Can’t say I am anywhere near running out of hand lotion these days, even though there seem to be plenty of economic worries afloat.
March 28, 2012, 3:18 a.m. EDT
Chinese shares tumble on earnings worries
By V. Phani Kumar
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Mainland Chinese shares extended their losses in afternoon trading Wednesday on mounting concerns about earnings and an economic slowdown. The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 2.7% to end at 2,393.25, while the Shenzhen Composite Index plunged 4.1% to 909.70 in late afternoon trading. The sell-off came a day after official data showed net income at the nation’s largest industrial groups dropped 5.2% in the first two months of the year. While few sectors were spared the sell-off, mining and metal stocks were hit especially hard. Aluminum Corp. of China dropped 5.8%, Jiangxi Copper Co. fell 5.5% and Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. lost 5.6% in Shanghai.
Are you sure that is a good idea? Maybe you should diversify into Vancouver.
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Comment by combotechie
2012-03-28 05:57:01
Nah, Vancover is too pricy. Austrailia is the place to invest, there and Victor Valley.
Comment by Little Al
2012-03-28 19:18:49
Victor Valley may have hit a bottom. You can get an excellent house for $100K and it’s within a suicide commute from L.A. if you absolutely hate life and are willing to commute 100 miles a day to start a family.
Guaranteed demand always. This pencils out landlords.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-03-28 19:30:14
it’s within a suicide commute from L.A. if you absolutely hate life
The subtext in Ben Bernanke’s third college lecture was clear: his Fed helped stop a second Great Depression.
Appearing before students at George Washington University on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve chairman contrasted his academic expertise—the depression—against his personal experiences.
“The Great Depression was much worse than the recent recession,” the former Princeton University professor said. “Without a forceful policy response, we would have had a much worse outcome.”
It’s a controversial claim among critics who say lax Fed oversight and loose monetary policy actually fed the housing bubble that triggered the 2008 financial collapse.
But Bernanke has used his return to the classroom to defend the central bank he now leads.
During his first two classes last week, he tore apart the gold standard and attacked claims that low interest rates had not fueled the rise in housing prices. In response, FreedomWorks, the tea party-affiliated group led by former US House Majority Leader Dick Armey, is sponsoring an event Thursday afternoon to rebut Bernanke.
If the Fed had not leapt into the crisis as the lender of last resort, Bernanke said Tuesday, the entire global economy would have melted down as was the case in 1929. “Suddenly, there was no trust whatsoever, even among the largest financial institutions,” he said.
After the panic was stemmed, the stock market and industrial production recovered much faster than they did during the depression, Bernanke told the class.
Of course, there was plenty of collateral damage. The economy dove into a sharp recession and 8.5 million Americans lost their jobs.
Bernanke claimed his hand was forced by the absence of legal and policy tools to handle the collapse.
“It was a very difficult and distasteful intervention,” he said. “There’s something fundamentally wrong with a system where companies are too big to fail…. we chose the lesser of two evils.”
…
Isn’t it pretty much SOP for policy makers and wannabe politicians to claim that any other approach besides their own would result in a monumental disaster?
Rick Santorum’s Campaign is out with this new ad that takes it right to Barack Obama: “Welcome to Obamaville.” It imagines a “small American town two years from now if Obama is re-elected.” The ad shows flashes of Iran with Nuclear Weapons, and Health Care under ObamaCare with long waiting lines and poor care. Perhaps Santorum is trying to convey to Republicans that this is what we can expect from him if he is the GOP Nominee.
‘The subtext in Ben Bernanke’s third college lecture was clear: his Fed helped stop a second Great Depression.’
This is an important point. IMO the disconnect is that the GD isn’t relevant - it’s ancient history. More relevant were the stock and housing bubbles, and policy responses, in Japan. If I’m right, the Fed is not only fighting an economic scenario that doesn’t exist, but is making the same mistakes Japan’s central bank and govt did.
I’ve been researching recent Fannie Mae data, and I hope to put a post together on it. But I came across this:
‘The housing bubbles of the 2000’s were not a “Made in America” phenomenon. As Professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff showed in their definitive book on the history of financial crises, many countries “had their own homegrown real estate bubbles” in the last decade.’
Please pay attention to Exhibit 3: Real House Prices in Germany, Japan, and the U.S., Q1 1985 – Q3 2011. Compare Japan and the US.
‘One of the advantages that the U.S. has going for it is that its territory is large and its economy diverse. As a result, there is a certain amount of diversification in home-price patterns across the country – some areas experienced more of a bubble, others less. On the bubble side, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has called the experience in California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada – labeled the “Sand States” for their beaches and deserts – a “Perfect Housing-Market Storm.’
‘The house-price increases in the Sand States are indeed more extreme than in the United States as a whole and California comes closely behind Ireland in terms of real house-price increases.’
“…not only fighting an economic scenario that doesn’t exist, but is making the same mistakes Japan’s central bank and govt did.”
THE WEEKEND INTERVIEW
October 18, 2008
Anna Schwartz Bernanke Is Fighting the Last War ‘Everything works much better when wrong decisions are punished and good decisions make you rich.’
…
How did we get into this mess in the first place? As in the 1920s, the current “disturbance” started with a “mania.” But manias always have a cause. “If you investigate individually the manias that the market has so dubbed over the years, in every case, it was expansive monetary policy that generated the boom in an asset.
“The particular asset varied from one boom to another. But the basic underlying propagator was too-easy monetary policy and too-low interest rates that induced ordinary people to say, well, it’s so cheap to acquire whatever is the object of desire in an asset boom, and go ahead and acquire that object. And then of course if monetary policy tightens, the boom collapses.”
The house-price boom began with the very low interest rates in the early years of this decade under former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.
“Now, Alan Greenspan has issued an epilogue to his memoir, ‘Time of Turbulence,’ and it’s about what’s going on in the credit market,” Ms. Schwartz says. “And he says, ‘Well, it’s true that monetary policy was expansive. But there was nothing that a central bank could do in those circumstances. The market would have been very much displeased, if the Fed had tightened and crushed the boom. They would have felt that it wasn’t just the boom in the assets that was being terminated.’” In other words, Mr. Greenspan “absolves himself. There was no way you could really terminate the boom because you’d be doing collateral damage to areas of the economy that you don’t really want to damage.”
Ms Schwartz adds, gently, “I don’t think that that’s an adequate kind of response to those who argue that absent accommodative monetary policy, you would not have had this asset-price boom.” Policies based on such thinking only lead to a more damaging bust when the mania ends, as they all do. “In general, it’s easier for a central bank to be accommodative, to be loose, to be promoting conditions that make everybody feel that things are going well.”
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, of all people, should understand this, Ms. Schwartz says. In 2002, Mr. Bernanke, then a Federal Reserve Board governor, said in a speech in honor of Mr. Friedman’s 90th birthday, “I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.”
“This was [his] claim to be worthy of running the Fed,” she says. He was “familiar with history. He knew what had been done.” But perhaps this is actually Mr. Bernanke’s biggest problem. Today’s crisis isn’t a replay of the problem in the 1930s, but our central bankers have responded by using the tools they should have used then. They are fighting the last war. The result, she argues, has been failure. “I don’t see that they’ve achieved what they should have been trying to achieve. So my verdict on this present Fed leadership is that they have not really done their job.”
What allows high house prices in general is a borrower who is able to borrow a large amount.
How were borrowers suddenly able to borrow larger and larger amounts than in previous years? Because lenders discovered a model which allowed them to originate those loans then sell them off, making a tidy commission. They stopped having to worry about repayment risk. So they made shoddy loans.
In effect, it was like being able to print monopoly money, then turn it in for actual currency.
“Because lenders discovered a model which allowed them to originate those loans then sell them off, making a tidy commission. They stopped having to worry about repayment risk.”
It also must have helped to know they were too big to fail, and hence due for bailouts at the moment the whole scheme collapsed.
Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-03-28 09:16:17
I don’t think “too big to fail” even crossed their minds.
Why worry about 5 years from now, when you get your cash up front?
Comment by oxide
2012-03-28 09:48:07
GS-fixer, the originators may not have known about too-big-to-fail, but the buyers on the secondary market certainly did. But they hedged anyway, with AIG.
Comment by Steve J
2012-03-28 12:19:24
AIG should have gone bankrupt instead of paying bonuses.
Comment by polly
2012-03-28 12:25:19
The Investment Banks (well, GS at at least) hedged the ones they bought for their own portfolios. They didn’t have to hedge the ones they securitized. That work doesn’t require them to own the loans at all, or if they do, then not for very long. The real secondary market buyers (pension funds in Norway) didn’t hedge because they didn’t know the bonds were going to go bad.
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2012-03-28 15:11:27
AIG should have gone bankrupt instead of paying bonuses.
“Because lenders discovered a model which allowed them to originate those loans then sell them off, making a tidy commission. They stopped having to worry about repayment risk.”
Isn’t this still going on? I seem to recall that the TBTF banks are still unloading garbage onto the the GSE’s, and the Fed, etc. Until the big banks are made to realize their losses, which means massive hits to their balance sheets for foolish loans, nothing will change.
Somebody here was talking about the easy money spigot having run dry, but nothing could be further from the truth. There are still 3.5% down mortgages available, and programs which allow people to borrow that measly 3.5%. And, it’s not just houses. I was just talking to a lady who works in finance at a Ford dealership. She said lenders are approving people with credit scores in the 400’s in order to move cars. Unreal.
Yes, and nobody gets very excited about it. Mention tarp and they blow a gasket, but the ongoing GSE loan guarantees dwarfs that.
‘Somebody here was talking about the easy money spigot having run dry, but nothing could be further from the truth.’
I’ve been trying to put a spotlight on that myself and even many HBBers don’t seem to care much. What does it mean when you have easy credit after an easy credit bubble? No one knows; it’s never happened before. Usually credit tightens, but not this time.
And, it’s not just houses. I was just talking to a lady who works in finance at a Ford dealership. She said lenders are approving people with credit scores in the 400’s in order to move cars. Unreal.
Mention this government backed automotive lending scam to the average Joe/Jane, and they go blank, maybe shrug their shoulders, “Oh well, they know what they’re doing.”
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2012-03-28 23:26:41
What does it mean when you have easy credit after an easy credit bubble? No one knows; it’s never happened before. Usually credit tightens, but not this time.
Ben, the answer to this seems pretty easy to guess, even if it has not happened this way before.
The easy credit bubble of the recent past was responsible for the mispricing of assets such as housing.
If easy credit is still occurring, then it is certainly causing mis-pricing of assets in the present—perhaps not as badly as at the peak of the housing bubble, but mis-priced nonetheless.
“The subtext in Ben Bernanke’s third college lecture was clear: his Fed helped stop a second Great Depression.’If I’m right, the Fed is not only fighting an economic scenario that doesn’t exist, but is making the same mistakes Japan’s central bank and govt did.”
1. I don’t buy the thesis that the FED and Japan made mistakes. The FED is using the fear of the great depression as a cover to funnel money to it’s owners, just as the bank of Japan did. The whole idea that these guys didn’t see it coming is absurd to me. The idea that they don’t know exactly what they are doing and how it will affect America is absurd to me. The guys at the top knew what and when was going to happen and how it was going to be handled. Follow the money. How did Hank Paulson handle his investments, how did Anthony Mozillo handle his investments. Who was invested in Paulson’s Hedge Fund? Which Fed Gov was purchasing Goldman Sach’s stock at the bottom? These are just the snippets we know about, my guess is the elites investments would show that a sizable percentage were in the no. Seriously this bubble could have been pricked at anytime but some people knew when it was going to happen.
Agree 100% that this was not just a US problem, but the credit bubble here created bubbles all over the world. If the US bubble hadn’t formed would we have seen such bubbles in other places, my guess is that there would have been fewer and they would have been smaller. Easy money here, created low interest rates which funneled money to other markets, it propped up manufacturing in other countries. When our bubble popped so did many of the bubbles build on top of it. Banks are Global now and have influence over many governments and central banks now work together.
‘The collapse of the Thai baht in July 1997 was followed by an unprecedented financial crisis in East Asia, from which these economies are still struggling to recover.’
‘Two characteristics common in countries that have experienced financial crises were present in a number of East Asian economies. First, financial intermediaries were not always free to use business criteria in allocating credit. In some cases, well-connected borrowers could not be refused credit; in others, poorly managed firms could obtain loans to meet some government policy objective. Hindsight reveals that the cumulative effect of this type of credit allocation can produce massive losses.’
‘Second, financial intermediaries or their owners were not expected to bear the full costs of failure, reducing the incentive to manage risk effectively. In particular, financial intermediaries were protected by implicit or explicit government guarantees against losses, because governments could not bear the costs of large shocks to the payments system (McKinnon and Pill 1997) or because the intermediaries were owned by “Ministers’ nephews” (Krugman 1998).’
‘The importance of implicit government guarantees in the most affected economies is highlighted by the generous support given to financial institutions experiencing difficulties. For example, in South Korea, the very high overall debt ratios of corporate conglomerates (400% or higher) suggest that these borrowers were ultimately counting on government support in case of adverse outcomes. This was confirmed by events in 1997, when the government encouraged banks to extend emergency loans to some troubled conglomerates which were having difficulties servicing their debts and supplied special loans to weak banks. These responses further weakened the financial position of lenders and contributed to the uncertainty that triggered the financial crisis towards the end of 1997.’
“…in others, poorly managed firmshouseholds could obtain loans to meet some government policy objective. Hindsight reveals that the cumulative effect of this type of credit allocation can produce massive losses.”
How about crazy subprime loans to turn every U.S. household into an Ownership Society household?
Comment by Blue Skye
2012-03-28 17:18:44
when the government encouraged banks to extend emergency loans to some troubled conglomerates which were having difficulties servicing their debts and supplied special loans to weak banks. These responses further weakened the financial position of lenders..
Wow, it sounds like a great article. How many thousands of people saved their bacons because they heard the voice crying out among the Ponderosas of beautiful Flagstaff. Many thousands of people saved themselves financially because there was some sort of affirmation out their in the public square that the housing bubble was not some strange mirage that might actually change the planet permanently. And of course it did but in ways we couldn’t initially imagine while it was in full swing.
The predictions here have been epic, and very few have been exactly right, but thank goodness its hear because many of you have been my sounding board for a lot of major life decisions. And thank God I’m still financially standing to some degree.
Suddenly, almost out of nowhere, bonds are back. Not Barry Bonds, but good ol’ investment-grade corporates and even those given-up-for-dead Treasury bonds.
It was just a week ago when the buzzards were circling around credit, especially Treasurys, declaring that a new bear market had begun because they were down for a couple of weeks. But you can never give up on skittish overseas investors’ love affair with earning a 0.2% yield on their two-year money.
Don’t be surprised if they squeeze the worrywarts with a bone-crushing rebound back to January levels so long as Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke keeps giving speeches about the weak underpinnings of the modest economic recovery.
No less a figure than Pimco co-founder Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund, was out on Tuesday with a call to action for credit. In his monthly letter, he argued that investors should not abandon bonds if total returns hover around 4% instead of 10%, adding that they should remain “critical components” of an investor’s portfolio as financial deleveraging around the world pushes down yields.
“The best way to visualize successful delevering is to recognize that investors are locked up in a financially repressive environment that reduces future returns for all assets,” he said.
(”Financial repression,” by the way, is the latest term of art for what I called yesterday “corporate socialism.” It’s the condition in which governments take the lead in directing financial return via extreme monetary and fiscal policy, rather than letting businesses and consumers duke it out — the process we old-timers nostalgically remember as “capitalism”).
…
If people appreciated the malfeasance involved in not separating deposit accounts from Wall Street’s betting operations, they would be in the streets.
The more I think about this most utterly basic reform, and the “difficulty” in enacting it, the more the corruption of government becomes apparent. The linking of deposit accounts to the betting arms is the mechanism which allows the banks to hold the economy hostage, and the mechanism which guarantees the continued flourishing of taxpayer bailouts (with handsome rewards for the executive teams) and too bit to fail. And which allows the current system to continue unchanged and unchecked.
When Iceland’s financial system collapsed, it did one thing - secure the deposit accounts and let the betting operations collapse under the bad bets.
Separate the deposit accounts from the betting arms - split them into multiple corporations - and force lenders to repayment significant repayment risk so there is no formula which allows them to game the system. If they loan goes bad, they suffer a significant net loss of money. These two reforms would lay the foundation for a much more sound financial system.
Will the FIRE sector constantly be looking for new ways to game the system? Of course. But with a strong regulatory apparatus which has the interests of the people first and foremost as its goal, they will be held in check.
“If people appreciated the malfeasance involved in not separating deposit accounts from Wall Street’s betting operations, they would be in the streets.”
Posted 39 minutes ago on March 28, 2012, 11:13 a.m. EST by OccupyWallSt
A short video collection of recent #OWS actions in NYC
Occupy these Upcoming Events!
See also, our separate posts on the March 29th Anti-NDAA action and the April 1st Brooklyn Bridge Commemoration March.
Every Day in March Noon-2:00pm
POPS - People Occupying Public Space!
Now at Union Square!
OWS inspired the world by maintaining a presence in Liberty Square – creating a viral action that spread across the country and the globe. POPS brings discussion, education and fun to the Union Square occupation every day. Tweet using #ows and #CultureOcc and find a full schedule of special events, speakers and performances at pops.nycga.net. Don’t miss Bernardine Dohrn and Bill Ayers on Friday March 30!
Thursday, March 29, 5:30-8:30pm
Protest Joe “Congressman Wall Street” Crowley’s 50th Birthday Fundraiser
Grand Hyatt Hotel, 109 East 42nd Street between Park Avenue and Lexington Avenue
With more trade negotiations underway, it’s vital that we let Congressman Crowley and other Wall Street Democrats know that they will be held accountable when they sell us out to the 1%! Sponsored by TradeJustice New York Metro & Occupy Wall Street Trade Justice Working Group. http://nycga.net/events/event/protest-joe-congressman-wall-street-crowleys-50th-b-day-fundraiser/
Thursday, March 29, 8:00pm - 10:00pm
Occupy University Horizontal Pedagogy Workshop
Public Atrium, 56th St and Madison Ave, Adjacent to Trump Tower
Sponsored by the Empowerment & Education working group. Discussion experiment/pedagogy workshop for Occupy University. Open to all. Horizontal/facilitated/consensus-model learning with a dose of problematization. http://nycga.net/events/event/occupy-university-horizontal-pedagogy-workshop-2-2012-03-29/
Friday, March 30. 2:00pm-4:30pm
Weekly Wall Street Marches — Spring Training
Liberty Square
Start Training for May Day and Join the Spring Resistance! Marches Every Friday, 2pm in Liberty Square! Trainings, skill shares, games, and theatrics from 2:00-3:30pm followed by a march to disrupt the 4:00pm NYSE closing bell with The Peoples’ Gong. Participants are encouraged to wear athletic gear, march with their affinity group, and use the street tactics discussed prior to the march. http://nycga.net/events/event/weekly-wall-street-marches/
Friday, March 30, 7:00pm - 10:00pm
Weekly Vigil for Solidarity with Syria
The Syrian Embassy, 820 2nd Avenue
This vigil will begin at 7pm and work towards an overnight vigil in front of the Syrian consulate, starting with a General Assembly to unite a community of solidarity behind Syria and rally together for the wants and needs of the Syrian people. We are offering this as an open forum to dialogue and educate. We will endeavor to have vigils like this every Friday until resolution is made. http://nycga.net/events/event/weekly-vigil-for-solidarity-with-syria-2012-03-30/
Friday, March 30, 11:45pm
Rap Battle: The People of New York vs. the NYPD
Union Square, south steps
Got beef with cops for enforcing a system of racist economic inequality? This Friday you’ll get to express that beef in a public forum where you won’t be arrested, the cops will have to listen you, and (unlike the status quo) the people ALWAYS WIN! https://facebook.com/events/373581626007714
…
I was an occasional visitor to the Occupy Tucson encampments until they got kicked out of their second location. On the positive side, the people were absolutely wonderful to talk with. There was quite a bit of, shall we say, dialogue taking place, but I found all of it to be quite respectful. Call it civil discourse at its finest.
On the negative side, I noticed that the freeloaders started to move in and overwhelm the camp. People who were much more active in the group noticed the same thing, and one of them gave me quite the earful one afternoon. Seems that on Thanksgiving weekend, free pizza was sent to the site. Wouldn’t you know it, word got out, and the free pizza eaters came from miles around.
I noticed the signs for the Occupy Ogden movement when we visited Utah family members over the holidays. Can’t say I was interested enough to drive to where the ten-or-so protestors were marching to bother making the effort.
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
No Social Contract? No understanding of Western Civilization or the US Constitution’s mission? Why? Because that understanding might interfere with political dogma?
Letter: Founding Fathers set up government as a social contract for the people September 27, 2011
Saginaw News Letters Stephen Collins
I have been following, with some interest, letters from citizens who are critical of liberals, who they brand as somehow being unwilling or unable to discuss the Constitution. They have relied upon the Constitution to criticize the federal government’s regulation of taxes, finance, business, trade and the overall conduct of the economy.
…I would like to direct their attention to several passages in the Federalist Papers, unarguably the most authoritative commentary on the Constitution and powers of federal government.
…In arguing for the ratification of the Constitution, James Madison, John Jay and Alexander Hamilton identify numerous republics throughout history that failed due to the existence of various factions destructive of these political societies.
• The Federalist No. 10 reads in part, “But the most common and durable source of factions has been the various and unequal distribution of property.”
• The Federalist No. 15 reads in part, “Why has government been instituted at all? Because the passions of men will not conform to the dictates of reason and justice, without constraint.”
• The Federalist No. 26 reads in part, “And I am much mistaken, if experience has not wrought a deep and solemn conviction in the public mind, that greater energy of government is essential to the welfare and prosperity of the community.”
• The Federalist No. 36 reads in part, “Happy it is when the interest which the government has in the preservation of its own power, coincides with a proper distribution of the public burdens, and tends to guard the least wealthy part of the community from oppression!”
Our Founding Fathers wisely saw the vesting of strong power to the federal government to regulate taxes, trade, commerce and finance as essential to the survival of the new republic. Clearly, government is instituted with the intention, in large part, to protect the poor and middle classes from the excesses of private business.
It has been my observation that one of the biggest threats to our way of life is big business. The overwhelming majority of the people of this republic believe that government is an absolutely necessary bulwark against the excesses of big business, and would not favor any less involvement in regulating these. The people of this republic should remain vigilant against the recent attacks on government regulations.
The people of this republic formed a social contract with the federal union for safety and protection; its power needs to remain strong. President Obama’s recent speech correctly cited the importance of government in the history of the republic.
Rio, the “federal union” has gone from aiding and abetting the dark side to becoming one with the dark side! Any supposed protection of the “least wealthy part of the community from oppression” is just so much window dressing.
See yesterday’s post about the ascendancy of sociopaths in government.
‘Round here it’s the EPA- and only the EPA- that keeps the coal barons from flattening the entire eastern half of the state and turning it into a vast strip mine. A perfect example of protecting not only “least wealthy part of the community from oppression”, but also everyone downstream, too.
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Comment by ahansen
2012-03-28 12:57:15
Regulations are democracy in action.
-Greg Palast
Comment by Little Al
2012-03-28 21:18:17
I love Palast. I saw him at the book fair at UCLA. He’s the last true muckraker in America, and thus basically unknown.
Comment by ahansen
2012-03-28 22:30:01
“…basically unknown….”
Which is a damned shame, if you ask me. His latest, Vulture’s Picnic, is a masterpiece of research and wry Elmore Leonard/Charles Bukowski-esque narrative.
Never much liked the oiligarchy to begin with, but after reading Palast’s masterful hit-job, am moved to the verge of mayhem whenever I see a BP commercial.
The fantasy is that either political party offers a real choice. It’s war, all the time, on borrowed money of course:
‘President Barack Obama is personally enamored with a recent essay written by neoconservative writer Bob Kagan, an advisor to Mitt Romney, in which Kagan argues that the idea the United States is in decline is false.’
…Kagan argues that the idea the United States is in decline is false.
I’m confident that things are looking great and getting better for the “neo-cons.” Their corruption now owns both sides of the isle in Washington DC, their bad gambles on Wall street are made good by the taxpayers, and their dubious lending on assets with phony appraisals are also guaranteed by the taxpayers. Our military is completely entrenched in the middle-east, and military spending will be the last to feel any budget cuts. It’s a win-win situation for these parasitic leeches.
If there is any proof that we are a nation of moralist phonies, it’s those tip jars. We force uninsured children to beg for medical treatment.
I can remember a lady begging for money to fund her heart transplant. Her name was Jeri Pause, and I used to see her out on the University of Arizona Mall. She was literally wasting away in public view, and no, she didn’t get the transplant. She died while waiting for a heart.
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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2012-03-28 11:50:59
I can remember a lady begging for money to fund her heart transplant. [...] She died while waiting for a heart.
I wonder what happened to the money that she collected?
Call me a cynic, but I really wonder how much of those types of collections ever goes toward the stated cause.
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-03-28 12:50:15
I wonder what happened to the money that she collected?
Three words: University Medical Center. That was the hospital that was treating her for her heart condition. They probably vacuumed up every last cent that she raised, and anything she might have had in her estate.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-03-28 12:53:18
She was literally wasting away in public view, and no, she didn’t get the transplant. She died while waiting for a heart.
“liberals” have no sense of humor. Well, maybe Steve Colbert. But the minute they get all serious about causes and the downtrodden and such, their sense of humor seems to go right out the window and then they become a buncha bluenoses with a grim determination to tell everyone what’s right and what’s wrong, what’s offensive, what’s just and unjust, how you should act and what you should say.
In other words, they become secular sanctimonious pricks, as opposed to the religious sanctimonious pricks.
a buncha bluenoses with a grim determination to tell everyone what’s right and what’s wrong, what’s offensive, what’s just and unjust, how you should act and what you should say.
It looks like you watched the Republican debates too.
“The Federalist No. 15 reads in part, “Why has government been instituted at all? Because the passions of men will not conform to the dictates of reason and justice, without constraint.”
Yet, somehow, these same passions, when mixed with largesse and profit, will never affect those in government. Such men and women (those in government) conform to the dictates of reason and justice.
That seems to be your default viewpoint, Rio. It also is untrue.
Yet, somehow, these same passions, when mixed with largesse and profit, will never affect those in government.
The writers of the Federalist Papers were well aware of such problems. One of the main goals of the Constitution was to have the various branches of government operate as a check on each other so as to limit such problems as much as possible.
But since money will always have some influence on government- as you state- what is your solution? No government?
One way of addressing the problem is to admit that our society is the problem, not corporations and not the governmnet.
We’ve lost our way. The same government vs corporation arguments are pointless. For all practical purposes, they are one and the same. Unfortunately, they’re alike in all the wrong ways.
And yes, there’s always been crooks, thieves, power mad zealots, etc., dating back to Rome, Visigoths, Ottomans, etc.
Our problem today is that there are so many of them, and they’re rewarded for their behavior financially, socially, stucturally, etc. That we allow crooks from Goldman to run around in our Cabinet is indicative as to what we’ve allowed to happen.
That it’s only the young who are being held financially accountable is also indicative.
Does it not strike anyone here how corrupt the powerful (i.e., older generations as a whole) have become? It’s gotten to the point that only the young are on the hook for debts…they don’t get to declare bankruptcy and “victimhood”…but their elders certainly do. All the time, it seems.
How can you assume my default viewpoint when in fact you miss my point? My point is that there IS a social contract in America between we the people and our government that has been violated. Allowing gross wealth-inequality, corporate dominance, a B.S. health-care system and off-shoring jobs are some of the violations.
The Constitution is one of the greatest proofs of the intent of the social contact.
Yes, but not necessarily your social contract, Rio.
Mandated purchases are not a social contract, unless you happen to agree with it.
Clearly, you don’t understand that.
What is the “social contract” mandated that everyone buy a Hummer? It very easily could, if Obamacare passes. Or if single-payer passes.
The social contract of The Constitution strongly favor the rights of individuals, not groups of like-minded people versus groups of other, different like-minded people.
None of your posts have given me reason to believe that you understand that.
The social contract of the USA is with and for the benefit of INDIVIDUALS. Period.
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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-03-28 15:19:27
Mandated purchases are not a social contract, unless you happen to agree with it. Clearly, you don’t understand that.
Well Poser, apparently you don’t understand much if you think I ever supported mandates to buy a product from a private company.
The social contract of the USA is with and for the benefit of INDIVIDUALS. Period
Solely for individuals right? And where do you come up with your propaganda?
Comment by Posers
2012-03-28 16:51:52
Of course you don’t mandate purchases of products from private companies (like insurance companies, which also is wrong).
But, of course you DO support mandated purchases from government entities, which in this country is illegal as per The Constitution.
By your thinking, a good portion (but not all) of the population could justifyably be mandated to buy a General Motors vehicle, since a part of that company is government owned.
How about everyone being mandated to by a HOUSE? How about that? Afterall, the federal government owns most of it now. So, therefore, everyone on this board should be forced to buy a house. And not necessarily the house you want, either. The house the government tells you you must buy.
There’s a reason why government-mandated purchases are illegal. Such constructs are anti-individual and anti-choice.
Comment by Blue Skye
2012-03-28 17:31:44
You do need to hoist that “social contract” sail and let us see the cloth. What is it? In your earlier reference it seemed to guarantee that noone would make less than $500 a week. That surely cannot be the contract in the constitution. They didn’t give a flip how much you earned, if you could afford food and shelter, much less for your neighbor to pay for it, IMO.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-03-28 18:05:07
But, of course you DO support mandated purchases from government entities, which in this country is illegal as per The Constitution.
Not all. Medicare and SocSec have been deemed Constitutional. Therefore a public buy in into Medicare would be Constitutional.
See how easy that was. It didn’t hurt at all.
justifyably be mandated to buy a General Motors vehicle,
You guys like to jump the shark no?
Comment by Posers
2012-03-28 18:59:04
It’s hurting 200 million people younger than age 50 with massive declines in living standards. Mission accomplished, apparently.
Yet, somehow, these same passions, when mixed with largesse and profit, will never affect those in government. Such men and women (those in government) conform to the dictates of reason and justice.
The difference is that those in gov can be removed by the population, no so for corporate America. Of course the elite have perfected a propaganda machine and a funding system for politics that unfortunately has a huge influence on politics. Get rid of Citizens united and publicly finance elections, and prevent consolidation of the press. Strip some of the wealth away from teh elite and strengthen the middle class. You would see huge changes in the US over time. We were at our best when the middle class was strong and corporate America diverse.
you do know anyone else could go through the federalist papers and cherry pick 5 excerpts from which the exact opposite conclusion could be derived?
My conclusion is that there IS a social contract.
So you can cherry pick 5 excerpts from the Federalist papers and prove that there is NO social contract in America between we the people and our government?
That is why I am out of this discussion entirely. I’d be delighted to participate once the terms we are using are clearly defined. You can use the phrase to mean anything from “government by consent of the governed” (not because God says so or by right of conquest) to a heck of a lot more than that.
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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-03-28 13:14:28
That is why I am out of this discussion entirely. I’d be delighted to participate once the terms we are using are clearly defined.
Then you will never join the discussion because this is not a contract signed and notarized. The terms of the social contract were not “clearly defined” by Socrates, Hobbs, Rousseau or Locke. Or if they were partially defined they were modified to fit the time of each predecessor. This is a philosophical, “the place in history” and societal evolution issue much more than a legal issue.
For example: Is healthcare a right or privilege? I say a modern-day right as most western countries say. So why was it not in the social contract of the Constitution? Because the founders thought healthcare not to be a right? I don’t think thas was why. I think health-care was not addressed in the constitution because healthcare in the 1780’s was not a big factor in their lives in that it was very cheap and limited. How much could doctors do? Bleed you as they did George Washington before he died? Heck, doctors didn’t even wash their hands back then. There were no expensive drugs or medical procedures. The poor man’s folk healthcare might have been better than the rich man’s and most people could afford most of what was available.
This is the type of issue that the evolving social contract addresses and deals with. First the issues are dealt with on a philosophical and practical level. Then laws are made to reflect the consent of the governed.
And it is also great progress to have those unaware of the social contract acknowledge its very existence.
The Associated Press March 27, 2012, 10:03AM ET
Home prices fell in January in most US cities
By DEREK KRAVITZ
More from BusinessWeek
WASHINGTON
Home prices fell in January for a fifth straight month in most major U.S. cities, as modest sales increases have yet to boost prices.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index released Tuesday showed that prices dropped in January from December in 16 of 19 cities tracked.
The steepest declines were in San Francisco, Atlanta and Portland. Prices increased in Miami, Phoenix and Washington. Price information for Charlotte was delayed and therefore not included in the report.
The declines partly reflect typical offseason sales. The month-over-month data are not adjusted for seasonal factors.
Still, prices fell in 17 of the 20 cities in January compared to the same month in 2011. The group’s nationwide index of prices has fallen 34 percent since the housing bust and is now at 2002 levels.
The continued drop in prices suggests the housing market remains weak, even after the best winter for home sales in five years and steady improvement in the job market.
“Despite some positive economic signs, home prices continued to drop,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s index committee.
Eight cities — Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and Tampa, Fla. — are now back at 2000 levels or earlier. Only Denver, Detroit and Phoenix posted year-over-year increases.
The continued drop in prices suggests the housing market remains weak, even after the best winter for home sales in five years and steady improvement in the job market.
Mass. home sales rise in February
February home sales rose 33 percent in Massachusetts when compared to the same month a year ago, a sign that the statewide rebound in the housing market is “starting to look pretty solid,” the Warren Group reported Wednesday.
I refuse to play along with the MSM semantics. House prices are stabilizing when they fall. Phoenix and Florida are further along to recovery than Massachusetts, for example. But when I see with my own eyes, hundreds of houses being bought sight unseen, in a few hours, and then I learn some of it is Canadian home equity loan money, I have doubts about prices.
It’s really not hard to understand; speculation is a sign of market weakness, not market strength. So what does wild speculation on borrowed money mean?
Tha vast majority of voters — and ratings eyeballs — are homeowners, Ben. For them, rising house prices are an improvement. Disagree or not, the MSM is going with the majority.
‘As if to tweak the noses of housing-sector pessimists, the November U.S. housing starts report released on Dec. 20 revealed another stellar performance: a rebound of 5.3% on the month, to a 2.123 million annual pace, from a revised 2.017 million in October (2.014 million previously). Building permits rose 2.5%, to a solid 2.155 million pace, from a 2.103 million rate in October (revised from 2.071 million). ‘
‘As some argued with strength in the October new-home sales report, the initiation of sold but unstarted homes — which is of growing importance for these monthly measures — likely contributed to strength in the figure, as did rebuilding efforts in the aftermath of Katrina.’
‘Residential construction in the quarterly GDP reports grew at a 10% rate through the first half of 2005 and is likely to post the same 10% rate in the third quarter once these figures are revised upward again in the final GDP report for the quarter. As it stands, Action Economics expects 13% real growth in residential construction in the fourth quarter, which would mark an acceleration into yearend. Virtually no evidence points to any wavering in this sector, despite pessimists’ efforts to keep finding signs of weakness.’
March 28, 2012
‘Housing prices continue to fall in the United States but that was not enough to keep home builder stocks such as KB Homes, PulteGroup and DR Horton from continuing to rise. Year to date, DR Horton is up 25.36%. KB Homes is up 43.56% for the new year. Over the same period, PulteGroup has risen 43.58%. As detailed in a previous article on, one analyst sees PulteGroup rising another 40%.’
‘Housing prices continue to fall in the United States but that was not enough to keep home builder stocks such as KB Homes, PulteGroup and DR Horton from continuing to rise.’
But when I see with my own eyes, hundreds of houses being bought sight unseen, in a few hours, and then I learn some of it is Canadian home equity loan money, I have doubts about prices.
Canadian HELOC money? Haven’t we already seen this movie, except with American HELOC money playing in the starring role?
There is no reason you can’t have bidding wars in areas which have recently undergone steep declines. In fact, one might argue that bidding wars coupled with homes that endlessly sit on the market with no offers are both entirely consistent with extreme price volatility. In the former case, homes priced with a listing or reserve price below market value attract multiple offers; in the latter case, a seller who is severely underwater on what he owes sets a price above market and attracts no offers.
By contrast, a stable market with widely-understood market values is unlikely to see sellers pricing their homes far off from list price.
IMO the most important thing to consider is inventory and financing. Shadow inventory went from something the ‘experts’ considered a conspiracy theory, to a regular factor in even NAR reports.
‘Falling visible and shadow inventory, combined with a dearth of new-home and apartment construction during the past three years, assure that rents will continue to rise, with likely home price increases in 2012,” Yun said.’
What about financing? Yesterday I posted a story on a track coach using govt loans to bid on $300k houses with zero down.
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Comment by Professor Bear
2012-03-28 09:01:11
“…from something the ‘experts’ considered a conspiracy theory,…”
I think I may be due some credit or blame for getting that discussion going, depending on which side of the issue you placed your bets.
“…with likely home price increases in 2012,” Yun said.’…”
For how many more years will the serial bottom callers have to ignore falling prices before their stopped-clock prediction for price increases will finally materialize?
Comment by measton
2012-03-28 09:32:59
I picture a dried up turnip with different business sectors all trying to draw blood off of it. There is no more money.
I read a news report of bidding wars in bay area just last week ??
Bidding wars is probably a little extreme but there have been a few stories on some Palo Alto properties getting into them…But the truth is that in many locations around the Silicon Valley, multiple offers on the same property are fairly common and just because there are multiple offers it does not necessarily mean that the final price was well above the asking price…
High Profile Family Seeking Nanny/Governess (Oyster Bay, Long Island)
High profile couple looking for a fit, active, and sports-minded live-in nanny to care for their children. The children are 12, 10, 8 year old triplets, 2.5 years, and 4 months old. The family lives in NY and the nanny quarters include a separate house in town. The family employs four nannies throughout the school year and five nannies in the summer months.
Debbie Dolan Sweeney is the matriarch of a horse-loving family. A director at Bethpage-based Cablevision Systems, Dolan Sweeney, 47, learned her competitive drive as a showjumper.
She twice won the prestigious Hampton Classic (1995 and ‘97). And she met husband Brian Sweeney on the horse show circuit. The couple has seven children—and an eighth on the way.
So while Debbie Dolan Sweeney won’t be able to compete at this year’s Hampton Classic, which begins August 28, her husband and four of her children will. Triplets Hellen, Sean and Corinne, each 7, will be showing at the Hampton Classic. Brendan, 2, will participate in Lead Line.
May be not for the first child and you have been trying for years, but seventh or eighth, it’s definitely old. I read somewhere that the rich and poor mirror their behaviors. This is a perfect example.
Pretty much, except one rich person can inflict their mistakes on thousands of people whereas one poor person cannot.
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Comment by Posers
2012-03-28 14:50:14
Really? I had no idea that those who have assassinated world leaders were universally wealthy. Princip was rich? John Wilkes Booth was rich? This I did not know.
Foreclosure Deal Credits Banks for Routine Efforts
In February, JPMorgan Chase donated a home to an Iraq war veteran in Bucoda, Wash., and Bank of America waived the $140,000 debt that a Florida man still owed after the sale of his foreclosed home. Over the last year, Wells Fargo has demolished about a dozen houses in Cleveland.
Banks do things like this — real estate transactions that do nothing to prevent foreclosure — all the time. But beginning this month, they can count such activities as part of their new commitment to help people stay in their homes.
That commitment comes under the landmark $25 billion foreclosure abuse settlement between the government and five major banks announced last month. The settlement promises that of the $25 billion, the banks will give $17 billion “in assistance to borrowers who have the intent and ability to stay in their homes,” according to a summary of the settlement. But more than half of that money can be used in ways that will not stop foreclosures, including some activities that are already standard bank practices.
“The $17 billion is supposed to be the teeth of this settlement,” said Neil M. Barofsky, the former inspector general for the Treasury’s bank bailout fund known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program. “And yet they are getting all this credit for practices that they do every day.”
Speaking of JP Morgan, is there anything to this “news” item?
U. S. media covers up
EXPLOSIVE Back Breaking News JP Morgan-MF Global-Euro Gate Escalates
by Tom Heneghan
International Intelligence Expert
Found at - My Space.com
Sunday March 25, 2012
UNITED STATES of America - It can now be reported that the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking has new evidence showing that JP Morgan had a $200 million overdraft aka a second margin call on the London LIFFE Exchange three days before the MF Global bankruptcy fiasco was triggered.
…
Reminds me of a dear, deceased friend who was a philanthropist in the finest sense of the word. My friend was renowned for living very frugally so that he could donate as much money as possible.
And, oh, did he ever. A lot of local organizations really benefited from his estate.
Any-hoo, I once attended a luncheon recognizing him for funding student scholarships. He seemed a bit befuddled by all the plaudits he was getting. At one point, he looked around at the room full of people and said, “I can’t help thinking that you’re rewarding me for what I ought to have done.”
I seem to remember reading somewhere that Obama double-crossed Vladimir on something or other, much to Vlad’s shock. I wish I could remember what it was, exactly.
Difference between Shrubbie and Bammy is, with Shrubby you knew he was gonna screw ya, he just about told you so. Bammy is all smiles and fists full of vaseline.
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Comment by butters
2012-03-28 07:57:55
Lesser or the two evils or the better of the con men?
Comment by Steve J
2012-03-28 12:24:01
I don’t think W was smart enough to know who was going to get screwed. Cheney on the other hand…
Seriously? Of all the things in the world to criticize him over you choose eye contact and teleprompter? Are you spoon fed this stuff?
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Comment by oxide
2012-03-28 09:56:40
Are you spoon fed this stuff?
Is this a trick question?
Comment by goon squad
2012-03-28 10:27:07
If it makes a Drudge headline it must be newz, right?
Comment by butters
2012-03-28 11:15:27
No person in the history has abused Teleprompters like this President. I must speak against it and you should, too.
Comment by measton
2012-03-28 18:47:04
Care to provide proof of this.
Obama has given many interviews and is well spoken and obviously knowledgeable. The teleprompter BS is to convince the neanderthals on the right that the teleprompter is the only reason Obama can speak. If it were that easy GW would not have made such an idiot of himself on so many occasions.
Obama can’t make eye contacts. He scans faces left to right just like he does with teleprompters.
I’ve heard that Obama has uncorrected far-sightedness. Which may explain his difficulties with eye contact. Guy probably needs a set of glasses, but like a lot of public figures, he’s hesitant to actually get ‘em. He’s probably worried about what glasses would do to his image.
What’s Sister Sarah up to these days? Must be having a real shock lately to see her non-endorsement endorsement Newt doing so well in the primary. No future as a king maker nor as a television host/actor. The bubble really popped this time.
Bloomberg - Britons see disposable incomes plunge most since 1977
“Real household disposable income fell by 1.2 percent, the Office for National Statistics said today in London … The drop in 2011 disposable income followed a 0.2 percent decline in 2010, marking the first back-to-back fall in real incomes since the early 1980s recession.”
And from the LA Times - To Britain’s metal thieves, nothing is sacred
“Like hungry locusts, metal thieves have repeatedly attacked St. Mary’s Church, swooping down on its roof in the dead of night and stripping away large sections of its Victorian era lead cladding … Thieves in Britain are ripping up railway and telephone cables, prying off manhole covers and carting away aluminum access ramps for the disabled. Children shiver in schools where heating pipes have been stolen.”
Cueing up the Smiths’ song Vicar in a Tutu, “lifting some lead off the roof of the holy name church”
As you well know Colorado, real poverty is tied to a lot more than petty theft. The elites in Mexico don’t live in walled guarded compounds and drive around in armored cars for nothing. We are moving in that direction. When I can’t feed my family you can bet I’ll be joining the animals as well.
Agreed, but I was speaking in the context of a 1st world society that has social safety nets.
A Mexican anecdote:
My brother is a graduate of ITESM, (AKA Tecnologico de Monterrey or simply “El Tec”) which is considered to be Mexico’s top university. Tec grads are always supposed to be able to find jobs.
Anyway, a friend of my borther, also a Tec grad, was mugged. As he was handing over his wallet, he recognized his mugger, who turned out to be a classmate from El Tec. When the mugger recognized him he apologized and returned his wallet.
That a Tec grad had to resort to mugging just went to show how bad things are down there. Curiously, the Mexican gov’t crows that unemployment is only 4%. I guess their labor dept is even more creative with the numbers than our own.
We’ve been watching Little Dorrit, what an absurd idea to have a prison to lock up debtors. Tax payers paying taxes to keep people who owe debts from ever being able to pay them off.
MF Global Holdings Ltd. Chairman and Chief Executive Jon S. Corzine was in direct contact with J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM +0.62%) & Co. officials about a large transfer of customer funds to the bank shortly before the securities firm collapsed, according to prepared testimony from a J.P. Morgan lawyer for a House subcommittee hearing Wednesday.
The testimony by Diane Genova, deputy general counsel for J.P. Morgan, provides additional details about a transfer of $175 million in MF Global customer funds to a J.P. Morgan account on Oct. 28. That move is the subject of scrutiny as investigators hunt for clues about how MF Global firm lost about $1.6 billion in customer funds.
Ms. Genova’s testimony, which hadn’t been publicly released as of this morning, is expected to take place late this afternoon. The hearing, scheduled to begin at 2 p.m. Eastern, will be the House subcommittee’s third hearing on MF Global.
Ms. Genova told the subcommittee in her prepared testimony that J.P. Morgan discovered on Oct. 28 overdrafts in foreign-exchange clearing accounts managed by MF Global’s U.K. affiliates. Mr. Corzine and other officials at MF Global were notified about the overdrafts, she added.
MF Global assured J.P. Morgan that the overdrafts would be covered, according to Ms. Genova’s testimony.
The overdraft threatened J.P. Morgan’s ability to help fund an auction of about $4.9 billion in government and corporate debt, Ms. Genova is expected to tell lawmakers at Wednesday’s hearing. Without that funding, MF Global’s finances would have been in severe jeopardy.
“Thus, when this was raised with Mr. Corzine on Friday morning, he readily agreed that it was important for MF Global to cover the overdrafts, and he assured J.P. Morgan executives that MF Global had ample funds to cover the overdrafts,” Ms. Genova wrote in her prepared remarks.
By 11 a.m. Eastern that Friday, MF Global had transferred enough funds to cover the overdraft in the U.K.
But J.P. Morgan noticed that the transfer was tied to shifting $200 million from a customer-segregated account to an MF Global account in the U.S. In response, the New York bank determined that due to “the financial stress facing MF Global…it would be prudent and appropriate to ask MF Global to confirm that these transfers had been made in compliance” with Commodity Futures Trading Commission rules governing customer accounts, according to Ms. Genova’s testimony.
On Friday afternoon, J.P. Morgan “reached out to Mr. Corzine to explain J.P. Morgan’s understanding of how the London overdrafts had been covered by a series of transfers originating with a withdrawal of funds from a customer segregated account” and to ask for a confirmation in writing that the transfer came from MF Global’s own funds.
MF Global didn’t return a letter asking for such confirmation, she added. So J.P. Morgan contacted MF Global’s deputy general counsel, Dennis Klejna. Mr. Klejna, former head of the enforcement division of the CFTC, assured J.P. Morgan that the transfer represented excess funds in the customer accounts. The only concern, Mr. Klejna explained, was that the letter was too broad, according to Ms. Genova’s testimony.
Mr. Kejna couldn’t be immediately reached for comment. On Saturday, J.P. Morgan sent a more specific letter seeking reassurances about the fund transfer, but the bank never received the signed letter back.
…
Fundamentals for gold may remain solid, but it is ripe for the picking by central banks with printing press technologies and carte blanche to trade whatever assets they please to manipulate the price.
March 28, 2012, 10:09 a.m. EDT Gold lower after failing to touch $1,700
Analysts see support for higher prices, however
By Claudia Assis and Virginia Harrison, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold futures traded lower Wednesday, falling in step with most other commodities as the metal still reeled from failing to trade above $1,700 an ounce in the previous session.
Gold for April delivery (GCJ2 -0.68%) slipped $9, or 0.5%, to $1,675.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Stock Exchange.
The metal shot higher earlier this week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signalled U.S. interest rates would remain at current ultra-low levels for a few years.
It ended modestly lower on Tuesday, however, after being a few dollars away from the psychologically important $1,700 an ounce.
Fundamentals for gold remain solid, analysts said.
“Low interest rates and longer-term inflationary pressures should remain supportive for gold prices,” strategists at Barclays Capital said.
…
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks edged between small gains and losses Wednesday, hemmed in by a disappointing report on durable-goods orders.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA -0.26%) fell 19 points to 13,177. The S&P 500 (SPX -0.34%) lost 3 points to 1,409. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP -0.20%) added 1.6 point to 3,122.
..
I remember when the PPT was considered tinfoil hat territory by some on the blog. But in light of the government’s overt attempts to provide price supports for home prices, food prices and influence the price of oil, why wouldn’t it intervene in the stock market?
The politicians’ main goal is not a fair and efficient allocation of resources. It is re-election. And manipulating markets which will allow for that short term goal is something that they would look upon quite fondly.
Isn’t it funny how the oil companies don’t try to undercut each other, in order to increase market share? The automakers finally figured this out, that it’s better to sell fewer cars if they have higher prices and hence fat profit margins.
The theory of elasticity says no. Because there is no substitute for oil, they can charge as much as they want and, at least in the short-run, demand will not falter. Cars, on the other hand, are an elastic good, (at least when you compare one brand to the next), because there are many substitutes. Car manufacturers would do well to lower their prices and increase revenue through quantity sold rather than assuming quantity demanded will not be effected by higher prices, because it will.
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Comment by In Colorado
2012-03-28 13:04:34
“Car manufacturers would do well to lower their prices and increase revenue through quantity sold rather than assuming quantity demanded will not be effected by higher prices, because it will.”
They tried that game, and many lost their shirts. Sales are 60-70% of what they used to be, yet the big three (and others) are very profitable now, even as the sales mix is shifting away from trucks.
Comment by wittbelle
2012-03-28 16:33:56
Yeah, I’m not sure that economic theories hold a lot of water because they all depend on the whole ceteris paribus thing…
Consumption is at a twenty year low where? People outside the US also use gasoline.
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Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-03-28 12:48:55
Sorry. Meant here.
Despite the fact that the world is a global market, local prices are still affected by local conditions.
US gasoline consumption has been on a decline for 19 years. Our current increase in prices is due to one thing an done thing only: oil companies who are deliberately closing refineries and exporting oil.
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-03-28 12:52:11
Our current increase in prices is due to one thing an done thing only: oil companies who are deliberately closing refineries and exporting oil.
Like the oil refineries in and near Philadelphia, for example. Great deal of news coverage about that topic while I was back east. Suffice it to say that the locals aren’t happy.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-03-28 13:06:08
US gasoline consumption has been on a decline for 19 years.
Plus they are exporting surplus gasoline.
Comment by Posers
2012-03-28 14:59:25
Well, let’s see. Not a single new refinery ALLOWED to be built in the USA since 1979. Perhaps that’s why refineries are being closed - obsolete.
Well, let’s see again. Not a single new Nuclear power plant ALLOWED to be built since 1979. Only now are two new plants being built - 1 in Georgia and one in S.Carolina. Many nuclear plant sin the United States ate now aged 50+.
You reap what you sow.
Obsolesence followed by high prices followed by lots of finger pointing at oil companies who aren’t ALLOWED to expand.
Meanwhile, the dollar continues to lose value as the printing press stays on - yet this too is the fault of the oil industry.
Where’s all the infrastructure we were promised?
Where is the push for building thousands of nat gas facilities?
Still, it doesn’t occur to you that the Federal Reserve’s printing press and the devaluing dollar has nothing to do with increasing oil prices (even in light of decreasing use).
$8/week? That’s two gallons, which even with 20 mpg is 40 miles. That would imply that the average RT commute is 8 miles (or less), which I find hard to believe.
16 x 5 = 80 miles. So unless they are driving a Prius I don’t see how they could do it on 2 gallons. Plus if your commute is that short your mpgs will be lower due to warm up time and the higher percentage of stop and go “city driving”.
I would like to see which Census data the author looked at. I suspect his number includes the vast numbers of poor, undocumented, college kids, and others who don’t drive to work. Zeros bring down an average fast.
The market is “starting to stall out on us,” says Hugh Johnson, chairman of Hugh Johnson Advisors. He tells MarketWatch Radio’s Larry Kofsky that “a lot of professional investors are very worried” that we may have come too far, too fast, and that “they’re having trouble encouraging themselves to commit more money to the market.”
Markets have been preoccupied with Portugal, but the real linchpin to the success of the euro project in the short term is Spain. Vincent Cignarella explains why on Markets Hub. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)
‘the real linchpin to the success of the euro project in the short term is Spain’
And next up is Italy.
Funny they are still talking about ‘the success of the euro project’, when it’s falling in on their heads.
‘Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev has been overthrown after a coup by Communist hardliners. In a televised broadcast, the eight coup plotters, who include the heads of the army, the KGB and the police, said they were saving the country from a “national catastrophe”.
I must say that I was fortunate to have been stable in one rental for 8 yrs before buying. moving is definitely the pits. Still trying to get everything out of the rental. It’s like a bad dream; it just never seems to get empty. Plus the only two days I could get help it rained like hell and the only room where I am replacing the carpeting was to be done today and it rained until 6 am today.
Worst was the other morning when I went into the garage in my PJ’s and found myself home alone locked out of the house and no cell phone. Luckily they had a doggie door for one of those little rat dog that I was able to pry up and barely stick my hand through with an extension cord. I made a loop with it and blindly tossed it in the handles direction until it caught (pull down type) and I could open the door. Great idea until I stood up with the shortened cord in hand and er locked the door again. The second time I got it right.
Home prices fell to new lows in January, but the rate of decline appeared to be easing, offering the latest hint that prices may be at or near a bottom.
Prices dropped 0.8% in the three-month period that ended in January, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index that tracks 20 U.S. metro areas. While that lowered the index to levels not seen since the end of 2002, the monthly decline improved from a drop of 1.1% in December and 1.3% in November.
House prices tend to weaken during the winter months, when sales activity slows and the share of “distressed” home sales, such as foreclosures, rises. After adjusting for seasonal factors, prices were flat in January compared with December.
Compared with one year ago, home prices fell 3.8% in January. That also represented an improvement over the 4.1% year-over-year decline for December.
…
The squad should stop listening to you nattering nabobs of negativism and listen to facebook Realtor® and buy an overpriced POS 3/1 in a marginal nabe in Denver, because inventory is dropping and prices are rising?
Go for the gusto and get a shack inBroomfield. What’s 400K when you can get a home worthy of your wonderfulness? And they aren’t making more land in Broomfield, you know?
Broomfield, Thornton, Westminster, all examples of soulless sprawlburbia that the squad would never stoop to visiting, let alone live in. Being stuck in traffic on US 36 while en route to Rocky Mountain National Park (the squad’s *rented* back yard, leased for only $40/year) is as much time as I’ll ever be forced to spend in Broomfield…
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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2012-03-28 12:06:51
Rocky Mountain National Park (the squad’s *rented* back yard, leased for only $40/year)
Rented?? Nah, you own that. But you still have to pay to visit it…
Comment by In Colorado
2012-03-28 12:51:50
Broomfield, Thornton, Westminster, all examples of soulless sprawlburbia that the squad would never stoop to visiting, let alone live in
That’s probably what attracts the managerial class to live there.
But it could be worse: Aurora.
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-03-28 14:33:37
We miss our house at the north edge of Westminster. But not the location so much…just the house.
The aviation business, for flight crews and maintenance people is becoming a bigger Charlie Foxtrot all the time. Pilots and Flight attendants are working longer hours for less money, on airplanes that are getting older and less reliable, with inspections and repairs being completed by God knows who.
In the aviation business as a whole, if a job satisfaction survey was taken, I’d be surprised if the “Totally” and “Somewhat” satisfied numbers reached into the single digits.
Fuel prices are going up, and airplane operators are compensating for it by cutting salaries.
I’ve heard many people bitch about “old, hagged out, flight attendants”. You know why they are all old? Because the 20 somethings that are smart enough to pass the tests are also smart enough to go do something else with their lives. Ditto the pilots and maintenance guys.
More/longer hours being stacked on people, in an environment that allows for ZERO errors, for less pay. Practically everyone I know in the aviation business are working part-time jobs on the side. My former boss, an ATP with several thousand hours in business jets, quit flying altogether after he got his CDL. He can make more money driving trucks, doesn’t have to get up at 3am to got to the airport and do flight planning, and he isn’t away from home 2-3-4 night a week. His story is becoming more common all the time.
The few new guys that managed to find jobs aren’t any better. Mentoring is a thing of the past. Guys with no experience and no training are being sent out to BFE to work airplanes on their own.
Start with the natural, unavoidable stresses of the job, lack of sleep due to long commutes, and add to that financial stress, and you are going to see a lot more of this in the future. Of course the FAA and NTSB will do studies and reports pointing the finger at the “irresponsible”, but nothing will be done until a bunch of people start dying.
Then, all you will hear is “nobody could see it coming”. Infrastructure isn’t just facilities and equipment, it’s also the skill and expertise to operate the equipment in a safe, proficient manner.
Watch what is happening with the Flight Attendants, commuter airline pilots/mechanics, and the Air Cargo people. They are the people getting screwed the worst, so consider them the “canaries in the coalmine”
I’ve heard many people bitch about “old, hagged out, flight attendants”. You know why they are all old? Because the 20 somethings that are smart enough to pass the tests are also smart enough to go do something else with their…
What test?
Its all about seniority. Some companies like AA, you have to have 15 years to hold a position as a Flight Attendant. In three months it will be 20 years.
My oldest daughter considered being a flight attendant for a second tier airline (Frontier). When she saw how low the pay was, she passed. It was lucky ducky wages.
I recently flew Southwest, and was struck by how happy their flight attendants seemed with their jobs. Heck, one lady was professional-quality comedian. Maybe she was doing that on the side, I don’t know.
OTOH, a former boss jumped quite a few hoops in order to get a job at Southwest. He didn’t love working weekends at the Tucson airport check-in desk, so he quit after, oh, a couple of years. Not nirvana for him after all.
BTW, I’m told, SWA has something like 13% turnover every year. Don’t know how that compares with the rest of the industry, but there it is.
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Comment by In Colorado
2012-03-28 13:08:26
I believe that pay at Southwest isn’t all that bad.
Comment by Pete
2012-03-28 14:00:24
“BTW, I’m told, SWA has something like 13% turnover every year. Don’t know how that compares with the rest of the industry, but there it is.”
My observation is that their employees are younger on average, so a higher turnover might result. But you’re right about the Southwest FAs–they’re into their jobs, and it’s refreshing. ISTR reading a few years ago that their pay starts around $14/hr (though I think the actual pay is based on the number of miles in the air you work).
SWA deliberately targets as hires “very smart but disgruntled” former teachers particularly from public schools. The kinda people that loathe unions with a vengeance (and for good reason.)
It then treats them very well. Including freedom to improvise within the rules and gives them equity in the company.
This brought to you from the random department of FPSS’s “economic facts for the investment types”.
They know what they’re doing (and just for the record, I have no position in SWA not that you care.)
Comment by exeter
2012-03-28 18:09:00
…. well played….. well played.
Comment by Little Al
2012-03-28 19:15:37
People are desperate for any kind of job and the job is willing to work them like slaves until they quit because there is only 2 million more candidates who will scoop up the job. Welcome to the new slavery fellow American paeons. We’re all in this together so we better behave now.
This guy was fired from AA for this website and the exposure it gives to the dark side of the airline industry, in particular AA’s unethical business practices, (RioAmericaninBrazil: Read “completely ethical”). He’s a hoot and very committed to AA’s eventual rebirth as the majestic airline of yesteryear.
In 30 years we’ve gone from a situation where everyone in the industry was overpaid to a situation where everyone is underpaid.
The airlines have collectively lost money for investors for years, so no one wants to finance their planes.
And cheap oil is a thing of the past.
Air transport is going to get more dangerous, more expensive, more miserable, or all three. Fortunately we’re punting on intercity rail, so the customers will have no choice.
Sorry renters and those who are current on your mortgage - no $100,000 obama lottery for you…
————————————–
The $26 billion crapshoot
CNN Money | March 28, 2012 | BY LES CHRISTIE
Homeowners hoping the $26 billion foreclosure abuse settlement would mean big savings on their mortgages were mostly disappointed. Even though a million borrowers will have their principals slashed by as much as $100,000 or more, most are not eligible for a workout simply because the bank that issued their mortgages, didn’t hold their mortgages.
During the housing boom years of the early 2000s through 2007, about 20% of loans went into the bank’s own portfolios. The rest were sold off, either to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac or to investors.
Only loans held by the banks and some of their investors will be modified. The rest of the borrowers will be left out in the cold.
“It’s not as long a shot as winning the lottery but there’s a lot of chance involved,” said Guy Cecala of Inside Mortgage Finance.
“The rest were sold off, either to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac or to investors.”
10000 Maniacs
Because The Night lyrics
C’mon now, try n’ understand
The way you feel under their command
Work out plan? as the sun descends?
They can hurt ya now, can hurt ya now, can hurt ya now…
Because your loan belongs to Fannie
Because your house belongs to us
Because your loan belongs to Fannie
Because your house belongs to us
I believe it’s time, too real to feel, so take it now, take it now, take it now…
Because your loan belongs to Fannie
Because your house belongs to us
Because your loan belongs to Fannie
Because your house belongs to us
Patti Smith Group - Because the night 1978 - YouTube
Apr 27, 2008 … Take me now baby here as I am Hold me close, try and understand Desire is hunger is the fire I breathe Love is a banquet on which we feed … http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xACZHv-sLCg - 142k - Cached - Similar pages
I am currently offering $325 for a short sale somewhere in LA County with the deadbeat family still living there rent free for 2 years now. I refuse to give any further details until it closes because I refuse to jinx the deal. Even the offering number is less than $10 k off plus or minus for my self-loathing of feeling I have to share this with the world in order to feel like I exist among social animals who care for each other locked in this space/time continuum.
Can you dig it like Georgie could
Now we’d like to do all the angels come.
When I find myself in times of bubbles
Mother Mary comes to me. Singing words of wisdom. Let it be.
And though their loans will pardon, their is still a credit rating
following them
Whisper words of wisdom
Let it greed.
Let it greed
Let it greed
Let it greed
Yeah let it greed
Yeah there will be foreclosure
Let the Shadenfreud be
I offer that free to any would be artists if you’d only try me out for five minutes. We could make some beautiful music
Name:Ben Jones Location:Northern Arizona, United States To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Can’t say I am anywhere near running out of hand lotion these days, even though there seem to be plenty of economic worries afloat.
March 28, 2012, 3:18 a.m. EDT
Chinese shares tumble on earnings worries
By V. Phani Kumar
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Mainland Chinese shares extended their losses in afternoon trading Wednesday on mounting concerns about earnings and an economic slowdown. The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 2.7% to end at 2,393.25, while the Shenzhen Composite Index plunged 4.1% to 909.70 in late afternoon trading. The sell-off came a day after official data showed net income at the nation’s largest industrial groups dropped 5.2% in the first two months of the year. While few sectors were spared the sell-off, mining and metal stocks were hit especially hard. Aluminum Corp. of China dropped 5.8%, Jiangxi Copper Co. fell 5.5% and Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. lost 5.6% in Shanghai.
I think they need to start building some more high rises so they can take care of all our homeless.
And the Dry bulk Index is down; What a coincidence.
As for my finances I’m all set; I’m fully invested in Austrailian real estate.
Are you sure that is a good idea? Maybe you should diversify into Vancouver.
Nah, Vancover is too pricy. Austrailia is the place to invest, there and Victor Valley.
Victor Valley may have hit a bottom. You can get an excellent house for $100K and it’s within a suicide commute from L.A. if you absolutely hate life and are willing to commute 100 miles a day to start a family.
Guaranteed demand always. This pencils out landlords.
it’s within a suicide commute from L.A. if you absolutely hate life
Sounds good!
Wish I could buy some lux residential in Aussie, but I am still sitting on an attic full of beanie babies.
Hang in there. The beanie babies will be all the rage again.
I’m poised to buy a couple Toronto condos when gold gets to $5000.
Who is left anymore these days to defend the status quo of a Wall Street landscape populated by too-big-to-fail corporations?
Bernanke: Fed helped stop another depression
By JOSH BOAK | 3/27/12 3:25 PM EDT
The subtext in Ben Bernanke’s third college lecture was clear: his Fed helped stop a second Great Depression.
Appearing before students at George Washington University on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve chairman contrasted his academic expertise—the depression—against his personal experiences.
“The Great Depression was much worse than the recent recession,” the former Princeton University professor said. “Without a forceful policy response, we would have had a much worse outcome.”
It’s a controversial claim among critics who say lax Fed oversight and loose monetary policy actually fed the housing bubble that triggered the 2008 financial collapse.
But Bernanke has used his return to the classroom to defend the central bank he now leads.
During his first two classes last week, he tore apart the gold standard and attacked claims that low interest rates had not fueled the rise in housing prices. In response, FreedomWorks, the tea party-affiliated group led by former US House Majority Leader Dick Armey, is sponsoring an event Thursday afternoon to rebut Bernanke.
If the Fed had not leapt into the crisis as the lender of last resort, Bernanke said Tuesday, the entire global economy would have melted down as was the case in 1929. “Suddenly, there was no trust whatsoever, even among the largest financial institutions,” he said.
After the panic was stemmed, the stock market and industrial production recovered much faster than they did during the depression, Bernanke told the class.
Of course, there was plenty of collateral damage. The economy dove into a sharp recession and 8.5 million Americans lost their jobs.
Bernanke claimed his hand was forced by the absence of legal and policy tools to handle the collapse.
“It was a very difficult and distasteful intervention,” he said. “There’s something fundamentally wrong with a system where companies are too big to fail…. we chose the lesser of two evils.”
…
this guy couldn’t even see the housing bubble and we are suppose to believe his BS on the depression, cmon man.
He did not choose the lesser of two evils. He made the worst possible choice. There is a price.
People will do their doctoral thesis on everything he did wrong, while he is still alive to read it.
His ego will never allow him to even acknowledge it.
Isn’t it pretty much SOP for policy makers and wannabe politicians to claim that any other approach besides their own would result in a monumental disaster?
For instance:
Powerful New Rick Santorum Ad Imagines America if Obama is Re-Elected: “Welcome to Obamaville” – Video 3/23/12
Wow. This is a powerful ad.
Rick Santorum’s Campaign is out with this new ad that takes it right to Barack Obama: “Welcome to Obamaville.” It imagines a “small American town two years from now if Obama is re-elected.” The ad shows flashes of Iran with Nuclear Weapons, and Health Care under ObamaCare with long waiting lines and poor care. Perhaps Santorum is trying to convey to Republicans that this is what we can expect from him if he is the GOP Nominee.
‘The subtext in Ben Bernanke’s third college lecture was clear: his Fed helped stop a second Great Depression.’
This is an important point. IMO the disconnect is that the GD isn’t relevant - it’s ancient history. More relevant were the stock and housing bubbles, and policy responses, in Japan. If I’m right, the Fed is not only fighting an economic scenario that doesn’t exist, but is making the same mistakes Japan’s central bank and govt did.
I’ve been researching recent Fannie Mae data, and I hope to put a post together on it. But I came across this:
http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/about-us/media/commentary/122911-fahey.html
‘The housing bubbles of the 2000’s were not a “Made in America” phenomenon. As Professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff showed in their definitive book on the history of financial crises, many countries “had their own homegrown real estate bubbles” in the last decade.’
Please pay attention to Exhibit 3: Real House Prices in Germany, Japan, and the U.S., Q1 1985 – Q3 2011. Compare Japan and the US.
‘One of the advantages that the U.S. has going for it is that its territory is large and its economy diverse. As a result, there is a certain amount of diversification in home-price patterns across the country – some areas experienced more of a bubble, others less. On the bubble side, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has called the experience in California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada – labeled the “Sand States” for their beaches and deserts – a “Perfect Housing-Market Storm.’
‘The house-price increases in the Sand States are indeed more extreme than in the United States as a whole and California comes closely behind Ireland in terms of real house-price increases.’
“…not only fighting an economic scenario that doesn’t exist, but is making the same mistakes Japan’s central bank and govt did.”
THE WEEKEND INTERVIEW
October 18, 2008
Anna Schwartz
Bernanke Is Fighting the Last War
‘Everything works much better when wrong decisions are punished and good decisions make you rich.’
…
How did we get into this mess in the first place? As in the 1920s, the current “disturbance” started with a “mania.” But manias always have a cause. “If you investigate individually the manias that the market has so dubbed over the years, in every case, it was expansive monetary policy that generated the boom in an asset.
“The particular asset varied from one boom to another. But the basic underlying propagator was too-easy monetary policy and too-low interest rates that induced ordinary people to say, well, it’s so cheap to acquire whatever is the object of desire in an asset boom, and go ahead and acquire that object. And then of course if monetary policy tightens, the boom collapses.”
The house-price boom began with the very low interest rates in the early years of this decade under former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.
“Now, Alan Greenspan has issued an epilogue to his memoir, ‘Time of Turbulence,’ and it’s about what’s going on in the credit market,” Ms. Schwartz says. “And he says, ‘Well, it’s true that monetary policy was expansive. But there was nothing that a central bank could do in those circumstances. The market would have been very much displeased, if the Fed had tightened and crushed the boom. They would have felt that it wasn’t just the boom in the assets that was being terminated.’” In other words, Mr. Greenspan “absolves himself. There was no way you could really terminate the boom because you’d be doing collateral damage to areas of the economy that you don’t really want to damage.”
Ms Schwartz adds, gently, “I don’t think that that’s an adequate kind of response to those who argue that absent accommodative monetary policy, you would not have had this asset-price boom.” Policies based on such thinking only lead to a more damaging bust when the mania ends, as they all do. “In general, it’s easier for a central bank to be accommodative, to be loose, to be promoting conditions that make everybody feel that things are going well.”
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, of all people, should understand this, Ms. Schwartz says. In 2002, Mr. Bernanke, then a Federal Reserve Board governor, said in a speech in honor of Mr. Friedman’s 90th birthday, “I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.”
“This was [his] claim to be worthy of running the Fed,” she says. He was “familiar with history. He knew what had been done.” But perhaps this is actually Mr. Bernanke’s biggest problem. Today’s crisis isn’t a replay of the problem in the 1930s, but our central bankers have responded by using the tools they should have used then. They are fighting the last war. The result, she argues, has been failure. “I don’t see that they’ve achieved what they should have been trying to achieve. So my verdict on this present Fed leadership is that they have not really done their job.”
What allows high house prices in general is a borrower who is able to borrow a large amount.
How were borrowers suddenly able to borrow larger and larger amounts than in previous years? Because lenders discovered a model which allowed them to originate those loans then sell them off, making a tidy commission. They stopped having to worry about repayment risk. So they made shoddy loans.
In effect, it was like being able to print monopoly money, then turn it in for actual currency.
“Because lenders discovered a model which allowed them to originate those loans then sell them off, making a tidy commission. They stopped having to worry about repayment risk.”
It also must have helped to know they were too big to fail, and hence due for bailouts at the moment the whole scheme collapsed.
I don’t think “too big to fail” even crossed their minds.
Why worry about 5 years from now, when you get your cash up front?
GS-fixer, the originators may not have known about too-big-to-fail, but the buyers on the secondary market certainly did. But they hedged anyway, with AIG.
AIG should have gone bankrupt instead of paying bonuses.
The Investment Banks (well, GS at at least) hedged the ones they bought for their own portfolios. They didn’t have to hedge the ones they securitized. That work doesn’t require them to own the loans at all, or if they do, then not for very long. The real secondary market buyers (pension funds in Norway) didn’t hedge because they didn’t know the bonds were going to go bad.
AIG should have gone bankrupt instead of paying bonuses.
+infinity.
“But they hedged anyway, with AIG.”
Which, BTW, proved to be TBTF.
“Because lenders discovered a model which allowed them to originate those loans then sell them off, making a tidy commission. They stopped having to worry about repayment risk.”
Isn’t this still going on? I seem to recall that the TBTF banks are still unloading garbage onto the the GSE’s, and the Fed, etc. Until the big banks are made to realize their losses, which means massive hits to their balance sheets for foolish loans, nothing will change.
Somebody here was talking about the easy money spigot having run dry, but nothing could be further from the truth. There are still 3.5% down mortgages available, and programs which allow people to borrow that measly 3.5%. And, it’s not just houses. I was just talking to a lady who works in finance at a Ford dealership. She said lenders are approving people with credit scores in the 400’s in order to move cars. Unreal.
‘Isn’t this still going on?’
Yes, and nobody gets very excited about it. Mention tarp and they blow a gasket, but the ongoing GSE loan guarantees dwarfs that.
‘Somebody here was talking about the easy money spigot having run dry, but nothing could be further from the truth.’
I’ve been trying to put a spotlight on that myself and even many HBBers don’t seem to care much. What does it mean when you have easy credit after an easy credit bubble? No one knows; it’s never happened before. Usually credit tightens, but not this time.
And, it’s not just houses. I was just talking to a lady who works in finance at a Ford dealership. She said lenders are approving people with credit scores in the 400’s in order to move cars. Unreal.
Mention this government backed automotive lending scam to the average Joe/Jane, and they go blank, maybe shrug their shoulders, “Oh well, they know what they’re doing.”
What does it mean when you have easy credit after an easy credit bubble? No one knows; it’s never happened before. Usually credit tightens, but not this time.
Ben, the answer to this seems pretty easy to guess, even if it has not happened this way before.
The easy credit bubble of the recent past was responsible for the mispricing of assets such as housing.
If easy credit is still occurring, then it is certainly causing mis-pricing of assets in the present—perhaps not as badly as at the peak of the housing bubble, but mis-priced nonetheless.
“The subtext in Ben Bernanke’s third college lecture was clear: his Fed helped stop a second Great Depression.’If I’m right, the Fed is not only fighting an economic scenario that doesn’t exist, but is making the same mistakes Japan’s central bank and govt did.”
1. I don’t buy the thesis that the FED and Japan made mistakes. The FED is using the fear of the great depression as a cover to funnel money to it’s owners, just as the bank of Japan did. The whole idea that these guys didn’t see it coming is absurd to me. The idea that they don’t know exactly what they are doing and how it will affect America is absurd to me. The guys at the top knew what and when was going to happen and how it was going to be handled. Follow the money. How did Hank Paulson handle his investments, how did Anthony Mozillo handle his investments. Who was invested in Paulson’s Hedge Fund? Which Fed Gov was purchasing Goldman Sach’s stock at the bottom? These are just the snippets we know about, my guess is the elites investments would show that a sizable percentage were in the no. Seriously this bubble could have been pricked at anytime but some people knew when it was going to happen.
Agree 100% that this was not just a US problem, but the credit bubble here created bubbles all over the world. If the US bubble hadn’t formed would we have seen such bubbles in other places, my guess is that there would have been fewer and they would have been smaller. Easy money here, created low interest rates which funneled money to other markets, it propped up manufacturing in other countries. When our bubble popped so did many of the bubbles build on top of it. Banks are Global now and have influence over many governments and central banks now work together.
‘The collapse of the Thai baht in July 1997 was followed by an unprecedented financial crisis in East Asia, from which these economies are still struggling to recover.’
‘Two characteristics common in countries that have experienced financial crises were present in a number of East Asian economies. First, financial intermediaries were not always free to use business criteria in allocating credit. In some cases, well-connected borrowers could not be refused credit; in others, poorly managed firms could obtain loans to meet some government policy objective. Hindsight reveals that the cumulative effect of this type of credit allocation can produce massive losses.’
‘Second, financial intermediaries or their owners were not expected to bear the full costs of failure, reducing the incentive to manage risk effectively. In particular, financial intermediaries were protected by implicit or explicit government guarantees against losses, because governments could not bear the costs of large shocks to the payments system (McKinnon and Pill 1997) or because the intermediaries were owned by “Ministers’ nephews” (Krugman 1998).’
‘The importance of implicit government guarantees in the most affected economies is highlighted by the generous support given to financial institutions experiencing difficulties. For example, in South Korea, the very high overall debt ratios of corporate conglomerates (400% or higher) suggest that these borrowers were ultimately counting on government support in case of adverse outcomes. This was confirmed by events in 1997, when the government encouraged banks to extend emergency loans to some troubled conglomerates which were having difficulties servicing their debts and supplied special loans to weak banks. These responses further weakened the financial position of lenders and contributed to the uncertainty that triggered the financial crisis towards the end of 1997.’
http://www.frbsf.org/econrsrch/wklyltr/wklyltr98/el98-24.html
“…in others, poorly managed
firmshouseholds could obtain loans to meet some government policy objective. Hindsight reveals that the cumulative effect of this type of credit allocation can produce massive losses.”How about crazy subprime loans to turn every U.S. household into an Ownership Society household?
when the government encouraged banks to extend emergency loans to some troubled conglomerates which were having difficulties servicing their debts and supplied special loans to weak banks. These responses further weakened the financial position of lenders..
and so here we are.
Wow, it sounds like a great article. How many thousands of people saved their bacons because they heard the voice crying out among the Ponderosas of beautiful Flagstaff. Many thousands of people saved themselves financially because there was some sort of affirmation out their in the public square that the housing bubble was not some strange mirage that might actually change the planet permanently. And of course it did but in ways we couldn’t initially imagine while it was in full swing.
The predictions here have been epic, and very few have been exactly right, but thank goodness its hear because many of you have been my sounding board for a lot of major life decisions. And thank God I’m still financially standing to some degree.
All hail mighty Ben Stolid like a Ponderosa
Not everyone is as enamored of Bernanke’s approach as Bernanke is.
March 28, 2012, 9:39 a.m. EDT
Bernanke brings bonds back from the dead
By Jon D. Markman
Suddenly, almost out of nowhere, bonds are back. Not Barry Bonds, but good ol’ investment-grade corporates and even those given-up-for-dead Treasury bonds.
It was just a week ago when the buzzards were circling around credit, especially Treasurys, declaring that a new bear market had begun because they were down for a couple of weeks. But you can never give up on skittish overseas investors’ love affair with earning a 0.2% yield on their two-year money.
Don’t be surprised if they squeeze the worrywarts with a bone-crushing rebound back to January levels so long as Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke keeps giving speeches about the weak underpinnings of the modest economic recovery.
No less a figure than Pimco co-founder Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund, was out on Tuesday with a call to action for credit. In his monthly letter, he argued that investors should not abandon bonds if total returns hover around 4% instead of 10%, adding that they should remain “critical components” of an investor’s portfolio as financial deleveraging around the world pushes down yields.
“The best way to visualize successful delevering is to recognize that investors are locked up in a financially repressive environment that reduces future returns for all assets,” he said.
(”Financial repression,” by the way, is the latest term of art for what I called yesterday “corporate socialism.” It’s the condition in which governments take the lead in directing financial return via extreme monetary and fiscal policy, rather than letting businesses and consumers duke it out — the process we old-timers nostalgically remember as “capitalism”).
…
If people appreciated the malfeasance involved in not separating deposit accounts from Wall Street’s betting operations, they would be in the streets.
The more I think about this most utterly basic reform, and the “difficulty” in enacting it, the more the corruption of government becomes apparent. The linking of deposit accounts to the betting arms is the mechanism which allows the banks to hold the economy hostage, and the mechanism which guarantees the continued flourishing of taxpayer bailouts (with handsome rewards for the executive teams) and too bit to fail. And which allows the current system to continue unchanged and unchecked.
When Iceland’s financial system collapsed, it did one thing - secure the deposit accounts and let the betting operations collapse under the bad bets.
Separate the deposit accounts from the betting arms - split them into multiple corporations - and force lenders to repayment significant repayment risk so there is no formula which allows them to game the system. If they loan goes bad, they suffer a significant net loss of money. These two reforms would lay the foundation for a much more sound financial system.
Will the FIRE sector constantly be looking for new ways to game the system? Of course. But with a strong regulatory apparatus which has the interests of the people first and foremost as its goal, they will be held in check.
“If people appreciated the malfeasance involved in not separating deposit accounts from Wall Street’s betting operations, they would be in the streets.”
Ya think so?
#OWS Updates for the Week of March 26-April 1
Posted 39 minutes ago on March 28, 2012, 11:13 a.m. EST by OccupyWallSt
A short video collection of recent #OWS actions in NYC
Occupy these Upcoming Events!
See also, our separate posts on the March 29th Anti-NDAA action and the April 1st Brooklyn Bridge Commemoration March.
Every Day in March Noon-2:00pm
POPS - People Occupying Public Space!
Now at Union Square!
OWS inspired the world by maintaining a presence in Liberty Square – creating a viral action that spread across the country and the globe. POPS brings discussion, education and fun to the Union Square occupation every day. Tweet using #ows and #CultureOcc and find a full schedule of special events, speakers and performances at pops.nycga.net. Don’t miss Bernardine Dohrn and Bill Ayers on Friday March 30!
Thursday, March 29, 5:30-8:30pm
Protest Joe “Congressman Wall Street” Crowley’s 50th Birthday Fundraiser
Grand Hyatt Hotel, 109 East 42nd Street between Park Avenue and Lexington Avenue
With more trade negotiations underway, it’s vital that we let Congressman Crowley and other Wall Street Democrats know that they will be held accountable when they sell us out to the 1%! Sponsored by TradeJustice New York Metro & Occupy Wall Street Trade Justice Working Group.
http://nycga.net/events/event/protest-joe-congressman-wall-street-crowleys-50th-b-day-fundraiser/
Thursday, March 29, 8:00pm - 10:00pm
Occupy University Horizontal Pedagogy Workshop
Public Atrium, 56th St and Madison Ave, Adjacent to Trump Tower
Sponsored by the Empowerment & Education working group. Discussion experiment/pedagogy workshop for Occupy University. Open to all. Horizontal/facilitated/consensus-model learning with a dose of problematization.
http://nycga.net/events/event/occupy-university-horizontal-pedagogy-workshop-2-2012-03-29/
Friday, March 30. 2:00pm-4:30pm
Weekly Wall Street Marches — Spring Training
Liberty Square
Start Training for May Day and Join the Spring Resistance! Marches Every Friday, 2pm in Liberty Square! Trainings, skill shares, games, and theatrics from 2:00-3:30pm followed by a march to disrupt the 4:00pm NYSE closing bell with The Peoples’ Gong. Participants are encouraged to wear athletic gear, march with their affinity group, and use the street tactics discussed prior to the march.
http://nycga.net/events/event/weekly-wall-street-marches/
Friday, March 30, 7:00pm - 10:00pm
Weekly Vigil for Solidarity with Syria
The Syrian Embassy, 820 2nd Avenue
This vigil will begin at 7pm and work towards an overnight vigil in front of the Syrian consulate, starting with a General Assembly to unite a community of solidarity behind Syria and rally together for the wants and needs of the Syrian people. We are offering this as an open forum to dialogue and educate. We will endeavor to have vigils like this every Friday until resolution is made.
http://nycga.net/events/event/weekly-vigil-for-solidarity-with-syria-2012-03-30/
Friday, March 30, 11:45pm
Rap Battle: The People of New York vs. the NYPD
Union Square, south steps
Got beef with cops for enforcing a system of racist economic inequality? This Friday you’ll get to express that beef in a public forum where you won’t be arrested, the cops will have to listen you, and (unlike the status quo) the people ALWAYS WIN!
https://facebook.com/events/373581626007714
…
I was an occasional visitor to the Occupy Tucson encampments until they got kicked out of their second location. On the positive side, the people were absolutely wonderful to talk with. There was quite a bit of, shall we say, dialogue taking place, but I found all of it to be quite respectful. Call it civil discourse at its finest.
On the negative side, I noticed that the freeloaders started to move in and overwhelm the camp. People who were much more active in the group noticed the same thing, and one of them gave me quite the earful one afternoon. Seems that on Thanksgiving weekend, free pizza was sent to the site. Wouldn’t you know it, word got out, and the free pizza eaters came from miles around.
I noticed the signs for the Occupy Ogden movement when we visited Utah family members over the holidays. Can’t say I was interested enough to drive to where the ten-or-so protestors were marching to bother making the effort.
Commies! Those occupiers need to occupy a shower and get a job (or so say the enlightened reader comments on any Denver Post article about OWS).
No Social Contract? No understanding of Western Civilization or the US Constitution’s mission? Why? Because that understanding might interfere with political dogma?
Letter: Founding Fathers set up government as a social contract for the people September 27, 2011
Saginaw News Letters Stephen Collins
I have been following, with some interest, letters from citizens who are critical of liberals, who they brand as somehow being unwilling or unable to discuss the Constitution. They have relied upon the Constitution to criticize the federal government’s regulation of taxes, finance, business, trade and the overall conduct of the economy.
…I would like to direct their attention to several passages in the Federalist Papers, unarguably the most authoritative commentary on the Constitution and powers of federal government.
…In arguing for the ratification of the Constitution, James Madison, John Jay and Alexander Hamilton identify numerous republics throughout history that failed due to the existence of various factions destructive of these political societies.
• The Federalist No. 10 reads in part, “But the most common and durable source of factions has been the various and unequal distribution of property.”
• The Federalist No. 15 reads in part, “Why has government been instituted at all? Because the passions of men will not conform to the dictates of reason and justice, without constraint.”
• The Federalist No. 26 reads in part, “And I am much mistaken, if experience has not wrought a deep and solemn conviction in the public mind, that greater energy of government is essential to the welfare and prosperity of the community.”
• The Federalist No. 36 reads in part, “Happy it is when the interest which the government has in the preservation of its own power, coincides with a proper distribution of the public burdens, and tends to guard the least wealthy part of the community from oppression!”
Our Founding Fathers wisely saw the vesting of strong power to the federal government to regulate taxes, trade, commerce and finance as essential to the survival of the new republic. Clearly, government is instituted with the intention, in large part, to protect the poor and middle classes from the excesses of private business.
It has been my observation that one of the biggest threats to our way of life is big business. The overwhelming majority of the people of this republic believe that government is an absolutely necessary bulwark against the excesses of big business, and would not favor any less involvement in regulating these. The people of this republic should remain vigilant against the recent attacks on government regulations.
The people of this republic formed a social contract with the federal union for safety and protection; its power needs to remain strong. President Obama’s recent speech correctly cited the importance of government in the history of the republic.
Stop! You’re disrupting their rugged individualist fantasy.
BTW, anybody got a quarter? Need it for the tip jar for some dumb kid’s cancer meds…
Rio, the “federal union” has gone from aiding and abetting the dark side to becoming one with the dark side! Any supposed protection of the “least wealthy part of the community from oppression” is just so much window dressing.
See yesterday’s post about the ascendancy of sociopaths in government.
‘Round here it’s the EPA- and only the EPA- that keeps the coal barons from flattening the entire eastern half of the state and turning it into a vast strip mine. A perfect example of protecting not only “least wealthy part of the community from oppression”, but also everyone downstream, too.
Regulations are democracy in action.
-Greg Palast
I love Palast. I saw him at the book fair at UCLA. He’s the last true muckraker in America, and thus basically unknown.
“…basically unknown….”
Which is a damned shame, if you ask me. His latest, Vulture’s Picnic, is a masterpiece of research and wry Elmore Leonard/Charles Bukowski-esque narrative.
Never much liked the oiligarchy to begin with, but after reading Palast’s masterful hit-job, am moved to the verge of mayhem whenever I see a BP commercial.
See yesterday’s post about the ascendancy of sociopaths in government.
FWIW, sociopaths are quite prevalent among the criminal element. And in business. So, it’s not just politics and government.
For further reading, I recommend books by Robert Hare and Martha Stout.
The fantasy is that either political party offers a real choice. It’s war, all the time, on borrowed money of course:
‘President Barack Obama is personally enamored with a recent essay written by neoconservative writer Bob Kagan, an advisor to Mitt Romney, in which Kagan argues that the idea the United States is in decline is false.’
…Kagan argues that the idea the United States is in decline is false.
I’m confident that things are looking great and getting better for the “neo-cons.” Their corruption now owns both sides of the isle in Washington DC, their bad gambles on Wall street are made good by the taxpayers, and their dubious lending on assets with phony appraisals are also guaranteed by the taxpayers. Our military is completely entrenched in the middle-east, and military spending will be the last to feel any budget cuts. It’s a win-win situation for these parasitic leeches.
“BTW, anybody got a quarter? Need it for the tip jar for some dumb kid’s cancer meds…”
If there is any proof that we are a nation of moralist phonies, it’s those tip jars. We force uninsured children to beg for medical treatment.
If there is any proof that we are a nation of moralist phonies, it’s those tip jars. We force uninsured children to beg for medical treatment.
I can remember a lady begging for money to fund her heart transplant. Her name was Jeri Pause, and I used to see her out on the University of Arizona Mall. She was literally wasting away in public view, and no, she didn’t get the transplant. She died while waiting for a heart.
I can remember a lady begging for money to fund her heart transplant. [...] She died while waiting for a heart.
I wonder what happened to the money that she collected?
Call me a cynic, but I really wonder how much of those types of collections ever goes toward the stated cause.
I wonder what happened to the money that she collected?
Three words: University Medical Center. That was the hospital that was treating her for her heart condition. They probably vacuumed up every last cent that she raised, and anything she might have had in her estate.
She was literally wasting away in public view, and no, she didn’t get the transplant. She died while waiting for a heart.
But hey, freedom is not free.
+1 Colorado….I guess some in our country just feel its better to spend the money on Tomahawk Missiles.
Indeed. Ebeneezer Scrooge would have been of us.
Ebeneezer Scrooge would have been proud of us
We also force kids to pay their bills while not forcing their elders to pay theirs.
“citizens who are critical of liberals”
“liberals” have no sense of humor. Well, maybe Steve Colbert. But the minute they get all serious about causes and the downtrodden and such, their sense of humor seems to go right out the window and then they become a buncha bluenoses with a grim determination to tell everyone what’s right and what’s wrong, what’s offensive, what’s just and unjust, how you should act and what you should say.
In other words, they become secular sanctimonious pricks, as opposed to the religious sanctimonious pricks.
Yeah, pretty much, but they don’t tend to get elected to office.
Religious sanctimonious pricks, on the other hand…
Both of the above comments are correct
Agree on that. I can’t stand either one. Extremism is extremism.
a buncha bluenoses with a grim determination to tell everyone what’s right and what’s wrong, what’s offensive, what’s just and unjust, how you should act and what you should say.
It looks like you watched the Republican debates too.
Glad to see the last half of your last sentence.
I was going to pounce on the last sentence until I didn’t have to!
Seems to me that liberals are generally predisposed to witty banter more so than the anal-retentive right.
Still, either persuasion is easily tempted into succumbing to being sanctimonious pricks!
Lighten up, asswipes of all stripes! I only want to deprive you of life-saving medical services. -
“The Federalist No. 15 reads in part, “Why has government been instituted at all? Because the passions of men will not conform to the dictates of reason and justice, without constraint.”
Yet, somehow, these same passions, when mixed with largesse and profit, will never affect those in government. Such men and women (those in government) conform to the dictates of reason and justice.
That seems to be your default viewpoint, Rio. It also is untrue.
Yet, somehow, these same passions, when mixed with largesse and profit, will never affect those in government.
The writers of the Federalist Papers were well aware of such problems. One of the main goals of the Constitution was to have the various branches of government operate as a check on each other so as to limit such problems as much as possible.
But since money will always have some influence on government- as you state- what is your solution? No government?
Whatever you do…. please stop calling these a$$wipes “founding fathers”. As if they’re the first people in history to form a govt.
There were in fact, the first to form our type of government.
Others before had various parts arranged in different ways, but our’s was unique when it was … founded.
I don’t give a faaaawk…… these clowns are no more my father than you are.
Brothers from another mother, perhaps?
One way of addressing the problem is to admit that our society is the problem, not corporations and not the governmnet.
We’ve lost our way. The same government vs corporation arguments are pointless. For all practical purposes, they are one and the same. Unfortunately, they’re alike in all the wrong ways.
And yes, there’s always been crooks, thieves, power mad zealots, etc., dating back to Rome, Visigoths, Ottomans, etc.
Our problem today is that there are so many of them, and they’re rewarded for their behavior financially, socially, stucturally, etc. That we allow crooks from Goldman to run around in our Cabinet is indicative as to what we’ve allowed to happen.
That it’s only the young who are being held financially accountable is also indicative.
Does it not strike anyone here how corrupt the powerful (i.e., older generations as a whole) have become? It’s gotten to the point that only the young are on the hook for debts…they don’t get to declare bankruptcy and “victimhood”…but their elders certainly do. All the time, it seems.
Ethics, schmethics. I know. I’m a fool.
it’s always about the money.
It’s GOOD to be the Banksta!
That seems to be your default viewpoint, Rio.
How can you assume my default viewpoint when in fact you miss my point? My point is that there IS a social contract in America between we the people and our government that has been violated. Allowing gross wealth-inequality, corporate dominance, a B.S. health-care system and off-shoring jobs are some of the violations.
The Constitution is one of the greatest proofs of the intent of the social contact.
Yes, but not necessarily your social contract, Rio.
Mandated purchases are not a social contract, unless you happen to agree with it.
Clearly, you don’t understand that.
What is the “social contract” mandated that everyone buy a Hummer? It very easily could, if Obamacare passes. Or if single-payer passes.
The social contract of The Constitution strongly favor the rights of individuals, not groups of like-minded people versus groups of other, different like-minded people.
None of your posts have given me reason to believe that you understand that.
The social contract of the USA is with and for the benefit of INDIVIDUALS. Period.
Mandated purchases are not a social contract, unless you happen to agree with it. Clearly, you don’t understand that.
Well Poser, apparently you don’t understand much if you think I ever supported mandates to buy a product from a private company.
The social contract of the USA is with and for the benefit of INDIVIDUALS. Period
Solely for individuals right? And where do you come up with your propaganda?
Of course you don’t mandate purchases of products from private companies (like insurance companies, which also is wrong).
But, of course you DO support mandated purchases from government entities, which in this country is illegal as per The Constitution.
By your thinking, a good portion (but not all) of the population could justifyably be mandated to buy a General Motors vehicle, since a part of that company is government owned.
How about everyone being mandated to by a HOUSE? How about that? Afterall, the federal government owns most of it now. So, therefore, everyone on this board should be forced to buy a house. And not necessarily the house you want, either. The house the government tells you you must buy.
There’s a reason why government-mandated purchases are illegal. Such constructs are anti-individual and anti-choice.
You do need to hoist that “social contract” sail and let us see the cloth. What is it? In your earlier reference it seemed to guarantee that noone would make less than $500 a week. That surely cannot be the contract in the constitution. They didn’t give a flip how much you earned, if you could afford food and shelter, much less for your neighbor to pay for it, IMO.
But, of course you DO support mandated purchases from government entities, which in this country is illegal as per The Constitution.
Not all. Medicare and SocSec have been deemed Constitutional. Therefore a public buy in into Medicare would be Constitutional.
See how easy that was. It didn’t hurt at all.
justifyably be mandated to buy a General Motors vehicle,
You guys like to jump the shark no?
It’s hurting 200 million people younger than age 50 with massive declines in living standards. Mission accomplished, apparently.
Who is “us guys”? Define, please.
Yet, somehow, these same passions, when mixed with largesse and profit, will never affect those in government. Such men and women (those in government) conform to the dictates of reason and justice.
The difference is that those in gov can be removed by the population, no so for corporate America. Of course the elite have perfected a propaganda machine and a funding system for politics that unfortunately has a huge influence on politics. Get rid of Citizens united and publicly finance elections, and prevent consolidation of the press. Strip some of the wealth away from teh elite and strengthen the middle class. You would see huge changes in the US over time. We were at our best when the middle class was strong and corporate America diverse.
Wrong.
Wrong.
Yes you are.
OK, so you want to have discussion on a third grade level…
OK, so you want to have discussion on a third grade level…
Yes because you’ve joined it.
(now that was funny!)
Validating.
you do know anyone else could go through the federalist papers and cherry pick 5 excerpts from which the exact opposite conclusion could be derived?
you do know anyone else could go through the federalist papers and cherry pick 5 excerpts from which the exact opposite conclusion could be derived?
My conclusion is that there IS a social contract.
So you can cherry pick 5 excerpts from the Federalist papers and prove that there is NO social contract in America between we the people and our government?
If there is no social contract, why should any kid volunteer for the military, or better yet why shouldn’t he run off to Canada if drafted?
Of course there’s a social contract. The dispute is over the terms thereof.
That is why I am out of this discussion entirely. I’d be delighted to participate once the terms we are using are clearly defined. You can use the phrase to mean anything from “government by consent of the governed” (not because God says so or by right of conquest) to a heck of a lot more than that.
That is why I am out of this discussion entirely. I’d be delighted to participate once the terms we are using are clearly defined.
Then you will never join the discussion because this is not a contract signed and notarized. The terms of the social contract were not “clearly defined” by Socrates, Hobbs, Rousseau or Locke. Or if they were partially defined they were modified to fit the time of each predecessor. This is a philosophical, “the place in history” and societal evolution issue much more than a legal issue.
For example: Is healthcare a right or privilege? I say a modern-day right as most western countries say. So why was it not in the social contract of the Constitution? Because the founders thought healthcare not to be a right? I don’t think thas was why. I think health-care was not addressed in the constitution because healthcare in the 1780’s was not a big factor in their lives in that it was very cheap and limited. How much could doctors do? Bleed you as they did George Washington before he died? Heck, doctors didn’t even wash their hands back then. There were no expensive drugs or medical procedures. The poor man’s folk healthcare might have been better than the rich man’s and most people could afford most of what was available.
This is the type of issue that the evolving social contract addresses and deals with. First the issues are dealt with on a philosophical and practical level. Then laws are made to reflect the consent of the governed.
And it is also great progress to have those unaware of the social contract acknowledge its very existence.
Puh whittle Eddie Tard…
P.S. Higher sales don’t boost prices. Rather, lower prices boost sales.
The Associated Press March 27, 2012, 10:03AM ET
Home prices fell in January in most US cities
By DEREK KRAVITZ
More from BusinessWeek
WASHINGTON
Home prices fell in January for a fifth straight month in most major U.S. cities, as modest sales increases have yet to boost prices.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index released Tuesday showed that prices dropped in January from December in 16 of 19 cities tracked.
The steepest declines were in San Francisco, Atlanta and Portland. Prices increased in Miami, Phoenix and Washington. Price information for Charlotte was delayed and therefore not included in the report.
The declines partly reflect typical offseason sales. The month-over-month data are not adjusted for seasonal factors.
Still, prices fell in 17 of the 20 cities in January compared to the same month in 2011. The group’s nationwide index of prices has fallen 34 percent since the housing bust and is now at 2002 levels.
The continued drop in prices suggests the housing market remains weak, even after the best winter for home sales in five years and steady improvement in the job market.
“Despite some positive economic signs, home prices continued to drop,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s index committee.
Eight cities — Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and Tampa, Fla. — are now back at 2000 levels or earlier. Only Denver, Detroit and Phoenix posted year-over-year increases.
It’s the price…. stupid.
Make up your mind, solid or weak.
The continued drop in prices suggests the housing market remains weak, even after the best winter for home sales in five years and steady improvement in the job market.
Mass. home sales rise in February
February home sales rose 33 percent in Massachusetts when compared to the same month a year ago, a sign that the statewide rebound in the housing market is “starting to look pretty solid,” the Warren Group reported Wednesday.
http://www.boston.com/Boston/businessupdates/2012/03/mass-home-sales-rise-february/aiQ0so0faq4jhoZPLHbSzH/index.html?p1=News_links
Both. Solid housing is selling solidly, weak housing is weakening. Numbers without fine category breakdowns are useless.
“Rather, lower price$ boost sale$.”
Olive’$ Oil
$ales/Demand$, …Down Down Down
Price$, Up$! Up$! Up$!
Eyes sense$ a conundrum
$torage, Bet$ & Bottleneck$
Phoenix did the best with an increase of a couple percent.
Yeah, sure it did. Tell us the real story in that area, Ben.
Phoenix did the best with an increase of a couple percent.
The magic of Phoenix occurs in the dead of winter and withers when the daily summer bake setting is above 100-degrees.
I thought the magic of Phoenix was the but loads of Canadians with sacks of money?
And they stay up north at their “camps” in the summer.
I thought the magic of Phoenix was the but loads of Canadians with sacks of money?
Eloy skydiving withers during the peak summer heat.
I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that the busiest months at the Phoenix area resort hotels like the Phoenician are during the winter.
I refuse to play along with the MSM semantics. House prices are stabilizing when they fall. Phoenix and Florida are further along to recovery than Massachusetts, for example. But when I see with my own eyes, hundreds of houses being bought sight unseen, in a few hours, and then I learn some of it is Canadian home equity loan money, I have doubts about prices.
It’s really not hard to understand; speculation is a sign of market weakness, not market strength. So what does wild speculation on borrowed money mean?
“MSM semantics”
“improvement” = higher housing prices
“affordable” = higher mortgage debt
“recovery” = increasing housing prices
Tha vast majority of voters — and ratings eyeballs — are homeowners, Ben. For them, rising house prices are an improvement. Disagree or not, the MSM is going with the majority.
‘the MSM is going with the majority’
DECEMBER 20, 2005
‘As if to tweak the noses of housing-sector pessimists, the November U.S. housing starts report released on Dec. 20 revealed another stellar performance: a rebound of 5.3% on the month, to a 2.123 million annual pace, from a revised 2.017 million in October (2.014 million previously). Building permits rose 2.5%, to a solid 2.155 million pace, from a 2.103 million rate in October (revised from 2.071 million). ‘
‘As some argued with strength in the October new-home sales report, the initiation of sold but unstarted homes — which is of growing importance for these monthly measures — likely contributed to strength in the figure, as did rebuilding efforts in the aftermath of Katrina.’
‘Residential construction in the quarterly GDP reports grew at a 10% rate through the first half of 2005 and is likely to post the same 10% rate in the third quarter once these figures are revised upward again in the final GDP report for the quarter. As it stands, Action Economics expects 13% real growth in residential construction in the fourth quarter, which would mark an acceleration into yearend. Virtually no evidence points to any wavering in this sector, despite pessimists’ efforts to keep finding signs of weakness.’
March 28, 2012
‘Housing prices continue to fall in the United States but that was not enough to keep home builder stocks such as KB Homes, PulteGroup and DR Horton from continuing to rise. Year to date, DR Horton is up 25.36%. KB Homes is up 43.56% for the new year. Over the same period, PulteGroup has risen 43.58%. As detailed in a previous article on, one analyst sees PulteGroup rising another 40%.’
‘Housing prices continue to fall in the United States but that was not enough to keep home builder stocks such as KB Homes, PulteGroup and DR Horton from continuing to rise.’
Home builder share prices always go up!
I refuse to play along with the MSM semantics. House prices are stabilizing when they fall.
Orwell was so correct. We are living in an era of “Newspeak”
Orwell was so correct. We are living in an era of “Newspeak”
+1 Good observation.
But when I see with my own eyes, hundreds of houses being bought sight unseen, in a few hours, and then I learn some of it is Canadian home equity loan money, I have doubts about prices.
Canadian HELOC money? Haven’t we already seen this movie, except with American HELOC money playing in the starring role?
The steepest declines were in San Francisco
I read a news report of bidding wars in bay area just last week.
There is no reason you can’t have bidding wars in areas which have recently undergone steep declines. In fact, one might argue that bidding wars coupled with homes that endlessly sit on the market with no offers are both entirely consistent with extreme price volatility. In the former case, homes priced with a listing or reserve price below market value attract multiple offers; in the latter case, a seller who is severely underwater on what he owes sets a price above market and attracts no offers.
By contrast, a stable market with widely-understood market values is unlikely to see sellers pricing their homes far off from list price.
Meant to say:
list price.
market value.
IMO the most important thing to consider is inventory and financing. Shadow inventory went from something the ‘experts’ considered a conspiracy theory, to a regular factor in even NAR reports.
‘Falling visible and shadow inventory, combined with a dearth of new-home and apartment construction during the past three years, assure that rents will continue to rise, with likely home price increases in 2012,” Yun said.’
What about financing? Yesterday I posted a story on a track coach using govt loans to bid on $300k houses with zero down.
“…from something the ‘experts’ considered a conspiracy theory,…”
I think I may be due some credit or blame for getting that discussion going, depending on which side of the issue you placed your bets.
“…with likely home price increases in 2012,” Yun said.’…”
For how many more years will the serial bottom callers have to ignore falling prices before their stopped-clock prediction for price increases will finally materialize?
I picture a dried up turnip with different business sectors all trying to draw blood off of it. There is no more money.
I read a news report of bidding wars in bay area just last week ??
Bidding wars is probably a little extreme but there have been a few stories on some Palo Alto properties getting into them…But the truth is that in many locations around the Silicon Valley, multiple offers on the same property are fairly common and just because there are multiple offers it does not necessarily mean that the final price was well above the asking price…
And people claim trickle down doesn’t work.
High Profile Family Seeking Nanny/Governess (Oyster Bay, Long Island)
High profile couple looking for a fit, active, and sports-minded live-in nanny to care for their children. The children are 12, 10, 8 year old triplets, 2.5 years, and 4 months old. The family lives in NY and the nanny quarters include a separate house in town. The family employs four nannies throughout the school year and five nannies in the summer months.
http://boston.craigslist.org/gbs/edu/2903948688.html
Debbie Dolan Sweeney is the matriarch of a horse-loving family. A director at Bethpage-based Cablevision Systems, Dolan Sweeney, 47, learned her competitive drive as a showjumper.
She twice won the prestigious Hampton Classic (1995 and ‘97). And she met husband Brian Sweeney on the horse show circuit. The couple has seven children—and an eighth on the way.
So while Debbie Dolan Sweeney won’t be able to compete at this year’s Hampton Classic, which begins August 28, her husband and four of her children will. Triplets Hellen, Sean and Corinne, each 7, will be showing at the Hampton Classic. Brendan, 2, will participate in Lead Line.
http://www.lipulse.com/sports/article/a-family-ride
Playing on their 85″ HDTV in the background:
Faux New$ Bulletin:
“Linda-the-Lunch-Lady-Live$-Lavi$hly!”
“Living wages” = socialism
Trillion dollar bailouts of failed businesses = capitalism
Ever wonder why our capitalist society sent our free market jobs to a communist country because of socialist unions?
$15/hour union janitors are *DESTROYING* this country!
LOL
Isn’t 47 a tad bit old to be having another kid?
May be not for the first child and you have been trying for years, but seventh or eighth, it’s definitely old. I read somewhere that the rich and poor mirror their behaviors. This is a perfect example.
Pretty much, except one rich person can inflict their mistakes on thousands of people whereas one poor person cannot.
Really? I had no idea that those who have assassinated world leaders were universally wealthy. Princip was rich? John Wilkes Booth was rich? This I did not know.
Be careful, turkey.
Debbie Dolan Sweeney has to be a member of the Cablevision Dolan’s. Also, owners of the NY Knicks/rangers and Madison square garden.
dolan family owns cablevison so her paycheck is probably a couple of mil a year for being daddys girl
Realtors Are Liars®
And the sky is blue too.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
Foreclosure Deal Credits Banks for Routine Efforts
In February, JPMorgan Chase donated a home to an Iraq war veteran in Bucoda, Wash., and Bank of America waived the $140,000 debt that a Florida man still owed after the sale of his foreclosed home. Over the last year, Wells Fargo has demolished about a dozen houses in Cleveland.
Banks do things like this — real estate transactions that do nothing to prevent foreclosure — all the time. But beginning this month, they can count such activities as part of their new commitment to help people stay in their homes.
That commitment comes under the landmark $25 billion foreclosure abuse settlement between the government and five major banks announced last month. The settlement promises that of the $25 billion, the banks will give $17 billion “in assistance to borrowers who have the intent and ability to stay in their homes,” according to a summary of the settlement. But more than half of that money can be used in ways that will not stop foreclosures, including some activities that are already standard bank practices.
“The $17 billion is supposed to be the teeth of this settlement,” said Neil M. Barofsky, the former inspector general for the Treasury’s bank bailout fund known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program. “And yet they are getting all this credit for practices that they do every day.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/28/business/foreclosure-deal-gives-banks-credit-for-routine-activities.html?partner=yahoofinance
Speaking of JP Morgan, is there anything to this “news” item?
U. S. media covers up
EXPLOSIVE Back Breaking News
JP Morgan-MF Global-Euro Gate Escalates
by Tom Heneghan
International Intelligence Expert
Found at - My Space.com
Sunday March 25, 2012
UNITED STATES of America - It can now be reported that the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking has new evidence showing that JP Morgan had a $200 million overdraft aka a second margin call on the London LIFFE Exchange three days before the MF Global bankruptcy fiasco was triggered.
…
Maybe…
http://news.yahoo.com/jpmorgan-corzine-assured-mf-global-transfers-155520324.html
http://go2managedfutures.com/2012/03/third-uncorrelated-investing-show-features-stanley-haar-and-mf-global-conspiracy-plus-james-koutoulas-speaking-frank-truth/
Interviews with a couple of guys with inside information about the MF Global bankruptcy.
MF global assistant treasurer pleads the 5th:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-28/mf-global-treasurer-declines-to-answer-questions-for-house-panel.html
Reminds me of a dear, deceased friend who was a philanthropist in the finest sense of the word. My friend was renowned for living very frugally so that he could donate as much money as possible.
And, oh, did he ever. A lot of local organizations really benefited from his estate.
Any-hoo, I once attended a luncheon recognizing him for funding student scholarships. He seemed a bit befuddled by all the plaudits he was getting. At one point, he looked around at the room full of people and said, “I can’t help thinking that you’re rewarding me for what I ought to have done.”
Guy would have never made it as a bankster.
Leave me alone. I’m transmitting important information to Vladimir.
Looking into his eyes, seeing his soul, like W did?
….. and what did he see?
I seem to remember reading somewhere that Obama double-crossed Vladimir on something or other, much to Vlad’s shock. I wish I could remember what it was, exactly.
Difference between Shrubbie and Bammy is, with Shrubby you knew he was gonna screw ya, he just about told you so. Bammy is all smiles and fists full of vaseline.
Lesser or the two evils or the better of the con men?
I don’t think W was smart enough to know who was going to get screwed. Cheney on the other hand…
Spot on Steve….Cheney was the Oz….
The planet is run by a buncha dipsh*ts.
Obama can’t make eye contacts. He scans faces left to right just like he does with teleprompters.
Seriously? Of all the things in the world to criticize him over you choose eye contact and teleprompter? Are you spoon fed this stuff?
Are you spoon fed this stuff?
Is this a trick question?
If it makes a Drudge headline it must be newz, right?
No person in the history has abused Teleprompters like this President. I must speak against it and you should, too.
Care to provide proof of this.
Obama has given many interviews and is well spoken and obviously knowledgeable. The teleprompter BS is to convince the neanderthals on the right that the teleprompter is the only reason Obama can speak. If it were that easy GW would not have made such an idiot of himself on so many occasions.
Obama can’t make eye contacts. He scans faces left to right just like he does with teleprompters.
I’ve heard that Obama has uncorrected far-sightedness. Which may explain his difficulties with eye contact. Guy probably needs a set of glasses, but like a lot of public figures, he’s hesitant to actually get ‘em. He’s probably worried about what glasses would do to his image.
He’s probably worried about what glasses would do to his image.
+1 Saddam Hussein had his speeches written in a huge font in order to avoid wearing glasses in public.
contact lenses??
contact lenses??
Regurgitating what I read years ago from some defector from Saddam’s inner circle prior to Desert Storm.
Pterygium(s)?
Looking for his head in your airspace, as Sister Sarah did?
What’s Sister Sarah up to these days? Must be having a real shock lately to see her non-endorsement endorsement Newt doing so well in the primary. No future as a king maker nor as a television host/actor. The bubble really popped this time.
She’d make a killing in Hollywood. DC is not Hollywood.
What’s Sister Sarah up to these days ??
She is in fall-back mode killing animals from helicopters….
The new flexible Obama will be able to do the splits on command.
Those yoga lessons can be so handy.
Some Lucky Ducky stories from across the pond:
Bloomberg - Britons see disposable incomes plunge most since 1977
“Real household disposable income fell by 1.2 percent, the Office for National Statistics said today in London … The drop in 2011 disposable income followed a 0.2 percent decline in 2010, marking the first back-to-back fall in real incomes since the early 1980s recession.”
And from the LA Times - To Britain’s metal thieves, nothing is sacred
“Like hungry locusts, metal thieves have repeatedly attacked St. Mary’s Church, swooping down on its roof in the dead of night and stripping away large sections of its Victorian era lead cladding … Thieves in Britain are ripping up railway and telephone cables, prying off manhole covers and carting away aluminum access ramps for the disabled. Children shiver in schools where heating pipes have been stolen.”
Cueing up the Smiths’ song Vicar in a Tutu, “lifting some lead off the roof of the holy name church”
Funny how poverty and unemployment are tied to petty (or not so petty) theft.
As you well know Colorado, real poverty is tied to a lot more than petty theft. The elites in Mexico don’t live in walled guarded compounds and drive around in armored cars for nothing. We are moving in that direction. When I can’t feed my family you can bet I’ll be joining the animals as well.
Agreed, but I was speaking in the context of a 1st world society that has social safety nets.
A Mexican anecdote:
My brother is a graduate of ITESM, (AKA Tecnologico de Monterrey or simply “El Tec”) which is considered to be Mexico’s top university. Tec grads are always supposed to be able to find jobs.
Anyway, a friend of my borther, also a Tec grad, was mugged. As he was handing over his wallet, he recognized his mugger, who turned out to be a classmate from El Tec. When the mugger recognized him he apologized and returned his wallet.
That a Tec grad had to resort to mugging just went to show how bad things are down there. Curiously, the Mexican gov’t crows that unemployment is only 4%. I guess their labor dept is even more creative with the numbers than our own.
Funny how the poor won’t just politely go away and die when they are no longer wanted, isn’t it?
How dare they act like that!
The Brits at least had it right once, 150 years ago. Bring back the Marshalsea debtor’s prison and lock up those deadbeats!
We’ve been watching Little Dorrit, what an absurd idea to have a prison to lock up debtors. Tax payers paying taxes to keep people who owe debts from ever being able to pay them off.
Geez, as if Britain didn’t do everything they can to get the poor onto the dole and into council flats.
Nigerian finance comes to Wall Street:
BUSINESS
Updated March 28, 2012, 7:44 a.m. ET
J.P. Morgan Was ‘Assured’ on MF Global Transfers
By SCOTT PATTERSON
MF Global Holdings Ltd. Chairman and Chief Executive Jon S. Corzine was in direct contact with J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM +0.62%) & Co. officials about a large transfer of customer funds to the bank shortly before the securities firm collapsed, according to prepared testimony from a J.P. Morgan lawyer for a House subcommittee hearing Wednesday.
The testimony by Diane Genova, deputy general counsel for J.P. Morgan, provides additional details about a transfer of $175 million in MF Global customer funds to a J.P. Morgan account on Oct. 28. That move is the subject of scrutiny as investigators hunt for clues about how MF Global firm lost about $1.6 billion in customer funds.
Ms. Genova’s testimony, which hadn’t been publicly released as of this morning, is expected to take place late this afternoon. The hearing, scheduled to begin at 2 p.m. Eastern, will be the House subcommittee’s third hearing on MF Global.
Ms. Genova told the subcommittee in her prepared testimony that J.P. Morgan discovered on Oct. 28 overdrafts in foreign-exchange clearing accounts managed by MF Global’s U.K. affiliates. Mr. Corzine and other officials at MF Global were notified about the overdrafts, she added.
MF Global assured J.P. Morgan that the overdrafts would be covered, according to Ms. Genova’s testimony.
The overdraft threatened J.P. Morgan’s ability to help fund an auction of about $4.9 billion in government and corporate debt, Ms. Genova is expected to tell lawmakers at Wednesday’s hearing. Without that funding, MF Global’s finances would have been in severe jeopardy.
“Thus, when this was raised with Mr. Corzine on Friday morning, he readily agreed that it was important for MF Global to cover the overdrafts, and he assured J.P. Morgan executives that MF Global had ample funds to cover the overdrafts,” Ms. Genova wrote in her prepared remarks.
By 11 a.m. Eastern that Friday, MF Global had transferred enough funds to cover the overdraft in the U.K.
But J.P. Morgan noticed that the transfer was tied to shifting $200 million from a customer-segregated account to an MF Global account in the U.S. In response, the New York bank determined that due to “the financial stress facing MF Global…it would be prudent and appropriate to ask MF Global to confirm that these transfers had been made in compliance” with Commodity Futures Trading Commission rules governing customer accounts, according to Ms. Genova’s testimony.
On Friday afternoon, J.P. Morgan “reached out to Mr. Corzine to explain J.P. Morgan’s understanding of how the London overdrafts had been covered by a series of transfers originating with a withdrawal of funds from a customer segregated account” and to ask for a confirmation in writing that the transfer came from MF Global’s own funds.
MF Global didn’t return a letter asking for such confirmation, she added. So J.P. Morgan contacted MF Global’s deputy general counsel, Dennis Klejna. Mr. Klejna, former head of the enforcement division of the CFTC, assured J.P. Morgan that the transfer represented excess funds in the customer accounts. The only concern, Mr. Klejna explained, was that the letter was too broad, according to Ms. Genova’s testimony.
Mr. Kejna couldn’t be immediately reached for comment. On Saturday, J.P. Morgan sent a more specific letter seeking reassurances about the fund transfer, but the bank never received the signed letter back.
…
No one is ever going to jail.
Fundamentals for gold may remain solid, but it is ripe for the picking by central banks with printing press technologies and carte blanche to trade whatever assets they please to manipulate the price.
March 28, 2012, 10:09 a.m. EDT
Gold lower after failing to touch $1,700
Analysts see support for higher prices, however
By Claudia Assis and Virginia Harrison, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold futures traded lower Wednesday, falling in step with most other commodities as the metal still reeled from failing to trade above $1,700 an ounce in the previous session.
Gold for April delivery (GCJ2 -0.68%) slipped $9, or 0.5%, to $1,675.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Stock Exchange.
The metal shot higher earlier this week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signalled U.S. interest rates would remain at current ultra-low levels for a few years.
It ended modestly lower on Tuesday, however, after being a few dollars away from the psychologically important $1,700 an ounce.
Fundamentals for gold remain solid, analysts said.
“Low interest rates and longer-term inflationary pressures should remain supportive for gold prices,” strategists at Barclays Capital said.
…
(Gold) ended modestly lower on Tuesday, however, after being a few dollars away from the psychologically important $1,700 an ounce.
The technical analysts are saying that Gold has to rise to around $2,200 or it won’t get that high.
A little plunge protection, please?
Or will the PPT keep their powder dry for tomorrow (last day of the first quarter)?
March 28, 2012, 10:06 a.m. EDT
U.S. stocks wobble after durables disappoint
By Laura Mandaro, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks edged between small gains and losses Wednesday, hemmed in by a disappointing report on durable-goods orders.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA -0.26%) fell 19 points to 13,177. The S&P 500 (SPX -0.34%) lost 3 points to 1,409. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP -0.20%) added 1.6 point to 3,122.
..
I remember when the PPT was considered tinfoil hat territory by some on the blog. But in light of the government’s overt attempts to provide price supports for home prices, food prices and influence the price of oil, why wouldn’t it intervene in the stock market?
The politicians’ main goal is not a fair and efficient allocation of resources. It is re-election. And manipulating markets which will allow for that short term goal is something that they would look upon quite fondly.
buy the dip.
Give me a big enough dip and I will.
My personal consumer confidence has an elasticity of 1: It goes up 1% for each 1% decline in the oil price.
Crude Oil - Electronic (NYMEX) May 2012
NMN: CLK2
Market open $105.23
Change -2.10 -1.96%
Volume 114,969
Mar 28, 2012 10:27 a.m.
Previous close $107.33
Day low $105.02
Day high $106.94
Open: 106.81
52 week low $76.53
52 week high $113.20
I was think in last night how the last time oil flirted with $100/bbl the price at the pump was ~$3/gallon, now it’s closer to $5/gallon.
Don’t question the invisible hand!
Isn’t it funny how the oil companies don’t try to undercut each other, in order to increase market share? The automakers finally figured this out, that it’s better to sell fewer cars if they have higher prices and hence fat profit margins.
The theory of elasticity says no. Because there is no substitute for oil, they can charge as much as they want and, at least in the short-run, demand will not falter. Cars, on the other hand, are an elastic good, (at least when you compare one brand to the next), because there are many substitutes. Car manufacturers would do well to lower their prices and increase revenue through quantity sold rather than assuming quantity demanded will not be effected by higher prices, because it will.
“Car manufacturers would do well to lower their prices and increase revenue through quantity sold rather than assuming quantity demanded will not be effected by higher prices, because it will.”
They tried that game, and many lost their shirts. Sales are 60-70% of what they used to be, yet the big three (and others) are very profitable now, even as the sales mix is shifting away from trucks.
Yeah, I’m not sure that economic theories hold a lot of water because they all depend on the whole ceteris paribus thing…
Here is my observation.
The last time gas went to 4 many people were driving 60mpg on the highway, not so with the recent rise.
Put the lobster in the pot and slowly increase the heat.
60 mpg???
Record profits, yet consumption is at a 20 year low and prices at an all time high.
Liker I said, the ONLY price the free market sets is always higher for less in return to the customer.
Consumption is at a twenty year low where? People outside the US also use gasoline.
Sorry. Meant here.
Despite the fact that the world is a global market, local prices are still affected by local conditions.
US gasoline consumption has been on a decline for 19 years. Our current increase in prices is due to one thing an done thing only: oil companies who are deliberately closing refineries and exporting oil.
Our current increase in prices is due to one thing an done thing only: oil companies who are deliberately closing refineries and exporting oil.
Like the oil refineries in and near Philadelphia, for example. Great deal of news coverage about that topic while I was back east. Suffice it to say that the locals aren’t happy.
US gasoline consumption has been on a decline for 19 years.
Plus they are exporting surplus gasoline.
Well, let’s see. Not a single new refinery ALLOWED to be built in the USA since 1979. Perhaps that’s why refineries are being closed - obsolete.
Well, let’s see again. Not a single new Nuclear power plant ALLOWED to be built since 1979. Only now are two new plants being built - 1 in Georgia and one in S.Carolina. Many nuclear plant sin the United States ate now aged 50+.
You reap what you sow.
Obsolesence followed by high prices followed by lots of finger pointing at oil companies who aren’t ALLOWED to expand.
Meanwhile, the dollar continues to lose value as the printing press stays on - yet this too is the fault of the oil industry.
Where’s all the infrastructure we were promised?
Where is the push for building thousands of nat gas facilities?
Nowhere, of course.
Still, it doesn’t occur to you that the Federal Reserve’s printing press and the devaluing dollar has nothing to do with increasing oil prices (even in light of decreasing use).
Incredible.
The Federal Reserve is NOT the free market.
The coastal elitists at the NY Times argue otherwise (but their claim of $8/week commuting costs is total BS).
http://mobile.nytimes.com/article?a=931223&f=37
$8/week? That’s two gallons, which even with 20 mpg is 40 miles. That would imply that the average RT commute is 8 miles (or less), which I find hard to believe.
I recall it being higher. Here it says closer to 16 miles:
http://askville.amazon.com/average-commuting-distance-americans/AnswerViewer.do?requestId=2554434
16 x 5 = 80 miles. So unless they are driving a Prius I don’t see how they could do it on 2 gallons. Plus if your commute is that short your mpgs will be lower due to warm up time and the higher percentage of stop and go “city driving”.
I would like to see which Census data the author looked at. I suspect his number includes the vast numbers of poor, undocumented, college kids, and others who don’t drive to work. Zeros bring down an average fast.
If they walk. The bus isn’t free.
…or bike or carpool.
It’s an Icarus market!
March 27, 2012, 3:40 p.m. EDT
Johnson: Market is starting to “stall out”
The market is “starting to stall out on us,” says Hugh Johnson, chairman of Hugh Johnson Advisors. He tells MarketWatch Radio’s Larry Kofsky that “a lot of professional investors are very worried” that we may have come too far, too fast, and that “they’re having trouble encouraging themselves to commit more money to the market.”
Cry me a river. I guess they also feel real bad about the billions they’ve made recently, as well?
retail is not buying this recovery.
retail is not buying this recovery.
+1 Many consumers are tapped-out.
Don’t worry…be happy.
Spain is the worry, not Portugal
March 21, 2012
Markets have been preoccupied with Portugal, but the real linchpin to the success of the euro project in the short term is Spain. Vincent Cignarella explains why on Markets Hub. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)
‘the real linchpin to the success of the euro project in the short term is Spain’
And next up is Italy.
Funny they are still talking about ‘the success of the euro project’, when it’s falling in on their heads.
‘Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev has been overthrown after a coup by Communist hardliners. In a televised broadcast, the eight coup plotters, who include the heads of the army, the KGB and the police, said they were saving the country from a “national catastrophe”.
I must say that I was fortunate to have been stable in one rental for 8 yrs before buying. moving is definitely the pits. Still trying to get everything out of the rental. It’s like a bad dream; it just never seems to get empty. Plus the only two days I could get help it rained like hell and the only room where I am replacing the carpeting was to be done today and it rained until 6 am today.
Worst was the other morning when I went into the garage in my PJ’s and found myself home alone locked out of the house and no cell phone. Luckily they had a doggie door for one of those little rat dog that I was able to pry up and barely stick my hand through with an extension cord. I made a loop with it and blindly tossed it in the handles direction until it caught (pull down type) and I could open the door. Great idea until I stood up with the shortened cord in hand and er locked the door again. The second time I got it right.
I hate moving because of all the stuff I’ve accumulated.
I love moving because I get rid of all the stuff that’s not important.
Sounds like a Steve Martin movie.
Moving: The Movie
Yeah you could sell that.
Serial bottom callers always manage to find a silver lining in every dark cloud housing price data release.
ECONOMY
Updated March 27, 2012, 3:11 p.m. ET
Home Prices Fall, but at a Slower Pace
By NICK TIMIRAOS
Home prices fell to new lows in January, but the rate of decline appeared to be easing, offering the latest hint that prices may be at or near a bottom.
Prices dropped 0.8% in the three-month period that ended in January, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index that tracks 20 U.S. metro areas. While that lowered the index to levels not seen since the end of 2002, the monthly decline improved from a drop of 1.1% in December and 1.3% in November.
House prices tend to weaken during the winter months, when sales activity slows and the share of “distressed” home sales, such as foreclosures, rises. After adjusting for seasonal factors, prices were flat in January compared with December.
Compared with one year ago, home prices fell 3.8% in January. That also represented an improvement over the 4.1% year-over-year decline for December.
…
I think the higher end is falling but in a lot of areas the lower end has bottomed out.
Guess what you guys….
The squad should stop listening to you nattering nabobs of negativism and listen to facebook Realtor® and buy an overpriced POS 3/1 in a marginal nabe in Denver, because inventory is dropping and prices are rising?
Go for the gusto and get a shack inBroomfield. What’s 400K when you can get a home worthy of your wonderfulness? And they aren’t making more land in Broomfield, you know?
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1350-Bellaire-St-Broomfield-CO-80020/60234165_zpid/
Broomfield, Thornton, Westminster, all examples of soulless sprawlburbia that the squad would never stoop to visiting, let alone live in. Being stuck in traffic on US 36 while en route to Rocky Mountain National Park (the squad’s *rented* back yard, leased for only $40/year) is as much time as I’ll ever be forced to spend in Broomfield…
Rocky Mountain National Park (the squad’s *rented* back yard, leased for only $40/year)
Rented?? Nah, you own that. But you still have to pay to visit it…
Broomfield, Thornton, Westminster, all examples of soulless sprawlburbia that the squad would never stoop to visiting, let alone live in
That’s probably what attracts the managerial class to live there.
But it could be worse: Aurora.
We miss our house at the north edge of Westminster. But not the location so much…just the house.
“The market is booming”
Um…. Can you give us a hint??
“But where are the buyers”
-inventory is looming,
Realtors are Liars!
Indeed!!!! :):):)
The cracks are starting to show…….
“JetBlue pilot suspended after “erratic” behavior…..”
“Flight attendant removed after rant……”
“JetBlue Flight Attendant curses, quits, makes Emergency chute exit….”
http://tinyurl.com/cvb7zah
The aviation business, for flight crews and maintenance people is becoming a bigger Charlie Foxtrot all the time. Pilots and Flight attendants are working longer hours for less money, on airplanes that are getting older and less reliable, with inspections and repairs being completed by God knows who.
In the aviation business as a whole, if a job satisfaction survey was taken, I’d be surprised if the “Totally” and “Somewhat” satisfied numbers reached into the single digits.
Fuel prices are going up, and airplane operators are compensating for it by cutting salaries.
I’ve heard many people bitch about “old, hagged out, flight attendants”. You know why they are all old? Because the 20 somethings that are smart enough to pass the tests are also smart enough to go do something else with their lives. Ditto the pilots and maintenance guys.
More/longer hours being stacked on people, in an environment that allows for ZERO errors, for less pay. Practically everyone I know in the aviation business are working part-time jobs on the side. My former boss, an ATP with several thousand hours in business jets, quit flying altogether after he got his CDL. He can make more money driving trucks, doesn’t have to get up at 3am to got to the airport and do flight planning, and he isn’t away from home 2-3-4 night a week. His story is becoming more common all the time.
The few new guys that managed to find jobs aren’t any better. Mentoring is a thing of the past. Guys with no experience and no training are being sent out to BFE to work airplanes on their own.
Start with the natural, unavoidable stresses of the job, lack of sleep due to long commutes, and add to that financial stress, and you are going to see a lot more of this in the future. Of course the FAA and NTSB will do studies and reports pointing the finger at the “irresponsible”, but nothing will be done until a bunch of people start dying.
Then, all you will hear is “nobody could see it coming”. Infrastructure isn’t just facilities and equipment, it’s also the skill and expertise to operate the equipment in a safe, proficient manner.
Watch what is happening with the Flight Attendants, commuter airline pilots/mechanics, and the Air Cargo people. They are the people getting screwed the worst, so consider them the “canaries in the coalmine”
I’ve heard many people bitch about “old, hagged out, flight attendants”. You know why they are all old? Because the 20 somethings that are smart enough to pass the tests are also smart enough to go do something else with their…
What test?
Its all about seniority. Some companies like AA, you have to have 15 years to hold a position as a Flight Attendant. In three months it will be 20 years.
That makes the youngest FA’s in their mid-40s.
My oldest daughter considered being a flight attendant for a second tier airline (Frontier). When she saw how low the pay was, she passed. It was lucky ducky wages.
I recently flew Southwest, and was struck by how happy their flight attendants seemed with their jobs. Heck, one lady was professional-quality comedian. Maybe she was doing that on the side, I don’t know.
OTOH, a former boss jumped quite a few hoops in order to get a job at Southwest. He didn’t love working weekends at the Tucson airport check-in desk, so he quit after, oh, a couple of years. Not nirvana for him after all.
BTW, I’m told, SWA has something like 13% turnover every year. Don’t know how that compares with the rest of the industry, but there it is.
I believe that pay at Southwest isn’t all that bad.
“BTW, I’m told, SWA has something like 13% turnover every year. Don’t know how that compares with the rest of the industry, but there it is.”
My observation is that their employees are younger on average, so a higher turnover might result. But you’re right about the Southwest FAs–they’re into their jobs, and it’s refreshing. ISTR reading a few years ago that their pay starts around $14/hr (though I think the actual pay is based on the number of miles in the air you work).
SWA deliberately targets as hires “very smart but disgruntled” former teachers particularly from public schools. The kinda people that loathe unions with a vengeance (and for good reason.)
It then treats them very well. Including freedom to improvise within the rules and gives them equity in the company.
This brought to you from the random department of FPSS’s “economic facts for the investment types”.
They know what they’re doing (and just for the record, I have no position in SWA not that you care.)
…. well played….. well played.
People are desperate for any kind of job and the job is willing to work them like slaves until they quit because there is only 2 million more candidates who will scoop up the job. Welcome to the new slavery fellow American paeons. We’re all in this together so we better behave now.
I stumbled upon this site a week or so ago:
http://www.dearskysteward.com/
This guy was fired from AA for this website and the exposure it gives to the dark side of the airline industry, in particular AA’s unethical business practices, (RioAmericaninBrazil: Read “completely ethical”). He’s a hoot and very committed to AA’s eventual rebirth as the majestic airline of yesteryear.
(RioAmericaninBrazil: Read “completely ethical”)
If it’s an article there I can’t find it.
See “Certificate of Demonstrated Proficiency” on the FAA website.
Back in the day before $99 NYC-LA airfares, TWA would spend six months training their cabin crews.
Eat The Young.
People were calling pilots “bus drivers” a few years ago. That’s the mindset that’s causing this and will ultimately lead to disaster.
Except for overseas flights, I’m avoiding flying at all costs these days.
http://www2.nbc17.com/news/2012/mar/27/9/woman-restrained-flight-north-carolina-ar-2095407/
“Turbulence injures three Flight Attendants…….”
“…..she hit the ceiling, and when she came down, the cart hit her…….”
http://tinyurl.com/cim55gp
As I predicted.
In 30 years we’ve gone from a situation where everyone in the industry was overpaid to a situation where everyone is underpaid.
The airlines have collectively lost money for investors for years, so no one wants to finance their planes.
And cheap oil is a thing of the past.
Air transport is going to get more dangerous, more expensive, more miserable, or all three. Fortunately we’re punting on intercity rail, so the customers will have no choice.
Sorry renters and those who are current on your mortgage - no $100,000 obama lottery for you…
————————————–
The $26 billion crapshoot
CNN Money | March 28, 2012 | BY LES CHRISTIE
Homeowners hoping the $26 billion foreclosure abuse settlement would mean big savings on their mortgages were mostly disappointed. Even though a million borrowers will have their principals slashed by as much as $100,000 or more, most are not eligible for a workout simply because the bank that issued their mortgages, didn’t hold their mortgages.
During the housing boom years of the early 2000s through 2007, about 20% of loans went into the bank’s own portfolios. The rest were sold off, either to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac or to investors.
Only loans held by the banks and some of their investors will be modified. The rest of the borrowers will be left out in the cold.
“It’s not as long a shot as winning the lottery but there’s a lot of chance involved,” said Guy Cecala of Inside Mortgage Finance.
“most are not eligible for a workout simply because the bank that issued their mortgages, didn’t hold their mortgages.”
Uh, isn’t that like … everyone?
“The rest were sold off, either to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac or to investors.”
10000 Maniacs
Because The Night lyrics
C’mon now, try n’ understand
The way you feel under their command
Work out plan? as the sun descends?
They can hurt ya now, can hurt ya now, can hurt ya now…
Because your loan belongs to Fannie
Because your house belongs to us
Because your loan belongs to Fannie
Because your house belongs to us
I believe it’s time, too real to feel, so take it now, take it now, take it now…
Because your loan belongs to Fannie
Because your house belongs to us
Because your loan belongs to Fannie
Because your house belongs to us
Patti Smith
Patti Smith Group - Because the night 1978 - YouTube
Apr 27, 2008 … Take me now baby here as I am Hold me close, try and understand Desire is hunger is the fire I breathe Love is a banquet on which we feed …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xACZHv-sLCg - 142k - Cached - Similar pages
Which lobbyist group will be the recipient of the portions of that $26B that won’t be used?
I am currently offering $325 for a short sale somewhere in LA County with the deadbeat family still living there rent free for 2 years now. I refuse to give any further details until it closes because I refuse to jinx the deal. Even the offering number is less than $10 k off plus or minus for my self-loathing of feeling I have to share this with the world in order to feel like I exist among social animals who care for each other locked in this space/time continuum.
Can you dig it like Georgie could
Now we’d like to do all the angels come.
When I find myself in times of bubbles
Mother Mary comes to me. Singing words of wisdom. Let it be.
And though their loans will pardon, their is still a credit rating
following them
Whisper words of wisdom
Let it greed.
Let it greed
Let it greed
Let it greed
Yeah let it greed
Yeah there will be foreclosure
Let the Shadenfreud be
I offer that free to any would be artists if you’d only try me out for five minutes. We could make some beautiful music