Bits Bucket for February 16, 2012
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Why buy?
Why rent?
Why not squat??
Lawyers are cheap and Realtors Are Liars -
Good morning everyone!
There has never been a better time to squat.
Squat now or be priced out forever.
There are a thousand squatters a day moving to FL.
The wealthy retiring baby boomers are coming to squat.
My family and I have been squatting in our old 2-bedroom in Midtown since 2009, but feel that the time is right to make a change. We are looking to up-squat into one of the abandoned 4/3 McMansions over in Mortgage Heights. These are quickly being snapped-up by savvy squatters from out of town and they won’t last forever! Our family has outgrown our old starter-squat in Midtown and we want to be closer to the prime shopping areas, entertainment venues and we need room to park our boat. Besides, its our RIGHT to be near these amenities. We were victims of robo-signing!
The word in the Realtor and soccer-mom cirlces is that its all about squatting near the best schools.
That’s smart, because parents can eventually move away once their kids are no longer of school age without facing the burden of selling a home. If you buy near a school, you might find the next generation coming up the pipeline has a dearth of families who might be interested in buying your empty nest. Better to let your landlord/investor deal with that issue.
Fertility
U.S. Birth Rates Hit Record Lows: Is It the Economy?
By Meredith Melnick | @meredithcm | November 18, 2011 |
(Updated) Better birth control? No, it’s the bad economy. The national birth rate dropped for the third straight year, down another 3% in 2010, and experts say it’s because women fear they can’t afford the cost of kids.
According to a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report released Thursday, birth rates dropped in all racial and ethnic groups and in most age groups from 2009 to 2010. But they fell most precipitously in teens and young women: in teens aged 15 to 19, the birth rate declined 9% to 34.3 births per 1,000 females in 2010, the lowest ever reported in the U.S. In women aged 20 to 24, the birth rate fell 6% to 90 births per 1,000 women, also a record low. Births to unmarried women also dropped 4% from 2009 to 2010.
The trend lines closely mirror the economic downturn. U.S. births hit a record-high 4.3 million in 2007. After the official start of the recession in December 2007, births started dipping, and declined steadily in 2008 and 2009. By 2010, U.S. births were down to about 4 million.
“I don’t think there’s any doubt now that it was the recession. It could not be anything else,” Carl Haub, a demographer with the Population Reference Bureau who was not involved in the study, told the AP.
…
“I don’t think there’s any doubt now that it was the recession. It could not be anything else,” Carl Haub, a demographer with the Population Reference Bureau who was not involved in the study, told the AP.
Same thing happened during the latter half of the 1920s, which weren’t exactly roaring for a lot of people. Birth rate continued to drop into the mid-1930s, and then it started moving upward. It took a giant leap upward after WWII.
in teens aged 15 to 19, the birth rate declined 9% to 34.3 births per 1,000 females in 2010, the lowest ever reported in the U.S
Looks like Planned Parenthood is working.
No wonder the Republicans are furious with it.
I think you have to factor in reduced immigration. Native born have had a birth rate of about 1.7, while first gen immigrants are running about 2.5.
i.e. illegals! They go back home, the number of briths crashes.
Why rent? Because metro Denver needs at least a 25% correction to bring the median price/income ratio down to 3.
And because I’m keeping the “going nomad” option open like Bill-in-wherever.
Agreed, as we watch what’s going on in Europe and wondering where those falling dominoes will land, its gonna take a better and better deal to entice us to give up our nomad card too.
Lawyers are cheap
Not sure where you got that idea from! $300/hr is cheap to you? And that’s for a guy with his own shingle—large firms are even higher…
$350 an hr in CA
Commercial Real Estate Lawyer in San Jose, CA = $650/hr
True story: called the law firm to update them with a new email address. A statement arrived indicating our account was dinged for $32.00
A statement arrived indicating our account was dinged for $32.00
WTF??? You can’t even talk to the receptionist without running up billable hours??
WTF??? You can’t even talk to the receptionist without running up billable hours??
And that’s a fact!
I believe that law firm billing software uses 1/10th of an hour intervals, so anything that is done is billed as 6 minutes.
I’m aware of that, and totally ok with that…
What I’m not ok with is being billed for calling with a billing question (e.g. is this bill correct), or a simple change-of-address! That seems quite ridiculous to me.
The billing practices of many law offices are questionable at best. In fact, criminal would be a more accurate way to describe it. My past gf and also a good friend of mine have had to call and have bills reduced because of “errors” in the favor of the attorney. It did not appear to be a mistake, but rather intentional.
And better yet, never work for a lawyer as a contractor, they never pay their bills!
Comment by jeff saturday
2011-10-22 04:33:56
Stolen from
Allan Sherman -(1963) -
Hello Muddah, hello Fadduh, Here I am at Camp Grenada
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2Hx_X84LC0 - 95k
Hello Deadbeat
Hello Squatter
Well at least you, pay for water
That`s a nice car
Where`d you get it?
With the house payment you sixty times forgetted
How you do it?
What`s the deal?
You don`t pay them
And you squeal
That they shouldn`t
Have been givers
Of loans to a man who pizza he delivers
That’s worth a repost tomorrow.
LOVE it!
You had me at “Hello squatter”.
Very good!
It seems as though market optimism over Greek austerity is fairly shaky. I guess not everyone is convinced that the society-wide equivalent of debtor’s prison is the best way to encourage a nation to make good on what it owes?
America can enjoy the same kind of austerity-driven economic contraction, if only the Republicans manage to get Santorum elected.
Feb. 15, 2012, 11:55 p.m. EST
Asia stocks fall as Greece worries weigh
By Sarah Turner, MarketWatch
SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — Asian shares traded lower Thursday, as investors fretted about the possibility of a messy Greek default, although Japanese shares found some support from a relatively weak yen.
The Australian S&P/ASX 200 index (AU:XJO -1.68%) dropped 1.6%, the South Korean Kospi (KR:0100 -1.38%) fell 1.2%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HK:HSI -0.56%) lost 0.6%.
The Shanghai Composite Index (CN:000001 -0.42%) slipped 0.2% and Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average (JP:NIK -0.24%) declined 0.1%.
U.S. shares ended firmly lower on Wednesday, with minutes from the latest Federal Reserve interest-rate meeting dashing hopes for a imminent round of further quantitative easing and as uncertainty lingered over the prospects for Greece.
…
“the society-wide equivalent of debtor’s prison”
Excellent simile.
I see no reason the 99%+ of Americans without direct access to Fed-funded zero percent bailout loans couldn’t enjoy a similar shared future existence in a society-wide version of debtor’s prison. If only we adopted one of the more extreme Republican flavors of fiscal austerity, we could enjoy similar future economic growth rates to those currently experienced by our Greek brethren, while perennially flush Megabanksters snapped up all the assets at fire-sale prices and rented them back to us at exorbitant rates relative to our incomes.
Behold the handwriting on the wall:
EUROPE NEWS
FEBRUARY 15, 2012
Europe’s Growth Woes Worsen
By BRIAN BLACKSTONE, STELIOS BOURAS and CASSELL BRYAN-LOW
An elderly woman begs outside the Bank of Greece headquarters in Athens on Tuesday.
Economic output in Greece and Portugal plunged last year, according to figures released on Tuesday, challenging the prevailing European view that fiscal belt-tightening will foster growth.
Greek gross domestic product fell 7% in the fourth quarter from the year-earlier period, the country’s statistics agency said, bringing the total GDP drop since the end of 2007 to more than 16%. Greece’s statistics service hasn’t issued quarter-to-quarter data for the past several quarters because of methodological problems adjusting for seasonal swings in activity.
Portugal’s decline was milder last quarter—2.7% from a year earlier. But the downturn is accelerating. GDP fell 5.3% in the fourth quarter from the third, at an annualized rate, or 1.3% on a quarterly basis. Portugal’s economy is expected by some economists to contract as much as 3.5% this year.
The steep contractions are fueling criticism of the strict austerity policies adopted across Europe’s periphery in response to the debt crisis. A number of economists argue that continued government spending cuts will make it even harder for the most vulnerable countries to recover.
“The whole nonsensical doctrine of expansionary fiscal consolidation that [former European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet] and the European Commission were talking about, that whole discussion is gone,” said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The austerity debate isn’t confined to the euro zone.
…
Republican flavors of fiscal austerity
Which never seems to include asking for Reagan-era tax rates on the haves and have-mores. But there’s plenty of opportunity in a blind man’s disability or a widow’s fixed-income check.
That’s just commie talk. The job creators need tax cuts. And those non-producers should be turned into Soylent Green.
Not commie. It’s called “running government like a business.”
Thanks for the complement. For the English Nazis in the virtual room, that was a metaphor. If I had said “like a debtor’s prison,” it would have been a simile.
For the English Nazis in the virtual room, that was a metaphor.
Stalking horse!
complement?
Are you baiting the waters?
Go away!
Baitin’…
Everybody keeps arguing back and forth.. Repubs, dems.. socialism, capitalism.. on and on and on. I just wanted to get a quick poll to see how many agree with the following:
1) The housing bubble inflated and peaked due to excessive lending with substandard underwriting and risk management.
2) Major (>50%) amounts of funding to fuel the loose lending came from:
a) the GSE’s Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
b) CDO’s and other bundled mortgage tranches graded AAA by the Big 3 and sold to pension funds
3) The mortgages funneled either individually or in bundles to these major funding sources, when viewed in the context of “traditional” 20% down no greater than 4x verified income would largely never have been made.
4) The losses incurred by the ongoing failure of the mortgages from the bubble have largely been absorbed by the US taxpayer in the form of:
a)Fed “quantitative easing” loans to insolvent ‘preferred’ banks for full face value collateral of CDO’s etc
b) FHA loan guarantees
c) bailout funded losses at the GSEs fannie and freddie.
Again, I know I’m just stating the obvious, but I want to see what there is to be nitpicked about these statements or wholly disagreed with.
Those are all policy factors. Don’t forget the emotional factors i.e.”nesting”, remember the Suzanne Researched It commercial?
How could anyone ever forget that commercial?
Real Estate Morons - Emasculated Mouse Man + Evil Hags
Uploaded by palehorsepalerider on Jun 29, 2008
Here’s a video with subtitles, showing a ball-less emasculated mouse man getting suckered into a gigantic McMansion mortgage by his aggressive manipulative wife and the intrusive goading of a greedy real estate agent. Subtitles clue the viewer into the reality of each moment of this sad and all too true situation. Millions of credit unworthy morons like this, along with criminal mortgage and real estate agents, have created the largest financial disaster in housing / banking history. The only bigger financial debacle of our times is the outstanding derivatives debacle yet to be unleashed onto joe public.
What a venomous hag she is.
Careful there. Arizona Governor Jan Brewer doesn’t like rivals for her title.
Here’s a video with subtitles, showing a ball-less emasculated mouse man getting suckered into a gigantic McMansion mortgage by his aggressive manipulative wife and the intrusive goading of a greedy real estate agent.
+1 LOL!
Don’t forget the emotional factors i.e.”nesting”,
The “nesting” factor is constant over time, so it cannot explain the relatively sudden onset of insanity in the market.
I’m in total agreement, mathguy.
Seems like the nesting factor was under-estimated like Hubble’s Constant was. However, Hubble’s Constant, since it was re-figured, will probably hold for a lot longer than our late, great housing bubble.
The “nesting” factor is constant over time, so it cannot explain the relatively sudden onset of insanity in the market.
The nesting factor is only constant when the external factors are constant. The external factors were not constant during the bubble. Year after year it became harder and harder (more expensive) to buy a house. “Buy now or be priced out forever”, bidding wars and seeing your family “left behind” all kicked the nesting factor into hyperdrive. There was an increasing panic and sense of urgency. The external factors were not constant.
I’m pretty sure none of this could have happened without the Fed & Treasury Dept. tacit support AND non existent oversight. But with that said I’ll go with 1) YES, 2) b, 3) NO, 4) a.
“housing bubble inflated and peaked due to excessive lending”
I could agree that loose lending helped inflate the bubble, but again it is a two edged sword. Excessive will to borrow is the other side of it. It’s the borrowers that bid up the prices. My point is that loose lending did not bring about the peak (downturn) in prices, rather the exhaustion of borrowers resulted in the peak. I think that the excessive lending could have continued, had not the borrowers performance peaked. There wasn’t any natural cap on credit expansion other than confidence in getting repaid. There was a natural cap on borrower performance.
BlueSkye, you speak of buyer exhaustion. I’ve been wondering when investors willing to hold a risk that is more than what they believed they were investing in reach exhaustion? When do past investors start to dump MBS and CMBS? Oh wait that’s why the central banks already had TARP and TARP like programs, so we didn’t have to witness that. We took the risk away from the naive so they didn’t revolt. Well there are still the pension fund and other institutions that were buyers. We have no idea how they’ve responded or what they hold.
Why are we arguing about how we got here when we should just be enjoying the squatting and free food? Just relax and enjoy. Some people just can’t see the big picture.
LOL Liz! Yes, but if one can get a clue about some of the smaller things, one might hope not to get whacked over the back of the head too much while kicking back.
Carrie,
It was reported a few weeks ago that US Money Market fund managers were pulling out of lending to European banks rather abruptly. That was when the ECB flooded banks with cheap loans. Another example of what you say?
They do have an asset purchase program in the Euroland now too.
It’s the borrowers that bid up the prices.
With increasingly easy to get borrowed money.
loose lending did not bring about the peak
It was not “loose lending” in static terms and this is important. It was increasingly looser lending year after year culminating in securitized, nuttball and predatory loans. (neg-am, 40 year, no-doc etc.) This increasingly looser lending and its extremes had never been seen before in the history of the real estate. And no one held a gun to the banker’s head demanding crazier loans. (nice turn huh?) lol
rather the exhaustion of borrowers resulted in the peak
Would borrowers have become exhausted if the loans had continued to become even more irrational?
There wasn’t any natural cap on credit expansion other than confidence in getting repaid. There was a natural cap on borrower performance.
As you said it’s a two edge sword. The “natural cap” on borrower performance is mostly influenced by the natural cap on credit expansion. This is why the blame lies mostly with the credit expansion (banks and government) and not with the borrowers. The (well known by banks) patterns of human behavior did and will not change and the patterns of manias will never change. It’s the banker’s business to know these patterns. Human behavior does not change but what did change was the level of credit extended.
The (well known by banks) patterns of human behavior did and will not change and the patterns of manias will never change.
You say that (and I agree) about borrowing, but you disagree when I use the same argument about “nesting”?
The urge that we call “nesting” has occurred throughout the millenia, and does not explain the bubble.
To put it in your words, this pattern of human behavior did not change.
The urge that we call “nesting” has occurred throughout the millenia, and does not explain the bubble….this pattern of human behavior did not change.
The pattern of the nesting instinct did not change at all. It was the intensity of the nesting instinct that changed.
It’s like the pattern of human behavior in manias. The pattern is part of human behavior however the intensity of the mania is affected by external factors. The controllable external factor that mostly affected the housing bubble was the easing of credit IMO.
As you say, the nesting instinct is a constant. What is not a constant is its intensity. For example: When one is in a rental or a small starter house and housing prices and rents are stable the nesting instinct affects behavior at a certain level. There is the nesting instinct absent a real sense of urgency. I mean why be so concerned about buying a newer or better house (the nest) if the prices are going to be almost the same next year? The nesting instinct is there but absent the fear of being “left behind” and absent the fear of losing their next and better nest forever.
However when one sees rents rising, home prices shooting through the roof and is fed the fear of “buy now or be priced out forever” then the nesting instinct becomes more powerful or intense due to these external factors. Fear of lost opportunity can directly affect the intensity of the nesting instinct as it did during the bubble - even as the pattern of the nesting instinct remained the same.
I guess I see the point that you are making, Rio. Let me see if i can restate it:
The “nesting instinct” is constant, but it affects people through an emotional response; the degree of that response varies with external stimuli such as housing prices skyrocketing, and manifests in other emotional responses—e.g. fear of being left behind.
That makes some sense, I suppose…
I would posit that all manias are at their core an emotional response, where the emotion that is triggered springs from some urge is somehow deeply embedded in our DNA.
The “nesting instinct” is constant, but it affects people through an emotional response; the degree of that response varies with external stimuli
That’s a good way to put it and is true IMO.
or buy a van and fix it up with a couch and pillows.
or buy a van and fix it up with a couch and pillows.
That works great for me, but it takes a special woman to appreciate that sort of nesting!
“This is why the blame lies mostly with the credit expan$ion (bank$ and government$) and not with the borrowers. The (well known by bank$) pattern$ of human behavior did and will not change and the pattern$ of mania$ will never change. It’s the banker’$ busine$$ to know these pattern$. Human behavior does not [$eldom] change$ but what did change was the level$ of credit$ extended.”
OK Rio, x3 cheers … [Hwy opens a brew... help yourself RIo]
It’s like “who blinked first”. I don’t think the banks stopped the expansion out of smartness or wisdom though, like not ascribing genius when stupidity explains.
“Again, I know I’m just stating the obvious, but I want to see what there is to be nitpicked about these statements or wholly disagreed with.”
You provide a nice factual summary of some key factors that explain how the housing bubble served to privatize immense profits and to socialize painful losses in the inevitable bust.
However, I see no reason to believe that liars and knaves won’t wholly disagree with much or all of what you stated. Lying is their modus operandi, like sleep to a baby.
” …the housing bubble served to privatize immen$e profit$ [SCOTU$ MegaInc. "Per$on$" & their minion$] and to $ocialize [ Citzen'$/Taxpayer$ & their minion$] painful lo$$es”
“$traighten up and fly$ right!” … is also a two edge $word
This sounds like a Limbaugh-style set-up.
No thanks. The only winning move is not to play.
Huh? Not trying to trap you… if you disagree with a point, say so..
Because nothing is cooler than Jamie Dimon in a Batman cap.
Ah! But which Batman? Bruce, Dick or Terry?
Adam West
I’d rather see him in a hood standing on a box with electrodes in his hands like in Abu Gharib
I’d rather see him in a hood
But the hood would keep me from seeing his eyes bulge out!
No hood, please.
The losses incurred by the ongoing failure of the mortgages from the bubble have largely been absorbed by the US taxpayer in the form of:”
I don’t know if all the losses have been absorbed yet ?
for sure not fully absorbed yet. I just meant the losses incurred *so far*.
Feb. 9, 2012, 1:38 p.m. EST
The 4 record highs home building hit in 2011
By Steve Kerch, MarketWatch
ORLANDO, Fla. (MarketWatch) — While single-family housing starts and new-home sales sunk to their worst levels on record in 2011, home builders did manage to hit four record highs for the year.
After four years in which the average size of new homes built in the U.S. declined or remained steady, the average square footage of a new home started in 2011 jumped to a record 2,522 square feet in 2001, survey data from the National Association of Home Builders show.
In addition, a record-high 42% of new homes contained four or more bedrooms in 2011, up from 36% in 2010. Homes with three or more bathrooms also hit a record-high 28%, up from 23%. And 30% of new homes last year included a finished basement, also a record percentage, up from 26% in 2011. Finished basements count in the square footage of a home if finished by the builder.
The figures come from a survey of NAHB members and were released Thursday at the International Builders Show here.
The record highs, however, come with one big caveat: They are based on the smallest sample of new-home construction since the home builders and the U.S. Census Bureau began keeping such records. There were a record low 429,000 single-family housing starts in 2011.
“It’s really counterintuitive based on what we hear from consumers about the bad economy, the unemployment and the foreclosure problems,” said Rose Quint, the NAHB’s assistant vice president for survey research economics and housing policy.
“But the answer is all in who is still buying homes. You have to be a superstar to qualify today — 20% down payment, high credit score, well-documented income and stable employment history,” she said. “That left out many, many first-time buyers and even a lot of first-time move-up buyers.”
“As a result, the home-buying market was dominated by a segment of buyers who tend to buy better-than-average homes, because they are better-than-average households.”
…
Hmm…just reading about JV sports cut from one of the local suburban school districts blamed on the cuts in funding from the state. I have to say it took me by surprise as we still have modified and freshman sports in our district…..for now, anyway and the school doing the cutting is a well regarded district w/the average mix of incomes, probably a bit more heavily represented in the upper middle classes.
I bring it up because there was a spike of home purchases last summer in our school district and I was looking for a reason. Well, I do know at least a few were medical staff moving in w/the hospital expansions. (I’d like to better understand specifics on funding there)
Besides the sports cuts, I’ve been hearing rumbles at work that the bar hasn’t been set as high over there as it used to be. (Teacher rumbles) There was an awful lot of McMansion building in that district in the past decade. I’m sensing this downgrade in school programs is going to add to the downward pressure already on those babies.
Music / finger-painting / critical thinking
Which sigh shall we hang in the window, is it:
“Need not apply” or “We reserve the right to refuse service to anyone!” ?
“Hey who cut the budget for football helmets!”
They cut sports before they cut the bloated administration staff.
because they are better-than-average households.”
oh yeah, sez who. sounds like tht bell curve crap.
Half of all the people you meet are less than average.
more than half, around here.
A couple of days ago I posted a chart showing DryShips (DRYS) stock prices suddenly rising up and seemingly heading toward the moon, accompanied by heavy volume. Well, check out for yourself to see what (IMHO) appears to have happened, which is a classic Pump & Dump operation.
Here’s the 5-day chart:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DRYS&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=b&c=
And here’s the date, the closing price, and the volume:
2-2-12 $2.16 3,217,900 (an average daily volume up until now)
2-3-12 $2.41 19,513,100 (check out how volume & price expanded)
2-6-12 $2.81 27,786,700
2-7-12 $2.76 21,370,500
2-8-12 $2.98 13,963,500
2-9-12 $3.06 19,753,200
2-10-12 $3.00 14,333,700
2-13-12 $3.34 23,254,100
2-14-12 $3.74 68,579,800 (this is the dump day, look how prices are rolling over accompanied by extreme volume)
2-15-12 $3.48 30,983,300 (price and volume are now left to go it on their own now that the stock has been dumped)
Again, just my opinion; Time will tell if I am correct.
FWIW.
Are you playing the slots Combo?
I’m not playing anything at all, just sharing an observation and an opinion.
It looks to me that somebody that owned a lot of shares of DRYS wanted out but needed to enlist the help of stock manipulators in order to create a market to absorb the huge volume of stock he needed to sell.
Maybe some small event triggered a robotic pile on? Maybe it was the China-Canada “Free Trade” agreement? How can you ever know what’s going on with stocks?
It looks to me that somebody that owned a lot of shares of DRYS wanted out but needed to enlist the help of stock manipulators in order to create a market
Read Reminiscences of a Stock Operator… that crap has been going on since the existance of the stock/commodity markets.
I see what you mean, but only if you click on the “max” viewing option:
The pumping started around 2006 and the dumping began around the time of the Fall 2008 global financial collapse.
It took a pretty good dump last August as well.
It could actually be a return to the longer-term trend-line since 2009…
But I tend to agree, combo. The recent volume is very strange.
Interesting enough to short? Hmmm…
Has there ever been an extended period of time in the past, like today, where the price of platinum was lower than the price of gold, or some other ridiculously obvious discrepancy? Can someone explain why speculators are acting this way?
Gold is mostly about money. Platinum is mostly about automobiles.
Gold is mostly about irrational exuberance. Platinum is about fundamental value.
Gold? / irrational exuberance? / money?
( Hwy50 checks pantry for Neil’s “All Natural Popcorn!” … )
Let the game$ begin!
Now we know what’s Greenspan’s been doin’ lately.
Gold is mostly about irrational exuberance. Platinum is about fundamental value.
If that were true then why don’t we say “as good as platinum”?
If that were true then why don’t we say “as good as platinum”?
Maybe because for most of history it was too rare to be used broadly? It’s also not as easy to divide, verify, etc etc.
Having owned only 26 cars, trucks, or motorcycles so far, I guess that explains why my subconscious insisted on platinum for my wife’s
engagement and wedding ring.
Isn’t palladium used in catalytic converters?
Platinum, palladium, and rhodium.
Use of platinum may be shrinking.
Scientists avoid the use of platinum in hydrogen fuel cells
Los Alamos National Laboratory scientists claim to have developed a way to avoid the use of platinum in hydrogen fuel cells.
In a paper published in Science, Los Alamos researchers Gang Wu, Christina Johnston and Piotr Zelenay, joined by researcher Karren More of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, describe the use of a platinum-free catalyst in the cathode of a hydrogen fuel cell.
Polymer-electrolyte hydrogen fuel cells convert hydrogen and oxygen into electricity. The cells can be enlarged and combined in series for high-power applications, including vehicles.
Under optimal conditions, the hydrogen fuel cell produces water as a ’waste’ product and does not emit greenhouse gases. However, because the use of platinum in catalysts is necessary to facilitate the reactions that produce electricity within a fuel cell, widespread use of fuel cells in common applications has been cost prohibitive.
An increase in the demand for platinum-based catalysts could drive up the cost of platinum even higher than its current value of nearly $1,800 an ounce.
The Los Alamos researchers developed non-precious-metal catalysts for the part of the fuel cell that reacts with oxygen.
http://www.theengineer.co.uk/sectors/energy-and-environment/news/scientists-avoid-the-use-of-platinum-in-hydrogen-fuel-cells/1008413.article
This was my father’s line of research. Nice to see that lower cost materials are starting to look better, because I well remember him talking about the prices of palladium, platinum, etc.
Just some more wasteful, fraudulent and abusive government research. Sorta like that internet thing.
It’s not about cost, Slim. It’s about global inventory. For example, palladium is used in some high-end titanium alloys. If you need to make a lot of things of that good alloy, it becomes a valid question whether there are actually enough palladium atoms in the world for everything. To abuse an old joke, they aren’t making any more palladium.
Whereas, organic chemicals are unlimited, because you can always make them. It might be expensive, but you won’t run out of raw material.
Chemists have been working on the electrical properties of organic macromolecules and polymers for decades. I once attended a seminar where someone had a designed single-molecule AND gates and OR gates, just by choosing where to put double C=C and single C-C bonds.
I met someone at Univ. of Illinois in the late ’90s who was working on that. Really interesting stuff. I thought it wouldn’t be too long before whole organic computers the size of a pin head.
I met someone at Univ. of Illinois in the late ’90s
Blue, what were you doing at UofI in the late ’90s? I was there at that time…
I was helping Prof McCall build a laser system. Interesting fellow.
Realtors Are Liars®
Whatever happened to Hanky Paulson’s treasury whizkid Neal Kashkari, remember him?
Wow, that’s a blast from the past! I forgot all about Kashi-Go-Lean.
I’ll never forget any of these a$$holes from back in 2008. And their names need to be repeated and remembered here until they all receive real justice with a Singapore-style caning and be stripped of all of their assets.
From Wikipedia:
Personal
Kashkari and his wife Minal have residences in Silver Spring, Maryland,[18] as well as near San Francisco.[7] Minal Kashkari is employed as an engineer at Lockheed Martin Corporation.[19] The Kashkaris currently live in Nevada County, California where Neel is doing what he calls a “detox” from Washington.[20]
Loved that last line. I had seen him pop up on some fiscal policy interviews the past few months too.
He’s working at PimpCo now.
PimpMEgaInc.’$ et.al.
Like trailer magnet$ to Hurricane$
round & round, …$wirling & $wirling …de$truction’$ to follow afterward$
He’s working at PimpCo now.
PIMCO hires political connections, not people.
Faulty reasoning keeps Fannie and Freddie out of foreclosure deal
By Michael Hiltzik
February 14, 2012, 7:29 p.m.
You can love or you can hate the recent $25-billion federal-state mortgage foreclosure settlement, but there’s no getting around one simple fact: There’s a huge, gaping hole right in the middle of it.
The hole is that if your home loan has been bought from your lender by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, you’re not eligible for the mortgage relief encompassed by the deal.
The answer is that the participation of Fannie and Freddie has been blocked by a career civil servant named Edward J. DeMarco.
As acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, DeMarco is the chief regulator and conservator of Fannie and Freddie, which were chartered by the federal government to buy up mortgages
Faulty reasoning keeps Fannie and Freddie out of foreclosure deal
The chief regulator and conservator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is adamantly opposed to principal forgiveness, a key element of the foreclosure settlement. But analyses show he’s wrong.
Since Fannie and Freddie control well more than half of all outstanding mortgages, this shortcoming looks to be what engineers would call “non-trivial.”
What gives?
The answer is that the participation of Fannie and Freddie has been blocked by a career civil servant named Edward J. DeMarco.
As acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, DeMarco is the chief regulator and conservator of Fannie and Freddie, which were chartered by the federal government to buy up mortgages, thus encouraging lenders to make home loans.
He has very firm ideas about a key element of the settlement, which would cut the principal balance for some homeowners who owe more on their loans than their homes are worth: He dislikes this sort of write-down so much that he’s forbidden Fannie and Freddie to do it. (Experts refer to the homeowners’ distance beneath the waves as their “negative equity” and the write-down of loan balances as “principal forgiveness.”)
DeMarco contends that forgiveness saddles lenders with bigger losses on restructured loans than any other form of relief except foreclosure, and therefore he’d be violating federal law if he gave Fannie and Freddie the green light. In a nutshell, that’s why Fannie and Freddie aren’t in the national foreclosure settlement.
But what about DeMarco’s argument that principal forgiveness is the biggest loser among restructuring alternatives? The truth is that it doesn’t seem to hold even a nutshell’s worth of water. In fact, his own agency’s analysis, which he provided last month to Rep. Elijah E. Cummings (D-Md.) and other Democrats on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, contradicts it. And independent analyses, including one from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, blow it to smithereens.
Let’s look at the record.
If you’re trying to keep financially strapped underwater homeowners (Deadbeats) out of foreclosure, there are really only three ways to do it. All are aimed at reducing the homeowner’s monthly payment:
•You can cut the interest rate on the loan.
•You can defer payments on part of the principal owed, often by tacking the unpaid obligation to the end of the loan or reamortizing it over a longer period; this is known as principal forbearance.
•Or you can write down all or part of the excess principal to bring the balance closer in line with the home’s value (forgiveness).
Interest rate cuts alone don’t do much — cutting the rate to 4% from 5% on a balance of $100,000 saves a borrower about $60 a month. Principal modifications can be more effective, especially when combined with an interest-rate cut.
But the Holy Grail in restructurings is to prevent homeowners from re-defaulting after a modification, and the record shows that forgiveness (Forgive me Father for I am a Deadbeat. Go and treat your house like an ATM no more my son) is much better than any other option in achieving that.
http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-hiltzik-20120214,0,7984008.column - 192k -
My questions about the plan to reduce principal value to no less than 15% of fmv are:
What metric is used to determine fmv (appraisers are a big part of problem we now have)
What if the fmv continues to decline, say 18 mos. from now, “Can we get another principal reduction”
Are there clawback provisions, say property magically increases in value above fmv or above loan amount, is there a provision for the increase to be recouped.
“Experts refer to the homeowners’ distance beneath the waves as their “negative equity”
One of you smart guys should write a book about all of this and call it….
Distance beneath the waves
PS
2 of the () above are from me.
When you own half of all mortgages, the “moral hazard effect” is you own.
That is, for borrower A principal forgiveness may provide the smallest loss.
But what if it induces borrowers B, C and D to repeat the behavior or borrower A? Then you losses are multiplied.
Exactly. Given F&F’s position, he isn’t looking at just the one mortgage being considered for partial forgiveness, but also how that partial forgiveness impacts the behavior of others. His conclusion is based on a a world without externalities.
The hole is that if your home loan has been bought from your lender by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, you’re not eligible for the mortgage relief encompassed by the deal.
The goal is to move toxic assets to the taxpayers, so if fannie or freddie holds the note the taxpayers are already on the hook.
I particularly enjoyed your edits to the article, jeff…
Of course, for the sake of journalistic integrity, you should self-attribute them clearly rather than just using parentheses.
But the language made pretty clear which parts were from you (Deadbeat).
I guess I was just counting to heavily on the different writing styles of Michael Hiltzik and myself.
I was particularly fond of….
“But the Holy Grail in restructurings is to prevent homeowners from re-defaulting after a modification, and the record shows that forgiveness
(Forgive me Father for I am a Deadbeat. Go and treat your house like an ATM no more my son) 
is much better than any other option in achieving that.”
I was particularly fond of….
Me too!
GM is a fraud.
New Chevy Cruze states 42mpg but is undrivable (dog) without transmission reprogramming dropping it to 32mpg.
(Similar to the Honda hybrid bait and switch law suits now in the news)
Enough with the scams.
FWIW, these are the EPA provided numbers. GM is far from alone in selling “40 mpg cars” that don’t get 40 mpg in the real world. It seems that everybody has one. In any case, the number that really matters is the “combined” number.
I’m surprised the Cruze performs so poorly. We had a Pontiac G5 (Chevy Cobalt twin), the Cruze’s predecessor, and I was able to get 37 MPG on the highway (it was a 5 speed manual).
As for “transmission reprogramming” why are American so afraid of a clutch? I’m always amazed a the number of people I meet who can only drive a slush box.
Most people don’t drive. They “operate.”
Big difference.
“Bait and switch” in the auto industry? That’s like complaining that poop stinks. But the hardest thing about buying a car in this country is the dealers. Like RE, the amount of hoop jumping and double-talk and outright lying prevents many sales.
Yeah well some of us drive automatics because we’re multitasking, texting, tweeting, updating facebook while driving.
Oh, for pete’s sake! Pay attention and DRIVE, people. The HBB Bicycling Team would appreciate it.
Thank you.
Also holding coffee in one hand and breakfast sandwich in the other?
“The HBB Bicycling Team would appreciate it.”
No doubt. All these driving fools racing to the stop sign in front of our rental then gunning it away (crushing their mpg) just so they can get home to watch DWTS or Friends re-runs get on my last nerve.
Aside: I heard at one point that the EPA wasn’t driving the cars, just measuring tailpipe emissions to get MPG. Grain of salt, no link.
They used to, but changed that in the past few years and run several tests on a dynamometer that mimic real life conditions, such as hills, in city, and A/C use.
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/how_tested.shtml
They do measure tailpipe emissions to get MPG; they say they do it because it is more accurate than the fuel gauge.
All these driving fools racing to the stop sign in front of our rental then gunning it away (crushing their mpg) just so they can get home to watch DWTS or Friends re-runs get on my last nerve.
HOT button!
I frequently am menaced by racing vehicles while IN CROSSWALKS at stop-signs while walking across campus at the end of the work-day. Do you REALLY need to shave the two seconds off your commute that a full-stop would cost you???
Grrrr… I smack cars when they pass me and are close enough to do so.
Yeah but if we don’t drive like a$$holes to navigate around all you environmentalist wacko pedestrians and fairies in spandex on bicycles by the time we get to Applebee’s the wait for a table will be like 45 minutes!
“Do you REALLY need to shave the two seconds off your commute that a full-stop would cost you???”
Well, coming to a full stop cuts into gas mileage as well, having to accelerate from zero. Therefore, I run stop signs to lower our dependence on middle eastern oil. Just doing my part, no need to thank me.
“Therefore, I run stop signs to lower our dependence on middle eastern oil.”
While I understand your need to satirize, you’d lower our dependence even more by not using the car. That said, I do tend to glide through stop signs on the bike if there are no cars or pedestrians about. My m term in F=ma is 20 lbs higher since I lost my daily commute.
“fairies in spandex on bicycles”
Hey, I resemble that remark! Actually, IMO the very people who look worst in spandex need to wear it the least. Heck, I should have a top-fuel parachute adding resistance to my ride! Also, there are things that you can’t un-see. I wear spandex under long shorts for the good of human-kind.
MrBubble
And human-kind thanks you for the courtesy, Mr.B. What’s in your beds these days, btw?
Agreed, buying a car is a painful process.
I believe car sales would be higher if the prices were transparent and the games were avoided.
“Agreed, buying a car is a painful process.”
Suggestion:
TRUECar®
Know the Real Price™
100% Haggle-Free New Car Price Quote
Welcome to the Better Car Buying Experience
See what others paid, and then take your Certificate to a TrueCar Certified Dealer for a fast, hassle-free car buying experience. Save time and money, and drive home happy.
I know tell me about it.
With all those fancy options like power brakes, power steering, inflatable tires and automatic starters people just don’t know what its like to drive a real car.
With all those fancy options like power brakes, power steering, inflatable tires and automatic starters people just don’t know what its like to drive a real car.
LOL! I know you meant that to be tongue-in-cheek, but you described my car to a “T”!
Less cr@p to break, IMO…
I drove a manual for 40 years, but resale value is not good. When I hit old age I decided automatic would be nice. But I can still drive manual.
My ‘89 Civic 5 sp got 43 mpg.
“why are American so afraid of a clutch?”
Because some of us tire of ball bearings in a coffee can.
As for “transmission reprogramming” why are American so afraid of a clutch? I’m always amazed a the number of people I meet who can only drive a slush box.
A rash of car thefts in our neighborhood - including 2 cars identical to mine - made me realize that none of my cars has ever been stolen, perhaps because car thieves don’t drive stick shifts.
Just a theory.
Very few people in hilly SF drive stick shifts.
New Chevy Cruze states 42mpg but is undrivable (dog) without transmission reprogramming dropping it to 32mpg.
———–
I’ve never personally driven one, but I’ve heard any complaints about the Cruz’s accelleration from my coworkers who have them.
In any case, accelleration and good fuel milage are kind of polar opposites. If you are aiming for good mileage, then you should accept a bit less acelleration. It’s not like anybody uses their high speed 0-60 times anyways. I know, I sit behind you in traffic. That light is not going to get any greener.
*not heard* any complaints.
Understand that the 42mpg is should only be used to compare cars on a similar driving cycle.
The chevy cruze eco states 42 but the other models get 36-38.
If you drive hard ie rapid acceleration and high speeds and in a lot of stop and go you are going to do much worse regardless of the car.
When you drive in the winter particularly short trips you are going to do worse.
If you drive with a fully loaded car and blast the AC you are going to do worse.
I can’t believe the lady that took Honda to court won, or that people don’t understand these simple facts.
The EPA mileage number is generated as a byproduct of emissions testing. Done in a test cell, with a computer “driving” the car on a pre-programmed, identical loop, with no atmospheric factors like temperature, wind resistance, road surface, etc. coming into play.
Okay for comparing apples to apples theoretical gas mileage numbers, but you have to remember that most “High MPG Specials” are built/programmed/biased to put up a big number on the EPA test. Most of them suffer badly when operated in the real world, where there are things like hills, wind, heavy traffic that requires heavy mashing of the throttle to merge, packing a bunch of crap, etc.
Putting a 800 pound load into a truck won’t decrease the mileage much. Put 800 pounds in a 2800 pound Honda Civic, and you’ve increased the GVW by almost a third.
I remember reading recently that running a car’s A/C only diminishes gas mileage by about 2% vs. 10% rule-of-thumb 30 years ago.
More efficient design?
Keep the windows rolled up? (wink)
but is undrivable (dog)
I drive a “dog” by choice–it’s an old underpowered normally-aspirated (non-turbo) diesel.
It gets crazy-good mileage, though, and it is far from “undrivable”.
Good mileage and better control of performance are one of the reasons that I prefer a manual transmission, ideally with lots of gears.
Hmmm. NA diesel… stick shift…. can be one of only two cars: An old early 80s VW Rabbit/Golf… or a truly ancient Mercedes 240D. If its automatic it could be several others…
I have two Jetta TDIs and am a huge diesel/stickshift advocator. Also believe there truly is no hurry to get from one red light to the next and try to save fuel and brakes over a few seconds. So many drivers just romp it off the line and hold the throttle too long when approaching stopped traffic only to brake much harder than necessary. Guess that keeps their local mechanic employed.
An old early 80s VW Rabbit/Golf…
It’s an 82 Jetta diesel 5-speed—you nailed it palmy! It’s just a rabbit with a trunk.
The 5-speed does great things for the already good mileage.
It amazes me that 30yrs later, we haven’t come any further in terms of improving mileage. After thirty freakin years of technological improvement!
You can get a newer TDI with similar mileage and _way_ better performance, though! Or a hybrid with lots more complexity (things to go wrong), and not-well-accounted for externalities in terms of the environmental cost of large batteries.
I have owned three Rabbit diesel 5 speed pickup trucks over the years and loved all of them. Those old 1.6 liter diesels have about 48hp and like to shake the alternators right off of ‘em over time. If you like that car you really owe it to yourself to try a third-gen (99-05) Jetta which can be had for about five grand and will feel lightyears ahead of your horse and buggy (a/c that actually works, quiet cabin, 100mph cruising power, etc). My dad still has his Rabbit diesel pickup truck.
If you like that car you really owe it to yourself to try a third-gen (99-05) Jetta
That’s likely my next car, unless I got the really-old-Mercedes route…
But my current one feels like it has so much life left in it!
Speaking of shaking the alternator right off, my little beast definitely has that shake thing down. When I bought it, it REALLY had the shakes—it had broken out one of its engine mounts!
Hmm…just reading about JV sports cut from one of the local suburban school districts blamed on the cuts in funding from the state. I have to say it took me by surprise as we still have modified and freshman sports in our district…..for now, anyway and the school doing the cutting is a well regarded district w/the average mix of incomes, probably a bit more heavily represented in the upper middle classes.
I bring it up because there was a spike of home purchases last summer in our school district and I was looking for a reason. Well, I do know at least a few were medical staff moving in w/the hospital expansions. (I’d like to better understand specifics on funding there)
Besides the sports cuts, I’ve been hearing rumbles at work that the bar hasn’t been set as high over there as it used to be. (Teacher rumbles) There was an awful lot of McMansion building in that district in the past decade. I’m sensing this downgrade in school programs is going to add to the downward pressure already on those babies. I’m also wondering if that will send at least some buyers into other districts. Well, they’re just the first to announce. I’m sure over the next few years, they’ll be in good company.
Not that downgrades seem to matter anymore in this Emporer has No Clothes reality but….:
(Reuters) - Moody’s warned on Thursday it may cut the credit ratings of 17 global and 114 European financial institutions in another sign the impact of the euro zone government debt crisis is spreading throughout the global financial system.
It was reviewing the long-term ratings and standalone credit assessments of a range of banks, Moody’s added. Markets were unaffected by the Moody’s announcement.
“Capital markets firms are confronting evolving challenges, such as more fragile funding conditions, wider credit spreads, increased regulatory burdens and more difficult operating conditions,” the ratings agency said in a statement.
It said among 17 banks and securities firms with global capital markets operations, it might cut the long-term credit rating of UBS, Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley by as much as three notches following the review. It said the guidance was indicative.
Among the banks that might be downgraded by two notches are Barclays, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Deutsche Bank, HSBC Holdings, and Goldman Sachs.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/16/us-moodys-europe-idUSTRE81E2I820120216?source=email_rt_mc&ifp=0
Bloomberg News says that young people are burden by student loan debt, but once they pay that off their borrowing spending will drive a housing recovery (and allow older generations to sell).
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-16/student-loans-approaching-1-trillion-hurting-first-time-buyers-mortgages.html
Many politicians say that to ensure the U.S. can borrow enough money to provide Social Security and Medicare to today’s tax cut friendly seniors. Younger generations will have to do without the programs, because they have “time to adjust.”
And how are they supposed to adjust? By saving 30% of their income so they don’t end up dying from exposure by the side of the road at age 72? And if that is the case, how are they supposed to buy houses from older generations at prices that allow them to take cruises?
Generation Greed!
Yeah, cause seniors are livin’ large on that $1000 a month!
Oh, and Gen Y and X are far larger than the boomers. And… will outlive the boomers.
They are lying to us ALL in order to take SS and give it Wall St.
seniors are livin’ large on that $1000 a month
This is why Social Security needs to be cut. $1000 a month is socialism. Unlike the 1% producers who are barely scraping by.
Santorum Says Tax Returns Show He Doesn’t Have “Wealth”
http://slatest.slate.com/posts/2012/02/16/rick_santorum_tax_returns_gop_candidate_releases_4_years_of_self_prepared_returns.html.html
….(Santorum) earned an annual income of more than $900,000 over the past three years….
…..”I don’t have wealth,” Santorum said while campaigning in North Dakota, Politico reports.
See the article from yesterday’s NY Times: For London Youth, Down and Out Is Way of Life.
I can recall being in that situation when I was a youth. And what did that experience leave me with? Here goes:
1. A deep distrust of anything corporate. Goes back to when I tried to get jobs with them, but they weren’t interested in hiring me or any of my young, college educated friends.
2. A lot of skepticism over the “get a good job, get a good education” meme. Didn’t work for me. Or a lot of other people I know.
3. A firm belief in the power of groups of outsiders. You know, groups like this one. We’re outside of the mainstream on the housing issue, and that has been true for many years. But, over time, our point of view wins out.
Me too, when I graduated in the early 80’s. Applied for jobs with Corporate America and I got zip. In fact the only lead I got (through the college’s placement office) was with Electronic Data Systems. EDS made you sign promissory notes in exchange for on the job training, which was mandatory. I said no thanks and wound up working at a tiny start up with no benefits.
Once I was “experienced” I was able to eventually transfer into the world of higher pay and benefits of Corporate America.
And that was when the offshoring began.
So, it’s your fault!!!!
Bat Rastard.
EDS made you sign promissory notes in exchange for on the job training, which was mandatory.
WTF??? Wow, that’s evil. And takes a _lot_ of gall.
Yup. In theory they expired after 2-3 years. But you would always be in training. So if you quit, there would be a bill waiting for you.
I don’t know if they still do it. This was back when Ross Perot still owned EDS.
Before I started my government cheese gig, I did a brief stint as a contractor for Big A$$ Mutual Fund company located in Cherry Creek, Colorado doing telephone customer service for Lucky Ducky wages and zero benefits.
Among my fellow contractors were degrees in finance, economics, pre-med, and law. Most either had working spouses, lived with 3+ roommates, or still got funding from Bank of Mom and Dad.
And those with student loans mostly had them under economic hardship deferments, with the interest on unsubsidized loans accruing and being added to principal.
Remind me again of the economic fundamentals of this “recovery”?
Last I saw outstanding student loan debt was near a trillion. My guess is they have a lot of other debt as well, ie new car credit card house. Thus this statement is true but the big question is when will they pay it off and the answer may be never.
Not everybody with the student loans goes to work for Big Law and pays them off in less than 5 years. 10-15-20 years are the repayment terms for most.
Consider what these people WON’T be doing during that time: getting married, having children, forming households. Sorry, REIC
I think they even go up to 25 years for the consolidated loans. I know people who have formed households (married and kids) while still having many years to pay off the loans, bu they are living paycheck to paycheck even with very modest lifestyles.
living paycheck to paycheck even with very modest lifestyles.
Americans don’t live modest lifestyles because they have a cellphone and watch their flat-screen TV’s while eating real meat because they are lazy.
…while driving their Escalades and not doing the jobs illegals will do.
ISTR reading that student debt recently blew past the total amount of American credit card debt. Which is quite the accomplishment.
Ignore that it is fundamentally, mathmatically impossible for everyone to save.
Truth is not facts and figures. Truth is whatever we decide it to be.
If we decide that today’s young can send 30% income to gov, spend 75% on housing and consumption, and save 30%, then I guess they can…. They just need to be able to go 35% of their income further into debt every year, without having to ever pay on or for any of that debt.
Easy peasy.
Yes, money borrowed = money lent. But it seems like the pattern for the last few decades has been for a majority to go into deeper and deeper debt to a minority with money to lend. And while I don’t have great sympathy for those who borrow their way to the poor house, I don’t think that structuring our economy around ever greater levels of debt by the majority of households is a good idea. The debt pushers managed to change the bankruptcy laws because the idea that perhaps they should have been better at declining to loan money to deadbeats was crazy talk.
But it seems like the pattern for the last few decades has been for a majority to go into deeper and deeper debt to a minority with money to lend.
A few months ago, I read an article suggesting a talking point for the Occupy movement. Here it is:
Our Debt is Their Wealth
Our Debt is Their Wealth
well yeah, obviously. Someone has to have wealth to be able to loan it out to become someone else’s debt.
Imagine, if the wealth didn’t exist, they wouldn’t be able to borrow to make their lives “better”. Is that a desired alternative?
Darrel,
Why won’t you just admit that this is a false statement. It is only your opinion that it is impossible. I’ve repeatedly shown how assets can be saved in lieu of “anti-debt”. Why won’t you acknowledge???
You’re using a different definition of “money” than Darrell is. Assets/wealth is not the same as money.
Darrel’s statement:
”
Ignore that it is fundamentally, mathmatically impossible for everyone to save
”
Notice that the word money is used nowhere in that statement. This is the Darrel spin.
This is like saying , “Mammal cats have paws” … ok.. Then step 2, just leaving off the cats:
“Mammals have paws” NO they friggin don’t.
That is just assuming I agree with the fundamentally flawed statement that there is a fundamental natural law creating a net 0 balance of “anti-debt” and debt.
Then, he tries to pass it off as a mathematical proof as if he has somehow shown that 2+2=4. It is just NOT the case.
At best, Darrel has a theory that *he* believes, and that in the opinion of more persons than myself is deeply, fundamentally flawed.
Perhaps he should be more specific, but I have a high confidence that when he says “save”, he means legal tender.
That is just assuming I agree with the fundamentally flawed statement that there is a fundamental natural law creating a net 0 balance of “anti-debt” and debt.
I also showed the other day that there is no new debt created in the system when the Fed injects new money (sorry, new anti-debt) by purchasing assets in the secondary markets. The debt already existed, and merely moved from one place to another.
Ergo, in at least this case, the theory is flawed.
Don’t bother, mathguy. DiP is stuck in his theory on this one, and actual fact that doesn’t fit into the narrative can’t penetrate the bubble. Kinda like GWB probably thought he was a patriot….
Possible foreclosure fraud business plan.
1.) Buy large amounts of distressed debt that is senior to Countrywide mortgages at pennies on the dollar.
2.)Wait until the FBs are foreclosed upon supported by DocX/LPS fraudulent documents.
3.)Sue BofA since the your debt is senior to theirs, and they had no right to seize this property from the FB.
4.)Profit.
Your plan infringes upon copyright of Goldman Sachs business plan. You would be subject to a lawsuit from Lloyd.
Why not just reinstate Glass-Steagall and be done with it? It seemed to be working just fine until it was abolished a decade or so before the 2008 Wall Street financial collapse.
HEARD ON THE STREET
FEBRUARY 15, 2012
No Exception to the ‘Volcker Rule’
By DAVID REILLY
What’s good for the goose should be good for the gander.
That is the line from foreign governments and central banks, upset by the Volcker rule’s ban on banks taking proprietary positions in government securities. Their fear: It will reduce liquidity. Their particular gripe: that U.S. Treasurys will be exempt, an implicit acknowledgment that Washington believes this risk is real.
The Volcker rule was designed to be a sort of lite version of the Glass-Steagall Act, the Depression-era rule that separated investment- and commercial-banking activities. The idea is that firms using what are essentially taxpayer-backed funds, through deposit insurance and access to the Federal Reserve’s discount window, shouldn’t be allowed to place market wagers with that money. That is a common-sense goal, although arguably it would have been better for Congress to have gone whole hog and simply resurrected Glass-Steagall.
Given that ship has sailed, regulators need to define what are straight bets versus market-making activities that help clients trade securities. In doing that, the worry is the rule will unduly reduce liquidity and make trading more expensive or difficult for investors. That was one message repeated in many of the voluminous letters filed by Monday’s deadline for comments on the proposed rule.
The exemption for U.S. government debt buttresses that argument. After all, if the rule won’t increase market costs and reduce liquidity, why have any carve-outs?
Foreign officials say markets for their own government securities will suffer under the rule as currently proposed. In a comment letter Monday, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney argued that the rule’s restrictions could limit U.S. banks’ participation in the Canadian government-debt market and “ultimately undermine the resilience of the Canadian financial system.”
One option, as espoused by Mr. Carney and others, is to extend the exemption to all government securities. But that is a slippery slope, and it could open the door to similar exemptions for other markets.
Already some have argued that all, not just some, types of state and municipal debt should also be exempted. That in turn raises the question of why government-debt markets are being favored over corporate ones.
This increases the prospect, already a very real fear for the rule’s supporters, that it will be watered down over time. Indeed, some comment letters, including one from former Citigroup Chairman and Chief Executive John Reed, have argued the rule actually needs to be strengthened.
…
So… banks think they should have the same powers as government?
It’s doesn’t get any more naked truth than this.
Why not just reinstate Glass-Steagall and be done with it? It seemed to be working just fine until it was abolished a decade or so before the 2008 Wall Street financial collapse.
A lot of graft, favors and string pulling were required to ditch Glass-Steagall. Besides they could use a second chance at self regulation.
They should have started with reinstating Glass-Steagall as an opening gambit, and, at worst, agreed to the Volcker-rule as a compromise.
Regulating derivatives is what is really needed on Wall $treet.
So now the fun begins:
A new court initiative will allow all New York homeowners facing foreclosure to obtain legal representation and streamline the process of settling mortgage disputes out of court, Chief Judge Jonathan Lippman said Tuesday during his annual State of the Judiciary speech.
The “unprecedented” deal between the state, legal service groups and four large banks — Wells Fargo, Citibank, Chase and Bank of America — includes the creation of a new court part that will hear only foreclosure settlement conferences, Lippman said. Each week of the month will be dedicated to a different bank, with one attorney assigned to handle all cases for that lender.
“There will be no more excuses, no more delays,” Lippman said. “Real negotiations will take place, and homeowners will leave the table with the best available offer.”
The court system, Lippman said, is seeking to avoid scenarios that can delay settlement conferences for years, including homeowners being told their paperwork is out-of-date and lawyers for banks claiming to have incomplete sets of documents.
The program will kick off in New York City, where non-profit legal service groups have agreed to represent all homeowners entering the settlement conference process.
http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.com/New_York/News/2012/02_-_February/Chief_judge_announces_new_foreclosure_court_part_in_state_of_judiciary_speech/
Recovery appears to be solidly taking hold in the U.S. labor market.
Economic Report Archives
Feb. 16, 2012, 8:35 a.m. EST
Jobless claims fall to nearly four-year low
Applications for unemployment benefits drop 13,000 to 348,000
By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level in almost four years, further evidence of an improving U.S. labor market, government data showed.
Initial claims are a good gauge of whether layoffs are rising or declining. They’ve fallen steadily since last summer, an indication that fewer people are losing their jobs and more are finding work. As a result, the unemployment rate has declined to 8.3% from 9.1% last August, though it still remains quite high at this stage of an economic recovery.
The Labor Department on Thursday said jobless claims decreased by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 in the week ended Feb. 11. That’s the lowest level since March 2008, when the U.S. was in the early stages of a recession.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch estimated claims would rise to 368,000. Claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 361,000 from 358,000.
The four-week average of claims, meanwhile, fell by a smaller 1,750 to 365,250, keeping it near a four-year low. The monthly average smooths out seasonal quirks and provides a more accurate view of labor-market trends, economists say.
Hiring is generally viewed as improving when weekly claims drop below the 400,000 mark.
…
No one wants to fire the workers they have. They might be stuck having to hire the unemployed.
How about some stats on the median wages and hours worked per week of these new jobs? And a comparison of this with the actual, non-CPI-lie inflation of the price of food and energy over the past 5 years?
Then explain how the “recovery” is working out for the half of this country’s workers who make less than $500/week. Because the future belongs to Lucky Ducky!
How about some stats on the median wages and hours worked per week of these new jobs?
You mean you want hard data? Who do you think you are? Get back to work, serf! And don’t forget to live beyond your means.
How about some stats on the median wages and hours worked per week of these new jobs?
For Jobless, Little Hope of Restoring Better Days
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/02/business/for-jobless-little-hope-of-full-recovery-study-says.html?pagewanted=all
….just 7 percent of those who lost jobs after the financial crisis have returned to or exceeded their previous financial position and maintained their lifestyles.
The vast majority say they have diminished lifestyles, and about 15 percent say the reduction in their incomes has been drastic and will probably be permanent….
The squad LOVES articles like this! Too bad the REIC doesn’t read them. Wait til Lucky Ducky is paying $5 for gas this summer to get to his three part time jobs and then tell us about the alleged recovery.
“This is the strongest global economy I’ve seen in my business lifetime” - Henry Paulson, 2007
“This is the strongest global economy I’ve seen in my business lifetime” - Henry Paulson, 2007
LOL—one of the best lines ever!
I remember we skewered him good here the day that one was reported.
+1. Thanks for reposting. I bookmark all of these, such as the one eco/turkey posts about offshoring/tax breaks, to use against my hypocrite friends.
Race to the bottom!
I still can’t figure it out. We live in a 70% consumer driven economy, yet the PTB have decided that somehow, the economy doesn’t really need… consumers. An idea I would have though until just recently, an impossibility. Yet lo and behold!, many corporations are reporting record profits while J6P’s wages are clearly deteriorating!
Somebody is lying about something.
Recovery appears to be solidly taking hold in the U.S. labor market.
Completely anecdotal, but I’ve received 2 unsolicited emails (via linkedin) directly from company HR (not headhunters), asking if I would be interested in a job. This was within the last 2 weeks.
I already have a full-time salaried and a part-time contract/consultant job, so I’m not looking to make a move. Every software developer I know is gainfully employed. I haven’t seen this type of activity in Tech since the late 90’s boom. This is in Boston, btw.
I’ve been an unabashed freelancer on LinkedIn for years. And do those recruiters contact me? Hmmmph! No.
Might be because my LinkedIn profile makes it pretty obvious that I wasn’t born yesterday. And, maybe-just-maybe, the way I’ve written it might indicate that I might be the kind of smart-mouth that would question how the company is run. Which is a real no-no in Corporate Team Player Land.
I believe that being a “freelancer” is kind of a Scarlet Letter in the world of Corporate America.
In “Bait and Switch: The (Futile) Pursuit of the American Dream” by Barbara Ehrenreich, the author pretends to be a middle aged freelancer trying to land a full time job in Corporate America. Her original intent was to get such a job and do a parallel of her previous book, Nickled and Dimed (where she went undercover as a Lucky Ducky).
Unfortunately she was unable to get a job, and instead discovered the underworld of middle aged, white collar workers who had been put out to pasture. Her finding was that most of her comrades had no choice but to become freelancers. Most of them wound up selling insurance or real estate. She even hired a “career coach”, who she quickly realized was also unable to get a real job, and became a freelancer.
She also had an interesting observation regarding white collar workers vs. Lucky Duckies. From her observation the Lucky Duckies helped each other out, whereas the white collar folks stab each other in the back.
The very same people who thought union and blue collar workers were (and still are!) paid too much.
Screw ‘em.
The very same people who thought union and blue collar workers were (and still are!) paid too much.
They were paid too much—relative to the people in China who will do the same work for one-tenth of the cost.
the way I’ve written it might indicate that I might be the kind of smart-mouth that would question how the company is run
Now I’m going to HAVE to look you up on LinkedIn, Slim!
I’m getting lots of unsolicited calls too. Hopefully this means decent raises later this year.
Would be nice… haven’t actually seen a raise without having to change jobs in some time. Of course, if there isn’t a raise, there seem to be plenty of jobs to try and push that comp package up.
All I can think of is that Office Space quote “They better start treating us developers better…”
they’re probably trying to get in on the Facebook scam before it blows up.
“Either you’re slingin’ crack-rock, or you’ve got a wicked jump-shot.” Nobody wants to work for it anymore. There’s no honor in taking that after school job at Mickey Dee’s, honor’s in the dollar, kid. So I went the white boy way of slinging crack-rock: I became a…
Anybody who tells you money is the root of all evil doesn’t fucking have any.
They say money can’t buy happiness? Look at the fucking smile on my face. Ear to ear, baby.
Love that movie. And to tell the truth, I’m hoping to cash in this time around. Got squat the last tech bubble…
If this is the best we can do in the face of 0% interest rates and $1.3T a year deficits, color me unimpressed.
Recovery appears to be solidly taking hold in the U.S. labor market.
Shouldn’t new unemployment claims actually be reported as a percentage of those currently employed?
I wonder if it is really moving down as rapidly when viewed through this ratio…
“Shouldn’t new unemployment claims actually be reported as a percentage of those currently employed?”
The labor force (= currently employed + unemployed, not discouraged) seems like the relevant denominator, as that is what goes into the unemployment rate calculation. But a tricky detail is that as employment begins to increase, so does the number ‘unemployed, not discouraged,’ as folks who gave up looking reenter the labor force.
Feb. 16, 2012, 8:49 a.m. EST
January housing starts rise 1.5%
By Ruth Mantell, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — New construction of U.S. houses rose in January, according to government data that analysts had expected would be boosted by unseasonably warm weather.
Housing starts for January rose 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 699,000, according to an estimate from the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a rate of 688,000 housing starts for January.
…
Do they publish how many of the new purchases are of the “buy and bail” variety? I am thinking no.
Feb. 15, 2012, 3:02 p.m. EST
Foreclosures rise 3%, logjam now breaking up
There are signs the foreclosure logjam is starting to break up. So says Daren Blomquist of RealtyTrac. He talks to John Wordock about a 3% rise for January, and what may lie ahead for California, Florida, Illinois and New York. Blomquist also says California has 9 of the 10 worst cities for foreclosures.
Unfortunately, in an era of extraordinary central bank intervention and “anti-deflation by whatever means necessary” policy, I suspect this writer is correct.
Feb. 16, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EST
Central banks: The risk is not taking the risk
By Michael A. Gayed
“Men cannot discover new oceans unless he has the courage to lose sight of the shore.” - Andre Gide
I had an interesting back-and-forth email conversation with Dominic Chu of Bloomberg Television earlier this week, and he brought up an idea I’ve heard expressed before regarding demographics. With millions of baby boomers retiring, the argument goes that there will be increased demand for income-oriented investments such as bonds and dividend-heavy stocks. This, in turn, serves as a longer-term drag on “risk assets” because money will keep preferring more stable companies instead of more “risky” growth stocks which generate much of their total return from going up in price, and not from dividends.
…
And this would prevent those multimillionaires from still taking those risks, why?
Rhetorical question. We know why. Because they’ve been playing with the 99%’s money all this time and not their own.
OPM
Ghost Towns
Spain is steadily becoming a nation of ‘ghost towns’ - with empty apartment blocks, streets and weed-filled gardens where bustling communities were supposed to move.
Entire housing estates built during the country’s boom years have been left abandoned, bricked up and now on sale for almost half their original price.
One such settlement is Sesena, dubbed the Manhattan of Madrid for its towering apartments and proximity to the capital, where 30,000 people were due to live.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2102074/Spain-haunted-ghost-towns-built-boom-years-unemployment-tops-5million.html#ixzz1mYi1DSsV
This is Guangzhou’s Central Business District, tossed up quickly at unimaginable expense to serve as a very Western-themed showcase for China’s amazing wealth. There’s one like it in most big Chinese cities, I’m told, and they’ve all sprung up in the last half-decade. We stayed at a hotel there and ate lamb chops and caprese salad as if it were the Westin Ottawa. Well, the Westin Ottawa on LSD.
The only thing missing was people. Let’s begin with the Guangzhou Friendship Store, a high-end retail outlet in the new town district
http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/02/16/china-postscript-ghost-town-pop-13-million/
Ireland
MEATH RESIDENTS TELL OF ‘NIGHTMARE’ ESTATE
Angry residents of the Maudlin Vale housing estate in Trim have voiceed their anger at the dangers of living on their unfinished “deathtrap” estate, the Meath Chronicle reports. They told this week of “nightmare” surroundings like exposed ESB cables, 10-feet deep holes in the ground, 30-foot high topsoil mounds, protruding manholes, open drains, derelict prefabs, builders’ rubbish, rusted wire fences and even rats in the estate just off the Trim ring road.
The houses were constructed by Baltra Developments Ltd, a firm owned by Kildare-based builder Gerry Skelly. Permission had been granted for 110 houses but only around 45 were built by the time the recession hit and it left the remainder of the site abandoned. Some of the houses, which were averaging prices of around €300,000 at the height of the boom, are now worth just over €100,000 – one selling recently for that amount was originally valued at €325,000.
Meath County Council said it is unable to comment on the Maudlin Vale estate for legal reasons as the estate is subject of a planning enforcement order.
And my favourite the Specials :- Ghost Town
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpYyqaSYLyw
His father, Jesus, is offering his apartment for sale at 108,000 euro, meaning he stands to lose tens of thousands of euros
You know it must be bad if Jesus is losing money!
it must be bad if Jesus is losing money
It’s OK because Jesus saves.
As one of my friends is fond of saying, “Jesus saves. Moses invests.”
LOL
It’s OK because Jesus saves.
LOL… Awesome one, Rio…
Remember, this is Hay-soos we’re talking about.
Apparently their Lucky Duckies (AKA the 1000 Euros a month jobs) can’t afford to buy real estate either.
their Lucky Duckies (AKA the 1000 Euros a month jobs)
I thought they could make more than that on the dole in Europe!
They are limiting benefit to £26000, per family in the UK, roughly $41,000 per annum and roughly 31,400 euro’s
MPs back plan for a £26,000 cap on benefits
Benefits will be capped at £26,000 a year after MPs backed the government’s plans.
Read more: http://www.metro.co.uk/news/889132-mps-back-plan-for-a-26-000-cap-on-benefits#ixzz1ma5r4vUu
An article about 1000 Euro per month jobs.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/17/us-europe-junkjobs-idUSTRE79G4RJ20111017
Ghost Town = Xlnt!
Home buying: Most affordable in decades
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-buying-most-affordable-decades-150500530.html
“Buying a home is now more affordable than it has been in the last twenty years.”
Unfortunately it wasn’t all that affordable 20 years ago either, it just wasn’t crazy expensive as it got during the bubble.
Unfortunately prices fell when there was record home ownership and now people are sitting on houses they can’t afford to sell, or they’ve seen massive drops in their net worth. They’ve seen their discretionary income fall and their job security take a hit.
Except that for younger generations, incomes are falling.
The bubble may have deflated and interest rates are low. But that doesn’t mean first time homeowners can afford to buy.
And anyone contemplating old age and looking at their retirement savings might not be in the mood to splurge on “move up” housing, either.
And anyone contemplating old age and looking at their retirement savings might not be in the mood to splurge on “move up” housing, either.
Precisely what’s happening in my parents’ nabe. It’s a move-up sort of place. Houses that are for sale have been that way for many months. One’s been on the market for a year.
Incomes are falling for everyone but the 1%.
Have been for 30 years.
Incomes are falling for everyone but the 1%.
This is why we need to lower the 1%’s taxes even more.
It’s simple:
The more we lower the 1%’s taxes the more jobs with falling income the 1% will create for us 99%.
So what’s your solution - communism?
Socialism for the 99% instead of just the obscenely rich. If only we could figure out a way to keep the government out of it….
In Detroit, Cleveland, or all the Oil Cities of flyover, maybe yes. As long as employment isn’t a factor in “home buying”.
There has never been a better time to buy!
Home buying: Most affordable in decades
News from the trenches. I’ve looked at three properties in the last week: 1 traditional sale, 1 foreclosure, and 1 short sale. All were nice homes and priced attractively, at least compared to existing inventory.
The traditional sale was on the market for a little over a week and is currently under agreement. The short sale was on the market for about 45 days and is currently under agreement. The foreclosure was on the market for a week and has 3 offers being presented to the bank. I was shocked that property was moving this quickly in Feb. Obviously sellers are trying to get ahead of the spring inventory crush, but I didn’t think there would be alot of competition at this point.
Defintiely a bit dissapointed, as I was ready to move on any of these properties, but I’m not willing to get in a bidding war… we’ll see if any of these properties fall out of contract.
Addresses as follows:
109 NEW BOSTON RD Fairhaven, MA 02719 - $339,000
29 DUNHAM RD Freetown, MA 02702 (foreclosure) - $375,000
3 NICHOLE MEGAN WAY Dartmouth, MA 02747 (short sale) - $299,900
Defintiely a bit dissapointed, as I was ready to move on any of these properties, but I’m not willing to get in a bidding war… we’ll see if any of these properties fall out of contract.
You’re wise to avoid the bidding wars. There were quite a few of them here during our peak bubble years. In some cases, I’ve seen the bidding war houses back on the market — for a lot less money.
And it’s gonna get alot more affordable….. ALOT more.
And it’s gonna get alot more affordable….. ALOT more
Funny that you mention that. When I went to look at the foreclosure mentioned above, I found a nice house, at the end of that same street, that looked abandoned. I did some research and found out that the previous owners had tried to sell it in 2009, then tried to short sell it in 2010. I looked at the land records and found out that they stopped paying in 2010 (a tax lien), and the foreclosure judgement was filed in Feb,2012. The mortgatge was owned by Wells Fargo.
This is part of that “shadow inventory” we hear about. A house in default that wasn’t foreclosed for almost 2 years and currently isn’t on the market. It seems the banks are severely limiting the inventory of higher priced homes in the hope of keeping prices higher than if they flooded the market with foreclosed supply. Why else sit on this property for 2 years… the subdivision is all higher-end 2000-4000 sqft homes, all built in the last 8-10 years. These properties are much nicer than the majority of housing stock in southeastern MA.
Northeasterner,
We’ve been sitting and waiting for a couple place to come on the market. They are exactly the kind of shacks you just described. Higher end, built in 2004, defaulted in 2008, sitting empty since late 2009.
In the mean time we keep earning cash, enjoying life and exposing Housing Crime Syndicate corruption.
“Home buying: Most affordable in decades.”
There’s that word, affordable, again and used in conjunction with houses. This will get the NAR-follower chatter going again. Ugh. The part they of course leave out is that when they say affordable, they mean the monthly payment. Affordable based on…financing.
Houses here, por ejemplo (always loved the sound of the Espanol version), are they most affordably PRICED they’ve been in…maybe 7 years. House I bought in 2000 for $170k recently sold for $275k. So, even though that’s off the high where I sold, where I want to buy we’re still about 60% higher than the year 2000.
The part they of course leave out is that when they say affordable, they mean the monthly payment. Affordable based on…financing.
Shhhhh! Don’t say this around the Housing Crime Syndicate! They’ll spirit you away to an undisclosed location.
60% higher than the year 2000
Why the fixation on 2000 prices? Personally I couldn’t understand how people were affording houses back in 2000, and that was before bubble prices really took off.
Having said that, my income is 47% higher today than it was in 2000, just in my salaried job. I can now afford that house that I thought was unaffordable back then, in part because mortgage rates were closer to 8% in 2000 and now run 3.5-4%. The other part of it is obviously the higher income… which could be attributed to a combination of inflation and increased experience. Bottom line, with interest rates and overall inflation, 60% doesn’t seem that bad.
To me, the bigger question is supply/demand and long-term interest rate direction… I can’t answer the supply/demand question for your area. As far as interest rates go, I’m gambling that ZIRP is here to stay for as long as it will matter (see Japan).
One thing to note, when I say “60% doesn’t seem that bad”., I mean based on the math of 12 years inflation and a 50% drop in interest rates.
If I do a simple (not compound) calculation of 3%/yr * 12 years, I get $231k. A difference of $44k. Now look at the drop in interest rates over that term… 170k@8% is 1247/mo. $275k@4% is $1312/mo…
“Why the fixation on 2000 prices?”
1. What fixation? That’s when I bought it.
2. Yes, rates were higher then. I get that, but…
3. I don’t want low rates, I want low prices. If I were to buy that same house today, I’d be tempted at about $225k.
If I were to buy that same house today, I’d be tempted at about $225k.
Sounds like a reasonable number… not too far from the year 2000 price + inflation figure from above. My guess is the $275k sale price is probably due to greater “affordability” from lower interest rates…
I don’t want low rates, I want low prices.
Talk to Ben Bernanke. He’s the man with the plan when it comes to rates… again, my educated guess is Japan 2.0: ZIRP Forever. I could be wrong. I think it was Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell who said the trip from 13% to 0% was a 1-way trip… kind of stuck with me.
“My guess is the $275k sale price is probably due to greater “affordability” from lower interest rates…”
That’s what i’m saying. And THAT is where my fixation lies. To me, affordability should come from income, not how-much-a-month financing.
So, even though that’s off the high where I sold, where I want to buy we’re still about 60% higher than the year 2000.
Remember, though—those are _nominal_ prices. Where should it be, adjusted for inflation based on the 2000 pricing?
Right, that was exactly what I was trying to get at… what should we use as a baseline target for inflation in order to determine a reasonable “pre-bubble” price target? I use 3%… I vaguely remember some information on this blog years back that showed long-term, houses tracking inflation. Seems reasonable to me, all other variables being equal (supply/demand, interest rates, etc).
That’s the guestimate that I usually use too…
Might be interesting to compare it to CPI-U as well, though…
See above, Prime. When I said “where I want to buy” I was talking about location, not price, although 2000 prices would be grand. I’d buy it today at about $225k, and not much more.
Again, low PRICES, not low rates, are what I want. Doesn’t look like I’ll get it though…
One other thought, while you’ve got to start somewhere and CPI would logically be that somewhere, what about stagnant to declining incomes? How does that factor in?
what about stagnant to declining incomes? How does that factor in?
At face value, I would say it should cause prices to come down, but I think it gets much more complicated than that.
I think the “home ownership rate” in the US is going to move back to the long term trend line, in part due to falling incomes (whether based on inflation or real declines). In conjunction with that, I see efforts by the government to sell distressed properties to deep-pocketed investors (aka investment funds) as a clear indication that much of the distressed inventory will become rental property long term (supply constraint), which also fits into my theory of more renters/less owners.
Having said that, I think we will continue to have a “class” of owner/buyer with the income to provide price support for the nicer “prime” homes… the gutting of the middle class seems to fit this. More renters at the bottom, fewer owners at the top, no middle to speak of. I see much of this in Massachusetts now: few homes worth owning, and the ones that are (higher-end/more energy efficient/newer), there is money to bid them.
I think location will be even more important going forward. Recent article in the Boston Globe talked about the mess that is Central Mass housing… well, there are no jobs to support housing there, so prices are cratering. 2+ hour drive to Boston with high gas prices and declining MBTA services will do that.
Lots of moving parts here. Population growth is another.
That said, my former house has “middle” written all over it. If what you say is, or will be, true, then why shouldn’t it be $170k again?
Foreclosures climbed in January
By Les Christie @CNNMoney February 16, 2012: 5:32 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Foreclosures picked up in January, yet another sign that the nation’s huge glut of delinquent homes may soon start making their way onto the market.
The number of homes hit with a notice of default, auction sale, bank repossession or some other foreclosure filing in January rose 3% since December, but it was still significantly lower than it was a year ago, according to RealtyTrac.
One in every 624 U.S. households, nearly 211,000 in total, got hit with some sort of foreclosure filing last month. That was down 19% since January 2011, the 16th month of consecutive declines.
While the declines seem like good news for the housing market, where the large number of foreclosed homes have depressed home prices, much of it was due to processing delays caused by fall-out from the robo-signing scandal that broke in late 2010.
Last year, banks spent more time making sure paperwork was legal and proper, creating a backlog in the foreclosure pipeline.
But now there are signs that “the frozen-up foreclosure process is beginning to thaw,” especially in some parts of the country, said Brandon Moore, CEO of RealtyTrac.
“Foreclosure activity increased on a year-over-year basis for the first time in more than 12 months in Florida, Illinois, Indiana and Pennsylvania, following a pattern we saw in late 2011 in states such as California, Arizona and Massachusetts.”
The $26 billion foreclosure settlement that the state attorneys general signed with the nation’s five largest banks should help move foreclosures more quickly through the pipeline.
…
Mortgage deal: What the critics say
By Chris Isidore @CNNMoney
February 10, 2012: 9:22 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — The $26 billion mortgage settlement had a lot of support — as evidenced by the 49 out of 50 state attorneys general that signed on to it.
The deal, which was announced Thursday, also won praise from groups as diverse as the Mortgage Bankers Association, the industry trade group for lenders, and the Center for Responsible Lending, a public interest group advocating for borrowers.
But it also has its share of critics on both the left and the right.
Conservatives called it overreaching on the part of the Obama administration, and say it rewards homeowners who haven’t been paying their home loans.
Some liberal groups say it falls far short of providing the needed level of help to troubled homeowners hurt by the housing bubble, problems they blame on Wall Street banks and investors. They want more relief for homeowners who owe more than their home is now worth, also known as being underwater on a mortgage.
The settlement was reached with the five largest mortgage servicers — Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) and Ally Financial.
The conservative case against the deal was voiced most clearly by Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt, the only state attorney general who didn’t sign onto the deal. He blamed President Obama for using the settlement to try to “fundamentally restructure the mortgage industry.”
Pruitt argues that it’s unfair that those who are both underwater and delinquent on their loans can apply to reduce the amount they owe. Meanwhile, underwater homeowners who are current in their payments can only refinance their existing loan at a lower interest rate.
He said that could encourage more homeowners to default on their loans so they could benefit from the settlement.
…
He said that could encourage more homeowners to default on their loans so they could benefit from the settlement.
Here in Tucson, the loan defaulters are donning their walking shoes. They’re not waiting around to be foreclosed. That’s because a lot of them are buy-it-to-rent-it-out in-VEST-ors who were hoping that the appreciation fairy would smile upon them. And she didn’t.
Much of the current crop of buyers consists of in-VEST-ors, so I expect the walking away to happen again in three to five years.
One guy is holding out, because the plan gives TOO MUCH to the Fubuyers?
That’s right, AG Pruitt. Make a stand on “principle”.
Heard an interesting one this weekend. Guy said he was called by his mortgage company back in 2005-2006, was told he HAD to do a refi on his current mortgage. Basically re-applied, then they brought the papers (100 plus pages) to the house for him to sign.
(I personally would have said something like “WTF are you a-holes talking about??” if I’d gotten a call like that; but I’m way too cynical about the FIRE industry’s motives/ethics)
Not way too cynical, fixer. Or, you might be, but not because of being suspicious of that deal. I will accuse you of having more than two brain cells to rub together, which I’m not sure applies to the guy you met over the weekend.
Guy said he was called by his mortgage company back in 2005-2006, was told he HAD to do a refi on his current mortgage. Basically re-applied, then they brought the papers (100 plus pages) to the house for him to sign.
Ah, yes. The old telling you that you HAVE to do something, followed by a paperwork signing ceremony at your house trick.
I’m with X-GSfixr. I would have said, “Whatsamatter with my current mortgage? You’re not making enough money off it?”
The hard-sell works great on the reharded [sic].
And that’s something that’s often overlooked here. In general, we’re a pretty sharp bunch. Which means that we are immune to a lot of sales pitches that snag others who aren’t so savvy.
Visited my former work domicile last weekend. I’ve known the guy in question for 20+ years. Nice guy, hard worker, but has a problem with assuming that everyone is basically honest. And would rather have someone else do the decision making for him.
IOW he believes the “Efficient Market” principle…..thinking the market will prevent this kind of thing from happening, because word of mouth will eventually put the cheats/crooks out of business.
Maybe it will. OTOH, if you know you aren’t going to jail, and if you can steal enough, quickly enough, it won’t matter if you are “caught”.
Joe Kennedy III announces run for Barney Frank’s seat…
I would want to seriously disinfect Barney’s seat before I sat in it.
And why would that be? Because of his orientation?
+1 Frank needs to go!! and I lean towards the Dem party.
I would want to seriously disinfect Barney’s seat before I sat in it.
I was under the impression that he was a topper.
I would agree if you were talking about Senator David Vitter.
LA Mayor a corrupt do-nothing politician is Obamas rising star !!!!!
The stench of City Hall’s corruption grows fouler by the day even as the mayor who has contributed so greatly to it becomes an ever more visible and important national political figure. It’s enough to give you a laugh – or a cry.
One day, it’s revelations about bribery in Building and Safety or the reckless spending of federal job creation funds for a million-dollar yacht to cruise the harbor. The next day it’s the outrageous salaries paid to DWP workers because of sweetheart contracts or the utter contempt shown voters across the city by the puppet commission drawing new Council district lines.
The ship of the city is springing leaks all over the place, yet the man at the top is on a roll.
Ever since August, when he raised more than $120,000 from the usual sources to pay fines and lawyers’ fees to end the yearlong beating he took over Ticket-gate, Antonio Villaraigosa has resurrected his political career to the point that he now talks about having “no plan” to run for higher office but hasn’t “ruled out” staying in politics after he leaves the mayor’s office in June 2013.
Perhaps Senator Villaraigosa or Governor Villaraigosa resonates for him, at least Secretary of Transportation for a re-elected President Obama.
At this point, it looks like we’ll have Antonio Villaraigosa to kick around a good while longer.
Go back to his speech in August to the Sacramento Press Club when he called for major reform of Proposition 13, saying it’s nothing but a “corporate tax giveaway … at the expense of homeowners” and taunted Gov. Jerry Brown by urging him to be “bold” and show “courage” by doing the right thing.
It was the start of the resurrection of Antonio as an elder statesman, a gutsy political visionary teaching a class in leadership at USC, the head of the National Conference of Mayors advocating on national television for cities and massive federal funding for transportation, and now chairman of the Democratic National Convention.
“I will be reaching out to Latino voters,” Villaraigosa told reporters in a conference call after announcement of his selection.
Who would have guessed that had something to do with it?
You got to give the man credit.
He savaged the public with soaring rates and charges on everything the city does and mortgaged the city’s future by cooking the books.
He has ignored how poverty and unemployment among Latinos and everybody else have gotten worse under his leadership and come up with one slogan after another to mask his well-documented failure: “Greenest city in America…Jobs, Jobs, Jobs…Football is back…”
He has chummed and partied with the rich and glamorous and become the smiley face of politics for the masses and he’s getting away with it.
It is politics as performance art without substance,the obama presidency.now this
“at least Secretary of Transportation for a re-elected President Obama.” = x1 of your fears
” a re-elected President Obama.”
Your “real real” fear.
All aboard Amtrak!
I think I’ve figured out where I was going wrong.
Went and saw Wicked last night, and there are a few lines that really rang accurate.
“Truth is not facts and figures. It is whatever people decide to believe.”
“We have this while set of lies that we choose to beleive. We call it history.”
“We dislike moral ambiguity, so we pretend it doesn’t exist.”
When viewed through this context, it is easy to see where I went wrong.
I can demonstrate over and over, provide references, show the data that clearly lays out the modern concept of money is simply the flip-side of debt. Irrelivant. People that have decided to believe that money is real wealth, will be unmoved by facts and figures.
Exaplaing that a trade imbalance can’t persist without unsustainable debt growth, and showing how the economy of the last 30 years has been funded by increasing each household’s share of total debt has increased from 2.8x median income to 6.5x median income is irrelivant as that is not the history they have chosen to be true.
Explaining how it is mathmatically impossible for those with debt to repay it, unless those with money first spend the money or others are generating even more debt/money, introduces moral ambiguity, which people do not like.
There’s an old saying: “There only on thing worse than being wrong and that’s being right first.”
People that have decided to believe that money is real wealth, will be unmoved by facts and figures.
I don’t argue that money is real wealth, but it appears to be readily exchanged for things that most people would consider “wealth”.
unless those with money first spend the money or others are generating even more debt/money, introduces moral ambiguity, which people do not like.
I think that the things you say are true at the macro level—we really can’t consume more more than we produce as a nation without sending debt overseas.
But then you take this truism and try to apply it, WITH moral judgement, at the micro level. I don’t think I’m doing anything wrong by saving, even if that means that someone else is choosing to rack up debt. That is their decision, and the fact that we are on opposite sides of a “trade” is not a moral issue, IMHO.
Is a “wealthy” person with a majority of their “wealth” held in stocks this amoral non-spending creature of evil of which you speak Darrel? I really don’t understand, because didn’t they technically spend their “anti-debt” buying stock?
Is a “wealthy” person with a majority of their “wealth” held in stocks this amoral non-spending creature of evil of which you speak Darrel?
Clearly their cash has moved on, to circulate elsewhere in the system, so “no”.
So what is Darrel trying to say then? The majority of “wealthy” people in this country are wealthy because they have assets that continue to generate passive income for them; stocks, bonds, t-bills, small businesses, real estate. So they are largely not holding “US federal reserve notes”. Again, his point seems pointless.
Darrel,
You speak of mathematical impossibility. Mathematics relies on logic and formal proof. You are basing your statement on non-mathematical unprovable legal “rules”. They are rules, really more like guidelines, that people at the Treasury dept and Federal Reserve use to control a FIAT currency here in the US of A. How can you possibly elevate your statement of “money is anti-debt” to the level of a mathematical rule like addition or subtraction when US FIAT currency is a high level system subject to something as fleeting as the whim of human will in our government?
I suggest you take a mathematical logic course to see what a real “proof” or “disproof” is.
What would stop the printing press of the US Treasury from printing $15,000 for each and every citizen of this country to do with as they please *without* issuing T-Bills to back the money? It is within the constitution of the United States for the congress to pass a law to do just such a thing and for the president to sign it. Even if it weren’t, the US constitution clearly provides a path to amend the constitution to allow such a rule. Therefore even the “rules” you base your statement on allow for the printing and distribution of currency without the issue of new (or old) debt.
You mistake a disagreement of your debt/anti-debt argument reasoning for something else. There is a name for the hole in your theory. Inflation. Countries have used inflation of FIAT currency since FIAT currency was invented to devalue debt held. In the past, I’ve also shown how the US currency was devalued essentially overnight when it WASN’T FIAT and was gold backed. In short, paper, whether gold backed or fairy dust backed has a lot of inherent risks to it, and everyone should be saving in assets diversified from gov’t paper.
‘Colbert Report’ off air; Comedy Central mum
Associated Press
NEW YORK — Comedy Central’s “Colbert Report” is off the air and it’s a mystery why.
An expected live version of the show was replaced by a repeat on Wednesday. Comedy Central said Thursday’s live show will be off, too.
The network said it was airing the repeats “due to unforeseen circumstances,”
Wall St. Journal says it was a family emergency. No other details.
Colbert v. the Court
Why, in the battle over Citizens United, the Supreme Court never had a chance.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2012/02/stephen_colbert_is_winning_the_war_against_the_supreme_court_and_citizens_united_.html
…in the history of the Supreme Court, nothing has ever prepared the justices for the public opinion wrecking ball that is Stephen Colbert. The comedian/presidential candidate/super PAC founder has probably done more to undermine public confidence in the court’s 2010 Citizens United opinion than anyone, including the dissenters. In this contest, the high court is supremely outmatched.
….Citizens United, with an assist from a 1976 decision Buckley v. Valeo, has led to the farce of unlimited corporate election spending, “uncoordinated” super PACs that coordinate with candidates, and a noxious round of attack ads, all of which is protected in the name of free speech. Colbert has been educating Americans about the resulting insanity for months now. His broadside against the court raises important questions about satire and the court, about protecting the dignity of the institution, and the role of modern media in public discourse. Also: The fight between Colbert and the court is so full of ironies, it can make your molars hurt.
That’s it. Colbert is “terrorizing” the US Supreme Court, has been arrested and shipped quietly to Guantanamo.
He’s just filling the roll of news editorial since the news never comments on anything. Stewart had a nice bit on the cover of Time magazine in the US vs the cover of Time magazine in other parts of the world.
A CEO, an Auditor, to$$ in a couple of Banker$ = a Japanese version of good ol’ fashioned American “Bidne$$” lunch $pecial: Chicken Noodle $oup
“suspected of helping hide huge investment losses through complex M&A deals.”
What’s thee quote soupe du jour: “It’s only illegal iffin’s you’ins breaks the law$”
Former executives, bankers arrested over Olympus fraud:
ReutersBy Mayumi Negishi and Nobuhiro Kubo | Reuters – 8 hrs ago
TOKYO (Reuters) - Four months after one of Japan’s biggest corporate scandals, police and prosecutors on Thursday arrested seven men, including the former president of Olympus Corp and ex-bankers, over their role in a $1.7 billion accounting fraud at the medical equipment and camera maker.
Tokyo prosecutors arrested ex-President Tsuyoshi Kikukawa, former Executive Vice President Hisashi Mori and former auditor Hideo Yamada on suspicion of violating the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law, officials said.
Also arrested were former bankers Akio Nakagawa and Nobumasa Yokoo and two others suspected of helping hide huge investment losses through complex M&A deals.
So, I was watching Survivor last night and the two tribes were split men vs. women. They were given 60 seconds to take supplies off the truck they arrived in. During the frantic melee one of the men decided to take some of the women’s supplies instead of getting them off the truck.
The man’s occupation - banker
Really, no kidding.
Kinda ballsey, their usual m.o. is to pay someone else to do that for ‘em, you know, stayin’ “Indemnified” and all.
I saw that, too.
You forgot the best part. In his little vignette he says, “it was so easy to do. I just had to take it.”
So, what does one do in Palm Springs, and/or San Diego, if a person has a afternoon/evening to burn?
“Palm Springs”
http://www.nps.gov/jotr/index.htm
http://www.pstramway.com/
(Unless you are a golfer…)
“San Diego”
aquarium.ucsd.edu/
http://www.sdzsafaripark.org/
http://www.balboapark.org/
http://www.soledadmemorial.com/
http://www.nps.gov/CABR/
http://www.sdbgarden.org/
http://www.dreamlajolla.com/la-jolla-shores-beach.html
http://www.missionsandiego.com/
Too many good choices, really!
Palm Springs [La Quinta, close by]
Hog’s Breath, Clint’s Place
Careful of the Robo-Signing hobgoblin….. he’ll sneak through your bedroom window and getchya!!!!
LOL…
Clipped from the Local Bakersfried,CA news section:
Elementary Teacher Allegedly Forces Students To Stand For Hours
Dr. Robert Jensen Named Interim President of Bakersfield College
Mobile Memorial Gets Veteran Escort
Dogs Severely Burned In House Fire
Senior Flash Mob
Hazardous Park Restroom Demolished
Man Accused Of Eating Cats Arrested
45th Annual World Ag Expo Gets Under Way
2 Pounds Of Meth Seized, 4 Arrested During Bust
(Just below it):
» More Local News | Most Popular
National And World News
Home Buying: Most Affordable In Decades
Buying a home is now more affordable than it has been in the last twenty years
But vaaiiit! there’s more …
10 Best Colleges For Hippies:
Are you a Birkenstock-wearing, self-professed tree-hugger? You’ll feel right at home at the 10 best colleges for hippies.
Let’s start an HBB guess list:
1. Texas A&M
2. Humboldt
3. Oral Roberts
1. Reed College
2. Evergreen State
3. College of the Atlantic
There has never been a better time to
buyexpose realtor corruption and trash the Housing Crime Syndicate.Joshua Tree Extension: Bug?
On eBay if I have to ask a seller a question I write the question in a textbox, but I also have to insert a numeric code based on a graphic depiction of numbers intended to thwart spammers. “For added security, please enter the verification code shown in the image.” Anyway, the graphic numbers don’t match what’s required. If I listen to the audio clip it says the correct numbers.
Anyone else?
Joshua Tree Extension: Bug?
Are you asking if the JTExtension is the source of the issue?
It’s easy enough to test - disable the extension. FF let’s you do that. But I would say I’m 99.99999999% sure that’s not the case. The JTExtension only does anything on sites within Ben’s domain: thehousingbubbleblog.com.
Email me directly if it doesn’t reproduce with the extension disabled.
It’s easy enough to test - disable the extension.
I disabled everything before posting. No problem with IE or Chrome. Looks like a weekend task. BTW, I really like using the JT extension as it makes follow-up(s) from previous days easy.
so you went to Tools->Add-Ons->Extensions, and clicked “Disable” alongside the JTE?
I have no clue how it could possibly interfere. It certainly doesn’t touch images in any way….all it does on load of a page is look at the URL of the page, and if it’s on the HBB does some magic to augment the page to make it awesome-r than it already was.
Glad to hear you like the extension. I’m very skeptical it’s causing a problem, but I’ve been in software long enough to know that even if you’re 100% certain it’s not your code, it can very well be your code =D
My check to the Treasury just cleared. BARF.
http://www.seahawkblue.com/images/smilies/barf.gif
Watch prices crater, then buy later.
And remember…. Realtors Are Liars.
Gentlemen, start your “repossession engines”.
Palm Beach County foreclosure filings soar 52 percent in past year
By Kimberly Miller
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 12:08 a.m. Thursday, Feb. 16, 2012
Lenders ramped up Florida foreclosures last month, an acceleration driven by continued robo-signing fixes and expected to hasten after last week’s
$25 billion mortgage settlement with the nation’s largest banks.
Statewide, foreclosure filings were made on 24,783 homes, a 14 percent jump from January 2011 and the first year-over-year increase in overall activity in more than a year, according to a report to be released today by the Irvine, Calif.-based firm RealtyTrac.
In Palm Beach County, overall foreclosure activity was down 4.5 percent in January from last year, but a 52 percent spike in initial filings affirms experts’ predictions that lenders are revving their home repossession engines.
“They will go full speed, pedal to the metal,” said foreclosure defense attorney Roy Oppenheim of Weston-based Oppenheim Law. “The settlement tells them how to do things and if they do it that way they are free to proceed.”
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/foreclosures/palm-beach-county-foreclosure-filings-soar-52-percent-2178789.html -
I’m revising my original estimate from this year to 2015 as to when the market will hit bottom. We have to go back to 1990 prices.
That’s it. There’s the new HBB T-Shirt!!
“Just wait, it will get worse.”
There’s the new HBB T-Shirt!!
I like it!