Bits Bucket for February 29, 2012
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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If you notice that real estate prices keep going down, repeatedly defying expert predictions for a real estate bottom, and if you are also realistically worried the economy may face a double-dip recession at some point in the foreseeable future, especially given the recent punishing spike in gasoline prices, isn’t it perfectly rational for would-be home buyers to take a wait-and-see attitude to housing prices? Besides that, as Professor Shiller points out, many people still harbor an irrational cargo cult faith that home prices will soon “come back.” I personally wouldn’t buy until the masses generally agree that real estate is a terrible investment; we’re not there yet.
Homebuyers in `Wait-and-See’ Mode Now, Shiller Says
Feb. 28, 2012 - Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) — Robert Shiller and Karl Case, co-creators of the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 U.S. cities, talks about the housing market and home prices. The S&P/Case-Shiller index fell 4 percent in December, more than forecast, to the lowest level since the housing crisis began in mid-2006. Shiller and Case speak with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Radio’s “Surveillance.” (Source: Bloomberg) (Bloomberg)
“Besides that, as Professor Shiller points out, many people still harbor an irrational cargo cult faith…”
For clarification, Shiller did not say anything about cargo cults; his comments merely suggested that people expect home prices to come back, which I interpreted as a cargo-cult faith that the Housing Bubble will soon return.
From the Denver Post: Owners slash price tags on condos above Denver Ritz-Carlton
“Denver developers Tim Craft and Heath DeLay, who paid $13 million for the 24 condos in June, are following the lead of the Private Residences at The Four Seasons, which last month slashed prices on 30 units an average of 45 percent in an effort to generate renewed interest in the property.
“We’re offering luxury at investment pricing,” said Heather Faircloth of Kentwood City Properties, who is marketing the project at the Ritz.
Only one of the project’s 25 units sold before the remaining condos were foreclosed on in November 2009.
Prices on the discounted units start at $430,000 for a 1 bedroom, 1.5-bath condo. A four-bedroom, 4.5 bedroom penthouse is priced at $2.3 million, but would be discounted if it is among the first five to seven units to sell.”
” isn’t it perfectly rational for would-be home buyers to take a wait-and-see attitude to housing prices? ”
True but everyone is not rational. I am a buyer at this time. I hope to close by Wednesday next. Sold out in Bakersfield in July of 2004 and have been renting since (7yrs 8 mo.).Have been renting since moving to Salinas for $1600+/mo.. Was very happy renting and was not going to buy until the pricing was right for the area and the future home met as many of my preset criteria as possible. Will my costs be the same, no. PI will be a wash, insurance will cost me $50/mo. more but CA taxes are insane and I will have maintenance costs. My rental neighborhood has changed with the housing bust. As more houses have come back onto the market they are being filled with section 8 type families. We now have a lot of kids unattended playing basketball (three portable hoops in a half block) in the street who don’t want to step aside for neighborhood cars. You have to be careful when backing out of your driveway not to run over one of the smaller ones on plastic trikes. You have garage doors open with loud music, drinking and tv sports parties. Graffiti is picking up.
So, is that why I’m moving? No. I am moving because my wife and I after eight years of trying to decide where to make our home for life have decided that we really love what the Salinas area has to offer for us and our way of life. We didn’t really plan to buy at this time but did start looking occasionally at the start of this year planning to start searching in earnest in October. There were limited houses because are search was limited to one story houses, area specific, built between 1950 and 1998, and with some land. We found all that with a price that we can live with even when the market goes down further. Our goal is to remain in this house until we are no longer able to because of health reasons.
salinasron-
Contrats on your home purchase. Many healthy happy years in your new place.
Thank you. Wishing everyone here that you also find what you are looking for.
x3 cheers Mr. Salinasron!
Here’s wishin’ you & yours the best of health and blessed with good neighbor folks.
Sincerely, Hwy50
Thanks Hwy-
You’ve got that right. The neighbors can make or break your life experience in a home.
Is your employment stable in that area?
Yes it is. But I don’t have a crystal ball on the 20 year future of the dollar or economy.
Employment is my first consideration.
Salinasron
I don’t know your age bracket, but the way we see it, we have fewer years in front of us than behind us. We want to live out the remaining years in a one-story home full of happy memories.
I’m so happy for you two. May your holidays there by Norman Rockwell perfect.
We’re next, I hope.
You and I are in the same boat. That is why when we found this house that filled 95 percent of our wish list we opted to purchase. I will be more specific in a future post after we hav keys in hand.
I don’t know your age bracket, but the way we see it, we have fewer years in front of us than behind us. We want to live out the remaining years in a one-story home full of happy memories.
Good luck!
At a certain point, buying a house is not just about the $$, but about finding a stable place you can call home.
We are in the same boat, and taking our time until we find the place we can envision living in for 20 years.
Salinasron
You evidently bought the right home, and I am tickled for you guys. I can’t wait for you to share the story.
sfrenter
How wise you are. When a home says “welcome home”, you have found it. It’s not the size or amenities, it’s that “something”. It all works, or at least most of it.
Man, you guys and your “stability”.
If the banksters and the government wanted us to have stability, they would have issued it.
Stability? As in a job in the same location for the same employer lasting more than 2 years? Unlikely for many…
That’s right. Contract employment isn’t conducive to planting roots in any one area.
“True but everyone is not rational. I am a buyer at this time.”
You sound pretty rational to me. Good luck!
We found all that with a price that we can live with even when the market goes down further.
Wow, it sure sounds like you did your homework, ron. Those are the right reasons to buy.
I hope that you are very happy with and happy in your new place!
BTW, salinasron: was your place REO, short-sale, or “normal” sale? Any details worth sharing?
I’ll post more after we have keys in hand. It was a normal sale but may be of interest to you.
I look forward to it!
Yay! Salinas Ron. 7 years 8 mos is sure a long time and at some point we will all cry uncle. Congrats on your find. I hope you and yours are very happy there.
I am moving because my wife and I after eight years of trying to decide where to make our home for life have decided that we really love what the Salinas area has to offer for us and our way of life.
God bless
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/areas-country-show-growth-fed-190300346.html
bottoms in ?
Have been renting since moving to Salinas for $1600+/mo…
Wow! Salinas must be all grow’d up these days. What do you figure your rental’s appraised value was?
You seem pretty rational to me, salinasron. Good luck!
Ron,
Congratulations! I really hope this one works out for you two and makes for many wonderful memories over many wonderful years.
“I personally wouldn’t buy until the masses generally agree that real estate is a terrible investment; we’re not there yet”
Exactly! and I’ve never seen anything close to that in my area. At worst they believe they rode out a down cycle and now we’re slowly on the mend. I think it’s going to take a lot to kill that sucker mentality after the previous save.
Now I am seeing the mentality that a 4000+ sq foot home is for suckers. Yup, inventory is burgeoning nicely in those niches. Getting bigger every day.
Big banks, hedge funds ready to buy thousands of foreclosed houses in “bulk buying” for 5-10 cents on the dollar. Who wins here? This wasn’t plan this way was it?
This is exactly what happened when Resolution Trust Corp. (a government entity) sold all the properties owned by failed S&L’s in the 1980’s.
thousands of homes is “drop in the bucket”. There are millions of houses that need liquidated. Millions of homes for 10 cents on the dollar is $ hundreds of billions in losses that Fannie and Freddie can’t take without lots and lots more bailouts, which won’t happen.
They will be liquidated for as close to market as possible, while avoiding the use of MLS so as not to scare the sheeple with the massive shadow inventory.
How about that gold bubble? Did it burst yet? Still waiting to add to my position.
EZB printing another half a trillion Euros., if that doesn’y pop the gold bubble I don’t know what will.
/sarcasm off
“…I don’t know what will.”
Maybe if central banks some day stop buying so much?
ft dot com
February 16, 2012 8:37 pm
China central bank in gold-buying push
By Jack Farchy in London
The World Gold Council believes China’s central bank made significant gold purchases in the final months of 2011, contributing to a surge in the country’s imports.
Marcus Grubb, managing director for investment at the WGC, a lobby group for the gold mining industry, told the Financial Times that buying by the People’s Bank of China could explain a large discrepancy between Chinese imports and the WGC’s estimates of consumer demand in the country.
“There is absolutely a discrepancy in the import figures,” said Marcus Grubb. “The obvious inference is that the central bank is buying.”
…
I just don’t understand why people are so fascinated with a substance whose primary use is decoration.
it’s a high-density, portable store of wealth.
But, the foundation of that “wealth” of gold is based on its use for decoration.
You not married, are you?
oh, theys like the “sparklely” … theys do, theys do …
Or he has no idea what real money is. Who can blame him though? In this centrally planned monetary system, debt is money and gold is just a shiny thing.
The point of my original post is that LOTS of “debt money” is currently getting converted to gold, which seems to have implications for the future path of gold on the world market.
Uhh Darrel what is the primary use of paper money? Why are people so fascinated with something whose primary use is writing grocery lists on?
Gold bubble is bursting. No more QE3 as per BB and Gold down by $100.
Realtors Are Liars®
Just remember, all real estate is local. I suggest the local market in Detroit has actually bottomed out, based on past evidence posted here of a point following the 2008 financial collapse when attractive single-family homes could be purchased in the $10-$20 thousand dollar price range. If you see prices like that in your area, you can probably safely assume prices are bottoming out.
By contrast, a sign the housing market has not bottomed out yet is that the experts are still cheerleading for higher home prices, which is patently irrational and a sign the bubble lives on. When these people are embarassed to make what will by-then seem completely foolish statements, the Housing Bubble will have receded into the rear view of history.
Markets
2/28/2012 @ 9:43AM
Case-Shiller: U.S. Home Prices Wrapped Up 2011 At Fresh Lows
A home is for sale in Glendale, California May…
Image by AFP/Getty Images via @daylife
Only one city in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index of home prices showed an annual gain last year, and it was not one you would expect.
Detroit was up 0.5% in December compared with the same month in 2010, while cities like Atlanta, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa all made fresh lows as the 20-city index dropped 4% from a year earlier. The 10-city and national composite were 3.9% and 4% from the fourth quarter of 2010.
The worst performer for the year was Atlanta, where prices dropped 12.8% from a year earlier, while Dallas was the only city other than Detroit to even sniff a gain, falling 0.4%. In terms of momentum, Detroit actually saw the biggest decline from November to December, down 3.8%, while prices in Phoenix managed to climb 0.8% from a month earlier and Miami prices inched up 0.2%. (Read the full report here.)
“In terms of pricing, the housing market ended 2011 on a very disappointing note, said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices.” While we thought we saw some signs of stabilization in the middle of 2011, it appears that neither the economy nor consumer confidence was strong enough to move the market in a positive direction as the year ended.”
…
Here is the story in graphs from Paper Economy:
http://www.blytic.com/DashboardView.aspx?dashboardid=08EC92B73AD14116A2DE9E736F7DDB87
Don’t be too quick to give Detroit a seat in the bleachers. It looks like the second leg down is in full swing and Detroit hasn’t caught the draft yet.
As an old time pen chart PID control engineer, it looks like this feedback loop is still out of control and somebody has been jacking with the proportional gain.
Didn’t know you were an instrumentation guy.
One of the things I had to learn at Bayway. I went the process engineer route eventually.
In the NY area, prices are still way above reality. But then again, so are bond prices & the S&P 500. This is one place where Fed policy really is keeping prices high.
Life as a Landlord
By BERT STRATTON
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/29/opinion/rental-business-picks-up.html?_r=1&hp
tease:
…I recently had an application from Joe, 71, a retired factory worker. He made $1,600 per month.
Welcome, Joe.
I ran a criminal search on him as a formality. Aggravated arson, forgery and sexual battery. Pre-Internet, I would have rented to him. Pre-Internet, it was hard to run background checks…
I’m still trying to figure out how those crimes tie-together.
My guess was that the first two were “business” and the last was more of a personal issue, but the article was generally about being a landlord, not about that particular tennant, so that particular person isn’t discussed.
Why is it so much trouble for people who write articles about the U.S. housing market to look back at the late-1980s real estate bust, which started around 1989 and ended around 1996, at least in California, to get a reasonable indication for how long the current one might last? This is grade school arithmetic, folks — your 2nd grader can do it:
1996-1989 = 7
2006 + 7 = 2013
Then pad the latter estimate by maybe another decade to take into consideration how much bigger the Housing Bubble was than the comparable price runup in the late-1980s. It’s simple, Simon!
Real Estate Markets
Housing Prices Dip for the Fourth Time in Three Years
By Alison Rogers | @RE_Rookie | February 28, 2012
After the Great Recession, there were some pundits who theorized that real estate would make a W-shaped recovery. With the S&P/Case-Shiller housing prices out this morning, it’s now clear that there are not one but two W’s in the chart — and that’s not a good thing. Index prices fell 1.1% from November to December. In other words, we’ve now experienced a quadruple dip.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that the market oscillations we’ve been seeing over the past three years are contained in a fairly narrow band. While the index is technically at its lowest level in five years, it really hasn’t been bouncing around that much compared with the collapse of 2006–08. In fact, at any time in the past three years, you could have said that “the housing market is at 2003–04 prices,” and you would have been right.
(MORE: Housing Recovery at Last? Evidence Mounts)
In other words, in 2006, real estate prices were a boxer that got knocked out and hit the mat, hard. The past three years have been a story of watching him struggle to get up again and fail repeatedly. He’s on his knees, but at least he hasn’t fallen to the floor again, either.
Currently, the 20-city Case-Shiller index is down 33.8% from peak housing prices in the summer of 2006. That puts it back at the levels of mid-2003.
A handful of the cities that make up the index did better than the aggregate. Miami and Phoenix made monthly gains. We’re talking about December data, remember, so the 0.2% upward blip in Miami and the 0.8% pop in Phoenix reflect buyers chasing sunshine.
Atlanta, on the other hand, didn’t fare as well; it was down 1.8% over the previous month. Detroit, meanwhile, was down 3.8% on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis.
Despite the bad news, the industry is starting to hazard some optimism. Homebuilder sentiment, which has risen for five months in a row, just popped to its highest level in five years. And residential real estate is traditionally a cyclical industry that gains momentum in the spring.
Even so, I think this recovery is still a green shoot struggling to poke through the soil, and I suspect we’ll continue bouncing along the bottom for most of 2012. After all, there are still some 10 million underwater homes in this country.
“Then pad the latter estimate by maybe another decade”
They don’t teach you to make wild-az assumptions like this in 2nd grade, upon which to build a pyramid of conclusions. That’s the stuff of grad school. Real “science”.
‘Why is it so much trouble for people who write articles about the U.S. housing market to look back…’
Not just write articles, but teach in universities, or make law. I haven’t lived in other countries, but here the PTB have the approach that if a problem isn’t to our liking, they just change the definition. We didn’t have a bubble like Japans, we are on the verge of the Great Depression part two! Drag out the money hoses and break all the rules, or we’ll be picking cotton Grandma!!
Then there’s the other side of this same view; there ain’t nothin’ we can’t bend to our will. House prices, HA! The United States government can suspend gravity! Then when house prices keep falling and we actually get (gasp) debt downgrades, the talking heads are surprised, or shocked even. Who are those rating agency guys, terrorists?
See, we’re exceptional. The US govt can borrow money endlessly, give up on making anything, police the world, never lose in the stock market (or on a house) and still have all the goodies we’ve come to expect. I know this because all the politicians tell me it’s so. And not only that, at the SAME TIME we are the freest, smartest, best lookin’, most honorable and wealthy people that ever walked the earth!
Rotten and corrupt to the core=USA
“The best government money can buy.”
“Who are those rating agency guy$, terrorist$?”
Harsh Mr. Ben.
Eyes stickin’ to me’s POV:
True$erialEnabler$!
And just think all you have to do to become one of the freest, smartest, best lookin’, most honorable and wealthy people that ever walked the earth is to have your parents walk across the border and be born here.
signed
The usual suspect
“…they just change the definition.”
Rewriting history also works quite well if you don’t like the outcome…
See, we’re exceptional.
Our god is also head and shoulders above the others.
The problem with government debt is that you never know how much is too much until borrowing costs go crazy, and then it’s too late to step back just a little bit. So “hasn’t broken so far” does not imply “therefore, a little more is okay.” Gee, sounds like mortgage debt doesn’t it? It’s very disappointing to see the same sort of thinking that got us INTO this mess still being propounded, just by different people about a different sector of the economy. And of course it is irritating to see that for the most part, both parties are only concerned with government debt levels when they are driven by policies that the other party is behind. When it’s one of their own sacred cows, you hear “But we’re in the middle of a recession, we need this to get the economy growing/back on track/enable job creators etc.”
In other words, in 2006, real estate prices were a boxer that got knocked out and hit the mat, hard. The past three years have been a story of watching him struggle to get up again and fail repeatedly. He’s on his knees, but at least he hasn’t fallen to the floor again, either.
And the government says now it’s OK to count to 1000 before we decide whether to call the fight. Or maybe even a million.
Apples to oranges.
Previous real estate busts house prices were maybe 10-20% overpriced. Inventory was a fraction of a percent overbuilt. The private sector was far from being tapped out. Prices just needed to drop a few %, then go flat for a few years to be back at fundamental price/rent and price/income metrics.
This time house prices were 100% overpriced. Inventory was 8-10% overbuilt with enough extra housing that it would take 10 years to absorb the excess housing even if we reduced construction by 75%. This time, the private sector is totally tapped out.
Previously, we could lower interest rates, loosen lending standards, get private sector debt flowing, Now, debt is so high people are strugling to meet minimum payments, rates are so low they can’t go lower, lending standards are so loose that fraud is the rule rather than the exception, so have to be tightened not loosened.
Comparing this event to the late 80s/early 90s housing market is like comparing the ship hitting an ice cube to the ship hitting the polar ice cap.
Houses in Texas circa late 80’s were just as over priced as they are now. It’s not ‘different’ this time.
It is different in that:
1) The bubble was nationwide this time
2) We are exporting jobs at a torrid pace
3) We are at record debt levels
4) Interest rates can’t get much lower (vs. rates in 1988-89)
But it’s not exactly “apples and oranges”. It’s more like “Tiny newborn field mouse to Giant New York Sewer Rat”.
Technically related, but in vastly different scales.
Well Texas WAS exporting jobs at a torrid pace when the oil bubble burst. ;-P But y’all are right, you can’t expect this to be an exact repeat of earlier RE busts because of the the immense scale.
As long as they’re waiting for it to all bounce back, it won’t happen.
February 23, 2012, 9:44 AM
Baltic Dry, Dr. Copper Flashing Warning Signs
By Carolyn Cui
Please forgive us for spoiling the fun.
But here are some signs that don’t square with the optimism exhibited in the markets – and we think they are worth examining.
Copper, which has been given the nickname “Dr. Copper” for being a bellwether for the health of the global economy, has quietly left the party early. The metal peaked on Feb. 9 after a failed attempt to break the $4-per-pound mark. It has since fallen about 5% to $3.81 a pound, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has edged up 0.1% and earlier this week flirted with 13000.
Also, the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks the shipping rates for bulk commodities, had sunk to 647 on Feb. 3, the lowest level in more than 25 years, before recovering in recent days. Even though there is a glut in the freight markets, the fact that shipping companies now charge as much as they did in Aug. 1986 – when oil traded around $13 a barrel – is mindboggling. Only two months into 2012, the index has already lost nearly 60%.
Of course, copper and the Baltic index are more reflective of the global economy, rather than that of the U.S. Maybe this partly explains the divergence.
But if we are still living in an integrated world economy, what does this bode for the U.S.?
Heck, stocks are probably rallying BECAUSE of slowing global economy, not despite.
Bad news = more QE = higher stock prices. The real risk to the stock bubble is if the economy starts to improve and the Fed, Gawd forbid, starts selling assets instead of buying them.
“….charge as much as they did in 1986- when oil traded at around $13 a barrel…..”
Yeah, but they are so much more efficient now, vs. 1986.
It’s okay. Any losses in profit will be made up for with cram-downs on the workforce.
We have No inflation, nothing to worry about
Then why when i gotz me a hankerin of a big fat juicy hamburger last night with onions and red peppers and some After Death hot sauce did the local Foodtown wanna charge me $3.99 a pound yes $3.99 a lb for basic high fat beef?
http://www.hotsauceworld.com/hsw1207.html
Cant wait till Faster chimes in ..that sauce is for wussies I’ll make you some hot sauce you’ll never forget.
dj, that’s “a hankerin fer”.
We get ground Sirloin for about that price here. There’s some advantage to not living on an island without resources.
New York Federal Reserve bankster William Dudley said that i-Pads are cheaper now therefore there is no inflation.
Did he check the price of suicide nets?
Suicide nets for emotionally volatile Foxconn City factory workers are, like volatile food and energy prices, excluded from calculation of “core” inflation.
ipads, that’s just silly. Be fair. Everyone knows 55 inch flatscreens are the real barometer.
12 Things That Will Be Cheaper In 2012
http://www.wpbf.com/mostpopular/index.html - 81k -
is a house on the list?
“is a house on the list?”
Yes a house is on the list. i-Pad, wine, car rentals, tech cr@p etc. made the list. However food, gas, clothing, rent, health insurance, college tuition etc. did not make the list.
However food, gas, clothing, rent, health insurance, college tuition etc. did not make the list.
Knock me over with a feather.
“Knock me over with a feather.”
I can`t afford a feather, it wasn`t on the list either.
“Knock me over with a feather.”
Rent it not going up at all in many parts of metro Denver. Maybe in DC, NYC, Seattle, and in the delusional mind of Amy Hoak, but rent is not going up here.
New 50 inch 480 bucks. I’ll be kicking myself next year when it is 300.
Beef got you down eat beans rice oatmeal bananas and peanut butter.
This is going to end badly.
I loved BB’s comments today
1. Unemployment is unacceptably high and the MSM’s take is more bond buying is on the way.
2. Then a paragraph down, gasoline prices are rising and this might mean less money for spending on other things and thus increasing unemployment.
All in the same article.
Have you seen the PRICE of PB lately up 40% drought in texas Georigia ..shortage of peanuts
peanut butter.
“This is going to end badly.”
Maybe for the Lucky Duckies it will. But not for the Masters of the Universe, doing God’s work…
Peanut butter is getting mighty pricey these days.
“Peanut butter is getting mighty pricey these days.”
Worse yet, you can’t freeze celery to good either.
Oh, and how are almond$ & Diamond$ related?
[aside from the hologram serial numbers]
Peanut butter is getting mighty pricey these days.
Ditto for frozen blueberries.
Nice bit on NPR this am
Seems the rent to own industry wants to move back to my state but there is a consumer protection law preventing it.
Their spokesman said
This law requires rental companies disclose how much interest the renter will be paying in order to own the product over time. This in essence is a ban on our industry.
Of course they are trying to do away with that law, likely throwing money around the capital and buying friends.
If providing consumers with accurate information amounts to an effective ban, than that is a business that should be banned.
“New York Federal Reserve bankster William Dudley said that i-Pads are cheaper now therefore there is no inflation.”
My kid will have an i-Pad and jelly sandwich and I`ll have an i-Pad with fries hold the mayo because that costs too much. After that I`ll go throw a few i-Pads in my tank.
Yeah, and those “Ground I-Pad burgers” are so tasty.
Let them eat integrated circuits……
Bob Graeve handeled the short sale for my last DB LL in Jupiter Landings. When I asked him how long it had been since the LL paid the mortgage he smiled and asked when the inspectors from the bank started coming around, I said about 2 years. He said there you go.
Realtors: Sales prices didn’t really take a dive in January
By Kimberly Miller
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 5:35 p.m. Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2012
A dramatic plunge in the sales price of Palm Beach County homes last month was the result of a data mix up that left some Realtors reeling and others calling for a recount.
The Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches said Tuesday that the correct median sales price for an existing single-family home in January was $175,000, $25,000 more than what the group reported last week when sales statistics were released statewide and nationally.
Realtor Bob Graeve of Illustrated Properties Real Estate in Palm Beach Gardens said $175,000 still seemed low for a single-family home, especially considering it’s a 10 percent drop from December. But he acknowledged that a plethora of short sales and foreclosure sales are dragging down prices in some areas.
“A lot of investors are out there looking for cheap stuff to buy and turn into rentals,” Graeve said.
The competition, however, is driving up prices in pockets of Palm Beach County.
Graeve said one-bedroom condominiums at the San Matera development near The Gardens Mall were selling last year for $64,000. The most recent purchase had a price tag of $96,000.
“You try to tell investors that things are selling above list price, but they have to lose a few deals before they really believe you,” Graeve said.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/real-estate/realtors-sales-prices-didnt-really-take-a-dive-2205582.html - 84k
Jeff,
I’m in Orlando. Thanks for the link and the laugh- I needed it. I posted a reply to that article. We’ll see if the PB Post posts it.
Take care
Here are the last 2 comments They aren`t mine but I did get a kick out of…Buyers are liars
The people you can’t trust are the customers. They want to hide mold issues, say they’re going to clean up stuff and don’t, make offers that are too low, not show up for appointments, and used to be the ones faking their income. Realtors are just trying to do what they are paid to do, which is sell the house. I lost all respect for buyers and sellers and hope they are all broke and end up in jail. My income dropped from 200,000 to 70,000 over the last 5 years thanks to their incompetence.
Buyers are liars
6:41 AM, 2/29/2012 REPORT ABUSE
“The people you can’t trust are the customers…. I lost all respect for buyers and sellers and hope they are all broke and end up in jail. My income dropped from 200,000 to 70,000 over the last 5 years thanks to their incompetence.”
AhhhhhHaaaHaaaHaaa!! Caught in your own trap, huh? No doubt you are one of those ‘used-house-salesmen’ who believed their own BS and levered-up, buying an overpriced McMansion (or two) near the top of the bubble. Drink some more realtor kool-aid and quit whining.
Harry Grundle
11:31 AM, 2/29/2012
Now THAT is some funny stuff.
Hey Beer, I’m in central FL too.
Liz! Greetings from Orlando. Other members Dimedropped and Diogenes are also from around here somewhere. We need to get a ‘Florida Research Team’ together for beer and comparing notes on the most lunatic excesses we have seen so far. Is there a good way for we miscreants to communicate with one another? And yes, that was my comment in the PB Post. Whenever I get on a MSM website to whip the lumpenproletariat into a frenzy and torment the feeble-minded with regard to RE issues, I normally post as either Harry Grundle or Harry Gooch. Childish, but hey- that’s my most endearing feature.
We have 2 winners today:
http://charlotte.cbslocal.com/2012/02/29/man-bursts-into-flames-after-accidentally-drinking-gasoline-lighting-cigarette/
http://www.clickorlando.com/news/Arrest-made-in-The-Senator-tree-fire/-/1637132/9146402/-/v3we2h/-/index.html
I don`t think it`s even close. You can not compare a drug addict lighting a 3,500 year old tree on fire so she has enough light to do her drugs to a dude who accidentally drinks gasoline, spits it out on his clothes and then goes outside to burn one. The gas man is the clear winner. But he took one for the team. If only the tax on cigarettes was higher and gasoline was $10 a gallon, perhaps this tragedy could have been avoided.
“City spokeswoman Diane Miller said investigators believe Banning was at a friend’s apartment when he apparently mistook a jar of gasoline sitting by the kitchen sink for a beverage. After taking a gulp, he spit the gas out and got some on his clothes.”
“Sometime later, investigators say Banning went outside to smoke a cigarette and burst into flames.”
So now we have a new “oldest tree” somewhere.
the oldest are the bristlecone pines in the inyo national forest.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_%28tree%29
Methuselah is pushing 5,000.
I worked on the new visitor center there last year, the old one was burned down by an arsonist.
I didn`t hear any Realtors calling for a recount in 2005 when the median price hit $421,500. But now that it has been repoted as $150,000 they are crying foul it`s really $175,000. It`s a data mix up! Recount! Recount! The competition is driving prices up! Where`s my lobbyist? How could this happen?
By Kimberly Miller
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 5:35 p.m. Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2012
A dramatic plunge in the sales price of Palm Beach County homes last month was the result of a data mix up that left some Realtors reeling and others calling for a recount.
The Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches said Tuesday that the correct median sales price for an existing single-family home in January was $175,000, $25,000 more than what the group reported last week when sales statistics were released statewide and nationally.
“Median home prices for Broward and Palm Beach counties tumbled by roughly 50 percent after peaking at $421,500 and $391,100, respectively, in November 2005, according to data from the Florida Realtors. The median means half the homes sold for more and half for less.”
http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2011-12-24/news/fl-housing-bottom-20111223_1_south-florida-home-prices-underwater-mortgages-mortgage-rates - 43k -
…scumbag realtors. The mere suggestion of affordable housing is blasphemous to these fawkin’ crooks.
They’re a sales organization. They make their livelihood from commissions from selling houses. As a result, any data they release, any pronouncements they make, are all geared towards improving their business. All their pronouncements and actions should be viewed through that lens. Not saying they don’t produce valid data from time to time, but caveat emptor.
The willingness to overlook blatant lies in the name of “business” is the fundamental problem in this country. This is were I depart from all the rest of you here. Lying in the name of “economic activity” is sanctioned and endorsed by all levels of government. It’s wrong. If any one of us here lied to profit personally as individuals, we’d face charges.
And it includes all businesses, not just housing. And it also includes all people like buyers stretching the truth on their mortgage app. wink wink.
“They’re a sales organization. They make their livelihood from commissions from selling”
You didn`t order the Metalic Pea?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTaTitRENDM - 134k
Where`s my lobbyist?
ROFL
From the Denver Post: Colorado’s college graduates increasingly weighed down by student debt
“From community colleges to four-year institutions, many Colorado students have left school lugging a heavier financial burden than they did five years ago. About two-thirds of them graduated with student- loan debt, with the average 2011 bachelor’s degree recipient owing $23,662, according to the Colorado Department of Higher Education.
A nationwide snapshot by the nonprofit Project on Student Debt found that for the class of 2010, those who graduated with debt owed an average of $25,250. The study ranked Colorado 32nd nationally, with an average of $22,017, well below New Hampshire’s high of $31,048.
But the wave of student-loan obligations comes with another disturbing trend — rising default rates fueled by rising unemployment among young college graduates.
With 11.5 percent of its student-loan customers defaulting, Colorado ranks third among all U.S. states and territories, and has tracked higher than the national rate over the past several years.”
Does anyone know about the student loan default rates by major area of study?
Years ago (mid 80’s I think) I had a conversation with a former college professor from the art school I went to. He told me that people in in the arts (such as the painters and sculptors from my school) had a better repayment rate than some such as docs and lawyers…
He had a theory that it had something to do with greed and character.
I don’t think you can really default.
The IRS will withhold your tax refund and Social Security will withhold as well until the debt is paid.
If I remember correctly the rules were changed making it harder (or impossible?) to discharge student debts in bankruptcy, etc.
But I’m still curious if there are differences in the repayment rates of different student categories.
Or simply amount. It is easier to repay ~20k than ~100k.
Let’s see, at $500 week before taxes, that will take…
I wonder how long until the 1% demand the reestablishemnt of debtor prison?
Read “Little Dorrit” by Charles Dickens.
How long before…?
It already exists. Where have you been?
For child support arrears, is the only way I know about. Probably based on contempt of court.
Do you know of other debtor imprisonment?
“child support”
Bundles of joy?
I’d say the most imprisonment is “debtor’s imprisonment.” Rich people can afford decent legal representation. And many folks, especially women miscreants, are in jail in lieu of paying the fines levied against them.
I can’t even begin to imagine the kind of debt private U students must graduate with. Tuition at the University of Denver and Regis University is about $30K per year. Even with a 50% scholarship that’s $60K over four years. I suppose that the ratio of “rich kids” is higher at these schools, but still.
Student debt is worst financial burden I have ever known. The wisest thing I ever did in my life was pay off my law school debt in three years (actually a bit less).
Not all of us went to grad school to work in Big Law. 5-7 years (assuming no more layoffs) could be balanced with maintaining some life/hobbies outside of work.
Anyone who isn’t consumed by work 24/7 is a damn slacker!
I don’t blame most people who can’t pay off a huge burden of student debt in the time it took me. I had lot going for me in that situation especially a high salary and low living expenses. I also had motivation in the form of high interest rates, none of the payments being deductible and wanting to have the freedom to stop working for the big firms.
I have little sympathy for the folks who had the same loans, the same job and a much, much higher flying lifestyle who then whined that they didn’t understand how I could be doing it so quickly. Kind of reminded me of the kids in high school who didn’t understand why my grades were better than theirs even though I spent a huge chunck of most weekends studying and they didn’t open a book from Friday at 2:00 PM to Monday at 8:00 AM.
“Friday at 2:00 PM to Monday at 8:00 AM.”
That’s when I worked. Also Tuesday and Thursday. In a sense, I paid off college in three years too, the three years it took me finish college.
Disclaimer: Tuition was $385. The slide rule was my father’s.
Tuition was about $50/credit hour (on quarter calendar, semester calendar equivalent $75) at community college and then $100/credit hour ($150 semester equivalent) after transfering to State U for undergrad.
7 years later graduate school tuition at different State U (as in state resident) was $400+ per semester credit hour.
You worked from 2:00 PM Friday to 8:00 AM Monday in high school?
My local CC runs around 1-2K per semester.
Engineering College Polly, and only while the sun was up. I must have missed where high school entered into the discussion.
“Kind of reminded me of the kids in high school who didn’t understand why my grades were better than theirs even though I spent a huge chunck of most weekends studying and they didn’t open a book from Friday at 2:00 PM to Monday at 8:00 AM.”
Obviously I took a wrong turn! I was still centered on college debt you mentioned a few lines above that.
Yep. Recently I couldn’t remember when I’d paid off my LS debt, and found a letter telling me when both NDSL and GSL loans were paid off. Think it was 1999. I should frame it.
“You worked from 2:00 PM Friday to 8:00 AM Monday in high school?”
That’s a lot of hours. Is that for gassing up the GTO and insurance for cruising or to help feed the family/pay the bills? I worked my @zz off for money for private high school during the summer, but was fortunate not to have to work during the year to make ends meet. We squeaked by. I was studying much of the weekend like polly.
I worked on a woodlot sawing, splitting, stacking and delivering firewood. Some apple hauling in season. I did not mean to imply that I worked through the night, but I got in 40+ hours a week, weekends and Tuesday/Thursday. I was paying my own tuition and books, rent and food for me and my wife and operating a rusty old LTD. I took the train to school. She was going to school on a grant, but there were still living expenses.
Again. The reference was to high school.
My incredulity was based on the high school part. We had to work through college too. Dining hall for me during the year, huge workload in the summer for school money and I was involved with ROTC as well, so I didn’t come out with much (monetary) debt, but I did have to delay my career plans for a while…
I guess I was lucky. I had a P/T job in college writing firmware in assembly language. Paid $9/hr in 1983. My student loans were small, even though I went to a private school (University of San Diego). I did have some nice scholarships that covered my tuition.
“Again. The reference was..”
Talking about myself often gets me scolded.
The conundrum: You can only get out of student loan debt by paying it off or by dying.
Well, you can always pay your college loan with a credit card then default on the CC.. just sayin…
Or with a HELOC…..instead they went to Disney, and kept the student loans
Can young people still get 100k worth of credit cards with just a signature?
Well, you can always pay your college loan with a credit card then default on the CC.. just sayin…
Tough to land that first job with a bad credit rating.
Tough to land that first job with a bad credit rating.
That’s why the smart approach would be to do it _after_ you land the first job. Slowly ramp up your CC debt (and limits) while always making the payments on time, and paying down the student loans.
Then BK once the student loans hit $0. Problem solved.
Not saying I would actually do this; just that it solves the problem of student debt not being dischargable.
Money is fungible.
I’m way beyond my first job. The only reasons we don’t pay off my student loan is the interest is next-to-nil and there is a death benefit of debt forgiveness. I think of it as a very low-cost life insurance policy.
I think of it as a very low-cost life insurance policy.
LOL—awesome. I like the way you think, prof.
College students are a funny bunch (and I used to be one of them).
They are all for “hope and change”, “yes we can”, big government social programs, higher taxes, etc. - pretty much everything in the dem/socialist playbook.
Then they graduate and reality hits them square in the jaw.
That’s how it’s always been. The reality has hit hard for the people who supported republicans last 30 years as well.
Read “What’s The Matter With Kansas” by Thomas Frank.
I’ve read it and didn’t really agree with the premise; Frank should know that people don’t vote purely on economic issues.
Then again if Frank believes our economic conditions will improve by voting Dems, then he is a bigger idiot than I thought.
“Frank should know that people don’t vote purely on economic issues.”
Yet they should. You know this.
The wealthy vote with their wallet. You know this too.
The premise of his book is that people vote *against* their own economic self-interests, motivated by social issues, the holy triumvirate of which are gays, guns, and God.
The premise of his book is that people vote *against* their own economic self-interests, motivated by social issues, the holy triumvirate of which are gays, guns, and God.
———————————
I’m not sure I’d agree. I’d say it’s more like sports where people pick a party and vote for it and get mad if it loses. What the party is for, and the other party are against, is mostly immaterial.
If the book’s premise were true, it would be really easy for Democrats to just ‘lie’ and co-opt Republican principles until elected, and then vote for whatever their real interests are once elected. And it wouldn’t require any less integrity than asking a group of people who value social issues over financial ones to subvert their own morals for financial gain.
Yet they should. You know this.
But they won’t, everyone knows this. Therefore people who want their votes should take that into account.
The will when they wake up and I contend alot of them are waking up.
Wait until “Mothers-to-be-perhaps-1-day” are arrested for muderers, then we’ll know exactly where Kansas & Kansan’s stand with their Government affiliations & dictates-of-consciousness. :-/
(Does the criminal label get grandfathered in the family genealogy over the last … oh yeah, 7,000 years?)
Yet they should. You know this.
The wealthy vote with their wallet. You know this too.
There’s no such a thing as voting for your economic interest without considering the unintended consequences. It may last for a year or two but you will run out of OOP at some point. We are obviously living thru one right now.
All you can do is vote for your personal freedom and liberty. Rest is in God’s hand.
OOP=OPP
You call it what you want but the the elite vote with their wallets. Furthermore, they fund elections to fatten their wallets.
What’s worse, the elite pay for the lobbyists to drum up other issues besides “wallets”.
The “Assault Rifle ban” was the classic example. Turn the die hard gun nuts into “one issue” voters. Put out the propaganda that you are fighting for “freedom” and “constitutional rights”. While at the same time, shifting the tax burden onto the middle class. Yeah, I fell for it, once.
Sure, you are “free” to buy an assault rifle, but you can’t, because you can’t afford one anymore. Unless it’s a Chinese AK, or SKS. Or you put it on the 10-20% interest Visa card.
The “Assault Rifle ban” was the classic example. Turn the die hard gun nuts into “one issue” voters.
And why would Democrats fall into the trap of championing such a thing? I notice they’ve been more careful since…maybe in another generation it won’t get held against them if they can resist the urge to do it again.
the holy triumvirate…
Gotta Google that…
That’s how it’s always been. The reality has hit hard for the people who supported republicans last 30 years as well.
FWIW, there were plenty of “Young Republicans” in college. banana boy’s memory of all his classmates being birkenstock shod, granola munching, atheist hippies strikes me as being very selective.
Sure there were people like that, and Hare Krishnas, and stoners. But they were the minority. If you’re not used to seeing them they would of course seem very threatening. I suppose that for those people there’s always Bob Jones or Oral Roberts Universities.
Guess that kinda gives a clue into what he was majoring in.
Didn’t see to many stoners and Krishnas around the Engineering building…..
“there were plenty of “Young Republicans” in college”
Otter: “Yup, he’s there with Greggie, Dougie and some of the other Hitler youth …”
Sorry, I couldn’t help myself. I was reminded of my Delta Tau Chi days and my loathing for the Neidermeyers on campus. Granted, we were just as rancid in our own way, but it was self-inflicted and that’s its own issue…
Guess that kinda gives a clue into what he was majoring in.
He was a poly sci major. He later did a masters in accounting.
The “dem/socialist playbook”? Do you mean Saul Alinsky’s “Rules For Radicals”? Or Chairman Mao’s “Little Red Book”? Or Karl Marx’s “Das Kapital”?
YES WE CAN!
My dad had that Mao’s Little Red Book. I remember playing with it and even putting in my pocket as a kid.
College students are a funny bunch
You’d be surprised at how pragmatic they have become these days.
Heck, many were quite pragmatic even in the early 80’s when I was a college student. Sure, there were some “radicals” (I still chucke at the memory of the ‘Che Cafe’ at UCSD) but most of my peers were simply focused on graduating and landing a good paying job.
To paint all college students with the broad brush you use is disingenous. Only a minority (in the 80’s) were ever like that to begin with. I can’t speak for the 60’s, as I was still knee high to a grasshopper back then and was still blissfully unaware of Vietnam.
And some will simply surprise you. There was a dorm mate we had at UCSD. The guy was a pot head, he even grew pot in his dorm room.
Today? He’s a a millionaire. He owns his own forensic accounting firm and makes a mint. Not bad for a guy who was stoned half the time.
He’s still as liberal as ever though. He considers the 60’s as an decade of enlightenment.
Too bad the Republican party is no longer fiscally conservative, nor for smaller gov. Look at the Bush years to see what the neo-cons stand for.
2 Santa Clauses theory has been around before Bush II. Neocons added never ending wars and other goodies.
Students, police clash in Spanish city Barcelona
By JOSEPH WILSON
The Associated Press
February 29, 2012 11:02 AM EST
BARCELONA, Spain — Spanish students in Barcelona clashed Wednesday with police and set fire to garbage containers during nationwide protests against education spending cuts.
Police said officers in riot gear charged a crowd outside the stock market in Spain’s second largest city after protesters who had broken away from a peaceful rally of thousands threw rocks and other objects. Authorities made an unspecified number of arrests.
The fire in the containers spread to a car and protesters smashed a bank window.
Some students later made their way toward the University of Barcelona and took refuge in a plaza inside the campus.
Student Pau Bronsoms, 22, said police used truncheons to hit protesters and fired rubber bullets.
“We did not expect this degree of repression,” he said. “Nobody broke anything until they charged.”
An official with the regional police would not give details of what methods they used against demonstrators.
Students later headed down an avenue toward the Mobile World Congress, the huge cell phone trade show being held this week in Barcelona, but a line of police kept them away from the convention center hosting the event.
Students also marched in Madrid and Valencia, but no violence was reported there. The country is enduring steep austerity cuts and the prospect of recession as the government tries to stem an unemployment rate of almost 23 percent. Among those under age 25 it approaches a staggering 50 percent.
Thanks for pointing this out Jeff. Compared to students in other countries, our pups are a bunch of docile sheep who just want a cubicle in Corporate America.
They’ve been brainwashed by their suburban Republican parents into believing that if they shut up and put their nose to the grindstone, they will be gazillionaires.
“they will be gazillionaires.”
In the U.S. state of Washington….
It is illegal to pretend that one’s parents are rich.
http://www.totallyuselessknowledge.com/laws.php - 33k -
High unemployment among the youth of a nation is usually a precursor to major political upheavals.
We ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
As the squad predicted in the HBB new year’s thread, if 2011 was “Occupy” then 2012 will be “long hot summer”…
Think 1968
1789 would be better…
The Atlantic
Why don’t Americans riot anymore?
http://www.theatlanticcities.com/politics/2012/02/what-dont-americans-riot-anymore/1274/
L.A. Riots - 1992 - YouTube
Nov 13, 2011 … If you wish to understand the present, study the past …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gCHS7CsjsE - 135k - Cached - Similar pages
I think it’s simpler than the concepts listed in the article.
American’s aren’t supposed to be negative anymore. Try complaining about anything, anything at all and you can watch the eyes glaze over. If you are a success in America you’re supposed to be happy, happy, happy all the time. And if you can’t for some reason pull that off, well, bud, what the heck is wrong w/you?
Somehow the PTB have managed to equate unhappiness w/being a loser. A brilliant touch really, where the people trap themselves and it’s self reinforcing.
Little known fact: it was NOT just LA that rioted over the Rodney King decision, but several other major cities as well Toronto.
Why didn’t we see that? Take a wild guess…
The squad predicts more “flash mob” riots like at the Wisconsin state fair last year or the numerous assaults by “youths” in Center City Philadelphia. If real “riots” break out expect it to look more like London last August than a full-scale Los Angeles 1992 situation.
There are two different types of civil disobedience:
1. Destruction based on a bubbled over container of anger, often from factions not especially known for self discipline. (very low income, low skill, low sense of hope, does not feel he/she has much to lose, IE LA, 92)
2. An organizing of the Joe the Plumber or Jake the Dentist on the street who normally wouldn’t dream of taking part in any public complaints until things get so crazy out of hand he feels he has to lest something awful and unreversible come about. (Definitely has something to lose and it won’t be offered up for martyrdom unless things get so frightening out of whack, they feel in imminent danger of losing what’s important to them, IE bonus marchers, 1932/Great Depression)
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/macarthur/peopleevents/pandeAMEX89.html
And to CarrieAnn’s post, see Barbara Ehrenreich’s book “Bright Sided: How the Relentless Promotion of Positive Thinking Has Undermined America”.
By one estimate, 25% of colleges will be shuttered within the next decade. Government-backed debt, in both housing and education, has led to horrific overpricing in the market place. Unfortunately, education has been outpacing inflation for decades and it’s only a matter of time before you see a significant drop-off in those attending college, and a huge increase in loan default.
And regarding the comments yesterday about vo-tech schools, I have heard many incidents of not being able to find suitable replacements for welders, tech-savvy mechanics, oil-rig workers or other skilled trades for those nearing retirement age. Replacing them using, for example, unemployed ME majors seems silly and far-fetched - they’re different animals.
oil-rig workers
There are a lot of them in Rio now - many Brits and Norwegians.
“I have heard many incidents of not being able to find suitable replacements for welders, tech-savvy mechanics, oil-rig workers or other skilled trades for those nearing retirement age.”
It’s true. It’s happening in all the male dominated industries. It’s why I have a job right now.
If you have a trade, union or non union, you can get a job in Ft McMurray area making about $160,000 - starters. Citizens from all over the world are working there. Male and female.
And they are seriously short of all types of workers - from cooks to electricians to project managers. Safety workers, welders, machinists, cooks, cleaners, carpenters, project managers, bookkeepers, IT personnel, pipefitters - you name it.
I understand this is starting in the shale oil area of the USA as well.
Yeah, a friend of my (recent grad, used to deliver pizzas) makes the commute from WA to ND to work in the fields. Good money, and he comes back every 3-4 weeks. ND has the lowest unemployment in the US, I believe.
That’s a fluke. Another boom/bust event. It’s undependable.
I’m talking about traditional heavy business like electric utility construction and wire maintenance, heavy and highway construction, civil engineering etc. All these guys that got in the biz in the 70’s, became supers and PM’s in the late 80’s and held on are now retiring leaving a large talent gap.
The ONLY reason there are any shortages is pay.
Where I live, many places want experienced welders, machinists, and pipe fitters for less than $15 hour.
Good luck with that.
Eventfully they DO fill the positions… with not very reliable employees who have, shall we say, “problems”.
Turkey,
I would say that is more accurate, generally speaking. Especially for non-union trades.
Got a “cold call” from a recruiter this morning. Seemed disappointed that I had 30 years in the business, and that I was working.
They are looking for mechs in South Carolina, San Bernadino, and Oklahoma. Guys with MD-80, B737, A319 experience.
This tells me that all of those airlines who decided to throw their in-house maintenance guys under the bus and go with sub-contractors are either going to start having trouble getting their aircraft out of “C” checks, or they are going to be paying their subs/MROs a lot more.
Expect to see more whining about “shortages of mechanics” and “over-regulation” (aka “How dare the FAA mandate that only qualified people inspect/repair airplanes?…..damn Socialists”). And carrot/sticks/arm-twisting of state and local governments for “training acadamies” to train airline maintenance people.
This, at a time when the FAA is upping the requirements for pilots……mandating minimum hours of experience, an ATP and “type-ratings” before they can fly passengers.
AA may have fooked themselves again. By declaring Chapter 11 and throwing the pensions under the bus, they have just eliminated THE ONLY REASON for a bunch of guys to stay around. If Chapter 11 was intended to reduce labor costs, they may be sadly disappointed.
Yeah, this bizness is totally FUBAR, but it sure isn’t boring……I keep thinking that the PTB can’t possibly come up with any more hare-brained, short-sighted decision making, and they keep proving me wrong.
“a huge increase in loan default.”
You’re fearing the daylights of those fella’s over at: The FederalRe$erveInc. SCOTU$ persons bldg, stop it.
When it comes to policies regarding the financial industry, all policies have benefits and costs. Almost always in the last twenty years, the costs have been mostly ignored. If the policy created more profit for the financial sector, the net societal costs were ignored. And to a degree, this was true for other large, well-moneyed sectors as well.
Hopefully, going forward, policy makers and the public will not only look at benefits to the industry, but the inevitable costs on the society. Viewing all policies through a balanced cost/benefit lens. When an advocate lists the benefits, the next question a person should have is, “What are the societal costs?” Then an informed conclusion as to whether the policy is socially beneficial or not can be reached.
“Hopefully, going forward, policy makers …”
won’t have to sign young repubican pledges whilst on their knees.
Here’s one that won’t be a participant of their lil’ charade anymores:
Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe to Retire
(Hwy50 misses her already!)
I’m hoping she reconsiders as a demoncrapt in 5 years and joins US Senator Lil’ Opie in votes that waste even more monie$ for Amtrak!
This war will guarantee Obama second term.
The growing breakdown of order and security in Syria could place its significant stockpiles of poison gases and operational chemical weapons at risk,” Maine Republican Susan Collins, New York Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, and New Hampshire Democrat Jeanne Shaheen wrote in a February 17 letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. DOTMIL obtained a copy of the letter.
Maine Republican Susan Collins
Hey Susan, please follows Ra$h Limpbaugh$ sage advice & switch to a demoncrapt!
(hey, just think, no more pledge signings to attend!)
Those gals from Maine rock babeeee!!!!!
His second term is already guaranteed.
‘This war will guarantee Obama second term’
It didn’t help Bush the 1st. Remember it’s the economy stupid? Plus, the people in the US are sick of war.
Anyway, I don’t understand all this war hoopla. Recall how it took months of mobilizing to invade Iraq? Do people really think war is just some bombers obliterating targets? Remember ’shock and awe’? Whose boots are going on the ground? How are we gonna pay for it?
I heard Mitt Romney at the AZ debate say gasoline prices were irrelevant compared to the dangers Iran posed. Oh yeah? Let’s try a few months of 7 or 8 dollar gas and see how flippant these people are. Think about it; what would a gas price shock like that do to your wallet? Add that a few million times over. Talk about a multiplier effect on the economy.
I agree with what you said. But what about Bush Jr?
The only reason he got re-elected was the Iraq war. The war was in such a mess that people gave him the chance to “correct” it.
‘The only reason he got re-elected was the Iraq war.’
I disagree. The Democrats nominated a guy who said he was going to send even more troops into Iraq. The anti-war voter had no choice once Howard Dean was scuttled.
‘the new “wars” won’t be about invasion. It will be about drone attacks and dropping $hit from 35000 feet above.’
http://thinkprogress.org/security/2009/09/28/175662/the-consequences-of-a-strike-on-iran/?mobile=nc
‘Retired Gen. Anthony Zinni said that he liked to respond to advocates of such strikes with “And then what?”
‘After you’ve dropped those bombs on those hardened facilities, what happens next? What happens if they decide, in their hardened shelters with their mobile missiles, to start launching those? What happens if they launch them into U.S. bases on the other side of the gulf? What happens if they launch into Israel, or somewhere else? Into a Saudi oil field? Into Ras Laffan, with all the natural gas? What happens if they now flush their fast patrol boats, their cruise missiles, the [unclear] full of mines, and they sink a tanker, an oil tanker? And of course the economy of the world goes absolutely nuts. What happens if they activate sleeper cells? The MOIS, the intelligence service — what happens if another preemptive attack by the West, the U.S. and Israel, they fire up the streets and now we got problems. Just tell me how to deal with all that, okay?’
‘Because, eventually, if you follow this all the way down, eventually I’m putting boots on the ground somewhere. And like I tell my friends, if you like Iraq and Afghanistan, you’ll love Iran.’
It’s like these guys are flopping around, looking for ANY reason to “intervene” (aka changing the subject).
Maybe Syria’s chemical stuff is in danger. Funny it wasn’t a problem 12 months ago.
And yeah, maybe it’s possible that “terrorists” will get them. It may also be possible that they have an Internet connection, can read English, and realize that their interests may best be served by sitting back and NOT giving the US an excuse to intervene, while conveniently giving the current Republicrat regime an excuse to divert attention away from their multitude of leadership failures.
If you are looking for “regime change” in the USA, the fewer reasons you give the current PTB reasons to distract the sheeple from domestic issues, the better.
In 1964, most people actually believed we had a good reason to get into Vietnam. Since then, a half dozen ill-advised, badly conducted wars and police actions have exhausted our government’s credibility, when it comes to intervention. Or pretty much anything else.
“I disagree”
My memory might be fuzzy on this, but I think Kerry was put in a position where he had to look tough, to appease right leaning moderates who he might be able to sway, as well as fending off the swift-boaters. Without that, I don’t think he advocates for ramped up troop levels, given his history. So, I think butters has a point. You had to prove you could win the war, not back away from it. That favored the incumbent, especially amongst the tough guy voting crowd in that instance.
So they’re rolling out the WMD bogeyman once again. Unbelievable.
‘You had to prove you could win the war’
So why was Howard Dean so popular?
Nothing like a splendid little war to rally the voters around the commander in chief.
“So why was Howard Dean so popular?”
He was but it didn’t last long. I’m not sure if the timing was intentional, but I think it worked in GWB’s favor. I think too many moderates felt the war had just started, so let’s let it play out. Keep in mind many (most?) were still buying the WMD line at that point. Had we known then what we know now….
Also keep in mind that was the height of the “with us or against us,” chest-thumping patriot BS.
And also the new “wars” won’t be about invasion. It will be about drone attacks and dropping $hit from 35000 feet above. Not many will even know it.
“what would a gas price shock like that do to your wallet?”
I have been asking myself that for a while. If one does not drive and doesn’t buy much “stuff” and grows a large part of one’s own food, what is going to hit him in the wallet? I’m not being fatuous here, just trying to figure out where I can make preparations becuase I see energy/gas prices increasing.
It’s not just that you need little, it’s also that your neighbors don’t know how that works.
So it’ll get bad, and bad for my neighbors, but selfishly and for the point of this argument, what’ll happen with my family?
Gas at $8/gal isn’t TEOTWAWKI and you don’t see Europeans shooting each other for food (yet — Greece?). We might not be able to see family as much, which would suck, but what else?
Gas at $8/gal isn’t TEOTWAWKI
It just means a lot of bubbas and bubba wannabes won’t be able to drive their F-150’s anymore.
I’ve heard food is produced and delivered using petroleum.
The difference in fuel between the US and Europe is all taxes, so $8 might not be the end of the world, but if the equivelent of $16 is, then we’ll be sitting over here watching the outcome.
Ben — I am talking gas prices, not oil and they are different animals although gas does obviously come from oil/tar sands/oil shale.
Lots of fertilizer is derived from the Haber-Bosch process which uses nat gas. Petroleum, but not gas, is used for pesticides/fungcides and herbicides. That said, we grow most of our food, don’t use any of that stuff and the other bits that we can’t grow, we source locally. Darned chickens won’t lay yet! We’re feeding them kitchen scraps and black soldier fly larvae.
The transportation of the food will take a hit, as that definitely uses gas/diesel, but most of the energy in the life cycle of packaged consumer goods is not in the transportation phase (my former company wrote a paper on this issue). If food prices go up dramatically due to high gas prices, someone is gouging for profit.
Gas is $8/gal in Europe. They spend 25% of income on food, we pay 10%. They have less crap and drive less. I’m not saying, “Oooh, everything is great in Europe! Let’s be like them!”. I’m saying we’re not going to have a choice.
Is it just me, or is raising black soldier fly larvae to produce chicken eggs (practically the cheapest food available) rather counter productive? Do you order them in?
I do wonder about the price of food not being rather directly linked to the price of oil. Perhaps someone is gouging, as both have doubled in the past few years. Concidence?
Speaking of electricity, when are we going to slap highway fuel taxes on these guys driving around on batteries? They buy the electricity for off road use, then we get stiffed with highway maintenance. This will not end well.
“Is it just me, or is raising black soldier fly larvae to produce chicken eggs (practically the cheapest food available) rather counter productive? Do you order them in?”
I DIY’d a digester and throw all the stuff that the worms won’t eat (meat, dairy, etc.) and the adult BSF’s find me. It’s gnarly but the larvae cruise up two ramps and into the chicken run.
Eggs are cheap, but when compared to conventionally farmed eggs, they have:
• 1⁄3 less cholesterol
• 1⁄4 less saturated fat
• 2⁄3 more vitamin A
• 2 times more omega-3 fatty acids
• 3 times more vitamin E
• 7 times more beta carotene
• 4-6 times more vitamin D
They taste a lot better as well. We both love eggs, but have issues that have forced us to eat mostly egg whites. There are laws that allow pasteurized egg whites to avoid salmonella recalls when intact eggs from the same farms are destroyed.
And if you’ve been to a concentrated chicken operation, you’d think twice about ordering the chicken parm. At $0.69 a pound, many, many corners are cut (as are the beaks of the chickens — ba da bing!). There’s a good piece on it on the British “River Cottage” series.
Additionally, the chooks provide highly nitrogenous fertilizer and weed the “outback” of our yard.
I love eggs too! I buy local and they are low tech, sort of free range chickens. They yolks are a different color, so you know I get it. You have got to be serious, to raise fly larvae! Glad you do not order them in.
One of my greatest mountain man friends raised pigs on the plate scrapings of the restaurant he washed dishes at. He also ended up with a lot of forks, and a very fertile garden plot.
Because our girls aren’t laying yet, we are getting ours from the Zen Hen Hut 6 miles away. I biked up there (bad @zz hill) a few weeks ago, but the hen keeper is heading down here tomorrow, so we’re getting another dozen.
We’re not that serious, just like closing the loop since I got into industrial ecology — making waste streams into input streams. Very little outflow coming out of the BubbleDrome.
“I’ve heard food is produced and delivered using petroleum.”
Don’t forget about petroleum ingredients in fertilizers and pesticides!
You hens will start laying around Easter, Bubblez.
“Don’t forget about petroleum ingredients in fertilizers and pesticides!”
As I said above, we don’t use inorganic methods.
BJ’s operative word: Flippant
That’s precisely what that crowd is about. Inflaming and agitating, making flippant statements. The ClownCar doesn’t take anyone seriously so why should the public take them seriously? Frankly, I was hopeful of a 3rd party candidacy of Paul or someone else that crystallized the TP and OWS cause. Did you guys see that TP dude on TV the other night? Not the astro-turf TP but the real live thing. He could have been anyone one of us. Honest, truthful, posed real serious questions. I forgot his name but let me tell you something, he look into the camera and spoke to the public.
“Did you guys see that TP dude on TV the other night?”
No. What show?
It may have been Chris Matthews.
Like Nancy was guaranteed to be the one with the gavel.
FOUR MORE YEARS
it’s gonna happen, you’ll see…
I believe you are quite correct Goonster.
I think it will too.
due to the simple fact that the Republican candidates are collectively a train wreck. I don’t think (and I hear this echoed from many who identify themselves as Republican) that the Republican party has offered up anyone who looks like they can put us on any different track than where Obama is already taking us. Expenditures may head off in different directions but essentially it’s all about keeping the current system as intact as possible. I think too many people have come to understand that’s only going to lead us to eventual harm.
The squad donated money to Ron Paul and voted for Ron Paul in the Colorado caucus. But Ron Paul will not become the next president. Obama is going to WIN and the people who hate that fact should accept it
No doubt but try to resist torturing the crazies with it.
It leaves one wondering what it is going to take to actually change the course of the country. Do we have to land real hard before doing things a little differently?
“Do we have to land real hard before doing things a little differently?”
There’s a massive cognitive reboot in order at all levels: from the aristocracy to the bourgeoisie to the proletariat; from the intellectuals to the know-nothings; from the hippy-dippy environmentalists to the “Merica, love it or leave it” crowd; from the liberals to the conservatives. We’ve been asleep for years and the reveille won’t be fun, but the way people at most levels of society are acting is odious. The eventual dawn is something to look forward to, IMHO.
BTW — Snooki is pregnant! Who’s on DWTS?
“people at” = “people act at”
Looks like what is in effect a long track tornado going across Kentucky. If we have another tornado season like last year, I wonder when P & C rates are going to adjust to reflect this? Just another advantage of not being in hock to the bank - if u own your shack and don’t have the cash for the insurance man you can roll the dice and check with him again in six months - at least your not homeless short of fire or flood…
Wow!
Does this look like part of the storm that went through Illinois last night?
No it’s not. And blame Obama for the storms in Kentucky because he sent them there as payback for what Mitch McConnell said about making him a one term president.
Uh oh! I never subscribed so I only get the headlines via e-mail. Anyone else able to share the contents of this article teaser:
From the Editors of American Banker
Government Needs to Get Radical to Fix Housing
The government’s stick-a-finger-in-the-dike approach to the housing crisis isn’t working. We need more drastic solutions if we want to turn the market around. (I’m assuming the article is floating suggestions)
They will replace the “finger in the dike” plan
with a “fingers, toes, and any other protruberance available-in-the-dike” plan.
$30 TRILLION was a “finger in the dike”?!
Dear god we’re so screwed.
Here’s a radical suggestion for fixing housing: jobs that pay people enough money to buy a house.
Where did you get that $30T figure? What does it mean?
Hint, the US Government could buy up all 60 million single family homes for $200K each, and it would cost “only” $12T.
Some of the comments about Detroit hitting a bottom may be right on point. I’m on the western coast of Michigan, and things really do seem to be at a bottom here–and I am the last person that would normally ever say that. Currently, it is much, much cheaper to buy than to rent. Real estate agents are all complaining that they have no inventory to show. Double digit cap rates on rentals? How many would you like? On the low end of the market, financing is simply impossible, so buyers with cash can easily buy and make a healthy profit on a rental within a year or two.
I suspect we will see a small uptick in available properties this spring, but right now, there really isn’t much on the market in the West Michigan (Grand Rapids) area compared to historical norms. And what is available, is not expensive for what you get. You could hardly build a garage for the price psf that you can get a decent house for. I’m working on a short sale well shy of $200k for 3500+ square feet, and there are quite a few of those deals out there. It’s not exactly a brilliant “stuff your money under a mattress” move since the current house is paid for, but it’s a fantastic house and we love the place. Whether it closes this decade, who knows…
Where I see continued short-term declines is in the suburbs where gas will play an increasing role. At 17mpg and $4 a gallon, you’re looking at over $20/day just for two people to get to work. Doesn’t sound like a lot until you realize that’s about $400 a month, or almost $90k amortized into a 30 year loan. Compared to $2/gal gas, that’s about a $45,000 difference. Eventually, that’s got to hit this crap being built miles and miles out into nowhere…
It won’t make any difference no matter what people do.
Most cities don’t have real mass transit.
Most cities don’t keep their infrastructure repaired. This is the number one reason that makes the ‘burbs attractive.
Most cities charge outrageous fees and taxes for services. This is the second most important reason.
Retail prices really are cheaper outside of the major cities. This is the third most important reason.
Inner city school are mostly bad. 4th major reason.
Where I live, more and more businesses are getting smart and moving to right outside the edge of the city limits.
I hate, HATE, having to drive into the city. Bad streets, bad drivers, bad cops, bad parking and nothing beneficial to offset those factors make it not worth it.
Well that’s just the cost of fuel. there’s also the cost of maintenance, wear and tear, etc. I (unlike TL) love living in the city. I love the four-minute bike ride to work, I love driving only once a week, I love eating at a small cafe versus an Applebees, and shopping at a local merchant versus a Traget or Mao Mart, and I love the variety of people I meet in the city versus the Gernerica of the ‘burbs. Blech.
I’ll pay higher taxes (actually they’re pretty low) any day over having to live in a subdivision surrounded by strip malls. Virtually any city across the country will begin to see a resurgence - probably not widespread, but you will see pockets in Detroit (already happening), Grand Rapids, Toledo, Gary, etc.
b-ham, where do you live?
In Bellingham, WA
Bellingham has a metro area population of about 200K, 80K in the city proper. I would class it as a college town, since WWU is its largest employer.
turkey,
City taxes around here are as low as anything else, but they do take a bite with their local income taxes. Fees aren’t any worse than the ‘burbs, since the cities usually supply the #1 “fee”–water.
Suburban infrastructure? It isn’t going to last forever, either. A lot of it is starting to crumble, as it is rather expensive to maintain given the low density. You still have the same road, utility lines, sewers, etc, but much lower density to fund it. What is hammering cities is legacy costs, and that will eventually die out (quite literally).
Schools are a problem. But, here in Michigan, we have a lot of new charter schools, plus the “schools of choice” initiative. That helps. Plus, when you look at what you save on the housing and on gas, you almost save enough to fund private school out of the difference. Further, the price difference of the house itself versus the ‘burbs is now taking this into account, in most instances.
The biggest issue with cities is often the age of the housing stock, and necessary renovations. This is causing some very good things around here. In the “nice” neighborhoods, there is already next to nothing for sale, and it goes quick, except for the fixer-uppers. In a nice area without an 80% discount, a fixer can be a tough sell. But, in the next zone over, everything is getting snapped up and renovated by owners, or builders (who resell to owners–when you’ve got no work building new, you gotta do something).
In the former “subprime” areas the investors are grabbing everything at 80% discounts from bubble and throwing money at properties like there is no tomorrow. That bodes well. The crash is having a fantastic impact on the quality of the worst housing stock. Also, these sub-prime areas were the first to get hammed by the foreclosures, took the biggest hit, and there is next to no “shadow inventory” there. Those foreclosure were mostly done and over in round #1. Now, we are seeing massive amounts of investment because the prices fell so far that major renovation became affordable. Straight flipping is dead, but renovate and flip is going like crazy. Again, a lot of this seems to be going under the radar. I think most of the shadow inventory is out in the cookie-cutter ‘burbs where people hung on a bit longer.
I think b-hamster is right. A lot of younger people are going to come back to cities. That is already happening, and will continue to. The big pain to come is in the ‘burbs with round #2.
…Mao Mart…
The chairman is smiling from the grave.
rms:
“Eventually you’ll discover that a stay at home mom is cheaper in the long run…”
Cheaper, sure, but we can’t afford “cheaper” with half of our income.
Cheaper, sure, but we can’t afford “cheaper” with half of our income.
Car loans too?
Monkees singer Davy Jones complained of trouble breathing, not feeling well before dying
By Sonja Isger
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 2:02 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 29, 2012
Davy Jones, lead singer of the Monkees, has died in Indiantown of an apparent heart attack, his publicist confirms.
Martin County Sheriff’s officials say someone called paramedics at 8 a.m. to an address in the 9900 block of Southwest Fox Brown Road after Jones complained that he was “not feeling well and having trouble breathing.”
“It is quite a shock,” said Helen Kensick, Jones’ publicist of 50 years.
Kensick said Jones keeps horses in Indiantown.
In his last conversation with The Palm Beach Post in mid-February, Davy Jones was upbeat, chatting animatedly about his three 2-year-old racehorses and his wife, Jessica Pacheco, a flamenco dancer who performed in Stuart on Feb. 23.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/ - 79k
Hey, hey…
Still monkeying around!
http://tinyurl.com/7xa7bfg
Need advice:
Secretary at a school I work at mentions she is selling her house a few weeks ago. Today, tells me she hasn’t had an offer. I told her that if she wants to rent it, that we’d be happy to rent from her (3/2 in an o.k. ‘hood, close to my work/kids daycare = big gas savings). She then tells me the only problem is that they stopped paying their mortgage “a while ago.”
How could I rent from this lady? Give her, say, $500/mo. and pay the taxes? I dunno…
You’d want to figure out what “a while ago” really means. If it was recent, it might be quite a while until the foreclosure.
But there are no guarantees. Are you happy trading off a low rent (assuming that she is willing to rent it cheap) for the uncertainty of having to move on short notice? Of course, if she really wants to sell it, you’d also have to be willing to live in “show” condition, which is a major PITA.
Is there *anyone* in FL paying their mortgage?
Maybe some actually want to keep their houses?
Muggy, be careful who you enter into a contract with. It should not be someone who does not honor contracts. Bad enough for an FB to be always ready to evacuate, you don’t need that.
I’m back……emergency at the other airport. Guys couldn’t get the thrust reverser to stow.
X-GS waved his magic wand, and it seemed to fix itself. It happens. “Rebooting” works on airplanes too.
I’ve got a great 1%er joke, but I’m reluctant. I’m sure some of you would really like it, but it’s not the kind of joke I’d tell in church.
It has to do with a 1%er, a camel who requires “unique” performance incentives, and a long ride across the desert…….
Let me guess…it’s actually an allegory and we’re the camel?
Paging Alad!
“Embalmer Allegedly Stole Gold Crowns From The Dead”
http://denver.cbslocal.com/2012/02/29/embalmer-allegedly-stole-gold-crowns-from-the-dead/
Doesn’t it seem a little ridiculous to be _burying_ the gold with the cremated remains?
That’s so medieval!
If the relatives didn’t request the gold, I’m not sure I see why there was any crime there, other than him not being honest with the pawnshop owners about the source.
I spread the ashes of my best friend on the lake, where the water washes out to sea eventually. There were no gold teeth, though I know he had them. You can’t expect the embalmers/cremators to be stupid.