By David Benda
Posted February 19, 2012 at midnight
News reports suggest the economy is rebounding.
Unemployment in Shasta County and across the country is down, the Dow flirted with 13,000 last week, and housing starts locally and in the U.S. have ticked up.
But will rising gas prices slow the recovery?
It’s almost a sure bet the average price will be well over $4 a gallon before Memorial Day.
A gallon of regular unleaded in greater Redding averaged $3.88 on Friday, nearly a quarter higher than a month ago, according to AAA.
Shasta County relies a lot on those summer tourists flocking to its lakes and campgrounds. So those who make a market in our vacation economy give more than a passing glance to pump prices.
“I think we are seeing a little bit of nervousness definitely throughout industry,” said Jenny Zink, marketing director for Shasta Cascade Wonderland Association, a tourism group that promotes the region. “It’s kind of going back to that ’staycation’ kind of thing.”
Staycation is a term the industry coined a few years back in the bowels of this horrible recession. Can’t afford a trip to Hawaii or that Alaskan cruise? No worries. Stay home and take in the sights in your own backyard.
“I think as an industry we are thinking that staycation is going to come back around again,” Zink said.
Zink said something else that I’ve heard a lot from other business folks in recent years: At some point people may just have to get used to the “new normal” for gas prices.
“It is very scary and one of those things that is completely out of our hands,” she said. “What we try to do is show the value (tourists) get for coming here.”
As is typical for an MSM piece, they confuse a rising stock market fueled by massive Fed liquidity (near-free gambling money to its primary dealer accomplices) and an ever-diminishing number of retail investors whose pitiful savings interest rates are well below inflation, for an economic rebound. Meanwhile SNAP (food stamp) usage is hitting all time highs and the true unemployment rate is around 22%. Some recovery.
Public pensions, SNAP, generous health payouts, public higher education for illegals…all that costs Californians a lot of money, In Colorado. A dollar more for a gallon of gas only just begins to pay for it all.
It’s always interesting to hear stories from the coasts…things are different there. Energy costs. Health insurance costs for average citizens. Taxes. Rents. User fees. Food.
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Comment by In Colorado
2012-02-20 08:32:59
We have a lot of illegals and people on SNAP here too (isn’t SNAP funded by the USDA?).
What we do have here is TABOR (Taxpayers’ Bill of Rights) , which is yet again being challenged in court. TABOR limits spending growth to match inflation and population growth and places strict restrictions on raising taxes. In an interesting twist of fate, Douglas Bruce, the “father” of TABOR, was recently convicted and sentenced for tax evasion.
Comment by Posers
2012-02-20 13:23:34
Yeah, that is interesting.
Nonetheless, you’re lucky to have TABOR. The “official” inflation rate must be irksome so your state spenders, as inflation is quite a bit higher than what is reported.
Yet, Colorado hasn’t slid off the edge of the cliff, has it?
Comment by In Colorado
2012-02-20 15:31:14
Yes, the bogus reported inflation rate has to be affecting budgets. Colorado hasn’t slid off a cliff, but our funding for K-12 and higher ed is amongst the lowest in the nation. Administrators have learned to live on shoestring budgets at the K-12 level, while higher ed, whose share of the budget is actually shrinking, has resorted to annual tuition increases to cover lost state funding. Just 10 years ago a year’s tuition at most state U’s was under 3K. Now it’s as high as 8K. Colorado State U is considering privatizing as it expects to receive no state funding well before the decade is over.
What a lot of communities do in the state is they waive local sales taxes (via the ballot) from TABOR restrictions. This act is commonly referred to as “de-Brucing”. That said, it’s only the amounts collected that are de-Bruced, raising the sales tax rate still requires voter approval, and very rarely is that ever approved.
In general I like TABOR, as it keeps the state gov’t from going crazy. The downside is that when there are legitimate needs, the voters will almost always say no.
For instance we had a local referendum in our city that would have added $100 a year to the average property tax bill to restore K-12 funding to 2009 levels. It went down in flames, with comments in the local newspaper’s editorial section saying that the school district had to tighten its belt. So the school district proposed closing two elementary schools (including laying off their entire staffs). Needless to say, that didn’t go over well with parents. Anyway, it goes to show the two extremes.
” Average retail gasoline prices in Denver have risen 0.9 cents per gallon in the past week, averaging $3.02 on Sunday, according to Patrick DeHaan, senior petroleum analyst for GasBuddy.com.”
I don’t even look at the price anymore…Its to frustrating and there is nothing I can do about it….
Side note…On my annual trip to the sprawling metropolis of French Camp California…I mentioned last year that there was a significant increase in the amount of full time residents in there RV’s & Trailers…Well, that increase has continued…It appears about 1/2 of the park is now full time…Sign of the times…
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Comment by Awaiting
2012-02-20 10:29:39
I saw an ad for the Mitsubishi i electric vehicle yesterday (online) and it charged for 62 miles at 22 hours. It was $21K and change. Why even bother. I’ll wait for Tesla to come out with a viable inexpensive ev. Meanwhile, my old Volvo costs me $200/mo to fill. She might be long in the tooth, but she’s paid off and functional.
Comment by scdave
2012-02-20 10:45:14
If Tesla figures it out and then get scale watch out…A few people have told me that Tesla is attracting he brightest of minds in this research…
Slab City, in the California badlands, is filling up with “beneficiaries” of hope ‘n change.
Comment by Liz Pendens
2012-02-20 11:35:35
Look out. Bright minds being put to work on scams and schemes seems to be more popular now than any other intellectual effort being put forth.
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-02-20 12:11:14
Look out. Bright minds being put to work on scams and schemes seems to be more popular now than any other intellectual effort being put forth.
Preach it!
Friend of mine is working for a social media startup. He thinks that the company’s business plan is of the “day late/dollar short” variety, yet he continues to report to work. He’s not exactly the team player type, but they need him.
He’s getting ready for the inevitable crash and burn.
Comment by Awaiting
2012-02-20 13:37:37
I think Tesla was smart to partner with Toyota for the ev market. Tesla’s battery technology is going somewhere (and don’t tell me the trash). Love Tesla or not, the *Model S is a winner. It’s just too expensive for us right now.
(*300 miles on a 45 mintue charge)
cactus
How is the short sale deal coming along?
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2012-02-20 20:40:44
Not one suggestion about blaming Obama for this rise in gas prices, and no one even talking about the impact of speculators. The usual whiners and complainers in the MSM and elsewhere are so willing to keep quiet when the D party is in power.
The word “Recovery” means that things seem to have stopped freefall. It’s hopeful. I see a little more hope in my business than previously, just slightly. The HBB edginess to buy meter is also ticking up. Personally, I view recovery as a return to normal, which will take more chemo.
We haven’t hit Peak Foreclosures yet, as far as I can tell. There would be a second huge free fall after that, and then probably a third following on, before piercing the pre bubble plateau.
All of the bubble jobs will be wiped out. It is sad that we wasted several decades creating unsustainable jobs, but there you go. Then we can start to figure out what the muse means when he asks “What will the post bubble economy look like?”
No one has ever been able to give me a reasonable answer as to why we have the most expensive gas prices in the country (except maybe New York or Hawaii).
No one has ever been able to give me a reasonable answer as to why we have the most expensive gas prices in the country (except maybe New York or Hawaii).
1. Where does your supply originate?
Hint: Think about where refineries are located around the Bay Area and the rest of the state. Then think about whether it would be possible to increase California refining capacity by building new refineries in locations where they don’t currently exist.
2. How do California gas taxes compare to those in other places?
3. Are there any special requirements on how California gas is produced and delivered that drive up costs relative to other states?
I always suspected that the price fluctuations starting around Katrina were an attempt by the petroleum industry to find a new maximum profit point - price x quantity. They have a lot of data now and it seems like the current price point has held for a while. I’m guessing this price point will hold for a while, till the industry sees a reason to readjust its price x quantity equation.
LAWLESS is a tough word to work into a song. Got to go to work early so I can be sure my DB LL has that extra $1,700 to cover his bills. I`ll check back tonight.
I am reminded of an editorial cartoon I saw decades ago.
A large mob is marching and protesting. You see them from behind. Each and everyone of the has a shoe mark on their butt. They are all carrying signs with the same shoe mark inside the internation crossed out red circle symbol.
I’m guessing that’s how realtors are feeling these days (along with a lot of other people).
As this is President’s Day and the markets are closed, it is time for something that will require contemplation.
Pull up a chair; it may require more than one sitting.
We shall start with what I call the “3% Solution.” This is the premise that Ben Bernanke loves to run. He of course argues that it’s a 2% solution, but it rarely is. I am speaking of the intentional inflation that he fosters through the monetary system, an inflation that under the black-letter law of The Federal Reserve Act is a violation, albeit one without a penalty clause. As such he can do as he will, since this “law” has the same import as does a “law” against bank robbery with no penalty attached (the line for robbery stretches out the door and down the block in such an instance, of course.)
I’m going to pick on 110 years as my time frame. This is not an accident, of course; 100 years is approximately the age of the Federal Reserve, and the next 10 are the ones in which we will either stop this or perish as a nation.
The real crime, IMHO, isn’t the inflation. It’s the understating of inflation to avoid having to pay realistic COLA for SS/salaries/etc. Inflation is the only way out of this mess. If you have too much fixed rate debt, and I double everyone’s salary (simple example) and double the cost of everything at the same time, now, suddenly, everyone’s debt load is 1/2 what it once was and their spending is identical. Yes, all kinds of other problems arise from this, but, in the Fed’s narrow view of the world, “problem solved”.
The bigger issue is that if inflation is 10% and you state it at 2%, you’re “robbing” most people of 8% a year in salary. Anybody getting cost of living adjustments suddenly, at the end of the year, is 8% poorer.
Riddle me this batman..
Housing payment = 30% of income
Housing prices = 30% YOY inflation (during the boom)
Inflation = 2%!??!
It’s almost mathematically impossible to wind up at those numbers unless everything else in the basket is going down (which it wasn’t), or you’re not using real numbers (owner’s equiv rent, WTF is that? Can I buy a house with that fairy tale)?
If the Fed would state inflation honestly, things would be much more stable and controlled. When prices go up 10-30% YOY on the single most expensive item in most people’s budgets, you need emergency tightening measures (assuming you’re targeting 2-3%)!
I knew back in the 90’s that using owners-equivalent-rent to represent housing cost was bogus and was being used to suppress the official inflation rates. It was made worse by the changes in the tax code that exempted capital gains on houses sold if you rolled over the gains into more RE.
“…now, suddenly, everyone’s debt load is 1/2 what it once was and their spending is identical. Yes, all kinds of other problems arise from this…”
Does your ‘everyone’ include grammy and grampy, who have to buy food and other household necessities on a fixed-income pension? Don’t know about their debt load (hopefully they have a paid-off mortgage and own their home free and clear), but it seems their real income and spending are now 1/2 what they once were.
As long as inflation is correctly stated, their fixed income pensions should adjust for cost of living. The problem is when the government says inflation is 2% (and therefore, granny gets a 2% bump in her monthly check) when, in fact, inflation is 10%. Granny just got 8% poorer. If inflation is 30% and granny get’s a 30% bump, it’s zero sum.
“…their fixed income pensions should adjust for cost of living.”
Fixed income pensions don’t adjust for cost of living — by definition, there are no COLAs in a fixed-income pension. Perhaps you were confusing my point about fixed-income pensions with Social Security?
Comment by Blue Skye
2012-02-20 07:32:37
“Fixed” income does not have a COLA. Gramps here does not see an adjustment in his passbook account from Uncle Sam.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-02-20 09:00:05
“Fixed” income does not have a COLA. Gramps here does not see an adjustment in his passbook account from Uncle Sam.
And when retirees were only expected to live a few short years in retirement, it wasn’t an issue. But now, living to be 90 or more isn’t unusual anymore. 20+ years of inflation can take their toll, big time. And nest eggs are steadily eaten away.
Comment by FB wants a do over
2012-02-20 09:17:57
+10^10
Inflation wouldn’t be an issue if granny would just stick to buying iPads and iPhones instead of food, water, and heat. What was she thinking?
Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Fl)
2012-02-20 10:21:55
Yes, but you are overlooking the biggest bills that granny has: medical care, and Obama and the democrats have “fixed it”.
For a single annual payment of a few thousand dollars, granny can get all the medical care she needs, even if it costs hundreds of thousands of dollars, because, well, the government has mandated it.
And if she runs low on cash, then she can get FREE FOOD via the SNAP (supplemental Nutrition Assistance program) i.e. Food stamps via EBT cards, so that cost is taken care of.
It seems that granny is much better off then you think.
What I still haven’t figured out is how you provide vastly higher “services” for food and medical care and not raise taxes or run deficits into eternity?
Even better, we’ve got about 30 Million people (government figures) who didn’t have medical insurance and now they will, and this will save us money. That’s the story, anyway.
How anyone could buy into such nonsense is most amazing, but then I witnessed the “madness of crowds” during the Obama Immaculation. So, I guess you can tell any story that sounds really nice and people will believe it if they want to bad enough.
Comment by polly
2012-02-20 10:53:33
“the biggest bills that granny has: medical care, and Obama and the democrats have “fixed it”.”
Obama and the recent democratic majority congress created Medicare? Really?
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2012-02-20 10:54:13
The Boomer and AARP bloc has no qualms about voting themselves benefits that are going to be laid to the account of future taxpayers, or paid for using debased Bernanke Bux.
Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Fl)
2012-02-20 11:02:11
More ridiculous commentary? You know damned well that I’m talking about the “healthcare bill” currently being reviewed by the US Supreme court. And, I am sure that you know that JOHNSON, another big-spending, war-on-poverty, great society, DEMOCRAT brought us the current disaster of never ending government solutions, biggest of which was medicare.
Snarky comments don’t do much good when the same party of stooges was charting course to society wreckage. It’s still the same party of careless and incompetent navigators. Full speed ahead. Not to excuse, of course, that fraud, George Bush for the MEDICARE part D, prescription ad on.
We all know he was an embarrassment to any true conservative.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-02-20 11:07:30
The Boomer and AARP bloc has no qualms about voting themselves benefits
While kvetching at Tea Party rallies (sitting in their Medicare provided scooters) that gov’t is too big and taxes are too high.
FED inflation IS the problem. You have a laundry list of “adjustments” to make it all “Fair”. How does the government come up with the extra money to adjust higher payments to SS?? Higher prices for “medical care”? Food programs??
Raise taxes? Print more money (inflation on inflation)?
And you assume, much to my derision, that Mortgages and those who hold “fixed term” paper are only banks and money launderers.
What if your Retirement plan was to LOAN your savings as mortgages or fixed income annuities??.. You don’t get a ‘new payment adjustment’. You are on the losing side of the trade. Your retirement just got inflated away.
Your entire approach takes the side of the borrower and lets the lender, who most likely would be older, nearing-retirement workers who have SAVINGS they wish to ‘invest’ be the LOSER on the ‘wiping out the debt’ side of the problem.
Why should someone who worked hard and saved get their savings and income demolished via inflation?
I learned a long time ago, in my amusing studies of Murphy’s Laws and that of Unintended Consequences, You can’t Change X, without affecting Y and Z.
You, as a fixer of things, have decided who should get fixed and who should get screwed, and I would be one of those getting screwed, as my savings, which will not return 30% will buy much less than what I worked for.
Thank you for providing others with the needed insight to use mob rule to fleece those who worked most of their adult (and in my case, childhood) lives and managed to save a portion thereof. You are the friend of government parasites who think whenever things change, they should get an “increase” and we never need to cut back on the ‘benefits’. WE just need to ‘inflate away” the bad investments. Sorry. Welcome to the New Greece.
Bought a car battery lately? Went in for one in Wal-Mart over the weekend, and the prices are up at least 50% in just two years! Nobody uses car batteries, so I guess everything is ok.
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Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-02-20 11:48:43
You must be confused. There are several people here who will tell you that inflation is nowhere near that high.
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-02-20 13:45:20
…but I’m not one of them.
The rise in prices have taken from me what would have been a very decent paying job into just another job that gets me by.
I received a $100 a week raise only to see it completely negated in the last 2 years. That’s $5200 in on year. The price of a decent but small used car. Or a very nice overseas vacation. Or a move up to a nicer apt. Or new furniture. etc, etc…
Something to always consider is that the money supply may need to be expanded due solely to population expansion. Maybe another way to say the same thing is we have a population inflation problem. If the world has a built-in population growth rate of just 3% it only takes a few decades to double but if you keep the money supply constant will the free markets distribute wealth and labor correctly in order to maintain social stability? I have my doubts. My bigger worry is that all the ‘digital’ money will be compromised by a cyber war.
The MSM’s “All is well, markets are rising, re-elect Obama” meme fails to mention the very dangerous and disturbing parallels to the 1930s playing out in Europe.
Greece’s unemployment bomb has detonated. After a deceptive calm, the surge in job losses since last summer is shocking even for those who never believed that combined fiscal and monetary contraction could possibly lead to any result other than ruin.
A variant of this lies in store for Portugal as its “internal devaluation” starts in earnest. The young Schumpeterians in charge of the Portuguese economy insist otherwise - cocksure that shock therapy will triumph without the cushion of debt relief and devaluation - but events have a habit of demolishing dreams.
In November alone 126,000 Greeks lost their jobs in a country of 11 million, equivalent to three and a half million Americans in a single month. The unemployment rate jumped from 18.2pc to 20.9pc.
This has not yet fed through into social breakdown. Greeks receive unemployment support for an average of thirty weeks, with a ceiling of €454 a month, according to Professor Manos Matsaganis from Athens University. Those with civil service tenure are placed on labour reserve for two years at half their basic pay, or a third of their actual pay.
Once these cushions are exhausted, Greeks are on their own. The monthly ratchet effect will then become painfully evident. It is why the Orthodox primate Hieronymos II warned in a letter to the prime minister that ever further doses of the same “deadly medicine” is becoming dangerous.
“The voices of the desperate, the voices of Greeks are being provocatively ignored. Fear is giving way to rage and the risk of a social explosion can no longer be ignored by those who give orders and those who execute their lethal recipes,” he said.
The debts of the spendthrift will be visited upon his children and grandchildren.
The Greeks are not suffering from a lack of willingness to borrow from the future, they are suffering from other’s unwillingness to lend to them what they cannot pay back. What’s the lesson for us?
Alpha, I still believe in the “general welfare” clause of the Constitution. And in our individual obligation to extend help to those in need, provided they didn’t get there through rank irresponsibility and are trying to help themselves, too.
This article was about the dangers of fiscal austerity measures during extreme economic (debt) crises. It wasn’t about privately-run soup kitchens for the poor.
Thanks for that article, Sammy. I’ve been following the situation in Greece, and find it interesting that many of my (educated and usually well-informed) friends have not.
This was one of the points that really struck me:
“Mr Papademos warns that default and EMU-exit would lead to “uncontrollable economic chaos”. But is that not already the case? No Greek bank has been able to issue a letter of credit accepted anywhere in the world since November. Large Greek companies are having to relocate their headquarters to Bulgaria in order to conduct basic trade.”
The UK press and Asia Times are telling some inconvenient truths about the deteriorating situation in Greece and the rest of the PIIGs, which aren’t going to be fixed by this much-ballyhooed “bailout” of which virtually all will be going to Greece’s creditors, not the increasingly destitute population.
Gasoline will soon be approaching the dreaded $4 “freakout” level as gold is up $10 so far today. Reminder: Bernanke and Central Banks can’t print oil or gold.
A lot of them have. Total gasoline consumption in the U.S. is down. A year ago this week we consumed 8.81 million barrels a day. This past week we consumed 8.167 million barrels a day. That’s almost a 10% decline in one year, even though the economy is a bit better now than it was a year ago.
Bill is correct. And not just this year, but a steady decline over the last several years as well as an increase in reserves.
We’re being screwed and a screwed hard by the speculators… again.
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Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2012-02-20 11:04:34
If you drive to work in a Suburban or H2 or some such monstrosity, and you work in an office, you deserve to pay through the nose every time you fill the tank.
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-02-20 13:46:26
Yeah, but those are the people who can afford to not care.
Good post. Thought that it might be ethanol production but not according to the charts. Hard to believe when the neighbor just bought a giant 4×4 truck that he drives to LA and back (500 mile round trip) every week and the wife goes grocery shopping in an 8 banger Giant SUV and they go off roading twice a month.
Maybe my epically stupid 30 mile bike ride over the grade this weekend offsets them!
Hard to believe when the neighbor just bought a giant 4×4 truck that he drives to LA and back (500 mile round trip) every week and the wife goes grocery shopping in an 8 banger Giant SUV and they go off roading twice a month.
They’re likely not saving a plug-nickel for retirement either.
Is the US consumption numbers include the US military? As the wars ramp down I would hope our total petroleum use would contract from this alone. Even if it does I’m pretty sure the total miles driven has declined too so there is a real decline in gas use.
Your point is well taken. What I do wonder is if this is because we are driving smaller cars, or simply driving less.
I also realize that my nabe in Rocky Mtn West isn’t typical of the nation, with either a truck or big azz SUV in every other driveway.
Nevertheless, the F-150 and the Silverado are the two best selling vehicles in the USA. Of the top 10, only 2 are “gas sippers” (Corolla and Cruze). 8 of our top 10 would be considered “thirsty” in Europe.
I also realize that my nabe in Rocky Mtn West isn’t typical of the nation, with either a truck or big azz SUV in every other driveway.
No, I think that’s pretty typical of almost everywhere in the US, with the possible exception of some inner city nabes, where you’ve gotta park on the street.
Something I’ve noticed in my nabe- some people who drive SUVs/trucks seem to only have friends who drive SUVs and trucks. When they have a party or get-together, every single vehicle there is either an SUV or a truck.
That puzzles me. I guess it’s peer pressure at work.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-02-20 10:08:19
No, I think that’s pretty typical of almost everywhere in the US, with the possible exception of some inner city nabes, where you’ve gotta park on the street.
I’m not so sure. I’ve been out to Winston-Salem, NC a few times in the past few months (my mother became very ill and passed away a few weeks ago).
One thing that struck me when I was out there was the dearth of pickups compared to my neck of the woods. My brother lives in Raleigh, and when I stayed at his place for a few days I also noticed the dearth of pickups in his nabe. I even asked him if no one drove pick ups out there. He said that if your went out to the sticks that you’d see some.
Contrast this with my street, where people living in 400K houses (definitely high end in my little burg) all seem to have trucks and Suburbans in their driveways.
Comment by scdave
2012-02-20 10:29:47
Sorry to hear about your mom Colorado…
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-02-20 10:37:02
Something I’ve noticed in my nabe- some people who drive SUVs/trucks seem to only have friends who drive SUVs and trucks. When they have a party or get-together, every single vehicle there is either an SUV or a truck.
That puzzles me. I guess it’s peer pressure at work.
Interesting observation. One of my coworker is a pretty hardcore offroad truck type. He’s a great guy, but it seems to actually disturb him a bit that I know a little about his hobby and still have no interest in getting my own truck to do it with him. It’s like he’s never met anybody who has offroaded a bit in the past and chooses not to devote their life to it.
Comment by Moman
2012-02-20 10:47:11
It takes about 14 years to turn over the vehicle stock in the US. There are still a large number of 2000-2006 SUV’s on the road, having been built during the SUV boom. But the numbers are finally changing for the better, as more of the SUVs are retired and replaced with smaller cars. Even a 2012 Ford Explorer gets 27 MPG on the highway, where a 2002 Ford Explorer with the same capability got 17 MPG.
I’ve noticed less of the large SUVs and more of the mid-size ones, which is a false economy, noting from personal experience that a 2011 Suburban gas consumption is roughly equal to a 2011 Jeep Liberty, which is 1/2 the size.
InColorado, you need to get out to Florida sometime. Especially south Florida, which is 250 miles away from anywhere that 4×4 would be needed - every other car is a jacked up 4×4.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-02-20 11:17:30
Even a 2012 Ford Explorer gets 27 MPG on the highway, where a 2002 Ford Explorer with the same capability got 17 MPG.
I took a looksie at that on edmunds. With the V6 engine that number drops to 23 mpg with AWD.
In any case, in most countries 27 mpg hwy is considered “thirsty”
What you are witnessing is a lie in the economic numbers. The economy is not improving. Gasoline consumption is down because people are driving less miles, typical indication of a weak economy.
The “fleet” of cars has not substantially changed the Average MPG over the course of the last few years. The buyers of Prius and other Fuel efficient (though they have found they have been lied to about the actual mileage) are not sufficient to reduce overall consumption but by a fraction, unless they are the only ones putting high mileage on the vehicles, and everyone else drives 5 miles a day.
It’s just like the unemployment numbers. When you reduce the number of people on the roles, you get much better data. The people are still unemployed, but you change the reason: Not trying. Newly retired. and the newest BIGtime increase: DISABLED. Yes, gang, lots of new filings for disability, the retirement plan that pays and pays, without ever having to re-apply for unemployment, and has a higher RATE than SS if you actually get to age 67. You can collect the FULL amount at age 50, because, well, you just can’t really go back to work anymore. So, yes, the “employment numbers” are improving, because some many others are collecting cash in other areas of deficit spending government programs.
If you listen to the MSM, the economy is better because of fewer filings for UE insurance. Check the number of filings for “disability”. It’s reached record highs.
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Comment by Posers
2012-02-20 13:51:17
People also have forgotten that this has been a very warm winter in the USA.
Not so much so in Europe - record cold and lots of snow.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-02-20 15:41:02
“People also have forgotten that this has been a very warm winter in the USA.”
Not me. The heating bill has been nice and low this year.
I’m guessing that consumption is down because unemployed people (especially those who have expended their jobless benefits are no longer show up in the fake BLS stats) aren’t driving to work or any other unnecessary destination these days.
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Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Fl)
2012-02-20 11:36:04
I am one of those you describe. My biggest monthly expenses are property taxes, insurance and GASOLINE.
I have driven my Mustang (6 cyl/5 spd) less than 3000 miles in the past year.
Previously I had driven an average of about 20,000, mixed with other vehicles.
I own 3 motorcycles that get 2x the mileage. My ridership on them is up 400% or so. I don’t drive a car or van anywhere I don’t need to haul something, and often buy small amounts of groceries or supplies via motorcycle with sidebags and backpack.
I have cut MY fuel consumption by about 1/3 or better, since I still need the larger vehicles on occasion (weather, bulk items).
My 30 mpg sedan affords me the same “freedom” as a 12 mpg pickup truck. I insert the key, it starts and I drive to my destination.
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Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Fl)
2012-02-20 10:45:52
My 30 mpg sedan affords me the same “freedom” as a 12 mpg pickup truck. I insert the key, it starts and I drive to my destination……………
Which assumes, of course, that the sole purpose of the vehicle is as a conveyance of persons. In many cases that is true. In many cases with truck/SUV owners, that is true, also.
However, I have owed trucks/vans/trailers, and still do, as they provide “TOOLS” for hauling equipment and materials.
For City folk, who do nothing but shuffle papers and take phone calls and do office work, there is no need for a truck.
Unless, they have hobbies or other jobs that require moving stuff, like building materials. And if you do own a pickup or van, you will find that many people who don’t will often impose on you to move stuff for them when it won’t go into the back or on top of their car. Most car owners, don’t also own trailers.
One size never fits all.
I see a trend for more ‘independence’ in the economic data. Just as we see an increase in the ’survivalist’ arena, I think truck ownership is up because people sense they may need to make a haul to someplace away from the MOBS that infest cities. You can’t carry many supplies in a Prius, and you’d be hard-pressed to live in one.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-02-20 11:01:57
I can understand that a tradesman could use a truck. And those are easy to identify. The truck has the businessname printed on the doors, there’s real stuff being hauled in the bed. Kind of like in the commercials where the John Wayne type drives off in his cinderblock laden truck.
In the real world I see shiny, unscratched trucks that are obviously used as cars by guys who work at desks, tapping on keyboards.
I think truck ownership is up because people sense they may need to make a haul to someplace away from the MOBS that infest cities
A more plausible explanation is seen in the message the commercials give: real MEN drive trucks.
Haul away from the MOBS? To where? Upper Saskatchewan?
Comment by drumminj
2012-02-20 11:15:03
My 30 mpg sedan affords me the same “freedom” as a 12 mpg pickup truck.
Will your 30mpg sedan get you down a snowed-in forest service road to go cross-country skiing or snowshoeing?
I’m not saying one needs a one-ton V8 dually for such things, but cars that can get you out to the crag on the weekend, or get you up the mountain, or can handle forest service roads in all seasons don’t always get the best gas mileage.
Around here (Seattle) a large percentage of folks do those kinds of activities. And therefore purchase vehicles that can enable them, even if they only go out once a month.
Comment by Moman
2012-02-20 11:21:44
95% of my driving is solo. Interesting that when I drove a Corvette, a car that got 23 MPG in town, and 35 MPG on the highway, I was driving a “gas guzzler” V8.
The days of owning a SUV for show are over, just like the days of the 3500 sq ft. McMansion. Some people are still stuck in payments, others in the image/lifestyle. $5/gal gas will change that.
Comment by ahansen
2012-02-20 12:28:30
“…Will your 30mpg sedan get you down a snowed-in forest service road to go cross-country skiing or snowshoeing?”
Neither will a duelly or a standard-tranny pick up. That’s why so many mountain folk drive those 30 MPH Subarus. (If it’s clearance you’re referring to, presumably that’s what the Nordics and baskets are for?)
Comment by In Colorado
2012-02-20 12:45:59
Will your 30mpg sedan get you down a snowed-in forest service road to go cross-country skiing or snowshoeing?
I live in Colorado and I’ve never needed a big azz truck.
The bottom line is that most guys don’t buy a 4×4 pickup to:
Go snowshoeing
Go offroading
Drive on forest service roads
Tow a trailer
Haul stuff
They buy it because it’s a manhood extender.
Comment by oxide
2012-02-20 16:11:51
go cross-country skiing or snowshoeing?
No you silly goose. We’re all staycationing, remember?
And you know, it’s pretty funny that on blog heavy with house renters, not one of them has suggested renting an SUV when you need it. Yeesh.
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2012-02-20 18:21:54
And you know, it’s pretty funny that on blog heavy with house renters, not one of them has suggested renting an SUV when you need it.
I simply can’t conceive of ever needing it.
Comment by drumminj
2012-02-20 23:27:55
That’s why so many mountain folk drive those 30 MPH Subarus
My subaru gets nothing close to 30mpg. In fact, the mileage is just a hair better than my 1999 V6 4Runner gets. Needless to say I’m a bit disappointed.
it’s pretty funny that on blog heavy with house renters, not one of them has suggested renting an SUV when you need it.
I’m surprised that hasn’t come up either. Sure, renting makes sense for moving. But it doesn’t make sense for “hey, we got a crapload of snow overnight. I’m going to take tomorrow off and go skiing/snowshoeing/make some bad-ass snow-devils!”
BTW, speaking of clearance, I got high-centered last time I went snowshoeing in my Subaru which has 9″ of clearance. My truck would’ve been a much more suitable vehicle.
If America could kick the gas guzzler habit, we might be able to resist neo-con pipe dreams of installing pro-western “democracies” in the Middle East, courtesy of our military.
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Comment by drillboss
2012-02-20 12:58:44
Why does the choice of vehicle get everyone so fired up? As a society we all make choices as to how to spend our money. I don’t get upset that others spend their income on Superbowl tickets or high-end furniture or horses or a $4 Latte every morning…so why does the choice of vehicle excite everyone so? In each case, there are others who think almost any spending choice is poor, as compared to their own choices.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-02-20 15:43:57
The problem is that we have to send our military to the middle east to ensure the oil spigot doesn’t get shut off. And that costs a LOT of money.
Comment by MrBubble
2012-02-21 10:32:06
“Why does the choice of vehicle get everyone so fired up?”
Because every dollar is a vote and by buying/driving an SUV you are casting a vote for a degraded environment and continued dependence on foreign oil and its attendant issues.
“I don’t get upset that others spend their income on Superbowl tickets or high-end furniture or horses or a $4 Latte every morning”
I do get upset. They are grasshoppers fiddling away and we are the ants saving up. Who will have to bail out whom eventually?
Prices at the pump are shooting up again. They are about to blow past $4 a gallon.
The Automobile Club of Southern California reported Friday that prices had reached an average of $3.99 in San Diego County for regular gasoline.
And the cost of filling up had reached $3.95 per gallon in the Inland Empire region of Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
Placing that in perspective, both areas are a half dollar higher than they were this time last year, the club said.
Elsewhere in Southern California, average prices hit $4 a gallon in Los Angeles and $3.99 a gallon in Orange County.
“Unfortunately, even without this large increase, prices were already at record levels for February,” said Auto Club spokesman Jeffrey Spring in a written statement. “If prices continue to increase at this pace, most areas will have averages above $4 a gallon in the next week.”
Spring said price boosts aren’t unheard of in February, but they are more common in March and April.
And prices tend to peak around May.
In other words, we could be in a for a really rough year when it comes to the cost of fuel.
Now that we’re poised to soar past the $4 ceiling, well before spring arrives, the march to that dreaded threshold of $5 a gallon could be on.
…
Now that we’re poised to soar past the $4 ceiling, well before spring arrives, the march to that dreaded threshold of $5 a gallon could be on.
One thing that surprised me was how expensive gas was over the winter in “low tax”, “right to work”, “business friendly” North Carolina. 50 cents more than in the Centennial state.
A Chinese hard landing is about as likely as a comet destroying Earth There are two types of asset bubble: those which are easy to isolate and deal with, and those which pose significant systemic risk to an economy.
A Chinese hard landing is about as likely as a comet destroying Earth Raising the currency also incentivises companies to invest for domestic demand rather than for export, which conveniently fits China’s long term goal. Photo: AFP/GETTY
By Jerome Booth
7:30PM GMT 19 Feb 2012
China, like many economies from time to time, has some bubbles of the first type. They also have the policy tools to deal with them, and the wherewithal to employ them.
They do not have systemic risk problems of the kind currently still faced in the deleveraging West.
The chance of a Chinese hard landing, while technically possible, is up there with being hit by a comet big enough to cause dinosaur extinction. It is as near to a fantasy as economic prediction gets, albeit a convenient fantasy for those wanting to hang onto the tenuous argument that the developed world is still safer than the emerging world.
For example, some balance sheet analysts worry about Chinese non-performing loans. But if we re-name banks “social expenditure departments” and these banks are bailed out from central government, then there is no sudden stop, only a drain from central government – a quite affordable drain.
Likewise with the problem of local government debt to banks. The banks are being instructed to roll-over loans, so - again - there is no sudden stop, just a cost which gets centralised.
Yes, a lot of investment is wasted, but that’s to be expected. A country with over 50pc of GDP invested is clearly wasteful if it only grows at 10pc a year, not 20pc. Such waste does not imply a looming crisis.
… CLICK!
Whistling during a stroll past the grave yard hasn’t gone out of style yet, despite untold numbers of greater fool MSM financial writers who have been wrong about almost every turn of events in the ongoing credit bubble collapse.
The media gets a lot of money from advertising. They deliver eyeballs to the advertiser and get paid. They’re going to report stories which make the advertisers happy.
DC news radio is a prime example of this. They routinely have interviews with local top real estate agents in their real estate segment. The hosts all repeat the mantra that lower prices are bad and higher prices are good. They know what side their bread is buttered on.
This blog and The Economist are literally the only places which had real information - and by that I mean information which has turned out to be on the whole accurate - during the last several years.
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Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-02-20 13:46:10
This blog and The Economist are literally the only places which had real information - and by that I mean information which has turned out to be on the whole accurate - during the last several years.
Agreed.
In my paper files, I have an Economist article from 2005. It predicted a lot of pain once the housing bubble popped.
As for this blog, ISTR reading about it in the LA Times during the first half of 2006. So, I made a beeline to it, and I’ve been here ever since. Thanks, Ben, for creating the HBB.
Comment by Posers
2012-02-20 14:07:03
Funny. I don’t find The Economist is accurate about a great many things. The 2008-2009 reporting/editorializing was particularly bad.
They also have the policy tools to deal with them, and the wherewithal to employ them…………………
Gee, I love these kinds of innocuous statements about governmental intrusions into the lives of individuals.
What does that mean?? Policy Tools??
Is that Mandates by the government that force people to work?
wherewithal to employ them? You mean like pointing guns at people until they submit to the will of the “government”.
Don’t get me wrong, we have the same bureaucratic mindset that infects academia here in the US of A. We hear this language often, typically with groups like the FED….Policy Tools.
Yes, we, as FREE Citizens of the Grand Republic will have our lives manipulated by bureaucrats for the benefit of the insiders. There meddling will be done with some new ‘policy’.
I’m wondering what will happen should I decide NOT to buy the Obamacare insurance policy? Will I see the wherewithal to ENFORCE THEM?? We’ll see.
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
China watchers are in denial over the likelihood of a property crash. While politicians openly worry about China’s too-expensive houses, economists polled by Reuters in January still think 2012’s GDP will grow by 8.3 percent. That’s too optimistic. Here are the frequently heard examples of wishful thinking.
“It’ll never happen”
…
“It won’t be that bad for GDP”
…
“The banks can absorb the blow”
…
“Beijing will just bail out the banks”
…
“Beijing will make everything ok”
…
“they’ll never cut my job” crowd not feeling as confident these days.
Congress is considering ways to cut U.S. federal workers’ pension benefits as well as their pay and possibly their jobs even as a record number are borrowing against their pensions.
Concern over the situation almost derailed a deal to extend the payroll tax cut last week as several lawmakers objected to a provision that would have required federal workers to contribute more to their pensions. In the end, negotiators agreed to target newly hired federal workers.
There’s more ahead, as moves to hold down government salaries mirror tightening at the state and local levels. Congress is considering extending a two-year federal pay freeze for another year, through 2013. Bills designed to reduce the federal workforce continue to be introduced. And another measure is pending that includes across-the-board requirements for more contributions to pensions.
Little known fact: Private contract federal workers outnumber regular full time federal workers and have since 2006.
I guess “privatization will reduce government and save money” was a lie after all. Gee, what a surprise.
So much for “bloated government”, eh?
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Comment by Martin
2012-02-20 13:06:26
No one talks about the huge number of federal contractors and their massive hourly rate in hundreds of dollars an hour from the Govt. cheese. Firing Federal employees and hiring contractors to do the same job at bloated hourly rates is also the same bloated Govt.
Comment by Kirisdad
2012-02-20 16:57:52
The real reason the GOP wants to privatize the gov’t workers. Full-time federal employees don’t kick-back enough $$$.
It’s not a good idea to cut federal worker salaries. In my section of the gov, my coworkers are very smart, very educated people, and their attitude is “how can we protect the public?”
If you don’t pay them decently, then they will take their smarts and education to private sector, where the attitude is “what can we get away with?”
You don’t know you’re being protected until something goes wrong.
Sounds like the Chinese housing market is dead in the water, and their housing bubble is poised to pop louder and harder than the U.S. bubble popped six years ago.
Feb. 20, 2012, 1:39 a.m. EST
China home-sale data show prices slumping
Local reports say no new homes sold in Beijing during holiday
By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch
An ad touts a new housing development on the outskirts of Shenzhen. Recent property-price data show that real-estate values are falling in major cities across China.
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — New data showed a sharp slowdown in China’s housing market, with prices generally flat or lower, and with one financial broker citing a government report that no new homes were sold in Beijing during the recent weeklong Lunar New Year holiday.
Average new home prices were flat or lower across all large and medium-sized Chinese cities in January, compared to levels a month earlier, according to data released over the weekend by the National Bureau of Statistics.
Of 70 cities tracked by the bureau, prices were lower in 48 cities and little changed in 22, while none saw gains from the prior month.
China’s latest move to relax bank’s reserve requirements signals that it’s still focused on growth. But it may not be a reason for investors to get excited.
In December, average prices had declined in 52 cities, were flat in 16 and rose in two.
Commenting on the data, Societe Generale analysts said the Chinese New Year holiday in January led to lower transactions, which probably helped to cushion against a larger fall in prices.
The bank said that the current correction had further to run, as authorities maintain mortgage-lending curbs and other measures to discourage home-price inflation.
Bank of America-Merrill Lynch analysts said the deterioration was supported by other data, including a slump in sales of apartments and other residential dwellings during the month.
Not a single holiday sale
In an unusual development, Merrill also cited data from Beijing’s municipal housing and construction bureau that showed the Chinese capital saw no new home sales at all during the Lunar New Year week.
The analysts also cited other data showing the entire city of Shenzhen recorded just two such sales during the holiday period.
Happy George Washington’s Birthday (observed)! I refuse to call it “Presidents’ Day”, and I commemorate Abe on April 15th, that day being his true, appropriate memorial.
Anyway, to General Washington, my deepest thanks for having a hand in creating a country that did provide me with a wonderful youth and later years, and opportunities (even if I did squander them). I am sorry that it has turned into such a clusterfark.
His Virginia plantation, “Mount Vernon,” consisted of five separate farms on 8,000 acres of prime farmland, run by over 300 slaves. His wife, Martha Washington, inherited significant property from her father. Washington made significantly more than subsequent presidents: his salary was two percent of the total U.S. budget in 1789.
Hmm. How many slaves does it take to produce a similar fortune today? In terms of things like debt peonage, indentured servitude (Foxconn, for example), etc? Just wondering.
Perhaps I’m just suffering a period of depression, but I can’t seem to motivate myself to even bother trying to engage in logical discussion on this board most of the time.
I refuse to become a “guns, bullets, canned food and gold” person.
I refuse to become a cheerleader, rooting for total financial collapse.
As a psycologist once told me, my problem is cognative dissonance of being an optimist but all the data being negative. I need to learn to embrace my inner pesimist.
No. I refuse to do it. I have too many kids and now grand-kids to allow myself to accept (and certainly not profit from and root for) total global economic collapse.
Good for you. One thing is that if you take most of us HBBers seriously, the world is going to end tomorrow. I am no Pollyanna, but there are always a slew of opportunities out there to enrich your life, no matter how dark these bloggers paint a picture. I have found freedom in an unfree world by being proactive in all ways and being unencumbered by possessions. I lost my job in December 2010 and obtained another job a couple days later. I lost that job February 3 and started my new job February 13. 2200 miles from my old job. I will have to jump to another job in August. No biggie. I love working and saving.
This BS from Darrel is getting old. Who here says the world’s gonna end? Who? I called him on this yesterday; anyone who doesn’t agree with him wants global depression. That’s crap. Anyway, I’ve read his rants and to tell the truth, I can’t understand what the hell he’s talking about.
As I pointed out a few days ago, it’s the MSM calling doom and gloom. If we don’t bomb this country or that, we’re gonna get nuked. If we don’t save Greece, it’ll collapse the world economy. Jeebus, the talking heads have gone hoarse telling us the end is near.
Taken in light of prof’s and combo’s recent observations about the BDI, isn’t it entirely possible that part of this drumbeat to war is in response to the growing glut of dry (and oil) shipping vessels? After all, nothing makes an easier target than a big, slow-moving ship. (Especially if it’s blocking, say, a Strait)
And we all know that the insurers are TBTF.
If nothing else, it’s a creative Plan B for the ship-building speculators in Seoul.
I’ve said that money is other peoples’ debt, and if those other people can’t or won’t repay the debt, the money poofs out of existence. When that happens, we’ll go into depression.
What do you think would happen if $5-10T ceased to exist?
And I’ve never said tomorrow. I’ve said we’ve got a good 4-8 years of $1.3T a year deficits before we Greece.
What we have here are a combination of gold bugs wanted to see gold go to $1,000,000 an ounce and the debt based monetary system ends, and another group of people wanting to see house prices fall to half their fundamental economic value so they can buy gobs of housing fir dirt cheap.
Lock up the bankers, end the Fed, let housing crash, return to a gold standard. Any and all of these would turn the USA into a 3rd world economy of slave wages and bare subsistane lifestyle.
Our economy is a lie? Yep, but there are options other than total economc collapse into depression. You know, like undoing everying that brought us to this point.
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Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2012-02-20 19:14:29
Ben didn’t say you were claiming the end of the world, but that you argued anyone who didn’t agree with you was. And once again, in response to a comment about something you said you manage to somehow turn it around with your debt equals money argument that had nothing at all to do with what Ben was saying.
Some here are expecting an economic meltdown, a very few seem to welcome it. Most however simply want housing to go down to a manageable level, i.e. three times real income. Not a goal that will allow “another group of people wanting to see house prices fall to half their fundamental economic value so they can buy gobs of housing fir dirt cheap.” I’m not looking to make a killing, I just want to buy a decent house at a decent price and I’m guessing 75% of the people here feel the same way.
I don’t think many people disagree with you as much as you think they do. But when you proclaim repeatedly how exceptional your IQ is, pout when people don’t respond to or believe in your argument, and throw a tirade at Ben responding to nothing he stated, the problem may be more with your communication style than the collective beliefs of HBBers.
…and another group of people wanting to see house prices fall to half their fundamental economic value so they can buy gobs of housing fir dirt cheap.
How about we start with the typical household income and slice it up into the monthly expenses? Depression?
There is a natural floor to these expenses if we could get the various predatory lenders and their lobbied government guarantors out of the free market.
“What do you think would happen if $5-10T ceased to exist?”
Good question. For the answer, look out the window.
Fed Chair Says ‘Normal Lending’ Key to Recovery
Daily Real Estate News | Monday, February 13, 2012
…
Bernanke addressed other issues still hindering the housing market recovery, including the fact that 12 million home owners – or more than one in five borrowers with a mortgage – are underwater. Additionally, the drop in home equity by more than 50 percent since the peak of the housing boom has resulted in the loss of more than $7 trillion in household wealth nationally.
…
“I can’t understand what the hell he’s talking about.
As I pointed out a few days ago, it’s the MSM calling doom and gloom.”
My reading of Darrell is that he is channeling the gloomiest scenarios the MSM cooks up regarding what would have happened if the bailouts that took place had not.
“Perhaps I’m just suffering a period of depression, but I can’t seem to motivate myself to even bother trying to engage in logical discussion on this board most of the time”
You just need to find your Katra, then you`ll be dominating the Dojo.
I refuse to become a “guns, bullets, canned food and gold” person.
I’ve never understood the “survivalist” approach.
1) You’ll eventually run out of bullets, canned food and gold.
2) Someone with more guns will find out you have canned food and gold, and take it from you.
Cheering for total financial collapse is just another side of the same coin. Those who cheer for it seem to believe that everything will right itself in short order and a libertarian paradise will ensue, when it’s more likely that a dictator will arise, possibly of the Communist variety.
There are a lot of libertarians who know they must work within the system to survive. This is what the outsiders such as alpha slob refuse to understand (stupidity). The best known libertarian in an unfree world of course was Harry Browne. You do not have to endorse groups, crusades, religions, or governments to work with them. You do not hve to vote or crusade to win yourself back your freedoms. The U.S. Is a highly sovietized society compared with many so called communist nations, when you factor in regulations. Some ex iron curtain nations have ten percent flat taxes and no corporate taxes.
Dopey says I should then move out of his socialist US -USSA. No. I have low personal taxes because I found loopholes to keep them low. I found freedom in the USSA. But most people here choose to ignore the loopholes that could substantially increase their own freedoms.
. I found freedom in the USSA. But most people here choose to ignore the loopholes that could substantially increase their own freedoms.
You seem to equate low taxes with freedom. Those loopholes can be easily taken away. Then what do you do? What if you can’t take your money with you if you leave the country?
And FWIW, if the gov’t thinks you’re a terrorist your 401K balance, no matter how handsome it is, won’t save you.
A lot of blood has been shed over economic issues. People don’t gird themselves to face powder and steel over just abstruse principles. Those principles have some real-world implications.
This country was founded in large measure over economic - taxation - issues. The North found slavery repugnant, but to the South, it was an economic issue - resulting in some six hundred thousand dead. The Arab Spring was driven in large measure by runaway food costs.
The importance of taxes in freedom (financial freedom) can’t be underestimated.
I was just wondering why there are no libertarian countries, states, cities, or towns for you guys to live the dream in.
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Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-02-20 13:40:30
I have my own libertarian society. If I want to smoke pot, I most likely would find a way to do it without getting caught. If I wanted a high class escort, I know where I can find them and I have associates who have done so. No one forces religion on me. Check. No one forces me to recite a lovely poem every day praising the occupier of the White House. Check. It is also much easier than you hope to take wealth out of this country or to hide it in this country.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-02-20 14:24:48
If I want to smoke pot, I most likely would find a way to do it … If I wanted a high class escort, I know where I can find them … No one forces religion on me… No one forces me to recite a lovely poem every day ….
Sounds like you live in pretty free country already. So what’s your gripe? Oh yeah, you don’t want to pay for it.
Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2012-02-20 19:22:34
“I have my own libertarian society. If I want to smoke pot, I most likely would find a way to do it without getting caught. If I wanted a high class escort, I know where I can find them and I have associates who have done so. No one forces religion on me.”
But what happens if you do get caught? I mean, I could murder someone and if I don’t get caught am I in a libertarian paradise? In our country you can’t smoke pot, you can’t pay for sex and if you are a poor woman I guarantee you that religious beliefs are interfering with your freedoms if you can’t afford to go on the pill.
Can you really not envision a situation where testing positive for pot will affect you in some way? What if you claim your a non-smoker on your insurance and they learn you really are. Can they deny you medical care? I’m betting yes.
Pretending you have freedom in this country is nice, but at the end of the day we really don’t and we are losing more everyday in the name of “safety” or “health care.”
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-02-20 19:40:16
Personally, I cannot have an arrest record and maintain my career. So if I did want to indulge in a victimless crime, I would do it where it is not a crime. The risk for me is not worth it, it is unreasonable. I never was interested in dope anyway.
My point is that millions of people are in careers where their bosses would applaud them for doing their own thing, including victimless crimes.
You mention murder. I am discussing VICTIMLESS crimes. Do you know the difference? Good grief! I seek justice. The government’s war against drugs and prostitution is itself immoral and must be immediately stopped. Murder, rape, and property theft are NOT victimless crimes. I knew this stuff in 1979. were you born yesterday?
Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2012-02-20 20:59:29
You didn’t talk about “victimless” crimes in your first posting, just what you could and could not get away with. I was simply trying to point out that you probably have more consequences than you think should you get caught. You seemed to imply that you already lived in a libertarian paradise because you can do what you want, but not getting caught is not the same as having freedom, thus the comparison to murder.
“The risk for me is not worth it, it is unreasonable. I never was interested in dope anyway. My point is that millions of people are in careers where their bosses would applaud them for doing their own thing, including victimless crimes.”
I did not get that at all from your original post. You were talking about having your “own libertarian society” and I was pointing out the real threats to that way of thinking.
I may have been born yesterday but at least I can respond to what is really being argued. Are you taking lessons from Darryl on how to use personal attacks whenever anyone disagrees with you?
So the question is, do YOU really have your “own libertarian society” if you have to worry about an arrest record for a victimless crime. I would argue no, but would be interested in any debate that promotes the idea that you do.
PS I think you should live in much more of a libertarian society and we should be working towards that. You should not lose your job for smoking pot or selling/buying sex even if I have no interest in either.
You don’t have low income taxes, Bill. You have high business expenses. Now, since you aren’t providing for a family in your fake apartment in Phoenix (glad to see you are no longer claiming to live there on the internet, just on your taxes), you aren’t paying for food in two places which is a nifty way to turn personal expenses into business expenses but at the expense of constantly having to maintain the cost of appearing to have two households and risking that, someday, the government might decide they don’t believe you.
By the way, the rule isn’t that you get to deduct all your living expenses at your “temporary” job for 18 months. The second your employer plans on you being there for more than 18 months, you have to stop deducting all your food, laundry, and living expenses, even if you only end up staying there less than 18 months. It only falls under the rules as long as the people who hire you consider you temporary. They don’t even have to tell you for the rule to apply. If they are audited and someone has you down as needed for two years, they can audit you and disallow all your food, etc. deductions for the entire time period because of a decision your job made without even telling you. You might want to ask them for a written confirmation of your status every couple of weeks.
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Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-02-20 13:34:47
School marm, I don’t 1099. At least not yet. My big tax break is different that I don’t have to keep track of all my expenses. You mention food as a single expense but conveniently ignore I pay $950 per month rent in AZ, I pay over $100 for cable TV, and I pay SRP for utilities. Again, you can dream all you want, but you are not much of a legal expert since you do not understand 100% of my out of sat at income is taxable by Arizona. And I pay it. How come there is no squawk from you that I worked in Florida all last year where there are no income taxes, but will pay Arizona income taxes on that Florida income? BECAUSE you would be then declaring me an Arizona resident and you refuse to.
By the way, my tax break is twelve months, not eighteen. Maybe 1099 rules have changed to be 18.
Don’t dream that I don’t know when my tax break expires. I have been at this for twelve years. I had no tax break in December ‘11 and in January and up to February3. My company knows very well. It is a $500 million company and yes it has tax attorneys. My pimp is well aware of my tax stance too.
My company would be who gets audited, not me.
Comment by polly
2012-02-21 07:15:17
Thanks. That confirms a lot. You are very chatty about personal financial stuff.
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-02-21 08:20:53
What is my snail mail address, social security number and phone number school marm?
No. I refuse to do it. I have too many kids and now grand-kids to allow myself to accept (and certainly not profit from and root for) total global economic collapse.
Having kids does change one’s perspective, huh?
If it were just me I might consider the adventure of riding around on a motorcycle that runs on veggie oil, camping out, doing something like a cross between Mad Max and Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas and On The Road.
Instead, I am very clear that my job and health insurance and pension are not safe, and that no matter how many canned goods I store it will never be enough to feed my family if the sh$t really hits the fan.
Understanding this reality is ultimately what has shaped my views on immigration: yes I think there are too many undocumented immigrants, yes I think they are a strain on our economic system and environment…
…and if I had to sneak across the border to Canada or somewhere else so that I could find work in order to feed my family you know I would do it in a second.
Darrell, I think we have a lot of closet idealists in here, who have a strong moral code and principals, but have their eyes wide open when it comes to unsustainable trends, i.e. the housing bubble that we all perceived while all the touts and “experts” were spouting their happy talk. Nobody in here is rooting for a financial collapse, as life would become horrific for everyone in that scenario. Know this, however: if the SHTF, I’m not going to feel the slightest obligation to help guys like you who buried their head in the sand and refused to make any prudent preparations for what is clearly coming down the pike.
“Know this, however: if the SHTF, I’m not going to feel the slightest obligation to help guys like you who buried their head in the sand and refused to make any prudent preparations for what is clearly coming down the pike.”
At almost 60, I have recognized that if the SHTF, I am completely fubar and nothing I do will change that. I am a rather small woman with joint issues that will not enable me to outrun (or even outwalk) the starving hordes.
“closet idealists “
In my youth I was briefly a pacifist, an anarchist, and a libertarian. At heart, I am much too practical to be an idealist.
I think you equate the removal of government house price subsidies with economic armageddon.
I make every attempt to base my world view on observable evidence. I am willing to listen to all theories but require evidence to judge whether they accurately describe the physical reality.
I have simply seen no credible evidence that removing government house price subsidies will result in economic armageddon.
When Iceland defaulted, their major banks failed. Yes there was a contraction. But their current economic picture is quite sound. They took the non-rocket-science, basic steps necessary for the benefit of the population. They separated deposit accounts from the banks’ betting operations. Then brought their financial sector to heel.
Here and in Europe, the cornerstone of policy is to save the financial sector as the unprovable belief is that the financial sector is the most important, most sacrosanct, cornerstone sector of the economy. However, the net result of the financial sector has been merely to concentrate wealth by ensnaring people in debt and creating betting instruments. Making it smaller and less politically and financially powerful will be a good thing for the society.
The self-appointed experts and top economists have been wrong about just about everything. They couldn’t see the housing / debt bubble. They keep encouraging malinvestment in real estate and construction. I just saw a big new housing development in Maryland today. It had been shutdown for years but has recently really burgeoned. I thought, “Yeah, it’s a make work project, but wouldn’t it be much more useful if the government were spending that money on true public good / infrastructure projects?”
If you agree with the government that the financial sector is sacrosanct and the cornerstone of the rest of the economy, I can see how you can then see any reduction in their wealth and power would be equivalent to financial armageddon. I however don’t see evidence for such a thing, and as a result, think a reduction in the wealth and power of the financial sector would be an unmitigated positive development for the economy.
Separate deposit accounts from the Wall Street betting operations. Wall Street has in fact taken deposit accounts hostage by mixing the two. And managed to get their entire operation insured by the government. And then put a leash on the financial sector. People will lose jobs. But finally, it will be the architects of the financial crisis, instead of those doing the hard work of the real economy.
Best President’s Day comment courtesy of Zero Hedge: “If the last 12 years have revealed anything, they have shown beyond reasonable doubt that both Status Quo political parties in the U.S. are hopelessly, ruinously corrupt and thus beyond any reform or redemption. We all know why: it now takes millions of dollars to run costly mainstream media election campaigns, and the only source for contributions of that scale is the financial/corporate Elite. It doesn’t matter how you arrange the taxonomy of the financial aristocracy that rules the nation or how you subdivide it–old money, new money, family money, corporate money, etc.– the bottom line is these campaign contributions are viewed by the aristocratic donors as investments that yield gargantuan returns in tax breaks, subsidies, bailouts, sweetheart contracts, “get out of jail free” cards for the shadow banking system, and so on.”
it now takes millions of dollars to run costly mainstream media election campaigns, and the only source for contributions of that scale is the financial/corporate Elite. ………….
This is probably a great topic for a lengthy discussion sometime, but today, i need to stop screwing around and get some work done.
I just want to point out that I have blogged about this failure of DIRECT DEMOCRACY on a large scale in the past. I favored the Electoral College as one way to avoid this corruption, as you see, you can’t have Direct Democracy on a National level due to lack of information.
Campaigns spend tons of dollars to propagandize the public, which is easier to do the more remote the office and the candidate is from the voter. I gave a prior example of the election of Bob Martinez to Governor here in Florida. The papers north and south largely promoted him. He had large corporate sponsorship, and he won 66 of Florida’s 67 Counties. All but one, mine, Hillsborough. His hometown.
I think this is factually correct, but need to research the actual numbers. But the general case was true.
WE knew him and didn’t want him. He was SOLD to the rest of the State, the same way Obama was Sold the the rest of the Nation, as some kind of new brand of the same old crap.
The college of electors, at both State and National levels simply meant that local voters would select delegates to vote for them at the higher levels of office. AT least, that way, you got to know the person who would represent you at the selection level.
It would be much more representative of the people you trust to make the right decisions. There are, of course, counter arguments to the corruptibility of this kind of system, but my basic premise is that DEMOCRACY only works at the Local level, where everyone has a stake in what is going to happen to their community.
The further removed you go in the system, the more “campaigning” and “advertisements” SELL the candidate to the public, with the press aiding and abetting the candidates of their choice (typically insiders who claim to be outsiders).
The so-called vetting processes are a joke in terms of the media coverage of candidates, based on party affiliation and political ideology. Obama couldn’t do anything wrong and Sarah Palin couldn’t cough without some reporter writing a story about Palin promoting infectious diseases.
If we are going to have direct elections, perhaps we should have much easier ways to recall candidates when we find they are something other than what was represented. I’m sure that would lead to riots more likely than peace and tranquility, so it’s probably not the solution.
Greek tax collectors told they have to become 200% more efficient at collecting revenues. How many fantasies and fabrications is this “Greece is saved” predicated on?
Bob Janjuah is back with more truth-telling in his latest article, “Monetary Anarchy.” Some key points:
1 – Greece (and the whole eurozone story) continues to lurch about, seemingly perpetually, from Farce to Tragedy. Policy seems to be focused on protecting and preserving vested interests, with little consideration given to the dreadful conditions the people of Greece and other “peripherals” are being forced to live with. However, it seems that eurozone leaders may be about to pour even more taxpayer money down into the black hole that is Greece, primarily to help the banks in Europe, at the expense of perhaps a decade of suffering by the Greek populace. For my part, I am now consigning the Greece/Peripherals/Eurozone story to the box marked “self-serving political debacle” and from here on in I will simplify Europe as follows: Until, and unless, Germany signs up to full fiscal union, a eurozone breakup is likely. And depending on how long we can continue to “kick the can” down the road in order to protect the eurozone banks, the eurozone will be consigned to an extended period of weak growth, which in turn means ever decreasing debt sustainability. Ultimately this means that the end game will simply be more devastating for us all the longer we are forced to wait. Investors should be fully aware that “home” bias amongst real money investors is now “off the charts”. This is not a good development for the eurozone, unless of course our leaders are preparing for break up, or at least considering it as a viable option.
2 – I am staggered at how easily the concepts of Democracy and the Rule of Law – two of the pillars of the modern world – have been brushed aside in the interests of political expediency. This is not just a eurozone phenomenon but of course the removal of elected governments and the instalment of “insider” technocrats who simply serve the interests of the elite has become a specialisation in Europe. Many will think this kind of development is not a big deal and is instead may be what is needed. Personally I am absolutely certain that the kind of totalitarianism being pushed on us by our leaders will – if allowed to persist and fester – end with consequences which are way beyond anything the printing presses of our central banks could ever hope to contain. Communism failed badly. Why then are we arguably trying to resurrect a version of it, particularly in Europe? Are the banks so powerful that we are all beholden to them and the biggest nonsense of all – that defaults should never happen (unless said defaults are trivial or largely meaningless)?
3 – More broadly, with Mr Draghi now in situ, it is clear that I misread and misunderstood two things. First, I am simply stunned that our policymakers seem so one-dimensional, so short-termist, and so utterly bereft of courage or ideas. It now seems obvious that in response to the financial crisis that has been with us for five years and counting, we are being “told” to double up on these same policy decisions. The crisis was caused by central bankers mispricing the cost of capital, which forced a misallocation of capital, driven by debt/leverage, which was ultimately exposed as a hideous asset bubble which then collapsed, destroying the lives and livelihoods of tens of millions of relatively innocent people. Well now, if you listen to the latest from Bernanke and Draghi, it seems that the only solution they can offer up is to yet again misprice the cost of capital, in the hope that, yet again, through increased leverage/debt, we are yet again “greedy” enough to misallocate capital, which in turn will lead to yet another round of asset bubbles. Such asset bubbles are meant to delude us into believing that we are now “richer”. When – as they do by definition – these bubbles burst, those who have been suckered in will realise that their “wealth” is instead an illusion, which in turn will be replaced by default risk.
Secondly, I have clearly underestimated the ‘market’s’ willingness, nay desperation, to go along with this ultimately ruinous policy path. Personally, I think this is extremely worrying – the number of clients who tell me that they know they are being forced into playing a game that will end in disaster, but who feel they have to play along and who hope they will get out before it turns, is a depressingly familiar old tale. Some such folks hang onto the idea that Draghi/LTRO changed the asymmetry of risk from deeply negative to positive. Yet even these folks know that printing more money/more liquidity/more debt/more leverage is not a viable solution to our ills, and in fact will mean true supply side reform and the search for true competiveness and sustainable growth will be further cast aside, as the focus will be on the “easy gains” to be made in markets.
“I am staggered at how easily the concepts of Democracy and the Rule of Law – two of the pillars of the modern world – have been brushed aside in the interests of political expediency.”
The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism is a 2007 book by Canadian author Naomi Klei.
It was all laid out 5 years ago and also written about by various other authors years ago.
Welcome to the New World Order. (maybe you’ve heard of that one as well? From around, oh, 20 years ago?)
“The Civil Guard said agents would leave within hours to take possession of the booty, worth an estimated euro380 million ($504 million), and two Spanish Hercules transport planes will bring it back.”
That will pay for about 1/3 of ones day’s government budget in Spain.
Icelandic Anger Brings Debt Forgiveness
By Omar R. Valdimarsson - Feb 19, 2012 7:01 PM ET
Bloomberg
The island’s steps to resurrect itself since 2008, when its banks defaulted on $85 billion, are proving effective. Iceland’s economy will this year outgrow the euro area and the developed world on average, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates. It costs about the same to insure against an Icelandic default as it does to guard against a credit event in Belgium. Most polls now show Icelanders don’t want to join the European Union, where the debt crisis is in its third year.
Iceland’s special prosecutor has said it may indict as many as 90 people, while more than 200, including the former chief executives at the three biggest banks, face criminal charges.
Larus Welding, the former CEO of Glitnir Bank hf, once Iceland’s second biggest, was indicted in December for granting illegal loans and is now waiting to stand trial. The former CEO of Landsbanki Islands hf, Sigurjon Arnason, has endured stints of solitary confinement as his criminal investigation continues.
That compares with the U.S., where no top bank executives have faced criminal prosecution for their roles in the subprime mortgage meltdown. The Securities and Exchange Commission said last year it had sanctioned 39 senior officers for conduct related to the housing market meltdown.
Most polls now show Icelanders don’t want to join the European Union, where the debt crisis is in its third year.
ISTR reading an article in which the British Chancellor of the Exchequer all but gloated about the fact that *his* country stayed out of the European Union.
Icelandic voters gave the banksters the finger and refused to bail out reckless speculators and greedy “investors.” ‘Merican voters cast votes for limitless bailouts and crony capitalism with their votes for Obama and McCain. That’s the difference between citizens and sheep.
The inevitable end of the line for corrupt crony-capitalist countries. Greek youths will be victims for years to come thanks to the austerity being demanded in return for a 130 billion euro bail-out being hammered out. David Blair reports from Athens.
Erasmia Dimoula, 25, qualified as a nursery schoolteacher two years ago. Since then, she has not had a job, save for a brief stint as a waitress. She now lives at home, in a state of enforced dependence on her parents, along with her similarly unemployed sister who speaks three languages and has a master’s degree in psychology.
“If there wasn’t a financial crisis, I would be working now. I’m sure of it,” said Miss Dimoula. She will not vote in the elections expected in April and, like many Greeks of her generation, expressed nothing but contempt for the politicians of all parties who brought the country to its current pass.
“I don’t expect anything from any government, from any politician. I can only expect things from myself,” she said. “You have to take responsibility if you give your vote to these people. Then you’d have to shut up about what’s going on.”
Now the EU “Troika” wants to have a permanent role in running Greece’s financial affairs (i.e. serving as the banksters’ collection and enforcement arm while Greece goes straight to hell).
I wonder if our national bankruptcy and surrender of sovereignty is going to play out along similar lines.
Lay down lay down lay it all down
Let your white birds smile
At the ones who stand and frown
So raise candles high ’cause if you don’t
We could stay black against the night
Oh raise them higher again
And if you do we could stay dry against the rain
Words from Melanie, a strong libertarian and Ron Paul backer
Ha, we did cruise an area to scope rentals. We’re pretty sure we’re going to lose our lease — I have no doubt this place could sell quick for wayyy more than we’re willing to pay.
U Hual sells bundles of boxes really cheap, and delivered by Fed-Ex’s rust bucket contractor fleet practically for free.
Here, we hit the grocery on Tuesdays.
(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Muggy
2012-02-20 17:59:51
I hit up the schools where I work. TONS of boxes everyday. You have to be careful though — funky things lurk in the closets of teachers and pallets in lunch areas.
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-02-20 18:27:30
I get far less than what I pay into it. I suppose you get your money’s worth.
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-02-20 21:12:27
Post got put here somehow. Was meant for slop above
Harry Browne suggested the direct approach. I am secretly a radical libertarian in the Jeffersonian and Thomas Paine and Lysander Spooner tradition but work within the system because I gotta eat.
Fortunately I am realizing another tax avoidance scheme that is unconventional and should knock my rate to less than ten percent. That includes federal, state, and social security, but not others.
Fortunately I am realizing another tax avoidance scheme that is unconventional and should knock my rate to less than ten percent. That includes federal, state, and social security, but not others.
Care to share? Doubt it would apply to me as a wage-slave, but I’d love to know for sure…
“We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.
Government shouldn’t get involved in clean air and water? So, if my neighbor decides its in his best interest to use his property as a hazardous waste dump and a waste incineration facility, does it not impact me?
If the author is not being facetious, I don’t think he comprehends the concept of public good or externality (public cost of private endeavor).
I’m all for the ideal of the government and other people staying out of my business, but tempered by the reality that members of a civilization do intrude in unwanted ways both directly and indirectly on the matters of others. And instead of taking matters into my own hands, according to ways I see fit, I’d prefer an impartial 3rd party to handle it.
Promoting the general welfare is not unconstitutional. Says so right there in the first sentence of the Constitution.
If enough of you vote for Republican austerity advocates in the next election, America can share the Greek fate of a crushing debt burden weighing on a broke back economy.
Op-Ed Columnist Pain Without Gain
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: February 19, 2012
Last week the European Commission confirmed what everyone suspected: the economies it surveys are shrinking, not growing. It’s not an official recession yet, but the only real question is how deep the downturn will be.
Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times
And this downturn is hitting nations that have never recovered from the last recession. For all America’s troubles, its gross domestic product has finally surpassed its pre-crisis peak; Europe’s has not. And some nations are suffering Great Depression-level pain: Greece and Ireland have had double-digit declines in output, Spain has 23 percent unemployment, Britain’s slump has now gone on longer than its slump in the 1930s.
Worse yet, European leaders — and quite a few influential players here — are still wedded to the economic doctrine responsible for this disaster.
For things didn’t have to be this bad. Greece would have been in deep trouble no matter what policy decisions were taken, and the same is true, to a lesser extent, of other nations around Europe’s periphery. But matters were made far worse than necessary by the way Europe’s leaders, and more broadly its policy elite, substituted moralizing for analysis, fantasies for the lessons of history.
Specifically, in early 2010 austerity economics — the insistence that governments should slash spending even in the face of high unemployment — became all the rage in European capitals. The doctrine asserted that the direct negative effects of spending cuts on employment would be offset by changes in “confidence,” that savage spending cuts would lead to a surge in consumer and business spending, while nations failing to make such cuts would see capital flight and soaring interest rates. If this sounds to you like something Herbert Hoover might have said, you’re right: It does and he did.
Now the results are in — and they’re exactly what three generations’ worth of economic analysis and all the lessons of history should have told you would happen. The confidence fairy has failed to show up: none of the countries slashing spending have seen the predicted private-sector surge. Instead, the depressing effects of fiscal austerity have been reinforced by falling private spending.
…
Didn’t FPSS tell us just a day or two back how the deleveraging would be far more painful for creditor nations than for debtor nations?
Asia Stocks Fall Amid Greece Rescue Talks
By Lynn Thomasson and Candice Zachariahs - Feb 20, 2012 7:37 PM PT
Enlarge image Euro Rises as European Leaders Reach Greek Deal
Asian stocks have climbed for the past nine weeks, pushing the MSCI Asia-Pacific gauge to a 12 percent rally this year. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg
Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) — Euro-area finance ministers reached agreement on a second bailout package for Greece that is vital to staving off a default next month, a European Union official said. David Tweed reports on Bloomberg Television “Asia Edge” with John Dawson. (Source: Bloomberg)
The euro rose for a fourth day, copper advanced and Asian stocks pared losses after a European Union official said finance ministers have reached an agreement on a second bailout package for Greece.
The euro climbed 0.3 percent to $1.3276 as of 12:31 p.m. in Tokyo, reversing an earlier drop. Copper climbed 1.5 percent and oil traded near a nine-month high. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) declined 0.2 percent as airlines retreated on concern higher energy prices will reduce profits. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures advanced 0.5 percent. Ten-year Treasury yields rose three basis points to 2.03 percent.
European finance ministers had haggled into the night in Brussels over the terms of new loans to Greece and a possible contribution by central banks. They also bartered with bank representatives over a bond exchange meant to stave off the threat of a Greek default next month. Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping said yesterday that the global economy faces an “uphill struggle” as it seeks to recover from a financial crisis.
“You really do need to factor the uncertainty into your investment decisions,” Manpreet Gill, a senior investment strategist at Standard Chartered Plc, said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Singapore. “You can’t really go out and say that we’ve solved the whole euro-zone debt crisis and this won’t come back to bother us again. These issues will still simmer over time.”
…
Paul Krugman - New York Times Blog
February 20, 2012, 8:12 pm
Hoover/Brüning 2012
I haven’t written much lately about the spate of articles either calling for, or at least wistfully speculating about, a “centrist” third-party candidacy. It’s nonsense, of course, on multiple levels. For one thing, if you look at what pundits calling for such a candidacy want, it’s all already in Obama’s proposals. For another, it’s not going to happen. For a third, the favorite imaginary candidate, Michael Bloomberg, turns out to be totally ignorant about the economic crisis.
But thinking about today’s column, I realized that it’s even worse than that. What defines centrist heroes, as far as I can tell, is that they are people who, faced with a catastrophic slump driven by private-sector abuses, and a severe shortfall of spending, declared that our most urgent priority is … to reduce budget deficits.
That’s often described as a courageous position, but it’s actually anything but: nobody in the Beltway dinner-party circuit has ever been ostracized for demanding entitlement cuts. And aside from being totally conventional, it’s also deeply wrong-headed — and if you ask me somewhat unethical, too, because it involves exploiting a crisis to push an agenda totally unrelated to that crisis.
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The Buzz: Gas prices are the economy’s 500-pound gorilla
By David Benda
Posted February 19, 2012 at midnight
News reports suggest the economy is rebounding.
Unemployment in Shasta County and across the country is down, the Dow flirted with 13,000 last week, and housing starts locally and in the U.S. have ticked up.
But will rising gas prices slow the recovery?
It’s almost a sure bet the average price will be well over $4 a gallon before Memorial Day.
A gallon of regular unleaded in greater Redding averaged $3.88 on Friday, nearly a quarter higher than a month ago, according to AAA.
Shasta County relies a lot on those summer tourists flocking to its lakes and campgrounds. So those who make a market in our vacation economy give more than a passing glance to pump prices.
“I think we are seeing a little bit of nervousness definitely throughout industry,” said Jenny Zink, marketing director for Shasta Cascade Wonderland Association, a tourism group that promotes the region. “It’s kind of going back to that ’staycation’ kind of thing.”
Staycation is a term the industry coined a few years back in the bowels of this horrible recession. Can’t afford a trip to Hawaii or that Alaskan cruise? No worries. Stay home and take in the sights in your own backyard.
“I think as an industry we are thinking that staycation is going to come back around again,” Zink said.
Zink said something else that I’ve heard a lot from other business folks in recent years: At some point people may just have to get used to the “new normal” for gas prices.
“It is very scary and one of those things that is completely out of our hands,” she said. “What we try to do is show the value (tourists) get for coming here.”
As is typical for an MSM piece, they confuse a rising stock market fueled by massive Fed liquidity (near-free gambling money to its primary dealer accomplices) and an ever-diminishing number of retail investors whose pitiful savings interest rates are well below inflation, for an economic rebound. Meanwhile SNAP (food stamp) usage is hitting all time highs and the true unemployment rate is around 22%. Some recovery.
“Some recovery.”
You mean some monetary policy.
$4.15, 87 in my part of Los Angeles.
I filled up for 2.89 on Saturday.
Public pensions, SNAP, generous health payouts, public higher education for illegals…all that costs Californians a lot of money, In Colorado. A dollar more for a gallon of gas only just begins to pay for it all.
It’s always interesting to hear stories from the coasts…things are different there. Energy costs. Health insurance costs for average citizens. Taxes. Rents. User fees. Food.
We have a lot of illegals and people on SNAP here too (isn’t SNAP funded by the USDA?).
What we do have here is TABOR (Taxpayers’ Bill of Rights) , which is yet again being challenged in court. TABOR limits spending growth to match inflation and population growth and places strict restrictions on raising taxes. In an interesting twist of fate, Douglas Bruce, the “father” of TABOR, was recently convicted and sentenced for tax evasion.
Yeah, that is interesting.
Nonetheless, you’re lucky to have TABOR. The “official” inflation rate must be irksome so your state spenders, as inflation is quite a bit higher than what is reported.
Yet, Colorado hasn’t slid off the edge of the cliff, has it?
Yes, the bogus reported inflation rate has to be affecting budgets. Colorado hasn’t slid off a cliff, but our funding for K-12 and higher ed is amongst the lowest in the nation. Administrators have learned to live on shoestring budgets at the K-12 level, while higher ed, whose share of the budget is actually shrinking, has resorted to annual tuition increases to cover lost state funding. Just 10 years ago a year’s tuition at most state U’s was under 3K. Now it’s as high as 8K. Colorado State U is considering privatizing as it expects to receive no state funding well before the decade is over.
What a lot of communities do in the state is they waive local sales taxes (via the ballot) from TABOR restrictions. This act is commonly referred to as “de-Brucing”. That said, it’s only the amounts collected that are de-Bruced, raising the sales tax rate still requires voter approval, and very rarely is that ever approved.
In general I like TABOR, as it keeps the state gov’t from going crazy. The downside is that when there are legitimate needs, the voters will almost always say no.
For instance we had a local referendum in our city that would have added $100 a year to the average property tax bill to restore K-12 funding to 2009 levels. It went down in flames, with comments in the local newspaper’s editorial section saying that the school district had to tighten its belt. So the school district proposed closing two elementary schools (including laying off their entire staffs). Needless to say, that didn’t go over well with parents. Anyway, it goes to show the two extremes.
Colorado:
$3.89
Where? In Vail?
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_20003763
” Average retail gasoline prices in Denver have risen 0.9 cents per gallon in the past week, averaging $3.02 on Sunday, according to Patrick DeHaan, senior petroleum analyst for GasBuddy.com.”
$4.49 for regular in Mammoth Lakes
I don’t even look at the price anymore…Its to frustrating and there is nothing I can do about it….
Side note…On my annual trip to the sprawling metropolis of French Camp California…I mentioned last year that there was a significant increase in the amount of full time residents in there RV’s & Trailers…Well, that increase has continued…It appears about 1/2 of the park is now full time…Sign of the times…
I saw an ad for the Mitsubishi i electric vehicle yesterday (online) and it charged for 62 miles at 22 hours. It was $21K and change. Why even bother. I’ll wait for Tesla to come out with a viable inexpensive ev. Meanwhile, my old Volvo costs me $200/mo to fill. She might be long in the tooth, but she’s paid off and functional.
If Tesla figures it out and then get scale watch out…A few people have told me that Tesla is attracting he brightest of minds in this research…
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_162-57343234/slab-city-a-desert-haven-for-recessions-victims/
Slab City, in the California badlands, is filling up with “beneficiaries” of hope ‘n change.
Look out. Bright minds being put to work on scams and schemes seems to be more popular now than any other intellectual effort being put forth.
Look out. Bright minds being put to work on scams and schemes seems to be more popular now than any other intellectual effort being put forth.
Preach it!
Friend of mine is working for a social media startup. He thinks that the company’s business plan is of the “day late/dollar short” variety, yet he continues to report to work. He’s not exactly the team player type, but they need him.
He’s getting ready for the inevitable crash and burn.
I think Tesla was smart to partner with Toyota for the ev market. Tesla’s battery technology is going somewhere (and don’t tell me the trash). Love Tesla or not, the *Model S is a winner. It’s just too expensive for us right now.
(*300 miles on a 45 mintue charge)
cactus
How is the short sale deal coming along?
Not one suggestion about blaming Obama for this rise in gas prices, and no one even talking about the impact of speculators. The usual whiners and complainers in the MSM and elsewhere are so willing to keep quiet when the D party is in power.
The word “Recovery” means that things seem to have stopped freefall. It’s hopeful. I see a little more hope in my business than previously, just slightly. The HBB edginess to buy meter is also ticking up. Personally, I view recovery as a return to normal, which will take more chemo.
We haven’t hit Peak Foreclosures yet, as far as I can tell. There would be a second huge free fall after that, and then probably a third following on, before piercing the pre bubble plateau.
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug06/post-bubble-symmetry.html
All of the bubble jobs will be wiped out. It is sad that we wasted several decades creating unsustainable jobs, but there you go. Then we can start to figure out what the muse means when he asks “What will the post bubble economy look like?”
I was doing stacations 20 years ago… and pretty much ever since.
With the increase in residential burglaries, I’m not quite as keen about being gone for a week or so as I was before.
Gas hit $4.00 a gallon here in SF.
No one has ever been able to give me a reasonable answer as to why we have the most expensive gas prices in the country (except maybe New York or Hawaii).
Maybe just because they can?
Yep. Because they can.
More likely because people are still paying without mass reduction in driving.
See posts above.
American consumption of gasoline has been steadily declining for several years now.
There’s only ONE reason: speculators.
*1 The 1% need their ROI.
NY is only at $3.85, upstate anyway.
It is odd, oil spiking as consumption falls. Where have I seen this movie before?
The dollar is still the reserve currency, so the price spike isn’t hitting us near as hard as it is in Asia and Europe.
Perhaps this has something to do with state by state variations. please note the amazing prescence of NJ at the bottom in taxes.
Gasoline Sales & Excise Tax by State
Highest Tax to Lowest
July 1, 2011
State ¢ PG State ¢ PG Fed. Combined
State & Fed. Taxes PG
Connecticut 49.6 18.4 68.0
New York 49.5 18.4 67.9
California 49.1 18.4 67.5
Hawaii 47.4 18.4 65.8
Illinois 41.2 18.4 59.6
Michigan 40.8 18.4 59.2
Indiana 39.7 18.4 58.1
Washington 37.5 18.4 55.9
North Carolina 35.3 18.4 53.7
Florida 34.5 18.4 52.9
Nevada 33.1 18.4 51.5
Rhode Island 33.0 18.4 51.4
Wisconsin 32.9 18.4 51.3
Pennsylvania 32.5 18.4 50.7
West Virginia 32.2 18.4 50.6
Maine 31.5 18.4 49.9
Oregon 31.0 18.4 49.4
Alabama 30.9 18.4 49.3
Georgia 29.2 18.4 47.6
Ohio 28.0 18.4 46.4
Kentucky 27.8 18.4 46.2
Montana 27.8 18.4 46.2
Minnesota 27.2 18.4 45.6
Nebraska 27.2 18.4 45.6
Vermont 26.6 18.4 45.0
Idaho 25.0 18.4 43.4
Kansas 25.0 18.4 43.4
Utah 24.5 18.4 42.9
South Dakota 24.0 18.4 42.4
D.C. 23.5 18.4 41.9
Maryland 23.5 18.4 41.9
Massachusetts 23.5 18.4 41.9
Delaware 23.0 18.4 41.4
North Dakota 23.0 18.4 41.4
Colorado 22.0 18.4 40.4
Iowa 22.0 18.4 40.4
Arkansas 21.8 18.4 40.2
Tennessee 21.4 18.4 39.8
Louisiana 20.0 18.4 38.4
Texas 20.0 18.4 38.4
Virginia 20.0 18.4 38.4
New Hampshire19.6 18.4 38.0
Arizona 19.0 18.4 37.4
New Mexico 18.9 18.4 37.3
Mississippi 18.8 18.4 37.2
Missouri 17.3 18.4 35.7
Oklahoma 17.0 18.4 35.4
South Carolina 16.8 18.4 35.2
New Jersey 14.5 18.4 32.9
Wyoming 14.0 18.4 32.4
Alaska 08.0 18.4 26.4
National average, state & federal: 48.9
SOURCE: Common Sense Junction &
American Petroleum Institute.
Hmmm… California has 27 cents more per gallon tax than Colorado, yet gas costs $1 more.
Gas is more expensive in DC. As it turns out, there was some monopoly pricing going on.
No one has ever been able to give me a reasonable answer as to why we have the most expensive gas prices in the country (except maybe New York or Hawaii).
1. Where does your supply originate?
Hint: Think about where refineries are located around the Bay Area and the rest of the state. Then think about whether it would be possible to increase California refining capacity by building new refineries in locations where they don’t currently exist.
2. How do California gas taxes compare to those in other places?
3. Are there any special requirements on how California gas is produced and delivered that drive up costs relative to other states?
I always suspected that the price fluctuations starting around Katrina were an attempt by the petroleum industry to find a new maximum profit point - price x quantity. They have a lot of data now and it seems like the current price point has held for a while. I’m guessing this price point will hold for a while, till the industry sees a reason to readjust its price x quantity equation.
http://news.yahoo.com/saudi-arabia-vows-end-violence-iron-fist-184607839.html;_ylt=AtJV92mweuBOzgEpl5PwJgn6SpZ4
And since gas prices aren’t high enough already….
LAWLESS is a tough word to work into a song. Got to go to work early so I can be sure my DB LL has that extra $1,700 to cover his bills. I`ll check back tonight.
Billy Joel has a song titled “Shameless” on his Storm Front album.
It would be a good candidate.
Garth Brooks’ Shameless?
I like the lyrics to Jann Arden’s “Insensitive” dealing with a creep and the signals the naive chick fails to see.
Flawless, jawless, strawless, crawl less, squall less, stall lessm etc…. and, of course…. ball-less.
You’re welcome.
Realtors Are Liars®
It’s National Kick a Realtor Day!
Go celebrate!!
I am reminded of an editorial cartoon I saw decades ago.
A large mob is marching and protesting. You see them from behind. Each and everyone of the has a shoe mark on their butt. They are all carrying signs with the same shoe mark inside the internation crossed out red circle symbol.
I’m guessing that’s how realtors are feeling these days (along with a lot of other people).
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=202272
As this is President’s Day and the markets are closed, it is time for something that will require contemplation.
Pull up a chair; it may require more than one sitting.
We shall start with what I call the “3% Solution.” This is the premise that Ben Bernanke loves to run. He of course argues that it’s a 2% solution, but it rarely is. I am speaking of the intentional inflation that he fosters through the monetary system, an inflation that under the black-letter law of The Federal Reserve Act is a violation, albeit one without a penalty clause. As such he can do as he will, since this “law” has the same import as does a “law” against bank robbery with no penalty attached (the line for robbery stretches out the door and down the block in such an instance, of course.)
I’m going to pick on 110 years as my time frame. This is not an accident, of course; 100 years is approximately the age of the Federal Reserve, and the next 10 are the ones in which we will either stop this or perish as a nation.
The real crime, IMHO, isn’t the inflation. It’s the understating of inflation to avoid having to pay realistic COLA for SS/salaries/etc. Inflation is the only way out of this mess. If you have too much fixed rate debt, and I double everyone’s salary (simple example) and double the cost of everything at the same time, now, suddenly, everyone’s debt load is 1/2 what it once was and their spending is identical. Yes, all kinds of other problems arise from this, but, in the Fed’s narrow view of the world, “problem solved”.
The bigger issue is that if inflation is 10% and you state it at 2%, you’re “robbing” most people of 8% a year in salary. Anybody getting cost of living adjustments suddenly, at the end of the year, is 8% poorer.
Riddle me this batman..
Housing payment = 30% of income
Housing prices = 30% YOY inflation (during the boom)
Inflation = 2%!??!
It’s almost mathematically impossible to wind up at those numbers unless everything else in the basket is going down (which it wasn’t), or you’re not using real numbers (owner’s equiv rent, WTF is that? Can I buy a house with that fairy tale)?
If the Fed would state inflation honestly, things would be much more stable and controlled. When prices go up 10-30% YOY on the single most expensive item in most people’s budgets, you need emergency tightening measures (assuming you’re targeting 2-3%)!
I knew back in the 90’s that using owners-equivalent-rent to represent housing cost was bogus and was being used to suppress the official inflation rates. It was made worse by the changes in the tax code that exempted capital gains on houses sold if you rolled over the gains into more RE.
I knew back in the ’70s. My FIL understood these things and dipped me in gold bug juice and papered me in contrarian newsletters.
I didn’t believe the scam could go on for another 40+ years.
“…now, suddenly, everyone’s debt load is 1/2 what it once was and their spending is identical. Yes, all kinds of other problems arise from this…”
Does your ‘everyone’ include grammy and grampy, who have to buy food and other household necessities on a fixed-income pension? Don’t know about their debt load (hopefully they have a paid-off mortgage and own their home free and clear), but it seems their real income and spending are now 1/2 what they once were.
As long as inflation is correctly stated, their fixed income pensions should adjust for cost of living. The problem is when the government says inflation is 2% (and therefore, granny gets a 2% bump in her monthly check) when, in fact, inflation is 10%. Granny just got 8% poorer. If inflation is 30% and granny get’s a 30% bump, it’s zero sum.
“…their fixed income pensions should adjust for cost of living.”
Fixed income pensions don’t adjust for cost of living — by definition, there are no COLAs in a fixed-income pension. Perhaps you were confusing my point about fixed-income pensions with Social Security?
“Fixed” income does not have a COLA. Gramps here does not see an adjustment in his passbook account from Uncle Sam.
“Fixed” income does not have a COLA. Gramps here does not see an adjustment in his passbook account from Uncle Sam.
And when retirees were only expected to live a few short years in retirement, it wasn’t an issue. But now, living to be 90 or more isn’t unusual anymore. 20+ years of inflation can take their toll, big time. And nest eggs are steadily eaten away.
+10^10
Inflation wouldn’t be an issue if granny would just stick to buying iPads and iPhones instead of food, water, and heat. What was she thinking?
Yes, but you are overlooking the biggest bills that granny has: medical care, and Obama and the democrats have “fixed it”.
For a single annual payment of a few thousand dollars, granny can get all the medical care she needs, even if it costs hundreds of thousands of dollars, because, well, the government has mandated it.
And if she runs low on cash, then she can get FREE FOOD via the SNAP (supplemental Nutrition Assistance program) i.e. Food stamps via EBT cards, so that cost is taken care of.
It seems that granny is much better off then you think.
What I still haven’t figured out is how you provide vastly higher “services” for food and medical care and not raise taxes or run deficits into eternity?
Even better, we’ve got about 30 Million people (government figures) who didn’t have medical insurance and now they will, and this will save us money. That’s the story, anyway.
How anyone could buy into such nonsense is most amazing, but then I witnessed the “madness of crowds” during the Obama Immaculation. So, I guess you can tell any story that sounds really nice and people will believe it if they want to bad enough.
“the biggest bills that granny has: medical care, and Obama and the democrats have “fixed it”.”
Obama and the recent democratic majority congress created Medicare? Really?
The Boomer and AARP bloc has no qualms about voting themselves benefits that are going to be laid to the account of future taxpayers, or paid for using debased Bernanke Bux.
More ridiculous commentary? You know damned well that I’m talking about the “healthcare bill” currently being reviewed by the US Supreme court. And, I am sure that you know that JOHNSON, another big-spending, war-on-poverty, great society, DEMOCRAT brought us the current disaster of never ending government solutions, biggest of which was medicare.
Snarky comments don’t do much good when the same party of stooges was charting course to society wreckage. It’s still the same party of careless and incompetent navigators. Full speed ahead. Not to excuse, of course, that fraud, George Bush for the MEDICARE part D, prescription ad on.
We all know he was an embarrassment to any true conservative.
The Boomer and AARP bloc has no qualms about voting themselves benefits
While kvetching at Tea Party rallies (sitting in their Medicare provided scooters) that gov’t is too big and taxes are too high.
“The real crime, IMHO, isn’t the inflation. It’s the understating of inflation to avoid having to pay realistic COLA for SS/salaries/etc.”
We have a winner.
Well, if you rob people and give a tiny bit back you can get along. If you rob people and give it all back, where is the profit?
FED inflation IS the problem. You have a laundry list of “adjustments” to make it all “Fair”. How does the government come up with the extra money to adjust higher payments to SS?? Higher prices for “medical care”? Food programs??
Raise taxes? Print more money (inflation on inflation)?
And you assume, much to my derision, that Mortgages and those who hold “fixed term” paper are only banks and money launderers.
What if your Retirement plan was to LOAN your savings as mortgages or fixed income annuities??.. You don’t get a ‘new payment adjustment’. You are on the losing side of the trade. Your retirement just got inflated away.
Your entire approach takes the side of the borrower and lets the lender, who most likely would be older, nearing-retirement workers who have SAVINGS they wish to ‘invest’ be the LOSER on the ‘wiping out the debt’ side of the problem.
Why should someone who worked hard and saved get their savings and income demolished via inflation?
I learned a long time ago, in my amusing studies of Murphy’s Laws and that of Unintended Consequences, You can’t Change X, without affecting Y and Z.
You, as a fixer of things, have decided who should get fixed and who should get screwed, and I would be one of those getting screwed, as my savings, which will not return 30% will buy much less than what I worked for.
Thank you for providing others with the needed insight to use mob rule to fleece those who worked most of their adult (and in my case, childhood) lives and managed to save a portion thereof. You are the friend of government parasites who think whenever things change, they should get an “increase” and we never need to cut back on the ‘benefits’. WE just need to ‘inflate away” the bad investments. Sorry. Welcome to the New Greece.
Bought a car battery lately? Went in for one in Wal-Mart over the weekend, and the prices are up at least 50% in just two years! Nobody uses car batteries, so I guess everything is ok.
You must be confused. There are several people here who will tell you that inflation is nowhere near that high.
…but I’m not one of them.
The rise in prices have taken from me what would have been a very decent paying job into just another job that gets me by.
I received a $100 a week raise only to see it completely negated in the last 2 years. That’s $5200 in on year. The price of a decent but small used car. Or a very nice overseas vacation. Or a move up to a nicer apt. Or new furniture. etc, etc…
They are not even giving 2% on COLA.
Something to always consider is that the money supply may need to be expanded due solely to population expansion. Maybe another way to say the same thing is we have a population inflation problem. If the world has a built-in population growth rate of just 3% it only takes a few decades to double but if you keep the money supply constant will the free markets distribute wealth and labor correctly in order to maintain social stability? I have my doubts. My bigger worry is that all the ‘digital’ money will be compromised by a cyber war.
It’s being comprised even as we speak.
The cyber war has been under way for 5 years.
When I saw “3%” I thought you were going to talk about the American Revolution”.
The MSM’s “All is well, markets are rising, re-elect Obama” meme fails to mention the very dangerous and disturbing parallels to the 1930s playing out in Europe.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9091837/Can-a-return-to-the-drachma-save-Greece-as-unemployment-soars.html
Greece’s unemployment bomb has detonated. After a deceptive calm, the surge in job losses since last summer is shocking even for those who never believed that combined fiscal and monetary contraction could possibly lead to any result other than ruin.
A variant of this lies in store for Portugal as its “internal devaluation” starts in earnest. The young Schumpeterians in charge of the Portuguese economy insist otherwise - cocksure that shock therapy will triumph without the cushion of debt relief and devaluation - but events have a habit of demolishing dreams.
In November alone 126,000 Greeks lost their jobs in a country of 11 million, equivalent to three and a half million Americans in a single month. The unemployment rate jumped from 18.2pc to 20.9pc.
This has not yet fed through into social breakdown. Greeks receive unemployment support for an average of thirty weeks, with a ceiling of €454 a month, according to Professor Manos Matsaganis from Athens University. Those with civil service tenure are placed on labour reserve for two years at half their basic pay, or a third of their actual pay.
Once these cushions are exhausted, Greeks are on their own. The monthly ratchet effect will then become painfully evident. It is why the Orthodox primate Hieronymos II warned in a letter to the prime minister that ever further doses of the same “deadly medicine” is becoming dangerous.
“The voices of the desperate, the voices of Greeks are being provocatively ignored. Fear is giving way to rage and the risk of a social explosion can no longer be ignored by those who give orders and those who execute their lethal recipes,” he said.
…the risk of a social explosion can no longer be ignored by those who give orders and those who execute their lethal recipes…
“Lethal recipes” = austerity measures during a depression.
You do realize that this article is a criticism of those who preach austerity in the face of economic downturns?
The debts of the spendthrift will be visited upon his children and grandchildren.
The Greeks are not suffering from a lack of willingness to borrow from the future, they are suffering from other’s unwillingness to lend to them what they cannot pay back. What’s the lesson for us?
The lesson for us?
Thank god we have nuclear weapons and lots of them? (how many does Greece have? Exactly!)
Part 2 of lesson: Issue debt in your own currency, which you can print at will.
Speaking of nukes and black swans….
http://news.yahoo.com/russian-official-hints-sub-may-armed-fire-171739376.html
Alpha, I still believe in the “general welfare” clause of the Constitution. And in our individual obligation to extend help to those in need, provided they didn’t get there through rank irresponsibility and are trying to help themselves, too.
This article was about the dangers of fiscal austerity measures during extreme economic (debt) crises. It wasn’t about privately-run soup kitchens for the poor.
Thanks for that article, Sammy. I’ve been following the situation in Greece, and find it interesting that many of my (educated and usually well-informed) friends have not.
This was one of the points that really struck me:
“Mr Papademos warns that default and EMU-exit would lead to “uncontrollable economic chaos”. But is that not already the case? No Greek bank has been able to issue a letter of credit accepted anywhere in the world since November. Large Greek companies are having to relocate their headquarters to Bulgaria in order to conduct basic trade.”
The UK press and Asia Times are telling some inconvenient truths about the deteriorating situation in Greece and the rest of the PIIGs, which aren’t going to be fixed by this much-ballyhooed “bailout” of which virtually all will be going to Greece’s creditors, not the increasingly destitute population.
http://news.yahoo.com/us-supports-idea-imf-loan-greece-geithner-215849222.html
Geithner throws more US taxpayer dollars down Greek black hole through support for IMF loans (we pay 17% of IMF’s budget).
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Gasoline will soon be approaching the dreaded $4 “freakout” level as gold is up $10 so far today. Reminder: Bernanke and Central Banks can’t print oil or gold.
Well, maybe if Americans could kick their gas guzzler habit it wouldn’t be such a big deal.
A lot of them have. Total gasoline consumption in the U.S. is down. A year ago this week we consumed 8.81 million barrels a day. This past week we consumed 8.167 million barrels a day. That’s almost a 10% decline in one year, even though the economy is a bit better now than it was a year ago.
http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_gasoline.html
The consumption numbers and charts are near the bottom of the page.
Bill is correct. And not just this year, but a steady decline over the last several years as well as an increase in reserves.
We’re being screwed and a screwed hard by the speculators… again.
If you drive to work in a Suburban or H2 or some such monstrosity, and you work in an office, you deserve to pay through the nose every time you fill the tank.
Yeah, but those are the people who can afford to not care.
Good post. Thought that it might be ethanol production but not according to the charts. Hard to believe when the neighbor just bought a giant 4×4 truck that he drives to LA and back (500 mile round trip) every week and the wife goes grocery shopping in an 8 banger Giant SUV and they go off roading twice a month.
Maybe my epically stupid 30 mile bike ride over the grade this weekend offsets them!
Hard to believe when the neighbor just bought a giant 4×4 truck that he drives to LA and back (500 mile round trip) every week and the wife goes grocery shopping in an 8 banger Giant SUV and they go off roading twice a month.
They’re likely not saving a plug-nickel for retirement either.
They don’t have to, he’s a fireman. Right?
“They don’t have to, he’s a fireman. Right?”
That’s the guy down a couple of houses.
Is the US consumption numbers include the US military? As the wars ramp down I would hope our total petroleum use would contract from this alone. Even if it does I’m pretty sure the total miles driven has declined too so there is a real decline in gas use.
Your point is well taken. What I do wonder is if this is because we are driving smaller cars, or simply driving less.
I also realize that my nabe in Rocky Mtn West isn’t typical of the nation, with either a truck or big azz SUV in every other driveway.
Nevertheless, the F-150 and the Silverado are the two best selling vehicles in the USA. Of the top 10, only 2 are “gas sippers” (Corolla and Cruze). 8 of our top 10 would be considered “thirsty” in Europe.
http://autos.yahoo.com/news/the-best-selling-cars-of-2011.html
I also realize that my nabe in Rocky Mtn West isn’t typical of the nation, with either a truck or big azz SUV in every other driveway.
No, I think that’s pretty typical of almost everywhere in the US, with the possible exception of some inner city nabes, where you’ve gotta park on the street.
Something I’ve noticed in my nabe- some people who drive SUVs/trucks seem to only have friends who drive SUVs and trucks. When they have a party or get-together, every single vehicle there is either an SUV or a truck.
That puzzles me. I guess it’s peer pressure at work.
No, I think that’s pretty typical of almost everywhere in the US, with the possible exception of some inner city nabes, where you’ve gotta park on the street.
I’m not so sure. I’ve been out to Winston-Salem, NC a few times in the past few months (my mother became very ill and passed away a few weeks ago).
One thing that struck me when I was out there was the dearth of pickups compared to my neck of the woods. My brother lives in Raleigh, and when I stayed at his place for a few days I also noticed the dearth of pickups in his nabe. I even asked him if no one drove pick ups out there. He said that if your went out to the sticks that you’d see some.
Contrast this with my street, where people living in 400K houses (definitely high end in my little burg) all seem to have trucks and Suburbans in their driveways.
Sorry to hear about your mom Colorado…
Something I’ve noticed in my nabe- some people who drive SUVs/trucks seem to only have friends who drive SUVs and trucks. When they have a party or get-together, every single vehicle there is either an SUV or a truck.
That puzzles me. I guess it’s peer pressure at work.
Interesting observation. One of my coworker is a pretty hardcore offroad truck type. He’s a great guy, but it seems to actually disturb him a bit that I know a little about his hobby and still have no interest in getting my own truck to do it with him. It’s like he’s never met anybody who has offroaded a bit in the past and chooses not to devote their life to it.
It takes about 14 years to turn over the vehicle stock in the US. There are still a large number of 2000-2006 SUV’s on the road, having been built during the SUV boom. But the numbers are finally changing for the better, as more of the SUVs are retired and replaced with smaller cars. Even a 2012 Ford Explorer gets 27 MPG on the highway, where a 2002 Ford Explorer with the same capability got 17 MPG.
I’ve noticed less of the large SUVs and more of the mid-size ones, which is a false economy, noting from personal experience that a 2011 Suburban gas consumption is roughly equal to a 2011 Jeep Liberty, which is 1/2 the size.
InColorado, you need to get out to Florida sometime. Especially south Florida, which is 250 miles away from anywhere that 4×4 would be needed - every other car is a jacked up 4×4.
Even a 2012 Ford Explorer gets 27 MPG on the highway, where a 2002 Ford Explorer with the same capability got 17 MPG.
I took a looksie at that on edmunds. With the V6 engine that number drops to 23 mpg with AWD.
In any case, in most countries 27 mpg hwy is considered “thirsty”
What you are witnessing is a lie in the economic numbers. The economy is not improving. Gasoline consumption is down because people are driving less miles, typical indication of a weak economy.
The “fleet” of cars has not substantially changed the Average MPG over the course of the last few years. The buyers of Prius and other Fuel efficient (though they have found they have been lied to about the actual mileage) are not sufficient to reduce overall consumption but by a fraction, unless they are the only ones putting high mileage on the vehicles, and everyone else drives 5 miles a day.
It’s just like the unemployment numbers. When you reduce the number of people on the roles, you get much better data. The people are still unemployed, but you change the reason: Not trying. Newly retired. and the newest BIGtime increase: DISABLED. Yes, gang, lots of new filings for disability, the retirement plan that pays and pays, without ever having to re-apply for unemployment, and has a higher RATE than SS if you actually get to age 67. You can collect the FULL amount at age 50, because, well, you just can’t really go back to work anymore. So, yes, the “employment numbers” are improving, because some many others are collecting cash in other areas of deficit spending government programs.
If you listen to the MSM, the economy is better because of fewer filings for UE insurance. Check the number of filings for “disability”. It’s reached record highs.
People also have forgotten that this has been a very warm winter in the USA.
Not so much so in Europe - record cold and lots of snow.
“People also have forgotten that this has been a very warm winter in the USA.”
Not me. The heating bill has been nice and low this year.
I’m guessing that consumption is down because unemployed people (especially those who have expended their jobless benefits are no longer show up in the fake BLS stats) aren’t driving to work or any other unnecessary destination these days.
I am one of those you describe. My biggest monthly expenses are property taxes, insurance and GASOLINE.
I have driven my Mustang (6 cyl/5 spd) less than 3000 miles in the past year.
Previously I had driven an average of about 20,000, mixed with other vehicles.
I own 3 motorcycles that get 2x the mileage. My ridership on them is up 400% or so. I don’t drive a car or van anywhere I don’t need to haul something, and often buy small amounts of groceries or supplies via motorcycle with sidebags and backpack.
I have cut MY fuel consumption by about 1/3 or better, since I still need the larger vehicles on occasion (weather, bulk items).
“Well, maybe if Americans could kick their gas guzzler habit it wouldn’t be such a big deal.”
It’s not just a car, it’s your freedom. Freeeedumb!
PS: why do you hate ‘Mericuh?
FreeDumb Fries!!!
My 30 mpg sedan affords me the same “freedom” as a 12 mpg pickup truck. I insert the key, it starts and I drive to my destination.
My 30 mpg sedan affords me the same “freedom” as a 12 mpg pickup truck. I insert the key, it starts and I drive to my destination……………
Which assumes, of course, that the sole purpose of the vehicle is as a conveyance of persons. In many cases that is true. In many cases with truck/SUV owners, that is true, also.
However, I have owed trucks/vans/trailers, and still do, as they provide “TOOLS” for hauling equipment and materials.
For City folk, who do nothing but shuffle papers and take phone calls and do office work, there is no need for a truck.
Unless, they have hobbies or other jobs that require moving stuff, like building materials. And if you do own a pickup or van, you will find that many people who don’t will often impose on you to move stuff for them when it won’t go into the back or on top of their car. Most car owners, don’t also own trailers.
One size never fits all.
I see a trend for more ‘independence’ in the economic data. Just as we see an increase in the ’survivalist’ arena, I think truck ownership is up because people sense they may need to make a haul to someplace away from the MOBS that infest cities. You can’t carry many supplies in a Prius, and you’d be hard-pressed to live in one.
I can understand that a tradesman could use a truck. And those are easy to identify. The truck has the businessname printed on the doors, there’s real stuff being hauled in the bed. Kind of like in the commercials where the John Wayne type drives off in his cinderblock laden truck.
In the real world I see shiny, unscratched trucks that are obviously used as cars by guys who work at desks, tapping on keyboards.
I think truck ownership is up because people sense they may need to make a haul to someplace away from the MOBS that infest cities
A more plausible explanation is seen in the message the commercials give: real MEN drive trucks.
Haul away from the MOBS? To where? Upper Saskatchewan?
My 30 mpg sedan affords me the same “freedom” as a 12 mpg pickup truck.
Will your 30mpg sedan get you down a snowed-in forest service road to go cross-country skiing or snowshoeing?
I’m not saying one needs a one-ton V8 dually for such things, but cars that can get you out to the crag on the weekend, or get you up the mountain, or can handle forest service roads in all seasons don’t always get the best gas mileage.
Around here (Seattle) a large percentage of folks do those kinds of activities. And therefore purchase vehicles that can enable them, even if they only go out once a month.
95% of my driving is solo. Interesting that when I drove a Corvette, a car that got 23 MPG in town, and 35 MPG on the highway, I was driving a “gas guzzler” V8.
The days of owning a SUV for show are over, just like the days of the 3500 sq ft. McMansion. Some people are still stuck in payments, others in the image/lifestyle. $5/gal gas will change that.
“…Will your 30mpg sedan get you down a snowed-in forest service road to go cross-country skiing or snowshoeing?”
Neither will a duelly or a standard-tranny pick up. That’s why so many mountain folk drive those 30 MPH Subarus. (If it’s clearance you’re referring to, presumably that’s what the Nordics and baskets are for?)
Will your 30mpg sedan get you down a snowed-in forest service road to go cross-country skiing or snowshoeing?
I live in Colorado and I’ve never needed a big azz truck.
The bottom line is that most guys don’t buy a 4×4 pickup to:
Go snowshoeing
Go offroading
Drive on forest service roads
Tow a trailer
Haul stuff
They buy it because it’s a manhood extender.
go cross-country skiing or snowshoeing?
No you silly goose. We’re all staycationing, remember?
And you know, it’s pretty funny that on blog heavy with house renters, not one of them has suggested renting an SUV when you need it. Yeesh.
And you know, it’s pretty funny that on blog heavy with house renters, not one of them has suggested renting an SUV when you need it.
I simply can’t conceive of ever needing it.
That’s why so many mountain folk drive those 30 MPH Subarus
My subaru gets nothing close to 30mpg. In fact, the mileage is just a hair better than my 1999 V6 4Runner gets. Needless to say I’m a bit disappointed.
it’s pretty funny that on blog heavy with house renters, not one of them has suggested renting an SUV when you need it.
I’m surprised that hasn’t come up either. Sure, renting makes sense for moving. But it doesn’t make sense for “hey, we got a crapload of snow overnight. I’m going to take tomorrow off and go skiing/snowshoeing/make some bad-ass snow-devils!”
BTW, speaking of clearance, I got high-centered last time I went snowshoeing in my Subaru which has 9″ of clearance. My truck would’ve been a much more suitable vehicle.
If America could kick the gas guzzler habit, we might be able to resist neo-con pipe dreams of installing pro-western “democracies” in the Middle East, courtesy of our military.
Why does the choice of vehicle get everyone so fired up? As a society we all make choices as to how to spend our money. I don’t get upset that others spend their income on Superbowl tickets or high-end furniture or horses or a $4 Latte every morning…so why does the choice of vehicle excite everyone so? In each case, there are others who think almost any spending choice is poor, as compared to their own choices.
The problem is that we have to send our military to the middle east to ensure the oil spigot doesn’t get shut off. And that costs a LOT of money.
“Why does the choice of vehicle get everyone so fired up?”
Because every dollar is a vote and by buying/driving an SUV you are casting a vote for a degraded environment and continued dependence on foreign oil and its attendant issues.
“I don’t get upset that others spend their income on Superbowl tickets or high-end furniture or horses or a $4 Latte every morning”
I do get upset. They are grasshoppers fiddling away and we are the ants saving up. Who will have to bail out whom eventually?
“…soon be approaching the dreaded $4 “freakout” level…”
Already freakin’ out here on the Left Coast…
DOWNEY: Soaring past $4 per gallon
By DAVE DOWNEY ddowney@californian.com | Posted: Monday, February 20, 2012 6:00 am
Here we go.
Prices at the pump are shooting up again. They are about to blow past $4 a gallon.
The Automobile Club of Southern California reported Friday that prices had reached an average of $3.99 in San Diego County for regular gasoline.
And the cost of filling up had reached $3.95 per gallon in the Inland Empire region of Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
Placing that in perspective, both areas are a half dollar higher than they were this time last year, the club said.
Elsewhere in Southern California, average prices hit $4 a gallon in Los Angeles and $3.99 a gallon in Orange County.
“Unfortunately, even without this large increase, prices were already at record levels for February,” said Auto Club spokesman Jeffrey Spring in a written statement. “If prices continue to increase at this pace, most areas will have averages above $4 a gallon in the next week.”
Spring said price boosts aren’t unheard of in February, but they are more common in March and April.
And prices tend to peak around May.
In other words, we could be in a for a really rough year when it comes to the cost of fuel.
Now that we’re poised to soar past the $4 ceiling, well before spring arrives, the march to that dreaded threshold of $5 a gallon could be on.
…
Now that we’re poised to soar past the $4 ceiling, well before spring arrives, the march to that dreaded threshold of $5 a gallon could be on.
One thing that surprised me was how expensive gas was over the winter in “low tax”, “right to work”, “business friendly” North Carolina. 50 cents more than in the Centennial state.
Low tax? Very definitely not. Business friendly? In some respects. Right-to-work? Yes.
“can’t print oil”
Leverage is the modern alchemy.
http://news.yahoo.com/chinas-unofficial-lending-falters-savers-protest-061439264.html
China’s “unofficial” lenders left holding the bag as the economy cools (but the MSM assures us a hard landing is out of the question).
A Chinese hard landing is about as likely as a comet destroying Earth
There are two types of asset bubble: those which are easy to isolate and deal with, and those which pose significant systemic risk to an economy.
A Chinese hard landing is about as likely as a comet destroying Earth
Raising the currency also incentivises companies to invest for domestic demand rather than for export, which conveniently fits China’s long term goal. Photo: AFP/GETTY
By Jerome Booth
7:30PM GMT 19 Feb 2012
China, like many economies from time to time, has some bubbles of the first type. They also have the policy tools to deal with them, and the wherewithal to employ them.
They do not have systemic risk problems of the kind currently still faced in the deleveraging West.
The chance of a Chinese hard landing, while technically possible, is up there with being hit by a comet big enough to cause dinosaur extinction. It is as near to a fantasy as economic prediction gets, albeit a convenient fantasy for those wanting to hang onto the tenuous argument that the developed world is still safer than the emerging world.
For example, some balance sheet analysts worry about Chinese non-performing loans. But if we re-name banks “social expenditure departments” and these banks are bailed out from central government, then there is no sudden stop, only a drain from central government – a quite affordable drain.
Likewise with the problem of local government debt to banks. The banks are being instructed to roll-over loans, so - again - there is no sudden stop, just a cost which gets centralised.
Yes, a lot of investment is wasted, but that’s to be expected. A country with over 50pc of GDP invested is clearly wasteful if it only grows at 10pc a year, not 20pc. Such waste does not imply a looming crisis.
…
CLICK!
Whistling during a stroll past the grave yard hasn’t gone out of style yet, despite untold numbers of greater fool MSM financial writers who have been wrong about almost every turn of events in the ongoing credit bubble collapse.
Yes, but who is the dinosaur in this analogy?
The media gets a lot of money from advertising. They deliver eyeballs to the advertiser and get paid. They’re going to report stories which make the advertisers happy.
DC news radio is a prime example of this. They routinely have interviews with local top real estate agents in their real estate segment. The hosts all repeat the mantra that lower prices are bad and higher prices are good. They know what side their bread is buttered on.
This blog and The Economist are literally the only places which had real information - and by that I mean information which has turned out to be on the whole accurate - during the last several years.
This blog and The Economist are literally the only places which had real information - and by that I mean information which has turned out to be on the whole accurate - during the last several years.
Agreed.
In my paper files, I have an Economist article from 2005. It predicted a lot of pain once the housing bubble popped.
As for this blog, ISTR reading about it in the LA Times during the first half of 2006. So, I made a beeline to it, and I’ve been here ever since. Thanks, Ben, for creating the HBB.
Funny. I don’t find The Economist is accurate about a great many things. The 2008-2009 reporting/editorializing was particularly bad.
They also have the policy tools to deal with them, and the wherewithal to employ them…………………
Gee, I love these kinds of innocuous statements about governmental intrusions into the lives of individuals.
What does that mean?? Policy Tools??
Is that Mandates by the government that force people to work?
wherewithal to employ them? You mean like pointing guns at people until they submit to the will of the “government”.
Don’t get me wrong, we have the same bureaucratic mindset that infects academia here in the US of A. We hear this language often, typically with groups like the FED….Policy Tools.
Yes, we, as FREE Citizens of the Grand Republic will have our lives manipulated by bureaucrats for the benefit of the insiders. There meddling will be done with some new ‘policy’.
I’m wondering what will happen should I decide NOT to buy the Obamacare insurance policy? Will I see the wherewithal to ENFORCE THEM?? We’ll see.
Five phases of China hard-landing denial
By Wayne Arnold
February 20, 2012
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
China watchers are in denial over the likelihood of a property crash. While politicians openly worry about China’s too-expensive houses, economists polled by Reuters in January still think 2012’s GDP will grow by 8.3 percent. That’s too optimistic. Here are the frequently heard examples of wishful thinking.
“It’ll never happen”
…
“It won’t be that bad for GDP”
…
“The banks can absorb the blow”
…
“Beijing will just bail out the banks”
…
“Beijing will make everything ok”
…
“they’ll never cut my job” crowd not feeling as confident these days.
Congress is considering ways to cut U.S. federal workers’ pension benefits as well as their pay and possibly their jobs even as a record number are borrowing against their pensions.
Concern over the situation almost derailed a deal to extend the payroll tax cut last week as several lawmakers objected to a provision that would have required federal workers to contribute more to their pensions. In the end, negotiators agreed to target newly hired federal workers.
There’s more ahead, as moves to hold down government salaries mirror tightening at the state and local levels. Congress is considering extending a two-year federal pay freeze for another year, through 2013. Bills designed to reduce the federal workforce continue to be introduced. And another measure is pending that includes across-the-board requirements for more contributions to pensions.
http://www.pionline.com/article/20120220/REG/120219877/federal-workers-pensions-in-cross-hairs-amid-budget-battle
“…to target newly hired federal workers.”
There’s those words again. “to target newly hired… workers.”
Selfless Unions
Little known fact: Private contract federal workers outnumber regular full time federal workers and have since 2006.
I guess “privatization will reduce government and save money” was a lie after all. Gee, what a surprise.
So much for “bloated government”, eh?
No one talks about the huge number of federal contractors and their massive hourly rate in hundreds of dollars an hour from the Govt. cheese. Firing Federal employees and hiring contractors to do the same job at bloated hourly rates is also the same bloated Govt.
The real reason the GOP wants to privatize the gov’t workers. Full-time federal employees don’t kick-back enough $$$.
It’s not a good idea to cut federal worker salaries. In my section of the gov, my coworkers are very smart, very educated people, and their attitude is “how can we protect the public?”
If you don’t pay them decently, then they will take their smarts and education to private sector, where the attitude is “what can we get away with?”
You don’t know you’re being protected until something goes wrong.
So they are only doing the right thing because it pays well enough?
For some, yes. For me, I’m doing it because I can actually get away with being ethical and NOT lying, and not get fired for it.
they will take their smarts and education to private sector, where the attitude is “what can we get away with?”
Is that how you guvvie folks see the world? How sad.
I work in the private sector. I’ve never had such a thought. Believe it or not, the world will not fall apart without y’all in government.
Sounds like the Chinese housing market is dead in the water, and their housing bubble is poised to pop louder and harder than the U.S. bubble popped six years ago.
Feb. 20, 2012, 1:39 a.m. EST
China home-sale data show prices slumping
Local reports say no new homes sold in Beijing during holiday
By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch
An ad touts a new housing development on the outskirts of Shenzhen. Recent property-price data show that real-estate values are falling in major cities across China.
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — New data showed a sharp slowdown in China’s housing market, with prices generally flat or lower, and with one financial broker citing a government report that no new homes were sold in Beijing during the recent weeklong Lunar New Year holiday.
Average new home prices were flat or lower across all large and medium-sized Chinese cities in January, compared to levels a month earlier, according to data released over the weekend by the National Bureau of Statistics.
Of 70 cities tracked by the bureau, prices were lower in 48 cities and little changed in 22, while none saw gains from the prior month.
China’s latest move to relax bank’s reserve requirements signals that it’s still focused on growth. But it may not be a reason for investors to get excited.
In December, average prices had declined in 52 cities, were flat in 16 and rose in two.
Commenting on the data, Societe Generale analysts said the Chinese New Year holiday in January led to lower transactions, which probably helped to cushion against a larger fall in prices.
The bank said that the current correction had further to run, as authorities maintain mortgage-lending curbs and other measures to discourage home-price inflation.
Bank of America-Merrill Lynch analysts said the deterioration was supported by other data, including a slump in sales of apartments and other residential dwellings during the month.
Not a single holiday sale
In an unusual development, Merrill also cited data from Beijing’s municipal housing and construction bureau that showed the Chinese capital saw no new home sales at all during the Lunar New Year week.
The analysts also cited other data showing the entire city of Shenzhen recorded just two such sales during the holiday period.
Happy George Washington’s Birthday (observed)! I refuse to call it “Presidents’ Day”, and I commemorate Abe on April 15th, that day being his true, appropriate memorial.
Anyway, to General Washington, my deepest thanks for having a hand in creating a country that did provide me with a wonderful youth and later years, and opportunities (even if I did squander them). I am sorry that it has turned into such a clusterfark.
RIP, GW!
GW was among the 1%, thanks to over 300 slaves who threw in some sweat equity for food!
The Net Worth of the U.S. Presidents - 01
1st :: George Washington (1789-1797)
Estimated net worth: $525 million
His Virginia plantation, “Mount Vernon,” consisted of five separate farms on 8,000 acres of prime farmland, run by over 300 slaves. His wife, Martha Washington, inherited significant property from her father. Washington made significantly more than subsequent presidents: his salary was two percent of the total U.S. budget in 1789.
Hmm. How many slaves does it take to produce a similar fortune today? In terms of things like debt peonage, indentured servitude (Foxconn, for example), etc? Just wondering.
I wonder what GW would have thought of the prospect that the non Hawaiin Kenyan would our president? I wonder what his slaves would have made of that?
ISTR reading that Washington was born on February 22, 1732.
Watch prices crater, then buy later for 65% less.
Perhaps I’m just suffering a period of depression, but I can’t seem to motivate myself to even bother trying to engage in logical discussion on this board most of the time.
I refuse to become a “guns, bullets, canned food and gold” person.
I refuse to become a cheerleader, rooting for total financial collapse.
As a psycologist once told me, my problem is cognative dissonance of being an optimist but all the data being negative. I need to learn to embrace my inner pesimist.
No. I refuse to do it. I have too many kids and now grand-kids to allow myself to accept (and certainly not profit from and root for) total global economic collapse.
Good for you. One thing is that if you take most of us HBBers seriously, the world is going to end tomorrow. I am no Pollyanna, but there are always a slew of opportunities out there to enrich your life, no matter how dark these bloggers paint a picture. I have found freedom in an unfree world by being proactive in all ways and being unencumbered by possessions. I lost my job in December 2010 and obtained another job a couple days later. I lost that job February 3 and started my new job February 13. 2200 miles from my old job. I will have to jump to another job in August. No biggie. I love working and saving.
‘the world is going to end tomorrow’
This BS from Darrel is getting old. Who here says the world’s gonna end? Who? I called him on this yesterday; anyone who doesn’t agree with him wants global depression. That’s crap. Anyway, I’ve read his rants and to tell the truth, I can’t understand what the hell he’s talking about.
As I pointed out a few days ago, it’s the MSM calling doom and gloom. If we don’t bomb this country or that, we’re gonna get nuked. If we don’t save Greece, it’ll collapse the world economy. Jeebus, the talking heads have gone hoarse telling us the end is near.
The end of status quo is the the only thing in jeopardy. The mere thought of which terrifies most DWTS-watching vegetables/American voters..
Ben,
Taken in light of prof’s and combo’s recent observations about the BDI, isn’t it entirely possible that part of this drumbeat to war is in response to the growing glut of dry (and oil) shipping vessels? After all, nothing makes an easier target than a big, slow-moving ship. (Especially if it’s blocking, say, a Strait)
And we all know that the insurers are TBTF.
If nothing else, it’s a creative Plan B for the ship-building speculators in Seoul.
I have no idea what’s behind this except that it isn’t what we’re being told.
Strawman much?
I’ve never said the world will end.
I’ve said that money is other peoples’ debt, and if those other people can’t or won’t repay the debt, the money poofs out of existence. When that happens, we’ll go into depression.
What do you think would happen if $5-10T ceased to exist?
And I’ve never said tomorrow. I’ve said we’ve got a good 4-8 years of $1.3T a year deficits before we Greece.
What we have here are a combination of gold bugs wanted to see gold go to $1,000,000 an ounce and the debt based monetary system ends, and another group of people wanting to see house prices fall to half their fundamental economic value so they can buy gobs of housing fir dirt cheap.
Lock up the bankers, end the Fed, let housing crash, return to a gold standard. Any and all of these would turn the USA into a 3rd world economy of slave wages and bare subsistane lifestyle.
Our economy is a lie? Yep, but there are options other than total economc collapse into depression. You know, like undoing everying that brought us to this point.
Ben didn’t say you were claiming the end of the world, but that you argued anyone who didn’t agree with you was. And once again, in response to a comment about something you said you manage to somehow turn it around with your debt equals money argument that had nothing at all to do with what Ben was saying.
Some here are expecting an economic meltdown, a very few seem to welcome it. Most however simply want housing to go down to a manageable level, i.e. three times real income. Not a goal that will allow “another group of people wanting to see house prices fall to half their fundamental economic value so they can buy gobs of housing fir dirt cheap.” I’m not looking to make a killing, I just want to buy a decent house at a decent price and I’m guessing 75% of the people here feel the same way.
I don’t think many people disagree with you as much as you think they do. But when you proclaim repeatedly how exceptional your IQ is, pout when people don’t respond to or believe in your argument, and throw a tirade at Ben responding to nothing he stated, the problem may be more with your communication style than the collective beliefs of HBBers.
…and another group of people wanting to see house prices fall to half their fundamental economic value so they can buy gobs of housing fir dirt cheap.
How about we start with the typical household income and slice it up into the monthly expenses? Depression?
There is a natural floor to these expenses if we could get the various predatory lenders and their lobbied government guarantors out of the free market.
“What do you think would happen if $5-10T ceased to exist?”
Good question. For the answer, look out the window.
Fed Chair Says ‘Normal Lending’ Key to Recovery
Daily Real Estate News | Monday, February 13, 2012
…
Bernanke addressed other issues still hindering the housing market recovery, including the fact that 12 million home owners – or more than one in five borrowers with a mortgage – are underwater. Additionally, the drop in home equity by more than 50 percent since the peak of the housing boom has resulted in the loss of more than $7 trillion in household wealth nationally.
…
“I can’t understand what the hell he’s talking about.
As I pointed out a few days ago, it’s the MSM calling doom and gloom.”
My reading of Darrell is that he is channeling the gloomiest scenarios the MSM cooks up regarding what would have happened if the bailouts that took place had not.
I refuse to become a “guns, bullets, canned food and gold” person.
I refuse to become a cheerleader, rooting for total financial collapse.
Seconded. And I’m mentally playing REM’s song, the one about the end of the world as we know it.
The key portion of that being, “as we know it.” (Or, rather, as we knew it from 2000-2007)
As I mentioned this weekend, why can’t we go back to 1996? Things seemed relatively peachy then, except maybe for California real estate…
I hardly think going 1996 would kill us. Maybe it would Iceland us, but not kill us.
“Perhaps I’m just suffering a period of depression, but I can’t seem to motivate myself to even bother trying to engage in logical discussion on this board most of the time”
You just need to find your Katra, then you`ll be dominating the Dojo.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7t8xwpW8gJQ - 91k -
Here it is.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2CTihQy_XE - 131k -
I refuse to become a “guns, bullets, canned food and gold” person.
I’ve never understood the “survivalist” approach.
1) You’ll eventually run out of bullets, canned food and gold.
2) Someone with more guns will find out you have canned food and gold, and take it from you.
Cheering for total financial collapse is just another side of the same coin. Those who cheer for it seem to believe that everything will right itself in short order and a libertarian paradise will ensue, when it’s more likely that a dictator will arise, possibly of the Communist variety.
There are a lot of libertarians who know they must work within the system to survive. This is what the outsiders such as alpha slob refuse to understand (stupidity). The best known libertarian in an unfree world of course was Harry Browne. You do not have to endorse groups, crusades, religions, or governments to work with them. You do not hve to vote or crusade to win yourself back your freedoms. The U.S. Is a highly sovietized society compared with many so called communist nations, when you factor in regulations. Some ex iron curtain nations have ten percent flat taxes and no corporate taxes.
Dopey says I should then move out of his socialist US -USSA. No. I have low personal taxes because I found loopholes to keep them low. I found freedom in the USSA. But most people here choose to ignore the loopholes that could substantially increase their own freedoms.
. I found freedom in the USSA. But most people here choose to ignore the loopholes that could substantially increase their own freedoms.
You seem to equate low taxes with freedom. Those loopholes can be easily taken away. Then what do you do? What if you can’t take your money with you if you leave the country?
And FWIW, if the gov’t thinks you’re a terrorist your 401K balance, no matter how handsome it is, won’t save you.
So you call this your free country, tell me why it costs so much to live - 3 Doors Down, “Duck and Run”
A lot of blood has been shed over economic issues. People don’t gird themselves to face powder and steel over just abstruse principles. Those principles have some real-world implications.
This country was founded in large measure over economic - taxation - issues. The North found slavery repugnant, but to the South, it was an economic issue - resulting in some six hundred thousand dead. The Arab Spring was driven in large measure by runaway food costs.
The importance of taxes in freedom (financial freedom) can’t be underestimated.
alpha slob
Ooh! Them’s fightin’ words!
I was just wondering why there are no libertarian countries, states, cities, or towns for you guys to live the dream in.
I have my own libertarian society. If I want to smoke pot, I most likely would find a way to do it without getting caught. If I wanted a high class escort, I know where I can find them and I have associates who have done so. No one forces religion on me. Check. No one forces me to recite a lovely poem every day praising the occupier of the White House. Check. It is also much easier than you hope to take wealth out of this country or to hide it in this country.
If I want to smoke pot, I most likely would find a way to do it … If I wanted a high class escort, I know where I can find them … No one forces religion on me… No one forces me to recite a lovely poem every day ….
Sounds like you live in pretty free country already. So what’s your gripe? Oh yeah, you don’t want to pay for it.
“I have my own libertarian society. If I want to smoke pot, I most likely would find a way to do it without getting caught. If I wanted a high class escort, I know where I can find them and I have associates who have done so. No one forces religion on me.”
But what happens if you do get caught? I mean, I could murder someone and if I don’t get caught am I in a libertarian paradise? In our country you can’t smoke pot, you can’t pay for sex and if you are a poor woman I guarantee you that religious beliefs are interfering with your freedoms if you can’t afford to go on the pill.
Can you really not envision a situation where testing positive for pot will affect you in some way? What if you claim your a non-smoker on your insurance and they learn you really are. Can they deny you medical care? I’m betting yes.
Pretending you have freedom in this country is nice, but at the end of the day we really don’t and we are losing more everyday in the name of “safety” or “health care.”
Personally, I cannot have an arrest record and maintain my career. So if I did want to indulge in a victimless crime, I would do it where it is not a crime. The risk for me is not worth it, it is unreasonable. I never was interested in dope anyway.
My point is that millions of people are in careers where their bosses would applaud them for doing their own thing, including victimless crimes.
You mention murder. I am discussing VICTIMLESS crimes. Do you know the difference? Good grief! I seek justice. The government’s war against drugs and prostitution is itself immoral and must be immediately stopped. Murder, rape, and property theft are NOT victimless crimes. I knew this stuff in 1979. were you born yesterday?
You didn’t talk about “victimless” crimes in your first posting, just what you could and could not get away with. I was simply trying to point out that you probably have more consequences than you think should you get caught. You seemed to imply that you already lived in a libertarian paradise because you can do what you want, but not getting caught is not the same as having freedom, thus the comparison to murder.
“The risk for me is not worth it, it is unreasonable. I never was interested in dope anyway. My point is that millions of people are in careers where their bosses would applaud them for doing their own thing, including victimless crimes.”
I did not get that at all from your original post. You were talking about having your “own libertarian society” and I was pointing out the real threats to that way of thinking.
I may have been born yesterday but at least I can respond to what is really being argued. Are you taking lessons from Darryl on how to use personal attacks whenever anyone disagrees with you?
So the question is, do YOU really have your “own libertarian society” if you have to worry about an arrest record for a victimless crime. I would argue no, but would be interested in any debate that promotes the idea that you do.
PS I think you should live in much more of a libertarian society and we should be working towards that. You should not lose your job for smoking pot or selling/buying sex even if I have no interest in either.
You don’t have low income taxes, Bill. You have high business expenses. Now, since you aren’t providing for a family in your fake apartment in Phoenix (glad to see you are no longer claiming to live there on the internet, just on your taxes), you aren’t paying for food in two places which is a nifty way to turn personal expenses into business expenses but at the expense of constantly having to maintain the cost of appearing to have two households and risking that, someday, the government might decide they don’t believe you.
By the way, the rule isn’t that you get to deduct all your living expenses at your “temporary” job for 18 months. The second your employer plans on you being there for more than 18 months, you have to stop deducting all your food, laundry, and living expenses, even if you only end up staying there less than 18 months. It only falls under the rules as long as the people who hire you consider you temporary. They don’t even have to tell you for the rule to apply. If they are audited and someone has you down as needed for two years, they can audit you and disallow all your food, etc. deductions for the entire time period because of a decision your job made without even telling you. You might want to ask them for a written confirmation of your status every couple of weeks.
School marm, I don’t 1099. At least not yet. My big tax break is different that I don’t have to keep track of all my expenses. You mention food as a single expense but conveniently ignore I pay $950 per month rent in AZ, I pay over $100 for cable TV, and I pay SRP for utilities. Again, you can dream all you want, but you are not much of a legal expert since you do not understand 100% of my out of sat at income is taxable by Arizona. And I pay it. How come there is no squawk from you that I worked in Florida all last year where there are no income taxes, but will pay Arizona income taxes on that Florida income? BECAUSE you would be then declaring me an Arizona resident and you refuse to.
By the way, my tax break is twelve months, not eighteen. Maybe 1099 rules have changed to be 18.
Don’t dream that I don’t know when my tax break expires. I have been at this for twelve years. I had no tax break in December ‘11 and in January and up to February3. My company knows very well. It is a $500 million company and yes it has tax attorneys. My pimp is well aware of my tax stance too.
My company would be who gets audited, not me.
Thanks. That confirms a lot. You are very chatty about personal financial stuff.
What is my snail mail address, social security number and phone number school marm?
As a psycologist once told me
Chatting with a psychologist over a dark beer or from the couch?
No. I refuse to do it. I have too many kids and now grand-kids to allow myself to accept (and certainly not profit from and root for) total global economic collapse.
Having kids does change one’s perspective, huh?
If it were just me I might consider the adventure of riding around on a motorcycle that runs on veggie oil, camping out, doing something like a cross between Mad Max and Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas and On The Road.
Instead, I am very clear that my job and health insurance and pension are not safe, and that no matter how many canned goods I store it will never be enough to feed my family if the sh$t really hits the fan.
Understanding this reality is ultimately what has shaped my views on immigration: yes I think there are too many undocumented immigrants, yes I think they are a strain on our economic system and environment…
…and if I had to sneak across the border to Canada or somewhere else so that I could find work in order to feed my family you know I would do it in a second.
“…my problem is cognative dissonance of being an optimist but all the data being negative.”
You’ve just described the majority of people in this country and why we’re FUBAR.
Darrell, I think we have a lot of closet idealists in here, who have a strong moral code and principals, but have their eyes wide open when it comes to unsustainable trends, i.e. the housing bubble that we all perceived while all the touts and “experts” were spouting their happy talk. Nobody in here is rooting for a financial collapse, as life would become horrific for everyone in that scenario. Know this, however: if the SHTF, I’m not going to feel the slightest obligation to help guys like you who buried their head in the sand and refused to make any prudent preparations for what is clearly coming down the pike.
At the very least, a box of rimfire will put some squirrel meat in that bowl of stocked away lentils!
Success in anything is a matter of a slight edge. There is no point honing that slight edge if you are not enjoying life to the fullest right now….
Ah heck Sammy, some of us are out of that closet.
“Know this, however: if the SHTF, I’m not going to feel the slightest obligation to help guys like you who buried their head in the sand and refused to make any prudent preparations for what is clearly coming down the pike.”
At almost 60, I have recognized that if the SHTF, I am completely fubar and nothing I do will change that. I am a rather small woman with joint issues that will not enable me to outrun (or even outwalk) the starving hordes.
“closet idealists “
In my youth I was briefly a pacifist, an anarchist, and a libertarian. At heart, I am much too practical to be an idealist.
I think you equate the removal of government house price subsidies with economic armageddon.
I make every attempt to base my world view on observable evidence. I am willing to listen to all theories but require evidence to judge whether they accurately describe the physical reality.
I have simply seen no credible evidence that removing government house price subsidies will result in economic armageddon.
When Iceland defaulted, their major banks failed. Yes there was a contraction. But their current economic picture is quite sound. They took the non-rocket-science, basic steps necessary for the benefit of the population. They separated deposit accounts from the banks’ betting operations. Then brought their financial sector to heel.
Here and in Europe, the cornerstone of policy is to save the financial sector as the unprovable belief is that the financial sector is the most important, most sacrosanct, cornerstone sector of the economy. However, the net result of the financial sector has been merely to concentrate wealth by ensnaring people in debt and creating betting instruments. Making it smaller and less politically and financially powerful will be a good thing for the society.
The self-appointed experts and top economists have been wrong about just about everything. They couldn’t see the housing / debt bubble. They keep encouraging malinvestment in real estate and construction. I just saw a big new housing development in Maryland today. It had been shutdown for years but has recently really burgeoned. I thought, “Yeah, it’s a make work project, but wouldn’t it be much more useful if the government were spending that money on true public good / infrastructure projects?”
If you agree with the government that the financial sector is sacrosanct and the cornerstone of the rest of the economy, I can see how you can then see any reduction in their wealth and power would be equivalent to financial armageddon. I however don’t see evidence for such a thing, and as a result, think a reduction in the wealth and power of the financial sector would be an unmitigated positive development for the economy.
Evidence? Look a the economy before the financial sector metastasized. Look at Iceland. Look at the similarities in income distribution today and in the 1930s. Very interesting graph in that article.
Separate deposit accounts from the Wall Street betting operations. Wall Street has in fact taken deposit accounts hostage by mixing the two. And managed to get their entire operation insured by the government. And then put a leash on the financial sector. People will lose jobs. But finally, it will be the architects of the financial crisis, instead of those doing the hard work of the real economy.
Best President’s Day comment courtesy of Zero Hedge: “If the last 12 years have revealed anything, they have shown beyond reasonable doubt that both Status Quo political parties in the U.S. are hopelessly, ruinously corrupt and thus beyond any reform or redemption. We all know why: it now takes millions of dollars to run costly mainstream media election campaigns, and the only source for contributions of that scale is the financial/corporate Elite. It doesn’t matter how you arrange the taxonomy of the financial aristocracy that rules the nation or how you subdivide it–old money, new money, family money, corporate money, etc.– the bottom line is these campaign contributions are viewed by the aristocratic donors as investments that yield gargantuan returns in tax breaks, subsidies, bailouts, sweetheart contracts, “get out of jail free” cards for the shadow banking system, and so on.”
it now takes millions of dollars to run costly mainstream media election campaigns, and the only source for contributions of that scale is the financial/corporate Elite. ………….
This is probably a great topic for a lengthy discussion sometime, but today, i need to stop screwing around and get some work done.
I just want to point out that I have blogged about this failure of DIRECT DEMOCRACY on a large scale in the past. I favored the Electoral College as one way to avoid this corruption, as you see, you can’t have Direct Democracy on a National level due to lack of information.
Campaigns spend tons of dollars to propagandize the public, which is easier to do the more remote the office and the candidate is from the voter. I gave a prior example of the election of Bob Martinez to Governor here in Florida. The papers north and south largely promoted him. He had large corporate sponsorship, and he won 66 of Florida’s 67 Counties. All but one, mine, Hillsborough. His hometown.
I think this is factually correct, but need to research the actual numbers. But the general case was true.
WE knew him and didn’t want him. He was SOLD to the rest of the State, the same way Obama was Sold the the rest of the Nation, as some kind of new brand of the same old crap.
The college of electors, at both State and National levels simply meant that local voters would select delegates to vote for them at the higher levels of office. AT least, that way, you got to know the person who would represent you at the selection level.
It would be much more representative of the people you trust to make the right decisions. There are, of course, counter arguments to the corruptibility of this kind of system, but my basic premise is that DEMOCRACY only works at the Local level, where everyone has a stake in what is going to happen to their community.
The further removed you go in the system, the more “campaigning” and “advertisements” SELL the candidate to the public, with the press aiding and abetting the candidates of their choice (typically insiders who claim to be outsiders).
The so-called vetting processes are a joke in terms of the media coverage of candidates, based on party affiliation and political ideology. Obama couldn’t do anything wrong and Sarah Palin couldn’t cough without some reporter writing a story about Palin promoting infectious diseases.
If we are going to have direct elections, perhaps we should have much easier ways to recall candidates when we find they are something other than what was represented. I’m sure that would lead to riots more likely than peace and tranquility, so it’s probably not the solution.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_2_19/02/2012_428730
Greek tax collectors told they have to become 200% more efficient at collecting revenues. How many fantasies and fabrications is this “Greece is saved” predicated on?
Bob Janjuah is back with more truth-telling in his latest article, “Monetary Anarchy.” Some key points:
1 – Greece (and the whole eurozone story) continues to lurch about, seemingly perpetually, from Farce to Tragedy. Policy seems to be focused on protecting and preserving vested interests, with little consideration given to the dreadful conditions the people of Greece and other “peripherals” are being forced to live with. However, it seems that eurozone leaders may be about to pour even more taxpayer money down into the black hole that is Greece, primarily to help the banks in Europe, at the expense of perhaps a decade of suffering by the Greek populace. For my part, I am now consigning the Greece/Peripherals/Eurozone story to the box marked “self-serving political debacle” and from here on in I will simplify Europe as follows: Until, and unless, Germany signs up to full fiscal union, a eurozone breakup is likely. And depending on how long we can continue to “kick the can” down the road in order to protect the eurozone banks, the eurozone will be consigned to an extended period of weak growth, which in turn means ever decreasing debt sustainability. Ultimately this means that the end game will simply be more devastating for us all the longer we are forced to wait. Investors should be fully aware that “home” bias amongst real money investors is now “off the charts”. This is not a good development for the eurozone, unless of course our leaders are preparing for break up, or at least considering it as a viable option.
2 – I am staggered at how easily the concepts of Democracy and the Rule of Law – two of the pillars of the modern world – have been brushed aside in the interests of political expediency. This is not just a eurozone phenomenon but of course the removal of elected governments and the instalment of “insider” technocrats who simply serve the interests of the elite has become a specialisation in Europe. Many will think this kind of development is not a big deal and is instead may be what is needed. Personally I am absolutely certain that the kind of totalitarianism being pushed on us by our leaders will – if allowed to persist and fester – end with consequences which are way beyond anything the printing presses of our central banks could ever hope to contain. Communism failed badly. Why then are we arguably trying to resurrect a version of it, particularly in Europe? Are the banks so powerful that we are all beholden to them and the biggest nonsense of all – that defaults should never happen (unless said defaults are trivial or largely meaningless)?
3 – More broadly, with Mr Draghi now in situ, it is clear that I misread and misunderstood two things. First, I am simply stunned that our policymakers seem so one-dimensional, so short-termist, and so utterly bereft of courage or ideas. It now seems obvious that in response to the financial crisis that has been with us for five years and counting, we are being “told” to double up on these same policy decisions. The crisis was caused by central bankers mispricing the cost of capital, which forced a misallocation of capital, driven by debt/leverage, which was ultimately exposed as a hideous asset bubble which then collapsed, destroying the lives and livelihoods of tens of millions of relatively innocent people. Well now, if you listen to the latest from Bernanke and Draghi, it seems that the only solution they can offer up is to yet again misprice the cost of capital, in the hope that, yet again, through increased leverage/debt, we are yet again “greedy” enough to misallocate capital, which in turn will lead to yet another round of asset bubbles. Such asset bubbles are meant to delude us into believing that we are now “richer”. When – as they do by definition – these bubbles burst, those who have been suckered in will realise that their “wealth” is instead an illusion, which in turn will be replaced by default risk.
Secondly, I have clearly underestimated the ‘market’s’ willingness, nay desperation, to go along with this ultimately ruinous policy path. Personally, I think this is extremely worrying – the number of clients who tell me that they know they are being forced into playing a game that will end in disaster, but who feel they have to play along and who hope they will get out before it turns, is a depressingly familiar old tale. Some such folks hang onto the idea that Draghi/LTRO changed the asymmetry of risk from deeply negative to positive. Yet even these folks know that printing more money/more liquidity/more debt/more leverage is not a viable solution to our ills, and in fact will mean true supply side reform and the search for true competiveness and sustainable growth will be further cast aside, as the focus will be on the “easy gains” to be made in markets.
“I am staggered at how easily the concepts of Democracy and the Rule of Law – two of the pillars of the modern world – have been brushed aside in the interests of political expediency.”
The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism is a 2007 book by Canadian author Naomi Klei.
It was all laid out 5 years ago and also written about by various other authors years ago.
Welcome to the New World Order. (maybe you’ve heard of that one as well? From around, oh, 20 years ago?)
Danger Zone lyrics
Songwriters: Loggins, Kenny; Moroder, Giorgio; Whitlock, Tom
Highway to the Eurozone
I’ll take you right into the Eurozone
You’ll never say hello to you
Until you get it on the red line overload
You’ll never know what you can do
Until you get it up as high as you can go
Out along the edges
Always where I burn to be
The further on the edge
The hotter the intensity
Highway to the Eurozone
Gonna take it right into the Eurozone
Highway to the Eurozone
Ride into the Eurozone
Cash fight:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/spain-sending-military-planes-retrieve-170530801.html
“The Civil Guard said agents would leave within hours to take possession of the booty, worth an estimated euro380 million ($504 million), and two Spanish Hercules transport planes will bring it back.”
That will pay for about 1/3 of ones day’s government budget in Spain.
Your thinking small with the power of leverage they can increase this 30 fold.
Iceland four years after the default.
Icelandic Anger Brings Debt Forgiveness
By Omar R. Valdimarsson - Feb 19, 2012 7:01 PM ET
Bloomberg
The island’s steps to resurrect itself since 2008, when its banks defaulted on $85 billion, are proving effective. Iceland’s economy will this year outgrow the euro area and the developed world on average, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates. It costs about the same to insure against an Icelandic default as it does to guard against a credit event in Belgium. Most polls now show Icelanders don’t want to join the European Union, where the debt crisis is in its third year.
Iceland’s special prosecutor has said it may indict as many as 90 people, while more than 200, including the former chief executives at the three biggest banks, face criminal charges.
Larus Welding, the former CEO of Glitnir Bank hf, once Iceland’s second biggest, was indicted in December for granting illegal loans and is now waiting to stand trial. The former CEO of Landsbanki Islands hf, Sigurjon Arnason, has endured stints of solitary confinement as his criminal investigation continues.
That compares with the U.S., where no top bank executives have faced criminal prosecution for their roles in the subprime mortgage meltdown. The Securities and Exchange Commission said last year it had sanctioned 39 senior officers for conduct related to the housing market meltdown.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-20/icelandic-anger-brings-record-debt-relief-in-best-crisis-recovery-story.html
Most polls now show Icelanders don’t want to join the European Union, where the debt crisis is in its third year.
ISTR reading an article in which the British Chancellor of the Exchequer all but gloated about the fact that *his* country stayed out of the European Union.
Icelandic voters gave the banksters the finger and refused to bail out reckless speculators and greedy “investors.” ‘Merican voters cast votes for limitless bailouts and crony capitalism with their votes for Obama and McCain. That’s the difference between citizens and sheep.
Icelandic voters gave the banksters the finger … That’s the difference between citizens and sheep.
Deadbeats rule! (Don’t let Jeff hear you,though.)
That’s not true
When TARP went through the response from Americans according to one congressman ran from no to hell no.
I don’t recall any of these guys running on the possiblity of TARP and bailouts.
The difference is their gov isn’t of by and for big money.
Both Obama and McCain explicitly supported bailouts. And Obama has presided over one after another.
The inevitable end of the line for corrupt crony-capitalist countries. Greek youths will be victims for years to come thanks to the austerity being demanded in return for a 130 billion euro bail-out being hammered out. David Blair reports from Athens.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/9094463/A-country-in-decay-Greeces-youth-pay-bitter-price-for-the-wisdom-of-their-elders.html
Erasmia Dimoula, 25, qualified as a nursery schoolteacher two years ago. Since then, she has not had a job, save for a brief stint as a waitress. She now lives at home, in a state of enforced dependence on her parents, along with her similarly unemployed sister who speaks three languages and has a master’s degree in psychology.
“If there wasn’t a financial crisis, I would be working now. I’m sure of it,” said Miss Dimoula. She will not vote in the elections expected in April and, like many Greeks of her generation, expressed nothing but contempt for the politicians of all parties who brought the country to its current pass.
“I don’t expect anything from any government, from any politician. I can only expect things from myself,” she said. “You have to take responsibility if you give your vote to these people. Then you’d have to shut up about what’s going on.”
Now the EU “Troika” wants to have a permanent role in running Greece’s financial affairs (i.e. serving as the banksters’ collection and enforcement arm while Greece goes straight to hell).
I wonder if our national bankruptcy and surrender of sovereignty is going to play out along similar lines.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/feb/20/debt-crisis-euro
Long done. Wall St. took us over in the 1980s.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/19/paul-santorum-has-an-atrocious-voting-record/
Ron Paul calls out phony “conservative” Santorum on his voting record.
Lay down lay down lay it all down
Let your white birds smile
At the ones who stand and frown
So raise candles high ’cause if you don’t
We could stay black against the night
Oh raise them higher again
And if you do we could stay dry against the rain
Words from Melanie, a strong libertarian and Ron Paul backer
Batman 1960s Intro
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZF1GKtWG0c - 141k -
Sock! Pow! Bong!
Deadbeat
Deadbeat
Deadbeat
Deadbeat
Deadbeat
Deadbeat Whap!
Deadbeat
Deadbeat Biff!
Deadbeat
Deadbeat
Ooof!
Deadbeat
Da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da
Deadbeat!
Go Caped Crusader Jethro!!!!!
da nananananananananananana JETHRO!
I rented Contagion today. Outbreak was more fun.
Contagion had a weird anti-union and anti-blogger/internet theme to it.
At least you were not out to an Open House buddy.
Ha, we did cruise an area to scope rentals. We’re pretty sure we’re going to lose our lease — I have no doubt this place could sell quick for wayyy more than we’re willing to pay.
Now accepting boxes.
U Hual sells bundles of boxes really cheap, and delivered by Fed-Ex’s rust bucket contractor fleet practically for free.
Here, we hit the grocery on Tuesdays.
I hit up the schools where I work. TONS of boxes everyday. You have to be careful though — funky things lurk in the closets of teachers and pallets in lunch areas.
I get far less than what I pay into it. I suppose you get your money’s worth.
Post got put here somehow. Was meant for slop above
Talking about taxes? I found this today and thought of some of you here the whole time I read it:
Pay Up or Die
by Laurence M. Vance
What follows is Foster’s complete list of 102 things that no one should do if he hates taxes – all followed by my comments.
http://lewrockwell.com/vance/vance279.html
Harry Browne suggested the direct approach. I am secretly a radical libertarian in the Jeffersonian and Thomas Paine and Lysander Spooner tradition but work within the system because I gotta eat.
Fortunately I am realizing another tax avoidance scheme that is unconventional and should knock my rate to less than ten percent. That includes federal, state, and social security, but not others.
Who needs politics anyway? Make your own freedom!
Fortunately I am realizing another tax avoidance scheme that is unconventional and should knock my rate to less than ten percent. That includes federal, state, and social security, but not others.
Care to share? Doubt it would apply to me as a wage-slave, but I’d love to know for sure…
Preamble to the U.S. Constitution:
“We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.
http://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/preamble
Government shouldn’t get involved in clean air and water? So, if my neighbor decides its in his best interest to use his property as a hazardous waste dump and a waste incineration facility, does it not impact me?
If the author is not being facetious, I don’t think he comprehends the concept of public good or externality (public cost of private endeavor).
I’m all for the ideal of the government and other people staying out of my business, but tempered by the reality that members of a civilization do intrude in unwanted ways both directly and indirectly on the matters of others. And instead of taking matters into my own hands, according to ways I see fit, I’d prefer an impartial 3rd party to handle it.
Promoting the general welfare is not unconstitutional. Says so right there in the first sentence of the Constitution.
However provide the welfare IS unconstitutional. Paging the marxist ostrich slop! Awareness please, of the difference between “promote” and “provide”
Street parking at USF St. Pete was .25/hr. when I graduated in 2009. Now my wife pays $1.00/hr. for the same spot.
Street parking at USF St. Pete was .25/hr. when I graduated in 2009. Now my wife pays $1.00/hr. for the same spot.
So where is the money going, schools?
If enough of you vote for Republican austerity advocates in the next election, America can share the Greek fate of a crushing debt burden weighing on a broke back economy.
Op-Ed Columnist
Pain Without Gain
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: February 19, 2012
Last week the European Commission confirmed what everyone suspected: the economies it surveys are shrinking, not growing. It’s not an official recession yet, but the only real question is how deep the downturn will be.
Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times
And this downturn is hitting nations that have never recovered from the last recession. For all America’s troubles, its gross domestic product has finally surpassed its pre-crisis peak; Europe’s has not. And some nations are suffering Great Depression-level pain: Greece and Ireland have had double-digit declines in output, Spain has 23 percent unemployment, Britain’s slump has now gone on longer than its slump in the 1930s.
Worse yet, European leaders — and quite a few influential players here — are still wedded to the economic doctrine responsible for this disaster.
For things didn’t have to be this bad. Greece would have been in deep trouble no matter what policy decisions were taken, and the same is true, to a lesser extent, of other nations around Europe’s periphery. But matters were made far worse than necessary by the way Europe’s leaders, and more broadly its policy elite, substituted moralizing for analysis, fantasies for the lessons of history.
Specifically, in early 2010 austerity economics — the insistence that governments should slash spending even in the face of high unemployment — became all the rage in European capitals. The doctrine asserted that the direct negative effects of spending cuts on employment would be offset by changes in “confidence,” that savage spending cuts would lead to a surge in consumer and business spending, while nations failing to make such cuts would see capital flight and soaring interest rates. If this sounds to you like something Herbert Hoover might have said, you’re right: It does and he did.
Now the results are in — and they’re exactly what three generations’ worth of economic analysis and all the lessons of history should have told you would happen. The confidence fairy has failed to show up: none of the countries slashing spending have seen the predicted private-sector surge. Instead, the depressing effects of fiscal austerity have been reinforced by falling private spending.
…
Didn’t FPSS tell us just a day or two back how the deleveraging would be far more painful for creditor nations than for debtor nations?
Asia Stocks Fall Amid Greece Rescue Talks
By Lynn Thomasson and Candice Zachariahs - Feb 20, 2012 7:37 PM PT
Enlarge image Euro Rises as European Leaders Reach Greek Deal
Asian stocks have climbed for the past nine weeks, pushing the MSCI Asia-Pacific gauge to a 12 percent rally this year. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg
Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) — Euro-area finance ministers reached agreement on a second bailout package for Greece that is vital to staving off a default next month, a European Union official said. David Tweed reports on Bloomberg Television “Asia Edge” with John Dawson. (Source: Bloomberg)
The euro rose for a fourth day, copper advanced and Asian stocks pared losses after a European Union official said finance ministers have reached an agreement on a second bailout package for Greece.
The euro climbed 0.3 percent to $1.3276 as of 12:31 p.m. in Tokyo, reversing an earlier drop. Copper climbed 1.5 percent and oil traded near a nine-month high. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) declined 0.2 percent as airlines retreated on concern higher energy prices will reduce profits. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures advanced 0.5 percent. Ten-year Treasury yields rose three basis points to 2.03 percent.
European finance ministers had haggled into the night in Brussels over the terms of new loans to Greece and a possible contribution by central banks. They also bartered with bank representatives over a bond exchange meant to stave off the threat of a Greek default next month. Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping said yesterday that the global economy faces an “uphill struggle” as it seeks to recover from a financial crisis.
“You really do need to factor the uncertainty into your investment decisions,” Manpreet Gill, a senior investment strategist at Standard Chartered Plc, said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Singapore. “You can’t really go out and say that we’ve solved the whole euro-zone debt crisis and this won’t come back to bother us again. These issues will still simmer over time.”
…
11:34 PM EST
February 20, 2012
11:26p
BREAKING
Greek private bondholders to take 53.5% haircut
11:25p
BREAKING
Very high participation seen for Greek exchange
Greek private bondholders to take 53.5% haircut
Coulda sworn it would end up being higher than that…
In other words, it is probably just the size of the “initial” hair-cut.
Paul Krugman - New York Times Blog
February 20, 2012, 8:12 pm
Hoover/Brüning 2012
I haven’t written much lately about the spate of articles either calling for, or at least wistfully speculating about, a “centrist” third-party candidacy. It’s nonsense, of course, on multiple levels. For one thing, if you look at what pundits calling for such a candidacy want, it’s all already in Obama’s proposals. For another, it’s not going to happen. For a third, the favorite imaginary candidate, Michael Bloomberg, turns out to be totally ignorant about the economic crisis.
But thinking about today’s column, I realized that it’s even worse than that. What defines centrist heroes, as far as I can tell, is that they are people who, faced with a catastrophic slump driven by private-sector abuses, and a severe shortfall of spending, declared that our most urgent priority is … to reduce budget deficits.
That’s often described as a courageous position, but it’s actually anything but: nobody in the Beltway dinner-party circuit has ever been ostracized for demanding entitlement cuts. And aside from being totally conventional, it’s also deeply wrong-headed — and if you ask me somewhat unethical, too, because it involves exploiting a crisis to push an agenda totally unrelated to that crisis.
Anyway, my thought for the evening.