mae lied to Stern, or c) government and non-government organizations that project shadow volume have massively blown it. On Wednesday, Dec. 21st, 2011, HousingWire reports that CoreLogic projected shadow inventory to be 1.6 million homes throughout the entire United States. If Stern relayed the information correctly, and Fannie relayed it to him correctly, that figure looks more like it could be the shadow inventory of South Florida alone. Except that would mean they expect to foreclose on about half the houses in this state, which seems … impossible.
All this calls for far more disclosure on the part of the GSE’s, regulators, and courthouses. There is no legitimate reason to keep these figures locked away behind password-protected websites. Everything from the MERS database, to the Fannie/Freddie loan-level information, to the pile of mortgages the Federal Reserve has purchased should be open. This issue rivals a pressing matter of national security: there is no reason to force investors, home buyers, and others to speculate; to search for information.
He loses me with ” Except that would mean they expect to foreclose on about half the houses in this state,”
8,989,580 housing units in the entire state
and
2,165,000 shadow inventory homes in Fl.
Or 2 or 3 out of 9 seems about right.
I recall hearing that 40% oh houses are owned outright. So perhaps “half the houses” actually means “half the houses with mortgage”.
Slice the 9 million houses down to 5 million with mortgages, and the 2.2 million starts getting close to half.
WASHINGTON (AP) — A billionaire history buff has stepped forward to donate the $7.5 million matching gift that’s needed to start repairing cracks near the top of the Washington Monument from last summer’s East Coast earthquake.
What a nice guy after making billions using x gov officials to influence policy and gather info for insider trading he has decided to give back??????????
Rubenstein from the Carlyle Group.
CG is buying our local water company. Is it a safe bet that the company is in trouble? The city wanted to buy but I wonder if they could bid high enough.
I would prepare for higher water prices if other water privatization schemes are bell weathers.
http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz/VANOVEDR/
It was already private..actually Carlyle is buying its parent company. Just wondering if they will strip and flip.
I did not read your post carefully enough. Did you see an increase in rates from public to private? Water here (Central Coast CA) is crazy expensive. We’ll see how my roof collection works when it starts raining today/tonight/tomorrow.
The big Wall Street banks have achieved so much control over their industry that they amount to an illegal cartel, says William Cohan, a former banker and the author of many books and articles about Wall Street, including “Money And Power,” a book about Goldman Sachs.
The pricing power and profits that the big banks have is similar to that of Standard Oil, Cohan argues, referring to the gigantic oil monopoly owned by John Rockefeller that was broken up a century ago.
Cohan believes that the government should intervene, breaking the cartel’s stranglehold
finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/wall-street-illegal-cartel-needs-busted-william-cohan-141121623.html
Maybe we can talk him into running for president.
Rockefeller at least provided a tangible product that people and industry wanted to buy.
What are the tangible benefits created by the hedgies and quant jocks on Wall Street, in Greenwich CT, in the City of London?
Maybe we can talk him into running for president.
Not if he’s smart… Who wants to be another famous assassinated president?
Can ANYONE tell me why the media is so wrapped up with this “Dallas Model walks into propeller” story?
She must be related to someone……she’s not the first person (or the last) that’s ever walked into a propeller. Even getting “sucked into a jet engine” isn’t that uncommon (the only ones you hear about are when they result in serious injury/death).
And her job description, “Model and Blogger”…….. sounds like the job description of half the strippers in Texas. And all of the women looking for “sugar daddies”
Model? If she is considered a “model”, the standards really must be dropping in Texas.
And “bravely recuperating/rehabbing”? It’s not like she has a choice.
I’m more impressed with the guy that hacked his own arm off with a pocket knife.
Yeah, I know……I’m much too cranky and cynical……..
she’s not the first person (or the last) that’s ever walked into a propeller.
I cut the back of my head on a ceiling fan while painting on a ladder. (I know but it was really hot)
Another of many examples on why you don’t want pilots fixing their own airplanes:
http://tinyurl.com/7ljqx74
He was trying to put air in the tires.
Not knowing how to use the servicing equipment = 2000 psi plus into the tire. Blew the tires and wheels completely off the airplane. (Aircraft in question is a Falcon 10, not a Falcon 20). Exploding/flying wheel fragments damaged several other airplanes in the hangar.
Can ANYONE tell me why the media is so wrapped up with this “Dallas Model walks into propeller” story?
Because it’s no longer nice to tell blonde jokes.
My airplane mechanic was nearly cut in half by a propeller adjusting the mag timing (I think) on a running Piper Cherokee about 10 years ago. Tripped over an air hose. He lost a bunch of ribs and his right arm at the elbow.
He still works on airplanes, but occasionally asks for a hand with a wrench. And the air hose is still there.
You still don’t get how inbred the aristocracy is, yet, do you?
Of course it’s because she “knows somebody.”
Here’s the latest real estate news from Tucson and Arizona:
Phoenix didn’t see major changes in housing market
Key point:
“The number of foreclosures dropped from 41,625 in 2010 to 35,855 last year.
And the median price for a single-family home resold in Phoenix was $125,000 last year.
That’s down from $138,000 in 2010 and $260,000 in 2007.”
To which I say:
Looks like the Phoenix median SFR used house price is about 3x the median local income.
Local [Tucson] brokers forecast pickup in commercial real estate market
Fun comment after this one:
“Demand for retail space is going to increase? Best Buy, Sears, Kmart, Walmart, Barnes & Noble & too many others are watching Amazon eat away at their traffic. The internet is the best way to aquire durable goods now. Just wait until Amazon allows you to synch your usage of daily products like shampoo and laundry soap to their inventory allowing them to send new stock to you just in time without you ordering it! Grocery and clothes and cars. These are the only brick-and-morter businesses with long-term future!”
1) Yeah, housing in Phoenix is back to pre-bubble territory in most areas. Right at 100x rent and 3x income, below that in some areas. My house would sell for half what I could have sold it for 5 years ago.
2) We have an Amazon distro center here in PHX. I ordered my wife’s bday present on a Monday afternoon and it was at my door Tuesday morning, free shipping and handling and priced 20% below Wal-Mart.
I know Amazon all too well. They sell some items at a loss even before shipping is figured in. I buy everything from them, even though they compete with me.
I ordered a Sun Light desk lamp from Amazon. Free shipping. Arrived in SoCal in 2 days. Also great price!
Apparently no backlog.
Can someone explain why the rents seem so much higher than warranted based on the price of the houses? I’m seeing many many 3BR houses with asking rents of $1200 whose carrying costs, all in, are about 75-800. Is it all Section 8?
Have rents dropped in any way commensurate with the drop in housing prices? 3x income, yes, 100x rental income seems to indicate everyone who can should be buying houses to rent out.
WAIM? (what am I missing?)
We used to complain that the purchase price was out of whack compared to rental rates. They’ve fixed that for you, what more do you want? Buy a house!
Rents are falling, just more slowly than house prices, in my neighborhood. At the peak, a house hat would sell for $250K would rent for $1300. Now you can buy it for $100K-120K and rent is going about $1100.
I am writing up an offer for this reason, PITI will be a bout $600 per month with 25% down, cash flow will be $500 per month.
On the central coast?
Have rents dropped in any way commensurate with the drop in housing prices? 3x income, yes, 100x rental income seems to indicate everyone who can should be buying houses to rent out.
WAIM? (what am I missing?)
Where I am (San Francisco proper) rents are way out of whack. Currently we are looking at both rentals and buying. What I am seeing is 2-3 bedrooms (SFH) renting for well over 3K a month, while similar houses are for sale at 400K.
Before y’all get your panties in a bundle about the cost of housing in my fair city (yes it’s expensive, no I am not moving to another city), there’s the issue of what to do when both rents AND owning are equally overpriced? You gotta live somewhere…
Change your lifestyle to minimize your expenditures on housing relative to other things, because housing is more expensive than other things. A choice you have already made, by living in San Francisco.
You COULD just decide “hey kid, you’ll always have to sleep on the sofabed in the living room, but we’ll be able to help with college” since you earn more in SF than you would elsewhere. And when the kids are gone, live in a small space and travel.
Start following that ParkMerced redevelopment, or the Mission Bay redevelopment, or the Eastern District redevelopment. There may be some more affordable rentals/condos (ie. not luxury towers) added there.
That doesn’t sound out of whack to me. The mortgage alone would be in the neighborhood on $2200 a month, and taxes, insurance ($1000) + maintenance I would guess would kick it to $4k. Sounds to me like renting is still at a healthy discount if you can get a $400k place for $3000 a month.
My initial reaction was the rent was not too far off purchase price. Then when reading the rest of the post I think he meant they were BOTH out of whack with incomes. He talks about how it is just really expensive to live in San Fran.
That doesn’t sound out of whack to me. The mortgage alone would be in the neighborhood on $2200 a month, and taxes, insurance ($1000) + maintenance I would guess would kick it to $4k. Sounds to me like renting is still at a healthy discount if you can get a $400k place for $3000 a month.
More like under $2500 if you are not paying for PMI.
Grocery and clothes and cars. These are the only brick-and-morter businesses with long-term future!
We buy almost all of our clothes on-line from LL Bean, Lands End, Zappos, etc., because we have to drive 75-minutes to the nearest mall.
***
Slim, here’s a glimpse of our financial district:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzwhGju_YQc
I liked the twin woodsheds at the beginning. Followed by the camper shells on the ground. How long before those float away?
cnbc
The Federal Reserve is likely to step in with $1 trillion worth of easing that could be announced as soon as this month, according to a growing consensus of economists who see the recent uptick in economic growth as unsustainable.
With the Fed’s Open Market Committee set to meet next week, expectations are rising that the languishing housing market will drive the central bank to buy up mortgage-backed securities.
The goal of the purchases will be to drive down interest rates even further from current record-low levels, and, less obviously, to spur confidence that more monetary tools remain to stimulate the economy.
The goal of the purchases will be to drive down interest rates even further from current record-low levels, and, less obviously, to spur confidence that more monetary tools remain to stimulate the economy.
And those nasty old jobless people still won’t buy houses. Nor will the $500 a week crowd. The meanies.
OTOH, if some businesses use the opportunity to borrow money so they can expand, I’d be happy to help them with their design and photographic projects (grin).
Businesses will not borrow to expand, they will continue to do what they’ve been doing, ie borrowing so they can buy back shares and pay dividends. ie the elite are cashing out.
So that will make it, what, $17 TRILLION now?
I was pondering this. There are certain countries around the world, which can also print their own currency, where the possibility of very high government debt will increase their costs of borrowing, due to the possibility of default.
The US has been able to deficit spend dramatically without seeing borrowing costs rise.
Now, it seems to me that some in the US seem to believe this means there is no limit to the debt the US can take on without seeing borrowing costs rise. I would disagree. The critical debt amount may be far higher than the current level, but if the US nears it, it will be that much harder to restore confidence due to the momentum of the spending. And the only way the US will find that critical debt level is by coming near it.
I am sure someone here can answer this.
When looking on MLS website, you can search for foreclosures. Apparently, not too long ago you had to go to a city office and pay by the page for this sort of listing. Now it is accessible online.
A ton come up. 150 in my neighborhood alone. Some are auction, some pre-foreclosures, and quite a few REOs. Many have no price and are not listed for sale anywhere else (ie., redfin, zillow, etc.).
Maybe this is a stupid question - but is this the infamous shadow inventory? Or when we hear about the shadow inventory is it a whole other pile of pre-forclosures and auctions and REO’s that no one but the banks know about?
Maybe this is a stupid question - but is this the infamous shadow inventory? Or when we hear about the shadow inventory is it a whole other pile of pre-forclosures and auctions and REO’s that no one but the banks know about?
Here’s how I count shadow inventory:
1. Empty houses that may be in foreclosure, or close to it. These are probably jingle mail places.
2. Houses where the mortgagees have stopped making payments. They may be in the process of foreclosure, but with the banks dragging their feet, who knows.
3. Houses that are being rented because they didn’t sell. These are the “accidental landlord” places.
Houses where the mortgagees have stopped making payments. They may be in the process of foreclosure, but with the banks dragging their feet, who knows.
Wouldn’t this appear as a “pre-foreclosure”?
I think that depends on your area. Here in Pima County, Arizona, I’ve seen houses that have been foreclosed and sold to new owners being listed as if there wasn’t a thing going wrong. This is in the county assessor records, not the MLS.
I can point to an example of this a couple of blocks over. Place was bought by an in-VEST-or in 2007. It was rented until the end of 2010, when the tenants went poof and vanished. It was foreclosed and sold to a new owner late last year. Looks like it’s getting a fixup to flip now.
But, in the county assessor records, it’s still listed as being owned by the in-VEST-or.
“Wouldn’t this appear as a “pre-foreclosure”?”
Last house I rented went at least 2 1/2 years without a mortgage payment being made and was never listed as a pre-foreclosure. The house I am currently renting is currently at 9 months w/o a mortgage payment and not listed anywhere as a pre-foreclosure. If it were not for the inspectors that come out from the bank (in this case Wells Fargo) I would nevr have known or been able to find out.
Good breakdown. But may as well add:
4. Houses that would have been sold over the past five years, as the owners are empty-nesters who want to right-size to retirement housing, but have not sold, as the owner is waiting for prices to “come back.”
Don’t you still have to pay to get access to the details of the properties?
Grrrr. President O’Bama I hope will lose the next presidential election. When he decided to stop the Keystone project he lost my imaginary vote.
President Bush encouraged Canada to further develop the tar sands and we did. Soon we will have a 1,000,000 barrel a day surplus which before we refused to sell to the Chinese when we cancelled the Kitimat pipeline. Now we will have to restart that process.
Should we ? No. Because the sound is 112 miles inland, twisty, and sometimes very narrow. Not good for VLCC ships carrying a million barrels of oil !
Did you know that the highest tsunami in recorded history has occured in that sound when a mountain fell into it !
Why not just use one of the existing pipelines to Vancouver and make it much bigger?
And send the oil to a lot of different countries - not just one. Unless the USA changes it’s mind and will accept it.
Oh, btw, did you know that the world’s biggest known oil endowed area is right around the mouth of this sound - but it cannot be drilled due to an oil tanker (Valdez) running amok !
I love the Kitimat area but huge ships in it’s sound scares me.
I think Obama did the right thing here. We need to free our self from all foreign oil imports. That includes Canada and Mexico as well as the OPEC gang. You should remember Saudi Arabia needs the price of oil to stay high and anything that keeps Canada oil off the market must make them happy. A few weeks back I remember Saudi Arabia bought 30 billion of high tech weapons (84 F-15s).
http://news.yahoo.com/cash-strapped-ireland-tests-limits-austerity-180643144.html
Irish are waking up to the costs of profligate spending and speculation, and surrending national sovereignty to supra-national bodies tasked with getting the banksters’ money back. Coming soon to a nation of sheep near you.
A few days ago I mentioned that the collapse of natural gas prices would have a Black Swan effect. Nobody saw this coming I bet.
Bond investors doubt more than ever KKR & Co. and TPG Capital’s chances of salvaging the biggest leveraged buyout in history, their $43.2 billion purchase in 2007 of the former TXU Corp. Since the private equity firms bought the Dallas-based company, now known as Energy Future Holdings Corp., natural gas prices have tumbled 50 percent, as shale gas floods the U.S. market. That, in turn, has slashed Texas wholesale electricity prices and trimmed EFH’s revenue, although EFH uses natural gas hedges to lessen the impact.
Less than a year after EFH extended maturities on more than $17.8 billion of debt, traders of credit-default swaps — bets on EFH’s likelihood of paying off the debts — are pricing in a 91 percent chance the company will fail to meet its obligations in the next three years..
Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/01/19/3673160/investors-doubtful-about-salvage.html#storylink=cpy