The Housing Bubble

For those who didn’t catch Daily Show Florida drug testing bit. Classic…

http://floridaindependent.com/67763/daily-show-welfare-drug-testing

Gas is up, daycare is up, food is up, electric is up, water is up, car insurance is going up…

I’m about 3 months away from a Bank of Dad payday loan.

Sad for two working adults.

“Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Fl)
2012-02-03 10:38:59
But an even bigger question remains about the reaction of governments, or their people, worldwide to cope with the economic stresses that are the result of the Greenspan Mania.

Whenever economies collapse from debt destruction, there are usually riots, revolution, and most often WAR.”

Wait, I don’t understand. Why would debt destruction collapse an economy?

One day I owe someone, and the next day I do not. This can only be good for me, right? That seems it should only boost the economy.

What could possibly be bad about debt destruction?

“Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Fl)
2012-02-03 09:16:39

You are going about this the wrong way. If you are still young enough to have 20 more years of work ahead of you, then here is a much better option:
Quit your jobs and get a government job”

I have applied for, and even been offered government jobs in the past. The problem is, they pay less.

When I was in the Navy, as an E6, I was making about 30K a year. It I recall, and I could be off since this is almost 20 years ago now, it was about $20K base pay and $10K housing and equivilants. When I was closing in on 8 years, I earned a BSCS, and was forced to make a decision between staying military or going civilian.

Military, I could have made $30K for another 12 years, then retired at 20 years. Retired pay would have been about half my base pay, or something like $10K a year. I was already E6, so promotions were going to slow down. Oppertunities for advancement were slim.

I chose to get out of the military. I was offerd a job at the place I was stationed, at $35K a year, but that was Hawaii and the cost of living was too high for a family of 5 on $35K.

I moved to Colorado. I was offered a job on Ft. Carson for $25K a year with a structured pay and limited advancement… Oh, but the pension is worth so much. Well, the people working there were working for the pension, so never left, and that created the limited room for advancement.

I was also offered a position at MCI for $30K with way more oppertunity for advancement. I also was offered 401(k) match (60% upto 5%) and a pension (1/2% per year vs. gvts 1%). 3 years later we were bought by WorldCom and the pension was first to go. 5 years after starting with MCI, I was making $50K. I decided it was time to move on and started looking. Government offered me $35K. I got a job making $65K for a tech company (man, was that an eye opener… watching the DotCom bubble from the inside).

9 years after getting out of the military I was making $72K a year when the tech wreck hit.

Sure, I gave up $10k a year for, probably about 40 years ($400K), but I was making $40K a year more than I would have.

When my company shut down the entire Colorado operation, I again went looking for work. Govt job offered about $45K. I got a job here in AZ at $70K. 10 years later, I’m up in the $80ks.

So, when you think about now much money those people are collecting in retirement, you also need to think about how much money they gave up during their working years, accepting the lower pay that came along with that pension.

Yesterday I focused on the non-intuitive aspects of the economy that form the bases of my economic arguments.

The modern concept of money is not the archaic concept of barter currencies (gold, silver, pelts, bags of corn, loaves of bread, bundles of tobacco, spools of silk thread), but rather is simply a measure of other peoples’ debt. In barter currency, there was significant overlap between money and wealth. In the modern concept, there is a clear difference between the two.

Wealth is what you buy. Money is your or other peoples’ debt that you buy it with.

People work and use resources to create wealth. People take out a loan to create money.

Today, I would like to touch on the politics of my positions.

But first, I will address a question I was asked.

If it is impossible for everyone to be net accumulating money, isn’t it also impossible for everyone to be net spending. YES! Everyone’s income is someone spending, AND everyone’s spending is someone’s income.

However, if we divide the economy into groups, it is possible for everyone in group A to be net accumulating money while everyone in group B is net spending.

Divide those groups, by, say…. oh…. national boundaries, then track the money going each way. If the money movement is not equal, then let’s call this trade deficit/surplus.

Now, we come to a chicken/egg moment.

We could start with the defict and say that it is manditory that the people in the country with the trade deficit be net spending into debt, creating the money that is flowing out of the country. Or, I supose you could flip it around and say that if the people in the trade deficit country all stopped net spending on debt, the trade imbalance could not exist.

I would argue that if the wages in one country are 1/10th that of another, then a trade imbalance is inevitable. That is, of course, unless things like echanges rate adjust to offset the wage imbalance or something like tariffs are used to counter the wage imbalance.

IF there is this wage imbalance AND exchange rates and tariffs are not used to counter it, THEN the imbalance is inevitable. If the imbalance is inevitable, then the nation on the deficit side of the trade must be net spending going into debt.

Every year, the USA is buying $650B more from its trade partners than those trade parteners buy from the USA. That is 4% of our GDP. With 100 million households, that is $6,500 per household, per year, or more that 10% of the median income.

And, here is where we come to the political point.

Short-term, the country is benefiting from our trade deficits. We have 2 billion people around the world making stuff, sendung us their wealth in exchange for IOUs we just borrow into existence. Since there is an election every 2 years, politically it is advantagious to think very short term. Besides, the people that benefit most from these imbalances give large kick-backs to government to ensure we don’t mess with it.

The inevitable result of trade imbalance is debt. Well, politically, it is pretty easy to blame the debt on “the other guy”. So, one political party blames the spending for the debt. The other side blames the low income for the debt. Along comes a 3rd party that blames the banking system itself for the debt. All very solid platforms upon which to construct a political party.

Along comes someone like me that says, global wage imbalance makes trade imbalance inevitable, and that trade imbalance makes debt inevitable. Well, NO ONE wants to hear that. You mean, the same thing that let’s me consume the lion’s share of 2 billion impoverished workers’ wealth is really to underlying cause of the unsustainable debt?

That is a pretty tough political pill to swallow.

So, IF we were to accept that wage imbalance makes trade imbalance,and trade imbalance necessitates debt, what do we do?

Crash the wages in the USA to $2 an hour to compete in the global economy, to end the trade deficits, and end being net spenders on debt? Vote for me and I’ll make sure your wages fall 90%.

Increase the wages in the rest of the world 10x to make USA wages cost competative? Good luck with that. If we try to raise 7 billion people to the standard of living of the USA, there is not enough raw resources to go around. We may be able to replace humans with machines and robots but that isn’t going to put more oil or metals in the ground. Vote for me and I’ll ensure the rest of the world can deplete rare natural resrouces at a frightening pace.

Continue being $650B a year net spenders? This is the road to collapse into depression. Well, if we strip away the lies of the two parites, we really get here. Republicans claim they will cut spending, but until they put SS/MC/DoD on the table for 40-50% cuts, well, it is a sick joke. Dems talk of making the rich pay more, but, sorry, the income of the leaders of Chindia are outside your tax jurisdiction.

Trade war, nationalism? My initial reaction is, yes. But, I don’t think I’d win an election saying that I want to increase the price of all imports by 200% or more.

I get it why people reject my arguments. They are both non-intuitive and politically inconvenient. Shall we add in, truley destructive to the lifestyle of the PTB who benefit from the status quo?

Finally, someone posited what would the trade deficit look like if we had 1.5% net savings. Let’s think about that, shall we?

Let’s say govt slashes its spending $1.7T. Let’s say 70% of the cuts come off household income, 25% off corporate incomes and 5% off the trade deficit. Let’s pretend that business and dividend recepients can absorb their $425B lost revenues wihtout spending cuts.

Now, households, with $1.2T less income pay $200B less tax. Business also pay $90B less tax. The govt has a $300B deficit back, just rightthere.

For households to maintain our current savings rate, they have to slice their spending $1T ($1.2 lower income -$200B loser taxes). That is another $1T off GDP. Let’s say this time it is 10% off trade deficit, businesses eat 30% of the lost revenue as lowe profits, and 60% comes off household income. This drops govt receipts another $180B based on current receipts = 18% GDP.

Household income is down another $600B, their taxes are down $120B so this time they only have to cut spending $480B.

So, we’re on the 2nd echo cut. We’ve sliced $1.7T, $1T, and $480B off GDP. GDP is dowm from $15T to $11.8T. Govt has a $500B deficit again on lower cuts, and we still have the $480B to echo through the economy.

By this point, household income is down from $8T to $6.5T. I think it safe to assume 5 million more mortgages are in default, every bank in the county is insolvant, commodity prices have tanked 20% lower demand. Corporate profits are off 30% so stock prices are crashing….

Pretty much we’re in 2008 full collapse mode, except this time, instead of TARP, we have to deal with $500B in echo government spending cuts.

On the upside, we’ve sliced some $300B off our trade deficits. Of course, that $300B lower income to our trading partners is now echoing back as lower exports. Slice another $200B off GDP, $150B off household income and $50B off corporate profits and $50B off tax receipts.

Now we have $530B of household spending drop to echo through the economy, and another $550B in the next round of govt spending cuts….

This is why austarity is failing in Europe. Countries with a lack of natural resources, unable to directly attack their trade imbalances with tariffs and exchange rates, cut spending, see the economy tank, see their recipts fall, and deficits still do not go away.

We can’t spend our way out of this, because the money just leaks out of the economy. We can’t cut our way out of this because with their loabor advantages, the trade imbalances arenot going to go away until irtually all econmic activity in the USA stops.

From yesterday:

A colleague and his wife, both Grinch conservatives, took me out to a going away dinner.

So … did he hit on any women while his wife was in the powder room?

Realtors Are Liars®

Speed dating to select fraudsters. Makes sense….

Hedge funds try to hook up with pension funds

In investing, as in life, it is critical to find the right partner.

On Tuesday in Boca Raton, big hedge funds including Tudor Investment Corp., Marathon Asset Management and York Capital, as well as smaller rivals like Voltan Capital Management and Titan Capital Group crowded into a large conference room for the hedge fund industry’s version of speed dating.

Seated at tiny round tables, the managers (who are in Florida for the GAIM USA investor conference) eagerly awaited visits from potential investors like state pension funds from Wisconsin and North Carolina, and fund of funds firms like Rock Creek Group.

Every few minutes a bell tolled telling the roughly 50 investors there to move on to the next date. The ratio was about two managers for every investor. Time was of the essence as managers rattled off their skills.

GAIM USA, the first major event on the hedge fund conference calendar, follows one of the industry’s worst annual performances in its history. Despite losses of about 5 percent for the average hedge fund last year, pension funds and other big investors are still looking to put money in.

http://blogs.reuters.com/unstructuredfinance/2012/01/24/hedge-funds-try-to-hook-up-with-pension-funds/

Found the perfect spot for a HBB off-site:

GAIM Ops Cayman 2012

http://www.iirusa.com/gaim-cayman/home-page.xml

GAIM Ops is the only forum to discuss issues facing the industry: OTC derivative rules, implications of hedge fund registration, ramifications of Dodd Frank Act, what to do if the SEC knocks on the door, impact of recent activities at the SEC FSA, and CIMA, impact of the Volcker rule, how to recover of assets from windup petitions, and much more!

http://www.hedgeweek.com/event/fund-hedge-funds/gaim-ops-cayman-2012

Have Economists Got It Wrong About The U.S.?
Marilyn Geewax and Scott Neuman

Workers build a Jeep Compass at the Chrysler assembly plant in Belvidere, Ill. Friday’s employment report showed growth in manufacturing, much of which reflects the rebirth of the U.S. auto industry .
Scott Olson/Getty Images

February 3, 2012

Five years ago, a subprime mortgage firestorm was melting down the U.S. economy, but most analysts didn’t see it happening.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, testifying before Congress in February 2007, said the housing sector “is a concern, but at this point we don’t see it as being a broad financial concern or a major factor in assessing the course of the economy.”

If he and the vast majority of economists were blind to the economic and financial calamity taking shape then, could they also be missing the start of a huge economic boom now?

A boom? Really?

Maybe. On Friday, the Labor Department said employers added 243,000 net jobs – about 100,000 more than most economists were predicting. The unemployment rate fell to 8.3 percent, dropping two-tenths of a point to the lowest level in three years. As recently as August, the jobless rate was 9.1 percent.

In recent months, economists have been consistently wrong about the strength of hiring. In fact, the Labor Department said it had been too negative. It revised previous months to show that the economy gained a total of 60,000 jobs more than originally reported for November and December.

So if they were so wrong in seeing the Great Recession coming, it’s possible they are blind to the “Great Recovery” that might be under way. If there is indeed a boom taking shape, it’s being led by the new strength in the energy sector, agriculture, technology and even manufacturing.
…

There has never been a better time to refi.

WEEKEND INVESTOR
FEBRUARY 4, 2012

Refinancing: Time to Act?
By JESSICA SILVER-GREENBERG

Mortgage rates have been hovering at historical lows for months—but some homeowners are waiting for even better deals before they take the plunge and refinance.

Experts say that could be a mistake.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low of 3.87% for the week ended Feb. 2, according to mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac. Rates on fixed-rate 15-year loans dropped to 3.14%.

Many homeowners who are able to refinance are holding out because they believe rates still have more to fall.

Jason Riggs, a consultant to a San Francisco nonprofit, is grappling with whether he should refinance the $560,000 mortgage on his duplex. The 38-year-old wants to get a better rate than his current 5%, but says, “I’m really wary of spending the time and money to do this and then have rates go lower.”

Adding to the optimism over the prospects for lower rates: President Barack Obama’s recent appeal to Congress for new legislation to allow homeowners who are current on their mortgages the chance to refinance at bargain-basement rates.
Already Near Bottom?

Yet in the short term, the administration’s proposal isn’t likely to lower rates, experts say. In a report this month, Barclays Capital called it more “bark than bite.”

Some economists predict the Federal Reserve will embark on a third round of bond-buying known as “quantitative easing” to target mortgage rates directly. In this scenario, the Fed would buy large quantities of mortgage bonds to drive down rates.

But many economists don’t think such a program would move the needle significantly. “It’s going to take heroic measures in the short term to do much more with rates,” says Brad Hunter, chief economist at Houston-based Metrostudy, a housing-market research firm.

If anything, with the economy improving, albeit slowly, the odds are better that rates will tick a bit higher in coming months, economists say.

The upshot: “This is an excellent time to refinance,” says Greg McBride, a senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com, a consumer information site.
…

Never been a better time for desperate sellers to hold out for another year.

MARKETWATCH
JANUARY 29, 2012

Housing Remains a Buyer’s Market
By AMY HOAK

A majority of Americans recently surveyed say now is a good time to buy a home. That’s no surprise, given that record-low mortgage interest rates and bargain home prices are boosting affordability.

But selling a home? That’s a different story.

According to 71% of the 1,000 people surveyed by Fannie Mae in December, now is a good time to buy a house. But only 11% think it’s a good time to sell.

That’s because sellers sense that even if the housing market and the economy continue to show signs of improvement in 2012, the good news likely won’t be good enough for buyers to return to the market in droves—even if they can buy a home for a steal.

“For people to start buying in larger volume, they need to see home prices go up a bit,” says Ingo Winzer, president of Local Market Monitor, a firm that analyzes housing markets for bankers.

Many potential buyers also are waiting to see the jobs picture improve, which will give them confidence in the stability of their own employment, Mr. Winzer says.

Improvements Ahead

Still, various forecasts and surveys suggest better times for the housing market this year:

Sales of existing homes are expected to grow between 2% and 5% in 2012, according a recent forecast from Freddie Mac.

A recent survey of about 1,000 Re/Max real-estate agents found that 39% of agents think prices have hit bottom in their market, while almost 75% think home prices in their markets will have stopped declining by the end of 2012.

The number of improving housing markets rose to 76 in January, from 41 in December, according to the Improving Markets Index, from First American Financial Corp. and the National Association of Home Builders.

Nationwide, home prices are expected to be relatively flat in 2012, says Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital, a provider of real-estate asset-valuation data for financial-services companies. Indeed, 2012 seems to be a turning point before a healthier and sustained recovery in 2013, he says.

If You Can Hold Out

While now still may not be the perfect time to sell a home, it may be time for home sellers to get their places ready for a sale next year.

Of course, markets vary. Prices already are on the rise in some places, including parts of Florida, Washington, D.C., and Dayton, Ohio, Mr. Villacorta says.

But other markets—including Chicago, Atlanta, Detroit and Las Vegas—continue to be on a “downward slide,” according to a December report from Realtor.com.

Either way, holding out until next year could mean a quicker and more profitable sale.

“From a seller’s point of view, it’s still a little early, though tempting, to put the house up for sale and expect a lot of demand,” Mr. Villacorta says. “Unless there are circumstances that dictate they have to sell now, certainly waiting and tracking the markets a little bit more would be a more prudent thing to do.”

Still, some sellers have delayed their moving decisions for years now. For those champing at the bit to make a sale and move on with their lives, 2012 may offer glimmers of hope.
…

Foreclosure lawyer probes left up to Florida Bar

By Kimberly Miller
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 10:13 p.m. Friday, Feb. 3, 2012

The Florida Bar’s investigations into foreclosure fraud by its members jumped 63 percent in the past year, but no disciplinary actions against attorneys have been levied since complaints began to mount in the fall of 2010.

The responsibility to hold lawyers accountable for foreclosure misconduct now rests solely with the Florida Bar after the state attorney general’s investigation into high-volume foreclosure law firms collapsed this week.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/foreclosures/foreclosure-lawyer-probes-left-up-to-florida-bar-2147322.html -

Rich Toscano, Noted Housing Bear, Buys a House: VOSD Radio
Posted: Wednesday, January 25, 2012 11:33 am | Updated: 6:37 pm, Mon Jan 30, 2012.

by Scott Lewis

In 2004, Rich Toscano launched Professor Piggington’s Econo-Almanac for the Landed Poor.

I asked him the other day to explain why he did it:

In order to inform my own financial decisions, I became very interested in the question of whether real estate was in a bubble or whether the price rise was legit. I didn’t find much in the way of good analysis on this question, so I started digging into the data myself. Upon doing so, it became very clear to me that there was a massive speculative bubble underway.

My friends and I had been debating the “bubble or no bubble” topic for a while, so of course I set about showing them all my graphs and evidence. At some point I decided to just put it up online and refer people to the website.

To his surprise, more than just his friends found it interesting.
…

Is Uncle Sam unwinding his REO portfolio?

Government officials testing plan for foreclosed homes
It’s unclear whether properties in Lancaster area will be turned into rentals
5:49 AM, Feb. 4, 2012 |
Written by Mark Wert
The Cincinnati Enquirer

The government is starting to shed foreclosed, single-family homes it owns — by selling them in bulk to investors, who would turn them into rental properties.

Officials, however, are saying only that test sales will occur “in the near-term” with a focus on the areas hardest hit by foreclosures. They declined to comment beyond a news release they issued.

It’s too soon to say whether the Columbus metro area, where the government owns 475 properties up for sale, would be part of the test. Fairfield County is part of the metro area.

With 3,716 of these homes, Ohio ranks seventh on the list of states where the Federal Housing Administration or government-sponsored Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac own foreclosed properties.

Converting the houses to rental units might raise the hackles of nearby homeowners and housing advocates, who are watching the issue closely.

Putting too many houses up for sale at one time also could drive prices down and hurt neighbors’ values.

“It makes sense for them to not flood the market all at once,” said Rachel Hastings, director of neighborhood and housing initiatives at the Center for Great Neighborhoods. The Covington, Ky.-based nonprofit takes rental properties and rehabs them. A few of the homes once were owned by Fannie, Freddie or FHA.
…

Follow up to…

Three big banks were hit on Friday with yet another lawsuit related to wrongful foreclosures. Democratic New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman filed suit against Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo for deceptive and fraudulent use of a private database used to register mortgages, according to a Friday press release from his office
———————————————————————————-
It’s legal, but wrong, for Attorney General Eric Schneiderman to pocket campaign cash

Monday, August 15, 2011, 4:00 AM

Since his election in November, state Attorney General Eric Schneiderman has raised $1.1 million in campaign donations - half of which he put into his own pocket. Legally.

His political finances are a study in the excesses permitted under New York’s election law.

It’s well known that the rules let candidates harvest donations exponentially higher than allowed under federal regulations.

In Schneiderman’s case, the oversized limit combined with lax strictures on campaign loans to create an unseemly situation:

He tapped contributors to, in effect, replenish his personal bank account. Again, legally.

Schneiderman competed in a five-way Democratic race for the open AG’s seat. Two weeks before the primary, he loaned his campaign $550,000 and put the money toward prevailing through the general election.

After he took office in January, his coffers held $132,000 - not nearly enough to repay his loan. He began fund-raising and did very well, pulling in the $1.1 million, according to disclosure forms.

Half the money he turned over to himself, taking $250,000 on May 3 and $300,000 on July 11.

The donors who helped Schneiderman climb out of the hole included unions, law firms and businesses, which gave him $646,000. Individuals contributed $414,000, with just 39 people kicking in 80% of that amount.

Among those who gave large sums are hedge fund king John Paulson, the correction officers union, the doctors’ lobby, the health care workers union and the state troopers union.

Some political donors seek nothing but the election of a preferred candidate. Some hope to buy influence. Whatever the motivation, infusions of large sums, as allowed in New York, create at least the impression of a political system governed by cash. The appearance is worsened when an elected official needs funds to get out of a personal financial hole.

http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/legal-wrong-attorney-general-eric-schneiderman-pocket-campaign-cash-article-1.948252 - 136k -

Lantana buys waterfront land for 78% off boomtime price

by Jeff Ostrowski

The town of Lantana this month paid just under $1.2 million for an acre of waterfront property. The previous sale price: $5.33 million in 2006.

The seller, Real Estate Property Holdings II of Miami, had planned a 15-unit townhouse project on the site at 106-122 N. Lake Drive.

“We thought it was a good deal,” Town Manager Mike Bornstein said.

The town council voted 3-2 last month to buy the property and turn it into a park.

http://blogs.palmbeachpost.com/realtime/2012/01/24/lantana-buys-waterfront-land-for-78-off-boomtime-price/ - 43k

The pictures I took in India are killing me. I need to process them and I’m feeling lazy (which is rare for me.)

I need some motivational feedback (or some kicking.)

“We do consult with the assessor’s office ahead of time to find the fair market value.”

How does the assessor determine fair market value of a tax-delinquent house with a defaulted mortgage in the wake of a collapsed housing bubble?

UT San Diego News
224 PROPERTIES UP FOR PUBLIC AUCTION
San Diego County treasurer-tax collector to sell homes of those in default
Written by Lily Leung
12:01 a.m., Feb. 4, 2012

Are you scouting for a home bargain?

You may want to try San Diego County’s annual public auction.

The treasurer-tax collector’s office on Feb. 24 is scheduled to sell more than 200 properties belonging to people who have been in default for five years. The county is attempting to recover more than $3.4 million in property taxes. That figure includes penalties and fees.

The owners still have a chance to keep those properties as long as they become current by 5 p.m. Feb. 23. Otherwise, their home will end up on the auction block.

This year, 79 properties and 145 “unimproved parcels,” or raw land, may be sold at auction.

“We hope that everyone who is delinquent will pay up,” said County Treasurer-Tax Collector Dan McAllister in a statement.

Opening bids are based on the amount of taxes owed, penalty late fees and the cost of the auction.

“One caveat,” McAllister said. “We do consult with the assessor’s office ahead of time to find the fair market value.”

How common is it for someone to find a bargain at these auctions?

“I would say it’s not common to see great deals at these auctions,” McAllister said. “But what is common is there may be one or two properties that jump out as something in the bargain category.”

McAllister called 2011 “one of the slowest of all of the auction years that I’ve done,” but he hopes more people will come and spend this year.

This will be the ninth year the county has held the public auction. It will be the first year that time shares will not be part of the auction, because they are too time-consuming, McAllister said. Instead, the county will hold an online sale for those properties in April or May, following the lead of Riverside County.
…
Interested in bidding?

A registration packet is $70 and available at five offices of the county treasurer-tax collector — go to utsandiego.com/auction2012. A $1,000 refundable deposit is required.

The auction will be held Feb. 24 at the San Diego Convention Center, 111 W. Harbor Drive, downtown San Diego, in Room 6A.

Many years ago, I’d found a beautiful diagram explaining how “asset inflation” works in practice.

For economists, it was a really excellent visual representation of “mv = pq”.

90% of the arguments here could be solved if only people understood this diagram. (I’m gonna stay out of the political ones on general principle.)

Alas, I have been unable to find it. Perhaps it’s a standard diagram?

Can anyone help me?

PS :- This is a “top-down” view. I’m much more comfortable with the “bottom-up detail-oriented” view but they are two identical ways of looking at the same thing. Macro v/s micro, you might call it.

Bill Moyers guest this week did a good job of explaining why liberals and progressives are doomed, they have no morals.

http://billmoyers.com/episode/how-do-conservatives-and-liberals-see-the-world/

http://billmoyers.com/content/excerpt-from-the-righteous-mind/

My comment: The only real challenge will be the unstoppable demographics of non-white voters and technology’s ability to disrupt the status quo.

This is the same hood that the lady who was collecting rent on 2 condos w/o paying the mortgage on them for years while receiving Hardest Hit money to pay the mortgage on her Maplewood home which she had refied to the moon lives in. Her neighbor shown here had a pretty good run also, bought for $145,000.00 in 1997 and then extracted two or three hundred-thousand dollars in “equity” then lived for free for a few years and now appears to be on her way down Victim Rd. with a sad story to tell over on foreclosure hamlet.

Today on Realtor.com
125 E Hampton WY Jupiter, FL 33458
$269,000 Price Reduced
Beds:3 Bed
Baths:2 Bath
House Size:1,975 Sq Ft
•Status: Contingency
•County: PALMBEACH
•Subdivision: HAMPTONS AT MAPLEWOOD
MLS ID R3220172
Added to Site August 25, 2011
———————————————————————————-
County Property Appraiser
Property InformationLocation
Address: 125 E HAMPTON WAY
Municipality: JUPITER
Parcel Control Number: 30-42-41-11-15-000-2550
Subdivision: HAMPTONS AT MAPLEWOOD

Owner Information
Name: BELLEW VERONICA L
Mailing Address: 125 E HAMPTON WAY
JUPITER FL 33458 8137

Sales Information
Type: D
Date/Time: 1/28/1997 09:42:57
CFN: 19970031230
Book Type: O
Book/Page: 9630/150
Pages: 3
Consideration: $145,000.00
Party 1: HOFFMAN J BARTON & STEPHANIE L
HOFFMAN STEPHANIE L (M)
Party 2: BELLEW GEERTRUIDA E
BELLEW VERONICA L
Legal: HAMPTONS AT MPLWD L255 L

Party Time!

Type: MTG
Date/Time: 10/24/2000 08:28:21
CFN: 20000405498
Book Type: O
Book/Page: 12090/574
Pages: 9
Consideration: $140,000.00
Party 1: BELLEW VERONICA L
Party 2: GREAT EASTERN MTG & INVEST INC
Legal: HAMPTONS AT MPLWD L255 L

Type: MTG
Date/Time: 6/6/2001 07:59:35
CFN: 20010237017
Book Type: O
Book/Page: 12616/1870
Pages: 19
Consideration: $141,000.00
Party 1: BELLEW VERONICA L
Party 2: WELLS FARGO HOME MTG INC
Legal: HAMPTONS AT MPLWD L255 L

Type: MTG
Date/Time: 1/26/2002 09:44:31
CFN: 20020046603
Book Type: O
Book/Page: 13348/1575
Pages: 6
Consideration: $42,000.00
Party 1: BELLEW VERONICA L
Party 2: FIRST UNION NATIONAL BANK
Legal: HAMPTONS AT MPLWD L255 L

Type: MTG
Date/Time: 6/5/2003 12:50:27
CFN: 20030328720
Book Type: O
Book/Page: 15327/1410
Pages: 16
Consideration: $171,000.00
Party 1: BELLEW VERONICA L
Party 2: MORTGAGE ELECTRONIC REGISTRATION SYSTEMS INC
GREAT EASTERN MORTGAGE & INVESTMENT INC
Legal: HAMPTONS AT MPLWD L255 L

Type: MTG
Date/Time: 9/27/2006 15:47:22
CFN: 20060554437
Book Type: O
Book/Page: 20901/477
Pages: 6
Consideration: $135,000.00
Party 1: BELLEW VERONICA L
Party 2: WACHOVIA BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
Legal: HAMPTONS AT MPLWD L255 L

Type: LP
Date/Time: 12/9/2011 14:59:05
CFN: 20110458987
Book Type: O
Book/Page: 24898/1995
Pages: 1
Consideration: $0.00
Party 1: WELLS FARGO BANK NA
Party 2: BELLEW VERONICA L
BELLEW SPOUSE
WELLS FARGO BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
WACHOVIA BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
HAMPTONS AT MAPLEWOOD HOMEOWNERS ASSOCIATION INC
MAPLEWOOD PROPERTY OWNERS ASSOCIATION INC
Legal: HAMPTONS AT MPLWD L255 L

LINDSEY BUCKINGHAM HOLIDAY ROAD (NATIONAL LAMPOON’S VACATION) LYRICS

I found out long ago
It’s a long way down the Victim Road

Victim Road oh ohooo oh ohooh ohoo ohooh ohoo
Victim Road oh ohooo oh ohooh ohoo ohooh ohoo

Jack be nimble, Jack be quick
Last refied back in 06

Victim Road oh ohooo oh ohooh ohoo ohooh ohoo
Victim Road oh ohooo oh ohooh ohoo ohooh ohoo
Victim Road oh ohooo oh ohooh ohoo ohooh ohoo
Victim Road oh ohooo oh ohooh ohoo ohooh ohoo

He stopped paying long ago
But it`s a long way down Victim Road

Victim Road oh ohooo oh ohooh ohoo ohooh ohoo
Victim Road oh ohooo oh ohooh ohoo ohooh ohoo
Victim Road oh ohooo oh ohooh ohoo ohooh ohoo

Bill Gross a) endorsing Ron Paul and b) turning bullish on gold? See for yourself.

http://www.ronpaul2012.com/2012/02/02/bond-king-bill-gross-im-ron-paulish/

I’m exhausted after a day of play outside with the kids. I can’t believe “winter” this year. I mean, it’s usually mild this time of year in Florida, but holy hell I was frying today on the playground.

Newt’s goose seems not merely cooked, but at least well-done, if not burned to a crisp.

Gingrich’s Deep Ties to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Mike Brown/Reuters
Speaker Newt Gingrich in 1998 in Ireland, where he helped promote a program sponsored by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. His campaign said he had been invited by Habitat for Humanity.
By ERIC LICHTBLAU
Published: February 3, 2012

WASHINGTON — On a trip to Ireland in 1998, Speaker Newt Gingrich researched his Irish roots, discussed the prospects for peace in Northern Ireland and entertained speculation about his presidential ambitions. He even donned work gloves and blue jeans to help build a home in Belfast for a good-will project.

Two of the sponsors for part of the Ireland trip were frequent partners of Mr. Gingrich: Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae — the government-backed housing industry giants that Mr. Gingrich has denounced as he fights to stay in contention against Mitt Romney in the Republican primaries.

Mr. Gingrich has faced many questions recently about the more than $1.6 million in consulting fees he got from Freddie Mac since leaving Congress in 1999. But part of the relationship started years earlier, as records and interviews show that Mr. Gingrich, as House leader in the 1990s, aligned himself with Freddie and Fannie on a number of key issues — defending them in Congress against political attacks, joining with them on housing projects and seeing top aides go work for them.

While Mr. Gingrich has minimized his past connections to the two closely related companies on the campaign trail, his Congressional record shows that his political and financial ties to the firms run deeper and farther back than he has acknowledged publicly and, in fact, set the stage for the lucrative consulting work that followed.

Mr. Gingrich, whose campaign declined to comment on his ties with Fannie and Freddie while in Congress, has been blistering in his recent criticism of the mortgage finance companies. He has blamed them in part for the 2008 housing collapse, said they should now be “broken up,” and in an October debate he declared that Representative Barney Frank should be “in jail” for associating with lobbyists close to Freddie.

But while in Congress, Mr. Gingrich had kind words for the companies. Announcing a housing partnership in Atlanta in 1995, for instance, he held up Fannie as “an excellent example of a former government institution fulfilling its mandate while functioning in the market economy.”

He was far from Fannie and Freddie’s only Congressional supporter in those years; before the stain of the 2008 housing collapse, the companies’ allies were legion.

But Mr. Gingrich’s help was seen as particularly crucial after the Republicans took control of the House in 1994, as Freddie and Fannie tried to turn back rising hostility from some Republicans over their mission, structure and financing.

Once he became speaker in 1995, Mr. Gingrich’s support loomed large as the companies sought to shore up flagging confidence among the Republicans and bolster the case for home ownership, officials said.

“Whenever you could get Republicans who supported you, it was important, and the more prominent the Republican, the better,” said William Maloni, a senior vice president at Fannie Mae until 2004. “Newt would have been important.”

Mr. Gingrich’s senior advisers were important as well, with a handful of his aides and confidants going on to work for Freddie and Fannie or for lobbying groups that represented them. Of particular significance, several officials said, was Fannie’s hiring of Arne L. Christenson, Mr. Gingrich’s chief of staff, as a top executive and lobbyist in 1999.

“From their perspective, hiring someone who could beef up their Republican credentials made perfect sense,” said Jack Howard, policy director for Mr. Gingrich at the time. Mr. Christenson did not return a call seeking comment.

In a showdown critical to the companies’ fortunes, Mr. Gingrich played an important behind-the-scenes role in helping block a proposal in 1995 that would have forced Fannie and Freddie — rather than taxpayers — to pay potentially billions of dollars in increased fees, according to interviews and press accounts at the time.

At the time, Representative Jim Leach, a senior Republican from Iowa who led the House banking committee and was a fierce critic of Fannie and Freddie, wanted the companies to pay the bulk of about $4.8 billion to finance a reserve for ailing savings and loan institutions.
…

Bloomberg
Gingrich Ties to Fannie, Freddie Said to Extend to Speaker Days
February 04, 2012, 7:07 PM EST
By Eric Engleman

Feb 4 (Bloomberg) — Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich had ties to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae during his time as speaker of the House from 1995 to 1999, adding to questions about the nature of his relationship with the home mortgage companies.

Gingrich, then a U.S. representative from Georgia, visited Ireland in 1998 on a trip that was partly sponsored by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the New York Times reported today. Gingrich also helped thwart measures that would have boosted fees paid by the two mortgage companies, the newspaper reported.

Gingrich’s consulting work for Freddie Mac after he left Congress has emerged as a theme in the Republican presidential nomination campaign and drawn criticism from rivals. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have drawn about $153 billion in taxpayer aid since losses from risky mortgages caused them to be brought under U.S. conservatorship in September 2008.

Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond didn’t immediately respond to an e-mail requesting comment on his connections to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae during his time in Congress. Douglas Duvall, a Freddie Mac spokesman, declined to comment. Andrew Wilson, spokesman for Fannie Mae, didn’t immediately respond to an e- mail seeking comment.
…

D.C. Current | SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 2012
Fannie Mae’s Fire Sale
By JIM MCTAGUE | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

Fannie Mae will soon start auctioning off foreclosed houses and pools of non-performing loans in bulk. How to buy a cut-rate rental property.

Fire sale! The Federal Housing Finance Agency has approved a big residential real-estate auction at Fannie Mae to help the mortgage giant unload its inventory of 122,616 foreclosed houses. For the first time, the regulators are permitting Fannie Mae to sell houses in bulk. The test sale also will include pools of non-performing loans.

Corporations, partnerships and non-profits with at least $5 million in assets are expected to flock to the pilot auction, which hasn’t been scheduled yet. But there also will be a place for individuals with incomes exceeding $200,000; couples with combined incomes over $300,000; and individuals and couples with a net worth of more than $1 million, excluding their primary homes.

All of the bidders will have to have a proven track record as successful landlords because the properties can’t be flipped. Buyers will have to rent out the houses for a yet unspecified term of years. Many of the houses to be included in the test auction are occupied by tenants. These are persons who had been renting the units when their landlords defaulted on the property’s mortgage. Federal and state laws protect them from eviction.

There is a way into the auction for novices who want to get into the rental-housing game: They will be permitted to form partnerships with rental pros. Information about bidder registration, is available on the FHFA’s Website (www.fhfa.gov), under the REO Asset Disposition link. Additionally, individual investors can buy houses one at a time through Fannie Mae’s Home Path program, which includes financing (www.homepath.com). Last week, there were 261 properties in Atlanta selling for less than $100,000. In Las Vegas, there were 370 such properties.

Fannie Mae hasn’t yet announced if it will provide financing to the winning bidders. This could be a problem for many investors without access to the capital markets because bankers remain reluctant to lend money and, in real estate, leveraged investing is the name of the game. According to the FHFA, the assets in the pilot auction will come from the metropolitan areas hardest-hit by the housing bust. This would include Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Fort Lauderdale, Las Vegas and Los Angeles.

Although the housing market generally appears to be bottoming, “Places that fell off the cliff are going to take the longest time to recover,” says David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. So in addition to deep pockets, investors should possess a long-term time horizon.
…