Jobs Cut As ‘Cancellation Rate Is Out Of Sight’: Arizona
The Arizona Republic reports on the housing bubble job scene. “Home builders are laying off construction superintendents, subdivision sales agents, finance specialists and other employees, a telling sign that metropolitan Phoenix’s new-home market has taken a radical turn from last year’s selling frenzy.”
“Builders are struggling with reduced demand brought on by skeptical buyers hit with higher prices and rising interest rates. The pileup of unsold houses helped push Valley home building down nearly 24 percent in March and more than 16 percent in the first quarter, following a record 2005.”
“Builders say they don’t have enough work for some of their workers. KB Home said it made across-the-board cuts at its Phoenix division this month. Fulton Homes recently laid off about 12 people, mostly superintendents or assistant superintendents. ‘If you aren’t going to build as many subdivisions as last year, you don’t need as many employees,’ said Jay Butler, at Arizona State University Polytechnic.”
“‘This is the beginning of a contraction in the home-building industry,’ Butler added. Housing is the Valley’s biggest industry. At least one of every $3 in the area’s economy is generated by housing, according to Republic research.”
“Some builders noted in recent quarterly reports that sales were declining in the Phoenix area. Beazer Homes said downturns in Arizona, California and Nevada came from moderating demand and delays in opening subdivisions. Pulte Homes told analysts that sales had slowed in the Phoenix area due to ‘limited availability’ of Pulte products, an increase in unsold houses and buyers’ uncertainty over price appreciation and longer selling times for resale homes.”
“‘Home builders are saying the Valley is going to be a good long-term market. In their speak, that means they are worried right now,’ said Barbara Allen, a Scottsdale based national housing analyst. Home builders in the Phoenix area can’t raise prices like they did last year and the market is slowing, she said.”
“She said, the market’s adjustment from last year’s speculator-driven pace is going to be ‘painful’ for home builders in the Valley.”
“Analyst RL Brown said builders are pouring fewer slabs in preparation for house framing, another indicator of slowing demand. He said the problem is cancellations of contracts, not lack of buyers. ‘They are writing new deals, but the cancellation rate is out of sight,’ he said.”
“According to the Arizona Association of Realtors, membership in the Glendale-West Maricopa Board of Realtors has surged 271 percent in the last five years, the largest increase of any Realtor association in the state.”
“Now that the market has leveled off, Roger Nelson, chief executive officer of the Glendale-West Maricopa Board of Realtors, anticipates a membership reduction as some new Realtors relent to the long hours, expensive marketing and heavy competition.”
“‘It was a feeding frenzy and a lot of people saw this as a way to make a quick buck,’ (realtor) Julieta Contreras said. ‘I knew it wasn’t going to stay that way because most things in real estate are cyclical.’”
‘It was a feeding frenzy and a lot of people saw this as a way to make a quick buck,’ (realtor) Julieta Contreras said. ‘I knew it wasn’t going to stay that way because most things in real estate are cyclical.’
To my knowledge not one state business leader or public official has made a move to prepare for the slowdown that even newbie realtors knew was coming.
Ben, I’m in the construction biz on the East coast and I can tell you that 8 out 10 contractors have not prepared for any type of slowdown. I could fill a page with stories of contractors who are strapped for cash even after 5 + fat years.
I’m guessing it is the same ratio with the within the army of real estate connected jobs out there as I don’t think stupidity cares what color collar it wears.
I know, it’s appalling. There is an army of contractors and those that depend on them, that live hand to mouth. No shortage of new trucks and hefty cell phone bills, though. Everyone should remember what John McCain said. He hopes for the day when the last manufacturing job leaves America!
Oh, believe me Ben! I certainly will remember what McCain has said…
I spoke with Prescott contractor this past week…out of job, no savings, he and his wife are completely freaked out…his comment was “and this is just the start”.
This AZ Republic article is notable not only for the radical change of heart, but because given their past mellow reporting on the market implosion…it’s way worse than what they’re saying.
Catherine, was there any explanation of where all the money they have made had gone?
“explanation of where all the money they have made had gone?”
Let me guess….
1. Bought new Mcmansion
2. Bought vacation home.
3. Remodel Mcmansion and vacation home with new kitchen Granite ountertops.
4. New Hummer
5. New Harley
6. New Mastercraft boat
7. New Jetski’s
8. Flatscreens in all the rooms both houses
9. New boobs for the wife
10 Escalade for wife
11 New wardwrobe for entire family
12 Refurnish both houses
13 Put in new pool and spa both houses
14 Re-landscape both houses
15 Buy 10 investment properties, IO Option arms - due to reset in 2006 and 2007 all in phoenix area
I can go on………get the picture???
you my friend, are giving your average american far too much credit.
typically, people can’t answer coherantly when you press them where their money went. they just don’t know.
Bubblebutt,
Your list just about covers it…although they passed on the boobs. Mainly, they bought more spec homes to remodel (last summer, 4 of them) and were completely SURE they would make at least 25%.
The other thing (and it’s addressed more fully on another thread) is I’m AMAZED at how many older people have COMPLETELY counted on their equity on their home financing their golden years. It’s a HUGE segment!
ben, do you have a link to that Mccain quote? I’m a little shocked he would say that.
i’m shocked, SHOCKED, to hear there is gambling in this establishment…
Mr. President, Mr. Li is on the phone. He wants the ammunition industry. Please deliver by tomorrow morning or he won’t buy your Treasuries next Thursday.
His house has been on the market for over 4 months. The last I heard, asking was 4.25 million. Recently, the sign “doubled up” with another agent. I’m guessing the primary listing agent needs help with all of their listings. Don’t know if any price reduction, but he’ll need to sell by next year so he can concentrate on the 2008 presidential campaign. He does use a white male landscaper/yard care guy. Quite an oddity in these parts.
Odd perhaps but easily explained. You won’t have any potential ‘Nanny-gate’ issues by hiring your run-of-the-mill white guy. How bad would it look in McCain’s ‘08 bid if he was found to have hired illegals?
Did you spark up a conversation with the gardener and detect an accent? He could be Romainian, Russian… Not entirely out of the woods…
was he 20-something, good-looking, clean-cut, and wearing a speedo? read David Brock’s book.
Did he realy said/mean this ?
And why?
Phoenix market MLS listings just passed 46,000!!!! (46050 to be exact).
50,000 here we come. BTW, if you add FSBOs we mayalready be well over 50,000
1/3 of state economic activity from construction?? And nobody expects a recession? Or a drop in house prices? What am I missing here?
Yes, one of every three dollars of Arizona’s economy is real estate related:
http://www.azcentral.com/specials/special50/articles/1121houseintro21.html
It feels so good when you’re high — the last thing most anyone would want to think about is coming down. Apply drugs == economic boom;
Funny, I posted early this month about the rumors of job cuts and severe meltdown leading to cancellations at KBH in AZ. Looks like the rumors are true. Too late to short?
To the contrary, the Balto area truly believes all the gov’t numbers being spewed about jobs coming to MD from BRAC (Base realignment), which hasn’t even been funded yet, and it’s at least 4 or 5 years down the road. I hear numbers such as 60K, 40K, 25K 18K about the jobs coming here. As a result,the “forecast” from the “experts” reflect insane job and income growth and a huge spike for demand in homes. This article even has this priceless quite,”One of those dynamics is the Pentagon decision to consolidate military installations, moving many of those jobs to Maryland. As many as 60,000 jobs could make their way to Maryland, a scenario that would insulate the Baltimore region from downturns experienced elsewhere in the nation.
“It’s very comforting to know those people are coming and they’re going to support home pricing,” Mr. Basu said. “Our housing price trends might become radically different from the balance of nation.”
They are basing these rosy economic forecasts on all the jobs (and we all know how reliable gov’t numbers are) and property tax revenues staying where they are right now. Nobody has even stopped to think that 1. 65% of the fed workforce can retire within 5 yrs,so how many will either take early retirement or relocate themselves first and 2. the feds are contracting out more and more positions, and there’s a good chance that many of these transferred jobs, if they make it here, will be at contractor’s wages, not fed wages.
Sad day when an area thinks that military folks can swell the local economy. As a former Jarhead myself, I can tell you there is little left from each paycheck once you pay the essentials.
However, it’s still money coming in. Many places around the country build section-8 housing with state money, and move in the trash to grow the local area economy by bringing in state welfare dollars. Walmart sells them food, huggies to $hit in, etc., and when they get into trouble stealing, drugs, wife beating, etc., they become “the chow” for the local lawyers who live off state dollars providing losers with mandated legal representation. It’s the new economy!
MD is banking on BRAC realignments that haven’t even been awarded yet? Wow. What are they smoking back east?
IOU’s just like the social security “savings.”
I’ve been warning my agency about a coming slowdown since May of last year. Instead of cutting back and making budget preparations, they’ve been on a hiring spree. I have a staff of five inspectors with a declining workload after six years of kick-a$$ development, with more being hired. Man, I love government work. I saw something bad coming last summer but didn’t exactly know what it was. Readers and writers to this blog knew full well what it was.
“‘Home builders are saying the Valley is going to be a good long-term market. In their speak, that means they are worried right now,’ said Barbara Allen, a Scottsdale based national housing analyst. Home builders in the Phoenix area can’t raise prices like they did last year and the market is slowing, she said.”
“She said, the market’s adjustment from last year’s speculator-driven pace is going to be ‘painful’ for home builders in the Valley.”
___________________________________________________
Lets give this women the Honesty Award and the paper for actually printing this. WOW!
But then again - They could have said this last year when it meant something!
The AR is the main news source for the state. We don’t have a dominate TV system because of distance. These guys have done very little but cheerlead. The only time I heard the over-reliance on RE addressed was a PBS series last summer on the housing bubble. Panelist agreed that there was no fall back employment and one said, ‘we better start thinking about retraining all those construction workers.’ And the show ended.
Retrain them to do what?
I assumed they would be used in the massive highway spending spree and pork we are supposed to embark on. Certainly Californias roads are a complete mess.
I have a friend at CalTrans whose department projects were cut back when federal highway dollars were shifted to the war on terror.
“Retrain them to do what?”
Border Patrol and Natl Guard maybe?
Kinda funny…high percentage of the contruction workers in the Phx area are Hispanic.
That’s a very good point. The guest worker program, if it gets signed, will arrive just as the need for low skill labor dries up. What happens to all those illegals when work vanishes? Crime goes up and we need to build more jails?
…and one said, ‘we better start thinking about retraining all those construction workers.’ And the show ended.
Retrain them to do what?
Why, “spread democracy,” of course. Plenty of vacancies on the Eastern Front!
Oh-oh… If jobs are disappearing, that could be bad for the housing market, right? Because every other housing crash in history took place in the wake of a jobs recession…
We have been lectured time and time again by the bulls that the housing market was in great shape, partly due to the underpinning of a strong labor market. I am reminded of one of my favorite passages from Shakespeare:
‘I pull in resolution, and begin
To doubt th’ equivocation of the fiend
That lies like truth. “Fear not, till Birnan wood
Do come to Dunsinane,” and now a wood
Comes toward Dunsinane.’
so here’s a “chicken or the egg” scenario.
which is coming first, the job losses or the housing bust?
everyone takes a hit excpt gov workers- bet on it
07 wil SCCCCCCCKK !
You assume gov workers will be safe. I’m already evaluating who in my agency will be going first.
Agreed. The budget has to come back to earth. It will cause great pain in DC.
In our agency, it appears that so many people are near retirement age anyways that they will be able to offer buyouts to encourage early retirement, and then simply fail to replace those who leave. Budget cuts will come through attrition rather than through reductions in force (”RIFs”).
include in the exception oil company employees.
My favorite quote to people blindly piling on the debt.
You are pulling a sled.
Each day more weight is added to it.
There is nothing on the horizon.
Rather like Sisyphus rolling his boulder up the side of the hill for all eternity, neh?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Myth_of_Sisyphus
To add to your metaphor…
Until one day you say, ‘Screw it,’ and just let the sled go
Those whose goods were on the sled are mad, and rightfully so
But enough folks have ditched their sleds
And the government steps in and makes all sorts of shiny new goods
And gives them out to all who ask
And, not having learned your lesson the first time, you get another sled, take the government’s shiny things, and start your voyage anew
When enough people abandoned their sleds
all the contents of each will be picked up
an placed on the sleds of those who chose more carefully
but you need to add the element of slavery into the mix.
picture ben hur chained to that oar.
(this imagery is brought to you coutesy of new bk laws and IRS 1099 reporting)
I just had to add this.
A few months back someone brought up Suze Orman and got completely flamed for it. What does Suze Orman have to do with the housing bubble? On one level everything.
The entire housing bubble could have been softened up alot or possibly prevented if people viewed debt and financial planning differently, heck understood it at all is more like it. People willing to sign-up for toxic mortgages and debt that they don’t understand and banks with non-existant lending standards willing to lend to these people are what fueled the bubble to it’s current heights. We constantly and justly poke fun at people who have bought overpriced houses with ARMs then taken out HEL and then refinanced to another ARM or option ARM so that they can afford both their overpriced house and the life style to go with it. SoCalMtgGuy built his entire blog around exposing and making fun of this type of stupidity.
This type of stupidity is what fueled the bubble and is what Suze Orman, Mary Hunt and Dave Ramsey rail against. Pick your poison for financial planning moth piece, they all say about the same thing. Debt and especialy high interest stupid debt is a bad thing. Excessive debt is to be avoided at all costs.
So make fun of me if you want. Go ahead and buy that $800k house with an option ARM even if your combined income is only $80k. Finance that Escalade your wife has to have for 7 yrs and and that new BMW for yourself. Take out a HEL because those new granite coutertops and BBQ out back are must haves, the couple down the street got theirs last month. Buy that plasma TV, your other one is a year-and-a-half old and is soooooo 2004. Go to Greece an vacation, you’ve never been there, the neighbors said it was great and last year you were stuck going to Hawaii. Everyone has been there it seems. That living room in your new, mortgaged to the hilt, house sure looks empty, I bet you could finance custom leather furniture for it. You could watch your new plama TV in comfort. And on and on and on and on.
What ever happened to living within our means and saving something? Is that something that only our grandparents did? Hey its different this time, we don’t need to. Right!
Same song as a some of my previous rantings. Somehow, as a culture, we’ve abandoned the prudent fiscal values of previous eras to be held up as an ideal. Instead the culture is no premeated with worship of instant gratification and obsessed with what we don’t have. Consumerism to replace self-virtualization. This runs deep, woven into almost all aspects of American life. For it to change, the pain will have to run deep and long first.
That’s a great post, DeepiinTheHeartOf….
to get to the change, however, I see some Darwinism first.
Survival of the fittest and smartest and most adaptable.
All others get weeded.
I believe this, seriously.
No chance. The government has this very same approach to managing $$$$$. We will se a swift bail-out program, the dollar will collapse, and everyone but the extreme wealthy will get shafted… all because of the bubble mentality.
That is an assumption that previous generations had “prudent fiscal values”. The depression was a result of excessive liquidity in the 20’s. The Crash of 1893 - excessive mortgage lending. There were at least 6 bubbles in the railroad industry. The current Bubble is just more widely reported and like previous bubbles appears to affect educated societies.
Not to go off on a totally different subject, but we just put up the current mortgage application data, which is showing no spring bounce occurring: BubbleTrack.blogspot.com
Are people seeing any change in sales or buyer interest in their areas?
Today’s edition of the Modesto Bee gives Merced, Ca’s YOY sales as down 2/3! The Central Valley in general is down 35%+. Vata Spring!
The link…
http://www.modbee.com/business/story/12204299p-12946590c.html
Sales DOWN 2/3 and they still print “Returning to a more normal market”!??!?!?!?! So what is a down turn - DOWN 100%!??!?
Went running with a close friend who sells RE in San Diego. His exact words were when I asked how business was doing: “It is so freakin DEAD” With a heavy emphasis on d-e-a-d. Nobody is buying. Period.
He is finally admitting there is a serious correction under-way. He has sold one unit in the last 60 days.
All this coming from the same person who told my fiancee and I back in 2003/2004 that “San Diego is different beacuse of blah blah blah” and this is a “new market paradigm” when I would mention “bubble” and “disconnected from fundamentals”. We are still renting our small little apartment and have a very stong positive montly cash-flow.
He is HELOC’d out the rear to pay for Giant SUV, new time-share, new giant jacuzzi and pool, 4-5 vacations a year, a home remodel and god-only-knows whatelse. They also just had their first kid.
I felt so much lighter for those last 3 miles around the lake.
He said the problem is cancellations of contracts, not lack of buyers. ‘They are writing new deals, but the cancellation rate is out of sight,’ he said.
Sounds like putting a positive spin on poor day - you know, the fishing was great but the catching was lousy. A buyer is a buyer or not. When my wife missed her second period she was pregnant, no if, ands or buts.
(To my knowledge not one state business leader or public official has made a move to prepare for the slowdown that even newbie realtors knew was coming.)
New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg has said that the city’s boom in tax revenues, which has lead to a $3.5 billion budget surplus, has been driven by an unsustainable boom in residential real estate. He has proposed using some of the surplus to pay for capital expenditures with cash rather than debt, and to create a $1 billion fund to save up for currently unfunded retiree health care.
Not enough, in my view, but something.
I meant in Arizona.
(I’m in the construction biz on the East coast and I can tell you that 8 out 10 contractors have not prepared for any type of slowdown. I could fill a page with stories of contractors who are strapped for cash even after 5 + fat years.)
I can tell you that public construction (schools, subways) has been trashed by cost over-runs, labor shortages and poor quality due to the construction boom. Lots in the pipeline, and the city will benefit if it coincides with a downturn in residential, unless falling revenues force the projects to be cancelled.
here is a 200k reduction in Palos Verdes. CA
If anyone is interested.
30157 Avenida Tranquila, Rancho Palos Verdes, 90275
$1,788,000*
Status: ACT
Orig Price: $1,988,000
Hawthorne Blvd. to Crest to Avenida Tranquila
Prop Desc: Creat your dream home with this spacious 4 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, one-level home with an open floor plan. Vaulted ceilings in the living, dining and family rooms. Magnificent views of the ocean, Catalina Island, the golf course and sunset from all major rooms. Located on a quiet cul-de-sac of country club area, the home features a gated courtyard with grassy area, flat backyard with large deck adjacent to the golf course. Interior amenities include bar and fireplace in the family room, breakfast nook, master suite with walk-in closet, newer A/C. Large windows throughout bring the beauty of your surroundings inside.
Zillow valued it at $800,000 in 2004. It has a long way to fall.
That house did not sell in 9/2004 at 1.550 million
The erosion of comps have begun in Temecula.
10% haircut on this McMansion: http://tinyurl.com/j37y8. I am not sure of the DOM (how do you find this on MLS?) It was listing at $599,900 as of last week. Every other comp is temporarily holding at $589-$599K.
It was the first significant drop of the 12 properties in Temecula I’m tracking. Several have been pulled.
No offense, but they are on glue in Temecula. Seems like everyone there has to drive to LA, SD or OC for a job. IMHO, I wouldn’t pay more than $300K for a 5/3 tract home with HOA fees there — tops. Not even a large yard or a pool. Yikes!
At least they know the price needs to be lowered!
Yes, way over priced, but Temecula is still a better place to live than Moreno Valley or Perris, IMHO.
If $1 in $3 are generated in the housing sector (obviously they are assuming multiplier effects) then the regional economy is already going to go down by 10%! with current conditions. Gasoline and electricity (8% surcharge enacted and 20% rate hike pending) will likewise eat into disposable income. This has all the hallmarks of a death spiral.
I like the term ‘cascade failure’, but death spiral works too.
[With apologies to the Great Steve Martin and the criminally overlooked performances in "Roxanne"]
Alterative:
Heterodyned Hell Hole?
Technical:
Event Horizon?
Literature:
Restaurant at the End of the Universe?
Death on Denial?
Musical:
Highway to HELOC?
Saved by Zero?
Political:
Giant Sucking Sound?
Peace in Our Time?
The Law of Obvious in Retrospect (copyright, trademark, yadda, yadda) seems in order here.
End of line.
theatrical:
night of the living debt
“He said the problem is cancellations of contracts, not lack of buyers. ‘They are writing new deals, but the cancellation rate is out of sight,’ he said.”
I am having some trouble understanding this. Let’s see, a ‘deal’ is a contract but cancellations are out-of-sight so now we have ‘no deal’. But now we are writing new ‘deals’ so we have a new deal until the contractee sees the prices dropping and then cancels and now we will have ‘no deal’. …….What he has also failed to mention was what the discount rate on the new contracts is and of course the writer doesn’t know enough to ask or is afraid of the answer.
On the plus side, he is making money on all those deposits that are being left for nothing. Sounds like a biz opportunity.
Seems that Phoenix may be ground zero for this one. I figured it was there or dear San Diego that would start to melt first. Inertial dampers to maximum Mr. LaForge!
I know we all want to spot ground zero in this upcoming nuclear winter of our discontent (whew!) but my money is on the Central Valley. When the dust settles here, and it never does, the aftereffects will be unbelieveable.
Sorry but Vegas will be very ugly. Lots of speculators own multiple homes. The average household income is in the 40s, and the average home price over 300k. Seriously, 300-400k for 1100 square feet, no yard, and a garage that is too small to hold your SUV. Leverage here is massive as everyone has a get-rich-or-die-trying, 50 cent attitude.
we need to create 2 leagues separated at the continantal divide.
the western division with phoenix, cv, lv & dtsd will compete and play the winner of the eastern division - florida, florida, nova, denver and florida
To borrow from Mr. Red Green, that should be “the winter of our discount tent”.
You get Red Green in Nevada???
We get Red Green in Texas. It’s my husband’s favorite show.
We’ll be on the way to AZ next week, moving the bear family to a new cave. Look forward to a front row seat for the implosion of the AZ market!
The employment contraction we’re seeing in housing is hitting close to home (no pun intended - ok, maybe a little one
). My company is hiring sales execs in Orlando and Nashville, and I can tell you that at least 80% (conservative) of the responses to our ads are from folks who were/are in mortgage banking, real estate sales, construction-related, or building supplies. Unfortunately, we are looking for specific experience in event management so the fit is bad for most of these folks. If we weren’t seeing it firsthand, I’d find it hard to believe. Not coincidentally, many of the applicants are young - with their work history entirely in RE. The message is that the labor market contraction is going to be a self fulfilling prophecy - brought about by the slowdown in housing. I’m wondering when we’ll start seeing these layoffs showing up in the monthly employment numbers. My guess is sooner than we expect.
If the job losses hit mostly the young adults, maybe they can move back in with their parents… (only half-joking)
The parents are financing their lifestyle with their earned “equity” and will have to downsize to accomodate the new lifestyle once the “equity” is gone! Kids can sleep in the sofa in the small living room, while they look for Public Assistance.
No! They can’t! That have to support that 30% increase in rents that’s coming to bail me out!
“1/3 of state economic activity from construction?? And nobody expects a recession? Or a drop in house prices? What am I missing here?”
Can anyone provide a link verifying 1/3 of AZ economic activity is from construction? Thanks
http://www.azcentral.com/specials/special50/articles/1121houseintro21.html
Just saw this on WSJ:
Florida Condo Crash?
May 19, 2006 10:44 a.m.
Send suggestions and tips to marketbeat@wsj.com. Find this feature every day at WSJ.com/marketbeat.
10:44 a.m.: There’s an interesting note out of JMP Securities documenting the coming implosion of the Florida condo market. It’s not news, particularly, but the declines cited are startling — JMP estimates that condo sales in Florida were down 23% year-over-year in March, and homebuilder WCI Communities reported high-rise tower orders were down 71% year-over-year in the first quarter. The analyst notes that this is bearish for WCI Communities and Toll Brothers. But it’s also bearish for Corus Bankshares, which is based in Chicago, but has massive exposure to loans made in the Florida condo market. “From our own observations as well as conversations with local brokers and sales people, it is apparent that the Florida new condo market, and in particular Miami, is in a lot of trouble,” JMP analysts wrote.
We are back to some Yield curve Inversion. This time at much higher rates. 07 recession??
My guess is that it will fully invert by the time the Fed raises again on June 29th (my guess is based on current economic information).
Put this down on your calendar everyone.
Not investment advice though!
I’m amazed that long bonds haven’t equilibrated to the new short rates. That’s gotta be a helluva demand keeping them in place. Definitely into “conundrum” territory still.
The long bonds are low because buyers are expecting a recession. My guess is that they will probably go even lower.
Greenspan disputes house collapse predictions.
http://dcbubble.blogspot.com/2006/05/one-economist-warns-of-condo-price.html
DC-BUBBLE-BUTT
You are truly an idiot. Do you really think Greenspan would say anything different? Do you really think that even if he knows its in the works, stand up and say to the media, “housing is going to collapse”? Use your brain and stop regurgitating sound bites from cheerleaders… Ben can you ban him? He is so freakin annoying!
Oh right. Greenspan the coward.
Mojo do you remember when Greenspan said that “irrational exuberance” caused the stock market to become way overvalued.
But that was stock and this is real estate. Very. Very. Different. You are so insightful and correct.
LOL! The irrational exuberance comment he made he later said he regretted uttering. I do respect Greenspan in not trying to move markets with his speeches. These new chumps at the helm just don’t know when to shut the hell up. Way too many speeches and commentaries by Fed heads lately.
Way too many people paying attention to them. Let them squawk.
The bum on the corner can also give financial advice. The difference? Not a whole hell of a lot except he’s not on CNN.
Why does Greenspam remind me of Kofi Annan?
Oh yeah…they both head irrelevent and ineffectual entities.
hey, for 200k per speech. he will say whatever his audience wants to hear.
i agree. why do these guys open their mouths? i would like the chairman of the Fed to be like one of those old stodgy bankers from old movies who just “harumphs!” every now and then, smokes a cigar, and raises or lowers interest rates as he chooses, when asked why, he says ” because i’m the Chairman, THAT’S why. Now get back to work!”
Greenscum saying the bubble is going to crash? He is the major cause of this bubble.
second that n2lc!
Right. He was a chicken on the way down, 25bpt at a time, and a chicken on the way back up. 25bpt moves don’t even show up for well over a year, which adjusts to market conditions that no one can even foresee. Now, 100bpt moves and stopping, that would halt a bubble in its tracks.
Rather like Sisyphus rolling his boulder up the side of the hill for all eternity, neh?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Myth_of_Sisyphus
—————————————————————————-
How bout “Realtyphus” ….forever condemned to host empty open houses?