The Housing Bubble

Lower prices even if that means total financial collapse?
Really.

Lower prices even if that means 50% unemployment?
Really?

Lower prices, even if that means we get a Napoleon, Stalin or Hitler?
Really?

The history of global super powers suffering economic collapse is a truly ugly one. And that is what you want, because it lowers prices of houses?

I’m here pandering for “not total financial wipe out and collapse into multi-decade long Greater Depression”.

Sorry if that offends anyone.

Maybe it is inevitable. Maybe there is a chance to avoid it by pulling our collective head out and start doing the exact opposite of everything we’ve been doing for the last 5 decades.

But no. Too many are still too concerned with their own personal profit to be concerned with silly things like whether my kids should have to suffer the brunt of the punishment that accompanies the party that occurred for decades before they were born.

“Lower prices even if that means total financial collapse?”

How did you dream up the notion that lower housing prices would equate to total financial collapse? Couldn’t we use Las Vegas as a laboratory? Their economy is slower, but it hasn’t collapsed, housing notwithstanding to the contrary.

Lower prices mean total financial collapse? Really? REALLY?

Lower prices mean 50% unemployment? Really? REALLY?

Lower prices means we get a Napoleon, Stalin or Hitler? Really?REALLY?

Lower prices mean economic collapse? Really? REALLY?

Your bullshit game is done here Darrell.

The history of global super powers suffering economic collapse is a truly ugly one. And that is what you want, because it lowers prices of houses?

It’s different this time.

“we get a Napoleon, Stalin or Hitler?”

We already got all three with “The One” in the white house. Keep getting my memes blurred though, can’t remember if he is a fascist or a communist. Better watch more TeeVee and read more Drudge Report so I can stay informed.

“we get a Napoleon, Stalin or Hitler?”

Bush = Napolean
Stalin = Obama
Gingrich = Hitler

I am rooting for Gingrich.

The sad thing is, there are lots of Darrels out there. They pick up these MSM talking points, and as soon as someone makes the assertion that “global catastrophe will happen if we don’t do X” they :

1) assume the person making the assertion is somehow omniscient because they are on TV and is therefore correct

2) convince themselves they have to let everyone know about how we have to do what the people who “know what’s going on” say we should do.

If you try to have a rational discussion, you can see the thoughts just spinning in little circles in their head. Instead of trying to isolate each point, evaluate the merit, and assign a positive or negative value to the point, they just hear the words, then spin out of context back into some talking point and confuse themselves on what it is you are even discussing.

You guys will laugh, but I have been working on a web app to target exactly this problem in peoples personal lives and in the business setting. The goal is to be able to assign logical value to arguments in a collaborative environment, and establish quantifiable reputation for those who actually know what they are talking about, then use that data to score viewpoints and suggestions. Almost like an online debate scoring system. I’ll post the link when I release the public alpha.

The goal is to be able to assign logical value to arguments in a collaborative environment

Sounds cool but won’t the concept mostly appeal to people who are already logical and discerning? I have a friend that told me “you can tell me all the facts you want but I’m not going to listen to them.”

there are lots of Darrels out there

Darrel makes some good points and has the guts enough to promote some ideas that are unpopular on the HBB - some I agree with and some I don’t. But hey, not everyone can be like me and be able to write stuff that everyone always agrees with.

Did you notice Darrell never answered my question?

You guys will laugh, but I have been working on a web app to target exactly this problem in peoples personal lives and in the business setting. The goal is to be able to assign logical value to arguments in a collaborative environment, and establish quantifiable reputation for those who actually know what they are talking about, then use that data to score viewpoints and suggestions. Almost like an online debate scoring system. I’ll post the link when I release the public alpha.

I’d like to offer a recommendation for our mathguy. He found what was going wrong with a web project that I’ve been working on. And he’s going to help us fix it. What’s more, he spotted a potential page display problem that would have been a real embarrassment when this site went live.

So, props to the mathguy!

Darrel makes some good points and has the guts enough to promote some ideas that are unpopular on the HBB - some I agree with and some I don’t.

Oh, I concur. Even though I disagree or push on some of his ideas, his tenacity has made me think. That is always valuable.

But it bums me out that he bought Paulson’s end-of-the-world schtick hook, line, and sinker.

But it bums me out that he bought Paulson’s end-of-the-world schtick hook, line, and sinker.

I’ll never buy that Paulson’s line either.

Please let us know when it’s out, mathguy? Would love to take a look.

Voodoo, er, supply side economics destroyed all that 30 years ago.

We’re living in the future that was sold out.

I have seen the future and it is Foxconn City.

and it is Foxconn City.

Hopefully we won’t get the anti-suicide nets.

Back! …to the 19th and half century!

Here is an interesting (well, it is to me) perspective on unaffordable housing and whether or not house prices, if left on their own, will gravitate to “affordable” price ranges.

As many of you know I lived many years in Mexico City. In Mexico there is no equivalent of the NAR, in fact most house and apartment sales are private transactions, often done via an ad in the paper. There never was EZ credit, and when I lived there mortgage rates hovered in the mid 20% range and there is no MID.

What is interesting is that when I lived down there, housing was even more unaffordable than it ever was in the US. The only hope most middle class Mexicans could have for owning their own apartment or house was to sign up for subsidized “casas de interes social”, with its decades long waiting lists. These homes were in the boondocks, often resulting a multi hour bus rides to get to work.

What was also interesting is that houses and apartments were passed from generation to generation and were seldom sold upon mom and dad’s passing away, which perhaps kept supply low and prices high.

Fast forward to the present. Single family homes “in the city” command prices we would associate with the Bay Area or DC. Yet the average wage for a white collar worker is under 2000 USD per month.

Another major difference I see is that in the US we build “nice houses” in the boonies (exurbia). Exurban Mexican houses are “humble” to say the least and probably wouldn’t be considered inhabitable by US standards and codes.

supply side economics destroyed all that 30 years ago.

It’s because we didn’t do enough of it because of too many regulations, Acorn and foodstamps. We need to re-direct more money from the $10 an hour jobbers (the moochers) to the very rich (the producers and job creators). That way the rich producers (who create $10 an hour jobs) will have more money and thus be able to have even more power to funnel more money towards themselves (and create jobs). After that, the money will trickle down to the stores and businesses that the rich own. (creating $10 an hour jobs)

The problem is taxes and not enough $10 an hour jobs. The billionaire (who creates those jobs) pays way to much tax (thus hurting job creation). The job creators should pay the same percentage of income tax as their employees making $10 an hour. Just because the $10 an hour employee is lazy does not mean he should pay less tax than the producer who created his $10 an hour job.

Another way to create more $10 an hour jobs is to cut the benefits included in those jobs. There is no reason a company should be responsible providing nanny-state benefits to employees who are too lazy to buy the benefits they can’t afford because they have a cellphone and a flat screen TV. A company’s job is to make money and not be a nanny. If the $10 an hour employee complains he should be fired because the hate he has in his heart for the rich (who create jobs) is a terrible thing. It is socialism.

Excellent three paragraph summary of 21st century “free market” American capitalism, Rio. That meme is bulletproof.

Rio. That meme is bulletproof.

Thank you.
(But next time I’ll throw in “free-markets”, “envy”, “God”, I’ll slam Iran and I’ll say why I’m “severely” conservative.)

What is interesting is that when I lived down there, housing was even more unaffordable than it ever was in the US.

That’s true in pretty much all of the 1st world, and a surprising amount of the third world. It’s odd given that most of these countries have no Fannie or Freddie equivalents, and no NAR.

A conundrum: Why are houses more expensive in countries where there are no Fannie, Freddie or NAR equivalents?

Nice summation. I totally agree.

Awesomely written, Rio!

There is only one part that I would take exception with:

The job creators should pay the same percentage of income tax as their employees making $10 an hour.

It would be a nice start if they would pay the same percentage of tax as their employees! Currently, they pay far less.

Sure, I would like to see them pay a higher percentage, but I’d be willing to start with parity.

Some are fine with a system where a band of wealthy kleptocrats is made whole on its gambling losses when it bets poorly.

To each his own.

Some are fine with a system where a band of wealthy kleptocrats is made whole on its gambling losses when it bets poorly.

To each his own.

My own is saving the system- which had worked pretty spectacularly well until Reagan instituted the wealth-disparity tax system and banking deregulation- and punishing those at the top who abused their positions of trust. Attempting to punish all the little people involved is both impossible and self-destructive to our system, and generally used as a way to divert attention and blame from those ‘professionals’ at the top, who helped orchestrate the whole fiasco, and profited wildly from it.

If saving our system means we won’t get to snap up super-cheap houses and stocks, so be it. History really is filled with horror stories about what happens when countries and empires collapse, just look at what happened during the last great depression. It’s not alarmist hyperbole, it’s an understanding of, and respect for, history.

I’m with Darrell in Phoenix on this… the extend and pretend game is being done to save the banks. The banks are too big to fail and can’t take the losses, so prop up prices, extend losses for years in order to give the banks time to repair bank balance sheets, etc.

I want a house for my family that I can easily afford. However, it doesn’t do us any good if the economy is in such a bad state and unemployemnt so high that I can’t retain a job to afford even that. That is exactly what will happen if too many banks collapse.

Our economy lives on credit. No credit, no businesseses… that was what 2008 was all about. Velocity of money dropping to zero because banks didn’t trust anyone due to counterparty risk, economy collapsing, “tanks in the streets”, rioting, etc.

I’m not saying it’s fair, but at least my children are still in school, my wife and I still have good-paying jobs, and there is hope in the near future of being able to buy a house we’ll actually enjoy living in at a price we can afford without too much struggle.

I can’t believe so many of you guys bought Paulson’s end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it scenario.

I still think it’s alarmist BS intentionally used to stampede the herd in their direction that they wanted it to go.

Speaking of bad gambling debt…

MARKETS
FEBRUARY 14, 2012

Boos, and Backers, for ‘Volcker Rule’
BY SCOTT PATTERSON, SERENA NG AND VICTORIA MCGRANE

Foreign governments and financial-industry giants lined up Monday to throw one last roundhouse punch at a proposed rule that aims to limit risk-taking by U.S. banks.

Dozens of international banks, foreign officials, insurance companies, law firms and money managers petitioned U.S. regulators ahead of a midnight-Monday deadline to delay or water down the pending restrictions on banks’ trading activities. The rule, which is to go into effect in July, is called the Volcker rule after a leading proponent, former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker.
…

+1

I can’t believe so many of you guys bought Paulson’s end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it scenario.

I can’t believe that you don’t see what is happening in Greece or even Syria right now as a parallel to what would happen in a collapse here… and US citizens have many more guns than in Greece or Syria. Hell, Katrina should have showed everyone what collapse will look like in the US. Why risk it? Are people that unhappy currently, that desperate for the current system to collapse that they would be willing to put their family at risk?

Again, not saying it’s fair, and it doesn’t stop me from preparing for an unlikely SHTF/EOTWAWKI event, but honestly my family doesn’t need martial law, suspension of Posse Comitatus, and FEMA coming in and taking over because of a series of bad bets by Too Big To Fail Banks related to housing and the collapse of the financial sector.

You think State Troopers in Mass look like Nazis ready to invade Poland now (shameless Departed plug), wait until the army or marines show up in battle dress with full auto M4’s and Abrams, Bradley, and Stryker armored vehicles.

I still think it’s alarmist BS intentionally used to stampede the herd in their direction that they wanted it to go.

I agree it was used that way. But the threat they were using was real.

Or do you think the housing/credit bubble was much ado about nothing, and really not that damaging to our financial system?

I still think it’s alarmist BS intentionally used to stampede the herd in their direction that they wanted it to go.

Right, because Bush was such a good actor that when he said “This sucker could go down”, it was a lie that was meant to convince the sheeple to accept the biggest bailout in this country’s history…

When Hank Paulson was attributed with having gotten on his knees in front of Nancy Pelosi to beg her for bipartisan support, that was all an act.

Get real… there was real panic, real fear. We stared into the abyss and didn’t like what was there.

wait until the army or marines show up in battle dress with full auto M4’s and Abrams, Bradley, and Stryker armored vehicles

No worries, I’m sure that a militia of overweight Bubbas with their rifles and shotguns will be able to take them down.

I can’t believe that you don’t see what is happening in Greece or even Syria right now as a parallel to what would happen in a collapse here…

Anyone who thinks that social and political upheaval in the US and Syria would look even remotely similar is very very confused.

People are accustomed to at least a relative rule of law here. Syria?? Really? It is probably not worth continuing this conversation based on your very first sentence.

Right, because Bush was such a good actor that when he said “This sucker could go down”, it was a lie that was meant to convince the sheeple to accept the biggest bailout in this country’s history…Right

I did not say that Bush was a good actor. I believe Bush was probably genuinely afraid, but he was simply regurgitating what his Goldman handlers told him to believe. Follow the money—that well-placed fear was worth $20B to Goldman.

Paulson? Yes, I believe he was an excellent actor, and for an excellent cause (Goldman).

Note that just because there was real fear does not mean that their forecasts for what the future would look like were _remotely_ accurate.

Remember, these are the very same people who could not see the bubble right in front of their faces. Their ability to understand the CURRENT economic situation, much less a possible FUTURE economic outcome is highly suspect.

Here’s the problem: people can make all the assertions they want, either about rosy scenarios or apocalyptic scenarios which would result from making from making that small group which made bad bets pay for their bad bets themselves.

I have no problem with people making assertions. What I need to see in order to be able to judge which scenario is more likely to be correct is EVIDENCE.

Now, people who don’t understand statistics seem to believe that statistics can tell you whether one thing causes another. That is false. Statistics cannot tell you whether one thing causes another. It can only tell you how closely correlated various factors are.

So - with economics, we have graphs, historical evidence, and statistics/correlations.

IMHO, the big financial companies ought to be broken up. Too Big To Fail leads to corruption and cronyism and though it’s a quaint concept to some, injustice. Practically, it allows a small group of people the ability to hold an economy hostage.

Many small banks have failed during the Great Recession. It’s time to start dismantling the big financial companies. The government should be in charge. The populace elects the government. Letting companies get so big that they can buy politicians (who are willing prostitutes, granted) means that unelected nomenklatura are the ones really running government. That’s not the way the United States should be.

Anyone who thinks that social and political upheaval in the US and Syria would look even remotely similar is very very confused.

People are accustomed to at least a relative rule of law here. Syria?? Really? It is probably not worth continuing this conversation based on your very first sentence.

The difference between Greece and Syria is a matter of degree… the current government of Greece is unwilling to use the level of force that the government of Syria is willing to use on it’s own population. Of course, the British SAS as a destabilizing force in Syria isn’t helping any and probably escalated the violence to current levels. Having said that, it can and most likely will escalate in Greece if it continues.

If you think it can’t happen here, then you are sadly mistaken. The Kent State Massacre in the 60’s showed the US was perfectly willing to use deadly force against the “opposition”.

Rule of law? Really? Here is your “rule of law” during a breakdown: officers convicted in post katrina shooting

and this:
City without rules

And this is what disorder looks like in Athens… tell me the difference if you are an average citizen trying to support your family and there is no food and no fuel and no income?
Athens looting

I did not say that Bush was a good actor. I believe Bush was probably genuinely afraid, but he was simply regurgitating what his Goldman handlers told him to believe. Follow the money—that well-placed fear was worth $20B to Goldman.

ISTR reading former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder’s press secretary saying that GWB was very limited in the brains department. So limited that the German government had difficulty dealing with him. They had to avoid using big words and complex concepts.

The banks are too big to fail and can’t take the losses, so prop up prices, extend losses for years in order to give the banks time to repair bank balance sheets, etc.

The banks need real financial terrorism laws imposed on them before another penny is wasted. Jail for the criminals at all levels. The paper trail is there. Easy.

Gerhard Schroeder’s press secretary saying that GWB was very limited in the brains department.

I have had few dealings with Germans. I tell you It’s difficult to understand Zenglish at times…..

Get real… there was real panic, real fear. We stared into the abyss and didn’t like what was there.

If the abyss were truly an awful thing there would be serious laws in place to prevent getting close especially after the fact, but no serious laws yet. Right?

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0074958/quotes

‘But, man, you’re never going to get any truth from us. We’ll tell you anything you want to hear. We’re all you know. You’re beginning to believe the illusions we’re spinning here. You do whatever the tube tells you! You dress like the tube, you eat like the tube, you raise your children like the tube, you even *think* like the tube! You’re beginning to believe that the tube is reality and your own lives are unreal.’

‘Right now, there is a whole, an entire generation that never knew anything that didn’t come out of this tube. This tube is the gospel, the ultimate revelation; this tube can make or break presidents, popes, prime ministers; this tube is the most awesome goddamn propaganda force in the whole godless world, and woe is us if it ever falls into the hands of the wrong people, and that’s why woe is us that Edward George Ruddy died. Because this company is now in the hands ofthe Communications Corporation of America. And when the 12th largest company in the world controls the most awesome goddamn propaganda force in the whole godless world, who knows what shit will be peddled for truth on this network?’

This tube is the gospel, the ultimate revelation; this tube can make or break … popes,

It didn’t work for the Russians.

“It didn’t work for the Russians.”

Visit the comments sections of other on-line news sites. It’s working damn near perfectly here.

Ran in and the read the hbb before running back out:

Well I’ve got to say one thing about the above thread. It’s obvious many of us are now in the negotiating stage.

IE: Me and my wife have good jobs so if I do nothing to shake the tree, everything will be ok, right? Right?

Well I’ve got to say one thing about the above thread. It’s obvious many of us are now in the negotiating stage.

Well past negotiating and into acceptance. TPTB have and will continue to do everything in their power to maintain the status quo and prop up asset prices, including housing. Everything that has been done was done to support the TBTF banks.

Here in Mass., that has translated into prices that are still stubbornly high for anything worth buying in a desirable location. In and around Boston (aka where the high-paying jobs are), prices have increased in many communities and neighborhoods (Cambridge, Wellsley, etc.). In the extended burbs, prices have come down, but it’s mostly the distressed properties that are at reasonable levels. When a decent property comes on the market at a reasonable price, it often gets multiple offers in a matter of days.

Bottom line for my family is that prices for short sales and foreclosures are at levels that make them affordable given our income (say 2x gross). Our quality of life is severely impacted by where we currently live and after 7+ years there, it is time to move into a house that has the space and amenities we want and can afford. It’s time to move to a neighborhood where my family feels safe and secure and neighbors are at a similar socio-economic level.

We are now actively looking for a single family. I’m not concerned with prices dropping further because price is no longer the issue, quality of life is. The tech space continues to do well in Boston and there is no lack of job opportunities for me (income security such as it is).

This is acceptance that the system isn’t going to collapse and that timing the bottom isn’t worth years of poor quality of life due to sub-par housing. This is acceptance that TPTB managed to keep things going for much longer than I originally thought and will most likely continue to do so. This is acceptance that, like Japan, we’re due for a long, slow grind down with no end in sight… and if it all comes crashing down from here? Well, that’s why I have guns and gold.

DarrellTard?

I like it.

dats not fair i tell ya not fair…i want my fire sale price, move in ready cream puff home too….

“…i want my fire sale price, move in ready cream puff home too…”

We have had two of those so far, both purchased at the end of brutal housing busts. Perhaps with endless patience, you will also get an opportunity. But I am guessing extend-and-pretend plus private equity rentals will keep renting the optimal choice for at least another decade.

I’m not sure anything is going to help someone that wants to be a DJ in New York.

Low demand, low wage job in a high demand, high cost city = trouble regardless of the macro econ condition.

“…i want my fire sale price, move in ready cream puff home too…”

We have had two of those so far,

How many houses do you have to snap up in a lifetime? Or are you a serial real estate speculator?

Yes, Id prefer a reality-based depression to a fake TBTF scam of an economy.

Yeah but you can’t see the invisible hand of the free market cus it’s invisible.

…cus it’s invisible been severed.

…cus it’s been severed.

LOL, awesome one, GS!

Rule of law? Really? Here is your “rule of law” during a breakdown

Read Dave Eggers book Zeitoun, about Katrina. Eye-opening.

Yes, breakdown can and has happened here.

No laughter intended.

no…but the g-d of the bible is to me nothing but a glorified Capt Kirk who came with his ship+crew and populated our planet…

I ask because your choice of spelling (”g-d”) is Jewish. Maybe its a New York thing as well?

Here is why i asked (from wikipedia):

“The words “God” and “Lord” (used for the Hebrew Adonai) are often written by many Jews as “G-d” and “‘L-rd’” as a way of avoiding writing any name of God. In Deuteronomy 12:3-4, the Torah exhorts one to destroy idolatry, adding, “you shall not do such to the Lord your God.” From this verse it is understood that one should not erase or blot out the name of God. The general halachic opinion is that this only applies to the sacred Hebrew names of God, but not to other euphemistic references; there is a dispute whether the word “God” in English or other languages may be erased.”

You’re incorrigible!

Speaking of incorrigible….

“Realtor caught robbing church, charged with embezzlement”

http://blog.al.com/live/2011/11/mobile_real_estate_agent_charg.html

Imagine that. ReaItors will even rip off a church.

Prostitution ring client list to be turned over
by ed white

Federal prosecutors were ordered Friday to turn over a so-called “black book” computer disc containing more than 30,000 names allegedly linked to a Florida-based prostitution ring that operated in Chicago and other cities.
…
Court records examined by the Detroit Free Press say Laurie Carr in an e-mail named as one client a lobbyist for the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors, who arranged for Laurie Carr to attend one of President George W. Bush’s State of the Union addresses.

Lucien Salvant, a spokesman for the NAR, told the Free Press that the lobbyist was friends with the Carrs and did arrange for Laurie Carr to attend the address. But he declined to comment on whether the lobbyist used the escort service.

“We’ve talked to him about it. It didn’t come up, and I won’t ask him about it because that’s his private life,” Salvant told the paper.

Realtors, Pimps, Hookers, Cash….. seems typical doesn’t it?

Realtors, Pimps, Hookers, Cash….. seems typical doesn’t it?

Add some cocaine and you have a party…

This was discussed in The Inside Job. Spitzer of all people talked about it. Many of the big dogs have large appetites, including hookers and blow. If you want to shut down people or want to get them to turn over details, bringing in vice squads would be an effective way to proceed.

If you want to shut down people or want to get them to turn over details, bringing in vice squads would be an effective way to proceed.

Indeed it is.

Because people who patronize the hookers and blow vendors have a tendency to shoot their mouths off. And that can come back and bite them bigtime.

When it comes to amusing the Big Dogs, hookers and blow are the least of it. And it’s a VERY insular circle; vice squads wouldn’t have a chance.

And no, Spitzer wasn’t a Big Dog.

ymmv=your mother may vomit?

Forget the articles…. look at the facts, reality and your own observations.

Not sure whether to laugh or cry with your naivete. A political stunt just before the election and you take it by heart……

On Republicans voting against ending tax breaks for companies that off-shore jobs:
A political stunt just before the election and you take it by heart……

If it were a political stunt by the Democrats, how would it change the fact that the Republicans voted AGAINST ending tax-breaks for off-shoring jobs?

Do you mean the Republicans would have voted FOR ending tax breaks to companies that off-shore jobs if it were not a Democratic political stunt?

Or:
Did the Republicans vote against ending tax breaks for off-shoring jobs as a political stunt to get more campaign money from the companies off-shoring jobs?

Did the Republicans vote against ending tax breaks for off-shoring jobs as a political stunt to get more campaign money from the companies off-shoring jobs?

That’s the one.

And I truly believe that the Dems did the for that reason, too. Extortion has many names.

So helping J6P get their jobs back is extortion?

I do believe you’ve just made my point for me.

Drudge usually has at least one article about food stamps or some other “outrage” commited by the Lucky Duckies. Last week it was government cheese buying cellphones for them.

This meme will never die. See also Thomas Frank’s “What’s The Matter With Kansas”.

“What’s The Matter With Kansas”

Best book ever.

God, Guns and Butter.

2 out of 3. Kansas is doing fine. Thank you very much.

Banana republics with easily persuaded populations are always good with your type.

And the GOP needs that 10% to win. They will revolt if Romney the Mormon is the candidate.

I’m revolted already.

Santorum is right on the social issues.

For instance, he recently stated, “birth control opens doors into the sexual realm that shouldn’t be opened.”

He’s right. We need to get rid of all birth control. It’s anti-God.

——-We need to get rid of all birth control. It’s anti-God.

Yes just look at Appalachia, or Detroit they agree with you…

But it wont hurt as much as 8 years of Bush pounding.

Don’t misunderstand me, I’m no fan of Obama, especially since his Dec 31 surprise. I just don’t see the GOP producing a candidate that could beat him.

In a way, the GOP has painted itself into a corner. If they nominate a moderate (or worse, a Mormon moderate), the Fundies will revolt. If they nominate a Fundy along the lines of Perry, Santorum or Palin then the moderates will revolt.

But it wont hurt as much as 8 years of Bush pounding.

I am not sure. It will hurt equally as bad. Soothing words can only go so far…..

“But it wont hurt as much as 8 years of Bush pounding.”

BA DUMP BA!

I think it will be more like 2004, with Obama winning by a healthy margin, but with a strong red state/blue state division.

So why even have an election? Everything about this country is just depressing as hell.

Like I said, “some Fundies will vote for Obama”. Most will either stay home or vote for a fellow Fundie in the Constitution Party.

I’m hoping for Palin vrs Clinton.

I’m hoping for Palin vrs Clinton.

Will there be a swimsuit component to the competition?

Ewwww..I just pictured Hilary in a swimsuit.

Bill was there, too.

Sarah Palin is hot.

Sarah Palin is hot.

Sure she is — from the neck up. But let’s see her in one of those swimsuits that are common on the beaches of Rio. Then we’ll have a true idea of just how hot she is.

[Cue up our Rio friend in Brasil, high-tailing it to the beach where Sarah's working on her tan.]

Sarah Palin is hot.

Sure she is — from the neck up…..

But that’s what I’m talking about. The brain is the most sensual organ in the body and Sarah Palin’s brain just drives me crazzzzyyyyyyy!!

Michele Bachmann is hot.

Yes!

Sarah Palin is hot.
Michele Bachmann is hot.

Only when they are not talking.

I love it when they talk. Their eloquence is sexy. Especially Sara. I’m sure I’m not the only male in America who, when Palin dropped her first wink, sat up a little straighter on the couch and said, “Hey, I think she just winked at me.” And her smile. By the end, when she clearly knew she was doing well, it was so sparkling it was almost mesmerizing. It sent little starbursts through the screen and ricocheting around the living rooms of America. This is a quality that can’t be learned; it’s either something you have or you don’t, and man, she’s got it.

This is a quality that can’t be learned; it’s either something you have or you don’t, and man, she’s got it.

And that’s about all she’s got.

“This is a quality that can’t be learned; it’s either something you have or you don’t,”

I don`t know about that. I know some women who you would look at and say… She is gorgeuos. But after you know them, how ugly they are sends shivers up your spine. Others I have known through the years didn`t look very attractive when I met them and were very much so after I got to know them. But I guess that is a quality that can’t be learned either.

This is not a comment on these women you guys are talking about one way or the other.

Slim, you missed the reference.

Oxy gets it.

Palin still needs to take voice lessons the way Thatcher did. I heard part of her CPAC talk and holy moly was she screechin’.

Palin still needs to take voice lessons the way Thatcher did. I heard part of her CPAC talk and holy moly was she screechin’.

Take it from someone who’s had a bit of vocal training: The important thing is to be teachable. This includes the willingness to accept corrective feedback.

Alas, Palin seems like the type who knows everything already. She’d be a difficult one to have as a voice student.

You guys are SO freaking gullible. Take away the hairpieces, the extensions, the lighting, the layers upon layer of #3 pancake, the fake eyelashes and tooth bondo, and both your hotties are hard-eyed harpies.

“…both your hotties are hard-eyed harpies.”

For the record, the layers upon layer of #3 pancake never fooled my jaundiced eye for a minute.

There is no secret and and nothing dark about the status quo.

Asians generally are smarter, work harder and get into better schools than children from other demographic groups. I met a Chinese fellow last week who had perfect SAT scores. I asked him about whether he prepared for the test. It turns out that he did pretty well on the practice SAT test, but for good measure, he got a hold of copies of the last ten SAT tests that were administered and practiced some more answering them. This story is not an anomaly.

“Admitting unqualified candidates only increases their probability of failing and dropping out of college.”

Brings to mind the policy of giving unqualified buyers subprime mortgages that enable them to buy houses which increase their probability of defaulting and going into foreclosure.

There is no secret and and nothing dark about the status quo.

What I meant is that people don’t want to talk about it, and admit what you just said: That as a group, Asian kids work harder in school. And I have met more than a few white Californians who were unhappy that junior didn’t get into UC, even though he was in the top 10% of his class. The Asian kids have raised the bar at UC and it puts whites in the uncomfortable position that blacks and Hispanics are in: being displaced by a superior performing demographic.

You can make a pretty good argument that someone from a poor background, who went to a crappy inner-city or rural school, and still got really good grades and did quite well on their SAT, may be smarter, and/or show more potential, than some rich kid who scored a little higher, or had a little higher grades, but who also went to the best private or public schools, and had tutors, and a supportive home environment with educational vacations and plenty of books and whatnot.

I just think it should be based on the economic status of the kids, not their skin color. No reason a rich black kid should get preference over a poor white kid, but plenty of reason for any poor kid from a tough background who still did well, to get preference over a rich kid with similar grades and test scores.

May be the only post ever by Alpha that I agreed with.
Once the candidates meet the minimum required to complete the course load is met, Universities should be free to diversify their student body if they chose so.

Alpha, though I agree with your post, I am 99%+ confident that such factors as you mentioned are currently taken into account in UC admissions.

If you can find a shard of evidence to contradict me, I’d be much obliged if you posted it.

I’d be much obliged if you posted it.

I honestly don’t know how they do it, I was just posting that I thought some forms of preferences make sense, and don’t necessarily involve ‘getting people in over their heads’, or picking people just on their skin color, which were the criticisms being made of the current system. They may have been inaccurate criticisms, but I wasn’t making them, just responding to them.

Yes, I was under the impression that AA based on race was simply replaced by AA based “disadvantage,” economic or otherwise.

Yes, I was under the impression that AA based on race was simply replaced by AA based “disadvantage,” economic or otherwise.

I posted a response hours ago but it looks like it’s lost in space.

I have no idea what they base it on, I was just responding to the charge that letting in people based on skin color will result in their being ‘in over their head’.

If indeed it’s based on disadvantage, then the poor kids overcame far more obstacles to get where they are, than did the rich kids with equal or slightly better grades and test scores. I think the disadvantaged should get the preference. Helps break up the oligarchy, if nothing else. Or at least brings in some fresh blood.

UC still requires minimum grades and test scores before “weighting” for other factors. It’s just that “race” can be one of those factors.

Unfortunately for their diversity goals over the last 15 years, the number of AA and Hispanic applicants who have scored in the top 7% scholastically and have 93%ile achievement scores make up only about 16% of the applicant pool.

Throughout my adult life, Affirmative Action only constricted me. I scored 100 out of 100 on a management test after serving as a Field Operations Supervisor for the 1990 Decennial Census.

Vets, women, and other (at that time) minorities got a 10-point bonus. I scored higher, yet they were given the preference. I was screwed because I was born a white male.

I only received one job prospect. My country failed me by its biased, though possibly well-intentioned policies. Government GTFOOML! (get the something out of my life, I guess!)

Realistic economic cost? Half a mil to 1 mil. Really…really.

“I have no idea what they base it on, I was just responding to the charge that letting in people based on skin color will result in their being ‘in over their head’.”

That comment was based on my first-hand experience as a TA at Cal before affirmative action was ended.

Me? Do I sound Republican?

http://www.republicanoffenders.com

Mugz it would have to be a weekend. I’m up in RI now.