Bits Bucket for February 23, 2012
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
December 2024 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
I give up even trying to form cogent arguments. I think I’m entering the snarky, 1-liner phase.
Enjoy eating and living in your gold.
I give up even trying to form cogent arguments.
You didn’t even last one post before trying to form a cogent argument.
[/snarky 1-liner]
I just traded a bit of gold for a cargo trailer, same as cash.
Did you bring your little scale, too?
Yes, you traded one asset for another. That’s called “barter”. Barter is the same as cash, in that respect. But gold is not money.
Comment by Muggy
2012-02-22 18:36:39
“What do you think the effect of that $5T of money poofage would have on the global economy?”
I don’t know, but I want a cheap house and a few good, “I toldya sos.”
Hmmmm… interesting. I’d rather have more, better paying jobs to justify the house prices rather than cascade default into global Greater Depression with decades of 30+% underemployment.
Guess you put a much higher value on “I toldya sos” than I do.
I’d raher my kids not have to spend the first couple decades of their adult lives living in my spare bedroom and scrounging for part-time, minimum wage jobs. I’d rather my grand-kids not spend the first decades of their life sharing that room with their parents… All so you can tell my parent’s/older-sibling’s generation “toldya so”.
That’s just me I guess.
OK, this is your lamest post yet:
‘I’d rather have…’
Get ready for the ‘agree with me or this is what you’ll get/you’re a heartless monster’:
‘better paying jobs to justify the house prices rather than cascade default into global Greater Depression with decades of 30+% underemployment…my kids not have to spend the first couple decades of their adult lives living in my spare bedroom and scrounging for part-time, minimum wage jobs…my grand-kids not spend the first decades of their life sharing that room with their parents…’
Damn Scary D, we’re in for a world of hurt if we don’t sign up to the Darrell in Phoenix plan! Have you written the president yet? I’m sure the white house wants to prevent all this bunking up you predict.
Then the classic ‘poor me’ line:
‘That’s just me I guess.’
Yeah, that’s just you. Can’t get a point across and anyone who can’t follow your rambling would “rather” have “your” family (nice personal victimization BTW) eating gruel in your basement.
You know, if you’ve got it all so figured out, turn your mighty wisdom to the markets and make a killing in trading.
Darrell just doesn’t seem to be able to grasp how adaptable economies are. They can survive all sorts of crazy stuff when allowed to change. Crony capitalism enforcing status quo is what really causes harm.
What the heck?
I’m calling for ALL KINDS of change, including the end of crony capitalism.
I don’t want the status quo. I want us to reverse everything we’ve been doing for the last 60 years. I just want to do it in an order than has a chance, all though small chance, of doing it without a cascade debt default into depression.
End free trade with a tariff on money leaving the country. Steep income tax with 90%+ top marginal rates and TONS of deductions for things that actually create jobs. Massive re-regulation of banks and markets. Let most of the existing debt collapse, but ONLY after we’ve attacked and reversed the trade imbalances that made the debt necessary in the first place.
To me, this is a much better order than starting with debt collapse, and letting the resulting depression cause the trade imbalances to go away.
Just me I guess, as it seems most people would prefer we start with asset price collapse, triggering money poofage and cascade debt default into depression.
Extrapolation to infinity is what the guys who got us into this mess were doing too.
Your prescription doesn’t strike me as a bad one, Darrell.
But there is one fly in the ointment: after things have turned around and the economy is on a sustainable footing, it would be impossible to justify defaulting on all of that debt.
Debt-default always occurs in a time of crisis.
Here’s the deal. The 5t in debt has already poofed but we’re just pretending it’s there, until replacement money can be slid into the hands of the oligarchs. Any continuation of this is crony capitalism.
You know what the economy needs to get out of this cycle? A depression. The system needs to seize up and we all take a bunch of pain so the economy can adapt to reality.
You’ve expressed concern that the system can’t handle massive failures. I think you’re wrong. If a bank has a positive net worth with MtM accounting, then someone will be interested in buying some or all of it for the right price. Breaking up banks into bite size chunks is a major side benefit. If a bank has a negative value, then the bond holders become owners. Only in the worst cases where deposits can’t even be covered will FDIC have to use its reserves. If the reserves run out, the government starts handing over more money. Better FDIC than GS, F&F, etc. And it’s all legal.
Lastly, do you know what would happen if major trade barriers were thrown up? It would cause significant changes to the economy and throw it into depression leading to cascading defaults. In the long run, it might prove a net benefit to the US but the pain of a depression will come either way.
You don’t warp an economy with excessive debt and all the other nonsense and get away without paying the piper.
Crony capitalism enforcing status quo is what really causes harm.
Ding. Ding. Ding.
You have hit the proverbial bullseye. And that is why this housing fiasco will continue for years, without relief for the average American citizen.
I’ve just been reading some of the “plans” for the FREDDIE/FANNIE REO’s, concerning the concept of “renting them out” to keep from flooding the market. They have about 1 million in accrued holdings and another Million coming down the line.
So, here, in a shortened version, is the plan.
Fannie/Freddie STOP sales to individuals and BULK sell the properties, at a loss to taxpayers to PRIVATE EQuiTY hedge funds, with groups like Goldman-SUCHs taking 10’s of thousands of them. They BUY at 10cents on the dollar and rent them out at market rates (they get a ‘volume discount’).
This is similar to private persons, like you are me, buying property as rentals, and then holding it for 10 years to gain inflation of prices. The huge discount makes a stupendous ROI for the hedge funds. They are PRIVATE. NO Public offerings, so You and I can’t get any return.
Phase 2, convert all the properties to Real Estate Investment trusts, and hire management teams to collect the rents. HOLD until the market can recover (maybe 5 to 10 years) and then sell them at FULL Market price when the prices regain their earlier heights. It doesn’t matter how high they get, the FUNDS will have continual cash flow investments until they are ready to liquidate.
What this means is that YOU and I won’t be able to get “Cheap”, Affordable housing units from Fannie/Freddie. Only the money-changers, probably with Zero interest loans from the FED, will get to Buy houses and the rest of the people who paid for the losses, will get nothing, except the ability to pay top dollar rents, as the inventories are pulled from the “sale” market to the rental market.
That, my friend is CRONY Capitalism at it’s finest. That’s Change we can believe in. Yes, we can. Ha.hahahaha. Working for the Workingman. Fighting the Big Banks. bWAhahahhahah!! And they say Republicans are for Wallstreet crony capitalism. I beg to differ. Great profit plan.
“Crony capitalism enforcing status quo is what really causes harm.
Ding. Ding. Ding.”
Agree.
So, like a patient with cancer, do we kill the patient to kill the cancer? Or should we see if it is possible to directly attack the cancer and kill it without killing the patient. As someone that was diagnosed with cancer 15 months ago, I recommend going after the cancer and not the whole patient.
IMO: if we were to simply stop supporting the debt bubble, without first directly attacking the trade imbalances that made the debt necessary in the first place, would be the same as putting a loaded gun to the head of the patient and pulling the trigger.
By propping up the debt bubble you’re forcing local prices higher, while imports remain cheap. So the only way to correct the trade imbalance is to forcefully stop imports. However, a sudden disruption in trade will limit or stop exports and will leave shortages of goods that were previously imported. Reduced economic activity from forcefully restricting trade will cause the same cascade defaults you’re trying to avoid.
The patient won’t die no matter which treatment course we chose, but either way the patient is going to get sicker before getting better. But deflating the debt bubble is both moral and legal.
Darrell, you seem like a fairly bright and attentive guy. But you’re fighting a losing battle. Regardless of what Americans say they believe, the voter rolls demonstrate clearly that 95%+ of them support the status quo. You can’t stop crony capitalism because that’s all that the political process supports.
Your only real option is to downsize your own lifestyle and live frugally to prepare for a future of Argentine-esque poverty for you and your class of person. Your wages will be suppressed and there’s nothing you can do about it. Your savings will be taxed and there’s nothing you can do about that. Your government hates you and there’s nothing you can do about that. Adapt or be crushed.
… and it’s not like the adaptation is inhuman or anything. I’m just telling you to return to the 1960s lifestyle. Stop ingesting expensive media. Cut up your credit cards. Enjoy quality and quantity time with family and friends. Learn to fix and install things yourself. Start a garden. Etc. Once you start disconnecting from the system of a corporate-fueled lifestyle, it’s inevitable that you’ll see what I mean.
I have friends who now make their own laundry soap. I use solar heating to significantly supplement my residence heat. We use backyard mechanics for our auto work for the stuff we can’t do ourselves. I own and operate a welder. So we’re living our ideals. I invite you to join us. Drop out, live well, and just ignore the government.
If I can’t convince people that money is other people’s debt, then further argument is pretty much pointless.
For the few that get that money is other people’s debt, it becomes obvious.
Let’s say we
1) Stop the easy loans that are propping up the markets.
2) Force out the existing deadbeats and get those houses back on the market.
House prices crash way below traditional metrics of price/rent and price/income and become cheap. Meanwhile Muggy gets his cheap houses and I toldya sos.
He wins.
$5T in mortgage debt goes away, $5T money goes away. Every major US Bank is insolvent and poofs out of existence. Because of the interconnectivity every bank on the planet is insolvent. Sorry, but neither the US government nor the other governments around the world can make good on FDIC insurance of this magnitude.
Businesses are dependent on their ability to roll over debt. Just as in 2008, once the ability to roll over goes away, bankruptcy follows. There will be a cascade debt default that will take business debt back to 2000 levels or less… this is an additional $5T debt… poof.
That’s right. To get back to 2000 debt levels, 1/3 of all dollars in existence have to poof into non-existence. FDIC insurance attempting to cover that massive poofage would require we DOUBLE the real national debt. Sorry, but FDIC isn’t paying.
Or, I suppose you could offer an alternate scenario. How about you explain to me how we could have $5T in mortgage debt poofage, which would just get us back to 2000 mortgage levels, and not trigger a cascade default. Who’s eating that loss of $5T in money going poofage?
And, that is what I’ve been asking for. An alternate scenario that explains how we could wipe out $5T in debt and not trigger a global Greater Depression.
So far, I’ve seen less than squat for an alternate scenario.
Then again, I shouldn’t expect people that can’t/won’t even understand what money is to offer much of a reasonable scenario to account for $5T in debt poofage.
1982 Darrell. Further back if you are in Phoenix.
FDIC insurance attempting to cover that massive poofage would require we DOUBLE the real national debt. Sorry, but FDIC isn’t paying.
Sorry, but this is nonsense. The “1/3″ of dollars that you say would have to poof out of existence are mostly not deposited in FDIC-backed accounts.
Try redo-ing your analysis with real data of what the FDIC-covered deposits actually are in this country.
back in 2007ish I recall it being $50B in the FDIC trust fund backing $5T insured deposits. As of Sept 30, 2011 we had $7.8B backing $6.8T insured deposits.
And, it is that $6.8T that will be first to go poofage in a massive crash of housing and us pushing through foreclosures into an overly saturated market without support mechanisms.
I believe that is the total deposits at FDIC-insured institutions, but that isn’t the same FDIC-insured deposits; in other words, people or corps with more than the FDIC-insured limits have some portion of their deposits fall into a non-insured category.
I’m having trouble finding good data on what the true FDIC-insured deposits is, though…
Any pointers?
Sorry, but you’ve been reading too much MSM propaganda. Currencies have collapsed many times, even in this country. Did the world end? No. The economy re-adjusted and new pricing was achieved in rather short order.
We look at the Great Depression and say, that if we don’t have massive intrusion by the FED that we will end up just like back then. WRONG> There was MASSIVE government intrusion back then, and that is the very reason why the economy was in a Malaise for 15 years. The very reason.
Take a look a Japan. They’ve had 20 years of a declining market and housing because they didn’t allow a collapse, but went on supporting those who should have been WIPED OUT.
We are doing the same thing, claiming that the END OF THE WORLD will result of the Wallstreet/Banksters that have BET massively with borrowed money don’t get WIPED OUT, then everyone will suffer. We are already suffering and NO justice has been served. The markets are rigged for Goldman-Suchs and Friends.
If you look at history, whenever these types of financial crises have arisen, the markets sort themselves out pretty quickly when the LOSERS get wiped out, and their “assets” are bought up by people who had saved their money. The approach of the FED is to wipe out SAVERS and keep the game going for the Wallstreet gamblers. The debts remain. The whole system is corrupt to the core. Goldman-Suchs, JPM, Wells FArgo, et.al should be WIPED out and their employees begging for jobs, not the contrary: them collecting tax-payer funded BONUSES on fake investment winnings, while everyone else tries to find useful work. Kill the FED. Kill the Banks, and start over with NEW treasury sponsored banks after getting every single Goldman former employee OUT OF the US Government. That’s what we need. DEFLATION. Dislocation. Debts discharged. Not his slow bleed that the Banksters and MSM are calling ‘recovery’.
Diogenes
You have written a very good piece here. I wish the politicians had some guts to let the market take over.
Why are we hurting a major part of the economy that can get us out of this mess?
However, how many times throughout history do we have to live thru being ripped off and then that guy gets a bonus for doing it?
“Every major US Bank is insolvent and poofs out of existence.”
I’m pretty sure the infrastructure, employees, etc don’t actually disintegrate with insolvancy. Even some of the paper products remain. Someone will buy them, probably cheaply with 5t poofed out of existence. 3 cheers for price discovery!
“That’s right. To get back to 2000 debt levels, 1/3 of all dollars in existence have to poof into non-existence.”
In roughly a decade, 1/3 of all dollars were brought into existence. That’s why the system will collapse.
“Who’s eating that loss of $5T in money going poofage?”
Much of it will be the thus far well protected group called bondholders.
“And, that is what I’ve been asking for. An alternate scenario that explains how we could wipe out $5T in debt and not trigger a global Greater Depression.”
There is no primary or alternate scenario. But at least by following the rules (ie allowing bankrupt business to go bankrupt) we can get back to business that much quicker after the depression.
You guys make me proud to be an HBBer …
“In roughly a decade, 1/3 of all dollars were brought into existence. That’s why the system will collapse.”
Great comment, Al. The funny money must go away. Only those with “saved money” (okay, or those with 3.5% down) will be able to buy things like houses. It’s back to 2000 we go. No sweat. Now if only prices would actually align.
Prices will align. Trouble is the glacial pace, and that fact that we age.
Let’s see, what’s more likely and realistic. Wages triple so that prices are justified or the invisible hand finally gets through the politicians’ reality condom and prices fall back to justified levels?
Put that wish next to the Candy Crappin’ Unicorn.
End free trade by putting a tariff on money leaving the country.
Bring back the 1950s style tax code with a 90%+ top rate and lots of deductions.
Low to no payroll tax.
It has a heck-a better chance of avoiding depression then stepping out of the way of market forces, allowing prices and debt to collapse, massive money poofage, cascade default.
“reality condom”
Quite a catchy phrase!
Bit of a mixed metaphor with the invisible hand breaking through it, though.
Muggy’s cheap house will only come at a price of cascading default into global Greater Depression with decades of 30+% underemployment.
Thanks for summarizing it so succinctly for us, Darrell.
P.S. One of my all-time favorite Housing Bubble experiences was the time I schooled a Phoenix-area developer on the looming real estate disaster when he was visiting his ex-wife and son in San Diego, circa 2006. The guy had the deepest religious conviction that I have ever witnessed about how the Phoenix area building boom would never end, etc. All my prescient warnings fell on deaf ears, as pearls cast among swine.
well see it was all the negative talk like yours that caused the bust!
Our kids and possibly grand kids scraping along for years is a given.
The promises of government cheese will continue unabated with diminishing delivery of said cheese. Then it will morph into promises only.
Think Greece. The poster-boy for government cheese and baklava.
“I’d raher my kids not have to spend the first couple decades of their adult lives living in my spare bedroom and scrounging for part-time, minimum wage jobs.”
Me too. Cheap houses now.
Gannette, who owns the local fish wrap AZ Republic, and the affiliated local news website azcentral, made a funny.
They say the are going to start charging for access to news via their website. LOLOLOLOLOL.
I didn’t realize yesterday was April 1. I lost a month and a half somewhere.
As if we won’t just go somewhere else for the content.
Paid content was tried and proven unworkable years ago.
Must be some nooB running the place
turkey…..give me some usable coupons only available to subscribers like oil change for $15….10% off shopping at say safeway…..deep teeth cleaning for $25 20% off shoes…..
Lets see the offers and after you pay the $4.95 a month you can download the coupons.
Groupon.
Done.
Sorry i mean REAL coupons the ones you dont have to pay up front for….like in the old days…..
Paid content was tried and proven unworkable years ago.
Not necessarily… the Wall St. Journal does very well with their paid internet subscription model. Once my family adopted iPhones and Ipads, the dead tree version just didn’t make sense, but the online version continues to be well worth the money spent.
BTW, WSJ is the only online content I pay for… it all comes down to the value of the content.
WSJ is no longer worth the subscription after Murdoch took over. It has morphed from a business publication with good journalism to a more subtle version of the Daily Mail.
I agree. My mother and father have been avid WSJ readers for many years.
But I’ve noticed a striking difference between the quality of reporting in the Bancroft family-owned WSJ and its current incarnation.
And I wouldn’t be doing my job as your HBB Librarian if I didn’t have a book recommendation. Here it is:’
War at the Wall Street Journal by Sarah Ellison
If it matters, the smart bunch on Wall St. read the FT not the WSJ.
The WSJ is used to see how the dumber portion thinks. The FT is used to actually understand how the smart portion thinks. (Of course, you’d have to be smarter and anticipate what the FT will eventually say if you hope to make any money at all.)
Sorry, but I used to work for FT’s parent, Pearson. I hate that company, so while I read the free content, I absolutely refuse pay for it. Ef’em…
This is hardly a rational argument.
I’m talking content. You’re talking how badly you were treated once upon a time?
Seriously?!?
This is what passes as a logical argument these days?
Wow, just wow!
True, but the WSJ doesn’t just print stories pulled from AP or Reuters.
WSJ paid?
I have subscribed for free.
Same with the Financial Times.
Same with Stratfor.
But then I’m also NOT using their more comprehensive analysis reports, which IS something worth paying for.
Some content on wsj.com is free, but the majority of it is behind the paywall.
True, but I like FT far better.
It makes me wonder if in the future news stories will just be company PR pieces.
I think that is already the case.
Almost half of what you read today as “news” are PR pieces.
Technology, particularly the internet, has played havoc with many industries and thrown millions out of work…work they spent decades and many dollars trying to perfect.
The industrial revolution put numerous smiths, coopers, wrights, etc out of work. And those jobs were skilled and high paying. We should have done something to stop it.
Replacing physical labor with machines isn’t the same as sending the jobs overseas because the wages are lower, and there are no safety or environmental regulations there.
“Technology, particularly the internet…”
See also: Factory automation.
Point being is that the subscription model does not work 98% of the time, therefore, does not work for all practical purposes.
They have already implemented pay walls in a few of their markets and they have done well enough that it is going company-wide here in short order.
Newspapers missed the boat years ago when they gave away their content for free on the Internet instead of charging for it, IMHO.
Realtors Slam Obama Foreclosure-Rental Plan
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/02/22/realtors-slam-obama-foreclosure-rental-plan/?mod=WSJBlog
‘Real estate agents, particularly in California, have been upset about the idea. The trade group’s top economist, Lawrence Yun, chimed in Wednesday, saying in a statement issued with a monthly home sales report that plenty of buyers are snapping up foreclosures in “nearly all” U.S. housing markets. As a result, Mr. Yun said, “a government proposal to turn bank-owned properties into rentals on a large scale does not appear to be needed at this time.”’
What’s their alternative plan? Let the myriad vacant homes rot and waste?
Plan B? Blame the next leg down on the TEA Party?
The alternate plan is that they should be selling them at MARKET PRICES. That means, you put the house up for sale at what you “think” is market price. If it doesn’t get offers or sell within 60 days, you reduce the price 25%. IF it doesn’t sell withinanother 45 days, you REDUCE it another 25%. Then 10% every month, until someone BUYS it. Or whatever auction terms you want.
That’s how you discover MARKET PRICE. There is a MARKET PRICE for every single commodity in the world. If it’s not selling, the price is too high. It’s really very simple.
Lot’s of bargains for those with Cash. Then, when all the inventory is absorbed, we can see what existing houses will bring when there is much less available property.
We should have already been at this stage and would be, except that FREDDIE/Fannie were given the mandate to sell to Owner Occupants. Another government ‘do-gooder’ plan to get people into houses they own. Get government out of housing. That should be the alternate plan. It will end this “housing crisis” quickly.
You know, Dio, you make some awesome points when your posts aren’t laden with partisan political rants. I’ve enjoyed your posts today, thanks. Of course, I haven’t read to the end of the page yet.
I got the impression no one was reading my posts, except Ben, who throws them away whenever, race or ethnicity enter into the discussion. I understand his perspective, but I am also a believer that One person is not a substitute for anybody else regardless of race, color, creed, religion, gender, nationality or political affiliation. To me that’s pure propaganda and government meddling with experiments at making everybody “equal”. If it were true, then Uganda would look like Austria, which it doesn’t, and never will.
I enter this issues, because I believe the racial/sociological and religious differences make huge differences in outcomes.
I see huge differences in the way people live, in terms of neighborhoods, largely split on racial grounds. Consequently, I am inclined to introduce these salient points whenever they are justified as part of the discussion. Many people take offense, and I say, let them be offended. No one is guaranteed a “right” not to be offended, and Hate crimes and Hate speech laws are about as fascist as a government can get. I could rant on forever, but I am not inclined today.
I am glad that you are finding my meanderings somewhat thought provoking and hope they will help you clarify your own thinking about the many challenges we are facing here today. You know my political leanings, but I only bring those into the discussion because the SOLUTIONs proposed by the various parties are also widely divergent. I want LESS government intrusion. I support RonPaul and have never heard him say anything “kooky”. The press will go on, at length about him being a nutjob. I find that offensive.
Anyway, I hope you are having a pleasant day and I will try to fill the post with some other tirade if time permits, today, so as to give you a feeling of consistency and sureness about the state of the world you live in.
D.
“I got the impression no one was reading my posts…”
That’s because people get tired of political posts without objectivity. I know I do. Today, I actually went back and read yours because, while skimming them the first time, I didn’t see “Democrat this” or “liberal that.”
“If it doesn’t get offers or sell within 60 days, you reduce the price 25%. IF it doesn’t sell withinanother 45 days, you REDUCE it another 25%. Then 10% every month, until someone BUYS it. Or whatever auction terms you want.
That’s how you discover MARKET PRICE.”
That’s also how you conduct a DUTCH AUCTION.
The trade group’s top economist, Lawrence Yun, chimed in Wednesday, saying in a statement issued with a monthly home sales report that plenty of buyers are snapping up foreclosures in “nearly all” U.S. housing markets.
Here in Tucson, a lot of the snapper-uppers are buying houses to rent out. Although a few of them have solid business plans behind their snapping up, I think that quite a few of them are novice landlords who are betting on a nice sprinkling of dust from the appreciation fairy.
And I think that they’re going to be very disappointed.
The alternative to Yun and the used house sellers is to make sure the sales go through channels where the used house sellers can make a commission. If bulk sales to investors happen, there will be no inventory to buy and sell, and lots of realtors will not have any gravy bowl to sip from.
Home prices at lowest point in more than 10 years
http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/22/real_estate/home_sales/index.htm
Only nineteen more years to go to get back to 1983 prices.
Housing’s Dilemma: There’s Not Enough To Buy
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46482311?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS
Last week I wrote about how fewer foreclosures up for sale in the housing market could actually mean lower overall home prices.
Getty Images
That may sound counter-intuitive, given that we always talk about how distressed sales deflate comparable home prices.
My reasoning is that foreclosures are in high demand right now, and organic, non-distressed sellers are still not coming back to the market. Without the foreclosures, there really is no competitive market.
I hate to say, “I told you so,” but … today the National Association of Realtors reported that inventories of homes for sale in January fell to 2.31 million, the lowest supply since March, 2005. Rather than pushing home prices higher, they are still down, 2 percent, from a year ago.
I mentioned yesterday that at the lunch table in the cafeteria my coworkers discussed Denver area housing prices. The consensus (with a disention or two) was that demand was high and inventory was low, at least in the desireable neighborhoods. A few young pups were clearly eager to get into debt and buy a place, and the only thing holding them back was the lack of affordability and bidding wars, but they were clearly chomping at the bit.
Some Denverites cope with the high housing prices by living in places like Aurora or Longmont. In any case, it’s just weird as there are plenty foreclosres happening. I have even seen it in my neighborhood: a handful of houses that have been empty for a 2-3 years, yet are not placed on the market. Even stranger, the houses are kept up, with green, mowed lawns.
You have to mow the lawn in February?
I do. My grass never died. Stupid too hot summer and then stupid hot winter. I like seasons.
Of course not. I meant over the past few summers the empy houses have had trimmed, weed free lawns, which strikes me as odd.
It’s a small possibility that if they are newer houses, they have zoysia grass, which grows very slowly so it stays short, stays green on basically just rainwater all summer, and chokes out weeds naturally. I would think it would grow just great in lowland Colorado with temperate (not too cold) summers. It immediately goes dormant in September when the day/night temp doesn’t cross about 50 degrees for a few days, which is a small downside while other grasses stay greener longer.
If you live south of the middle of the US, then I strongly recommend it.
/And that ends our lawn grass lesson for today.
It’s a small possibility that if they are newer houses, they have zoysia grass, which grows very slowly so it stays short
Nope, it’s bluegrass. Everyone seems to have bluegrass out here.
If you want to buy where there are any reasonably well paying jobs, the median price is no where near $154k. In the areas we can find jobs that pay our current salaries we are seeing $400k median. The houses at $400k are junk, outdated and unmaintained.
The propaganda is tiresome and trite.
You must be referring to the DC area and surrounding suburbs in Virginia and Maryland. With billions of dollars of deficit spending creating massive amounts of new government agencies and “jobs”, that area is about the only one that has been “growing”.
It’s a fraud, but then, the money is flowing and it makes the economy look great.
I guess it is if you are a government insider or contractor or work in an industry that is government subsidized or supported.
I don’t think most of the country is as you see it.
I’m seeing it in Denver. The choice parts of town have defied gravity so far, while the yucky nabes have crashed and burned.
We knew that would happen a long time ago, right? I think we just thought the collapse inward from stuff that never should have been built to prime locations finally going down would happen a lot faster. So we still can’t be sure the prime locations will eventually go down. I still think they will, though.
Question is: when? The thermodynamics is well known. Kinetics is the wild card.
+1. Same here, InCo, much to my chagrin.
Realtors Are Liars®
Former IndyMac CEO Mike Perry is laughing at you.
The banks!
You are a dime on the sidewalk that Henry Paulson steps on without noticing (not that Henry Paulson walks on sidewalks).
The liberals!
Stuck in the rent trap: How one middle-class family kept remortgaging their home to pay the bills, until they could no longer afford the repayments
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2105011/Stuck-rent-trap-How-middle-class-family-kept-remortgaging-home-pay-bills-longer-afford-repayments.html#ixzz1nCxGQ4oq
Poor speculators my heart bleeds for them. The reason you lost the house is you could never afford it!
“In our defence, we weren’t spending the money on expensive designer clothes, luxurious holidays or flash cars. Much of it was going on school fees and upkeep of the house.”
i do not believe you.
unless i get to review every loan and trace every expenditure i will never believe you.
only i can make the determination as whether or not you lived beyond your means. school fees can be just as lavish as a lambourghini or a trip to Bora Bora…when there is an adequate and more frugal alternative.
FBs are liars.
agreed Michael…..If she said I spent $100,000 of “equity” on a liver transplant for my hubby…I would be the first to write off the debt, and let them live there with a much lower interest rate…
They are in England. Liver transplants are free.
Are they now??? Yum!!!
oops…well any huge out of pocket medical expenses, should be considered first for a re-fi writeoff….if they can still afford the payments. to live there……ya gotta keep hope alive…
wow…a worry free existence with respect to any form of healthcare with no limits…and they still can’t save.
morons…they don’t “deserve” free livers.
ok…that was a bit harsh and i do apologize.
There was no liver transplant involved. They just have 4 kids, chose private school over what the government provides and refinanced themselves into a payment they couldn’t afford. So they sold the house (seemingly without taking a loss) and rent. Now they can’t save enough for a new downpayment which the article says is required for a new loan (20%).
Hardly a tragedy.
Hardly a tragedy.
In fact, they should be thanking their lucky stars in a few years, as the downward march continues, and they manage to dodge the financial bullet…
People like this that refi’ed to the peak really sold at peak prices; they are the lucky ones.
Stuck in the rent trap: How one middle-class family kept remortgaging their home to pay the bills, until they could no longer
afford the repaymentsremortgage.Comment by polly
2012-02-22 12:11:51
“Plus Colorado was too nice to point it out, but when someone tells you that you make your point better with real statistics than with anecdotes from your locale, the correct way to make your case is with….real statistics, not poorly written anecdotal stories on a different though possibly related topic from the questioner,s locale.”
Where does one find these “real statistics”?
Foreclosed Inventory Shrinks as Homes Sell
By John Gittelsohn - Jun 22, 2011 9:30 AM ET
About 1.7 million U.S. homes were in the foreclosure process and expected to be put on the market as of April, down 18 percent from the peak, as fewer loans entered delinquency and more distressed homes sold, CoreLogic Inc. (CLGX) said.
Other shadow inventory estimates are higher. About 3.8 million U.S. homes are “vacant and held off the market, part of the large, so-called shadow inventory,” Assistant Treasury Secretary Mary Miller said in a June 9 address in Washington. Rick Sharga, senior vice president of RealtyTrac, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television yesterday that the number may be as high as 5.7 million.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-22/u-s-shadow-inventory-shrinks-as-foreclosed-homes-sell-corelogic-says.html - 158k -
Michael Olenick: 9.8 Million Shadow Inventory Says Housing Market …
Jan 11, 2012 … “Shadow inventory,” the number of homes that are either in foreclosure or are likely to end up in foreclosure, creates substantial but hidden …
———————————————————————————-
Existing home sales to be revised lower
By Blake Ellis @CNNMoney December 13, 2011: 6:51 PM ET
Far fewer homes have been sold over the past five years than previously estimated, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.
NAR said it plans to downwardly revise sales of previously-owned homes going back to 2007 during the release of its next existing home sales report on Dec. 21.
While NAR hasn’t revealed exactly how big the revision to home sales will be, the agency’s chief economist Lawrence Yun said the decrease will be “meaningful.”
———————————————————————————
Unemployment drops to 8.3 percent after hiring burst | AspenTimes …
Friday, February 3, 2012 … February, 3 2012 11:05 am … The unemployment rate is the lowest since February 2009, one month after President Barack Obama …
http://www.aspentimes.com/article/20120203/NEWS/120209947 - 63k - Cached - Similar
Record 1.2 Million People Fall Out Of Labor Force In One Month
Feb 3, 2012 … No, that’s not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 …
http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/13/real_estate/home_sales_revision/index.htm - 66k -
You guys are smart. But with all due respect it was smart people who created all of this and it has been smart people who have created failed program after failed program trying to fix it. Now I post about people in my “locale” because this is where I have access to records. Now as near as I can tell there are 2 million Deadbeats in Florida and about 8 million Deadbeats in the rest of the country, except for Colorado of course. Also as far as I can tell I am the only one who posts any public records of anyone who has treated “their” house as an ATM. So either this is all just happenib here or you guys are probably missing 8 million Deadbeats. And if this is all just happening in my “locale” , I don`t see why anyone from anywhere else reads this blog. As far as Deadbeat LLs it`s not just my 2, it`s all of them that piss me off as well as the DBs that complain $2k is an insult settlement for someone who has not made a mortgage payment in 5 years. I know where are the “real statistics”, well if anyone finds the “real statistics” besides in my local county records which have to be looked up case by case, let me know. Because I don`t believe any of the “real statistics” that are put out when it comes to this housing bubble.
But with all due respect it was smart people who created all of this
So it wasn’t stupid, greedy deadbeats after all. It was created and orchestrated by other, more intelligent people, who profited wildly from it. The deadbeats were their pawns.
You’re starting to get it, Jeff.
“more intelligent people, who profited wildly from it.”
That is where we disagree. I would say living for years rent free is profit. I would say taking huge sums of money out of your ATM, I mean home, living there free for years after that and not paying it back is profit. These are “real statistics” that I have posted over and over again. Now like I said yesterday as soon as the Deadbeats who cry victim are paying rent or a mortgage I will jump right in your bankster boat. I`m thinking…. I shot the bankster, but I did not shoot the deputy. (Clapton) I`ll write it for you alpha.
PS
I never called the Deadbeats stupid, just Deadbeats.
Bob Marley wrote that one, mon. That’s why it’s so good.
I meant to say…
I shot the bankster, but I did not shoot the Realtor. (Clapton)
But on second thought I had better not say either or I will end up on a watch list. If I`m not already on one.
We all are. DHS is watching us. They want affordable housing AND well paying jobs??!! Damn malcontents!!
Alpha
And now WE are the deadbeats pawn, we have to pay each month….and I’m angry
Excellent sources.
Good post.
Here’s your green shoots: Denver Post - Census figures show Colorado child poverty rising
“The number of Colorado children living in high-poverty areas has risen sharply, surpassing the rate of most other states. The latest Census figures show 92,000 Colorado children live in high-poverty areas, a 360 percent increase over the last decade. It’s the third largest increase in the nation.”
I suspect that Colorado is a lot more than leafy Denver suburbs, Boulder, Loveland, Fort Collins and ski slopes frequented by the well heeled.
.
The bulk of Colorado lives on the Front Range, between Ft. Collins and Pueblo. That said, income inequality is growing quickly in Colorado, so its true, depending on where you live what you see will vary. Life looks prosperous in Cherry Creek, Highlands Ranch, Westminster, Boulder and Fort Collins. All it takes, however, is a drive down Colfax to see how the other half lives.
Geez, speaking of which, I went to visit an auto shop known for modifying cars like my new one on Monday. They were very close to Colfax and Federal. I realize you can rent shop space cheap there, but I’m surprised BMW owners are willing to leave their cars there.
So if someone steals your leased BMW don’t you just go get another one?
I guess so. I think there are plenty of non-leased ones that people plan to own for a long time. When you put a bunch of time/money into modifying something into exactly what you want, it’s not trivial to switch to something new.
Child poverty ??
the state of being extremely poor….
And the real consequences will manifest themselves 20 years from now when another generational cycle begins…Hell, some of our political elite along with hypocritical religious policy does not want to pay for contraception but ignores the pain & suffering that comes with reckless procreation…
Not pay for contraception ?? I say, not only pay for the contraception, pay them to take it…As a society, we would be much farther ahead…Millions of young adults that will not be asking why they were even born…
“Not pay for contraception ??”
How much is a box of Trojans now anyway?
http://www.condomdepot.com/product/catalog.cfm/nid/200 - 34k
They cost a lot less than “reality condoms”.
75¢ a pop.
[/snarky 1-liner]
some of our political elite along with hypocritical religious policy does not want to pay for contraception but ignores the pain & suffering that comes with reckless procreation…
“Idiocracy” in real life… have to be careful though, as “eugenics” is right around the corner of thought.
78.7% of attendees at Denver and Aurora public schools receive free or reduced price lunch.
“I know how hard it is for you to put food on your family” - the Decider, 2000
78.7% of attendees at Denver and Aurora public schools receive free or reduced price lunch.
Quite a contrast from the gleaming schools in Highlands Ranch or Broomfield. In one world live the the cubicle dwelling brainiacs, in the other, the average brained Lucky Duckies.
But also normal at my son’s school in Boulder. Traditional yuppie Boulderites don’t have many kids, or they move to suburbia to raise them, apparently.
Traditional yuppie Boulderites don’t have many kids
LOL. I resemble this statement. Two weeks after my 2nd child was born, I made the appointment to get “fixed”. It wasn’t just about money though that was certainly part of it…
You can give them free condoms and pills but you can’t force them to take the things.
Not pay for contraception ?? I say, not only pay for the contraception, pay them to take it…As a society, we would be much farther ahead…Millions of young adults that will not be asking why they were even born…
In that much-reviled country known as Iran, women of reproductive age can get free contraception from the national government.
They also offer free vasectomies for men.
Force welfare recipents into class 25 hours a week to learn English….that should cut down the rate a lot…or else they can turn out like this:
http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/teens-shove-octogenarian-train-tracks-brooklyn-subway-station-article-1.1026681
Oh, those feckless teens!
How much is a box of Trojans now anyway ??
Well, the assumption there is the pitcher actually has one or would even use one…
The 2nd assumption is that if the pitcher does not have one then the catcher does if she can slow the pitcher down long enough to put on the glove…
The 3rd likely “fact” is neither the pitcher or the catcher has one most of the time and then oop’s…
So now, with the pitcher nowhere to be found or more likely you would not want to find him, the catcher has a decision to make…The majority of the time I suppose, the catcher ends up with a new teammate…And, if the catcher is poor, we all end up with a new teammate….
Then, when the poor teammate grows up to be a full fledge Pitcher or Catcher, the cycle of producing new teammates begins again….
Pay them to NOT have teammates….Better for the new teammates and better for society and in the end, the cycle is broken…
Wilson sister’s lyrics, “…the babies come with the scenery…” or something like that.
Chrissie Hynde, wasn’t it?
“Middle of the Road”
“In the middle of the road you see the darnedest things
Like fat guys driving ’round in jeeps through the city
Wearing big diamond rings and silk suits
Past corrugated tin shacks full up with kids
Oh man I don’t mean a Hampstead nursery
When you own a big chunk of the bloody third world
The babies just come with the scenery
Oh come on baby
Get in the road
Oh come on now
In the middle of the road, yeah”
I know the press call them “Colorado’s Children”, because their parents managed to get them across the border, but I suspect the largest percentage of them are really Mexicans.
The press always hides the truth with funny statistical shenanigans.
Are they really Colorado’s Children?
I suspect not. But then, since they are talking about Children, and not their parents, we should all be alarmed and willing to suffer any kind of re-distribution plan devised to “save the children”.
Janet Reno was going to Save the Children when they sent troops into Waco to surround a church and lay siege. No one was held accountable for the mayhem and murder. The government was trying to save the children.
Janet Reno took over 22 days after the Waco siege started. The siege was hardly her fault(and she wasn’t even 1st choice for AG).
33 church members were illegal aliens from the UK armed with guns.
Of course, now a days, there is no way the FBI would ever negotiate with a terrorist like David Koresh, much less illegal aliens armed with guns.
Thank you, Steve. Interesting factoid.
Here’s your green shoots: Denver Post - Census figures show Colorado child poverty rising
Aw, shoot!
Data (i.e. “statistics”) are manipulated constantly these days to achieve political and economic ends. If it’s not inflation numbers, it’s carbon emissions numbers. If it’s not unemployment numbers, it’s taxes. Ad nauseum.
A great many statistics are unreliable because the sources are not trustworthy. When there’s a great deal of money to be made in publishing biased data, it’s hardly surprising.
Then there’s the flagging respect for contractual law, but that’s another conversation.
They ALWAYS mistake the map for the terrain.
Billion dollar mistakes in their favor, but mistakes nonetheless.
Because I don`t believe any of the “real statistics” that are put out when it comes to this housing bubble.
Hasn’t anyone heard the old saying “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics”? Statistics can be made to support any number of arguements, and often are…
Per Polly’s comment in a previous thread post, “Everything is being done to prevent price discovery”. If that is the case, you can’t really believe any statistics coming from the government, financial industry, or associations with vested interests in real estate (home builders/realtors, etc.).
I trust local anecdotal evidence backed up by local data more than any of the “official” statistics because if there is one thing I’ve learned about Real Estate, it is very local. What does half of all foreclosures happening in FL, CA, and NV have to do with the price of desirable housing in MA? It doesn’t. My competition for housing is local (transplants from out of state not withstanding). That’s my .02…
I don’t know where you get statistics proving that the extra money that the “deadbeats” have in their pockets from not paying a mortgage and not paying rent is responsible for a significant chunk of the sales on Black Friday. But you can’t claim it is true without proving it. And hearing a few people in line at one or two stores say that they have plenty of money for Christmas because they are living for free isn’t enough.
I don’t have to tell you where to get the statistics. You are the one making the unsupported (so far) claim. You have the burden of proof.
My only real advice to Jeff is to find a job out of state, give his deadbeat landlord notice and get the H E double hockey sticks out of corrupt, 3rd world Florida. It should do wonders for his blood pressure.
Dr. Slim offering a second opinion: I agree. The BP will take a nosedive after he gives the deadbeat LL and FL the boot.
Draw a straight line from LA to Atlanta and everything below that line is corrupt.
Ok, let me put it another way… more corrupt than anywhere else with the exception of DC, NYC and Chicago.
Man, that’s a rough cut that includes about 80% of the US population. What’s left?
Baltimore: Nah
Boston: it’s ok
Nevada: nah
Seattle: the city itself is ok - not an attractive population though with the lumberjack look so popular among men and women.
Philly: it’s ok, except for its sports teams.
Nor Cal: nice to visit, but not worth living there
Rest of midwest: it’s ok
Colorado: the ski towns are fun, the rest is the midwest
Canada: nah
Seattle: the city itself is ok - not an attractive population though with the lumberjack look so popular among men and women.
LOL… I find there are plenty of attractive women here…
Maybe you prefer the highly-polished packaging look?
I prefer to see more skin and that more or less requires warm weather.
“Canada: nah”
You can’t give us a little more consideration than nah?
How about
Canada: the housing bubble hasn’t burst yet.
Seattle (and Portland too):
You mean the beardos?
Agreed. Someone moved here and assumed that’s what they should look like in the NW. Now that look is everywhere…
Overdog, what’s your take on Oil City?
“Man, that’s a rough cut that includes about 80% of the US population. ”
Yup.
the only oil city i’ve been to is Houston, which has warm water beaches (good) but less than beautiful water (meh), terrible sprawl (not optimal), decent prices (good), and bizarrely bad zoning (as in hey let’s put a Babys R Us in the same strip mall as a strip club) , so mostly a no thanks.
I agree. I told him to move out of the landlord’s house a few months ago as it would be much better for his mental attitude. I believe he said it was still the best deal he could get.
Out of Florida entirely is a good idea, but since we don’t know what he does (maybe an alligator wrestler?) I didn’t suggest that.
http://freelargephotos.com/?subject=Palm%20Beach%20County&title=Palm%20Beach%20County - 14k
Jupiter, FL Photo Album - All Pictures
Jupiter: Pasha the Golden Retriever in the golden sunrise trail · Jupiter: Jupiter’s Sunrise · Jupiter: Golden Retriever body surfing at Jupiter Dog Beach · Jupiter: …
http://www.city-data.com/album/album-Jupiter-Florida.html - 14k - Cached - Similar pages
My only real advice to In Colorado is to GET OUT OF COLORADO! If you go to a bar you will probably get beaten to death with a rock, they are beating homeless men and killing racoons with baseball bats and machetes. Not to mention your quarterback thanks Jesus evry time he ties his shoes and the Deadbeats there are so good at hiding you can`t even see them. For God`s sake GET OUT OF COLORADO!
Man killed in Colorado Springs bar melee - The Denver Post
Nov 26, 2011 … A 27-year-old man was beaten to death with a rock during a brawl involving as many as 10 people outside a Colorado Springs sports bar, …
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_19417294 - 166k - Cached - Similar pages
Homeless man dies after taking beating : News …
Sep 27, 2011 … COLORADO SPRINGS, COLO. — Colorado Springs Police officers said a homeless man who was beaten at a park Sept. 13 died Thursday at …
http://www.coloradoconnection.com/news/story.aspx?id=667970 - 75k - Cached - Similar
Raccoon beaten to death with baseball bat, machete
Nov 20, 2011 … A necropsy performed by a Colorado State University veterinarian … Witnesses who saw a group of men beating a raccoon to death on …
http://thepolicenews.net/default.aspx/act/newsletter.aspx/category/News+1-2/MenuGroup/Ho/NewsLetterID/30383/startrow/45.htm - 54k - Cached - Similar pages
In Colorado
I would not have done this if I had read the bottom of this blog first. I did not know that you had recently suffered the loss of a loved one. I am sorry.
“I don’t have to tell you where to get the statistics. You are the one making the unsupported (so far) claim. You have the burden of proof.”
This what what I posted yesterday that eventually led to your post that I put in above. This says “3.1 million people are essentially living rent-free by not paying their monthly mortgage payments.” I know 3.1 million is waaaaay low. This says “increased their purchasing power for other items by $65 billion at annual rates” If the 3.1 million not paying their mortgage is way low, so is the extra $65 billion in spending cash. But forget that, it says right here that people not paying their mortgage have an extra $65 billion to spend. I know there will be some other reason you guys will come up with why these people are not spending this money on Black Friday but the 2 names I got out of about 6 names in the BF articles checked out to be Deadbeats down here and I posted it. I have no mre proof than this that Deadbeats (like the ones I know and know of around here) take the money they don`t pay their mortgage with and spend it on other things. I can`t wait to hear the BS that they are stimulating the economy.
Comment by jeff saturday
2012-02-22 06:56:50
I believe I was ridiculed for suggesting that Black Friday numbers had a boost from Deadbeats. Now you can go ahead and ridicule me for suggesting that the 3.1 million people (who I affectionately refer to as DEADBEATS!) that are essentially living rent-free giving them purchasing power of $65 billion at annual rate numbers is also way low. Because that is what I am suggesting at least x 3 and probably more.
Why Renters Rule U.S. Housing Market (Part 1): A. Gary Shilling
By A. Gary Shilling Feb 21, 2012 7:01 PM ET
– Rent-Free Renters: Since 2006, 3.1 million people are essentially living rent-free by not paying their monthly mortgage payments. Assuming a monthly mortgage bill equivalent to the national average of $1,721 per person, these nonpayers have increased their purchasing power for other items by $65 billion at annual rates, or the equivalent of 5.6 percent of after-tax income.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-22/why-renters-rule-u-s-housing-market-part-1-a-gary-shilling.html -
Ok out the $65 billion that the 3.1 cough cough million people have as extra purchasing power none of it was spent on Black Friday because I have the burden of proof. No wonder Casey Anthony got away with killing her kid.
By A. Gary Shilling Feb 21, 2012 7:01 PM ET
Rent-Free Renters: Since 2006, 3.1 million people are essentially living rent-free by not paying their monthly mortgage payments. Assuming a monthly mortgage bill equivalent to the national average of $1,721 per person, these nonpayers have increased their purchasing power for other items by $65 billion at annual rates, or the equivalent of 5.6 percent of after-tax income.
Money being fungible, I don’t see how it would ever be possible to prove that a single dollar of Deadbeat no-mortgage/no-rent money was spent on Black Friday. Unless you got a Deadbeat to fess up to it.
“Unless you got a Deadbeat to fess up to it”
I busted 2 Deadbeats that allowed themselves to be intrviewed by reporters on Black Friday who used their names and town they were from. I looked up about 8 people who had been interviewed and 2 of them were Deadbeats according to the Palm Beach County records which were posted on this site that weekend with their names, their interviews and their LP notices.
Dumb question of the week: Will the recent speculative euphoria on Wall Street give way later this year to a major stock market meltdown, related to some combination of the following factors?
1) QE3 couldn’t get out of the starting block, due to the appearance that the economy is recovering just fine, and that inflation is heating up with the dollars presently afloat (got a gasoline-fueled vehicle?);
2) Realization that the BDI recently hit its lowest level since 1987, the year of the Black Monday (October 19, 1987) crash when U.S. stocks lost 20% in one day;
3) Recognition that the next-lowest reading on the BDI during the interim was in 2008, the year of a catastrophic Wall Street financial collapse;
4) Observation from the 2008 experience that presidential election years confer no special insurance against stock market swoons;
5) Dawning realization that the Eurozone recession is not contained;
6) Perception that the Greek debt crisis remains unresolved, despite their latest bailout;
7) Growing apprehension over incipient housing bubble collapses in places such as OZ, China and Canada, which appear so far unaffected by the popping of bubbles in the U.S., UK and numerous other countries across the global financial landscape.
I know the stock market always goes up and all, but still wonder if the Sword of Damocles hanging over bovines’ heads might make them a mite bit nervous from time to time?
I think everything is peachy until the USA Gov is forced to shrink deficits. Then, watch out below.
News from USA Today
Budget watchdog: Republicans would boost debt
by USA Today Feed on Feb. 23, 2012, under USA Today News
The national debt would increase, perhaps dramatically, under the tax and spending plans of the leading Republican presidential candidates, according to an independent budget watchdog group.
Leading the way with the most expensive plan is former House speaker Newt Gingrich, followed by former Pennsylvania sennator Rick Santorum and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, says the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Only Rep. Ron Paul of Texas would keep the national debt in check as a percentage of the economy, the group found, because he has proposed by far the largest spending cuts.
“As we enter the thick of the campaign season, no one can ignore the debt issue,” said the group’s president, Maya MacGuineas.
The organization assumes the worst in red ink just to get started — that former President George W. Bush’s tax cuts will remain in place, for instance, and that the next round of spending cuts promised by President Obama and Congress will be rescinded.
Even with those debt-increasing measures and others, its analysis found that Gingrich, Santorum and Romney would boost the debt even further, mostly to enact even broader tax cuts.
…
Not to mention the costly war with Iran they are all hell bent on having.
Another area in which RP is the clear winner.
How are they assuming that Bush’s tax cuts will continue. Obama will just allow them to expire at the end of 2012, especially if he loses. The new R president would have to shoehorn those bush tax cuts through Congress again; unlikely.
It is unlikely if the democrats keep control of the Senate. Then again, coming from a Republican House and heading to a Republican White House, the more conservative Democrats might be willing to sacrifice programs to keep tax cuts for the less well-compensated in their districts.
And then you have the purely political analysis, which is not my specialty.
Are you anticipating 60 Republicans? Or do you predict another Reconciliation Act?
I think that if the Republicans have the House and the White House that some of the more conservative Democrats in the Senate would vote with the Republicans. Not that it would protect them from getting a serious challenge with lots of money behind it at their next election, but I think they would do it anyway. And I think they would give in to avoid being blamed for a government shut down.
Assuming a President Romney, he is going to be way out in right field on fiscal stuff, because he will be running for re-election from the first day. The biggest influence of the Tea Party now is that all Republican politicians know they can face a serious primary battle. I bet even a sitting president wouldn’t be safe from it.
The GOP sure loves to spend other people money.
Unfortunately, many people no longer have a choice. Their 401/IRA general savings are invested in the stock market (by the fund managers) as it’s the only thing bringing in more than .0001% returns.
Remember, this is what the Repubs mean when talk about “privatizing” Social Security as well.
Just wait until price inflation really gets ugly and everyone flees to the stock market.
Wont interest rate go up with inflation? If I can get 8% with a CD, who need stock gambling?
If interest rates go up, US debt will spinning out of control.
Wont interest rate go up with inflation?
Steve has it right, interest rates made a 1-way trip down. We’re taking a play out of Japan’s book and will likely see ZIRP until we default…
as it’s the only thing bringing in more than .0001% returns.
They do have a choice, as you point out. They’re just choosing to take a risk rather than have the money retain it’s nominal value.
Personally, I’m largely in cash. It’s a choice. A choice I make just like those who are choosing to be invested in the market
Euro Economy to Contract as Italy, Spain Tumble: EU
By James G. Neuger - Feb 23, 2012 2:27 AM PT
Pedestrians pass a store sign which reads “Liquidation of summer stock,” along the Gran Via in Madrid, on Dec. 28, 2011. Photographer: Denis Doyle/Bloomberg
Europe’s economy will shrink in 2012, with Italy and Spain facing sudden crunches as they battle to escape the debt crisis, the European Commission said.
The 17-nation euro economy will contract 0.3 percent, the commission said, abandoning a November forecast of 0.5 percent growth. The downgrade was mainly due to projected contractions of 1.3 percent in Italy and 1 percent in Spain.
“The euro area has entered into a mild recession,” European Union Economic and Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn told reporters in Brussels today after releasing the forecasts. “Prospects have worsened and risks to the growth outlook do remain, but there are signs of stabilization.”
Two days after Greece clinched a second bailout, the forecasts showed an economy pockmarked by the two-year-old fiscal crisis and looked set to stiffen resistance in southern Europe to further doses of German-demanded austerity.
…
Smaller Greek Companies Forecast Revenue Drop as Crisis Worsens
By Natalie Weeks - Feb 23, 2012 3:01 AM PT
Small Greek businesses expect revenue to fall in the first half of this year as the economic environment deteriorates, a Marc SA poll showed.
Half of 1,200 enterprises surveyed said they foresee difficulties in the coming months and are at risk of shutting down, according the poll, which was posted on the website of the Small Businesses Institute at the Hellenic Confederation of Professionals, Craftsmen and Merchants. More than 77 percent of those questioned said they expect business prospects to worsen in the first half of 2012.
Greece’s government committed to additional austerity measures equal to about 7 percent of gross domestic product over three years to secure a second financing package from the European Union and International Monetary Fund.
Fifty-eight percent of the businesses questioned said that through July 2012 the national priority should be to stabilize the economy and keep the country in the euro area.
The new measures will lead small and medium-sized businesses to a “dead-end and the Greek economy to a deeper downturn,” the National Confederation of Hellenic Commerce, known as ESEE, said in an e-mailed statement today. Higher taxes and a 22 percent cut in the minimum wage will hurt consumption and the “serious risk” of default remains.
Retail sales in November declined 6.3 percent from a year earlier, according to Hellenic Statistical Authority data released on Jan. 31.
Sales are expected to fall further in the first six months of this year, according to 79 percent of those polled. Eighty percent of respondents expect the liquidity situation to worsen in the six-month period, while 74 percent said they drew on their personal deposits to cover operating costs.
…
Luckily the U.S. stock market is decoupled from Germany’s, or this stock market slide might be of concern to Wall Street traders.
Germany Stocks Slide for Third Day; Daimler, BMW Lead Decline in Frankfurt
By Konstantin Riffler - Feb 23, 2012 4:14 AM PT
German stocks fell for a third day, erasing earlier gains, as carmakers declined after the European Commission forecast the region’s economy will shrink this year.
…
Quantitative Easing Explained
Uploaded by malekanoms on Nov 11, 2010
What the Federal Reserve is up to, and how we got here.
by Omid Malekan
http://www.omidmalekan.com
This must be true because this guy is armed with “real statistics”.
Home supply signals ‘mini-recovery’
By Kimberly Miller
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 10:55 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 22, 2012
Home sales were down last month statewide and in Palm Beach County, but low inventory and higher pending purchases are leading a “mini-recovery” in real estate, according to the chief economist for the Florida Realtors.
John Tuccillo, who spoke Wednesday in Boynton Beach at the Greater Palm Beach Chapter of the Women’s Council of Realtors, said the supply of single-family homes countywide is nearly back to normal at 6.1 months - a 55 percent decrease from January 2011. A healthy market typically has between 5.5 and 6 months of inventory, Tuccillo said.
Statewide, the inventory of existing homes for sale was 6.4 months in January, down 42 percent from the same time in 2011.
“All the indicators of market pressure are moving in the direction of much less of a buyer’s market and more of a seller’s market,” Tuccillo said. “We’re still walking in a rut, but the floor of the rut has a positive slope and we will see better numbers in 2012.”
“Foreclosure sales are moving swiftly with ready homebuyers and investors competing in nearly all markets,” said National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/real-estate/home-supply-signals-mini-recovery-2193871.html -
ASIA NEWS
FEBRUARY 23, 2012, 4:25 A.M. ET
New Push for Reform in China
Influential Report to Warn of Economic Crisis Unless State-Run Firms Are Scaled Back
BY BOB DAVIS
BEIJING—An exclusive preview of an economic report on China, prepared by the World Bank and government insiders considered to have the ear of the nation’s leaders, offers a surprising prescription: China could face an economic crisis unless it implements deep reforms, including scaling back its vast state-owned enterprises and making them operate more like commercial firms.
“China 2030,” a report set to be released Monday by the bank and a Chinese government think tank, addresses some of China’s most politically sensitive economic issues, according to a half-dozen individuals involved in preparing and reviewing it.
…
22 February 2012
Dry Bulk Freight Carrier Suffers in Slump
Figures Demonstrate Fragility of the Market
Shipping News Feature
US – WORLDWIDE – Anyone who believes the parlous state of the Baltic Dry Index (dredging the ocean floor at 706 yesterday) is a passing phase may wish to reconsider following the release of financial data from New York headquartered dry bulk freight operator Genco Shipping and Trading Ltd. The effect of falling charter rates has crippled the group’s income in the last quarter with net income falling from $34.8 million in the comparable period last year to just $0.3 million to the end of 2011.
Genco’s voyage revenues decreased to $96.3 million for the three months ended 31st December 2011 versus $129.9 million for the three months ended 31st December 2010 mainly due to lower charter rates achieved by the majority of its vessels and partially offset by the increase in the size of the company’s fleet. In 2010 the final quarter rates for average daily time charter equivalent (TCE) was $24,303 against $16,805 per day a year later.
At the same time total operating expenses rose by $2.6 million to $73.2 million the increase being down to the operation of a larger fleet and higher crew related expenses, partially offset by lower expenses related to stores and supplies and lube consumption for the fourth quarter of 2011 versus the same period in 2010.
…
Baltic Dry Index plunges to 20-year low in Feb
Amit Mitra
Hyderabad, Feb. 8:
So far in the New Year, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which tracks shipping rates across key routes, has undergone a free fall, hitting a nearly 20-year low, even below the mark that was witnessed during the worst of the post-Lehman crisis in 2008. Shipping companies fear that the fall may take some more time to be arrested, as shippers globally adopt a wait-and-watch policy before going in for fresh bookings.
Oversupply of vessels is another factor aiding the fall of index, which is keeping ship owners a worried lot.
Below 600 levels
For the first time in the last about two decades, the BDI plumbed to below 600 levels, touching the lowest of 651 on February 2, below the 663 mark that the index had touched during the post-Lehman crisis in December 2008.
…
How is 651 below 600?
Perhaps it’s a bit like how real estate always goes up, even when prices are falling.
Your forgetting the exchange rate.
shipping rates across key routes, has undergone a free fall, hitting a nearly 20-year low ??
That must mean something…Sure is being ignored by our markets…So s this a reflection of a world economy in contraction and the USA is decoupled from it at least for the time being ??
“Sure is being ignored by our markets…”
What I would like to better understand is whether and what is the connection between the BDI and the U.S. stock market. Was it merely coincidence that other deep troughs in the BDI occurred in years (1987, 2008) when the U.S. stock market entered the bear’s lair?
Obviously, a falling BDI corresponds to a rising stock market! Everything that has happened in our world for the past couple of years corresponds to a rising stock market.
It means that our economy is based on the shipment of electrons. And you don’t ship electrons by sea vessel.
Darn those electrons!
MarketBeat
WSJ.com’s inside look at the markets
February 2, 2012, 12:56 PM
Baltic Dry’s Tumble Dims Copper’s Outlook
By Tatyana Shumsky
The spectacular collapse in the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks the cost of shipping bulk freight, gives copper traders something to worry about, says Country Hedging’s Sterling Smith.
The index is a proxy for moving goods around the globe and the now-30-session decline appears to indicate global commerce is stalling.
It fell below its post-crisis low Wednesday “and that’s an indication that things are inherently not moving, and that is intrinsically bad for copper,” Smith says. Comex March copper is down 1.7% at $3.7770/pound.
Meanwhile, it’s hard to see an end in sight for the Baltic Dry’s precipitous plunge. From WSJ:
A good overview of the housing market, single-family and multi-family, predicting a further 20 percent decline in for-sale housing prices over five years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-23/why-renters-rule-u-s-housing-market-part-2-a-gary-shilling.html
What did he miss? The possibility of creating new apartments for very little money by subdividing oversized homes. He did mention doubling up as a possibility; subdivision is a way of doubling up that affords more privacy and is thus more sustainable.
Wouldn’t that require changes to zoning laws in many places to create multifamily residences out of single family? I’m not sure that’s really gonna fly in too many places where there is a vested interest at keeping the status quo. Extend, pretend, and hope for a turnaround is an awfully enticing model.
“Wouldn’t that require changes to zoning laws in many places to create multifamily residences out of single family? I’m not sure that’s really gonna fly in too many places where there is a vested interest at keeping the status quo.”
That’s going to be a nasty little battle in suburbia between desperate homeowners and speculators, and desperate towns.
What may not be legal may happen illegally.
by subdividing oversized homes ??
It will likely be a zoning and land use policy problem…If you allowed it, what do you say to the people who thought they bought into a single family neighborhood..What about the lenders that loaned on a single family owner-occupied house…
How about “free market?”
Unless the courts really allowed crackdowns, including guilty until proven innocent, this stuff is hard to prove. From the outside, how can one tell the difference between people living together in a house and a house subdivided into apartments?
In NYC, the building department bases it on whether or not there are doors that can lock dividing the building.
Zoning regulations try to get around this with definitions of a “family,” but those are hard to prove and enforce too. Not to mention the possiblity of local politics and bribery taking over. All you need is a surplus of politically active free marketeers over politically active snobs, and things can change fast.
Bottom line, when you have people with the resources to fight things enforcing these sorts of rules is tough. Generally only politically unpopular people get rules forced against them.
Electric meters are a dead give a way.
Con Ed will not install meters without a Certif of Occupancy….so any apartments with the electric included is almost always illegal.
And splitting the utility bills IS illegal in NYC….
house and a house subdivided into apartments ??
Separate entrance would be one…Two kitchens would be another…But your suggestion is how could it be enforced…Probably can’t be although if it started to adversely effect/infect a neighborhood, the neighbors as a group could go a legal route putting pressure on the municipality…
Electric meters are a dead give a way ??
Easy way around this…Sub-Panel on the inside pulled off the main panel outside…
A good overview of the housing market, single-family and multi-family, predicting a further 20 percent decline in for-sale housing prices over five years.
I was very interested in the rental metrics quoted: i.e. in previous years, 15X (annual) rents was justified because investors assumed inflation (and thus rising incomes?) would boost returns. The assumption now is that this metric could push below 10X rents. Wonder how this will play out with inflation…
Big wildcard. They are trying to create some inflation. Some predict hyperinflation getting out of control, others a Japan style pushing on a string.
No one thinks the Fed can actually hit the target, except those investing in 10 year Treasuries and TIPS, who put the expected 10 year inflation rate right where the fed wants it.
We has a bubble in the late 1980s in the Northeast and the Coasts, and a bust in the early 1990s, that was just as large as this one. It hurt, but a significant share of the real dowside was in the form of inflation not nominal losses. Not this time so far.
that was just as large as this one.
I disagree; I don’t think it was anywhere near as large as this one.
What do you base that statement on??
Case-Shiller makes the previous boom look like hardly a bump compared to this time around.
You are looking at national data. The 1980s boom and 1990s bust involved real price increases and declines that were just as large, but that occurred in fewer places. I the New York area and New England the two bubbles were equivalent.
The dry bulk shipping market will come back in 2013 — around the time some of the serial bottom callers predict U.S. housing will come back. Both markets similarly face the issue of epic, credit-fueled supply gluts. Given a shadow inventory of 2,077 dry-bulk vessels at anchor, I’m willing to guess global shipping costs may remain low for “longer than expected.”
Commodity Shipping Costs Fall to Quarter-Century Low on Glut
February 02, 2012, 1:06 AM EST
By Michelle Wiese Bockmann
(Updates with vessel speeds in 12th paragraph.)
Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) — Commodity shipping costs slumped to the lowest in a quarter century as a glut of new carriers overwhelmed demand at a time of slowing global economic growth.
…
“The biggest problem is that the fleet is continuing to expand like there’s no tomorrow,” said Sverre Svenning, director of research at Fearnley Consultants AS, a unit of Oslo- based shipbroker Astrup Fearnley. “We’ve seen that the imbalance between demand and supply has just kept increasing.”
The fleet of dry-bulk commodity carriers will expand 14 percent this year, compared with a 3 percent gain in seaborne volumes of minerals and grains, according to Clarkson. Yards delivered 146 dry-bulk carriers last month, an all-time high, Svenning said. The IMF cut its 2012 forecast for global economic growth on Jan. 24 to 3.3 percent from 4 percent.
Charter Costs
The global fleet of Capesizes expanded 56 percent since the end of 2008 and orders at ship yards are equal to 26 percent of existing capacity, according to data from Redhill, England-based IHS Fairplay. Some ships were ordered in 2008 when daily rates reached $234,000. Charter costs were priced at $5,327 today, Baltic Exchange data show.
Owners are idling vessels rather than accepting current rates and Australia, the biggest iron-ore exporter, is “awash with ships waiting to load,” the Baltic Exchange said in a report to members yesterday.
“I can’t see much happening until March or April 2013,” said Derek Prentis, an 86-year-old shipbroker and consultant who is the Baltic Exchange’s longest-serving member.
Pure Play
Eight of the 14 companies in the Bloomberg Pure Play Dry Bulk Shipping Index will report lower profit or losses in 2012, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. The gauge slumped 33 percent in the past 12 months, compared with a 5.9 percent drop in the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities.
Returns for three of the four ship types in the index are too low to cover operating costs, and they’re below zero on two of 29 dry-bulk routes, data from the exchange and accounting firm Moore Stephens International LLP show. Capesize and Panamax ships are earning 30 percent and 38 percent, respectively, of the amounts Pareto Securities ASA, an Oslo-based investment bank, says they need to break even.
“We are in the third year of record vessel deliveries,” said Jeffrey Landsberg, president of Commodore Research, a New York-based shipping consultant. “Combined with the Chinese steel market being weak, that’s why freight rates are as low as they are.”
Vessels are slowing speeds and dropping anchor to better manage the oversupply. Capesize vessel speeds averaged 9.24 knots in the week ended Jan. 29, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the slowest since records started in May 2008.
There are 2,077 dry-bulk vessels at anchor, from a record fleet of 7,933, according to the data. That includes 310 Capesize ships anchored from the fleet of 1,203, nine fewer than the record 318 on Jan. 19, the data show. The overall dry-bulk fleet’s average weekly speed of 8.15 knots for the week ended Jan. 29 is the slowest since at least May 2008, the data show.
Panamaxes, the largest vessels to navigate the Panama Canal, dropped 4.2 percent to a three-year low of $5,515. Supramax vessels declined 2.8 percent to $6,657 and Handysizes, the smallest ships in the index, slid 2.4 percent to $5,853.
My God man! Their building ships the way we used to build houses!
This economist is a worry-wart after my own heart!
The oil and gas conundrum
Commentary: Oil prices could derail the U.S. recovery
Irwin Kellner
February 21, 2012|Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) — When it comes to prices of oil and gasoline, the law of supply and demand does not seem to apply.
As I am sure everyone knows by now, crude oil prices are skyrocketing. Since last September alone, the price of a barrel of oil consumed in the United States has soared by a thumping 34%.
As a consequence, prices of such petroleum-based products as heating oil and gasoline have jumped sharply in recent months, with industry sources predicting that gasoline prices may surpass their previous peaks within the next few months — well before the driving season is in full swing.
Not surprisingly, these increases are threatening the nascent recovery just when it appeared to be gathering steam. To many, this is déjà vu all over again.
Two years ago, the recovery slowed because of a combination of Europe’s debt crisis, the waning effects of the previous year’s stimulus and weakness in the housing market.
Last year around this time, the economy got the wind knocked out of it by three unexpected developments: the harsh winter, turmoil in the Middle East and the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. And while housing remained problematic, Europe’s debt problems morphed into a crisis of confidence in the euro.
Now, besides the lingering effects of housing and the euro, the recovery appears to be once again threatened by a jump in oil prices. This is particularly ironic, since supplies are up while demand is down.
…
Half of this country’s workforce makes less than $500/week. How many of those Lucky Duckies paying $4-5/gallon for gas will be waiting 45 minutes for tables at Applebee’s, buying new $30,000+ vehicles, or participating in the “pent-up” demand for housing?
This must be what the post-souper bowl “recovery” looks like
Not to worry. Our Chief will simply tap our reserves to keep prices down.
Meanwhile, said Chief puts the kabash on pipelines, with Canada now selling to China. Good strategy, there, Chief. Way to ensure $5 gas and even fewer new jobs.
Can you explain to me how the location of the pipeline somehow influences supply, demand, or the price of oil and gasoline in a global market where every drop produced is consumed somewhere?
No, no he can’t explain that.
Oil is sold cheaper in Canada because it’s hard to move it to the refinery. Lots of refineries on the Gulf coast.
What difference would that pipeline really make on global prices? Next to none I would guess. If they can load that oil into a tanker and ship it to Shanghai, why can’t they ship it to any port in the USA?
Stop derailing the talking points, please.
If they can load that oil into a tanker and ship it to Shanghai, why can’t they ship it to any port in the USA ??
Well they can of course so there is obviously something else in play…Who will benefit by the land leases for the pipe line ?? How much do the states get to allow the crossing ?? Who is going to build it ??
Listening to the CBC, there seems to be increasing pushback from the residents of BC allowing the pipeline to cross their province unfettered. I do no think this the westward pipeline is nearly a done deal yet. This is just a sshot across the bow to the those tree hugging commie Nebraska farmers.
I am still trying to figure out which port in Alberta they will use to load tankers.
Geography is not strong with this group.
I am still trying to figure out which port in Alberta they will use to load tankers ??
How about Prince Rupert ??
Geography is not strong with this group ??
Maybe so, but I am a “expert” @ Google Maps…:)
1,285km from Alberta to Prince Rupert
4,109km from Alberta to Houston Texas…
How do you get from Alberta to Prince Rupert? Truck? Rail?
Prince Rupert to Houston is a very long trip as the big tankers cannot use the Panama Canal and must transit via Tierra Del Fuego(that’s at the tip of S. America on Google maps). Of course, global warming could fully open up the Northwest passage soon.
Good for you Dave! Next google “Kootenays”.
Let’s see…there’s ongoing verbal threats to freighters and oil passage in the Middle East. There’s ongoing strife in places like Nigeria. There’s Venezuela, King of the Free Market.
Our producers have sent production off U.S. shores to Brazil. We could be drilling our own here to much greater extent, thereby decreasing cost, but no.
The biggest user of oil/gas now is going to tap into its reserves yet again, apparently. Meanwhile, oil and gas being pulled in Canada is being shipped overseas. They could send what they produce here, more efficiently to the largest consumer on the planet, but no. If you haven’t noticed, Canadians aren’t waiting for us to get our mamby pamby sh*t together.
So here in the USA, our defacto policy is to deliberately hamper production and deliberately hamper evolution of more efficient energy supply chains. Brilliant. Crony capitalism at its best.
Of course none of this influences cost at the pump. None of it does.
Hate to tell you this, but J6P won’t see ANY savings/benefit from a new pipeline, other than a few bulldozer, welder and truck driver jobs for a few years. And it won’t be the number of jobs advertised either. Try 25% of the number advertised.
Any cost reductions/efficiencies achieved by a new pipeline will go straight into the banksters/oil companies bank accounts. If you believe otherwise, you are smoking crack.
It’s smart to keep our oil in the ground and use up other peoples first.
if the USA increases production, the Saudis cut back. Price always stays high and the supply is running out. Time for plan B.
YES WE CAN! Can and will, all the way until 2017, so get used to it
thanks a lot goon…you just sabotaged my American dream I gezz Im a gonna liva inna my moms basement….. after NovembaHHHHma
The Financial Times dot com
February 15, 2012 5:13 pm
China anticipates Fed quantitative easing
By Michael Mackenzie in New York
China was a large seller of US Treasuries in December but sought higher-yielding mortgage securities amid expectations of more policy easing by the Federal Reserve.
Treasury flows were dominated by China selling $32bn in bonds, dropping its overall holdings to $1.1tn and extending a steady decline from July’s peak of $1.173tn, according to official data released on Wednesday.
The UK, a financial centre seen as a proxy for Chinese flows, experienced a drop in Treasury holdings to $415bn from $426bn. Hong Kong’s appetite for Treasuries rose to $112bn from $105bn.
China’s selling of Treasuries was accompanied by the purchase of $9.5bn in US mortgage debt, a sign that analysts said reflected expectations that the Fed would undertake another round of quantitative easing in coming months.
A third round of QE, or QE3, is expected to target the purchase of mortgages to drive home loan borrowing costs lower.
“The only real buying of US fixed income assets were primarily in Agency bonds, suggesting that overseas investors were setting up for an upcoming QE3 announcement,” said George Goncalves, head of interest rate strategy at Nomura Securities.
…
Feb. 23, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EST
Housing takes another step out of the cellar
Commentary: Supply will rise as more homes go on the market
By Kathleen Madigan of Dow Jones Newswires
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Housing looks to be climbing out of the sub-basement, according to data released Wednesday, but it’s a long way from heading up the stairs to expansion.
Existing home sales increased 4.3% to an annual rate of 4.57 million in January. But the gain came only because the National Association of Realtors sharply lowered December sales to 4.38 million. If December sales had stayed at their original 4.61 million, January sales would have been down slightly. Read more about sales of existing homes.
Even so, the home sales report joins other data that point to a stabilization in housing. The most positive sign was the reduction in excess supply of homes for sale. Read “S&P sees foreclosure inventory improving.”
According to the Realtors, 2.31 million homes were on the market at the end of January, the lowest number since March 2005. At the current sales pace, that represents a 6.1 months’ supply of inventory, a healthy rate and half the months’ supply seen during housing’s worst days.
It is too soon to declare victory over the excesses in the real estate market, however. That’s because millions of homes — owned by distressed owners or by banks — are just waiting to be put on sale.
…
“Existing home sales increased 4.3% to an annual rate of 4.57 million in January. But the gain came only because the National Association of Realtors sharply lowered December sales to 4.38 million. If December sales had stayed at their original 4.61 million, January sales would have been down slightly.”
OK which were the “real statistics”? The sharply lowered statistics from December or the statistics that say home sales increased 4.3% in January? I guess I don`t have to worry about it I get plenty of meat at home.
Real tomato ketchup Eddie? ….oh, nothing but the best. …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkExpbnjsX8 - 130k -
OK which were the “real statistics”?
I can appreciate the difficulty in finding “hard” numbers. But localized anecdotal observations are a poor substitute. While you see tons of shadow inventory and “deadbeats” galore in your neck of the woods, there are bidding wars in select Denver neighnorhoods. Neither is representative of the overall market.
Select neighborhoods where?
I have heard stories about bidding wars in Broomfield, Cherry Creek, Highlands Ranch, etc. My in-laws had NO trouble quickly selling their townhouse in Broomfield. It sold for 280K.
Aurora and anywhere along Colfax? Not so much.
And this gets to why anecdotal information can’t be extrapolated. In some parts of metro Denver the market is a disaster and if you live there, that’s what you will see: falling prices, empty houses and few sales.
If you live in yuppie Highlands Ranch you would see a very different landscape. And this is in a single metro area.
Job and rent statistics in DC will say more about DC housing than any housing statistics from Vegas or Sarasota.
Neither is representative of the overall market.
Right, which is kind of my point… I don’t buy or sell a house in a vacuum nor do I buy “nation-wide median priced” houses. I buy and sell based on the local supply and demand and the factors that may impact that.
“But the gain came only because the National Association of Realtors sharply lowered December sales to 4.38 million.”
Shouldn’t that ‘gain’ be properly referred to as a Realtor’s lie?
Mumbo jumbo.
How quickly we forget that housing numbers for what - the past four years? - were revised heavily downward some 2-3 mon ths ago.
More b.s. from the NAR crowd.
Fraudulent statistics do not make for a strong economy or a sense of confidence among the masses.
Lies, obfuscations and lies. And the powers that be wonder why their glorious plans and edicts aren’t working.
There was a segment on the news the other night (last night?) about manufacturing returning to the US from China. What jumped out at me was the statement that US workers are three times as productive as Chinese workers. Really? Where did this come from, all of a sudden? I’m not disputing it, I believe it’s true, but after a number of years of hearing how slothful and greedy American workers are, this is sort of an about face, no?
we just need to work harder to pay our fair share.
The empty factories in China were interesting to see.
Empty factories, empty apartment buildings, empty office buildings, empty cities. What a country.
I recall seeing a documentary about a giant shopping mall that was a ghost town. Almost no tenants and even fewer shoppers. Yet it had hundreds upon hundreds of employees.
They make our shadow inventory schemers look like amateurs.
If I recall correctly, much of the segment was taped in Texas, some in Detroit. American citizens were shown applying for these factory jobs, filling out forms with hopeful looks on their faces. Anglo and Afro-American faces. Forgive me for being a cynic, but I wondered if it wasn’t carefully staged somehow, and if, a year or so down the road, one goes to that Texas facility, they’d find those Anglo and Afro-American faces supplanted by illegal mestizo faces with a Spanish speaking foreman.
I’ve been in the Texas factories. It’s both. About an equal number of Mexican and African Americans with pay averages of $10hr. (it was $14hr just 6 years ago)
All of it outsourced to temp agencies charging double the hourly paid rate so that the company shows its books as paying $20hr but without any bureaucracy overhead to have to support.
Clever, huh?
It’s a Lucky Ducky world!
It is for “white collar” Lucky Duckies too. Big Azz Mutual Fund Co in Cherry Creek, Colorado is hiring telephone customer service reps for $11.50/hour temp positions with NO benefits. Candidates with BA in business or related area preferred.
Hah! I just recently got a helluva eddimication on how all that works, too. Spoke to a fellow the other day who runs just such an outfit, in fact. He’s a third party contractor who hires telephone customer service reps to work at home on behalf of various companies. Pay varies on how they’re rated by the people they talk to. AND, training is on the worker’s dime. He was bragging about how he has 12 companies he works for. Of course, he didn’t give me the skinny on how much HE gets and how much he pays out exactly, but it sure was interesting. And creepy.
It is for “white collar” Lucky Duckies too.
Absolutely. A college degree guarantees next to nothing these days, other that being saddled with crushing student loan debt.
Unions aren’t just about pay, they are about making ground rules that everyone agrees to work buy.
Of course, if you like politics, nepotism, bribery, grab-assing and political influence deciding who gets promoted and who gets fired in your local government’s work force, you are going to hate unions.
Seems that we had a period in this country where all of these things were SOP. Didn’t work out too well, as I recall. I guess it’s another lesson some people are going to have to relearn.
Productivity is defined by value produced/hours worked.
A Chinese person working for $2 an hour, for 1 hour, to turn $275 worth of parts into a $300 wholesale tablet computer = $25 an hour productivity.
Someone in America working 1000 hours to develop an ap that will go onto 1 million tablets at $1 each = $1000 an hour productivity.
In short, shipping all the low wages jobs overseas, keeping the better paying jobs = higher productivity. (and high unemployment, dependence on unsustainable debt growth which aren’t factors in productivity)
It doesn’t mean that the American could turn those $275 worth of part into a $300 tablet in 20 minutes while someone in China needs an hour. It doesn’t mean that it is better to pay someone in America $15 when they could pay someone in China $2.
American workers have ALWAYS had the highest productivity in the world with a min lead over the last 30 years of 2.5.
We also have the LEAST amount of time off.
Yet we continue to believe that unions are bad when they only represent 12% of the workforce and that ANY extra time off means lazy and if you’re not making a decent living then you don’t deserve it… all driving a 70% consumer based economy.
You can’t fix our kind of stupid.
Commie talk!
Yet we continue to believe that unions are bad when they only represent 12% of the workforce ??
And of that 12%, what percentage of that is in some form of government job ?? I say maybe 50%….
Point being, if the union “stronghold” is in government jobs then is it really a stronghold at all ?? Unions in the private sector must compete for business so they must be both productive and competitive…Who does the government union compete with ??
I think that the point of a union is to get good pay and benfits for its members. It’s management’s job to make an organization “competitive”. That’s why they get paid those insane salaries, right?
Most of the 12% are police, fireman, teachers and postal workers.
And before anyone gets too excited about teachers, we have two in the family. Neither one is union nor has a pension coming.
Teachers in my neck of the woods are union, but new hire’s don’t get pensions, pay starts at 30K and tops out around 60K if you have an advanced degree.
In Colorado. You mean for 8 months of work, and not counting health and retirement benefits, correct?
Other than summer camp counselor and summer nanny/day care worker, what jobs do you think that teachers can do during the times they are not working? Maybe carnival barker or amusement park ride operator?
If your ability to accept other work is limited by the job you have, you have to get paid decently for doing it. If your job easily makes room for other paid work, you have an argument.
In Colorado. You mean for 8 months of work, and not counting health and retirement benefits, correct?
Contrary to popular myth, my sister and sister in law don’t get all of summer off. They do a lot of work in the summer, but not in the classroom.
As for “retirement benefits”, I will repeat what I said above: THEY DO NOT HAVE A PENSION PLAN.
I will also share this again. Three years ago I considered becoming a HS Math teacher, that is until I saw that I would have had to take a 66% pay cut.
“You mean for 8 months of work”
That’s roughly correct. Why do people in the private sector work 365 days a year?
Also, the contracts are typically 10mo., with pay spread over 12mos.
I’m glad I could help you sort out the numbers, “Math” guy.
Really, I would appreciate an average daily rate including health benefits, PTO, retirement benefits, and any other benefits or allowances including tax credits or loan forgiveness for teachers.
This would be for days actually worked. In my estimation, this would be 3 weeks Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec/Jan - 2 weeks, Feb, Mar - 1 week(Spring break), Apr, May, and 2 weeks of June. Minus about 10 federal and state holidays.
Calculating time off looks easier.
So basically July/Aug = 62 days = about 9 weeks plus 2 weeks winter = 11 plus 1 week spring = 12 “work weeks” off + 2 work weeks of paid holidays. = 52-14 weeks = 38 weeks of working days.
Compare this with private sector. = 52 weeks working - 2 weeks paid vacation (average) - 10 days federal/state holidays = 48 weeks working.
So take the 60k/year example 60k / 48wks/yr = 1250/wk salary private sector vs 60/38 = 1578/wk salary
This is for two people working public vs private 60k/yr
Simple math right there. 26.3% weekly work rate premium for same salary. (Ok maybe a bad choice of words.)
Now polly is right in that there is an opportunity cost for those 10 weeks of extra time off. So we can’t say that a 60k teacher salary is equal to a 75k salary for a regular working stiff. But again, I didn’t account for benefits of any kind, and even though *new* hires may not be getting *pensions*, the *average* teacher is, and they might be getting 401k’s or other compensation. And I know quite a few people making less than 30k right now who would jump at the chance to take a teaching job due to the pay and time off.
I’m confused, did you just discover that teacher have summers off?
Boom = teachers are dumb
Bust = I want that job!
Lol, man, lol…
Which way do you want this to go? Would you like teachers to work for 12 mos. at their daily rate, or would you like to make like the Swedes and take summers off, even in the private sector?
I’m cool with either, really — I don’t want you free market types to feel like only teachers have fun. We’ll party with anyone… oh wait, you have to work tomorrow.
or would you like to make like the Swedes and take summers off, even in the private sector?
My appreciation for my Swedish heritage has just grown by two sizes…
Hey, if you’re a union worker in the private sector, go for the gusto. Get as good a deal as you possibly can, I will never stand in your way.
But if you’re a union worker in government, and everything you grab for comes out of my pocket with the threat of prosecution if I don’t fork over, then …… bite me. OK?
Have you seen this?
http://www.halfhill.com/inflation.html
Plug in some realistic wage (or service/product) numbers and fiddle with the variables. (Options)
Be sure you are sitting down.
Ex: 12k a year in 1981 at the LEAST amount of official inflation shows you have to make 32k in 2012 just to stay even.
Using the highest UNOFFICIAL rate of inflation, you have to make 113K.
Using the middle amount (Medical inflation) you need to make 62K.
Now I’m not sticking up for government unions, but IMO, it’s not that they make to much money, it’s that the REST OF US are getting screwed and screwed hard.
I was a SINK, and now I’m part of a DINK household, and I still have no idea how most people do it with kids these days.
Government tax policy encouraging procreation helps. Not advocating it, just saying it is what it is.
“now I’m part of a DINK household, and I still have no idea how most people do it with kids these days.”
Depending on how certain variables play out, it is likely that I will need to borrow from Bank of Dad to partially cover daycare until my son starts VPK in September.
“I was a SINK, and now I’m part of a DINK household, and I still have no idea how most people do it with kids these days.”
I’m still a SINK, and I agree - no idea how people do it.
But I try to support my procreating friends with free babysitting. (Although not since I moved to KS.)
i’m with you on the government union crap. should never have been allowed. they are PUBLIC SERVANTS, and if they don’t want to serve with the pay we give them, send them down the road.
and, please don’t give me any of that crap about retaining good employees. we have some really bad government agencies, mostly due to really bad policies, but there are lots of useless employees, too.
but, i would say also, that i agree with you on the private sector, with one caveat: If you manage to fleece the company to an extent that it becomes bankrupt, it gets LIQUIDATED. period.
NO screwing the shareholders for your pension. It’s gone. done.
the way free enterprise works, is you either get a solution or you go to insolvency. The OWNERS get to say, that’s it. We’re closing the doors and the bankruptcy judge can divy up the assets. No more GM deals. NO more bank bailouts.
And best of all…….no more Federal Reserve (without any reserves or capital) System of fleecing Americans. END THE FED.
How can you fleece the shareholders on a bankrupt company? The shareholders are the owners. They get wiped out first. Only creditors (employees included) get anything out a bankrupt company.
sorry. Scratch shareholders. Insert Bondholders. Both got the shaft for the GM employees Union. x
Obama is trying to bring the jobs home. The Party of NO, is not doing anything.
They are NOT doing nothing.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/09/28/us-usa-democrats-offshore-idUSTRE68R40I20100928
They are voting AGAINST it.
That sounds like a bumper sticker: The party of NO.
Actually, they’ve PASSED a whole litany of legislation, the SENATE, controlled by the Democrats refused to pass a corresponding bill, i.e., “dead on arrival”. I think that makes them the party of NO.
But you go on believing this imbecile with nothing but campaign slogans for policy. See where it’s gotten us?
It won’t get any better.
The fraudster, with no real world experience in the Whitehouse needs to say YES to the legislation that the PEOPLE’s Branch, the HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES has put forth. That’s why they got put into office to say NO to the shenanigans of a fraudulent Executive.
Good on them, I says. Say no more often.
If another bailout gets suggested, say no even more often.
Tax question:
Can losses in your 401K be deducted as “gambling losses”?
That depends. Was it managed by American Indians?
No, not as far as I know.
(I sense a business opportunity……looks like I need to go pay a visit to the Potawatomies…………)
But I did pick investments that specifically do NOT have “preservation of capital” as a high priority.
If that’s not “gambling”, I don’t know what is.
Of course, with everything that’s gone on, letting the banksters have access to any of your money can be considered gambling.
No, since 401k’s are tax deferred accounts you never paid taxes on them to begin with. Contrast with a self managed brokerage account like Etrade. Since those are financed with your out-of-pocket monies that you HAVE paid taxes on, losses are deductible to the tune of about $3k I believe.
$3k per year against ordinary income. All of it is deductible against your future capital gains.
Why do people not understand this?
None of it is gambling losses.
I’m going to try it anyway. I’ll let you all know how it goes.
That, and my vasectomy………”tool maintenance”.
”tool maintenance”.
I believe that only applies to tools that you use in a trade or business.
Are you providing services with this tool you speak of?
“That, and my vasectomy………”tool maintenance”.”
Only if you are using that tool in a business. One that you realistically expect to make a profit.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Innovation/Horizons/2012/0223/Google-glasses-due-this-year-turn-seeing-into-searching
“Google is prepping a pair of augmented reality glasses, which would allow users to receive, via a data connection, real-time information on their surroundings. According to a new report in The New York Times, the glasses – or Google goggles, if you like – will hit shelves by the end of the year, and retail for somewhere between $250 and $600. (The Times describes the glasses as being priced like an unsubsidized smartphone.) “
I don’t get this. I can’t focus well enough to see the dirt on my glasses now. I don’t understand how I will be able to focus on web content that close. And do I really want to see ads for McDonalds every time I walk by one?
I am not a gadget guy, so this kind of thing doesn’t really appeal me at all. Then again, GOOG’s been wasting their Canadian Pharmacy money on lots of useless tools or hobbies for a while.
Then wait for the Cortex implant version.
Read Vernor Vinge’s book - Rainbows End.
Thanks! I’ve been trying to remember the name of that book!
Read it during my 3 books-a-week binge 2 years ago.
There’s also another one about a protagonist and super augmented reality who ends up stealing the one and only star ship ever made that was abandoned near Mercury, but it takes 2 or 3 books to get to that point.
Same author?
Are you talking about Frederick Pohl’s Gateway series?
AWESOME series!
Question for the masses:
Is anyone else seeing homes being “snapped up” (makes my skin crawl just typing that) by TRUSTS? I’ve been watching several homes in my preferred ‘hoods and recently 3 of them were bought by trusts. These weren’t low-end homes, either. All of them over $450k.
Am I on the right track to assume these are entities for whom low, low rates on other securities aren’t providing the income they once did so they are turning to real estate to rent out? I can’t believe the ROI would justify them as solid investments though.
Am I on the right track to assume these are entities for whom low, low rates on other securities aren’t providing the income they once did so they are turning to real estate to rent out? I can’t believe the ROI would justify them as solid investments though.
Methinks that they’re about to learn a painful lesson about the realities of landlording.
Perhaps even a painful lesson in holding depreciating assets. Trusts, meet Realities.
I qualify for food stamps due to a low income. But I have savings from selling my house at the peak. Can i hide the money offshore like Romney does and qualify for food stamps?
Easy workaround. Give the money away. There is a donation bar at the top of this page.
haha….
Can i hide the money offshore like Romney does and qualify for food stamps?
As George Carlin said in one of his stand ups: You aren’t a member of that club.
Which club? Food stamp or offshore banking. Both are accessible. But dont really want to be in either.
The S is really HTF in my life.
Got a call from the hospital in the town where my folks are. Mom recently fell and broke her left wrist and injured her hip. She’s in the hospital for care of the hip. I gather that surgery may be needed.
In the meantime, there’s my dad, who’s not too with it these days. I may have to go back and tend to him. And Mom.
So, if I’m not on the board for a while, don’t think I got mad and went away. I’m just dealing with family shhhhhhh…
Quite frankly, between all of you, me, and the fence post, I think that my folks should sell their house for what they can get for it and move into assisted living. The place is really getting away from them. I was shocked by how dirty the interior was when I was there over the Xmas holidays.
I’m also of the mind that they should sell off whatever they wouldn’t be able/want to take with them to an assisted living facility. Reason: They’ll need the money to pay for their care. So, if anyone has any recommendations for estate liquidators serving eastern PA, I’m all ears.
From what I’ve seen people wait way too long to move into assisted living. By the time they’re ready it’s no longer an option.
Sorry about the stress.
Thanks, Carl! Appreciate your good thoughts.
Or rent a room out to someone in trade for assistance. Assisted living is awful.
I know someone whose aunt did that very thing. She was in charge of finding reputable people to whom the rooms would be rented. It was a real PITA, to say the least.
I’m not sure I’m up for that sort of adventure.
Sometimes a higher quality of life takes work.
Who says you can trust the illegals workign in a assisted living home? There are horror stories of incompetent people handing out meds and getting it wrong. I hope my kids never send me to one.
My grandmother lived alone for years after my grandfather died. For a while she had someone living with her to help her. But she didn’t really like it and the arrangement ended. I think she lived alone for a while after that before gall bladder surgery forced her into a nursing home at 93. She got good care there and lived for another 10 years.
My other grandmother moved into an assisted living/nursing home in her later years and also got good care. She was not entirely happy there, but it had gotten to the point where my mother couldn’t care for her at home.
There are risks no matter which way you go. And some of the assisted living workers are wonderful people.
Because it is so easy to find someone you can trust to take care of your parents who is willing to do the work required in exchange for a room?
Sorry for your problems, Slim. If I had any contacts in PA, I’d let you know, but I’m afraid I haven’t got anything. Is there any way you can get them to consider moving closer to you? Supervising from far away is almost impossible and expensive to boot.
Is there any way you can get them to consider moving closer to you?
That was one of the reasons why I moved to AZ back in the 1980s. I figured that if I was here, my folks would want to retire here and get out of the cold and snow in PA.
Little did I know how much my folks wanted to stay in PA. Heck, they haven’t even been out here to visit since the 1990s.
Hate to say it, but I don’t think it will be too long before I’m burying them in PA.
OK, then a little (practical, not legal) advice. Find out if your mom has had your dad declared incompetent. If she hasn’t, find out if he meets the definition in PA. If he does, get it started. Your mom can have the control to start, but you need to make sure that you are a back up if she isn’t available. And other than just making sure the house is clean, you need to talk to your mom so you have account numbers and names and phone numbers for all the important stuff - bank accounts, lawyers, safety deposit boxes, insurance, pensions, doctors, etc. Make sure you have their SS numbers. Do they have cemetary plots or have they pre-purchased funeral services (where)? This stuff is much easier to put together when at least one person can help you.
I’m sorry your mom got hurt, but it might be the wake up call she needs to realize that she has to help you in case you have to take care of your dad without her. She probably has always assumed that he would go first because she has been taking care of him for a while.
Tell her, I wish her a speedy recovery.
I’m sorry your mom got hurt, but it might be the wake up call she needs to realize that she has to help you in case you have to take care of your dad without her. She probably has always assumed that he would go first because she has been taking care of him for a while.
You’re reading my mind — thank you!
Just keep reminding your mom that she doesn’t need anything special to take care of your dad’s financial matters because they are married, presumably with everything in joint accounts and all that. As a child you don’t get the same rights. It will scare her, but it is necessary. If they could put you on at least one bank account, that would be a big help since it would let you pay bills and things while arranging to get your dad someplace he can get the help he needs (if your mom goes first). And you need passwords for accounts if they do any of their financial stuff on-line.
It is a little overwhelming, but your mom is no dummy and from what you have said, she respects you (more important than love for this particular purpose). Recruit Aunt Jean(?) in Vermont for back up if you can.
Slim,
I moved back to Ny to help my mom and dad as they got older. Near, but not next door. After my dad died my mom moved to NJ! It was ironic to me but the best thing for her. She found a Progressive Care facility, really nice. She’s basically in a garden appartment and will move up so to speak as needed. She has neighbors similarly situated, but complains that they are all “old”.
Cleaning up the house kept for so many years by someone who couldn’t see well, or bend over much was a chore. So was downsizing. Some of the things could be sold, but most donated. Good luck friend.
Very sorry about all this family stress, Slim. Your ideas are very sound. The problem, of course, will be convincing your parents to take your advice. Best wishes. Remember to take care of yourself throughout it all.
An attorney friend from my growing up years just rang off. He was channeling your advice, Elanor.
As for taking care of myself, I’ve been brainstorming what a suitable self reward would be after all of this shhhh! is through. And that includes the passing of my folks. Hate to say it, but I don’t think that either one will be around much longer.
My reward: A trip to Australia. Airfare’s not exactly a bargain, but it’s doable.
So, HBB-ers Down Under, stay tuned. I’ll be coming your way one of these days.
Slim
I just wanted to chime in and send a cyber hug. I took the journey with my father’s Progressive Supranuclear Palsy (a rare from of Parkinsons) which mimics Lou Gehrig’s disease. Lipitor it is said to wake up the gene. I know the heartbreak of the journey you’re going through. Then as a widow, my mother broke her hip, and that was another journey, still in progress.
Do the best you can. Many senior centers have $10- or so 1/2 hr sessions with an Elder Attorney. It really helped to get affordable advice. Do the best you can. Don’t forget to take a few moments for yourself.
You’re a special lady, and I feel for you.
You’re where we are.
My in-laws actually moved to an 55 and over apartment in a place where stuff could be walked to, didn’t like it, and moved back to their house on the hill where it a 15 minute drive to the nearest just about anything.
Since then, two wrecked cars and a heart attack.
If there’s any good news from today, it’s from the hospital security. They’re the ones who have the keys to my dad’s car. Why? Because after he drove my mom to the hospital, with her telling him how to get there, he couldn’t remember how to get home.
And I should mention that he almost totaled his car a couple of years ago. He finally succeeded in doing that after he and Mom were t-boned by another driver running a light at an intersection where my folks were making a left turn.
Personally, I hope that security keeps those keys. And that they give them back to my mom, who stows them in a safe place.
Good luck. It can’t be easy. My 80yo dad lives in Kingston, PA and I realize some day I will get that dreaded phone call.
My mom passes away 3 weeks ago after a long battle with COPD. I can sympathize with what you’re going t hrough.
Thank you for the kind thoughts. And here are some sympathy vibes coming up to you in CO.
“My mom passes away 3 weeks ago after a long battle with COPD. I can sympathize with what you’re going t hrough.”
I am very sorry to hear that, may your memories bring you comfort.
My mom passes away 3 weeks ago after a long battle with COPD.
Ouch, that sounds tough, InCO; my sincere condolences.
COPD is not easy to watch…
Condolences In Colorado.
Wishing you the best as you deal with this, Slim. I expect to deal with this myself in a few years. Knock wood, my folks are still healthy. I know how quickly things can go south.
And it reminds me that I should make sure that my family knows where all of the paperwork is, in case something happens to me.
Colorado: Sincerest condolences.
Sincere condolences. Take care of yourself. Best to you!
My 72 y/o father still has primary responsibility for caring for my 92 y/o grandma. I don’t see how it can be all that much longer before my dad is going to be the one needing assistance, provided by me and my siblings.
Arizona Slim
Your Mom and Dad are lucky to have a kid like you. They must have done a good job as parents. Best of luck.
My best to you and your parents, Slim.
I’m in a similar sitch. I’ve realized for a few years now that one day soon I’m also going to get that call. I’m in OR, they’re in their late 70s in OH. One difference is that I have a sibling near them who I assume will one day move in with them. Still, part of my contingency plans involves the potential of me trekking back east at some point.
Take care.
Slim, sorry to hear about the turbulence. Only thing I can add would be to talk to an attorney with some experience in elder law. Plus look into something called “long term care insurance.”
Just so happens that I spent some time on the phone with a former neighbor who is an attorney. I asked him about a well-known elder law attorney in that town, and I’m glad I did. His advice: Don’t touch that lawyer with a 10-foot pole.
He said he’d be happy to recommend other, more reputable people.
And that’s what’s been really nice to experience amidst all this gloom. I’ve been wailing “Help!” all afternoon and you know what? The cavalry is riding to my rescue, that’s what! I can’t tell you how nice it’s been to experience so much kindness via the phone and the Internet.
Thanks, everyone! I really appreciate it.
Good luck, Slim!
Hope everything works out for the best.
Sim: One more item to consider, which might make the issue easier to manage - you aren’t the first to deal with these kinds of things, especially with an aging Greatest Generation and Boomer age cohort. In fact there are thousands if not millions who have have dealt with it. So there’s a great deal of experience out there with these kinds of issues. The key is to figure out where the information sources are and learn from them.
The humans are good at capturing and codifying their experiences and knowledge. There are probably books out there on the subject, AARP, other associations. Then, execute the actions you need to in order to achieve the outcome you want.
Very sorry to hear about the family issues, Slim!
Sorry to hear about your troubles Slim. Tey may not have centers like these in your part of the world, but here in Florida my children go to a daycare that is part of an assisted living facility.
The feed the ducks, sing songs, bake cookies, and read stories with their “grandfriends.” It’s adorable.
If you can find a place like this I recommend it — it really helps the elderly find peace in the cycle of life.
Yikes, Slim. Hang in there, okay? Really appreciate your contributions to the blog–especially the book recommendations. Stay strong, hon.
Without regulations, corporations will ALWAYS take shortcuts even if it kills people.
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/mom-launches-fight-enterprise-car-rental-company/story?id=15766920
A mother who lost her two daughters in the fiery crash of a rental car under safety recall has launched a petition drive calling on Enterprise, the nation’s largest rental car company, to drop its opposition to a law that would keep companies from renting out cars that had been recalled because of safety risks.
+1, but isn’t is ALL ABOUT THE MONEY?
Requiring rental car companies to pull vehicles from the fleet when a recall is issued will only lead to chaos.
For starters, nobody will have parts. See Toyota gas pedal recall.
Second, most recalls are for items that aren’t that serious.
There you have it. Corporations are murderers.
My new goal in life: cheap house.
May I suggest that this is the stupidest goal of all time?
Good goals include:
1. Show kids the wonders of the world.
2. Engage in wonderful art, music, theater.
3. Cook wonderful healthy meals daily for kids and spouse.
Bad goals:
1. Buy a turdy depreciating asset which requires non-stop fix-up.
But what do I know? I’m alone on this one.