Shortcomings In Appreciation
The State Journal Register reports from Illinois. “Though sales remain at a 10-year low, Capital Area Association of Realtors president Todd Musso expects a balance of homes on the market, steady prices and low mortgage rates to increase sales this spring. While local foreclosures have remained well below state and national rates, moving the homes through the real-estate market is vital to restoring a healthy balance of inventory, sales and prices, Musso said. ‘We are trying to monitor the foreclosures a lot closer. They are the shadow inventory,’ he said. ‘Our banks have done a good job of releasing them slowly, so the market doesn’t get bombarded with an oversupply.’”
The News Democrat in Illinois. “Local foreclosed homes are providing buyers more house for their money. Take for instance a home in Swansea that has remained on the market for the past 18 months. The four-bedroom house has 21 /2 bathrooms, fireplace, two-car garage and an in-ground pool. And it can all be yours for $174,000. But local real estate agent Joyce Johnston has had no takers. Her business has listed the property since July 2010, when the asking price was $239,000. Then, it was reduced to $219,000. Later, it was dropped to $187,900 and then reduced again to its current price.”
“‘It’s just one of those things,’ Johnston said.”
The Suburban Journal in Illinois. “Collinsville resident Jacqueline Hoffmann and her three daughters hope the Madison County Foreclosure Mediation program will help them keep their home. Following a divorce and job loss in 2010, Hoffmann has had trouble paying her $1,100 mortgage payment with her income — unemployment and child support. ‘Since I’m unemployed, I don’t have credit enough to get an apartment,’ Hoffmann said. ‘I’ve gone through all the different agencies I can, I’m trying like everything I can. All I need is for my house payment to come down and I’ll be more than happy to pay.’”
The Kansas City Star. “In 2009, with the U.S. economy in the dumps and the housing market at record lows, the Remodeling Show and Metropolitan Lawn & Garden Show brought in about 19,000 visitors, down from 31,000 in the glad times before 2007, said show manager Patrick Riha. But last year, the show attracted 27,000, and this year, the hope is that by the end of the three-day event attendance will again top 30,000.”
“‘Before, a lot of people bought a house and, two years later, they would be talking about (what) they would do with the next house they’d build,’ said Jeff Ogg of Prairie Village, owner of Midwest Skylight. ‘Now, I think … even if people have the money, they’re staying put.’”
The Kansas Reporter. “Kansas’ $50-million slice of a record national settlement of mortgage-abuse claims won’t offer quick relief for beleaguered homeowners, credit experts say. It may take as long as three years to distribute the promised help, according to information on a national attorneys general website. Realtor John Brocker said he fears that fully restoring the financial health of housing markets may take even longer than the three years outlined in the settlement timetable.”
“‘It’s a lot like the crisis in farmland values we had back in the 1970s and ’80s,’ said Brocker, president of Allen County Real Estate in Iola and the Kansas Association of Realtors. ‘Farmland prices didn’t turn around and start coming back up until all the farm foreclosures we had back then cleared the market, and that took years,’ Brocker said.”
From WTHI in Indiana. “It’s $26 billion and its all part of the new mortgage settlement announced by the federal government Thursday. Alexander said she hopes the federal help will not only help homeowners upside down on their mortgages, but also their neighbors. ‘It’s been devastating to watch what’s happened to families in this market … many of which have done everything right,’ said Realtor Kim Alexander, owner of Keller Williams in Carmel and Fishers. ‘Anything that helps homeowners deal with shortcomings as far as appreciation or the ability to move is going to be a good thing in the market,’ she said.”
Fox 8 in Ohio. “A multi-billion dollar settlement between the government and the nation’s top mortgage lenders could help many struggling homeowners stay in their homes. Thursday evening, struggling homeowners heard stories from people in their shoes, trying desperately to save their homes from foreclosure. It was during a meeting, sponsored by Empowering and Strengthening Ohio’s People, a foreclosure-prevention counseling agency. They spoke of ongoing battles, working with their mortgage lenders to find a way to stay in their homes. ‘I couldn’t believe my eyes that I had to appear in court for foreclosure,’ said homeowner Janine Smith.”
“‘I’m walking out of my house every day thinking, ‘Do I have a home to come to when I get back?’ said Euclid resident Tony McNary. ‘Right now, all I’m paying is interest, and I’m not really paying my house down, so in 30 years, if I get to keep my house, in 30 years from now…I would’ve paid over 300-thousand dollars for a bungalow,’ McNary said.”
The Post Dispatch in Missouri. “About 20,000 Missourians who lost their homes to foreclosure could be eligible for checks of roughly $2,000 under a nationwide settlement. Homeowners who want to refinance under the deal will have to apply through the five banks. That raises a red flag with Clayton lawyer Greg White, who represents homeowners in foreclosure. He noted that the banks’ system for modifying mortgages has been a mess of lost paperwork and delays. ‘I think they’re going to drag their feet for three or four more years until people forget about it,’ he said.”
The Niles Star in Michigan. “Niles area homeowners might have a reason to smile for the first time in a while. Single-family residential home prices and sales are trending upward for the first time since the housing bubble burst around five years ago. ‘We are still down from the peak years of four or five years ago, but, over the last four to six months, at least at our office, we are seeing things improve,’ said Roger Tracey, of Remax/Modern Realty in Niles. ‘My guess is that it will take four to five years before we get back to where we were.’”
“Niles Realtor Paul Crouch, of Cressy and Everett Real Estate, said area home prices are being held in check by the large number of foreclosures on the market. This week, Crouch saw what he considers a good bank-owned home listed for $30,500. The same home sold for around $100,000 in 2005. ‘A third of the sales are bank-owned properties and what that has done is make buyers think they can offer 50 cents on the dollar to just anyone,’ Crouch said. ‘It’s a good time to buy, but not a good time to sell.’”
“All I need is for my house payment to come down and I’ll be more than happy to pay.’”
All I need is a couple bushel baskets full of cash and I’ll be fine too. Wish in one hand and shit in the other and see what fills up quicker Mrs. Hoffman.
” if I get to keep my house, in 30 years from now…I would’ve paid over 300-thousand dollars for a bungalow,’ McNary said.”
this is hilarious… well duh!, what do you think you were signing at closing???
What was he thinking? He was thinking on dumping the house on another fool, a Greater Fool, in a few years for a 30%+ profit. Then he would have patted himself on his back for his fiscal acumen, and either cashed out or traded up (probably the latter). Why do you think he went interest-only? People went I.O. since they wanted to pay the minimum while they sat on the house while the price went up. It was a form of squatting, which is always temporary.
Alas, reality intervened and said that HE was the Greater Fool. So he probably wants a do-over.
It looks like there are far more people interested in preserving or recovering their fake house values, than there are people interested in buying cheap houses.
IMO, what matters more is the ratio of empty houses to buyers.
http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/money/consumer/troubleshooter/latest-data-reveals-43000-homes-now-vacant-in-cuyahoga-county
‘The latest numbers released by NEO CANDO are not promising: 43,000 properties in Cuyahoga County and Cleveland are now vacant, 7,300 of those properties are now owned by a bank.’
“Thirty-four thousand properties in Cleveland have been touched by foreclosure since 2006. That’s about 20 percent,” said NEO CANDO research associate Michael Schramm. “Sale prices in Cleveland have dropped 50 percent since 2005.”
Here’s a haircut from my nabe: A few years ago, houses like this one were selling for around $200k. Asking price on this foreclosure creampuff: $53,000.
BTW, I know the former owner. ISTR him saying that he refi-ed the house to keep his printing business going. He was a good printer, but the middle years of the previous decade were not kind to his business.
He’d also gotten divorced a few years before the business slump. Wife was a great lady, but they just weren’t right for each other.
He’s since remarried, and is now living with the new wife out in the country. The foreclosed house has been empty for oh, about three years. I think that may explain the mid-five figures for the pricing.
Whoops. My bad. The asking price on the above creampuff is $58k, not $53k.
‘Scuse me!
That place looks like it would be better torn down than good money paid to repair it…Photo 19 of 21 - is that supposed to be the roof?
Photo #19 shows part of the fascia. Probably needs some new lumber.
Overall, this is a sturdy little house, and it has a lot of life left in it. The place does need a bit of cleaning up and fixing up, but it’s not falling down.
I ride by it just about every day.
It would cost more than $58K to repair it. And it’s not like the house has any worthwhile features. About the only thing I would save are the glass blocks for the bathroom in the new house.
How do you figure? Are you arbitrarily assigning a dollar amount?
Montana, that’s because the market is still broken. There are still far more flippers than real buyers. Those buying today are almost entirely either appreciation-seekers or rental-seekers. Both are trying to monetize a house purchase in a very short period of time. Both are 100% OK with trying to increase the value of the house they are buying, while they are buying it.
That’s another great example of why we’re still in the DENIAL stage of this crash. Most people know only about the bubble price period. They consider THAT to be ‘normal’. So they are constantly trying to “get in” on the action, despite the hard fact that there’s no more action, nor will there be any more action (probably not even in their lifetimes).
Just try to explain to people that housing is NOT an investment.* Otherwise calm and rational people eventually become red in the face about the topic. In usual periods without cultural manias, being one of the only calm persons in a sea of anger, gives you a certain social credential. Not so in this case. The angry, irrational people are still in charge. Their flipper meme is still dominant in the larger mind.
* It isn’t. An investment either produces a return in excess of inflation, or it produces cash flow while holding capital value. A house you buy to live in, does neither. Housing merely tracks incomes, hence merely follows inflation. And if you’re living in it, you’re not gaining rental income from it.
Excellent post.
Thank you.
Roger on the “Excellent post.” Thanks for sharing it on the good ole HBB.
Reminds me, I found a tweet I got back from supposed financial expert, after I’d tweeted him about all the inventory..he informed me that the housing bubble bust was a local thing. You know, Arizona, Vegas, Florida…sheesh.
We have tweety-birds like that here in Arizona. So, your financial expert must be copying our bird calls.
“Our banks have done a good job of releasing them slowly, so the market doesn’t get bombarded with an oversupply.”
Didn’t we used to be a nation of laws? o_O
Again, there’s only one reason that so much shadow inventory is being tolerated: Most buyers are still flippers. They WANT the market to be controlled in order to promote high prices.
I thought the one reason was mark-to-fantasy accounting.
“The $25 billion program will “help around the edges” of the U.S. housing market but won’t have a major impact, said Patrick Newport, economist at IHS Global Insight. He noted that U.S. homeowners owe an estimated $700 billion more than their homes are worth. The deal puts only about $13 billion toward refinancing or reducing debt for such “underwater” homeowners.”
Here is a $700 bn underwater estimate to contrast with the Fed’s oft-cited figure of $7,000 bn ($7t) in U.S. housing losses since the housing bubble collapse. I’m guessing the truth lies somewhere in the middle, but I don’t know how to find it.
“And it can all be yours for $174,000. But local real estate agent Joyce Johnston has had no takers. Her business has listed the property since July 2010, when the asking price was $239,000. Then, it was reduced to $219,000. Later, it was dropped to $187,900 and then reduced again to its current price.”
“‘It’s just one of those things,’ Johnston said.”
This ‘thing’ has a name: Dutch auction
‘A third of the sales are bank-owned properties and what that has done is make buyers think they can offer 50 cents on the dollar to just anyone,’
Glad to hear rational expectations are replacing irrational exuberance as an economic driver.
The flippers kept crowing that they were only finding the market price on the way up; it’s totally sad to see they totally refuse to acknowledge market forces on the way down. Upton Sinclair’s famous quotes should be essential reading for the American HS grad.
‘…make buyers think they can offer 50 cents on the dollar to just anyone,’
This is another dumb Realtor® misconception that needs to be debunked. There was never a law in America that said a prospective buyer couldn’t offer 50 cents or 25 cents or even zero cents on the dollar of a wannabe seller’s list price. What is different nowadays is that 50 cents on the dollar is far more likely to be the best offer the seller will get.
What is different nowadays is that 50 cents on the dollar is far more likely to be the best offer the seller will get.
Ouch!