Bits Bucket for March 27, 2012
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Trade Imbalances:
In a “free market”, goods are exchanged for other goods or assets in a non-zero sum manner. The expected utility that each party receives from the goods or assets they trade for are greater than what they trade away. As China engages in trade with the United States trading cheaply made goods for US dollars, the Chinese are supposedly rationally taking a greater expected utility by holding US dollars than the goods which they (the Chinese) produce. Since the US dollar is not backed by gold or silver, the Chinese are banking paper that is the “good faith” of the US monetary, legal, and social systems. I’m glad that the Chinese still have faith in us.
As the expected utility of the US dollar diminishes, we should expect our foreign trade partners to want less and less dollars and more of something else. What is the something else that they will want? (Food?) To me, it seems the Chinese are counting on low inflation numbers to maintain the value of their dollar holdings. It seems to me you can either go with the Chinese and be in on the dollar, or you can go against them betting they will get screwed by the bankers the same way the rest of the US working stiffs have. I think I’ve kind of learned that the bankers have been winning, and the Chinese are the next sheep to get sheared.
Since the Chinese are looking for low inflation, it seems that the bankers (Fed) will continue to play asset buying games to keep “economic inflation” low while massively inflating the money supply on their balance sheet, then transferring inflated dollars to the Chinese in the form of treasuries. Meanwhile, money in the street is drying up as all the leveragable “assets” are going to the central bank(deleveraging). This is keeping unemployment high, and wages are stagnating and shrinking, pushing a higher “economic burden” onto the working class and helping to reign in that “economic inflation” as opposed to money supply inflation.
The next shoe to fall is already being publicized… now that the Fed, Fannie and Freddie own all your homes (mortgages) they are going to kick you out of them and sell them for pennies on the dollar in bulk to “investors” (read big banks). After this process is complete, *then* the assets will be out of the hands of the Fed and into private hands, and the Fed will unleash the money torrent that is massive inflation… At this point, the chinese will panic and dump their money on the market which will be throwing gasoline on the fire. I don’t know how to read what will happen to stock prices, but I imagine indexed for inflation it will terrible, despite incredible price gains.
Strangely, I’m fine with all this.. I expect my standard of living will decline drastically, but it’s kind of like expecting to get the rent bill. It’s going to be due and I know it needs to get paid regardless if my 10 million deadbeat California neighbors are leeching off me or not. The only thing I really worry about is this: will the Chinese view the bankers actions as premeditated economic warfare and start a real war with us that REALLY screws our world up, or will they just recede into the massive poverty that will surely come about, whimpering and hiding like a starving animal through their economic domino downfall? I *really* hope we can get some anti-war types in charge by that point.. lord knows Bush or Obama’s vision of peace wouldn’t keep us out of that kind of mess.
What if the Chinese government has obligations way exceeding their pile of cash, like everybody else in the world?
Mathguy,
Did you write this or or should it be attributed to someone else?
I take the blame.
It’s a compliment, mathguy. It was well-written enough for us to think it was professionally produced.
Yes. Interesting stuff mathguy.
“I don’t know how to read what will happen to stock prices, but I imagine indexed for inflation it will terrible, despite incredible price gains.”
Prediction: cap gains exclusion for real estate will apply to the new landlords, and cap gains/income taxes for 401ks etc will rise to non-401k parity for “fairness” and “to save social security”.
So you think they are going to eliminate the primary residence requirement for the cap gains exclusion on the sale of a home? Just for landlords or just for landlords that bought at least x number of units through the program? Really?
Your second prediction doesn’t even make sense. 401k monies are taxed at ordinary income rates, not the preferential capital gains rates. Unless you think that ROTH IRA money will be taxed? Not likely. Not now that they have allowed the 1%ers to pay the taxes on regular accounts to convert them into ROTH.
Hi Polly:
I’m not sure if I’m reading this right, but I think he (assumed from name) means 401(k) withdrawals would be taxed at the capital gain rates instead of the ordinary income rates. Which would prod people into investing more into retirement accounts (tax deductible at entry, best rates at exit!) thus helping SS.
Of course, I think there would be a lot less ROTH contributions/rollovers which would affect gov’t income today.
NY state looking to tap into the private pension / 401K cash cow.
New Ideas on Pensions: Use States
NY Times
As growing numbers of baby boomers face retirement with inadequate savings, some state officials are considering a novel proposal to rebuild America’s ailing retirement system — having state pension funds run retirement plans for companies.
John Liu, New York City’s comptroller, said better retirement plans from companies might ease the city’s strain in the future.
Because more companies are ditching their own pension plans or not offering retirement benefits at all, the idea would be to give companies an easy way to offer a firm pension without having to run the plan themselves.
On Monday, the labor economist Teresa Ghilarducci, who developed the proposal, held a public forum at the New School for Social Research with New York City’s comptroller, John Liu. The forum explored whether companies might want to start offering pensions through a pooled system run by the Bureau of Asset Management, a unit of the comptroller’s office.
Mr. Liu said he was interested because New York City was in “the early stages of a burgeoning retirement crisis,” where more than a third of all retirement-age households had nothing to rely on except Social Security.
He said that more elderly people were turning up in the city’s homeless shelters and that a program to make it easy for employers to offer better retirement benefits might reduce future strain. Lawmakers in Connecticut and California have introduced bills to either study or create such a program and the Pennsylvania state Treasurer has expressed interest, although he has no power to introduce legislation himself. Mr. Liu said he had talked to lawmakers, but had no firm legislative plans.
At the heart of the proposal is something called a cash-balance pension, a hybrid that combines features of a 401(k) plan with those of a traditional pension plan. Workers can watch their benefits grow each year as an account balance, but the assets that secure the benefits are held in a pooled trust.
The structure could be attractive because it would be flexible — employers could reduce the rate of increase during recessions, saving money and reducing the chance of a runaway pension obligation. But the idea could be controversial, because the role of managing the money would fall to state pension systems, now under fire in many places for their handling of city and state workers’ pensions. Republicans have tended to see the idea as one more manifestation of “big government.”
Ms. Ghilarducci said that the survey research she commissioned showed that small business owners in particular wanted a better option. They feared taking on big legal liabilities if they ran their own retirement plans but expected to be hit with hidden fees if they gave the job to an outside vendor.
NY state looking to tap into the private pension / 401K cash cow.
Interesting. After reading this, I have to wonder who is tapping into whom. The answer is: both are tapping into China.
NOW: State pensions collect and manage 401K money now, which they use the debt hole and to pay current retirees.
LATER: Private company employees try to collect the retirement that they let the state manage for them. They find that the state blew all the money and can’t pay. State asks DC for a bailout. DC borrows money from China to bail out states to pay future retirees.
Got canned peas and AK-47’s?
I wonder what the life expectancy of a homeless elderly person is. Will reduced life expectancy for poor seniors be enough to save Social Security?
Coming soon in the details of Paul Ryan’s new budget plan
Under Obamacare, it would be shorter than you think. Even for non-homeless old people. Old people are worth less to the government than younger people, who have many more years of taxes to pay.
“Under Obamacare, it would be shorter than you think.”
What aspects of Obamacare reduce life expectancy for seniors?
Hopefully Happy WE will be able to choose our own end of life…
Look If i have very little going on in my life…family gone or not close by, why should I impose on them or force someone under medicare/mediciaid and pay them $8 hr to wipe my butt?
Maybe by that time…there isn’t much of a quality of life…so where is my Kevorkian when I need him?
All we need is for Polly to come up with some way the doctors cant get sued or arrested.
“Hopefully Happy WE will be able to choose our own end of life…
Look If i have very little going on in my life…family gone or not close by, why should I impose on them or force someone under medicare/mediciaid and pay them $8 hr to wipe my butt?”
I agree with you that there are fates worse than death. And I would hope to be able to exercise my own version of a Kevorkian option if the time comes when that is preferable.
Unfortunately, sometimes mental capacity goes first and I may end up in a situation where I cannot even choose a Kevorkian option (e.g. Terry Schiavo). Who chooses then? Is indefinite maintenance the right choice?
With all of the fuss about abortion and death panels, I think this will be a hard sell to the right-to-lifers.
Obamacare death panels = gov bureaucrats kill granny
InsuranceCo death panels = invisible hand of free market
Teresa Ghilarducci
Isn’t she the one who proposed the govt offer to take 401ks and replace them with annuities?
dont know it might work backwards…they oppose abortion to give that fetus a chance on life, but when life is essentially over they might end the suffering, by letting it go early.
We cant tax people enough to keep 10-20-50 million old zombies alive..
With all of the fuss about abortion and death panels, I think this will be a hard sell to the right-to-lifers.
“dont know it might work backwards…they oppose abortion to give that fetus a chance on life, but when life is essentially over they might end the suffering, by letting it go early.”
Based on the response of Republicans in Congress to the Terry Schiavo case, I suspect you are wrong. And I think the Catholic church would be against any such move in end of life decisions. They are more consistently pro life than some of the evangelicals, opposing the death penalty in addition to abortion.
There are significant ethical questions in end of life counseling. Is a disinterested third party truly disinterested? Are family members (heirs or caregivers) advocating for an end of life decision based on what is best for the patient or their pocketbooks? Is the patient competent to make a decision? If not, who makes the decision for them?
There are also significant ethical questions in abortion decisions. Should a person be allowed to produce as many offspring as they choose and offload the responsiblility for raising them to society? If the law requires that a pregnancy be carried to term, do we have a responsibility to provide prenatal care for the unborn? If the baby is born with significant medical issues, is it right for the parents to abandon them to the care of society if they are unable to provide for its medical needs? If the mother dies due to an ectopic pregnancy or fetal death, does society then have a responsibility to support her previous children?
These are thorny issues. It should not be surprising that there are disagreements about them.
Please don’t put the burden on someone else to help you end your life, unless you’re unconscious or so paralyzed you can’t do it yourself. If that other person is not a soul-less Kevorkian, it will likely have a serious impact on their mental well-being.
I’ve heard stories about how train engineers are affected by someone jumping in front of the locomotive they’re operating.
“Please don’t put the burden on someone else to help you end your life, unless you’re unconscious or so paralyzed you can’t do it yourself. If that other person is not a soul-less Kevorkian, it will likely have a serious impact on their mental well-being.
I’ve heard stories about how train engineers are affected by someone jumping in front of the locomotive they’re operating.”
Agreed. That would be irresponsible and cruel. I was thinking more along the lines of going river running alone or taking a long winter hike.
I am not close to making such a decision and would be worried that I might botch the attempt and end up worse than before. Intractable pain could take me there. Physical incapacity would probably not. And mental incapacity would leave me incapable of it.
Thats why Kevorkian had the right idea…all his patients were terminal…so how much more of “life” was there left?
But doesn’t it get to the quality of life? If you are on such strong pain medication you are not really functional?
What I want for ME goes beyond the do not resuscitate this is actually pulling the plug, or injecting me with enough to stop my heart…at a time I choose..
——
Physical incapacity would probably not. And mental incapacity would leave me incapable of it.
Liu’s proposes a two tier pension system. A rich tier for public employees, financed by private taxpayers, and a poor tier for private sector workers, financed by private taxpayers.
Since the Chinese are looking for low inflation
The Chinese have been “re-balancing” their currency reserves, reducing US dollar exposure, for some time. They are also investing heavily in commodities and commodity-rich countries.
There have been articles recently on Zerohedge that discuss the potential devaluation of the yen, predicted at 40%, in the very near term along with the popping of the JGB bubble. The Chinese are warning investors to prepare for this event. If they are on top of the Japanese economic situation (4th largest economy in the world), I’m quite sure they are watching the US economic situation (largest economy in the world) and preparing accordingly.
will the Chinese view the bankers actions as premeditated economic warfare and start a real war with us
The Chinese would not start a war with the US. Technologically, they are way behind:
*Nukes… the US has thousands, the Chinese have hundreds.
*Carriers… the US has 11 Supercarriers, the Chinese have 1 surplus Russian carrier as a testing/training platform.
*Gen 5 fighters… the US has F-22 Raptors and soon the F-35 Lightning as well as prior gen F-117 and B-2 stealth platforms. The Chinese have no stealth technology fielded to date.
* War-time experience… the US has been in a constant state of war for 10 years, with all the hard-earned experience that brings with it, including veteran leaders. The Chinese have no practical modern war-fighting experience. There is a learning curve in war and it is a bloody one…
They are pretty well matched and positioned to fight themselves though.
You fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is “never get involved in a land war in Asia”.
…and the other, “Never carry a weasel in your pants”.
While I don’t doubt the veracity of the claim to never carry a weasel in your pants, I think the proper response is
“Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line”!
Actually, you are right, NE.
“The Chinese would not start a war with the US. Technologically, they are way behind:”
Give them half a century or so…
“Give them half a century or so…”
My, oh my, look at all them Wal-Mart$ Jethro!
Of course, you can fight an undeclared war, using free market rhetoric to camoflage the fact that you are undermining the industrial base of your opponent, and, if you play your cards right, stir up a bunch of internal dissent and turmoil.
The beauty of this plan is all it takes to implement is money, and, as Marx (or Lenin or someone) said, the willingness of you opponent to sell you the rope you use to hang him.
This is where free market theory fails. Unlike us, there are many countries where political and strategic calculations have as much to do with trade policy as anything.
US trade policy basically gives the 1%ers all the benefits of “Free trade” at the expense of everyone else. Which, coincidentally seems to be US government policy on about everything.
Winning without firing a shot is the most prized victory.
“Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.
The best victory is when the opponent surrenders of its own accord before there are any actual hostilities… It is best to win without fighting.” — Sun Tzu
you can fight an undeclared war, using free market rhetoric to camoflage the fact that you are undermining the industrial base of your opponent
I think the Chinese value us more as customers of their goods than enemies to be plunged into economic chaos… at least until domestic demand is high enough in China. Like Cantankerous said, give it another 50 years.
Having said that, the Japanese believe business is warfare, and that translates to economics on a larger scale. Free traders are globalists by another name and that means they hold no particular allegiance to national interests. The end of “free-trade” and the resurgence of fair-trade can’t come soon enough…
Think of a nuclear pearl harbor.
You could be pretty far behind before the war and dead even after the first round.
It’d be mutual destruction, but once you have a lot of nukes and have cargo ships and the element of supprise I doubt you can say you are light years behind. Why do you think Iran want’s them.
Why bother w/the nuclear option when you can pull a Reagan and just scare your enemy into spending themselves into collapse?
Why bother w/the nuclear option when you can pull a Reagan and just scare your enemy into spending themselves into collapse?
You’re much closer to the truth than you think… i.e. today the US is playing the role of the Soviet Union and spending itself right into collapse while everyone fears China “catching up”.
I would not be surprised to learn that the leadership of China had studied the fall of the Soviet Union and learned a thing or two from it. It would seem the US learned nothing but hubris at defeating it’s decades-long enemy with economics rather than military might.
Did I sound like I was joking?
See; Osama bin Ladin, who followed America’s Soviet strategy to a “t” and bankrupted the USA. USA. USA….
They have a manned space program. They are NOT, “far behind”.
All they really lack is a large number of aircraft carriers and subs.
And they are working on the aircraft carriers.
In a nuke exchange, our carriers won’t count for squat.
Frankly, I can develop a strategy to defeat the US without a shot being fired.
First of all, by recognizing that you don’t have to invade or destroy the USA; all you need to do is keep the US from interfering with your political/economic plans. The USA has nothing that can’t be had from somewhere else in the world.
China, for example, is a lot closer geographically to the world’s major sources of energy than the US is.
Given a choice, China would rather see political and economic instability in the US and Europe than in China. Or, if the sheeple stay sheeple, deal with the US government oligarch-to oligarch. They all speak the same language.
They have a manned space program.
We had one of those in the 60’s… even went to the moon. I have yet to hear of any similar exploits by the Chinese program.
They are short of aircraft carriers, subs, nukes, Gen 5 fighters, etc. Their conventional arms are not battle-tested, nor are their military personal. Even something as straightforward as Main Battle Tanks are suspect. The two gulf wars showed that Soviet/Russian tanks were at least a generation or two behind the M1A2 Abrams. We’re talking hit survivability, real-time battle information networks (not just radio-nets), and all-weather/night-time kill capability… Abrams are notoriously hard to kill, as the real combat statistics show. T-72’s and T-80’s, not so much. The Chinese have nothing new or novel, just what they have copied from the Russians. The only area they are our equal is missile tech.
And they are working on the aircraft carriers.
There is a reason the US Navy is the only navy in the world that can perform and sustain night launch and recovery operations, allowing for 24×7 CAP/CAS. No other country has the experience, knowledge, and training built up over 50 years of night carrier operations.
All this talk about China (never seems to end)…I have NO concern about China.
China is fooked. Big time fooked.
Why?
Demographics. They created their own looming cross-generational disaster.
India is more interesting long-term from a global influence standpoint.
All these people assume china has to come here for us go to war with them. They’ve got plenty of places they can wreak havoc…forcing us to go there…I’m sure our military industrial complex would love nothing more.
All these people assume china has to come here for us go to war
Why would I assume that? If China wanted to go to war with the US tomorrow, they could just invade Taiwan. The fact that China pursues a diplomatic and economic policy towards reunification with Taiwan says much about China’s faith in its ability to project force close to the mainland.
Modern warfare, and by extension international politics, is about the projection of force. Something that our carriers and bases throughout the world allow us to do very well. Not so much with China currently…
China has successfully sent probes to the moon, built a small and currently operational space station which they will man in just a few months and then expand it and they also keep a fleet of their own GPS, GEOS and com system sats in orbit.
They have successfully intercepted one of their own satellites in orbit in a demonstration of anti-sat warfare.
They have a more robust space program than the Russians.
WE are resting on our laurels.
USN vs global pandemic. Who wins?
All your T-543’s and M-962’s won’t be for Jack if one little bug mutates the wrong way because our “defense” department is fixated on their stupid war toys and not cooperative international scientific research.
China is the least of the USA’s worries these days.
“will the Chinese view the bankers actions as premeditated economic warfare and start a real war with us that REALLY screws our world up.”
Worst case scenario is not a nuclear war. It is the nationalization of assets held by Americans and U.S. corporations in China.
It is the nationalization of assets held by Americans and U.S. corporations in China.
Anyone who holds their assets there, and thinks that they are safe, deserves what they get.
Anyone who holds their assets there, and thinks that they are safe, deserves what they get.
+1
This has already happened many times. Just not to the big boys… yet.
As the expected utility of the US dollar diminishes,
US dollar utility falls relative to what? The Euro? Gold? The Renminbi?
As far as currencies, why would the dollar fall more than the Reminbi?
I can see real assets going up but those real assets will be bought with currencies. China and the world will dump all currencies?
“I think I’ve kind of learned that the bankers have been winning, and the Chinese are the next sheep to get sheared.”
Last I heard, those supposedly-worthless dollars could still be used to buy hard assets (e.g. gold, natural resources, real estate, sovereign debt), which comes in handy when you are trying to diversify your portfolio. It’s also worth noting that the Chinese have been big holders of dollar-denominated debt in recent years; weren’t U.S. Treasurys the best-performing U.S. dollar-denominated asset class last year?
ft dot com
March 28, 2012 12:13 am
The great leap abroad
By Leslie Hook
Not too long ago, Chinese companies were considered an afterthought when bankers were compiling buyer lists for deals.
But now the world is increasingly turning to China for capital, whether it is eurozone nations asking the country to buy their bonds or capital-hungry US energy companies looking for investors.
The shift was most clearly illustrated when the debt-laden government of Portugal put two energy assets on the auction block last year as part of its debt-reduction programme. The assets – a stake in EDP, the utility, and another in REN, the electricity transmission business – were hotly contested by global bidders, but in both cases ultimately won by Chinese state-owned groups.
China has invested more than $230bn in outbound merger and acquisition deals in the past five years, more than half of which has been in natural resources such as mining, oil and gas.
“China’s outbound investments have grown steadily over the past five years, and the trend will accelerate as increasingly sophisticated Chinese corporations continue to take advantage of what is, in many areas, a buyer’s market,” says Zhang Xiuping, co-head of Asia M&A at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the investment bank.
…
‘The next shoe to fall is already being publicized… now that the Fed, Fannie and Freddie own all your homes (mortgages) they are going to kick you out of them and sell them for pennies on the dollar in bulk to “investors” (read big banks).’
Is there anything stopping the Chinese from getting in on the FFF real estate fire sale action?
I suspect a redo of how we dealt with the Japanese trade imbalance in the mid-1980’s. Sell them more and more vastly-overpriced commercial American real estate (Pebble Beach, Wilshire Blvd.,) then let the resulting bubble pop.
Nice eval, mathguy.
Saw my first auction sign of the season yesterday. Not a McMansion. Actually a home in a very moderate neighborhood (Sub to minimally $200k) that wasn’t even really up to the standard of the homes around it.
There’s a healthy handful of empty home photos popping up on the MLS. This year these prices are going to help bring the market down. Many are priced for quick sale. So I guess that NY fast track foreclosure story has some legs. This sampling does appear to hit all price niches. It’s funny that the realtors always describe the owner as just being transferred. We do appear to run into an inordinate amount of “owners divorcing” situations. Maybe we’re just looking at a niche primarily owned by people at the age where these things happen but can’t help but feel the economy is playing its part.
There are still some crazy wishing prices out there. I guess these people believe our market has bottomed out and it’s now the proper time to collect. After April 1st we should really see what the season will offer. The whole local buying season revolves around the school calendar and it’s exacerbated by the fact the retired set doesn’t move when there’s a chance of snow.
There are still some crazy wishing prices out there. I guess these people believe our market has bottomed out and it’s now the proper time to collect.
I’m seeing new listings in upstate that are higher than the peak prices of late 2006. This demonstrates the thinking by the public is completely detached from reality.
When I bought my first house, the story on the previous owner was that he was a Vietnam Vet who died after long illness from Agent Orange exposure. I guess that’s about the same as “he was transferred.”
In my nabe, the Agent Orange vet signed up for some sort of jiggy mortgage and ended up losing the house. We suspect that he had refinanced, and that his judgement wasn’t the best. Guy was one heckuva great neighbor and we miss him.
House was bought at an inflated price back in ‘07 and appears to be headed for foreclosure. People come around now and then, but no one appears to be living there. And I don’t think that the family that bought it in ‘07 could ever afford it.
CarrieAnn
Great post and insight. Just curious, do “they” list homes low to create a bidding war in your area? Popular modus operandi in my area of So Ca.
This appears to be standard operating procedure in Nor Cal as well, for what it’s worth. This is usually just for short sales though.
This appears to be standard operating procedure in Nor Cal as well, for what it’s worth. This is usually just for short sales though.
In San Francisco, this is very common, and not just for short sales.
Would listing below market value and sparking a bidding war result in a better or worse outcome for the seller than listing high and gradually reducing the price?
I suspect starting low and generating a bidding war will result in a MUCH faster sale.
I did answer you this morning Awaiting. It looks like it never came through. Yup we do see that locally. I noticed you and I and a few other posters report similar things which just goes to show you real estate is only somewhat local when you’ve got the entire FIRE economy working to manipulate the results.
Realtors Are Liars®
Got chervil?
“Have you seen any of those Chihuahua-sized rats?”
No, but my parents are completely freaked out by this:
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/03/23/2710281/keys-crocodile-swoops-pet-dog.html
Why are they freaked out? I’ve often heard gators will snatch (swoop?) dogs from the water’s edge. Is it because this was a salt-water croc, and the attack occurred around sea water?
can we figure out how to blame the OhbaHma environmentalists on this? The crocs must have “free range” so humans stay away from your 300 foot high priced docks.
Nah, it George Bush’s fault - he wouldn’t fund Planned Parenthood when they wanted to branch out into providing animals with free contraception…
I saw some pretty big rat creatures in the bayou, and a beaver that must have been over 35 pounds.
Floridians…
‘The new owner of what might be the world’s most expensive Cheeto is Key West radio-station group 96.7-FM and 101.7-FM. The station had the top bid — $100 — for a seahorse-shaped Cheeto on eBay. Virginia resident Richard Schmidt sold it this past week to benefit Reef Relief, a Key West environmental group. ‘It wasn’t the thousands my wife and I had hoped for but it certainly set a world record as the most expensive Cheeto in history,’ McClatchy-Tribune quoted Schmidt as saying’
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/03/26/2714452/cheeto-shaped-like-seahorse-sells.html#morer#storylink=cpy
Florida gets all the cool food stuffs.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6511148/ns/us_news-weird_news/t/virgin-mary-grilled-cheese-sells/#.T3HhW45hTdA
I ever tell you guys about the VMGC Barbie I made as an homage to same? It was the BOMB!!!
http://egregores.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/virginbarbie1.gif
I always wondered how they ship stuff like this without breaking it.
Not to pic nits but beavers get to be 66lbs.
It just looked huge compared to the garden variety Appalacian beaver.
I was once walking along the Owens River with a 150lb Neufoundland on my left heel and a 50lb beaver joined us and walked at my right heel. This lasted for about 100 yards till the beaver quietly slipped back into the river and the Newf never reacted.
Farmland prices still rising
A $13,000-an-acre sale in Christian County last fall was the latest sign the record run-up in Illinois farmland prices has a ways to go, based on a sales-trend update released this week.
The average price for all types of land was $7,330 per acre for 2011, up 21 percent compared with 2010, according to the annual report from the Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers.
“A good part of this tremendous move in Illinois cropland values is based on increasing farm income returns and expectations of strong income into the future,” survey general chairman Don McCabe said in the report.
Prime land sold for about $10,500 an acre, good land at nearly $7,500 and average land at a little more than $7,300 an acre.
Farmland prices in Illinois have increased an average of 12 percent a year since 2005.
“Farmland prices in Illinois have increased an average of 12 percent a year since 2005.”
Coming $oon: Woe’$ & pity’$ to the poor American CorporationInc. Farmer$, someone best find a Willie Nelson look-alike, & a tour bu$. :-/
[ y'all want to see how a "Auction" works for real$, then just get out there and attend one of these in a winter-of-di$content]
Their is some sweet irony in the notion that the brothers from other mothers will ‘take control’ of their ‘libertarian think tank.’
Got propaganda?
Posted at 03:24 PM ET, 03/22/2012
Koch brothers vs. Cato: David Koch says Crane’s strategy is ‘Rule or Ruin’
By Allen McDuffee
In what has seemed to be a brief lull in the ongoing battle between the Cato Institute and billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch for control of the libertarian think tank, a new statement has been issued by David Koch, who has remained silent since a lawsuit was filed.
David Koch, who has remained silent since the battle became public earlier this month, has issued a nine page statement as a response to a lengthy March 12 communication from Cato Chairman Bob Levy.
In it, Koch insists that neither he nor his brother, Charles, demanded that Cato become active in partisan activity, as Levy asserted in his statement.
“As an example, I mentioned a group with which I am involved – Americans for Prosperity,” said Koch. “ I believe AFP has done a good job of turning concepts into concrete deliverables, but it is just one example of such an organization. I never asserted that Cato should be directed by, or at the whim of, any other organization, or that they should aspire to advocate the way AFP does.”
…
“…or that they $hould a$pire to advocate$ the way AFP doe$”
This $tatement from a $uffering $o, & his deep, agonizing concern$ for the peon-citizen’s-workers of America.
“Americans for Prosperity” = “Let me $pit$ in yer eyes and see what yous gonna do ’bout’s it. [$nickering]“
Libertarian think tank?
Isn’t that an oxymoron?
“Bootstraps”, “rugged individualism”, “free markets”, “American exceptionalism”, et cetera…
And “job creators!” How could you forget them, goon squad?
Oxymoronica: “take control of libertarian think tank”
We have a winner!
I just love those high gas prices — not! Thanks to the steep increase in delivery costs, my “four-buck Chuck” now costs $7 — over my $5/bottle budget limit for wine.
It seems like markets everywhere smell QE3 in the air.
Crude ends higher as Bernanke view lifts markets
A motorist holds a fuel pump at a Gulf petrol station in London in this April 18, 2006 file photo. REUTERS-Luke MacGregor-Files
A driver pumps petrol into his car at a petrol station in Brussels March 8, 2011. REUTERS-Yves Herman
Pedestrians walk near a gas station in Tokyo March 15, 2012. REUTERS-Toru Hanai
NEW YORK | Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:31pm EDT
(Reuters) - Crude futures edged up on Monday as comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reinforced expectations that interest rates will be kept low and as strong gasoline futures provided lift to the oil complex.
Bernanke said the U.S. economy needs to grow more quickly to bring the unemployment rate down further, defending the central bank’s policy of very low interest rates.
While he gave no indication the Fed intended to start on a third round of bond purchases, Bernanke also made clear the central bank is in no rush to reverse course after responding aggressively to a deep recession.
Bernanke’s comments weighed on the dollar by reinforcing hopes for more quantitative easing and lessening expectations that interest rates might be raised any time soon.
Ahead of weekly reports on U.S. oil inventories, crude stocks were expected to have risen last week, a Reuters survey of analysts showed on Monday.
Distillate inventories were expected to be unchanged, while gasoline stocks were forecast to be lower as refiners draw down winter grade fuel ahead of summer.
FUNDAMENTALS
* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude rose 16 cents, or 0.15 percent, to settle at $107.03 a barrel, having traded from $106.19 to $107.32.
…
“over my $5/bottle budget limit for wine.”
With all due respect, Canty, I’d rather drink the $28 bottle of wine once a month and go without the rest of the time.
The way things are going I guess I may have to turn my bike into a daily commuting vehicle and treat my gasoline purchases the same way I do the wine.
I believe you could go from $7 to $14 a bottle and more than double the quality. It’s the nature of markets these days — getting squeezed from below by the Fed’s printing press and from above by a shrinking upper class.
Would you please recommend a good red wine?
Thank you in advance.
I don’t drink good red wine. FPSS is your man for this kind of question.
But I did finally snap up some cheap red wine for $4.99 at Trader Joe’s today. It’s called Terrenal (Cabernet Sauvignon), from Spain, bottled in 2010, and not half-bad for the price.
The economy is not going to grow faster on higher energy costs.
“Don’t be economic girly man” - the Governator
Boosted By Bernanke, Stocks Overlook Housing Data
March 26, 2012
4:09 PM, Mar 26, 2012 –
U.S. stocks soared in Monday’s session after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled the central bank is committed to a monetary policy that will help buoy the stock market.
In an address to the National Association for Business Economics, Bernanke also offered a positive take on current unemployment problems in the U.S., saying today’s high jobless rate is the result of cyclical problems rather than more permanent causes.
Bernanke’s comments kept stocks trading higher despite soft data released today on home sales. The National Association of Realtors said on Monday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in February, slipped 0.5 percent to 96.5, continuing a string of lower sales for the month following an unexpectedly strong January. Economists polled by Reuters had expected signed contracts to climb 1.0% last month.
…
Nope. No corporate welfare here!
Bernanke speech lifts hopes of further quantitative easing, boosting markets
Federal Reserve chairman says US economy needs to grow more quickly to lift employment levels
Hopes of further action by the US Federal Reserve to boost the country’s economy have given a lift to stock markets.
In a speech to the National Association for Business Economics - not necessarily the most predictably market moving venue - Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke warned the world’s largest economy needed to grow more quickly to create enough jobs to bring down unemployment. That prompted hopes of continued low interest rates for some while, and also the prospect of more quantitative easing, something which had been fading recently. The key line seems to be:
Annalisa Piazza of Newedge Strategy said:
That prospect has lifted US futures, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average now forecast to open up 86 points, and the European markets. The FTSE 100 is now up 42.44 points at 5897.33, while France’s Cac is nearly 0.5% higher and Germany’s Dax has climbed more than 1%.
…
Where does ’spare capacity’ come from?
Bloomberg News
BOE’s Miles Says Spare Capacity Will Depress Price Pressure
By Svenja O’Donnell on March 27, 2012
Bank of England policy maker David Miles said spare capacity will continue to weigh on Britain’s “very muted” domestically-generated inflation pressures.
“There is a margin of spare capacity in the U.K. economy which has been, and will continue, depressing domestically generated inflation pressures,” Miles said in a speech late yesterday in Arlington, Virginia. They “are a good indication of where the underlying inflationary forces are and it is because they look very muted that monetary policy has been loosened over the recent past.”
…
“Where does ’spare capacity’ come from?”
The same place you get reduced sales from.
“reduced sales” sounds like a demand-side effect. But you can’t rule out the supply side, when “stabilization” measures are used to prop up prices at levels above where the free market would otherwise set them.
“reduced sales” sounds like a demand-side effect.
Demand$ goes … down, down, down
Price$ goes … Up$! Up$! Up$!
$torage, Bet$ & Bottleneck$ oh, my!
… it’s enough to make thee “Free Market$” cry & wail
In GB’s case, spare capacity means high unemployment and underemployment.
Spare capacity = unemployment
Also vacant homes and offices, underutilized factories, etc.
Bunds inch up after Bernanke, crisis fears linger
Tuesday, 27 March 2012 11:51
LONDON: German government bonds inched up early on Tuesday, supported by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke which kept alive hopes for further purchases of US bonds, underpinning the Treasury market.
Equities were set to follow Wall Street and Asia higher and US Treasuries were steady after Bernanke said a continuation of accommodative monetary policies was needed to support more rapid economic expansion.
June Bund futures were 12 ticks higher at 136.86, with 10-year yields 2 basis points lower at 1.93 percent.
Bunds remained broadly supported by fears that the euro zone debt crisis could escalate again with concerns now focussed on Spain’s ability to meet tough budget targets.
“Bernanke’s supportive for everything and Bunds are trading okay,” a trader said.
“Spain may be the next problem, I think everyone would like to have a proper look at their books.”
…
What is the limit on money-printing and deficit spending?
The “Keynesians” (those who advocate money-printing and deficit spending) are crowing that their way has saved the day. Japan is a case where massive national debt so far has not mattered.
To me however… this whole exercise is a bit like insisting seat belts are unnecessary, and to prove it, driving around for a year without seat belts. Summary - “See? Seat belts are totally unnecessary.”
Yeah… until the accident happens. But… what form would “the accident” take in financial terms?
Japan, just like the US, is a situation where they came to employ semi-Keynesian economic theory (deficit spending, but not the way Keynes would have it), only after ignoring Keynesian theory in their run-up (ie not taking away the punch bowl as their economy heated up).
Their bubble, like ours, was the result of ignoring Keynesian theory.
The Fed leadership ignored this guy’s advice for an awfully long time, as well:
Has the Market Become Addicted to Quantitative Easing?
By Vincent Trivett Mar 26, 2012 2:05 pm
Or does the system need the extra liquidity?
Minyanville’s own Todd Harrison just sat on a panel for the Maxim Group Growth Conference in New York. Todd debated with Paul LaRosa, Maxim Group’s chief market technician, and Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist of Yardeni Research in a session titled “Perspectives on the Global Economic and Political Landscape.” As in any macro debate, all kinds of contrasting opinions were getting thrown around. The panelists’ discussion of monetary policy is particularly relevant today after the markets’ Ben Bernanke-inspired rally.
…
“As in any macro debate”
x7 Billions of humans - [Thee "$uffering $o's" + their "Enabler$"] =
re–edit by the fill-in copy editor:
“all kinds of contrasting [peoples] were getting thrown around”
Addicted? More like utterly dependent on Uncle Sucker. i.e. the taxpayers.
Nope. No corporate welfare socialism here!
Damn unions!
March 27, 2012, 11:00 a.m. EDT
Liquidity flood lifts Mexican stocks
By Jon D. Markman
Stocks trotted briskly higher on Monday after Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke said the economy was not as strong as it looked and would require extra time in the intensive care unit.
If you don’t understand why such a morose statement gunned the market by 1%-plus, then you lost your secret Fed-speak decoder ring in the sofa while watching college hoops over the weekend.
In a nutshell, the Bernank’s downcast tone was taken as a sign that he is likely to keep cheap money flowing to support businesses, and might even throw another round of quantitative easing on the table. Futures markets had been speculating that the Fed’s promise to keep U.S. rates low through 2014 would actually end in 2013. His remarks messed up that bet big time.
Yes it was one of those “bad news is good news” sessions — a classic example of the way capitalism has been transformed into corporate socialism in the past few years. We’re at a moment when the comments of a government or central bank leader is worth a thousand earnings reports. We are all comrades now.
…
I’ll be damned! Somebody else gets it!
Economy & Policy
Where the Fed’s Profits Come From
Stimulus policies such as Quantitative Easing have had the side effect of boosting the Fed’s net income, but they have also created a couple of big risks.
By Michael Sivy | March 26, 2012
Financial documents released by the Federal Reserve last week showed that 2011 was the second-most-profitable year for the U.S. central banking system. Net income totaled $77.4 billion, down only slightly from $81.7 billion in 2010. That’s more than twice what the Fed was earning before the 2008-09 financial crisis. It’s also more than double the amount earned by Exxon, Microsoft or Apple. Where does all this money really come from, who ends up paying for it, and where does it go?
Conspiracy theorists claim that some global elite manipulates central banks and somehow siphons off their profits. In fact, central banks automatically earn income from performing their basic functions, and most of the Fed’s profits go to the Treasury as a contribution to government revenue. Unless the Fed causes higher inflation, the only way the public pays is by missing out on potential interest. Every paper dollar in your pocket is a dollar on which you are not earning any investment income.
…
Every paper dollar in my bank account is a dollar on which the Fed is the only one earning any investment income.
“Financial documents released by the Federal Reserve last week showed that 2011 was the second-most-profitable year for the U.S. central banking system.”
I guess all those MBS held a book value are really paying off. /sarcasm
I find it pretty funny how Republicans try to pin the blame for higher oil prices on Obama, yet all the MSM headlines mention ‘Bernanke comments’ when discussing the crude oil price hike.
Global credit system impaired, QE3 on conviction list: PIMCO
NDTV, 26 Mar 2012 | 06:47 PM
‘Crude oil prices rise on Bernanke’s comments’
The Federal Reserve is likely to signal its plans to arrange a third round of debt purchases when the policy makers meet on 25 April.
Mohamed A El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, the global investment management firm, told NDTV Profit that he expects the third round of quantitative easing to happen but it may not be 100 per cent.
As far as the global markets are concerned, he said that the storm in markets has not passed away as the credit system is still impaired and the investment in infrastructure is still very low.
…
“The Federal Reserve is likely to signal its plans to arrange a third round of debt purchases when the policy makers meet on 25 April.”
I will transmit this information to Vladimir.
Ha!
Who does Obama blame for higher oil prices, his boss?
Nope, his Trea$ury $ecretary’s bo$$.
[Seems folks$ sure have quieted down on Turbo-Timmay and where he might end up ... in the Future$]
There’s only ONE place to lay the blame for higher oil prices: the oil companies.
Nixon tried capping gas prices, and what resulted were long lines at the pump. Is that what Americans want?
Americans angry with Obama over gas prices
By Patricia Zengerle
WASHINGTON | Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:14pm EDT
(Reuters) - More than two-thirds of Americans disapprove of the way President Barack Obama is handling high gasoline prices, although most do not blame him for them, according to a Reuters/Ipsos online poll released on Tuesday.
Sixty-eight percent disapprove and 24 percent approve of how Obama is responding to price increases that have become one of the biggest issues in the 2012 presidential campaign.
In the past month, U.S. fuel prices have jumped about $0.30 per gallon to about $3.90 and the Republicans seeking to replace the Democrat in the November 6 election have seized upon the issue to attack his energy policies.
The disapproval reaches across party lines, potentially spelling trouble for Obama in the election, although the online survey showed voters hold oil companies or foreign countries more accountable than politicians for the price spike.
“Obama is getting heat for it but people aren’t necessarily blaming him for it,” said Chris Jackson, research director for Ipsos public affairs.
Majorities of Republicans, Democrats and independents all disapprove of the president’s handling of gas prices, according to the online poll of 606 Americans conducted March 26-27.
Eighty-nine percent of Republicans said they disapproved, as did 52 percent of Democrats and 73 percent of independents.
“People are unhappy that they are having to pay $3.90 a gallon. They want somebody to be able to lash out at and the president is as good a person as anybody,” Jackson said.
…
In the past month, U.S. fuel prices have jumped about $0.30 per gallon to about $3.90 and the Republicans seeking to replace the Democrat in the November 6 election have seized upon the issue to attack his energy policies.
If the average sedan’s capacity is roughly 14-gallons:
$3.00 x 14 = $42.00
$3.90 x 14 = $54.60
So the average driver is going ballistic over an extra $12.60? If your personal budget is that tight you probably shouldn’t be operating a motor vehicle.
March 22, 2012, 5:04 p.m. ET
Fed’s Fisher: Will Not Support More Quantitative Easing -Fox Business
By Cynthia Lin
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–A top Federal Reserve official said late Thursday that he will not support another round of monetary easing because the economy is already flush with idle cash.
“The money that is already out there is not being put to use,” Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher told Fox Business Network. “Why would you put more out there, if what we’ve already put out there is not being used to lubricate the economy, create more jobs, drive American prosperity, and create greater wealth for all of our people.”
…
“Why would you put more out there, if what we’ve already put out there is not being used to lubricate the economy, create more jobs, drive American prosperity, and create greater wealth for all of our people.” Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher
I’m confused. Is that called communist or socialist rhetoric nowadays?
““The money that is already out there is not being put to use,” Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher told Fox Business Network. “Why would you put more out there, if what we’ve already put out there is not being used to lubricate the economy, create more jobs, drive American prosperity, and create greater wealth for all of our people.”
“If the only tool you have is a hammer, then every problem looks like a nail.”
Wednesday, March 21, 2012 - 10:25
Dallas Fed’s Fisher: Megabanks Big Part in Prolonged Malaise
By Brai Odion-Esene
–Megabanks Significantly Hamper Ability to Properly Conduct Mon Pol
WASHINGTON (MNI) - In addition to remaining a lingering threat to financial stability, the continued existence of large financial institutions, or “megabanks,” significantly hamper the Federal Reserve’s ability to properly conduct monetary policy, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said Wednesday.
“They were a primary culprit in magnifying the financial crisis, and their presence continues to play an important role in prolonging our economic malaise,” Fisher wrote in an introductory letter to an essay by Harvey Rosenblum, the bank’s director of research, on the need to end too-big-to fail.
“If there is sludge on the crankshaft — in the form of losses and bad loans on the balance sheets of the TBTF banks — then the bank-capital linkage that greases the engine of monetary policy does not function properly to drive the real economy,” he said.
“In my view, downsizing the behemoths over time into institutions that can be prudently managed and regulated across borders is the appropriate policy response,” Fisher said.
He argued that the same TBTF institutions that amplified and prolonged the recent financial crisis “remain a hindrance to full economic recovery and to the very ideal of American capitalism.”
…
$ = empha$i$
“If there is $ludge on the crank$haft — in the form of lo$$es and bad loan$ on the balance sheet$ of the TBTF bank$ — then the bank-capital linkage that grease$ the engine$ of monetary policy does not function properly to drive the real economy,” he said.
“In my view, down$izing the behemoth$ over time into institution$ that can be prudently managed and regulated across borders is the appropriate policy response,” Fisher said.
He argued that the same TBTF institution$ that amplified and prolonged the recent financial cri$i$ “remain a hindrance to full economic recovery and to the very ideal of American capitali$m.”
Why not quantitatively ease this?
March 27, 2012, 9:00 a.m. EDT
Case-Shiller home price index falls in January
By Jeffry Bartash
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Home prices in the U.S. fell for the fifth month in a row in January to the lowest level since early 2003, a closely followed index showed on Tuesday. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index fell 0.8%. The three-month rolling index includes transactions that took place from November to January. Over the past 12 months, prices have dropped 3.8%. Sixteen of the 20 metropolitan area saw price declines. Only Miami, Phoenix and Washington, DC posted increases.
…
D.C. posted an increase. Who would have guessed?
The convictions that housing drives the economy and that no economic recovery will be possible without a housing recovery remain strong among MSM commentators, even as the recovery continues apace without housing.
March 27, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EDT
Springtime for U.S. housing
Commentary: After long misery, market appears on the mend
By Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) — The long-hoped for bottom in the housing market appears to be at hand.
Never mind autos — what’s good for housing is good for the economy. Housing usually leads the way out of a recession, but it also leads the way in.
This time around, by remaining in the cellar, housing has largely been responsible for the inability of the economy to shake off the effects of the Great Recession of 2007-09.
…
The housing boom was built on expanding credit. That’s what these clowns are waiting for, more credit expansion.
Yes, because there’s all this “pent-up demand”!!!!!!!!!!
I actually believe that there is some; many of those living in mom’s basement would ideally like to get their own place at some point.
Of course, household formation will remain low until there are better jobs available—and those are going to come from where again?
“…many of those living in mom’s basement would ideally like to get their own place at some point.”
I personally have pent-up demand for a $10m cliff-top home in La Jolla (not really, but just trying to make a point about how you can’t always get what you want…).
” …will remain low until there are better jobs available—and those are going to come from where again?”
No worrie$, $omeone really $mart & full of TruePatrioti$m at the Pentagon is fervently working on this $it-u-a-$hun as.we.blog! :-/
The problem is how many avg young adults want to live in the median size home from the mid 70s (before we started inflating under the fiat system) when they’ve spent their entire lives in the bubble world of big,big, big. They have no idea how to shove 6 people in a 1300-1500 sq foot house the way we did.
I also wonder whether living alone for 10 years or w/only a single roommate causes you to believe you need more space than when people went straight from Mom and Dad’s house to a small home for their own brood. Dunno the answer. I only know the space I think I need will get much, much smaller once those teenagers move on.
Five months straight and counting…
U.S. home prices dip in January
Case-Shiller index falls
Home prices in the U.S. fall for the fifth month in a row to their lowest level since early 2003, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite. Only Miami, Phoenix and Washington, D.C., posted increases.
Evidence that the housing bubble lives: Decreases in housing affordability are still reported by the MSM to this day as “improvements.”
So far, the Bernanke Put seems to be outweighing the dismal news on U.S. home prices.
Inflation is contained.
Let them eat i-pads.
Reality can not, and will not trump QE.
“”But I don’t think anyone believes the solution is to let people live mortgage-free in their homes for a year or more.”
I beg to differ.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-03-26 08:32:43
“So housing in Florida isn’t outrageously overpriced because of the deadbeats. It’s actually outrageously affordable, at around $50 a square foot.”
“Or are you just pounding a political drum? Dead-beats, dead-beats, it’s all coz o’ the dead-beats. (Conveniently ignoring- and even defending- the banksters who orchestrated and made millions from it.)”
Fla. tops in year-late home loans
By Kimberly Miller Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 7:15 p.m. Monday, March 26, 2012
Florida has more federally backed home loans that have gone unpaid for a year or longer than the total number of late government loans in every state except California.
A report by the Federal Housing Finance Agency found that by the end of 2011, about 166,000 Florida mortgages backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac were in arrears on payments for a year or more.
That’s by far the largest pool of prolonged delinquencies nationally, with Illinois carrying the second-highest share of year-old unpaid loans at 42,000. It’s also higher than every state’s total delinquency rate except California, which had 174,000 mortgages late on payments.
Florida’s total number of late loans from the two government-sponsored entities was 292,000, highest in the country.
Real estate experts weren’t surprised by the agency’s findings, noting Florida’s 368,000-case backlog in the courts and banks’ hesitancy to push foreclosures in judicial states while they were negotiating the $25 billion settlement with the nation’s attorneys general.
But they said it is a reminder of the magnitude of the housing crisis in Florida. The report, released last week, also found that the average foreclosure on a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac loan in Florida takes 890 days - more than two years - to process.
“We’ve had trouble as a country coming to a balance between borrower rights and making sure all options are explored before throwing people out of their homes,” said Guy Cecala, publisher of the trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance. “But I don’t think anyone believes the solution is to let people live mortgage-free in their homes for a year or more.”
Fannie Mae has about 1.2 million loans in Florida, while Freddie Mac has about 750,000.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/real-estate/fla-tops-in-year-late-home-loans-2263166.html?printArticle=y -
“A report by the Federal Housing Finance Agency found that by the end of 2011, about 166,000 Florida mortgages backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac were in arrears on payments for a year or more.”
But, but, but Fannie Mae told David J. Stern that they alone had 600,000 shadow inventory loans in Florida. Is it possible that someone is not telling the truth?
On April 15, 2011, Ft. Lauderdale, FL attorney Steve Jaffe took the deposition of former “Foreclosure King” David J. Stern. For whatever reason the transcript was not filed until Dec. 21, 2011, and with the holidays it’s taken even those of us who’ve been watching the Stern road-wreck — a group he actually hands a shout-out to towards the end – some time to plow through the 277 pages. …
Here’s the excerpt that should send a chill down the spine of any housing analyst … and everybody else too.
Jaffe: .. you’re reading reports. You’re seeing volume. You’re seeing new file intakes. You’re seeing how fast they’re closing. And you’re seeing cash flow in and out of the company.
Stern: Okay.
Jaffe: And so, you have — in 2010, you have a handle on what’s happening with the business?
Stern: As the numbers are reported in the quarterly earning calls and the investors or the world, whoever elects to participate in that call is made aware of the day-to-day happenings.
Jaffe: Right. But you have that information, that institutional knowledge of your own business far in advance of those calls and reports for that matter.
Stern: When Fannie Mae comes in and sits down and says, “David, we have 600,000 shadow inventory loans,” we say “You mean, 60,000″? And they go, “No. We mean, 600,000.” And I say, “Oh, that’s nationwide”? And they go, “No 600,000 shadow inventory in the State of Florida”. Sure, I know. Yeah, it’s exciting.
[Note: transcribed verbatim from the transcript.]
“You mean, 60,000″? And they go, “No. We mean, 600,000.” And I say, “Oh, that’s nationwide”? And they go, “No 600,000 shadow inventory in the State of Florida”. Sure, I know. Yeah, it’s exciting.”
Geez Jeff did those cult-deadbeater$ ever take those loan$-maker$ to town, got$ ‘em real good didn’t they! Why eyes bet ya them loan$-maker$ didn’t even see-it-coming!
“No 600,000 shadow inventory in the State of Florida”
That’s probably about $200-billion, which is a fraction of the California shadow inventory crisis. Good thing that the stock market is able to ignore these data.
Between the deadbeats, the low wages, crime and overzealous vigilantes Florida seems to be a place to best avoid.
overzealous vigilantes
There is physical evidence backed up by independent witnesses that shows Zimmerman was physically attacked by Martin from behind while in the process of returning to his car. Zimmerman had every right to defend and protect himself, and given the “Stand your ground” law in Florida, was in his rights to shoot his attacker.
The calls by the black community and leaders like Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton to arrest Zimmerman amount to “lynchmob justice”, and should be ignored unless physical evidence and eyewitness testimony prove otherwise.
An armed society is a polite society, though it seems the black community hasn’t gotten the memo yet. If Martin’s parents had spent more time teaching their son that physical violence is a thing of last resort to be used only when protecting yourself from assault, then he would be alive today.
Actually, it’s George W Bush’s fault.
I washed up on the shores of Sanford, Florida at the height of the housing bubble, after the ex and I sold our former home (perfect timing). Jim Goad at Takimag describes it as a “seedy little gator hunting town”. He was being too kind. I lasted about two months in that hell-hole and came screaming back here to the Tampa Bay area. It’s like the twilight zone, seriously. From the outside, it looks like a charming old Florida town, with the huge lake part of the St. John’s river chain, the main street with antique and specialty shops and the cobblestones/pavers and the old Florida architecture houses, etc. But it’s probably the only place I ever lived where I was panhandled while sitting on my front porch. Not to mention an actual fist-fight taking place in the middle of the street at the intersection where my apartment was located at one corner.
There’s a real grifter mentality about the place, seems like everyone’s looking to get a leg over, no matter what the walk of life. One resident told us that Sanford was informally known as the aids capital of Florida.
I`m taking the other side of the coin on this for only one reason. If what I heard on the 911 call where Zimmerman was following the kid and was told not to do so by the 911 operator but continued to do so anyway, he should be charged with murder.
To me stand your ground is where you are, if Zimmerman was doing his patrol and the kid walked up to him and started to beat his @ss that`s one thing. If he followed the kid and then started to get his @ss beat that`s another.
I grew up in a house with hunting rifles everywhere, we never touched them unless we were with my Dad. I personally never owned a gun until about 3 years ago. My middle daughter got in an altercation with the niece of a POS in the last hood I rented in. My wife and I got a call from my older daughter and went around the subdivision to see what was up. The kid thing was relatively minor but the POS uncle of the other kid followed my wife, daughter and myself all the way back to our house repeatedly asking me… What are you gonna do hit me? I repetedly said… Look @sshole just go home, it`s over. He is a full SS disability guy who deals and does drugs, although about my size he was a little shorter at 6 foot 2 and he is a slob. It wouldn`t have been much of a fight. I thought he just wanted to sue me but I found out a couple of days later when I tried to make peace with the POS that he had a gun and if he had any more problems he would “just pop a cap in one of us” The fact he carried a gun was confirmed by his niece. I went to the Jupiter Police Dept. and told them. They said… he hasn`t broken any laws there`s not much we can do, do you want us to go talk to him? I said no thanks. I had a Glock 19 two days later and a carry permit in about 7 weeks.
So as you can see although I do believe someone has the right to protect themselves where they stand, I do not believe anyone has the right to follow someone when there is no way in the world they would do so unless they had a gun and then claim self defence.
+1
If it matters, the POS was a white dude.
Stand your ground is an extension of the castle doctrine to where ever you are outside your home. Zimmerman had no legal requirement to obey the dispatcher, the chief of police has gone on record as saying so to clarify the point. A verbal confrontation does not constitute grounds for assault.
I’m not a lawyer, but in terms of the encounter you described with the POS, it would seem he wanted to bait you into an attack, thereby possibly giving him justification to pull his concealed weapon and possibly shoot. From a legal standpoint, stand your ground would not have held up because he was pursuing you, not retreating from the encounter. Self-defense may or may not have held up had he shot you in the process of defending himself from an assault. Most likely not, but it would depend on the evidence available and the jury. The threat made to “pop a cap in someone” may have been grounds for a restraining order to protect both you and your daughter.
One more note, felons are barred from obtaining firearms licenses. If the POS in your story was dealing drugs, one would hope he would eventually be caught and convicted. No more LTC or legal protection in a shooting at that point…
Honestly, I prefer “open-carry” to concealed-carry laws. Everyone tends to calm down and be a bit more polite when guns are very visible. There are a number of states considering open-carry laws currently.
To me stand your ground is where you are, if Zimmerman was doing his patrol and the kid walked up to him and started to beat his @ss that`s one thing. If he followed the kid and then started to get his @ss beat that`s another.
That’s my take on it as well.
Plus how does a 140 lb kid beat up a 250 lb adult? I could take a 140 lb teen out with a single punch.
My guess is that it was the kid who was standing his ground, until Zimmerman pulled out his gun to blew away a kid he outweighed by 100+ lbs. Had it been the other way around, with Zimmerman being the 140 lb pipsqueak being chased down by a 250 lb thug, then maybe I could see him needing a gun.
Had he stayed in his car and minded his own business (as the dispatcher requested), nothing would have happened.
That said, I believe that:
1) Zimmerman will walk, courtesy of Florida’s Wild West laws.
2) There will be riots.
If a cop shoots one, there is an automatic investigation, witnesses under oath, with results released to the public.
Seems to me that taking this guys word for it, without a similar investigation, is a pretty crappy way of doing business.
For starters, it would be nice to know how this guy handled previous confrontations.
Hey, it was supposed to be a neighborhood WATCH, not a “Neighborhood Confront and Interrogate”.
If I was out at 1am, and some azzhole, accountable to no one, Neighborhood Watch Nazi decided to confront and detain me, he might have to bust a cap in my azz too.
When you get shot, the blood is red.
3) And Sanford will die an ugly death, as if it could be any more ugly than it already is. I bet there’s a few real estate agents over there right now seething about deals fallen through. I left money on the table when I left Sanford and considered myself lucky to get out with my hide intact.
4) Imagine the effect riots would have on Orlando tourism, especially on Disneyworld.
One of the best pieces of advice I ever got on “strangers in the nabe” came from a guy who used to be on our county attorney’s staff: Say hello to them.
Matter of fact, be what he called the Super Happy Dumb Neighbor. Give everyone a hearty “Good morning!” Or “Great day, isn’t it?” Or something equally cheery.
The legit people will be happy to strike up a conversation. And that’s all for the good.
The nefarious types? Well, let’s put it this way: They don’t want to be noticed. The more people who give them cheery greetings, the worse things are for them. Because one of those oh-so-nice people might be going in the house to make a 911 call.
Don’t let them in the house with you.
overzealous vigilantes
Here’s one for you, though.
If Zimmerman gave chase without provocation from Martin, then Martin had every right to defend himself per the “Stand your Ground” Law. Furthermore, if this is the case, then Zimmerman cannot claim he was defending himself if he himself initiated the confrontation.
Here is the initial (pdf) police report:
Zimmerman called to report the shooting. Zimmerman had a blood coming from his face and the back of his head. The back of his shirt was wet and grass stained. He was treated at the scene by police and declined to be transported to hospital. -
Martin’s father denied to police that the voice on the 911 tape pleading for help was that of his son.
Anyone who thinks that a lithe teen can’t stand his ground with a shlub who outweighs him by 100 pounds has never been to an MMA bout.
I wasn’t there that night, nor were the rest of us. Shall we wait for due process on this one?
http://www.sanfordfl.gov/investigation/docs/Twin%20Lakes%20Shooting%20Initial%20Report.pdf
f Zimmerman gave chase without provocation from Martin, then Martin had every right to defend himself per the “Stand your Ground” Law.
Agreed. However the physical evidence and eyewitness statements don’t point to that. Zimmerman is the one who was assaulted, from behind it would seem. This aligns with what witnesses stated: that Zimmerman was in the process of walking back to his vehicle when Martin assaulted him.
If there is no evidence of physical assault on Martin nor eyewitness account to support that premise, and I doubt there is, than it was Martin who was the aggressor. Regardless of whether Zimmerman followed him and talked to him, that doesn’t give Martin the right to attack Zimmerman. That is assault and battery, not self-defense. Given it was an attack from behind, that allows Zimmerman to use the “stand your ground” defense.
While I certainly don’t condone violence, as I understand the facts of the case currently, I support what Zimmerman did. I agree that he shouldn’t have pursued Martin, but that does not preclude guilt or innocence in the shooting if it was self-defense. Unfortunately, this case is too emotionally and racially charged for most to look at it purely from the standpoint of established law.
There will be riots, except they won’t be like after the Rodney King verdict. Expect random sporadic incidents of “get whitey” like at the Wisconsin state fair last year and the social media “flash mob” assaults in Center City Philadelphia
I would be really careful about taking the testimony of witnesses at face value, especially after they have had a couple of weeks to match stories.
Any homeowner covered by the HOA has exposure to a wrongful death suit, for starters. They have a big incentive to lie their asses off.
Here’s the deal with cops. They only investigate a case as far as they need to, to prove the case they are trying to make. Any evidence to the contrary is ignored.
Anyone who thinks that a lithe teen can’t stand his ground with a shlub who outweighs him by 100 pounds has never been to an MMA bout.
Sorry, the kid wasn’t an MMA fighter. Teens get beaten up by big bullies all the time. And by their dads and other adults.
I’m a black belt. There’s a reason why in the Olympics they segregate fighters by weight. Bigger guys and gals are stronger, plain and simple.
I’ll take the physical evidence and eye witness statements taken right after the incident over the assumed guilt of the shooter and subjecting him to arrest and prosecution on the whim of an angry mob out for vigilante justice.
Al Sharpton’s speech: “Do the right thing! Arrest the shooter and GOD will love you!”
Here’s some physical evidence:
http://www.examiner.com/unsolved-cases-in-national/george-zimmerman-s-911-call-transcribed
Oh, c’mon, Colo,
5′9″ and 250 pounds? IIII could bop someone that obese in the nose, or smack him behind the knees and bring him down when his back was turned.
Not trying to minimize what appears to be mutual fear and loathing between two Floridians each “standing their ground,” but size differentials aren’t necessarily all that significant in street fighting, your black belt and Olympic proscriptions notwithstanding.
Again, Martin’s father told police that wasn’t his son screaming for help in the 911 tape.
I wasn’t there that night, nor were the rest of us. Shall we wait for due process on this one?
+1 zillion, Allena.
It blows my mind how such a huge fraction of our population is ready to declare guilt on one side or the other, with such certainty, when NONE of them have not looked at all of the facts yet. And all of the facts are not yet available, so none of them possibly could have done so.
I passed a van with a HUGE “Justice for Trayvon!” sign in the window on my way home today. I guess that guy must have been there that night.
Personally, I’m trying to avoid jumping to any conclusions, and giving the system time to work…
anyone notice when jackson gets involved the black person is always guilty of something?
Definitely. Sing it, brothah!
“Florida has more federally backed home loans that have gone unpaid for a year or longer than the total number of late government loans in every state except California.”
We’re number one!
“So housing in Florida isn’t outrageously overpriced because of the deadbeats. It’s actually outrageously affordable, at around $50 a square foot.”
Is that not true?
Try not to answer with 200 lines of various unrelated peoples’ loan and heloc histories.
“So housing in Florida isn’t outrageously overpriced because of the deadbeats. It’s actually outrageously affordable, at around $50 a square foot.”
“Is that not true?”
Around here $50 a foot puts you in a neighborhood that I do not want to live in.
What about $100/sq ft? Will that put you into a neighborhood that you could easily live in? Even at that price, a kindergarten teacher a $35K a year could buy a perfect cutie-patootie 3/1 at 3x income. Is this still not affordable?
“What about $100/sq ft? Will that put you into a neighborhood that you could easily live in?”
This is the Loxahatchee Pines house I have a $220k bid in on. So yes around $100/sq ft would do it. The problem is most of the listed inventory in a decent neighborhood is $150-$175/sq ft and up. I have said here a lot that the PTB let the low end stuff go while keeping the prices on middle class and up artificially inflated by whatever means available to them.
5993 Loxahatchee Pines DrJupiter, FL 33458
$229,000
Price Reduced
4 Bed, 2 Bath 2,000 Sq Ft
Here is another listed in the price range you are talking about and at $164,500 for 1,774 Sq Ft sounds pretty good but if you look at the house or check the county records you get 1254 Sq Ft living area for $164,500
462 Tequesta Dr Tequesta, FL 33469
$164,500 Price Reduced
Beds:3 Bed
Baths:2 Bath
House Size:1,774 Sq Ft
Subarea and Sq. Footage for Building 1
No. Code Description Sq. Footage
1. BAS BASE AREA 1254
2. FOP FINISHED OPEN PORCH 240
3. FEP FINISHED ENCLOSED PORCH 520
Total Square Footage : 2014
Total Area Under Air : 1254
But agreed it is better than the OCT-2004 $232,000 price.
Thanks for that, Jeff. Looks like a good house for the money. I didn’t realize that the bubble was so sharp. In DC the peak didn’t go quite so high.
HBB has commented on the polarization of housing before. Nobody touches the bad stuff, bidding wars on the good stuff.
Yeah, but it’s… Florida.
If God didn’t want us to eat animals he wouldn’t have made them out of meat.
Khloé Kardashian Odom Quits PETA Over Jaw-Dropping Link to Kim’s Flour-Bombing
After years of being a vocal supporter for PETA (not to mention posing for one of the organizations famously nude PSAs ), Khloé Kardashian Odom has officially severed ties with the animal-rights organization.
Writing on her blog and Twitter , the reality star explains that she is “absolutely disgusted by their behavior” after a shocking link surfaced between the group and the flour-bomb attack on Kim Kardashian last week.
http://xfinity.comcast.net/articles/entertainment-eonline/20120326/b304080/ - -
“If God didn’t want us to eat animals he wouldn’t have made them out of meat.”
“Skinner” one-tooth Jake: Eye’ll trades ya this here beaver pelt for that 8×10 autograph glossy.
I have heard of Cotton Eye Joe but I never heard of one-tooth Jake. Are they realated?
If it hadn’t been for Cotton-Eye Joe
I’d bought a house a long time ago
Where did you come from, where did you go?
Where did you come from, Cotton-Eye Joe?
There has never been a better time to buy — at least since 2003, that is.
March 27, 2012, 10:23 a.m. EDT
Case-Shiller: Home prices fall in January
Index records fifth straight decline; prices lowest in nine years
By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. home prices fell for the fifth month in a row in January to the lowest level since early 2003, according to a closely followed index.
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index dropped 0.8% in the first month of 2012. The three-month rolling index includes transactions that took place from November to January.
“Despite some positive economic signs, home prices continued to drop,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Indices.
…
Less affordable prices = improvement
More affordable prices = BAD
I see no problems with consumer confidence or home prices that a little more quantitative easing couldn’t fix.
U.S. consumer confidence dips in March
Views on the present situation rise to highest level since 2008
By Ruth Mantell, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — A gauge of consumer confidence declined in March due to lower employment expectations, while views on the present situation rose to the highest level since 2008, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.
The confidence gauge fell to 70.2 in March from a February reading of 71.6. A prior estimate had pegged February’s consumer-confidence level at 70.8.
“The moderate decline was due solely to a less favorable short-term outlook,” and data suggest “consumers feel the economy is not losing momentum,” said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s consumer research center.
Generally when the economy is growing at a good clip, confidence readings are at least 90.
Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a reading of 71.5 for March. See economic calendar.
Earlier this month, a separate reading on U.S. sentiment showed a drop, due, in part, to rising gasoline prices. Read more about sentiment.
Gas prices at the pump have gained more than 60 cents a gallon since late last year, according to weekly Department of Energy data. Meanwhile, there have been positive readings from various jobs reports.
…
This is my friend who is leveraged up to his eyeballs, and spends everything he has each month. Now gas prices are higher and food prices are higher. Something has to give. He can’t spend more money regardless of quantitative easing.
This is retired people who live on fixed incomes who depend on interest from conservative investments.
The goal is not to improve GDP, it’s to drive down american workers salaries so that we can compete with China and import less, while at the same time making the elite more wealthy and powerfull.
The future belongs to Lucky Ducky
And there’ll be more of them after January, 2013!
“The goal is not to improve GDP, it’s to drive down american workers salaries”
Doubtful the goal of any domestic conspiracy. More likey the goal has been short term profits, by any means, regardless of the long term consequences. By and large, we are all volunteers in this too. What percentage of Americans has refused to by made-in-China over the past 20 years, when it is half the price of made-in-America, while their neighbors were getting layoffs? Or with made-in-Japan before that? 2%? I doubt it is that high.
What percentage of Americans has refused to by made-in-China over the past 20 years, when it is half the price of made-in-America
I’ll stand up and be counted… Smith & Wesson and Savage Arms, products not only made in America, but made right here in Massachusetts. While my cousin was purchasing significantly cheaper Chinese-made SKS’s and AK’s, I was helping out the local economy with my M&P15 and Model 10
Also own a Honda Accord and a Honda Pilot, both manufactured in the US… (Alabama and Ohio can thank me later)
Yeah, but most of the high value engineering on those Hondas was done in Japan.
It didn’t matter whether you bought USA or not. Retail prices stayed the same. The guys that made bank were the guys that off shored, replaced their $10-20/hour US labor with $5/day Chinese/overseas labor, and pocketed the difference.
Now we’re screwed. Go to your local AutoZone or O’Reillys, and try to find a part that ISN”T made in China/Mexico.
Most aftermarket parts are junk. If you want quality parts, you’ve got to go to the dealers.
If you are getting rid of the car anyway, go buy O’Reilly’s junk. If it’s a part that takes a lot of labor to replace (struts, hub bearings, half-shafts, starters, alternators) go buy GM/Ford/Mopar, unless you want to pay to fix it again in 9-12 months.
(Helpful hint: If you own a GM car, check out “GM Direct”. Genuine GM parts sold at jobber prices. Online parts catalogs, with illustrations and part numbers. I’ve also found that my local GM dealer will match GM Direct prices on over-the-counter parts, if they know you are thinking about ordering from GM Direct.)
Yeah, but most of the high value engineering on those Hondas was done in Japan
True, but Honda is employing people in the US to assemble the vehicles here, which is more than I can say for companies that assemble their products in Canada/Mexico/Korea/Germany and import them. It’s a small thing, but I do try and buy “made in the US” when it’s an option, even if the cost is higher… though in the case of the Hondas, I doubt the overall cost will be higher than that of other auto brands.
Smith & Wesson and Savage Arms
Ruger and Savage here…
Ruger and Savage here…
My brother from another mother…
Software developer, gun enthusiast, HBB commentator.
Ithaca, Colt and Browning here. I’m no spring chicken.
the goal has been short term profits, by any means, regardless of the long term consequences….we are all volunteers in this too.
Is this not proof that an unregulated free-market with only profits as its goal can destroy a nation?
we are all volunteers
How did the “free-hand of the market” protect American jobs?
No argument. None. Just let’s not play the helpless victims. Nobody helps helpless victims. Better to discuss what can be done.
Just let’s not play the helpless victims. Nobody helps helpless victims. Better to discuss what can be done.
In order to discuss what can be done, the problem has to be identified. Repeatedly and logically identifying the problem in the face of constant hostile opposition is not playing the helpless victim.
No, we are not volunteers. We were never given real choices.
The local big box store is usually the ONLY place most people have access too, have time to shop at and are constantly bombarded by their advertising, from.
Most people just DON’T HAVE TIME to do anything else, since everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, has become a self serve, DIY, tough-doody-you’re-on-your-own, work-a-day world.
But, but I thought we had a social contract here in the USA.
It’s your “choice” of fast food at the drive through for you Lurkey? Damn the consequences. If 10% of the people said, no I want something healthy, it would get on the menu.
but I thought we had a social contract here in the USA.
You do think?
But, but I thought we had a social contract here in the USA.
Our social contract is called liberty, freedom from socialism.
If china were to allow their currency to adjust to market levels, would it rise or fall against the dollar?
Right now? Rise.
6 months from now? Anybody’s guess.
Here’s an interesting story rationalizing further easing:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-does-bernanke-know-.html
+1 Interesting perspective. Thanks!
There were a bunch of anti-ACA protestors on the Metro with me this morning. My comment only applies to the ones I saw, but I didn’t see anyone who looked like they were not yet eligible for Medicare.
I didn’t see anyone who looked like they were not yet eligible for Medicare.
They’re there to make sure government keeps its hands off their Medicare.
ROTFLMAO!!!!!
I’m sorry, I just can’t agree with the individual mandate. It’s a real slippery slope to coerce people to pay for a private service under threat of IRS action. I’m not averse to some sort of single payer system, expanding Medicare, etc.
Full disclosure: I’m not yet eligible for Medicare.
The government is in cahoots with the insurance industry on this one. Think mandatory auto insurance for the body. Instead of becoming doctors, I’m telling my kids they should become actuaries. With a fear-based economy insurance companies will be the only game in town.
I haven’t seen anything that indicates that the insurance companies have any incentive at all to control prices for anyone considered “high risk”
“High risk” being anyone over 45, or with perceived chronic health issues.
I find it humorous that, due to my weight and family history, I am uninsurable (last time I saw a doctor for an unscheduled appointment was in 2003), but a host of people my age (mid 50s) who are “healthy” (skinny joggers/bicyclists) are dealing with arthritis and joint replacements.
It’s called Boomeritis.
The radio analysis this morning is that the “IRS” action is pretty restricted. If you refuse to pay it, your future refunds would be diverted, but other enforcement options don’t apply.
OT, polly, I’ve been meaning to ask you, a person who is paid on a 1099 basis is not an employee, right? In other words, according to the legal stuff I’ve been reading, a 1099 is a subcontractor and as such, can’t be told when and where to report for work (on a regular basis). Generally 1099s don’t receive training, right? I’ve seen people referred to as a “1099 employee”, which strikes me as a bit of an oxymoron.
You are basically correct. The doctrine was created by the courts. At least I think it was.
In the platonic ideal of a contractor you work on a contract that sets a price for a specified goal at a specified time. If it takes you very little time to do it, you may make a bundle off the contract. If you get hurt, you may have to hire someone else to fulfill your contract and lose money on it. The contractor has some risk and is supposed to decide when and how they do the work, though of course the contract can specify intermediate receivables.
Arizona Slim’s description of her business is the platonic ideal of an independent contractor.
If your “employer” is paying you on an hourly basis and telling you when and where to show up and how to do what they want you to do (use these tools, not those tools) you aren’t a contractor. If you aren’t a contractor, the employer has to pay for the employer half of FICA taxes and all sorts of other rules (like overtime) may apply.
That being said, the person doing the work may have little choice. When my brother took on teaching a religious school class for extra money he desperately needed, they paid him as an inpendent contractor. I told him that teaching from 4 to 6 on specific days with a specified curriculum didn’t meet the test. He mentioned it casually and they told him if he wanted to be an employee, he was fired. He let it drop.
Go to irs.gov and type employee independent contractor into the search box. They probably have a lot more. Look for a publication, generally pdf files. If it says it is for small businesses, it was probably written for lay people.
Yeah, my wife delivered newspapers for a year. Technically an “independent contractor”, but then again, if the morning papers weren’t delivered by a certain time, she would not have kept her job. In other words, it wouldn’t really matter if she were ten minutes late showing up to bag the papers at 3am, but she couldn’t just show up at noon.
I’d take that analysis with a huge shaker of salt, I’m afraid. IRS is a law unto itself and pretty much does what it wants to do. It all depends on whether or not the agent assigned to your case is a reasonable person.
Using an agency to enforce one law isn’t the same as applying all the procedures that normally apply to that agency’s enforcement of other laws to the first one. It simply isn’t. I remembered it because it made sense.
Using the IRS to enforce the law doesn’t automatically make the deadline April 15th either.
If you refuse to pay it, your future refunds would be diverted, but other enforcement options don’t apply.”
if you are poor you can’t pay it anyway
you could choose to be poor by working for cash
so when do we do away with cash
it goes on and on
Future refunds diverted? What if someone adjusts the amount that’s withheld from his pay so he owes the IRS a small amount every April 15th, and is never due a refund?
Somehow I think the IRS would still get their pound of flesh.
BINGO palmetto.
The system we have now is used to strip wealth from the tax payers every bit as much as WS strips wealth. The limits on insurance profitabillity will be revoked later or the insurance companies will figure a way around them.
There is a simple solution to this problem. We need to get rid of the Hippocratic Oath. This one issue (a relic from 2500 years ago) has completely ruined our healthcare system by obligating doctors and hospitals to render aid to the uninsured. Get rid of it and the free market will get the price right.
PS: If the AHC law is repealed or struck down will we be able to measure the effects based on the number of people who die without insurance vs. the one that do?
The ONLY price the free market “gets right” is always higher and higher with lessor and lessor in return to the customer.
Now that’s just a silly statement.
Should the government decide how much I can charge for the used car that my neighbor wants to buy? What about for the blueberries and other fruit that the local berry patch grows? The amount the local computer store charges to remove spyware from someone’s hard drive?
There are millions of such “free market” transactions every week in the U.S. How many government employees would it take to regulate them all?
I’m sorry, I just can’t agree with the individual mandate. It’s a real slippery slope to coerce people to pay for a private service under threat of IRS action.
That’s a valid point. We’ll soon see what will happen.
Note though that people are already being forced to pay for others health care via
1. Higher medical bills - Hospitals and drug companies give out charity but offord this by charging more.
2. Higher insurance premiums see #1
3. Higher taxes see #1
ISTR reading that Medicare was designed so that it could easily be scaled up to cover the entire American population. So, bring on that Medicare for All.
Those who oppose Obamacare should be careful what they wish for. Striking down the mandate may be the most direct route to public option/single payer.
Striking down the mandate may be the most direct route to public option/single payer.
Maybe it’s better to strike it down then?
See the ALEC article I posted below.
My guess is the big money behind this is coming from insurance companies who know in the short term is is tough but in the long term they will get their puppets in gov to change the things they don’t like and keep the things they do like ie everyone has to pay for insurance.
Wasn’t too long ago that the head of Aetna said that it was pretty much over for the private insurance industry. Juicy details courtesy of Wendell Potter’s blog.
And I would be remiss in my job as your HBB Librarian if I didn’t mention Potter’s book, Deadly Spin. In short, it’s his story of how he went Benedict Arnold on the health insurers.
BINGO
Those who oppose Obamacare should be careful what they wish for. Striking down the mandate may be the most direct route to public option/single payer.
Robert Reich is blogging about this very scenario.
If you or your employer already pay for health insurance, there is no problem.
If you can’t afford health insurance, the government (states working with the feds) will find you a compatible, subsidized plan that fits your budget.
If still can’t afford health insurance, there is no penalty because you are too poor.
So who does this really affect?
Point number 2 is the reform part.
Insightful article about the state of affairs in this great nation:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/corzine-is-getting-a-pass-would-you-2012-03-27
This guy seems quite bright.
I liked this link from the comments:
The Ascendence of Sociopaths in US Governance, How to Surive What’s to Come
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33728.html
From the article-
“In this article, I’m going to argue that the US government, in particular, is being overrun by the wrong kind of person. It’s a trend that’s been in motion for many years but has now reached a point of no return. In other words, a type of moral rot has become so prevalent that it’s institutional in nature.”
I’m going to argue that this is the direct result of wealth concentration and money in politics.
I think it goes beyond that. Pursuit of wealth is the absolute end-all in today’s society. The decay has been evolving for decades. Ethics, integrity, honesty all fall by the way side. And as the resource pool dries up (or becomes more concentrated), those possessing any moral basis are pushed aside while the sociopath and the like are rewarded with impunity and wealth. What’s not to love with an environment that nurtures and encourages this type of activity? Of course those best positioned to take advantage of the system will do so.
But on a side note, I feel that our society in entering into a proverbial “Dark Age.” There is little emphasis on education (other than the sake of landing a good-paying job); aesthetics, including art, architecture, music, culture; knowledge for the sake of knowledge; science in its purest form; ethical living for the sake of being a good individual.
Ethics, schmethics. I know. I’m a fool.
Amazing find. This one is even better!
“It’s a pity that Bush, when he was in office, made such a big deal of evil. He discredited the concept. He made Boobus americanus think it only existed in a distant axis, in places like North Korea, Iraq and Iran – which were and still are irrelevant backwaters and arbitrarily chosen enemies. Bush trivialized the concept of evil and made it seem banal because he was such a fool. All the while real evil, very immediate and powerful, was growing right around him, and he lacked the awareness to see he was fertilizing it by turning the US into a national security state after 9/11.”
Boobus americanus. Funny. He said anus.
Boobus americanus. Funny. He said anus.
Yeah yeah…huh huh…yeah…AND he said boob.
lol… So he did!
I had a brief conversation with a girl who works at a property management company in the DC area today. The stereotypical “Lucky Ducky” type–29 yrs old, probably has her job bc she is very pretty, bachelor’s degree but not making good money. She said a few things that just blew my mind: first–”RE is always a good investment” and then after I pointed out about the market dropping the last few yrs, foreclosures, short sales, Fannie/Freddie–”well, you win some, you lose some”. LOL.
She probably is correct when she pointed out that her company’s apartments are near 100% occupancy and at rates equal or better than a few yrs ago. But this is a symptom of the problems with the real estate market, not a sign that things are good. I think all of this company’s apartments are in southern MD/northern VA…
Forgot to mention… the thing that REALLY stuck out to me was that this girl didn’t realize she is a Lucky Ducky. She really thinks she is going to have a fantastic career in real estate and is starting a master’s program in something related to it. In the mean time, she doesn’t make enough to rent her company’s own apartments (lives with a bunch of female friends) and she could never buy a house at these DC area prices. Despite being in RE, she has no idea about what M2 is, whats happening with loan approvals, FNME/FMAC, etc. Clueless.
The lack of self awareness was amazing.
I’ve noticed the same thing about people in the FIRE sector. Recall that former coworker-turned-life insurance agent whom I dealt with last summer.
All I had to do was drop some stuff I learned from this and the Bogleheads board into our conversations, and he thought I was some sort of financial expert. He kept marveling over how much he’d learned from me.
Your former co-worker is different than this girl. She acted like I had no idea what I was talking about. She’s lived thorugh a major financial crisis, seen what’s happening in real estate, she’s being paid peanuts by a property firm and living with friends… but still unable to question anything or think for herself.
Actually, they have more in common than meets the eye. My former coworker was in a senior administrative position from which he was fired. (Don’t ask me why. All I know is that he got canned.)
Guy went from that to selling whole life insurance on commission. If that isn’t a recipe for the poorhouse, I don’t know what is. And he thought he’d really hit pay dirt by landing this gig at New York Life.
BTW, I saw him at a distance during the Tucson St. Patrick’s Festival. He was making a beeline to the beer tent with a buddy.
But for the fact that I was in conversation with someone else, I would have been tempted to ask if he was still with NYL. I doubt it. The washout rate for insurance agents is something like 85% during the first 18 monts.
I personally don’t expect anyone under 30 to grasp the intricacies of our schizophrenic/psychotic economy, if ever.
But by the same exceptations, nor should they EVER be in charge of anything significant. Sub 30yos in charge of depts, or VPs or directors or CEOs or large sums of money are bad news, with few, and I do mean FEW exceptions.
Housing prices hit 10 yr low… we’re back to 2002, people!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-prices-hit-10-low-131200327.html
“The housing market started off the new year with a thud. Home prices dropped for the fifth consecutive month in January, reaching their lowest point since the end of 2002.
The average home sold in that month lost 0.8% of its value, compared with a month earlier, and prices were down 3.8% from 12 months earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major markets.
Home prices have fallen a whopping 34.4% from the peak set in July, 2006.
“Despite some positive economic signs, home prices continued to drop,” said David Blitzer, spokesman for S&P. “Eight cities — Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and Tampa — made new lows.”
Housing prices hit 10 yr low… we’re back to 2002, people!
Unfortunately for me Colorado has been flat since 2001. I want it to drop to 1996.
I’m still seeing 2003-4 prices in my nabe, and I’m starting to see “Under contract” sickers on the few “For Sale” signs. Time will tell what will happen next: a flood of houses on the market … or will my neighbors continue to wait for higher prices before putting their houses on the market? There were almost no houses on the market last year in my hood.
Suburban prices may not recover IN OUR LIFETIMES, eh?
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/shiller-housing-chance-bottom-suburban-prices-may-not-161914444.html
“Shiller has become an authoritative voice on the housing market after making prescient calls about the housing bubble, before it burst in 2006. Before housing can bottom, the problems facing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac must be resolved, Shiller says in an interview with The Daily Ticker. There is speculation that Fannie and Freddie could sell bundles of foreclosed homes to hedge funds; NPR and ProPublica reported last week that both Fannie and Freddie are leaning toward principal mortgage write-downs and loan forgiveness.
As economists and housing insiders continue to analyze every grain of housing data, most would agree that housing will continue to drag down the overall economic recovery in the near future. Many young people are choosing to live at home for a longer period of time instead of buying. Moreover, would-be homebuyers are settling into modern apartments and condominiums, further hindering a housing rally. Shiller says the shift toward renting and city living could mean “that we will never in our lifetime see a rebound in these prices in the suburbs.”
A perpetually sluggish housing market, which Shiller believes has become “more and more political,” might push the country in a “Japan-like slump that will go on for years and years.”
New York area prices down 3.6% year-over-year, per the above.
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20120327/REAL_ESTATE/120329902&utm_source=Real%20Estate%20Daily%20RED%20Alert&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Newsletters
At that rate, they might be back to normal (for New York) in 15 years of so.
Bernanke: Feds actions avoided the collapse of the financial system and a second Great Depression.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-27/bernanke-says-forceful-response-prevented-worse-recession.html
I know many here don’t agree with him, though I do. Still, the question is would such a collapse of the financial system and wipeout of paper wealth have been worse off, in the long run, for most people, than where we are now headed?
The rich were saved. And now the rest will pay forever, with no gratitude in return.
the question is would such a collapse of the financial system and wipeout of paper wealth have been worse off,
We should have gotten our pound of flesh in exchange for the bank bailouts as in the Swedish model. (But without totally protecting the bondholders.)
Swedish banking rescue Wiki
During 1991 and 1992, a housing bubble in Sweden deflated, resulting in a severe credit crunch and widespread bank insolvency. The causes were similar to those of the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007-2008. In response, the government took the following actions:[1]
The government announced the state would guarantee all bank deposits and creditors of the nation’s 114 banks.
Sweden’s government assumed bad bank debts, but banks had to write down losses and issue an ownership interest (common stock) to the government. Shareholders at the remaining large banks were diluted by private recapitalizations (meaning that they sold equity to new investors). Bondholders at all banks were protected.
Nordbanken and Götabanken were granted financial support and nationalized at a cost of 64 billion kronor.[2] The firms’ bad debts were transferred to the asset-management companies Securum and Retriva which sold off the assets, mainly real estate, that the banks held as collateral for these debts.
When distressed assets were later sold, the proceeds flowed to the state, and the government was able to recoup more money later by selling its shares in the nationalized banks in public offerings.
Sweden formed the Bank Support Authority[3] to supervise institutions that needed recapitalization.
This bailout initially cost about 4% of Sweden’s GDP, later lowered to between 0-2% of GDP depending on various assumptions due to the value of stock later sold when the nationalized banks were privatized.
Sign calling for the “Swedish Solution”, Occupy Oakland, 2011
The economists Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman have proposed the Swedish experiment as a model for what should be done to solve the economic crisis currently affecting the United States.[4] Swedish leaders who played a role in devising the Swedish solution and have spoken about the implications for other countries include Urban Bäckström and Bo Lundgren.
Letting the banks implode would have had the virtues of making the responsible parties eat the crap sandwich, and eliminated the “need” for QE-1, QE-2 and possibly 3/depreciating the USD.
I was thinking of the Icelandic model. The banks are nationalized. Depositors are protected up to the insurance limits, but everyone else is told to go to hell, and all those executive pay contracts are voided.
GDP plunges, paper wealth is wiped out, economic hardship is massive. But no one is allowed to starve — government funds go to the poor first and foremost.
Three years later they are recovering, and bankers are being sent to jail.
How do you reconcile these statements regarding the U.S. approach:
“I know many here don’t agree with him, though I do.”
to the Icelandic one:
“Three years later they are recovering,…”?
Is it different in Iceland?
Is it different in Iceland?
Well, their economy is tiny, and their economic situation has almost no effect on the world’s economy, so it’s really a micro/macro thing when you’re comparing them to us.
“…a micro/macro thing when…”
So do you agree with Fisher that the systemically important financial institutions should be broken up, to make them more of a micro concern to the global economy not worthy of bailouts?
Eurozone = not so tiny…
ft dot com
March 27, 2012 7:02 pm
Time economists ate humble pie . . . again
By Stein Ringen
The euro has not collapsed in value. The eurozone has not broken up; Greece has not left nor been kicked out. For someone like myself, a careful reader of the Financial Times and other media, this is a bit of a surprise. I remember last year an avalanche of predictions of the coming of Armageddon. Greece certainly could not survive and contagion would pull other weak economies down.
Economists are no more likely always to agree than any other experts but there was a remarkable unanimity as the crisis unfolded: Europe was on the edge of the abyss; bold and rapid action was needed from strong governments.
Against this storm stood a remarkable woman, Angela Merkel, insisting no quick fix was available. She has been proved right. Steady work and steely brinkmanship have carved out for Greece the biggest ever writedown of government debt, in a sophisticated and complex deal.
Economists warned politicians not to dither. In the New York Times Paul Krugman poured scorn over Europe’s politicians, collectively, in terms that, had he used them about say, black people, he would have been all but up for incitement to racial hatred. What was needed, it was argued, was more “firepower”, higher “firewalls” and bigger “bazookas”, with no delay.
The implication of these calls for bold action was simple: Greece was in effect bankrupt; governments, notably Germany, would one way or another have to pay up if they wanted to save the euro. Ms Merkel’s line was different. Yes, Greece was bankrupt, but the solution was that Greece would carry as much as possible of its own debt, that private bondholders would be made to write down as much as possible, with speculators punished, and that other governments and the European Central Bank would contribute as little as possible.
Had the balance of opinion among economists prevailed, private bondholders, who had lent recklessly, would have been let off scot-free at European taxpayers’ expense. Why were so many commentators so careless? I have no problem with the “chief economists”, whose job is to protect the banking sector, but what about the independent academic economists?
…
“We should have gotten our pound of flesh…”
Being the fool that I am, to this day I still hold out hope.
Please explain how saving the rich from the consequences of epically bad investment decisions prevented the financial system from collapsing, instead of merely increasing the level of wealth concentration at the top.
I would think employing bailouts that encourage bad investments would increase the risk of financial collapse over the long run, but I don’t claim to be an expert.
I would think employing bailouts that encourage bad investments would increase the risk of financial collapse over the long run, but I don’t claim to be an expert.
You’ll never be wealthy PB because you can’t appreciate how the wealthy feel about wining and losing. Recall John Gage making a gentleman’s bet with Diana (Demi Moore) serving up the pink based on a coin toss, a million dollar bet; toward the end of the fling he cuts her loose, and gives her the “lucky dollar” coin.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQubL9r0qAQ
The problem was we were damned if we did and damned if we didn’t.
Why? Pensions. I’m not sure what percentage, but I know it’s WAY more than half of all pensions were tied up in Wall St. Letting it fail would have financially destroyed, if not outright killed, many seniors.
It was bad enough as it was.
The real crime is that we should have never been held hostage like this in the first place.
As I’ve said, they knew what they were doing. They sure as HELL knew.
Many ALEC-drafted bills pursue standard conservative goals: union-busting, undermining environmental protection, tax breaks for corporations and the wealthy. ALEC seems, however, to have a special interest in privatization — that is, on turning the provision of public services, from schools to prisons, over to for-profit corporations. And some of the most prominent beneficiaries of privatization, such as the online education company K12 Inc. and the prison operator Corrections Corporation of America, are, not surprisingly, very much involved with the organization.
What this tells us, in turn, is that ALEC’s claim to stand for limited government and free markets is deeply misleading. To a large extent the organization seeks not limited government but privatized government, in which corporations get their profits from taxpayer dollars, dollars steered their way by friendly politicians. In short, ALEC isn’t so much about promoting free markets as it is about expanding crony capitalism.
And in case you were wondering, no, the kind of privatization ALEC promotes isn’t in the public interest; instead of success stories, what we’re getting is a series of scandals. Private charter schools, for example, appear to deliver a lot of profits but little in the way of educational achievement.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/26/opinion/krugman-lobbyists-guns-and-money.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
Gov of by and for the elite.
Private charter schools, for example, appear to deliver a lot of profits but little in the way of educational achievement.
This is turning into a huge scandal in Pennsylvania. I heard more than a little bit about it from one of my former teachers.
“Private charter schools, for example, appear to deliver a lot of profits but little in the way of educational achievement.”
Shocked I tell. Just shocked.
This is the money quote
To a large extent the organization seeks not limited government but privatized government, in which corporations get their profits from taxpayer dollars, dollars steered their way by friendly politicians
Now consider this along with
1. The concentration of wealth in this country and
2. Citzens United
and try to picture where this combination will take the US.
The less BB worries, the more Mr Market worries, as a relaxed BB decreases the chance that QE3 will be instituted.
Stocks take a step back
Major U.S. indexes move lower, struggling for much of the session, after previous day’s big rally.
• Bernanke fretting less as banks are stronger
Wouldn’t it be an awesome irony if the Chinese economy ended up more capitalistic than the U.S.? I don’t see why it might not, provided their government stepped back and let private enterprise blossom. There is no reason the rich could not continue to invest in growing Chinese companies, without the heavy hand of government intervention slowing them down.
March 27, 2012, 10:42 p.m. EDT
Beijing receives criticism for market intervention
By Wang Shanshan and Wang Jing
GUANGZHOU, China ( Caixin Online ) — Scholars and company heads attending an economic forum on March 25 blamed excessive government involvement in economic affairs for structural problems in the world’s second-largest economy.
China’s economy is retreating to a crude growth model due to government market intervention and price controls, producing rent-seeking and corruption, said Wu Jinglian, a senior researcher at the State Council’s Development and Research Center. He was speaking at the Lingnan Forum sponsored by Sun Yat-Sen University’s Lingnan College and Caixin.
State-owned enterprises still have a heavy presence in the economy, which prevents the market from functioning effectively, Wu said.
Since 2003, China has made massive investments in capital-intensive industries to power economic growth, leading to problems like depletion of natural resources, damage to the environment and rising inflation following monetary oversupply, Wu said. As a result, consumer power remains weak due to slow income growth, he said.
Reform in China has entered a critical point and has met with resistance from officials whose power and interests have been infringed upon, the economist said. But fresh momentum for reform may come about when the government completes its leadership changes in 2013, Wu said.
“What the government can do is to meddle less,” Xu Xiaonian, a professor of China Europe International Business School, said. His remark drew applause at the forum.
…